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Sample records for models subalpine forest

  1. A Comparison of the Diel Cycle of Modeled and Measured Latent Heat Flux During the Warm Season in a Colorado Subalpine Forest

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    Burns, Sean P.; Swenson, Sean C.; Wieder, William R.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.

    2018-03-01

    Precipitation changes the physiological characteristics of an ecosystem. Because land-surface models are often used to project changes in the hydrological cycle, modeling the effect of precipitation on the latent heat flux λE is an important aspect of land-surface models. Here we contrast conditionally sampled diel composites of the eddy-covariance fluxes from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 4.5). With respect to measured λE during the warm season: for the day following above-average precipitation, λE was enhanced at midday by ≈40 W m-2 (relative to dry conditions), and nocturnal λE increased from ≈10 W m-2 in dry conditions to over 20 W m-2 in wet conditions. With default settings, CLM4.5 did not successfully model these changes. By increasing the amount of time that rainwater was retained by the canopy/needles, CLM was able to match the observed midday increase in λE on a dry day following a wet day. Stable nighttime conditions were problematic for CLM4.5. Nocturnal CLM λE had only a small (≈3 W m-2) increase during wet conditions, CLM nocturnal friction velocity u∗ was smaller than observed u∗, and CLM canopy air temperature was 2°C less than those measured at the site. Using observed u∗ as input to CLM increased λE; however, this caused CLM λE to be increased during both wet and dry periods. We suggest that sloped topography and the ever-present drainage flow enhanced nocturnal u∗ and λE. Such phenomena would not be properly captured by topographically blind land-surface models, such as CLM.

  2. Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

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    Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

    2017-06-01

    Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower

  3. Susceptible conditions for debarking by deer in subalpine coniferous forests in central Japan

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    Hayato Iijima

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recently, deer have expanded their distribution to higher altitude ranges including subalpine forests. However, culling deer and construction of deer fence in subalpine forests are difficult because of steep slopes and complex topography. Thus it is necessary to clarify the factors which are associated with debarking by deer for the effective protection of subalpine forests. In this study, we examined which factors are associated with debarking by sika deer (Cervus nippon in subalpine coniferous forests. Methods: We conducted our survey in Minami-Alps National Park, central Japan. We established 24 10 m× 40 m plots and surveyed the occurrence of debarking on saplings >30 cm in height and 3 cm in DBH, as well as sapling density within each plot. Minimum distances to nearest grassland of plots were calculated (tentatively assuming grassland would attract deer and would cause high debarking pressure in the surrounding subalpine forests. Results: The mean percentage of debarked live saplings was higher than that of live trees. The mean percentage of debarked saplings which had already died was 81.6 %. Debarking of saplings increased with lower elevation, taller sapling size, and marginally increased near grassland. Sapling density was lower in plots with low basal area of conspecific trees near grassland and differed among species. Sapling density marginally decreased with decreasing elevation and increasing stand tree density. Debarking of trees was positively related to small DBH and low elevation, and marginally increased near grassland and differed among species. Conclusions: Our results suggest that tall saplings in subalpine forests of low elevation or near subalpine grassland were susceptible to debarking by deer and monitoring of these areas may permit the early detection of the impacts of deer in subalpine coniferous forests. Keywords: Abies, Cervus nippon, Debarking, Grassland, Picea, Sapling density, Subalpine region

  4. Soil seed banks along elevational gradients in tropical, subtropical and subalpine forests in Yunnan Province, southwest China

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    Xiaqin Luo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Soil seed banks are a vital part of ecosystems and influence community dynamics and regeneration. Although soil seed banks in different habitats have been reported, how soil seed banks vary with elevational gradients in different climatic zones is still unknown. This paper investigates seed density, species composition and nonconstituent species of forest soil seed banks in Yunnan Province, southwest China. Similarity between the soil seed bank and standing vegetation was also examined. We collected soil samples from sites spanning 12 elevations in tropical rain forests, subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests and subalpine coniferous forests, and transported them to a glasshouse for germination trials for species identification. The soil seed banks of tropical and subtropical forests had much higher seed densities and species richness than those of subalpine forests. Seeds of woody species dominated the soil seed banks of tropical and subtropical forests, while herbs dominated those of subalpine forests. The nonconstituent species in the soil seed banks were all herbs and were most abundant in tropical forests, followed by subtropical forests but were completely absent from subalpine forests.

  5. Soil seed banks along elevational gradients in tropical, subtropical and subalpine forests in Yunnan Province, southwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaqin Luo; Min Cao; Min Zhang; Xiaoyang Song; Jieqiong Li; Akihiro Nakamura; Roger Kitching

    2017-01-01

    Soil seed banks are a vital part of ecosystems and influence community dynamics and regeneration.Although soil seed banks in different habitats have been reported,how soil seed banks vary with elerational gradients in different climatic zones is still unknown.This paper investigates seed density,species composition and nonconstituent species of forest soil seed banks in Yunnan Province,southwest China.Similarity between the soil seed bank and standing vegetation was also examined.We collected soil samples from sites spanning 12 elevations in tropical rain forests,subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests and subalpine coniferous forests,and transported them to a glasshouse for germination trials for species identification.The soil seed banks of tropical and subtropical forests had much higher seed densities and species richness than those of subalpine forests.Seeds of woody species dominated the soil seed banks of tropical and subtropical forests,while herbs dominated those of subalpine forests.The nonconstituent species in the soil seed banks were all herbs and were most abundant in tropical forests,followed by subtropical forests but were completely absent from subalpine forests.

  6. [Diversity of soil nematode communities in the subalpine and alpine forests of western Sichuan, China.

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    Chen, Ya; Yang, Wan Qin; Wu, Fu Zhong; Yang, Fan; Lan, Li Ying; Liu, Yu Wei; Guo, Cai Hong; Tan, Bo

    2017-10-01

    In order to understand the diversity of soil nematodes in the subalpine/alpine forests of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, soil nematodes in the primary forest, mixed forest and secondary forest of Abies faxoniana were extracted by elutriation and sugar-centrifugation method in July 2015, and the composition and structure characteristics of soil nematode communities were studied in the three forests at different altitudes. A total of 37950 soil nematodes were collected, which belonged to 20 families and 27 genera, and the mean density was 4217 ind·100 g -1 dry soil. Filenchus was the dominant genus in the primary forest, and Filenchus and Pararotylenchus in the mixed forest and secondary forest, respectively. The individual number of each dominant genus was significantly affected by forest type. All nematode individuals were classified into the four trophic groups of bacterivores, fungivores, plant-parasites and omnivore-predators. The fungivores were dominant in the primary and secondary forest and the bacterivores in the mixed forest. The number of soil nematode c-p (colonizer-persister) groups of c-p 1, c-p 2, c-p 3 and c-p 4 accounted for 6.1%, 51.1%, 30.0% and 12.7% of the total nematode abundance, respectively. The maturity index (MI), the total maturity index (∑MI) and the plant parasitic index (PPI) of soil nematodes decreased gradually with the increase of altitude. The nematode channel ratio in the mixed forest was higher than 0.5, but that in the primary forest and secondary forest was below 0.5. The forest type significantly affected the soil nematode maturity index and channel ratio, but the forest type, soil layer and their interaction had no significant effect on the diversity index. There were obvious diffe-rences in the composition, nutrient structure and energy flow channel of soil nematodes in the subalpine/alpine forests of western Sichuan, providing an important reference for understanding the function of soil nematodes in soil processes

  7. Use of passive UAS imaging to measure biophysical parameters in a southern Rocky Mountain subalpine forest

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    Caldwell, M. K.; Sloan, J.; Mladinich, C. S.; Wessman, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) can provide detailed, fine spatial resolution imagery for ecological uses not otherwise obtainable through standard methods. The use of UAS imagery for ecology is a rapidly -evolving field, where the study of forest landscape ecology can be augmented using UAS imagery to scale and validate biophysical data from field measurements to spaceborne observations. High resolution imagery provided by UAS (30 cm2 pixels) offers detailed canopy cover and forest structure data in a time efficient and inexpensive manner. Using a GoPro Hero2 (2 mm focal length) camera mounted in the nose cone of a Raven unmanned system, we collected aerial and thermal data monthly during the summer 2013, over two subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado. These forests are dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus ponderosae) and have experienced insect-driven (primarily mountain pine beetle; MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) mortality. Objectives of this study include observations of forest health variables such as canopy water content (CWC) from thermal imagery and leaf area index (LAI), biomass and forest productivity from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from UAS imagery. Observations were, validated with ground measurements. Images were processed using a combination of AgiSoft Photoscan professional software and ENVI remote imaging software. We utilized the software Leaf Area Index Calculator (LAIC) developed by Córcoles et al. (2013) for calculating LAI from digital images and modified to conform to leaf area of needle-leaf trees as in Chen and Cihlar (1996) . LAIC uses a K-means cluster analysis to decipher the RGB levels for each pixel and distinguish between green aboveground vegetation and other materials, and project leaf area per unit of ground surface area (i.e. half total needle surface area per unit area). Preliminary LAIC UAS data shows summer average LAI was 3.8 in the most dense forest stands and 2.95 in less dense

  8. Spatial pattern of a subalpine forest-alpine pasture ecotone (Las Cutas, Ordesa, Central Pyrenees)

    OpenAIRE

    Camarero, J. J.; Gutierrez, E.

    1999-01-01

    We describe the spatial pattern of a subalpine forest-alpine pasture ecotone in the Central Pyrenees, that includes altitudinal timberline and treeline, and it is dominated by Pinus uncinata Ram. A rectangular (30 x 140 m) plot was located crossing the ecotone with its longest side parallel to the slope. We measured for each P. uncinata individual inside the plot: location (coordinates x, y), and structure (e. g. height) and growth form variables (number and type —living or dead, vertical or ...

  9. Root hydraulic vulnerability regulation of whole-plant conductance along hillslope gradients within subalpine and montane forests

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    Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem-scale models often rely on root vulnerability or whole-plant conductance for simulating seasonal evapotranspiration declines via constraints of water uptake and vegetation mortality. Further, many of these ecosystem models rely on single, unvarying, hydraulic parameter estimates for modeling large areas. Ring-porous species have shown seasonal variability in root vulnerability (percent loss of conductivity; PLC) and whole-plant conductance (Kw) but simulations of coniferous forest typically rely on point measurements. This assumption for coniferous forest is not likely true because of seasonal variability caused by phenology and environmental stresses and the potential for cavitation fatigue is not considered. Moreover, many of these dynamics have only been considered for stems even though roots are often the most vulnerable segments of the pathway for conifers. We hypothesized that seasonally dynamic whole-plant conductance along hillslope gradients in coniferous forests are regulated by cavitation fatigue within the roots resulting in seasonal increases in vulnerability. To test the hypothesis, a subalpine mixed forest (3000 m.a.s.l) and montane forest (2550 m.a.s.l.) were monitored between 2015-2017 to quantify PLC and Kw along the hillslope gradients of 300 m and 50 m, respectively. Forest plots were instrumented with 35 Granier-type sapflow sensors. Seasonal sampling campaigns occurred to quantify PLC through centrifuge techniques and Kw through Darcy's law approximations with pre-dawn and diurnal leaf water potentials. Downslope roots exhibit a 33% decrease in maximal conductivity corresponding to the approximately 50% decrease in whole-plant conductance suggesting seasonal soil dry-down limitations within the downslope stands. Upslope stands had no to little change in root vulnerability or decrease in whole-plant conductance as soil water limitations occur immediately following snowmelt, thus limiting hydraulic conductance throughout the growing

  10. Long-term landscape changes in a subalpine spruce-fir forest in central Utah, USA

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    Jesse L. Morris1

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change. Understanding the relationship among climate, antecedent disturbances, and the legacy effects of settlement-era logging can help identify the patterns and processes that create landscapes susceptible to bark beetle epidemics. Methods: Our analysis uses data from lake sediment cores, stand inventories, and historical records. Sediment cores were dated with radiometric techniques (14C and 210Pb/137Cs and subsampled for pollen and charcoal to maximize the temporal resolution during the historical period (1800 CE to present and to provide environmental baseline data (last 10,500 years. Pollen data for spruce were calibrated to carbon biomass (C t/ha using standard allometric equations and a transfer function. Charcoal samples were analyzed with statistical models to facilitate peak detection and determine fire recurrence intervals. Results: The Wasatch Plateau has been dominated by Engelmann spruce forests for the last ~10,500 years, with subalpine fir becoming more prominent since 6000 years ago. This landscape has experienced a dynamic fire regime, where burning events are more frequent and of higher magnitude during the last 3000 years. Two important disturbances have impacted Engelmann spruce in the historical period: 1 high-grade logging during the late 19th century; and (2 a high severity spruce beetle outbreak in the late 20th century that killed >90 % of mature spruce (>10 cm dbh. Conclusions: Our study shows that spruce-dominated forests in this region are resilient to a range of climate and disturbance regimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that 19th century logging

  11. Effects of vegetation type on microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in subalpine mountain forest soils.

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    Ravindran, Anita; Yang, Shang-Shyng

    2015-08-01

    Microbial biomass plays an important role in nutrient transformation and conservation of forest and grassland ecosystems. The objective of this study was to determine the microbial biomass among three vegetation types in subalpine mountain forest soils of Taiwan. Tatachia is a typical high-altitude subalpine temperate forest ecosystem in Taiwan with an elevation of 1800-3952 m and consists of three vegetation types: spruce, hemlock, and grassland. Three plots were selected in each vegetation type. Soil samples were collected from the organic layer, topsoil, and subsoil. Microbial biomass carbon (Cmic) was determined by the chloroform fumigation-extraction method, and microbial biomass nitrogen (Nmic) was determined from the total nitrogen (Ntot) released during fumigation-extraction. Bacteria, actinomycetes, fungi, cellulolytic microbes, phosphate-solubilizing microbes, and nitrogen-fixing microbes were also counted. The Cmic and Nmic were highest in the surface soil and declined with the soil depth. These were also highest in spruce soils, followed by in hemlock soils, and were lowest in grassland soils. Cmic and Nmic had the highest values in the spring season and the lowest values in the winter season. Cmic and Nmic had significantly positive correlations with total organic carbon (Corg) and Ntot. Contributions of Cmic and Nmic, respectively, to Corg and Ntot indicated that the microbial biomass was immobilized more in spruce and hemlock soils than in grassland soils. Microbial populations of the tested vegetation types decreased with increasing soil depth. Cmic and Nmic were high in the organic layer and decreased with the depth of layers. These values were higher for spruce and hemlock soils than for grassland soils. Positive correlations were observed between Cmic and Nmic and between Corg and Ntot. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Virtual disjunct eddy covariance measurements of organic compound fluxes from a subalpine forest using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry

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    T. G. Karl

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A `virtual' disjunct eddy covariance (vDEC device was tested with field measurements of biogenic VOC fluxes at a subalpine forest site in the Rocky Mountains of the USA. A PTR-MS instrument was used as the VOC sensor. Daily peak emission fluxes of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO, methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde were around 1.5, 1, 0.8 and 0.4 mg m-2 h-1, respectively. High pass filtering due to long sampling lines was investigated in laboratory experiments, and suggested that VOC losses in PTFA lines are generally governed by diffusion laws. Memory effects and surface reactions did not seem to play a dominant role. Model estimates of MBO fluxes compared well with measured fluxes. The results also suggest that latent heat and sensible heat fluxes are reasonably well correlated with VOC fluxes and could be used to predict variations in VOC emissions. The release of MBO, methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde resulted in significant change of tropospheric oxidant levels and a 10--40% increase in ozone levels, as inferred from a photochemical box model. We conclude that vDEC with a PTR-MS instrument is a versatile tool for simultaneous field analysis of multiple VOC fluxes.

  13. Soil, plant, and transport influences on methane in a subalpine forest under high ultraviolet irradiance

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    D. Baer

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have demonstrated direct methane emission from plant foliage under aerobic conditions, particularly under high ultraviolet (UV irradiance. We examined the potential importance of this phenomenon in a high-elevation conifer forest using micrometeorological techniques. Vertical profiles of methane and carbon dioxide in forest air were monitored every 2 h for 6 weeks in summer 2007. Day to day variability in above-canopy CH4 was high, with observed values in the range 1790 to 1910 nmol mol−1. High CH4 was correlated with high carbon monoxide and related to wind direction, consistent with pollutant transport from an urban area by a well-studied mountain-plain wind system. Soils were moderately dry during the study. Vertical gradients of CH4 were small but detectable day and night, both near the ground and within the vegetation canopy. Gradients near the ground were consistent with the forest soil being a net CH4 sink. Using scalar similarity with CO2, the magnitude of the summer soil CH4 sink was estimated at ~1.7 mg CH4 m−2 h−1, which is similar to other temperate forest upland soils. The high-elevation forest was naturally exposed to high UV irradiance under clear sky conditions, with observed peak UVB irradiance >2 W m−2. Gradients and means of CO2 within the canopy under daytime conditions showed net uptake of CO2 due to photosynthetic drawdown as expected. No evidence was found for a significant foliar CH4 source in the vegetation canopy, even under high UV conditions. While the possibility of a weak foliar source cannot be excluded given the observed soil sink, overall this subalpine forest was a net sink for atmospheric methane during the growing season.

  14. Photosynthetic, morphological, and reproductive variations in Cypripedium tibeticum in relation to different light regimes in a subalpine forest.

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    Bao-Qiang Zheng

    Full Text Available Cypripedium tibeticum, a subalpine orchid species, inhabits various habitats of subalpine forests, mainly including the forest edge (FE, forest gap (FG, and understory (UST, which have significantly different light intensities (FE > FG > UST. However, the ecological and physiological influences caused by different light regimes in this species are still poorly understood. In the present study, photosynthetic, morphological, and reproductive characteristics were comprehensively studied in plants of C. tibeticum grown in three types of habitats. The photosynthetic capacities, such as the net photosynthetic rate, light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax, and dry mass per unit leaf area (LMA, were higher in FE and FG than in UST according to light availability. Compared with FG, the populations in FE and UST suffer from excessively strong and inadequate radiation, respectively, which was further corroborated by the low Fv/Fm in FE and high apparent quantum yield (AQY in FG. The leaves of the orchids had various proportions of constituents, such as the leaf area, thickness and (or epidermal hair, to reduce damage from high radiation (including ultraviolet-b radiation in FE and capture more light in FG and UST. Although the flower rate (FR was positively correlated to both Pmax and the daily mean PAR, fruit-set only occurred in the populations in FG. The failures in FE and UST might be ascribed to changes in the floral functional structure and low biomass accumulation, respectively. Moreover, analysis of the demographic statistics showed that FG was an advantageous habitat for the orchid. Thus, C. tibeticum reacted to photosynthetic and morphological changes to adapt to different subalpine forest habitats, and neither full (under FE nor low (UST illumination was favorable for population expansion. These findings could serve as a guide for the protection and reintroduction of C. tibeticum and emphasize the importance of specific habitats for Cypripedium

  15. Photosynthetic, morphological, and reproductive variations in Cypripedium tibeticum in relation to different light regimes in a subalpine forest.

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    Zheng, Bao-Qiang; Zou, Long-Hai; Li, Kui; Wan, Xiao; Wang, Yan

    2017-01-01

    Cypripedium tibeticum, a subalpine orchid species, inhabits various habitats of subalpine forests, mainly including the forest edge (FE), forest gap (FG), and understory (UST), which have significantly different light intensities (FE > FG > UST). However, the ecological and physiological influences caused by different light regimes in this species are still poorly understood. In the present study, photosynthetic, morphological, and reproductive characteristics were comprehensively studied in plants of C. tibeticum grown in three types of habitats. The photosynthetic capacities, such as the net photosynthetic rate, light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax), and dry mass per unit leaf area (LMA), were higher in FE and FG than in UST according to light availability. Compared with FG, the populations in FE and UST suffer from excessively strong and inadequate radiation, respectively, which was further corroborated by the low Fv/Fm in FE and high apparent quantum yield (AQY) in FG. The leaves of the orchids had various proportions of constituents, such as the leaf area, thickness and (or) epidermal hair, to reduce damage from high radiation (including ultraviolet-b radiation) in FE and capture more light in FG and UST. Although the flower rate (FR) was positively correlated to both Pmax and the daily mean PAR, fruit-set only occurred in the populations in FG. The failures in FE and UST might be ascribed to changes in the floral functional structure and low biomass accumulation, respectively. Moreover, analysis of the demographic statistics showed that FG was an advantageous habitat for the orchid. Thus, C. tibeticum reacted to photosynthetic and morphological changes to adapt to different subalpine forest habitats, and neither full (under FE) nor low (UST) illumination was favorable for population expansion. These findings could serve as a guide for the protection and reintroduction of C. tibeticum and emphasize the importance of specific habitats for Cypripedium spp.

  16. Total belowground carbon flux in subalpine forests is related to leaf area index, soil nitrogen, and tree height

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    Berryman, Erin Michele; Ryan, Michael G.; Bradford, John B.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Birdsey, R.

    2016-01-01

    In forests, total belowground carbon (C) flux (TBCF) is a large component of the C budget and represents a critical pathway for delivery of plant C to soil. Reducing uncertainty around regional estimates of forest C cycling may be aided by incorporating knowledge of controls over soil respiration and TBCF. Photosynthesis, and presumably TBCF, declines with advancing tree size and age, and photosynthesis increases yet C partitioning to TBCF decreases in response to high soil fertility. We hypothesized that these causal relationships would result in predictable patterns of TBCF, and partitioning of C to TBCF, with natural variability in leaf area index (LAI), soil nitrogen (N), and tree height in subalpine forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA. Using three consecutive years of soil respiration data collected from 22 0.38-ha locations across three 1-km2 subalpine forested landscapes, we tested three hypotheses: (1) annual soil respiration and TBCF will show a hump-shaped relationship with LAI; (2) variability in TBCF unexplained by LAI will be related to soil nitrogen (N); and (3) partitioning of C to TBCF (relative to woody growth) will decline with increasing soil N and tree height. We found partial support for Hypothesis 1 and full support for Hypotheses 2 and 3. TBCF, but not soil respiration, was explained by LAI and soil N patterns (r2 = 0.49), and the ratio of annual TBCF to TBCF plus aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) was related to soil N and tree height (r2 = 0.72). Thus, forest C partitioning to TBCF can vary even within the same forest type and region, and approaches that assume a constant fraction of TBCF relative to ANPP may be missing some of this variability. These relationships can aid with estimates of forest soil respiration and TBCF across landscapes, using spatially explicit forest data such as national inventories or remotely sensed data products.

  17. Long-term reactive nitrogen loading alters soil carbon and microbial community properties in a subalpine forest ecosystem

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    Boot, Claudia M.; Hall, Ed K.; Denef, Karolien; Baron, Jill S.

    2016-01-01

    Elevated nitrogen (N) deposition due to increased fossil fuel combustion and agricultural practices has altered global carbon (C) cycling. Additions of reactive N to N-limited environments are typically accompanied by increases in plant biomass. Soil C dynamics, however, have shown a range of different responses to the addition of reactive N that seem to be ecosystem dependent. We evaluated the effect of N amendments on biogeochemical characteristics and microbial responses of subalpine forest organic soils in order to develop a mechanistic understanding of how soils are affected by N amendments in subalpine ecosystems. We measured a suite of responses across three years (2011–2013) during two seasons (spring and fall). Following 17 years of N amendments, fertilized soils were more acidic (control mean 5.09, fertilized mean 4.68), and had lower %C (control mean 33.7% C, fertilized mean 29.8% C) and microbial biomass C by 22% relative to control plots. Shifts in biogeochemical properties in fertilized plots were associated with an altered microbial community driven by reduced arbuscular mycorrhizal (control mean 3.2 mol%, fertilized mean 2.5 mol%) and saprotrophic fungal groups (control mean 17.0 mol%, fertilized mean 15.2 mol%), as well as a decrease in N degrading microbial enzyme activity. Our results suggest that decreases in soil C in subalpine forests were in part driven by increased microbial degradation of soil organic matter and reduced inputs to soil organic matter in the form of microbial biomass.

  18. Water use patterns of three species in subalpine forest, Southwest China: the deuterium isotope approach

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    Qing Xu; Harbin Li; Jiquan Chen; Jiquan Cheng; Xiaoli Cheng; Shirong Liu; Shuqing An

    2011-01-01

    Determination of water sources of plant species in a community is critical for understanding the hydrological processes and their importance in ecosystem functions. Such partitioning of plant xylem water into specific sources (i.e. precipitation, groundwater) can be achieved by analyzing deuterium isotopic composition (δD) values for source waters. A subalpine dark...

  19. [Soil hydrolase characteristics in late soil-thawing period in subalpine/alpine forests of west Sichuan].

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    Tan, Bo; Wu, Fu-Zhong; Yang, Wan-Qin; Yu, Sheng; Yang, Yu-Lian; Wang, Ao

    2011-05-01

    Late soil-thawing period is a critical stage connecting winter and growth season. The significant temperature fluctuation at this stage might have strong effects on soil ecological processes. In order to understand the soil biochemical processes at this stage in the subalpine/alpine forests of west Sichuan, soil samples were collected from the representative forests including primary fir forest, fir and birch mixed forest, and secondary fir forest in March 5-April 25, 2009, with the activities of soil invertase, urease, and phosphatase (neutral, acid and alkaline phosphatases) measured. In soil frozen period, the activities of the three enzymes in test forests still kept relatively higher. With the increase of soil temperature, the activities of hydrolases at the early stage of soil-thawing decreased rapidly after a sharp increase, except for neutral phosphatease. Thereafter, there was an increase in the activities of urease and phosphatase. Relative to soil mineral layer, soil organic layer had higher hydrolase activity in late soil-thawing period, and showed more obvious responses to the variation of soil temperature.

  20. Ecohydrology of Lodgepole Pine Forests: Connecting Transpiration to Subsurface Flow Paths and Storage within a Subalpine Catchment

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    Byers, A.; Harpold, A. A.; Barnard, H. R.

    2011-12-01

    The hydrologic cycle plays a central role in regulating ecosystem structure and function. Linked studies of both subsurface and aboveground processes are needed to improve understanding of ecosystem changes that could result from climate change and disturbance in Colorado's subalpine forests. Here, we present data from plots dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) at the Niwot Ridge LTER site on the Colorado Front Range that improves the process-level understanding of the source and fate of water between subsurface storage and plant uptake. This study utilized event-based sampling during the 2011 growing season to investigate a paradox between water sources and rooting depth in lodgepole pine. Findings from Niwot Ridge have shown that lodgepole, typically believed to be a shallow-rooted species, appear to be strongly dependent on water from snowmelt for the entire growing season. These results suggested that conifer species were accessing water from deeper in the soil than summer monsoon rain typically penetrated. In our study, the relationship between precipitation event size and depth of infiltration on a seasonal and event basis, the effective rooting depth of lodgepole pine, and hysteretic responses of transpiration to soil moisture over a growing season were examined using measurements of tree physiological processes (sap flux and water stress) and hydrological parameters (precipitation, soil moisture) as well as stable water isotope composition of xylem water, mobile and immobile soil water, snow, precipitation, and stream water. Analysis of data shows that soil moisture in deep layers (60 and 70 cm) responds to large summer rain events of 0.7 mm and greater, and that lodgepole sap flux increases by 15-30% within 24 hours of monsoon events and decreases over 72 hours or until subsequent rain. Water isotope analysis will further elucidate the source and event response of these trees. This research helps us understand whether processes known to occur in

  1. Charcoal and Total Carbon in Soils from Foothills Shrublands to Subalpine Forests in the Colorado Front Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Sanford

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Temperate conifer forests in the Colorado Front Range are fire-adapted ecosystems where wildland fires leave a legacy in the form of char and charcoal. Long-term soil charcoal C (CC pools result from the combined effects of wildland fires, aboveground biomass characteristics and soil transfer mechanisms. We measured CC pools in surface soils (0–10 cm at mid-slope positions on east facing aspects in five continuous foothills shrubland and conifer forest types. We found a significant statistical effect of vegetation type on CC pools along this ecological gradient, but not a linear pattern increasing with elevation gain. There is a weak bimodal pattern of CC gain with elevation between foothills shrublands (1.2 mg CC ha−1 and the lower montane, ponderosa pine (1.5 mg CC ha−1 and Douglas-fir (1.5 mg CC ha−1 forest types prior to a mid-elevation decline in upper montane lodgepole pine forests (1.2 mg CC ha−1 before increasing again in the spruce/subalpine fir forests (1.5 mg CC ha−1. We propose that CC forms and accumulates via unique ecological conditions such as fire regime. The range of soil CC amounts and ratios of CC to total SOC are comparable to but lower than other regional estimates.

  2. [Effects of snow pack on soil nitrogen transformation enzyme activities in a subalpine Abies faxioniana forest of western Sichuan, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Li; Xu, Zhen-Feng; Wu, Fu-Zhong; Yang, Wan-Qin; Yin, Rui; Li, Zhi-Ping; Gou, Xiao-Lin; Tang, Shi-Shan

    2014-05-01

    This study characterized the dynamics of the activities of urease, nitrate reductase and nitrite reductase in both soil organic layer and mineral soil layer under three depths of snow pack (deep snowpack, moderate snowpack and shallow snowpack) over the three critical periods (snow formed period, snow stable period, and snow melt period) in the subalpine Abies faxoniana forest of western Sichuan in the winter of 2012 and 2013. Throughout the winter, soil temperature under deep snowpack increased by 46.2% and 26.2%, respectively in comparison with moderate snowpack and shallow snowpack. In general, the three nitrogen-related soil enzyme activities under shallow snowpack were 0.8 to 3.9 times of those under deep snowpack during the winter. In the beginning and thawing periods of seasonal snow pack, shallow snowpack significantly increased the activities of urease, nitrate and nitrite reductase enzyme in both soil organic layer and mineral soil layer. Although the activities of the studied enzymes in soil organic layer and mineral soil layer were observed to be higher than those under deep- and moderate snowpacks in deep winter, no significant difference was found under the three snow packs. Meanwhile, the effects of snowpack on the activities of the measured enzymes were related with season, soil layer and enzyme type. Significant variations of the activities of nitrogen-related enzymes were found in three critical periods over the winter, and the three measured soil enzymes were significantly higher in organic layer than in mineral layer. In addition, the activities of the three measured soil enzymes were closely related with temperature and moisture in soils. In conclusion, the decrease of snow pack induced by winter warming might increase the activities of soil enzymes related with nitrogen transformation and further stimulate the process of wintertime nitrogen transformation in soils of the subalpine forest.

  3. Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, Erin Michele; Barnard, H.R.; Adams, H.R.; Burns, M.A.; Gallo, E.; Brooks, P.D.

    2015-01-01

    Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. We quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important for dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.

  4. Tree age, disturbance history, and carbon stocks and fluxes in subalpine Rocky Mountain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Bradford; R.A. Birdsey; L.A. Joyce; M.G. Ryan

    2008-01-01

    Forest carbon stocks and fluxes vary with forest age, and relationships with forest age are often used to estimate fluxes for regional or national carbon inventories. Two methods are commonly used to estimate forest age: observed tree age or time since a known disturbance. To clarify the relationships between tree age, time since disturbance and forest carbon storage...

  5. Simulating Canopy-Level Solar Induced Fluorescence with CLM-SIF 4.5 at a Sub-Alpine Conifer Forest in the Colorado Rockies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raczka, B. M.; Bowling, D. R.; Lin, J. C.; Lee, J. E.; Yang, X.; Duarte, H.; Zuromski, L.

    2017-12-01

    Forests of the Western United States are prone to drought, temperature extremes, forest fires and insect infestation. These disturbance render carbon stocks and land-atmosphere carbon exchanges highly variable and vulnerable to change. Regional estimates of carbon exchange from terrestrial ecosystem models are challenged, in part, by a lack of net ecosystem exchange observations (e.g. flux towers) due to the complex mountainous terrain. Alternatively, carbon estimates based on light use efficiency models that depend upon remotely-sensed greenness indices are challenged due to a weak relationship with GPP during the winter season. Recent advances in the retrieval of remotely sensed solar induced fluorescence (SIF) have demonstrated a strong seasonal relationship between GPP and SIF for deciduous, grass and, to a lesser extent, conifer species. This provides an important opportunity to use remotely-sensed SIF to calibrate terrestrial ecosystem models providing a more accurate regional representation of biomass and carbon exchange across mountainous terrain. Here we incorporate both leaf-level fluorescence and leaf-to-canopy radiative transfer represented by the SCOPE model into CLM 4.5 (CLM-SIF). We simulate canopy level fluorescence at a sub-alpine forest site (Niwot Ridge, Colorado) and test whether these simulations reproduce remotely-sensed SIF from a satellite (GOME2). We found that the average peak SIF during the growing season (yrs 2007-2013) was similar between the model and satellite observations (within 15%); however, simulated SIF during the winter season was significantly greater than the satellite observations (5x higher). This implies that the fluorescence yield is overestimated by the model during the winter season. It is important that the modeled representation of seasonal fluorescence yield is improved to provide an accurate seasonal representation of SIF across the Western United States.

  6. Modeling a two-layer flow system at the subarctic, subalpine tree line during snowmelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leenders, Erica E.; Woo, Ming-Ko

    2002-10-01

    In the subarctic it is common to encounter a two-layer flow system consisting of a porous organic cover overlying frozen or unfrozen mineral soils with much lower hydraulic conductivities. The "simple lumped reservoir parametric," or "semidistributed land-use-based runoff processes" (SLURP), model was adapted to simulate runoff generated by such a flow system from an upland shrub land to an open woodland downslope. A subalpine site in Wolf Creek, Yukon, Canada, was subdivided into two aggregated simulation areas (ASA), each being a unit characterized by a set of parameters. The model computes the vertical water balance and flow generation from several storages, and then routes the water out of the ASA. When applied to the 1999 snowmelt season, the model simulated the very low lateral flow and a large increase in storage in the mineral soil, as was observed in the field. The model was used to assess the sensitivity of the two-layer flow system under a range of temperature, snow cover, and frost conditions. Results show that within the range of possible climatic conditions, the hydrologic system is unlikely to yield significant runoff across the subalpine tree line, but if ground ice is abundant in the soil pores, percolation will be limited and fast flow from the surface layer is enhanced.

  7. Ecological Factors Influencing Norway Spruce Regeneration on Nurse Logs in a Subalpine Virgin Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Stroheker

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Regeneration of Picea abies in high-elevation mountain forests often depends on the presence of coarse woody debris (CWD, as logs provide sites with more favorable conditions for spruce regeneration compared to the forest floor. However, there is little quantitative knowledge on the factors that are conducive to or hindering spruce establishment on CWD. We examined spruce regeneration on CWD by sampling 303 plots (50 cm × 50 cm each on 56 downed logs in a virgin forest in the Swiss Alps. Variables describing microsite conditions were measured, and fungi were isolated from wood samples. To investigate the relationship between the ecological factors and establishment success, two models were fitted with seedling and sapling density as response variables, respectively. Besides log diameter, the models identified different ecological factors as significant for seedling and sapling establishment, i.e., regeneration depends on different factors in different development stages. Seedling density depended on the type of rot, log inclination, and decay stage. Sapling density depended mainly on light availability, cover by bark and moss, the time of tree fall, and the distance between the log surface and the forest floor. A total of 22 polypore fungi were isolated from the wood samples, four of them being threatened species. White- and brown-rot fungi were found in all decay stages. The visual assessment of the type of rot in the field corresponded in only 15% of cases to the type of rot caused by the isolated fungi; hence caution is needed when making field assessments of rot types.

  8. Mercury bioaccumulation in fishes from subalpine lakes of the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest, northeastern Oregon and western Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herring, Garth; Johnson, Branden L.; Graw, Rick

    2013-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a globally distributed pollutant that poses considerable risks to human and wildlife health. Over the past 150 years since the advent of the industrial revolution, approximately 80 percent of global emissions have come from anthropogenic sources, largely fossil fuel combustion. As a result, atmospheric deposition of Hg has increased by up to 4-fold above pre-industrial times. Because of their isolation, remote high-elevation lakes represent unique environments for evaluating the bioaccumulation of atmospherically deposited Hg through freshwater food webs, as well as for evaluating the relative importance of Hg loading versus landscape influences on Hg bioaccumulation. The increase in Hg deposition to these systems over the past century, coupled with their limited exposure to direct anthropogenic disturbance make them useful indicators for estimating how changes in Hg emissions may propagate to changes in Hg bioaccumulation and ecological risk. In this study, we evaluated Hg concentrations in fishes of high-elevation, sub-alpine lakes in the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest in northeastern Oregon and western Idaho. Our goals were to (1) assess the magnitude of Hg contamination in small-catchment lakes to evaluate the risk of atmospheric Hg to human and wildlife health, (2) quantify the spatial variability in fish Hg concentrations, and (3) determine the ecological, limnological, and landscape factors that are best correlated with fish total mercury (THg) concentrations in these systems. Across the 28 study lakes, mean THg concentrations of resident salmonid fishes varied as much as 18-fold among lakes. Importantly, our top statistical model explained 87 percent of the variability in fish THg concentrations among lakes with four key landscape and limnological variables— catchment conifer density (basal area of conifers within a lake’s catchment), lake surface area, aqueous dissolved sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon. The basal area of conifers

  9. Elemental cycling response of an Adirondack subalpine spruce-fir forest to atmospheric and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Friedland; Eric K. Miller

    1996-01-01

    Patterns and trends in forest elemental cycling can become more apparent in the presence of atmospheric perturbations. High-elevation forests of the northeastern United States have received large amounts of atmospheric deposition of pollutants, which have altered natural elemental cycling and retention rates in a variety of ways. This study examined atmospheric...

  10. [Contribution of soil fauna to the mass loss of Betula albosinensis leaf litter at early decomposition stage of subalpine forest litter in western Sichuan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lei; Wu, Fu-Zhong; Yang, Wan-Qin; Tan, Bo

    2012-02-01

    In order to quantify the contribution of soil fauna to the decomposition of birch (Betula albosinensis) leaf litter in subalpine forests in western Sichuan of Southwest China during freeze-thaw season, a field experiment with different mesh sizes (0.02, 0.125, 1 and 3 mm) of litterbags was conducted in a representative birch-fir (Abies faxoniana) forest to investigate the mass loss rate of the birch leaf litter from 26 October, 2010 to 18 April, 2011, and the contributions of micro-, meso- and macro-fauna to the decomposition of the leaf litter. Over the freeze-thaw season, 11.8%, 13.2%, 15.4% and 19.5% of the mass loss were detected in the litterbags with 0.02, 0. 125, 1 and 3 mm mesh sizes, respectively. The total contribution of soil fauna to the litter decomposition accounted for 39.5% of the mass loss, and the taxa and individual relative density of the soil fauna in the litterbags had the similar variation trend with that of the mass loss rate. The contribution rate of soil fauna to the leaf litter mass loss showed the order of micro- soil fauna played an important role in the litter decomposition in subalpine forests of western Sichuan during freeze-thaw season.

