Uncertainty analysis in Monte Carlo criticality computations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qi Ao
2011-01-01
Highlights: ► Two types of uncertainty methods for k eff Monte Carlo computations are examined. ► Sampling method has the least restrictions on perturbation but computing resources. ► Analytical method is limited to small perturbation on material properties. ► Practicality relies on efficiency, multiparameter applicability and data availability. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis is imperative for nuclear criticality risk assessments when using Monte Carlo neutron transport methods to predict the effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) for fissionable material systems. For the validation of Monte Carlo codes for criticality computations against benchmark experiments, code accuracy and precision are measured by both the computational bias and uncertainty in the bias. The uncertainty in the bias accounts for known or quantified experimental, computational and model uncertainties. For the application of Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis of fissionable material systems, an administrative margin of subcriticality must be imposed to provide additional assurance of subcriticality for any unknown or unquantified uncertainties. Because of a substantial impact of the administrative margin of subcriticality on economics and safety of nuclear fuel cycle operations, recently increasing interests in reducing the administrative margin of subcriticality make the uncertainty analysis in criticality safety computations more risk-significant. This paper provides an overview of two most popular k eff uncertainty analysis methods for Monte Carlo criticality computations: (1) sampling-based methods, and (2) analytical methods. Examples are given to demonstrate their usage in the k eff uncertainty analysis due to uncertainties in both neutronic and non-neutronic parameters of fissionable material systems.
Monte Carlo eigenfunction strategies and uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gast, R.C.; Candelore, N.R.
1974-01-01
Comparisons of convergence rates for several possible eigenfunction source strategies led to the selection of the ''straight'' analog of the analytic power method as the source strategy for Monte Carlo eigenfunction calculations. To insure a fair game strategy, the number of histories per iteration increases with increasing iteration number. The estimate of eigenfunction uncertainty is obtained from a modification of a proposal by D. B. MacMillan and involves only estimates of the usual purely statistical component of uncertainty and a serial correlation coefficient of lag one. 14 references. (U.S.)
Uncertainty Propagation in Monte Carlo Depletion Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shim, Hyung Jin; Kim, Yeong-il; Park, Ho Jin; Joo, Han Gyu; Kim, Chang Hyo
2008-01-01
A new formulation aimed at quantifying uncertainties of Monte Carlo (MC) tallies such as k eff and the microscopic reaction rates of nuclides and nuclide number densities in MC depletion analysis and examining their propagation behaviour as a function of depletion time step (DTS) is presented. It is shown that the variance of a given MC tally used as a measure of its uncertainty in this formulation arises from four sources; the statistical uncertainty of the MC tally, uncertainties of microscopic cross sections and nuclide number densities, and the cross correlations between them and the contribution of the latter three sources can be determined by computing the correlation coefficients between the uncertain variables. It is also shown that the variance of any given nuclide number density at the end of each DTS stems from uncertainties of the nuclide number densities (NND) and microscopic reaction rates (MRR) of nuclides at the beginning of each DTS and they are determined by computing correlation coefficients between these two uncertain variables. To test the viability of the formulation, we conducted MC depletion analysis for two sample depletion problems involving a simplified 7x7 fuel assembly (FA) and a 17x17 PWR FA, determined number densities of uranium and plutonium isotopes and their variances as well as k ∞ and its variance as a function of DTS, and demonstrated the applicability of the new formulation for uncertainty propagation analysis that need be followed in MC depletion computations. (authors)
Improved Monte Carlo Method for PSA Uncertainty Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Jongsoo
2016-01-01
The treatment of uncertainty is an important issue for regulatory decisions. Uncertainties exist from knowledge limitations. A probabilistic approach has exposed some of these limitations and provided a framework to assess their significance and assist in developing a strategy to accommodate them in the regulatory process. The uncertainty analysis (UA) is usually based on the Monte Carlo method. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo UA approach to calculate the mean risk metrics accounting for the SOKC between basic events (including CCFs) using efficient random number generators and to meet Capability Category III of the ASME/ANS PRA standard. Audit calculation is needed in PSA regulatory reviews of uncertainty analysis results submitted for licensing. The proposed Monte Carlo UA approach provides a high degree of confidence in PSA reviews. All PSA needs accounting for the SOKC between event probabilities to meet the ASME/ANS PRA standard
Improved Monte Carlo Method for PSA Uncertainty Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Choi, Jongsoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
The treatment of uncertainty is an important issue for regulatory decisions. Uncertainties exist from knowledge limitations. A probabilistic approach has exposed some of these limitations and provided a framework to assess their significance and assist in developing a strategy to accommodate them in the regulatory process. The uncertainty analysis (UA) is usually based on the Monte Carlo method. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo UA approach to calculate the mean risk metrics accounting for the SOKC between basic events (including CCFs) using efficient random number generators and to meet Capability Category III of the ASME/ANS PRA standard. Audit calculation is needed in PSA regulatory reviews of uncertainty analysis results submitted for licensing. The proposed Monte Carlo UA approach provides a high degree of confidence in PSA reviews. All PSA needs accounting for the SOKC between event probabilities to meet the ASME/ANS PRA standard.
Systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo simulation of lead based ADS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Embid, M.; Fernandez, R.; Garcia-Sanz, J.M.; Gonzalez, E.
1999-01-01
Computer simulations of the neutronic behaviour of ADS systems foreseen for actinide and fission product transmutation are affected by many sources of systematic uncertainties, both from the nuclear data and by the methodology selected when applying the codes. Several actual ADS Monte Carlo simulations are presented, comparing different options both for the data and for the methodology, evaluating the relevance of the different uncertainties. (author)
Monte Carlo parameter studies and uncertainty analyses with MCNP5
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, F. B.; Sweezy, J. E.; Hayes, R.
2004-01-01
A software tool called mcnp p study has been developed to automate the setup, execution, and collection of results from a series of MCNP5 Monte Carlo calculations. This tool provides a convenient means of performing parameter studies, total uncertainty analyses, parallel job execution on clusters, stochastic geometry modeling, and other types of calculations where a series of MCNP5 jobs must be performed with varying problem input specifications. (authors)
Pore-scale uncertainty quantification with multilevel Monte Carlo
Icardi, Matteo; Hoel, Haakon; Long, Quan; Tempone, Raul
2014-01-01
. Since there are no generic ways to parametrize the randomness in the porescale structures, Monte Carlo techniques are the most accessible to compute statistics. We propose a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) technique to reduce the computational cost
Pore-scale uncertainty quantification with multilevel Monte Carlo
Icardi, Matteo
2014-01-06
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of pore-scale transport processes in porous media have recently gained large popularity. However the geometrical details of the pore structures can be known only in a very low number of samples and the detailed flow computations can be carried out only on a limited number of cases. The explicit introduction of randomness in the geometry and in other setup parameters can be crucial for the optimization of pore-scale investigations for random homogenization. Since there are no generic ways to parametrize the randomness in the porescale structures, Monte Carlo techniques are the most accessible to compute statistics. We propose a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) technique to reduce the computational cost of estimating quantities of interest within a prescribed accuracy constraint. Random samples of pore geometries with a hierarchy of geometrical complexities and grid refinements, are synthetically generated and used to propagate the uncertainties in the flow simulations and compute statistics of macro-scale effective parameters.
Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan; Roberge, David
2015-01-01
Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D max . Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of the
Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan [Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada); Roberge, David [Département de radio-oncologie, Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec H2L 4M1 (Canada)
2015-01-15
Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D{sub max}. Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Bidgood, Peter M
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The estimation of balance uncertainty using conventional statistical and error propagation methods has been found to be both approximate and laborious to the point of being untenable. Direct Simulation by Monte Carlo (DSMC) has been shown...
Range uncertainties in proton therapy and the role of Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paganetti, Harald
2012-01-01
The main advantages of proton therapy are the reduced total energy deposited in the patient as compared to photon techniques and the finite range of the proton beam. The latter adds an additional degree of freedom to treatment planning. The range in tissue is associated with considerable uncertainties caused by imaging, patient setup, beam delivery and dose calculation. Reducing the uncertainties would allow a reduction of the treatment volume and thus allow a better utilization of the advantages of protons. This paper summarizes the role of Monte Carlo simulations when aiming at a reduction of range uncertainties in proton therapy. Differences in dose calculation when comparing Monte Carlo with analytical algorithms are analyzed as well as range uncertainties due to material constants and CT conversion. Range uncertainties due to biological effects and the role of Monte Carlo for in vivo range verification are discussed. Furthermore, the current range uncertainty recipes used at several proton therapy facilities are revisited. We conclude that a significant impact of Monte Carlo dose calculation can be expected in complex geometries where local range uncertainties due to multiple Coulomb scattering will reduce the accuracy of analytical algorithms. In these cases Monte Carlo techniques might reduce the range uncertainty by several mm. (topical review)
Comparative and Predictive Multimedia Assessments Using Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analyses
Whelan, G.
2002-05-01
Multiple-pathway frameworks (sometimes referred to as multimedia models) provide a platform for combining medium-specific environmental models and databases, such that they can be utilized in a more holistic assessment of contaminant fate and transport in the environment. These frameworks provide a relatively seamless transfer of information from one model to the next and from databases to models. Within these frameworks, multiple models are linked, resulting in models that consume information from upstream models and produce information to be consumed by downstream models. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) is an example, which allows users to link their models to other models and databases. FRAMES is an icon-driven, site-layout platform that is an open-architecture, object-oriented system that interacts with environmental databases; helps the user construct a Conceptual Site Model that is real-world based; allows the user to choose the most appropriate models to solve simulation requirements; solves the standard risk paradigm of release transport and fate; and exposure/risk assessments to people and ecology; and presents graphical packages for analyzing results. FRAMES is specifically designed allow users to link their own models into a system, which contains models developed by others. This paper will present the use of FRAMES to evaluate potential human health exposures using real site data and realistic assumptions from sources, through the vadose and saturated zones, to exposure and risk assessment at three real-world sites, using the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), which is a multimedia model contained within FRAMES. These real-world examples use predictive and comparative approaches coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis. A predictive analysis is where models are calibrated to monitored site data, prior to the assessment, and a comparative analysis is where models are not calibrated but
Monte Carlo Simulation of Influence of Input Parameters Uncertainty on Output Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sobek, Lukas
2010-01-01
Input parameters of a complex system in the probabilistic simulation are treated by means of probability density function (PDF). The result of the simulation have also probabilistic character. Monte Carlo simulation is widely used to obtain predictions concerning the probability of the risk. The Monte Carlo method was performed to calculate histograms of PDF for release rate given by uncertainty in distribution coefficient of radionuclides 135 Cs and 235 U.
pyNSMC: A Python Module for Null-Space Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis
White, J.; Brakefield, L. K.
2015-12-01
The null-space monte carlo technique is a non-linear uncertainty analyses technique that is well-suited to high-dimensional inverse problems. While the technique is powerful, the existing workflow for completing null-space monte carlo is cumbersome, requiring the use of multiple commandline utilities, several sets of intermediate files and even a text editor. pyNSMC is an open-source python module that automates the workflow of null-space monte carlo uncertainty analyses. The module is fully compatible with the PEST and PEST++ software suites and leverages existing functionality of pyEMU, a python framework for linear-based uncertainty analyses. pyNSMC greatly simplifies the existing workflow for null-space monte carlo by taking advantage of object oriented design facilities in python. The core of pyNSMC is the ensemble class, which draws and stores realized random vectors and also provides functionality for exporting and visualizing results. By relieving users of the tedium associated with file handling and command line utility execution, pyNSMC instead focuses the user on the important steps and assumptions of null-space monte carlo analysis. Furthermore, pyNSMC facilitates learning through flow charts and results visualization, which are available at many points in the algorithm. The ease-of-use of the pyNSMC workflow is compared to the existing workflow for null-space monte carlo for a synthetic groundwater model with hundreds of estimable parameters.
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation
Machguth, H.; Purves, R.S.; Oerlemans, J.; Hoelzle, M.; Paul, F.
2008-01-01
By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was
Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties in fuel cycle calculations using Monte-Carlo technique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martinez, J.S.
2011-01-01
Nowadays, the knowledge of uncertainty propagation in depletion calculations is a critical issue because of the safety and economical performance of fuel cycles. Response magnitudes such as decay heat, radiotoxicity and isotopic inventory and their uncertainties should be known to handle spent fuel in present fuel cycles (e.g. high burnup fuel programme) and furthermore in new fuel cycles designs (e.g. fast breeder reactors and ADS). To deal with this task, there are different error propagation techniques, deterministic (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis) and stochastic (Monte-Carlo technique) to evaluate the error in response magnitudes due to nuclear data uncertainties. In our previous works, cross-section uncertainties were propagated using a Monte-Carlo technique to calculate the uncertainty of response magnitudes such as decay heat and neutron emission. Also, the propagation of decay data, fission yield and cross-section uncertainties was performed, but only isotopic composition was the response magnitude calculated. Following the previous technique, the nuclear data uncertainties are taken into account and propagated to response magnitudes, decay heat and radiotoxicity. These uncertainties are assessed during cooling time. To evaluate this Monte-Carlo technique, two different applications are performed. First, a fission pulse decay heat calculation is carried out to check the Monte-Carlo technique, using decay data and fission yields uncertainties. Then, the results, experimental data and reference calculation (JEFF Report20), are compared. Second, we assess the impact of basic nuclear data (activation cross-section, decay data and fission yields) uncertainties on relevant fuel cycle parameters (decay heat and radiotoxicity) for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) fuel cycle. After identifying which time steps have higher uncertainties, an assessment of which uncertainties have more relevance is performed
Propagation of statistical and nuclear data uncertainties in Monte Carlo burn-up calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Herranz, Nuria; Cabellos, Oscar; Sanz, Javier; Juan, Jesus; Kuijper, Jim C.
2008-01-01
Two methodologies to propagate the uncertainties on the nuclide inventory in combined Monte Carlo-spectrum and burn-up calculations are presented, based on sensitivity/uncertainty and random sampling techniques (uncertainty Monte Carlo method). Both enable the assessment of the impact of uncertainties in the nuclear data as well as uncertainties due to the statistical nature of the Monte Carlo neutron transport calculation. The methodologies are implemented in our MCNP-ACAB system, which combines the neutron transport code MCNP-4C and the inventory code ACAB. A high burn-up benchmark problem is used to test the MCNP-ACAB performance in inventory predictions, with no uncertainties. A good agreement is found with the results of other participants. This benchmark problem is also used to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties and statistical flux errors in high burn-up applications. A detailed calculation is performed to evaluate the effect of cross-section uncertainties in the inventory prediction, taking into account the temporal evolution of the neutron flux level and spectrum. Very large uncertainties are found at the unusually high burn-up of this exercise (800 MWd/kgHM). To compare the impact of the statistical errors in the calculated flux with respect to the cross uncertainties, a simplified problem is considered, taking a constant neutron flux level and spectrum. It is shown that, provided that the flux statistical deviations in the Monte Carlo transport calculation do not exceed a given value, the effect of the flux errors in the calculated isotopic inventory are negligible (even at very high burn-up) compared to the effect of the large cross-section uncertainties available at present in the data files
Propagation of statistical and nuclear data uncertainties in Monte Carlo burn-up calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garcia-Herranz, Nuria [Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, UPM (Spain)], E-mail: nuria@din.upm.es; Cabellos, Oscar [Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, UPM (Spain); Sanz, Javier [Departamento de Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, UNED (Spain); Juan, Jesus [Laboratorio de Estadistica, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, UPM (Spain); Kuijper, Jim C. [NRG - Fuels, Actinides and Isotopes Group, Petten (Netherlands)
2008-04-15
Two methodologies to propagate the uncertainties on the nuclide inventory in combined Monte Carlo-spectrum and burn-up calculations are presented, based on sensitivity/uncertainty and random sampling techniques (uncertainty Monte Carlo method). Both enable the assessment of the impact of uncertainties in the nuclear data as well as uncertainties due to the statistical nature of the Monte Carlo neutron transport calculation. The methodologies are implemented in our MCNP-ACAB system, which combines the neutron transport code MCNP-4C and the inventory code ACAB. A high burn-up benchmark problem is used to test the MCNP-ACAB performance in inventory predictions, with no uncertainties. A good agreement is found with the results of other participants. This benchmark problem is also used to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties and statistical flux errors in high burn-up applications. A detailed calculation is performed to evaluate the effect of cross-section uncertainties in the inventory prediction, taking into account the temporal evolution of the neutron flux level and spectrum. Very large uncertainties are found at the unusually high burn-up of this exercise (800 MWd/kgHM). To compare the impact of the statistical errors in the calculated flux with respect to the cross uncertainties, a simplified problem is considered, taking a constant neutron flux level and spectrum. It is shown that, provided that the flux statistical deviations in the Monte Carlo transport calculation do not exceed a given value, the effect of the flux errors in the calculated isotopic inventory are negligible (even at very high burn-up) compared to the effect of the large cross-section uncertainties available at present in the data files.
Reducing uncertainty of Monte Carlo estimated fatigue damage in offshore wind turbines using FORM
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
H. Horn, Jan-Tore; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
2016-01-01
Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacais, F.L.; Delgado, J.U.; Loayza, V.M.
2016-01-01
In preparing solutions for the production of radionuclide metrology standards is necessary measuring the quantity Activity by mass. The gravimetric method by elimination is applied to perform weighing with smaller uncertainties. At this work is carried out the validation, by the Monte Carlo method, of the uncertainty calculation approach implemented by Lourenco and Bobin according to ISO GUM for the method by elimination. The results obtained by both uncertainty calculation methods were consistent indicating that were fulfilled the conditions for the application of ISO GUM in the preparation of radioactive standards. (author)
Study of Monte Carlo approach to experimental uncertainty propagation with MSTW 2008 PDFs
Watt, G.
2012-01-01
We investigate the Monte Carlo approach to propagation of experimental uncertainties within the context of the established 'MSTW 2008' global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton at next-to-leading order in the strong coupling. We show that the Monte Carlo approach using replicas of the original data gives PDF uncertainties in good agreement with the usual Hessian approach using the standard Delta(chi^2) = 1 criterion, then we explore potential parameterisation bias by increasing the number of free parameters, concluding that any parameterisation bias is likely to be small, with the exception of the valence-quark distributions at low momentum fractions x. We motivate the need for a larger tolerance, Delta(chi^2) > 1, by making fits to restricted data sets and idealised consistent or inconsistent pseudodata. Instead of using data replicas, we alternatively produce PDF sets randomly distributed according to the covariance matrix of fit parameters including appropriate tolerance values,...
Uncertainty Analysis of Power Grid Investment Capacity Based on Monte Carlo
Qin, Junsong; Liu, Bingyi; Niu, Dongxiao
By analyzing the influence factors of the investment capacity of power grid, to depreciation cost, sales price and sales quantity, net profit, financing and GDP of the second industry as the dependent variable to build the investment capacity analysis model. After carrying out Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, get the probability distribution of each influence factor. Finally, obtained the grid investment capacity uncertainty of analysis results by Monte Carlo simulation.
Use of the Monte Carlo uncertainty combination method in nuclear reactor setpoint evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berte, Frank J.
2004-01-01
This paper provides an overview of an alternate method for the performance of instrument uncertainty calculation and instrument setpoint determination, when a setpoint analysis requires application of techniques beyond that provided by the widely used 'Root Sum Squares' approach. The paper will address, when the application of the Monte Carlo (MC) method should be considered, application of the MC method when independent and/or dependent uncertainties are involved, and finally interpretation of results obtained. Both single module as well as instrument string sample applications will be presented. (author)
Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...
A smart Monte Carlo procedure for production costing and uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parker, C.; Stremel, J.
1996-01-01
Electric utilities using chronological production costing models to decide whether to buy or sell power over the next week or next few weeks need to determine potential profits or losses under a number of uncertainties. A large amount of money can be at stake--often $100,000 a day or more--and one party of the sale must always take on the risk. In the case of fixed price ($/MWh) contracts, the seller accepts the risk. In the case of cost plus contracts, the buyer must accept the risk. So, modeling uncertainty and understanding the risk accurately can improve the competitive edge of the user. This paper investigates an efficient procedure for representing risks and costs from capacity outages. Typically, production costing models use an algorithm based on some form of random number generator to select resources as available or on outage. These algorithms allow experiments to be repeated and gains and losses to be observed in a short time. The authors perform several experiments to examine the capability of three unit outage selection methods and measures their results. Specifically, a brute force Monte Carlo procedure, a Monte Carlo procedure with Latin Hypercube sampling, and a Smart Monte Carlo procedure with cost stratification and directed sampling are examined
Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the forest carbon flux model FORUG : a Monte Carlo analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verbeeck, H.; Samson, R.; Lemeur, R. [Ghent Univ., Ghent (Belgium). Laboratory of Plant Ecology; Verdonck, F. [Ghent Univ., Ghent (Belgium). Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Biometrics and Process Control
2006-06-15
The FORUG model is a multi-layer process-based model that simulates carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and water exchange between forest stands and the atmosphere. The main model outputs are net ecosystem exchange (NEE), total ecosystem respiration (TER), gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration. This study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters contributing to NEE uncertainty in the FORUG model. The aim was to determine if it is necessary to estimate the uncertainty of all parameters of a model to determine overall output uncertainty. Data used in the study were the meteorological and flux data of beech trees in Hesse. The Monte Carlo method was used to rank sensitivity and uncertainty parameters in combination with a multiple linear regression. Simulations were run in which parameters were assigned probability distributions and the effect of variance in the parameters on the output distribution was assessed. The uncertainty of the output for NEE was estimated. Based on the arbitrary uncertainty of 10 key parameters, a standard deviation of 0.88 Mg C per year per NEE was found, which was equal to 24 per cent of the mean value of NEE. The sensitivity analysis showed that the overall output uncertainty of the FORUG model could be determined by accounting for only a few key parameters, which were identified as corresponding to critical parameters in the literature. It was concluded that the 10 most important parameters determined more than 90 per cent of the output uncertainty. High ranking parameters included soil respiration; photosynthesis; and crown architecture. It was concluded that the Monte Carlo technique is a useful tool for ranking the uncertainty of parameters of process-based forest flux models. 48 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.
Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty propagation with hierarchical models—a case study in dynamic torque
Klaus, Leonard; Eichstädt, Sascha
2018-04-01
For a dynamic calibration, a torque transducer is described by a mechanical model, and the corresponding model parameters are to be identified from measurement data. A measuring device for the primary calibration of dynamic torque, and a corresponding model-based calibration approach, have recently been developed at PTB. The complete mechanical model of the calibration set-up is very complex, and involves several calibration steps—making a straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo uncertainty evaluation tedious. With this in mind, we here propose to separate the complete model into sub-models, with each sub-model being treated with individual experiments and analysis. The uncertainty evaluation for the overall model then has to combine the information from the sub-models in line with Supplement 2 of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. In this contribution, we demonstrate how to carry this out using the Monte Carlo method. The uncertainty evaluation involves various input quantities of different origin and the solution of a numerical optimisation problem.
Crevillén-García, D.; Power, H.
2017-08-01
In this study, we apply four Monte Carlo simulation methods, namely, Monte Carlo, quasi-Monte Carlo, multilevel Monte Carlo and multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo to the problem of uncertainty quantification in the estimation of the average travel time during the transport of particles through random heterogeneous porous media. We apply the four methodologies to a model problem where the only input parameter, the hydraulic conductivity, is modelled as a log-Gaussian random field by using direct Karhunen-Loéve decompositions. The random terms in such expansions represent the coefficients in the equations. Numerical calculations demonstrating the effectiveness of each of the methods are presented. A comparison of the computational cost incurred by each of the methods for three different tolerances is provided. The accuracy of the approaches is quantified via the mean square error.
Crevillén-García, D; Power, H
2017-08-01
In this study, we apply four Monte Carlo simulation methods, namely, Monte Carlo, quasi-Monte Carlo, multilevel Monte Carlo and multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo to the problem of uncertainty quantification in the estimation of the average travel time during the transport of particles through random heterogeneous porous media. We apply the four methodologies to a model problem where the only input parameter, the hydraulic conductivity, is modelled as a log-Gaussian random field by using direct Karhunen-Loéve decompositions. The random terms in such expansions represent the coefficients in the equations. Numerical calculations demonstrating the effectiveness of each of the methods are presented. A comparison of the computational cost incurred by each of the methods for three different tolerances is provided. The accuracy of the approaches is quantified via the mean square error.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2008-01-01
uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...
Uncertainties in personal dosimetry for external radiation: A Monte Carlo approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Dijk, J. W. E.
2006-01-01
This paper explores the possibilities of numerical methods for uncertainty analysis of personal dosimetry systems. Using a numerical method based on Monte Carlo sampling the probability density function (PDF) of the dose measured using a personal dosemeter can be calculated using type-test measurements. From this PDF the combined standard uncertainty in the measurements with the dosemeter and the confidence interval can be calculated. The method calculates the output PDF directly from the PDFs of the inputs of the system such as the spectral distribution of the radiation and distributions of detector parameters like sensitivity and zero signal. The method can be used not only in its own right but also for validating other methods because it is not limited by restrictions that apply to using the Law of Propagation of Uncertainty and the Central Limit Theorem. The use of the method is demonstrated using the type-test data of the NRG-TLD. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Cancelli Romero
2017-10-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Analytical results are widely used to assess batch-by-batch conformity, pharmaceutical equivalence, as well as in the development of drug products. Despite this, few papers describing the measurement uncertainty estimation associated with these results were found in the literature. Here, we described a simple procedure used for estimating measurement uncertainty associated with the dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets. A fractionate factorial design was used to define a mathematical model that explains the amount of acetaminophen dissolved (% as a function of time of dissolution (from 20 to 40 minutes, volume of dissolution media (from 800 to 1000 mL, pH of dissolution media (from 2.0 to 6.8, and rotation speed (from 40 to 60 rpm. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated measurement uncertainty for dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets (95.2 ± 1.0%, with a 95% confidence level. Rotation speed was the most important source of uncertainty, contributing about 96.2% of overall uncertainty. Finally, it is important to note that the uncertainty calculated in this paper reflects the expected uncertainty to the dissolution test, and does not consider variations in the content of acetaminophen.
Uncertainties in s-process nucleosynthesis in massive stars determined by Monte Carlo variations
Nishimura, N.; Hirschi, R.; Rauscher, T.; St. J. Murphy, A.; Cescutti, G.
2017-08-01
The s-process in massive stars produces the weak component of the s-process (nuclei up to A ˜ 90), in amounts that match solar abundances. For heavier isotopes, such as barium, production through neutron capture is significantly enhanced in very metal-poor stars with fast rotation. However, detailed theoretical predictions for the resulting final s-process abundances have important uncertainties caused both by the underlying uncertainties in the nuclear physics (principally neutron-capture reaction and β-decay rates) as well as by the stellar evolution modelling. In this work, we investigated the impact of nuclear-physics uncertainties relevant to the s-process in massive stars. Using a Monte Carlo based approach, we performed extensive nuclear reaction network calculations that include newly evaluated upper and lower limits for the individual temperature-dependent reaction rates. We found that most of the uncertainty in the final abundances is caused by uncertainties in the neutron-capture rates, while β-decay rate uncertainties affect only a few nuclei near s-process branchings. The s-process in rotating metal-poor stars shows quantitatively different uncertainties and key reactions, although the qualitative characteristics are similar. We confirmed that our results do not significantly change at different metallicities for fast rotating massive stars in the very low metallicity regime. We highlight which of the identified key reactions are realistic candidates for improved measurement by future experiments.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuijper, J.C.; Oppe, J.; Klein Meulekamp, R.; Koning, H. [NRG - Fuels, Actinides and Isotopes group, Petten (Netherlands)
2005-07-01
Some years ago a methodology was developed at NRG for the calculation of 'density-to-density' and 'one-group cross section-to-density' sensitivity matrices and covariance matrices for final nuclide densities for burnup schemes consisting of multiple sets of flux/spectrum and burnup calculations. The applicability of the methodology was then demonstrated by calculations of BR3 MOX pin irradiation experiments employing multi-group cross section uncertainty data from the EAF4 data library. A recent development is the extension of this methodology to enable its application in combination with the OCTOPUS-MCNP-FISPACT/ORIGEN Monte Carlo burnup scheme. This required some extensions to the sensitivity matrix calculation tool CASEMATE. The extended methodology was applied on the 'HTR Plutonium Cell Burnup Benchmark' to calculate the uncertainties (covariances) in the final densities, as far as these uncertainties are caused by uncertainties in cross sections. Up to 600 MWd/kg these uncertainties are larger than the differences between the code systems. However, it should be kept in mind that the calculated uncertainties are based on EAF4 uncertainty data. It is not exactly clear on beforehand what a proper set of associated (MCNP) cross sections and covariances would yield in terms of final uncertainties in calculated densities. This will be investigated, by the same formalism, once these data becomes available. It should be noted that the studies performed up till the present date are mainly concerned with the influence of uncertainties in cross sections. The influence of uncertainties in the decay constants, although included in the formalism, is not considered further. Also the influence of other uncertainties (such as -geometrical- modelling approximations) has been left out of consideration for the time being. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuijper, J.C.; Oppe, J.; Klein Meulekamp, R.; Koning, H.
2005-01-01
Some years ago a methodology was developed at NRG for the calculation of 'density-to-density' and 'one-group cross section-to-density' sensitivity matrices and covariance matrices for final nuclide densities for burnup schemes consisting of multiple sets of flux/spectrum and burnup calculations. The applicability of the methodology was then demonstrated by calculations of BR3 MOX pin irradiation experiments employing multi-group cross section uncertainty data from the EAF4 data library. A recent development is the extension of this methodology to enable its application in combination with the OCTOPUS-MCNP-FISPACT/ORIGEN Monte Carlo burnup scheme. This required some extensions to the sensitivity matrix calculation tool CASEMATE. The extended methodology was applied on the 'HTR Plutonium Cell Burnup Benchmark' to calculate the uncertainties (covariances) in the final densities, as far as these uncertainties are caused by uncertainties in cross sections. Up to 600 MWd/kg these uncertainties are larger than the differences between the code systems. However, it should be kept in mind that the calculated uncertainties are based on EAF4 uncertainty data. It is not exactly clear on beforehand what a proper set of associated (MCNP) cross sections and covariances would yield in terms of final uncertainties in calculated densities. This will be investigated, by the same formalism, once these data becomes available. It should be noted that the studies performed up till the present date are mainly concerned with the influence of uncertainties in cross sections. The influence of uncertainties in the decay constants, although included in the formalism, is not considered further. Also the influence of other uncertainties (such as -geometrical- modelling approximations) has been left out of consideration for the time being. (authors)
Uncertainty Propagation Analysis for the Monte Carlo Time-Dependent Simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaukata, Nadeem; Shim, Hyung Jin
2015-01-01
In this paper, a conventional method to control the neutron population for super-critical systems is implemented. Instead of considering the cycles, the simulation is divided in time intervals. At the end of each time interval, neutron population control is applied on the banked neutrons. Randomly selected neutrons are discarded, until the size of neutron population matches the initial neutron histories at the beginning of time simulation. A time-dependent simulation mode has also been implemented in the development version of SERPENT 2 Monte Carlo code. In this mode, sequential population control mechanism has been proposed for modeling of prompt super-critical systems. A Monte Carlo method has been properly used in TART code for dynamic criticality calculations. For super-critical systems, the neutron population is allowed to grow over a period of time. The neutron population is uniformly combed to return it to the neutron population started with at the beginning of time boundary. In this study, conventional time-dependent Monte Carlo (TDMC) algorithm is implemented. There is an exponential growth of neutron population in estimation of neutron density tally for super-critical systems and the number of neutrons being tracked exceed the memory of the computer. In order to control this exponential growth at the end of each time boundary, a conventional time cut-off controlling population strategy is included in TDMC. A scale factor is introduced to tally the desired neutron density at the end of each time boundary. The main purpose of this paper is the quantification of uncertainty propagation in neutron densities at the end of each time boundary for super-critical systems. This uncertainty is caused by the uncertainty resulting from the introduction of scale factor. The effectiveness of TDMC is examined for one-group infinite homogeneous problem (the rod model) and two-group infinite homogeneous problem. The desired neutron density is tallied by the introduction of
Uncertainty Propagation Analysis for the Monte Carlo Time-Dependent Simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shaukata, Nadeem; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2015-10-15
In this paper, a conventional method to control the neutron population for super-critical systems is implemented. Instead of considering the cycles, the simulation is divided in time intervals. At the end of each time interval, neutron population control is applied on the banked neutrons. Randomly selected neutrons are discarded, until the size of neutron population matches the initial neutron histories at the beginning of time simulation. A time-dependent simulation mode has also been implemented in the development version of SERPENT 2 Monte Carlo code. In this mode, sequential population control mechanism has been proposed for modeling of prompt super-critical systems. A Monte Carlo method has been properly used in TART code for dynamic criticality calculations. For super-critical systems, the neutron population is allowed to grow over a period of time. The neutron population is uniformly combed to return it to the neutron population started with at the beginning of time boundary. In this study, conventional time-dependent Monte Carlo (TDMC) algorithm is implemented. There is an exponential growth of neutron population in estimation of neutron density tally for super-critical systems and the number of neutrons being tracked exceed the memory of the computer. In order to control this exponential growth at the end of each time boundary, a conventional time cut-off controlling population strategy is included in TDMC. A scale factor is introduced to tally the desired neutron density at the end of each time boundary. The main purpose of this paper is the quantification of uncertainty propagation in neutron densities at the end of each time boundary for super-critical systems. This uncertainty is caused by the uncertainty resulting from the introduction of scale factor. The effectiveness of TDMC is examined for one-group infinite homogeneous problem (the rod model) and two-group infinite homogeneous problem. The desired neutron density is tallied by the introduction of
Uncertainty assessment in geodetic network adjustment by combining GUM and Monte-Carlo-simulations
Niemeier, Wolfgang; Tengen, Dieter
2017-06-01
In this article first ideas are presented to extend the classical concept of geodetic network adjustment by introducing a new method for uncertainty assessment as two-step analysis. In the first step the raw data and possible influencing factors are analyzed using uncertainty modeling according to GUM (Guidelines to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). This approach is well established in metrology, but rarely adapted within Geodesy. The second step consists of Monte-Carlo-Simulations (MC-simulations) for the complete processing chain from raw input data and pre-processing to adjustment computations and quality assessment. To perform these simulations, possible realizations of raw data and the influencing factors are generated, using probability distributions for all variables and the established concept of pseudo-random number generators. Final result is a point cloud which represents the uncertainty of the estimated coordinates; a confidence region can be assigned to these point clouds, as well. This concept may replace the common concept of variance propagation and the quality assessment of adjustment parameters by using their covariance matrix. It allows a new way for uncertainty assessment in accordance with the GUM concept for uncertainty modelling and propagation. As practical example the local tie network in "Metsähovi Fundamental Station", Finland is used, where classical geodetic observations are combined with GNSS data.
Monte Carlo approaches for uncertainty quantification of criticality for system dimensions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kiedrowski, B.C.; Brown, F.B.
2013-01-01
One of the current challenges in nuclear engineering computations is the issue of performing uncertainty analysis for either calculations or experimental measurements. This paper specifically focuses on the issue of estimating the uncertainties arising from geometric tolerances. For this paper, two techniques for uncertainty quantification are studied. The first is the forward propagation technique, which can be thought of as a 'brute force' approach; uncertain system parameters are randomly sampled, the calculation is run, and uncertainties are found from the empirically obtained distribution of results. This approach need make no approximations in principle, but is very computationally expensive. The other approach investigated is the adjoint-based approach; system sensitivities are computed via a single Monte Carlo calculation and those are used with a covariance matrix to provide a linear estimate of the uncertainty. Demonstration calculations are performed with the MCNP6 code for both techniques. The 2 techniques are tested on 2 cases: the first case is a solid, bare cylinder of Pu-metal while the second case is a can of plutonium nitrate solution. The results show that the forward and adjoint approaches appear to agree in some cases where the responses are not non-linearly correlated. In other cases, the uncertainties in the effective multiplication k disagree for reasons not yet known
Reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in Monte Carlo-based treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chetty, Indrin J.; Rosu, Mihaela; Kessler, Marc L.; Fraass, Benedick A.; Haken, Randall K. ten; Kong, Feng-Ming; McShan, Daniel L.
2006-01-01
Purpose: To investigate methods of reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in doses to targets and normal tissues in Monte Carlo (MC)-based treatment planning. Methods and Materials: Methods for quantifying statistical uncertainties in dose, such as uncertainty specification to specific dose points, or to volume-based regions, were analyzed in MC-based treatment planning for 5 lung cancer patients. The effect of statistical uncertainties on target and normal tissue dose indices was evaluated. The concept of uncertainty volume histograms for targets and organs at risk was examined, along with its utility, in conjunction with dose volume histograms, in assessing the acceptability of the statistical precision in dose distributions. The uncertainty evaluation tools were extended to four-dimensional planning for application on multiple instances of the patient geometry. All calculations were performed using the Dose Planning Method MC code. Results: For targets, generalized equivalent uniform doses and mean target doses converged at 150 million simulated histories, corresponding to relative uncertainties of less than 2% in the mean target doses. For the normal lung tissue (a volume-effect organ), mean lung dose and normal tissue complication probability converged at 150 million histories despite the large range in the relative organ uncertainty volume histograms. For 'serial' normal tissues such as the spinal cord, large fluctuations exist in point dose relative uncertainties. Conclusions: The tools presented here provide useful means for evaluating statistical precision in MC-based dose distributions. Tradeoffs between uncertainties in doses to targets, volume-effect organs, and 'serial' normal tissues must be considered carefully in determining acceptable levels of statistical precision in MC-computed dose distributions
Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Integral Measurements by Monte-Carlo Calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Noguere, G.; Bernard, D.; De Saint-Jean, C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)
2006-07-01
Full text of the publication follows: The generation of Multi-group cross sections together with relevant uncertainties is fundamental to assess the quality of integral data. The key information that are needed to propagate the microscopic experimental uncertainties to macroscopic reactor calculations are (1) the experimental covariance matrices, (2) the correlations between the parameters of the model and (3) the covariance matrices for the multi-group cross sections. The propagation of microscopic errors by Monte-Carlo technique was applied to determine the accuracy of the integral trends provided by the OSMOSE experiment carried out in the MINERVE reactor of the CEA Cadarache. The technique consists in coupling resonance shape analysis and deterministic codes. The integral trend and its accuracy obtained on the {sup 237}Np(n,{gamma}) reaction will be presented. (author)
Uncertainties associated with the use of the KENO Monte Carlo criticality codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Landers, N.F.; Petrie, L.M.
1989-01-01
The KENO multi-group Monte Carlo criticality codes have earned the reputation of being efficient, user friendly tools especially suited for the analysis of situations commonly encountered in the storage and transportation of fissile materials. Throughout their twenty years of service, a continuing effort has been made to maintain and improve these codes to meet the needs of the nuclear criticality safety community. Foremost among these needs is the knowledge of how to utilize the results safely and effectively. Therefore it is important that code users be aware of uncertainties that may affect their results. These uncertainties originate from approximations in the problem data, methods used to process cross sections, and assumptions, limitations and approximations within the criticality computer code itself. 6 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab
Karakoylu, E.; Franz, B.
2016-01-01
First attempt at quantifying uncertainties in ocean remote sensing reflectance satellite measurements. Based on 1000 iterations of Monte Carlo. Data source is a SeaWiFS 4-day composite, 2003. The uncertainty is for remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) at 443 nm.
Stand-alone core sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of ALFRED from Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pérez-Valseca, A.-D.; Espinosa-Paredes, G.; François, J.L.; Vázquez Rodríguez, A.; Martín-del-Campo, C.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. • Sensitivity analysis of Lead Fast Reactor (LFR). • Uncertainty and regression analysis of LFR. • 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%. • 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature the response is 1.87% in power. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) based on Monte Carlo simulation of sizes up to 2000. The methodology developed in this work considers the uncertainty of sensitivities and uncertainty of output variables due to a single-input-variable variation. The Advanced Lead fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED) is analyzed to determine the behavior of the essential parameters due to effects of mass flow and temperature of liquid lead. The ALFRED core mathematical model developed in this work is fully transient, which takes into account the heat transfer in an annular fuel pellet design, the thermo-fluid in the core, and the neutronic processes, which are modeled with point kinetic with feedback fuel temperature and expansion effects. The sensitivity evaluated in terms of the relative standard deviation (RSD) showed that for 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%, and for 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature is 1.87%. The regression analysis with mass flow rate as the predictor variable showed statistically valid cubic correlations for neutron flux and linear relationship neutron flux as a function of the lead temperature. No statistically valid correlation was observed for the reactivity as a function of the mass flow rate and for the lead temperature. These correlations are useful for the study, analysis, and design of any LFR.
Comparison of ISO-GUM and Monte Carlo Method for Evaluation of Measurement Uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ha, Young-Cheol; Her, Jae-Young; Lee, Seung-Jun; Lee, Kang-Jin [Korea Gas Corporation, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)
2014-07-15
To supplement the ISO-GUM method for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, a simulation program using the Monte Carlo method (MCM) was developed, and the MCM and GUM methods were compared. The results are as follows: (1) Even under a non-normal probability distribution of the measurement, MCM provides an accurate coverage interval; (2) Even if a probability distribution that emerged from combining a few non-normal distributions looks as normal, there are cases in which the actual distribution is not normal and the non-normality can be determined by the probability distribution of the combined variance; and (3) If type-A standard uncertainties are involved in the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, GUM generally offers an under-valued coverage interval. However, this problem can be solved by the Bayesian evaluation of type-A standard uncertainty. In this case, the effective degree of freedom for the combined variance is not required in the evaluation of expanded uncertainty, and the appropriate coverage factor for 95% level of confidence was determined to be 1.96.
Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, T.
2015-01-01
Research on the uncertainty of nuclear data is motivated by practical necessity. Nuclear data uncertainties can propagate through nuclear system simulations into operation and safety related parameters. The tolerance for uncertainties in nuclear reactor design and operation can affect the economic efficiency of nuclear power, and essentially its sustainability. The goal of the present PhD research is to establish a methodology of nuclear data uncertainty quantification (NDUQ) for MCNPX, the continuous-energy Monte-Carlo (M-C) code. The high fidelity (continuous-energy treatment and flexible geometry modelling) of MCNPX makes it the choice of routine criticality safety calculations at PSI/LRS, but also raises challenges for NDUQ by conventional sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods. For example, only recently in 2011, the capability of calculating continuous energy κ_e_f_f sensitivity to nuclear data was demonstrated in certain M-C codes by using the method of iterated fission probability. The methodology developed during this PhD research is fundamentally different from the conventional S/U approach: nuclear data are treated as random variables and sampled in accordance to presumed probability distributions. When sampled nuclear data are used in repeated model calculations, the output variance is attributed to the collective uncertainties of nuclear data. The NUSS (Nuclear data Uncertainty Stochastic Sampling) tool is based on this sampling approach and implemented to work with MCNPX’s ACE format of nuclear data, which also gives NUSS compatibility with MCNP and SERPENT M-C codes. In contrast, multigroup uncertainties are used for the sampling of ACE-formatted pointwise-energy nuclear data in a groupwise manner due to the more limited quantity and quality of nuclear data uncertainties. Conveniently, the usage of multigroup nuclear data uncertainties allows consistent comparison between NUSS and other methods (both S/U and sampling-based) that employ the same
Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhu, T.
2015-07-01
Research on the uncertainty of nuclear data is motivated by practical necessity. Nuclear data uncertainties can propagate through nuclear system simulations into operation and safety related parameters. The tolerance for uncertainties in nuclear reactor design and operation can affect the economic efficiency of nuclear power, and essentially its sustainability. The goal of the present PhD research is to establish a methodology of nuclear data uncertainty quantification (NDUQ) for MCNPX, the continuous-energy Monte-Carlo (M-C) code. The high fidelity (continuous-energy treatment and flexible geometry modelling) of MCNPX makes it the choice of routine criticality safety calculations at PSI/LRS, but also raises challenges for NDUQ by conventional sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods. For example, only recently in 2011, the capability of calculating continuous energy κ{sub eff} sensitivity to nuclear data was demonstrated in certain M-C codes by using the method of iterated fission probability. The methodology developed during this PhD research is fundamentally different from the conventional S/U approach: nuclear data are treated as random variables and sampled in accordance to presumed probability distributions. When sampled nuclear data are used in repeated model calculations, the output variance is attributed to the collective uncertainties of nuclear data. The NUSS (Nuclear data Uncertainty Stochastic Sampling) tool is based on this sampling approach and implemented to work with MCNPX’s ACE format of nuclear data, which also gives NUSS compatibility with MCNP and SERPENT M-C codes. In contrast, multigroup uncertainties are used for the sampling of ACE-formatted pointwise-energy nuclear data in a groupwise manner due to the more limited quantity and quality of nuclear data uncertainties. Conveniently, the usage of multigroup nuclear data uncertainties allows consistent comparison between NUSS and other methods (both S/U and sampling-based) that employ the same
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ma, X.B., E-mail: maxb@ncepu.edu.cn; Qiu, R.M.; Chen, Y.X.
2017-02-15
Uncertainties regarding fission fractions are essential in understanding antineutrino flux predictions in reactor antineutrino experiments. A new Monte Carlo-based method to evaluate the covariance coefficients between isotopes is proposed. The covariance coefficients are found to vary with reactor burnup and may change from positive to negative because of balance effects in fissioning. For example, between {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu, the covariance coefficient changes from 0.15 to −0.13. Using the equation relating fission fraction and atomic density, consistent uncertainties in the fission fraction and covariance matrix were obtained. The antineutrino flux uncertainty is 0.55%, which does not vary with reactor burnup. The new value is about 8.3% smaller. - Highlights: • The covariance coefficients between isotopes vs reactor burnup may change its sign because of two opposite effects. • The relation between fission fraction uncertainty and atomic density are first studied. • A new MC-based method of evaluating the covariance coefficients between isotopes was proposed.
Nishimura, N.; Rauscher, T.; Hirschi, R.; Murphy, A. St J.; Cescutti, G.; Travaglio, C.
2018-03-01
Thermonuclear supernovae originating from the explosion of a white dwarf accreting mass from a companion star have been suggested as a site for the production of p nuclides. Such nuclei are produced during the explosion, in layers enriched with seed nuclei coming from prior strong s processing. These seeds are transformed into proton-richer isotopes mainly by photodisintegration reactions. Several thousand trajectories from a 2D explosion model were used in a Monte Carlo approach. Temperature-dependent uncertainties were assigned individually to thousands of rates varied simultaneously in post-processing in an extended nuclear reaction network. The uncertainties in the final nuclear abundances originating from uncertainties in the astrophysical reaction rates were determined. In addition to the 35 classical p nuclides, abundance uncertainties were also determined for the radioactive nuclides 92Nb, 97, 98Tc, 146Sm, and for the abundance ratios Y(92Mo)/Y(94Mo), Y(92Nb)/Y(92Mo), Y(97Tc)/Y(98Ru), Y(98Tc)/Y(98Ru), and Y(146Sm)/Y(144Sm), important for Galactic Chemical Evolution studies. Uncertainties found were generally lower than a factor of 2, although most nucleosynthesis flows mainly involve predicted rates with larger uncertainties. The main contribution to the total uncertainties comes from a group of trajectories with high peak density originating from the interior of the exploding white dwarf. The distinction between low-density and high-density trajectories allows more general conclusions to be drawn, also applicable to other simulations of white dwarf explosions.
Uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo method in the measurement of phase by ESPI
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anguiano Morales, Marcelino; Martinez, Amalia; Rayas, J. A.; Cordero, Raul R.
