European utilities requirements for future reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roch, M.

1996-01-01

The prospect for future nuclear power plants has led the utilities of seven European countries to launch an effort to define the requirements that should be common to all utilities for the next reactors to be built in Europe. These requirements will ultimately be part of a four-volume document and will cover all aspects of a plant: performance, grid connection, codes and standards, materials, quality assurance, cost, and, of course, safety. The seven European countries - France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium - issued revision A of Vols 1 and 2 in Nov. 1994, which deal with all the general requirements, not specific to any design, originally issued in March 1994. Comments were requested from most of the nuclear utilities as well as from reactor vendors worldwide. This gave rise to an enormous number of comments, which were duly considered by the European Union. The relevant ones were incorporated into revision B of Vols. 1 and 2, which was issued in Nov 1995, the objective of this revision B being essentially to gain approval from the safety authorities. A particular aspect of the European approach resides in the fact that these European requirements will have to be discussed and agreed on by at least nine safety authorities, i.e., the authorities of the seven counties that launched revision B, plus the authorities of two newcomers, Finland and Sweden, which have just applied for European Union membership

High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

2013-04-01

Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

Required experimental accuracy to select between supersymmetrical models

Science.gov (United States)

Grellscheid, David

2004-03-01

We will present a method to decide a priori whether various supersymmetrical scenarios can be distinguished based on sparticle mass data alone. For each model, a scan over all free SUSY breaking parameters reveals the extent of that model's physically allowed region of sparticle-mass-space. Based on the geometrical configuration of these regions in mass-space, it is possible to obtain an estimate of the required accuracy of future sparticle mass measurements to distinguish between the models. We will illustrate this algorithm with an example. This talk is based on work done in collaboration with B C Allanach (LAPTH, Annecy) and F Quevedo (DAMTP, Cambridge).

Requirements for user interaction support in future CACE environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, M.

1994-01-01

Based on a review of user interaction modes and the specific needs of the CACE domain the paper describes requirements for user interaction in future CACE environments. Taking another look at the design process in CACE key areas in need of more user interaction support are pointed out. Three...

The Model of Formation of Professional Competence of Future Software Engineers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Sedov

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The rapid technological development of modern society fundamentally changes processes of production, communication and services. There is a great demand for specialists who are competent in recently emerged industries. Moreover, the gap between scientific invention and its wide distribution and consumption has significantly reduced. Therefore, we face an urgent need for preparation of specialists in higher education that meet the requirements of modern society and labour market. Particularly relevant is the issue of training of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree, which is the level of education that trains not only professionals, but also scientists and university teachers. The article presents a developed model of formation of professional competence of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree. The model comprises units of training of future software engineers, identifies methodological approaches, a number of general didactic and methodological principles that underpin learning processes in higher education. It describes methods, forms of organization and means that are used in the system of master’s degree, and also provides pedagogical conditions of effective implementation of the model. The developed model addresses the issue of individualization, intensification and optimization of studying. While developing the model, special attention was paid to updating the content of education and searching for new organizational forms of training of future software engineers.

Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, Perry

2006-01-01

Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

State of the Art : Integrated Management of Requirements in Model-Based Software Engineering

OpenAIRE

Thörn, Christer

2006-01-01

This report describes the background and future of research concerning integrated management of requirements in model-based software engineering. The focus is on describing the relevant topics and existing theoretical backgrounds that form the basis for the research. The report describes the fundamental difficulties of requirements engineering for software projects, and proposes that the results and methods of models in software engineering can help leverage those problems. Taking inspiration...

Modeling future power plant location patterns. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eagles, T.W.; Cohon, J.L.; ReVelle, C.

1979-04-01

The locations of future energy facilities must be specified to assess the potential environmental impact of those facilities. A computer model was developed to generate probable locations for the energy facilities needed to meet postulated future energy requirements. The model is designed to cover a very large geographical region. The regional demand for baseload electric generating capacity associated with a postulated demand growth rate over any desired time horizon is specified by the user as an input to the model. The model uses linear programming to select the most probable locations within the region, based on physical and political factors. The linear program is multi-objective, with four objective functions based on transmission, coal supply, population proximity, and water supply considerations. Minimizing each objective function leads to a distinct set of locations. The user can select the objective function or weighted combination of objective functions most appropriate to his interest. Users with disparate interests can use the model to see the locational changes which result from varying weighting of the objective functions. The model has been implemented in a six-state mid-Atlantic region. The year 2000 was chosen as the study year, and a test scenario postulating 2.25% growth in baseload generating capacity between 1977 and 2000 was chosen. The scenario stipulatedthat this capacity be 50% nuclear and 50% coal-fired. Initial utility reaction indicates the objective based on transmission costs is most important for such a large-scale analysis

Bioenergy crop models: Descriptions, data requirements and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Zhang, Xuesong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Miguez, Fernando [Iowa State University; Izaurralde, Dr. R. Cesar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Dietze, Michael [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Lynd, L. [Dartmouth College; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL

2012-01-01

Field studies that address the production of lignocellulosic biomass as a source of renewable energy provide critical data for the development of bioenergy crop models. A literature survey revealed that 14 models have been used for simulating bioenergy crops including herbaceous and woody bioenergy crops, and for crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) crops. These models simulate field-scale production of biomass for switchgrass (ALMANAC, EPIC, and Agro-BGC), miscanthus (MISCANFOR, MISCANMOD, and WIMOVAC), sugarcane (APSIM, AUSCANE, and CANEGRO), and poplar and willow (SECRETS and 3PG). Two models are adaptations of dynamic global vegetation models and simulate biomass yields of miscanthus and sugarcane at regional scales (Agro-IBIS and LPJmL). Although it lacks the complexity of other bioenergy crop models, the environmental productivity index (EPI) is the only model used to estimate biomass production of CAM (Agave and Opuntia) plants. Except for the EPI model, all models include representations of leaf area dynamics, phenology, radiation interception and utilization, biomass production, and partitioning of biomass to roots and shoots. A few models simulate soil water, nutrient, and carbon cycle dynamics, making them especially useful for assessing the environmental consequences (e.g., erosion and nutrient losses) associated with the large-scale deployment of bioenergy crops. The rapid increase in use of models for energy crop simulation is encouraging; however, detailed information on the influence of climate, soils, and crop management practices on biomass production is scarce. Thus considerable work remains regarding the parameterization and validation of process-based models for bioenergy crops; generation and distribution of high-quality field data for model development and validation; and implementation of an integrated framework for efficient, high-resolution simulations of biomass production for use in planning sustainable bioenergy systems.

Model for future waste generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundqvist, Jan-Olov; Stenmarck, Aasa; Ekvall, Tomas

2010-06-15

The research presented in this report is part of the effort to estimate future Swedish waste quantities in the research programme Towards Sustainable Waste Management. More specifically, we estimate future waste coefficients that are designed to be fed into EMEC, which describes the Swedish economy in terms of 26 industrial sectors, a public sector, and households. Production in the model of industry and public sector requires input of labour, capital, energy, and other commodities. With waste-intensity coefficients added to each production parameter in each sector, EMEC can calculate the future waste quantities generated in different economic scenarios. To produce the waste-intensity coefficients, we make a survey of the current Swedish waste statistics. For each waste category from each sector we estimate whether the quantity depends primarily on the production in the sector, on the inputs of commodities, on the depreciation of capital goods, or on the size of the workforce in the sector. We calculate current waste-intensity coefficients by dividing the waste quantities by the parameter(s) to which they are assigned. We also present five different scenarios to describe how the waste intensity can develop until the year 2030. As far as possible and when deemed to be relevant, we have set the industrial waste generation to depend on the use of a commodity or an energy carrier. The quantity of spent vehicles and most equipment is set to depend on the depreciation of capital goods. Some wastes have been allocated to the staff, for example household waste from business. The quantities of wastes from households have a similar approach where every waste category is assigned to a combination of 26 different commodities

Future CANDU nuclear power plant design requirements document executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Duk Su; Chang, Woo Hyun; Lee, Nam Young; S. A. Usmani

1996-03-01

The future CANDU Requirements Document (FCRED) describes a clear and complete statement of utility requirements for the next generation of CANDU nuclear power plants including those in Korea. The requirements are based on proven technology of PHWR experience and are intended to be consistent with those specified in the current international requirement documents. Furthermore, these integrated set of design requirements, incorporate utility input to the extent currently available and assure a simple, robust and more forgiving design that enhances the performance and safety. The FCRED addresses the entire plant, including the nuclear steam supply system and the balance of the plant, up to the interface with the utility grid at the distribution side of the circuit breakers which connect the switchyard to the transmission lines. Requirements for processing of low level radioactive waste at the plant site and spent fuel storage requirements are included in the FCRED. Off-site waste disposal is beyond the scope of the FCRED. 2 tabs., 1 fig. (Author) .new

Developing a Predictive Model for Unscheduled Maintenance Requirements on United States Air Force Installations

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kovich, Matthew D; Norton, J. D

2008-01-01

.... This paper develops one such method by using linear regression and time series analysis to develop a predictive model to forecast future year man-hour and funding requirements for unscheduled maintenance...

Grid requirements applicable to future NPPs in the new European Electricity Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beato Castro, D.; Padill, C. M.

2000-01-01

With a view to keeping nuclear energy as an option for future power generation in a competitive market and taking advantage of the current operating experience, a group of European electric utilities have come together to define common requirements for the design and supply of future Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants connected to the electrical system. These requirements, defined with the aim of standardizing and adapting design to the conditions of the new electricity framework, are being included in the European Utility Requirements (EUR) document. Although there are different types of power plants operating appropriately in large electrical systems, the idea is to find the minimum requirements that will allow growth of this type of energy in the European electricity industry without reducing quality, safety and reliability of interconnected electrical systems. It is therefore necessary to take into account the features of the existing power systems and the operating characteristics and design of nuclear power plants so as to harmonize their respective technical peculiarities in the framework of the deregulated electricity sector. The definition of these grid requirements is based primarily on the operating conditions of the Union pour la Coordination de la Production et le Transport de L'Electricite (UCPTE) grid and takes into account the current Grid Code of the main European countries, for the forthcoming Issue C. This paper sets outs the most relevant aspects of the grid requirements, included in Chapter 2.3 of the EUR document Grid Requirements, Issue B, for the connection of future nuclear power plants in the European electricity system, and others that are being considered in the preparation of the new issue of the document that will take into account the deregulated electricity market situation and deal with the following aspects: General characteristics. Operation of a plant under normal grid conditions. Operation of a plant under disturbed grid

Safety related requirements on future nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1991-01-01

Nuclear power has the potential to significantly contribute to the future energy supply. However, this requires continuous improvements in nuclear safety. Technological advancements and implementation of safety culture will achieve a safety level for future reactors of the present generation of a probability of core-melt of less than 10 -5 per year, and less than 10 -6 per year for large releases of radioactive materials. There are older reactors which do not comply with present safety thinking. The paper reviews findings of a recent design review of WWER 440/230 plants. Advanced evolutionary designs might be capable of reducing the probability of significant off-site releases to less than 10 -7 per year. For such reactors there are inherent limitations to increase safety further due to the human element, complexity of design and capability of the containment function. Therefore, revolutionary designs are being explored with the aim of eliminating the potential for off-site releases. In this context it seems to be advisable to explore concepts where the ultimate safety barrier is the fuel itself. (orig.) [de

Measured and Modeled Downwelling Far-Infrared Radiances in Very Dry Environments and Calibration Requirements for Future Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Mast, J. C.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Cageao, R.; Kratz, D. P.; Latvakoski, H.; Johnson, D. G.; Mlawer, E. J.; Turner, D. D.

2016-12-01

Downwelling radiances measured by the Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument in an environment with integrated precipitable water as low as 0.03 cm are compared with calculated spectra in the far-infrared and mid-infrared. In its current ground-based configuration FIRST was deployed to 5.38 km on Cerro Toco, a mountain in the Atacama Desert of Chile, from August to October 2009. There FIRST took part in the Radiative Heating in Unexplored Bands Campaign Part 2. Water vapor and temperature profiles from an optimal-estimation-based physical retrieval algorithm (using simultaneous radiosonde and multichannel 183 GHz microwave radiometer measurements) are input to the AER Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to compute radiances for comparison with FIRST. The AER v3.4 line parameter database is used. The low water vapor amounts and relatively cold atmosphere result in extremely small far-IR radiances (1.5 mW/m2/sr/cm-1) with corresponding brightness temperatures of 120 K. The residual LBLRTM minus FIRST is calculated to assess agreement between the measured and modeled spectra. Uncertainties in both the measured and modeled radiances are accounted for in the comparison. A goal of the deployment and subsequent analysis is the assessment of water vapor spectroscopy in the far-infrared and mid-infrared. While agreement is found between measured and modeled radiances within the combined uncertainties across all spectra, uncertainties in the measured water vapor profiles and from the laboratory calibration exceed those associated with water vapor spectroscopy in this very low radiance environment. Consequently, no improvement in water vapor spectroscopy is afforded by these measurements. However, we use these results to place requirements on instrument calibration accuracy and water vapor profile accuracy for future campaigns to similarly dry environments. Instrument calibration uncertainty needs to be at 2% (1-sigma) of measured radiance

Engineering the future of military tactical vehicles and systems with modeling and simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Loew, Matthew; Watters, Brock

2005-05-01

Stewart & Stevenson has developed a Modeling and Simulation approach based on Systems Engineering principles for the development of future military vehicles and systems. This approach starts with a requirements analysis phase that captures and distills the design requirements into a list of parameterized values. A series of executable engineering models are constructed to allow the requirements to be transformed into systems with definable architectures with increasing levels of fidelity. Required performance parameters are available for importation into a variety of modeling and simulation tools including PTC Pro/ENGINEER (for initial engineering models, mechanisms, packaging, and detailed 3-Dimensional solid models), LMS International Virtual.Lab Motion (for vehicle dynamics and ride analysis) and AVL Cruise (Powertrain simulations). Structural analysis and optimization (performed in ANSYS, Pro/MECHANICA, and Altair OptiStruct) is based on the initial geometry from Pro/ENGINEER. Spreadsheets are used for requirements analysis, design documentation and first-order studies. Collectively, these models serve as templates for all design activities. Design variables initially studied within a simplified system model can be cascaded down as the new requirements for a sub-system model. By utilizing this approach premature decisions on systems architectures can be avoided. Ultimately, the systems that are developed are optimally able to meet the requirements by utilizing this top-down approach. Additionally, this M&S approach is seen as a life-cycle tool useful in initially assisting with project management activities through the initial and detail design phases and serves as a template for testing and validation/verification activities. Furthermore, because of the multi-tiered approach, there is natural re-use possible with the models as well.

Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Consequences for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components due to future requirements in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hans-Joachim, Frank

2001-01-01

In the frame of European harmonization, a lot of changes on requirements for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components have been performed. Differed organizations are involved in preparing future requirements for nuclear application. On one side the French German cooperation on the development of EPR. At the origin of this project was the common decision in 1989 of Framatome and Siemens to cooperate through NPI, to design the Nuclear Island, which meets the future needs of utilities. EDF and a group of the main German Utilities joined this cooperation in 1991 and since then they have been totally involved to the progress of the work. In addition, all the process was backed up to the end by the strong cooperation between the French and the German. Safety Authorities, which have a long lasting cooperation to define common requirements, which have to be applied to future Nuclear Power Plants. Furthermore an organization has been set up to elaborate common codes related to the EPR design, at the level of the French design and construction rules (RCC) or the German KTA safety standards, the so-called EPR technical codes (ETC). On the other side, the European utilities co-operate on a much broader basis for the establishment of European Utilities Requirements (EUR). These requirements are prepared by a group of European utilities that represent the major European electricity generating companies that are determined to keep the nuclear option open. The technical requirements specified in the EUR document define the boundaries in which future plants need to be designed in order to be acceptable for the needs of the utilities and in order to fulfill the basic requirements of competitive power generation costs and licensability in all countries represented in the EUR group. All the new requirements have to be applied by designer and manufacturer. Siemens /SNP act as a designer of a lot of various vessels and tanks, heat exchangers and other items of process

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

On meeting capital requirements with a chance-constrained optimization model.

Science.gov (United States)

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yu, Bo; Gu, Lanlan

2016-01-01

This paper deals with a capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model in the presence of loans, treasury bill, fixed assets and non-interest earning assets. To model the dynamics of loans, we introduce a modified CreditMetrics approach. This leads to development of a deterministic convex counterpart of capital to risk asset ratio chance constraint. We pursue the scope of analyzing our model under the worst-case scenario i.e. loan default. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying numerical procedures, in order to administer valuable insights from a financial outlook. Our results suggest that, our capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model guarantees banks of meeting capital requirements of Basel III with a likelihood of 95 % irrespective of changes in future market value of assets.

Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

2014-01-01

Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

Management models for the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonker, Jan; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær

2007-01-01

aspect of the company's operations such as processes; others are based on a holistic view of the organisation. This paper is based on a book project (2006-2007) entitled "Management Models for the Future" (Springer Verlag, Heidelberg - Germany) aiming to harvest twelve new company-based models from......In the last decades a growing number of generic management models (e.g. EFQM, INK, ISO 9000:2000) has emerged. All these models are based on the ambition to stipulate the road to conventional and contemporary forms of organizational excellence. Some of the models aim to do so with regard to one...

Future Irrigation Requirement of Rice Under Irrigated Area - Uncertainty through GCMs and Crop Models : A Case Study of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

Science.gov (United States)

Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. G.; Porter, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Panwar, A. S.

2017-12-01

Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), the food basket of South Asia, characterised by predominantly cereal-based farming systems where livestock is an integral part of farm economy. Climate change is projected to have significant effects on agriculture production and hence on food and livelihood security because more than 90 per cent farmers fall under small and marginal category. The rising temperatures and uncertainties in rainfall associated with global warming may have serious direct and indirect impacts on crop production. A loss of 10-40% crop production is predicted in different crops in India by the end of this century by different researchers. Cereal crops (mainly rice and wheat) are crucial to ensuring the food security in the region, but sustaining their productivity has become a major challenge due to climate variability and uncertainty. Under AgMIP Project, we have analysed the climate change impact on farm level productivity of rice at Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh using 29 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during mid-century period 2041-2070. Two crop simulation models DSSAT4.6 and APSIM7.7 were used for impact study. There is lot of uncertainty in yield level by different GCMs and crop models. Under RCP4.5, APSIM showed a declining yield up to 14.5 % while DSSAT showed a declining yield level of 6.5 % only compared to the baseline (1980-2010). However, out of 29 GCMs, 15 GCMs showed negative impact and 14 showed positive impact under APSIM while it showed 21 and 8 GCMs, respectively in the case of DSSAT. DSSAT and APSIM simulated irrigation water requirement in future of the order of 645±75 mm and 730±107 mm, respectively under RCP4.5. However, the same will be of the order of 626 ± 99 mm and 749 ± 147 mm, respectively under RCP8.5. Projected irrigation water productivity showed a range of 4.87-12.15 kg ha-1 mm-1 and 6.77-12.63 kg ha-1 mm-1 through APSIM and DSSAT, respectively under RCP4.5, which stands an average of 7.81 and 8.53 kg ha-1 mm-1 during the

Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Horvath, John; Ross, Jonathan M

1997-01-01

.... The purpose of the analysis was two fold: 1. To describe the requirements of a competitive, future-oriented computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing/computer-integrated management (CAD/CAMYCIM...

Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

Virtual Modeling for Cities of the Future. State-Of Art and Virtual Modeling for Cities of the Future. State-Of Art AN

Science.gov (United States)

Valencia, J.; Muñoz-Nieto, A.; Rodriguez-Gonzalvez, P.

2015-02-01

3D virtual modeling, visualization, dissemination and management of urban areas is one of the most exciting challenges that must face geomatics in the coming years. This paper aims to review, compare and analyze the new technologies, policies and software tools that are in progress to manage urban 3D information. It is assumed that the third dimension increases the quality of the model provided, allowing new approaches to urban planning, conservation and management of architectural and archaeological areas. Despite the fact that displaying 3D urban environments is an issue nowadays solved, there are some challenges to be faced by geomatics in the coming future. Displaying georeferenced linked information would be considered the first challenge. Another challenge to face is to improve the technical requirements if this georeferenced information must be shown in real time. Are there available software tools ready for this challenge? Are they useful to provide services required in smart cities? Throughout this paper, many practical examples that require 3D georeferenced information and linked data will be shown. Computer advances related to 3D spatial databases and software that are being developed to convert rendering virtual environment to a new enriched environment with linked information will be also analyzed. Finally, different standards that Open Geospatial Consortium has assumed and developed regarding the three-dimensional geographic information will be reviewed. Particular emphasis will be devoted on KML, LandXML, CityGML and the new IndoorGML.

Future requirements for petroleum fuels - an environmental perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, R.

1998-01-01

The environmental impacts of fuel emissions were discussed. Emissions from petroleum fuels are the largest contributor to a wide range of environmental problems including damage to the ozone layer and risks to human health. Forecasts indicate that future demand for fossil fuels for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector is the largest single source of air emissions in Canada. The environmental requirements for all fuels will become progressively more stringent. The pollutants of primary concern include toxics, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulates. The U.S. auto-oil research program has conducted considerable research to understand the impact of fuel parameters of vehicle tailpipe emissions. In Canada, lead was removed from Canadian gas a decade ago. Since January 1998, low sulphur diesel (less than 500 ppm) is required for on-road use. Regulations have also been passed to reduce the level of benzene in gasoline to less than one per cent by mid-1999. It will be necessary to manage our fossil fuels to minimize the environmental impacts from combustion. In the longer term, it will be necessary to minimize fossil fuel use through conservation and shift to less polluting fuels

Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acharjee, Tapos Kumar; Ludwig, Fulco; Halsema, van Gerardo; Hellegers, Petra; Supit, Iwan

2017-01-01

Understanding future changes in crop water requirements and irrigation demand in the context of climate change is essential for long-term water resources management and agricultural planning. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on future water requirements of dry season Boro

Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

2016-01-01

This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

Future of business models in manufacturing

OpenAIRE

Seidel, Johannes; Barquet, Ana-Paula; Seliger, Günther; Kohl, Holger

2017-01-01

In order to achieve systematic change in pursuit of sustainable manufacturing, both a strategic long-term perspective employing methods from future studies and a concrete implementation of the knowledge gained in sustainable business models are necessary. In this chapter, the concepts and exemplary methods for sustainable business model innovation are introduced with a special focus on sustainable manufacturing. Circular Economy-based business models and Product Service Systems are explained ...

Modeling of the global carbon cycle - isotopic data requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciais, P.

1994-01-01

Isotopes are powerful tools to constrain carbon cycle models. For example, the combinations of the CO 2 and the 13 C budget allows to calculate the net-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Observations of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon allow to estimate gross carbon exchange fluxes between different reservoirs and to deduce time scales of carbon overturning in important reservoirs. 18 O in CO 2 is potentially a tool to make the deconvolution of C fluxes within the land biosphere (assimilation vs respirations). The scope of this article is to identify gaps in our present knowledge about isotopes in the light of their use as constraint for the global carbon cycle. In the following we will present a list of some future data requirements for carbon cycle models. (authors)

Detecting Chemical Weapons: Threats, Requirements, Solutions, and Future Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Boso, Brian

2011-03-01

Although chemicals have been reportedly used as weapons for thousands of years, it was not until 1915 at Ypres, France that an industrial chemical, chlorine, was used in World War I as an offensive weapon in significant quantity, causing mass casualties. From that point until today the development, detection, production and protection from chemical weapons has be an organized endeavor of many of the world's armed forces and in more recent times, non-governmental terrorist organizations. The number of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWAs) has steadily increased as research into more toxic substances continued for most of the 20 th century. Today there are over 70 substances including harassing agents like tear gas, incapacitating agents, and lethal agents like blister, blood, chocking, and nerve agents. The requirements for detecting chemical weapons vary depending on the context in which they are encountered and the concept of operation of the organization deploying the detection equipment. The US DoD, for example, has as a requirement, that US forces be able to continue their mission, even in the event of a chemical attack. This places stringent requirements on detection equipment. It must be lightweight (developed for this application, including, but not limited to: mass spectroscopy, IR spectroscopy, RAMAN spectroscopy, MEMs micro-cantilever sensors, surface acoustic wave sensors, differential mobility spectrometry, and amplifying fluorescence polymers. In the future the requirements for detection equipment will continue to become even more stringent. The continuing increase in the sheer number of threats that will need to be detected, the development of binary agents requiring that even the precursor chemicals be detected, the development of new types of agents unlike any of the current chemistries, and the expansion of the list of toxic industrial chemical will require new techniques with higher specificity and more sensitivity.

Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. F. Wright

2003-01-01

occurred over the past 20 years. The recovery of ANC was predicted to be incomplete. Even after the CLE scenario (for future acid deposition is implemented, the chemical conditions in about one-third of the lakes were predicted to be insufficient to support trout populations in the future. Thus, additional measures will be required if these lakes are to be restored. Keywords: acid deposition, lakes, model, Norway, recovery

From requirements to Java in a snap model-driven requirements engineering in practice

CERN Document Server

Smialek, Michal

2015-01-01

This book provides a coherent methodology for Model-Driven Requirements Engineering which stresses the systematic treatment of requirements within the realm of modelling and model transformations. The underlying basic assumption is that detailed requirements models are used as first-class artefacts playing a direct role in constructing software. To this end, the book presents the Requirements Specification Language (RSL) that allows precision and formality, which eventually permits automation of the process of turning requirements into a working system by applying model transformations and co

Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

Employers’ Perspectives on Future Roles and Skills Requirements for Australian Health Librarians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheryl Hamill

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Objective – This study, which comprises one stage of a larger project (ALIA/HLA Workforce and Education Research Project, aimed to discover employers’ views on how (or whether health librarians assist in achieving the mission-critical goals of their organizations; how health librarians contribute to the organization now and into the future; and what are the current and future skills requirements of health librarians.Methods – Each member of the project group approached between one and five individuals known to them to generate a convenience sample of 22 employers of health librarians. There were 15 semi-structured interviews conducted between October and November 2010 with employers in the hospital, academic, government, private, consumer health and not-for-profit sectors. The interview schedule was sent to each interviewee prior to the interview so that they had time to consider their responses. The researchers wrote up the interview notes using the interview schedule and submitted them to the principal researcher, who combined the data into one document. Content analysis of the data was used to identify major themes.Results – Employers expressed a clear sense of respect for the roles and responsibilities of library staff in their organizations. Areas of practice such as education and training, scientific research and clinical support were highlighted as critical for the future. Current areas of practice such as using technology and systems to manage information, providing information services to meet user needs and management of health information resources in a range of formats were identified as remaining highly relevant for the future. There was potential for health librarians to play a more active and strategic role in their organizations, and to repackage their traditional skill sets for anticipated future roles. Interpersonal skills and the role of health librarians as the interface between clinicians and information technology

Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

2015-01-01

With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

Investigation of Vehicle Requirements and Options for Future Space Tourism

Science.gov (United States)

Olds, John R.

2001-01-01

The research in support of this grant was performed by the PI, Dr. John Olds, and graduate students in the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at Georgia Tech over the period December 1999 to December 2000. The work was sponsored by Dr. Ted Talay, branch chief of the Vehicle Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the project was to examine the characteristics of future space tourism markets and to identify the vehicle requirements that are necessary to enable this emerging new business segment.

Section XI ASME B and PV CODE, future trends, nondestructive examination requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowfer, C.D.

1984-01-01

Service Induced Flaws such as intergranular stress corrosion cracking, Round Robin Programs like PISC II, and related developments in UT methodology and signal processing the past one to two years will have major impact on the Code and future NDE requirements. The performance of NDE has become a high exposure item which demands high reliability and accuracy; terms generally not used with field NDE in the past. The trend is out of ''cookbook'' requirements and into performance demonstration for personnel, procedures and equipment. This paper highlights the current major transition in the Code regarding NDE performance from the viewpoint of the author's involvement

Requirements Modeling with Agent Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Dasgupta, Aniruddha; Krishna, Aneesh; Ghose, Aditya K.

Agent-oriented conceptual modeling notations are highly effective in representing requirements from an intentional stance and answering questions such as what goals exist, how key actors depend on each other, and what alternatives must be considered. In this chapter, we review an approach to executing i* models by translating these into set of interacting agents implemented in the CASO language and suggest how we can perform reasoning with requirements modeled (both functional and non-functional) using i* models. In this chapter we particularly incorporate deliberation into the agent design. This allows us to benefit from the complementary representational capabilities of the two frameworks.

Availability modeling approach for future circular colliders based on the LHC operation experience

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2096726; Apollonio, Andrea; Gutleber, Johannes; Sollander, Peter; Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Virtanen, Seppo Johannes

2016-01-01

Reaching the challenging integrated luminosity production goals of a future circular hadron collider (FCC-hh) and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) requires a thorough understanding of today’s most powerful high energy physics research infrastructure, the LHC accelerator complex at CERN. FCC-hh, a 4 times larger collider ring aims at delivering 10–20  ab$^-$$^1$ of integrated luminosity at 7 times higher collision energy. Since the identification of the key factors that impact availability and cost is far from obvious, a dedicated activity has been launched in the frame of the future circular collider study to develop models to study possible ways to optimize accelerator availability. This paper introduces the FCC reliability and availability study, which takes a fresh new look at assessing and modeling reliability and availability of particle accelerator infrastructures. The paper presents a probabilistic approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the machine operational cycle, schedule and availability for p...

