Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...

Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

Science.gov (United States)

He, Di; Wang, Jing; Dai, Tong; Feng, Liping; Zhang, Jianping; Pan, Xuebiao; Pan, Zhihua

2014-12-01

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade ( p gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Potential impacts of CCS on the CDM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakker, S; Mikunda, T.; Rivera Tinoco, R.

2011-02-01

CO2 capture and storage can ensure that stringent climate change mitigation targets are achieved more cost-effectively. However, in order to ensure a substantial role for CCS, deployment of CCS is required on a significant global scale by 2020. Currently, the CDM is the only international instrument that could provide a financial incentive for CCS in developing countries. In December 2010 it was decided that CCS could in principle be eligible under the CDM, provided a number of issues are resolved, including non-permanence, liability, monitoring and potential perverse outcomes. The latter issue relates to the concern that that CCS projects could flood the CDM market, thereby crowding out other technologies that could be considered more sustainable. This report, therefore, aims to quantify the possible impact of CCS on the CDM market, in order to assess the relevance of the CDM market objection. However, the analysis in the report is also valid for the role of CCS in other types of international support mechanisms. The first result of this study is a marginal abatement cost curve (MAC) for CCS in developing countries for 2020. Based on existing MAC studies, the IEA CCS Roadmap and an overview of ongoing and planned CCS activities, we compiled three scenarios for CCS in the power, industry and upstream sector, as shown below. The major part of the potential below $30/tCO2eq (70 - 100 MtCO2/yr) is in the natural gas processing sector. Using the MACs for the CDM market, we estimate the economic potential for CCS projects to be 4-19% of the CDM credit supply in 2020. The potential impact inclusion of CCS in the CDM may have is assessed by using several possible CER supply and demand scenarios, as well as scenarios related to market price responsiveness and the role of CDM in the post-2012 carbon market. The impact is estimated to be between $0 and $4 per tonne of CO2-eq, with three out of four scenarios indicating the lower part of this range.

Economic impact of potential NORM regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, G.E.; Fitzgibbon, T.; Karp, S.

1995-01-01

Oil and gas field wastes and sites contaminated with naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) have quickly become a focus of substantial attention by regulators both at the state and federal level. Although currently regulated in a number of states, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has indicated a desire to develop federal regulations to address management and disposal of NORM-contaminated wastes. This paper provides a brief overview of current state NORM regulations, currently available technologies for managing and disposing NORM wastes, and the cost of employing these techniques. Based on these characterizations and alternative assumptions about the volume of NORM wastes, four alternative scenarios have been developed to bracket potential future NORM requirements. These scenarios have been used is the basis for an analysis of the potential economic and supply impacts of NORM requirements on the U.S. oil and gas industry. The results illustrate that a reasonable approach to regulation that focuses only on those NORM wastes that pose a risk and allows producers to use safe, low cost disposal methods (downhole or other) would have minimal economic impacts on the oil and gas industry. A very stringent regulatory approach that covered large volumes of wastes, required the use of higher cost disposal techniques, and required extensive site clean-up activities could have a substantial economic impact, resulting in a loss of up to 20 percent of U.S. oil production and 8 percent of U.S. gas production by 2000. The costs of compliance with these alternative approaches could range from $71 million to over $14 billion annually. Between these two cases lies the opportunity for regulators to develop requirements for management and disposal of NORM wastes that will address any environmental and human health risks posed at industry sites without imposing unnecessarily costly regulations on the U.S. oil and gas E ampersand P industry

Preferred drug lists: Potential impact on healthcare economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimberly Ovsag

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Kimberly Ovsag, Sabrina Hydery, Shaker A MousaPharmaceutical Research Institute at Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, New York, USAObjectives: To analyze the implementation of Medicaid preferred drug lists (PDLs in a number of states and determine its impact on quality of care and cost relative to other segments of healthcare.Methods: We reviewed research and case studies found by searching library databases, primarily MEDLINE and EBSCOHost, and searching pertinent journals. Keywords initially included “drug lists,” “prior authorization,” “prior approval,” and “Medicaid.” We added terms such as “influence use of other healthcare services,” “quality of care,” and “overall economic impact.” We mainly used primary sources.Results: Based on our literature review, we determined that there are a number of issues regarding Medicaid PDLs that need to be addressed. Some issues include: (a the potential for PDLs to influence the utilization of other healthcare services, (b criteria used by Medicaid for determining acceptance of drugs onto a PDL, (c the effect of PDL implementation on compliance to new regimens, (d the potential effects of restricting medication availability on quality of care, (e administrative costs associated with PDLs, and (f satisfaction rates among patients and medical providers. This review highlighted expected short-term cost savings with limited degree of compromised quality of PDL implementation, but raised the concern about the potential long-term decline in quality of care and overall economic impact.Conclusions: The number of concerns raised indicates that further studies are warranted regarding both short-term cost benefits as well as potential long-term effects of Medicaid PDL implementation. Objective analysis of these effects is necessary to ensure cost-effectiveness and quality of care.Keywords: preferred drug lists, medicaid, healthcare costs, managed care

Potential Health Impacts of Bauxite Mining in Kuantan

OpenAIRE

Abdullah, Noor Hisham; Mohamed, Norlen; Sulaiman, Lokman Hakim; Zakaria, Thahirahtul Asma; Rahim, Daud Abdul

2016-01-01

Bauxite mining is not known to most Malaysian except recently due to environmental pollution issues in Kuantan, Pahang. Potential impacts are expected to go beyond physical environment and physical illness if the situation is not controlled. Loss of economic potentials, and the presence of unpleasant red dust causing mental distress, anger and community outrage. More studies are needed to associate it with chronic physical illness. While evidences are vital for action, merely waiting for a di...

Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

2016-12-01

Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

2006-01-01

likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

Potential impact of reactive vaccination in controlling cholera ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background. To contain ongoing cholera outbreaks, the World Health Organization has suggested that reactive vaccination should be considered in addition to its previous control measures. Objectives. To explore the potential impact of a hypothetical reactive oral cholera vaccination using the example of the recent ...

The Potential Impact of Quantum Computers on Society

OpenAIRE

de Wolf, Ronald

2017-01-01

This paper considers the potential impact that the nascent technology of quantum computing may have on society. It focuses on three areas: cryptography, optimization, and simulation of quantum systems. We will also discuss some ethical aspects of these developments, and ways to mitigate the risks.

The potential impact of quantum computers on society

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2017-01-01

textabstractThis paper considers the potential impact that the nascent technology of quantum computing may have on society. It focuses on three areas: cryptography, optimization, and simulation of quantum systems. We will also discuss some ethical aspects of these developments, and ways to mitigate

The seismic expression and hydrocarbon potential of subsurface impact craters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stewart, R.; Westbroek, H.H.; Lawton, D. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

1995-12-31

The seismic characteristics of meteorite impact craters and their potential as oil and gas reservoirs were discussed. Seismic data from James River, Alberta, in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin show subsurface anomalies to be meteorite impact structures. The White Valley structure in Saskatchewan has similar features and seismic anomalies indicate that it too could be a meteorite impact structure, although other possibilities have been proposed. Other impact structures in western Canada such as the Steen River structure and the Viewfield crater have or are producing hydrocarbons. 5 refs., 2 figs.

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, Kristin M.

2015-01-01

The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C under the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO). A baseline risk assessment (BRA) of current conditions is based on available characterization data and information collected at WMA C. The baseline risk assessment is being developed as a part of a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) at WMA C that is mandatory under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and RCRA corrective action. The RFI/CMS is needed to identify and evaluate the hazardous chemical and radiological contamination in the vadose zone from past releases of waste from WMA C. WMA C will be under Federal ownership and control for the foreseeable future, and managed as an industrial area with restricted access and various institutional controls. The exposure scenarios evaluated under these conditions include Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) Method C, industrial worker, maintenance and surveillance worker, construction worker, and trespasser scenarios. The BRA evaluates several unrestricted land use scenarios (residential all-pathway, MTCA Method B, and Tribal) to provide additional information for risk management. Analytical results from 13 shallow zone (0 to 15 ft. below ground surface) sampling locations were collected to evaluate human health impacts at WMA C. In addition, soil analytical data were screened against background concentrations and ecological soil screening levels to determine if soil concentrations have the potential to adversely affect ecological receptors. Analytical data from 12 groundwater monitoring wells were evaluated between 2004 and 2013. A screening of groundwater monitoring data against background concentrations and Federal maximum concentration levels was used to determine vadose zone

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singleton, Kristin M. [Washington River Protection Solutions LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

2015-01-07

The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C under the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO). A baseline risk assessment (BRA) of current conditions is based on available characterization data and information collected at WMA C. The baseline risk assessment is being developed as a part of a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) at WMA C that is mandatory under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and RCRA corrective action. The RFI/CMS is needed to identify and evaluate the hazardous chemical and radiological contamination in the vadose zone from past releases of waste from WMA C. WMA C will be under Federal ownership and control for the foreseeable future, and managed as an industrial area with restricted access and various institutional controls. The exposure scenarios evaluated under these conditions include Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) Method C, industrial worker, maintenance and surveillance worker, construction worker, and trespasser scenarios. The BRA evaluates several unrestricted land use scenarios (residential all-pathway, MTCA Method B, and Tribal) to provide additional information for risk management. Analytical results from 13 shallow zone (0 to 15 ft. below ground surface) sampling locations were collected to evaluate human health impacts at WMA C. In addition, soil analytical data were screened against background concentrations and ecological soil screening levels to determine if soil concentrations have the potential to adversely affect ecological receptors. Analytical data from 12 groundwater monitoring wells were evaluated between 2004 and 2013. A screening of groundwater monitoring data against background concentrations and Federal maximum concentration levels was used to determine vadose zone

Elucidating the Potential Biological Impact of Cellulose Nanocrystals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Camarero-Espinosa

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Cellulose nanocrystals exhibit an interesting combination of mechanical properties and physical characteristics, which make them potentially useful for a wide range of consumer applications. However, as the usage of these bio-based nanofibers increases, a greater understanding of human exposure addressing their potential health issues should be gained. The aim of this perspective is to highlight how knowledge obtained from studying the biological impact of other nanomaterials can provide a basis for future research strategies to deduce the possible human health risks posed by cellulose nanocrystals.

Genetic Evidence Highlights Potential Impacts of By-Catch to Cetaceans

Science.gov (United States)

Mendez, Martin; Rosenbaum, Howard C.; Wells, Randall S.; Stamper, Andrew; Bordino, Pablo

2010-01-01

Incidental entanglement in fishing gear is arguably the most serious threat to many populations of small cetaceans, judging by the alarming number of captured animals. However, other aspects of this threat, such as the potential capture of mother-offspring pairs or reproductive pairs, could be equally or even more significant but have rarely been evaluated. Using a combination of demographic and genetic data we provide evidence that i) Franciscana dolphin pairs that are potentially reproductive and mother-offspring pairs form temporal bonds, and ii) are entangled simultaneously. Our results highlight potential demographic and genetic impacts of by-catch to cetacean populations: the joint entanglement of mother-offspring or reproductive pairs, compared to random individuals, might exacerbate the demographic consequences of by-catch, and the loss of groups of relatives means that significant components of genetic diversity could be lost together. Given the social nature of many odontocetes (toothed cetaceans), we suggest that these potential impacts could be rather general to the group and therefore by-catch could be more detrimental than previously considered. PMID:21179542

Potential health impact of wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-05-01

In response to public health concerns about wind turbines, a study was conducted to review the scientific evidence on the potential health effects of wind turbines. Several research questions were examined, including scientific evidence on the potential health impacts of wind turbines; the relationship between wind turbine noise and health; the relationship between low frequency sound, infrasound and health; assessment of exposure to wind turbines; wind turbine health and safety hazards and Ontario wind turbine setbacks; community consultation prior to wind farm construction and data gaps and research needs. The study showed that although some people living near wind turbines reported symptoms such as dizziness, headaches, and sleep disturbance, the scientific evidence available to date does not demonstrate a direct causal link between wind turbine noise and adverse health effects. The sound level from wind turbines at common residential setbacks is not sufficient to cause hearing impairment or other direct health effects, although some people may find it annoying. 41 refs., 1 appendix.

Potential impact of husbandry practices on the welfare and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Potential impact of husbandry practices on the welfare and productivity of draught ... of such practices on the health and productivity as it relates to work hours of ... under sub-optional productive state in conjunction with stress of diseases on ...

Identifying the Potential Organizational Impact of an Educational Peer Review Program

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Kate E.; McKey, Colleen A.

2010-01-01

The literature on educational peer review (EPR) has focused on evaluating EPR's impact on faculty and/or student learning outcomes; no literature exists on the potential organizational impact. A qualitative (case study) research design explored perceptions of 17 faculty and 10 administrators within a school of nursing in an Ontario university…

Carbon Capture and Sequestration. Potential Environmental Impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnston, P.; Santillo, D. [Greenpeace Research Laboratories, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS (United Kingdom)

2003-02-01

Over the last few years, understanding of the profound implications of anthropogenically driven climate change has grown. In turn, this has fuelled research into options to mitigate likely impacts. Approaches involving the capture of carbon dioxide and its storage in geological formations, or in marine waters, have generated a raft of proposed solutions. The scale of some of these proposals is such that they will exert impacts of global significance in their own right. Proposals fall into two broad categories: (1) storage of liquid CO2 or products of reacted CO2 into intermediate/deep oceanic waters. and (2) storage of liquid CO2 into sub-seabed or terrestrial geological formations. For the most part, while the technical feasibility of these schemata has been widely explored, the same is not true of their ecological implications. In the case of deep/intermediate oceanic waters, poor baseline understanding of the associated ecosystems is a considerable impediment to any reliable predictive assessment of likely impacts of carbon dioxide storage in these systems. Disruption of marine microbiological processes and degradation of benthic ecosystems, including those with high levels of endemicity, have been identified as potentially serious impacts. Similarly, the physiology, ecology and likely responses of micro-organisms present in targeted geological formations require evaluation prior to any consideration of the use of such formations for storage of CO2. In addition, the impacts of any leakage to surface need also to be considered. Accordingly this paper explores current uncertainties and detailed informational needs related to ocean and geological storage of fossil fuel-derived CO2. Particular emphasis is placed upon the ecological impacts of these proposals in relation to existing and emergent understanding of deep water/soil ecosystems and the indeterminacies attached to this understanding.

77 FR 16205 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-20

.... The Committee is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the material research and... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is...

77 FR 42271 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-18

... comments on the potential market impact associated with the two material research and development projects... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is...

The potential impacts of sodium management on Frit Development for Coupled Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, F. C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Edwards, T. B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Peeler, D. K. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2015-06-10

In this report, Section 2.0 provides a description of sodium management and its impact on the glass waste form, Section 3.0 provides background information on phase separation, Section 4.0 provides the impact of sodium management on SB9 frit development efforts and the results of a limited scoping study investigating phase separation in potential DWPF frits, and Section 5.0 discusses potential technical issues associated with using a phase separated frit for DWPF operations.

Identifying potential environmental impacts of waste handling strategies in textile industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Yacout, Dalia M M; Hassouna, M S

2016-08-01

Waste management is a successful instrument to minimize generated waste and improve environmental conditions. In spite of the large share of developing countries in the textile industry, limited information is available concerning the waste management strategies implemented for textiles on those countries and their environmental impacts. In the current study, two waste management approaches for hazardous solid waste treatment of acrylic fibers (landfill and incineration) were investigated. The main research questions were: What are the different impacts of each waste management strategy? Which waste management strategy is more ecofriendly? Life cycle assessment was employed in order to model the environmental impacts of each waste streaming approach separately then compare them together. Results revealed that incineration was the more ecofriendly approach. Highest impacts of both approaches were on ecotoxicity and carcinogenic potentials due to release of metals from pigment wastes. Landfill had an impact of 46.8 % on human health as compared to 28 % by incineration. Incineration impact on ecosystem quality was higher than landfill impact (68.4 and 51.3 %, respectively). As for resources category, incineration had a higher impact than landfill (3.5 and 2.0 %, respectively). Those impacts could be mitigated if state-of-the-art landfill or incinerator were used and could be reduced by applying waste to energy approaches for both management systems In conclusion, shifting waste treatment from landfill to incineration would decrease the overall environmental impacts and allow energy recovery. The potential of waste to energy approach by incineration with heat recovery could be considered in further studies. Future research is needed in order to assess the implementation of waste management systems and the preferable waste management strategies in the textile industry on developing countries.

Rescue of Mitomycin C- or Psoralen-Inactivated Micrococcus Radiodurans by Additional Exposure to Radiation or Alkylating Agents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, M. Trier

1982-01-01

The processing of damaged DNA was altered in a mitomycin C-sensitive mutant (mtcA) of Micrococcus radiodurans. Even though the mutant retained resistance to 254-nm UV radiation, it did not, in contrast to the wild-type strain, show any excessive DNA degradation or cell death when incubated...

The potential impact of hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

van Ruijven, B. J.; Lamarque, J. F.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

2009-04-01

Energy models show very different trajectories for future energy systems (partly as function of future climate policy). One possible option is a transition towards a hydrogen-based energy system. The potential impact of such hydrogen economy on atmospheric emissions is highly uncertain. On the one hand, application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of local air pollutants, like SOx and NOx. On the other hand, emissions of hydrogen from system leakages are expected to change the atmospheric concentrations and behaviour (see also Price et al., 2007; Sanderson et al., 2003; Schultz et al., 2003; Tromp et al., 2003). The uncertainty arises from several sources: the expected use of hydrogen, the intensity of leakages and emissions, and the atmospheric chemical behaviour of hydrogen. Existing studies to the potential impacts of a hydrogen economy on the atmosphere mostly use hydrogen emission scenarios that are based on simple assumptions. This research combines two different modelling efforts to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. First, the potential role of hydrogen in the global energy system and the related emissions of hydrogen and other air pollutants are derived from the global energy system simulation model TIMER (van Vuuren, 2007). A set of dedicated scenarios on hydrogen technology development explores the most pessimistic and optimistic cases for hydrogen deployment (van Ruijven et al., 2008; van Ruijven et al., 2007). These scenarios are combined with different assumptions on hydrogen emission factors. Second, the emissions from the TIMER model are linked to the NCAR atmospheric model (Lamarque et al., 2005; Lamarque et al., 2008), in order to determine the impacts on atmospheric chemistry. By combining an energy system model and an atmospheric model, we are able to consistently explore the boundaries of both hydrogen use, emissions and impacts on atmospheric chemistry. References: Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T

76 FR 29728 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement and Notice of Potential Floodplain...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-23

... socioeconomic impacts associated with the project, including delivery of feed materials and distribution of... potential impacts from the generation, treatment, storage, and management of hazardous materials and other... impacts from construction of project facilities; Traffic: Potential impacts from the construction and...

The potential impacts of biomass feedstock production on water resource availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, K C; Hunt, P G; Cantrell, K B; Ro, K S

2010-03-01

Biofuels are a major topic of global interest and technology development. Whereas bioenergy crop production is highly dependent on water, bioenergy development requires effective allocation and management of water. The objectives of this investigation were to assess the bioenergy production relative to the impacts on water resource related factors: (1) climate and weather impact on water supplies for biomass production; (2) water use for major bioenergy crop production; and (3) potential alternatives to improve water supplies for bioenergy. Shifts to alternative bioenergy crops with greater water demand may produce unintended consequences for both water resources and energy feedstocks. Sugarcane and corn require 458 and 2036 m(3) water/m(3) ethanol produced, respectively. The water requirements for corn grain production to meet the US-DOE Billion-Ton Vision may increase approximately 6-fold from 8.6 to 50.1 km(3). Furthermore, climate change is impacting water resources throughout the world. In the western US, runoff from snowmelt is occurring earlier altering the timing of water availability. Weather extremes, both drought and flooding, have occurred more frequently over the last 30 years than the previous 100 years. All of these weather events impact bioenergy crop production. These events may be partially mitigated by alternative water management systems that offer potential for more effective water use and conservation. A few potential alternatives include controlled drainage and new next-generation livestock waste treatment systems. Controlled drainage can increase water available to plants and simultaneously improve water quality. New livestock waste treatments systems offer the potential to utilize treated wastewater to produce bioenergy crops. New technologies for cellulosic biomass conversion via thermochemical conversion offer the potential for using more diverse feedstocks with dramatically reduced water requirements. The development of bioenergy

The Impact of Biopsy on Human Embryo Developmental Potential during Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danilo Cimadomo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis and Screening (PGD/PGS for monogenic diseases and/or numerical/structural chromosomal abnormalities is a tool for embryo testing aimed at identifying nonaffected and/or euploid embryos in a cohort produced during an IVF cycle. A critical aspect of this technology is the potential detrimental effect that the biopsy itself can have upon the embryo. Different embryo biopsy strategies have been proposed. Cleavage stage blastomere biopsy still represents the most commonly used method in Europe nowadays, although this approach has been shown to have a negative impact on embryo viability and implantation potential. Polar body biopsy has been proposed as an alternative to embryo biopsy especially for aneuploidy testing. However, to date no sufficiently powered study has clarified the impact of this procedure on embryo reproductive competence. Blastocyst stage biopsy represents nowadays the safest approach not to impact embryo implantation potential. For this reason, as well as for the evidences of a higher consistency of the molecular analysis when performed on trophectoderm cells, blastocyst biopsy implementation is gradually increasing worldwide. The aim of this review is to present the evidences published to date on the impact of the biopsy at different stages of preimplantation development upon human embryos reproductive potential.

Quantifying impacts of nitrogen use in European agriculture on global warming potential.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vries, de W.; Kros, J.; Reinds, G.J.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

2011-01-01

This paper summarizes current knowledge on the impacts of changes of nitrogen (Nr) use in agriculture on the global warming potential (GWP) by its impact on carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from agricultural and terrestrial nonagricultural systems and from

Environmental Impacts of Transportation to the Potential Repository at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.L.; Best, R.; Bolton, P.; Adams, P.

2002-01-01

The Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada analyzes a Proposed Action to construct, operate, monitor, and eventually close a geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. As part of the Proposed Action, the EIS analyzes the potential impacts of transporting commercial and DOE spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste to Yucca Mountain from 77 sites across the United States. The analysis includes information on the comparative impacts of transporting these materials by truck and rail and discusses the impacts of building a rail line or using heavy-haul trucks to move rail casks from a mainline railroad in Nevada to the site. This paper provides an overview of the analyses and the potential impacts of these transportation activities. The potential transportation impacts were looked at from two perspectives: transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste by legal-weight truck or by rail on a national scale and impacts specific to Nevada from the transportation of these materials from the State borders to the Yucca Mountain site. In order to address the range of impacts that could result from the most likely modes, legal-weight truck and rail, the EIS employed two analytical scenarios--mostly legal-weight truck and mostly rail. Estimated national transportation impacts were based on 24 years of transportation activities. Approximately 8 fatalities could occur from all causes in the nationwide general population from incident-free transportation activities of the mostly legal-weight truck scenario and about 4 from the mostly rail scenario. The analysis examined the radiological consequences under the maximum foreseeable accident scenario and also overall accident risk. The overall accident risk over the 24 year period would be about 0.0002 latent cancer fatality for

Potential Health Impacts of Bauxite Mining in Kuantan.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Noor Hisham; Mohamed, Norlen; Sulaiman, Lokman Hakim; Zakaria, Thahirahtul Asma; Rahim, Daud Abdul

2016-05-01

Bauxite mining is not known to most Malaysian except recently due to environmental pollution issues in Kuantan, Pahang. Potential impacts are expected to go beyond physical environment and physical illness if the situation is not controlled. Loss of economic potentials, and the presence of unpleasant red dust causing mental distress, anger and community outrage. More studies are needed to associate it with chronic physical illness. While evidences are vital for action, merely waiting for a disease to occur is a sign of failure in prevention. All responsible agencies should focus on a wider aspect of health determinants rather than merely on the occurrence of diseases to act and the need to emphasize on sustainable mining to ensure health of people is not compromised.

Potential impacts of alien freshwater crayfish in South Africa | de ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The habitat preferences and life history characteristics of four alien species of freshwater crayfish (Cherax tenuimanus, C. destructor, C. quadricarinatus and Procambarus clarkii) are reviewed. The potential impact of these species on South African freshwater ecosystems is assessed and the desirability of allowing their ...

The potential for dams to impact lowland meandering river floodplain geomorphology.

Science.gov (United States)

Marren, Philip M; Grove, James R; Webb, J Angus; Stewardson, Michael J

2014-01-01

The majority of the world's floodplains are dammed. Although some implications of dams for riverine ecology and for river channel morphology are well understood, there is less research on the impacts of dams on floodplain geomorphology. We review studies from dammed and undammed rivers and include influences on vertical and lateral accretion, meander migration and cutoff formation, avulsion, and interactions with floodplain vegetation. The results are synthesized into a conceptual model of the effects of dams on the major geomorphic influences on floodplain development. This model is used to assess the likely consequences of eight dam and flow regulation scenarios for floodplain geomorphology. Sediment starvation downstream of dams has perhaps the greatest potential to impact on floodplain development. Such effects will persist further downstream where tributary sediment inputs are relatively low and there is minimal buffering by alluvial sediment stores. We can identify several ways in which floodplains might potentially be affected by dams, with varying degrees of confidence, including a distinction between passive impacts (floodplain disconnection) and active impacts (changes in geomorphological processes and functioning). These active processes are likely to have more serious implications for floodplain function and emphasize both the need for future research and the need for an "environmental sediment regime" to operate alongside environmental flows.

The Potential for Dams to Impact Lowland Meandering River Floodplain Geomorphology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip M. Marren

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The majority of the world's floodplains are dammed. Although some implications of dams for riverine ecology and for river channel morphology are well understood, there is less research on the impacts of dams on floodplain geomorphology. We review studies from dammed and undammed rivers and include influences on vertical and lateral accretion, meander migration and cutoff formation, avulsion, and interactions with floodplain vegetation. The results are synthesized into a conceptual model of the effects of dams on the major geomorphic influences on floodplain development. This model is used to assess the likely consequences of eight dam and flow regulation scenarios for floodplain geomorphology. Sediment starvation downstream of dams has perhaps the greatest potential to impact on floodplain development. Such effects will persist further downstream where tributary sediment inputs are relatively low and there is minimal buffering by alluvial sediment stores. We can identify several ways in which floodplains might potentially be affected by dams, with varying degrees of confidence, including a distinction between passive impacts (floodplain disconnection and active impacts (changes in geomorphological processes and functioning. These active processes are likely to have more serious implications for floodplain function and emphasize both the need for future research and the need for an “environmental sediment regime” to operate alongside environmental flows.

Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea; Geerlofs, Simon H.

2014-09-30

In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biological processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.

Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

2016-12-01

The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

The Impact Of A Liberalised Trade Regime On The Potential For ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review ... of agricultural products and how this has impacted on agricultural value addition potential. ... from agricultural imports resulting in declining demand and sales, market share and profitability.

Climate change: the potential impact on occupational exposure to pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Gatto, Maria Pia; Cabella, Renato; Gherardi, Monica

2016-01-01

This study investigates the possible influence of global climate change (GCC) on exposure to plant protection products (PPP) in the workplace. The paper has evaluated the main potential relationships between GCC and occupational exposure to pesticides, by highlighting how global warming might affect their future use and by reviewing its possible consequence on workers' exposure. Global warming, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution and proliferation of weeds, the impact of already present insect pests and pathogens and the introduction of new infesting species, could cause a changed use of pesticides in terms of higher amounts, doses and types of products applied, so influencing the human exposure to them during agricultural activities. GCC, in particular heat waves, may also potentially have impact on workers' susceptibility to pesticides absorption. Prevention policies of health in the workplace must be ready to address new risks from occupational exposure to pesticide, presumably different from current risks, since an increased use may be expected.

Switchgrass-Based Bioethanol Productivity and Potential Environmental Impact from Marginal Lands in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xun Zhang

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Switchgrass displays an excellent potential to serve as a non-food bioenergy feedstock for bioethanol production in China due to its high potential yield on marginal lands. However, few studies have been conducted on the spatial distribution of switchgrass-based bioethanol production potential in China. This study created a land surface process model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate GIS (Geographic Information System-based (GEPIC model coupled with a life cycle analysis (LCA to explore the spatial distribution of potential bioethanol production and present a comprehensive analysis of energy efficiency and environmental impacts throughout its whole life cycle. It provides a new approach to study the bioethanol productivity and potential environmental impact from marginal lands based on the high spatial resolution GIS data, and this applies not only to China, but also to other regions and to other types of energy plant. The results indicate that approximately 59 million ha of marginal land in China are suitable for planting switchgrass, and 22 million tons of ethanol can be produced from this land. Additionally, a potential net energy gain (NEG of 1.75 x 106 million MJ will be achieved if all of the marginal land can be used in China, and Yunnan Province offers the most significant one that accounts for 35% of the total. Finally, this study obtained that the total environmental effect index of switchgrass-based bioethanol is the equivalent of a population of approximately 20,300, and a reduction in the global warming potential (GWP is the most significant environmental impact.

Potential health and environmental impacts attributable to the nuclear and coal fuel cycles: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gotchy, R.L.

1987-06-01

Estimates of mortality and morbidity are presented based on present-day knowledge of health effects resulting from current component designs and operations of the nuclear and coal fuel cycles, and anticipated emission rates and occupational exposure for the various fuel cycle facilities expected to go into operation during the next decade. The author concluded that, although there are large uncertainties in the estimates of potential health effects, the coal fuel cycle alternative has a greater health impact on man than the uranium fuel fycle. However, the increased risk of health effects for either fuel cycle represents a very small incremental risk to the average individual in the public for the balance of this century. The potential for large impacts exists in both fuel cycles, but the potential impacts associated with a runaway Greenhouse Effect from combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal, cannot yet be reasonably quantified. Some of the potential environmental impacts of the coal fuel cycle cannot currently be realistically estimated, but those that can appear greater than those from the nuclear fuel cycle. 103 refs., 1 fig., 18 tabs

Potential impact of enhanced practice efficiency on endoscopy waiting times.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Harewood, G C

2009-06-01

With the growing demand on endoscopy services, optimising practice efficiency has assumed increasing importance. Prior research has identified practice changes, which increase the efficiency in endoscopy. In this study, the potential impact of these practice changes on the current and projected future endoscopy waiting times at our institution was assessed.

Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-06-10

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

Potential impact of fireworks on respiratory health

Science.gov (United States)

Gouder, Caroline; Montefort, Stephen

2014-01-01

The world-wide use of fireworks with their consequent detrimental effect on the air quality is widely recognized with elevated ambient air levels of particulate matter and its several metallic components and gases identified in several studies carried out during such events. Exposed individuals may be at risk following inhalation of such produced pollutants. This review focuses on the impact of fireworks on air quality and the potential effect of fireworks on the respiratory system of healthy individuals as well as those suffering from underlying respiratory diseases, particularly asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This applies not only to spectators including children but also to pyrotechnicians themselves. An extensive Medline search revealed that a strong evidence of the impact of fireworks on respiratory health is lacking in susceptible as well as healthy individuals with no formal studies on COPD or asthma, other than a few case reports in the latter. The implementation of global strategies to control the use of fireworks and hence improve air quality could possibly reduce their likely detrimental effect on human respiratory health in exposed individuals, but clearly a more targeted research is needed. PMID:25378846

International funding agencies: potential leaders of impact evaluation in protected areas?

Science.gov (United States)

Craigie, Ian D; Barnes, Megan D; Geldmann, Jonas; Woodley, Stephen

2015-11-05

Globally, protected areas are the most commonly used tools to halt biodiversity loss. Yet, some are failing to adequately conserve the biodiversity they contain. There is an urgent need for knowledge on how to make them function more effectively. Impact evaluation methods provide a set of tools that could yield this knowledge. However, rigorous outcome-focused impact evaluation is not yet used as extensively as it could be in protected area management. We examine the role of international protected area funding agencies in facilitating the use of impact evaluation. These agencies are influential stakeholders as they allocate hundreds of millions of dollars annually to support protected areas, creating a unique opportunity to shape how the conservation funds are spent globally. We identify key barriers to the use of impact evaluation, detail how large funders are uniquely placed to overcome many of these, and highlight the potential benefits if impact evaluation is used more extensively. © 2015 The Author(s).

The Lure of Casino Gambling and Its Potential Impact on College Students in Mississippi.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, E. Ann; Burroughs, Susie W.; Dabit, Jean S.; Hambrick, Rosalind S.; Theriot, Patricia B.

1997-01-01

Investigates the lure and potential impact of casino gambling on college students in Mississippi. Findings suggest that casino gambling may significantly impact college students in regard to financial management, alcohol consumption, academic progress, and behavioral changes. (MKA)

Potential and impacts of renewable energy production from agricultural biomass in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Tingting; McConkey, Brian; Huffman, Ted; Smith, Stephen; MacGregor, Bob; Yemshanov, Denys; Kulshreshtha, Suren

2014-01-01

Highlights: • This study quantifies the bioenergy production potential in the Canadian agricultural sector. • Two presented scenarios included the mix of market and non-market policy targets and the market-only drivers. • The scenario that used mix of market and policy drivers had the largest impact on the production of bioenergy. • The production of biomass-based ethanol and electricity could cause moderate land use changes up to 0.32 Mha. • Overall, agricultural sector has a considerable potential to generate renewable energy from biomass. - Abstract: Agriculture has the potential to supply considerable amounts of biomass for renewable energy production from dedicated energy crops as well as from crop residues of existing production. Bioenergy production can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by using ethanol and biodiesel to displace petroleum-based fuels and through direct burning of biomass to offset coal use for generating electricity. We used the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture to estimate the potential for renewable energy production from biomass, the impacts on agricultural production, land use change and greenhouse gas emissions. We explored two scenarios: the first considers a combination of market incentives and policy mandates (crude oil price of $120 bbl −1 ; carbon offset price of $50 Mg −1 CO 2 equivalent and policy targets of a substitution of 20% of gasoline by biomass-based ethanol; 8% of petroleum diesel by biodiesel and 20% of coal-based electricity by direct biomass combustion), and a second scenario considers only carbon offset market incentives priced at $50 Mg −1 CO 2 equivalent. The results show that under the combination of market incentives and policy mandates scenario, the production of biomass-based ethanol and electricity increases considerably and could potentially cause substantial changes in land use practices. Overall, agriculture has considerable potential to

75 FR 26275 - Notice of Lodging of Proposed Consent Decree

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-11

... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of the Interior; the State of Washington; the.... 9607(a); section 311 of the Clean Water Act (CWA), 33 U.S.C. 1321; section 1002(b) of the Oil Pollution Act (OPA), 33 U.S.C. 2702(b); and the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA), RCW 70.105D. Under the proposed...

Potential Impact of Diet on Treatment Effect from Anti-TNF Drugs in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Vibeke; Hansen, Axel Kornerup; Heitmann, Berit Lilienthal

2017-01-01

We wanted to investigate the current knowledge on the impact of diet on anti-TNF response in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), to identify dietary factors that warrant further investigations in relation to anti-TNF treatment response, and, finally, to discuss potential strategies for such invest...... inflammation and potentially impact treatment response to anti-TNF drugs. Further studies using hypothesis-driven and data-driven strategies in prospective observational, animal and interventional studies are warranted.......We wanted to investigate the current knowledge on the impact of diet on anti-TNF response in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), to identify dietary factors that warrant further investigations in relation to anti-TNF treatment response, and, finally, to discuss potential strategies......% CI: 1.73-4.31, p impact of diet on anti-TNF treatment response for clinical use is scarce. Here we propose a mechanism by which Western style diet high in meat and low in fibre may promote colonic...

The impact of potential political security level on international tourism

Science.gov (United States)

Young-Rae Kim; Chang Huh; Seung Hyun Kim

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of potential political security in an effort to fill in two foregoing research gaps in international tourism. To investigate the relationship between political security and international tourism, a simple regression model was employed. Secondary data were collected from a variety of sources, such as international...

Coffee: biochemistry and potential impact on health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Iziar A; Clifford, Michael N; Lean, Michael E J; Ashihara, Hiroshi; Crozier, Alan

2014-08-01

This review provides details on the phytochemicals in green coffee beans and the changes that occur during roasting. Key compounds in the coffee beverage, produced from the ground, roasted beans, are volatile constituents responsible for the unique aroma, the alkaloids caffeine and trigonelline, chlorogenic acids, the diterpenes cafestol and kahweol, and melanoidins, which are Maillard reaction products. The fate of these compounds in the body following consumption of coffee is discussed along with evidence of the mechanisms by which they may impact on health. Finally, epidemiological findings linking coffee consumption to potential health benefits including prevention of several chronic and degenerative diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disorders, diabetes, and Parkinson's disease, are evaluated.

Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2017-01-01

The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

2017-06-01

Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

Creative potential: mental well-being impact assessment of the Liverpool 2008 European capital of culture programme.

Science.gov (United States)

West, H M; Scott-Samuel, A

2010-04-01

Culture has a number of potential impacts upon health and well-being. This project was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of the Liverpool 2008 European Capital of Culture programme upon mental well-being, so that positive effects can be maximized and negative impacts reduced, in order that health and well-being are promoted and inequalities are reduced. A mental well-being impact assessment (MWIA) toolkit has been developed, and was piloted in this study. MWIA uses a sequence of procedures designed to systematically assess the effect of projects, programmes and policies upon people's mental well-being and health. The MWIA toolkit was used to explore the potential positive and negative impacts on mental well-being of a sample of projects and policies from the European Capital of Culture programme. This was achieved by asking stakeholders to answer a series of questions, holding participative workshops, constructing a community profile and reviewing the research literature. Recommendations were developed which aim to enhance the impact of the programme on people's mental well-being. As expected, both positive and negative impacts of the European Capital of Culture programme on mental well-being were identified. Fourteen themes were identified as emerging from the workshops, screening and reviewing the research evidence. Based on these data, 33 recommendations were developed by the project steering group and have been presented to the Liverpool Culture Company. The process of conducting the assessment, particularly its participatory nature and its awareness-raising role, had impacts upon mental well-being. The findings demonstrate the potential for the Culture Company programme to have a profound impact upon mental well-being, and highlight areas which could be addressed to optimize the impact of the programme. 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential carbon impacts of smart grid development in six European countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Darby, S. [Lower Carbon Futures, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Stroembaeck, J. [VaasaETT Global Energy Think Tank, Itaemerenkatu 5, 2nd floor, 00180 Helsinki (Finland); Wilks, M. [Poyry Management Consulting, King Charles House, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1JD (United Kingdom)

2013-11-15

This paper examines reports on work carried out for the European Commission to devise a methodology for estimating the potential impact of smart grids on carbon emissions. It first identifies functionalities that enable carbon benefits to be realised. Each functionality on the demand side is assumed to be mirrored on the supply side, as when dynamic peak shifting 'replaces' flexible peak generation. Metrics are developed to describe the state of markets and to estimate customer response to demand response initiatives. Quantitative analysis identifies where the greatest scope for emissions reduction lies, while qualitative assessment indicates where to expect more or less impact from smart grid deployment. The impact of smart grid functionalities by 2020 is then modelled for six representative EU markets (Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, Portugal and Spain), using a detailed pan-European market model and also a high-level ancillary services model. Three scenarios are developed: baseline, in which no smart grid rollout is assumed; feasible, based on what could be achievable in the light of technology developments and with supportive legislation; and an intermediate expected scenario, in which new technologies are introduced but nothing else changes. The findings indicate the potential for emissions reductions by 2020. They also show that the potential is very unlikely to be reached without regulatory support for user engagement in demand response and demand reduction, along with enabling technology and programmes. Development of regulatory frameworks that allow full advantage to be taken of the new technologies emerges as a challenge for smart grid development.

Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriticos, Darren J; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J; Cook, David C; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Stephens, Andréa E A; Watt, Michael S

2013-01-01

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darren J Kriticos

Full Text Available Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas, T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M. The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

Methods for evaluating potential impacts to aquatic receptors at a metal-contaminated superfund site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattemer-Frey, H.A.; Quinlan, R.E.; Krieger, G.R.

1994-01-01

An ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for a metals mining site in the midwestern United States. Chemicals of potential concern were shown to be heavy metals associated with mine wastes and with base metal ore deposits that are characteristic of this area. Environmental receptors were identified by considering the relevant exposure pathways and the potential or known occurrence of species exposed via those pathways. Selection of key receptor species was designed to minimize the possibility that other species would be more exposed than the key species themselves and to include representation of sensitive organisms present at the subsites. In addition, an EPA-approved method was use to developed site-specific ambient water quality criteria. Ecological impacts were assessed using two complimentary approaches. First, potential chronic impacts were assessed by applying the toxicity quotient approach (i.e., a comparison of the measured concentration of site-related metals in surface water with available health-based criteria). Secondly, semi-quantitative comparative ecology data were used to obtain to provide a direct measure of impacts to key species. Results from these two approaches were used to provide a direct measure of impacts to key species. Results from these two approaches were used to obtain a realistic picture of actual and potential risks associated with exposure by key species to mining-related metals. This paper discusses the uncertainties associated with both methods and presents a method for interpreting disparate and sometimes confusing ecological data using the results from a case study

Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Le Bihan Guillaume

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

Impact of vegetation variability on potential predictability and skill of EC-Earth simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weiss, Martina; Hurk, Bart van den; Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

2012-12-15

Climate models often use a simplified and static representation of vegetation characteristics to determine fluxes of energy, momentum and water vapour between surface and lower atmosphere. In order to analyse the impact of short term variability in vegetation phenology, we use remotely-sensed leaf area index and albedo products to examine the role of vegetation in the coupled land-atmosphere system. Perfect model experiments are carried out to determine the impact of realistic temporal variability of vegetation on potential predictability of evaporation and temperature, as well as model skill of EC-Earth simulations. The length of the simulation period is hereby limited by the availability of satellite products to 2000-2010. While a realistic representation of vegetation positively influences the simulation of evaporation and its potential predictability, a positive impact on 2 m temperature is of smaller magnitude, regionally confined and more pronounced in climatically extreme years. (orig.)

China Refrigerator Information Label: Specification Development and Potential Impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fridley, David; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Aden, Nathaniel; Lin, Jiang; Jianhong, Cheng; Sakamoto, Tomoyuki

2008-02-01

In the last five years, China's refrigerator market has grown rapidly, and now urban markets are showing signs of saturation, with ownership rates in urban households reaching 92%. Rural markets continue to grow from a much lower base. As a result of this growth, the Chinese government in 2006 decided to revise the refrigerator standards and its associated efficiency grades for the mandatory energy information label. In the Chinese standards process, the efficiency grades for the information label are tied to the minimum standards. Work on the minimum standards revision began in 2006 and continued through the first half of 2007, when the draft standard was completed under the direction of the China National Institute of Standardization (CNIS). Development of the information label grades required consideration of stakeholder input, continuity with the previous grade classification, ease of implementation, and potential impacts on the market. In this process, CLASP, with the support of METI/IEEJ, collaborated with CNIS to develop the efficiency grades, providing technical input to the process, comment and advice on particular technical issues, and evaluation of the results. After three months of effort and three drafts of the final grade specifications, this work was completed. In addition, in order to effectively evaluate the impact of the label on China's market, CLASP further provided assistance to CNIS to collect data on both the efficiency distribution and product volume distribution of refrigerators on the market. The new information label thresholds to be implemented in 2008 maintain the approach first adopted in 2005 of establishing efficiency levels relative to the minimum standard, but increased the related required efficiency levels by 20% over those established in 2003 and implemented in 2005. The focus of improvement was on the standard refrigerator/freezer (class 5), which constitutes the bulk of the Chinese market. Indeed, the new

Potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R; Perham, Craig; French-McCay, Deborah P; Balouskus, Richard

2018-04-01

Sea ice decline is anticipated to increase human access to the Arctic Ocean allowing for offshore oil and gas development in once inaccessible areas. Given the potential negative consequences of an oil spill on marine wildlife populations in the Arctic, it is important to understand the magnitude of impact a large spill could have on wildlife to inform response planning efforts. In this study we simulated oil spills that released 25,000 barrels of oil for 30 days in autumn originating from two sites in the Chukchi Sea (one in Russia and one in the U.S.) and tracked the distribution of oil for 76 days. We then determined the potential impact such a spill might have on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their habitat by overlapping spills with maps of polar bear habitat and movement trajectories. Only a small proportion (1-10%) of high-value polar bear sea ice habitat was directly affected by oil sufficient to impact bears. However, 27-38% of polar bears in the region were potentially exposed to oil. Oil consistently had the highest probability of reaching Wrangel and Herald islands, important areas of denning and summer terrestrial habitat. Oil did not reach polar bears until approximately 3 weeks after the spills. Our study found the potential for significant impacts to polar bears under a worst case discharge scenario, but suggests that there is a window of time where effective containment efforts could minimize exposure to bears. Our study provides a framework for wildlife managers and planners to assess the level of response that would be required to treat exposed wildlife and where spill response equipment might be best stationed. While the size of spill we simulated has a low probability of occurring, it provides an upper limit for planners to consider when crafting response plans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Environmental characterization to assess potential impacts of thermal discharge to the Columbia River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neitzel, D.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Page, T.L.; Greager, E.M.

1990-01-01

Laboratory and field studies were conducted to assess the potential impact of the N-Reactor thermal plume on fish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. Discharge water temperatures were measured over a range of river flows and reactor operating conditions. Data were mathematically modeled to define spatial and thermal characteristics of the plume. Four species of Columbia River fish were exposed to thermal conditions expected in the plume. Exposed fish were subjected to predators and disease organisms to test for secondary effects from thermal stress. Spatial and temporal distribution of anadromous fish in the river near N-Reactor were also evaluated to define location relative to the plume. Potential thermal exposures were insufficient to kill or injure fish during operation of N-Reactor. These studies demonstrate that characterization of hydrological conditions and thermal tolerance can adequately assess potential impacts of a thermal discharge to fish

Potential impact of licensee default on cleanup of TMI-2. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, J.O.; Saltzman, J.

