Multi-stage optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2017-01-01

We study problems of optimization of decision and inhibitory trees for decision tables with many-valued decisions. As cost functions, we consider depth, average depth, number of nodes, and number of terminal/nonterminal nodes in trees. Decision tables with many-valued decisions (multi-label decision tables) are often more accurate models for real-life data sets than usual decision tables with single-valued decisions. Inhibitory trees can sometimes capture more information from decision tables than decision trees. In this paper, we create dynamic programming algorithms for multi-stage optimization of trees relative to a sequence of cost functions. We apply these algorithms to prove the existence of totally optimal (simultaneously optimal relative to a number of cost functions) decision and inhibitory trees for some modified decision tables from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Identification and Prioritization of Important Attributes of Disease-Modifying Drugs in Decision Making among Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A Nominal Group Technique and Best-Worst Scaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kremer, Ingrid E H; Evers, Silvia M A A; Jongen, Peter J; van der Weijden, Trudy; van de Kolk, Ilona; Hiligsmann, Mickaël

2016-01-01

Understanding the preferences of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) for disease-modifying drugs and involving these patients in clinical decision making can improve the concordance between medical decisions and patient values and may, subsequently, improve adherence to disease-modifying drugs. This study aims first to identify which characteristics-or attributes-of disease-modifying drugs influence patients´ decisions about these treatments and second to quantify the attributes' relative importance among patients. First, three focus groups of relapsing-remitting MS patients were formed to compile a preliminary list of attributes using a nominal group technique. Based on this qualitative research, a survey with several choice tasks (best-worst scaling) was developed to prioritize attributes, asking a larger patient group to choose the most and least important attributes. The attributes' mean relative importance scores (RIS) were calculated. Nineteen patients reported 34 attributes during the focus groups and 185 patients evaluated the importance of the attributes in the survey. The effect on disease progression received the highest RIS (RIS = 9.64, 95% confidence interval: [9.48-9.81]), followed by quality of life (RIS = 9.21 [9.00-9.42]), relapse rate (RIS = 7.76 [7.39-8.13]), severity of side effects (RIS = 7.63 [7.33-7.94]) and relapse severity (RIS = 7.39 [7.06-7.73]). Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in preference of patients. For example, side effect-related attributes were statistically more important for patients who had no experience in using disease-modifying drugs compared to experienced patients (p decision making would be needed and requires eliciting individual preferences.

Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2016-10-20

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Greedy Algorithm for the Construction of Approximate Decision Rules for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2016-01-01

The paper is devoted to the study of a greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision rules. This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bounds on the precision of this algorithm relative to the length of rules. To illustrate proposed approach we study a problem of recognition of labels of points in the plain. This paper contains also results of experiments with modified decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Modifying Evaluations and Decisions in Risky Situations.

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, Antonio; Serra, Sara; Catena, Andrés; Cándido, Antonio; Megías, Alberto

2016-09-20

The main aim of this research was to investigate the decision making process in risky situations. We studied how different types of feedback on risky driving behaviors modulate risk evaluation and risk-taking. For a set of risky traffic situations, participants had to make evaluative judgments (judge the situation as risky or not) and urgent decisions (brake or not). In Experiment 1, participants received feedback with and without negative emotional content when they made risky behaviors. In Experiment 2 we investigated the independent effects of feedback and negative emotional stimuli. The results showed three important findings: First, urgent decisions were faster [F(1, 92) = 6.76, p = .01] and more cautious [F(1, 92) = 17.16, p towards more cautious responses [F(1, 111) = 14.09, p emotional stimuli had an effect only when they were presented as feedback. The results of this research increase our understanding of the processes involved in risky driving behavior and suggest efficient ways to control risk taking through the use of feedback.

Rational decisions

CERN Document Server

Binmore, Ken

2008-01-01

It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

Elements for the Design of a Decision-making Information System for activities related to genetically modified organisms: Contributions from a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benavides Molineros, Julia; Aguirre Ramirez, Nestor

2012-01-01

In Colombia, decisions related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) must be supported by assessment of the risk to biodiversity, human health and agricultural production. Based on this assessment, authorities can make decisions involving authorization or denial of the requested activities. The rationality of the decision-making process is very well established with respect to human health, particularly toxicity and allergenicity, but that is not the case for biodiversity issues. One of the biggest problems in this area is the lack of definition of a decision-making methodology, which leads to decisions made in an intuitive and non-systematic manner. Authorities in the field have recognized the need for a decision-making information system to help solve this situation. A proposal for the basic structure of a decision-making information system oriented to authorities involved in the process is presented. The proposal was developed based on a review of the main existing methodologies for GMO risk assessment and on a case study of the gene flow from GMOs to wild relatives. The structure is presented as a broad entity-relationship model from which the detailed design of the system can be developed. The proposal emphasizes the documentation of the decision protocols and the rationality of use of the information inputs.

Decision making on fitness landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

2017-04-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

2017-01-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

Field testing genetically modified organisms: framework for decisions

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

National Research Council Staff

1989-01-01

... on Scientific Evaluation of the Introduction of Genetically Modified Microoganisms and Plants into the Environment Board on Biology Commission on Life Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989 i Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-s...

Decision fusion recognition based on modified evidence rule

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

黎湘; 刘永祥; 付耀文; 庄钊文

2001-01-01

A modified evidence combination rule with a combination parameter λ is proposed to solve some problems in D-S theory by considering the correlation and complement among the evidences as well as the size and intersection of subsets in evidence. It can get reasonable results even the evidences are conflicting. Applying this rule to the real infrared/millimetre wave fusion system, a satisfactory result has been obtained.

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

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Lingjie Sun

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The power transformer is one of the most critical and expensive components for the stable operation of the power system. Hence, how to obtain the health condition of transformer is of great importance for power utilities. Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM, due to its ability of solving multi-source information problems, has become a quite effective tool to evaluate the health condition of transformers. Currently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and Dempster–Shafer theory are two popular methods to solve MADM problems; however, these techniques rarely consider one-sidedness of the single weighting method and the exclusiveness hypothesis of the Dempster–Shafer theory. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces a novel decision-making model, which integrates the merits of fuzzy set theory, game theory and modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, to evaluate the health condition of transformers. A four-level framework, which includes three factors and seventeen sub-factors, is put forward to facilitate the evaluation model. The model points out the following: First, the fuzzy set theory is employed to obtain the original basic probability assignments for all indices. Second, the subjective and objective weights of indices, which are calculated by fuzzy AHP and entropy weight, respectively, are integrated to generate the comprehensive weights based on game theory. Finally, based on the above two steps, the modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, which avoids the limitation of the exclusiveness hypothesis in the application of Dempster–Shafer theory, is proposed to obtain the final assessment results of transformers. Case studies are given to demonstrate the proposed modeling process. The results show the effectiveness and engineering practicability of the model in transformer condition assessment.

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Failure to utilize feedback causes decision-making deficits among excessive Internet gamers.

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Yao, Yuan-Wei; Chen, Pin-Ru; Chen, Chang; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Xue, Gui; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Yip, Sarah W; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2014-11-30

Internet gaming addiction (IGA) is an increasing mental health issue worldwide. Previous studies have revealed decision-making impairments in excessive Internet gamers (EIGs) with high symptoms of IGA. However, the role of feedback processing in decision-making deficits among EIGs remains unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of feedback processing on decision-making deficits under risk among EIGs, using the Game of Dice Task (GDT) and a modified version of the GDT in which no feedback was provided. Twenty-six EIGs and 26 matched occasional Internet gamers (OIGs) were recruited. The results showed: (a) OIGs performed better on the original GDT than on the modified GDT (no feedback condition); however, EIGs performed similarly on both tasks; (b) EIGs and OIGs performed equally on the modified GDT; however, EIGs chose more disadvantageous options than OIGs on the original GDT; (c) EIGs utilized feedback less frequently on the original GDT relative to OIGs. These results suggest that EIGs are not able to utilize feedback to optimize their decisions, which could underlie their poor decision-making under risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing and modifying the decision to pursue genetic testing for skin cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Fogel, Alexander L; Jaju, Prajakta D; Li, Shufeng; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2017-05-01

Across cancers, the decision to pursue genetic testing is influenced more by subjective than objective factors. However, skin cancer, which is more prevalent, visual, and multifactorial than many other malignancies, may offer different motivations for pursuing such testing. The primary objective was to determine factors influencing the decision to receive genetic testing for skin cancer risk. A secondary objective was to assess the impact of priming with health questions on the decision to receive testing. We distributed anonymous online surveys through ResearchMatch.org to assess participant health, demographics, motivations, and interest in pursuing genetic testing for skin cancer risk. Two surveys with identical questions but different question ordering were used to assess the secondary objective. We received 3783 responses (64% response rate), and 85.8% desired testing. Subjective factors, including curiosity, perceptions of skin cancer, and anxiety, were the most statistically significant determinants of the decision to pursue testing (P < .001), followed by history of sun exposure (odds ratio 1.85, P < .01) and history of skin cancer (odds ratio 0.5, P = .01). Age and family history of skin cancer did not influence this decision. Participants increasingly chose testing if first queried about health behaviors (P < .0001). The decision to pursue hypothetical testing may differ from in-clinic decision-making. Self-selected, online participants may differ from the general population. Surveys may be subject to response bias. The decision to pursue genetic testing for skin cancer is primarily determined by subjective factors, such as anxiety and curiosity. Health factors, including skin cancer history, also influenced decision-making. Priming with consideration of objective health factors can increase the desire to pursue testing. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan Raybould

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

Passionate Rationalism: The Role of Emotion in Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Lakomski, Gabriele; Evers, Colin W.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to argue that emotion has a central role to play in rational decision making based on recent research in the neuroanatomy of emotion. As a result, traditional rational decision-making theories, including Herbert Simon's modified model of satisficing that sharply demarcates emotions and values from rationality…

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Older Women and Their Career Decisions and Compromise.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerlicher, Cathie

Career theory is not a new topic, but one with an interesting past. The theories have been developed through working with men in the early days of the study of careers, modified to add women, and then modified even more for men and women in transition. Making a career decision is not a single event that takes place only in one's early adulthood,…

A qualitative study assessing patient perspectives in the process of decision-making on disease modifying therapies (DMT's) in multiple sclerosis (MS).

Science.gov (United States)

Ceuninck van Capelle, Archibald de; Meide, Hanneke van der; Vosman, Frans J H; Visser, Leo H

2017-01-01

Physicians commonly advise patients to begin disease modifying therapies (DMT's) shortly after the establishment of a diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) to prevent further relapses and disease progression. However, little is known about the meaning for patients going through the process of the diagnosis of MS and of making decisions on DMT's in early MS. To explore the patient perspective on using DMT's for MS. Methods: Ten participants with a recent (approach. The analysis revealed the following themes: (1) Constant confrontation with the disease, (2) Managing inevitable decline, (3) Hope of delaying the progression of the disease, and, (4) The importance of social support. The themes show that patients associate the recommendation to begin DMT's (especially injectable DMT's) with views about their bodies as well as their hopes about the future. Both considering and adhering to treatment are experienced by patients as not only matters of individual and rational deliberation, but also as activities that are lived within a web of relationships with relatives and friends. From the patient perspective, the use of DMT's is not a purely rational and individual experience. More attention to the use of DMT's as relational and lived phenomena will improve the understanding of the process of decision-making for DMT's in MS.

Computerized Decision Aids for Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Staszewska, Anna; Zaki, Pearl; Lee, Joon

2017-10-06

Shared decision making (SDM) is important in achieving patient-centered care. SDM tools such as decision aids are intended to inform the patient. When used to assist in decision making between treatments, decision aids have been shown to reduce decisional conflict, increase ease of decision making, and increase modification of previous decisions. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes related to SDM for seriously ill patients. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes and SDM in serious illness. Six RCTs were identified and data were extracted on study population, design, and results. Risk of bias was assessed by a modified Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Quality Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trials. Six RCTs tested decision tools in varying serious illnesses. Three studies compared different computerized decision aids against each other and a control. All but one study demonstrated improvement in at least one patient-centered outcome. Computerized decision tools may reduce unnecessary treatment in patients with low disease severity in comparison with informational pamphlets. Additionally, electronic health record (EHR) portals may provide the opportunity to manage care from the home for individuals affected by illness. The quality of decision aids is of great importance. Furthermore, satisfaction with the use of tools is associated with increased patient satisfaction and reduced decisional conflict. Finally, patients may benefit from computerized decision tools without the need for increased physician involvement. Most computerized decision aids improved at least one patient-centered outcome. All RCTs identified were at a High Risk of Bias or Unclear Risk of Bias. Effort should be made to improve the quality of RCTs testing SDM aids in serious

Effect of Health Literacy on Decision-Making Preferences among Medically Underserved Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Joann; Goodman, Melody S; Politi, Mary; Blanchard, Melvin; Kaphingst, Kimberly A

2016-05-01

Participation in the decision-making process and health literacy may both affect health outcomes; data on how these factors are related among diverse groups are limited. This study examined the relationship between health literacy and decision-making preferences in a medically underserved population. We analyzed a sample of 576 primary care patients. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association of health literacy (measured by the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine-Revised) and patients' decision-making preferences (physician directed or patient involved), controlling for age, race/ethnicity, and gender. We tested whether having a regular doctor modified this association. Adequate health literacy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7;P= 0.009) was significantly associated with preferring patient-involved decision making, controlling for age, race/ethnicity, and gender. Having a regular doctor did not modify this relationship. Males were significantly less likely to prefer patient-involved decision making (OR = 0.65;P= 0.024). Findings suggest health literacy affects decision-making preferences in medically underserved patients. More research is needed on how factors, such as patient knowledge or confidence, may influence decision-making preferences, particularly for those with limited health literacy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Information needs for water resources decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sellers, J.

1993-01-01

Water and related resources planning and decision-making have developed to the state of multiple objective and/or multiple criteria analysis using complicated systems analysis. The objective of this paper is to indicate the major components of information needed to facilitate the planning process for resource utilization, and to provide desirable outputs from management schemes. The process could best be described as the proper development of Management Information Systems (MIS) or Decision Support Systems (DDS). Data and information systems are never completed and must be continually updated and modified. The exact composition of any system depends also upon the general type of decision techniques being used. A brief outline of the decision process is given with the remainder of the paper dealing with the types of information needed to support the decision system. (author). 34 refs

Sure I'm sure : Prefrontal oscillations support metacognitive monitoring of decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wokke, M.E.; Cleeremans, A.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.

2017-01-01

Successful decision-making critically involves metacognitive processes such as monitoring and control of our decision process. Metacognition enables agents to adaptively modify on-going behavior and to determine what to do next in situations where external feedback is not (immediately) available.

Developing a Physiotherapy-Specific Preliminary Clinical Decision-Making Tool for Oxygen Titration: A Modified Delphi Study

Science.gov (United States)

Duong, Michelle; Bertin, Kendra; Henry, Renee; Singh, Deepti; Timmins, Nolla; Brooks, Dina; Mathur, Sunita

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: To develop and evaluate a preliminary clinical decision-making tool (CDMT) to assist physiotherapists in titrating oxygen for acutely ill adults in Ontario. Methods: A panel of 14 experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists was recruited. Factors relating to oxygen titration were identified using a modified Delphi technique. Four rounds of questionnaires were conducted, during which the goals were to (1) generate factors, (2) reduce factors and debate contentious factors, (3) finalize factors and develop the preliminary CDMT, and (4) evaluate the usability of the tool in a clinical context. Results: The panel reached consensus on a total of 89 factors, which were compiled to create the preliminary CDMT. The global tool reached consensus for sensibility, receiving a mean score of 6/7 on a 7-point Likert-type scale (1=unacceptable; 7=excellent). Five of the nine individual components of evaluation of the tool achieved scores ≥6.0; the remaining four had mean scores between 5.4 and 5.9. Conclusion: This study produced a preliminary CDMT for oxygen titration, which the panel agreed was highly comprehensible and globally sensible. Further research is necessary to evaluate the sensibility and applicability of the tool in a clinical setting. PMID:25125782

Employee participation in decision-making in architectural firms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedapo Oluwatayo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, the participation of employee architects in decision-making in architectural firms is investigated. This is with a view to identifying the organisational contexts that enhance employee participation in decision making. The impact of such participation on the performances of the firms was also assessed. This study was carried out through a questionnaire survey of employers of architects in Nigeria. In agreement with findings of previous studies, participation of the employees of the architectural firms in the study in decision making is low. Employee participation in decision making in the firms was dependent on the staffing strategy and proportion of junior staff in many cases. The positive impact of employee participation in decision making on firm performance varied with the nature of the decision. This study concludes that there is need for employers in architectural firms to identify the categories of decision that employees should be involved in and to modify their firm contexts to encourage participation where desired.

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Investigating decision rules with a new experimental design: the EXACT paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

Biscione, Valerio; Harris, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

In the decision-making field, it is important to distinguish between the perceptual process (how information is collected) and the decision rule (the strategy governing decision-making). We propose a new paradigm, called EXogenous ACcumulation Task (EXACT) to disentangle these two components. The paradigm consists of showing a horizontal gauge that represents the probability of receiving a reward at time t and increases with time. The participant is asked to press a button when they want to request a reward. Thus, the perceptual mechanism is hard-coded and does not need to be inferred from the data. Based on this paradigm, we compared four decision rules (Bayes Risk, Reward Rate, Reward/Accuracy, and Modified Reward Rate) and found that participants appeared to behave according to the Modified Reward Rate. We propose a new way of analysing the data by using the accuracy of responses, which can only be inferred in classic RT tasks. Our analysis suggests that several experimental findings such as RT distribution and its relationship with experimental conditions, usually deemed to be the result of a rise-to-threshold process, may be simply explained by the effect of the decision rule employed. PMID:26578916

Modifying sales summaries can aid forest products industries

Science.gov (United States)

G. B. Harpole

1976-01-01

This Note illustrates how a sales summary can be modified to separately identify changes in sales realization caused by changes in market prices and by changes in the product mix sold. With this information, a sales summary can become a helpful record to gage effects of past production and marketing decisions.

"Accelerated Perceptron": A Self-Learning Linear Decision Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Zuev, Yu. A.

2003-01-01

The class of linear decision rules is studied. A new algorithm for weight correction, called an "accelerated perceptron", is proposed. In contrast to classical Rosenblatt's perceptron this algorithm modifies the weight vector at each step. The algorithm may be employed both in learning and in self-learning modes. The theoretical aspects of the behaviour of the algorithm are studied when the algorithm is used for the purpose of increasing the decision reliability by means of weighted voting. I...

Decision Making in the PICU: An Examination of Factors Influencing Participation Decisions in Phase III Randomized Clinical Trials

Science.gov (United States)

Slosky, Laura E.; Burke, Natasha L.; Siminoff, Laura A.

2014-01-01

Background. In stressful situations, decision making processes related to informed consent may be compromised. Given the profound levels of distress that surrogates of children in pediatric intensive care units (PICU) experience, it is important to understand what factors may be influencing the decision making process beyond the informed consent. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of clinician influence and other factors on decision making regarding participation in a randomized clinical trial (RCT). Method. Participants were 76 children under sedation in a PICU and their surrogate decision makers. Measures included the Post Decision Clinician Survey, observer checklist, and post-decision interview. Results. Age of the pediatric patient was related to participation decisions in the RCT such that older children were more likely to be enrolled. Mentioning the sponsoring institution was associated with declining to participate in the RCT. Type of health care provider and overt recommendations to participate were not related to enrollment. Conclusion. Decisions to participate in research by surrogates of children in the PICU appear to relate to child demographics and subtleties in communication; however, no modifiable characteristics were related to increased participation, indicating that the informed consent process may not be compromised in this population. PMID:25161672

Decision Making in the PICU: An Examination of Factors Influencing Participation Decisions in Phase III Randomized Clinical Trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura E. Slosky

2014-01-01

participate were not related to enrollment. Conclusion. Decisions to participate in research by surrogates of children in the PICU appear to relate to child demographics and subtleties in communication; however, no modifiable characteristics were related to increased participation, indicating that the informed consent process may not be compromised in this population.

Age differences in attention toward decision-relevant information: education matters.

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Cai; Isaacowitz, Derek

2011-01-01

Previous studies suggested that older adults are more likely to engage in heuristic decision-making than young adults. This study used eye tracking technique to examine young adults' and highly educated older adults' attention toward two types of decision-relevant information: heuristic cue vs. factual cues. Surprisingly, highly educated older adults showed the reversed age pattern-they looked more toward factual cues than did young adults. This age difference disappeared after controlling for educational level. Additionally, education correlated with attentional pattern to decision-relevant information. We interpret this finding as an indication of the power of education: education may modify what are thought to be "typical" age differences in decision-making, and education may influence young and older people's decision-making via different paths.

Do European Union Farmers Reject Genetically Modified Maize? Farmer preferences for Genetically Modified Maize in Greece

OpenAIRE

Skevas, T.; Kikulwe, E.M.; Papadopoulou, E.; Skevas, I.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2012-01-01

The new EU proposal (IP/10/921) states that bans on genetically modified (GM) crops should not be based on environmental and health grounds, and it proposes a set of alternative reasons—including public order and morals—that can be cited by member states. This reveals the increasing importance of stakeholders’ attitudes in GM crops’ release decisions. This article analyzes farmers’ attitudes and perceptions toward GM maize based on a survey of large-area Greek farmers in Northeastern Greece. ...

Walfisz-like formula from Poisson's summation formula and some applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freitas, U. de; Chaba, A.N.

1983-01-01

Walfiscz-like formula for the number of lattice points of an arbitrary m-dimensional lattice in a hyperellipsoid with given semi-axes is derived from the Poisson's summation formula. Applications to (i) the evaluation of certain lattice sums and (ii) the calculation of the expressions for the density of states of a single non-relativistic particle as well as of a relativistic particle enclosed in a rectangular m-dimensional box of finite size and subject to different boundary conditions are given. (Author) [pt

Consumer Preference for Genetically Modified Halal Yogurt Drinks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siti Hasnah Hassan

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Consumers worldwide have reacted negatively to food products made from genetically modified (GM ingredients. This study strives to understand the importance placed by consumers on the features of a product when purchasing halal yogurt drinks with GM or non GM ingredient along with the level of antioxidants, price, flavor and Halal certification from JAKIM. In addition, their attitudes towards genetically modified foods, in general, and their purchase intention towards genetically modified yo- gurt drinks, in particular, were also determined. Experimental design using a convenience sampling was used; 120 eligible responses were received from the study using three types of yogurt drinks. The research findings showed that nutrition was deemed as being the most important product feature that influenced the decision in purchasing yogurt drinks, followed by freshness, price, flavor, variety, and origin. Furthermore, it was found that respondents presented a neutral attitude and purchase intention towards genetically modified yogurt drinks. The recommendations to market practitioners, research limitations, as well as suggestions for future studies are also discussed.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

A Descriptive Study of Decision-Making Conversations during Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Family Conferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Michael A; Clayman, Marla L; Frader, Joel; Arenson, Melanie; Haber-Barker, Natalie; Ryan, Claire; Emanuel, Linda; Michelson, Kelly

2018-06-19

Little is known about how decision-making conversations occur during pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) family conferences (FCs). Describe the decision-making process and implementation of shared decision making (SDM) during PICU FCs. Observational study. University-based tertiary care PICU, including 31 parents and 94 PICU healthcare professionals involved in FCs. We recorded, transcribed, and analyzed 14 PICU FCs involving decision-making discussions. We used a modified grounded theory and content analysis approach to explore the use of traditionally described stages of decision making (DM) (information exchange, deliberation, and determining a plan). We also identified the presence or absence of predefined SDM elements. DM involved the following modified stages: information exchange; information-oriented deliberation; plan-oriented deliberation; and determining a plan. Conversations progressed through stages in a nonlinear manner. For the main decision discussed, all conferences included a presentation of the clinical issues, treatment alternatives, and uncertainty. A minority of FCs included assessing the family's understanding (21%), assessing the family's need for input from others (28%), exploring the family's desired decision-making role (35%), and eliciting the family's opinion (42%). In the FCs studied, we found that DM is a nonlinear process. We also found that several SDM elements that could provide information about parents' perspectives and needs did not always occur, identifying areas for process improvement.

Unbending mind: Individuals with hoarding disorder do not modify decision strategy in response to feedback under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Pushkarskaya, Helen; Tolin, David F; Henick, Daniel; Levy, Ifat; Pittenger, Christopher

2018-01-01

Cognitive-behavioral models of hoarding disorder emphasize impairments in information processing and decision making in the genesis of hoarding symptomology. We propose and test the novel hypothesis that individuals with hoarding are maladaptively biased towards a deliberative decision style. While deliberative strategies are often considered normative, they are not always adaptable to the limitations imposed by many real-world decision contexts. We examined decision-making patterns in 19 individuals with hoarding and 19 healthy controls, using a behavioral task that quantifies selection of decision strategies in a novel environment with known probabilities (risk) in response to feedback. Consistent with prior literature, we found that healthy individuals tend to explore different decision strategies in the beginning of the experiment, but later, in response to feedback, they shift towards a compound strategy that balances expected values and risks. In contrast, individuals with hoarding follow a simple, deliberative, risk-neutral, value-based strategy from the beginning to the end of the task, irrespective of the feedback. This seemingly rational approach was not ecologically rational: individuals with hoarding and healthy individuals earned about the same amount of money, but it took individuals with hoarding a lot longer to do it: additional cognitive costs did not lead to additional benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancing emotion-based learning in decision-making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alarcón, David; Amián, Josué G; Sánchez-Medina, José A

2015-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is widely used to study decision-making differences between several clinical and healthy populations. Unlike the healthy participants, clinical participants have difficulty choosing between advantageous options, which yield long-term benefits, and disadvantageous options, which give high immediate rewards but lead to negative profits. However, recent studies have found that healthy participants avoid the options with a higher frequency of losses regardless of whether or not they are profitable in the long run. The aim of this study was to control for the confounding effect of the frequency of losses between options to improve the performance of healthy participants on the IGT. Eighty healthy participants were randomly assigned to the original IGT or a modified version of the IGT that diminished the gap in the frequency of losses between options. The participants who used the modified IGT version learned to make better decisions based on long-term profit, as indicated by an earlier ability to discriminate good from bad options, and took less time to make their choices. This research represents an advance in the study of decision making under uncertainty by showing that emotion-based learning is improved by controlling for the loss-frequency bias effect.

Case law and administrative decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2005-01-01

About the case law we find four parts, one concerns France and the judgement of the council of state on an application for annulment of the decree of 10 january 2003 authorizing Cogema to modify a major nuclear installation, a second one is in relation with the Usa through the ruling in relation to the sale of uranium enrichment services in the united States, decision concerning the Yucca mountain repository, Indiana michigan power company v. United States, natural resources defense council, snake river alliance, confederated tribes and bands of the Yakama indian Nation, Shoshone Bannock Tribes v. Abraham. For the third part devoted to European union it is question of the judgement of the European Court of justice in European union v. UK, the fourth part concerns administrative decisions with the early shutdown of Barsebaeck-2 in Sweden. (N.C.)

Decision making in neonatologia.

Science.gov (United States)

Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

2010-06-01

The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

The effect of threat of litigation on forensic pathologist diagnostic decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, William Russell

2011-12-01

Recent litigation involving medical examiners has caused concern over certifying deaths. We administered a survey of 716 medical examiners regarding the effects of the threat of litigation. Two hundred twenty-two medical examiners responded (31%). Of those who responded, approximately 13.5% admitted to having modified their diagnostic findings due to threat of litigation, and approximately 32.5% stated these considerations would affect their decisions in the future. Physicians who indicated they had or would modify their diagnoses expressed more concern over the possibility of litigation. Chiefs of services were less likely than staff members to indicate changing diagnoses. Practitioners whose jurisdictions included rural areas were significantly more likely to indicate that litigation considerations would affect their diagnoses in the future, although this was not true with those who had already modified their diagnoses. No correlation was found with elected versus appointed positions, accreditation status, sex, race, geographic location, or board certification. Although very few medical examiners have actually been sued because of their diagnoses, a demonstrated threat of litigation has a substantial effect on diagnostic decision making.

TRU waste processing comparison: slagging pyrolysis versus modified glassmaker

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonner, W.F.; Cox, N.D.; Hootman, H.E.; Nelson, D.C.; Pye, D.

1980-03-01

A task force was assembled to make a technical comparison of the expected performance of two processing systems potentially applicable for treating TRU waste at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. One system contained a slagging pyrolysis incinerator; the other a modified Penberthy Electromelt glassmaker. Although the glassmaker technology is essentially undeveloped, it was assumed that the glassmaker could eventually be modified to operate as a combined waste incinerator and melter; that is, to perform the same functions as a slagger. Using a decision analysis methodology to evaluate figures-of-merit, the task force found no significant difference in the performance of the two systems. Some areas for future R and D efforts are recommended for both types of incinerators

Sexual picture processing interferes with decision-making under ambiguity.

Science.gov (United States)

Laier, Christian; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias

2014-04-01

Many people watch sexually arousing material on the Internet in order to receive sexual arousal and gratification. When browsing for sexual stimuli, individuals have to make several decisions, all possibly leading to positive or negative consequences. Decision-making research has shown that decisions under ambiguity are influenced by consequences received following earlier decisions. Sexual arousal might interfere with the decision-making process and should therefore lead to disadvantageous decision-making in the long run. In the current study, 82 heterosexual, male participants watched sexual pictures, rated them with respect to sexual arousal, and were asked to indicate their current level of sexual arousal before and following the sexual picture presentation. Afterwards, subjects performed one of two modified versions of the Iowa Gambling Task in which sexual pictures were displayed on the advantageous and neutral pictures on the disadvantageous card decks or vice versa (n = 41/n = 41). Results demonstrated an increase of sexual arousal following the sexual picture presentation. Decision-making performance was worse when sexual pictures were associated with disadvantageous card decks compared to performance when the sexual pictures were linked to the advantageous decks. Subjective sexual arousal moderated the relationship between task condition and decision-making performance. This study emphasized that sexual arousal interfered with decision-making, which may explain why some individuals experience negative consequences in the context of cybersex use.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

2017-10-01

Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

Early decision-analytic modeling - a case study on vascular closure devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandes, Alina; Sinner, Moritz F; Kääb, Stefan; Rogowski, Wolf H

2015-10-27

As economic considerations become more important in healthcare reimbursement, decisions about the further development of medical innovations need to take into account not only medical need and potential clinical effectiveness, but also cost-effectiveness. Already early in the innovation process economic evaluations can support decisions on development in specific indications or patient groups by anticipating future reimbursement and implementation decisions. One potential concept for early assessment is value-based pricing. The objective is to assess the feasibility of value-based pricing and product design for a hypothetical vascular closure device in the pre-clinical stage which aims at decreasing bleeding events. A deterministic decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of established vascular closure devices from the perspective of the Statutory Health Insurance system. To identify early benchmarks for pricing and product design, three strategies of determining the product's value are explored: 1) savings from complications avoided by the new device; 2) valuation of the avoided complications based on an assumed willingness-to-pay-threshold (the efficiency frontier approach); 3) value associated with modifying the care pathways within which the device would be applied. Use of established vascular closure devices is dominated by manual compression. The hypothetical vascular closure device reduces overall complication rates at higher costs than manual compression. Maximum cost savings of only about €4 per catheterization could be realized by applying the hypothetical device. Extrapolation of an efficiency frontier is only possible for one subgroup where vascular closure devices are not a dominated strategy. Modifying care in terms of same-day discharge of patients treated with vascular closure devices could result in cost savings of €400-600 per catheterization. It was partially feasible to calculate value-based prices for the

Sociodemographic and subjective belief reasons for inter-EU differences of attitudes towards genetically modified food

OpenAIRE

Springer, Antje; Papastefanou, Georgios; Tsioumanis, Asterios; Mattas, Konstadinos

2005-01-01

'Modern biotechnology is a central issue in the public debate as there are still concerns about possible adverse effects deriving from the use of genetically modified organisms. The public, by influencing decisions on new biotechnology, politically through democratic channels or interest groups, but also as consumers via the market, will constitute the ultimate judge of agricultural biotechnology. The present research paper deals with attitudes towards genetically modified food (GM foods) in ...