Specification of advanced safety modeling requirements (Rev. 0).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fanning, T. H.; Tautges, T. J.

2008-06-30

The U.S. Department of Energy's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership has lead to renewed interest in liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors for the purpose of closing the nuclear fuel cycle and making more efficient use of future repository capacity. However, the U.S. has not designed or constructed a fast reactor in nearly 30 years. Accurate, high-fidelity, whole-plant dynamics safety simulations will play a crucial role by providing confidence that component and system designs will satisfy established design limits and safety margins under a wide variety of operational, design basis, and beyond design basis transient conditions. Current modeling capabilities for fast reactor safety analyses have resulted from several hundred person-years of code development effort supported by experimental validation. The broad spectrum of mechanistic and phenomenological models that have been developed represent an enormous amount of institutional knowledge that needs to be maintained. Complicating this, the existing code architectures for safety modeling evolved from programming practices of the 1970s. This has lead to monolithic applications with interdependent data models which require significant knowledge of the complexities of the entire code in order for each component to be maintained. In order to develop an advanced fast reactor safety modeling capability, the limitations of the existing code architecture must be overcome while preserving the capabilities that already exist. To accomplish this, a set of advanced safety modeling requirements is defined, based on modern programming practices, that focuses on modular development within a flexible coupling framework. An approach for integrating the existing capabilities of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code into the SHARP framework is provided in order to preserve existing capabilities while providing a smooth transition to advanced modeling capabilities. In doing this, the advanced fast reactor safety models

Specification of advanced safety modeling requirements (Rev. 0)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fanning, T. H.; Tautges, T. J.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership has lead to renewed interest in liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors for the purpose of closing the nuclear fuel cycle and making more efficient use of future repository capacity. However, the U.S. has not designed or constructed a fast reactor in nearly 30 years. Accurate, high-fidelity, whole-plant dynamics safety simulations will play a crucial role by providing confidence that component and system designs will satisfy established design limits and safety margins under a wide variety of operational, design basis, and beyond design basis transient conditions. Current modeling capabilities for fast reactor safety analyses have resulted from several hundred person-years of code development effort supported by experimental validation. The broad spectrum of mechanistic and phenomenological models that have been developed represent an enormous amount of institutional knowledge that needs to be maintained. Complicating this, the existing code architectures for safety modeling evolved from programming practices of the 1970s. This has lead to monolithic applications with interdependent data models which require significant knowledge of the complexities of the entire code in order for each component to be maintained. In order to develop an advanced fast reactor safety modeling capability, the limitations of the existing code architecture must be overcome while preserving the capabilities that already exist. To accomplish this, a set of advanced safety modeling requirements is defined, based on modern programming practices, that focuses on modular development within a flexible coupling framework. An approach for integrating the existing capabilities of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code into the SHARP framework is provided in order to preserve existing capabilities while providing a smooth transition to advanced modeling capabilities. In doing this, the advanced fast reactor safety models will

Distributed Control and Management of Renewable Electric Energy Resources for Future Grid Requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mokhtari, Ghassem; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Nourbakhsh, Ghavameddin

2016-01-01

strategy is a promising approach to manage and utilise the resources in future distribution networks to effectively deal with grid electric quality issues and requirements. Jointly, utility and customers the owners of the resources in the network are considered as part of a practical coordination strategy......It is anticipated that both medium- and low-voltage distribution networks will include high level of distributed renewable energy resources, in the future. The high penetration of these resources inevitably can introduce various power quality issues, including; overvoltage and overloading....... This book chapter provides the current research state of the art concepts and techniques in dealing with these potential issues. The methods provided in this chapter are based on distributed control approach, tailored and suitable particularly for the future distribution composition. The distributed control...

The Subject-Modeling Approach to Developing the Methodol- ogy Competence of the Future Teachers-Psychologists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Gilmanov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Any practical activity of a modern specialist requires the methodology knowledge – the ability of setting and transforming goals, operating with summarized approaches and plans, creating and reconstructing them, etc. The paper deals with the role of the methodology competence in professional thinking; the subject-modeling approach to developing the professional thinking and methodology competence is considered regarding the future teachers-psychologists.The substantiation of the above approach is given concerning the content and structure of the competence in question, as well as the students’ personal characteristics. The psychological mechanism of gaining the experience and professional thinking ability is described as interaction of two models – the cognitive and dynamic emotional ones – both reflecting the professional activity. The results of experimental work, based on such methods as analysis, theoretical modeling, supervision and polling, demon- strated the main developing factors of methodology competence: the general culture level, interest to the future profession, the professional activity presentation in educational process. The research results imply the conclusion that the purposeful pedagogic activity based on the methodology competence is necessary for developing the future specialists’ professional thinking. 

SYSTEM OF MODEL FOR TRAINING FUTURE MASTERS OF TOURISM, AS WELL AS THE ALGORITHM OF ITS PRODUCTIVE IMPLEMENTATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larisa Beskorovaynaya

2017-03-01

Full Text Available On the basis of theoretical analysis author substantiates the system model of training future masters of tourism in higher education. The author found the methodological basis of preparation of future tourism masters in the field of higher education. In addition, theoretically grounded and model of the system of training of future masters of tourism, opened its components, a set of organizational and pedagogical conditions. System model of professional training of future masters of tourism in higher education, which is considered by us as an open, integrative, multi, mobile, adequate social requirements and individual needs of students, the educational system contains components: theoretical, methodological, structural and functional, design and technology, analytical criterion. The author proved that the model provides the opportunity to reflect, recreate individual readiness of future masters of tourism with a view to understanding its forecasting features, operation and further successful implementation in educational practice.The author researched and proposed algorithm productive use of the system model of training future tourism masters in the field of higher education. Based on the results of research made a some conclusion. Further prospective research directions are also provided.

Modelling human resource requirements for the nuclear industry in Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roelofs, Ferry [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG) (Netherlands); Flore, Massimo; Estorff, Ulrik von [Joint Research Center (JRC) (Netherlands)

2017-11-15

The European Human Resource Observatory for Nuclear (EHRO-N) provides the European Commission with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts in the EU-28 and the enlargement and integration countries based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The objective is to assess how the supply of experts for the nuclear industry responds to the needs for the same experts for present and future nuclear projects in the region. Complementary to the bottom-up approach taken by the EHRO-N team at JRC, a top-down modelling approach has been taken in a collaboration with NRG in the Netherlands. This top-down modelling approach focuses on the human resource requirements for operation, construction, decommissioning, and efforts for long term operation of nuclear power plants. This paper describes the top-down methodology, the model input, the main assumptions, and the results of the analyses.

Modelling human resource requirements for the nuclear industry in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, Ferry; Flore, Massimo; Estorff, Ulrik von

2017-01-01

The European Human Resource Observatory for Nuclear (EHRO-N) provides the European Commission with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts in the EU-28 and the enlargement and integration countries based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The objective is to assess how the supply of experts for the nuclear industry responds to the needs for the same experts for present and future nuclear projects in the region. Complementary to the bottom-up approach taken by the EHRO-N team at JRC, a top-down modelling approach has been taken in a collaboration with NRG in the Netherlands. This top-down modelling approach focuses on the human resource requirements for operation, construction, decommissioning, and efforts for long term operation of nuclear power plants. This paper describes the top-down methodology, the model input, the main assumptions, and the results of the analyses.

The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

2016-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frunt, J.

2011-01-01

This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frunt, J.

2011-06-01

This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

STRUCTURAL AND FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF FORMING FUTURE MUSIC TEACHER’S CREATIVE THINKING IN INSTRUMENTAL AND PERFORMING TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadiia Lavrentieva

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In the article conceptual bases of forming students’ creative thinking in the instrumental and performing activities are revealed, taking current training trends into account. The contradictions between the requirements of society to create favorable conditions to realize future music teachers’ creative potential and current directions of a higher educational establishment to ‘a result”, which causes a specific system of promotion and support students’ value orientations and encourages students to master existing knowledge, algorithms, and performing models, depict the relevant problems of making out the system of the future music teachers’ instrumental and performing training that is aimed at developing their creative thinking. It is noted that while defining such phenomena as creative thinking and cognitive work a great number of scientists emphasizes on the word “create” which means finding and creating something that hasn’t been found in the previous individual or social experience. The aim of the article is to disclose the content and stages of implementing structural and functional model of forming future music teachers’ creative thinking The model is formed as an alternative to information and reproductive approach to training future specialists. The concept model is based on the target of forming future music teachers’ creative and methodological thinking, professional competence, activity and approaches to the students’ training to complete fulfillment of modern needs of professional and music education. The author specifies criteria of structural model of future music teachers’ creative thinking. They are value and motivational, cognitive and educational, action and technological, creative and modulating ones The effectiveness of the future music teachers’ creative thinking in instrumental and performing training depends on the level of forming clear science-based system that has a certain conceptual

Future Shop: A Model Career Placement & Transition Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Floyd, Deborah L.; And Others

During 1988-89, the Collin County Community College District (CCCCD) conducted a project to develop, implement, and evaluate a model career laboratory called a "Future Shop." The laboratory was designed to let users explore diverse career options, job placement opportunities, and transfer resources. The Future Shop lab had three major components:…

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

Science.gov (United States)

Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

2016-04-01

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-08-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V.

2008-11-01

' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth is dramatic; (5) small HPC clusters located

Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V

2008-11-15

and Networking' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

A statistical model of future human actions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, G.

1992-02-01

A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Tansuchat (Roengchai); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2009-01-01

textabstractThis paper estimates the long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat,

Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2012-01-01

textabstractThis paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat,

REQUIREMENTS FOR SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE MODELS FOR LARGE-SCALE DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kadir Alpaslan DEMIR

2015-10-01

Full Text Available TLarge-scale defense system projects are strategic for maintaining and increasing the national defense capability. Therefore, governments spend billions of dollars in the acquisition and development of large-scale defense systems. The scale of defense systems is always increasing and the costs to build them are skyrocketing. Today, defense systems are software intensive and they are either a system of systems or a part of it. Historically, the project performances observed in the development of these systems have been signifi cantly poor when compared to other types of projects. It is obvious that the currently used systems development life cycle models are insuffi cient to address today’s challenges of building these systems. Using a systems development life cycle model that is specifi cally designed for largescale defense system developments and is effective in dealing with today’s and near-future challenges will help to improve project performances. The fi rst step in the development a large-scale defense systems development life cycle model is the identifi cation of requirements for such a model. This paper contributes to the body of literature in the fi eld by providing a set of requirements for system development life cycle models for large-scale defense systems. Furthermore, a research agenda is proposed.

Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2012-01-01

We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

Parallel Beam Dynamics Simulation Tools for Future Light Source Linac Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiang, Ji; Pogorelov, Ilya v.; Ryne, Robert D.

2007-01-01

Large-scale modeling on parallel computers is playing an increasingly important role in the design of future light sources. Such modeling provides a means to accurately and efficiently explore issues such as limits to beam brightness, emittance preservation, the growth of instabilities, etc. Recently the IMPACT codes suite was enhanced to be applicable to future light source design. Simulations with IMPACT-Z were performed using up to one billion simulation particles for the main linac of a future light source to study the microbunching instability. Combined with the time domain code IMPACT-T, it is now possible to perform large-scale start-to-end linac simulations for future light sources, including the injector, main linac, chicanes, and transfer lines. In this paper we provide an overview of the IMPACT code suite, its key capabilities, and recent enhancements pertinent to accelerator modeling for future linac-based light sources

Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

2013-01-01

) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from...... model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate...... in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well...

GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR SIMULATION MODELS IN WASTE MANAGEMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Ian; Kossik, Rick; Voss, Charlie

2003-01-01

Most waste management activities are decided upon and carried out in a public or semi-public arena, typically involving the waste management organization, one or more regulators, and often other stakeholders and members of the public. In these environments, simulation modeling can be a powerful tool in reaching a consensus on the best path forward, but only if the models that are developed are understood and accepted by all of the parties involved. These requirements for understanding and acceptance of the models constrain the appropriate software and model development procedures that are employed. This paper discusses requirements for both simulation software and for the models that are developed using the software. Requirements for the software include transparency, accessibility, flexibility, extensibility, quality assurance, ability to do discrete and/or continuous simulation, and efficiency. Requirements for the models that are developed include traceability, transparency, credibility/validity, and quality control. The paper discusses these requirements with specific reference to the requirements for performance assessment models that are used for predicting the long-term safety of waste disposal facilities, such as the proposed Yucca Mountain repository

Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julius Francis Gomes

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA. Qualitative analysis provides deeper understanding of the phenomenon through the layers of CLA; litany, social causes, worldview and myth. Findings: It is di cult to predict the far future for a technology oriented sector like healthcare. This paper presents three scenarios for short-, medium- and long-term future. Based on these scenarios we also present a set of business model elements for different future time frames. This paper shows a way to combine business models with CLA, a foresight methodology; in order to apply business models in futures business research. Besides offering early results for futures business research, this study proposes a conceptual space to work with individual business models for managerial stakeholders. Originality / Value: Much research on business models has offered conceptualization of the phenomenon, innovation through business model and transformation of business models. However, existing literature does not o er much on using business model as a futures research tool. Enabled by futures thinking, we collected key business model elements and building blocks for the futures market and ana- lyzed them through the CLA framework.

The Future of Clinical Pharmacy: Developing a Holistic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia A. Shane

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This concept paper discusses the untapped promise of often overlooked humanistic skills to advance the practice of pharmacy. It highlights the seminal work that is, increasingly, integrated into medical and nursing education. The work of these educators and the growing empirical evidence that validates the importance of humanistic skills is raising questions for the future of pharmacy education and practice. To potentiate humanistic professional competencies, e.g., compassion, empathy, and emotional intelligence, how do we develop a more holistic model that integrates reflective and affective skills? There are many historical and current transitions in the profession and practice of pharmacy. If our education model is refocused with an emphasis on pharmacy’s therapeutic roots, the field has the opportunity to play a vital role in improving health outcomes and patient-centered care. Beyond the metrics of treatment effects, achieving greater patient-centeredness will require transformations that improve care processes and invest in patients’ experiences of the treatment and care they receive. Is layering on additional science sufficient to yield better health outcomes if we neglect the power of empathic interactions in the healing process?

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D'Andrea

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

2001-01-01

Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

JPL future missions and energy storage technology implications

Science.gov (United States)

Pawlik, Eugene V.