1980-11-01

Financial repercussions of the accident at Three Mile Island Unit 2 on the ability of the Licensee, Metropolitan Edison Co., to complete cleanup of the facility are examined. Potential impacts of licensee default on cleanup and alternatives to minimize the potential of bankruptcy are discussed. Specific recommendations are made regarding steps the Nuclear Regulatory Commission might take in keeping with its regulatory functions and its mission to protect the public health and safety

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

Science.gov (United States)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Testing and injury potential analysis of rollovers with narrow object impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Steven E; Forrest, Stephen; Herbst, Brian; Hayden, Joshua; Orton, Tia; Sances, Anthony; Kumaresan, Srirangam

2004-01-01

Recent statistics highlight the significant risk of serious and fatal injuries to occupants involved in rollover collisions due to excessive roof crush. The government has reported that in 2002. Sports Utility Vehicle rollover related fatalities increased by 14% to more than 2400 annually. 61% of all SUV fatalities included rollovers [1]. Rollover crashes rely primarily upon the roof structures to maintain occupant survival space. Frequently these crashes occur off the travel lanes of the roadway and, therefore, can include impacts with various types of narrow objects such as light poles, utility poles and/or trees. A test device and methodology is presented which facilitates dynamic, repeatable rollover impact evaluation of complete vehicle roof structures with such narrow objects. These tests allow for the incorporation of Anthropomorphic Test Dummies (ATDs) which can be instrumented to measure accelerations, forces and moments to evaluate injury potential. High-speed video permits for detailed analysis of occupant kinematics and evaluation of injury causation. Criteria such as restraint performance, injury potential, survival space and the effect of roof crush associated with various types of design alternatives, countermeasures and impact circumstances can also be evaluated. In addition to presentation of the methodology, two representative vehicle crash tests are also reported. Results indicated that the reinforced roof structure significantly reduced the roof deformation compared to the production roof structure.

Assessing the Potential Impacts of Innovative New Policy Proposals on Poverty in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Wimer

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This article provides estimates of the potential anti-­poverty impacts of eight proposals presented in this double issue of RSF. Using the 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey and the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Supplemental Poverty Measure, we first discuss the simulation approach taken for each proposal and then provide a consistent set of poverty estimates across proposals that include reductions in the poverty and deep poverty rates and the poverty gap; demographic differences; and net direct government costs. Anti-­poverty impacts are largest for the most costly proposals, but less costly and more targeted proposals still have substantial potential impacts for key subgroups.

Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Effects of CCS techniques and ocean acidification on zooplankton are under-studied. • Vulnerable zooplankton are meso-, bathypelagic and vertically migrating species. • Impacts include impaired calcification, reproduction, development and survival. • Need for modelling studies combining physico-chemical with ecological impacts. -- Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO 2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO 2 /pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle

Synergistic impact of sonic-tenside on biomass disintegration potential: Acidogenic and methane potential studies, kinetics and cost analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamilarasan, K; Arulazhagan, P; Rani, R Uma; Kaliappan, S; Banu, J Rajesh

2018-04-01

An exploration into the symbiotic impact of sonic-tenside (SDBS - sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate) on biomass disintegration potential and to reduce the energy consumption was studied. At optimized condition (specific energy input 9600 kJ/kg TS; SDBS dosage 0.07 g/g SS), higher percentage of biomass lysis and solids reduction (23.9% and 19.8%) was obtained in blended sonic-tenside disintegration (STD), than sonic disintegration (SD) (17.6% and 9.8%). The bioacidogenic potential (BAP) assay in terms of volatile fatty acids (VFA) production (722 mg/L) was found to be higher for STD, in comparison to SD (350 mg/L). The impact of STD on anaerobic digestion was evident from its methane yield (0.239 g/g COD), higher than SD (0.182 g/g COD). A monetary evaluation of the present study provides a net gain of 2 USD/ton for STD, indicating the profitability of the technique. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2727-S Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Storage Facility clean closure evaluation report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luke, S.N.

1994-01-01

This report presents the analytical results of 2727-S NRDWS facility closure verification soil sampling and compares these results to clean closure criteria. The results of this comparison will determine if clean closure of the unit is regulatorily achievable. This report also serves to notify regulators that concentrations of some analytes at the site exceed sitewide background threshold levels (DOE-RL 1993b) and/or the limits of quantitation (LOQ). This report also presents a Model Toxics Control Act Cleanup (MTCA) (WAC 173-340) regulation health-based closure standard under which the unit can clean close in lieu of closure to background levels or LOQ in accordance with WAC 173-303-610. The health-based clean closure standard will be closure to MTCA Method B residential cleanup levels. This report reconciles all analyte concentrations reported above background or LOQ to this health-based cleanup standard. Regulator acceptance of the findings presented in this report will qualify the TSD unit for clean closure in accordance with WAC 173-303-610 without further TSD unit soil sampling, or soil removal and/or decontamination. Nondetected analytes require no further evaluation

Potential Impacts of Organic Wastes on Small Stream Water Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Kaushal, S. S.; Groffman, P. M.; Findlay, S. E.; Fischer, D. T.; Burke, R. A.; Molinero, J.

2005-05-01

We monitored concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO) and other parameters in 17 small streams of the South Fork Broad River (SFBR) watershed on a monthly basis for 15 months. The subwatersheds were chosen to reflect a range of land uses including forested, pasture, mixed, and developed. The SFBR watershed is heavily impacted by organic wastes, primarily from its large poultry industry, but also from its rapidly growing human population. The poultry litter is primarily disposed of by application to pastures. Our monthly monitoring results showed a strong inverse relationship between mean DOC and mean DO and suggested that concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), DOC, and the trace gases nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide are impacted by organic wastes and/or nutrients from animal manure applied to the land and/or human wastes from wastewater treatment plants or septic tanks in these watersheds. Here we estimate the organic waste loads of these watersheds and evaluate the impact of organic wastes on stream DOC and alkalinity concentrations, electrical conductivity, sediment potential denitrification rate and plant stable nitrogen isotope ratios. All of these water quality parameters are significantly correlated with watershed waste loading. DOC is most strongly correlated with total watershed waste loading whereas conductivity, alkalinity, potential denitrification rate and plant stable nitrogen isotope ratio are most strongly correlated with watershed human waste loading. These results suggest that more direct inputs (e.g., wastewater treatment plant effluents, near-stream septic tanks) have a greater relative impact on stream water quality than more dispersed inputs (land applied poultry litter, septic tanks far from streams) in the SFBR watershed. Conductivity, which is generally elevated in organic wastes, is also significantly correlated with total watershed waste loading suggesting it may be a useful indicator of overall

Developments since 2005 in understanding potential environmental impacts of CO2 leakage from geological storage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jones, D.G.; Beaubien, S.E.; Blackford, J.C.; Foekema, E.M.; Lions, J.; Vittor, de C.; West, J.M.; Widdicombe, S.; Hauton, C.; Queiros, A.M.

2015-01-01

This paper reviews research into the potential environmental impacts of leakage from geological storage of CO2 since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in 2005. Possible impacts are considered on onshore (including drinking water aquifers) and offshore

Exploring the potential impacts of tourism development on social and ecological change in the Solomon Islands.

Science.gov (United States)

Diedrich, Amy; Aswani, Shankar

2016-11-01

Pacific Island communities may be vulnerable to negative impacts of economic development, which is often considered a strategy for reducing vulnerability to environmental change. Studies that evaluate potential impacts of economic development in isolated communities may be inaccurate to only focus on asking people to anticipate impacts of phenomena they have had minimal exposure to. We used an open-ended approach to evaluate how communities in the Solomon Islands perceived change, and used this information to anticipate potential impacts of the government's plans to develop tourism. Our results showed mostly negative expectations of change, particularly socio-cultural, which was perceived as being driven by diminishing social capital, foreign influence, and economic development. Despite minimal exposure, locals supported tourism and had more positive expectations of change associated with this activity. Our findings emphasize the need for locally appropriate planning to ensure intended positive impacts of tourism and other forms of economic development.

Assessment of urgent impacts of greenhouse gas emissions—the climate tipping potential (CTP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

2014-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change receives much focus today. This impact is however often considered only in terms of global warming potential (GWP), which does not take into account the need for staying below climatic target levels, in order to avoid...... passing critical climate tipping points. Some suggestions to include a target level in climate change impact assessment have been made, but with the consequence of disregarding impacts beyond that target level. The aim of this paper is to introduce the climate tipping impact category, which represents...... as on the chosen climatic target level and background scenario for atmospheric GHG concentration development. In order to enable direct application in life cycle assessment (LCA), CTP characterisation factors are presented for the three main anthropogenic GHGs, CO2, CH4 and N2O.The CTP metric distinguishes...

Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

2009-12-10

On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a

Acting Globally: Potential Carbon Emissions Mitigation Impacts from an International Standards and Labelling Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McNeil, Michael A; Letschert, Virginie E.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Egan, Christine

2009-05-29

This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of an international initiative designed to support and promote the development and implementation of appliances standards and labelling programs throughout the world. As part of previous research efforts, LBNL developed the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), an analysis framework that estimates impact potentials of energy efficiency policies on a global scale. In this paper, we apply this framework to an initiative that would result in the successful implementation of programs focused on high priority regions and product types, thus evaluating the potential impacts of such an initiative in terms of electricity savings and carbon mitigation in 2030. In order to model the likely parameters of such a program, we limit impacts to a five year period starting in 2009, but assume that the first 5 years of a program will result in implementation of 'best practice' minimum efficiency performance standards by 2014. The 'high priority' regions considered are: Brazil, China, the European Union,India, Mexico and the United States. The products considered are: refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting (both fluorescent and incandescent), standby power (for consumer electronics) and televisions in the residential sector, and air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings. In 2020, these regions and enduses account for about 37percent of global residential electricity and 29percent of electricity in commercial buildings. We find that 850Mt of CO2 could be saved in buildings by 2030 compared to the baseline forecast.

A Measure of the Potential Impact of Hospital Community Health Activities on Population Health and Equity.

Science.gov (United States)

Begun, James W; Kahn, Linda M; Cunningham, Brooke A; Malcolm, Jan K; Potthoff, Sandra

2017-12-13

Many hospitals in the United States are exploring greater investment in community health activities that address upstream causes of poor health. Develop and apply a measure to categorize and estimate the potential impact of hospitals' community health activities on population health and equity. We propose a scale of potential impact on population health and equity, based on the cliff analogy developed by Jones and colleagues. The scale is applied to the 317 activities reported in the community health needs assessment implementation plan reports of 23 health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota metropolitan area in 2015. Using a 5-point ordinal scale, we assigned a score of potential impact on population health and equity to each community health activity. A majority (50.2%) of health care organizations' community health activities are classified as addressing social determinants of health (level 4 on the 5-point scale), though very few (5.4%) address structural causes of health equity (level 5 on the 5-point scale). Activities that score highest on potential impact fall into the topic categories of "community health and connectedness" and "healthy lifestyles and wellness." Lower-scoring activities focus on sick or at-risk individuals, such as the topic category of "chronic disease prevention, management, and screening." Health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area vary substantially in the potential impact of their aggregated community health activities. Hospitals can be significant contributors to investment in upstream community health programs. This article provides a scale that can be used not only by hospitals but by other health care and public health organizations to better align their community health strategies, investments, and partnerships with programming and policies that address the foundational causes of population health and equity within the communities they serve.

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

The Potential for Altmetrics to Measure Other Types of Impact in Scientific Production: Academic and Social Impact Dynamics in Social Media and Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Maricato, João de Melo; Vilan Filho, Jayme Leiro

2018-01-01

Introduction: Altmetrics is an area under construction, with a potential to study the impacts of academic products from social media data. It is believed that altmetrics can capture social and academic impacts, going beyond measures obtained using bibliometric and scientometric indicators. This research aimed to analyse aspects, characteristics…

Whole-slide imaging in pathology: the potential impact on PACS

Science.gov (United States)

Horii, Steven C.

2007-03-01

Pathology, the medical specialty charged with the evaluation of macroscopic and microscopic aspects of disease, is increasingly turning to digital imaging. While the conventional tissue blocks and glass slides form an "archive" that pathology departments must maintain, digital images acquired from microscopes or digital slide scanners are increasingly used for telepathology, consultation, and intra-facility communication. Since many healthcare facilities are moving to "enterprise PACS" with departments in addition to radiology using the infrastructure of such systems, some understanding of the potential of whole-slide digital images is important. Network and storage designers, in particular, are very likely to be impacted if a significant number of such images are to be moved on, or stored (even temporarily) in, enterprise PACS. As an example, a typical commercial whole-slide imaging system typically generates 15 gigabytes per slide scanned (per focal plane). Many of these whole-slide scanners have a throughput of 1000 slides per day. If that full capacity is used and all the resulting digital data is moved to the enterprise PACS, it amounts to 15 terabytes per day; the amount of data a large radiology department might generate in a year or two. This paper will review both the clinical scenarios of whole-slide imaging as well as the resulting data volumes. The author will emphasize the potential PACS infrastructure impact of such huge data volumes.

Supporting C2 Research and Evaluation: An Infrastructure and its Potential Impact

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-01

Potential Impact,” Empirical Software Engineering, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 405-435, 2005. http://sir.unl.edu [16] J. O. Engene , Terrorism in Western...Evaluation and Conference: Proceedings of the 3rd-6th DARPA Workshops, Morgan Kaufman Publishers, 1996. … [16] J. O. Engene , Terrorism in Western Europe

Potential Impact of Planned Andean Dams on the Amazon Fluvial Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Forsberg, B.; Melack, J. M.; Dunne, T.; Barthem, R. B.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Sorribas, M.; Silva, U. L., Jr.

2016-12-01

Increased energy demand has led to plans for building 151 new dams in the western Amazon, mostly in the Andes Region. Historical data and simulation scenarios were used to explore potential impacts above and below six of the largest storage dams planned for the region. These impacts included: 1) reduction in the downstream sediment supply 2) reduction in the downstream nutrient supply, 3) attenuation of the downstream flood pulse and 4) increased greenhouse gas emissions. Together, the six dams are expected to reduce the total downstream supply of sediments, total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) from the Andes by 66, 65 and 49%, respectively. These large reductions in sediment and nutrient supplies will have major impacts on channel geomorphology, floodplain fertility and aquatic productivity. These impacts are expected to be greatest close to the dams but could also extend to the central Amazon floodplain and delta regions. The attenuation of the downstream flood pulse following impoundment is expected to alter the survival, phenology and growth patterns of floodplain vegetation and result in lower fish yields in the downstream regions closest to the dams. Greenhouse gas emissions above and below the dams are expected to increase, contributing to significantly higher regional and global emissions for dams. Gas fired power plants are suggested as a cleaner, less impactful alternative to meeting regional energy demands.

Influence of different gaps among the split targets with gradient potential to the discharge effects generated by hypervelocity impact

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Enling; Zhao, Liangliang; Han, Yafei; Zhang, Qingming; Wang, Ruizhi; He, Liping; Liu, Shuhua

2018-04-01

Due to the actual situation of spacecraft surface' charging, such as convex corners, weld line, whalebone and a multiple-interfaces with different materials, all these are main factors leading to uneven charging of spacecraft surface, even creating gradient potential. If the charging spacecraft surface is impacted by debris or micrometeor, discharge effect induced by impacting will pose a serious threat to spacecraft in orbit. So realizing spacecraft charging surface with different potential differences and grasping discharge characteristics are a decisive importance at the different experimental conditions in laboratory. To simulate the spacecraft surface with a gradient potential in laboratory, spacecraft surface is split into different parts, which different gaps reserved in 2 adjacent surface is added resistance to create different potential surfaces, and the high potential surface as a impact target in the split targets. Charging circuit system realizing different gradient potential and discharge test system are built by ourselves, combining with two-stage light gas gun loading system, six sets of experiments have been performed about hypervelocity impact on 2A12 aluminum split targets with gradient potentials. In the experiments, gaps of 2A12 aluminum target are the same among different parts in every experiments, the gaps of the split targets are 2mm, 3mm, 5mm, 7mm and 10mm in the experiments, respectively. And the applied voltage is 300V in all the experiments and high-potential 2A12 aluminum plate as the impact target. The experiments have been performed at the impact velocity of about 3km/s and the incidence angles of 60o and 90o (between projectile flying trajectory and target plane), respectively. Voltage probe and current probes are used for acquiring discharge voltages and currents during the process of the impact. The experimental results showed that the discharge induced by impact plasma were generated among high and low-potential target by forming

Influence of different gaps among the split targets with gradient potential to the discharge effects generated by hypervelocity impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enling Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the actual situation of spacecraft surface’ charging, such as convex corners, weld line, whalebone and a multiple-interfaces with different materials, all these are main factors leading to uneven charging of spacecraft surface, even creating gradient potential. If the charging spacecraft surface is impacted by debris or micrometeor, discharge effect induced by impacting will pose a serious threat to spacecraft in orbit. So realizing spacecraft charging surface with different potential differences and grasping discharge characteristics are a decisive importance at the different experimental conditions in laboratory. To simulate the spacecraft surface with a gradient potential in laboratory, spacecraft surface is split into different parts, which different gaps reserved in 2 adjacent surface is added resistance to create different potential surfaces, and the high potential surface as a impact target in the split targets. Charging circuit system realizing different gradient potential and discharge test system are built by ourselves, combining with two-stage light gas gun loading system, six sets of experiments have been performed about hypervelocity impact on 2A12 aluminum split targets with gradient potentials. In the experiments, gaps of 2A12 aluminum target are the same among different parts in every experiments, the gaps of the split targets are 2mm, 3mm, 5mm, 7mm and 10mm in the experiments, respectively. And the applied voltage is 300V in all the experiments and high-potential 2A12 aluminum plate as the impact target. The experiments have been performed at the impact velocity of about 3km/s and the incidence angles of 60o and 90o (between projectile flying trajectory and target plane, respectively. Voltage probe and current probes are used for acquiring discharge voltages and currents during the process of the impact. The experimental results showed that the discharge induced by impact plasma were generated among high and low-potential

Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Switching Branded Medications to Generics

Science.gov (United States)

Straka, Robert J.; Keohane, Denis J.; Liu, Larry Z.

2017-01-01

Switching branded to generic medications has become a common cost-containment measure. Although this is an important objective for health care systems worldwide, the impact of this practice on patient outcomes needs to be carefully considered. We reviewed the literature summarizing the potential clinical and economic consequences of switching from branded to generic medications on patient outcomes. A literature search of peer-reviewed articles published 2003–2013 using key words of “generic switching” or “substitution” was conducted using PubMed, OvidSP, and ScienceDirect. Of 30 articles identified and reviewed, most were related to the diseases of the central nervous system, especially epilepsy. Based on our review, potential impacts of switching fell into 3 broad categories: patient attitudes and adherence, clinical and safety outcomes, and cost and resource utilization. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative to branded products, this may not always be the case. Specifically, several studies suggested that switching may negatively impact medication adherence, whereas other studies found that generic switching was associated with poorer clinical outcomes and more adverse events. In some instances, switching accomplished cost savings but did so at increased total cost of care because of increased physician visits or hospitalizations. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative, mandatory generic switching may lead to unintended consequences, especially in certain therapeutic areas. Although further study is warranted, based on our review, it may be medically justifiable for physicians and patients to retain the right to request the branded product in certain cases. PMID:26099048

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2014-01-01

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Tourists’ Perception of Haze Pollution and the Potential Impacts on Travel: Reshaping the Features of Tourism Seasonality in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiping Zhang

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Haze pollution has worsened and has received close attention by news agencies in the past two years. This type of environmental pollution might have a great effect on tourism image and the entire tourism industry of a destination. This study aimed to reveal the potential impacts of haze pollution on the tourism industry. Based on a case study in Beijing using questionnaires for potential tourists, awareness of haze pollution, impacts of haze pollution on travel and attitudes toward the impacts were discussed. The results indicated that haze pollution has a considerable potential impact on travel, and there are distinct differences among travel elements and tourism market segments. Due to its impacts, haze pollution could be taken into account in tourists’ decision-making processes, causing a portion of potential tourists to cancel tourism plans. As a result, tourist arrivals to similar destinations could decrease by a small margin, but the most significant impact could be on the temporal distribution of tourist arrivals, namely tourism seasonality, due to tourists’ “avoiding” psychology.

Potential Environmental and Human Health Impacts of Rechargeable Lithium Batteries in Electronic Waste

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Daniel Hsing Po; Chen, Mengjun; Ogunseitan, Oladele A.

2013-01-01

Rechargeable lithium-ion (Li-ion) and lithium-polymer (Li-poly) batteries have recently become dominant in consumer electronic products because of advantages associated with energy density and product longevity. However, the small size of these batteries, the high rate of disposal of consumer products in which they are used, and the lack of uniform regulatory policy on their disposal means that lithium batteries may contribute substantially to environmental pollution and adverse human health impacts due to potentially toxic materials. In this research, we used standardized leaching tests, life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and hazard assessment models to evaluate hazardous waste classification, resource depletion potential, and toxicity potentials of lithium batteries used in cellphones. Our results demonstrate that according to U.S. federal regulations, defunct Li-ion batteries are classified hazardous due to their lead (Pb) content (average 6.29 mg/L; σ = 11.1; limit 5). However, according to California regulations, all lithium batteries tested are classified hazardous due to excessive levels of cobalt (average 163 544 mg/kg; σ = 62 897; limit 8000), copper (average 98 694 mg/kg; σ = 28 734; limit 2500), and nickel (average 9525 mg/kg; σ = 11 438; limit 2000). In some of the Li-ion batteries, the leached concentrations of chromium, lead, and thallium exceeded the California regulation limits. The environmental impact associated with resource depletion and human toxicity is mainly associated with cobalt, copper, nickel, thallium, and silver, whereas the ecotoxicity potential is primarily associated with cobalt, copper, nickel, thallium, and silver. However, the relative contribution of aluminum and lithium to human toxicity and ecotoxicity could not be estimated due to insufficient toxicity data in the models. These findings support the need for stronger government policy at the local, national, and international levels to encourage recovery, recycling, and

A review of potential tsunami impacts to the Suez Canal

Science.gov (United States)

Finkl, C.; Pelinovsky, E.

2012-04-01

Destructive tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean and Red seas, induced by earthquakes and/or volcanic activity, pose potential hazards to docked seaport shipping and fixed harbor infrastructure as well as to in-transit international shipping within the Suez Canal. Potential vulnerabilities of the Suez Canal to possible tsunami impacts are reviewed by reference to geological, historical, archaeoseismological, and anecdotal data. Tsunami catalogues and databases compiled by earlier researchers are perused to estimate potential return periods for tsunami events that could affect directly the Suez Canal and its closely associated operational infrastructures. Analysis of these various records indicates a centurial return period, or multiples thereof, for long-wave repetition that could generally affect the Nile Delta. It is estimated that tsunami waves 2 m high would have a breaking length about 5 km down Canal whereas a 10 m wave break would occur about 1 km into the Canal. Should a tsunami strike the eastern flanks of the Nile Delta, it would damage Egypt's maritime infrastructure and multi-national commercial vessels and military ships then using the Canal.

Bioethanol development in China and the potential impacts on its agricultural economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiu, Huanguang; Huang, Jikun; Yang, Jun [Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jia 11, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing 100101 (China); Rozelle, Scott [Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California 95305 (United States); Zhang, Yuhua; Zhang, Yanli [Institute of Rural Energy and Environmental Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, No. 41, Maizidian Street, Chaoyang, Beijing 100026 (China); Zhang, Yahui [Center of International Cooperative, Ministry of Agriculture of China, No. 55, Nongzhan Beilu, Chaoyang, Beijing 100026 (China)

2010-01-15

China is now the third largest bioethanol producer in the world after the United State and Brazil. The overall goals of this paper are to provide an overview of China's current bioethanol program, its future trend, and the likely impacts on its agricultural economy in the future. The analysis shows that China has developed an ambitious long-run biofuel program with a series of financial and institutional supports. While there are several potential feedstock crops available for bioethanol production, lack of land for feedstock production is one of major constraints in China's bioethanol expansion. The results show that although China's bioethanol expansion will have little impacts on overall agricultural prices in international markets, it will have significant impacts on the prices, productions, and trade of those energy crops being used for bioethanol production in China. (author)

HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE PRESENCE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF WATERBORNE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS

Science.gov (United States)

As an integral part of our continuing research in environmental quality assessment approaches, we have developed a variety of passive integrative sampling devices widely applicable for use in defining the presence and potential impacts of a broad array of contaminants. The semipe...

Climate and land-use change impacts on potential solar photovoltaic power generation in the Black Sea region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunderson, I.; Goyette, S.; Gago-Silva, A.; Quiquerez, L.; Lehmann, A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The solar resource is sufficient to provide PV power at suitable locations within the Black Sea catchment. • Climate change will not significantly impact the solar resource, although uncertainty exists. • Land-use change will significantly impact potential PV power, although socio-economic factors will have more importance. • It is important to strengthen regional cooperation for the integration of renewable energy resources. - Abstract: Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon that has recently been greatly impacted by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One of the main contributing sectors to GHG emissions is the energy sector, due to its high dependency on fossil fuels. Renewable energy systems, notably solar energy, can be an effective climate change mitigation alternative. Photovoltaic (PV) technology provides an interesting method to produce electricity through a virtually infinite renewable resource at the human time scale: solar radiation. This study evaluates the current and future solar energy potential through the use of grid-connected PV power plants at the scale of countries within the Black Sea catchment. Simulated data are used to determine potential change in climate and land-use according to two different development scenarios. Incident solar radiation flux from re-analyses, spatial interpolation, and the application of the Delta change method are used to assess the current and future solar resource potential within this catchment. Potential sites suitable for PV power plants are selected following a Fuzzy logic approach, and thus the total potential solar energy through PV power generation can be determined. Results show that climate change will have little impact on the solar radiation resource, while land-use change induces more variability. However, regardless of the scenario followed, the solar energy potential is sufficient to provide an interesting contribution to the electricity generation mix of

Shared Solar. Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brockway, Anna M. [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Ulrich, Elaine [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-07

This report provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape, the impact that a given shared solar program’s structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Optimization of a Distillation Unit In Terms of Potential Environmental Impact and Economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alhassan Salami Tijani; Ramzan, N.

2013-01-01

Process energy integration and continuous improvement of process technology are increasing issues to ensure profitability of chemical productions. These objectives are increasingly important due to long-term environmental impact of energy degradation, such as resource depletion, emissions and the release of waste heat. The earlier energy conservation, process economics and environmental aspects are integrated into the process development, the easier and less expensive it is to improve the process design. In this work different distillation process design alternatives have been considered with respect to evaluations of process economics and potential environmental impacts. Optimum design alternatives are analyzed related to these objectives. A multi-criteria decision making technique such as (Analytic Hierarchy Process) AHP is applied for ranking the alternatives. This method reveals that the heat pump distillation unit which has the highest score of 52 % is the best alternative when compare with base case. In terms of the effluent streams the base case has a less potential environmental impact (PEI) compared with heat pump. The lower total PEI/ kg (7.45E-01) of the base case illustrates that the material utilization efficiency of the base case is better than the heat pump whose PEI/ kg is 8.14E-01. (author)

Shared Solar. Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brockway, Anna M. [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Washington, DC (United States); Ulrich, Elaine [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Washington, DC (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-01

This report provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape and the impact that a given shared solar program’s structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Optical potential approach to the electron-atom impact ionization threshold problem

Science.gov (United States)

Temkin, A.; Hahn, Y.

1973-01-01

The problem of the threshold law for electron-atom impact ionization is reconsidered as an extrapolation of inelastic cross sections through the ionization threshold. The cross sections are evaluated from a distorted wave matrix element, the final state of which describes the scattering from the Nth excited state of the target atom. The actual calculation is carried for the e-H system, and a model is introduced which is shown to preserve the essential properties of the problem while at the same time reducing the dimensionability of the Schrodinger equation. Nevertheless, the scattering equation is still very complex. It is dominated by the optical potential which is expanded in terms of eigen-spectrum of QHQ. It is shown by actual calculation that the lower eigenvalues of this spectrum descend below the relevant inelastic thresholds; it follows rigorously that the optical potential contains repulsive terms. Analytical solutions of the final state wave function are obtained with several approximations of the optical potential.

An analysis of potential impacts to the groundwater monitoring networks in the Central Plateau. Revision 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

This report presents the results of an evaluation of potential impacts to the four groundwater monitoring projects operating in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. It specifically fulfills Milestone M-15-81A of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Tri-Party Agreement). Milestone M-15-81A specifies the evaluation of the potential impacts to the groundwater monitoring well systems in the Central Plateau caused by the following activities: reduction of liquids discharged to soil, proposed and operational liquid treatment facilities, and proposed pump-and-treat systems. For this report, an open-quotes impactclose quotes is defined as a restriction of the ability to draw samples from a well and/or a reduction of the ability of a monitoring well to meet its intended purpose (such as the detection of contaminant seepage from a facility). Approximately 20% (74 wells) of the groundwater monitoring wells potentially will experience sampling problems by the year 2005 due to the declining water table in the Central Plateau. Reduction of discharges to the B Pond complex and operation of the Treated Effluent Disposal System will directly cause four additional wells to potentially experience sampling problems. Approximately 90 monitoring wells (35 of which are Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 [RCRA] wells) will be potentially affected by the operation of pump-and-treat systems in the 200 West Area. Most of the impacts will be caused by local changes to groundwater flow directions that will potentially reduce the ability of the RCRA well network to monitor a limited number of RCRA facilities

Using PHP/MySQL to Manage Potential Mass Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Hager, Benjamin I.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new application using commercially available software to manage mass properties for spaceflight vehicles. PHP/MySQL(PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor and My Structured Query Language) are a web scripting language and a database language commonly used in concert with each other. They open up new opportunities to develop cutting edge mass properties tools, and in particular, tools for the management of potential mass impacts (threats and opportunities). The paper begins by providing an overview of the functions and capabilities of PHP/MySQL. The focus of this paper is on how PHP/MySQL are being used to develop an advanced "web accessible" database system for identifying and managing mass impacts on NASA's Ares I Upper Stage program, managed by the Marshall Space Flight Center. To fully describe this application, examples of the data, search functions, and views are provided to promote, not only the function, but the security, ease of use, simplicity, and eye-appeal of this new application. This paper concludes with an overview of the other potential mass properties applications and tools that could be developed using PHP/MySQL. The premise behind this paper is that PHP/MySQL are software tools that are easy to use and readily available for the development of cutting edge mass properties applications. These tools are capable of providing "real-time" searching and status of an active database, automated report generation, and other capabilities to streamline and enhance mass properties management application. By using PHP/MySQL, proven existing methods for managing mass properties can be adapted to present-day information technology to accelerate mass properties data gathering, analysis, and reporting, allowing mass property management to keep pace with today's fast-pace design and development processes.

Evaluation of dynamic message signs and their potential impact on traffic flow : [research summary].

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-01

The objective of this research was to understand the potential impact of DMS messages on traffic : flow and evaluate their accuracy, timeliness, relevance and usefulness. Additionally, Bluetooth : sensors were used to track and analyze the diversion ...

106th meeting of the working group electronic instrumentation in Spring 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goettlicher, Peter

2015-06-01

The following topics were dealt with: A survey of DESY, actual in DESY, the electronics sevice center of DESY, flip-chip technology at DES, CE certifications for electronic devices centrally performed by DESY ZE, a VHDL-based gigabit ethernet protocol pile for FPGAs, a digital camera trigger for the Cherenkov-telescope array, the trigger system in the Hess1 Upgrade camera, data connection between ships and zeppelin for the ascertainment of flow vortices, IP-based measurement devices on the base of FPGA, MTCA.4 RTM module based on the DRS-4 capacitor array, basic design rules, integrated phase-locked loop design, machine protection system for XFEL and FLASH II, general machine timing of FAIR, MTCA.4-based reference and clock distribution module for the European XFEL, the driving system of the 12-m Cherenkov telescope MST, ventilator driving tor VDC chambers in the CMS experiment, implementation of a TANGO server for the connection of the Mythen detector in the GALAXI experiment, the flexible PiLC controller for driving and measurement purposes with FPGA performance, measurement of important beam parameters of the LHC with diamond sensors, recent developments of the electronics for the ATLAS strip tracker upgrade, a flexible electromagnetic actuator system for the turbulence research, prototype development for the CALICE analogous hadronic calorimeter. (HSI)

106th meeting of the working group electronic instrumentation in Spring 2015; 106. Tagung der Studiengruppe elektronische Instrumentierung im Fruehjahr 2015

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goettlicher, Peter (ed.)

2015-06-15

The following topics were dealt with: A survey of DESY, actual in DESY, the electronics sevice center of DESY, flip-chip technology at DES, CE certifications for electronic devices centrally performed by DESY ZE, a VHDL-based gigabit ethernet protocol pile for FPGAs, a digital camera trigger for the Cherenkov-telescope array, the trigger system in the Hess1 Upgrade camera, data connection between ships and zeppelin for the ascertainment of flow vortices, IP-based measurement devices on the base of FPGA, MTCA.4 RTM module based on the DRS-4 capacitor array, basic design rules, integrated phase-locked loop design, machine protection system for XFEL and FLASH II, general machine timing of FAIR, MTCA.4-based reference and clock distribution module for the European XFEL, the driving system of the 12-m Cherenkov telescope MST, ventilator driving tor VDC chambers in the CMS experiment, implementation of a TANGO server for the connection of the Mythen detector in the GALAXI experiment, the flexible PiLC controller for driving and measurement purposes with FPGA performance, measurement of important beam parameters of the LHC with diamond sensors, recent developments of the electronics for the ATLAS strip tracker upgrade, a flexible electromagnetic actuator system for the turbulence research, prototype development for the CALICE analogous hadronic calorimeter. (HSI)

Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

OpenAIRE

Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

2017-01-01

1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

The need for health impact assessment in China: Potential benefits for public health and steps forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu Liming, E-mail: lmwu@scdc.sh.c [Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336 (China); Center for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Nathan 4111 (Australia); Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia [Center for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Nathan 4111 (Australia)

2011-07-15

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a useful tool to predict and estimate the potential health impact associated with programs, projects, and policies by comprehensively identifying relevant health determinants and their consequences. China is undergoing massive and rapid socio-economic changes leading to environment and population health challenges such as a large increase in non-communicable diseases, the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, new health risks associated with environmental pollutants and escalating health inequality. These health issues are affected by multiple determinants which can be influenced by planned policies, programs, and projects. This paper discusses the needs for health impact assessment in China in order to minimize the negative health consequences from projects, programs and policies associated with rapid social and economic development. It first describes the scope of China's current impact assessment system and points out its inadequacy in meeting the requirements of population health protection and promotion. It then analyses the potential use of HIA and why China needs to develop and apply HIA as a tool to identify potential health impacts of proposed programs, projects and policies so as to influence decision-making early in the planning process. Thus, the paper recommends the development of HIA as a useful tool in China to enhance decision-making for the protection and promotion of population health. For this to happen, the paper outlines steps necessary for the establishment and successful implementation of HIA in China: beginning with the establishment of a HIA framework, followed by workforce capacity building, methodology design, and intersectoral collaboration and stakeholder engagement.

The need for health impact assessment in China: Potential benefits for public health and steps forward

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Liming; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2011-01-01

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a useful tool to predict and estimate the potential health impact associated with programs, projects, and policies by comprehensively identifying relevant health determinants and their consequences. China is undergoing massive and rapid socio-economic changes leading to environment and population health challenges such as a large increase in non-communicable diseases, the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, new health risks associated with environmental pollutants and escalating health inequality. These health issues are affected by multiple determinants which can be influenced by planned policies, programs, and projects. This paper discusses the needs for health impact assessment in China in order to minimize the negative health consequences from projects, programs and policies associated with rapid social and economic development. It first describes the scope of China's current impact assessment system and points out its inadequacy in meeting the requirements of population health protection and promotion. It then analyses the potential use of HIA and why China needs to develop and apply HIA as a tool to identify potential health impacts of proposed programs, projects and policies so as to influence decision-making early in the planning process. Thus, the paper recommends the development of HIA as a useful tool in China to enhance decision-making for the protection and promotion of population health. For this to happen, the paper outlines steps necessary for the establishment and successful implementation of HIA in China: beginning with the establishment of a HIA framework, followed by workforce capacity building, methodology design, and intersectoral collaboration and stakeholder engagement.

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China’s power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options

OpenAIRE

Cong, Rong-Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming

2010-01-01

In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that China would cut down carbon intensity 40e45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because CET is not fully implemented in China up to now, how to design it and its potential impact are unknown to us. This paper studies the potential impact of introduction of CET on China’s power sector and discusses the impact of different allocation options of allowances. Agent-based mod...

Triple-root jump in spacecraft potential due to electron beam emission or impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lai, S.T.

1992-01-01

Triple-root jump in spacecraft potential is well understood in the double Maxwellian model of the natural space environment. In this paper, however, the author points out that triple-root jumps in spacecraft potential may also occur during photoemission or electron beam emission from a spacecraft. Impact of an incoming electron beam on a spacecraft may also cause triple-root jumps provided that the beam, ambient plasma, and surface parameters satisfy certain inequality conditions. The parametric conditions under which such beam induced triple-root jumps may occur are presented

The Potential Impacts on Aquatic Ecosystems from the Release of Trace Elements in Geothermal Fluids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cushman, R.M.

2000-03-14

Geothermal energy will likely constitute an increasing percentage of our nation's future energy ''mix,'' both for electrical and nonelectrical uses. Associated with the exploitation of geothermal resources is the handling and disposal of fluids which contain a wide variety of potentially toxic trace elements. We present analyses of 14 trace elements found in hydrothermal fluids from various geothermal reservoirs in the western United States. The concentrations of these elements vary over orders of magnitude between reservoirs. Potential impacts are conservatively assessed on the basis of (1) toxicity to freshwater biota, and (2) bioaccumulation in food fish to the point where consumption might be hazardous to human health. Trace element concentrations generally range from benign levels to levels which might prove toxic to freshwater biota and contaminate food fisheries. We stress the need for site-specific analyses and careful handling of geothermal fluids in order to minimize potential impacts.

Solar energy development and aquatic ecosystems in the southwestern United States: potential impacts, mitigation, and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Grippo, Mark; Hayse, John W; O'Connor, Ben L

2015-01-01

The cumulative impacts of utility-scale solar energy facilities on aquatic ecosystems in the Southwestern United States are of concern, considering the many existing regional anthropogenic stressors. We review the potential impacts of solar energy development on aquatic habitat and biota. The greatest potential for impacts is related to the loss, fragmentation, or prolonged drying of ephemeral water bodies and drainage networks resulting from the loss of desert washes within the construction footprint of the facility. Groundwater-dependent aquatic habitat may also be affected by operational groundwater withdrawal in the case of water-intensive solar technologies. Solar panels have also been found to attract aquatic insects and waterbirds, potentially resulting in mortality. Avoiding construction activity near perennial and intermittent surface waters is the primary means of reducing impacts on aquatic habitats, followed by measures to minimize erosion, sedimentation, and contaminant inputs into waterways. Currently, significant data gaps make solar facility impact assessment and mitigation more difficult. Examples include the need for more regional and site-specific studies of surface-groundwater connectivity, more detailed maps of regional stream networks and riparian vegetation corridors, as well as surveys of the aquatic communities inhabiting ephemeral streams. In addition, because they often lack regulatory protection, there is also a need to develop valuation criteria for ephemeral waters based on their ecological and hydrologic function within the landscape. By addressing these research needs, we can achieve the goal of greater reliance on solar energy, while at the same time minimizing impacts on desert ecosystems.

Potential Impacts of Food Production on Freshwater Availability Considering Water Sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shinjiro Yano

2016-04-01

Full Text Available We quantify the potential impacts of global food production on freshwater availability (water scarcity footprint; WSF by applying the water unavailability factor (fwua as a characterization factor and a global water resource model based on life cycle impact assessment (LCIA. Each water source, including rainfall, surface water, and groundwater, has a distinct fwua that is estimated based on the renewability rate of each geographical water cycle. The aggregated consumptive water use level for food production (water footprint inventory; WI was found to be 4344 km3/year, and the calculated global total WSF was 18,031 km3 H2Oeq/year, when considering the difference in water sources. According to the fwua concept, which is based on the land area required to obtain a unit volume of water from each source, the calculated annual impact can also be represented as 98.5 × 106 km2. This value implies that current agricultural activities requires a land area that is over six times larger than global total cropland. We also present the net import of the WI and WSF, highlighting the importance of quantitative assessments for utilizing global water resources to achieve sustainable water use globally.

Model potentials in liquid water ionization by fast electron impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Sanctis, M L; Stia, C R; Fojón, O A; Politis, M-F; Vuilleumier, R

2015-01-01

We study the ionization of water molecules in liquid phase by fast electron impact. We use our previous first-order model within an independent electron approximation that allows the reduction of the multielectronic problem into a monoelectronic one. The initial molecular states of the liquid water are represented in a realistic way through a Wannier orbital formalism. We complete our previous study by taking into account approximately the influence of the passive electrons of the target by means of different model potentials. We compute multiple differential cross sections for the most external orbital 1B 1 and compare them with other results

Potential impacts of OCS oil and gas activities on fisheries. Volume 2. Annotated bibliography for OCS oil and gas impact studies. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tear, L.M.

1989-10-01

The volume is the second of two volumes to the final report, Potential Impacts of OCS Oil and Gas Activities on Fisheries. The volume presents an annotated bibliography of published and grey literature related to OCS oil and gas activity impacts of finfish and shellfish in marine and estuaring waters. The studies presented in the bibliography include those related to the following pollutants or impact-causing activities: Rig/reef effects, Drilling discharges (muds or cuttings), Oil (petroleum hydrocarbons), Trace metals, Produced water, Habitat alteration, Debris, Rig placement (avoidance), Pipelines, and Socioeconomic effects. The studies are listed alphabetically by the primary author's last name. An index is provided to help the reader identify studies related to a specific impact

Biocide and corrosion inhibition use in the oil and gas industry: Effectiveness and potential environmental impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandon, D.M.; Fillo, J.P.; Morris, A.E.; Evans, J.M.

1995-01-01

Treatment chemicals are used in all facets of the natural gas industry (NGI) from well development through transmission and storage of natural gas. The multitude of chemicals used, combined with the dozens of chemical manufacturers and/or suppliers has lead to the availability of hundreds of possible chemical products. Because of the widespread use of chemical products and their numerous sources, the NGI needs access to consistent data regarding their effectiveness and potential environmental impacts. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effectiveness and potential environmental impacts of, chemical products used in the NGI. This assessment was initially focused on biocides and corrosion inhibitors and their use in the gas production, storage and transmission facilities, The overall approach was obtain the necessary data on chemical use and effectiveness directly from the oil and gas industry, supplemented with data/information obtained from the published literature. Five case histories of chemical use were documented and evaluated to assess the effectiveness of these chemicals. Potential environmental impacts were addressed by performing a screening environmental assessment on the use of glutaraldehyde, a widely used biocide. Prototype discharge scenarios were formulated and modeled to evaluate potential impacts to groundwater and surface water. The paper describes the basis for the study, provides an overview of chemical use with a focus on biocides and corrosion inhibitors, describes and assesses the specific uses of chemicals, and presents the results of the environmental assessment. It was found that various chemicals can be effective in treating microbiologically influenced corrosion and souring, but that the effectiveness of specific chemicals is dependent on the operational scenario and the site-specific conditions

Exploring the Potential Emotional and Behavioural Impact of Providing Personalised Genomic Risk Information to the Public: A Focus Group Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smit, Amelia K; Keogh, Louise A; Newson, Ainsley J; Hersch, Jolyn; Butow, Phyllis; Cust, Anne E

2015-01-01

To explore the potential emotional and behavioural impact of providing information on personalised genomic risk to the public, using melanoma as an example, to aid research translation. We conducted four focus groups in which 34 participants were presented with a hypothetical scenario of an individual's lifetime genomic risk of melanoma (using the term 'genetic risk'). We asked about understanding of genetic risk, who would choose to receive this risk information, potential emotional and behavioural impacts, and other concerns or potential benefits. Data were analysed thematically. Participants thought this risk information could potentially motivate preventive behaviours such as sun protection and related it to screening for other diseases including breast cancer. Factors identified as influencing the decision to receive genetic risk information included education level, children, age and gender. Participants identified potential negative impacts on the recipient such as anxiety and worry, and proposed that this could be mitigated by providing additional explanatory and prevention information, and contact details of a health professional for further discussion. Participants' concerns included workplace and insurance discrimination. Participants recognised the potential for both positive and negative emotional and behavioural impacts related to receiving information on the personalised genomic risk of melanoma. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Radiation pathways and potential health impacts from inactive uranium mill tailings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-07-01

Radiation exposure pathways and potential health impacts were estimated as part of the evaluation of radioactive uranium mill tailings at the sites of inactive mills in eight western states. The purpose of this report is to describe in detail the methodology used in performing the pathway analysis and health effects estimations. In addition, specific parameters are presented for each of the 22 uranium mill sites that were evaluated. A computer program, RADAD, developed as part of this program, is described and listed

Review and assessments of potential environmental, health and safety impacts of MHD technology. Final draft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-01-01

The purpose of this document is to develop an environmental, health and safety (EH and S) assessment and begin a site - specific assessment of these and socio - economic impacts for the magnetohydrodynamics program of the United States Department of Energy. This assessment includes detailed scientific and technical information on the specific EH and S issues mentioned in the MHD Environmental Development Plan. A review of current literature on impact-related subjects is also included. This document addresses the coal-fired, open-cycle MHD technology and reviews and assesses potential EH and S impacts resulting from operation of commercially-installed technology.