  11. Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrinkevich, Kathryn H; Progar, Robert A; Shaw, David C

    2016-01-01

    The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these

  12. Effect of clear cutting on nutrient fluxes in a subalpine forest at Fraser, Colorado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Reuss

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Nutrient fluxes were investigated on a forested and a clearcut plot in a mixed conifer high elevation (2900 m forest at the Fraser Experimental Forest in Fraser, Colorado, USA. Plots were located on a coarse loamy mixed Dystric Cryochrept with relatively high base saturation (30-90% and underlain by an impermeable clay subsoil. Following harvest in late 1984, annual mean NO3 concentrations of 195 to 198 μmol l-1 were observed from 1988 through 1990 and concentrations were still above reference levels in 1993. Total nitrogen loss attributable to leaching following harvest was estimated at 48kg ha-1 over 8 years. Over this same period, atmospheric nitrogen inputs exceeded annual outflow of NH4 plus NO3 from the control plots by approximately 11 kg N ha-1. A slight enrichment Of SO4 and Cl was observed from the harvested plot in 1986 but concentrations later fell below control plot levels, apparently due to dilution by the increased discharge from the harvested plot which was three to four times that from the control plot. Elevated Ca, Mg, and Na concentrations followed a similar pattern to NO3 due to exchange reactions, while a depression in alkalinity of about one-third the amount of NO3 found was also observed. Enrichment of K occurred primarily in water collected at less than 1 m depth. Increases in base cation loss due to leaching after harvest were about twice the amount that can be accounted for by the increased flux of NO3, SO4, and Cl anions. The excess reflects the increased water flux and consequent leaching of base cations in association with HCO3 and organic anions.

  13. Effect of subalpine canopy removal on snowpack, soil solution, and nutrient export, Fraser Experimental Forest, CO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stottlemyer, R.; Troendle, C.A.

    1999-01-01

    Research on the effects of vegetation manipulation on snowpack, soil water, and streamwater chemistry and flux has been underway at the Fraser Experimental Forest (FEF), CO, since 1982. Greater than 95% of FEF snowmelt passes through watersheds as subsurface flow where soil processes significantly alter meltwater chemistry. To better understand the mechanisms accounting for annual variation in watershed streamwater ion concentration and flux with snowmelt, we studied subsurface water flow, its ion concentration, and flux in conterminous forested and clear cut plots. Repetitive patterns in subsurface flow and chemistry were apparent. Control plot subsurface flow chemistry had the highest ion concentrations in late winter and fall. When shallow subsurface flow occurred, its Ca2+, SO42-, and HCO3- concentrations were lower and K+ higher than deep flow. The percentage of Ca2+, NO3-, SO42-, and HCO3- flux in shallow depths was less and K+ slightly greater than the percentage of total flow. Canopy removal increased precipitation reaching the forest floor by about 40%, increased peak snowpack water equivalent (SWE) > 35%, increased the average snowpack Ca2+, NO3-, and NH4+ content, reduced the snowpack K+ content, and increased the runoff four-fold. Clear cutting doubled the percentage of subsurface flow at shallow depths, and increased K+ concentration in shallow subsurface flow and NO3- concentrations in both shallow and deep flow. The percentage change in total Ca2+, SO42-, and HCO3- flux in shallow depths was less than the change in water flux, while that of K+ and NO3- flux was greater. Relative to the control, in the clear cut the percentage of total Ca2+ flux at shallow depths increased from 5 to 12%, SO42- 5.4 to 12%, HCO3- from 5.6 to 8.7%, K+ from 6 to 35%, and NO3- from 2.7 to 17%. The increases in Ca2+ and SO42- flux were proportional to the increase in water flux, the flux of HCO3- increased proportionally less than water flux, and NO3- and K+ were

  14. Pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks on fuels in subalpine forests of Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T

    2018-03-01

    Over the past 30 years, forest disturbances have increased in size, intensity, and frequency globally, and are predicted to continue increasing due to climate change, potentially relaxing the constraints of vegetation properties on disturbance regimes. However, the consequences of the potentially declining importance of vegetation in determining future disturbance regimes are not well understood. Historically, bark beetles preferentially attack older trees and stands in later stages of development. However, as climate warming intensifies outbreaks by promoting growth of beetle populations and compromising tree defenses, smaller diameter trees and stands in early stages of development now are being affected by outbreaks. To date, no study has considered how stand age and other pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of outbreaks on surface and aerial fuel arrangements. We collected fuels data across a chronosequence of post-outbreak sites affected by spruce beetle (SB) between the 1940s and the 2010s, stratified by young (130 yr) post-fire stands. Canopy and surface fuel loads were calculated for each tree and stand, and available crown fuel load, crown bulk density, and canopy bulk densities were estimated. Canopy bulk density and density of live canopy individuals were reduced in all stands affected by SB, though foliage loss was proportionally greater in old stands as compared to young stands. Fine surface fuel loads in young stands were three times greater shortly (fuels decreased to below endemic (i.e., non-outbreak) levels. In both young and old stands, the net effect of SB outbreaks during the 20th and 21st centuries reduced total canopy fuels and increased stand-scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy fuels following outbreak. Importantly, the decrease in canopy fuels following outbreaks was greater in young post-fire stands than in older stands, suggesting that SB outbreaks may more substantially reduce risk of active crown fire when they affect

  15. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonnell, T.C.; Belyazid, S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Sverdrup, H.; Bowman, W.D.; Porter, E.M.

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  16. Effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and temperature on photosynthesis and leaf traits of an understory dwarf bamboo in subalpine forest zone, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yongping Li; Yuanbin Zhang; Xiaolu Zhang; Chunyang Li [Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu (China); Korpelainenc, H. [Univ. of Helsinki. Dept. of Agricultural Sciences, Helsinki (Finland); Berningerd, F. [Univ. of Helsinki. Dept. of Forest Sciences, Helsinki (Finland)

    2013-06-01

    The dwarf bamboo (Fargesia rufa Yi), growing understory in subalpine dark coniferous forest, is one of the main foods for giant panda, and it influences the regeneration of subalpine coniferous forests in southwestern China. To investigate the effects of elevated CO{sub 2}, temperature and their combination, the dwarf bamboo plantlets were exposed to two CO{sub 2} regimes (ambient and double ambient CO{sub 2} concentration) and two temperatures (ambient and +2.2 deg. C) in growth chambers. Gas exchange, leaf traits and carbohydrates concentration were measured after the 150-day experiment. Elevated CO{sub 2} significantly increased the net photosynthetic rate (A{sub net}), intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUE{sub i}) and carbon isotope composition ({delta}{sup 13}C) and decreased stomatal conductance (g{sub s}) and total chlorophyll concentration based on mass (Chl{sub m}) and area (Chl{sub a}). On the other hand, elevated CO{sub 2} decreased specific leaf area (SLA), which was increased by elevated temperature. Elevated CO{sub 2} also increased foliar carbon concentration based on mass (C{sub m}) and area (C{sub a}), nitrogen concentration based on area (N{sub a}), carbohydrates concentration (i.e. sucrose, sugar, starch and non-structural carbohydrates) and the slope of the A{sub net}-N{sub a} relationship. However, elevated temperature decreased C{sub m}, C{sub a} and N{sub a}. The combination of elevated CO{sub 2} and temperature hardly affected SLA, C{sub m}, C{sub a}, N{sub m}, N{sub a}, Chl{sub m} and Chl{sub a}. Variables A{sub net} and N{sub a} had positive linear relationships in all treatments. Our results showed that photosynthetic acclimation did not occur in dwarf bamboo at elevated CO{sub 2} and it could adjust physiology and morphology to enable the capture of more light, to increase WUE and improve nutritional conditions. (Author)

  17. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  18. Decay of subalpine fir in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Hinds; Frank G. Hawksworth; Ross W. Davidson

    1960-01-01

    Spruce-fir is one of the major forest types in the central Rocky Mountains. Engelmann spruce, Picea engelmanni Parry, is usually the predominant species with subalpine fir, Abies lasiocarpa (Hook. ) Nutt., making up one-fourth or less of the total volume. Lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud., is frequently present at the lower elevations of the spruce-fir...

  19. [Effects of elevated temperature on soil organic carbon and soil respiration under subalpine coniferous forest in western Sichuan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xin-li; Lin, Bo; Liu, Qing

    2008-08-01

    To investigate the effects of elevated temperature on the soil organic carbon content, soil respiration rate, and soil enzyme activities in subalpine Picea asperata plantations in western Sichuan Province of China, a simulation study was conducted in situ with open-top chambers from November 2005 to July 2007. The results showed that under elevated temperature, the mean air temperature and soil temperature were 0.42 degrees C and 0.25 degrees C higher than the control, respectively. In the first and the second year, the increased temperature had somewhat decreasing effects on the soil organic carbon and the C/N ratio at the soil depths of 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm. In the first year the soil organic carbon and the C/N ratio in 0-10 cm soil layer decreased by 8.69%, and 8.52%, respectively; but in the second year, the decrements were lesser. Soil respiration rate was significantly enhanced in the first year of warming, but had no significant difference with the control in the second year. In the first year of warming, the activities of soil invertase, polyphenol oxidase, catalase, protease, and urease increased, and the invertase and polyphenol oxidase activities in 0-10 cm soil layer were significantly higher than the control. In the second year of warming, the activities of invertase, protease and urease still had an increase, but those of catalase and polyphenol oxidase had a downtrend, compared with the control.

  20. The Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest US-NR1 AmeriFlux site - Part 1: Data acquisition and site record-keeping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Sean P.; Maclean, Gordon D.; Blanken, Peter D.; Oncley, Steven P.; Semmer, Steven R.; Monson, Russell K.

    2016-09-01

    The Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1) has been measuring eddy-covariance ecosystem fluxes of carbon dioxide, heat, and water vapor since 1 November 1998. Throughout this 17-year period there have been changes to the instrumentation and improvements to the data acquisition system. Here, in Part 1 of this three-part series of papers, we describe the hardware and software used for data-collection and metadata documentation. We made changes to the data acquisition system that aimed to reduce the system complexity, increase redundancy, and be as independent as possible from any network outages. Changes to facilitate these improvements were (1) switching to a PC/104-based computer running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) In-Situ Data Acquisition Software (NIDAS) that saves the high-frequency data locally and over the network, and (2) time-tagging individual 10 Hz serial data samples using network time protocol (NTP) coupled to a GPS-based clock, providing a network-independent, accurate time base. Since making these improvements almost 2 years ago, the successful capture of high-rate data has been better than 99.98 %. We also provide philosophical concepts that shaped our design of the data system and are applicable to many different types of environmental data collection.

  1. Root-associated fungal communities in three Pyroleae species and their mycobiont sharing with surrounding trees in subalpine coniferous forests on Mount Fuji, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Shuzheng; Nakano, Takashi; Hattori, Masahira; Nara, Kazuhide

    2017-11-01

    Pyroleae species are perennial understory shrubs, many of which are partial mycoheterotrophs. Most fungi colonizing Pyroleae roots are ectomycorrhizal (ECM) and share common mycobionts with their Pyroleae hosts. However, such mycobiont sharing has neither been examined in depth before nor has the interspecific variation in sharing among Pyroleae species. Here, we examined root-associated fungal communities in three co-existing Pyroleae species, including Pyrola alpina, Pyrola incarnata, and Orthilia secunda, with reference to co-existing ECM fungi on the surrounding trees in the same soil blocks in subalpine coniferous forests. We identified 42, 75, and 18 fungal molecular operational taxonomic units in P. alpina, P. incarnata, and O. secunda roots, respectively. Mycobiont sharing with surrounding trees, which was defined as the occurrence of the same mycobiont between Pyroleae and surrounding trees in each soil block, was most frequent among P. incarnata (31 of 44 plants). In P. alpina, sharing was confirmed in 12 of 37 plants, and the fungal community was similar to that of P. incarnata. Mycobiont sharing was least common in O. secunda, found in only 5 of 32 plants. Root-associated fungi of O. secunda were dominated by Wilcoxina species, which were absent from the surrounding ECM roots in the same soil blocks. These results indicate that mycobiont sharing with surrounding trees does not equally occur among Pyroleae plants, some of which may develop independent mycorrhizal associations with ECM fungi, as suggested in O. secunda at our research sites.

  2. The contribution of red wood ants to soil C and N pools and CO2 emissions in subalpine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anita C. Risch; Martin F. Jurgensen; Martin Schutz; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese

    2005-01-01

    Little information is available regarding red wood ant (RWA; Formica rufa group) impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in forest ecosystems. We found that RWA mound density (number per ha) was linked to forest tree species composition, slope aspect, and canopy closure. The size of RWA mounds was positively correlated with successional...

  3. Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrus, Robert A; Harvey, Brian J; Rodman, Kyle C; Hart, Sarah J; Veblen, Thomas T

    2018-03-01

    In the absence of broad-scale disturbance, many temperate coniferous forests experience successful seedling establishment only when abundant seed production coincides with favorable climate. Identifying the frequency of past establishment events and the climate conditions favorable for seedling establishment is essential to understanding how climate warming could affect the frequency of future tree establishment events and therefore future forest composition or even persistence of a forest cover. In the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, research on the sensitivity of establishment of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)-two widely distributed, co-occurring conifers in North America-to climate variability has focused on the alpine treeline ecotone, leaving uncertainty about the sensitivity of these species across much of their elevation distribution. We compared annual germination dates for >450 Engelmann spruce and >500 subalpine fir seedlings collected across a complex topographic-moisture gradient to climate variability in the Colorado Front Range. We found that Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir established episodically with strong synchrony in establishment events across the study area. Broad-scale establishment events occurred in years of high soil moisture availability, which were characterized by above-average snowpack and/or cool and wet summer climatic conditions. In the recent half of the study period (1975-2010), a decrease in the number of fir and spruce establishment events across their distribution coincided with declining snowpack and a multi-decadal trend of rising summer temperature and increasing moisture deficits. Counter to expected and observed increases in tree establishment with climate warming in maritime subalpine forests, our results show that recruitment declines will likely occur across the core of moisture-limited subalpine tree ranges as warming drives increased moisture deficits. © 2018 by the

  4. Evaluating the utility and seasonality of NDVI values for assessing post-disturbance recovery in a subalpine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian

    2012-06-01

    Forest disturbances around the world have the potential to alter forest type and cover, with impacts on diversity, carbon storage, and landscape composition. These disturbances, especially fire, are common and often large, making ground investigation of forest recovery difficult. Remote sensing offers a means to monitor forest recovery in real time, over the entire landscape. Typically, recovery monitoring via remote sensing consists of measuring vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI) or index-derived metrics, with the assumption that recovery in NDVI (for example) is a meaningful measure of ecosystem recovery. This study tests that assumption using MODIS 16-day imagery from 2000 to 2010 in the area of the Colorado's Routt National Forest Hinman burn (2002) and seedling density counts taken in the same area. Results indicate that NDVI is rarely correlated with forest recovery, and is dominated by annual and perennial forb cover, although topography complicates analysis. Utility of NDVI as a means to delineate areas of recovery or non-recovery are in doubt, as bootstrapped analysis indicates distinguishing power only slightly better than random. NDVI in revegetation analyses should carefully consider the ecology and seasonal patterns of the system in question.

  5. Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2010-01-01

    The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

  6. Fire, fuel composition and resilience threshold in subalpine ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Blarquez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Forecasting the effects of global changes on high altitude ecosystems requires an understanding of the long-term relationships between biota and forcing factors to identify resilience thresholds. Fire is a crucial forcing factor: both fuel build-up from land-abandonment in European mountains, and more droughts linked to global warming are likely to increase fire risks. METHODS: To assess the vegetation response to fire on a millennium time-scale, we analyzed evidence of stand-to-local vegetation dynamics derived from sedimentary plant macroremains from two subalpine lakes. Paleobotanical reconstructions at high temporal resolution, together with a fire frequency reconstruction inferred from sedimentary charcoal, were analyzed by Superposed Epoch Analysis to model plant behavior before, during and after fire events. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that fuel build-up from arolla pine (Pinus cembra always precedes fires, which is immediately followed by a rapid increase of birch (Betula sp., then by ericaceous species after 25-75 years, and by herbs after 50-100 years. European larch (Larix decidua, which is the natural co-dominant species of subalpine forests with Pinus cembra, is not sensitive to fire, while the abundance of Pinus cembra is altered within a 150-year period after fires. A long-term trend in vegetation dynamics is apparent, wherein species that abound later in succession are the functional drivers, loading the environment with fuel for fires. This system can only be functional if fires are mainly driven by external factors (e.g. climate, with the mean interval between fires being longer than the minimum time required to reach the late successional stage, here 150 years. CONCLUSION: Current global warming conditions which increase drought occurrences, combined with the abandonment of land in European mountain areas, creates ideal ecological conditions for the ignition and the spread of fire. A fire return interval of less

  7. Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian V. Smithers; Malcolm P. North; Constance I. Millar; Andrew M. Latimer

    2017-01-01

    In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will...

  8. Ecological transition in Arizona's subalpine and montane grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael R. White

    2000-01-01

    Important components of Southwest forest ecosystem are subalpine and montane grassland communities, Grassland communities provide habitat diversity for wildlife, forage for domestic livestock and wildlife, and contribute to the visual quality of an area. The objectives of this research were to determine if: 1) vegetation attributes and soil-surface cover variables of...

  9. Comparison of remote sensing and plant trait-based modelling to predict ecosystem services in subalpine grasslands

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Homolová, Lucie; Schaepman, M. E.; Lamarque, L.; Clevers, J.G.P.W.; de Bello, Francesco; Thuiller, W.; Lavorel, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 8 (2014), č. článku 100. ISSN 2150-8925 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:67985939 Keywords : land-use change * leaf chlorophyll content * imaging spectroscopy * water-content * aviris data * spectral reflectance * hyperspectral data * species richness * area index * vegetation * aisa * biomass * ecosystem properties * ecosystem services * linear regression * remote sensing * spatial heterogeneity * subalpine grasslands Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour; EF - Botanics (BU-J) OBOR OECD: Remote sensing; Plant sciences, botany (BU-J) Impact factor: 2.255, year: 2014

  10. Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithers, Brian V; North, Malcolm P; Millar, Constance I; Latimer, Andrew M

    2018-02-01

    In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin subalpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine-dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above-treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Although limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully "leap-frogging" over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early-stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal

  11. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  12. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  13. Time since death and decay rate constants of Norway spruce and European larch deadwood in subalpine forests determined using dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrillo, M.; Cherubini, P.; Fravolini, G.; Ascher, J.; Schärer, M.; Synal, H.-A.; Bertoldi, D.; Camin, F.; Larcher, R.; Egli, M.

    2015-09-01

    Due to the large size and highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of deadwood, the time scales involved in the coarse woody debris (CWD) decay of Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Larix decidua Mill. in Alpine forests have been poorly investigated and are largely unknown. We investigated the CWD decay dynamics in an Alpine valley in Italy using the five-decay class system commonly employed for forest surveys, based on a macromorphological and visual assessment. For the decay classes 1 to 3, most of the dendrochronological samples were cross-dated to assess the time that had elapsed since tree death, but for decay classes 4 and 5 (poorly preserved tree rings) and some others not having enough tree rings, radiocarbon dating was used. In addition, density, cellulose and lignin data were measured for the dated CWD. The decay rate constants for spruce and larch were estimated on the basis of the density loss using a single negative exponential model. In the decay classes 1 to 3, the ages of the CWD were similar varying between 1 and 54 years for spruce and 3 and 40 years for larch with no significant differences between the classes; classes 1-3 are therefore not indicative for deadwood age. We found, however, distinct tree species-specific differences in decay classes 4 and 5, with larch CWD reaching an average age of 210 years in class 5 and spruce only 77 years. The mean CWD rate constants were 0.012 to 0.018 yr-1 for spruce and 0.005 to 0.012 yr-1 for larch. Cellulose and lignin time trends half-lives (using a multiple-exponential model) could be derived on the basis of the ages of the CWD. The half-lives for cellulose were 21 yr for spruce and 50 yr for larch. The half-life of lignin is considerably higher and may be more than 100 years in larch CWD.

  14. Time since death and decay rate constants of Norway spruce and European larch deadwood in subalpine forests determined using dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrillo, Marta; Cherubini, Paolo; Fravolini, Giulia; Marchetti, Marco; Ascher-Jenull, Judith; Schärer, Michael; Synal, Hans-Arno; Bertoldi, Daniela; Camin, Federica; Larcher, Roberto; Egli, Markus

    2016-03-01

    Due to the large size (e.g. sections of tree trunks) and highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of deadwood, the timescales involved in the coarse woody debris (CWD) decay of Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Larix decidua Mill. in Alpine forests are largely unknown. We investigated the CWD decay dynamics in an Alpine valley in Italy using the chronosequence approach and the five-decay class system that is based on a macromorphological assessment. For the decay classes 1-3, most of the dendrochronological samples were cross-dated to assess the time that had elapsed since tree death, but for decay classes 4 and 5 (poorly preserved tree rings) radiocarbon dating was used. In addition, density, cellulose, and lignin data were measured for the dated CWD. The decay rate constants for spruce and larch were estimated on the basis of the density loss using a single negative exponential model, a regression approach, and the stage-based matrix model. In the decay classes 1-3, the ages of the CWD were similar and varied between 1 and 54 years for spruce and 3 and 40 years for larch, with no significant differences between the classes; classes 1-3 are therefore not indicative of deadwood age. This seems to be due to a time lag between the death of a standing tree and its contact with the soil. We found distinct tree-species-specific differences in decay classes 4 and 5, with larch CWD reaching an average age of 210 years in class 5 and spruce only 77 years. The mean CWD rate constants were estimated to be in the range 0.018 to 0.022 y-1 for spruce and to about 0.012 y-1 for larch. Snapshot sampling (chronosequences) may overestimate the age and mean residence time of CWD. No sampling bias was, however, detectable using the stage-based matrix model. Cellulose and lignin time trends could be derived on the basis of the ages of the CWD. The half-lives for cellulose were 21 years for spruce and 50 years for larch. The half-life of lignin is considerably higher and may be more than

  15. Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood (models)

    OpenAIRE

    Rosa, Rudolf; Žabokrtský, Zdeněk; Zeman, Daniel; Mareček, David

    2017-01-01

    Trained models for UDPipe used to produce our final submission to VarDial 2017 shared task (https://bitbucket.org/hy-crossNLP/vardial2017) and described in a paper by the same authors titled Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood.

  16. Modelling mixed forest growth : a review of models for forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Porte, A.; Bartelink, H.H.

    2002-01-01

    Most forests today are multi-specific and heterogeneous forests (`mixed forests'). However, forest modelling has been focusing on mono-specific stands for a long time, only recently have models been developed for mixed forests. Previous reviews of mixed forest modelling were restricted to certain

  17. Forest-management modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Twery; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2013-01-01

    Forests are complex and dynamic ecosystems comprising individual trees that can vary in both size and species. In comparison to other organisms, trees are relatively long lived (40-2000 years), quite plastic in terms of their morphology and ecological niche, and adapted to a wide variety of habitats, which can make predicting their behaviour exceedingly difficult....

  18. Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Peterson; Becky K. Kerns; Erich Kyle Dodson

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to review scientifi c knowledge and model projections on vegetation vulnerability to climatic and other environmental changes in the Pacifi c Northwest, with emphasis on fi ve major biome types: subalpine forests and alpine meadows, maritime coniferous forests, dry coniferous forests, savannas and woodlands (oak and juniper), and interior...

  19. Drivers of variability in water use of two co-occurring species in a subalpine forest in Jiuzhaigou Valley, Southwest of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, C.; Zhao, W.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Qiu, G. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Co-occur species with different sensitivity to soil water may be particularly useful in evaluating water use by different forest stands as well as the response of species distribution, forest structure and stand composition to soil water availability in water-limited area. To clarify the species-specific water use strategy and provide insights into the possible succession trend, variations in sap flow and environmental conditions were investigated for two co-occur species (Betula albo-sinensis and Pinus tabulaeformis) in a mixed forest in Jiuzhaigou Valley in 2014. Sap flow was measured by Granier-type thermal dissipation probes and soil water content was measured by time-domain reflectometry probes for a successive period. Pinus tabulaeformis and Betua albo-sinensis species showed different responses to meteorological factors under different soil water conditions. Despite that whole tree water use was much higher for Pinus tabulaeformis due to greater sapwood area, sap flux density of the other co-occurring species Betua albo-sinensis was higher throughout the growing season. Normalized sap flux density (Fd) could be mostly well fitted to solar radiation (Rs), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), or the variable of transpiration (VT) by the exponential saturation function. Much better fitted curves were found for Fd -VPD and Fd - VT datasets than Fd - Rs datasets. For most datasets, normalized Fd increased rapidly when the environmental factors were below their threshold values, but reached an asymptote thereafter. Based on the species' differences in fitting parameters and the average maximum sap flow level under different soil water conditions, it was concluded that Pinus tabulaeformis was sensitive to soil water conditions and tolerant of low soil water availability, while Betua albo-sinensis was insensitive to soil moisture and needed to access to similarly high amount of soil water in the growing season after leaf expansion. These results indicated possible

  20. Climate and landscape drive the pace and pattern of conifer encroachment into subalpine meadows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubetkin, Kaitlin C; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy; Kueppers, Lara M

    2017-09-01

    . Applying our temporal model to downscaled output from four global climate models indicated that the average meadow will shift to forest by the end of the 21st century. Sierra Nevada meadow encroachment by conifers is ubiquitous and associated with climate conditions increasingly favorable for tree recruitment, which will lead to substantial changes in subalpine meadows and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Hydro-geochemical modeling of subalpine urbanized area: geochemical characterization of the shallow and deep aquifers of the urban district of Como (first results).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrana, Silvia; Brunamonte, Fabio; Frascoli, Francesca; Ferrario, Maria Francesca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Pozzi, Andrea; Gambillara, Roberto; Binda, Gilberto

    2016-04-01

    One of the greatest environmental and social-economics threats is climate change. This topic, in the next few years, will have a significant impact on the availability of water resources of many regions. This is compounded by the strong anthropization of water systems that shows an intensification of conflicts for water resource exploitation. Therefore, it is necessary a sustainable manage of natural resources thorough knowledge of the hosting territories. The development of investigation and data processing methods are essential to reduce costs for the suitable use and protection of resources. Identify a sample area for testing the best approach is crucial. This research aims to find a valid methodology for the characterization, modeling and management of subalpine urban aquifers, and the urban district of Como appears perfect. The city of Como is located at the southern end of the western sector of Lake Como (N Italy). It is a coastal town, placed on a small alluvial plain, therefore in close communication with the lake. The plain is drained by two streams, which are presently artificially buried, and have an underground flow path in the urban section till the mouth. This city area, so, is suitable for this project as it is intensely urbanized, its dimensions is not too extensive and it is characterized by two aquifers very important and little known. These are a shallow aquifer and a deep aquifer, which are important not only for any water supply, but also for the stability of the ground subsidence in the city. This research is also the opportunity to work in a particular well-known area with high scientific significance; however, there is complete absence of information regarding the deep aquifer. Great importance has also the chosen and used of the more powerful open source software for this type of area, such as PHREEQC, EnvironInsite, PHREEQE etc., used for geological and geochemical data processing. The main goal of this preliminary work is the

  2. Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

    1996-01-01

    Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

  3. The Effect of Re-Planting Trees on Soil Microbial Communities in a Wildfire-Induced Subalpine Grassland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ed-Haun Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire often causes tremendous changes in ecosystems, particularly in subalpine and alpine areas, which are vulnerable due to severe climate conditions such as cold temperature and strong wind. This study aimed to clarify the effect of tree re-planting on ecosystem services such as the soil microbial community after several decades. We compared the re-planted forest and grassland with the mature forest as a reference in terms of soil microbial biomass C and N (Cmic and Nmic, enzyme activities, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA composition, and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE. The Cmic and Nmic did not differ among the grassland, re-planted forest and mature forest soil; however, ratios of Cmic/Corg and Nmic/Ntot decreased from the grassland to re-planted forest and mature forest soil. The total PLFAs and those attributed to bacteria and Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria did not differ between the re-planted forest and grassland soil. Principle component analysis of the PLFA content separated the grassland from re-planted forest and mature forest soil. Similarly, DGGE analysis revealed changes in both bacterial and fungal community structures with changes in vegetation. Our results suggest that the microbial community structure changes with the re-planting of trees after a fire event in this subalpine area. Recovery of the soil microbial community to the original state in a fire-damaged site in a subalpine area may require decades, even under a re-planted forest.

  4. An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2006-01-01

    Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

  5. Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

    2005-01-01

    A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

  6. Modeling landowner behavior regarding forest certification

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Mercker; Donald G. Hodges

    2008-01-01

    Nonindustrial private forest owners in western Tennessee were surveyed to assess their awareness, acceptance, and perceived benefits of forest certification. More than 80 percent of the landowners indicated a willingness to consider certification for their lands. A model was created to explain landowner behavior regarding their willingness to consider certification....

  7. Biogeochemical impacts of wildfires over four millennia in a Rocky Mountain subalpine watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnette, Paul V; Higuera, Philip E; McLauchlan, Kendra K; Derr, Kelly M; Briles, Christy E; Keefe, Margaret H

    2014-08-01

    Wildfires can significantly alter forest carbon (C) storage and nitrogen (N) availability, but the long-term biogeochemical legacy of wildfires is poorly understood. We obtained a lake-sediment record of fire and biogeochemistry from a subalpine forest in Colorado, USA, to examine the nature, magnitude, and duration of decadal-scale, fire-induced ecosystem change over the past c. 4250 yr. The high-resolution record contained 34 fires, including 13 high-severity events within the watershed. High-severity fires were followed by increased sedimentary N stable isotope ratios (δ15N) and bulk density, and decreased C and N concentrations--reflecting forest floor destruction, terrestrial C and N losses, and erosion. Sustained low sediment C : N c. 20-50 yr post-fire indicates reduced terrestrial organic matter subsidies to the lake. Low sedimentary δ15N c. 50-70 yr post-fire, coincident with C and N recovery, suggests diminishing terrestrial N availability during stand development. The magnitude of post-fire changes generally scaled directly with inferred fire severity. Our results support modern studies of forest successional C and N accumulation and indicate pronounced, long-lasting biogeochemical impacts of wildfires in subalpine forests. However, even repeated high-severity fires over millennia probably did not deplete C or N stocks, because centuries between high-severity fires allowed for sufficient biomass recovery. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  8. A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Brunelle, Andrea; Thompson, Robert S.

    2015-01-01

    Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

  9. Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Sushuai Zhu

    2015-01-01

    Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes...

  10. Site- and Species-Specific Influences on Sub-Alpine Conifer Growth in Mt. Rainier National Park, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myesa Legendre-Fixx

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the factors that influence the climate sensitivity of treeline species is critical to understanding carbon sequestration, forest dynamics, and conservation in high elevation forest/meadow ecotones. Using tree cores from four sub-alpine conifer species collected from three sides of Mt. Rainier, WA, USA, we investigated the influences of species identity and sites with different local climates on radial growth–climate relationships. We created chronologies for each species at each site, determined influential plant-relevant annual and seasonal climatic variables influencing growth, and investigated how the strength of climate sensitivity varied across species and location. Overall, similar climate variables constrained growth on all three sides of the mountain for each of the four study species. Summer warmth positively influenced radial growth, whereas snow, spring warmth, previous summer warmth, and spring humidity negatively influenced growth. We discovered only a few subtle differences in the climate sensitivity of co-occurring species at the same site and between the same species at different sites in pairwise comparisons. A model including species by climate interactions provided the best balance between parsimony and fit, but did not lead to substantially greater predictive power relative to a model without site or species interactions. Our results imply that at treeline in moist temperate regions like Mt. Rainier, the same climatic variables drive annual variation in growth across species and locations, despite species differences in physiology and site differences in mean climates.

  11. Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara M. Kueppers

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

  12. Instream wood loads in montane forest streams of the Colorado Front Range, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Karen J.; Wohl, Ellen

    2015-04-01

    Although several studies examine instream wood loads and associated geomorphic effects in streams of subalpine forests in the U.S. Southern Rocky Mountains, little is known of instream wood loads in lower elevation, montane forests of the region. We compare instream wood loads and geomorphic effects between streams draining montane forest stands of differing age (old growth versus younger) and disturbance history (healthy versus infested by mountain pine beetles). We examined forest stand characteristics, instream wood load, channel geometry, pool volume, and sediment storage in 33 pool-riffle or plane-bed stream reaches with objectives of determining whether (i) instream wood and geomorphic effects differed significantly among old-growth, younger, healthy, and beetle-infested forest stands and (ii) wood loads correlated with valley and channel characteristics. Wood loads were standardized to drainage area, stream gradient, reach length, bankfull width, and floodplain area. Streams flowing through old-growth forests had significantly larger wood loads and logjam volumes (pairwise t-tests), as well as logjam frequencies (Kruskal-Wallis test), residual pool volume, and fine sediment storage around wood than streams flowing through younger forests. Wood loads in streams draining beetle-infested forest did not differ significantly from those in healthy forest stands, but best subset regression models indicated that elevation, stand age, and beetle infestation were the best predictors of wood loads in channels and on floodplains, suggesting that beetle infestation is affecting instream wood characteristics. Wood loads are larger than values from subalpine streams in the same region and jams are larger and more closely spaced. We interpret these differences to reflect greater wood piece mobility in subalpine zone streams. Stand age appears to exert the dominant influence on instream wood characteristics within pool-riffle streams in the study area rather than beetle

  13. Measuring and modelling forest transpiration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šír, Miloslav; Čermák, J.; Naděždina, N.; Pražák, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 4, - (2008), č. 012050 ISSN 1755-1315. [Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management /24./. Bled, 02.06.2008-04.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/0375; GA ČR GA205/08/1174; GA ČR GA526/08/1016; GA MŠk MEB0808114; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07; GA AV ČR 1QS200420562 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510; CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : plant transpiration * SAP flow * floodplain forest Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  14. Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

    2008-01-01

    Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

  15. Acting Locally: A Guide to Model, Community and Demonstration Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Debbie Pella

    1993-01-01

    Describes Canada's efforts in sustainable forestry, which refers to management practices that ensure long-term health of forest ecosystems so that they can continue to provide environmental, social, and economic benefits. Describes model forests, community forests, and demonstration forests and lists contacts for each of the projects. (KS)

  16. Mapping Plant Functional Groups in Subalpine Grassland of the Greater Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Magiera

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Plant functional groups—in our case grass, herbs, and legumes—and their spatial distribution can provide information on key ecosystem functions such as species richness, nitrogen fixation, and erosion control. Knowledge about the spatial distribution of plant functional groups provides valuable information for grassland management. This study described and mapped the distribution of grass, herb, and legume coverage of the subalpine grassland in the high-mountain Kazbegi region, Greater Caucasus, Georgia. To test the applicability of new sensors, we compared the predictive power of simulated hyperspectral canopy reflectance, simulated multispectral reflectance, simulated vegetation indices, and topographic variables for modeling plant functional groups. The tested grassland showed characteristic differences in species richness; in grass, herb, and legume coverage; and in connected structural properties such as yield. Grass (Hordeum brevisubulatum was dominant in biomass-rich hay meadows. Herb-rich grassland featured the highest species richness and evenness, whereas legume-rich grassland was accompanied by a high coverage of open soil and showed dominance of a single species, Astragalus captiosus. The best model fits were achieved with a combination of reflectance, vegetation indices, and topographic variables as predictors. Random forest models for grass, herb, and legume coverage explained 36%, 25%, and 37% of the respective variance, and their root mean square errors varied between 12–15%. Hyperspectral and multispectral reflectance as predictors resulted in similar models. Because multispectral data are more easily available and often have a higher spatial resolution, we suggest using multispectral parameters enhanced by vegetation indices and topographic parameters for modeling grass, herb, and legume coverage. However, overall model fits were merely moderate, and further testing, including stronger gradients and the addition of

  17. Similarity of nutrient uptake and root dimensions of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir at two contrasting sites in Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yanai, R; McFarlane, K; Lucash, M; Kulpa, S; Wood, D

    2009-10-09

    Nutrient uptake capacity is an important parameter in modeling nutrient uptake by plants. Researchers commonly assume that uptake capacity measured for a species can be used across sites. We tested this assumption by measuring the nutrient uptake capacity of intact roots of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmanni Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) at Loch Vale Watershed and Fraser Experimental Forest in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado. Roots still attached to the tree were exposed to one of three concentrations of nutrient solutions for time periods ranging from 1 to 96 hours, and solutions were analyzed for ammonium, nitrate, calcium, magnesium, and potassium. Surprisingly, the two species were indistinguishable in nutrient uptake within site for all nutrients (P > 0.25), but uptake rates differed by site. In general, nutrient uptake was higher at Fraser (P = 0.01, 0.15, 0.03, 0.18 for NH{sub 4}{sup +}, NO{sub 3}{sup -}, Ca{sup 2+}, and K{sup +}, respectively), which is west of the Continental Divide and has lower atmospheric deposition of N than Loch Vale. Mean uptake rates by site for ambient solution concentrations were 0.12 {micro}mol NH{sub 4}{sup +} g{sub fwt}{sup -1} h{sup -1}, 0.02 {micro}mol NO{sub 3}{sup -} g{sub fwt}{sup -1}, 0.21 {micro}mol Ca{sup 2+} g{sub fwt}{sup -1} h{sup -1}, and 0.01 {micro}mol Mg{sup 2+} g{sub fwt}{sup -1} h{sup -1} at Loch Vale, and 0.21 {micro}mol NH{sub 4}{sup +} f{sub fwt}{sup -1}h{sup -1}, 0.04 {micro}mol NO{sub 3}{sup -} g{sub fwt}{sup -1} h{sup -1}, 0.51 {micro}mol Ca{sup 2+}g{sub fwt}{sup -1}h{sup -1}, and 0.07 {micro}mol Mg{sup 2+} f{sub fwt}{sup -1}h{sup -1} at Fraser. The importance of site conditions in determining uptake capacity should not be overlooked when parameterizing nutrient uptake models. We also characterized the root morphology of these two species and compared them to other tree species we have measured at various sites in the northeastern USA. Engelman spruce and subalpine fir

  18. Dead wood biomass and turnover time, measured by radiocarbon, along a subalpine elevation gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueppers, Lara M; Southon, John; Baer, Paul; Harte, John

    2004-12-01

    Dead wood biomass can be a substantial fraction of stored carbon in forest ecosystems, and coarse woody debris (CWD) decay rates may be sensitive to climate warming. We used an elevation gradient in Colorado Rocky Mountain subalpine forest to examine climate and species effects on dead wood biomass, and on CWD decay rate. Using a new radiocarbon approach, we determined that the turnover time of lodgepole pine CWD (340+/-130 years) was roughly half as long in a site with 2.5-3 degrees C warmer air temperature, as that of pine (630+/-400 years) or Engelmann spruce CWD (800+/-960 and 650+/-410 years) in cooler sites. Across all sites and both species, CWD age ranged from 2 to 600 years, and turnover time was 580+/-180 years. Total standing and fallen dead wood biomass ranged from 4.7+/-0.2 to 54+/-1 Mg ha(-1), and from 2.8 to 60% of aboveground live tree biomass. Dead wood biomass increased 75 kg ha(-1) per meter gain in elevation and decreased 13 Mg ha(-1) for every degree C increase in mean air temperature. Differences in biomass and decay rates along the elevation gradient suggest that climate warming will lead to a loss of dead wood carbon from subalpine forest.

