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Sample records for models require future

  1. Generic skills requirements (KSA model) towards future mechanical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Generic Skills is a basic requirement that engineers need to master in all areas of Engineering. This study was conducted throughout the peninsular Malaysia involving small, medium and heavy industries using the KSA Model. The objectives of this study are studying the level of requirement of Generic Skills that need to be ...

  2. Bioenergy crop models: Descriptions, data requirements and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Zhang, Xuesong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Miguez, Fernando [Iowa State University; Izaurralde, Dr. R. Cesar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Dietze, Michael [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Lynd, L. [Dartmouth College; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Field studies that address the production of lignocellulosic biomass as a source of renewable energy provide critical data for the development of bioenergy crop models. A literature survey revealed that 14 models have been used for simulating bioenergy crops including herbaceous and woody bioenergy crops, and for crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) crops. These models simulate field-scale production of biomass for switchgrass (ALMANAC, EPIC, and Agro-BGC), miscanthus (MISCANFOR, MISCANMOD, and WIMOVAC), sugarcane (APSIM, AUSCANE, and CANEGRO), and poplar and willow (SECRETS and 3PG). Two models are adaptations of dynamic global vegetation models and simulate biomass yields of miscanthus and sugarcane at regional scales (Agro-IBIS and LPJmL). Although it lacks the complexity of other bioenergy crop models, the environmental productivity index (EPI) is the only model used to estimate biomass production of CAM (Agave and Opuntia) plants. Except for the EPI model, all models include representations of leaf area dynamics, phenology, radiation interception and utilization, biomass production, and partitioning of biomass to roots and shoots. A few models simulate soil water, nutrient, and carbon cycle dynamics, making them especially useful for assessing the environmental consequences (e.g., erosion and nutrient losses) associated with the large-scale deployment of bioenergy crops. The rapid increase in use of models for energy crop simulation is encouraging; however, detailed information on the influence of climate, soils, and crop management practices on biomass production is scarce. Thus considerable work remains regarding the parameterization and validation of process-based models for bioenergy crops; generation and distribution of high-quality field data for model development and validation; and implementation of an integrated framework for efficient, high-resolution simulations of biomass production for use in planning sustainable bioenergy systems.

  3. Future Home Network Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charbonnier, Benoit; Wessing, Henrik; Lannoo, Bart

    This paper presents the requirements for future Home Area Networks (HAN). Firstly, we discuss the applications and services as well as their requirements. Then, usage scenarios are devised to establish a first specification for the HAN. The main requirements are an increased bandwidth (towards 1...

  4. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  5. Resource requirements, impacts, and potential constraints associated with various energy futures. Annual report. [Energy Supply Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallagher, J.M.; Barany, R.; Paskert, P.F.; Zimmerman, R.G.J.

    1977-03-01

    This is the first annual report describing an effort by Bechtel Corporation to adapt and apply the Energy Supply Planning Model (ESPM) to the support of the systems analysis activities of the United States Energy Research and Development Administration. Office of the Assistant Administrator for Planning Analysis and Evaluation (ERDA/APAE). The primary emphasis of this program is the identification of resource requirements and the associated impacts and potential constraints associated with various future energy options for this country. Accomplishments in 1976 include model application and analysis of energy scenarios derived from the 1976 update of the ERDA National Plan and the ''1976 National Energy Outlook'' of the Federal Energy Administration; analysis of the availability of engineers, manual manpower, and selected materials and equipment commodities; addition of aluminum, carbon steel, and alloy steel materials requirements to the model data base; the addition of several kinds of energy facilities to the modeling system; and refinement of the various aspects of the model and data base. This program shows the need for a clear statement of national energy policy.

  6. ATLAS Future Framework Requirements Group Report

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The Future Frameworks Requirements Group was constituted in Summer 2013 to consider and summarise the framework requirements from trigger and offline for configuring, scheduling and monitoring the data processing software needed by the ATLAS experiment. The principal motivation for such a re-examination arises from the current and anticipated evolution of CPUs, where multiple cores, hyper-threading and wide vector registers require a shift to a concurrent programming model. Such a model requires extensive changes in the current Gaudi/Athena frameworks and offers the opportunity to consider how HLT and offline processing can be better accommodated within the ATLAS framework. This note contains the report of the Future Frameworks Requirements Group.

  7. Key requirements for future control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinelli, Mattia

    2016-01-01

    system operation as well as experiences and results from other European projects. On the other hand, it analyses what requirements for future control rooms arise from the ELECTRA proposed control solutions. Hence, different points of view are taken into account. The ELECTRA Use Cases (UCs...... requirements for the future control centres discussed within this report. The analysis of what happened before the European system disturbance occurred on 4th November 2006 and of the existing trends by vendors helped T8.1 in the definition of the requirements for the future control centres. Volunteer......This internal report provides the key requirements for the future control centres. R8.1 represents the starting point of WP8 activities and wants to achieve a double objective. On the one hand it collects general requirements on future control centres emerging from the general trends in power...

  8. Planning to meet future manpower requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deutsch, R.W.

    1975-01-01

    Most organizations in the nuclear industry will have to hire inexperienced personnel who may also lack academic qualifications in order to satisfy their future manpower requirements. It will be necessary to utilize appropriate in-house training programs to prepare personnel for particular job responsibilities as well as meet quality assurance requirements that satisfy NRC and ANSI standards. In particular, these programs will have to be directed at providing future sources of engineers, operators, and technicians. Specific programs for engineers, commercial plant operators, and technicians and maintenance personnel are described. It is the responsibility of management of major organizations in the industry to initiate and implement training programs that will provide the necessary numbers of trained personnel

  9. NASA's future space power needs and requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnyer, A. D.; Sovie, Ronald J.

    1990-01-01

    The National Space Policy of 1988 established the U.S.'s long-range civil space goals, and has served to guide NASA's recent planning for future space mission operations. One of the major goals was to extend the human presence beyond earth's boundaries and to advance the scientific knowledge of the solar system. A broad spectrum of potential civil space mission opportunities and interests are currently being investigated by NASA to meet the espoused goals. Participation in many of these missions requires power systems with capabilities far beyond what exists today. In other mission examples, advanced power systems technology could enhance mission performance significantly. Power system requirements and issues that need resolution to ensure eventual mission accomplishment are addressed, in conjunction with the ongoing NASA technology development efforts and the need for even greater innovative efforts to match the ambitious solar exploration mission goals. Particular attention is given to potential lunar surface operations and technology goals, based on investigations to date. It is suggested that the nuclear reactor power systems can best meet long-life requirements as well as dramatically reduce the earth-surface-to-lunar-surface transportation costs due to the lunar day/night cycle impact on the solar system's energy storage mass requirements. The state of the art of candidate power systems and elements for the lunar application and the respective exploration technology goals for mission life requirements from 10 to 25 years are examined.

  10. Global Water Availability and Requirements for Future Food Production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Hoff, H.; Biemans, H.; Fader, M.; Waha, K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was

  11. Current and Future Research Directions in Requirements Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Betty H. C.; Atlee, Joanne M.

    In this paper, we review current requirements engineering (RE) research and identify future research directions suggested by emerging software needs. First, we overview the state of the art in RE research. The research is considered with respect to technologies developed to address specific requirements tasks, such as elicitation, modeling, and analysis. Such a review enables us to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that warrant further investigation. Next, we review several strategies for performing and extending RE research results, to help delineate the scope of future research directions. Finally, we highlight what we consider to be the “hot” current and future research topics, which aim to address RE needs for emerging systems of the future.

  12. Sediment processes in estuaries: Future research requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, K. R.

    1989-10-01

    The gaps in current understanding of the erosion, transport and deposition of sediment in estuaries are briefly reviewed. It is concluded that future work should give priority to (1) the formation, movement and entrainment of high concentration near bed layers; (2) particle interactions, including flocculation, cycling processes, and chemical and biological interactions; (3) intertidal mudflat processes, sediment exchanges in shallow water and wave induced mud transport; (4) development of improved parameterization of exchange processes for inclusion in 3D mathematical models. (5) development and use of new instrumentation for field measurements, especially of intermittent events, and over the long term. This work should be carried out within interdisciplinary studies involving physicists, sediment dynamicists, biologists, and chemists.

  13. Future Irrigation Requirement of Rice Under Irrigated Area - Uncertainty through GCMs and Crop Models : A Case Study of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. G.; Porter, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Panwar, A. S.

    2017-12-01

    Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), the food basket of South Asia, characterised by predominantly cereal-based farming systems where livestock is an integral part of farm economy. Climate change is projected to have significant effects on agriculture production and hence on food and livelihood security because more than 90 per cent farmers fall under small and marginal category. The rising temperatures and uncertainties in rainfall associated with global warming may have serious direct and indirect impacts on crop production. A loss of 10-40% crop production is predicted in different crops in India by the end of this century by different researchers. Cereal crops (mainly rice and wheat) are crucial to ensuring the food security in the region, but sustaining their productivity has become a major challenge due to climate variability and uncertainty. Under AgMIP Project, we have analysed the climate change impact on farm level productivity of rice at Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh using 29 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during mid-century period 2041-2070. Two crop simulation models DSSAT4.6 and APSIM7.7 were used for impact study. There is lot of uncertainty in yield level by different GCMs and crop models. Under RCP4.5, APSIM showed a declining yield up to 14.5 % while DSSAT showed a declining yield level of 6.5 % only compared to the baseline (1980-2010). However, out of 29 GCMs, 15 GCMs showed negative impact and 14 showed positive impact under APSIM while it showed 21 and 8 GCMs, respectively in the case of DSSAT. DSSAT and APSIM simulated irrigation water requirement in future of the order of 645±75 mm and 730±107 mm, respectively under RCP4.5. However, the same will be of the order of 626 ± 99 mm and 749 ± 147 mm, respectively under RCP8.5. Projected irrigation water productivity showed a range of 4.87-12.15 kg ha-1 mm-1 and 6.77-12.63 kg ha-1 mm-1 through APSIM and DSSAT, respectively under RCP4.5, which stands an average of 7.81 and 8.53 kg ha-1 mm-1 during the

  14. Future Ground Requirements: 2012 and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-23

    for the Army of the future. EO sensors will also likely be transitioning from single spectral bands to multi-spectral or hyper-spectral sensing...signature treatments using man-made materials such as surplus conveyor belts are common examples of the next level of complexity of vehicle signature

  15. Research Requirements for Future Visual Guidance Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-01

    technology offers significant potential enhancements to airport lighting technology . Fiber material is inherently cheap to produce, chemically neutral, and...formed recently to develop new standards for this type of lighting technology . The claims, if verified, would indicate that greatly increased economy of...traffic served. A requirement thus developed for operating airport lighting remotely by the user pilot. During the 1960’s and 1970’s air- to-ground lighting

  16. Requirements for future automotive batteries - a snapshot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karden, Eckhard; Shinn, Paul; Bostock, Paul; Cunningham, James; Schoultz, Evan; Kok, Daniel

    Introduction of new fuel economy, performance, safety, and comfort features in future automobiles will bring up many new, power-hungry electrical systems. As a consequence, demands on automotive batteries will grow substantially, e.g. regarding reliability, energy throughput (shallow-cycle life), charge acceptance, and high-rate partial state-of-charge (HRPSOC) operation. As higher voltage levels are mostly not an economically feasible alternative for the short term, the existing 14 V electrical system will have to fulfil these new demands, utilizing advanced 12 V energy storage devices. The well-established lead-acid battery technology is expected to keep playing a key role in this application. Compared to traditional starting-lighting-ignition (SLI) batteries, significant technological progress has been achieved or can be expected, which improve both performance and service life. System integration of the storage device into the vehicle will become increasingly important. Battery monitoring systems (BMS) are expected to become a commodity, penetrating the automotive volume market from both highly equipped premium cars and dedicated fuel-economy vehicles (e.g. stop/start). Battery monitoring systems will allow for more aggressive battery operating strategies, at the same time improving the reliability of the power supply system. Where a single lead-acid battery cannot fulfil the increasing demands, dual-storage systems may form a cost-efficient extension. They consist either of two lead-acid batteries or of a lead-acid battery plus another storage device.

  17. Strategic forces: Future requirements and options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speed, R.D.

    1990-11-01

    In the wake of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the apparent ending of the Cold War, there have been renewed calls for radical cuts in US strategic forces to levels far below the 10,000 or so warheads allowed each side under the current START proposal. Since it now appears that NATO for the first time will have the capability to defeat a Soviet conventional attack without the necessity of threatening to resort to nuclear weapons, this should pave the way for the rethinking of US strategy and the reduction of US strategic weapons requirements. In this new environment, it seems plausible that, with a modification of the Flexible Response doctrine to forego attempts to disarm the Soviet Union, deterrence could be maintained with 1500 or so survivable strategic weapons. With a new strategy that confined US strategic weapons to the role of deterring the use of nuclear weapons by other countries, a survivable force of about 500 weapons would seem sufficient. With this premise, the implications for the US strategic force structure are examined for two cases: a treaty that allows each side 3000 warheads and one that allows each side 1000 warheads. In Part 1 of this paper, the weapons requirements for deterrence are examined in light of recent changes in the geopolitical environment. In Part 2, it is assumed that the President and Congress have decided that deep cuts in strategic forces are acceptable. 128 refs., 12 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

  18. Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

    2017-01-01

    NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

  19. Management models for the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonker, Jan; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær

    2007-01-01

    around the globe. Each of these models is described in a structured company-based story thus creating the backbone for the book at hand. The aim is to analyse these different kinds of institutional frameworks of excellence and discuss their nature, content and enactability. The result is a rich...... aspect of the company's operations such as processes; others are based on a holistic view of the organisation. This paper is based on a book project (2006-2007) entitled "Management Models for the Future" (Springer Verlag, Heidelberg - Germany) aiming to harvest twelve new company-based models from...

  20. Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

    1990-09-01

    The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

  1. Requirements Analysis for Future Satellite Gravity Mission Improved-GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wei; Hsu, Houtse; Zhong, Min; Yun, Meijuan

    2015-01-01

    The Earth's gravitational field from the Next-Generation Gravimetry Mission (NGGM) and the Improved-Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Improved-GRACE) complete up to degree and order 120 is recovered by a closed-loop numerical simulation using different orbital altitudes of 325 and 300 km, different orbital inclinations of 96.78° and 89° and different inter-satellite ranges of 10 and 50 km. The preferred orbit parameters of the future twin Improved-GRACE satellites are proposed based on the results of the simulations in this study. The research results show: (1) In order to achieve the scientific objectives, which require that the accuracy of the next-generation Earth gravity field models is at least one order of magnitude better than that of the current gravity models, the orbit design at an altitude of 300 ± 50 km is recommended for the future Improved-GRACE mission. This altitude is determined by a trade-off analysis between the recovery accuracy of the gravity field and the operational lifetime of the satellite system. (2) Because the accuracy of the Earth's gravitational field from NGGM with an orbital inclination of 96.78° will be decreased due to a lack of the observation data in the polar areas, we propose that a near-polar orbit (inclination of 89° ± 2°) is a preferable selection for the future twin Improved-GRACE satellites. (3) The future Improved-GRACE mission has to adopt an inter-satellite range of 50 ± 10 km, because the common signals of the Earth's gravitational field between the twin NGGM satellites will be substantially eliminated with a shorter inter-satellite range of 10 km. With these orbit design parameters, the Earth's gravitational field from the Improved-GRACE mission is precisely recovered complete up to degree and order 120 with a cumulative geoid height error of about 0.7 mm.

  2. Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertus, Mark J.

    The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

  3. Requirements for Medical Modeling Languages

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, Arnoud A.F.; Ter Hofstede, Arthur H.M.; Ten Hoopen, A. Johannes

    2001-01-01

    Objective: The development of tailor-made domain-specific modeling languages is sometimes desirable in medical informatics. Naturally, the development of such languages should be guided. The purpose of this article is to introduce a set of requirements for such languages and show their application in analyzing and comparing existing modeling languages. Design: The requirements arise from the practical experience of the authors and others in the development of modeling languages in both general informatics and medical informatics. The requirements initially emerged from the analysis of information modeling techniques. The requirements are designed to be orthogonal, i.e., one requirement can be violated without violation of the others. Results: The proposed requirements for any modeling language are that it be “formal” with regard to syntax and semantics, “conceptual,” “expressive,” “comprehensible,” “suitable,” and “executable.” The requirements are illustrated using both the medical logic modules of the Arden Syntax as a running example and selected examples from other modeling languages. Conclusion: Activity diagrams of the Unified Modeling Language, task structures for work flows, and Petri nets are discussed with regard to the list of requirements, and various tradeoffs are thus made explicit. It is concluded that this set of requirements has the potential to play a vital role in both the evaluation of existing domain-specific languages and the development of new ones. PMID:11230383

  4. Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Options for Compliance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Heather E.; Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.; Solana, Amy E.; Russo, Bryan J.

    2011-09-30

    As the model energy codes are improved to reach efficiency levels 50 percent greater than current codes, use of on-site renewable energy generation is likely to become a code requirement. This requirement will be needed because traditional mechanisms for code improvement, including envelope, mechanical and lighting, have been pressed to the end of reasonable limits. Research has been conducted to determine the mechanism for implementing this requirement (Kaufman 2011). Kaufmann et al. determined that the most appropriate way to structure an on-site renewable requirement for commercial buildings is to define the requirement in terms of an installed power density per unit of roof area. This provides a mechanism that is suitable for the installation of photovoltaic (PV) systems on future buildings to offset electricity and reduce the total building energy load. Kaufmann et al. suggested that an appropriate maximum for the requirement in the commercial sector would be 4 W/ft{sup 2} of roof area or 0.5 W/ft{sup 2} of conditioned floor area. As with all code requirements, there must be an alternative compliance path for buildings that may not reasonably meet the renewables requirement. This might include conditions like shading (which makes rooftop PV arrays less effective), unusual architecture, undesirable roof pitch, unsuitable building orientation, or other issues. In the short term, alternative compliance paths including high performance mechanical equipment, dramatic envelope changes, or controls changes may be feasible. These options may be less expensive than many renewable systems, which will require careful balance of energy measures when setting the code requirement levels. As the stringency of the code continues to increase however, efficiency trade-offs will be maximized, requiring alternative compliance options to be focused solely on renewable electricity trade-offs or equivalent programs. One alternate compliance path includes purchase of Renewable Energy

  5. Information Requirements and Consumer Protection in Future M-Commerce

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleff, Evelyne Beatrix; Henschel, Rene Franz

    2007-01-01

      The aim of this article is to discuss information requirements and consumer protection in mobile commerce. On the basis of a brief introduction to the characteristics of mobile commerce and the regulatory framework that governs mobile commerce in the European Union today, the article presents a...... safely between the legal rocks in the future wireless ocean of mobile commerce....

  6. Requirements for effective modelling strategies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaunt, J.L.; Riley, J.; Stein, A.; Penning de Vries, F.W.T.

    1997-01-01

    As the result of a recent BBSRC-funded workshop between soil scientists, modellers, statisticians and others to discuss issues relating to the derivation of complex environmental models, a set of modelling guidelines is presented and the required associated research areas are discussed.

  7. Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bryan, Chris [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gehin, Jess C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-02-10

    The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled “Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors”, was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor’s current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

  8. Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilas, Germina; Bryan, Chris; Gehin, Jess C.

    2016-01-01

    The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled ''Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors'', was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor's current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

  9. Information Requirements and Consumer Protection in Future M-Commerce

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleff, Evelyne Beatrix; Henschel, Rene Franz

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this article is to discuss information requirements and consumer protection in mobile commerce. On the basis of a brief introduction to the characteristics of mobile commerce and the regulatory framework that governs mobile commerce in the European Union today, the article presents...... and discusses information requirements of particular interest to m-commerce and how the technological development facilitates but also challenges the traditional way in which legal information is given. In order to prevent over-regulation and hindrances to the technological development, it has been suggested...... safely between the legal rocks in the future wireless ocean of mobile commerce....

  10. Requirements for user interaction support in future CACE environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, M.

    1994-01-01

    Based on a review of user interaction modes and the specific needs of the CACE domain the paper describes requirements for user interaction in future CACE environments. Taking another look at the design process in CACE key areas in need of more user interaction support are pointed out. Three...... concepts are described through examples, dynamic data access, parallel evaluation and active documentation. The features of existing tools are summarized. The problem of how easily or `naturally' the novel concepts are integrated is stressed...

  11. The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-04-01

    Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

  12. Future CANDU nuclear power plant design requirements document executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Duk Su; Chang, Woo Hyun; Lee, Nam Young; S. A. Usmani

    1996-03-01

    The future CANDU Requirements Document (FCRED) describes a clear and complete statement of utility requirements for the next generation of CANDU nuclear power plants including those in Korea. The requirements are based on proven technology of PHWR experience and are intended to be consistent with those specified in the current international requirement documents. Furthermore, these integrated set of design requirements, incorporate utility input to the extent currently available and assure a simple, robust and more forgiving design that enhances the performance and safety. The FCRED addresses the entire plant, including the nuclear steam supply system and the balance of the plant, up to the interface with the utility grid at the distribution side of the circuit breakers which connect the switchyard to the transmission lines. Requirements for processing of low level radioactive waste at the plant site and spent fuel storage requirements are included in the FCRED. Off-site waste disposal is beyond the scope of the FCRED. 2 tabs., 1 fig. (Author) .new

  13. Investigation of Vehicle Requirements and Options for Future Space Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, John R.

    2001-01-01

    The research in support of this grant was performed by the PI, Dr. John Olds, and graduate students in the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at Georgia Tech over the period December 1999 to December 2000. The work was sponsored by Dr. Ted Talay, branch chief of the Vehicle Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the project was to examine the characteristics of future space tourism markets and to identify the vehicle requirements that are necessary to enable this emerging new business segment.

  14. Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

    2016-01-01

    This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

  15. Contribution of wind energy to future electricity requirements of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M. A.; Memon, M.

    2007-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficit country. About half of the country's population has no access to electricity and per capita supply is only 520 kWh. About 67% of the conventional electricity is generated from fossil fuels with 51% and 16% share of gas and oil respectively. It has been projected that electricity demand in Pakistan would increase at an average annual growth rate of 5% to 12% under different scenarios. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country heavily depends on imported oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payment situation. Pakistan is becoming increasingly more dependent on a few sources of supply and its energy security often hangs on the fragile threat of imported oil that is subject to supply disruptions and price volatility. The production and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affects the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. Pakistan spends huge amount on the degradation of the environment. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources such as wind energy to meet its future electricity requirements. This paper presents an overview of wind power generation potential and assessment of its contribution to future electricity requirements of Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The country has about 1050 km long coastline. The technical potential of centralized grid connected wind power and wind home systems in the coastal area of the country has been estimated as about 484 TWh and 0.135 TWh per year respectively. The study concludes that wind power could meet about 20% to 50% of the electricity demand in Pakistan by the year 2030. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people

  16. A statistical model of future human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, G.

    1992-02-01

    A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

  17. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2006-01-01

    Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

  18. Modeling Present and Future River Runoff Using Global Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-10-01

    AD-A265 274 October 1992 TBESIS Modeling Present and Future River Runoff Using Global Atmospheric Models Captain Scott C. Van Blarcum AFIT Student... ATMOSPHERIC MODELS BY SCOTT C. VAN BLARCUM A thesis submitted to the Graduate School-New Brunswick Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in...03 020 I1UIlU1ll ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS Modeling Present and Future River Runoff Using Global Atmospheric Models by SCOTT C. VAN BLARCUM Thesis

  19. SMOS and SMAP: from Lessons Learned to Future Mission Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Y. H.; Wigneron, J. P.; Cabot, F.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Anterrieu, E.; Rouge, B.; Rodriguez Fernandez, N.; Bindlish, R.; Khazaal, A.; Al-Bitar, A.; Mialon, A.; Lesthievent, G.

    2017-12-01

    , vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth of information and some interesting perspectives will be presented. More important it is now possible to draw conclusions from the lessons learnt and, with the help of the user's community, define the requirements for future missions. And, finally, from these requirement to propose mission scenarii.

  20. Deposition and interception of radionuclides. Current knowledge and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-12-01

    Following an accidental or routine release of radionuclides into the environment, a good knowledge of deposition processes is necessary in order to accurately predict the radiation dose to members of the public. In order to understand the environmental impact of released radionuclides and their transfer through the environment, including the food chain to man, there have been numerous studies on deposition of radionuclides to a range of surfaces such as bare soil, crops, forests, water bodies and urban surfaces. The RADREM committee provides a forum for liaison on UK research and monitoring in the areas of radioactive substances and radioactive waste management. RADREM has set up four sub-committees to cover issues related to radioactivity in the atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments as well as those related radioactive waste management. One of the sub-committee tasks is to organise seminars and workshops on specific topics of interest. The first of these was the workshop on 'Deposition and Interception of Radionuclides: Current knowledge and future requirements' organised last year by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), acting as secretariat for the Terrestrial Environment Sub-Committee (TESC) of RADREM. The intent of this workshop was to provide an opportunity to exchange information on deposition-related aspects between representatives from various interested parties including government, regulatory bodies, industry and research organisations. Through presentations and discussions, this workshop addressed current developments in the areas of deposition and interception of radionuclides by various surfaces and served to identify areas which need further research. Papers were presented on various aspects of deposition and interception of radionuclides including deposition into grass, fruits and other crops as well as deposition into urban areas and forests

  1. A View on Future Building System Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetter, Michael

    2011-04-01

    This chapter presents what a future environment for building system modeling and simulation may look like. As buildings continue to require increased performance and better comfort, their energy and control systems are becoming more integrated and complex. We therefore focus in this chapter on the modeling, simulation and analysis of building energy and control systems. Such systems can be classified as heterogeneous systems because they involve multiple domains, such as thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, electrical systems, control systems and communication systems. Also, they typically involve multiple temporal and spatial scales, and their evolution can be described by coupled differential equations, discrete equations and events. Modeling and simulating such systems requires a higher level of abstraction and modularisation to manage the increased complexity compared to what is used in today's building simulation programs. Therefore, the trend towards more integrated building systems is likely to be a driving force for changing the status quo of today's building simulation programs. Thischapter discusses evolving modeling requirements and outlines a path toward a future environment for modeling and simulation of heterogeneous building systems.A range of topics that would require many additional pages of discussion has been omitted. Examples include computational fluid dynamics for air and particle flow in and around buildings, people movement, daylight simulation, uncertainty propagation and optimisation methods for building design and controls. For different discussions and perspectives on the future of building modeling and simulation, we refer to Sahlin (2000), Augenbroe (2001) and Malkawi and Augenbroe (2004).

  2. Deep-sea impact experiments and their future requirements

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sharma, R.

    of biomass, followed by gradual restoration. Important results have been obtained from these experiments, but in order to have a better understanding of the impacts and restoration processes, it will be necessary to improvise future experiments to resemble...

  3. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Nelson, G.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Bodirsky, B.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Paltsev, S.; Rolinksi, S.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Lampe, von M.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

  4. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McQuade, D.

    2001-01-01

    As power generators around the world grapple with the challenges of the environment, deregulation, competitions and changing prices of fuels, the economics of running a future power plant are influenced significantly by the component of labour costs. These costs, from plant staff, corporate support and purchased services, will affect the overall plant economics. To achieve improved efficiency and effectiveness of organization structures and staff, vendors and utilities are working jointly to apply lessons learned for future designs. This paper will examine the experience gained to date with Canadian CANDU 6 type reactors both in Canada and abroad. The strategies which have been very successful will be reviewed, together with the results of collaboration between Atomic Energy of Canada and the utilities. An assessment of the staffing numbers is provided as a comparison between current number at a Canadian utility and the projected number from a future plant with the improvements in the design. The influence to the overall plant economics are discussed with some broad generalities that look at the effects of increasing and reducing staff levels showing the probable impact on capacity factor. The lessons from other plants can contribute significantly to the performance improvement process. The paper points to the need for a balanced approach in the future for the distribution of operating maintenance and administration (OM and A) cost between nuclear safety studies; maintenance programs and staff training. In the future, utilities, together with the designers, will have to greatly improve plant maintenance and training. The improved design features detailed in the paper will support this strategy by utilizing operational experience. (author)

  5. Solar sorptive cooling. Technologies, user requirements, practical experience, future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treffinger, P. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Hardthausen (Germany); Hertlein, H.P. [eds.] [Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie, Koeln (Germany)

    1998-09-01

    Sorptive cooling techniques permit the use of low-temperature solar heat, i.e. a renewable energy of low cost and world-wide availability. The Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie intends to develop solar sorptive cooling technologies to the prototype stage and, in cooperation with the solar industry and its end users, to promote practical application in air conditioning of buildings and cold storage of food. The workshop presents an outline of the state of development of solar sorptive cooling from the view of users and developers. Exemplary solar cooling systems are described, and the potential of open and closed sorptive processes is assessed. Future central activities will be defined in an intensive discussion between planners, producers, users and developers. [German] Der Einsatz von Sorptionstechniken zur Kaelteerzeugung erlaubt es, als treibende Solarenergie Niedertemperatur-Solarwaerme einzusetzen, also eine regenerative Energie mit sehr geringen Kosten und weltweiter Verfuegbarkeit. Der Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie hat sich als Aufgabe gestellt, die Techniken der solaren Sorptionskuehlung bis zum Prototyp zu entwickeln und mit Industrie und Nutzern die praktische Anwendung voranzubringen. Die Anwendungsfelder sind die Klimatisierung von Gebaeuden und die Kaltlagerung von Lebensmitteln. Der Workshop gibt einen Ueberblick zum Entwicklungsstand der solaren Sorptionskuehlung aus der Sicht der Anwender und Entwickler. Bereits ausgefuehrte Beispiele zur solaren Kuehlung werden vorgestellt und das Potential geschlossener und offener Sorptionsverfahren angegeben. In intensiver Diskussion zwischen Planern, Herstellern, Nutzern und Entwicklern sollen kuenftige Arbeitsschwerpunkte herausgearbeitet werden. (orig.)

  6. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired....... Also researchers are forced to be in the forefront when choosing the research area in which they engage in. In trying to aid such assessments, scenario techniques can be useful (von Reibnitz, 1988). A scenario can be thought of as a vehicle for envisioning where the world could go so that we can learn...

  7. The future of hydropower planning modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

    2017-12-01

    Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the

  8. Meta-requirements that Model Change

    OpenAIRE

    Gouri Prakash

    2010-01-01

    One of the common problems encountered in software engineering is addressing and responding to the changing nature of requirements. While several approaches have been devised to address this issue, ranging from instilling resistance to changing requirements in order to mitigate impact to project schedules, to developing an agile mindset towards requirements, the approach discussed in this paper is one of conceptualizing the delta in requirement and modeling it, in order t...

  9. 17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing brokers. 1.12 Section 1.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Minimum Financial and Related Reporting Requirements § 1.12 Maintenance of minimum financial...

  10. Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayoma K. da Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Changes in temperature and precipitation intensity and frequency have influenced the water demand for irrigation. Regions that have agriculture-based economies, as in the Ijuí River basin, are often affected by periods of drought or excessive rainfall, which is harmful for agricultural productivity. This study aimed to evaluate future irrigation water demands of four crops in this basin (bean, corn, wheat and soybean, comparing them with a baseline period. Meteorological data forecasts were obtained from the regional climate model ETA 40 CTRL for the climatic scenario A1B, for the baseline (1961-1990 and future (2011-2100 periods. The one-dimensional SWAP model was used to estimate the water demand for irrigation. The results showed that, in the future, irrigation water requirements will be smaller for all crops. In the short term (2011-2040, water demands were similar to those for the baseline period, but from the middle of the century onwards (2041-2100, greater reductions were observed.

  11. Requirements for clinical information modelling tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Jódar-Sánchez, Francisco; Kalra, Dipak

    2015-07-01

    This study proposes consensus requirements for clinical information modelling tools that can support modelling tasks in medium/large scale institutions. Rather than identify which functionalities are currently available in existing tools, the study has focused on functionalities that should be covered in order to provide guidance about how to evolve the existing tools. After identifying a set of 56 requirements for clinical information modelling tools based on a literature review and interviews with experts, a classical Delphi study methodology was applied to conduct a two round survey in order to classify them as essential or recommended. Essential requirements are those that must be met by any tool that claims to be suitable for clinical information modelling, and if we one day have a certified tools list, any tool that does not meet essential criteria would be excluded. Recommended requirements are those more advanced requirements that may be met by tools offering a superior product or only needed in certain modelling situations. According to the answers provided by 57 experts from 14 different countries, we found a high level of agreement to enable the study to identify 20 essential and 21 recommended requirements for these tools. It is expected that this list of identified requirements will guide developers on the inclusion of new basic and advanced functionalities that have strong support by end users. This list could also guide regulators in order to identify requirements that could be demanded of tools adopted within their institutions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling of future hydrogeological conditions at SFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmen, L.G.; Stigsson, M. [Golder Associates, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    The purpose is to estimate the future groundwater movements at the SFR repository and to produce input to the quantitative safety assessment of the SFR. The future flow pattern of the groundwater is of interest, since components of the waste emplaced in a closed and abandoned repository will dissolve in the groundwater and be transported by the groundwater to the ground surface. The study is based on a system analysis approach. Three-dimensional models were devised of the studied domain. The models include the repository tunnels and the surrounding rock mass with fracture zones. The formal models used for simulation of the groundwater flow are three-dimensional mathematical descriptions of the studied hydraulic system. The studied domain is represented on four scales - regional, local, semi local and detailed - forming four models with different resolutions: regional, local, semi local and detailed models. The local and detailed models include a detailed description of the tunnel system at SFR and of surrounding rock mass and fracture zones. In addition, the detailed model includes description of the different structures that take place inside the deposition tunnels. At the area studied, the shoreline will retreat due to the shore level displacement; this process is included in the models. The studied period starts at 2000 AD and continues until a steady state like situation is reached for the surroundings of the SFR at ca 6000 AD. The models predict that as long as the sea covers the ground above the SFR, the regional groundwater flow as well as the flow in the deposition tunnels are small. However, due to the shore level displacement the shoreline (the sea) will retreat. Because of the retreating shoreline, the general direction of the groundwater flow at SFR will change, from vertical upward to a more horizontal flow; the size of the groundwater flow will be increased as well. The present layout of the SFR includes five deposition tunnels: SILO, BMA, BLA, BTF1

  13. The Bioeconomy Model in Future Sustainable Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipate Nicolae

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The future of sustainable development is the bioeconomy with the ―global‖ solution; both global and local action for developed the renewable energy generation. When local solutions are implemented is being laid for global solutions are positive affect the national economy. The implementation of the bioeconomy strategy used by society to prevent urgent problems, such as increasing competition for natural resources, climate change, rural sustainable development. The bioeconomy is a new economic and social order and promotes systemic change from using non-renewable resources to renewables. Bioeconomy reveals that production, which involves the transformation of a limited stock of matter and energy, but respecting the same laws that govern entropy closed systems, the entropy or unavailable matter and energy in the forms tend to increase continuously. Economic growth not only increases the apparent output per unit of inputs, which is performed using finite stock of matter and energy in the world. The current economy is based on fossil fuels and other material inputs suffering entropic degradation, both in the raw material extraction and pollution. The production, even if technical progress leads to lower overall yields. The idea of a steady state as the final economic growth that perpetuated indefinitely pendulum model is an impossibility

  14. Modeling future power plant location patterns. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eagles, T.W.; Cohon, J.L.; ReVelle, C.

