WorldWideScience

Sample records for mountain climate technical

  1. Yucca Mountain Climate Technical Support Representative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharpe, Saxon E

    2007-01-01

    The primary objective of Project Activity ORD-FY04-012, 'Yucca Mountain Climate Technical Support Representative', was to provide the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) with expertise on past, present, and future climate scenarios and to support the technical elements of the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) climate program. The Climate Technical Support Representative was to explain, defend, and interpret the YMP climate program to the various audiences during Site Recommendation and License Application. This technical support representative was to support DOE management in the preparation and review of documents, and to participate in comment response for the Final Environmental Impact Statement, the Site Recommendation Hearings, the NRC Sufficiency Comments, and other forums as designated by DOE management. Because the activity was terminated 12 months early and experience a 27% reduction in budget, it was not possible to complete all components of the tasks as originally envisioned. Activities not completed include the qualification of climate datasets and the production of a qualified technical report. The following final report is an unqualified summary of the activities that were completed given the reduced time and funding

  2. Mountain Weather and Climate, Third Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan

    2009-05-01

    For colleagues with diverse interests in the atmosphere, glaciers, radiation, landforms, water resources, vegetation, human implications, and more, Mountain Weather and Climate can be a valuable source of guidance and literature references. The book is organized into seven chapters: 1, Mountains and their climatological study; 2,Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements; 3, Circulation systems related to orography; 4, Climatic characteristics of mountains; 5, Regional case studies; 6, Mountain bioclimatology; and 7, Changes in mountain climates. These chapters are supported by l78 diagrams and photographs, 47 tables, and some 2000 literature references. The volume has an appendix of units and energy conversion factors and a subject index, but it lacks an author index.

  3. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  4. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  5. The mountains influence on Turkey Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensoy, Serhat

    2004-01-01

    Since the Black sea mountains at the north of the country and the Taurus mountains in the south lay parallel to the seashore and rise very sharply rain clouds can not penetrate to the internal part of the country. Rain clouds drops most of their water on the slopes opposite the sea. As rain clouds pass over the mountains and reach Central Anatolia they have no significant capability of rain. For this reason, the Central Anatolia does not have very much precipitation. The difference between the rates of precipitation on the inner and outer slopes seems to be effective on the expansion of plants. For example, there is a subtropical climate prevailing on the Black sea shore between Sinop and Batum where precipitation is more than 1000-2000 mm yearly. Going from Sinop to the mouth of the Sakarya River the rate of precipitation goes down to 800-1250 mm in a year. Running from the Sakarya River to the western area covering Thrace the climate seems to be continental, and in the area dominant plant cover is of the Mediterranean type. Since the succession of the mountains in Western Anatolia lay perpendicular to the seashore, rain clouds penetrate towards the inner regions for about 400 km. The continental climate with long, dry and summer affects this area. In the Eastern region of Anatolia, since the elevation of the mountains exceeds 2500-3000 m, valleys are disorderly scattered and located at high elevations, and the northern Black sea mountains and Caucasian mountains hold the rain clouds, the area is effected by the continental climate with long and very cold winters. Consequently precipitation at the lgdir River goes down to 300 mm while it is 500-800 mm in most of areas and 1000-1500 mm in some regions towards northern Mu and Bingol provinces. As mentioned above, high mountains, which hold rain clouds, surround the Central Anatolia, which has caused drought in this region. In the central Anatolia covering Afyon, Eski hir, Ankara, Qankiri, Qorum, Amasya, Kayseri

  6. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  7. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    2016-01-29

    Jan 29, 2016 ... The programme focuses on hydrology of mountains, which provide water around 40 % of the world population. Changes in temperature and precipitation have in recent years led to the retreat of glaciers in mountains. Climatic changes do not only affect glaciers or the nival zone; a change in climatic ...

  8. Assessing and adapting to climate change in the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA: Overview, biogeography, and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership (BMAP was established to increase climate change awareness, assess vulnerability to climate change, and develop science-based adaptation strategies for national forest lands in the Blue Mountains region of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington (USA. The BMAP process included (1 development of a science-management partnership, (2 a vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on natural resources and infrastructure, (3 development of adaptation options that will help reduce negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a changing climate, and (4 ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the Blue Mountains region. This special issue of Climate Services describes social context and climate change vulnerability assessments for water use and infrastructure, vegetation, and riparian ecosystems of the Blue Mountains region, as well as adaptation options for natural resource management. This manuscript introduces the special issue, describing the management, biogeographic, and climatic context for the Blue Mountains region; the climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation process used in BMAP; and the potential applications of the information described in the special issue. Although the institutional focus of information in the special issue is U.S. Forest Service lands (Malheur, Umatilla, and Wallowa-Whitman National Forests, the broader social context and adaptation options should be applicable to other lands throughout this region and the Pacific Northwest. Keywords: Climate change adaptation, Pacific Northwest, Resource management, Vulnerability assessment, Blue Mountains

  9. Causal Chains Arising from Climate Change in Mountain Regions: the Core Program of the Mountain Research Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Mountains are a widespread terrestrial feature, covering from 12 to 24 percent of the world's terrestrial surface, depending of the definition. Topographic relief is central to the definition of mountains, to the benefits and costs accruing to society and to the cascade of changes expected from climate change. Mountains capture and store water, particularly important in arid regions and in all areas for energy production. In temperate and boreal regions, mountains have a great range in population densities, from empty to urban, while tropical mountains are often densely settled and farmed. Mountain regions contain a wide range of habitats, important for biodiversity, and for primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Climate change interacts with this relief and consequent diversity. Elevation itself may accentuate warming (elevationi dependent warming) in some mountain regions. Even average warming starts complex chains of causality that reverberate through the diverse social ecological mountain systems affecting both the highlands and adjacent lowlands. A single feature of climate change such as higher snow lines affect the climate through albedo, the water cycle through changes in timing of release , water quality through the weathering of newly exposed material, geomorphology through enhanced erosion, plant communities through changes in climatic water balance, and animal and human communities through changes in habitat conditions and resource availabilities. Understanding these causal changes presents a particular interdisciplinary challenge to researchers, from assessing the existence and magnitude of elevation dependent warming and monitoring the full suite of changes within the social ecological system to climate change, to understanding how social ecological systems respond through individual and institutional behavior with repercussions on the long-term sustainability of these systems.

  10. Discussing the Future of U. S. Western Mountains, Climate Change, and Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry F. Diaz; Constance I. Millar

    2004-01-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, and are especially vulnerable to climate effects acting on many biotic systems and the physical settings. Because mountain regions serve as sources of needed natural resources (e.g.,water, forests) and as foundations for desired human activities (e.g., tourism, places to live),changes in mountain systems...

  11. TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT NO. 1: CLIMATE AND INFILTRATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NA

    2004-01-01

    For the past 20 years, extensive field, laboratory, and modeling investigations have been performed at Yucca Mountain, which have led to the development of a number of conceptual models of infiltration and climate for the Yucca Mountain region around the repository site (Flint, A.L. et al. 2001; Wang and Bodvarsson 2003). Evaluating the amount of infiltrating water entering the subsurface is important, because this water may affect the percolation flux, which, in turn, controls seepage into the waste emplacement drifts and radionuclide transport from the repository to the water table. Forecasting of climatic data indicates that during the next 10,000 years at Yucca Mountain, the present-day climate should persist for 400 to 600 years, followed by a warmer and much wetter monsoon climate for 900 to 1,400 years, and by a cooler and wetter glacial-transition climate for the remaining 8,000 to 8,700 years. The analysis of climatic forecasting indicates that long-term climate conditions are generally predictable from a past climate sequence, while short-term climate conditions and weather predictions may be more variable and uncertain. The use of past climate sequences to bound future climate sequences involves several types of uncertainties, such as (1) uncertainty in the timing of future climate, (2) uncertainty in the methodology of climatic forecasting, and (3) uncertainty in the earth's future physical processes. Some of the uncertainties of the climatic forecasting are epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible). Because of the size of the model domain, INFIL treats many flow processes in a simplified manner. For example, uptake of water by roots occurs according to the ''distributed model'', in which available water in each soil layer is withdrawn in proportion to the root density in that layer, multiplied by the total evapotranspirative demand. Runoff is calculated simply as the excess of precipitation over a sum of infiltration and water storage in the

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Palomo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

  13. Separating Trends in Whitebark Pine Radial Growth Related to Climate and Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia L. van de Gevel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins outbreaks have affected millions of hectares of high-elevation conifer forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains during the past century. Little research has examined the distinction between mountain pine beetle outbreaks and climatic influence on radial growth in endangered whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm. ecosystems. We used a new method to explore divergent periods in whitebark pine radial growth after mountain pine beetle outbreaks across six sites in western Montana. We examined a 100-year history of mountain pine beetle outbreaks and climate relationships in whitebark pine radial growth to distinguish whether monthly climate variables or mountain pine outbreaks were the dominant influence on whitebark pine growth during the 20th century. High mortality of whitebark pines was caused by the overlapping effects of previous and current mountain pine beetle outbreaks and white pine blister rust infection. Wet conditions from precipitation and snowpack melt in the previous summer, current spring, and current summer benefit whitebark pine radial growth during the following growing season. Whitebark pine radial growth and climate relationships were strongest in sites less affected by the mountain pine beetle outbreaks or anthropogenic disturbances. Whitebark pine population resiliency should continue to be monitored as more common periods of drought will make whitebark pines more susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack and to white pine blister rust infection.

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSITY: A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN OF PAKISTAN

    OpenAIRE

    S. Ishaq; M. Z. Khan; F. Begum; K. Hussain; R. Amir; A. Hussain; S. Ali

    2016-01-01

    Climate Change is not a stationary phenomenon; it moves from time to time, it represents a major threat to mountainous biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity. The present study is an attempt to identify the current knowledge gap and the effects of climate change on mountainous biodiversity, a special reference to the Gilgit-Baltistan is briefly reviewed. Measuring the impact of climate change on mountain biodiversity is quite challenging, because climate change interacts with every phenomeno...

  15. TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT NO. 1: CLIMATE AND INFILTRATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NA

    2004-05-01

    For the past 20 years, extensive field, laboratory, and modeling investigations have been performed at Yucca Mountain, which have led to the development of a number of conceptual models of infiltration and climate for the Yucca Mountain region around the repository site (Flint, A.L. et al. 2001; Wang and Bodvarsson 2003). Evaluating the amount of infiltrating water entering the subsurface is important, because this water may affect the percolation flux, which, in turn, controls seepage into the waste emplacement drifts and radionuclide transport from the repository to the water table. Forecasting of climatic data indicates that during the next 10,000 years at Yucca Mountain, the present-day climate should persist for 400 to 600 years, followed by a warmer and much wetter monsoon climate for 900 to 1,400 years, and by a cooler and wetter glacial-transition climate for the remaining 8,000 to 8,700 years. The analysis of climatic forecasting indicates that long-term climate conditions are generally predictable from a past climate sequence, while short-term climate conditions and weather predictions may be more variable and uncertain. The use of past climate sequences to bound future climate sequences involves several types of uncertainties, such as (1) uncertainty in the timing of future climate, (2) uncertainty in the methodology of climatic forecasting, and (3) uncertainty in the earth's future physical processes. Some of the uncertainties of the climatic forecasting are epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible). Because of the size of the model domain, INFIL treats many flow processes in a simplified manner. For example, uptake of water by roots occurs according to the ''distributed model'', in which available water in each soil layer is withdrawn in proportion to the root density in that layer, multiplied by the total evapotranspirative demand. Runoff is calculated simply as the excess of precipitation over a sum of infiltration

  16. An overview of the Yucca Mountain Global/Regional Climate Modeling Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval, R.P.; Behl, Y.K.; Thompson, S.L.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a site characterization plan (SCP) to collect detailed information on geology, geohydrology, geochemistry, geoengineering, hydrology, climate, and meteorology (collectively referred to as ''geologic information'') of the Yucca Mountain site. This information will be used to determine if a mined geologic disposal system (MGDS) capable of isolating high-level radioactive waste without adverse effects to public health and safety over 10,000 years, as required by regulations 40 CFR Part 191 and 10 CFR Part 60, could be constructed at the Yucca Mountain site. Forecasts of future climates conditions for the Yucca Mountain area will be based on both empirical and numerical techniques. The empirical modeling is based on the assumption that future climate change will follow past patterns. In this approach, paleclimate records will be analyzed to estimate the nature, timing, and probability of occurrence of certain climate states such as glacials and interglacials over the next 10,000 years. For a given state, key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature will be assumed to be the same as determined from the paleoclimate data. The numerical approach, which is the primary focus of this paper, involves the numerical solution of basic equations associated with atmospheric motions. This paper describes these equations and the strategy for solving them to predict future climate conditions around Yucca Mountain

  17. Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

    2018-04-01

    The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

  18. Yucca Mountain program summary of research, site monitoring and technical review activities (January 1987--June 1988)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-12-01

    Although studies of orbital mechanics provide speculative notions of future climatic trends, they cannot predict how these trends will manifest themselves in the immediate area around Yucca Mountain. The generally accepted approach to this question is to consider the climatic variations that have occurred during the last 10,000 years, and use these as a guide to the likely range of future variation in climate. However, because climatic studies around the world indicate that we are potentially on the verge of another ice age, we should also consider the conditions that predominated during the Pleistocene. The specific aim of this project is to derive the climatic history of Yucca Mountain during the last 20,000 years from the vegetation history. By integrating data obtained from pollen records, woodrat dens (middens), and tree-ring sequences from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) area, a regional climatic record is being generated that can be correlated to data obtained at Yucca Mountain to formulate a local climatic sequence there. This will then be used to determine the magnitude and frequency of climatic variation that have occurred during that time at Yucca Mountain. These data can then be used by other researchers to provide estimates of rainfall, recharge and soil chemical changes for modeling the past hydrology of Yucca Mountain

  19. Slope Controls Grain Yield and Climatic Yield in Mountainous Yunnan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, X.; Rong, L.; Gu, Z.; Feng, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mountainous regions are increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity because of limited arable land, growing population pressure, and climate change. Development of sustainable mountain agriculture will require an increased understanding of the effects of environmental factors on grain and climatic yields. The objective of this study was to explore the relationships between actual grain yield, climatic yield, and environmental factors in a mountainous region in China. We collected data on the average grain yield per unit area in 119 counties in Yunnan province from 1985 to 2012, and chose 17 environmental factors for the same period. Our results showed that actual grain yield ranged from 1.43 to 6.92 t·ha-1, and the climatic yield ranged from -0.15 to -0.01 t·ha-1. Lower climatic yield but higher grain yield was generally found in central areas and at lower slopes and elevations in the western and southwestern counties of Yunnan province. Higher climatic yield but lower grain yield were found in northwestern parts of Yunnan province on steep slopes. Annual precipation and temperature had a weak influence on the climatic yield. Slope explained 44.62 and 26.29% of the variation in grain yield and climatic yield. The effects of topography on grain and climatic yields were greater than climatic factors. Slope was the most important environmental variable for the variability in climatic and grain yields in the mountainous Yunnan province due to the highly heterogeneous topographic conditions. Conversion of slopes to terraces in areas with higher climatic yields is an effective way to maintain grain production in response to climate variability. Additionally, soil amendments and soil and water conservation measures should be considered to maintain soil fertility and aid in sustainable development in central areas, and in counties at lower slopes and elevations in western and southwestern Yunnan province.

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSITY: A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ishaq

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change is not a stationary phenomenon; it moves from time to time, it represents a major threat to mountainous biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity. The present study is an attempt to identify the current knowledge gap and the effects of climate change on mountainous biodiversity, a special reference to the Gilgit-Baltistan is briefly reviewed. Measuring the impact of climate change on mountain biodiversity is quite challenging, because climate change interacts with every phenomenon of ecosystem. The scale of this change is so large and very adverse so strongly connected to ecosystem services, and all communities who use natural resources. This study aims to provide the evidences on the basis of previous literature, in particular context to mountain biodiversity of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB. Mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan have most fragile ecosystem and are more vulnerable to climate change. These mountains host variety of wild fauna and flora, with many endangered species of the world. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of literature we studied because very little research has been conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan about climate change particular to biodiversity. Recommendations are made for increased research efforts in future this including jointly monitoring programs, climate change models and ecological research. Understanding the impact of climate change particular to biodiversity of GB is very important for sustainable management of these natural resources. The Government organizations, NGOs and the research agencies must fill the knowledge gap, so that it will help them for policy making, which will be based on scientific findings and research based.

  1. Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shen-nongjia Massif, Central China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yi

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with con-trasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months (January and July), different seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and win-ter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset (1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quan-titative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃ /yr to 0.0143℃ /yr,–0.0166℃ /yr to 0.0311℃ /yr, and –0.0290℃ /yr to 0.0084℃ /yr, respectively,and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation sys-tem, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting dif-ferences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.

  2. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

    2018-01-01

    Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

  3. The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Theodore

    As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing

  4. Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Labourdette, Diego; Martínez, Felipe; Martín-López, Berta; Montes, Carlos; Pineda, Francisco D

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.

  5. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Technical Data Catalog

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The June 1, 1985, Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear, Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. Each new publication of the Technical Data Catalog supersedes the previous edition

  6. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project technical data catalog

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The June 1, 1985, Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. Each new publication of the Technical Data Catalog supersedes the previous edition

  7. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER POTENTIAL OF THE PAMIR MOUNTAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander F. Finaev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pamir region supplies water for most countries of the Central Asia. Discussions and arguments with regard to reduction of water resources related to climate change are popular today among various governmental and international institutions being a greatconcern for modern society. Probable decrease of the Pamirs runoff will affect downstreamcountries that can face water deficiency. However, there is no scientific rationale behindsuch disputes. The Pamir region is a remote, high-mountainous and hard-to-access area with scarce observation network and no reliable data. It is not sufficiently investigated in order to perform any assessment of climate change. This article represents results of study of climate parameters change (such as temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Pamirs. The study area covers all countries included in this mountain region (Tajikistan, China, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Observation records, remote sensing data and GIS modeling were used in the present work. Chronological data series were divided into two equal time intervals and were treated as climatic periods. Further analysis of climate change helped to estimate its influence on change of water potential in the Pamirs. The paper considers issues of liquid and solid precipitation change in the study area.

  9. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  10. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 21; Issue 1. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change. Information and Announcements Volume 21 Issue 1 January 2016 pp 106-107. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  11. Impact of climate change on the hydrology of High Mountain Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, A.

    2016-01-01

    In Asia, water resources largely depend on water generated in the mountainous upstream parts of several large river basins and hundreds of millions of people depend on their waters downstream. The large-scale impacts of climate change for the water resources in High Mountain Asia are poorly

  12. Enhanced sediment delivery in a changing climate in semi-arid mountain basins: Implications for water resource management and aquatic habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime R. Goode; Charles H. Luce; John M. Buffington

    2012-01-01

    The delivery and transport of sediment through mountain rivers affects aquatic habitat and water resource infrastructure. While climate change is widely expected to produce significant changes in hydrology and stream temperature, the effects of climate change on sediment yield have received less attention. In the northern Rocky Mountains, we expect climate change to...

  13. Technical efficiency of potato and dairy farming in mountainous Kazbegi district, Georgia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Shavgulidze

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The study employs a stochastic frontier analysis to assess technical efficiency of potato and cheese production and determine socio-economic factors that influence farmers' technical efficiency levels in mountainous Kazbegi district of Georgia. The study found improved feeding to be inversely related with technical inefficiency in cheese production. In potato production, the analysis revealed implementation of the plant protection measures and use of quality seeds to be significant aspects that influence technical efficiency of potato growers.

  14. Modern Climate Change and Mountain Skiing Tourism: the Alps and the Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina M. Pestereva

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Relevance of the research of modern climate change is beyond all doubts at the moment. Climate is, first of all, a significant share of any country’s resources. Losses due to global climate change can affect virtually all branches of economy and social aspects, including energy production, eco-systems, agriculture, forests, construction, transport, tourism etc.Climate change imposes certain mode of economy, a strategy of economy’s development years ahead. According to forecasts, for example the one of European environmental agency (EEA, one of the first “hostages” of climate change will be winter tourism and alpine skiing resorts. Climate change seriously influences incomes of countries and certain regions located in mountain areas and developing winter sports.Yet, forecasts of climatologists on modern climate change trends are ambiguous and sometimes controversial. For this reason definite scientific and practical interest is raised by research in climate change trends in mountain areas based on mostly state network of meteorological stations.

  15. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  16. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engler, R.; Randin, C. F.; Thuiller, W.

    2011-01-01

    Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced...... microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples...... and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat...

  17. Technical Efficiency of Potato and Dairy Farming in Mountainous Kazbegi District, Georgia

    OpenAIRE

    Shavgulidze, R.; Bedoshvili, D.; Aurbacher, J.

    2017-01-01

    The study employs a stochastic frontier analysis to assess technical efficiency of potato and cheese production and determine socio-economic factors that influence farmers' technical efficiency levels in mountainous Kazbegi district of Georgia. The study found improved feeding to be inversely related with technical inefficiency in cheese production. In potato production, the analysis revealed implementation of the plant protection measures and use of quality seeds to be significant aspects th...

  18. Regulatory perspective on future climates at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, N.M.; Eisenberg, N.A.; Brooks, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Current regulations of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require that any performance assessment supporting the license application for a high-level waste (HLW) repository must consider the potential for changes in hydrologic conditions caused by reasonably foreseeable climatic conditions. The requirement is important because the earth's climate will almost certainly change significantly during the thousands of years that disposed nuclear wastes will remain hazardous. More importantly, climate controls the range of precipitation, which in turn controls the rates of infiltration, deep percolation, and groundwater flux through a geologic repository located in an unsaturated environment. Therefore, future changes in climate could significantly influence waste isolation in a repository at Yucca Mountain

  19. Yucca Mountain Project technical status report (TSR), October 1989--March 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This Yucca Mountain Project Technical Status Report (TSR) on site characterization is the second in a series of reports that will be issued at approximately six-month intervals during site characterization. In addition, progress made toward the initiation and conduct of new site characterization activities is included. For this report, information on the technical progress made by Yucca Mountain Project participating organizations has been compiled covering the period from October 1989, through March 31, 1990. The status report consists of three sections: an introductory section; a section on the status of site characterization, which includes preparatory activities, sites programs, repository design, seals system design, waste package design, and performance assessment; and a reference section, which provides a complete listing of all published documents cited in the text. 59 refs

  20. Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolova Nina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

  1. Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.; Childs, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year

  2. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Treeline Position in the Swedish Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Moen

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems. This paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the Swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change. Data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. The results show the treeline advancing upward by 233-667 m, depending on the climate scenario used and location within the mountain chain. Such changes hypothetically caused a 75-85% reduction in treeless alpine heaths, with 60-93% of the remaining areas being scree slopes and boulder fields. For this change to occur, the migration rate of the trees would be in the order of 23-221 m yr-1, which is well within published migration rates for wind-dispersed deciduous trees. The remaining alpine areas would be strongly fragmented. These drastic changes would influence all aspects of mountain ecosystems, including biodiversity conservation and human land-use patterns.

  3. Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

    2017-05-01

    This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.

  4. Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

    2008-07-15

    High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these

  5. Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogués Bravo, David; Araújo, Miguel B; Lasanta, Teodoro

    2008-01-01

    precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods: 2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally, the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean...

  6. Technical data management at the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statler, J.; Newbury, C.M.; Heitland, G.W.

    1992-01-01

    The Department of Energy/Office of Civilian Radioactive waste Management (DOE/OCRWM) is responsible for the characterization of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to determine its potential as a site of a high-level radioactive waste repository. The characterization of Yucca Mountain encompasses many diverse investigations, both onsite and in laboratories across the country. Investigations are being conducted of the geology, hydrology, mineralogy, paleoclimate, geotechnical properties, and archeology of the area, to name a few. Effective program management requires that data from site investigations be processed, interpreted and disseminated in a timely manner to support model development and validation, repository design, and performance assessment. The Program must also meet regulatory requirements for making the technical data accessible to a variety of external users throughout the life of the Project. Finally, the DOE/OCRWM must make available the data or its description and access location available for use in support of the license application and supporting documentation. To accomplish these objectives, scientific and engineering data, generated by site characterization activities, and technical data, generated by environmental and socioeconomic impact assessment activities, must be systematically identified, cataloged, stored and disseminated in a controlled manner

  7. Nitrate in Polluted Mountainous Catchments with Mediterranean Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Meixner

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The mountains of southern California receive some of the highest rates of nitrogen (N deposition in the world (~40 kg ha�1 year�1. These high rates of deposition have translated into consistently high levels of nitrate (NO3� in some streams of the San Bernardino Mountains. However, not all streams are exhibiting these high levels of NO3�. Perennial streams have high NO3� concentrations (~200 [b.mu ]moles l�1 while ephemeral streams do not (~20 [b.mu ]moles l�1. This difference points to groundwater as the source of the NO3� observed in streams. Furthermore, the evidence indicates a differential impact of N deposition on terrestrial and aquatic systems in Mediterranean climates, with aquatic systems being impacted more quickly. The primary reason for this difference involves the asynchrony between the time that atmospheric deposition occurs (summer, the time period of maximum soil NO3� availability and leaching (winter, and the time of maximum plant N demand (spring. Our results indicate that semiarid Mediterranean climate systems behave differently from more humid systems in that, because of this asynchrony, aquatic systems may not be indicative of changes in terrestrial ecosystem response. These differences lead us to the conclusion that the extrapolation of impacts from humid to Mediterranean climates is problematic and the concept of N saturation may need to be revisited for semiarid and seasonally dry systems.

  8. Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

    2018-05-24

    The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

  9. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project: Technical data catalog,(quarterly supplement)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The June 1, 1985, Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. A complete revision to the Catalog is published at the end of each fiscal year

  10. Mapping New Terrain: Climate Change and America's West. Report of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry F. CIRMOUNT Committee (Diaz; Constance I. Millar; Daniel R. Cayan; Michael D. Dettinger; Daniel B. Fagre; Lisa J. Graumlich; Greg Greenwood; Malcolm K. Hughes; David L. Peterson; Frank L. Powell; Kelly T. Redmond; Nathan L. Stephenson; Thomas W. Swetnam; Connie) Woodhouse

    2006-01-01

    Climate variability and sustained change presage far-reaching transformations across America’s West, an expanse dominated by immense mountain ranges and interspersed with important urban centers. These mountains provide the region’s life blood—water that courses through its streams and runs out its faucets, power that fuels its industries...

  11. Groundwater dynamics in mountain peatlands with contrasting climate, vegetation, and hydrogeological setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, David J.; Cooper, David J.; Ronayne, Michael J.

    2018-06-01

    Hydrological dynamics act as a primary control on ecosystem function in mountain peatlands, serving as an important regulator of carbon fluxes. In western North America, mountain peatlands exist in different hydrogeological settings, across a range climatic conditions, and vary in floristic composition. The sustainability of these ecosystems, particularly those at the low end of their known elevation range, is susceptible to a changing climate via changes in the water cycle. We conducted a hydrological investigation of two mountain peatlands, with differing vegetation, hydrogeological setting (sloping vs basin), and climate (strong vs weak monsoon influence). Growing season saturated zone water budgets were modeled on a daily basis, and subsurface flow characterizations were performed during multiple field campaigns at each site. The sloping peatland expectedly showed a strong lateral groundwater potential gradient throughout the growing season. Alternatively, the basin peatland had low lateral gradients but more pronounced vertical gradients. A zero-flux plane was apparent at a depth of approximately 50 cm below the peat surface at the basin peatland; shallow groundwater above this depth moved upward towards the surface via evapotranspiration. The differences in groundwater flow dynamics between the two sites also influenced water budgets. Higher groundwater inflow at the sloping peatland offset higher rates of evapotranspiration losses from the saturated zone, which were apparently driven by differences in vegetative cover. This research revealed that although sloping peatlands cover relatively small portions of mountain watersheds, they provide unique settings where vegetation directly utilizes groundwater for transpiration, which were several-fold higher than typically reported for surrounding uplands.

  12. Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

    2018-03-01

    Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

  13. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faybishenko, Boris

    2005-01-01

    At Yucca Mountain, NV, future changes in climatic conditions will probably alter net infiltration, drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile, or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a semiempirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analog meteorological stations, for interglacial(present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region; and (2) corroborate the computed net infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. This study approached calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation effectiveness indices using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate, following a power law relationship between net infiltration and precipitation. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties associated with selecting climate analog sites, using relatively short analog meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and run-on on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenically induced climate changes

  14. Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

    2014-07-01

    Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Late glacial vegetation and climate changes in the high mountains of Bulgaria (Southeast Europe)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozilova, E.D.; Tonkov, S.B.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: The Late glacial vegetation history in the high mountains of Southern Bulgaria (Rila, Pirin, Western Rhodopes) is reconstructed by means of pollen analysis, plant macrofossils and radiocarbon dating of sediments from lakes and peat-bogs located between 1300 and 2200 m a.s.l. The vegetation response to the climate fluctuations after 13000 14 C yrs. BP in the Rila Mountains is bound for the first time to a detailed chronological framework. Two stadial and one interstadial phases are delimited analogous with the Oldest Dryas-Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas cycle for Western Europe. During the stadials mountain-steppe vegetation composed of Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae and other cold-resistant herbs dominated at high elevation with sparse stands of Pinus, Betula, and shrubland of Juniperus and Ephedra. The climate improvement in the interstadial resulted in the initial spread of deciduous and coniferous trees (Quercus, Tilia, Corylus, Carpinus, Abies, Picea) from their local refugia below 1000 m. The palaeoecological record from the climate deterioration during the Younger Dryas is documented in thin sections of the cores investigated. (author)

  16. Understanding and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Public lands in the US Rocky Mountains provide critical ecosystem services, especially to rural communities that rely on these lands for fuel, food, water, and recreation. Climate change will likely affect the ability of these lands to provide ecosystem services. We describe 2 efforts to assess climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation options on federal lands in the Rocky Mountains. We specifically focus on aspects that affect community economic security and livelihood security, including water quality and quantity, timber, livestock grazing, and recreation. Headwaters of the Rocky Mountains serve as the primary source of water for large populations, and these headwaters are located primarily on public land. Thus, federal agencies will play a key role in helping to protect water quantity and quality by promoting watershed function and water conservation. Although increased temperatures and atmospheric concentration of CO2 have the potential to increase timber and forage production in the Rocky Mountains, those gains may be offset by wildfires, droughts, insect outbreaks, non-native species, and altered species composition. Our assessment identified ways in which federal land managers can help sustain forest and range productivity, primarily by increasing ecosystem resilience and minimizing current stressors, such as invasive species. Climate change will likely increase recreation participation. However, recreation managers will need more flexibility to adjust practices, provide recreation opportunities, and sustain economic benefits to communities. Federal agencies are now transitioning from the planning phase of climate change adaptation to implementation to ensure that ecosystem services will continue to be provided from federal lands in a changing climate.

  17. Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobha Poudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study tried to understand the mountainous households’ perception of climate change and its impacts on food security in the Lamjung district of Nepal. The study attempted to find out changes in households food security and daily activities in the face of climate change for the last twenty years. The study started with the 150 household surveys along with participatory rural appraisal to understand the climate change perception of local people and its impact on dimensions of food security. Households expressed different levels of perception in terms of climate change on food security. The result shows that most of the mountainous households experienced increased temperature, less rainfall in winter, an increasing number of natural disasters and the emergence of insects for the last twenty years. They perceived the role of climate change in decreased crop production, decreased dairy products and increased household work. The situation of food security is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change in the future. It was also observed that households have been using different autonomous adaptation measures, such as high yielding crop varieties, enhanced irrigation systems and fertilizers, to cope with the changing climate. Finally, the study recommended policy instruments to enhance food security in the mountainous region amidst changing climate.

  18. Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Bentz; Jacob P. Duncan; James A. Powell

    2016-01-01

    Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle,...

  19. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Adhikari

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being used to adapt to a changing environment through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. At the household level, livelihood diversification, changes in cropping patterns and farming practices, use of multipurpose plant species and income-generation activities were identified as adaptation strategies. Among major strategies at the community level were community forestry-based climate adaptation plans of action for forest and water resource management. Landscape-level adaptation strategies were large-scale collaborative projects and programs, such as Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Chitwan Annapurna Landscape conservation; which had implications at both the local and landscape-level. A proper blending and integration of adaptation strategies from individual households through to the community and to the landscape level is needed for implementing effective adaptation in the region.

  20. Technical progress and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change. Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture. A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy. If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. (Author)

  1. Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Viviroli

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered by climate change. How well do we understand these potential changes today, and what are implications for water resources management, climate change adaptation, and evolving water policy? To answer above questions, we have examined 11 case study regions with the goal of providing a global overview, identifying research gaps and formulating recommendations for research, management and policy.

    After setting the scene regarding water stress, water management capacity and scientific capacity in our case study regions, we examine the state of knowledge in water resources from a highland-lowland viewpoint, focusing on mountain areas on the one hand and the adjacent lowland areas on the other hand. Based on this review, research priorities are identified, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil parameters, evapotranspiration and sublimation, groundwater as well as enhanced warming and feedback mechanisms. In addition, the importance of environmental monitoring at high altitudes is highlighted. We then make recommendations how advancements in the management of mountain water resources under climate change could be achieved in the fields of research, water resources management and policy as well as through better interaction between these fields.

    We conclude that effective management of mountain water resources urgently requires more detailed regional studies and more reliable scenario projections, and that research on mountain water resources must become more integrative by linking relevant disciplines. In addition, the knowledge exchange between managers and researchers must be improved and oriented towards long-term continuous interaction.

  2. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-01-01

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes

  3. The U.S. nuclear waste management program - technical progress at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, L.H. [U.S. Department of Energy (United States)

    2001-07-01

    This paper discusses the current status of a national program being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy for the management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste produced by civilian nuclear power generation and defense-related activities. In 1987 the U.S. Congress directed the Department to characterize the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada and determine its suitability for development of a geologic repository. This paper will focus on the technical progress that has been made after more than 15 years of scientific and engineering investigations at Yucca Mountain, and the remaining work that is being done to support a decision on whether to recommend the site for development of a geologic repository. (author)

  4. A New Estimate of North American Mountain Snow Accumulation From Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael T.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Zhang, Yu; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.

    2018-02-01

    Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1,006 km3, 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in nonmountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1,684 km3, 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain 60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.

  5. Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

  6. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  7. Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Haiganoush K. Preisler; John T. Abatzoglou; Kenneth F. Raffa; Jesse A. Logan

    2016-01-01

    Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle...

  8. Fire history and climate characteristics during the last millennium of the Great Hinggan Mountains at the monsoon margin in northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chuanyu; He, Jiabao; Zhang, Yan; Cong, Jinxin; Han, Dongxue; Wang, Guoping

    2018-03-01

    The northeastern region of China, at the limit of the summer monsoon, is characterized by the presence of mountains that influenced by the Asian summer monsoon on one side and the westerlies on the other; however, few studies have compared the environmental characteristics on the two sides of these mountains. In this study, two peatland cores from the western and eastern sides of the Great Hinggan Mountains were investigated to better understand the climatic and environmental conditions and the measurements of black carbon (BC) and δ13C-BC were used to reconstruct the fire history and environmental characteristics during the last millennium. Our results showed that the variations in the δ13C-BC values are more sensitive to climate changes than the BC fluxes, and the climate forcing mechanisms differed between the two sides of the mountains. Lower δ13C-BC values around 500 cal yr BP on the western side of the mountains indicated climate conditions were wetter than that on the eastern side, and were influenced by low sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The region east of the mountains was mainly influenced by the strong Asian summer monsoon, and the decreasing of δ13C-BC values indicated climate conditions became wetter from 250 cal yr BP to the present and were wetter than that on the western side after 150 cal yr BP. Moreover, when one of these two forcing factors weakened and the other strengthened (e.g. from 400 to 150 cal yr BP), climate conditions in these two sides were similar.

  9. Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia

    Science.gov (United States)

    biodiversity Daniel J. Isaak, Michael K. Young, Charles H. Luce, Steven W. Hostetler, Seth J. Wenger, Erin E author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Charles H. Luce climate change will cause widespread extinctions of flora and fauna in mountain environments because of

  10. Climate Response of Tree Radial Growth at Different Timescales in the Qinling Mountains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changfeng Sun

    Full Text Available The analysis of the tree radial growth response to climate is crucial for dendroclimatological research. However, the response relationships between tree-ring indices and climatic factors at different timescales are not yet clear. In this study, the tree-ring width of Huashan pine (Pinus armandii from Huashan in the Qinling Mountains, north-central China, was used to explore the response differences of tree growth to climatic factors at daily, pentad (5 days, dekad (10 days and monthly timescales. Correlation function and linear regression analysis were applied in this paper. The tree-ring width showed a more sensitive response to daily and pentad climatic factors. With the timescale decreasing, the absolute value of the maximum correlation coefficient between the tree-ring data and precipitation increases as well as temperature (mean, minimum and maximum temperature. Compared to the other three timescales, pentad was more suitable for analysing the response of tree growth to climate. Relative to the monthly climate data, the association between the tree-ring data and the pentad climate data was more remarkable and accurate, and the reconstruction function based on the pentad climate was also more reliable and stable. We found that the major climatic factor limiting Huashan pine growth was the precipitation of pentads 20-35 (from April 6 to June 24 rather than the well-known April-June precipitation. The pentad was also proved to be a better timescale for analysing the climate and tree growth in the western and eastern Qinling Mountains. The formation of the earlywood density of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis from Shimenshan in western Qinling was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of pentads 28-32 (from May 16 to June 9. The maximum temperature of pentads 28-33 (from May 16 to June 14 was the major factor affecting the ring width of Chinese pine from Shirenshan in eastern Qinling.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Rocky Mountain Paleoglaciers - Insights into the Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Subsequent Deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Numerical modeling of paleoglaciers can yield information on the climatic conditions necessary to sustain those glaciers. In this study we apply a coupled 2-d mass/energy balance and flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstruct local last glacial maximum (LLGM) glaciers and paleoclimate in ten study areas along the crest of the U.S. Rocky Mountains between 33°N and 49°N. In some of the areas, where timing of post-LLGM ice recession is constrained by surface exposure ages on either polished bedrock upvalley from the LLGM moraines or post-LLGM recessional moraines, we use the model to assess magnitudes and rates of climate change during deglaciation. The modeling reveals a complex pattern of LLGM climate. The magnitude of LLGM-to-modern climate change (temperature and/or precipitation change) was greater in both the northern (Montana) Rocky Mountains and southern (New Mexico) Rocky Mountains than in the middle (Wyoming and Colorado) Rocky Mountains. We use temperature depression estimates from global and regional climate models to infer LLGM precipitation from our glacier model results. Our results suggest a reduction of precipitation coupled with strongly depressed temperatures in the north, contrasted with strongly enhanced precipitation and much more modest temperature depression in the south. The middle Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming appear to have experienced a reduction in precipitation at the LLGM without the strong temperature depression of the northern Rocky Mountains. Preliminary work on modeling of deglaciation in the Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado suggests that approximately half of the LLGM-to-modern climate change took place during the initial ~2400 years of deglaciation. If increasing temperature and changing solar insolation were the sole drivers of this initial deglaciation, then temperature would need to have risen by slightly more than 1°C/ky through this interval to account for the observed rate of ice recession.

  12. Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the

  13. Transhumant Pastoralism in the Context of Socioeconomic and Climate Change in the Mountains of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popular Gentle

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This research explored how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and promoted in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountain regions of Nepal. Based on case study research conducted in Nepal’s western mountains, the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context were analyzed. We found that indigenous and traditional knowledge, feelings of cultural identity, collective ownership, income, and mutual benefits have acted as motivating factors in sustaining transhumant pastoralism for generations. The continuation of this practice is threatened by the following challenges: the impacts of climate change on mountain ecosystems, socioeconomic changes, market influence on livelihood decisions, youth migration and labor shortage, low motivation of local people to engage in livestock rearing, and conflicts between herder and nonherder communities and institutions, as well as inadequate policy support and institutional arrangements. We conclude that unless there are positive policy and institutional arrangements to support transhumant pastoralism, the age-old practice will disappear.

  14. Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

    2007-12-01

    Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the

  15. Microbial ecology of mountain glacier ecosystems: biodiversity, ecological connections and implications of a warming climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotaling, Scott; Hood, Eran; Hamilton, Trinity L

    2017-08-01

    Glacier ecosystems are teeming with life on, beneath, and to a lesser degree, within their icy masses. This conclusion largely stems from polar research, with less attention paid to mountain glaciers that overlap environmentally and ecologically with their polar counterparts in some ways, but diverge in others. One difference lies in the susceptibility of mountain glaciers to the near-term threat of climate change, as they tend to be much smaller in both area and volume. Moreover, mountain glaciers are typically steeper, more dependent upon basal sliding for movement, and experience higher seasonal precipitation. Here, we provide a modern synthesis of the microbial ecology of mountain glacier ecosystems, and particularly those at low- to mid-latitudes. We focus on five ecological zones: the supraglacial surface, englacial interior, subglacial bedrock-ice interface, proglacial streams and glacier forefields. For each, we discuss the role of microbiota in biogeochemical cycling and outline ecological and hydrological connections among zones, underscoring the interconnected nature of these ecosystems. Collectively, we highlight the need to: better document the biodiversity and functional roles of mountain glacier microbiota; describe the ecological implications of rapid glacial retreat under climate change and resolve the relative contributions of ecological zones to broader ecosystem function. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-02-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

  18. Temporal and spatial characteristics of wet-dry climate variation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Meiyan; Xi, Chen; Bao, Anming

    2008-10-01

    Based on the monthly temperature and rainfall data of 1961-2006, aridity is calculated and its multi-time scales characteristics in different divisions in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains have been analyzed using Mexican Hat wavelet analysis in this article. The periodic oscillation of aridity variation and the points of abrupt change at different time scales along the time series are discovered. Also the trend of climate change is tested. Additionally, possible association of climate variation in this area with ENSO is explored using SOI date series. The research results indicate that there exist obvious regional characteristics of wet-dry climate variation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains. Wavelet analysis shows that there mainly exits two modes of scales (12-24 years and 4-8 years) in every division, while catastrophe point differs in different zones. To predict on the scale of 12-24 years, it will be relatively dry in mountain division and desert area in a period after 2006. In addition, the transition from warm-dry to warm-wet appears in oasis area. Correlation analysis indicted that aridity variation of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is affected by ENSO, while influence degree is different between areas; furthermore, this influence is one-year lagging behind ENSO in the whole area.

  19. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Technical Data Catalog (quarterly supplement)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The June 1, 1985, Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. A complete revision to the Catalog is published at the end of each fiscal year. Supplements to the end-of-year edition are published each quarter. These supplements provide information related to new data items not included in previous quarterly updates and data items affected by changes to previously published reference information. The Technical Data Catalog, dated December 31, 1992, should be retained as the baseline document for the supplements until the end-of-year revision is published and distributed in October 1993

  20. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project: Technical Data Catalog quarterly supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-03-31

    The March 21, 1993, Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. A complete revision to the Catalog is published at the end of each fiscal year. Supplements to the end-of-year edition are published each quarter. These supplements provide information related to new data items not included in previous quarterly updates and data items affected by changes to previously published reference information. The Technical Data Catalog, dated September 30, 1993, should be retained as the baseline document for the supplements until the end-of-year revision is published and distributed in October 1994.

  1. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project technical data catalog: Quarterly supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    The Department of Energy (DOE)/Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the time (date), place, and method of acquisition; and where the data may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed-in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and distributed in the month following the end of each quarter. A complete revision to the catalog is published at the end of each fiscal year. Supplements to the end-of-year edition are published each quarter. These supplements provide information related to new data items not included in previous quarterly updates and data items affected by changes to previously published reference information. The Technical Data Catalog, dated September 30, 1994, should be retained as the baseline document for the supplements until the end-of-year revision is published and distributed in October 1995.

  2. Model-based evidence for persistent species zonation shifts in the southern Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, A.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Dwire, K. A.; Fornwalt, P.; Sibold, J.; Negrón, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Forests in the Rocky Mountains are a crucial part of the North American carbon budget, but increases in disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire, in conjunction with climate change, threaten their vitality. Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased by 2°C since 1950 and the higher elevations are warming faster than the rest of the landscape. It is predicted that this warming trend will continue, and that by the end of this century, nearly 50% of the western US landscape will have climate profiles with no current analog within that region. Individual tree-based modeling allows various climate change scenarios and their effects on forest dynamics to be tested. We use an updated individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) at a subalpine site in the southern Rocky Mountains. UVAFME has been quantitatively and qualitatively validated in the southern Rocky Mountains, and results show that UVAFME-output on size structure, biomass, and species composition compares reasonably to inventory data and descriptions of vegetation zonation and successional dynamics for the region. We perform a climate sensitivity test in which temperature is first increased linearly by 2°C over 100 years, stabilized for 200 years, cooled back to present climate values over 100 years, and again stabilized for 200 years. This test is conducted to determine what effect elevated temperatures may have on vegetation zonation, and how persistent the changes may be if the climate is brought back to its current state. Results show that elevated temperatures within the southern Rocky Mountains may lead to decreases in biomass and changes in species composition as species migrate upslope. These changes are also likely to be fairly persistent for at least one- to two-hundred years. The results from this study suggest that UVAFME and other individual-based gap models can be used to inform forest management and climate mitigation

  3. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercon, Gerd [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Subprogramme, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA, Seibersdorf (Austria); Gerardo-Abaya, Jane [Division for Asia and the Pacific Section 2, Department of Technical Cooperation, IAEA, Vienna (Austria); Mavlyudov, Bulat [Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); others, and

    2014-07-15

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas.

  4. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dercon, Gerd; Gerardo-Abaya, Jane; Mavlyudov, Bulat

    2014-01-01

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

  5. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassi, O.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  6. Water Futures for Cold Mountain Ecohydrology under Climate Change - Results from the North American Cordilleran Transect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Fang, X.; Whitfield, P. H.; Marks, D. G.; Janowicz, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    A transect comprising three intensively researched mountain headwater catchments stretching from the northern US to northern Canada provides the basis to downscale climate models outputs for mountain hydrology and insight for an assessment of water futures under changing climate and vegetation using a physically based hydrological model. Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho; Marmot Creek, Alberta and Wolf Creek, Yukon are high mountain catchments dominated by forests and alpine shrub and grass vegetation with long-term snow, hydrometric and meteorological observations and extensive ecohydrological process studies. The physically based, modular, flexible and object-oriented Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM) was used to create custom spatially distributed hydrological models for these three catchments. Model parameterisations were based on knowledge of hydrological processes, basin physiography, soils and vegetation with minimal or no calibration from streamflow measurements. The models were run over multidecadal periods using high-elevation meteorological observations to assess the recent ecohydrological functioning of these catchments. The results showed unique features in each catchment, from snowdrift-fed aspen pocket forests in Reynolds Mountain East, to deep late-lying snowdrifts at treeline larch forests in Marmot Creek, and snow-trapping shrub tundra overlying discontinuous permafrost in Wolf Creek. The meteorological observations were then perturbed using the changes in monthly temperature and precipitation predicted by the NARCCAP modelling outputs for the mid-21st C. In all catchments there is a dramatic decline in snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and of snow interception by and sublimation from evergreen canopies that is associated with warmer winters. Reduced sublimation loss only partially compensated for greater rainfall fractions of precipitation. Under climate change, snowmelt was earlier and slower and at the lowest elevations

  7. Climatic modulation of seismicity in the Alpine-Himalayan mountain range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.; Zuccolo, E.