  19. Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

    2002-01-01

    Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

  20. Comparative seed germination traits in alpine and subalpine grasslands: higher elevations are associated with warmer germination temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Pascual, E; Jiménez-Alfaro, B; Bueno, Á

    2017-01-01

    Seed germination traits in alpine grasslands are poorly understood, despite the sensitivity of these communities to climate change. We hypothesise that germination traits predict species occurrence along the alpine-subalpine elevation gradient. Phylogenetic comparative analyses were performed using fresh seeds of 22 species from alpine and subalpine grasslands (1600-2400 m) of the Cantabrian Mountains, Spain (43° N, 5° W). Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise germinability, optimum germination temperature and effect of cold and warm stratification on dormancy breaking. Variability in these traits was reduced by phylogenetic principal component analysis (phyl.PCA). Phylogenetic generalised least squares regression (PGLS) was used to fit a model in which species average elevation was predicted from their position on the PCA axes. Most subalpine species germinated in snow-like conditions, whereas most alpine species needed accumulation of warm temperatures. Phylogenetic signal was low. PCA1 ordered species according to overall germinability, whilst PCA2 ordered them according to preference for warm or cold germination. PCA2 significantly predicted species occurrence in the alpine-subalpine gradient, as higher elevation species tended to have warmer germination preferences. Our results show that germination traits in high-mountain grasslands are closely linked to the alpine-subalpine gradient. Alpine species, especially those from stripped and wind-edge communities, prefer warmer germination niches, suggesting that summer emergence prevents frost damage during seedling establishment. In contrast, alpine snowfield and subalpine grassland plants have cold germination niches, indicating that winter emergence may occur under snow to avoid drought stress. © 2016 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  1. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  2. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported.

  3. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported

  4. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  5. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  6. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  7. Forest dynamics in a forest-tundra ecotone, Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher J. Earle

    1993-01-01

    The alpine timberline in much of western North America is characterized by a structurally complex transition from subalpine forest to alpine tundra, the forest-tundra ecotone. Trees within the ecotone are typically arrayed across the landscape within clumps or "ribbon forests," elongated strips oriented perpendicular to the prevailing winds. This study...

  8. Conifer density within lake catchments predicts fish mercury concentrations in remote subalpine lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herring, Garth; Johnson, Branden L.; Graw, Rick

    2016-01-01

    Remote high-elevation lakes represent unique environments for evaluating the bioaccumulation of atmospherically deposited mercury through freshwater food webs, as well as for evaluating the relative importance of mercury loading versus landscape influences on mercury bioaccumulation. The increase in mercury deposition to these systems over the past century, coupled with their limited exposure to direct anthropogenic disturbance make them useful indicators for estimating how changes in mercury emissions may propagate to changes in Hg bioaccumulation and ecological risk. We evaluated mercury concentrations in resident fish from 28 high-elevation, sub-alpine lakes in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Fish total mercury (THg) concentrations ranged from 4 to 438 ng/g wet weight, with a geometric mean concentration (±standard error) of 43 ± 2 ng/g ww. Fish THg concentrations were negatively correlated with relative condition factor, indicating that faster growing fish that are in better condition have lower THg concentrations. Across the 28 study lakes, mean THg concentrations of resident salmonid fishes varied as much as 18-fold among lakes. We used a hierarchal statistical approach to evaluate the relative importance of physiological, limnological, and catchment drivers of fish Hg concentrations. Our top statistical model explained 87% of the variability in fish THg concentrations among lakes with four key landscape and limnological variables: catchment conifer density (basal area of conifers within a lake's catchment), lake surface area, aqueous dissolved sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon. Conifer density within a lake's catchment was the most important variable explaining fish THg concentrations across lakes, with THg concentrations differing by more than 400 percent across the forest density spectrum. These results illustrate the importance of landscape characteristics in controlling mercury bioaccumulation in fish.

  9. The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model: quantifying urban forest structure and functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) computer model was developed to help managers and researchers quantify urban forest structure and functions. The model quantifies species composition and diversity, diameter distribution, tree density and health, leaf area, leaf biomass, and other structural characteristics; hourly volatile organic compound emissions (emissions that...

  10. Numerical modeling of the airflow around a forest edge using LiDAR-derived forest heigths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudreault, Louis-Etienne; Dellwik, Ebba; Bechmann, Andreas

    A 3D methodology to quantify the effect of forests on the mean wind flow field is presented. The methodology is based on the treatment of forest raw data of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) scans, and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method based on a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (Ra......NS) approach using the k−e turbulence model with a corresponding canopy model. The example site investigated is a forest edge located on the Falster island in Denmark, where a measurement campaign was conducted. The LiDAR scans are used in order to obtain the forest heights, which served as input...

  11. The Impact of Forest Density on Forest Height Inversion Modeling from Polarimetric InSAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changcheng Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest height is of great significance in analyzing the carbon cycle on a global or a local scale and in reconstructing the accurate forest underlying terrain. Major algorithms for estimating forest height, such as the three-stage inversion process, are depending on the random-volume-over-ground (RVoG model. However, the RVoG model is characterized by a lot of parameters, which influence its applicability in forest height retrieval. Forest density, as an important biophysical parameter, is one of those main influencing factors. However, its influence to the RVoG model has been ignored in relating researches. For this paper, we study the applicability of the RVoG model in forest height retrieval with different forest densities, using the simulated and real Polarimetric Interferometric SAR data. P-band ESAR datasets of the European Space Agency (ESA BioSAR 2008 campaign were selected for experiments. The test site was located in Krycklan River catchment in Northern Sweden. The experimental results show that the forest density clearly affects the inversion accuracy of forest height and ground phase. For the four selected forest stands, with the density increasing from 633 to 1827 stems/Ha, the RMSEs of inversion decrease from 4.6 m to 3.1 m. The RVoG model is not quite applicable for forest height retrieval especially in sparsely vegetated areas. We conclude that the forest stand density is positively related to the estimation accuracy of the ground phase, but negatively correlates to the ground-to-volume scattering ratio.

  12. A model-based approach to estimating forest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2006-01-01

    A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

  13. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  14. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  15. Forest owner representation of forest management and perception of resource efficiency: a structural equation modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ficko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Underuse of nonindustrial private forests in developed countries has been interpreted mostly as a consequence of the prevailing noncommodity objectives of their owners. Recent empirical studies have indicated a correlation between the harvesting behavior of forest owners and the specific conceptualization of appropriate forest management described as "nonintervention" or "hands-off" management. We aimed to fill the huge gap in knowledge of social representations of forest management in Europe and are the first to be so rigorous in eliciting forest owner representations in Europe. We conducted 3099 telephone interviews with randomly selected forest owners in Slovenia, asking them whether they thought they managed their forest efficiently, what the possible reasons for underuse were, and what they understood by forest management. Building on social representations theory and applying a series of structural equation models, we tested the existence of three latent constructs of forest management and estimated whether and how much these constructs correlated to the perception of resource efficiency. Forest owners conceptualized forest management as a mixture of maintenance and ecosystem-centered and economics-centered management. None of the representations had a strong association with the perception of resource efficiency, nor could it be considered a factor preventing forest owners from cutting more. The underuse of wood resources was mostly because of biophysical constraints in the environment and not a deep-seated philosophical objection to harvesting. The difference between our findings and other empirical studies is primarily explained by historical differences in forestland ownership in different parts of Europe and the United States, the rising number of nonresidential owners, alternative lifestyle, and environmental protectionism, but also as a consequence of our high methodological rigor in testing the relationships between the constructs

  16. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  17. Modelling root reinforcement in shallow forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugset, Arne E.

    1997-01-01

    A hypothesis used to explain the relationship between timber harvesting and landslides is that tree roots add mechanical support to soil, thus increasing soil strength. Upon harvest, the tree roots decay which reduces soil strength and increases the risk of management -induced landslides. The technical literature does not adequately support this hypothesis. Soil strength values attributed to root reinforcement that are in the technical literature are such that forested sites can't fail and all high risk, harvested sites must fail. Both unstable forested sites and stable harvested sites exist, in abundance, in the real world thus, the literature does not adequately describe the real world. An analytical model was developed to calculate soil strength increase due to root reinforcement. Conceptually, the model is composed of a reinforcing element with high tensile strength, i.e. a conifer root, embedded in a material with little tensile strength, i.e. a soil. As the soil fails and deforms, the reinforcing element also deforms and stretches. The lateral deformation of the reinforcing element is treated analytically as a laterally loaded pile in a flexible foundation and the axial deformation is treated as an axially loaded pile. The governing differential equations are solved using finite-difference approximation techniques. The root reinforcement model was tested by comparing the final shape of steel and aluminum rods, parachute cord, wooden dowels, and pine roots in direct shear with predicted shapes from the output of the root reinforcement model. The comparisons were generally satisfactory, were best for parachute cord and wooden dowels, and were poorest for steel and aluminum rods. A parameter study was performed on the root reinforcement model which showed reinforced soil strength increased with increasing root diameter and soil depth. Output from the root reinforcement model showed a strain incompatibility between large and small diameter roots. The peak

  18. Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Mark W. Schwartz

    1994-01-01

    Originally diminished by development, forests are coming back: forest biomass is accumulating. Forests are repositories for many threatened species. Even with increased standing timber, however, biodiversity is threatened by increased forest fragmentation and by exotic species.

  19. Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.

    1993-01-01

    Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests

  20. Modelling of 137Cs behaviour in forest ecosystems and prediction of its accumulation in forest products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiridonov, S.I.; Fesenko, S.V.; Gontarenko, I.A.; Avila, R.

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs migration in forest ecosystem contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident presented, which describes the behaviour of this radionuclide in the forest litter-soil system, tress, and forest animals. The model's parameters for different types of forest ecosystems are estimated and model's adequacy is tested through the use of independent experimental data. The sensitivity of the model's output variables is analyzed to variations in the most significant parameters. The differences in the seasonal and mean annual dynamics of 137 Cs concentration in muscles of roe deers and mooses are shown to be defined by specific features of the diets of these animals and variations in 137 Cs content in the main diet components [ru

  1. Soil ecological interactions: comparisons between tropical and subalpine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grizelle Gonzalez; Ruth E. Ley; Steven K. Schmidt; Xiaoming Zou; Timothy R. Seastedt

    2001-01-01

    Soil fauna can influence soil processes through interactions with the microbial community. Due to the complexity of the functional roles of fauna and their effects on microbes, little consensus has been reached on the extent to which soil fauna can regulate microbial activities. We quantified soil microbial biomass and maximum growth rates in control and fauna-excluded...

  2. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  3. A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson III; David R. Larsen; Jacob S. Fraser; Jian. Yang

    2013-01-01

    Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, standscale processes while making large-scale (i.e., .107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that...

  4. Promoting Sustainable Forest Management Among Stakeholders in the Prince Albert Model Forest, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen T Hvenegaard

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Model Forests are partnerships for shared decision-making to support social, environmental, and economic sustainability in forest management. Relationships among sustainable forest management partners are often strained, but the Prince Albert Model Forest (PAMF represents a process of effective stakeholder involvement, cooperative relationships, visionary planning, and regional landscape management. This article seeks to critically examine the history, drivers, accomplishments, and challenges associated with the PAMF. Four key phases are discussed, representing different funding levels, planning processes, research projects, and partners. Key drivers in the PAMF were funding, urgent issues, provincial responsibility, core of committed people, evolving governance, desire for a neutral organisation, role of protected areas, and potential for mutual benefits. The stakeholders involved in the Model Forest, including the forest industry and associated groups, protected areas, Aboriginal groups, local communities, governments, and research groups, were committed to the project, cooperated on many joint activities, provided significant staffing and financial resources, and gained many benefits to their own organisations. Challenges included declining funding, changing administrative structures, multiple partners, and rotating representatives. The PAMF process promoted consultative and integrated land resource management in the region, and demonstrated the positive results of cooperation between stakeholders interested in sustainable forest management.

  5. Provenance variation in subalpine fir grown as an exotic tree species in Denmark and Iceland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skúlason, Brynjar

    Neonectria neomacrospora in Denmark. In Iceland the corkbark fir showed superior results, especially for survival rate and Christmas tree quality. The White River provenance from British Columbia is recommended for use in Denmark. The Mount Taylor provenance from the Cibola National Forest in New Mexico...... fir (A. lasiocarpa var. lasiocarpa) and corkbark fir (A. lasiocarpa var. arizonica (Merriam) Lemmon) was established at three sites in Denmark and at one site in Iceland in 1999. Adaptability, Christmas tree quality, growth rhythm and susceptibility to pests and pathogens were measured and assessed...... and the most spring frost damage on buds. The westernmost subalpine fir provenances from Washington state and British Columbia showed the overall best results in Denmark, with the highest survival (after 15 years), fastest height growth and highest Christmas tree quality and profitability, as well as both good...

  6. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  7. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  8. Modeling Precipitation Dependent Forest Resilience in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, P.; Behera, M. D.; Roy, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  9. MODELING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT FOREST RESILIENCE IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Das

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i forest, (ii scrubland, (iii grassland and (iv treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2 of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5 from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  10. Alternative business models for forest - dependent communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dominant mode of business practice in the African forest sector – especially in the high forest cover regions – comes in the form of concessionaires operating on publicly held lands. Increasingly, however, the concession - based model is being challenged. Is it socially and environmentally sustainable? Does it lead to ...

  11. Modeling soil erosion and transport on forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven G McNulty

    1998-01-01

    Century-long studies on the impacts of forest management in North America suggest sediment can cause major reduction on stream water quality. Soil erosion patterns in forest watersheds are patchy and heterogeneous. Therefore, patterns of soil erosion are difficult to model and predict. The objective of this study is to develop a user friendly management tool for land...

  12. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

  13. Modeling population dynamics and woody biomass of Alaska coastal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randy L. Peterson; Jingjing Liang; Tara M. Barrett

    2014-01-01

    Alaska coastal forest, 6.2 million ha in size, has been managed in the past mainly through clearcutting. Declining harvest and dwindling commercial forest resources over the past 2 decades have led to increased interest in management of young-growth stands and utilization of woody biomass for bioenergy. However, existing models to support these new management systems...

  14. Stand structure and vegetation dynamics of a subalpine treed fen in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, J.B. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1997-06-01

    The tree population size structure and relationship between tree diameter and age were examined in a subalpine fen and surrounding Picea-Abies forest in northern Colorado. The fen grades from a sedge fen, through an ecotone, to a treed fen (i.e. fen colonized by trees). Tree growth rate varies across the vegetational gradient, with the sedge fen having the slowest growth, and the upland forest having the fastest growth. Differences in growth rate are related to the average size of peat hummocks, with areas containing tall hummocks exhibiting the highest tree growth rates. Size structures display the characteristic reverse-J distribution generally indicative of stable populations, but forest vegetation is expanding into the open regions of the fen, and within the treed fen an increase in Abies lasiocarpa is occurring. These changes are primarily attributed to a positive feedback situation wherein the fen`s surface is built up by peat accumulation. Distinct hummocks form first on the open fen but then coalesce to form raised peat islands in the treed fen. This new substrate provides habitat with a comparatively low water table and allows the growth of mesophytic forest vegetation. A pathway for this vegetational development is proposed. 40 refs., 2 figs.

  15. Provenance variability in nursery growth of subalpine fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlie Cartwright; Cheng Ying

    2011-01-01

    Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa [Hook] Nutt.) is a wide-ranging, high-elevation species in the interior of British Columbia. It is commonly harvested for lumber, but replanting of it is limited. Some reticence is based upon wood quality and rate of growth, but there are also seed and nursery culturing difficulties. This study investigated seedling growth traits of 111...

  16. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

  17. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  18. Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Burton; Bobashev, Georgly

    2012-01-01

    We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"

  19. Understanding forest-derived biomass supply with GIS modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hock, B. K.; Blomqvist, L.; Hall, P.

    2012-01-01

    distribution, and the cost of delivery as forests are frequently remote from energy users. A GIS-based model was developed to predict supply curves of forest biomass material for a site or group of sites, both now and in the future. The GIS biomass supply model was used to assist the New Zealand Energy...... Efficiency and Conservation Authority's development of a national target for biomass use for industrial heat production, to determine potential forest residue volumes for industrial heat and their delivery costs for 19 processing plants of the dairy company Fonterra, and towards investigating options...

  20. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  1. Stand model for upland forests of Southern Arkansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mielke, D.L.; Shugart, H.H.; West, D.C.

    1978-06-01

    A forest stand growth and composition simulator (FORAR) was developed by modifying a stand growth model by Shugart and West (1977). FORAR is a functional stand model which used ecological parameters to relate individual tree growth to environment rather than using Markov probability matrices or differential equations to determine single tree or species replacement rates. FORAR simulated tree growth and species composition of upland forests of Union County, Ark., by considering 33 tree species on a /sup 1///sub 12/ ha circular plot.

  2. Analysis of nitrogen saturation potential in Rocky Mountain tundra and forest: implications for aquatic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Holland, Elisabeth A.; Parton, William J.

    1994-01-01

    We employed grass and forest versions of the CENTURY model under a range of N deposition values (0.02–1.60 g N m−2 y−1) to explore the possibility that high observed lake and stream N was due to terrestrial N saturation of alpine tundra and subalpine forest in Loch Vale Watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Model results suggest that N is limiting to subalpine forest productivity, but that excess leachate from alpine tundra is sufficient to account for the current observed stream N. Tundra leachate, combined with N leached from exposed rock surfaces, produce high N loads in aquatic ecosystems above treeline in the Colorado Front Range. A combination of terrestrial leaching, large N inputs from snowmelt, high watershed gradients, rapid hydrologic flushing and lake turnover times, and possibly other nutrient limitations of aquatic organisms constrain high elevation lakes and streams from assimilating even small increases in atmospheric N. CENTURY model simulations further suggest that, while increased N deposition will worsen the situation, nitrogen saturation is an ongoing phenomenon.

  3. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  4. Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

    2017-08-01

    As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

  5. Partitioning CO2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Davidson, Eric [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Finzi, Adrien [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Wehr, Richdard [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States); Moorcroft, Paul [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    daytime respiration (by ~100%) in the first half of the growing season at our site, and portrays ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency as declining when in fact it is stable until autumnal senescence. B. Vegetation Phenology and belowground allocation: Findings: 1. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) showed a seasonal pattern, peaking in mid-summer when trees were most active. 2. The effective age of the substrate for belowground respiration is less than 2 weeks. 3. Above and belowground phenology are more synchronous in deciduous hardwood stands than evergreen hemlock stands. 4. The decline in root respiration rates in the fall is related to temperature rather than acclimation of root respiration or substrate limitations. Methodological Issues: 5. The isotopic signatures of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are too similar for isotopic partitioning of belowground respiration into these two components at our site—in keeping with the recent findings of Bowling et al. (2015) in a subalpine conifer forest. 6. Artifacts of the trenching method, such as changes in soil moisture and increased carbon substrate from the newly severed roots, are significant and need to be quantified when determining daily to annual estimates of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. C. Effects of simulated exudates on priming of microbial decomposition: The stoichiometry of root exudates influences both the amount and the mechanism by which priming occurs. At low C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial efficiency. At high C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial biomass. D. Modeling with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2): 1. Incorporation of 13C tracking to create an isotopically-enabled Ecosystem Demography v2 model (ED2) 2. State-of-the-art parameter optimization methodology developed for improving ED2 model predictions and parameters. 3. Significantly improved model predictions of growth- and maintenance-related carbon fluxes and 13C fluxes

  6. Effects of model choice and forest structure on inventory-based estimations of Puerto Rican forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Brandeis; Maria Del Rocio; Suarez Rozo

    2005-01-01

    Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

  7. Modelling Forest Water Consumption in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Nonhebel, S.

    1988-01-01

    The water consumption of oak, beech, spruce and pine forest is predicted from routinely measured meteorological data for five locations in the Netherlands. Differences in water consumption are found to be primarily a result of differences in interception loss. Predicted interception loss was found

  8. Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krcmar, E.; Vertinsky, I.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2003-01-01

    To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out

  9. Monitoring, modelling and managing Canada's forest carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurz, W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents information concerning the management of carbon stocks both globally and in Canada, with reference to the fact that forests may contribute to carbon emissions problems. Global fossil carbon emissions statistics were provided, as well as data of forest area per capita in Canada and various countries. Details of forest management options and carbon accounting with reference to the Kyoto Protocol were reviewed. An explanation of forest management credits in national accounts was provided. An explanation of carbon sinks and carbon sources was also presented, along with details of stand level carbon dynamics. A model for calculating landscape level carbon stocks was presented, with reference to increasing and decreasing disturbances. A hypothetical landscape example was provided. It was concluded that age-class structure affect the amount of carbon stored in landscape; age-class structure also affect carbon dynamics; and responses reflect the change in disturbance regimes. An overview of international reporting requirements was presented. Canadian harvests equal 54,000 tonnes of carbon per year. It was recommended that managed forests could increase carbon in forests while also managing carbon harvests to meet society's needs. A chart presenting forest management details was presented, along with a hypothetical landscape example and a forecast for cumulative changes after 50 years, The benefits and challenges of forest management were reviewed as well as options regarding salvaging and deforestation avoidance. A carbon budget model was presented. It was concluded that forests in Canada could be used in a greenhouse gas management strategy. However, changes in disturbance may mean the difference between net source or net sink. Details of biomass were presented and multi-mode combustion facilities. The feasibility of biomass as a fuel source was discussed, with reference to hydrogen fuel. Gas composition profiles were provided, as well as details of

  10. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  11. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  12. Structural Equation Modeling: Theory and Applications in Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzeng Yih Lam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystem dynamics are driven by a complex array of simultaneous cause-and-effect relationships. Understanding this complex web requires specialized analytical techniques such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. The SEM framework and implementation steps are outlined in this study, and we then demonstrate the technique by application to overstory-understory relationships in mature Douglas-fir forests in the northwestern USA. A SEM model was formulated with (1 a path model representing the effects of successively higher layers of vegetation on late-seral herbs through processes such as light attenuation and (2 a measurement model accounting for measurement errors. The fitted SEM model suggested a direct negative effect of light attenuation on late-seral herbs cover but a direct positive effect of northern aspect. Moreover, many processes have indirect effects mediated through midstory vegetation. SEM is recommended as a forest management tool for designing silvicultural treatments and systems for attaining complex arrays of management objectives.

  13. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  14. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  15. Estimating Carbon Dynamics in an Intact Lowland Mixed Dipterocarp Forest Using a Forest Carbon Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jongyeol Lee

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Intact dipterocarp forests in Asia act as crucial carbon (C reservoirs, and it is therefore important to investigate the C dynamics in these forests. We estimated C dynamics, together with net ecosystem production (NEP, in an intact tropical dipterocarp forest of Brunei Darussalam. Fifty-four simulation units (plots; 20 m × 20 m were established and initial C stocks were determined via direct field measurement. The C dynamics were annually simulated with a regression model and the Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC model. The initial C stock (Mg C·ha−1 of biomass, litter, dead wood and mineral soil were 213.1 ± 104.8, 2.0 ± 0.8, 31.3 ± 38.8, and 80.7 ± 15.5, respectively. Their annual changes (Mg C·ha−1·year−1 were 3.2 ± 1.1, 0.2 ± 0.2, −3.7 ± 6.1, and −0.3 ± 1.1, respectively. NEP was −0.6 ± 6.1 Mg C·ha−1·year−1, showing large heterogeneity among the plots. The initial C stocks of biomass and dead wood, biomass turnover rates and dead wood decay rates were elucidated as dominant factors determining NEP in a sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, investigation on those input data can constrain an uncertainty in determining NEP in the intact tropical forests.

  16. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest: Demonstrating Aboriginal leadership in sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jolly, A.

    1999-09-01

    Experiences of the Waswanipi Cree community in being partners in sustainable forest management are discussed. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest was designated as such in 1997. Since then, it has come to be seen as a forum for the community to express its needs, goals and objectives for the future, and as the first opportunity for the Cree community to exercise leadership and decision-making authority related to land management issues. The Waswanipi land is situated on the southernmost tip of eastern James Bay. It extends to some 35,000 sq km, divided into 52 family hunting territories, called traplines. Each trapline has a designated custodian, who is responsible for ensuring that wildlife is harvested in a sustainable manner. Community life is organized around the traplines, although families will sometimes temporarily relocate close to paid employment opportunities. Nevertheless, the purpose of employment is always to return to the bush, with sufficient materials and supplies to last the hunting and trapping season. Prior to the designation of the Model Forest, the major problems have been the rate and extent of forestry activities on Cree land by outside timber companies, the absence of opportunities for the Cree to have a meaningful role in decisions that impacted their future and the difficulties of convincing government experts and forestry companies to allow the Cree to bring their experience-based knowledge to bear on forest resource management issues. The manner in which the new partnership resulting from the designation of the Model Forest is opening the way to better understanding, mitigation of the negative effects of forestry operations on traplines, mediation of conflicts between trappers and forestry companies with timber licences on Waswanipi land, are described as one of the major achievements of the Model Forest Program. The rate and extent of cutting continues to be a problem, however, there are signs of a growing understanding among the timber

  17. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  18. Response of Subalpine Saplings to Different Drought Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana V. Ivanova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The expectations for increasing periods of drought are becoming larger according to numerous authors. The susceptibility of subalpine tree species to drought provoke our interest to try to understand what will be their reaction to this natural climate change. For this purpose it is set experiment to determine the reaction of drought to 4 subalpine species – Norway spruce (Picea abies L., Mountain pine (Pinus mugo Turra, Macedonian pine (Pinus peuce Grisebach and Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii H . Christ. Different requirements are observed to imitate field conditions as close as possible. The saplings are taken from terrain with no disturbed soil substrate. The plants were placed in a 15 l container and at the beginning of the vegetation were situated in a specially built greenhouse. Precipitation regime is controlled by the irrigation system. The indicators for precipitation levels (for a drought from June to July and August scheme were taken from the two previous real years, who had a significant influence on the species. Precipitation norm for control is taken from subalpine zone of the Rila Mountain. To determine the reaction of all the groups of saplings subjected to various circuits, at the end of the year is recorded the survivors.

  19. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  20. Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

  1. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  2. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

  3. Forest growth and timber quality: crown models and simulation methods for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis P. Dykstra; Robert A. Monserud

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the international conference from which these proceedings are drawn was to explore relationships between forest management activities and timber quality. Sessions were organized to explore models and simulation methodologies that contribute to an understanding of tree development over time and the ways that management and harvesting activities can...

  4. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  5. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...

  6. Radiation dose from Chernobyl forests: assessment using the 'forestpath' model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schell, W.R.; Linkov, I.; Belinkaia, E.; Rimkevich, V.; Zmushko, Yu.; Lutsko, A.; Fifield, F.W.; Flowers, A.G.; Wells, G.

    1996-01-01

    Contaminated forests can contribute significantly to human radiation dose for a few decades after initial contamination. Exposure occurs through harvesting the trees, manufacture and use of forest products for construction materials and paper production, and the consumption of food harvested from forests. Certain groups of the population, such as wild animal hunters and harvesters of berries, herbs and mushrooms, can have particularly large intakes of radionuclides from natural food products. Forestry workers have been found to receive radiation doses several times higher than other groups in the same area. The generic radionuclide cycling model 'forestpath' is being applied to evaluate the human radiation dose and risks to population groups resulting from living and working near the contaminated forests. The model enables calculations to be made to predict the internal and external radiation doses at specific times following the accident. The model can be easily adjusted for dose calculations from other contamination scenarios (such as radionuclide deposition at a low and constant rate as well as complex deposition patterns). Experimental data collected in the forests of Southern Belarus are presented. These data, together with the results of epidemiological studies, are used for model calibration and validation

  7. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  8. Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

    2012-01-01

    An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

  9. LASL models for environmental transport of radionuclides in forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Smith, W.J.; Johnson, L.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory has been developing techniques for evaluating the adequacy of shallow land radioactive disposal sites to contain disposed radionuclides. This report discusses developments in applying a Biological Transport Model to simulate the cycling of plutonium in pinyon-juniper, and ponderosa pine forest ecosystems through serial stage developments using plant growth dynamics created in the model

  10. Predictive models of forest logging residues of Triplochiton ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model developed indicated that logarithmic functions performed better than other form of equation. The findings of this study revealed that there is significant logging residues left to waste in the forest after timber harvest and quantifying this logging residue in terms of biomass model can serve as management tools in ...

  11. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

  12. A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2002-01-01

    Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

  13. Nitrogen cycling models and their application to forest harvesting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, D.W.; Dale, V.H.

    1986-01-01

    The characterization of forest nitrogen- (N-) cycling processes by several N-cycling models (FORCYTE, NITCOMP, FORTNITE, and LINKAGES) is briefly reviewed and evaluated against current knowledge of N cycling in forests. Some important processes (e.g., translocation within trees, N dynamics in decaying leaf litter) appear to be well characterized, whereas others (e.g., N mineralization from soil organic matter, N fixation, N dynamics in decaying wood, nitrification, and nitrate leaching) are poorly characterized, primarily because of a lack of knowledge rather than an oversight by model developers. It is remarkable how well the forest models do work in the absence of data on some key processes. For those systems in which the poorly understood processes could cause major changes in N availability or productivity, the accuracy of model predictions should be examined. However, the development of N-cycling models represents a major step beyond the much simpler, classic conceptual models of forest nutrient cycling developed by early investigators. The new generation of computer models will surely improve as research reveals how key nutrient-cycling processes operate.

  14. Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

  15. Mathematical model of 137Cs dynamics in the deciduous forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamikhin, S.V.; Klyashtorin, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest ecosystem is presented. The behaviour of this radionuclide is assumed to obey the same regularities as the behaviour of its stable chemical analogue, potassium. Radionuclide dynamics are considered in parallel with the dynamics of the phytomass. Radionuclides contained in the vegetation are pooled into two basic compartments: external and internal contamination, with separate analysis of each. The model was verified using the data obtained in the 30-km zone of the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1994. The algorithm described was found to be the most efficient in terms of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest environments

  16. Evaluation of storage and filtration protocols for alpine/subalpine lake water quality samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    John L. Korfmacher; Robert C. Musselman

    2007-01-01

    Many government agencies and other organizations sample natural alpine and subalpine surface waters using varying protocols for sample storage and filtration. Simplification of protocols would be beneficial if it could be shown that sample quality is unaffected. In this study, samples collected from low ionic strength waters in alpine and subalpine lake inlets...

  17. Soil Quality Index Determination Models for Restinga Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilha, R. M.; Casagrande, J. C.; Soares, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    The Restinga Forest is a set of plant communities in mosaic, determined by the characteristics of their substrates as a result of depositional processes and ages. In this complex mosaic are the physiognomies of restinga forests of high-stage regeneration (high restinga) and middle stage of regeneration (low restinga), each with its plant characteristics that differentiate them. Located on the coastal plains of the Brazilian coast, suffering internal influences both the continental slopes, as well as from the sea. Its soils come from the Quaternary and are subject to constant deposition of sediments. The climate in the coastal type is tropical (Köppen). This work was conducted in four locations: (1) Anchieta Island, Ubatuba, (2) Juréia-Itatins Ecological Station, Iguape, (3) Vila das Pedrinhas, Comprida Island; and (4) Cardoso Island, Cananeia. The soil samples were collect at a depths of 0 to 5, 0-10, 0-20, 20-40 and 40 to 60cm for the chemical and physical analysis. Were studied the additive and pondering additive models to evaluate soil quality. It was concluded: a) the comparative additive model produces quantitative results and the pondering additive model quantitative results; b) as the pondering additive model, the values of Soil Quality Index (SQI) for soils under forest of restinga are low and realistic, demonstrating the small plant biomass production potential of these soils, as well as their low resilience; c) the values of SQI similar to areas with and without restinga forest give quantitative demonstration of the restinga be considered as soil phase; d) restinga forest, probably, is maintained solely by the cycling of nutrients in a closed nutrient cycling; e) for the determination of IQS for soils under restinga vegetation the use of routine chemical analysis is adequate. Keywords: Model, restinga forest, Soil Quality Index (SQI).

  18. Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melin, J.

    1997-01-01

    Forests have the capacity to trap and retain radionuclides for a substantial period of time. The dynamic behaviour of nutrients, pollution and radionuclides in forests is complex. The rotation period of a forest stand in the Nordic countries is about 100 years, whilst the time for decomposition of organic material in a forest environment can be several hundred years. This means that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must have an effect for several decades, or be reapplied continuously for long periods of time. To mitigate the detrimental effect of a contaminated forest environment on man, and to minimise the economic loss in trade of contaminated forest products, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of transfer of radionuclides through the forest environment. It must also be stressed that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must be evaluated with respect to long, as well as short term, negative effects, before any decision about remedial action is taken. Of the radionuclides studied in forests in the past, radiocaesium has been the main contributor to dose to man. In this document, only radiocaesium will be discussed since data on the impact of other radionuclides on man are too scarce for a proper evaluation. (EG)

  19. DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated Modeling of Hydrology, Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Plant Growth for Drained Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Shiying; Youssef, Mohamed A; Skaggs, R Wayne; Amatya, Devendra M; Chescheir, G M

    2012-01-01

    We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model, which was adapted mainly from the 3-PG model. The forest growth model estimates net primary production, C allocation, and litterfall using physiology-based methods regulated by air temperature, water deficit, stand age, and soil N conditions. The performance of the newly developed DRAINMOD-FOREST model was evaluated using a long-term (21-yr) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine ( L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results indicated that the DRAINMOD-FOREST accurately predicted annual, monthly, and daily drainage, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The model also predicted annual net primary productivity and dynamics of leaf area index reasonably well. Predicted temporal changes in the organic matter pool on the forest floor and in forest soil were reasonable compared to published literature. Both predicted annual and monthly nitrate export were in good agreement with field measurements, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.89 and 0.79 for annual and monthly predictions, respectively. This application of DRAINMOD-FOREST demonstrated its capability for predicting hydrology and C and N dynamics in drained forests under limited silvicultural practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  20. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baskent, E. Z.; Celik, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests. This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalt district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey. Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETCAP) to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies. Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1,194 ha (4%), the productive forest areas increased about 5,397 ha (18%) with a decrease of degraded forest (5,824 ha, 20%) and increase of maquis areas (2,212 ha, 7%).The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11%) due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized. Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively. (Author)

  1. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

  2. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...

  3. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  4. Modeling disturbance and succession in forest landscapes using LANDIS: introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He

    2004-01-01

    Modeling forest landscape change is challenging because it involves the interaction of a variety of factors and processes, such as climate, succession, disturbance, and management. These processes occur at various spatial and temporal scales, and the interactions can be complex on heterogeneous landscapes. Because controlled field experiments designed to investigate...

  5. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  6. An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation-climate interactions based on national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majasalmi, Titta; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Fridman, Jonas; Bright, Ryan M.

    2018-01-01

    Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MS-NFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.

  7. Interplay between field observations and numerical modeling to understand temporal pulsing of tree root throw processes, Canadian Rockies, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.; Chaikina, O.

    2013-10-01

    During the cycle of forest disturbance, regeneration, and maturity, tree mortality leading to topple is a regular occurrence. When tree topple occurs relatively soon after mortality and if the tree has attained some threshold diameter at breast height (dbh) at the time of death, then notable amounts of soil may be upheaved along with the root wad. This upheaval may result in sediment transfers and soil production. A combination of field evidence and numerical modeling is used herein to gain insights regarding the temporal dynamics of tree topple, associated root throw processes, and pit-mound microtopography. Results from our model of tree population dynamics demonstrate temporal patterns in root throw processes in subalpine forests of the Canadian Rockies, a region in which forests are affected largely by wildfire disturbance. As the forest regenerates after disturbance, the new cohort of trees has to reach a critical dbh before significant root plate upheaval can occur; in the subalpine forests of the Canadian Rockies, this may take up to ~ 102 years. Once trees begin to reach this critical dbh for root plate upheaval, a period of sporadic root throw arises that is caused by mortality of trees during competition. In due course, another wildfire will occur on the landscape and a period of much increased root throw activity then takes place for the next several decades; tree sizes and, therefore, the amount of sediment disturbance will be greater the longer the time period since the previous fire. Results of previous root throw studies covering a number of regional settings are used to guide an exercise in diffusion modeling with the aim of defining a range of reasonable diffusion coefficients for pit-mound degradation; the most appropriate values to fit the field data ranged from 0.01 m2 y- 1 to 0.1 m2 y- 1. A similar exercise is then undertaken that is guided by our field observations in subalpine forests of the Canadian Rockies. For these forests, the most

  8. Modelling nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems; Modellering av naeringssyklus i skogoekosystemer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvindesland, Sheila H.S.B.

    1997-12-31

    Acid deposition`s threat to fresh water and forest environments became an issue in the late 1960s. Acid deposition and forest nutrient cycling then began to be researched in greater co-operation. This thesis studies nutrient cycling processes in Norway spruce forests, emphasizing the effects on soil chemical properties, soil solution chemistry and streamwater chemistry. It investigates the effects of different aged stands on nutrient cycling and sets up nutrient budgets of the base cations and nitrogen at two sites in Norway. It also selects, documents, calibrates, tests and improves nutrient cycling models for use in Norwegian forests. 84 refs., 44 figs., 46 tabs.

  9. Model for estimating air pollutant uptake by forests: calculation of forest absorption of sulfur dioxide from dispersed sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, C.E. Jr.; Sinclair, T.R.; Knoerr, K.R.