    1979-04-01

    The locations of future energy facilities must be specified to assess the potential environmental impact of those facilities. A computer model was developed to generate probable locations for the energy facilities needed to meet postulated future energy requirements. The model is designed to cover a very large geographical region. The regional demand for baseload electric generating capacity associated with a postulated demand growth rate over any desired time horizon is specified by the user as an input to the model. The model uses linear programming to select the most probable locations within the region, based on physical and political factors. The linear program is multi-objective, with four objective functions based on transmission, coal supply, population proximity, and water supply considerations. Minimizing each objective function leads to a distinct set of locations. The user can select the objective function or weighted combination of objective functions most appropriate to his interest. Users with disparate interests can use the model to see the locational changes which result from varying weighting of the objective functions. The model has been implemented in a six-state mid-Atlantic region. The year 2000 was chosen as the study year, and a test scenario postulating 2.25% growth in baseload generating capacity between 1977 and 2000 was chosen. The scenario stipulatedthat this capacity be 50% nuclear and 50% coal-fired. Initial utility reaction indicates the objective based on transmission costs is most important for such a large-scale analysis

  15. Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, Walter E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fellner, Karen Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeffers, Robert Fredric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silver, Emily [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Villa, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engelke, Peter [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Burrow, Mat [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Keith, Bruce [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on

  16. Pseudo goldstones at future colliders from the extended BESS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.; Chiappetta, P.; Deandrea, A.; Gatto, R.

    1995-01-01

    We consider the production of the lightest pseudo-Goldstone bosons at future colliders through the vector resonances predicted by the extended BESS model, which consists of an effective lagrangian parametrization with dynamical symmetry breaking, describing scalar, vector and axial-vector bound states in a rather general framework. We find that the detection of pseudo-Goldstone pairs at LHC requires a careful evaluation of backgrounds. For e + e - collisions in the TeV range the backgrounds can be easily reduced and the detection of pseudo-Goldstone pairs is generally easier. (orig.)

  17. Stochastic models for the spot and future prices of commodities with high volatility and mean reversion

    OpenAIRE

    García de la Vega, Victor Manuel; Ruiz-Porras, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    The pricing of commodity derivatives requires that the underlying asset be modelled with mean reversion and high volatility. We develop closed formulas to price the spot of the commodity, its future, and to price a call option on the spot and on the commodity future, in the real world and under risk neutrality, by using a 1 factor model.

  18. Future Space Requirements for Indiana's Institutions of Higher Education. Higher Education in Indiana. Long Range Needs and Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayless, Paul C.; And Others

    Based on data obtained in earlier phases of a comprehensive planning study, this report presents--(1) the development of a space projection model responsive to unique institutional requirements, and (2) a forecast of the aggregate academic space needs of higher education in Indiana for a given future enrollment level. The scope of the study and a…

  19. Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horvath, John; Ross, Jonathan M

    1997-01-01

    .... The purpose of the analysis was two fold: 1. To describe the requirements of a competitive, future-oriented computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing/computer-integrated management (CAD/CAMYCIM...

  20. A fuzzy model for exploiting customer requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Javadirad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, Quality function deployment (QFD is one of the total quality management tools, where customers’ views and requirements are perceived and using various techniques improves the production requirements and operations. The QFD department, after identification and analysis of the competitors, takes customers’ feedbacks to meet the customers’ demands for the products compared with the competitors. In this study, a comprehensive model for assessing the importance of the customer requirements in the products or services for an organization is proposed. The proposed study uses linguistic variables, as a more comprehensive approach, to increase the precision of the expression evaluations. The importance of these requirements specifies the strengths and weaknesses of the organization in meeting the requirements relative to competitors. The results of these experiments show that the proposed method performs better than the other methods.

  1. Palaeohydrogeological modelling for potential future repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In order to consider the future behaviour of a groundwater system over time scales of relevance to repository safety assessment, it is necessary to develop an understanding of how the groundwater system has changed over time. This can be done through studying the palaeohydrogeology of the groundwater system. The EQUIP project (Evidence from Quaternary Infills for Palaeohydrogeology) set out to develop and evaluate methodologies for obtaining palaeohydrogeological information from fracture infill minerals formed under past groundwater conditions. EQUIP was a collaborative project funded jointly by the European Commission and, in the UK, by the Environment Agency and UK Nirex Limited. The project also involved partners in Finland, France, Spain and Sweden. The fracture infill material chosen for this investigation was calcite, because its reactions in low temperature groundwater environments are fairly well understood and it is fairly ubiquitous in both crystalline and sedimentary rocks. In addition, geochemical modelling suggests that plausible time scales for growth of individual calcite crystals are in the range 10 to 10,000 years, so they may accumulate a record of groundwater evolution over periods of significant climate change. The project was based on four sites, having different climate histories and geological conditions, at which drillcore samples of the deep crystalline rocks, accompanied by hydrogeological and hydrochemical data for the current groundwater conditions, were already available. The principal study sites were Olkiluoto in Finland, Aspo/Laxemar in Sweden, Sellafield in the UK and Vienne in France. The results of the study focus on the morphology and bulk compositions of calcite, compositional zoning of calcite crystals and compositions of fluid inclusions. There are systematic variations in bulk compositions with depth and also in discrete compositional fluctuations (or zones) in individual calcite crystals. These are inferred to reflect

  2. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  3. Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    information all have equal “weight” in the information world Computers Internet Simulation The Future Distribute & communicate Predict, plan & train...Acquire & analyze Third Leg of the Information Age Satava 2 Feb 1999 Simulation Computers Acquire Analyze Simulation Predict, Train Internet Communicate...Serendipity Inspiration FURTHER PROOF: Current evidence is inadequate for Event horizons Cognition Genome Quantum mechanics Memes Etc New

  4. Modelling the past and future of whales and whaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott Baker, C; Clapham, Phillip J

    2004-07-01

    Historical reconstruction of the population dynamics of whales before, during and after exploitation is crucial to marine ecological restoration and for the consideration of future commercial whaling. Population dynamic models used by the International Whaling Commission require historical catch records, estimates of intrinsic rates of increase and current abundance, all of which are subject to considerable uncertainty. Population genetic parameters can be used for independent estimates of historical demography, but also have large uncertainty, particularly for rates of mutational substitution and gene flow. At present, demographic and genetic estimates of pre-exploitation abundance differ by an order of magnitude and, consequently, suggest vastly different baselines for judging recovery. Here, we review these two approaches and suggest the need for a synthetic analytical framework to evaluate uncertainty in key parameters. Such a framework could have broad application to modelling both historical and contemporary population dynamics in other exploited species.

  5. Modeling requirements for in situ vitrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKinnon, R.J.; Mecham, D.C.; Hagrman, D.L.; Johnson, R.W.; Murray, P.E.; Slater, C.E.; Marwil, E.S.; Weaver, R.A.; Argyle, M.D.

    1991-11-01

    This document outlines the requirements for the model being developed at the INEL which will provide analytical support for the ISV technology assessment program. The model includes representations of the electric potential field, thermal transport with melting, gas and particulate release, vapor migration, off-gas combustion and process chemistry. The modeling objectives are to (1) help determine the safety of the process by assessing the air and surrounding soil radionuclide and chemical pollution hazards, the nuclear criticality hazard, and the explosion and fire hazards, (2) help determine the suitability of the ISV process for stabilizing the buried wastes involved, and (3) help design laboratory and field tests and interpret results therefrom

  6. Mediterranean agriculture: More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in future irrigation water requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. Our research shows that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops (1). Also under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect (1). However, in some scenarios (in this case as combinations of climate change, irrigation technology, influence of population growth and CO2-fertilization effect) water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain (1). In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a

  7. Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.; Christian, J. R.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Lee, W. G.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2011-03-01

    The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850-2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006-2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850-2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

    2017-12-01

    The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

  9. Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

  10. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  11. Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

  12. Control Architecture Modeling for Future Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai

    and operation structures; and finally the application to some concrete study cases, including a present system balancing, and proposed control structures such as Microgrids and Cells. In the second part, the main contributions are the outline of a formation strategy, integrating the design and model...

  13. Future of human models for crash analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Happee, R.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van; Lange, R. de

    2001-01-01

    In the crash safety field mathematical models can be applied in practically all area's of research and development including: reconstruction of actual accidents, design (CAD) of the crash response of vehicles, safety devices and roadside facilities and in support of human impact biomechanical

  14. 17 CFR 242.400 - Customer margin requirements for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Customer margin requirements..., AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin Requirements for Security Futures § 242.400 Customer margin requirements for security futures—authority, purpose...

  15. Developing a Predictive Model for Unscheduled Maintenance Requirements on United States Air Force Installations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kovich, Matthew D; Norton, J. D

    2008-01-01

    .... This paper develops one such method by using linear regression and time series analysis to develop a predictive model to forecast future year man-hour and funding requirements for unscheduled maintenance...

  16. Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frunt, J.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

  17. Distributed Control and Management of Renewable Electric Energy Resources for Future Grid Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mokhtari, Ghassem; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Nourbakhsh, Ghavameddin

    2016-01-01

    It is anticipated that both medium- and low-voltage distribution networks will include high level of distributed renewable energy resources, in the future. The high penetration of these resources inevitably can introduce various power quality issues, including; overvoltage and overloading...... strategy is a promising approach to manage and utilise the resources in future distribution networks to effectively deal with grid electric quality issues and requirements. Jointly, utility and customers the owners of the resources in the network are considered as part of a practical coordination strategy...

  18. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  19. Building models for marketing decisions : past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, Dick R.

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  20. Performance Requirements Modeling andAssessment for Active Power Ancillary Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bondy, Daniel Esteban Morales; Thavlov, Anders; Tougaard, Janus Bundsgaard Mosbæk

    2017-01-01

    system operation, a reliable service delivery is required, yet it may not be appropriate to apply conventional performance requirements to new technologies and methods. The service performance requirements and assessment methods therefore need to be generalized and standardized in order to include future...... ancillary service sources. This paper develops a modeling method for ancillary services performance requirements, including performance and verification indices. The use of the modeling method and the indices is exemplified in two case studies....

  1. Consequences for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components due to future requirements in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hans-Joachim, Frank

    2001-01-01

    In the frame of European harmonization, a lot of changes on requirements for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components have been performed. Differed organizations are involved in preparing future requirements for nuclear application. On one side the French German cooperation on the development of EPR. At the origin of this project was the common decision in 1989 of Framatome and Siemens to cooperate through NPI, to design the Nuclear Island, which meets the future needs of utilities. EDF and a group of the main German Utilities joined this cooperation in 1991 and since then they have been totally involved to the progress of the work. In addition, all the process was backed up to the end by the strong cooperation between the French and the German. Safety Authorities, which have a long lasting cooperation to define common requirements, which have to be applied to future Nuclear Power Plants. Furthermore an organization has been set up to elaborate common codes related to the EPR design, at the level of the French design and construction rules (RCC) or the German KTA safety standards, the so-called EPR technical codes (ETC). On the other side, the European utilities co-operate on a much broader basis for the establishment of European Utilities Requirements (EUR). These requirements are prepared by a group of European utilities that represent the major European electricity generating companies that are determined to keep the nuclear option open. The technical requirements specified in the EUR document define the boundaries in which future plants need to be designed in order to be acceptable for the needs of the utilities and in order to fulfill the basic requirements of competitive power generation costs and licensability in all countries represented in the EUR group. All the new requirements have to be applied by designer and manufacturer. Siemens /SNP act as a designer of a lot of various vessels and tanks, heat exchangers and other items of process

  2. Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V.

    2008-11-01

    ' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth is dramatic; (5) small HPC clusters located

  3. Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V

    2008-11-15

    and Networking' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth

  4. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  5. Modelling human resource requirements for the nuclear industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roelofs, Ferry [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG) (Netherlands); Flore, Massimo; Estorff, Ulrik von [Joint Research Center (JRC) (Netherlands)

    2017-11-15

    The European Human Resource Observatory for Nuclear (EHRO-N) provides the European Commission with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts in the EU-28 and the enlargement and integration countries based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The objective is to assess how the supply of experts for the nuclear industry responds to the needs for the same experts for present and future nuclear projects in the region. Complementary to the bottom-up approach taken by the EHRO-N team at JRC, a top-down modelling approach has been taken in a collaboration with NRG in the Netherlands. This top-down modelling approach focuses on the human resource requirements for operation, construction, decommissioning, and efforts for long term operation of nuclear power plants. This paper describes the top-down methodology, the model input, the main assumptions, and the results of the analyses.

  6. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  7. The Future of Clinical Pharmacy: Developing a Holistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Shane

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This concept paper discusses the untapped promise of often overlooked humanistic skills to advance the practice of pharmacy. It highlights the seminal work that is, increasingly, integrated into medical and nursing education. The work of these educators and the growing empirical evidence that validates the importance of humanistic skills is raising questions for the future of pharmacy education and practice. To potentiate humanistic professional competencies, e.g., compassion, empathy, and emotional intelligence, how do we develop a more holistic model that integrates reflective and affective skills? There are many historical and current transitions in the profession and practice of pharmacy. If our education model is refocused with an emphasis on pharmacy’s therapeutic roots, the field has the opportunity to play a vital role in improving health outcomes and patient-centered care. Beyond the metrics of treatment effects, achieving greater patient-centeredness will require transformations that improve care processes and invest in patients’ experiences of the treatment and care they receive. Is layering on additional science sufficient to yield better health outcomes if we neglect the power of empathic interactions in the healing process?

  8. The system of dose limitation and its optimization requirement: Present status and future outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, A.J.

    1984-01-01

    Optimization of radiation protection is a relevant and controversial requirement of the system of dose limitation currently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Since the first European Scientific Seminar on Experience and Methods on Optimization - held by the Commission of the European Communities in 1979 - and several related seminars and symposia organized by the IAEA, many international efforts have been made to promote the practical implementation of the requirement. Recently, the ICRP published a report of ICRP Committee 4 on cost-benefit analysis in the optimization of radiation protection (ICRP Publication 37); it provides guidance on the principles and methods of application of the requirement. Ultimately, this seminar demonstrates the continuous interest of the international community in the proper use of optimization. This paper is intended to contribute to the seminar's objective, discussing the current issues concerning the implementation of the requirement and exploring perspectives for future applications of the principles involved in optimization

  9. Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Energy Generation and Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russo, Bryan J.; Weimar, Mark R.; Dillon, Heather E.

    2011-09-30

    As the model energy codes are improved to reach efficiency levels 50 percent greater than current codes, installation of on-site renewable energy generation is likely to become a code requirement. This requirement will be needed because traditional mechanisms for code improvement, including the building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting, have been maximized at the most cost-effective limit.

  10. Integrated modelling requires mass collaboration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. V.

    2009-12-01

    The need for sustainable solutions to the world’s problems is self evident; the challenge is to anticipate where, in the environment, economy or society, the proposed solution will have negative consequences. If we failed to realise that the switch to biofuels would have the seemingly obvious result of reduced food production, how much harder will it be to predict the likely impact of policies whose impacts may be more subtle? It has been clear for a long time that models and data will be important tools for assessing the impact of events and the measures for their mitigation. They are an effective way of encapsulating knowledge of a process and using it for prediction. However, most models represent a single or small group of processes. The sustainability challenges that face us now require not just the prediction of a single process but the prediction of how many interacting processes will respond in given circumstances. These processes will not be confined to a single discipline but will often straddle many. For example, the question, “What will be the impact on river water quality of the medical plans for managing a ‘flu pandemic and could they cause a further health hazard?” spans medical planning, the absorption of drugs by the body, the spread of disease, the hydraulic and chemical processes in sewers and sewage treatment works and river water quality. This question nicely reflects the present state of the art. We have models of the processes and standards, such as the Open Modelling Interface (the OpenMI), allow them to be linked together and to datasets. We can therefore answer the question but with the important proviso that we thought to ask it. The next and greater challenge is to deal with the open question, “What are the implications of the medical plans for managing a ‘flu pandemic?”. This implies a system that can make connections that may well not have occurred to us and then evaluate their probable impact. The final touch will be to

  11. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  12. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  13. Teacher-Scientist Partnerships: Past, Present, and Future Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Past and present models of teacher-scientist partnerships will be illustrated with examples cultivated from direct experience. Future models will be proposed, informed by this experience, as well as current STEM reform and policy iniitiatives and evidence-based education research.

  14. The Standard Model from LHC to future colliders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forte, S., E-mail: forte@mi.infn.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy); Nisati, A. [INFN, Sezione di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy); Passarino, G. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Torino, Via P. Giuria 1, 10125, Turin (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Torino, Via P. Giuria 1, 10125, Turin (Italy); Tenchini, R. [INFN, Sezione di Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127, Pisa (Italy); Calame, C. M. Carloni [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); Chiesa, M. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); Cobal, M. [Dipartimento di Chimica, Fisica e Ambiente, Università di Udine, Via delle Scienze, 206, 33100, Udine (Italy); INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Udine, Via delle Scienze, 206, 33100, Udine (Italy); Corcella, G. [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Via E. Fermi 40, 00044, Frascati (Italy); Degrassi, G. [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università’ Roma Tre, Via della Vasca Navale 84, 00146, Rome (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Roma Tre, Via della Vasca Navale 84, 00146, Rome (Italy); Ferrera, G. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy); Magnea, L. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Torino, Via P. Giuria 1, 10125, Turin (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Torino, Via P. Giuria 1, 10125, Turin (Italy); Maltoni, F. [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Université Catholique de Louvain, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Montagna, G. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); Nason, P. [INFN, Sezione di Milano-Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milan (Italy); Nicrosini, O. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); Oleari, C. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano-Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milan (Italy); Piccinini, F. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, via Bassi 6, 27100, Pavia (Italy); Riva, F. [Institut de Théorie des Phénoménes Physiques, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne (Switzerland); Vicini, A. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133, Milan (Italy)

    2015-11-25

    This review summarizes the results of the activities which have taken place in 2014 within the Standard Model Working Group of the “What Next” Workshop organized by INFN, Italy. We present a framework, general questions, and some indications of possible answers on the main issue for Standard Model physics in the LHC era and in view of possible future accelerators.

  15. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    efforts of several current and future unit processes in wastewater treatment plants could potentially benefit from this framework, especially when distributed dynamics have a significant impact on the overall unit process performance. In these cases, current models that rely on average properties cannot...... capability. Hence, PBMs should be regarded as a complementary modelling framework to biokinetic models. This paper provides an overview of current applications, future potential and limitations of PBMs in the field of wastewater treatment modelling, thereby looking over the fence to other scientific...

  16. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  17. Employers’ Perspectives on Future Roles and Skills Requirements for Australian Health Librarians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl Hamill

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – This study, which comprises one stage of a larger project (ALIA/HLA Workforce and Education Research Project, aimed to discover employers’ views on how (or whether health librarians assist in achieving the mission-critical goals of their organizations; how health librarians contribute to the organization now and into the future; and what are the current and future skills requirements of health librarians.Methods – Each member of the project group approached between one and five individuals known to them to generate a convenience sample of 22 employers of health librarians. There were 15 semi-structured interviews conducted between October and November 2010 with employers in the hospital, academic, government, private, consumer health and not-for-profit sectors. The interview schedule was sent to each interviewee prior to the interview so that they had time to consider their responses. The researchers wrote up the interview notes using the interview schedule and submitted them to the principal researcher, who combined the data into one document. Content analysis of the data was used to identify major themes.Results – Employers expressed a clear sense of respect for the roles and responsibilities of library staff in their organizations. Areas of practice such as education and training, scientific research and clinical support were highlighted as critical for the future. Current areas of practice such as using technology and systems to manage information, providing information services to meet user needs and management of health information resources in a range of formats were identified as remaining highly relevant for the future. There was potential for health librarians to play a more active and strategic role in their organizations, and to repackage their traditional skill sets for anticipated future roles. Interpersonal skills and the role of health librarians as the interface between clinicians and information technology

  18. Modelling and Designing Cryogenic Hydrogen Tanks for Future Aircraft Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Winnefeld

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the near future, the challenges to reduce the economic and social dependency on fossil fuels must be faced increasingly. A sustainable and efficient energy supply based on renewable energies enables large-scale applications of electro-fuels for, e.g., the transport sector. The high gravimetric energy density makes liquefied hydrogen a reasonable candidate for energy storage in a light-weight application, such as aviation. Current aircraft structures are designed to accommodate jet fuel and gas turbines allowing a limited retrofitting only. New designs, such as the blended-wing-body, enable a more flexible integration of new storage technologies and energy converters, e.g., cryogenic hydrogen tanks and fuel cells. Against this background, a tank-design model is formulated, which considers geometrical, mechanical and thermal aspects, as well as specific mission profiles while considering a power supply by a fuel cell. This design approach enables the determination of required tank mass and storage density, respectively. A new evaluation value is defined including the vented hydrogen mass throughout the flight enabling more transparent insights on mass shares. Subsequently, a systematic approach in tank partitioning leads to associated compromises regarding the tank weight. The analysis shows that cryogenic hydrogen tanks are highly competitive with kerosene tanks in terms of overall mass, which is further improved by the use of a fuel cell.

  19. A new role-model for the future humanities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caviglia, Francesco; Pedersen, Alex Young

    of citizens” who work together to design solutions for living better together, which the authors suggest being an equally productive role-model as the idea of a “scientific research groups and industrial design teams”, which is the standard role-model for KB prac-tice. The authors sees this alternative model...... as an important contribution and supplement for the future Humanities in the university....

  20. Tool Support for Distributed Software Development : The past - present - and future of gaps between user requirements and tool functionalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrera, Miles; van Hillegersberg, Jos; Harmsen, Frank; Amrit, Chintan Amrit; Geisberger, Eva; Keil, Patrick; Kuhrmann, Marco

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the past, present, and our view on future user requirements and tool functionalities supporting Globally Distributed Software Teams and highlights the changing emphasis in these user requirements.

  1. Grid requirements applicable to future NPPs in the new European Electricity Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beato Castro, D.; Padill, C. M.

    2000-01-01

    With a view to keeping nuclear energy as an option for future power generation in a competitive market and taking advantage of the current operating experience, a group of European electric utilities have come together to define common requirements for the design and supply of future Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants connected to the electrical system. These requirements, defined with the aim of standardizing and adapting design to the conditions of the new electricity framework, are being included in the European Utility Requirements (EUR) document. Although there are different types of power plants operating appropriately in large electrical systems, the idea is to find the minimum requirements that will allow growth of this type of energy in the European electricity industry without reducing quality, safety and reliability of interconnected electrical systems. It is therefore necessary to take into account the features of the existing power systems and the operating characteristics and design of nuclear power plants so as to harmonize their respective technical peculiarities in the framework of the deregulated electricity sector. The definition of these grid requirements is based primarily on the operating conditions of the Union pour la Coordination de la Production et le Transport de L'Electricite (UCPTE) grid and takes into account the current Grid Code of the main European countries, for the forthcoming Issue C. This paper sets outs the most relevant aspects of the grid requirements, included in Chapter 2.3 of the EUR document Grid Requirements, Issue B, for the connection of future nuclear power plants in the European electricity system, and others that are being considered in the preparation of the new issue of the document that will take into account the deregulated electricity market situation and deal with the following aspects: General characteristics. Operation of a plant under normal grid conditions. Operation of a plant under disturbed grid

  2. Modelling Approach to Assess Future Agricultural Water Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spano, D.; Mancosu, N.; Orang, M.; Sarreshteh, S.; Snyder, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    The combination of long-term climate changes (e.g., warmer average temperatures) and extremes events (e.g., droughts) can have decisive impacts on water demand, with further implications on the ecosystems. In countries already affected by water scarcity, water management problems are becoming increasingly serious. The sustainable management of available water resources at the global, regional, and site-specific level is necessary. In agriculture, the first step is to compute how much water is needed by crops in regards to climate conditions. Modelling approach can be a way to compute crop water requirement (CWR). In this study, the improved version of the SIMETAW model was used. The model is a user friendly soil water balance model, developed by the University of California, Davis, the California Department of Water Resource, and the University of Sassari. The SIMETAW# model assesses CWR and generates hypothetical irrigation scheduling for a wide range of irrigated crops experiencing full, deficit, or no irrigation. The model computes the evapotranspiration of the applied water (ETaw), which is the sum of the net amount of irrigation water needed to match losses due to the crop evapotranspiration (ETc). ETaw is determined by first computing reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using the daily standardized Reference Evapotranspiration equation. ETaw is computed as ETaw = CETc - CEr, where CETc and CE are the cumulative total crop ET and effective rainfall values, respectively. Crop evapotranspiration is estimated as ETc = ETo x Kc, where Kc is the corrected midseason tabular crop coefficient, adjusted for climate conditions. The net irrigation amounts are determined from a daily soil water balance, using an integrated approach that considers soil and crop management information, and the daily ETc estimates. Using input information on irrigation system distribution uniformity and runoff, when appropriate, the model estimates the applied water to the low quarter of the

  3. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well......Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias......) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from...

  4. From requirements to Java in a snap model-driven requirements engineering in practice

    CERN Document Server

    Smialek, Michal

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a coherent methodology for Model-Driven Requirements Engineering which stresses the systematic treatment of requirements within the realm of modelling and model transformations. The underlying basic assumption is that detailed requirements models are used as first-class artefacts playing a direct role in constructing software. To this end, the book presents the Requirements Specification Language (RSL) that allows precision and formality, which eventually permits automation of the process of turning requirements into a working system by applying model transformations and co

  5. Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acharjee, Tapos Kumar; Ludwig, Fulco; Halsema, van Gerardo; Hellegers, Petra; Supit, Iwan

    2017-01-01

    Understanding future changes in crop water requirements and irrigation demand in the context of climate change is essential for long-term water resources management and agricultural planning. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on future water requirements of dry season Boro

  6. Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

    2004-01-01

    Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

  7. When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  9. A goal-oriented requirements modelling language for enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quartel, Dick; Engelsman, W.; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten J.

    2009-01-01

    Methods for enterprise architecture, such as TOGAF, acknowledge the importance of requirements engineering in the development of enterprise architectures. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. Current modelling techniques for

  10. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  11. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Hoffmann

    Full Text Available The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  12. Faculty Unions, Business Models, and the Academy's Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Gary

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the author addresses questions about the future of faculty unions, business models, and the academy by providing some current and historical context regarding the causes of and conflicts about faculty unions. He also reviews trends in college and university management over the past three decades, using California, Ohio, and…

  13. Perspectives on Global Energy Futures Simulation with the TIME model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, H.J.M.; Janssen, M.A.; Beusen, A.

    1999-01-01

    Many uncertainties and controversies surround the future of the global energy system. The Targets IMage Energy (TIME) model of which a concise description is given, is used to explore the consequences of divergent assumptions about some uncertain and controversial issues. The IPCC-IS92a Conventional

  14. The Standard Model from LHC to future colliders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forte, S.; Ferrera, G.; Vicini, A. [Universita di Milano, Dipartimento di Fisica, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Milan (Italy); Nisati, A. [INFN, Sezione di Roma, Rome (Italy); Passarino, G.; Magnea, L. [Universita di Torino, Dipartimento di Fisica, Turin (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Torino, Turin (Italy); Tenchini, R. [INFN, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Calame, C.M.C. [Universita di Pavia, Dipartimento di Fisica, Pavia (Italy); Chiesa, M.; Nicrosini, O.; Piccinini, F. [INFN, Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Cobal, M. [Universita di Udine, Dipartimento di Chimica, Fisica e Ambiente, Udine (Italy); INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Udine, Udine (Italy); Corcella, G. [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (Italy); Degrassi, G. [Universita' Roma Tre, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Rome (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Roma Tre, Rome (Italy); Maltoni, F. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Montagna, G. [Universita di Pavia, Dipartimento di Fisica, Pavia (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Nason, P. [INFN, Sezione di Milano-Bicocca, Milan (Italy); Oleari, C. [Universita di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Fisica, Milan (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano-Bicocca, Milan (Italy); Riva, F. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Institut de Theorie des Phenomenes Physiques, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2015-11-15

    This review summarizes the results of the activities which have taken place in 2014 within the Standard Model Working Group of the ''What Next'' Workshop organized by INFN, Italy. We present a framework, general questions, and some indications of possible answers on the main issue for Standard Model physics in the LHC era and in view of possible future accelerators. (orig.)

  15. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors (SMRs) based on operating experience and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    At the time of this study there were about 160 small and medium sized nuclear power reactors (referred to as SMRs) in operation worldwide, and about 25 more under construction. Operation and maintenance costs for operating SMRs represent a substantial portion of the cost of electricity produced. Of these costs, the direct and indirect cost of staff represents the major cost component. In recent years, particularly since 1990, there has been increased interest in SMRs by many developing countries wishing to take advantage of nuclear power and several small and medium reactor designs are in various stages of development. To enhance the economic competitive position of SMRs relative to alternative methods of electricity generation, it is essential to ensure that new SMRs can be operated reliably and efficiently using the optimum number of staff. This publication reviews the lessons learned from the reactor operation, and the insights gained through the design of new SMRs, with a view to optimizing staffing in order to improve overall plant economics without compromising safety.This publication is intended to evaluate the estimated staffing size of various SMRs, the staff qualification and training required for the operation of future SMRs. and the key issues which impact the staffing requirements that should be considered in the development and deployment of future SMRs

  16. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  17. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  18. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  19. The requirements for the future e-beam mask writer: statistical analysis of pattern accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Hee; Choi, Jin; Kim, Hee Bom; Kim, Byung Gook; Cho, Han-Ku

    2011-11-01

    As semiconductor features shrink in size and pitch, the extreme control of CD uniformity, MTT and image placement is needed for mask fabrication with e-beam lithography. Among the many sources of CD and image placement error, the error resulting from e-beam mask writer becomes more important than before. CD and positioning error by e-beam mask writer is mainly related to the imperfection of e-beam deflection accuracy in optic system and the charging and contamination of column. To avoid these errors, the e-beam mask writer should be designed taking into account for these effects. However, the writing speed is considered for machine design with the highest priority, because the e-beam shot count is increased rapidly due to design shrink and aggressive OPC. The increment of shot count can make the pattern shift problem due to statistical issue resulting from e-beam deflection error and the total shot count in layout. And it affects the quality of CD and image placement too. In this report, the statistical approach on CD and image placement error caused by e-beam shot position error is presented. It is estimated for various writing conditions including the intrinsic e-beam positioning error of VSB writer. From the simulation study, the required e-beam shot position accuracy to avoid pattern shift problem in 22nm node and beyond is estimated taking into account for total shot count. And the required local CD uniformity is calculated for various e-beam writing conditions. The image placement error is also simulated for various conditions including e-beam writing field position error. Consequently, the requirements for the future e-beam mask writer and the writing conditions are discussed. And in terms of e-beam shot noise, LER caused by exposure dose and shot position error is studied for future e-beam mask writing for 22nm node and beyond.

  20. Future directions for LDEF ionizing radiation modeling and assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

    1993-01-01

    A calculational program utilizing data from radiation dosimetry measurements aboard the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite to reduce the uncertainties in current models defining the ionizing radiation environment is in progress. Most of the effort to date has been on using LDEF radiation dose measurements to evaluate models defining the geomagnetically trapped radiation, which has provided results applicable to radiation design assessments being performed for Space Station Freedom. Plans for future data comparisons, model evaluations, and assessments using additional LDEF data sets (LET spectra, induced radioactivity, and particle spectra) are discussed.