Fluvial sediment inputs to upland gravel bed rivers draining forested catchments: potential ecological impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. D. Marks

1997-01-01

Full Text Available As identified by the detailed long-term monitoring networks at Plynlimon, increased sediment supply to upland fluvial systems is often associated with forestry land-use and practice. Literature is reviewed, in the light of recent results from Plynlimon sediment studies, to enable identification of the potential ecological impacts of fluvial particulate inputs to upland gravel bed rivers draining forested catchments similar to the headwaters of the River Severn. Both sediment transport and deposition can have significant impacts upon aquatic vertebrates, invertebrates and plants.

E-learning in medical education: the potential environmental impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Kieran

2018-03-01

Introduction There is a growing interest in the use of e-learning in medical education. However until recently there has been little interest in the potential environmental benefits of e-learning. This paper models various environmental outcomes that might emerge from the use of an e-learning resource (BMJ Learning) in CPD. Methods We modeled the use of e-learning as a component of CPD and evaluated the potential impact of this use on the learner's carbon footprint. We looked at a number of models - all from the perspective of a General Practitioner (GP). We assumed that all GPs completed 50 h or credits of CPD per year. Results High users of e-learning can reduce their carbon footprint - mainly by reducing their travel to face-to-face events (reducing printing also has a small beneficial effect). A high user of e-learning can reduce the carbon footprint that relates to their CPD by 18.5 kg. Discussion As global warming continues to pose a risk to human and environmental health, we feel that doctors have a duty to consider learning activities (such as e-learning) that are associated with a lower carbon footprint.

Assessing potential impacts associated with contamination events in water distribution systems : a sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, M. J.; Janke, R.; Taxon, T. N. (Decision and Information Sciences); ( EVS); (EPA)

2010-11-01

An understanding of the nature of the adverse effects that could be associated with contamination events in water distribution systems is necessary for carrying out vulnerability analyses and designing contamination warning systems. This study examines the adverse effects of contamination events using models for 12 actual water systems that serve populations ranging from about 104 to over 106 persons. The measure of adverse effects that we use is the number of people who are exposed to a contaminant above some dose level due to ingestion of contaminated tap water. For this study the number of such people defines the impact associated with an event. We consider a wide range of dose levels in order to accommodate a wide range of potential contaminants. For a particular contaminant, dose level can be related to a health effects level. For example, a dose level could correspond to the median lethal dose, i.e., the dose that would be fatal to 50% of the exposed population. Highly toxic contaminants may be associated with a particular response at a very low dose level, whereas contaminants with low toxicity may only be associated with the same response at a much higher dose level. This report focuses on the sensitivity of impacts to five factors that either define the nature of a contamination event or involve assumptions that are used in assessing exposure to the contaminant: (1) duration of contaminant injection, (2) time of contaminant injection, (3) quantity or mass of contaminant injected, (4) population distribution in the water distribution system, and (5) the ingestion pattern of the potentially exposed population. For each of these factors, the sensitivities of impacts to injection location and contaminant toxicity are also examined. For all the factors considered, sensitivity tends to increase with dose level (i.e., decreasing toxicity) of the contaminant, with considerable inter-network variability. With the exception of the population distribution (factor 4

EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement: Potential Impacts on Rural Livelihoods and Gender (with Focus on Bio-fuels Feedstock Expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonith Hinojosa

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The trade-sustainable impact assessment of the European Union-Mercosur trade agreement found that the economic impact of the trade liberalisation scenario could be positive in the agricultural sectors of Mercosur countries. However, it also found that the social and environmental impacts would be mixed and potentially detrimental. This paper addresses the likely effects on the livelihoods of vulnerable rural populations. It argues that the potential impacts can be analysed within a diversified livelihood strategies framework, which is expanded to include institutional and policy factors. It concludes that the negative expected impact responds to the highly uneven access to capital assets. On the other hand, the effects are not generalised to all Mercosur countries, nor to all regions in each of the member countries. Enhancing or mitigating measures refer to the importance of sequencing and regulation to improve disadvantaged groups‘ abilities to participate in trade-led agricultural intensification or industrialisation processes.

Potential impacts of wind turbines on birds at North Cape, Prince Edward Island

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kingsley, A.; Whitman, B.

2001-12-13

As the number of new wind power generating stations in Canada grows, so do concerns regarding the environmental impact of turbines on birds, particularly on raptors and migrating songbirds. These birds are generally at greatest risk of injury or death from turbines, but the impact of these structures on all bird species must be considered on a site-by-site basis. Disturbance to breeding and wintering as a result of turbines must be better researched. This report reviews the literature on the effects of wind turbines on birds, with reference to the North Cape, Prince Edward Island. It recommends ways to reduce potential impacts of turbines on birds in that area, and suggests a program whereby the potential effects of wind turbines on birds can be monitored. The bird groups likely to be seen at North Cape include water birds, raptors, songbirds, and 5 bird species that are considered to be provincially rare. The main causes of bird mortality at wind powered energy facilities are birds flying into rotating turbine blades. Migrating birds are attracted to warning lights on the turbines and collide with the structures and they also collide with the power lines connected to the station. Poor weather conditions, such as fog, increase the occurrence of collisions with towers. Several studies have shown that most migrating and wintering bird species alter their flight paths to avoid turbines. Studies also indicate that bird mortalities at wind energy facilities are not biologically significant and that impacts are not likely to be significant if wind turbines are located in areas of poor habitat and low bird densities. 61 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

Potential impact of miR-137 and its targets in schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carrie eWright

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The significant impact of microRNAs (miRNAs on disease pathology is becoming increasingly evident. These small non-coding RNAs have the ability to post-transcriptionally silence the expression of thousands of genes. Therefore, dysregulation of even a single miRNA could confer a large polygenic effect. Schizophrenia is a genetically complex illness thought to involve multiple genes each contributing a small risk. Large genome-wide association studies identified miR-137, a miRNA shown to be involved in neuronal maturation, as one of the top risk genes. To assess the potential mechanism of impact of miR-137 in this disorder and identify its targets, we used a combination of literature searches, Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA, and freely accessible bioinformatics resources. Using TargetScan and the Schizophrenia Gene Resource (SZGR database, we found that in addition to CSMD1, C10orf26, CACNA1C, TCF4, and ZNF804A, five schizophrenia risk genes whose transcripts are also validated miR-137 targets, there are other schizophrenia-associated genes that may be targets of miR-137, including ERBB4, GABRA1, GRIN2A, GRM5, GSK3B, NRG2 and HTR2C. IPA analyses of all the potential targets identified several nervous system functions as the top canonical pathways including synaptic long-term potentiation, a process implicated in learning and memory mechanisms and recently shown to be altered in patients with schizophrenia. Among the subset of targets involved in nervous system development and function, the top scoring pathways were ephrin receptor signaling and axonal guidance, processes that are critical for proper circuitry formation and were shown to be disrupted in schizophrenia. These results suggest that miR-137 may indeed play a substantial role in the genetic etiology of schizophrenia by regulating networks involved in neural development and brain function.

Using program impact pathways to understand and improve program delivery, utilization, and potential for impact of Helen Keller International's homestead food production program in Cambodia.

Science.gov (United States)

Olney, Deanna K; Vicheka, Sao; Kro, Meng; Chakriya, Chhom; Kroeun, Hou; Hoing, Ly Sok; Talukder, Aminzzaman; Quinn, Victoria; Iannotti, Lora; Becker, Elisabeth; Roopnaraine, Terry

2013-06-01

Evidence of the impact of homestead food production programs on nutrition outcomes such as anemia and growth is scant. In the absence of information on program impact pathways, it is difficult to understand why these programs, which have been successful in increasing intake of micronutrient-rich foods, have had such limited documented impact on nutrition outcomes. To conduct a process evaluation of Helen Keller International's (HKI's) homestead food production program in Cambodia to assess whether the program was operating as planned (in terms of design, delivery, and utilization) and to identify ways in which the program might need to be strengthened in order to increase its potential for impact. A program theory framework, which laid out the primary components along the hypothesized program impact pathways, was developed in collaboration with HKI and used to design the research. Semistructured interviews and focus group discussions with program beneficiaries (n = 36 and 12, respectively), nonbeneficiaries (n = 12), and program implementers (n = 17 and 2, respectively) and observations of key program delivery points, including health and nutrition training sessions (n = 6), village model farms (n = 6), and household gardens of beneficiaries (n = 36) and nonbeneficiaries (n = 12), were conducted to assess the delivery and utilization of the primary program components along the impact pathways. The majority of program components were being delivered and utilized as planned. However, challenges with some of the key components posited to improve outcomes such as anemia and growth were noted. Among these were a gap in the expected pathway from poultry production to increased intake of eggs and poultry meat, and some weaknesses in the delivery of the health and nutrition training sessions and related improvements in knowledge among the village health volunteers and beneficiaries. Although the program has been successful in delivering the majority of the program

Mitigating impact of thermal and rectified radio-frequency sheath potentials on edge localized modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gui, B. [Institute of Plasma Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei (China); Lawerence Livermore National Lab, Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Xu, X. Q. [Lawerence Livermore National Lab, Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Myra, J. R.; D' Ippolito, D. A. [Lodestar Research Corporation, Boulder, Colorado 80301 (United States)

2014-11-15

The mitigating impact of thermal and rectified radio frequency (RF) sheath potentials on the peeling-ballooning modes is studied non-linearly by employing a two-fluid three-field simulation model based on the BOUT++ framework. Additional shear flow and the Kelvin-Helmholtz effect due to the thermal and rectified RF sheath potential are induced. It is found that the shear flow increases the growth rate while the K-H effect decreases the growth rate slightly when there is a density gradient, but the energy loss of these cases is suppressed in the nonlinear phase. The stronger external electrostatic field due to the sheaths has a more significant effect on the energy loss suppression. From this study, it is found the growth rate in the linear phase mainly determines the onset of edge-localized modes, while the mode spectrum width in the nonlinear phase has an important impact on the turbulent transport. The wider mode spectrum leads to weaker turbulent transport and results in a smaller energy loss. Due to the thermal sheath and rectified RF sheath potential in the scrape-off-layer, the modified shear flow tears apart the peeling-ballooning filament and makes the mode spectrum wider, resulting in less energy loss. The perturbed electric potential and the parallel current near the sheath region is also suppressed locally due to the sheath boundary condition.

Potential impact of enhanced fracture-toughness data on pressurized-thermal-shock analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickson, T.L.; Theiss, T.J.

1990-01-01

The Heavy Section Steel Technology (HSST) Program is involved with the generation of ''enhanced'' fracture-initiation toughness and fracture-arrest toughness data of prototypic nuclear reactor vessel steels. These two sets of data are enhanced because they have distinguishing characteristics that could potentially impact PWR pressure vessel integrity assessments for the pressurized-thermal shock (PTS) loading condition which is a major plant-life extension issue to be confronted in the 1990's. Currently, the HSST Program is planning experiments to verify and quantify, for A533B steel, the distinguishing characteristic of elevated initiation-fracture toughness for shallow flaws which has been observed for other steels. Deterministic and probabilistic fracture-mechanics analyses were performed to examine the influence of the enhanced initiation and arrest fracture-toughness data on the cleavage fracture response of a nuclear reactor pressure vessel subjected to PTS loading. The results of the analyses indicated that application of the enhanced K Ia data does reduce the conditional probability of failure P(F|E); however, it does not appear to have the potential to significantly impact the results of PTS analyses. The application of enhanced fracture-initiation-toughness data for shallow flaws also reduces P(F|E), but it does appear to have a potential for significantly affecting the results of PTS analyses. The effect of including Type I warm prestress in probabilistic fracture-mechanics analyses is beneficial. The benefit is transient dependent and, in some cases, can be quite significant. 19 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab

Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

2010-06-01

Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomechanical approaches to understanding the potentially injurious demands of gymnastic-style impact landings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gittoes Marianne JR

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Gymnasts are exposed to a high incidence of impact landings due to the execution of repeated dismount performances. Biomechanical research can help inform recent discussions surrounding a proposed rule change in potentially injurious gymnastic dismounting. The review examines existing understanding of the mechanisms influencing the impact loads incurred in gymnastic-style landings achieved using biomechanical approaches. Laboratory-based and theoretical modelling research of inherent and regulatory mechanisms is appraised. The integration of the existing insights into injury prevention interventions studies is further considered in the appraisals. While laboratory-based studies have traditionally been favoured, the difficulty in controlling and isolating mechanisms of interest has partially restricted the understanding gained. An increase in the use of theoretical approaches has been evident over the past two decades, which has successfully enhanced insight into less readily modified mechanisms. For example, the important contribution of mass compositions and 'tuned' mass coupling responses to impact loading has been evidenced. While theoretical studies have advanced knowledge in impact landing mechanics, restrictions in the availability of laboratory-based input data have suppressed the benefits gained. The advantages of integrating laboratory-based and theoretical approaches in furthering scientific understanding of loading mechanisms have been recognised in the literature. Since a multi-mechanism contribution to impact loading has been evident, a deviation away from studies examining isolated mechanisms may be supported for the future. A further scientific understanding of the use of regulatory mechanisms in alleviating a performer's inherent injury predisposition may subsequently be gained and used to inform potential rule changes in gymnastics. While the use of controlled studies for providing scientific evidence for the

Potential radiological impact of the phosphate industry on wildlife

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Sweeck, Lieve

2015-01-01

The activities of the phosphate industry may lead to enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We performed a preliminary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of environmental contamination resulting from the activities of 5 phosphate fertiliser plants (located in Belgium, Spain, Syria, Egypt, Brazil), a phosphate-mine and a phosphate-export platform in a harbour (both located in Syria). These sites were selected because of the availability of information on concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in the surrounding environments. Assessments were generally performed considering highest environmental concentrations reported in the studies. The ERICA Tool, operating in a Tier 2 assessment mode, was used to predict radiation dose rates and associated risk to the selected reference organisms using the ERICA default parameter setting. Reference organisms were those assigned as default by the ERICA Tool. Potential impact is expressed as a best estimate risk quotient (RQ) based on a radiation screening value of 10 μGy h −1 . If RQ ≤ 1, the environment is considered unlikely to be at risk and further radiological assessment is not deemed necessary. Except for one of the cases assessed, the best estimate RQ exceeded 1 for at least one of the reference organisms. Internal exposure covered for 90–100 % of the total dose. 226 Ra or 210 Po were generally the highest contributors to the dose. The aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of the phosphate fertiliser plants in Tessenderlo (Belgium), Huelva (Spain), Goiás (Brazil) and the terrestrial environment around the phosphate mine in Palmyra (Syria) are the ecosystems predicted to be potentially most at risk. - Highlights: • The adjusted highlights Environmental radionuclide enrichment from P-industry warrants risk assessment. • 226 Ra and 210 Po are the most dose contributing radionuclides. • The total dose rate is strongly driven by the internal

INNOVATION POTENTIAL: IMPACT ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY’S COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EU DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iryna Lomachynska

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The success of the economy of each country is determined by its innovation development. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the essence of innovation potential and its role in providing the national economy’s competitiveness under the conditions of technological changes on the example of the European Union developed countries. The subject of research is the innovation potential of Austria and Germany. Methodology. The study is based on a comparative analysis of approaches to determination and evaluation of innovation potential in specialized economic literature. Analysis and synthesis and the system approach were used to outline the entity of innovation potential, to explore and structure its elements in the context of providing the national economy’s competitiveness. The quality and quantity analysis were used to discover general characteristics of the EU countries’ innovation development, special aspects of the national innovation systems of Austria and Germany, the role of innovation potential in the national economies competitiveness of these countries. The method of mathematical modelling in economics, in particular, regression analysis based on annual data for the period from 1995 to 2015, was applied to assess the impact of innovation potential on the Austria and Germany competitiveness. The absolute value of GDP and the share of export of goods and services in GDP are used as a dependent variable. Elements that characterize the country’s innovation potential were used as independent variables: the share of researchers in R&D of total population, the share of labour force with advanced education of total working-age population with advanced education, expenditure on tertiary education as a percentage of GDP, R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP, patent applications as a percentage of total population. Results of the survey of theoretical works showed that the most multifaceted and comprehensive approach to determining the

Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.

Science.gov (United States)

Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B; Smith, Ward N; Desjardins, Raymond L; Worth, Devon E; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S

2014-08-15

Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stefanski, R; Sivakumar, M V K

2009-01-01

This paper will give an overview of the various impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and then address the potential applications of a Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDSWS) for agricultural users. Sand and dust storms have many negative impacts on the agricultural sector including: reducing crop yields by burial of seedlings under sand deposits, the loss of plant tissue and reduced photosynthetic activity as a result of sandblasting, delaying plant development, increasing end-of-season drought risk, causing injury and reduced productivity of livestock, increasing soil erosion and accelerating the process of land degradation and desertification, filling up irrigation canals with sediments, covering transportation routes, affecting water quality of rivers and streams, and affecting air quality. One positive impact is the fertilization of soil minerals to terrestrial ecosystems. There are several potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS. The first is to alert agricultural communities farmers to take preventive action in the near-term such as harvesting maturing crops (vegetables, grain), sheltering livestock, and strengthening infrastructure (houses, roads, grain storage) for the storm. Also, the products of a SDSWS could be used in for monitoring potential locust movement and post-storm crop damage assessments. An archive of SDSWS products (movement, amount of sand and dust) could be used in researching plant and animal pathogen movement and the relationship of sand and dust storms to disease outbreaks and in developing improved soil erosion and land degradation models.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chen; Lai, Shiyu; Gao, Xueping; Xu, Liping

2015-10-01

To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

Clearance rates of jellyfish and their potential predation impact on zooplankton and fish larvae in a neritic ecosystem (Limfjorden, Denmark)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansson, L. J.; Moeslund, O.; Kiørboe, Thomas

2005-01-01

clearance potential were given assumed clearance rate values, but the collective predation potential by these species was evaluated to be small. Hydromedusae dominated numerically and had their highest potential clearance impact in spring, but overall jellyfish clearance potential on copepods was low during...

Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

2009-07-01

The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Burkett, Virginia; Kusler, Jon

2000-01-01

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Comparison of exergy of emissions from two energy conversion technologies, considering the potential for environmental impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crane, P.; Scott, D.S.; Rosen, M.A.

1992-01-01

There is a reference state in which substances exist in a stable form in the environment (atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere) for all elements. Substances which are out of equilibrium with the environmental reference state, either in terms of chemical composition, concentration, pressure or temperature represent an opportunity to do work as they pass through processes which bring them to the environmental reference state and hence into equilibrium with the environment. The degree to which a substance is out of equilibrium with the environment is represented by its exergy. For an unconstrained emission, the exergy, or potential to do work, of a substance is dissipated in the environment as the substance is brought to the reference state of the environment. Hence, exergy may be considered a measure of the potential of the substance to impact the environment. This paper examines emissions from two alternate automobile power trains: (i) methanol-fuelled spark ignition engines, and (ii) hydrogen-fuelled fuel cells. It is shown that the exergy of emissions from the methanol engine is high (and thus indicative of greater impact on the environment), whereas emissions from a hydrogen/air fuel cell are lower in exergy (thus indicating a system better synchronised with the environment). These results are as expected. Thus, the methodology presented for evaluation of potential for environmental impact, which is both general and quantitative, appears promising. (Author)

Comparison of exergy of emissions from two energy conversion technologies, considering the potential for environmental impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crane, P; Scott, D S [Victoria Univ., BC (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Rosen, M A [Ryerson Polytechnical Inst., Toronto, ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

1992-05-01

There is a reference state in which substances exist in a stable form in the environment (atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere) for all elements. Substances which are out of equilibrium with the environmental reference state, either in terms of chemical composition, concentration, pressure or temperature represent an opportunity to do work as they pass through processes which bring them to the environmental reference state and hence into equilibrium with the environment. The degree to which a substance is out of equilibrium with the environment is represented by its exergy. For an unconstrained emission, the exergy, or potential to do work, of a substance is dissipated in the environment as the substance is brought to the reference state of the environment. Hence, exergy may be considered a measure of the potential of the substance to impact the environment. This paper examines emissions from two alternate automobile power trains: (i) methanol-fuelled spark ignition engines, and (ii) hydrogen-fuelled fuel cells. It is shown that the exergy of emissions from the methanol engine is high (and thus indicative of greater impact on the environment), whereas emissions from a hydrogen/air fuel cell are lower in exergy (thus indicating a system better synchronised with the environment). These results are as expected. Thus, the methodology presented for evaluation of potential for environmental impact, which is both general and quantitative, appears promising. (Author).

Impact of grape cluster defoliation on TDN potential in cool climate Riesling wines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schüttler Armin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Many cool climate grape vine growing regions are and will be affected by the global climate change. It is likely that increasing temperatures, as well as changing precipitation pattern will impact the wines’ composition and wine styles. In the last decades the sensory concept of German Riesling wines was considered to represent fresh and fruity notes. However, aged wines of this variety are characterized by petrol like aroma, which is not appreciated in modern Riesling wines. The C13-norisoprenoid 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-dihydronaphthalene (TDN is considered to be the marker compound for this undesired sensory impression. The biogenesis of this compound is impacted by grape vine growth conditions. Wines made from Riesling grapes grown in warmer climates have higher concentrations of TDN. Therefore “TDN management” will be one of the most challenging tasks in viticulture in Riesling growing regions in general and particularly in cool climate regions. Two approaches considered are the canopy management of the grape vines as well as an appropriate selection of yeast strain for alcoholic fermentation. Therefore, the aim of this project was to study the impact of grape zone defoliation on potential TDN concentrations in grapes, must and finished wines under cool climate conditions, in example of regional conditions of the landmark Hessische Bergstraße, in com- bination with the usage of two commercially available yeast strains during alcoholic fermentation. The experiment consisted of four treatments in a balanced incomplete block design, grape zone defoliation at berry set on the eastern side of the canopy, grape zone defoliation at berry set on eastern and western side of the canopy, grape zone defoliation at veraison on eastern and western side of the canopy, and a non-defoliated treatment. The treatments and repetitions were harvested separately, pressed, and then fermented with two different commercial Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains. Grape

Potential Impact of Accelerating the Primary Dose of Rotavirus Vaccine in Infants

OpenAIRE

Halvorson, Elizabeth E.; Peters, Timothy R.; Snively, Beverly M.; Poehling, Katherine A.

2012-01-01

We estimated the potential impact of administering the first dose of rotavirus vaccine at 6 weeks (42 days of life) instead of 2 months of age, which is permissible for all U.S. vaccines recommended at 2 months of age, on rotavirus hospitalization rates. We used published data for hospitalization rates, vaccine coverage, and vaccine efficacy after one dose and assumed a two-week delay in seroconversion after vaccine administration in the United States. Administering the first dose of rotaviru...

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Microbial Activity on Drift Chemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Y. Wang

2004-11-18

''Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Microbial Activity on Drift Chemistry'' focuses on the potential for microbial communities that could be active in repository emplacement drifts to influence the in-drift bulk chemical environment. This report feeds analyses to support the inclusion or exclusion of features, events, and processes (FEPs) in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), but this work is not expected to generate direct feeds to the TSPA-LA. The purpose was specified by, and the evaluation was performed and is documented in accordance with, ''Technical Work Plan For: Near-Field Environment and Transport In-Drift Geochemistry Analyses'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 172402], Section 2.1). This report addresses all of the FEPs assigned by the technical work plan (TWP), including the development of exclusion arguments for FEPs that are not carried forward to the TSPA-LA. Except for an editorial correction noted in Section 6.2, there were no other deviations from the TWP. This report documents the completion of all assigned tasks, as follows (BSC 2004 DIRS 172402, Section 1.2.1): (1) Perform analyses to evaluate the potential for microbial activity in the waste emplacement drift under the constraints of anticipated physical and chemical conditions. (2) Evaluate uncertainties associated with these analyses. (3) Determine whether the potential for microbes warrants a feed to TSPA-LA to account for predicted effects on repository performance. (4) Provide information to address the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NUREG-1804) (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]) and Key Technical Issues and agreements, as appropriate. (5) Develop information for inclusion or exclusion of FEPs.

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Microbial Activity on Drift Chemistry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Y. Wang

2004-01-01

''Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Microbial Activity on Drift Chemistry'' focuses on the potential for microbial communities that could be active in repository emplacement drifts to influence the in-drift bulk chemical environment. This report feeds analyses to support the inclusion or exclusion of features, events, and processes (FEPs) in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), but this work is not expected to generate direct feeds to the TSPA-LA. The purpose was specified by, and the evaluation was performed and is documented in accordance with, ''Technical Work Plan For: Near-Field Environment and Transport In-Drift Geochemistry Analyses'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 172402], Section 2.1). This report addresses all of the FEPs assigned by the technical work plan (TWP), including the development of exclusion arguments for FEPs that are not carried forward to the TSPA-LA. Except for an editorial correction noted in Section 6.2, there were no other deviations from the TWP. This report documents the completion of all assigned tasks, as follows (BSC 2004 DIRS 172402, Section 1.2.1): (1) Perform analyses to evaluate the potential for microbial activity in the waste emplacement drift under the constraints of anticipated physical and chemical conditions. (2) Evaluate uncertainties associated with these analyses. (3) Determine whether the potential for microbes warrants a feed to TSPA-LA to account for predicted effects on repository performance. (4) Provide information to address the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NUREG-1804) (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]) and Key Technical Issues and agreements, as appropriate. (5) Develop information for inclusion or exclusion of FEPs

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Potential impact of wind energy development of mountain flora and fauna in Rhone-Alpes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ladet, Alain; Bauvet, Corinne

2005-03-01

After a presentation of Rhone-Alpes mountain areas (massifs, constraints related to mountain climate, vegetation levels), this report proposes an overview of elements to be taken into account for the development of wind energy. It lists the different concerned public actors, reports a bibliographical study, indicates names and locations of sensitive species (fauna and flora) and natural environments. A synthesis indicates potential impacts, and outlines the patrimonial value, and then proposes an approach for the diagnosis and for the impact study. Appendices notably contain sheets which present the different concerned vegetal or animal species, and their important characteristics in terms of habitat and life

Investigating the Potential Impacts of Energy Production in the Marcellus Shale Region Using the Shale Network Database

Science.gov (United States)

Brantley, S.; Brazil, L.

2017-12-01

The Shale Network's extensive database of water quality observations enables educational experiences about the potential impacts of resource extraction with real data. Through tools that are open source and free to use, researchers, educators, and citizens can access and analyze the very same data that the Shale Network team has used in peer-reviewed publications about the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on water. The development of the Shale Network database has been made possible through efforts led by an academic team and involving numerous individuals from government agencies, citizen science organizations, and private industry. Thus far, these tools and data have been used to engage high school students, university undergraduate and graduate students, as well as citizens so that all can discover how energy production impacts the Marcellus Shale region, which includes Pennsylvania and other nearby states. This presentation will describe these data tools, how the Shale Network has used them in developing lesson plans, and the resources available to learn more.

Potential climate change impacts and the BLM Rio Puerco field office's transportation system : a technical report

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

This report provides information about potential climate change impacts in central New Mexico and their possible implications for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Rio Puerco Field Office (RPFO) transportation network. The report considers existing...

Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; Worth, Devon E.; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S.

2014-01-01

Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 decreased on average the emissions of N 2 O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO 2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N 2 O, NO and NH 3 flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N 2 O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact

Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Desjardins, Raymond L., E-mail: ray.desjardins@agr.gc.ca [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Worth, Devon E. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Zentner, Robert [Swift Current Research Station, Swift Current, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada); Malhi, Sukhdev S. [Melfort Research Farm, PO Box 1240, Melfort, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada)

2014-08-15

Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} decreased on average the emissions of N{sub 2}O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO{sub 2} emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N{sub 2}O, NO and NH{sub 3} flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N{sub 2}O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact.

Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.

Science.gov (United States)

Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'Anno, Antonio; Rastelli, Eugenio

2017-12-15

Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

Science.gov (United States)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Analyzing the greenhouse gas impact potential of smallholder development actions across a global food security program

Science.gov (United States)

Grewer, Uwe; Nash, Julie; Gurwick, Noel; Bockel, Louis; Galford, Gillian; Richards, Meryl; Costa Junior, Ciniro; White, Julianna; Pirolli, Gillian; Wollenberg, Eva

2018-04-01

This article analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact potential of improved management practices and technologies for smallholder agriculture promoted under a global food security development program. Under ‘business-as-usual’ development, global studies on the future of agriculture to 2050 project considerable increases in total food production and cultivated area. Conventional cropland intensification and conversion of natural vegetation typically result in increased GHG emissions and loss of carbon stocks. There is a strong need to understand the potential greenhouse gas impacts of agricultural development programs intended to achieve large-scale change, and to identify pathways of smallholder agricultural development that can achieve food security and agricultural production growth without drastic increases in GHG emissions. In an analysis of 134 crop and livestock production systems in 15 countries with reported impacts on 4.8 million ha, improved management practices and technologies by smallholder farmers significantly reduce GHG emission intensity of agricultural production, increase yields and reduce post-harvest losses, while either decreasing or only moderately increasing net GHG emissions per area. Investments in both production and post-harvest stages meaningfully reduced GHG emission intensity, contributing to low emission development. We present average impacts on net GHG emissions per hectare and GHG emission intensity, while not providing detailed statistics of GHG impacts at scale that are associated to additional uncertainties. While reported improvements in smallholder systems effectively reduce future GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual development, these contributions are insufficient to significantly reduce net GHG emission in agriculture beyond current levels, particularly if future agricultural production grows at projected rates.

Environmental impacts of micro-wind turbines and their potential to contribute to UK climate change targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greening, Benjamin; Azapagic, Adisa

2013-01-01

This paper evaluates the life cycle environmental sustainability of micro-wind turbines in the UK in comparison with grid electricity and solar PV (photovoltaics). The results suggests that per kWh electricity generated, the majority of environmental impacts from the wind turbines are lower than from grid electricity, ranging from 26% lower terrestrial toxicity to 92% lower global warming. However, depletion of abiotic elements, fresh-water and human toxicities are 82%, 74% and 53% higher than for grid electricity, respectively. The wind turbines are more environmentally sustainable than solar PV for seven out of 11 impacts, ranging from 7.5% lower eutrophication to 85% lower ozone layer depletion. However, depletion of fossil resources, fresh-water, human and terrestrial toxicities are higher for the wind turbine than for the PV, ranging from 5% for the former to 87% for the latter. UK-wide deployment of micro-wind turbines would save between 0.6 and 1% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions on 2009 levels. Therefore, the potential of micro-wind turbines to contribute towards UK's climate change targets is limited. - Highlights: • Life cycle environmental impacts of micro-wind turbines estimated for UK conditions. • The majority impacts are lower for micro-wind turbines than for grid electricity and solar PV. • Some impacts from micro-wind are higher, notably fresh-water and human toxicity. • At the national level, wind turbines would save only 0.6% GHG emissions on 2009 levels. • The potential of micro-wind turbines to contribute to UK's climate change targets is limited

76 FR 21938 - Potential Environmental Impacts of the Proposed Runway 13 Extension and Associated Actions for...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-19

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Potential Environmental Impacts of the Proposed Runway 13 Extension and Associated Actions for the Devils Lake Regional Airport in Devils Lake, ND AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION...

Developing a Model to Assess the Potential Impact of TUM Hydropower Turbines on Small River Ecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiwei Yao

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Small hydropower is a renewable energy technology that is used for electricity generation worldwide, but still has potential for further development. However, during the installation of small hydropower, the ecological impacts of the power plants need to be thoroughly investigated. In addressing the challenges of energy production and minimizing the environmental impacts of small hydropower installation and operation, this study has applied an ecohydraulic model to investigate river hydrodynamics, hydromorphology, habitat, and the population impacts of small hydropower, and presented the Mum River as a case study. Two scenarios were implemented in this research to simulate the hydrodynamic, sedimentation, habitat, and population status in order to assess the potential effects caused by the TUM plant. At the Mum River, two scenarios were proposed: the TUM plant was not considered in scenario S1, but was considered in scenario S2. The model results for scenario S2 indicated that the habitat was suitable for fish species living in the Mum River, with fish population numbers between 4.6 × 103 and 6.6 × 103. The S2 results indicated that the impacts of the TUM plant were negligible when compared with S1. Although the impact of the TUM plant on the Mum River is relatively large when the discharge is high (19 m3/s, calculations based on stable flow shows that the TUM plant could function well on the river ecosystem when the discharge is low or at normal rates. Therefore, this study shows that the TUM plant would be a good option to meet the needs of energy generation whilst having a minimal impact on river habitats and changes in fish species population in similar small rivers and streams.

Residential energy use in Mexico: Structure, evolution, environmental impacts, and savings potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masera, O.; Friedmann, R.; deBuen, O.

1993-05-01

This article examines the characteristics of residential energy use in Mexico, its environmental impacts, and the savings potential of the major end-uses. The main options and barriers to increase the efficiency of energy use are discussed. The energy analysis is based on a disaggregation of residential energy use by end-uses. The dynamics of the evolution of the residential energy sector during the past 20 years are also addressed when the information is available. Major areas for research and for innovative decision-making are identified and prioritized.

The potential environmental impacts and the siting of proposed nuclear power plants in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Zhongqi

1986-01-01

This paper reviews briefly the methodology of assessing environmental impacts from the nuclear power plants and analyses the potential radiological impacts on the environment from proposed nuclear power plants in China. Preliminary studies show that the environmental impacts of the effluents of routine release from PWRs to the proposed sites are extremely small, even if nuclear power plants are constructed either on the Bohai Sea shore with a narrow mouth or in the densely populated regions of Sunan. Thus, the suitability of sites depends mainly on the acceptability of possible exposure to the residents following postulated accidental release of radioactive materials. The paper also discusses relations between the nuclear plant siting and population distribution around the site and compares the distribution of the proposed sites in China with that of other countries sites in according to China actual situation, it is reasonable to adopt a prudent policy that the first series of nuclear power plants in China should be built in relatively low population areas

Histopathologic Findings of Potential Kidney Donors With Asymptomatic Microscopic Hematuria: Impact on Donation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, E A; Ali, T Z; Abdulbaki, A; Ibrahim, I A; Almanae, H M; Aleid, H A

2017-10-01

Isolated microscopic hematuria (IMH) is not uncommon in potential kidney donors. The aim was to study the kidney biopsy findings of potential kidney donors with IMH and the impact of the histopathologic diagnoses on the decision to accept or decline such donors from kidney donation. In this retrospective study, all the potential kidney donors with IMH were identified from the medical records of patients who underwent kidney biopsies between January 2010 and December 2016. Forty-five such individuals were identified. The mean age of these potential donors was 32.6 years and 76% were male. All of them had normal blood pressure and no significant proteinuria. Seventeen (38%) biopsies showed histopathologic abnormalities; thin basement membrane disease (n = 13; 28%) was the most common cause followed by immunoglobulin (Ig)A nephropathy (n = 4; 9%). Donors with abnormal biopsy findings were excluded from donation. However, 62% of the potential donors had normal kidney biopsy findings and were accepted for kidney donation. IMH justifies extensive work-up including kidney biopsy to identify donors who may have underlying significant glomerular pathology excluding them from kidney donation. On the other hand, kidney biopsy also helps in accepting the donors if it does not show significant abnormality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Martin; Mills, Michael; Toohey, Darin

2010-12-01

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. A global climate model predicts that emissions from a fleet of 1000 launches per year of suborbital rockets would create a persistent layer of black carbon particles in the northern stratosphere that could cause potentially significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical stratospheric ozone abundances are predicted to change as much as 1%, while polar ozone changes by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures change as much as one degree K regionally with significant impacts on polar sea ice fractions. After one decade of continuous launches, globally averaged radiative forcing from the black carbon would exceed the forcing from the emitted CO2 by a factor of about 105 and would be comparable to the radiative forcing estimated from current subsonic aviation.

Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

2013-08-30

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of electric vehicles on air quality in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Nan; Chen, Jen-Ping; Tsai, I-Chun; He, Qingyang; Chi, Szu-Yu; Lin, Yi-Chiu; Fu, Tzung-May

2016-10-01

The prospective impacts of electric vehicle (EV) penetration on the air quality in Taiwan were evaluated using an air quality model with the assumption of an ambitious replacement of current light-duty vehicles under different power generation scenarios. With full EV penetration (i.e., the replacement of all light-duty vehicles), CO, VOCs, NOx and PM2.5 emissions in Taiwan from a fleet of 20.6 million vehicles would be reduced by 1500, 165, 33.9 and 7.2Ggyr(-1), respectively, while electric sector NOx and SO2 emissions would be increased by up to 20.3 and 12.9Ggyr(-1), respectively, if the electricity to power EVs were provided by thermal power plants. The net impacts of these emission changes would be to reduce the annual mean surface concentrations of CO, VOCs, NOx and PM2.5 by about 260, 11.3, 3.3ppb and 2.1μgm(-3), respectively, but to increase SO2 by 0.1ppb. Larger reductions tend to occur at time and place of higher ambient concentrations and during high pollution events. Greater benefits would clearly be attained if clean energy sources were fully encouraged. EV penetration would also reduce the mean peak-time surface O3 concentrations by up to 7ppb across Taiwan with the exception of the center of metropolitan Taipei where the concentration increased by <2ppb. Furthermore, full EV penetration would reduce annual days of O3 pollution episodes by ~40% and PM2.5 pollution episodes by 6-10%. Our findings offer important insights into the air quality impacts of EV and can provide useful information for potential mitigation actions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of 20 Selected Fruits on Ethanol Metabolism: Potential Health Benefits and Harmful Impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu-Jie; Wang, Fang; Zhou, Yue; Li, Ya; Zhou, Tong; Zheng, Jie; Zhang, Jiao-Jiao; Li, Sha; Xu, Dong-Ping; Li, Hua-Bin

2016-04-01

The consumption of alcohol is often accompanied by other foods, such as fruits and vegetables. This study is aimed to investigate the effects of 20 selected fruits on ethanol metabolism to find out their potential health benefits and harmful impacts. The effects of the fruits on ethanol metabolism were characterized by the concentrations of ethanol and acetaldehyde in blood, as well as activities of alcohol dehydrogenase and acetaldehyde dehydrogenase in liver of mice. Furthermore, potential health benefits and harmful impacts of the fruits were evaluated by biochemical parameters including aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transferase (ALT), malondialdehyde, and superoxide dismutase. Generally, effects of these fruits on ethanol metabolism were very different. Some fruits (such as Citrus limon (yellow), Averrhoa carambola, Pyrus spp., and Syzygium samarangense) could decrease the concentration of ethanol in blood. In addition, several fruits (such as Cucumis melo) showed hepatoprotective effects by significantly decreasing AST or ALT level in blood, while some fruits (such as Averrhoa carambola) showed adverse effects. The results suggested that the consumption of alcohol should not be accompanied by some fruits, and several fruits could be developed as functional foods for the prevention and treatment of hangover and alcohol use disorder.

A search for Potential Impact Sites in Southern Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Rocca, M. C. L.

The Southern part of Argentina is composed of five Provinces; Tierra del Fuego, Santa Cruz, Chubut, Rio Negro and Neuquen. A search for potential impact sites was performed by the author through the examination of 76 color LANDSAT satellite images ( 1:250,000 - resolution = 250 meters ) at the Instituto Geografico Militar ( IGM ) of Buenos Aires city. When a potential candidate was found a more detailed study of the site was done. If available the radar X-SAR satellite images of the Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fur Luft-und Raumfahrt, (DLR), Berlin, Germany , were also examined. The final step was to perform a review of the available published geologic information of each site at the Servicio Geologico y Minero Argentino ( SEGEMAR ), ( =Geological Survey of Argentina ), in Buenos Aires. The resulting catalogue contains information about sites where possible simple crater or complex impact structures could be present. Each case demands future detailed and `in situ' research by an impact cratering specialist. --Tierra del Fuego: TF1 ) Ushuaia 5569-II, No 218. Cerro Taarsh, Estancia San Justo. Possible complex structure. Semi-circular area of concentric low ridges. Estimated diameter : 12 km. Probably very eroded. --Santa Cruz: SC1 ) Gobernador Gregores 4969-I, No 127. Estancia La Aragonesa Possible eroded complex structure. Circular area of low ridges, estimated diameter: 10 km.. Bull's eye like morphology. SC2 ) Gobernador Gregores 4969-I, No 127. Gran Altiplanicie Central. Possible simple crater in basalts. Diameter: 1 km.. SC3 ) Tres Lagos 4972-IV, No 106. Meseta del Bagual Chico. Possible perfectly circular simple crater in basalts. Diameter: 1.0 km.. SC4 )Paso Rio Bote 5172-II, No 20. Rio Pelque, Ruta Provincial No 5. A circular bowl-shaped structure is present on fluvial deposits of pleistocenic age. Diameter: 3.5 km.. SC5 ) Caleta Olivia 4769-II, No 28. North of Cerro Doce Grande. Possible complex structure of concentric circular rings of ridges. SC6 ) Caleta

Questions concerning the potential impact of glyphosate-based herbicides on amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Norman; Reichenbecher, Wolfram; Teichmann, Hanka; Tappeser, Beatrix; Lötters, Stefan

2013-08-01

Use of glyphosate-based herbicides is increasing worldwide. The authors review the available data related to potential impacts of these herbicides on amphibians and conduct a qualitative meta-analysis. Because little is known about environmental concentrations of glyphosate in amphibian habitats and virtually nothing is known about environmental concentrations of the substances added to the herbicide formulations that mainly contribute to adverse effects, glyphosate levels can only be seen as approximations for contamination with glyphosate-based herbicides. The impact on amphibians depends on the herbicide formulation, with different sensitivity of taxa and life stages. Effects on development of larvae apparently are the most sensitive endpoints to study. As with other contaminants, costressors mainly increase adverse effects. If and how glyphosate-based herbicides and other pesticides contribute to amphibian decline is not answerable yet due to missing data on how natural populations are affected. Amphibian risk assessment can only be conducted case-specifically, with consideration of the particular herbicide formulation. The authors recommend better monitoring of both amphibian populations and contamination of habitats with glyphosate-based herbicides, not just glyphosate, and suggest including amphibians in standardized test batteries to study at least dermal administration. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Potential impacts on groundwater resources of deep CO2 storage: natural analogues for assessing potential chemical effects

Science.gov (United States)

Lions, J.; Gale, I.; May, F.; Nygaard, E.; Ruetters, H.; Beaubien, S.; Sohrabi, M.; Hatzignatiou, D. G.; CO2GeoNet Members involved in the present study Team

2011-12-01

Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing atmospheric emissions of CO2 related to human activities. One of the main concerns associated with the geological storage of CO2 is that the CO2 may leak from the intended storage formation, migrate to the near-surface environment and, eventually, escape from the ground. This is a concern because such leakage may affect aquifers overlying the storage site and containing freshwater that may be used for drinking, industry and agriculture. The IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG) recently commissioned the CO2GeoNet Association to undertake a review of published and unpublished literature on this topic with the aim of summarizing 'state of the art' knowledge and identifying knowledge gaps and research priorities in this field. Work carried out by various CO2GeoNet members was also used in this study. This study identifies possible areas of conflict by combining available datasets to map the global and regional superposition of deep saline formations (DSF) suitable for CO2 storage and overlying fresh groundwater resources. A scenario classification is developed for the various geological settings where conflict could occur. The study proposes two approaches to address the potential impact mechanisms of CO2 storage projects on the hydrodynamics and chemistry of shallow groundwater. The first classifies and synthesizes changes of water quality observed in natural/industrial analogues and in laboratory experiments. The second reviews hydrodynamic and geochemical models, including coupled multiphase flow and reactive transport. Various models are discussed in terms of their advantages and limitations, with conclusions on possible impacts on groundwater resources. Possible mitigation options to stop or control CO2 leakage are assessed. The effect of CO2 pressure in the host DSF and the potential effects on shallow aquifers are also examined. The study provides a review of

Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts in Oregon Coastal Counties from Two Future Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-07-01

This analysis examines the employment and potential economic impacts of large-scale deployment of offshore wind technology off the coast of Oregon. This analysis examines impacts within the seven Oregon coastal counties: Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Lane, Douglas, Coos, and Curry. The impacts highlighted here can be used in county, state, and regional planning discussions and can be scaled to get a general sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other deployment scenarios.