Willingness-to-pay for steelhead trout fishing: Implications of two-step consumer decisions with short-run endowments

Science.gov (United States)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2010-09-01

Choice of the appropriate model of economic behavior is important for the measurement of nonmarket demand and benefits. Several travel cost demand model specifications are currently in use. Uncertainty exists over the efficacy of these approaches, and more theoretical and empirical study is warranted. Thus travel cost models with differing assumptions about labor markets and consumer behavior were applied to estimate the demand for steelhead trout sportfishing on an unimpounded reach of the Snake River near Lewiston, Idaho. We introduce a modified two-step decision model that incorporates endogenous time value using a latent index variable approach. The focus is on the importance of distinguishing between short-run and long-run consumer decision variables in a consistent manner. A modified Barnett two-step decision model was found superior to other models tested.

A Method for Speeding Up Value Iteration in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Nevin Lianwen; Lee, Stephen S.; Zhang, Weihong

2013-01-01

We present a technique for speeding up the convergence of value iteration for partially observable Markov decisions processes (POMDPs). The underlying idea is similar to that behind modified policy iteration for fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs). The technique can be easily incorporated into any existing POMDP value iteration algorithms. Experiments have been conducted on several test problems with one POMDP value iteration algorithm called incremental pruning. We find that th...

Decision boxes for clinicians to support evidence-based practice and shared decision making: the user experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giguere Anik

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This project engages patients and physicians in the development of Decision Boxes, short clinical topic summaries covering medical questions that have no single best answer. Decision Boxes aim to prepare the clinician to communicate the risks and benefits of the available options to the patient so they can make an informed decision together. Methods Seven researchers (including four practicing family physicians selected 10 clinical topics relevant to primary care practice through a Delphi survey. We then developed two one-page prototypes on two of these topics: prostate cancer screening with the prostate-specific antigen test, and prenatal screening for trisomy 21 with the serum integrated test. We presented the prototypes to purposeful samples of family physicians distributed in two focus groups, and patients distributed in four focus groups. We used the User Experience Honeycomb to explore barriers and facilitators to the communication design used in Decision Boxes. All discussions were transcribed, and three researchers proceeded to thematic content analysis of the transcriptions. The coding scheme was first developed from the Honeycomb’s seven themes (valuable, usable, credible, useful, desirable, accessible, and findable, and included new themes suggested by the data. Prototypes were modified in light of our findings. Results Three rounds were necessary for a majority of researchers to select 10 clinical topics. Fifteen physicians and 33 patients participated in the focus groups. Following analyses, three sections were added to the Decision Boxes: introduction, patient counseling, and references. The information was spread to two pages to try to make the Decision Boxes less busy and improve users’ first impression. To try to improve credibility, we gave more visibility to the research institutions involved in development. A statement on the boxes’ purpose and a flow chart representing the shared decision

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

The differences in self-efficacy in career decision-making and decision-making styles among secondary school students with different patterns of family attachment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suvajdžić Katarina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The decision on the choice of profession is one of the most important life decisions, which is influenced by many factors. One of them which has a very important role is the family. The aim of this study is to examine whether there are differences in self-efficacy in career decision-making and decision-making styles among secondary school students who have different patterns of family attachment, as well as to determine whether self-efficacy in making career decisions can be predicted on the basis of different decision-making styles. The study included 216 fourth-year secondary school students, 39% of boys and 61% of girls. The questionnaire PAVb, made by Brenen and associates and modified by Kamenov and Jelic, was used for the evaluation of family attachment. Decision-making styles were operationalized through the scale of General Decision Making Styles Questionnaire by Scott and Bruce, while a shortened version of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale, made by Betz et al., was used for measuring self-efficacy in making career decisions. The research results have shown that there are no significant differences in self-efficacy in making career decisions regarding the patterns of family attachment. However, there are significant differences in the styles of decision-making. The rational style is the most dominant among the students who have a secure form of family attachment, the avoidant style is characteristic of those with the occupied form, while the spontaneous style is most commonly used by the students who have the fearful form of family attachment. The results suggest that 31% of the variance of self-efficacy in making career decisions can be explained based on decision-making styles. The rational and intuitive styles of decision-making are positive predictors, while the dependent and avoidant styles are negative predictors of self-efficacy in making career decisions.

Factors influencing parents' decision-making when sending children with respiratory tract infections to nursery.

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Fran E; Rooshenas, Leila; Owen-Smith, Amanda; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Hollinghurst, Sandra; Hay, Alastair D

2016-06-01

Many families rely on formal day care provision, which can be problematic when children are unwell. Attendance in these circumstances may impact on the transmission of infections in both day care and the wider community. Thirty-one semi-structured interviews were conducted to investigate how parents make decisions about nursery care when children are unwell. Topics for discussion included: illness attitudes, current practice during childhood illness and potential nursery policy changes that could affect decision-making. A combination of illness perceptions and external factors affected decision-making. Parents: (i) considered the severity of respiratory and non-respiratory symptoms differently, and stated that while most other contagious illnesses required nursery exclusion, coughs/colds did not; (ii) said decisions were not solely based on nursery policy, but on practical challenges such as work absences, financial penalties and alternative care availability; (iii) identified modifiable nursery policy factors that could potentially help parents keep unwell children at home, potentially reducing transmission of infectious illness. Decision-making is a complex interaction between the child's illness, personal circumstance and nursery policy. Improving our understanding of the modifiable aspects of nursery policies and the extent to which these factors affect decision-making could inform the design and implementation of interventions to reduce the transmission of infectious illness and the associated burden on NHS services. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multicriteria Personnel Selection by the Modified Fuzzy VIKOR Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasim M. Alguliyev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Personnel evaluation is an important process in human resource management. The multicriteria nature and the presence of both qualitative and quantitative factors make it considerably more complex. In this study, a fuzzy hybrid multicriteria decision-making (MCDM model is proposed to personnel evaluation. This model solves personnel evaluation problem in a fuzzy environment where both criteria and weights could be fuzzy sets. The triangular fuzzy numbers are used to evaluate the suitability of personnel and the approximate reasoning of linguistic values. For evaluation, we have selected five information culture criteria. The weights of the criteria were calculated using worst-case method. After that, modified fuzzy VIKOR is proposed to rank the alternatives. The outcome of this research is ranking and selecting best alternative with the help of fuzzy VIKOR and modified fuzzy VIKOR techniques. A comparative analysis of results by fuzzy VIKOR and modified fuzzy VIKOR methods is presented. Experiments showed that the proposed modified fuzzy VIKOR method has some advantages over fuzzy VIKOR method. Firstly, from a computational complexity point of view, the presented model is effective. Secondly, compared to fuzzy VIKOR method, it has high acceptable advantage compared to fuzzy VIKOR method.

Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Chikalov, Igor

2011-01-01

In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

1991-06-01

A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.

Developing and user-testing Decision boxes to facilitate shared decision making in primary care - a study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau François

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Applying evidence is one of the most challenging steps of evidence-based clinical practice. Healthcare professionals have difficulty interpreting evidence and translating it to patients. Decision boxes are summaries of the most important benefits and harms of diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive health interventions provided to healthcare professionals before they meet the patient. Our hypothesis is that Decision boxes will prepare clinicians to help patients make informed value-based decisions. By acting as primers, the boxes will enhance the application of evidence-based practices and increase shared decision making during the clinical encounter. The objectives of this study are to provide a framework for developing Decision boxes and testing their value to users. Methods/Design We will begin by developing Decision box prototypes for 10 clinical conditions or topics based on a review of the research on risk communication. We will present two prototypes to purposeful samples of 16 family physicians distributed in two focus groups, and 32 patients distributed in four focus groups. We will use the User Experience Model framework to explore users' perceptions of the content and format of each prototype. All discussions will be transcribed, and two researchers will independently perform a hybrid deductive/inductive thematic qualitative analysis of the data. The coding scheme will be developed a priori from the User Experience Model's seven themes (valuable, usable, credible, useful, desirable, accessible and findable, and will include new themes suggested by the data (inductive analysis. Key findings will be triangulated using additional publications on the design of tools to improve risk communication. All 10 Decision boxes will be modified in light of our findings. Discussion This study will produce a robust framework for developing and testing Decision boxes that will serve healthcare professionals and patients alike. It

Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Chikalov, Igor; Zielosko, Beata

2011-01-01

In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be 'over-fitted', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes

Older driver failures of attention at intersections: using change blindness methods to assess turn decision accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Caird, Jeff K; Edwards, Christopher J; Creaser, Janet I; Horrey, William J

2005-01-01

A modified version of the flicker technique to induce change blindness was used to examine the effects of time constraints on decision-making accuracy at intersections on a total of 62 young (18-25 years), middle-aged (26-64 years), young-old (65-73 years), and old-old (74+ years) drivers. Thirty-six intersection photographs were manipulated so that one object (i.e., pedestrian, vehicle, sign, or traffic control device) in the scene would change when the images were alternated for either 5 or 8 s using the modified flicker method. Young and middle-aged drivers made significantly more correct decisions than did young-old and old-old drivers. Logistic regression analysis of the data indicated that age and/or time were significant predictors of decision performance in 14 of the 36 intersections. Actual or potential applications of this research include driving assessment and crash investigation.

The development of an online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making: a usability and pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Reumkens, Kelly; Tummers, Marly H E; Gietel-Habets, Joyce J G; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Aalfs, Cora M; van Asperen, Christi J; Ausems, Margreet G E M; Collée, Margriet; Dommering, Charlotte J; Kets, C Marleen; van der Kolk, Lizet E; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C G; van der Weijden, Trudy; de Die-Smulders, Christine E M; van Osch, Liesbeth A D M

2018-05-30

An online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making was developed. A two-phase usability test was conducted among 12 couples (N = 22; 2 persons participated without their partner) at risk for hereditary cancer and 15 health care providers. Couples and health care providers expressed similar suggestions for improvements, and evaluated the modified decision aid as acceptable, easy to use, and comprehensible. The final decision aid was pilot tested (N = 16) with paired sample t tests comparing main outcomes (decisional conflict, knowledge, realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options and decision self-efficacy) before (T0), immediately (T1) and 2 weeks after (T2) use of the decision aid. Pilot testing indicated decreased decisional conflict scores, increased knowledge, and improved realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options, at T1 and T2. No effect was found for couples' decision self-efficacy. The positive findings during usability testing were thus reflected in the pilot study. The decision aid will be further evaluated in a nationwide pretest-posttest study to facilitate implementation in the onco-genetic counselling setting. Ultimately, it is expected that the decision aid will enable end-users to make an informed decision.

The application of VR-GIS to decommissioning decision support system (DDSS) of nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Bo

2005-01-01

Advanced management technique and Decision Support System (DSS) are needed to solve the problems of the nuclear reactor decommissioning decision-making. In this study, a kind of new DSS technique for nuclear reactor decommissioning is introduced. It is based on the Virtual Reality (VR) and Geography Information System (GIS), which combine with the scientific management method, operational research, cybernetics and behavior science. The proposed DDSS (Decommissioning Decision Support System) can provide decision-maker the real time 3-D virtual Environment, GIS information and background material of the decommissioning reactor, help to ascertain the decision-making target, modify the decision module and optimize the dismantling plan. The data from three modules (VR Environment Module, VR-DOSE Management Module and Route Layout GIS Module) are used to continuously update and show the statistic at the same time, and the final advice will be given to decision-maker. (authors)

Healthcare decision-making in end stage renal disease-patient preferences and clinical correlates.

Science.gov (United States)

Jayanti, Anuradha; Neuvonen, Markus; Wearden, Alison; Morris, Julie; Foden, Philip; Brenchley, Paul; Mitra, Sandip

2015-11-14

decision-making. By understanding modifiable and non-modifiable factors which affect patient preferences for involvement in healthcare decision-making, health professionals may acknowledge the need to accommodate individual patient preferences to the extent determined by the individual patient factors.

Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show...... a counterexample to a classical result in insurance economics where an insurance contract with straight deductible is dominated by a coinsurance contract. Finally, I find that a modified Borch rule characterizes the optimal insurance contract with bilateral risk and ambiguity attitudes and heterogeneity in beliefs....

Rational Decision-Making in Inhibitory Control

Science.gov (United States)

Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J.

2011-01-01

An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability. PMID:21647306

Rational decision-making in inhibitory control.

Science.gov (United States)

Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J

2011-01-01

An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability.

Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

Development of a Draft Core Set of Domains for Measuring Shared Decision Making in Osteoarthritis: An OMERACT Working Group on Shared Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Toupin April, Karine; Barton, Jennifer; Fraenkel, Liana; Li, Linda; Grandpierre, Viviane; Guillemin, Francis; Rader, Tamara; Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Jull, Janet; Petkovic, Jennifer; Scholte Voshaar, Marieke; Welch, Vivian; Lyddiatt, Anne; Hofstetter, Cathie; De Wit, Maarten; March, Lyn; Meade, Tanya; Christensen, Robin; Gaujoux-Viala, Cécile; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E.; Boonen, Annelies; Pohl, Christoph; Martin, Richard; Tugwell, Peter

2015-01-01

Objective Despite the importance of shared decision making for delivering patient-centred care in rheumatology, there is no consensus on how to measure its process and outcomes. The aim of this OMERACT working group is to determine the core set of domains for measuring shared decision making in intervention studies in adults with osteoarthritis (OA), from the perspective of patients, health professionals and researchers. Methods We followed the OMERACT Filter 2.0 to develop a draft core domain set, which consisted of: (i) forming an OMERACT working group; (ii) conducting a review of domains of shared decision making; and (iii) obtaining the opinions of stakeholders using a modified nominal group process held at a session activity at the OMERACT 2014 meeting. Results 26 stakeholders from Europe, North America and Australia, including 5 patient research partners, participated in the session activity. Participants identified the following domains for measuring shared decision making to be included as part of the Draft Core Set: 1) Identifying the decision; 2) Exchanging Information; 3) Clarifying views; 4) Deliberating; 5) Making the decision; 6) Putting the decision into practice; and 7) Assessing the impact of the decision. Contextual factors were also suggested. Conclusion We propose a Draft Core Set of shared decision making domains for OA intervention research studies. Next steps include a workshop at OMERACT 2016 to reach consensus on these proposed domains in the wider OMERACT group, as well as detail sub-domains and assess instruments to develop a Core Outcome Measurement Set. PMID:25877502

Development of a Draft Core Set of Domains for Measuring Shared Decision Making in Osteoarthritis: An OMERACT Working Group on Shared Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Toupin-April, Karine; Barton, Jennifer; Fraenkel, Liana; Li, Linda; Grandpierre, Viviane; Guillemin, Francis; Rader, Tamara; Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Jull, Janet; Petkovic, Jennifer; Scholte-Voshaar, Marieke; Welch, Vivian; Lyddiatt, Anne; Hofstetter, Cathie; De Wit, Maarten; March, Lyn; Meade, Tanya; Christensen, Robin; Gaujoux-Viala, Cécile; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E; Boonen, Annelies; Pohl, Christoph; Martin, Richard; Tugwell, Peter S

2015-12-01

Despite the importance of shared decision making for delivering patient-centered care in rheumatology, there is no consensus on how to measure its process and outcomes. The aim of this Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) working group is to determine the core set of domains for measuring shared decision making in intervention studies in adults with osteoarthritis (OA), from the perspectives of patients, health professionals, and researchers. We followed the OMERACT Filter 2.0 method to develop a draft core domain set by (1) forming an OMERACT working group; (2) conducting a review of domains of shared decision making; and (3) obtaining opinions of all those involved using a modified nominal group process held at a session activity at the OMERACT 12 meeting. In all, 26 people from Europe, North America, and Australia, including 5 patient research partners, participated in the session activity. Participants identified the following domains for measuring shared decision making to be included as part of the draft core set: (1) identifying the decision, (2) exchanging information, (3) clarifying views, (4) deliberating, (5) making the decision, (6) putting the decision into practice, and (7) assessing the effect of the decision. Contextual factors were also suggested. We proposed a draft core set of shared decision-making domains for OA intervention research studies. Next steps include a workshop at OMERACT 13 to reach consensus on these proposed domains in the wider OMERACT group, as well as to detail subdomains and assess instruments to develop a core outcome measurement set.

Who do you trust? The impact of facial emotion and behaviour on decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Campellone, Timothy R; Kring, Ann M

2013-01-01

During social interactions, we use available information to guide our decisions, including behaviour and emotional displays. In some situations, behaviour and emotional displays may be incongruent, complicating decision making. This study had two main aims: first, to investigate the independent contributions of behaviour and facial displays of emotion on decisions to trust, and, second, to examine what happens when the information being signalled by a facial display is incongruent with behaviour. Participants played a modified version of the Trust Game in which they learned simulated players' behaviour with or without concurrent displays of facial emotion. Results indicated that displays of anger, but not happiness, influenced decisions to trust during initial encounters. Over the course of repeated interactions, however, emotional displays consistent with an established pattern of behaviour made independent contributions to decision making, strengthening decisions to trust. When facial display and behaviour were incongruent, participants used current behaviour to inform decision making.

Helping patients to reach decisions regarding their treatment: Do 'non-directive' approaches cause systematic bias?

Science.gov (United States)

MacInnes, Joy Anne; Salkovskis, Paul M; Wroe, Abigail; Hope, Tony

2015-11-01

Many patients want help in considering medical information relevant to treatment decisions they have to make or agree to. The present research investigated whether focussing on particular issues relevant to a medical treatment decision (using an apparently non-directive procedure) could systematically bias a treatment decision. In a randomized design, participants (community volunteers, n = 146) were given standard information about treatment of cardiac risk factors by medication (statins). There were four experimental interventions in which the participants focussed on the likely personal relevance of subsets of the information previously given (positive, negative, or mixed aspects) or on irrelevant information. Participants were asked to rate their anticipated likelihood of accepting treatment before and after the experimental intervention. The rating of acceptance of treatment was significantly increased by positive focussing; negative focussing did not significantly alter the decision rating. The results partially replicate similar studies in health screening decisions. Reasons for the differences in results from those obtained in screening studies are considered. It is suggested that negative focussing may have less effect in decisions in which there are few risks. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Decision-making in the context of health behaviour change has been widely described, but there are few experimental studies testing hypothesised strategies. 'Non-directiveness' is often regarded as desirable because it supposedly allows exploration of the decision without influencing it. Previous studies on health screening (but not treatment) have shown that health decision outcomes can be systematically influenced by the way in which a 'non-directive' intervention is implemented. This can be accounted for by a modified subjective expected utility theory previously applied to both health screening and child vaccination decisions. What

Multi-dimensional beam emittance and β-functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buon, J.

1993-05-01

The concept of r.m.s. emittance is extended to the case of several degrees of freedom that are coupled. That multi-dimensional emittance is lower than the product of the emittances attached to each degree of freedom, but is conserved in a linear motion. An envelope-hyperellipsoid is introduced to define the β-functions of the beam envelope. On the contrary of an one-degree of freedom motion, it is emphasized that these envelope functions differ from the amplitude functions of the normal modes of motion as a result of the difference between the Liouville and Lagrange invariants. (author) 4 refs

Future of electronic health records: implications for decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothman, Brian; Leonard, Joan C; Vigoda, Michael M

2012-01-01

The potential benefits of the electronic health record over traditional paper are many, including cost containment, reductions in errors, and improved compliance by utilizing real-time data. The highest functional level of the electronic health record (EHR) is clinical decision support (CDS) and process automation, which are expected to enhance patient health and healthcare. The authors provide an overview of the progress in using patient data more efficiently and effectively through clinical decision support to improve health care delivery, how decision support impacts anesthesia practice, and how some are leading the way using these systems to solve need-specific issues. Clinical decision support uses passive or active decision support to modify clinician behavior through recommendations of specific actions. Recommendations may reduce medication errors, which would result in considerable savings by avoiding adverse drug events. In selected studies, clinical decision support has been shown to decrease the time to follow-up actions, and prediction has proved useful in forecasting patient outcomes, avoiding costs, and correctly prompting treatment plan modifications by clinicians before engaging in decision-making. Clinical documentation accuracy and completeness is improved by an electronic health record and greater relevance of care data is delivered. Clinical decision support may increase clinician adherence to clinical guidelines, but educational workshops may be equally effective. Unintentional consequences of clinical decision support, such as alert desensitization, can decrease the effectiveness of a system. Current anesthesia clinical decision support use includes antibiotic administration timing, improved documentation, more timely billing, and postoperative nausea and vomiting prophylaxis. Electronic health record implementation offers data-mining opportunities to improve operational, financial, and clinical processes. Using electronic health record data

A role of decision-making competency in science learning utilizing a social valuation framework

Science.gov (United States)

Katsuo, Akihito

2005-11-01

The role of decision-making in learning performance has been an occasional topic in the research literature in science education, but rarely has it been a central issue in the field. Nonetheless, recent studies regarding the topic in several fields other than education, such as cognitive neuroscience and social choice theory, indicate the fundamental importance(s) of the topic. This study focuses on a possible role of decision-making in science learning. Initially the study was designed to probe the decision-making ability of elementary school children with a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The experiment involved six Montessori 3rd and 4th grade students as the experimental group and eight public school 3rd and 4th grade students as the control group. The result of the modified IGT revealed a tendency in choice trajectories favoring children at the Montessori school. However, the probabilistic value went below the statistically significant level set by the U test. A further study focused on the impact of better decision-making ability revealed in the first experiment on performances with a science learning module that emphasized collective reasoning. The instruction was based on a set of worksheets with multiple choices on which students were asked to make predictions with and to provide supportive arguments regarding outcomes of experiments introduced in the worksheet. Then the whole class was involved with a real experiment to see which choice was correct. The findings in the study indicated that the Montessori students often obtained higher scores than non-Montessori students in making decision with a tendency of consistency in terms of their choices of the alternatives on the worksheets. The findings of the experiments were supported by a correlational analysis that was performed at the end of study. Although no statistically significant correlations were found, there was a tendency for positively associative shifts between the scores of the

Dispositional Optimism as a Correlate of Decision-Making Styles in Adolescence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paola Magnano

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Despite the numerous psychological areas in which optimism has been studied, including career planning, only a small amount of research has been done to investigate the relationship between optimism and decision-making styles. Consequently, we have investigated the role of dispositional optimism as a correlate of different decision-making styles, in particular, positive for effective styles and negative for ineffective ones (doubtfulness, procrastination, and delegation. Data were gathered through questionnaires administered to 803 Italian adolescents in their last 2 years of high schools with different fields of study, each at the beginning stages of planning for their professional future. A paper questionnaire was completed containing measures of dispositional optimism and career-related decision styles, during a vocational guidance intervention conducted at school. Data were analyzed using stepwise multiple regression. Results supported the proposed model by showing optimism to be a strong correlate of decision-making styles, thereby offering important intervention guidelines aimed at modifying unrealistically negative expectations regarding their future and helping students learn adaptive decision-making skills.

Barriers to and Facilitators of Evidence-Based Decision Making at the Point of Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ann S. O’Malley MD, MPH

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Physicians vary widely in how they treat some health conditions, despite strong evidence favoring certain treatments over others. We examined physicians’ perspectives on factors that support or hinder evidence-based decisions and the implications for delivery systems, payers, and policymakers. Methods: We used Choosing Wisely ® recommendations to create four clinical vignettes for common types of decisions. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 36 specialists to identify factors that support or hinder evidence-based decisions. We examined these factors using a conceptual framework that includes six levels: patients, physicians, practice sites, organizations, networks and hospital affiliations, and the local market. In this model, population characteristics and payer and regulatory factors interact to influence decisions. Results: Patient openness to behavior modification and expectations, facilitated and hindered physicians in making evidence-based recommendations. Physicians’ communication skills were the most commonly mentioned facilitator. Practice site, organization, and hospital system barriers included measures of emergency department throughput, the order in which test options are listed in electronic health records (EHR, lack of relevant decision support in EHRs, and payment incentives that maximize billing and encourage procedures rather than medical management or counseling patients on behavior change. Factors from different levels interacted to undermine evidence-based care. Most physicians received billing feedback, but quality metrics on evidence-based service use were nonexistent for the four decisions in this study. Conclusions and Implications: Additional research and quality improvement may help to modify delivery systems to overcome barriers at multiple levels. Enhancing provider communication skills, improving decision support in EHRs, modifying workflows, and refining the design and interpretation of

International survey of government decisions and recommendations following Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okyar, H.B.

2011-01-01

A key issue in nuclear emergency management is the need to keep decision makers informed of the details of a situation which is evolving quickly. For example, decision makers need the latest information, and periodic updates, when making decisions regarding advice to citizens, policies on the import and export of food and goods, and industries that may be affected. During the 17 March 2011 meeting of the Inter-Agency Committee on Radiological and Nuclear Emergencies (IACRNE), which was the first of a series of meetings following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, participants discussed the possibility of establishing a 'database' of the decisions and recommendations made by various governments at an early stage of the Fukushima accident, as well as updating and modifying the database as long as it remained of use. The IACRNE agreed that this information would be very useful, and mandated the NEA to try to collect it. In total, 34 countries (26 NEA members) participated in the survey. The survey results were consolidated into a single document indicating the country, the decision taken or recommendation made, the applicable date and the population concerned. It is important to note that countries submitted differing amounts of information at different points in time during the accident's progression. The survey results indicate that an international overview is required to better understand how national governmental decision-making could be further co-ordinated. The NEA has undertaken some initiatives to analyse the types of decisions made, including the information available and necessary to support such decisions, and the implications for co-ordination needs and mechanisms

Legality, legitimacy and formal and informal decision-making processes: when does a decision become legitimate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwetkoff, C.

2004-01-01

A few words on the purpose of this paper are given by way of introduction. A brief analysis will be made of the relationship between legality and legitimacy in relation to decision-making processes and within the context of the policies concerning the public management of technological risks. The aim is to raise questions and outline some reflections based on the theory of the state, from the perspective of the conditions of the institutionalization of power. I shall first clarify a few conceptual points. The notion of legality refers to the notion of compliance with legal standards, that is to say, with the law. Is the decision made by a person empowered by law so do to (legal competence)? Is it taken in compliance with legal procedure? And are the effects implicitly in keeping with the spirit of the law? The legitimacy of the power of those who govern, or the legitimacy of their decisions, is not determined solely by legal standards but rather, is a matter of individual and social representation or view. As Hobbes says, in essence, to govern is to convince: to convince people of the rightfulness of the source of the power of those who govern and of the action or public policies that they formulate. The paper is organised around three propositions: 1. The role of the legitimacy or social acceptability of public policies has always been an element of the way all political systems function. This role, however, occupies an increasingly important place on the political agenda in a societal decision-making context that has undergone irreversible changes. 2. Although the essence of the social legitimacy of public policies remains the same, the conditions, mechanisms and criteria evolve. 3. The critical centrality of social legitimacy, together with the evolution of the criteria for legitimate decision, today modify the decision-making mechanisms that were established in response to the requirements of classical democracy. We observe a political organisation i n the

Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

2012-01-01

Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

[Genetically modified organisms in food--production, detection and risks].

Science.gov (United States)

Zeljezić, Davor

2004-11-01

The first genetically modified plant (GMP) was a tobacco resistant to antibiotics in 1983. In 1996, the first genetically altered crop, a delayed-ripening tomato was commercially released. In the year 2003, the estimated global area of GM crops for was 67.7 million hectares. To produce such a plant a gene of interest has to be isolated from the donor. Together with a promoter, terminator sequence and marker gene it has to be introduced into the plant cell which is then stimulated to generate a whole GMP expressing new characteristics (herbicide/insect resistance, delayed ripening). The last few months have seen a strong public debate over genetically modified organisms which has raised scientific, economic, political, and ethical issues. Some questions concerning the safety of GMPs are still to be answered, and decisions about their future should be based on scientifically validated information.

Dissociable processes underlying decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task: a new integrative framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Napoli Antonio

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is a common paradigm used to study the interactions between emotions and decision making, yet little consensus exists on the cognitive process determining participants' decisions, what affects them, and how these processes interact with each other. A novel conceptual framework is proposed according to which behavior in the IGT reflects a balance between two dissociable processes; a cognitively demanding process that tracks each option's long-term payoff, and a lower-level, automatic process that is primarily sensitive to loss frequency and magnitude. Methods A behavioral experiment was carried out with a modified version of IGT. In this modified version, participants went through an additional phase of interaction, designed to measure performance without further learning, in which no feedback on individual decisions was given. A secondary distractor task was presented in either the first or the second phase of the experiment. Behavioral measures of performance tracking both payoff and frequency sensitivity in choices were collected throughout the experiment. Results Consistent with our framework, the results confirmed that: (a the two competing cognitive processes can be dissociated; (b that learning from decision outcomes requires central cognitive resources to estimate long-term payoff; and (c that the decision phase itself can be carried out during an interfering task once learning has occurred. Conclusion The experimental results support our novel description of the cognitive processes underlying performance in the Iowa Gambling Task. They also suggest that patients' impairments in this and other gambling paradigms can originate from a number of different causes, including a failure in allocating resources among cognitive strategies. This latter interpretation might be particularly useful in explaining the impairments of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions and, by extension

The conscious mind and its emergent properties; an analysis based on decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, James A

2011-08-01

The process of conscious and unconscious decision making is analyzed using decision theory. An essential part of an optimum decision strategy is the assessment of values and costs associated with correct and incorrect decisions. In the case of unconscious decisions this involves an automatic process akin to computation using numerical values. But for conscious decisions the conscious mind must experience the outcome of the decision as pleasure or pain. It is suggested that the rules of behavior are programmed in our genes but modified by experience of the society in which we are reared. Our unconscious then uses the rules to reward or punish our conscious mind for the decisions it makes. This is relevant to concepts of altruism and religion in society. It is consistent with the observation that we prefer beauty to utility. The decision theory equations also explain the paradox that a single index of happiness can be applied in society. The symptoms of mental illness can be due to appropriate or inappropriate action by the unconscious. The former indicates a psychological conflict between conscious and unconscious decision making. Inappropriate action indicates that a pathological process has switched on genetic networks that should be switched off. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

2015-11-15

Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-06-06

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set of decision trees for the given decision table which was previously only attainable by brute-force algorithms. We study decision tables with many-valued decisions (each row may contain multiple decisions) because they are more reasonable models of data in many cases. To address this problem in a broad sense, we consider not only decision trees but also inhibitory trees where terminal nodes are labeled with “̸= decision”. Inhibitory trees can sometimes describe more knowledge from datasets than decision trees. As for cost functions, we consider depth or average depth to minimize time complexity of trees, and the number of nodes or the number of the terminal, or nonterminal nodes to minimize the space complexity of trees. We investigate the multi-stage optimization of trees relative to some cost functions, and also the possibility to describe the whole set of strictly optimal trees. Furthermore, we study the bi-criteria optimization cost vs. cost and cost vs. uncertainty for decision trees, and cost vs. cost and cost vs. completeness for inhibitory trees. The most interesting application of the developed technique is the creation of multi-pruning and restricted multi-pruning approaches which are useful for knowledge representation and prediction. The experimental results show that decision trees constructed by these approaches can often outperform the decision trees constructed by the CART algorithm. Another application includes the comparison of 12 greedy heuristics for single- and bi-criteria optimization (cost vs. cost) of trees. We also study the three approaches (decision tables with many-valued decisions, decision tables with most common decisions, and decision tables with generalized decisions) to handle

Facilitating political decisions using species distribution models to assess restoration measures in heavily modified estuaries.