    2009-04-01

    The influence of strain field variations associated with seasonal and longer term climatic phenomena on earthquake occurrence is investigated. Two regions (Himalaya and Alps), characterized by present day mountain building and relevant glaciers retreat, as well as by sufficiently long earthquake catalogues, are suitable for the analysis. Secular variations of permanent glaciers dimensions, which are naturally grossly correlated with long-term average surface atmosphere temperature changes, as well as seasonal snow load, cause crustal deformations that modulate seismicity. (author)

  8. Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chih Lin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Tree species in mountainous areas are expected to shift their distribution upward in elevation in response to climate change, calling for a potential redesign of existing protected areas. This study aims to predict whether or not the distributions of two high-mountain tree species, Abies (Abies kawakamii and Tsuga (Tsuga chinensis var. formosana, will significantly shift upward due to temperature change, and whether current protected areas will be suitable for conserving these species. Future temperature change was projected for 15 different future scenarios produced from five global climate models. Shifts in Abies and Tsuga distributions were then predicted through the use of species distribution models (SDMs which included occurrence data of Abies and Tsuga, as well as seasonal temperature, and elevation. The 25 km × 25 km downscaled General Circulation Model (GCMs data for 2020–2039 produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform was adopted in this study. Habitat suitability in the study area was calculated using maximum entropy model under different climatic scenarios. A bootstrap method was applied to assess the parameter uncertainty of the maximum entropy model. In comparison to the baseline projection, we found that there are significant differences in suitable habitat distributions for Abies and Tsuga under seven of the 15 scenarios. The results suggest that mountainous ecosystems will be substantially impacted by climate change. We also found that the uncertainty originating from GCMs and the parameters of the SDM contribute most to the overall level of variability in species distributions. Finally, based on the uncertainty analysis and the shift in habitat suitability, we applied systematic conservation planning approaches to identify suitable areas to add to Taiwan’s protected area network.

  9. Climate along the crest of the US Rocky Mountains during the last glaciation: preliminary insights from numerical modeling of paleoglaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Plummer, M. A.; Huss, E.; Spiess, V. M.; Mackall, B. T.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Quirk, B.

    2012-12-01

    Climate conditions at the time of the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the US Rocky Mountains were assessed using a 2-d coupled glacier energy/mass-balance and ice-flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003). The model was employed to understand the conditions that would be necessary to sustain valley glaciers and small mountain icecaps at their maximum extents in eight areas distributed along the crest of the range from northern New Mexico (35.8oN) to northern Montana (48.6oN). For each setting, model experiments yield a set of temperature and precipitation combinations that may have accompanied the local LGM. If the results of global and regional climate models are used to constrain temperature depression estimates from our model experiments, the following precipitation pattern emerges for the local LGM. In the northern Rocky Mountains in Montana and northern Wyoming, model results suggest a strong reduction in precipitation of 50% or more. In the central Rocky Mountains of southern Wyoming and Colorado, precipitation appears to have been 50-90% of modern. By contrast, precipitation appears to have been strongly enhanced in the southern Rocky Mountains of New Mexico. These results are broadly consistent with a pattern of precipitation observed in global and regional climate simulations of the LGM in the western U.S., in which precipitation was reduced in the northern Rocky Mountains but increased in the southern Rocky Mountains. This pattern may reflect a southward displacement of mean position the Pacific Jet Stream in western North America during and possibly following the LGM.

  10. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James Houseworth

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  11. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

  12. Climatic architecture: Situation, principles, establishment of technical policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brejon, P.

    1994-01-01

    Climatic architecture, despite the efforts of its protagonists, remains nearly marginal. Nevertheless, environmental awareness is gaining ground, whether through concern for the depletion of natural resources, for global warming or for CO 2 emissions. It is only by establishing technical policies, making an effort in terms of training and research and distributing knowledge to all those in the business that the principles of climatic architecture will actually be applied in the field. Resources are available to make climatic architecture a fundamental concern in the design of environmentally friendly buildings. (author). 6 refs, 3 tabs

  13. Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

    2008-01-01

    Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

  14. Impacts of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, A.L.; Taylor, S.W. [Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC (Canada). Pacific Forestry Centre; Regniere, J. [Canadian Forest Service, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Laurentian Forestry Centre; Logan, J.A.; Bentz, B.J. [United States Dept. of Agriculture, Logan, UT (United States). Logan Forestry Sciences Laboratory; Powell, J.A. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics

    2006-07-01

    The elevational and latitudinal range of mountain pine beetle (MPB) has been limited by climatic conditions that are currently unfavorable for brood development. This study examined the impact of climatic conditions on the establishment and persistence of MPB using a spatially explicit, climate-driven simulation tool. Historic weather records were also used to create maps of past habitats for MPB in British Columbia. Map overlays were then created to determine if MPB has expanded its range due to changes in the province's climate. The distribution of climatically suitable habitats was examined in 10-year increments. Results of the study showed an increase in benign habitats. MPB populations have expanded into new areas as a result of changes in climate. Additional range expansion for MPB was then assessed using a global circulation model along with a conservative forcing scenario that forecast a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) by 2050. Weather conditions were then combined with a climatic suitability model in order to examine areas of climatically suitable habitats. It was concluded that continued eastward expansion by MPB is probable. 44 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs.

  15. Microrefugia, Climate Change, and Conservation of Cedrus atlantica in the Rif Mountains, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachid Cheddadi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study reconstructs and interprets the changing range of Atlas cedar in northern Morocco over the last 9,000 years. A synthesis of fossil pollen records indicated that Atlas cedars occupied a wider range at lower elevations during the mid-Holocene than today. The mid-Holocene geographical expansion reflected low winter temperatures and higher water availability over the whole range of the Rif Mountains relative to modern conditions. A trend of increasing aridity observed after 6,000 years BP progressively reduced the range of Atlas cedar and prompted its migration toward elevations above 1,400 masl. To assess the impact of climate change on cedar populations over the last decades, we performed a transient model simulation for the period between 1960 and 2010. Our simulation showed that the range of Atlas cedar decreased by about 75% over the last 50 years and that the eastern populations of the range in the Rif Mountains were even more threatened by the overall lack of water availability than the western ones. Today, Atlas cedar populations in the Rif Mountains are persisting in restricted and isolated areas (Jbel Kelti, Talassemtane, Jbel Tiziren, Oursane, Tidighine that we consider to be modern microrefugia. Conservation of these isolated populations is essential for the future survival of the species, preserving polymorphisms and the potential for population recovery under different climatic conditions.

  16. Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.

    1995-06-01

    The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

  17. Technical data base quarterly report, April--June 1992; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-09-01

    The acquisition and development of technical data are activities that provide the information base from which the Yucca mountain Site will be characterized and may P-ventually be licensed as a high-level waste repository. The Project Technical Data Base (TDB) is the repository for the regional and site-specific technical data required in intermediate and license application analyses and models. The TDB Quarterly Report provides the mechanism for identifying technical data currently available from the Project TDB. Due to the variety of scientific information generated by YMP activities, the Project TDB consists of three components, each designed to store specific types of data. The Site and Engineering Properties Data Base (SEPDB) maintains technical data best stored in a tabular format. The Geographic Nodal Information Study and Evaluation System (GENISES), which is the Geographic Information System (GIS) component of the Project TDB, maintains spatial or map-like data. The Geologic and Engineering Materials Bibliography of Chemical Species (GEMBOCHS) data base maintains thermodynamic/geochemical data needed to support geochemical reaction models involving the waste package and repository geochemical environment. Each of these data bases are addressed independently within the TDB Quarterly Report.

  18. The influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flint, A.L.; Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18 O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18 O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 18 O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies, and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface ( 250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded tuff Members, do not appear to act as a capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop

  19. Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2012-01-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process...

  20. Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Christopoulou, Anastasia; Galanidis, Alexandros; Michelaki, Chrysanthi Z; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Fulé, Peter Z; Arianoutsou, Margarita

    2017-11-15

    In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (P SP ). The responsiveness of annual growth to P SP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate change in the Alps: impacts and natural risks. ONERC's Technical Report N.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Mountain ranges are very sensitive to climatic variations. The impacts of climate change on theses territories can be various, from the modification of the biodiversity to the permafrost melting and the evolution of natural hazards. The assessment of temperature rise and its impacts on mountains constitutes an important issue considering the strong uncertainties and the specific sensitivity linked to these areas. The territorial manager - policy makers and technicians - have to deal with this questioning for the implementation of short term actions as well as for strategic choices in terms of land planning and spatial development. This is why 22 public institutions from seven Alpine countries were involved in the European ClimChAlp project. The ONERC participated actively to this project in collaboration with the Rhone-Alpes Region and the Pole Grenoblois Risques Naturels. This report is based on the synthesis realised by the French partners to propose a common base of knowledge about climate change and its impacts in the Alps. (authors)

  2. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind...... plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic...... turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our...

  3. Multitemporal Snow Cover Mapping in Mountainous Terrain for Landsat Climate Data Record Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Christopher J.; Manson, Steven M.; Bauer, Marvin E.; Hall, Dorothy K.

    2013-01-01

    A multitemporal method to map snow cover in mountainous terrain is proposed to guide Landsat climate data record (CDR) development. The Landsat image archive including MSS, TM, and ETM+ imagery was used to construct a prototype Landsat snow cover CDR for the interior northwestern United States. Landsat snow cover CDRs are designed to capture snow-covered area (SCA) variability at discrete bi-monthly intervals that correspond to ground-based snow telemetry (SNOTEL) snow-water-equivalent (SWE) measurements. The June 1 bi-monthly interval was selected for initial CDR development, and was based on peak snowmelt timing for this mountainous region. Fifty-four Landsat images from 1975 to 2011 were preprocessed that included image registration, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance conversion, cloud and shadow masking, and topographic normalization. Snow covered pixels were retrieved using the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) and unsupervised classification, and pixels having greater (less) than 50% snow cover were classified presence (absence). A normalized SCA equation was derived to independently estimate SCA given missing image coverage and cloud-shadow contamination. Relative frequency maps of missing pixels were assembled to assess whether systematic biases were embedded within this Landsat CDR. Our results suggest that it is possible to confidently estimate historical bi-monthly SCA from partially cloudy Landsat images. This multitemporal method is intended to guide Landsat CDR development for freshwaterscarce regions of the western US to monitor climate-driven changes in mountain snowpack extent.

  4. Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

    2017-01-01

    One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

  5. A changing world: Using nuclear techniques to investigate the impact of climate change on polar and mountainous regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Sasha

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear techniques are being used in polar and mountainous regions to study climate change and its impact on the quality of land, water and ecosystems in order to better conserve and manage these resources. Researchers from around the world will be using data from 13 benchmark sites to draw conclusions about the effects of the rapidly changing climate on the Arctic, mountains and the western part of Antarctica, which have alarmed communities, environmentalists, scientists and policy makers. Between July 2015 and July 2016 they will be using isotopic and nuclear techniques, as well as geochemical and biological analytical methods from other scientific disciplines. This will enable them to track soil and water, to monitor the movement of soil and sediment and to assess the effects of melting permafrost on the atmosphere, as well as on the land, water and fragile ecosystems of mountainous and polar regions. The measurements follow numerous on-site tests carried out since November 2014 to perfect the sampling technique.

  6. Abandoned mines, mountain sports, and climate variability: Implications for the Colorado tourism economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Andrew; McKnight, Diane; Wyatt, Lane

    Until recently, the allure of the mountains in the American West was primarily extractive, for commodities like timber, water, and precious metals [Baron et. al., 2000]. Now, the effective marketing and management of the regions “white gold” by the ski industry has stimulated significant recreation-related growth and development in the last several decades. Under an uncertain climatic future, however, these burgeoning industries, and the communities that have grown up in relation to them, are facing water quality constraints inherited from historical mining practices, causing mountain water to become a limited resource more valuable than the precious metals of the past. Further, the current lack of proven, in-situ approaches for addressing distributed, mining waste pollution of fresh water complicates potential remediation efforts.

  7. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost

  8. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  9. Tracking climate change in oligotrophic mountain lakes: Recent hydrology and productivity synergies in Lago de Sanabria (NW Iberian Peninsula).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Recio, Clemente; Vega, José Carlos; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-07-15

    Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009-2011. δ 18 O lakewater and δD lakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ 13 C POM and δ 13 C DIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl-a, and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ 13 C POM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope

  10. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project: Technical Data Catalog (quarterly supplement), June 30, 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The DOE/NRC Site-Specific Procedural Agreement for Geologic Repository Site Investigation and Characterization Program requires the DOE to develop and maintain a catalog of data which will be updated and provided to the NRC at least quarterly. This catalog is to include a description of the data; the date, place, and method of acquisition; and where it may be examined. The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Technical Data Catalog is published and distributed in accordance with the requirements of the Site-Specific Agreement. The YMP Technical Data Catalog is a report based on reference information contained in the YMP Automated Technical Data Tracking System (ATDT). The reference information is provided by Participants for data acquired or developed in support of the YMP. The Technical Data Catalog is updated quarterly and published in the month following the end of each quarter. A complete revision to the catalog is published at the end of each fiscal year. Supplements to the end-of-year edition are published each quarter. These supplements provide information related to new data items not included in previous quarterly updates and data items affected by changes to previously published reference information. The Technical Data Catalog, dated September 30, 1993, should be retained as the baseline document for the supplements until the end-of-year revision is published and distributed in October 1994

  11. The NextData Project: a national Italian system for the retrieval, storage, access and diffusion of environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provenzale, Antonello

    2013-04-01

    Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental change and many marine regions provide information on past climate variations. The Project of Interest NextData will favour the implementation of measurement networks in remote mountain and marine areas and will develop efficient web portals to access meteoclimatic and atmospheric composition data, past climate information from ice and sediment cores, biodiversity and ecosystem data, measurements of the hydrological cycle, marine reanalyses and climate projections at global and regional scale. New data on the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections in the Alps, the Himalaya-Karakoram, the Mediterranean region and other areas of interest will be obtained and made available. The pilot studies conducted during the project will allow for obtaining new estimates on the availability of water resources and on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on high-altitude environments, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on ecosystems, health and societies in mountain regions. The system of archives and the scientific results produced by the NextData project will provide a unique data base for research, for environmental management and for the estimate of climate change impacts, allowing for the development of knowledge-based environmental and climate adaptation policies.

  12. Climate change and mountain Grouse: recent evidences from alpine habitats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brugnoli A

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Current climate change, referring as well to the observed rain and temperature patterns as to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions, has a deep influence on biotic communities and, in particular, on mountain Grouse. These species show great adaptation to coldness, are highly sedentary and have quite “strict” ecological requirements, when it deals with habitat selection. Moreover, their alpine ranges are dangerously marginal to the main distribution areas, which increases the risk of dramatic changes in occurrence, demography and ecology. However, not all the species will predictably be exposed in the same way to the menace of climate change over the next 50-100 years. This article gives a brief review of the main data acquired in the alpine environment in this matter. It also underlines the utmost need to proceed with research and monitoring activities, in order to effectively adapt and manage conservation strategies on mid-long terms.

  13. Mountain peatlands range from CO2 sinks at high elevations to sources at low elevations: Implications for a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Millar; David J. Cooper; Kathleen A. Dwire; Robert M. Hubbard; Joseph. von Fischer

    2016-01-01

    Mountain fens found in western North America have sequestered atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) for millennia, provide important habitat for wildlife, and serve as refugia for regionally-rare plant species typically found in boreal regions. It is unclear how Rocky Mountain fens are responding to a changing climate. It is possible that fens found at lower elevations may...

  14. Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

    2018-04-01

    The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

  15. Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

    2013-05-01

    The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF

  16. Impact of climate fluctuations on deposition of DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane in mountain glaciers: Evidence from ice core records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaoping; Gong Ping; Zhang, Qianggong; Yao Tandong

    2010-01-01

    How do climate fluctuations affect DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) distribution in the global scale? In this study, the interactions between climate variations and depositions of DDT and HCH in ice cores from Mt. Everest (the Tibetan Plateau), Mt. Muztagata (the eastern Pamirs) and the Rocky Mountains were investigated. All data regarding DDT/HCH deposition were obtained from the published results. Concentrations of DDT and HCH in an ice core from Mt. Everest were associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Concentrations of DDT in an ice core from Mt. Muztagata were significantly correlated with the Siberia High pattern. Concentrations of HCH in an ice core from Snow Dome of the Rocky Mountains responded to the North Atlantic Oscillation. These associations suggested that there are some linkages between climate variations and the global distribution of persistent organic pollutants. - Our study approves the potential contribution of ice core records of POPs to transport mechanisms of POPs.

  17. Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, G. P.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

  18. Mountains: top down.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodwell, George M

    2004-11-01

    Mountainous regions offer not only essential habitat and resources, including water, to the earth's more than 6 billion inhabitants, but also insights into how the global human habitat works, how it is being changed at the moment as global climates are disrupted, and how the disruption may lead to global biotic and economic impoverishment. At least 600 million of the earth's more than 6 billion humans dwell in mountainous regions. Such regions feed water into all the major rivers of the world whose valleys support most of the rest of us. At least half of the valley dwellers receive part or all of their water from montane sources, many from the melt water of glaciers, others from the annual snow melt. Glaciers are retreating globally as the earth warms as a result of human-caused changes in the composition of the atmosphere. Many are disappearing, a change that threatens municipal water supplies virtually globally. The warming is greatest in the higher latitudes where the largest glaciers such as those of Greenland and the Antarctic Continent have become vulnerable. The melting of ice in the northern hemisphere raises serious concerns about the continued flow of the Gulf Stream and the possibility of massive climatic changes in Scandinavia and northern Europe. Mountains are also biotic islands in the sea life, rich in endemism at the ecotype level. The systematic warming of the earth changes the environment out from under these genetically specialized strains (ecotypes) which are then maladapted and vulnerable to diseases of all types. The process is systematic impoverishment in the pattern conspicuous on mountain slopes with increasing exposure to climatic extremes. It is seen now in the increased mortality and morbidity of plants as climatic changes accumulate. The seriousness of the global climatic disruption is especially clear in any consideration of mountains. It can and must be addressed constructively despite the adamancy of the current US administration.

  19. Water towers of the Great Basin: climatic and hydrologic change at watershed scales in a mountainous arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change in the Great Basin will manifest through changes in the hydrologic cycle. Downscaled climate data and projections run through the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) produce time series of hydrologic response - recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) - that directly affect water resources and vegetation. More than 50 climate projections from CMIP5 were screened using a cluster analysis of end-century (2077-2099) seasonal precipitation and annual temperature to produce a reduced subset of 12 climate futures that cover a wide range of macroclimate response. Importantly, variations among GCMs in summer precipitation produced by the SW monsoon are captured. Data were averaged within 84 HUC8 watersheds with widley varying climate, topography, and geology. Resultant time series allow for multivariate analysis of hydrologic response, especially partitioning between snowpack, recharge, runoff, and actual evapotranspiration. Because the bulk of snowpack accumulation is restricted to small areas of isolated mountain ranges, losses of snowpack can be extreme as snowline moves up the mountains with warming. Loss of snowpack also affects recharge and runoff rates, and importantly, the recharge/runoff ratio - as snowpacks fade, recharge tends to increase relative to runoff. Thresholds for regime shifts can be identified, but the unique topography and geology of each basin must be considered in assessing hydrologic response.

  20. Evidence of climate change impact on stream low flow from the tropical mountain rainforest watershed in Hainan Island, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Z. Zhou; Y. Ouyang; Z. Qiu; G. Zhou; M. Lin; Y. Li

    2017-01-01

    Stream low flow estimates are central to assessing climate change impact, water resource management, and ecosystem restoration. This study investigated the impacts of climate change upon stream low flows from a rainforest watershed in Jianfengling (JFL) Mountain, Hainan Island, China, using the low flow selection method as well as the frequency and probability analysis...

  1. Distribution of mountain wetlands and their response to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Groups, northeastern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, N.; Sugai, T.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain wetlands, natural peatlands or lakes, with narrow catchment areas need abundant water supply and topography retaining water because of unstable water condition. This study examines wetland distribution with a focus on topography and snow accumulation, and discuss wetland evolution responding to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Group, northeastern Japan, where the East Asian winter monsoon brings heavier snow and where has many wetlands of varied origin: crater lakes and wetlands in nivation hollows on original volcanic surfaces, and wetlands in depressions formed by landslides. We identified and classified wetlands using aerial photographs and 5-m and 10-m digital elevation models. Wetlands on the original volcanic surfaces tend to be concentrated under the small scarps with much snow or on saddles of the mountain ridge where snowmelt from surrounding slopes maintains a moist environment. More lake type wetlands are formed in the saddle than in the snowdrifts. That may represent that the saddles can correct more recharge water and may be a more suitable topographic condition for wetland formation and endurance. On the contrary, wetlands on landslides lie at the foot of the scarps where spring water can be abundantly supplied, regardless of snow accumulation. We used lithological analysis, 14C dating, tephra age data, and carbon contents of wetland cores to compare the evolution of wetlands, one (the Oyachi wetland) within a huge landslide and three (the Appi Highland wetlands) outside of a landslide area. We suggest that the evolution of the wetland in the landslide is primarily influenced by landslide movements and stream dissection rather than climate change. In the Appi Highland wetlands, peatlands appeared much later and at the almost same time in the Medieval Warm Period. We suggest that the development of mountain wetlands outside of landslide areas is primarily related to climate changes. Responsiveness of mountain wetlands to

  2. National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Loveland; Rezaul Mahmood; Toral Patel-Weynand; Krista Karstensen; Kari Beckendorf; Norman Bliss; Andrew Carleton

    2012-01-01

    This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature...

  3. CLIMATIC FORECASTING OF NET INFILTRATION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, USING ANALOGUE METEOROLOGICAL DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. Faybishenko

    2005-01-01

    Net infiltration is a key hydrologic parameter that controls the rate of deep percolation through the unsaturated zone, the groundwater recharge, radionuclide transport, and seepage into the underground tunnels. Because net infiltration is largely affected by climatic conditions, future changes in climatic conditions will potentially alter net infiltration. The objectives of this presentation are to: (1) Present a conceptual model and a semi-empirical approach for regional, climatic forecasting of net infiltration, based on the precipitation and temperature data from analogue meteorological stations, and (2) Demonstrate the results of forecasting net infiltration for future climates--interglacial, monsoon and glacial--over the Yucca Mountain region for the period of 500,000 years. Calculations of the net infiltration were performed using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, for which potential evapotranspiration was evaluated from the temperature-based Thornthwaite formula. (Both Budyko's and Thornthwaite's formulae have been used broadly in hydrological studies.) The results of calculations were used for ranking net infiltration, along with the aridity and precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) indexes, for future climatic scenarios. Using this approach, we determined a general trend of increasing net infiltration from the present-day (interglacial) climate to monsoon, intermediate (glacial transition), and then to the glacial climate. Ranking of the aridity and P-E indexes is practically the same as that of net infiltration. The validation of the computed net infiltration rates yielded a good match with other field and modeling study results of groundwater recharge and net infiltration evaluation

  4. Spatial modelling of mountainous basins; An integrated analysis of the hydrological cycle, climate change and agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Water is the most essential substance on earth and a changing climate has an important impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of water availability. Mountain ranges provide an important “water tower' function and over 20% of the global population depends on fresh water resources provided by

  5. Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array (MESA): a mesh sensor network for climate change research in remote mountainous environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, P. W.; Neal, D.; Frome, D.; Kavanagh, K.; Davis, A.; Gessler, P. E.; Hess, H.; Holden, Z. A.; Link, T. E.; Newingham, B. A.; Smith, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Developing sensor networks robust enough to perform unattended in the world's remote regions is critical since these regions serve as important benchmarks that lack anthropogenic influence. Paradoxically, the factors that make these remote, natural sites challenging for sensor networking are often what make them indispensable for climate change research. The MESA (Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array) project has faced these challenges and developed a wireless mesh sensor network across a 660 m topoclimatic gradient in a wilderness area in central Idaho. This sensor array uses advances in sensing, networking, and power supply technologies to provide near real-time synchronized data covering a suite of biophysical parameters used in ecosystem process models. The 76 sensors in the network monitor atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, humidity, air and soil temperature, soil water content, precipitation, incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation, snow depth, wind speed and direction, and leaf wetness at synchronized time intervals ranging from two minutes to two hours and spatial scales from a few meters to two kilometers. We present our novel methods of placing sensors and network nodes above, below, and throughout the forest canopy without using meteorological towers. In addition, we explain our decision to use different forms of power (wind and solar) and the equipment we use to control and integrate power harvesting. Further, we describe our use of the network to sense and quantify its own power use. Using examples of environmental data from the project, we discuss how these data may be used to increase our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem processes in mountainous environments. MESA sensor locations across a 700 m topoclimatic gradient at the University of Idaho Taylor Wilderness Research Station.

  6. Multi-Scale Influences of Climate, Spatial Pattern, and Positive Feedback on 20th Century Tree Establishment at Upper Treeline in the Rocky Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, G. P.

    2009-12-01

    The influences of 20th century climate, spatial pattern of tree establishment, and positive feedback were assessed to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad scale abiotic and local scale biotic components interact to govern upper treeline ecotonal dynamics along a latitudinal gradient (ca. 35°N-45°N) in the Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n = 22) were in the Bighorn, Medicine Bow, Front Range, and Sangre de Cristo mountain ranges. Dendroecological techniques were used for a broad scale analysis of climate at treeline. Five-year age-structure classes were compared with identical five-year bins of 20th century climate data using Spearman’s rank correlation and regime shift analysis. Local scale biotic interactions capable of ameliorating broad scale climate inputs through positive feedback were examined by using Ripley’s K to determine the spatial patterns of tree establishment above timberline. Significant correlations (p Medicine Bow and Sangre de Cristo Mountains primarily contain clustered spatial patterns of trees above timberline, which indicates a strong reliance on the amelioration of abiotic conditions through positive feedback with nearby vegetation. Although clustered spatial patterns likely originate in response to harsh abiotic conditions such as drought or constant strong winds, the local scale biotic interactions within a clustered formation of trees appears to override the immediate influence of broad scale climate. This is evidenced both by a lack of significant correlations between tree establishment and climate in these mountain ranges, as well as the considerable lag times between initial climate regime shifts and corresponding shifts in tree age structure. Taken together, this research suggests that the influence of broad scale climate on upper treeline ecotonal dynamics is contingent on the local scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. These findings have global implications for our

  7. Yucca Mountain Project: A summary of technical support activities, January 1987--June 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-05-01

    This report is a summary of the technical support activities of Mifflin ampersand Associates, Inc., during the 18-month period beginning 01 January 1987 and ending on 30 June 1988. It covers the following topics: Vadose zone drilling site selection, permits and quality assurance (QA) procedures; climate change; geochemistry, mineralogy; disturbed zone; hydrogeology; and review of technical documents. The report is organized by generally discussing each topic from the following perspectives: issue(s), objective(s) of activity, finding(s), interpretation of finding(s), additional work needed, recommended program, and existing program

  8. Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

    2007-01-01

    observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

  9. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Vincent M.; Loeschel, Andreas; Reilly, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO 2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost effective climate policy to include a combination of R and D subsidies and CO 2 emission constraints, although R and D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO 2 constraint (i.e. CO 2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that cost effectiveness of climate policy improves if it is differentiated between technologies. Even our rudimentary distinction between CO 2 intensive technologies and non-CO 2 intensive technologies lead to this result. Such differentiated climate policy encourages growth in the non-CO 2 intensive sectors and discourages growth in CO 2 intensive sectors by harnessing positive effects of technology externalities on total factor productivity in the former and letting the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R and D subsidies or combinations of both are used as climate policy instruments. (author)

  10. Shifting mountain snow patterns in a changing climate from remote sensing retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedieu, J P; Lessard-Fontaine, A; Ravazzani, G; Cremonese, E; Shalpykova, G; Beniston, M

    2014-09-15

    Observed climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on environmental systems and society. In this context, many mountain regions seem to be particularly sensitive to a changing climate, through increases in temperature coupled with changes in precipitation regimes that are often larger than the global average (EEA, 2012). In mid-latitude mountains, these driving factors strongly influence the variability of the mountain snow-pack, through a decrease in seasonal reserves and earlier melting of the snow pack. These in turn impact on hydrological systems in different watersheds and, ultimately, have consequences for water management. Snow monitoring from remote sensing provides a unique opportunity to address the question of snow cover regime changes at the regional scale. This study outlines the results retrieved from the MODIS satellite images over a time period of 10 hydrological years (2000-2010) and applied to two case studies of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, namely the upper Rhone and Po in Europe and the headwaters of the Syr Darya in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia). The satellite data were provided by the MODIS Terra MOD-09 reflectance images (NASA) and MOD-10 snow products (NSIDC). Daily snow maps were retrieved over that decade and the results presented here focus on the temporal and spatial changes in snow cover. This paper highlights the statistical bias observed in some specific regions, expressed by the standard deviation values (STD) of annual snow duration. This bias is linked to the response of snow cover to changes in elevation and can be used as a signal of strong instability in regions sensitive to climate change: with alternations of heavy snowfalls and rapid snow melting processes. The interest of the study is to compare the methodology between the medium scales (Europe) and the large scales (Central Asia) in order to overcome the limits of the applied methodologies and to improve their performances. Results show that the yearly snow cover

  11. Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan

    2008-08-01

    Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

  12. A 15,000 year record of vegetation and climate change from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott A. Mensing; John L. Korfmacher; Thomas Minckley; Robert C. Musselman

    2012-01-01

    Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,...

  13. Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.

  14. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  15. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  16. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  17. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE DESCRIPTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, A.M.

    2004-01-01

    The ''Yucca Mountain Site Description'' summarizes, in a single document, the current state of knowledge and understanding of the natural system at Yucca Mountain. It describes the geology; geochemistry; past, present, and projected future climate; regional hydrologic system; and flow and transport within the unsaturated and saturated zones at the site. In addition, it discusses factors affecting radionuclide transport, the effect of thermal loading on the natural system, and tectonic hazards. The ''Yucca Mountain Site Description'' is broad in nature. It summarizes investigations carried out as part of the Yucca Mountain Project since 1988, but it also includes work done at the site in earlier years, as well as studies performed by others. The document has been prepared under the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management quality assurance program for the Yucca Mountain Project. Yucca Mountain is located in Nye County in southern Nevada. The site lies in the north-central part of the Basin and Range physiographic province, within the northernmost subprovince commonly referred to as the Great Basin. The basin and range physiography reflects the extensional tectonic regime that has affected the region during the middle and late Cenozoic Era. Yucca Mountain was initially selected for characterization, in part, because of its thick unsaturated zone, its arid to semiarid climate, and the existence of a rock type that would support excavation of stable openings. In 1987, the United States Congress directed that Yucca Mountain be the only site characterized to evaluate its suitability for development of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel

  19. Treeline dynamics in response to climate change in the Min Mountains, southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhi-Jiang; Shen, Guo-Zhen; Tan, Liu-Yi; Kang, Dong-Wei; Wang, Meng-Jun; Kang, Wen; Guo, Wen-Xia; Zeppel, Melanie Jb; Yu, Qiang; Li, Jun-Qing

    2013-12-01

    Abies faxoniana is the dominant plant species of the forest ecosystem on the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the treeline is strongly defined by climate. The tree-ring chronologies and age structure of Abies faxoniana were developed in the treeline ecotones on the northwestern and southeastern aspects of the Min Mountains in the Wanglang Nature Reserve to examine the treeline dynamics of recent decades in response to climate change. On the northwestern aspect, correlation analysis showed that the radial growth was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in current January and monthly mean temperature in current April, but significantly and negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous August. On the southeastern aspect, the radial growth was significantly negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous July and August. The different responses of radial growth to climatic variability on both the aspects might be mainly due to the micro-environmental conditions. The recruitment benefited from the warm temperature in current April, July and September on the northwestern aspect. The responses of radial growth and recruitment to climatic variability were similar on the northwestern slope. Recruitment was greatly restricted by competition with dense bamboos on the southeastern aspect.

  20. The Multitrophic Effects of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat in Mountain Rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fell, Sarah C; Carrivick, Jonathan L; Brown, Lee E

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is driving the thinning and retreat of many glaciers globally. Reductions of ice-melt inputs to mountain rivers are changing their physicochemical characteristics and, in turn, aquatic communities. Glacier-fed rivers can serve as model systems for investigations of climate-change effects on ecosystems because of their strong atmospheric-cryospheric links, high biodiversity of multiple taxonomic groups, and significant conservation interest concerning endemic species. From a synthesis of existing knowledge, we develop a new conceptual understanding of how reducing glacier cover affects organisms spanning multiple trophic groups. Although the response of macroinvertebrates to glacier retreat has been well described, we show that there remains a relative paucity of information for biofilm, microinvertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. Enhanced understanding of whole river food webs will improve the prediction of river-ecosystem responses to deglaciation while offering the potential to identify and protect a wider range of sensitive and threatened species.

  1. The impact of climate change on ecosystem carbon dynamics at the Scandinavian mountain birch forest-tundra heath ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjögersten, Sofie; Wookey, Philip A

    2009-02-01

    Changes in temperature and moisture resulting from climate change are likely to strongly modify the ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity in high-latitude areas, both through vegetation shifts and via direct warming effects on photosynthesis and decomposition. This paper offers a synthesis of research addressing the potential impacts of climate warming on soil processes and carbon fluxes at the forest-tundra ecotone in Scandinavia. Our results demonstrated higher rates of organic matter decomposition in mountain birch forest than in tundra heath soils, with markedly shallower organic matter horizons in the forest. Field and laboratory experiments suggest that increased temperatures are likely to increase CO2 efflux from both tundra and forest soil providing moisture availability does not become limiting for the decomposition process. Furthermore, colonization of tundra heath by mountain birch forest would increase rates of decomposition, and thus CO2 emissions, from the tundra heath soils, which currently store substantial amounts of potentially labile carbon. Mesic soils underlying both forest and tundra heath are currently weak sinks of atmospheric methane, but the strength of this sink could be increased with climate warming and/or drying.

  2. Climate change and the development of mountain areas: what do we need to know and for what types of action?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Richard

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is today a reality at both the international and more local levels. Recent studies have focussed mainly on analysing the consequences of climate change. The present article seeks to examine and qualify the impact of climate change in the mountain areas of the Alps. A first line of enquiry concerns the changing level of danger in the mountain environment. Are mountain areas becoming more dangerous and, if so, in terms of what types of risks and to what degree? However, adopting an approach based on an analysis of natural hazards and their dynamics in response to climate change cannot ignore the economic activities and types of development that already exist in these areas. In this respect, the tourism economy is predominant in mountain regions. Its durability and vitality undoubtedly constitute a priority for local actors. It is not surprising therefore that the latter have set up strategies for adapting to climate change. For planners and decision-makers to ensure integrated approaches in dealing with climate change, it is important that the complex links between natural risks and the types of development in mountain areas are better understood, which calls for a more detailed analysis of the environment in terms of territorial vulnerability.Le changement climatique est aujourd’hui une réalité au niveau international comme à celui des territoires locaux. Les travaux récents mettent préférentiellement l’accent sur l’analyse des conséquences du changement climatique. Cet article se propose de questionner et de qualifier l’impact du changement climatique dans les territoires montagnards des Alpes. Un premier axe de réflexion concerne l’évolution de la dangerosité de la montagne. Une montagne plus dangereuse se profile-t-elle ? Selon quels types de risques et avec quelles intensités ? Cependant, l’approche des risques naturels et de leur dynamique face au changement climatique ne saurait occulter le type d

  3. Contrasting Climate Change Impact on River Flow from Glacierised Catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellicciotti, F.; Ragettli, S.; Immerzeel, W. W. W.

    2016-12-01

    Glaciers and glacierised catchments in mountainous regions react to a changing climate in different manners depending on climate and glacier characteristics. Despite the key role of mountain ranges as natural water towers, their hydrological balance and future changes in glacier runoff associated with climate warming remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere and hydrological processes. We use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high altitude observations and the latest CMIP5 climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on glaciers and runoff for two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites are projected to experience a strong decrease in glacier area, they show remarkably different hydrological responses. Icemelt is on a rising limb in Langtang at least until 2041-2050 and starts to decrease afterwards, while in Juncal icemelt was already beyond its tipping point at the beginning of the 21st century. This contrasting response can be explained by differences in the elevation distribution of the glaciers in the two regions. In Juncal, many glaciers are melting up to the highest elevations already during the reference period (2000-2010) and increasing melt rates due to higher air temperatures cannot compensate the loss of glacier area. In Langtang, large sections of the glaciers at high elevations are currently not exposed to melt, but will be in the future, thus compensating for the loss of glacier area at lower elevations. As a result of these changes and projected changes in precipitation, in Juncal runoff will sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In Langtang, future water

  4. YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE DESCRIPTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Simmons

    2004-04-16

    The ''Yucca Mountain Site Description'' summarizes, in a single document, the current state of knowledge and understanding of the natural system at Yucca Mountain. It describes the geology; geochemistry; past, present, and projected future climate; regional hydrologic system; and flow and transport within the unsaturated and saturated zones at the site. In addition, it discusses factors affecting radionuclide transport, the effect of thermal loading on the natural system, and tectonic hazards. The ''Yucca Mountain Site Description'' is broad in nature. It summarizes investigations carried out as part of the Yucca Mountain Project since 1988, but it also includes work done at the site in earlier years, as well as studies performed by others. The document has been prepared under the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management quality assurance program for the Yucca Mountain Project. Yucca Mountain is located in Nye County in southern Nevada. The site lies in the north-central part of the Basin and Range physiographic province, within the northernmost subprovince commonly referred to as the Great Basin. The basin and range physiography reflects the extensional tectonic regime that has affected the region during the middle and late Cenozoic Era. Yucca Mountain was initially selected for characterization, in part, because of its thick unsaturated zone, its arid to semiarid climate, and the existence of a rock type that would support excavation of stable openings. In 1987, the United States Congress directed that Yucca Mountain be the only site characterized to evaluate its suitability for development of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel.

  5. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-06-15

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

  6. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S.

    2008-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter μ ± 1σ), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha -1 ·year -1 . This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat boreal forests, was shown to be

  7. Collaborative Project. 3D Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow for High-Resolution Climate Models. Fast physics and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liou, Kuo-Nan [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-02-09

    Under the support of the aforementioned DOE Grant, we have made two fundamental contributions to atmospheric and climate sciences: (1) Develop an efficient 3-D radiative transfer parameterization for application to intense and intricate inhomogeneous mountain/snow regions. (2) Innovate a stochastic parameterization for light absorption by internally mixed black carbon and dust particles in snow grains for understanding and physical insight into snow albedo reduction in climate models. With reference to item (1), we divided solar fluxes reaching mountain surfaces into five components: direct and diffuse fluxes, direct- and diffuse-reflected fluxes, and coupled mountain-mountain flux. “Exact” 3D Monte Carlo photon tracing computations can then be performed for these solar flux components to compare with those calculated from the conventional plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer program readily available in climate models. Subsequently, Parameterizations of the deviations of 3D from PP results for five flux components are carried out by means of the multiple linear regression analysis associated with topographic information, including elevation, solar incident angle, sky view factor, and terrain configuration factor. We derived five regression equations with high statistical correlations for flux deviations and successfully incorporated this efficient parameterization into WRF model, which was used as the testbed in connection with the Fu-Liou-Gu PP radiation scheme that has been included in the WRF physics package. Incorporating this 3D parameterization program, we conducted simulations of WRF and CCSM4 to understand and evaluate the mountain/snow effect on snow albedo reduction during seasonal transition and the interannual variability for snowmelt, cloud cover, and precipitation over the Western United States presented in the final report. With reference to item (2), we developed in our previous research a geometric-optics surface-wave approach (GOS) for the

  8. Changes in mountain glacier systems and the distribution of main climatic parameters on the territory of Russia (second part of the XX -beginning of the XXI century).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, K.; Nosenko, G.; Popova, V.; Muraviev, A.; Nikitin, S.; Chernova, L.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are vital sources of water worldwide to many densely-populated regions. Most glaciers are now shrinking, resulting in variable water supplies and sustained sea level rise. Rapid glacier change threatens water, energy and food security. Further glacier mass loss is likely in response to recent climate change, driven by global increases in air temperatures and the production of atmospheric pollutants. However, high altitudes and rugged topography generate regional weather systems that complicate the investigation of the relationship between climate and glacier change. Predictive models need to move beyond the state-of-the-art to couple advanced climate models with accurate representations of glacier processes, and more detailed and reliable data describing the state of mountain glaciers are required to constrain these models, both from monitoring individual glaciers and regional remote-sensing observations. Glaciation exists on the territory of Russia for thousands of years. At present both mountain glaciers and continental ice sheets are present there. Continental ice sheets are located on islands and archipelagoes of Russian Arctic region and mountain glaciers are wide-spread on continental part of the country where it currently covers the area of about 3,480,000 km². Now there are 18 mountain glacier regions on the territory of Russia. We present recent data on glaciers state and changes in mountain regions of Russia based on remote sensing and in situ studies and distribution of main climatic parameters that affect the existence of glaciers: summer air temperature, winter precipitations and maximum value of snow thickness. Acknowledgements. This presentation includes the results of research project № 0148-2014-0007 of the Research Plan of the Institute of Geography, RAS and research project supported by the Russian Geographical Society (grant number 05/2017/RGS-RFBR).

  9. Recent Relationships of Tree Establishment and Climate in Alpine Treelines of the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, M. J.; Graumlich, L. J.; Maher, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    Changes in the forest structure of alpine-forest or treeline boundaries may be a significant climate response of mountainous regions in the near future. A particularly important point of climate sensitivity for treelines is the initial survival and establishment of tree seedlings - a demographic bottleneck that may be particularly suited to early detection of treeline responses to climate change. However, concise information on climate sensitivity of seedling establishment has come primarily from direct observations of seedlings over short time periods encompassing a few years. Dendrochronological approaches have revealed tree establishment patterns at more extensive time scales of decades to millenia, but at coarser temporal resolutions. Climate variations that most directly affect initial tree seedling establishment occur at annual or smaller time scales, and climate for seedlings is modulated by landscape factors such as neighboring plant cover. Our objective was to assess climate sensitivity of tree establishment at treeline at these finer temporal and spatial scales, with consideration of treeline features that alter the climate for seedlings. Our approach combined direct observations of seedling emergence and survival with dendrochronology of older seedlings and saplings that were still small and young enough (less than 25 years and 20 cm height) to allow detecting the year of establishment and associated factors. Surveys for subject seedlings and saplings were performed for 2 years across the gradient from forest into treeline alpine in the Beartooth, Teton, and Medicine Bow mountains of Wyoming USA. No seedlings or saplings were detected above the highest elevation adult trees or krummholz, but there were up to 0.3 seedlings per square meter in subalpine meadows close to forest (within the timberline zone) where changes in tree abundance appear possible in future decades. Correlations of establishment and summer temperature ranged from weak in whitebark

  10. Climate control on tree growth at the upper and lower treelines: a case study in the qilian mountains, tibetan plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Yang

    Full Text Available It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region's local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom. ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.. The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m. During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains.

  11. An Investigation of the Impacts of Climate and Environmental Change on Alpine Lakes in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, K. A.; Hundey, E. J.; Porinchu, D. F.

    2007-12-01

    Aquatic systems in alpine and sub-alpine areas of the western United States are potentially impacted by atmospheric pollution and climate change. Because these mountainous regions are an important water resource for the western United States, it is critical to monitor and protect these systems. The Uinta Mountains are an east- west trending mountain range located on the border between Utah, Wyoming and Colorado and downwind of the Wasatch Front, Utah, which is characterized by a rapidly expanding population, as well as mining and industry. This alpine area provides water to many areas in Utah, and contributes approximately nine percent of the water supply to the Upper Colorado River. Our research is focused on determining the impacts of climate change and pollution on alpine lakes in the Uinta Mountains. The results presented here are based on limnological measurements made at 64 Uinta Mountain lakes spanning a longitude gradient of one degree and an elevation gradient of 3000 feet. At each lake maximum depth, conductivity, salinity, pH, Secchi depth, temperature, alkalinity, and concentrations of major anions, cations and trace metals were measured. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was performed to determine relationships between these variables and to examine the variability of the values of these variables. Our results indicate that steep climate gradients related to elevation and longitude result in clear differences in limnological properties of the study sites, with high elevation lakes characterized by greater amounts of nitrate and nitrite compared to low elevation sites. As well, diatoms in these lakes indicate that many high elevation sites are mesotrophic to eutrophic, which is unexpected for such remote aquatic ecosystems. We hypothesize that elevated nitrate and nitrite levels at high elevation sites are related to atmospherically derived nitrogen, but are being exacerbated relative to lower elevation sites by greater snow cover and reduced plant

  12. Conditions and development case studies for mountainous deposits in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talgamer, B. L.; Franchuk, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    The article contains the materials on deposits development intensification under challenging climatic and mining conditions, including mountainous areas of Siberia. The exploitation case studies for mountainous deposits all over the world and in Russia have been described. The authors have been set out the factors impeding the development of such deposits, and the extent of mining and transportation equipment performance degradation is also indicated. There have been stated the characteristics and the description of one of the newly mountainous gold ore deposits in Siberia which is being developed at an altitude of 2684m. A number of specific factors concerning its development have also been introduced as well as the description of mining technologies engineered by Irkutsk National Research Technical University (IRNRTU) specialists. The depth and principal dimensions of the open pit together with the mining and transportation equipment and facilities have been justified. The prime cost analysis of mineral extraction has been made, which results showed the substantial growth in expenditures for the transportation of the overburden rocks and ores. In view of the above mentioned research, there appeared the necessity for the search of new and the enhancement of current transport vehicles and communications.