Potential impacts to perennial springs from tar sand mining, processing, and disposal on the Tavaputs Plateau, Utah, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, William P.; Frederick, Logan E.; Millington, Mallory R.; Vala, David; Reese, Barbara K.; Freedman, Dina R.; Stenten, Christina J.; Trauscht, Jacob S.; Tingey, Christopher E.; Kip Solomon, D.; Fernandez, Diego P.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2015-01-01

Similar to fracking, the development of tar sand mining in the U.S. has moved faster than understanding of potential water quality impacts. Potential water quality impacts of tar sand mining, processing, and disposal to springs in canyons incised approximately 200 m into the Tavaputs Plateau, at the Uinta Basin southern rim, Utah, USA, were evaluated by hydrogeochemical sampling to determine potential sources of recharge, and chemical thermodynamic estimations to determine potential changes in transfer of bitumen compounds to water. Because the ridgetops in an area of the Tavaputs Plateau named PR Spring are starting to be developed for their tar sand resource, there is concern for potential hydrologic connection between these ridgetops and perennial springs in adjacent canyons on which depend ranching families, livestock, wildlife and recreationalists. Samples were collected from perennial springs to examine possible progression with elevation of parameters such as temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, isotopic tracers of phase change, water-rock interaction, and age since recharge. The groundwater age dates indicate that the springs are recharged locally. The progression of hydrogeochemical parameters with elevation, in combination with the relatively short groundwater residence times, indicate that the recharge zone for these springs includes the surrounding ridges, and thereby suggests a hydrologic connection between the mining, processing, disposal area and the springs. Estimations based on chemical thermodynamic approaches indicate that bitumen compounds will have greatly enhanced solubility in water that comes into contact with the residual bitumen–solvent mixture in disposed tailings relative to water that currently comes into contact with natural tar. - Highlights: • The potential water quality impacts of the first US tar sand development are considered. • Analyses of perennial springs in adjacent canyons indicate hydrologic

Potential impacts to perennial springs from tar sand mining, processing, and disposal on the Tavaputs Plateau, Utah, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, William P.; Frederick, Logan E.; Millington, Mallory R. [University of Utah, Department of Geology & Geophysics, Salt lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Vala, David [Murray High School, Murray, UT 84107 (United States); Reese, Barbara K. [Butler Middle School, Cottonwood Heights, UT 84121 (United States); Freedman, Dina R. [Hillside Middle School, Salt Lake City, UT 84108 (United States); Stenten, Christina J. [Draper Park Middle School, Draper, UT 84020 (United States); Trauscht, Jacob S.; Tingey, Christopher E.; Kip Solomon, D.; Fernandez, Diego P.; Bowen, Gabriel J. [University of Utah, Department of Geology & Geophysics, Salt lake City, UT 84112 (United States)

2015-11-01

Similar to fracking, the development of tar sand mining in the U.S. has moved faster than understanding of potential water quality impacts. Potential water quality impacts of tar sand mining, processing, and disposal to springs in canyons incised approximately 200 m into the Tavaputs Plateau, at the Uinta Basin southern rim, Utah, USA, were evaluated by hydrogeochemical sampling to determine potential sources of recharge, and chemical thermodynamic estimations to determine potential changes in transfer of bitumen compounds to water. Because the ridgetops in an area of the Tavaputs Plateau named PR Spring are starting to be developed for their tar sand resource, there is concern for potential hydrologic connection between these ridgetops and perennial springs in adjacent canyons on which depend ranching families, livestock, wildlife and recreationalists. Samples were collected from perennial springs to examine possible progression with elevation of parameters such as temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, isotopic tracers of phase change, water-rock interaction, and age since recharge. The groundwater age dates indicate that the springs are recharged locally. The progression of hydrogeochemical parameters with elevation, in combination with the relatively short groundwater residence times, indicate that the recharge zone for these springs includes the surrounding ridges, and thereby suggests a hydrologic connection between the mining, processing, disposal area and the springs. Estimations based on chemical thermodynamic approaches indicate that bitumen compounds will have greatly enhanced solubility in water that comes into contact with the residual bitumen–solvent mixture in disposed tailings relative to water that currently comes into contact with natural tar. - Highlights: • The potential water quality impacts of the first US tar sand development are considered. • Analyses of perennial springs in adjacent canyons indicate hydrologic

Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Okell, Lucy C

2016-01-06

Artemisinin and partner drug resistant malaria parasites have emerged in Southeast Asia. If resistance were to emerge in Africa it could have a devastating impact on malaria-related morbidity and mortality. This study estimates the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance on disease burden in Africa if it were to emerge. Using data from Asia and Africa, five possible artemisinin and partner drug resistance scenarios are characterized. An individual-based malaria transmission model is used to estimate the impact of each resistance scenario on clinical incidence and parasite prevalence across Africa. Artemisinin resistance is characterized by slow parasite clearance and partner drug resistance is associated with late clinical failure or late parasitological failure. Scenarios with high levels of recrudescent infections resulted in far greater increases in clinical incidence compared to scenarios with high levels of slow parasite clearance. Across Africa, it is estimated that artemisinin and partner drug resistance at levels similar to those observed in Oddar Meanchey province in Cambodia could result in an additional 78 million cases over a 5 year period, a 7% increase in cases compared to a scenario with no resistance. A scenario with high levels of slow clearance but no recrudescence resulted in an additional 10 million additional cases over the same period. Artemisinin resistance is potentially a more pressing concern than partner drug resistance due to the lack of viable alternatives. However, it is predicted that a failing partner drug will result in greater increases in malaria cases and morbidity than would be observed from artemisinin resistance only.

Unstructured Grid Adaptation: Status, Potential Impacts, and Recommended Investments Toward CFD Vision 2030

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Michael A.; Krakos, Joshua A.; Michal, Todd; Loseille, Adrien; Alonso, Juan J.

2016-01-01

Unstructured grid adaptation is a powerful tool to control discretization error for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It has enabled key increases in the accuracy, automation, and capacity of some fluid simulation applications. Slotnick et al. provides a number of case studies in the CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences to illustrate the current state of CFD capability and capacity. The authors forecast the potential impact of emerging High Performance Computing (HPC) environments forecast in the year 2030 and identify that mesh generation and adaptivity continue to be significant bottlenecks in the CFD work flow. These bottlenecks may persist because very little government investment has been targeted in these areas. To motivate investment, the impacts of improved grid adaptation technologies are identified. The CFD Vision 2030 Study roadmap and anticipated capabilities in complementary disciplines are quoted to provide context for the progress made in grid adaptation in the past fifteen years, current status, and a forecast for the next fifteen years with recommended investments. These investments are specific to mesh adaptation and impact other aspects of the CFD process. Finally, a strategy is identified to diffuse grid adaptation technology into production CFD work flows.

Modeling impacts of human footprint and soil variability on the potential distribution of invasive plant species in different biomes

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Yu, Fei-Hai

2017-11-01

Human footprint and soil variability may be important in shaping the spread of invasive plant species (IPS). However, until now, there is little knowledge on how human footprint and soil variability affect the potential distribution of IPS in different biomes. We used Maxent modeling to project the potential distribution of 29 IPS with wide distributions and long introduction histories in China based on various combinations of climatic correlates, soil characteristics and human footprint. Then, we evaluated the relative importance of each type of environmental variables (climate, soil and human footprint) as well as the difference in range and similarity of the potential distribution of IPS between different biomes. Human footprint and soil variables contributed to the prediction of the potential distribution of IPS, and different types of biomes had varying responses and degrees of impacts from the tested variables. Human footprint and soil variability had the highest tendency to increase the potential distribution of IPS in Montane Grasslands and Shrublands. We propose to integrate the assessment in impacts of human footprint and soil variability on the potential distribution of IPS in different biomes into the prevention and control of plant invasion.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential impact of diet on treatment effect from anti-TNF drugs in inflammatory bowel disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Vibeke; Hansen, Axel Kornerup; Heitmann, Berit Lilienthal

2017-01-01

We wanted to investigate the current knowledge on the impact of diet on anti-TNF response in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), to identify dietary factors that warrant further investigations in relation to anti-TNF treatment response, and, finally, to discuss potential strategies for such invest......We wanted to investigate the current knowledge on the impact of diet on anti-TNF response in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), to identify dietary factors that warrant further investigations in relation to anti-TNF treatment response, and, finally, to discuss potential strategies...... for such investigations. PubMed was searched using specified search terms. One small prospective study on diet and anti-TNF treatment in 56 patients with CD found similar remission rates after 56 weeks among 32 patients with good compliance that received concomitant enteral nutrition and 24 with poor compliance that had......% CI: 1.73–4.31, p diet on anti-TNF treatment response for clinical use is scarce. Here we propose a mechanism by which Western style diet high in meat and low in fibre may promote colonic...

Menu labeling as a potential strategy for combating the obesity epidemic: a health impact assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Tony; Jarosz, Christopher J; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E

2009-09-01

We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior.

Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

Science.gov (United States)

Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

2016-04-01

Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

2017-11-01

In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

2010-01-01

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

The occurrence and potential ecological risk assessment of bauxite mine-impacted water and sediments in Kuantan, Pahang,Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Rahman, Muhammad Syazwan Abd; Madzin, Zafira; Jusop, Shamshuddin; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Ariffin, Mariani; Z, Mohd Syakirin Md

2017-01-01

Recent bauxite mining activities in the vicinity of Kuantan, Pahang, have been associated with apparent environmental quality degradation and have raised environmental concerns among the public. This study was carried out to evaluate the overall ecological impacts on water and sediment quality from the bauxite mining activities. Water and sediment samples were collected at seven sampling locations within the bauxite mining areas between June and December 2015. The water samples were analyzed for water quality index (WQI) and distribution of major and trace element geochemistry. Sediment samples were evaluated based on geochemical indices, i.e., the enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ). Potential ecological risk index was estimated to assess the degree to which sediments of the mine-impacted areas have been contaminated with heavy metals. The results showed that WQIs of some locations were classified as slightly polluted and contained metal contents exceeding the recommended guideline values. The EFs indicated minimal to moderate enrichment of metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Mn, As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co, and Sr) in the sediments. I geo showed slightly to partially polluted sediments with respect to As at some locations. The potential ecological risk index (RI) showed that As posed the highest potential ecological risk with RI of 52.35-60.92 at two locations, while other locations indicated low risk. The findings from this study have demonstrated the impact of recent bauxite mining activities, which might be of importance to the local communities and relevant authorities to initiate immediate rehabilitation phase of the impacted area.

Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hodges, D.G.; Belli, K.L.; Watson, W.F.; Regens, J.L.

1994-01-01

Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO 2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

Potential ash impact from Antarctic volcanoes: Insights from Deception Island's most recent eruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Geyer, A; Marti, A; Giralt, S; Folch, A

2017-11-28

Ash emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions may disperse over vast areas of the globe posing a threat to human health and infrastructures and causing significant disruption to air traffic. In Antarctica, at least five volcanoes have reported historic activity. However, no attention has been paid to the potential socio-economic and environmental consequences of an ash-forming eruption occurring at high southern latitudes. This work shows how ash from Antarctic volcanoes may pose a higher threat than previously believed. As a case study, we evaluate the potential impacts of ash for a given eruption scenario from Deception Island, one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica. Numerical simulations using the novel MMB-MONARCH-ASH model demonstrate that volcanic ash emitted from Antarctic volcanoes could potentially encircle the globe, leading to significant consequences for global aviation safety. Results obtained recall the need for performing proper hazard assessment on Antarctic volcanoes, and are crucial for understanding the patterns of ash distribution at high southern latitudes with strong implications for tephrostratigraphy, which is pivotal to synchronize palaeoclimatic records.

Integrated Application of Remote Sensing, GIS and Hydrological Modeling to Estimate the Potential Impact Area of Earthquake-Induced Dammed Lakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Cao

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Dammed lakes are an important secondary hazard caused by earthquakes. They can induce further damage to nearby humans. Current hydrology calculation research on dammed lakes usually lacks spatial expressive ability and cannot accurately conduct impact assessment without the support of remote sensing, which obtains important characteristic information of dammed lakes. The current study aims to address the issues of the potential impact area estimate of earthquake-induced dammed lakes by combining remote sensing (RS, a geographic information system (GIS, and hydrological modeling. The Tangjiashan dammed lake induced by the Wenchuan earthquake was selected as the case for study. The elevation-versus-reservoir capacity curve was first calculated using the seed-growing algorithm based on digital elevation model (DEM data. The simulated annealing algorithm was applied to train the hydrological modeling parameters according to the historical hydrologic data. Then, the downstream water elevation variational process under different collapse capacity conditions was performed based on the obtained parameters. Finally, the downstream potential impact area was estimated by the highest water elevation values at different hydrologic sections. Results show that a flood with a collapse elevation of at least 680 m will impact the entire downstream region of Beichuan town. We conclude that spatial information technology combined with hydrological modeling can accurately predict and demonstrate the potential impact area with limited data resources. This paper provides a better guide for future immediate responses to dammed lake hazard mitigation.

The impact of sustainability criteria on the costs and potentials of bioenergy production. An exploration of the impact of the implementation of sustainability criteria on the costs and potential of bioenergy production, applied for case studies in Brazil and Ukraine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smeets, E.; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I.

2005-02-01

The goal of this study is to make a first attempt to analyse the impact on the potential (quantity) and the costs (per unit) of bioenergy that the compliance with various sustainability criteria brings along. The nature of this work is exploratory. Because of the broad set of issues covered very little work has been published on which we could build. Ukraine and Brazil are used as case studies, because both regions are identified as promising bioenergy producers. This study is part of the FAIR Biotrade project, which is aimed to identify and quantify the impact of sustainability criteria on the potential of bioenergy. Previous work includes an identification of sustainability criteria relevant for bioenergy, an assessment of the environmental and economic costs of long distance biotrade and an assessment of bioenergy production potentials in 2050 in various world regions. In section 2 the approach is presented which is used to select and quantify the impact of sustainability criteria on bioenergy production. In section 3 the selection of the various sustainability criteria is described in detail, followed by a detailed description of how the various socials, ecological and economical sustainability criteria are operationalised. In section 4 (intermediate) results are presented for each sustainability criterium. In section 5 final results are presented, followed by a discussion and by conclusions (section 6)

Potential Impact of Diet on Treatment Effect from Anti-TNF Drugs in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vibeke Andersen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We wanted to investigate the current knowledge on the impact of diet on anti-TNF response in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD, to identify dietary factors that warrant further investigations in relation to anti-TNF treatment response, and, finally, to discuss potential strategies for such investigations. PubMed was searched using specified search terms. One small prospective study on diet and anti-TNF treatment in 56 patients with CD found similar remission rates after 56 weeks among 32 patients with good compliance that received concomitant enteral nutrition and 24 with poor compliance that had no dietary restrictions (78% versus 67%, p = 0.51. A meta-analysis of 295 patients found higher odds of achieving clinical remission and remaining in clinical remission among patients on combination therapy with specialised enteral nutrition and Infliximab (IFX compared with IFX monotherapy (OR 2.73; 95% CI: 1.73–4.31, p < 0.01, OR 2.93; 95% CI: 1.66–5.17, p < 0.01, respectively. In conclusion, evidence-based knowledge on impact of diet on anti-TNF treatment response for clinical use is scarce. Here we propose a mechanism by which Western style diet high in meat and low in fibre may promote colonic inflammation and potentially impact treatment response to anti-TNF drugs. Further studies using hypothesis-driven and data-driven strategies in prospective observational, animal and interventional studies are warranted.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Evaluating potential spectral impacts of various artificial lights on melatonin suppression, photosynthesis, and star visibility.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Aubé

Full Text Available Artificial light at night can be harmful to the environment, and interferes with fauna and flora, star visibility, and human health. To estimate the relative impact of a lighting device, its radiant power, angular photometry and detailed spectral power distribution have to be considered. In this paper we focus on the spectral power distribution. While specific spectral characteristics can be considered harmful during the night, they can be considered advantageous during the day. As an example, while blue-rich Metal Halide lamps can be problematic for human health, star visibility and vegetation photosynthesis during the night, they can be highly appropriate during the day for plant growth and light therapy. In this paper we propose three new indices to characterize lamp spectra. These indices have been designed to allow a quick estimation of the potential impact of a lamp spectrum on melatonin suppression, photosynthesis, and star visibility. We used these new indices to compare various lighting technologies objectively. We also considered the transformation of such indices according to the propagation of light into the atmosphere as a function of distance to the observer. Among other results, we found that low pressure sodium, phosphor-converted amber light emitting diodes (LED and LED 2700 K lamps filtered with the new Ledtech's Equilib filter showed a lower or equivalent potential impact on melatonin suppression and star visibility in comparison to high pressure sodium lamps. Low pressure sodium, LED 5000 K-filtered and LED 2700 K-filtered lamps had a lower impact on photosynthesis than did high pressure sodium lamps. Finally, we propose these indices as new standards for the lighting industry to be used in characterizing their lighting technologies. We hope that their use will favor the design of new environmentally and health-friendly lighting technologies.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xue; Ge, Xuezhen; Chen, Linghong; Zhang, Linjing; Wang, Tao; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-28

Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N - 51° N and 74° E - 134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N - 53° N and 74° E - 134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peste, Filipa; Paula, Anabela; Silva, Luís P. da; Bernardino, Joana; Pereira, Pedro; Mascarenhas, Miguel; Costa, Hugo; Vieira, José; Bastos, Carlos; Fonseca, Carlos; Pereira, Maria João Ramos

2015-01-01

Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings

How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peste, Filipa, E-mail: filipapeste@gmail.com [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Paula, Anabela [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Luís P. da [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); MARE and CEF, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra (Portugal); Bernardino, Joana; Pereira, Pedro [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Mascarenhas, Miguel [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Costa, Hugo [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Vieira, José; Bastos, Carlos [Department of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics / IEETA, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Fonseca, Carlos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Maria João Ramos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); PPGBAN, Department of Zoology, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); PPGEC, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil)

2015-02-15

Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings.

Potential impact of tsetse fly control involving the sterile insect technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feldmann, U.; Dyck, V.A.; Mattioli, R.C.; Jannin, J.

2005-01-01

Hunger and poverty persist in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Many affected communities could produce enough food for themselves, and even for sale, if they had the basics - livestock and crops. In most of these communities, the presence of tsetse flies and the disease they vector, trypanosomosis, prevents optimal productive livestock-keeping and mixed farming, resulting in inadequate local food production. Since a vast majority of the rural communities depends on agriculture, the removal of a key development problem like tsetse and trypanosomosis (T and T) will permit increased local agricultural production, socio-economic and market development, and alleviate hunger and poverty. A sustained alleviation, if possible a complete, lasting removal of the T and T problem, is therefore considered a prerequisite to rural self-sufficient agriculture, in which productive livestock can provide milk, meat, draught power to cultivate the land, and eventually generate higher income and market opportunities. Hence the removal of such a key problem would catalyse overall development in rural areas. However, the poverty and food security status of communities in Africa is rather heterogeneous, and reflects the impact of various constraining factors, including T and T on the current agricultural production process and human well-being, as well as on the overall development potential. Correspondingly, the benefits to sustainable agriculture and rural development (SARD), resulting from an elimination of the T and T problem, will also vary from area to area. In view of the substantial finding required over the next decades to address this key problem, and the need for early 'success stories' that show tangible benefits, it is important that the initial T and T control areas are carefully selected according to technical feasibility, and to the predicted potential in the context of SARD. Trypanosomosis is a major, but technically solvable, development problem, and the effectiveness of the

Potential Impact on Clinical Decision Making via a Genome-Wide Expression Profiling: A Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun Kim

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Management of men with prostate cancer is fraught with uncertainty as physicians and patients balance efficacy with potential toxicity and diminished quality of life. Utilization of genomics as a prognostic biomarker has improved the informed decision-making process by enabling more rationale treatment choices. Recently investigations have begun to determine whether genomic information from tumor transcriptome data can be used to impact clinical decision-making beyond prognosis. Here we discuss the potential of genomics to alter management of a patient who presented with high-risk prostate adenocarcinoma. We suggest that this information help selecting patients for advanced imaging, chemotherapies, or clinical trial.

The impact of the glial spatial buffering on the K(+) Nernst potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Noori, H R

2011-09-01

Astrocytes play a critical role in CNS metabolism, regulation of volume and ion homeostasis of the interstitial space. Of special relevance is their clearance of K(+) that is released by active neurons into the extracellular space. Mathematical analysis of a modified Nernst equation for the electrochemical equilibrium of neuronal plasma membranes, suggests that K(+) uptake by glial cells is not only relevant during neuronal activity but also has a non-neglectable impact on the basic electrical membrane properties, specifically the resting membrane potential, of neurons and might be clinically valuable as a factor in the genetics and epigenetics of the epilepsy and tuberous sclerosis complex.

The potential impacts of grid-connected distributed generation and how to address them: A review of technical and non-technical factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Passey, Robert; Spooner, Ted; MacGill, Iain; Watt, Muriel; Syngellakis, Katerina

2011-01-01

Distributed generation is being deployed at increasing levels of penetration on electricity grids worldwide. It can have positive impacts on the network, but also negative impacts if integration is not properly managed. This is especially true of photovoltaics, in part because it's output fluctuates significantly and in part because it is being rapidly deployed in many countries. Potential positive impacts on grid operation can include reduced network flows and hence reduced losses and voltage drops. Potential negative impacts at high penetrations include voltage fluctuations, voltage rise and reverse power flow, power fluctuations, power factor changes, frequency regulation and harmonics, unintentional islanding, fault currents and grounding issues. This paper firstly reviews each of these impacts in detail, along with the current technical approaches available to address them. The second section of this paper discusses key non-technical factors, such as appropriate policies and institutional frameworks, which are essential to effectively coordinate the development and deployment of the different technical solutions most appropriate for particular jurisdictions. These frameworks will be different for different jurisdictions, and so no single approach will be appropriate worldwide. - Highlights: → Distributed generation can have both positive and negative impacts on networks. → Technical solutions to address these negative impacts are discussed. → The required appropriate policies and institutional frameworks are discussed.

76 FR 70429 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement and Notice of Potential Floodplain...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-14

..., financial, environmental, and other considerations. DOE selects projects demonstrating the most promise when... (10 CFR part 1021), to assess the potential environmental impacts of providing financial assistance...-Combustion CO 2 Capture and Sequestration Project (Parish PCCS Project) for a financial assistance award...

Potential radiological impacts of upper-bound operational accidents during proposed waste disposal alternatives for Hanford defense waste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mishima, J.; Sutter, S.L.; Hawley, K.A.; Jenkins, C.E.; Napier, B.A.

1986-02-01

The Geologic Disposal Alternative, the In-Place Stabilization and Disposal Alternative, and the Reference Disposal Alternative are being evaluated for disposal of Hanford defense high-level, transuranic, and tank wastes. Environmental impacts associated with disposal of these wastes according to the alternatives listed above include potential doses to the downwind population from operation during the application of the handling and processing techniques comprising each disposal alternative. Scenarios for operational accident and abnormal operational events are postulated, on the basis of the currently available information, for the application of the techniques employed for each waste class for each disposal alternative. From these scenarios, an upper-bound airborne release of radioactive material was postulated for each waste class and disposal alternative. Potential downwind radiologic impacts were calculated from these upper-bound events. In all three alternatives, the single postulated event with the largest calculated radiologic impact for any waste class is an explosion of a mixture of ferri/ferro cyanide precipitates during the mechanical retrieval or microwave drying of the salt cake in single shell waste tanks. The anticipated downwind dose (70-year dose commitment) to the maximally exposed individual is 3 rem with a total population dose of 7000 man-rem. The same individual would receive 7 rem from natural background radiation during the same time period, and the same population would receive 3,000,000 man-rem. Radiological impacts to the public from all other postulated accidents would be less than that from this accident; furthermore, the radiological impacts resulting from this accident would be less than one-half that from the natural background radiation dose.

Potential radiological impacts of upper-bound operational accidents during proposed waste disposal alternatives for Hanford defense waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, J.; Sutter, S.L.; Hawley, K.A.; Jenkins, C.E.; Napier, B.A.

1986-02-01

The Geologic Disposal Alternative, the In-Place Stabilization and Disposal Alternative, and the Reference Disposal Alternative are being evaluated for disposal of Hanford defense high-level, transuranic, and tank wastes. Environmental impacts associated with disposal of these wastes according to the alternatives listed above include potential doses to the downwind population from operation during the application of the handling and processing techniques comprising each disposal alternative. Scenarios for operational accident and abnormal operational events are postulated, on the basis of the currently available information, for the application of the techniques employed for each waste class for each disposal alternative. From these scenarios, an upper-bound airborne release of radioactive material was postulated for each waste class and disposal alternative. Potential downwind radiologic impacts were calculated from these upper-bound events. In all three alternatives, the single postulated event with the largest calculated radiologic impact for any waste class is an explosion of a mixture of ferri/ferro cyanide precipitates during the mechanical retrieval or microwave drying of the salt cake in single shell waste tanks. The anticipated downwind dose (70-year dose commitment) to the maximally exposed individual is 3 rem with a total population dose of 7000 man-rem. The same individual would receive 7 rem from natural background radiation during the same time period, and the same population would receive 3,000,000 man-rem. Radiological impacts to the public from all other postulated accidents would be less than that from this accident; furthermore, the radiological impacts resulting from this accident would be less than one-half that from the natural background radiation dose

Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slovic, P.

1989-01-01

This paper addresses the potential for the proposed Yucca Mountain repository to have serious adverse economic impacts on the city of Las Vegas and the State of Nevada. Adverse economic impacts may be expected to result from two related social processes. One has to do with perceptions of risk and socially amplified reactions to unfortunate events associated with the repository (major and minor accidents, discoveries of radiation releases, evidence of mismanagement, attempts to sabotage or disrupt the facility, etc.). The second process that may trigger significant adverse impacts is that of stigmatization. The conceptual underpinnings of risk perception, social amplification, and stigma are discussed in this paper and empirical data are presented to demonstrate how nuclear images associated with Las Vegas and the State of Nevada might trigger adverse effects on tourism, migration, and business development

Micro-physics of aircraft-generated aerosols and their potential impact on heterogeneous plume chemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaercher, B; Luo, B P [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

1998-12-31

Answers are attempted to give to open questions concerning physico-chemical processes in near-field aircraft plumes, with emphasis on their potential impact on subsequent heterogeneous chemistry. Research issues concerning the nucleation of aerosols and their interactions among themselves and with exhaust gases are summarized. Microphysical properties of contrail ice particles, formation of liquid ternary mixtures, and nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate particles in contrails are examined and possible implications for heterogeneous plume chemistry are discussed. (author) 19 refs.

Micro-physics of aircraft-generated aerosols and their potential impact on heterogeneous plume chemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaercher, B.; Luo, B.P. [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

1997-12-31

Answers are attempted to give to open questions concerning physico-chemical processes in near-field aircraft plumes, with emphasis on their potential impact on subsequent heterogeneous chemistry. Research issues concerning the nucleation of aerosols and their interactions among themselves and with exhaust gases are summarized. Microphysical properties of contrail ice particles, formation of liquid ternary mixtures, and nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate particles in contrails are examined and possible implications for heterogeneous plume chemistry are discussed. (author) 19 refs.

High volume hydraulic fracturing operations: potential impacts on surface water and human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Mrdjen, Igor; Lee, Jiyoung

2016-08-01

High volume, hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) processes, used to extract natural gas and oil from underground shale deposits, pose many potential hazards to the environment and human health. HVHF can negatively affect the environment by contaminating soil, water, and air matrices with potential pollutants. Due to the relatively novel nature of the process, hazards to surface waters and human health are not well known. The purpose of this article is to link the impacts of HVHF operations on surface water integrity, with human health consequences. Surface water contamination risks include: increased structural failure rates of unconventional wells, issues with wastewater treatment, and accidental discharge of contaminated fluids. Human health risks associated with exposure to surface water contaminated with HVHF chemicals include increased cancer risk and turbidity of water, leading to increased pathogen survival time. Future research should focus on modeling contamination spread throughout the environment, and minimizing occupational exposure to harmful chemicals.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Wang

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure

The Radioactive Legacy of the Russian Pacific Fleet Operations and its Potential Impact on Neighboring Countries. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Compton, K. L.; Novikov, V.M.; Parker, F.L.; Sivintsev, Y.U.

2003-01-01

There have been extensive studies of the current and potential environmental impact of Russian Northern fleet activities. However, despite the fact that the total number of ships in both fleets are comparable, there have been very few studies published in the open literature of the impact of the Pacific fleet. This study of the Pacific fleet's impact on neighboring countries was undertaken to partially remedy this lack of analysis. This study is focused on an evaluation of the inventory of major sources of radioactive material associated with the decommissioning of nuclear submarines, and an evaluation of releases to the atmosphere and their long-range (>100km) transboundary transport

Analysis of the Potential Impacts on China’s Industrial Structure in Energy Consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yushen Tian

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Industrial structure is one of the main factors that determine energy consumption. Based on China’s energy consumption in 2015 and the goals in 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (The 13th Five-Year Plan, this paper established an input–output fuzzy multi-objective optimization model to estimate the potential impacts of China’s industrial structure on energy consumption in 2015. Results showed that adjustments to industrial structure could save energy by 19% (1129.17 million ton standard coal equivalent (Mtce. Second, China’s equipment manufacturing industry has a large potential to save energy. Third, the development of several high energy intensive and high carbon intensive sectors needs to be strictly controlled, including Sector 25 (electricity, heat production, and supply industry, Sector 11 (manufacture of paper and stationery, printing, and Sector 14 (non-metallic mineral products industry. Fourth, the territory industry in China has a great potential for energy saving, while its internal structure still needs to be upgraded. Finally, we provide policy suggestions that may be adopted to reduce energy consumption by adjusting China’s industrial structure.

Harvest residue removal and soil compaction impact forest productivity and recovery: Potential implications for bioenergy harvests

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda T. Curzon; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of management on forest structure and function is increasingly important in light of projected increases in both natural and anthropogenic disturbance severity and frequency with global environmental change. We examined potential impacts of the procurement of forest-derived bioenergy, a change in land use that has been suggested as a climate...

Potential ecological impacts of an oil spill in the Florida Keys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, E.A.; Swain, H.M.

1991-01-01

The Florida Keys are a unique ecosystem of natural communities, natural resources, and high biodiversity. The strong emphasis placed on the protection of the environment is reflected in the wide variety of parks and protected areas. The possibility of a major oil spill from extensive tanker and freighter traffic in the Florida Straits is cause for concern since all of the natural communities and associated biota in the coastal and marine environments are vulnerable to oiling. This paper will review and synthesize available information and present new data concerning the potential ecological impacts of a major spill in the Florida Keys. The review will focus on: the distribution of natural communities; the presence of endangered species; the location of parks and protected areas; and the abundance of natural resources

Environmental Degradation: A Review on the Potential Impact of River Morphology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Awang Ali Awang Nasrizal

2017-01-01

Full Text Available River morphology involves the lateral migration of matters deposited by flowing water in the river channel across its floodplain. This is driven by the erosion along the river banks and point bar deposition over time. This paper presents a review on river morphology studies and its potential impact to the society. The reviewed studies include mathematical models and computer simulation such as FLUVIAL-11 and RVR Meander Package that are significant to illustrate a continuous research development on channel adjustment. The findings also shows that a lot more area can still be explored to aid the fundamental of understanding river morphology and that East Malaysia will provide a good platform for the researchers to investigate the lateral migration of a river due to its diversity environment.

Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

Science.gov (United States)

Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

2004-01-01

Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slovic, P.; Layman, M.; Kraus, N.; Flynn, J.; Chalmers, J.; Gesell, G.

1991-01-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, upon tourism, retirement and job-related migration, and business development in Las Vegas and the state. Adverse impacts may be expected to result from perceptions of risk, stigmatization, and socially amplified reactions to 'unfortunate events' associated with the repository (major and minor accidents, discoveries of radiation releases, evidence of mismanagement, attempts to sabotage or disrupt the facility, etc.). The conceptual underpinnings of risk perception, stigmatization, and social amplification are discussed and empirical data are presented to demonstrate how nuclear images associated with Las Vegas and the State of Nevada might trigger adverse economic effects. The possibility that intense negative imagery associated with the repository may cause significant harm to Nevada's economy can no longer be ignored by serious attempts to assess the risks and impacts of this unique facility. The behavioral processes described here appear relevant as well to the social impact assessment of any proposed facility that produces, uses, transports, or disposes of hazardous materials

Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada.

Science.gov (United States)

Slovic, P; Layman, M; Kraus, N; Flynn, J; Chalmers, J; Gesell, G

1991-12-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, upon tourism, retirement and job-related migration, and business development in Las Vegas and the state. Adverse impacts may be expected to result from perceptions of risk, stigmatization, and socially amplified reactions to "unfortunate events" associated with the repository (major and minor accidents, discoveries of radiation releases, evidence of mismanagement, attempts to sabotage or disrupt the facility, etc.). The conceptual underpinnings of risk perception, stigmatization, and social amplification are discussed and empirical data are presented to demonstrate how nuclear images associated with Las Vegas and the State of Nevada might trigger adverse economic effects. The possibility that intense negative imagery associated with the repository may cause significant harm to Nevada's economy can no longer be ignored by serious attempts to assess the risks and impacts of this unique facility. The behavioral processes described here appear relevant as well to the social impact assessment of any proposed facility that produces, uses, transports, or disposes of hazardous materials.

Topical session proceedings of the 4. IGSC meeting on: the potential impacts on repository safety from potential partitioning and transmutation programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wollrath, Juergen; Voinis, Sylvie; Hadermann, Joerg; Van Luik, Abraham E.

2003-01-01

/or vitrified high-level waste. Thus, a Topical Session that focused on 'The potential impacts on repository safety from a potential P and T programme' was organised in the framework of the 4. plenary meeting of the IGSC (Integration Group for the Safety Case). This Topical Session sought to create IGSC awareness regarding potential issues involving P and T, other potential fuel cycle changes, and a repository safety case. The Topical Session focused on the recent scientific developments in potential national P and T strategies, and on international research on P and T and the potential impacts of P and T deployment on repository long-term performance and safety. 53 participants represented several national waste management organisations, regulatory authorities, and research institutions from 16 OECD member countries, IAEA and EC. The Topical Session was split in three parts: - Part A was related to national P and T strategies (e.g. which radionuclide are affected by P and T; implication on step-wise decision-making, what are the changes in potential doses...) - Part B consisted of EC and NEA/NDC presentations on the technical bases of P and T; (e.g. what is the resulting inventory of P and T, what is the schedule regarding developing and deploying P and T processes?) and, based on background provided by the previous presentations, - Part C was aimed at discussing the impact of P and T strategies on IGSC-related issues, and agreeing to key messages to be delivered to the RWMC. The current synthesis presented in part A of this document is aimed at briefly reflecting the material presented at the Topical Session and providing a short overview of the main outcomes of its discussions. The written contributions are compiled as-received without further elaboration, either as presentations or papers, in part B of the document. Part C gives the list of participants at this Topical Session

Health Impact Assessment Practice and Potential for Integration within Environmental Impact and Strategic Environmental Assessments in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Linzalone, Nunzia; Assennato, Giorgio; Ballarini, Adele; Cadum, Ennio; Cirillo, Mario; Cori, Liliana; De Maio, Francesca; Musmeci, Loredana; Natali, Marinella; Rieti, Sabrina; Soggiu, Maria Eleonora; Bianchi, Fabrizio

2014-01-01

Avoiding or minimizing potential environmental impact is the driving idea behind protecting a population’s health via Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs). However, both are often carried out without any systematic approach. This paper describes the findings of a review of HIA, EIA and SEA experiences carried out by the authors, who act as institutional competent subjects at the national and regional levels in Italy. The analysis of how health is tackled in EIA and SEA procedures could support the definition of a protocol for the integration of HIA with EIA and SEA. Although EIA and SEA approaches include the aim of protecting health, significant technical and methodological gaps are present when assessing health systematically, and their basic principles regarding assessment are unsatisfactory for promoting and addressing healthcare concepts stated by the WHO. HIA is still poorly integrated into the decision-making process, screening and monitoring phases are only occasionally implemented, and operational details are not well-defined. The collaborative approach of institutions involved in environment and health is a core element in a systematic advancement toward supporting effective decisions and effective protection of the environment and health. At the Italian national level, the definition of guidelines and tools for HIA, also in relation with EIA and SEA, is of great interest. PMID:25493391

Unintended benefits: the potential economic impact of addressing risk factors to prevent Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Pei-Jung; Yang, Zhou; Fillit, Howard M; Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2014-04-01

Certain chronic conditions appear to be modifiable risk factors of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. To understand the potential health and economic impacts of addressing those risk factors, we used data on a Medicare cohort to simulate four scenarios: a 10 percent reduction in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, respectively, and a 10 percent reduction in body mass index among beneficiaries who were overweight or obese. Our simulation demonstrated that reducing the prevalence of these conditions may yield "unintended benefits" by lowering the risk, delaying the onset, reducing the duration, and lowering the costs of dementia. More research is needed to clarify the exact relationship between various other chronic diseases and dementia. However, our findings highlight potential health gains and savings opportunities stemming from the better management of other conditions associated with dementia.

The current and potential impact of genetics and genomics on neuropsychopharmacology.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Paul J

2015-05-01

One justification for the major scientific and financial investments in genetic and genomic studies in medicine is their therapeutic potential, both for revealing novel targets for drugs which treat the disease process, as well as allowing for more effective and safe use of existing medications. This review considers the extent to which this promise has yet been realised within psychopharmacology, how things are likely to develop in the foreseeable future, and the key issues involved. It draws primarily on examples from schizophrenia and its treatments. One observation is that there is evidence for a range of genetic influences on different aspects of psychopharmacology in terms of discovery science, but far less evidence that meets the standards required before such discoveries impact upon clinical practice. One reason is that results reveal complex genetic influences that are hard to replicate and usually of very small effect. Similarly, the slow progress being made in revealing the genes that underlie the major psychiatric syndromes hampers attempts to apply the findings to identify novel drug targets. Nevertheless, there are some intriguing positive findings of various kinds, and clear potential for genetics and genomics to play an increasing and major role in psychiatric drug discovery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Financial Impact of Cancer Drug Wastage and Potential Cost Savings From Mitigation Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Caitlyn Y W; Cheung, Matthew C; Charbonneau, Lauren F; Prica, Anca; Ng, Pamela; Chan, Kelvin K W

2017-07-01

Cancer drug wastage occurs when a parenteral drug within a fixed vial is not administered fully to a patient. This study investigated the extent of drug wastage, the financial impact on the hospital budget, and the cost savings associated with current mitigation strategies. We conducted a cross-sectional study in three University of Toronto-affiliated hospitals of various sizes. We recorded the actual amount of drug wasted over a 2-week period while using current mitigation strategies. Single-dose vial cancer drugs with the highest wastage potentials were identified (14 drugs). To calculate the hypothetical drug wastage with no mitigation strategies, we determined how many vials of drugs would be needed to fill a single prescription. The total drug costs over the 2 weeks ranged from $50,257 to $716,983 in the three institutions. With existing mitigation strategies, the actual drug wastage over the 2 weeks ranged from $928 to $5,472, which was approximately 1% to 2% of the total drug costs. In the hypothetical model with no mitigation strategies implemented, the projected drug cost wastage would have been $11,232 to $149,131, which accounted for 16% to 18% of the total drug costs. As a result, the potential annual savings while using current mitigation strategies range from 15% to 17%. The financial impact of drug wastage is substantial. Mitigation strategies lead to substantial cost savings, with the opportunity to reinvest those savings. More research is needed to determine the appropriate methods to minimize risk to patients while using the cost-saving mitigation strategies.

Evaluating Vegetation Potential for Wildfire Impacted Watershed Using a Bayesian Network Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Jaramillo, L. V.; Stone, M. C.; Morrison, R. R.

2017-12-01

Decision-making for natural resource management is complex especially for fire impacted watersheds in the Southwestern US because of the vital importance of water resources, exorbitant cost of fire management and restoration, and the risks of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). While riparian and terrestrial vegetation are extremely important to ecosystem health and provide ecosystem services, loss of vegetation due to wildfire, post-fire flooding, and debris flows can lead to further degradation of the watershed and increased vulnerability to erosion and debris flow. Land managers are charged with taking measures to mitigate degradation of the watershed effectively and efficiently with limited time, money, and data. For our study, a Bayesian network (BN) approach is implemented to understand vegetation potential for Kashe-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument in the fire-impacted Peralta Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, USA. We implement both two-dimensional hydrodynamic and Bayesian network modeling to incorporate spatial variability in the system. Our coupled modeling framework presents vegetation recruitment and succession potential for three representative plant types (native riparian, native terrestrial, and non-native) under several hydrologic scenarios and management actions. In our BN model, we use variables that address timing, hydrologic, and groundwater conditions as well as recruitment and succession constraints for the plant types based on expert knowledge and literature. Our approach allows us to utilize small and incomplete data, incorporate expert knowledge, and explicitly account for uncertainty in the system. Our findings can be used to help land managers and local decision-makers determine their plan of action to increase watershed health and resilience.

Flooding and subsidence in the Thames Gateway: impact on insurance loss potential

Science.gov (United States)

Royse, Katherine; Horn, Diane; Eldridge, Jillian; Barker, Karen

2010-05-01

In the UK, household buildings insurance generally covers loss and damage to the insured property from a range of natural and human perils, including windstorm, flood, subsidence, theft, accidental fire and winter freeze. Consequently, insurers require a reasoned view on the likely scale of losses that they may face to assist in strategic planning, reinsurance structuring, regulatory returns and general risk management. The UK summer 2007 flood events not only provided a clear indication of the scale of potential losses that the industry could face from an individual event, with £3 billion in claims, but also identified a need for insurers and reinsurers to better understand how events may correlate in time and space, and how to most effectively use the computational models of extreme events that are commonly applied to reflect these correlations. In addition to the potential for temporal clustering of events such as windstorms and floods, there is a possibility that seemingly uncorrelated natural perils, such as floods and subsidence, may impact an insurer's portfolio. Where aggregations of large numbers of new properties are planned, such as in the Thames Gateway, consideration of the potential future risk of aggregate losses due to the combination of perils such as subsidence and flood is increasingly important within the insurance company's strategic risk management process. Whilst perils such as subsidence and flooding are generally considered independent within risk modelling, the potential for one event to influence the magnitude and likelihood of the other should be taken into account when determining risk level. In addition, the impact of correlated, but distinctive, loss causing events on particular property types may be significant, particularly if a specific property is designed to protect against one peril but is potentially susceptible to another. We suggest that flood events can lead to increased subsidence risk due to the weight of additional water

Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China's power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong, Rong-Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming

2010-01-01

In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that China would cut down carbon intensity 40-45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because CET is not fully implemented in China up to now, how to design it and its potential impact are unknown to us. This paper studies the potential impact of introduction of CET on China's power sector and discusses the impact of different allocation options of allowances. Agent-based modeling is one appealing new methodology that has the potential to overcome some shortcomings of traditional methods. We establish an agent-based model, CETICEM (CET Introduced China Electricity Market), of introduction of CET to China. In CETICEM, six types of agents and two markets are modeled. We find that: (1) CET internalizes environment cost; increases the average electricity price by 12%; and transfers carbon price volatility to the electricity market, increasing electricity price volatility by 4%. (2) CET influences the relative cost of different power generation technologies through the carbon price, significantly increasing the proportion of environmentally friendly technologies; expensive solar power generation in particular develops significantly, with final proportion increasing by 14%. (3) Emission-based allocation brings about both higher electricity and carbon prices than by output-based allocation which encourages producers to be environmentally friendly. Therefore, output-based allocation would be more conducive to reducing emissions in the Chinese power sector. (author)

Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

2007-07-01

The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slovic, P.; Layman, M.; Kraus, N.N.; Chalmers, J.; Gesel, G.; Flynn, J.

1989-07-01

This paper describes a program of research designed to assess the potential impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, upon tourism, retirement and job-related migration, and business development in Las Vegas and the state. Adverse economic impacts may be expected to result from two related social processes. One has to do with perceptions of risk and socially amplified reactions to ''unfortunate events'' associated with the repository (major and minor accidents, discoveries of radiation releases, evidence of mismanagement, attempts to sabotage or disrupt the facility, etc.). The second process that may trigger significant adverse impacts is that of stigmatization. The conceptual underpinnings of risk perception, social amplification, and stigmatization are discussed in this paper and empirical data are presented to demonstrate how nuclear images associated with Las Vegas and the State of Nevada might trigger adverse effects on tourism, migration, and business development

Potential impacts of ENDF/B-V on critical experiment analysis based on ZEBRA-8 criticals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choong, T S

1982-06-01

The ZEBRA-8 series of null-zone measurements featured a different neutron spectrum for each assembly. The experiments were designed for the purpose of basic data testing. The series cover a range of spectra both harder and softer than that for the LMFBR. The potential impacts of the newly released ENDF/BV cross section library on LMFBR critical exeriment analysis are discussed based on analysis of ZEBRA-8 series.

Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

2013-01-01

is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality...... periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether...... the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action...

GOLDSIM application in modeling the potential radioactive impact of LILW at Saligny site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Constantin, Alina; Diaconu, Daniela

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a model for the impact of potential contamination produced by radionuclide leaking due to long-term physical, chemical and hydrogeological processes occurring in a LILW repository and in the natural environment. The analysis contains a deterministic and also a probabilistic approach for uncertainty assessment. The input function, i.e., the source term was evaluated by using AMBER code and the entire analysis was accomplished by using GOLDSIM, a powerful tool to support probabilistic simulation in management and decision-making in engineering and science. The results obtained were compared to previous simulations and uncertainty analyses (FEHM). (authors)

Using the “Footprint” Approach to Examine the Potentials and Impacts of Renewable Energy Sources in the European Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Hastik

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The expansion of renewable energies is regarded as a key way to mitigate global climate change and to ensure the provision of energy in the long term. However, conflicts between these goals and local nature conservation goals are likely to increase because of the additional space required for renewable energies. This is particularly true for mountainous areas with biodiversity-rich ecosystems. Little effort has been undertaken to systematically compare different renewable energy sources and to examine their environmental impacts using an interdisciplinary approach. This study adapted the concept of the “ecological footprint” to examine the impact on ecosystem services of land use changes involved in exploiting renewable energy sources. This innovative approach made it possible to assess and communicate the potentials of those energy sources in light of both space consumption and sustainability. The European Alps are an ideal test area because of their high energy potentials and biodiversity-rich ecosystems and the high demand for multiple ecosystem services. Our results demonstrate that energy consumption in the Alps could not be covered with the available renewable energy potentials, despite the utilization of large parts of the Alpine land area and the majority of larger rivers. Therefore, considerable effort must be invested in resolving conflicting priorities between expanding renewable energies and nature conservation, but also in realizing energy-saving measures. To this end, the approach presented here can support decision-making by revealing the energy potentials, space requirements, and environmental impacts of different renewable energy sources.