    1975-01-01

    The computer model presented in this paper is designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used with only minor changes for any gaseous pollutant. To illustrate the utility of the model, estimates are made of the sink strength of forests for sulfur dioxide. The results agree with experimentally derived estimates of sulfur dioxide uptake in crops and forest trees. (auth)

  10. Forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using general model-based decomposition for polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Nghia Pham; Zou, Bin; Cai, Hongjun; Wang, Chengyi

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of forest parameters over mountain forest areas using polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PolInSAR) images is one of the greatest interests in remote sensing applications. For mountain forest areas, scattering mechanisms are strongly affected by the ground topography variations. Most of the previous studies in modeling microwave backscattering signatures of forest area have been carried out over relatively flat areas. Therefore, a new algorithm for the forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using the general model-based decomposition (GMBD) for PolInSAR image is proposed. This algorithm enables the retrieval of not only the forest parameters, but also the magnitude associated with each mechanism. In addition, general double- and single-bounce scattering models are proposed to fit for the cross-polarization and off-diagonal term by separating their independent orientation angle, which remains unachieved in the previous model-based decompositions. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated with simulated data from PolSARProSim software and ALOS-PALSAR spaceborne PolInSAR datasets over the Kalimantan areas, Indonesia. Experimental results indicate that forest height could be effectively estimated by GMBD.

  11. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  12. Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

    2014-12-01

    General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

  13. Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Storck, Pascal; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2009-05-01

    The effects of forest canopies on snow accumulation and ablation processes can be very important for the hydrology of midlatitude and high-latitude areas. A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime mountainous site in Oregon. The model was evaluated using 2 years of weighing lysimeter data and was able to reproduce the snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution throughout winters both beneath the canopy and in the nearby clearing, with correlations to observations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99. Additionally, the model was evaluated using measurements from a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field site in Canada to test the robustness of the canopy snow interception algorithm in a much different climate. Simulated SWE was relatively close to the observations for the forested sites, with discrepancies evident in some cases. Although the model formulation appeared robust for both types of climates, sensitivity to parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity suggested the magnitude of improvements of SWE simulations that might be achieved by calibration.

  14. Modeling directional thermal radiance from a forest canopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuire, M.J.; Balick, L.K.; Smith, J.A.; Hutchison, B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing technology have increased interest in utilizing the thermal-infared region to gain additional information about surface features such as vegetation canopies. Studies have shown that sensor view angle, canopy structure, and percentage of canopy coverage can affect the response of a thermal sensor. These studies have been primarily of agricultural regions and there have been relatively few examples describing the thermal characteristics of forested regions. This paper describes an extension of an existing thermal vegetation canopy radiance model which has been modified to partially account for the geometrically rough structure of a forest canopy. Fourier series expansion of a canopy height profile is used to calculate improved view factors which partially account for the directional variations in canopy thermal radiance transfers. The original and updated radiance model predictions are compared with experimental data obtained over a deciduous (oak-hickory) forest site. The experimental observations are also used to document azimuthal and nadir directional radiance variations. Maximum angular variations in measured canopy temperatures were 4–6°C (azimuth) and 2.5°C (nadir). Maximum angular variations in simulated temperatures using the modified rough surface model was 4°C. The rough surface model appeared to be sensitive to large gaps in the canopy height profile, which influenced the resultant predicted temperature. (author)

  15. Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The availability of land cover data at local scales is an important component in forest management and monitoring efforts. Regional land cover data seldom provide detailed information needed to support local management needs. Here we present a transferable framework to model forest cover by major plant functional type using aerial photos, multi-date Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) imagery, and topographic variables. We developed probability of occurrence models for deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved evergreen forest using logistic regression in the southern portion of the Wyoming Basin Ecoregion. The model outputs were combined into a synthesis map depicting deciduous and coniferous forest cover type. We evaluated the models and synthesis map using a field-validated, independent data source. Results showed strong relationships between forest cover and model variables, and the synthesis map was accurate with an overall correct classification rate of 0.87 and Cohen’s kappa value of 0.81. The results suggest our method adequately captures the functional type, size, and distribution pattern of forest cover in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

  16. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  17. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  18. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  19. Forest food chain and dose model (FDMF) for RODOS. Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantavaara, A.; Vetikko, V.; Calmon, P.; Wendt, J.

    2001-12-01

    In the early phase of a large-scale fallout situation, both access to forests and the use of wild foods may need temporal restrictions. In a later phase wild foods and internal doses received through them may still need surveillance of radioactivity. After accidental fallout a major source of external radiation are the ground deposits, and in forests contaminated overstorey can also be a considerable source. For consideration of dose pathways related to forests during a nuclear emergency the Forest Food Chain and Dose Model (FDMF) was developed. It is an integral part of RODOS, a real-time, on-line decision support system for off-site emergency management in Europe. The forest module FDMF receives radionuclide concentrations in air as input from the air dispersion model of RODOS, and calculates activities deposited on various parts of the forest. The model simulates the transfer of radionuclides in the forest ecosystem. It quantifies the dynamic changes for three types of forests, typical of a region. The model gives the contamination of forest products and dose rate for external radiation as a function of time. External and internal radiation doses for various population groups according to their stay in forests and their use of forest products can be assessed since the first year until the 50 th year after the fallout event. Doses are calculated for children and adults representing the public, and ingestion doses also for pickers of berries and mushrooms, and hunters. Forest workers are a special group due to their potentially enhanced external dose from outdoor working. The model results can be shown as spatial distributions on top of geographical maps. Many parameters in the FDMF database are regional and have to be adjusted when the model is adapted for local conditions or new radioecological regions. Long-term predictions will be considerably improved when site-specific parameters are used. STUK developed the forest module together with IPSN (Institut de

  20. Estimating Forest fAPAR from Multispectral Landsat-8 Data Using the Invertible Forest Reflectance Model INFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huili Yuan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation in forests (forest fAPAR from multi-spectral Landsat-8 data is investigated in this paper using a physically based radiative transfer model (Invertible Forest Reflectance Model, INFORM combined with an inversion strategy based on artificial neural nets (ANN. To derive the forest fAPAR for the Dabie mountain test site in China in 30 m spatial resolution (size approximately 3000 km2, a database of forest canopy spectral reflectances was simulated with INFORM taking into account structural variables such as leaf area index (LAI, crown coverage and stem density as well as leaf composition. To establish the relationship between forest fAPAR and the reflectance modeled by INFORM, a logarithmic relationship between LAI and fAPAR was used previously established using on-site field measurements. On this basis, predictive models between Landsat-8 reflectance and fAPAR were established using an artificial neural network. After calibrating INFORM for the test site, forty-two forest stands were used to validate the performance of the method. The results show that spectral signatures modeled by INFORM correspond reasonably well with the forest canopy reflectance spectra derived from Landsat data. Deviations increase with increasing angle between surface normal of the hilly terrain and sun incidence. The comparison of estimated and measured fAPAR (R2 = 0.47, RMSE = 0.11 demonstrates that INFORM can be inverted using neural nets to provide acceptable estimates of forest fAPAR. The accuracy of the predictions increased significantly when excluding pixels located in very steep terrain. This demonstrates that the applied topographic correction was not sufficiently accurate and should be improved for making optimum use of radiative transfer models such as INFORM.

  1. Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

  2. Distribution patterns and environmental correlates of Thaumarchaeota abundance in six deep subalpine lakes.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Callieri, C.; Hernandez-Aviles, S.; Salcher, Michaela M.; Fontaneto, D.; Bertoni, R.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 78, č. 2 (2016), s. 215-225 ISSN 1015-1621 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : subalpine lakes * Thaumarchaeota vertical profile * CARD FISH * hypolimnion Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 2.821, year: 2016

  3. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  4. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  5. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  6. Rapid warming forces contrasting growth trends of subalpine fir ( Abies fabri ) at higher- and lower-elevations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wenzhi; Jia, Min; Wang, Genxu; Zhu, Wanze; McDowell, Nate G.

    2017-10-01

    Tree radial growth is expected to increase at higher elevations under climate warming, while lower elevation tree growth is expected to decline. However, numerous studies have found tree radial growth responds consistently to climate along elevational gradients. Here, we sampled five plots across the subalpine Abies fabri forest belt on Gongga Mountain in the eastern Tibetan Plateau to determine tree radial growth trends and responses to climate. Three commonly used detrending methods all consistently showed that tree radial growth at high elevation (> 3100 m) increased, while tree growth declined at the lower elevations (2700 m–2900 m) over the last three decades. Increasing late-growing season temperature positively (p < 0.05) correlated to tree radial growth at higher elevations, but the sign of this relationship reversed to become negative at lower elevations. Moving-window correlation analyses indicated the difference between high and low elevations response to temperature variation increased strongly with warming. Placing our result into the global context, 62% of 39 published studies found that trees along elevation gradients respond divergently to warming, and that these are located in warmer and wetter regions of the Earth. Notably, 28% of studies found non-significant responses to temperature at both high and low elevations. Our findings in the subalpine mountain forest in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were consistent with the majority of published datasets, and imply increasing temperature benefit for tree populations at higher elevation, while warming dampens growth at lower elevations.

  7. A modeling analysis of the interaction between forest age and forest responsiveness to increasing CO2 concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirschbaum, M.U.F.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, both young forest plants and established forest stands were examined to gain insight into likely plant responses to increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), temperature and altered rainfall patterns. Forests have rotations of about 10 to 200 years, during which time anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and the associated changes in climate change can be substantial. The changes are most likely to influence the growth of established forest stands. The CenW forest growth model was used to examine the mechanisms that are responsible for the slowing of forest growth with age, including the response to increasing carbon dioxide. It was shown that inclusion of allocation shifts with tree height, individual tree mortality, changing respiration load and nutrient changes has only a small effect on the response to increasing carbon dioxide. When photosynthesis of mature trees decreases, growth response to increasing CO 2 is reduced. Since the number of interacting processes is so large, no simple and broad interaction between increased carbon dioxide and forest age were identified. It was concluded that it is not yet possible to predict the change in carbon dioxide response by forest age. 54 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs

  8. Partitioning CO2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Davidson, Eric [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Finzi, Adrien [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Wehr, Richard [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Moorcroft, Paul [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    2016-01-28

    photosynthesis (by ~25%) and daytime respiration (by ~100%) in the first half of the growing season at our site, and portrays ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency as declining when in fact it is stable until autumnal senescence. B. Vegetation Phenology and belowground allocation: Findings: 1. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) showed a seasonal pattern, peaking in mid-summer when trees were most active. 2. The effective age of the substrate for belowground respiration is less than 2 weeks. 3. Above and belowground phenology are more synchronous in deciduous hardwood stands than evergreen hemlock stands. 4. The decline in root respiration rates in the fall is related to temperature rather than acclimation of root respiration or substrate limitations. Methodological Issues: 5. The isotopic signatures of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are too similar for isotopic partitioning of belowground respiration into these two components at our site—in keeping with the recent findings of Bowling et al. (2015) in a subalpine conifer forest. 6. Artifacts of the trenching method, such as changes in soil moisture and increased carbon substrate from the newly severed roots, are significant and need to be quantified when determining daily to annual estimates of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. C. Effects of simulated exudates on priming of microbial decomposition: The stoichiometry of root exudates influences both the amount and the mechanism by which priming occurs. At low C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial efficiency. At high C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial biomass. D. Modeling with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2): 1. Incorporation of 13C tracking to create an isotopically-enabled Ecosystem Demography v2 model (ED2) 2. State-of-the-art parameter optimization methodology developed for improving ED2 model predictions and parameters. 3. Significantly improved model predictions of growth- and maintenance-related carbon fluxes and 13

  9. Managing coarse woody debris in forests of the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell T. Graham; Alan E. Harvey; Martin F. Jurgensen; Theresa B. Jain; Jonalea R. Tonn; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese

    1994-01-01

    Recommendations for managing coarse woody debris after timber harvest were developed for 14 habitat types, ranging from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) habitat types of Arizona to subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) habitat types of western Montana. Ectomycorrhizae were used as a bioindicator of healthy, productive forest soils....

  10. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  11. The Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE Model – Part 1: Model description and characterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Wolfe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE model, a vertically-resolved 1-D chemical transport model designed to probe the details of near-surface reactive gas exchange. CAFE integrates all key processes, including turbulent diffusion, emission, deposition and chemistry, throughout the forest canopy and mixed layer. CAFE utilizes the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM and is the first model of its kind to incorporate a suite of reactions for the oxidation of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes, providing a more comprehensive description of the oxidative chemistry occurring within and above the forest. We use CAFE to simulate a young Ponderosa pine forest in the Sierra Nevada, CA. Utilizing meteorological constraints from the BEARPEX-2007 field campaign, we assess the sensitivity of modeled fluxes to parameterizations of diffusion, laminar sublayer resistance and radiation extinction. To characterize the general chemical environment of this forest, we also present modeled mixing ratio profiles of biogenic hydrocarbons, hydrogen oxides and reactive nitrogen. The vertical profiles of these species demonstrate a range of structures and gradients that reflect the interplay of physical and chemical processes within the forest canopy, which can influence net exchange.

  12. Microplastic pollution in the surface waters of Italian Subalpine Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sighicelli, Maria; Pietrelli, Loris; Lecce, Francesca; Iannilli, Valentina; Falconieri, Mauro; Coscia, Lucia; Di Vito, Stefania; Nuglio, Simone; Zampetti, Giorgio

    2018-05-01

    Plastic debris incidence in marine environment was already highlighted in the early 1970s. Over the last decade, microplastic pollution in the environment has received increasing attention and is now an emerging research area. Many studies have focused on quantifying microplastic abundance in the marine environment, while there are relatively few data on microplastic occurrence in freshwater environment. Recent studies have reported high concentrations of microplastics in lakes and rivers, although the understanding of several factors influencing source, transport and fate is still limited. This study compares different lakes and the common factors, which could influence the occurrence and distribution of microplastics. The three subalpine lakes monitored include Lake Maggiore, Iseo and Garda. The selected sampling transects reflect the hydrologic conditions, the morphometric characteristics of these lakes, and other factors influencing the release of plastics debris in lakes. Particles of microplastics (plastic particles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

    2010-09-01

    Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

  14. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  15. Fuel load modeling from mensuration attributes in temperate forests in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maricela Morales-Soto; Marín Pompa-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    The study of fuels is an important factor in defining the vulnerability of ecosystems to forest fires. The aim of this study was to model a dead fuel load based on forest mensuration attributes from forest management inventories. A scatter plot analysis was performed and, from explanatory trends between the variables considered, correlation analysis was carried out...

  16. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

    2009-01-01

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

  17. Modelling and mapping the suitability of European forest formations at 1-km resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casalegno, Stefano; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Bastrup-Birk, Annemarie

    2011-01-01

    factors. Here, we used the bootstrap-aggregating machine-learning ensemble classifier Random Forest (RF) to derive a 1-km resolution European forest formation suitability map. The statistical model use as inputs more than 6,000 field data forest inventory plots and a large set of environmental variables...

  18. Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

    2007-01-01

    We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

  19. Assessing the Impact of Forest Change and Climate Variability on Dry Season Runoff by an Improved Single Watershed Approach: A Comparative Study in Two Large Watersheds, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiping Hou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest change have been published for centuries, yet partitioning the hydrological effects of forest change, climate variability and other factors in a large watershed remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a single watershed approach combining the modified double mass curve (MDMC and the time series multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX to separate the impact of forest change, climate variability and other factors on dry season runoff variation in two large watersheds in China. The Zagunao watershed was examined for the deforestation effect, while the Meijiang watershed was examined to study the hydrological impact of reforestation. The key findings are: (1 both deforestation and reforestation led to significant reductions in dry season runoff, while climate variability yielded positive effects in the studied watersheds; (2 the hydrological response to forest change varied over time due to changes in soil infiltration and evapotranspiration after vegetation regeneration; (3 changes of subalpine natural forests produced greater impact on dry season runoff than alteration of planted forests. These findings are beneficial to water resource and forest management under climate change and highlight a better planning of forest operations and management incorporated trade-off between carbon and water in different forests.

  20. Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Andrew D. Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog; Do-il Yoo; V. Alaric Sample

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a...

  1. Application of GIS to Empirical Windthrow Risk Model in Mountain Forested Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Krejci

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Norway spruce dominates mountain forests in Europe. Natural variations in the mountainous coniferous forests are strongly influenced by all the main components of forest and landscape dynamics: species diversity, the structure of forest stands, nutrient cycling, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services. This paper deals with an empirical windthrow risk model based on the integration of logistic regression into GIS to assess forest vulnerability to wind-disturbance in the mountain spruce forests of Šumava National Park (Czech Republic. It is an area where forest management has been the focus of international discussions by conservationists, forest managers, and stakeholders. The authors developed the empirical windthrow risk model, which involves designing an optimized data structure containing dependent and independent variables entering logistic regression. The results from the model, visualized in the form of map outputs, outline the probability of risk to forest stands from wind in the examined territory of the national park. Such an application of the empirical windthrow risk model could be used as a decision support tool for the mountain spruce forests in a study area. Future development of these models could be useful for other protected European mountain forests dominated by Norway spruce.

  2. Forest insurance market participants’ game behavior in China: An analysis based on tripartite dynamic game model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ma

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In forest insurance market, there are three main participants including the insurance company, the forest farmer and the government. As different participant has different benefit object, there will be a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants. The purpose of this paper is to make the game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market clear, and then to put forward some policy suggestions on the implementation of forest insurance from the view of game theory. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, the static game model between the insurance company and the forest farmer is set up. According to the result of static game model, it’s difficult to implement forest insurance without government. Secondly, the tripartite dynamic game model among the government, the insurance company and the forest farmer is proposed, and the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model is acquired. Finally, the behavioral characteristics of all participants are analyzed according to the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model. Findings: the government’s allowance will be an important positive factor to implement forest insurance. The loss of the insurance company, which the lower insurance premium brings, can be compensated by the allowance from the government. The more the government provides allowance, the more actively the insurance company will implement forest insurance at a low insurance premium. In this situation, the forest farmer will be more likely to purchase the forest insurance, then the scope of forest insurance implementation will expend. Originality/value: There is a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market. Based on the tripartite dynamic game model, to make the game relationship between each participant clear is conducive to the implementation of forest insurance market in China.

  3. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

  4. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  5. Modeling bidirectional reflectance of forests and woodlands using Boolean models and geometric optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahler, Alan H.; Jupp, David L. B.

    1990-01-01

    Geometric-optical discrete-element mathematical models for forest canopies have been developed using the Boolean logic and models of Serra. The geometric-optical approach is considered to be particularly well suited to describing the bidirectional reflectance of forest woodland canopies, where the concentration of leaf material within crowns and the resulting between-tree gaps make plane-parallel, radiative-transfer models inappropriate. The approach leads to invertible formulations, in which the spatial and directional variance provides the means for remote estimation of tree crown size, shape, and total cover from remotedly sensed imagery.

  6. Seasonal Changes in the Character and Nitrogen Content of Dissolved Organic Matter in an Alpine/Subalpine Headwater Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran W. Hood

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We are studying the chemical quality of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON in a high-elevation watershed in the Colorado Front Range. Samples were collected over the 2000 snowmelt runoff season at two sites across an alpine/subalpine ecotone to understand how the transition between the lightly vegetated alpine and forested reaches of the catchment influences the chemical character of DON. Samples were analyzed approximately weekly for dissolved organic material (DOM content and chemical character. A subset of samples was analyzed for the elemental content of fulvic and hydrophilic acids. Concentrations of DON at both sites were highest in the spring at the initiation of snowmelt, decreased during snowmelt, and increased again during the late summer and fall. In contrast, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC peaked on the ascending limb of the hydrograph and declined to seasonal minima on the descending limb of the hydrograph. The ratio of DOC:DON showed a seasonal shift at both sites with high values (40 to 55 during peak runoff in early summer and lower values (15 to 25 during low flows late in the runoff season. These results indicate that there was a seasonal change in the relative N content of DOM at both sites. Chemical fractionation of DOC showed that there were temporal and longitudinal changes in the chemical character of DOC. At the alpine site, the fulvic acid content of DOC decreased from 57% in June to 35% in September. The change in fulvic acid was less pronounced at the forested site, from 66% in June to 54% in September. Elemental analysis of fulvic and hydrophilic acids indicated that hydrophilic acids were N rich compared to fulvic acids. Additionally, fulvic and hydrophilic acids isolated at the alpine site had a lower C:N ratio than those isolated at the forested site. Similarly, the C:N ratio of organic acids at both sites was lower in September than in June during peak runoff. These differences appear to be a result

  7. Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Peggy E.; Alvarez, Otto; McKinney, Shawn T.; Li, Wenkai; Brooks, Matthew L.; Guo, Qinghua

    2017-01-01

    Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks.We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract

  8. Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.

  9. A molecular investigation of soil organic carbon composition across a subalpine catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Hsiao-Tieh; Lawrence, Corey R.; Winnick, Matthew J.; Bargar, John R.; Maher, Katharine

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and turnover are a critical component of the global carbon cycle. Mechanistic models seeking to represent these complex dynamics require detailed SOC compositions, which are currently difficult to characterize quantitatively. Here, we address this challenge by using a novel approach that combines Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and bulk carbon X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) to determine the abundance of SOC functional groups, using elemental analysis (EA) to constrain the total amount of SOC. We used this SOC functional group abundance (SOC-fga) method to compare variability in SOC compositions as a function of depth across a subalpine watershed (East River, Colorado, USA) and found a large degree of variability in SOC functional group abundances between sites at different elevations. Soils at a lower elevation are predominantly composed of polysaccharides, while soils at a higher elevation have more substantial portions of carbonyl, phenolic, or aromatic carbon. We discuss the potential drivers of differences in SOC composition between these sites, including vegetation inputs, internal processing and losses, and elevation-driven environmental factors. Although numerical models would facilitate the understanding and evaluation of the observed SOC distributions, quantitative and meaningful measurements of SOC molecular compositions are required to guide such models. Comparison among commonly used characterization techniques on shared reference materials is a critical next step for advancing our understanding of the complex processes controlling SOC compositions.

  10. Calcium induces long-term legacy effects in a subalpine ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urs Schaffner

    Full Text Available Human activities have transformed a significant proportion of the world's land surface, with profound effects on ecosystem processes. Soil applications of macronutrients such as nitrate, phosphorus, potassium or calcium are routinely used in the management of croplands, grasslands and forests to improve plant health or increase productivity. However, while the effects of continuous fertilization and liming on terrestrial ecosystems are well documented, remarkably little is known about the legacy effect of historical fertilization and liming events in terrestrial ecosystems and of the mechanisms involved. Here, we show that more than 70 years after the last application of lime on a subalpine grassland, all major soil and plant calcium pools were still significantly larger in limed than in unlimed plots, and that the resulting shift in the soil calcium/aluminium ratio continues to affect ecosystem services such as primary production. The difference in the calcium content of the vegetation and the topmost 10 cm of the soil in limed vs. unlimed plots amounts to approximately 19.5 g m(-2, equivalent to 16.3% of the amount that was added to the plots some 70 years ago. In contrast, plots that were treated with nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium fertilizer in the 1930s did not differ from unfertilized plots in any of the soil and vegetation characteristics measured. Our findings suggest that the long-term legacy effect of historical liming is due to long-term storage of added calcium in stable soil pools, rather than a general increase in nutrient availability. Our results demonstrate that single applications of calcium in its carbonated form can profoundly and persistently alter ecosystem processes and services in mountain ecosystems.

  11. Hydrologic flow path development varies by aspect during spring snowmelt in complex subalpine terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Ryan W.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Gooseff, Michael N.

    2018-01-01

    In many mountainous regions around the world, snow and soil moisture are key components of the hydrologic cycle. Preferential flow paths of snowmelt water through snow have been known to occur for years with few studies observing the effect on soil moisture. In this study, statistical analysis of the topographical and hydrological controls on the spatiotemporal variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) and soil moisture during snowmelt was undertaken at a subalpine forested setting with north, south, and flat aspects as a seasonally persistent snowpack melts. We investigated if evidence of preferential flow paths in snow can be observed and the effect on soil moisture through measurements of snow water equivalent and near-surface soil moisture, observing how SWE and near-surface soil moisture vary on hillslopes relative to the toes of hillslopes and flat areas. We then compared snowmelt infiltration beyond the near-surface soil between flat and sloping terrain during the entire snowmelt season using soil moisture sensor profiles. This study was conducted during varying snowmelt seasons representing above-normal, relatively normal, and below-normal snow seasons in northern Colorado. Evidence is presented of preferential meltwater flow paths at the snow-soil interface on the north-facing slope causing increases in SWE downslope and less infiltration into the soil at 20 cm depth; less association is observed in the near-surface soil moisture (top 7 cm). We present a conceptualization of the meltwater flow paths that develop based on slope aspect and soil properties. The resulting flow paths are shown to divert at least 4 % of snowmelt laterally, accumulating along the length of the slope, to increase the snow water equivalent by as much as 170 % at the base of a north-facing hillslope. Results from this study show that snow acts as an extension of the vadose zone during spring snowmelt and future hydrologic investigations will benefit from studying the snow and soil

  12. Errors in terrain-based model preditions caused by altered forest inventory plot locations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huei-Jin Wang; Stephen Prisley; Philip Radtke; John Coulston

    2012-01-01

    Forest modeling applications that cover large geographic area can benefit from the use of widely-held knowledge about relationships between forest attributes and topographic variables. A noteworthy example involved the coupling of field survey data from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program of USDA Forest Service with digital elevation model (DEM) data in...

  13. Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, B; Gomez, A; Mathys, L; Gardi, O; Schellenberger, A; Ginzler, C; Thürig, E

    2017-03-01

    Trees outside forest (TOF) can perform a variety of social, economic and ecological functions including carbon sequestration. However, detailed quantification of tree biomass is usually limited to forest areas. Taking advantage of structural information available from stereo aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning (ALS), this research models tree biomass using national forest inventory data and linear least-square regression and applies the model both inside and outside of forest to create a nationwide model for tree biomass (above ground and below ground). Validation of the tree biomass model against TOF data within settlement areas shows relatively low model performance (R 2 of 0.44) but still a considerable improvement on current biomass estimates used for greenhouse gas inventory and carbon accounting. We demonstrate an efficient and easily implementable approach to modelling tree biomass across a large heterogeneous nationwide area. The model offers significant opportunity for improved estimates on land use combination categories (CC) where tree biomass has either not been included or only roughly estimated until now. The ALS biomass model also offers the advantage of providing greater spatial resolution and greater within CC spatial variability compared to the current nationwide estimates.

  14. An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

    1999-01-01

    LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

  15. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  16. Forest evaporation models: Relationships between stand growth and evaporation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Maitre, David C

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between forest stand structure, growth and evaporation were analysed to determine whether forest evaporation can be estimated from stand growth data. This approach permits rapid assessment of the potential impacts of afforestation...

  17. Modelling of excess noise attnuation by grass and forest | Onuu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , guinea grass (panicum maximum) and forest which comprises iroko (milicia ezcelea) and white afara (terminalia superba) trees in the ratio of 2:1 approximately. Excess noise attenuation spectra have been plotted for the grass and forest for ...

  18. Modelling of radionuclide transport in forests: Review and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Schell, W.; Linkov, I.

    1997-01-01

    Ecological modeling is a powerful tool which can be used to synthesize information on the dynamic processes which occur in ecosystems. Models of radionuclide transport in forests were first constructed in the mid-1960's, when the consequences of global fallout from nuclear weapons tests and waste disposal in the environment were of great concern. Such models were developed based on site-specific experimental data and were designed to address local needs. These models had a limited applicability in evaluating distinct ecosystems and deposition scenarios. Given the scarcity of information, the same experimental data sets were often used both for model calibration and validation, an approach which clearly constitutes a methodological error. Even though the carry modeling attempts were far from being faultless, they established a useful conceptual approach in that they tried to capture general processes in ecosystems and thus had a holistic nature. Later, radioecological modeling attempted to reveal ecosystem properties by separating the component parts from the whole system, as an approach to simplification. This method worked well for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems, in which the biogeochemistry of radionuclide cycling is relatively well understood and can be influenced by fertilization. Several models have been successfully developed and applied to human dose evaluation and emergency response to contaminating events in agricultural lands

  19. Forest Productivity and Diversity: Using Ecological Theory and Landscape Models to Guide Sustainable Forest Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huston, M.A.

    1998-11-01

    Sustainable forest management requires maintaining or increasing ecosystem productivity, while preserving or restoring natural levels of biodiversity. Application of general concepts from ecological theory, along with use of mechanistic, landscape-based computer models, can contribute to the successful achievement of both of these objectives. Ecological theories based on the energetics and dynamics of populations can be used to predict the general distribution of individual species, the diversity of different types of species, ecosystem process rates and pool sizes, and patterns of spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a broad range of environmental conditions. This approach requires subdivision of total biodiversity into functional types of organisms, primarily because different types of organisms respond very differently to the spatial and temporal variation of environmental conditions on landscapes. The diversity of species of the same functional type (particularly among plants) tends to be highest at relatively low levels of net primary productivity, while the total number of different functional types (particularly among animals) tends to be highest at high levels of productivity (e.g., site index or potential net primary productivity). In general, the diversity of animals at higher trophic levels (e.g., predators) reaches its maximum at much higher levels of productivity than the diversity of lower trophic levels (e.g., plants). This means that a single environment cannot support high diversity of all types of organisms. Within the framework of the general patterns described above, the distributions, population dynamics, and diversity of organisms in specific regions can be predicted more precisely using a combination of computer simulation models and GIS data based on satellite information and ground surveys. Biophysical models that use information on soil properties, climate, and hydrology have been developed to predict how the abundance and spatial

  20. Forest disturbance spurs growth of modeling and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, A. C.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.; Curtis, P.

    2016-12-01

    As new opportunities for scientific exploration open, needs for data generate a drive for innovative developments of new research tools. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET) was enacted in 2007, continuous flux observations at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) since 2000. FASET is a large-scale ecological experiment testing the immediate and intermediate term effects of disturbance, and eventually, the role of succession and community composition on forest flux dynamics. Decades-long tree-level observations in the UMBS forest, combined with the long term flux observations allowed us to match the bottom-up accumulated response of individual trees with the top-down whole-plot response measured from the flux tower. However, data describing tree-level canopy structure and hydrological response over an entire plot were not readily available. Unintentionally, FASET became both a motivation and a test-bed for new research tools and approaches. We expanded the operation and analysis approach for a portable canopy LiDARfor 3-D measurements meter-scale canopy structure. We matched canopy LiDAR measurements with root measurements from ground penetrating radar. To study the hydrological effects of the disturbance, we instrumented a large number of trees with Granier-style sap flux sensors. We further developed an approach to use frequency domain reflectometry sensors for continuous measurements of tree water content. We developed an approach to combine plot census, allometry and sap-flux observations in a bottom-up fashion to compare with plot-level EC transpiration rates. We found that while the transpirational water demand in the disturbance plot increased, overall evapotranspiration decreased. This decrease, however, is not uniform across species. A new individual-plant to ecosystem scale hydrodynamic model (FETCH2) demonstrates how specific traits translate to intra-daily differences in plot-level transpiration dynamics.

  1. Modelling Associations between Public Understanding, Engagement and Forest Conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, Joel; Stevens, Forrest R.; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Congalton, Russell G.; Ducey, Mark J.; Oester, Paul T.

    2015-01-01

    Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals

  2. Modelling associations between public understanding, engagement and forest conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hartter

    Full Text Available Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of

  3. Forest volume-to-biomass models and estimates of mass for live and standing dead trees of U.S. forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Jennifer C. Jenkins

    2003-01-01

    Includes methods and equations for nationally consistent estimates of tree-mass density at the stand level (Mg/ha) as predicted by growing-stock volumes reported by the USDA Forest Service for forests of the conterminous United States. Developed for use in FORCARB, a carbon budget model for U.S. forests, the equations also are useful for converting plot-, stand- and...

  4. Modeled forest inventory data suggest climate benefits from fuels management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Jonathan. Sandquist

    2013-01-01

    As part of a recent synthesis addressing fuel management in dry, mixed-conifer forests we analyzed more than 5,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, a probability sample that represents 33 million acres of these forests throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and extreme northern California. We relied on the BioSum analysis framework that...

  5. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susannah B. Lerman; Keith H. Nislow; David J. Nowak; Stephen DeStefano; David I. King; D. Todd. Jones-Farrand

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat...

  6. Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

  7. Neural network modelling of rainfall interception in four different forest stands

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim Yurtseven; Mustafa Zengin

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to reveal whether it is possible to predict rainfall, throughfall and stemflow in forest ecosystems with less effort, using several measurements of rainfall interception (hereafter interception) and an artificial neural network based linear regression model (ANN model). To this end, the Kerpe Research Forest in the province of Kocaeli, which houses stands of mixed deciduous-broadleaf forest (Castanea sativa Mill., Fagus orientalis Lipsky, Quercus spp.), black pi...

  8. Equilibrium and non-equilibrium concepts in forest genetic modelling: population- and individually-based approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Kramer, Koen; van der Werf, D. C.

    2010-01-01

    The environment is changing and so are forests, in their functioning, in species composition, and in the species’ genetic composition. Many empirical and process-based models exist to support forest management. However, most of these models do not consider the impact of environmental changes and forest management on genetic diversity nor on the rate of adaptation of critical plant processes. How genetic diversity and rates of adaptation depend on management actions is a crucial next step in m...

  9. Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; L.J. Samuelson; T.A. Martin; W.P. Cropper Jr; Kurt Johnsen; T.A. Stokes; John Butnor; P.H. Anderson

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of forest carbon storage dynamics requires a variety of techniques including simulation models. We developed a hybrid model to assess the effects of silvicultural management systems on carbon (C) budgets in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations in the southeastern U.S. To simulate in situ C pools, the model integrates a growth and yield model...

  10. Potential of forest management to reduce French carbon emissions - regional modelling of the French forest carbon balance from the forest to the wood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Bellassen, V.; Vallet, P.

    2015-12-01

    In France the low levels of forest harvest (40 Mm3 per year over a volume increment of 89Mm3) is frequently cited to push for a more intensive management of the forest that would help reducing CO2 emissions. This reasoning overlooks the medium-to-long-term effects on the carbon uptake at the national scale that result from changes in the forest's structure and delayed emissions from products decay and bioenergy burning, both determinant for the overall C fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. To address the impacts of an increase in harvest removal on biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes at national scale, we build a consistent regional modeling framework to integrate the forest-carbon system from photosynthesis to wood uses. We aim at bridging the gap between regional ecosystem modeling and land managers' considerations, to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects of management strategies over C-based forest services: C-sequestration, energy and material provision, fossil fuel substitution. For this, we built on inventory data to develop a spatial forest growth simulator and design a novel method for diagnosing the current level of management based on stand characteristics (density, quadratic mean diameter or exploitability). The growth and harvest simulated are then processed with a life cycle analysis to account for wood transformation and uses. Three scenarii describe increases in biomass removals either driven by energy production target (set based on national prospective with a lock on minimum harvest diameters) or by changes in management practices (shorter or longer rotations, management of currently unmanaged forests) to be compared with business as usual simulations. Our management levels' diagnostics quantifies undermanagement at national scale and evidences the large weight of ownership-based undermanagement with an average of 26% of the national forest (between 10% and 40% per species) and thus represents a huge potential wood resource

  11. An Illustration of Generalised Arma (garma) Time Series Modeling of Forest Area in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Shitan, Mahendran

    Forestry is the art and science of managing forests, tree plantations, and related natural resources. The main goal of forestry is to create and implement systems that allow forests to continue a sustainable provision of environmental supplies and services. Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. Forest area of Malaysia has been observed over the years and it can be modeled using time series models. A new class of GARMA models have been introduced in the time series literature to reveal some hidden features in time series data. For these models to be used widely in practice, we illustrate the fitting of GARMA (1, 1; 1, δ) model to the Annual Forest Area data of Malaysia which has been observed from 1987 to 2008. The estimation of the model was done using Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm, Whittle's Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

  12. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  13. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  14. [Carbon storage of forest vegetation and allocation for main forest types in the east of Da-xing'an Mountains based on additive biomass model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Wei; Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

    2016-12-01

    Based on the biomass investigation data of main forest types in the east of Daxing'an Mountains, the additive biomass models of 3 main tree species were developed and the changes of carbon storage and allocation of forest community of tree layer, shrub layer, herb layer and litter layer from different forest types were discussed. The results showed that the carbon storage of tree layer, shrub layer, herb layer and litter layer for Rhododendron dauricum-Larix gmelinii forest was 71.00, 0.34, 0.05 and 11.97 t·hm -2 , respectively. Similarly, the carbon storage of the four layers of Ledum palustre-L. gmelinii forest was 47.82, 0.88, 0, 5.04 t·hm -2 , 56.56, 0.44, 0.04, 8.72 t·hm -2 for R. dauricum-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-Betula platyphylla, 46.21, 0.66, 0.07, 6.16 t·hm -2 for L. palustre-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla, 40.90, 1.37, 0.04, 3.67 t·hm -2 for R. dauricum-B. platyphylla forest, 36.28, 1.12, 0.18, 4.35 t·hm -2 for L. palustre-B. platyphylla forest. The carbon storage of forest community for the understory vegetation of R. dauricum was higher than that of the forest with L. palustre. In the condition of similar circumstances for the understory, the order of carbon storage for forest community was L. gmelinii forest > the mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla > B. platyphylla forest. The carbon storage of different forest types was different with the order of R. dauricum-L. gmelinii forest (83.36 t·hm -2 )> R. dauricum-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla (65.76 t·hm -2 ) > L. palustre-L. gmelinii forest (53.74 t·hm -2 )> L. palustre-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla (53.10 t·hm -2 )> R. dauricum-B. platyphylla forest (45.98 t·hm -2 ) > L. palustre-B. platyphylla forest (41.93 t·hm -2 ). The order of carbon storage for the vertical distribution in forest communities with diffe-rent forest types was the tree layer (85.2%-89.0%) > litter layer (8.0%-14.4%) > shrub layer (0.4%-2.7%) > herb layer (0-0.4%).

  15. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

    2006-08-01

    We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

  16. Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Dominik. Cullmann

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalized linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg...

  17. Tropical forest harvesting and taxation: a dynamic model of harvesting behavior under selective extraction systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Conrad; Malcolm Gillis; D. Evan Mercer

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic model of selective harvesting in multi-species,multi-age tropical forests is developed. Forests are predicted to exhibit different optimal harvesting profiles depending on the nature of their joint cost functions and own or cross-species stock effects. The model is applied to the controversy about incentives produced by various taxes. The impacts of specific...

  18. Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; L. Jay Roberts; Larry A. Leefers

    2006-01-01

    Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (...

  19. A forest model relevant to red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides Borealis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.C.G. Goelz; C.C. Rewerts; N.J. Hess

    2005-01-01

    Most forest models are created with timber production as the implied primacy. For many land managers, timber production is less important than production of habitat for wildlife. Red-cockaded woodpeckers (RCW) are one of the priorites for management of the forests at Ft. Benning army installation. To aid management, a model that integrates a red-cockaded woodpecker...

  20. Modelling the carbon budget of intensive forest monitoring sites in Germany using the simulation model BIOME-BGC

    OpenAIRE

    Jochheim, H.; Puhlmann, M.; Beese, F.; Berthold, D.; Einert, P.; Kallweit, R.; Konopatzky, A.; Meesenburg, H.; Meiwes, K.-J.; Raspe, S.; Schulte-Bisping, H.; Schulz, C.