2008-01-01
A method for simultaneously measuring whole field in-plane displacements by using optical fiber and based on the dual-beam illumination principle electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI) is presented in this paper. A set of single mode optical fibers and beamsplitter are employed to split the laser beam into four beams of equal intensity.One pair of fibers is utilized to illuminate the sample in the horizontal plane so it is sensitive only to horizontal in-plane displacement. Another pair of optical fibers is set to be sensitive only to vertical in-plane displacement. Each pair of optical fibers differs in longitude to avoid unwanted interference. By means of a Fourier-transform method of fringe-pattern analysis (Takeda method), we can obtain the quantitative data of whole field displacements. We found the uncertainty associated with the phases by mean of Monte Carlo-based technique
A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty
Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.
2011-05-01
Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.
Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification Using Quasi-1D SRM Ballistic Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Davide Viganò
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Compactness, reliability, readiness, and construction simplicity of solid rocket motors make them very appealing for commercial launcher missions and embarked systems. Solid propulsion grants high thrust-to-weight ratio, high volumetric specific impulse, and a Technology Readiness Level of 9. However, solid rocket systems are missing any throttling capability at run-time, since pressure-time evolution is defined at the design phase. This lack of mission flexibility makes their missions sensitive to deviations of performance from nominal behavior. For this reason, the reliability of predictions and reproducibility of performances represent a primary goal in this field. This paper presents an analysis of SRM performance uncertainties throughout the implementation of a quasi-1D numerical model of motor internal ballistics based on Shapiro’s equations. The code is coupled with a Monte Carlo algorithm to evaluate statistics and propagation of some peculiar uncertainties from design data to rocker performance parameters. The model has been set for the reproduction of a small-scale rocket motor, discussing a set of parametric investigations on uncertainty propagation across the ballistic model.
Holmes, Jesse Curtis
established that depends on uncertainties in the physics models and methodology employed to produce the DOS. Through Monte Carlo sampling of perturbations from the reference phonon spectrum, an S(alpha, beta) covariance matrix may be generated. In this work, density functional theory and lattice dynamics in the harmonic approximation are used to calculate the phonon DOS for hexagonal crystalline graphite. This form of graphite is used as an example material for the purpose of demonstrating procedures for analyzing, calculating and processing thermal neutron inelastic scattering uncertainty information. Several sources of uncertainty in thermal neutron inelastic scattering calculations are examined, including sources which cannot be directly characterized through a description of the phonon DOS uncertainty, and their impacts are evaluated. Covariances for hexagonal crystalline graphite S(alpha, beta) data are quantified by coupling the standard methodology of LEAPR with a Monte Carlo sampling process. The mechanics of efficiently representing and processing this covariance information is also examined. Finally, with appropriate sensitivity information, it is shown that an S(alpha, beta) covariance matrix can be propagated to generate covariance data for integrated cross sections, secondary energy distributions, and coupled energy-angle distributions. This approach enables a complete description of thermal neutron inelastic scattering cross section uncertainties which may be employed to improve the simulation of nuclear systems.
Uncertainty analysis in the simulation of an HPGe detector using the Monte Carlo Code MCNP5
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gallardo, Sergio; Pozuelo, Fausto; Querol, Andrea; Verdu, Gumersindo; Rodenas, Jose; Ortiz, J.; Pereira, Claubia
2013-01-01
A gamma spectrometer including an HPGe detector is commonly used for environmental radioactivity measurements. Many works have been focused on the simulation of the HPGe detector using Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP5. However, the simulation of this kind of detectors presents important difficulties due to the lack of information from manufacturers and due to loss of intrinsic properties in aging detectors. Some parameters such as the active volume or the Ge dead layer thickness are many times unknown and are estimated during simulations. In this work, a detailed model of an HPGe detector and a petri dish containing a certified gamma source has been done. The certified gamma source contains nuclides to cover the energy range between 50 and 1800 keV. As a result of the simulation, the Pulse Height Distribution (PHD) is obtained and the efficiency curve can be calculated from net peak areas and taking into account the certified activity of the source. In order to avoid errors due to the net area calculation, the simulated PHD is treated using the GammaVision software. On the other hand, it is proposed to use the Noether-Wilks formula to do an uncertainty analysis of model with the main goal of determining the efficiency curve of this detector and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty analysis has been focused on dead layer thickness at different positions of the crystal. Results confirm the important role of the dead layer thickness in the low energy range of the efficiency curve. In the high energy range (from 300 to 1800 keV) the main contribution to the absolute uncertainty is due to variations in the active volume. (author)
Uncertainty analysis in the simulation of an HPGe detector using the Monte Carlo Code MCNP5
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gallardo, Sergio; Pozuelo, Fausto; Querol, Andrea; Verdu, Gumersindo; Rodenas, Jose, E-mail: sergalbe@upv.es [Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, (Spain). Instituto de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofisica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM); Ortiz, J. [Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, (Spain). Servicio de Radiaciones. Lab. de Radiactividad Ambiental; Pereira, Claubia [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear
2013-07-01
A gamma spectrometer including an HPGe detector is commonly used for environmental radioactivity measurements. Many works have been focused on the simulation of the HPGe detector using Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP5. However, the simulation of this kind of detectors presents important difficulties due to the lack of information from manufacturers and due to loss of intrinsic properties in aging detectors. Some parameters such as the active volume or the Ge dead layer thickness are many times unknown and are estimated during simulations. In this work, a detailed model of an HPGe detector and a petri dish containing a certified gamma source has been done. The certified gamma source contains nuclides to cover the energy range between 50 and 1800 keV. As a result of the simulation, the Pulse Height Distribution (PHD) is obtained and the efficiency curve can be calculated from net peak areas and taking into account the certified activity of the source. In order to avoid errors due to the net area calculation, the simulated PHD is treated using the GammaVision software. On the other hand, it is proposed to use the Noether-Wilks formula to do an uncertainty analysis of model with the main goal of determining the efficiency curve of this detector and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty analysis has been focused on dead layer thickness at different positions of the crystal. Results confirm the important role of the dead layer thickness in the low energy range of the efficiency curve. In the high energy range (from 300 to 1800 keV) the main contribution to the absolute uncertainty is due to variations in the active volume. (author)
Uncertainty versus variability in Monte Carlo simulations of human exposure through food pathways
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McKone, T.E.
1994-01-01
An important issue in both the risk characterization and subsequent risk management of contaminated soil is how precisely we can characterize the distribution among individuals of potential doses associated with chemical contaminants in soil and whether this level of precision favors the use of population distributions of exposure over the use of single scenario representations. For lipophilic contaminants, such as dioxins, furans, polychlorinated biphenyls, pesticides, and for metals such as lead and mercury, exposures through food have been demonstrated to be dominant contributors to total dose within non-occupationally exposed populations. However, overall uncertainties in estimating potential doses through food chains are much larger than uncertainties associated with other exposure pathways. A general model is described here for estimating the ratio of potential dose to contaminant concentration in soil for homegrown foods contaminated by lipophilic, nonionic organic chemicals. This model includes parameters describing homegrown food consumption rates, exposure duration, biotransfer factors, and partition factors. For the parameters needed in this model, the mean and variance are often the only moments of the parameter distribution available. Parameters are divided into three categories, uncertain parameters, variable parameters, and mixed uncertain/variable parameters. Using soils contaminated by hexachlorbenzene (HCB) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as cases studies, a stepwise Monte Carlo analysis is used to develop a histogram that apportions variance in the outcome (ratio of potential dose by food pathways to soil concentration) to variance in each of the three input categories. The results represent potential doses in households consuming homegrown foods
Vera-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Ruiz-Morales, Carmen; González-López, Antonio
2018-03-01
To provide a multi-stage model to calculate uncertainty in radiochromic film dosimetry with Monte-Carlo techniques. This new approach is applied to single-channel and multichannel algorithms. Two lots of Gafchromic EBT3 are exposed in two different Varian linacs. They are read with an EPSON V800 flatbed scanner. The Monte-Carlo techniques in uncertainty analysis provide a numerical representation of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. From this numerical representation, traditional parameters of uncertainty analysis as the standard deviations and bias are calculated. Moreover, these numerical representations are used to investigate the shape of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. Also, another calibration film is read in four EPSON scanners (two V800 and two 10000XL) and the uncertainty analysis is carried out with the four images. The dose estimates of single-channel and multichannel algorithms show a Gaussian behavior and low bias. The multichannel algorithms lead to less uncertainty in the final dose estimates when the EPSON V800 is employed as reading device. In the case of the EPSON 10000XL, the single-channel algorithms provide less uncertainty in the dose estimates for doses higher than four Gy. A multi-stage model has been presented. With the aid of this model and the use of the Monte-Carlo techniques, the uncertainty of dose estimates for single-channel and multichannel algorithms are estimated. The application of the model together with Monte-Carlo techniques leads to a complete characterization of the uncertainties in radiochromic film dosimetry. Copyright © 2018 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Matthews, Samuel J.; O'Neill, Craig; Lackie, Mark A.
2017-06-01
Gravity gradiometry has a long legacy, with airborne/marine applications as well as surface applications receiving renewed recent interest. Recent instrumental advances has led to the emergence of downhole gravity gradiometry applications that have the potential for greater resolving power than borehole gravity alone. This has promise in both the petroleum and geosequestration industries; however, the effect of inherent uncertainties in the ability of downhole gravity gradiometry to resolve a subsurface signal is unknown. Here, we utilise the open source modelling package, Fatiando a Terra, to model both the gravity and gravity gradiometry responses of a subsurface body. We use a Monte Carlo approach to vary the geological structure and reference densities of the model within preset distributions. We then perform 100 000 simulations to constrain the mean response of the buried body as well as uncertainties in these results. We varied our modelled borehole to be either centred on the anomaly, adjacent to the anomaly (in the x-direction), and 2500 m distant to the anomaly (also in the x-direction). We demonstrate that gravity gradiometry is able to resolve a reservoir-scale modelled subsurface density variation up to 2500 m away, and that certain gravity gradient components (Gzz, Gxz, and Gxx) are particularly sensitive to this variation in gravity/gradiometry above the level of uncertainty in the model. The responses provided by downhole gravity gradiometry modelling clearly demonstrate a technique that can be utilised in determining a buried density contrast, which will be of particular use in the emerging industry of CO2 geosequestration. The results also provide a strong benchmark for the development of newly emerging prototype downhole gravity gradiometers.
Parameter uncertainty and model predictions: a review of Monte Carlo results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.
1979-01-01
Studies of parameter variability by Monte Carlo analysis are reviewed using repeated simulations of the model with randomly selected parameter values. At the beginning of each simulation, parameter values are chosen from specific frequency distributions. This process is continued for a number of iterations sufficient to converge on an estimate of the frequency distribution of the output variables. The purpose was to explore the general properties of error propagaton in models. Testing the implicit assumptions of analytical methods and pointing out counter-intuitive results produced by the Monte Carlo approach are additional points covered
Derwent, Richard G.; Parrish, David D.; Galbally, Ian E.; Stevenson, David S.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Naik, Vaishali; Young, Paul J.
2018-05-01
Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninety eight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although
Confronting uncertainty in model-based geostatistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
Minasny, B.; Vrugt, J.A.; McBratney, A.B.
2011-01-01
This paper demonstrates for the first time the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter inference in model-based soil geostatistics. We implemented the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to jointly summarize the posterior
Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.
2008-01-01
There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, L. L. W.; La Russa, D. J.; Rogers, D. W. O. [Ottawa Carleton Institute of Physics, Carleton University, Campus Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario KIS 5B6 (Canada)
2009-05-15
In a previous study [Med. Phys. 35, 1747-1755 (2008)], the authors proposed two direct methods of calculating the replacement correction factors (P{sub repl} or p{sub cav}p{sub dis}) for ion chambers by Monte Carlo calculation. By ''direct'' we meant the stopping-power ratio evaluation is not necessary. The two methods were named as the high-density air (HDA) and low-density water (LDW) methods. Although the accuracy of these methods was briefly discussed, it turns out that the assumption made regarding the dose in an HDA slab as a function of slab thickness is not correct. This issue is reinvestigated in the current study, and the accuracy of the LDW method applied to ion chambers in a {sup 60}Co photon beam is also studied. It is found that the two direct methods are in fact not completely independent of the stopping-power ratio of the two materials involved. There is an implicit dependence of the calculated P{sub repl} values upon the stopping-power ratio evaluation through the choice of an appropriate energy cutoff {Delta}, which characterizes a cavity size in the Spencer-Attix cavity theory. Since the {Delta} value is not accurately defined in the theory, this dependence on the stopping-power ratio results in a systematic uncertainty on the calculated P{sub repl} values. For phantom materials of similar effective atomic number to air, such as water and graphite, this systematic uncertainty is at most 0.2% for most commonly used chambers for either electron or photon beams. This uncertainty level is good enough for current ion chamber dosimetry, and the merits of the two direct methods of calculating P{sub repl} values are maintained, i.e., there is no need to do a separate stopping-power ratio calculation. For high-Z materials, the inherent uncertainty would make it practically impossible to calculate reliable P{sub repl} values using the two direct methods.
On the predictivity of pore-scale simulations: estimating uncertainties with multilevel Monte Carlo
Icardi, Matteo
2016-02-08
A fast method with tunable accuracy is proposed to estimate errors and uncertainties in pore-scale and Digital Rock Physics (DRP) problems. The overall predictivity of these studies can be, in fact, hindered by many factors including sample heterogeneity, computational and imaging limitations, model inadequacy and not perfectly known physical parameters. The typical objective of pore-scale studies is the estimation of macroscopic effective parameters such as permeability, effective diffusivity and hydrodynamic dispersion. However, these are often non-deterministic quantities (i.e., results obtained for specific pore-scale sample and setup are not totally reproducible by another “equivalent” sample and setup). The stochastic nature can arise due to the multi-scale heterogeneity, the computational and experimental limitations in considering large samples, and the complexity of the physical models. These approximations, in fact, introduce an error that, being dependent on a large number of complex factors, can be modeled as random. We propose a general simulation tool, based on multilevel Monte Carlo, that can reduce drastically the computational cost needed for computing accurate statistics of effective parameters and other quantities of interest, under any of these random errors. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to include Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in pore-scale physics and simulation. The method can also provide estimates of the discretization error and it is tested on three-dimensional transport problems in heterogeneous materials, where the sampling procedure is done by generation algorithms able to reproduce realistic consolidated and unconsolidated random sphere and ellipsoid packings and arrangements. A totally automatic workflow is developed in an open-source code [2015. https://bitbucket.org/micardi/porescalemc.], that include rigid body physics and random packing algorithms, unstructured mesh discretization, finite volume solvers
Dunn, William L
2012-01-01
Exploring Monte Carlo Methods is a basic text that describes the numerical methods that have come to be known as "Monte Carlo." The book treats the subject generically through the first eight chapters and, thus, should be of use to anyone who wants to learn to use Monte Carlo. The next two chapters focus on applications in nuclear engineering, which are illustrative of uses in other fields. Five appendices are included, which provide useful information on probability distributions, general-purpose Monte Carlo codes for radiation transport, and other matters. The famous "Buffon's needle proble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bardenet Rémi
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Bayesian inference often requires integrating some function with respect to a posterior distribution. Monte Carlo methods are sampling algorithms that allow to compute these integrals numerically when they are not analytically tractable. We review here the basic principles and the most common Monte Carlo algorithms, among which rejection sampling, importance sampling and Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC methods. We give intuition on the theoretical justification of the algorithms as well as practical advice, trying to relate both. We discuss the application of Monte Carlo in experimental physics, and point to landmarks in the literature for the curious reader.
Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J
2018-06-01
The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert
2014-01-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional
Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert
2014-02-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more 'constants', each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived 'constants' must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship
Murthy, K. P. N.
2001-01-01
An introduction to the basics of Monte Carlo is given. The topics covered include, sample space, events, probabilities, random variables, mean, variance, covariance, characteristic function, chebyshev inequality, law of large numbers, central limit theorem (stable distribution, Levy distribution), random numbers (generation and testing), random sampling techniques (inversion, rejection, sampling from a Gaussian, Metropolis sampling), analogue Monte Carlo and Importance sampling (exponential b...
Zhang, G.; Lu, D.; Ye, M.; Gunzburger, M.
2011-12-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely used in many fields of uncertainty analysis to estimate the posterior distributions of parameters and credible intervals of predictions in the Bayesian framework. However, in practice, MCMC may be computationally unaffordable due to slow convergence and the excessive number of forward model executions required, especially when the forward model is expensive to compute. Both disadvantages arise from the curse of dimensionality, i.e., the posterior distribution is usually a multivariate function of parameters. Recently, sparse grid method has been demonstrated to be an effective technique for coping with high-dimensional interpolation or integration problems. Thus, in order to accelerate the forward model and avoid the slow convergence of MCMC, we propose a new method for uncertainty analysis based on sparse grid interpolation and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. First, we construct a polynomial approximation of the forward model in the parameter space by using the sparse grid interpolation. This approximation then defines an accurate surrogate posterior distribution that can be evaluated repeatedly at minimal computational cost. Second, instead of using MCMC, a quasi-Monte Carlo method is applied to draw samples in the parameter space. Then, the desired probability density function of each prediction is approximated by accumulating the posterior density values of all the samples according to the prediction values. Our method has the following advantages: (1) the polynomial approximation of the forward model on the sparse grid provides a very efficient evaluation of the surrogate posterior distribution; (2) the quasi-Monte Carlo method retains the same accuracy in approximating the PDF of predictions but avoids all disadvantages of MCMC. The proposed method is applied to a controlled numerical experiment of groundwater flow modeling. The results show that our method attains the same accuracy much more efficiently
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landry, Guillaume; Reniers, Brigitte; Murrer, Lars; Lutgens, Ludy; Bloemen-Van Gurp, Esther; Pignol, Jean-Philippe; Keller, Brian; Beaulieu, Luc; Verhaegen, Frank [Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands); Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5 (Canada); Departement de Radio-Oncologie et Centre de Recherche en Cancerologie, de l' Universite Laval, CHUQ, Pavillon L' Hotel-Dieu de Quebec, Quebec G1R 2J6 (Canada) and Departement de Physique, de Genie Physique et d' Optique, Universite Laval, Quebec G1K 7P4 (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands) and Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada)
2010-10-15
Purpose: The objective of this work is to assess the sensitivity of Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations to uncertainties in human tissue composition for a range of low photon energy brachytherapy sources: {sup 125}I, {sup 103}Pd, {sup 131}Cs, and an electronic brachytherapy source (EBS). The low energy photons emitted by these sources make the dosimetry sensitive to variations in tissue atomic number due to the dominance of the photoelectric effect. This work reports dose to a small mass of water in medium D{sub w,m} as opposed to dose to a small mass of medium in medium D{sub m,m}. Methods: Mean adipose, mammary gland, and breast tissues (as uniform mixture of the aforementioned tissues) are investigated as well as compositions corresponding to one standard deviation from the mean. Prostate mean compositions from three different literature sources are also investigated. Three sets of MC simulations are performed with the GEANT4 code: (1) Dose calculations for idealized TG-43-like spherical geometries using point sources. Radial dose profiles obtained in different media are compared to assess the influence of compositional uncertainties. (2) Dose calculations for four clinical prostate LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 125}I seeds (Model 2301, Best Medical, Springfield, VA). The effect of varying the prostate composition in the planning target volume (PTV) is investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. (3) Dose calculations for four clinical breast LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 103}Pd seeds (Model 2335, Best Medical). The effects of varying the adipose/gland ratio in the PTV and of varying the elemental composition of adipose and gland within one standard deviation of the assumed mean composition are investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. For (2) and (3), the influence of using the mass density from CT scans instead of unit mass density is also assessed. Results: Results from simulation (1) show that variations
Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr
2012-01-01
Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
William Salas; Steve Hagen
2013-01-01
This presentation will provide an overview of an approach for quantifying uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon emission from land use change. We generate uncertainty bounds around our final emissions estimate using a randomized, Monte Carlo (MC)-style sampling technique. This approach allows us to combine uncertainty from different sources without making...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cramer, S.N.
1984-01-01
The MORSE code is a large general-use multigroup Monte Carlo code system. Although no claims can be made regarding its superiority in either theoretical details or Monte Carlo techniques, MORSE has been, since its inception at ORNL in the late 1960s, the most widely used Monte Carlo radiation transport code. The principal reason for this popularity is that MORSE is relatively easy to use, independent of any installation or distribution center, and it can be easily customized to fit almost any specific need. Features of the MORSE code are described
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Mukhopadhyay, N. D.; Sampson, A. J.; Deniz, D.; Carlsson, G. A.; Williamson, J.; Malušek, Alexandr
2012-01-01
Roč. 70, č. 1 (2012), s. 315-323 ISSN 0969-8043 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Monte Carlo * correlated sampling * efficiency * uncertainty * bootstrap Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 1.179, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969804311004775
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh
2016-09-16
Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.
Palenčár, Rudolf; Sopkuliak, Peter; Palenčár, Jakub; Ďuriš, Stanislav; Suroviak, Emil; Halaj, Martin
2017-06-01
Evaluation of uncertainties of the temperature measurement by standard platinum resistance thermometer calibrated at the defining fixed points according to ITS-90 is a problem that can be solved in different ways. The paper presents a procedure based on the propagation of distributions using the Monte Carlo method. The procedure employs generation of pseudo-random numbers for the input variables of resistances at the defining fixed points, supposing the multivariate Gaussian distribution for input quantities. This allows taking into account the correlations among resistances at the defining fixed points. Assumption of Gaussian probability density function is acceptable, with respect to the several sources of uncertainties of resistances. In the case of uncorrelated resistances at the defining fixed points, the method is applicable to any probability density function. Validation of the law of propagation of uncertainty using the Monte Carlo method is presented on the example of specific data for 25 Ω standard platinum resistance thermometer in the temperature range from 0 to 660 °C. Using this example, we demonstrate suitability of the method by validation of its results.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McGraw, David [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States); Hershey, Ronald L. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)
2016-06-01
Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries. The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little
Variational Monte Carlo Technique
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 19; Issue 8. Variational Monte Carlo Technique: Ground State Energies of Quantum Mechanical Systems. Sukanta Deb. General Article Volume 19 Issue 8 August 2014 pp 713-739 ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cruz, D.F. da; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J. [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG, Petten (Netherlands)
2014-07-01
The Total Monte-Carlo (TMC) method has been applied extensively since 2008 to propagate the uncertainties in nuclear data for reactor parameters and fuel inventory, and for several types of advanced nuclear systems. The analyses have been performed considering different levels of complexity, ranging from a single fuel rod to a full 3-D reactor core at steady-state. The current work applies the TMC method for a full 3-D pressurized water reactor core model under steady-state and transient conditions, considering thermal-hydraulic feedback. As a transient scenario the study focused on a reactivity-initiated accident, namely a control rod ejection accident initiated by a mechanical failure of the control rod drive mechanism. The uncertainties on the main reactor parameters due to variations in nuclear data for the isotopes {sup 235},{sup 238}U, {sup 239}Pu and thermal scattering data for {sup 1}H in water were quantified. (author)
Monte Carlo codes and Monte Carlo simulator program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Higuchi, Kenji; Asai, Kiyoshi; Suganuma, Masayuki.
1990-03-01
Four typical Monte Carlo codes KENO-IV, MORSE, MCNP and VIM have been vectorized on VP-100 at Computing Center, JAERI. The problems in vector processing of Monte Carlo codes on vector processors have become clear through the work. As the result, it is recognized that these are difficulties to obtain good performance in vector processing of Monte Carlo codes. A Monte Carlo computing machine, which processes the Monte Carlo codes with high performances is being developed at our Computing Center since 1987. The concept of Monte Carlo computing machine and its performance have been investigated and estimated by using a software simulator. In this report the problems in vectorization of Monte Carlo codes, Monte Carlo pipelines proposed to mitigate these difficulties and the results of the performance estimation of the Monte Carlo computing machine by the simulator are described. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, F.B.
1981-01-01
Examination of the global algorithms and local kernels of conventional general-purpose Monte Carlo codes shows that multigroup Monte Carlo methods have sufficient structure to permit efficient vectorization. A structured multigroup Monte Carlo algorithm for vector computers is developed in which many particle events are treated at once on a cell-by-cell basis. Vectorization of kernels for tracking and variance reduction is described, and a new method for discrete sampling is developed to facilitate the vectorization of collision analysis. To demonstrate the potential of the new method, a vectorized Monte Carlo code for multigroup radiation transport analysis was developed. This code incorporates many features of conventional general-purpose production codes, including general geometry, splitting and Russian roulette, survival biasing, variance estimation via batching, a number of cutoffs, and generalized tallies of collision, tracklength, and surface crossing estimators with response functions. Predictions of vectorized performance characteristics for the CYBER-205 were made using emulated coding and a dynamic model of vector instruction timing. Computation rates were examined for a variety of test problems to determine sensitivities to batch size and vector lengths. Significant speedups are predicted for even a few hundred particles per batch, and asymptotic speedups by about 40 over equivalent Amdahl 470V/8 scalar codes arepredicted for a few thousand particles per batch. The principal conclusion is that vectorization of a general-purpose multigroup Monte Carlo code is well worth the significant effort required for stylized coding and major algorithmic changes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jalid Abdelilah
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In engineering industry, control of manufactured parts is usually done on a coordinate measuring machine (CMM, a sensor mounted at the end of the machine probes a set of points on the surface to be inspected. Data processing is performed subsequently using software, and the result of this measurement process either validates or not the conformity of the part. Measurement uncertainty is a crucial parameter for making the right decisions, and not taking into account this parameter can, therefore, sometimes lead to aberrant decisions. The determination of the uncertainty measurement on CMM is a complex task for the variety of influencing factors. Through this study, we aim to check if the uncertainty propagation model developed according to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM approach is valid, we present here a comparison of the GUM and Monte Carlo methods. This comparison is made to estimate a flatness deviation of a surface belonging to an industrial part and the uncertainty associated to the measurement result.
Guo, Changning; Doub, William H; Kauffman, John F
2010-08-01
Monte Carlo simulations were applied to investigate the propagation of uncertainty in both input variables and response measurements on model prediction for nasal spray product performance design of experiment (DOE) models in the first part of this study, with an initial assumption that the models perfectly represent the relationship between input variables and the measured responses. In this article, we discard the initial assumption, and extended the Monte Carlo simulation study to examine the influence of both input variable variation and product performance measurement variation on the uncertainty in DOE model coefficients. The Monte Carlo simulations presented in this article illustrate the importance of careful error propagation during product performance modeling. Our results show that the error estimates based on Monte Carlo simulation result in smaller model coefficient standard deviations than those from regression methods. This suggests that the estimated standard deviations from regression may overestimate the uncertainties in the model coefficients. Monte Carlo simulations provide a simple software solution to understand the propagation of uncertainty in complex DOE models so that design space can be specified with statistically meaningful confidence levels. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cacais, F.L.; Delgado, J.U., E-mail: facacais@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Loayza, V.M. [Instituto Nacional de Metrologia (INMETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Qualidade e Tecnologia
2016-07-01
In preparing solutions for the production of radionuclide metrology standards is necessary measuring the quantity Activity by mass. The gravimetric method by elimination is applied to perform weighing with smaller uncertainties. At this work is carried out the validation, by the Monte Carlo method, of the uncertainty calculation approach implemented by Lourenco and Bobin according to ISO GUM for the method by elimination. The results obtained by both uncertainty calculation methods were consistent indicating that were fulfilled the conditions for the application of ISO GUM in the preparation of radioactive standards. (author)
Propagation of uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulations in case of basic geodetic computations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wyszkowska Patrycja
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The determination of the accuracy of functions of measured or adjusted values may be a problem in geodetic computations. The general law of covariance propagation or in case of the uncorrelated observations the propagation of variance (or the Gaussian formula are commonly used for that purpose. That approach is theoretically justified for the linear functions. In case of the non-linear functions, the first-order Taylor series expansion is usually used but that solution is affected by the expansion error. The aim of the study is to determine the applicability of the general variance propagation law in case of the non-linear functions used in basic geodetic computations. The paper presents errors which are a result of negligence of the higher-order expressions and it determines the range of such simplification. The basis of that analysis is the comparison of the results obtained by the law of propagation of variance and the probabilistic approach, namely Monte Carlo simulations. Both methods are used to determine the accuracy of the following geodetic computations: the Cartesian coordinates of unknown point in the three-point resection problem, azimuths and distances of the Cartesian coordinates, height differences in the trigonometric and the geometric levelling. These simulations and the analysis of the results confirm the possibility of applying the general law of variance propagation in basic geodetic computations even if the functions are non-linear. The only condition is the accuracy of observations, which cannot be too low. Generally, this is not a problem with using present geodetic instruments.
Propagation of uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulations in case of basic geodetic computations
Wyszkowska, Patrycja
2017-12-01
The determination of the accuracy of functions of measured or adjusted values may be a problem in geodetic computations. The general law of covariance propagation or in case of the uncorrelated observations the propagation of variance (or the Gaussian formula) are commonly used for that purpose. That approach is theoretically justified for the linear functions. In case of the non-linear functions, the first-order Taylor series expansion is usually used but that solution is affected by the expansion error. The aim of the study is to determine the applicability of the general variance propagation law in case of the non-linear functions used in basic geodetic computations. The paper presents errors which are a result of negligence of the higher-order expressions and it determines the range of such simplification. The basis of that analysis is the comparison of the results obtained by the law of propagation of variance and the probabilistic approach, namely Monte Carlo simulations. Both methods are used to determine the accuracy of the following geodetic computations: the Cartesian coordinates of unknown point in the three-point resection problem, azimuths and distances of the Cartesian coordinates, height differences in the trigonometric and the geometric levelling. These simulations and the analysis of the results confirm the possibility of applying the general law of variance propagation in basic geodetic computations even if the functions are non-linear. The only condition is the accuracy of observations, which cannot be too low. Generally, this is not a problem with using present geodetic instruments.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Xu; Kozlowski, Tomasz
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Coupling of Monte Carlo code Serpent and thermal–hydraulics code RELAP5. • A convergence criterion is developed based on the statistical uncertainty of power. • Correlation between MC statistical uncertainty and coupled error is quantified. • Both UO 2 and MOX single assembly models are used in the coupled simulation. • Validation of coupling results with a multi-group transport code DeCART. - Abstract: Coupled multi-physics approach plays an important role in improving computational accuracy. Compared with deterministic neutronics codes, Monte Carlo codes have the advantage of a higher resolution level. In the present paper, a three-dimensional continuous-energy Monte Carlo reactor physics burnup calculation code, Serpent, is coupled with a thermal–hydraulics safety analysis code, RELAP5. The coupled Serpent/RELAP5 code capability is demonstrated by the improved axial power distribution of UO 2 and MOX single assembly models, based on the OECD-NEA/NRC PWR MOX/UO 2 Core Transient Benchmark. Comparisons of calculation results using the coupled code with those from the deterministic methods, specifically heterogeneous multi-group transport code DeCART, show that the coupling produces more precise results. A new convergence criterion for the coupled simulation is developed based on the statistical uncertainty in power distribution in the Monte Carlo code, rather than ad-hoc criteria used in previous research. The new convergence criterion is shown to be more rigorous, equally convenient to use but requiring a few more coupling steps to converge. Finally, the influence of Monte Carlo statistical uncertainty on the coupled error of power and thermal–hydraulics parameters is quantified. The results are presented such that they can be used to find the statistical uncertainty to use in Monte Carlo in order to achieve a desired precision in coupled simulation
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Examples. Arnab Chakraborty. General Article Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 25-34. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0025-0034. Keywords.
Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Sampling
Lemieux, Christiane
2009-01-01
Presents essential tools for using quasi-Monte Carlo sampling in practice. This book focuses on issues related to Monte Carlo methods - uniform and non-uniform random number generation, variance reduction techniques. It covers several aspects of quasi-Monte Carlo methods.
Whitehead, James Joshua
The analysis documented herein provides an integrated approach for the conduct of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques coupled with response surface-based methods for characterization of mixture-dependent variables. This novel methodology provides an innovative means of conducting optimization studies under uncertainty in propulsion system design. Analytic inputs are based upon empirical regression rate information obtained from design of experiments (DOE) mixture studies utilizing a mixed oxidizer hybrid rocket concept. Hybrid fuel regression rate was selected as the target response variable for optimization under uncertainty, with maximization of regression rate chosen as the driving objective. Characteristic operational conditions and propellant mixture compositions from experimental efforts conducted during previous foundational work were combined with elemental uncertainty estimates as input variables. Response surfaces for mixture-dependent variables and their associated uncertainty levels were developed using quadratic response equations incorporating single and two-factor interactions. These analysis inputs, response surface equations and associated uncertainty contributions were applied to a probabilistic MCS to develop dispersed regression rates as a function of operational and mixture input conditions within design space. Illustrative case scenarios were developed and assessed using this analytic approach including fully and partially constrained operational condition sets over all of design mixture space. In addition, optimization sets were performed across an operationally representative region in operational space and across all investigated mixture combinations. These scenarios were selected as representative examples relevant to propulsion system optimization, particularly for hybrid and solid rocket platforms. Ternary diagrams, including contour and surface plots, were developed and utilized to aid in
Predictive uncertainty analysis of a saltwater intrusion model using null-space Monte Carlo
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herckenrath, Daan; Langevin, Christian D.; Doherty, John
2011-01-01
variability did not make a noticeable difference to the uncertainty of the prediction. With this higher level of heterogeneity, however, the computational burden of generating calibration-constrained parameter fields approximately doubled. Predictive uncertainty variance computed through the NSMC method...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rajabalinejad, M.
2010-01-01
To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.
Monte Carlo principles and applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Raeside, D E [Oklahoma Univ., Oklahoma City (USA). Health Sciences Center
1976-03-01
The principles underlying the use of Monte Carlo methods are explained, for readers who may not be familiar with the approach. The generation of random numbers is discussed, and the connection between Monte Carlo methods and random numbers is indicated. Outlines of two well established Monte Carlo sampling techniques are given, together with examples illustrating their use. The general techniques for improving the efficiency of Monte Carlo calculations are considered. The literature relevant to the applications of Monte Carlo calculations in medical physics is reviewed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dubi, A.; Gerstl, S.A.W.
1979-05-01
The contributon Monte Carlo method is based on a new recipe to calculate target responses by means of volume integral of the contributon current in a region between the source and the detector. A comprehensive description of the method, its implementation in the general-purpose MCNP code, and results of the method for realistic nonhomogeneous, energy-dependent problems are presented. 23 figures, 10 tables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wollaber, Allan Benton
2016-01-01
This is a powerpoint presentation which serves as lecture material for the Parallel Computing summer school. It goes over the fundamentals of the Monte Carlo calculation method. The material is presented according to the following outline: Introduction (background, a simple example: estimating @@), Why does this even work? (The Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem), How to sample (inverse transform sampling, rejection), and An example from particle transport.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Creutz, M.
1986-01-01
The author discusses a recently developed algorithm for simulating statistical systems. The procedure interpolates between molecular dynamics methods and canonical Monte Carlo. The primary advantages are extremely fast simulations of discrete systems such as the Ising model and a relative insensitivity to random number quality. A variation of the algorithm gives rise to a deterministic dynamics for Ising spins. This model may be useful for high speed simulation of non-equilibrium phenomena
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wollaber, Allan Benton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-06-16
This is a powerpoint presentation which serves as lecture material for the Parallel Computing summer school. It goes over the fundamentals of the Monte Carlo calculation method. The material is presented according to the following outline: Introduction (background, a simple example: estimating π), Why does this even work? (The Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem), How to sample (inverse transform sampling, rejection), and An example from particle transport.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brockway, D.; Soran, P.; Whalen, P.
1985-01-01
A Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently calculate static alpha eigenvalues, N = ne/sup ..cap alpha..t/, for supercritical systems has been developed and tested. A direct Monte Carlo approach to calculating a static alpha is to simply follow the buildup in time of neutrons in a supercritical system and evaluate the logarithmic derivative of the neutron population with respect to time. This procedure is expensive, and the solution is very noisy and almost useless for a system near critical. The modified approach is to convert the time-dependent problem to a static ..cap alpha../sup -/eigenvalue problem and regress ..cap alpha.. on solutions of a/sup -/ k/sup -/eigenvalue problem. In practice, this procedure is much more efficient than the direct calculation, and produces much more accurate results. Because the Monte Carlo codes are intrinsically three-dimensional and use elaborate continuous-energy cross sections, this technique is now used as a standard for evaluating other calculational techniques in odd geometries or with group cross sections.
Mondal, A.
2010-03-01
In this paper, we study the uncertainty quantification in inverse problems for flows in heterogeneous porous media. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are used for hierarchical modeling of channelized permeability fields. Within each channel, the permeability is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. Uncertainty quantification in history matching is carried out hierarchically by constructing geologic facies boundaries as well as permeability fields within each facies using dynamic data such as production data. The search with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm results in very low acceptance rate, and consequently, the computations are CPU demanding. To speed-up the computations, we use a two-stage MCMC that utilizes upscaled models to screen the proposals. In our numerical results, we assume that the channels intersect the wells and the intersection locations are known. Our results show that the proposed algorithms are capable of capturing the channel boundaries and describe the permeability variations within the channels using dynamic production history at the wells. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mavrotas, George; Florios, Kostas; Vlachou, Dimitra
2010-01-01
For more than 40 years, Mathematical Programming is the traditional tool for energy planning at the national or regional level aiming at cost minimization subject to specific technological, political and demand satisfaction constraints. The liberalization of the energy market along with the ongoing technical progress increased the level of competition and forced energy consumers, even at the unit level, to make their choices among a large number of alternative or complementary energy technologies, fuels and/or suppliers. In the present work we develop a modelling framework for energy planning in units of the tertiary sector giving special emphasis to model reduction and to the uncertainty of the economic parameters. In the given case study, the energy rehabilitation of a hospital in Athens is examined and the installation of a cogeneration, absorption and compression unit is examined for the supply of the electricity, heating and cooling load. The basic innovation of the given energy model lies in the uncertainty modelling through the combined use of Mathematical Programming (namely, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, MILP) and Monte Carlo simulation that permits the risk management for the most volatile parameters of the objective function such as the fuel costs and the interest rate. The results come in the form of probability distributions that provide fruitful information to the decision maker. The effect of model reduction through appropriate data compression of the load data is also addressed.
Izadi, Arman; Kimiagari, Ali Mohammad
2014-05-01
Distribution network design as a strategic decision has long-term effect on tactical and operational supply chain management. In this research, the location-allocation problem is studied under demand uncertainty. The purposes of this study were to specify the optimal number and location of distribution centers and to determine the allocation of customer demands to distribution centers. The main feature of this research is solving the model with unknown demand function which is suitable with the real-world problems. To consider the uncertainty, a set of possible scenarios for customer demands is created based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The coefficient of variation of costs is mentioned as a measure of risk and the most stable structure for firm's distribution network is defined based on the concept of robust optimization. The best structure is identified using genetic algorithms and 14 % reduction in total supply chain costs is the outcome. Moreover, it imposes the least cost variation created by fluctuation in customer demands (such as epidemic diseases outbreak in some areas of the country) to the logistical system. It is noteworthy that this research is done in one of the largest pharmaceutical distribution firms in Iran.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P.
2009-01-01
To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software
Grum, M.; Aalderink, R.H.
1999-01-01
The rerun periods of detrimental effects ate often used as design criteria in urban storm water management. Considerable uncertainty is associated with the models used. This is either ignored or pooled with the inherent event to event variation such as rainfall depth It is here argued that
A Monte-Carlo investigation of the uncertainty of acoustic decay measurements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cabo, David Pérez; Seoane, Manuel A. Sobreira; Jacobsen, Finn
2012-01-01
Measurement of acoustic decays can be problematic at low frequencies: short decays cannot be evaluated accurately. Several effects influencing the evaluation will be reviewed in this paper. As new contribution, the measurement uncertainty due to one-third octave band pass filters will be analysed...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berne, A.
2001-01-01
Quantitative determinations of many radioactive analytes in environmental samples are based on a process in which several independent measurements of different properties are taken. The final results that are calculated using the data have to be evaluated for accuracy and precision. The estimate of the standard deviation, s, also called the combined standard uncertainty (CSU) associated with the result of this combined measurement can be used to evaluate the precision of the result. The CSU can be calculated by applying the law of propagation of uncertainty, which is based on the Taylor series expansion of the equation used to calculate the analytical result. The estimate of s can also be obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation. The data used in this simulation includes the values resulting from the individual measurements, the estimate of the variance of each value, including the type of distribution, and the equation used to calculate the analytical result. A comparison is made between these two methods of estimating the uncertainty of the calculated result. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Madsen, Henrik
2008-01-01
propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic......In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit...... of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilson, Brandon M; Smith, Barton L
2013-01-01
Uncertainties are typically assumed to be constant or a linear function of the measured value; however, this is generally not true. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is one example of a measurement technique that has highly nonlinear, time varying local uncertainties. Traditional uncertainty methods are not adequate for the estimation of the uncertainty of measurement statistics (mean and variance) in the presence of nonlinear, time varying errors. Propagation of instantaneous uncertainty estimates into measured statistics is performed allowing accurate uncertainty quantification of time-mean and statistics of measurements such as PIV. It is shown that random errors will always elevate the measured variance, and thus turbulent statistics such as u'u'-bar. Within this paper, nonlinear, time varying errors are propagated from instantaneous measurements into the measured mean and variance using the Taylor-series method. With these results and knowledge of the systematic and random uncertainty of each measurement, the uncertainty of the time-mean, the variance and covariance can be found. Applicability of the Taylor-series uncertainty equations to time varying systematic and random errors and asymmetric error distributions are demonstrated with Monte-Carlo simulations. The Taylor-series uncertainty estimates are always accurate for uncertainties on the mean quantity. The Taylor-series variance uncertainty is similar to the Monte-Carlo results for cases in which asymmetric random errors exist or the magnitude of the instantaneous variations in the random and systematic errors is near the ‘true’ variance. However, the Taylor-series method overpredicts the uncertainty in the variance as the instantaneous variations of systematic errors are large or are on the same order of magnitude as the ‘true’ variance. (paper)
Tolley, D. G., III; Foglia, L.; Harter, T.
2017-12-01
Late summer and early fall streamflow decreases caused by climate change and agricultural pumping contribute to increased water temperatures and result in large disconnected sections during dry years in many semi-arid regions with Mediterranean climate. This negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHMv3) was developed to assess future water management scenarios with the goal of improving aquatic species habitat while maintaining agricultural production in the valley. The Null Space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method available in PEST was used to quantify the range of predicted streamflow changes for three conjunctive use scenarios: 1) managed aquifer recharge (MAR), 2) in lieu recharge (ILR, substituting surface-water irrigation for irrigation with groundwater while flows are available), and 3) MAR + ILR. Random parameter sets were generated using the calibrated covariance matrix of the model, which were then recalibrated if the sum of squared residuals was greater than 10% of the original sum of squared weighted residuals. These calibration-constrained stochastic parameter sets were then used to obtain a distribution of streamflow changes resulting from implementing the conjunctive use scenarios. Preliminary results show that while the range of streamflow increases using managed aquifer recharge is much narrower (i.e., greater degree of certainty) than in lieu recharge, there are potentially much greater benefits to streamflow by implementing in lieu recharge (although also greater costs). Combining the two scenarios provides the greatest benefit for increasing late summer and early fall streamflow, as most of the MAR streamflow increases are during the spring and early summer which ILR is able to take advantage of. Incorporation of uncertainty into model predictions is critical for establishing and maintaining stakeholder trust
Monte Carlo Methods in Physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santoso, B.
1997-01-01
Method of Monte Carlo integration is reviewed briefly and some of its applications in physics are explained. A numerical experiment on random generators used in the monte Carlo techniques is carried out to show the behavior of the randomness of various methods in generating them. To account for the weight function involved in the Monte Carlo, the metropolis method is used. From the results of the experiment, one can see that there is no regular patterns of the numbers generated, showing that the program generators are reasonably good, while the experimental results, shows a statistical distribution obeying statistical distribution law. Further some applications of the Monte Carlo methods in physics are given. The choice of physical problems are such that the models have available solutions either in exact or approximate values, in which comparisons can be mode, with the calculations using the Monte Carlo method. Comparison show that for the models to be considered, good agreement have been obtained
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. M. Vali Samani
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The greatest part of constructed dams belongs to embankment dams and there are many examples of their failures throughout history. About one-third of the world’s dam failures have been caused by flood overtopping, which indicates that flood overtopping is an important factor affecting reservoir projects’ safety. Moreover, because of a poor understanding of the randomness of floods, reservoir water levels during flood seasons are often lowered artificially in order to avoid overtopping and protect the lives and property of downstream residents. So, estimation of dam overtopping risk with regard to uncertainties is more important than achieving the dam’s safety. This study presents the procedure for risk evaluation of dam overtopping due to various uncertaintiess in inﬂows and reservoir initial condition. Materials and Methods: This study aims to present a practical approach and compare the different uncertainty analysis methods in the evaluation of dam overtopping risk due to flood. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling methods were used to calculate the overtopping risk, evaluate the uncertainty, and calculate the highest water level during different flood events. To assess these methods from a practical point of view, the Maroon dam was chosen for the case study. Figure. 1 indicates the work procedure, including three parts: 1 Identification and evaluation of effective factors on flood routing and dam overtopping, 2 Data collection and analysis for reservoir routing and uncertainty analysis, 3 Uncertainty and risk analysis. Figure 1- Diagram of dam overtopping risk evaluation Results and Discussion: Figure 2 shows the results of the computed overtopping risks for the Maroon Dam without considering the wind effect, for the initial water level of 504 m as an example. As it is shown in Figure. 2, the trends of the risk curves computed by the different uncertainty analysis methods are similar
Khrutchinsky, Arkady; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Kutsen, Semion; Minenko, Victor; Khrouch, Valeri; Luckyanov, Nickolas; Voillequé, Paul; Bouville, André
2012-01-01
This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for 131I, 132I, 133I, and 135I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an “extended” neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of 131I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after the Chernobyl accident. PMID:22245289
Lectures on Monte Carlo methods
Madras, Neal
2001-01-01
Monte Carlo methods form an experimental branch of mathematics that employs simulations driven by random number generators. These methods are often used when others fail, since they are much less sensitive to the "curse of dimensionality", which plagues deterministic methods in problems with a large number of variables. Monte Carlo methods are used in many fields: mathematics, statistics, physics, chemistry, finance, computer science, and biology, for instance. This book is an introduction to Monte Carlo methods for anyone who would like to use these methods to study various kinds of mathemati
Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Janssen, Hans
2015-02-01
The majority of literature regarding optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) is devoted to increasing the efficiency of these sampling strategies through the development of new algorithms based on the combination of innovative space-filling criteria and specialized optimization schemes. However, little attention has been given to the impact of the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm, on the efficiency of OLHS strategies. Previous studies, as well as codes developed for OLHS, have relied on one of the following two approaches for the selection of the initial design in OLHS: (1) the use of random points in the hypercube intervals (random LHS), and (2) the use of midpoints in the hypercube intervals (midpoint LHS). Both approaches have been extensively used, but no attempt has been previously made to compare the efficiency and robustness of their resulting sample designs. In this study we compare the two approaches and show that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs are sensitive to the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm. It is also illustrated that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs based on midpoint LHS are significantly better those based on random LHS. The two approaches are compared by incorporating their resulting sample designs in Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for uncertainty propagation analysis, and then, by employing the sample designs in the selection of the training set for constructing non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) meta-models which subsequently replace the original full model in MCSs. The analysis is based on two case studies involving numerical simulation of density dependent flow and solute transport in porous media within the context of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. We show that the use of midpoint LHS as the initial design increases the efficiency and robustness of the resulting MCSs and NIPCE meta-models. The study also illustrates that this
Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...
Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods
Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody; Suciu, Carina
2017-01-01
This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the discretization of a associated probability law. The MLMC approach works with a hierarchy of biased approximations which become progressively more accurate and more expensive. Using a telescoping representation of the most accurate approximation, the method is able to reduce the computational cost for a given level of error versus i.i.d. sampling from this latter approximation. All of these ideas originated for cases where exact sampling from couples in the hierarchy is possible. This article considers the case where such exact sampling is not currently possible. We consider Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods which have been introduced in the literature and we describe different strategies which facilitate the application of MLMC within these methods.
Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods
Jasra, Ajay
2017-04-24
This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the discretization of a associated probability law. The MLMC approach works with a hierarchy of biased approximations which become progressively more accurate and more expensive. Using a telescoping representation of the most accurate approximation, the method is able to reduce the computational cost for a given level of error versus i.i.d. sampling from this latter approximation. All of these ideas originated for cases where exact sampling from couples in the hierarchy is possible. This article considers the case where such exact sampling is not currently possible. We consider Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods which have been introduced in the literature and we describe different strategies which facilitate the application of MLMC within these methods.
Monte Carlo simulation for IRRMA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gardner, R.P.; Liu Lianyan
2000-01-01
Monte Carlo simulation is fast becoming a standard approach for many radiation applications that were previously treated almost entirely by experimental techniques. This is certainly true for Industrial Radiation and Radioisotope Measurement Applications - IRRMA. The reasons for this include: (1) the increased cost and inadequacy of experimentation for design and interpretation purposes; (2) the availability of low cost, large memory, and fast personal computers; and (3) the general availability of general purpose Monte Carlo codes that are increasingly user-friendly, efficient, and accurate. This paper discusses the history and present status of Monte Carlo simulation for IRRMA including the general purpose (GP) and specific purpose (SP) Monte Carlo codes and future needs - primarily from the experience of the authors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chojnacki, E.; Benoit, J.P.
2007-01-01
Best estimate computer codes are increasingly used in nuclear industry for the accident management procedures and have been planned to be used for the licensing procedures. Contrary to conservative codes which are supposed to give penalizing results, best estimate codes attempt to calculate accidental transients in a realistic way. It becomes therefore of prime importance, in particular for technical organization as IRSN in charge of safety assessment, to know the uncertainty on the results of such codes. Thus, CSNI has sponsored few years ago (published in 1998) the Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) program on uncertainty methodologies used for a SBLOCA transient (LSTF-CL-18) and is now supporting the BEMUSE program for a LBLOCA transient (LOFT-L2-5). The large majority of BEMUSE participants (9 out of 10) use uncertainty methodologies based on a probabilistic modelling and all of them use Monte-Carlo simulations to propagate the uncertainties through their computer codes. Also, all of 'probabilistic participants' intend to use order statistics to determine the sampling size of the Monte-Carlo simulation and to derive the uncertainty ranges associated to their computer calculations. The first aim of this paper is to remind the advantages and also the assumptions of the probabilistic modelling and more specifically of order statistics (as Wilks' formula) in uncertainty methodologies. Indeed Monte-Carlo methods provide flexible and extremely powerful techniques for solving many of the uncertainty propagation problems encountered in nuclear safety analysis. However it is important to keep in mind that probabilistic methods are data intensive. That means, probabilistic methods cannot produce robust results unless a considerable body of information has been collected. A main interest of the use of order statistics results is to allow to take into account an unlimited number of uncertain parameters and, from a restricted number of code calculations to provide statistical
Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Jadoon, Khan
2016-08-08
A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In the MCMC simulations, posterior distribution was computed using Bayes rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell\\'s equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD mini-Explorer. The model parameters and uncertainty for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness are not well estimated as compared to layers electrical conductivity because layer thicknesses in the model exhibits a low sensitivity to the EMI measurements, and is hence difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC based inversion to the field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrate that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provide useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.
Adjoint electron Monte Carlo calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, T.M.
1986-01-01
Adjoint Monte Carlo is the most efficient method for accurate analysis of space systems exposed to natural and artificially enhanced electron environments. Recent adjoint calculations for isotropic electron environments include: comparative data for experimental measurements on electronics boxes; benchmark problem solutions for comparing total dose prediction methodologies; preliminary assessment of sectoring methods used during space system design; and total dose predictions on an electronics package. Adjoint Monte Carlo, forward Monte Carlo, and experiment are in excellent agreement for electron sources that simulate space environments. For electron space environments, adjoint Monte Carlo is clearly superior to forward Monte Carlo, requiring one to two orders of magnitude less computer time for relatively simple geometries. The solid-angle sectoring approximations used for routine design calculations can err by more than a factor of 2 on dose in simple shield geometries. For critical space systems exposed to severe electron environments, these potential sectoring errors demand the establishment of large design margins and/or verification of shield design by adjoint Monte Carlo/experiment
Monte Carlo theory and practice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
James, F.
1987-01-01
Historically, the first large-scale calculations to make use of the Monte Carlo method were studies of neutron scattering and absorption, random processes for which it is quite natural to employ random numbers. Such calculations, a subset of Monte Carlo calculations, are known as direct simulation, since the 'hypothetical population' of the narrower definition above corresponds directly to the real population being studied. The Monte Carlo method may be applied wherever it is possible to establish equivalence between the desired result and the expected behaviour of a stochastic system. The problem to be solved may already be of a probabilistic or statistical nature, in which case its Monte Carlo formulation will usually be a straightforward simulation, or it may be of a deterministic or analytic nature, in which case an appropriate Monte Carlo formulation may require some imagination and may appear contrived or artificial. In any case, the suitability of the method chosen will depend on its mathematical properties and not on its superficial resemblance to the problem to be solved. The authors show how Monte Carlo techniques may be compared with other methods of solution of the same physical problem
Reflections on early Monte Carlo calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spanier, J.
1992-01-01
Monte Carlo methods for solving various particle transport problems developed in parallel with the evolution of increasingly sophisticated computer programs implementing diffusion theory and low-order moments calculations. In these early years, Monte Carlo calculations and high-order approximations to the transport equation were seen as too expensive to use routinely for nuclear design but served as invaluable aids and supplements to design with less expensive tools. The earliest Monte Carlo programs were quite literal; i.e., neutron and other particle random walk histories were simulated by sampling from the probability laws inherent in the physical system without distoration. Use of such analogue sampling schemes resulted in a good deal of time being spent in examining the possibility of lowering the statistical uncertainties in the sample estimates by replacing simple, and intuitively obvious, random variables by those with identical means but lower variances
Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.
1984-01-01
A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)
SPQR: a Monte Carlo reactor kinetics code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cramer, S.N.; Dodds, H.L.
1980-02-01
The SPQR Monte Carlo code has been developed to analyze fast reactor core accident problems where conventional methods are considered inadequate. The code is based on the adiabatic approximation of the quasi-static method. This initial version contains no automatic material motion or feedback. An existing Monte Carlo code is used to calculate the shape functions and the integral quantities needed in the kinetics module. Several sample problems have been devised and analyzed. Due to the large statistical uncertainty associated with the calculation of reactivity in accident simulations, the results, especially at later times, differ greatly from deterministic methods. It was also found that in large uncoupled systems, the Monte Carlo method has difficulty in handling asymmetric perturbations
Reconstruction of Monte Carlo replicas from Hessian parton distributions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hou, Tie-Jiun [Department of Physics, Southern Methodist University,Dallas, TX 75275-0181 (United States); Gao, Jun [INPAC, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology,Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); High Energy Physics Division, Argonne National Laboratory,Argonne, Illinois, 60439 (United States); Huston, Joey [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Nadolsky, Pavel [Department of Physics, Southern Methodist University,Dallas, TX 75275-0181 (United States); Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Wang, Bo-Ting; Xie, Ke Ping [Department of Physics, Southern Methodist University,Dallas, TX 75275-0181 (United States); Dulat, Sayipjamal [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); School of Physics Science and Technology, Xinjiang University,Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046 (China); Center for Theoretical Physics, Xinjiang University,Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046 (China); Pumplin, Jon; Yuan, C.P. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States)
2017-03-20
We explore connections between two common methods for quantifying the uncertainty in parton distribution functions (PDFs), based on the Hessian error matrix and Monte-Carlo sampling. CT14 parton distributions in the Hessian representation are converted into Monte-Carlo replicas by a numerical method that reproduces important properties of CT14 Hessian PDFs: the asymmetry of CT14 uncertainties and positivity of individual parton distributions. The ensembles of CT14 Monte-Carlo replicas constructed this way at NNLO and NLO are suitable for various collider applications, such as cross section reweighting. Master formulas for computation of asymmetric standard deviations in the Monte-Carlo representation are derived. A correction is proposed to address a bias in asymmetric uncertainties introduced by the Taylor series approximation. A numerical program is made available for conversion of Hessian PDFs into Monte-Carlo replicas according to normal, log-normal, and Watt-Thorne sampling procedures.
Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers
Beskos, Alexandros; Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody; Tempone, Raul; Zhou, Yan
2016-01-01
In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . âˆž>h0>h1â‹¯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. Â© 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers
Beskos, Alexandros
2016-08-29
In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . âˆž>h0>h1â‹¯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. Â© 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Monte Carlo applications to radiation shielding problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Subbaiah, K.V.
2009-01-01
transport in complex geometries is straightforward, while even the simplest finite geometries (e.g., thin foils) are very difficult to be dealt with by the transport equation. The main drawback of the Monte Carlo method lies in its random nature: all the results are affected by statistical uncertainties, which can be reduced at the expense of increasing the sampled population, and, hence, the computation time. Under special circumstances, the statistical uncertainties may be lowered by using variance-reduction techniques. Monte Carlo methods tend to be used when it is infeasible or impossible to compute an exact result with a deterministic algorithm. The term Monte Carlo was coined in the 1940s by physicists working on nuclear weapon projects in the Los Alamos National Laboratory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiping Liu
2017-10-01
Full Text Available It is important to determine the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC for analyzing slope seepage and stability under the conditions of rainfall. However, SWCCs exhibit high uncertainty because of complex influencing factors, which has not been previously considered in slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall. This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of the SWCC and its effects on the seepage and stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope under conditions of rainfall. The SWCC model parameters were treated as random variables. An uncertainty evaluation of the parameters was conducted based on the Bayesian approach and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. Observed data from granite residual soil were used to test the uncertainty of the SWCC. Then, different confidence intervals for the model parameters of the SWCC were constructed. The slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall with the SWCC of different confidence intervals was investigated using finite element software (SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. The results demonstrated that SWCC uncertainty had significant effects on slope seepage and stability. In general, the larger the percentile value, the greater the reduction of negative pore-water pressure in the soil layer and the lower the safety factor of the slope. Uncertainties in the model parameters of the SWCC can lead to obvious errors in predicted pore-water pressure profiles and the estimated safety factor of the slope under conditions of rainfall.
Monte Carlo techniques for analyzing deep-penetration problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cramer, S.N.; Gonnord, J.; Hendricks, J.S.
1986-01-01
Current methods and difficulties in Monte Carlo deep-penetration calculations are reviewed, including statistical uncertainty and recent adjoint optimization of splitting, Russian roulette, and exponential transformation biasing. Other aspects of the random walk and estimation processes are covered, including the relatively new DXANG angular biasing technique. Specific items summarized are albedo scattering, Monte Carlo coupling techniques with discrete ordinates and other methods, adjoint solutions, and multigroup Monte Carlo. The topic of code-generated biasing parameters is presented, including the creation of adjoint importance functions from forward calculations. Finally, current and future work in the area of computer learning and artificial intelligence is discussed in connection with Monte Carlo applications
Strategije drevesnega preiskovanja Monte Carlo
VODOPIVEC, TOM
2018-01-01
Po preboju pri igri go so metode drevesnega preiskovanja Monte Carlo (ang. Monte Carlo tree search – MCTS) sprožile bliskovit napredek agentov za igranje iger: raziskovalna skupnost je od takrat razvila veliko variant in izboljšav algoritma MCTS ter s tem zagotovila napredek umetne inteligence ne samo pri igrah, ampak tudi v številnih drugih domenah. Čeprav metode MCTS združujejo splošnost naključnega vzorčenja z natančnostjo drevesnega preiskovanja, imajo lahko v praksi težave s počasno konv...
Current and future applications of Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zaidi, H.
2003-01-01
Full text: The use of radionuclides in medicine has a long history and encompasses a large area of applications including diagnosis and radiation treatment of cancer patients using either external or radionuclide radiotherapy. The 'Monte Carlo method'describes a very broad area of science, in which many processes, physical systems, and phenomena are simulated by statistical methods employing random numbers. The general idea of Monte Carlo analysis is to create a model, which is as similar as possible to the real physical system of interest, and to create interactions within that system based on known probabilities of occurrence, with random sampling of the probability density functions (pdfs). As the number of individual events (called 'histories') is increased, the quality of the reported average behavior of the system improves, meaning that the statistical uncertainty decreases. The use of the Monte Carlo method to simulate radiation transport has become the most accurate means of predicting absorbed dose distributions and other quantities of interest in the radiation treatment of cancer patients using either external or radionuclide radiotherapy. The same trend has occurred for the estimation of the absorbed dose in diagnostic procedures using radionuclides as well as the assessment of image quality and quantitative accuracy of radionuclide imaging. As a consequence of this generalized use, many questions are being raised primarily about the need and potential of Monte Carlo techniques, but also about how accurate it really is, what would it take to apply it clinically and make it available widely to the nuclear medicine community at large. Many of these questions will be answered when Monte Carlo techniques are implemented and used for more routine calculations and for in-depth investigations. In this paper, the conceptual role of the Monte Carlo method is briefly introduced and followed by a survey of its different applications in diagnostic and therapeutic
Variational Monte Carlo Technique
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
ias
on the development of nuclear weapons in Los Alamos ..... cantly improved the paper. ... Carlo simulations of solids, Reviews of Modern Physics, Vol.73, pp.33– ... The computer algorithms are usually based on a random seed that starts the ...
Is Monte Carlo embarrassingly parallel?
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoogenboom, J. E. [Delft Univ. of Technology, Mekelweg 15, 2629 JB Delft (Netherlands); Delft Nuclear Consultancy, IJsselzoom 2, 2902 LB Capelle aan den IJssel (Netherlands)
2012-07-01
Monte Carlo is often stated as being embarrassingly parallel. However, running a Monte Carlo calculation, especially a reactor criticality calculation, in parallel using tens of processors shows a serious limitation in speedup and the execution time may even increase beyond a certain number of processors. In this paper the main causes of the loss of efficiency when using many processors are analyzed using a simple Monte Carlo program for criticality. The basic mechanism for parallel execution is MPI. One of the bottlenecks turn out to be the rendez-vous points in the parallel calculation used for synchronization and exchange of data between processors. This happens at least at the end of each cycle for fission source generation in order to collect the full fission source distribution for the next cycle and to estimate the effective multiplication factor, which is not only part of the requested results, but also input to the next cycle for population control. Basic improvements to overcome this limitation are suggested and tested. Also other time losses in the parallel calculation are identified. Moreover, the threading mechanism, which allows the parallel execution of tasks based on shared memory using OpenMP, is analyzed in detail. Recommendations are given to get the maximum efficiency out of a parallel Monte Carlo calculation. (authors)
Is Monte Carlo embarrassingly parallel?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoogenboom, J. E.
2012-01-01
Monte Carlo is often stated as being embarrassingly parallel. However, running a Monte Carlo calculation, especially a reactor criticality calculation, in parallel using tens of processors shows a serious limitation in speedup and the execution time may even increase beyond a certain number of processors. In this paper the main causes of the loss of efficiency when using many processors are analyzed using a simple Monte Carlo program for criticality. The basic mechanism for parallel execution is MPI. One of the bottlenecks turn out to be the rendez-vous points in the parallel calculation used for synchronization and exchange of data between processors. This happens at least at the end of each cycle for fission source generation in order to collect the full fission source distribution for the next cycle and to estimate the effective multiplication factor, which is not only part of the requested results, but also input to the next cycle for population control. Basic improvements to overcome this limitation are suggested and tested. Also other time losses in the parallel calculation are identified. Moreover, the threading mechanism, which allows the parallel execution of tasks based on shared memory using OpenMP, is analyzed in detail. Recommendations are given to get the maximum efficiency out of a parallel Monte Carlo calculation. (authors)
Exact Monte Carlo for molecules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lester, W.A. Jr.; Reynolds, P.J.
1985-03-01
A brief summary of the fixed-node quantum Monte Carlo method is presented. Results obtained for binding energies, the classical barrier height for H + H 2 , and the singlet-triplet splitting in methylene are presented and discussed. 17 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ceria, Paul; Ducourtieux, Sebastien; Boukellal, Younes; Feltin, Nicolas; Allard, Alexandre; Fischer, Nicolas
2017-01-01
In order to evaluate the uncertainty budget of the LNE’s mAFM, a reference instrument dedicated to the calibration of nanoscale dimensional standards, a numerical model has been developed to evaluate the measurement uncertainty of the metrology loop involved in the XYZ positioning of the tip relative to the sample. The objective of this model is to overcome difficulties experienced when trying to evaluate some uncertainty components which cannot be experimentally determined and more specifically, the one linked to the geometry of the metrology loop. The model is based on object-oriented programming and developed under Matlab. It integrates one hundred parameters that allow the control of the geometry of the metrology loop without using analytical formulae. The created objects, mainly the reference and the mobile prism and their mirrors, the interferometers and their laser beams, can be moved and deformed freely to take into account several error sources. The Monte Carlo method is then used to determine the positioning uncertainty of the instrument by randomly drawing the parameters according to their associated tolerances and their probability density functions (PDFs). The whole process follows Supplement 2 to ‘The Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty in Measurement’ (GUM). Some advanced statistical tools like Morris design and Sobol indices are also used to provide a sensitivity analysis by identifying the most influential parameters and quantifying their contribution to the XYZ positioning uncertainty. The approach validated in the paper shows that the actual positioning uncertainty is about 6 nm. As the final objective is to reach 1 nm, we engage in a discussion to estimate the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty. (paper)
Ceria, Paul; Ducourtieux, Sebastien; Boukellal, Younes; Allard, Alexandre; Fischer, Nicolas; Feltin, Nicolas
2017-03-01
In order to evaluate the uncertainty budget of the LNE’s mAFM, a reference instrument dedicated to the calibration of nanoscale dimensional standards, a numerical model has been developed to evaluate the measurement uncertainty of the metrology loop involved in the XYZ positioning of the tip relative to the sample. The objective of this model is to overcome difficulties experienced when trying to evaluate some uncertainty components which cannot be experimentally determined and more specifically, the one linked to the geometry of the metrology loop. The model is based on object-oriented programming and developed under Matlab. It integrates one hundred parameters that allow the control of the geometry of the metrology loop without using analytical formulae. The created objects, mainly the reference and the mobile prism and their mirrors, the interferometers and their laser beams, can be moved and deformed freely to take into account several error sources. The Monte Carlo method is then used to determine the positioning uncertainty of the instrument by randomly drawing the parameters according to their associated tolerances and their probability density functions (PDFs). The whole process follows Supplement 2 to ‘The Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty in Measurement’ (GUM). Some advanced statistical tools like Morris design and Sobol indices are also used to provide a sensitivity analysis by identifying the most influential parameters and quantifying their contribution to the XYZ positioning uncertainty. The approach validated in the paper shows that the actual positioning uncertainty is about 6 nm. As the final objective is to reach 1 nm, we engage in a discussion to estimate the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty.
Monte Carlo - Advances and Challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, Forrest B.; Mosteller, Russell D.; Martin, William R.
2008-01-01
Abstract only, full text follows: With ever-faster computers and mature Monte Carlo production codes, there has been tremendous growth in the application of Monte Carlo methods to the analysis of reactor physics and reactor systems. In the past, Monte Carlo methods were used primarily for calculating k eff of a critical system. More recently, Monte Carlo methods have been increasingly used for determining reactor power distributions and many design parameters, such as β eff , l eff , τ, reactivity coefficients, Doppler defect, dominance ratio, etc. These advanced applications of Monte Carlo methods are now becoming common, not just feasible, but bring new challenges to both developers and users: Convergence of 3D power distributions must be assured; confidence interval bias must be eliminated; iterated fission probabilities are required, rather than single-generation probabilities; temperature effects including Doppler and feedback must be represented; isotopic depletion and fission product buildup must be modeled. This workshop focuses on recent advances in Monte Carlo methods and their application to reactor physics problems, and on the resulting challenges faced by code developers and users. The workshop is partly tutorial, partly a review of the current state-of-the-art, and partly a discussion of future work that is needed. It should benefit both novice and expert Monte Carlo developers and users. In each of the topic areas, we provide an overview of needs, perspective on past and current methods, a review of recent work, and discussion of further research and capabilities that are required. Electronic copies of all workshop presentations and material will be available. The workshop is structured as 2 morning and 2 afternoon segments: - Criticality Calculations I - convergence diagnostics, acceleration methods, confidence intervals, and the iterated fission probability, - Criticality Calculations II - reactor kinetics parameters, dominance ratio, temperature
Studies of Monte Carlo Modelling of Jets at ATLAS
Kar, Deepak; The ATLAS collaboration
2017-01-01
The predictions of different Monte Carlo generators for QCD jet production, both in multijets and for jets produced in association with other objects, are presented. Recent improvements in showering Monte Carlos provide new tools for assessing systematic uncertainties associated with these jets. Studies of the dependence of physical observables on the choice of shower tune parameters and new prescriptions for assessing systematic uncertainties associated with the choice of shower model and tune are presented.
(U) Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hungerford, Aimee L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-03-20
Monte Carlo methods are very valuable for representing solutions to particle transport problems. Here we describe a “cook book” approach to handling the terms in a transport equation using Monte Carlo methods. Focus is on the mechanics of a numerical Monte Carlo code, rather than the mathematical foundations of the method.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: abianco@ird.gov.b [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. Nacional de Metrologia das Radiacoes Ionizantes (LNMRI)
2009-07-01
To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software
Coevolution Based Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization (CEAMCL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luo Ronghua
2008-11-01
Full Text Available An adaptive Monte Carlo localization algorithm based on coevolution mechanism of ecological species is proposed. Samples are clustered into species, each of which represents a hypothesis of the robot's pose. Since the coevolution between the species ensures that the multiple distinct hypotheses can be tracked stably, the problem of premature convergence when using MCL in highly symmetric environments can be solved. And the sample size can be adjusted adaptively over time according to the uncertainty of the robot's pose by using the population growth model. In addition, by using the crossover and mutation operators in evolutionary computation, intra-species evolution can drive the samples move towards the regions where the desired posterior density is large. So a small size of samples can represent the desired density well enough to make precise localization. The new algorithm is termed coevolution based adaptive Monte Carlo localization (CEAMCL. Experiments have been carried out to prove the efficiency of the new localization algorithm.
Monte Carlo Simulation for Particle Detectors
Pia, Maria Grazia
2012-01-01
Monte Carlo simulation is an essential component of experimental particle physics in all the phases of its life-cycle: the investigation of the physics reach of detector concepts, the design of facilities and detectors, the development and optimization of data reconstruction software, the data analysis for the production of physics results. This note briefly outlines some research topics related to Monte Carlo simulation, that are relevant to future experimental perspectives in particle physics. The focus is on physics aspects: conceptual progress beyond current particle transport schemes, the incorporation of materials science knowledge relevant to novel detection technologies, functionality to model radiation damage, the capability for multi-scale simulation, quantitative validation and uncertainty quantification to determine the predictive power of simulation. The R&D on simulation for future detectors would profit from cooperation within various components of the particle physics community, and synerg...
Isotopic depletion with Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin, W.R.; Rathkopf, J.A.
1996-06-01
This work considers a method to deplete isotopes during a time- dependent Monte Carlo simulation of an evolving system. The method is based on explicitly combining a conventional estimator for the scalar flux with the analytical solutions to the isotopic depletion equations. There are no auxiliary calculations; the method is an integral part of the Monte Carlo calculation. The method eliminates negative densities and reduces the variance in the estimates for the isotope densities, compared to existing methods. Moreover, existing methods are shown to be special cases of the general method described in this work, as they can be derived by combining a high variance estimator for the scalar flux with a low-order approximation to the analytical solution to the depletion equation
Zimmerman, George B.
Monte Carlo methods appropriate to simulate the transport of x-rays, neutrons, ions and electrons in Inertial Confinement Fusion targets are described and analyzed. The Implicit Monte Carlo method of x-ray transport handles symmetry within indirect drive ICF hohlraums well, but can be improved 50X in efficiency by angular biasing the x-rays towards the fuel capsule. Accurate simulation of thermonuclear burn and burn diagnostics involves detailed particle source spectra, charged particle ranges, inflight reaction kinematics, corrections for bulk and thermal Doppler effects and variance reduction to obtain adequate statistics for rare events. It is found that the effects of angular Coulomb scattering must be included in models of charged particle transport through heterogeneous materials.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zimmerman, G.B.
1997-01-01
Monte Carlo methods appropriate to simulate the transport of x-rays, neutrons, ions and electrons in Inertial Confinement Fusion targets are described and analyzed. The Implicit Monte Carlo method of x-ray transport handles symmetry within indirect drive ICF hohlraums well, but can be improved 50X in efficiency by angular biasing the x-rays towards the fuel capsule. Accurate simulation of thermonuclear burn and burn diagnostics involves detailed particle source spectra, charged particle ranges, inflight reaction kinematics, corrections for bulk and thermal Doppler effects and variance reduction to obtain adequate statistics for rare events. It is found that the effects of angular Coulomb scattering must be included in models of charged particle transport through heterogeneous materials. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zimmerman, George B.
1997-01-01
Monte Carlo methods appropriate to simulate the transport of x-rays, neutrons, ions and electrons in Inertial Confinement Fusion targets are described and analyzed. The Implicit Monte Carlo method of x-ray transport handles symmetry within indirect drive ICF hohlraums well, but can be improved 50X in efficiency by angular biasing the x-rays towards the fuel capsule. Accurate simulation of thermonuclear burn and burn diagnostics involves detailed particle source spectra, charged particle ranges, inflight reaction kinematics, corrections for bulk and thermal Doppler effects and variance reduction to obtain adequate statistics for rare events. It is found that the effects of angular Coulomb scattering must be included in models of charged particle transport through heterogeneous materials
Shell model Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koonin, S.E.; Dean, D.J.; Langanke, K.
1997-01-01
We review quantum Monte Carlo methods for dealing with large shell model problems. These methods reduce the imaginary-time many-body evolution operator to a coherent superposition of one-body evolutions in fluctuating one-body fields; the resultant path integral is evaluated stochastically. We first discuss the motivation, formalism, and implementation of such Shell Model Monte Carlo (SMMC) methods. There then follows a sampler of results and insights obtained from a number of applications. These include the ground state and thermal properties of pf-shell nuclei, the thermal and rotational behavior of rare-earth and γ-soft nuclei, and the calculation of double beta-decay matrix elements. Finally, prospects for further progress in such calculations are discussed. (orig.)
A contribution Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aboughantous, C.H.
1994-01-01
A Contribution Monte Carlo method is developed and successfully applied to a sample deep-penetration shielding problem. The random walk is simulated in most of its parts as in conventional Monte Carlo methods. The probability density functions (pdf's) are expressed in terms of spherical harmonics and are continuous functions in direction cosine and azimuthal angle variables as well as in position coordinates; the energy is discretized in the multigroup approximation. The transport pdf is an unusual exponential kernel strongly dependent on the incident and emergent directions and energies and on the position of the collision site. The method produces the same results obtained with the deterministic method with a very small standard deviation, with as little as 1,000 Contribution particles in both analog and nonabsorption biasing modes and with only a few minutes CPU time
Shell model Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koonin, S.E.
1996-01-01
We review quantum Monte Carlo methods for dealing with large shell model problems. These methods reduce the imaginary-time many-body evolution operator to a coherent superposition of one-body evolutions in fluctuating one-body fields; resultant path integral is evaluated stochastically. We first discuss the motivation, formalism, and implementation of such Shell Model Monte Carlo methods. There then follows a sampler of results and insights obtained from a number of applications. These include the ground state and thermal properties of pf-shell nuclei, thermal behavior of γ-soft nuclei, and calculation of double beta-decay matrix elements. Finally, prospects for further progress in such calculations are discussed. 87 refs
Nadar, M Y; Akar, D K; Rao, D D; Kulkarni, M S; Pradeepkumar, K S
2015-12-01
Assessment of intake due to long-lived actinides by inhalation pathway is carried out by lung monitoring of the radiation workers inside totally shielded steel room using sensitive detection systems such as Phoswich and an array of HPGe detectors. In this paper, uncertainties in the lung activity estimation due to positional errors, chest wall thickness (CWT) and detector background variation are evaluated. First, calibration factors (CFs) of Phoswich and an array of three HPGe detectors are estimated by incorporating ICRP male thorax voxel phantom and detectors in Monte Carlo code 'FLUKA'. CFs are estimated for the uniform source distribution in lungs of the phantom for various photon energies. The variation in the CFs for positional errors of ±0.5, 1 and 1.5 cm in horizontal and vertical direction along the chest are studied. The positional errors are also evaluated by resizing the voxel phantom. Combined uncertainties are estimated at different energies using the uncertainties due to CWT, detector positioning, detector background variation of an uncontaminated adult person and counting statistics in the form of scattering factors (SFs). SFs are found to decrease with increase in energy. With HPGe array, highest SF of 1.84 is found at 18 keV. It reduces to 1.36 at 238 keV. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Parallel Monte Carlo reactor neutronics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blomquist, R.N.; Brown, F.B.
1994-01-01
The issues affecting implementation of parallel algorithms for large-scale engineering Monte Carlo neutron transport simulations are discussed. For nuclear reactor calculations, these include load balancing, recoding effort, reproducibility, domain decomposition techniques, I/O minimization, and strategies for different parallel architectures. Two codes were parallelized and tested for performance. The architectures employed include SIMD, MIMD-distributed memory, and workstation network with uneven interactive load. Speedups linear with the number of nodes were achieved
Elements of Monte Carlo techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagarajan, P.S.
2000-01-01
The Monte Carlo method is essentially mimicking the real world physical processes at the microscopic level. With the incredible increase in computing speeds and ever decreasing computing costs, there is widespread use of the method for practical problems. The method is used in calculating algorithm-generated sequences known as pseudo random sequence (prs)., probability density function (pdf), test for randomness, extension to multidimensional integration etc
Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo Simulation
Hoel, H
2011-08-23
This work generalizes a multilevel forward Euler Monte Carlo method introduced in Michael B. Giles. (Michael Giles. Oper. Res. 56(3):607–617, 2008.) for the approximation of expected values depending on the solution to an Itô stochastic differential equation. The work (Michael Giles. Oper. Res. 56(3):607– 617, 2008.) proposed and analyzed a forward Euler multilevelMonte Carlo method based on a hierarchy of uniform time discretizations and control variates to reduce the computational effort required by a standard, single level, Forward Euler Monte Carlo method. This work introduces an adaptive hierarchy of non uniform time discretizations, generated by an adaptive algorithmintroduced in (AnnaDzougoutov et al. Raùl Tempone. Adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms for stopped diffusion. In Multiscale methods in science and engineering, volume 44 of Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. Eng., pages 59–88. Springer, Berlin, 2005; Kyoung-Sook Moon et al. Stoch. Anal. Appl. 23(3):511–558, 2005; Kyoung-Sook Moon et al. An adaptive algorithm for ordinary, stochastic and partial differential equations. In Recent advances in adaptive computation, volume 383 of Contemp. Math., pages 325–343. Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 2005.). This form of the adaptive algorithm generates stochastic, path dependent, time steps and is based on a posteriori error expansions first developed in (Anders Szepessy et al. Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 54(10):1169– 1214, 2001). Our numerical results for a stopped diffusion problem, exhibit savings in the computational cost to achieve an accuracy of ϑ(TOL),from(TOL−3), from using a single level version of the adaptive algorithm to ϑ(((TOL−1)log(TOL))2).
Geometrical splitting in Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dubi, A.; Elperin, T.; Dudziak, D.J.
1982-01-01
A statistical model is presented by which a direct statistical approach yielded an analytic expression for the second moment, the variance ratio, and the benefit function in a model of an n surface-splitting Monte Carlo game. In addition to the insight into the dependence of the second moment on the splitting parameters the main importance of the expressions developed lies in their potential to become a basis for in-code optimization of splitting through a general algorithm. Refs
Extending canonical Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Velazquez, L; Curilef, S
2010-01-01
In this paper, we discuss the implications of a recently obtained equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation for the extension of the available Monte Carlo methods on the basis of the consideration of the Gibbs canonical ensemble to account for the existence of an anomalous regime with negative heat capacities C α with α≈0.2 for the particular case of the 2D ten-state Potts model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mercier, B.
1985-04-01
We have shown that the transport equation can be solved with particles, like the Monte-Carlo method, but without random numbers. In the Monte-Carlo method, particles are created from the source, and are followed from collision to collision until either they are absorbed or they leave the spatial domain. In our method, particles are created from the original source, with a variable weight taking into account both collision and absorption. These particles are followed until they leave the spatial domain, and we use them to determine a first collision source. Another set of particles is then created from this first collision source, and tracked to determine a second collision source, and so on. This process introduces an approximation which does not exist in the Monte-Carlo method. However, we have analyzed the effect of this approximation, and shown that it can be limited. Our method is deterministic, gives reproducible results. Furthermore, when extra accuracy is needed in some region, it is easier to get more particles to go there. It has the same kind of applications: rather problems where streaming is dominant than collision dominated problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kennedy, D.C. II.
1987-01-01
This is an update on the progress of the BREMMUS Monte Carlo simulator, particularly in its current incarnation, BREM5. The present report is intended only as a follow-up to the Mark II/Granlibakken proceedings, and those proceedings should be consulted for a complete description of the capabilities and goals of the BREMMUS program. The new BREM5 program improves on the previous version of BREMMUS, BREM2, in a number of important ways. In BREM2, the internal loop (oblique) corrections were not treated in consistent fashion, a deficiency that led to renormalization scheme-dependence; i.e., physical results, such as cross sections, were dependent on the method used to eliminate infinities from the theory. Of course, this problem cannot be tolerated in a Monte Carlo designed for experimental use. BREM5 incorporates a new way of treating the oblique corrections, as explained in the Granlibakken proceedings, that guarantees renormalization scheme-independence and dramatically simplifies the organization and calculation of radiative corrections. This technique is to be presented in full detail in a forthcoming paper. BREM5 is, at this point, the only Monte Carlo to contain the entire set of one-loop corrections to electroweak four-fermion processes and renormalization scheme-independence. 3 figures
Statistical implications in Monte Carlo depletions - 051
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhiwen, Xu; Rhodes, J.; Smith, K.
2010-01-01
As a result of steady advances of computer power, continuous-energy Monte Carlo depletion analysis is attracting considerable attention for reactor burnup calculations. The typical Monte Carlo analysis is set up as a combination of a Monte Carlo neutron transport solver and a fuel burnup solver. Note that the burnup solver is a deterministic module. The statistical errors in Monte Carlo solutions are introduced into nuclide number densities and propagated along fuel burnup. This paper is towards the understanding of the statistical implications in Monte Carlo depletions, including both statistical bias and statistical variations in depleted fuel number densities. The deterministic Studsvik lattice physics code, CASMO-5, is modified to model the Monte Carlo depletion. The statistical bias in depleted number densities is found to be negligible compared to its statistical variations, which, in turn, demonstrates the correctness of the Monte Carlo depletion method. Meanwhile, the statistical variation in number densities generally increases with burnup. Several possible ways of reducing the statistical errors are discussed: 1) to increase the number of individual Monte Carlo histories; 2) to increase the number of time steps; 3) to run additional independent Monte Carlo depletion cases. Finally, a new Monte Carlo depletion methodology, called the batch depletion method, is proposed, which consists of performing a set of independent Monte Carlo depletions and is thus capable of estimating the overall statistical errors including both the local statistical error and the propagated statistical error. (authors)
Research on perturbation based Monte Carlo reactor criticality search
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Zeguang; Wang Kan; Li Yangliu; Deng Jingkang
2013-01-01
Criticality search is a very important aspect in reactor physics analysis. Due to the advantages of Monte Carlo method and the development of computer technologies, Monte Carlo criticality search is becoming more and more necessary and feasible. Traditional Monte Carlo criticality search method is suffered from large amount of individual criticality runs and uncertainty and fluctuation of Monte Carlo results. A new Monte Carlo criticality search method based on perturbation calculation is put forward in this paper to overcome the disadvantages of traditional method. By using only one criticality run to get initial k_e_f_f and differential coefficients of concerned parameter, the polynomial estimator of k_e_f_f changing function is solved to get the critical value of concerned parameter. The feasibility of this method was tested. The results show that the accuracy and efficiency of perturbation based criticality search method are quite inspiring and the method overcomes the disadvantages of traditional one. (authors)
Statistics of Monte Carlo methods used in radiation transport calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Datta, D.
2009-01-01
Radiation transport calculation can be carried out by using either deterministic or statistical methods. Radiation transport calculation based on statistical methods is basic theme of the Monte Carlo methods. The aim of this lecture is to describe the fundamental statistics required to build the foundations of Monte Carlo technique for radiation transport calculation. Lecture note is organized in the following way. Section (1) will describe the introduction of Basic Monte Carlo and its classification towards the respective field. Section (2) will describe the random sampling methods, a key component of Monte Carlo radiation transport calculation, Section (3) will provide the statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo estimates, Section (4) will describe in brief the importance of variance reduction techniques while sampling particles such as photon, or neutron in the process of radiation transport
Monte Carlo simulation of experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Opat, G.I.
1977-07-01
An outline of the technique of computer simulation of particle physics experiments by the Monte Carlo method is presented. Useful special purpose subprograms are listed and described. At each stage the discussion is made concrete by direct reference to the programs SIMUL8 and its variant MONTE-PION, written to assist in the analysis of the radiative decay experiments μ + → e + ν sub(e) antiνγ and π + → e + ν sub(e)γ, respectively. These experiments were based on the use of two large sodium iodide crystals, TINA and MINA, as e and γ detectors. Instructions for the use of SIMUL8 and MONTE-PION are given. (author)
Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward
2013-09-01
Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.
Coquelin, L.; Le Brusquet, L.; Fischer, N.; Gensdarmes, F.; Motzkus, C.; Mace, T.; Fleury, G.
2018-05-01
A scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) is a high resolution nanoparticle sizing system that is widely used as the standard method to measure airborne particle size distributions (PSD) in the size range 1 nm–1 μm. This paper addresses the problem to assess the uncertainty associated with PSD when a differential mobility analyzer (DMA) operates under scanning mode. The sources of uncertainty are described and then modeled either through experiments or knowledge extracted from the literature. Special care is brought to model the physics and to account for competing theories. Indeed, it appears that the modeling errors resulting from approximations of the physics can largely affect the final estimate of this indirect measurement, especially for quantities that are not measured during day-to-day experiments. The Monte Carlo method is used to compute the uncertainty associated with PSD. The method is tested against real data sets that are monosize polystyrene latex spheres (PSL) with nominal diameters of 100 nm, 200 nm and 450 nm. The median diameters and associated standard uncertainty of the aerosol particles are estimated as 101.22 nm ± 0.18 nm, 204.39 nm ± 1.71 nm and 443.87 nm ± 1.52 nm with the new approach. Other statistical parameters, such as the mean diameter, the mode and the geometric mean and associated standard uncertainty, are also computed. These results are then compared with the results obtained by SMPS embedded software.
Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Lindsay, Mark; Ogarko, Vitaliy; Giraud, Jeremie; Jessell, Mark
2018-04-01
Three-dimensional (3-D) geological structural modeling aims to determine geological information in a 3-D space using structural data (foliations and interfaces) and topological rules as inputs. This is necessary in any project in which the properties of the subsurface matters; they express our understanding of geometries in depth. For that reason, 3-D geological models have a wide range of practical applications including but not restricted to civil engineering, the oil and gas industry, the mining industry, and water management. These models, however, are fraught with uncertainties originating from the inherent flaws of the modeling engines (working hypotheses, interpolator's parameterization) and the inherent lack of knowledge in areas where there are no observations combined with input uncertainty (observational, conceptual and technical errors). Because 3-D geological models are often used for impactful decision-making it is critical that all 3-D geological models provide accurate estimates of uncertainty. This paper's focus is set on the effect of structural input data measurement uncertainty propagation in implicit 3-D geological modeling. This aim is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation (MCUE), a stochastic method which samples from predefined disturbance probability distributions that represent the uncertainty of the original input data set. MCUE is used to produce hundreds to thousands of altered unique data sets. The altered data sets are used as inputs to produce a range of plausible 3-D models. The plausible models are then combined into a single probabilistic model as a means to propagate uncertainty from the input data to the final model. In this paper, several improved methods for MCUE are proposed. The methods pertain to distribution selection for input uncertainty, sample analysis and statistical consistency of the sampled distribution. Pole vector sampling is proposed as a more rigorous alternative than dip vector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Renaud, M; Seuntjens, J; Roberge, D
2014-01-01
Purpose: Assessing the performance and uncertainty of a pre-calculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport running on graphics processing units (GPU). While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from recycling a limited number of tracks in the pre-generated track bank is missing from the literature. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal pre-generated track bank size can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pre-generated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4, respectively. The PMC algorithm for track transport was implemented on the CUDA programming framework. GPU-PMC dose distributions were compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated using general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty analysis was performed by comparing GPUPMC dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark while varying the track bank size and primary particle histories. Results: GPU-PMC dose distributions and benchmark doses were within 1% of each other in voxels with dose greater than 50% of Dmax. In proton calculations, a submillimeter distance-to-agreement error was observed at the Bragg Peak. Latent uncertainty followed a Poisson distribution with the number of tracks per energy (TPE) and a track bank of 20,000 TPE produced a latent uncertainty of approximately 1%. Efficiency analysis showed a 937× and 508× gain over a single processor core running DOSXYZnrc for 16 MeV electrons in water and bone, respectively. Conclusion: The GPU-PMC method can calculate dose distributions for electrons and protons to a statistical uncertainty below 1%. The track bank size necessary to achieve an optimal efficiency can be tuned based on the desired uncertainty. Coupled with a model to calculate dose contributions from uncharged particles, GPU-PMC is a candidate for inverse planning of modulated electron radiotherapy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Pakyuz-Charrier
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Three-dimensional (3-D geological structural modeling aims to determine geological information in a 3-D space using structural data (foliations and interfaces and topological rules as inputs. This is necessary in any project in which the properties of the subsurface matters; they express our understanding of geometries in depth. For that reason, 3-D geological models have a wide range of practical applications including but not restricted to civil engineering, the oil and gas industry, the mining industry, and water management. These models, however, are fraught with uncertainties originating from the inherent flaws of the modeling engines (working hypotheses, interpolator's parameterization and the inherent lack of knowledge in areas where there are no observations combined with input uncertainty (observational, conceptual and technical errors. Because 3-D geological models are often used for impactful decision-making it is critical that all 3-D geological models provide accurate estimates of uncertainty. This paper's focus is set on the effect of structural input data measurement uncertainty propagation in implicit 3-D geological modeling. This aim is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty estimation (MCUE, a stochastic method which samples from predefined disturbance probability distributions that represent the uncertainty of the original input data set. MCUE is used to produce hundreds to thousands of altered unique data sets. The altered data sets are used as inputs to produce a range of plausible 3-D models. The plausible models are then combined into a single probabilistic model as a means to propagate uncertainty from the input data to the final model. In this paper, several improved methods for MCUE are proposed. The methods pertain to distribution selection for input uncertainty, sample analysis and statistical consistency of the sampled distribution. Pole vector sampling is proposed as a more rigorous alternative than
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amin Asadi
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Purpose: To study the benefits of Directional Bremsstrahlung Splitting (DBS dose variance reduction technique in BEAMnrc Monte Carlo (MC code for Oncor® linac at 6MV and 18MV energies. Materials and Method: A MC model of Oncor® linac was built using BEAMnrc MC Code and verified by the measured data for 6MV and 18MV energies of various field sizes. Then Oncor® machine was modeled running DBS technique, and the efficiency of total fluence and spatial fluence for electron and photon, the efficiency of dose variance reduction of MC calculations for PDD on the central beam axis and lateral dose profile across the nominal field was measured and compared. Result: With applying DBS technique, the total fluence of electron and photon increased in turn 626.8 (6MV and 983.4 (6MV, and 285.6 (18MV and 737.8 (18MV, the spatial fluence of electron and photon improved in turn 308.6±1.35% (6MV and 480.38±0.43% (6MV, and 153±0.9% (18MV and 462.6±0.27% (18MV. Moreover, by running DBS technique, the efficiency of dose variance reduction for PDD MC dose calculations before maximum dose point and after dose maximum point enhanced 187.8±0.68% (6MV and 184.6±0.65% (6MV, 156±0.43% (18MV and 153±0.37% (18MV, respectively, and the efficiency of MC calculations for lateral dose profile remarkably on the central beam axis and across the treatment field raised in turn 197±0.66% (6MV and 214.6±0.73% (6MV, 175±0.36% (18MV and 181.4±0.45% (18MV. Conclusion: Applying dose variance reduction technique of DBS for modeling Oncor® linac with using BEAMnrc MC Code surprisingly improved the fluence of electron and photon, and it therefore enhanced the efficiency of dose variance reduction for MC calculations. As a result, running DBS in different kinds of MC simulation Codes might be beneficent in reducing the uncertainty of MC calculations.
Monte Carlo Particle Lists: MCPL
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kittelmann, Thomas; Klinkby, Esben Bryndt; Bergbäck Knudsen, Erik
2017-01-01
A binary format with lists of particle state information, for interchanging particles between various Monte Carlo simulation applications, is presented. Portable C code for file manipulation is made available to the scientific community, along with converters and plugins for several popular...... simulation packages. Program summary: Program Title: MCPL. Program Files doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/cby92vsv5g.1 Licensing provisions: CC0 for core MCPL, see LICENSE file for details. Programming language: C and C++ External routines/libraries: Geant4, MCNP, McStas, McXtrace Nature of problem: Saving...
Mondal, A.; Efendiev, Y.; Mallick, B.; Datta-Gupta, A.
2010-01-01
. Within each channel, the permeability is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. Uncertainty quantification in history matching is carried out hierarchically by constructing geologic facies boundaries as well as permeability fields within each facies
Monte Carlo techniques in radiation therapy
Verhaegen, Frank
2013-01-01
Modern cancer treatment relies on Monte Carlo simulations to help radiotherapists and clinical physicists better understand and compute radiation dose from imaging devices as well as exploit four-dimensional imaging data. With Monte Carlo-based treatment planning tools now available from commercial vendors, a complete transition to Monte Carlo-based dose calculation methods in radiotherapy could likely take place in the next decade. Monte Carlo Techniques in Radiation Therapy explores the use of Monte Carlo methods for modeling various features of internal and external radiation sources, including light ion beams. The book-the first of its kind-addresses applications of the Monte Carlo particle transport simulation technique in radiation therapy, mainly focusing on external beam radiotherapy and brachytherapy. It presents the mathematical and technical aspects of the methods in particle transport simulations. The book also discusses the modeling of medical linacs and other irradiation devices; issues specific...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Labarile, A.; Barrachina, T.; Miró, R.; Verdú, G., E-mail: alabarile@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: tbarrachina@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: rmiro@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety - ISIRYM, Valencia (Spain); Pereira, C., E-mail: claubia@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear
2017-07-01
The use of Best-Estimate computer codes is one of the greatest concerns in the nuclear industry especially for licensing analysis. Of paramount importance is the estimation of the uncertainties of the whole system to establish the safety margins based on highly reliable results. The estimation of these uncertainties should be performed by applying a methodology to propagate the uncertainties from the input parameters and the models implemented in the code to the output parameters. This study employs two different approaches for the Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the adjoint-based perturbation theory of TSUNAMI-3D, and the stochastic sampling technique of SAMPLER/KENO. The cases studied are two models of Light Water Reactors in the framework of the OECD/NEA UAM-LWR benchmark, a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) and a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Both of them at Hot Full Power (HFP) and Hot Zero Power (HZP) conditions, with and without control rod. This work presents the results of k{sub eff} from different simulation, and discuss the comparison of the two methods employed. In particular, a list of the major contributors to the uncertainty of k{sub eff} in terms of microscopic cross sections; their sensitivity coefficients; a comparison between the results of the two modules and with reference values; statistical information from the stochastic approach, and the probability and statistical confidence reached in the simulations. The reader will find all these information discussed in this paper. (author)
Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration
Del Moral, Pierre
2013-01-01
In the last three decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of interacting particle methods as a powerful tool in real-world applications of Monte Carlo simulation in computational physics, population biology, computer sciences, and statistical machine learning. Ideally suited to parallel and distributed computation, these advanced particle algorithms include nonlinear interacting jump diffusions; quantum, diffusion, and resampled Monte Carlo methods; Feynman-Kac particle models; genetic and evolutionary algorithms; sequential Monte Carlo methods; adaptive and interacting Marko
Monte Carlo surface flux tallies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Favorite, Jeffrey A.