Potential environmental impacts of light-emitting diodes (LEDs): metallic resources, toxicity, and hazardous waste classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Seong-Rin; Kang, Daniel; Ogunseitan, Oladele A; Schoenung, Julie M

2011-01-01

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are advertised as environmentally friendly because they are energy efficient and mercury-free. This study aimed to determine if LEDs engender other forms of environmental and human health impacts, and to characterize variation across different LEDs based on color and intensity. The objectives are as follows: (i) to use standardized leachability tests to examine whether LEDs are to be categorized as hazardous waste under existing United States federal and California state regulations; and (ii) to use material life cycle impact and hazard assessment methods to evaluate resource depletion and toxicity potentials of LEDs based on their metallic constituents. According to federal standards, LEDs are not hazardous except for low-intensity red LEDs, which leached Pb at levels exceeding regulatory limits (186 mg/L; regulatory limit: 5). However, according to California regulations, excessive levels of copper (up to 3892 mg/kg; limit: 2500), Pb (up to 8103 mg/kg; limit: 1000), nickel (up to 4797 mg/kg; limit: 2000), or silver (up to 721 mg/kg; limit: 500) render all except low-intensity yellow LEDs hazardous. The environmental burden associated with resource depletion potentials derives primarily from gold and silver, whereas the burden from toxicity potentials is associated primarily with arsenic, copper, nickel, lead, iron, and silver. Establishing benchmark levels of these substances can help manufacturers implement design for environment through informed materials substitution, can motivate recyclers and waste management teams to recognize resource value and occupational hazards, and can inform policymakers who establish waste management policies for LEDs.

Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.

Science.gov (United States)

Bressler, Neil M; Bressler, Susan B; Congdon, Nathan G; Ferris, Frederick L; Friedman, David S; Klein, Ronald; Lindblad, Anne S; Milton, Roy C; Seddon, Johanna M

2003-11-01

To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States. The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS. An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years. If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

The potential economic and environmental impact of a Public Benefit Fund in Louisiana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, M.J.; Pulsipher, A.G.; Baumann, R.H.

2004-01-01

Public Benefit Fund programs are one approach to provide energy assistance to low-income households placed at risk in a competitive electric industry. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential economic and environmental impact of a proposed Public Benefit Fund for the state of Louisiana. The 'best available' model to estimate the relationship between the cost of Public Benefit Fund programs and the benefits delivered by its implementation would be based on an evaluation of existent energy conservation and weatherization programs in the state, but unfortunately, such an evaluation has not been previously performed and so the 'next best' analytic model was employed. The impact of a Public Benefit Fund on energy savings and environmental consequences is assessed through a simulation model and input-output analysis. The model developed is based on publicly available data and infer results under a reasonable assumption set. The model structure and system assumptions of the Public Benefit Fund program are described, realistic policy alternatives are examined--including cost-ceiling, variable funding, and target group strategies--and the limitations of the analysis are outlined

The potential economic and environmental impact of a Public Benefit Fund in Louisiana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, Mark J.; Pulsipher, Allan G.; Baumann, Robert H.

2004-01-01

Public Benefit Fund programs are one approach to provide energy assistance to low-income households placed at risk in a competitive electric industry. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential economic and environmental impact of a proposed Public Benefit Fund for the state of Louisiana. The 'best available' model to estimate the relationship between the cost of Public Benefit Fund programs and the benefits delivered by its implementation would be based on an evaluation of existent energy conservation and weatherization programs in the state, but unfortunately, such an evaluation has not been previously performed and so the 'next best' analytic model was employed. The impact of a Public Benefit Fund on energy savings and environmental consequences is assessed through a simulation model and input-output analysis. The model developed is based on publicly available data and infer results under a reasonable assumption set. The model structure and system assumptions of the Public Benefit Fund program are described, realistic policy alternatives are examined, including cost-ceiling, variable funding, and target group strategies, and the limitations of the analysis are outlined. (Author)

Identifying Toxic Impacts of Metals Potentially Released during Deep-Sea Mining—A Synthesis of the Challenges to Quantifying Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Hauton

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In January 2017, the International Seabed Authority released a discussion paper on the development of Environmental Regulations for deep-sea mining (DSM within the Area Beyond National Jurisdiction (the “Area”. With the release of this paper, the prospect for commercial mining in the Area within the next decade has become very real. Moreover, within nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, the exploitation of deep-sea mineral ore resources could take place on very much shorter time scales and, indeed, may have already started. However, potentially toxic metal mixtures may be released at sea during different stages of the mining process and in different physical phases (dissolved or particulate. As toxicants, metals can disrupt organism physiology and performance, and therefore may impact whole populations, leading to ecosystem scale effects. A challenge to the prediction of toxicity is that deep-sea ore deposits include complex mixtures of minerals, including potentially toxic metals such as copper, cadmium, zinc, and lead, as well as rare earth elements. Whereas the individual toxicity of some of these dissolved metals has been established in laboratory studies, the complex and variable mineral composition of seabed resources makes the a priori prediction of the toxic risk of DSM extremely challenging. Furthermore, although extensive data quantify the toxicity of metals in solution in shallow-water organisms, these may not be representative of the toxicity in deep-sea organisms, which may differ biochemically and physiologically and which will experience those toxicants under conditions of low temperature, high hydrostatic pressure, and potentially altered pH. In this synthesis, we present a summation of recent advances in our understanding of the potential toxic impacts of metal exposure to deep-sea meio- to megafauna at low temperature and high pressure, and consider the limitation of deriving lethal limits based on the paradigm of exposure to

Global warming potential of pavements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

2009-09-15

Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

Global warming potential of pavements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

2009-01-01

Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF GROUP CERTIFICATION FOR ORGANIC AGRICULTURE IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adina Roxana MUNTEANU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In a global market for organic food which in 2011 was estimated to 63 billion US Dollars (Sahota, 2013, smallholding are important as they could fuel further growth. One of the main constraints for organic certification of smallholdings is the cost of certification, which is quite high compared to the turnover. Group certification for organic agriculture is a type of certification which does not require yearly inspection of all farmers and it comes with a smaller price tag for each individual farmer. In several countries such as Canada, India and East African countries the group certification is possible while at the moment in the EU it is not. This article investigates the potential impact of group certification for Romania in the context of the EU still undergoing debate regarding the review of the EU policy on organic agriculture.

The Impact of a Potential Shale Gas Development in Germany and the United Kingdom on Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Weger, L.; Cremonese, L.; Bartels, M. P.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Several European countries with domestic shale gas reserves are considering extracting this natural gas resource to complement their energy transition agenda. Natural gas, which produces lower CO2 emissions upon combustion compared to coal or oil, has the potential to serve as a bridge in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. However, the generation of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and pollutants such as PM, NOx and VOCs, which in turn impact climate as well as local and regional air quality. In this study, we explore the impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, specifically in Germany and the United Kingdom, on emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants. In order to investigate the effect on emissions, we first estimate a range of wells drilled per year and production volume for the two countries under examination based on available geological information and on regional infrastructural and economic limitations. Subsequently we assign activity data and emissions factors to the well development, gas production and processing stages of shale gas generation to enable emissions quantification. We then define emissions scenarios to explore different storylines of potential shale gas development, including low emissions (high level of regulation), high emissions (low level of regulation) and middle emissions scenarios, which influence fleet make-up, emission factor and activity data choices for emissions quantification. The aim of this work is to highlight important variables and their ranges, to promote discussion and communication of potential impacts, and to construct possible visions for a future shale gas development in the two study countries. In a follow-up study, the impact of pollutant emissions from these scenarios on air quality will be explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model.

Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and asseessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A.

2010-01-01

Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation...... depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude...

Impact of Weather and Occupancy on Energy Flexibility Potential of a Low-energy Building

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zilio, Emanuele; Foteinaki, Kyriaki; Gianniou, Panagiota

The introduction of renewable energy sources in the energy market leads to instability of the energy system itself; therefore, new solutions to increase its flexibility will become more common in the coming years. In this context the implementation of energy flexibility in buildings is evaluated...... solar radiation and the outdoor temperature appeared to have the larger impact on the thermal flexibility of the building. Specifically, the energy flexibility potential of the examined apartment can ensure its thermal autonomy up to 200 h in a typical sunny winter day......., using heat storage in the building mass. This study focuses on the influence of weather conditions and internal gains on the energy flexibility potential of a nearly-zero-energy building in Denmark. A specific six hours heating program is used to reach the scope. The main findings showed that the direct...

Burgundy regional climate change and its potential impact on grapevines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Yiwen [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); G.C. Rieber Climate Institute at the Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Castel, Thierry [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); AgroSup, Department of Agriculture and Environment, Dijon (France); Richard, Yves; Cuccia, Cedric [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Bois, Benjamin [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); IUVV, University of Burgundy, Dijon (France)

2012-10-15

ARPEGE general circulation model simulations were dynamically downscaled by The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the study of climate change and its impact on grapevine growth in Burgundy region in France by the mid twenty-first century. Two time periods were selected: 1970-1979 and 2031-2040. The WRF model driven by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data was validated against in situ surface temperature observations. The daily maximum and minimum surface temperature (T{sub max} and T{sub min}) were simulated by the WRF model at 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution. The averaged daily T{sub max} for each month during 1970-1979 have good agreement with observations, the averaged daily T{sub min} have a warm bias about 1-2 K. The daily T{sub max} and T{sub min} for each month (domain averaged) during 2031-2040 show a general increase. The largest increment ({proportional_to}3 K) was found in summer. The smallest increments (<1 K) were found in spring and fall. The spatial distribution of temperature increment shows a strong meridional gradient, high in south in summer, reversing in winter. The resulting potential warming rate in summer is equivalent to 4.7 K/century under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. The dynamically downscaled T{sub max} and T{sub min} were used to simulate the grape (Pinot noir grape variety) flowering and veraison dates. For 2031-2040, the projected dates are 8 and 12 days earlier than those during 1970-1979, respectively. The simulated hot days increase more than 50% in the two principal grapevine regions. They show strong impact on Pinot noir development. (orig.)

Collection of Condensate Water: Global Potential and Water Quality Impacts

KAUST Repository

Loveless, Kolin Joseph

2012-12-28

Water is a valuable resource throughout the world, especially in hot, dry climates and regions experiencing significant population growth. Supplies of fresh water are complicated by the economic and political conditions in many of these regions. Technologies that can supply fresh water at a reduced cost are therefore becoming increasingly important and the impact of such technologies can be substantial. This paper considers the collection of condensate water from large air conditioning units as a possible method to alleviate water scarcity issues. Using the results of a climate model that tested data collected from 2000 to 2010, we have identified areas in the world with the greatest collection potential. We gave special consideration to areas with known water scarcities, including the coastal regions of the Arabian Peninsula, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. We found that the quality of the collected water is an important criterion in determining the potential uses for this water. Condensate water samples were collected from a few locations in Saudi Arabia and detailed characterizations were conducted to determine the quality of this water. We found that the quality of condensate water collected from various locations and types of air conditioners was very high with conductivities reaching as low as 18 μS/cm and turbidities of 0. 041 NTU. The quality of the collected condensate was close to that of distilled water and, with low-cost polishing treatments, such as ion exchange resins and electrochemical processes, the condensate quality could easily reach that of potable water. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Potential impacts of the energy industry on invertebrates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeMont, E. [Saint Francis Xavier Univ., Antigonish, NS (Canada). Dept. of Biology

2006-07-01

This presentation provided a literature review of seismic activity impacts on invertebrates. A summary of recent research on the effects of seismic noise on female snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) was evaluated by comparison with a caging study conducted off western Cape Breton Island in 2003-2004 which examined mortality and external damages to crabs, as well as the conditions of appendices and organs. Details of a study examining the mobility of lobsters over pipelines were presented, as well as recent research conducted by the St. Francis Xavier Biomechanics Laboratory. It was noted that studies on the effects of marine noise on invertebrate species are limited and incomplete. However, the impacts of marine noise on invertebrates is a critical issue for major fisheries based on invertebrates. The snow crab study showed swelling of hepatopancreatic walls to crabs in areas of seismic activity. Abundance and distribution of the crabs fell from 30 per cent before seismic activity to 23 per cent after seismic exploration began. Evidence of immediate impacts on antennules, gill and statocysts which lasted less than 5 months was observed. The impacts of the abnormalities on the life cycle of the crabs is unknown. Exposure to seismic energy did not kill snow crab embryos. However, rates of development were slower in seismic than control embryos. Results suggested that further research on normal crab health and environmental conditions is needed. Current research at the St. Francis Xavier Biomechanics Laboratory included a fluid mechanics study paddle-assisted walking for lobsters; jet-assisted walking in lobsters; the effects of temperature on the activity of lobsters; and, the impact of mechanical vibrations on lobsters. Details of sponsors for the various studies were also provided. refs., tabs., figs.

Impact of the Z potential technique on reducing the sperm DNA fragmentation index, fertilization rate and embryo development.

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, Carlos; Núñez, Víctor; Wong, Yat; Vivar, Carlos; Benites, Elder; Rodriguez, Urso; Vergara, Carlos; Ponce, Jorge

2017-12-01

In assisted reproduction procedures, we need to develop and enhance new protocols to optimize sperm selection. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the Z potential technique to select sperm with intact DNA in non-normospermic patients and evaluate the impact of this selection on embryonic development. We analyzed a total of 174 human seminal samples with at least one altered parameter. We measured basal, post density gradients, and post density gradients + Z potential DNA fragmentation index. To evaluate the impact of this technique on embryo development, 54 cases were selected. The embryo development parameters evaluated were fertilization rate, cleavage rate, top quality embryos at the third day and blastocysts rate. We found significant differences in the study groups when we compared the sperm fragmentation index by adding the Z potential technique to density gradient selection vs. density gradients alone. Furthermore, there was no significant difference in the embryo development parameters between the low sperm fragmentation index group vs. the moderate and high sperm fragmentation index groups, when selecting sperms with this new technique. The Z potential technique is a very useful tool for sperm selection; it significantly reduces the DNA fragmentation index and improves the parameters of embryo development. This technique could be considered routine for its simplicity and low cost.

Using Life Cycle Assessment to identify potential environmental impacts of an agrifood sector: Application to the PDO Beaujolais and Burgundia wine sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Penavayre Sophie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The environmental impacts of the production system of emblematic French product under official quality marks was investigated using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA methodology. The study looks at the PDO Beaujolais and Burgundy sector from a broad perspective, i.e. encompassing all steps linked with the products themselves but also complementary activities that belong to this wine sector. To build the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI, a methodology deriving from both product and organizational LCA was developed and applied. The LCI was built using a bottom-up approach. Inventories were first built for a sample of 17 representative companies. Then, these inventories were scaled-up to complete the global LCI at the agrifood sector level. Potential environmental impacts were assessed for 8 indicators. The LCA results show potential environmental impacts for each life cycle step: grape production, wine making and aging, packaging, distribution and activity of stakeholders belonging to the “close environment”. It provided two main outcomes: (i a methodology for the construction of an LCI adapted to the perimeter of an agrifood sector and composed by high quality data; and (ii the identification of potential environmental impacts of the studied agrifood sector, providing assistance for the definition of their strategic orientations for the future.

Regulatory, design and methodological impacts in determining tidal-in-stream power resource potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwater, Joel F.; Lawrence, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

Tidal-in-Stream energy has been heralded by many as a significant potential source for clean power, a scheme where kinetic energy is extracted from tidal currents. A number of estimates have suggested that tidal power may become a sizeable fraction of overall electricity generation, however these estimates have been largely based on a resource assessment methodology that dramatically oversimplifies the physical phenomenon at play. This paper develops a model that considers the effect of energy extraction on the bulk flow, showing that tidal energy inventories that assess solely kinetic energy flux may represent both an order-of-magnitude overestimation of the resource and a significant oversimplification of regulatory impacts. The interplay between the characteristics of a flow and the regulatory and economic issues will likely limit tidal power generation to levels significantly below the physical maximums. Permitted flow reduction, turbine design and staging of development all have significant and predictable impacts on the extractible resource. Energy planners must therefore understand these relationships in order to appropriately assess the magnitude of generation that can be realistically be produced from tidal energy. - Research highlights: → Inventorying kinetic energy is not appropriate for assessing the tidal energy potential and may overestimate the resource by orders of magnitude. → The physical maximum for tidal power extraction is 38% of the total fluid power of a channel and causes a flow reduction of 42%. → Any amount of tidal power generation will reduce the flow rate in a channel. → Limiting the permitted reduction in flow significantly reduces the available resource. → Turbine efficiency is important as extraneous resistance depletes the resource without providing power generation.

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

Science.gov (United States)

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate

Examining the Potential Impact of Full Tuition Fees on Mature Part-Time Students in English Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Angela

2014-01-01

This paper examines current part-time mature learners' views on the potential impact upon future students as full fees are introduced from 2012. It investigates the problems which part-time mature learners may face with the advent of student loans and subsequent debt, given that they are usually combining complex lives with their studies, with…

The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

OpenAIRE

Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

2005-01-01

Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). Results At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to...

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruhl, Laura; Vengosh, Avner; Dwyer, Gary S; Hsu-Kim, Heileen; Deonarine, Amrika; Bergin, Mike; Kravchenko, Julia

2009-08-15

An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. First the surface release of coal ash with high levels of toxic elements (As = 75 mg/kg; Hg = 150 microg/kg) and radioactivity (226Ra + 228Ra = 8 pCi/g) to the environment has the potential to generate resuspended ambient fine particles (risk to local communities. Second, leaching of contaminants from the coal ash caused contamination of surface waters in areas of restricted water exchange, but only trace levels were found in the downstream Emory and Clinch Rivers due to river dilution. Third, the accumulation of Hg- and As-rich coal ash in river sediments has the potential to have an impact on the ecological system in the downstream rivers by fish poisoning and methylmercury formation in anaerobic river sediments.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Rose, Adam [University of Southern California, Los Angeles; Bumsoo, Lee [University of Illinois

2013-01-01

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenarios of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.

Integrated Application of Remote Sensing, GIS and Hydrological Modeling to Estimate the Potential Impact Area of Earthquake-Induced Dammed Lakes

OpenAIRE

Bo Cao; Shengmei Yang; Song Ye

2017-01-01

Dammed lakes are an important secondary hazard caused by earthquakes. They can induce further damage to nearby humans. Current hydrology calculation research on dammed lakes usually lacks spatial expressive ability and cannot accurately conduct impact assessment without the support of remote sensing, which obtains important characteristic information of dammed lakes. The current study aims to address the issues of the potential impact area estimate of earthquake-induced dammed lakes by combin...

Shared Solar: Current Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-05-27

This presentation provides a high-level overview of the current U.S. shared solar landscape, the impact that a given shared solar program's structure has on requiring federal securities oversight, as well as an estimate of market potential for U.S. shared solar deployment.

Mapping the Green Infrastructure potential - and it's water-energy impacts on New York City roof Tops

Science.gov (United States)

Engström, Rebecka; Destouni, Georgia; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Green Roofs have the potential to provide multiple services in cities. Besides acting as carbon sinks, providing noise reduction and decreasing air pollution - without requiring any additional "land-use" in a city (only roof-use), green roofs have a quantifiable potential to reduce direct and indirect energy and water use. They enhance the insulating capacity of a conventional residential roof and thereby decrease both cooling demands in summer and heating demands in winter. The former is further mitigated by the cooling effect of evapotranspiration from the roofs In New York City green roofs are additionally a valuable component of reducing "combined sewer overflows", as these roofs can retain storm water. This can improve water quality in the city's rivers as well as decrease the total volume of water treated in the city's wastewater treatment plants, thereby indirectly reduce energy demands. The impacts of green roofs on NYC's water-energy nexus has been initially studied (Engström et. al, forthcoming). The present study expands that work to more comprehensively investigate the potential of this type of nature-based solution in a dense city. By employing Geographical Information Systems analysis, the roof top area of New York City is analysed and roof space suitable for green roofs of varying types (ranging from extensive to intensive) are mapped and quantified. The total green roof area is then connected with estimates of potential water-energy benefits (and costs) of each type of green roof. The results indicate where green roofs can be beneficially installed throughout the city, and quantifies the related impacts on both water and energy use. These outputs can provide policy makers with valuable support when facing investment decisions in green infrastructure, in a city where there is great interest for these types of nature-based solutions.

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

Science.gov (United States)

Abell, Paul A.; Rivkin, Andy S.

2014-01-01

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

Potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fellous Marc

2004-07-01

Full Text Available The Biomolecular Engineering Commission considers that the knowledge acquired in the last three years has provided significant information in reply to the points raised in its review dated 16 February 2001. The Commission has studied the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicidetolerantGMoilseed rape crops, making a distinction between direct and indirect impacts. Direct impacts stem from the intrinsic properties of herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops whereas indirect impacts result from practices associated with the farming of these crops. The Commission considers that, in the absence of the use of the herbicide in question in and outside of farmed land, there is no direct environmental risk (development of invasive crops per se associated with the presence of a herbicide-tolerance gene in oilseed rape (or related species. Nevertheless, since the interest of these tolerant crops lies in the use of the herbicide in question, indirect effects, to varying extents, have been identified and must be taken into account: the use of the herbicide in question, applied to agricultural fields containing the herbicide-tolerant crop could lead to an increase in oilseed rape volunteer populations in crop rotations; the selective pressure exerted by non-specific herbicides (to which the crops have been rendered tolerant may be very high in cases of continuous and uncontrolled use of these herbicides, and may result in the persistence of rare events such as the reproduction of fertile interspecies hybrids; the change to the range of herbicides used should be conveyed by more effective weed control and, like any change in farming practices, induce indirect effects on the agri-ecosystem, particularly in terms of changes to weeds and the associated animal life. Accordingly, the Biomolecular Engineering Commission recommends a global approach in terms of the large-scale farming of herbicide-tolerant crops that: accounts for the

Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Potential Impact of Displacing Sedentary Time in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

FALCONER, CATHERINE L.; PAGE, ANGIE S.; ANDREWS, ROB C.; COOPER, ASHLEY R.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose Sedentary time, in particular, prolonged unbroken sedentary time, is detrimental to health and displaces time spent in either light or moderate intensity physical activity. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify the potential impact of reallocating time from sedentary behaviors to more active behaviors on measures of body composition and metabolic health in people with type 2 diabetes. Methods Participants were 519 adults with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes who had been recruited to the Early Activity in Diabetes (Early ACTID) randomized controlled trial. Waist-worn accelerometers were used to obtain objective measurement of sedentary time, light physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) at baseline alongside clinical measurements and fasting blood samples to determine cholesterol, triglycerides, HOMA-IR, and glucose. Isotemporal substitution modeling was performed to determine the potential impact of reallocating 30 min of sedentary time accumulated in a single bout (long bout) with 30 min of interrupted sedentary time, LPA, or MVPA. Results Sedentary time accounted for 65% of the waking day, of which 45% was accumulated in prolonged (≥30 min) bouts. Reallocation of 30 min of long-bout sedentary time with 30 min of short-bout sedentary time was associated with lower body mass index (BMI) (adjusted β, −0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], −1.00, −0.21) and waist circumference (WC) (adjusted β, −1.16; 95% CI, −2.08, −0.25). Stronger effects were seen for LPA and MVPA. Reallocation of 30 min of long-bout sedentary time with LPA was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (adjusted β, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.00–0.03 mmol·L−1). Conclusions Encouraging adults with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes to break up prolonged periods of sedentary time may be an effective strategy for improving body composition and metabolic health. PMID:26378943

Assessing Potential Impact of Bt Eggplants on Non-Target Arthropods in the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Navasero, Mario V.; Candano, Randolph N.; Hautea, Desiree M.; Hautea, Randy A.; Shotkoski, Frank A.; Shelton, Anthony M.

2016-01-01

Studies on potential adverse effects of genetically engineered crops are part of an environmental risk assessment that is required prior to the commercial release of these crops. Of particular concern are non-target organisms (NTOs) that provide important ecosystem services. Here, we report on studies conducted in the Philippines over three cropping seasons with Bt eggplants expressing Cry1Ac for control of the eggplant fruit and shoot borer (EFSB), Leucinodes orbonalis, to examine potential effects on field abundance, community composition, structure and biodiversity of NTO’s, particularly non-target arthropod (NTA) communities. We document that many arthropod taxa are associated with Bt eggplants and their non-Bt comparators and that the number of taxa and their densities varied within season and across trials. However, we found few significant differences in seasonal mean densities of arthropod taxa between Bt and non-Bt eggplants. As expected, a lower abundance of lepidopteran pests was detected in Bt eggplants. Higher abundance of a few non-target herbivores was detected in non-Bt eggplants as were a few non-target beneficials that might control them. Principal Response Curve (PRC) analyses showed no statistically significant impact of Bt eggplants on overall arthropod communities through time in any season. Furthermore, we found no significant adverse impacts of Bt eggplants on species abundance, diversity and community dynamics, particularly for beneficial NTAs. These results support our previous studies documenting that Bt eggplants can effectively and selectively control the main pest of eggplant in Asia, the EFSB. The present study adds that it can do so without adverse effects on NTAs. Thus, Bt eggplants can be a foundational component for controlling EFSB in an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) program and dramatically reduce dependence on conventional insecticides. PMID:27798662

Geo - hydrological investigations and impact of water harvesting structures on groundwater potential in Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Suryanarayana, K V; Krishnaiah, S; Khokalay, Murthy Rao V

2010-10-01

In this paper, the data pertaining to the rainfall, its departure from normal, moving mean rainfall, depth of water levels in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, groundwater availability, groundwater utilization and impact of storage of water in large water bodies are analyzed graphically. The results indicate that the groundwater is over exploited in many places in Anantapur District (India). The groundwater levels found fluctuating, when compared the observations in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Hence, it is concluded that the construction of water harvesting structures at suitable locations will have a definite impact on the groundwater potential in Anantapur District.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential economic impacts of achieving good environmental status in Black Sea fisheries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian C. Goulding

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD mandates that European Union (EU member states achieve Good Environmental Status (GEnS based on an ecosystem-based approach to management. For commercial fisheries, the primary target under the MSFD is one of maximum sustainable yield. Of Black Sea riparian nations, only Romania and Bulgaria are EU member states. Focusing at the supranational level, we review institutions and instruments relevant to management of the Black Sea. The economic values of current fish catches are assessed, and the results of a recent analytical assessment of fish stocks are used to estimate potential future values based on maximum sustainable yields. In the Black Sea region, despite long-standing attempts to improve fisheries management, there remains a lack of effective regional cooperation. Evidence from the scenario analysis suggests that achieving GEnS would not have an undue negative impact on overall fishery sector incomes, and could, with appropriate investments in processing and marketing, deliver increased economic benefits for Black Sea countries. The ongoing policy debate between and within Black Sea coastal states needs to be extended to include recognition of the potential economic and social benefits of effective fisheries management. More work is required to assess returns on investment in interim management measures to deliver GEnS.

Potential impact of Dare County landfills on Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Winger, P.V.; Lasier, P.J.; Augspurger, T.

2005-01-01

Runoff of leachate from East Lake and Dare County Construction and Demolition Debris landfills has the potential to impact wildlife resources at Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, Dare and Hyde Counties, North Carolina. Sediment quality of samples collected in August 2000 at 14 locations down-gradient from the landfills was assessed by measuring metal and organic contaminants in the sediments, chronic toxicity of solid-phase sediment (28-d static-renewal exposures; survival and growth as test endpoints) and acute toxicity of sediment porewater (96-h static exposures) to Hyalella azteca (Crustacea: Amphipoda). In addition, contaminant bioaccumulation from 4 sediments was determined using 28-d exposures of Lumbriculus variegatus (freshwater oligochaete). Although survival was not impaired, length of H. azteca was significantly reduced in sediments from 5 locations. Pore water from 4 locations was acutely toxic to H. azteca. Metals and a few polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were bioaccumulated by L. variegatus from the sediments. Several metals and PAHs exceeded sediment quality guidelines, and metals in porewater from several sites exceeded water quality criteria for the protection of aquatic wildlife. Runoff of leachate from the landfills has reduced sediment quality and has the potential to adversely affect wildlife resources at Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge.

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

Impact of Diagenesis on Biosignature Preservation Potential in Playa Lake Evaporites of the Verde Formation, Arizona: Implications for Mars Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Shkolyar, S.; Farmer, J. D.

2016-05-01

We studied evaporite subfacies in the Verde Fmn., AZ. We identified diagenetic pathways and assessed how diagenesis affected biosignature preservation potential (BPP) in each. Results revealed eight pathways, each with diverse impacts on BPP.

Laboratory Assessment of Potential Impacts to Dungeness Crabs from Disposal of Dredged Material from the Columbia River

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vavrinec, John; Pearson, Walter H.; Kohn, Nancy P.; Skalski, J. R.; Lee, Cheegwan; Hall, Kathleen D.; Romano, Brett A.; Miller, Martin C.; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.

2007-05-07

Dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about dredging-related impacts on Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) in the estuary, mouth of the estuary, and nearshore ocean areas adjacent to the Columbia River. The Portland District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers engaged the Marine Sciences Laboratory (MSL) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to review the state of knowledge and conduct studies concerning impacts on Dungeness crabs resulting from disposal during the Columbia River Channel Improvement Project and annual maintenance dredging in the mouth of the Columbia River. The present study concerns potential effects on Dungeness crabs from dredged material disposal specific to the mouth of the Columbia River.

College grade point average as a personnel selection device: ethnic group differences and potential adverse impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, P L; Bobko, P

2000-06-01

College grade point average (GPA) is often used in a variety of ways in personnel selection. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research literature in human resource management that informs researchers or practitioners about the magnitude of ethnic group differences and any potential adverse impact implications when using cumulative GPA for selection. Data from a medium-sized university in the Southeast (N = 7,498) indicate that the standardized average Black-White difference for cumulative GPA in the senior year is d = 0.78. The authors also conducted analyses at 3 GPA screens (3.00, 3.25, and 3.50) to demonstrate that employers (or educators) might face adverse impact at all 3 levels if GPA continues to be implemented as part of a selection system. Implications and future research are discussed.

Globalization and the marginalization of unskilled labor: potential impacts on health in developed nations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostry, Aleck Samuel

2009-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to determine the impacts of economic globalization on labor markets and outline potential pathways for these changes to affect health status in industrialized nations. A systematic review of the economic globalization and health literature revealed that, under the impact of globalization and market deregulation, the past 25 years have witnessed de-industrialization, shifts to nontraditional, insecure work arrangements, and relatively high levels of unemployment in most developed nations. This has occurred in the context of hypermobility of capital, relative immobility of labor, and declining market position for unskilled labor. Such structural changes in the labor markets in conjunction with shifts in educational opportunities and requirements have resulted in the increasing marginalization of unskilled workers from the labor market. Aside from direct effects on health due to the threat and experience of unemployment, and given that income inequality within nations is a main driver of national health status, lowered relative wages for the unskilled will probably affect national health status through increased income inequality.

The potential impact of intelligent power wheelchair use on social participation: perspectives of users, caregivers and clinicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Rushton, Paula W; Kairy, Dahlia; Archambault, Philippe; Pituch, Evelina; Torkia, Caryne; El Fathi, Anas; Stone, Paula; Routhier, François; Forget, Robert; Pineau, Joelle; Gourdeau, Richard; Demers, Louise

2015-05-01

To explore power wheelchair users', caregivers' and clinicians' perspectives regarding the potential impact of intelligent power wheelchair use on social participation. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with power wheelchair users (n = 12), caregivers (n = 4) and clinicians (n = 12). An illustrative video was used to facilitate discussion. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Three main themes were identified based on the experiences of the power wheelchair users, caregivers and clinicians: (1) increased social participation opportunities, (2) changing how social participation is experienced and (3) decreased risk of accidents during social participation. Findings from this study suggest that an intelligent power wheelchair would enhance social participation in a variety of important ways, thereby providing support for continued design and development of this assistive technology. An intelligent power wheelchair has the potential to: Increase social participation opportunities by overcoming challenges associated with navigating through crowds and small spaces. Change how social participation is experienced through "normalizing" social interactions and decreasing the effort required to drive a power wheelchair. Decrease the risk of accidents during social participation by reducing the need for dangerous compensatory strategies and minimizing the impact of the physical environment.

The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

2005-08-11

Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

Science.gov (United States)

Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho

2017-06-01

Low impact development (LID)/green infrastructure (GI) practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.). Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shafique Muhammad

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Low impact development (LID/green infrastructure (GI practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.. Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

The potential impact of geological environment on health status of residents of the Slovak Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rapant, S; Cvečková, V; Dietzová, Z; Fajčíková, K; Hiller, E; Finkelman, R B; Škultétyová, S

2014-06-01

In order to assess the potential impact of the geological environment on the health of the population of the Slovak Republic, the geological environment was divided into eight major units: Paleozoic, Crystalline, Carbonatic Mesozoic and basal Paleogene, Carbonatic-silicate Mesozoic and Paleogene, Paleogene Flysch, Neovolcanics, Neogene and Quaternary sediments. Based on these geological units, the databases of environmental indicators (chemical elements/parameters in groundwater and soils) and health indicators (concerning health status and demographic development of the population) were compiled. The geological environment of the Neogene volcanics (andesites and basalts) has been clearly documented as having the least favourable impact on the health of Slovak population, while Paleogene Flysch geological environment (sandstones, shales, claystones) has the most favourable impact. The most significant differences between these two geological environments were observed, especially for the following health indicators: SMRI6364 (cerebral infarction and strokes) more than 70 %, SMRK (digestive system) 55 %, REI (circulatory system) and REE (endocrine and metabolic system) almost 40 % and REC (malignant neoplasms) more than 30 %. These results can likely be associated with deficit contents of Ca and Mg in groundwater from the Neogene volcanics that are only about half the level of Ca and Mg in groundwater of the Paleogene sediments.

Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Martin; Miquelle, Dale G; Goodrich, John M; Reeve, Richard; Cleaveland, Sarah; Matthews, Louise; Joly, Damien O

2014-01-01

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.

Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica in Russia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Gilbert

Full Text Available Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica, but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ, and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.

Estimating the Potential Impact of Canine Distemper Virus on the Amur Tiger Population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Martin; Miquelle, Dale G.; Goodrich, John M.; Reeve, Richard; Cleaveland, Sarah; Matthews, Louise; Joly, Damien O.

2014-01-01

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy. PMID:25354196

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Water Temperatures Across the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ehsani, N.; Knouft, J.; Ficklin, D. L.

2017-12-01

Analyses of long-term observation data have revealed significant changes in several components of climate and the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States during the twentieth and early twenty-first century. Mean surface air temperatures have significantly increased in most areas of the country. In addition, water temperatures are increasing in many watersheds across the United States. While there are numerous studies assessing the impact of climate change on air temperatures at regional and global scales, fewer studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on stream water temperatures. Projecting increases in water temperature are particularly important to the conservation of freshwater ecosystems. To achieve better insights into attributes regulating population and community dynamics of aquatic biota at large spatial and temporal scales, we need to establish relationships between environmental heterogeneity and critical biological processes of stream ecosystems at these scales. Increases in stream temperatures caused by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may result in a significant loss of fish habitat in the United States. Utilization of physically based hydrological-water temperature models is computationally demanding and can be onerous to many researchers who specialize in other disciplines. Using statistical techniques to analyze observational data from 1760 USGS stream temperature gages, our goal is to develop a simple yet accurate method to quantify the impacts of climate warming on stream water temperatures in a way that is practical for aquatic biologists, water and environmental management purposes, and conservation practitioners and policy-makers. Using an ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs), we estimate the potential impacts of climate change on stream temperatures within the contiguous United States based on recent trends. Stream temperatures are projected to increase across the US, but the magnitude of the

Potential impact of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT on prostate cancer definitive radiation therapy planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Calais, Jérémie; Kishan, Amar U; Cao, Minsong; Fendler, Wolfgang P; Eiber, Matthias; Herrmann, Ken; Ceci, Francesco; Reiter, Robert E; Matthew, Rettig B; Hegde, John V; Shaverdian, Narek; King, Christopher R; Steinberg, Michael L; Czernin, Johannes; Nickols, Nicholas G

2018-04-13

Background: Standard-of-care imaging for initial staging of prostate cancer (PCa) underestimates disease burden. Prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/ computed tomography (PET/CT) detects PCa metastasis with superior accuracy with potential impact definitive radiation therapy (RT) planning for non-metastatic PCa. Objectives: i) To determine how often definitive PCa RT planning based on standard target volumes cover 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT defined disease, and ii) To assess the potential impact of 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT on definitive PCa RT planning. Patients and Methods: This is a post-hoc analysis of an intention to treat population of 73 patients with localized PCa without prior local therapy who underwent 68 Ga-PSMA PET/CT for initial staging as part of an Investigational New Drug trial. 11/73 were intermediate-risk (15%), 33/73 were high-risk (45%), 22/73 were very high risk (30%), and 7/73 were N1 (9.5%). Clinical target volumes (CTVs) that included the prostate, seminal vesicles, and pelvic lymph nodes (LNs) using Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) consensus guidelines were contoured on the CT portion of the PET/CT by a radiation oncologist blinded to the PET findings. 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT images were analyzed by a nuclear medicine physician. PSMA-positive lesions not covered by planning volumes based on the CTVs were considered to have a major potential impact on treatment planning. Results: All patients had PSMA-positive primary prostate lesion(s). 25/73 (34%) and 7/73 (9.5%) had PSMA-positive pelvic nodal and distant metastases, respectively. The sites of nodal metastases in decreasing order of frequency were external iliac (20.5%), common iliac (13.5%), internal iliac (12.5%) obturator (12.5%), perirectal (4%), abdominal (4%), upper-diaphragm (4%), and presacral (1.5%). The median size of the nodal lesions was 6 mm (range 4-24 mm). RT planning based on the CTVs covered 69/73 (94.5%) of primary disease and 20/25 (80%) of

Phytoremediation potential and ecological and phenological changes of native pioneer plants from weathered oil spill-impacted sites at tropical wetlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Palma-Cruz, Felipe de J; Pérez-Vargas, Josefina; Rivera Casado, Noemí Araceli; Gómez Guzmán, Octavio; Calva-Calva, Graciano

2016-08-01

Pioneer native plant species from weathered oil spill-affected sites were selected to study their potential for phytoremediation on the basis of their ecological and phenological changes during the phytoremediation process. Experiments were conducted in field and in greenhouse. In field, native plants from aged oil spill-impacted sites with up 400 g of weathered petroleum hydrocarbons per kilogram soil were selected. In the impacted sites, the principal dominant plant species with potential for hydrocarbons removal were Cyperus laxus, Cyperus esculentus, and Ludwigia peploides. In greenhouse, the phenology of the selected plant species was drastically affected by the hydrocarbons level above 325 g total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) per kilogram soil after 2 years of phytoremediation of soils from the aged oil spill-impacted sites. From the phytoremediation treatments, a mix-culture of C. laxus, C. esculentus, and L. peploides in soil containing 325 g TPH/kg soil, from which 20.3 % were polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and 34.2 % were asphaltenes (ASF), was able to remove up 93 % of the TPH, while in unvegetated soil the TPH removal was 12.6 %. Furthermore, evaluation of the biodiversity and life forms of plant species in the impacted sites showed that phytoremediation with C. esculentus, alone or in a mix-culture with C. laxus and L. peploides, reduces the TPH to such extent that the native plant community was progressively reestablished by replacing the cultivated species resulting in the ecological recovery of the affected soil. These results demonstrate that native Cyperus species from weathered oil spill-affected sites, specifically C. esculentus and C. laxus, alone or in a mix-culture, have particular potential for phytoremediation of soils from tropical wetlands contaminated with weathered oil hydrocarbons.

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES OF WASTE PACKAGE QUANTITIES IMPACTED BY POTENTIAL IGNEOUS DISRUPTION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M.G. Wallace

2005-01-01

A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analyses include disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift were intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km 2 , the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in

Scientific Opinion on the assessment of potential impacts of genetically modified plants on non-target organisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arpaia, Salvatore; Bartsch, Detlef; Delos, Marc

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) asked the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms to establish a self-tasking Working Group with the aim of (1) producing a scientific review of the current guidance of the GMO Panel for Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA), focusing on the potential impacts...... of GM plants on Non-Target Organisms (NTOs), (2) proposing criteria for NTOs selection, and (3) providing advise on standardized testing methodology. This initiative was undertaken in response to a need and request from a wide range of stakeholders, including the European Commission and Member States....... In first instance, the self-tasking Working Group on Non-Target Organisms (EFSA NTO WG) mainly considered impacts of GM plants on invertebrate species, but also took account of ecosystem functions that could be altered. The EFSA NTO WG considered the necessity for clear and objective protection goals...

Potential impact of task-shifting on costs of antiretroviral therapy and physician supply in Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stergachis Andy

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Lower-income countries face severe health worker shortages. Recent evidence suggests that this problem can be mitigated by task-shifting--delegation of aspects of health care to less specialized health workers. We estimated the potential impact of task-shifting on costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART and physician supply in Uganda. The study was performed at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI clinic, a large urban HIV clinic. Methods We built an aggregate cost-minimization model from societal and Ministry of Health (MOH perspectives. We compared physician-intensive follow-up (PF, the standard of care, with two methods of task-shifting: nurse-intensive follow-up (NF and pharmacy-worker intensive follow-up (PWF. We estimated personnel and patient time use using a time-motion survey. We obtained unit costs from IDI and the literature. We estimated physician personnel impact by calculating full time equivalent (FTE physicians saved. We made national projections for Uganda. Results Annual mean costs of follow-up per patient were $59.88 (societal and $31.68 (medical for PF, $44.58 (societal and $24.58 (medical for NF and $18.66 (societal and $10.5 (medical for PWF. Annual national societal ART follow-up expenditure was $5.92 million using PF, $4.41 million using NF and $1.85 million using PWF, potentially saving $1.51 million annually by using NF and $4.07 million annually by using PWF instead of PF. Annual national MOH expenditure was $3.14 million for PF, $2.43 million for NF and $1.04 for PWF, potentially saving $0.70 million by using NF and $2.10 million by using PWF instead of PF. Projected national physician personnel needs were 108 FTE doctors to implement PF and 18 FTE doctors to implement NF or PWF. Task-shifting from PF to NF or PWF would potentially save 90 FTE physicians, 4.1% of the national physician workforce or 0.3 FTE physicians per 100,000 population. Conclusion Task-shifting results in substantial cost and

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

Heavy Drinkers and the Potential Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing-No Single or Simple Effect?

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, J; Black, H; Rush, R; O'May, F; Chick, J

2017-11-01

To explore the potential impact of a minimum unit price (MUP: 50 pence per UK unit) on the alcohol consumption of ill Scottish heavy drinkers. Participants were 639 patients attending alcohol treatment services or admitted to hospital with an alcohol-related condition. From their reported expenditure on alcohol in their index week, and assuming this remained unchanged, we estimated the impact of a MUP (50 ppu) on future consumption. (Around 15% purchased from both the more expensive on-sale outlets (hotels, pubs, bars) and from off-sales (shops and supermarkets). For them we estimated the change in consumption that might follow MUP if (i) they continued this proportion of 'on-sales' purchasing or (ii) their reported expenditure was moved entirely to off-sale purchasing (to maintain consumption levels)). Around 69% of drinkers purchased exclusively off-sale alcohol at sales purchases could support, for some, an increase in consumption. While a proportion of our harmed, heavy drinkers might be able to mitigate the impact of MUP by changing purchasing habits, the majority are predicted to reduce purchasing. This analysis, focusing specifically on harmed drinkers, adds a unique dimension to the evidence base informing current pricing policy. From drink purchasing data of heavy drinkers, we estimated the impact of legislating £0.50 minimum unit price. Over two thirds of drinkers, representing all multiple deprivation quintiles, were predicted to decrease alcohol purchasing; remainder, hypothetically, could maintain consumption. Our data address an important gap within the evidence base informing policy. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.; Tomasko, D.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of two naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.; Tomasko, D.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of two naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.