Science.gov (United States)

Heuner, Maike; Weber, Arnd; Schröder, Uwe; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Schröder, Boris

2016-09-15

The European Water Framework Directive requires a good ecological potential for heavily modified water bodies. This standard has not been reached for most large estuaries by 2015. Management plans for estuaries fall short in linking implementations between restoration measures and underlying spatial analyses. The distribution of emergent macrophytes - as an indicator of habitat quality - is here used to assess the ecological potential. Emergent macrophytes are capable of settling on gentle tidal flats where hydrodynamic stress is comparatively low. Analyzing their habitats based on spatial data, we set up species distribution models with 'elevation relative to mean high water', 'mean bank slope', and 'length of bottom friction' from shallow water up to the vegetation belt as key predictors representing hydrodynamic stress. Effects of restoration scenarios on habitats were assessed applying these models. Our findings endorse species distribution models as crucial spatial planning tools for implementing restoration measures in modified estuaries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Modified Bird-Mating Optimization with Hill-Climbing for Connection Decisions of Transformers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Chia Ou

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper endeavors to apply a hybrid bird-mating optimization approach to connection decisions of distribution transformers. It is expected that with the aid of hybrid bird-mating approach, the voltage imbalance and deviation can be mitigated, hence ensuring a satisfactory supplying power more effectively. To evaluate the effectiveness of this method, it has been tested through practical distribution systems with comparisons to other methods. Test results help confirm the feasibility of the approach, serving as beneficial references for the improvement of electric power grid operations.

Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carsten Murawski

Full Text Available Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

Use of Decision Tables to Simulate Management in SWAT+

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey G. Arnold

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Decision tables have been used for many years in data processing and business applications to simulate complex rule sets. Several computer languages have been developed based on rule systems and they are easily programmed in several current languages. Land management and river–reservoir models simulate complex land management operations and reservoir management in highly regulated river systems. Decision tables are a precise yet compact way to model the rule sets and corresponding actions found in these models. In this study, we discuss the suitability of decision tables to simulate management in the river basin scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+ model. Decision tables are developed to simulate automated irrigation and reservoir releases. A simple auto irrigation application of decision tables was developed using plant water stress as a condition for irrigating corn in Texas. Sensitivity of the water stress trigger and irrigation application amounts were shown on soil moisture and corn yields. In addition, the Grapevine Reservoir near Dallas, Texas was used to illustrate the use of decision tables to simulate reservoir releases. The releases were conditioned on reservoir volumes and flood season. The release rules as implemented by the decision table realistically simulated flood releases as evidenced by a daily Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE of 0.52 and a percent bias of −1.1%. Using decision tables to simulate management in land, river, and reservoir models was shown to have several advantages over current approaches, including: (1 mature technology with considerable literature and applications; (2 ability to accurately represent complex, real world decision-making; (3 code that is efficient, modular, and easy to maintain; and (4 tables that are easy to maintain, support, and modify.

Decision-oriented environmental assessment: An empirical study of its theory and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pischke, Frederik; Cashmore, Matthew

2006-01-01

The potential advantages of a decision-oriented theory of environmental assessment have long been recognised, but it is only in recent years that this topic has received concerted attention. This research advanced contemporary debate on environmental assessment through an empirically-informed evaluation of strategic theoretical and methodological issues associated with the practical application of decision-oriented theory. This was undertaken by critically analysing the decision-oriented Environmental Impact Assessment system of the German Development Cooperation (a bilateral development assistance agency) using a modified version of a recent conceptual and methodological development, Analytical Strategic Environmental Assessment. The results indicate that some aspects of decision-oriented theory offer considerable potential for environmental assessment process management, and should be employed routinely. Yet uncertainty remains about whether certain core concepts, notably the detailed a priori description of decision processes, can be achieved in practice. The analysis also indicates that there is considerably more common ground in many contemporary debates about environmental assessment than the literature, which has tended towards polarisation suggests. The significance of this research is that it recognises and highlights the contribution of decision-oriented theory to refocusing attention on the substantive intent of this globally significant policy tool

Multi-criteria decision making with linguistic labels: a comparison of two methodologies applied to energy planning

OpenAIRE

Afsordegan, Arayeh; Sánchez Soler, Monica; Agell Jané, Núria; Cremades Oliver, Lázaro Vicente; Zahedi, Siamak

2014-01-01

This paper compares two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches based on linguistic label assessment. The first approach consists of a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology introduced by Kaya and Kahraman in 2011. The second approach, introduced by Agell et al. in 2012, is based on qualitative reasoning techniques for ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with linguistic labels. Both approaches are applied to a case of assessment and selection of the most suita...

Automated Decision Tree Classification of Corneal Shape

Science.gov (United States)

Twa, Michael D.; Parthasarathy, Srinivasan; Roberts, Cynthia; Mahmoud, Ashraf M.; Raasch, Thomas W.; Bullimore, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Purpose The volume and complexity of data produced during videokeratography examinations present a challenge of interpretation. As a consequence, results are often analyzed qualitatively by subjective pattern recognition or reduced to comparisons of summary indices. We describe the application of decision tree induction, an automated machine learning classification method, to discriminate between normal and keratoconic corneal shapes in an objective and quantitative way. We then compared this method with other known classification methods. Methods The corneal surface was modeled with a seventh-order Zernike polynomial for 132 normal eyes of 92 subjects and 112 eyes of 71 subjects diagnosed with keratoconus. A decision tree classifier was induced using the C4.5 algorithm, and its classification performance was compared with the modified Rabinowitz–McDonnell index, Schwiegerling’s Z3 index (Z3), Keratoconus Prediction Index (KPI), KISA%, and Cone Location and Magnitude Index using recommended classification thresholds for each method. We also evaluated the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for each classification method. Results Our decision tree classifier performed equal to or better than the other classifiers tested: accuracy was 92% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.97. Our decision tree classifier reduced the information needed to distinguish between normal and keratoconus eyes using four of 36 Zernike polynomial coefficients. The four surface features selected as classification attributes by the decision tree method were inferior elevation, greater sagittal depth, oblique toricity, and trefoil. Conclusions Automated decision tree classification of corneal shape through Zernike polynomials is an accurate quantitative method of classification that is interpretable and can be generated from any instrument platform capable of raw elevation data output. This method of pattern classification is extendable to other classification

Older Americans' risk-benefit preferences for modifying the course of Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauber, A Brett; Johnson, F Reed; Fillit, Howard; Mohamed, Ateesha F; Leibman, Christopher; Arrighi, H Michael; Grundman, Michael; Townsend, Raymond J

2009-01-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a progressive, ultimately fatal neurodegenerative illness affecting millions of patients, families, and caregivers. Effective disease-modifying therapies for AD are desperately needed, but none currently exist on the market. Thus, accelerating the discovery, development, and approval of new disease-modifying drugs for AD is a high priority for individuals, physicians, and medical decision makers. Potentially disease-modifying drugs likely will have significant therapeutic benefits but also may have treatment-related risks. We quantified older Americans' treatment-related risk tolerance by eliciting their willingness to accept the risk of treatment-related death or permanent severe disability in exchange for modifying the course of AD. A stated-choice survey instrument was administered to 2146 American residents 60 years of age and older. On average, subjects were willing to accept a 1-year risk of treatment-related death or permanent severe disability from stroke of over 30% for a treatment that prevents AD from progressing beyond the mild stage. Thus, most people in this age cohort are willing to accept considerable risks in return for disease-modifying benefits of new AD drugs. These results are consistent with other studies indicating that individuals view AD as a serious, life threatening illness that imposes heavy burdens on both patients and caregivers.

New rather than old? For working memory tasks with abstract patterns the P3 and the single-trial delta response are larger for modified than identical probe stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathes, B; Schmiedt, J; Schmiedt-Fehr, C; Pantelis, C; Basar-Eroglu, C

2012-07-01

Memory-guided decision making is dynamic and context-dependent, even though many studies describe an enhancement of the P3 for recognized items in memory tasks ("old-new effect"). This study utilized a delay-dependent working memory task during which decision making could be optimized by focusing attention on detected changes instead of recognized similarities. Mean P3 amplitude and delta activity were analyzed from participants who classified probe stimuli as identical or modified. The P3 amplitudes were larger for modified than for identical probes, even when the probe occurred 4,000 ms after the primary stimulus. Enhanced single-trial amplitude, trial-by-trial consistency, and frontoparietal phase coherence of delta activity contributed to the larger P3 for the modified probe. Thus, context-dependent attentional resource allocation supporting memory-guided decisions might explain the enhancement of the P3 for specific probe types. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Ethical case deliberation and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gracia, Diego

2003-01-01

During the last thirty years different methods have been proposed in order to manage and resolve ethical quandaries, specially in the clinical setting. Some of these methodologies are based on the principles of Decision-making theory. Others looked to other philosophical traditions, like Principlism, Hermeneutics, Narrativism, Casuistry, Pragmatism, etc. This paper defends the view that deliberation is the cornerstone of any adequate methodology. This is due to the fact that moral decisions must take into account not only principles and ideas, but also emotions, values and beliefs. Deliberation is the process in which everyone concerned by the decision is considered a valid moral agent, obliged to give reasons for their own points of view, and to listen to the reasons of others. The goal of this process is not the reaching of a consensus but the enrichment of one's own point of view with that of the others, increasing in this way the maturity of one's own decision, in order to make it more wise or prudent. In many cases the members of a group of deliberation will differ in the final solution of the case, but the confrontation of their reasons will modify the perception of the problem of everyone. This is the profit of the process. Our moral decisions cannot be completely rational, due to the fact that they are influenced by feelings, values, beliefs, etc., but they must be reasonable, that is, wise and prudent. Deliberation is the main procedure to reach this goal. It obliges us to take others into account, respecting their different beliefs and values and prompting them to give reasons for their own points of view. This method has been traditional in Western clinical medicine all over its history, and it should be also the main procedure for clinical ethics.

Epistemic motivation affects the processing of negative emotional stimuli in interpersonal decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenyu eWei

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The present electrophysiological study investigated the role of the need for cognitive closure (NFC in emotional processing. The NFC is conceptualized as an epistemic motive that is related to how and why people seek out information in social environments. Event-related potentials were recorded while individuals with high NFC (i.e., low epistemic motivation or low NFC (i.e., high epistemic motivation performed a modified Ultimatum Game, in which the emotions of happy or angry game agents were employed to predict their most likely offer. High-NFC participants more closely adhered to the decisions rules of the game than low-NFC individuals did. The electrophysiological results showed that the dispositional NFC modified early perceptual components (N170, N200, and P200. The potentials showed that high-NFC subjects had a processing bias to angry faces, whereas low-NFC individuals exhibited no such effects. These findings indicated that high-NFC individuals were more sensitive to negative emotional stimuli than low-NFC individuals in an interpersonal decision-making task.

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

CERN Document Server

Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

2012-01-01

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

ECOGEN - Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krogh, P. H

2007-01-01

ECOGEN is a project funded by the EU under the 6th Framework Programme. Based on results obtained from soil biodiversity studies and economic evaluations, ECOGEN assessed the impact on soil organisms of different agricultural management practices, including those involving genetically modified (GM...... Policy were then evaluated. These two major factors - ecological and economic - were then integrated into decision support models for predicting the overall consequences of introducing GM crops into an agricultural system. Bt-maize line MON 810, resistant to a widespread insect pest called the European...... and economic results were integrated into a decision support model to facilitate the assessment of the impact of various cropping systems on soil quality and economics. In conclusion, the ECOGEN results indicate no difference of biological relevance in the impact on soil organisms between Bt-maize line MON 810...

The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Budetta, P.

2003-04-01

This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Ravi Rajan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

2015-11-11

Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn

The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

[Labeling of food containing genetically modified organisms: international policies and Brazilian legislation].

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Marin, Victor Augustus

2011-08-01

The increase in surface area planted with genetically modified crops, with the subsequent transfer of such crops into the general environment for commercial trade, has raised questions about the safety of these products. The introduction of the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety has led to the need to produce information and ensure training in this area for the implementation of policies on biosafety and for decision-making on the part of governments at the national, regional and international level. This article presents two main standpoints regarding the labeling of GM products (one adopted by the United States and the other by the European Union), as well as the position adopted by Brazil and its current legislation on labeling and commercial release of genetically modified (GM) products.

The origin of behavioral bursts in decision-making circuitry.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Sorribes

2011-06-01

Full Text Available From ants to humans, the timing of many animal behaviors comes in bursts of activity separated by long periods of inactivity. Recently, mathematical modeling has shown that simple algorithms of priority-driven behavioral choice can result in bursty behavior. To experimentally test this link between decision-making circuitry and bursty dynamics, we have turned to Drosophila melanogaster. We have found that the statistics of intervals between activity periods in endogenous activity-rest switches of wild-type Drosophila are very well described by the Weibull distribution, a common distribution of bursty dynamics in complex systems. The bursty dynamics of wild-type Drosophila walking activity are shown to be determined by this inter-event distribution alone and not by memory effects, thus resembling human dynamics. Further, using mutant flies that disrupt dopaminergic signaling or the mushroom body, circuitry implicated in decision-making, we show that the degree of behavioral burstiness can be modified. These results are thus consistent with the proposed link between decision-making circuitry and bursty dynamics, and highlight the importance of using simple experimental systems to test general theoretical models of behavior. The findings further suggest that analysis of bursts could prove useful for the study and evaluation of decision-making circuitry.

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-04-25

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules

General least-squares fitting procedures to minimize the volume of a hyperellipsoid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadlinger, E.A.

1979-01-01

Several methods for determining the shape parameters, which in two dimensions are the Courant-Snyder parameters, and the volume of an ellipse or hyperellipse that represent a set of phase-space points in a two or more dimensional hyperspace are presented. The ellipse parameters are useful for matching a beam to an accelerating or transport system and in studies of emittance growth. The fitting procedure minimizes the total volume of a hyperellipse by adjusting the ellipse shape parameters. The total volume is the sum of the individual particle volumes defined by the hyperellipse that passes through the phase-space point of a particle. A two-dimensional space is considered first; the results are then generalized to higher dimensions. Computer programs using these techniques were written. 1 figure

Improving the food waste composting facilities site selection for sustainable development using a hybrid modified MADM model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kung-Ming; Lin, Sheng-Hau; Hsieh, Jing-Chzi; Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung

2018-05-01

With the growth of population and the development of urbanization, waste management has always been a critical global issue. Recently, more and more countries have found that food waste constitutes the majority of municipal waste, if they are disposed of properly, will bring more benefits in sustainable development. Regarding the issue of selecting and improving the location to make the disposal facility towards achieving the aspiration level for sustainable development, since it involves multiple and complicated interaction factors about environment, society, and economy which have to be considered properly in the decision-making process of mutual influence relationship. It is basically a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) issue, a difficult problem which has been obsessing the governments of many countries is widely studied and discussed. This study uses the new hybrid modified MADM model, as follows, first to build an influential network relation map (INRM) via DEMATEL technique, next to confirm the influential weightings via DANP (DEMATEL-based ANP), and then to construct a decision-making model via a hybrid modified VIKOR method to improve and select the location for remaining the best disposal facilities. Finally, an empirical case study is illustrated to demonstrate that the proposed model can be effective and useful. In finding the process of decision making, environmental pollution is the main concern of many people in the area, but actually it is the resistance by the general public that has to be considered with first priority. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2006-01-01

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2018-01-01

All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-13

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Affective decision-making moderates the effects of automatic associations on alcohol use among drug offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappelli, Christopher; Ames, Susan; Shono, Yusuke; Dust, Mark; Stacy, Alan

2017-09-01

This study used a dual-process model of cognition in order to investigate the possible influence of automatic and deliberative processes on lifetime alcohol use in a sample of drug offenders. The objective was to determine if automatic/implicit associations in memory can exert an influence over an individual's alcohol use and if decision-making ability could potentially modify the influence of these associations. 168 participants completed a battery of cognitive tests measuring implicit alcohol associations in memory (verb generation) as well as their affective decision-making ability (Iowa Gambling Task). Structural equation modeling procedures were used to test the relationship between implicit associations, decision-making, and lifetime alcohol use. Results revealed that among participants with lower levels of decision-making, implicit alcohol associations more strongly predicted higher lifetime alcohol use. These findings provide further support for the interaction between a specific decision function and its influence over automatic processes in regulating alcohol use behavior in a risky population. Understanding the interaction between automatic associations and decision processes may aid in developing more effective intervention components.

The Many Faces of Compliance: The Supreme Court's Decision in "Horne v. Flores"

Science.gov (United States)

Thro, William E.

2009-01-01

At first blush, the Supreme Court's recent decision in "Horne v. Flores" (2009) appears to be about the proper standard for determining when to modify a previous judgment, a topic that would interest only civil procedure geeks. Yet, on closer examination, "Horne" is about giving local and state officials discretion to solve education problems and,…

The Importance of Source: A Mixed Methods Analysis of Undergraduate Students' Attitudes toward Genetically Modified Food

Science.gov (United States)

Ruth, Taylor K.; Rumble, Joy N.; Gay, Keegan D.; Rodriguez, Mary T.

2016-01-01

Even though science says genetically modified (GM) foods are safe, many consumers remain skeptical of the technology. Additionally, the scientific community has trouble communicating to the public, causing consumers to make uninformed decisions. The Millennial Generation will have more buying power than any other generation before them, and more…

Sensitivity to reward and punishment in Parkinson's disease: an analysis of behavioral patterns using a modified version of the Iowa gambling task.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka; Tsuruya, Natsuko; Kawamura, Mitsuru

2010-08-01

Studies using the Iowa gambling task (IGT) have shown that patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) make disadvantageous choices characterized by immediate large rewards and delayed larger punishments. These results can be interpreted in two ways: either PD patients are hypersensitive to immediate outcomes and/or insensitive to delayed consequences or PD patients are hypersensitive to rewards and/or insensitive to punishments. In this study, we used a modified IGT in which selection of cards from the disadvantageous decks leads to immediate, small punishments and delayed, smaller rewards and selection of cards from the advantageous decks leads to immediate, large punishments and delayed larger rewards. We then compared the results obtained using this modified IGT with those obtained using the original IGT. If the PD patients were hypersensitive to the immediate outcomes of decisions, they would make disadvantageous choices in both the original and the modified IGTs. Differences between the results of the original and modified tasks would indicate impairments in balancing reward and punishment. In our analysis, PD patients selected advantageous decks and gained as much as normal subjects during the modified IGT, but they selected disadvantageous decks during the original IGT. These results indicate that the decision-making difficulties of PD patients are caused by their inability to balance reward and punishment and their hypersensitivity to reward and/or insensitivity to punishment.

Evaluating the 2008 consensus conference on genetically modified foods in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Mei-Fang

2015-07-01

Genetically modified foods have become one of the most popular topics for deliberative exercises involving ordinary citizens worldwide. This paper examines the Taiwanese consensus conference on GM foods held in June 2008, and the implications and limitations of the public deliberations. The consensus conference facilitated multiparty dialogues and enhanced citizens' knowledge, and affected their attitudes. This study demonstrates the ways contextual factors have influenced the outcome of the citizens' deliberative practices, including the government's conventional technocratic decision-making style, the strong influence of the U.S. government, the political and technological culture, the government's framing of economic development concerns, and a lack of pressure from civil society to compel the government to formally respond to their concerns. The consensus conference had a limited effect on policy decision-making, and seemed to serve as a socio-political experiment. © The Author(s) 2013.

How Uncertain Information on Service Capacity Influences the Intermodal Routing Decision: A Fuzzy Programming Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Sun

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Capacity uncertainty is a common issue in the transportation planning field. However, few studies discuss the intermodal routing problem with service capacity uncertainty. Based on our previous study on the intermodal routing under deterministic capacity consideration, we systematically explore how service capacity uncertainty influences the intermodal routing decision. First of all, we adopt trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to describe the uncertain information of the service capacity, and further transform the deterministic capacity constraint into a fuzzy chance constraint based on fuzzy credibility measure. We then integrate such fuzzy chance constraint into the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP model proposed in our previous study to develop a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model. To enable the improved model to be effectively programmed in the standard mathematical programming software and solved by exact solution algorithms, a crisp equivalent linear reformulation of the fuzzy chance constraint is generated. Finally, we modify the empirical case presented in our previous study by replacing the deterministic service capacities with trapezoidal fuzzy ones. Using the modified empirical case, we utilize sensitivity analysis and fuzzy simulation to analyze the influence of service capacity uncertainty on the intermodal routing decision, and summarize some interesting insights that are helpful for decision makers.

NP-completeness of weakly convex and convex dominating set decision problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joanna Raczek

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The convex domination number and the weakly convex domination number are new domination parameters. In this paper we show that the decision problems of convex and weakly convex dominating sets are \\(NP\\-complete for bipartite and split graphs. Using a modified version of Warshall algorithm we can verify in polynomial time whether a given subset of vertices of a graph is convex or weakly convex.

Decision-making process of Kala Azar care: results from a qualitative study carried out in disease endemic areas of Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Shiva Raj; Supakankunti, Siripen; Khan, M Mahmud

2013-07-12

Analysis of consumer decision making in the health sector is a complex process of comparing feasible alternatives and evaluating the levels of satisfaction associated with the relevant options. This paper makes an attempt to understand how and why consumers make specific decisions, what motivates them to adopt a specific health intervention, and what features they find attractive in each of the options. The study used a descriptive-explanatory design to analyze the factors determining the choices of healthcare providers. Information was collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. The results suggest that the decision making related to seeking healthcare for Kala Azar (KA) treatment is a complex, interactive process. Patients and family members follow a well-defined road map for decision making. The process of decision making starts from the recognition of healthcare needs and is then modified by a number of other factors, such as indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources. Household and individual characteristics also play important roles in facilitating the process of decision making. The results from the group discussions and in-depth interviews are consistent with the idea that KA patients and family members follow the rational approach of weighing the costs against the benefits of using specific types of medical care. The process of decision making related to seeking healthcare follows a complex set of steps and many of the potential factors affect the decision making in a non-linear fashion. Our analysis suggests that it is possible to derive a generalized road map of the decision-making process starting from the recognition of healthcare needs, and then modifying it to show the influences of indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources.

The intertemporal choice behaviour. The role of emotions in a multi-agent decision problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelarosa Longo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Decision Neuroscience has shown positive and negative side of emotions in intertemporal choices. Psychological evidences, indeed, point out anomalies (impulsivity modifies the discount function of each individual and the false consensus effect which increases the degree of consensus in a multi-agent decision problem. An experiment (Engelmann and Strobel 2004 demonstrates that the relevance of the false consensus effect depends on the difficulty of the information retrieval, so the underlying mechanism is an information processing deficiency rather than egocentricity. We demonstrate that emotions can not cause anomalies in a cooperative strategic interaction because information is explicit.

Root cause analysis of JCO accident based on decision-making model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohda, Takehisa; Inoue, Koichi; Nojiri, Yoshihiko

2000-01-01

This paper discusses root causes of the JCO accident by considering the reasons why the workers made their decision to choose the illegal actions leading to a criticality accident. Analyzing their decision process compared with the normal decision process, the direct cause of their incorrect decision is estimated to be the lack of knowledge about the danger of nuclear materials and the criticality. Further, the lack of knowledge is considered to be due to organizational or environmental factors such as (a) the ignorance of safety by the overall JCO company which pursued low costs and high profit, (b) the JCO's custom and practice of modifying operational rules without permission, and (c) the JCO's inappropriate training or education where the criticality or its danger was not taught. All these background factors are related to the overconfidence of plant safety, a false trust that such a criticality accident will never occur at the plant. Since the recognition of the danger or risk of a system is considered to be the starting point for its safety management and operation, all information about the danger and safety should be correctly communicated to everyone related to the system. (author)

Visualization of decision processes using a cognitive architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Livingston, Mark A.; Murugesan, Arthi; Brock, Derek; Frost, Wende K.; Perzanowski, Dennis

2013-01-01

Cognitive architectures are computational theories of reasoning the human mind engages in as it processes facts and experiences. A cognitive architecture uses declarative and procedural knowledge to represent mental constructs that are involved in decision making. Employing a model of behavioral and perceptual constraints derived from a set of one or more scenarios, the architecture reasons about the most likely consequence(s) of a sequence of events. Reasoning of any complexity and depth involving computational processes, however, is often opaque and challenging to comprehend. Arguably, for decision makers who may need to evaluate or question the results of autonomous reasoning, it would be useful to be able to inspect the steps involved in an interactive, graphical format. When a chain of evidence and constraint-based decision points can be visualized, it becomes easier to explore both how and why a scenario of interest will likely unfold in a particular way. In initial work on a scheme for visualizing cognitively-based decision processes, we focus on generating graphical representations of models run in the Polyscheme cognitive architecture. Our visualization algorithm operates on a modified version of Polyscheme's output, which is accomplished by augmenting models with a simple set of tags. We provide example visualizations and discuss properties of our technique that pose challenges for our representation goals. We conclude with a summary of feedback solicited from domain experts and practitioners in the field of cognitive modeling.

Decision-making in administrative proceeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lončar Zoran J.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Administrative decision-making by official who conducting the administrative procedure may have a number of advantages over the decisionmaking by the senior official which manages by the administrative authority. However, to make that such a novelty have positive effects, it is necessary, next to the amendments to the Law on Administrative Procedure, to create a number of legal and factual assumptions, on whom are based highly politicized and professionalised administrative systems today. In order to create the legal conditions for the introduction of innovations in administrative proceedings in the Republic of Serbia, it is necessary to appropriately modify, firstly certain provisions of the Law on Public Administration, as the basic systemic regulation in this area, and then the Law on Civil Servants, as the basic status regulation, so the civil servant career become less dependent on the will of officials who manage by the administrative authorities. Also, it is essential to solve a number of other issues on a proper legal way, such as way of harmonizing administrative practice within the same administrative authority, a way of solving the appeals in the case of first instance decisions made by independent administrative authority, different rules for conflict of interest with the state officers who may be authorized officials in administrative proceedings, etc.

Opioid Modulation of Value-Based Decision-Making in Healthy Humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikemo, Marie; Biele, Guido; Willoch, Frode; Thomsen, Lotte; Leknes, Siri

2017-08-01

Modifying behavior to maximize reward is integral to adaptive decision-making. In rodents, the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) system encodes motivation and preference for high-value rewards. Yet it remains unclear whether and how human MORs contribute to value-based decision-making. We reasoned that if the human MOR system modulates value-based choice, this would be reflected by opposite effects of agonist and antagonist drugs. In a double-blind pharmacological cross-over study, 30 healthy men received morphine (10 mg), placebo, and the opioid antagonist naltrexone (50 mg). They completed a two-alternative decision-making task known to induce a considerable bias towards the most frequently rewarded response option. To quantify MOR involvement in this bias, we fitted accuracy and reaction time data with the drift-diffusion model (DDM) of decision-making. The DDM analysis revealed the expected bidirectional drug effects for two decision subprocesses. MOR stimulation with morphine increased the preference for the stimulus with high-reward probability (shift in starting point). Compared to placebo, morphine also increased, and naltrexone reduced, the efficiency of evidence accumulation. Since neither drug affected motor-coordination, speed-accuracy trade-off, or subjective state (indeed participants were still blinded after the third session), we interpret the MOR effects on evidence accumulation efficiency as a consequence of changes in effort exerted in the task. Together, these findings support a role for the human MOR system in value-based choice by tuning decision-making towards high-value rewards across stimulus domains.

ECOGEN - Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops (preface)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krogh, P. H.; Griffiths, B. S.

2007-01-01

to integrate the combined soil ecological and economic effects of introducing systems including genetically modified (GM) crops by performing data mining and building decision support systems. The project involved eight academic partners from five EU countries and an input from Monsanto. Maize expressing......The biodiversity of, and processes performed by soil organisms make up a crucial part of the natural basis for agricultural production and, therefore, have subsequent economic consequences. ECOGEN was a research initiative funded under the European Commission Framework 5 programme, designed...

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahar eAyal

2015-07-01

Full Text Available A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

Science.gov (United States)

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions. PMID:26284011

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

Regulatory Approval Decisions in the Presence of Market Externalities: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

OpenAIRE

Furtan, William Hartley; Gray, Richard S.; Holzman, J.J.

2005-01-01

This study examines the optimal approval strategy for genetically modified (GM) wheat varieties in Canada and the United States. Without an affordable segregation system, the introduction of GM wheat will create a market for "lemons" that will result in the loss of important export markets. Using a differentiated product trade model for spring wheat, with endogenous technology pricing, a payoff matrix is generated for the possible approval outcomes. Results show that the existence of the mark...

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-01-01

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important

Evaluating the role of behavioral factors and practical constraints in the performance of an agent-based model of farmer decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John

2016-01-01

Farmer decision making models often focus on the behavioral assumptions in the representation of the decision making, applying bounded rationality theory to shift away from the generally criticized profit maximizer approach. Although complex on the behavioral side, such representations are usually...... simplistic with respect to the available choice options in farmer decision making and practical constraints related to farming decisions. To ascertain the relevance of modeling different facets of farmer decision making, we developed an agent based model of farmer decision making on crop choice, fertilizer...... and pesticide usage using an existing economic farm optimization model. We then gradually modified the model to include practical agronomic constraints and assumptions reflecting bounded rationality, and assessed the explanatory power of the added model components. The assessments were based on comparisons...

MARKETING RESEARCH OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS BY GEORGIAN FARMERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NUGZAR TODUA

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Although, genetically modified (GM crops have to be a broadly debated topic in different countries, there has been much less attention devoted to farmer attitudes towards GM crops. This paper attempts to research farmers’ insights on GM crops in Georgia through February-March 2014. An in-depth survey of 611 farmers revealed that respondents lack sufficient knowledge about genetic engineering. They tend to have a negative attitude towards GM crops and are strongly against of import and adoption of GM seeds. An empirical examination based on analysis of variance and Pearson’s correlation coefficient verified that both education and age were significant determinants of awareness of farmers about genetically engineered crops, while income used to have no significant influence on the farmers’ decision to adopt GM crops. In addition, relationship between awareness about genetic engineering and farmers’ decision to adopt GM crops has to be insignificant, as well.

Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pabst, Stephan; Brand, Matthias; Wolf, Oliver T

2013-01-01

Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values (EVs) across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain). The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST (p-TSST). To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants made less risky decisions in the gain domain compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing EVs across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants made less risky decisions compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.

A Grounded Theory Study of Aircraft Maintenance Technician Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Norcross, Robert

Aircraft maintenance technician decision-making and actions have resulted in aircraft system errors causing aircraft incidents and accidents. Aircraft accident investigators and researchers examined the factors that influence aircraft maintenance technician errors and categorized the types of errors in an attempt to prevent similar occurrences. New aircraft technology introduced to improve aviation safety and efficiency incur failures that have no information contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, aircraft maintenance technicians must use only approved aircraft maintenance documents to repair, modify, and service aircraft. This qualitative research used a grounded theory approach to explore the decision-making processes and actions taken by aircraft maintenance technicians when confronted with an aircraft problem not contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. The target population for the research was Federal Aviation Administration licensed aircraft and power plant mechanics from across the United States. Nonprobability purposeful sampling was used to obtain aircraft maintenance technicians with the experience sought in the study problem. The sample population recruitment yielded 19 participants for eight focus group sessions to obtain opinions, perceptions, and experiences related to the study problem. All data collected was entered into the Atlas ti qualitative analysis software. The emergence of Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making themes regarding Aircraft Maintenance Manual content, Aircraft Maintenance Technician experience, and legal implications of not following Aircraft Maintenance Manuals surfaced. Conclusions from this study suggest Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making were influenced by experience, gaps in the Aircraft Maintenance Manuals, reliance on others, realizing the impact of decisions concerning aircraft airworthiness, management pressures, and legal concerns

The Utility of the Frailty Index in Clinical Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Khatry, K; Peel, N M; Gray, L C; Hubbard, R E

2018-01-01

Using clinical vignettes, this study aimed to determine if a measure of patient frailty would impact management decisions made by geriatricians regarding commonly encountered clinical situations. Electronic surveys consisting of three vignettes derived from cases commonly seen in an acute inpatient ward were distributed to geriatricians. Vignettes included patients being considered for intensive care treatment, rehabilitation, or coronary artery bypass surgery. A frailty index was generated through Comprehensive electronic Geriatric Assessment. For each vignette, respondents were asked to make a recommendation for management, based on either a brief or detailed amount of clinical information and to reconsider their decision after the addition of the frailty index. The study suggests that quantification of frailty might aid the clinical judgment now employed daily to proceed with usual care, or to modify it based on the vulnerability of the person to whom it is aimed.

Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack

2014-01-01

Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295

Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Ule

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

Modified cyanobacteria

Science.gov (United States)

Vermaas, Willem F J.

2014-06-17

Disclosed is a modified photoautotrophic bacterium comprising genes of interest that are modified in terms of their expression and/or coding region sequence, wherein modification of the genes of interest increases production of a desired product in the bacterium relative to the amount of the desired product production in a photoautotrophic bacterium that is not modified with respect to the genes of interest.

Consumer preferences of genetically modified foods of vegetal and animal origin in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berta Schnettler

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Given the debate generated by Genetically Modified (GM foods in developed and developing countries, the aim was to evaluate the importance of determining factors in the preference of consumers in Temuco and Talca in central-southern Chile for GM foods using conjoint analysis and to determine the existence of different market segments using a survey of 800 people. Using conjoint analysis, it was established that, in general, genetic modification was a more important factor than either brand or price in the consumer's decision to purchase either food. Cluster analysis identified three segments: the largest (51.4% assigned greatest importance to brand and preferred genetically modified milk and tomato sauce; the second group (41.0% gave greatest importance to the existence of genetic manipulation and preferred non-genetically modified foods; the smallest segment (7.6% mainly valued price and preferred milk and tomato sauce with no genetic manipulation. The three segments rejected the store brand and preferred to pay less for both foods. The results are discussed based on studies conducted in developed and developing countries.

Do Political Attitudes Affect Consumer Choice? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Study with Genetically Modified Bread in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Aerni

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Independent of the left-right model of ideological structure, genetically modified organisms (GMOs in food and agriculture are resented across the political spectrum in Switzerland. In the absence of any real experience with genetically modified (GM food but faced with continuous exposure to warning messages in the media, conditioned feelings related to such a politically sensitive product may have a significant influence on revealed consumer choice. In our large-scale field study, we examined this assumption by selling three types of bread labeled as ‘made with organic corn’, ‘made with genetically modified corn’ and ‘made with conventional corn’ respectively in five locations across Switzerland using different price scenarios and selling groups. Customers who decided to buy bread also received an envelope containing a questionnaire about their prior political attitude expressed through their voting decision in a national referendum on a five-year ban on GMOs in 2005. The results demonstrate that consumer purchase decisions are determined by contextual factors not captured by general political attitudes. Surprisingly, the mere presence of GM food did have a positive impact on overall sales. The assumption that consumers would feel turned off by the mere presence of GM food for political reasons can therefore be safely discarded.

Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-03-01

Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Comparison of approximate formulas for decision levels and detection limits for paired counting with the exact results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potter, W.E.

2005-01-01

The exact probability density function for paired counting can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order when the expected blank count is known. Exact decision levels and detection limits can be computed in a straightforward manner. For many applications perturbing half-integer corrections to Gaussian distributions yields satisfactory results for decision levels. When there is concern about the uncertainty for the expected value of the blank count, a way to bound the errors of both types using confidence intervals for the expected blank count is discussed. (author)

Characterizing the Buyer Decision Process: the ZMOT model in Chile’s technology sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Escobar Farfán

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study presents an updated application model that identifies the intervening factors in the buyer decision process. In traditional research, the consumer is said to confront two moments of truth before making the decision to buy: first, when encountering the gondola, and then again while experiencing the product. Nevertheless, innovations in information technology have modified this traditional view to include the “Zero Moment of Truth”, known as ZMOT, a name popularized by Google. This analysis is based on the concept of the Zero Moment of Truth which relates to the process that consumers live prior to the purchase decision in which they gather information about the product or service. This study is justified by the absence of research on the ZMOT concept in Chile. To determine the factors involved in the purchase decision, a quantitative methodology was used, through the application of a survey that analyzed three perspectives: the influencing factors during the purchase decision, the activities carried out during the ZMOT, and, finally, the actions carried out after the completion of the purchase and information that will serve for future buyers is gathered. With the data obtained, an exploratory factor analysis was carried out, generating a preliminary multi-dimensional model to describe the factors in the buyer decision process during the information and experience gathering phase known as ZMOT.

Alcohol Dependence and Altered Engagement of Neural Networks in Risky Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xi eZhu

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Alcohol dependence is associated with heightened risk tolerance and altered decision- making. This raises the question as to whether alcohol dependent patients (ADP are incapable of proper risk assessment. We investigated how healthy controls (HC and ADP engage neural networks to cope with the increased cognitive demands of risky decisions. We collected fMRI data while 34 HC and 16 ADP played a game that included safe and risky trials. In safe trials, participants accrued money at no risk of a penalty. In risky trials, reward and risk simultaneously increased as participants were instructed to decide when to stop a reward accrual period. If the participant failed to stop before an undisclosed time, the trial would bust and participants would not earn the money from that trial. Independent Component Analysis was used to identify networks engaged during the anticipation and the decision execution of risky compared with safe trials. Like HC, ADP demonstrated distinct network engagement for safe and risky trials at anticipation. However, at decision execution, ADP exhibited severely reduced discrimination in network engagement between safe and risky trials. Although ADP behaviorally responded to risk they failed to appropriately modify network engagement as the decision continued, leading ADP to assume similar network engagement regardless of risk prospects. This may reflect disorganized network switching and a facile response strategy uniformly adopted by ADP across risk conditions. We propose that aberrant salience network (SN engagement in ADP might contribute to ineffective network switching and that the role of the SN in risky decisions warrants further investigation.

DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

1991-02-01

Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

Game Performance Decisions of International Baccalaureate Students in Korea and Students in a Traditional American High School

Science.gov (United States)

Everhart, Brett; Everhart, Kim; Everhart, Tyler

2016-01-01

The educational experiences of students engaged in different contexts of learning, particularly curriculum delivered and international travel and residence experiences may be related to problem-solving skills and game decisions and efficiency of high school students engaged in modified game play during physical education class. This study explores…

Transport PPP decisions in Korea: value for money assessment and risk quantification

OpenAIRE

Park, Ji Hong

2014-01-01

Value for money (VFM) assessment has been adopted worldwide as a public private partnership (PPP) decision methodology. In terms of quantitative assessment, this method considers only the public sector cost, assuming completion delay does not occur between delivery alternatives, so it is difficult to use where systematic completion delays in the conventional delivery are expected to occur like in Korea. Therefore, in this research a Modified VFM methodology was developed to consider completio...

Activation of midbrain and ventral striatal regions implicates salience processing during a modified beads task.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Esslinger

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Metacognition, i.e. critically reflecting on and monitoring one's own reasoning, has been linked behaviorally to the emergence of delusions and is a focus of cognitive therapy in patients with schizophrenia. However, little is known about the neural processing underlying metacognitive function. To address this issue, we studied brain activity during a modified beads task which has been used to measure a "Jumping to Conclusions" (JTC bias in schizophrenia patients. METHODS: We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify neural systems active in twenty-five healthy subjects when solving a modified version of the "beads task", which requires a probabilistic decision after a variable amount of data has been requested by the participants. We assessed brain activation over the duration of a trial and at the time point of decision making. RESULTS: Analysis of activation during the whole process of probabilistic reasoning showed an extended network including the prefronto-parietal executive functioning network as well as medial parieto-occipital regions. During the decision process alone, activity in midbrain and ventral striatum was detected, as well as in thalamus, medial occipital cortex and anterior insula. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that probabilistic reasoning shares neural substrates with executive functions. In addition, our finding that brain regions commonly associated with salience processing are active during probabilistic reasoning identifies a candidate mechanism that could underlie the behavioral link between dopamine-dependent aberrant salience and JTC in schizophrenia. Further studies with delusional schizophrenia patients will have to be performed to substantiate this link.

The decisive future of inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

A grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of hydrogen technologiess in Life Cycle Sustainability perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzardo, Alessandro; Ren, Jingzheng; Mazzi, Anna

2012-01-01

The objective of this research is to develop a grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of the best renewable energy technology (including hydrogen) using a life cycle sustainability perspective. The traditional grey relational analysis has been modified to better address...... the issue of uncertainty. The proposed methodology allows multi-person to participate in the decision-making process and to give linguistic evaluation on the weights of the criteria and the performance of the alternative technologies. In this paper, twelve hydrogen production technologies have been assessed...... using the proposed methodology, electrolysis of water technology by hydropower has been considered to be the best technology for hydrogen production according to the decision-making group....

Modifier 22 for acetabular fractures in morbidly obese patients: does it affect reimbursement?

Science.gov (United States)

Bergin, Patrick F; Kneip, Christopher; Pierce, Christine; Hendrix, Stephen T; Porter, Scott E; Graves, Matthew L; Russell, George V

2014-11-01

Modifier 22 in the American Medical Association's Current Procedural Terminology (CPT®) book is a billing code for professional fees used to reflect an increased amount of skill, time, and work required to complete a procedure. There is little disagreement that using this code in the setting of surgery for acetabulum fractures in the obese patient is appropriate; however, to our knowledge, the degree to which payers value this additional level of complexity has not been determined. We asked whether (1) the use of Modifier 22 increased reimbursements in morbidly obese patients and (2) there was any difference between private insurance and governmental payer sources in treatment of Modifier 22. Over a 4-year period, we requested immediate adjudication with payers when using Modifier 22 for morbidly obese patients with acetabular fractures. We provided payers with evidence of the increased time and effort required in treating this population. Reimbursements were calculated for morbidly obese and nonmorbidly obese patients. Of the 346 patients we reviewed, 57 had additional CPT® codes or modifiers appended to their charges and were excluded, leaving 289 patients. Thirty (10%) were morbidly obese and were billed with Modifier 22. Fifty-three (18%) were insured by our largest private insurer and 69 (24%) by governmental programs (Medicare/Medicaid). Eight privately insured patients (15%) and seven governmentally insured patients (10%) were morbidly obese and were billed with Modifier 22. For our primary question, we compared reimbursement rates between patients with and without Modifier 22 for obesity within the 289 patients. We then performed the same comparison for the 53 privately insured patients and the 69 governmentally insured patients. Overall, there was no change in mean reimbursement when using Modifier 22 in morbidly obese patients, compared to nonmorbidly obese patients (USD 2126 versus USD 2149, p Level IV, economic and decision analyses. See Instructions

Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, Kelly; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerry

2011-05-15

Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides "fail safe" protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.

Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

OpenAIRE

Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

2011-01-01

Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

1986-08-01

The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

1993-11-01

The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

Development of a Draft Core Set of Domains for Measuring Shared Decision Making in Osteoarthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toupin-April, Karine; Barton, Jennifer; Fraenkel, Liana

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Despite the importance of shared decision making for delivering patient-centered care in rheumatology, there is no consensus on how to measure its process and outcomes. The aim of this Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) working group is to determine the core set of domains...... for measuring shared decision making in intervention studies in adults with osteoarthritis (OA), from the perspectives of patients, health professionals, and researchers. METHODS: We followed the OMERACT Filter 2.0 method to develop a draft core domain set by (1) forming an OMERACT working group; (2) conducting...... a review of domains of shared decision making; and (3) obtaining opinions of all those involved using a modified nominal group process held at a session activity at the OMERACT 12 meeting. RESULTS: In all, 26 people from Europe, North America, and Australia, including 5 patient research partners...

Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

2015-03-01

The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1996-01-01

A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

Consumer knowledge and attitudes about genetically modified food products and labelling policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchione, Melissa; Feldman, Charles; Wunderlich, Shahla

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between consumer knowledge, attitudes and behaviours towards foods containing genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the prevalence of GMO labelling in northern New Jersey supermarkets. This cross-sectional study surveyed 331 adults, New Jersey supermarket customers (mean age 26 years old, 79.8% women). The results show a strong, positive correlation between consumer attitudes towards foods not containing GMOs and purchasing behaviour (Pearson's r = 0.701, p behaviour (Pearson's r = 0.593, p consumers in making informed purchase decisions.

Gout: a review of non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

MacFarlane, Lindsey A.; Kim, Seoyoung C.

2014-01-01

Gout is a common inflammatory arthritis triggered by the crystallization of uric acid within the joints. Gout affects millions worldwide and has an increasing prevalence. Recent research has been carried out to better qualify and quantify the risk factors predisposing individuals to gout. These can largely be broken into non-modifiable risk factors such as sex, age, race, and genetics, and modifiable risk factors such as diet and lifestyle. Increasing knowledge of factors predisposing certain individuals to gout could potentially lead to improved preventive practices. This review summarizes the non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors associated with development of gout. PMID:25437279

Detection of Genetically Modified Food: Has Your Food Been Genetically Modified?

Science.gov (United States)

Brandner, Diana L.

2002-01-01

Explains the benefits and risks of genetically-modified foods and describes methods for genetically modifying food. Presents a laboratory experiment using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to detect foreign DNA in genetically-modified food. (Contains 18 references.) (YDS)

Horses for courses: risk information and decision making in the regulation of nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Kandlikar, Milind

2011-01-01

Despite the widespread commercial use of nanomaterials, regulators currently have a limited ability to characterize and manage risks. There is a paucity of data available on the current production and use of nanomaterials and extreme scientific uncertainty on most aspects of the risk assessment “causal chain.” Regulatory decisions will need to be made in the near-term in the absence formal quantitative risk assessments. The article draws on examples from three different regulatory contexts—baseline data monitoring efforts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Department of Toxic Substances Control, prioritization of risk information in the context of environmental releases, and mitigation of occupational risks—to argue for the use of decision-analytic tools in lieu of formal risk assessment to help regulatory bodies. We advocate a “horses for courses” approach whereby existing analytical tools (such as risk ranking, multi-criteria decision analysis, and “control banding” approaches) might be adapted to regulators’ goals in particular decision contexts. While efforts to build new and modify existing tools are underway, they need greater support from funding and regulatory agencies because innovative approaches are needed for the “extreme” uncertainty problems that nanomaterials pose.

The Effects Of Decision Framing Influences On Decision Performance

OpenAIRE

David Shelby Harrison; Sanela Porca

2011-01-01

This study investigates the effects of two components of decision framing [commitment and verbalization] in decision optimization, and how information quality impacts framing effects on decision performance. The theory of cognitive dissonance predicts that commitment to a decision will foster insensitivity to alternative choices. We find that such bias can be beneficial in certain decision strategies, and more powerfully influential as information quality worsens. We used an interactive compu...

Modified scintigrafic technique for amputation level selection in diabetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dwars, B.J.; Rauwerda, J.A.; Broek, T.A.A. van den; Rij, G.L. van; Hollander, W. den; Heidendal, G.A.K.

1989-01-01

A modified /sup 123/I-antipyrine cutaneous washout technique for the selection of amputation levels is described. The modifications imply a reduction of time needed for the examination by simultaneous recordings on different levels, and a better patient acceptance by reducing inconvenience. Furthermore, both skin perfusion pressure (SPP) and skin blood flow (SBF) are determined from each clearance curve. In a prospective study among 26 diabetic patients presenting with ulcers or gangrene of the foot, both SPP and SBF were determined preoperatively on the selected level of surgery and on adjacent amputation sites. These 26 patients underwent 12 minor foot amputations and 17 major lower limb amputations. Two of these amputations failed to heal. SBF values appeared indicative for the degree of peripheral vascular disease, as low SBF values were found with low SPP values. SPP determinations revealed good predictive values: All surgical procedures healed when SPP>20 mmHg, but 2 out of 3 failed when SPP<2 mmHg. If SPP values would have been decisive, the amputation would have been converted to a lower level in 6 out of 17 cases. This modified scintigrafic technique provides accurate objective information for amputation level selection.

Optical Coherence Tomography-Guided Decisions in Retinoblastoma Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Soliman, Sameh E; VandenHoven, Cynthia; MacKeen, Leslie D; Héon, Elise; Gallie, Brenda L

2017-06-01

Assess the role of handheld optical coherence tomography (OCT) in guiding management decisions during diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up of eyes affected by retinoblastoma. Retrospective, noncomparative, single-institution case series. All children newly diagnosed with retinoblastoma from January 2011 to December 2015 who had an OCT session during their active treatment at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) in Toronto, Canada. The OCT sessions for fellow eyes of unilateral retinoblastoma without any suspicious lesion and those performed more than 6 months after the last treatment were excluded. Data collected included age at presentation, sex, family history, RB1 mutation status, 8th edition TNMH cancer staging and International Intraocular Retinoblastoma Classification (IIRC), and number of OCT sessions per eye. Details of each session were scored for indication-related details (informative or not) and assessed for guidance (directive or not), diagnosis (staging changed, new tumors found or excluded), treatment (modified, stopped, or modality shifted), or follow-up modified. Frequency of OCT-guided management decisions, stratified by indication and type of guidance (confirmatory vs. influential). Sixty-three eyes of 44 children had 339 OCT sessions over the course of clinical management (median number of OCT scans per eye, 5; range, 1-15). The age at presentation and presence of a heritable RB1 mutation significantly correlated with an increased number of OCT sessions. Indications included evaluation of post-treatment scar (55%) or fovea (16%), and posterior pole scanning for new tumors (11%). Of all sessions, 92% (312/339) were informative; 19 of 27 noninformative sessions had large, elevated lesions; of these, 14 of 19 were T2a or T2b (IIRC group C or D) eyes. In 94% (293/312) of the informative sessions, OCT directed treatment decisions (58%), diagnosis (16%), and follow-up (26%). Optical coherence tomography influenced and changed management from pre

Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephan ePabst

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain. The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST. To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants of the gain domain decided less risky compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing expected values across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants decided less risky compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set

Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

1987-01-01

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1998-01-01

To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

Modifiable risk factors for increased arterial stiffness in outpatient nephrology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Usama Elewa

Full Text Available Arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. Arterial stiffness increases with age. However, modifiable risk factors such as smoking, BP and salt intake also impact on PWV. The finding of modifiable risk factors may lead to the identification of treatable factors, and, thus, is of interest to practicing nephrologist. We have now studied the prevalence and correlates of arterial stiffness, assessed by PWV, in 191 patients from nephrology outpatient clinics in order to identify modifiable risk factors for arterial stiffness that may in the future guide therapeutic decision-making. PWV was above normal levels for age in 85/191 (44.5% patients. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age, systolic BP, diabetes mellitus, serum uric acid and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy or calcium-containing medication were independent predictors of PWV. A new parameter, Delta above upper limit of normal PWV (Delta PWV was defined to decrease the weight of age on PWV values. Delta PWV was calculated as (measured PWV - (upper limit of the age-adjusted PWV values for the general population. Mean±SD Delta PWV was 0.76±1.60 m/sec. In multivariate analysis, systolic blood pressure, active smoking and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy remained independent predictors of higher delta PWV, while age, urinary potassium and beta blocker therapy were independent predictors of lower delta PWV. In conclusion, arterial stiffness was frequent in nephrology outpatients. Systolic blood pressure, smoking, serum uric acid, calcium-containing medications, potassium metabolism and non-use of beta blockers are modifiable factors associated with increased arterial stiffness in Nephrology outpatients.

Less power or powerless? Egocentric empathy gaps and the irony of having little versus no power in social decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Handgraaf, M.J.J.; van Dijk, E.; Vermunt, R.C.; Wilke, H.A.M.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

2008-01-01

The authors investigate the effect of power differences and associated expectations in social decision making. Using a modified ultimatum game, the authors show that allocators lower their offers to recipients when the power difference shifts in favor of the allocator. Remarkably, however, when

Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

2014-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

Jordanian Physicians' Attitudes toward Disclosure of Cancer Information and Patient Participation in Treatment Decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Obeidat, Rana; Khrais, Huthaifah I

2016-01-01

This study aims to determine the attitude of Jordanian physicians toward disclosure of cancer information, comfort and use of different decision-making approaches, and treatment decision making. A descriptive, comparative research design was used. A convenience sample of 86 Jordanian medical and radiation oncologists and surgeons practicing mainly in oncology was recruited. A modified version of a structured questionnaire was used for data collection. The questionnaire is a valid measure of physicians' views of shared decision making. Almost 91% of all physicians indicated that the doctor should tell the patient and let him/her decide if the family should know of an early-stage cancer diagnosis. Physicians provide abundant information about the extent of the disease, the side effects and benefits of the treatment, and details of the treatment procedures. They also provided less information on the effects of treatment on the sexuality, mood, and family of the patient. Almost 48% of the participating physicians reported using shared decision making as their usual approach for treatment decision making, and 67% reported that they were comfortable with this approach. The main setting of clinical activity was the only factor associated with physicians' usual approach to medical decision making. Moreover, age, years of experience, and main setting of clinical activity were associated with physicians' comfort level with the shared approach. Although Jordanian physicians appreciate patient autonomy, self-determination, and right to information, paternalistic decision making and underuse of the shared decision-making approach persist. Strategies that target both healthcare providers and patients must be employed to promote shared decision making in the Jordanian healthcare system.

Short term decisions for long term problems - The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred

2010-01-01

This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-10-01

In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.

Minimization of decision tree depth for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider multi-label decision tables that have a set of decisions attached to each row. Our goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions for each row by using decision tree as our tool. Considering our target to minimize the depth of the decision tree, we devised various kinds of greedy algorithms as well as dynamic programming algorithm. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of depth of decision trees.

Biosafety decisions and perceived commercial risks: The role of GM-free private standards

OpenAIRE

Gruère, Guillaume; Sengupta, Debdatta

2009-01-01

"We herein investigate the observed discrepancy between real and perceived commercial risks associated with the use of genetically modified (GM) products in developing countries. We focus particularly on the effects of GM-free private standards set up by food companies in Europe and other countries on biotechnology and biosafety policy decisions in food-exporting developing countries. Based on field visits made to South Africa, Namibia, and Kenya in June 2007, and secondary information from t...

Women's decision making and experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Louise; McKenzie-McHarg, Kirstie; Horsch, Antje

2013-01-01

This study sought to increase understanding of women's thoughts and feelings about decision making and the experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth (intrauterine death after 24 weeks' gestation). Eleven women were interviewed, 8 of whom were pregnant at the time of the interview. Modified grounded theory was used to guide the research methodology and to analyze the data. A model was developed to illustrate women's experiences of decision making in relation to subsequent pregnancy and of subsequent pregnancy itself. The results of the current study have significant implications for women who have experienced stillbirth and the health professionals who work with them. Based on the model, women may find it helpful to discuss their beliefs in relation to healing and health professionals to provide support with this in mind. Women and their partners may also benefit from explanations and support about the potentially conflicting emotions they may experience during this time. © 2013 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

The Neural Basis of Social Influence in a Dictator Decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenyu Wei

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Humans tend to reduce inequitable distributions. Previous neuroimaging studies have shown that inequitable decisions are related to brain regions that associated with negative emotion and signaling conflict. In the highly complex human social environment, our opinions and behaviors can be affected by social information. In current study, we used a modified dictator game to investigate the effect of social influence on making an equitable decision. We found that the choices of participants in present task was influenced by the choices of peers. However, participants’ decisions were influenced by equitable rather than inequitable group choices. fMRI results showed that brain regions that related to norm violation and social conflict were related to the inequitable social influence. The neural responses in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, rostral cingulate zone, and insula predicted subsequent conforming behavior in individuals. Additionally, psychophysiological interaction analysis revealed that the interconnectivity between the dorsal striatum and insula was elevated in advantageous inequity influence versus no-social influence conditions. We found decreased functional connectivity between the medial prefrontal cortex and insula, supplementary motor area, posterior cingulate gyrus and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in the disadvantageous inequity influence versus no-social influence conditions. This suggests that a disadvantageous inequity influence may decrease the functional connectivity among brain regions that are related to reward processes. Thus, the neural mechanisms underlying social influence in an equitable decision may be similar to those implicated in social norms and reward processing.

The Neural Basis of Social Influence in a Dictator Decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Zhenyu; Zhao, Zhiying; Zheng, Yong

2017-01-01

Humans tend to reduce inequitable distributions. Previous neuroimaging studies have shown that inequitable decisions are related to brain regions that associated with negative emotion and signaling conflict. In the highly complex human social environment, our opinions and behaviors can be affected by social information. In current study, we used a modified dictator game to investigate the effect of social influence on making an equitable decision. We found that the choices of participants in present task was influenced by the choices of peers. However, participants' decisions were influenced by equitable rather than inequitable group choices. fMRI results showed that brain regions that related to norm violation and social conflict were related to the inequitable social influence. The neural responses in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, rostral cingulate zone, and insula predicted subsequent conforming behavior in individuals. Additionally, psychophysiological interaction analysis revealed that the interconnectivity between the dorsal striatum and insula was elevated in advantageous inequity influence versus no-social influence conditions. We found decreased functional connectivity between the medial prefrontal cortex and insula, supplementary motor area, posterior cingulate gyrus and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in the disadvantageous inequity influence versus no-social influence conditions. This suggests that a disadvantageous inequity influence may decrease the functional connectivity among brain regions that are related to reward processes. Thus, the neural mechanisms underlying social influence in an equitable decision may be similar to those implicated in social norms and reward processing.

Effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibition on neural activity related to risky decisions and monetary rewards in healthy males

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Macoveanu, Julian; Fisher, Patrick M; Haahr, Mette E

2014-01-01

the involvement of the normally functioning 5HT-system in decision-making under risk and processing of monetary rewards. The data suggest that prolonged SSRI treatment might reduce emotional engagement by reducing the impact of risk during decision-making or the impact of reward during outcome evaluation....... to placebo, the SSRI intervention did not alter individual risk-choice preferences, but modified neural activity during decision-making and reward processing: During the choice phase, SSRI reduced the neural response to increasing risk in lateral orbitofrontal cortex, a key structure for value-based decision-making...... functional MRI (fMRI) to investigate how a three-week fluoxetine intervention influences neural activity related to risk taking and reward processing. Employing a double-blinded parallel-group design, 29 healthy young males were randomly assigned to receive 3 weeks of a daily dose of 40 mg fluoxetine...

Decision aids for people facing health treatment or screening decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Col, Nananda F; Bennett, Carol L; Barry, Michael J; Eden, Karen B; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary; Lyddiatt, Anne; Thomson, Richard; Trevena, Lyndal; Wu, Julie H C

2014-01-28

Decision aids are intended to help people participate in decisions that involve weighing the benefits and harms of treatment options often with scientific uncertainty. To assess the effects of decision aids for people facing treatment or screening decisions. For this update, we searched from 2009 to June 2012 in MEDLINE; CENTRAL; EMBASE; PsycINFO; and grey literature. Cumulatively, we have searched each database since its start date including CINAHL (to September 2008). We included published randomized controlled trials of decision aids, which are interventions designed to support patients' decision making by making explicit the decision, providing information about treatment or screening options and their associated outcomes, compared to usual care and/or alternative interventions. We excluded studies of participants making hypothetical decisions. Two review authors independently screened citations for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. The primary outcomes, based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS), were:A) 'choice made' attributes;B) 'decision-making process' attributes.Secondary outcomes were behavioral, health, and health-system effects. We pooled results using mean differences (MD) and relative risks (RR), applying a random-effects model. This update includes 33 new studies for a total of 115 studies involving 34,444 participants. For risk of bias, selective outcome reporting and blinding of participants and personnel were mostly rated as unclear due to inadequate reporting. Based on 7 items, 8 of 115 studies had high risk of bias for 1 or 2 items each.Of 115 included studies, 88 (76.5%) used at least one of the IPDAS effectiveness criteria: A) 'choice made' attributes criteria: knowledge scores (76 studies); accurate risk perceptions (25 studies); and informed value-based choice (20 studies); and B) 'decision-making process' attributes criteria: feeling informed (34 studies) and feeling clear about values (29

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

OpenAIRE

Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled fr...

Decisions at hand: a decision support system on handhelds.

Science.gov (United States)

Zupan, B; Porenta, A; Vidmar, G; Aoki, N; Bratko, I; Beck, J R

2001-01-01

One of the applications of clinical information systems is decision support. Although the advantages of utilizing such aids have never been theoretically disputed, they have been rarely used in practice. The factor that probably often limits the utility of clinical decision support systems is the need for computing power at the very site of decision making--at the place where the patient is interviewed, in discussion rooms, etc. The paper reports on a possible solution to this problem. A decision-support shell LogReg is presented, which runs on a handheld computer. A general schema for handheld-based decision support is also proposed, where decision models are developed on personal computers/workstations, encoded in XML and then transferred to handhelds, where the models are used within a decision support shell. A use case where LogReg has been applied to clinical outcome prediction in crush injury is presented.

Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

Response inhibition and impulsive decision-making in sexual offenders against children.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Daniel; Laier, Christian; Brand, Matthias; Bockshammer, Tamara; Welsch, Robin; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-05-31

Current theories view impulsivity as an important factor in the explanation of sexual offending. While impulsivity itself is a multidimensional construct, response inhibition and impulsive decision-making are frequently discussed subcomponents. Impulsivity in sexual offenders could be triggered by sexual cues with high emotional significance. The present study compared response inhibition abilities and the degree of impulsive decision-making between 63 child sexual abusers and 63 nonoffending controls. A Go/No-Go task was used to assess response inhibition, while the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Game of Dice Task (GDT) were used for the assessment of decision-making. In contrast to previous studies, modified versions of the Go/No-Go task and the IGT were used, including pictures of the Not Real People-Set depicting nude adults and children. Child sexual abusers showed more deficits in response inhibition in the Go/No-Go task. Furthermore, decision-making was especially impaired by the presence of child images in child sexual abusers with more intense pedophilic sexual interests. In contrast, in the nonoffending controls the presence of preferred sexual cues (pictures of women) improved decision-making performance. No differences in overall GDT performance were found between the groups; however, child sexual abusers chose the riskiest option more frequently than nonoffending controls. In line with theoretical assumptions about the processes underlying sexual offending, child sexual abusers show more deficits in neuropsychological functioning, which may be related to more impulsive behaviors. These impairments could be triggered by the presence of sexually relevant cues. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

'My kidneys, my choice, decision aid': supporting shared decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie

2015-06-01

For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C

2017-12-01

Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

2015-01-01

Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Optimization of decision rule complexity for decision tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2013-10-01

We describe new heuristics to construct decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions from the point of view of length and coverage which are enough good. We use statistical test to find leaders among the heuristics. After that, we compare our results with optimal result obtained by dynamic programming algorithms. The average percentage of relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 6.89% (15.89%, respectively) for leaders which seems to be a promising result. © 2013 IEEE.

Prediction of flood abnormalities for improved public safety using a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

Science.gov (United States)

Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S

2006-01-01

It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other

Project Decision Chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

2015-01-01

To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

Construction of α-decision trees for tables with many-valued decisions

KAUST Repository

Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

2011-01-01

The paper is devoted to the study of greedy algorithm for construction of approximate decision trees (α-decision trees). This algorithm is applicable to decision tables with many-valued decisions where each row is labeled with a set of decisions. For a given row, we should find a decision from the set attached to this row. We consider bound on the number of algorithm steps, and bound on the algorithm accuracy relative to the depth of decision trees. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

Online, Interactive Option Grid Patient Decision Aids and their Effect on User Preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Scalia, Peter; Durand, Marie-Anne; Kremer, Jan; Faber, Marjan; Elwyn, Glyn

2018-01-01

Randomized trials have shown that patient decision aids can modify users' preferred healthcare options, but research has yet to identify the attributes embedded in these tools that cause preferences to shift. The aim of this study was to investigate people's preferences as they used decision aids for 5 health decisions and, for each of the following: 1) determine if using the interactive Option Grid led to a pre-post shift in preferences; 2) determine which frequently asked questions (FAQs) led to preference shifts; 3) determine the FAQs that were rated as the most important as users compared options. Interactive Option Grid decision aids enable users to view attributes of available treatment or screening options, rate their importance, and specify their preferred options before and after decision aid use. The McNemar-Bowker paired test was used to compare stated pre-post preferences. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to investigate possible associations between covariates and preference shifts. Overall, 626 users completed the 5 most-used tools: 1) Amniocentesis test: yes or no? ( n = 73); 2) Angina: treatment options ( n = 88); 3) Breast cancer: surgical options ( n = 265); 4) Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test: yes or no? ( n = 82); 5) Statins for heart disease risk: yes or no? ( n = 118). The breast cancer, PSA, and statins Option Grid decision aids generated significant preference shifts. Generally, users shifted their preference when presented with the description of the available treatment options, and the risk associated with each option. The use of decision aids for some, but not all health decisions, was accompanied by a shift in user preferences. Users typically valued information associated with risks, and chose more risk averse options after completing the interactive tool.

How do sex ratios in China influence marriage decisions and intra-household resource allocation?

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Maria

2016-06-01

This article examines how imbalanced sex ratios influence marriage decisions and household bargaining. Using data from the 1982 Chinese census, the traditional "availability ratio" is modified to reflect the degree to which men tend to marry women from different cohorts. This ratio reflects the average tendency of men to prefer women who are close in age to women who are several years younger than them by weighting cohort sizes using the proportion of people in the population who marry someone born in a different cohort. Given that men generally marry younger women, this ratio varies independently of the size of one's own birth cohort. Yet, the ratio fluctuates considerably across individuals, as the sizes of birth cohorts in China vary across time and regions. This enables us to examine how variability in such ratios may influence marriage decisions and household bargaining. The findings suggest that women exercise greater bargaining power once married. Results indicate that as women become scarcer in the marriage market, they have healthier sons. Men also delay marriage, and consume less tobacco and alcohol. This paper also highlights how sensitive findings may be to using this modified weighted availability ratio rather than a traditional unweighted availability ratio.

An Examination of the Volitional Stages in Consumer Decisions to Avoid Sweatshop Clothing

OpenAIRE

Shaw, D; Bekin, C; Shiu, E; Hassan, L; Hogg, G; Wilson, E

2006-01-01

While much research in ethical consumption has focused on contexts such as food, this research explores ethical consumer decision-making in the context of intention to avoid sweatshop clothing where consumer concern has increased but response from the market remains limited. This research seeks to deepen the theory of planned behaviour with respect to the volitional stages underlying behaviour. The findings of the research support a modified theory of planned behaviour model and also reveal v...

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

2007-01-01

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

Different contributions of internal reviewers and external experts to labelling decisions on therapeutic indications in new drug reviews in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Yokota, M; Kusama, M; Matsuki, N; Ono, S

2013-12-01

External experts play an important role in shaping regulatory decisions in the new drug review process in the United States, Europe and Japan. No rigorous study has been performed addressing how and to what extent external experts, in contrast to internal reviewers in the agency, influence the regulatory decisions during new drug reviews. We examined their contributions in Japanese regulatory reviews in contrast to the internal reviewers, focusing on the labelling decision on therapeutic indications. With the data set of 219 new molecular entities (NMEs) approved in Japan from 2000 to 2009, we observed how proposed indications in labelling were modified in a stepwise manner during the review process and conducted multinomial logistic analysis to examine the possible mechanism behind. We found that interim assessment of indications by the internal reviewers was modified substantially by the influence of the external experts in about 20% of the 219 NMEs. Our analysis suggested that internal reviewers provided their opinion mainly based on strict review discipline, whereas external experts added flexibility and reality to their reviews. Our analysis revealed different evaluations between internal reviewers and external experts during regulatory discussions in new drug reviews and how the external panel contributes to changing internal decisions. This study provides a new and quantitative approach to better label setting by emphasizing the contributions of each stakeholder in new drug reviews, which would improve the efficiency, quality and transparency of new drug reviews to enhance public health. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Developing Climate Resilience Toolkit Decision Support Training Sectio

Science.gov (United States)

Livezey, M. M.; Herring, D.; Keck, J.; Meyers, J. C.

2014-12-01

The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is a Federal government effort to address the U.S. President's Climate Action Plan and Executive Order for Climate Preparedness. The toolkit will provide access to tools and products useful for climate-sensitive decision making. To optimize the user experience, the toolkit will also provide access to training materials. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been building a climate training capability for 15 years. The target audience for the training has historically been mainly NOAA staff with some modified training programs for external users and stakeholders. NOAA is now using this climate training capacity for the CRT. To organize the CRT training section, we collaborated with the Association of Climate Change Officers to determine the best strategy and identified four additional complimentary skills needed for successful decision making: climate literacy, environmental literacy, risk assessment and management, and strategic execution and monitoring. Developing the climate literacy skills requires knowledge of climate variability and change, as well as an introduction to the suite of available products and services. For the development of an environmental literacy category, specific topics needed include knowledge of climate impacts on specific environmental systems. Climate risk assessment and management introduces a process for decision making and provides knowledge on communication of climate information and integration of climate information in planning processes. The strategic execution and monitoring category provides information on use of NOAA climate products, services, and partnership opportunities for decision making. In order to use the existing training modules, it was necessary to assess their level of complexity, catalog them, and develop guidance for users on a curriculum to take advantage of the training resources to enhance their learning experience. With the development of this CRT

Collective animal decisions: preference conflict and decision accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Conradt, Larissa

2013-12-06

Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot 'afford' preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate ('base rate') of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Micotti

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

Science.gov (United States)

Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-09-01

Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

Impaired decision making and delayed memory are related with anxiety and depressive symptoms in acromegaly.

Science.gov (United States)

Crespo, Iris; Santos, Alicia; Valassi, Elena; Pires, Patricia; Webb, Susan M; Resmini, Eugenia

2015-12-01

Evaluation of cognitive function in acromegaly has revealed contradictory findings; some studies report normal cognition in patients with long-term cured acromegaly, while others show attention and memory deficits. Moreover, the presence of affective disorders in these patients is common. Our aim was to evaluate memory and decision making in acromegalic patients and explore their relationship with affective disorders like anxiety and depressive symptoms. Thirty-one patients with acromegaly (mean age 49.5 ± 8.5 years, 14 females and 17 males) and thirty-one healthy controls participated in this study. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) were used to evaluate decision making, verbal memory, anxiety, and depressive symptoms, respectively. Acromegalic patients showed impairments in delayed verbal memory (p decision-making strategy compared to controls, choosing a lower number of the safer cards (p memory and decision making were found. Impaired delayed memory and decision making observed in acromegalic patients are related to anxiety and depressive symptoms. Providing emotional support to the patients could improve their cognitive function. A key clinical application of this research is the finding that depressive symptoms and anxiety are essentially modifiable factors.

Minimizing size of decision trees for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-29

We used decision tree as a model to discover the knowledge from multi-label decision tables where each row has a set of decisions attached to it and our goal is to find out one arbitrary decision from the set of decisions attached to a row. The size of the decision tree can be small as well as very large. We study here different greedy as well as dynamic programming algorithms to minimize the size of the decision trees. When we compare the optimal result from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produce results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of number of nodes (at most 18.92% difference), number of nonterminal nodes (at most 20.76% difference), and number of terminal nodes (at most 18.71% difference).

Minimizing size of decision trees for multi-label decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

We used decision tree as a model to discover the knowledge from multi-label decision tables where each row has a set of decisions attached to it and our goal is to find out one arbitrary decision from the set of decisions attached to a row. The size of the decision tree can be small as well as very large. We study here different greedy as well as dynamic programming algorithms to minimize the size of the decision trees. When we compare the optimal result from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produce results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of number of nodes (at most 18.92% difference), number of nonterminal nodes (at most 20.76% difference), and number of terminal nodes (at most 18.71% difference).

Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire A Hales

Full Text Available Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142, and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Hales, Claire A; Robinson, Emma S J; Houghton, Conor J

2016-01-01

Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Yu-Ting; Zhang, Bai-Hai; Wang, Xiao-Yi; Jin, Xue-Bo; Xu, Ji-Ping; Su, Ting-Li; Wang, Zhao-Yang

2016-10-28

Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches' ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method's rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Ting Bai

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches’ ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method’s rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

The impact of disappointment in decision making: Inter-individual differences and electrical neuroimaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helène eTzieropoulos

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Disappointment, the emotion experienced when faced to reward prediction errors, considerably impact decision making. Individuals tend to modify their behavior in an often unpredictable way just to avoid experiencing negative emotions. Despite its importance, disappointment remains much less studied than regret and its impact on upcoming decisions largely unexplored. Here, we adapted the Trust Game to effectively elicit, quantify and isolate disappointment by relying on the formal definition provided by Bell’s in economics. We evaluated the effects of experienced disappointment and elation on future cooperation and trust as well as the rationality and utility of the different behavioral and neural mechanisms used to cope with disappointment. All participants in our game trusted less and particularly expected less from unknown opponents as a result of disappointing outcomes in the previous trial but not necessarily after elation indicating that behavioral consequences of positive and negative reward prediction errors are not the same. A large variance in the tolerance to disappointment was observed across subjects, with some participants needing only a small disappointment to impulsively bias their subsequent decisions. As revealed by high-density EEG recordings the most tolerant individuals - who thought twice before making a decision and earned more money – relied on different neural generators to contend with neutral and unexpected outcomes. This study thus provide some support to the idea that different neural systems underlie reflexive and reflective decisions within the same individuals as predicted by the dual-system theory of social judgment and decision making.

A modified scintigrafic technique for amputation level selection in diabetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwars, B.J.; Rauwerda, J.A.; Broek, T.A.A. van den; Rij, G.L. van; Hollander, W. den; Heidendal, G.A.K.

1989-01-01

A modified 123 I-antipyrine cutaneous washout technique for the selection of amputation levels is described. The modifications imply a reduction of time needed for the examination by simultaneous recordings on different levels, and a better patient acceptance by reducing inconvenience. Furthermore, both skin perfusion pressure (SPP) and skin blood flow (SBF) are determined from each clearance curve. In a prospective study among 26 diabetic patients presenting with ulcers or gangrene of the foot, both SPP and SBF were determined preoperatively on the selected level of surgery and on adjacent amputation sites. These 26 patients underwent 12 minor foot amputations and 17 major lower limb amputations. Two of these amputations failed to heal. SBF values appeared indicative for the degree of peripheral vascular disease, as low SBF values were found with low SPP values. SPP determinations revealed good predictive values: All surgical procedures healed when SPP>20 mmHg, but 2 out of 3 failed when SPP<2 mmHg. If SPP values would have been decisive, the amputation would have been converted to a lower level in 6 out of 17 cases. This modified scintigrafic technique provides accurate objective information for amputation level selection. (orig.)

Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

2002-01-01

Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

2018-01-01

Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inversion of Farmland Soil Moisture in Large Region Based on Modified Vegetation Index

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J. X.; Yu, B. S.; Zhang, G. Z.; Zhao, G. C.; He, S. D.; Luo, W. R.; Zhang, C. C.

2018-04-01

Soil moisture is an important parameter for agricultural production. Efficient and accurate monitoring of soil moisture is an important link to ensure the safety of agricultural production. Remote sensing technology has been widely used in agricultural moisture monitoring because of its timeliness, cyclicality, dynamic tracking of changes in things, easy access to data, and extensive monitoring. Vegetation index and surface temperature are important parameters for moisture monitoring. Based on NDVI, this paper introduces land surface temperature and average temperature for optimization. This article takes the soil moisture in winter wheat growing area in Henan Province as the research object, dividing Henan Province into three main regions producing winter wheat and dividing the growth period of winter wheat into the early, middle and late stages on the basis of phenological characteristics and regional characteristics. Introducing appropriate correction factor during the corresponding growth period of winter wheat, correcting the vegetation index in the corresponding area, this paper establishes regression models of soil moisture on NDVI and soil moisture on modified NDVI based on correlation analysis and compare models. It shows that modified NDVI is more suitable as a indicator of soil moisture because of the better correlation between soil moisture and modified NDVI and the higher prediction accuracy of the regression model of soil moisture on modified NDVI. The research in this paper has certain reference value for winter wheat farmland management and decision-making.

Biological response modifiers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, R.E.

1991-10-01

Much of what used to be called immunotherapy is now included in the term biological response modifiers. Biological response modifiers (BRMs) are defined as those agents or approaches that modify the relationship between the tumor and host by modifying the host's biological response to tumor cells with resultant therapeutic effects.'' Most of the early work with BRMs centered around observations of spontaneous tumor regression and the association of tumor regression with concurrent bacterial infections. The BRM can modify the host response in the following ways: Increase the host's antitumor responses through augmentation and/or restoration of effector mechanisms or mediators of the host's defense or decrease the deleterious component by the host's reaction; Increase the host's defenses by the administration of natural biologics (or the synthetic derivatives thereof) as effectors or mediators of an antitumor response; Augment the host's response to modified tumor cells or vaccines, which might stimulate a greater response by the host or increase tumor-cell sensitivity to an existing response; Decrease the transformation and/or increase differentiation (maturation) of tumor cells; or Increase the ability of the host to tolerate damage by cytotoxic modalities of cancer treatment.

DECISIONS, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES RELATED TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boghean Florin

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper

Mortality Benefits of Antibiotic Computerised Decision Support System: Modifying Effects of Age

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Angela L. P.; Lye, David C.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

2015-11-01

Antibiotic computerised decision support systems (CDSSs) are shown to improve antibiotic prescribing, but evidence of beneficial patient outcomes is limited. We conducted a prospective cohort study in a 1500-bed tertiary-care hospital in Singapore, to evaluate the effectiveness of the hospital’s antibiotic CDSS on patients’ clinical outcomes, and the modification of these effects by patient factors. To account for clustering, we used multilevel logistic regression models. One-quarter of 1886 eligible inpatients received CDSS-recommended antibiotics. Receipt of antibiotics according to CDSS’s recommendations seemed to halve mortality risk of patients (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.26-1.10, P = 0.09). Patients aged ≤65 years had greater mortality benefit (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-1.00, P = 0.05) than patients that were older than 65 (OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.91-1.82, P = 0.16). No effect was observed on incidence of Clostridium difficile (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.34-3.01), and multidrug-resistant organism (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.42-2.71) infections. No increase in infection-related readmission (OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.48-2.79) was found in survivors. Receipt of CDSS-recommended antibiotics reduced mortality risk in patients aged 65 years or younger and did not increase the risk in older patients. Physicians should be informed of the benefits to increase their acceptance of CDSS recommendations.

Modified Allergens for Immunotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Satitsuksanoa, Pattraporn; Głobińska, Anna; Jansen, Kirstin; van de Veen, Willem; Akdis, Mübeccel

2018-02-16

During the past few decades, modified allergens have been developed for use in allergen-specific immunotherapy (AIT) with the aim to improve efficacy and reduce adverse effects. This review aims to provide an overview of the different types of modified allergens, their mechanism of action and their potential for improving AIT. In-depth research in the field of allergen modifications as well as the advance of recombinant DNA technology have paved the way for improved diagnosis and research on human allergic diseases. A wide range of structurally modified allergens has been generated including allergen peptides, chemically altered allergoids, adjuvant-coupled allergens, and nanoparticle-based allergy vaccines. These modified allergens show promise for the development of AIT regimens with improved safety and long-term efficacy. Certain modifications ensure reduced IgE reactivity and retained T cell reactivity, which facilities induction of immune tolerance to the allergen. To date, multiple clinical trials have been performed using modified allergens. Promising results were obtained for the modified cat, grass and birch pollen, and house dust mite allergens. The use of modified allergens holds promise for improving AIT efficacy and safety. There is however a need for larger clinical studies to reliably assess the added benefit for the patient of using modified allergens for AIT.

Time to decision: the drivers of innovation adoption decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Ciganek, Andrew Paul; (Dave) Haseman, William; Ramamurthy, K.

2014-03-01

Organisations desire timeliness. Timeliness facilitates a better responsiveness to changes in an organisation's external environment to either attain or maintain competitiveness. Despite its importance, decision timeliness has not been explicitly examined. Decision timeliness is measured in this study as the time taken to commit to a decision. The research objective is to identify the drivers of decision timeliness in the context of adopting service-oriented architecture (SOA), an innovation for enterprise computing. A research model rooted in the technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework is proposed and tested with data collected in a large-scale study. The research variables have been examined before in the context of adoption, but their applicability to the timeliness of innovation decision-making has not received much attention and their salience is unclear. The results support multiple hypothesised relationships, including the finding that a risk-oriented organisational culture as well as normative and coercive pressures accelerates decision timeliness. Top management support as well as the traditional innovation attributes (compatibility, relative advantage and complexity/ease-of-use) were not found to be significant when examining their influence on decision timeliness, which appears inconsistent with generally accepted knowledge and deserves further examination.

The impact of disappointment in decision making: inter-individual differences and electrical neuroimaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Tzieropoulos, Hélène; de Peralta, Rolando Grave; Bossaerts, Peter; Gonzalez Andino, Sara L

2011-01-01

Disappointment, the emotion experienced when faced to reward prediction errors (RPEs), considerably impacts decision making (DM). Individuals tend to modify their behavior in an often unpredictable way just to avoid experiencing negative emotions. Despite its importance, disappointment remains much less studied than regret and its impact on upcoming decisions largely unexplored. Here, we adapted the Trust Game to effectively elicit, quantify, and isolate disappointment by relying on the formal definition provided by Bell's in economics. We evaluated the effects of experienced disappointment and elation on future cooperation and trust as well as the rationality and utility of the different behavioral and neural mechanisms used to cope with disappointment. All participants in our game trusted less and particularly expected less from unknown opponents as a result of disappointing outcomes in the previous trial but not necessarily after elation indicating that behavioral consequences of positive and negative RPEs are not the same. A large variance in the tolerance to disappointment was observed across subjects, with some participants needing only a small disappointment to impulsively bias their subsequent decisions. As revealed by high-density EEG recordings the most tolerant individuals - who thought twice before making a decision and earned more money - relied on different neural generators to contend with neutral and unexpected outcomes. This study thus provides some support to the idea that different neural systems underlie reflexive and reflective decisions within the same individuals as predicted by the dual-system theory of social judgment and DM.

Decision making under uncertainty, therapeutic inertia, and physicians' risk preferences in the management of multiple sclerosis (DIScUTIR MS).

Science.gov (United States)

Saposnik, Gustavo; Sempere, Angel Perez; Raptis, Roula; Prefasi, Daniel; Selchen, Daniel; Maurino, Jorge

2016-05-04

The management of multiple sclerosis (MS) is rapidly changing by the introduction of new and more effective disease-modifying agents. The importance of risk stratification was confirmed by results on disease progression predicted by different risk score systems. Despite these advances, we know very little about medical decisions under uncertainty in the management of MS. The goal of this study is to i) identify whether overconfidence, tolerance to risk/uncertainty, herding influence medical decisions, and ii) to evaluate the frequency of therapeutic inertia (defined as lack of treatment initiation or intensification in patients not at goals of care) and its predisposing factors in the management of MS. This is a prospective study comprising a combination of case-vignettes and surveys and experiments from Neuroeconomics/behavioral economics to identify cognitive distortions associated with medical decisions and therapeutic inertia. Participants include MS fellows and MS experts from across Spain. Each participant will receive an individual link using Qualtrics platform(©) that includes 20 case-vignettes, 3 surveys, and 4 behavioral experiments. The total time for completing the study is approximately 30-35 min. Case vignettes were selected to be representative of common clinical encounters in MS practice. Surveys and experiments include standardized test to measure overconfidence, aversion to risk and ambiguity, herding (following colleague's suggestions even when not supported by the evidence), physicians' reactions to uncertainty, and questions from the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) related to risk preferences in different domains. By applying three different MS score criteria (modified Rio, EMA, Prosperini's scheme) we take into account physicians' differences in escalating therapy when evaluating medical decisions across case-vignettes. The present study applies an innovative approach by combining tools to assess medical decisions with experiments from

Business making decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

2011-06-01

Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

2016-04-01

Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

Decision Trajectories in Dementia Care Networks: Decisions and Related Key Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Oldewarris, Karen; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

2017-10-01

This prospective multiperspective study provides insight into the decision trajectories of people with dementia by studying the decisions made and related key events. This study includes three waves of interviews, conducted between July 2010 and July 2012, with 113 purposefully selected respondents (people with beginning to advanced stages of dementia and their informal and professional caregivers) completed in 12 months (285 interviews). Our multilayered qualitative analysis consists of content analysis, timeline methods, and constant comparison. Four decision themes emerged-managing daily life, arranging support, community living, and preparing for the future. Eight key events delineate the decision trajectories of people with dementia. Decisions and key events differ between people with dementia living alone and living with a caregiver. Our study clarifies that decisions relate not only to the disease but to living with the dementia. Individual differences in decision content and sequence may effect shared decision-making and advance care planning.

Medical decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

2016-01-01

This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

2016-01-01

Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

Decision-making styles and depressive symptomatology: Development of the Decision Styles Questionnaire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Leykin

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Difficulty making decisions is one of the symptoms of the depressive illness. Previous research suggests that depressed individuals may make decisions that differ from those made by the non-depressed, and that they use sub-optimal decision-making strategies. For this study we constructed an instrument that aims to measure a variety of decision-making styles as well as the respondent's view of him or herself as a decision-maker (decisional self-esteem. These styles and estimates of decisional self-esteem were then related to depressive symptoms. Depressive symptomatology correlated negatively with perception of self as a decision-maker. Those with higher depression severity scores characterized themselves as being more anxious about decisions, and more likely to procrastinate. They also reported using fewer productive decision-making strategies, depending more on other people for help with decisions, and relying less on their own intuitions when making decisions. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which these decision-making styles are antecedents to depressive symptomatology or are instead products of, or aspects of, the phenomenology associated with depression.

Operational readiness decisions at nuclear power plants. Which factors influence the decisions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kecklund, Lena; Petterson, Sara

2007-11-01

The purpose of this project has been to propose a model for how operational readiness decisions are made and to identify important factors influencing these decisions. The project has also studied the support from the management system for decision making, and made a comparison to how decisions are made in practice. This is mainly an explorative study, but it also deals with relevant research and theories about decision making. The project consists of several parts. The first part is composed of descriptions of important notations and terms, and a summary of relevant research about decision making and its relation to the management system. The project proposes a model for the decision making process. The second part consists of analyses of reports from SKI about operational readiness decisions. The last part is a case study at a nuclear power plant. The case study describes the support from work method theories at the nuclear power plant to the decision maker. Decision makers with different roles in the safety management system were interviewed to give a description of the decision making process and of factors influencing the decisions made in practice. The case study also consists of an analysis of decisions in some real events at the nuclear power plant, as well as of making interviews in connection with these. To sum up, this report presents a model for the decision process and describes the work method theories that support the different parts in the process, how the different parts are applied in practice and circumstances that influence the decision process. The results of the project give an understanding for decision making in operational readiness decisions and the factors that influence the decision. The results are meant to be used as a basis for further studies in other nuclear power plants. The results indicate that the decision process is facilitated if there are clear criteria and work methods, if the work methods are well established and if the

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

Ethical safety of deep brain stimulation: A study on moral decision-making in Parkinson's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Fumagalli, Manuela; Marceglia, Sara; Cogiamanian, Filippo; Ardolino, Gianluca; Picascia, Marta; Barbieri, Sergio; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Pacchetti, Claudio; Priori, Alberto

2015-07-01

The possibility that deep brain stimulation (DBS) in Parkinson's disease (PD) alters patients' decisions and actions, even temporarily, raises important clinical, ethical and legal questions. Abnormal moral decision-making can lead to ethical rules violations. Previous experiments demonstrated the subthalamic (STN) activation during moral decision-making. Here we aim to study whether STN DBS can affect moral decision-making in PD patients. Eleven patients with PD and bilateral STN DBS implant performed a computerized moral task in ON and OFF stimulation conditions. A control group of PD patients without DBS implant performed the same experimental protocol. All patients underwent motor, cognitive and psychological assessments. STN stimulation was not able to modify neither reaction times nor responses to moral task both when we compared the ON and the OFF state in the same patient (reaction times, p = .416) and when we compared DBS patients with those treated only with the best medical treatment (reaction times: p = .408, responses: p = .776). Moral judgment is the result of a complex process, requiring cognitive executive functions, problem-solving, anticipations of consequences of an action, conflict processing, emotional evaluation of context and of possible outcomes, and involving different brain areas and neural circuits. Our data show that STN DBS leaves unaffected moral decisions thus implying relevant clinical and ethical implications for DBS consequences on patients' behavior, on decision-making and on judgment ability. In conclusion, the technique can be considered safe on moral behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive decision modelling of emotion-based learning impairment in schizophrenia: the role of awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Cella, Matteo; Dymond, Simon; Cooper, Andrew; Turnbull, Oliver H

2012-03-30

Individuals with schizophrenia often lack insight or awareness. Resulting impairment has been observed in various cognitive domains and, recently, linked to problems in emotion-based learning. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been used to assess emotion-based decision-making in patients with schizophrenia, but results have been inconclusive. The current study further investigates emotion-based decision-making in schizophrenia by elucidating the unique contribution of awareness. Twenty-five patients with schizophrenia and 24 healthy controls were assessed with a modified version of the IGT recording awareness at regular intervals. Symptom assessment, medication and medical history were recorded for the clinical group. Patients with schizophrenia underperformed on the IGT compared to controls. Subjective awareness levels were significantly lower in the schizophrenia group and were associated with hallucination severity. Cognitive decision modelling further indicated that patients with schizophrenia had impaired attention to losses, compared to controls. This parameter was positively correlated with awareness. We also found that positive symptoms altered awareness levels and suggest that this disruption may contribute to sub-optimal decision-making. Overall, a lack of awareness may be an important aspect in understanding impaired social cognitive functioning and emotion-based learning observed in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On Modified Bar recursion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oliva, Paulo Borges

2002-01-01

Modified bar recursion is a variant of Spector's bar recursion which can be used to give a realizability interpretation of the classical axiom of dependent choice. This realizability allows for the extraction of witnesses from proofs of forall-exists-formulas in classical analysis. In this talk I...... shall report on results regarding the relationship between modified and Spector's bar recursion. I shall also show that a seemingly weak form of modified bar recursion is as strong as "full" modified bar recursion in higher types....

Evaluation of the potential allergenicity of the enzyme microbial transglutaminase using the 2001 FAO/WHO Decision Tree

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Mona H.; Hansen, Tine K.; Sten, Eva

2004-01-01

All novel proteins must be assessed for their potential allergenicity before they are introduced into the food market. One method to achieve this is the 2001 FAO/WHO Decision Tree recommended for evaluation of proteins from genetically modified organisms (GMOs). It was the aim of this study...... to investigate the allergenicity of microbial transglutaminase (m-TG) from Streptoverticillium mobaraense. Amino acid sequence similarity to known allergens, pepsin resistance, and detection of protein binding to specific serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) (RAST) have been evaluated as recommended by the decision tree...... meets the requirements of the decision tree. However, there is a match at the five contiguous amino acid level to the major codfish allergen Gad c1. The potential cross reactivity between m-TG and Gad c1 was investigated in RAST using sera from 25 documented cod-allergic patients and an extract of raw...

Clinical decision-making: heuristics and cognitive biases for the ophthalmologist.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Ahsen; Oestreicher, James

Diagnostic errors have a significant impact on health care outcomes and patient care. The underlying causes and development of diagnostic error are complex with flaws in health care systems, as well as human error, playing a role. Cognitive biases and a failure of decision-making shortcuts (heuristics) are human factors that can compromise the diagnostic process. We describe these mechanisms, their role with the clinician, and provide clinical scenarios to highlight the various points at which biases may emerge. We discuss strategies to modify the development and influence of these processes and the vulnerability of heuristics to provide insight and improve clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

2015-12-15

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

2015-01-01

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

2011-01-01

This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

Using a group decision support system to make investment prioritisation decisions

OpenAIRE

Read, Martin; Gear, Tony; Minkes, Leonard; Irving, Ann

2013-01-01

This paper is concerned with how decision making groups involved in making investment prioritisation decisions involving funding of technology and science projects may be supported by a group decision support system (GDSS). While interested in decision outcomes, the primary focus of this paper is the role of a group support system as an aid to developing shared understanding within a group. The paper develops the conceptual framework of decision-making, communication and group support, and de...