2010-01-01
Particle fluxes on surfaces are difficult to calculate with Monte Carlo codes because the score requires a division by the surface-crossing angle cosine, and grazing angles lead to inaccuracies. We revisit the standard practice of dividing by half of a cosine 'cutoff' for particles whose surface-crossing cosines are below the cutoff. The theory behind this approximation is sound, but the application of the theory to all possible situations does not account for two implicit assumptions: (1) the grazing band must be symmetric about 0, and (2) a single linear expansion for the angular flux must be applied in the entire grazing band. These assumptions are violated in common circumstances; for example, for separate in-going and out-going flux tallies on internal surfaces, and for out-going flux tallies on external surfaces. In some situations, dividing by two-thirds of the cosine cutoff is more appropriate. If users were able to control both the cosine cutoff and the substitute value, they could use these parameters to make accurate surface flux tallies. The procedure is demonstrated in a test problem in which Monte Carlo surface fluxes in cosine bins are converted to angular fluxes and compared with the results of a discrete ordinates calculation.
Monte Carlo simulations of neutron scattering instruments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aestrand, Per-Olof; Copenhagen Univ.; Lefmann, K.; Nielsen, K.
2001-01-01
A Monte Carlo simulation is an important computational tool used in many areas of science and engineering. The use of Monte Carlo techniques for simulating neutron scattering instruments is discussed. The basic ideas, techniques and approximations are presented. Since the construction of a neutron scattering instrument is very expensive, Monte Carlo software used for design of instruments have to be validated and tested extensively. The McStas software was designed with these aspects in mind and some of the basic principles of the McStas software will be discussed. Finally, some future prospects are discussed for using Monte Carlo simulations in optimizing neutron scattering experiments. (R.P.)
On the use of stochastic approximation Monte Carlo for Monte Carlo integration
Liang, Faming
2009-01-01
The stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm has recently been proposed as a dynamic optimization algorithm in the literature. In this paper, we show in theory that the samples generated by SAMC can be used for Monte Carlo integration
Present status and future prospects of neutronics Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gelbard, E.M.
1990-01-01
It is fair to say that the Monte Carlo method, over the last decade, has grown steadily more important as a neutronics computational tool. Apparently this has happened for assorted reasons. Thus, for example, as the power of computers has increased, the cost of the method has dropped, steadily becoming less and less of an obstacle to its use. In addition, more and more sophisticated input processors have now made it feasible to model extremely complicated systems routinely with really remarkable fidelity. Finally, as we demand greater and greater precision in reactor calculations, Monte Carlo is often found to be the only method accurate enough for use in benchmarking. Cross section uncertainties are now almost the only inherent limitations in our Monte Carlo capabilities. For this reason Monte Carlo has come to occupy a special position, interposed between experiment and other computational techniques. More and more often deterministic methods are tested by comparison with Monte Carlo, and cross sections are tested by comparing Monte Carlo with experiment. In this way one can distinguish very clearly between errors due to flaws in our numerical methods, and those due to deficiencies in cross section files. The special role of Monte Carlo as a benchmarking tool, often the only available benchmarking tool, makes it crucially important that this method should be polished to perfection. Problems relating to Eigenvalue calculations, variance reduction and the use of advanced computers are reviewed in this paper. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard M. Palin
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Pseudosection modelling is rapidly becoming an essential part of a petrologist's toolkit and often forms the basis of interpreting the tectonothermal evolution of a rock sample, outcrop, or geological region. Of the several factors that can affect the accuracy and precision of such calculated phase diagrams, “geological” uncertainty related to natural petrographic variation at the hand sample- and/or thin section-scale is rarely considered. Such uncertainty influences the sample's bulk composition, which is the primary control on its equilibrium phase relationships and thus the interpreted pressure–temperature (P–T conditions of formation. Two case study examples—a garnet–cordierite granofels and a garnet–staurolite–kyanite schist—are used to compare the relative importance that geological uncertainty has on bulk compositions determined via (1 X-ray fluorescence (XRF or (2 point counting techniques. We show that only minor mineralogical variation at the thin-section scale propagates through the phase equilibria modelling procedure and affects the absolute P–T conditions at which key assemblages are stable. Absolute displacements of equilibria can approach ±1 kbar for only a moderate degree of modal proportion uncertainty, thus being essentially similar to the magnitudes reported for analytical uncertainties in conventional thermobarometry. Bulk compositions determined from multiple thin sections of a heterogeneous garnet–staurolite–kyanite schist show a wide range in major-element oxides, owing to notable variation in mineral proportions. Pseudosections constructed for individual point count-derived bulks accurately reproduce this variability on a case-by-case basis, though averaged proportions do not correlate with those calculated at equivalent peak P–T conditions for a whole-rock XRF-derived bulk composition. The main discrepancies relate to varying proportions of matrix phases (primarily mica relative to
Implications of Monte Carlo Statistical Errors in Criticality Safety Assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pevey, Ronald E.
2005-01-01
Most criticality safety calculations are performed using Monte Carlo techniques because of Monte Carlo's ability to handle complex three-dimensional geometries. For Monte Carlo calculations, the more histories sampled, the lower the standard deviation of the resulting estimates. The common intuition is, therefore, that the more histories, the better; as a result, analysts tend to run Monte Carlo analyses as long as possible (or at least to a minimum acceptable uncertainty). For Monte Carlo criticality safety analyses, however, the optimization situation is complicated by the fact that procedures usually require that an extra margin of safety be added because of the statistical uncertainty of the Monte Carlo calculations. This additional safety margin affects the impact of the choice of the calculational standard deviation, both on production and on safety. This paper shows that, under the assumptions of normally distributed benchmarking calculational errors and exact compliance with the upper subcritical limit (USL), the standard deviation that optimizes production is zero, but there is a non-zero value of the calculational standard deviation that minimizes the risk of inadvertently labeling a supercritical configuration as subcritical. Furthermore, this value is shown to be a simple function of the typical benchmarking step outcomes--the bias, the standard deviation of the bias, the upper subcritical limit, and the number of standard deviations added to calculated k-effectives before comparison to the USL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.
1995-01-01
This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions
Usefulness of the Monte Carlo method in reliability calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lanore, J.M.; Kalli, H.
1977-01-01
Three examples of reliability Monte Carlo programs developed in the LEP (Laboratory for Radiation Shielding Studies in the Nuclear Research Center at Saclay) are presented. First, an uncertainty analysis is given for a simplified spray system; a Monte Carlo program PATREC-MC has been written to solve the problem with the system components given in the fault tree representation. The second program MONARC 2 has been written to solve the problem of complex systems reliability by the Monte Carlo simulation, here again the system (a residual heat removal system) is in the fault tree representation. Third, the Monte Carlo program MONARC was used instead of the Markov diagram to solve the simulation problem of an electric power supply including two nets and two stand-by diesels
Monte Carlo techniques for analyzing deep penetration problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cramer, S.N.; Gonnord, J.; Hendricks, J.S.
1985-01-01
A review of current methods and difficulties in Monte Carlo deep-penetration calculations is presented. Statistical uncertainty is discussed, and recent adjoint optimization of splitting, Russian roulette, and exponential transformation biasing is reviewed. Other aspects of the random walk and estimation processes are covered, including the relatively new DXANG angular biasing technique. Specific items summarized are albedo scattering, Monte Carlo coupling techniques with discrete ordinates and other methods, adjoint solutions, and multi-group Monte Carlo. The topic of code-generated biasing parameters is presented, including the creation of adjoint importance functions from forward calculations. Finally, current and future work in the area of computer learning and artificial intelligence is discussed in connection with Monte Carlo applications
Monte Carlo techniques for analyzing deep penetration problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cramer, S.N.; Gonnord, J.; Hendricks, J.S.
1985-01-01
A review of current methods and difficulties in Monte Carlo deep-penetration calculations is presented. Statistical uncertainty is discussed, and recent adjoint optimization of splitting, Russian roulette, and exponential transformation biasing is reviewed. Other aspects of the random walk and estimation processes are covered, including the relatively new DXANG angular biasing technique. Specific items summarized are albedo scattering, Monte Carlo coupling techniques with discrete ordinates and other methods, adjoint solutions, and multi-group Monte Carlo. The topic of code-generated biasing parameters is presented, including the creation of adjoint importance functions from forward calculations. Finally, current and future work in the area of computer learning and artificial intelligence is discussed in connection with Monte Carlo applications. 29 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moore, J.G.
1974-01-01
The Monte Carlo code MONK is a general program written to provide a high degree of flexibility to the user. MONK is distinguished by its detailed representation of nuclear data in point form i.e., the cross-section is tabulated at specific energies instead of the more usual group representation. The nuclear data are unadjusted in the point form but recently the code has been modified to accept adjusted group data as used in fast and thermal reactor applications. The various geometrical handling capabilities and importance sampling techniques are described. In addition to the nuclear data aspects, the following features are also described; geometrical handling routines, tracking cycles, neutron source and output facilities. 12 references. (U.S.)
Monte Carlo lattice program KIM
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cupini, E.; De Matteis, A.; Simonini, R.
1980-01-01
The Monte Carlo program KIM solves the steady-state linear neutron transport equation for a fixed-source problem or, by successive fixed-source runs, for the eigenvalue problem, in a two-dimensional thermal reactor lattice. Fluxes and reaction rates are the main quantities computed by the program, from which power distribution and few-group averaged cross sections are derived. The simulation ranges from 10 MeV to zero and includes anisotropic and inelastic scattering in the fast energy region, the epithermal Doppler broadening of the resonances of some nuclides, and the thermalization phenomenon by taking into account the thermal velocity distribution of some molecules. Besides the well known combinatorial geometry, the program allows complex configurations to be represented by a discrete set of points, an approach greatly improving calculation speed
Advanced Computational Methods for Monte Carlo Calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Forrest B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2018-01-12
This course is intended for graduate students who already have a basic understanding of Monte Carlo methods. It focuses on advanced topics that may be needed for thesis research, for developing new state-of-the-art methods, or for working with modern production Monte Carlo codes.
Nested Sampling with Constrained Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Betancourt, M. J.
2010-01-01
Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is readily adapted to efficiently sample from any smooth, constrained distribution. Utilizing this constrained Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, I introduce a general implementation of the nested sampling algorithm.
Monte Carlo Treatment Planning for Advanced Radiotherapy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cronholm, Rickard
This Ph.d. project describes the development of a workflow for Monte Carlo Treatment Planning for clinical radiotherapy plans. The workflow may be utilized to perform an independent dose verification of treatment plans. Modern radiotherapy treatment delivery is often conducted by dynamically...... modulating the intensity of the field during the irradiation. The workflow described has the potential to fully model the dynamic delivery, including gantry rotation during irradiation, of modern radiotherapy. Three corner stones of Monte Carlo Treatment Planning are identified: Building, commissioning...... and validation of a Monte Carlo model of a medical linear accelerator (i), converting a CT scan of a patient to a Monte Carlo compliant phantom (ii) and translating the treatment plan parameters (including beam energy, angles of incidence, collimator settings etc) to a Monte Carlo input file (iii). A protocol...
The MC21 Monte Carlo Transport Code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sutton TM; Donovan TJ; Trumbull TH; Dobreff PS; Caro E; Griesheimer DP; Tyburski LJ; Carpenter DC; Joo H
2007-01-01
MC21 is a new Monte Carlo neutron and photon transport code currently under joint development at the Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory and the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory. MC21 is the Monte Carlo transport kernel of the broader Common Monte Carlo Design Tool (CMCDT), which is also currently under development. The vision for CMCDT is to provide an automated, computer-aided modeling and post-processing environment integrated with a Monte Carlo solver that is optimized for reactor analysis. CMCDT represents a strategy to push the Monte Carlo method beyond its traditional role as a benchmarking tool or ''tool of last resort'' and into a dominant design role. This paper describes various aspects of the code, including the neutron physics and nuclear data treatments, the geometry representation, and the tally and depletion capabilities
Monte Carlo simulation in nuclear medicine
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morel, Ch.
2007-01-01
The Monte Carlo method allows for simulating random processes by using series of pseudo-random numbers. It became an important tool in nuclear medicine to assist in the design of new medical imaging devices, optimise their use and analyse their data. Presently, the sophistication of the simulation tools allows the introduction of Monte Carlo predictions in data correction and image reconstruction processes. The availability to simulate time dependent processes opens up new horizons for Monte Carlo simulation in nuclear medicine. In a near future, these developments will allow to tackle simultaneously imaging and dosimetry issues and soon, case system Monte Carlo simulations may become part of the nuclear medicine diagnostic process. This paper describes some Monte Carlo method basics and the sampling methods that were developed for it. It gives a referenced list of different simulation software used in nuclear medicine and enumerates some of their present and prospective applications. (author)
Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim
2014-11-01
In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.
Selection of important Monte Carlo histories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Egbert, Stephen D.
1987-01-01
The 1986 Dosimetry System (DS86) for Japanese A-bomb survivors uses information describing the behavior of individual radiation particles, simulated by Monte Carlo methods, to calculate the transmission of radiation into structures and, thence, into humans. However, there are practical constraints on the number of such particle 'histories' that may be used. First, the number must be sufficiently high to provide adequate statistical precision fir any calculated quantity of interest. For integral quantities, such as dose or kerma, statistical precision of approximately 5% (standard deviation) is required to ensure that statistical uncertainties are not a major contributor to the overall uncertainty of the transmitted value. For differential quantities, such as scalar fluence spectra, 10 to 15% standard deviation on individual energy groups is adequate. Second, the number of histories cannot be so large as to require an unacceptably large amount of computer time to process the entire survivor data base. Given that there are approx. 30,000 survivors, each having 13 or 14 organs of interest, the number of histories per organ must be constrained to less than several ten's of thousands at the very most. Selection and use of the most important Monte Carlo leakage histories from among all those calculated allows the creation of an efficient house and organ radiation transmission system for use at RERF. While attempts have been made during the adjoint Monte Carlo calculation to bias the histories toward an efficient dose estimate, this effort has been far from satisfactory. Many of the adjoint histories on a typical leakage tape are either starting in an energy group in which there is very little kerma or dose or leaking into an energy group with very little free-field couple with. By knowing the typical free-field fluence and the fluence-to-dose factors with which the leaking histories will be used, one can select histories rom a leakage tape that will contribute to dose
Importance iteration in MORSE Monte Carlo calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kloosterman, J.L.; Hoogenboom, J.E.
1994-01-01
An expression to calculate point values (the expected detector response of a particle emerging from a collision or the source) is derived and implemented in the MORSE-SGC/S Monte Carlo code. It is outlined how these point values can be smoothed as a function of energy and as a function of the optical thickness between the detector and the source. The smoothed point values are subsequently used to calculate the biasing parameters of the Monte Carlo runs to follow. The method is illustrated by an example that shows that the obtained biasing parameters lead to a more efficient Monte Carlo calculation
Monte Carlo approaches to light nuclei
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, J.
1990-01-01
Significant progress has been made recently in the application of Monte Carlo methods to the study of light nuclei. We review new Green's function Monte Carlo results for the alpha particle, Variational Monte Carlo studies of 16 O, and methods for low-energy scattering and transitions. Through these calculations, a coherent picture of the structure and electromagnetic properties of light nuclei has arisen. In particular, we examine the effect of the three-nucleon interaction and the importance of exchange currents in a variety of experimentally measured properties, including form factors and capture cross sections. 29 refs., 7 figs
Monte Carlo approaches to light nuclei
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carlson, J.
1990-01-01
Significant progress has been made recently in the application of Monte Carlo methods to the study of light nuclei. We review new Green's function Monte Carlo results for the alpha particle, Variational Monte Carlo studies of {sup 16}O, and methods for low-energy scattering and transitions. Through these calculations, a coherent picture of the structure and electromagnetic properties of light nuclei has arisen. In particular, we examine the effect of the three-nucleon interaction and the importance of exchange currents in a variety of experimentally measured properties, including form factors and capture cross sections. 29 refs., 7 figs.
Importance iteration in MORSE Monte Carlo calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kloosterman, J.L.; Hoogenboom, J.E.
1994-02-01
An expression to calculate point values (the expected detector response of a particle emerging from a collision or the source) is derived and implemented in the MORSE-SGC/S Monte Carlo code. It is outlined how these point values can be smoothed as a function of energy and as a function of the optical thickness between the detector and the source. The smoothed point values are subsequently used to calculate the biasing parameters of the Monte Carlo runs to follow. The method is illustrated by an example, which shows that the obtained biasing parameters lead to a more efficient Monte Carlo calculation. (orig.)
Monte carlo simulation for soot dynamics
Zhou, Kun
2012-01-01
A new Monte Carlo method termed Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is developed to simulate the soot dynamics. Detailed stochastic error analysis is provided. Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is coupled with the gas phase solver Chemkin II to simulate soot formation in a 1-D premixed burner stabilized flame. The simulated soot number density, volume fraction, and particle size distribution all agree well with the measurement available in literature. The origin of the bimodal distribution of particle size distribution is revealed with quantitative proof.
Monte Carlo Codes Invited Session
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trama, J.C.; Malvagi, F.; Brown, F.
2013-01-01
This document lists 22 Monte Carlo codes used in radiation transport applications throughout the world. For each code the names of the organization and country and/or place are given. We have the following computer codes. 1) ARCHER, USA, RPI; 2) COG11, USA, LLNL; 3) DIANE, France, CEA/DAM Bruyeres; 4) FLUKA, Italy and CERN, INFN and CERN; 5) GEANT4, International GEANT4 collaboration; 6) KENO and MONACO (SCALE), USA, ORNL; 7) MC21, USA, KAPL and Bettis; 8) MCATK, USA, LANL; 9) MCCARD, South Korea, Seoul National University; 10) MCNP6, USA, LANL; 11) MCU, Russia, Kurchatov Institute; 12) MONK and MCBEND, United Kingdom, AMEC; 13) MORET5, France, IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses; 14) MVP2, Japan, JAEA; 15) OPENMC, USA, MIT; 16) PENELOPE, Spain, Barcelona University; 17) PHITS, Japan, JAEA; 18) PRIZMA, Russia, VNIITF; 19) RMC, China, Tsinghua University; 20) SERPENT, Finland, VTT; 21) SUPERMONTECARLO, China, CAS INEST FDS Team Hefei; and 22) TRIPOLI-4, France, CEA Saclay
Advanced computers and Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, T.L.
1979-01-01
High-performance parallelism that is currently available is synchronous in nature. It is manifested in such architectures as Burroughs ILLIAC-IV, CDC STAR-100, TI ASC, CRI CRAY-1, ICL DAP, and many special-purpose array processors designed for signal processing. This form of parallelism has apparently not been of significant value to many important Monte Carlo calculations. Nevertheless, there is much asynchronous parallelism in many of these calculations. A model of a production code that requires up to 20 hours per problem on a CDC 7600 is studied for suitability on some asynchronous architectures that are on the drawing board. The code is described and some of its properties and resource requirements ae identified to compare with corresponding properties and resource requirements are identified to compare with corresponding properties and resource requirements are identified to compare with corresponding properties and resources of some asynchronous multiprocessor architectures. Arguments are made for programer aids and special syntax to identify and support important asynchronous parallelism. 2 figures, 5 tables
11th International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing
Nuyens, Dirk
2016-01-01
This book presents the refereed proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing that was held at the University of Leuven (Belgium) in April 2014. These biennial conferences are major events for Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo researchers. The proceedings include articles based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected contributed papers on all theoretical aspects and applications of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. Offering information on the latest developments in these very active areas, this book is an excellent reference resource for theoreticians and practitioners interested in solving high-dimensional computational problems, arising, in particular, in finance, statistics and computer graphics.
Quantum Monte Carlo approaches for correlated systems
Becca, Federico
2017-01-01
Over the past several decades, computational approaches to studying strongly-interacting systems have become increasingly varied and sophisticated. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to state-of-the-art quantum Monte Carlo techniques relevant for applications in correlated systems. Providing a clear overview of variational wave functions, and featuring a detailed presentation of stochastic samplings including Markov chains and Langevin dynamics, which are developed into a discussion of Monte Carlo methods. The variational technique is described, from foundations to a detailed description of its algorithms. Further topics discussed include optimisation techniques, real-time dynamics and projection methods, including Green's function, reptation and auxiliary-field Monte Carlo, from basic definitions to advanced algorithms for efficient codes, and the book concludes with recent developments on the continuum space. Quantum Monte Carlo Approaches for Correlated Systems provides an extensive reference ...
Monte Carlo simulations for plasma physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Okamoto, M.; Murakami, S.; Nakajima, N.; Wang, W.X.
2000-07-01
Plasma behaviours are very complicated and the analyses are generally difficult. However, when the collisional processes play an important role in the plasma behaviour, the Monte Carlo method is often employed as a useful tool. For examples, in neutral particle injection heating (NBI heating), electron or ion cyclotron heating, and alpha heating, Coulomb collisions slow down high energetic particles and pitch angle scatter them. These processes are often studied by the Monte Carlo technique and good agreements can be obtained with the experimental results. Recently, Monte Carlo Method has been developed to study fast particle transports associated with heating and generating the radial electric field. Further it is applied to investigating the neoclassical transport in the plasma with steep gradients of density and temperatures which is beyong the conventional neoclassical theory. In this report, we briefly summarize the researches done by the present authors utilizing the Monte Carlo method. (author)
Frontiers of quantum Monte Carlo workshop: preface
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gubernatis, J.E.
1985-01-01
The introductory remarks, table of contents, and list of attendees are presented from the proceedings of the conference, Frontiers of Quantum Monte Carlo, which appeared in the Journal of Statistical Physics
Monte Carlo code development in Los Alamos
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carter, L.L.; Cashwell, E.D.; Everett, C.J.; Forest, C.A.; Schrandt, R.G.; Taylor, W.M.; Thompson, W.L.; Turner, G.D.
1974-01-01
The present status of Monte Carlo code development at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory is discussed. A brief summary is given of several of the most important neutron, photon, and electron transport codes. 17 references. (U.S.)
Experience with the Monte Carlo Method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hussein, E M.A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, N.B., (Canada)
2007-06-15
Monte Carlo simulation of radiation transport provides a powerful research and design tool that resembles in many aspects laboratory experiments. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can provide an insight not attainable in the laboratory. However, the Monte Carlo method has its limitations, which if not taken into account can result in misleading conclusions. This paper will present the experience of this author, over almost three decades, in the use of the Monte Carlo method for a variety of applications. Examples will be shown on how the method was used to explore new ideas, as a parametric study and design optimization tool, and to analyze experimental data. The consequences of not accounting in detail for detector response and the scattering of radiation by surrounding structures are two of the examples that will be presented to demonstrate the pitfall of condensed.
Experience with the Monte Carlo Method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hussein, E.M.A.
2007-01-01
Monte Carlo simulation of radiation transport provides a powerful research and design tool that resembles in many aspects laboratory experiments. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can provide an insight not attainable in the laboratory. However, the Monte Carlo method has its limitations, which if not taken into account can result in misleading conclusions. This paper will present the experience of this author, over almost three decades, in the use of the Monte Carlo method for a variety of applications. Examples will be shown on how the method was used to explore new ideas, as a parametric study and design optimization tool, and to analyze experimental data. The consequences of not accounting in detail for detector response and the scattering of radiation by surrounding structures are two of the examples that will be presented to demonstrate the pitfall of condensed
Monte Carlo Transport for Electron Thermal Transport
Chenhall, Jeffrey; Cao, Duc; Moses, Gregory
2015-11-01
The iSNB (implicit Schurtz Nicolai Busquet multigroup electron thermal transport method of Cao et al. is adapted into a Monte Carlo transport method in order to better model the effects of non-local behavior. The end goal is a hybrid transport-diffusion method that combines Monte Carlo Transport with a discrete diffusion Monte Carlo (DDMC). The hybrid method will combine the efficiency of a diffusion method in short mean free path regions with the accuracy of a transport method in long mean free path regions. The Monte Carlo nature of the approach allows the algorithm to be massively parallelized. Work to date on the method will be presented. This work was supported by Sandia National Laboratory - Albuquerque and the University of Rochester Laboratory for Laser Energetics.
A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm
Collier, Nathan; Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef; Nobile, Fabio; von Schwerin, Erik; Tempone, Raul
2014-01-01
We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error
Simulation and the Monte Carlo method
Rubinstein, Reuven Y
2016-01-01
Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio...
Hybrid Monte Carlo methods in computational finance
Leitao Rodriguez, A.
2017-01-01
Monte Carlo methods are highly appreciated and intensively employed in computational finance in the context of financial derivatives valuation or risk management. The method offers valuable advantages like flexibility, easy interpretation and straightforward implementation. Furthermore, the
Bartalini, P.; Kryukov, A.; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya V.; Sherstnev, A.; Vologdin, A.
2004-01-01
We present the Monte-Carlo events Data Base (MCDB) project and its development plans. MCDB facilitates communication between authors of Monte-Carlo generators and experimental users. It also provides a convenient book-keeping and an easy access to generator level samples. The first release of MCDB is now operational for the CMS collaboration. In this paper we review the main ideas behind MCDB and discuss future plans to develop this Data Base further within the CERN LCG framework.
Multilevel Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation
Jasra, Ajay
2017-02-13
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.
Monte Carlo method applied to medical physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oliveira, C.; Goncalves, I.F.; Chaves, A.; Lopes, M.C.; Teixeira, N.; Matos, B.; Goncalves, I.C.; Ramalho, A.; Salgado, J.
2000-01-01
The main application of the Monte Carlo method to medical physics is dose calculation. This paper shows some results of two dose calculation studies and two other different applications: optimisation of neutron field for Boron Neutron Capture Therapy and optimization of a filter for a beam tube for several purposes. The time necessary for Monte Carlo calculations - the highest boundary for its intensive utilisation - is being over-passed with faster and cheaper computers. (author)
Monte Carlo Techniques for Nuclear Systems - Theory Lectures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, Forrest B.; Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
2016-01-01
These are lecture notes for a Monte Carlo class given at the University of New Mexico. The following topics are covered: course information; nuclear eng. review & MC; random numbers and sampling; computational geometry; collision physics; tallies and statistics; eigenvalue calculations I; eigenvalue calculations II; eigenvalue calculations III; variance reduction; parallel Monte Carlo; parameter studies; fission matrix and higher eigenmodes; doppler broadening; Monte Carlo depletion; HTGR modeling; coupled MC and T/H calculations; fission energy deposition. Solving particle transport problems with the Monte Carlo method is simple - just simulate the particle behavior. The devil is in the details, however. These lectures provide a balanced approach to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulation codes. The first lectures provide an overview of Monte Carlo simulation methods, covering the transport equation, random sampling, computational geometry, collision physics, and statistics. The next lectures focus on the state-of-the-art in Monte Carlo criticality simulations, covering the theory of eigenvalue calculations, convergence analysis, dominance ratio calculations, bias in Keff and tallies, bias in uncertainties, a case study of a realistic calculation, and Wielandt acceleration techniques. The remaining lectures cover advanced topics, including HTGR modeling and stochastic geometry, temperature dependence, fission energy deposition, depletion calculations, parallel calculations, and parameter studies. This portion of the class focuses on using MCNP to perform criticality calculations for reactor physics and criticality safety applications. It is an intermediate level class, intended for those with at least some familiarity with MCNP. Class examples provide hands-on experience at running the code, plotting both geometry and results, and understanding the code output. The class includes lectures & hands-on computer use for a variety of Monte Carlo calculations
Monte Carlo Techniques for Nuclear Systems - Theory Lectures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Forrest B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Monte Carlo Methods, Codes, and Applications Group; Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering Dept.
2016-11-29
These are lecture notes for a Monte Carlo class given at the University of New Mexico. The following topics are covered: course information; nuclear eng. review & MC; random numbers and sampling; computational geometry; collision physics; tallies and statistics; eigenvalue calculations I; eigenvalue calculations II; eigenvalue calculations III; variance reduction; parallel Monte Carlo; parameter studies; fission matrix and higher eigenmodes; doppler broadening; Monte Carlo depletion; HTGR modeling; coupled MC and T/H calculations; fission energy deposition. Solving particle transport problems with the Monte Carlo method is simple - just simulate the particle behavior. The devil is in the details, however. These lectures provide a balanced approach to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulation codes. The first lectures provide an overview of Monte Carlo simulation methods, covering the transport equation, random sampling, computational geometry, collision physics, and statistics. The next lectures focus on the state-of-the-art in Monte Carlo criticality simulations, covering the theory of eigenvalue calculations, convergence analysis, dominance ratio calculations, bias in Keff and tallies, bias in uncertainties, a case study of a realistic calculation, and Wielandt acceleration techniques. The remaining lectures cover advanced topics, including HTGR modeling and stochastic geometry, temperature dependence, fission energy deposition, depletion calculations, parallel calculations, and parameter studies. This portion of the class focuses on using MCNP to perform criticality calculations for reactor physics and criticality safety applications. It is an intermediate level class, intended for those with at least some familiarity with MCNP. Class examples provide hands-on experience at running the code, plotting both geometry and results, and understanding the code output. The class includes lectures & hands-on computer use for a variety of Monte Carlo calculations
Successful vectorization - reactor physics Monte Carlo code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin, W.R.
1989-01-01
Most particle transport Monte Carlo codes in use today are based on the ''history-based'' algorithm, wherein one particle history at a time is simulated. Unfortunately, the ''history-based'' approach (present in all Monte Carlo codes until recent years) is inherently scalar and cannot be vectorized. In particular, the history-based algorithm cannot take advantage of vector architectures, which characterize the largest and fastest computers at the current time, vector supercomputers such as the Cray X/MP or IBM 3090/600. However, substantial progress has been made in recent years in developing and implementing a vectorized Monte Carlo algorithm. This algorithm follows portions of many particle histories at the same time and forms the basis for all successful vectorized Monte Carlo codes that are in use today. This paper describes the basic vectorized algorithm along with descriptions of several variations that have been developed by different researchers for specific applications. These applications have been mainly in the areas of neutron transport in nuclear reactor and shielding analysis and photon transport in fusion plasmas. The relative merits of the various approach schemes will be discussed and the present status of known vectorization efforts will be summarized along with available timing results, including results from the successful vectorization of 3-D general geometry, continuous energy Monte Carlo. (orig.)
Monte Carlo strategies in scientific computing
Liu, Jun S
2008-01-01
This paperback edition is a reprint of the 2001 Springer edition This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians It can also be used as the textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods Many problems discussed in the alter chapters can be potential thesis topics for masters’ or PhD students in statistics or computer science departments Jun Liu is Professor of Statistics at Harvard University, with a courtesy Professor appointment at Harvard Biostatistics Department Professor Liu was the recipient of the 2002 COPSS Presidents' Award, the most prestigious one for sta...
Random Numbers and Monte Carlo Methods
Scherer, Philipp O. J.
Many-body problems often involve the calculation of integrals of very high dimension which cannot be treated by standard methods. For the calculation of thermodynamic averages Monte Carlo methods are very useful which sample the integration volume at randomly chosen points. After summarizing some basic statistics, we discuss algorithms for the generation of pseudo-random numbers with given probability distribution which are essential for all Monte Carlo methods. We show how the efficiency of Monte Carlo integration can be improved by sampling preferentially the important configurations. Finally the famous Metropolis algorithm is applied to classical many-particle systems. Computer experiments visualize the central limit theorem and apply the Metropolis method to the traveling salesman problem.
Off-diagonal expansion quantum Monte Carlo.
Albash, Tameem; Wagenbreth, Gene; Hen, Itay
2017-12-01
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm designed to simulate quantum as well as classical systems at equilibrium, bridging the algorithmic gap between quantum and classical thermal simulation algorithms. The method is based on a decomposition of the quantum partition function that can be viewed as a series expansion about its classical part. We argue that the algorithm not only provides a theoretical advancement in the field of quantum Monte Carlo simulations, but is optimally suited to tackle quantum many-body systems that exhibit a range of behaviors from "fully quantum" to "fully classical," in contrast to many existing methods. We demonstrate the advantages, sometimes by orders of magnitude, of the technique by comparing it against existing state-of-the-art schemes such as path integral quantum Monte Carlo and stochastic series expansion. We also illustrate how our method allows for the unification of quantum and classical thermal parallel tempering techniques into a single algorithm and discuss its practical significance.
Shell model the Monte Carlo way
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ormand, W.E.
1995-01-01
The formalism for the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo approach to the nuclear shell model is presented. The method is based on a linearization of the two-body part of the Hamiltonian in an imaginary-time propagator using the Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation. The foundation of the method, as applied to the nuclear many-body problem, is discussed. Topics presented in detail include: (1) the density-density formulation of the method, (2) computation of the overlaps, (3) the sign of the Monte Carlo weight function, (4) techniques for performing Monte Carlo sampling, and (5) the reconstruction of response functions from an imaginary-time auto-correlation function using MaxEnt techniques. Results obtained using schematic interactions, which have no sign problem, are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the method, while an extrapolation method for realistic Hamiltonians is presented. In addition, applications at finite temperature are outlined
Shell model the Monte Carlo way
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ormand, W.E.
1995-03-01
The formalism for the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo approach to the nuclear shell model is presented. The method is based on a linearization of the two-body part of the Hamiltonian in an imaginary-time propagator using the Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation. The foundation of the method, as applied to the nuclear many-body problem, is discussed. Topics presented in detail include: (1) the density-density formulation of the method, (2) computation of the overlaps, (3) the sign of the Monte Carlo weight function, (4) techniques for performing Monte Carlo sampling, and (5) the reconstruction of response functions from an imaginary-time auto-correlation function using MaxEnt techniques. Results obtained using schematic interactions, which have no sign problem, are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the method, while an extrapolation method for realistic Hamiltonians is presented. In addition, applications at finite temperature are outlined.
Monte Carlo method for array criticality calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dickinson, D.; Whitesides, G.E.
1976-01-01
The Monte Carlo method for solving neutron transport problems consists of mathematically tracing paths of individual neutrons collision by collision until they are lost by absorption or leakage. The fate of the neutron after each collision is determined by the probability distribution functions that are formed from the neutron cross-section data. These distributions are sampled statistically to establish the successive steps in the neutron's path. The resulting data, accumulated from following a large number of batches, are analyzed to give estimates of k/sub eff/ and other collision-related quantities. The use of electronic computers to produce the simulated neutron histories, initiated at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, made the use of the Monte Carlo method practical for many applications. In analog Monte Carlo simulation, the calculation follows the physical events of neutron scattering, absorption, and leakage. To increase calculational efficiency, modifications such as the use of statistical weights are introduced. The Monte Carlo method permits the use of a three-dimensional geometry description and a detailed cross-section representation. Some of the problems in using the method are the selection of the spatial distribution for the initial batch, the preparation of the geometry description for complex units, and the calculation of error estimates for region-dependent quantities such as fluxes. The Monte Carlo method is especially appropriate for criticality safety calculations since it permits an accurate representation of interacting units of fissile material. Dissimilar units, units of complex shape, moderators between units, and reflected arrays may be calculated. Monte Carlo results must be correlated with relevant experimental data, and caution must be used to ensure that a representative set of neutron histories is produced
Solution weighting for the SAND-II Monte Carlo code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oster, C.A.; McElroy, W.N.; Simons, R.L.; Lippincott, E.P.; Odette, G.R.
1976-01-01
Modifications to the SAND-II Error Analysis Monte Carlo code to include solution weighting based on input data uncertainties have been made and are discussed together with background information on the SAND-II algorithm. The new procedure permits input data having smaller uncertainties to have a greater influence on the solution spectrum than do the data having larger uncertainties. The results of an indepth study to find a practical procedure and the first results of its application to three important Interlaboratory LMFBR Reaction Rate (ILRR) program benchmark spectra (CFRMF, ΣΣ, and 235 U fission) are discussed
Monte Carlo simulation applied to alpha spectrometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baccouche, S.; Gharbi, F.; Trabelsi, A.
2007-01-01
Alpha particle spectrometry is a widely-used analytical method, in particular when we deal with pure alpha emitting radionuclides. Monte Carlo simulation is an adequate tool to investigate the influence of various phenomena on this analytical method. We performed an investigation of those phenomena using the simulation code GEANT of CERN. The results concerning the geometrical detection efficiency in different measurement geometries agree with analytical calculations. This work confirms that Monte Carlo simulation of solid angle of detection is a very useful tool to determine with very good accuracy the detection efficiency.
Simplified monte carlo simulation for Beijing spectrometer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Taijie; Wang Shuqin; Yan Wuguang; Huang Yinzhi; Huang Deqiang; Lang Pengfei
1986-01-01
The Monte Carlo method based on the functionization of the performance of detectors and the transformation of values of kinematical variables into ''measured'' ones by means of smearing has been used to program the Monte Carlo simulation of the performance of the Beijing Spectrometer (BES) in FORTRAN language named BESMC. It can be used to investigate the multiplicity, the particle type, and the distribution of four-momentum of the final states of electron-positron collision, and also the response of the BES to these final states. Thus, it provides a measure to examine whether the overall design of the BES is reasonable and to decide the physical topics of the BES
Self-learning Monte Carlo (dynamical biasing)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matthes, W.
1981-01-01
In many applications the histories of a normal Monte Carlo game rarely reach the target region. An approximate knowledge of the importance (with respect to the target) may be used to guide the particles more frequently into the target region. A Monte Carlo method is presented in which each history contributes to update the importance field such that eventually most target histories are sampled. It is a self-learning method in the sense that the procedure itself: (a) learns which histories are important (reach the target) and increases their probability; (b) reduces the probabilities of unimportant histories; (c) concentrates gradually on the more important target histories. (U.K.)
Burnup calculations using Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Biplab; Degweker, S.B.
2009-01-01
In the recent years, interest in burnup calculations using Monte Carlo methods has gained momentum. Previous burn up codes have used multigroup transport theory based calculations followed by diffusion theory based core calculations for the neutronic portion of codes. The transport theory methods invariably make approximations with regard to treatment of the energy and angle variables involved in scattering, besides approximations related to geometry simplification. Cell homogenisation to produce diffusion, theory parameters adds to these approximations. Moreover, while diffusion theory works for most reactors, it does not produce accurate results in systems that have strong gradients, strong absorbers or large voids. Also, diffusion theory codes are geometry limited (rectangular, hexagonal, cylindrical, and spherical coordinates). Monte Carlo methods are ideal to solve very heterogeneous reactors and/or lattices/assemblies in which considerable burnable poisons are used. The key feature of this approach is that Monte Carlo methods permit essentially 'exact' modeling of all geometrical detail, without resort to ene and spatial homogenization of neutron cross sections. Monte Carlo method would also be better for in Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) which could have strong gradients due to the external source and a sub-critical assembly. To meet the demand for an accurate burnup code, we have developed a Monte Carlo burnup calculation code system in which Monte Carlo neutron transport code is coupled with a versatile code (McBurn) for calculating the buildup and decay of nuclides in nuclear materials. McBurn is developed from scratch by the authors. In this article we will discuss our effort in developing the continuous energy Monte Carlo burn-up code, McBurn. McBurn is intended for entire reactor core as well as for unit cells and assemblies. Generally, McBurn can do burnup of any geometrical system which can be handled by the underlying Monte Carlo transport code
Improvements for Monte Carlo burnup calculation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shenglong, Q.; Dong, Y.; Danrong, S.; Wei, L., E-mail: qiangshenglong@tsinghua.org.cn, E-mail: d.yao@npic.ac.cn, E-mail: songdr@npic.ac.cn, E-mail: luwei@npic.ac.cn [Nuclear Power Inst. of China, Cheng Du, Si Chuan (China)
2015-07-01
Monte Carlo burnup calculation is development trend of reactor physics, there would be a lot of work to be done for engineering applications. Based on Monte Carlo burnup code MOI, non-fuel burnup calculation methods and critical search suggestions will be mentioned in this paper. For non-fuel burnup, mixed burnup mode will improve the accuracy of burnup calculation and efficiency. For critical search of control rod position, a new method called ABN based on ABA which used by MC21 will be proposed for the first time in this paper. (author)
A keff calculation method by Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shen, H; Wang, K.
2008-01-01
The effective multiplication factor (k eff ) is defined as the ratio between the number of neutrons in successive generations, which definition is adopted by most Monte Carlo codes (e.g. MCNP). Also, it can be thought of as the ratio of the generation rate of neutrons by the sum of the leakage rate and the absorption rate, which should exclude the effect of the neutron reaction such as (n, 2n) and (n, 3n). This article discusses the Monte Carlo method for k eff calculation based on the second definition. A new code has been developed and the results are presented. (author)
Monte Carlo electron/photon transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mack, J.M.; Morel, J.E.; Hughes, H.G.
1985-01-01
A review of nonplasma coupled electron/photon transport using Monte Carlo method is presented. Remarks are mainly restricted to linerarized formalisms at electron energies from 1 keV to 1000 MeV. Applications involving pulse-height estimation, transport in external magnetic fields, and optical Cerenkov production are discussed to underscore the importance of this branch of computational physics. Advances in electron multigroup cross-section generation is reported, and its impact on future code development assessed. Progress toward the transformation of MCNP into a generalized neutral/charged-particle Monte Carlo code is described. 48 refs
Monte Carlo simulation of neutron scattering instruments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seeger, P.A.
1995-01-01
A library of Monte Carlo subroutines has been developed for the purpose of design of neutron scattering instruments. Using small-angle scattering as an example, the philosophy and structure of the library are described and the programs are used to compare instruments at continuous wave (CW) and long-pulse spallation source (LPSS) neutron facilities. The Monte Carlo results give a count-rate gain of a factor between 2 and 4 using time-of-flight analysis. This is comparable to scaling arguments based on the ratio of wavelength bandwidth to resolution width
Simulation of transport equations with Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matthes, W.
1975-09-01
The main purpose of the report is to explain the relation between the transport equation and the Monte Carlo game used for its solution. The introduction of artificial particles carrying a weight provides one with high flexibility in constructing many different games for the solution of the same equation. This flexibility opens a way to construct a Monte Carlo game for the solution of the adjoint transport equation. Emphasis is laid mostly on giving a clear understanding of what to do and not on the details of how to do a specific game
Monte Carlo dose distributions for radiosurgery
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perucha, M.; Leal, A.; Rincon, M.; Carrasco, E.
2001-01-01
The precision of Radiosurgery Treatment planning systems is limited by the approximations of their algorithms and by their dosimetrical input data. This fact is especially important in small fields. However, the Monte Carlo methods is an accurate alternative as it considers every aspect of particle transport. In this work an acoustic neurinoma is studied by comparing the dose distribution of both a planning system and Monte Carlo. Relative shifts have been measured and furthermore, Dose-Volume Histograms have been calculated for target and adjacent organs at risk. (orig.)
Fast sequential Monte Carlo methods for counting and optimization
Rubinstein, Reuven Y; Vaisman, Radislav
2013-01-01
A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the
Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Jadoon, Khan; Altaf, Muhammad; McCabe, Matthew; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Muhammad, Nisar; Weihermü ller, Lutz
2016-01-01
on the full solution of Maxwell's equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD mini-Explorer. The model parameters and uncertainty for the three-layered earth model
Specialized Monte Carlo codes versus general-purpose Monte Carlo codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moskvin, Vadim; DesRosiers, Colleen; Papiez, Lech; Lu, Xiaoyi
2002-01-01
The possibilities of Monte Carlo modeling for dose calculations and optimization treatment are quite limited in radiation oncology applications. The main reason is that the Monte Carlo technique for dose calculations is time consuming while treatment planning may require hundreds of possible cases of dose simulations to be evaluated for dose optimization. The second reason is that general-purpose codes widely used in practice, require an experienced user to customize them for calculations. This paper discusses the concept of Monte Carlo code design that can avoid the main problems that are preventing wide spread use of this simulation technique in medical physics. (authors)
On the use of stochastic approximation Monte Carlo for Monte Carlo integration
Liang, Faming
2009-03-01
The stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm has recently been proposed as a dynamic optimization algorithm in the literature. In this paper, we show in theory that the samples generated by SAMC can be used for Monte Carlo integration via a dynamically weighted estimator by calling some results from the literature of nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Our numerical results indicate that SAMC can yield significant savings over conventional Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, for the problems for which the energy landscape is rugged. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Monte Carlo calculations for r-process nucleosynthesis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mumpower, Matthew Ryan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-11-12
A Monte Carlo framework is developed for exploring the impact of nuclear model uncertainties on the formation of the heavy elements. Mass measurements tightly constrain the macroscopic sector of FRDM2012. For r-process nucleosynthesis, it is necessary to understand the microscopic physics of the nuclear model employed. A combined approach of measurements and a deeper understanding of the microphysics is thus warranted to elucidate the site of the r-process.
Parallel processing Monte Carlo radiation transport codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McKinney, G.W.
1994-01-01
Issues related to distributed-memory multiprocessing as applied to Monte Carlo radiation transport are discussed. Measurements of communication overhead are presented for the radiation transport code MCNP which employs the communication software package PVM, and average efficiency curves are provided for a homogeneous virtual machine
Monte Carlo determination of heteroepitaxial misfit structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baker, J.; Lindgård, Per-Anker
1996-01-01
We use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the structure of KBr overlayers on a NaCl(001) substrate, a system with large (17%) heteroepitaxial misfit. The equilibrium relaxation structure is determined for films of 2-6 ML, for which extensive helium-atom scattering data exist for comparison...
The Monte Carlo applied for calculation dose
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peixoto, J.E.
1988-01-01
The Monte Carlo method is showed for the calculation of absorbed dose. The trajectory of the photon is traced simulating sucessive interaction between the photon and the substance that consist the human body simulator. The energy deposition in each interaction of the simulator organ or tissue per photon is also calculated. (C.G.C.) [pt
Monte Carlo code for neutron radiography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milczarek, Jacek J.; Trzcinski, Andrzej; El-Ghany El Abd, Abd; Czachor, Andrzej
2005-01-01
The concise Monte Carlo code, MSX, for simulation of neutron radiography images of non-uniform objects is presented. The possibility of modeling the images of objects with continuous spatial distribution of specific isotopes is included. The code can be used for assessment of the scattered neutron component in neutron radiograms
Monte Carlo code for neutron radiography
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Milczarek, Jacek J. [Institute of Atomic Energy, Swierk, 05-400 Otwock (Poland)]. E-mail: jjmilcz@cyf.gov.pl; Trzcinski, Andrzej [Institute for Nuclear Studies, Swierk, 05-400 Otwock (Poland); El-Ghany El Abd, Abd [Institute of Atomic Energy, Swierk, 05-400 Otwock (Poland); Nuclear Research Center, PC 13759, Cairo (Egypt); Czachor, Andrzej [Institute of Atomic Energy, Swierk, 05-400 Otwock (Poland)
2005-04-21
The concise Monte Carlo code, MSX, for simulation of neutron radiography images of non-uniform objects is presented. The possibility of modeling the images of objects with continuous spatial distribution of specific isotopes is included. The code can be used for assessment of the scattered neutron component in neutron radiograms.