Impacts of marine renewable energy scheme operation on the eutrophication potential of the Severn Estuary, UK

Science.gov (United States)

Kadiri, Margaret; Kay, David; Ahmadian, Reza; Bockelmann-Evans, Bettina; Falconer, Roger; Bray, Michaela

2013-04-01

In recent years there has being growing global interest in the generation of electricity from renewable resources. Amongst these, marine energy resource is now being considered to form a significant part of the energy mix, with plans for the implementation of several marine renewable energy schemes such as barrages and tidal stream turbines around the UK in the near future. Although marine energy presents a great potential for future electricity generation, there are major concerns over its potential impacts, particularly barrages, on the hydro-environment. Previous studies have shown that a barrage could significantly alter the hydrodynamic regime and tidal flow characteristics of an estuary, with changes to sediment transport (Kadiri et al., 2012). However, changes to nutrients have been overlooked to date. Hence, considerable uncertainty remains as to how a barrage would affect the trophic status of an estuary. This is particularly important because eutrophication can lead to algal toxin production and increased mortality of aquatic invertebrates and fish populations. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of the two different modes of operation of a barrage (i.e. ebb generation and flood-ebb generation) on the eutrophication potential of the Severn Estuary using a simplified model developed by the UK's Comprehensive Studies Task Team (CSTT). The model uses a set of equations and site-specific input data to predict equilibrium dissolved nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, light-controlled phytoplankton growth rate and primary production which are compared against CSTT set standards for assessing the eutrophic status of estuaries and coastal waters. The estuary volume and tidal flushing time under the two operating modes were estimated using a hydrodynamic model and field surveys were conducted to obtain dissolved nitrate and phosphate concentrations which served as input data. The predicted equilibrium dissolved nitrate and phosphate

A population genetic analysis of the potential for a crude oil spill to induce heritable mutations and impact natural populations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cronin, M.A. [LGL Alaska Research Associates Inc., Anchorage, AK (United States); Bickham, J.W. [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences; LGL Ecological Genetics Inc., Bryan, TX (United States)

1998-07-01

The primary environmental impact following an oil spill typically is acute toxicity to fish and wildlife. However, multigenerational effects through toxicant-induced heritable mutations might also occur. Some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) components of crude oil are potentially mutagenic, although specific components and doses that induce mutations are poorly known. We applied population genetics concepts to assess the extent of mortality and the persistence of deleterious heritable mutations resulting from exposure to potential mutagens, such as crude oil. If lethal mutations are induced, the population will experience some mortality, but the mutations are quickly removed or reduced to low frequency by natural selection. This occurs within one or a few generations when mutations are dominant or partially recessive. Totally recessive alleles persist in low frequency for many generations, but result in relatively little impact on the population, depending on the number of mutated loci. We also applied population genetics concepts to assess the potential for heritable mutations induced by the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, to affect pink salmon populations. We stress that breeding units (e.g., streams with distinct spawning populations of salmon) must be considered individually to assess heritable genetic effects. For several streams impacted by the oil spill, there is inconsistency between observed egg mortality and that expected if lethal heritable mutations had been induced by exposure to crude oil. Observed mortality was either higher or lower than expected depending on the spawning population, year, and cohort considered. Any potential subtle effect of lethal mutations induced by the Exxon Valdez oil spill is overridden by natural environmental variation among spawning areas. We discuss the need to focus on population-level effects in toxicological assessments because fish and wildlife management focuses on populations, not

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Bisphenol A (BPA) in China: a review of sources, environmental levels, and potential human health impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y Q; Wong, C K C; Zheng, J S; Bouwman, H; Barra, R; Wahlström, B; Neretin, L; Wong, M H

2012-07-01

Bisphenol A (BPA), identified as an endocrine disruptor, is an industrially important chemical that is used as a raw material in the manufacture of many products such as engineering plastics (e.g., epoxy resins/polycarbonate plastics), food cans (i.e., lacquer coatings), and dental composites/sealants. The demand and production capacity of BPA in China have grown rapidly. This trend will lead to much more BPA contamination in the environmental media and in the general population in China. This paper reviews the current literature concerning the pollution status of BPA in China (the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) and its potential impact on human health. Due to potential human health risks from long-term exposure to BPA, body burden of the contaminant should be monitored. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

2009-05-01

HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable.

The Potential Impact of Biofield Treatment on Human Brain Tumor Cells: A Time-Lapse Video Microscopy

OpenAIRE

Trivedi, Mahendra

2015-01-01

Study background: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common subtype of primary brain tumor in adults. The aim was to evaluate the impact of biofield treatment potential on human GBM and non-GBM brain cells using two time-lapse video microscopy technique. Methods: The human brain tumor, GBM cultured cells were divided into two groups viz. GBM control and GBM treatment. Similarly, human normal brain cultured cells (non-GBM) were taken and divided into two groups viz. non- GBM control and non-GB...

Potential Air Quality Impacts of Global Bioenergy Crop Cultivation

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, W. C.; Rosenstiel, T. N.; Barsanti, K. C.

2012-12-01

The use of bioenergy crops as a replacement for traditional coal-powered electricity generation will require large-scale land-use change, and the resulting changes in emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) may have negative impacts on local to regional air quality. BVOCs contribute to the formation of both ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with magnitudes of specific compound emissions governed largely by plant speciation and land coverage. For this reason, large-scale land-use change has the potential to markedly alter regional O3 and PM2.5 levels, especially if there are large differences between the emission profiles of the replacement bioenergy crops (many of which are high BVOC emitters) and the previous crops or land cover. In this work, replacement areas suitable for the cultivation of the bioenergy crops switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and giant reed (Arundo donax) were selected based on existing global inventories of under-utilized cropland and local climatological conditions. These two crops are among the most popular current candidates for bioenergy production, and provide contrasting examples of energy densities and emissions profiles. While giant reed has been selected in an ongoing large-scale coal-to-biocharcoal conversion in the Northwestern United States due to its high crop yields and energy density, it is also among the highest biogenic emitters of isoprene. On the other hand, switchgrass produces less biomass per acre, but also emits essentially no isoprene and low total BVOCs. The effects of large-scale conversion to these crops on O3 and PM2.5 were simulated using version 1.1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with version 2.1 of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). By comparing crop replacement scenarios involving A. donax and P. virgatum, the sensitivities of O3 and PM2.5 levels to worldwide increases in bioenergy production were examined, providing an initial

Growth potential in gas plant ethane production and the impact on propane import trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lippe, D.L.

1996-01-01

In varying degrees in most ethylene plants, ethane and propane are used interchangeably as feedstocks. During the next five years, several new ethylene plants will be built in the Gulf Coast area. Most of these plants will be based on LPG feedstocks and will have some flexibility to operate with ethane and propane feedstocks. The completion of new ethylene plants will increase feedstock demand for ethane by 65--90 Mbpd by 1998 and by an additional 50--80 Mbpd by 2000. Thus, the availability of ethane will have a significant impact on Gulf Coast waterborne propane import requirements. Sustained growth in the gas processing industry's ethane recovery capability will effectively minimize waterborne propane import requirements for the next five to ten years. Petral Worldwide's approach to feedstock supply analysis highlights investment opportunities in domestic supply sources. Projects of these types will also limit a growth dependence on NGL feedstock supplies from politically unstable supply sources in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the potential for growth in the gas processing industry's ethane recovery capability and the impact on Gulf Coast feedstock markets

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laura Ruhl; Avner Vengosh; Gary S. Dwyer; Heileen Hsu-Kim; Amrika Deonarine; Mike Bergin; Julia Kravchenko [Duke University, Durham, NC (United States). Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences

2009-08-15

An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. First, the surface release of coal ash with high levels of toxic elements (As = 75 mg/kg; Hg = 150 {mu}g/kg) and radioactivity ({sup 226}Ra + {sup 228}Ra = 8 pCi/g) to the environment has the potential to generate resuspended ambient fine particles (<10 {mu}m) containing these toxics into the atmosphere that may pose a health risk to local communities. Second, leaching of contaminants from the coal ash caused contamination of surface waters in areas of restricted water exchange, but only trace levels were found in the downstream Emory and Clinch Rivers due to river dilution. Third, the accumulation of Hg- and As-rich coal ash in river sediments has the potential to have an impact on the ecological system in the downstream rivers by fish poisoning and methylmercury formation in anaerobic river sediments. 61 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

Bioenergy development pathways for Europe. Potentials, costs and environmental impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Wit, M.P.

2011-09-26

Fossil resources dominate the global energy system today which cannot be sustained indefinitely. Bioenergy use can meet a large share of future energy supply sustainably. For example, it can substitute fossil fuels including petroleum, and when sustainably produced, bioenergy avoids greenhouse gas emissions. However, with the recent increase of modern bioenergy use several drawbacks have become apparent that may lead to negative ecological impacts. Europe plays an important role in the further sustainable development of bioenergy due to its ambitious renewable energy policies and its state-of-the-art agricultural sector. The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate development pathways for bioenergy in Europe by assessing preconditions for its development, an economic outlook for such development and an assessment of its environmental implications. The technical European biomass potential has a substantial potential to contribute to Europe's energy consumption. Energy crop production on European croplands and grasslands supplemented with agricultural and forestry residues offers an ultimate technical potential of 27.7 EJ y-1. These findings were based on the assumption that agricultural land needs for future domestic food production decrease as productivities per hectare increase. Central and Eastern Europe pose the more attractive region with relatively high potentials and low costs. In European agriculture, it is possible to combine large-scale biomass production with food production sustained at current levels, without direct or indirect land-use changes and while accomplishing significant net cumulative greenhouse gas emission reductions when both bioenergy and agricultural production are considered. To accomplish this situation two preconditions need to be met: a gradual intensification of food production and implementation of structural improvements to agricultural management. Based on the current economic performance and future prospects for

Potential impacts of biofuel development on food security in Botswana: A contribution to energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kgathi, Donald L.; Mfundisi, K.B.; Mmopelwa, G.; Mosepele, K.

2012-01-01

Biofuel development continues to be a critical development strategy in Africa because it promises to be an important part of the emerging bio-economy. However, there is a growing concern that the pattern of biofuel development is not always consistent with the principles of sustainable development. This paper assesses the potential of the impacts of biofuel development on food security in Botswana. Drawing on informal and semi-structured interviews, the paper concludes that there is potential for the development of biofuels in Botswana without adverse effects on food security due mainly to availability of idle land which accounted for 72% of agricultural land in the eastern part of the country in 2008. It is suggested that farmers could be incentivized to produce energy crops and more food from such land. Although it is hypothesized that the implementation of biofuel development programmes in other countries had an impact on local commodity prices during the period 2005–2008 in Botswana, it is argued that local biofuel production may not necessarily lead to a substantial increase in commodity food prices because land availability is not a major issue. The paper makes policy recommendations for sustainable biofuel development in Botswana. - Highlights: ► Biofuel development in Botswana can be pursued without harming food security. ► There is plenty idle land which could be used for biofuel and food production. ► Biofuel production will not lead to significant increases in food prices. ► There is need to define land for biofuels to avoid future scarcity of land for food production.

Potential factors impacting season-long expression of Cry1Ac in 13 commercial varieties of Bollgard® cotton

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John J. Adamczyk, Jr.

2001-11-01

Full Text Available Thirteen commercial varieties of transgenic Cry1Ac Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt cotton were examined across two sites in 2000 for potential factors that impact endotoxin expression. In all cases, two varieties (NuCOTN 33B and DP 458B/RR, Delta and Pineland Co., Scott, MS expressed more Cry1Ac than the other 11 varieties in various plant structures. These two varieties share the same parental background (DP 5415. Furthermore, when the next generation of plants were tested in the greenhouse, the same varietal patterns were exhibited. These data strongly suggest that factors such as parental background had a stronger impact on the expression of Cry1Ac than the environment.

The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Crampton Peter

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners. Results At its peak (week 4 the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88% would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%, and then premature death (4%. Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64% of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%, hospitalisation (4%, and then premature death (1%. Conclusion Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

Impacts of tree rows on grassland birds and potential nest predators: a removal experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellison, Kevin S; Ribic, Christine A; Sample, David W; Fawcett, Megan J; Dadisman, John D

2013-01-01

Globally, grasslands and the wildlife that inhabit them are widely imperiled. Encroachment by shrubs and trees has widely impacted grasslands in the past 150 years. In North America, most grassland birds avoid nesting near woody vegetation. Because woody vegetation fragments grasslands and potential nest predator diversity and abundance is often greater along wooded edge and grassland transitions, we measured the impacts of removing rows of trees and shrubs that intersected grasslands on potential nest predators and the three most abundant grassland bird species (Henslow's sparrow [Ammodramus henslowii], Eastern meadowlark [Sturnella magna], and bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus]) at sites in Wisconsin, U.S.A. We monitored 3 control and 3 treatment sites, for 1 yr prior to and 3 yr after tree row removal at the treatment sites. Grassland bird densities increased (2-4 times for bobolink and Henslow's sparrow) and nesting densities increased (all 3 species) in the removal areas compared to control areas. After removals, Henslow's sparrows nested within ≤50 m of the treatment area, where they did not occur when tree rows were present. Most dramatically, activity by woodland-associated predators nearly ceased (nine-fold decrease for raccoon [Procyon lotor]) at the removals and grassland predators increased (up to 27 times activity for thirteen-lined ground squirrel [Ictidomys tridecemlineatus]). Nest success did not increase, likely reflecting the increase in grassland predators. However, more nests were attempted by all 3 species (175 versus 116) and the number of successful nests for bobolinks and Henslow's sparrows increased. Because of gains in habitat, increased use by birds, greater production of young, and the effective removal of woodland-associated predators, tree row removal, where appropriate based on the predator community, can be a beneficial management action for conserving grassland birds and improving fragmented and degraded grassland ecosystems.

Impacts of tree rows on grassland birds and potential nest predators: a removal experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin S Ellison

Full Text Available Globally, grasslands and the wildlife that inhabit them are widely imperiled. Encroachment by shrubs and trees has widely impacted grasslands in the past 150 years. In North America, most grassland birds avoid nesting near woody vegetation. Because woody vegetation fragments grasslands and potential nest predator diversity and abundance is often greater along wooded edge and grassland transitions, we measured the impacts of removing rows of trees and shrubs that intersected grasslands on potential nest predators and the three most abundant grassland bird species (Henslow's sparrow [Ammodramus henslowii], Eastern meadowlark [Sturnella magna], and bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus] at sites in Wisconsin, U.S.A. We monitored 3 control and 3 treatment sites, for 1 yr prior to and 3 yr after tree row removal at the treatment sites. Grassland bird densities increased (2-4 times for bobolink and Henslow's sparrow and nesting densities increased (all 3 species in the removal areas compared to control areas. After removals, Henslow's sparrows nested within ≤50 m of the treatment area, where they did not occur when tree rows were present. Most dramatically, activity by woodland-associated predators nearly ceased (nine-fold decrease for raccoon [Procyon lotor] at the removals and grassland predators increased (up to 27 times activity for thirteen-lined ground squirrel [Ictidomys tridecemlineatus]. Nest success did not increase, likely reflecting the increase in grassland predators. However, more nests were attempted by all 3 species (175 versus 116 and the number of successful nests for bobolinks and Henslow's sparrows increased. Because of gains in habitat, increased use by birds, greater production of young, and the effective removal of woodland-associated predators, tree row removal, where appropriate based on the predator community, can be a beneficial management action for conserving grassland birds and improving fragmented and degraded grassland

Drug pricing reform in China: analysis of piloted approaches and potential impact of the reform

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yixi; Hu, Shanlian; Dong, Peng; Kornfeld, Åsa; Jaros, Patrycja; Yan, Jing; Ma, Fangfang; Toumi, Mondher

2016-01-01

Objectives In 2009, the Chinese government launched a national healthcare reform programme aiming to control healthcare expenditure and increase the quality of care. As part of this programme, a new drug pricing reform was initiated on 1 June 2015. The objective of this study was to describe the changing landscape of drug pricing policy in China and analyse the potential impact of the reform. Methods The authors conducted thorough research on the drug pricing reform using three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, and Weipu), Chinese health authority websites, relevant press releases, and pharmaceutical blogs and discussion forums. This research was complemented with qualitative research based on targeted interviews with key Chinese opinion leaders representing the authorities’ and prescribers’ perspectives. Results With the current reform, the government has attempted to replace its direct control over the prices of reimbursable drugs with indirect, incentive-driven influence. Although the exact implementation of the reform remains unclear at the moment, the changes introduced so far and the pilot project designs indicate that China is considering adaptation of some form of internal and external reference pricing policies, commonly used in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Several challenges related to the potential new mechanism were identified: 1) the risk of hospital underfunding, if hospital funding reform is not prioritised; 2) the risk of promoting the use of cheap, low-quality drugs, if a reliable quality control system is not in place and discrepancy between the available drugs is present; 3) the risk of increasing disparity in access to care between poor and rich regions, in case of country-wide price convergence; and 4) the risk of industry underinvestment, resulting in reduced competition, issues with quality and sustainability of supply, and potentially negative social impact. Conclusions Foreign pricing policies

Financial impact of introducing the Swiss-DRG reimbursement system on potentially avoidable readmissions at a university hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Wasserfallen, Jean-Blaise; Zufferey, Jade

2015-01-01

Thirty-day readmissions can be classified as potentially avoidable (PARs) or not avoidable (NARs) by following a specific algorithm (SQLape®). We wanted to assess the financial impact of the Swiss-DRG system, which regroups some readmissions occurring within 18 days after discharge within the initial hospital stay, on PARs at our hospital. First, PARs were identified from all hospitalisations recorded in 2011 at our university hospital. Second, 2012 Swiss-DRG readmission rules were applied, regrouped readmissions (RR) were identified, and their financial impact computed. Third, RRs were classified as potentially avoidable (PARRs), not avoidable (NARRs), and others causes (OCRRs). Characteristics of PARR patients and stays were retrieved, and the financial impact of PARRS was computed. A total of 36,777 hospitalisations were recorded in 2011, of which 3,140 were considered as readmissions (8.5%): 1,470 PARs (46.8%) and 1,733 NARs (53.2%). The 2012 Swiss-DRG rules would have resulted in 910 RRs (2.5% of hospitalisations, 29% of readmissions): 395 PARRs (43% of RR), 181 NARRs (20%), and 334 OCRRs (37%). Loss in reimbursement would have amounted to CHF 3.157 million (0.6% of total reimbursement). As many as 95% of the 395 PARR patients lived at home. In total, 28% of PARRs occurred within 3 days after discharge, and 58% lasted less than 5 days; 79% of the patients were discharged home again. Loss in reimbursement would amount to CHF 1.771 million. PARs represent a sizeable number of 30-day readmissions, as do PARRs of 18-day RRs in the 2012 Swiss DRG system. They should be the focus of attention, as the PARRs represent an avoidable loss in reimbursement.

Potential social, institutional, and environmental impacts of selected energy-conservation measures in two Washington communities. [Seattle and Yakima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edelson, E.; Olsen, M.

1980-03-01

The likely environmental, social, and institutional impacts of selected energy-conservation measures in two communities in Washington state are reported. The five conservation measures investigated in this study were: (1) retrofitting existing buildings; (2) district heating and Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICES); (3) small automobiles and vehicle redesign; (4) land-use and housing modifications; and (5) electric-utility rate reform. Twenty potential impact areas were selected for analysis. These areas were divided into five categories of environmental impacts, economic impacts, community impacts, personal impacts, and overall quality of life in the community. The research was conducted in Seattle and Yakima, Washington. In each location, about two dozen public officials and business, labor, and community leaders were interviewed. Their diverse views are summarized. The Seattle respondents saw energy conservation as a highly desirable policy with a number of temporary, transitional problems arising as energy-conservation measures were implemented. Yakima respondents, in contrast, did not expect to encounter many serious energy problems in the foreseeable future and consequently viewed energy conservation as a relatively minor community concern. Moreover, they anticipated that many conservation measures, if implemented by the government, would encounter either apathy or resistance in their community. Two broad generalizations can bedrawn from these interviews: (1) energy conservation will basically be beneficial for the natural environment and our society; and (2) if energy conservation does become a dominant thrust in our society, it could stimulate and reinforce a much broader process of fundamental social change. (LCL)

Wildlife friendly roads: the impacts of roads on wildlife in urban areas and potential remedies

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Seth P D; Brown, Justin L.; Sikich, Jeff A.; Schoonmaker, Catherine M.; Boydston, Erin E.

2014-01-01

Roads are one of the most important factors affecting the ability of wildlife to live and move within an urban area. Roads physically replace wildlife habitat and often reduce habitat quality nearby, fragment the remaining habitat, and cause increased mortality through vehicle collisions. Much ecological research on roads has focused on whether animals are successfully crossing roads, or if the road is a barrier to wildlife movement, gene flow, or functional connectivity. Roads can alter survival and reproduction for wildlife, even among species such as birds that cross roads easily. Here we examine the suite of potential impacts of roads on wildlife, but we focus particularly on urban settings. We report on studies, both in the literature and from our own experience, that have addressed wildlife and roads in urban landscapes. Although road ecology is a growing field of study, relatively little of this research, and relatively few mitigation projects, have been done in urban landscapes. We also draw from the available science on road impacts in rural areas when urban case studies have not fully addressed key topics.

Potential impact of environmental requirements on petroleum products derived from synthetic crude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

Fuel quality proposals regarding gasoline and diesel fuels were discussed. Strict regulations on air emissions will mean changes in transportation fuel specifications which will ultimately impact on the refining industry. As fuel quality requirements become more stringent, refiners will need to look more closely at increasing the use of Canadian synthetic crude as a refinery feed. The fuel quality specifications with the potentially highest impact for the continued use of synthetic crude are those relating to sulphur, aromatics (including benzene), and olefins in gasoline and sulphur, aromatics and cetane in diesel fuel. Synthetic crude has an advantage in terms of gasoline sulphur content. The FCC feed is at a low enough sulphur level to result in gasoline components that would allow refiners to meet final gasoline sulphur levels of less than 100 ppm. In either case, synthetic middle distillate must be upgraded. Options that face the synthetic crude and refining industries are: (1) synthetic crude producers may install the process equipment needed to upgrade the middle distillate portion of their synthetic crude stream, (2) refiners may install equipment to upgrade just the diesel fuel portion of the middle distillate pool and jet fuel, and (3) a joint effort may be made by the two industries. The National Centre for Upgrading Technology (NCUT) and the Western Research Centre of Natural Resources Canada will continue to assist with research into improved catalysts for hydrotreating of middle distillates, and new lower cost processes for upgrading middle distillates from synthetic and conventional crude oils to meet future product requirements. 5 refs., 1 tab

Potential Economic Impacts of the Vietnam-Korea Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanh Hoan Phan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.

Scientific impact: opportunity and necessity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Marlene Z; Alexander, Gregory L; Wyman, Jean F; Fahrenwald, Nancy L; Porock, Davina; Wurzbach, Mary E; Rawl, Susan M; Conn, Vicki S

2010-08-01

Recent National Institutes of Health changes have focused attention on the potential scientific impact of research projects. Research with the excellent potential to change subsequent science or health care practice may have high scientific impact. Only rigorous studies that address highly significant problems can generate change. Studies with high impact may stimulate new research approaches by changing understanding of a phenomenon, informing theory development, or creating new research methods that allow a field of science to move forward. Research with high impact can transition health care to more effective and efficient approaches. Studies with high impact may propel new policy developments. Research with high scientific impact typically has both immediate and sustained influence on the field of study. The article includes ideas to articulate potential scientific impact in grant applications as well as possible dissemination strategies to enlarge the impact of completed projects.

Mapping Potential Environmental Impacts from Tourists Using Data from Social Media: A Case Study in the Westfjords of Iceland.

Science.gov (United States)

Hale, Brack W

2018-05-07

With tourism increasing in remote regions, it is important to be able to estimate potential environmental impacts from the tourists in order to plan and manage natural areas. This study combines measures of ecological sensitivity with data from publicly available geotagged photographs posted on the social media site Flickr to assess the vulnerability of the locations frequented by foreign tourists in the Westfjords region of Iceland between 2014 and 2016. The results suggest that tourists cluster primarily around six hotspots that represented some of the major known tourist destinations of the region. Although tourists generally frequented areas with lower ecological sensitivity and rarely went far beyond the main roads, one of the hotspots was in an area of higher ecological sensitivity. Further, tourists also appeared to have higher intensity stays when they entered areas of higher ecological sensitivity. Overall, these findings highlight the usefulness of combining data from social media in assessing potential environmental impacts of tourism. However, natural resource managers should be aware of limitations in the use of such data.

Reviews and Syntheses: Ocean acidification and its potential impacts on marine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Mostofa, Khan M. G.; Liu, Cong-Qiang; Zhai, WeiDong; Minella, Marco; Vione, Davide; Gao, Kunshan; Minakata, Daisuke; Arakaki, Takemitsu; Yoshioka, Takahito; Hayakawa, Kazuhide; Konohira, Eiichi; Tanoue, Eiichiro; Akhand, Anirban; Chanda, Abhra; Wang, Baoli; Sakugawa, Hiroshi

2016-03-01

Ocean acidification, a complex phenomenon that lowers seawater pH, is the net outcome of several contributions. They include the dissolution of increasing atmospheric CO2 that adds up with dissolved inorganic carbon (dissolved CO2, H2CO3, HCO3-, and CO32-) generated upon mineralization of primary producers (PP) and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The aquatic processes leading to inorganic carbon are substantially affected by increased DOM and nutrients via terrestrial runoff, acidic rainfall, increased PP and algal blooms, nitrification, denitrification, sulfate reduction, global warming (GW), and by atmospheric CO2 itself through enhanced photosynthesis. They are consecutively associated with enhanced ocean acidification, hypoxia in acidified deeper seawater, pathogens, algal toxins, oxidative stress by reactive oxygen species, and thermal stress caused by longer stratification periods as an effect of GW. We discuss the mechanistic insights into the aforementioned processes and pH changes, with particular focus on processes taking place with different timescales (including the diurnal one) in surface and subsurface seawater. This review also discusses these collective influences to assess their potential detrimental effects to marine organisms, and of ecosystem processes and services. Our review of the effects operating in synergy with ocean acidification will provide a broad insight into the potential impact of acidification itself on biological processes. The foreseen danger to marine organisms by acidification is in fact expected to be amplified by several concurrent and interacting phenomena.

Potential radiological impacts of recovery of uranium from wet-process phosphoric acid. Final report to the Environmental Protection Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, W. Jr.; Haywood, F.F.; Danek, J.L.; Moore, R.E.; Wagner, E.B.; Rupp, E.M.

1979-01-01

A study was made to determine the radiological impacts associated with recovery of uranium from wet-process (WP) phosphoric acid in central Florida. Removal of U and other radionuclides from phosphoric acid prevents their distribution on farm lands and urban gardens and grasses via fertilizers; this results in a positive impact (decreased dose commitment) on the associated populations. This study considers the potential negative impacts of current and project recovery processes in a site-specific manner using detailed state-of-the-art methodologies. Positive impacts are treated in a generic sense using U.S. average values for important variables such as average and maximum fertilizer application rates and quantities of radionuclides in fertilizer. Three model plants to recover U from WP phosphoric acid were selected and source terms for release of radionuclides are developed for all three and for two treatment methods for airborne particulates. Costs for radwaste treatment were developed. Field measurements were conducted at the only commercial uranium recovery plant in operation. Radiological doses to the population surrounding release points during plant operation were estimated

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, R A; Presley, S M; Cox, S B; Hayhoe, K; Allen, L J S; Long, K R

2012-01-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems. (letter)

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

2003-01-01

The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Permafrost in the Himalayas: specific characteristics, evolution vs. climate change and impacts on potential natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Fort, Monique

2015-04-01

Mountain environments are very sensitive to climate change, yet assessing the potential impacts of these changes is not easy because of the complexity and diversity of mountain systems. The Himalayan permafrost belt presents three main specificities: (1) it develops in a geodynamically active mountain, which means that the controlling factors are not only temperature but also seismo-tectonic activity; (2) due to the steepness of the southern flank of the Greater Himalaya and potential large scale rock failures, permafrost evidence manifests itself best in the inner valleys and on the northern, arid side of the Himalayas (elevations >4000m); (3) the east-west strike of the mountain range creates large spatial discontinuity in the "cold" belt, mostly related to precipitation nature and availability. Only limited studies have been carried to date, and there is no permanent "field laboratory", nor continuous records but a few local studies. Based on preliminary observations in the Nepal Himalayas (mostly in Mustang and Dolpo districts), and Indian Ladakh, we present the main features indicating the existence of permafrost (either continuous or discontinuous). Rock-glaciers are quite well represented, though their presence may be interpreted as a combined result from both ground ice and large rock collapse. The precise altitudinal zonation of permafrost belt (specifying potential permafrost, probable permafrost, observed permafrost belts) still requires careful investigations in selected areas. Several questions arise when considering the evolution of permafrost in a context of climate change, with its impacts on the development of potential natural hazards that may affect the mountain population. Firstly, permafrost degradation (ground ice melting) is a cause of mountain slope destabilization. When the steep catchments are developed in frost/water sensitive bedrock (shales and marls) and extend to high elevations (as observed in Mustang or Dolpo), it would supply more

Investigating the Potential Impacts of Energy Production in the Marcellus Shale Region Using the Shale Network Database and CUAHSI-Supported Data Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Brazil, L.

2017-12-01

The Shale Network's extensive database of water quality observations enables educational experiences about the potential impacts of resource extraction with real data. Through open source tools that are developed and maintained by the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI), researchers, educators, and citizens can access and analyze the very same data that the Shale Network team has used in peer-reviewed publications about the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on water. The development of the Shale Network database has been made possible through collection efforts led by an academic team and involving numerous individuals from government agencies, citizen science organizations, and private industry. Thus far, CUAHSI-supported data tools have been used to engage high school students, university undergraduate and graduate students, as well as citizens so that all can discover how energy production impacts the Marcellus Shale region, which includes Pennsylvania and other nearby states. This presentation will describe these data tools, how the Shale Network has used them in developing educational material, and the resources available to learn more.

Nitrogen amendment of green waste impacts microbial community, enzyme secretion and potential for lignocellulose decomposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Chaowei; Harrold, Duff R.; Claypool, Joshua T.; Simmons, Blake A.; Singer, Steven W.; Simmons, Christopher W.; VanderGheynst, Jean S.

2017-01-01

Microorganisms involved in biomass deconstruction are an important resource for organic waste recycling and enzymes for lignocellulose bioconversion. The goals of this paper were to examine the impact of nitrogen amendment on microbial community restructuring, secretion of xylanases and endoglucanases, and potential for biomass deconstruction. Communities were cultivated aerobically at 55 °C on green waste (GW) amended with varying levels of NH₄Cl. Bacterial and fungal communities were determined using 16S rRNA and ITS region gene sequencing and PICRUSt (Phylogenetic Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved States) was applied to predict relative abundance of genes involved in lignocellulose hydrolysis. Nitrogen amendment significantly increased secretion of xylanases and endoglucanases, and microbial activity; enzyme activities and cumulative respiration were greatest when nitrogen level in GW was between 4.13–4.56 wt% (g/g), but decreased with higher nitrogen levels. The microbial community shifted to one with increasing potential to decompose complex polymers as nitrogen increased with peak potential occurring between 3.79–4.45 wt% (g/g) nitrogen amendment. Finally, the results will aid in informing the management of nitrogen level to foster microbial communities capable of secreting enzymes that hydrolyze recalcitrant polymers in lignocellulose and yield rapid decomposition of green waste.

Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Robert T. Brooks

2009-01-01

Global, national, and regional assessments of the potential effects of Global Climate Change (GCC) have been recently released, but not one of these assessments has specifically addressed the critical issue of the potential impacts of GCC on ephemeral freshwater systems (EFS). I suggest that this is a major oversight as EFS occur in various forms across the globe. In...

Comparison of potential health and safety impacts of different disposal options for defense high-level wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocher, D.C.; Smith, E.D.; Witherspoon, J.P.

1984-01-01

A comparative assessment has been performed of the potential long- and short-term health and safety impacts of different disposal options for defense high-level wastes. Conservative models and assumptions were used. The assessment suggests that considerations of health and safety will not be significant in choosing among disposal options, primarily because of the need to meet stringent standards in all cases. Rather, the ease and cost of assuring compliance of a particular disposal option with health and safety standards may be a more important factor. 11 references

Developing a model to estimate the potential impact of municipal investment on city health.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitfield, Malcolm; Machaczek, Katarzyna; Green, Geoff

2013-10-01

This article summarizes a process which exemplifies the potential impact of municipal investment on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in city populations. We report on Developing an evidence-based approach to city public health planning and investment in Europe (DECiPHEr), a project part funded by the European Union. It had twin objectives: first, to develop and validate a vocational educational training package for policy makers and political decision takers; second, to use this opportunity to iterate a robust and user-friendly investment tool for maximizing the public health impact of 'mainstream' municipal policies, programs and investments. There were seven stages in the development process shared by an academic team from Sheffield Hallam University and partners from four cities drawn from the WHO European Healthy Cities Network. There were five iterations of the model resulting from this process. The initial focus was CVD as the biggest cause of death and disability in Europe. Our original prototype 'cost offset' model was confined to proximal determinants of CVD, utilizing modified 'Framingham' equations to estimate the impact of population level cardiovascular risk factor reduction on future demand for acute hospital admissions. The DECiPHEr iterations first extended the scope of the model to distal determinants and then focused progressively on practical interventions. Six key domains of local influence on population health were introduced into the model by the development process: education, housing, environment, public health, economy and security. Deploying a realist synthesis methodology, the model then connected distal with proximal determinants of CVD. Existing scientific evidence and cities' experiential knowledge were 'plugged-in' or 'triangulated' to elaborate the causal pathways from domain interventions to public health impacts. A key product is an enhanced version of the cost offset model, named Sheffield Health Effectiveness Framework

Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, D.

2012-12-01

should: 1) provide meaningful, authoritative climate-relevant measures about the status, rates, and trends of key physical, ecological, and societal variables and values to inform decisions on management, research, and education at regional to national scales; 2) identify climate-related conditions and impacts to help develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures and reduce costs of management; and 3) document and communicate the climate-driven dynamic nature and condition of Earth's systems and societies, and provide a coordinated. This presentation will provide an overview of possible climate impacts on the built environment. Also, given that spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques will be of paramount importance in assessing these impacts and in preparing adaptation strategies, the presentation will provide examples of how these techniques can be used to identify potential impacts of climate change on the built environment.

Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

2016-12-01

Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

The Potential Impact of Up-Front Drug Sensitivity Testing on India's Epidemic of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuldeep Singh Sachdeva

Full Text Available In India as elsewhere, multi-drug resistance (MDR poses a serious challenge in the control of tuberculosis (TB. The End TB strategy, recently approved by the world health assembly, aims to reduce TB deaths by 95% and new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035. A key pillar of this approach is early diagnosis of tuberculosis, including use of higher-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST. Despite limitations of current laboratory assays, universal access to rapid DST could become more feasible with the advent of new and emerging technologies. Here we use a mathematical model of TB transmission, calibrated to the TB epidemic in India, to explore the potential impact of a major national scale-up of rapid DST. To inform key parameters in a clinical setting, we take GeneXpert as an example of a technology that could enable such scale-up. We draw from a recent multi-centric demonstration study conducted in India that involved upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of all TB suspects.We find that widespread, public-sector deployment of high-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal DST appropriately linked with treatment could substantially impact MDR-TB in India. Achieving 75% access over 3 years amongst all cases being diagnosed for TB in the public sector alone could avert over 180,000 cases of MDR-TB (95% CI 44187 - 317077 cases between 2015 and 2025. Sufficiently wide deployment of Xpert could, moreover, turn an increasing MDR epidemic into a diminishing one. Synergistic effects were observed with assumptions of simultaneously improving MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Our results illustrate the potential impact of new and emerging technologies that enable widespread, timely DST, and the important effect that universal rapid DST in the public sector can have on the MDR-TB epidemic in India.

The Importance of Supratidal Habitats for Wintering Shorebirds and the Potential Impacts of Shrimp Aquaculture

Science.gov (United States)

Yasué, M.; Dearden, P.

2009-06-01

Intensive black tiger shrimp ( Penaeus monodon) aquaculture ponds have replaced significant areas of coastal wetlands throughout tropical Asia. Few studies have assessed potential impacts on avian foraging habitats. At Khao Sam Roi Yod National Park, Thailand, seminatural wetlands have been converted to either shrimp ponds or to salinization ponds that provide saline water for shrimp aquaculture. Although shorebirds cannot feed in aquaculture ponds, hypersaline ponds can provide productive foraging areas. Thus, the overall impact of the shrimp industry on shorebirds depends partly on the relative quality of the salt ponds compared to seminatural wetlands. In this study, we examined wintering shorebird use of tidal ( N = 5 sites) and supratidal areas (four wetland sites, four salt pond sites) and compared the shorebird community (14 species), prey availability, profitability, and disturbance rates between wetlands and salt ponds. Two shorebird species fed in higher densities in wetlands, whereas seven species were more abundant in salt ponds. Large juvenile fish and dragonfly larvae were more abundant in wetlands, whereas there were more small Chironomid midge and fly larvae in salt ponds. We conclude that salt ponds might provide higher-quality foraging habitats compared to wetlands for small shorebirds species because of the abundance of small larvae. However, the shrimp aquaculture industry reduces habitat availability for shorebirds feeding on larger prey. This study demonstrates a comprehensive, multispecies approach to assess the impacts of a large-scale change in coastal habitats for wintering shorebirds.

Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, J.

2017-12-01

There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

Applying GRADE-CERQual to qualitative evidence synthesis findings-paper 7: understanding the potential impacts of dissemination bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, Andrew; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather; Toews, Ingrid; Noyes, Jane; Rashidian, Arash; Berg, Rigmor C; Nyakang'o, Brenda; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2018-01-25

The GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research) approach has been developed by the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) Working Group. The approach has been developed to support the use of findings from qualitative evidence syntheses in decision-making, including guideline development and policy formulation. CERQual includes four components for assessing how much confidence to place in findings from reviews of qualitative research (also referred to as qualitative evidence syntheses): (1) methodological limitations, (2) coherence, (3) adequacy of data and (4) relevance. This paper is part of a series providing guidance on how to apply CERQual and focuses on a probable fifth component, dissemination bias. Given its exploratory nature, we are not yet able to provide guidance on applying this potential component of the CERQual approach. Instead, we focus on how dissemination bias might be conceptualised in the context of qualitative research and the potential impact dissemination bias might have on an overall assessment of confidence in a review finding. We also set out a proposed research agenda in this area. We developed this paper by gathering feedback from relevant research communities, searching MEDLINE and Web of Science to identify and characterise the existing literature discussing or assessing dissemination bias in qualitative research and its wider implications, developing consensus through project group meetings, and conducting an online survey of the extent, awareness and perceptions of dissemination bias in qualitative research. We have defined dissemination bias in qualitative research as a systematic distortion of the phenomenon of interest due to selective dissemination of studies or individual study findings. Dissemination bias is important for qualitative evidence syntheses as the selective dissemination of qualitative studies and/or study findings may distort our understanding of

Preliminary Assessment of Potential Impacts to Dungeness Crabs from Disposal of Dredged Materials from the Columbia River

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pearson, Walter H.; Miller, Martin C.; Williams, Greg D.; Kohn, Nancy P.; Skalski, John R.

2006-02-01

Dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about dredging-related impacts on Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister). The overall objectives of this effort are to synthesize what is known about disposal effects on Dungeness crabs (Phase 1) and to offer approaches to quantify the effects, including approaches to gain a population-level perspective on any effects found in subsequent studies (Phase 2). This report documents Phase 1, which included (1) development of a conceptual model to integrate knowledge about crab biology and the physical processes occurring during disposal, (2) application of physics-based numerical modeling of the disposal event to understand the physical forces and processes to which a crab might be exposed during disposal, (3) conduct of a vulnerability analysis to identify the potential mechanisms by which crabs may be injured, and (4) recommendations of topics and approaches for future studies to assess the potential population-level effects of disposal on Dungeness crabs. The conceptual model first recognizes that disposal of dredged materials is a physically dynamic process with three aspects: (1) convective descent and bottom encounter, (2) dynamic collapse and spreading, and (3) mounding. Numerical modeling was used to assess the magnitude of the potentially relevant forces and extent of mounding in single disposal events. The modeling outcomes show that predicted impact pressure, shear stress, and mound depth are greatly reduced by discharge in deep water, and somewhat reduced at longer discharge duration. The analysis of numerical modeling results and vulnerabilities indicate that the vulnerability of crabs to compression forces under any of the disposal scenarios is low. For the deep-water disposal scenarios, the maximum forces and mounding do not appear to be sufficiently high enough to warrant concern for surge currents or burial at the depths involved (over 230 ft). For the shallow-water (45 to 65 ft), short

Clarifying socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures related to potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-06-01

Research conducted to clarify the socioeconomic impacts on the Denver-Boulder area of potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant and the mitigation measures taken to contain these impacts are described. Two primary alternatives have been examined, including the relocation of certain activities associated with radioactive materials, as well as a total phase out of the plant over the next decade. These perspectives include an assessment of alternative uses for Rocky Flats by both governmental agencies and private sector developers. Major findings address location, employment, public involvement, private enterprises, community attitudes, employee relocation; land use; and environment

[Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru].

Science.gov (United States)

Bardach, Ariel E; Caporale, Joaquín E; Alcaraz, Andrea; Augustovski, Federico; Huayanay-Falconí, Leandro; Loza-Munarriz, Cesar; Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Pichon-Riviere, Andrés

2016-01-01

. To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

Energy dissipation by submarine obstacles during landslide impact on reservoir - potentially avoiding catastrophic dam collapse

Science.gov (United States)

Kafle, Jeevan; Kattel, Parameshwari; Mergili, Martin; Fischer, Jan-Thomas; Tuladhar, Bhadra Man; Pudasaini, Shiva P.

2017-04-01

Dense geophysical mass flows such as landslides, debris flows and debris avalanches may generate super tsunami waves as they impact water bodies such as the sea, hydraulic reservoirs or mountain lakes. Here, we apply a comprehensive and general two-phase, physical-mathematical mass flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) that consists of non-linear and hyperbolic-parabolic partial differential equations for mass and momentum balances, and present novel, high-resolution simulation results for two-phase flows, as a mixture of solid grains and viscous fluid, impacting fluid reservoirs with obstacles. The simulations demonstrate that due to the presence of different obstacles in the water body, the intense flow-obstacle-interaction dramatically reduces the flow momentum resulting in the rapid energy dissipation around the obstacles. With the increase of obstacle height overtopping decreases but, the deflection and capturing (holding) of solid mass increases. In addition, the submarine solid mass is captured by the multiple obstacles and the moving mass decreases both in amount and speed as each obstacle causes the flow to deflect into two streams and also captures a portion of it. This results in distinct tsunami and submarine flow dynamics with multiple surface water and submarine debris waves. This novel approach can be implemented in open source GIS modelling framework r.avaflow, and be applied in hazard mitigation, prevention and relevant engineering or environmental tasks. This might be in particular for process chains, such as debris impacts in lakes and subsequent overtopping. So, as the complex flow-obstacle-interactions strongly and simultaneously dissipate huge energy at impact such installations potentially avoid great threat against the integrity of the dam. References: Pudasaini, S. P. (2012): A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F03010, doi: 10.1029/ 2011JF002186.

EDTA and HCl leaching of calcareous and acidic soils polluted with potentially toxic metals: remediation efficiency and soil impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Udovic, Metka; Lestan, Domen

2012-07-01

The environmental risk of potentially toxic metals (PTMs) in soil can be diminished by their removal. Among the available remediation techniques, soil leaching with various solutions is one of the most effective but data about the impact on soil chemical and biological properties are still scarce. We studied the effect of two common leaching agents, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and a chelating agent (EDTA) on Pb, Zn, Cd removal and accessibility and on physico-chemical and biological properties in one calcareous, pH neutral soil and one non-calcareous acidic soil. EDTA was a more efficient leachant compared to HCl: up to 133-times lower chelant concentration was needed for the same percentage (35%) of Pb removal. EDTA and HCl concentrations with similar PTM removal efficiency decreased PTM accessibility in both soils but had different impacts on soil properties. As expected, HCl significantly dissolved carbonates from calcareous soil, while EDTA leaching increased the pH of the acidic soil. Enzyme activity assays showed that leaching with HCl had a distinctly negative impact on soil microbial and enzyme activity, while leaching with EDTA had less impact. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the ecological impact of remediation processes on soil in addition to the capacity for PTM removal. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Potential Environmental Impacts from Large-Scale Use and Production of Hydrogen in Energy and Transportation Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Dubey, M.K., Edmonds, J.; Layzell, D.; Olsen, S.; Rahn, T.; Rocket, A.; Wang, D.; Jia, W.

2010-06-01

The purpose of this project is to systematically identify and examine possible near and long-term ecological and environmental effects from the production of hydrogen from various energy sources based on the DOE hydrogen production strategy and the use of that hydrogen in transportation applications. This project uses state-of-the-art numerical modeling tools of the environment and energy system emissions in combination with relevant new and prior measurements and other analyses to assess the understanding of the potential ecological and environmental impacts from hydrogen market penetration. H2 technology options and market penetration scenarios will be evaluated using energy-technology-economics models as well as atmospheric trace gas projections based on the IPCC SRES scenarios including the decline in halocarbons due to the Montreal Protocol. Specifically we investigate the impact of hydrogen releases on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, the long-term stability of the ozone layer due to changes in hydrogen emissions, the impact of hydrogen emissions and resulting concentrations on climate, the impact on microbial ecosystems involved in hydrogen uptake, and criteria pollutants emitted from distributed and centralized hydrogen production pathways and their impacts on human health, air quality, ecosystems, and structures under different penetration scenarios

Morse potential, symmetric Morse potential and bracketed bound-state energies

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Znojil, Miloslav

2016-01-01

Roč. 31, č. 14 (2016), s. 1650088 ISSN 0217-7323 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-22945S Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum bound states * special functions * Morse potential * symmetrized Morse potential * upper and lower energy estimates * computer-assisted symbolic manipulations Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.165, year: 2016

An exploration of the potential impact of the designated driver campaign on bartenders' willingness to over-serve.

Science.gov (United States)

Reiling, Denise M; Nusbaumer, Michael R

2007-12-01

Much has been written about the impact of the presence of a designated driver on patrons' consumption, but heretofore, its impact on the behaviour of the server has been virtually ignored. The goal of this paper, then, was to explore the potential impact of the presence of a designated driver on alcoholic beverage servers' self-reported willingness to knowingly serve an already intoxicated customer. chi(2) analysis of survey data collected from 938 licensed servers, in the state of Indiana, USA, was performed. Approximately 43% of the bartenders surveyed reported that they either would be or might be willing to over-serve an already intoxicated customer. Of those who answered the follow-up question as to under what conditions they would be willing to over-serve, almost 80% reported that they would do so if the patron were accompanied by a designated driver. The statistical significance of the relationship between these two variables (.000) raises the question of whether the Designated Driver Campaign has the latent function of enabling some servers to neutralize their responsibility for over-serving by disregarding other types of intoxication-related harm.