  1. Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malo, Pekka

    2009-11-01

    Electricity prices are known to exhibit multifractal properties. We accommodate this finding by investigating multifractal models for electricity prices. In this paper we propose a flexible Copula-MSM (Markov Switching Multifractal) approach for modeling spot and weekly futures price dynamics. By using a conditional copula function, the framework allows us to separately model the dependence structure, while enabling use of multifractal stochastic volatility models to characterize fluctuations in marginal returns. An empirical experiment is carried out using data from Nord Pool. A study of volatility forecasting performance for electricity spot prices reveals that multifractal techniques are a competitive alternative to GARCH models. We also demonstrate how the Copula-MSM model can be employed for finding optimal portfolios, which minimizes the Conditional Value-at-Risk.

  2. Studying cancer metastasis: Existing models, challenges and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Marion, Denise M S; Domanska, Urszula M; Timmer-Bosscha, Hetty; Walenkamp, Annemiek M E

    2016-01-01

    Cancer metastasis causes most cancer-related deaths. Several model systems to study the complex and multi step process of metastasis exist, including in vitro systems, ex-vivo organ slices, Drosophila Melanogaster and zebrafish models and the use of the chorio allantoic membrane (CAM) of fertilized chicken eggs. These models are relatively easy and cheap but often lack the opportunity to study the complete metastasis cascade. More complex but also more expensive is the use of animal models including the more recently developed patient derived tumor xenografts (PDTX). In this review, we give an overview of the existing metastatic models, discuss the challenges of improving current models to enhance translation from the preclinical to the clinical setting and consider future perspectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors based on projections in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonovsky, G.M.; Kodochigov, N.G.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Novikov, V.V.

    2001-01-01

    Experimental Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering (OKBM) specializes in the development of small and medium power reactors having different purposes. They include reactor plants for NPHPP, nuclear district heating power plants and propulsion plants. Small and medium power plants have simpler processes of electricity and heat production, less systems, simpler control algorithms and considerably enhanced inherent safety properties. These plants are mainly equipped with passive safety systems. These properties are especially characteristic for reactor plants of nuclear district heating power plants and HTG reactor plants. The designs of small and medium power plants actually provide a high degree of control automation which considerably reduces workload on the personnel in both normal and abnormal operation conditions. All this allows the reduction in personnel for small and medium power reactors if compared to high capacity reactor plants. But due to objective reasons the specific number of personnel (man/MW) for average and especially small capacity reactors considerably exceeds the value for high capacity reactor plants. At the same time one can propose a set of organization - technical measures allowing the increase in this value in future. Safety requirements imposed for small and average capacity reactors are the same or more strict than those for high capacity reactors. That's why the requirements to the training of personnel for such reactor plants are not allowed to be lowered if compared to the requirements imposed to the personnel of high capacity reactors. (author)

  4. REQUIREMENTS PARTICLE NETWORKS: AN APPROACH TO FORMAL SOFTWARE FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS MODELLING

    OpenAIRE

    Wiwat Vatanawood; Wanchai Rivepiboon

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, an approach to software functional requirements modelling using requirements particle networks is presented. In our approach, a set of requirements particles is defined as an essential tool to construct a visual model of software functional requirements specification during the software analysis phase and the relevant formal specification is systematically generated without the experience of writing formal specification. A number of algorithms are presented to perform these for...

  5. Building traceable Event-B models from requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Alkhammash, Eman; Butler, Michael; Fathabadi, Asieh Salehi; Cîrstea, Corina

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Bridging the gap between informal requirements and formal specifications is a key challenge in systems engineering. Constructing appropriate abstractions in formal models requires skill and managing the complexity of the relationships between requirements and formal models can be difficult. In this paper we present an approach that aims to address the twin challenges of finding appropriate abstractions and managing traceability between requirements and models. Our approach is based o...

  6. Future aerospace ground test facility requirements for the Arnold Engineering Development Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, Mark E.; Baron, Judson R.; Bogdonoff, Seymour M.; Carter, Donald I.; Couch, Lana M.; Fanning, Arthur E.; Heiser, William H.; Koff, Bernard L.; Melnik, Robert E.; Mercer, Stephen C.

    1992-01-01

    Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) was conceived at the close of World War II, when major new developments in flight technology were presaged by new aerodynamic and propulsion concepts. During the past 40 years, AEDC has played a significant part in the development of many aerospace systems. The original plans were extended through the years by some additional facilities, particularly in the area of propulsion testing. AEDC now has undertaken development of a master plan in an attempt to project requirements and to plan for ground test and computational facilities over the coming 20 to 30 years. This report was prepared in response to an AEDC request that the National Research Council (NRC) assemble a committee to prepare guidance for planning and modernizing AEDC facilities for the development and testing of future classes of aerospace systems as envisaged by the U.S. Air Force.

  7. International evaluation of current and future requirements for environmental engineering education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenroth, E; Daigger, G T; Ledin, A; Keller, J

    2004-01-01

    The field of environmental engineering is developing as a result of changing environmental requirements. In response, environmental engineering education (E3) needs to ensure that it provides students with the necessary tools to address these challenges. In this paper the current status and future development of E3 is evaluated based on a questionnaire sent to universities and potential employers of E3 graduates. With increasing demands on environmental quality, the complexity of environmental engineering problems to be solved can be expected to increase. To find solutions environmental engineers will need to work in interdisciplinary teams. Based on the questionnaire there was a broad agreement that the best way to prepare students for these future challenges is to provide them with a fundamental education in basic sciences and related engineering fields. Many exciting developments in the environmental engineering profession will be located at the interface between engineering, science, and society. Aspects of all three areas need to be included in E3 and the student needs to be exposed to the tensions associated with linking the three.

  8. Energy Requirements by the Water Sector in the Southwestern US: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averyt, K.; Yates, D. N.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate, energy, and water are fundamentally linked such that shifts in one sector have cascading impacts on the others. Consideration of the integrated system is necessary to fully understand the individual risk profile of each sector. In defining vulnerabilities and potential adaptations, the policy and regulatory environment must be considered alongside the biological and physical systems. Take, for example, the Southwestern U.S., a naturally arid system, where water availability is declining as a consequence of climate change and population growth. Adaptations by the water sector to convey, store, and develop new water sources (e.g. desalination, groundwater pumping, water-reuse) are strategies designed to enhance sustainability of the sector. But, the energy requirements embedded in these management techniques pose challenges to electric utilities. West wide, approximately 20% of total electricity generation goes toward supplying and heating water. If future investments made by the water sector to deal with changing supply and demand regimes continue to follow current trends, the dependence of water on energy availability will grow, meaning that the water supply will be increasingly reliant on the electricity system. Here, we use the example of long-term aridity and the recent drought in the Western US to illustrate the tradeoffs and challenges inherent at the nexus between energy and water. We present long-term trends in the energy intensity of water supplies in the Southwestern US, with a specific focus on groundwater systems. Projected energy requirements for proposed and future conveyance systems are discussed. The potential impacts of reduced flows on the Colorado River on the energy demands for groundwater pumping in the Lower Colorado River Basin are highlighted.

  9. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  10. Specification of advanced safety modeling requirements (Rev. 0).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fanning, T. H.; Tautges, T. J.

    2008-06-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership has lead to renewed interest in liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors for the purpose of closing the nuclear fuel cycle and making more efficient use of future repository capacity. However, the U.S. has not designed or constructed a fast reactor in nearly 30 years. Accurate, high-fidelity, whole-plant dynamics safety simulations will play a crucial role by providing confidence that component and system designs will satisfy established design limits and safety margins under a wide variety of operational, design basis, and beyond design basis transient conditions. Current modeling capabilities for fast reactor safety analyses have resulted from several hundred person-years of code development effort supported by experimental validation. The broad spectrum of mechanistic and phenomenological models that have been developed represent an enormous amount of institutional knowledge that needs to be maintained. Complicating this, the existing code architectures for safety modeling evolved from programming practices of the 1970s. This has lead to monolithic applications with interdependent data models which require significant knowledge of the complexities of the entire code in order for each component to be maintained. In order to develop an advanced fast reactor safety modeling capability, the limitations of the existing code architecture must be overcome while preserving the capabilities that already exist. To accomplish this, a set of advanced safety modeling requirements is defined, based on modern programming practices, that focuses on modular development within a flexible coupling framework. An approach for integrating the existing capabilities of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code into the SHARP framework is provided in order to preserve existing capabilities while providing a smooth transition to advanced modeling capabilities. In doing this, the advanced fast reactor safety models

  11. Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayarzaguena, B.; Langematz, U.; Polvani, L. M; Abalichin, J.; Akiyoshi, H.; Klekociuk, A.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Oman, L.

    2015-01-01

    Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

  12. Interwar Period Officer Education: A Model for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-23

    the encirclement from the southwest of the Allied forces in Tunisia . However, officer education prepared the inexperienced American combat leaders to...campaign in Tunisia indicate that officer education must have an aspect of doctrinal and tactical mastery, strong logistical understanding, an emphasis on...Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited Interwar Period Officer Education : A Model For The Future A Monograph by MAJ Jason S

  13. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Gernaey, Krist V

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit processes in wastewater treatment plants could potentially benefit from this framework, especially when distributed dynamics have a significant impact on the overall unit process performance. In these cases, current models that rely on average properties cannot sufficiently capture the true behaviour and even lead to completely wrong conclusions. Examples of distributed properties are bubble size, floc size, crystal size or granule size. In these cases, PBMs can be used to develop new knowledge that can be embedded in our current models to improve their predictive capability. Hence, PBMs should be regarded as a complementary modelling framework to biokinetic models. This paper provides an overview of current applications, future potential and limitations of PBMs in the field of wastewater treatment modelling, thereby looking over the fence to other scientific disciplines.

  14. State of the Art : Integrated Management of Requirements in Model-Based Software Engineering

    OpenAIRE

    Thörn, Christer

    2006-01-01

    This report describes the background and future of research concerning integrated management of requirements in model-based software engineering. The focus is on describing the relevant topics and existing theoretical backgrounds that form the basis for the research. The report describes the fundamental difficulties of requirements engineering for software projects, and proposes that the results and methods of models in software engineering can help leverage those problems. Taking inspiration...

  15. Mixing Formal and Informal Model Elements for Tracing Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jastram, Michael; Hallerstede, Stefan; Ladenberger, Lukas

    2011-01-01

    Tracing between informal requirements and formal models is challenging. A method for such tracing should permit to deal efficiently with changes to both the requirements and the model. A particular challenge is posed by the persisting interplay of formal and informal elements. In this paper, we...... describe an incremental approach to requirements validation and systems modelling. Formal modelling facilitates a high degree of automation: it serves for validation and traceability. The foundation for our approach are requirements that are structured according to the WRSPM reference model. We provide...... a system for traceability with a state-based formal method that supports refinement. We do not require all specification elements to be modelled formally and support incremental incorporation of new specification elements into the formal model. Refinement is used to deal with larger amounts of requirements...

  16. Model of future officers' availability to the management physical training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olkhovy O.M.

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A purpose of work is creation of model of readiness of graduating student to implementation of official questions of guidance, organization and leadthrough of physical preparation in the process of military-professional activity. An analysis is conducted more than 40 sources and questionnaire questioning of a 21 expert. For introduction of model to the system of physical preparation of students the list of its basic constituents is certain: theoretical methodical readiness; functionally-physical readiness; organizationally-administrative readiness. It is certain that readiness of future officers to military-professional activity foresees determination of level of forming of motive capabilities, development of general physical qualities.

  17. Requirements and solutions for future pellet technology; Krav och loesningar foer framtidens pelletsteknik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulrud, Susanne; Roennbaeck, Marie; Ryde, Daniel; Laitila, Thomas

    2010-07-01

    Requirements and solutions for future pellet burning technologies Since 2006, sales of pellet burning technologies to the Swedish residential market have fallen. The main reasons for this decrease are: many of the economically favorable easy conversions from oil to pellets have been made; competition from heat pumps; warm winters; a stable electricity price; and the current structure of heating in residential buildings, where electric heating dominates. To change this falling trend pellets need to become more attractive to consumers. This project aimed to analyze the requirements for the next generation of pellets systems and to develop potential solutions, in collaboration with the pellets industry. More specifically, the study looked at consumers' attitudes toward heating choices and different heating through a survey to 2000 house owners across Sweden. The project included a market analysis of Swedish and international technologies and examines the conditions for Swedish pellet burning technology in different markets. In addition, new solutions and developments for Swedish pellets burning technology are described

  18. Future mission opportunities and requirements for advanced space photovoltaic energy conversion technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Dennis J.

    1990-01-01

    The variety of potential future missions under consideration by NASA will impose a broad range of requirements on space solar arrays, and mandates the development of new solar cells which can offer a wide range of capabilities to mission planners. Major advances in performance have recently been achieved at several laboratories in a variety of solar cell types. Many of those recent advances are reviewed, the areas are examined where possible improvements are yet to be made, and the requirements are discussed that must be met by advanced solar cell if they are to be used in space. The solar cells of interest include single and multiple junction cells which are fabricated from single crystal, polycrystalline and amorphous materials. Single crystal cells on foreign substrates, thin film single crystal cells on superstrates, and multiple junction cells which are either mechanically stacked, monolithically grown, or hybrid structures incorporating both techniques are discussed. Advanced concentrator array technology for space applications is described, and the status of thin film, flexible solar array blanket technology is reported.

  19. Review of the ASDEX upgrade data acquisition environment - present operation and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behler, K.; Blank, H.; Buhler, A.; Drube, R.; Friedrich, H.; Foerster, K.; Hallatschek, K.; Heimann, P.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Heimann, R.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Merkel, R.; Pacco-Duechs, M.-G.; Raupp, G.; Reuter, H.; Schneider-Maxon, U.; Tisma, R.; Zilker, M.

    1999-01-01

    The data acquisition environment of the ASDEX upgrade fusion experiment was designed in the late 1980s to handle a predicted quantity of 8 Mbytes fo data per discharge. After 7 years of operation a review of the whole data acquisition and analysis environment shows what remains of the original design ideas. Comparing the original 15 diagnostics with the present set of 250 diagnostic datasets generated per shot shows how the system has grown. Although now a vast accumulation of functional parts, the system still works in a stable manner and is maintainable. The underlying concepts affirming these qualities are modularity and compatibility. Modularity ensures that most parts of the system can be modified without affecting others. Standards for data structures and interfaces between components and methods are the prerequisites which make modularity work. The experience of the last few years shows that, besides the standards achieved, new, mainly real-time, features are needed: real-time event recognition allowing reaction to complex changing conditions; real-time wavelet analysis allowing adapted sampling rates; real-time data exchange between diagnostics and control; real-time networks allowing flexible computer coupling to permit interplay between different components; object-oriented programming concepts and databases are required for readily adaptable software modules. A final assessment of our present data processing situation and future requirements shows that modern information technology methods have to be applied more intensively to provide the most flexible means to improve the interaction of all components on a large fusion device. (orig.)

  20. Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tringali, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    ... associated with military training exercises. The model combines the business practice of Material Requirements Planning and the commercial spreadsheet software capabilities of Lotus 1-2-3 to calculate the requirements for food, consumable...

  1. Extending enterprise architecture modelling with business goals and requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelsman, W.; Quartel, Dick; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten J.

    The methods for enterprise architecture (EA), such as The Open Group Architecture Framework, acknowledge the importance of requirements modelling in the development of EAs. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. The current modelling

  2. Formal Requirements Modeling for Simulation-Based Verification

    OpenAIRE

    Otter, Martin; Thuy, Nguyen; Bouskela, Daniel; Buffoni, Lena; Elmqvist, Hilding; Fritzson, Peter; Garro, Alfredo; Jardin, Audrey; Olsson, Hans; Payelleville, Maxime; Schamai, Wladimir; Thomas, Eric; Tundis, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a proposal on how to model formal requirements in Modelica for simulation-based verification. The approach is implemented in the open source Modelica_Requirements library. It requires extensions to the Modelica language, that have been prototypically implemented in the Dymola and Open-Modelica software. The design of the library is based on the FOrmal Requirement Modeling Language (FORM-L) defined by EDF, and on industrial use cases from EDF and Dassault Aviation. It uses...

  3. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  4. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  5. The Job Demands–Resources model: Challenges for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelia Demerouti

    2011-05-01

    Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD–R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studies on the JD–R model were reviewed to enlighten the health and motivational processes suggested by the model. Main findings: Next to the confirmation of the two suggested processes of the JD–R model, the studies of the special issue showed that the model can be used to predict work-place bullying, incidences of upper respiratory track infection, work-based identity, and early retirement intentions. Moreover, whilst psychological safety climate could be considered as a hypothetical precursor of job demands and resources, compassion satisfaction moderated the health process of the model. Contribution/value-add: The findings of previous studies and the studies of the special issue were integrated in the JD–R model that can be used to predict well-being and performance at work. New avenues for future research were suggested. Practical/managerial implications: The JD–R model is a framework that can be used for organisations to improve employee health and motivation, whilst simultaneously improving various organisational outcomes.

  6. Extending enterprise architecture modelling with business goals and requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelsman, Wilco; Quartel, Dick; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten

    2011-02-01

    The methods for enterprise architecture (EA), such as The Open Group Architecture Framework, acknowledge the importance of requirements modelling in the development of EAs. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. The current modelling techniques for EA focus on the products, services, processes and applications of an enterprise. In addition, techniques may be provided to describe structured requirements lists and use cases. Little support is available however for modelling the underlying motivation of EAs in terms of stakeholder concerns and the high-level goals that address these concerns. This article describes a language that supports the modelling of this motivation. The definition of the language is based on existing work on high-level goal and requirements modelling and is aligned with an existing standard for enterprise modelling: the ArchiMate language. Furthermore, the article illustrates how EA can benefit from analysis techniques from the requirements engineering domain.

  7. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Blenckner, Thorsten; Heikinheimo, Outi; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Niiranen, Susa; Tomczak, Maciej T; Aro, Eero; Wikström, Anders; Möllmann, Christian

    2013-06-01

    Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

  8. Modeling past and future acidification of Swedish lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldan, Filip; Cosby, Bernard J; Wright, Richard F

    2013-09-01

    Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of "not naturally acidified" (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.

  9. Estimation of the energy storage requirement of a future 100% renewable energy system in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteban, Miguel; Zhang, Qi; Utama, Agya

    2012-01-01

    Renewable energy systems are often criticized because of their intermittency and need for substantial amount of backup in terms of other energy sources or storage. The present paper proposes a method to estimate the required amount of storage backup for a mostly solar and wind system that uses also biomass and hydroenergy as minor components of the electricity mix. An hourly simulation was carried out to determine the amount of electricity that could be produced based on the meteorological conditions of year 2001 in Japan, and this was compared with the maximum electricity demands imposed in the system for each month of the year. The system thus proposed has 100% chance of meeting around 40% of the electricity demand between 11:00 and 18:00, and the optimum scenario obtained (a 2:1 mix of solar to wind energy) required around 40 TW of storage to balance the extra electricity demand that occurs during the summer in Japan. It appears unlikely that the batteries in EV in vehicles will be able to meet this storage requirement in the future, though the system is able to adequately meet the electricity demand during the majority of the year, and hence showcases the viability of renewable energy. - Highlights: ► A PV-wind-hydro-biomass energy system in Japan could supply electricity for the whole country by 2100. ► Due to smoothening the system has an almost 100% chance of meeting around 40% of the electricity demand between 11:00 and 18:00. ► The system proposed is generally very stable during the winter, spring and autumn periods in Japan, with very small amounts of battery storage being able to successfully meet the electricity demand during these periods. ► It appears unlikely that the batteries in EV will be able to provide enough storage (as the total expected storage by 2100 is likely to be 20 times smaller than the required to balance the system during the summer months.

  10. Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

    2014-12-01

    General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

  11. Rodent models in Down syndrome research: impact and future opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yann Herault

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Down syndrome is caused by trisomy of chromosome 21. To date, a multiplicity of mouse models with Down-syndrome-related features has been developed to understand this complex human chromosomal disorder. These mouse models have been important for determining genotype-phenotype relationships and identification of dosage-sensitive genes involved in the pathophysiology of the condition, and in exploring the impact of the additional chromosome on the whole genome. Mouse models of Down syndrome have also been used to test therapeutic strategies. Here, we provide an overview of research in the last 15 years dedicated to the development and application of rodent models for Down syndrome. We also speculate on possible and probable future directions of research in this fast-moving field. As our understanding of the syndrome improves and genome engineering technologies evolve, it is necessary to coordinate efforts to make all Down syndrome models available to the community, to test therapeutics in models that replicate the whole trisomy and design new animal models to promote further discovery of potential therapeutic targets.

  12. Rodent models in Down syndrome research: impact and future opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herault, Yann; Delabar, Jean M; Fisher, Elizabeth M C; Tybulewicz, Victor L J; Yu, Eugene; Brault, Veronique

    2017-10-01

    Down syndrome is caused by trisomy of chromosome 21. To date, a multiplicity of mouse models with Down-syndrome-related features has been developed to understand this complex human chromosomal disorder. These mouse models have been important for determining genotype-phenotype relationships and identification of dosage-sensitive genes involved in the pathophysiology of the condition, and in exploring the impact of the additional chromosome on the whole genome. Mouse models of Down syndrome have also been used to test therapeutic strategies. Here, we provide an overview of research in the last 15 years dedicated to the development and application of rodent models for Down syndrome. We also speculate on possible and probable future directions of research in this fast-moving field. As our understanding of the syndrome improves and genome engineering technologies evolve, it is necessary to coordinate efforts to make all Down syndrome models available to the community, to test therapeutics in models that replicate the whole trisomy and design new animal models to promote further discovery of potential therapeutic targets. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  13. Using cognitive modeling for requirements engineering in anesthesiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pott, C; le Feber, J

    2005-01-01

    Cognitive modeling is a complexity reducing method to describe significant cognitive processes under a specified research focus. Here, a cognitive process model for decision making in anesthesiology is presented and applied in requirements engineering. Three decision making situations of

  14. Modern requirements to professional training of future teacher of physical culture in the conditions of informatization of teaching.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naumenko O.I.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Modern requirements to professional training of future teacher of physical culture in the conditions of informatization of teaching are examined. It is exposed, that in the conditions of introduction of the modern newest information technologies in teaching new requirements are put to training of future teacher of physical culture. Abilities which must characterize the modern teacher of physical culture are indicated. It is marked that application of information technologies in industry of physical education optimizes an educational process. However there are contradictions between growth of their role in studies and direct application of these technologies in the field of knowledges. It is certain that a future specialist must adhere to the certain requirements of information technologies. It is marked that to the basic measures on implementation of the program providing of high-quality level of preparation of future teachers belongs to professional activity.

  15. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... risk, and other risks created by the futures commission merchant's proprietary and noncustomer clearing... Holding Company Act of 1956; or (3) In the case of a Material Affiliated Person that is subject to the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

  16. The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

    2016-01-28

    The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When

  17. Modeling Domain Variability in Requirements Engineering with Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapouchnian, Alexei; Mylopoulos, John

    Various characteristics of the problem domain define the context in which the system is to operate and thus impact heavily on its requirements. However, most requirements specifications do not consider contextual properties and few modeling notations explicitly specify how domain variability affects the requirements. In this paper, we propose an approach for using contexts to model domain variability in goal models. We discuss the modeling of contexts, the specification of their effects on system goals, and the analysis of goal models with contextual variability. The approach is illustrated with a case study.

  18. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  19. Cognitive Attachment Model of Voices: Evidence Base and Future Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Katherine; Varese, Filippo; Bucci, Sandra

    2017-01-01

    There is a robust association between hearing voices and exposure to traumatic events. Identifying mediating mechanisms for this relationship is key to theories of voice hearing and the development of therapies for distressing voices. This paper outlines the Cognitive Attachment model of Voices (CAV), a theoretical model to understand the relationship between earlier interpersonal trauma and distressing voice hearing. The model builds on attachment theory and well-established cognitive models of voices and argues that attachment and dissociative processes are key psychological mechanisms that explain how trauma influences voice hearing. Following the presentation of the model, the paper will review the current state of evidence regarding the proposed mechanisms of vulnerability to voice hearing and maintenance of voice-related distress. This review will include evidence from studies supporting associations between dissociation and voices, followed by details of our own research supporting the role of dissociation in mediating the relationship between trauma and voices and evidence supporting the role of adult attachment in influencing beliefs and relationships that voice hearers can develop with voices. The paper concludes by outlining the key questions that future research needs to address to fully test the model and the clinical implications that arise from the work.

  20. The implications of user requirements for the functionality and content of a future EGDI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mikael; Tulstrup, Jørgen

    2014-05-01

    The FP7 co-funded EGDI-Scope project is conducting analyses, which forms the basis for the development of an implementation plan for a future European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI) the aim of which will be to serve pan-European geological information from the European geological survey organisations. An important aspect of the project has been to consult stakeholders in order to deduce requirements, which is a fundamental prerequisite for making recommendations on the content and technical design of the system. It is indisputable that EGDI will have to build on international standards such as OGC and CGI and take into account legislative requirements from e.g. the INSPIRE directive. This will support the tasks of data providers and facilitate integration with other e-Infrastructures, but will not in itself lever the end user experiences. In order to make the future EGDI a successful online contributor of geological information, EGDI-Scope has therefore been looking very concretely into the needs and expectations of various user groups Most people have clear expectations anno 2014. They want to be able to search the web for information, and once found, they expect fast-performing, intuitive web applications with buttons to click, maps to navigate and reliable content to fulfil their immediate needs. In order for the EGDI to handle such requirements, a number of use cases for various thematic areas have been assessed. The use cases reveal (for example) that information about the geological composition of the ground is critical for the assessment of things like ecosystems or ground water quality. But where ecosystem assessment relies on the composition of the surface layers, groundwater geochemistry rely on the lithology of subsurface layers. For both scenarios, harmonised, pan-European geological maps are very important, but the harmonisation should not only relate to lithological classes, but also to the depth representation. The use cases also make clear

  1. The Model of Formation of Professional Competence of Future Software Engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Sedov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The rapid technological development of modern society fundamentally changes processes of production, communication and services. There is a great demand for specialists who are competent in recently emerged industries. Moreover, the gap between scientific invention and its wide distribution and consumption has significantly reduced. Therefore, we face an urgent need for preparation of specialists in higher education that meet the requirements of modern society and labour market. Particularly relevant is the issue of training of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree, which is the level of education that trains not only professionals, but also scientists and university teachers. The article presents a developed model of formation of professional competence of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree. The model comprises units of training of future software engineers, identifies methodological approaches, a number of general didactic and methodological principles that underpin learning processes in higher education. It describes methods, forms of organization and means that are used in the system of master’s degree, and also provides pedagogical conditions of effective implementation of the model. The developed model addresses the issue of individualization, intensification and optimization of studying. While developing the model, special attention was paid to updating the content of education and searching for new organizational forms of training of future software engineers.

  2. Software Requirements Specification Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. E. Shropshire; W. H. West

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this Software Requirements Specification (SRS) is to define the top-level requirements for a Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation Model (VISION) of the Advanced Fuel Cycle (AFC). This simulation model is intended to serve a broad systems analysis and study tool applicable to work conducted as part of the AFCI (including costs estimates) and Generation IV reactor development studies

  3. Modeling of Soybean under Present and Future Climates in Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel António Dina Talacuece

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to calibrate and validate the generic crop model (CROPGRO-Soybean and estimate the soybean yield, considering simulations with different sowing times for the current period (1990–2013 and future climate scenario (2014–2030. The database used came from observed data, nine climate models of CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa framework and MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis. The calibration and validation data for the model were acquired in field experiments, carried out in the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 growing seasons in the experimental area of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA in Angónia, Mozambique. The yield of two soybean cultivars: Tgx 1740-2F and Tgx 1908-8F was evaluated in the experiments and modeled for two distinct CO2 concentrations. Our model simulation results indicate that the fertilization effect leads to yield gains for both cultivars, ranging from 11.4% (Tgx 1908-8F to 15% (Tgx 1740-2Fm when compared to the performance of those cultivars under current CO2 atmospheric concentration. Moreover, our results show that MERRA, the RegCM4 (Regional Climatic Model version 4 and CNRM-CM5 (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques – Climatic Model version 5 models provided more accurate estimates of yield, while others models underestimate yield as compared to observations, a fact that was demonstrated to be related to the model’s capability of reproducing the precipitation and the surface radiation amount.

  4. Engineering the future of military tactical vehicles and systems with modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loew, Matthew; Watters, Brock

    2005-05-01

    Stewart & Stevenson has developed a Modeling and Simulation approach based on Systems Engineering principles for the development of future military vehicles and systems. This approach starts with a requirements analysis phase that captures and distills the design requirements into a list of parameterized values. A series of executable engineering models are constructed to allow the requirements to be transformed into systems with definable architectures with increasing levels of fidelity. Required performance parameters are available for importation into a variety of modeling and simulation tools including PTC Pro/ENGINEER (for initial engineering models, mechanisms, packaging, and detailed 3-Dimensional solid models), LMS International Virtual.Lab Motion (for vehicle dynamics and ride analysis) and AVL Cruise (Powertrain simulations). Structural analysis and optimization (performed in ANSYS, Pro/MECHANICA, and Altair OptiStruct) is based on the initial geometry from Pro/ENGINEER. Spreadsheets are used for requirements analysis, design documentation and first-order studies. Collectively, these models serve as templates for all design activities. Design variables initially studied within a simplified system model can be cascaded down as the new requirements for a sub-system model. By utilizing this approach premature decisions on systems architectures can be avoided. Ultimately, the systems that are developed are optimally able to meet the requirements by utilizing this top-down approach. Additionally, this M&S approach is seen as a life-cycle tool useful in initially assisting with project management activities through the initial and detail design phases and serves as a template for testing and validation/verification activities. Furthermore, because of the multi-tiered approach, there is natural re-use possible with the models as well.

  5. Capabilities and requirements for modelling radionuclide transport in the geosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paige, R.W.; Piper, D.

    1989-02-01

    This report gives an overview of geosphere flow and transport models suitable for use by the Department of the Environment in the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal sites. An outline methodology for geosphere modelling is proposed, consisting of a number of different types of model. A brief description of each of the component models is given, indicating the purpose of the model, the processes being modelled and the methodologies adopted. Areas requiring development are noted. (author)

  6. Computational brain models: Advances from system biology and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George E. Barreto

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational brain models focused on the interactions between neurons and astrocytes, modeled via metabolic reconstructions, are reviewed. The large source of experimental data provided by the -omics techniques and the advance/application of computational and data-management tools are being fundamental. For instance, in the understanding of the crosstalk between these cells, the key neuroprotective mechanisms mediated by astrocytes in specific metabolic scenarios (1 and the identification of biomarkers for neurodegenerative diseases (2,3. However, the modeling of these interactions demands a clear view of the metabolic and signaling pathways implicated, but most of them are controversial and are still under evaluation (4. Hence, to gain insight into the complexity of these interactions a current view of the main pathways implicated in the neuron-astrocyte communication processes have been made from recent experimental reports and reviews. Furthermore, target problems, limitations and main conclusions have been identified from metabolic models of the brain reported from 2010. Finally, key aspects to take into account into the development of a computational model of the brain and topics that could be approached from a systems biology perspective in future research are highlighted.

  7. Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

    2007-01-01

    Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Even...... requirements, where the system to be built must explicitly support the interaction between people within a pervasive cooperative workflow execution. A case study from a real project is used to illustrate the proposed approach....

  8. Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

  9. Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul A. [US Department of Energy, Washington DC 20585 USA; Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO 80401 USA

    2018-02-22

    We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in which low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.

  10. An Observation-based Assessment of Instrument Requirements for a Future Precipitation Process Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.

    2017-12-01

    Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a

  11. Requirements Traceability and Transformation Conformance in Model-Driven Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrade Almeida, João; van Eck, Pascal; Iacob, Maria Eugenia

    2006-01-01

    The variety of design artefacts (models) produced in a model-driven design process results in an intricate rela-tionship between requirements and the various models. This paper proposes a methodological framework that simplifies management of this relationship. This frame-work is a basis for tracing

  12. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    , the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  13. Modelling of gecko foot for future robot application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, A.; Ong, N. R.; Aziz, M. H. A.; Alcain, J. B.; Haimi, W. M. W. N.; Sauli, Z.

    2017-09-01

    Every gecko has an approximately million microscale hairs called setae which made it easy for them to cling from different surfaces at any orientation with the aid of Van der Waals force as the primary mechanism used to adhere to any contact surfaces. In this paper, a strain simulation using Comsol Multiphysic Software was conducted on a 3D MEMS model of an actuated gecko foot with the aim of achieving optimal sticking with various polymetric materials for future robots application. Based on the stress and strain analyses done on the seven different polymers, it was found that polysilicon had the best result which was nearest to 0%, indicating the strongest elasticity among the others. PDMS on the hand, failed in the simulation due to its bulk-like nature. Thus, PDMS was not suitable to be used for further study on gecko foot robot.

  14. Commonsense Psychology and the Functional Requirements of Cognitive Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gordon, Andrew S

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we argue that previous models of cognitive abilities (e.g. memory, analogy) have been constructed to satisfy functional requirements of implicit commonsense psychological theories held by researchers and nonresearchers alike...

  15. Requirements engineering for cross-sectional information chain models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hübner, U; Cruel, E; Gök, M; Garthaus, M; Zimansky, M; Remmers, H; Rienhoff, O

    2012-01-01

    Despite the wealth of literature on requirements engineering, little is known about engineering very generic, innovative and emerging requirements, such as those for cross-sectional information chains. The IKM health project aims at building information chain reference models for the care of patients with chronic wounds, cancer-related pain and back pain. Our question therefore was how to appropriately capture information and process requirements that are both generally applicable and practically useful. To this end, we started with recommendations from clinical guidelines and put them up for discussion in Delphi surveys and expert interviews. Despite the heterogeneity we encountered in all three methods, it was possible to obtain requirements suitable for building reference models. We evaluated three modelling languages and then chose to write the models in UML (class and activity diagrams). On the basis of the current project results, the pros and cons of our approach are discussed.