    2008-01-01

    It is shown that by calibrating the simulation model BIOME-BGC with mandatory and optional Level II data, within the ICP Forest programme, a well-founded calculation of the carbon budget of forest stands is achievable and, based on succeeded calibration, the modified BIOME-BGC model is a useful tool to assess the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems. peerReviewed

  1. Subalpine Conifer Seedling Demographics: Species Responses to Climate Manipulations Across an Elevational Gradient at Niwot Ridge, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanha, C.; Germino, M. J.; Torn, M. S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Harte, J.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    The effect of climate change on future ranges of treeline species is poorly understood. For example, it is not known whether trees will recruit into the alpine, above the current treeline, and whether population-level differences in trees will mediate range shifts. At Niwot Ridge, Colorado, we used common gardens and climate manipulations to test predictions that warming will lead to greater recruitment at and beyond the cold edge of these species ranges, and will reduce recruitment at the warm edge. Seed from local populations of limber pine and Englemann spruce was harvested and reciprocally planted in 3 experimental sites spanning an elevation gradient from lower subalpine forest (10,000’), to the upper subalpine treeline ecotone (11,000’), to the alpine tundra (11,300’). In Fall 2009 seeds were sown into 20 plots at each site. Overhead infrared heaters targeted increases in growing season surface soil temperature of 4-5°C. The heating treatment, which began in October 2009, was crossed with manual watering, which was initiated following snowmelt in 2010. Over the 2010 growing season, we surveyed seedling germination and mortality weekly. Germination began in early May at the forest site, in early June at the krummholz site, and in early July at the alpine site. Depending on the site and plot, heating accelerated germination by 1 to 4 weeks. Seed source elevation, species, and site all affected germination, with effects for the two species also depending on site. At all sites, lower elevation, warm-edge populations had higher germination rates than high-elevation, cool-edge populations, indicating a potential bottleneck for germination of the high elevation seed sources in the adjacent alpine tundra. At all sites, survival was generally higher for pine than for spruce. Watering tended to enhance pine germinant survival while heating tended to depress spruce germinant survival. Our results indicate that the alpine tundra, generally considered an

  2. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  4. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  5. Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

  6. Development of lichen response indexes using a regional gradient modeling approach for large-scale monitoring of forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Will-Wolf; Peter Neitlich

    2010-01-01

    Development of a regional lichen gradient model from community data is a powerful tool to derive lichen indexes of response to environmental factors for large-scale and long-term monitoring of forest ecosystems. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service includes lichens in its national inventory of forests of...

  7. Modeling forest defoliation using simulated BRDF and assessing its effect on reflectance and sensor reaching radiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengarajan, Rajagopalan; Schott, John R.

    2016-09-01

    Remote sensing techniques such as change detection are widely used for mapping and monitoring forest cover to detect the declining health and vigor of forests. These techniques rely on the assumption that the biophysical variation in the forest introduces a corresponding variation in its reflectance. The biophysical variations are assessed by foresters, but these assessment techniques are expensive and cannot be performed frequently to identify a specific level of change in the forest, for example, infection due to gypsy moths that results in forest defoliation. Further, the interaction of atmosphere, sensor characteristics, and phenology that are inherent in the remotely sensed images makes it difficult to separate biophysical changes from observational effects. We have addressed these limitations by developing a method to model the spectral reflectance properties of forests with varying degrees of defoliation using the Digital Image and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) tool. This paper discusses the in-canopy radiative approach and the impact of defoliation on the reflectance and radiance observed by sensors such as Landsat. The results indicate that the relative variation in forest reflectance between a non-defoliated and a 30% defoliated deciduous forest can be as high as 10% in the NIR spectral band. A function can be fit to predict the level of defoliation from the relative variation in radiance. The modeling and analysis techniques can be extended to assess the impact of atmospheric factors and sensor characteristics relative to the biophysical changes as well as for assessing other biophysical variables in forests.

  8. Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H

    2009-01-01

    Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.

  9. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  10. Evapotranspiration and heat fluxes over a patchy forest - studied using modelling and measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sogachev, Andrey; Dellwik, Ebba; Boegh, Eva

    using these parameters without a proper interpretation in mesoscale or global circulation models can results in serious bias of estimates of modelled evapotranspiration or heat fluxes from given area. Since representative measurements focused on heterogeneous effects are scarce numerical modelling can...... and latent heat flux above forest downwind of a forest edge show these fluxes to be larger than the available energy over the forest (Klaassen et al. 2002, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 72, 231-243). Because such flux measurements are very often used for calibration of forest parameters or model constants, further......, Ecological. Appl. 18, 1454-1459). In the present work, we apply the SCADIS with enhanced turbulence closure including buoyancy for investigation of the spatial distribution of latent and sensible heat vertical fluxes over patchy forested terrain in Denmark during selected days in the summer period. A closer...

  11. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  12. IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  13. Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  14. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  15. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  16. CALIBRATION OF DISTRIBUTED SHALLOW LANDSLIDE MODELS IN FORESTED LANDSCAPES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gian Battista Bischetti

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In mountainous-forested soil mantled landscapes all around the world, rainfall-induced shallow landslides are one of the most common hydro-geomorphic hazards, which frequently impact the environment and human lives and properties. In order to produce shallow landslide susceptibility maps, several models have been proposed in the last decade, combining simplified steady state topography- based hydrological models with the infinite slope scheme, in a GIS framework. In the present paper, two of the still open issues are investigated: the assessment of the validity of slope stability models and the inclusion of root cohesion values. In such a perspective the “Stability INdex MAPping” has been applied to a small forested pre-Alpine catchment, adopting different calibrating approaches and target indexes. The Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions modality and three quantitative target indexes – the common Success Rate (SR, the Modified Success Rate (MSR, and a Weighted Modified Success Rate (WMSR herein introduced – are considered. The results obtained show that the target index can 34 003_Bischetti(569_23 1-12-2010 9:48 Pagina 34 significantly affect the values of a model’s parameters and lead to different proportions of stable/unstable areas, both for the Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions approach. The use of SR as the target index leads to an over-prediction of the unstable areas, whereas the use of MSR and WMSR, seems to allow a better discrimination between stable and unstable areas. The Multiple Calibration Regions approach should be preferred, using information on space distribution of vegetation to define the Regions. The use of field-based estimation of root cohesion and sliding depth allows the implementation of slope stability models (SINMAP in our case also without the data needed for calibration. To maximize the inclusion of such parameters into SINMAP, however, the assumption of a uniform distribution of

  17. Modelling recolonization of second-growth forest stands by the north american red squirrel Tamiasciurus hudsonicus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyquist, B; Tyson, R; Larsen, K

    2007-05-01

    In this paper, we present a model for source-sink population dynamics where the locations of source and sink habitats change over time. We do this in the context of the population dynamics of the North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, within a forest environment subject to harvesting and regrowth. Harvested patches of forest are initially sinks, then eventually become source habitat again as the forest regrows. At the same time, each harvested patch is gradually recolonized by squirrels from other forest patches. We are interested in the interaction of forest harvesting dynamics with squirrel population dynamics. This depends on the harvesting schedule, and on the choices squirrels make when deciding whether to settle in a mature forest patch or in a recently harvested patch. We find that the time it takes for a second-growth forest patch to be recolonized at the mature forest level is longer than the time required for the habitat quality to be restored to the mature forest level. We also notice that recolonization pressure decreases squirrel populations in neighbouring patches. The connectivity between forest patches and the cutting schedule used also affect the time course of recolonization and steady-state population levels.

  18. Keystone Species, Forest and Landscape: A Model to Select Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Daniela Barbosa da Silva; Gardon, Fernando Ravanini; Meyer, João Frederico da Costa Azevedo; Santos, Rozely Ferreira dos

    2017-06-01

    The selection of forest fragments for conservation is usually based on spatial parameters as forest size and canopy integrity. This strategy assumes that chosen fragments present high conservation status, ensuring biodiversity and ecological functions. We argue that a well-preserved forest fragment that remains connected by the landscape structure, does not necessarily hold attributes that ensure the presence of keystone species. We also discuss that the presence of keystone species does not always mean that it has the best conditions for its occurrence and maintenance. We developed a model to select areas in forest landscapes to be prioritized for protection based on suitability curves that unify and compare spatial indicators of three categories: forest fragment quality, landscape quality, and environmental conditions for the occurrence of a keystone species. We use a case study to compare different suitability degrees for Euterpe edulis presence, considered an important functional element in Atlantic Forest (São Paulo, Brazil) landscapes and a forest resource for local people. The results show that the identification of medium or advanced stage fragments as singular indicator of forest quality does not guarantee the existence or maintenance of this keystone species. Even in some well-preserved forest fragments, connected to others and with palm presence, the reverse J-shaped distribution of the population size structure is not sustained and these forests continue to be threatened due to human disturbances.

  19. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  20. Modeling belowground biomass of black cohosh, a medicinal forest product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Chamberlain; Gabrielle Ness; Christine Small; Simon Bonner; Elizabeth Hiebert

    2014-01-01

    Tens of thousands of kilograms of rhizomes and roots of Actaea racemosa L., a native Appalachian forest perennial, are harvested every year and used for the treatment of menopausal conditions. Sustainable management of this and other wild-harvested non-timber forest products requires the ability to effectively and reliably inventory marketable plant...

  1. Growth and yield model application in tropical rain forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Atta-Boateng; John W., Jr. Moser

    2000-01-01

    Analytical tools are needed to evaluate the impact of management policies on the sustainable use of rain forest. Optimal decisions concerning the level of management inputs require accurate predictions of output at all relevant input levels. Using growth data from 40 l-hectare permanent plots obtained from the semi-deciduous forest of Ghana, a system of 77 differential...

  2. Relating multifrequency radar backscattering to forest biomass: Modeling and AIRSAR measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guo-Qing; Ranson, K. Jon

    1992-01-01

    During the last several years, significant efforts in microwave remote sensing were devoted to relating forest parameters to radar backscattering coefficients. These and other studies showed that in most cases, the longer wavelength (i.e. P band) and cross-polarization (HV) backscattering had higher sensitivity and better correlation to forest biomass. This research examines this relationship in a northern forest area through both backscatter modeling and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data analysis. The field measurements were used to estimate stand biomass from forest weight tables. The backscatter model described by Sun et al. was modified to simulate the backscattering coefficients with respect to stand biomass. The average number of trees per square meter or radar resolution cell, and the average tree height or diameter breast height (dbh) in the forest stand are the driving parameters of the model. The rest of the soil surface, orientation, and size distributions of leaves and branches, remain unchanged in the simulations.

  3. Using maximum entropy modeling to identify and prioritize red spruce forest habitat in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan R. Beane; James S. Rentch; Thomas M. Schuler

    2013-01-01

    Red spruce forests in West Virginia are found in island-like distributions at high elevations and provide essential habitat for the endangered Cheat Mountain salamander and the recently delisted Virginia northern flying squirrel. Therefore, it is important to identify restoration priorities of red spruce forests. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify areas of...

  4. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Conservative Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST66)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that area at least 395 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER road files.

  5. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Liberal Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST33)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that are at least 75 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER roads files.

  6. Strategic management of five deciduous forest invaders using Microstegium vimineum as a model species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cynthia D. Huebner

    2007-01-01

    This paper links key plant invasive traits with key landscape traits to define strategic management for five common forest invaders, using empirical data of Microstegium vimineum dispersal into forests as a preliminary model. Microstegium vimineum exhibits an Allee effect that may allow management to focus on treating its source...

  7. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

  8. ShapeSelectForest: a new r package for modeling landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Meyer; Xiyue Liao; Gretchen Moisen; Elizabeth Freeman

    2015-01-01

    We present a new R package called ShapeSelectForest recently posted to the Comprehensive R Archival Network. The package was developed to fit nonparametric shape-restricted regression splines to time series of Landsat imagery for the purpose of modeling, mapping, and monitoring annual forest disturbance dynamics over nearly three decades. For each pixel and spectral...

  9. Modelling trends in soil solution concentrations under five forest-soil combinations in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salm, van der C.; Vries, de W.; Kros, J.

    1996-01-01

    The influence of forest and soil properties on changes in soil solution concentration upon a reduction deposition was examined for five forest-soil combinations with the dynamic RESAM model. Predicted concentrations decreased in the direction Douglas fir - Scotch pine - oak, due to decreased

  10. Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. S. Heath; R. A. Birdsey; D. W. Williams

    2002-01-01

    The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation...

  11. Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

    2018-02-01

    The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also

  12. The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

    2015-12-01

    Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

  13. Lithosequence of soils and associated vegetation on subalpine range of the Wasatch Plateau, Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James O. Klemmedson; Arthur R. Tiedemann

    1998-01-01

    On degraded subalpine range in Utah, the authors examined the role of soil and parent material nutrients and organic carbon (Corg) in the development of soil and plants on a transect across six strata that formed visible concentric alternating bands of high and low productivity. Relations for soil and parent material phosphorus (P) and sulfur (S) were of particular...

  14. Net primary productivity of subalpine meadows in Yosemite National Park in relation to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peggy E. Moore; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Julie L. Yee; Mitchel P. McClaran; David N. Cole; Neil K. McDougald; Matthew L. Brooks

    2013-01-01

    Subalpine meadows are some of the most ecologically important components of mountain landscapes, and primary productivity is important to the maintenance of meadow functions. Understanding how changes in primary productivity are associated with variability in moisture and temperature will become increasingly important with current and anticipated changes in climate....

  15. Integration of ground and satellite data to model Mediterranean forest processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiesi, M.; Fibbi, L.; Genesio, L.; Gioli, B.; Magno, R.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Vaccari, F. P.

    2011-06-01

    The current work presents the testing of a modeling strategy that has been recently developed to simulate the gross and net carbon fluxes of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The strategy is based on the use of a NDVI-driven parametric model, C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC, whose outputs are combined to simulate the behavior of forest ecosystems at different development stages. The performances of the modeling strategy are evaluated in three Italian study sites (San Rossore, Lecceto and Pianosa), where carbon fluxes are being measured through the eddy correlation technique. These sites are characterized by variable Mediterranean climates and are covered by different types of forest vegetation (pine wood, Holm oak forest and Macchia, respectively). The results of the tests indicate that the modeling strategy is generally capable of reproducing monthly GPP and NEE patterns in all three study sites. The highest accuracy is obtained in the most mature, homogenous pine wood of San Rossore, while the worst results are found in the Lecceto forest, where there are the most heterogeneous terrain, soil and vegetation conditions. The main error sources are identified in the inaccurate definition of the model inputs, particularly those regulating the site water budgets, which exert a strong control on forest productivity during the Mediterranean summer dry season. In general, the incorporation of NDVI-derived fAPAR estimates corrects for most of these errors and renders the forest flux simulations more stable and accurate.

  16. Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

    1991-01-01

    Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...

  17. Modelling long-term water yield effects of forest management in a Norway spruce forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Yu, X.; Lamačová, A.; Duffy, Ch.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub; White, T.; Bhatt, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2015), s. 174-191 ISSN 0262-6667 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Lysina critical zone observatory * PIHM * Norway spruce * forest management Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.182, year: 2015

  18. Sampling forest regeneration across northern U.S. forests: filling a void in regeneration model input

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. McWilliams; Charles D. Canham; Randall S. Morin; Katherine Johnson; Paul Roth; James A. Westfall

    2012-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the Northern Research Station (NRS-FIA) has implemented new Advance Tree Seedling Regeneration (ATSR) protocols that include measurements of seedlings down to 2 inches in height. The addition of ATSR protocols is part of an evaluation of NRS-FIA Phase 3 indicator variables to increase sampling intensity from 1/96,000 acres...

  19. Validation of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (v.5.1) against eddy covariance data for 10 European forest sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Collalti, A.; Marconi, S.; Ibrom, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performances of the new version (v.5.1) of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM) in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP), against eddy covariance GPP data for 10 FLUXNET forest sites across Europe. A new carbon allocation module, coupled with new both phenological...... over Europe without a site-related calibration, the model has been deliberately parametrized with a single set of species-specific parametrizations for each forest ecosystem. The model consistently reproduces both in timing and in magnitude daily and monthly GPP variability across all sites...... sites we evaluate whether a more accurate representation of forest structural characteristics (i.e. cohorts, forest layers) and species composition can improve model results. In two of the three sites results reveal that model slightly increases its performances although, statistically speaking...

  20. Towards Linking 3D SAR and Lidar Models with a Spatially Explicit Individual Based Forest Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Ranson, J.; Sun, G.; Armstrong, A. H.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based gap model (IBGM)for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica for the purpose of informing multisensor remote sensing techniques for above ground biomass techniques. The model was successfully parameterized and calibrated for the study site; results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. Though the simulated stem numbers (378) slightly underestimated the plot data (418), particularly for canopy dominant intermediate shade tolerant trees and shade tolerant understory trees, overall there was a 9.7% difference. Aboveground biomass (kg/ha) showed a 0.1% difference between the simulated forest and inventory plot dataset. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to parameterize a spatially explicit (3D) SAR and lidar backscatter models. The simulated forest stands were used to generate a Look Up Table as a tractable means to estimate aboveground forest biomass for these complex forests. Various combinations of lidar and radar variables were evaluated in the LUT inversion. To test the capability of future data for estimation of forest height and biomass, we considered data of 1) L- (or P-) band polarimetric data (backscattering coefficients of HH, HV and VV); 2) L-band dual-pol repeat-pass InSAR data (HH/HV backscattering coefficients and coherences, height of scattering phase center at HH and HV using DEM or surface height from lidar data as reference); 3) P-band polarimetric InSAR data (canopy height from inversion of PolInSAR data or use the coherences and height of scattering phase center at HH, HV and VV); 4) various height indices from waveform lidar data); and 5) surface and canopy top height from photon-counting lidar data. The methods for parameterizing the remote sensing models with the IBGM and developing Look Up Tables will be discussed. Results

  1. Including Effects of Water Stress on Dead Organic Matter Decay to a Forest Carbon Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S.; Son, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Decay of dead organic matter is a key process of carbon (C) cycling in forest ecosystems. The change in decay rate depends on temperature sensitivity and moisture conditions. The Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC) model includes a decay sub-model considering temperature sensitivity, yet does not consider moisture conditions as drivers of the decay rate change. This study aimed to improve the FBDC model by including a water stress function to the decay sub-model. Also, soil C sequestration under climate change with the FBDC model including the water stress function was simulated. The water stress functions were determined with data from decomposition study on Quercus variabilis forests and Pinus densiflora forests of Korea, and adjustment parameters of the functions were determined for both species. The water stress functions were based on the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Including the water stress function increased the explained variances of the decay rate by 19% for the Q. variabilis forests and 7% for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The increase of the explained variances resulted from large difference in temperature range and precipitation range across the decomposition study plots. During the period of experiment, the mean annual temperature range was less than 3°C, while the annual precipitation ranged from 720mm to 1466mm. Application of the water stress functions to the FBDC model constrained increasing trend of temperature sensitivity under climate change, and thus increased the model-estimated soil C sequestration (Mg C ha-1) by 6.6 for the Q. variabilis forests and by 3.1 for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The addition of water stress functions increased reliability of the decay rate estimation and could contribute to reducing the bias in estimating soil C sequestration under varying moisture condition. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korea Forest Service (2017044B10-1719-BB01)

  2. Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry

  3. National forest economic clusters: a new model for assessing national-forest-based natural resources products and services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas D. Rojas

    2007-01-01

    National forest lands encompass numerous rural and urban communities. Some national-forest-based communities lie embedded within national forests, and others reside just outside the official boundaries of national forests. The urban and rural communities within or near national forest lands include a wide variety of historical traditions and cultural values that affect...

  4. Management Models of Forest Resources in the Atlas Mountain ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    timber forest products are under-used. Governments are trying to improve the situation, but their efforts tend to be purely technical and fail to address the social and institutional dimensions of the problem. This project will examine ...

  5. Modeling the impacts of climate variability and hurricane on carbon sequestration in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Carl C. Trettin; Changsheng Li; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; Harbin Li

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of hurricane disturbance and climate variability on carbon dynamics in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina of USA were simulated using the Forest-DNDC model with a spatially explicit approach. The model was validated using the measured biomass before and after Hurricane Hugo and the biomass inventories in 2006 and 2007, showed that the Forest-DNDC...

  6. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    type parameter values are assigned and assumed invariant with environmental condition but also ii) these models use leaf N as a factor that limit photosynthesis. Instead, since leaf P may also limit photosynthesis of the tropical forest (Reich et al. 2009), we use a more specific description of photosynthetic capacity across the basin based on the model evaluation done in Mercado et al. (2009) in which canopy photosynthetic capacity is related to foliar P but also using the relationships derived between canopy photosynthesis and leaf nutrients (N and P) from measurements in tropical trees (Domingues et al.In review). A study of this kind can inform the global vegetation/climate community as to the need for variability in key model parameters in order to accurately simulate carbon fluxes across the Amazon basin. Baker, T. R., et al. 2004. Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 359 (1443):353-365. Phillips, O. L. et al. 2004. Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 359 (1443):381-407. Malhi, Y. et al. 2004. The above-ground coarse wood productivity of 104 Neotropical forest plots. Global Change Biology 10 (5):563-591. Mercado, L.M. et al. 2009. Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Nature 458 (7241), 1014. Cox, P. M. et al. 1998. A canopy conductance and photosynthesis model for use in a GCM land surface scheme. Journal of Hydrology 213 (1-4):79-9 Sitch, S. et al. 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology 9 (2):161-185. Reich B. R. et al. 2009. Leaf phosphorus influences the photosynhtesis-nitrogen relation: a cross-biome analysis of 314 species. Oecologia, doi 10.1007/s00442-009-1291-3. Domingues, T. et al. In review. Co-limitation of

  7. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  8. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  9. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  10. Use of generalized linear models and digital data in a forest inventory of Northern Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisen, Gretchen G.; Edwards, Thomas C.

    1999-01-01

    Forest inventories, like those conducted by the Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) in the Rocky Mountain Region, are under increased pressure to produce better information at reduced costs. Here we describe our efforts in Utah to merge satellite-based information with forest inventory data for the purposes of reducing the costs of estimates of forest population totals and providing spatial depiction of forest resources. We illustrate how generalized linear models can be used to construct approximately unbiased and efficient estimates of population totals while providing a mechanism for prediction in space for mapping of forest structure. We model forest type and timber volume of five tree species groups as functions of a variety of predictor variables in the northern Utah mountains. Predictor variables include elevation, aspect, slope, geographic coordinates, as well as vegetation cover types based on satellite data from both the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Thematic Mapper (TM) platforms. We examine the relative precision of estimates of area by forest type and mean cubic-foot volumes under six different models, including the traditional double sampling for stratification strategy. Only very small gains in precision were realized through the use of expensive photointerpreted or TM-based data for stratification, while models based on topography and spatial coordinates alone were competitive. We also compare the predictive capability of the models through various map accuracy measures. The models including the TM-based vegetation performed best overall, while topography and spatial coordinates alone provided substantial information at very low cost.

  11. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  12. Evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach for computational snow avalanche simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teich, M.; Feistl, T.; Fischer, J.; Bartelt, P.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2013-12-01

    Two-dimensional avalanche simulation software operating in three-dimensional terrain are widely used for hazard zoning and engineering to predict runout distances and impact pressures of snow avalanche events. Mountain forests are an effective biological protection measure; however, the protective capacity of forests to decelerate or even to stop avalanches that start within forested areas or directly above the treeline is seldom considered in this context. In particular, runout distances of small- to medium-scale avalanches are strongly influenced by the structural conditions of forests in the avalanche path. This varying decelerating effect has rarely been addressed or implemented in avalanche simulation. We present an evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach implemented in the avalanche simulation software RAMMS. The new approach accounts for the effect of forests in the avalanche path by detraining mass, which leads to a deceleration and runout shortening of avalanches. The extracted avalanche mass caught behind trees stops immediately and, therefore, is instantly subtracted from the flow and the momentum of the stopped mass is removed from the total momentum of the avalanche flow. This relationship is parameterized by the empirical detrainment coefficient K [Pa] which accounts for the braking power of different forest types per unit area. To define K dependent on specific forest characteristics, we simulated 40 well-documented small- to medium-scale avalanches which released in and ran through forests with varying K-values. Comparing two-dimensional simulation results with one-dimensional field observations for a high number of avalanche events and simulations manually is however time consuming and rather subjective. In order to process simulation results in a comprehensive and standardized way, we used a recently developed automatic evaluation and comparison method defining runout distances based on a pressure

  13. Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medler, Michael Johns

    Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy

  14. MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ahmadlou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

  15. Measuring and modeling carbon balance in mountainous Northern Rocky mixed conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; Stenzel, J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought and wildfire caused by changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, increased fuel loads, and decades of fire suppression are reducing forest carbon uptake from local to continental scales. This trend is especially widespread in Idaho and the intermountain west and has important implications for climate change and forest management options. Given the key role of forests in climate regulation, understanding forest response to drought and the feedbacks to the atmosphere is a key research and policy-relevant priority globally. As temperature, fire, and precipitation regimes continue to change and there is increased risk of forest mortality, measurements and modeling at temporal and spatial scales that are conducive to understanding the impacts and underlying mechanisms of carbon and nutrient cycling become critically important. Until recently, sub-daily measurements of ecosystem carbon balance have been limited in remote, mountainous terrain (e.g Northern Rocky mountain forests). Here, we combine new measurement technology and state-of-the-art ecosystem modeling to determine the impact of drought on the total carbon balance of a mature, mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho. Our findings indicate that drought had no impact on aboveground NPP, despite early growing season reductions in soil moisture and fine root biomass compared to non-drought years in the past. Modeled estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest that a simultaneous reduction in heterotrophic respiration increased the carbon sink for this forest. This has important implications for forest management, such as thinning where the objectives are to increase forest resilience to fire and drought, but may decrease NEP.

  16. Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

    1984-01-01

    The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

  17. A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

  18. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, ... This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. ..... For qualitative variables, it uses the.

  19. Testing of models of stomatal ozone fluxes with field measurements in a mixed Mediterranean forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fares, S.; Matteucci, G.; Mugnozza, S.; Morani, A.; Calfapietra, Carlo; Salvatori, E.; Fusaro, L.; Manes, F.; Loreto, F.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 67, MAR (2013), s. 242-251 ISSN 1352-2310 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Ozone fluxes * Stomatal conductance models * GPP * Mediterranean forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.062, year: 2013

  20. Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

    2010-01-01

    Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

  1. Evaluating the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China based on FAREAST model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shanshan; Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H.; Yan, Xiaodong

    2018-03-01

    Mountain forests provide the main water resources and lumber for Northwest China. The understanding of the differences in forests growing among individual slope aspects in mountainous regions is of great significance to the wise management and planning of these natural systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China by using the dynamic forest succession model (FAREAST). First, the simulated forest composition and vertical forest zonation produced by the model were compared against recorded data in three sub-regions of the Altai Mountains. The FAREAST model accurately reproduced the vertical zonation, forest composition, growth curves of the dominant species (Larix sibirica), and forest biomass in the Altai Mountains. Transitions along the forest zones of the Altai Mountains averaged about a 400 m difference between the northern and southern sites. Biomass for forests on north-facing slopes were 11.0, 15.3 and 55.9 t C ha-1 higher than for south-facing slopes in the Northeast, Central and Southeast sub-regions, respectively. Second, our analyses showed that the FAREAST model can be used to predict dynamic forest succession in Northwest China under the influence of slope and aspect. In the Altai Mountains, the north-facing slopes supported the best forest growth, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes. South-facing slopes consistently exhibited the lowest growth, biomass storage and forest diversity.

  2. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  3. Quantification of Groundwater Discharge in a Subalpine Stream Using Radon-222

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Avery

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the dry months of the water year in Mediterranean climates, groundwater influx is essential to perennial streams for sustaining ecosystem health and regulating water temperature. Predicted earlier peak flow due to climate change may result in decreased baseflow and the transformation of perennial streams to intermittent streams. In this study, naturally occurring radon-222 (222Rn was used as a tracer of groundwater influx to Martis Creek, a subalpine stream near Lake Tahoe, CA. Groundwater 222Rn is estimated based on measurements of 222Rn activity in nearby deep wells and springs. To determine the degassing constant (needed for quantification of water and gas flux, an extrinsic tracer, xenon (Xe, was introduced to the stream and monitored at eight downstream locations. The degassing constant for 222Rn is based on the degassing constant for Xe, and was determined to be 1.9–9.0 m/day. Applying a simple model in which stream 222Rn activity is a balance between the main 222Rn source (groundwater and sink (volatilization, the influx in reaches of the upstream portion of Martis Creek was calculated to be <1 to 15 m3/day/m, which cumulatively constitutes a significant portion of the stream discharge. Experiments constraining 222Rn emanation from hyporheic zone sediments suggest that this should be considered a maximum rate of influx. Groundwater influx is typically difficult to identify and quantify, and the method employed here is useful for identifying locations for focused stream flow measurements, for formulating a water budget, and for quantifying streamwater–groundwater interaction.

  4. A hydroeconomic modeling framework for optimal integrated management of forest and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Prats, Alberto; del Campo, Antonio D.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydroeconomic modeling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield in the stands (increase in groundwater recharge) induced by forest management and the value of the additional water provided to the system. The model determines the optimal schedule of silvicultural interventions in the stands of the catchment in order to maximize the total net benefit in the system. Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs according to stand density and canopy cover were modeled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. In order to illustrate the presented modeling framework, a case study was carried out in a planted pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) located in south-western Valencia province (Spain). The optimized scenario increased groundwater recharge. This novel modeling framework can be used in the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which water beneficiaries could contribute to fund and promote efficient forest management operations.

  5. Light Competition and Carbon Partitioning-Allocation in an improved Forest Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collalti, Alessio; Santini, Monia; Valentini Valentini, Riccardo

    2010-05-01

    In Italy about 100.000 km2 are covered by forests. This surface is the 30% of the whole national land and this shows how the forests are important both for socio-economic and for environmental aspects. Forests changes affect a delicate balance that involve not only vegetation components but also bio-geochemical cycles and global climate. The knowledge of the amount of Carbon sequestered by forests represents a precious information for their sustainable management in the framework of climate changes. Primary studies in terms of model about this important issue, has been done through Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM), well known and validated as 3PG (Landsberg et Waring, 1997; Sands 2004). It is based on light use efficiency approach at the canopy level. The present study started from the original model 3PG, producing an improved version that uses many of explicit formulations of all relevant ecophysiological processes but makes it able to be applied for natural forests. The mutual interaction of forest growth and light conditions causes vertical and horizontal differentiation in the natural forest mosaic. Only ecophysiological parameters which can be either directly measured or estimates with reasonable certainty are used. The model has been written in C language and has been created considering a tri-dimensional cell structure with different vertical layers depending on the forest type that has to be simulated. This 3PG 'improved' version enable to work on multi-layer and multi-species forests type with cell resolution of one hectare for the typical Italian forest species. The multi-layer version is the result of the implementation and development of Lambert-Beer law for the estimation of intercepted, absorbed and transmitted light through different storeys of the forest. It is possible estimates, for each storey, a Par value (Photosynthetic Active Radiation) through Leaf Area Index (LAI), Light Extinction Coefficient and cell Canopy Cover using a "Big Leaf" approach

  6. Assessing heat fluxes and water quality trends in subalpine lakes from EO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzaniga, Ilaria; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano; Elli, Chiara; Valerio, Giulia; Pilotti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Lakes play a fundamental role in providing ecosystem services such as water supplying, hydrological regulation, climate change mitigation, touristic recreation (Schallenberg et al., 2013). Preserving and improving of quality of lakes waters, which is a function of either both natural and human influences, is therefore an important action to be considered. Remote Sensing techniques are spreading as useful instrument for lakes, by integrating classical in situ limnological measurements to frequent and synoptic monitoring capabilities. Within this study, Earth Observation data are exploited for understanding the temporal changes of water quality parameters over a decade, as well as for measuring the surface energy fluxes in recent years in deep clear lakes in the European subalpine ecoregion. According to Pareth et al. (2016), subalpine lakes are showing a clear response to climate change with an increase of 0.017 °C /year of lake surface temperature, whilst the human activities contribute to produce a large impact (agriculture, recreation, industry, fishing and drinking) on these lakes. The investigation is focused on Lake Iseo, which has shown a significant deterioration of water quality conditions since the seventies, and on Lake Garda, the largest Italian lake where EO data have been widely used for many purposes and applications (Giardino et al., 2014). Available ENVISAT-MERIS (2002-2012) and Landsat-8-OLI (2013-on going) imagery has been exploited to produce chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration maps, while Landsat-8-TIRS imagery has been used for estimating lake surface temperatures. MERIS images were processed through a neural network (namely the C2R processor, Doerffer et al., 2007), to correct the atmospheric effects and to retrieve water constituents concentration in optically complex deep waters. With regard to L8's images, some atmospheric correctors (e.g. ACOLITE and 6SV) were tested and validated to indentify, for each of the two lakes, the more accurate

  7. Final Progress Report on Model-Based Diagnosis of Soil Limitations to Forest Productivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxmoore, R.J.

    2004-08-30

    This project was undertaken in support of the forest industry to link modeling of nutrients and productivity with field research to identify methods for enhancing soil quality and forest productivity and for alleviating soil limitations to sustainable forest productivity. The project consisted of a series of related tasks, including (1) simulation of changes in biomass and soil carbon with nitrogen fertilization, (2) development of spreadsheet modeling tools for soil nutrient availability and tree nutrient requirements, (3) additional modeling studies, and (4) evaluation of factors involved in the establishment and productivity of southern pine plantations in seasonally wet soils. This report also describes the two Web sites that were developed from the research to assist forest managers with nutrient management of Douglas-fir and loblolly pine plantations.

  8. To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

  9. A study on the use and modeling of geographical information system for combating forest crimes: an assessment of crimes in the eastern Mediterranean forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Mehmet; Gülci, Sercan; Okumuş, Arif

    2018-01-06

    This study focuses on the geo-statistical assessment of spatial estimation models in forest crimes. Used widely in the assessment of crime and crime-dependent variables, geographic information system (GIS) helps the detection of forest crimes in rural regions. In this study, forest crimes (forest encroachment, illegal use, illegal timber logging, etc.) are assessed holistically and modeling was performed with ten different independent variables in GIS environment. The research areas are three Forest Enterprise Chiefs (Baskonus, Cinarpinar, and Hartlap) affiliated to Kahramanmaras Forest Regional Directorate in Kahramanmaras. An estimation model was designed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods, which are often used in spatial association. Three different models were proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the estimation model. The use of variables with a variance inflation factor (VIF) value of lower than 7.5 in Model I and lower than 4 in Model II and dependent variables with significant robust probability values in Model III are associated with forest crimes. Afterwards, the model with the lowest corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ), and the highest R 2 value was selected as the comparison criterion. Consequently, Model III proved to be more accurate compared to other models. For Model III, while AIC c was 328,491 and R 2 was 0.634 for OLS-3 model, AIC c was 318,489 and R 2 was 0.741 for GWR-3 model. In this respect, the uses of GIS for combating forest crimes provide different scenarios and tangible information that will help take political and strategic measures.

  10. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  11. Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow

    2001-01-01

    A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...

  12. Polarimetric SAR Interferometry based modeling for tree height and aboveground biomass retrieval in a tropical deciduous forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Shashi; Khati, Unmesh G.; Chandola, Shreya; Agrawal, Shefali; Kushwaha, Satya P. S.

    2017-08-01

    The regulation of the carbon cycle is a critical ecosystem service provided by forests globally. It is, therefore, necessary to have robust techniques for speedy assessment of forest biophysical parameters at the landscape level. It is arduous and time taking to monitor the status of vast forest landscapes using traditional field methods. Remote sensing and GIS techniques are efficient tools that can monitor the health of forests regularly. Biomass estimation is a key parameter in the assessment of forest health. Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) remote sensing has already shown its potential for forest biophysical parameter retrieval. The current research work focuses on the retrieval of forest biophysical parameters of tropical deciduous forest, using fully polarimetric spaceborne C-band data with Polarimetric SAR Interferometry (PolInSAR) techniques. PolSAR based Interferometric Water Cloud Model (IWCM) has been used to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). Input parameters to the IWCM have been extracted from the decomposition modeling of SAR data as well as PolInSAR coherence estimation. The technique of forest tree height retrieval utilized PolInSAR coherence based modeling approach. Two techniques - Coherence Amplitude Inversion (CAI) and Three Stage Inversion (TSI) - for forest height estimation are discussed, compared and validated. These techniques allow estimation of forest stand height and true ground topography. The accuracy of the forest height estimated is assessed using ground-based measurements. PolInSAR based forest height models showed enervation in the identification of forest vegetation and as a result height values were obtained in river channels and plain areas. Overestimation in forest height was also noticed at several patches of the forest. To overcome this problem, coherence and backscatter based threshold technique is introduced for forest area identification and accurate height estimation in non-forested regions. IWCM based modeling for forest

  13. Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabst, R.J.; Goslin, M.N.; Garman, S.L.; Spies, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate

  14. Earthworms, arthropods and plant litter decomposition in aspen (Populus tremuloides) and lodgepole pine(Pinus contorta) forests in Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grizelle Gonzalez; Timothy R. Seastedt; Zugeily Donato

    2003-01-01

    We compared the abundance and community composition of earthworms, soil macroarthropods, and litter microarthropods to test faunal effects on plant litter decomposition rates in two forests in the subalpine in Colorado, USA. Litterbags containing recently senesced litter of Populus tremuloides (aspen) and Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine) were placed in aspen and pine...

  15. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  16. Individual-Tree Diameter Growth Models for Mixed Nothofagus Second Growth Forests in Southern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo C. Moreno

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Second growth forests of Nothofagus obliqua (roble, N. alpina (raulí, and N. dombeyi (coihue, known locally as RORACO, are among the most important native mixed forests in Chile. To improve the sustainable management of these forests, managers need adequate information and models regarding not only existing forest conditions, but their future states with varying alternative silvicultural activities. In this study, an individual-tree diameter growth model was developed for the full geographical distribution of the RORACO forest type. This was achieved by fitting a complete model by comparing two variable selection procedures: cross-validation (CV, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO regression. A small set of predictors successfully explained a large portion of the annual increment in diameter at breast height (DBH growth, particularly variables associated with competition at both the tree- and stand-level. Goodness-of-fit statistics for this final model showed an empirical coefficient of correlation (R2emp of 0.56, relative root mean square error of 44.49% and relative bias of −1.96% for annual DBH growth predictions, and R2emp of 0.98 and 0.97 for DBH projection at 6 and 12 years, respectively. This model constitutes a simple and useful tool to support management plans for these forest ecosystems.