Didymosphenia geminata invasion in South America: Ecosystem impacts and potential biogeochemical state change in Patagonian rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Brian; Torres, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

The diatom Didymosphenia geminata has emerged as a major global concern, as both an aggressive invader of rivers and streams in the southern hemisphere, and for its ability to form nuisance blooms in oligotrophic systems in its native range. South American D. geminata blooms were first documented in Chilean Patagonia in May 2010, and have spread to over five regions and three provinces, in Chile and Argentina respectively. The Patagonian invasion represents a distinct challenge compared to other regions; not only are affected systems poorly characterized, but also a general synthesis of the nature and magnitude of ecosystem impacts is still lacking. The latter is essential in evaluating impacts to ecosystem services, forms the basis for a management response that is proportional to the potentially valid threats, or aids in the determination of whether action is warranted or feasible. Based on a revision of the recent literature, some of the most significant impacts may be mediated through physical changes: substantially increased algal biomass, trapping of fine sediment, altered hydrodynamics, and consequent effects on biogeochemical states and processes such as redox condition, pH and nutrient cycling in the benthic zone. Surveys conducted during the early invasion in Chile show a strong correlation between benthic biomass and associated fine sediments, both of which were one-two orders of magnitude higher within D. geminata blooms. Experimental phosphorous amendments showed significant abiotic uptake, while interstitial water in D. geminata mats had nearly 10-20 fold higher soluble reactive phosphorous and a pronounced pH cycle compared to the water column. A dominant and aggressive stalk-forming diatom with this combination of characteristics is in sharp contrast to the colonial cyanobacteria and bare gravel substrate that characterize many Patagonian streams. The potential displacement of native benthic algal communities with contrasting functional groups

Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Velpuri, N. M.; Senay, G. B.

2012-10-01

Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 yr (1998-2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different approaches - a historical approach, a rainfall based approach, and a statistical approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8-10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 1-2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modeled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modeling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of dam commencement. Areas

Mobility of potentially harmful metals in latosols impacted by the municipal solid waste deposit of Londrina, Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza Teixeira, Raquel; Cambier, Philippe; Davison Dias, Regina; Peccinini Pinese, Jose Paulo; Jaulin-Soubelet, Anne

2010-01-01

The contamination of soils by metals issuing from municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in tropical environments has hardly been studied with regard to the particular problems associated with them, i.e., generally a high permeability of soils despite the abundance of clay, and the role of reactive Fe compounds. From a previous geotechnical and chemical survey, three latosol profiles differently affected by MSW leachates in the region of Londrina (Parana, Brazil) were selected. The aims were to evaluate the extent of their contamination, to better understand the fate of potentially harmful metals in tropical soils and rank the determining factors. Samples between 0.5 and 7 m depth were analyzed for their physical, mineralogical and chemical properties, and their micro-morphology was described by optical and transmission electron microscopy. Two steps of a sequential extraction procedure helped to assess the mobility of elements and to better discriminate between metals originating from pedogenesis and issued from MSW. These combined approaches showed that exposed soil profiles have been impacted at various depths, down to 7 m, through increased metal content, especially enhanced mobility of Zn, Co, Mn, Cu and Fe, and through increased salinity and organic matter. The mobility of potentially harmful metals should decrease with pH, which significantly increased in some impacted horizons, but other factors can reverse this trend.

Carcar Chicharon: A Potential for Tourism Impact Studies

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Ian Christian P. Cosido

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study determines the economic potential of chicharon business in Carcar City, Cebu, Philippines. It answers these objectives to: (1 check its profile with reference to: capitalization, volume of products, types of products, marketing, profit and number of workers; (2 ascertain its problems; (3 assess its economic potential to different stakeholders, namely: business owners, workers, vendors, and the community; and (4 evaluate its effects to the other sectors of the city.This study used an ethnographic design with naturalistic observation, interviews of key informants, field notes, and supported with secondary data. KIs were interviewed through interview guides, during their most convenient time. To observe ethics, names of KIs and other stakeholders were held confidentially. The findings were validated through expert triangulation. The chicharon business contributed to Carcar’s small scale industry. Despite various challenges faced; it continued to grow, contributing to the socio-economic development. Its potential cascaded to other economic sectors, especially for the city’s viability as a tourism hub. For further investigation, these are hereby recommended: culture and heritage advocates may continue to find ways to preserve the city’s centuries old delicacy; adoption of new technologies to make the products competitive in local and global markets; and follow up studies to sustain the business’ economic potentiality. Government agencies may continue its present programs to sustain the business; strong financial assistance; improved environmental sanitations; programs and trainings, efficient machinery to help the business prosper and make Carcar a potential tourist destination.

Sodium intake in US ethnic subgroups and potential impact of a new sodium reduction technology: NHANES Dietary Modeling.

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Fulgoni, Victor L; Agarwal, Sanjiv; Spence, Lisa; Samuel, Priscilla

2014-12-18

Because excessive dietary sodium intake is a major contributor to hypertension, a reduction in dietary sodium has been recommended for the US population. Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 data, we estimated current sodium intake in US population ethnic subgroups and modeled the potential impact of a new sodium reduction technology on sodium intake. NHANES 2007-2010 data were analyzed using The National Cancer Institute method to estimate usual intake in population subgroups. Potential impact of SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres sodium reduction technology on sodium intake was modeled using suggested sodium reductions of 20-30% in 953 foods and assuming various market penetrations. SAS 9.2, SUDAAN 11, and NHANES survey weights were used in all calculations with assessment across age, gender and ethnic groups. Current sodium intake across all population subgroups exceeds the Dietary Guidelines 2010 recommendations and has not changed during the last decade. However, sodium intake measured as a function of food intake has decreased significantly during the last decade for all ethnicities. "Grain Products" and "Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Mixtures" contribute about 2/3rd of total sodium intake. Sodium reduction, using SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres sodium reduction technology (with 100% market penetration) was estimated to be 185-323 mg/day or 6.3-8.4% of intake depending upon age, gender and ethnic group. Current sodium intake in US ethnic subgroups exceeds the recommendations and sodium reduction technologies could potentially help reduce dietary sodium intake among those groups.

Potential Impacts of two SO2 oxidation pathways on regional sulfate concentrations: acqueous-hase oxidation by NO2 and gas-phase oxidation by Stabilized Criegee Intermediates

Science.gov (United States)

We examine the potential impacts of two additional sulfate production pathways using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. First we evaluate the impact of the aqueous-phase oxidation of S(IV) by nitrogen dioxide using two published rate constants, differing by 1-2...

Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Farms on North Sea Stratification

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Jeffrey R.; Merckelbach, Lucas; Callies, Ulrich; Clark, Suzanna; Gaslikova, Lidia; Baschek, Burkard

2016-01-01

Advances in offshore wind farm (OWF) technology have recently led to their construction in coastal waters that are deep enough to be seasonally stratified. As tidal currents move past the OWF foundation structures they generate a turbulent wake that will contribute to a mixing of the stratified water column. In this study we show that the mixing generated in this way may have a significant impact on the large-scale stratification of the German Bight region of the North Sea. This region is chosen as the focus of this study since the planning of OWFs is particularly widespread. Using a combination of idealised modelling and in situ measurements, we provide order-of-magnitude estimates of two important time scales that are key to understanding the impacts of OWFs: (i) a mixing time scale, describing how long a complete mixing of the stratification takes, and (ii) an advective time scale, quantifying for how long a water parcel is expected to undergo enhanced wind farm mixing. The results are especially sensitive to both the drag coefficient and type of foundation structure, as well as the evolution of the pycnocline under enhanced mixing conditions—both of which are not well known. With these limitations in mind, the results show that OWFs could impact the large-scale stratification, but only when they occupy extensive shelf regions. They are expected to have very little impact on large-scale stratification at the current capacity in the North Sea, but the impact could be significant in future large-scale development scenarios. PMID:27513754

Impacts of tourism hotspots on vegetation communities show a higher potential for self-propagation along roads than hiking trails.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Isabelle D; Croft, David B

2014-10-01

Vegetation communities along recreational tracks may suffer from substantial edge-effects through the impacts of trampling, modified environmental conditions and competition with species that benefit from disturbance. We assessed impacts on trackside vegetation by comparing high and low usage tourism sites at a 1-10 m distance from recreational tracks in a popular arid-lands tourism destination in South Australia. The central aim was quantification of the strengths and spatial extent of tourism impacts along recreational tracks with a qualitative comparison of roads and trails. Track-distance gradients were most prevalent at high usage sites. There, species community composition was altered, total plant cover decreased, non-native species cover increased, plant diversity increased or decreased (depending on the distance) and soil compaction increased towards recreational tracks. Roadside effects were greater and more pervasive than trailside effects. Further, plant diversity did not continuously increase towards the road verge as it did along trails but dropped sharply in the immediate road shoulder which indicated high disturbance conditions that few species were able to tolerate. To our knowledge, we are the first to demonstrate that the access mode to a recreation site influences the potential of certain impacts, such as the increase of non-native species, to self-perpetuate from their points of introduction to disjointed sites with a predisposition to disturbance. Due to this propulsion of impacts, the overall spatial extent of roadside impacts was far greater than initially apparent from assessments at the road verge. We discuss possible means of mitigating these impacts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the potential impact of implementing carbon capture technologies in fossil fuel power plants on regional European water stress index levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schakel, W.B.; Pfister, Stephan; Ramirez, C.A.

Equipping power plants with carbon capture technology can affect cooling demand and water use. This study has explored the potential impact of large scale deployment of power plants with carbon capture technologies on future regional water stress in Europe. A database including 458 of European

The potential impact of white-nose syndrome on the conservation status of north american bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davi M C C Alves

Full Text Available White-Nose syndrome (WNS is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.

The potential impact of white-nose syndrome on the conservation status of north american bats.

Science.gov (United States)

Alves, Davi M C C; Terribile, Levi C; Brito, Daniel

2014-01-01

White-Nose syndrome (WNS) is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.

Hydrological evaluation of a peri-urban stream and its impact on ecosystem services potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caro-Borrero Angela

2015-01-01

The rivers of the Magdalena–Eslava sub-basin are among the few remaining surficial water sources in Mexico City. These rivers are located in an area classified as a Soil Conservation Zone, which has been intensely managed for decades. The aims of this paper are (1 to perform a hydrological evaluation of two urban streams and identify their relationship with the provision of hydrological ecosystem services via (i a hydraulic balance analysis, (ii a hydro-geomorphological characterization of each stream, (iii an estimate of present and potential hydraulic erosion, (iv the determination of physicochemical and bacteriological parameters and (v a description of macroinvertebrates, macroalgae and their habitats in order to (2 identify the impacts of socio-economic dynamics on the responses of this rural-urban lotic system. Our results show that water flow, forest cover and hydro-geomorphologic heterogeneity are key to sustaining ecosystem functioning, especially in the high and middle sections of the basin. The highest potential provision of water for direct use was recorded in the sub-basin’s middle section; however, the stream channels in that section have lost their natural water flow due to a water management infrastructure built to regulate flow during the rainy season. This intervention can be viewed as a regulation of HESs as water management infrastructure alters the transport of sediment and reduces available natural habitat. The provision of quality water in the lower area of the sub-basin has been seriously compromised by the establishment of illegal urban settlements. A relationship between biologically diverse ecological traits and their response capabilities was established and can be considered an indicator of current HES potential. Therefore, this sub-basin may constitute an example of good management and maximizing potential HESs in an urban-rural setting based on improved management strategies that could be applied in other developing nations.

Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkemik, K. Ali

2011-01-01

Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.

Determination of the potential implementation impact of 2016 ministry of environmental protection generic assessment criteria for potentially contaminated sites in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Yuanyuan; Tang, Yu-Ting; Nathanail, C Paul

2017-04-12

The Ministry of Environmental Protection of China issued a 3rd draft edition of risk-based Generic Assessment Criteria (the MEP-GAC) in March 2016. Since these will be the first authoritative GAC in China, their implementation is likely to have a significant impact on China's growing contaminated land management sector. This study aims to determine the potential implementation impact of the MEP-GAC through an in-depth analysis of the management context, land use scenarios, health criteria values adopted and exposure pathways considered. The MEP-GAC have been proposed for two broad categories of land use scenarios for contaminated land risk assessment, and these two categories of land use scenarios need to be further delved, and a MEP-GAC for Chinese cultivated land scenario ought to be developed, to ensure human health protection of Chinese farmers. The MEP-GAC have adopted 10 -6 as the acceptable lifetime cancer risk, given the widespread extent and severe level of land contamination in China, consideration should be given to the decision on excess lifetime cancer risk of 10 -5 . During risk assessment process in practice, it is better to review the 20% TDI against local circumstances to determine their suitability before adopting it. The MEP-GAC are based on a SOM value of 1%, for regions with particularly high SOM, it might be necessary to develop regional GAC, due to SOM's significant impact on the GAC developed. An authoritative risk assessment model developed based on HJ25.3-2014 would help facilitate the DQRA process in practice. The MEP-GAC could better reflect the likely exposures of China's citizens due to vapour inhalation by using characteristics of Chinese exposure scenarios, including China-generic building stock, as inputs into the Johnson and Ettinger model as opposed to adoption of the US EPA parameters. The MEP-GAC once implemented will set the trajectory for the development of the investigation, assessment and remediation of land contamination

Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands : The impact of varying the discount rate for health

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M.; Brouwers, Jacobus R. B. J.; Postma, Maarten J.

2009-01-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be

The Potential Impact of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on public health.

Science.gov (United States)

De Vogli, Roberto; Renzetti, Noemi

2016-01-01

This article aims to examine the potential health effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership (TTIP). Our review indicates that, although proponents of the TTIP claim that the treaty will produce benefits to health-enhancing determinants such as economic growth and employment, evidence shows that previous trade liberalization policies are associated with increasing economic inequities. By reducing Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and by promoting increased cooperation between US and EU governmental agencies in the pharmaceutical sector, the TTIP could result in improved research cooperation and reduced duplication of processes. However, the TTIP chapter on Intellectual Property (IP) and Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) that expand and extend patent monopolies, and delay the availability of generic drugs, are likely to cause underutilization of needed medications among vulnerable populations. The TTIP's Investor to State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) arbitration system, a mechanism that allows transnational companies (TNCs) to sue governments when a policy or law reduces the value of their investment, is likely to generate a negative impact on regulations aimed at increasing access to healthcare, and reducing tobacco, alcohol consumption, and diet-related diseases. The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) of the TTIP is expected to weaken regulations in the food and agricultural sectors especially in the EU, with potentially negative effects on food safety and foodborne diseases. Finally, the ISDS is likely to infringe the ability of governments to tackle environmental problems such as climate change deemed to be the most important global health threat of the century. Our review concludes by discussing policy implications and the effect of the TTIP on democracy, national sovereignty and the balance of power between large TNCs and governments. It also discusses the adoption of an evidence-based precautionary principle

Optimizing decentralized renewable energy production by combining potentials and integrated environmental impact analysis. A case study in the Hannover region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palmas, Claudia; Siewert, Almut [Leibniz Univ. of Hannover (Germany). Dept. of Environmental Planning

2013-07-01

In Europe, the integration of decentralized renewable energy production in regional planning processes plays a crucial role. In particular, regions face a major challenge in order to set up renewable decentralized energy systems and incorporate them into the electricity grid. This paper presents a methodological concept and preliminary tests of applications in order to create an optimization model for an improved renewable energy development and planning practice: firstly, the energy potentials of micro renewable resources are estimated, and secondly the outcomes are combined with an estimation of resulting environmental impacts. Including these data into the spatial analysis, different scenarios can be developed in order to support decision making in landscape planning on the basis of environmental and landscape criteria as well as energy issues, including technical aspects and costs. The case study area is the Hannover region. First results show good energy potentials, which will be in a next step evaluated and combined with environmental impacts in order to improve energy efficiency by integrated renewable, decentralized power plants and energy mix. (orig.)

Potential Well Water Contaminants and Their Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

The first step to protect your health and the health of your family is learning about what may pollute your source of drinking water. Potential contamination may occur naturally, or as a result of human activity.

A review of DTCA techniques: Appraising their success and potential impact on medication users.

Science.gov (United States)

Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din; Siraj, Ashna Medina; Curley, Louise

2018-03-01

subsequent success in sales. However some techniques, although beneficial to pharmaceutical promotion, need to be monitored by policymakers and regulatory advisors, as they have the potential to negatively impact consumer health knowledge. Overall, through this review it is evident that there are a number if techniques that employed by pharmaceutical marketers to augment the success of pharmaceutical promotion. While these techniques may be beneficial to pharmaceutical companies and might increase awareness amongst consumers, it is important to be critical of them, as they have the potential to be exploited by pharmaceutical marketers. This review indicated that although some techniques are successful and appear to be satisfactory in providing information to consumers, other techniques need to be appraised more closely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

2016-01-01

Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

Psychiatric History, Deployments, and Potential Impacts of Mental Health Care in a Combat Theater.

Science.gov (United States)

Varga, Colleen M; Haibach, Michael A; Rowan, Anderson B; Haibach, Jeffrey P

2018-01-01

Increasing numbers of U.S. service members access mental health care while deployed and at home station. Multiple deployments carry with them a higher risk of exposure to combat as well as the impact of cumulative stressors associated with separation from family, hostile environments, and high operations tempo. However, mental health care resources continue to be underutilized, potentially because of higher levels of stigma regarding mental health care and concerns about career impact among service members. Some studies indicate that service members who have previously sought mental health care are likely to continue to do so proactively as needed. This study examined the associations between prior deployments, prior mental health treatment, and subsequent career-impacting recommendations (e.g., duty limitations and medical evacuation) among deployed service members seeking mental health care. Materials and. This study is a retrospective review of clinical records from three U.S. military Combat and Operational Stress Control units in Afghanistan. Data were drawn from the mental health records of 1,639 Army service members presenting for outpatient mental health services while deployed in Afghanistan from years 2006 to 2008. In an unadjusted logistic regression model, service members with at least one prior deployment had a 38% greater odds (odds ratio [OR] = 1.38, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.06, 1.80; p mental health treatment had a 57% lower odds (OR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.34, 0.56; p mental health treatment. After adjusting for demographics and number of prior deployments, service members with prior mental health treatment had a 58% lower odds (OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.33, 0.56; p mental health treatment. Among service members who had a clinical mental health encounter, prior deployment was not associated with career-impacting recommendations and prior mental health treatment appeared to be protective against career-impacting recommendations. These results are in

Review of potential impacts to sea turtles from underwater explosive removal of offshore structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viada, Stephen T.; Hammer, Richard M.; Racca, Roberto; Hannay, David; Thompson, M. John; Balcom, Brian J.; Phillips, Neal W.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to collect and synthesize existing information relevant to the explosive removal of offshore structures (EROS) in aquatic environments. Data sources were organized and summarized by topic - explosive removal methods, physics of underwater explosions, sea turtle resources, documented impacts to sea turtles, and mitigation of effects. Information was gathered via electronic database searches and literature source review. Bulk explosive charges are the most commonly used technique in EROS. While the physical principles of underwater detonations and the propagation of pressure and acoustic waves are well understood, there are significant gaps in the application of this knowledge. Impacts to sea turtles from explosive removal operations may range from non-injurious effects (e.g. acoustic annoyance; mild tactile detection or physical discomfort) to varying levels of injury (i.e. non-lethal and lethal injuries). Very little information exists regarding the impacts of underwater explosions on sea turtles. Effects of explosions on turtles often must be inferred from documented effects to other vertebrates with lungs or other gas-containing organs, such as mammals and most fishes. However, a cautious approach should be used when determining impacts to sea turtles based on extrapolations from other vertebrates. The discovery of beached sea turtles and bottlenose dolphins following an explosive platform removal event in 1986 prompted the initiation of formal consultation between the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), authorized through the Endangered Species Act Section 7, to determine a mechanism to minimize potential impacts to listed species. The initial consultation resulted in a requirement for oil and gas companies to obtain a permit (through separate consultations on a case-by-case basis) prior to using explosives in Federal waters. Because many offshore

Subliminal Emotional Words Impact Syntactic Processing: Evidence from Performance and Event-Related Brain Potentials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Jiménez-Ortega

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Recent studies demonstrate that syntactic processing can be affected by emotional information and that subliminal emotional information can also affect cognitive processes. In this study, we explore whether unconscious emotional information may also impact syntactic processing. In an Event-Related brain Potential (ERP study, positive, neutral and negative subliminal adjectives were inserted within neutral sentences, just before the presentation of the supraliminal adjective. They could either be correct (50% or contain a morphosyntactic violation (number or gender disagreements. Larger error rates were observed for incorrect sentences than for correct ones, in contrast to most studies using supraliminal information. Strikingly, emotional adjectives affected the conscious syntactic processing of sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies. The neutral condition elicited left anterior negativity (LAN followed by a P600 component. However, a lack of anterior negativity and an early P600 onset for the negative condition were found, probably as a result of the negative subliminal correct adjective capturing early syntactic resources. Positive masked adjectives in turn prompted an N400 component in response to morphosyntactic violations, probably reflecting the induction of a heuristic processing mode involving access to lexico-semantic information to solve agreement anomalies. Our results add to recent evidence on the impact of emotional information on syntactic processing, while showing that this can occur even when the reader is unaware of the emotional stimuli.

The Potential Impacts of OTEC Intakes on Aquatic Organisms at an OTEC Site under Development on Kauai, HI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oney, Stephen K. [OTE Corporation; Hogan, Timothy [Alden Research Laboratory; Steinbeck, John [Tenera Environmental

2013-08-31

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy technology with the potential to contribute significantly to the baseload power needs of tropical island communities and remote U.S. military installations. As with other renewable energy technologies, however, there are potential challenges to its commercialization: technological, financial, social, and environmental. Given the large volumes of seawater required to drive the electricity-producing cycle, there is potential for the intakes to negatively impact the marine resources of the source waterbody through the impingement and entrainment of marine organisms. The goal of this project was to identify feasible warm water intake designs for a land-based OTEC facility proposed for development in Port Allen, Kauai and to characterize the populations of ichthyoplankton near the proposed warm water intake location that could be at risk of entrainment. The specific objectives of this project were to: • Complete a site-specific assessment of available and feasible warm water intake technologies to determine the best intake designs for minimizing impacts to aquatic organisms at the proposed land-based OTEC site in Port Allen, Kauai. • Complete a field sampling program to collect biological data to characterize the baseline populations of ichthyoplankton near the sites being considered for the warm water intake at the proposed land-based OTEC site in Port Allen, Kauai. Various intake design options are presented with the focus on providing adequate environmental protection to the local ichthyoplankton population while providing an economically viable intake option to the OTEC developer. Further definition by NOAA and other environmental regulators is required to further refine the designs presented to meet all US regulations for future OTEC development.

Geothermal energy from the earth: Its potential impact as an environmentally sustainable resource

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mock, J.E.; Tester, J.W.; Wright, P.M.

1997-01-01

Geothermal energy technology is reviewed in terms of its current impact and future potential as an energy source. In general, the geothermal energy resource base is large and well distributed globally. Geothermal systems have a number of positive social characteristics (they are simple, safe, and adaptable systems with modular 1--50 MW [thermal (t) or electric (e)] plants capable of providing continuous baseload, load following, or peaking capacity) and benign environmental attributes (negligible emissions of CO 2 , SO x , NO x , and particulates, and modest land and water use). Because these features are compatible with sustainable growth of global energy supplies in both developed and developing countries, geothermal energy is an attractive option to replace fossil and fissile fuels. In 1997, about 7,000 MWe of base-load generating capacity and over 15,000 MWt of heating capacity from high-grade geothermal resources are in commercial use worldwide. 114 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land-management objectives....

Exploring the Potential Impact of Greenland Meltwater on Stratification, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, and Primary Production in the Labrador Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Hilde; Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; van Dijken, Gert L.; Mattingly, Kyle S.; Rosen, Joshua J.; Mote, Thomas L.; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Yager, Patricia L.

2018-04-01

In July 2012, the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melted to an extent unprecedented over the last 100 years; we questioned the potential for such an extreme melt event to impact marine phytoplankton offshore. We hypothesized that stratification from meltwater could reduce light limitation for phytoplankton, and used a suite of numerical models to quantify the impact for 2003-2012. Because much of the 2012 meltwater discharged from southern Greenland, our study focused on the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Greenland, and the Labrador Sea. A 1-D phytoplankton model used output from a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled with a Regional Climate Model and a hydrological model of meltwater from runoff sources on the ice sheet, peripheral glaciers, and tundra. ROMS was run with and without meltwater to test the sensitivity of phytoplankton photosynthetic rates to the meltwater input. With meltwater, the pycnocline was shallower during late summer and early fall and thus light limitation on photosynthesis was reduced. Averaged over all years, added meltwater had the potential to increase gross primary production by 3-12% in the summer (July-August), and 13-60% in the fall (September-October). This meltwater effect was amplified when light was more limiting, and thus was greatest in the fall, under cloudier conditions, with higher self-shading, and with more light-sensitive phytoplankton groups. As the GrIS melt is projected to increase, late summer primary production in this region has the potential to increase as well, which could constitute an important biosphere response to high-latitude climate change.

Distiller's Grains for Dairy Cattle and Potential Environmental Impact

OpenAIRE

Stallings, Charles C.

2009-01-01

Describes how distiller's grain's with solubles (DDGS) are produced, covers their protein, fat or oil and phosphorous quantity and quality, provides recommendations for use as feed for dairy cattle, as well as recommendations to minimize environmental impacts.

Electronic excitation of atoms and molecules by electron impact in a linear algebraic, separable potential approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, L.A.; Schneider, B.I.

1984-01-01

The linear algebraic, separable potential approach is applied to the electronic excitation of atoms and molecules by electron impact. By representing the exchange and off-diagonal direct terms on a basis, the standard set of coupled inelastic equations is reduced to a set of elastic inhomogeneous equations. The procedure greatly simplifies the formulation by allowing a large portion of the problem to be handled by standard bound-state techniques and by greatly reducing the order of the scattering equations that must be solved. Application is made to the excitation of atomic hydrogen in the three-state close-coupling (1s, 2s, 2p) approximation. (author)

World potential of renewable energies actually accessible in the nineties and environmental impacts analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessus, B.; Devin, B.; Pharabod, F.

1992-01-01

The role that renewable energies could play in the world's regional and global energy balances gives rise to varied and often quite different evaluations including almost unbounded ones. Reliable information is still available on the different technologies and their economic costs. But, as the commercial development of these renewables is generally very weak, the arguments for postponing their real possible world and regional impact are frequently confused with short term market type considerations. To overcome that difficulty it is proposed to achieve a comprehensive analysis, region by region, of the actually accessible renewable energies at a given horizon. Then we adopt a methodology as the one employed to derive proven renewable energy reserves from energy renewable resources in which resources are defined by quantitative information on physical potential, when reserves take into account technical and economical accessibility

An experimental study of Aurelia aurita feeding behaviour: Inference of the potential predation impact on a temperate estuarine nursery area

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Rita; Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Garrido, Susana

2014-06-01

Temperate estuaries are nursery areas for economically important fisheries resources. The common jellyfish Aurelia aurita is a resident species in many of these areas, where it can reach high abundances. This work aimed to determine the potential for predation of A. aurita on zooplanktonic organisms and early life stages of fishes, measuring feeding rates at concentrations that mimic those occurring for zooplankton, fish eggs and larvae in an estuarine nursery area. A set of experiments was aimed at determining the feeding selectivity of jellyfish when offered a mixture of fish eggs and larvae and wild plankton. Clearance rates varied markedly with prey availability and concentrations. When given mixtures of different prey types, jellyfish preferentially elected some taxa (copepods and fish eggs). Data obtained in the laboratory experiments were used to infer the potential impact of jellyfish predation upon zooplankton and ichthyoplankton in the Guadiana estuary (Southern Iberia). Repeated sampling of zooplankton, fish eggs and medusae was undertaken during the summer season of 2011. Abundance determinations were combined with experimentally estimated clearance rates of individual medusa to infer the potential jellyfish-induced mortality on prey in the area. In June and early August jellyfish-induced mortality rates were very high, and half-life times (t1/2) were consequently short for the zooplankton and ichthyoplankton. Although the potentially overestimation of our feeding rates typical of confined laboratory experiments, the results show high ingestion and clearance rates at high temperatures, typical from summer condition, and results also suggest that either by predation on early life stages of fish, or by competition for food resources, jellyfish may have a significant impact on estuarine communities and its nursery function.

Greenhouse impact of CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O and CFC emissions in Finland and its control potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pipatti, R.; Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1995-12-31

Methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions contribute considerably to the anthropogenic enhancement of Earth`s greenhouse effect. The limitation of atmospheric concentrations of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O is considered important also in the Climate Convention. Chlorine released from the CFCs in the stratosphere destroys ozone (O{sub 3}) and the emissions are therefore regulated with the Montreal Protocol. The greenhouse impact of CFCs might be, at least to some extent, compensated by the depletion of O{sub 3} which is also a greenhouse gas. The objective of the presentation is to assess the role of anthropogenic CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC emissions in the total direct greenhouse impact due to human activities in Finland. The emission estimates for the gases are presented, as well as scenarios for emission history, future development and control potential. The greenhouse impact of the gases is compared with that of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in Finland. (author)

Greenhouse impact of CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O and CFC emissions in Finland and its control potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pipatti, R; Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

Methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions contribute considerably to the anthropogenic enhancement of Earth`s greenhouse effect. The limitation of atmospheric concentrations of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O is considered important also in the Climate Convention. Chlorine released from the CFCs in the stratosphere destroys ozone (O{sub 3}) and the emissions are therefore regulated with the Montreal Protocol. The greenhouse impact of CFCs might be, at least to some extent, compensated by the depletion of O{sub 3} which is also a greenhouse gas. The objective of the presentation is to assess the role of anthropogenic CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC emissions in the total direct greenhouse impact due to human activities in Finland. The emission estimates for the gases are presented, as well as scenarios for emission history, future development and control potential. The greenhouse impact of the gases is compared with that of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in Finland. (author)

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) as keys to the enhancement of public awareness about potential earth impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Usikov, Denis A.

2013-09-01

The 2007 Planetary Defense Conference recommends "to provide or enhance Internet sites to show how threats evolve and to illustrate possible action scenarios". Thereby, establishment of informational and communicational AsteroidAware web-site with the exact, authentic data about the past and the present of Earth's impact events will assist in achievement of positive results and progress in different directions on political, international, social and scientific levels. Expanded ICT's capabilities for popularization of planetary defense can help in resolving the problem of low public interest. The project's primary intent lies in popularizing the concept of planetary defenses and attracting attention to the potential dangers that threaten the Earth from outer space. The result of the efforts falling into the boundaries of this project would be an increased amount of social participation in the process of developing solutions for and increasing awareness of potential collisions between various astral bodies and the Earth. The project is also aimed at creating a foundation for the interaction between scientists and executives from around the world to facilitate international efforts of searching for fitting measures towards lowering threat levels and developing strategies revolving around united actions against potential threats.

Developing a framework for estimating the potential impact of obesity interventions in a European city.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitfield, Malcolm; Bhanbhro, Sadiq; Green, Geoff; Lewis, Kevin; Hindle, Linda; Levy, Cathy

2016-09-01

Obesity is a global challenge for healthy populations. It has given rise to a wide range of public health interventions, focusing on supportive environments and lifestyle change, including diet, physical activity and behavioural change initiatives. Impact is variable. However, more evidence is slowly becoming available and is being used to develop new interventions. In a period of austerity, momentum is building to review these initiatives and understand what they do, how they do it and how they fit together. Our project seeks to develop a relatively straight forward systematic framework using readily accessible data to map the complex web of initiatives at a policy, population, group and individual level aiming to promote healthy lifestyles, diet and physical activity levels or to reduce obesity through medical treatments in a city or municipality population. It produces a system for classifying different types of interventions into groupings which will enable commissioners to assess the scope and distribution of interventions and make a judgement about gaps in provision and the likely impact on mean body mass index (BMI) as a proxy measure for health. Estimated impact in each level or type of intervention is based upon a summary of the scientific evidence of clinical and/or cost effectiveness. Finally it seeks, where possible, to quantify the potential effects of different types of interventions on BMI and produce a cost per unit of BMI reduced. This approach is less sophisticated but identifies the areas where more sophisticated evaluation would add value. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation the potential economic impacts of Taiwanese biomass energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Tso, Chunto

2011-01-01

The Taiwanese rice paddy land set-aside program diverts a substantial land area. Given today's high energy prices and interests in energy security, that set-aside area could be converted to produce bioenergy feedstocks. This study evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of such a policy change using a Taiwanese agricultural sector model. The results show that such a strategy provides increased farm revenue, increased rural employment, increased energy sufficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions but also increased government expenditures. These outcomes indicate that the agricultural sector could play a positive role by producing renewable energy. -- Highlights: → This paper evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of converting set-aside area to produce bioenergy feedstocks. → Taiwanese agricultural sector model is built and applied to evaluate such impacts. → The empirical results show that producing bioenergy using set-aside area could provide increased farm revenue, increased rural employment, increased energy sufficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions but also increased government expenditures. → Agricultural sector in Taiwan could play a positive role by producing renewable energy.

Residents’ Attitudes towards Sustainable Tourism Development in a Historical-Cultural Village: Influence of Perceived Impacts, Sense of Place and Tourism Development Potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

He Zhu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to assess the residents’ support for sustainable tourism development in a destination that is in the initial tourism development stage. Residents’ perception of sustainable tourism development potential, sense of place, perceived tourism impacts, and tourism development support were involved in this study. A total of 331 completed questionnaire surveys were collected in Luozhou, a historical-cultural village in China. The empirical data were analyzed using a structural equation modeling (SEM technique, and the results revealed that perceived collective benefits had a significant positive effect on tourism development support, whereas the other three perceived impacts’ influence were not significant. The relationship between residents’ sense of place and perceived collective and personal benefits, perceived personal costs and tourism development support, were significant. Additionally, residents’ perceptions of tourism development potential had a significant influence on perceived impact and tourism development support except for perceived personal benefits. Some practical implications of those findings for tourism planning and development are also discussed.

Only when the societal impact potential is high? A panel study of the relationship between public service motivation and performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loon, Nina van; Kjeldsen, Anne Mette; Andersen, Lotte Bøgh

Does the performance of public organizations benefit from high public service motivation (PSM) under all circumstances? This article studies whether the societal impact potential (SIP) – the degree to which the job provides opportunities to contribute to society of the job –moderates the relation......Does the performance of public organizations benefit from high public service motivation (PSM) under all circumstances? This article studies whether the societal impact potential (SIP) – the degree to which the job provides opportunities to contribute to society of the job –moderates...... the relationship between PSM and self-perceived performance, first on the individual level, and second on an organizational level. By shifting to the organizational level we are able to provide a test over time. Using organizational panel data from 2010 and 2012 on approximately 13.000 public employees, we...... (organizational level) or even no relationship (individual level) when SIP is low. This is an important insight for organizations that aim to enhance their performance through PSM as it shows that individual motives only contribute to performance when they are accounted for in the design of the work....

An Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of Different Commercial Supermarket Refrigeration Systems Using Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beshr, Mohamed [University of Maryland, College Park; Aute, Vikrant [University of Maryland, College Park; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL; Radermacher, Reinhard [University of Maryland, College Park

2014-01-01

Commercial refrigeration systems consumed 1.21 Quads of primary energy in 2010 and are known to be a major source for refrigerant charge leakage into the environment. Thus, it is important to study the environmental impact of commercial supermarket refrigeration systems and improve their design to minimize any adverse impacts. The system s Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) was presented as a comprehensive metric with the aim of calculating the equivalent mass of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere throughout its lifetime, from construction to operation and destruction. In this paper, an open source tool for the evaluation of the LCCP of different air-conditioning and refrigeration systems is presented and used to compare the environmental impact of a typical multiplex direct expansion (DX) supermarket refrigeration systems based on three different refrigerants as follows: two hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants (R-404A, and R-407F), and a low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant (N-40). The comparison is performed in 8 US cities representing different climates. The hourly energy consumption of the refrigeration system, required for the calculation of the indirect emissions, is calculated using a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of system charge and power plant emission factor on the LCCP results. Finally, we performed an uncertainty analysis to determine the uncertainty in total emissions for both R-404A and N-40 operated systems. We found that using low GWP refrigerants causes a considerable drop in the impact of uncertainty in the inputs related to direct emissions on the uncertainty of the total emissions of the system.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition

Science.gov (United States)

Belle, Jessica H.; Chang, Howard H.; Wang, Yujie; Hu, Xuefei; Lyapustin, Alexei; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, approximately 70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations.

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica H. Belle

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, ~70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations.

Simulating Changes in Land-Atmosphere Interactions From Expanding Agriculture and Irrigation in India and the Potential Impacts on the Indian Monsoon.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, E. M.; Beltran-Przekurat, A.; Niyogi, D.; Pielke, R. A.

2006-05-01

With over 57 million hectares under irrigation in 2002, India has the largest irrigated agricultural area on the planet. Between 80 and 90% of India's water use goes to support irrigated agriculture. The Indian monsoon belt is a home to a large part of the world's population and agriculture is the major land-use activity in the region. Previous results showed that annual vapor fluxes in India have increased by 17% (340 km3) over that which would be expected from a natural (non-agricultural) land cover. Two-thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigated agriculture. The largest increases in vapor and latent heat fluxes occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land cover classes (particularly northwest and north-central India). Our current study builds upon this work by evaluating possible changes in near-surface energy fluxes and regional atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture on the Indian sub-continent using a regional atmospheric model RAMS. We investigate three separate land- use scenarios: Scenario 1, with a potential (pre-agricultural) land cover, Scenario 2: the potential land-cover overlain by cropland and Scenario 3: potential land-cover overlain by cropland and irrigated area. We will assess the impact of agricultural land-cover conversion and intensive irrigation on water and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere and how these flux changes may affect regional weather patterns. The simulation period covers July 16-20, 2002 which allow us to assess potential impacts of land-cover changes on the onset of the Indian Monsoon.

Distribution and Potential Impact of Feral Cotton on the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Transgenic Bt cotton with insecticidal properties presents a potential solution to the bollworm infestation in Tanzania. However, concerns associated with transgenic crops viz.; transgene flow to wild and feral relatives, increased potential for resistance evolution, need to be addressed prior to adoption of any transgenic crop.

Preliminary Screening Assessment of the Potential Impact of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry on Wildlife

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve; Vives i Batlle, Jordi [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium)

2014-07-01

The activities of the phosphate industry may lead to enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We here perform a preliminary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of the activities of the phosphate industry (phosphate ore mining, phosphate fertilizer factories, phosphate export platforms). We evaluated the environmental impact of 5 phosphate fertilizer plants (located in Belgium, Spain, Syria, Egypt, Brazil) and one phosphate-mine and phosphate-export platforms in the harbour(both located in Syria). These sites were selected because of the enhanced concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in the surrounding environments. The ERICA non-human biota assessment tool was used to predict radiation dose rates to the reference organisms and associated risks. Reference organisms were those assigned as default by the ERICA Tool. Potential impact is expressed as a risk quotient (RQ) based on a radiation screening value of 10 μGy h{sup -1}. If RQ ≤ 1, the environment is unlikely at risk and further radiological assessment is deemed not to be required. For all the cases assessed, RQ exceeded 1 for at least one of the reference organisms. {sup 226}Ra or {sup 210}Po were generally the highest contributors to the dose. The aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of the phosphate fertilizer plants in Tessenderlo (Belgium), Huelva (Spain), Goias (Brazil) and the terrestrial environment around the phosphate mine in Palmyra (Syria) are the ecosystems predicted most at risk. (authors)

What practice can learn from theory: The potential impact of disposition decision factors on organisational performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Badenhorst

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Effective disposition decisions can lead to a number of value-adding benefits including economic, environmental and marketing benefits. Despite this, many organisations are not aware of the importance of disposition decisions and the impact they can have on organisational performance. Objectives: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential impact of disposition decision factors on organisational performance. Method: This study made use of a qualitative content analysis method on previously published scientific articles on reverse logistics. The sample included 67 published scientific articles between 2006 and 2016. ATLAS.ti software was used to assist with the data analysis process. Findings: The findings showed a number of factors for disposition decision-making resulting in a number of value-adding benefits, which can improve organisational performance. From the findings, a conceptual framework was developed linking the disposition decision factors with the value-adding benefits and areas of organisational performance improvements. Conclusion: The framework developed in this article contributes to new insights and can help organisations to identify different performance improvement areas associated with certain disposition decision factors.

Heat impact on schoolchildren in Cameroon, Africa: potential health threat from climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tord Kjellstrom

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Health impacts related to climate change are potentially an increasing problem in Cameroon, especially during hot seasons when there are no means for protective and adaptive actions. Objective: To describe environmental conditions in schools and to evaluate the impact of heat on schoolchildren's health during school days in the Cameroon cities of Yaoundé and Douala. Methods: Schoolchildren (N=285 aged 12–16 years from public secondary schools completed a questionnaire about their background, general symptoms, and hot feelings in a cross-sectional study. In Yaoundé, 50 schoolchildren were individually interviewed during school days about hourly symptoms (fatigue, headache, and feeling very hot and performance. Lascar dataloggers were used to measure indoor classroom temperatures and humidity. Results: There was a significant correlation between daily indoor temperature and the percentages of schoolchildren who felt very hot, had fatigue, and headaches in Yaoundé. A high proportion of schoolchildren felt very hot (48%, had fatigue (76%, and headaches (38% in Yaoundé. Prevalences (% were higher among girls than boys for headaches (58 vs 39, feeling ‘very hot overall’ (37 vs 21, and ‘very hot in head’ (21 vs 18. Up to 62% were absentminded and 45% had slow writing speed. High indoor temperatures of 32.5°C in Yaoundé and 36.6°C in Douala were observed in school. Conclusions: Headache, fatigue, and feeling very hot associated with high indoor air temperature were observed among schoolchildren in the present study. Longitudinal data in schools are needed to confirm these results. School environmental conditions should be improved in order to enhance learning.

Pipelines and salmon in northern British Columbia : potential impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levy, D.A.

2009-10-01

Four pipeline projects have been proposed for northern British Columbia that could threaten the health of the Fraser, Skeena, and Kitimat watersheds. The pipelines will expose salmon to risks on several fronts. Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline project has generated the most concern for a several reasons, including the risks to salmon and freshwater habitat from pipeline failures, notably leaks or ruptures. This paper reviewed the salmon resources in affected watersheds; salmon and BC's economy; salmon diversity and abundance; impacts on fish from pipeline construction, operations and failures; behaviours of different petroleum products in fresh water; hydrocarbon toxicity; history of pipeline failures; sabotage and natural disasters; and Canadian case studies. Salmon are already experiencing stresses from forestry, hydro-electricity, transportation, agriculture, mining, mountain pine beetle, climate change and coalbed methane development. Their cumulative impact will dictate the long-term health and viability of salmon. It was concluded that if all of the proposed pipelines were built, they would extend over 4,000 km, crossing more than 1,000 rivers and streams in some of Canada's most productive salmon habitat. During construction, pipeline stream crossings are vulnerable to increased sedimentation, which can degrade salmon habitat. In the event of a spill, the condensate and oil sands products carried in the pipelines are highly toxic to salmon, with serious and lasting adverse impacts on salmon and their habitat. Any decision to approve such a pipeline should be made in recognition of these risks. 73 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs., 2 appendices.

Development of a matrix approach to estimate soil clean-up levels for BTEX compounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erbas-White, I.; San Juan, C.

1993-01-01

A draft state-of-the-art matrix approach has been developed for the State of Washington to estimate clean-up levels for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) in deep soils based on an endangerment approach to groundwater. Derived soil clean-up levels are estimated using a combination of two computer models, MULTIMED and VLEACH. The matrix uses a simple scoring system that is used to assign a score at a given site based on the parameters such as depth to groundwater, mean annual precipitation, type of soil, distance to potential groundwater receptor and the volume of contaminated soil. The total score is then used to obtain a soil clean-up level from a table. The general approach used involves the utilization of computer models to back-calculate soil contaminant levels in the vadose zone that would create that particular contaminant concentration in groundwater at a given receptor. This usually takes a few iterations of trial runs to estimate the clean-up levels since the models use the soil clean-up levels as ''input'' and the groundwater levels as ''output.'' The selected contaminant levels in groundwater are Model Toxic control Act (MTCA) values used in the State of Washington

Natural plant sugar sources of Anopheles mosquitoes strongly impact malaria transmission potential.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weidong Gu

Full Text Available An improved knowledge of mosquito life history could strengthen malaria vector control efforts that primarily focus on killing mosquitoes indoors using insecticide treated nets and indoor residual spraying. Natural sugar sources, usually floral nectars of plants, are a primary energy resource for adult mosquitoes but their role in regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations is unclear. To determine how the sugar availability impacts Anopheles sergentii populations, mark-release-recapture studies were conducted in two oases in Israel with either absence or presence of the local primary sugar source, flowering Acacia raddiana trees. Compared with population estimates from the sugar-rich oasis, An. sergentii in the sugar-poor oasis showed smaller population size (37,494 vs. 85,595, lower survival rates (0.72 vs. 0.93, and prolonged gonotrophic cycles (3.33 vs. 2.36 days. The estimated number of females older than the extrinsic incubation period of malaria (10 days in the sugar rich site was 4 times greater than in the sugar poor site. Sugar feeding detected in mosquito guts in the sugar-rich site was significantly higher (73% than in the sugar-poor site (48%. In contrast, plant tissue feeding (poor quality sugar source in the sugar-rich habitat was much less (0.3% than in the sugar-poor site (30%. More important, the estimated vectorial capacity, a standard measure of malaria transmission potential, was more than 250-fold higher in the sugar-rich oasis than that in the sugar-poor site. Our results convincingly show that the availability of sugar sources in the local environment is a major determinant regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations and their vector potential, suggesting that control interventions targeting sugar-feeding mosquitoes pose a promising tactic for combating transmission of malaria parasites and other pathogens.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Impact of the strong electromagnetic field on the QCD effective potential for homogeneous Abelian gluon field configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galilo, Bogdan V.; Nedelko, Sergei N.