Public preferences for engagement in Health Technology Assessment decision-making: protocol of a mixed methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wortley, Sally; Tong, Allison; Lancsar, Emily; Salkeld, Glenn; Howard, Kirsten

2015-07-14

Much attention in recent years has been given to the topic of public engagement in health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making. HTA organizations spend substantial resources and time on undertaking public engagement, and numerous studies have examined challenges and barriers to engagement in the decision-making process however uncertainty remains as to optimal methods to incorporate the views of the public in HTA decision-making. Little research has been done to ascertain whether current engagement processes align with public preferences and to what extent their desire for engagement is dependent on the question being asked by decision-makers or the characteristics of the decision. This study will examine public preferences for engagement in Australian HTA decision-making using an exploratory mixed methods design. The aims of this study are to: 1) identify characteristics about HTA decisions that are important to the public in determining whether public engagement should be undertaken on a particular topic, 2) determine which decision characteristics influence public preferences for the extent, or type of public engagement, and 3) describe reasons underpinning these preferences. Focus group participants from the general community, aged 18-70 years, will be purposively sampled from the Australian population to ensure a wide range of demographic groups. Each focus group will include a general discussion on public engagement as well as a ranking exercise using a modified nominal group technique (NGT). The NGT will inform the design of a discrete choice study to quantitatively assess public preferences for engagement in HTA decision-making. The proposed research seeks to investigate under what circumstances and how the public would like their views and preferences to be considered in health technology assessments. HTA organizations regularly make decisions about when and how public engagement should occur but without consideration of the public's preferences on

Customer Decision Support Systems: Resources for Student Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cara Okleshen Peters, Ph.D.

2005-07-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the potential of customer decision support systems (CDSS to assist students in education-related decision making. Faculty can use these resources to more effectively advise students on various elements of college life, while students can employ them to more actively participate in their own learning and improve their academic experience. This conceptual paper summarizes consumer decision support systems (CDSS concepts and presents exemplar websites students could utilize to support their education-related decision making. Finally, the authors discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks such resources engender from a student perspective and conclude with directions for future research.

The impact of health and financial literacy on decision making in community-based older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Bennett, Jarred S; Bennett, David A

2012-01-01

Health and financial literacy have been linked to the health and well-being of older adults, yet there are few data on how health and financial literacy actually impact decision making regarding healthcare and economic choices in advanced age. To examine the association of health and financial literacy with decision making in older adults. Data came from 525 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal study of aging. Health and financial literacy were assessed via a series of questions designed to measure comprehension of health and financial information and concepts. The two scores were averaged to yield a total literacy score. A modified, 12-item version of the Decision-Making Competence Assessment Tool was used to measure financial and healthcare decision making (6 items each), using materials designed to approximate those used in real world settings. All 12 items were summed to yield a total decision-making score. Associations were tested via linear regression models adjusted for age, sex and education. Secondary models adjusted for global cognitive function, income, depression and chronic medical conditions. On average, participants correctly answered 67% of the literacy questions (health literacy = 61.6%, SD = 18.8% and financial literacy = 72.5%, SD = 16.0%). After adjustment for cognitive function, the total literacy score was positively associated with the decision-making total score (estimate = 0.64, SE = 0.08, p financial decision making (estimate = 0.28, SE = 0.05, p literacy, health and financial literacy all were independently associated with decision making in models adjusted for covariates including income, depression, and chronic medical conditions (all p values literacy and healthcare decision making was stronger among older persons, poorer persons and persons at the lower ranges of cognitive ability. Among community based older persons without dementia, higher levels of health

Improved learning in U.S. history and decision competence with decision-focused curriculum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Jacobson

Full Text Available Decision making is rarely taught in high school, even though improved decision skills could benefit young people facing life-shaping decisions. While decision competence has been shown to correlate with better life outcomes, few interventions designed to improve decision skills have been evaluated with rigorous quantitative measures. A randomized study showed that integrating decision making into U.S. history instruction improved students' history knowledge and decision-making competence, compared to traditional history instruction. Thus, integrating decision training enhanced academic performance and improved an important, general life skill associated with improved life outcomes.

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation Does Not Influence the Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Perceptual Decision-making: Evidence from Three Independent Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hollander, Gilles; Labruna, Ludovica; Sellaro, Roberta; Trutti, Anne; Colzato, Lorenza S; Ratcliff, Roger; Ivry, Richard B; Forstmann, Birte U

2016-09-01

In perceptual decision-making tasks, people balance the speed and accuracy with which they make their decisions by modulating a response threshold. Neuroimaging studies suggest that this speed-accuracy tradeoff is implemented in a corticobasal ganglia network that includes an important contribution from the pre-SMA. To test this hypothesis, we used anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to modulate neural activity in pre-SMA while participants performed a simple perceptual decision-making task. Participants viewed a pattern of moving dots and judged the direction of the global motion. In separate trials, they were cued to either respond quickly or accurately. We used the diffusion decision model to estimate the response threshold parameter, comparing conditions in which participants received sham or anodal tDCS. In three independent experiments, we failed to observe an influence of tDCS on the response threshold. Additional, exploratory analyses showed no influence of tDCS on the duration of nondecision processes or on the efficiency of information processing. Taken together, these findings provide a cautionary note, either concerning the causal role of pre-SMA in decision-making or on the utility of tDCS for modifying response caution in decision-making tasks.

Listened to, but not heard! The failure to represent the public in genetically modified food policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lassen, Jesper

2018-04-01

'In the mid-1990s, a mismatch was addressed between European genetically modified food policy, which focused primarily on risks and economic prospects, and public anxieties, which also included other concerns, and there was a development in European food policy toward the inclusion of what were referred to as "ethical aspects." Using parliamentary debates in Denmark in 2002 and 2015 as a case, this article examines how three storylines of concern that were visible in public discourse at the time were represented by the decision makers in parliament. It shows that core public concerns raising fundamental questions about genetically modified foods, and in particular their perceived unnaturalness, were not considered in the parliamentary debates. It is suggested that the failure of the parliament to represent the public may undermine the legitimacy of politicians and lead to disillusionment with parliamentary government.

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbeling, Dieneke

2014-05-01

Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

[Decision making in cariology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

2003-01-01

By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

A Systematic Literature Review and Research Agenda for Organ Donation Decision Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Knox, Kathy; Parkinson, Joy; Pang, Bo; Fujihira, Haruka; David, Patricia; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

2017-09-01

This study systematically located and appraised peer-reviewed evidence for the efficacy of strategies to increase organ donation decision communication among adults including an assessment of study quality to guide future research in this field. There is little room to move in strengthening unanimously positive public attitudes toward organ donation. Consequently, researchers have called for a focus on organ donation decision communication to understand modifiable factors to increase organ donation rates. Multiple databases were searched during September 2015, and 44 studies were selected for inclusion. Data concerning participants, design, and outcomes were extracted. Studies were rated for quality and levels of evidence. Although not amenable to meta-analysis, the literature indicates that approximately 50% of adults who are willing to become an organ donor have discussed this decision with family. The majority of research was conducted in a Western context with an overrepresentation of students. Strategies to increase communication include education, motivation, input from lived experience, efforts to address salient audience beliefs, and scheduled reminders or prompts. Intentions and willingness to discuss organ donation were consistently positively related to discussion behavior; however, formative research and experimental studies testing theoretically driven interventions were scarce. There is mixed evidence for the role of demographic and attitudinal characteristics in the success of organ donation communication interventions. Additional theoretically based research is recommended to establish boundary conditions and validate strategies to increase organ donation decision communication among adults.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

Assessment of primary school students’ decision-making related to tactical contexts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Guitiérrez

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to assess and understand prior tactical knowledge and game performance as well as the relationship between the different components of game performance in invasion games. The participants (N = 22; girls: 13; boys: 9 were Physical Education students (ages: 11-12 with a low expertise in invasion games (they were selected among those with no other background in invasion games than PE lessons. Their game performance was videotaped, after which measures of motor execution and cognitive components were developed from observational analysis. Decision- making was measured on two levels: a decision-making restricted to the performance of technical-tactical skills; and b decision-making focused on adapting to the offensive tactical contexts of the game. Participants played an eight-minute-long 4-versus-4 generic invasion game. The latter was designed to meet both developmental needs and previous learning, so interference between motor execution ability and decision-making performance was minimized. The findings revealed that these students already had a basic concept of offensive and defensive game situations, both on-the-ball and off-the-ball. No significant differences were found between players’ performance in penetrating-the-defense contexts and in those where they kept ball possession. The findings additionally highlighted the existence of significant relationships between decision-making and skill execution in getting open, tackling, marking off-ball and double teaming. Other links between game performance components are discussed throughout the paper. The importance of assessing game performance taking into account tactical contexts is also supported (Gutiérrez, González, García-López, & Mitchell, 2011, as well as some of the GCA pedagogical principles, e.g. the use of modified games (Oslin & Mitchell, 2006.

Evaluating psychodiagnostic decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Witteman, Cilia L M; Harries, Clare; Bekker, Hilary L; Van Aarle, Edward J M

2007-02-01

Several frameworks can be used to evaluate decision making. These may relate to different aspects of the decision-making process, or concern the decision outcome. Evaluations of psychodiagnostic decisions have shown diagnosticians to be poor decision makers. In this essay we argue that this finding results from the evaluation of only one part of the diagnostic process. We put forward that evaluations are typically carried out by comparing clinicians' behaviour to one of several normative models, for example hypothetico-deductive reasoning. These models make strong assumptions about human reasoning capabilities, which make it almost impossible for people to measure up to them. The subsequent two parts of the psychodiagnostic process (causal explanation and treatment decisions), are typically not included in these evaluation studies. Treatment decisions are evaluated in effectiveness studies; that is, they are evaluated in terms of their outcomes, not in terms of the diagnosticians' decision processes. Psychodiagnosticians' causal explanation has hardly ever been the subject of evaluation. We argue that in order to achieve clinical excellence, this part of the psychodiagnostic process should also be well understood. In this essay we first describe evaluation of psychodiagnostic decision making. We then propose a framework to describe causal explanation, that is, a situation assessment in terms of a causal schema or a story or script. We identify and discuss the tools available for evaluating this part of the psychodiagnostic process.

Patient Preferences regarding Shared Decision-making in the Emergency Department: Findings from a multi-site survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoenfeld, Elizabeth M; Kanzaria, Hemal K; Quigley, Denise D; Marie, Peter St; Nayyar, Nikita; Sabbagh, Sarah H; Gress, Kyle L; Probst, Marc A

2018-06-13

As Shared Decision-Making (SDM) has received increased attention as a method to improve the patient-centeredness of emergency department (ED) care, we sought to determine patients' desired level of involvement in medical decisions and their perceptions of potential barriers and facilitators to SDM in the ED. We surveyed a cross-sectional sample of adult ED patients at three academic medical centers across the United States. The survey included 32 items regarding patient involvement in medical decisions including a modified Control Preference Scale (CPS) and questions about barriers and facilitators to SDM in the ED. Items were developed and refined based on prior literature and qualitative interviews with ED patients. Research assistants administered the survey in person. Of 797 patients approached, 661 (83%) agreed to participate. Participants were 52% female, 45% white, and 30% Hispanic. The majority of respondents (85-92%, depending on decision type) expressed a desire for some degree of involvement in decision-making in the ED, while 8-15% preferred to leave decision-making to their physician alone. Ninety-eight percent wanted to be involved with decisions when "something serious is going on." The majority of patients (94%) indicated that self-efficacy was not a barrier to SDM in the ED. However, most patients (55%) reported a tendency to defer to the physician's decision-making during an ED visit, with about half reporting they would wait for a physician to ask them to be involved. We found the majority of ED patients in our large, diverse sample wanted to be involved in medical decisions, especially in the case of a "serious" medical problem, and felt that they had the ability to do so. Nevertheless, many patients were unlikely to actively seek involvement and defaulted to allowing the physician to make decisions during the ED visit. After fully explaining the consequences of a decision, clinicians should make an effort to explicitly ascertain patients

Three approaches to deal with inconsistent decision tables - Comparison of decision tree complexity

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

2013-01-01

In inconsistent decision tables, there are groups of rows with equal values of conditional attributes and different decisions (values of the decision attribute). We study three approaches to deal with such tables. Instead of a group of equal rows, we consider one row given by values of conditional attributes and we attach to this row: (i) the set of all decisions for rows from the group (many-valued decision approach); (ii) the most common decision for rows from the group (most common decision approach); and (iii) the unique code of the set of all decisions for rows from the group (generalized decision approach). We present experimental results and compare the depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by a greedy algorithm in the framework of each of the three approaches. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Environmental change challenges decision-making during post-market environmental monitoring of transgenic crops.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanvido, Olivier; Romeis, Jörg; Bigler, Franz

2011-12-01

The ability to decide what kind of environmental changes observed during post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified (GM) crops represent environmental harm is an essential part of most legal frameworks regulating the commercial release of GM crops into the environment. Among others, such decisions are necessary to initiate remedial measures or to sustain claims of redress linked to environmental liability. Given that consensus on criteria to evaluate 'environmental harm' has not yet been found, there are a number of challenges for risk managers when interpreting GM crop monitoring data for environmental decision-making. In the present paper, we argue that the challenges in decision-making have four main causes. The first three causes relate to scientific data collection and analysis, which have methodological limits. The forth cause concerns scientific data evaluation, which is controversial among the different stakeholders involved in the debate on potential impacts of GM crops on the environment. This results in controversy how the effects of GM crops should be valued and what constitutes environmental harm. This controversy may influence decision-making about triggering corrective actions by regulators. We analyse all four challenges and propose potential strategies for addressing them. We conclude that environmental monitoring has its limits in reducing uncertainties remaining from the environmental risk assessment prior to market approval. We argue that remaining uncertainties related to adverse environmental effects of GM crops would probably be assessed in a more efficient and rigorous way during pre-market risk assessment. Risk managers should acknowledge the limits of environmental monitoring programmes as a tool for decision-making.

The Impact of Disappointment in Decision Making: Inter-Individual Differences and Electrical Neuroimaging

Science.gov (United States)

Tzieropoulos, Hélène; de Peralta, Rolando Grave; Bossaerts, Peter; Andino, Sara L. Gonzalez

2011-01-01

Disappointment, the emotion experienced when faced to reward prediction errors (RPEs), considerably impacts decision making (DM). Individuals tend to modify their behavior in an often unpredictable way just to avoid experiencing negative emotions. Despite its importance, disappointment remains much less studied than regret and its impact on upcoming decisions largely unexplored. Here, we adapted the Trust Game to effectively elicit, quantify, and isolate disappointment by relying on the formal definition provided by Bell's in economics. We evaluated the effects of experienced disappointment and elation on future cooperation and trust as well as the rationality and utility of the different behavioral and neural mechanisms used to cope with disappointment. All participants in our game trusted less and particularly expected less from unknown opponents as a result of disappointing outcomes in the previous trial but not necessarily after elation indicating that behavioral consequences of positive and negative RPEs are not the same. A large variance in the tolerance to disappointment was observed across subjects, with some participants needing only a small disappointment to impulsively bias their subsequent decisions. As revealed by high-density EEG recordings the most tolerant individuals – who thought twice before making a decision and earned more money – relied on different neural generators to contend with neutral and unexpected outcomes. This study thus provides some support to the idea that different neural systems underlie reflexive and reflective decisions within the same individuals as predicted by the dual-system theory of social judgment and DM. PMID:21258645

Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Razvan PETRUSEL

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

'Misclassification error' greedy heuristic to construct decision trees for inconsistent decision tables

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

A greedy algorithm has been presented in this paper to construct decision trees for three different approaches (many-valued decision, most common decision, and generalized decision) in order to handle the inconsistency of multiple decisions in a decision table. In this algorithm, a greedy heuristic ‘misclassification error’ is used which performs faster, and for some cost function, results are better than ‘number of boundary subtables’ heuristic in literature. Therefore, it can be used in the case of larger data sets and does not require huge amount of memory. Experimental results of depth, average depth and number of nodes of decision trees constructed by this algorithm are compared in the framework of each of the three approaches.

Dementia Prevention: optimizing the use of observational data for personal, clinical, and public health decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dacks, Penny A; Andrieu, Sandrine; Blacker, Deborah; Carman, Aaron J; Green, Allan M; Grodstein, Francine; Henderson, Victor W; James, Bryan D; Lane, Rachel F; Lau, Joseph; Lin, Pei-Jung; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shah, Raj C; Vellas, Bruno; Yaffe, Kristine; Yurko-Mauro, Karin; Shineman, Diana W; Bennett, David A; Fillit, Howard M

2014-02-01

Worldwide, over 35 million people suffer from Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. This number is expected to triple over the next 40 years. How can we improve the evidence supporting strategies to reduce the rate of dementia in future generations? The risk of dementia is likely influenced by modifiable factors such as exercise, cognitive activity, and the clinical management of diabetes and hypertension. However, the quality of evidence is limited and it remains unclear whether specific interventions to reduce these modifiable risk factors can, in turn, reduce the risk of dementia. Although randomized controlled trials are the gold-standard for causality, the majority of evidence for long-term dementia prevention derives from, and will likely continue to derive from, observational studies. Although observational research has some unavoidable limitations, its utility for dementia prevention might be improved by, for example, better distinction between confirmatory and exploratory research, higher reporting standards, investment in effectiveness research enabled by increased data-pooling, and standardized exposure and outcome measures. Informed decision-making by the general public on low-risk health choices that could have broad potential benefits could be enabled by internet-based tools and decision-aids to communicate the evidence, its quality, and the estimated magnitude of effect.

Decision Dissonance: Evaluating an Approach to Measuring the Quality of Surgical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Floyd J.; Gallagher, Patricia M.; Drake, Keith M.; Sepucha, Karen R.

2013-01-01

Background Good decision making has been increasingly cited as a core component of good medical care, and shared decision making is one means of achieving high decision quality. If it is to be a standard, good measures and protocols are needed for assessing the quality of decisions. Consistency with patient goals and concerns is one defining characteristic of a good decision. A new method for evaluating decision quality for major surgical decisions was examined, and a methodology for collecting the needed data was developed. Methods For a national probability sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who had a coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), a lumpectomy or a mastectomy for breast cancer, or surgery for prostate cancer during the last half of 2008, a mail survey of selected patients was carried out about one year after the procedures. Patients’ goals and concerns, knowledge, key aspects of interactions with clinicians, and feelings about the decisions were assessed. A Decision Dissonance Score was created that measured the extent to which patient ratings of goals ran counter to the treatment received. The construct and predictive validity of the Decision Dissonance Score was then assessed. Results When data were averaged across all four procedures, patients with more knowledge and those who reported more involvement reported significantly lower Decision Dissonance Scores. Patients with lower Decision Dissonance Scores also reported more confidence in their decisions and feeling more positively about how the treatment turned out, and they were more likely to say that they would make the same decision again. Conclusions Surveying discharged surgery patients is a feasible way to evaluate decision making, and Decision Dissonance appears to be a promising approach to validly measuring decision quality. PMID:23516764

Shared decision making

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

Characterization of modified clinoptilolite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novosad, J.; Jandl, J.; Woollins, J.D.

1992-01-01

Samples of clinoptilolite were modified using insoluble hexacyanoferrate from aqueous solution. The modified samples were characterized by elemental analysis, powder X-ray diffraction, solid state NMR and vibrational spectroscopy. The sorption properties of modified clinoptilolite were studied, too. Higher affinity for 137 Cs sorption in comparison with the natural clinoptilolite has been proved. (author) 5 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Decision Making and Cancer

OpenAIRE

Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

2015-01-01

We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Ashley S; Clarkson, Joshua J; Kardes, Frank R

2016-07-01

We all too often have to make decisions-from the mundane (e.g., what to eat for breakfast) to the complex (e.g., what to buy a loved one)-and yet there exists a multitude of strategies that allows us to make a decision. This work focuses on a subset of decision strategies that allows individuals to make decisions by bypassing the decision-making process-a phenomenon we term decision sidestepping. Critical to the present manuscript, however, we contend that decision sidestepping stems from the motivation to achieve closure. We link this proposition back to the fundamental nature of closure and how those seeking closure are highly bothered by decision making. As such, we argue that the motivation to achieve closure prompts a reliance on sidestepping strategies (e.g., default bias, choice delegation, status quo bias, inaction inertia, option fixation) to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. In support of this framework, five experiments demonstrate that (a) those seeking closure are more likely to engage in decision sidestepping, (b) the effect of closure on sidestepping stems from the bothersome nature of decision making, and (c) the reliance on sidestepping results in downstream consequences for subsequent choice. Taken together, these findings offer unique insight into the cognitive motivations stimulating a reliance on decision sidestepping and thus a novel framework by which to understand how individuals make decisions while bypassing the decision-making process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshiyuki eKaneko

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target.

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, Yoshiyuki; Sakai, Katsuyuki

2015-01-01

Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target. PMID:25999844

Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2012-01-01

This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

Restoring Natural Streamflow Variability by Modifying Multi-purpose Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Shiau, J.

2010-12-01

Multi-purpose reservoirs typically provide benefits of water supply, hydroelectric power, and flood mitigation. Hydroelectric power generations generally do not consume water. However, temporal distribution of downstream flows is highly changed due to hydro-peaking effects. Associated with offstream diversion of water supplies for municipal, industrial, and agricultural requirements, natural streamflow characteristics of magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change is significantly altered by multi-purpose reservoir operation. Natural flow regime has long been recognized a master factor for ecosystem health and biodiversity. Restoration of altered flow regime caused by multi-purpose reservoir operation is the main objective of this study. This study presents an optimization framework that modifying reservoir operation to seeking balance between human and environmental needs. The methodology presented in this study is applied to the Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, with main purpose of providing stable water-supply and auxiliary purpose of electricity generation and flood-peak attenuation. Reservoir releases are dominated by two decision variables, i.e., duration of water releases for each day and percentage of daily required releases within the duration. The current releasing policy of the Feitsui Reservoir releases water for water-supply and hydropower purposes during 8:00 am to 16:00 pm each day and no environmental flows releases. Although greater power generation is obtained by 100% releases distributed within 8-hour period, severe temporal alteration of streamflow is observed downstream of the reservoir. Modifying reservoir operation by relaxing these two variables and reserve certain ratio of streamflow as environmental flow to maintain downstream natural variability. The optimal reservoir releasing policy is searched by the multi-criterion decision making technique for considering reservoir performance in terms of shortage ratio

Group Decision Process Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

1997-01-01

Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

A systematic review of decision support needs of parents making child health decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Cath; Cheater, Francine M.; Reid, Innes

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective  To identify the decision support needs of parents attempting to make an informed health decision on behalf of a child. Context  The first step towards implementing patient decision support is to assess patients’ information and decision‐making needs. Search strategy  A systematic search of key bibliographic databases for decision support studies was performed in 2005. Reference lists of relevant review articles and key authors were searched. Three relevant journals were hand searched. Inclusion criteria  Non‐intervention studies containing data on decision support needs of parents making child health decisions. Data extraction and synthesis  Data were extracted on study characteristics, decision focus and decision support needs. Studies were quality assessed using a pre‐defined set of criteria. Data synthesis used the UK Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co‐ordinating Centre approach. Main results  One‐hundred and forty nine studies were included across various child health decisions, settings and study designs. Thematic analysis of decision support needs indicated three key issues: (i) information (including suggestions about the content, delivery, source, timing); (ii) talking to others (including concerns about pressure from others); and (iii) feeling a sense of control over the process that could be influenced by emotionally charged decisions, the consultation process, and structural or service barriers. These were consistent across decision type, study design and whether or not the study focused on informed decision making. PMID:18816320

Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Lisa

2017-07-01

Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Enver

2008-01-01

The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

What is known about parents' treatment decisions? A narrative review of pediatric decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Britto, Maria T

2012-01-01

With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966-6/2011), using the terms "decision making," "parent," and "child." We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents' preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child's health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions.

Training family physicians and residents in family medicine in shared decision making to improve clinical decisions regarding the use of antibiotics for acute respiratory infections: protocol for a clustered randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frémont Pierre

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To explore ways to reduce the overuse of antibiotics for acute respiratory infections (ARIs, we conducted a pilot clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT to evaluate DECISION+, a training program in shared decision making (SDM for family physicians (FPs. This pilot project demonstrated the feasibility of conducting a large clustered RCT and showed that DECISION+ reduced the proportion of patients who decided to use antibiotics immediately after consulting their physician. Consequently, the objective of this study is to evaluate, in patients consulting for ARIs, if exposure of physicians to a modified version of DECISION+, DECISION+2, would reduce the proportion of patients who decide to use antibiotics immediately after consulting their physician. Methods/design The study is a multi-center, two-arm, parallel clustered RCT. The 12 family practice teaching units (FPTUs in the network of the Department of Family Medicine and Emergency Medicine of Université Laval will be randomized to a DECISION+2 intervention group (experimental group or to a no-intervention control group. These FPTUs will recruit patients consulting family physicians and residents in family medicine enrolled in the study. There will be two data collection periods: pre-intervention (baseline including 175 patients with ARIs in each study arm, and post-intervention including 175 patients with ARIs in each study arm (total n = 700. The primary outcome will be the proportion of patients reporting a decision to use antibiotics immediately after consulting their physician. Secondary outcome measures include: 1 physicians and patients' decisional conflict; 2 the agreement between the parties' decisional conflict scores; and 3 perception of patients and physicians that SDM occurred. Also in patients, at 2 weeks follow-up, adherence to the decision, consultation for the same reason, decisional regret, and quality of life will be assessed. Finally, in both patients

Avoidant decision making in social anxiety: the interaction of angry faces and emotional responses

Science.gov (United States)

Pittig, Andre; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Craske, Michelle G.; Alpers, Georg W.

2014-01-01

Recent research indicates that angry facial expressions are preferentially processed and may facilitate automatic avoidance response, especially in socially anxious individuals. However, few studies have examined whether this bias also expresses itself in more complex cognitive processes and behavior such as decision making. We recently introduced a variation of the Iowa Gambling Task which allowed us to document the influence of task-irrelevant emotional cues on rational decision making. The present study used a modified gambling task to investigate the impact of angry facial expressions on decision making in 38 individuals with a wide range of social anxiety. Participants were to find out which choices were (dis-) advantageous to maximize overall gain. To create a decision conflict between approach of reward and avoidance of fear-relevant angry faces, advantageous choices were associated with angry facial expressions, whereas disadvantageous choices were associated with happy facial expressions. Results indicated that higher social avoidance predicted less advantageous decisions in the beginning of the task, i.e., when contingencies were still uncertain. Interactions with specific skin conductance responses further clarified that this initial avoidance only occurred in combination with elevated responses before choosing an angry facial expressions. In addition, an interaction between high trait anxiety and elevated responses to early losses predicted faster learning of an advantageous strategy. These effects were independent of intelligence, general risky decision-making, self-reported state anxiety, and depression. Thus, socially avoidant individuals who respond emotionally to angry facial expressions are more likely to show avoidance of these faces under uncertainty. This novel laboratory paradigm may be an appropriate analog for central features of social anxiety. PMID:25324792

Avoidant decision making in social anxiety: the interaction of angry faces and emotional responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittig, Andre; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Craske, Michelle G; Alpers, Georg W

2014-01-01

Recent research indicates that angry facial expressions are preferentially processed and may facilitate automatic avoidance response, especially in socially anxious individuals. However, few studies have examined whether this bias also expresses itself in more complex cognitive processes and behavior such as decision making. We recently introduced a variation of the Iowa Gambling Task which allowed us to document the influence of task-irrelevant emotional cues on rational decision making. The present study used a modified gambling task to investigate the impact of angry facial expressions on decision making in 38 individuals with a wide range of social anxiety. Participants were to find out which choices were (dis-) advantageous to maximize overall gain. To create a decision conflict between approach of reward and avoidance of fear-relevant angry faces, advantageous choices were associated with angry facial expressions, whereas disadvantageous choices were associated with happy facial expressions. Results indicated that higher social avoidance predicted less advantageous decisions in the beginning of the task, i.e., when contingencies were still uncertain. Interactions with specific skin conductance responses further clarified that this initial avoidance only occurred in combination with elevated responses before choosing an angry facial expressions. In addition, an interaction between high trait anxiety and elevated responses to early losses predicted faster learning of an advantageous strategy. These effects were independent of intelligence, general risky decision-making, self-reported state anxiety, and depression. Thus, socially avoidant individuals who respond emotionally to angry facial expressions are more likely to show avoidance of these faces under uncertainty. This novel laboratory paradigm may be an appropriate analog for central features of social anxiety.

Avoidant decision making in social anxiety: The interaction of angry faces and emotional responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre ePittig

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Recent research indicates that angry facial expressions are preferentially processed and may facilitate automatic avoidance response, especially in socially anxious individuals. However, few studies have examined whether this bias also expresses itself in more complex cognitive processes and behavior such as decision making. We recently introduced a variation of the Iowa Gambling Task which allowed us to document the influence of task-irrelevant emotional cues on rational decision making. The present study used a modified gambling task to investigate the impact of angry facial expressions on decision making in 38 individuals with a wide range of social anxiety. Participants were to find out which choices were (dis- advantageous to maximize overall gain. To create a decision conflict between approach of rewards and avoidance of fear-relevant angry faces, advantageous choices were associated with angry facial expressions, whereas disadvantageous choices were associated with happy facial expressions. Results indicated that higher social avoidance predicted less advantageous decisions in the beginning of the task, i.e., when contingencies were still uncertain. Interactions with specific skin conductance responses further clarified that this initial avoidance only occurred in combination with elevated responses before choosing an angry facial expressions. In addition, an interaction between high trait anxiety and elevated responses to early losses predicted faster learning of an advantageous strategy. These effects were independent of intelligence, general risky decision-making, self-reported state anxiety, and depression. Thus, socially avoidant individuals who respond emotionally to angry facial expressions are more likely to show avoidance of these faces under uncertainty. This novel laboratory paradigm may be an appropriate analog for central features of social anxiety.

How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, H R

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

2005-07-01

The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

Cognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): a framework of patient medical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Tara E; Swartzman, Leora C; Robinson, John W

2011-05-01

Assistance for patients faced with medical decisions has largely focussed on the clarification of information and personal values. Our aim is to draw on the decision research describing the role of emotion in combination with health behaviour models to provide a framework for conceptualizing patient decisions. A review of the psychological and medical decision making literature concerned with the role of emotion/affect in decision making and health behaviours. Emotion plays an influential role in decision making. Both current and anticipated emotions play a motivational role in choice. Amalgamating these findings with that of Leventhal's (1970) SRM provide a framework for thinking about the influence of emotion on a patient medical decision. Our framework suggests that a patient must cope with four sets of elements. The first two relate to the need to manage the cognitive and emotional aspects of the health threat. The second set relate to the management of the cognitive and emotional elements of the decision, itself. The framework provides a way for practitioners and researchers to frame thinking about a patient medical decision in order to assist the patient in clarifying decisional priorities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inertia and Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

2016-01-01

Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

Making difficult decisions how to be decisive and get the business done

CERN Document Server

Shaw, Peter J A

2010-01-01

You are faced with so many difficult decisions. Often your decision making seems random. It can be swayed by different situations and emotions. You need to be more rigorous in the way you make decisions and yet you have very little time to do so. Experience from others who have made tough decisions and a framework to help you do so would be invaluable. The courage to make decisions is sometimes a bit elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions. There is so much that can be learned from the experience of others. After working through this boo

What Is Known about Parents’ Treatment Decisions? A Narrative Review of Pediatric Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A.; Brinkman, William B.; Britto, Maria T.