  13. Past and future landscape dynamics in pasture-woodlands of the Swiss Jura Mountains under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Peringer

    2013-09-01

    We present a refined version of the spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model WoodPaM with improved climate sensitivity of simulated vegetation. We investigate pasture-woodland dynamics by applying an innovative combination of retrospective simulations starting in the Middle Ages with prospective simulations following two climate change scenarios. The retrospective simulations demonstrate the strong dependency of the landscape mosaic on both climate and management. In high elevation mountain pastures, climate cooling during the Little Ice Age hindered simulated tree regeneration and reduced forage production of grasslands. Both led to an increase in open grassland and to a structural simplification of the landscape. In turn, climate warming afterwards showed the opposite effect. At lower elevations, high cattle stocking rates generally dominate simulated succession, leading to a slow development of quite homogenous landscapes whose structures are hardly affected by historical climate variability. Aerial photographs suggest that logging and windstorms critically shaped the current landscape, both homogenizing mosaic structures that emerge from selective grazing. Simulations of climate change scenarios suggest delayed but inevitable structural changes in the landscape mosaic and a temporary breakdown of the ecosystem service wood production. The population of currently dominating Norway spruce collapses due to simulated drought. Spruce is only slowly replaced either by beech under moderate warming or by Scots pine under extreme warming. In general, the shift in tree species dominance results in landscapes of less structural richness than today. In order to maintain the mosaic structure of pasture-woodlands, we recommend a future increase in cattle stocking on mountain pastures. The (re- introduction of mixed herds (cattle with horses, sheep, and goats could mitigate the simulated trend towards structural homogenization of the forest-grassland mosaic because

  14. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonnell, T.C.; Belyazid, S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Sverdrup, H.; Bowman, W.D.; Porter, E.M.

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  15. Effects of climate and geochemistry on soil organic matter stabilization and greenhouse gas emissions along altitudinal transects in different mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griepentrog, Marco; Bodé, Samuel; Boudin, Mathieu; Dercon, Gerd; Doetterl, Sebastian; Matulanya, Machibya; Msigwa, Anna; Vermeir, Pieter; Boeckx, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and soils are key compartments of the global carbon (C) cycle in terms of their potential to store or release significant amounts of C. This study is part of the interregional IAEA Technical Cooperation Project ``Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and its Effects on Soil and Water Resources in Polar and Mountainous Regions (INT5153)'' aiming to improve the understanding of climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) in fragile polar and high mountainous ecosystems at local and global scale for their better management and conservation. The project includes 13 benchmark sites situated around the world. Here we present novel data from altitudinal transects of three different mountain regions (Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania; Mount Gongga, China; Cordillera Blanca, Peru). All altitudinal transects cover a wide range of natural ecosystems under different climates and soil geochemistry. Bulk soil samples (four field replicates per ecosystem) were subjected to a combination of aggregate and particle-size fractionation followed by organic C, total nitrogen, stable isotope (13C, 15N) and radiocarbon (14C) analyses of all fractions. Bulk soils were further characterized for their geochemistry (Na, K, Ca, Mg, Al, Fe, Mn, Si, P) and incubated for 63 days to assess greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, NO, N2O). Further, stable C isotopic signature of CO2 was measured to determine the isotopic signature of soil respiration (using Keeling plots) and to estimate potential respiration sources. The following four ecosystems were sampled at an altitudinal transect on the (wet) southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro: savannah (920m), lower montane rain forests with angiosperm trees (2020m), upper montane cloud forest with gymnosperm trees (2680m), subalpine heathlands (3660m). Both forests showed highest C contents followed by subalpine and savannah. The largest part of SOC was found in particulate organic matter

  16. Impact of Quaternary Climate on Seepage at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.F. Whelan; J.B. Paces; L.A. Neymark; A.K. Schmitt; M. Grove

    2006-01-01

    Uranium-series ages, oxygen-isotopic compositions, and uranium contents were determined in outer growth layers of opal and calcite from 0.5- to 3-centimeter-thick mineral coatings hosted by lithophysal cavities in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the proposed site of a permanent repository for high-level radioactive waste. Micrometer-scale growth layering in the minerals was imaged using a cathodoluminescence detector on a scanning electron microscope. Determinations of the chemistry, ages, and delta oxygen-18 values of the growth layers were conducted by electron microprobe analysis and secondary ion mass spectrometry techniques at spatial resolutions of 1 to about 20 micrometers ((micro)m) and 25 to 40 micrometers, respectively. Growth rates for the last 300 thousand years (k.y.) calculated from about 300 new high-resolution uranium-series ages range from approximately 0.5 to 1.5 (micro)m/k.y. for 1- to 3-centimeter-thick coatings, whereas coatings less than about I-centimeter-thick have growth rates less than 0.5 (micro)m/k.y. At the depth of the proposed repository, correlations of uranium concentration and delta oxygen-18 values with regional climate records indicate that unsaturated zone percolation and seepage water chemistries have responded to changes in climate during the last several hundred thousand years

  17. Effects of Mountain Uplift and Climatic Oscillations on Phylogeography and Species Divergence in Four Endangered Notopterygium Herbs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khurram Shahzad

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Mountain uplift and climatic fluctuations are important driving forces that have affected the geographic distribution and population dynamics history of organisms. However, it is unclear how geological and climatic events might have affected the phylogeographic history and species divergence in high-alpine herbal plants. In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history and species differentiation of four endangered Notopterygium herbs on the high-altitude Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP and adjacent areas. We combined phylogeographic analysis with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in four Notopterygium species (N. incisum, N. franchetii, N. oviforme, and N. forrestii. In total, 559 individuals from 74 populations of the four species were analyzed based on three maternally inherited chloroplast fragments (matK, rbcL, and trnS-trnG and one nuclear DNA region (internal transcribed spacer, ITS. Fifty-five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA and 48 ITS haplotypes were identified in the four species. All of the cpDNA and ITS haplotypes were species-specific, except N. franchetii and N. oviforme shared one cpDNA haplotype, H32. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all four species formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, where N. franchetii and N. oviforme were sisters. In addition, each Notopterygium species generated an individual clade that corresponded to their respective species in the ITS tree. Population dynamics analyses and species distribution modeling showed that the two widely distributed herbs N. incisum and N. franchetii exhibited obvious demographic expansions during the Pleistocene ice ages. Molecular dating suggested that the divergence of the four Notopterygium species occurred approximately between 3.6 and 1.2 Mya, and it was significantly associated with recent extensive uplifts of the QTP. Our results support the hypothesis that mountain uplift and Quaternary climatic oscillations

  18. Climate Change Adaptation in the Carpathian Mountain Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Szalai, Sándor; Zingstra, Henk; Kőpataki, Éva; Beckmann, Andreas; Bos, Ernst; Civic, Kristijan; Hlásny, Tomas; Hulea, Orieta; Jurek, Matthias; Koch, Hagen; Kondor, Attila Csaba; Kovbasko, Aleksandra; Lakatos, M.; Lambert, Stijn; Peters, Richard; Trombik, Jiří; De Velde, Van Ilse; Zsuffa, István

    2016-01-01

    The Carpathian mountain region is one of the most significant natural refuges on the European continent. It is home to Europe’s most extensive tracts of montane forest, the largest remaining virgin forest and natural mountain beech-fir forest ecosystems. Adding to the biodiversity are semi-natural

  19. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cambell, C. G.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  20. Rapid response of alpine timberline vegetation to the Younger Dryas climate oscillation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reasoner, M.A.; Jodry, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    Paleobotanical records from two high-altitude (>3,300 m) sites in Colorado show a clear and immediate response to the Younger Dryas climate oscillation. The Black Mountain Lake and Sky Pond records indicate that alpine timberline migrated upslope to near-modern elevations during the late Bolling-Allerod (13.6--12.9 ka). Subsequent declines in arboreal pollen percentages and accumulation rates during the Younger Dryas interval (12.9--11.7 ka) reflect a downslope displacement of the alpine timberline ecotone of 60--120 m in elevation. This change translates to a cooling of summer temperature by ∼0.4--0.9 C and is consistent with proposed Younger Dryas advances of alpine glaciers in the Rocky Mountains to positions close to Little Ice Age maxima. Alpine timberline readvanced upslope to elevations above both sites between 11.7 and 11.4 ka. The concomitant response of temperature-sensitive alpine timberline vegetation in Colorado and late-glacial changes in North Atlantic thermohaline circulating implicates a rapid, widespread atmospheric transmission of the Younger Dryas climate oscillation

  1. Rapid response of alpine timberline vegetation to the Younger Dryas climate oscillation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reasoner, M.A.; Jodry, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    Paleobotanical records from two high-altitude (>3,300 m) sites in Colorado show a clear and immediate response to the Younger Dryas climate oscillation. The Black Mountain Lake and Sky Pond records indicate that alpine timberline migrated upslope to near-modern elevations during the late Bolling-Allerod (13.6--12.9 ka). Subsequent declines in arboreal pollen percentages and accumulation rates during the Younger Dryas interval (12.9--11.7 ka) reflect a downslope displacement of the alpine timberline ecotone of 60--120 m in elevation. This change translates to a cooling of summer temperature by {approximately}0.4--0.9 C and is consistent with proposed Younger Dryas advances of alpine glaciers in the Rocky Mountains to positions close to Little Ice Age maxima. Alpine timberline readvanced upslope to elevations above both sites between 11.7 and 11.4 ka. The concomitant response of temperature-sensitive alpine timberline vegetation in Colorado and late-glacial changes in North Atlantic thermohaline circulating implicates a rapid, widespread atmospheric transmission of the Younger Dryas climate oscillation.

  2. Carbon leakage revisited. Unilateral climate policy under directed technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maria, Corrado Di; Van derWerf, E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the consequences of unilateral climate policy in the presence of directed technical change. We develop a dynamic two-country model in which two otherwise identical countries differ in their environmental policy: one of the countries enforces a (binding) cap on emissions while the other does not. Focusing on carbon leakage, we show how, compared with a 'traditional' endogenous growth model, directed technical change will always lead to lower emissions in the unconstrained country. When clean and dirty goods are good substitutes, it may even be induced to reduce its emissions below the optimum level when both countries are unconstrained, so leakage is negative

  3. Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swetnam, Thomas W; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I; Liebmann, Matthew J; Falk, Donald A; Allen, Craig D

    2016-06-05

    Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Authors.

  4. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  5. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  6. [Responses of boreal forest landscape in northern Great Xing'an Mountains of Northeast China to climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Na; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Liang, Yu

    2012-12-01

    With the combination of forest landscape model (LANDIS) and forest gap model (LINKAGES), this paper simulated the effects of climate change on the boreal forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared the direct effects of climate change and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape. The results showed that under the current climate conditions and fire disturbances, the forest landscape in the study area could maintain its dynamic balance, and Larix gmelinii was still the dominant tree species. Under the future climate and fire disturbances scenario, the distribution area of L. gmelinii and Pinus pumila would be decreased, while that of Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana, Populus suaveolens, Chosenia arbutifolia, and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica would be increased, and the forest fragmentation and forest diversity would have an increase. The changes of the forest landscape lagged behind climate change. Climate warming would increase the growth of most tree species except L. gmelinii, while the increased fires would increase the distribution area of P. davidiana, P. suaveolens, and C. arbutifolia and decrease the distribution area of L. gmelinii, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, and P. pumila. The effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape were almost equal to the direct effects of climate change, and aggravated the direct effects of climate change on forest composition, forest landscape fragmentation, and forest landscape diversity.

  7. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

    2014-05-01

    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, -0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as -127 ‰, -16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply

  8. [Effect of artificial mountain climate on the functional state of higher regions of the central nervous system in man].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezovskiĭ, V A; Levashov, M I

    2009-01-01

    The study included 97 patients with vegetative vascular dystonia and chronic non-specific pulmonary diseases exposed to artificial high-altitude climate in an Orotron climatic chamber during 2 weeks. Atmospheric conditions maintained in the chamber had the following parameters: partial pressure of oxygen--147-160 gPa, relative humidity--60-70%, air temperature--16-18 degrees C, light aeroion content--up to 6000 cub.cm. It was shown that the exposure to artificial mountain climatic conditions enhanced functional mobility of nervous processes and decreased the length of the sensorimotor reactions of the patients. Individual differences in the change of parameters being measured depended on the degree of initial functional flexibility of nervous processes.

  9. Geo-Hazards and Mountain Road Development in Nepal: Understanding the Science-Policy-Governance Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Dahal, Vaskar

    2015-04-01

    The foothills of Nepalese Himalayas located in the neotectonic mountain environment are among some of the most unstable and geomorphologically dynamic landscapes in the world. Young fold mountains in this region are characterized by complex tectonics that influence the occurrence of earthquakes, while climatic processes such as intense orographic rainfall often dictate the occurrence of floods and landslides. Development of linear infrastructures, such as roads, in mountainous terrain characterized by high relief and orogeny is considerably challenging where the complexity of landscape in steep and irregular topography, difficult ground conditions and weak geology, presents engineers and planners with numerous difficulties to construct and maintain mountain roads. Whilst application of engineering geology, geomorphic interpretation of terrain in terms of physiography and hydrology, and identification of geo-hazards along the road corridor is critical for long term operation of mountain roads, low-cost arterial roads in the Himalayan foothills generally fail to incorporate standard road slope engineering structures. This research provides unique insights on policy and governance issues in developing mountainous countries such as Nepal, where achieving a sound balance between sustainability and affordability is a major challenge for road construction. Road development in Nepal is a complex issue where socio-economic and political factors influence the budget allocation for road construction in rural hilly areas. Moreover, most mountain roads are constructed without any geological or geo-technical site investigations due to rampant corruption and lack of adequate engineering supervision. Despite having good examples of rural road construction practices such as the Dharan-Dhankuta Road in Eastern Nepal where comprehensive terrain-evaluation methods and geo-technical surveys led to an improved understanding of road construction, learnings from this project have not

  10. Snow sublimation in mountain environments and its sensitivity to forest disturbance and climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexstone, Graham A.; Clow, David W.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Liston, Glen E.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Knowles, John F.; Penn, Colin A.

    2018-01-01

    Snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance, but the spatial and temporal variability of this process is not well understood in mountain environments. This study combines a process‐based snow model (SnowModel) with eddy covariance (EC) measurements to investigate (1) the spatio‐temporal variability of simulated snow sublimation with respect to station observations, (2) the contribution of snow sublimation to the ablation of the snowpack, and (3) the sensitivity and response of snow sublimation to bark beetle‐induced forest mortality and climate warming across the north‐central Colorado Rocky Mountains. EC‐based observations of snow sublimation compared well with simulated snow sublimation at stations dominated by surface and canopy sublimation, but blowing snow sublimation in alpine areas was not well captured by the EC instrumentation. Water balance calculations provided an important validation of simulated sublimation at the watershed scale. Simulated snow sublimation across the study area was equivalent to 28% of winter precipitation on average, and the highest relative snow sublimation fluxes occurred during the lowest snow years. Snow sublimation from forested areas accounted for the majority of sublimation fluxes, highlighting the importance of canopy and sub‐canopy surface sublimation in this region. Simulations incorporating the effects of tree mortality due to bark‐beetle disturbance resulted in a 4% reduction in snow sublimation from forested areas. Snow sublimation rates corresponding to climate warming simulations remained unchanged or slightly increased, but total sublimation losses decreased by up to 6% because of a reduction in snow covered area and duration.

  11. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  12. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  13. Unraveling Tropical Mountain Hydroclimatology by Coupling Autonomous Sensor Observations and Climate Modeling: Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Fernandez, A.; Mark, B. G.; Covert, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Northern Peru will face critical water resource issues in the near future as permanent ice retreats. Much of current global and regional climate research neglects the meteorological forcing of lapse rates and valley wind dynamics on critical components of the Peruvian Andes' water-cycle. In 2004 and 2005 we installed an autonomous sensor network (ASN) within the glacierized Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca (9°S), consisting of discrete, cost-effective, automatic temperature loggers located along the valley axis and anchored by two automatic weather stations. Comparisons of these embedded atmospheric measurements from the ASN and climate modeling (CM) by dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model elucidate distinct diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the mountain valley winds and lapse rates. Wind, temperature, humidity, and cloud simulations by WRF suggest that thermally driven valley winds converging with easterly flow aloft enhance late afternoon and evening cloud development which helps explain detected nocturnal precipitation maxima measured by the ASN. We attribute sustained evapotranspiration (ET), as estimated by the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model, to an abundance of glacial melt-water during the dry season and strong pre-noon solar heating during the wet season. Furthermore, the extreme diurnal variability of along-valley-axis lapse rates and valley wind detected from ground observations and confirmed by dynamical downscaling demonstrate the importance of realistic scale parameterizations of the boundary layer to improve regional CM projections in mountainous regions. Our findings portray ET as an integral yet poorly represented process in Andean hydroclimatology. We show that coupling ASN and CM can improve understanding of multi-scale atmospheric and associated hydrological processes in mountain valleys.

  14. [Climate-growth relationships of Picea koraiensis and causes of its recent decline in Xiaoxing' an Mountains, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Qi-chao; Wang, Xiao-chun; Xiao, Xing-wei

    2015-07-01

    Two tree-ring width chronologies of Picea koraiensis at two altitudes in Fenglin National Nature Reserve of Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China were developed by using dendrochronological methods. To identify main limiting factors of P. koraiensis radial growth at the two altitudes, the relationships between the chronologies and local temperature, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and large-scale climatic factors were investigated. Meanwhile, the reasons of P. koraiensis growth decline in recent years were also explored. Results showed that radial growth of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains was mainly limited by temperatures, especially by the minimum temperature in growing season, while the limiting effect of precipitation was relatively weak. Climate responses of P. koraiensis growth at the different altitudes showed significant differences. Radial growths of P. koraiensis at the low altitude were positively correlated with precipitation in the current growth season (June-September) and whole year, and negatively correlated with soil temperatures at different depths, especially at 80 cm depth in growing season. Meanwhile, it was signi-ficantly positively correlated with PDSI in growing season. However, the relationships between radial growth of P. koraiensis at the high altitude and precipitation, air and soil temperatures, and PDSI were not significant as that at the low altitude. Growth decline of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains could be related to the phase changes in Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the significant global warming since 1980. The coupling effects of the above changes might result in increased soil evaporation and exacerbated warming and drying phenomena, consequently causing the growth decline of P. koraiensis at the low altitude.

  15. Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. N. Wasserman; S. A. Cushman; A. S. Shirk; E. L. Landguth; J. S. Littell

    2012-01-01

    We utilize empirically derived estimates of landscape resistance to assess current landscape connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and project how a warming climate may affect landscape resistance and population connectivity in the future. We evaluate the influences of five potential future temperature scenarios...

  16. Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

    2016-01-01

    The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate

  17. Assessment of Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, Donald H.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steve W.; Leavesley, George H.; Leavitt, Peter R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, Jack A.

    1997-06-01

    The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month spring runoff period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow.Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forcing.Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as

  18. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  19. Assessing Climate-Induced Change in River Flow Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Process Modeling in High Mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Snow- and glacier-fed river systems originating from High Mountain Asia (HMA) support diverse ecosystems and provide the basis for food and energy production for more than a billion people living downstream. Climate-driven changes in the melting of snow and glaciers and in precipitation patterns are expected to significantly alter the flow of the rivers in the HMA region at various temporal scales, which in turn could heavily affect the socioeconomics of the region. Hence, climate change effects on seasonal and long-term hydrological conditions may have far reaching economic impact annually and over the century. We are developing a decision support tool utilizing integrated microwave remote sensing datasets, process modeling and economic models to inform water resource management decisions and ecosystem sustainability as related to the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region's response to climate change. The availability of consistent time-series microwave remote sensing datasets from Earth-orbiting scatterometers, radiometers and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery provides the basis for the observational framework of this monitoring system. We discuss the assembly, processing and application of scatterometer and SAR data sets from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and Sentinal-1 SARs, and the enlistment of these data to monitor seasonal melt and thaw status of glacier-dominated and surrounding regions. We present current status and future plans for this effort. Our team's study emphasizes processes and economic modeling within the Trishuli basin; our remote sensing analysis supports analyses across the HiMAT domain.

  20. Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

    2012-12-01

    Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

  1. Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons

  2. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  3. TSPA Model for the Yucca Mountain Unsaturated Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.L. Wilson; C.K. Ho

    2001-01-01

    Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being considered as a potential site for a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. Total-system performance-assessment (TSPA) calculations are performed to evaluate the safety of the site. Such calculations require submodels for all important engineered and natural components of the disposal system. There are five submodels related to the unsaturated zone: climate, infiltration, mountain-scale flow of water, seepage into emplacement drifts, and radionuclide transport. For each of these areas, models have been developed and implemented for use in TSPA. The climate model is very simple (a set of climate states have been deduced from paleoclimate data, and the times when climate changes occur in the future have been estimated), but the other four models make use of complex process models involving time-consuming computer runs. An important goal is to evaluate the impact of uncertainties (e.g., incomplete knowledge of the site) on the estimates of potential repository performance, so particular attention is given to the key uncertainties for each area. Uncertainties in climate, infiltration, and mountain-scale flow are represented in TSPA simulations by means of discrete high, medium, and low cases, Uncertainties in seepage and radionuclide transport are represented by means of continuous probability distributions for several key parameters

  4. Ecohydrologic process modeling of mountain block groundwater recharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magruder, Ian A; Woessner, William W; Running, Steve W

    2009-01-01

    Regional mountain block recharge (MBR) is a key component of alluvial basin aquifer systems typical of the western United States. Yet neither water scientists nor resource managers have a commonly available and reasonably invoked quantitative method to constrain MBR rates. Recent advances in landscape-scale ecohydrologic process modeling offer the possibility that meteorological data and land surface physical and vegetative conditions can be used to generate estimates of MBR. A water balance was generated for a temperate 24,600-ha mountain watershed, elevation 1565 to 3207 m, using the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) (Running and Hunt 1993). Input data included remotely sensed landscape information and climate data generated with the Mountain Climate Simulator (MT-CLIM) (Running et al. 1987). Estimated mean annual MBR flux into the crystalline bedrock terrain is 99,000 m(3) /d, or approximately 19% of annual precipitation for the 2003 water year. Controls on MBR predictions include evapotranspiration (radiation limited in wet years and moisture limited in dry years), soil properties, vegetative ecotones (significant at lower elevations), and snowmelt (dominant recharge process). The ecohydrologic model is also used to investigate how climatic and vegetative controls influence recharge dynamics within three elevation zones. The ecohydrologic model proves useful for investigating controls on recharge to mountain blocks as a function of climate and vegetation. Future efforts will need to investigate the uncertainty in the modeled water balance by incorporating an advanced understanding of mountain recharge processes, an ability to simulate those processes at varying scales, and independent approaches to calibrating MBR estimates. Copyright © 2009 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2009 National Ground Water Association.

  5. Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Seastedt, Timothy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Tomback, Diana; Garcia, Elizabeth; Bowen, Zachary H.; Logan, Jesse A.

    2013-01-01

    In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

  6. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  7. Effects of projected climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Becky K. Kerns

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We used autecological, paleoecological, and modeling information to explore the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, Oregon (USA. Although uncertainty exists about the exact nature of future vegetation change, we infer that the following are likely to occur by the end of the century: (1 dominance of ponderosa pine and sagebrush will increase in many locations, (2 the forest-steppe ecotone will move upward in latitude and elevation, (3 ponderosa pine will be distributed at higher elevations, (4 subalpine and alpine systems will be replaced by grass species, pine, and Douglas-fir, (5 moist forest types may increase under wetter scenarios, (6 the distribution and abundance of juniper woodlands may decrease if the frequency and extent of wildfire increase, and (7 grasslands and shrublands will increase at lower elevations. Tree growth in energy-limited landscapes (high elevations, north aspects will increase as the climate warms and snowpack decreases, whereas tree growth in water-limited landscapes (low elevations, south aspects will decrease. Ecological disturbances, including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and non-native species, which are expected to increase in a warmer climate, will affect species distribution, tree age, and vegetation structure, facilitating transitions to new combinations of species and vegetation patterns. In dry forests where fire has not occurred for several decades, crown fires may result in high tree mortality, and the interaction of multiple disturbances and stressors will probably exacerbate stress complexes. Increased disturbance will favor species with physiological and phenological traits that allow them to tolerate frequent disturbance. Keywords: Climate change, Disturbance, Vegetation, Wildfire

  8. Filling the Data Gaps in Mountain Climate Observatories Through Advanced Technology, Refined Instrument Siting, and a Focus on Gradients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scotty Strachan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The mountain research community is still contending with the need to monitor ecosystems, both to improve local management practices and to address regional and global science questions related to the Future Earth themes of Dynamic Planet, Global Sustainable Development, and Transformations Towards Sustainability. How such efforts may be designed and coordinated remains an open question. Historical climate and ecological observatories and networks typically have not represented the scope or spatial and topographic distribution of near-surface processes in mountains, creating knowledge gaps. Grassroots, in situ investigations have revealed the existence of topoclimates that are not linearly related to general atmospheric conditions, and are also not adequately represented in gridded model products. In this paper, we describe how some of the disconnects between data, models, and applications in mountains can be addressed using a combination of gradient monitoring, uniform observational siting and standards, and modern technology (cyberinfrastructure. Existing observational studies need to expand their topographic niches, and future observatories should be planned to span entire gradients. Use of cyberinfrastructure tools such as digital telemetry and Internet Protocol networks can reduce costs and data gaps while improving data quality control processes and widening audience outreach. Embracing this approach and working toward common sets of comparable measurements should be goals of emerging mountain observatories worldwide.

  9. Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

    2015-02-01

    Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Ground-Dwelling Arthropod Communities of a Sky Island Mountain Range in Southeastern Arizona, USA: Obtaining a Baseline for Assessing the Effects of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wallace M Meyer

    Full Text Available The few studies that have addressed past effects of climate change on species distributions have mostly focused on plants due to the rarity of historical faunal baselines. However, hyperdiverse groups like Arthropoda are vital to monitor in order to understand climate change impacts on biodiversity. This is the first investigation of ground-dwelling arthropod (GDA assemblages along the full elevation gradient of a mountain range in the Madrean Sky Island Region, establishing a baseline for monitoring future changes in GDA biodiversity. To determine how GDA assemblages relate to elevation, season, abiotic variables, and corresponding biomes, GDA were collected for two weeks in both spring (May and summer (September 2011 in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, using pitfall traps at 66 sites in six distinct upland (non-riparian/non-wet canyon biomes. Four arthropod taxa: (1 beetles (Coleoptera, (2 spiders (Araneae, (3 grasshoppers and crickets (Orthoptera, and (4 millipedes and centipedes (Myriapoda were assessed together and separately to determine if there are similar patterns across taxonomic groups. We collected 335 species of GDA: 192/3793 (species/specimens Coleoptera, 102/1329 Araneae, 25/523 Orthoptera, and 16/697 Myriapoda. GDA assemblages differed among all biomes and between seasons. Fifty-three percent (178 species and 76% (254 species of all GDA species were found in only one biome and during only one season, respectively. While composition of arthropod assemblages is tied to biome and season, individual groups do not show fully concordant patterns. Seventeen percent of the GDA species occurred only in the two highest-elevation biomes (Pine and Mixed Conifer Forests. Because these high elevation biomes are most threatened by climate change and they harbor a large percentage of unique arthropod species (11-25% depending on taxon, significant loss in arthropod diversity is likely in the Santa Catalina Mountains and other isolated

  11. Mountain Biking Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Majid; Nourian, Ruhollah; Khodaee, Morteza

    With the increasing popularity of mountain biking, also known as off-road cycling, and the riders pushing the sport into extremes, there has been a corresponding increase in injury. Almost two thirds of acute injuries involve the upper extremities, and a similar proportion of overuse injuries affect the lower extremities. Mountain biking appears to be a high-risk sport for severe spine injuries. New trends of injury patterns are observed with popularity of mountain bike trail parks and freeride cycling. Using protective gear, improving technical proficiency, and physical fitness may somewhat decrease the risk of injuries. Simple modifications in bicycle-rider interface areas and with the bicycle (bike fit) also may decrease some overuse injuries. Bike fit provides the clinician with postural correction during the sport. In this review, we also discuss the importance of race-day management strategies and monitoring the injury trends.

  12. Atmospheric Research and Public Outreach Activities at Grandfather Mountain, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, B.; Pope, J.; Kelly, G.; Sherman, J. P.; Taubman, B.

    2012-12-01

    Promoting scientific and public understanding of mountain meteorological processes, particularly in the context of climate variability and change, remains a formidable challenge. Mountain environments present considerable difficulties in the collection of surface and atmospheric observations due to complex topography and resulting high spatial and temporal variability of the atmospheric processes. A collaborative partnership between Appalachian State University (ASU) and the Grandfather Mountain Stewardship Foundation (GMSF) in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina has provided an outstanding opportunity to integrate atmospheric research and outreach activities. The NASA-funded Climate Action Network through Direct Observations and Outreach (CAN-DOO) project directly supports the research and education activities and places them in the context of climate variability and change. This paper introduces the manual observations and citizen science activities, automated meteorological measurements, and public outreach initiatives on Grandfather Mountain and presents preliminary findings. In support of project objectives, GMSF staff makes daily measurements of precipitation, snow water equivalent, snow depth, and aerosol optical depth, while also encouraging citizen scientists to participate in the daily meteorological measurements. Team members have developed real-time displays of meteorological conditions for the two main visitor's centers and website, and have also created interactive climate science public displays. ASU scientists and GMSF staff have worked together to install and operate two research-quality meteorological stations at 1609 m asl that measure temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, precipitation, and present weather. Preliminary results of research activities suggest that extreme wind gusts >50 m s -1 and severe icing due to riming and freezing rain are a frequent occurrence on Grandfather Mountain

  13. TECHNICAL ASPECTS RELATED TO THE APPLICATION OF SFM PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN HIGH MOUNTAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Scaioni

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Structure-from-Motion (SfM photogrammetry is a flexible and powerful tool to provide 3D point clouds describing the surface of objects. Due to the easy transportability and low-cost of necessary equipment with respect to laser scanning techniques, SfM photogrammetry has great potential to be applied in harsh high-mountain environment. Here point clouds and derived by-products (DEM’s, orthoimages, Virtual-Reality models are needed to document surface morphology and to investigate dynamic processes such as landslides, avalanches, river and soil erosion, glacier retreat. On the other hand, from both the literature and the direct experience of the authors, there are some technical issues that still deserve thorough investigations. The paper would like to address some open problems and suggest solutions, in particular on regards of the photogrammetric network design, the strategy for georeferencing the final products, and for their comparison within time. The discussion is documented with some examples, mainly from surveying campaigns at the Forni Glacier in Italian Alps.

  14. Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

  15. Using High-Resolution Future Climate Scenarios to Forecast Bromus tectorum Invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M.; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

  16. Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda M West

    Full Text Available National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass, which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park, Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211, current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2 and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

  17. Yucca Mountain Project bibliography, 1988--1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, J.J.

    1990-11-01

    This bibliography contains information on the Yucca Mountain Project that was added to the Department of Energy's Energy Data Base from January 1988 through December 1989. This supplement also includes a new section which provides information about publications on the Energy Data Base that were not sponsored by the project but have some relevance to it. The bibliography is categorized by principal project participating organization. Participant-sponsored subcontractor reports, papers, and articles are included in the sponsoring organization's list. Indexes are provided for Corporate Author, Personal Author, Subject, Contract Number, Report Number, Order Number Correlation, and Key Word in Context. All entries in the Yucca Mountain Project bibliographies are searchable online on the NNW database file. This file can be accessed through the Integrated Technical Information System (ITIS) of the US Department of Energy (DOE). Technical reports on the Yucca Mountain Project are on display in special open files at participating Nevada Libraries and in the Public Document Room of the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office, in Las Vegas

  18. CURRENT MICROBIOLOGICAL ASPECTS IN HIGH MOUNTAIN

    OpenAIRE

    KURT HANSELMANN; MUNTI YUHANA

    2006-01-01

    Remote and normally unpolluted high mountain lakes provide habitats with no or very limited anthropogenic influences and, therefore, their hydrodynamics are mostly regulated by the natural c onditions. Researches in high mountain lakes deal with measuring and modeling the response of the habitats to environmental changes especially correlated to acid deposition, pollutants influx and climatic variability. The microbial world has also become a focus in many studies of these extreme ecosystem...

  19. ARCOS Network: A Sustainable Mountain Development Hub for Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert Muvunankiko

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The African continent is endowed with mountains of high productivity, biodiversity, endemism, and cultural diversity. African mountain ecosystems play an important role in economic development, poverty alleviation, and environmental protection. However, climate change and extreme events, as well as human activities, alter the capacity of mountains to provide such services to millions of Africans who depend on them. Since the creation in 1995 of the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS, mountains have been at the core of its programs, and collaboration among stakeholders is a key aspect of its search for sustainable solutions to threats affecting African mountains.

  20. Forest Plant community changes during 1989-2007 in response to climate warming in the Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Gégout, J.C.; Dupouey, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    Question: How strong are climate warming-driven changes within mid-elevation forest communities? Observations of plant community change within temperate mountain forest ecosystems in response to recent warming are scarce in comparison to high-elevation alpine and nival ecosystems, perhaps...... reflecting the confounding influence of forest stand dynamics. Location: Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland). Methods: We assessed changes in plant community composition by surveying 154 Abies alba forest vegetation relevés (550-1,350 m a.s.l.) in 1989 and 2007. Over this period, temperatures increased...... while precipitation did not change. Correspondence analysis (CA) and ecological indicator values were used to measure changes in plant community composition. Relevés in even- and uneven-aged stands were analysed separately to determine the influence of forest stand dynamics. We also analysed changes...

  1. Characterizing the Evolution of the In-Drift Environment in a Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abraham Van Luik

    2004-01-01

    This presentation provides a high-level summary of the approach taken to achieve a conceptual understanding of the chemical environments likely to exist in the proposed Yucca Mountain repository after the permanent closure of the facility. That conceptual understanding was then made quantitative through laboratory and modeling studies. This summary gives an overview of the in-drift chemical environment modeling that was needed to evaluate a Yucca Mountain repository: it describes the geological, hydrological, and geochemical aspects of the chemistry of water contacting engineered barriers and includes a summary of the technical basis that supports the integration of this information into the total system performance assessment. In addition, it presents a description of some of the most important data and processes influencing the in-drift environment, and describes how data and parameter uncertainty are propagated through the modeling. Sources of data include: (1) external studies regarding climate changes; (2) site-specific studies of the structure of the mountain and the properties of its rock layers; (3) properties of dust in the mountain and investigations of the potential for deliquescence on that dust to create solutions above the boiling point of water; (4) obtaining thermal data from a comprehensive thermal test addressing coupled processes; and (5) modeling the evolution of the in-drift environment at several scales. Model validation is also briefly addressed

  2. [Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

    2017-01-01

    The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly

  3. Examining Dynamical Processes of Tropical Mountain Hydroclimate, Particularly During the Wet Season, Through Integration of Autonomous Sensor Observations and Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Fernandez, A.; Mark, B. G.; Covert, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Peru is facing imminent water resource issues as glaciers retreat and demand increases, yet limited observations and model resolution hamper understanding of hydrometerological processes on local to regional scales. Much of current global and regional climate studies neglect the meteorological forcing of lapse rates (LRs) and valley and slope wind dynamics on critical components of the Peruvian Andes' water-cycle, and herein we emphasize the wet season. In 2004 and 2005 we installed an autonomous sensor network (ASN) within the glacierized Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca (9°S), consisting of discrete, cost-effective, automatic temperature loggers located along the valley axis and anchored by two automatic weather stations. Comparisons of these embedded hydrometeorological measurements from the ASN and climate modeling by dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) elucidate distinct diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the mountain wind regime and LRs. Wind, temperature, humidity, and cloud simulations suggest that thermally driven up-valley and slope winds converging with easterly flow aloft enhance late afternoon and evening cloud development which helps explain nocturnal wet season precipitation maxima measured by the ASN. Furthermore, the extreme diurnal variability of along-valley-axis LR, and valley wind detected from ground observations and confirmed by dynamical downscaling demonstrate the importance of realistic scale parameterizations of the atmospheric boundary layer to improve regional climate model projections in mountainous regions. We are currently considering to use intermediate climate models such as ICAR to reduce computing cost and we continue to maintain the ASN in the Cordillera Blanca.

  4. Data Qualification Report: Precipitation and Surface Geology Data for Use on the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. Wilson

    2000-01-01

    The unqualified data addressed in this qualification report have been cited in an Analysis Model Report (AMR) to support the Site Recommendation in determining the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a repository for high-level radioactive waste. The unqualified data include precipitation volumes and surface geology maps The precipitation data consist of daily precipitation volumes measured at Yucca Mountain. The surface geology data include identification of the types and surface expressions of geologic units and associated structural features such as faults. These data were directly used in AMR U0010, Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates, ANL-NBS-HS-000032 (Hevesi et al. 2000), to estimate net infiltration into Yucca Mountain. This report evaluates the unqualified data within the context of supporting studies of this type for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The purpose of this report is to identify data that can be cited as qualified for use in technical products to support the YMP Site Recommendation and that may also be used to support the License Application. The qualified data may either be retained in the original Data Tracking Number (DTN) or placed in new DTNs generated as a result of the evaluation. The appropriateness and limitations (if any) of the data with respect to intended use are addressed in this report. In accordance with Attachment 1 of procedure AP-3.15Q, Rev. 02, Managing Technical Product Inputs, it has been determined that the unqualified precipitation and surface geology data are not used in the direct calculation of Principal Factors for postclosure safety or disruptive events. References to tables, figures, and sections from Hevesi et al. (2000) are based on Rev. 00 of that document

  5. Impacts of climatic and atmospheric changes on carbon dynamics in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chi; Tian Hanqin; Chappelka, Arthur H.; Ren Wei; Chen Hua; Pan Shufen; Liu Mingliang; Styers, Diane M.; Chen Guangsheng; Wang Yuhang

    2007-01-01

    We used the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate carbon (C) storage and to analyze the impacts of environmental changes on C dynamics from 1971 to 2001 in Great Smoky Mountain National Park (GRSM). Our simulation results indicate that forests in GRSM have a C density as high as 15.9 kg m -2 , about twice the regional average. Total carbon storage in GRSM in 2001 was 62.2 Tg (T = 10 12 ), 54% of which was in vegetation, the rest in the soil detritus pool. Higher precipitation and lower temperatures in the higher elevation forests result in larger total C pool sizes than in forests at lower elevations. During the study period, the CO 2 fertilization effect dominated ozone and climatic stresses (temperature and precipitation), and the combination of these multiple factors resulted in net accumulation of 0.9 Tg C in this ecosystem. - Model simulations suggest that rising atmospheric CO 2 compensates for the adverse effects of ozone stress on ecosystem carbon dynamics in Great Smoky Mountain National Park

  6. Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential

  7. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  8. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

    1986-01-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters

  9. [Simulating climate change effect on aboveground carbon sequestration rates of main broadleaved trees in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains area, Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Bu, Rencang; Deng, Hua-Wei; Hu, Yuan-Man; Qin, Qin; Han, Feng-Lin

    2014-09-01

    LANDIS Pro 7.0 model was used to simulate the dynamics of aboveground biomass of ten broadleaved tree species in the Xiao Xing' an Mountains area under current and various climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2200, and carbon content coefficients (CCCs) were coupled to cal- culate the aboveground carbon sequestration rates (ACSRs) of these species. The results showed that in the initial year of simulation, the biomasses and their proportions of Fraxinus mandshurica, Phellodendron amurense, Quercus mongolica, Ulmus propinqua, and Acer mono were relatively low, while those of Betula costata, Betula platyphylla, and Populus davidiana were higher. A trend of rise after decline occurred in ACSR for pioneer species in the mid and late periods of simulation years, but ACSRs for the other broadleaved tree species were considerably complex. The ACSRs of Q. mongolica and Tilla amurensis fluctuated in the ranges of -0.05-0.25 t · hm(-2) · 10 a(-1) and 0.16-1.29 t · hm(-2) · 10 a(-1) in simulation years, respectively. The ACSRs of F. mandshurica, U. propinqua, A. mono, and B. costata showed a trend of decline after rise in late simulation years. There were significant differences in ACSR for P. amurense and B. davurica among various climate change scenarios in the periods of 2050-2100 and 2150-2200, while no significant difference in ACSR for the other species would be detected. Difference of sensitivity of various species in ACSR for future climate scenarios in the Small Khingan Mountains area existed. However, the un- certainty of future climates would not yield significant difference in ACSR for most broadleaved tree species. Moreover, a time lag would exist in the process of climate change effects on temperate forest's ACSR.

  10. Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aini, M.S.; Chan, S.C.; Syuhaily, O.

    2013-01-01

    Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

  11. Potential effects of climate change on riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen A. Dwire

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems, which are found at all elevations throughout the Blue Mountains, comprise a small portion of the landscape but have high conservation value because they provide habitat for diverse flora and fauna. The effects of climate change on these special habitats may be especially profound, due to altered snowpack and hydrologic regimes predicted to occur in the near future. The functionality of many riparian areas is currently compromised by water diversions and livestock grazing, which reduces their resilience to additional stresses that a warmer climate may bring. Areas associated with springs and small streams will probably experience near-term changes, and some riparian areas and wetlands may decrease in size over time. A warmer climate and reduced soil moisture could lead to a transition from riparian hardwood species to more drought tolerant conifers and shrubs. Increased frequency and spatial extent of wildfire spreading from upland forests could also affect riparian species composition. The specific effects of climate change will vary, depending on local hydrology (especially groundwater, topography, streamside microclimates, and current conditions and land use. Keywords: Climate change, Groundwater-dependent ecosystems, Riparian areas, Springs, Wetlands

  12. Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Shiyan; Song, Genxin; Qin, Yaochen; Ye, Xinyue; Lee, Jay

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.

  13. Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyan Zhai

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.

  14. Modelling the International Climate Change Negotiations: A Non-Technical Outline of Model Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Underdal, Arild

    1997-12-31

    This report discusses in non-technical terms the overall architecture of a model that will be designed to enable the user to (1) explore systematically the political feasibility of alternative policy options and (2) to determine the set of politically feasible solutions in the global climate change negotiations. 25 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Phylogeographic patterns of the Aconitum nemorum species group (Ranunculaceae) shaped by geological and climatic events in the Tianshan Mountains and their surroundings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao-Long Jiang; Ming-Li Zhang; Hong-Xiang Zhang; Stewart C. Sanderson

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the impacts of ancient geological and climatic events on the evolutionary history of the Aconitum nemorum species group, including A. nemorum s. str., A. karakolicum, and A. soongoricum; a total of 18 natural populations with 146 individuals were sampled, mainly from grassy slopes or the coniferous forest understory of the Tianshan Mountain Range and its...

  16. Effect of climatic change and afforestation on water yield in the Rocky Mountain Area of North China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: We studied effects of climatic variability and afforestation on water yield to make a quantitative assessment of the hydrological effects of afforestation on basin water yield in the Rocky Mountain Area of North China. Area of study: Seven typical forest sub-watersheds in Chaobai River watershed, located near Beijing’s Miyun Reservoir, were selected as our study object. Material and methods: Annual water yield model and Separate evaluation method were applied to quantify the respective contributions of changes in climate and different vegetation types on variations in runoff. Main results: Statistical analysis indicated precipitation did not vary significantly whereas the annual runoff decreased significantly in the past decades. Although forest increased significantly in the late 20th century, climatic variations have the strongest contribution to the reductions in runoff, with the average contribution reaching 63.24%, while the remainder caused by human activities. Afforestation has a more positive impact on the reduction in runoff, with a contribution of 65.5%, which was more than the grassland of 17.6% and the farmland of 16.9%. Research highlights: Compared to the impact of climatic change, we believe the large-scale afforestation may not be the main reason for the reductions in basin water yield.

  17. Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Sproles

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of projected temperature increases on maritime mountain snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin (MRB; 3041 km2 in the Cascades Mountains of Oregon, USA. We simulated the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE in the MRB for the period of 1989–2009 with SnowModel, a spatially-distributed, process-based model (Liston and Elder, 2006b. Simulations were evaluated using point-based measurements of SWE, precipitation, and temperature that showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients of 0.83, 0.97, and 0.80, respectively. Spatial accuracy was shown to be 82% using snow cover extent from the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The validated model then evaluated the inter- and intra-year sensitivity of basin wide snowpack to projected temperature increases (2 °C and variability in precipitation (±10%. Results show that a 2 °C increase in temperature would shift the average date of peak snowpack 12 days earlier and decrease basin-wide volumetric snow water storage by 56%. Snowpack between the elevations of 1000 and 2000 m is the most sensitive to increases in temperature. Upper elevations were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Temperature increases are the primary driver of diminished snowpack accumulation, however variability in precipitation produce discernible changes in the timing and volumetric storage of snowpack. The results of this study are regionally relevant as melt water from the MRB's snowpack provides critical water supply for agriculture, ecosystems, and municipalities throughout the region especially in summer when water demand is high. While this research focused on one watershed, it serves as a case study examining the effects of climate change on maritime snow, which comprises 10% of the Earth's seasonal snow cover.

  18. Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the USA: Understanding Complex Systems Mechanisms through Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Koo, Kyung; Patten, Bernard; Madden, Marguerite

    2015-01-01

    Alpine, subalpine and boreal tree species, of low genetic diversity and adapted to low optimal temperatures, are vulnerable to the warming effects of global climate change. The accurate prediction of these species’ distributions in response to climate change is critical for effective planning and management. The goal of this research is to predict climate change effects on the distribution of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), eastern USA. Clim...

  19. A mountain-scale model for characterizing unsaturated flow and transport in fractured tuffs of Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yu-Shu; Lu, Guoping; Zhang, Keni; Bodvarsson, G.S.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a large-scale modeling study characterizing fluid flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the proposed underground repository site for storing high-level radioactive waste. The modeling study is conducted using a three-dimensional numerical model, which incorporates a wide variety of field data and takes into account the coupled processes of flow and transport in Yucca Mountain's highly heterogeneous, unsaturated, fractured porous rock. The modeling approach is based on a dual-continuum formulation. Using different conceptual models of unsaturated flow, various scenarios of current and future climate conditions and their effects on the unsaturated zone are evaluated to aid in the assessment of the repository's system performance. These models are calibrated against field-measured data. Model-predicted flow and transport processes under current and future climates are discussed

  20. Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

  1. Predicting Plant-Accessible Water in the Critical Zone: Mountain Ecosystems in a Mediterranean Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, P. Z.; Goulden, M.; Riebe, C. S.; Tague, C.; O'Geen, A. T.; Flinchum, B. A.; Safeeq, M.; Conklin, M. H.; Hart, S. C.; Asefaw Berhe, A.; Hartsough, P. C.; Holbrook, S.; Bales, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Enhanced understanding of subsurface water storage, and the below-ground architecture and processes that create it, will advance our ability to predict how the impacts of climate change - including drought, forest mortality, wildland fire, and strained water security - will take form in the decades to come. Previous research has examined the importance of plant-accessible water in soil, but in upland landscapes within Mediterranean climates the soil is often only the upper extent of subsurface water storage. We draw insights from both this previous research and a case study of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory to: define attributes of subsurface storage, review observed patterns in its distribution, highlight nested methods for its estimation across scales, and showcase the fundamental processes controlling its formation. We observe that forest ecosystems at our sites subsist on lasting plant-accessible stores of subsurface water during the summer dry period and during multi-year droughts. This indicates that trees in these forest ecosystems are rooted deeply in the weathered, highly porous saprolite, which reaches up to 10-20 m beneath the surface. This confirms the importance of large volumes of subsurface water in supporting ecosystem resistance to climate and landscape change across a range of spatiotemporal scales. This research enhances the ability to predict the extent of deep subsurface storage across landscapes; aiding in the advancement of both critical zone science and the management of natural resources emanating from similar mountain ecosystems worldwide.