Monte Carlo method in neutron activation analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Majerle, M.; Krasa, A.; Svoboda, O.; Wagner, V.; Adam, J.; Peetermans, S.; Slama, O.; Stegajlov, V.I.; Tsupko-Sitnikov, V.M.
2009-01-01
Neutron activation detectors are a useful technique for the neutron flux measurements in spallation experiments. The study of the usefulness and the accuracy of this method at similar experiments was performed with the help of Monte Carlo codes MCNPX and FLUKA
Atomistic Monte Carlo simulation of lipid membranes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wüstner, Daniel; Sklenar, Heinz
2014-01-01
Biological membranes are complex assemblies of many different molecules of which analysis demands a variety of experimental and computational approaches. In this article, we explain challenges and advantages of atomistic Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of lipid membranes. We provide an introduction...... of local-move MC methods in combination with molecular dynamics simulations, for example, for studying multi-component lipid membranes containing cholesterol....
Computer system for Monte Carlo experimentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grier, D.A.
1986-01-01
A new computer system for Monte Carlo Experimentation is presented. The new system speeds and simplifies the process of coding and preparing a Monte Carlo Experiment; it also encourages the proper design of Monte Carlo Experiments, and the careful analysis of the experimental results. A new functional language is the core of this system. Monte Carlo Experiments, and their experimental designs, are programmed in this new language; those programs are compiled into Fortran output. The Fortran output is then compiled and executed. The experimental results are analyzed with a standard statistics package such as Si, Isp, or Minitab or with a user-supplied program. Both the experimental results and the experimental design may be directly loaded into the workspace of those packages. The new functional language frees programmers from many of the details of programming an experiment. Experimental designs such as factorial, fractional factorial, or latin square are easily described by the control structures and expressions of the language. Specific mathematical modes are generated by the routines of the language
Scalable Domain Decomposed Monte Carlo Particle Transport
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
O' Brien, Matthew Joseph [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
2013-12-05
In this dissertation, we present the parallel algorithms necessary to run domain decomposed Monte Carlo particle transport on large numbers of processors (millions of processors). Previous algorithms were not scalable, and the parallel overhead became more computationally costly than the numerical simulation.
Monte Carlo methods beyond detailed balance
Schram, Raoul D.; Barkema, Gerard T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101275080
2015-01-01
Monte Carlo algorithms are nearly always based on the concept of detailed balance and ergodicity. In this paper we focus on algorithms that do not satisfy detailed balance. We introduce a general method for designing non-detailed balance algorithms, starting from a conventional algorithm satisfying
Monte Carlo studies of ZEPLIN III
Dawson, J; Davidge, D C R; Gillespie, J R; Howard, A S; Jones, W G; Joshi, M; Lebedenko, V N; Sumner, T J; Quenby, J J
2002-01-01
A Monte Carlo simulation of a two-phase xenon dark matter detector, ZEPLIN III, has been achieved. Results from the analysis of a simulated data set are presented, showing primary and secondary signal distributions from low energy gamma ray events.
Biases in Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gelbard, E.M.
1992-12-01
The Monte Carlo method has been used for many years to analyze the neutronics of nuclear reactors. In fact, as the power of computers has increased the importance of Monte Carlo in neutronics has also increased, until today this method plays a central role in reactor analysis and design. Monte Carlo is used in neutronics for two somewhat different purposes, i.e., (a) to compute the distribution of neutrons in a given medium when the neutron source-density is specified, and (b) to compute the neutron distribution in a self-sustaining chain reaction, in which case the source is determined as the eigenvector of a certain linear operator. In (b), then, the source is not given, but must be computed. In the first case (the ``fixed-source`` case) the Monte Carlo calculation is unbiased. That is to say that, if the calculation is repeated (``replicated``) over and over, with independent random number sequences for each replica, then averages over all replicas will approach the correct neutron distribution as the number of replicas goes to infinity. Unfortunately, the computation is not unbiased in the second case, which we discuss here.
Biases in Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gelbard, E.M.
1992-01-01
The Monte Carlo method has been used for many years to analyze the neutronics of nuclear reactors. In fact, as the power of computers has increased the importance of Monte Carlo in neutronics has also increased, until today this method plays a central role in reactor analysis and design. Monte Carlo is used in neutronics for two somewhat different purposes, i.e., (a) to compute the distribution of neutrons in a given medium when the neutron source-density is specified, and (b) to compute the neutron distribution in a self-sustaining chain reaction, in which case the source is determined as the eigenvector of a certain linear operator. In (b), then, the source is not given, but must be computed. In the first case (the fixed-source'' case) the Monte Carlo calculation is unbiased. That is to say that, if the calculation is repeated ( replicated'') over and over, with independent random number sequences for each replica, then averages over all replicas will approach the correct neutron distribution as the number of replicas goes to infinity. Unfortunately, the computation is not unbiased in the second case, which we discuss here.
Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rajabalinejad, M., E-mail: M.Rajabalinejad@tudelft.n [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Meester, L.E. [Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Vrijling, J.K. [Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)
2011-02-15
For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper describes a method to reduce the simulation cost even further, while retaining the accuracy of Monte Carlo, by taking into account widely present monotonicity. For models exhibiting monotonic (decreasing or increasing) behavior, dynamic bounds (DB) are defined, which in a coupled Monte Carlo simulation are updated dynamically, resulting in a failure probability estimate, as well as a strict (non-probabilistic) upper and lower bounds. Accurate results are obtained at a much lower cost than an equivalent ordinary Monte Carlo simulation. In a two-dimensional and a four-dimensional numerical example, the cost reduction factors are 130 and 9, respectively, where the relative error is smaller than 5%. At higher accuracy levels, this factor increases, though this effect is expected to be smaller with increasing dimension. To show the application of DB method to real world problems, it is applied to a complex finite element model of a flood wall in New Orleans.
Dynamic bounds coupled with Monte Carlo simulations
Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Meester, L.E.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.
2011-01-01
For the reliability analysis of engineering structures a variety of methods is known, of which Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely considered to be among the most robust and most generally applicable. To reduce simulation cost of the MC method, variance reduction methods are applied. This paper
Design and analysis of Monte Carlo experiments
Kleijnen, Jack P.C.; Gentle, J.E.; Haerdle, W.; Mori, Y.
2012-01-01
By definition, computer simulation or Monte Carlo models are not solved by mathematical analysis (such as differential calculus), but are used for numerical experimentation. The goal of these experiments is to answer questions about the real world; i.e., the experimenters may use their models to
Some problems on Monte Carlo method development
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pei Lucheng
1992-01-01
This is a short paper on some problems of Monte Carlo method development. The content consists of deep-penetration problems, unbounded estimate problems, limitation of Mdtropolis' method, dependency problem in Metropolis' method, random error interference problems and random equations, intellectualisation and vectorization problems of general software
Monte Carlo simulations in theoretical physic
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billoire, A.
1991-01-01
After a presentation of the MONTE CARLO method principle, the method is applied, first to the critical exponents calculations in the three dimensions ISING model, and secondly to the discrete quantum chromodynamic with calculation times in function of computer power. 28 refs., 4 tabs
Monte Carlo method for random surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berg, B.
1985-01-01
Previously two of the authors proposed a Monte Carlo method for sampling statistical ensembles of random walks and surfaces with a Boltzmann probabilistic weight. In the present paper we work out the details for several models of random surfaces, defined on d-dimensional hypercubic lattices. (orig.)
Monte Carlo simulation of the microcanonical ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Creutz, M.
1984-01-01
We consider simulating statistical systems with a random walk on a constant energy surface. This combines features of deterministic molecular dynamics techniques and conventional Monte Carlo simulations. For discrete systems the method can be programmed to run an order of magnitude faster than other approaches. It does not require high quality random numbers and may also be useful for nonequilibrium studies. 10 references
Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo Methods
Kleijnen, Jack P.C.; Ridder, A.A.N.; Rubinstein, R.Y.
2010-01-01
Monte Carlo methods are simulation algorithms to estimate a numerical quantity in a statistical model of a real system. These algorithms are executed by computer programs. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) are needed, even though computer speed has been increasing dramatically, ever since the
Coded aperture optimization using Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martineau, A.; Rocchisani, J.M.; Moretti, J.L.
2010-01-01
Coded apertures using Uniformly Redundant Arrays (URA) have been unsuccessfully evaluated for two-dimensional and three-dimensional imaging in Nuclear Medicine. The images reconstructed from coded projections contain artifacts and suffer from poor spatial resolution in the longitudinal direction. We introduce a Maximum-Likelihood Expectation-Maximization (MLEM) algorithm for three-dimensional coded aperture imaging which uses a projection matrix calculated by Monte Carlo simulations. The aim of the algorithm is to reduce artifacts and improve the three-dimensional spatial resolution in the reconstructed images. Firstly, we present the validation of GATE (Geant4 Application for Emission Tomography) for Monte Carlo simulations of a coded mask installed on a clinical gamma camera. The coded mask modelling was validated by comparison between experimental and simulated data in terms of energy spectra, sensitivity and spatial resolution. In the second part of the study, we use the validated model to calculate the projection matrix with Monte Carlo simulations. A three-dimensional thyroid phantom study was performed to compare the performance of the three-dimensional MLEM reconstruction with conventional correlation method. The results indicate that the artifacts are reduced and three-dimensional spatial resolution is improved with the Monte Carlo-based MLEM reconstruction.
Biases in Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gelbard, E.M.
1992-01-01
The Monte Carlo method has been used for many years to analyze the neutronics of nuclear reactors. In fact, as the power of computers has increased the importance of Monte Carlo in neutronics has also increased, until today this method plays a central role in reactor analysis and design. Monte Carlo is used in neutronics for two somewhat different purposes, i.e., (a) to compute the distribution of neutrons in a given medium when the neutron source-density is specified, and (b) to compute the neutron distribution in a self-sustaining chain reaction, in which case the source is determined as the eigenvector of a certain linear operator. In (b), then, the source is not given, but must be computed. In the first case (the ''fixed-source'' case) the Monte Carlo calculation is unbiased. That is to say that, if the calculation is repeated (''replicated'') over and over, with independent random number sequences for each replica, then averages over all replicas will approach the correct neutron distribution as the number of replicas goes to infinity. Unfortunately, the computation is not unbiased in the second case, which we discuss here
Monte Carlo studies of uranium calorimetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brau, J.; Hargis, H.J.; Gabriel, T.A.; Bishop, B.L.
1985-01-01
Detailed Monte Carlo calculations of uranium calorimetry are presented which reveal a significant difference in the responses of liquid argon and plastic scintillator in uranium calorimeters. Due to saturation effects, neutrons from the uranium are found to contribute only weakly to the liquid argon signal. Electromagnetic sampling inefficiencies are significant and contribute substantially to compensation in both systems. 17 references
Firmani, G.; Matta, J.
2012-04-01
The expansion of mining in the Pilbara region of Western Australia is resulting in the need to develop better water strategies to make below water table resources accessible, manage surplus water and deal with water demands for processing ore and construction. In all these instances, understanding the local and regional hydrogeology is fundamental to allow sustainable mining; minimising the impacts to the environment. An understanding of the uncertainties of the hydrogeology is necessary to quantify the risks and make objective decisions rather than relying on subjective judgements. The aim of this paper is to review some of the methods proposed by the published literature and find approaches that can be practically implemented in an attempt to estimate model uncertainties. In particular, this paper adopts two general probabilistic approaches that address the parametric uncertainty estimation and its propagation in predictive scenarios: the first order analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A case example application of the two techniques is also presented for the dewatering strategy of a large below water table open cut iron ore mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. This study demonstrates the weakness of the deterministic approach, as the coefficients of variation of some model parameters were greater than 1.0; and suggests a review of the model calibration method and conceptualisation. The uncertainty propagation into predictive scenarios was calculated assuming the parameters with a coefficient of variation higher than 0.25 as deterministic, due to computational difficulties to achieve an accurate result with the Monte Carlo method. The conclusion of this case study was that the first order analysis appears to be a successful and simple tool when the coefficients of variation of calibrated parameters are less than 0.25.
Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo
Schön, Thomas B.; Svensson, Andreas; Murray, Lawrence; Lindsten, Fredrik
2018-05-01
Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state-space models. There is no closed-form solution available for this problem, implying that we are forced to use approximations. In this tutorial we will provide a self-contained introduction to one of the state-of-the-art methods-the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm-which has proven to offer a practical approximation. This is a Monte Carlo based method, where the particle filter is used to guide a Markov chain Monte Carlo method through the parameter space. One of the key merits of the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is that it is guaranteed to converge to the "true solution" under mild assumptions, despite being based on a particle filter with only a finite number of particles. We will also provide a motivating numerical example illustrating the method using a modeling language tailored for sequential Monte Carlo methods. The intention of modeling languages of this kind is to open up the power of sophisticated Monte Carlo methods-including particle Metropolis-Hastings-to a large group of users without requiring them to know all the underlying mathematical details.
Prospect on general software of Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pei Lucheng
1992-01-01
This is a short paper on the prospect of Monte Carlo general software. The content consists of cluster sampling method, zero variance technique, self-improved method, and vectorized Monte Carlo method
Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo
Cheon, Sooyoung; Liang, Faming
2009-01-01
in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method
Pain, F.; Dhenain, M.; Gurden, H.; Routier, A. L.; Lefebvre, F.; Mastrippolito, R.; Lanièce, P.
2008-10-01
The β-microprobe is a simple and versatile technique complementary to small animal positron emission tomography (PET). It relies on local measurements of the concentration of positron-labeled molecules. So far, it has been successfully used in anesthetized rats for pharmacokinetics experiments and for the study of brain energetic metabolism. However, the ability of the technique to provide accurate quantitative measurements using 18F, 11C and 15O tracers is likely to suffer from the contribution of 511 keV gamma rays background to the signal and from the contribution of positrons from brain loci surrounding the locus of interest. The aim of the present paper is to provide a method of evaluating several parameters, which are supposed to affect the quantification of recordings performed in vivo with this methodology. We have developed realistic voxelized phantoms of the rat whole body and brain, and used them as input geometries for Monte Carlo simulations of previous β-microprobe reports. In the context of realistic experiments (binding of 11C-Raclopride to D2 dopaminergic receptors in the striatum; local glucose metabolic rate measurement with 18F-FDG and H2O15 blood flow measurements in the somatosensory cortex), we have calculated the detection efficiencies and corresponding contribution of 511 keV gammas from peripheral organs accumulation. We confirmed that the 511 keV gammas background does not impair quantification. To evaluate the contribution of positrons from adjacent structures, we have developed β-Assistant, a program based on a rat brain voxelized atlas and matrices of local detection efficiencies calculated by Monte Carlo simulations for several probe geometries. This program was used to calculate the 'apparent sensitivity' of the probe for each brain structure included in the detection volume. For a given localization of a probe within the brain, this allows us to quantify the different sources of beta signal. Finally, since stereotaxic accuracy is
Applications of Monte Carlo method in Medical Physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diez Rios, A.; Labajos, M.
1989-01-01
The basic ideas of Monte Carlo techniques are presented. Random numbers and their generation by congruential methods, which underlie Monte Carlo calculations are shown. Monte Carlo techniques to solve integrals are discussed. The evaluation of a simple monodimensional integral with a known answer, by means of two different Monte Carlo approaches are discussed. The basic principles to simualate on a computer photon histories reduce variance and the current applications in Medical Physics are commented. (Author)
Monte Carlo computation in the applied research of nuclear technology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Shuyan; Liu Baojie; Li Qin
2007-01-01
This article briefly introduces Monte Carlo Methods and their properties. It narrates the Monte Carlo methods with emphasis in their applications to several domains of nuclear technology. Monte Carlo simulation methods and several commonly used computer software to implement them are also introduced. The proposed methods are demonstrated by a real example. (authors)
Dosimetry applications in GATE Monte Carlo toolkit.
Papadimitroulas, Panagiotis
2017-09-01
Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are a well-established method for studying physical processes in medical physics. The purpose of this review is to present GATE dosimetry applications on diagnostic and therapeutic simulated protocols. There is a significant need for accurate quantification of the absorbed dose in several specific applications such as preclinical and pediatric studies. GATE is an open-source MC toolkit for simulating imaging, radiotherapy (RT) and dosimetry applications in a user-friendly environment, which is well validated and widely accepted by the scientific community. In RT applications, during treatment planning, it is essential to accurately assess the deposited energy and the absorbed dose per tissue/organ of interest, as well as the local statistical uncertainty. Several types of realistic dosimetric applications are described including: molecular imaging, radio-immunotherapy, radiotherapy and brachytherapy. GATE has been efficiently used in several applications, such as Dose Point Kernels, S-values, Brachytherapy parameters, and has been compared against various MC codes which are considered as standard tools for decades. Furthermore, the presented studies show reliable modeling of particle beams when comparing experimental with simulated data. Examples of different dosimetric protocols are reported for individualized dosimetry and simulations combining imaging and therapy dose monitoring, with the use of modern computational phantoms. Personalization of medical protocols can be achieved by combining GATE MC simulations with anthropomorphic computational models and clinical anatomical data. This is a review study, covering several dosimetric applications of GATE, and the different tools used for modeling realistic clinical acquisitions with accurate dose assessment. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Monte Carlo Volcano Seismic Moment Tensors
Waite, G. P.; Brill, K. A.; Lanza, F.
2015-12-01
Inverse modeling of volcano seismic sources can provide insight into the geometry and dynamics of volcanic conduits. But given the logistical challenges of working on an active volcano, seismic networks are typically deficient in spatial and temporal coverage; this potentially leads to large errors in source models. In addition, uncertainties in the centroid location and moment-tensor components, including volumetric components, are difficult to constrain from the linear inversion results, which leads to a poor understanding of the model space. In this study, we employ a nonlinear inversion using a Monte Carlo scheme with the objective of defining robustly resolved elements of model space. The model space is randomized by centroid location and moment tensor eigenvectors. Point sources densely sample the summit area and moment tensors are constrained to a randomly chosen geometry within the inversion; Green's functions for the random moment tensors are all calculated from modeled single forces, making the nonlinear inversion computationally reasonable. We apply this method to very-long-period (VLP) seismic events that accompany minor eruptions at Fuego volcano, Guatemala. The library of single force Green's functions is computed with a 3D finite-difference modeling algorithm through a homogeneous velocity-density model that includes topography, for a 3D grid of nodes, spaced 40 m apart, within the summit region. The homogenous velocity and density model is justified by long wavelength of VLP data. The nonlinear inversion reveals well resolved model features and informs the interpretation through a better understanding of the possible models. This approach can also be used to evaluate possible station geometries in order to optimize networks prior to deployment.
Monte Carlo perturbation theory in neutron transport calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, M.C.G.
1980-01-01
The need to obtain sensitivities in complicated geometrical configurations has resulted in the development of Monte Carlo sensitivity estimation. A new method has been developed to calculate energy-dependent sensitivities of any number of responses in a single Monte Carlo calculation with a very small time penalty. This estimation typically increases the tracking time per source particle by about 30%. The method of estimation is explained. Sensitivities obtained are compared with those calculated by discrete ordinates methods. Further theoretical developments, such as second-order perturbation theory and application to k/sub eff/ calculations, are discussed. The application of the method to uncertainty analysis and to the analysis of benchmark experiments is illustrated. 5 figures
Monte Carlo simulations on a 9-node PC cluster
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gouriou, J.
2001-01-01
Monte Carlo simulation methods are frequently used in the fields of medical physics, dosimetry and metrology of ionising radiation. Nevertheless, the main drawback of this technique is to be computationally slow, because the statistical uncertainty of the result improves only as the square root of the computational time. We present a method, which allows to reduce by a factor 10 to 20 the used effective running time. In practice, the aim was to reduce the calculation time in the LNHB metrological applications from several weeks to a few days. This approach includes the use of a PC-cluster, under Linux operating system and PVM parallel library (version 3.4). The Monte Carlo codes EGS4, MCNP and PENELOPE have been implemented on this platform and for the two last ones adapted for running under the PVM environment. The maximum observed speedup is ranging from a factor 13 to 18 according to the codes and the problems to be simulated. (orig.)
Monte Carlo-based tail exponent estimator
Barunik, Jozef; Vacha, Lukas
2010-11-01
In this paper we propose a new approach to estimation of the tail exponent in financial stock markets. We begin the study with the finite sample behavior of the Hill estimator under α-stable distributions. Using large Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the Hill estimator overestimates the true tail exponent and can hardly be used on samples with small length. Utilizing our results, we introduce a Monte Carlo-based method of estimation for the tail exponent. Our proposed method is not sensitive to the choice of tail size and works well also on small data samples. The new estimator also gives unbiased results with symmetrical confidence intervals. Finally, we demonstrate the power of our estimator on the international world stock market indices. On the two separate periods of 2002-2005 and 2006-2009, we estimate the tail exponent.
No-compromise reptation quantum Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuen, W K; Farrar, Thomas J; Rothstein, Stuart M
2007-01-01
Since its publication, the reptation quantum Monte Carlo algorithm of Baroni and Moroni (1999 Phys. Rev. Lett. 82 4745) has been applied to several important problems in physics, but its mathematical foundations are not well understood. We show that their algorithm is not of typical Metropolis-Hastings type, and we specify conditions required for the generated Markov chain to be stationary and to converge to the intended distribution. The time-step bias may add up, and in many applications it is only the middle of a reptile that is the most important. Therefore, we propose an alternative, 'no-compromise reptation quantum Monte Carlo' to stabilize the middle of the reptile. (fast track communication)
Multilevel Monte Carlo Approaches for Numerical Homogenization
Efendiev, Yalchin R.
2015-10-01
In this article, we study the application of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approaches to numerical random homogenization. Our objective is to compute the expectation of some functionals of the homogenized coefficients, or of the homogenized solutions. This is accomplished within MLMC by considering different sizes of representative volumes (RVEs). Many inexpensive computations with the smallest RVE size are combined with fewer expensive computations performed on larger RVEs. Likewise, when it comes to homogenized solutions, different levels of coarse-grid meshes are used to solve the homogenized equation. We show that, by carefully selecting the number of realizations at each level, we can achieve a speed-up in the computations in comparison to a standard Monte Carlo method. Numerical results are presented for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional test-cases that illustrate the efficiency of the approach.
Status of Monte Carlo at Los Alamos
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, W.L.; Cashwell, E.D.
1980-01-01
At Los Alamos the early work of Fermi, von Neumann, and Ulam has been developed and supplemented by many followers, notably Cashwell and Everett, and the main product today is the continuous-energy, general-purpose, generalized-geometry, time-dependent, coupled neutron-photon transport code called MCNP. The Los Alamos Monte Carlo research and development effort is concentrated in Group X-6. MCNP treats an arbitrary three-dimensional configuration of arbitrary materials in geometric cells bounded by first- and second-degree surfaces and some fourth-degree surfaces (elliptical tori). Monte Carlo has evolved into perhaps the main method for radiation transport calculations at Los Alamos. MCNP is used in every technical division at the Laboratory by over 130 users about 600 times a month accounting for nearly 200 hours of CDC-7600 time
Monte Carlo simulations in skin radiotherapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sarvari, A.; Jeraj, R.; Kron, T.
2000-01-01
The primary goal of this work was to develop a procedure for calculation the appropriate filter shape for a brachytherapy applicator used for skin radiotherapy. In the applicator a radioactive source is positioned close to the skin. Without a filter, the resultant dose distribution would be highly nonuniform.High uniformity is usually required however. This can be achieved using an appropriately shaped filter, which flattens the dose profile. Because of the complexity of the transport and geometry, Monte Carlo simulations had to be used. An 192 Ir high dose rate photon source was used. All necessary transport parameters were simulated with the MCNP4B Monte Carlo code. A highly efficient iterative procedure was developed, which enabled calculation of the optimal filter shape in only few iterations. The initially non-uniform dose distributions became uniform within a percent when applying the filter calculated by this procedure. (author)
Multilevel sequential Monte-Carlo samplers
Jasra, Ajay
2016-01-01
Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods provide a powerful computational technique for reducing the computational cost of estimating expectations for a given computational effort. They are particularly relevant for computational problems when approximate distributions are determined via a resolution parameter h, with h=0 giving the theoretical exact distribution (e.g. SDEs or inverse problems with PDEs). The method provides a benefit by coupling samples from successive resolutions, and estimating differences of successive expectations. We develop a methodology that brings Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) algorithms within the framework of the Multilevel idea, as SMC provides a natural set-up for coupling samples over different resolutions. We prove that the new algorithm indeed preserves the benefits of the multilevel principle, even if samples at all resolutions are now correlated.
Monte Carlo simulation of gas Cerenkov detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mack, J.M.; Jain, M.; Jordan, T.M.
1984-01-01
Theoretical study of selected gamma-ray and electron diagnostic necessitates coupling Cerenkov radiation to electron/photon cascades. A Cerenkov production model and its incorporation into a general geometry Monte Carlo coupled electron/photon transport code is discussed. A special optical photon ray-trace is implemented using bulk optical properties assigned to each Monte Carlo zone. Good agreement exists between experimental and calculated Cerenkov data in the case of a carbon-dioxide gas Cerenkov detector experiment. Cerenkov production and threshold data are presented for a typical carbon-dioxide gas detector that converts a 16.7 MeV photon source to Cerenkov light, which is collected by optics and detected by a photomultiplier
Hypothesis testing of scientific Monte Carlo calculations
Wallerberger, Markus; Gull, Emanuel
2017-11-01
The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and programming bugs. However, the testing paradigms developed for deterministic algorithms have proven to be ill suited for stochastic algorithms. In this paper we demonstrate explicitly how the technique of statistical hypothesis testing, which is in wide use in other fields of science, can be used to devise automatic and reliable tests for Monte Carlo methods, and we show that these tests are able to detect some of the common problems encountered in stochastic scientific simulations. We argue that hypothesis testing should become part of the standard testing toolkit for scientific simulations.
Multilevel sequential Monte-Carlo samplers
Jasra, Ajay
2016-01-05
Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods provide a powerful computational technique for reducing the computational cost of estimating expectations for a given computational effort. They are particularly relevant for computational problems when approximate distributions are determined via a resolution parameter h, with h=0 giving the theoretical exact distribution (e.g. SDEs or inverse problems with PDEs). The method provides a benefit by coupling samples from successive resolutions, and estimating differences of successive expectations. We develop a methodology that brings Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) algorithms within the framework of the Multilevel idea, as SMC provides a natural set-up for coupling samples over different resolutions. We prove that the new algorithm indeed preserves the benefits of the multilevel principle, even if samples at all resolutions are now correlated.
Status of Monte Carlo at Los Alamos
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, W.L.; Cashwell, E.D.; Godfrey, T.N.K.; Schrandt, R.G.; Deutsch, O.L.; Booth, T.E.
1980-05-01
Four papers were presented by Group X-6 on April 22, 1980, at the Oak Ridge Radiation Shielding Information Center (RSIC) Seminar-Workshop on Theory and Applications of Monte Carlo Methods. These papers are combined into one report for convenience and because they are related to each other. The first paper (by Thompson and Cashwell) is a general survey about X-6 and MCNP and is an introduction to the other three papers. It can also serve as a resume of X-6. The second paper (by Godfrey) explains some of the details of geometry specification in MCNP. The third paper (by Cashwell and Schrandt) illustrates calculating flux at a point with MCNP; in particular, the once-more-collided flux estimator is demonstrated. Finally, the fourth paper (by Thompson, Deutsch, and Booth) is a tutorial on some variance-reduction techniques. It should be required for a fledging Monte Carlo practitioner
Topological zero modes in Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dilger, H.
1994-08-01
We present an improvement of global Metropolis updating steps, the instanton hits, used in a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation of the two-flavor Schwinger model with staggered fermions. These hits are designed to change the topological sector of the gauge field. In order to match these hits to an unquenched simulation with pseudofermions, the approximate zero mode structure of the lattice Dirac operator has to be considered explicitly. (orig.)
Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo
Brooks, Steve
2011-01-01
""Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo"" brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.
The lund Monte Carlo for jet fragmentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sjoestrand, T.
1982-03-01
We present a Monte Carlo program based on the Lund model for jet fragmentation. Quark, gluon, diquark and hadron jets are considered. Special emphasis is put on the fragmentation of colour singlet jet systems, for which energy, momentum and flavour are conserved explicitly. The model for decays of unstable particles, in particular the weak decay of heavy hadrons, is described. The central part of the paper is a detailed description on how to use the FORTRAN 77 program. (Author)
Monte Carlo methods for preference learning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Viappiani, P.
2012-01-01
Utility elicitation is an important component of many applications, such as decision support systems and recommender systems. Such systems query the users about their preferences and give recommendations based on the system’s belief about the utility function. Critical to these applications is th...... is the acquisition of prior distribution about the utility parameters and the possibility of real time Bayesian inference. In this paper we consider Monte Carlo methods for these problems....
Monte Carlo methods for shield design calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grimstone, M.J.
1974-01-01
A suite of Monte Carlo codes is being developed for use on a routine basis in commercial reactor shield design. The methods adopted for this purpose include the modular construction of codes, simplified geometries, automatic variance reduction techniques, continuous energy treatment of cross section data, and albedo methods for streaming. Descriptions are given of the implementation of these methods and of their use in practical calculations. 26 references. (U.S.)
General purpose code for Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilcke, W.W.
1983-01-01
A general-purpose computer called MONTHY has been written to perform Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems. To achieve a high degree of flexibility the code is organized like a general purpose computer, operating on a vector describing the time dependent state of the system under simulation. The instruction set of the computer is defined by the user and is therefore adaptable to the particular problem studied. The organization of MONTHY allows iterative and conditional execution of operations
Autocorrelations in hybrid Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schaefer, Stefan; Virotta, Francesco
2010-11-01
Simulations of QCD suffer from severe critical slowing down towards the continuum limit. This problem is known to be prominent in the topological charge, however, all observables are affected to various degree by these slow modes in the Monte Carlo evolution. We investigate the slowing down in high statistics simulations and propose a new error analysis method, which gives a realistic estimate of the contribution of the slow modes to the errors. (orig.)
Introduction to the Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uzhinskij, V.V.
1993-01-01
Codes illustrating the use of Monte Carlo methods in high energy physics such as the inverse transformation method, the ejection method, the particle propagation through the nucleus, the particle interaction with the nucleus, etc. are presented. A set of useful algorithms of random number generators is given (the binomial distribution, the Poisson distribution, β-distribution, γ-distribution and normal distribution). 5 figs., 1 tab
Sequential Monte Carlo with Highly Informative Observations
Del Moral, Pierre; Murray, Lawrence M.
2014-01-01
We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is simulating bridges between given initial and final values. The basic idea is to introduce a schedule of intermediate weighting and resampling times between observation times, which guide particles towards the final state. This can always be done for continuous-...
Monte Carlo codes use in neutron therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paquis, P.; Mokhtari, F.; Karamanoukian, D.; Pignol, J.P.; Cuendet, P.; Iborra, N.
1998-01-01
Monte Carlo calculation codes allow to study accurately all the parameters relevant to radiation effects, like the dose deposition or the type of microscopic interactions, through one by one particle transport simulation. These features are very useful for neutron irradiations, from device development up to dosimetry. This paper illustrates some applications of these codes in Neutron Capture Therapy and Neutron Capture Enhancement of fast neutrons irradiations. (authors)
Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of light nuclei
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pandharipande, V. R.
1999-01-01
Quantum Monte Carlo methods provide an essentially exact way to calculate various properties of nuclear bound, and low energy continuum states, from realistic models of nuclear interactions and currents. After a brief description of the methods and modern models of nuclear forces, we review the results obtained for all the bound, and some continuum states of up to eight nucleons. Various other applications of the methods are reviewed along with future prospects
Monte-Carlo simulation of electromagnetic showers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amatuni, Ts.A.
1984-01-01
The universal ELSS-1 program for Monte Carlo simulation of high energy electromagnetic showers in homogeneous absorbers of arbitrary geometry is written. The major processes and effects of electron and photon interaction with matter, particularly the Landau-Pomeranchuk-Migdal effect, are taken into account in the simulation procedures. The simulation results are compared with experimental data. Some characteristics of shower detectors and electromagnetic showers for energies up 1 TeV are calculated
Cost of splitting in Monte Carlo transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Everett, C.J.; Cashwell, E.D.
1978-03-01
In a simple transport problem designed to estimate transmission through a plane slab of x free paths by Monte Carlo methods, it is shown that m-splitting (m > or = 2) does not pay unless exp(x) > m(m + 3)/(m - 1). In such a case, the minimum total cost in terms of machine time is obtained as a function of m, and the optimal value of m is determined
Monte Carlo simulation of Touschek effect
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aimin Xiao
2010-07-01
Full Text Available We present a Monte Carlo method implementation in the code elegant for simulating Touschek scattering effects in a linac beam. The local scattering rate and the distribution of scattered electrons can be obtained from the code either for a Gaussian-distributed beam or for a general beam whose distribution function is given. In addition, scattered electrons can be tracked through the beam line and the local beam-loss rate and beam halo information recorded.
Monte Carlo method for neutron transport problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asaoka, Takumi
1977-01-01
Some methods for decreasing variances in Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations are presented together with the results of sample calculations. A general purpose neutron transport Monte Carlo code ''MORSE'' was used for the purpose. The first method discussed in this report is the method of statistical estimation. As an example of this method, the application of the coarse-mesh rebalance acceleration method to the criticality calculation of a cylindrical fast reactor is presented. Effective multiplication factor and its standard deviation are presented as a function of the number of histories and comparisons are made between the coarse-mesh rebalance method and the standard method. Five-group neutron fluxes at core center are also compared with the result of S4 calculation. The second method is the method of correlated sampling. This method was applied to the perturbation calculation of control rod worths in a fast critical assembly (FCA-V-3) Two methods of sampling (similar flight paths and identical flight paths) are tested and compared with experimental results. For every cases the experimental value lies within the standard deviation of the Monte Carlo calculations. The third method is the importance sampling. In this report a biased selection of particle flight directions discussed. This method was applied to the flux calculation in a spherical fast neutron system surrounded by a 10.16 cm iron reflector. Result-direction biasing, path-length stretching, and no biasing are compared with S8 calculation. (Aoki, K.)
Biased Monte Carlo optimization: the basic approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campioni, Luca; Scardovelli, Ruben; Vestrucci, Paolo
2005-01-01
It is well-known that the Monte Carlo method is very successful in tackling several kinds of system simulations. It often happens that one has to deal with rare events, and the use of a variance reduction technique is almost mandatory, in order to have Monte Carlo efficient applications. The main issue associated with variance reduction techniques is related to the choice of the value of the biasing parameter. Actually, this task is typically left to the experience of the Monte Carlo user, who has to make many attempts before achieving an advantageous biasing. A valuable result is provided: a methodology and a practical rule addressed to establish an a priori guidance for the choice of the optimal value of the biasing parameter. This result, which has been obtained for a single component system, has the notable property of being valid for any multicomponent system. In particular, in this paper, the exponential and the uniform biases of exponentially distributed phenomena are investigated thoroughly
Quantum Monte Carlo for vibrating molecules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, W.R.; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA
1996-08-01
Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) has successfully computed the total electronic energies of atoms and molecules. The main goal of this work is to use correlation function quantum Monte Carlo (CFQMC) to compute the vibrational state energies of molecules given a potential energy surface (PES). In CFQMC, an ensemble of random walkers simulate the diffusion and branching processes of the imaginary-time time dependent Schroedinger equation in order to evaluate the matrix elements. The program QMCVIB was written to perform multi-state VMC and CFQMC calculations and employed for several calculations of the H 2 O and C 3 vibrational states, using 7 PES's, 3 trial wavefunction forms, two methods of non-linear basis function parameter optimization, and on both serial and parallel computers. In order to construct accurate trial wavefunctions different wavefunctions forms were required for H 2 O and C 3 . In order to construct accurate trial wavefunctions for C 3 , the non-linear parameters were optimized with respect to the sum of the energies of several low-lying vibrational states. In order to stabilize the statistical error estimates for C 3 the Monte Carlo data was collected into blocks. Accurate vibrational state energies were computed using both serial and parallel QMCVIB programs. Comparison of vibrational state energies computed from the three C 3 PES's suggested that a non-linear equilibrium geometry PES is the most accurate and that discrete potential representations may be used to conveniently determine vibrational state energies
Lattice gauge theories and Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rebbi, C.
1981-11-01
After some preliminary considerations, the discussion of quantum gauge theories on a Euclidean lattice takes up the definition of Euclidean quantum theory and treatment of the continuum limit; analogy is made with statistical mechanics. Perturbative methods can produce useful results for strong or weak coupling. In the attempts to investigate the properties of the systems for intermediate coupling, numerical methods known as Monte Carlo simulations have proved valuable. The bulk of this paper illustrates the basic ideas underlying the Monte Carlo numerical techniques and the major results achieved with them according to the following program: Monte Carlo simulations (general theory, practical considerations), phase structure of Abelian and non-Abelian models, the observables (coefficient of the linear term in the potential between two static sources at large separation, mass of the lowest excited state with the quantum numbers of the vacuum (the so-called glueball), the potential between two static sources at very small distance, the critical temperature at which sources become deconfined), gauge fields coupled to basonic matter (Higgs) fields, and systems with fermions
Generalized hybrid Monte Carlo - CMFD methods for fission source convergence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wolters, Emily R.; Larsen, Edward W.; Martin, William R.
2011-01-01
In this paper, we generalize the recently published 'CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo' method and present two new methods that reduce the statistical error in CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo. The CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo method uses Monte Carlo to estimate nonlinear functionals used in low-order CMFD equations for the eigenfunction and eigenvalue. The Monte Carlo fission source is then modified to match the resulting CMFD fission source in a 'feedback' procedure. The two proposed methods differ from CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo in the definition of the required nonlinear functionals, but they have identical CMFD equations. The proposed methods are compared with CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo on a high dominance ratio test problem. All hybrid methods converge the Monte Carlo fission source almost immediately, leading to a large reduction in the number of inactive cycles required. The proposed methods stabilize the fission source more efficiently than CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo, leading to a reduction in the number of active cycles required. Finally, as in CMFD-Accelerated Monte Carlo, the apparent variance of the eigenfunction is approximately equal to the real variance, so the real error is well-estimated from a single calculation. This is an advantage over standard Monte Carlo, in which the real error can be underestimated due to inter-cycle correlation. (author)
Monte Carlo methods and models in finance and insurance
Korn, Ralf; Kroisandt, Gerald
2010-01-01
Offering a unique balance between applications and calculations, Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance incorporates the application background of finance and insurance with the theory and applications of Monte Carlo methods. It presents recent methods and algorithms, including the multilevel Monte Carlo method, the statistical Romberg method, and the Heath-Platen estimator, as well as recent financial and actuarial models, such as the Cheyette and dynamic mortality models. The authors separately discuss Monte Carlo techniques, stochastic process basics, and the theoretical background and intuition behind financial and actuarial mathematics, before bringing the topics together to apply the Monte Carlo methods to areas of finance and insurance. This allows for the easy identification of standard Monte Carlo tools and for a detailed focus on the main principles of financial and insurance mathematics. The book describes high-level Monte Carlo methods for standard simulation and the simulation of...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mirzakhanian, L; Enger, S; Giusti, V
2015-01-01
Purpose: A major concern in proton therapy is the production of secondary neutrons causing secondary cancers, especially in young adults and children. Most utilized Monte Carlo codes in proton therapy are Geant4 and MCNP. However, the default versions of Geant4 and MCNP6 do not have suitable cross sections or physical models to properly handle secondary particle production in proton energy ranges used for therapy. In this study, default versions of Geant4 and MCNP6 were modified to better handle production of secondaries by adding the TENDL-2012 cross-section library. Methods: In-water proton depth-dose was measured at the “The Svedberg Laboratory” in Uppsala (Sweden). The proton beam was mono-energetic with mean energy of 178.25±0.2 MeV. The measurement set-up was simulated by Geant4 version 10.00 (default and modified version) and MCNP6. Proton depth-dose, primary and secondary particle fluence and neutron equivalent dose were calculated. In case of Geant4, the secondary particle fluence was filtered by all the physics processes to identify the main process responsible for the difference between the default and modified version. Results: The proton depth-dose curves and primary proton fluence show a good agreement between both Geant4 versions and MCNP6. With respect to the modified version, default Geant4 underestimates the production of secondary neutrons while overestimates that of gammas. The “ProtonInElastic” process was identified as the main responsible process for the difference between the two versions. MCNP6 shows higher neutron production and lower gamma production than both Geant4 versions. Conclusion: Despite the good agreement on the proton depth dose curve and primary proton fluence, there is a significant discrepancy on secondary neutron production between MCNP6 and both versions of Geant4. Further studies are thus in order to find the possible cause of this discrepancy or more accurate cross-sections/models to handle the nuclear
Guideline of Monte Carlo calculation. Neutron/gamma ray transport simulation by Monte Carlo method
2002-01-01
This report condenses basic theories and advanced applications of neutron/gamma ray transport calculations in many fields of nuclear energy research. Chapters 1 through 5 treat historical progress of Monte Carlo methods, general issues of variance reduction technique, cross section libraries used in continuous energy Monte Carlo codes. In chapter 6, the following issues are discussed: fusion benchmark experiments, design of ITER, experiment analyses of fast critical assembly, core analyses of JMTR, simulation of pulsed neutron experiment, core analyses of HTTR, duct streaming calculations, bulk shielding calculations, neutron/gamma ray transport calculations of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Chapters 8 and 9 treat function enhancements of MCNP and MVP codes, and a parallel processing of Monte Carlo calculation, respectively. An important references are attached at the end of this report.
Monte Carlo Simulation of stepping source in afterloading intracavitary brachytherapy for GZP6 unit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toossi, M.T.B.; Abdollahi, M.; Ghorbani, M.
2010-01-01
Full text: Stepping source in brachytherapy systems is used to treat a target lesion longer than the effective treatment length of the source. Dose calculation accuracy plays a vital role in the outcome of brachytherapy treatment. In this study, the stepping source (channel 6) of GZP6 brachytherapy unit was simulated by Monte Carlo simulation and matrix shift method. The stepping source of GZP6 was simulated by Monte Carlo MCNPX code. The Mesh tally (type I) was employed for absorbed dose calculation in a cylindrical water phantom. 5 x 108 photon histories were scored and a 0.2% statistical uncertainty was obtained by Monte Carlo calculations. Dose distributions were obtained by our matrix shift method for esophageal cancer tumor lengths of 8 and 10 cm. Isodose curves produced by simulation and TPS were superimposed to estimate the differences. Results Comparison of Monte Carlo and TPS dose distributions show that in longitudinal direction (source movement direction) Monte Carlo and TPS dose distributions are comparable. [n transverse direction, the dose differences of 7 and 5% were observed for esophageal tumor lengths of 8 and 10 cm respectively. Conclusions Although, the results show that the maximum difference between Monte Carlo and TPS calculations is about 7%, but considering that the certified activity is given with ± I 0%, uncertainty, then an error of the order of 20% for Monte Carlo calculation would be reasonable. It can be suggested that accuracy of the dose distribution produced by TPS is acceptable for clinical applications. (author)
Statistical estimation Monte Carlo for unreliability evaluation of highly reliable system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xiao Gang; Su Guanghui; Jia Dounan; Li Tianduo
2000-01-01
Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding-sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency
Investigating the impossible: Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kramer, Gary H.; Crowley, Paul; Burns, Linda C.
2000-01-01
Designing and testing new equipment can be an expensive and time consuming process or the desired performance characteristics may preclude its construction due to technological shortcomings. Cost may also prevent equipment being purchased for other scenarios to be tested. An alternative is to use Monte Carlo simulations to make the investigations. This presentation exemplifies how Monte Carlo code calculations can be used to fill the gap. An example is given for the investigation of two sizes of germanium detector (70 mm and 80 mm diameter) at four different crystal thicknesses (15, 20, 25, and 30 mm) and makes predictions on how the size affects the counting efficiency and the Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA). The Monte Carlo simulations have shown that detector efficiencies can be adequately modelled using photon transport if the data is used to investigate trends. The investigation of the effect of detector thickness on the counting efficiency has shown that thickness for a fixed diameter detector of either 70 mm or 80 mm is unimportant up to 60 keV. At higher photon energies, the counting efficiency begins to decrease as the thickness decreases as expected. The simulations predict that the MDA of either the 70 mm or 80 mm diameter detectors does not differ by more than a factor of 1.15 at 17 keV or 1.2 at 60 keV when comparing detectors of equivalent thicknesses. The MDA is slightly increased at 17 keV, and rises by about 52% at 660 keV, when the thickness is decreased from 30 mm to 15 mm. One could conclude from this information that the extra cost associated with the larger area Ge detectors may not be justified for the slight improvement predicted in the MDA. (author)
Monte Carlo simulations on SIMD computer architectures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burmester, C.P.; Gronsky, R.; Wille, L.T.
1992-01-01
In this paper algorithmic considerations regarding the implementation of various materials science applications of the Monte Carlo technique to single instruction multiple data (SIMD) computer architectures are presented. In particular, implementation of the Ising model with nearest, next nearest, and long range screened Coulomb interactions on the SIMD architecture MasPar MP-1 (DEC mpp-12000) series of massively parallel computers is demonstrated. Methods of code development which optimize processor array use and minimize inter-processor communication are presented including lattice partitioning and the use of processor array spanning tree structures for data reduction. Both geometric and algorithmic parallel approaches are utilized. Benchmarks in terms of Monte Carl updates per second for the MasPar architecture are presented and compared to values reported in the literature from comparable studies on other architectures
Monte Carlo Simulation of an American Option
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gikiri Thuo
2007-04-01
Full Text Available We implement gradient estimation techniques for sensitivity analysis of option pricing which can be efficiently employed in Monte Carlo simulation. Using these techniques we can simultaneously obtain an estimate of the option value together with the estimates of sensitivities of the option value to various parameters of the model. After deriving the gradient estimates we incorporate them in an iterative stochastic approximation algorithm for pricing an option with early exercise features. We illustrate the procedure using an example of an American call option with a single dividend that is analytically tractable. In particular we incorporate estimates for the gradient with respect to the early exercise threshold level.
Monte Carlo study of the multiquark systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kerbikov, B.O.; Polikarpov, M.I.; Zamolodchikov, A.B.
1986-01-01
Random walks have been used to calculate the energies of the ground states in systems of N=3, 6, 9, 12 quarks. Multiquark states with N>3 are unstable with respect to the spontaneous dissociation into color singlet hadrons. The modified Green's function Monte Carlo algorithm which proved to be more simple and much accurate than the conventional few body methods have been employed. In contrast to other techniques, the same equations are used for any number of particles, while the computer time increases only linearly V, S the number of particles
ATLAS Monte Carlo tunes for MC09
The ATLAS collaboration
2010-01-01
This note describes the ATLAS tunes of underlying event and minimum bias description for the main Monte Carlo generators used in the MC09 production. For the main shower generators, pythia and herwig (with jimmy), the MRST LO* parton distribution functions (PDFs) were used for the first time in ATLAS. Special studies on the performance of these, conceptually new, PDFs for high pt physics processes at LHC energies are presented. In addition, a tune of jimmy for CTEQ6.6 is presented, for use with MC@NLO.