  16. Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tringali, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    This thesis focuses on developing a spreadsheet decision support model that can be used by combat engineer platoon and company commanders in determining the material requirements and estimated costs...

  17. Hybriding CMMI and requirement engineering maturity and capability models

    OpenAIRE

    Buglione, Luigi; Hauck, Jean Carlo R.; Gresse von Wangenheim, Christiane; Mc Caffery, Fergal

    2012-01-01

    peer-reviewed Estimation represents one of the most critical processes for any project and it is highly dependent on the quality of requirements elicitation and management. Therefore, the management of requirements should be prioritised in any process improvement program, because the less precise the requirements gathering, analysis and sizing, the greater the error in terms of time and cost estimation. Maturity and Capability Models (MCM) represent a good tool for assessing the status of ...

  18. Availability modeling approach for future circular colliders based on the LHC operation experience

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2096726; Apollonio, Andrea; Gutleber, Johannes; Sollander, Peter; Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Virtanen, Seppo Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Reaching the challenging integrated luminosity production goals of a future circular hadron collider (FCC-hh) and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) requires a thorough understanding of today’s most powerful high energy physics research infrastructure, the LHC accelerator complex at CERN. FCC-hh, a 4 times larger collider ring aims at delivering 10–20  ab$^-$$^1$ of integrated luminosity at 7 times higher collision energy. Since the identification of the key factors that impact availability and cost is far from obvious, a dedicated activity has been launched in the frame of the future circular collider study to develop models to study possible ways to optimize accelerator availability. This paper introduces the FCC reliability and availability study, which takes a fresh new look at assessing and modeling reliability and availability of particle accelerator infrastructures. The paper presents a probabilistic approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the machine operational cycle, schedule and availability for p...

  19. Ohio River navigation investment model: Requirements and model design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronzini, M.S.; Curlee, T.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Southworth, F.; Summers, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory is assisting the US Army Corps of Engineers in improving its economic analysis procedures for evaluation of inland waterway investment projects along the Ohio River System. This paper describes the context and design of an integrated approach to calculating the system-wide benefits from alternative combinations of lock and channel improvements, providing an ability to project the cost savings from proposed waterway improvements in capacity and reliability for up to fifty years into the future. The design contains an in-depth treatment of the levels of risk and uncertainty associated with different multi-year lock and channel improvement plans, including the uncertainty that results from a high degree of interaction between the many different waterway system components.

  20. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Francis Gomes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA. Qualitative analysis provides deeper understanding of the phenomenon through the layers of CLA; litany, social causes, worldview and myth. Findings: It is di cult to predict the far future for a technology oriented sector like healthcare. This paper presents three scenarios for short-, medium- and long-term future. Based on these scenarios we also present a set of business model elements for different future time frames. This paper shows a way to combine business models with CLA, a foresight methodology; in order to apply business models in futures business research. Besides offering early results for futures business research, this study proposes a conceptual space to work with individual business models for managerial stakeholders. Originality / Value: Much research on business models has offered conceptualization of the phenomenon, innovation through business model and transformation of business models. However, existing literature does not o er much on using business model as a futures research tool. Enabled by futures thinking, we collected key business model elements and building blocks for the futures market and ana- lyzed them through the CLA framework.

  1. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

  2. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    occurred over the past 20 years. The recovery of ANC was predicted to be incomplete. Even after the CLE scenario (for future acid deposition is implemented, the chemical conditions in about one-third of the lakes were predicted to be insufficient to support trout populations in the future. Thus, additional measures will be required if these lakes are to be restored. Keywords: acid deposition, lakes, model, Norway, recovery

  3. Solar model uncertainties, MSW analysis, and future solar neutrino experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hata, N.; Langacker, P.

    1994-01-01

    Various theoretical uncertainties in the standard solar model and in the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) analysis are discussed. It is shown that two methods give consistent estimations of the solar neutrino flux uncertainties: (a) a simple parametrization of the uncertainties using the core temperature and the ncuelar production cross sections; (b) the Monte Carlo method of Bahcall and Ulrich. In the MSW analysis, we emphasize proper treatments of correlations of theoretical uncertainties between flux components and between different detectors, the Earth effect, and multiple solutions in a combined χ 2 procedure. In particular the large-angle solution of the combined observation is allowed at 95% C.L. only when the theoretical uncertainties are included. If their correlations were ignored, the region would be overestimated. The MSW solutions for various standard and nonstandard solar models are also shown. The MSW predictions of the global solutions for the future solar neutrino experiments are given, emphasizing the measurement of the energy spectrum and the day-night effect in Sudbury Neutrino Observatory and Super-Kamiokande to distinguish the two solutions

  4. Views on the future of thermal hydraulic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishii, M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

    1997-07-01

    It is essential for the U.S. NRC to sustain the highest level of the thermal-hydraulics and reactor safety research expertise and continuously improve their accident analysis capability. Such expertise should span over four different areas which are strongly related to each other. These are: (1) Reactor Safety Code Development, (2) Two-phase Flow Modeling, (3) Instrumentation and Fundamental Experimental Research, and (4) Separate Effect and Integral Test. The NRC is already considering a new effort in the area of advanced thermal-hydraulics effort. Its success largely depends on the availability of a significantly improved two-phase flow formulation and constitutive relations supported by detailed experimental data. Therefore, it is recommended that the NRC start significant research efforts in the areas of two-phase flow modeling, instrumentation, basic and separate effect experiments which should be pursued systematically and with clearly defined objectives. It is desirable that some international program is developed in this area. This paper is concentrated on those items in the thermal-hydraulic area which eventually determine the quality of future accident analysis codes.

  5. 26 CFR 54.4980F-1 - Notice requirements for certain pension plan amendments significantly reducing the rate of future...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 17 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Notice requirements for certain pension plan amendments significantly reducing the rate of future benefit accrual. 54.4980F-1 Section 54.4980F-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS EXCISE TAXES (CONTINUED) PENSION EXCISE TAXES § 54.4980...

  6. Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

  7. Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As

  8. Using dynamic sustainment to determine the impact of varying levels of reliability on future combat systems maintenance requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Dozier, Pamela C.

    2006-01-01

    The primary purpose of this thesis is to provide analysis for future reliability studies. This thesis assesses the value of the Dynamic Sustainment simulation model as a logistics modeling tool and demonstrates data analysis techniques that can potentially be applied to model results. The secondary purpose is to explore the impact on the maintenance system of varying levels of platform reliability as part of an ongoing effort to provide the Office of the Secretary of Defense with credible...

  9. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Minimum Financial and... internal financial reporting process; (ii) Fiscal year-end annual consolidated and consolidating income... Person as part of its internal financial reporting process; and (iii) Upon receiving written notice from...

  10. Keeping an eye on reliability : The organizational requirements of future renewable energy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The reliable operation of energy infrastructures is more than just a technical matter. It is also dependent upon the organizational structure that enables and constrains entities in their management of operations. Yet this lesson seems forgotten in our planning of future renewable energy systems.

  11. MODELING CHRONIC TRAUMATIC ENCEPHALOPATHY: THE WAY FORWARD FOR FUTURE DISCOVERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan C. Turner

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the extensive media coverage associated with the diagnosis of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE, our fundamental understanding of the disease pathophysiology remains in its infancy. Only recently have scientific laboratories and personnel begun to explore CTE pathophysiology through the use of preclinical models of neurotrauma. Some studies have shown the ability to recapitulate some aspects of CTE in rodent models, through the use of various neuropathologic, biochemical, and/or behavioral assays. Many questions related to CTE development however remain unanswered. These include the role of impact severity, the time interval between impacts, the age at which impacts occur, and the total number of impacts sustained. Other important variables such as the location of impacts, character of impacts, and effect of environment/lifestyle and genetics also warrant further study. In this work we attempt to address some of these questions by exploring work previously completed using single and repetitive injury paradigms. Despite some models producing some deficits similar to CTE symptoms, it is clear that further studies are required to understand the development of neuropathological and neurobehavioral features consistent with CTE-like features in rodents. Specifically, acute and chronic studies are needed that characterize the development of tau-based pathology.

  12. Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

    OpenAIRE

    Audrius Rima; Olegas Vasilecas

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

  13. Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Rima

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

  14. Workshop on Functional Requirements for the Modeling of Fate and Transport of Waterborne CBRN Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giles, GE

    2005-02-03

    The purpose of this Workshop on ''Functional Requirements for the Modeling of Fate and Transport of Waterborne CBRN Materials'' was to solicit functional requirements for tools that help Incident Managers plan for and deal with the consequences of industrial or terrorist releases of materials into the nation's waterways and public water utilities. Twenty representatives attended and several made presentations. Several hours of discussions elicited a set of requirements. These requirements were summarized in a form for the attendees to vote on their highest priority requirements. These votes were used to determine the prioritized requirements that are reported in this paper and can be used to direct future developments.

  15. Testing evolutionary models of senescence: traditional approaches and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Chloe; Conneely, Karen N

    2014-12-01

    From an evolutionary perspective, the existence of senescence is a paradox. Why has senescence not been more effectively selected against given its associated decreases in Darwinian fitness? Why does senescence exist and how has it evolved? Three major theories offer explanations: (1) the theory of mutation accumulation suggested by PB Medawar; (2) the theory of antagonistic pleiotropy suggested by GC Williams; and (3) the disposable soma theory suggested by TBL Kirkwood. These three theories differ in the underlying causes of aging that they propose but are not mutually exclusive. This paper compares the specific biological predictions of each theory and discusses the methods and results of previous empirical tests. Lifespan is found to be the most frequently used estimate of senescence in evolutionary investigations. This measurement acts as a proxy for an individual's rate of senescence, but provides no information on an individual's senescent state or "biological age" throughout life. In the future, use of alternative longitudinal measures of senescence may facilitate investigation of previously neglected aspects of evolutionary models, such as intra- and inter-individual heterogeneity in the process of aging. DNA methylation data are newly proposed to measure biological aging and are suggested to be particularly useful for such investigations.

  16. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  17. Building a Narrative Based Requirements Engineering Mediation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Nan; Hall, Tracy; Barker, Trevor

    This paper presents a narrative-based Requirements Engineering (RE) mediation model to help RE practitioners to effectively identify, define, and resolve conflicts of interest, goals, and requirements. Within the SPI community, there is a common belief that social, human, and organizational issues significantly impact on the effectiveness of software process improvement in general and the requirements engineering process in particularl. Conflicts among different stakeholders are an important human and social issue that need more research attention in the SPI and RE community. By drawing on the conflict resolution literature and IS literature, we argue that conflict resolution in RE is a mediated process, in which a requirements engineer can act as a mediator among different stakeholders. To address socio-psychological aspects of conflict in RE and SPI, Winslade and Monk (2000)'s narrative mediation model is introduced, justified, and translated into the context of RE.

  18. In vivo models in breast cancer research: progress, challenges and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingunn Holen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Research using animal model systems has been instrumental in delivering improved therapies for breast cancer, as well as in generating new insights into the mechanisms that underpin development of the disease. A large number of different models are now available, reflecting different types and stages of the disease; choosing which one to use depends on the specific research question(s to be investigated. Based on presentations and discussions from leading experts who attended a recent workshop focused on in vivo models of breast cancer, this article provides a perspective on the many varied uses of these models in breast cancer research, their strengths, associated challenges and future directions. Among the questions discussed were: how well do models represent the different stages of human disease; how can we model the involvement of the human immune system and microenvironment in breast cancer; what are the appropriate models of metastatic disease; can we use models to carry out preclinical drug trials and identify pathways responsible for drug resistance; and what are the limitations of patient-derived xenograft models? We briefly outline the areas where the existing breast cancer models require improvement in light of the increased understanding of the disease process, reflecting the drive towards more personalised therapies and identification of mechanisms of drug resistance.

  19. Modelling Security Requirements Through Extending Scrum Agile Development Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Alotaibi, Minahi

    2016-01-01

    Security is today considered as a basic foundation in software development and therefore, the modelling and implementation of security requirements is an essential part of the production of secure software systems. Information technology organisations are moving towards agile development methods in order to satisfy customers' changing requirements in light of accelerated evolution and time restrictions with their competitors in software production. Security engineering is considered difficult...

  20. AMTD: Update of Engineering Specifications Derived from Science Requirements for Future UVOIR Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Postman, Marc; Mosier, Gary; Smith, W. Scott; Blaurock, Carl; Ha, Kong; Stark, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope

  1. AMTD: update of engineering specifications derived from science requirements for future UVOIR space telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Postman, Marc; Mosier, Gary; Smith, W. Scott; Blaurock, Carl; Ha, Kong; Stark, Christopher C.

    2014-08-01

    The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope.

  2. DoD Related Software Technology Requirements, Practices, and Prospects for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-06-01

    Batz, P. M. Cohen, S. T. Redwine and J. R. Rice . "The application-specific task area".* IEEE COMputer. 16:11, November 1983, pp. 78-85. 42. B. Boehm...Strategy Division 1E965 Pentagon Washington, D.C. 20310 Col. J.S.V. Edgar 695-5630 D-2 APPRUDIX 2 Analysis of Airland Battle 2000 for Future Software...one might note that Dijkstra has been an employee of Burroughs since 1973 although still based in the Netherlands.) The year 1972 also marked the

  3. Requirements to be made on future information systems in NPP operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.; Distler, K.

    1987-01-01

    The objective of advanced operational information systems (OIS) is to support and alleviate the operator's work. Human skills and performance limits on the one hand, and the tasks of the operators during various operating states on the other hand are the bases for deriving system design requirements. The paper discusses such aspects like the dynamism of process events, the passive/active role played by the operators in normal/disturbed operation, the compatibility of information representation between OIS and conventional display configuration, parallel versus serial information presentation, team work of operators, parallel processing of tasks within the team; the resulting requirements are derived. (orig./DG) [de

  4. [Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

    2015-09-01

    Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

  5. Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation

  6. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  7. THE MODEL OF FORMATION OF RESEARCH COMPETENCE OF FUTURE SOFTWARE ENGINEERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Osipova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the practical experience, theoretical and methodological backgrounds toformation of research competence of future software engineers. Also in this article we defined the content, structure, criteria and indicators of research competence of future software engineers and characterized levels of the formedness of research competence of futuresoftware engineers and explained main phases of its formation. In consideration of the specificity of formation of research competence of software engineers, job market requirements and social order much attention in article is paid to student participation in research projects of the Chair, particularly in international projects and projects commissioned by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. The important factor of effective formation of research competence of future software engineers is student's work on chair of scientific schools, their training in IT companies and IT departments of higher education institutions and other educational establishments, including abroad. Also we pay attention to the need of group work of participants of the educational process that can beprovided with their participation in scientific problem groups, scientific schools, work on joint research projects. The conducted research confirms the effectiveness of implementation of the proposed model offormation of research competence of future software engineers.

  8. Requirements with rationale and quantitative rules for EMC on future ships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leersum, B.J.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    To ensure the performance on equipment and subsystem level in a naval environment, the conventional approach has been to strictly require national and international military standards on equipment and installations. This approach made Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) a cost driver in naval

  9. NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Philosophy and Requirements Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blattnig, Steve R.; Luckring, James M.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Sylvester, Andre J.; Tripathi, Ram K.; Zang, Thomas A.

    2013-01-01

    Following the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, the NASA Administrator chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify those CAIB report elements with NASA-wide applicability and to develop corrective measures to address each element. One such measure was the development of a standard for the development, documentation, and operation of models and simulations. This report describes the philosophy and requirements overview of the resulting NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.

  10. Critical Business Requirements Model and Metrics for Intranet ROI

    OpenAIRE

    Luqi; Jacoby, Grant A.

    2005-01-01

    Journal of Electronic Commerce Research, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-30. This research provides the first theoretical model, the Intranet Efficiency and Effectiveness Model (IEEM), to measure intranet overall value contributions based on a corporation’s critical business requirements by applying a balanced baseline of metrics and conversion ratios linked to key business processes of knowledge workers, IT managers and business decision makers -- in effect, closing the gap of understanding...

  11. Confronting dark energy models mimicking ΛCDM epoch with observational constraints: Future cosmological perturbations decay or future Rip?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astashenok, Artyom V.; Odintsov, Sergei D.

    2013-01-01

    We confront dark energy models which are currently similar to ΛCDM theory with observational data which include the SNe data, matter density perturbations and baryon acoustic oscillations data. DE cosmology under consideration may evolve to Big Rip, type II or type III future singularity, or to Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. It is shown that matter perturbations data define more precisely the possible deviation from ΛCDM model than consideration of SNe data only. The combined data analysis proves that DE models under consideration are as consistent as ΛCDM model. We demonstrate that growth of matter density perturbations may occur at sufficiently small background density but still before the possible disintegration of bound objects (like clusters of galaxies, galaxies, etc.) in Big Rip, type III singularity, Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. This new effect may bring the future universe to chaotic state well before disintegration or Rip.

  12. Confronting dark energy models mimicking {Lambda}CDM epoch with observational constraints: Future cosmological perturbations decay or future Rip?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astashenok, Artyom V., E-mail: artyom.art@gmail.com [Baltic Federal University of I. Kant, Department of Theoretical Physics, 236041, 14, Nevsky st., Kaliningrad (Russian Federation); Odintsov, Sergei D. [Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Institut de Ciencies de l' Espai (CSIC-IEEC), Campus UAB, Torre C5-Par-2a pl, E-08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Eurasian International Center for Theor. Physics, Eurasian National University, Astana 010008 (Kazakhstan); Tomsk State Pedagogical University, Tomsk (Russian Federation)

    2013-01-29

    We confront dark energy models which are currently similar to {Lambda}CDM theory with observational data which include the SNe data, matter density perturbations and baryon acoustic oscillations data. DE cosmology under consideration may evolve to Big Rip, type II or type III future singularity, or to Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. It is shown that matter perturbations data define more precisely the possible deviation from {Lambda}CDM model than consideration of SNe data only. The combined data analysis proves that DE models under consideration are as consistent as {Lambda}CDM model. We demonstrate that growth of matter density perturbations may occur at sufficiently small background density but still before the possible disintegration of bound objects (like clusters of galaxies, galaxies, etc.) in Big Rip, type III singularity, Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. This new effect may bring the future universe to chaotic state well before disintegration or Rip.

  13. A Use Case Methodology to Handle Conflicting Controller Requirements for Future Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Uslar, Mathias; Tornelli, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    is to describe a process starting from a tailored IEC 62559 template amended for recording controller conflicts and adapting the underlying use case management repository for collaborative work. Conflict identification is supported by Multilevel Flow Modeling providing abstracted conflict patterns....

  14. Software to support planning for future waste treatment, storage, transport, and disposal requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holter, G.M.; Shay, M.R.; Stiles, D.L.

    1990-04-01

    Planning for adequate and appropriate treatment, storage, transport and disposal of wastes to be generated or received in the future is a complex but critical task that can be significantly enhanced by the development and use of appropriate software. This paper describes a software system that has been developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory to aid in such planning. The basic needs for such a system are outlined, and the approach adopted in developing the software is described. The individual components of the system, and their integration into a unified system, are discussed. Typical analytical applications of this type of software are summarized. Conclusions concerning the development of such software systems and the necessary supporting data are then presented. 2 figs

  15. Fusing Quantitative Requirements Analysis with Model-based Systems Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Heron, Vance A.; Jenkins, J. Steven

    2006-01-01

    A vision is presented for fusing quantitative requirements analysis with model-based systems engineering. This vision draws upon and combines emergent themes in the engineering milieu. "Requirements engineering" provides means to explicitly represent requirements (both functional and non-functional) as constraints and preferences on acceptable solutions, and emphasizes early-lifecycle review, analysis and verification of design and development plans. "Design by shopping" emphasizes revealing the space of options available from which to choose (without presuming that all selection criteria have previously been elicited), and provides means to make understandable the range of choices and their ramifications. "Model-based engineering" emphasizes the goal of utilizing a formal representation of all aspects of system design, from development through operations, and provides powerful tool suites that support the practical application of these principles. A first step prototype towards this vision is described, embodying the key capabilities. Illustrations, implications, further challenges and opportunities are outlined.

  16. Fractured rock modeling in the National Waste Terminal Storage Program: a review of requirements and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St. John, C.; Krug, A.; Key, S.; Monsees, J.

    1983-05-01

    Generalized computer codes capable of forming the basis for numerical models of fractured rock masses are being used within the NWTS program. Little additional development of these codes is considered justifiable, except in the area of representation of discrete fractures. On the other hand, model preparation requires definition of medium-specific constitutive descriptions and site characteristics and is therefore legitimately conducted by each of the media-oriented projects within the National Waste Terminal Storage program. However, it is essential that a uniform approach to the role of numerical modeling be adopted, including agreement upon the contribution of modeling to the design and licensing process and the need for, and means of, model qualification for particular purposes. This report discusses the role of numerical modeling, reviews the capabilities of several computer codes that are being used to support design or performance assessment, and proposes a framework for future numerical modeling activities within the NWTS program.

  17. Fractured rock modeling in the National Waste Terminal Storage Program: a review of requirements and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    St John, C.; Krug, A.; Key, S.; Monsees, J.

    1983-05-01

    Generalized computer codes capable of forming the basis for numerical models of fractured rock masses are being used within the NWTS program. Little additional development of these codes is considered justifiable, except in the area of representation of discrete fractures. On the other hand, model preparation requires definition of medium-specific constitutive descriptions and site characteristics and is therefore legitimately conducted by each of the media-oriented projects within the National Waste Terminal Storage program. However, it is essential that a uniform approach to the role of numerical modeling be adopted, including agreement upon the contribution of modeling to the design and licensing process and the need for, and means of, model qualification for particular purposes. This report discusses the role of numerical modeling, reviews the capabilities of several computer codes that are being used to support design or performance assessment, and proposes a framework for future numerical modeling activities within the NWTS program

  18. Models of protein and amino acid requirements for cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Orlindo Tedeschi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Protein supply and requirements by ruminants have been studied for more than a century. These studies led to the accumulation of lots of scientific information about digestion and metabolism of protein by ruminants as well as the characterization of the dietary protein in order to maximize animal performance. During the 1980s and 1990s, when computers became more accessible and powerful, scientists began to conceptualize and develop mathematical nutrition models, and to program them into computers to assist with ration balancing and formulation for domesticated ruminants, specifically dairy and beef cattle. The most commonly known nutrition models developed during this period were the National Research Council (NRC in the United States, Agricultural Research Council (ARC in the United Kingdom, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA in France, and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO in Australia. Others were derivative works from these models with different degrees of modifications in the supply or requirement calculations, and the modeling nature (e.g., static or dynamic, mechanistic, or deterministic. Circa 1990s, most models adopted the metabolizable protein (MP system over the crude protein (CP and digestible CP systems to estimate supply of MP and the factorial system to calculate MP required by the animal. The MP system included two portions of protein (i.e., the rumen-undegraded dietary CP - RUP - and the contributions of microbial CP - MCP as the main sources of MP for the animal. Some models would explicitly account for the impact of dry matter intake (DMI on the MP required for maintenance (MPm; e.g., Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System - CNCPS, the Dutch system - DVE/OEB, while others would simply account for scurf, urinary, metabolic fecal, and endogenous contributions independently of DMI. All models included milk yield and its components in estimating MP required for lactation

  19. Tissue Engineering of Blood Vessels: Functional Requirements, Progress, and Future Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek A; Brewster, Luke P; Caves, Jeffrey M; Chaikof, Elliot L

    2011-09-01

    Vascular disease results in the decreased utility and decreased availability of autologus vascular tissue for small diameter (engineered replacement vessels represent an ideal solution to this clinical problem. Ongoing progress requires combined approaches from biomaterials science, cell biology, and translational medicine to develop feasible solutions with the requisite mechanical support, a non-fouling surface for blood flow, and tissue regeneration. Over the past two decades interest in blood vessel tissue engineering has soared on a global scale, resulting in the first clinical implants of multiple technologies, steady progress with several other systems, and critical lessons-learned. This review will highlight the current inadequacies of autologus and synthetic grafts, the engineering requirements for implantation of tissue-engineered grafts, and the current status of tissue-engineered blood vessel research.

  20. CANDU 9 - the CANDU product to meet customer and regulator requirements now and in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snell, V.G.; Webb, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    CANDU reactors developed under Canadian licensing regulations that placed the primary responsibility for safety on the licensee. The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB), Canada's nuclear regulatory agency, state in their regulations what is expected in terms of safety performance so that designers are free to propose the best means of meeting this performance. This goal-oriented approach, besides encouraging innovation, allowed CANDU to be licensed in other jurisdictions. The latest design - the large, single unit, CANDU 9 - explicitly incorporates licensability in Canada through a formal AECB review of the design; lessons learned from licensing CANDU 6 in Asian countries, particularly with Wolsong 2, 3 and 4 in Korea, and more recently with Qinshan in China; utility requirements for modem evolutionary plants; and emerging international standards for safety, sponsored or issued by the IAEA. By combining the assurance of acceptability in Canada with compliance with foreign and international requirements, CANDU 9 becomes an internationally licensable product. (author)

  1. Probe And Drogue Aerial Refueling Requirements: How Will Air Force Special Operations Command Meet Future Demands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Global Strike Task Force,” ( GSTF ) which will be explained in greater detail shortly. Added to this requirement is the need to increase the...21 Global Strike Task Force Global Strike Task Force ( GSTF ) is the concept, initiated by General John R. Jumper, Air Force Chief of Staff...the way we fight. GSTF is the Chief’s concept to deal with the difficulties presented by regional threats, asymmetric challenges, and wild card

  2. Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Odense Steel Shipyard SENER Ingenieria y Sistemas Peter Marks and Kathleen Riles, Authors of Aligning Technology Torben Andersen, Executive Vice...Sener Ingenieria y Sistemas - FORAN 3 • Intergraph-ISDP ● Black and Veatch - POWRTRAK. The information gleaned from these visits was immense. Perhaps...Yard-w- de access to on-line schedules - Real time visual display of labor hour requirements by area and trade as block Iaydowns are manipulated to

  3. Radionuclide Transport Modelling: Current Status and Future Needs. Synthesis, Work Group Reports and Extended Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    The workshop identified a set of critical issues for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority (SSI) to address in preparing for future reviews of license applications, which have subsequently been considered in preparing this synthesis. Structure for organising expert participation: A structure for organising expert participation in future reviews is proposed based on clearinghouses for (1) regulatory application and context, (2) engineered barrier systems, (3) geosphere, (4) biosphere, and (5) performance assessment integration and calculations. As part of their work, these clearinghouses could identify key issues that need to be resolved prior to future reviews. Performance assessment strategy and review context: Future reviews will be conducted in the context of regulations based on risk criteria; this leads to a need to review the methods used in probabilistic risk assessment, as well as the underlying process models. A plan is needed for accomplishing both aims. Despite the probabilistic framework, a need is anticipated for targeted, deterministic calculations to check particular assumptions. Priorities and ambition level for reviews: SKI's and SSI's resources can be more efficiently utilised by an early review of SKB's safety case, so that if necessary the authorities can make an early start on evaluating topics that are of primary significance to the safety case. As a guide to planning for allocation of effort in future reviews, this workshop produced a preliminary ranking of technical issues, on a scale from 'non-controversial' to 'requiring independent modelling,' Analysis of repository system and scenarios: Systems analysis tools including features/events/processes encyclopaedias, process-influence diagrams, and assessment-model flowcharts should be used as review tools, to check the processes and influences considered in SKB's analyses, and to evaluate the comprehensiveness of the scenarios that are

  4. Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

  5. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Availability modeling approach for future circular colliders based on the LHC operation experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arto Niemi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Reaching the challenging integrated luminosity production goals of a future circular hadron collider (FCC-hh and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC requires a thorough understanding of today’s most powerful high energy physics research infrastructure, the LHC accelerator complex at CERN. FCC-hh, a 4 times larger collider ring aims at delivering 10–20  ab^{-1} of integrated luminosity at 7 times higher collision energy. Since the identification of the key factors that impact availability and cost is far from obvious, a dedicated activity has been launched in the frame of the future circular collider study to develop models to study possible ways to optimize accelerator availability. This paper introduces the FCC reliability and availability study, which takes a fresh new look at assessing and modeling reliability and availability of particle accelerator infrastructures. The paper presents a probabilistic approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the machine operational cycle, schedule and availability for physics. The approach is based on best-practice, industrially applied reliability analysis methods. It relies on failure rate and repair time distributions to calculate impacts on availability. The main source of information for the study is coming from CERN accelerator operation and maintenance data. Recent improvements in LHC failure tracking help improving the accuracy of modeling of LHC performance. The model accuracy and prediction capabilities are discussed by comparing obtained results with past LHC operational data.

  7. Availability modeling approach for future circular colliders based on the LHC operation experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Arto; Apollonio, Andrea; Gutleber, Johannes; Sollander, Peter; Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Virtanen, Seppo

    2016-12-01

    Reaching the challenging integrated luminosity production goals of a future circular hadron collider (FCC-hh) and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) requires a thorough understanding of today's most powerful high energy physics research infrastructure, the LHC accelerator complex at CERN. FCC-hh, a 4 times larger collider ring aims at delivering 10 - 20 ab-1 of integrated luminosity at 7 times higher collision energy. Since the identification of the key factors that impact availability and cost is far from obvious, a dedicated activity has been launched in the frame of the future circular collider study to develop models to study possible ways to optimize accelerator availability. This paper introduces the FCC reliability and availability study, which takes a fresh new look at assessing and modeling reliability and availability of particle accelerator infrastructures. The paper presents a probabilistic approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the machine operational cycle, schedule and availability for physics. The approach is based on best-practice, industrially applied reliability analysis methods. It relies on failure rate and repair time distributions to calculate impacts on availability. The main source of information for the study is coming from CERN accelerator operation and maintenance data. Recent improvements in LHC failure tracking help improving the accuracy of modeling of LHC performance. The model accuracy and prediction capabilities are discussed by comparing obtained results with past LHC operational data.

  8. Firefighter safety for PV systems: Overview of future requirements and protection systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spataru, Sergiu; Sera, Dezso; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    for operators during maintenance or fire-fighting. One of the solutions is individual module shutdown by short-circuiting or disconnecting each PV module from the PV string. However, currently no standards have been adopted either for implementing or testing these methods, or doing an evaluation of the module...... shutdown procedures. This paper gives an overview on the most recent fire - and firefighter safety requirements for PV systems, with focus on system and module shutdown systems. Several solutions are presented, analyzed and compared by considering a number of essential characteristics, including...... their transient behavior, components' voltage stress and conduction losses....

  9. Atmospheric disturbance modelling requirements for flying qualities applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhouse, D. J.

    1978-01-01

    Flying qualities are defined as those airplane characteristics which govern the ease or precision with which the pilot can accomplish the mission. Some atmospheric disturbance modelling requirements for aircraft flying qualities applications are reviewed. It is concluded that some simplifications are justified in identifying the primary influence on aircraft response and pilot control. It is recommended that a universal environmental model be developed, which could form the reference for different applications. This model should include the latest information on winds, turbulence, gusts, visibility, icing and precipitation. A chosen model would be kept by a national agency and updated regularly by feedback from users. A user manual is believed to be an essential part of such a model.

  10. 17 CFR 1.17 - Minimum financial requirements for futures commission merchants and introducing brokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of changes to election. (A) No election to use the alternative market risk and credit risk deductions... will use to calculate its deductions for market risk and credit risk, and also, if calculated... market risk and credit risk deductions, and an overview of the integration of the models into the...

  11. Advancing vector biology research: a community survey for future directions, research applications and infrastructure requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Alain; Pondeville, Emilie; Schnettler, Esther; Crisanti, Andrea; Supparo, Clelia; Christophides, George K; Kersey, Paul J; Maslen, Gareth L; Takken, Willem; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M; Oliva, Clelia F; Busquets, Núria; Abad, F Xavier; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Levashina, Elena A; Wilson, Anthony J; Veronesi, Eva; Pichard, Maëlle; Arnaud Marsh, Sarah; Simard, Frédéric; Vernick, Kenneth D

    2016-01-01

    Vector-borne pathogens impact public health, animal production, and animal welfare. Research on arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and midges which transmit pathogens to humans and economically important animals is crucial for development of new control measures that target transmission by the vector. While insecticides are an important part of this arsenal, appearance of resistance mechanisms is increasingly common. Novel tools for genetic manipulation of vectors, use of Wolbachia endosymbiotic bacteria, and other biological control mechanisms to prevent pathogen transmission have led to promising new intervention strategies, adding to strong interest in vector biology and genetics as well as vector-pathogen interactions. Vector research is therefore at a crucial juncture, and strategic decisions on future research directions and research infrastructure investment should be informed by the research community. A survey initiated by the European Horizon 2020 INFRAVEC-2 consortium set out to canvass priorities in the vector biology research community and to determine key activities that are needed for researchers to efficiently study vectors, vector-pathogen interactions, as well as access the structures and services that allow such activities to be carried out. We summarize the most important findings of the survey which in particular reflect the priorities of researchers in European countries, and which will be of use to stakeholders that include researchers, government, and research organizations.