  2. What can we learn from fluvial incision in high mountains?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Margret; Gloaguen, Richard; Krbetschek, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    High and actively deforming mountain ranges attract the attention of geoscientists as they provide natural laboratories of fast evolving process-response systems. Tectonic compressional settings, often linked to perpendicular extension, control the topographic growth and hence, erosion, transport pathways and sedimentation. High altitude differences within short horizontal distances promote material re-organisation and high rates of surface processes. Furthermore, high mountains constitute orographic barriers that affect atmospheric circulations as well as host different climate regimes similar to those of widely separated latitudinal belts. Both cause a high sensitivity of surface processes to changes in climatic conditions. However, feedbacks between climatic and tectonic forcing are complex. Additionally, the dominance of one or the other varies in space and also over time, inheriting various traces of the paleo-morphodynamic conditions to the subsequent process regimes. To unravel the forces driving the evolution of relief in active mountains, numerous studies employ the drainage network of the corresponding mountains as a proxy of landscape evolution. Especially the rates of river incision provide a powerful tool to characterize the surface response and infer causes behind it. Several parameters of river incision are available to describe the fluvial incision at individual sites (e.g. terrace incision rates), along the river course (e.g. longitudinal river profiles, Hack index) and in its perpendicular dimension (e.g. valley cross sections, valley shape ratios). But they require careful interpretation. They are sensitive to both, climatic and tectonic forcing. Therefore, the synopsis of such indices for fluvial incision is essential to evaluate the role of climatic versus tectonic forcing. Here, we use the Panj river system, the major river draining the Pamir mountains of Central Asia, as an example. The Panj experiences high altitude changes of more than 4000

  3. Assessing socio-technical mindsets: Public deliberations on carbon capture and storage in the context of energy sources and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einsiedel, Edna F.; Boyd, Amanda D.; Medlock, Jennifer; Ashworth, Peta

    2013-01-01

    The adaptation and transition to new configurations of energy systems brought on by challenges of climate change, energy security, and sustainability have encouraged more integrative approaches that bring together the social and technical dimensions of technology. The perspectives of energy systems and climate change play an important role in the development and implementation of emerging energy technologies and attendant policies on greenhouse gas reduction. This research examines citizens’ views on climate change and a number of energy systems, with a specific focus on the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a technology to address greenhouse gas emissions. An all-day workshop with 82 local participants was held in the city of Calgary in Alberta, Canada to explore the views of climate change, energy and CCS. Participants were provided the opportunity to ask experts questions and discuss in small groups their views of climate change policy and energy systems. Results demonstrate that participants’ assessments of energy systems are influenced by social–political–institutional–economic contexts such as trust in industry and government, perception of parties benefiting from the technology, and tradeoffs between energy systems. We discuss our findings in the context of understanding social learning processes as part of socio-technical systems change. - Highlight: ► Energy systems are judged in the context of wider socio-technical system dimensions. ► Skepticism about climate change may affect support for CCS. ► Concerns about CCS include: CO 2 leaks, accuracy of monitoring and costs.

  4. MOUNTAIN-SCALE COUPLED PROCESSES (TH/THC/THM) MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y.S. Wu

    2005-01-01

    This report documents the development and validation of the mountain-scale thermal-hydrologic (TH), thermal-hydrologic-chemical (THC), and thermal-hydrologic-mechanical (THM) models. These models provide technical support for screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) related to the effects of coupled TH/THC/THM processes on mountain-scale unsaturated zone (UZ) and saturated zone (SZ) flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174842], Section 2.1.1.1). The purpose and validation criteria for these models are specified in ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Coupled Processes (Mountain-Scale TH/THC/THM, Drift-Scale THC Seepage, and Drift-Scale Abstraction) Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174842]). Model results are used to support exclusion of certain FEPs from the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) model on the basis of low consequence, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.342 [DIRS 173273]. Outputs from this report are not direct feeds to the TSPA-LA. All the FEPs related to the effects of coupled TH/THC/THM processes on mountain-scale UZ and SZ flow are discussed in Sections 6 and 7 of this report. The mountain-scale coupled TH/THC/THM processes models numerically simulate the impact of nuclear waste heat release on the natural hydrogeological system, including a representation of heat-driven processes occurring in the far field. The mountain-scale TH simulations provide predictions for thermally affected liquid saturation, gas- and liquid-phase fluxes, and water and rock temperature (together called the flow fields). The main focus of the TH model is to predict the changes in water flux driven by evaporation/condensation processes, and drainage between drifts. The TH model captures mountain-scale three-dimensional flow effects, including lateral diversion and mountain-scale flow patterns. The mountain-scale THC model evaluates TH effects on water and gas

  5. MOUNTAIN-SCALE COUPLED PROCESSES (TH/THC/THM)MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y.S. Wu

    2005-08-24

    This report documents the development and validation of the mountain-scale thermal-hydrologic (TH), thermal-hydrologic-chemical (THC), and thermal-hydrologic-mechanical (THM) models. These models provide technical support for screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) related to the effects of coupled TH/THC/THM processes on mountain-scale unsaturated zone (UZ) and saturated zone (SZ) flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174842], Section 2.1.1.1). The purpose and validation criteria for these models are specified in ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Coupled Processes (Mountain-Scale TH/THC/THM, Drift-Scale THC Seepage, and Drift-Scale Abstraction) Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174842]). Model results are used to support exclusion of certain FEPs from the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) model on the basis of low consequence, consistent with the requirements of 10 CFR 63.342 [DIRS 173273]. Outputs from this report are not direct feeds to the TSPA-LA. All the FEPs related to the effects of coupled TH/THC/THM processes on mountain-scale UZ and SZ flow are discussed in Sections 6 and 7 of this report. The mountain-scale coupled TH/THC/THM processes models numerically simulate the impact of nuclear waste heat release on the natural hydrogeological system, including a representation of heat-driven processes occurring in the far field. The mountain-scale TH simulations provide predictions for thermally affected liquid saturation, gas- and liquid-phase fluxes, and water and rock temperature (together called the flow fields). The main focus of the TH model is to predict the changes in water flux driven by evaporation/condensation processes, and drainage between drifts. The TH model captures mountain-scale three-dimensional flow effects, including lateral diversion and mountain-scale flow patterns. The mountain-scale THC model evaluates TH effects on

  6. Winter climate variability and classification in the Bulgarian Mountainous Regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petkova, Nadezhda; Koleva, Ekaterina

    2004-01-01

    The problems of snowiness and thermal conditions of winters are of high interest of investigations because of the more frequent droughts, occurred in the region. In the present study an attempt to reveal tendencies existing during the last 70 years of 20 th century in the course winter precipitation and,temperature as well as in some of the snow cover parameters. On the base of mean winter air temperature winters in the Bulgarian mountains were analyzed and classified. The main results of the study show that winter precipitation has decrease tendencies more significant in the highest parts of the mountains. On the other hand winter air temperature increases. It shows a relatively well-established maximum at the end of the studied period. In the Bulgarian mountains normal winters are about 35-40% of all winters. (Author)

  7. Observing Semi-Arid Ecoclimates across Mountain Gradients in the Great Basin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, Scotty

    Observation of climate and ecohydrological variables in mountain systems is a necessary (if challenging) endeavor for modern society. Water resources are often intimately tied to mountains, and high elevation environments are frequently home to unique landscapes and biota with limited geographical distributions. This is especially true in the temperate and semi-arid mountains of the western United States, and specifically the Great Basin. Stark contrasts in annual water balance and ecological populations are visible across steep elevational gradients in the region; and yet the bulk of our historical knowledge of climate and related processes comes from lowland observations. Interpolative models that strive to estimate conditions in mountains using existing datasets are often found to be inaccurate, making future projections of mountain climate and ecosystem response suspect. This study details the results of high-resolution topographically-diverse ecohydrological monitoring, and describes the character and seasonality of basic climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation as well as their impact on soil moisture and vegetation during the 2012-2015 drought sequence. Relationships of topography (elevation/aspect) to daily and seasonal temperatures are shown. Tests of the PRISM temperature model are performed at the large watershed scale, revealing magnitudes, modes, and potential sources of bias that could dramatically affect derivative scientific conclusions. A new method of precipitation phase partitioning to detect and quantify frozen precipitation on a sub-daily basis is described. Character of precipitation from sub-daily to annual scales is quantified across all major Great Basin vegetation/elevation zones, and the relationship of elevation to precipitation phase, intensity, and amount is explored. Water-stress responses of Great Basin conifers including Pinus flexilis, Pinus longaeva, and Pinus ponderosa are directly observed, showing potential

  8. Mountain-climbing bears protect cherry species from global warming through vertical seed dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naoe, Shoji; Tayasu, Ichiro; Sakai, Yoichiro; Masaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Kazuki; Nakajima, Akiko; Sato, Yoshikazu; Yamazaki, Koji; Kiyokawa, Hiroki; Koike, Shinsuke

    2016-04-25

    In a warming climate, temperature-sensitive plants must move toward colder areas, that is, higher latitude or altitude, by seed dispersal [1]. Considering that the temperature drop with increasing altitude (-0.65°C per 100 m altitude) is one hundred to a thousand times larger than that of the equivalent latitudinal distance [2], vertical seed dispersal is probably a key process for plant escape from warming temperatures. In fact, plant geographical distributions are tracking global warming altitudinally rather than latitudinally, and the extent of tracking is considered to be large in plants with better-dispersed traits (e.g., lighter seeds in wind-dispersed plants) [1]. However, no study has evaluated vertical seed dispersal itself due to technical difficulty or high cost. Here, we show using a stable oxygen isotope that black bears disperse seeds of wild cherry over several hundred meters vertically, and that the dispersal direction is heavily biased towards the mountain tops. Mountain climbing by bears following spring-to-summer plant phenology is likely the cause of this biased seed dispersal. These results suggest that spring- and summer-fruiting plants dispersed by animals may have high potential to escape global warming. Our results also indicate that the direction of vertical seed dispersal can be unexpectedly biased, and highlight the importance of considering seed dispersal direction to understand plant responses to past and future climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  10. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change

  11. Peculiarities of high-altitude landscapes formation in the Small Caucasus mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana

    2014-05-01

    Various mountain systems differ in character of landscapes and soil. Basic problem of present research: conditions and parameters determining the development of various landscapes and soils in mountain areas. Our research object is the area of Armenia where Small Caucasus, a part of Armenian upland is located. The specific character of the area is defined by the whole variety of all mountain structures like fold, block folding mountain ridges, volcanic upland, individual volcanoes, and intermountain depressions. As for the climate, the area belongs to dry subtropics. We have studied the peculiarities of high-altitude landscapes formation and mountain river basins development. We have used remote sensing data and statistic database of climatic parameters in this research. Field observations and landscape pictures analysis of space images allow distinguishing three types of mountain geosystems clearly: volcanic massifs, fold mountainous structures and closed high mountain basins - area of the lakes. The distribution of precipitation according to altitude shows some peculiarities. It has been found that due to this factor the investigated mountain area may be divided into three regions: storage (fold) mountainous area; Ararat volcanic area (southern macro exposure); closed high mountainous basin-area of the lake Sevan. The mountainous nature-climatic vertical landscapes appear to be horizontally oriented and they are more or less equilibrium (stable) geosystems, where the stable functional relationship between the landscape components is formed. Within their limits, definite bioclimatic structure of soil is developed. Along the slopes of fold mountains specific landscape shapes like litho-drainage basins are formed. They are intensively developing like relatively independent vertical geosystems. Mechanism of basin formation is versatile resulting in formation of the polychronous soil mantle structure. Landscapes and soils within the basin are of a different age, since

  12. Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change. Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, R.J.T.; Nicholls, R.J.; Mimura, Nobuo

    1999-01-01

    This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual, and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the 'technical' options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adaptation framework involving four steps is suggested, including (1) information collection and awareness raising; (2) planning and design; (3) implementation, and (4) monitoring and evaluation. The incomplete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject. 46 refs

  13. Litigation Technical Support and Services, Rocky Mountain Arsenal

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-01

    34 d V) W C > - d) 4- -~ 0 - - .4 ..- di L *..L 3~1 3-~ v mi a- a t - --- w- Vdi 4 - ý 0 -4 0 m~ -j m0 m’ .- us 0 Ill i to -v .4 I 4 1 t A ~ 3Ul t -4...2060. Marlow, D. J. 1979g, November 8. Pest control report, October 1979. Rocky Mountain Arsenal. Microfilm RMA182, Franes 2048 -2053 Marlow, D. J

  14. Mid-late Holocene climate and vegetation in northeastern part of the Altai Mountains recorded in Lake Teletskoye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudaya, Natalia; Nazarova, Larisa; Novenko, Elena; Babich, Valery; Kalugin, Ivan; Daryin, Andrei

    2015-04-01

    We report the first high-resolution (with intervals ca. 20-50 years) late-Holocene (4200 yr BP) pollen record from Lake Teletskoye, Altai Mountains, obtained from the underwater Ridge of Sofia Lepneva in 2006 (core Tel 2006). The study presents (i) the results of palynological analysis of Tel 2006; (ii) the results of spectral analysis of natural cycles based on the periodical fluctuation of taiga-biome curve; and (iii) quantitative reconstructions of the late-Holocene regional vegetation, woody coverage and climate in northern part of the Altai Mountains in order to define place of Northeast Altai on the map of the late-Holocene Central Asian environmental history. Late Holocene vegetation of the northeastern part of Altai recorded in Tel 2006 core is characterized by spread of dark-coniferous forest with structure similar to modern. Dominant trees, Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and Siberian fir (Abies sibirica), are the most ecological sensitive taxa between Siberian conifers (Shumilova, 1962), that as a whole suggests mild and humid climatic conditions during last 4200 years. However, changes of pollen taxa percentages and results of numerical analysis reveal pronounced fluctuation of climate and vegetation. Relatively cool and dry stage occurred prior to ca. 3500 cal yr BP. Open vegetation was widespread in the region with maximum deforestation and minimal July temperatures between 3800-3500 cal yr BP. Steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae could grow on the open sites around Lake Teletskoye. Reconstructed woody coverage is very low and varies between 29-35%. After ca. 3500 cal yr BP the area of dark-coniferous mountain taiga has significantly enlarged with maximums of woody coverages and taiga biome scores between ca. 2470-1040 cal yr BP. In the period of ~3500-2500 cal yr BP the averages July temperatures increased more than 1 0C. Climate became warmer and wetter. During last millennium (after 1040 cal yr BP) average July

  15. Can mountain glacier melting explains the GRACE-observed mass loss in the southeast Tibetan Plateau: From a climate perspective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chunqiao; Ke, Linghong; Huang, Bo; Richards, Keith S.

    2015-01-01

    The southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) includes the majority of monsoonal temperate glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), which is an important source of water for the upper reaches of several large Asian river systems. Climatic change and variability has substantial impacts on cryosphere and hydrological processes in the SETP. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry observations between 2003 and 2009 suggest that there was an average mass loss rate of - 5.99 ± 2.78 Gigatonnes (Gt)/yr in this region. Meanwhile, the hydrological data by model calculations from the GLDAS/Noah and CPC are used to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with a slight negative trend of about - 0.3 Gt/yr. The recent studies (Kääb et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013) reported the thinning rates of mountain glaciers in HMA based on the satellite laser altimetry, and an approximate estimation of the glacier mass budget in the SETP was 4.69 ± 2.03 Gt/yr during 2003-2009. This estimate accounted for a large proportion ( 78.3%) of the difference between the GRACE TWS and model-calculated TWS changes. To better understand the cause of sharp mass loss existing in the SETP, the correlations between key climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) and the GRACE TWS changes are examined at different timescales between 2003 and 2011. The results show that precipitation is the leading factors of abrupt, seasonal and multi-year undulating signals of GRACE TWS anomaly time series, but with weak correlations with the inter-annual trend and annual mass budget of GRACE TWS. In contrast, the annual mean temperature is tightly associated with the annual net mass budget (r = 0.81, p < 0.01), which indirectly suggests that the GRACE-observed mass loss in the SETP may be highly related to glacial processes.

  16. Phylogeny and diversification of mountain vipers (Montivipera, Nilson et al., 2001) triggered by multiple Plio-Pleistocene refugia and high-mountain topography in the Near and Middle East.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stümpel, Nikolaus; Rajabizadeh, Mehdi; Avcı, Aziz; Wüster, Wolfgang; Joger, Ulrich

    2016-08-01

    The Near and Middle East is a hotspot of biodiversity, but the region remains underexplored at the level of genetic biodiversity. Here, we present an extensive molecular phylogeny of the viperid snake genus Montivipera, including all known taxa. Based on nuclear and mitochondrial data, we present novel insights into the phylogeny of the genus and review the status of its constituent species. Maximum likelihood methods revealed a montane origin of Montivipera at 12.3Mya. We then analyzed factors of mountain viper diversity. Our data support substantial changes in effective population size through Plio-Pleistocene periods. We conclude that climatic oscillations were drivers of allopatric speciation, and that mountain systems of the Near and Middle East have strongly influenced the evolution and survival of taxa, because climatic and topographical heterogeneities induced by mountains have played a crucial role as filters for dispersal and as multiple refugia. The wide diversity of montane microhabitats enabled mountain vipers to retain their ecological niche during climatic pessima. In consequence the varied geological and topographical conditions between refugia favoured genetic isolation and created patterns of species richness resulting in the formation of neoendemic taxa. Our data support high concordance between geographic distributions of Montivipera haplotypes with putative plant refugia. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountain regions: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayad, Abbas; Gascoin, Simon; Faour, Ghaleb; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Drapeau, Laurent; Page, Michel Le; Escadafal, Richard

    2017-08-01

    Water resources in Mediterranean regions are under increasing pressure due to climate change, economic development, and population growth. Many Mediterranean rivers have their headwaters in mountainous regions where hydrological processes are driven by snowpack dynamics and the specific variability of the Mediterranean climate. A good knowledge of the snow processes in the Mediterranean mountains is therefore a key element of water management strategies in such regions. The objective of this paper is to review the literature on snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountains to identify the existing knowledge, key research questions, and promising technologies. We collected 620 peer-reviewed papers, published between 1913 and 2016, that deal with the Mediterranean-like mountain regions in the western United States, the central Chilean Andes, and the Mediterranean basin. A large amount of studies in the western United States form a strong scientific basis for other Mediterranean mountain regions. We found that: (1) the persistence of snow cover is highly variable in space and time but mainly controlled by elevation and precipitation; (2) the snowmelt is driven by radiative fluxes, but the contribution of heat fluxes is stronger at the end of the snow season and during heat waves and rain-on-snow events; (3) the snow densification rates are higher in these regions when compared to other climate regions; and (4) the snow sublimation is an important component of snow ablation, especially in high-elevation regions. Among the pressing issues is the lack of continuous ground observation in high-elevation regions. However, a few years of snow depth (HS) and snow water equivalent (SWE) data can provide realistic information on snowpack variability. A better spatial characterization of snow cover can be achieved by combining ground observations with remotely sensed snow data. SWE reconstruction using satellite snow cover area and a melt model provides reasonable information that

  18. Can small island mountains provide relief from the Subtropical Precipitation Decline? Simulating future precipitation regimes for small island nations using high resolution Regional Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, J.; Terando, A. J.; Misra, V.; Wootten, A.

    2017-12-01

    Small island nations are vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle because of their limited water resources. This risk to water security is likely even higher in sub-tropical regions where anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is expected to lead to a drier future (the so-called `dry-get-drier' pattern). However, high-resolution numerical modeling experiments have also shown an enhancement of existing orographically-influenced precipitation patterns on islands with steep topography, potentially mitigating subtropical drying on windward mountain sides. Here we explore the robustness of the near-term (25-45 years) subtropical precipitation decline (SPD) across two island groupings in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These islands, forming the boundary between the Greater and Lesser Antilles, significantly differ in size, topographic relief, and orientation to prevailing winds. Two 2-km horizontal resolution regional climate model simulations are used to downscale a total of three different GCMs under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Results indicate some possibility for modest increases in precipitation at the leading edge of the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, but consistent declines elsewhere. We conclude with a discussion of potential explanations for these patterns and the attendant risks to water security that subtropical small island nations could face as the climate warms.

  19. DOE's Yucca Mountain studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    This booklet is about the disposal of high-level nuclear waste in the United States. It is for readers who have a general rather than a technical background. It discusses why scientists and engineers thinkhigh-level nuclear waste may be disposed of safely underground. It also describes why Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being studied as a potential repository site and provides basic information about those studies

  20. Providing a Scientific and Technical Basis for Repository Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) of 1982 directed the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) to research sites and design a deep geologic repository for the disposal of our nation's spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. In 1987, Congress amended the NWPA and directed the DOE to focus only on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to determine whether it is a suitable site for a repository. For more than 15 years, the DOE has been studying Yucca Mountain and has accumulated an enormous amount of scientific and technical information about the mountain and the area surrounding it. The secretary of energy will decide whether to recommend Yucca Mountain to the president as a suitable site for a repository. This decision will be based on the scientific and technical information resulting from the Department of Energy's studies of Yucca Mountain and on the views and comments submitted by other governmental groups and the public. One required basis for the secretary's decision will be a scientific analysis called a total system performance assessment

  1. Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

    2014-01-01

    Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has

  2. Glaciological studies near the Soer Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideaki Motoyama

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available In the area west of Mizuho Plateau, outflow of the ice sheet is hindered by a chain of mountains (Sor Rondane, Belgica and Yamato Mountains etc. lying along the coast of the continent and ice shelves are developing at the margin of the ice sheet. Therefore the ice sheet geomorphology and dynamical behavior in this area are quite different from those on the Mizuho Plateau. In order to describe the response of the East Antarctic ice sheet to climatic change, we need to know the influence of the presence of mountains on stability of the ice sheet. This glaciological study aims to investigate whether the ice sheet and the ice shelf in this area are now increasing or decreasing in size possibly, in response to atmospheric warming, how far this part of the ice sheet departs from a steady state, and how the influence of climatic change is left inside the ice sheet and the ice shelf. For this purpose the following studies were performed in 1988 and 1989. 1 A series of shallow drillings along a selected flow line upstream of the Sor Rondane Mountains to Breid Bay. 2 Surface flow velocity, strain and mass balance measurements on the flow line. 3 Monitoring of a valley glacier in the Sor Rondane Mountains.

  3. Small-scale variations of climate change in mountainous forested terrain - a regional study from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research site in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honzakova, Katerina; Hoffmann, Peter; Jones, Julia; Thomas, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    There has been conflicting evidence as to whether high elevations are experiencing more pronounced climate warming than lower elevations in mountainous regions. In this study we analyze temperature records from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research, Oregon, USA and several nearby areas, comprising together 28 stations located in Cascade Mountains. The data, starting in 1958, are first checked for quality and homogenized using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test. As a reference, composite climate time series based on the Global Historic Climate Network is created and together with cross-referencing against station records used to correct breaks and shifts in the data. In the next step, we investigate temperature patterns of the study site from 1958 to 2016 and compare them for valley and hill stations. In particular, we explore seasonality and inter-annual variability of the records and trends of the last day of frost. Additionally, 'cold' sums (positive and negative) are calculated to obtain a link between temperature and ecosystems' responses (such as budbreaks). So far, valley stations seem to be more prone to climate change than ridge or summit stations, contrary to current thinking. Building on previous knowledge, we attempt to provide physical explanations for the temperature records, focusing on wind patterns and associated phenomena such as cold air drainage and pooling. To aid this we analyze wind speed and direction data available for some of the stations since 1996, including seasonality and inter-annual variability of the observed flows.

  4. Anthropogenic and climatic factors enhancing hypolimnetic anoxia in a temperate mountain lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-España, Javier; Mata, M. Pilar; Vegas, Juana; Morellón, Mario; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Salazar, Ángel; Yusta, Iñaki; Chaos, Aida; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Navas, Ana

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen depletion (temporal or permanent) in freshwater ecosystems is a widespread and globally important environmental problem. However, the factors behind increased hypolimnetic anoxia in lakes and reservoirs are often diverse and may involve processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we evaluate the combined effects of different anthropogenic pressures on the oxygen dynamics and water chemistry of Lake Enol, an emblematic mountain lake in Picos de Europa National Park (NW Spain). A multidisciplinary study conducted over a period of four years (2013-2016) indicates that the extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia has increased dramatically in recent years. The extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia is typical of meso-eutrophic systems, in contrast with the internal productivity of the lake, which remains oligo-mesotrophic and phosphorus-limited. This apparent contradiction is ascribed to the combination of different external pressures in the catchment, which have increased the input of allochthonous organic matter in recent times through enhanced erosion and sediment transport. The most important among these pressures appears to be cattle grazing, which affects not only the import of carbon and nutrients, but also the lake microbiology. The contribution of clear-cutting, runoff channelling, and tourism is comparatively less significant. The cumulative effects of these local human impacts are not only affecting the lake metabolism, but also the import of sulfate, nitrate- and ammonium-nitrogen, and metals (Zn). However, these local factors alone cannot explain entirely the observed oxygen deficit. Climatic factors (e.g., warmer and drier spring and autumn seasons) are also reducing oxygen levels in deep waters through a longer and increasingly steep thermal stratification. Global warming may indirectly increase anoxia in many other mountain lakes in the near future.

  5. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caty F. Clifton

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the semi-arid environment of the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA, water is a critical resource for both ecosystems and human uses and will be affected by climate change in both the near- and long-term. Warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and snow-dominated watersheds will transition to mixed rain and snow, while mixed rain and snow dominated watersheds will shift towards rain dominated. This will result in high flows occurring more commonly in late autumn and winter rather than spring, and lower low flows in summer, phenomena that may already be occurring in the Pacific Northwest. Higher peak flows are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding, which may increase erosion and scouring of the streambed and concurrent risks to roads, culverts, and bridges. Mapping of projected peak flow changes near roads gives an opportunity to mitigate these potential risks. Diminished snowpack and low summer flows are expected to cause a reduction in water supply for aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, municipal consumption, and livestock grazing, although this effect will not be as prominent in areas with substantial amounts of groundwater. Advanced planning could help reduce conflict among water users. Responding pro-actively to climate risks by improving current management practices, like road design and water management as highlighted here, may be among the most efficient and effective methods for adaptation. Keywords: Climate change, Runoff, Snow, Low flows, Peak flows, Forest roads, Water supply

  6. Alpine infrastructure in Central Europe: integral evaluation of wastewater treatment systems at mountain refuges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissenbacher, N; Mayr, E; Niederberger, T; Aschauer, C; Lebersorger, S; Steinbacher, G; Haberl, R

    2008-01-01

    Planning, construction and operation of onsite wastewater treatment systems at mountain refuges is a challenge. Energy supply, costly transport, limited water resources, unfavourable climate and load variations are only some of the problems that have to be faced. Additionally, legal regulations are different between and even within countries of the Alps. To ensure sustainability, integrated management of the alpine infrastructure management is needed. The energy and water supply and the wastewater and waste disposal systems and the cross-relations between them were analysed for 100 mountain refuges. Wastewater treatment is a main part of the overall 'mountain refuge' system. The data survey and first analyses showed the complex interaction of the wastewater treatment with the other infrastructure. Main criteria for reliable and efficient operation are training, technical support, user friendly control and a relatively simple system set up. Wastewater temperature, alkalinity consumption and high peak loads have to be considered in the planning process. The availability of power in terms of duration and connexion is decisive for the choice of the system. Further, frequency fluctuations may lead to damages to the installed aerators. The type of water source and the type of sanitary equipment influence the wastewater quantity and quality. Biosolids are treated and disposed separately or together with primary or secondary sludge from wastewater treatment dependent on the legal requirements. IWA Publishing 2008.

  7. Thermally driven gas flow beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amter, S.; Lu, Ning; Ross, B.

    1991-01-01

    A coupled thermopneumatic model is developed for simulating heat transfer, rock-gas flow and carbon-14 travel time beneath Yucca Mountain, NV. The aim of this work is to understand the coupling of heat transfer and gas flow. Heat transfer in and near the potential repository region depends on several factors, including the geothermal gradient, climate, and local sources of heat such as radioactive wastes. Our numerical study shows that small temperature changes at the surface can change both the temperature field and the gas flow pattern beneath Yucca Mountain. A lateral temperature difference of 1 K is sufficient to create convection cells hundreds of meters in size. Differences in relative humidities between gas inside the mountain and air outside the mountain also significantly affect the gas flow field. 6 refs., 7 figs

  8. Climatic Characteristics of the Subtropical Mountainous Cloud Forest at the Yuanyang Lake Long-Term Ecological Research Site, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-Ling Lai

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To better understand the climatic characteristics in a subtropical mountainous cloud forest at the Yuanyang Lake long-term ecological research site, weather data collected from January 1994 to December 2004 were analyzed in the present study. The obvious seasonal changes in climatic factors were observed at this site. The annual mean air temperature was 12.7°C. The lowest temperature was recorded in February (monthly mean 5.9°C, and the highest one was taken in July (monthly mean 18.1°C. Winter featured light rain with a prolonged occurrence of fog, resulting in a large reduction of radiation. In summer, fog occurred once in the early morning and the other time from afternoon to evening. The latter one was associated with the wind direction changes and usually accompanied with short moderate to heavy convective rain. Consequently the photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD was high in the morning but reduced drastically in the afternoon. Typhoons occurred in the summer had contributed to 37% of the annual rainfall, usually resulting in torrential rain events and sharp increases in the water level of this lake. As a matter of fact, perhumid environment of this site was attributed to abundant rainfall (mean annual precipitation 3396 mm and high frequency (up to 40% of foggy time. Such conditions would reduce the intensity of solar radiation and PPFD. The average annual solar radiation at the site was 2475 MJ m-2, and annual PPFD was 5713 mol m-2. The average degree of reduction of PPFD under foggy condition was up to 88%. Such climatic characteristics are suggested to constrain the growth of plants and play an important role in competition among plant species in this cloud forest. It is considered that the distinct seasonal fluctuation in environmental factors, perhumid and dim light conditions are the most distinguished characteristics of this subtropical mountainous cloud forest ecosystem.

  9. The Role of Biodiversity, Traditional Knowledge and Participatory Plant Breeding in Climate Change Adaptation in Karst Mountain Areas in SW China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong [Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (China)

    2011-07-15

    This is a report of a country case study on the impacts of climate change and local people's adaptation. The research sites are located in the karst mountainous region in 3 SW China provinces - Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan – an area inhabited by 33 ethnic groups of small farmers and the poor, with rich Plant Genetic Resources (PGR) and culture. Climate change is exacerbating already harsh natural conditions and impacting on biodiversity of remote farmers living in extreme poverty, with very limited arable land. Genetic diversity has also suffered from the adoption of high yielding hybrids. Yet traditional varieties, related TK and Participatory Plant Breeding (PPB) for maize and rice are showing real potential for resilience and adaptation.

  10. Changes in the Mountain Cryosphere and Potential Risks to Downstream Communities: Insights from the Indian Himalayan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Simon; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas; Mal, Suraj; Singh Rana, Ranbir; Singh Randhawa, Surjeet; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Singh Samant, Sher; Stoffel, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Mountain environments around the world are often considered to be amongst the most sensitive to the impacts of climate change. For people living in mountain communities, there are clear challenges to be faced as their livelihoods and subsistence are directly dependent on their surrounding natural environment. But what of the wider implications for societies and large urban settlements living downstream - why should they care about the climate-driven changes occurring potentially hundreds of kilometers away in the snow and ice capped mountains? In this contribution we address this question, drawing on studies and experiences gained within joint Indo-Swiss research collaborations focused on the Indian Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. With the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change currently embarking on the scoping of their 6th Assessment Cycle, which includes a planned Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere, this contribution provides a timely reminder of the importance of mountain regions, and potential far-reaching consequences of changes in the mountain cryosphere. Our studies highlight several key themes which link the mountain environment to the lowland populated areas, including the role of the mountain cryosphere as a water source, far-reaching hazards and disasters that can originate from mountain regions, the role of mountains in providing essential ecosystem services, the economic importance of tourism in mountain regions, and the importance of transportation routes which pass through mountain environments. These themes are intricately linked, as for example demonstrated during the 2013 Uttarakhand flood disaster where many of the approximately 6000 fatalities were tourists visiting high mountain pilgrimage sites. As a consequence of the disaster, tourists stayed away during subsequent seasons with significant economic impacts felt across the State. In Himachal Pradesh, a key national transportation corridor is the Rohtang pass

  11. Evolution of endemism on a young tropical mountain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merckx, Vincent S F T; Hendriks, Kasper P; Beentjes, Kevin K; Mennes, Constantijn B; Becking, Leontine E; Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Afendy, Aqilah; Arumugam, Nivaarani; de Boer, Hugo; Biun, Alim; Buang, Matsain M; Chen, Ping-Ping; Chung, Arthur Y C; Dow, Rory; Feijen, Frida A A; Feijen, Hans; Feijen-van Soest, Cobi; Geml, József; Geurts, René; Gravendeel, Barbara; Hovenkamp, Peter; Imbun, Paul; Ipor, Isa; Janssens, Steven B; Jocqué, Merlijn; Kappes, Heike; Khoo, Eyen; Koomen, Peter; Lens, Frederic; Majapun, Richard J; Morgado, Luis N; Neupane, Suman; Nieser, Nico; Pereira, Joan T; Rahman, Homathevi; Sabran, Suzana; Sawang, Anati; Schwallier, Rachel M; Shim, Phyau-Soon; Smit, Harry; Sol, Nicolien; Spait, Maipul; Stech, Michael; Stokvis, Frank; Sugau, John B; Suleiman, Monica; Sumail, Sukaibin; Thomas, Daniel C; van Tol, Jan; Tuh, Fred Y Y; Yahya, Bakhtiar E; Nais, Jamili; Repin, Rimi; Lakim, Maklarin; Schilthuizen, Menno

    2015-08-20

    Tropical mountains are hot spots of biodiversity and endemism, but the evolutionary origins of their unique biotas are poorly understood. In varying degrees, local and regional extinction, long-distance colonization, and local recruitment may all contribute to the exceptional character of these communities. Also, it is debated whether mountain endemics mostly originate from local lowland taxa, or from lineages that reach the mountain by long-range dispersal from cool localities elsewhere. Here we investigate the evolutionary routes to endemism by sampling an entire tropical mountain biota on the 4,095-metre-high Mount Kinabalu in Sabah, East Malaysia. We discover that most of its unique biodiversity is younger than the mountain itself (6 million years), and comprises a mix of immigrant pre-adapted lineages and descendants from local lowland ancestors, although substantial shifts from lower to higher vegetation zones in this latter group were rare. These insights could improve forecasts of the likelihood of extinction and 'evolutionary rescue' in montane biodiversity hot spots under climate change scenarios.

  12. [Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xu; Wang, Yu Li; Zhang, Jin Quan

    2018-03-01

    Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm -2 , and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm -2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm -2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm -2 , respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm -2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm -2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus

  13. Quantification of spatial temporal variability of snow cover and hydro-climatic variables based on multi-source remote sensing data in the Swat watershed, Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Ding, Yongjian; Shangguan, Donghui; Liu, Junguo; Ahmad, Ijaz; Ijaz, Muhammad Wajid; Khan, Muhammad Imran

    2018-02-01

    The northern part of Hindukush Mountains has a perplexing environment due to the influence of adjacent mountains of Himalaya, Karakoram, and Tibetan Plateau. Although reliable evidences of climate change are available; however, a clear knowledge of snow cover dynamics in the context of climate change is missing for this region. In this study, we used various remotely sensed (TRMM precipitation product, while MODIS temperature and snow cover products) and gauge-based datasets to quantify the spatiotemporal variability of climatic variables and their turn effects over the snow cover area (SCA) and river discharge in the Swat watershed, northern Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate the trends in SCA and hydro-climatic variables, at 5% significant level (P = 0.05). Results show that the winter and springs temperatures have increased (at the rate of 0.079 and 0.059 °C year-1, respectively), while decreasing in the summer and autumn (at the rate of 0.049 and 0.070 °C year-1, respectively). Basin-wide increasing tendency of precipitation was identified with a highest increasing rate of 3.563 mm year-1 in the spring season. A decreasing trend in the winter SCA (at the rate of -0.275% year-1) and increasing trends in other seasons were identified. An increasing tendency of river discharge on annual and seasonal scales was also witnessed. The seasonal variations in discharge showed significant positive and negative relationships with temperature and SCA, respectively. We conclude that the future variations in the temperature and SCA in the higher altitudes of the Swat watershed could substantially affect the seasonality of the river discharge. Moreover, it implies that the effect of ongoing global warming on the SCA in the snowmelt-dominated river basins needs to be considered for sustainable regional planning and management of water resources, hydropower production, and downstream irrigation scheduling.

  14. Restructured site characterization program at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyer, J.R.; Vawter, R.G.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 and the early part of 1995, the US Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Office (YMSCO) and its parent organization, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) underwent a significant restructuring. Senior Department officials provided the leadership to reorient the management, technical, programmatic, and public interaction approach to the US High Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Program. The restructuring involved reorganizing the federal staff, conducting meaningful strategic planning, improving the management system, rationalizing contractor responsibilities, focusing upon major products, and increasing stakeholder involvement. The restructured program has prioritized technical and scientific activities toward meeting major regulatory milestones in a timely and cost-effective manner. This approach has raised concern among elements of technical, scientific, and oversight bodies that suitability and licensing decisions could be made without obtaining sufficient technical information for this first-of-its-kind endeavor. Other organizations, such as congressional committees, industrial groups, and rate payers believe characterization goals can be met in a timely manner and within the limitation of available funds. To balance these contrasting views in its decision making process, OCRWM management has made a special effort to communicate its strategy to oversight bodies, the scientific community and other stakeholders and to use external independent peer review as a key means of demonstrating scientific credibility. Site characterization of Yucca Mountain in Nevada is one of the key elements of the restructured program

  15. Drivers of treeline shift in different European mountains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cudlín, Pavel; Klopčič, M.; Tognetti, R.; Máliš, F.; Alados, C. L.; Bebi, P.; Grunewald, K.; Zhiyanski, M.; Andonowski, V.; La Porta, N.; Bratanova-Doncheva, S.; Kachaunová, E.; Edwards-Jonášová, Magda; Ninot, J. M.; Rigling, A.; Hofgaard, A.; Hlásný, T.; Skalák, Petr; Wielgolaski, F. E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 73, 1-2 (2017), s. 135-150 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD14039 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Vegetation zone shift * Climate change * Climate models * Treeline ecotone * European mountains * Ecosystem services Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  16. A new network on mountain geomorphosites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giusti, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Since about two decades, the value of geoheritage in mountain areas has been re-discovered in various parts of the Alps (Reynard et al., 2010) and other mountain ranges, and various initiatives (protection of sites worthy of protection, inventories of geomorphosites, geotourist promotion, creation of geoparks, etc.) to conserve or promote mountain geoheritage have been developed. As mountains are recognized as natural areas with a very high geodiversity, and at the same time as areas with a great potential for the development of soft tourism, a new Network on Mountain Geomorphosites was created in October 2012 in conclusion to a workshop organized by the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). The Network is open to all researchers active in geoheritage, geoconservation and geotourism studies in mountain areas. For the first years research will focus on three main issues: - Geoheritage and natural processes: Mountains are very sensitive areas where climate change impacts are very acute and where active geomorphological processes rapidly modify landscapes. It is hypothesized that geoheritage will be highly impacted by global change in the future. Nevertheless, at the moment, very little research is carried out on the evolution of landforms recognized as geoheritage and no specific management measures have been developed. Also, the tourist activities related to geoheritage, especially the trails developed to visit geomorphosites, are sensitive to geomorphological processes in mountain areas in a context of global change, and need, therefore, to be better addressed by geomorphologists. - Geotourism: During the last two decades numerous initiatives have developed geotourism in mountain areas. Nevertheless, studies addressing issues such as the needs of the potential public(s) of geotourism, the evaluation of the quality of the geotourist products developed by scientists and/or local authorities, and the assessment of the economic benefits of geotourism for the regional

  17. Water Resources by 2100 in Mountains with Declining Glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, M.

    2015-12-01

    Future shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of snow and ice - and possibly the quasi-disappearance of glaciers - in many mountain regions will change the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality of water originating in mountains and uplands. As a result, changing water availability will affect both upland and populated lowland areas. Economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism or hydropower may enter into rivalries if water is no longer available in sufficient quantities or at the right time of the year. The challenge is thus to estimate as accurately as possible future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance. The European ACQWA project, coordinated by the author, aimed to assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions such as the European Alps, the Central Chilean Andes, and the mountains of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) where declining snow and ice are likely to strongly affect hydrological regimes in a warmer climate. Based on RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, a suite of cryosphere, biosphere and economic models were then used to quantify the environmental, economic and social impacts of changing water resources in order to assess how robust current water governance strategies are and what adaptations may be needed to alleviate the most negative impacts of climate change on water resources and water use. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the studied mountain regions, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. The results from the ACQWA project suggest that there is a need for a

  18. Site characterization progress report: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, April 1, 1991--September 30, 1991, Number 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The Site Characterization Progress Report of Yucca Mountain (PR) presents brief summaries of the status of site characterization activities and cites the technical reports and research products that provide more detailed information on the activities. The report provides highlights of work started during the reporting period, work in progress, and work completed and documented during the reporting period. In addition, the report is the vehicle for the discussion of changes to the DOE's site characterization program resulting from ongoing collection and evaluation of site information; the development of repository and waste-package designs; the results of performance assessments; and any changes that occur in response to external comments. Information covered includes geochemistry, hydrology, geology, climate, and radiation dose estimate calculations

  19. Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

  20. Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Jesse A; MacFarlane, William W; Willcox, Louisa

    2010-06-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

  1. Hydroclimate of the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range, Clark County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreo, Michael T.; Senay, Gabriel B.; Flint, Alan L.; Damar, Nancy A.; Laczniak, Randell J.; Hurja, James

    2014-01-01

    . Estimated groundwater recharge, computed as the residual of precipitation depleted by actual evapotranspiration, is within the range of previous estimates. A climatic water deficit dataset and aridity-index-based climate zones are derived from precipitation and evapotranspiration datasets. Climate zones range from arid in the lower elevations of the study area to humid in small pockets on north- to northeast-facing slopes in the high elevations of the Spring Mountains. Correlative analyses between hydroclimatic variables and mean ecosystem elevations indicate that the climatic water deficit is the best predictor of ecosystem distribution (R2 = 0.92). Computed water balances indicate that substantially more recharge is generated in the Spring Mountains than in the Sheep Range. A geospatial database containing compiled and developed hydroclimatic data and other pertinent information accompanies this report.

  2. Climate and environmental changes over the past 150 years inferred from the sediments of Chaiwopu Lake, central Tianshan Mountains, northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Long; Wu, Jinglu; Abuduwaili, Jilili

    2013-04-01

    We used a 55-cm sediment core from shallow Chaiwopu Lake in the central Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, northwest China, to investigate climate and environmental changes in this arid region over the past ~150 years. The core was dated using 137Cs. We compared temporal changes in several sediment variables with recent meteorological and tree-ring records. Organic matter had a positive correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central Tianshan Mountains, and the δ13C of organic matter had a positive correlation with regional temperature. We applied constrained incremental sum-of-squares cluster analysis to element concentrations in the core and identified three distinct zones: (1) 55-46 cm, ~1860-1910, (2) 46-26 cm, ~1910-1952, and (3) 26-0 cm, 1952-present. Between 1880 and 1910 AD, following the Little Ice Age (LIA), the sediment environment was relatively stable, climate was cold and dry, and the lake water displayed high salinity, in contrast to conditions during the LIA. During the LIA, westerlies carried more water vapor into Central Asia when the North Atlantic Oscillation was in a negative phase, and encountered the enhanced Siberia High, which probably led to increased precipitation. In the period 1910-1950 AD, the lake was shallow and the regional climate was unstable, with high temperatures and humidity. In the last ~15-20 years, human activities caused an increase in sediment magnetic susceptibility, and heavy metal and total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment were substantially enriched. Mean annual temperature displays a warming trend over the past 50 years, and the lowest temperature was observed in the 1950s. There has been an increase in annual total precipitation since the 1990s. The combined influences of climate and human activity on the lake environment during this period were faithfully recorded in sediments of Chaiwopu Lake. This study provides a scientific basis for environmental management and protection.

  3. Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1998-01-01

    With greater certainty in anthropogenic influence on observed changes in climate there is increasing pressure for agreements to control emissions of greenhouse gases ([HOUGHTON]). While it is difficult to assess the appropriate level of mitigation, it has been argued that flexibility in meeting emission targets offers significant economic savings. Such flexibility can be exercised in terms of timing of mitigation (i.e. delay) or geographic location of the intervention (e.g. permit trading and Joint-Implementation). Much of this insight is based on standard models of technical change in energy supply and demand. However, standard model formulations rarely consider: (i) a link between the pattern of technical change and policy interventions; (ii) economies of learning; and (iii) technical progress in discovery and recovery of oil and gas. While there is evidence to support the importance of these factors in historic patterns of technical progress, the data necessary to calibrate internally consistent economic models of these phenomena have not been available. In this paper simple representations of endogenous and induced technical change have been used to explore the sensitivity of mitigation cost estimates to how technical change is represented in energy economics models. The scenarios involve control of CO 2 emissions to limit its concentration to no more than 550 ppm(v), starting in the year 2000, and delayed to 2025. This sensitivity analysis has revealed four robust insights: (i) If endogenous technical change is assumed, expected business as usual emissions are higher than otherwise estimated - nevertheless, while 25% greater CO 2 control is required for meeting the CO 2 concentration target, the cost of mitigation is 40% lower; (ii) If technical progress in oil and gas discovery and recovery is assumed, energy use and CO 2 emissions increase by 75% and 65%, respectively above the standard estimates; (iii) If the economies of learning exhibited in various

  4. Challenges to the Transdisciplinarity of Climate Services: A Coffee Farming Case from Jamaica's Blue Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guido, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate information is heralded as helping to build adaptive capacity, improve resource management, and contribute to more effective risk management. However, decision makers often find it challenging to use climate information for reasons attributed to a disconnect between technical experts who produce the information and end users. Consequently, many climate service projects are now applying an end-to-end approach that links information users and producers in the design, development, and delivery of services. This collaboration confronts obstacles that can undermine the objectives of the project. Despite this, few studies in the burgeoning field of climate services have assessed the challenges. To address this gap, I provide a reflective account and analysis of the collaborative challenges experienced in an ongoing, complex four-year project developing climate services for small-scale coffee producers in Jamaica. The project has involved diverse activities, including social data collection, research and development of information tools, periodic engagement with coffee sector representatives, and community-based trainings. Contributions to the project were made routinely by 18 individuals who represent 9 institutions located in three countries. These individuals work for academic and governmental organizations and bring expertise in anthropology, plant pathology, and climatology, among others. In spanning diverse disciplines, large geographic distances, and different cultures, the project team has navigated challenges in communication, problem framing, organizational agendas, disciplinary integration, and project management. I contextualize these experiences within research on transdisciplinary and team science, and share some perspectives on strategies to lessen their impact.