  17. [Estimation of forest canopy chlorophyll content based on PROSPECT and SAIL models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xi-guang; Fan, Wen-yi; Yu, Ying

    2010-11-01

    The forest canopy chlorophyll content directly reflects the health and stress of forest. The accurate estimation of the forest canopy chlorophyll content is a significant foundation for researching forest ecosystem cycle models. In the present paper, the inversion of the forest canopy chlorophyll content was based on PROSPECT and SAIL models from the physical mechanism angle. First, leaf spectrum and canopy spectrum were simulated by PROSPECT and SAIL models respectively. And leaf chlorophyll content look-up-table was established for leaf chlorophyll content retrieval. Then leaf chlorophyll content was converted into canopy chlorophyll content by Leaf Area Index (LAD). Finally, canopy chlorophyll content was estimated from Hyperion image. The results indicated that the main effect bands of chlorophyll content were 400-900 nm, the simulation of leaf and canopy spectrum by PROSPECT and SAIL models fit better with the measured spectrum with 7.06% and 16.49% relative error respectively, the RMSE of LAI inversion was 0. 542 6 and the forest canopy chlorophyll content was estimated better by PROSPECT and SAIL models with precision = 77.02%.

  18. Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo-Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portik, Daniel M; Leaché, Adam D; Rivera, Danielle; Barej, Michael F; Burger, Marius; Hirschfeld, Mareike; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Blackburn, David C; Fujita, Matthew K

    2017-10-01

    The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model-testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species-specific and related to life-history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. A three-dimensional stochastic model of the behavior of radionuclides in forests. Part 2. Cs-137 behavior in forest soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, Mitchell T.; Shuman, Larry J.

    1995-01-01

    Using a three-dimensional stochastic model of radionuclides in forests developed in Part 1, this work simulates the long-term behavior of Cs-137 in forest soil. It is assumed that the behavior of Cs-137 in soils is driven by its advection and dispersion due to the infiltration of the soil solution, and its sorption to the soil matrix. As Cs-137 transport through soils is affected by its uptake and release by forest vegetation, a model of radiocesium behavior in forest vegetation is presented in Part 3 of this paper. To estimate the rate of infiltration of water through the soil, models are presented to estimate the hydrological cycle of the forest including infiltration, evapotranspiration, and the root uptake of water. The state transition probabilities for the random walk model of Cs-137 transport are then estimated using the models developed to predict the distribution of water in the forest. The random walk model is then tested using a base line scenario in which Cs-137 is deposited into a coniferous forest ecosystem

  20. Mapping Forest Fire Susceptibility in Temperate Mountain Areas with Expert Knowledge. A Case Study from Iezer Mountains, Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Bogdan; Savulescu, Ionut

    2014-05-01

    Forest fires in Romanian Carpathians became a frequent phenomenon during the last decade, although local climate and other environmental features did not create typical conditions. From 2004, forest fires affect in Romania more than 100 hectares/year of different forest types (deciduous and coniferous). Their magnitude and frequency are not known, since a historical forest fire inventory does not exist (only press papers and local witness for some selected events). Forest fires features the summer dry periods but there are dry autumns and early winter periods with events of different magnitudes. The application we propose is based on an empirical modeling of forest fire susceptibility in a typical mountain area from the Southern Carpathians, the Iezer Mountains (2462 m). The study area features almost all the altitudinal vegetation zones of the European temperate mountains, from the beech zone, to the coniferous zone, the subalpine and the alpine zones (Mihai et al., 2007). The analysis combines GIS and remote sensing models (Chuvieco et al., 2012), starting from the ideas that forest fires are featured by the ignition zones and then by the fire propagation zones. The first data layer (ignition zones) is the result of the crossing between the ignition factors: lightning - points of multitemporal occurence and anthropogenic activities (grazing, tourism and traffic) and the ignition zones (forest fuel zonation - forest stands, soil cover and topoclimatic factor zonation). This data is modelled from different sources: the MODIS imagery fire product (Hantson et al., 2012), detailed topographic maps, multitemporal orthophotos at 0.5 m resolution, Landsat multispectral imagery, forestry cadastre maps, detailed soil maps, meteorological data (the WorldClim digital database) as well as the field survey (mapping using GPS and local observation). The second data layer (fire propagation zones) is the result of the crossing between the forest fuel zonation, obtained with the

  1. Empirical models of monthly and annual surface albedo in managed boreal forests of Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Astrup, Rasmus; Strømman, Anders H.

    2013-04-01

    As forest management activities play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation strategies of Nordic regions such as Norway, Sweden, and Finland -- the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the types and magnitude of biogeophysical climate effects and their various tradeoffs with the global carbon cycle becomes essential to avoid implementation of sub-optimal policy. Forest harvest in these regions reduces the albedo "masking effect" and impacts Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways to that of concomitant carbon cycle perturbations; thus, policies based solely on biogeochemical considerations in these regions risk being counterproductive. There is therefore a need to better understand how human disturbances (i.e., forest management activities) affect important biophysical factors like surface albedo. An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway's most productive logging region are used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in monthly and annual forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species and site indices (productivity), and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential plus modifier approach. This resulted in an annual albedo model with statistically significant parameters that explains a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring as few as two predictor variables: i) average stand age - a canopy modifier predictor of albedo, and ii) stand elevation - a local climate predictor of a forest's potential albedo. The same model structure is used to derive monthly albedo models, with models for winter months generally found superior to summer models, and conifer models generally outperforming deciduous. We demonstrate how these statistical models can be applied to routine forest inventory data to predict the albedo

  2. Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

    2005-01-01

    The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

  3. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  4. Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to test the sensitivity of water yield to forest thinning and other forest management/disturbances and climate across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Leaf area index (LAI) was selected as a key parameter linking changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions. We used the Water Supply Stress Index model to examine water yield...

  5. Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2015-01-01

    Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

  6. Modeling light use efficiency in a subtropical mangrove forest equipped with CO2 eddy covariance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Barr

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of mangrove ecosystems in the global carbon budget, the relationships between environmental drivers and carbon dynamics in these forests remain poorly understood. This limited understanding is partly a result of the challenges associated with in situ flux studies. Tower-based CO2 eddy covariance (EC systems are installed in only a few mangrove forests worldwide, and the longest EC record from the Florida Everglades contains less than 9 years of observations. A primary goal of the present study was to develop a methodology to estimate canopy-scale photosynthetic light use efficiency in this forest. These tower-based observations represent a basis for associating CO2 fluxes with canopy light use properties, and thus provide the means for utilizing satellite-based reflectance data for larger scale investigations. We present a model for mangrove canopy light use efficiency utilizing the enhanced green vegetation index (EVI derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS that is capable of predicting changes in mangrove forest CO2 fluxes caused by a hurricane disturbance and changes in regional environmental conditions, including temperature and salinity. Model parameters are solved for in a Bayesian framework. The model structure requires estimates of ecosystem respiration (RE, and we present the first ever tower-based estimates of mangrove forest RE derived from nighttime CO2 fluxes. Our investigation is also the first to show the effects of salinity on mangrove forest CO2 uptake, which declines 5% per each 10 parts per thousand (ppt increase in salinity. Light use efficiency in this forest declines with increasing daily photosynthetic active radiation, which is an important departure from the assumption of constant light use efficiency typically applied in satellite-driven models. The model developed here provides a framework for estimating CO2 uptake by these forests from reflectance data and

  7. Improving snow cover mapping in forests through the use of a canopy reflectance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, A.G.; Hall, D.K.; Riggs, G.A.

    1998-01-01

    MODIS, the moderate resolution imaging spectro radiometer, will be launched in 1998 as part of the first earth observing system (EOS) platform. Global maps of land surface properties, including snow cover, will be created from MODIS imagery. The MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm that will be used to produce daily maps of global snow cover extent at 500 m resolution is currently under development. With the exception of cloud cover, the largest limitation to producing a global daily snow cover product using MODIS is the presence of a forest canopy. A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) time-series of the southern Boreal Ecosystem–Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) study area in Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan, was used to evaluate the performance of the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm in varying forest types. A snow reflectance model was used in conjunction with a canopy reflectance model (GeoSAIL) to model the reflectance of a snow-covered forest stand. Using these coupled models, the effects of varying forest type, canopy density, snow grain size and solar illumination geometry on the performance of the MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm were investigated. Using both the TM images and the reflectance models, two changes to the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm are proposed that will improve the algorithm's classification accuracy in forested areas. The improvements include using the normalized difference snow index and normalized difference vegetation index in combination to discriminate better between snow-covered and snow-free forests. A minimum albedo threshold of 10% in the visible wavelengths is also proposed. This will prevent dense forests with very low visible albedos from being classified incorrectly as snow. These two changes increase the amount of snow mapped in forests on snow-covered TM scenes, and decrease the area incorrectly identified as snow on non-snow-covered TM scenes. (author)

  8. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  9. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Deposition to forests in Europe: most important factors influencing dry deposition and models used for generalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, Jan Willem; Draaijers, Geert

    2003-01-01

    The influence of forest characteristics on deposition can be modelled reasonably well; forest edge effects and dynamical processes are still uncertain. - Dry deposition of gases and particles to forests is influenced by factors influencing the turbulent transport, such as wind speed, tree height, canopy closure, LAI, etc. as well as by factors influencing surface condition, such as precipitation, relative humidity, global radiation, etc. In this paper, an overview of these factors is given and it is shown which are the most important determining temporal and spatial variation of dry deposition of sodium and sulphur. Furthermore, it is evaluated how well current deposition models are able to describe the temporal and spatial variation in dry deposition. It is concluded that the temporal variation is not modelled well enough, because of limited surface-wetness exchange parameterisations. The influence of forest characteristics are modelled reasonably well, provided enough data describing the forests and the spatial variation in concentration is available. For Europe these data are not available. The means to decrease the atmospheric deposition through forest management is discussed

  11. Home range and diet of feral cats in Hawaii forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smucker, T.D.; Lindsey, G.D.; Mosher, S.M.

    2000-01-01

    Feral cat Felis catus home range in a Hawaiian montane wet forest and their diet in three habitats - montane wet forest, subalpine dry forest, and lowland dry forest - were determined to provide baseline ecological data and to assess potential impacts to native terrestrial fauna. Seven cats (three males and four females) were captured in 624 trap nights. Mean weight of adult cats was 2.85 ?? 0.27 (SE) Kg for males and 1.87 ?? 0.03 kg for females. Mean diumal home range using the adaptive kernel method was 5.74 ?? 2.73 km2 for three males and 2.23 ?? 0.44 km2 for two females. Daytime locations were always within the montane wet forest with the borders on one or more sides of the home ranges of all cats defined by open grassland pastures. Rodents comprised the majority of the cat diets in all three habitats, with the frequencies of occurence between 0.88 and 0.91. Bird remains were a regular component of the diet of cats, with montane wet forest having the highest frequency of occurence (0.68), followed by subalpine dry forest (0.53), and lowland dry forest (0.21).

  12. Modeling white-tailed deer activity patterns across forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Gribko; Michael E. Hohn; William M. Ford

    2000-01-01

    White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herbivory has been identified as a major impediment to the survival and growth of forest regeneration in the northeastern United States. As a supplement to direct control of deer densities through hunting, it may be possible for land managers to manipulate habitat and browsing pressure through carefully...

  13. Improving city forests through assessment, modelling and monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.J. Nowak

    2018-01-01

    Urban and peri-urban forests produce numerous benefits for society. These include moderating the climate; reducing energy use in buildings; sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide; improving air and water quality; mitigating rainfall run-off and flooding; providing an aesthetic environment and recreational opportunities; enhancing human health and social well-being;...

  14. Modeling of Radiowave Propagation in a Forested Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    and downlink communication from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to troops located within forest. Lastly, there is deployment of vehicular ...band (30 to 300 MHz) where the wavelength is relatively long (1.0 m to 10.0 m). With the congestion of spectrum usage in the VHF band and the

  15. Alternative business models for forest - dependent communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Robert A. Kozak

    2009-12-02

    Dec 2, 2009 ... 2424 Main Mall,Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada. E - mail: .... address social, economic and environmental concerns in Africa, perhaps it is more ... Since colonization, the dominant mode of business practice in the high forest ...

  16. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  17. Exploitation of geoinformatics at modelling of functional effects of forest functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitko, R.

    2005-01-01

    From point of view of space modelling geoinformatics has wide application in group of ecologic function of forest because they directly depend on natural conditions of site. A causa de cy modelling application was realised on the territory of TANAP (Tatras National Park), West Tatras, in the part Liptovske Kopy. The size of this territory is about 4,900 hectares and forests there subserve the first of all significant ecological functions, what are soil protection from erosion, water management, and anti-avalanche function. Of environmental functions they have recreational role of the forest and function of nature protection. Anti-avalanche and anti-erosion function of forest is evaluated in this presentation

  18. Modelling the migration and accumulation of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. Report of the Forest Working Group of BIOMASS Theme 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-08-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Under the general heading of 'Reference Biospheres', six Task Groups were established: Task Group 1: Principles for the Definition of Critical and Other Exposure Groups. Task Group 2: Principles for the Application of Data to Assessment Models. Task Group 3: Consideration of Alternative Assessment Contexts. Task Group 4: Biosphere System Identification and Justification. Task Group 5: Biosphere System Descriptions. Task Group 6: Model Development. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long-term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3

  19. Investigating the relationship between tree heights derived from SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Feliciano, E. A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Sun, G.; Montesano, P.; Ranson, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tree heights are one of the most commonly used remote sensing parameters to measure biomass of a forest. In this project, we investigate the relationship between remotely sensed tree heights (e.g. G-LiHT lidar and commercially available high resolution satellite imagery, HRSI) and the SIBBORK modeled tree heights. G-LiHT is a portable, airborne imaging system that simultaneously maps the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial ecosystems using lidar, imaging spectroscopy and thermal mapping. Ground elevation and canopy height models were generated using the lidar data acquired in 2012. A digital surface model was also generated using the HRSI technique from the commercially available WorldView data in 2016. The HRSI derived height and biomass products are available at the plot (10x10m) level. For this study, we parameterized the SIBBORK individual-based gap model for Howland forest, Maine. The parameterization was calibrated using field data for the study site and results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Howland old growth forest, based on comparisons of key variables including, aboveground biomass, forest height and basal area. Furthermore carbon cycle and ecosystem observational capabilities will be enhanced over the next 6 years via the launch of two LiDAR (NASA's GEDI and ICESAT 2) and two SAR (NASA's ISRO NiSAR and ESA's Biomass) systems. Our aim is to present the comparison of canopy height models obtained with SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing techniques, highlighting the synergy between individual-based forest modeling and high-resolution remote sensing.

  20. Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Hollis; S. Matthews; Roger Ottmar; S.J. Prichard; S. Slijepcevic; N.D. Burrows; B. Ward; K.G. Tolhurst; W.R. Anderson; J S. Gould

    2010-01-01

    Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National...

  1. Evapotranspiration and heat fluxes over a small forest - a study using modelling and measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sogachev, Andrey; Dellwik, Ebba; Boegh, Eva

    2013-01-01

    are very often used for calibration of forest parameters or model constants, further use of these parameters without a proper interpretation in mesoscale or global circulation models can result in serious bias of estimates of modelled evapotranspiration or heat fluxes from the given area. In the present...... work, we apply the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model SCADIS with enhanced turbulence closure including buoyancy for investigation of the spatial distribution of latent and sensible heat vertical fluxes over patchy forested terrain in Denmark during selected days in the summer period. The approach...

  2. Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

    2018-02-15

    The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

    2014-07-01

    The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

  4. Understanding the radar backscattering from flooded and nonflooded Amazonian forests: results from canopy backscatter modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Hess, L.L.; Filoso, S.; Melack, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    To understand the potential of using multiwavelength imaging radars to detect flooding in Amazonian floodplain forests, we simulated the radar backscatter from a floodplain forest with a flooded or nonflooded ground condition at C-, L-, and P-bands. Field measurements of forest structure in the Anavilhanas archipelago of the Negro River, Brazil, were used as inputs to the model. Given the same wavelength or incidence angle, the ratio of backscatter from the flooded forest to that from the nonflooded forest was higher at HH polarization than at VV polarization. Given the same wavelength or polarization, the ratio was larger at small incidence angles than at large incidence angles. Given the same polarization or incidence angle, the ratio was larger at a long wavelength than at a short wavelength. As the surface soil moisture underneath the nonflooded forest increased from 10% to 50% of volumetric moisture, the flooded/nonflooded backscatter ratio decreased; the decreases were small at C- and L-band but large at P-band. When the leaf size was comparable to or larger than the wavelength of C-band, the leaf area index (LAI) had a large effect on the simulated C-band (not L-band or P-band) backscatter from the flooded and nonflooded forests. (author)

  5. Environmental Feedbacks of the Subalpine Ecotone Species in the Langtang National Park, Central Nepal Himalaya

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatta, K. P.; Rokaya, M. (Maan Bahadur); Münzbergová, Z. (Zuzana)

    2015-01-01

    Herbaceous species of the subalpine ecotone are mostly influenced by canopy cover and soil organic carbon. Species such as Gentiana argentea, Geranium donianum, Kobresia sp., Potentilla griffithii, Rubia wallichiana, Rubus nepalensis, Thalictrum chelidonii and Thalictrum cultratum are supposed to be critically sensitive to local environmental conditions due to having narrow amplitude to both the analyzed environmental variables. Although we have single-time data set from the sole existing hor...

  6. Modelling above Ground Biomass of Mangrove Forest Using SENTINEL-1 Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labadisos Argamosa, Reginald Jay; Conferido Blanco, Ariel; Balidoy Baloloy, Alvin; Gumbao Candido, Christian; Lovern Caboboy Dumalag, John Bart; Carandang Dimapilis, Lee, , Lady; Camero Paringit, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    Many studies have been conducted in the estimation of forest above ground biomass (AGB) using features from synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Specifically, L-band ALOS/PALSAR (wavelength 23 cm) data is often used. However, few studies have been made on the use of shorter wavelengths (e.g., C-band, 3.75 cm to 7.5 cm) for forest mapping especially in tropical forests since higher attenuation is observed for volumetric objects where energy propagated is absorbed. This study aims to model AGB estimates of mangrove forest using information derived from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data. Combinations of polarisations (VV, VH), its derivatives, grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), and its principal components were used as features for modelling AGB. Five models were tested with varying combinations of features; a) sigma nought polarisations and its derivatives; b) GLCM textures; c) the first five principal components; d) combination of models a-c; and e) the identified important features by Random Forest variable importance algorithm. Random Forest was used as regressor to compute for the AGB estimates to avoid over fitting caused by the introduction of too many features in the model. Model e obtained the highest r2 of 0.79 and an RMSE of 0.44 Mg using only four features, namely, σ°VH GLCM variance, σ°VH GLCM contrast, PC1, and PC2. This study shows that Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data could be used to produce acceptable AGB estimates in mangrove forest to compensate for the unavailability of longer wavelength SAR.

  7. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  8. Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton; Alvarado, Ernesto

    2017-09-08

    Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% ( n = 35, p forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB.

  9. Model Development For Wireless Propagation In Forested Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    vegetation elements can be compared to the reduction of the propagated radio signals in buildings and urban areas. The diversity of operational...contexts for radio wave propagation through foliage is infinite, ranging from tall, dense canopy forests to open, low, sparse canopy woodlands [3], as...nearly flat and mainly consists of dry soil and sand that is covered by grass in some parts. The experimental site is mixed vegetation woodland with an

  10. The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

  11. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  12. An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

    2014-01-01

    Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

  13. Improving simulated spatial distribution of productivity and biomass in Amazon forests using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Shi, X.; Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Norby, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global NPP and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as it comprises approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the ACME Land Model (ALM) improves simulated spatial pattern of NPP. The P-enabled ALM is able to capture the west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes, ALM is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass across the Amazon region.

  14. Absorber Model: the Halo-like model for the Lyman-α forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iršič, Vid; McQuinn, Matthew

    2018-04-01

    We present a semi-analytic model for the Lyman-α forest that is inspired by the Halo Model. This model is built on the absorption line decomposition of the forest. Flux correlations are decomposed into those within each absorption line (the 1-absorber term) and those between separate lines (the 2-absorber term), treating the lines as biased tracers of the underlying matter fluctuations. While the nonlinear exponential mapping between optical depth and flux requires an infinite series of moments to calculate any statistic, we show that this series can be re-summed (truncating at the desired order in the linear matter overdensity). We focus on the z=2–3 line-of-sight power spectrum. Our model finds that 1-absorber term dominates the power on all scales, with most of its contribution coming from H I columns of 1014–1015 cm‑2, while the smaller 2-absorber contribution comes from lower columns that trace overdensities of a few. The prominence of the 1-absorber correlations indicates that the line-of-sight power spectrum is shaped principally by the lines' number densities and their absorption profiles, with correlations between lines contributing to a lesser extent. We present intuitive formulae for the effective optical depth as well as the large-scale limits of 1-absorber and 2-absorber terms, which simplify to integrals over the H I column density distribution with different equivalent-width weightings. With minimalist models for the bias of absorption systems and their peculiar velocity broadening, our model predicts values for the density bias and velocity gradient bias that are consistent with those found in simulations.

  15. Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2018-01-01

    The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.

  16. The carbon fluxes in different successional stages: modelling the dynamics of tropical montane forests in South Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Paulick

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon (C cycle. However, tropical montane forests have been studied less than tropical lowland forests, and their role in carbon storage is not well understood. Montane forests are highly endangered due to logging, land-use and climate change. Our objective was to analyse how the carbon balance changes during forest succession. Methods In this study, we used a method to estimate local carbon balances that combined forest inventory data with process-based forest models. We utilised such a forest model to study the carbon balance of a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador, comparing two topographical slope positions (ravines and lower slopes vs upper slopes and ridges. Results The simulation results showed that the forest acts as a carbon sink with a maximum net ecosystem exchange (NEE of 9.3 Mg C∙(ha∙yr−1 during its early successional stage (0–100 years. In the late successional stage, the simulated NEE fluctuated around zero and had a variation of 0.77 Mg C∙(ha∙yr –1. The simulated variability of the NEE was within the range of the field data. We discovered several forest attributes (e.g., basal area or the relative amount of pioneer trees that can serve as predictors for NEE for young forest stands (0–100 years but not for those in the late successional stage (500–1,000 years. In case of young forest stands these correlations are high, especially between stand basal area and NEE. Conclusion In this study, we used an Ecuadorian study site as an example of how to successfully link a forest model with forest inventory data, for estimating stem-diameter distributions, biomass and aboveground net primary productivity. To conclude, this study shows that process-based forest models can be used to investigate the carbon balance of tropical montane forests. With this model it is possible to find hidden relationships between forest attributes and forest carbon fluxes

  17. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmon, P.; Gonze, M.-A.; Mourlon, Ch.

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed. - Highlights: • Transfer of radiocesium atmospheric fallout in evergreen forests was modeled. • The model was tested using observations from Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. • Model predictions of canopy interception and depuration agree with measurements. • Unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall for the

  18. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  19. Modeling demographic performance of northern spotted owls relative to forest habitat in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Gail S.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Reid, Janice A.; Loschl, Peter J.; Ripple, William J.

    2004-01-01

    Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are known to be associated with late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, but the effects of habitat on their demographic performance are relatively unknown. We developed statistical models relating owl survival and productivity to forest cover types within the Roseburg Study Area in the Oregon Coast Range of Oregon, USA. We further combined these demographic parameters using a Leslie-type matrix to obtain an estimate of habitat fitness potential for each owl territory (n = 94). We used mark–recapture methods to develop models for survival and linear mixed models for productivity. We measured forest composition and landscape patterns at 3 landscape scales centered on nest and activity sites within owl territories using an aerial photo-based map and a Geographic Information System (GIS). We also considered additional covariates such as age, sex, and presence of barred owls (Strix varia), and seasonal climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in our models. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank and compare models. Survival had a quadratic relationship with the amount of late- and mid-seral forests within 1,500 m of nesting centers. Survival also was influenced by the amount of precipitation during the nesting season. Only 16% of the variability in survival was accounted for by our best model, but 85% of this was due to the habitat variable. Reproductive rates fluctuated biennially and were positively related to the amount of edge between late- and mid-seral forests and other habitat classes. Reproductive rates also were influenced by parent age, amount of precipitation during nesting season, and presence of barred owls. Our best model accounted for 84% of the variability in productivity, but only 3% of that was due to the habitat variable. Estimates of habitat fitness potential (which may range from 0 to infinity) for the 94 territories ranged from 0.74 to 1

  20. A dendrochronological analysis of a disturbance-succession model for oak-pine forests of the Appalachian Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose; Thomas A. Waldrop

    2010-01-01

    Disturbance-succession models describe the relationship between the disturbance regime and the dominant tree species of a forest type. Such models are useful tools in ecosystem management and restoration, provided they are accurate. We tested a disturbance-succession model for the oak-pine (Quercus spp. - Pinus spp.) forests of the...

  1. Human disturbance provides foraging opportunities for birds in primary subalpine forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    DuBay, Shane G.; Hart Reeve, Andrew; Wu, Yongjie

    2017-01-01

    or Cettia major, and Heteroxenicus stellatus. This behavior is likely a modification of pre-existing interspecific foraging associations with pheasants and large mammals in the region. These larger animals disturb the earth and lower vegetation layers upon passage and while foraging, exposing previously...... opportunities. We cut and cleared small swaths of dense bamboo growth for an unrelated study. Multiple insectivorous species were recruited to the cleared areas, foraging extensively in the disturbed earth, often within 1 m of us. These species included Tarsiger chrysaeus, Tarsiger indicus, Cettia brunnifrons...

  2. Soil fauna and plant litter decomposition in tropical and subalpine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Gonzalez; T.R. Seastedt

    2001-01-01

    The decomposition of plant residues is influenced by their chemical composition, the physical-chemical environment, and the decomposer organisms. Most studies interested in latitudinal gradients of decomposition have focused on substrate quality and climate effects on decomposition, and have excluded explicit recognition of the soil organisms involved in the process....

  3. [Contributions of soil fauna to litter decomposition in alpine/subalpine forests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rui-Long; Li, Wei-Min; Yang, Wan-Qin; Tan, Bo; Wang, Wen-Jun; Xu, Zhen-Feng; Wu, Fu-Zhong

    2013-12-01

    A field experiment was conducted using the litterbag method to quantify the contribution of soil fauna to litter mass loss of Salix paraplesia, Sabina saltuaria, Betula albosinensis and Abies faxoniana during different key periods of the decomposition process of the first year (from November 2011 to October 2012). The results showed that the mass loss rate showed S. paraplesia > B. albosinensis > A. faxoniana > S. saltuaria, and the rate in the growing season was greater than in the freeze-thaw season. The contribution rate of soil fauna to the mass decomposition displayed as S. saltuaria (26.7%) > A. faxoniana (18.8%) > B. albosinensis (15.7%) > S. paraplesia (13.2%), which was higher in the freeze-thaw season than in the growing season for litter of B. albo-sinensis and A. faxoniana while vice versa for litter of B. albosinensis and A. faxoniana. The contribution of soil fauna was mainly related to organic C, P and N/P in the freeze-thaw season, while N, C/N, lignin and lignin/cellulose in the growing season.

  4. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  5. Application of two forest succession models at sites in Northeast Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasch, P.; Lindner, M.

    1995-06-01

    In order to simulate potential impacts of climate change on forests, two succession models were applied to sites in the Northeast German lowlands. The models, which had been developed for Alpine (FORECE) and Boreal (FORSKA) forests differ from each other in the way they represent tree growth processes and the impact of environmental factors on establishment and growth. Both models were adjusted and compared with each other at sites that are situated along an ecological gradient from maritime to subcontinental climate. These sites are extending the former environmental space of model application towards water limited conditions, which under a predicted climatic change may have increasing importance for European forests. First results showed that FORECE was unrealistically sensitive to changes in soil moisture. On the other hand, FORSKA generally simulated very low biomasses. Since the structure of FORSKA seemed to be better suited for the simulation of changing environmental conditions, this model was chosen for further model development, applications and sensitivity analyses. Among other changes, establishment rates were increased and some environmental response factors were analysed. The function of account for resource depletion was modified. After the modifications for Central European conditions were made, there was a decrease in performance for the Boreal site. Both simulated total biomasses and species composition had changed. We conclude, that with currently available models, realistic forest dynamics within different climatic zones of Europe cannot be simulated without more substantial model modifications. (orig.)

  6. Comparing i-Tree modeled ozone deposition with field measurements in a periurban Mediterranean forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Morani; D. Nowak; S. Hirabayashi; G. Guidolotti; M. Medori; V. Muzzini; S. Fares; G. Scarascia Mugnozza; C. Calfapietra

    2014-01-01

    Ozone flux estimates from the i-Tree model were compared with ozone flux measurements using the Eddy Covariance technique in a periurban Mediterranean forest near Rome (Castelporziano). For the first time i-Tree model outputs were compared with field measurements in relation to dry deposition estimates. Results showed generally a...

  7. A note on estimating urban roof runoff with a forest evaporation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gash, J.H.C.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Ragab, R.

    2008-01-01

    A model developed for estimating the evaporation of rainfall intercepted by forest canopies is applied to estimate measurements of the average runoff from the roofs of six houses made in a previous study of hydrological processes in an urban environment. The model is applied using values of the mean

  8. Adapting forest management to climate change using bioclimate models with topographic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerald E. Rehfeldt; James J. Worrall; Suzanne B. Marchetti; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2015-01-01

    Bioclimate models incorporating topographic predictors as surrogates for microclimate effects are developed for Populus tremuloides and Picea engelmannii to provide the fine-grained specificity to local terrain required for adapting management of three Colorado (USA) national forests (1.28 million ha) and their periphery to climate change. Models were built with the...

  9. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

  10. Modeling precipitation-runoff relationships to determine water yield from a ponderosa pine forest watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assefa S. Desta

    2006-01-01

    A stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling is used to estimate a cold and warm-seasons water yield from a ponderosa pine forested watershed in the north-central Arizona. The model consists of two parts namely, simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation using a stochastic, event-based approach and estimation of water yield from the watershed...

  11. Evaluating Ammonia Deposition Rates for Deciduous Forest using Measurements and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Geels, Camilla; Hertel, Ole

    ). However, there are relatively few datasets of atmospheric NH3 fluxes available for forests which can contribute verifying model results. The atmospheric dry deposition of NH3 for the beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest, Lille Bøgeskov, in Sorø, Denmark, is investigated using the high resolution...... these impacts, quantifying the magnitude of the NH3 flux in the biosphere atmosphere system is essential. Model simulations using the Danish Ammonia Modelling System (DAMOS) have recently indicated that particular forest ecosystems are exposed to critical load exceedances of N (Geels et al., not yet submitted......-agricultural areas (Skjøth et al. 2011, ACPD). New atmospheric NH3 flux measurements for Lille Bøgeskov have been conducted throughout 2011 and these data are presented and discussed in relation to the 2010 data of atmospheric NH3. Future studies aim to improve the description of dry deposition of NH3 for vegetative...

  12. Spatio-temporal analysis of forest modeling in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saira Y. Martínez-Santiago

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hay consenso de que las acciones antropogénicas están degradando los ecosistemas a un ritmo alarmante. La modelación y las nuevas tecnologías, como las tecnologías de la información y de la comunicación ( TIC, se utilizan en modo creciente para tomar decisiones sobre el manejo y la conservación de los recursos naturales. En este trabajo se analizaron la evolución temporal y la distribución espacial de la producción científica en modelación forestal en México. De 1980 a 2015, 454 autores participaron en la publicación de 259 artículos en 37 revistas (84 % mexicanas, de las cuales 28 están indizadas en el Journal Citation Reports (JCR. Los trabajos sobre manejo forestal han sido los más relevantes, aunque tienen una importancia relativa a la baja, mientras que los de servicios ambientales y distribución potencial van ganando importancia. Los autores pertenecen a 89 instituciones, de las cuales 65 % son mexicanas. Durante el periodo analizado, el número de autores (y las colaboraciones y publicaciones incrementaron 12 y nueve veces, respectivamente. Estos incrementos coinciden con la evolución de las políticas normativas y el establecimiento y apoyo del Sistema Nacional de Investigadores. Las colaboraciones en la red actual de modelación forestal aún tienen gran potencial de crecimiento.

  13. A comparison of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Bergman, R.; Scimone, M.; Fesenko, S.; Sancharova, N.; Moberg, L.

    2001-01-01

    The predictions of three models of 137 Cs transfer in forest ecosystems (FOA, LOGNAT and FORESTLAND) were compared. The scenario for the model-model comparison consisted of an acute dry deposition of 137 Cs over a coniferous forest. The model predictions were subsequently compared (model-data comparison) with values derived from experimental data measured in forests of the Bryansk region in Russia that were contaminated by the Chernobyl accident and that have similar characteristics to the forests described in the scenario. The predictions of radiocaesium levels in the litter-soil layer, berries, needles, wood, whole tree and moose made with the models were in relatively good agreement with each other (within a factor of 1.4-2.9). The best agreement was observed for berries and moose and the worst for wood. There was also good agreement between the model predictions for the same variables and the experimental data (within a factor of 1.2-3.2). In this case, the best agreement was observed for the litter-soil layer and the worst for wood and the whole tree. Overall, at least for the studied scenario and for the first 10 years after deposition, any of the models can be used if the final aim is to estimate average concentrations in different forest components. The agreement between the model predictions worsens with time and there were differences in the form of the time dependencies predicted by the models, especially for wood. This may lead to larger differences between the model predictions and the experimental data for times beyond the period for which data were available for comparison (10 years after the deposition)

  14. Modeling the Carbon Implications of Ecologically-Based Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Fule, P.Z., Moore, M.M., Hart, S.C., Kolb , T.E., Mast, J.N., Sackett, S.S., Wagner, M.R., 1997. Restoring ecosystem health in ponderosa pine forests of...Botanical Society 129, 289-297. Dore, S., Kolb , T.E., Montes-Helu, M., Sullivan, B.W., Winslow, W.D., Hart, S.C., Kaye, J.P., Koch, G.W...Dore, S., M. Montes-Helu, S.C. Hart, B.A. Hungate, G.W. Koch, J.B. Moon, A.J. Finkral, T.E. Kolb . 2012. Recovery of ponderosa pine ecosystem carbon and

  15. Modeling the Carbon Implications of Ecologically Based Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-20

    Fule, P.Z., Moore, M.M., Hart, S.C., Kolb , T.E., Mast, J.N., Sackett, S.S., Wagner, M.R., 1997. Restoring ecosystem health in ponderosa pine forests of...Botanical Society 129, 289-297. Dore, S., Kolb , T.E., Montes-Helu, M., Sullivan, B.W., Winslow, W.D., Hart, S.C., Kaye, J.P., Koch, G.W...Dore, S., M. Montes-Helu, S.C. Hart, B.A. Hungate, G.W. Koch, J.B. Moon, A.J. Finkral, T.E. Kolb . 2012. Recovery of ponderosa pine ecosystem carbon and

  16. Forest Modeling of Jack Pine Trees for BOREAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghhadam, Mahta; Saatchi, Sasan

    1994-01-01

    As a part of the intensive field campaign for the Boreal forest ecosystem-atmosphere research (BOREAS) project in August 1993, the NASA/JPL AIRSAR covered an area of about 100 km by 100 km near the Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan, Canada. At the same time, ground-truth measurements were made in several stands which have been selected as the primary study sites, as well as in some auxiliary sites. This paper focuses on an area including Jack Pine stands in the Nipawin area near the park.

  17. Utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis Data, Remote Sensing, and Ecosystem Models for National Forest System Carbon Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexa J. Dugan; Richard A. Birdsey; Sean P. Healey; Christopher Woodall; Fangmin Zhang; Jing M. Chen; Alexander Hernandez; James B. McCarter

    2015-01-01

    Forested lands, representing the largest terrestrial carbon sink in the United States, offset 16% of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions through carbon sequestration. Meanwhile, this carbon sink is threatened by deforestation, climate change and natural disturbances. As a result, U.S. Forest Service policies require that National Forests assess baseline carbon stocks...

  18. Assessing the protection function of Alpine forest ecosystems using BGC modelling theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pötzelsberger, E.; Hasenauer, H.; Petritsch, R.; Pietsch, S. A.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the protection function of forests in Alpine areas by modelling the flux dynamics (water, carbon, nutrients) within a watershed as they may depend on the vegetation pattern and forest management impacts. The application case for this study was the catchment Schmittenbach, located in the province of Salzburg. Data available covered the hydrology (rainfall measurements from 1981 to 1998 and runoff measurements at the river Schmittenbach from 1981 to 2005), vegetation dynamics (currently 69% forest, predominantly Norway Spruce). The method of simulating the forest growth and water outflow was validated. For simulations of the key ecosystem processes (e.g. photosynthesis, carbon and nitrogen allocation in the different plant parts, litter fall, mineralisation, tree water uptake, transpiration, rainfall interception, evaporation, snow accumulation and snow melt, outflow of spare water) the biogeochemical ecosystem model Biome-BGC was applied. Relevant model extensions were the tree species specific parameter sets and the improved thinning regime. The model is sensitive to site characteristics and needs daily weather data and information on the atmospheric composition, which makes it sensitive to higher CO2-levels and climate change. For model validation 53 plots were selected covering the full range of site quality and stand age. Tree volume and soil was measured and compared with the respective model results. The outflow for the watershed was predicted by combining the simulated forest-outflow (derived from plot-outflow) with the outflow from the non-forest area (calculated with a fixed outflow/rainfall coefficient (OC)). The analysis of production and water related model outputs indicated that mechanistic modelling can be used as a tool to assess the performance of Alpine protection forests. The Water Use Efficiency (WUE), the ratio of Net primary production (NPP) and Transpiration, was found the highest for juvenile stands (

  19. Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

  20. A high performance finite element model for wind farm modeling in forested areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Herbert; Avila, Matias; Folch, Arnau; Cosculluela, Luis; Prieto, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy has grown significantly during the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the fight against climate change. In the search for new land where the impact of the wind turbines is small several wind farms are currently being installed in forested areas. In order to optimize the distribution of the wind turbines within the wind farm the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations are solved over the domain of interest using either commercial or in house codes. The existence of a canopy alters the Atmospheric Boundary Layer wind profile close to the ground. Therefore in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the flow in forested areas modification to both the Navier Stokes and turbulence variables equations need to be introduced. Several existing canopy models have been tested in an academic problem showing that the one proposed by Sogachev et. al gives the best results. This model has been implemented in an in house CFD solver named Alya. It is a high performance unstructured finite element code that has been designed from scratch to be able to run in the world's biggest supercomputers. Its scalabililty has recently been tested up to 100000 processors in both American and European supercomputers. During the past three years the code has been tuned and tested for wind energy problems. Recent efforts have focused on the canopy model following industry needs. In this work we shall benchmark our results in a wind farm that is currently being designed by Scottish Power and Iberdrola in Scotland. This is a very interesting real case with extensive experimental data from five different masts with anemometers at several heights. It is used to benchmark both the wind profiles and the speed up obtained between different masts. Sixteen different wind directions are simulated. The numerical model provides very satisfactory results for both the masts that are affected by the canopy and those that are not influenced by it.