2013-01-01

Background With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. Objective To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Methods Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966–6/2011), using the terms “decision making,” “parent,” and “child.” We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. Results We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents’ preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child’s health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Conclusions Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions. PMID:21969136

Operational readiness decisions at nuclear power plants - part 2. Which factors influence the decisions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kecklund, Lena; Petterson, Sara

2008-04-01

The first report contained a summary of relevant research of decision making, a case study at Ringhals power plant and an analysis of some real cases of operational readiness decisions. In this report two case studies in the Swedish power plants, OKG and Forsmark are presented. The case study description consists of three parts; a description of the support from the management system for the decision making process, interviews with decision makers and an analysis of real cases of operational readiness decisions. The purpose of the project has been to increase the understanding of the decision process in operational readiness decisions as well as the support given from the management system and what factors influence the decisions. From a general point of view the circumstances where the decision must be taken varies, but situations and events that lead to questioning of the operational readiness are often easy to identify. There are often support documents such as procedures, rules and technical documents which specify operational limitations which give explicit decision criteria. These decisions are easy. When needed colleagues can be consulted for support. In unclear situations and/or when the technical criteria is not clear, e.g. when the rules and regulations are vague or even in conflict or when it is not evident that you need to question the operational readiness, the decision is more difficult to make. The results from the study shows that such decisions in general are not made by the shift crew manager but handed over to the next management level. The decision making process differs between the power plants. At one of the power plants the decision process is organised in specific meetings where decision made are reviewed by the next higher management level. At another plant the decisions are often made in groups or in consultation with colleagues. The management system makes a distinction between decisions made in consultation and when decisions already

Decision Optimization of Machine Sets Taking Into Consideration Logical Tree Minimization of Design Guidelines

Science.gov (United States)

Deptuła, A.; Partyka, M. A.

2014-08-01

The method of minimization of complex partial multi-valued logical functions determines the degree of importance of construction and exploitation parameters playing the role of logical decision variables. Logical functions are taken into consideration in the issues of modelling machine sets. In multi-valued logical functions with weighting products, it is possible to use a modified Quine - McCluskey algorithm of multi-valued functions minimization. Taking into account weighting coefficients in the logical tree minimization reflects a physical model of the object being analysed much better

'It's just the normal thing to do': exploring parental decision-making about the 'five-in-one' vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Tickner, Sarah; Leman, Patrick J; Woodcock, Alison

2007-10-16

This qualitative study explored parental decision-making about the DTaP/IPV/Hib 'five-in-one' vaccine. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents of babies aged between 4 and 13 weeks old, recruited from four practices in southern England. A modified Grounded Theory approach identified that although parents had some concerns, most complied with the recommended programme rather than making an informed decision. Other themes related to perceived importance of immunisation; beliefs about how immunisation works; trust; perceptions of vulnerability; feelings of guilt and responsibility; and practicalities. It is important to explore how parents' attitudes change over the preschool years and to develop ways of addressing uncertainties about immunisation, including the safety of combining antigens and the need for boosters.

Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire D Tomkins

2006-09-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

Identification of key factors in consumers' adoption behavior of intelligent medical terminals based on a hybrid modified MADM model for product improvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yupeng; Chen, Yifei; Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung

2017-09-01

As a new application technology of the Internet of Things (IoT), intelligent medical treatment has attracted the attention of both nations and industries through its promotion of medical informatisation, modernisation, and intelligentisation. Faced with a wide variety of intelligent medical terminals, consumers may be affected by various factors when making purchase decisions. To examine and evaluate the key influential factors (and their interrelationships) of consumer adoption behavior for improving and promoting intelligent medical terminals toward achieving set aspiration level in each dimension and criterion. A hybrid modified Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) model was used for this study, based on three components: (1) the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, to build an influential network relationship map (INRM) at both 'dimensions' and 'criteria' levels; (2) the DEMATEL-based analytic network process (DANP) method, to determine the interrelationships and influential weights among the criteria and identify the source-influential factors; and (3) the modified Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method, to evaluate and improve for reducing the performance gaps to meet the consumers' needs for continuous improvement and sustainable products-development. First, a consensus on the influential factors affecting consumers' adoption of intelligent medical terminals was collected from experts' opinion in practical experience. Next, the interrelationships and influential weights of DANP among dimensions/criteria based on the DEMATEL technique were determined. Finally, two intelligent medicine bottles (AdhereTech, A 1 alternative; and Audio/Visual Alerting Pillbox, A 2 alternative) were reviewed as the terminal devices to verify the accuracy of the MADM model and evaluate its performance on each criterion for improving the total certification gaps by systematics according to the modified VIKOR method

Method of decision tree applied in adopting the decision for promoting a company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cezarina Adina TOFAN

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The decision can be defined as the way chosen from several possible to achieve an objective. An important role in the functioning of the decisional-informational system is held by the decision-making methods. Decision trees are proving to be very useful tools for taking financial decisions or regarding the numbers, where a large amount of complex information must be considered. They provide an effective structure in which alternative decisions and the implications of their choice can be assessed, and help to form a correct and balanced vision of the risks and rewards that may result from a certain choice. For these reasons, the content of this communication will review a series of decision-making criteria. Also, it will analyse the benefits of using the decision tree method in the decision-making process by providing a numerical example. On this basis, it can be concluded that the procedure may prove useful in making decisions for companies operating on markets where competition intensity is differentiated.

Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şükrü Ada

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

Shifted-modified Chebyshev filters

OpenAIRE

ŞENGÜL, Metin

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a new type of filter approximation method that utilizes shifted-modified Chebyshev filters. Construction of the new filters involves the use of shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials that are formed using the roots of conventional Chebyshev polynomials. The study also includes 2 tables containing the shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials and the normalized element values for the low-pass prototype filters up to degree 6. The transducer power gain, group dela...

NASA-modified precipitation products to improve USEPA nonpoint source water quality modeling for the Chesapeake Bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Nigro, Joseph; Toll, David; Partington, Ed; Ni-Meister, Wenge; Lee, Shihyan; Gutierrez-Magness, Angelica; Engman, Ted; Arsenault, Kristi

2010-01-01

The USEPA has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires states to monitor the total maximum daily load, or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted," for any watershed in the United States (Copeland, 2005). In response to this mandate, the USEPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a decision support tool for assessing pollution and to guide the decision-making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), computes continuous streamflow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events, especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA-modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, streamflow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better streamflow statistics and, potentially, in improved water quality assessment.

Decision Making in Action

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.

1986-09-01

The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

Depleted uranium hexafluoride (DUF6) management system--a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gasper, J.R.; Sutter, R.J.; Avci, H.I.

1995-01-01

The Depleted Uranium Hexafluoride (DUF 6 ) Management System (DMS) is being developed as a decision tool to provide cost and risk data for evaluation of short-and long-term management strategies for depleted uranium. It can be used to assist decision makers on a programmatic or site-specific level. Currently, the DMS allows evaluation of near-term cylinder management strategies such as storage yard improvements, cylinder restocking, and reconditioning. The DMS has been designed to provide the user with maximum flexibility for modifying data and impact factors (e.g., unit costs and risk factors). Sensitivity analysis can be performed on all key parameters such as cylinder corrosion rate, inspection frequency, and impact factors. Analysis may be conducted on a system-wide, site, or yard basis. The costs and risks from different scenarios may be compared in graphic or tabular format. Ongoing development of the DMS will allow similar evaluation of long-term management strategies such as conversion to other chemical forms. The DMS is a Microsoft Windows 3.1 based, stand-alone computer application. It can be operated on a 486 or faster computer with VGA, 4 MB of RAM, and 10 MB of disk space

Modified SEAGULL

Science.gov (United States)

Salas, M. D.; Kuehn, M. S.

1994-01-01

Original version of program incorporated into program SRGULL (LEW-15093) for use on National Aero-Space Plane project, its duty being to model forebody, inlet, and nozzle portions of vehicle. However, real-gas chemistry effects in hypersonic flow fields limited accuracy of that version, because it assumed perfect-gas properties. As a result, SEAGULL modified according to real-gas equilibrium-chemistry methodology. This program analyzes two-dimensional, hypersonic flows of real gases. Modified version of SEAGULL maintains as much of original program as possible, and retains ability to execute original perfect-gas version.

Reversible inactivation of the lateral hypothalamus reversed high reward choices in cost-benefit decision-making in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, Sara; Mesdaghinia, Azam; Farzinpour, Zahra; Hamidi, Gholamali; Haghparast, Abbas

2017-11-01

The Lateral hypothalamus (LH) is an important component of the networks underlying the control of feeding and other motivated behaviors. Cost-benefit decision-making is mediated largely by the prefrontal cortex (PFC) which strongly innervates the LH. Therefore, in the current study, we conducted a series of experiments to elucidate the role of the perifornical area of the lateral hypothalamus (PeF-LH) in effort and/or delay-based decision-making. We trained different groups of rats in a delay-based and/or an effort-based form of cost-benefit T-maze decision- making task in which they could either choose to pay the cost to obtain a high reward in one arm or could obtain a low reward in the other arm with no cost. During test days, the rats received local injections of either vehicle or lidocaine4% (0.5 μl/side), in the PeF-LH. In an effort-based decision task, PeF-LH inactivation led to decrease in high reward choice. Similarly, in a delay-based decision task animals' preference changed to a low but immediately available reward. This was not caused by a spatial memory or motor deficit. PeF-LH inactivation modified decision behavior. The results imply that PeF-LH is important for allowing the animal to pay a cost to acquire greater rewards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Excluded-Mean-Variance Neural Decision Analyzer for Qualitative Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ki-Young Song

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Many qualitative group decisions in professional fields such as law, engineering, economics, psychology, and medicine that appear to be crisp and certain are in reality shrouded in fuzziness as a result of uncertain environments and the nature of human cognition within which the group decisions are made. In this paper we introduce an innovative approach to group decision making in uncertain situations by using a mean-variance neural approach. The key idea of this proposed approach is to compute the excluded mean of individual evaluations and weight it by applying a variance influence function (VIF; this process of weighting the excluded mean by VIF provides an improved result in the group decision making. In this paper, a case study with the proposed excluded-mean-variance approach is also presented. The results of this case study indicate that this proposed approach can improve the effectiveness of qualitative decision making by providing the decision maker with a new cognitive tool to assist in the reasoning process.

Decision or no decision: how do patient-physician interactions end and what matters?

Science.gov (United States)

Tai-Seale, Ming; Bramson, Rachel; Bao, Xiaoming

2007-03-01

A clearly stated clinical decision can induce a cognitive closure in patients and is an important investment in the end of patient-physician communications. Little is known about how often explicit decisions are made in primary care visits. To use an innovative videotape analysis approach to assess physicians' propensity to state decisions explicitly, and to examine the factors influencing decision patterns. We coded topics discussed in 395 videotapes of primary care visits, noting the number of instances and the length of discussions on each topic, and how discussions ended. A regression analysis tested the relationship between explicit decisions and visit factors such as the nature of topics under discussion, instances of discussion, the amount of time the patient spoke, and competing demands from other topics. About 77% of topics ended with explicit decisions. Patients spoke for an average of 58 seconds total per topic. Patients spoke more during topics that ended with an explicit decision, (67 seconds), compared with 36 seconds otherwise. The number of instances of a topic was associated with higher odds of having an explicit decision (OR = 1.73, p decisions. Although discussions often ended with explicit decisions, there were variations related to the content and dynamics of interactions. We recommend strengthening patients' voice and developing clinical tools, e.g., an "exit prescription," to improving decision making.

Decision making and imperfection

CERN Document Server

Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

2013-01-01

Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

2013-01-01

We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

Genetically modified foods and allergy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, T H; Ho, H K; Leung, T F

2017-06-01

2015 marked the 25th anniversary of the commercial use and availability of genetically modified crops. The area of planted biotech crops cultivated globally occupies a cumulative two billion hectares, equivalent to twice the land size of China or the United States. Foods derived from genetically modified plants are widely consumed in many countries and genetically modified soybean protein is extensively used in processed foods throughout the industrialised countries. Genetically modified food technology offers a possible solution to meet current and future challenges in food and medicine. Yet there is a strong undercurrent of anxiety that genetically modified foods are unsafe for human consumption, sometimes fuelled by criticisms based on little or no firm evidence. This has resulted in some countries turning away food destined for famine relief because of the perceived health risks of genetically modified foods. The major concerns include their possible allergenicity and toxicity despite the vigorous testing of genetically modified foods prior to marketing approval. It is imperative that scientists engage the public in a constructive evidence-based dialogue to address these concerns. At the same time, improved validated ways to test the safety of new foods should be developed. A post-launch strategy should be established routinely to allay concerns. Mandatory labelling of genetically modified ingredients should be adopted for the sake of transparency. Such ingredient listing and information facilitate tracing and recall if required.

Abortion Decision and Ambivalence: Insights via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Allanson, Susie

2007-01-01

Decision ambivalence is a key concept in abortion literature, but has been poorly operationalised. This study explored the concept of decision ambivalence via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet (ADBS) articulating reasons both for and against terminating an unintended pregnancy. Ninety-six women undergoing an early abortion for psychosocial…

Decision making under uncertainty: An investigation into the application of formal decision-making methods to safety issue decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.

1992-12-01

As part of the NRC-sponsored program to study the implications of Generic Issue 57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment,'' a subtask was performed to evaluate the applicability of formal decision analysis methods to generic issues cost/benefit-type decisions and to apply these methods to the GI-57 results. In this report, the numerical results obtained from the analysis of three plants (two PWRs and one BWR) as developed in the technical resolution program for GI-57 were studied. For each plant, these results included a calculation of the person-REM averted due to various accident scenarios and various proposed modifications to mitigate the accident scenarios identified. These results were recomputed to break out the benefit in terms of contributions due to random event scenarios, fire event scenarios, and seismic event scenarios. Furthermore, the benefits associated with risk (in terms of person-REM) averted from earthquakes at three different seismic ground motion levels were separately considered. Given this data, formal decision methodologies involving decision trees, value functions, and utility functions were applied to this basic data. It is shown that the formal decision methodology can be applied at several different levels. Examples are given in which the decision between several retrofits is changed from that resulting from a simple cost/benefit-ratio criterion by virtue of the decision-makinger's expressed (and assumed) preferences

Stakeholders apply the GRADE evidence-to-decision framework to facilitate coverage decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahm, Philipp; Oxman, Andrew D; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Guyatt, Gordon H; Murad, M Hassan; Amato, Laura; Parmelli, Elena; Davoli, Marina; Morgan, Rebecca L; Mustafa, Reem A; Sultan, Shahnaz; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Akl, Elie A; Schünemann, Holger J

2017-06-01

Coverage decisions are complex and require the consideration of many factors. A well-defined, transparent process could improve decision-making and facilitate decision-maker accountability. We surveyed key US-based stakeholders regarding their current approaches for coverage decisions. Then, we held a workshop to test an evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework for coverage based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. A total of 42 individuals (including 19 US stakeholders as well as international health policymakers and GRADE working group members) attended the workshop. Of the 19 stakeholders, 14 (74%) completed the survey before the workshop. Almost all of their organizations (13 of 14; 93%) used systematic reviews for coverage decision-making; few (2 of 14; 14%) developed their own evidence synthesis; a majority (9 of 14; 64%) rated the certainty of evidence (using various systems); almost all (13 of 14; 93%) denied formal consideration of resource use; and half (7 of 14; 50%) reported explicit criteria for decision-making. At the workshop, stakeholders successfully applied the EtD framework to four case studies and provided narrative feedback, which centered on contextual factors affecting coverage decisions in the United States, the need for reliable data on subgroups of patients, and the challenge of decision-making without formal consideration of resource use. Stakeholders successfully applied the EtD framework to four case studies and highlighted contextual factors affecting coverage decisions and affirmed its value. Their input informed the further development of a revised EtD framework, now publicly available (http://gradepro.org/). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Repeated causal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

2016-10-01

Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced Decision Support Systems in Intensive Care Unit Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanen Jemal

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In areas of medical diagnosis and decision-making, several uncertainty and ambiguity shrouded situations are most often imposed. In this regard, one may well assume that intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS should stand as a potent technique useful for demystifying associated with the real healthcare decision-making situations. To this end, we are developing a prototype model helpful for detecting the patients risk degree in Intensive Care Unit (ICU. Based on the intuitionistic fuzzy sets, dubbed Medical Intuitionistic Fuzzy Expert Decision Support System (MIFEDSS, the shown work has its origins in the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS standard. It is worth noting that the proposed prototype effectiveness validation is associated through a real case study test at the Polyclinic ESSALEMA cited in Sfax, Tunisia. This paper does actually provide some practical initial results concerning the system as carried out in real life situations. Indeed, the proposed system turns out to prove that the MIFEDSS does actually display an imposing capability for an established handily ICU related uncertainty issues. The performance of the prototypes is compared with the MEWS standard which exposed that the IFS application appears to perform highly better in deferring accuracy than the expert MEWS score with higher degrees of sensitivity and specificity being recorded.

A Heuristic Model for Supporting Users’ Decision-Making in Privacy Disclosure for Recommendation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongchen Wu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Privacy issues have become a major concern in the web of resource sharing, and users often have difficulty managing their information disclosure in the context of high-quality experiences from social media and Internet of Things. Recent studies have shown that users’ disclosure decisions may be influenced by heuristics from the crowds, leading to inconsistency in the disclosure volumes and reduction of the prediction accuracy. Therefore, an analysis of why this influence occurs and how to optimize the user experience is highly important. We propose a novel heuristic model that defines the data structures of items and participants in social media, utilizes a modified decision-tree classifier that can predict participants’ disclosures, and puts forward a correlation analysis for detecting disclosure inconsistences. The heuristic model is applied to real-time dataset to evaluate the behavioral effects. Decision-tree classifier and correlation analysis indeed prove that some participants’ behaviors in information disclosures became decreasingly correlated during item requesting. Participants can be “persuaded” to change their disclosure behaviors, and the users’ answers to the mildly sensitive items tend to be more variable and less predictable. Using this approach, recommender systems in social media can thus know the users better and provide service with higher prediction accuracy.

A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2016-01-01

Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew M Parker

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

1984-01-01

Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

Decision conflict and regret among surrogate decision makers in the medical intensive care unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jesse J; Morris, Peter; Files, D Clark; Gower, Emily; Young, Michael

2016-04-01

Family members of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit face significant morbidity. It may be the decision-making process that plays a significant role in the psychological morbidity associated with being a surrogate in the ICU. We hypothesize that family members facing end-of-life decisions will have more decisional conflict and decisional regret than those facing non-end-of-life decisions. We enrolled a sample of adult patients and their surrogates in a tertiary care, academic medical intensive care unit. We queried the surrogates regarding decisions they had made on behalf of the patient and assessed decision conflict. We then contacted the family member again to assess decision regret. Forty (95%) of 42 surrogates were able to identify at least 1 decision they had made on behalf of the patient. End-of-life decisions (defined as do not resuscitate [DNR]/do not intubate [DNI] or continuation of life support) accounted for 19 of 40 decisions (47.5%). Overall, the average Decision Conflict Scale (DCS) score was 21.9 of 100 (range 0-100, with 0 being little decisional conflict and 100 being great decisional conflict). The average DCS score for families facing end-of-life decisions was 25.5 compared with 18.7 for all other decisions. Those facing end-of-life decisions scored higher on the uncertainty subscale (subset of DCS questions that indicates level of certainty regarding decision) with a mean score of 43.4 compared with all other decisions with a mean score of 27.0. Overall, very few surrogates experienced decisional regret with an average DRS score of 13.4 of 100. Nearly all surrogates enrolled were faced with decision-making responsibilities on behalf of his or her critically ill family member. In our small pilot study, we found more decisional conflict in those surrogates facing end-of-life decisions, specifically on the subset of questions dealing with uncertainty. Surrogates report low levels of decisional regret. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier

Decision-making: Theory and practice

OpenAIRE

SM Turpin; MA Marais

2004-01-01

This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

Stock of Naturalistic Decision Making," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2001, pp. 331-352. Llinas, James, Ann Bisantz, Colin Drury ...on aided adversarial decisionmaking (Llinas, Bisantz, Drury , Song, and Jian, 1998). Cohen argues for a situation-specific trust model: The problem of...and P. Fishwick, eds., 2000, pp. 1739-1746. Camerer, Colin F., "Individual Decision Making," in John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth, eds., Handbook of

Decision making and cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

2015-01-01

We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Laparotomy operative note template constructed through a modified Delphi method.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Lolonya; Churley-Strom, Ruth; Singal, Bonita; O'Leary, Sharon

2009-05-01

An operative note is indispensable to physician documentation and decision-making; however, there are no accepted standards for operative note content. Our aim was to use a modified Delphi consensus-building method to construct a uniform operative note template for laparotomy. Using Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations requirements, literature review, and feedback from 15 medical malpractice defense attorneys, we compiled a draft operative note template of 31 elements. We surveyed 37 Association of Professor of Gynecology and Obstetrics/Solvay scholars asking for their input on inclusion of each item as essential content of the operative note. Two iterations of the survey were required to reach a predetermined 75% level of consensus. Nine elements were eliminated from the template: 6 original and 3 expert-suggested elements. We provide an operative note template that was compiled through a Delphi process.

Message framing and perinatal decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Haward, Marlyse F; Murphy, Ryan O; Lorenz, John M

2008-07-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the effect of information framing on parental decisions about resuscitation of extremely premature infants. Secondary outcomes focused on elucidating the impact of other variables on treatment choices and determining whether those effects would take precedence over any framing effects. This confidential survey study was administered to adult volunteers via the Internet. The surveys depicted a hypothetical vignette of a threatened delivery at gestational age of 23 weeks, with prognostic outcome information framed as either survival with lack of disability (positive frame) or chance of dying and likelihood of disability among survivors (negative frame). Participants were randomly assigned to receive either the positively or negatively framed vignette. They were then asked to choose whether they would prefer resuscitation or comfort care. After completing the survey vignette, participants were directed to a questionnaire designed to test the secondary hypothesis and to explore possible factors associated with treatment decisions. A total of 146 subjects received prognostic information framed as survival data and 146 subjects received prognostic information framed as mortality data. Overall, 24% of the sample population chose comfort care and 76% chose resuscitation. A strong trend was detected toward a framing effect on treatment preference; respondents for whom prognosis was framed as survival data were more likely to elect resuscitation. This framing effect was significant in a multivariate analysis controlling for religiousness, parental status, and beliefs regarding the sanctity of life. Of these covariates, only religiousness modified susceptibility to framing; participants who were not highly religious were significantly more likely to be influenced to opt for resuscitation by the positive frame than were participants who were highly religious. Framing bias may compromise efforts to approach prenatal counseling in a

Organizational decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

2005-09-08

Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

NPD gate decision criteria - a consequence of strategic orientation or decision-maker expertise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søndergård, Helle Alsted Søndergård; Jespersen, Kristina Risom

2008-01-01

criteria at the decision gates. Results from a sample of 132 NPD practitioners studied a simulated NPD process show that the importance of decision criteria is influenced by both the strategic orientation of the company and individual decision-making expertise. Especially the proactive and aggressive...... strategic orientations influence the prioritisation of decision criteria....

The Use of Indicators in Modified Historical Model to Estimate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gottwald Radim

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article mentions several methods of a fundamental analysis used to value stocks. It primarily focuses on the historical model. This model enables undervalued, correctly valued and overvalued stocks to be identified. The model is further modified in the article, using selected accounting indicators. The modified model versions are applied to selected stocks in the SPAD segment, Prague Stock Exchange, within the 2005-2010 period. Empirical analysis is applied to a comparison of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and accuracy of stock intrinsic value estimates, both separately for each stock and accounting indicator. The comparisons of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and the accuracy of the stock intrinsic value estimates are also done based on the length of applied time period. With respect to the obvious fierce competition between stock issuers within the financial markets, the model enables potential investors, who are to select from an extensive offer of stocks, to make better informed investment decisions.

Marketing Decisions and Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuada, John Ernest

The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process

Decision-making: Theory and practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SM Turpin

2004-12-01

Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

Ethical decision making

OpenAIRE

Zsolnai, László

2011-01-01

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

Patient centered decision making: use of conjoint analysis to determine risk-benefit trade-offs for preference sensitive treatment choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Leslie; Loucks, Aimee; Bui, Christine; Gipson, Greg; Zhong, Lixian; Schwartzburg, Amy; Crabtree, Elizabeth; Goodin, Douglas; Waubant, Emmanuelle; McCulloch, Charles

2014-09-15

Understanding patient preferences facilitates shared decision-making and focuses on patient-centered outcomes. Little is known about relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patient preferences for disease modifying therapies (DMTs). We use choice based conjoint (CBC) analysis to calculate patient preferences for risk/benefit trade-offs for hypothetical DMTs. Patients with RRMS were surveyed between 2012 and 2013. Our CBC survey mimicked the decision-making process and trade-offs of patients choosing DMTs, based on all possible DMT attributes. Mixed-effects logistic regression analyzed preferences. We estimated maximum acceptable risk trade-offs for various DMT benefits. Severe side-effect risks had the biggest impact on patient preference with a 1% risk, decreasing patient preference five-fold compared to no risk. (OR=0.22, pbenefit (OR=3.68, pbenefit trade-offs for attributes of all available DMTs. Evaluation of patient preferences is a key step in shared decision making and may significantly impact early drug initiation and compliance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision taking as a service

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.

2012-01-01

Decision taking can be performed as a service to other parties and it is amenable to outtasking rather than to outsourcing. Outtasking decision taking is compatible with selfsourcing of decision making activities carried out in preparation of decision taking. Decision taking as a service (DTaaS) is

Evaluating the investment decision-making process for business expansion into Africa: A case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Kasozi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Africa is a potential domain for international business. However, numerous uncertainties characterize this environment and the challenge for multinationals remains the ability to assess the true value of an Africa-bound investment project. A telecommunications’ survey was conducted on Siemens Southern Africa (Siemens and Mobile Telecommunications’ Network (MTN and the following observations were made: (1 Approaches used by the businesses to value Africa-bound investments were not comprehensive and inclusive. (2 Neutrality existed to the suggestion that Africa is unique and that investment decisions should be customized to suit it. (3 Certain approaches used by the businesses were modified to suit pertaining investment circumstances thereby differing from literature, and (4, participants desired to learn new ways of improving this process suggesting dissatisfaction with the current norm. This paper presents the conflicting ideologies about the decision-making process for business expansion into Africa and suggests ways of improving the process

Rule-based decision making model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sirola, Miki

1998-01-01

A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

Decision Accuracy in Computer-Mediated versus Face-to-Face Decision-Making Teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedlund; Ilgen; Hollenbeck

1998-10-01

Changes in the way organizations are structured and advances in communication technologies are two factors that have altered the conditions under which group decisions are made. Decisions are increasingly made by teams that have a hierarchical structure and whose members have different areas of expertise. In addition, many decisions are no longer made via strictly face-to-face interaction. The present study examines the effects of two modes of communication (face-to-face or computer-mediated) on the accuracy of teams' decisions. The teams are characterized by a hierarchical structure and their members differ in expertise consistent with the framework outlined in the Multilevel Theory of team decision making presented by Hollenbeck, Ilgen, Sego, Hedlund, Major, and Phillips (1995). Sixty-four four-person teams worked for 3 h on a computer simulation interacting either face-to-face (FtF) or over a computer network. The communication mode had mixed effects on team processes in that members of FtF teams were better informed and made recommendations that were more predictive of the correct team decision, but leaders of CM teams were better able to differentiate staff members on the quality of their decisions. Controlling for the negative impact of FtF communication on staff member differentiation increased the beneficial effect of the FtF mode on overall decision making accuracy. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

Family Communication about End-of-Life Decisions and the Enactment of the Decision-Maker Role

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April R. Trees

2017-06-01

Full Text Available End-of-life (EOL decisions in families are complex and emotional sites of family interaction necessitating family members coordinate roles in the EOL decision-making process. How family members in the United States enact the decision-maker role in EOL decision situations was examined through in-depth interviews with 22 individuals who participated in EOL decision-making for a family member. A number of themes emerged from the data with regard to the enactment of the decision-maker role. Families varied in how decision makers enacted the role in relation to collective family input, with consulting, informing and collaborating as different patterns of behavior. Formal family roles along with gender- and age-based roles shaped who took on the decision-maker role. Additionally, both family members and medical professionals facilitated or undermined the decision-maker’s role enactment. Understanding the structure and enactment of the decision-maker role in family interaction provides insight into how individuals and/or family members perform the decision-making role within a cultural context that values autonomy and self-determination in combination with collective family action in EOL decision-making.

Adoptive Immunotherapy for Hematological Malignancies Using T Cells Gene-Modified to Express Tumor Antigen-Specific Receptors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroshi Fujiwara

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Accumulating clinical evidence suggests that adoptive T-cell immunotherapy could be a promising option for control of cancer; evident examples include the graft-vs-leukemia effect mediated by donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI and therapeutic infusion of ex vivo-expanded tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL for melanoma. Currently, along with advances in synthetic immunology, gene-modified T cells retargeted to defined tumor antigens have been introduced as “cellular drugs”. As the functional properties of the adoptive immune response mediated by T lymphocytes are decisively regulated by their T-cell receptors (TCRs, transfer of genes encoding target antigen-specific receptors should enable polyclonal T cells to be uniformly redirected toward cancer cells. Clinically, anticancer adoptive immunotherapy using genetically engineered T cells has an impressive track record. Notable examples include the dramatic benefit of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR gene-modified T cells redirected towards CD19 in patients with B-cell malignancy, and the encouraging results obtained with TCR gene-modified T cells redirected towards NY-ESO-1, a cancer-testis antigen, in patients with advanced melanoma and synovial cell sarcoma. This article overviews the current status of this treatment option, and discusses challenging issues that still restrain the full effectiveness of this strategy, especially in the context of hematological malignancy.

Temporal characteristics of decisions in hospital encounters: a threshold for shared decision making? A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ofstad, Eirik H; Frich, Jan C; Schei, Edvin; Frankel, Richard M; Gulbrandsen, Pål

2014-11-01

To identify and characterize physicians' statements that contained evidence of clinically relevant decisions in encounters with patients in different hospital settings. Qualitative analysis of 50 videotaped encounters from wards, the emergency room (ER) and outpatient clinics in a department of internal medicine at a Norwegian university hospital. Clinical decisions could be grouped in a temporal order: decisions which had already been made, and were brought into the encounter by the physician (preformed decisions), decisions made in the present (here-and-now decisions), and decisions prescribing future actions given a certain course of events (conditional decisions). Preformed decisions were a hallmark in the ward and conditional decisions a main feature of ER encounters. Clinical decisions related to a patient-physician encounter spanned a time frame exceeding the duration of the encounter. While a distribution of decisions over time and space fosters sharing and dilution of responsibility between providers, it makes the decision making process hard to access for patients. In order to plan when and how to involve patients in decisions, physicians need increased awareness of when clinical decisions are made, who usually makes them, and who should make them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Markovian state-space framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Lafleur, Jarret M.