  5. Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

  6. Timing of glacier advances and climate in the High Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians) during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makos, Michał; Dzierżek, Jan; Nitychoruk, Jerzy; Zreda, Marek

    2014-07-01

    During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), long valley glaciers developed on the northern and southern sides of the High Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Chlorine-36 exposure dating of moraine boulders suggests two major phases of moraine stabilization, at 26-21 ka (LGM I - maximum) and at 18 ka (LGM II). The dates suggest a significantly earlier maximum advance on the southern side of the range. Reconstructing the geometry of four glaciers in the Sucha Woda, Pańszczyca, Mlynicka and Velicka valleys allowed determining their equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) at 1460, 1460, 1650 and 1700 m asl, respectively. Based on a positive degree-day model, the mass balance and climatic parameter anomaly (temperature and precipitation) has been constrained for LGM I advance. Modeling results indicate slightly different conditions between northern and southern slopes. The N-S ELA gradient finds confirmation in slightly higher temperature (at least 1 °C) or lower precipitation (15%) on the south-facing glaciers during LGM I. The precipitation distribution over the High Tatra Mountains indicates potentially different LGM atmospheric circulation than at the present day, with reduced northwesterly inflow and increased southerly and westerly inflows of moist air masses.

  7. Climate change and livestock system in mountain: Understanding from Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, N. S.; Krakauer, N.; Lakhankar, T.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Pradhanang, S.; Jha, A. K.; Shrestha, M.; Sharma, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years climate change has emerged as a source of vulnerability for agro-livestock smallholders in Nepal where people are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. There is a need to understand and predict the potential impacts of climate change on agro-livestock farmer to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand dynamics of this vulnerability, we assess the farmers' perceptions of climate change, analysis of historical and future projections of climatic parameters and try to understand impact of climate change on livestock system in Gandaki River Basin of Central Nepal. During the period of 1981-2012, as reported by the mountain communities, the most serious hazards for livestock system and agriculture are the increasing trend of temperature, erratic rainfall patterns and increase in drought. Poor households without irrigated land are facing greater risks and stresses than well-off people. Analysis of historical climate data also supports the farmer perception. Result shows that there is increasing trend of temperature but no consistent trend in precipitation but a notable finding is that wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Besides that, there is increase in percentage of warm days and nights with decrease in the cool nights and days. The magnitude of the trend is found to be higher in high altitude. Trend of wet days has found to be increasing with decreasing in rainy days. Most areas are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and are more evident in recent years. The summers of 2004/05/06/09 and winters of 2006/08/09 were the worst widespread droughts and have a serious impact on livestock since 1981. Future projected change in temperature and precipitation obtained from downscaling the data global model by regional climate model shows that precipitation in central Nepal will change by -8% to 12% and temperature will change by 1

  8. Geochemical interpretation of Kings Mountain, North Carolina, orientation area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, V.; Ferguson, R.B.

    1977-01-01

    An orientation study has been made of uranium occurrences in the area of Kings Mountain, North Carolina. This is one of the orientation studies of known uranium occurrences that are being conducted in several geologic provinces and under various climatic (weathering) conditions to provide the technical basis for design and interpretation of NURE geochemical reconnaissance programs. The Kings Mountain area was chosen for study primarily because of the reported presence of high-uranium monazite. This 750-mi 2 area is in the deeply weathered southern Appalachian Piedmont and spans portions of the Inner Piedmont, Kings Mountain, and Charlotte geologic belts. Uranium concentration maps for ground and surface water samples clearly outline the outcrop area of the Cherryville Quartz Monzonite with highs up to 10 ppb uranium near the reported uraninite. Several surface water samples appear to be anomalous because of trace industrial contamination. Uranium concentration maps for -100 to +200 mesh stream sediments indicate the area of monazite abundance. Several samples with >100 ppM uranium content appear to be high in uranium-rich resistate minerals. When the uranium content of sediment samples is ratioed to the sum of Hf, Dy, and Th, the anomaly pattern shifts to coincide with uranium highs in ground and surface water samples. False anomalies from concentrations of monazite (Ce,ThPO 4 ), xenotime (Y,DyPO 4 ), and zircon (Zr,HfSiO 4 ) in stream sediment samples can thus be eliminated. Residual anomalies should be related to unusual uranium enrichment of these common minerals or to the presence of an uncommon uranium-rich mineral. Tantalum, beryllium, and tin in stream sediments correspond to high concentrations of uranium in stream and ground water but not to uranium in sediments. In an initial reconnaissance, several media should be sampled, and it is essential to correct uranium in sediments for the sample mineralogy

  9. Soil variability in mountain areas

    OpenAIRE

    Zanini, E.; Freppaz, M.; Stanchi, S.; Bonifacio, E.; Egli, M.

    2015-01-01

    The high spatial variability of soils is a relevant issue at local and global scales, and determines the complexity of soil ecosystem functions and services. This variability derives from strong dependencies of soil ecosystems on parent materials, climate, relief and biosphere, including human impact. Although present in all environments, the interactions of soils with these forming factors are particularly striking in mountain areas.

  10. Development of a Three Dimensional Wireless Sensor Network for Terrain-Climate Research in Remote Mountainous Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, K.; Davis, A.; Gessler, P.; Hess, H.; Holden, Z.; Link, T. E.; Newingham, B. A.; Smith, A. M.; Robinson, P.

    2011-12-01

    Developing sensor networks that are robust enough to perform in the world's remote regions is critical since these regions serve as important benchmarks compared to human-dominated areas. Paradoxically, the factors that make these remote, natural sites challenging for sensor networking are often what make them indispensable for climate change research. We aim to overcome these challenges by developing a three-dimensional sensor network arrayed across a topoclimatic gradient (1100-1800 meters) in a wilderness area in central Idaho. Development of this sensor array builds upon advances in sensing, networking, and power supply technologies coupled with experiences of the multidisciplinary investigators in conducting research in remote mountainous locations. The proposed gradient monitoring network will provide near real-time data from a three-dimensional (3-D) array of sensors measuring biophysical parameters used in ecosystem process models. The network will monitor atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, humidity, air and soil temperature, soil water content, precipitation, incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation, snow depth, wind speed and direction, tree stem growth and leaf wetness at time intervals ranging from seconds to days. The long-term goal of this project is to realize a transformative integration of smart sensor networks adaptively communicating data in real-time to ultimately achieve a 3-D visualization of ecosystem processes within remote mountainous regions. Process models will be the interface between the visualization platforms and the sensor network. This will allow us to better predict how non-human dominated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems function and respond to climate dynamics. Access to the data will be ensured as part of the Northwest Knowledge Network being developed at the University of Idaho, through ongoing Idaho NSF-funded cyber infrastructure initiatives, and existing data management systems funded by NSF, such as

  11. Explaining the species richness of birds along a subtropical elevational gradient in the Hengduan Mountains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Yongjie; Colwell, Robert K.; Rahbek, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    AimTo document the species richness pattern of birds in the Hengduan Mountains and to understand its causes. LocationHengduan Mountains, China. MethodsSpecies richness of 738 breeding bird species was calculated for each 100-m elevational band along a gradient from 100 to 6000m a.s.l. Climate data...... were compiled based on monthly records from 182 meteorological stations in the Hengduan Mountains from 1959 to 2004. We calculated the planimetric area, predicted richness under geometric constraints, three-year average NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and EVI (enhanced vegetation index...... that climatic and energy factors correlate well with the richness pattern of birds, and that on the surveyed subtropical mountain, the elevational bands with highest seasonality harbour fewer species than areas with less seasonal variation in temperature. The results, however, vary somewhat among taxonomic...

  12. HYDROLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS OF FAULTS AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.P. Dickerson

    2000-01-01

    Yucca Mountain comprises a series of north-trending ridges composed of tuffs within the southwest Nevada volcanic field, 120 km northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada. These ridges are formed of east-dipping blocks of interbedded welded and nonwelded tuff that are offset along steep, mostly west-dipping faults that have tens to hundreds of meters of vertical separation. Yucca Mountain is currently under study as a potential site for underground storage of high-level radioactive waste, with the principle goal being the safe isolation of the waste from the accessible environment. To this end, an understanding of the behavior of ground-water flow through the mountain in the unsaturated zone and beneath the mountain in the saturated zone is critical. The percolation of water through the mountain and into the ground-water flow system beneath the potential repository site is predicated on: (1) the amount of water available at the surface as a result of the climatic conditions, (2) the hydrogeologic characteristics of the volcanic strata that compose the mountain. and (3) the hydrogeologic characteristics of the structures, particularly fault zones and fracture networks, that disrupt these strata. This paper addresses the hydrogeologic characteristics of the fault zones at Yucca Mountain, focusing primarily on the central part of the mountain where the potential repository block is located

  13. Geomorphic control on the δ15N of mountain forests.

    OpenAIRE

    Hilton, R. G.; Galy, A.; West, A. J.; Hovius, N.; Roberts, G.G.

    2013-01-01

    Mountain forests are subject to high rates of physical erosion which can export particulate nitrogen from ecosystems. However, the impact of geomorphic processes on nitrogen budgets remains poorly constrained. We have used the elemental and isotopic composition of soil and plant organic matter to investigate nitrogen cycling in the mountain forest of Taiwan, from 24 sites with distinct geomorphic (topographic slope) and climatic (precipitation, temperature) characteristics. The organic carbon...

  14. GENISES: A GIS Database for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckett, J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper provides a general description of the Geographic Nodal Information Study and Evaluation System (GENISES) database design. The GENISES database is the Geographic Information System (GIS) component of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Technical Database (TDB). The GENISES database has been developed and is maintained by EG ampersand G Energy Measurements, Inc., Las Vegas, NV (EG ampersand G/EM). As part of the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Site Characterization Technical Data Management System, GENISES provides a repository for geographically oriented technical data. The primary objective of the GENISES database is to support the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project with an effective tool for describing, analyzing, and archiving geo-referenced data. The database design provides the maximum efficiency in input/output, data analysis, data management and information display. This paper provides the systematic approach or plan for the GENISES database design and operation. The paper also discusses the techniques used for data normalization or the decomposition of complex data structures as they apply to GIS database. ARC/INFO and INGRES files are linked or joined by establishing ''relate'' fields through the common attribute names. Thus, through these keys, ARC can allow access to normalized INGRES files greatly reducing redundancy and the size of the database

  15. Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment of observed climate change over Australia, the likely causes, and projections of future changes to Australia's climate. It also provides information on how to apply the projections in impact studies and in risk assessments. The two main strategies for managing climate risk are mitigation (net reductions in greenhouse gas emissions) to slow climate change and adaptation to climate impacts that are unavoidable. A number of major advances have been made since the last report on climate change projections in Australia (CSIRO 2001) including: a much larger number of climate and ocean variables are projected (21 and 6 respectively); a much larger number (23) of climate models are used; the provision of probabilistic information on some of the projections, including the probability of exceeding the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles; greater emphasis on projections from models that are better able to simulate observed Australian climate; a detailed assessment of observed changes in Australian climate and likely causes; and information on risk assessment, to provide guidance for using climate projections in impact studies

  16. Finite-element simulation of possible natural disasters on landfall dams with changes in climate and seismic conditions taken into account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandurin, M. A.; Volosukhin, V. A.; Vanzha, V. V.; Mikheev, A. V.; Volosukhin, Y. V.

    2018-05-01

    At present theoretical substations for fundamental methods of forecasting possible natural disasters and for quantitative evaluating remaining live technical state of landfall dams in the mountain regions with higher danger are lacking. In this article, the task was set to carry out finite-element simulation of possible natural disasters with changes in the climate as well as in modern seismic conditions of operation in the mountain regions of the Greater Caucasus with higher danger. The research is aimed at the development of methods and principles for monitoring safety of possible natural disasters, evaluating remaining live technical state of landfall dams having one or another damage and for determination of dam failure riskiness, as well. When developing mathematical models of mudflow descents by inflows tributaries into the main bed, an intensive danger threshold was determined, taking into consideration geomorphological characteristics of earthflow courses, physico-chemical and mechanical state of mudflow mass and the dynamics of their state change. Consequences of mudflow descents into river basins were simulated with assessment of threats and risks for projects with different infrastructures located in the river floodplain.

  17. The paleohydrology of unsaturated and saturated zones at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and vicinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paces, James B.; Whelan, Joseph F.; Stuckless, John S.

    2012-01-01

    Surface, unsaturated-zone, and saturated-zone hydrologic conditions at Yucca Mountain responded to past climate variations and are at least partly preserved by sediment, fossil, and mineral records. Characterizing past hydrologic conditions in surface and subsurface environments helps to constrain hydrologic responses expected under future climate conditions and improve predictions of repository performance. Furthermore, these records provide a better understanding of hydrologic processes that operate at time scales not readily measured by other means. Pleistocene climates in southern Nevada were predominantly wetter and colder than the current interglacial period. Cyclic episodes of aggradation and incision in Fortymile Wash, which drains the eastern slope of Yucca Mountain, are closely linked to Pleistocene climate cycles. Formation of pedogenic cement is favored under wetter Pleistocene climates, consistent with increased soil moisture and vegetation, higher chemical solubility, and greater evapotranspiration relative to Holocene soil conditions. The distribution and geochemistry of secondary minerals in subsurface fractures and cavities reflect unsaturated-zone hydrologic conditions and the response of the hydrogeologic system to changes in temperature and percolation flux over the last 12.8 m.y. Physical and fluid-inclusion evidence indicates that secondary calcite and opal formed in air-filled cavities from fluids percolating downward through connected fracture pathways in the unsaturated zone. Oxygen, strontium, and carbon isotope data from calcite are consistent with a descending meteoric water source but also indicate that water compositions and temperatures evolved through time. Geochronological data indicate that secondary mineral growth rates are less than 1–5 mm/m.y., and have remained approximately uniform over the last 10 m.y. or longer. These data are interpreted as evidence for hydrological stability despite large differences in surface moisture

  18. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  19. Plant invasions in mountains: Global lessons for better management

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougall, K.L.; Khuroo, A.A.; Loope, L.L.; Parks, C.G.; Pauchard, A.; Reshi, Z.A.; Rushworth, I.; Kueffer, C.

    2011-01-01

    Mountains are one of few ecosystems little affected by plant invasions. However, the threat of invasion is likely to increase because of climate change, greater anthropogenic land use, and continuing novel introductions. Preventive management, therefore, will be crucial but can be difficult to promote when more pressing problems are unresolved and predictions are uncertain. In this essay, we use management case studies from 7 mountain regions to identify common lessons for effective preventive action. The degree of plant invasion in mountains was variable in the 7 regions as was the response to invasion, which ranged from lack of awareness by land managers of the potential impact in Chile and Kashmir to well-organized programs of prevention and containment in the United States (Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest), including prevention at low altitude. In Australia, awareness of the threat grew only after disruptive invasions. In South Africa, the economic benefits of removing alien plants are well recognized and funded in the form of employment programs. In the European Alps, there is little need for active management because no invasive species pose an immediate threat. From these case studies, we identify lessons for management of plant invasions in mountain ecosystems: (i) prevention is especially important in mountains because of their rugged terrain, where invasions can quickly become unmanageable; (ii) networks at local to global levels can assist with awareness raising and better prioritization of management actions; (iii) the economic importance of management should be identified and articulated; (iv) public acceptance of management programs will make them more effective; and (v) climate change needs to be considered. We suggest that comparisons of local case studies, such as those we have presented, have a pivotal place in the proactive solution of global change issues. ?? International Mountain Society.

  20. The retreat of mountain glaciers: what can satellites tell us?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthier, E.

    2008-01-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the best indicators of climate change and their rapid wastage make them a strong contributor to sea level rise. The estimated 160,000 mountain glaciers are spread all around the globe and remain difficult to access. Consequently, only a limited number (about 50 glaciers) are regularly monitored in the field. Today, high resolution satellite optical images are combined to some advanced methodologies to survey their fast and alarming evolution. (author)

  1. Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M; Sher, Anna A

    2015-08-01

    • Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution.• We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate.• We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season.• These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  2. Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Wang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Drylands cover about 40% of the terrestrial land surface and account for approximately 40% of global net primary productivity. Water is fundamental to the biophysical processes that sustain ecosystem function and food production, particularly in drylands where a tight coupling exists between ecosystem productivity, surface energy balance, biogeochemical cycles, and water resource availability. Currently, drylands support at least 2 billion people and comprise both natural and managed ecosystems. In this synthesis, we identify some current critical issues in the understanding of dryland systems and discuss how arid and semiarid environments are responding to the changes in climate and land use. The issues range from societal aspects such as rapid population growth, the resulting food and water security, and development issues, to natural aspects such as ecohydrological consequences of bush encroachment and the causes of desertification. To improve current understanding and inform upon the needed research efforts to address these critical issues, we identify some recent technical advances in terms of monitoring dryland water dynamics, water budget and vegetation water use, with a focus on the use of stable isotopes and remote sensing. These technological advances provide new tools that assist in addressing critical issues in dryland ecohydrology under climate change.

  3. Principles of bioclimatic architecture applied at the project of spa center at Stara Planina mountain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Igor

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Application of bioclimatic parameters in the design of tourist objects is an important factor for reducing energy consumption and preserving the environment. It represents the response to constant changing of climate conditions. Given the fact that development of tourism has negative consequences on the environment, it is necessary to examine the way design process can affect the reduction of energy and environmental pollution. This paper analyzes the principles of bioclimatic planning and design of the Spa Center at the Balkan Mountain that is one of the most valuable ecosystems in Serbia. Adaptation to the existing climate change was analyzed on two levels. The first level was urban factors that include analysis of local climate and environment that affect the positioning of the object and preliminary form. The second level was architecture factors with technical and technological solutions that can be achieved through the application of climate and energy responsible designing. Final analyses indicate that the bioclimatic approach is necessary in the initial stage of setting preliminary design for the building, because later it would take more effort to install technology that requires time and the whole process makes much more expensive. The work indicates that the energy needs of optimized Spa center like represented, from the very beginning of planning and designing, can be drastically reduced.

  4. The status of Yucca Mountain site characterization activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertz, Carl P.; Larkin, Erin L.; Hamner, Melissa

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is continuing its studies to determine if Yucca Mountain, Nevada, can safely isolate high-level nuclear waste for the next ten thousand years. As mandated by Congress in 1987, DOE is studying the rocks, the climate, and the water table at Yucca Mountain to ensure that the site is suitable before building a repository adopt 305 meters below the surface. Yucca Mountain, located 160.9 kilometers northwest of Las Vegas, lies on the western edge of the Nevada Test Site. Nevada and DOE have been in litigation over environmental permits needed to conduct studies, but recent court decisions have allowed limited new work to begin. This paper will examine progress made on the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) during 1991 and continuing into 1992, discuss the complex legal issues and describe new site drilling work. Design work on the underground exploratory studies facility (ESF) will also be discussed. (author)

  5. Mountain-Scale Coupled Processes (TH/THC/THM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, P.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the development of the Mountain-Scale Thermal-Hydrological (TH), Thermal-Hydrological-Chemical (THC), and Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) Models and evaluate the effects of coupled TH/THC/THM processes on mountain-scale UZ flow at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This Model Report was planned in ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone'' (BSC 2002 [160819], Section 1.12.7), and was developed in accordance with AP-SIII.10Q, Models. In this Model Report, any reference to ''repository'' means the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, and any reference to ''drifts'' means the emplacement drifts at the repository horizon. This Model Report provides the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses for analyzing mountain-scale hydrological/chemical/mechanical changes and predict flow behavior in response to heat release by radioactive decay from the nuclear waste repository at the Yucca Mountain site. The mountain-scale coupled TH/THC/THM processes models numerically simulate the impact of nuclear waste heat release on the natural hydrogeological system, including a representation of heat-driven processes occurring in the far field. The TH simulations provide predictions for thermally affected liquid saturation, gas- and liquid-phase fluxes, and water and rock temperature (together called the flow fields). The main focus of the TH Model is to predict the changes in water flux driven by evaporation/condensation processes, and drainage between drifts. The TH Model captures mountain-scale three dimensional (3-D) flow effects, including lateral diversion at the PTn/TSw interface and mountain-scale flow patterns. The Mountain-Scale THC Model evaluates TH effects on water and gas chemistry, mineral dissolution/precipitation, and the resulting impact to UZ hydrological properties, flow and transport. The THM Model addresses changes in permeability due to mechanical and thermal disturbances in

  6. Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram K Raghavan

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

  7. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  8. Mountains Under Pressure: Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Livelihoods in the Upper Himalayan Region of Nepal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhusal, Jagat K.; Chapagain, Prem Sagar; Regmi, Santosh; Gurung, Praju; Zulkafli, Zed; Karpouzoglou, T.D.; Pandeya, Bhopal; Buytaert, Wouter; Clark, Julian

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource-based livelihoods in mountainous regions are subject to new types of development as well as climate related pressures and vulnerabilities. On one hand, the integrity of the mountainous landscape is under pressure from the melting of glaciers, changes in water availability, rainfall

  9. Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. .... Note: The topography is classified by using the SRTM3 digital elevation model (DEM), which ...... trends and flooding risk in the west of Scotland; Nordic.

  10. Investigations of natural groundwater hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain high level nuclear waste repository. Part A: Geology at Yucca Mountain. Part B: Modeling of hydro-tectonic phenomena relevant to Yucca Mountain. Annual report - Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szymanski, J.S.; Schluter, C.M.; Livingston, D.E.

    1993-05-01

    This document is an annual report describing investigations of natural groundwater hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain, Nevada High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository.This document describes research studies of the origin of near surface calcite/silica deposits at Yucca Mountain. The origin of these deposits is controversial and the authors have extended and strengthened the basis of their arguments for epigenetic, metasomatic alteration of the tuffs at Yucca Mountain. This report includes stratigraphic, mineralogical, and geochronological information along with geochemical data to support the conclusions described by Livingston and Szymanski, and others. As part of their first annual report, they take this opportunity to clarify the technical basis of their concerns and summarize the critical geological field evidence and related information. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database

  11. Mountains in the third millennium - a decade of droughts and water scarcity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, C.; Shaban, A.; Belete, T.

    2012-04-01

    Droughts and water scarcity have touched the Alps, Mediterranean and East African mountain chains more intensively since the beginning of the third millennium and pose a major challenge for water management. The year 2011 has been no exception, with the lowest river levels on record over the past 50 years even for alpine rivers. Although considerable climate fluctuations and persistent droughts have occurred in the past, it is quite remarkable that the five hottest summers over the past 500 years in Europe and the Alps have all been concentrated after 2002, falling far outside their normal historical distribution. In most mountain chains drought phenomena are persistent over large areas and over a variety of scales. The hydrological consequences, such as decreased rain- and snowfall, drying of springs, decreased river and groundwater discharge, lowering of lake levels and excessive evaporation etc. are considerable. Seasonality has been considerably affected, with the summer extending well into the spring and autumn. Mountain-fed rivers have experienced unusually low discharge over the last 10 years, with a decreasing trend both in summer and winter discharge. These hydrological changes have multiple impacts on availability of drinking water and the energy sector, decreasing hydroelectric production and availability of cooling water for the nuclear industry and negatively effecting river navigation, irrigation agriculture as well as winter tourism in mountains. Despite these naturally-induced shortcomings, adaptation has not always been rational. In some cases, maladaptation has led to overexploitation of water resources during drought conditions, exasperating water scarcity. For example, for the tourism sector in the Alps, water demand for drinking water and artificial snow making lies far above the available resources during the winter season for numerous resorts. This has long term environmental and socio-economic impacts such as destruction of wetlands

  12. Analyzing Multidecadal Trends in Cloudiness Over the Subtropical Andes Mountains of South America Using a Regional Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Satellite-based products indicate that many parts of South America have been experiencing increases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and corresponding decreases in cloudiness over the last few decades, with the strongest trends occurring in the subtropical Andes Mountains - an area that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on glacial melt for dry-season runoff. Changes in cloudiness may be contributing to increases in atmospheric temperature, thereby raising the freezing level height (FLH) - a critical geophysical parameter. Yet these trends are only partially captured in reanalysis products, while AMIP climate models generally show no significant trend in OLR over this timeframe, making it difficult to determine the underlying drivers. Therefore, controlled numerical experiments with a regional climate model are performed in order to investigate drivers of the observed OLR and cloudiness trends. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here because it offers several advantages over global models, including higher resolution - a critical asset in areas of complex topography - as well as flexible physics, parameterization, and data assimilation capabilities. It is likely that changes in the mean states and meridional gradients of SSTs in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are driving regional trends in clouds. A series of lower boundary manipulations are performed with WRF to determine to what extent changes in SSTs influence regional OLR.

  13. Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

  14. The Centre for Mountain Studies: Active From Scottish to Global Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Woolvin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Centre for Mountain Studies (CMS, located at Perth College, University of the Highlands and Islands, Scotland, hosts the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Chair in Sustainable Mountain Development. Since 2000, CMS staff and students have been active in research and knowledge exchange activities at scales from the local—in Scotland—to the global (Price 2011; Glass et al 2013. In addition to hosting the Mountains of our Future Earth conference (Perth III, recent international activities have focused on climate change, biosphere reserves, social innovation, and stakeholder engagement in biodiversity research. Projects in Scotland have mainly addressed land management and local communities. The CMS also runs a part-time online MSc program in Sustainable Mountain Development.

  15. Study on Net Primary Productivity over Complicated Mountainous Area based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, X.; Shen, H.; Li, X.; Gan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Mountainous area hosts approximately a quarter of the global land surface, with complex climate and ecosystem conditions. More knowledge about mountainous ecosystem could highly advance our understanding of the global carbon cycle and climate change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP), the biomass increment of plants, is a widely used ecological indicator that can be obtained by remote sensing methods. However, limited by the defective characteristic of sensors, which cannot be long-term with enough spatial details synchronously, the mountainous NPP was far from being understood. In this study, a multi-sensor fusion framework was applied to synthesize a 1-km NPP series from 1982 to 2014 in mountainous southwest China, where elevation ranged from 76m to 6740m. The validation with field-measurements proved this framework greatly improved the accuracy of NPP (r=0.79, prun-off. What is more, it was indicated that the NPP variation showed three distinct stages at the year break-point of 1992 and 2002 over the region. The NPP in low-elevation area varied almost triple more drastic than the high-elevation area for all the three stages, due to the much greater change rate of precipitation. In summary, this study innovatively conducted a long-term and accurate NPP study on the not understood mountainous ecosystem with multi-source data, the framework and conclusions will be beneficial for the further cognition of global climate change.

  16. Winter Tourism and mountain wetland management and restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucherand, S.; Mauz, I.

    2012-04-01

    The degradation and loss of wetlands is more rapid than that of other ecosystems (MEA 2005). In mountains area, wetlands are small and scattered and particularly sensitive to global change. The development of ski resorts can lead to the destruction or the deterioration of mountain wetlands because of hydrologic interferences, fill in, soil compression and erosion, etc. Since 2008, we have studied a high altitude wetland complex in the ski resort of Val Thorens. The aim of our study was to identify the impacts of mountain tourism development (winter and summer tourism) on wetland functioning and to produce an action plan designed to protect, rehabilitate and value the wetlands. We chose an approach based on multi-stakeholder participatory process at every stage, from information gathering to technical choices and monitoring. In this presentation, we show how such an approach can efficiently improve the consideration of wetlands in the development of a ski resort, but also the bottlenecks that need to be overcome. We will also discuss some of the ecological engineering techniques used to rehabilitate or restore high altitude degraded wetlands. Finally, this work has contributed to the creation in 2012 of a mountain wetland observatory coordinated by the conservatory of Haute-Savoie. The objective of this observatory is to estimate ecosystem services furnished by mountain wetlands and to find restoration strategies adapted to the local socio-economical context (mountain agriculture and mountain tourism).

  17. The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuena-Lombraña, Alba; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cogoni, Donatella; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2018-03-01

    Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global

  18. Persistence of evapotranspiration impacts from mountain pine beetle outbreaks in lodgepole pine forests, south-central Rocky Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie; Williams, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    The current extent and high severity (percent tree mortality) of mountain pine beetle outbreaks across western North America have been attributed to regional climate change, specifically warmer summer and winter temperatures and drier summers. These outbreaks are widespread and have potentially persistent impacts on forest evapotranspiration. The few data-driven studies have largely been restricted by the temporal availability of remote sensing products. This study utilized multiple mountain pine beetle outbreak location datasets, both current and historical, within lodgepole pine stands in the south-central Rocky Mountains. The full seasonal evapotranspiration impact of outbreak events for decades after outbreak (0 to 60 years) and the role of outbreak severity in determining that impact were quantified. We found a 30% reduction in evapotranspiration peaking at 14-20 years post-outbreak during the spring snowmelt period, when water was not limited, but a minimal reduction in evapotranspiration during the remainder of the growing season (June - August). We also found a significant increase in evapotranspiration, relative to non-attacked stands, in intermediate aged stands (20-40 years post-disturbance) corresponding with a peak in LAI and therefore transpiration. During the snow-cover months evapotranspiration initially increased with needle fall and snag fall and corresponding increases in albedo and shortwave transmission to the surface. We found that changes in evapotranspiration during all seasons dissipated by 60 years post-attack. MODIS evapotranspiration values responded most strongly to mountain pine beetle driven changes in net radiation or available energy, and vegetation cover (e.g. LAI, fPAR and EVI). It also appears that the post-attack response of evapotranspiration may be sensitive to precipitation patterns and thus the consequences of a disturbance event may depend on the directionality of climate change conditions.

  19. Phylogeographic Structure of a Tethyan Relict Capparis spinosa (Capparaceae) Traces Pleistocene Geologic and Climatic Changes in the Western Himalayas, Tianshan Mountains, and Adjacent Desert Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qian; Zhang, Ming-Li; Yin, Lin-Ke

    2016-01-01

    Complex geological movements more or less affected or changed floristic structures, while the alternation of glacials and interglacials is presumed to have further shaped the present discontinuous genetic pattern of temperate plants. Here we consider Capparis spinosa, a xeromorphic Tethyan relict, to discuss its divergence pattern and explore how it responded in a stepwise fashion to Pleistocene geologic and climatic changes. 267 individuals from 31 populations were sampled and 24 haplotypes were identified, based on three cpDNA fragments (trnL-trnF, rps12-rpl20, and ndhF). SAMOVA clustered the 31 populations into 5 major clades. AMOVA suggests that gene flow between them might be restricted by vicariance. Molecular clock dating indicates that intraspecific divergence began in early Pleistocene, consistent with a time of intense uplift of the Himalaya and Tianshan Mountains, and intensified in mid-Pleistocene. Species distribution modeling suggests range reduction in the high mountains during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as a result of cold climates when glacier advanced, while gorges at midelevations in Tianshan appear to have served as refugia. Populations of low-altitude desert regions, on the other hand, probably experienced only marginal impacts from glaciation, according to the high levels of genetic diversity.

  20. Phylogeographic Structure of a Tethyan Relict Capparis spinosa (Capparaceae Traces Pleistocene Geologic and Climatic Changes in the Western Himalayas, Tianshan Mountains, and Adjacent Desert Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex geological movements more or less affected or changed floristic structures, while the alternation of glacials and interglacials is presumed to have further shaped the present discontinuous genetic pattern of temperate plants. Here we consider Capparis spinosa, a xeromorphic Tethyan relict, to discuss its divergence pattern and explore how it responded in a stepwise fashion to Pleistocene geologic and climatic changes. 267 individuals from 31 populations were sampled and 24 haplotypes were identified, based on three cpDNA fragments (trnL-trnF, rps12-rpl20, and ndhF. SAMOVA clustered the 31 populations into 5 major clades. AMOVA suggests that gene flow between them might be restricted by vicariance. Molecular clock dating indicates that intraspecific divergence began in early Pleistocene, consistent with a time of intense uplift of the Himalaya and Tianshan Mountains, and intensified in mid-Pleistocene. Species distribution modeling suggests range reduction in the high mountains during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM as a result of cold climates when glacier advanced, while gorges at midelevations in Tianshan appear to have served as refugia. Populations of low-altitude desert regions, on the other hand, probably experienced only marginal impacts from glaciation, according to the high levels of genetic diversity.

  1. Surviving in mountain climate refugia: new insights from the genetic diversity and structure of the relict shrub Myrtus nivellei (Myrtaceae in the Sahara Desert.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérémy Migliore

    Full Text Available The identification of past glacial refugia has become a key topic for conservation under environmental change, since they contribute importantly to shaping current patterns of biodiversity. However, little attention has been paid so far to interglacial refugia despite their key role for the survival of relict species currently occurring in climate refugia. Here, we focus on the genetic consequences of range contraction on the relict populations of the evergreen shrub Myrtus nivellei, endemic in the Saharan mountains since at least the end of the last Green Sahara period, around 5.5 ka B.P. Multilocus genotypes (nuclear microsatellites and AFLP were obtained from 215 individuals collected from 23 wadis (temporary rivers in the three main mountain ranges in southern Algeria (the Hoggar, Tassili n'Ajjer and Tassili n'Immidir ranges. Identical genotypes were found in several plants growing far apart within the same wadis, a pattern taken as evidence of clonality. Multivariate analyses and Bayesian clustering revealed that genetic diversity was mainly structured among the mountain ranges, while low isolation by distance was observed within each mountain range. The range contraction induced by the last episode of aridification has likely increased the genetic isolation of the populations of M. nivellei, without greatly affecting the genetic diversity of the species as a whole. The pattern of genetic diversity observed here suggests that high connectivity may have prevailed during humid periods, which is consistent with recent paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

  2. Surviving in mountain climate refugia: new insights from the genetic diversity and structure of the relict shrub Myrtus nivellei (Myrtaceae) in the Sahara Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliore, Jérémy; Baumel, Alex; Juin, Marianick; Fady, Bruno; Roig, Anne; Duong, Nathalie; Médail, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    The identification of past glacial refugia has become a key topic for conservation under environmental change, since they contribute importantly to shaping current patterns of biodiversity. However, little attention has been paid so far to interglacial refugia despite their key role for the survival of relict species currently occurring in climate refugia. Here, we focus on the genetic consequences of range contraction on the relict populations of the evergreen shrub Myrtus nivellei, endemic in the Saharan mountains since at least the end of the last Green Sahara period, around 5.5 ka B.P. Multilocus genotypes (nuclear microsatellites and AFLP) were obtained from 215 individuals collected from 23 wadis (temporary rivers) in the three main mountain ranges in southern Algeria (the Hoggar, Tassili n'Ajjer and Tassili n'Immidir ranges). Identical genotypes were found in several plants growing far apart within the same wadis, a pattern taken as evidence of clonality. Multivariate analyses and Bayesian clustering revealed that genetic diversity was mainly structured among the mountain ranges, while low isolation by distance was observed within each mountain range. The range contraction induced by the last episode of aridification has likely increased the genetic isolation of the populations of M. nivellei, without greatly affecting the genetic diversity of the species as a whole. The pattern of genetic diversity observed here suggests that high connectivity may have prevailed during humid periods, which is consistent with recent paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

  3. Ecology of Land Cover Change in Glaciated Tropical Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth R. Young

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical mountains contain unique biological diversity, and are subject to many consequences of global climate change, exasperated by concurrent socioeconomic shifts. Glaciers are in a negative mass balance, exposing substrates to primary succession and altering downslope wetlands and streams. A review of recent trends and future predictions suggests a likely reduction in areas of open habitat for species of high mountains due to greater woody plant cover, accompanied by land use shifts by farmers and pastoralists along the environmental gradients of tropical mountains. Research is needed on the biodiversity and ecosystem consequences of successional change, including the direct effects of retreating glaciers and the indirect consequences of combined social and ecological drivers in lower elevations. Areas in the high mountains that are protected for nature conservation or managed collectively by local communities represent opportunities for integrated research and development approaches that may provide ecological spaces for future species range shifts.

  4. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  5. The mountain Cer: Potentials for tourism development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grčić Mirko D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In northwest of Serbia in the meridians directions an elongated mountain range of Cer with Iverak and Vlašić stretches itself. On the north it goes down to Mačva and Posavina, on the west to Podrinje, on the east to the valley of Kolubara, on the south to the basins and valleys of Jadar and upper Kolubara, which separate it from the mountains of Valjevo and Podrinje area. Cer mountain offers extremely good condition for development of eco-tourism. The variety of relief with gorgeous see-sites, natural rarities, convenient bio-climatic conditions, significant water resources, forest complexes, medieval fortresses, cultural-historic monuments, richness of flora and fauna, preserved rural environment, traditions and customs of local population, were all neglected as strategic factors in the development of tourism. This mountain’s potentials are quite satisfactory for the needs of eco-tourism, similar to the National Park of Fruška Gora, but it has lacked an adequate ecotourist strategy so far. This study aims to pointing to the potential and possibilities of ecotourist valorization of this mountain.

  6. Yucca Mountain and the environmental issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertz, C.P.

    1991-01-01

    The scientists and engineers who work on the Yucca Mountain Project keenly feel their responsibility - to solve an important national environmental issue. Addressing the issue of nuclear waste disposal may also help keep the nuclear option viable. Under congressional mandate, they are working to find that solution despite tough opposition from the state of Nevada. Nevada and the US Department of Energy (DOE) have been litigating the issue of environmental permits for almost 2 years now, and the court decisions have all favored DOE. The DOE's site characterization efforts are designed to determine whether Yucca Mountain can safely store spent nuclear fuel for the next 10,000 yr. DOE is studying the rocks, the climate, and the water table to make sure that the site is suitable before anything is built there. The success of the Yucca Mountain Project is vital to settling existing environmental issues as well as maintaining the viability of nuclear energy. Through efforts in Congress and outreach programs in Nevada, DOE hopes to inform the public of the mission and begin the process of site characterization

  7. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  8. Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Sutton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

  9. Proceedings of the second symposium on the geology of Rocky Mountain coal, 1977

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodgson, H. E. [ed.

    1978-01-01

    The 1977 Symposium on the Geology of Rocky Mountain Coal was held May 9 and 10 on the campus of the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado. The 1977 Symposium was sponsored by the Colorado Geological Survey and the US Geological Survey. The 1977 Symposium consisted of four technical sessions: Depositional Models for Coal Exploration in the Rocky Mountain Cretaceous; Stratigraphy and Depositional Environments of Rocky Mountain Tertiary Coal Deposits; Depositional Models for Coal Exploration in non-Rocky Mountain Regions; and Application of Geology to Coal Mining and Coal Mine Planning. Several papers discuss geophysical survey and well logging techniques applied to the exploration of coal deposits and for mine planning. Fouteen papers have been entered individually into EDB and ERA. (LTN)

  10. Tectonic stability and expected ground motion at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    A workshop was convened on August 7-8, 1984 at the direction of DOE to discuss effects of natural and artificial earthquakes and associated ground motion as related to siting of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. A panel of experts in seismology and tectonics was assembled to review available data and analyses and to assess conflicting opinions on geological and seismologic data. The objective of the meeting was to advise the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations (NNWSI) Project about how to present a technically balanced and scientifically credible evaluation of Yucca Mountain for the NNWSI Project EA. The group considered two central issues: the magnitude of ground motion at Yucca Mountain due to the largest expected earthquake, and the overall tectonic stability of the site given the current geologic and seismologic data base. 44 refs

  11. Tectonic stability and expected ground motion at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1984-10-02

    A workshop was convened on August 7-8, 1984 at the direction of DOE to discuss effects of natural and artificial earthquakes and associated ground motion as related to siting of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. A panel of experts in seismology and tectonics was assembled to review available data and analyses and to assess conflicting opinions on geological and seismologic data. The objective of the meeting was to advise the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations (NNWSI) Project about how to present a technically balanced and scientifically credible evaluation of Yucca Mountain for the NNWSI Project EA. The group considered two central issues: the magnitude of ground motion at Yucca Mountain due to the largest expected earthquake, and the overall tectonic stability of the site given the current geologic and seismologic data base. 44 refs.

  12. Applied chemical ecology of the mountain pine beetle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert A. Progar; Nancy Gillette; Christopher J. Fettig; Kathryn Hrinkevich

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a primary agent of forest disturbance in western North America. Episodic outbreaks occur at the convergence of favorable forest age and size class structure and climate patterns. Recent outbreaks have exceeded the historic range of variability of D. ponderosae-caused tree mortality affecting ecosystem goods and...

  13. Analysing Surface Exposure to Climate Dynamics in the Himalayas to Adopt a Planning Framework for Landslide Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2017-12-01

    Himalayas rank first in the inventory of most densely populated and congested high altitude mountain regions of the planet. The region is mostly characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools along with constraints of terrain undermining the carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Moreover, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly urbanizing mountain towns to increased frequency and severity of risks from extreme weather events. Such events pose multifold threat by easily translating to hazards, without the ability to respond and mitigate. Additionally, the recent extreme climate dynamics such as rainfall patterns have influenced the natural rate of surface/slope processes in the Himalaya. The aim of the study was to analyze the extent of interaction between climate dynamics and upland surface to develop participatory planning framework for landslide risk reduction using Integral Geographic Information System (integral GIS). At this stage, the study is limited to only rainfall triggered landslides (RTL). The study region lies in the middle Himalayan range (Himachal). Research utilized terrain analysis tools in integral GIS and identified risk susceptible surface without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2. Interference in surface/slope processes. Analysis covered most of the relevant surface factors including geology, slope instability, infrastructure development, natural and urban drainage system, land-cover and land-use as well. The outcome included an exposure-reduced model of existing terrain and the surface-process accommodated by it, with the use of local technical tools available among the poor and fragile mountain community. The final participatory planning framework successfully harmonized people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporated priorities of local authorities. This research is significant as it rises above the fundamental

  14. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  15. Viability Assessment of a Repository at Yucca Mountain. Volume 1: Introduction and Site Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1998-12-01

    This first volume contains an introduction to the viability assessment, including the purpose, scope, waste forms, technical challenges, an historical perspective, regulatory framework, management of the repository, technical components, preparations for the license application, and repository milestones after the assessment. The second part of this first volume addresses characteristics of the Yucca Mountain site.

  16. Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

  17. Climate Change | Page 13 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Read more about Reducing the Risk of Water Pollution in Vulnerable Coastal Communities of Cartagena, Colombia: Responding to Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Adaptation to Climate Change in two Rural Communities on the Plains and in the Mountains of Morocco. Language English. Read more ...

  18. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  19. Limited evidence for CO2 -related growth enhancement in northern Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine populations across climate gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Charlotte C; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Cooper, Leila Annie; Sala, Anna

    2018-04-15

    Forests sequester large amounts of carbon annually and are integral in buffering against effects of global change. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 may enhance photosynthesis and/or decrease stomatal conductance (g s ) thereby enhancing intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), having potential indirect and direct benefits to tree growth. While increasing iWUE has been observed in most trees globally, enhanced growth is not ubiquitous, possibly due to concurrent climatic constraints on growth. To investigate our incomplete understanding of interactions between climate and CO 2 and their impacts on tree physiology and growth, we used an environmental gradient approach. We combined dendrochronology with carbon isotope analysis (δ 13 C) to assess the covariation of basal area increment (BAI) and iWUE over time in lodgepole pine. Trees were sampled at 18 sites spanning two climatically distinct elevation transects on the lee and windward sides of the Continental Divide, encompassing the majority of lodgepole pine's northern Rocky Mountain elevational range. We analyzed BAI and iWUE from 1950 to 2015, and explored correlations with monthly climate variables. As expected, iWUE increased at all sites. However, concurrent growth trends depended on site climatic water deficit (CWD). Significant growth increases occurred only at the driest sites, where increases in iWUE were strongest, while growth decreases were greatest at sites where CWD has been historically lowest. Late summer drought of the previous year negatively affected growth across sites. These results suggest that increasing iWUE, if strong enough, may indirectly benefit growth at drier sites by effectively extending the growing season via reductions in g s . Strong growth decreases at high elevation windward sites may reflect increasing water stress as a result of decreasing snowpack, which was not offset by greater iWUE. Our results imply that increasing iWUE driven by decreasing g s may benefit tree growth in

  20. Bioclimate analysis of Mountain Bjelašnica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šušnjar Sanda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The main task of this paper was to assess weather suitability on Bjelasnica Mountain for optimal function of a human organism. Also, this paper represents weather classification for certain types of recreation and sport's activities. For the purpose of bioclimate analyses it has been used Model “MENEX”. This paper deals with the assessment of heat exchange between man and its environment. Research is based on a meteorological data from 2000 to 2010. The aim of a research was to determine periods in year on mountain Bjelasnica with optimal climate conditions for recreation and living but also to define periods with mostly unsuitable weather conditions, except for healthy and well adapted persons and specific type of activities.

  1. The chemical and biological response of two remote mountain lakes in the Southern Central Alps (Italy) to twenty years of changing physical and chemical climate

    OpenAIRE

    Andrea LAMI; Pierluigi CAMMARANO; Michele ARMIRAGLIO; Pierisa PANZANI; Roberta BETTINETTI; Alessandra PUGNETTI; Anna M. NOCENTINI; Gabriele A. TARTARI; Simona MUSAZZI; Giuseppe MORABITO; Angela BOGGERO; Marina MANCA; Michela ROGORA; Rosario MOSELLO; Aldo MARCHETTO

    2004-01-01

    Two small high mountain lakes in the Alps were monitored in 1984-2003 to follow their response to changes in human impact, such as deposition of atmospheric pollutants, fish stocking and climate change. The results were compared to occasional samplings performed in the 1940s, and to the remains found in sediment cores. When monitoring started, the most acid-sensitive of them, Lake Paione Superiore, was acidified, with evident effects in its flora and fauna: benthic diatoms assemblage was shif...

  2. Climate change and birds: perspectives and prospects from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Species with small ranges (<50 000km2) restricted to the two southern African biodiversity hotspots most at risk from climate change — the Cape Floral Kingdom and the Succulent Karoo — are ranked according to low, medium or high risk of extinction. Those restricted to mountain slopes, mountain tops or islands, and ...

  3. Drainage isolation and climate change-driven population expansion shape the genetic structures of Tuber indicum complex in the Hengduan Mountains region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Bang; Zhao, Qi; Xu, Jianping; Qin, Jiao; Yang, Zhu L

    2016-02-24

    The orogenesis of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Quaternary climate changes have played key roles in driving the evolution of flora and fauna in Southwest China, but their effects on higher fungi are poorly addressed. In this study, we investigated the phylogeographic pattern of the Tuber indicum species complex, an economically important fungal group distributed in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our data confirmed the existence of two distinct lineages, T. indicum and T. himalayense, within this species complex. Three geographic groups (Groups W, N and C) were revealed within T. indicum, with Group W found in the paleo-Lancang River region, while Groups N and C corresponded to the two banks along the contemporary Jinsha River, suggesting that rivers have acted as barriers for gene flow among populations from different drainages. Historical range expansion resulted from climate changes was inferred in Group C, contributing to the observed gene flow among geographic populations within this group. Although no significant geographic structure was identified in T. himalayense, evidence of drainage isolation for this species was also detected. Our findings demonstrate that both topographic changes and Quaternary climate oscillations have played important roles in driving the genetic structures of the T. indicum species complex.