  1. Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems - results of a model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Venter, A.; Avila, R.; Bergman, R.; Bulgakov, A.; Calmon, P.; Fesenko, S.; Frissel, M.; Goor, F.; Konoplev, A.; Linkov, I.; Mamikhin, S.; Moberg, L.; Orlov, A.; Rantavaara, A.; Spiridonov, S.; Thiry, Y.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested

  2. Semantic World Modelling and Data Management in a 4d Forest Simulation and Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roßmann, J.; Hoppen, M.; Bücken, A.

    2013-08-01

    Various types of 3D simulation applications benefit from realistic forest models. They range from flight simulators for entertainment to harvester simulators for training and tree growth simulations for research and planning. Our 4D forest simulation and information system integrates the necessary methods for data extraction, modelling and management. Using modern methods of semantic world modelling, tree data can efficiently be extracted from remote sensing data. The derived forest models contain position, height, crown volume, type and diameter of each tree. This data is modelled using GML-based data models to assure compatibility and exchangeability. A flexible approach for database synchronization is used to manage the data and provide caching, persistence, a central communication hub for change distribution, and a versioning mechanism. Combining various simulation techniques and data versioning, the 4D forest simulation and information system can provide applications with "both directions" of the fourth dimension. Our paper outlines the current state, new developments, and integration of tree extraction, data modelling, and data management. It also shows several applications realized with the system.

  3. ADVANCED EARTH OBSERVATION APPROACH FOR MULTISCALE FOREST ECOSYSTEM SERVICES MODELING AND MAPPING (MIMOSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chirici

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade ecosystem services (ES have been proposed as a method for quantifying the multifunctional role of forest ecosystems. Their spatial distribution on large areas is frequently limited by the lack of information, because field data collection with traditional methods requires much effort in terms of time and cost.  In this contribution we propose a methodology (namely, MultIscale Mapping Of ecoSystem servicEs - MIMOSE based on the integration of remotely sensed images and field observation to produce a wall-to-wall geodatabase of forest parcels accompanied with several information useful as a basis for future trade-off analysis of different ES. Here, we present the application of the MIMOSE approach to a study area of 443,758 hectares  coincident with administrative Molise Region in Central Italy. The procedure is based on a local high resolution forest types map integrated with information on the main forest management approaches. Through the non-parametric k-Nearest Neighbors techniques, we produced a growing stock volume map integrating a local forest inventory with a multispectral satellite IRS LISS III imagery. With the growing stock volume map we derived a forest age map for even-aged forest types. Later these information were used to automatically create a vector forest parcels map by multidimensional image segmentation that were finally populated with a number of information useful for ES spatial estimation. The contribution briefly introduce to the MIMOSE methodology presenting the preliminary results we achieved which constitute the basis for a future implementation of ES modeling.

  4. Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration in Russian and Swedish Model Forest Initiatives: Adaptive Governance Toward Sustainable Forest Management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Elbakidze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Building the adaptive capacity of interlinked social and ecological systems is assumed to improve implementation of sustainable forest management (SFM policies. One mechanism is collaborative learning by continuous evaluation, communication, and transdisciplinary knowledge production. The Model Forest (MF concept, developed in Canada, is intended to encourage all dimensions of sustainable development through collaboration among stakeholders of forest resources in a geographical area. Because the MF approach encompasses both social and ecological systems, it can be seen as a process aimed at improving adaptive capacity to deal with uncertainty and change. We analyzed multi-stakeholder approaches used in four MF initiatives representing social-ecological systems with different governance legacies and economic histories in the northwest of the Russian Federation (Komi MF and Pskov MF and in Sweden (Vilhelmina MF and the Foundation Säfsen Forests in the Bergslagen region. To describe the motivations behind development of the initiative and the governance systems, we used qualitative open-ended interviews and analyzed reports and official documents. The initial driving forces for establishing new local governance arrangements were different in all four cases. All MFs were characterized by multi-level and multi-sector collaboration. However, the distribution of power among stakeholders ranged from clearly top down in the Russian Federation to largely bottom up in Sweden. All MF initiatives shared three main challenges: (a to develop governance arrangements that include representative actors and stakeholders, (b to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to governance, and (c to coordinate different sectors' modes of landscape governance. We conclude that, in principle, the MF concept is a promising approach to multi-stakeholder collaboration. However, to understand the local and regional dimensions of sustainability, and the level of adaptability

  5. Detecting forest structure and biomass with C-band multipolarization radar - Physical model and field tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, Walter E.; Paris, Jack F.

    1987-01-01

    The ability of C-band radar (4.75 GHz) to discriminate features of forest structure, including biomass, is tested using a truck-mounted scatterometer for field tests on a 1.5-3.0 m pygmy forest of cypress (Cupressus pygmaea) and pine (Pinus contorta ssp, Bolanderi) near Mendocino, CA. In all, 31 structural variables of the forest are quantified at seven sites. Also measured was the backscatter from a life-sized physical model of the pygmy forest, composed of nine wooden trees with 'leafy branches' of sponge-wrapped dowels. This model enabled independent testing of the effects of stem, branch, and leafy branch biomass, branch angle, and moisture content on radar backscatter. Field results suggested that surface area of leaves played a greater role in leaf scattering properties than leaf biomass per se. Tree leaf area index was strongly correlated with vertically polarized power backscatter (r = 0.94; P less than 0.01). Field results suggested that the scattering role of leaf water is enhanced as leaf surface area per unit leaf mass increases; i.e., as the moist scattering surfaces become more dispersed. Fog condensate caused a measurable rise in forest backscatter, both from surface and internal rises in water content. Tree branch mass per unit area was highly correlated with cross-polarized backscatter in the field (r = 0.93; P less than 0.01), a result also seen in the physical model.

  6. IMPROVED FARMER’S CAPASITY MODEL OF PRIVATE FOREST MANAGEMENT: STUDIES IN RANGGANG VILLAGE, SOUTH KALIMANTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idin Saepudin Ruhimat

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Farmer’s capacity is one of the important factors that determine the success of private forest management. However, the farmer’s capacity level in several places is still low so that potentially to inhibiting successful of private forests management practices. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect farmer’s capacity level of private forests management practices, and to formulate improved farmer’s capacity model of private forests management in Ranggang Village, South Kalimantan. The data was analyzed by Structural Equation Model (SEM with the help of SmartPls 2.0 M3. Results showed (1 learning experience level directly affect to farmer’s capacity while farmer’s characteristics, external support, social and cultural environment supporting, the role of extension, and information availability indirectly affect to farmer’s capacity of private forests management in Ranggang Village, and (2 improved farmer’s capacity model can be done by improving the farmer’s learning experience through intensive, scheduled, and suistainable education, training and extension with stakeholders support. 

  7. Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J. P.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Bohrer, G.; Gough, C. M.

    2015-01-01

    Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

  8. Complementary models of tree species-soil relationships in old-growth temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem level studies identify plant soil feed backs as important controls on soil nutrient availability,particularly for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although site and species specific studies of tree species soil relationships are relatively common,comparatively fewer studies consider multiple coexisting speciesin old-growth forests across a range of sites that vary underlying soil fertility. We characterized patterns in forest floor and mineral soil nutrients associated with four common tree species across eight undisturbed old-growth forests in Oregon, USA, and used two complementary conceptual models to assess tree species soil relationships. Plant soil feedbacks that could reinforce sitelevel differences in nutrient availability were assessed using the context dependent relationships model, where by relative species based differences in each soil nutrient divergedorconvergedas nutrient status changed across sites. Tree species soil relationships that did not reflect strong feedbacks were evaluated using a site independent relationships model, where by forest floor and surface mineral soil nutrient tools differed consistently by tree species across sites,without variation in deeper mineral soils. We found that theorganically cycled elements carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus exhibited context-dependent differences among species in both forest floor and mineral soil, and most of ten followed adivergence model,where by species differences were greatest at high-nutrient sites. These patterns are consistent with the oryemphasizing biotic control of these elements through plant soil feedback mechanisms. Site independent species differences were strongest for pool so if the weather able cations calcium, magnesium, potassium,as well as phosphorus, in mineral soils. Site independent species differences in forest floor nutrients we reattributable too nespecies that displayed significant greater forest floor mass accumulation. Our finding confirmed that site-independent and

  9. Rare Plants of Southeastern Hardwood Forests and the Role of Predictive Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imm, D.W.; Shealy, H.E. Jr.; McLeod, K.W.; Collins, B.

    2001-01-01

    Habitat prediction models for rare plants can be useful when large areas must be surveyed or populations must be established. Investigators developed a habitat prediction model for four species of Southeastern hardwood forests. These four examples suggest that models based on resource and vegetation characteristics can accurately predict habitat, but only when plants are strongly associated with these variables and the scale of modeling coincides with habitat size

  10. The possible influence of terracettes on surface hydrology of steep-sloping and subalpine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, Philip; Kuonen, Samuel; Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus

    2015-04-01

    Alpine and mountain slopes represent important pathways that link high altitude grazing areas to meadows and rangelands at lower elevations. Given the often acute gradients associated with such environments, they potentially represent highly efficient runoff conveyance routes that presumably facilitate the downslope movement of runoff and associated material during erosion events. Many such slopes host series of small steps, or `terracettes`. The position of terracette systems, usually juxtaposed across the natural downslope flow-path of acute slopes, lead us to hypothesise that their presence may influence typical hillslope processes by intercepting or capturing surface runoff during its downslope transit. Here we report preliminary results and some tentative conclusions from on-going work to explore this possibility. Google Earth was used to initially identify a ca. 400 m2 area of well-developed terracette system situated on a west-facing slope with gradients ranging from 25-40o (46-84%). A digital elevation model (DEM) of a section of the terracette system was constructed using spatial data taken from a relevant excerpt of a topographic map. The DEM was then queried using a flow accumulation algorithm and the results were displayed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The output data provided 'proof of concept' that terracettes are able to capture surface runoff. A series of rainfall / runoff simulations was then performed on the same section of terracettes. Results from both components of the investigation indicate that certain sections of a terracette system intercepted surface runoff and acted as preferential flow-pathways during runoff events. By contrast, and despite being subjected to intense rainfall, some sections of the same terracette system did not generate surface runoff. Based on these contrasting findings, we cautiously predict that areas where surface runoff was not generated may actually act as depositional sites, or retention zones, and

  11. Estimating and mapping forest biomass using regression models and Spot-6 images (case study: Hyrcanian forests of north of Iran).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motlagh, Mohadeseh Ghanbari; Kafaky, Sasan Babaie; Mataji, Asadollah; Akhavan, Reza

    2018-05-21

    Hyrcanian forests of North of Iran are of great importance in terms of various economic and environmental aspects. In this study, Spot-6 satellite images and regression models were applied to estimate above-ground biomass in these forests. This research was carried out in six compartments in three climatic (semi-arid to humid) types and two altitude classes. In the first step, ground sampling methods at the compartment level were used to estimate aboveground biomass (Mg/ha). Then, by reviewing the results of other studies, the most appropriate vegetation indices were selected. In this study, three indices of NDVI, RVI, and TVI were calculated. We investigated the relationship between the vegetation indices and aboveground biomass measured at sample-plot level. Based on the results, the relationship between aboveground biomass values and vegetation indices was a linear regression with the highest level of significance for NDVI in all compartments. Since at the compartment level the correlation coefficient between NDVI and aboveground biomass was the highest, NDVI was used for mapping aboveground biomass. According to the results of this study, biomass values were highly different in various climatic and altitudinal classes with the highest biomass value observed in humid climate and high-altitude class.

  12. Examining the Competition for Forest Resources in Sweden Using Factor Substitution Analysis and Partial Equilibrium Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsson, Anna

    2011-07-01

    The overall objective of the thesis is to analyse the procurement competition for forest resources in Sweden. The thesis consists of an introductory part and two self-contained papers. In paper I a translog cost function approach is used to analyse the factor substitution in the sawmill industry, the pulp and paper industry and the heating industry in Sweden over the period 1970 to 2008. The estimated parameters are used to calculate the Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution as well as the price elasticities of input demand. The utilisation of forest resources in the energy sector has been increasing and this increase is believed to continue. The increase is, to a large extent, caused by economic policies introduced to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Such policies could lead to an increase in the procurement competition between the forest industries and the energy sector. The calculated substitution elasticities indicate that it is easier for the heating industry to substitutes between by-products and logging residues than it is for the pulp and paper industry to substitute between by-products and roundwood. This suggests that the pulp and paper industry could suffer from an increase in the procurement competition. However, overall the substitutions elasticities estimated in our study are relatively low. This indicates that substitution possibilities could be rather limited due to rigidities in input prices. This result suggests that competition of forest resources also might be relatively limited. In paper II a partial equilibrium model is constructed in order to asses the effects an increasing utilisation of forest resources in the energy sector. The increasing utilisation of forest fuel is, to a large extent, caused by economic policies introduced to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. In countries where forests already are highly utilised such policies will lead to an increase in the procurement competition between the forest sector and

  13. Application of a niche-based model for forest cover classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amici V

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, a surge of interest in biodiversity conservation have led to the development of new approaches to facilitate ecologically-based conservation policies and management plans. In particular, image classification and predictive distribution modeling applied to forest habitats, constitute a crucial issue as forests constitute the most widespread vegetation type and play a key role for ecosystem functioning. Then, the general purpose of this study is to develop a framework that in the absence of large amounts of field data for large areas may allow to select the most appropriate classification. In some cases, a hard division of classes is required, especially as support to environmental policies; despite this it is necessary to take into account problems which derive from a crisp view of ecological entities being mapped, since habitats are expected to be structurally complex and continuously vary within a landscape. In this paper, a niche model (MaxEnt, generally used to estimate species/habitat distribution, has been applied to classify forest cover in a complex Mediterranean area and to estimate the probability distribution of four forest types, producing continuous maps of forest cover. The use of the obtained models as validation of model for crisp classifications, highlighted that crisp classification, which is being continuously used in landscape research and planning, is not free from drawbacks as it is showing a high degree of inner variability. The modeling approach followed by this study, taking into account the uncertainty proper of the natural ecosystems and the use of environmental variables in land cover classification, may represent an useful approach to making more efficient and effective field inventories and to developing effective forest conservation policies.

  14. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-01-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical–ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. - Highlights: • The effects of N atmospheric deposition and climate change on vegetation were simulated. • The model ForSAFE-Veg was calibrated and validated carefully for three forests in France. • Climate has a greater influence on vegetation than N deposition in conifer forests. • N-poor ecosystems are, however, more sensitive to N deposition than to climate change. - Compared to nitrogen atmospheric deposition, climate appears to be the main driver of change in forest plant biodiversity on a century scale, except in N-poor ecosystems.

  15. Modeling the temporal dynamics of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in forest trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2017-11-09

    Trees store carbohydrates, in the form of sugars and starch, as reserves to be used to power both future growth as well as to support day-to-day metabolic functions. These reserves are particularly important in the context of how trees cope with disturbance and stress—for example, as related to pest outbreaks, wind or ice damage, and extreme climate events. In this project, we measured the size of carbon reserves in forest trees, and determined how quickly these reserves are used and replaced—i.e., their “turnover time”. Our work was conducted at Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. Through field sampling, laboratory-based chemical analyses, and allometric modeling, we scaled these measurements up to whole-tree NSC budgets. We used these data to test and improve computer simulation models of carbon flow through forest ecosystems. Our modeling focused on the mathematical representation of these stored carbon reserves, and we examined the sensitivity of model performance to different model structures. This project contributes to DOE’s goal to improve next-generation models of the earth system, and to understand the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  16. Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

    2013-11-01

    This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

  17. Perspectives for the application of computer models to forest dynamics forecasting in bieszczadzki national park (Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozak Ihor

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of Moczarne area, in Bieszczadzki National Park, based on authors’ computer models. First, the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development in a local scale, i.e. within single rectangular or circular study plot, are presented. For this purpose, a computer prognostic model FORKOM E has been applied, using both general mathematical relationships functioning within a forest ecosystem and empirical ones, characteristic for tree stands at analysed plots. Additionally, a layer of 3D visualisation of a tree stand, which is an integral part of the mentioned model, is also presented. Presented also are the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development at landscape scale, applying the theory of cellular automata. For this purpose, a prognostic computer model CELLAUT was used in which the whole analysed tree stand is understood as a set of single cells, where stages of landscape development dominating within those cells are considered as also the influence of particular cells upon their neighbours. The paper also describes the perspectives for application of self-learning neural networks in the process of supplementation and verification of some parameters of a tree stand, calculated by the above-mentioned models.

  18. The numerical model for parametric studies of forest haul roads pavements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Ševelová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest roads pavement structures are considered to be low volume roads. These roads serve as a mean of transport of wood and people. Besides they are currently often used for recreational purpose. The construction of the pavements should be suitable for forest transportation irrespective of their low bearing capacity. These pavement structures are very specific for special unbound materials that are used in their construction. To meet the requirements of the pavement designs and simulation analysis the FEM model in the software ANSYS was created.This paper compares two material models used for the description of the behaviour of unbound materials. The first is linear elastic according to Hook theory (H model and the second one is nonlinear plastic model Drucker-Prager (D–P model. ANSYS software has been used to create flexible model based on the parametrers of variable principle. The flexible model is parametric to realize repeated calculations useful for optimization analysis.

  19. Numerical modeling of watershed-scale radiocesium transport coupled with biogeochemical cycling in forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, K.; Tada, K.; Tawara, Y.; Tosaka, H.; Ohno, K.; Asami, M.; Kosaka, K.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, intensive monitoring and modeling works on radionuclide transfer in environment have been carried out. Although Cesium (Cs) concentration has been attenuating due to both physical and environmental half-life (i.e., wash-off by water and sediment), the attenuation rate depends clearly on the type of land use and land cover. In the Fukushima case, studying the migration in forest land use is important for predicting the long-term behavior of Cs because most of the contaminated region is covered by forests. Atmospheric fallout is characterized by complicated behavior in biogeochemical cycle in forests which can be described by biotic/abiotic interactions between many components. In developing conceptual and mathematical model on Cs transfer in forest ecosystem, defining the dominant components and their interactions are crucial issues (BIOMASS, 1997-2001). However, the modeling of fate and transport in geosphere after Cs exports from the forest ecosystem is often ignored. An integrated watershed modeling for simulating spatiotemporal redistribution of Cs that includes the entire region from source to mouth and surface to subsurface, has been recently developed. Since the deposited Cs can migrate due to water and sediment movement, the different species (i.e., dissolved and suspended) and their interactions are key issues in the modeling. However, the initial inventory as source-term was simplified to be homogeneous and time-independent, and biogeochemical cycle in forests was not explicitly considered. Consequently, it was difficult to evaluate the regionally-inherent characteristics which differ according to land uses, even if the model was well calibrated. In this study, we combine the different advantages in modeling of forest ecosystem and watershed. This enable to include more realistic Cs deposition and time series of inventory can be forced over the land surface. These processes are integrated

  20. The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from Modeled ICESat-2 Returns Across a Boreal Forest Gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montesano, P. M.; Rosette, J.; Sun, G.; North, P.; Nelson, R. F.; Dubayah, R. O.; Ranson, K. J.; Kharuk, V.

    2014-01-01

    The Forest Light (FLIGHT) radiative transfer model was used to examine the uncertainty of vegetation structure measurements from NASA's planned ICESat-2 photon counting light detection and ranging (LiDAR) instrument across a synthetic Larix forest gradient in the taiga-tundra ecotone. The simulations demonstrate how measurements from the planned spaceborne mission, which differ from those of previous LiDAR systems, may perform across a boreal forest to non-forest structure gradient in globally important ecological region of northern Siberia. We used a modified version of FLIGHT to simulate the acquisition parameters of ICESat-2. Modeled returns were analyzed from collections of sequential footprints along LiDAR tracks (link-scales) of lengths ranging from 20 m-90 m. These link-scales traversed synthetic forest stands that were initialized with parameters drawn from field surveys in Siberian Larix forests. LiDAR returns from vegetation were compiled for 100 simulated LiDAR collections for each 10 Mg · ha(exp -1) interval in the 0-100 Mg · ha(exp -1) above-ground biomass density (AGB) forest gradient. Canopy height metrics were computed and AGB was inferred from empirical models. The root mean square error (RMSE) and RMSE uncertainty associated with the distribution of inferred AGB within each AGB interval across the gradient was examined. Simulation results of the bright daylight and low vegetation reflectivity conditions for collecting photon counting LiDAR with no topographic relief show that 1-2 photons are returned for 79%-88% of LiDAR shots. Signal photons account for approximately 67% of all LiDAR returns, while approximately 50% of shots result in 1 signal photon returned. The proportion of these signal photon returns do not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05) for AGB intervals greater than 20 Mg · ha(exp -1). The 50m link-scale approximates the finest horizontal resolution (length) at which photon counting LiDAR collection provides strong model

  1. Latin hypercube sampling and geostatistical modeling of spatial uncertainty in a spatially explicit forest landscape model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chonggang Xu; Hong S. He; Yuanman Hu; Yu Chang; Xiuzhen Li; Rencang Bu

    2005-01-01

    Geostatistical stochastic simulation is always combined with Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in spatial model simulations. However, due to the relatively long running time of spatially explicit forest models as a result of their complexity, it is always infeasible to generate hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Thus, it is of great...

  2. Element cycling in forest soils - modelling the effects of a changing environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walse, C.

    1998-11-01

    Element cycling and nutrient supply in forest ecosystems are of vital importance for short-term productivity and for longer-term land management in terms of nutrient leaching and CO{sub 2} fixation. This thesis includes a series of studies with the objective of modelling some aspects of the effect of acidification and climate change on element cycling and nutrient supply in forest soil. A reconstruction model of atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake and cycling, MAKEDEP, was developed. An existing model of soil chemistry, SAFE, was analyzed and applied. SAFE+MAKEDEP were then applied in combination with the RAINS model to perform scenario analyses of soil acidification/recovery for six European forest sites. A decomposition model intended to run in conjunction with the SAFE model was developed. Key elements were N, Ca, K, Mg, S and Al. In the decomposition model, only carbon release was included to date.The results show, that understanding the history of soil geochemistry is important for modelling the system and for projecting the future impact of acidification on nutrient supply in forest soils. The applied reconstruction models of acid deposition (MAKEDEP, RAINS) seem to generate reasonable and consistent estimates of historic acid deposition, so that present day conditions can be simulated starting from pre-acidification conditions. From applications of the SAFE model to large-scale forest manipulation experiments, we conclude that the geochemical processes and the degree of detail in process descriptions included in SAFE are adequate to capture the most important aspects of soil solution dynamics of forest soils in northern and central Europe. Therefore, SAFE is appropriate for the simulation of acidification and recovery scenarios for these soils. The precision in model prediction on a more general scale is often limited by factors other than model formulation, such as consistency and representativity of input data. It is shown that the physical

  3. Modeling whole-tree carbon assimilation rate using observed transpiration rates and needle sugar carbon isotope ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jia; Moore, David J P; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A; Burns, Sean P; Monson, Russell K

    2010-03-01

    *Understanding controls over plant-atmosphere CO(2) exchange is important for quantifying carbon budgets across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a simple approach to estimate whole-tree CO(2) assimilation rate (A(Tree)) in a subalpine forest ecosystem. *We analysed the carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of extracted needle sugars and combined it with the daytime leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit to estimate tree water-use efficiency (WUE). The estimated WUE was then combined with observations of tree transpiration rate (E) using sap flow techniques to estimate A(Tree). Estimates of A(Tree) for the three dominant tree species in the forest were combined with species distribution and tree size to estimate and gross primary productivity (GPP) using an ecosystem process model. *A sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of A(Tree) were more sensitive to dynamics in E than delta(13)C. At the ecosystem scale, the abundance of lodgepole pine trees influenced seasonal dynamics in GPP considerably more than Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir because of its greater sensitivity of E to seasonal climate variation. *The results provide the framework for a nondestructive method for estimating whole-tree carbon assimilation rate and ecosystem GPP over daily-to weekly time scales.

  4. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  5. Dynamic model of forest area on flood zone of Padang City, West Sumatra Province-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewata, Indang; Iswandi, U.

    2018-05-01

    The flood disaster has caused many harm to human life, and the change of watershed characteristic is one of the factors causing the flood disaster. The increase of deforestation due to the increase of water causes the occurrence of flood disaster in the rainy season. The research objective was to develop a dynamic model of forest on flood hazard zone using powersim 10.1. In model development, there are three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The study shows that in Padang there are about 13 percent of high flood hazard zones. Deforestation of 4.5 percent/year is one cause that may increased the flooding intensity in Padang. There will be 14 percent of total forest area when management policy of forest absence in 2050.

  6. [Impacts of forest and precipitation on runoff and sediment in Tianshui watershed and GM models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, H

    2000-12-01

    This paper analyzed the impacts of foret stand volume and precipitation on annual erosion modulus, mean sediment, maximum sediment, mean runoff, maximum runoff, minimum runoff, mean water level, maximum water level and minimum water level in Tianshui watershed, and also analyzed the effect of the variation of forest stand volume on monthly mean runoff, minimum runoff and mean water level. The dynamic models of grey system GM(1, N) were constructed to simulate the changes of these hydrological elements. The dynamic GM models on the impact of stand volumes of different forest types(Chinese fir, masson pine and broad-leaved forests) with different age classes(young, middle-aged, mature and over-mature) and that of precipitation on the hydrological elements were also constructed, and their changes with time were analyzed.

  7. Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2016-01-01

    Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

  8. EVALUATING THE NOVEL METHODS ON SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING IN COMPLEX FOREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Tu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of species distribution has become a focus in ecology. For predicting a result more effectively and accurately, some novel methods have been proposed recently, like support vector machine (SVM and maximum entropy (MAXENT. However, high complexity in the forest, like that in Taiwan, will make the modeling become even harder. In this study, we aim to explore which method is more applicable to species distribution modeling in the complex forest. Castanopsis carlesii (long-leaf chinkapin, LLC, growing widely in Taiwan, was chosen as the target species because its seeds are an important food source for animals. We overlaid the tree samples on the layers of altitude, slope, aspect, terrain position, and vegetation index derived from SOPT-5 images, and developed three models, MAXENT, SVM, and decision tree (DT, to predict the potential habitat of LLCs. We evaluated these models by two sets of independent samples in different site and the effect on the complexity of forest by changing the background sample size (BSZ. In the forest with low complex (small BSZ, the accuracies of SVM (kappa = 0.87 and DT (0.86 models were slightly higher than that of MAXENT (0.84. In the more complex situation (large BSZ, MAXENT kept high kappa value (0.85, whereas SVM (0.61 and DT (0.57 models dropped significantly due to limiting the habitat close to samples. Therefore, MAXENT model was more applicable to predict species’ potential habitat in the complex forest; whereas SVM and DT models would tend to underestimate the potential habitat of LLCs.

  9. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  10. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suliman, M D H; Mahmud, M; Reba, M N M; S, L W

    2014-01-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  11. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.

    2014-02-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  12. Forest biometric models in Hidalgo, Mexico: state of the art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nehemías Vásquez-Bautista

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Históricamente, el aprovechamiento de los bosques ha sido la principal razón que ha motivado la investigación forestal. La búsqueda de información sobre la captura y contenido de carbono, mediante modelos biométricos y tecnología de sensores remotos, se ha incrementado desde el año 2000. El objetivo de este trabajo fue recopilar, sistematizar y analizar los documentos de difusión científica y tecnológica relacionados con los modelos biométricos usados para el manejo forestal en una región del centro de México (Hidalgo. Se encontraron 32 trabajos de investigación generados de 1976 a 2015 que reportan 289 modelos, entre los que resalta el uso de modelos de crecimiento, volumen, biomasa, carbono, índice de sitio, densidad y mortalidad. Los modelos de crecimiento han sido los más estudiados, mientras que los de biomasa y carbono se han incrementado consistentemente desde 2007. El género Pinus ha sido el más estudiado, en cambio Quercus, prácticamente, no figura en los trabajos. Pese a su importancia económica, cinco especies forestales no cuentan con modelos ajustados: Pinus leiophylla, P. michoacana, P. oocarpa, Cupressus lindleyi y Arbutus xalapensis. Los modelos reportados basan su confiabilidad en criterios estadísticos, pero no se reporta si han logrado satisfacer la demanda de los usuarios finales.

  13. Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Gennaretti

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill. B.S.P. gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20–30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed. The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

  14. Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Boucher, Etienne; Berninger, Frank; Arseneault, Dominique; Guiot, Joel

    2017-11-01

    A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20-30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed). The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis) and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

  15. An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; Yangjian. Zhang

    2011-01-01

    Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine...

  16. LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Wei Li; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Bo Z. Shang; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

    2005-01-01

    LANDIS 4.0 is new-generation software that simulates forest landscape change over large spatial and temporal scales. It is used to explore how disturbances, succession, and management interact to determine forest composition and pattern. Also describes software architecture, model assumptions and provides detailed instructions on the use of the model.

  17. Modeling carbon sequestration in afforestation, agroforestry and forest management projects: the CO2FIX V.2 approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Masera, O.R.; Garza-Caligaris, J.F.; Kanninen, M.; Karjalainen, T.; Liski, J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Pussinen, A.; Jong de, B.H.J.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2003-01-01

    The paper describes the Version 2 of the CO2FIX (CO2FIX V.2) model, a user-friendly tool for dynamically estimating the carbon sequestration potential of forest management, agroforesty and afforestation projects. CO2FIX V.2 is a multi-cohort ecosystem-level model based on carbon accounting of forest

  18. Neural network modelling of rainfall interception in four different forest stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İbrahim Yurtseven

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to reveal whether it is possible to predict rainfall, through fall and stem flow in forest ecosystems with less effort, using several measurements of rainfall interception (hereafter ‘interception’ and an artificial neural network based linear regression model (ANN model. To this end, the Kerpe Research Forest in the province of Kocaeli, which houses stands of mixed deciduous-broadleaf forest (Castanea sativa Mill., Fagusorientalis Lipsky, Quercus spp., black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold, maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton and Monterey pine (Pinus radiata D. Don, was selected study site. Four different forest stands were observed for a period of two years, during which rainfall, throughfall and stemflow measurements were conducted. These measurements were separately calculated for each individual stand, based on interception values and the use of stemflow data in strict accordance with the rainfall data, and the measured throughfall interceptionvalues were compared with values estimated by the ANN model.In this comparison, 70% of the total data was used for testing, and 30% was used for estimation and performance evaluation. No significant differences were found between values predicted with the help of the model and the measured values. In other words, interception values predicted by the ANN models were parallel with the measured values. In this study, the most success was achieved with the models of the Monterey pine stand (r2 = 0.9968; Mean Squared Error MSE = 0.16 and the mixed deciduous forest stand (r2 = 0.9964; MSE = 0.08, followed by models of the maritime pine stand (r2 = 0.9405; MSE = 1.27 and the black pine stand (r2 = 0.843, MSE = 17.36.

  19. Neural network modelling of rainfall interception in four different forest stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Yurtseven

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to reveal whether it is possible to predict rainfall, throughfall and stemflow in forest ecosystems with less effort, using several measurements of rainfall interception (hereafter ‘interception’ and an artificial neural network based linear regression model (ANN model. To this end, the Kerpe Research Forest in the province of Kocaeli, which houses stands of mixed deciduous-broadleaf forest (Castanea sativa Mill., Fagus orientalis Lipsky, Quercus spp., black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold, maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton and Monterey pine (Pinus radiata D. Don, was selected study site. Four different forest stands were observed for a period of two years, during which rainfall, throughfall and stemflow measurements were conducted. These measurements were separately calculated for each individual stand, based on interception values and the use of stemflow data in strict accordance with the rainfall data, and the measured throughfall interception values were compared with values estimated by the ANN model. In this comparison, 70% of the total data was used for testing, and 30% was used for estimation and performance evaluation. No significant differences were found between values predicted with the help of the model and the measured values. In other words, interception values predicted by the ANN models were parallel with the measured values. In this study, the most success was achieved with the models of the Monterey pine stand (r2 = 0.9968; Mean Squared Error MSE = 0.16 and the mixed deciduous forest stand (r2 = 0.9964; MSE = 0.08, followed by models of the maritime pine stand (r2 = 0.9405; MSE = 1.27 and the black pine stand (r2 = 0.843, MSE = 17.36.

  20. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yan; Xin Tian; Zengyuan Li; Erxue Chen; Xufeng Wang; Zongtao Han; Hong Sun

    2016-01-01

    This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC) using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17) model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 mo...

  1. Spectral tensor parameters for wind turbine load modeling from forested and agricultural landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chougule, Abhijit S.; Mann, Jakob; Segalini, A.

    2015-01-01

    A velocity spectral tensor model was evaluated from the single-point measurements of wind speed. The model contains three parameters representing the dissipation rate of specific turbulent kinetic energy, a turbulence length scale and the turbulence anisotropy. Sonic anemometer measurements taken...... was better than that of the cross-wind component. No significant difference was found between the performance of the model at the forested and the agricultural areas. © 2014 The Authors. Wind Energy published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  2. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  3. Analysing Amazonian forest productivity using a new individual and trait-based model (TFS v.1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyllas, N. M.; Gloor, E.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Quesada, C. A.; Domingues, T. F.; Galbraith, D. R.; Torre-Lezama, A.; Vilanova, E.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Higuchi, N.; Neill, D. A.; Silveira, M.; Ferreira, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Malhi, Y.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

    2014-07-01

    Repeated long-term censuses have revealed large-scale spatial patterns in Amazon basin forest structure and dynamism, with some forests in the west of the basin having up to a twice as high rate of aboveground biomass production and tree recruitment as forests in the east. Possible causes for this variation could be the climatic and edaphic gradients across the basin and/or the spatial distribution of tree species composition. To help understand causes of this variation a new individual-based model of tropical forest growth, designed to take full advantage of the forest census data available from the Amazonian Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), has been developed. The model allows for within-stand variations in tree size distribution and key functional traits and between-stand differences in climate and soil physical and chemical properties. It runs at the stand level with four functional traits - leaf dry mass per area (Ma), leaf nitrogen (NL) and phosphorus (PL) content and wood density (DW) varying from tree to tree - in a way that replicates the observed continua found within each stand. We first applied the model to validate canopy-level water fluxes at three eddy covariance flux measurement sites. For all three sites the canopy-level water fluxes were adequately simulated. We then applied the model at seven plots, where intensive measurements of carbon allocation are available. Tree-by-tree multi-annual growth rates generally agreed well with observations for small trees, but with deviations identified for larger trees. At the stand level, simulations at 40 plots were used to explore the influence of climate and soil nutrient availability on the gross (ΠG) and net (ΠN) primary production rates as well as the carbon use efficiency (CU). Simulated ΠG, ΠN and CU were not associated with temperature. On the other hand, all three measures of stand level productivity were positively related to both mean annual precipitation and soil nutrient status

  4. An improved water budget for the El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, as determined by the Water Supply Stress Index Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liangxia Zhang; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen; Steven McNulty; Peter Caldwell; Suzanne Krieger; Jason Christian; Decheng Zhou; Kai Duan; Keren J. Cepero-Pérez

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying the forest water budget is fundamental to making science-based forest management decisions. This study aimed at developing an improved water budget for the El Yunque National Forest (ENF) in Puerto Rico, one of the wettest forests in the United States. We modified an existing monthly scale water balance model, Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI), to reflect...

  5. Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations Model of Total Aboveground Biomass in Forest Stands: Site-scale Test of Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHOI, S.; Shi, Y.; Ni, X.; Simard, M.; Myneni, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Sparseness in in-situ observations has precluded the spatially explicit and accurate mapping of forest biomass. The need for large-scale maps has raised various approaches implementing conjugations between forest biomass and geospatial predictors such as climate, forest type, soil property, and topography. Despite the improved modeling techniques (e.g., machine learning and spatial statistics), a common limitation is that biophysical mechanisms governing tree growth are neglected in these black-box type models. The absence of a priori knowledge may lead to false interpretation of modeled results or unexplainable shifts in outputs due to the inconsistent training samples or study sites. Here, we present a gray-box approach combining known biophysical processes and geospatial predictors through parametric optimizations (inversion of reference measures). Total aboveground biomass in forest stands is estimated by incorporating the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Two main premises of this research are: (a) The Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations (ASRL) theory can provide a relationship between tree geometry and local resource availability constrained by environmental conditions; and (b) The zeroth order theory (size-frequency distribution) can expand individual tree allometry into total aboveground biomass at the forest stand level. In addition to the FIA estimates, two reference maps from the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) were produced to evaluate the model. This research focuses on a site-scale test of the biomass model to explore the robustness of predictors, and to potentially improve models using additional geospatial predictors such as climatic variables, vegetation indices, soil properties, and lidar-/radar-derived altimetry products (or existing forest canopy height maps). As results, the optimized ASRL estimates satisfactorily

  6. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  7. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A O; Nazarov, I M; Lelakin, A L [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  8. Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Daniel McKenney; John Pedlar; Frank Koch; David Cook

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in north america and elsewhere. Assessments of risk and impacts remain difficult due to...

  9. Calibration of the L-MEB model over a coniferous and a deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Jennifer P.; Saleh-Contell, Kauzar; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere (L-MEB) model used in the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Level 2 Soil Moisture algorithm is calibrated using L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave measurements over a coniferous (Pine) and a deciduous (mixed/Beech) forest. This resulted...

  10. An Optimization-Based System Model of Disturbance-Generated Forest Biomass Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Guy L.; Coulson, Robert N.; Gan, Jianbang; Tchakerian, Maria D.; Smith, C. Tattersall

    2008-01-01

    Disturbance-generated biomass results from endogenous and exogenous natural and cultural disturbances that affect the health and productivity of forest ecosystems. These disturbances can create large quantities of plant biomass on predictable cycles. A systems analysis model has been developed to quantify aspects of system capacities (harvest,…

  11. Using occupancy models of forest breeding birds to prioritize conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Wan, A. A.; Sullivan, P.J.; Lembo, A.J.; Smith, C.R.; Maerz, J.C.; Lassoie, J.P.; Richmond, M.E.

    2009-01-01

    As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Review of nitrogen fate models applicable to forest landscapes in the Southern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. M. Amatya; C. G. Rossi; A. Saleh; Z. Dai; M. A. Youssef; R. G. Williams; D. D. Bosch; G. M. Chescheir; G. Sun; R. W. Skaggs; C. C. Trettin; E. D. Vance; J. E. Nettles; S. Tian

    2013-01-01

    Assessing the environmental impacts of fertilizer nitrogen (N) used to increase productivity in managed forests is complex due to a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affecting its forms and movement. Models developed to predict fertilizer N fate (e.g., cycling processes) and water quality impacts vary widely in their design, scope, and potential application. We...