  12. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    pattern, giving one or more new cycles. To model an event made up of several cycles extending into the future calls for an estimate of the ultimate value, which corresponds with the area under the curve up to the end of the event. For oil, the best tool to determine an ultimate value is the creaming curve that plots cumulative discovery versus the cumulative number of new field wildcats, the result being modelled by one or more hyperbolas. Another method is to plot the ratio of annual to cumulative production versus cumulative production, and extrapolate the trend to zero. When the trend is linear, it represents the derivative of the logistic curve. The fractal distribution of sizes (field reserves, incomes, urban agglomerations plotted against decreasing rank) can also be extrapolated to an ultimate value. Population can be well modelled with two cycles, distinguishing countries with high and low fertility rates. Previous UN forecasts were too high for different reasons. Economic parameters, such as unemployment or inflation, can be correlated with oil price after a certain time-shift. Income distribution is well described by a fractal plot of population versus income. The income fractal distribution in France is in fact the same as that in the United States, although the total of the latter is higher because of a larger population. Many graphs are shown for each domain using the same tools. The goal is that the reader may be able to draw his own conclusions, and make his own forecast. Ironically, it appears that the modelling is more reliable than the input data. Accordingly, the main challenge is to secure better data, but that will be achieved only if and when political influences can be removed. A neutral agency is needed, but neither the UN nor national agencies are neutral. It is hard to see how to force the actors to tell the truth, or know who would run and finance such an organisation. A step in the right direction would be to make official organisations liable

  13. Information Models, Data Requirements, and Agile Data Curation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, John S.; Crichton, Dan; Ritschel, Bernd; Hardman, Sean; Joyner, Ron

    2015-04-01

    The Planetary Data System's next generation system, PDS4, is an example of the successful use of an ontology-based Information Model (IM) to drive the development and operations of a data system. In traditional systems engineering, requirements or statements about what is necessary for the system are collected and analyzed for input into the design stage of systems development. With the advent of big data the requirements associated with data have begun to dominate and an ontology-based information model can be used to provide a formalized and rigorous set of data requirements. These requirements address not only the usual issues of data quantity, quality, and disposition but also data representation, integrity, provenance, context, and semantics. In addition the use of these data requirements during system's development has many characteristics of Agile Curation as proposed by Young et al. [Taking Another Look at the Data Management Life Cycle: Deconstruction, Agile, and Community, AGU 2014], namely adaptive planning, evolutionary development, early delivery, continuous improvement, and rapid and flexible response to change. For example customers can be satisfied through early and continuous delivery of system software and services that are configured directly from the information model. This presentation will describe the PDS4 architecture and its three principle parts: the ontology-based Information Model (IM), the federated registries and repositories, and the REST-based service layer for search, retrieval, and distribution. The development of the IM will be highlighted with special emphasis on knowledge acquisition, the impact of the IM on development and operations, and the use of shared ontologies at multiple governance levels to promote system interoperability and data correlation.

  14. Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

    2011-01-01

    In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

  15. STRUCTURAL AND FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF FORMING FUTURE MUSIC TEACHER’S CREATIVE THINKING IN INSTRUMENTAL AND PERFORMING TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadiia Lavrentieva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article conceptual bases of forming students’ creative thinking in the instrumental and performing activities are revealed, taking current training trends into account. The contradictions between the requirements of society to create favorable conditions to realize future music teachers’ creative potential and current directions of a higher educational establishment to ‘a result”, which causes a specific system of promotion and support students’ value orientations and encourages students to master existing knowledge, algorithms, and performing models, depict the relevant problems of making out the system of the future music teachers’ instrumental and performing training that is aimed at developing their creative thinking. It is noted that while defining such phenomena as creative thinking and cognitive work a great number of scientists emphasizes on the word “create” which means finding and creating something that hasn’t been found in the previous individual or social experience. The aim of the article is to disclose the content and stages of implementing structural and functional model of forming future music teachers’ creative thinking The model is formed as an alternative to information and reproductive approach to training future specialists. The concept model is based on the target of forming future music teachers’ creative and methodological thinking, professional competence, activity and approaches to the students’ training to complete fulfillment of modern needs of professional and music education. The author specifies criteria of structural model of future music teachers’ creative thinking. They are value and motivational, cognitive and educational, action and technological, creative and modulating ones The effectiveness of the future music teachers’ creative thinking in instrumental and performing training depends on the level of forming clear science-based system that has a certain conceptual

  16. Building Futurism into the Institution's Strategic Planning and Human Resource Development Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groff, Warren H.

    A process for building futurism into the institution's strategic planning and human resource development model is described. It is an attempt to assist faculty and staff to understand the future and the formulation and revision of professional goals in relation to an image of the future. A conceptual framework about the changing nature of human…

  17. Multi-Stage ADRs for Current and Future Astronomy Missions: Performance and Requirements for Cryogen-Free Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirron, Peter; Kimball, Mark; Vlahacos, Kosta

    2010-01-01

    The cooling requirements for current (e.g. Astro-H) and future (e.g. IXO and ASP) astronomy missions pose significant challenges for the sub-Kelvin Cooler. In particular, the use of large detector arrays increases the cooling power needed, and the variety of cryocoolers that can be used for pre-cooling greatly expands the range of temperatures at which the sub-Kelvin cooler can be designed to reject heat. In most cases, there is also a need for a stable higher temperature stage for cooling amplifiers or telescope components. NASA/GSFC is currently building a 3-stage ADR for the Astro-H mission, and is developing a 5-stage ADR suitable for IXO and ASP, as well as many other missions in the early planning stages. The architecture of these ADRs allows them to be adapted rather easily for different cooling requirements and to accommodate different cryocooler capabilities (operating temperature and cooling power). This paper will discuss the performance of these ADRs, which operate in both continuous, and single-shot cooling modes, and the minimum cryocooler capabilities needed to meet the requirements of future missions.

  18. Balancing functional and nutritional quality of oils and fats: Current requirements and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Bremt Karen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Oils and fats play an important role in the structure, aroma and stability of a wide variety of food products, as well as in their nutritional properties. For Puratos, a producer of ingredients for bakery, patisserie and chocolate sector, functionality and taste are of utmost importance, but the company also wants to contribute to the balanced diet of consumers. Vegetable oils and fats are used in margarines and releasing agents, vegetable creams, compound chocolate, fillings and emulsifiers. Each application requires an oil or fat with specific physicochemical properties in order to ensure the optimal structure, stability and taste of the end product. Traditionally, (partially hydrogenated vegetable oils deliver important functional characteristics concerning crystallization behaviour, directly linked with the workability, melting properties, stability and mouth feel of the food product. However, due to negative nutritional implications, trans fats are to be replaced by healthier alternatives, preferably not by saturated fats. Consumers – and in some regions, legal instances – demand transfree or hydro-free products while not compromising on taste. Alternative fats and oils will be discussed concerning their functional and nutritional properties.

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    . Transformation from a conventional fossil-fueled energy system to a 100% renewable energy system is not an easy task, however, it is a necessary goal to be attained. Academic and governmental bodies in Denmark have released several projects on future scenarios free from fossil fuel by year 2050. Three existing...... energy scenarios commonly conclude that a 100% renewable energy system in 2050 is feasible both technologically and economically. The three scenarios assume similar technology options, but different rates of usage. For example, the IDA 2050 scenario establishes an energy system dependent on more biomass...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  20. Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcastro, Christine M.

    2011-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

  1. Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

  2. On meeting capital requirements with a chance-constrained optimization model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yu, Bo; Gu, Lanlan

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with a capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model in the presence of loans, treasury bill, fixed assets and non-interest earning assets. To model the dynamics of loans, we introduce a modified CreditMetrics approach. This leads to development of a deterministic convex counterpart of capital to risk asset ratio chance constraint. We pursue the scope of analyzing our model under the worst-case scenario i.e. loan default. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying numerical procedures, in order to administer valuable insights from a financial outlook. Our results suggest that, our capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model guarantees banks of meeting capital requirements of Basel III with a likelihood of 95 % irrespective of changes in future market value of assets.

  3. An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

  4. Formal Requirements Modeling for Reactive Systems with Coloured Petri Nets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tjell, Simon

    . This is important because it represents the identi cation of what is being designed (the reactive system), and what is given and being made assumptions about (the environment). The representation of the environment is further partitioned to distinguish human actors from non-human actors. This allows the modeler...... to addressing the problem of validating formal requirements models through interactive graphical animations is presented. Executable Use Cases (EUCs) provide a framework for integrating three tiers of descriptions of specifications and environment assumptions: the lower tier is an informal description...... to distinguish the modeling artifacts describing the environment from those describing the specifications for a reactive system. The formalization allows for clear identi cation of interfaces between interacting domains, where the interaction takes place through an abstraction of possibly parameterized states...

  5. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  6. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  7. A Review of Decision Support Models for Global Distribution Network Design and Future Model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reich, Juri; Kinra, Aseem; Kotzab, Herbert

    We look at the global distribution network design problem and the requirements to solve it. This problem typically involves conflicting goals and a magnitude of interdependent input factors, described by qualitative and quantitative information. Our literature review shows that current models do...

  8. Models for residential- and commercial-sector energy-conservation analysis: applications, limitations, and future potential. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Henry E.; Fullen, Robert E.

    1980-09-01

    This report reviews four of the major models used by the Department of Energy (DOE) for energy conservation analyses in the residential- and commercial-building sectors. The objective is to provide a critical analysis of how these models can serve as tools for DOE and its Conservation Policy Office in evaluating and quantifying their policy and program requirements. For this, the study brings together information on the models' analytical structure and their strengths and limitations in policy applications these are then employed to assess the most-effective role for each model in addressing future issues of buildings energy-conservation policy and analysis. The four models covered are: Oak Ridge Residential Energy Model; Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households/Comprehensive Human Resources Data System (MATH/CHRDS) Model; Oak Ridge Commercial Energy Model; and Brookhaven Buildings Energy Conservation Optimization Model (BECOM).

  9. A model for the future. Certified nurse-midwives replace residents and house staff in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ament, L A; Hanson, L

    1998-01-01

    In one model of the future, certified nurse-midwives (CNMs) replace most obstetric residents and house staff in hospitals. This model offers numerous benefits, such as cost containment and quality outcomes. Furthermore, its application could open opportunities for educating CNMs and residents in a truly collaborative model in an educational setting and begin to balance the ratio of physicians to CNMs in the care of low-risk populations. This model was used with some success in the late 1980s to early 1990s at an inner-city Midwestern medical center. By definition, CNMs are educated in the two disciplines of nursing and midwifery and possess evidence of certification according to the requirements of the American College of Nurse Midwives (ACNM, 1978). Nurse-midwifery practice is the independent management of care of normal newborns and women, antepartally, intrapartally, postpartally, and/or gynecologically. Certified Nurse Midwifery practice occurs within a health care system that provides for medical consultation, collaborative management, and referral (ACNM, 1978). Physician and CNM roles differ. Certified nurse-midwives focus on supporting the process of normal birth, whereas physicians focus more on the management of complications. There are data that suggest that CNM outcomes are equivalent to those of physicians (American Nurses Association, 1992; Thompson, 1986; Wilson, 1989); that CNM costs are less than those of physicians (Bell & Mills, 1989; Cherry & Foster, 1982; Gravely & Littlefield, 1992; Rooks, 1986); and that the cost of educating CNMs is much less than the cost of educating physicians (Safriet, 1992). Within an environment of health care reform and cost containment, CNMs can replace residents and house staff in hospitals in the care of low-risk clients and work in consultation with physicians for the care of high-risk clients. This article compares medical education and nurse-midwifery education, reviews nurse-midwifery outcome data, and discusses

  10. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  11. Modelling of radionuclide transport in forests: Review and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Schell, W.; Linkov, I.

    1997-01-01

    Ecological modeling is a powerful tool which can be used to synthesize information on the dynamic processes which occur in ecosystems. Models of radionuclide transport in forests were first constructed in the mid-1960's, when the consequences of global fallout from nuclear weapons tests and waste disposal in the environment were of great concern. Such models were developed based on site-specific experimental data and were designed to address local needs. These models had a limited applicability in evaluating distinct ecosystems and deposition scenarios. Given the scarcity of information, the same experimental data sets were often used both for model calibration and validation, an approach which clearly constitutes a methodological error. Even though the carry modeling attempts were far from being faultless, they established a useful conceptual approach in that they tried to capture general processes in ecosystems and thus had a holistic nature. Later, radioecological modeling attempted to reveal ecosystem properties by separating the component parts from the whole system, as an approach to simplification. This method worked well for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems, in which the biogeochemistry of radionuclide cycling is relatively well understood and can be influenced by fertilization. Several models have been successfully developed and applied to human dose evaluation and emergency response to contaminating events in agricultural lands

  12. Towards modeling future energy infrastructures - the ELECTRA system engineering approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uslar, Mathias; Heussen, Kai

    2016-01-01

    of the IEC 62559 use case template as well as needed changes to cope particularly with the aspects of controller conflicts and Greenfield technology modeling. From the original envisioned use of the standards, we show a possible transfer on how to properly deal with a Greenfield approach when modeling....

  13. Dynamic Pathloss Model for Future Mobile Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumar, Ambuj; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Prasad, Ramjee

    2016-01-01

    planning depends on how congruent the chosen path loss model and real propagation are. Various path loss models have been developed that predict the signal propagation in various morphological and climatic environments; however they consider only those physical parameters of the network environment...

  14. Studying cancer metastasis : Existing models, challenges and future perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Marion, Denise M. S.; Domanska, Urszula M.; Timmer-Bosscha, Hetty; Walenkamp, Annemiek M. E.

    Cancer metastasis causes most cancer-related deaths. Several model systems to study the complex and multi step process of metastasis exist, including in vitro systems, ex-vivo organ slices, Drosophila Melanogaster and zebrafish models and the use of the chorio allantoic membrane (CAM) of fertilized

  15. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Demerouti (Eva); A.B. Bakke (Arnold B.)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working

  16. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  17. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  18. The Future Role of Information Technology in Erosion Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natural resources management and decision-making is a complex process requiring cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders balancing biophysical and socio-economic concerns. Predicting soil erosion is common practice in natural resource management for assessing the e...

  19. Experimental development based on mapping rule between requirements analysis model and web framework specific design model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okuda, Hirotaka; Ogata, Shinpei; Matsuura, Saeko

    2013-12-01

    Model Driven Development is a promising approach to develop high quality software systems. We have proposed a method of model-driven requirements analysis using Unified Modeling Language (UML). The main feature of our method is to automatically generate a Web user interface prototype from UML requirements analysis model so that we can confirm validity of input/output data for each page and page transition on the system by directly operating the prototype. We proposes a mapping rule in which design information independent of each web application framework implementation is defined based on the requirements analysis model, so as to improve the traceability to the final product from the valid requirements analysis model. This paper discusses the result of applying our method to the development of a Group Work Support System that is currently running in our department.

  20. Structured Multi-level Data Fusion and Modelling of Heterogeneous Environmental Data for Future Internet Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeur, Zoheir; Chakravarthy, Ajay; Bashevoy, Maxim; Modafferi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    The rapid increase in environmental observations which are conducted by Small to Medium Enterprise communities and volunteers using affordable in situ sensors at various scales, in addition to the more established observatories set up by environmental and space agencies using airborne and space-borne sensing technologies is generating serious amounts of BIG data at ever increasing speeds. Furthermore, the emergence of Future Internet technologies and the urgent requirements for the deployment of specific enablers for the delivery of processed environmental knowledge in real-time with advanced situation awareness to citizens has reached paramount importance. Specifically, it has become highly critical now to build and provide services which automate the aggregation of data from various sources, while surmounting the semantic gaps, conflicts and heterogeneity in data sources. The early stage aggregation of data will enable the pre-processing of data from multiple sources while reconciling the temporal gaps in measurement time series, and aligning their respective a-synchronicities. This low level type of data fusion process needs to be automated and chained to more advanced level of data fusion services specialising in observation forecasts at spaces where sensing is not deployed; or at time slices where sensing has not taken place yet. As a result, multi-level fusion services are required among the families of specific enablers for monitoring environments and spaces in the Future Internet. These have been intially deployed and piloted in the ongoing ENVIROFI project of the FI-PPP programme [1]. Automated fusion and modelling of in situ and remote sensing data has been set up and the experimentation successfully conducted using RBF networks for the spatial fusion of water quality parameters measurements from satellite and stationary buoys in the Irish Sea. The RBF networks method scales for the spatial data fusion of multiple types of observation sources. This

  1. Modelling Alzheimer’s disease: from past to future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia eSaraceno

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is emerging as the most prevalent and socially disruptive illness of aging populations, as more people live long enough to become affected. Although AD is placing a considerable and increasing burden on society, it represents the largest unmet medical need in neurology, because current drugs improve symptoms, but do not have profound disease-modifying effects.Although AD pathogenesis is multifaceted and difficult to pinpoint, genetic and cell biological studies led to the amyloid hypothesis, which posits that Aβ plays a pivotal role in AD pathogenesis. Amyloid precursor protein (APP, as well as β- and γ-secretases are the principal players involved in Aβ production, while α-secretase cleavage on APP prevents Aβ deposition. The association of early onset familial AD with mutations in the APP and γ-secretase components provided a potential tool of generating animal models of the disease. However, a model that recapitulates all the aspects of AD has not yet been produced.Here, we face the problem of modelling AD pathology describing several models, which have played a major role in defining critical disease-related mechanisms and in exploring novel potential therapeutic approaches. In particular, we will provide an extensive overview on the distinct features and pros and contras of different AD models, ranging from invertebrate to rodent models and finally dealing with computational models and induced pluripotent stem cells.

  2. Numerical modelling of present and future hydrology at Laxemar- Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden)); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has performed site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. The modelling reported in this document is focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The main objective of the modelling was to provide input to the radionuclide transport and dose calculations that were carried out as a part of the comparison between the Laxemar and Forsmark sites

  3. Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, F.; Maisch, M.; Rothenbühler, C.; Hoelzle, M.; Haeberli, W.

    2007-02-01

    The observed rapid glacier wastage in the European Alps during the past 20 years already has strong impacts on the natural environment (rock fall, lake formation) as well as on human activities (tourism, hydro-power production, etc.) and poses several new challenges also for glacier monitoring. With a further increase of global mean temperature in the future, it is likely that Alpine glaciers and the high-mountain environment as an entire system will further develop into a state of imbalance. Hence, the assessment of future glacier geometries is a valuable prerequisite for various impact studies. In order to calculate and visualize in a consistent manner future glacier extent for a large number of individual glaciers (> 100) according to a given climate change scenario, we have developed an automated and simple but robust approach that is based on an empirical relationship between glacier size and the steady-state accumulation area ratio (AAR 0) in the Alps. The model requires digital glacier outlines and a digital elevation model (DEM) only and calculates new glacier geometries from a given shift of the steady-state equilibrium line altitude (ELA 0) by means of hypsographic modelling. We have calculated changes in number, area and volume for 3062 individual glacier units in Switzerland and applied six step changes in ELA 0 (from + 100 to + 600 m) combined with four different values of the AAR 0 (0.5, 0.6, 0.67, 0.75). For an AAR 0 of 0.6 and an ELA 0 rise of 200 m (400 m) we calculate a total area loss of - 54% (- 80%) and a corresponding volume loss of - 50% (- 78%) compared to the 1973 glacier extent. In combination with a geocoded satellite image, the future glacier outlines are also used for automated rendering of perspective visualisations. This is a very attractive tool for communicating research results to the general public. Our study is illustrated for a test site in the Upper Engadine (Switzerland), where landscape changes above timberline play an

  4. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  5. Mathematical modelling of anaerobic digestion processes: applications and future needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batstone, Damien J.; Puyol, Daniel; Flores Alsina, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    of the role of the central carbon catabolic metabolism in anaerobic digestion, with an increased importance of phosphorous, sulfur, and metals as electron source and sink, and consideration of hydrogen and methane as potential electron sources. The paradigm of anaerobic digestion is challenged by anoxygenic...... phototrophism, where energy is relatively cheap, but electron transfer is expensive. These new processes are commonly not compatible with the existing structure of anaerobic digestion models. These core issues extend to application of anaerobic digestion in domestic plant-wide modelling, with the need......Anaerobic process modelling is a mature and well-established field, largely guided by a mechanistic model structure that is defined by our understanding of underlying processes. This led to publication of the IWA ADM1, and strong supporting, analytical, and extension research in the 15 years since...

  6. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    by assuming a decrease of biomass availability for the electricity and heat sectors respectively. The base line scenario for reducing biomass is set to be IDA 2050. The results show that reduction of biomass use in the heat sector could reduce biomass consumption with less electricity exported than...... than the other scenarios but also a system more self-reliant in terms of electricity with the least international interconnection capacity. The CC2050 scenario builds a more electrified energy system through producing weather dependent, thus intermittent RES rather than biomass and integrating more...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  7. Research for Future Training Modeling and Simulation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Simulation (M&S) — 2010 Research,” for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Systems Engineering, Director, Modeling and...http://ignoranceisfutile.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/darpa-backked- siri -nearing-launch-of-personal-artificial- intelligence/. 11 virtual assistant ...this TMSSP addresses: • Defense Training Environment (DTE) • Personal Learning Assistant (PLA), and • More agile business models for training. This

  8. Pharmacovigilance and Biomedical Informatics: A Model for Future Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beninger, Paul; Ibara, Michael A

    2016-12-01

    The discipline of pharmacovigilance is rooted in the aftermath of the thalidomide tragedy of 1961. It has evolved as a result of collaborative efforts by many individuals and organizations, including physicians, patients, Health Authorities, universities, industry, the World Health Organization, the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences, and the International Conference on Harmonisation. Biomedical informatics is rooted in technologically based methodologies and has evolved at the speed of computer technology. The purpose of this review is to bring a novel lens to pharmacovigilance, looking at the evolution and development of the field of pharmacovigilance from the perspective of biomedical informatics, with the explicit goal of providing a foundation for discussion of the future direction of pharmacovigilance as a discipline. For this review, we searched [publication trend for the log 10 value of the numbers of publications identified in PubMed] using the key words [informatics (INF), pharmacovigilance (PV), phar-macovigilance þ informatics (PV þ INF)], for [study types] articles published between [1994-2015]. We manually searched the reference lists of identified articles for additional information. Biomedical informatics has made significant contributions to the infrastructural development of pharmacovigilance. However, there has not otherwise been a systematic assessment of the role of biomedical informatics in enhancing the field of pharmacovigilance, and there has been little cross-discipline scholarship. Rapidly developing innovations in biomedical informatics pose a challenge to pharmacovigilance in finding ways to include new sources of safety information, including social media, massively linked databases, and mobile and wearable wellness applications and sensors. With biomedical informatics as a lens, it is evident that certain aspects of pharmacovigilance are evolving more slowly. However, the high levels of mutual interest in

  9. Model Penentuan Nilai Target Functional Requirement Berbasis Utilitas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cucuk Nur Rosyidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In a product design and development process, a designer faces a problem to decide functional requirement (FR target values. That decision is made under a risk since it is conducted in the early design phase using incomplete information. Utility function can be used to reflect the decision maker attitude towards the risk in making such decision. In this research, we develop a utility-based model to determine FR target values using quadratic utility function and information from Quality Function Deployment (QFD. A pencil design is used as a numerical example using quadratic utility function for each FR. The model can be applied for balancing customer and designer interest in determining FR target values.

  10. Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Chapman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE. It considers the city (i.e., Wellington as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption, environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

  11. Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolk, Wilma A; Stone, Chris; de Vlas, Sake J

    2015-03-01

    Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Steven J.; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, Page

    2016-08-02

    This paper compares projections over the 21st century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model. Differences in model responses can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

  13. How well can we forecast future model error and uncertainty by mining past model performance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomatine, Dimitri

    2016-04-01

    ) method by Koenker and Basset in which linear regression is used to build predictive models for distribution quantiles [1] (b) the UNEEC method [2,3,7] which takes into account the input variables influencing such uncertainty and uses more advanced machine learning (non-linear) methods (e.g. neural networks or k-NN method) (c) the recent DUBRAE method (Dynamic Uncertainty Model By Regression on Absolute Error), a autoregressive model of model residuals which first corrects the model residual and then employs an autoregressive statistical model for uncertainty prediction) [5] 2. The data uncertainty (parametric and/or input) - in this case we study the propagation of uncertainty (presented typically probabilistically) from parameters or inputs to the model outputs. For real complex non-linear functions (models) implemented in software various versions of the Monte Carlo simulation are used: values of parameters or inputs are sampled from the assumed distributions and the model is run multiple times to generate multiple outputs. The data generated by Monte Carlo analysis can be used to build a machine learning model which will be able to make predictions of model uncertainty for the future his method is named MLUE (Machine Learning for Uncertainty Estimation) and is covered in [4,6]. 3. Structural uncertainty stemming from inadequate model structure. The paper discusses the possibilities and experiences of building the models able to forecast (rather than analyse) residual and parametric uncertainty of hydrological models. References [1] Koenker, R., and G. Bassett (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33- 50, doi:10.2307/1913643. [2] D.L. Shrestha, D.P. Solomatine (2006). Machine learning approaches for estimation of prediction interval for the model output. Neural Networks J., 19(2), 225-235. [3] D.P. Solomatine, D.L. Shrestha (2009). A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques. Water Resources Res. 45, W00B11. [4] D. L

  14. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  15. Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Through Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts with Ames Research Center, Intelligent Automation Inc., based in Rockville, Maryland, advanced specialized software the company had begun developing with U.S. Department of Defense funding. The agent-based infrastructure now allows NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System to explore ways of improving the utilization of the National Airspace System (NAS), providing flexible modeling of every part of the NAS down to individual planes, airports, control centers, and even weather. The software has been licensed to a number of aerospace and robotics customers, and has even been used to model the behavior of crowds.

  16. Process modeling - It's history, current status, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duttweiler, Russell E.; Griffith, Walter M.; Jain, Sulekh C.

    1991-04-01

    The development of process modeling is reviewed to examine the potential of process applications to prevent and solve problems associated with the aerospace industry. The business and global environments is assessed, and the traditional approach to product/process design is argued to be obsolete. A revised engineering process is described which involves planning and prediction before production by means of process simulation. Process simulation can permit simultaneous engineering of unit processes and complex processes, and examples are given in the cross-coupling of forging-process variance. The implementation of process modeling, CAE, and computer simulations are found to reduce costs and time associated with technological development when incorporated judiciously.

  17. Requirements traceability in model-driven development: Applying model and transformation conformance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrade Almeida, João; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; van Eck, Pascal

    The variety of design artifacts (models) produced in a model-driven design process results in an intricate relationship between requirements and the various models. This paper proposes a methodological framework that simplifies management of this relationship, which helps in assessing the quality of

  18. Physically unclonable functions (PUFs) applications, models, and future directions

    CERN Document Server

    Wachsmann, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Today, embedded systems are used in many security-critical applications, from access control, electronic tickets, sensors, and smart devices (e.g., wearables) to automotive applications and critical infrastructures. These systems are increasingly used to produce and process both security-critical and privacy-sensitive data, which bear many security and privacy risks. Establishing trust in the underlying devices and making them resistant to software and hardware attacks is a fundamental requirement in many applications and a challenging, yet unsolved, task. Solutions solely based on software ca

  19. Training Teachers Towards Responsibility in Future Education: Innovative Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler-Arlosoff, Nava

    The importance of teacher education is stressed, and two models for teacher education in Israel, one for teachers of gifted children in an urban environment and the other for training teachers of culturally different children, are offered. The teachers of gifted children were provided with a theory and practice course, a workshop, and practical…

  20. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  1. Carsharing Business Models in Germany: Characteristics, Success and Future Prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Munzel, K.L.; Boon, W.P.C.; Frenken, K.; Vaskelainen, T.

    2017-01-01

    Carsharing provides an alternative to private car ownership by allowing car use temporarily on an ondemand basis. Operators provide carsharing services using different business models and ownership structures. We distinguish between cooperative, business-to-consumer (B2C) roundtrip and one-way, as

  2. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  3. A GENERALIZATION OF TRADITIONAL KANO MODEL FOR CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renáta Turisová

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The theory of attractiveness determines the relationship between the technically achieved and customer perceived quality of product attributes. The most frequently used approach in the theory of attractiveness is the implementation of Kano‘s model. There exist a lot of generalizations of that model which take into consideration various aspects and approaches focused on understanding the customer preferences and identification of his priorities for a selling  product. The aim of this article is to outline another possible generalization of Kano‘s model.Methodology/Approach: The traditional Kano’s model captures the nonlinear relationship between reached attributes of quality and customer requirements. The individual attributes of quality are divided into three main categories: must-be, one-dimensional, attractive quality and into two side categories: indifferent and reverse quality. The well selling product has to contain the must-be attribute. It should contain as many one-dimensional attributes as possible. If there are also supplementary attractive attributes, it means that attractiveness of the entire product, from the viewpoint of the customer, nonlinearly sharply rises what has a direct positive impact on a decision of potential customer when purchasing the product. In this article, we show that inclusion of individual quality attributes of a product to the mentioned categories depends, among other things, also on costs on life cycle of the product, respectively on a price of the product on the market.Findings: In practice, we are often encountering the inclusion of products into different price categories: lower, middle and upper class. For a certain type of products the category is either directly declared by a producer (especially in automotive industry, or is determined by a customer by means of assessment of available market prices. To each of those groups of a products different customer expectations can be assigned

  4. Nuclear model developments in FLUKA for present and future applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerutti Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The FLUKAS code [1–3] is used in research laboratories all around the world for challenging applications spanning a very wide range of energies, projectiles and targets. FLUKAS is also extensively used for in hadrontherapy research studies and clinical planning systems. In this paper some of the recent developments in the FLUKAS nuclear physics models of relevance for very different application fields including medical physics are presented. A few examples are shown demonstrating the effectiveness of the upgraded code.

  5. Nuclear model developments in FLUKA for present and future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerutti, Francesco; Empl, Anton; Fedynitch, Anatoli; Ferrari, Alfredo; Ruben, GarciaAlia; Sala, Paola R.; Smirnov, George; Vlachoudis, Vasilis

    2017-09-01

    The FLUKAS code [1-3] is used in research laboratories all around the world for challenging applications spanning a very wide range of energies, projectiles and targets. FLUKAS is also extensively used for in hadrontherapy research studies and clinical planning systems. In this paper some of the recent developments in the FLUKAS nuclear physics models of relevance for very different application fields including medical physics are presented. A few examples are shown demonstrating the effectiveness of the upgraded code.

  6. In Marriage of Model and Numerics, Glimpses of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejadmalayeri, Alireza; Vasilyev, Oleg V.; Vezolainen, Alexei

    2012-11-01

    A newly defined concept of m-refinement (model-refinement), which provides two-way coupling of physical models and numerical methods, is employed to study the Reynolds scaling of SCALES with constant levels of fidelity. Within the context of wavelet-based methods, this new hybrid methodology provides a hierarchical space/time dynamically adaptive automatic smooth transition from resolving the Kolmogorov length-scale (WDNS) to decomposing deterministic-coherent/stochastic-incoherent modes (CVS) to capturing more/less energetic structures (SCALES). This variable fidelity turbulence modeling approach utilizes a unified single solver framework by means of a Lagrangian spatially varying thresholding technique. The fundamental findings of this computational complexity study are summarized as follows: 1) SCALES can achieve the objective of ``controlling the captured flow-physics as desired'' by profoundly small number of spatial modes; 2) Reynolds scaling of constant-dissipation SCALES is the same regardless of fidelity of the simulations; 3) the number of energy containing structures at a fixed level of resolved turbulent kinetic energy scales linearly with Re; and 4) the fractal dimension of coherent energy containing structures is close to unity. This work was supported by NSF under grant No. CBET-0756046.

  7. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  8. Univariate time series modeling and an application to future claims amount in SOCSO's invalidity pension scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Ahmad, Abu Bakar; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md.; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ismail, Isma Liana; Zulkifli, Faiz; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd

    2012-09-01

    The main objective of this study is to forecast the future claims amount of Invalidity Pension Scheme (IPS). All data were derived from SOCSO annual reports from year 1972 - 2010. These claims consist of all claims amount from 7 benefits offered by SOCSO such as Invalidity Pension, Invalidity Grant, Survivors Pension, Constant Attendance Allowance, Rehabilitation, Funeral and Education. Prediction of future claims of Invalidity Pension Scheme will be made using Univariate Forecasting Models to predict the future claims among workforce in Malaysia.

  9. The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. Copyright © 2016.

  11. Future high precision experiments and new physics beyond Standard Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Mingxing.