  4. Extreme ground motions and Yucca Mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Thomas C.; Abrahamson, Norman A.; Baker, Jack W.; Boore, David M.; Board, Mark; Brune, James N.; Cornell, C. Allin; Whitney, John W.

    2013-01-01

    Yucca Mountain is the designated site of the underground repository for the United States' high-level radioactive waste (HLW), consisting of commercial and military spent nuclear fuel, HLW derived from reprocessing of uranium and plutonium, surplus plutonium, and other nuclear-weapons materials. Yucca Mountain straddles the western boundary of the Nevada Test Site, where the United States has tested nuclear devices since the 1950s, and is situated in an arid, remote, and thinly populated region of Nevada, ~100 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Yucca Mountain was originally considered as a potential underground repository of HLW because of its thick units of unsaturated rocks, with the repository horizon being not only ~300 m above the water table but also ~300 m below the Yucca Mountain crest. The fundamental rationale for a geologic (underground) repository for HLW is to securely isolate these materials from the environment and its inhabitants to the greatest extent possible and for very long periods of time. Given the present climate conditions and what is known about the current hydrologic system and conditions around and in the mountain itself, one would anticipate that the rates of infiltration, corrosion, and transport would be very low—except for the possibility that repository integrity might be compromised by low-probability disruptive events, which include earthquakes, strong ground motion, and (or) a repository-piercing volcanic intrusion/eruption. Extreme ground motions (ExGM), as we use the phrase in this report, refer to the extremely large amplitudes of earthquake ground motion that arise at extremely low probabilities of exceedance (hazard). They first came to our attention when the 1998 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Yucca Mountain was extended to a hazard level of 10-8/yr (a 10-4/yr probability for a 104-year repository “lifetime”). The primary purpose of this report is to summarize the principal results of the ExGM research program

  5. Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

  6. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre

    2018-03-01

    The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains sparsely covered by regolith

  7. The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

    2012-01-01

    Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

  8. Report of early site suitability evaluation of the potential repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younker, J.L.; Andrews, W.B.; Fasano, G.A.; Herrington, C.C.; Mattson, S.R.; Murray, R.C. [Science Applications International Corp., Las Vegas, NV (United States); Ballou, L.B.; Revelli, M.A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Ducharme, A.R.; Shephard, L.E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dudley, W.W.; Hoxie, D.T. [Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States); Herbst, R.J.; Patera, E.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Judd, B.R. [Decision Analysis Co., Portola Valley, CA (United States); Docka, J.A.; Rickertsen, L.D. [Weston Technical Associates, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    This study evaluated the technical suitability of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a potential site for a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of radioactive waste. The evaluation was conducted primarily to determine early in the site characterization program if there are any features or conditions at the site that indicate it is unsuitable for repository development. A secondary purpose was to determine the status of knowledge in the major technical areas that affect the suitability of the site. This early site suitability evaluation (ESSE) was conducted by a team of technical personnel at the request of the Associate Director of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Geologic Disposal, a unit within the DOE`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The Yucca Mountain site has been the subject of such evaluations for over a decade. In 1983, the site was evaluated as part of a screening process to identify potentially acceptable sites. The site was evaluated in greater detail and found suitable for site characterization as part of the Environmental Assessment (EA) (DOE, 1986) required by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA). Additional site data were compiled during the preparation of the Site Characterization Plan (SCP) (DOE, 1988a). This early site suitability evaluation has considered information that was used in preparing both-documents, along with recent information obtained since the EA and SCP were published. This body of information is referred to in this report as ``current information`` or ``available evidence.``

  9. Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of

  10. Influence of spatial resolution on precipitation simulations for the central Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trachte, Katja; Bendix, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The climate of South America is highly influenced by the north-south oriented Andes Mountains. Their complex structure causes modifications of large-scale atmospheric circulations resulting in various mesoscale phenomena as well as a high variability in the local conditions. Due to their height and length the terrain generates distinctly climate conditions between the western and the eastern slopes. While in the tropical regions along the western flanks the conditions are cold and arid, the eastern slopes are dominated by warm-moist and rainy air coming from the Amazon basin. Below 35° S the situation reverses with rather semiarid conditions in the eastern part and temperate rainy climate along southern Chile. Generally, global circulation models (GCMs) describe the state of the global climate and its changes, but are disabled to capture regional or even local features due to their coarse resolution. This is particularly true in heterogeneous regions such as the Andes Mountains, where local driving features, e. g. local circulation systems, highly varies on small scales and thus, lead to a high variability of rainfall distributions. An appropriate technique to overcome this problem and to gain regional and local scale rainfall information is the dynamical downscaling of the global data using a regional climate model (RCM). The poster presents results of the evaluation of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over South America with special focus on the central Andes Mountains of Ecuador. A sensitivity study regarding the cumulus parametrization, microphysics, boundary layer processes and the radiation budget is conducted. With 17 simulations consisting of 16 parametrization scheme combinations and 1 default run a suitable model set-up for climate research in this region is supposed to be evaluated. The simulations were conducted in a two-way nested mode i) to examine the best physics scheme combination for the target and ii) to

  11. Book Review :The Essential Guide to Rocky Mountain Mushrooms by Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    A mushroom guide book, 'The Essential Guide to Rocky Mountain Mushrooms by Habitat' by Cathy L. Cripps, Vera S. Evenson, and Michael Kou (University of Illinois Press, 260 pages), is reviewed in non-technical fashion from the standpoints of format, comprehensiveness, and clarity. Postive features (...

  12. Preparing to Submit a License Application for Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W.J. Arthur; M.D. Voegele

    2005-01-01

    of the United States, approximately 100 miles (160 kilometers) northwest of Las Vegas (Figure 1). The location is remote from population centers, and there are no permanent residents within approximately 14 miles (23 km) of the site. Overall, Nye County has a population density of about two persons per square mile (two persons per 2.5 square km); in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, it is significantly less. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-south-trending ridges extending approximately 25 miles (40 km), and consists of successive layers of fine-grained volcanic tuffs, millions of years old, underlain by older carbonate rocks. The alternating layers of welded and nonwelded volcanic tuffs have differing hydrologic properties that significantly impact the manner in which water moves through the mountain. The repository horizon will be in welded tuff located in the unsaturated zone, more than 1,000 feet (300 meters) above the water table in the present-day climate, and is expected to remain well above the water table during wetter future climate conditions. Future meteorology and climatology at Yucca Mountain are important elements in understanding the amount of water available to potentially interact with the waste

  13. Plant invasions in mountains: global lessons for better management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith L. McDougall; Anzar A. Khuroo; Lloyd L. Loope; Catherine G. Parks; Anibal Pauchard; Zafar A. Reshi; Ian Rushworth; Christoph. Kueffer

    2011-01-01

    Mountains are one of few ecosystems little affected by plant invasions. However, the threat of invasion is likely to increase because of climate change, greater anthropogenic land use, and continuing novel introductions. Preventive management, therefore, will be crucial but can be difficult to promote when more pressing problems are unresolved and predictions are...

  14. Technical changes that would contribute to success in the civilian radioactive waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramspott, L.D.

    1993-01-01

    Many changes have taken place since the SCP safety strategy was formulated; it needs to be revised or replaced. Four concepts would aid in the shift from a rigid, ecelctic, schedule-driven, all-or-nothing program to an incremental, evolving, and experimental but integrated program. These are a simple safety case, reversability, demonstrability, and decoupling operations of a repository from operation of reactors. A simple safety case based on containment can be made for a repository at Yucca Mountain. This containment strategy is based on the dryness of openings at Yucca Mountain, Extended Dry heat management, and long-lived containers. Reversibility is technically believable at Yucca Mountain because of extended retrievability and drift emplacement, if an MRS were co-located with the repository. Because the rock is unsaturated, extended retrievability is technically feasible at Yucca Mountain. Demonstrability could be improved at Yucca Mountain by planning for incremental progression toward operation and closure of a repository, possibly including a shift to underground retrievable storage. Demonstrability can also be improved by using natural analogs. Repository operation can be decoupled from reactor operation by use of an unconstrained MRS facility or at-reactor dry storage and multipurpose storage canister/casks

  15. Study of nuclear waste storage capacity at Yucca mountain repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Wei; Apted, M.; Kessler, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain repository is applying license for storing 70000 MTHM nuclear waste including commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF) and defense high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The 70000 MTHM is a legal not the technical limit. To study the technical limit, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) carried out a systematic study to explore the potential impact if the repository will accept more waste. This paper describes the model and results for evaluating the spent-fuel disposal capacity for a repository at Yucca Mountain from the thermal and hydrological point of view. Two proposed alternative repository designs are analyzed, both of which would fit into the currently well-characterized site and, therefore, not necessitating any additional site characterization at Yucca Mountain. The two- and three-dimensional models for coupled thermo-hydrological analysis extends from the surface to the water table, covering all the major and subgroup rock layers of the planned repository, as well as formations above and below the repository horizon. A dual-porosity and dual-permeability approach is used to model coupled heat and mass transfer through fracture formations. The waste package heating and ventilation are all assumed to follow those of the current design. The results show that the repository is able to accommodate three times the amount of spent fuel compared to the current design, without extra spatial expansion or exceeding current thermal and hydrological constraints. (authors)

  16. Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

    2017-07-01

    Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had

  17. Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Maureen E.; Palen, Wendy J.; Adams, Michael J.; Rochefort, Regina M.

    2014-01-01

    Wetlands in the remote mountains of the western US have undergone two massive ecological “experiments” spanning the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1800s and expanding after World War II, fish and wildlife managers intentionally introduced millions of predatory trout (primarily Oncorhynchus spp) into fishless mountain ponds and lakes across the western states. These new top predators, which now occupy 95% of large mountain lakes, have limited the habitat distributions of native frogs, salamanders, and wetland invertebrates to smaller, more ephemeral ponds where trout do not survive. Now a second “experiment” – anthropogenic climate change – threatens to eliminate many of these ephemeral habitats and shorten wetland hydroperiods. Caught between climate-induced habitat loss and predation from introduced fish, native mountain lake fauna of the western US – especially amphibians – are at risk of extirpation. Targeted fish removals, guided by models of how wetlands will change under future climate scenarios, provide innovative strategies for restoring resilience of wetland ecosystems to climate change.

  18. Modeling unsaturated-zone flow at Rainier Mesa as a possible analog for a future Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Rainier Mesa is structurally similar to Yucca Mountain, and receives precipitation similar to the estimated long-term average for Yucca Mountain. Tunnels through the unsaturated zone at Rainier Mesa have encountered perched water and, after the perched water was drained, flow in fractures and faults. Although flow observations have been primarily qualitative, Rainier Mesa hydrology is a potential analog for Yucca Mountain hydrology in a wetter climate. In this paper, a groundwater flow model that has been used in the performance assessment of Yucca Mountain--the weeps model--is applied to Rainier Mesa. The intent is to gain insight in both Rainier Mesa and the weeps flow model

  19. Topography- and Species-Dependent Climatic Responses in Radial Growth of Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii in the Luyashan Mountains of North-Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wentao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dendroecological techniques were used to examine the relationships between topographic aspects, climate factors and radial growth of Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii in Luyashan Mountains, North-Central China. Four sites were selected at timberline and totally 67 trees and 134 cores were collected. Pearson correlation and regression surface analysis were conducted to reveal the growth-climate relationships. The results indicated that the two species both showed significant negative correlations with temperature during preceding November on the two topographic aspects. On both slope aspects, growth of P. meyeri exhibited significant negative correlations with precipitation in current June, whereas growth of L. principis-rupprechtii showed significant negative correlations with precipitation in preceding September. On north-facing slope, tree growth was limited by low temperature in early growing season, which not shown on south-facing slope. If climate warming continues, L. principis-rupprechtii may be more favored and a reverse between relationships with temperature and precipitation maybe occur in growth of trees. Treeline position on the north-facing slope may possess a greater potential for elevation shifting than the south-facing slope. Our results supply useful information for discussing the potential effect of future climate on the forest growth in North-Central China.

  20. Alternative approaches to assessing the performance and suitability of Yucca Mountain for spent fuel disposal. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuire, R.; Smith, G.; Klos, R.

    1998-11-01

    Significant resources and effort have been expended by EPRI over the past few years in modeling and understanding issues related to high-level radioactive waste disposal. Previous reports have documented the general model used in the EPRI work and specific inputs to that model for examination of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Modeling of the potential Yucca Mountain site is an on-going process, and new data are being collected with which to evaluate and modify models of physical processes. This report is divided into two parts. The first part presents results from specific calculational cases of repository performance, updated for the most recent data and conceptual models. The second part discusses possible alternatives for the components of the assessment context for a repository at Yucca Mountain. Part 2 also presents additional information on time frames and a interaction matrix method of documenting TSPA model interactions. The main purposes of Part of this report is to describe the subsystem and total system performance models and present results and analysis of the results. Part 1 includes presentation of new models of waste container failure that accounts for new container material, a new model of the effect of hydrothermal activity and heterogeneous groundwater flow in the unsaturated zone on temperatures and the distribution of groundwater capable of dripping into the repository drifts. Part 1 also: identifies the key technical components of the candidate spent fuel and HLW disposal facility at Yucca Mountain using IMARC Phase 4; makes recommendations regarding the prioritization of the technical development work remaining; and provides an assessment of the overall technical suitability of the candidate HLW disposal facility at Yucca Mountain

  1. Infiltration on mountain slopes: a comparison of three environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol P. Harden*; P. Delmas Scruggs

    2003-01-01

    Water is well established as a major driver of the geomorphic change that eventually reduces mountains to lower relief landscapes. Nonetheless, within the altitudinal limits of continuous vegetation in humid climates, water is also an essential factor in slope stability. In this paper, we present results from field experiments to determine infiltration rates at...

  2. Mountain Permafrost in the Yukon Territory, Canada: Mapping and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewkowicz, A. G.; Bonnaventure, P.; Schultz, E.; Etzelmuller, B.

    2006-12-01

    The distribution and characteristics of mountain permafrost in North America are poorly known compared to lowland permafrost, and predictions of climatic change impacts are therefore subject to a higher degree of uncertainty. Recent DC resistivity soundings in association with borehole temperature information in the Yukon Territory, show the wide range of permafrost conditions that can exist at sites separated by short distances. To provide baseline information for future modelling, efforts are underway to produce a detailed map of permafrost probability in the mountains of the southern half of the Yukon Territory (60-65°N), an area greater than 200 x 103km2. The methodology is based on the Basal Temperature of Snow (BTS) technique, first developed in the European Alps. Ground surface temperatures measured at the base of snow > 80 cm thick in late winter are an indicator of permafrost presence or absence. We have used this method successfully in three study areas of about 200 km2: first, Wolf Creek basin near Whitehorse (Lewkowicz and Ednie, 2004) and now the western side of the Ruby Range adjacent to Kluane Lake, and the Haines Summit area in northwestern British Columbia. In each area, (1) we installed miniature temperature loggers at the ground surface and in the air to check on the timing of the BTS measurements; (2) we measured BTS values in the elevation zone across which permafrost was expected to become widespread; (3) we modelled the BTS spatial field using elevation (from a 30 m DEM) and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR) as the independent variables; and (4) we used logistic regression to compare the modelled BTS values with pit observations made in late-summer of the presence or absence of frozen ground. Both elevation and PISR were significant in the Wolf Creek and Ruby Range sites which have relatively continental climates and fall within the Upper Yukon-Stikine Basin climatic region (Wahl et al., 1987). For the Haines Summit area, however

  3. Climate change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: a synthesis of past climate, climate projections, and ecosystem implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janine Rice; Andrew Tredennick; Linda A. Joyce

    2012-01-01

    The Shoshone National Forest (Shoshone) covers 2.4 million acres of mountainous topography in northwest Wyoming and is a vital ecosystem that provides clean water, wildlife habitat, timber, grazing, recreational opportunities, and aesthetic value. The Shoshone has experienced and adapted to changes in climate for many millennia, and is currently experiencing a warming...

  4. Climate and Vegetation Effects on Temperate Mountain Forest Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current forest composition may be resilient to typical climatic variability; however, climate trends, combined with projected changes in species composition, may increase tree vulnerability to water stress. A shift in forest composition toward tree species with higher water use h...

  5. Origins of secondary silica within Yucca Mountain, Nye County, southwestern Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moscati, R.J.; Whelan, J.F.

    1996-01-01

    The accuracy of predictions of the hydrologic response of Yucca Mountain to future climate depends largely on how well relations between past climate and hydrology can be resolved. To advance this reconstruction, secondary minerals in and near Yucca Mountain, deposited by ground waters that originated both as surficial recharge at Yucca Mountain and from regional aquifers, are being studied to determine past ground-water sources and chemistries. Preliminary data on stable oxygen isotopes indicate that, although silica (opal, quartz, and chalcedony) and calcite and have formed in similar settings and from somewhat similar fluids, the authors have found no compelling evidence of coprecipitation or formation from identical fluids. If verified by further analyses, this precludes the use of silica-calcite mineral pairs for precise geothermometry. The preliminary data also indicate that opal and calcite occurrences in pedogenic and unsaturated-zone settings are invariably compatible with formation under modern ambient surface or subsurface temperatures. Silica and calcite stable-isotope studies are being integrated with soil geochemical modeling. This modeling will define the soil geochemical condition (climate) leading to opal or calcite deposition and to the transfer functions that may apply at the meteorologic soil unsaturated-zone interfaces. Additional study of pedogenic and unsaturated-zone silica is needed to support these models. The hypothesis that the transformation of vapor-phase tridymite to quartz requires saturated conditions is being tested through stable oxygen-isotope studies of lithophysal tridymite/quartz mixtures. Should this hypothesis be verified, mineralogic analysis by X-ray diffraction theoretically would permit reconstruction of past maximum water-table elevations

  6. The physiology of mountain biking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impellizzeri, Franco M; Marcora, Samuele M

    2007-01-01

    Mountain biking is a popular outdoor recreational activity and an Olympic sport. Cross-country circuit races have a winning time of approximately equal 120 minutes and are performed at an average heart rate close to 90% of the maximum, corresponding to 84% of maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max). More than 80% of race time is spent above the lactate threshold. This very high exercise intensity is related to the fast starting phase of the race; the several climbs, forcing off-road cyclists to expend most of their effort going against gravity; greater rolling resistance; and the isometric contractions of arm and leg muscles necessary for bike handling and stabilisation. Because of the high power output (up to 500W) required during steep climbing and at the start of the race, anaerobic energy metabolism is also likely to be a factor of off-road cycling and deserves further investigation. Mountain bikers' physiological characteristics indicate that aerobic power (VO2max >70 mL/kg/min) and the ability to sustain high work rates for prolonged periods of time are prerequisites for competing at a high level in off-road cycling events. The anthropometric characteristics of mountain bikers are similar to climbers and all-terrain road cyclists. Various parameters of aerobic fitness are correlated to cross-country performance, suggesting that these tests are valid for the physiological assessment of competitive mountain bikers, especially when normalised to body mass. Factors other than aerobic power and capacity might influence off-road cycling performance and require further investigation. These include off-road cycling economy, anaerobic power and capacity, technical ability and pre-exercise nutritional strategies.

  7. How has climate change altered network connectivity in a mountain stream network?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.; Wondzell, S. M.; Johnson, S.

    2017-12-01

    Connectivity along river networks is broadly recognized as dynamic, with seasonal and event-based expansion and contraction of the network extent. Intermittently flowing streams are particularly important as they define a crucial threshold for continuously connected waters that enable migration by aquatic species. In the Pacific northwestern U.S., changes in atmospheric circulation have been found to alter rainfall patterns and result in decreased summer low-flows in the region. However, the impact of this climate dynamic on network connectivity is heretofore unstudied. Thus, we ask: How has connectivity in the riparian corridor changed in response to observed changes in climate? In this study we take the well-studied H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest as representative of mountain river networks in the Pacific northwestern U.S. First, we analyze 63 years of stream gauge information from a network of 11 gauges to document observed changes in timing and magnitude of stream discharge. We found declining magnitudes of seasonal low-flows and shifting seasonality of water export from the catchment, both of which we attribute to changes in precipitation timing and storage as snow vs. rainfall. Next, we use these discharge data to drive a reduced-complexity model of the river network to simulate network connectivity over 63 years. Model results show that network contraction (i.e., minimum network extent) has decreased over the past 63 years. Unexpectedly, the increasing winter peak flows did not correspond with increasing network expansion, suggesting a geologic control on maximum flowing network extent. We find dynamic expansion and contraction of the network primarily occurs during period of catchment discharge less than about 1 m3/s at the outlet, whereas the network extent is generally constant for discharges from 1 to 300 m3/s. Results of our study are of interest to scientists focused on connectivity as a control on ecological processes both directly (e.g., fish

  8. Low offspring survival in mountain pine beetle infesting the resistant Great Basin bristlecone pine supports the preference-performance hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika L Eidson

    Full Text Available The preference-performance hypothesis states that ovipositing phytophagous insects will select host plants that are well-suited for their offspring and avoid host plants that do not support offspring performance (survival, development and fitness. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, a native insect herbivore in western North America, can successfully attack and reproduce in most species of Pinus throughout its native range. However, mountain pine beetles avoid attacking Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva, despite recent climate-driven increases in mountain pine beetle populations at the high elevations where Great Basin bristlecone pine grows. Low preference for a potential host plant species may not persist if the plant supports favorable insect offspring performance, and Great Basin bristlecone pine suitability for mountain pine beetle offspring performance is unclear. We infested cut bolts of Great Basin bristlecone pine and two susceptible host tree species, limber (P. flexilis and lodgepole (P. contorta pines with adult mountain pine beetles and compared offspring performance. To investigate the potential for variation in offspring performance among mountain pine beetles from different areas, we tested beetles from geographically-separated populations within and outside the current range of Great Basin bristlecone pine. Although mountain pine beetles constructed galleries and laid viable eggs in all three tree species, extremely few offspring emerged from Great Basin bristlecone pine, regardless of the beetle population. Our observed low offspring performance in Great Basin bristlecone pine corresponds with previously documented low mountain pine beetle attack preference. A low preference-low performance relationship suggests that Great Basin bristlecone pine resistance to mountain pine beetle is likely to be retained through climate-driven high-elevation mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

  9. Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Serafin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The exchange of heat, momentum, and mass in the atmosphere over mountainous terrain is controlled by synoptic-scale dynamics, thermally driven mesoscale circulations, and turbulence. This article reviews the key challenges relevant to the understanding of exchange processes in the mountain boundary layer and outlines possible research priorities for the future. The review describes the limitations of the experimental study of turbulent exchange over complex terrain, the impact of slope and valley breezes on the structure of the convective boundary layer, and the role of intermittent mixing and wave–turbulence interaction in the stable boundary layer. The interplay between exchange processes at different spatial scales is discussed in depth, emphasizing the role of elevated and ground-based stable layers in controlling multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere over and near mountains. Implications of the current understanding of exchange processes over mountains towards the improvement of numerical weather prediction and climate models are discussed, considering in particular the representation of surface boundary conditions, the parameterization of sub-grid-scale exchange, and the development of stochastic perturbation schemes.

  10. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  11. Human and climate impact on ¹⁵N natural abundance of plants and soils in high-mountain ecosystems: a short review and two examples from the Eastern Pamirs and Mt. Kilimanjaro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zech, Michael; Bimüller, Carolin; Hemp, Andreas; Samimi, Cyrus; Broesike, Christina; Hörold, Claudia; Zech, Wolfgang

    2011-09-01

    Population pressure increasingly endangers high-mountain ecosystems such as the pastures in the Eastern Pamirs and the mountain forests on Mt. Kilimanjaro. At the same time, these ecosystems constitute the economic basis for millions of people living there. In our study, we, therefore, aimed at characterising the land-use effects on soil degradation and N-cycling by determining the natural abundance of (15)N. A short review displays that δ(15)N of plant-soil systems may often serve as an integrated indicator of N-cycles with more positive δ(15)N values pointing towards N-losses. Results for the high-mountain pastures in the Eastern Pamirs show that intensively grazed pastures are significantly enriched in (15)N compared to the less-exploited pastures by 3.5 ‰, on average. This can be attributed to soil organic matter degradation, volatile nitrogen losses, nitrogen leaching and a general opening of the N-cycle. Similarly, the intensively degraded savanna soils, the cultivated soils and the soils under disturbed forests on the foothill of Mt. Kilimanjaro reveal very positive δ(15)N values around 6.5 ‰. In contrast, the undisturbed forest soils in the montane zone are more depleted in (15)N, indicating that here the N-cycle is relatively closed. However, significantly higher δ(15)N values characterise the upper montane forest zone at the transition to the subalpine zone. We suggest that this reflects N-losses by the recently monitored and climate change and antropogenically induced increasing fire frequency pushing the upper montane rainforest boundary rapidly downhill. Overall, we conclude that the analysis of the (15)N natural abundance in high-mountain ecosystems is a purposeful tool for detecting land-use- or climate change-induced soil degradation and N-cycle opening.

  12. School Climate Assessment Programs. Technical Assistance Bulletin 38.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National School Resource Network, Washington, DC.

    Numerous studies indicate that climate, the prevailing "feeling" of the environment, not only contributes to behavioral and situational outcomes, but that climate can be changed to help bring about the behaviors and outcomes desired. Researchers have identified characteristics of positive school climates and ways of determining the presence or…

  13. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  14. Assessment of flora condition and transformation extent at the Degelen mountain massif

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuleubaev, B.A.; Sejsebaev, A.T.; Sultanova, B.M.; Dzhanin, B.T.

    2000-01-01

    The article describes current condition of vegetation at the Degelen mountain massif and assessment of vegetation disturbance in areas of underground nuclear testing. It also presents results of studying flora transformation, species and cinotic composition, structural and spatial distribution within the Degelen technical site. (author)

  15. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TEACHER’S SOCIAL COMPETENCE IN RURAL MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Varetska

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempted to illuminate the importance of social competence for elementary school teacher in rural mountain environment. The author analyzes the essential features, social and pedagogical challenges in rural schools, sensible changes characteristic of the modern village. Special attention is paid to the rural mountain school as a center of educational and social activities, its peculiarities and factors causing them, including the effect of mountain environment, climatic conditions, administration method, traditions, etc. It’s pointed out that teachers are also exposed to the effect of mountain environment. They work under tough weather conditions, often in a closed team, in the atmosphere of professional, social, economic and political information scarcity, which leads to a rapid “aging”, gradual professional, social decline and social competence development recession. The author proves the need to consider the environmental impact in the design of modern school, the need for innovative processes while maintaining the national spirit and the environment; the development of social competence of elementary school teacher in constantly changing social rural mountain environment is in the focus of attention.

  16. Mountain Forests and Sustainable Development: The Potential for Achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Gratzer

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The world is facing numerous and severe environmental, social, and economic challenges. To address these, in September 2015 the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted the resolution Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The United Nations' 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs and their 169 targets are ambitious, broadly encompassing, and indivisible. They are intended to guide nations and communities toward attaining healthy and peaceful livelihoods free of poverty and hunger. Collectively the goals envision sound and safe environments, where global threats like climate change are successfully combated through both mitigation and adaptation. Agenda 2030 envisages sustainable production patterns with inclusive, effective economies and institutions. It is of specific relevance to mountain communities, where the population is predominantly rural and half of the rural inhabitants experience food insecurity and are often highly dependent on forest resources. Mountain forests also contribute to human welfare well beyond the local community: through functions such as climate and hydrological services provided at regional and global scales, and harvested commodities traded at multiple economic scales. In this introductory essay we argue that sustainable forest management in mountain areas disproportionately contributes to achieving the SDGs. We discuss (1 the potential of mountain forests to help achieve SDGs in mountainous regions and beyond, (2 the potential of the SDGs to help solve severe socioeconomic and ecological problems in forested mountain areas, and (3 challenges and opportunities associated with implementing the SDGs. We base our argumentation also on the 8 papers presented in this Focus Issue of Mountain Research and Development. Together, they establish a clear connection between sustainable use and protection of mountain forests and vital ecosystem services upon which many regions depend. We

  17. The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa M. Modrick

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Small watersheds (O[25 km2] in the mountain regions of southern California comprise the study region. Study focus: This paper examines changes in flash flood occurrence in southern California resulting from projected climatic change. The methodology synthesizes elements of meteorological modeling, hydrology and geomorphology into an integrated modeling approach to define flash flood occurrence in a systematic and consistent way on a regional basis with high spatial and temporal resolution appropriate for flash flooding. A single climate model with three-dimensional atmospheric detail was used as input to drive simulations for historical and future periods. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate an increase in flash flood occurrence for the study region. For two distributed hydrologic models employed, the increase in flash flood occurrence frequency is on average between 30% and 40%. Regional flash flood occurrence is characterized by near saturation of the upper soil layer, and wider ranges in lower soil layer saturation and in precipitation. Overall, a decrease in the total number of precipitation events was found, although with increased precipitation intensity, increased event duration, and higher soil saturation conditions for the 21st century. This combination could signify more hazardous conditions, with fewer precipitation events but higher rainfall intensity and over soils with higher initial soil moisture saturation, leading to more frequent occurrence of flash floods. Keywords: Flash flooding, Climate change, Soil moisture, Precipitation, Distributed hydrologic modeling

  18. Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2016-01-01

    Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

  19. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

  20. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  1. Shrubline but not treeline advance matches climate velocity in montane ecosystems of south-central Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dial, Roman J; Smeltz, T Scott; Sullivan, Patrick F; Rinas, Christina L; Timm, Katriina; Geck, Jason E; Tobin, S Carl; Golden, Trevor S; Berg, Edward C

    2016-05-01

    Tall shrubs and trees are advancing into many tundra and wetland ecosystems but at a rate that often falls short of that predicted due to climate change. For forest, tall shrub, and tundra ecosystems in two pristine mountain ranges of Alaska, we apply a Bayesian, error-propagated calculation of expected elevational rise (climate velocity), observed rise (biotic velocity), and their difference (biotic inertia). We show a sensitive dependence of climate velocity on lapse rate and derive biotic velocity as a rigid elevational shift. Ecosystem presence identified from recent and historic orthophotos ~50 years apart was regressed on elevation. Biotic velocity was estimated as the difference between critical point elevations of recent and historic logistic fits divided by time between imagery. For both mountain ranges, the 95% highest posterior density of climate velocity enclosed the posterior distributions of all biotic velocities. In the Kenai Mountains, mean tall shrub and climate velocities were both 2.8 m y(-1). In the better sampled Chugach Mountains, mean tundra retreat was 1.2 m y(-1) and climate velocity 1.3 m y(-1). In each mountain range, the posterior mode of tall woody vegetation velocity (the complement of tundra) matched climate velocity better than either forest or tall shrub alone, suggesting competitive compensation can be important. Forest velocity was consistently low at 0.1-1.1 m y(-1), indicating treeline is advancing slowly. We hypothesize that the high biotic inertia of forest ecosystems in south-central Alaska may be due to competition with tall shrubs and/or more complex climate controls on the elevational limits of trees than tall shrubs. Among tall shrubs, those that disperse farthest had lowest inertia. Finally, the rapid upward advance of woody vegetation may be contributing to regional declines in Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli), a poorly dispersing alpine specialist herbivore with substantial biotic inertia due to dispersal reluctance. © 2015

  2. 2009 Climate Change Research Strategy: Rocky Mountain Research Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate change and shifting demographics influence the landscape and the social and economic systems of the Interior West. Climate change impacts are already evident, as seen in declining snowpacks, changes in runoff timing and intensity, increasing fire frequency and severity, increasing drought frequency and severity, and rising temperatures.

  3. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Carretier

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains

  4. Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, C; Palmé, A E; Felber, F

    2007-01-01

    Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.

  5. Interactions between Shrubs and Permafrost in the Torngat Mountains, Northern Labrador, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewkowicz, A.; Way, R. G.; Hermanutz, L.; Trant, A.; Siegwart Collier, L.; Whitaker, D.

    2017-12-01

    Discontinuous permafrost is acutely sensitive to climate warming and vegetation dynamics. Shrub height is positively correlated with accumulation of snow in the tundra resulting in warming of the ground in winter, and greater shading and lower surface temperatures in summer. Rapid greening due to climate warming has been observed throughout northeastern Canada and particularly in the coastal mountainous terrain of the Torngat Mountains National Park. Our research examines how this shrubification in the Torngat Mountains is modifying permafrost characteristics using observations which extend over a 100 km south-north transect from the sporadic zone (Saglek, Torr Bay) to where permafrost is widespread (Nakvak Brook, Kangalaksiorvik Lake) and potentially continuous (Komaktorvik River). We use air and ground temperature monitoring, vegetation surveys, dendrochronology, frost probing and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to describe the complex interactions between shrub growth, geomorphology, climate and permafrost in a region where climate warming is rapidly altering the landscape. Preliminary analysis of field data shows low resistivity anomalies in the ERT profiles at some sites with thin permafrost, interpreted as unfrozen zones correlated with areas of tall shrubs (Alnus spp., Salix spp. and Betula glandulosa; ranging from prostrate to 2 m). Elsewhere, high resistivities extend to the base of the ERT profiles, indicating thicker permafrost, and no obvious impact of medium to low-prostrate shrubs (Salix spp., Betula glandulosa, Rhododendron spp., and Vaccinium spp.; up to 50 cm). Permafrost is interpreted to be present at most sites with low or prostrate shrubs, except where hydrological conditions favour warmer ground temperatures. We infer that the net impact of increasing shrub heights on the active layer and permafrost depends on antecedent ground temperatures and surficial geology. Increasing shrub heights may cause permafrost degradation at sites where

  6. Downscaling of the global climate model data for the mass balance calculation of mountain glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Morozova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a hybrid method of downscaling of the GCM‑generated meteorological fields to the characteristic spatial resolution which is usually used for modeling of a single mountain glacier mass balance. The main purpose of the study is to develop a reliable forecasting method to evaluate future state of moun‑ tain glaciation under changing climatic conditions. The method consists of two stages. In the first or dynamical stage, we use results of calculations of the regional numerical model HadRM3P for the Black Sea‑Caspian region with a spatial resolution of 25 km [22]. Initial conditions for the HadRM3P were provided by the GCM devel‑ oped in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4 [18]. Calculations were carried out for two time periods: the present climate (1971–2000 and climate in the late 21st century (2071–2100 according to the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5. On the second stage of downscaling, further regionalization is achieved by projecting of RCM‑generated data to the high‑resolution (25 m digital altitude model in a domain enclosing a target glacier. Altitude gradients of the surface air temperature and precipitation were derived from the model data. Further on, both were corrected using data of observations. Incoming shortwave radiation was calculated in the mass balance model separately, taking into account characteristics of the slope, i.e. exposition and shading of each cell. Then, the method was tested for glaciers Marukh (Western Caucasus and Jankuat (Central Caucasus, both for the present‑day and for future climates. At the end of the 21st century, the air tem‑ perature rise predicted for the summer months was calculated to be about 5–6 °C, and the result for the winter to be minus 2–3 °C. Change in annual precipitation is not significant, less than 10%. Increase in the total short‑ wave radiation will be about 5%. These changes will result in the fact that

  7. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  8. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  9. Application of a hybrid method for downscaling of the global climate model fields for evaluation of future surface mass balance of mountain glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morozova, Polina; Rybak, Oleg; Kaminskaia, Mariia

    2017-04-01

    Mountain glaciers in the Caucasus have been degrading during the last century. During this time period they lost approximately one-third in area and half of their volume. Prediction of their evolution in changing climate is crucial for the local economy because hydrological regime in the territory north to the Main Caucasus Chain is mainly driven by glacier run-off. For future projections of glaciers' surface mass balance (SMB) we apply a hybrid method of downscaling of GCM-generated meteorological fields from the global scale to the characteristic spatial resolution normally used for modeling of a single mountain glacier SMB. A method consists of two stages. On the first, dynamical stage, we use the results of calculations of regional climate model (RCM) HadRM3P for the Black Sea-Caspian region with a spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. Initial and boundary conditions for HadRM3P are provided by an AO GCM INMCM developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia). Calculations were carried out for two time slices: the present (reference) climate (1971-2000 years) and climate in the late 21st century (2071-2100 years) according to scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5. On the second stage of downscaling, further regionalization is achieved by projecting of RCM-generated data to the high-resolution (25 m) digital elevation models in a domain enclosing target glaciers (Marukh in the Western Caucasus and Djankuat in the Central Caucasus, both being typical valley glaciers). Elevation gradient of surface air temperature and precipitation were derived from the model data. Further, results were corrected using data of observations. The incoming shortwave radiation is calculated separately, taking into account slopes, aspects and shade effect. In the end of the current century expected air temperature growth in the Central and Western Caucasus is about 5-6 °C (summer), and 2-3 °C (winter). Reduction in annual precipitation is not

  10. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tovar

    Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

  11. Regional climate response collaboratives: Multi-institutional support for climate resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averyt, Kristen; Derner, Justin D.; Dilling, Lisa; Guerrero, Rafael; Joyce, Linda A.; McNeeley, Shannon; McNie, Elizabeth; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ojima, Dennis; O'Malley, Robin; Peck, Dannele; Ray, Andrea J.; Reeves, Matt; Travis, William

    2018-01-01

    Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons learned from a multi-institutional “regional climate response collaborative” that comprises three different federally-supported climate service entities in the Rocky Mountain west and northern plains region. These lessons include leveraging different strengths of each partner, creating deliberate mechanisms to increase cross-entity communication and joint ownership of projects, and placing a common priority on stakeholder-relevant research and outcomes. We share the conditions that fostered successful collaboration, which can be transferred elsewhere, and suggest mechanisms for overcoming potential barriers. Synergies are essential for producing actionable research that informs climate-related decisions for stakeholders and ultimately enhances climate resilience at regional scales.

  12. MRS role in reducing technical uncertainties in geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramspott, L.D.

    1990-06-01

    A high-level nuclear waste repository has inherent technical uncertainty due to its first-of-a-kind nature and the unprecedented time over which it must function. Three possible technical modifications to the currently planned US high-level nuclear waste system are reviewed in this paper. These modifications would be facilitated by inclusion of a monitored retrievable storage (MRS) in the system. The modifications are (1) an underground MRS at Yucca Mountain, (2) a phased repository, and (3) a ''cold'' repository. These modifications are intended to enhance scientific confidence that a repository system would function satisfactorily despite technical uncertainty. 12 refs

  13. North American Monsoon Response to Eemian Climate Forcings and its Effect on Rocky Mountain Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    The key to recognizing and predicting future changes in regional climate and ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of paleovariations. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130-116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth history when temperatures are believed to have exceeded those of today. In this study, we are focusing on the response of the North American monsoon (NAM) to shifts in orbital forcings during LIG. In particular, we are using regional climate model (RegCM) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate changes in the strength, timing, duration, and amount of moisture transported from different sources during the NAM season. Understanding these variations is critical to forecast seasonal supply of water to the southwestern U.S. under current warming conditions. In addition, cellulose extracted stable isotopes from Rocky Mountain Eemian wood samples provides both a tool to diagnose the model simulations and to evaluate the response of western U.S. tree species to changes in temperature and moisture availability. Our preliminary results indicate enhanced summer precipitation, wind shifts and changes in NAM characteristics in response to increased Northern Hemisphere insolation. The following features were observed: (1) The NAM strengthens and extends slightly more northward during the Eemian due to a shift in upper-level divergence. (2) The onset and duration of the NAM seems to be similar between modern and Eemian simulations. (3) Consistent with modern observations, simulations suggest a western NAM region in Arizona that receives most of its monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California, while the eastern NAM region in New Mexico obtains most of its summer rains from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Eemian, we see a spatial shift from more depleted to more enriched source waters throughout the monsoon season. These changes in the summer climate are confirmed by the tree ring isotope data, which show a

  14. Links between climate change, water-table depth, and water chemistry in a mineralized mountain watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Andrew H.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Caine, Jonathan S.; Todd, Andrew S.

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that climate change is causing rising solute concentrations in mountain lakes and streams. These changes may be more pronounced in mineralized watersheds due to the sensitivity of sulfide weathering to changes in subsurface oxygen transport. Specific causal mechanisms linking climate change and accelerated weathering rates have been proposed, but in general remain entirely hypothetical. For mineralized watersheds, a favored hypothesis is that falling water tables caused by declining recharge rates allow an increasing volume of sulfide-bearing rock to become exposed to air, thus oxygen. Here, we test the hypothesis that falling water tables are the primary cause of an increase in metals and SO4 (100-400%) observed since 1980 in the Upper Snake River (USR), Colorado. The USR drains an alpine watershed geologically and climatologically representative of many others in mineralized areas of the western U.S. Hydrologic and chemical data collected from 2005 to 2011 in a deep monitoring well (WP1) at the top of the USR watershed are utilized. During this period, both water table depths and groundwater SO4 concentrations have generally increased in the well. A numerical model was constructed using TOUGHREACT that simulates pyrite oxidation near WP1, including groundwater flow and oxygen transport in both saturated and unsaturated zones. The modeling suggests that a falling water table could produce an increase in metals and SO4 of a magnitude similar to that observed in the USR (up to 300%). Future water table declines may produce limited increases in sulfide weathering high in the watershed because of the water table dropping below the depth of oxygen penetration, but may continue to enhance sulfide weathering lower in the watershed where water tables are shallower. Advective air (oxygen) transport in the unsaturated zone caused by seasonally variable recharge and associated water table fluctuations was found to have little influence on pyrite

  15. Mountains of the world: vulnerable water towers for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerli, Bruno; Viviroli, Daniel; Weingartner, Rolf

    2004-11-01

    Mountains as "Water Towers" play an important role for the surrounding lowlands. This is particularly true of the world's semiarid and arid zones, where the contributions of mountains to total discharge are 50-90%. Taking into account the increasing water scarcity in these regions, especially for irrigation and food production, then today's state of knowledge in mountain hydrology makes sustainable water management and an assessment of vulnerability quite difficult. Following the IPCC report, the zone of maximum temperature increase in a 2 x CO2 state extends from low elevation in the arctic and sub-arctic to high elevation in the tropics and subtropics. The planned GCOS climate stations do not reach this elevation of high temperature change, although there are many high mountain peaks with the necessary sensitive and vulnerable ecosystems. Worldwide, more than 700 million people live in mountain areas, of these, 625 million are in developing countries. Probably more than half of these 625 million people are vulnerable to food insecurity. Consequences of this insecurity can be emigration or overuse of mountain ecosystems. Overuse of the ecosystems will, ultimately, have negative effects on the environment and especially on water resources. New research initiatives and new high mountain observatories are needed in order to understand the ongoing natural and human processes and their impacts on the adjacent lowlands.

  16. Influence of the orographic roughness of glacier valleys across the Transantarctic Mountains in an atmospheric regional model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gallee, Hubert [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Saint Martin d' Heres (France)

    2011-03-15

    Glacier valleys across the Transantarctic Mountains are not properly taken into account in climate models, because of their coarse resolution. Nonetheless, glacier valleys control katabatic winds in this region, and the latter are thought to affect the climate of the Ross Sea sector, frsater formation to snow mass balance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the subgrid-scale orography in the Transantarctic Mountains using a 20-km atmospheric regional model. A classical orographic roughness length parametrization is modified to produce either smooth or rough valleys. A one-year simulation shows that katabatic winds in the Transantarctic Mountains are strongly improved using smooth valleys rather than rough valleys. Pressure and temperature fields are affected by the representation of the orographic roughness, specifically in the Transantarctic Mountains and over the Ross Ice Shelf. A smooth representation of escarpment regions shows better agreement with automatic weather station observations than a rough representation. This work stresses the need to improve the representation of subgrid-scale orography to simulate realistic katabatic flows. This paper also provides a way of improving surface winds in an atmospheric model without increasing its resolution. (orig.)

  17. NCDC Technical Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NCDC Technical Reports is a set of retrospective analyses produced by the Research Customer Service Group and the National Climatic Data Center from 1995 to 2008....

  18. How fast is the denudation of the Taiwan Mountains? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siame, L. L.; Derrieux, F.; KANG, C.; Bourles, D. L.; Braucher, R.; Léanni, L.; Chen, R.; Lee, J.; Chu, H.; Chang, C.; Byrne, T. B.

    2013-12-01

    Orogenic settings are particularly well suited to study and quantify the coupling relations between tectonics, topography, climate and erosion since they record tectonic evolution along convergent margins and the connection between deep and surface processes. However, the interaction of deep and shallow processes is still poorly understood and the role they play in the exhumation of rocks, the structural and kinematic evolution of orogenic wedges, and the relation between tectonics and climate-dependent surface processes are still debated. Therefore, quantification of denudation rates in a wide range of climatic and tectonic settings, as well as at various time and space scales, is a critical step in calibrating and validating landscape evolution models. In this study, we focus on the mountains of the arc-continent collision in Taiwan, which serve as one of the best examples in the world to understand and study mountain building processes. We investigate the pattern and magnitude of denudation rates at the scale of the orogenic system, deriving denudation rates from in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclide 10Be concentrations measured in (1) river-borne quartz minerals sampled at major watersheds outlets, and (2) bedrock outcrops along ridge crests and at summits located along the major drainage divide of the belt. We determined a denudation pattern showing a clear discrepancy between the western (1.7×0.2 mm/yr) and eastern (4.1×0.5 mm/yr) sides of the range. Conversely, bedrock denudation determined along ridge crests, summits and flat surfaces preserved at high elevations are characterized by significantly lower denudation rates on the order of 0.24×0.03 mm/yr. Altogether, the cosmogenic-derived denudation pattern at the orogen-scale reflects fundamental mountain building processes from frontal accretion in the Western Foothills to basal accretion and fast exhumation in the Central Range. Applied to the whole orogen, such field-based approach thus provides

  19. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2008-04-27

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

  20. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  1. Climate change and the future of freshwater fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Isaak

    2014-01-01

    My first awareness of the importance that climate has for fish came during my summer field seasons as a Ph.D. student at the University of Wyoming. While conducting electrofishing surveys in the climatically diverse Salt River basin along the mountainous border between Wyoming and Idaho, I observed spatial patterns in species distributions and abundance that strongly...

  2. Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghnath Dhimal

    Full Text Available Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs, namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA guidelines.We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level. Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.