1987-01-01

The mission model for JPL future programs is presented. This model identifies mission areas where JPL is expected to have a major role and/or participate in a significant manner. These missions are focused on space science and applications missions, but they also include some participation in space station activities. The mission model is described in detail followed by a discussion on the needs for energy storage technology required to support these future activities.

Vision of future energy networks - Final report; Vision of future energy networks - Schlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Froehlich, K.; Andersson, G.

2008-07-01

In the framework of the project 'Vision of Future Networks', models and methods have been developed that enable a greenfield approach for energy systems with multiple energy carriers. Applying a greenfield approach means that no existing infrastructure is taken into account when designing the energy system, i.e. the system is virtually put up on a green field. The developed models refer to the impacts of energy storage on power systems with stochastic generation, to the integrated modelling and optimization of multi-carrier energy systems, to reliability considerations of future energy systems as well as to possibilities of combined transmission of multiple energy carriers. Key concepts, which have been developed in the framework of this project, are the Energy Hub (for the conversion and storage of energy) and the Energy Interconnector (for energy transmission). By means of these concepts, it is possible to design structures for future energy systems being able to cope with the growing requirements regarding energy supply. (author)

Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

Requirements model generation to support requirements elicitation: The Secure Tropos experience

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kiyavitskaya, N.; Zannone, N.

2008-01-01

In recent years several efforts have been devoted by researchers in the Requirements Engineering community to the development of methodologies for supporting designers during requirements elicitation, modeling, and analysis. However, these methodologies often lack tool support to facilitate their

Systems and context modeling approach to requirements analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ahuja, Amrit; Muralikrishna, G.; Patwari, Puneet; Subhrojyoti, C.; Swaminathan, N.; Vin, Harrick

2014-08-01

Ensuring completeness and correctness of the requirements for a complex system such as the SKA is challenging. Current system engineering practice includes developing a stakeholder needs definition, a concept of operations, and defining system requirements in terms of use cases and requirements statements. We present a method that enhances this current practice into a collection of system models with mutual consistency relationships. These include stakeholder goals, needs definition and system-of-interest models, together with a context model that participates in the consistency relationships among these models. We illustrate this approach by using it to analyze the SKA system requirements.

Data requirements for integrated near field models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilems, R.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Faust, C.R.; Brecher, A.

1981-01-01

The coupled nature of the various processes in the near field require that integrated models be employed to assess long term performance of the waste package and repository. The nature of the integrated near field models being compiled under the SCEPTER program are discussed. The interfaces between these near field models and far field models are described. Finally, near field data requirements are outlined in sufficient detail to indicate overall programmatic guidance for data gathering activities

Contribution of wind energy to future electricity requirements of Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M. A.; Memon, M.

2007-01-01

Pakistan is an energy deficit country. About half of the country's population has no access to electricity and per capita supply is only 520 kWh. About 67% of the conventional electricity is generated from fossil fuels with 51% and 16% share of gas and oil respectively. It has been projected that electricity demand in Pakistan would increase at an average annual growth rate of 5% to 12% under different scenarios. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country heavily depends on imported oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payment situation. Pakistan is becoming increasingly more dependent on a few sources of supply and its energy security often hangs on the fragile threat of imported oil that is subject to supply disruptions and price volatility. The production and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affects the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. Pakistan spends huge amount on the degradation of the environment. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources such as wind energy to meet its future electricity requirements. This paper presents an overview of wind power generation potential and assessment of its contribution to future electricity requirements of Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The country has about 1050 km long coastline. The technical potential of centralized grid connected wind power and wind home systems in the coastal area of the country has been estimated as about 484 TWh and 0.135 TWh per year respectively. The study concludes that wind power could meet about 20% to 50% of the electricity demand in Pakistan by the year 2030. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people

Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

2015-12-01

Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.

2013-01-01

project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...

Models for residential- and commercial-sector energy-conservation analysis: applications, limitations, and future potential. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Henry E.; Fullen, Robert E.

1980-09-01

This report reviews four of the major models used by the Department of Energy (DOE) for energy conservation analyses in the residential- and commercial-building sectors. The objective is to provide a critical analysis of how these models can serve as tools for DOE and its Conservation Policy Office in evaluating and quantifying their policy and program requirements. For this, the study brings together information on the models' analytical structure and their strengths and limitations in policy applications these are then employed to assess the most-effective role for each model in addressing future issues of buildings energy-conservation policy and analysis. The four models covered are: Oak Ridge Residential Energy Model; Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households/Comprehensive Human Resources Data System (MATH/CHRDS) Model; Oak Ridge Commercial Energy Model; and Brookhaven Buildings Energy Conservation Optimization Model (BECOM).

Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryana М. Sidun

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

The actual development of European aviation safety requirements in aviation medicine: prospects of future EASA requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Siedenburg, J

2009-04-01

Common Rules for Aviation Safety had been developed under the aegis of the Joint Aviation Authorities in the 1990s. In 2002 the Basic Regulation 1592/2002 was the founding document of a new entity, the European Aviation Safety Agency. Areas of activity were Certification and Maintenance of aircraft. On 18 March the new Basic Regulation 216/2008, repealing the original Basic Regulation was published and applicable from 08 April on. The included Essential Requirements extended the competencies of EASA inter alia to Pilot Licensing and Flight Operations. The future aeromedical requirements will be included as Annex II in another Implementing Regulation on Personnel Licensing. The detailed provisions will be published as guidance material. The proposals for these provisions have been published on 05 June 2008 as NPA 2008- 17c. After public consultation, processing of comments and final adoption the new proposals may be applicable form the second half of 2009 on. A transition period of four year will apply. Whereas the provisions are based on Joint Aviation Requirement-Flight Crew Licensing (JAR-FCL) 3, a new Light Aircraft Pilot Licence (LAPL) project and the details of the associated medical certification regarding general practitioners will be something new in aviation medicine. This paper consists of 6 sections. The introduction outlines the idea of international aviation safety. The second section describes the development of the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA), the first step to common rules for aviation safety in Europe. The third section encompasses a major change as next step: the foundation of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the development of its rules. In the following section provides an outline of the new medical requirements. Section five emphasizes the new concept of a Leisure Pilot Licence. The last section gives an outlook on ongoing rulemaking activities and the opportunities of the public to participate in them.

Requirements Modeling with the Aspect-oriented User Requirements Notation (AoURN): A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mussbacher, Gunter; Amyot, Daniel; Araújo, João; Moreira, Ana

The User Requirements Notation (URN) is a recent ITU-T standard that supports requirements engineering activities. The Aspect-oriented URN (AoURN) adds aspect-oriented concepts to URN, creating a unified framework that allows for scenario-based, goal-oriented, and aspect-oriented modeling. AoURN is applied to the car crash crisis management system (CCCMS), modeling its functional and non-functional requirements (NFRs). AoURN generally models all use cases, NFRs, and stakeholders as individual concerns and provides general guidelines for concern identification. AoURN handles interactions between concerns, capturing their dependencies and conflicts as well as the resolutions. We present a qualitative comparison of aspect-oriented techniques for scenario-based and goal-oriented requirements engineering. An evaluation carried out based on the metrics adapted from literature and a task-based evaluation suggest that AoURN models are more scalable than URN models and exhibit better modularity, reusability, and maintainability.

Identification of high-level functional/system requirements for future civil transports

Science.gov (United States)

Swink, Jay R.; Goins, Richard T.

1992-01-01

In order to accommodate the rapid growth in commercial aviation throughout the remainder of this century, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is faced with a formidable challenge to upgrade and/or modernize the National Airspace System (NAS) without compromising safety or efficiency. A recurring theme in both the Aviation System Capital Investment Plan (CIP), which has replaced the NAS Plan, and the new FAA Plan for Research, Engineering, and Development (RE&D) rely on the application of new technologies and a greater use of automation. Identifying the high-level functional and system impacts of such modernization efforts on future civil transport operational requirements, particularly in terms of cockpit functionality and information transfer, was the primary objective of this project. The FAA planning documents for the NAS of the 2005 era and beyond were surveyed; major aircraft functional capabilities and system components required for such an operating environment were identified. A hierarchical structured analysis of the information processing and flows emanating from such functional/system components were conducted and the results documented in graphical form depicting the relationships between functions and systems.

Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

Science.gov (United States)

West, R R

1996-06-01

To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

Model of an aquaponic system for minimised water, energy and nitrogen requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes Lastiri, D; Slinkert, T; Cappon, H J; Baganz, D; Staaks, G; Keesman, K J

2016-01-01

Water and nutrient savings can be established by coupling water streams between interacting processes. Wastewater from production processes contains nutrients like nitrogen (N), which can and should be recycled in order to meet future regulatory discharge demands. Optimisation of interacting water systems is a complex task. An effective way of understanding, analysing and optimising such systems is by applying mathematical models. The present modelling work aims at supporting the design of a nearly emission-free aquaculture and hydroponic system (aquaponics), thus contributing to sustainable production and to food security for the 21st century. Based on the model, a system that couples 40 m(3) fish tanks and a hydroponic system of 1,000 m(2) can produce 5 tons of tilapia and 75 tons of tomato yearly. The system requires energy to condense and recover evaporated water, for lighting and heating, adding up to 1.3 GJ/m(2) every year. In the suggested configuration, the fish can provide about 26% of the N required in a plant cycle. A coupling strategy that sends water from the fish to the plants in amounts proportional to the fish feed input, reduces the standard deviation of the NO3(-) level in the fish cycle by 35%.

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ettore Bernardoni

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

Peeling back the lithosphere: Controlling parameters, surface expressions and the future directions in delamination modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Göğüş, Oğuz H.; Ueda, Kosuke

2018-06-01

Geodynamical models investigate the rheological and physical properties of the lithosphere that peels back (delaminates) from the upper-middle crust. Meanwhile, model predictions are used to relate to a set of observations in the geological context to the test the validity of delamination. Here, we review numerical and analogue models of delamination from these perspectives and provide a number of first-order topics which future modeling studies may address. Models suggest that the presence of the weak lower crust that resides between the strong mantle lithosphere (at least 100 times more viscous/stronger) and the strong upper crust is necessary to develop delamination. Lower crustal weakening may be induced by melt infiltration, shear heating or it naturally occurs through the jelly sandwich type strength profile of the continental lithosphere. The negative buoyancy of the lithosphere required to facilitate the delamination is induced by the pre-existing ocean subduction and/or the lower crustal eclogitization. Surface expression of the peeling back lithosphere has a distinct transient and migratory imprint on the crust, resulting in rapid surface uplift/subsidence, magmatism, heating and shortening/extension. New generation of geodynamical experiments can explain how different types of melting (e.g hydrated, dry melting) occurs with delamination. Reformation of the lithosphere after removal, three dimensional aspects, and the termination of the process are key investigation areas for future research. The robust model predictions, as with other geodynamic modeling studies should be reconciled with observations.

The system of dose limitation and its optimization requirement: Present status and future outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez, A.J.

1984-01-01

Optimization of radiation protection is a relevant and controversial requirement of the system of dose limitation currently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Since the first European Scientific Seminar on Experience and Methods on Optimization - held by the Commission of the European Communities in 1979 - and several related seminars and symposia organized by the IAEA, many international efforts have been made to promote the practical implementation of the requirement. Recently, the ICRP published a report of ICRP Committee 4 on cost-benefit analysis in the optimization of radiation protection (ICRP Publication 37); it provides guidance on the principles and methods of application of the requirement. Ultimately, this seminar demonstrates the continuous interest of the international community in the proper use of optimization. This paper is intended to contribute to the seminar's objective, discussing the current issues concerning the implementation of the requirement and exploring perspectives for future applications of the principles involved in optimization

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Radionuclide Transport Modelling: Current Status and Future Needs. Synthesis, Work Group Reports and Extended Abstracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-06-01

The workshop identified a set of critical issues for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority (SSI) to address in preparing for future reviews of license applications, which have subsequently been considered in preparing this synthesis. Structure for organising expert participation: A structure for organising expert participation in future reviews is proposed based on clearinghouses for (1) regulatory application and context, (2) engineered barrier systems, (3) geosphere, (4) biosphere, and (5) performance assessment integration and calculations. As part of their work, these clearinghouses could identify key issues that need to be resolved prior to future reviews. Performance assessment strategy and review context: Future reviews will be conducted in the context of regulations based on risk criteria; this leads to a need to review the methods used in probabilistic risk assessment, as well as the underlying process models. A plan is needed for accomplishing both aims. Despite the probabilistic framework, a need is anticipated for targeted, deterministic calculations to check particular assumptions. Priorities and ambition level for reviews: SKI's and SSI's resources can be more efficiently utilised by an early review of SKB's safety case, so that if necessary the authorities can make an early start on evaluating topics that are of primary significance to the safety case. As a guide to planning for allocation of effort in future reviews, this workshop produced a preliminary ranking of technical issues, on a scale from 'non-controversial' to 'requiring independent modelling,' Analysis of repository system and scenarios: Systems analysis tools including features/events/processes encyclopaedias, process-influence diagrams, and assessment-model flowcharts should be used as review tools, to check the processes and influences considered in SKB's analyses, and to evaluate the comprehensiveness of the scenarios that are

Radionuclide Transport Modelling: Current Status and Future Needs. Synthesis, Work Group Reports and Extended Abstracts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-06-01

The workshop identified a set of critical issues for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority (SSI) to address in preparing for future reviews of license applications, which have subsequently been considered in preparing this synthesis. Structure for organising expert participation: A structure for organising expert participation in future reviews is proposed based on clearinghouses for (1) regulatory application and context, (2) engineered barrier systems, (3) geosphere, (4) biosphere, and (5) performance assessment integration and calculations. As part of their work, these clearinghouses could identify key issues that need to be resolved prior to future reviews. Performance assessment strategy and review context: Future reviews will be conducted in the context of regulations based on risk criteria; this leads to a need to review the methods used in probabilistic risk assessment, as well as the underlying process models. A plan is needed for accomplishing both aims. Despite the probabilistic framework, a need is anticipated for targeted, deterministic calculations to check particular assumptions. Priorities and ambition level for reviews: SKI's and SSI's resources can be more efficiently utilised by an early review of SKB's safety case, so that if necessary the authorities can make an early start on evaluating topics that are of primary significance to the safety case. As a guide to planning for allocation of effort in future reviews, this workshop produced a preliminary ranking of technical issues, on a scale from 'non-controversial' to 'requiring independent modelling,' Analysis of repository system and scenarios: Systems analysis tools including features/events/processes encyclopaedias, process-influence diagrams, and assessment-model flowcharts should be used as review tools, to check the processes and influences considered in SKB's analyses, and to evaluate the comprehensiveness of the scenarios that are

The decisive future of inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

Joint Simulation System (JSIMS) Functional Requirements Document (FRD); A User's Perspective on the Future, Version 1.O

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1996-01-01

The purpose of this document is to define JSIMS functional requirements in a level of detail that is meaningful to both the JSIMS developmental community and the expected future users of the system...

Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

2016-12-01

Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

OpenAIRE

Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

2016-01-01

Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

Multi-Stage ADRs for Current and Future Astronomy Missions: Performance and Requirements for Cryogen-Free Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Shirron, Peter; Kimball, Mark; Vlahacos, Kosta

2010-01-01

The cooling requirements for current (e.g. Astro-H) and future (e.g. IXO and ASP) astronomy missions pose significant challenges for the sub-Kelvin Cooler. In particular, the use of large detector arrays increases the cooling power needed, and the variety of cryocoolers that can be used for pre-cooling greatly expands the range of temperatures at which the sub-Kelvin cooler can be designed to reject heat. In most cases, there is also a need for a stable higher temperature stage for cooling amplifiers or telescope components. NASA/GSFC is currently building a 3-stage ADR for the Astro-H mission, and is developing a 5-stage ADR suitable for IXO and ASP, as well as many other missions in the early planning stages. The architecture of these ADRs allows them to be adapted rather easily for different cooling requirements and to accommodate different cryocooler capabilities (operating temperature and cooling power). This paper will discuss the performance of these ADRs, which operate in both continuous, and single-shot cooling modes, and the minimum cryocooler capabilities needed to meet the requirements of future missions.

A Cointegrated Regime-Switching Model Approach with Jumps Applied to Natural Gas Futures Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Leonhardt

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Energy commodities and their futures naturally show cointegrated price movements. However, there is empirical evidence that the prices of futures with different maturities might have, e.g., different jump behaviours in different market situations. Observing commodity futures over time, there is also evidence for different states of the underlying volatility of the futures. In this paper, we therefore allow for cointegration of the term structure within a multi-factor model, which includes seasonality, as well as joint and individual jumps in the price processes of futures with different maturities. The seasonality in this model is realized via a deterministic function, and the jumps are represented with thinned-out compound Poisson processes. The model also includes a regime-switching approach that is modelled through a Markov chain and extends the class of geometric models. We show how the model can be calibrated to empirical data and give some practical applications.

Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

2017-08-01

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

Extending enterprise architecture modelling with business goals and requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Engelsman, Wilco; Quartel, Dick; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten

2011-02-01

The methods for enterprise architecture (EA), such as The Open Group Architecture Framework, acknowledge the importance of requirements modelling in the development of EAs. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. The current modelling techniques for EA focus on the products, services, processes and applications of an enterprise. In addition, techniques may be provided to describe structured requirements lists and use cases. Little support is available however for modelling the underlying motivation of EAs in terms of stakeholder concerns and the high-level goals that address these concerns. This article describes a language that supports the modelling of this motivation. The definition of the language is based on existing work on high-level goal and requirements modelling and is aligned with an existing standard for enterprise modelling: the ArchiMate language. Furthermore, the article illustrates how EA can benefit from analysis techniques from the requirements engineering domain.

To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

2003-01-01

A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok

2014-01-01

within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McQuade, D.

2001-01-01

As power generators around the world grapple with the challenges of the environment, deregulation, competitions and changing prices of fuels, the economics of running a future power plant are influenced significantly by the component of labour costs. These costs, from plant staff, corporate support and purchased services, will affect the overall plant economics. To achieve improved efficiency and effectiveness of organization structures and staff, vendors and utilities are working jointly to apply lessons learned for future designs. This paper will examine the experience gained to date with Canadian CANDU 6 type reactors both in Canada and abroad. The strategies which have been very successful will be reviewed, together with the results of collaboration between Atomic Energy of Canada and the utilities. An assessment of the staffing numbers is provided as a comparison between current number at a Canadian utility and the projected number from a future plant with the improvements in the design. The influence to the overall plant economics are discussed with some broad generalities that look at the effects of increasing and reducing staff levels showing the probable impact on capacity factor. The lessons from other plants can contribute significantly to the performance improvement process. The paper points to the need for a balanced approach in the future for the distribution of operating maintenance and administration (OM and A) cost between nuclear safety studies; maintenance programs and staff training. In the future, utilities, together with the designers, will have to greatly improve plant maintenance and training. The improved design features detailed in the paper will support this strategy by utilizing operational experience. (author)

Skills and Knowledge Requirements of the Future Labour Market - Responsibility of the Present

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magda Zupančič

2009-12-01

Full Text Available European economies are warning with increased intensity about the dangerous discrepancy between the skills and knowledge required by employers and the existing labour supply, which affects significantly (non-competitiveness of national economies. In the knowledge society, skills, knowledge and competences are becoming an essential condition for competitiveness on (global labour markets, a factor that has - in the time of crisis - become crucial for market survival of economic entities. In other words, for the knowledge society – the aim of the integrated Europe - it is of great importance to identify present and future requirements for skills and up-to-date knowledge. Only a holistic and systematic observation and identification of these requirements can make it possible to regulate the supply and demand situation on labour markets, as well as to increase competitiveness and bring a high degree of social cohesion. Appropriately trained workforce, comprising people of all types of qualifications and generations, pursuing life-long education, is able to adapt quicker and more successfully to the demands of today’s dynamic economic environment and (professional, industry-related and geographic mobility.

Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-08-01

This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

Assessing Calorimeter Requirements for a 100 TeV Future Collider With Reference to New Physics Benchmarks

CERN Document Server

Dylewsky, Daniel

2014-01-01

Plans for a future 100 TeV circular collider require the design of detection equipment capable of measuring events at such high energy. This study examined the simulated decay of hypothetical 10 TeV excited quarks in 100 TeV pp collisions with regard to the possibility of calorimeter punch-through. Two methods of parameterizing the energy resolution in detector simulations were employed to model the effects of particles escaping the hadronic calorimeter. Varying the constant term of the energy resolution parameterization caused the dijet mass distribution to broaden up to 58% with respect to the ATLAS default. Using the assumption that the jets' makeup could be approximated by 180 GeV pions, their expected signal degradation in calorimeters of varying depths was compared to the varied constant term trials. It was found that the broadening associated with a calorimeter of thickness 7 lambda was consistent with that caused by an increase of 1\\% in the constant term (from the ATLAS default).

Design of a modular digital computer system, DRL 4. [for meeting future requirements of spaceborne computers

Science.gov (United States)

1972-01-01

The design is reported of an advanced modular computer system designated the Automatically Reconfigurable Modular Multiprocessor System, which anticipates requirements for higher computing capacity and reliability for future spaceborne computers. Subjects discussed include: an overview of the architecture, mission analysis, synchronous and nonsynchronous scheduling control, reliability, and data transmission.

Requirements on the Redshift Accuracy for future Supernova and Number Count Surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huterer, Dragan; Kim, Alex; Broderick, Tamara

2004-01-01

We investigate the required redshift accuracy of type Ia supernova and cluster number-count surveys in order for the redshift uncertainties not to contribute appreciably to the dark energy parameter error budget. For the SNAP supernova experiment, we find that, without the assistance of ground-based measurements, individual supernova redshifts would need to be determined to about 0.002 or better, which is a challenging but feasible requirement for a low-resolution spectrograph. However, we find that accurate redshifts for z < 0.1 supernovae, obtained with ground-based experiments, are sufficient to immunize the results against even relatively large redshift errors at high z. For the future cluster number-count surveys such as the South Pole Telescope, Planck or DUET, we find that the purely statistical error in photometric redshift is less important, and that the irreducible, systematic bias in redshift drives the requirements. The redshift bias will have to be kept below 0.001-0.005 per redshift bin (which is determined by the filter set), depending on the sky coverage and details of the definition of the minimal mass of the survey. Furthermore, we find that X-ray surveys have a more stringent required redshift accuracy than Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect surveys since they use a shorter lever arm in redshift; conversely, SZ surveys benefit from their high redshift reach only so long as some redshift information is available for distant (zgtrsim1) clusters

Customer requirement modeling and mapping of numerical control machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongqi Sheng

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In order to better obtain information about customer requirement and develop products meeting customer requirement, it is necessary to systematically analyze and handle the customer requirement. This article uses the product service system of numerical control machine as research objective and studies the customer requirement modeling and mapping oriented toward configuration design. It introduces the conception of requirement unit, expounds the customer requirement decomposition rules, and establishes customer requirement model; it builds the house of quality using quality function deployment and confirms the weight of technical feature of product and service; it explores the relevance rules between data using rough set theory, establishes rule database, and solves the target value of technical feature of product. Using economical turning center series numerical control machine as an example, it verifies the rationality of proposed customer requirement model.

Modeling and Testing Legacy Data Consistency Requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nytun, J. P.; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

2003-01-01

An increasing number of data sources are available on the Internet, many of which offer semantically overlapping data, but based on different schemas, or models. While it is often of interest to integrate such data sources, the lack of consistency among them makes this integration difficult....... This paper addresses the need for new techniques that enable the modeling and consistency checking for legacy data sources. Specifically, the paper contributes to the development of a framework that enables consistency testing of data coming from different types of data sources. The vehicle is UML and its...... accompanying XMI. The paper presents techniques for modeling consistency requirements using OCL and other UML modeling elements: it studies how models that describe the required consistencies among instances of legacy models can be designed in standard UML tools that support XMI. The paper also considers...

A multi-scale and model approach to estimate future tidal high water statistics in the southern German Bright

Science.gov (United States)

Hein, H.; Mai, S.; Mayer, B.; Pohlmann, T.; Barjenbruch, U.

2012-04-01

The interactions of tides, external surges, storm surges and waves with an additional role of the coastal bathymetry define the probability of extreme water levels at the coast. Probabilistic analysis and also process based numerical models allow the estimation of future states. From the physical point of view both, deterministic processes and stochastic residuals are the fundamentals of high water statistics. This study uses a so called model chain to reproduce historic statistics of tidal high water levels (Thw) as well as the prediction of future statistics high water levels. The results of the numerical models are post-processed by a stochastic analysis. Recent studies show, that for future extrapolation of extreme Thw nonstationary parametric approaches are required. With the presented methods a better prediction of time depended parameter sets seems possible. The investigation region of this study is the southern German Bright. The model-chain is the representation of a downscaling process, which starts with an emissions scenario. Regional atmospheric and ocean models refine the results of global climate models. The concept of downscaling was chosen to resolve coastal topography sufficiently. The North Sea and estuaries are modeled with the three-dimensional model HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model. The running time includes 150 years (1950 - 2100). Results of four different hindcast runs and also of one future prediction run are validated. Based on multi-scale analysis and the theory of entropy we analyze whether any significant periodicities are represented numerically. Results show that also hindcasting the climate of Thw with a model chain for the last 60 years is a challenging task. For example, an additional modeling activity must be the inclusion of tides into regional climate ocean models. It is found that the statistics of climate variables derived from model results differs from the statistics derived from measurements. E.g. there are considerable shifts in

Reactor core modeling practice: Operational requirements, model characteristics, and model validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerbino, H.

1997-01-01

The physical models implemented in power plant simulators have greatly increased in performance and complexity in recent years. This process has been enabled by the ever increasing computing power available at affordable prices. This paper describes this process from several angles: First the operational requirements which are more critical from the point of view of model performance, both for normal and off-normal operating conditions; A second section discusses core model characteristics in the light of the solutions implemented by Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) in several full-scope simulators recently built and delivered for Dutch, German, and French nuclear power plants; finally we consider the model validation procedures, which are of course an integral part of model development, and which are becoming more and more severe as performance expectations increase. As a conclusion, it may be asserted that in the core modeling field, as in other areas, the general improvement in the quality of simulation codes has resulted in a fairly rapid convergence towards mainstream engineering-grade calculations. This is remarkable performance in view of the stringent real-time requirements which the simulation codes must satisfy as well as the extremely wide range of operating conditions that they are called upon to cover with good accuracy. (author)

The future of hydropower planning modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

2017-12-01

Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the

Extending enterprise architecture modelling with business goals and requirements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engelsman, W.; Quartel, Dick; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten J.

The methods for enterprise architecture (EA), such as The Open Group Architecture Framework, acknowledge the importance of requirements modelling in the development of EAs. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. The current modelling

A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

A simple technique for obtaining future climate data inputs for natural resource models

Science.gov (United States)

Those conducting impact studies using natural resource models need to be able to quickly and easily obtain downscaled future climate data from multiple models, scenarios, and timescales for multiple locations. This paper describes a method of quickly obtaining future climate data over a wide range o...

Future mission opportunities and requirements for advanced space photovoltaic energy conversion technology

Science.gov (United States)

Flood, Dennis J.

1990-01-01

The variety of potential future missions under consideration by NASA will impose a broad range of requirements on space solar arrays, and mandates the development of new solar cells which can offer a wide range of capabilities to mission planners. Major advances in performance have recently been achieved at several laboratories in a variety of solar cell types. Many of those recent advances are reviewed, the areas are examined where possible improvements are yet to be made, and the requirements are discussed that must be met by advanced solar cell if they are to be used in space. The solar cells of interest include single and multiple junction cells which are fabricated from single crystal, polycrystalline and amorphous materials. Single crystal cells on foreign substrates, thin film single crystal cells on superstrates, and multiple junction cells which are either mechanically stacked, monolithically grown, or hybrid structures incorporating both techniques are discussed. Advanced concentrator array technology for space applications is described, and the status of thin film, flexible solar array blanket technology is reported.

Confronting dark energy models mimicking ΛCDM epoch with observational constraints: Future cosmological perturbations decay or future Rip?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astashenok, Artyom V.; Odintsov, Sergei D.

2013-01-01

We confront dark energy models which are currently similar to ΛCDM theory with observational data which include the SNe data, matter density perturbations and baryon acoustic oscillations data. DE cosmology under consideration may evolve to Big Rip, type II or type III future singularity, or to Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. It is shown that matter perturbations data define more precisely the possible deviation from ΛCDM model than consideration of SNe data only. The combined data analysis proves that DE models under consideration are as consistent as ΛCDM model. We demonstrate that growth of matter density perturbations may occur at sufficiently small background density but still before the possible disintegration of bound objects (like clusters of galaxies, galaxies, etc.) in Big Rip, type III singularity, Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. This new effect may bring the future universe to chaotic state well before disintegration or Rip.

Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2011-01-01

Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

Faculty Unions, Business Models, and the Academy's Future

Science.gov (United States)

Rhoades, Gary

2011-01-01

In this article, the author addresses questions about the future of faculty unions, business models, and the academy by providing some current and historical context regarding the causes of and conflicts about faculty unions. He also reviews trends in college and university management over the past three decades, using California, Ohio, and…

Physics-based distributed snow models in the operational arena: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Winstral, A. H.; Jonas, T.; Schirmer, M.; Helbig, N.