    1993-01-01

    High precision (< 1%) electroweak experiments that have been done or are likely to be done in this decade are examined on the basis of Standard Model (SM) predictions of fourteen weak neutral current observables and fifteen W and Z properties to the one-loop level, the implications of the corresponding experimental measurements to various types of possible new physics that enter at the tree or loop level were investigated. Certain experiments appear to have special promise as probes of the new physics considered here

  12. Modeling the minimum enzymatic requirements for optimal cellulose conversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Haan, R; Van Zyl, W H; Van Zyl, J M; Harms, T M

    2013-01-01

    Hydrolysis of cellulose is achieved by the synergistic action of endoglucanases, exoglucanases and β-glucosidases. Most cellulolytic microorganisms produce a varied array of these enzymes and the relative roles of the components are not easily defined or quantified. In this study we have used partially purified cellulases produced heterologously in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to increase our understanding of the roles of some of these components. CBH1 (Cel7), CBH2 (Cel6) and EG2 (Cel5) were separately produced in recombinant yeast strains, allowing their isolation free of any contaminating cellulolytic activity. Binary and ternary mixtures of the enzymes at loadings ranging between 3 and 100 mg g −1 Avicel allowed us to illustrate the relative roles of the enzymes and their levels of synergy. A mathematical model was created to simulate the interactions of these enzymes on crystalline cellulose, under both isolated and synergistic conditions. Laboratory results from the various mixtures at a range of loadings of recombinant enzymes allowed refinement of the mathematical model. The model can further be used to predict the optimal synergistic mixes of the enzymes. This information can subsequently be applied to help to determine the minimum protein requirement for complete hydrolysis of cellulose. Such knowledge will be greatly informative for the design of better enzymatic cocktails or processing organisms for the conversion of cellulosic biomass to commodity products. (letter)

  13. Modelling future improvements in the St. Louis River fishery ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presence of fish consumption advisories has a negative impact on fishing. In the St. Louis River, an important natural resource management goal is to reduce or eliminate fish consumption advisories by remediating contaminant sediments and improving aquatic habitat. However, we currently lack sufficient understanding to estimate the cumulative effects of these habitat improvements on fish contaminant burdens. To address this gap, our study had two main research objectives: first, to determine the relationship between game fish habitat use and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) concentrations in the lower St. Louis River, and two, to calibrate and validate a habitat-based Biota-Sediment Accumulation Factor (BSAF) model that estimates fish PCBs concentration as a function of both sediment and habitat quality. We sampled two resident fishes, Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) and Black Crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), and two migratory fishes, Northern Pike (Esox lucius) and Walleye (Sander vitreus) of varying size and from locations spread across the St. Louis River estuary, the largest coastal wetland complex in Lake Superior. We found differences in contaminant concentration that were related to habitat usage, though results varied by species. For migratory fishes, increasing diet from Lake Superior was associated with decreasing PCBs concentration in tissue. For resident fishes, PCBs concentration was highest in the industrial portion of the river. Model calibra

  14. Modeling Turkey’s future LNG supply security strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efe Biresselioglu, Mehmet; Hakan Demir, Muhittin; Kandemir, Cansu

    2012-01-01

    Turkey was among those countries which decided to increase its natural gas consumption in the 1990s, due to its relative low cost and lack of impact on the environment. However, a heavy dependence on imports, from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, respectively, creates a threat to energy security, both in terms of source and supply diversity. Accordingly, we follow an analytical approach to identify the accuracy of our assumption, considering the current economic, political and security risk. To this end, we formulate and solve a mixed integer programming model that determines the optimal sourcing strategy for Turkey’s increasing LNG demand. This model demonstrates a number of alternative policy options for LNG supply. Furthermore, we consider that increasing the proportion of LNG in the overall gas supply will contribute to the aim of improving Turkey’s level of energy security. - Highlights: ► Turkey’s best policy option is to increase the share of LNG. ► Turkey’s main suppliers of LNG will be Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. ► Norway, Libya, and Oman contribute to the supply with rather smaller shares. ► With high risk scenario Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya will not be suppliers. ► Oman and Qatar will cover; even though they are high-cost suppliers.

  15. Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Cole; Kirsten Ironside; Jon Eischeid; Gregg Garfin; Phillip B. Duffy; Chris Toney

    2011-01-01

    The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ~11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the...

  16. Management and Service-aware Networking Architectures (MANA) for Future Internet - Position Paper: System Functions, Capabilities and Requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galis, A.; Abramowicz, H.; Brunner, M.; Raz, D.; Chemouil, P.; Pras, Aiko

    Future Internet (FI) research and development threads have recently been gaining momentum all over the world and as such the international race to create a new generation Internet is in full swing: GENI, Asia Future Internet, Future Internet Forum Korea, European Union Future Internet Assembly

  17. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  18. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  19. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  20. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  1. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    processes in WWTPs could potentially benefit from this framework, especially when distributed dynamics have a significant impact on the overall unit process performance. In these cases, current models that rely on average properties cannot sufficiently captured the true behaviour. Examples are bubble size...

  2. Blended learning in anesthesia education: current state and future model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Jaya; Kurup, Viji

    2012-12-01

    Educators in anesthesia residency programs across the country are facing a number of challenges as they attempt to integrate blended learning techniques in their curriculum. Compared with the rest of higher education, which has made advances to varying degrees in the adoption of online learning anesthesiology education has been sporadic in the active integration of blended learning. The purpose of this review is to discuss the challenges in anesthesiology education and relevance of the Universal Design for Learning framework in addressing them. There is a wide chasm between student demand for online education and the availability of trained faculty to teach. The design of the learning interface is important and will significantly affect the learning experience for the student. This review examines recent literature pertaining to this field, both in the realm of higher education in general and medical education in particular, and proposes the application of a comprehensive learning model that is new to anesthesiology education and relevant to its goals of promoting self-directed learning.

  3. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  4. The indirect link between perceived parenting and adolescent future orientation : A multiple-step model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seginer, R.; Vermulst, A.A.; Shoyer, S.

    2004-01-01

    The indirect links between perceived mothers' and fathers' autonomous-accepting parenting and future orientation were examined in a mediational model consisting of five steps: perceived mothers' and fathers' autonomous-accepting parenting, self-evaluation, and the motivational, cognitive

  5. A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

    2015-01-01

    The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

  6. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  7. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  8. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

    1997-01-01

    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried

  9. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists...... of several steps to evaluate lifetime milk production and individual cow somatic cell counts and to finally predict the average production for each day that the cow is alive. Herd recording data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to train and test a model predicting milk production (including factors...

  10. A non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Pircalabu, Anca

    2018-01-01

    The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modeling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind...... index is bounded from both above and below, and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) in the context of modeling the wind power production...... index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically...

  11. Research on Computer Aided Innovation Model of Weapon Equipment Requirement Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Guo, Qisheng; Wang, Rui; Li, Liang

    Firstly, in order to overcome the shortcoming of using only AD or TRIZ solely, and solve the problems currently existed in weapon equipment requirement demonstration, the paper construct the method system of weapon equipment requirement demonstration combining QFD, AD, TRIZ, FA. Then, we construct a CAI model frame of weapon equipment requirement demonstration, which include requirement decomposed model, requirement mapping model and requirement plan optimization model. Finally, we construct the computer aided innovation model of weapon equipment requirement demonstration, and developed CAI software of equipment requirement demonstration.

  12. A 2nd generation static model of greenhouse energy requirements (horticern) : a comparison with dynamic models

    CERN Document Server

    Jolliet, O; Munday, G L

    1989-01-01

    Optimisation of a greenhouse and its components requires a suitable model permitting precise determination of its energy requirements. Existing static models are simple but lack precision; dynamic models though more precise, are unsuitable for use over long periods and difficult to handle in practice. A theoretical study and measurements from the CERN trial greenhouse have allowed the development of new static model named "HORTICERN", precise and easy to use for predicting energy consumption and which takes into account effects of solar energy, wind and radiative loss to the sky. This paper compares the HORTICERN model with the dynamic models of Bot, Takakura, Van Bavel and Gembloux, and demonstrates that its precision is comparable; differences on average being less than 5%, it is independent of type of greenhouse (e.g. single or double glazing, Hortiplus, etc.) and climate. The HORTICERN method has been developed for PC use and is proving to be a powerful tool for greenhouse optimisation by research work...

  13. Generic feature of future crossing of phantom divide in viable f(R) gravity models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bamba, Kazuharu; Geng, Chao-Qiang; Lee, Chung-Chi

    2010-01-01

    We study the equation of state for dark energy and explicitly demonstrate that the future crossings of the phantom divide line w DE = −1 are the generic feature in the existing viable f(R) gravity models. We also explore the future evolution of the cosmological horizon entropy and illustrate that the cosmological horizon entropy oscillates with time due to the oscillatory behavior of the Hubble parameter. The important cosmological consequence is that in the future, the sign of the time derivative of the Hubble parameter changes from negative to positive in these viable f(R) gravity models

  14. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  15. Prediction of future credit rating using a non-Markovian model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Haur, Ng Kok

    2017-04-01

    The matrix of transition probabilities between rating classes is a popular approach for predicting the future credit rating. This paper instead attempts to predict the future credit rating using a non-Markovian model. The prediction is done via the probability of the future credit rating given the ratings in the present and previous quarters. The estimation of the conditional probability of future credit rating is carried out by means of simulation after fitting the data with a multivariate power-normal distribution. The results based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal indicate the need of extending the Markovian model to the non-Markovian model.

  16. To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

  17. Understanding the relationship between Kano model's customer satisfaction scores and self-stated requirements importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O C; Hashim, Nor Laily

    2016-01-01

    Customer satisfaction is the result of product quality and viability. The place of the perceived satisfaction of users/customers for a software product cannot be neglected especially in today competitive market environment as it drives the loyalty of customers and promotes high profitability and return on investment. Therefore understanding the importance of requirements as it is associated with the satisfaction of users/customers when their requirements are met is worth the pain considering. It is necessary to know the relationship between customer satisfactions when their requirements are met (or their dissatisfaction when their requirements are unmet) and the importance of such requirement. So many works have been carried out on customer satisfaction in connection with the importance of requirements but the relationship between customer satisfaction scores (coefficients) of the Kano model and users/customers self-stated requirements importance have not been sufficiently explored. In this study, an attempt is made to unravel the underlying relationship existing between Kano model's customer satisfaction indexes and users/customers self reported requirements importance. The results of the study indicate some interesting associations between these considered variables. These bivariate associations reveal that customer satisfaction index (SI), and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) and customer dissatisfaction index (DI) and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) are highly correlated (r = 96 %) and thus ASC can be used in place of either SI or DI in representing customer satisfaction scores. Also, these Kano model's customer satisfaction variables (SI, DI, and ASC) are each associated with self-stated requirements importance (IMP). Further analysis indicates that the value customers or users place on requirements that are met or on features that are incorporated into a product influences the level of satisfaction such customers derive from the product. The

  18. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Models and data requirements for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-03-01

    It has been widely recognised for many years that the safety of the nuclear power generation depends heavily on the human factors related to plant operation. This has been confirmed by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Both these cases revealed how human actions can defeat engineered safeguards and the need for special operator training to cover the possibility of unexpected plant conditions. The importance of the human factor also stands out in the analysis of abnormal events and insights from probabilistic safety assessments (PSA's), which reveal a large proportion of cases having their origin in faulty operator performance. A consultants' meeting, organized jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) was held at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria, December 7-11, 1987, with the aim of reviewing existing models used in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and of identifying the data required. The report collects both the contributions offered by the members of the Expert Task Force and the findings of the extensive discussions that took place during the meeting. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  1. A Third Note on Ageing in a Library Circulation Model: Applications to Future Use and Relegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a circulation model for academic research libraries which uses the mixed Poisson model, incorporating ageing of library materials, to predict future use of monographs and to suggest weeding procedures based on frequency of circulation. Longitudinal studies are examined and statistical details are appended. (Author/LRW)

  2. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  3. An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven

  4. Formation of Future Specialists' Communicative Competence in Language Disciplines through Modeling in Game of Professional Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturikova, Marina V.; Albrekht, Nina V.; Kondyurina, Irina M.; Rozhneva, Svetlana S.; Sankova, Larisa V.; Morozova, Elena S.

    2016-01-01

    The relevance of the research problem driven by the necessity of formation of future specialists' communicative competence as a component of professional competence with the aim of further professional mobility of graduates. The purpose of the article is to justify the possibility and necessity of formation of the required competencies in language…

  5. Concept mapping One-Carbon Metabolism to model future ontologies for nutrient-gene-phenotype interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslin, A C; Green, R; German, J B; Lange, M C

    2014-09-01

    Advances in the development of bioinformatic tools continue to improve investigators' ability to interrogate, organize, and derive knowledge from large amounts of heterogeneous information. These tools often require advanced technical skills not possessed by life scientists. User-friendly, low-barrier-to-entry methods of visualizing nutrigenomics information are yet to be developed. We utilized concept mapping software from the Institute for Human and Machine Cognition to create a conceptual model of diet and health-related data that provides a foundation for future nutrigenomics ontologies describing published nutrient-gene/polymorphism-phenotype data. In this model, maps containing phenotype, nutrient, gene product, and genetic polymorphism interactions are visualized as triples of two concepts linked together by a linking phrase. These triples, or "knowledge propositions," contextualize aggregated data and information into easy-to-read knowledge maps. Maps of these triples enable visualization of genes spanning the One-Carbon Metabolism (OCM) pathway, their sequence variants, and multiple literature-mined associations including concepts relevant to nutrition, phenotypes, and health. The concept map development process documents the incongruity of information derived from pathway databases versus literature resources. This conceptual model highlights the importance of incorporating information about genes in upstream pathways that provide substrates, as well as downstream pathways that utilize products of the pathway under investigation, in this case OCM. Other genes and their polymorphisms, such as TCN2 and FUT2, although not directly involved in OCM, potentially alter OCM pathway functionality. These upstream gene products regulate substrates such as B12. Constellations of polymorphisms affecting the functionality of genes along OCM, together with substrate and cofactor availability, may impact resultant phenotypes. These conceptual maps provide a foundational

  6. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  7. Using hematogram model to predict future metabolic syndrome in elderly: a 4-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Hsiang; Hsu, Chun-Hsien; Lin, Jiunn-Diann; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun; Wu, Chung-Ze; Chao, Ting-Ting; Pei, Dee; Liang, Yao-Jen; Wang, Kun; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-03-01

    The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is proposed to predict future occurrence of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There are some other "non-traditional" risk factors such as hematogram components that are also related to the same endpoints as MetS. In this four-year longitudinal study, we used hematogram components to build models for predicting future occurrence of MetS in older men and women separately. Subjects above 65 years without MetS and related diseases were enrolled. All subjects were followed up until they developed MetS or until up to four years from the day of entry, whichever was earlier. Among the 4539 study participants, 1327 developed MetS. Models were built for men and women separately and the areas under the receiver operation curves were significant. The Kaplan-Meier plot showed that the models could predict future MetS. Finally, Cox regression analysis showed that the hematogram model was correlated to future MetS with hazard ratios of 1.567 and 1.738 in men and women, respectively. Our hematogram models could significantly predict future MetS in elderly and might be more practical and convenient for daily clinical practice.

  8. Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahraman İpekdal

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed to be proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted to document and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM, Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae, an economically important pest of pines in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though, its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming in Europe and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge about species current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern Black Sea Region where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM’s current and future distribution through Artvin and adjacent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical tests showed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for future predictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions. Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climatic conditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.

  9. Model of an aquaponic system for minimised water, energy and nitrogen requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes Lastiri, D; Slinkert, T; Cappon, H J; Baganz, D; Staaks, G; Keesman, K J

    2016-01-01

    Water and nutrient savings can be established by coupling water streams between interacting processes. Wastewater from production processes contains nutrients like nitrogen (N), which can and should be recycled in order to meet future regulatory discharge demands. Optimisation of interacting water systems is a complex task. An effective way of understanding, analysing and optimising such systems is by applying mathematical models. The present modelling work aims at supporting the design of a nearly emission-free aquaculture and hydroponic system (aquaponics), thus contributing to sustainable production and to food security for the 21st century. Based on the model, a system that couples 40 m(3) fish tanks and a hydroponic system of 1,000 m(2) can produce 5 tons of tilapia and 75 tons of tomato yearly. The system requires energy to condense and recover evaporated water, for lighting and heating, adding up to 1.3 GJ/m(2) every year. In the suggested configuration, the fish can provide about 26% of the N required in a plant cycle. A coupling strategy that sends water from the fish to the plants in amounts proportional to the fish feed input, reduces the standard deviation of the NO3(-) level in the fish cycle by 35%.

  10. Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    The actual power requirement of an active loudspeaker during playback of music has not received much attention in the literature. This is probably because no single and simple solution exists and because a complete system knowledge from input voltage to output sound pressure level is required...

  11. Closed loop models for analyzing engineering requirements for simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D.

    1980-01-01

    A closed loop analytic model, incorporating a model for the human pilot, (namely, the optimal control model) that would allow certain simulation design tradeoffs to be evaluated quantitatively was developed. This model was applied to a realistic flight control problem. The resulting model is used to analyze both overall simulation effects and the effects of individual elements. The results show that, as compared to an ideal continuous simulation, the discrete simulation can result in significant performance and/or workload penalties.

  12. FS-OpenSecurity: A Taxonomic Modeling of Security Threats in SDN for Future Sustainable Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsick Sung

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Software Defined Networking (SDN has brought many changes in terms of the interaction processes between systems and humans. It has become the key enabler of software defined architecture, which allows enterprises to build a highly agile Information Technology (IT infrastructure. For Future Sustainability Computing (FSC, SDN needs to deliver on many information technology commitments—more automation, simplified design, increased agility, policy-based management, and network management bond to more liberal IT workflow systems. To address the sustainability problems, SDN needs to provide greater collaboration and tighter integration with networks, servers, and security teams that will have an impact on how enterprises design, plan, deploy and manage networks. In this paper, we propose FS-OpenSecurity, which is a new and pragmatic security architecture model. It consists of two novel methodologies, Software Defined Orchestrator (SDO and SQUEAK, which offer a robust and secure architecture. The secure architecture is required for protection from diverse threats. Usually, security administrators need to handle each threat individually. However, handling threats automatically by adapting to the threat landscape is a critical demand. Therefore, the architecture must handle defensive processes automatically that are collaboratively based on intelligent external and internal information.

  13. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  14. A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

    2014-05-01

    Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

  15. A multi-scale and model approach to estimate future tidal high water statistics in the southern German Bright

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, H.; Mai, S.; Mayer, B.; Pohlmann, T.; Barjenbruch, U.

    2012-04-01

    The interactions of tides, external surges, storm surges and waves with an additional role of the coastal bathymetry define the probability of extreme water levels at the coast. Probabilistic analysis and also process based numerical models allow the estimation of future states. From the physical point of view both, deterministic processes and stochastic residuals are the fundamentals of high water statistics. This study uses a so called model chain to reproduce historic statistics of tidal high water levels (Thw) as well as the prediction of future statistics high water levels. The results of the numerical models are post-processed by a stochastic analysis. Recent studies show, that for future extrapolation of extreme Thw nonstationary parametric approaches are required. With the presented methods a better prediction of time depended parameter sets seems possible. The investigation region of this study is the southern German Bright. The model-chain is the representation of a downscaling process, which starts with an emissions scenario. Regional atmospheric and ocean models refine the results of global climate models. The concept of downscaling was chosen to resolve coastal topography sufficiently. The North Sea and estuaries are modeled with the three-dimensional model HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model. The running time includes 150 years (1950 - 2100). Results of four different hindcast runs and also of one future prediction run are validated. Based on multi-scale analysis and the theory of entropy we analyze whether any significant periodicities are represented numerically. Results show that also hindcasting the climate of Thw with a model chain for the last 60 years is a challenging task. For example, an additional modeling activity must be the inclusion of tides into regional climate ocean models. It is found that the statistics of climate variables derived from model results differs from the statistics derived from measurements. E.g. there are considerable shifts in

  16. Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…

  17. MODELLING THE FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ READINESS TO PERFORMING AND INTERPRETIVE ACTIVITY DURING INSTRUMENTAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chenj Bo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the main fields of training future music teachers in Ukrainian system of higher education is instrumental music one, such as skills of performing and interpretive activities. The aim of the article is to design a model of the future music teachers’ readiness to performing and interpretive activities in musical and instrumental training. The process of modelling is based on several interrelated scientific approaches, including systemic, personality-centered, reflective, competence, active and creative ones. While designing a model of music future teachers’ readinesses to musical interpretive activities, its philosophical, informative, interactive, hedonistic, creative functions are taken into account. Important theoretical and methodological factors are thought to be principles of musical and pedagogical education: culture correspondence and reflection; unity of emotional and conscious, artistic and technical items in musical education; purposeful interrelations and art and pedagogical communication between teachers and students; intensification of music and creative activity. Above-mentioned pedagogical phenomenon is subdivided into four components: motivation-oriented, cognitive-evaluating, performance-independent, creative and productive. For each component relevant criteria and indicators are identified. The stages of future music teachers’ readiness to performing interpretative activity are highlighted: information searching one, which contributes to the implementation of complex diagnostic methods (surveys, questionnaires, testing; regulative and performing one, which is characterized by future music teachers’ immersion into music performing and interpretative activities; operational and reflective stage, which involves activation of mechanisms of future music teachers’ self-knowledge, self-realization, formation of skills of independent artistic and expressive various music genres and styles interpretation; projective and

  18. The Subject-Modeling Approach to Developing the Methodol- ogy Competence of the Future Teachers-Psychologists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gilmanov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Any practical activity of a modern specialist requires the methodology knowledge – the ability of setting and transforming goals, operating with summarized approaches and plans, creating and reconstructing them, etc. The paper deals with the role of the methodology competence in professional thinking; the subject-modeling approach to developing the professional thinking and methodology competence is considered regarding the future teachers-psychologists.The substantiation of the above approach is given concerning the content and structure of the competence in question, as well as the students’ personal characteristics. The psychological mechanism of gaining the experience and professional thinking ability is described as interaction of two models – the cognitive and dynamic emotional ones – both reflecting the professional activity. The results of experimental work, based on such methods as analysis, theoretical modeling, supervision and polling, demon- strated the main developing factors of methodology competence: the general culture level, interest to the future profession, the professional activity presentation in educational process. The research results imply the conclusion that the purposeful pedagogic activity based on the methodology competence is necessary for developing the future specialists’ professional thinking. 

  19. Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.

    2013-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

  20. User Requirements Model for University Timetable Management System

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Althunibat; Mohammad I. Muhairat

    2016-01-01

    Automated timetables are used to schedule courses, lectures and rooms in universities by considering some constraints. Inconvenient and ineffective timetables often waste time and money. Therefore, it is important to investigate the requirements and potential needs of users. Thus, eliciting user requirements of University Timetable Management System (TMS) and their implication becomes an important process for the implementation of TMS. On this note, this paper seeks to propose a m...

  1. The Modeling of Factors That Influence Coast Guard Manpower Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Requirements Determination process. Finally, sincere thanks, hugs, and kisses to my family. I appreciate your enduring patience and encouragement. I...allowances. To help clarify the process, Phase II has guiding principles and core assumptions that direct the Phase. Three of the four guiding principles are...analyst is determining for the first time what manpower is required. The second notable guiding principle is “MRD analysts shall identify and

  2. Research requirements for a unified approach to modelling chemical effects associated with radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, A.A.; Read, D.

    1986-09-01

    This report contains the results of a review of the current modelling, laboratory experiments and field experiments being conducted in the United Kingdom to aid understanding and improve prediction of the effects of chemistry on the disposal of radioactive wastes. The aim has been to summarise present work and derive a structure for future research effort that would support the use of probabilistic risk assessment (pra) methods for the disposal of radioactive wastes. The review was conducted by a combination of letter and personal visits, and preliminary results were reported to a plenary meeting of participants held in April, 1986. Following this meeting, copies of the report were circulated to participants at draft stage, so that the finalised report should be taken to provide as far as possible a consensus of opinion of research requirements. (author)

  3. A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasaraden Mauree

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

  4. Computer simulation modeling of recreation use: Current status, case studies, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2005-01-01

    This report compiles information about recent progress in the application of computer simulation modeling to planning and management of recreation use, particularly in parks and wilderness. Early modeling efforts are described in a chapter that provides an historical perspective. Another chapter provides an overview of modeling options, common data input requirements,...

  5. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  6. Application and Development of Energy System Optimisation Models to Meet Challenges of the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balyk, Olexandr

    Climate change, security of supply and local air pollution are among the challenges that are shaping the future of energy systems worldwide. In response to these challenges, various goals are set nationally and internationally that energy systems are supposed to fulfil. These include e.g. EU 20...... them. The challenges of climate change, security of supply, and local air pollution are addressed in the papers by focusing on renewable energy systems, demand side management options, climate change mitigation and resource potentials. In the process of the study the energy system optimisation models...... upon in the Copenhagen Accord and the importance of large emerging economies in this context, and the role of district heating in the future Danish renewable energy system.The outcomes of this work illustrate the potential of energy system optimisation models to address challenges of the future...

  7. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. S. Cullis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

  8. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

    2018-02-01

    Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

  9. 17 CFR 41.42 - Customer margin requirements for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Customer margin requirements... Margin Requirements § 41.42 Customer margin requirements for security futures—authority, purpose... to regulate customer margin collected by brokers, dealers, and members of national securities...

  10. Constraining RS Models by Future Flavor and Collider Measurements: A Snowmass Whitepaper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agashe, Kaustubh [Maryland U.; Bauer, Martin [Chicago U., EFI; Goertz, Florian [Zurich, ETH; Lee, Seung J. [Korea Inst. Advanced Study, Seoul; Vecchi, Luca [Maryland U.; Wang, Lian-Tao [Chicago U., EFI; Yu, Felix [Fermilab

    2013-10-03

    Randall-Sundrum models are models of quark flavor, because they explain the hierarchies in the quark masses and mixings in terms of order one localization parameters of extra dimensional wavefunctions. The same small numbers which generate the light quark masses suppress contributions to flavor violating tree level amplitudes. In this note we update universal constraints from electroweak precision parameters and demonstrate how future measurements of flavor violation in ultra rare decay channels of Kaons and B mesons will constrain the parameter space of this type of models. We show how collider signatures are correlated with these flavor measurements and compute projected limits for direct searches at the 14 TeV LHC run, a 14 TeV LHC luminosity upgrade, a 33 TeV LHC energy upgrade, and a potential 100 TeV machine. We further discuss the effects of a warped model of leptons in future measurements of lepton flavor violation.

  11. Modelling Imperfect Product Line Requirements with Fuzzy Feature Diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noppen, J.A.R.; van den Broek, P.M.; Weston, Nathan; Rashid, Awais

    In this article, we identify that partial, vague and conflicting information can severely limit the effectiveness of approaches that derive feature trees from textual requirement specifications. We examine the impact such imperfect information has on feature tree extraction and we propose the use of

  12. Status, Emerging Ideas and Future Directions of Turbulence Modeling Research in Aeronautics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duraisamy, Karthik; Spalart, Philippe R.; Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2017-01-01

    In July 2017, a three-day Turbulence Modeling Symposium sponsored by the University of Michigan and NASA was held in Ann Arbor, Michigan. This meeting brought together nearly 90 experts from academia, government and industry, with good international participation, to discuss the state of the art in turbulence modeling, emerging ideas, and to wrestle with questions surrounding its future. Emphasis was placed on turbulence modeling in a predictive context in complex problems, rather than on turbulence theory or descriptive modeling. This report summarizes many of the questions, discussions, and conclusions from the symposium, and suggests immediate next steps.

  13. Modelling the future of Boswellia papyrifera population and its frankincense production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemenih, M.; Arts, B.J.M.; Wiersum, K.F.; Bongers, F.

    2014-01-01

    Sustainable production of the aromatic forest product frankincense is at stake due to rapid decline in its resource base. This affects livelihoods of thousands of citizens and several global industries. A system dynamic model approach is used to predict the future population of Boswellia papyrifera

  14. Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, Mikaela; Brinkman, Kees; Geerlings, Suzanne; Smit, Colette; Thyagarajan, Kalyani; Sighem, Ard van; de Wolf, Frank; Hallett, Timothy B.

    2015-01-01

    The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future. We constructed an individual-based model of the

  15. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  16. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  17. A Model for Preservice Teachers' Intentions to Use ICT in Future Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydas, Ozlem; Goktas, Yuksel

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes a model for determining preservice teachers' intentions to use information and communication technology (ICT) in future lessons. Data were collected from 21 preservice teachers via interview in the first stage of the study and from 2904 preservice teachers from 16 different universities via a designed scale in the second stage…

  18. Modelling land Use Change : Improving the prediction of future land use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs, A.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land Use Change: Improving the prediction of future land use patterns. Man has been altering his living environment since prehistoric times and will continue to do so. It is predicted that by 2030 about 90,000 ha will be needed for residential developments in the Netherlands and 55,000 ha

  19. From requirement document to formal modelling and decomposition of control systems

    OpenAIRE

    Yeganefard, Sanaz

    2014-01-01

    Formal modelling of control systems can help with identifying missing requirements and design flaws before implementing them. However, modelling using formal languages can be challenging and time consuming. Therefore intermediate steps may be required to simplify the transition from informal requirements to a formal model.In this work we firstly provide a four-stage approach for structuring and formalising requirements of a control system. This approach is based on monitored, controlled, mode...

  20. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  1. The Benefit of Ambiguity in Understanding Goals in Requirements Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paay, Jeni; Pedell, Sonja; Sterling, Leon

    2011-01-01

    of their research is to create technologies that support more flexible and meaningful social interactions, by combining best practice in software engineering with ethnographic techniques to model complex social interactions from their socially oriented life for the purposes of building rich socio...... ambiguity in the process of elicitation and analysis through the use of empirically informed quality goals attached to functional goals. The authors demonstrate the benefit of articulating a quality goal without turning it into a functional goal. Their study shows that quality goals kept at a high level...... of abstraction, ambiguous and open for conversations through the modelling process add richness to goal models, and communicate quality attributes of the interaction being modelled to the design phase, where this ambiguity is regarded as a resource for design....

  2. Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

    2004-12-01

    planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

  3. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  4. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  5. Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2017-12-01

    The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

  6. Requirements and Problems in Parallel Model Development at DWD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Schäattler

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Nearly 30 years after introducing the first computer model for weather forecasting, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD is developing the 4th generation of its numerical weather prediction (NWP system. It consists of a global grid point model (GME based on a triangular grid and a non-hydrostatic Lokal Modell (LM. The operational demand for running this new system is immense and can only be met by parallel computers. From the experience gained in developing earlier NWP models, several new problems had to be taken into account during the design phase of the system. Most important were portability (including efficieny of the programs on several computer architectures and ease of code maintainability. Also the organization and administration of the work done by developers from different teams and institutions is more complex than it used to be. This paper describes the models and gives some performance results. The modular approach used for the design of the LM is explained and the effects on the development are discussed.

  7. Three Tier Unified Process Model for Requirement Negotiations and Stakeholder Collaborations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Muhammad Ashraf Khan; Abbas, Muhammad; Shahzad, Muhammad

    2012-11-01

    This research paper is focused towards carrying out a pragmatic qualitative analysis of various models and approaches of requirements negotiations (a sub process of requirements management plan which is an output of scope managementís collect requirements process) and studies stakeholder collaborations methodologies (i.e. from within communication management knowledge area). Experiential analysis encompass two tiers; first tier refers to the weighted scoring model while second tier focuses on development of SWOT matrices on the basis of findings of weighted scoring model for selecting an appropriate requirements negotiation model. Finally the results are simulated with the help of statistical pie charts. On the basis of simulated results of prevalent models and approaches of negotiations, a unified approach for requirements negotiations and stakeholder collaborations is proposed where the collaboration methodologies are embeded into selected requirements negotiation model as internal parameters of the proposed process alongside some external required parameters like MBTI, opportunity analysis etc.

  8. Future Directions in Medical Physics: Models, Technology, and Translation to Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siewerdsen, Jeffrey

    The application of physics in medicine has been integral to major advances in diagnostic and therapeutic medicine. Two primary areas represent the mainstay of medical physics research in the last century: in radiation therapy, physicists have propelled advances in conformal radiation treatment and high-precision image guidance; and in diagnostic imaging, physicists have advanced an arsenal of multi-modality imaging that includes CT, MRI, ultrasound, and PET as indispensible tools for noninvasive screening, diagnosis, and assessment of treatment response. In addition to their role in building such technologically rich fields of medicine, physicists have also become integral to daily clinical practice in these areas. The future suggests new opportunities for multi-disciplinary research bridging physics, biology, engineering, and computer science, and collaboration in medical physics carries a strong capacity for identification of significant clinical needs, access to clinical data, and translation of technologies to clinical studies. In radiation therapy, for example, the extraction of knowledge from large datasets on treatment delivery, image-based phenotypes, genomic profile, and treatment outcome will require innovation in computational modeling and connection with medical physics for the curation of large datasets. Similarly in imaging physics, the demand for new imaging technology capable of measuring physical and biological processes over orders of magnitude in scale (from molecules to whole organ systems) and exploiting new contrast mechanisms for greater sensitivity to molecular agents and subtle functional / morphological change will benefit from multi-disciplinary collaboration in physics, biology, and engineering. Also in surgery and interventional radiology, where needs for increased precision and patient safety meet constraints in cost and workflow, development of new technologies for imaging, image registration, and robotic assistance can leverage

  9. Future primary teacher‟s professional training to organizations of healthfocuses educational environment: theoretical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larysa Slyvka

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the analysis of psycological and pedagogical literature the essence of thenotions “healthfocuses environment”, “primary teachers’ training to carry out healthfocusesenvironment”, “primary teachers’ readiness to carry out healthfocuses environment” isspecified. The model of preperation of the students of speciality “Primary Education” tohealthfocuses environment is offered. The totality of knowledge necessary for solvingprofessionally important tasks and realization healthpreserving activity is presented, skills andabilities which are the basis for realization of healthpreserving activity of future teachers insecondary educational establishments are stressed.Key words: health, healthy way of life, younger school-children, future primaryteachers’, healthfocuses environment.

  10. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  11. Moisture fluxes towards Switzerland: investigating future changes in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazan, Valerie; Martius, Olivia; Martynov, Andrey; Panziera, Luca

    2017-04-01

    High integrated vapor transport (IVT) in the atmosphere directed perpendicular to the orography is an important proxy for flood related precipitation in many mountainous areas around the world. Here we focus on flood related IVT and its changes in a warmer climate in Switzerland, where most high-impact floods events in the past 30 years were connected to exceptional IVT upstream of the mountains. Our study aims at investigating how these critical IVT values are projected to evolve in the future in a changing climate. The IVT is computed from 15 CMIP5 climate models for the past (1950-2005) and the future (2006-2100) under the RCP 8.5 scenario ("business as usual"). In order to check the accuracy of the models and the effect of the varying resolution, present day IVT from the CMIP5 models is compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (period 1979-2015). A quantile mapping technique is then used to correct biases. The same bias corrections are applied to the future (2006-2100) IVT data. Finally, future changes in extreme IVT are investigated. This includes an analysis of changes in the magnitude and direction of the moisture flux in the different seasons for different regions in Switzerland.