  13. Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four European coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Churkina, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Thornton, P.; Falge, E.; Elbers, J.A.; Erhard, M.; Grünwald, T.; Kowalski, A.; Rannik, Ü.; Sprinz, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental

  14. A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia. Wang

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

  15. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Robert A. Haack; Roger D. Magarey

    2014-01-01

    Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially...

  16. Challenges of forest landscape modeling - simulating large landscapes and validating results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating...

  17. Estimating actual evapotranspiration for forested sites: modifications to the Thornthwaite Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall K. Kolka; Ann T. Wolf

    1998-01-01

    A previously coded version of the Thornthwaite water balance model was used to estimate annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) for 29 forested sites between 1900 and 1993 in the Upper Great Lakes area. Approximately 8 percent of the data sets calculated AET in error. Errors were detected in months when estimated AET was greater than potential evapotranspiration. Annual...

  18. Mixed-Mode Oscillations Due to a Singular Hopf Bifurcation in a Forest Pest Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøns, Morten; Desroches, Mathieu; Krupa, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In a forest pest model, young trees are distinguished from old trees. The pest feeds on old trees. The pest grows on a fast scale, the young trees on an intermediate scale, and the old trees on a slow scale. A combination of a singular Hopf bifurcation and a “weak return” mechanism, characterized...

  19. Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions for southern Appalachian upland hardwoods with a modified mortality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip J. Radtke; Nathan D. Herring; David L. Loftis; Chad E. Keyser

    2012-01-01

    Prediction accuracy for projected basal area and trees per acre was assessed for the growth and yield model of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Southern Variant (FVS-Sn). Data for comparison with FVS-Sn predictions were compiled from a collection of n

  20. Using FLUXNET data to improve models of springtime vegetation activity onset in forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melaas, E.; Richardson, A.; Friedl, M.; Dragoni, D.; Gough, C.; Herbst, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate change and variability, and is a first order control on the carbon budget of forest ecosystems. Robust representation of phenology is therefore needed to support model-based projections of how climate change will affect ecosystem function. A variety of

  1. Evaluating the SWAT model for a low-gradient forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; M.K. Jha.

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low�]gradient forested watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils of the coastal plain is a challenging task due to complexities in watershed delineation, microtopography, evapotranspiration, runoff generation processes and pathways including flooding and submergence caused by tropical storms, and complexity of vegetation species....

  2. Modeling forest ecosystem changes resulting from surface coal mining in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Brown; Andrew J. Lister; Mary Ann Fajvan; Bonnie Ruefenacht; Christine Mazzarella

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this project is to assess the effects of surface coal mining on forest ecosystem disturbance and restoration in the Coal River Subbasin in southern West Virginia. Our approach is to develop disturbance impact models for this subbasin that will serve as a case study for testing the feasibility of integrating currently available GIS data layers, remote...

  3. Sensitivity Analysis of Biome-Bgc Model for Dry Tropical Forests of Vindhyan Highlands, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Raghubanshi, A. S.

    2011-08-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to projected leaf area ratio and Canopy water interception coefficient (Wint). Therefore, these parameters need more precision and attention during estimation and observation in the field studies.

  4. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF BIOME-BGC MODEL FOR DRY TROPICAL FORESTS OF VINDHYAN HIGHLANDS, INDIA

    OpenAIRE

    M. Kumar; A. S. Raghubanshi

    2012-01-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to...

  5. Heterogeneous movement of insectivorous Amazonian birds through primary and secondary forest: A case study using multistate models with radiotelemetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, James; Powell, Luke L.; Wolfe, Jared D.; Johnson, Erik l.; Nichols, James D.; Stouffer, Phillip C.

    2015-01-01

    Given rates of deforestation, disturbance, and secondary forest accumulation in tropical rainforests, there is a great need to quantify habitat use and movement among different habitats. This need is particularly pronounced for animals most sensitive to disturbance, such as insectivorous understory birds. Here we use multistate capture–recapture models with radiotelemetry data to determine the successional stage at which within-day movement probabilities of Amazonian birds in secondary forest are similar to those in primary forest. We radio-tracked three common understory insectivore species in primary and secondary forest at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments project near Manaus, Brazil: two woodcreepers, Glyphorynchus spirurus (n = 19) andXiphorhynchus pardalotus (n = 18), and the terrestrial antthrush Formicarius colma(n = 19). Forest age was a strong predictor of fidelity to a given habitat. All three species showed greater fidelity to primary forest than to 8–14-year-old secondary forest, indicating the latter’s relatively poor quality. The two woodcreeper species used 12–18-year-old secondary forest in a manner comparable to continuous forest, but F. colmaavoided moving even to 27–31-year-old secondary forest—the oldest at our site. Our results suggest that managers concerned with less sensitive species can assume that forest reserves connected by 12–18-year-old secondary forest corridors are effectively connected. On the other hand, >30 years are required after land abandonment before secondary forest serves as a primary forest-like conduit for movement by F. colma; more sensitive terrestrial insectivores may take longer still.

  6. Aquatic insect assemblages associated with subalpine stream segment types in relict glaciated headwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubo, Joshua S.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Bolton, Susan M.; Weekes, Anne A.; Gara, Robert I.

    2013-01-01

    1. Aquatic habitats and biotic assemblages in subalpine headwaters are sensitive to climate and human impacts. Understanding biotic responses to such perturbations and the contribution of high-elevation headwaters to riverine biodiversity requires the assessment of assemblage composition among habitat types. We compared aquatic insect assemblages among headwater stream segment types in relict glaciated subalpine basins in Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington, USA. 2. Aquatic insects were collected during summer and autumn in three headwater basins. In each basin, three different stream segment types were sampled: colluvial groundwater sources, alluvial lake inlets, and cascade-bedrock lake outlets. Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis revealed high β diversity in aquatic insect assemblages, and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that spatial and temporal patterns in assemblage composition differed among headwater stream segment types. Aquatic insect assemblages showed more fidelity to stream segment types than to individual basins, and the principal environmental variables associated with assemblage structure were temperature and substrate. 3. Indicator species analyses identified specific aquatic insects associated with each stream segment type. Several rare and potentially endemic aquatic insect taxa were present, including the recently described species, Lednia borealis (Baumann and Kondratieff). 4. Our results indicate that aquatic insect assemblages in relict glaciated subalpine headwaters were strongly differentiated among stream segment types. These results illustrate the contribution of headwaters to riverine biodiversity and emphasise the importance of these habitats for monitoring biotic responses to climate change. Monitoring biotic assemblages in high-elevation headwaters is needed to prevent the potential loss of unique and sensitive biota.

  7. Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.

    2014-11-01

    This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

  8. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

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    Ismael Martins Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm with environmental and occurrence data, and produced geographic distribution maps. The results show that high species richness occurs in forest and coastal forest of Espírito Santo to Bahia states. The endemic species comprise D. flexuosa, D. macrocarpa, D. flexuosa, D. grandifolia, and D. sessilifolia. In the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil, the following endemic species occur: D. tintinnabulata and D. glaziovii, with this latter species being included in the “red list” due habitat loss and predatory extractivism. The indicators of species richness in the coastal region of Bahia correspond with floristic inventories that point to this area having a high biodiversity. Although this region has several protected areas, there are gaps in reserves, which, combined with anthropogenic threats and fragmentation, have caused several problems for biodiversity.

  9. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  10. Forest operations planning by using RTK-GPS based digital elevation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neşe Gülci

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Having large proportion of forests in mountainous terrain in Turkey, the logging methods that not only minimize operational costs but also minimize environmental damages should be determined in forest operations planning. In a case where necessary logging equipment and machines are available, ground slope is the most important factor in determining the logging method. For this reason, accurate, up to date, and precise ground slope data is very crucial in the success of forest operations planning. In recent years, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM can be generated for forested areas by using Real Time Kinematic (RTK GPS method and these DEMs can be used to develop precise slope maps. In this study, high-resolution DEM was developed by RTK-GPS method to generate precise slope map in a sample area. Then, the slope map was classified into slope classes specified by IUFRO in order to assist forest operations planning. According to the results, logging methods that are suitable for very steep and steep terrain conditions (i.e. skyline logging, cable pulling, and chute systems should be preferred in 48.1% of the study area. It was also found that logging methods that are suitable for terrain with medium slope (i.e. skidding and cable pulling and gentle slope (i.e. skidding and mobile winch should be preferred in 34.1% and 17.8% of the study area, respectively.

  11. Developments to the Sylvan stand structure model to describe wood quality changes in southern bottomland hardwood forests because of forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian R. Scott

    2009-01-01

    Growth models can produce a wealth of detailed information that is often very difficult to perceive because it is frequently presented either as summary tables, stand view or landscape view visualizations. We have developed new tools for use with the Sylvan model (Larsen 1994) that allow the analysis of wood-quality changes as a consequence of forest management....

  12. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  13. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  14. Effect of different tree mortality patterns on stand development in the forest model SIBYLA

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    Trombik Jiří

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest mortality critically affects stand structure and the quality of ecosystem services provided by forests. Spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus generates rather complex infestation and mortality patterns, and implementation of such patterns in forest models is challenging. We present here the procedure, which allows to simulate the bark beetle-related tree mortality in the forest dynamics model Sibyla. We explored how sensitive various production and stand structure indicators are to tree mortality patterns, which can be generated by bark beetles. We compared the simulation outputs for three unmanaged forest stands with 40, 70 and 100% proportion of spruce as affected by the disturbance-related mortality that occurred in a random pattern and in a patchy pattern. The used tree species and age class-specific mortality rates were derived from the disturbance-related mortality records from Slovakia. The proposed algorithm was developed in the SQLite using the Python language, and the algorithm allowed us to define the degree of spatial clustering of dead trees ranging from a random distribution to a completely clustered distribution; a number of trees that died in either mode is set to remain equal. We found significant differences between the long-term developments of the three investigated forest stands, but we found very little effect of the tested mortality modes on stand increment, tree species composition and diversity, and tree size diversity. Hence, our hypothesis that the different pattern of dead trees emergence should affect the competitive interactions between trees and regeneration, and thus affect selected productivity and stand structure indicators was not confirmed.

  15. Human radiation dose resulting from forests contaminated by radionuclides: generic model and applications to the Chernobyl ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, I.; Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have been found to contribute significantly to the human radiation dose in the intermediate and long teens following radionuclide releases. Evaluation of the internal and external radiation dose for these critical population groups requires knowledge of radionuclide transport processes in forest ecosystems, as well as the extent of forest utilization by these populations. The high complexity of the problem requires the use of models to define and analyze the properties of the forest as well as to evaluate the ecosystem response to possible human intervention. A generic FORESTPATH model is used to calculate the internal and external radiation doses for different critical groups of consumers at different times following radionuclide release. The model is tested using the information available for contaminated forests in Belarus. Uncertainty of the model predictions are estimated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. (author)

  16. Forest Growth and Yield Models Viewed From a Different Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery C. Goelz

    2002-01-01

    Typically, when different forms of growth and yield models are considered, they are grouped into convenient discrete classes. As a heuristic device, I chose to use a contrasting perspective, that all growth and yield models are diameter distribution models that merely differ in regard to which diameter distribution is employed and how the distribution is projected to...

  17. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

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    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  18. Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all

  19. Species richness and soil properties in Pinus ponderosa forests: A structural equation modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, D.C.; Abella, S.R.; Covington, W.W.; Grace, J.B.

    2007-01-01

    Question: How are the effects of mineral soil properties on understory plant species richness propagated through a network of processes involving the forest overstory, soil organic matter, soil nitrogen, and understory plant abundance? Location: North-central Arizona, USA. Methods: We sampled 75 0.05-ha plots across a broad soil gradient in a Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) forest ecosystem. We evaluated multivariate models of plant species richness using structural equation modeling. Results: Richness was highest at intermediate levels of understory plant cover, suggesting that both colonization success and competitive exclusion can limit richness in this system. We did not detect a reciprocal positive effect of richness on plant cover. Richness was strongly related to soil nitrogen in the model, with evidence for both a direct negative effect and an indirect non-linear relationship mediated through understory plant cover. Soil organic matter appeared to have a positive influence on understory richness that was independent of soil nitrogen. Richness was lowest where the forest overstory was densest, which can be explained through indirect effects on soil organic matter, soil nitrogen and understory cover. Finally, model results suggest a variety of direct and indirect processes whereby mineral soil properties can influence richness. Conclusions: Understory plant species richness and plant cover in P. ponderosa forests appear to be significantly influenced by soil organic matter and nitrogen, which are, in turn, related to overstory density and composition and mineral soil properties. Thus, soil properties can impose direct and indirect constraints on local species diversity in ponderosa pine forests. ?? IAVS; Opulus Press.

  20. Evaluation and improvement of the Community Land Model (CLM4 in Oregon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. W. Hudiburg

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem process models are important tools for determining the interactive effects of global change and disturbance on forest carbon dynamics. Here we evaluated and improved terrestrial carbon cycling simulated by the Community Land Model (CLM4, the land model portion of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4. Our analysis was conducted primarily in Oregon forests using FLUXNET and forest inventory data for the period 2001–2006. We go beyond prior modeling studies in the region by incorporating regional variation in physiological parameters from >100 independent field sites in the region. We also compare spatial patterns of simulated forest carbon stocks and net primary production (NPP at 15 km resolution using data collected from federal forest inventory plots (FIA from >3000 plots in the study region. Finally, we evaluate simulated gross primary production (GPP with FLUXNET eddy covariance tower data at wet and dry sites in the region. We improved model estimates by making modifications to CLM4 to allow physiological parameters (e.g., foliage carbon to nitrogen ratios and specific leaf area, mortality rate, biological nitrogen fixation, and wood allocation to vary spatially by plant functional type (PFT within an ecoregion based on field plot data in the region. Prior to modifications, default parameters resulted in underestimation of stem biomass in all forested ecoregions except the Blue Mountains and annual NPP was both over- and underestimated. After modifications, model estimates of mean NPP fell within the observed range of uncertainty in all ecoregions (two-sided P value = 0.8, and the underestimation of stem biomass was reduced. This was an improvement from the default configuration by 50% for stem biomass and 30% for NPP. At the tower sites, modeled monthly GPP fell within the observed range of uncertainty at both sites for the majority of the year, however summer GPP was underestimated at the Metolius semi

  1. Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallman, Thomas Luke; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, Anthony; Williams, Mathew

    2017-04-01

    Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used for estimating carbon budgets, but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha-1 yr-1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha-1yr-1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for (LCA) retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with

  2. Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Ross F.

    2010-01-01

    Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) / Geosciences Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 X 10(exp 6) square km study area in the Province of Quebec, Canada, below the tree line. The same input datasets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include non-stratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (biomass)(exp 0.5) serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial dry biomass estimates of up to 0.35 G, with a range of 4.94 +/- 0.28 Gt to 5.29 +/-0.36 Gt. The differences among model estimates are statistically non-significant, however, and the results demonstrate the degree to which carbon estimates vary strictly as a function of the model used to estimate regional biomass. Results also indicate that GLAS measurements become problematic with respect to height and biomass retrievals in the boreal forest when biomass values fall below 20 t/ha and when GLAS 75th percentile heights fall below 7 m.

  3. Simulating Urban Growth Using a Random Forest-Cellular Automata (RF-CA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courage Kamusoko

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban planning and management require reliable land change models, which can be used to improve decision making. The objective of this study was to test a random forest-cellular automata (RF-CA model, which combines random forest (RF and cellular automata (CA models. The Kappa simulation (KSimulation, figure of merit, and components of agreement and disagreement statistics were used to validate the RF-CA model. Furthermore, the RF-CA model was compared with support vector machine cellular automata (SVM-CA and logistic regression cellular automata (LR-CA models. Results show that the RF-CA model outperformed the SVM-CA and LR-CA models. The RF-CA model had a Kappa simulation (KSimulation accuracy of 0.51 (with a figure of merit statistic of 47%, while SVM-CA and LR-CA models had a KSimulation accuracy of 0.39 and −0.22 (with figure of merit statistics of 39% and 6%, respectively. Generally, the RF-CA model was relatively accurate at allocating “non-built-up to built-up” changes as reflected by the correct “non-built-up to built-up” components of agreement of 15%. The performance of the RF-CA model was attributed to the relatively accurate RF transition potential maps. Therefore, this study highlights the potential of the RF-CA model for simulating urban growth.

  4. A Toolkit Modeling Approach for Sustainable Forest Management Planning: Achieving Balance between Science and Local Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian R. Sturtevant

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available To assist forest managers in balancing an increasing diversity of resource objectives, we developed a toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management (SFM. The approach inserts a meta-modeling strategy into a collaborative modeling framework grounded in adaptive management philosophy that facilitates participation among stakeholders, decision makers, and local domain experts in the meta-model building process. The modeling team works iteratively with each of these groups to define essential questions, identify data resources, and then determine whether available tools can be applied or adapted, or whether new tools can be rapidly created to fit the need. The desired goal of the process is a linked series of domain-specific models (tools that balances generalized "top-down" models (i.e., scientific models developed without input from the local system with case-specific customized "bottom-up" models that are driven primarily by local needs. Information flow between models is organized according to vertical (i.e., between scale and horizontal (i.e., within scale dimensions. We illustrate our approach within a 2.1 million hectare forest planning district in central Labrador, a forested landscape where social and ecological values receive a higher priority than economic values. However, the focus of this paper is on the process of how SFM modeling tools and concepts can be rapidly assembled and applied in new locations, balancing efficient transfer of science with adaptation to local needs. We use the Labrador case study to illustrate strengths and challenges uniquely associated with a meta-modeling approach to integrated modeling as it fits within the broader collaborative modeling framework. Principle advantages of the approach include the scientific rigor introduced by peer-reviewed models, combined with the adaptability of meta-modeling. A key challenge is the limited transparency of scientific models to different participatory groups

  5. Elevated CO2 induces changes in the ecohydrological functions of forests - from mechanisms to models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pötzelsberger, Elisabeth; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Thornton, Peter E.; Norby, Richard J.; Hasenauer, Hubert

    2010-05-01

    Forests are known to considerably influence ecosystem water balance as a result of the many dynamic interactions between the plant physiology, morphology, phenology and other biophysical properties and environmental conditions. A changing climate will exert a new environmental setting for the forests and the biological feedbacks will be considerable. With the mechanistic ecosystem model Biome-BGC the dense net of cause-response relationships among carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles at a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site in a North American deciduous broadleaved forest can be represented. At the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) closed canopy sweetgum plantation elevated CO2 caused a decrease in stomatal conductance, and concurrent changes in daily transpiration were observed. This is in agreement with data from other FACE experiments. At the ORNL FACE site average transpiration reduction in a growing season was 10-16%, with 7-16% during mid summer, depending on the year. After parameterization of the model for this ecosystem the observed transpiration patterns could be well represented. Most importantly, the complete water budget at the site could be described and increased outflow could be observed (~15%). This yields crucial information for broader scale future water budget simulations. Changes in the water balance of deciduous forests will affect a wide range of ecosystem functions, from decomposition, over carbon and nutrient cycling to plant-plant competition and species composition.

  6. Modeling the Influence of Forest Structure on Microsite Habitat Use by Snowshoe Hares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela K. Fuller

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus is an important prey species for many Carnivora and has strong influences on community structure and function in northern forests. An understanding of within-stand (microsite forest structural characteristics that promote high use by hares is important to provide forest management guidelines. We measured forest structural characteristics at the microsite-scale in north-central Maine and used an information-theoretic modeling approach to infer which characteristics were most strongly associated with use by hares during winter. We measured overwinter hare pellet density to model relationships among microsite-scale vegetation structure and hare use. Overwinter pellet density was positively associated with live stem cover (3 × coniferous saplings + deciduous saplings and negatively associated with overstory canopy closure; the two variables explained 71% of the variation in microsite use by hares. The highest pellet densities were in grids with canopy closure 22,000 stems/ha. Silvicultural practices that create dense areas of conifer and deciduous saplings should receive high within-stand use by hares in winter. These conditions can be achieved by promoting the release of advanced regeneration and reducing overstory cover to encourage establishment of shade-intolerant species; clearcutting is one such silvicultural prescription to achieve these conditions.

  7. Modeling the Effects of Harvest Alternatives on Mitigating Oak Decline in a Central Hardwood Forest Landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen J Wang

    Full Text Available Oak decline is a process induced by complex interactions of predisposing factors, inciting factors, and contributing factors operating at tree, stand, and landscape scales. It has greatly altered species composition and stand structure in affected areas. Thinning, clearcutting, and group selection are widely adopted harvest alternatives for reducing forest vulnerability to oak decline by removing susceptible species and declining trees. However, the long-term, landscape-scale effects of these different harvest alternatives are not well studied because of the limited availability of experimental data. In this study, we applied a forest landscape model in combination with field studies to evaluate the effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a Central Hardwood Forest landscape. Results showed that the potential oak decline in high risk sites decreased strongly in the next five decades irrespective of harvest alternatives. This is because oak decline is a natural process and forest succession (e.g., high tree mortality resulting from intense competition would eventually lead to the decrease in oak decline in this area. However, forest harvesting did play a role in mitigating oak decline and the effectiveness varied among the three harvest alternatives. The group selection and clearcutting alternatives were most effective in mitigating oak decline in the short and medium terms, respectively. The long-term effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline became less discernible as the role of succession increased. The thinning alternative had the highest biomass retention over time, followed by the group selection and clearcutting alternatives. The group selection alternative that balanced treatment effects and retaining biomass was the most viable alternative for managing oak decline. Insights from this study may be useful in developing effective and informed forest harvesting plans for managing oak

  8. Physically-Based Modelling of the Post-Fire Runoff Response of a Forest Catchment in Central Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eck, Van Christel M.; Nunes, Joao P.; Vieira, Diana C.S.; Keesstra, Saskia; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2016-01-01

    Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in Mediterranean forests, with impacts for human landscapes and communities, which must be understood before they can be managed. This study used the physically based Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) to simulate rainfall–runoff response, under soil water

  9. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  10. Predicting surface fuel models and fuel metrics using lidar and CIR imagery in a dense mixed conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marek K. Jakubowksi; Qinghua Guo; Brandon Collins; Scott Stephens; Maggi. Kelly

    2013-01-01

    We compared the ability of several classification and regression algorithms to predict forest stand structure metrics and standard surface fuel models. Our study area spans a dense, topographically complex Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest. We used clustering, regression trees, and support vector machine algorithms to analyze high density (average 9 pulses/m

  11. Influence of forest roads standards and networks on water yield as predicted by the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salli F. Dymond; W. Michael Aust; Steven P. Prisley; Mark H. Eisenbies; James M. Vose

    2013-01-01

    Throughout the country, foresters are continually looking at the effects of logging and forest roads on stream discharge and overall stream health. In the Pacific Northwest, a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) has been used to predict the effects of logging on peak discharge in mountainous regions. DHSVM uses elevation, meteorological, vegetation, and...

  12. The Sylview graphical interface to the SYLVAN STAND STRUCTURE model with examples from southern bottomland hardwood forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Larsen; Ian Scott

    2010-01-01

    In the field of forestry, the output of forest growth models provide a wealth of detailed information that can often be difficult to analyze and perceive due to presentation either as plain text summary tables or static stand visualizations. This paper describes the design and implementation of a cross-platform computer application for dynamic and interactive forest...

  13. Transpiration and CO2 fluxes of a pine forest: modelling the undergrowth effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rivalland

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available A modelling study is performed in order to quantify the relative effect of allowing for the physiological properties of an undergrowth grass sward on total canopy water and carbon fluxes of the Le-Bray forest (Les-Landes, South-western France. The Le-Bray forest consists of maritime pine and an herbaceous undergrowth (purple moor-grass, which is characterised by a low stomatal control of transpiration, in contrast to maritime pine. A CO2-responsive land surface model is used that includes responses of woody and herbaceous species to water stress. An attempt is made to represent the properties of the undergrowth vegetation in the land surface model Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere, CO2-responsive, ISBA-A-gs. The new adjustment allows for a fairly different environmental response between the forest canopy and the understory in a simple manner. The model's simulations are compared with long term (1997 and 1998 micro-meteorological measurements over the Le-Bray site. The fluxes of energy, water and CO2, are simulated with and without the improved representation of the undergrowth vegetation, and the two simulations are compared with the observations. Accounting for the undergrowth permits one to improve the model's scores. A simple sensitivity experiment shows the behaviour of the model in response to climate change conditions, and the understory effect on the water balance and carbon storage of the forest. Accounting for the distinct characteristics of the undergrowth has a substantial and positive effect on the model accuracy and leads to a different response to climate change scenarios.

  14. A Modified Gash Model for Estimating Rainfall Interception Loss of Forest Using Remote Sensing Observations at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaokui Cui

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss of forest is an important component of water balance in a forested ecosystem. The Gash analytical model has been widely used to estimate the forest interception loss at field scale. In this study, we proposed a simple model to estimate rainfall interception loss of heterogeneous forest at regional scale with several reasonable assumptions using remote sensing observations. The model is a modified Gash analytical model using easily measured parameters of forest structure from satellite data and extends the original Gash model from point-scale to the regional scale. Preliminary results, using remote sensing data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products, field measured rainfall data, and meteorological data of the Automatic Weather Station (AWS over a picea crassifolia forest in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, showed reasonable accuracy in estimating rainfall interception loss at both the Dayekou experimental site (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.34 mm∙d −1 and the Pailugou experimental site (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.6 mm∙d −1, compared with ground measurements based on per unit area of forest. The interception loss map of the study area was shown to be strongly heterogeneous. The modified model has robust physics and is insensitive to the input parameters, according to the sensitivity analysis using numerical simulations. The modified model appears to be stable and easy to be applied for operational estimation of interception loss over large areas.

  15. Model-Assisted Estimation of Tropical Forest Biomass Change: A Comparison of Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolai Knapp

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of changes in forest biomass requires accurate transfer functions between remote sensing-derived changes in canopy height (ΔH and the actual changes in aboveground biomass (ΔAGB. Different approaches can be used to accomplish this task: direct approaches link ΔH directly to ΔAGB, while indirect approaches are based on deriving AGB stock estimates for two points in time and calculating the difference. In some studies, direct approaches led to more accurate estimations, while, in others, indirect approaches led to more accurate estimations. It is unknown how each approach performs under different conditions and over the full range of possible changes. Here, we used a forest model (FORMIND to generate a large dataset (>28,000 ha of natural and disturbed forest stands over time. Remote sensing of forest height was simulated on these stands to derive canopy height models for each time step. Three approaches for estimating ΔAGB were compared: (i the direct approach; (ii the indirect approach and (iii an enhanced direct approach (dir+tex, using ΔH in combination with canopy texture. Total prediction accuracies of the three approaches measured as root mean squared errors (RMSE were RMSEdirect = 18.7 t ha−1, RMSEindirect = 12.6 t ha−1 and RMSEdir+tex = 12.4 t ha−1. Further analyses revealed height-dependent biases in the ΔAGB estimates of the direct approach, which did not occur with the other approaches. Finally, the three approaches were applied on radar-derived (TanDEM-X canopy height changes on Barro Colorado Island (Panama. The study demonstrates the potential of forest modeling for improving the interpretation of changes observed in remote sensing data and for comparing different methodologies.

  16. Measurement and modeling of bryophyte evaporation in a boreal forest chronosequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Gower, Stith T.; Amiro, Brian; Ewers, Brent

    2011-01-19

    The effects of changing climate and disturbance on forest water cycling are not well understood. In particular bryophytes contribute significantly to forest evapotranspiration (ET) in poorly-drained boreal forests, but few studies have directly measured this flux and how it changes with stand age and soil drainage. We used large chambers to measure bryophyte evaporation (E) in Canadian Picea mariana forests of varying ages and soil drainages, as well under controlled laboratory conditions, and modeled daily E using site-specific meteorological data to drive a Penman-Monteith-based model. Field measurements of E averaged 0.37 mm day-1, and ranged from 0.03 (Pleurozium schreberii in a 77-year-old dry stand) to 1.43 mm day-1 (Sphagnum riparium in a 43-year-old bog). canopy resistance ranged from ~0 (at 25 °C, some values were <0) to ~1500 s m-1 for dry, cold (5 °C) mosses. In the laboratory, moss canopy resistance was constant until a moss water content of ~6 g g-1 and then climbed sharply with further drying; no difference was observed between the three moss groups (feather mosses, hollow mosses, and hummock mosses) tested. Modeled annual E fluxes from bryophytes ranged from 0.4 mm day-1, in the well-drained stands, to ~1 mm day-1 in the 43-year-old bog, during the growing season. Eddy covariance data imply that bryophytes contributed 18-31% and 49-69% to the total ET flux, at the well- and poorly-drained stands respectively. Bryophyte E was greater in bogs than in upland stands, was driven by low-lying mosses, and did not vary with stand age; this suggests that shifts in forest age due to increasing fire will have little effect on the bryophyte contribution to ET.

  17. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  18. Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro G Gutiérrez

    Full Text Available Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S. The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area. We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

  19. Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Armesto, Juan J; Díaz, M Francisca; Huth, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

  20. Model for absorption and release of gaseous materials by forest canopies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, C.E. Jr.

    1976-01-01

    A model of the physical processes defining the absorption and release of materials by a forest canopy has been developed. The model deals with the turbulent transport of gaseous materials in the surface boundary layer near the canopy, the turbulent transport in the canopy atmosphere, the transport through the boundary layer near the leaf and soil surface, and the solution of the gaseous materials in intracellular fluids and subsequent diffusion into the leaf cells. The model is used to simulate the uptake of molecular tritium by the forest canopy and the subsequent release of tritiated water. Results of dynamic simulations of tritium uptake and release are compared with data collected at the time of a release of molecular tritium to the atmosphere

  1. Linear compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1977-01-01

    Systems ecology techniques have been useful in simulating the fate and dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. The applications of systems models in this context are twofold: projection of the time-dependent distribution of radioisotopes among various ecosystems components, and manipulation of the modeled system to determine the sensitivity of components to variation in transfer coefficients and, thereby, identify critical fluxes affecting system behavior. The present paper describes a systems model that projects the possible fate of plutonium in a deciduous forest ecosystem. The isotopes of interest are 239 Pu and 240 Pu which have physical half lives of 2.44 x 10 4 and 6540 years, respectively. These isotopes are indistinguishable by alpha spectrometry hence 239 Pu is used to refer to both

  2. Estimation of Carbon Flux of Forest Ecosystem over Qilian Mountains by BIOME-BGC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei

    2014-11-01

    The gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are important indicators for carbon fluxes. This study aims at evaluating the forest GPP and NEE over the Qilian Mountains using meteorological, remotely sensed and other ancillary data at large scale. To realize this, the widely used ecological-process-based model, Biome-BGC, and remote-sensing-based model, MODIS GPP algorithm, were selected for the simulation of the forest carbon fluxes. The combination of these two models was based on calibrating the Biome-BGC by the optimized MODIS GPP algorithm. The simulated GPP and NEE values were evaluated against the eddy covariance observed GPPs and NEEs, and the well agreements have been reached, with R2=0.76, 0.67 respectively.

  3. Modeling the height of young forests regenerating from recent disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ainong; Huang, Chengquan; Sun, Guoqing; Shi, Hua; Toney, Chris; Zhu, Zhiliang; Rollins, Matthew G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Masek, Jeffery G.

    2011-01-01

    Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat–lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, “young” forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS–VCT disturbance products. The height of “young” forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS–VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS–VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R2 and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing

  4. Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ainong; Huang, Chengquan; Sun, Guoqing; Shi, Hua; Toney, Chris; Zhu, Zhiliang; Rollins, Matthew G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Masek, Jeffrey G.

    2011-01-01

    Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in

  5. Subalpine bumble bee foraging distances and densities in relation to flower availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Susan E

    2009-06-01

    Bees feed almost exclusively on nectar and pollen from flowers. However, little is known about how food availability limits bee populations, especially in high elevation areas. Foraging distances and relationships between forager densities and resource availability can provide insights into the potential for food limitation in mobile consumer populations. For example, if floral resources are limited, bee consumers should fly farther to forage, and they should be more abundant in areas with more flowers. I estimated subalpine bumble bee foraging distances by calculating forager recapture probabilities at increasing distances from eight marking locations. I measured forager and flower densities over the flowering season in six half-hectare plots. Because subalpine bumble bees have little time to build their colonies, they may forage over short distances and forager density may not be constrained by flower density. However, late in the season, when floral resources dwindle, foraging distances may increase, and there may be stronger relationships between forager and flower densities. Throughout the flowering season, marked bees were primarily found within 100 m (and never >1,000 m) from their original marking location, suggesting that they typically did not fly far to forage. Although the density of early season foraging queens increased with early-season flower density, the density of mid- and late-season workers and males did not vary with flower density. Short foraging distances and no relationships between mid- and late-season forager and flower densities suggest that high elevation bumble bees may have ample floral resources for colony growth reproduction.

  6. Evaluation of several priority pollutants in zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in the largest Italian subalpine lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riva, Consuelo; Binelli, Andrea; Provini, Alfredo

    2008-01-01

    Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) has been used for the biomonitoring of several POPs (PCBs, DDTs, HCB and HCHs) in the largest Italian subalpine great lakes (Lake Maggiore, Garda, Como, Iseo and Lugano). Samplings were carried out in April 2003 at 15 locations selected according to industrial and anthropic levels of lakes. Results have pointed out high DDT levels in D. polymorpha specimens from Lake Maggiore (700-1400 ng/g lipids, 5-9 times higher than those measured in mussels of other Italian lakes), due to a contamination from a chemical plant located on one of the main lake inlet that occurred in 1996. On the contrary, PCB levels (400-2509 ng/g lipids) highlighted an overall pollution, with some sporadic peaks of contamination. Data showed a moderate increase trend compared to those found in a previous monitoring campaign carried out in 1996. Future monitoring is needed in order to confirm this tendency. - Significant levels of DDTs and PCBs are still present in the Italian subalpine great lakes

  7. Evaluation of several priority pollutants in zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in the largest Italian subalpine lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riva, Consuelo [Department of Biology, Ecology Section, University of Milan, Via Celoria 26, 20133 Milan (Italy)], E-mail: consuelo.riva@unimi.it; Binelli, Andrea; Provini, Alfredo [Department of Biology, Ecology Section, University of Milan, Via Celoria 26, 20133 Milan (Italy)

    2008-02-15

    Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) has been used for the biomonitoring of several POPs (PCBs, DDTs, HCB and HCHs) in the largest Italian subalpine great lakes (Lake Maggiore, Garda, Como, Iseo and Lugano). Samplings were carried out in April 2003 at 15 locations selected according to industrial and anthropic levels of lakes. Results have pointed out high DDT levels in D. polymorpha specimens from Lake Maggiore (700-1400 ng/g lipids, 5-9 times higher than those measured in mussels of other Italian lakes), due to a contamination from a chemical plant located on one of the main lake inlet that occurred in 1996. On the contrary, PCB levels (400-2509 ng/g lipids) highlighted an overall pollution, with some sporadic peaks of contamination. Data showed a moderate increase trend compared to those found in a previous monitoring campaign carried out in 1996. Future monitoring is needed in order to confirm this tendency. - Significant levels of DDTs and PCBs are still present in the Italian subalpine great lakes.

  8. Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

    2016-05-01

    Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... in West Africa. Generic models were also developed for the forest ecosystem, and basic wood density determined for the tree species. Non-destructive sampling approach was carried out on five hundred and one sample trees to analyse stem volume and biomass. From the modelling of volume and biomass...... enabled to conclude that the non-destructive sampling was a good approach to determining reliable basic wood density. The comparative analysis of species-specific models in this study with selected generic models for tropical forests indicated low probability to identify effective generic models with good...

  10. Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce-fir forests in southwestern Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrus, Robert A; Veblen, Thomas T; Harvey, Brian J; Hart, Sarah J

    2016-04-01

    Recent large and severe outbreaks of native bark beetles have raised concern among the general public and land managers about potential for amplified fire activity in western North America. To date, the majority of studies examining bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fire severity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have focused on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests, but few studies, particularly field studies, have addressed the effects of the severity of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) infestation on subsequent fire severity in subalpine Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. In Colorado, the annual area infested by spruce beetle outbreaks is rapidly rising, while MPB outbreaks are subsiding; therefore understanding this relationship is of growing importance. We collected extensive field data in subalpine forests in the eastern San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, USA, to investigate whether a gray-stage (fire) spruce beetle infestation affected fire severity. Contrary to the expectation that bark beetle infestation alters subsequent fire severity, correlation and multivariate generalized linear regression analysis revealed no influence of pre-fire spruce beetle severity on nearly all field or remotely sensed measurements of fire severity. Findings were consistent across moderate and extreme burning conditions. In comparison to severity of the pre-fire beetle outbreak, we found that topography, pre-outbreak basal area, and weather conditions exerted a stronger effect on fire severity. Our finding that beetle infestation did not alter fire severity is consistent with previous retrospective studies examining fire activity following other bark beetle outbreaks and reiterates the overriding influence of climate that creates conditions conducive to large, high-severity fires in the subalpine zone of Colorado. Both bark beetle outbreaks and

  11. Applying genetic algorithms to set the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and model forest fire susceptibility based on data mining models. The case of Dayu County, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Xu, Chong

    2018-07-15

    The main objective of the present study was to utilize Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to obtain the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and apply data mining methods for constructing a forest fire susceptibility map. In the proposed approach, a Random Forest (RF) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to produce a forest fire susceptibility map for the Dayu County which is located in southwest of Jiangxi Province, China. For this purpose, historic forest fires and thirteen forest fire related variables were analyzed, namely: elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land use, soil cover, heat load index, normalized difference vegetation index, mean annual temperature, mean annual wind speed, mean annual rainfall, distance to river network and distance to road network. The Natural Break and the Certainty Factor method were used to classify and weight the thirteen variables, while a multicollinearity analysis was performed to determine the correlation among the variables and decide about their usability. The optimal set of variables, determined by the GA limited the number of variables into eight excluding from the analysis, aspect, land use, heat load index, distance to river network and mean annual rainfall. The performance of the forest fire models was evaluated by using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) based on the validation dataset. Overall, the RF models gave higher AUC values. Also the results showed that the proposed optimized models outperform the original models. Specifically, the optimized RF model gave the best results (0.8495), followed by the original RF (0.8169), while the optimized SVM gave lower values (0.7456) than the RF, however higher than the original SVM (0.7148) model. The study highlights the significance of feature selection techniques in forest fire susceptibility, whereas data mining methods could be considered as a valid approach for forest fire susceptibility modeling

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