2017-12-01

The demand for modeling tools robust to climate change and weather extremes along with coincident increases in computational capabilities have led to an increase in the use of physics-based snow models in operational applications. Current operational applications include the WSL-SLF's across Switzerland, ASO's in California, and USDA-ARS's in Idaho. While the physics-based approaches offer many advantages there remain limitations and modeling challenges. The most evident limitation remains computation times that often limit forecasters to a single, deterministic model run. Other limitations however remain less conspicuous amidst the assumptions that these models require little to no calibration based on their foundation on physical principles. Yet all energy balance snow models seemingly contain parameterizations or simplifications of processes where validation data are scarce or present understanding is limited. At the research-basin scale where many of these models were developed these modeling elements may prove adequate. However when applied over large areas, spatially invariable parameterizations of snow albedo, roughness lengths and atmospheric exchange coefficients - all vital to determining the snowcover energy balance - become problematic. Moreover as we apply models over larger grid cells, the representation of sub-grid variability such as the snow-covered fraction adds to the challenges. Here, we will demonstrate some of the major sensitivities of distributed energy balance snow models to particular model constructs, the need for advanced and spatially flexible methods and parameterizations, and prompt the community for open dialogue and future collaborations to further modeling capabilities.

Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Demosthenous

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

The progress of Requirements Engineering research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Terstine

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This article is describes the path through the process of Requirements Engineering research and some lines are identified that can meet the needs of the emerging software and the complexity of today's problems. First is done a reviews to the state of the art of research in this area, with regard to technologies developed to address requirements specific tasks, such as elicitation, modeling and analysis. This review identified areas for further research. Subsequently, several strategies are described to implement and extend the results, in order to help shape the scope of future research. Finally, some topics for future research are proposed in order to address the Requirements Engineering needed to respond to emerging systems and the complexity of the same.

Nuclear fuel licensing requirements: present status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gantchev, T.; Vitkova, M.; Gorinov, I.; Datcheva, D.; Rashkova, N.

2001-01-01

The nuclear fuel licensing process must be directed to establishing of criteria for licensing (fuel safety criteria) and relationship between safety limits, technical specifications and operational conditions. This paper discusses the fuel safety criteria as used by NRC and Russian vendor. A survey on the available fuel behavior, modeling and related computer codes is given with respect to help the licensing process including new safety features of general changes in fuel design and operational conditions. Several types of computer codes that are used in safety analysis are sensitive to fuel-related parameters. The need for further code development and verification has been stated on many occasions: new design elements, such as different cladding materials, higher burnup, different fuel microstructure and use of MOX fuel can affect the performance of these codes. Regulatory inspection practices during operation and refueling in different countries are also shown. Future trends are discussed in particular with regard to the coming high burnup and to new core management schemes

Requirements and solutions for future pellet technology; Krav och loesningar foer framtidens pelletsteknik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paulrud, Susanne; Roennbaeck, Marie; Ryde, Daniel; Laitila, Thomas

2010-07-01

Requirements and solutions for future pellet burning technologies Since 2006, sales of pellet burning technologies to the Swedish residential market have fallen. The main reasons for this decrease are: many of the economically favorable easy conversions from oil to pellets have been made; competition from heat pumps; warm winters; a stable electricity price; and the current structure of heating in residential buildings, where electric heating dominates. To change this falling trend pellets need to become more attractive to consumers. This project aimed to analyze the requirements for the next generation of pellets systems and to develop potential solutions, in collaboration with the pellets industry. More specifically, the study looked at consumers' attitudes toward heating choices and different heating through a survey to 2000 house owners across Sweden. The project included a market analysis of Swedish and international technologies and examines the conditions for Swedish pellet burning technology in different markets. In addition, new solutions and developments for Swedish pellets burning technology are described

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Toward an energy surety future.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tatro, Marjorie L.; Jones, Scott A.; Covan, John Morgan; Kuswa, Glenn W.; Menicucci, David F.; Robinett, Rush D. III (.; )

2005-10-01

Because of the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the corresponding release of carbon to the environment, the global energy future is complex. Some of the consequences may be politically and economically disruptive, and expensive to remedy. For the next several centuries, fuel requirements will increase with population, land use, and ecosystem degradation. Current or projected levels of aggregated energy resource use will not sustain civilization as we know it beyond a few more generations. At the same time, issues of energy security, reliability, sustainability, recoverability, and safety need attention. We supply a top-down, qualitative model--the surety model--to balance expenditures of limited resources to assure success while at the same time avoiding catastrophic failure. Looking at U.S. energy challenges from a surety perspective offers new insights on possible strategies for developing solutions to challenges. The energy surety model with its focus on the attributes of security and sustainability could be extrapolated into a global energy system using a more comprehensive energy surety model than that used here. In fact, the success of the energy surety strategy ultimately requires a more global perspective. We use a 200 year time frame for sustainability because extending farther into the future would almost certainly miss the advent and perfection of new technologies or changing needs of society.

A goal-oriented requirements modelling language for enterprise architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Quartel, Dick; Engelsman, W.; Jonkers, Henk; van Sinderen, Marten J.

2009-01-01

Methods for enterprise architecture, such as TOGAF, acknowledge the importance of requirements engineering in the development of enterprise architectures. Modelling support is needed to specify, document, communicate and reason about goals and requirements. Current modelling techniques for

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Key Technologies in the Context of Future Networks: Operational and Management Requirements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorena Isabel Barona López

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The concept of Future Networks is based on the premise that current infrastructures require enhanced control, service customization, self-organization and self-management capabilities to meet the new needs in a connected society, especially of mobile users. In order to provide a high-performance mobile system, three main fields must be improved: radio, network, and operation and management. In particular, operation and management capabilities are intended to enable business agility and operational sustainability, where the addition of new services does not imply an excessive increase in capital or operational expenditures. In this context, a set of key-enabled technologies have emerged in order to aid in this field. Concepts such as Software Defined Network (SDN, Network Function Virtualization (NFV and Self-Organized Networks (SON are pushing traditional systems towards the next 5G network generation.This paper presents an overview of the current status of these promising technologies and ongoing works to fulfill the operational and management requirements of mobile infrastructures. This work also details the use cases and the challenges, taking into account not only SDN, NFV, cloud computing and SON but also other paradigms.

Models of protein and amino acid requirements for cattle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Orlindo Tedeschi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Protein supply and requirements by ruminants have been studied for more than a century. These studies led to the accumulation of lots of scientific information about digestion and metabolism of protein by ruminants as well as the characterization of the dietary protein in order to maximize animal performance. During the 1980s and 1990s, when computers became more accessible and powerful, scientists began to conceptualize and develop mathematical nutrition models, and to program them into computers to assist with ration balancing and formulation for domesticated ruminants, specifically dairy and beef cattle. The most commonly known nutrition models developed during this period were the National Research Council (NRC in the United States, Agricultural Research Council (ARC in the United Kingdom, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA in France, and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO in Australia. Others were derivative works from these models with different degrees of modifications in the supply or requirement calculations, and the modeling nature (e.g., static or dynamic, mechanistic, or deterministic. Circa 1990s, most models adopted the metabolizable protein (MP system over the crude protein (CP and digestible CP systems to estimate supply of MP and the factorial system to calculate MP required by the animal. The MP system included two portions of protein (i.e., the rumen-undegraded dietary CP - RUP - and the contributions of microbial CP - MCP as the main sources of MP for the animal. Some models would explicitly account for the impact of dry matter intake (DMI on the MP required for maintenance (MPm; e.g., Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System - CNCPS, the Dutch system - DVE/OEB, while others would simply account for scurf, urinary, metabolic fecal, and endogenous contributions independently of DMI. All models included milk yield and its components in estimating MP required for lactation

A Requirements Analysis Model Based on QFD

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

TANG Zhi-wei; Nelson K.H.Tang

2004-01-01

The enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has emerged to offer an integrated IT solution and more and more enterprises are increasing by adopting this system and regarding it as an important innovation. However, there is already evidence of high failure risks in ERP project implementation, one major reason is poor analysis of the requirements for system implementation. In this paper, the importance of requirements analysis for ERP project implementation is highlighted, and a requirements analysis model by applying quality function deployment (QFD) is presented, which will support to conduct requirements analysis for ERP project.

Spatio-temporal model based optimization framework to design future hydrogen infrastructure networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konda, N.V.S.; Shah, N.; Brandon, N.P.

2009-01-01

A mixed integer programming (MIP) spatio-temporal model was used to design hydrogen infrastructure networks for the Netherlands. The detailed economic analysis was conducted using a multi-echelon model of the entire hydrogen supply chain, including feed, production, storage, and transmission-distribution systems. The study considered various near-future and commercially available technologies. A multi-period model was used to design evolutionary hydrogen supply networks in coherence with growing demand. A scenario-based analysis was conducted in order to account for uncertainties in future demand. The study showed that competitive hydrogen networks can be designed for any conceivable scenario. It was concluded that the multi-period model presented significant advantages in relation to decision-making over long time-horizons

Fractured rock modeling in the National Waste Terminal Storage Program: a review of requirements and status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

St John, C.; Krug, A.; Key, S.; Monsees, J.

1983-05-01

Generalized computer codes capable of forming the basis for numerical models of fractured rock masses are being used within the NWTS program. Little additional development of these codes is considered justifiable, except in the area of representation of discrete fractures. On the other hand, model preparation requires definition of medium-specific constitutive descriptions and site characteristics and is therefore legitimately conducted by each of the media-oriented projects within the National Waste Terminal Storage program. However, it is essential that a uniform approach to the role of numerical modeling be adopted, including agreement upon the contribution of modeling to the design and licensing process and the need for, and means of, model qualification for particular purposes. This report discusses the role of numerical modeling, reviews the capabilities of several computer codes that are being used to support design or performance assessment, and proposes a framework for future numerical modeling activities within the NWTS program

Vitamin D Requirements for the Future-Lessons Learned and Charting a Path Forward.

Science.gov (United States)

Cashman, Kevin D

2018-04-25

Estimates of dietary requirements for vitamin D or Dietary Reference Values (DRV) are crucial from a public health perspective in providing a framework for prevention of vitamin D deficiency and optimizing vitamin D status of individuals. While these important public health policy instruments were developed with the evidence-base and data available at the time, there are some issues that need to be clarified or considered in future iterations of DRV for vitamin D. This is important as it will allow for more fine-tuned and truer estimates of the dietary requirements for vitamin D and thus provide for more population protection. The present review will overview some of the confusion that has arisen in relation to the application and/or interpretation of the definitions of the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) and Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA). It will also highlight some of the clarifications needed and, in particular, how utilization of a new approach in terms of using individual participant-level data (IPD), over and beyond aggregated data, from randomised controlled trials with vitamin D may have a key role in generating these more fine-tuned and truer estimates, which is of importance as we move towards the next iteration of vitamin D DRVs.

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. D. S. Cullis

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Science.gov (United States)

Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

2018-02-01

Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

2017-07-15

A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three Tier Unified Process Model for Requirement Negotiations and Stakeholder Collaborations

Science.gov (United States)

Niazi, Muhammad Ashraf Khan; Abbas, Muhammad; Shahzad, Muhammad

2012-11-01

This research paper is focused towards carrying out a pragmatic qualitative analysis of various models and approaches of requirements negotiations (a sub process of requirements management plan which is an output of scope managementís collect requirements process) and studies stakeholder collaborations methodologies (i.e. from within communication management knowledge area). Experiential analysis encompass two tiers; first tier refers to the weighted scoring model while second tier focuses on development of SWOT matrices on the basis of findings of weighted scoring model for selecting an appropriate requirements negotiation model. Finally the results are simulated with the help of statistical pie charts. On the basis of simulated results of prevalent models and approaches of negotiations, a unified approach for requirements negotiations and stakeholder collaborations is proposed where the collaboration methodologies are embeded into selected requirements negotiation model as internal parameters of the proposed process alongside some external required parameters like MBTI, opportunity analysis etc.

The Swedish Utilities joint approach to form common basis for design requirements for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, B.

1998-01-01

The Owners of the Swedish Nuclear Power Plants have decided to form a document that should state the design principals and requirement for cost-effective and continuous development of the reactor safety in the future. The development of this document will be a part of the modernization and development of the Swedish Nuclear Power Plants. The basis for this document is an evaluation of Swedish and International standards and regulations as IAEA/INSAG, US-regulations, EUR etc. (author)

Nanotoxicity prediction using computational modelling - review and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Saini, Bhavna; Srivastava, Sumit

2018-04-01

Nanomaterials has stimulated various outlooks for future in a number of industries and scientific ventures. A number of applications such as cosmetics, medicines, and electronics are employing nanomaterials due to their various compelling properties. The unending growth of nanomaterials usage in our daily life has escalated the health and environmental risks. Early nanotoxicity recognition is a big challenge. Various researches are going on in the field of nanotoxicity, which comprised of several problems such as inadequacy of proper datasets, lack of appropriate rules and characterization of nanomaterials. Computational modelling would be beneficial asset for nanomaterials researchers because it can foresee the toxicity, rest on previous experimental data. In this study, we have reviewed sufficient work demonstrating a proper pathway to proceed with QSAR analysis of Nanomaterials for toxicity modelling. The paper aims at providing comprehensive insight of Nano QSAR, various theories, tools and approaches used, along with an outline for future research directions to work on.

Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, S

2009-10-01

Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

Proceedings of standard model at the energy of present and future accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Csikor, F.; Pocsik, G.; Toth, E.