  12. Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

    2018-03-01

    Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

  13. The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

    2017-05-03

    The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

  14. MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

    2014-01-01

    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  15. Mathematical Formulation Requirements and Specifications for the Process Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steefel, C.; Moulton, D.; Pau, G.; Lipnikov, K.; Meza, J.; Lichtner, P.; Wolery, T.; Bacon, D.; Spycher, N.; Bell, J.; Moridis, G.; Yabusaki, S.; Sonnenthal, E.; Zyvoloski, G.; Andre, B.; Zheng, L.; Davis, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) is intended to be a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach for understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. The ASCEM program is aimed at addressing critical EM program needs to better understand and quantify flow and contaminant transport behavior in complex geological systems. It will also address the long-term performance of engineered components including cementitious materials in nuclear waste disposal facilities, in order to reduce uncertainties and risks associated with DOE EM's environmental cleanup and closure activities. Building upon national capabilities developed from decades of Research and Development in subsurface geosciences, computational and computer science, modeling and applied mathematics, and environmental remediation, the ASCEM initiative will develop an integrated, open-source, high-performance computer modeling system for multiphase, multicomponent, multiscale subsurface flow and contaminant transport. This integrated modeling system will incorporate capabilities for predicting releases from various waste forms, identifying exposure pathways and performing dose calculations, and conducting systematic uncertainty quantification. The ASCEM approach will be demonstrated on selected sites, and then applied to support the next generation of performance assessments of nuclear waste disposal and facility decommissioning across the EM complex. The Multi-Process High Performance Computing (HPC) Simulator is one of three thrust areas in ASCEM. The other two are the Platform and Integrated Toolsets (dubbed the Platform) and Site Applications. The primary objective of the HPC Simulator is to provide a flexible and extensible computational engine to simulate the coupled processes and flow scenarios described by the conceptual models developed using the ASCEM Platform. The graded and iterative approach to assessments naturally

  16. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  17. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  18. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  19. Uncertainties in future-proof decision-making: the Dutch Delta Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IJmker, Janneke; Snippen, Edwin; Ruijgh, Erik

    2013-04-01

    In 1953, a number of European countries experienced flooding after a major storm event coming from the northwest. Over 2100 people died of the resulting floods, 1800 of them being Dutch. This gave rise to the development of the so-called Delta Works and Zuiderzee Works that strongly reduced the flood risk in the Netherlands. These measures were a response to a large flooding event. As boundary conditions have changed (increasing population, increasing urban development, etc.) , the flood risk should be evaluated continuously, and measures should be taken if necessary. The Delta Programme was designed to be prepared for future changes and to limit the flood risk, taking into account economics, nature, landscape, residence and recreation . To support decisions in the Delta Programme, the Delta Model was developed. By using four different input scenarios (extremes in climate and economics) and variations in system setup, the outcomes of the Delta Model represent a range of possible outcomes for the hydrological situation in 2050 and 2100. These results flow into effect models that give insight in the integrated effects on freshwater supply (including navigation, industry and ecology) and flood risk. As the long-term water management policy of the Netherlands for the next decades will be based on these results, they have to be reliable. Therefore, a study was carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainties on the model outcomes. The study focused on "known unknowns": uncertainties in the boundary conditions, in the parameterization and in the model itself. This showed that for different parts of the Netherlands, the total uncertainty is in the order of meters! Nevertheless, (1) the total uncertainty is dominated by uncertainties in boundary conditions. Internal model uncertainties are subordinate to that. Furthermore, (2) the model responses develop in a logical way, such that the exact model outcomes might be uncertain, but the outcomes of different model runs

  20. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  1. A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

  2. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  3. Modelling production of field crops and its requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de C.T.; Keulen, van H.

    1987-01-01

    Simulation models are being developed that enable quantitative estimates of the growth and production of the main agricultural crops under a wide range of weather and soil conditions. For this purpose, several hierarchically ordered production situations are distinguished in such a way that the

  4. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  5. Safety Culture: A Requirement for New Business Models — Lessons Learned from Other High Risk Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kecklund, L.

    2016-01-01

    -cost subcontractors can turn out to be much more expensive due to interface proliferation. Other negative effects are social dumping by external contractors and loss of competence if procurement requirements are not taking quality and safety issues into account. Based on MTO Safety’s extensive experience in the nuclear domain and work on safety management and safety culture in the aviation, railway and maritime domain, the paper will present lessons learned which are applicable to the nuclear industry for facing the major challenges ahead. Assuring safety is a fundamental requirement for obtaining a licence to operate a business in nuclear power, aviation and railways, thus safety culture is an essential requirement for a successful business. Therefore safety culture must be part of any new business model in high risk industries. In the future safety culture and leadership commitment and skills in creating safety culture will be even more important. The paper will discuss how companies and public utilities are to achieve this and how the regulators are to assess this where learning across industries is a key success factor. (author)

  6. Past, Present, and Future Anthropogenic Emissions over Asia: a Regional Air Quality Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jung-Hun; Jung, Bujeon; Choi, Ki-Chul; Seo, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae Hyung; Park, Rokjin J.; Youn, Daeok; Jeong, Jaein; Moon, Byung-Kwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2010-05-01

    Climate change will also affect future regional air quality which has potential human health, ecosystem, and economic implications. To analyze the impacts of climate change on Asian air quality, the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea) integrated modeling framework was developed based on global-to-regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models. In this study, we developed emission inventories for the modeling framework for 1980~2100 with an emphasis on Asia emissions. Two emission processing systems which have functions of emission projection, spatial/temporal allocation, and chemical speciation have been also developed in support of atmospheric chemistry models including GEOS-Chem and Models-3/CMAQ. Asia-based emission estimates, projection factors, temporal allocation parameters were combined to improve regional modeling capability of past, present and future air quality over Asia. The global CO emissions show a 23% decrease from the years 1980 to 2000. For the future CO (from year 2000 to 2100), the A2 scenario shows a 95% increase due to the B40 (Residential-Biofuel) sector of Western Africa, Eastern Africa and East Asia and the F51 (Transport Road-Fossil fuel) sector of Middle East, USA and South Asia. The B1 scenario, however, shows a 79% decrease of emissions due to B40 and F51 sectors of East Asia, South Asia and USA for the same period. In many cases, Asian emissions play important roles for global emission increase or decrease depending on the IPCC scenarios considered. The regional ozone forming potential will be changed due to different VOC/NOx emission ratio changes in the future. More similarities and differences of Asian emission characteristics, in comparison with its global counterpart, are investigated.

  7. Charging and billing in modern communications networks : A comprehensive survey of the state of the art and future requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kühne, R.; Huitema, G.B.; Carle, G.

    2012-01-01

    In mobile telecommunication networks the trend for an increasing heterogeneity of access networks, the convergence with fixed networks as well as with the Internet are apparent. The resulting future converged network with an expected wide variety of services and a possibly stiff competition between

  8. Charging and billing in modern communications networks : A comprehensive survey of the state of art and future requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehne, Ralph; Huitema, George; Carle, George

    2012-01-01

    In mobile telecommunication networks the trend for an increasing heterogeneity of access networks, the convergence with fixed networks as well as with the Internet are apparent. The resulting future converged network with an expected wide variety of services and a possibly stiff competition between

  9. Requirements for future control room and visualisation features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia

    2017-01-01

    project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

  10. 17 CFR 1.47 - Requirements for classification of purchases or sales of contracts for future delivery as bona...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of risk exposure attendant to the conduct and management of a commercial enterprise; (3) Contain, and... the regulations. 1.47 Section 1.47 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... trading and position limits then in effect pursuant to section 4a of the Act shall file statement with the...

  11. Modelling of capital requirements in the energy sector: capital market access. Final memorandum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-04-01

    Formal modelling techniques for analyzing the capital requirements of energy industries have been performed at DOE. A survey has been undertaken of a number of models which forecast energy-sector capital requirements or which detail the interactions of the energy sector and the economy. Models are identified which can be useful as prototypes for some portion of DOE's modelling needs. The models are examined to determine any useful data bases which could serve as inputs to an original DOE model. A selected group of models are examined which can comply with the stated capabilities. The data sources being used by these models are covered and a catalog of the relevant data bases is provided. The models covered are: capital markets and capital availability models (Fossil 1, Bankers Trust Co., DRI Macro Model); models of physical capital requirements (Bechtel Supply Planning Model, ICF Oil and Gas Model and Coal Model, Stanford Research Institute National Energy Model); macroeconomic forecasting models with input-output analysis capabilities (Wharton Annual Long-Term Forecasting Model, Brookhaven/University of Illinois Model, Hudson-Jorgenson/Brookhaven Model); utility models (MIT Regional Electricity Model-Baughman Joskow, Teknekron Electric Utility Simulation Model); and others (DRI Energy Model, DRI/Zimmerman Coal Model, and Oak Ridge Residential Energy Use Model).

  12. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  13. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  14. Mathematical Formulation Requirements and Specifications for the Process Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, C.; Moulton, D.; Pau, G.; Lipnikov, K.; Meza, J.; Lichtner, P.; Wolery, T.; Bacon, D.; Spycher, N.; Bell, J.; Moridis, G.; Yabusaki, S.; Sonnenthal, E.; Zyvoloski, G.; Andre, B.; Zheng, L.; Davis, J.

    2010-11-01

    The Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) is intended to be a state-of-the-art scientific tool and approach for understanding and predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. The ASCEM program is aimed at addressing critical EM program needs to better understand and quantify flow and contaminant transport behavior in complex geological systems. It will also address the long-term performance of engineered components including cementitious materials in nuclear waste disposal facilities, in order to reduce uncertainties and risks associated with DOE EM's environmental cleanup and closure activities. Building upon national capabilities developed from decades of Research and Development in subsurface geosciences, computational and computer science, modeling and applied mathematics, and environmental remediation, the ASCEM initiative will develop an integrated, open-source, high-performance computer modeling system for multiphase, multicomponent, multiscale subsurface flow and contaminant transport. This integrated modeling system will incorporate capabilities for predicting releases from various waste forms, identifying exposure pathways and performing dose calculations, and conducting systematic uncertainty quantification. The ASCEM approach will be demonstrated on selected sites, and then applied to support the next generation of performance assessments of nuclear waste disposal and facility decommissioning across the EM complex. The Multi-Process High Performance Computing (HPC) Simulator is one of three thrust areas in ASCEM. The other two are the Platform and Integrated Toolsets (dubbed the Platform) and Site Applications. The primary objective of the HPC Simulator is to provide a flexible and extensible computational engine to simulate the coupled processes and flow scenarios described by the conceptual models developed using the ASCEM Platform. The graded and iterative approach to assessments

  15. Requirements for Logical Models for Value-Added Tax Legislation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ib; Simonsen, Jakob Grue; Larsen, Ken Friis

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems are ubiquitous in commercial enterprises of all sizes and invariably need to account for the notion of value-added tax (VAT). The legal and technical difficulties in handling VAT are exacerbated by spanning a broad and chaotic spectrum of intricate country...... of the Danish VAT law in Web Ontology Language (OWL) and in Con¿git Product Modeling Language (CPML)....

  16. Single High Fidelity Geometric Data Sets for LCM - Model Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-01

    triangles (.raw) to the native triangular facet file (.facet). The software vendors recommend the use of McNeil and Associates’ Rhinoceros 3D for all...surface modeling and export. Rhinoceros has the capability and precision to create highly detailed 3D surface geometry suitable for radar cross section... white before ending up at blue as the temperature increases [27]. IR radiation was discovered in 1800 but its application is still limited in

  17. Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    Full Text Available Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L. cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries' economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2 with two different global climate models (GCMs, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS and MIROC-H (MR. The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.

  18. AnnAGNPS Model Application for Nitrogen Loading Assessment for the Future Midwest Landscape Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Jackson

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The Future Midwest Landscape (FML project is part of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA’s new Ecosystem Services Research Program, undertaken to examine the variety of ways in which landscapes that include crop lands, conservation areas, wetlands, lakes, and streams affect human well-being. The goal of the FML project is to quantify current and future ecosystem services across the region and to examine changes expected to occur as a result of the growing demand for biofuels. This study is one of several pilots taking place under the umbrella of the FML research project. In this study, the USDA Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AnnAGNPS model was applied to the East Fork Kaskaskia River watershed (289.3 km2 located in the Kaskaskia River Basin within the Upper Mississippi River Basin in Illinois. The effect of different spatial resolutions on model performance was investigated by comparing the observed runoff with the AnnAGNPS simulated results. Alternative future scenarios such as meeting future biofuel target were also simulated and analyzed. All delineations of the study area (coarser to finer produced satisfactory results in simulating monthly and annual runoff. However, the size of the delineation does impact the simulation results. Finer delineations better represented the actual landscape and captured small critical areas that would be homogenized in coarser delineation. Those small critical areas are important to target to achieve maximum environment benefit. Simulations of alternative future scenarios showed that as corn production increases to meet future biofuel needs, total nitrogen loss increases. For this watershed, total N loss would be more than doubled if converting all corn/soybean rotation (15,871.2 ha to continuous corn comparing with the base year total N loss which is 11.2 kg/ha. Conservation practices are needed to reduce total nitrogen loss from the watershed. This study provides an important

  19. Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

  20. Stochastic Hourly Weather Generator HOWGH: Validation and its Use in Pest Modelling under Present and Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Hirschi, M.; Spirig, C.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify impact of the climate change on a specific pest (or any weather-dependent process) in a specific site, we may use a site-calibrated pest (or other) model and compare its outputs obtained with site-specific weather data representing present vs. perturbed climates. The input weather data may be produced by the stochastic weather generator. Apart from the quality of the pest model, the reliability of the results obtained in such experiment depend on an ability of the generator to represent the statistical structure of the real world weather series, and on the sensitivity of the pest model to possible imperfections of the generator. This contribution deals with the multivariate HOWGH weather generator, which is based on a combination of parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Here, HOWGH is used to generate synthetic hourly series of three weather variables (solar radiation, temperature and precipitation) required by a dynamic pest model SOPRA to simulate the development of codling moth. The contribution presents results of the direct and indirect validation of HOWGH. In the direct validation, the synthetic series generated by HOWGH (various settings of its underlying model are assumed) are validated in terms of multiple climatic characteristics, focusing on the subdaily wet/dry and hot/cold spells. In the indirect validation, we assess the generator in terms of characteristics derived from the outputs of SOPRA model fed by the observed vs. synthetic series. The weather generator may be used to produce weather series representing present and future climates. In the latter case, the parameters of the generator may be modified by the climate change scenarios based on Global or Regional Climate Models. To demonstrate this feature, the results of codling moth simulations for future climate will be shown. Acknowledgements: The weather generator is developed and validated within the frame of projects WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry

  1. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  2. Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strager, Michael P; Strager, Jacquelyn M; Evans, Jeffrey S; Dunscomb, Judy K; Kreps, Brad J; Maxwell, Aaron E

    2015-01-01

    Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts.

  3. Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael P Strager

    Full Text Available Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2 gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts.

  4. Drivers' communicative interactions: on-road observations and modelling for integration in future automation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portouli, Evangelia; Nathanael, Dimitris; Marmaras, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Social interactions with other road users are an essential component of the driving activity and may prove critical in view of future automation systems; still up to now they have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. In this paper, it is argued that drivers base their anticipations about the traffic scene to a large extent on observations of social behaviour of other 'animate human-vehicles'. It is further argued that in cases of uncertainty, drivers seek to establish a mutual situational awareness through deliberate communicative interactions. A linguistic model is proposed for modelling these communicative interactions. Empirical evidence from on-road observations and analysis of concurrent running commentary by 25 experienced drivers support the proposed model. It is suggested that the integration of a social interactions layer based on illocutionary acts in future driving support and automation systems will improve their performance towards matching human driver's expectations. Practitioner Summary: Interactions between drivers on the road may play a significant role in traffic coordination. On-road observations and running commentaries are presented as empirical evidence to support a model of such interactions; incorporation of drivers' interactions in future driving support and automation systems may improve their performance towards matching driver's expectations.

  5. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-12-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  6. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  7. "Open Access" Requires Clarification: Medical Journal Publication Models Evolve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubowitz, James H; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Provencher, Matthew T

    2017-03-01

    While Arthroscopy journal is a traditional subscription model journal, our companion journal Arthroscopy Techniques is "open access." We used to believe open access simply meant online and free of charge. However, while open-access journals are free to readers, in 2017 authors must make a greater sacrifice in the form of an article-processing charge (APC). Again, while this does not apply to Arthroscopy, the APC will apply to Arthroscopy Techniques. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Region-specific study of the electric utility industry: financial history and future power requirements for the VACAR region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pochan, M.J.

    1985-07-01

    Financial data for the period 1966 to 1981 are presented for the four investor-owned electric utilities in the VACAR (Virginia-Carolinas) region. This region was selected as representative for the purpose of assessing the availability, reliability, and cost of electric power for the future in the United States. The estimated demand for power and planned additions to generating capacity for the region through the year 2000 are also given.

  9. Region-specific study of the electric utility industry: financial history and future power requirements for the VACAR region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochan, M.J.

    1985-07-01

    Financial data for the period 1966 to 1981 are presented for the four investor-owned electric utilities in the VACAR (Virginia-Carolinas) region. This region was selected as representative for the purpose of assessing the availability, reliability, and cost of electric power for the future in the United States. The estimated demand for power and planned additions to generating capacity for the region through the year 2000 are also given

  10. Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

    2005-12-01

    Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

  11. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  12. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  13. Formal Requirements Modeling with Executable Use Cases and Coloured Petri Nets

    OpenAIRE

    Jørgensen, Jens Bæk; Tjell, Simon; Fernandes, Joao Miguel

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents executable use cases (EUCs), which constitute a model-based approach to requirements engineering. EUCs may be used as a supplement to model-driven development (MDD) and can describe and link user-level requirements and more technical software specifications. In MDD, user-level requirements are not always explicitly described, since usually it is sufficient that one provides a specification, or platform-independent model, of the software that is to be developed. Th...

  14. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Japanese electricity grid and a demand-side energy flow module based on a sectorial energy balance table. Both modules are divided and implemented as submodules represented as functionals of supply- and demand-side technology options. Using the developed model, three case studies were performed. Required data were collected through workshops involving researchers and engineers in the energy technology field in Japan. The functionals of technologies were defined on the basis of the availability of data and understanding of the current and future energy systems. Through case studies, it was demonstrated that the potential of energy technologies can be analysed by the developed model considering the mutual relationships of technologies. The contribution of technologies to, e.g., the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions should be carefully examined by quantitative analyses of interdependencies of the technology options

  15. Mortality risk prediction models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: current scenario and future direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammed N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Alramadan, Mohammed; Hossain, Mohammed N; Billah, Baki

    2017-12-01

    Many risk prediction models are currently in use for predicting short-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This review critically appraised the methods that were used for developing these models to assess their applicability in current practice setting as well as for the necessity of up-gradation. Medline via Ovid was searched for articles published between 1946 and 2016 and EMBASE via Ovid between 1974 and 2016 to identify risk prediction models for CABG. Article selection and data extraction was conducted using the CHARMS checklist for review of prediction model studies. Association between model development methods and model's discrimination was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U-test. A total of 53 risk prediction models for short-term mortality following CABG were identified. The review found a wide variation in development methodology of risk prediction models in the field. Ambiguous predictor and outcome definition, sub-optimum sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and inefficient predictor selection technique are major issues identified in the review. Quantitative synthesis in the review showed "missing value imputation" and "adopting machine learning algorithms" may result in better discrimination power of the models. There are aspects in current risk modeling, where there is room for improvement to reflect current clinical practice. Future risk modelling needs to adopt a standardized approach to defining both outcome and predictor variables, rational treatment of missing data and robust statistical techniques to enhance performance of the mortality risk prediction.

  16. Nuclear energy research initiative, an overview of the cooperative program for the risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley E.

    2000-01-01

    , along with the data collection and evaluation methods, that will be needed to evaluate the safety and reliability of future nuclear power plant designs. At the end of the Smart-NPP, DPCIT, and Risk-Informed NPP programs it is expected that methods will have been sufficiently developed and demonstrated to define a more extensive program that will address large-scale development and implementation - leading to tyhe required 35% to 40% reduction in nuclear plant cost for the U. S. de-regulated market and a much shorter construction schedule. The new design and regulatory process is envisioned to use risk-based information to the extent practical and to use ''defense-in-depth'' only when necessary to address uncertainties in PSA models and quipment performance. In the following sections, The Smart-NPP and DPCIT programs are briefly summarized and the Risk-Informed NPP program is described in more detail. (author)

  17. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  18. The present and future of the most favoured inflationary models after Planck 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escudero, Miguel; Ramírez, Héctor; Boubekeur, Lotfi; Mena, Olga [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de Valencia, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 (Spain); Giusarma, Elena, E-mail: miguel.escudero@ific.uv.es, E-mail: hector.ramirez@ific.uv.es, E-mail: lboubekeur@usfq.edu.ec, E-mail: elena.giusarma@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: olga.mena@ific.uv.es [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy)

    2016-02-01

    The value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r in the region allowed by the latest Planck 2015 measurements can be associated to a large variety of inflationary models. We discuss here the potential of future Cosmic Microwave Background cosmological observations in disentangling among the possible theoretical scenarios allowed by our analyses of current Planck temperature and polarization data. Rather than focusing only on r, we focus as well on the running of the primordial power spectrum, α{sub s} and the running thereof, β{sub s}. If future cosmological measurements, as those from the COrE mission, confirm the current best-fit value for β{sub s} ∼> 10{sup −2} as the preferred one, it will be possible to rule-out the most favoured inflationary models.

  19. Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  20. Animal Models of Seizures and Epilepsy: Past, Present, and Future Role for the Discovery of Antiseizure Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löscher, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    The identification of potential therapeutic agents for the treatment of epilepsy requires the use of seizure models. Except for some early treatments, including bromides and phenobarbital, the antiseizure activity of all clinically used drugs was, for the most part, defined by acute seizure models in rodents using the maximal electroshock and subcutaneous pentylenetetrazole seizure tests and the electrically kindled rat. Unfortunately, the clinical evidence to date would suggest that none of these models, albeit useful, are likely to identify those therapeutics that will effectively manage patients with drug resistant seizures. Over the last 30 years, a number of animal models have been developed that display varying degrees of pharmacoresistance, such as the phenytoin- or lamotrigine-resistant kindled rat, the 6-Hz mouse model of partial seizures, the intrahippocampal kainate model in mice, or rats in which spontaneous recurrent seizures develops after inducing status epilepticus by chemical or electrical stimulation. As such, these models can be used to study mechanisms of drug resistance and may provide a unique opportunity for identifying a truly novel antiseizure drug (ASD), but thus far clinical evidence for this hope is lacking. Although animal models of drug resistant seizures are now included in ASD discovery approaches such as the ETSP (epilepsy therapy screening program), it is important to note that no single model has been validated for use to identify potential compounds for as yet drug resistant seizures, but rather a battery of such models should be employed, thus enhancing the sensitivity to discover novel, highly effective ASDs. The present review describes the previous and current approaches used in the search for new ASDs and offers some insight into future directions incorporating new and emerging animal models of therapy resistance.

  1. Numerical Modeling of Climate-Chemistry Connections: Recent Developments and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Jöckel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current state and development of different numerical model classes that are used to simulate the global atmospheric system, particularly Earth’s climate and climate-chemistry connections. The focus is on Chemistry-Climate Models. In general, these serve to examine dynamical and chemical processes in the Earth atmosphere, their feedback, and interaction with climate. Such models have been established as helpful tools in addition to analyses of observational data. Definitions of the global model classes are given and their capabilities as well as weaknesses are discussed. Examples of scientific studies indicate how numerical exercises contribute to an improved understanding of atmospheric behavior. There, the focus is on synergistic investigations combining observations and model results. The possible future developments and challenges are presented, not only from the scientific point of view but also regarding the computer technology and respective consequences for numerical modeling of atmospheric processes. In the future, a stronger cross-linkage of subject-specific scientists is necessary, to tackle the looming challenges. It should link the specialist discipline and applied computer science.

  2. Characterizing the EPODE logic model: unravelling the past and informing the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Koperen, T M; Jebb, S A; Summerbell, C D; Visscher, T L S; Romon, M; Borys, J M; Seidell, J C

    2013-02-01

    EPODE ('Ensemble Prévenons l'Obésité De Enfants' or 'Together let's Prevent Childhood Obesity') is a large-scale, centrally coordinated, capacity-building approach for communities to implement effective and sustainable strategies to prevent childhood obesity. Since 2004, EPODE has been implemented in over 500 communities in six countries. Although based on emergent practice and scientific knowledge, EPODE, as many community programs, lacks a logic model depicting key elements of the approach. The objective of this study is to gain insight in the dynamics and key elements of EPODE and to represent these in a schematic logic model. EPODE's process manuals and documents were collected and interviews were held with professionals involved in the planning and delivery of EPODE. Retrieved data were coded, themed and placed in a four-level logic model. With input from international experts, this model was scaled down to a concise logic model covering four critical components: political commitment, public and private partnerships, social marketing and evaluation. The EPODE logic model presented here can be used as a reference for future and follow-up research; to support future implementation of EPODE in communities; as a tool in the engagement of stakeholders; and to guide the construction of a locally tailored evaluation plan. © 2012 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  3. Requirements for modeling airborne microbial contamination in space stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Houdt, Rob; Kokkonen, Eero; Lehtimäki, Matti; Pasanen, Pertti; Leys, Natalie; Kulmala, Ilpo

    2018-03-01

    Exposure to bioaerosols is one of the facets that affect indoor air quality, especially for people living in densely populated or confined habitats, and is associated to a wide range of health effects. Good indoor air quality is thus vital and a prerequisite for fully confined environments such as space habitats. Bioaerosols and microbial contamination in these confined space stations can have significant health impacts, considering the unique prevailing conditions and constraints of such habitats. Therefore, biocontamination in space stations is strictly monitored and controlled to ensure crew and mission safety. However, efficient bioaerosol control measures rely on solid understanding and knowledge on how these bioaerosols are created and dispersed, and which factors affect the survivability of the associated microorganisms. Here we review the current knowledge gained from relevant studies in this wide and multidisciplinary area of bioaerosol dispersion modeling and biological indoor air quality control, specifically taking into account the specific space conditions.

  4. Modeling future water footprint of barley production in Alberta, Canada: Implications for water use and yields to 2064.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Mohammad Badrul; McAllister, Tim; Cordeiro, Marcos R C; Faramarzi, Monireh

    2018-03-01

    Despite the perception of being one of the most agriculturally productive regions globally, crop production in Alberta, a western province of Canada, is strongly dependent on highly variable climate and water resources. We developed agro-hydrological models to assess the water footprint (WF) of barley by simulating future crop yield (Y) and consumptive water use (CWU) within the agricultural region of Alberta. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop rainfed and irrigated barley Y simulation models adapted to sixty-seven and eleven counties, respectively through extensive calibration, validation, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Eighteen downscaled climate projections from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5 for the 2040-2064 period were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Based on the ensemble of GCMs, rainfed barley yield is projected to increase while irrigated barley is projected to remain unchanged in Alberta. Results revealed a considerable decrease (maximum 60%) in WF to 2064 relative to the simulated baseline 1985-2009 WF. Less water will also be required to produce barley in northern Alberta (rainfed barley) than southern Alberta (irrigated barley) due to reduced water consumption. The modeled WF data adjusted for water stress conditions and found a remarkable change (increase/decrease) in the irrigated counties. Overall, the research framework and the locally adapted regional model results will facilitate the development of future water policies in support of better climate adaptation strategies by providing improved WF projections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

    2017-04-01

    In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit

  6. Planners in the Future City: Using City Information Modelling to Support Planners as Market Actors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emine Mine Thompson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Adams and Tiesdell (2010, Tewdwr-Jones (2012 and Batty (2013 have outlined the importance of information and intelligence in relation to the mediation and management of land, property and urban consumers in the future city. Traditionally, the challenge for urban planners was the generation of meaningful and timely information. Today, the urban planners’ challenge is no longer the timely generation of urban data, rather, it is in relation to how so much information can be exploited and integrated successfully into contemporary spatial planning and governance. The paper investigates this challenge through a commentary on two City Information Modelling (CIM case studies at Northumbria University, UK. This commentary is grouped around four key themes, Accessibility and availability of data, accuracy and consistency of data, manageability of data and integration of data. It is also designed to provoke discussion in relation to the exploitation and improvement of data modelling and visualisation in the urban planning discipline and to contribute to the literature in related fields. The paper concludes that the production of information, its use and modelling, can empower urban planners as they mediate and contest state-market relations in the city. However, its use should be circumspect as data alone does not guarantee delivery of a sustainable urban future, rather, emphasis and future research should be placed upon interpretation and use of data.

  7. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  8. Higgs production at future e + e - colliders in the Georgi-Machacek model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Han, Zhi-Long; Liao, Yi

    2018-02-01

    We study how the dominant single and double SM-like Higgs ( h) production at future e + e - colliders is modified in the Georgi-Machacek (GM) model. On imposing theoretical, indirect and direct constraints, significant deviations of h-couplings from their SM values are still possible; for instance, the Higgs-gauge coupling can be corrected by a factor κ hV V ∈ [0 .93 , 1 .15] in the allowed parameter space. For the Higgs-strahlung e + e - → hZ and vector boson fusion processes {e}+{e}-\\to hν \\overline{ν} , he + e -, the cross section could increase by 32% or decrease by 13%. In the case of associated production with a top quark pair {e}+{e}-\\to ht\\overline{t} , the cross section can be enhanced up to several times when the custodial triplet scalar H 3 0 is resonantly produced. In the meanwhile, the double Higgs production {e}+{e}-\\to hhZ(hhν \\overline{ν}) can be maximally enhanced by one order of magnitude at the resonant H 1,3 0 production. We also include exclusion limits expected from future LHC runs at higher energy and luminosity and discuss their further constraints on the relevant model parameters. We find that the GM model can result in likely measurable deviations of Higgs production from the SM at future e + e - colliders.

  9. Development and application of a backscatter lidar forward operator for quantitative validation of aerosol dispersion models and future data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geisinger, Armin; Behrendt, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Strohbach, Jens; Förstner, Jochen; Potthast, Roland

    2017-12-01

    A new backscatter lidar forward operator was developed which is based on the distinct calculation of the aerosols' backscatter and extinction properties. The forward operator was adapted to the COSMO-ART ash dispersion simulation of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010. While the particle number concentration was provided as a model output variable, the scattering properties of each individual particle type were determined by dedicated scattering calculations. Sensitivity studies were performed to estimate the uncertainties related to the assumed particle properties. Scattering calculations for several types of non-spherical particles required the usage of T-matrix routines. Due to the distinct calculation of the backscatter and extinction properties of the models' volcanic ash size classes, the sensitivity studies could be made for each size class individually, which is not the case for forward models based on a fixed lidar ratio. Finally, the forward-modeled lidar profiles have been compared to automated ceilometer lidar (ACL) measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively while the attenuated backscatter coefficient was chosen as a suitable physical quantity. As the ACL measurements were not calibrated automatically, their calibration had to be performed using satellite lidar and ground-based Raman lidar measurements. A slight overestimation of the model-predicted volcanic ash number density was observed. Major requirements for future data assimilation of data from ACL have been identified, namely, the availability of calibrated lidar measurement data, a scattering database for atmospheric aerosols, a better representation and coverage of aerosols by the ash dispersion model, and more investigation in backscatter lidar forward operators which calculate the backscatter coefficient directly for each individual aerosol type. The introduced forward operator offers the flexibility to be adapted to a multitude of model systems and measurement setups.

  10. Generation of future high-resolution rainfall time series with a disaggregation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Hannes; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution rainfall data are needed in many fields of hydrology and water resources management. For analyzes of future rainfall condition climate scenarios exist with hourly values of rainfall. However, the direct usage of these data is associated with uncertainties which can be indicated by comparisons of observations and C20 control runs. An alternative is the derivation of changes of rainfall behavior over the time from climate simulations. Conclusions about future rainfall conditions can be drawn by adding these changes to observed time series. A multiplicative cascade model is used in this investigation for the disaggregation of daily rainfall amounts to hourly values. Model parameters can be estimated by REMO rainfall time series (UBA-, BfG- and ENS-realization), based on ECHAM5. Parameter estimation is carried out for C20 period as well as near term and long term future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). Change factors for both future periods are derived by parameter comparisons and added to the parameters estimated from observed time series. This enables the generation of hourly rainfall time series from observed daily values with respect to future changes. The investigation is carried out for rain gauges in Lower Saxony. Generated Time series are analyzed regarding statistical characteristics, e.g. extreme values, event-based (wet spell duration and amounts, dry spell duration, …) and continuum characteristics (average intensity, fraction of dry intervals,…). The generation of the time series is validated by comparing the changes in the statistical characteristics from the REMO data and from the disaggregated data.

  11. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

  12. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution African Low-level Jet (EALLJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The high-resolution models project a strengthening of the EALLJ, but a weakening of the TEJ. Future changes in the EALLJ and TEJ will drive this precipitation system in opposite directions, leading to small or no net changes in precipitation in Ethiopia.