Markov chains analytic and Monte Carlo computations
Graham, Carl
2014-01-01
Markov Chains: Analytic and Monte Carlo Computations introduces the main notions related to Markov chains and provides explanations on how to characterize, simulate, and recognize them. Starting with basic notions, this book leads progressively to advanced and recent topics in the field, allowing the reader to master the main aspects of the classical theory. This book also features: Numerous exercises with solutions as well as extended case studies.A detailed and rigorous presentation of Markov chains with discrete time and state space.An appendix presenting probabilistic notions that are nec
Atomistic Monte Carlo simulation of lipid membranes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wüstner, Daniel; Sklenar, Heinz
2014-01-01
Biological membranes are complex assemblies of many different molecules of which analysis demands a variety of experimental and computational approaches. In this article, we explain challenges and advantages of atomistic Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of lipid membranes. We provide an introduction...... into the various move sets that are implemented in current MC methods for efficient conformational sampling of lipids and other molecules. In the second part, we demonstrate for a concrete example, how an atomistic local-move set can be implemented for MC simulations of phospholipid monomers and bilayer patches...
Monte Carlo method in radiation transport problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dejonghe, G.; Nimal, J.C.; Vergnaud, T.
1986-11-01
In neutral radiation transport problems (neutrons, photons), two values are important: the flux in the phase space and the density of particles. To solve the problem with Monte Carlo method leads to, among other things, build a statistical process (called the play) and to provide a numerical value to a variable x (this attribution is called score). Sampling techniques are presented. Play biasing necessity is proved. A biased simulation is made. At last, the current developments (rewriting of programs for instance) are presented due to several reasons: two of them are the vectorial calculation apparition and the photon and neutron transport in vacancy media [fr
Mosaic crystal algorithm for Monte Carlo simulations
Seeger, P A
2002-01-01
An algorithm is presented for calculating reflectivity, absorption, and scattering of mosaic crystals in Monte Carlo simulations of neutron instruments. The algorithm uses multi-step transport through the crystal with an exact solution of the Darwin equations at each step. It relies on the kinematical model for Bragg reflection (with parameters adjusted to reproduce experimental data). For computation of thermal effects (the Debye-Waller factor and coherent inelastic scattering), an expansion of the Debye integral as a rapidly converging series of exponential terms is also presented. Any crystal geometry and plane orientation may be treated. The algorithm has been incorporated into the neutron instrument simulation package NISP. (orig.)
A note on simultaneous Monte Carlo tests
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hahn, Ute
In this short note, Monte Carlo tests of goodness of fit for data of the form X(t), t ∈ I are considered, that reject the null hypothesis if X(t) leaves an acceptance region bounded by an upper and lower curve for some t in I. A construction of the acceptance region is proposed that complies to a...... to a given target level of rejection, and yields exact p-values. The construction is based on pointwise quantiles, estimated from simulated realizations of X(t) under the null hypothesis....
Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities
Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.
2014-09-01
Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward
MBR Monte Carlo Simulation in PYTHIA8
Ciesielski, R.
We present the MBR (Minimum Bias Rockefeller) Monte Carlo simulation of (anti)proton-proton interactions and its implementation in the PYTHIA8 event generator. We discuss the total, elastic, and total-inelastic cross sections, and three contributions from diffraction dissociation processes that contribute to the latter: single diffraction, double diffraction, and central diffraction or double-Pomeron exchange. The event generation follows a renormalized-Regge-theory model, successfully tested using CDF data. Based on the MBR-enhanced PYTHIA8 simulation, we present cross-section predictions for the LHC and beyond, up to collision energies of 50 TeV.
Spectral functions from Quantum Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silver, R.N.
1989-01-01
In his review, D. Scalapino identified two serious limitations on the application of Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods to the models of interest in High T c Superconductivity (HTS). One is the ''sign problem''. The other is the ''analytic continuation problem'', which is how to extract electron spectral functions from QMC calculations of the imaginary time Green's functions. Through-out this Symposium on HTS, the spectral functions have been the focus for the discussion of normal state properties including the applicability of band theory, Fermi liquid theory, marginal Fermi liquids, and novel non-perturbative states. 5 refs., 1 fig
An analysis of Monte Carlo tree search
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
James, S
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Tree Search Steven James∗, George Konidaris† & Benjamin Rosman∗‡ ∗University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa †Brown University, Providence RI 02912, USA ‡Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa steven....james@students.wits.ac.za, gdk@cs.brown.edu, brosman@csir.co.za Abstract Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a family of directed search algorithms that has gained widespread attention in re- cent years. Despite the vast amount of research into MCTS, the effect of modifications...
Monte Carlo simulation for the transport beamline
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Romano, F.; Cuttone, G.; Jia, S. B.; Varisano, A. [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali del Sud, Via Santa Sofia 62, Catania (Italy); Attili, A.; Marchetto, F.; Russo, G. [INFN, Sezione di Torino, Via P.Giuria, 1 10125 Torino (Italy); Cirrone, G. A. P.; Schillaci, F.; Scuderi, V. [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali del Sud, Via Santa Sofia 62, Catania, Italy and Institute of Physics Czech Academy of Science, ELI-Beamlines project, Na Slovance 2, Prague (Czech Republic); Carpinelli, M. [INFN Sezione di Cagliari, c/o Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Cagliari, Cagliari (Italy); Tramontana, A. [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali del Sud, Via Santa Sofia 62, Catania, Italy and Università di Catania, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Via S. Sofia 64, Catania (Italy)
2013-07-26
In the framework of the ELIMED project, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to study the physical transport of charged particles generated by laser-target interactions and to preliminarily evaluate fluence and dose distributions. An energy selection system and the experimental setup for the TARANIS laser facility in Belfast (UK) have been already simulated with the GEANT4 (GEometry ANd Tracking) MC toolkit. Preliminary results are reported here. Future developments are planned to implement a MC based 3D treatment planning in order to optimize shots number and dose delivery.
Monte Carlo simulation for the transport beamline
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Romano, F.; Cuttone, G.; Jia, S. B.; Varisano, A.; Attili, A.; Marchetto, F.; Russo, G.; Cirrone, G. A. P.; Schillaci, F.; Scuderi, V.; Carpinelli, M.; Tramontana, A.
2013-01-01
In the framework of the ELIMED project, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to study the physical transport of charged particles generated by laser-target interactions and to preliminarily evaluate fluence and dose distributions. An energy selection system and the experimental setup for the TARANIS laser facility in Belfast (UK) have been already simulated with the GEANT4 (GEometry ANd Tracking) MC toolkit. Preliminary results are reported here. Future developments are planned to implement a MC based 3D treatment planning in order to optimize shots number and dose delivery
Diffusion quantum Monte Carlo for molecules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lester, W.A. Jr.
1986-07-01
A quantum mechanical Monte Carlo method has been used for the treatment of molecular problems. The imaginary-time Schroedinger equation written with a shift in zero energy [E/sub T/ - V(R)] can be interpreted as a generalized diffusion equation with a position-dependent rate or branching term. Since diffusion is the continuum limit of a random walk, one may simulate the Schroedinger equation with a function psi (note, not psi 2 ) as a density of ''walks.'' The walks undergo an exponential birth and death as given by the rate term. 16 refs., 2 tabs
Monte Carlo modelling for neutron guide losses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cser, L.; Rosta, L.; Toeroek, Gy.
1989-09-01
In modern research reactors, neutron guides are commonly used for beam conducting. The neutron guide is a well polished or equivalently smooth glass tube covered inside by sputtered or evaporated film of natural Ni or 58 Ni isotope where the neutrons are totally reflected. A Monte Carlo calculation was carried out to establish the real efficiency and the spectral as well as spatial distribution of the neutron beam at the end of a glass mirror guide. The losses caused by mechanical inaccuracy and mirror quality were considered and the effects due to the geometrical arrangement were analyzed. (author) 2 refs.; 2 figs
Diffusion Monte Carlo approach versus adiabatic computation for local Hamiltonians
Bringewatt, Jacob; Dorland, William; Jordan, Stephen P.; Mink, Alan
2018-02-01
Most research regarding quantum adiabatic optimization has focused on stoquastic Hamiltonians, whose ground states can be expressed with only real non-negative amplitudes and thus for whom destructive interference is not manifest. This raises the question of whether classical Monte Carlo algorithms can efficiently simulate quantum adiabatic optimization with stoquastic Hamiltonians. Recent results have given counterexamples in which path-integral and diffusion Monte Carlo fail to do so. However, most adiabatic optimization algorithms, such as for solving MAX-k -SAT problems, use k -local Hamiltonians, whereas our previous counterexample for diffusion Monte Carlo involved n -body interactions. Here we present a 6-local counterexample which demonstrates that even for these local Hamiltonians there are cases where diffusion Monte Carlo cannot efficiently simulate quantum adiabatic optimization. Furthermore, we perform empirical testing of diffusion Monte Carlo on a standard well-studied class of permutation-symmetric tunneling problems and similarly find large advantages for quantum optimization over diffusion Monte Carlo.
Monte Carlo learning/biasing experiment with intelligent random numbers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Booth, T.E.
1985-01-01
A Monte Carlo learning and biasing technique is described that does its learning and biasing in the random number space rather than the physical phase-space. The technique is probably applicable to all linear Monte Carlo problems, but no proof is provided here. Instead, the technique is illustrated with a simple Monte Carlo transport problem. Problems encountered, problems solved, and speculations about future progress are discussed. 12 refs
Discrete diffusion Monte Carlo for frequency-dependent radiative transfer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Densmore, Jeffery D.; Thompson, Kelly G.; Urbatsch, Todd J.
2011-01-01
Discrete Diffusion Monte Carlo (DDMC) is a technique for increasing the efficiency of Implicit Monte Carlo radiative-transfer simulations. In this paper, we develop an extension of DDMC for frequency-dependent radiative transfer. We base our new DDMC method on a frequency integrated diffusion equation for frequencies below a specified threshold. Above this threshold we employ standard Monte Carlo. With a frequency-dependent test problem, we confirm the increased efficiency of our new DDMC technique. (author)
Monte Carlo criticality analysis for dissolvers with neutron poison
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, Deshun; Dong, Xiufang; Pu, Fuxiang.
1987-01-01
Criticality analysis for dissolvers with neutron poison is given on the basis of Monte Carlo method. In Monte Carlo calculations of thermal neutron group parameters for fuel pieces, neutron transport length is determined in terms of maximum cross section approach. A set of related effective multiplication factors (K eff ) are calculated by Monte Carlo method for the three cases. Related numerical results are quite useful for the design and operation of this kind of dissolver in the criticality safety analysis. (author)
Temperature variance study in Monte-Carlo photon transport theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Giorla, J.
1985-10-01
We study different Monte-Carlo methods for solving radiative transfer problems, and particularly Fleck's Monte-Carlo method. We first give the different time-discretization schemes and the corresponding stability criteria. Then we write the temperature variance as a function of the variances of temperature and absorbed energy at the previous time step. Finally we obtain some stability criteria for the Monte-Carlo method in the stationary case [fr
Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC)
Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef
2016-01-06
We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC method is both a stochastic version of the combination technique introduced by Zenger, Griebel and collaborators and an extension of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method first described by Heinrich and Giles. Inspired by Giles s seminal work, instead of using first-order differences as in MLMC, we use in MIMC high-order mixed differences to reduce the variance of the hierarchical differences dramatically. Under standard assumptions on the convergence rates of the weak error, variance and work per sample, the optimal index set turns out to be of Total Degree (TD) type. When using such sets, MIMC yields new and improved complexity results, which are natural generalizations of Giles s MLMC analysis, and which increase the domain of problem parameters for which we achieve the optimal convergence, O(TOL-2).
Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC)
Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC method is both a stochastic version of the combination technique introduced by Zenger, Griebel and collaborators and an extension of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method first described by Heinrich and Giles. Inspired by Giles s seminal work, instead of using first-order differences as in MLMC, we use in MIMC high-order mixed differences to reduce the variance of the hierarchical differences dramatically. Under standard assumptions on the convergence rates of the weak error, variance and work per sample, the optimal index set turns out to be of Total Degree (TD) type. When using such sets, MIMC yields new and improved complexity results, which are natural generalizations of Giles s MLMC analysis, and which increase the domain of problem parameters for which we achieve the optimal convergence, O(TOL-2).
Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC)
Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul
2015-01-01
We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC method is both a stochastic version of the combination technique introduced by Zenger, Griebel and collaborators and an extension of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method first described by Heinrich and Giles. Inspired by Giles’s seminal work, instead of using first-order differences as in MLMC, we use in MIMC high-order mixed differences to reduce the variance of the hierarchical differences dramatically. Under standard assumptions on the convergence rates of the weak error, variance and work per sample, the optimal index set turns out to be of Total Degree (TD) type. When using such sets, MIMC yields new and improved complexity results, which are natural generalizations of Giles’s MLMC analysis, and which increase the domain of problem parameters for which we achieve the optimal convergence.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohta, Shigemi
1996-01-01
The Self-Test Monte Carlo (STMC) method resolves the main problems in using algebraic pseudo-random numbers for Monte Carlo (MC) calculations: that they can interfere with MC algorithms and lead to erroneous results, and that such an error often cannot be detected without known exact solution. STMC is based on good randomness of about 10 10 bits available from physical noise or transcendental numbers like π = 3.14---. Various bit modifiers are available to get more bits for applications that demands more than 10 10 random bits such as lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). These modifiers are designed so that a) each of them gives a bit sequence comparable in randomness as the original if used separately from each other, and b) their mutual interference when used jointly in a single MC calculation is adjustable. Intermediate data of the MC calculation itself are used to quantitatively test and adjust the mutual interference of the modifiers in respect of the MC algorithm. STMC is free of systematic error and gives reliable statistical error. Also it can be easily implemented on vector and parallel supercomputers. (author)
Algorithms for Monte Carlo calculations with fermions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weingarten, D.
1985-01-01
We describe a fermion Monte Carlo algorithm due to Petcher and the present author and another due to Fucito, Marinari, Parisi and Rebbi. For the first algorithm we estimate the number of arithmetic operations required to evaluate a vacuum expectation value grows as N 11 /msub(q) on an N 4 lattice with fixed periodicity in physical units and renormalized quark mass msub(q). For the second algorithm the rate of growth is estimated to be N 8 /msub(q) 2 . Numerical experiments are presented comparing the two algorithms on a lattice of size 2 4 . With a hopping constant K of 0.15 and β of 4.0 we find the number of operations for the second algorithm is about 2.7 times larger than for the first and about 13 000 times larger than for corresponding Monte Carlo calculations with a pure gauge theory. An estimate is given for the number of operations required for more realistic calculations by each algorithm on a larger lattice. (orig.)
Quantum Monte Carlo for atoms and molecules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnett, R.N.
1989-11-01
The diffusion quantum Monte Carlo with fixed nodes (QMC) approach has been employed in studying energy-eigenstates for 1--4 electron systems. Previous work employing the diffusion QMC technique yielded energies of high quality for H 2 , LiH, Li 2 , and H 2 O. Here, the range of calculations with this new approach has been extended to include additional first-row atoms and molecules. In addition, improvements in the previously computed fixed-node energies of LiH, Li 2 , and H 2 O have been obtained using more accurate trial functions. All computations were performed within, but are not limited to, the Born-Oppenheimer approximation. In our computations, the effects of variation of Monte Carlo parameters on the QMC solution of the Schroedinger equation were studied extensively. These parameters include the time step, renormalization time and nodal structure. These studies have been very useful in determining which choices of such parameters will yield accurate QMC energies most efficiently. Generally, very accurate energies (90--100% of the correlation energy is obtained) have been computed with single-determinant trail functions multiplied by simple correlation functions. Improvements in accuracy should be readily obtained using more complex trial functions
Monte Carlo simulation of grain growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Blikstein
1999-07-01
Full Text Available Understanding and predicting grain growth in Metallurgy is meaningful. Monte Carlo methods have been used in computer simulations in many different fields of knowledge. Grain growth simulation using this method is especially attractive as the statistical behavior of the atoms is properly reproduced; microstructural evolution depends only on the real topology of the grains and not on any kind of geometric simplification. Computer simulation has the advantage of allowing the user to visualize graphically the procedures, even dynamically and in three dimensions. Single-phase alloy grain growth simulation was carried out by calculating the free energy of each atom in the lattice (with its present crystallographic orientation and comparing this value to another one calculated with a different random orientation. When the resulting free energy is lower or equal to the initial value, the new orientation replaces the former. The measure of time is the Monte Carlo Step (MCS, which involves a series of trials throughout the lattice. A very close relationship between experimental and theoretical values for the grain growth exponent (n was observed.
Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC)
Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef
2015-01-07
We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC method is both a stochastic version of the combination technique introduced by Zenger, Griebel and collaborators and an extension of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method first described by Heinrich and Giles. Inspired by Giles’s seminal work, instead of using first-order differences as in MLMC, we use in MIMC high-order mixed differences to reduce the variance of the hierarchical differences dramatically. Under standard assumptions on the convergence rates of the weak error, variance and work per sample, the optimal index set turns out to be of Total Degree (TD) type. When using such sets, MIMC yields new and improved complexity results, which are natural generalizations of Giles’s MLMC analysis, and which increase the domain of problem parameters for which we achieve the optimal convergence.
Parallel Monte Carlo Search for Hough Transform
Lopes, Raul H. C.; Franqueira, Virginia N. L.; Reid, Ivan D.; Hobson, Peter R.
2017-10-01
We investigate the problem of line detection in digital image processing and in special how state of the art algorithms behave in the presence of noise and whether CPU efficiency can be improved by the combination of a Monte Carlo Tree Search, hierarchical space decomposition, and parallel computing. The starting point of the investigation is the method introduced in 1962 by Paul Hough for detecting lines in binary images. Extended in the 1970s to the detection of space forms, what came to be known as Hough Transform (HT) has been proposed, for example, in the context of track fitting in the LHC ATLAS and CMS projects. The Hough Transform transfers the problem of line detection, for example, into one of optimization of the peak in a vote counting process for cells which contain the possible points of candidate lines. The detection algorithm can be computationally expensive both in the demands made upon the processor and on memory. Additionally, it can have a reduced effectiveness in detection in the presence of noise. Our first contribution consists in an evaluation of the use of a variation of the Radon Transform as a form of improving theeffectiveness of line detection in the presence of noise. Then, parallel algorithms for variations of the Hough Transform and the Radon Transform for line detection are introduced. An algorithm for Parallel Monte Carlo Search applied to line detection is also introduced. Their algorithmic complexities are discussed. Finally, implementations on multi-GPU and multicore architectures are discussed.
Monte Carlo simulation for radiographic applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tillack, G.R.; Bellon, C.
2003-01-01
Standard radiography simulators are based on the attenuation law complemented by built-up-factors (BUF) to describe the interaction of radiation with material. The assumption of BUF implies that scattered radiation reduces only the contrast in radiographic images. This simplification holds for a wide range of applications like weld inspection as known from practical experience. But only a detailed description of the different underlying interaction mechanisms is capable to explain effects like mottling or others that every radiographer has experienced in practice. The application of Monte Carlo models is capable to handle primary and secondary interaction mechanisms contributing to the image formation process like photon interactions (absorption, incoherent and coherent scattering including electron-binding effects, pair production) and electron interactions (electron tracing including X-Ray fluorescence and Bremsstrahlung production). It opens up possibilities like the separation of influencing factors and the understanding of the functioning of intensifying screen used in film radiography. The paper discusses the opportunities in applying the Monte Carlo method to investigate special features in radiography in terms of selected examples. (orig.) [de
Reactor perturbation calculations by Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gubbins, M.E.
1965-09-01
Whilst Monte Carlo methods are useful for reactor calculations involving complicated geometry, it is difficult to apply them to the calculation of perturbation worths because of the large amount of computing time needed to obtain good accuracy. Various ways of overcoming these difficulties are investigated in this report, with the problem of estimating absorbing control rod worths particularly in mind. As a basis for discussion a method of carrying out multigroup reactor calculations by Monte Carlo methods is described. Two methods of estimating a perturbation worth directly, without differencing two quantities of like magnitude, are examined closely but are passed over in favour of a third method based on a correlation technique. This correlation method is described, and demonstrated by a limited range of calculations for absorbing control rods in a fast reactor. In these calculations control rod worths of between 1% and 7% in reactivity are estimated to an accuracy better than 10% (3 standard errors) in about one hour's computing time on the English Electric KDF.9 digital computer. (author)
Odd-flavor Simulations by the Hybrid Monte Carlo
Takaishi, Tetsuya; Takaishi, Tetsuya; De Forcrand, Philippe
2001-01-01
The standard hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is known to simulate even flavors QCD only. Simulations of odd flavors QCD, however, can be also performed in the framework of the hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm where the inverse of the fermion matrix is approximated by a polynomial. In this exploratory study we perform three flavors QCD simulations. We make a comparison of the hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm and the R-algorithm which also simulates odd flavors systems but has step-size errors. We find that results from our hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm are in agreement with those from the R-algorithm obtained at very small step-size.
Wielandt acceleration for MCNP5 Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, F.
2007-01-01
Monte Carlo criticality calculations use the power iteration method to determine the eigenvalue (k eff ) and eigenfunction (fission source distribution) of the fundamental mode. A recently proposed method for accelerating convergence of the Monte Carlo power iteration using Wielandt's method has been implemented in a test version of MCNP5. The method is shown to provide dramatic improvements in convergence rates and to greatly reduce the possibility of false convergence assessment. The method is effective and efficient, improving the Monte Carlo figure-of-merit for many problems. In addition, the method should eliminate most of the underprediction bias in confidence intervals for Monte Carlo criticality calculations. (authors)
Monte Carlo shielding analyses using an automated biasing procedure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tang, J.S.; Hoffman, T.J.
1988-01-01
A systematic and automated approach for biasing Monte Carlo shielding calculations is described. In particular, adjoint fluxes from a one-dimensional discrete ordinates calculation are used to generate biasing parameters for a Monte Carlo calculation. The entire procedure of adjoint calculation, biasing parameters generation, and Monte Carlo calculation has been automated. The automated biasing procedure has been applied to several realistic deep-penetration shipping cask problems. The results obtained for neutron and gamma-ray transport indicate that with the automated biasing procedure Monte Carlo shielding calculations of spent-fuel casks can be easily performed with minimum effort and that accurate results can be obtained at reasonable computing cost
Igo - A Monte Carlo Code For Radiotherapy Planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goldstein, M.; Regev, D.
1999-01-01
The goal of radiation therapy is to deliver a lethal dose to the tumor, while minimizing the dose to normal tissues and vital organs. To carry out this task, it is critical to calculate correctly the 3-D dose delivered. Monte Carlo transport methods (especially the Adjoint Monte Carlo have the potential to provide more accurate predictions of the 3-D dose the currently used methods. IG0 is a Monte Carlo code derived from the general Monte Carlo Program - MCNP, tailored specifically for calculating the effects of radiation therapy. This paper describes the IG0 transport code, the PIG0 interface and some preliminary results
Quantum statistical Monte Carlo methods and applications to spin systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suzuki, M.
1986-01-01
A short review is given concerning the quantum statistical Monte Carlo method based on the equivalence theorem that d-dimensional quantum systems are mapped onto (d+1)-dimensional classical systems. The convergence property of this approximate tansformation is discussed in detail. Some applications of this general appoach to quantum spin systems are reviewed. A new Monte Carlo method, ''thermo field Monte Carlo method,'' is presented, which is an extension of the projection Monte Carlo method at zero temperature to that at finite temperatures
Variational Variance Reduction for Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Densmore, Jeffery D.; Larsen, Edward W.
2001-01-01
A new variational variance reduction (VVR) method for Monte Carlo criticality calculations was developed. This method employs (a) a variational functional that is more accurate than the standard direct functional, (b) a representation of the deterministically obtained adjoint flux that is especially accurate for optically thick problems with high scattering ratios, and (c) estimates of the forward flux obtained by Monte Carlo. The VVR method requires no nonanalog Monte Carlo biasing, but it may be used in conjunction with Monte Carlo biasing schemes. Some results are presented from a class of criticality calculations involving alternating arrays of fuel and moderator regions
Applications of the Monte Carlo method in radiation protection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kulkarni, R.N.; Prasad, M.A.
1999-01-01
This paper gives a brief introduction to the application of the Monte Carlo method in radiation protection. It may be noted that an exhaustive review has not been attempted. The special advantage of the Monte Carlo method has been first brought out. The fundamentals of the Monte Carlo method have next been explained in brief, with special reference to two applications in radiation protection. Some sample current applications have been reported in the end in brief as examples. They are, medical radiation physics, microdosimetry, calculations of thermoluminescence intensity and probabilistic safety analysis. The limitations of the Monte Carlo method have also been mentioned in passing. (author)
Perturbation based Monte Carlo criticality search in density, enrichment and concentration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Zeguang; Wang, Kan; Deng, Jingkang
2015-01-01
Highlights: • A new perturbation based Monte Carlo criticality search method is proposed. • The method could get accurate results with only one individual criticality run. • The method is used to solve density, enrichment and concentration search problems. • Results show the feasibility and good performances of this method. • The relationship between results’ accuracy and perturbation order is discussed. - Abstract: Criticality search is a very important aspect in reactor physics analysis. Due to the advantages of Monte Carlo method and the development of computer technologies, Monte Carlo criticality search is becoming more and more necessary and feasible. Existing Monte Carlo criticality search methods need large amount of individual criticality runs and may have unstable results because of the uncertainties of criticality results. In this paper, a new perturbation based Monte Carlo criticality search method is proposed and discussed. This method only needs one individual criticality calculation with perturbation tallies to estimate k eff changing function using initial k eff and differential coefficients results, and solves polynomial equations to get the criticality search results. The new perturbation based Monte Carlo criticality search method is implemented in the Monte Carlo code RMC, and criticality search problems in density, enrichment and concentration are taken out. Results show that this method is quite inspiring in accuracy and efficiency, and has advantages compared with other criticality search methods
Clinical dosimetry in photon radiotherapy. A Monte Carlo based investigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wulff, Joerg
2010-01-01
Practical clinical dosimetry is a fundamental step within the radiation therapy process and aims at quantifying the absorbed radiation dose within a 1-2% uncertainty. To achieve this level of accuracy, corrections are needed for calibrated and air-filled ionization chambers, which are used for dose measurement. The procedures of correction are based on cavity theory of Spencer-Attix and are defined in current dosimetry protocols. Energy dependent corrections for deviations from calibration beams account for changed ionization chamber response in the treatment beam. The corrections applied are usually based on semi-analytical models or measurements and are generally hard to determine due to their magnitude of only a few percents or even less. Furthermore the corrections are defined for fixed geometrical reference-conditions and do not apply to non-reference conditions in modern radiotherapy applications. The stochastic Monte Carlo method for the simulation of radiation transport is becoming a valuable tool in the field of Medical Physics. As a suitable tool for calculation of these corrections with high accuracy the simulations enable the investigation of ionization chambers under various conditions. The aim of this work is the consistent investigation of ionization chamber dosimetry in photon radiation therapy with the use of Monte Carlo methods. Nowadays Monte Carlo systems exist, which enable the accurate calculation of ionization chamber response in principle. Still, their bare use for studies of this type is limited due to the long calculation times needed for a meaningful result with a small statistical uncertainty, inherent to every result of a Monte Carlo simulation. Besides heavy use of computer hardware, techniques methods of variance reduction to reduce the needed calculation time can be applied. Methods for increasing the efficiency in the results of simulation were developed and incorporated in a modern and established Monte Carlo simulation environment
Data Analysis Recipes: Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Hogg, David W.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel
2018-05-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data. In this primarily pedagogical contribution, we give a brief overview of the most basic MCMC method and some practical advice for the use of MCMC in real inference problems. We give advice on method choice, tuning for performance, methods for initialization, tests of convergence, troubleshooting, and use of the chain output to produce or report parameter estimates with associated uncertainties. We argue that autocorrelation time is the most important test for convergence, as it directly connects to the uncertainty on the sampling estimate of any quantity of interest. We emphasize that sampling is a method for doing integrals; this guides our thinking about how MCMC output is best used. .
Response decomposition with Monte Carlo correlated coupling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ueki, T.; Hoogenboom, J.E.; Kloosterman, J.L.
2001-01-01
Particle histories that contribute to a detector response are categorized according to whether they are fully confined inside a source-detector enclosure or cross and recross the same enclosure. The contribution from the confined histories is expressed using a forward problem with the external boundary condition on the source-detector enclosure. The contribution from the crossing and recrossing histories is expressed as the surface integral at the same enclosure of the product of the directional cosine and the fluxes in the foregoing forward problem and the adjoint problem for the whole spatial domain. The former contribution can be calculated by a standard forward Monte Carlo. The latter contribution can be calculated by correlated coupling of forward and adjoint histories independently of the former contribution. We briefly describe the computational method and discuss its application to perturbation analysis for localized material changes. (orig.)
Response decomposition with Monte Carlo correlated coupling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ueki, T.; Hoogenboom, J.E.; Kloosterman, J.L. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands). Interfaculty Reactor Inst.
2001-07-01
Particle histories that contribute to a detector response are categorized according to whether they are fully confined inside a source-detector enclosure or cross and recross the same enclosure. The contribution from the confined histories is expressed using a forward problem with the external boundary condition on the source-detector enclosure. The contribution from the crossing and recrossing histories is expressed as the surface integral at the same enclosure of the product of the directional cosine and the fluxes in the foregoing forward problem and the adjoint problem for the whole spatial domain. The former contribution can be calculated by a standard forward Monte Carlo. The latter contribution can be calculated by correlated coupling of forward and adjoint histories independently of the former contribution. We briefly describe the computational method and discuss its application to perturbation analysis for localized material changes. (orig.)
Monte Carlo simulations of low background detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miley, H.S.; Brodzinski, R.L.; Hensley, W.K.; Reeves, J.H.
1995-01-01
An implementation of the Electron Gamma Shower 4 code (EGS4) has been developed to allow convenient simulation of typical gamma ray measurement systems. Coincidence gamma rays, beta spectra, and angular correlations have been added to adequately simulate a complete nuclear decay and provide corrections to experimentally determined detector efficiencies. This code has been used to strip certain low-background spectra for the purpose of extremely low-level assay. Monte Carlo calculations of this sort can be extremely successful since low background detectors are usually free of significant contributions from poorly localized radiation sources, such as cosmic muons, secondary cosmic neutrons, and radioactive construction or shielding materials. Previously, validation of this code has been obtained from a series of comparisons between measurements and blind calculations. An example of the application of this code to an exceedingly low background spectrum stripping will be presented. (author) 5 refs.; 3 figs.; 1 tab
Homogenized group cross sections by Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Der Marck, S. C.; Kuijper, J. C.; Oppe, J.
2006-01-01
Homogenized group cross sections play a large role in making reactor calculations efficient. Because of this significance, many codes exist that can calculate these cross sections based on certain assumptions. However, the application to the High Flux Reactor (HFR) in Petten, the Netherlands, the limitations of such codes imply that the core calculations would become less accurate when using homogenized group cross sections (HGCS). Therefore we developed a method to calculate HGCS based on a Monte Carlo program, for which we chose MCNP. The implementation involves an addition to MCNP, and a set of small executables to perform suitable averaging after the MCNP run(s) have completed. Here we briefly describe the details of the method, and we report on two tests we performed to show the accuracy of the method and its implementation. By now, this method is routinely used in preparation of the cycle to cycle core calculations for HFR. (authors)
Nuclear reactions in Monte Carlo codes
Ferrari, Alfredo
2002-01-01
The physics foundations of hadronic interactions as implemented in most Monte Carlo codes are presented together with a few practical examples. The description of the relevant physics is presented schematically split into the major steps in order to stress the different approaches required for the full understanding of nuclear reactions at intermediate and high energies. Due to the complexity of the problem, only a few semi-qualitative arguments are developed in this paper. The description will be necessarily schematic and somewhat incomplete, but hopefully it will be useful for a first introduction into this topic. Examples are shown mostly for the high energy regime, where all mechanisms mentioned in the paper are at work and to which perhaps most of the readers are less accustomed. Examples for lower energies can be found in the references. (43 refs) .
Angular biasing in implicit Monte-Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zimmerman, G.B.
1994-01-01
Calculations of indirect drive Inertial Confinement Fusion target experiments require an integrated approach in which laser irradiation and radiation transport in the hohlraum are solved simultaneously with the symmetry, implosion and burn of the fuel capsule. The Implicit Monte Carlo method has proved to be a valuable tool for the two dimensional radiation transport within the hohlraum, but the impact of statistical noise on the symmetric implosion of the small fuel capsule is difficult to overcome. We present an angular biasing technique in which an increased number of low weight photons are directed at the imploding capsule. For typical parameters this reduces the required computer time for an integrated calculation by a factor of 10. An additional factor of 5 can also be achieved by directing even smaller weight photons at the polar regions of the capsule where small mass zones are most sensitive to statistical noise
An accurate nonlinear Monte Carlo collision operator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, W.X.; Okamoto, M.; Nakajima, N.; Murakami, S.
1995-03-01
A three dimensional nonlinear Monte Carlo collision model is developed based on Coulomb binary collisions with the emphasis both on the accuracy and implementation efficiency. The operator of simple form fulfills particle number, momentum and energy conservation laws, and is equivalent to exact Fokker-Planck operator by correctly reproducing the friction coefficient and diffusion tensor, in addition, can effectively assure small-angle collisions with a binary scattering angle distributed in a limited range near zero. Two highly vectorizable algorithms are designed for its fast implementation. Various test simulations regarding relaxation processes, electrical conductivity, etc. are carried out in velocity space. The test results, which is in good agreement with theory, and timing results on vector computers show that it is practically applicable. The operator may be used for accurately simulating collisional transport problems in magnetized and unmagnetized plasmas. (author)
Computation cluster for Monte Carlo calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petriska, M.; Vitazek, K.; Farkas, G.; Stacho, M.; Michalek, S.
2010-01-01
Two computation clusters based on Rocks Clusters 5.1 Linux distribution with Intel Core Duo and Intel Core Quad based computers were made at the Department of the Nuclear Physics and Technology. Clusters were used for Monte Carlo calculations, specifically for MCNP calculations applied in Nuclear reactor core simulations. Optimization for computation speed was made on hardware and software basis. Hardware cluster parameters, such as size of the memory, network speed, CPU speed, number of processors per computation, number of processors in one computer were tested for shortening the calculation time. For software optimization, different Fortran compilers, MPI implementations and CPU multi-core libraries were tested. Finally computer cluster was used in finding the weighting functions of neutron ex-core detectors of VVER-440. (authors)
Monte Carlo stratified source-sampling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blomquist, R.N.; Gelbard, E.M.
1997-01-01
In 1995, at a conference on criticality safety, a special session was devoted to the Monte Carlo open-quotes eigenvalue of the worldclose quotes problem. Argonne presented a paper, at that session, in which the anomalies originally observed in that problem were reproduced in a much simplified model-problem configuration, and removed by a version of stratified source-sampling. The original test-problem was treated by a special code designed specifically for that purpose. Recently ANL started work on a method for dealing with more realistic eigenvalue of the world configurations, and has been incorporating this method into VIM. The original method has been modified to take into account real-world statistical noise sources not included in the model problem. This paper constitutes a status report on work still in progress
Monte Carlo simulation of a CZT detector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chun, Sung Dae; Park, Se Hwan; Ha, Jang Ho; Kim, Han Soo; Cho, Yoon Ho; Kang, Sang Mook; Kim, Yong Kyun; Hong, Duk Geun
2008-01-01
CZT detector is one of the most promising radiation detectors for hard X-ray and γ-ray measurement. The energy spectrum of CZT detector has to be simulated to optimize the detector design. A CZT detector was fabricated with dimensions of 5x5x2 mm 3 . A Peltier cooler with a size of 40x40 mm 2 was installed below the fabricated CZT detector to reduce the operation temperature of the detector. Energy spectra of were measured with 59.5 keV γ-ray from 241 Am. A Monte Carlo code was developed to simulate the CZT energy spectrum, which was measured with a planar-type CZT detector, and the result was compared with the measured one. The simulation was extended to the CZT detector with strip electrodes. (author)
Vectorization of Monte Carlo particle transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burns, P.J.; Christon, M.; Schweitzer, R.; Lubeck, O.M.; Wasserman, H.J.; Simmons, M.L.; Pryor, D.V.
1989-01-01
This paper reports that fully vectorized versions of the Los Alamos National Laboratory benchmark code Gamteb, a Monte Carlo photon transport algorithm, were developed for the Cyber 205/ETA-10 and Cray X-MP/Y-MP architectures. Single-processor performance measurements of the vector and scalar implementations were modeled in a modified Amdahl's Law that accounts for additional data motion in the vector code. The performance and implementation strategy of the vector codes are related to architectural features of each machine. Speedups between fifteen and eighteen for Cyber 205/ETA-10 architectures, and about nine for CRAY X-MP/Y-MP architectures are observed. The best single processor execution time for the problem was 0.33 seconds on the ETA-10G, and 0.42 seconds on the CRAY Y-MP
Computation cluster for Monte Carlo calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Petriska, M.; Vitazek, K.; Farkas, G.; Stacho, M.; Michalek, S. [Dep. Of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information, Technology, Slovak Technical University, Ilkovicova 3, 81219 Bratislava (Slovakia)
2010-07-01
Two computation clusters based on Rocks Clusters 5.1 Linux distribution with Intel Core Duo and Intel Core Quad based computers were made at the Department of the Nuclear Physics and Technology. Clusters were used for Monte Carlo calculations, specifically for MCNP calculations applied in Nuclear reactor core simulations. Optimization for computation speed was made on hardware and software basis. Hardware cluster parameters, such as size of the memory, network speed, CPU speed, number of processors per computation, number of processors in one computer were tested for shortening the calculation time. For software optimization, different Fortran compilers, MPI implementations and CPU multi-core libraries were tested. Finally computer cluster was used in finding the weighting functions of neutron ex-core detectors of VVER-440. (authors)
Monte Carlo calculations of channeling radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bloom, S.D.; Berman, B.L.; Hamilton, D.C.; Alguard, M.J.; Barrett, J.H.; Datz, S.; Pantell, R.H.; Swent, R.H.
1981-01-01
Results of classical Monte Carlo calculations are presented for the radiation produced by ultra-relativistic positrons incident in a direction parallel to the (110) plane of Si in the energy range 30 to 100 MeV. The results all show the characteristic CR(channeling radiation) peak in the energy range 20 keV to 100 keV. Plots of the centroid energies, widths, and total yields of the CR peaks as a function of energy show the power law dependences of γ 1 5 , γ 1 7 , and γ 2 5 respectively. Except for the centroid energies and power-law dependence is only approximate. Agreement with experimental data is good for the centroid energies and only rough for the widths. Adequate experimental data for verifying the yield dependence on γ does not yet exist
Monte Carlo simulation of neutron scattering instruments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seeger, P.A.; Daemen, L.L.; Hjelm, R.P. Jr.
1998-01-01
A code package consisting of the Monte Carlo Library MCLIB, the executing code MC RUN, the web application MC Web, and various ancillary codes is proposed as an open standard for simulation of neutron scattering instruments. The architecture of the package includes structures to define surfaces, regions, and optical elements contained in regions. A particle is defined by its vector position and velocity, its time of flight, its mass and charge, and a polarization vector. The MC RUN code handles neutron transport and bookkeeping, while the action on the neutron within any region is computed using algorithms that may be deterministic, probabilistic, or a combination. Complete versatility is possible because the existing library may be supplemented by any procedures a user is able to code. Some examples are shown
Monte Carlo simulation of the ARGO
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Depaola, G.O.
1997-01-01
We use GEANT Monte Carlo code to design an outline of the geometry and simulate the performance of the Argentine gamma-ray observer (ARGO), a telescope based on silicon strip detector technlogy. The γ-ray direction is determined by geometrical means and the angular resolution is calculated for small variations of the basic design. The results show that the angular resolutions vary from a few degrees at low energies (∝50 MeV) to 0.2 , approximately, at high energies (>500 MeV). We also made simulations using as incoming γ-ray the energy spectrum of PKS0208-512 and PKS0528+134 quasars. Moreover, a method based on multiple scattering theory is also used to determine the incoming energy. We show that this method is applicable to energy spectrum. (orig.)
Variational Monte Carlo study of pentaquark states
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mark W. Paris
2005-07-01
Accurate numerical solution of the five-body Schrodinger equation is effected via variational Monte Carlo. The spectrum is assumed to exhibit a narrow resonance with strangeness S=+1. A fully antisymmetrized and pair-correlated five-quark wave function is obtained for the assumed non-relativistic Hamiltonian which has spin, isospin, and color dependent pair interactions and many-body confining terms which are fixed by the non-exotic spectra. Gauge field dynamics are modeled via flux tube exchange factors. The energy determined for the ground states with J=1/2 and negative (positive) parity is 2.22 GeV (2.50 GeV). A lower energy negative parity state is consistent with recent lattice results. The short-range structure of the state is analyzed via its diquark content.
Geometric Monte Carlo and black Janus geometries
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bak, Dongsu, E-mail: dsbak@uos.ac.kr [Physics Department, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504 (Korea, Republic of); B.W. Lee Center for Fields, Gravity & Strings, Institute for Basic Sciences, Daejeon 34047 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chanju, E-mail: cjkim@ewha.ac.kr [Department of Physics, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kyung Kiu, E-mail: kimkyungkiu@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Sejong University, Seoul 05006 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Physics, College of Science, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722 (Korea, Republic of); Min, Hyunsoo, E-mail: hsmin@uos.ac.kr [Physics Department, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504 (Korea, Republic of); Song, Jeong-Pil, E-mail: jeong_pil_song@brown.edu [Department of Chemistry, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)
2017-04-10
We describe an application of the Monte Carlo method to the Janus deformation of the black brane background. We present numerical results for three and five dimensional black Janus geometries with planar and spherical interfaces. In particular, we argue that the 5D geometry with a spherical interface has an application in understanding the finite temperature bag-like QCD model via the AdS/CFT correspondence. The accuracy and convergence of the algorithm are evaluated with respect to the grid spacing. The systematic errors of the method are determined using an exact solution of 3D black Janus. This numerical approach for solving linear problems is unaffected initial guess of a trial solution and can handle an arbitrary geometry under various boundary conditions in the presence of source fields.
Radiation Modeling with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo
Carlson, Ann B.; Hassan, H. A.
1991-01-01
Improvements in the modeling of radiation in low density shock waves with direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are the subject of this study. A new scheme to determine the relaxation collision numbers for excitation of electronic states is proposed. This scheme attempts to move the DSMC programs toward a more detailed modeling of the physics and more reliance on available rate data. The new method is compared with the current modeling technique and both techniques are compared with available experimental data. The differences in the results are evaluated. The test case is based on experimental measurements from the AVCO-Everett Research Laboratory electric arc-driven shock tube of a normal shock wave in air at 10 km/s and .1 Torr. The new method agrees with the available data as well as the results from the earlier scheme and is more easily extrapolated to di erent ow conditions.
Monte Carlo work at Argonne National Laboratory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gelbard, E.M.; Prael, R.E.
1974-01-01
A simple model of the Monte Carlo process is described and a (nonlinear) recursion relation between fission sources in successive generations is developed. From the linearized form of these recursion relations, it is possible to derive expressions for the mean square coefficients of error modes in the iterates and for correlation coefficients between fluctuations in successive generations. First-order nonlinear terms in the recursion relation are analyzed. From these nonlinear terms an expression for the bias in the eigenvalue estimator is derived, and prescriptions for measuring the bias are formulated. Plans for the development of the VIM code are reviewed, and the proposed treatment of small sample perturbations in VIM is described. 6 references. (U.S.)
Methods for Monte Carlo simulations of biomacromolecules.
Vitalis, Andreas; Pappu, Rohit V
2009-01-01
The state-of-the-art for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of biomacromolecules is reviewed. Available methodologies for sampling conformational equilibria and associations of biomacromolecules in the canonical ensemble, given a continuum description of the solvent environment, are reviewed. Detailed sections are provided dealing with the choice of degrees of freedom, the efficiencies of MC algorithms and algorithmic peculiarities, as well as the optimization of simple movesets. The issue of introducing correlations into elementary MC moves, and the applicability of such methods to simulations of biomacromolecules is discussed. A brief discussion of multicanonical methods and an overview of recent simulation work highlighting the potential of MC methods are also provided. It is argued that MC simulations, while underutilized biomacromolecular simulation community, hold promise for simulations of complex systems and phenomena that span multiple length scales, especially when used in conjunction with implicit solvation models or other coarse graining strategies.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo from Lagrangian Dynamics.
Lan, Shiwei; Stathopoulos, Vasileios; Shahbaba, Babak; Girolami, Mark
2015-04-01
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) improves the computational e ciency of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by reducing its random walk behavior. Riemannian HMC (RHMC) further improves the performance of HMC by exploiting the geometric properties of the parameter space. However, the geometric integrator used for RHMC involves implicit equations that require fixed-point iterations. In some cases, the computational overhead for solving implicit equations undermines RHMC's benefits. In an attempt to circumvent this problem, we propose an explicit integrator that replaces the momentum variable in RHMC by velocity. We show that the resulting transformation is equivalent to transforming Riemannian Hamiltonian dynamics to Lagrangian dynamics. Experimental results suggests that our method improves RHMC's overall computational e ciency in the cases considered. All computer programs and data sets are available online (http://www.ics.uci.edu/~babaks/Site/Codes.html) in order to allow replication of the results reported in this paper.
Monte Carlo modelling of TRIGA research reactor
El Bakkari, B.; Nacir, B.; El Bardouni, T.; El Younoussi, C.; Merroun, O.; Htet, A.; Boulaich, Y.; Zoubair, M.; Boukhal, H.; Chakir, M.
2010-10-01
The Moroccan 2 MW TRIGA MARK II research reactor at Centre des Etudes Nucléaires de la Maâmora (CENM) achieved initial criticality on May 2, 2007. The reactor is designed to effectively implement the various fields of basic nuclear research, manpower training, and production of radioisotopes for their use in agriculture, industry, and medicine. This study deals with the neutronic analysis of the 2-MW TRIGA MARK II research reactor at CENM and validation of the results by comparisons with the experimental, operational, and available final safety analysis report (FSAR) values. The study was prepared in collaboration between the Laboratory of Radiation and Nuclear Systems (ERSN-LMR) from Faculty of Sciences of Tetuan (Morocco) and CENM. The 3-D continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP (version 5) was used to develop a versatile and accurate full model of the TRIGA core. The model represents in detailed all components of the core with literally no physical approximation. Continuous energy cross-section data from the more recent nuclear data evaluations (ENDF/B-VI.8, ENDF/B-VII.0, JEFF-3.1, and JENDL-3.3) as well as S( α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions distributed with the MCNP code were used. The cross-section libraries were generated by using the NJOY99 system updated to its more recent patch file "up259". The consistency and accuracy of both the Monte Carlo simulation and neutron transport physics were established by benchmarking the TRIGA experiments. Core excess reactivity, total and integral control rods worth as well as power peaking factors were used in the validation process. Results of calculations are analysed and discussed.
PEPSI: a Monte Carlo generator for polarized leptoproduction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mankiewicz, L.
1992-01-01
We describe PEPSI (Polarized Electron Proton Scattering Interactions) a Monte Carlo program for the polarized deep inelastic leptoproduction mediated by electromagnetic interaction. The code is a modification of the LEPTO 4.3 Lund Monte Carlo for unpolarized scattering and requires the standard polarization-independent JETSET routines to perform fragmentation into final hadrons. (orig.)
Closed-shell variational quantum Monte Carlo simulation for the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Closed-shell variational quantum Monte Carlo simulation for the electric dipole moment calculation of hydrazine molecule using casino-code. ... Nigeria Journal of Pure and Applied Physics ... The variational quantum Monte Carlo (VQMC) technique used in this work employed the restricted Hartree-Fock (RHF) scheme.
Efficiency and accuracy of Monte Carlo (importance) sampling
Waarts, P.H.
2003-01-01
Monte Carlo Analysis is often regarded as the most simple and accurate reliability method. Be-sides it is the most transparent method. The only problem is the accuracy in correlation with the efficiency. Monte Carlo gets less efficient or less accurate when very low probabilities are to be computed
Exponential convergence on a continuous Monte Carlo transport problem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Booth, T.E.