1992-01-01

This book contains the proceedings of the Workshop on The Standard Model at the Energy of the Present and Future Accelerators, 27 June - 1 July 1989, Budapest. The Standard Model of strong and electro-weak interactions providing essential insights into the fundamental structure of matter and being the basic building block of further generalizations has a rich content. The Workshop was devoted to discussing topical problems of testing the Standard Model in high energy reactions such as jet physics and fragmentation, new applications and tests of perturbative QCD, CP-violation, B-meson physics and developments in weak decays, some of the future experimental plans and related topics

Visual soil evaluation - future research requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Emmet-Booth, Jeremy; Forristal, Dermot; Fenton, Owen; Ball, Bruce; Holden, Nick

2017-04-01

A review of Visual Soil Evaluation (VSE) techniques (Emmet-Booth et al., 2016) highlighted their established utility for soil quality assessment, though some limitations were identified; (1) The examination of aggregate size, visible intra-porosity and shape forms a key assessment criterion in almost all methods, thus limiting evaluation to structural form. The addition of criteria that holistically examine structure may be desirable. For example, structural stability can be indicated using dispersion tests or examining soil surface crusting, while the assessment of soil colour may indirectly indicate soil organic matter content, a contributor to stability. Organic matter assessment may also indicate structural resilience, along with rooting, earthworm numbers or shrinkage cracking. (2) Soil texture may influence results or impeded method deployment. Modification of procedures to account for extreme texture variation is desirable. For example, evidence of compaction in sandy or single grain soils greatly differs to that in clayey soils. Some procedures incorporate separate classification systems or adjust deployment based on texture. (3) Research into impacts of soil moisture content on VSE evaluation criteria is required. Criteria such as rupture resistance and shape may be affected by moisture content. It is generally recommended that methods are deployed on moist soils and quantification of influences of moisture variation on results is necessary. (4) Robust sampling strategies for method deployment are required. Dealing with spatial variation differs between methods, but where methods can be deployed over large areas, clear instruction on sampling is required. Additionally, as emphasis has been placed on the agricultural production of soil, so the ability of VSE for exploring structural quality in terms of carbon storage, water purification and biodiversity support also requires research. References Emmet-Booth, J.P., Forristal. P.D., Fenton, O., Ball, B

Dynamical reduction models: present status and future developments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bassi, Angelo [Dipartimento di Fisica Teorica, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Strada Costiera 11, 34014 Trieste (Italy); Mathematisches Institut der Ludwig-Maximilians Universitaet, Theresienstr. 39, 80333 Munich (Germany)

2007-05-15

We review the major achievements of the dynamical reduction program, showing why and how it provides a unified, consistent description of physical phenomena, from the microscopic quantum domain to the macroscopic classical one. We discuss the difficulties in generalizing the existing models in order to comprise also relativistic quantum field theories. We point out possible future lines of research, ranging from mathematical physics to phenomenology.

Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. G. Whitchead

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-01-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

Problems associated with modelling future biomass use in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turkson, J.; Fenhann, J.

1997-01-01

One of the main objectives of modelling biomass consumption is to obtain accurate assessment of current and future biomass supply and demand patterns. Some problems associated with biomass modelling in the developing countries are discussed, the focus is put on Africa. The wood fuel and charcoal consumption in households are investigated. Differences between rural and urban areas are pointed out. (K.A.)

Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors (SMRs) based on operating experience and projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

At the time of this study there were about 160 small and medium sized nuclear power reactors (referred to as SMRs) in operation worldwide, and about 25 more under construction. Operation and maintenance costs for operating SMRs represent a substantial portion of the cost of electricity produced. Of these costs, the direct and indirect cost of staff represents the major cost component. In recent years, particularly since 1990, there has been increased interest in SMRs by many developing countries wishing to take advantage of nuclear power and several small and medium reactor designs are in various stages of development. To enhance the economic competitive position of SMRs relative to alternative methods of electricity generation, it is essential to ensure that new SMRs can be operated reliably and efficiently using the optimum number of staff. This publication reviews the lessons learned from the reactor operation, and the insights gained through the design of new SMRs, with a view to optimizing staffing in order to improve overall plant economics without compromising safety.This publication is intended to evaluate the estimated staffing size of various SMRs, the staff qualification and training required for the operation of future SMRs. and the key issues which impact the staffing requirements that should be considered in the development and deployment of future SMRs

An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai-Chuan Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William G. Bennett

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

2018-03-01

Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

Understanding the relationship between Kano model's customer satisfaction scores and self-stated requirements importance.

Science.gov (United States)

Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O C; Hashim, Nor Laily

2016-01-01

Customer satisfaction is the result of product quality and viability. The place of the perceived satisfaction of users/customers for a software product cannot be neglected especially in today competitive market environment as it drives the loyalty of customers and promotes high profitability and return on investment. Therefore understanding the importance of requirements as it is associated with the satisfaction of users/customers when their requirements are met is worth the pain considering. It is necessary to know the relationship between customer satisfactions when their requirements are met (or their dissatisfaction when their requirements are unmet) and the importance of such requirement. So many works have been carried out on customer satisfaction in connection with the importance of requirements but the relationship between customer satisfaction scores (coefficients) of the Kano model and users/customers self-stated requirements importance have not been sufficiently explored. In this study, an attempt is made to unravel the underlying relationship existing between Kano model's customer satisfaction indexes and users/customers self reported requirements importance. The results of the study indicate some interesting associations between these considered variables. These bivariate associations reveal that customer satisfaction index (SI), and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) and customer dissatisfaction index (DI) and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) are highly correlated (r = 96 %) and thus ASC can be used in place of either SI or DI in representing customer satisfaction scores. Also, these Kano model's customer satisfaction variables (SI, DI, and ASC) are each associated with self-stated requirements importance (IMP). Further analysis indicates that the value customers or users place on requirements that are met or on features that are incorporated into a product influences the level of satisfaction such customers derive from the product. The

The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

1991-01-01

The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, Walter E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fellner, Karen Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeffers, Robert Fredric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silver, Emily [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Villa, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engelke, Peter [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Burrow, Mat [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Keith, Bruce [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States)

2016-01-01

The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on

Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, F.; Maisch, M.; Rothenbühler, C.; Hoelzle, M.; Haeberli, W.

2007-02-01

The observed rapid glacier wastage in the European Alps during the past 20 years already has strong impacts on the natural environment (rock fall, lake formation) as well as on human activities (tourism, hydro-power production, etc.) and poses several new challenges also for glacier monitoring. With a further increase of global mean temperature in the future, it is likely that Alpine glaciers and the high-mountain environment as an entire system will further develop into a state of imbalance. Hence, the assessment of future glacier geometries is a valuable prerequisite for various impact studies. In order to calculate and visualize in a consistent manner future glacier extent for a large number of individual glaciers (> 100) according to a given climate change scenario, we have developed an automated and simple but robust approach that is based on an empirical relationship between glacier size and the steady-state accumulation area ratio (AAR 0) in the Alps. The model requires digital glacier outlines and a digital elevation model (DEM) only and calculates new glacier geometries from a given shift of the steady-state equilibrium line altitude (ELA 0) by means of hypsographic modelling. We have calculated changes in number, area and volume for 3062 individual glacier units in Switzerland and applied six step changes in ELA 0 (from + 100 to + 600 m) combined with four different values of the AAR 0 (0.5, 0.6, 0.67, 0.75). For an AAR 0 of 0.6 and an ELA 0 rise of 200 m (400 m) we calculate a total area loss of - 54% (- 80%) and a corresponding volume loss of - 50% (- 78%) compared to the 1973 glacier extent. In combination with a geocoded satellite image, the future glacier outlines are also used for automated rendering of perspective visualisations. This is a very attractive tool for communicating research results to the general public. Our study is illustrated for a test site in the Upper Engadine (Switzerland), where landscape changes above timberline play an

Eying the future: Eye movement in past and future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

El Haj, Mohamad; Lenoble, Quentin

2017-06-07

We investigated eye movement during past and future thinking. Participants were invited to retrieve past events and to imagine future events while their scan path was recorded by an eye-tracker. Past thinking triggered more fixation (p thinking. Past and future thinking triggered a similar duration of fixations and saccades, as well as a similar amplitude of saccades. Interestingly, participants rated past thinking as more vivid than future thinking (p thinking seems to be accompanied by an increased number of fixations and saccades. Fixations and saccades in past thinking can be interpreted as an attempt by the visual system to find (through saccades) and activate (through fixations) stored memory representations. The same interpretation can be applied to future thinking as this ability requires activation of past experiences. However, future thinking triggers fewer fixations and saccades than past thinking: this may be due to its decreased demand on visual imagery, but could also be related to a potentially deleterious effect of eye movements on spatial imagery required for future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Requirements for data integration platforms in biomedical research networks: a reference model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganzinger, Matthias; Knaup, Petra

2015-01-01

Biomedical research networks need to integrate research data among their members and with external partners. To support such data sharing activities, an adequate information technology infrastructure is necessary. To facilitate the establishment of such an infrastructure, we developed a reference model for the requirements. The reference model consists of five reference goals and 15 reference requirements. Using the Unified Modeling Language, the goals and requirements are set into relation to each other. In addition, all goals and requirements are described textually in tables. This reference model can be used by research networks as a basis for a resource efficient acquisition of their project specific requirements. Furthermore, a concrete instance of the reference model is described for a research network on liver cancer. The reference model is transferred into a requirements model of the specific network. Based on this concrete requirements model, a service-oriented information technology architecture is derived and also described in this paper.

Hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future: overview of session and proceeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. H. S. Chiew

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of this IAHS symposium and PIAHS proceeding on "hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future". The paper provides a brief review of research on this topic, presents approaches used to account for nonstationarity when extrapolating models to predict the future, and summarises the papers in this session and proceeding.

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Belcastro, Christine M.

2011-01-01

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

Science.gov (United States)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

Requirements for High Level Models Supporting Design Space Exploration in Model-based Systems Engineering

OpenAIRE

Haveman, Steven P.; Bonnema, G. Maarten

2013-01-01

Most formal models are used in detailed design and focus on a single domain. Few effective approaches exist that can effectively tie these lower level models to a high level system model during design space exploration. This complicates the validation of high level system requirements during detailed design. In this paper, we define requirements for a high level model that is firstly driven by key systems engineering challenges present in industry and secondly connects to several formal and d...

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panagiota Galiatsatou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.

2004-01-01

Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation

Information Models, Data Requirements, and Agile Data Curation

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, John S.; Crichton, Dan; Ritschel, Bernd; Hardman, Sean; Joyner, Ron

2015-04-01

The Planetary Data System's next generation system, PDS4, is an example of the successful use of an ontology-based Information Model (IM) to drive the development and operations of a data system. In traditional systems engineering, requirements or statements about what is necessary for the system are collected and analyzed for input into the design stage of systems development. With the advent of big data the requirements associated with data have begun to dominate and an ontology-based information model can be used to provide a formalized and rigorous set of data requirements. These requirements address not only the usual issues of data quantity, quality, and disposition but also data representation, integrity, provenance, context, and semantics. In addition the use of these data requirements during system's development has many characteristics of Agile Curation as proposed by Young et al. [Taking Another Look at the Data Management Life Cycle: Deconstruction, Agile, and Community, AGU 2014], namely adaptive planning, evolutionary development, early delivery, continuous improvement, and rapid and flexible response to change. For example customers can be satisfied through early and continuous delivery of system software and services that are configured directly from the information model. This presentation will describe the PDS4 architecture and its three principle parts: the ontology-based Information Model (IM), the federated registries and repositories, and the REST-based service layer for search, retrieval, and distribution. The development of the IM will be highlighted with special emphasis on knowledge acquisition, the impact of the IM on development and operations, and the use of shared ontologies at multiple governance levels to promote system interoperability and data correlation.

Longitudinal histories as predictors of future diagnoses of domestic abuse: modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Kohane, Isaac S; Mandl, Kenneth D

2009-01-01

Objective To determine whether longitudinal data in patients’ historical records, commonly available in electronic health record systems, can be used to predict a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of domestic abuse. Design Bayesian models, known as intelligent histories, used to predict a patient’s risk of receiving a future diagnosis of abuse, based on the patient’s diagnostic history. Retrospective evaluation of the model’s predictions using an independent testing set. Setting A state-wide claims database covering six years of inpatient admissions to hospital, admissions for observation, and encounters in emergency departments. Population All patients aged over 18 who had at least four years between their earliest and latest visits recorded in the database (561 216 patients). Main outcome measures Timeliness of detection, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and area under the ROC curve. Results 1.04% (5829) of the patients met the narrow case definition for abuse, while 3.44% (19 303) met the broader case definition for abuse. The model achieved sensitive, specific (area under the ROC curve of 0.88), and early (10-30 months in advance, on average) prediction of patients’ future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. Analysis of model parameters showed important differences between sexes in the risks associated with certain diagnoses. Conclusions Commonly available longitudinal diagnostic data can be useful for predicting a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. This modelling approach could serve as the basis for an early warning system to help doctors identify high risk patients for further screening. PMID:19789406

Modeling the Dispersal of Spiny Lobster (Palinurus elephas Larvae: Implications for Future Fisheries Management and Conservation Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Whomersley

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of larval dispersal, population dynamics and connectivity in relation to the management and conservation of commercially important species is vital if existing fisheries are to remain sustainable into the future. Larval dispersal of the commercially exploited spiny lobster, Palinurus elephas, was modeled from Marine Protected Areas located in the southwest of England for a 16-month period using a General Individuals Transport Model (GITM. The model included physical particle advection based on current fields from a 3D hydrodynamics model and a larval behavior module. Our results demonstrate the overall dispersal patterns of P. elephas larvae and highlight populations capable of self-seeding and those which are seemingly reliant on larvae from more distant populations. The results indicate where further research may be required to fully understand how populations of P. elephas are maintained at regional, national and international scales while providing us with the opportunity to discuss the effectiveness of current approaches to conservation and fisheries management.

Modeling requirements for in situ vitrification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKinnon, R.J.; Mecham, D.C.; Hagrman, D.L.; Johnson, R.W.; Murray, P.E.; Slater, C.E.; Marwil, E.S.; Weaver, R.A.; Argyle, M.D.

1991-11-01

This document outlines the requirements for the model being developed at the INEL which will provide analytical support for the ISV technology assessment program. The model includes representations of the electric potential field, thermal transport with melting, gas and particulate release, vapor migration, off-gas combustion and process chemistry. The modeling objectives are to (1) help determine the safety of the process by assessing the air and surrounding soil radionuclide and chemical pollution hazards, the nuclear criticality hazard, and the explosion and fire hazards, (2) help determine the suitability of the ISV process for stabilizing the buried wastes involved, and (3) help design laboratory and field tests and interpret results therefrom

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

2016-01-01

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy Requirements by the Water Sector in the Southwestern US: Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Averyt, K.; Yates, D. N.; Meldrum, J.

2014-12-01

Climate, energy, and water are fundamentally linked such that shifts in one sector have cascading impacts on the others. Consideration of the integrated system is necessary to fully understand the individual risk profile of each sector. In defining vulnerabilities and potential adaptations, the policy and regulatory environment must be considered alongside the biological and physical systems. Take, for example, the Southwestern U.S., a naturally arid system, where water availability is declining as a consequence of climate change and population growth. Adaptations by the water sector to convey, store, and develop new water sources (e.g. desalination, groundwater pumping, water-reuse) are strategies designed to enhance sustainability of the sector. But, the energy requirements embedded in these management techniques pose challenges to electric utilities. West wide, approximately 20% of total electricity generation goes toward supplying and heating water. If future investments made by the water sector to deal with changing supply and demand regimes continue to follow current trends, the dependence of water on energy availability will grow, meaning that the water supply will be increasingly reliant on the electricity system. Here, we use the example of long-term aridity and the recent drought in the Western US to illustrate the tradeoffs and challenges inherent at the nexus between energy and water. We present long-term trends in the energy intensity of water supplies in the Southwestern US, with a specific focus on groundwater systems. Projected energy requirements for proposed and future conveyance systems are discussed. The potential impacts of reduced flows on the Colorado River on the energy demands for groundwater pumping in the Lower Colorado River Basin are highlighted.