The past decades have seen the state of the art in aerospace system design progress from a scope of simple optimization to one including robustness, with the objective of permitting a single system to perform well even in off-nominal future environments. Integrating flexibility, or the capability to easily modify a system after it has been fielded in response to changing environments, into system design represents a further step forward. One challenge in accomplishing this rests in that the decision-maker must consider not only the present system design decision, but also sequential future design and operation decisions. Despite extensive interest in the topic, the state of the art in designing flexibility into aerospace systems, and particularly space systems, tends to be limited to analyses that are qualitative, deterministic, single-objective, and/or limited to consider a single future time period. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a stochastic, multi-objective, and multi-period framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions. Central to the framework are five steps. First, system configuration options are identified and costs of switching from one configuration to another are compiled into a cost transition matrix. Second, probabilities that demand on the system will transition from one mission to another are compiled into a mission demand Markov chain. Third, one performance matrix for each design objective is populated to describe how well the identified system configurations perform in each of the identified mission demand environments. The fourth step employs multi-period decision analysis techniques, including Markov decision processes from the field of operations research, to find efficient paths and policies a decision-maker may follow. The final step examines the implications of these paths and policies for the primary goal of informing initial system selection. Overall, this thesis unifies state-centric concepts of

Phosphonium modified clay/polyimide nanocomposites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceylan, Hatice; Çakmakçi, Emrah; Beyler-Çiǧil, Asli; Kahraman, Memet Vezir

2014-01-01

In this study, octyltriphenylphosphonium bromide [OTPP-Br] was prepared from the reaction of triphenylphosphine and 1 -bromooctane. The modification of clay was done by ion exchange reaction using OTPP-Br in water medium. Poly(amic acid) was prepared from the reaction of 3,3',4,4'-Benzophenonetetracarboxylic dianhydride (BTDA) and 4,4'-Oxydianiline (ODA). Polyimide(PI)/clay hybrids were prepared by blending of poly(amic acid) and organically modified clay as a type of layered clays. The morphology of the Polyimide/ phosphonium modified clay hybrids was characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Chemical structures of polyimide and Polyimide/ phosphonium modified clay hybrids were characterized by FTIR. SEM and FTIR results showed that the Polyimide/ phosphonium modified clay hybrids were successfully prepared. Thermal properties of the Polyimide/ phosphonium modified clay hybrids were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA)

Adsorption of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons from aqueous solution: Agrowaste-modified kaolinite vs surfactant modified bentonite

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. I. Unuabonah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The adsorption efficiency of a new hybrid clay adsorbent for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs is compared with known modified clay adsorbents. The new hybrid clay adsorbent (HYCA showed far higher adsorption capacities for the adsorption of various PAH molecules compared with sodium dodecyl sulfate modified and humic acid modified Bentonite clay adsorbents. With the new hybrid clay adsorbent (HYCA, the adsorption of some of the larger PAH molecules was complete in the first 1 h as compared with ≈ 62% and ≈ 76% observed for both humic acid modified and sodium dodecyl sulfate modified Bentonite clay adsorbents respectively. In 24 h adsorption of the PAHs was complete for all adsorbents with HYCA adsorbent showing better efficiency in the removal of the PAH molecules from aqueous solutions. No significant change was observed with increase in time up to 48 h. The adsorption was observed to be more spontaneous with HYCA adsorbent than with either modified Bentonite adsorbents. The enthalpy of adsorption did not follow any specific order and were not consistent for all PAH molecules considered.

Decision theory for discrimination-aware classification

KAUST Repository

Kamiran, Faisal

2012-12-01

Social discrimination (e.g., against females) arising from data mining techniques is a growing concern worldwide. In recent years, several methods have been proposed for making classifiers learned over discriminatory data discriminationaware. However, these methods suffer from two major shortcomings: (1) They require either modifying the discriminatory data or tweaking a specific classification algorithm and (2) They are not flexible w.r.t. discrimination control and multiple sensitive attribute handling. In this paper, we present two solutions for discrimination-aware classification that neither require data modification nor classifier tweaking. Our first and second solutions exploit, respectively, the reject option of probabilistic classifier(s) and the disagreement region of general classifier ensembles to reduce discrimination. We relate both solutions with decision theory for better understanding of the process. Our experiments using real-world datasets demonstrate that our solutions outperform existing state-ofthe-art methods, especially at low discrimination which is a significant advantage. The superior performance coupled with flexible control over discrimination and easy applicability to multiple sensitive attributes makes our solutions an important step forward in practical discrimination-aware classification. © 2012 IEEE.

Effective decision making 10 steps to better decision making and problem solving

CERN Document Server

Kourdi, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.

Decision Performance Using Spatial Decision Support Systems: A Geospatial Reasoning Ability Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Erskine, Michael A.

2013-01-01

As many consumer and business decision makers are utilizing Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), a thorough understanding of how such decisions are made is crucial for the information systems domain. This dissertation presents six chapters encompassing a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geospatial reasoning ability on…

Dual Criteria Decisions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

2014-01-01

The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...... to the clear role that income thresholds play in such decision making, but does not rule out a role for tradeoffs between risk and utility or probability weighting....

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

Science.gov (United States)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-12-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

Evaluating Adaptation of a Cancer Clinical Trial Decision Aid for Rural Cancer Patients: A Mixed-Methods Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Pathak, Swati; George, Nerissa; Monti, Denise; Robinson, Kathy; Politi, Mary C

2018-06-03

Rural-residing cancer patients often do not participate in clinical trials. Many patients misunderstand cancer clinical trials and their rights as participant. The purpose of this study is to modify a previously developed cancer clinical trials decision aid (DA), incorporating the unique needs of rural populations, and test its impact on knowledge and decision outcomes. The study was conducted in two phases. Phase I recruited 15 rural-residing cancer survivors in a qualitative usability study. Participants navigated the original DA and provided feedback regarding usability and implementation in rural settings. Phase II recruited 31 newly diagnosed rural-residing cancer patients. Patients completed a survey before and after using the revised DA, R-CHOICES. Primary outcomes included decisional conflict, decision self-efficacy, knowledge, communication self-efficacy, and attitudes towards and willingness to consider joining a trial. In phase I, the DA was viewed positively by rural-residing cancer survivors. Participants provided important feedback about factors rural-residing patients consider when thinking about trial participation. In phase II, after using R-CHOICES, participants had higher certainty about their choice (mean post-test = 3.10 vs. pre-test = 2.67; P = 0.025) and higher trial knowledge (mean percentage correct at post-test = 73.58 vs. pre-test = 57.77; P decision self-efficacy, communication self-efficacy, and attitudes towards or willingness to join trials. The R-CHOICES improved rural-residing patients' knowledge of cancer clinical trials and reduced conflict about making a trial decision. More research is needed on ways to further support decisions about trial participation among this population.

Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Sedlár

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface-modified electrodes (SME)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schreurs, J.P.G.M.; Barendrecht, E.

1984-01-01

This review deals with the literature (covered up to August 1983), the characterization and the applications of Surface-Modified Electrodes (SME). As a special class of SME's, the Enzyme-Modified Electrode (EME) is introduced. Three types of modification procedures are distinguished; i.e. covalent

When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

2012-01-01

The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Nigro, Joseph; Toll, David; Partington, Ed; Ni-Meister, Wenge; Lee, Shihyan; Gutierrez-Magness, Angelica; Engman, Ted; Arsenault, Kristi

2010-01-01

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Decision table languages and systems

CERN Document Server

Metzner, John R

1977-01-01

ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

Modified blank ammunition injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogunc, Gokhan I; Ozer, M Tahir; Coskun, Kagan; Uzar, Ali Ihsan

2009-12-15

Blank firing weapons are designed only for discharging blank ammunition cartridges. Because they are cost-effective, are easily accessible and can be modified to live firearms plus their unclear legal situation in Turkish Law makes them very popular in Turkey. 2004 through 2008, a total of 1115 modified blank weapons were seized in Turkey. Blank firing weapons are easily modified by owners, making them suitable for discharging live firearm ammunition or modified blank ammunitions. Two common methods are used for modification of blank weapons. After the modification, these weapons can discharge the live ammunition. However, due to compositional durability problems with these types of weapons; the main trend is to use the modified blank ammunitions rather than live firearm ammunition fired from modified blank firing weapons. In this study, two types of modified blank weapons and two types of modified blank cartridges were tested on three different target models. Each of the models' shooting side was coated with 1.3+/-2 mm thickness chrome tanned cowhide as a skin simulant. The first model was only coated with skin simulant. The second model was coated with skin simulant and 100% cotton police shirt. The third model was coated with skin simulant and jean denim. After the literature evaluation four high risky anatomic locations (the neck area; the eyes; the thorax area and inguinal area) were pointed out for the steel and lead projectiles are discharged from the modified blank weapons especially in close range (0-50 cm). The target models were designed for these anatomic locations. For the target models six Transparent Ballistic Candle blocks (TCB) were prepared and divided into two test groups. The first group tests were performed with lead projectiles and second group with steel projectile. The shortest penetration depth (lead projectile: 4.358 cm; steel projectile 8.032 cm) was recorded in the skin simulant and jean denim coated block for both groups. In both groups

A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

2016-03-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool.

Utility of diffusion tensor imaging tractography in decision making for extratemporal resective epilepsy surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Radhakrishnan, Ashalatha; James, Jija S; Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Thomas, Bejoy; Bahuleyan, Biji; Abraham, Mathew; Radhakrishnan, Kurupath

2011-11-01

To assess the utility of diffusion tensor imaging tractography (DTIT) in decision making in patients considered for extratemporal resective epilepsy surgery. We subjected 49 patients with drug-resistant focal seizures due to lesions located in frontal, parietal and occipital lobes to DTIT to map the white matter fiber anatomy in relation to the planned resection zone, in addition to routine presurgical evaluation. We stratified our patients preoperatively into different grades of risk for anticipated neurological deficits as judged by the distance of the white matter tracts from the resection zones and functional cortical areas. Thirty-seven patients underwent surgery; surgery was abandoned in 12 (24.5%) patients because of the high risk of postoperative neurological deficit. DTIT helped us to modify the surgical procedures in one-fourth of occipital, one-third of frontal, and two-thirds of parietal and multilobar resections. Overall, DTIT assisted us in surgical decision making in two-thirds of our patients. DTIT is a noninvasive imaging strategy that can be used effectively in planning resection of epileptogenic lesions at or close to eloquent cortical areas. DTIT helps in predicting postoperative neurological outcome and thereby assists in surgical decision making and in preoperative counseling of patients with extratemporal focal epilepsies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social rank and social cooperation: Impact of social comparison processes on cooperative decision-making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Gong

Full Text Available Successful navigation of our complex social world requires the capability to recognize and judge the relative status of others. Hence, social comparison processes are of great importance in our interactions, informing us of our relative standing and in turn potentially motivating our behavior. However, so far few studies have examined in detail how social comparison can influence interpersonal decision-making. One aspect of social decision-making that is of particular importance is cooperative behavior, and identifying means of maintaining and promoting cooperation in the provision of public goods is of vital interest to society. Here, we manipulated social comparison by grading performance rankings on a reaction time task, and then measured cooperative decisions via a modified Public Goods Game (PGG. Findings revealed that individuals ranked highest tended to be more cooperative as compared to those who placed in the bottom rank. Interestingly, this effect was regardless of whether the comparison group members were the subsequent players in the PGG or not, and this effect was stronger in those with higher social orientation. In summary, the present research shows how different social comparison processes (assessed via social rankings can operate in our daily interaction with others, demonstrating an important effect on cooperative behavior.

Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, D.

2012-12-01

social construction of climate change, not scientific claims, that are shaping decisions. While certainty is the common demand of those charged with making decisions concerning climate change, certainty is the quality that seems to be given least value in taking action. Weather records are all but ignored. The direct voice of scientists was heeded but not fully accepted. In the transition, the truth-to-power model appears to be somewhat modified, whereby power states that the future will be different, but the difference is determined by other sources; shaping images of risk and danger. One could not deny that climate and sea level have always been forces shaping patterns of human settlement. And one could not deny that perhaps the time is nigh to reassess the human relationship with nature. However, any measure considered should be done so with a rational sense of objectivity. To do otherwise, there is the risk of misallocating scare resources.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

2011-01-01

The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

A rough set approach for determining weights of decision makers in group decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiang; Du, Ping-An; Wang, Yong; Liang, Bin

2017-01-01

This study aims to present a novel approach for determining the weights of decision makers (DMs) based on rough group decision in multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems. First, we construct a rough group decision matrix from all DMs' decision matrixes on the basis of rough set theory. After that, we derive a positive ideal solution (PIS) founded on the average matrix of rough group decision, and negative ideal solutions (NISs) founded on the lower and upper limit matrixes of rough group decision. Then, we obtain the weight of each group member and priority order of alternatives by using relative closeness method, which depends on the distances from each individual group member' decision to the PIS and NISs. Through comparisons with existing methods and an on-line business manager selection example, the proposed method show that it can provide more insights into the subjectivity and vagueness of DMs' evaluations and selections.

Computerized operator decision aids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, A.B.

1984-01-01

This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability

Decision Making in the Airplane

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

Intelligent Decision Technologies : Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies

CERN Document Server

Watanabe, Toyohide; Phillips-Wren, Gloria; Howlett, Robert; Jain, Lakhmi

2012-01-01

The Intelligent Decision Technologies (IDT) International Conference encourages an interchange of research on intelligent systems and intelligent technologies that enhance or improve decision making. The focus of IDT is interdisciplinary and includes research on all aspects of intelligent decision technologies, from fundamental development to real applications. IDT has the potential to expand their support of decision making in such areas as finance, accounting, marketing, healthcare, medical and diagnostic systems, military decisions, production and operation, networks, traffic management, crisis response, human-machine interfaces, financial and stock market monitoring and prediction, and robotics. Intelligent decision systems implement advances in intelligent agents, fuzzy logic, multi-agent systems, artificial neural networks, and genetic algorithms, among others.  Emerging areas of active research include virtual decision environments, social networking, 3D human-machine interfaces, cognitive interfaces,...

Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

Science.gov (United States)

Flaming, Susan C.

2007-12-01

The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eroğlu Başak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

Intelligent Decision Support in Proportional–Stop-Loss Reinsurance Using Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirley Jie Xuan Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This article addresses the possibility of incorporating intelligent decision support systems into reinsurance decision-making. This involves the insurance company and the reinsurance company, and is negotiated through reinsurance intermediaries. The article proposes a decision flow to model the reinsurance design and selection process. This article focuses on adopting more than one optimality criteria under a more generic combinational design of commonly used reinsurance products, i.e., proportional reinsurance and stop-loss reinsurance. In terms of methodology, the significant contribution of the study the incorporation of the well-established decision analysis tool multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM into the modelling of reinsurance selection. To illustrate the feasibility of incorporating intelligent decision supporting systems in the reinsurance market, the study includes a numerical case study using the simulation software @Risk in modeling insurance claims, as well as programming in MATLAB to realize MADM. A list of managerial implications could be drawn from the case study results. Most importantly, when choosing the most appropriate type of reinsurance, insurance companies should base their decisions on multiple measurements instead of single-criteria decision-making models so that their decisions may be more robust.

Human factors influencing decision making

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

[Interoception and decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Ohira, Hideki

2015-02-01

We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

Decisions during Negatively-Framed Messages Yield Smaller Risk-Aversion-Related Brain Activation in Substance-Dependent Individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

2012-01-01

A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared to non-substance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PMID:23148798

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

Science.gov (United States)

Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

An extension of fuzzy decision maps for multi-criteria decision-making

OpenAIRE

Elomda, Basem Mohamed; Hefny, Hesham Ahmed; Hassan, Hesham Ahmed

2013-01-01

This paper presents a new extension to Fuzzy Decision Maps (FDMs) by allowing use of fuzzy linguistic values to represent relative importance among criteria in the preference matrix as well as representing relative influence among criteria for computing the steady-state matrix in the stage of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). The proposed model is called the Linguistic Fuzzy Decision Networks (LFDNs). The proposed LFDN provides considerable flexibility to decision makers when solving real world Mult...

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen M. Thorne

2015-03-01

strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, Karen M.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Cummings, Jonathan; Crouse, Debby; Block, Giselle; Bloom, Valary; Gerhart, Matt; Goldbeck, Steve; Huning, Beth; Sloop, Christina; Stewart, Mendel; Taylor, Karen; Valoppi, Laura

2015-01-01

considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

Evaluation and determination of soil remediation schemes using a modified AHP model and its application in a contaminated coking plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xingang; Li, Jia; Sui, Hong; He, Lin; Cao, Xingtao; Li, Yonghong

2018-07-05

Soil remediation has been considered as one of the most difficult pollution treatment tasks due to its high complexity in contaminants, geological conditions, usage, urgency, etc. The diversity in remediation technologies further makes quick selection of suitable remediation schemes much tougher even the site investigation has been done. Herein, a sustainable decision support hierarchical model has been developed to select, evaluate and determine preferred soil remediation schemes comprehensively based on modified analytic hierarchy process (MAHP). This MAHP method combines competence model and the Grubbs criteria with the conventional AHP. It not only considers the competence differences among experts in group decision, but also adjusts the big deviation caused by different experts' preference through sample analysis. This conversion allows the final remediation decision more reasonable. In this model, different evaluation criteria, including economic effect, environmental effect and technological effect, are employed to evaluate the integrated performance of remediation schemes followed by a strict computation using above MAHP. To confirm the feasibility of this developed model, it has been tested by a benzene workshop contaminated site in Beijing coking plant. Beyond soil remediation, this MAHP model would also be applied in other fields referring to multi-criteria group decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Group Decision Rules Affect Trust? A Laboratory Experiment on Group Decision Rules and Trust

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Julie Hassing

2016-01-01

Enhanced participation has been prescribed as the way forward for improving democratic decision making while generating positive attributes like trust. Yet we do not know the extent to which rules affect the outcome of decision making. This article investigates how different group decision rules......-hierarchical decision-making procedures enhance trust vis-à-vis other more hierarchical decision-making procedures....... affect group trust by testing three ideal types of decision rules (i.e., a Unilateral rule, a Representative rule and a 'Non-rule') in a laboratory experiment. The article shows significant differences between the three decision rules on trust after deliberation. Interestingly, however, it finds...

The Experience of Decision Making in the Care of Children with Palliative Care Needs: The Experiences of Jordanian Mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Atout, Maha; Hemingway, Pippa; Seymour, Jane

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the experience of decision making in the care of children with palliative care needs in Jordan, from the perspective of their mothers. This study employed a collective qualitative case study approach. Data were collected in 3 pediatric wards in a Jordanian hospital. The study used 2 data collection methods: participant observation (197 observational hours) and 56 semi-structured interviews with 24 mothers, 12 physicians and 20 nurses. The findings show how Jordanian mothers seek to transfer the role of decision making to physicians, as they perceive themselves to be unable to make decisions about critical issues related to the treatment of their children. Mothers had a widespread apprehension of "future guilt," especially when they feared that any decisions they might make could have an adverse impact on their children. Contrary to the predominant pattern, some mothers took a proactive approach towards decision making about their children's treatment. These mothers requested detailed information from primary physicians and sought different sources of knowledge such as second opinions, reading online resources, or talking to other parents who had a child with similar circumstances. The study concludes that mothers prefer to involve physicians in decisions about their children's healthcare and treatment to eliminate their fear of probable future guilt; this modifies any tendency to autonomously decide for their children. These findings are underpinned by the Jordanian culture in which doctors' opinions are highly regarded.

Modelling decision-making by pilots

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

1993-01-01

Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-01-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

Influence of [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography on salvage treatment decision making for locally persistent nasopharyngeal carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Xiaojang; Chen Longhua; Wang Quanshi; Wu Fubing

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of [ 18 F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in influencing salvage treatment decision making for locally persistent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods and Materials: A total of 33 NPC patients with histologic persistence at nasopharynx 1 to 6 weeks after a full course of radiotherapy underwent both computed tomography (CT) and FDG-PET/CT simulation at the same treatment position. The salvage treatment decisions, with regard to the decision to offer salvage treatment and the definition of gross tumor volume (GTV), were made before knowledge of the FDG-PET findings. Subsequently the salvage treatment decisions were made again based on the FDG-PET findings and compared with the pre-FDG-PET decisions. Results: All 33 patients were referred for salvage treatment in the pre-FDG-PET decision. After knowledge of the FDG-PET results, the decision to offer salvage treatment was withdrawn in 4 of 33 patients (12.1%), as no abnormal uptake of FDG was found at nasopharynx. Spontaneous remission was observed in repeat biopsies and no local recurrence was found in these 4 cases. For the remaining 29 patients, GTV based on FDG-PET was smaller than GTV based on CT in 24 (82.8%) cases and was greater in 5 (17.2%) cases, respectively. The target volume had to be significantly modified in 9 of 29 patients (31%), as GTV based on FDG-PET images failed to be enclosed by the treated volume in the salvage treatment plan performed based on GTV based on CT simulation images. Conclusion: Use of FDG-PET was found to influence the salvage treatment decision making for locally persistent NPC by identifying patients who were not likely to benefit from additional treatment and by improving accuracy of GTV definition in salvage treatment planning

Shared Decisions That Count.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlechty, Phillip C.

1993-01-01

Advocates of participatory leadership, site-based management, and decentralization often assume that changing decision-making group composition will automatically improve the quality of decisions being made. Stakeholder satisfaction does not guarantee quality results. This article offers a framework for moving the decision-making discussion from…

Fluorescent cellulose nanocrystals via supramolecular assembly of terpyridine-modified cellulose nanocrystals and terpyridine-modified perylene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Mohammad L.; Moorefield, Charles M.; Elbatal, Hany S.; Newkome, George R.; Modarelli, David A.; Romano, Natalie C.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Surfaces of cellulose nanocrystals were modified with terpyridine ligands. ► Fluorescent nanocrystals could be obtained via self-assembly of terpyridine-modified perylene dye onto the terpyridine-modified cellulose nanocrystals. ► Further self-assembly of azide-functionalized terpyridine onto the fluorescent cellulose nanocrystals was possible to obtain nanocellulosic material with expected use in bioimaging. - Abstract: Due to their natural origin, biocompatibility, and non-toxicity, cellulose nanocrystals are promising candidates for applications in nanomedicine. Highly fluorescent nanocellulosic material was prepared via surface modification of cellulose nanocrystals with 2,2′:6′,2″-terpyridine side chains followed by supramolecular assembly of terpyridine-modified perylene dye onto the terpyridine-modified cellulose nanocrystals (CTP) via Ru III /Ru II reduction. The prepared terpyridine-modified cellulose-Ru II -terpyridine-modified perylene (CTP-Ru II -PeryTP) fluorescent nanocrystals were characterized using cross-polarized/magic angle spin 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (CP/MAS 13 C NMR), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), UV–visible, and fluorescence spectroscopy. In addition, further self-assembly of terpyridine units with azide functional groups onto CTP-Ru II -PeryTP was possible via repeating the Ru III /Ru II reduction protocol to prepare supramolecular fluorescent nanocrystals with azide functionality (CTP-Ru II -PeryTP-Ru II -AZTP). The prepared derivative may have potential application in bio-imaging since the terminal azide groups can be easily reacted with antigens via “Click” chemistry reaction.

Decisions and desire.

Science.gov (United States)

Morse, Gardiner

2006-01-01

When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teachers' Grading Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

2017-01-01

This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

Tools for collaborative decision-making

CERN Document Server

Zaraté, Pascale

2013-01-01

Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

Enhancing shared decision making through assessment of patient-clinician concordance on decision quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Selby, Warwick; Salkeld, Glenn

to quantify, document, and suggest how future dyadic decisions can be enhanced by criterion prioritisation. Associations between patient’s MDQ-W before, and MDQ-R after consultation with their clinician were analysed along with patient scores from the Satisfaction With Decision (SWD) instrument. Results...... and clinician using the dually-personalised decomposable MyDecisionQuality (MDQ) instrument. This has the potential to guide future work on optimising dyad-specific patient-clinician communication for shared decision making and informed consent....

Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

OpenAIRE

Li Hao; Wing Suen

2009-01-01

This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

Decision support systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.

2007-01-01

system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....

Modified Firefly Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surafel Luleseged Tilahun

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Firefly algorithm is one of the new metaheuristic algorithms for optimization problems. The algorithm is inspired by the flashing behavior of fireflies. In the algorithm, randomly generated solutions will be considered as fireflies, and brightness is assigned depending on their performance on the objective function. One of the rules used to construct the algorithm is, a firefly will be attracted to a brighter firefly, and if there is no brighter firefly, it will move randomly. In this paper we modify this random movement of the brighter firefly by generating random directions in order to determine the best direction in which the brightness increases. If such a direction is not generated, it will remain in its current position. Furthermore the assignment of attractiveness is modified in such a way that the effect of the objective function is magnified. From the simulation result it is shown that the modified firefly algorithm performs better than the standard one in finding the best solution with smaller CPU time.

How Exposure to ”Role Model” Projects Can Lead to Decisions for More Sustainable Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Harris

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A role model, whether an individual or a project, can inspire similar performance in others. This research examines such a phenomenon during the design process for more sustainable physical infrastructure. In this empirical study, engineering professionals (n = 54 were randomly assigned either a modified version of the Envision rating system for sustainable infrastructure, which was changed to include details from an exemplary role model project, or the current version of Envision, with no role model. Professionals given the role model version of Envision achieved on average 34% more points (SD = 27 than the control group (p = 0.001. A positive role model project appears to lead engineering professionals to higher goals for sustainability performance in their design decisions. This finding, and the corresponding line of interdisciplinary research, can be used in decision-structuring interventions, which are a relatively low-cost approach to support greater sustainability in physical infrastructure development.

Decision aid on breast cancer screening reduces attendance rate: results of a large-scale, randomized, controlled study by the DECIDEO group

Science.gov (United States)

Bourmaud, Aurelie; Soler-Michel, Patricia; Oriol, Mathieu; Regnier, Véronique; Tinquaut, Fabien; Nourissat, Alice; Bremond, Alain; Moumjid, Nora; Chauvin, Franck

2016-01-01

Controversies regarding the benefits of breast cancer screening programs have led to the promotion of new strategies taking into account individual preferences, such as decision aid. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a decision aid leaflet on the participation of women invited to participate in a national breast cancer screening program. This Randomized, multicentre, controlled trial. Women aged 50 to 74 years, were randomly assigned to receive either a decision aid or the usual invitation letter. Primary outcome was the participation rate 12 months after the invitation. 16 000 women were randomized and 15 844 included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. The participation rate in the intervention group was 40.25% (3174/7885 women) compared with 42.13% (3353/7959) in the control group (p = 0.02). Previous attendance for screening (RR = 6.24; [95%IC: 5.75-6.77]; p < 0.0001) and medium household income (RR = 1.05; [95%IC: 1.01-1.09]; p = 0.0074) were independently associated with attendance for screening. This large-scale study demonstrates that the decision aid reduced the participation rate. The decision aid activate the decision making process of women toward non-attendance to screening. These results show the importance of promoting informed patient choices, especially when those choices cannot be anticipated. PMID:26883201

A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Min Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

Regret in repeat purchase versus switching decisions : The attenuating role of decision justifiability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Inman, J.J.; Zeelenberg, M.

2002-01-01

The decision-making literature has consistently reported that decisions to maintain the status quo tend to be regretted less than decisions to change it. We examine the consequences of repeat purchasing (maintaining the status quo) versus switching in the context of information regarding the reason

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-01-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

Decisive Markov Chains

OpenAIRE

Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

2007-01-01

We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

Risk-based emergency decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerte, Jens

2003-01-01

In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

How decision reversibility affects motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bullens, Lottie; van Harreveld, Frenk; Förster, Jens; Higgins, Tory E

2014-04-01

The present research examined how decision reversibility can affect motivation. On the basis of extant findings, it was suggested that 1 way it could affect motivation would be to strengthen different regulatory foci, with reversible decision making, compared to irreversible decision making, strengthening prevention-related motivation relatively more than promotion-related motivation. If so, then decision reversibility should have effects associated with the relative differences between prevention and promotion motivation. In 5 studies, we manipulated the reversibility of a decision and used different indicators of regulatory focus motivation to test these predictions. Specifically, Study 1 tested for differences in participants' preference for approach versus avoidance strategies toward a desired end state. In Study 2, we used speed and accuracy performance as indicators of participants' regulatory motivation, and in Study 3, we measured global versus local reaction time performance. In Study 4, we approached the research question in a different way, making use of the value-from-fit hypothesis (Higgins, 2000, 2002). We tested whether a fit between chronic regulatory focus and focus induced by the reversibility of the decision increased participants' subjective positive feelings about the decision outcome. Finally, in Study 5, we tested whether regulatory motivation, induced by decision reversibility, also influenced participants' preference in specific product features. The results generally support our hypothesis showing that, compared to irreversible decisions, reversible decisions strengthen a prevention focus more than a promotion focus. Implications for research on decision making are discussed.

Nurses' Clinical Decision Making on Adopting a Wound Clinical Decision Support System.

Science.gov (United States)

Khong, Peck Chui Betty; Hoi, Shu Yin; Holroyd, Eleanor; Wang, Wenru

2015-07-01

Healthcare information technology systems are considered the ideal tool to inculcate evidence-based nursing practices. The wound clinical decision support system was built locally to support nurses to manage pressure ulcer wounds in their daily practice. However, its adoption rate is not optimal. The study's objective was to discover the concepts that informed the RNs' decisions to adopt the wound clinical decision support system as an evidence-based technology in their nursing practice. This was an exploratory, descriptive, and qualitative design using face-to-face interviews, individual interviews, and active participatory observation. A purposive, theoretical sample of 14 RNs was recruited from one of the largest public tertiary hospitals in Singapore after obtaining ethics approval. After consenting, the nurses were interviewed and observed separately. Recruitment stopped when data saturation was reached. All transcribed interview data underwent a concurrent thematic analysis, whereas observational data were content analyzed independently and subsequently triangulated with the interview data. Eight emerging themes were identified, namely, use of the wound clinical decision support system, beliefs in the wound clinical decision support system, influences of the workplace culture, extent of the benefits, professional control over nursing practices, use of knowledge, gut feelings, and emotions (fear, doubt, and frustration). These themes represented the nurses' mental outlook as they made decisions on adopting the wound clinical decision support system in light of the complexities of their roles and workloads. This research has provided insight on the nurses' thoughts regarding their decision to interact with the computer environment in a Singapore context. It captured the nurses' complex thoughts when deciding whether to adopt or reject information technology as they practice in a clinical setting.

Coordinating Information and Decisions of Hierarchical Distributed Decision Units in Crises

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library