  13. Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, John; Kabir, Zubair; Bennett, Kathleen; Hotchkiss, Joel W; Kee, Frank; Leyland, Alastair H; Davies, Carolyn; Bandosz, Piotr; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia

    2015-01-01

    Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

  14. Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Hughes

    Full Text Available Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI, Republic of Ireland (RoI and Scotland.CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i smoking prevalence and (ii physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84. In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

  15. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  16. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  17. Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2013-01-01

    project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...... strategies can produce, changing the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios visualized showed to outline different planning strategies that could be implemented, creating a more homogenous urban structure targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption. This will lead to less...

  18. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...... variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind...... regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model...

  19. Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

  20. Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Susan; Kidokoro, Toru; Karamchandani, Prakash; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

  1. Implementation of the zooplankton functional response in plankton models: State of the art, recent challenges and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morozov, Andrew; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Cordoleani, Flora

    2012-09-01

    The conventional way of describing grazing in plankton models is based on a zooplankton functional response framework, according to which the consumption rate is computed as the product of a certain function of food (the functional response) and the density/biomass of herbivorous zooplankton. A large amount of literature on experimental feeding reports the existence of a zooplankton functional response in microcosms and small mesocosms, which goes a long way towards explaining the popularity of this framework both in mean-field (e.g. NPZD models) and spatially resolved models. On the other hand, the complex foraging behaviour of zooplankton (feeding cycles) as well as spatial heterogeneity of food and grazer distributions (plankton patchiness) across time and space scales raise questions as to the existence of a functional response of herbivores in vivo. In the current review, we discuss limitations of the ‘classical’ zooplankton functional response and consider possible ways to amend this framework to cope with the complexity of real planktonic ecosystems. Our general conclusion is that although the functional response of herbivores often does not exist in real ecosystems (especially in the form observed in the laboratory), this framework can be rather useful in modelling - but it does need some amendment which can be made based on various techniques of model reduction. We also show that the shape of the functional response depends on the spatial resolution (‘frame’) of the model. We argue that incorporating foraging behaviour and spatial heterogeneity in plankton models would not necessarily require the use of individual based modelling - an approach which is now becoming dominant in the literature. Finally, we list concrete future directions and challenges and emphasize the importance of a closer collaboration between plankton biologists and modellers in order to make further progress towards better descriptions of zooplankton grazing.

  2. Past and future carbon balance of European ecosystems from pollen data and climatic models simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, C.H.; Guiot, J. [Laboratoire de Botanique Historique and Palynologie, CNRS UA 1152, Faculte de St. Jerome, Case 451, 13397 Marseille (France); Van Campo, E. [Laboratoire d` Ecologie Terrestre, UMR 5552 (CNRS-UPS) 13, Avenue du Colonel Roche-BP 4403, 31405 Toulouse (France)

    1998-09-01

    As climate changes, there is considerable uncertainty whether northern hemisphere ecosystems will act as atmospheric CO{sub 2} sinks or sources. Here, we used statistical models calibrated on field measurements, past terrestrial biomes and climates inferred from pollen and future climatic change scenarios simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to investigate the processes controlling past, present and future CO{sub 2} fluxes in the European ecosystems. Our results suggest that climatic change can significantly affect spatial and temporal variations of net primary production and soil respiration, and alter the net ecosystem exchange of CO{sub 2}. Most of the potential terrestrial biomes in Europe will likely change from a net CO{sub 2} sink, which provided a negative feedback for atmospheric CO{sub 2} during the last 13,000 yr BP, to a net CO{sub 2} source, providing a positive feedback following global warming. The results further illustrate that there is no analogue in the recent past (Late Quaternary) for the probable future ecosystem dynamics

  3. Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Bipin Kumar; Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Khanal, Laxman; Naeem, Shahid; Pandit, Shreejana

    2018-01-23

    Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.

  4. Adaption of the LHC cold mass cooling system to the requirements of the Future Circular Collider (FCC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnig, C.; Tavian, L.; Brenn, G.

    2017-12-01

    The cooling of the superconducting magnet cold masses with superfluid helium (He II) is a well-established concept successfully in operation for years in the LHC. Consequently, its application for the cooling of FCC magnets is an obvious option. The 12-kW heat loads distributed over 10-km long sectors not only require an adaption of the magnet bayonet heat exchangers but also present new challenges to the cryogenic plants, the distribution system and the control strategy. This paper recalls the basic LHC cooling concept with superfluid helium and defines the main parameters for the adaption to the FCC requirements. Pressure drop and hydrostatic head are developed in the distribution and pumping systems; their impact on the magnet temperature profile and the corresponding cooling efficiency is presented and compared for different distribution and pumping schemes.

  5. On Early Conflict Identification by Requirements Modeling of Energy System Control Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Gehrke, Oliver; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Control systems are purposeful systems involving goal-oriented information processing (cyber) and technical (physical) structures. Requirements modeling formalizes fundamental concepts and relations of a system architecture at a high-level design stage and can be used to identify potential design...... issues early. For requirements formulation of control structures, cyber and physical aspects need to be jointly represented to express interdependencies, check for consistency and discover potentially conflicting requirements. Early identification of potential conflicts may prevent larger problems...... modeling for early requirements checking using a suitable modeling language, and illustrates how this approach enables the identification of several classes of controller conflict....

  6. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  7. A semi-automated approach for generating natural language requirements documents based on business process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aysolmaz, Banu; Leopold, Henrik; Reijers, Hajo A.; Demirörs, Onur

    2018-01-01

    Context: The analysis of requirements for business-related software systems is often supported by using business process models. However, the final requirements are typically still specified in natural language. This means that the knowledge captured in process models must be consistently

  8. Requirements-level semantics and model checking of object-oriented statecharts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshuis, H.; Jansen, D.N.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we define a requirements-level execution semantics for object-oriented statecharts and show how properties of a system specified by these statecharts can be model checked using tool support for model checkers. Our execution semantics is requirements-level because it uses the perfect

  9. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  11. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  12. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  13. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, K. J.; Bennett, K. D.; Burrough, S. L.; Macias-Fauria, M.; Tovar, C.

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records. PMID:23878343

  14. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

  15. Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

    2017-08-01

    Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

  16. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  17. Ethical guidelines, animal profile, various animal models used in periodontal research with alternatives and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan Kumar Pasupuleti

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Laboratory animal models serve as a facilitator to investigate the etiopathogenesis of periodontal disease, are used to know the efficacy of reconstructive and regenerative procedures, and are also helpful in evaluation of newer therapeutic techniques including laser and implant therapies prior to application in the human beings. The aim of this review is to know the different animal models used in various specialties of dental research and to know the ethical guidelines prior to the usage of experimental models with main emphasis on how to refine, replace, and reduce the number of animal models usage in the laboratory. An online search for experimental animal models used in dental research was performed using MEDLINE/PubMed database. Publications from 2009 to May 2013 in the specialty of periodontics were included in writing this review. A total of 652 references were published in PubMed/MEDLINE databases based on the search terms used. Out of 245 studies, 241 were related to the periodontal research published in English from 2009 to 2013. Relevant papers were chosen according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. After extensive electronic and hand search on animal models, it has been observed that various animal models were used in dental research. Search on animal models used for dental research purpose revealed that various animals such as rats, mice, guinea pigs, rabbit, beagle dogs, goats, and nonhuman primates were extensively used. However, with the new advancement of ex vivo animal models, it has become easy to investigate disease pathogenesis and to test the efficacy of newer therapeutic modalities with the reduced usage of animal models. This review summarized the large amount of literature on animal models used in periodontal research with main emphasis on ethical guidelines and on reducing the animal model usage in future perspective.

  18. Future consumer mobile phone security: A case study using the data-centric security model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Cleeff, A.

    Consumer mobile phone security requires more attention, now that their data storage capacity is increasing. At the same time, much effort is spent on data-centric security for large enterprises. In this article we try to apply data-centric security to consumer mobile phones. We show a maturity model

  19. Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

  20. Pesticides in groundwater: modelling and data analysis of the past, present and future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Binning, Philip John; McKnight, Ursula S.; Malaguerra, Flavio

    Pesticides are the most frequently detected groundwater contaminants in Denmark. However, there is still a great deal of debate about the fate of pesticides and their future occurrence in our environment. We do not really understand the link between past usage and current observations, and are no......Pesticides are the most frequently detected groundwater contaminants in Denmark. However, there is still a great deal of debate about the fate of pesticides and their future occurrence in our environment. We do not really understand the link between past usage and current observations...... to jointly manage our groundwater and surface water resources. Here, observed pesticide data is analyzed and combined with models to address these questions and needs. Groundwater and surface water pesticide observations reflect the fact that these two hydrological components have a strong interaction...

  1. Modelling of Lunar Dust and Electrical Field for Future Lunar Surface Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yunlong

    Modelling of the lunar dust and electrical field is important to future human and robotic activities on the surface of the moon. Apollo astronauts had witnessed the maintaining of micron- and millimeter sized moon dust up to meters level while walked on the surface of the moon. The characterizations of the moon dust would enhance not only the scientific understanding of the history of the moon but also the future technology development for the surface operations on the moon. It has been proposed that the maintaining and/or settlement of the small-sized dry dust are related to the size and weight of the dust particles, the level of the surface electrical fields on the moon, and the impaction and interaction between lunar regolith and the solar particles. The moon dust distributions and settlements obviously affected the safety of long term operations of future lunar facilities. For the modelling of the lunar dust and the electrical field, we analyzed the imaging of the legs of the moon lander, the cover and the footwear of the space suits, and the envelope of the lunar mobiles, and estimated the size and charges associated with the small moon dust particles, the gravity and charging effects to them along with the lunar surface environment. We also did numerical simulation of the surface electrical fields due to the impaction of the solar winds in several conditions. The results showed that the maintaining of meters height of the micron size of moon dust is well related to the electrical field and the solar angle variations, as expected. These results could be verified and validated through future on site and/or remote sensing measurements and observations of the moon dust and the surface electrical field.

  2. ON THE REQUIREMENTS FOR REALISTIC MODELING OF NEUTRINO TRANSPORT IN SIMULATIONS OF CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentz, Eric J.; Mezzacappa, Anthony; Hix, W. Raphael; Messer, O. E. Bronson; Liebendörfer, Matthias; Bruenn, Stephen W.

    2012-01-01

    We have conducted a series of numerical experiments with the spherically symmetric, general relativistic, neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code AGILE-BOLTZTRAN to examine the effects of several approximations used in multidimensional core-collapse supernova simulations. Our code permits us to examine the effects of these approximations quantitatively by removing, or substituting for, the pieces of supernova physics of interest. These approximations include: (1) using Newtonian versus general relativistic gravity, hydrodynamics, and transport; (2) using a reduced set of weak interactions, including the omission of non-isoenergetic neutrino scattering, versus the current state-of-the-art; and (3) omitting the velocity-dependent terms, or observer corrections, from the neutrino Boltzmann kinetic equation. We demonstrate that each of these changes has noticeable effects on the outcomes of our simulations. Of these, we find that the omission of observer corrections is particularly detrimental to the potential for neutrino-driven explosions and exhibits a failure to conserve lepton number. Finally, we discuss the impact of these results on our understanding of current, and the requirements for future, multidimensional models.

  3. How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Sinclair

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species' distributions under future climates to inform management strategies. As government scientists with a responsibility to communicate the best available science to our policy colleagues, we question whether current modeling approaches and outputs are practically useful. Here, we synthesize conceptual problems with species distribution models (SDMs associated with interspecific interactions, dispersal, ecological equilibria and time lags, evolution, and the sampling of niche space. Although projected SDMs have undoubtedly been critical in alerting us to the magnitude of climate change impacts, we conclude that until they offer insights that are more precise than what we can derive from basic ecological theory, we question their utility in deciding how to allocate scarce funds to large-scale conservation projects.

  4. Singularity now: using the ventricular assist device as a model for future human-robotic physiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Archer K

    2016-04-01

    In our 21 st century world, human-robotic interactions are far more complicated than Asimov predicted in 1942. The future of human-robotic interactions includes human-robotic machine hybrids with an integrated physiology, working together to achieve an enhanced level of baseline human physiological performance. This achievement can be described as a biological Singularity. I argue that this time of Singularity cannot be met by current biological technologies, and that human-robotic physiology must be integrated for the Singularity to occur. In order to conquer the challenges we face regarding human-robotic physiology, we first need to identify a working model in today's world. Once identified, this model can form the basis for the study, creation, expansion, and optimization of human-robotic hybrid physiology. In this paper, I present and defend the line of argument that currently this kind of model (proposed to be named "IshBot") can best be studied in ventricular assist devices - VAD.

  5. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  6. Making media work in space: an interdisciplinary perspective on media and communication requirements for current and future space communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babidge, S.; Cokley, J.; Gordon, F.; Louw, E.

    2005-10-01

    As humans expand into space communities will form. These have already begun to form in small ways, such as long-duration missions on the International Space Station and the space shuttle, and small-scale tourist excursions into space. Social, behavioural and communications data emerging from such existing communities in space suggest that the physically-bounded, work-oriented and traditionally male-dominated nature of these extremely remote groups present specific problems for the resident astronauts, groups of them viewed as ‘communities’, and their associated groups who remain on Earth, including mission controllers, management and astronauts’ families. Notionally feminine group attributes such as adaptive competence, social adaptation skills and social sensitivity will be crucial to the viability of space communities and in the absence of gender equity, ‘staying in touch’ by means of ‘news from home’ becomes more important than ever. A template of news and media forms and technologies is suggested to service those needs and enhance the social viability of future terraforming activities.

  7. Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Barry B; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

    2011-07-01

    To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

  8. The agony of choice: different empirical mortality models lead to sharply different future forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bircher, Nicolas; Cailleret, Maxime; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-07-01

    Dynamic models are pivotal for projecting forest dynamics in a changing climate, from the local to the global scale. They encapsulate the processes of tree population dynamics with varying resolution. Yet, almost invariably, tree mortality is modeled based on simple, theoretical assumptions that lack a physiological and/or empirical basis. Although this has been widely criticized and a growing number of empirically derived alternatives are available, they have not been tested systematically in models of forest dynamics. We implemented an inventory-based and a tree-ring-based mortality routine in the forest gap model ForClim v3.0. We combined these routines with a stochastic and a deterministic approach for the determination of tree status (alive vs. dead). We tested the four new model versions for two Norway spruce forests in the Swiss Alps, one of which was managed (inventory time series spanning 72 years) and the other was unmanaged (41 years). Furthermore, we ran long-term simulations (-400 years) into the future under three climate scenarios to test model behavior under changing environmental conditions. The tests against inventory data showed an excellent match of simulated basal area and stem numbers at the managed site and a fair agreement at the unmanaged site for three of the four empirical mortality models, thus rendering the choice of one particular model difficult. However, long-term simulations under current climate revealed very different behavior of the mortality models in terms of simulated changes of basal area and stem numbers, both in timing and magnitude, thus indicating high sensitivity of simulated forest dynamics to assumptions on tree mortality. Our results underpin the potential of using empirical mortality routines in forest gap models. However, further tests are needed that span other climatic conditions and mixed forests. Short-term simulations to benchmark model behavior against empirical data are insufficient; long-term tests are

  9. Meta-Model and UML Profile for Requirements Management of Software and Embedded Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpinen Tero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Software and embedded system companies today encounter problems related to requirements management tool integration, incorrect tool usage, and lack of traceability. This is due to utilized tools with no clear meta-model and semantics to communicate requirements between different stakeholders. This paper presents a comprehensive meta-model for requirements management. The focus is on software and embedded system domains. The goal is to define generic requirements management domain concepts and abstract interfaces between requirements management and system development. This leads to a portable requirements management meta-model which can be adapted with various system modeling languages. The created meta-model is prototyped by translating it into a UML profile. The profile is imported into a UML tool which is used for rapid evaluation of meta-model concepts in practice. The developed profile is associated with a proof of concept report generator tool that automatically produces up-to-date documentation from the models in form of web pages. The profile is adopted to create an example model of embedded system requirement specification which is built with the profile.

  10. STRUCTURAL-FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS COMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE ECONOMIC SPECIALISTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zotova-Sadylo Yelena Yurievna

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose The structural-functional model of professional business communication development of future economic specialists is presented by the author. Its basic components, purpose, function, principles, methods of its practical realization are characterized in the article. Methodology The considered model is aimed at providing advanced and competent levels of professional business communication / cross-cultural business communication of future specialists in economics by means of relevant to the problem special course within a system of humanitarian cycle disciplines, and integrated class hours and extracurricular activity. The main feature of the special course is its integrated character determined by the necessity to synthesize contents of humanitarian cycle disciplines for the purpose of training material comprehensive awareness. Results In this context focused professional extracurricular activity carried out in strict accordance with an overall objective of young specialist training is effective. Successful implementation of structural functional model is possible providing that integrated approach to creative specialists training by means of entire educational and extracurricular activity system.

  11. Double beta decay - physics beyond the standard model now, and in future (Genius)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klapdor-Kleingrothaus, H.V.

    1998-01-01

    Nuclear double beta decay provides an extraordinarily broad potential to search for beyond standard model physics, probing already now the TeV scale, on which new physics should manifest itself. These possibilities are reviewed here. First, the results of present generation experiments are presented. The most sensitive one of them - the Heidelberg-Moscow experiment in the Gran Sasso - probes the electron mass now in the sub eV region and will reach a limit of ∝0.1 eV in a few years. Basing to a large extent on the theoretical work of the Heidelberg double beta group in the last two years, results are obtained also for SUSY models (R-parity breaking, sneutrino mass), leptoquarks (leptoquark-Higgs coupling), compositeness, right-handed W boson mass and others. These results are comfortably competitive to corresponding results from high-energy accelerators like TEVATRON, HERA, etc. Second, future perspectives of ββ research are discussed. A new Heidelberg experimental proposal (GENIUS) is presented which would allow to increase the sensitivity for Majorana neutrino masses from the present level of at best 0.1 eV down to 0.01 or even 0.001 eV. Its physical potential would be a breakthrough into the multi-TeV range for many beyond standard models. Its sensitivity for neutrino oscillation parameters would be larger than of all present terrestrial neutrino oscillation experiments and of those planned for the future. (orig.)

  12. Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

  13. Animal Models of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma-Past, Present, and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, Harit; Lohani, Kush Raj; Lee, Tommy H; Agrawal, Devendra K; Mittal, Sumeet K

    2015-12-01

    Esophageal adenocarcinoma is the fastest rising cancer in the United States. It develops from long-standing gastroesophageal reflux disease which affects >20% of the general population. It carries a very poor prognosis with 5-year survival Animal models can provide a comprehensive functional and anatomic platform for such a study. Rats and mice have been the most widely studied but disease homology with humans has been questioned. No animal model naturally simulates the inflammation to adenocarcinoma progression as in humans, with all models requiring surgical bypass or destruction of existing antireflux mechanisms. Valuable properties of individual models could be utilized to holistically evaluate disease progression. In this review paper, we critically examined the current animal models of Barrett's esophagus, their differences and homologies with human disease and how they have shaped our current understanding of Barrett's carcinogenesis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD): Future role and requirements as viewed by an applied aerodynamicist. [computer systems design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshihara, H.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of designing the wing-fuselage configuration of an advanced transonic commercial airliner and the optimization of a supercruiser fighter are sketched, pointing out the essential fluid mechanical phenomena that play an important role. Such problems suggest that for a numerical method to be useful, it must be able to treat highly three dimensional turbulent separations, flows with jet engine exhausts, and complex vehicle configurations. Weaknesses of the two principal tools of the aerodynamicist, the wind tunnel and the computer, suggest a complementing combined use of these tools, which is illustrated by the case of the transonic wing-fuselage design. The anticipated difficulties in developing an adequate turbulent transport model suggest that such an approach may have to suffice for an extended period. On a longer term, experimentation of turbulent transport in meaningful cases must be intensified to provide a data base for both modeling and theory validation purposes.

  15. Impact resistance of materials for guards on cutting machine tools--requirements in future European safety standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewes, D; Trapp, R P

    2000-01-01

    Guards on machine tools are meant to protect operators from injuries caused by tools, workpieces, and fragments hurled out of the machine's working zone. This article presents the impact resistance requirements, which guards according to European safety standards for machine tools must satisfy. Based upon these standards the impact resistance of different guard materials was determined using cylindrical steel projectiles. Polycarbonate proves to be a suitable material for vision panels because of its high energy absorption capacity. The impact resistance of 8-mm thick polycarbonate is roughly equal to that of a 3-mm thick steel sheet Fe P01. The limited ageing stability, however, makes it necessary to protect polycarbonate against cooling lubricants by means of additional panes on both sides.

  16. Modeling aeolian transport of soil-bound plutonium: considering infrequent but normal environmental disturbances is critical in estimating future dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelotti, Erika A.; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Eisele, William F.; Breshears, David D.; Kirchner, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Dose assessments typically consider environmental systems as static through time, but environmental disturbances such as drought and fire are normal, albeit infrequent, events that can impact dose-influential attributes of many environmental systems. These phenomena occur over time frames of decades or longer, and are likely to be exacerbated under projected warmer, drier climate. As with other types of dose assessment, the impacts of environmental disturbances are often overlooked when evaluating dose from aeolian transport of radionuclides and other contaminants. Especially lacking are predictions that account for potential changing vegetation cover effects on radionuclide transport over the long time frames required by regulations. A recently developed dynamic wind-transport model that included vegetation succession and environmental disturbance provides more realistic long-term predictability. This study utilized the model to estimate emission rates for aeolian transport, and compare atmospheric dispersion and deposition rates of airborne plutonium-contaminated soil into neighboring areas with and without environmental disturbances. Specifically, the objective of this study was to utilize the model results as input for a widely used dose assessment model (CAP-88). Our case study focused on low levels of residual plutonium found in soils from past operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), in Los Alamos, NM, located in the semiarid southwestern USA. Calculations were conducted for different disturbance scenarios based on conditions associated with current climate, and a potential future drier and warmer climate. Known soil and sediment concentrations of plutonium were used to model dispersal and deposition of windblown residual plutonium, as a function of distance and direction. Environmental disturbances that affected vegetation cover included ground fire, crown fire, and drought, with reoccurrence rates for current climate based on site historical

  17. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  18. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  19. Combined statistical and spatially distributed hydrological model for evaluating future drought indices in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunwoo Kang

    2017-08-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.

  20. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  1. Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005

  2. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    developed by the National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. During 2010, the USGS used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to create a hydrologic model for the Lake Michigan Basin to assess the probable effects of climate change on future groundwater and surface-water resources. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) model and the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) program also were used to support USGS GLRI projects that required estimates of streamflows throughout the Great Lakes Basin. This information on existing watershed models, along with an assessment of geologic, soils, and land-use data across the Great Lakes Basin and the identification of problems that exist in selected tributary watersheds that could be addressed by a watershed model, was used to identify three watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin for future modeling by the USGS. These watersheds are the Kalamazoo River Basin in Michigan, the Tonawanda Creek Basin in New York, and the Bad River Basin in Wisconsin. These candidate watersheds have hydrogeologic, land-type, and soil characteristics that make them distinct from each other, but that are representative of other tributary watersheds within the Great Lakes Basin. These similarities in the characteristics among nearby watersheds will enhance the usefulness of a model by improving the likelihood that parameter values from a previously modeled watershed could reliably be used in the creation of a model of another watershed in the same region. The software program Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) was selected to simulate the hydrologic, sedimentary, and water-quality processes in these selected watersheds. HSPF is a versatile, process-based, continuous-simulation model that has been used extensively by the scientific community, has the ongoing technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and USGS, and provides a means to evaluate the

  3. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stocholm (Sweden)); Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  4. Requirement for Serratia marcescens Cytolysin in a Murine Model of Hemorrhagic Pneumonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Juarbe, Norberto; Mares, Chris A.; Hinojosa, Cecilia A.; Medina, Jorge L.; Cantwell, Angelene; Dube, Peter H.; Bergman, Molly A.

    2014-01-01

    Serratia marcescens, a member of the carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, is an important emerging pathogen that causes a wide variety of nosocomial infections, spreads rapidly within hospitals, and has a systemic mortality rate of ≤41%. Despite multiple clinical descriptions of S. marcescens nosocomial pneumonia, little is known regarding the mechanisms of bacterial pathogenesis and the host immune response. To address this gap, we developed an oropharyngeal aspiration model of lethal and sublethal S. marcescens pneumonia in BALB/c mice and extensively characterized the latter. Lethal challenge (>4.0 × 106 CFU) was characterized by fulminate hemorrhagic pneumonia with rapid loss of lung function and death. Mice challenged with a sublethal dose (<2.0 × 106 CFU) rapidly lost weight, had diminished lung compliance, experienced lung hemorrhage, and responded to the infection with extensive neutrophil infiltration and histopathological changes in tissue architecture. Neutrophil extracellular trap formation and the expression of inflammatory cytokines occurred early after infection. Mice depleted of neutrophils were exquisitely susceptible to an otherwise nonlethal inoculum, thereby demonstrating the requirement for neutrophils in host protection. Mutation of the genes encoding the cytolysin ShlA and its transporter ShlB resulted in attenuated S. marcescens strains that failed to cause profound weight loss, extended illness, hemorrhage, and prolonged lung pathology in mice. This study describes a model of S. marcescens pneumonia that mimics known clinical features of human illness, identifies neutrophils and the toxin ShlA as a key factors important for defense and infection, respectively, and provides a solid foundation for future studies of novel therapeutics for this important opportunistic pathogen. PMID:25422267

  5. Future planetary X-ray and gamma-ray remote sensing system and in situ requirements for room temperature solid state detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Trombka, J I; Starr, R; Clark, P E; Floyd, S R

    1999-01-01

    X-Ray and gamma-ray remote sensing observations find important applications in the study of the development of the planets. Orbital measurements can be carried out on solar-system bodies whose atmospheres and trapped radiation environments do not interfere significantly with the emissions. Elemental compositions can be inferred from observations of these line emissions. Future planetary missions also will involve landing both stationery and roving probes on planetary surfaces. Both X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers will be used for performing elemental analysis of surface samples. These future planetary missions will impose a number of constraints: the flight instruments must be significantly reduced in weight from those previously flown; for many missions, gravity assist will be required, greatly increasing mission duration, resulting in the passage of several years before the first scientific measurement of a solar system body. The detector systems must operate reliably after years of cosmic-ray irradiation...

  6. Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

    2016-04-01

    Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models

  7. Linking nitrogen deposition to nitrate concentrations in groundwater below nature areas : modelling approach and data requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonten, L.T.C.; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P.; Wieggers, H.J.J.; Vries, de W.; Pul, van W.A.J.; Hoek, van den K.W.

    2009-01-01

    This study determines the most suitable model and required model improvements to link atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other elements in the Netherlands to measurements of nitrogen and other elements in the upper groundwater. The deterministic model SMARTml was found to be the most suitable

  8. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  9. The Structural Model of Future Employees̕ Personal and Professional Self-Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanna G. Garanina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the main purpose of this paper is to present the theoretical and practical aspects of professional and personal self-development of future professionals, the construction of the structural model and the determination of levels of self-development. The study of personal and professional self-development attributes of future professionals is of special interest to modern researchers, as well as for practicing psychologists studying the problem of self-realization and self-improvement in their professional fields. This article discusses the theoretical approaches to the study of the model and structure of personal and professional self- development. It analyses the results of the comparative empirical study of the features of students self-development with various levels of formation of motivational-semantic sphere. The authors carried out the detailed theoretical analysis of the problem of personal and professional self-development. They offer the structural model of the process, including the set of interrelated value-semantic, reflexive and regulatory components. The study revealed that the personal and professional self-development is a comprehensive system based on the active personal transformation being carried out in the course of behavior and activities self-regulation of their behavior, designed to achieve personal and professional goals. Materials and Methods: diagnostic methods were used to identify the level of self-development and personal qualities of students. Processing of the data was carried out by means of correlation, factor and cluster analysis. Results: this article considers the results of the empirical study conducted with the help of psycho-diagnostic methods aimed at identifying the level of self-development of future professionals, its structure and features. The scientifically valid results are obtained, allowing to identify the levels of self-development of students as well as to identify factors af

  10. Modeling future demand for energy resources: A study of residential electricity usage in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilagupta, Prapassara

    1999-12-01

    Thailand has a critical need for effective long-term energy planning because of the country's rapidly increasing energy consumption. In this study, the demand for electricity by the residential sector is modeled using a framework that provides detailed estimates of the timing and spatial distribution of changes in energy demand. A population model was developed based on the Cohort-Component method to provide estimates of population by age, sex and urban/non-urban residency in each province. A residential electricity end user model was developed to estimate future electricity usage in urban and non-urban households of the seventy-six provinces in Thailand during the period 1999--2019. Key variables in this model include population, the number of households, family household size, and characteristics of eleven types of electric household appliance such as usage intensity, input power, and saturation rate. The methodology employed in this study is a trending method which utilizes expert opinion to estimate future variables based on a percentage change from the most current value. This study shows that from 1994 to 2019 Thailand will experience an increase in population from 55.4 to 83.6 million. Large percentage population increases will take place in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakarn, Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi. At a national level, the residential electricity consumption will increase from approximately 19,000 to 8 1,000 GWh annually. Consumption in non-urban households will be larger than in urban households, with respective annual increases of 8.0% and 6.2% in 2019. The percent increase of the average annual electricity consumption will be four times the average annual percent population increase. Increased electricity demand is largely a function of increased population and increased demand for high-energy appliances such as air conditioners. In 1994, air conditioning was responsible for xx% of total residential electricity demand. This study estimates that in

  11. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  12. Past, present and future of the pathophysiological model of the basal ganglia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose A Obeso

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The current model of basal ganglia was introduced two decades ago and has settled most of our current understanding of basal ganglia function and dysfunction. Extensive research efforts have been carried out in recent years leading to further refinement and understanding of the normal and diseased basal ganglia. Several questions, however, are yet to be resolved. This short review provides a synopsis of the evolution of thought regarding the pathophysiological model of the BG and summarizes the main recent findings and additions to this field of research. We have also tried to identify major challenges that need to be addressed and resolved in the near future. Detailed accounts and state-of-the-art developments concerning research on the basal ganglia are provided in the articles that make up this Special Issue.

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Lunar Laser Ranging Tests of Gravitational Theory: Modeling and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James G.; Turyshev, Slava; Dickey, Jean O.

    2003-01-01

    Accurate analysis of precision ranges to the Moon have provided several tests of gravitational theory: the equivalence principle, geodetic precession, PPN parameters beta and gamma, and the constancy of the gravitational constant G. Other possible tests include the inverse square law at 20,000 km length scales and the PPN parameter 1. The uncertainties of these tests have decreased as data accuracies have improved and data time span has lengthened. We are exploring the modeling improvements necessary to proceed from cm to mm range accuracies. Looking to future exploration, what characteristics are desired for the next generation of ranging devices, what fundamental questions can be investigated, and what are the challenges for modeling and data analysis?

  14. A Realistically Perturbed Atmosphere and Ocean De-Aliasing Model for Future Gravity Mission Simulation Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Forootan, Ehsan; Bergmann-Wolf, Inga; Neumayer, Karl-Hans; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten; Kusche, Jürgen; Flechtner, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Recently completed performance studies of future gravity mission concepts arrived at sometimes contradicting conclusions about the importance of non-tidal aliasing errors that remain in the finally retrieved gravity field time-series. In those studies, typically a fraction of the differences between two different models of atmosphere and ocean mass variability determined the magnitude of the aliasing errors. Since differences among arbitrary pairs of the numerical models available might lead to widely different aliasing errors and thus conclusions regarding limiting error contributors of a candidate mission, we present here for the first time a version of a realistically perturbed de-aliasing model that is consistent with the updated ESA Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies (Dobslaw et al., 2015). The error model is available over the whole 12-year period of the ESA ESM and consists of two parts: (i) a component containing signals from physical processes that are intentionally omitted from de-aliasing models, as for a example, variations in global eustatic sea-level; and (ii) a series of true errors that consist of in total five different components with realistically re-scaled variability at both small and large spatial scales for different frequency bands ranging from sub-daily to sub-monthly periods. Based on a multi-model ensemble of atmosphere and ocean mass variability available to us for the year 2006, we will demonstrate that our re-scaled true errors have plausible magnitudes and correlation characteristics in all frequency bands considered. The realism of the selected scaling coefficients for periods between 1 and 30 days is tested further by means of a variance component estimation based on the constrained daily GRACE solution series ITSG-GRACE2014. Initial full-scale simulation experiments are used to re-assess the relative importance of non-tidal de-aliasing errors for the GRACE-FO mission, which might be subsequently expanded to

  15. Modelling street level PM10 concentrations across Europe: source apportionment and possible futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Terrenoire, E.; Fagerli, H.; Nyiri, A.; Amann, M.

    2015-02-01

    Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter EU air quality limit values in 2009. As a validation, we compare modelled trends in the period 2000-2008 to observations, which are well reproduced. The modelling scheme is applied here to quantify explicitly source contributions to ambient concentrations at several critical monitoring stations, displaying the differences in spatial origin and chemical composition of urban roadside PM10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent.

  16. Pediatric Fear-Avoidance Model of Chronic Pain: Foundation, Application and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon JG Asmundson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The fear-avoidance model of chronic musculoskeletal pain has become an increasingly popular conceptualization of the processes and mechanisms through which acute pain can become chronic. Despite rapidly growing interest and research regarding the influence of fear-avoidance constructs on pain-related di