1997-01-01
For more than a decade, it has been known that exponential convergence on discrete transport problems was possible using adaptive Monte Carlo techniques. An adaptive Monte Carlo method that empirically produces exponential convergence on a simple continuous transport problem is described
Multiple histogram method and static Monte Carlo sampling
Inda, M.A.; Frenkel, D.
2004-01-01
We describe an approach to use multiple-histogram methods in combination with static, biased Monte Carlo simulations. To illustrate this, we computed the force-extension curve of an athermal polymer from multiple histograms constructed in a series of static Rosenbluth Monte Carlo simulations. From
A Monte Carlo approach to combating delayed completion of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The objective of this paper is to unveil the relevance of Monte Carlo critical path analysis in resolving problem of delays in scheduled completion of development projects. Commencing with deterministic network scheduling, Monte Carlo critical path analysis was advanced by assigning probability distributions to task times.
Forest canopy BRDF simulation using Monte Carlo method
Huang, J.; Wu, B.; Zeng, Y.; Tian, Y.
2006-01-01
Monte Carlo method is a random statistic method, which has been widely used to simulate the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) of vegetation canopy in the field of visible remote sensing. The random process between photons and forest canopy was designed using Monte Carlo method.
New Approaches and Applications for Monte Carlo Perturbation Theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aufiero, Manuele; Bidaud, Adrien; Kotlyar, Dan; Leppänen, Jaakko; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Salvatores, Massimo; Sen, Sonat; Shwageraus, Eugene; Fratoni, Massimiliano
2017-02-01
This paper presents some of the recent and new advancements in the extension of Monte Carlo Perturbation Theory methodologies and application. In particular, the discussed problems involve Brunup calculation, perturbation calculation based on continuous energy functions, and Monte Carlo Perturbation Theory in loosely coupled systems.
A Monte Carlo algorithm for the Vavilov distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yi, Chul-Young; Han, Hyon-Soo
1999-01-01
Using the convolution property of the inverse Laplace transform, an improved Monte Carlo algorithm for the Vavilov energy-loss straggling distribution of the charged particle is developed, which is relatively simple and gives enough accuracy to be used for most Monte Carlo applications
Neutron point-flux calculation by Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eichhorn, M.
1986-04-01
A survey of the usual methods for estimating flux at a point is given. The associated variance-reducing techniques in direct Monte Carlo games are explained. The multigroup Monte Carlo codes MC for critical systems and PUNKT for point source-point detector-systems are represented, and problems in applying the codes to practical tasks are discussed. (author)
Crop canopy BRDF simulation and analysis using Monte Carlo method
Huang, J.; Wu, B.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, Y.
2006-01-01
This author designs the random process between photons and crop canopy. A Monte Carlo model has been developed to simulate the Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) of crop canopy. Comparing Monte Carlo model to MCRM model, this paper analyzes the variations of different LAD and
Monte Carlo codes use in neutron therapy; Application de codes Monte Carlo en neutrontherapie
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paquis, P.; Mokhtari, F.; Karamanoukian, D. [Hopital Pasteur, 06 - Nice (France); Pignol, J.P. [Hopital du Hasenrain, 68 - Mulhouse (France); Cuendet, P. [CEA Centre d' Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Reacteurs Nucleaires; Fares, G.; Hachem, A. [Faculte des Sciences, 06 - Nice (France); Iborra, N. [Centre Antoine-Lacassagne, 06 - Nice (France)
1998-04-01
Monte Carlo calculation codes allow to study accurately all the parameters relevant to radiation effects, like the dose deposition or the type of microscopic interactions, through one by one particle transport simulation. These features are very useful for neutron irradiations, from device development up to dosimetry. This paper illustrates some applications of these codes in Neutron Capture Therapy and Neutron Capture Enhancement of fast neutrons irradiations. (authors)
Baräo, Fernando; Nakagawa, Masayuki; Távora, Luis; Vaz, Pedro
2001-01-01
This book focusses on the state of the art of Monte Carlo methods in radiation physics and particle transport simulation and applications, the latter involving in particular, the use and development of electron--gamma, neutron--gamma and hadronic codes. Besides the basic theory and the methods employed, special attention is paid to algorithm development for modeling, and the analysis of experiments and measurements in a variety of fields ranging from particle to medical physics.
Monte Carlo Solutions for Blind Phase Noise Estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Çırpan Hakan
2009-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the use of Monte Carlo sampling methods for phase noise estimation on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN channels. The main contributions of the paper are (i the development of a Monte Carlo framework for phase noise estimation, with special attention to sequential importance sampling and Rao-Blackwellization, (ii the interpretation of existing Monte Carlo solutions within this generic framework, and (iii the derivation of a novel phase noise estimator. Contrary to the ad hoc phase noise estimators that have been proposed in the past, the estimators considered in this paper are derived from solid probabilistic and performance-determining arguments. Computer simulations demonstrate that, on one hand, the Monte Carlo phase noise estimators outperform the existing estimators and, on the other hand, our newly proposed solution exhibits a lower complexity than the existing Monte Carlo solutions.
Sampling from a polytope and hard-disk Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kapfer, Sebastian C; Krauth, Werner
2013-01-01
The hard-disk problem, the statics and the dynamics of equal two-dimensional hard spheres in a periodic box, has had a profound influence on statistical and computational physics. Markov-chain Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics were first discussed for this model. Here we reformulate hard-disk Monte Carlo algorithms in terms of another classic problem, namely the sampling from a polytope. Local Markov-chain Monte Carlo, as proposed by Metropolis et al. in 1953, appears as a sequence of random walks in high-dimensional polytopes, while the moves of the more powerful event-chain algorithm correspond to molecular dynamics evolution. We determine the convergence properties of Monte Carlo methods in a special invariant polytope associated with hard-disk configurations, and the implications for convergence of hard-disk sampling. Finally, we discuss parallelization strategies for event-chain Monte Carlo and present results for a multicore implementation
Linear filtering applied to Monte Carlo criticality calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morrison, G.W.; Pike, D.H.; Petrie, L.M.
1975-01-01
A significant improvement in the acceleration of the convergence of the eigenvalue computed by Monte Carlo techniques has been developed by applying linear filtering theory to Monte Carlo calculations for multiplying systems. A Kalman filter was applied to a KENO Monte Carlo calculation of an experimental critical system consisting of eight interacting units of fissile material. A comparison of the filter estimate and the Monte Carlo realization was made. The Kalman filter converged in five iterations to 0.9977. After 95 iterations, the average k-eff from the Monte Carlo calculation was 0.9981. This demonstrates that the Kalman filter has the potential of reducing the calculational effort of multiplying systems. Other examples and results are discussed
Problems in radiation shielding calculations with Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ueki, Kohtaro
1985-01-01
The Monte Carlo method is a very useful tool for solving a large class of radiation transport problem. In contrast with deterministic method, geometric complexity is a much less significant problem for Monte Carlo calculations. However, the accuracy of Monte Carlo calculations is of course, limited by statistical error of the quantities to be estimated. In this report, we point out some typical problems to solve a large shielding system including radiation streaming. The Monte Carlo coupling technique was developed to settle such a shielding problem accurately. However, the variance of the Monte Carlo results using the coupling technique of which detectors were located outside the radiation streaming, was still not enough. So as to bring on more accurate results for the detectors located outside the streaming and also for a multi-legged-duct streaming problem, a practicable way of ''Prism Scattering technique'' is proposed in the study. (author)
Cluster monte carlo method for nuclear criticality safety calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pei Lucheng
1984-01-01
One of the most important applications of the Monte Carlo method is the calculation of the nuclear criticality safety. The fair source game problem was presented at almost the same time as the Monte Carlo method was applied to calculating the nuclear criticality safety. The source iteration cost may be reduced as much as possible or no need for any source iteration. This kind of problems all belongs to the fair source game prolems, among which, the optimal source game is without any source iteration. Although the single neutron Monte Carlo method solved the problem without the source iteration, there is still quite an apparent shortcoming in it, that is, it solves the problem without the source iteration only in the asymptotic sense. In this work, a new Monte Carlo method called the cluster Monte Carlo method is given to solve the problem further
Hybrid SN/Monte Carlo research and results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baker, R.S.
1993-01-01
The neutral particle transport equation is solved by a hybrid method that iteratively couples regions where deterministic (S N ) and stochastic (Monte Carlo) methods are applied. The Monte Carlo and S N regions are fully coupled in the sense that no assumption is made about geometrical separation or decoupling. The hybrid Monte Carlo/S N method provides a new means of solving problems involving both optically thick and optically thin regions that neither Monte Carlo nor S N is well suited for by themselves. The hybrid method has been successfully applied to realistic shielding problems. The vectorized Monte Carlo algorithm in the hybrid method has been ported to the massively parallel architecture of the Connection Machine. Comparisons of performance on a vector machine (Cray Y-MP) and the Connection Machine (CM-2) show that significant speedups are obtainable for vectorized Monte Carlo algorithms on massively parallel machines, even when realistic problems requiring variance reduction are considered. However, the architecture of the Connection Machine does place some limitations on the regime in which the Monte Carlo algorithm may be expected to perform well
Parallel computing by Monte Carlo codes MVP/GMVP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagaya, Yasunobu; Nakagawa, Masayuki; Mori, Takamasa
2001-01-01
General-purpose Monte Carlo codes MVP/GMVP are well-vectorized and thus enable us to perform high-speed Monte Carlo calculations. In order to achieve more speedups, we parallelized the codes on the different types of parallel computing platforms or by using a standard parallelization library MPI. The platforms used for benchmark calculations are a distributed-memory vector-parallel computer Fujitsu VPP500, a distributed-memory massively parallel computer Intel paragon and a distributed-memory scalar-parallel computer Hitachi SR2201, IBM SP2. As mentioned generally, linear speedup could be obtained for large-scale problems but parallelization efficiency decreased as the batch size per a processing element(PE) was smaller. It was also found that the statistical uncertainty for assembly powers was less than 0.1% by the PWR full-core calculation with more than 10 million histories and it took about 1.5 hours by massively parallel computing. (author)
Flow in Random Microstructures: a Multilevel Monte Carlo Approach
Icardi, Matteo
2016-01-06
In this work we are interested in the fast estimation of effective parameters of random heterogeneous materials using Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is an efficient and flexible solution for the propagation of uncertainties in complex models, where an explicit parametrisation of the input randomness is not available or too expensive. We propose a general-purpose algorithm and computational code for the solution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) on random heterogeneous materials. We make use of the key idea of MLMC, based on different discretization levels, extending it in a more general context, making use of a hierarchy of physical resolution scales, solvers, models and other numerical/geometrical discretisation parameters. Modifications of the classical MLMC estimators are proposed to further reduce variance in cases where analytical convergence rates and asymptotic regimes are not available. Spheres, ellipsoids and general convex-shaped grains are placed randomly in the domain with different placing/packing algorithms and the effective properties of the heterogeneous medium are computed. These are, for example, effective diffusivities, conductivities, and reaction rates. The implementation of the Monte-Carlo estimators, the statistical samples and each single solver is done efficiently in parallel. The method is tested and applied for pore-scale simulations of random sphere packings.
Monte Carlo analysis of Musashi TRIGA mark II reactor core
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsumoto, Tetsuo
1999-01-01
The analysis of the TRIGA-II core at the Musashi Institute of Technology Research Reactor (Musashi reactor, 100 kW) was performed by the three-dimensional continuous-energy Monte Carlo code (MCNP4A). Effective multiplication factors (k eff ) for the several fuel-loading patterns including the initial core criticality experiment, the fuel element and control rod reactivity worth as well as the neutron flux measurements were used in the validation process of the physical model and neutron cross section data from the ENDF/B-V evaluation. The calculated k eff overestimated the experimental data by about 1.0%Δk/k for both the initial core and the several fuel-loading arrangements. The calculated reactivity worths of control rod and fuel element agree well the measured ones within the uncertainties. The comparison of neutron flux distribution was consistent with the experimental ones which were measured by activation methods at the sample irradiation tubes. All in all, the agreement between the MCNP predictions and the experimentally determined values is good, which indicated that the Monte Carlo model is enough to simulate the Musashi TRIGA-II reactor core. (author)
Iterative acceleration methods for Monte Carlo and deterministic criticality calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urbatsch, T.J.
1995-11-01
If you have ever given up on a nuclear criticality calculation and terminated it because it took so long to converge, you might find this thesis of interest. The author develops three methods for improving the fission source convergence in nuclear criticality calculations for physical systems with high dominance ratios for which convergence is slow. The Fission Matrix Acceleration Method and the Fission Diffusion Synthetic Acceleration (FDSA) Method are acceleration methods that speed fission source convergence for both Monte Carlo and deterministic methods. The third method is a hybrid Monte Carlo method that also converges for difficult problems where the unaccelerated Monte Carlo method fails. The author tested the feasibility of all three methods in a test bed consisting of idealized problems. He has successfully accelerated fission source convergence in both deterministic and Monte Carlo criticality calculations. By filtering statistical noise, he has incorporated deterministic attributes into the Monte Carlo calculations in order to speed their source convergence. He has used both the fission matrix and a diffusion approximation to perform unbiased accelerations. The Fission Matrix Acceleration method has been implemented in the production code MCNP and successfully applied to a real problem. When the unaccelerated calculations are unable to converge to the correct solution, they cannot be accelerated in an unbiased fashion. A Hybrid Monte Carlo method weds Monte Carlo and a modified diffusion calculation to overcome these deficiencies. The Hybrid method additionally possesses reduced statistical errors
Iterative acceleration methods for Monte Carlo and deterministic criticality calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Urbatsch, T.J.
1995-11-01
If you have ever given up on a nuclear criticality calculation and terminated it because it took so long to converge, you might find this thesis of interest. The author develops three methods for improving the fission source convergence in nuclear criticality calculations for physical systems with high dominance ratios for which convergence is slow. The Fission Matrix Acceleration Method and the Fission Diffusion Synthetic Acceleration (FDSA) Method are acceleration methods that speed fission source convergence for both Monte Carlo and deterministic methods. The third method is a hybrid Monte Carlo method that also converges for difficult problems where the unaccelerated Monte Carlo method fails. The author tested the feasibility of all three methods in a test bed consisting of idealized problems. He has successfully accelerated fission source convergence in both deterministic and Monte Carlo criticality calculations. By filtering statistical noise, he has incorporated deterministic attributes into the Monte Carlo calculations in order to speed their source convergence. He has used both the fission matrix and a diffusion approximation to perform unbiased accelerations. The Fission Matrix Acceleration method has been implemented in the production code MCNP and successfully applied to a real problem. When the unaccelerated calculations are unable to converge to the correct solution, they cannot be accelerated in an unbiased fashion. A Hybrid Monte Carlo method weds Monte Carlo and a modified diffusion calculation to overcome these deficiencies. The Hybrid method additionally possesses reduced statistical errors.
Monte Carlo based diffusion coefficients for LMFBR analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Rooijen, Willem F.G.; Takeda, Toshikazu; Hazama, Taira
2010-01-01
A method based on Monte Carlo calculations is developed to estimate the diffusion coefficient of unit cells. The method uses a geometrical model similar to that used in lattice theory, but does not use the assumption of a separable fundamental mode used in lattice theory. The method uses standard Monte Carlo flux and current tallies, and the continuous energy Monte Carlo code MVP was used without modifications. Four models are presented to derive the diffusion coefficient from tally results of flux and partial currents. In this paper the method is applied to the calculation of a plate cell of the fast-spectrum critical facility ZEBRA. Conventional calculations of the diffusion coefficient diverge in the presence of planar voids in the lattice, but our Monte Carlo method can treat this situation without any problem. The Monte Carlo method was used to investigate the influence of geometrical modeling as well as the directional dependence of the diffusion coefficient. The method can be used to estimate the diffusion coefficient of complicated unit cells, the limitation being the capabilities of the Monte Carlo code. The method will be used in the future to confirm results for the diffusion coefficient obtained of the Monte Carlo code. The method will be used in the future to confirm results for the diffusion coefficient obtained with deterministic codes. (author)
Characterization of decommissioned reactor internals: Monte Carlo analysis technique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reid, B.D.; Love, E.F.; Luksic, A.T.
1993-03-01
This study discusses computer analysis techniques for determining activation levels of irradiated reactor component hardware to yield data for the Department of Energy's Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste Program. The study recommends the Monte Carlo Neutron/Photon (MCNP) computer code as the best analysis tool for this application and compares the technique to direct sampling methodology. To implement the MCNP analysis, a computer model would be developed to reflect the geometry, material composition, and power history of an existing shutdown reactor. MCNP analysis would then be performed using the computer model, and the results would be validated by comparison to laboratory analysis results from samples taken from the shutdown reactor. The report estimates uncertainties for each step of the computational and laboratory analyses; the overall uncertainty of the MCNP results is projected to be ±35%. The primary source of uncertainty is identified as the material composition of the components, and research is suggested to address that uncertainty
A radiating shock evaluated using Implicit Monte Carlo Diffusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cleveland, M.; Gentile, N.
2013-01-01
Implicit Monte Carlo [1] (IMC) has been shown to be very expensive when used to evaluate a radiation field in opaque media. Implicit Monte Carlo Diffusion (IMD) [2], which evaluates a spatial discretized diffusion equation using a Monte Carlo algorithm, can be used to reduce the cost of evaluating the radiation field in opaque media [2]. This work couples IMD to the hydrodynamics equations to evaluate opaque diffusive radiating shocks. The Lowrie semi-analytic diffusive radiating shock benchmark[a] is used to verify our implementation of the coupled system of equations. (authors)
Recommender engine for continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo methods
Huang, Li; Yang, Yi-feng; Wang, Lei
2017-03-01
Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items such as books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accuracy. Exploiting the quantum to classical mapping inherent in the continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo methods, we construct a classical molecular gas model to reproduce the quantum distributions. We then utilize powerful molecular simulation techniques to propose efficient quantum Monte Carlo updates. The recommender engine approach provides a general way to speed up the quantum impurity solvers.
Discrete Diffusion Monte Carlo for Electron Thermal Transport
Chenhall, Jeffrey; Cao, Duc; Wollaeger, Ryan; Moses, Gregory
2014-10-01
The iSNB (implicit Schurtz Nicolai Busquet electron thermal transport method of Cao et al. is adapted to a Discrete Diffusion Monte Carlo (DDMC) solution method for eventual inclusion in a hybrid IMC-DDMC (Implicit Monte Carlo) method. The hybrid method will combine the efficiency of a diffusion method in short mean free path regions with the accuracy of a transport method in long mean free path regions. The Monte Carlo nature of the approach allows the algorithm to be massively parallelized. Work to date on the iSNB-DDMC method will be presented. This work was supported by Sandia National Laboratory - Albuquerque.
The Monte Carlo method the method of statistical trials
Shreider, YuA
1966-01-01
The Monte Carlo Method: The Method of Statistical Trials is a systematic account of the fundamental concepts and techniques of the Monte Carlo method, together with its range of applications. Some of these applications include the computation of definite integrals, neutron physics, and in the investigation of servicing processes. This volume is comprised of seven chapters and begins with an overview of the basic features of the Monte Carlo method and typical examples of its application to simple problems in computational mathematics. The next chapter examines the computation of multi-dimensio
Neutron flux calculation by means of Monte Carlo methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barz, H.U.; Eichhorn, M.
1988-01-01
In this report a survey of modern neutron flux calculation procedures by means of Monte Carlo methods is given. Due to the progress in the development of variance reduction techniques and the improvements of computational techniques this method is of increasing importance. The basic ideas in application of Monte Carlo methods are briefly outlined. In more detail various possibilities of non-analog games and estimation procedures are presented, problems in the field of optimizing the variance reduction techniques are discussed. In the last part some important international Monte Carlo codes and own codes of the authors are listed and special applications are described. (author)
Pseudopotentials for quantum-Monte-Carlo-calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burkatzki, Mark Thomas
2008-01-01
The author presents scalar-relativistic energy-consistent Hartree-Fock pseudopotentials for the main-group and 3d-transition-metal elements. The pseudopotentials do not exhibit a singularity at the nucleus and are therefore suitable for quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations. The author demonstrates their transferability through extensive benchmark calculations of atomic excitation spectra as well as molecular properties. In particular, the author computes the vibrational frequencies and binding energies of 26 first- and second-row diatomic molecules using post Hartree-Fock methods, finding excellent agreement with the corresponding all-electron values. The author shows that the presented pseudopotentials give superior accuracy than other existing pseudopotentials constructed specifically for QMC. The localization error and the efficiency in QMC are discussed. The author also presents QMC calculations for selected atomic and diatomic 3d-transitionmetal systems. Finally, valence basis sets of different sizes (VnZ with n=D,T,Q,5 for 1st and 2nd row; with n=D,T for 3rd to 5th row; with n=D,T,Q for the 3d transition metals) optimized for the pseudopotentials are presented. (orig.)
Parallel Monte Carlo simulation of aerosol dynamics
Zhou, K.
2014-01-01
A highly efficient Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is developed for the numerical simulation of aerosol dynamics, that is, nucleation, surface growth, and coagulation. Nucleation and surface growth are handled with deterministic means, while coagulation is simulated with a stochastic method (Marcus-Lushnikov stochastic process). Operator splitting techniques are used to synthesize the deterministic and stochastic parts in the algorithm. The algorithm is parallelized using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The parallel computing efficiency is investigated through numerical examples. Near 60% parallel efficiency is achieved for the maximum testing case with 3.7 million MC particles running on 93 parallel computing nodes. The algorithm is verified through simulating various testing cases and comparing the simulation results with available analytical and/or other numerical solutions. Generally, it is found that only small number (hundreds or thousands) of MC particles is necessary to accurately predict the aerosol particle number density, volume fraction, and so forth, that is, low order moments of the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) function. Accurately predicting the high order moments of the PSD needs to dramatically increase the number of MC particles. 2014 Kun Zhou et al.
SERPENT Monte Carlo reactor physics code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leppaenen, J.
2010-01-01
SERPENT is a three-dimensional continuous-energy Monte Carlo reactor physics burnup calculation code, developed at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland since 2004. The code is specialized in lattice physics applications, but the universe-based geometry description allows transport simulation to be carried out in complicated three-dimensional geometries as well. The suggested applications of SERPENT include generation of homogenized multi-group constants for deterministic reactor simulator calculations, fuel cycle studies involving detailed assembly-level burnup calculations, validation of deterministic lattice transport codes, research reactor applications, educational purposes and demonstration of reactor physics phenomena. The Serpent code has been publicly distributed by the OECD/NEA Data Bank since May 2009 and RSICC in the U. S. since March 2010. The code is being used in some 35 organizations in 20 countries around the world. This paper presents an overview of the methods and capabilities of the Serpent code, with examples in the modelling of WWER-440 reactor physics. (Author)
A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm
Collier, Nathan
2014-09-05
We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error tolerance is satisfied. CMLMC assumes discretization hierarchies that are defined a priori for each level and are geometrically refined across levels. The actual choice of computational work across levels is based on parametric models for the average cost per sample and the corresponding variance and weak error. These parameters are calibrated using Bayesian estimation, taking particular notice of the deepest levels of the discretization hierarchy, where only few realizations are available to produce the estimates. The resulting CMLMC estimator exhibits a non-trivial splitting between bias and statistical contributions. We also show the asymptotic normality of the statistical error in the MLMC estimator and justify in this way our error estimate that allows prescribing both required accuracy and confidence in the final result. Numerical results substantiate the above results and illustrate the corresponding computational savings in examples that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Radon counting statistics - a Monte Carlo investigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scott, A.G.
1996-01-01
Radioactive decay is a Poisson process, and so the Coefficient of Variation (COV) of open-quotes nclose quotes counts of a single nuclide is usually estimated as 1/√n. This is only true if the count duration is much shorter than the half-life of the nuclide. At longer count durations, the COV is smaller than the Poisson estimate. Most radon measurement methods count the alpha decays of 222 Rn, plus the progeny 218 Po and 214 Po, and estimate the 222 Rn activity from the sum of the counts. At long count durations, the chain decay of these nuclides means that every 222 Rn decay must be followed by two other alpha decays. The total number of decays is open-quotes 3Nclose quotes, where N is the number of radon decays, and the true COV of the radon concentration estimate is 1/√(N), √3 larger than the Poisson total count estimate of 1/√3N. Most count periods are comparable to the half lives of the progeny, so the relationship between COV and count time is complex. A Monte-Carlo estimate of the ratio of true COV to Poisson estimate was carried out for a range of count periods from 1 min to 16 h and three common radon measurement methods: liquid scintillation, scintillation cell, and electrostatic precipitation of progeny. The Poisson approximation underestimates COV by less than 20% for count durations of less than 60 min
Monte Carlo simulations for heavy ion dosimetry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Geithner, O.
2006-07-26
Water-to-air stopping power ratio (s{sub w,air}) calculations for the ionization chamber dosimetry of clinically relevant ion beams with initial energies from 50 to 450 MeV/u have been performed using the Monte Carlo technique. To simulate the transport of a particle in water the computer code SHIELD-HIT v2 was used which is a substantially modified version of its predecessor SHIELD-HIT v1. The code was partially rewritten, replacing formerly used single precision variables with double precision variables. The lowest particle transport specific energy was decreased from 1 MeV/u down to 10 keV/u by modifying the Bethe- Bloch formula, thus widening its range for medical dosimetry applications. Optional MSTAR and ICRU-73 stopping power data were included. The fragmentation model was verified using all available experimental data and some parameters were adjusted. The present code version shows excellent agreement with experimental data. Additional to the calculations of stopping power ratios, s{sub w,air}, the influence of fragments and I-values on s{sub w,air} for carbon ion beams was investigated. The value of s{sub w,air} deviates as much as 2.3% at the Bragg peak from the recommended by TRS-398 constant value of 1.130 for an energy of 50 MeV/u. (orig.)
The Monte Carlo calculation of gamma family
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shibata, Makio
1980-01-01
The method of the Monte Carlo calculation for gamma family was investigated. The effects of the variation of values or terms of parameters on observed quantities were studied. The terms taken for the standard calculation are the scaling law for the model, simple proton spectrum for primary cosmic ray, a constant cross section of interaction, zero probability of neutral pion production, and the bending of the curve of primary energy spectrum. This is called S model. Calculations were made by changing one of above mentioned parameters. The chamber size, the mixing of gamma and hadrons, and the family size were fitted to the practical ECC data. When the model was changed from the scaling law to the CKP model, the energy spectrum of the family was able to be expressed by the CKP model better than the scaling law. The scaling law was better in the symmetry around the family center. It was denied that primary cosmic ray mostly consists of heavy particles. The increase of the interaction cross section was necessary in view of the frequency of the families. (Kato, T.)
Monte Carlo Production Management at CMS
Boudoul, G.; Pol, A; Srimanobhas, P; Vlimant, J R; Franzoni, Giovanni
2015-01-01
The analysis of the LHC data at the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment requires the production of a large number of simulated events.During the runI of LHC (2010-2012), CMS has produced over 12 Billion simulated events,organized in approximately sixty different campaigns each emulating specific detector conditions and LHC running conditions (pile up).In order toaggregate the information needed for the configuration and prioritization of the events production,assure the book-keeping and of all the processing requests placed by the physics analysis groups,and to interface with the CMS production infrastructure,the web-based service Monte Carlo Management (McM) has been developed and put in production in 2012.McM is based on recent server infrastructure technology (CherryPy + java) and relies on a CouchDB database back-end.This contribution will coverthe one and half year of operational experience managing samples of simulated events for CMS,the evolution of its functionalitiesand the extension of its capabi...
Atomistic Monte Carlo Simulation of Lipid Membranes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Wüstner
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Biological membranes are complex assemblies of many different molecules of which analysis demands a variety of experimental and computational approaches. In this article, we explain challenges and advantages of atomistic Monte Carlo (MC simulation of lipid membranes. We provide an introduction into the various move sets that are implemented in current MC methods for efficient conformational sampling of lipids and other molecules. In the second part, we demonstrate for a concrete example, how an atomistic local-move set can be implemented for MC simulations of phospholipid monomers and bilayer patches. We use our recently devised chain breakage/closure (CBC local move set in the bond-/torsion angle space with the constant-bond-length approximation (CBLA for the phospholipid dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC. We demonstrate rapid conformational equilibration for a single DPPC molecule, as assessed by calculation of molecular energies and entropies. We also show transition from a crystalline-like to a fluid DPPC bilayer by the CBC local-move MC method, as indicated by the electron density profile, head group orientation, area per lipid, and whole-lipid displacements. We discuss the potential of local-move MC methods in combination with molecular dynamics simulations, for example, for studying multi-component lipid membranes containing cholesterol.
Monte Carlo benchmarking: Validation and progress
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sala, P.
2010-01-01
Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Calculational tools for radiation shielding at accelerators are faced with new challenges from the present and next generations of particle accelerators. All the details of particle production and transport play a role when dealing with huge power facilities, therapeutic ion beams, radioactive beams and so on. Besides the traditional calculations required for shielding, activation predictions have become an increasingly critical component. Comparison and benchmarking with experimental data is obviously mandatory in order to build up confidence in the computing tools, and to assess their reliability and limitations. Thin target particle production data are often the best tools for understanding the predictive power of individual interaction models and improving their performances. Complex benchmarks (e.g. thick target data, deep penetration, etc.) are invaluable in assessing the overall performances of calculational tools when all ingredients are put at work together. A review of the validation procedures of Monte Carlo tools will be presented with practical and real life examples. The interconnections among benchmarks, model development and impact on shielding calculations will be highlighted. (authors)
Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods
Rubino, Gerardo
2009-01-01
In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...
The GENIE neutrino Monte Carlo generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andreopoulos, C.; Bell, A.; Bhattacharya, D.; Cavanna, F.; Dobson, J.; Dytman, S.; Gallagher, H.; Guzowski, P.; Hatcher, R.; Kehayias, P.; Meregaglia, A.; Naples, D.; Pearce, G.; Rubbia, A.; Whalley, M.; Yang, T.
2010-01-01
GENIE is a new neutrino event generator for the experimental neutrino physics community. The goal of the project is to develop a 'canonical' neutrino interaction physics Monte Carlo whose validity extends to all nuclear targets and neutrino flavors from MeV to PeV energy scales. Currently, emphasis is on the few-GeV energy range, the challenging boundary between the non-perturbative and perturbative regimes, which is relevant for the current and near future long-baseline precision neutrino experiments using accelerator-made beams. The design of the package addresses many challenges unique to neutrino simulations and supports the full life-cycle of simulation and generator-related analysis tasks. GENIE is a large-scale software system, consisting of ∼120000 lines of C++ code, featuring a modern object-oriented design and extensively validated physics content. The first official physics release of GENIE was made available in August 2007, and at the time of the writing of this article, the latest available version was v2.4.4.
Academic Training: Monte Carlo generators for the LHC
Françoise Benz
2005-01-01
2004-2005 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 4, 5, 6, 7 April from 11.00 to 12.00 hrs - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Monte Carlo generators for the LHC T. SJOSTRAND / CERN-PH, Lund Univ. SE Event generators today are indispensable as tools for the modelling of complex physics processes, that jointly lead to the production of hundreds of particles per event at LHC energies. Generators are used to set detector requirements, to formulate analysis strategies, or to calculate acceptance corrections. These lectures describe the physics that goes into the construction of an event generator, such as hard processes, initial- and final-state radiation, multiple interactions and beam remnants, hadronization and decays, and how these pieces come together. The current main generators are introduced, and are used to illustrate uncertainties in the physics modelling. Some trends for the future are outlined. ENSEIGNEMENT ACADEMIQUE ACADEMIC TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 academic.training@cern.ch
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks
Goodrich, Michael S.
2011-01-01
Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.
A systematic framework for Monte Carlo simulation of remote sensing errors map in carbon assessments
S. Healey; P. Patterson; S. Urbanski
2014-01-01
Remotely sensed observations can provide unique perspective on how management and natural disturbance affect carbon stocks in forests. However, integration of these observations into formal decision support will rely upon improved uncertainty accounting. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations offer a practical, empirical method of accounting for potential remote sensing errors...
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for statistical analysis of RF photonic devices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Piels, Molly; Zibar, Darko
2016-01-01
uncertainty is shown to give unsatisfactory and incorrect results due to the nonlinear relationship between the circuit parameters and the measured data. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are shown to provide superior results, both for individual devices and for assessing within-die variation...
Quasi-random Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis
Chatzivasileiadis, T.
2017-01-01
The uncertainty and robustness of Computable General Equilibrium models can be assessed by conducting a Systematic Sensitivity Analysis. Different methods have been used in the literature for SSA of CGE models such as Gaussian Quadrature and Monte Carlo methods. This paper explores the use of
Longitudinal functional principal component modelling via Stochastic Approximation Monte Carlo
Martinez, Josue G.; Liang, Faming; Zhou, Lan; Carroll, Raymond J.
2010-01-01
model averaging using a Bayesian formulation. A relatively straightforward reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo formulation has poor mixing properties and in simulated data often becomes trapped at the wrong number of principal components. In order
Time step length versus efficiency of Monte Carlo burnup calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dufek, Jan; Valtavirta, Ville
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Time step length largely affects efficiency of MC burnup calculations. • Efficiency of MC burnup calculations improves with decreasing time step length. • Results were obtained from SIE-based Monte Carlo burnup calculations. - Abstract: We demonstrate that efficiency of Monte Carlo burnup calculations can be largely affected by the selected time step length. This study employs the stochastic implicit Euler based coupling scheme for Monte Carlo burnup calculations that performs a number of inner iteration steps within each time step. In a series of calculations, we vary the time step length and the number of inner iteration steps; the results suggest that Monte Carlo burnup calculations get more efficient as the time step length is reduced. More time steps must be simulated as they get shorter; however, this is more than compensated by the decrease in computing cost per time step needed for achieving a certain accuracy
GE781: a Monte Carlo package for fixed target experiments
Davidenko, G.; Funk, M. A.; Kim, V.; Kuropatkin, N.; Kurshetsov, V.; Molchanov, V.; Rud, S.; Stutte, L.; Verebryusov, V.; Zukanovich Funchal, R.
The Monte Carlo package for the fixed target experiment B781 at Fermilab, a third generation charmed baryon experiment, is described. This package is based on GEANT 3.21, ADAMO database and DAFT input/output routines.
Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo
Cheon, Sooyoung
2009-11-01
Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Optix: A Monte Carlo scintillation light transport code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Safari, M.J., E-mail: mjsafari@aut.ac.ir [Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Amir Kabir University of Technology, PO Box 15875-4413, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Afarideh, H. [Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Amir Kabir University of Technology, PO Box 15875-4413, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghal-Eh, N. [School of Physics, Damghan University, PO Box 36716-41167, Damghan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Davani, F. Abbasi [Nuclear Engineering Department, Shahid Beheshti University, PO Box 1983963113, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2014-02-11
The paper reports on the capabilities of Monte Carlo scintillation light transport code Optix, which is an extended version of previously introduced code Optics. Optix provides the user a variety of both numerical and graphical outputs with a very simple and user-friendly input structure. A benchmarking strategy has been adopted based on the comparison with experimental results, semi-analytical solutions, and other Monte Carlo simulation codes to verify various aspects of the developed code. Besides, some extensive comparisons have been made against the tracking abilities of general-purpose MCNPX and FLUKA codes. The presented benchmark results for the Optix code exhibit promising agreements. -- Highlights: • Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation light transport in 3D geometry. • Evaluation of angular distribution of detected photons. • Benchmark studies to check the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations.
Dosimetric measurements and Monte Carlo simulation for achieving ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Research Articles Volume 74 Issue 3 March 2010 pp 457-468 ... Food irradiation; electron accelerator; Monte Carlo; dose uniformity. ... for radiation processing of food and medical products is being commissioned at our centre in Indore, India.
Suppression of the initial transient in Monte Carlo criticality simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richet, Y.
2006-12-01
Criticality Monte Carlo calculations aim at estimating the effective multiplication factor (k-effective) for a fissile system through iterations simulating neutrons propagation (making a Markov chain). Arbitrary initialization of the neutron population can deeply bias the k-effective estimation, defined as the mean of the k-effective computed at each iteration. A simplified model of this cycle k-effective sequence is built, based on characteristics of industrial criticality Monte Carlo calculations. Statistical tests, inspired by Brownian bridge properties, are designed to discriminate stationarity of the cycle k-effective sequence. The initial detected transient is, then, suppressed in order to improve the estimation of the system k-effective. The different versions of this methodology are detailed and compared, firstly on a plan of numerical tests fitted on criticality Monte Carlo calculations, and, secondly on real criticality calculations. Eventually, the best methodologies observed in these tests are selected and allow to improve industrial Monte Carlo criticality calculations. (author)
Monte Carlo calculations of electron diffusion in materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schroeder, U.G.
1976-01-01
By means of simulated experiments, various transport problems for 10 Mev electrons are investigated. For this purpose, a special Monte-Carlo programme is developed, and with this programme calculations are made for several material arrangements. (orig./LN) [de
A MONTE-CARLO METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE CORRELATION EXPONENT
MIKOSCH, T; WANG, QA
We propose a Monte Carlo method for estimating the correlation exponent of a stationary ergodic sequence. The estimator can be considered as a bootstrap version of the classical Hill estimator. A simulation study shows that the method yields reasonable estimates.
Combinatorial geometry domain decomposition strategies for Monte Carlo simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, G.; Zhang, B.; Deng, L.; Mo, Z.; Liu, Z.; Shangguan, D.; Ma, Y.; Li, S.; Hu, Z. [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing, 100094 (China)
2013-07-01
Analysis and modeling of nuclear reactors can lead to memory overload for a single core processor when it comes to refined modeling. A method to solve this problem is called 'domain decomposition'. In the current work, domain decomposition algorithms for a combinatorial geometry Monte Carlo transport code are developed on the JCOGIN (J Combinatorial Geometry Monte Carlo transport INfrastructure). Tree-based decomposition and asynchronous communication of particle information between domains are described in the paper. Combination of domain decomposition and domain replication (particle parallelism) is demonstrated and compared with that of MERCURY code. A full-core reactor model is simulated to verify the domain decomposition algorithms using the Monte Carlo particle transport code JMCT (J Monte Carlo Transport Code), which has being developed on the JCOGIN infrastructure. Besides, influences of the domain decomposition algorithms to tally variances are discussed. (authors)
Combinatorial geometry domain decomposition strategies for Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, G.; Zhang, B.; Deng, L.; Mo, Z.; Liu, Z.; Shangguan, D.; Ma, Y.; Li, S.; Hu, Z.
2013-01-01
Analysis and modeling of nuclear reactors can lead to memory overload for a single core processor when it comes to refined modeling. A method to solve this problem is called 'domain decomposition'. In the current work, domain decomposition algorithms for a combinatorial geometry Monte Carlo transport code are developed on the JCOGIN (J Combinatorial Geometry Monte Carlo transport INfrastructure). Tree-based decomposition and asynchronous communication of particle information between domains are described in the paper. Combination of domain decomposition and domain replication (particle parallelism) is demonstrated and compared with that of MERCURY code. A full-core reactor model is simulated to verify the domain decomposition algorithms using the Monte Carlo particle transport code JMCT (J Monte Carlo Transport Code), which has being developed on the JCOGIN infrastructure. Besides, influences of the domain decomposition algorithms to tally variances are discussed. (authors)
Calculation of toroidal fusion reactor blankets by Monte Carlo
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macdonald, J.L.; Cashwell, E.D.; Everett, C.J.
1977-01-01
A brief description of the calculational method is given. The code calculates energy deposition in toroidal geometry, but is a continuous energy Monte Carlo code, treating the reaction cross sections as well as the angular scattering distributions in great detail
The Monte Carlo simulation of the Ladon photon beam facility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strangio, C.
1976-01-01
The backward compton scattering of laser light against high energy electrons has been simulated with a Monte Carlo method. The main features of the produced photon beam are reported as well as a careful description of the numerical calculation
Monte Carlo variance reduction approaches for non-Boltzmann tallies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Booth, T.E.
1992-12-01
Quantities that depend on the collective effects of groups of particles cannot be obtained from the standard Boltzmann transport equation. Monte Carlo estimates of these quantities are called non-Boltzmann tallies and have become increasingly important recently. Standard Monte Carlo variance reduction techniques were designed for tallies based on individual particles rather than groups of particles. Experience with non-Boltzmann tallies and analog Monte Carlo has demonstrated the severe limitations of analog Monte Carlo for many non-Boltzmann tallies. In fact, many calculations absolutely require variance reduction methods to achieve practical computation times. Three different approaches to variance reduction for non-Boltzmann tallies are described and shown to be unbiased. The advantages and disadvantages of each of the approaches are discussed
Combinatorial nuclear level density by a Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cerf, N.
1994-01-01
We present a new combinatorial method for the calculation of the nuclear level density. It is based on a Monte Carlo technique, in order to avoid a direct counting procedure which is generally impracticable for high-A nuclei. The Monte Carlo simulation, making use of the Metropolis sampling scheme, allows a computationally fast estimate of the level density for many fermion systems in large shell model spaces. We emphasize the advantages of this Monte Carlo approach, particularly concerning the prediction of the spin and parity distributions of the excited states,and compare our results with those derived from a traditional combinatorial or a statistical method. Such a Monte Carlo technique seems very promising to determine accurate level densities in a large energy range for nuclear reaction calculations
Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design Using Multilevel Monte Carlo
Ben Issaid, Chaouki
2015-01-01
informative data about the model parameters. One of the major difficulties in evaluating the expected information gain is that it naturally involves nested integration over a possibly high dimensional domain. We use the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method
Herwig: The Evolution of a Monte Carlo Simulation
CERN. Geneva
2015-01-01
Monte Carlo event generation has seen significant developments in the last 10 years starting with preparation for the LHC and then during the first LHC run. I will discuss the basic ideas behind Monte Carlo event generators and then go on to discuss these developments, focussing on the developments in Herwig(++) event generator. I will conclude by presenting the current status of event generation together with some results of the forthcoming new version of Herwig, Herwig 7.
Clinical considerations of Monte Carlo for electron radiotherapy treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faddegon, Bruce; Balogh, Judith; Mackenzie, Robert; Scora, Daryl
1998-01-01
Technical requirements for Monte Carlo based electron radiotherapy treatment planning are outlined. The targeted overall accuracy for estimate of the delivered dose is the least restrictive of 5% in dose, 5 mm in isodose position. A system based on EGS4 and capable of achieving this accuracy is described. Experience gained in system design and commissioning is summarized. The key obstacle to widespread clinical use of Monte Carlo is lack of clinically acceptable measurement based methodology for accurate commissioning
Monte Carlo method for solving a parabolic problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tian Yi
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we present a numerical method based on random sampling for a parabolic problem. This method combines use of the Crank-Nicolson method and Monte Carlo method. In the numerical algorithm, we first discretize governing equations by Crank-Nicolson method, and obtain a large sparse system of linear algebraic equations, then use Monte Carlo method to solve the linear algebraic equations. To illustrate the usefulness of this technique, we apply it to some test problems.
NUEN-618 Class Project: Actually Implicit Monte Carlo
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vega, R. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Brunner, T. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2017-12-14
This research describes a new method for the solution of the thermal radiative transfer (TRT) equations that is implicit in time which will be called Actually Implicit Monte Carlo (AIMC). This section aims to introduce the TRT equations, as well as the current workhorse method which is known as Implicit Monte Carlo (IMC). As the name of the method proposed here indicates, IMC is a misnomer in that it is only semi-implicit, which will be shown in this section as well.
Monte Carlo methods and applications in nuclear physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, J.
1990-01-01
Monte Carlo methods for studying few- and many-body quantum systems are introduced, with special emphasis given to their applications in nuclear physics. Variational and Green's function Monte Carlo methods are presented in some detail. The status of calculations of light nuclei is reviewed, including discussions of the three-nucleon-interaction, charge and magnetic form factors, the coulomb sum rule, and studies of low-energy radiative transitions. 58 refs., 12 figs
Monte Carlo methods and applications in nuclear physics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carlson, J.
1990-01-01
Monte Carlo methods for studying few- and many-body quantum systems are introduced, with special emphasis given to their applications in nuclear physics. Variational and Green's function Monte Carlo methods are presented in some detail. The status of calculations of light nuclei is reviewed, including discussions of the three-nucleon-interaction, charge and magnetic form factors, the coulomb sum rule, and studies of low-energy radiative transitions. 58 refs., 12 figs.
Study of the Transition Flow Regime using Monte Carlo Methods
Hassan, H. A.
1999-01-01
This NASA Cooperative Agreement presents a study of the Transition Flow Regime Using Monte Carlo Methods. The topics included in this final report are: 1) New Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) procedures; 2) The DS3W and DS2A Programs; 3) Papers presented; 4) Miscellaneous Applications and Program Modifications; 5) Solution of Transitional Wake Flows at Mach 10; and 6) Turbulence Modeling of Shock-Dominated Fows with a k-Enstrophy Formulation.
Modern analysis of ion channeling data by Monte Carlo simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nowicki, Lech [Andrzej SoItan Institute for Nuclear Studies, ul. Hoza 69, 00-681 Warsaw (Poland)]. E-mail: lech.nowicki@fuw.edu.pl; Turos, Andrzej [Institute of Electronic Materials Technology, Wolczynska 133, 01-919 Warsaw (Poland); Ratajczak, Renata [Andrzej SoItan Institute for Nuclear Studies, ul. Hoza 69, 00-681 Warsaw (Poland); Stonert, Anna [Andrzej SoItan Institute for Nuclear Studies, ul. Hoza 69, 00-681 Warsaw (Poland); Garrido, Frederico [Centre de Spectrometrie Nucleaire et Spectrometrie de Masse, CNRS-IN2P3-Universite Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay (France)
2005-10-15
Basic scheme of ion channeling spectra Monte Carlo simulation is reformulated in terms of statistical sampling. The McChasy simulation code is described and two examples of the code applications are presented. These are: calculation of projectile flux in uranium dioxide crystal and defect analysis for ion implanted InGaAsP/InP superlattice. Virtues and pitfalls of defect analysis using Monte Carlo simulations are discussed.
Monte Carlos of the new generation: status and progress
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frixione, Stefano
2005-01-01
Standard parton shower monte carlos are designed to give reliable descriptions of low-pT physics. In the very high-energy regime of modern colliders, this is may lead to largely incorrect predictions of the basic reaction processes. This motivated the recent theoretical efforts aimed at improving monte carlos through the inclusion of matrix elements computed beyond the leading order in QCD. I briefly review the progress made, and discuss bottom production at the Tevatron
Monte carlo sampling of fission multiplicity.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hendricks, J. S. (John S.)
2004-01-01
Two new methods have been developed for fission multiplicity modeling in Monte Carlo calculations. The traditional method of sampling neutron multiplicity from fission is to sample the number of neutrons above or below the average. For example, if there are 2.7 neutrons per fission, three would be chosen 70% of the time and two would be chosen 30% of the time. For many applications, particularly {sup 3}He coincidence counting, a better estimate of the true number of neutrons per fission is required. Generally, this number is estimated by sampling a Gaussian distribution about the average. However, because the tail of the Gaussian distribution is negative and negative neutrons cannot be produced, a slight positive bias can be found in the average value. For criticality calculations, the result of rejecting the negative neutrons is an increase in k{sub eff} of 0.1% in some cases. For spontaneous fission, where the average number of neutrons emitted from fission is low, the error also can be unacceptably large. If the Gaussian width approaches the average number of fissions, 10% too many fission neutrons are produced by not treating the negative Gaussian tail adequately. The first method to treat the Gaussian tail is to determine a correction offset, which then is subtracted from all sampled values of the number of neutrons produced. This offset depends on the average value for any given fission at any energy and must be computed efficiently at each fission from the non-integrable error function. The second method is to determine a corrected zero point so that all neutrons sampled between zero and the corrected zero point are killed to compensate for the negative Gaussian tail bias. Again, the zero point must be computed efficiently at each fission. Both methods give excellent results with a negligible computing time penalty. It is now possible to include the full effects of fission multiplicity without the negative Gaussian tail bias.
Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design Using Multilevel Monte Carlo
Ben Issaid, Chaouki; Long, Quan; Scavino, Marco; Tempone, Raul
2015-01-01
Experimental design is very important since experiments are often resource-exhaustive and time-consuming. We carry out experimental design in the Bayesian framework. To measure the amount of information, which can be extracted from the data in an experiment, we use the expected information gain as the utility function, which specifically is the expected logarithmic ratio between the posterior and prior distributions. Optimizing this utility function enables us to design experiments that yield the most informative data for our purpose. One of the major difficulties in evaluating the expected information gain is that the integral is nested and can be high dimensional. We propose using Multilevel Monte Carlo techniques to accelerate the computation of the nested high dimensional integral. The advantages are twofold. First, the Multilevel Monte Carlo can significantly reduce the cost of the nested integral for a given tolerance, by using an optimal sample distribution among different sample averages of the inner integrals. Second, the Multilevel Monte Carlo method imposes less assumptions, such as the concentration of measures, required by Laplace method. We test our Multilevel Monte Carlo technique using a numerical example on the design of sensor deployment for a Darcy flow problem governed by one dimensional Laplace equation. We also compare the performance of the Multilevel Monte Carlo, Laplace approximation and direct double loop Monte Carlo.
Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design Using Multilevel Monte Carlo
Ben Issaid, Chaouki
2015-01-07
Experimental design is very important since experiments are often resource-exhaustive and time-consuming. We carry out experimental design in the Bayesian framework. To measure the amount of information, which can be extracted from the data in an experiment, we use the expected information gain as the utility function, which specifically is the expected logarithmic ratio between the posterior and prior distributions. Optimizing this utility function enables us to design experiments that yield the most informative data for our purpose. One of the major difficulties in evaluating the expected information gain is that the integral is nested and can be high dimensional. We propose using Multilevel Monte Carlo techniques to accelerate the computation of the nested high dimensional integral. The advantages are twofold. First, the Multilevel Monte Carlo can significantly reduce the cost of the nested integral for a given tolerance, by using an optimal sample distribution among different sample averages of the inner integrals. Second, the Multilevel Monte Carlo method imposes less assumptions, such as the concentration of measures, required by Laplace method. We test our Multilevel Monte Carlo technique using a numerical example on the design of sensor deployment for a Darcy flow problem governed by one dimensional Laplace equation. We also compare the performance of the Multilevel Monte Carlo, Laplace approximation and direct double loop Monte Carlo.
Alternative implementations of the Monte Carlo power method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blomquist, R.N.; Gelbard, E.M.
2002-01-01
We compare nominal efficiencies, i.e. variances in power shapes for equal running time, of different versions of the Monte Carlo eigenvalue computation, as applied to criticality safety analysis calculations. The two main methods considered here are ''conventional'' Monte Carlo and the superhistory method, and both are used in criticality safety codes. Within each of these major methods, different variants are available for the main steps of the basic Monte Carlo algorithm. Thus, for example, different treatments of the fission process may vary in the extent to which they follow, in analog fashion, the details of real-world fission, or may vary in details of the methods by which they choose next-generation source sites. In general the same options are available in both the superhistory method and conventional Monte Carlo, but there seems not to have been much examination of the special properties of the two major methods and their minor variants. We find, first, that the superhistory method is just as efficient as conventional Monte Carlo and, secondly, that use of different variants of the basic algorithms may, in special cases, have a surprisingly large effect on Monte Carlo computational efficiency
Monte Carlo calculations of kQ, the beam quality conversion factor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muir, B. R.; Rogers, D. W. O.
2010-01-01
Purpose: To use EGSnrc Monte Carlo simulations to directly calculate beam quality conversion factors, k Q , for 32 cylindrical ionization chambers over a range of beam qualities and to quantify the effect of systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo calculations of k Q . These factors are required to use the TG-51 or TRS-398 clinical dosimetry protocols for calibrating external radiotherapy beams. Methods: Ionization chambers are modeled either from blueprints or manufacturers' user's manuals. The dose-to-air in the chamber is calculated using the EGSnrc user-code egs c hamber using 11 different tabulated clinical photon spectra for the incident beams. The dose to a small volume of water is also calculated in the absence of the chamber at the midpoint of the chamber on its central axis. Using a simple equation, k Q is calculated from these quantities under the assumption that W/e is constant with energy and compared to TG-51 protocol and measured values. Results: Polynomial fits to the Monte Carlo calculated k Q factors as a function of beam quality expressed as %dd(10) x and TPR 10 20 are given for each ionization chamber. Differences are explained between Monte Carlo calculated values and values from the TG-51 protocol or calculated using the computer program used for TG-51 calculations. Systematic uncertainties in calculated k Q values are analyzed and amount to a maximum of one standard deviation uncertainty of 0.99% if one assumes that photon cross-section uncertainties are uncorrelated and 0.63% if they are assumed correlated. The largest components of the uncertainty are the constancy of W/e and the uncertainty in the cross-section for photons in water. Conclusions: It is now possible to calculate k Q directly using Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo calculations for most ionization chambers give results which are comparable to TG-51 values. Discrepancies can be explained using individual Monte Carlo calculations of various correction factors which are more
Present status of transport code development based on Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakagawa, Masayuki
1985-01-01
The present status of development in Monte Carlo code is briefly reviewed. The main items are the followings; Application fields, Methods used in Monte Carlo code (geometry spectification, nuclear data, estimator and variance reduction technique) and unfinished works, Typical Monte Carlo codes and Merits of continuous energy Monte Carlo code. (author)
Implementation of a Monte Carlo based inverse planning model for clinical IMRT with MCNP code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
He, Tongming Tony
2003-01-01
Inaccurate dose calculations and limitations of optimization algorithms in inverse planning introduce systematic and convergence errors to treatment plans. This work was to implement a Monte Carlo based inverse planning model for clinical IMRT aiming to minimize the aforementioned errors. The strategy was to precalculate the dose matrices of beamlets in a Monte Carlo based method followed by the optimization of beamlet intensities. The MCNP 4B (Monte Carlo N-Particle version 4B) code was modified to implement selective particle transport and dose tallying in voxels and efficient estimation of statistical uncertainties. The resulting performance gain was over eleven thousand times. Due to concurrent calculation of multiple beamlets of individual ports, hundreds of beamlets in an IMRT plan could be calculated within a practical length of time. A finite-sized point source model provided a simple and accurate modeling of treatment beams. The dose matrix calculations were validated through measurements in phantoms. Agreements were better than 1.5% or 0.2 cm. The beamlet intensities were optimized using a parallel platform based optimization algorithm that was capable of escape from local minima and preventing premature convergence. The Monte Carlo based inverse planning model was applied to clinical cases. The feasibility and capability of Monte Carlo based inverse planning for clinical IMRT was demonstrated. Systematic errors in treatment plans of a commercial inverse planning system were assessed in comparison with the Monte Carlo based calculations. Discrepancies in tumor doses and critical structure doses were up to 12% and 17%, respectively. The clinical importance of Monte Carlo based inverse planning for IMRT was demonstrated
On Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Electricity Markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amelin, Mikael
2004-07-01
This dissertation is about how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyse electricity markets. There are a wide range of applications for simulation; for example, players in the electricity market can use simulation to decide whether or not an investment can be expected to be profitable, and authorities can by means of simulation find out which consequences a certain market design can be expected to have on electricity prices, environmental impact, etc. In the first part of the dissertation, the focus is which electricity market models are suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. The starting point is a definition of an ideal electricity market. Such an electricity market is partly practical from a mathematical point of view (it is simple to formulate and does not require too complex calculations) and partly it is a representation of the best possible resource utilisation. The definition of the ideal electricity market is followed by analysis how the reality differs from the ideal model, what consequences the differences have on the rules of the electricity market and the strategies of the players, as well as how non-ideal properties can be included in a mathematical model. Particularly, questions about environmental impact, forecast uncertainty and grid costs are studied. The second part of the dissertation treats the Monte Carlo technique itself. To reduce the number of samples necessary to obtain accurate results, variance reduction techniques can be used. Here, six different variance reduction techniques are studied and possible applications are pointed out. The conclusions of these studies are turned into a method for efficient simulation of basic electricity markets. The method is applied to some test systems and the results show that the chosen variance reduction techniques can produce equal or better results using 99% fewer samples compared to when the same system is simulated without any variance reduction technique. More complex electricity market models
Monte Carlo MP2 on Many Graphical Processing Units.
Doran, Alexander E; Hirata, So
2016-10-11
In the Monte Carlo second-order many-body perturbation (MC-MP2) method, the long sum-of-product matrix expression of the MP2 energy, whose literal evaluation may be poorly scalable, is recast into a single high-dimensional integral of functions of electron pair coordinates, which is evaluated by the scalable method of Monte Carlo integration. The sampling efficiency is further accelerated by the redundant-walker algorithm, which allows a maximal reuse of electron pairs. Here, a multitude of graphical processing units (GPUs) offers a uniquely ideal platform to expose multilevel parallelism: fine-grain data-parallelism for the redundant-walker algorithm in which millions of threads compute and share orbital amplitudes on each GPU; coarse-grain instruction-parallelism for near-independent Monte Carlo integrations on many GPUs with few and infrequent interprocessor communications. While the efficiency boost by the redundant-walker algorithm on central processing units (CPUs) grows linearly with the number of electron pairs and tends to saturate when the latter exceeds the number of orbitals, on a GPU it grows quadratically before it increases linearly and then eventually saturates at a much larger number of pairs. This is because the orbital constructions are nearly perfectly parallelized on a GPU and thus completed in a near-constant time regardless of the number of pairs. In consequence, an MC-MP2/cc-pVDZ calculation of a benzene dimer is 2700 times faster on 256 GPUs (using 2048 electron pairs) than on two CPUs, each with 8 cores (which can use only up to 256 pairs effectively). We also numerically determine that the cost to achieve a given relative statistical uncertainty in an MC-MP2 energy increases as O(n 3 ) or better with system size n, which may be compared with the O(n 5 ) scaling of the conventional implementation of deterministic MP2. We thus establish the scalability of MC-MP2 with both system and computer sizes.
Monte Carlo systems used for treatment planning and dose verification
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brualla, Lorenzo [Universitaetsklinikum Essen, NCTeam, Strahlenklinik, Essen (Germany); Rodriguez, Miguel [Centro Medico Paitilla, Balboa (Panama); Lallena, Antonio M. [Universidad de Granada, Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Granada (Spain)
2017-04-15
General-purpose radiation transport Monte Carlo codes have been used for estimation of the absorbed dose distribution in external photon and electron beam radiotherapy patients since several decades. Results obtained with these codes are usually more accurate than those provided by treatment planning systems based on non-stochastic methods. Traditionally, absorbed dose computations based on general-purpose Monte Carlo codes have been used only for research, owing to the difficulties associated with setting up a simulation and the long computation time required. To take advantage of radiation transport Monte Carlo codes applied to routine clinical practice, researchers and private companies have developed treatment planning and dose verification systems that are partly or fully based on fast Monte Carlo algorithms. This review presents a comprehensive list of the currently existing Monte Carlo systems that can be used to calculate or verify an external photon and electron beam radiotherapy treatment plan. Particular attention is given to those systems that are distributed, either freely or commercially, and that do not require programming tasks from the end user. These systems are compared in terms of features and the simulation time required to compute a set of benchmark calculations. (orig.) [German] Seit mehreren Jahrzehnten werden allgemein anwendbare Monte-Carlo-Codes zur Simulation des Strahlungstransports benutzt, um die Verteilung der absorbierten Dosis in der perkutanen Strahlentherapie mit Photonen und Elektronen zu evaluieren. Die damit erzielten Ergebnisse sind meist akkurater als solche, die mit nichtstochastischen Methoden herkoemmlicher Bestrahlungsplanungssysteme erzielt werden koennen. Wegen des damit verbundenen Arbeitsaufwands und der langen Dauer der Berechnungen wurden Monte-Carlo-Simulationen von Dosisverteilungen in der konventionellen Strahlentherapie in der Vergangenheit im Wesentlichen in der Forschung eingesetzt. Im Bemuehen, Monte-Carlo
Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gareth W. Peters
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The main objective of this work is to develop a detailed step-by-step guide to the development and application of a new class of efficient Monte Carlo methods to solve practically important problems faced by insurers under the new solvency regulations. In particular, a novel Monte Carlo method to calculate capital allocations for a general insurance company is developed, with a focus on coherent capital allocation that is compliant with the Swiss Solvency Test. The data used is based on the balance sheet of a representative stylized company. For each line of business in that company, allocations are calculated for the one-year risk with dependencies based on correlations given by the Swiss Solvency Test. Two different approaches for dealing with parameter uncertainty are discussed and simulation algorithms based on (pseudo-marginal Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms are described and their efficiency is analysed.
Gbedo, Yémalin Gabin; Mangin-Brinet, Mariane
2017-07-01
We present a new procedure to determine parton distribution functions (PDFs), based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The aim of this paper is to show that we can replace the standard χ2 minimization by procedures grounded on statistical methods, and on Bayesian inference in particular, thus offering additional insight into the rich field of PDFs determination. After a basic introduction to these techniques, we introduce the algorithm we have chosen to implement—namely Hybrid (or Hamiltonian) Monte Carlo. This algorithm, initially developed for Lattice QCD, turns out to be very interesting when applied to PDFs determination by global analyses; we show that it allows us to circumvent the difficulties due to the high dimensionality of the problem, in particular concerning the acceptance. A first feasibility study is performed and presented, which indicates that Markov chain Monte Carlo can successfully be applied to the extraction of PDFs and of their uncertainties.
Nonlinear Spatial Inversion Without Monte Carlo Sampling
Curtis, A.; Nawaz, A.
2017-12-01
High-dimensional, nonlinear inverse or inference problems usually have non-unique solutions. The distribution of solutions are described by probability distributions, and these are usually found using Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods. These take pseudo-random samples of models in parameter space, calculate the probability of each sample given available data and other information, and thus map out high or low probability values of model parameters. However, such methods would converge to the solution only as the number of samples tends to infinity; in practice, MC is found to be slow to converge, convergence is not guaranteed to be achieved in finite time, and detection of convergence requires the use of subjective criteria. We propose a method for Bayesian inversion of categorical variables such as geological facies or rock types in spatial problems, which requires no sampling at all. The method uses a 2-D Hidden Markov Model over a grid of cells, where observations represent localized data constraining the model in each cell. The data in our example application are seismic properties such as P- and S-wave impedances or rock density; our model parameters are the hidden states and represent the geological rock types in each cell. The observations at each location are assumed to depend on the facies at that location only - an assumption referred to as `localized likelihoods'. However, the facies at a location cannot be determined solely by the observation at that location as it also depends on prior information concerning its correlation with the spatial distribution of facies elsewhere. Such prior information is included in the inversion in the form of a training image which represents a conceptual depiction of the distribution of local geologies that might be expected, but other forms of prior information can be used in the method as desired. The method provides direct (pseudo-analytic) estimates of posterior marginal probability distributions over each variable
Advanced Mesh-Enabled Monte carlo capability for Multi-Physics Reactor Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, Paul; Evans, Thomas; Tautges, Tim
2012-12-24
This project will accumulate high-precision fluxes throughout reactor geometry on a non- orthogonal grid of cells to support multi-physics coupling, in order to more accurately calculate parameters such as reactivity coefficients and to generate multi-group cross sections. This work will be based upon recent developments to incorporate advanced geometry and mesh capability in a modular Monte Carlo toolkit with computational science technology that is in use in related reactor simulation software development. Coupling this capability with production-scale Monte Carlo radiation transport codes can provide advanced and extensible test-beds for these developments. Continuous energy Monte Carlo methods are generally considered to be the most accurate computational tool for simulating radiation transport in complex geometries, particularly neutron transport in reactors. Nevertheless, there are several limitations for their use in reactor analysis. Most significantly, there is a trade-off between the fidelity of results in phase space, statistical accuracy, and the amount of computer time required for simulation. Consequently, to achieve an acceptable level of statistical convergence in high-fidelity results required for modern coupled multi-physics analysis, the required computer time makes Monte Carlo methods prohibitive for design iterations and detailed whole-core analysis. More subtly, the statistical uncertainty is typically not uniform throughout the domain, and the simulation quality is limited by the regions with the largest statistical uncertainty. In addition, the formulation of neutron scattering laws in continuous energy Monte Carlo methods makes it difficult to calculate adjoint neutron fluxes required to properly determine important reactivity parameters. Finally, most Monte Carlo codes available for reactor analysis have relied on orthogonal hexahedral grids for tallies that do not conform to the geometric boundaries and are thus generally not well
A residual Monte Carlo method for discrete thermal radiative diffusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evans, T.M.; Urbatsch, T.J.; Lichtenstein, H.; Morel, J.E.
2003-01-01
Residual Monte Carlo methods reduce statistical error at a rate of exp(-bN), where b is a positive constant and N is the number of particle histories. Contrast this convergence rate with 1/√N, which is the rate of statistical error reduction for conventional Monte Carlo methods. Thus, residual Monte Carlo methods hold great promise for increased efficiency relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods. Previous research has shown that the application of residual Monte Carlo methods to the solution of continuum equations, such as the radiation transport equation, is problematic for all but the simplest of cases. However, the residual method readily applies to discrete systems as long as those systems are monotone, i.e., they produce positive solutions given positive sources. We develop a residual Monte Carlo method for solving a discrete 1D non-linear thermal radiative equilibrium diffusion equation, and we compare its performance with that of the discrete conventional Monte Carlo method upon which it is based. We find that the residual method provides efficiency gains of many orders of magnitude. Part of the residual gain is due to the fact that we begin each timestep with an initial guess equal to the solution from the previous timestep. Moreover, fully consistent non-linear solutions can be obtained in a reasonable amount of time because of the effective lack of statistical noise. We conclude that the residual approach has great potential and that further research into such methods should be pursued for more general discrete and continuum systems
Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.
2014-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laliena Bielsa, V.; Jimenez Albericio, F. J.; Gandia Martinez, A.; Font Gomez, J. A.; Mengual Gil, M. A.; Andres Redondo, M. M.
2013-07-01
The source of uncertainty is not exclusive of the Monte Carlo method, but it will be present in any algorithm which takes into account the correction for heterogeneity. Although we hope that the uncertainty described above is small, the objective of this work is to try to quantify depending on the CT study. (Author)
Monte Carlo studies of high-transverse-energy hadronic interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Corcoran, M.D.
1985-01-01
A four-jet Monte Carlo calculation has been used to simulate hadron-hadron interactions which deposit high transverse energy into a large-solid-angle calorimeter and limited solid-angle regions of the calorimeter. The calculation uses first-order QCD cross sections to generate two scattered jets and also produces beam and target jets. Field-Feynman fragmentation has been used in the hadronization. The sensitivity of the results to a few features of the Monte Carlo program has been studied. The results are found to be very sensitive to the method used to ensure overall energy conservation after the fragmentation of the four jets is complete. Results are also sensitive to the minimum momentum transfer in the QCD subprocesses and to the distribution of p/sub T/ to the jet axis and the multiplicities in the fragmentation. With reasonable choices of these features of the Monte Carlo program, good agreement with data at Fermilab/CERN SPS energies is obtained, comparable to the agreement achieved with more sophisticated parton-shower models. With other choices, however, the calculation gives qualitatively different results which are in strong disagreement with the data. These results have important implications for extracting physics conclusions from Monte Carlo calculations. It is not possible to test the validity of a particular model or distinguish between different models unless the Monte Carlo results are unambiguous and different models exhibit clearly different behavior
Study on random number generator in Monte Carlo code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oya, Kentaro; Kitada, Takanori; Tanaka, Shinichi
2011-01-01
The Monte Carlo code uses a sequence of pseudo-random numbers with a random number generator (RNG) to simulate particle histories. A pseudo-random number has its own period depending on its generation method and the period is desired to be long enough not to exceed the period during one Monte Carlo calculation to ensure the correctness especially for a standard deviation of results. The linear congruential generator (LCG) is widely used as Monte Carlo RNG and the period of LCG is not so long by considering the increasing rate of simulation histories in a Monte Carlo calculation according to the remarkable enhancement of computer performance. Recently, many kinds of RNG have been developed and some of their features are better than those of LCG. In this study, we investigate the appropriate RNG in a Monte Carlo code as an alternative to LCG especially for the case of enormous histories. It is found that xorshift has desirable features compared with LCG, and xorshift has a larger period, a comparable speed to generate random numbers, a better randomness, and good applicability to parallel calculation. (author)
Parallel MCNP Monte Carlo transport calculations with MPI
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, J.C.; Haghighat, A.
1996-01-01
The steady increase in computational performance has made Monte Carlo calculations for large/complex systems possible. However, in order to make these calculations practical, order of magnitude increases in performance are necessary. The Monte Carlo method is inherently parallel (particles are simulated independently) and thus has the potential for near-linear speedup with respect to the number of processors. Further, the ever-increasing accessibility of parallel computers, such as workstation clusters, facilitates the practical use of parallel Monte Carlo. Recognizing the nature of the Monte Carlo method and the trends in available computing, the code developers at Los Alamos National Laboratory implemented the message-passing general-purpose Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCNP (version 4A). The PVM package was chosen by the MCNP code developers because it supports a variety of communication networks, several UNIX platforms, and heterogeneous computer systems. This PVM version of MCNP has been shown to produce speedups that approach the number of processors and thus, is a very useful tool for transport analysis. Due to software incompatibilities on the local IBM SP2, PVM has not been available, and thus it is not possible to take advantage of this useful tool. Hence, it became necessary to implement an alternative message-passing library package into MCNP. Because the message-passing interface (MPI) is supported on the local system, takes advantage of the high-speed communication switches in the SP2, and is considered to be the emerging standard, it was selected
Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.J.
1985-01-01
This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator
A general transform for variance reduction in Monte Carlo simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Becker, T.L.; Larsen, E.W.
2011-01-01
This paper describes a general transform to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimate of some desired solution, such as flux or biological dose. This transform implicitly includes many standard variance reduction techniques, including source biasing, collision biasing, the exponential transform for path-length stretching, and weight windows. Rather than optimizing each of these techniques separately or choosing semi-empirical biasing parameters based on the experience of a seasoned Monte Carlo practitioner, this General Transform unites all these variance techniques to achieve one objective: a distribution of Monte Carlo particles that attempts to optimize the desired solution. Specifically, this transform allows Monte Carlo particles to be distributed according to the user's specification by using information obtained from a computationally inexpensive deterministic simulation of the problem. For this reason, we consider the General Transform to be a hybrid Monte Carlo/Deterministic method. The numerical results con rm that the General Transform distributes particles according to the user-specified distribution and generally provide reasonable results for shielding applications. (author)
Acceleration of monte Carlo solution by conjugate gradient method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toshihisa, Yamamoto
2005-01-01
The conjugate gradient method (CG) was applied to accelerate Monte Carlo solutions in fixed source problems. The equilibrium model based formulation enables to use CG scheme as well as initial guess to maximize computational performance. This method is available to arbitrary geometry provided that the neutron source distribution in each subregion can be regarded as flat. Even if it is not the case, the method can still be used as a powerful tool to provide an initial guess very close to the converged solution. The major difference of Monte Carlo CG to deterministic CG is that residual error is estimated using Monte Carlo sampling, thus statistical error exists in the residual. This leads to a flow diagram specific to Monte Carlo-CG. Three pre-conditioners were proposed for CG scheme and the performance was compared with a simple 1-D slab heterogeneous test problem. One of them, Sparse-M option, showed an excellent performance in convergence. The performance per unit cost was improved by four times in the test problem. Although direct estimation of efficiency of the method is impossible mainly because of the strong problem-dependence of the optimized pre-conditioner in CG, the method seems to have efficient potential as a fast solution algorithm for Monte Carlo calculations. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laliena Bielsa, V.; Jimenez Albericio, F. J.; Gandia Martinez, A.; Font Gomez, J. A.; Mengual Gil, M. A.; Andres Redondo, M. M.
2013-01-01
The source of uncertainty is not exclusive of the Monte Carlo method, but it will be present in any algorithm which takes into account the correction for heterogeneity. Although we hope that the uncertainty described above is small, the objective of this work is to try to quantify depending on the CT study. (Author)
Application of Monte-Carlo method in definition of key categories of most radioactive polluted soil
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahmudov, H.M.; Valibeyova, G.; Jafarov, Y.D.; Musaeva, Sh.Z.
2006-01-01
Full text: The principle of analysis by Monte Carlo method consists of a choice of random variables of coefficients of an exposition doze capacities of radiation and data on activity within the boundaries of their individual density of frequency distribution upon corresponding sizes of exposition doses capacities. This procedure repeats for many times using computer and results of each round of calculations create universal density of frequency distribution of exposition doses capacities. The analysis using Monte Carlo method can be carried out at the level of radiation polluted soil categories. The analysis by Monte Carlo method is useful for realization of sensitivity analysis of measured capacity amount of an exposition dose in order to define the major factors causing uncertainty in reports. Reception of such conceptions can be valuable for definition of key categories of radiation polluted soil and establishment of priorities to use resources for enhancement of the report. Relative uncertainty of radiation polluted soil categories determined with the help of the analysis by Monte Carlo method in case of their availability can be applied using more significant divergence between average value and a confidential limit in case when borders of a confidential interval are asymmetric. It is important to determine key categories of radiation polluted soil to establish priorities to use reports of resources available for preparation and to prepare possible estimations for the most significant categories of sources. Usage of the notion u ncertainty i n reports also allows to set threshold value for a key category of sources, if it is necessary, for exact reflection of 90 percent uncertainty in reports. According to radiation safety norms level of radiation background exceeding 33 mkR/hour is considered dangerous. By calculated Monte Carlo method much more dangerous sites and sites frequently imposed to disposals and utilization were chosen from analyzed samples of
Application of Monte-Carlo method in definition of key categories of most radioactive polluted soil
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahmudov, H M; Valibeyova, G; Jafarov, Y D; Musaeva, Sh Z [Institute of Radiation Problems, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Baku (Azerbaijan)
2006-11-15
Full text: The principle of analysis by Monte Carlo method consists of a choice of random variables of coefficients of an exposition doze capacities of radiation and data on activity within the boundaries of their individual density of frequency distribution upon corresponding sizes of exposition doses capacities. This procedure repeats for many times using computer and results of each round of calculations create universal density of frequency distribution of exposition doses capacities. The analysis using Monte Carlo method can be carried out at the level of radiation polluted soil categories. The analysis by Monte Carlo method is useful for realization of sensitivity analysis of measured capacity amount of an exposition dose in order to define the major factors causing uncertainty in reports. Reception of such conceptions can be valuable for definition of key categories of radiation polluted soil and establishment of priorities to use resources for enhancement of the report. Relative uncertainty of radiation polluted soil categories determined with the help of the analysis by Monte Carlo method in case of their availability can be applied using more significant divergence between average value and a confidential limit in case when borders of a confidential interval are asymmetric. It is important to determine key categories of radiation polluted soil to establish priorities to use reports of resources available for preparation and to prepare possible estimations for the most significant categories of sources. Usage of the notion {sup u}ncertainty{sup i}n reports also allows to set threshold value for a key category of sources, if it is necessary, for exact reflection of 90 percent uncertainty in reports. According to radiation safety norms level of radiation background exceeding 33 mkR/hour is considered dangerous. By calted Monte Carlo method much more dangerous sites and sites frequently imposed to disposals and utilization were chosen from analyzed samples of
Li, Shu; The ATLAS collaboration
2017-01-01
We present the Monte Carlo(MC) setup used by ATLAS to model multi-boson processes in √s = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions. The baseline Monte Carlo generators are compared with each other in key kinematic distributions of the processes under study. Sample normalization and systematic uncertainties are discussed.
Utility of Monte Carlo Modelling for Holdup Measurements.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Belian, Anthony P.; Russo, P. A. (Phyllis A.); Weier, Dennis R. (Dennis Ray),
2005-01-01
Non-destructive assay (NDA) measurements performed to locate and quantify holdup in the Oak Ridge K25 enrichment cascade used neutron totals counting and low-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy. This facility housed the gaseous diffusion process for enrichment of uranium, in the form of UF{sub 6} gas, from {approx} 20% to 93%. Inventory of {sup 235}U inventory in K-25 is all holdup. These buildings have been slated for decontaminatino and decommissioning. The NDA measurements establish the inventory quantities and will be used to assure criticality safety and meet criteria for waste analysis and transportation. The tendency to err on the side of conservatism for the sake of criticality safety in specifying total NDA uncertainty argues, in the interests of safety and costs, for obtaining the best possible value of uncertainty at the conservative confidence level for each item of process equipment. Variable deposit distribution is a complex systematic effect (i.e., determined by multiple independent variables) on the portable NDA results for very large and bulk converters that contributes greatly to total uncertainty for holdup in converters measured by gamma or neutron NDA methods. Because the magnitudes of complex systematic effects are difficult to estimate, computational tools are important for evaluating those that are large. Motivated by very large discrepancies between gamma and neutron measurements of high-mass converters with gamma results tending to dominate, the Monte Carlo code MCNP has been used to determine the systematic effects of deposit distribution on gamma and neutron results for {sup 235}U holdup mass in converters. This paper details the numerical methodology used to evaluate large systematic effects unique to each measurement type, validates the methodology by comparison with measurements, and discusses how modeling tools can supplement the calibration of instruments used for holdup measurements by providing realistic values at well
Optimised Iteration in Coupled Monte Carlo - Thermal-Hydraulics Calculations
Hoogenboom, J. Eduard; Dufek, Jan
2014-06-01
This paper describes an optimised iteration scheme for the number of neutron histories and the relaxation factor in successive iterations of coupled Monte Carlo and thermal-hydraulic reactor calculations based on the stochastic iteration method. The scheme results in an increasing number of neutron histories for the Monte Carlo calculation in successive iteration steps and a decreasing relaxation factor for the spatial power distribution to be used as input to the thermal-hydraulics calculation. The theoretical basis is discussed in detail and practical consequences of the scheme are shown, among which a nearly linear increase per iteration of the number of cycles in the Monte Carlo calculation. The scheme is demonstrated for a full PWR type fuel assembly. Results are shown for the axial power distribution during several iteration steps. A few alternative iteration method are also tested and it is concluded that the presented iteration method is near optimal.
Monte Carlo simulation of neutron counters for safeguards applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Looman, Marc; Peerani, Paolo; Tagziria, Hamid
2009-01-01
MCNP-PTA is a new Monte Carlo code for the simulation of neutron counters for nuclear safeguards applications developed at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra (Italy). After some preliminary considerations outlining the general aspects involved in the computational modelling of neutron counters, this paper describes the specific details and approximations which make up the basis of the model implemented in the code. One of the major improvements allowed by the use of Monte Carlo simulation is a considerable reduction in both the experimental work and in the reference materials required for the calibration of the instruments. This new approach to the calibration of counters using Monte Carlo simulation techniques is also discussed.
LCG MCDB - a Knowledgebase of Monte Carlo Simulated Events
Belov, S; Galkin, E; Gusev, A; Pokorski, Witold; Sherstnev, A V
2008-01-01
In this paper we report on LCG Monte Carlo Data Base (MCDB) and software which has been developed to operate MCDB. The main purpose of the LCG MCDB project is to provide a storage and documentation system for sophisticated event samples simulated for the LHC collaborations by experts. In many cases, the modern Monte Carlo simulation of physical processes requires expert knowledge in Monte Carlo generators or significant amount of CPU time to produce the events. MCDB is a knowledgebase mainly to accumulate simulated events of this type. The main motivation behind LCG MCDB is to make the sophisticated MC event samples available for various physical groups. All the data from MCDB is accessible in several convenient ways. LCG MCDB is being developed within the CERN LCG Application Area Simulation project.
Monte Carlo simulated dynamical magnetization of single-chain magnets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Jun; Liu, Bang-Gui, E-mail: bgliu@iphy.ac.cn
2015-03-15
Here, a dynamical Monte-Carlo (DMC) method is used to study temperature-dependent dynamical magnetization of famous Mn{sub 2}Ni system as typical example of single-chain magnets with strong magnetic anisotropy. Simulated magnetization curves are in good agreement with experimental results under typical temperatures and sweeping rates, and simulated coercive fields as functions of temperature are also consistent with experimental curves. Further analysis indicates that the magnetization reversal is determined by both thermal-activated effects and quantum spin tunnelings. These can help explore basic properties and applications of such important magnetic systems. - Highlights: • Monte Carlo simulated magnetization curves are in good agreement with experimental results. • Simulated coercive fields as functions of temperature are consistent with experimental results. • The magnetization reversal is understood in terms of the Monte Carlo simulations.
BACKWARD AND FORWARD MONTE CARLO METHOD IN POLARIZED RADIATIVE TRANSFER
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yong, Huang; Guo-Dong, Shi; Ke-Yong, Zhu, E-mail: huangy_zl@263.net [School of Aeronautical Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)
2016-03-20
In general, the Stocks vector cannot be calculated in reverse in the vector radiative transfer. This paper presents a novel backward and forward Monte Carlo simulation strategy to study the vector radiative transfer in the participated medium. A backward Monte Carlo process is used to calculate the ray trajectory and the endpoint of the ray. The Stocks vector is carried out by a forward Monte Carlo process. A one-dimensional graded index semi-transparent medium was presented as the physical model and the thermal emission consideration of polarization was studied in the medium. The solution process to non-scattering, isotropic scattering, and the anisotropic scattering medium, respectively, is discussed. The influence of the optical thickness and albedo on the Stocks vector are studied. The results show that the U, V-components of the apparent Stocks vector are very small, but the Q-component of the apparent Stocks vector is relatively larger, which cannot be ignored.
Minimum variance Monte Carlo importance sampling with parametric dependence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ragheb, M.M.H.; Halton, J.; Maynard, C.W.
1981-01-01
An approach for Monte Carlo Importance Sampling with parametric dependence is proposed. It depends upon obtaining by proper weighting over a single stage the overall functional dependence of the variance on the importance function parameter over a broad range of its values. Results corresponding to minimum variance are adapted and other results rejected. Numerical calculation for the estimation of intergrals are compared to Crude Monte Carlo. Results explain the occurrences of the effective biases (even though the theoretical bias is zero) and infinite variances which arise in calculations involving severe biasing and a moderate number of historis. Extension to particle transport applications is briefly discussed. The approach constitutes an extension of a theory on the application of Monte Carlo for the calculation of functional dependences introduced by Frolov and Chentsov to biasing, or importance sample calculations; and is a generalization which avoids nonconvergence to the optimal values in some cases of a multistage method for variance reduction introduced by Spanier. (orig.) [de
MORET: Version 4.B. A multigroup Monte Carlo criticality code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacquet, Olivier; Miss, Joachim; Courtois, Gerard
2003-01-01
MORET 4 is a three dimensional multigroup Monte Carlo code which calculates the effective multiplication factor (keff) of any configurations more or less complex as well as reaction rates in the different volumes of the geometry and the leakage out of the system. MORET 4 is the Monte Carlo code of the APOLLO2-MORET 4 standard route of CRISTAL, the French criticality package. It is the most commonly used Monte Carlo code for French criticality calculations. During the last four years, the MORET 4 team has developed or improved the following major points: modernization of the geometry, implementation of perturbation algorithms, source distribution convergence, statistical detection of stationarity, unbiased variance estimation and creation of pre-processing and post-processing tools. The purpose of this paper is not only to present the new features of MORET but also to detail clearly the physical models and the mathematical methods used in the code. (author)
Monte Carlo tests of the ELIPGRID-PC algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davidson, J.R.
1995-04-01
The standard tool for calculating the probability of detecting pockets of contamination called hot spots has been the ELIPGRID computer code of Singer and Wickman. The ELIPGRID-PC program has recently made this algorithm available for an IBM reg-sign PC. However, no known independent validation of the ELIPGRID algorithm exists. This document describes a Monte Carlo simulation-based validation of a modified version of the ELIPGRID-PC code. The modified ELIPGRID-PC code is shown to match Monte Carlo-calculated hot-spot detection probabilities to within ±0.5% for 319 out of 320 test cases. The one exception, a very thin elliptical hot spot located within a rectangular sampling grid, differed from the Monte Carlo-calculated probability by about 1%. These results provide confidence in the ability of the modified ELIPGRID-PC code to accurately predict hot-spot detection probabilities within an acceptable range of error
Rapid Monte Carlo Simulation of Gravitational Wave Galaxies
Breivik, Katelyn; Larson, Shane L.
2015-01-01
With the detection of gravitational waves on the horizon, astrophysical catalogs produced by gravitational wave observatories can be used to characterize the populations of sources and validate different galactic population models. Efforts to simulate gravitational wave catalogs and source populations generally focus on population synthesis models that require extensive time and computational power to produce a single simulated galaxy. Monte Carlo simulations of gravitational wave source populations can also be used to generate observation catalogs from the gravitational wave source population. Monte Carlo simulations have the advantes of flexibility and speed, enabling rapid galactic realizations as a function of galactic binary parameters with less time and compuational resources required. We present a Monte Carlo method for rapid galactic simulations of gravitational wave binary populations.
Stabilization effect of fission source in coupled Monte Carlo simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Olsen, Borge; Dufek, Jan [Div. of Nuclear Reactor Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, AlbaNova University Center, Stockholm (Sweden)
2017-08-15
A fission source can act as a stabilization element in coupled Monte Carlo simulations. We have observed this while studying numerical instabilities in nonlinear steady-state simulations performed by a Monte Carlo criticality solver that is coupled to a xenon feedback solver via fixed-point iteration. While fixed-point iteration is known to be numerically unstable for some problems, resulting in large spatial oscillations of the neutron flux distribution, we show that it is possible to stabilize it by reducing the number of Monte Carlo criticality cycles simulated within each iteration step. While global convergence is ensured, development of any possible numerical instability is prevented by not allowing the fission source to converge fully within a single iteration step, which is achieved by setting a small number of criticality cycles per iteration step. Moreover, under these conditions, the fission source may converge even faster than in criticality calculations with no feedback, as we demonstrate in our numerical test simulations.
Applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo for lattice systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ammon, Andreas; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron; Hartung, Tobias; Jansen, Karl; Leovey, Hernan; Griewank, Andreas; Mueller-Preussker, Michael
2013-11-01
This project investigates the applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to Euclidean lattice systems in order to improve the asymptotic error scaling of observables for such theories. The error of an observable calculated by averaging over random observations generated from ordinary Monte Carlo simulations scales like N -1/2 , where N is the number of observations. By means of quasi-Monte Carlo methods it is possible to improve this scaling for certain problems to N -1 , or even further if the problems are regular enough. We adapted and applied this approach to simple systems like the quantum harmonic and anharmonic oscillator and verified an improved error scaling of all investigated observables in both cases.
Vectorizing and macrotasking Monte Carlo neutral particle algorithms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heifetz, D.B.
1987-04-01
Monte Carlo algorithms for computing neutral particle transport in plasmas have been vectorized and macrotasked. The techniques used are directly applicable to Monte Carlo calculations of neutron and photon transport, and Monte Carlo integration schemes in general. A highly vectorized code was achieved by calculating test flight trajectories in loops over arrays of flight data, isolating the conditional branches to as few a number of loops as possible. A number of solutions are discussed to the problem of gaps appearing in the arrays due to completed flights, which impede vectorization. A simple and effective implementation of macrotasking is achieved by dividing the calculation of the test flight profile among several processors. A tree of random numbers is used to ensure reproducible results. The additional memory required for each task may preclude using a larger number of tasks. In future machines, the limit of macrotasking may be possible, with each test flight, and split test flight, being a separate task
Exploring cluster Monte Carlo updates with Boltzmann machines
Wang, Lei
2017-11-01
Boltzmann machines are physics informed generative models with broad applications in machine learning. They model the probability distribution of an input data set with latent variables and generate new samples accordingly. Applying the Boltzmann machines back to physics, they are ideal recommender systems to accelerate the Monte Carlo simulation of physical systems due to their flexibility and effectiveness. More intriguingly, we show that the generative sampling of the Boltzmann machines can even give different cluster Monte Carlo algorithms. The latent representation of the Boltzmann machines can be designed to mediate complex interactions and identify clusters of the physical system. We demonstrate these findings with concrete examples of the classical Ising model with and without four-spin plaquette interactions. In the future, automatic searches in the algorithm space parametrized by Boltzmann machines may discover more innovative Monte Carlo updates.
Exploring cluster Monte Carlo updates with Boltzmann machines.
Wang, Lei
2017-11-01
Boltzmann machines are physics informed generative models with broad applications in machine learning. They model the probability distribution of an input data set with latent variables and generate new samples accordingly. Applying the Boltzmann machines back to physics, they are ideal recommender systems to accelerate the Monte Carlo simulation of physical systems due to their flexibility and effectiveness. More intriguingly, we show that the generative sampling of the Boltzmann machines can even give different cluster Monte Carlo algorithms. The latent representation of the Boltzmann machines can be designed to mediate complex interactions and identify clusters of the physical system. We demonstrate these findings with concrete examples of the classical Ising model with and without four-spin plaquette interactions. In the future, automatic searches in the algorithm space parametrized by Boltzmann machines may discover more innovative Monte Carlo updates.
Applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo for lattice systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ammon, Andreas [Berlin Humboldt-Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Hartung, Tobias [King' s College London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Mathematics; Jansen, Karl [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Leovey, Hernan; Griewank, Andreas [Berlin Humboldt-Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Mathematics; Mueller-Preussker, Michael [Berlin Humboldt-Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics
2013-11-15
This project investigates the applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to Euclidean lattice systems in order to improve the asymptotic error scaling of observables for such theories. The error of an observable calculated by averaging over random observations generated from ordinary Monte Carlo simulations scales like N{sup -1/2}, where N is the number of observations. By means of quasi-Monte Carlo methods it is possible to improve this scaling for certain problems to N{sup -1}, or even further if the problems are regular enough. We adapted and applied this approach to simple systems like the quantum harmonic and anharmonic oscillator and verified an improved error scaling of all investigated observables in both cases.
Monte Carlo simulation in statistical physics an introduction
Binder, Kurt
1992-01-01
The Monte Carlo method is a computer simulation method which uses random numbers to simulate statistical fluctuations The method is used to model complex systems with many degrees of freedom Probability distributions for these systems are generated numerically and the method then yields numerically exact information on the models Such simulations may be used tosee how well a model system approximates a real one or to see how valid the assumptions are in an analyical theory A short and systematic theoretical introduction to the method forms the first part of this book The second part is a practical guide with plenty of examples and exercises for the student Problems treated by simple sampling (random and self-avoiding walks, percolation clusters, etc) are included, along with such topics as finite-size effects and guidelines for the analysis of Monte Carlo simulations The two parts together provide an excellent introduction to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulations
Monte Carlo techniques in diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zaidi, H.
2002-01-01
Monte Carlo techniques have become one of the most popular tools in different areas of medical radiation physics following the development and subsequent implementation of powerful computing systems for clinical use. In particular, they have been extensively applied to simulate processes involving random behaviour and to quantify physical parameters that are difficult or even impossible to calculate analytically or to determine by experimental measurements. The use of the Monte Carlo method to simulate radiation transport turned out to be the most accurate means of predicting absorbed dose distributions and other quantities of interest in the radiation treatment of cancer patients using either external or radionuclide radiotherapy. The same trend has occurred for the estimation of the absorbed dose in diagnostic procedures using radionuclides. There is broad consensus in accepting that the earliest Monte Carlo calculations in medical radiation physics were made in the area of nuclear medicine, where the technique was used for dosimetry modelling and computations. Formalism and data based on Monte Carlo calculations, developed by the Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) committee of the Society of Nuclear Medicine, were published in a series of supplements to the Journal of Nuclear Medicine, the first one being released in 1968. Some of these pamphlets made extensive use of Monte Carlo calculations to derive specific absorbed fractions for electron and photon sources uniformly distributed in organs of mathematical phantoms. Interest in Monte Carlo-based dose calculations with β-emitters has been revived with the application of radiolabelled monoclonal antibodies to radioimmunotherapy. As a consequence of this generalized use, many questions are being raised primarily about the need and potential of Monte Carlo techniques, but also about how accurate it really is, what would it take to apply it clinically and make it available widely to the medical physics
Analysis of error in Monte Carlo transport calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Booth, T.E.
1979-01-01
The Monte Carlo method for neutron transport calculations suffers, in part, because of the inherent statistical errors associated with the method. Without an estimate of these errors in advance of the calculation, it is difficult to decide what estimator and biasing scheme to use. Recently, integral equations have been derived that, when solved, predicted errors in Monte Carlo calculations in nonmultiplying media. The present work allows error prediction in nonanalog Monte Carlo calculations of multiplying systems, even when supercritical. Nonanalog techniques such as biased kernels, particle splitting, and Russian Roulette are incorporated. Equations derived here allow prediction of how much a specific variance reduction technique reduces the number of histories required, to be weighed against the change in time required for calculation of each history. 1 figure, 1 table
Monte Carlo Simulation in Statistical Physics An Introduction
Binder, Kurt
2010-01-01
Monte Carlo Simulation in Statistical Physics deals with the computer simulation of many-body systems in condensed-matter physics and related fields of physics, chemistry and beyond, to traffic flows, stock market fluctuations, etc.). Using random numbers generated by a computer, probability distributions are calculated, allowing the estimation of the thermodynamic properties of various systems. This book describes the theoretical background to several variants of these Monte Carlo methods and gives a systematic presentation from which newcomers can learn to perform such simulations and to analyze their results. The fifth edition covers Classical as well as Quantum Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore a new chapter on the sampling of free-energy landscapes has been added. To help students in their work a special web server has been installed to host programs and discussion groups (http://wwwcp.tphys.uni-heidelberg.de). Prof. Binder was awarded the Berni J. Alder CECAM Award for Computational Physics 2001 as well ...
A Monte Carlo burnup code linking MCNP and REBUS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hanan, N.A.; Olson, A.P.; Pond, R.B.; Matos, J.E.
1998-01-01
The REBUS-3 burnup code, used in the anl RERTR Program, is a very general code that uses diffusion theory (DIF3D) to obtain the fluxes required for reactor burnup analyses. Diffusion theory works well for most reactors. However, to include the effects of exact geometry and strong absorbers that are difficult to model using diffusion theory, a Monte Carlo method is required. MCNP, a general-purpose, generalized-geometry, time-dependent, Monte Carlo transport code, is the most widely used Monte Carlo code. This paper presents a linking of the MCNP code and the REBUS burnup code to perform these difficult analyses. The linked code will permit the use of the full capabilities of REBUS which include non-equilibrium and equilibrium burnup analyses. Results of burnup analyses using this new linked code are also presented. (author)
A Multivariate Time Series Method for Monte Carlo Reactor Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taro Ueki
2008-01-01
A robust multivariate time series method has been established for the Monte Carlo calculation of neutron multiplication problems. The method is termed Coarse Mesh Projection Method (CMPM) and can be implemented using the coarse statistical bins for acquisition of nuclear fission source data. A novel aspect of CMPM is the combination of the general technical principle of projection pursuit in the signal processing discipline and the neutron multiplication eigenvalue problem in the nuclear engineering discipline. CMPM enables reactor physicists to accurately evaluate major eigenvalue separations of nuclear reactors with continuous energy Monte Carlo calculation. CMPM was incorporated in the MCNP Monte Carlo particle transport code of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The great advantage of CMPM over the traditional Fission Matrix method is demonstrated for the three space-dimensional modeling of the initial core of a pressurized water reactor