  3. Changes in composition, ecology and structure of high-mountain vegetation: a re-visitation study over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Alberto; Frate, Ludovico; Carranza, Maria Laura; Attorre, Fabio; Pelino, Giovanni; Stanisci, Angela

    2016-01-27

    High-mountain ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change, causing biodiversity loss, habitat degradation and landscape modifications. However, very few detailed studies have focussed on plant biodiversity in the high mountains of the Mediterranean. In this study, we investigated the long-term changes that have occurred in the composition, structure and ecology of high-mountain vegetation in the central Apennines (Majella) over the last 42 years. We performed a re-visitation study, using historical and newly collected vegetation data to explore which ecological and structural features have been the most successful in coping with climatic changes. Vegetation changes were analysed by comparing geo-referenced phytosociological relevés collected in high-mountain habitats (dolines, gentle slopes and ridges) on the Majella massif in 1972 and in 2014. Composition analysis was performed by detrended correspondence analysis, followed by an analysis of similarities for statistical significance assessment and by similarity percentage procedure (SIMPER) for identifying which species indicate temporal changes. Changes in ecological and structural indicators were analysed by a permutational multivariate analysis of variance, followed by a post hoc comparison. Over the last 42 years, clear floristic changes and significant ecological and structural variations occurred. We observed a significant increase in the thermophilic and mesonitrophilic plant species and an increment in the frequencies of hemicryptophytes. This re-visitation study in the Apennines agrees with observations in other alpine ecosystems, providing new insights for a better understanding of the effects of global change on Mediterranean high-mountain biodiversity. The observed changes in floristic composition, the thermophilization process and the shift towards a more nutrient-demanding vegetation are likely attributable to the combined effect of higher temperatures and the increase in soil nutrients

  4. Environmental Controls Over Actinobacteria Communities in Ecological Sensitive Yanshan Mountains Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Hui; Shi, Xunxun; Wang, Xiaofei; Hao, Huanhuan; Zhang, Xiu-Min; Zhang, Li-Ping

    2016-01-01

    The Yanshan Mountains are one of the oldest mountain ranges in the world. They are located in an ecologically sensitive zone in northern China near the Hu Huanyong Line. In this metagenomic study, we investigated the diversity of Actinobacteria in soils at 10 sites (YS1–YS10) on the Yanshan Mountains. First, we assessed the effect of different soil prtreatment on Actinobacteria recovery. With the soil pretreatment method: air drying of the soil sample, followed by exposure to 120°C for 1 h, we observed the higher Actinobacteria diversity in a relatively small number of clone libraries. No significant differences were observed in the Actinobacterial diversity of soils from sites YS2, YS3, YS4, YS6, YS8, YS9, or YS10 (P > 0.1). However, there were differences (P < 0.05) from the YS7 site and other sites, especially in response to environmental change. And we observed highly significant differences (P < 0.001) in Actinobacterial diversity of the soil from YS7 and that from YS4 and YS8 sites. The climatic characteristics of mean active accumulated temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual mean temperature, and biogeochemical data of total phosphorus contributed to the diversity of Actinobacterial communities in soils at YS1, YS3, YS4, and YS5 sites. Compared to the climatic factors, the biogeochemical factors mostly contributed in shaping the Actinobacterial community. This work provides evidence that the diversity of Actinobacterial communities in soils from the Yashan Mountains show regional biogeographic patterns and that community membership change along the north-south distribution of the Hu Huanyong Line. PMID:27047461

  5. Geomorphic control on the δ15N of mountain forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. Hilton

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Mountain forests are subject to high rates of physical erosion which can export particulate nitrogen from ecosystems. However, the impact of geomorphic processes on nitrogen budgets remains poorly constrained. We have used the elemental and isotopic composition of soil and plant organic matter to investigate nitrogen cycling in the mountain forest of Taiwan, from 24 sites with distinct geomorphic (topographic slope and climatic (precipitation, temperature characteristics. The organic carbon to nitrogen ratio of soil organic matter decreased with soil 14C age, providing constraint on average rates of nitrogen loss using a mass balance model. Model predictions suggest that present day estimates of nitrogen deposition exceed contemporary and historic nitrogen losses. We found ∼6‰ variability in the stable isotopic composition (δ15N of soil and plants which was not related to soil 14C age or climatic conditions. Instead, δ15N was significantly, negatively correlated with topographic slope. Using the mass balance model, we demonstrate that the correlation can be explained by an increase in nitrogen loss by non-fractioning pathways on steeper slopes, where physical erosion most effectively removes particulate nitrogen. Published data from forests on steep slopes are consistent with the correlation. Based on our dataset and these observations, we hypothesise that variable physical erosion rates can significantly influence soil δ15N, and suggest particulate nitrogen export is a major, yet underappreciated, loss term in the nitrogen budget of mountain forests.

  6. A lineament analysis of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, J.J.

    1988-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 was signed into law on January 7, 1983. It specifies procedures for the Department of Energy in the selection of a high level nuclear waste repository. Federal Environmental Protection Agency standards require adequate isolation of waste from the biosphere for 10,000 years. The law considers such geologic factors as tectonic stability, igneous activity, hydrologic conditions and natural resources to be of primary concern. Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada is one of three sites selected for further consideration in the site characterization process. The Nuclear Waste Project Office (NWPO) within the Agency for Nuclear Projects of the State of Nevada is conducting an independent scientific assessment of the proposed site. The remote sensing technical assessment is one of seven task groups conducting review and research into the suitability of Yucca Mountain. The study undertaken by the Remote Sensing Group was that of a lineament analysis with regard to the site's structural relationship within a regional tectonic framework. Lineaments mapped from synoptic imagery may prove to represent structural zones of weakness. These zones may provide pathways for the infiltration of groundwater, conduits for the extrusion of magma or be reactivated as stress conditions change. This paper describes the methodology for a lineament analysis of the Yucca Mountain area

  7. Quantifying the controls on potential soil production rates: a case study of the San Gabriel Mountains, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pelletier

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The potential soil production rate, i.e., the upper limit at which bedrock can be converted into transportable material, limits how fast erosion can occur in mountain ranges in the absence of widespread landsliding in bedrock or intact regolith. Traditionally, the potential soil production rate has been considered to be solely dependent on climate and rock characteristics. Data from the San Gabriel Mountains of California, however, suggest that topographic steepness may also influence potential soil production rates. In this paper I test the hypothesis that topographically induced stress opening of preexisting fractures in the bedrock or intact regolith beneath hillslopes of the San Gabriel Mountains increases potential soil production rates in steep portions of the range. A mathematical model for this process predicts a relationship between potential soil production rates and average slope consistent with published data. Once the effects of average slope are accounted for, a small subset of the data suggests that cold temperatures may limit soil production rates at the highest elevations of the range due to the influence of temperature on vegetation growth. These results suggest that climate and rock characteristics may be the sole controls on potential soil production rates as traditionally assumed but that the porosity of bedrock or intact regolith may evolve with topographic steepness in a way that enhances the persistence of soil cover in compressive-stress environments. I develop an empirical equation that relates potential soil production rates in the San Gabriel Mountains to the average slope and a climatic index that accounts for temperature limitations on soil production rates at high elevations. Assuming a balance between soil production and erosion rates on the hillslope scale, I illustrate the interrelationships among potential soil production rates, soil thickness, erosion rates, and topographic steepness that result from the

  8. Relationships between vegetation and climate change in Transbaikalia, Siberia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I. [V.N. Sukachev Inst. of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation)

    2002-10-01

    This paper demonstrated how vegetation of the Lake Baikal basin may respond to climate change at a mountain biome (an orobiome over the entire basin) and a stand in a locality. An orobiome vegetation model was developed along with a higher resolution stand model based on climatic parameters. Regional climates were modeled based on physiology and site climates based on topography. Bioclimatic multiple regression models were then developed to predict regional vegetation and forest stand characteristics distribution over a mountain range in Central Transbaikalia under current and future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic models were combined with climatic layers of different resolutions. Tree species composition and wood volume was predicted based on 2 climate indices - temperature sums (base 5 degrees C) and the dryness index. Results indicate that lowland vegetation will shift 250 m upslope and highland vegetation will shift 450 m upslope. This will significantly reduce the tundra and light-needled taiga, and will expand the forest-steppe. Results also indicate that the total phytomass within the entire basin will not change much. Stand phytomass across the basin will, however, increase. The model used in this study does not include climate-forcing factors such as wind, snow and permafrost. The model is open to new development to include a dynamic components that would inject vitality into the model. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  9. Fire, Ice and Water: Glaciologic, Paleoclimate and Anthropogenic Linkages During Past Mega-Droughts in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M. J.; Rupper, S.; Codding, B.; Schaefer, J.; Hess, M.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine glaciers provide a valuable water source during prolonged drought events. We explore whether long-term climate dynamics and associated glacier changes within mountain drainage basins and adjacent landscapes ultimately influence how prehistoric human populations choose settlement locations. The Uinta Mountains of Utah, with a steep present-day precipitation gradient from the lowlands to the alpine zone of 20-100 cm per year, has a rich glacial history related to natural and anthropogenic climate variability. Here we examine how past climate variability has impacted glaciers and ultimately the availability of water over long timescales, and how these changes affected human settlement and subsistence decisions. Through a combination of geomorphologic evidence, paleoclimate proxies, and glacier and climate modelling, we test the hypothesis that glacier-charged hydrologic systems buffer prehistoric populations during extreme drought periods, facilitating long-term landscape management with fire. Initial field surveys suggest middle- and low-elevation glacial valleys contain glacially-derived sediment from meltwater and resulted in terraced river channels and outwash plains visible today. These terraces provide estimates of river discharge during varying stages of glacier advance and retreat. Archaeological evidence from middle- and high-elevations in the Uinta Mountains suggests human populations persisted through periods of dramatic climate change, possibly linked to the persistence of glacially-derived water resources through drought periods. Paleoenvironmental records indicate a long history of fire driven by the combined interaction of climatic variation and human disturbance. This research highlights the important role of moisture variability determining human settlement patterns and landscape management throughout time, and has direct relevance to the impacts of anthropogenic precipitation and glacier changes on vulnerable populations in the coming century

  10. Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement

  11. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Waste Package Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison-Giesler, D.J.; Jardine, L.J.

    1991-02-01

    The goal of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) waste package program is to develop, confirm the effectiveness of, and document a design for a waste package and associated engineered barrier system (EBS) for spent nuclear fuel and solidified high-level nuclear waste (HLW) that meets the applicable regulatory requirements for a geologic repository. The Waste Package Plan describes the waste package program and establishes the technical approach against which overall progress can be measured. It provides guidance for execution and describes the essential elements of the program, including the objectives, technical plan, and management approach. The plan covers the time period up to the submission of a repository license application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). 1 fig

  12. Adapting to Climate Change through Improved Watershed ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... the Atlas Mountains, flowing into the Haouz Plain, and onward to the Atlantic Ocean. ... Other problems, such as ecosystem degradation and climate change ... The objective is to increase people's capacity to adapt to environmental changes.

  13. Using dissolved gases to observe the evolution of groundwater age in a mountain watershed over a period of thirteen years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Andrew H.

    2011-01-01

    Baseflows in snowmelt-dominated mountain streams are critical for sustaining ecosystems and water resources during periods of greatest demand. Future climate predictions for mountainous areas throughout much of the western U.S. include increasing temperatures, declining snowpacks, and earlier snowmelt periods. The degree to and rate at which these changes will affect baseflows in mountain streams remains unknown, largely because baseflows are groundwater-fed and the relationship between climate and groundwater recharge/discharge rates in mountain watersheds is uncertain. We use groundwater age determinations from multiple dissolved gas tracers (CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) to track changes in groundwater age over a period of thirteen years in the Sagehen Creek watershed, Sierra Nevada Mountains, CA. Data were collected from springs and wells in 2009 and 2010 and combined with those obtained in prior studies from 1997 to 2003. Apparent ages range from 0 to >60 years. Comparison between variations in age and variations in snow water equivalent (SWE) and mean annual air temperature reveals the degree of correlation between these climate variables and recharge rate. Further, comparison of apparent ages from individual springs obtained at different times and using different tracers helps constrain the age distribution in the sampled waters. The age data are generally more consistent with an exponential age distribution than with piston-flow. However, many samples, even those with relatively old mean ages, must have a disproportionately large very young fraction that responds directly to annual SWE variations. These findings have important implications for how future baseflows may respond to decreasing SWE.

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio–Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio–Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604

  15. Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

    2012-01-01

    As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the

  16. Application of snowmelt runoff model (SRM in mountainous watersheds: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalamu Abudu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The snowmelt runoff model (SRM has been widely used in simulation and forecast of streamflow in snow-dominated mountainous basins around the world. This paper presents an overall review of worldwide applications of SRM in mountainous watersheds, particularly in data-sparse watersheds of northwestern China. Issues related to proper selection of input climate variables and parameters, and determination of the snow cover area (SCA using remote sensing data in snowmelt runoff modeling are discussed through extensive review of literature. Preliminary applications of SRM in northwestern China have shown that the model accuracies are relatively acceptable although most of the watersheds lack measured hydro-meteorological data. Future research could explore the feasibility of modeling snowmelt runoff in data-sparse mountainous watersheds in northwestern China by utilizing snow and glacier cover remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS tools, field measurements, and innovative ways of model parameterization.

  17. Climate contributes to zonal forest mortality in Southern California's San Jacinto Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellows, A.; Goulden, M.

    2010-12-01

    An estimated 4.6 million trees died over ~375,000 acres of Southern California forest in 2002-2004. This mortality punctuated a decline in forest health that has been attributed to air pollution, stem densification, or drought. Bark beetles were the proximate cause of most tree death but the underlying cause of this extensive mortality is arguably poor forest health. We investigated the contributions that climate, particularly drought, played in tree mortality and how physiological drought stress may have structured the observed patterns of mortality. Field surveys showed that conifer mortality was zonal in the San Jacinto Mountains of Southern California. The proportion of conifer mortality increased with decreasing elevation (p=0.01). Mid-elevation conifers (White Fir, Incense Cedar, Coulter Pine, Sugar Pine, Ponderosa and Jeffrey Pine) died in the lower portions of their respective ranges, which resulted in an upslope lean in species’ distribution and an upslope shift in species’ mean elevation. Long-term precipitation (P) is consistent with elevation over the conifer elevation range (p=0.43). Potential evapotranspiration (ET) estimated by Penman Monteith declines with elevation by nearly half over the same range. These trends suggest that ET, more than P, is critical in structuring the elevational trend in drought stress and may have contributed to the patterns of mortality that occurred in 2002-04. Physiological measurements in a mild drought year (2009) showed late summer declines in plant water availability with decreasing elevation (p < 0.01) and concomitant reductions in carbon assimilation and stomatal conductance with decreasing elevation. We tie these observations together with a simple water balance model.

  18. Drought and Cooler Temperatures Are Associated with Higher Nest Survival in Mountain Plovers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria J. Dreitz

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus. Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

  19. Micro climate Simulation in new Town `Hashtgerd' using downscaled climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodoudi, S.

    2010-12-01

    One of the objectives of climatological part of project Young Cities ‘Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region’ is to simulate the micro climate (with 1m resolution) in 35ha of new town Hashtgerd, which is located 65 km far from mega city Tehran. The Project aims are developing, implementing and evaluating building and planning schemes and technologies which allow to plan and build sustainable, energy-efficient and climate sensible form mass housing settlements in arid and semi-arid regions (energy-efficient fabric). Climate sensitive form also means designing and planning for climate change and its related effects for Hashtgerd New Town. By configuration of buildings and open spaces according to solar radiation, wind and vegetation, climate sensitive urban form can create outdoor thermal comfort. To simulate the climate on small spatial scales, the micro climate model Envi-met has been used to simulate the micro climate in 35 ha. The Eulerian model ENVI-met is a micro-scale climate model which gives information about the influence of architecture and buildings as well as vegetation and green area on the micro climate up to 1 m resolution. Envi-met has been run with information from topography, downscaled climate data with neuro-fuzzy method, meteorological measurements, building height and different vegetation variants (low and high number of trees) The first results were compared with each other and show In semi-arid climates the protection from solar radiation is of major importance. This can be achieved by implementation of vegetation and geometry of buildings. Due to the geographical location and related sun’s orbit the degree of shading in this area is rather low. Technical construction such awnings have to be implemented. A second important factor is wind. The design follows the idea to block the prevailing winds from west and northwest as well as the hot and dusty winds in summer time from the southeast but at the same time

  20. A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in mountain communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Haisch, Tina; Martius, Olivia; Mayer, Heike; Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe; Keiler, Margreth

    2017-04-01

    Recent extreme natural disasters have focused the attention of the global community to society's vulnerability to these events. Simultaneously these natural disasters occur within a broader social and physical context that is interconnected and may include social upheavals, economic crises, and climate change. While progress has been made to mitigate and adapt to natural hazards, much of the existing research lacks interdisciplinary approaches that equally consider both natural and social processes. More importantly, this lack of integration between approaches remains a major challenge in developing disaster risk management plans for communities. In this study we focus on European Alpine communities that face numerous human and environmental risks and differ regarding their ability to cope with these risks and develop resilience. Herein we present a conceptual model of mountain communities exposed to socio-economic (e.g. economic downturn) and biophysical (e.g. floods) "shocks". We identify system boundaries, structure, components, and processes required to describe both human and landscape systems for mountain communities. More importantly we determine feedbacks within and between both systems. The purpose of the model is to investigate which shocks overcome the buffering capacity of mountain communities, and determine which shocks have a greater effect on mountain communities. Socioeconomic, climate, and hazard 'shock' scenarios have been developed for communities with different geographic sizes. Examples of inputs for the model and methods required to test the model are provided. Guided by the model and scenarios we discuss potential outcomes regarding community resilience.

  1. The influence of regional urbanization and abnormal weather conditions on the processes of human climatic adaptation on mountain resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artamonova, M.; Golitsyn, G.; Senik, I.; Safronov, A.; Babyakin, A.; Efimenko, N.; Povolotskaya, N.; Topuriya, D.; Chalaya, E.

    2012-04-01

    This work is a further development in the study of weather pathogenic index (WPI) and negative influence of urbanization processes on the state of people's health with adaptation disorder. This problem is socially significant. According to the data of the WHO, in the world there are from 20 to 45% of healthy people and from 40 to 80% of people with chronic diseases who suffer from the raised meteosensitivity. As a result of our researches of meteosensitivity of people during their short-duration on mountain resorts there were used negative adaptive reactions (NAR) under 26 routine tests, stress-reactions under L.H. Garkavi's hemogram, vegetative indices, tests of neuro-vascular reactivity, signs of imbalance of vegetative and neurohumoral regulation according to the data of biorhythm fractal analysis and sudden aggravations of diseases (SAD) as an indicator of negative climatic and urbanization influence. In 2010-2011 the Caucasian mountain resorts were having long periods of climatic anomalies, strengthening of anthropogenic emissions and forest fires when record-breaking high waves of NAR and SAD were noticed. There have also been specified indices ranks of weather pathogenicity from results of comparison of health characteristics with indicators of synoptico-dynamic processes according to Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); air ionization N+, N-, N+/N- spectra of aerosol particles (the size from 500 to 20000 nanometers) and concentrations of chemically active gases (O3, NO, NO2, ), volatile phytoorganic substances in the surface atmosphere, bactericidal characteristics of vegetation by criterion χ2 (not above 0,05). It has allowed us to develop new physiological optimum borders, norm and pessimum, to classify emergency ecologo-weather situations, to develop a new techniques of their forecasting and prevention of meteopathic reactions with meteosensitive patients (Method of treatment and the early (emergency) and planned prevention meteopatic reactions

  2. Management and research of desert tortoises for the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautenstrauch, K.R.; Cox, M.K.; Doerr, T.B.; Green, R.A.; Mueller, J.M.; O'Farrell, T.P.; Rakestraw, D.L.

    1991-01-01

    A program has been developed for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) to manage and study the desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizi), a threatened species that occurs at low densities at Yucca Mountain. The goals of this program are to better understand the biology and status of the desert tortoise population at Yucca Mountain, assess impacts on tortoises of site characterization (SC) activities, and minimize those impacts. The first steps we took to develop this program were to compile the available information on tortoise biology at Yucca Mountain, ascertain what information was lacking, and identify the potential impacts on tortoises of SC. We then developed a technical design for identifying and mitigating direct and cumulative impacts and providing information on tortoise biology. Interrelated studies were developed to achieve these objectives. The primary sampling unit for the impact monitoring studies is radiomarked tortoises. Three populations of tortoises will be sampled: individuals isolated from disturbances (control), individuals near major SC activities (direct effects treatment and worst-case cumulative effects treatment), and individuals from throughout Yucca Mountain (cumulative effects treatment). Impacts will be studied by measuring and comparing survival, reproduction, movements, habitat use, health, and diet of these tortoises. A habitat quality model also will be developed and the efficacy of mitigation techniques, such as relocating tortoises, will be evaluated. 29 refs

  3. Warming-induced upward migration of the alpine treeline in the Changbai Mountains, northeast China

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Du, H.; Liu, J.; Li, M.; Büntgen, Ulf; Yang, Y.; Wang, L.; Wu, Z.; He, Hong S.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 3 (2018), s. 1256-1266 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate - change * tibetan plateau * pinus-cembra * elevation * dynamics * shifts * forest * growth * line * carbon * altitudinal transect * Betula ermanii * Changbai Mountains * climate change * dendroecology * forest growth * treeline dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 8.502, year: 2016

  4. The importance of geomorphic and hydrologic factors in shaping the sensitivity of alpine/subalpine lake volumes to shifts in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, J.; Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Befus, K. M.; Williams, D. G.; Kraushaar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine and subalpine lakes are important components of the hydrologic cycle in mountain ecosystems. These lakes are also highly sensitive to small shifts in temperature and precipitation. Mountain lake volumes and their contributions to mountain hydrology may change in response to even minor declines in snowpack or increases in temperature. However, it is still not clear to what degree non-climatic factors, such as geomorphic setting and lake geometry, play in shaping the sensitivity of high elevation lakes to climate change. We investigated the importance of lake geometry and groundwater connectivity to mountain lakes in the Snowy Range, Wyoming using a combination of hydrophysical and hydrochemical methods, including stable water isotopes, to better understand the role these factors play in controlling lake volume. Water isotope values in open lakes were less sensitive to evaporation compared to those in closed basin lakes. Lake geometry played an important role, with wider, shallower lakes being more sensitive to evaporation over time. Groundwater contributions appear to play only a minor role in buffering volumetric changes to lakes over the growing season. These results confirm that mountain lakes are sensitive to climate factors, but also highlight a significant amount of variability in that sensitivity. This research has implications for water resource managers concerned with downstream water quantity and quality from mountain ecosystems, biologists interested in maintaining aquatic biodiversity, and paleoclimatologists interested in using lake sedimentary information to infer past climate regimes.

  5. Piping dynamics in mid-altitude mountains under a temperate climate: the Bieszczady Mts., the Eastern Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatek-Jakiel, Anita; Jakiel, Michał; Krzemień, Kazimierz

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is caused not only by overland flow, but also by subsurface flow. Piping which is a process of mechanical removal of soil particles by concentrated subsurface flow is frequently being overlooked and not accounted for in soil erosion studies. However, it seems that it is far more widespread than it has often been supposed. Furthermore, our knowledge about piping dynamics and its quantification currently relies on a limited number of data available for mainly loess-mantled areas and marl badlands. Therefore, this research aims to recognize piping dynamics in mid-altitude mountains under a temperate climate, where piping occurs in Cambisols, not previously considered as piping-prone soils. The survey was carried out in the Bereźnica Wyżna catchment (305 ha), in the Bieszczady Mts. (the Eastern Carpathians, Poland), where 188 collapsed pipes were mapped. The research was based on the monitoring of selected piping systems located within grasslands (1971-1974, 2013-2016). The development of piping systems is mainly induced by the elongation of pipes and creation of new collapses (closed depressions and sinkholes), rather than by the enlargement of existing piping forms, or the deepening of pipes. It draws attention to the role of dense vegetation (grasslands) in the delay of pipe collapses and, also, to the boundary of pipe development (soil-bedrock interface). The obtained results reveal an episodic, and even stochastic nature of piping activity, expressed by varied one-year and short-term (3 years) erosion rates, and pipe elongation. Changes in soil loss vary significantly between different years (up to 27.36 t ha-1 y-1), reaching the rate of 1.34 t ha-1 y-1 for the 45-year study period. The elongation of pipes also differs, from no changes to 36 m during one year. The results indicate that soil loss due to piping can cause high soil loss even in highly vegetated lands (grasslands), which are generally considered as areas without a significant erosion

  6. Checking technical measurements on climatic data during sand blasting and spraying work in the condensation chamber of the boiling water reactor Gundremmingen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, D.; Unte, U.

    1986-01-01

    During sand blasting and spraying work in the condensation chambers of boiling water reactors prescribed climatic data must be adhered to. For this purpose temporary air conditioners are used. The technical measurement examination here should provide information as to whether the air conditioners used were to fulfill the parameter curve specifications. (orig.) [de

  7. A climate signal in exhumation patterns revealed by porphyry copper deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanites, Brian J.; Kesler, Stephen E.

    2015-06-01

    The processes that build and shape mountain landscapes expose important mineral resources. Mountain landscapes are widely thought to result from the interaction between tectonic uplift and exhumation by erosion. Both climate and tectonics affect rates of exhumation, but estimates of their relative importance vary. Porphyry copper deposits are emplaced at a depth of about 2 km in convergent tectonic settings; their exposure at the surface therefore can be used to track landscape exhumation. Here we analyse the distribution, ages and spatial density of exposed Cenozoic porphyry copper deposits using a global data set to quantify exhumation. We find that the deposits exhibit young ages and are sparsely distributed--both consistent with rapid exhumation--in regions with high precipitation, and deposits are older and more abundant in dry regions. This suggests that climate is driving erosion and mineral exposure in deposit-bearing mountain landscapes. Our findings show that the emplacement ages of porphyry copper deposits provide a means to estimate long-term exhumation rates in active orogens, and we conclude that climate-driven exhumation influences the age and abundance of exposed porphyry copper deposits around the world.

  8. Tree species migration studies in the White Mountains of New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    William B. Leak; Mariko. Yamasaki

    2012-01-01

    The movement of tree species in either latitude or elevation has attracted increased recent attention due to growing national/international concerns over climate change. However, studies on tree species movements began in the early 1970s in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, mostly due to ecological interests in the episodic behavior of upper-elevation tree species...

  9. A bioclimatic characterization of high elevation habitats in the Alborz mountains of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noroozi, Jalil; Körner, Christian

    2018-01-01

    The Alborz mountains in N-Iran at 36° N rise from the Caspian Sea to 5671 m a.s.l., with warm-temperate, winter-deciduous forests in the lower montane belt in northern slopes, and vast treeless terrain at higher elevation. A lack of rainfall (ca. 550 mm at high elevations) cannot explain the absence of trees. Hence, it is an open question, which parts of these mountains belong to the alpine belt. Here we use bioclimatic data to estimate the position of the potential climatic treeline, and thus, define bioclimatologically, what is alpine and what is not. We employed the same miniature data loggers and protocol that had been applied in a Europe-wide assessment of alpine climates and a global survey of treeline temperatures. The data suggest a potential treeline position at ca. 3300 m a.s.l., that is ca. 900 m above the upper edge of the current oak forest, or 450 m above its highest outposts. The alpine terrain above the climatic treeline position shows a temperature regime comparable to sites in the European Alps. At the upper limit of angiosperm life, at 4850 m a.s.l., the growing season lasted 63 days with a seasonal mean root zone temperature of 4.5 °C. We conclude that (1) the absence of trees below 2850 m a.s.l. is clearly due to millennia of land use. The absence of trees between 2850 and 3300 m a.s.l. is either due to the absence of suitable tree taxa, or the only potential regional taxon for those elevations, Juniperus excelsa , had been eradicated by land use as well. (2) These continental mountains provide thermal life conditions in the alpine belt similar to other temperate mountains. (3) Topography and snow melt regimes play a significant role for the structure of the alpine vegetation mosaics.

  10. Variability and climate change trend in vegetation phenology of recent decades in the Greater Khingan Mountain area, Northeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Tang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology has been used in studies as an indicator of an ecosystem’s responses to climate change. Satellite remote sensing techniques can capture changes in vegetation greenness, which can be used to estimate vegetation phenology. In this study, a long-term vegetation phenology study of the Greater Khingan Mountain area in Northeastern China was performed by using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index version 3 (NDVI3g dataset from the years 1982–2012. After reconstructing the NDVI time series, the start date of the growing season (SOS, the end date of the growing season (EOS and the length of the growing season (LOS were extracted using a dynamic threshold method. The response of the variation in phenology with climatic factors was also analyzed. The results showed that the phenology in the study area changed significantly in the three decades between 1982 and 2012, including a 12.1-day increase in the entire region’s average LOS, a 3.3-day advance in the SOS and an 8.8-day delay in the EOS. However, differences existed between the steppe, forest and agricultural regions, with the LOSs of the steppe region, forest region and agricultural region increasing by 4.40 days, 10.42 days and 1.71 days, respectively, and a later EOS seemed to more strongly affect the extension of the growing season. Additionally, temperature and precipitation were closely correlated with the phenology variations. This study provides a useful understanding of the recent change in phenology and its variability in this high-latitude study area, and this study also details the responses of several ecosystems to climate change.

  11. Convective boundary layer heights over mountainous terrain - A review of concepts -

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Wekker, Stephan; Kossmann, Meinolf

    2015-12-01

    Mountainous terrain exerts an important influence on the Earth's atmosphere and affects atmospheric transport and mixing at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The vertical scale of this transport and mixing is determined by the height of the atmospheric boundary layer, which is therefore an important parameter in air pollution studies, weather forecasting, climate modeling, and many other applications. It is recognized that the spatio-temporal structure of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) height is strongly modified and more complex in hilly and mountainous terrain compared to flat terrain. While the CBL over flat terrain is mostly dominated by turbulent convection, advection from multi-scale thermally driven flows plays an important role for the CBL evolution over mountainous terrain. However, detailed observations of the CBL structure and understanding of the underlying processes are still limited. Characteristics of CBL heights in mountainous terrain are reviewed for dry, convective conditions. CBLs in valleys and basins, where hazardous accumulation of pollutants is of particular concern, are relatively well-understood compared to CBLs over slopes, ridges, or mountain peaks. Interests in the initiation of shallow and deep convection, and of budgets and long-range transport of air pollutants and trace gases, have triggered some recent studies on terrain induced exchange processes between the CBL and the overlying atmosphere. These studies have helped to gain more insight into CBL structure over complex mountainous terrain, but also show that the universal definition of CBL height over mountains remains an unresolved issue. The review summarizes the progress that has been made in documenting and understanding spatio-temporal behavior of CBL heights in mountainous terrain and concludes with a discussion of open research questions and opportunities for future research.

  12. European mountain biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagy, Jennifer

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper, originally prepared as a discussion document for the ESF Exploratory Workshop «Trends in European Mountain Biodiversity - Research Planning Workshop», provides an overview of current mountain biodiversity research in Europe. It discusses (a biogeographical trends, (b the general properties of biodiversity, (c environmental factors and the regulation of biodiversity with respect to ecosystem function, (d the results of research on mountain freshwater ecosystems, and (e climate change and air pollution dominated environmental interactions.- The section on biogeographical trends highlights the importance of altitude and latitude on biodiversity. The implications of the existence of different scales over the different levels of biodiversity and across organism groups are emphasised as an inherent complex property of biodiversity. The discussion on ecosystem function and the regulation of biodiversity covers the role of environmental factors, productivity, perturbation, species migration and dispersal, and species interactions in the maintenance of biodiversity. Regional and long-term temporal patterns are also discussed. A section on the relatively overlooked topic of mountain freshwater ecosystems is presented before the final topic on the implications of recent climate change and air pollution for mountain biodiversity.

    [fr] Ce document a été préparé à l'origine comme une base de discussion pour «ESF Exploratory Workshop» intitulé «Trends in European Mountain Biodiversity - Research Planning Workshop»; il apporte une vue d'ensemble sur les recherches actuelles portant sur la biodiversité des montagnes en Europe. On y discute les (a traits biogéographiques, (b les caractéristiques générales- de la biodiversité, (c les facteurs environnementaux et la régulation de la biodiversité par rapport à la fonction des écosystèmes, (d les résultats des études sur les écosystèmes aquatiques des montagnes et (e les

  13. A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

    2014-05-01

    The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale

  14. Improving Land Surface Temperature Retrievals over Mountainous Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgílio A. Bento

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Algorithms for Land Surface Temperature (LST retrieval from infrared measurements are usually sensitive to the amount of water vapor present in the atmosphere. The Satellite Application Facilities on Climate Monitoring and Land Surface Analysis (CM SAF and LSA SAF are currently compiling a 25 year LST Climate data record (CDR, which uses water vapor information from ERA-Int reanalysis. However, its relatively coarse spatial resolution may lead to systematic errors in the humidity profiles with implications in LST, particularly over mountainous areas. The present study compares LST estimated with three different retrieval algorithms: a radiative transfer-based physical mono-window (PMW, a statistical mono-window (SMW, and a generalized split-windows (GSW. The algorithms were tested over the Alpine region using ERA-Int reanalysis data and relied on the finer spatial scale Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (COSMO model data as a reference. Two methods were developed to correct ERA-Int water vapor misestimation: (1 an exponential parametrization of total precipitable water (TPW appropriate for SMW/GSW; and (2 a level reduction method to be used in PMW. When ERA-Int TPW was used, the algorithm missed the right TPW class in 87% of the cases. When the exponential parametrization was used, the missing class rate decreased to 9%, and when the level reduction method was applied, the LST corrections went up to 1.7 K over the study region. Overall, the correction for pixel orography in TPW leads to corrections in LST estimations, which are relevant to ensure that long-term LST records meet climate requirements, particularly over mountainous regions.

  15. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  16. Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Hauer, F. Richard; Pederson, Gregory T.; Luikart, Gordon; Peterson, Douglas P.; Downs, Christopher C.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—themeltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic toWaterton- Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (∼500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.

  17. AL:PE - Acidification of Mountain Lakes: Palaeolimnology and Ecology. Part 2 - Remote Mountain Lakes as Indicators of Air Pollution and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wathne, Bente M; Patrick, Simon; Cameron, Nigel [eds.

    1997-07-01

    AL:PE is a multi-disciplinary and multi-national project coordinated by research groups in London and Oslo. It is funded by the European Commission, The project is described in this report. The project is the first comprehensive study of remote mountain lakes on a European scale. It is concerned with ecosystems in the arctic and alpine regions of Europe that are threatened by acid deposition, toxic air pollutants and climatic change despite their remoteness. The studies are important not only for ecosystems of the lakes, for which they were designed, but for the arctic and alpine regions in general, since the lakes with their sediment records act as environmental sensors. The AL:PE results illustrate two overarching issues: (1) the importance of these remote and sensitive ecosystems as sensors of long-range transported pollutants and as providers of early warning signals for more widespread environmental change; and (2) the importance and urgency of understanding the present and future impact of pollutants, both singly and in combination, on aquatic ecosystems. Currently, acid deposition is considered the most potent threat. In the context of global warming, however, it is a formidable scientific challenge to disentangle the interactions between the effects of changing deposition patterns of acids, nutrients, trace metals and trace organics. The AL:PE programme has begun to address this challenge and its successor EU project, MOLAR, is designed to tackle the issues more more specifically by focusing on in-depth studies of key sites. 97 refs., 192 figs., 100 tabs.

  18. Technique treatment of early stage support construction system for Gaoling mountain tunnel engineering of Daya Bay nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Keli

    2010-01-01

    This article studies the technical treatment of primary support system used in Gaoling mountain tunnel construction process at Daya by nuclear power plant in combination with the new austrian tunneling construction method, this article first analyzes the design of primary support system, and the key point of the analyses lies in the primary support technical treatment schemes of Gaoling mountain tunnel with the examples of tunnel collapse and primary support design alteration for bias voltage section, then the construction technology of the primary support system is summarized, and the safety of wall rock is analyzed as well with the measurement data. In the end, suggestions are put forward on the design and construction of primary support system for tunnels on the basis of practical working experience. (author)

  19. An arid episod in the climatic evolution of the Atakor mountains (Hoggar) about 1.5 m.y. (K/Ar datations). Its signification in the paleoclimatic context during the Plio-Pleistocene of Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rognon, Pierre; Gourinard, Yves; Bandet, Y.

    1981-01-01

    Nine K/Ar datations of some basaltic lavas from the Atakor mountains allow to date, for the first time, an arid period at 1.5 m.y. +- 0.1. This arid period takes place after the drying of the Plio-Pleistocene tropical lakes and after the first cool Pluvial, during an important turning phase of the geomorphologic and climatic evolution. These environmental changes are similar to those pointed out in Eastern Africa [fr

  20. Working While in Middle School: Student Perceptions of School Climate & Connectedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Sabrena

    2016-01-01

    Does working during the school year result in lowered perceptions of school climate and connectedness for middle school students? According to outcomes from a Rocky Mountain Region School District's (RMRSD) school climate survey, 20% of their middle school student population works during the school year. Existing literature on youth employment…

  1. Denudational slope processes and slope response to global climate changes and other disturbances: insights from the Nepal Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, Monique

    2016-04-01

    Hillslope geomorphology results from a large range of denudational processes mainly controlled by relief, structure, lithology, climate, land-cover and land use. In most areas of the world, the "critical zone" concept is a good integrator of denudation that operates on a long-term scale. However, in large and high mountain areas, short-time scale factors often play a significant role in the denudational pattern, accelerating and/or delaying the transfer of denudation products and fluxes, and creating specific, spatially limited disturbances. We focus on the Nepal Himalayas, where the wide altitudinal range of bio-climatic zones and the intense geodynamic activity create a complex mosaic of landforms, as expressed by the present geomorphology of mountain slopes. On the basis of examples selected in the different Himalayan mountain belts (Siwaliks hills, middle mountains, High Himalaya), we illustrate different types of slopes and disturbances induced by active tectonics, climate extremes, and climate warming trends. Special attention is paid to recent events, such as landslide damming, triggered by either intense rainfalls (Kali Gandaki and Sun Kosi valleys) or the last April-May 2015 Gorkha seismic sequence (southern Khumbu). Lastly, references to older, larger events show that despite the highly dynamic environment, landforms caused by large magnitude disturbances may persist in the landscape in the long term.

  2. Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

    2011-01-01

    This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

  3. Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain, Northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Luo; Chu, Guo-qiang; Liu, Jia-qi

    2016-01-01

    The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.

  4. Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain, Northeastern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Wu

    Full Text Available The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.

  5. Wild Apple Growth and Climate Change in Southeast Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina P. Panyushkina

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Wild populations of Malus sieversii [Ldb.] M. Roem are valued genetic and watershed resources in Inner Eurasia. These populations are located in a region that has experienced rapid and on-going climatic change over the past several decades. We assess relationships between climate variables and wild apple radial growth with dendroclimatological techniques to understand the potential of a changing climate to influence apple radial growth. Ring-width chronologies spanning 48 to 129 years were developed from 12 plots in the Trans-Ili Alatau and Jungar Alatau ranges of Tian Shan Mountains, southeastern Kazakhstan. Cluster analysis of the plot-level chronologies suggests different temporal patterns of growth variability over the last century in the two mountain ranges studied. Changes in the periodicity of annual ring-width variability occurred ca. 1970 at both mountain ranges, with decadal-scale variability supplanted by quasi-biennial variation. Seascorr correlation analysis of primary and secondary weather variables identified negative growth associations with spring precipitation and positive associations with cooler fall-winter temperatures, but the relative importance of these relationships varied spatially and temporally, with a shift in the relative importance of spring precipitation ca. 1970 at Trans-Ili Alatau. Altered apple tree radial growth patterns correspond to altered climatology in the Lake Balkhash Basin driven by unprecedented intensified Arctic Oscillations after the late 1970s.

  6. Alpine Plant Monitoring for Global Climate Change; Analysis of the Four California GLORIA Target Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, A.; Westfall, R. D.; Millar, C. I.

    2007-12-01

    The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is an international research project with the goal to assess climate-change impacts on vegetation in alpine environments worldwide. Standardized protocols direct selection of each node in the network, called a Target Region (TR), which consists of a set of four geographically proximal mountain summits at elevations extending from treeline to the nival zone. For each summit, GLORIA specifies a rigorous mapping and sampling design for data collection, with re-measurement intervals of five years. Whereas TRs have been installed in six continents, prior to 2004 none was completed in North America. In cooperation with the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), California Native Plant Society, and the White Mountain Research Station, four TRs have been installed in California: two in the Sierra Nevada and two in the White Mountains. We present comparative results from analyses of baseline data across these four TRs. The number of species occurring in the northern Sierra (Tahoe) TR was 35 (16 not found in other TRs); in the central Sierra (Dunderberg) TR 65 species were found. In the White Mountains, 54 species were found on the granitic/volcanic soils TR and 46 (19 not found in other TRs) on the dolomitic soils TR. In all, we observed 83 species in the Sierra Nevada range TRs and 75 in the White Mountain TRs. Using a mixed model ANOVA of percent cover from summit-area-sections and quadrat data, we found primary differences to be among mountain ranges. Major soil differences (dolomite versus non-dolomite) also contribute to floristic differentiation. Aspect did not seem to contribute significantly to diversity either among or within target regions. Summit floras in each target region comprised groups of two distinct types of species: those with notably broad elevational ranges and those with narrow elevational ranges. The former we propose to be species that

  7. How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

    2010-12-01

    We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales

  8. Is climate change human induced?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    mountainous regions is disturbing regional eco-balance, but increasing vehicular pollution in climate- sensitive areas seems to have ... snow and ice. There are more than 800 glaciers in the. Ganga basin. The Gangotri is the big one. It used to cover more than 250 square kilometers, but now it's breaking up in many places.

  9. Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regina M. Rochefort; Laurie L. Kurth; Tara W. Carolin; Robert R. Mierendorf; Kimberly Frappier; David L. Steenson

    2006-01-01

    This chapter concentrates on subalpine parklands and alpine meadows of southern British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and western Montana. These areas lie on the flanks of several mountain ranges including the Olympics, the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, and the Coast Mountains in British Columbia.

  10. Mountain treelines: A roadmap for research orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, George P.; Resler, Lynn M.; Bader, Maaike Y.; Holtmeier, Fredrich-Karl; Butler, David R.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Daniels, Lori D.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2011-01-01

    For over 100 years, mountain treelines have been the subject of varied research endeavors and remain a strong area of investigation. The purpose of this paper is to examine aspects of the epistemology of mountain treeline research-that is, to investigate how knowledge on treelines has been acquired and the changes in knowledge acquisition over time, through a review of fundamental questions and approaches. The questions treeline researchers have raised and continue to raise have undoubtedly directed the current state of knowledge. A continuing, fundamental emphasis has centered on seeking the general cause of mountain treelines, thus seeking an answer to the question, "What causes treeline?" with a primary emphasis on searching for ecophysiological mechanisms of low-temperature limitation for tree growth and regeneration. However, treeline research today also includes a rich literature that seeks local, landscape-scale causes of treelines and reasons why treelines vary so widely in three-dimensional patterns from one location to the next, and this approach and some of its consequences are elaborated here. In recent years, both lines of research have been motivated greatly by global climate change. Given the current state of knowledge, we propose that future research directions focused on a spatial approach should specifically address cross-scale hypotheses using statistics and simulations designed for nested hierarchies; these analyses will benefit from geographic extension of treeline research.

  11. Mountaineer Commerical Scale Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deanna Gilliland; Matthew Usher

    2011-12-31

    The Final Technical documents all work performed during the award period on the Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture & Storage project. This report presents the findings and conclusions produced as a consequence of this work. As identified in the Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0002673, AEP's objective of the Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture and Storage (MT CCS II) project is to design, build and operate a commercial scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) system capable of treating a nominal 235 MWe slip stream of flue gas from the outlet duct of the Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) system at AEP's Mountaineer Power Plant (Mountaineer Plant), a 1300 MWe coal-fired generating station in New Haven, WV. The CCS system is designed to capture 90% of the CO{sub 2} from the incoming flue gas using the Alstom Chilled Ammonia Process (CAP) and compress, transport, inject and store 1.5 million tonnes per year of the captured CO{sub 2} in deep saline reservoirs. Specific Project Objectives include: (1) Achieve a minimum of 90% carbon capture efficiency during steady-state operations; (2) Demonstrate progress toward capture and storage at less than a 35% increase in cost of electricity (COE); (3) Store CO{sub 2} at a rate of 1.5 million tonnes per year in deep saline reservoirs; and (4) Demonstrate commercial technology readiness of the integrated CO{sub 2} capture and storage system.

  12. Climatic Zonification of the oriental slope of the oriental mountain range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Jimenez, Victor Leonardo

    1994-01-01

    It was carried out the climatic zonification of the slope following the considerations exposed by W. Koeppen who tries to gather the climatic facts and their effects on the other phenomena of the nature. As a result they were six types of climates distributed along the region in study and determined by such factors as the thermal floors, the advection of humid masses coming from the southeast, the orographic accidents and the presence of the area of intertropical confluence

  13. Climate change issues of Nepal: challenges and perspectives for future generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regmi, M.R.; Khanal, H.S.

    2009-01-01

    In Nepal Climate change has implications on reduction of snow pack on the mountains, water supply shortages, increase forest fires, increase in extreme weather, increase demand for irrigation, decreases power generation; wells dry up due to lower water table. Climate change seeks the two actions on the mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to the climate change. This paper also describes the climate change issues of Nepal. In addition it deals with the potential threats of climate change to water Supply, agriculture and food security, temperature increase, run-off patterns, glacial melt and floods. (author)

  14. DOE's Yucca Mountain studies: What are they? Why are they being done?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-12-01

    This booklet is about the disposal of high-level nuclear waste in the United States. It is intended for readers who do not have a technical background. It discusses why scientists and engineers think high-level nuclear waste may be disposed of safely underground. It also describes why Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being studied and provides basic information about those studies

  15. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  16. Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Erin; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Thoma, David P.; Wilmoth, Siri K.; Ray, Andrew; Legg, Kristin; Shovic, Henry

    2016-01-01

    Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen (Cronartium ribicola, causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks (Dendroctonus ponderosae, mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand-level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree-level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006–2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation

  17. Soil organic matter dynamics at the paramo and puna highlands in the Andean mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ángeles Muñoz, M.; Faz, Ángel; Mermut, Ahmet R.; Zornoza, Raúl

    2014-05-01

    Mountains and uplands represent the most diverse and fragile ecosystems in the world, cover about 20% of the terrestrial surface and are distributed across all continents and major ecoregions. The Andean Plateau is the main mountain range of the American continent and one of the largest in the world with more than 7,500 km. The soil organic matter is a corner stone in the fertility management of the Andean agriculture as well as in the erosion control. However, its role is still much unknown in these ecosystems. Moreover, the influence of current global climatic change on soil organic C reservoirs and dynamics is still not clearly understood. The aim of this work was to review the soil C dynamics and the implication of the soil organic matter in the fertility management, erosion control, conservation of biodiversity and global climate change to improve the knowledge on the mountain Andean highlands. Climate, landscape, soil C pools, biomass and management were studied. In general, the Andean climate is affected by three main factors: ocean currents, winds and orography characterized by an abrupt topography. The entire Andean belt is segmented into the Northern, Central and Southern Andes. Northern Andes are called paramo and are characterized by humid climate while Central and Southern Andes dryer zones are called puna. Most of the region is tectonically and volcanically active. Sedimentary rocks predominated in the paramo while sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic ones prevailed in the puna. The most common soils were Andosols, Regosols, Umbrisols and Histosols. The cold and wet climate and the low atmospheric pressure favored organic matter accumulation in the soil. The accumulation of organic matter is further enhanced by the formation of organomineral complexes strongly resistant to the microbial breakdown mainly in the paramo. High organic C contents were observed in the paramo (10%) oppositely to the low contents found in the dryer puna (1%). The C/N ratio

  18. [Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yin Bo; Gao, Chen Hong; Qin, Hao

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.