2011-01-01

The one-loop quark contribution to the QCD effective potential for the homogeneous Abelian gluon field in the presence of an external strong electromagnetic field is evaluated. The structure of extrema of the potential as a function of the angles between chromoelectric, chromomagnetic, and electromagnetic fields is analyzed. In this setup, the electromagnetic field is considered as an external one while the gluon field represents domain structured nonperturbative gluon configurations related to the QCD vacuum in the confinement phase. Two particularly interesting gluon configurations, (anti-)self-dual and crossed orthogonal chromomagnetic and chromoelectric fields, are discussed specifically. Within this simplified framework it is shown that the strong electromagnetic fields can play a catalyzing role for a deconfinement transition. At the qualitative level, the present consideration can be seen as a highly simplified study of an impact of the electromagnetic fields generated in relativistic heavy ion collisions on the strongly interacting hadronic matter.

European Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive: Potential Impacts on European Systemic Important Financial Institutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clements Akinsoyinu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The great recession heralded in by the subprime mortgage crisis, took a dramatic turn for worse as a result of collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008. The crisis deemed to be the most devastating after the Great Depression of 1929, had a debilitating effect on world economies, developing and advanced alike.  The extent of its devastation which  is still being felt in Europe and many parts of the globe reminds us the interconnectedness of financial institutions, particularly those tagged TBTF or SIFIs. Policy makers scrambled to curtail the ugly effect of the crisis by rescuing the SIFIs within their jurisdiction largely through bailout mechanism and provision of implicit guarantee for the debts of failing/failed institutions. As soon as the tide is stemmed, they cast their gaze on new crisis resolution and recovery measures that could rein in systemic risks associated with SIFIs, prevent future crises and reduce the concomitant moral hazards in the current resolution measures. This paper assesses ex ante the potential impact of implementing the new Banking recovery and resolution directives on Europe’s TBTF banksThe great recession heralded in by the subprime mortgage crisis, took a dramatic turn for worse as a result of collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008. The crisis deemed to be the most devastating after the Great Depression of 1929, had a debilitating effect on world economies, developing and advanced alike.  The extent of its devastation which  is still being felt in Europe and many parts of the globe reminds us the interconnectedness of financial institutions, particularly those tagged TBTF or SIFIs. Policy makers scrambled to curtail the ugly effect of the crisis by rescuing the SIFIs within their jurisdiction largely through bailout mechanism and provision of implicit guarantee for the debts of failing/failed institutions. As soon as the tide is stemmed, they cast their gaze on new crisis

Do transition towns have the potential to promote health and well-being? A health impact assessment of a transition town initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, J; Nichols, A; Henry, T

2012-11-01

Climate change and energy vulnerability present significant challenges for the development and sustainability of our communities. The adverse effects will most likely impact on those already experiencing poverty, as energy and food costs will rise, thus increasing inequalities in health. Transition town initiatives seek to build cohesive sustainable communities to prepare for a future with limited oil and a changing climate. Increasingly, public health practitioners are interested in the role of transition towns as a community development initiative, and their potential to support the wider public health agenda. Health impact assessment (HIA) is an evidence-based process that aims to predict the positive and negative impacts of a strategy, proposal or development. The HIA process provides an opportunity to promote sustainable communities by ensuring that new strategies and developments are considered in the context of their contribution to the health and well-being of local populations. The aim of this study was to use an HIA to examine the potential health and well-being benefits of two related transition town initiatives. A rapid HIA to consider the potential lifestyle changes and health and well-being impacts of Transition Together/Transition Streets (TT/TS) projects. An HIA template was used to assess key documents related to the TT/TS initiatives and those related to the characteristics of the community. Additionally, meetings with 12 key informants (four involved in TT/TS and eight purposively selected for their local knowledge) were held using the HIA template to focus the discussion. The findings highlight the associated lifestyle changes such as increased physical activity and healthy eating, and possible social and well-being benefits of engagement in such an initiative. Engagement may be limited to those already concerned about environmental issues. This paper illustrates the important links between transition towns and the wider public health agenda

Environmental impact assessment of NPP decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinca, R.

2009-01-01

In this presentation the following potential impacts of decommissioning of NPP are discussed: - Impacts on population; Impacts on natural environment; Land impacts; Impacts on urban complex and land utilisation; Possible impacts on area as a result of failure.

Studying wind energy/bird interactions: a guidance document. Metrics and methods for determining or monitoring potential impacts on birds at existing and proposed wind energy sites

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, R.; Morrison, M.; Sinclair, K.; Strickland, D.; Davis, H.; Kendall, W.

1999-01-01

In the 1980s little was known about the potential environmental effects associated with large scale wind energy development. Although wind turbines have been used in farming and remote location applications throughout this country for centuries, impacts on birds resulting from these dispersed turbines had not been reported. Thus early wind energy developments were planned, permitted, constructed, and operated with little consideration for the potential effects on birds. In the ensuing years wind plant impacts on birds became a source of concern among a number of stakeholder groups. Based on the studies that have been done to date, significant levels of bird fatalities have been identified at only one major commercial wind energy development in the United States. Research on wind energy/bird interactions has spanned such a wide variety of protocols and vastly different levels of study effort that it is difficult to make comparisons among study findings. As a result there continues to be interest, confusion, and concern over wind energy development's potential impacts on birds. Some hypothesize that technology changes, such as less dense wind farms with larger, slower-moving turbines, will decrease the number of bird fatalities from wind turbines. Others hypothesize that, because the tip speed may be the same or faster, new turbines will not result in decreased bird fatalities but may actually increase bird impacts. Statistically significant data sets from scientifically rigorous studies will be required before either hypothesis can be tested.

A survey of endangered waterbirds on Maui and Oahu and assessment of potential impacts to waterbirds from the proposed Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission corridor. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, K.; Woodside, D.; Bruegmann, M. [Fish and Wildlife Service, Honolulu, HI (United States). Pacific Islands Office

1994-08-01

A survey of endangered waterbirds on Maui and Oahu was conducted during August and September 1993 to identify potential waterbird habitats within the general area of the proposed Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission corridor and to assess the potential impacts to endangered waterbird of installing and operating a high voltage transmission line from the Island of Hawaii to the islands of Oahu and Maui. Annual waterbird survey information and other literature containing information on specific wetland sites were summarized. Literature describing impacts of overhead transmission lines on birds was used to evaluate potential impacts of the proposed project on endangered waterbirds, resident wading birds, and migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. On Oahu, five wetland habitats supporting endangered Hawaiian waterbirds were identified within 2.5 miles of the proposed transmission line corridor. On Maui, three wetland habitats supporting endangered Hawaiian waterbirds were identified within the general area of the proposed transmission line corridor. Several of the wetlands identified on Oahu and Maui also supported resident wading birds and migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. Endangered waterbirds, resident wading birds, and migratory birds may collide with the proposed transmission lines wires. The frequency and numbers of bird collisions is expected to be greater on Oahu than on Maui because more wetland habitat exists and greater numbers of birds occur in the project area on Oahu. In addition, the endangered Hawaiian goose and the endangered Hawaiian petrel may be impacted by the proposed segment of the Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission line on Maui.

Entrepreneurial potential in less innovative regions: the impact of social and cultural environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco J. García-Rodríguez

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role that the sociocultural, family and university environment play in the entrepreneurial intention of young people in a peripheral and less innovative region. Design/methodology/approach - The authors adopted the perspective of the theory of planned behavior and made an empirical study with a sample of 1,064 Spanish university students who voluntarily participated in the GUESSS Project answering an online questionnaire. A methodology based on structural equations was used employing the partial least squares structural equation modeling estimation technique. Findings - The results show that the university environment directly influences attitude, self-confidence and motivation, and indirectly the students’ entrepreneurial intention. The social context also exerts a weak direct influence on the perceived attitudes or desires toward the option to start a business and indirectly on the intention. Originality/value - The main contribution of this paper seems to confirm what previous literature highlighted in the terms of regional specificities on the link between innovation systems, the impact of entrepreneurial potential and economic development. In this sense, the university context can play an important role in generating improvements in the entrepreneurial intention’s antecedents of young people with greater potential for innovation in peripheral regions. Therefore, when it comes to defining policies to improve entrepreneurship in these regions, it seems that the establishment of entrepreneurship education and motivation programs in universities is a very effective tool to increase perceived attitude toward the option to start a new business.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE PORT OF SALVADOR IMPROVEMENTS ON THE BRAZILIAN COTTON INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Costa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A spatial price equilibrium model of the international cotton sector was used to analyze the impacts of the Port of Salvador improvements on the Brazilian cotton industry and world cotton trade. The port of Salvador is undergoing relevant improvements in its facilities and physical structure. As a result of these improvements, the port of Salvador is expected to become more competitive and attract ocean shipping companies which are willing to export products directly to Asian importing markets. Scenarios with different reduction in export cost for the port of Salvador were examined. For all scenarios, the new direct ocean shipping lines were found to be important for the cotton exporters in Brazil, especially for the producers in the state of Bahia. In addition, results suggested that the state of Bahia would have the potential of becoming the largest cotton exporting state in Brazil.

Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

2005-01-01

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

Analysis of the Lifecycle Impacts and Potential for Avoided Impacts Associated with Single Family Homes

Science.gov (United States)

Learn how recovering construction and demolition materials from single-family homes and reusing them in building and road construction and other applications helps offset the environmental impacts associated with single-family homes.

Potential impacts of shipping noise on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins and implications for regulation and mitigation: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Songhai; Liu, Mingming; Dong, Lijun; Dong, Jianchen; Wang, Ding

2018-01-09

Shipping noise is a widespread and relatively loud sound source among human-induced underwater sounds. The impacts of shipping noise are of special concern for Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis), as they inhabit shallow and nearshore habitats and are highly dependent on sound for survival. This study synthesizes our current understanding of the potential impacts of shipping noise on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins combined with knowledge on sound production and hearing of these animals and the impacts of noise on other whales and dolphins. For further protection and management of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins and their habitats, shipping noise should be regulated and mitigated to modify sound from ships, to reduce overall noise levels, and to set more marine protected areas (MPAs) covering most Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin habitats with seasonal and geographical restrictions to avoid ensonification of shipping noise. The emphasis for future research should be on obtaining more baseline information about the population distribution, sound production, hearing capabilities at the population level, behavior, and stress hormones of the humpback dolphins under different noise conditions or under different noise-producing activities, and/or in high-noise areas compared with relatively quiet areas, and the noise characteristics of ships of different types, sizes, and speeds. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Impact of China’s Rail Network Expansions on Local Accessibility: A Market Potential Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjie Wu

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a market potential approach to examine the evolution of the rail transport network of China and its spatial distributional impacts on local accessibility, with a particular focus on high-speed rail improvements. Accessibility is measured by using a “market potential” function that was derived from the general equilibrium model of the economic geography literature, and is empirically calculated based on Geographical Information System (GIS techniques. A key finding, albeit from a highly stylized model, is that rail improvements may help raise territorial polarizing patterns across counties. The results point to the profound implications of railroad network expansion on the accessibility dynamics in periphery regions relative to core regions.

Reaching their potential: Perceived impact of a collaborative academic-clinical partnership programme for early career nurses in New Zealand.

Science.gov (United States)

McKillop, Ann; Doughty, Lesley; Atherfold, Cheryl; Shaw, Kathy

2016-01-01

The dynamic nature of healthcare ensures that early career nurses enter an uncertain and complex world of practice and consequently require support to develop their practice, build confidence and reach their potential. The New Zealand Nurse Entry to Practice programme for registered nurses in their first year of practice has been operating since 2005 to enable safe and confident practice, improve the quality of care, and positively impact on recruitment and retention. This academic and clinical programme was offered as a partnership between a university and a clinical provider with postgraduate academic credits gained. The aim of this study was to explore the perceived impact of postgraduate university education for early career nurses in one regional health area of New Zealand. Participants were registered nurses who had completed the early career nurse programme and their clinical preceptors. The research was conducted via an online survey of 248 nurses and three focus groups to explore how the programme was experienced and its impact on knowledge and practice. Early career nurses and their preceptors found that the programme enables improved knowledge and skills of patient assessment, application of critical thinking to clinical practice, perceived improvement in patient care delivery and outcomes, enhanced interprofessional communication and knowledge sharing, and had a positive impact on professional awareness and career planning. This clinical-academic partnership positively impacted on the clinical practice and transition experience of early career nurses and was closely aligned to an organization's strategic plan for nursing workforce development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin: A binational approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quinn, F.H.; Mortsch, L.D.

1997-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes environment are serious and complex. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin is home to 42.5 million US and Canadian citizens and is the industrial and commercial heartland of both nations. The region is rich in human and natural resources, with diverse economic activities and substantial infrastructure which would be affected by major shifts in climate. For example, water level changes could affect wetland distribution and functioning; reductions in streamflow would alter assimilative capacities while warmer water temperatures would influence spring and fall turnover and incidence of anoxia. A binational program has been initiated to conduct interdisciplinary, integrated impact assessments for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin. The goal of this program is to undertake interdisciplinary, integrated studies to improve the understanding of the complex interactions between climate, the environment, and socioeconomic systems in order to develop informed regional adaptation responses

Potential impacts of crud deposits on fuel rod behaviour on high powered PWR fuel rods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, W.; Comstock, R.J.

1999-01-01

Fuel assemblies operating with significant sub-cooled boiling are subject to deposition of surface deposits commonly referred to as crud. This crud can potentially cause concentration of chemical species within the deposits which can be detrimental to cladding performance in PWRs. In addition, these deposits on the surface of the cladding can result in power anomalies and erroneous reporting of fuel rod oxide thickness which can substantially hamper corrosion and core performance modeling efforts. Data is presented which illustrates the importance of accounting for the presence of crud on fuel cladding surfaces. Several methods used to correct for this phenomenon when collecting and analyzing zirconium alloy field oxide thickness measurements are described. Various observations related to crud characteristics and its impact on fuel rod performance are also addressed. (author)

Environmental Assessment for Potential Impacts of Ocean CO2 Storage on Marine Biogeochemical Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, N.; Tsurushima, N.; Suzumura, M.; Shibamoto, Y.; Harada, K.

2008-12-01

Ocean CO2 storage that actively utilizes the ocean potential to dissolve extremely large amounts of CO2 is a useful option with the intent of diminishing atmospheric CO2 concentration. CO2 storage into sub-seabed geological formations is also considered as the option which has been already put to practical reconnaissance in some projects. Direct release of CO2 in the ocean storage and potential CO2 leakage from geological formations into the bottom water can alter carbonate system as well as pH of seawater. It is essential to examine to what direction and extent chemistry change of seawater induced by CO2 can affect the marine environments. Previous studies have shown direct and acute effects by increasing CO2 concentrations on physiology of marine organisms. It is also a serious concern that chemistry change can affect the rates of chemical, biochemical and microbial processes in seawater resulting in significant influences on marine biogeochemical cycles of the bioelements including carbon, nutrients and trace metals. We, AIST, have conducted a series of basic researches to assess the potential impacts of ocean CO2 storage on marine biogeochemical processes including CaCO3 dissolution, and bacterial and enzymatic decomposition of organic matter. By laboratory experiments using a special high pressure apparatus, the improved empirical equation was obtained for CaCO3 dissolution rate in the high CO2 concentrations. Based on the experimentally obtained kinetics with a numerical simulation for a practical scenario of oceanic CO2 sequestration where 50 Mton CO2 per year is continuously injected to 1,000-2,500 m depth within 100 x 333 km area for 30 years, we could illustrate precise 3-D maps for the predicted distributions of the saturation depth of CaCO3, in situ Ω value and CaCO3 dissolution rate in the western North Pacific. The result showed no significant change in the bathypelagic CaCO3 flux due to chemistry change induced by ocean CO2 sequestration. Both

Potential impact of soil microbial heterogeneity on the persistence of hydrocarbons in contaminated subsurface soils.

Science.gov (United States)

Aleer, Sam; Adetutu, Eric M; Weber, John; Ball, Andrew S; Juhasz, Albert L

2014-04-01

In situ bioremediation is potentially a cost effective treatment strategy for subsurface soils contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons, however, limited information is available regarding the impact of soil spatial heterogeneity on bioremediation efficacy. In this study, we assessed issues associated with hydrocarbon biodegradation and soil spatial heterogeneity (samples designated as FTF 1, 5 and 8) from a site in which in situ bioremediation was proposed for hydrocarbon removal. Test pit activities showed similarities in FTF soil profiles with elevated hydrocarbon concentrations detected in all soils at 2 m below ground surface. However, PCR-DGGE-based cluster analysis showed that the bacterial community in FTF 5 (at 2 m) was substantially different (53% dissimilar) and 2-3 fold more diverse than communities in FTF 1 and 8 (with 80% similarity). When hydrocarbon degrading potential was assessed, differences were observed in the extent of (14)C-benzene mineralisation under aerobic conditions with FTF 5 exhibiting the highest hydrocarbon removal potential compared to FTF 1 and 8. Further analysis indicated that the FTF 5 microbial community was substantially different from other FTF samples and dominated by putative hydrocarbon degraders belonging to Pseudomonads, Xanthomonads and Enterobacteria. However, hydrocarbon removal in FTF 5 under anaerobic conditions with nitrate and sulphate electron acceptors was limited suggesting that aerobic conditions were crucial for hydrocarbon removal. This study highlights the importance of assessing available microbial capacity prior to bioremediation and shows that the site's spatial heterogeneity can adversely affect the success of in situ bioremediation unless area-specific optimizations are performed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LNG : its potential impact on North American markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlesinger, B.

2003-01-01

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to play a greater role in North American gas supplies and markets due to the decrease in conventional natural gas production in North America accompanied by an increase in demand for energy. It is expected that the overall share of the LNG gas market will rise from about 1.4 per cent in 2002 to more than 5 per cent by 2020, and potentially up to 15 per cent by that year. The construction of at least 15 new LNG receiving terminals has been proposed for location in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In addition, El Paso has proposed a novel offshore LNG receiving concept involving offshore gas pipelines and on-board-ship regasification. As trading of LNG increases in the Atlantic, markets in eastern United States and Canada will benefit from improved gas supplies, but pricing patterns are expected to change. Basis differentials along the Atlantic coastline will probably diminish, potentially reducing the value of Sable Island gas and the pipeline system that runs north to south along the eastern coast of North America. It was noted that Middle Eastern suppliers of LNG will play an important potential role in North American markets. 19 figs

Potential water resource impacts of hydraulic fracturing from unconventional oil production in the Bakken shale.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Namita; Chilkoor, Govinda; Wilder, Joseph; Gadhamshetty, Venkataramana; Stone, James J

2017-01-01

Modern drilling techniques, notably horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, have enabled unconventional oil production (UOP) from the previously inaccessible Bakken Shale Formation located throughout Montana, North Dakota (ND) and the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The majority of UOP from the Bakken shale occurs in ND, strengthening its oil industry and businesses, job market, and its gross domestic product. However, similar to UOP from other low-permeability shales, UOP from the Bakken shale can result in environmental and human health effects. For example, UOP from the ND Bakken shale generates a voluminous amount of saline wastewater including produced and flowback water that are characterized by unusual levels of total dissolved solids (350 g/L) and elevated levels of toxic and radioactive substances. Currently, 95% of the saline wastewater is piped or trucked onsite prior to disposal into Class II injection wells. Oil and gas wastewater (OGW) spills that occur during transport to injection sites can potentially result in drinking water resource contamination. This study presents a critical review of potential water resource impacts due to deterministic (freshwater withdrawals and produced water management) and probabilistic events (spills due to leaking pipelines and truck accidents) related to UOP from the Bakken shale in ND. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of inorganic contaminants on microalgae productivity and bioremediation potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Torres, Eric M; Hess, Derek; McNeil, Brian T; Guy, Tessa; Quinn, Jason C

2017-05-01

As underdeveloped nations continue to industrialize and world population continues to increase, the need for energy, natural resources, and goods will lead to ever increasing inorganic contaminants, such as heavy metals, in various waste streams that can have damaging effects on plant life, wildlife, and human health. This work is focused on the evaluation of the potential of Nannochloropsis salina to be integrated with contaminated water sources for the concurrent production of a biofuel feedstock while providing an environmental service through bioremediation. Individual contaminants (As, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, Hg, Se, and Zn) at various concentrations ranging from a low concentration (1X) to higher concentrations (10X, and 40X) found in contaminated systems (mine tailings, wastewater treatment plants, produced water) were introduced into growth media. Biological growth experimentation was performed in triplicate at the various contaminant concentrations and at 3 different light intensities. Results show that baseline concentrations of each contaminant slightly decreased biomass growth to between 89% and 99% of the control with the exception of Ni which dramatically reduced growth. Increased contaminant concentrations resulted in progressively lower growth rates for all contaminants tested. Lipid analysis shows most baseline contaminant concentrations slightly decrease or have minimal effects on lipid content at all light levels. Trace contaminant analysis on the biomass showed Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, and Zn were sorbed by the microalgae with minimal contaminants remaining in the growth media illustrating the effectiveness of microalgae to bioremediate these contaminants when levels are sufficiently low to not detrimentally impact productivity. The microalgae biomass was less efficient at sorption of As, Cr, Ni, and Se. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (Cl-VOCs) in environment - sources, potential human health impacts, and current remediation technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Binbin; Lei, Chao; Wei, Chaohai; Zeng, Guangming

2014-10-01

Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (Cl-VOCs), including polychloromethanes, polychloroethanes and polychloroethylenes, are widely used as solvents, degreasing agents and a variety of commercial products. These compounds belong to a group of ubiquitous contaminants that can be found in contaminated soil, air and any kind of fluvial mediums such as groundwater, rivers and lakes. This review presents a summary of the research concerning the production levels and sources of Cl-VOCs, their potential impacts on human health as well as state-of-the-art remediation technologies. Important sources of Cl-VOCs principally include the emissions from industrial processes, the consumption of Cl-VOC-containing products, the disinfection process, as well as improper storage and disposal methods. Human exposure to Cl-VOCs can occur through different routes, including ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact. The toxicological impacts of these compounds have been carefully assessed, and the results demonstrate the potential associations of cancer incidence with exposure to Cl-VOCs. Most Cl-VOCs thus have been listed as priority pollutants by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) of China, Environmental Protection Agency of the U.S. (U.S. EPA) and European Commission (EC), and are under close monitor and strict control. Yet, more efforts will be put into the epidemiological studies for the risk of human exposure to Cl-VOCs and the exposure level measurements in contaminated sites in the future. State-of-the-art remediation technologies for Cl-VOCs employ non-destructive methods and destructive methods (e.g. thermal incineration, phytoremediation, biodegradation, advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) and reductive dechlorination), whose advantages, drawbacks and future developments are thoroughly discussed in the later sections. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilbert, David W

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

2009-03-01

Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

2011-01-01

Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

Energy recovery potential and life cycle impact assessment of municipal solid waste management technologies in Asian countries using ELP model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pandyaswargo, Andante Hadi; Onoda, Hiroshi; Nagata, Katsuya [Waseda Univ., Saitama (Japan). Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering

2012-11-01

Natural resource scarcity and the effects of environmental destruction have pushed societies to use and reuse resources more efficiently. Waste should no longer be seen as a burden but rather as another source of material such as energy fuel. This study analyzes the potential of three waste management technologies - incineration with energy recovery, composting, and sanitary landfill gas collection - as ways to recover energy and material from municipal solid waste. The study applies the environmental load point (ELP) method and utilizes municipal waste characteristics and composition from India, Indonesia, and China as case studies. The ELP methodology employs integrated weighting in the quantification process to get a one-unit result. This study particularly uses analytic hierarchical process questionnaires to get the weighting value of the nine impact categories: energy depletion, global warming, ozone depletion, resource consumption, ecosystem influence, water pollution, waste disposal, air pollution, and acid rain. The results show that the scenario which includes composting organic waste and sanitary landfill with gas collection for energy recovery has medium environmental impact and the highest practicability. The optimum material and energy potential is from the Chinese case study in which 254 tonnes of compost fertilizer and 60 MWh of electricity is the estimated output for every 1,000 tonnes of waste treated. (orig.)

Multiscale Simulation of Breaking Wave Impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindberg, Ole

compare reasonably well. The incompressible and inviscid ALE-WLS model is coupled with the potential flow model of Engsig-Karup et al. [2009], to perform multiscale calculation of breaking wave impacts on a vertical breakwater. The potential flow model provides accurate calculation of the wave...... with a potential flow model to provide multiscale calculation of forces from breaking wave impacts on structures....

Heightening Awareness for Graduate Students of the Potential Impacts of Nanomaterials on Human Health and the Environment Using a Theoretical-Practical Approach

Science.gov (United States)

de Melo, Nathalie F. S.; Fraceto, Leonardo F.; Grillo, Renato

2017-01-01

Rapid growth in nanoscience and nanotechnology in recent years has been accompanied by studies of the toxicity and potential impacts of nanomaterials on human health and the environment, but less has been done concerning education in this area. There is therefore a need for courses that address this theme at universities worldwide, in order to…

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower

Graduate radiographers' expectations for role development - The potential impact of misalignment of expectation and valence on staff retention and service provision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williamson, Keren; Mundy, Lynn A.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the role development expectations of graduate radiographers with a view to predicting the potential impact of a misalignment of these expectations and valence on service delivery and staff retention. A final year cohort of radiography students completed a questionnaire designed to explore topics associated with role development opportunities. Method: Structured questionnaires, in the Likert scale format, utilised 20 attitude questions constructed to elicit information in relation to 3 main themes of investigation; expectation, valence and knowledge. Results: All participants (n = 37) stated an expectation for role development opportunities with 97.3% (n = 36) indicating that these expectations would be realised within 5 years of graduation and 75.7% (n = 28) within 2 years of graduation. A significant correlation between expectation for role development and job satisfaction was seen (p < 0.05). 81.1% (n = 30) of participants stated turnover intentions in order to meet their expectations. Conclusion: There is an expectation for role development opportunities for new graduates with a valence noted of the intrinsic reward of meeting these expectations. Expectation and valence are seen to be intrinsically linked with job satisfaction suggesting that misalignment of these would have a potentially negative impact on motivation and retention of the future radiography workforce demonstrating a positive correlation with withdrawal behaviours, including turnover intentions. In a relatively small professional group such as radiography the phenomenon of group cohesion may be strong suggesting that withdrawal behaviours may manifest as 'resignation in post', impacting on the quality of care and service provision for patients.

High-level nuclear waste transport and storage assessment of potential impacts on tourism in the Las Vegas area. Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1985-12-01

The literature review and empirical analyses presented in this report were undertaken, for the most part, between August and October 1983. They are not comprehensive. No primary data were gathered, nor were any formal surveys conducted. Additionally, because construction of a repository at Yucca Mountain, if that site is selected for a repository, is not scheduled to begin until 1993, engineering design and planned physical appearance of the repository are very preliminary. Therefore, specific design features or visual appearance were not addressed in the analyses. Finally, because actual transportation routes have not been designated, impacts on tourism generated specifically by transportation activities are not considered separately. Chapter 2 briefly discusses possible means by which a repository could impact tourism in the Las Vegas area. Chapter 3 presents a review of previous research on alternative methods for predicting the response of people to potential hazards. A review of several published studies where these methods have been applied to facilities and activities associated with radioactive materials is included in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains five case studies of tourism impacts associated with past events that were perceived by the public to represent safety hazards. These perceptions of safety hazards were evidenced by news media coverage. These case studies were conducted specifically for this report. Conclusions of this preliminary analysis regarding the potential impact on tourism in the Las Vegas area of a repository at Yucca Mountain are in Chapter 5. Recommendations for further research are contained in Chapter 6.

High-level nuclear waste transport and storage assessment of potential impacts on tourism in the Las Vegas area. Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-12-01

The literature review and empirical analyses presented in this report were undertaken, for the most part, between August and October 1983. They are not comprehensive. No primary data were gathered, nor were any formal surveys conducted. Additionally, because construction of a repository at Yucca Mountain, if that site is selected for a repository, is not scheduled to begin until 1993, engineering design and planned physical appearance of the repository are very preliminary. Therefore, specific design features or visual appearance were not addressed in the analyses. Finally, because actual transportation routes have not been designated, impacts on tourism generated specifically by transportation activities are not considered separately. Chapter 2 briefly discusses possible means by which a repository could impact tourism in the Las Vegas area. Chapter 3 presents a review of previous research on alternative methods for predicting the response of people to potential hazards. A review of several published studies where these methods have been applied to facilities and activities associated with radioactive materials is included in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains five case studies of tourism impacts associated with past events that were perceived by the public to represent safety hazards. These perceptions of safety hazards were evidenced by news media coverage. These case studies were conducted specifically for this report. Conclusions of this preliminary analysis regarding the potential impact on tourism in the Las Vegas area of a repository at Yucca Mountain are in Chapter 5. Recommendations for further research are contained in Chapter 6

The potential impact of developments in electronic technology on the future conduct of air warfare, volume 3

Science.gov (United States)

1986-12-01

Advances in microelectronics have resulted in circuit densities many orders of magnitude greater than in current usage, making possible higher speed circuitry and greater storage capacity. RF techniques are also leading to monolithic microwave integrated circuits and microstrip antennas with corresponding reductions in size and weight. In addition, rapid advances are taking place in computer architecture and software that will provide improved information processing and control. This, coupled with progress in artificial intelligence and man-machine interface, offers promise of greatly improved battle management in the cockpit. The scale of changes is such that the nature of air warfare should be significantly affected over the next twenty years. This study examined the potential of electronic technology and potential benefits such as improvements in information processing, reduction in size and weight, increased reliability and maintainability; determined the applicability of such improvements to avionics and command and control systems and such functions as navigation and guidance, communications, surveillance, cockpit engineering and electronic warfare; and examined the impact on air warfare in the time period 2000 to 2010.

Index of Alien Impact: A method for evaluating potential ecological impact of alien plant species

Science.gov (United States)

Alien plant species are stressors to ecosystems and indicators of reduced ecosystem integrity. The magnitude of the stress reflects not only the quantity of aliens present, but also the quality of their interactions with native ecosystems. We develop an Index of Alien Impact (IAI...

A Time-Varying Potential-Based Demand Response Method for Mitigating the Impacts of Wind Power Forecasting Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Ning

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The uncertainty of wind power results in wind power forecasting errors (WPFE which lead to difficulties in formulating dispatching strategies to maintain the power balance. Demand response (DR is a promising tool to balance power by alleviating the impact of WPFE. This paper offers a control method of combining DR and automatic generation control (AGC units to smooth the system’s imbalance, considering the real-time DR potential (DRP and security constraints. A schematic diagram is proposed from the perspective of a dispatching center that manages smart appliances including air conditioner (AC, water heater (WH, electric vehicle (EV loads, and AGC units to maximize the wind accommodation. The presented model schedules the AC, WH, and EV loads without compromising the consumers’ comfort preferences. Meanwhile, the ramp constraint of generators and power flow transmission constraint are considered to guarantee the safety and stability of the power system. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, simulations are performed in an IEEE 24-node system. The results indicate that considerable benefits can be realized by coordinating the DR and AGC units to mitigate the WPFE impacts.

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs volume

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land management objectives (Stockmann et al...

Bioenergy Crop Production in the United States. Potential Quantities, Land Use Changes, and Economic Impacts on the Agricultural Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, Marie E.; Torre Ugarte, D.G. de la; Shapouri, H.; Slinsky, S.P.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy jointly analyzed the economic potential for, and impacts of, large-scale bioenergy crop production in the United States. An agricultural sector model (POLYSYS) was modified to include three potential bioenergy crops (switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow). At farmgate prices of US $2.44/GJ, an estimated 17 million hectares of bioenergy crops, annually yielding 171 million dry Mg of biomass, could potentially be produced at a profit greater than existing agricultural uses for the land. The estimate assumes high productivity management practices are permitted on Conservation Reserve Program lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated to increase 9 to 14 percent above baseline prices and farm income increases annually by US $6.0 billion above baseline. At farmgate prices of US $1.83/GJ, an estimated 7.9 million hectares of bioenergy crops, annually yielding 55 million dry Mg of biomass, could potentially be produced at a profit greater than existing agricultural uses for the land. The estimate assumes management practices intended to achieve high environmental benefits on Conservation Reserve Program lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated to increase 4 to 9 percent above baseline prices and farm income increases annually by US $2.8 billion above baseline

Quantifying the potential impact of measurement error in an investigation of autism spectrum disorder (ASD).

Science.gov (United States)

Heavner, Karyn; Newschaffer, Craig; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Bennett, Deborah; Burstyn, Igor

2014-05-01

The Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI), an ongoing study of a risk-enriched pregnancy cohort, examines genetic and environmental risk factors for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). We simulated the potential effects of both measurement error (ME) in exposures and misclassification of ASD-related phenotype (assessed as Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI) scores) on measures of association generated under this study design. We investigated the impact on the power to detect true associations with exposure and the false positive rate (FPR) for a non-causal correlate of exposure (X2, r=0.7) for continuous AOSI score (linear model) versus dichotomised AOSI (logistic regression) when the sample size (n), degree of ME in exposure, and strength of the expected (true) OR (eOR)) between exposure and AOSI varied. Exposure was a continuous variable in all linear models and dichotomised at one SD above the mean in logistic models. Simulations reveal complex patterns and suggest that: (1) There was attenuation of associations that increased with eOR and ME; (2) The FPR was considerable under many scenarios; and (3) The FPR has a complex dependence on the eOR, ME and model choice, but was greater for logistic models. The findings will stimulate work examining cost-effective strategies to reduce the impact of ME in realistic sample sizes and affirm the importance for EARLI of investment in biological samples that help precisely quantify a wide range of environmental exposures.

Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

2017-12-01

Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

Fostering EFL learners’ autonomy in light of portfolio assessment: Exploring the potential impact of gender

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmood Hashemian

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of portfolio assessment as a process-oriented mechanism on the autonomy of Iranian advanced EFL learners. A particular concern was to examine the potential effect of gender on portfolio assessment by taking the learners’ writing ability into account. The participants were 80 male and female advanced EFL learners to whom the Learner Autonomy Questionnaire (Kashefian, 2002 was administered to check their homogeneity prior to the study in terms of autonomy; a truncated form of a TOEFL test was also given to the participants to assess their language proficiency. The participants were then randomly divided into 4 groups: 2 experimental groups (20 females in class A and 20 males in class B and 2 control groups (20 females in class C and 20 males in class D. The portfolio assessment was integrated into the experimental groups to explore whether and to what extent their autonomy might enhance and also to investigate the possible effect of gender on portfolio assessment in writing ability. The portfolio assessment was based on the classroom portfolio model adopted from Hamp-Lyons and Condon (2000, consisting of 3 procedures: collection, selection, and reflection. In contrast, the control groups received the traditional assessment of writing. The data were analyzed using 2 independent samples t tests, mean, and the effect size. The results showed that the portfolio procedures considerably improved the autonomy of the participants. Also, gender had no impact on portfolio assessment.

Impact of Peat Mining and Restoration on Methane Turnover Potential and Methane-Cycling Microorganisms in a Northern Bog.

Science.gov (United States)

Reumer, Max; Harnisz, Monika; Lee, Hyo Jung; Reim, Andreas; Grunert, Oliver; Putkinen, Anuliina; Fritze, Hannu; Bodelier, Paul L E; Ho, Adrian

2018-02-01

Ombrotrophic peatlands are a recognized global carbon reservoir. Without restoration and peat regrowth, harvested peatlands are dramatically altered, impairing their carbon sink function, with consequences for methane turnover. Previous studies determined the impact of commercial mining on the physicochemical properties of peat and the effects on methane turnover. However, the response of the underlying microbial communities catalyzing methane production and oxidation have so far received little attention. We hypothesize that with the return of Sphagnum spp. postharvest, methane turnover potential and the corresponding microbial communities will converge in a natural and restored peatland. To address our hypothesis, we determined the potential methane production and oxidation rates in natural (as a reference), actively mined, abandoned, and restored peatlands over two consecutive years. In all sites, the methanogenic and methanotrophic population sizes were enumerated using quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays targeting the mcrA and pmoA genes, respectively. Shifts in the community composition were determined using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the mcrA gene and a pmoA -based terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (t-RFLP) analysis, complemented by cloning and sequence analysis of the mmoX gene. Peat mining adversely affected methane turnover potential, but the rates recovered in the restored site. The recovery in potential activity was reflected in the methanogenic and methanotrophic abundances. However, the microbial community composition was altered, being more pronounced for the methanotrophs. Overall, we observed a lag between the recovery of the methanogenic/methanotrophic activity and the return of the corresponding microbial communities, suggesting that a longer duration (>15 years) is needed to reverse mining-induced effects on the methane-cycling microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Ombrotrophic peatlands are a crucial carbon sink, but this environment

Potential Environmental Impacts of Hydrogen-based Transportation and Power Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grieb, Thomas M; Mills, W B; Jacobson, Mark Z; Summers, Karen V; Crossan, A Brook

2010-12-31

Hydrogen (H2) offers advantages as an energy carrier: minimal discharge of pollutants, production from multiple sources, increased thermodynamic efficiencies compared to fossil fuels, and reduced dependence on foreign oil. However, potential impacts from the H2 generation processes, transport and distribution of H2, and releases of H2 into the atmosphere have been proposed. The goal of this project was to analyze the effects of emissions of hydrogen, the six criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases on climate, human health, materials and structures. This project was part of a larger effort by DOE to assess the life-cycle costs and benefits and environmental impacts to inform decisions regarding future hydrogen research. Technical Approach: A modeling approach was developed and used to evaluate the potential environmental effects associated with the conversion of the on-road vehicle fleet from fossil-fuel vehicles to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. GATOR-GCMOM was the primary tool used to predict atmospheric concentrations of gases and aerosols for selected scenarios. This model accounts for all feedbacks among major atmospheric processes based on first principles. The future scenarios and the emission rates selected for this analysis of hydrogen environmental effects are based on the scenarios developed by IPCC. The scenarios selected for the model simulations are a 2000 and 2050 A1B base cases, and a 2050 A1B case with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The hydrogen fuel cell scenario assumed conversion of 90% of fossil-fuel on-road vehicles (FFOV) in developed countries and 45% of FFOVs vehicles in other countries to HFCVs, with the H2 produced by steam-reforming of natural gas (SHFCVs). Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of converting the world's FFOVs to HFCVs, where the H2 is produced by wind-powered electrolysis (WHFCVs). In all scenarios a 3% leakage of H2 consumed was assumed. Two new models were developed that provide the ability to

Potential Impacts of Accelerated Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vail, L. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-05-31

This research project is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research plan in support of developing a risk-informed licensing framework for flood hazards and design standards at proposed new facilities and significance determination tools for evaluating potential deficiencies related to flood protection at operating facilities. The PFHA plan aims to build upon recent advances in deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling of extreme precipitation events to develop regulatory tools and guidance for NRC staff with regard to PFHA for nuclear facilities. The tools and guidance developed under the PFHA plan will support and enhance NRC’s capacity to perform thorough and efficient reviews of license applications and license amendment requests. They will also support risk-informed significance determination of inspection findings, unusual events, and other oversight activities.

Potential Impact of DSM-5 Criteria on Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Maenner, Matthew J.; Rice, Catherine E.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Cunniff, Christopher; Schieve, Laura A.; Carpenter, Laura A.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Kirby, Russell S.; Bakian, Amanda V.; Durkin, Maureen S.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE The DSM-5 contains revised diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the DSM-IV-TR. Potential impacts of the new criteria on ASD prevalence are unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess potential effects of the DSM-5 ASD criteria on ASD prevalence estimation by retrospectively applying the new criteria to population-based surveillance data collected for previous ASD prevalence estimation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, population-based ASD surveillance based on clinician review of coded behaviors documented in children’s medical and educational evaluations from 14 geographically defined areas in the United States participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 2006 and 2008. This study included 8-year-old children living in ADDM Network study areas in 2006 or 2008, including 644 883 children under surveillance, of whom 6577 met surveillance ASD case status based on the DSM-IV-TR. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of children meeting ADDM Network ASD criteria based on the DSM-IV-TR who also met DSM-5 criteria; overall prevalence of ASD using DSM-5 criteria. RESULTS Among the 6577 children classified by the ADDM Network as having ASD based on the DSM-IV-TR, 5339 (81.2%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria. This percentage was similar for boys and girls but higher for those with than without intellectual disability (86.6% and 72.5%, respectively; P DSM-5 ASD criteria but not current ADDM Network ASD case status. Based on these findings, ASD prevalence per 1000 for 2008 would have been 10.0 (95% CI, 9.6–10.3) using DSM-5 criteria compared with the reported prevalence based on DSM-IV-TR criteria of 11.3 (95% CI, 11.0–11.7). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates will likely be lower under DSM-5 than under DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria, although this effect could be tempered by future adaptation of diagnostic practices and documentation of behaviors to fit the new

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Borchsenius, Finn

2017-01-01

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution...... models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe...... with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas...

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Potential Impact on Freshwater Resources from Agrofuel Feedstock Cultivation in Thailand: Implications of the Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pariyapat Nilsalab

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The impact of water use in areas with abundant freshwater resources should not be the same as areas with limited resources. This impact is quantified as water scarcity footprint. The monthly water stress index with reference to environmental water requirement is proposed as a characterization factor. The biofuel policies of Thailand—cassava and sugarcane for bioethanol, and oil palm for biodiesel—were selected for the assessment based on land expansion and displacement scenarios. Cultivation was found to be the most water intensive phase in producing both biodiesel and bioethanol. Thus, the proposed index was applied for assessing and selecting areas having low values of the water scarcity footprint. The results showed low values for expanding oil palm plantations on abandoned land and displacing plantation areas with low yields of maize and pineapple with sugarcane and cassava. Additionally, shifting the crop calendar could be considered to reduce the stress situation such as the central region can avoid the water scarcity footprint by 38% from shifting sugarcane cultivation. Consequently mitigating this potential impact and threats to the ecosystem based on specific circumstances and context would be achieved through applying the proposed index in water resource and land suitability planning.

Potential Impact of the REDD+ Program on Poverty Reduction in Nghe An Province, Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Dinh Tien

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The REDD+ program provides a mechanism for providing financial rewards to forest owners and users who contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. This paper determines the potential impact of the REDD+ program on poverty reduction by comparing income and poverty rate between two household groups that were willing to participate in this study, but that will not participate in the REDD+. The results showed that carbon payment from forests is a significant contributor to the increase in household income of poor people. The average income of households participating in the program is VND 20.68 million in contrast to those not participating whose average income is VND 14.72 million. Results showed that the REDD+ program intervention helped reduce the poverty rate in the two communes by 6.40% (from 39.4% to 33%. The paper recommends that the REDD+ program should facilitate the distribution of land titles to provide security of tenure for individual households that are participating in the program. While the program can contribute to poverty reduction, the program payments can increase income inequality and conflicts between those involved and those not involved in the program and legal ownership of the lands. In addition, a comprehensive research study on the impact of the program on forest conservation and poverty reduction is necessary. Stakeholders of the program should recognize and acknowledge the trade-offs between conservation and economic development or poverty reduction. A comprehensive trade-off analysis of program implementation and a business-as-usual option of commodity production is needed, which could reveal the indirect economic, political, and social costs and benefits of the program.

Estimating the potential impacts of a nuclear reactor accident: methodology and case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cartwright, J.V.; Beemiller, R.M.; Trott, E.A. Jr.; Younger, J.M.

1982-04-01

This monograph describes an industrial impact model that can be used to estimate the regional industry-specific impacts of disasters. Special attention is given to the impacts of possible nuclear reactor accidents. The monograph also presents three applications of the model. The impacts estimated in the case studies are based on (1) general information and reactor-specific data, supplied by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), (2) regional economic models derived from the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) developed at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and (3) additional methodology developed especially for taking into account the unique characteristics of a nuclear reactor accident with respect to regional industrial activity

The Potential Economic Impact of Electricity Restructuring in the State of Oklahoma: Phase II Report; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadley, SW

2001-01-01

In April 1997, the Oklahoma legislature passed a bill to restructure the state's electric industry, requiring that the generation sector be deregulated and allowing retail competition by July 2002. Details of the market structure were to be established later. Senate Bill No.220, introduced in the 2000 legislature, provided additional details on this market, but the bill did not pass. Subsequent discussions have identified the need for an objective analysis of the impact of restructuring on electricity prices and the state's economy, especially considering the experiences of other states following restructuring of their electric systems. Because of the recent experiences of other states undergoing restructuring (e.g., higher prices, greater volatility, lower reliability), concerns have been raised in states currently considering restructuring as to whether their systems are equally vulnerable. Factors such as local generation costs, transmission constraints, market concentration, and market design can all play a role in the success or failure of the market. Energy and ancillary services markets both play a role in having a well-functioning system. Customer responsiveness to market signals can enhance the flexibility of the market. The purpose of this project is to provide a model and process to evaluate the potential price and economic impacts of restructuring the Oklahoma electric industry. The goal is to provide sufficient objective analysis to the Oklahoma legislature that they may make a more informed decision on the timing and details of any future restructuring. It will also serve to inform other stakeholders on the economic issues surrounding restructuring. The project is being conducted in two phases. The Phase I report (Hadley 2001) concentrated on providing an analysis of the Oklahoma system in the near-term, using only present generation and transmission resources. This Phase II report looks further in the future, incorporating the potential of new

Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Emer; O' Riordan, Ruth M; Culloty, Sarah C

2013-03-01

Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010-mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment.

Methodology for and uses of a radiological source term assessment for potential impacts to stormwater and groundwater