  19. Impacts of 1.5°C warming on high mountain systems: state of knowledge, challenges and the way forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Allen, Simon; Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Linsbauer, Andreas; Paul, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Recently, both in science and policy, discussions have intensified about whether the 2°C 'guardrail' can really be considered a safety margin, i.e. natural and human systems would be reasonably safe when global warming can be limited to below 2°C with reference to preindustrial levels. Concerns about the 'safety' of the 2°C warming mounted especially with reference to highly vulnerable systems such as small islands, polar regions and high mountains where 2°C may imply crossing thresholds with major irreversible impacts. Several countries and organizations therefore called for a 1.5°C target, and it was one of the remarkable aspects of the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015 that 1.5°C was explicitly included in the Paris Agreement. However, scientifically, little is known about the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C warming in terms of impacts on natural and human systems. This was also corroborated by the final report of the UNFCCC Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) which was based on the outcomes of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and subsequent expert discussions. Here we respond to this gap and challenge of understanding the differences of impacts as related to 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial levels. We concentrate on high mountains and impacts related to changes in the cryosphere because these systems are very sensitive to climatic changes (in particular to the key climate variables temperature and precipitation) and acknowledged as highly vulnerable areas. We start with a systematic literature review and find that the mountain research community has addressed this issue only in a marginal way. We then develop a conceptual but evidence-based model how this challenge could be addressed: We suggest to first study the changes and corresponding impacts seen in high mountain systems since the Little Ice Age focusing on specified periods with 0.5°C global warming (corresponding regional warming, for instance in the Swiss Alps, in these periods was

  20. Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

    OpenAIRE

    Schwilch, Gudrun; Jaquet, Stéphanie; Liniger, Hanspeter; Sudmeier-Rieux, K.; Penna, I.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Kaenzig, R.

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed...

  1. Erigeron mancus (Asteraceae) density as a baseline to detect future climate change in La Sal Mountain habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    James F. Fowler; Barb Smith

    2010-01-01

    The La Sal Daisy, Erigeron mancus Rydb., is endemic to timberline and alpine habitats of the La Sal Mountains in Utah, an insular, laccolithic mountain range on the Colorado Plateau in southeastern Utah. It occurs in alpine herbaceous communities from timberline to the crestline of the La Sals. Our primary goal in this study was to measure basic population biology...

  2. Spatiotemporal distribution and variation of GPP in the Greater Khingan Mountains from 1982 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Fan, W.; Liu, S.; Ren, H.; Xu, X.

    2017-12-01

    GPP (Gross Primary Productivity) is an important index to reflect the productivity of plants because it refers to the organic accumulated by green plants on land through assimilating the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by photosynthesis and a serial of physiological processes in plants. Therefore, GPP plays a significant role in studying the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystem and plants' reaction to global climate change. Remote sensing provides an efficient way to estimate GPP at regional and global scales and its products can be used to monitor the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial ecosystem.As the Greater Khingan Mountains is the only bright coniferous forest of cool temperate zone in China and accounts for about 30% of the forest in China. This region is sensitive to climate change, but its forest coverage presented a significant variation due to fire disasters, excessive deforestation and so on. Here, we aimed at studying the variation pattern of GPP in the Greater Khingan Mountains and further found impact factors for the change in order to improve the understanding of what have and will happen on plants and carbon cycle under climate change.Based on GPP product from the GLASS program, we first studied spatial distribution of plants in the Greater Khingan Mountains from 1982 to 2015. With a linear regression model, seasonal and inter-annual GPP variability were explored on pixel and regional scale. We analyzed some climatic factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation) and terrain in order to find the driven factors for the GPP variations. The Growing Season Length (GSL) was also regarded as a factor and was retrieved from GIMMS 3g NDVI datasets using dynamic threshold method. We found that GPP in study area linearly decreased with the increasing elevation. Both annual accumulated GPP (AAG) and maximum daily GPP (during mid-June to mid-July) gained obvious improvement over the past 34 years under climate warming and drying (Fig.1 and Fig.2). Further

  3. Wind energy resource atlas. Volume 8. The southern Rocky Mountain region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, S.R.; Freeman, D.L.; Hadley, D.L.; Elliott, D.L.; Barchet, W.R.; George, R.L.

    1981-03-01

    The Southern Rocky Mountain atlas assimilates five collections of wind resource data: one for the region and one for each of the four states that compose the Southern Rocky Mountain region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). At the state level, features of the climate, topography and wind resource are discussed in greater detail than is provided in the regional discussion, and the data locations on which the assessment is based are mapped. Variations, over several time scales, in the wind resource at selected stations in each state are shown on graphs of monthly average and interannual wind speed and power, and hourly average wind speed for each season. Other graphs present speed, direction, and duration frequencies of the wind at these locations.

  4. Growth trends and climate responses of Norway spruce along elevational gradients in East-Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ponočná, T.; Spyt, B.; Kaczka, R. J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Treml, V.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 5 (2016), s. 1633-1646 ISSN 0931-1890 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : abies l. karst. * tree-ring chronologies * basal area increment * radial growth * forest growth * altitudinal gradient * sudetes mountains * northern europe * tatra mountains * alps * climate change * mountain forests * picea abies * radial growth * rree rings * trend preservation Subject RIV: GK - Forestry Impact factor: 1.842, year: 2016

  5. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  6. Modeling studies of mountain-scale radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moridis, George J.; Seol, Yongkoo; Wu, Yu-Shu

    2003-01-01

    We investigate radionuclide transport from a high-level nuclear waste repository to be situated in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. Several radioactive solutes (that cover the range of sorption behavior) and colloids of various sizes are studied. The results of the study indicate the importance of the subsurface geology and site hydrology, i.e., the presence of faults (they dominate and control transport), fractures (the main migration pathways), and the relative distribution of zeolitic and vitric tuffs. The effects of the climatic conditions, diffusion, and sorption (for solutes) or infiltration (for colloids) onto the matrix are discussed. The influence of the colloid size on transport is also investigated

  7. Global snowline and mountain topography: a contrasted view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champagnac, Jean-Daniel; Herman, Frédéric; Valla, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    The examination of the relationship between Earth's topography and present and past climate (i.e., long-term elevation of glaciers Equilibrium Line Altitude) reveals that the elevation of mountain ranges may be limited or controlled by glaciations (e.g. Porter, 1989). This is of prime importance, because glacial condition would lead to a limit the mountain development, hence the accumulation of gravitational energy and prevent the development of further glacial conditions as well as setting the erosion in (peri)glacial environments. In this study, we examine the relationships between topography and the global Equilibrium Line Altitude of alpine glaciers around the world (~ long term snowline, i.e. the altitude where the ice mass balance is null). This analysis reinforce a global study previously published (Champagnac et al., 2012), and provide a much finer view of the climate-topography-tectonics relationships. Specifically, two main observations can be drawn: 1) The distance between the (averaged and maximum) topography, and the ELA decreases pole ward the poles, and even become reversed (mean elevation above to ELA) at high latitude. Correlatively, the elevation of very large portion of land at mid-latitude cannot be related to glaciations, simply because it was never glaciated (large distance between topography and long-term mean ELA). The maximum distance between the ELA and the topography is greater close to the equator and decreases poleward. In absence of glacial and periglacial erosion, this trend cannot have its origin in glacial and periglacial processes. Moreover, the ELA elevation shows a significant (1000~1500m) depression in the intertropical zone. This depression of the ELA is not reflected at all in the topography 2) The distribution of relief on Earth, if normalized by the mean elevation of mountain ranges (as a proxy for available space to create relief, see Champagnac et al., 2012 for details) shows a latitudinal band of greater relief between

  8. Report of the Peer Review Panel on the early site suitability evaluation of the Potential Repository Site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Yucca mountain Site Characterization Project Office (YMPO) assigned Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), the Technical and Management Support Services (T&MSS) contractor to the YmPo, the task of conducting an Early Site Suitability Evaluation (ESSE) of the Yucca mountain site as a potential site for a high-level radioactive waste repository. First, the assignment called for the development of a method to evaluate a single site against the DOE General Guidelines for Recommendation of Sites for Nuclear Waste Repositories, 10 CFR Part 960. Then, using this method, an evaluation team, the ESSE Core Team, of senior YMP scientists, engineers, and technical experts, evaluated new information obtained about the site since publication of the final Environmental Assessment (DOE, 1986) to determine if new suitability/unsuitability findings could be recommended. Finally, the Core Team identified further information and analyses needed to make final determinations for each of the guidelines. As part of the task, an independent peer review of the ESSE report has been conducted. Expertise was solicited that covered the entire spectrum of siting guidelines in 10 CFR Part 960 in order to provide a complete, in-depth critical review of the data evaluated and cited in the ESSE report, the methods used to evaluate the data, and the conclusions and recommendations offered by the report. Fourteen nationally recognized technical experts (Table 2) served on the Peer Review Panel. The comments from the Panel and the responses prepared by the ESSE Core Team, documented on formal Comment Response Forms, constitute the body of this document.

  9. Impacts of Spatial Climatic Representation on Hydrological Model Calibration and Prediction Uncertainty: A Mountainous Catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Sparse climatic observations represent a major challenge for hydrological modeling of mountain catchments with implications for decision-making in water resources management. Employing elevation bands in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SWAT2012-SUFI2 model enabled representation of precipitation and temperature variation with altitude in the Daning river catchment (Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China where meteorological inputs are limited in spatial extent and are derived from observations from relatively low lying locations. Inclusion of elevation bands produced better model performance for 1987–1993 with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE increasing by at least 0.11 prior to calibration. During calibration prediction uncertainty was greatly reduced. With similar R-factors from the earlier calibration iterations, a further 11% of observations were included within the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU compared to the model without elevation bands. For behavioral simulations defined in SWAT calibration using a NSE threshold of 0.3, an additional 3.9% of observations were within the 95PPU while the uncertainty reduced by 7.6% in the model with elevation bands. The calibrated model with elevation bands reproduced observed river discharges with the performance in the calibration period changing to “very good” from “poor” without elevation bands. The output uncertainty of calibrated model with elevation bands was satisfactory, having 85% of flow observations included within the 95PPU. These results clearly demonstrate the requirement to account for orographic effects on precipitation and temperature in hydrological models of mountainous catchments.

  10. Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konowalik, Kamil; Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.

  11. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  12. Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Frank W.; Sweet, Lynn C.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Franklin, Janet; McCullough, Ian M.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dingman, John; Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Hannah, Lee; Redmond, Kelly; Moritz, Max A.

    2016-01-01

    Seedling establishment is a critical step that may ultimately govern tree species’ distribution shifts under environmental change. Annual variation in the location of seed rain and microclimates results in transient “windows of opportunity” for tree seedling establishment across the landscape. These establishment windows vary at fine spatiotemporal scales that are not considered in most assessments of climate change impacts on tree species range dynamics and habitat displacement. We integrate field seedling establishment trials conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada and western Tehachapi Mountains of southern California with spatially downscaled grids of modeled water-year climatic water deficit (CWDwy) and mean August maximum daily temperature (Tmax) to map historical and projected future microclimates suitable for establishment windows of opportunity for Quercus douglasii, a dominant tree species of warm, dry foothill woodlands, and Q. kelloggii, a dominant of cooler, more mesic montane woodlands and forests. Based on quasi-binomial regression models, Q. douglasii seedling establishment is significantly associated with modeled CWDwy and to a lesser degree with modeled Tmax. Q. kelloggii seedling establishment is most strongly associated with Tmax and best predicted by a two-factor model including CWDwy and Tmax. Establishment niche models are applied to explore recruitment window dynamics in the western Tehachapi Mountains, where these species are currently widespread canopy dominants. Establishment windows are projected to decrease by 50–95%, shrinking locally to higher elevations and north-facing slopes by the end of this century depending on the species and climate scenario. These decreases in establishment windows suggest the potential for longer-term regional population declines of the species. While many additional processes regulate seedling establishment and growth, this study highlights the need to account for topoclimatic controls and

  13. Glacier Monitoring and Capacity Building: Important Ingredients for Sustainable Mountain Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel U. Nussbaumer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Glacier observation data from major mountain regions of the world are key to improving our understanding of glacier changes: they deliver fundamental baseline information for climatological, hydrological, and hazard assessments. In many mountain ecosystems, as well as in the adjacent lowlands, glaciers play a crucial role in freshwater provision and regulation. This article first presents the state of the art on glacier monitoring and related strategies within the framework of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G. Both in situ measurements of changes in glacier mass, volume, and length as well as remotely sensed data on glacier extents and changes over entire mountain ranges provide clear indications of climate change. Based on experiences from capacity-building activities undertaken in the Tropical Andes and Central Asia over the past years, we also review the state of the art on institutional capacity in these regions and make further recommendations for sustainable mountain development. The examples from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate that a sound understanding of measurement techniques and of the purpose of measurements is necessary for successful glacier monitoring. In addition, establishing durable institutions, capacity-building programs, and related funding is necessary to ensure that glacier monitoring is sustainable and maintained in the long term. Therefore, strengthening regional cooperation, collaborating with local scientists and institutions, and enhancing knowledge sharing and dialogue are envisaged within the GTN-G. Finally, glacier monitoring enhances the resilience of the populations that depend on water resources from glacierized mountains or that are affected by hazards related to glacier changes. We therefore suggest that glacier monitoring be included in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in regions with glaciated mountains.

  14. Ice core records of climate variability on the Third Pole with emphasis on the Guliya ice cap, western Kunlun Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Lonnie G.; Yao, Tandong; Davis, Mary E.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Wu, Guangjian; Porter, Stacy E.; Xu, Baiqing; Lin, Ping-Nan; Wang, Ninglian; Beaudon, Emilie; Duan, Keqin; Sierra-Hernández, M. Roxana; Kenny, Donald V.

    2018-05-01

    Records of recent climate from ice cores drilled in 2015 on the Guliya ice cap in the western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, which with the Himalaya comprises the Third Pole (TP), demonstrate that this region has become warmer and moister since at least the middle of the 19th century. Decadal-scale linkages are suggested between ice core temperature and snowfall proxies, North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric processes, Arctic temperatures, and Indian summer monsoon intensity. Correlations between annual-scale oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) and tropical western Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures are also demonstrated. Comparisons of climate records during the last millennium from ice cores acquired throughout the TP illustrate centennial-scale differences between monsoon and westerlies dominated regions. Among these records, Guliya shows the highest rate of warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, but δ18O data over the last millennium from TP ice cores support findings that elevation-dependent warming is most pronounced in the Himalaya. This, along with the decreasing precipitation rates in the Himalaya region, is having detrimental effects on the cryosphere. Although satellite monitoring of glaciers on the TP indicates changes in surface area, only a few have been directly monitored for mass balance and ablation from the surface. This type of ground-based study is essential to obtain a better understanding of the rate of ice shrinkage on the TP.

  15. FLORA LICHEN WESTERN MOUNTAINS VRANJE PLACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Bogdanović

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Lichen is a symbiotic plant built by the cells of algae and fungi hyphae. Algae are usually presented - green (Chlorophyta or blue green (Cyanophyta, a mushroom commonly found is ascomycetae and sometimes basidiomycetae. Mushrooms receive oxygen and carbohydrates from algae, and they in turn provide water, CO2 and mineral salts. Lichens are often found on trees and rocks in unpolluted environments and can be used as a bioindicator species. In during 2015-2016. was realized a survey of epiphytic lichen flora of the western mountains in environment of Vranje. Sampling was carried out at 4 locations: Borino brdo, Krstilovica, Markovo Kale and Pljačkovica. Based on the collected and determined samples can be concluded that the study implemented of the area of 25 species of lichens of which: 8 as crust, leafy 12 and 5 shrub. The research results indicate that the lichen flora of the western mountains environments Vranje of a rich and diverse as a result of favorable geographic position, geological and soil composition, climate and plant cover that provide opportunities for the development and survival of lichens.

  16. Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giersch, J. Joseph; Hotaling, Scott; Kovach, Ryan; Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects – the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana and the glacier stonefly Zapada glacier – were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (20 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

  17. Snow cover, freeze-thaw, and the retention of nutrients in an oceanic mountain ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wipf, Sonja; Sommerkorn, Martin; Stutter, Marc I.; Wubs, E. R. Jasper; van der Wal, René

    2015-01-01

    As the climate warms, winters with less snow and therefore more soil freeze-thaw cycles are likely to become more frequent in oceanic mountain areas. It is a concern that this might impair the soil's ability to store carbon and nutrients, and lead to increased leaching losses of dissolved C and

  18. A multi-tracer approach coupled to numerical models to improve understanding of mountain block processes in a high elevation, semi-humid catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, R.; McIntosh, J. C.; Meixner, T.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Chorover, J.

    2016-12-01

    Mountain systems are critical sources of recharge to adjacent alluvial basins in dryland regions. Yet, mountain systems face poorly defined threats due to climate change in terms of reduced snowpack, precipitation changes, and increased temperatures. Fundamentally, the climate risks to mountain systems are uncertain due to our limited understanding of natural recharge processes. Our goal is to combine measurements and models to provide improved spatial and temporal descriptions of groundwater flow paths and transit times in a headwater catchment located in a sub-humid region. This information is important to quantifying groundwater age and, thereby, to providing more accurate assessments of the vulnerability of these systems to climate change. We are using: (a) combination of geochemical composition, along with 2H/18O and 3H isotopes to improve an existing conceptual model for mountain block recharge (MBR) for the Marshall Gulch Catchment (MGC) located within the Santa Catalina Mountains. The current model only focuses on shallow flow paths through the upper unconfined aquifer with no representation of the catchment's fractured-bedrock aquifer. Groundwater flow, solute transport, and groundwater age will be modeled throughout MGC using COMSOL Multiphysics® software. Competing models in terms of spatial distribution of required hydrologic parameters, e.g. hydraulic conductivity and porosity, will be proposed and these models will be used to design discriminatory data collection efforts based on multi-tracer methods. Initial end-member mixing results indicate that baseflow in MGC, if considered the same as the streamflow during the dry periods, is not represented by the chemistry of deep groundwater in the mountain system. In the ternary mixing space, most of the samples plot outside the mixing curve. Therefore, to further constrain the contributions of water from various reservoirs we are collecting stable water isotopes, tritium, and solute chemistry of

  19. Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

    2013-06-01

    · The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. The chemical and biological response of two remote mountain lakes in the Southern Central Alps (Italy to twenty years of changing physical and chemical climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea LAMI

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Two small high mountain lakes in the Alps were monitored in 1984-2003 to follow their response to changes in human impact, such as deposition of atmospheric pollutants, fish stocking and climate change. The results were compared to occasional samplings performed in the 1940s, and to the remains found in sediment cores. When monitoring started, the most acid-sensitive of them, Lake Paione Superiore, was acidified, with evident effects in its flora and fauna: benthic diatoms assemblage was shifted towards acidophilous species, and zooplankton lost the dominant species, Arctodiaptomus alpinus. Palaeolimnological studies outlined that lake acidification paralleled the increasing input of long-range transported industrial pollutants, traced by spherical carbonaceous particles. On the contrary, the biota of Lake Paione Inferiore appeared to be mainly affected by fish stocking. In the last twenty years, decrease in acid load from the atmosphere led to an improvement in lake water quality, with an increase in both pH and alkalinity. First signs of biological recovery were identified, such as change in diatom flora and appearance of sensitive species among benthic insects. However, climate change and episodic deposition of Saharan dust were important driving factors controlling lake water chemistry. Further monitoring to assess the effects of climate change and of the increasing load of nitrogen and other pollutants is recommended.

  1. Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

  2. Gender and climate change in the Indian Hindu-Kush Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

    2014-11-01

    Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the Western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, seasonal pastoral migration, male out-migration, and localized natural resource extraction. Particularly under conditions of heavy male outmigration, but throughout the region, mountain women play a key role in providing labor and knowledge related to the management of local natural resources, yet often lack authority in related political and economic decision-making processes. This gap has important implications for addressing the impacts of climate change: while warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios throughout the region, mountain women increasingly face new challenges in their roles as household managers that have not adequately been emphasized in larger scale planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These challenges are complex in nature, and are shaped not only by gender issues but also interacting factors such as class, caste, ethnicity, and age (among others). In this paper, we review the main arguments behind the discursive gender/climate change nexus, discuss the implications for gendered vulnerabilities and transformation of adaptive capacities in the region, and suggest ways that researchers and policymakers seeking to promote "climate justice" can benefit from the incorporation of gender-based perspectives and frameworks.

  3. GAPHAZ: improving knowledge management of glacier and permafrost hazards and risks in mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Burn, Chris; Clague, John J.; Hewitt, Ken; Kääb, Andreas; Krautblatter, Michael; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Reynolds, John; Sokratov, Sergey

    2014-05-01

    High-mountain environments worldwide are undergoing changes at an historically unprecedented pace due to the sensitivity of the high-mountain cryosphere to climate change. Humans have settled in many mountain regions hundreds, even thousands of years ago, but recent intensive socio-economic developments have increased exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructure to a large range of natural hazards related to high-mountain processes. Resulting risks are therefore increasing and highly dynamic. GAPHAZ, the Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and International Permafrost Association (IPA), is positioned in this context. The objectives of GAPHAZ are to: • improve the international scientific communication on glacier and permafrost hazards; • stimulating and strengthen research collaborations in the field of glacier and permafrost hazards; • compile a state of knowledge related to glacier and permafrost hazards in high mountains; • work towards a greater transfer of information and improved communication between the scientific and governmental/policy communities; • signpost sources of advice to international and national agencies, responsible authorities, and private companies; and • act as a focal point for information for international media during relevant crises. GAPHAZ has initiated a variety of activities over the past years to meet these objectives. One of the important issues is the development of standards of (1) how to make and portray technical assessments of glacier and permafrost related hazards and risks; and (2) how to communicate these to the public and a range of actors including those who implement measures. Thereby, difficulties of and need for better translation between techno-scientific understanding, and the situations and concerns of people most at risk in cold regions need to be recognized. Knowledge-transfer from the few well

  4. Career and Technical Education Administration: Requirements, Certification/Licensure, and Preparation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zirkle, Christopher J.; Jeffery, Jeremy O.

    2017-01-01

    The current climate of career and technical administration requirements in all 50 states was detailed and explored. An increasing number of states are not requiring specific career-technical administration certification/licensure in order to oversee secondary career and technical education (CTE) programs, with more states moving towards a general…

  5. Yucca Mountain program summary of research and technical review activities, July 1988--June 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The Desert Research Institute (DRI), through its Water Resources Center (WRC), since 1984 has supported the State of Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office's activities related to the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain on the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This effort is directed at providing the State Office with an unbiased evaluation of the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) investigations performed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The overall objective is to determine independently whether or not the site meets the performance criteria defined by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and amendments for isolating and containing the wastes during emplacement and the proposed life of the repository. A particularly important area of concern with the proposed repository is the site's hydrology. The faculty of the DRI have long been involved with research throughout the State and have particular expertise in groundwater studies related to radionuclide migration and hydrologic safety of underground nuclear testing by DOE and predecessor agencies. In addition, we utilize laboratory personnel for chemical and isotopic analyses in both of the DRI-WMC water chemistry laboratories

  6. Climate Change Altered Disturbance Regimes in High Elevation Pine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J. A.

    2004-12-01

    Insects in aggregate are the greatest cause of forest disturbance. Outbreaks of both native and exotic insects can be spectacular events in both their intensity and spatial extent. In the case of native species, forest ecosystems have co-evolved (or at least co-adapted) in ways that incorporate these disturbances into the normal cycle of forest maturation and renewal. The time frame of response to changing climate, however, is much shorter for insects (typically one year) than for their host forests (decades or longer). As a result, outbreaks of forest insects, particularly bark beetles, are occurring at unprecedented levels throughout western North America, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and potentially entire ecosystems. In this talk, I will describe one such ecosystem, the whitebark pine association at high elevations in the north-central Rocky Mountains of the United States. White bark pines are keystone species, which in consort with Clark's nutcracker, build entire ecosystems at high elevations. These ecosystems provide valuable ecological services, including the distribution and abundance of water resources. I will briefly describe the keystone nature of whitebark pine and the historic role of mountain pine beetle disturbance in these ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle is the most important outbreak insect in forests of the western United States. Although capable of spectacular outbreak events, in historic climate regimes, outbreak populations were largely restricted to lower elevation pines; for example, lodgepole and ponderosa pines. The recent series of unusually warm years, however, has allowed this insect to expand its range into high elevation, whitebark pine ecosystems with devastating consequences. The aspects of mountain pine beetle thermal ecology that has allowed it to capitalize so effectively on a warming climate will be discussed. A model that incorporates critical thermal attributes of the mountain pine beetle's life cycle was

  7. Yucca Mountain, Nevada - A Proposed Geologic Repository for High-Level Radioactive Waste (Volume 1) Introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.A. Levich; J.S. Stuckless

    2006-01-01

    Yucca Mountain in Nevada represents the proposed solution to what has been a lengthy national effort to dispose of high-level radioactive waste, waste which must be isolated from the biosphere for tens of thousands of years. This chapter reviews the background of that national effort and includes some discussion of international work in order to provide a more complete framework for the problem of waste disposal. Other chapters provide the regional geologic setting, the geology of the Yucca Mountain site, the tectonics, and climate (past, present, and future). These last two chapters are integral to prediction of long-term waste isolation

  8. Yucca Mountain, Nevada - A Proposed Geologic Repository for High-Level Radioactive Waste (Volume 1) Introduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.A. Levich; J.S. Stuckless

    2006-09-25

    Yucca Mountain in Nevada represents the proposed solution to what has been a lengthy national effort to dispose of high-level radioactive waste, waste which must be isolated from the biosphere for tens of thousands of years. This chapter reviews the background of that national effort and includes some discussion of international work in order to provide a more complete framework for the problem of waste disposal. Other chapters provide the regional geologic setting, the geology of the Yucca Mountain site, the tectonics, and climate (past, present, and future). These last two chapters are integral to prediction of long-term waste isolation.

  9. Advances in global mountain geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaymaker, Olav; Embleton-Hamann, Christine

    2018-05-01

    Three themes in global mountain geomorphology have been defined and reinforced over the past decade: (a) new ways of measuring, sensing, and analyzing mountain morphology; (b) a new emphasis on disconnectivity in mountain geomorphology; and (c) the emergence of concerns about the increasing influence of anthropogenic disturbance of the mountain geomorphic environment, especially in intertropical mountains where population densities are higher than in any other mountain region. Anthropogenically induced hydroclimate change increases geomorphic hazards and risks but also provides new opportunities for mountain landscape enhancement. Each theme is considered with respect to the distinctiveness of mountain geomorphology and in relation to important advances in research over the past decade. The traditional reliance on the high energy condition to define mountain geomorphology seems less important than the presence of unique mountain landforms and landscapes and the distinctive ways in which human activity and anthropogenically induced hydroclimate change are transforming mountain landscapes.

  10. Topographical effects of climate dataset and their impacts on the estimation of regional net primary productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, L. Qing; Feng, Feng X.

    2014-11-01

    In this study, we first built and compared two different climate datasets for Wuling mountainous area in 2010, one of which considered topographical effects during the ANUSPLIN interpolation was referred as terrain-based climate dataset, while the other one did not was called ordinary climate dataset. Then, we quantified the topographical effects of climatic inputs on NPP estimation by inputting two different climate datasets to the same ecosystem model, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), to evaluate the importance of considering relief when estimating NPP. Finally, we found the primary contributing variables to the topographical effects through a series of experiments given an overall accuracy of the model output for NPP. The results showed that: (1) The terrain-based climate dataset presented more reliable topographic information and had closer agreements with the station dataset than the ordinary climate dataset at successive time series of 365 days in terms of the daily mean values. (2) On average, ordinary climate dataset underestimated NPP by 12.5% compared with terrain-based climate dataset over the whole study area. (3) The primary climate variables contributing to the topographical effects of climatic inputs for Wuling mountainous area were temperatures, which suggest that it is necessary to correct temperature differences for estimating NPP accurately in such a complex terrain.

  11. Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

    2017-12-01

    The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of

  12. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

  13. The role of on-farm trees as an adaptation strategy to climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was conducted to investigate the role of on-farm tree as a long-term and sustainable adaptation strategy to climatic stresses in eight villages around Mkingu Nature Forest Reserve (MkNFR) in the. Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. Specifically, the effects of climate change to peoples' livelihoods and the role of ...

  14. Experimental Forests and climate change: views of long-term employees on ecological change and the role of Experimental Forests and Ranges in understanding and adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...

  15. Potential impact of wind energy development of mountain flora and fauna in Rhone-Alpes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ladet, Alain; Bauvet, Corinne

    2005-03-01

    After a presentation of Rhone-Alpes mountain areas (massifs, constraints related to mountain climate, vegetation levels), this report proposes an overview of elements to be taken into account for the development of wind energy. It lists the different concerned public actors, reports a bibliographical study, indicates names and locations of sensitive species (fauna and flora) and natural environments. A synthesis indicates potential impacts, and outlines the patrimonial value, and then proposes an approach for the diagnosis and for the impact study. Appendices notably contain sheets which present the different concerned vegetal or animal species, and their important characteristics in terms of habitat and life

  16. Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg. in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the USA: Understanding Complex Systems Mechanisms through Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung Ah Koo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Alpine, subalpine and boreal tree species, of low genetic diversity and adapted to low optimal temperatures, are vulnerable to the warming effects of global climate change. The accurate prediction of these species’ distributions in response to climate change is critical for effective planning and management. The goal of this research is to predict climate change effects on the distribution of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg. in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP, eastern USA. Climate change is, however, conflated with other environmental factors, making its assessment a complex systems problem in which indirect effects are significant in causality. Predictions were made by linking a tree growth simulation model, red spruce growth model (ARIM.SIM, to a GIS spatial model, red spruce habitat model (ARIM.HAB. ARIM.SIM quantifies direct and indirect interactions between red spruce and its growth factors, revealing the latter to be dominant. ARIM.HAB spatially distributes the ARIM.SIM simulations under the assumption that greater growth reflects higher probabilities of presence. ARIM.HAB predicts the future habitat suitability of red spruce based on growth predictions of ARIM.SIM under climate change and three air pollution scenarios: 10% increase, no change and 10% decrease. Results show that suitable habitats shrink most when air pollution increases. Higher temperatures cause losses of most low-elevation habitats. Increased precipitation and air pollution produce acid rain, which causes loss of both low- and high-elevation habitats. The general prediction is that climate change will cause contraction of red spruce habitats at both lower and higher elevations in GSMNP, and the effects will be exacerbated by increased air pollution. These predictions provide valuable information for understanding potential impacts of global climate change on the spatiotemporal distribution of red spruce habitats in GSMNP.

  17. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tölle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole P M; Leung, Ruby

    2015-06-01

    Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing 10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

  18. Influence of climate and environment on post-fire recovery of mountain big sagebrush

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachary J. Nelson; Peter J. Weisberg; Stanley G. Kitchen

    2014-01-01

    In arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world, wildfire plays a key role in maintaining species diversity. Dominant plant associations may depend upon particular fire regime characteristics for their persistence. Mountain shrub communities in high-elevation landscapes of the Intermountain West, USA, are strongly influenced by the post-fire recovery dynamics of the...

  19. Engineered barrier system and waste package design concepts for a potential geologic repository at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, D.W.; Ruffner, D.J.; Jardine, L.J.

    1991-10-01

    We are using an iterative process to develop preliminary concept descriptions for the Engineered Barrier System and waste-package components for the potential geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The process allows multiple design concepts to be developed subject to major constraints, requirements, and assumptions. Involved in the highly interactive and interdependent steps of the process are technical specialists in engineering, metallic and nonmetallic materials, chemistry, geomechanics, hydrology, and geochemistry. We have developed preliminary design concepts that satisfy both technical and nontechnical (e.g., programmatic or policy) requirements

  20. Changes in the high-mountain vegetation of the Central Iberian Peninsula as a probable sign of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Elorza, Mario; Dana, Elías D; González, Alberto; Sobrino, Eduardo

    2003-08-01

    Aerial images of the high summits of the Spanish Central Range reveal significant changes in vegetation over the period 1957 to 1991. These changes include the replacement of high-mountain grassland communities dominated by Festuca aragonensis, typical of the Cryoro-Mediterranean belt, by shrub patches of Juniperus communis ssp. alpina and Cytisus oromediterraneus from lower altitudes (Oro-Mediterranean belt). Climatic data indicate a shift towards warmer conditions in this mountainous region since the 1940s, with the shift being particularly marked from 1960. Changes include significantly higher minimum and maximum temperatures, fewer days with snow cover and a redistribution of monthly rainfall. Total yearly precipitation showed no significant variation. There were no marked changes in land use during the time frame considered, although there were minor changes in grazing species in the 19th century. It is hypothesized that the advance of woody species into higher altitudes is probably related to climate change, which could have acted in conjunction with discrete variations in landscape management. The pronounced changes observed in the plant communities of the area reflect the susceptibility of high-mountain Mediterranean species to environmental change.

  1. Implementation of NUREG-1318 guidance within the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Monica, L.B.; Waddell, J.D.; Hardin, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project is implementing a quality assurance program that fulfills the requirements of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Additional guidance for this program was provided in NUREG 1318, ''Technical Position on Items and Activities in the High-Level Waste Geologic Repository Program Subject to Quality Assurance Requirements'' for identification of items and activities important to public radiological safety and waste isolation. The process and organization for implementing this guidance is discussed. 3 refs., 2 figs

  2. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

  3. The reason why the budget for the Yucca mountain project is cut

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ju

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the event that the 2009 and 2010 budgets for the Yucca Mountain Spent Fuel Disposal Project is cut. The political, ethnical, technical, economical and resource recycling reasons for the budget cutting are analyzed. It is proposed that the strong objection of Senator Harry Reid and the political consideration are the main reasons for budget cutting. Many objections on the budget cutting are also introduced. (authors)

  4. Predicted disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain due to changes in rainfall patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Ju Xiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of C. obcordata to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that C. obcordata can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought. CONCLUSIONS: The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of C. obcordata in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the C. obcordata population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.

  5. The use of performance assessments in Yucca Mountain repository waste package design activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardine, L.J.

    1990-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Project is developing performance assessment approaches as part of the evaluations of the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a repository site. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is developing design concepts and the scientific performance assessment methodologies and techniques used for the waste package and engineered barrier system components. This paper presents an overview of the approach under development for postclosure performance assessments that will guide the conceptual design activities and assist in the site suitability evaluations. This approach includes establishing and modeling for the long time periods required by regulations: near-field environment characteristics surrounding the emplaced wastes; container materials performance responses; and waste form properties. All technical work is being done under a fully qualified quality assurance program

  6. Geographic patterns of genetic variation and population structure in Pinus aristata, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anna W. Schoettle; Betsy A. Goodrich; Valerie Hipkins; Christopher Richards; Julie Kray

    2012-01-01

    Pinus aristata Engelm., Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine, has a narrow core geographic and elevational distribution, occurs in disjunct populations, and is threatened by rapid climate change, white pine blister rust, and bark beetles. Knowledge of genetic diversity and population structure will help guide gene conservation strategies for this species. Sixteen sites...

  7. Distributed Energy Generation for Climate Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stout, Sherry; Hotchkiss, Eliza

    2017-05-24

    Distributed generation can play a critical role in supporting climate adaptation goals. This infographic style poster will showcase the role of distributed generation in achieving a wide range of technical and policy goals and social services associated with climate adaptation.

  8. [Climate implications of terrestrial paleoclimate]. Quaternary Sciences Center, Desert Research Institute annual report, fiscal year 1994/1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigand, P.E.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this study is to collect terrestrial climate indicators for paleoclimate synthesis. The paleobiotic and geomorphic records are being examined for the local and regional impact of past climates to assess Yucca Mountain's suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. In particular these data are being used to provide estimates of the timing, duration and extremes of past periods of moister climate for use in hydrological models of local and regional recharge that are being formulated by USGS and other hydrologists for the Yucca Mountain area. The project includes botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components that will be integrated to accomplish this goal. To this end personnel at the Quaternary Sciences Center of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada are conducting the following activities: Analyses of packrat middens; Analysis of pollen samples; and Determination of vegetation climate relationships

  9. Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

    2014-01-01

    The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

  10. The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.; Elvidge-Tuma, A.B.; Hemphill, M.L.; Lundstrom, S.C.; Mahan, S.A.; Marshall, B.D.; Neymark, L.A.; Paces, J.B.; Sharpe, S.E.; Whelan, J.F.; Wigand, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area

  11. Mapping Drought Sensitivity of Ecosystem Functioning in Mountainous Watersheds: Spatial Heterogeneity and Geological-Geomorphological Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, H. M.; Steefel, C. F.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Sarah, T.

    2016-12-01

    Mountainous watersheds in the Upper Colorado River Basin play a critical role in supplying water and nutrients to western North America. Ecosystem functioning in those regions - including plant dynamics and biogeochemical cycling - is known to be limited by water availability. Under the climate change, early snowmelt and increasing temperature are expected to intensify the drought conditions in early growing seasons. Although the impact of early-season drought has been documented in plot-scale experiments, ascertaining its significance in mountainous watersheds is challenging given the highly heterogeneous nature of the systems with complex terrain and diverse plant functional types (PFTs). The objectives of this study are (1) to map the regions where the plant dynamics are relatively more sensitive to drought conditions based on historical satellite and climate data, and (2) to identify the environmental controls (e.g., geomorphology, elevation, geology, snow and PFT) on drought sensitivity. We characterize the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity in four watersheds (a 15 x 15 km domain) near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado, USA. Following previous plot-scale studies, we first define the drought sensitivity based on annual peak NDVI (Landsat 5) and climatic datasets. Non-parametric tree-based machine learning methods are used to identify the significant environmental controls, using high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation map and peak snow-water-equivalent distribution from NASA airborne snow observatory. Results show that the drought sensitivity is negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting increased water limitations in lower elevation (less snow, higher temperature). The drought sensitivity is more spatially variable in shallow-rooted plant types, affected by local hydrological conditions. We also found geomorphological and geological controls, such as high sensitivity in the steep well-drained glacial moraine regions. Our

  12. A tale of two single mountain alpine endemics: Packera franciscana and Erigeron mancus

    Science.gov (United States)

    James F. Fowler; Carolyn H. Sieg; Brian M. Casavant; Addie E. Hite

    2012-01-01

    Both the San Francisco Peaks ragwort, Packera franciscana and the La Sal daisy, Erigeron mancus are endemic to treeline/alpine habitats of the single mountain they inhabit. There is little habitat available for these plant species to migrate upward in a warming climate scenario. For P. franciscana, 2008 estimates indicate over 18,000 ramets in a 4 m band along a...

  13. Combined effects of environmental disturbance and climate warming on insect herbivory in mountain birch in subarctic forests: Results of 26-year monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, M V; Zverev, V; Zvereva, E L

    2017-12-01

    Both pollution and climate affect insect-plant interactions, but the combined effects of these two abiotic drivers of global change on insect herbivory remain almost unexplored. From 1991 to 2016, we monitored the population densities of 25 species or species groups of insects feeding on mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) in 29 sites and recorded leaf damage by insects in 21 sites in subarctic forests around the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, north-western Russia. The leaf-eating insects demonstrated variable, and sometimes opposite, responses to pollution-induced forest disturbance and to climate variations. Consequently, we did not discover any general trend in herbivory along the disturbance gradient. Densities of eight species/species groups correlated with environmental disturbance, but these correlations weakened from 1991 to 2016, presumably due to the fivefold decrease in emissions of sulphur dioxide and heavy metals from the smelter. The densities of externally feeding defoliators decreased from 1991 to 2016 and the densities of leafminers increased, while the leaf roller densities remained unchanged. Consequently, no overall temporal trend in the abundance of birch-feeding insects emerged despite a 2-3°C elevation in spring temperatures. Damage to birch leaves by insects decreased during the observation period in heavily disturbed forests, did not change in moderately disturbed forests and tended to increase in pristine forests. The temporal stability of insect-plant interactions, quantified by the inverse of the coefficient of among-year variations of herbivore population densities and of birch foliar damage, showed a negative correlation with forest disturbance. We conclude that climate differently affects insect herbivory in heavily stressed versus pristine forests, and that herbivorous insects demonstrate diverse responses to environmental disturbance and climate variations. This diversity of responses, in combination with the

  14. A Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability: Case Study of Hunza Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Laghari

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH region. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp and temperature (Tmp and their combination. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. Temperature changes from 1°C to 4°C produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4°C, Prp+10% scenario.

  15. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE OVER TOURISM ACTIVITIES IN THE LAND OF BEIUȘ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAZĂR LAURA ANDREEA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The climate of a region always was a determining factor in choosing where we spend our holidays, weather influence on the health and psychological comfort of people is undeniable. For lands like Beiuş that inhereted it’s name, we can say that the climate has always played an important role. Although local topoclimate, with continental influences crossed by the peaks, imprints frequent thermal inversions and is experienced in a negative way by the locals, it fails to influence tourists, given that their visits last no more than seven days. A prerequisite in shaping the tourist flow, the climate of Beiuş’s land offers many possibilities to practice various forms of tourism. Both in the winter, when the peaks of snowy mountains awaits lovers of winter sports and in summer, when the mountain trails, and areal depression offers unforgettable views, the land of Beiuş is strongly imposed in terms of tourism in the west of Romania and not only.

  16. Relationships between mountain pine and climate in the French Pyrenees (Font-Romeu studied using the radiodensitometrical method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolland, Cristian

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available A radiodensitometrical study was carried out on 46 Pinus uncinata (Ramond in Font-Romeu (French Pyrenees. Correlation functions with monthly climatical data were calculated using separately the ring-widths, the earlywood and the latewood densities. The Mountain Pine shows narrow rings (1.5 mm and a high sensitivity to climate (M.S. = 0.221, but it does not seem to suffer from drought despite the dryness of the climate (788 mm rainfall per year. This species is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation, since temperature governs latewood formation. A hot spring and a mild autumn with maximum temperatures above threshold levels will extend the growing period. A warm autumn also increases the latewood density, whereas cold nights during the previous year's autumn are unfavourable to growth because they may affect the cambium and bud initiations.

    [es] Se ha llevado a cabo un trabajo densitométrico sobre 46 Pinus uncinata (Ramond en Font-Romeu (Cerdaña francesa. Las funciones de correlación con el clima han sido calculadas sucesivamente con el espesor de los anillos de crecimiento, la densidad de la madera temprana y de la madera tardía. Esta especie produce anillos de crecimiento delgados (1.5 mm y presenta una elevada sensibilidad con el clima (S.M. = 0.221 pero no parece afectada por la falta de lluvia aunque el clima es más xérico (788 mm/ año. La madera tardía parece muy sensible a las temperaturas. Una primavera cálida ejerce un efecto favorable y un otoño suave con temperaturas máximas superiores a límites críticos permite continuar su desarollo. De la misma manera un otoño caliente aumenta la densidad de la madera tardía aunque las noches frías durante el otoño precedente son desfavorables para el crecimiento porque pueden afectar al Inicio de las yemas y del cambium.
    [fr] Une étude radiodensitométrique de46 Pinus uncinata (Ramond a été réalisée à Font-Romeu (Pyrénées Françaises. Les

  17. Staying cool: preadaptation to temperate climates required for colonising tropical alpine-like environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berit Gehrke

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Plant species tend to retain their ancestral ecology, responding to temporal, geographic and climatic changes by tracking suitable habitats rather than adapting to novel conditions. Nevertheless, transitions into different environments or biomes still seem to be common. Especially intriguing are the tropical alpine-like areas found on only the highest mountainous regions surrounded by tropical environments. Tropical mountains are hotspots of biodiversity, often with striking degrees of endemism at higher elevations. On these mountains, steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity within small spaces coincide with astounding species diversity of great conservation value. The analysis presented here shows that the importance of in situ speciation in tropical alpine-like areas has been underestimated. Additionally and contrary to widely held opinion, the impact of dispersal from other regions with alpine-like environments is relatively minor compared to that of immigration from other biomes with a temperate (but not alpine-like climate. This suggests that establishment in tropical alpine-like regions is favoured by preadaptation to a temperate, especially aseasonal, freezing regime such as the cool temperate climate regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, emigration out of an alpine-like environment is generally rare, suggesting that alpine-like environments – at least tropical ones – are species sinks.

  18. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at

  19. The Variations of Land Surface Phenology in Northeast China and Its Responses to Climate Change from 1982 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Northeast China is located at high northern latitudes and is a typical region of relatively high sensitivity to global climate change. Studies of the land surface phenology in Northeast China and its response to climate change are important for understanding global climate change. In this study, the land surface phenology parameters were calculated using the third generation dataset from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g that was collected from 1982 to 2013 were estimated to analyze the variations of the land surface phenology in Northeast China at different scales and to discuss the internal relationships between phenology and climate change. We examined the phonological changes of all ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS did not exhibit a significant trend throughout the study area; however, the end of the growing season (EOS was significantly delayed by 4.1 days or 0.13 days/year (p < 0.05 over the past 32 years. The SOS for the Hulunbuir Plain, Greater Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains was earlier, and the SOS for the Sanjing, Songnen and Liaohe Plains was later. In addition, the EOS of the Greater Khingan Mountains, Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains was later than the EOS of the Liaohe Plain. The spring temperature had the greatest impact on the SOS. Precipitation had an insignificant impact on forest SOS and a relatively large impact on grassland SOS. The EOS was affected by both temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, although temperature had a lag effect on the EOS, no significant lag effect was observed for the SOS.

  20. U.S. spent nuclear fuel management: Political, fiscal, and technical feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singer, Clifford

    2013-01-01

    Successful U.S. spent nuclear fuel management policy must satisfy political, fiscal, and technical constraints. Technical requirements have been thoroughly investigated in the United States and Nordic countries for volcanic tuff, salt, and granite. Fiscal planning requires an inflation-adjusted revenue stream and predictable real interest rate earnings on fund balances. A prompt solution satisfying political constraints requires compromise between the overlapping but distinct goals of seven different sets of interests at the federal level. Absent such compromise, there will be delay until sufficient support for one of three strategies evolves: (1) force the Yucca Mountain repository on Nevada, (2) open a centralized storage facility without coupling to repository licensing, or (3) follow a “consent-based” process for repository licensing. Formulations of each of these strategies to overcome impediments to their success are described. - Highlights: • U.S. spent nuclear fuel policy has been at an impasse. • No compromise on Yucca Mountain is at hand. • Yucca only, new repository, or no repository are options. • Success with each is more likely with sounder financing

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