The Benefits and Future of Standards: Metadata and Beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Stracke, Christian M.

This article discusses the benefits and future of standards and presents the generic multi-dimensional Reference Model. First the importance and the tasks of interoperability as well as quality development and their relationship are analyzed. Especially in e-Learning their connection and interdependence is evident: Interoperability is one basic requirement for quality development. In this paper, it is shown how standards and specifications are supporting these crucial issues. The upcoming ISO metadata standard MLR (Metadata for Learning Resource) will be introduced and used as example for identifying the requirements and needs for future standardization. In conclusion a vision of the challenges and potentials for e-Learning standardization is outlined.

Dynamic Pathloss Model for Future Mobile Communication Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kumar, Ambuj; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Prasad, Ramjee

2016-01-01

that are essentially static. Therefore, once the signal level drops beyond the predicted values due to any variance in the environmental conditions, very crowded areas may not be catered well enough by the deployed network that had been designed with the static path loss model. This paper proposes an approach......— Future mobile communication networks (MCNs) are expected to be more intelligent and proactive based on new capabilities that increase agility and performance. However, for any successful mobile network service, the dexterity in network deployment is a key factor. The efficiency of the network...... planning depends on how congruent the chosen path loss model and real propagation are. Various path loss models have been developed that predict the signal propagation in various morphological and climatic environments; however they consider only those physical parameters of the network environment...

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

A fuzzy model for exploiting customer requirements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahra Javadirad

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, Quality function deployment (QFD is one of the total quality management tools, where customers’ views and requirements are perceived and using various techniques improves the production requirements and operations. The QFD department, after identification and analysis of the competitors, takes customers’ feedbacks to meet the customers’ demands for the products compared with the competitors. In this study, a comprehensive model for assessing the importance of the customer requirements in the products or services for an organization is proposed. The proposed study uses linguistic variables, as a more comprehensive approach, to increase the precision of the expression evaluations. The importance of these requirements specifies the strengths and weaknesses of the organization in meeting the requirements relative to competitors. The results of these experiments show that the proposed method performs better than the other methods.

MODELLING THE FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ READINESS TO PERFORMING AND INTERPRETIVE ACTIVITY DURING INSTRUMENTAL TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenj Bo

2016-11-01

Full Text Available One of the main fields of training future music teachers in Ukrainian system of higher education is instrumental music one, such as skills of performing and interpretive activities. The aim of the article is to design a model of the future music teachers’ readiness to performing and interpretive activities in musical and instrumental training. The process of modelling is based on several interrelated scientific approaches, including systemic, personality-centered, reflective, competence, active and creative ones. While designing a model of music future teachers’ readinesses to musical interpretive activities, its philosophical, informative, interactive, hedonistic, creative functions are taken into account. Important theoretical and methodological factors are thought to be principles of musical and pedagogical education: culture correspondence and reflection; unity of emotional and conscious, artistic and technical items in musical education; purposeful interrelations and art and pedagogical communication between teachers and students; intensification of music and creative activity. Above-mentioned pedagogical phenomenon is subdivided into four components: motivation-oriented, cognitive-evaluating, performance-independent, creative and productive. For each component relevant criteria and indicators are identified. The stages of future music teachers’ readiness to performing interpretative activity are highlighted: information searching one, which contributes to the implementation of complex diagnostic methods (surveys, questionnaires, testing; regulative and performing one, which is characterized by future music teachers’ immersion into music performing and interpretative activities; operational and reflective stage, which involves activation of mechanisms of future music teachers’ self-knowledge, self-realization, formation of skills of independent artistic and expressive various music genres and styles interpretation; projective and

Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

CERN Document Server

Abarbanel, Henry

2013-01-01

Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zagaglia, Paolo

2010-01-01

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

Using cognitive modeling for requirements engineering in anesthesiology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pott, C; le Feber, J

2005-01-01

Cognitive modeling is a complexity reducing method to describe significant cognitive processes under a specified research focus. Here, a cognitive process model for decision making in anesthesiology is presented and applied in requirements engineering. Three decision making situations of

Future aerospace ground test facility requirements for the Arnold Engineering Development Center

Science.gov (United States)

Kirchner, Mark E.; Baron, Judson R.; Bogdonoff, Seymour M.; Carter, Donald I.; Couch, Lana M.; Fanning, Arthur E.; Heiser, William H.; Koff, Bernard L.; Melnik, Robert E.; Mercer, Stephen C.

1992-01-01

Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) was conceived at the close of World War II, when major new developments in flight technology were presaged by new aerodynamic and propulsion concepts. During the past 40 years, AEDC has played a significant part in the development of many aerospace systems. The original plans were extended through the years by some additional facilities, particularly in the area of propulsion testing. AEDC now has undertaken development of a master plan in an attempt to project requirements and to plan for ground test and computational facilities over the coming 20 to 30 years. This report was prepared in response to an AEDC request that the National Research Council (NRC) assemble a committee to prepare guidance for planning and modernizing AEDC facilities for the development and testing of future classes of aerospace systems as envisaged by the U.S. Air Force.

[Expectations, requirements and limitations of future task sharing between the nursing profession and the medical profession: results from the Care-N Study M-V].

Science.gov (United States)

Dreier, Adina; Rogalski, Hagen; Homeyer, Sabine; Oppermann, Roman Frank; Hingst, Peter; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2015-10-01

The aging population causes a sustained increase in demand of medical and nursing care services. At the same time health care professionals are aging, too. This leads to a growing number of health care gaps. Therefore, the health care system needs to be reformed. This includes a reallocation of task between some of the health care professions. This article addresses developments, potentials and limitations in the context of the future allocation of tasks between the nursing and the medical profession. Aim is to specify the future task sharing between nurses and physicians regarding expectations, requirements and limitations. We conducted questionnaire based Delphi interviews with an interdisciplinary group of experts. (type aggregation of ideas). In the future, to expert’s point of view, nurses will take over routine tasks in the medical and nursing health care supply. Task sharing by substitution is regarded with skepticism by experts. It requires a long time perspective and an early involvement of all stakeholders. Germany is at the beginning of the process of the future task sharing between nurses and physicians. The realization requires a comprehensive political support and further development of concepts including scientific implementation and evaluation.

Design Creativity: Future Directions for Integrated Visualisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jack Steven Goulding

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC sectors are facing unprecedented challenges, not just with increased complexity of projects per se, but design-related integration. This requires stakeholders to radically re-think their existing business models (and thinking that underpins them, but also the technological challenges and skills required to deliver these projects. Whilst opponents will no doubt cite that this is nothing new as the sector as a whole has always had to respond to change; the counter to this is that design ‘creativity’ is now much more dependent on integration from day one. Given this, collaborative processes embedded in Building Information Modelling (BIM models have been proffered as a panacea solution to embrace this change and deliver streamlined integration. The veracity of design teams’ “project data” is increasingly becoming paramount - not only for the coordination of design, processes, engineering services, fabrication, construction, and maintenance; but more importantly, facilitate ‘true’ project integration and interchange – the actualisation of which will require firm consensus and commitment. This Special Issue envisions some of these issues, challenges and opportunities (from a future landscape perspective, by highlighting a raft of concomitant factors, which include: technological challenges, design visualisation and integration, future digital tools, new and anticipated operating environments, and training requirements needed to deliver these aspirations. A fundamental part of this Special Issue’s ‘call’ was to capture best practice in order to demonstrate how design, visualisation and delivery processes (and technologies affect the finished product viz: design outcome, design procedures, production methodologies and construction implementation. In this respect, the use of virtual environments are now particularly effective at supporting the design and delivery processes. In

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-09-10

Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer ground-water flow models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. In the area of scientific modeling, the M&O CRWMS has the following responsibilities: To provide overall management and integration of modeling activities. To provide a framework for focusing modeling and model development. To identify areas that require increased or decreased emphasis. To ensure that the tools necessary to conduct performance assessment are available. These responsibilities are being initiated through a three-step process. It consists of a thorough review of existing models, testing of models which best fit the established requirements, and making recommendations for future development that should be conducted. Future model enhancement will then focus on the models selected during this activity. Furthermore, in order to manage future model development, particularly in those areas requiring substantial enhancement, the three-step process will be updated and reported periodically in the future.

Numerical Modeling of Climate-Chemistry Connections: Recent Developments and Future Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Jöckel

2013-05-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the current state and development of different numerical model classes that are used to simulate the global atmospheric system, particularly Earth’s climate and climate-chemistry connections. The focus is on Chemistry-Climate Models. In general, these serve to examine dynamical and chemical processes in the Earth atmosphere, their feedback, and interaction with climate. Such models have been established as helpful tools in addition to analyses of observational data. Definitions of the global model classes are given and their capabilities as well as weaknesses are discussed. Examples of scientific studies indicate how numerical exercises contribute to an improved understanding of atmospheric behavior. There, the focus is on synergistic investigations combining observations and model results. The possible future developments and challenges are presented, not only from the scientific point of view but also regarding the computer technology and respective consequences for numerical modeling of atmospheric processes. In the future, a stronger cross-linkage of subject-specific scientists is necessary, to tackle the looming challenges. It should link the specialist discipline and applied computer science.

Experiments with data assimilation in comprehensive air quality models: Impacts on model predictions and observation requirements (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Mathur, R.

2009-12-01

Emerging regional scale atmospheric simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions. Sophisticated air quality modeling systems are needed to develop effective abatement strategies that focus on simultaneously controlling multiple criteria pollutants as well as use in providing short term air quality forecasts. In recent years the applications of such models is continuously being extended to address atmospheric pollution phenomenon from local to hemispheric spatial scales over time scales ranging from episodic to annual. The need to represent interactions between physical and chemical atmospheric processes occurring at these disparate spatial and temporal scales requires the use of observation data beyond traditional in-situ networks so that the model simulations can be reasonably constrained. Preliminary applications of assimilation of remote sensing and aloft observations within a comprehensive regional scale atmospheric chemistry-transport modeling system will be presented: (1) A methodology is developed to assimilate MODIS aerosol optical depths in the model to represent the impacts long-range transport associated with the summer 2004 Alaskan fires on surface-level regional fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across the Eastern U.S. The episodic impact of this pollution transport event on PM2.5 concentrations over the eastern U.S. during mid-July 2004, is quantified through the complementary use of the model with remotely-sensed, aloft, and surface measurements; (2) Simple nudging experiments with limited aloft measurements are performed to identify uncertainties in model representations of physical processes and assess the potential use of such measurements in improving the predictive capability of atmospheric chemistry-transport models. The results from these early applications will be discussed in context of uncertainties in the model and in the remote sensing

An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven

Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

2016-04-01

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

Control Architecture Modeling for Future Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heussen, Kai

electricity exchange. However, at the same time, it seems that the overall system design cannot keep up by simply adapting in response to changes, but that also new strategies have to be designed in anticipation. Changes to the electricity markets have been suggested to adapt to the limited predictability...... of wind power, and several new control strategies have been proposed, in particular to enable the control of distributed energy resources, including for example, distributed generation or electric vehicles. Market designs addressing the procurement of balancing resources are highly dependent...... on the operation strategies specifying the resource requirements. How should one decide which control strategy and market configuration is best for a future power system? Most research up to this point has addressed single isolated aspects of this design problem. Those of the ideas that fit with current markets...

A multinational model for CO2 reduction: defining boundaries of future CO2 emissions in nine countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kram, Tom; Hill, Douglas.

1996-01-01

A need to make substantial future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would require major changes in national energy systems. Nine industrialized countries have explored the technical boundaries of CO 2 emission restrictions during the next 40 to 50 years using comparable scenario assumptions and a standard model, MARKAL. Quantitative results for the countries are shown side by side in a set of energy maps that compare the least-cost evolution of the national energy systems by the main factors that contribute to CO 2 emissions. The ability to restrict future CO 2 emissions and the most cost-effective measures for doing so differ among the countries; an international agreement that would mandate substantial emission restrictions among countries by an equal percentage reduction is clearly impossible. The results are a first step toward a basis for allocating such international reductions, and the multinational process by which they were produced provides an example for further international greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. (Author)

The numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models: State of the art and future perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Klingbeil, Knut; Lemarié, Florian; Debreu, Laurent; Burchard, Hans

2018-05-01

The state of the art of the numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is reviewed here. First, some fundamental differences in the hydrodynamics of the coastal ocean, such as the large surface elevation variation compared to the mean water depth, are contrasted against large scale ocean dynamics. Then the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in coastal ocean models as well as in large scale ocean models are presented, including parameterisations for turbulent transports. As steps towards discretisation, coordinate transformations and spatial discretisations based on a finite-volume approach are discussed with focus on the specific requirements for coastal ocean models. As in large scale ocean models, splitting of internal and external modes is essential also for coastal ocean models, but specific care is needed when drying & flooding of intertidal flats is included. As one obvious characteristic of coastal ocean models, open boundaries occur and need to be treated in a way that correct model forcing from outside is transmitted to the model domain without reflecting waves from the inside. Here, also new developments in two-way nesting are presented. Single processes such as internal inertia-gravity waves, advection and turbulence closure models are discussed with focus on the coastal scales. Some overview on existing hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is given, including their extensions towards non-hydrostatic models. Finally, an outlook on future perspectives is made.

Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

2008-09-16

including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

Requirements-level semantics and model checking of object-oriented statecharts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eshuis, H.; Jansen, D.N.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

2002-01-01

In this paper we define a requirements-level execution semantics for object-oriented statecharts and show how properties of a system specified by these statecharts can be model checked using tool support for model checkers. Our execution semantics is requirements-level because it uses the perfect

Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

Science.gov (United States)

Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

2017-12-01

The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

2013-01-01

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben

2015-01-01

. There are however many advantages that could be harvested from such knowledge like size, cost and efficiency improvements. In this paper a recently proposed power requirement model for active loudspeakers is experimentally validated and the model is expanded to include the closed and vented type enclosures...

Solid Waste Management Requirements Definition for Advanced Life Support Missions: Results

Science.gov (United States)

Alazraki, Michael P.; Hogan, John; Levri, Julie; Fisher, John; Drysdale, Alan

2002-01-01

Prior to determining what Solid Waste Management (SWM) technologies should be researched and developed by the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Project for future missions, there is a need to define SWM requirements. Because future waste streams will be highly mission-dependent, missions need to be defined prior to developing SWM requirements. The SWM Working Group has used the mission architecture outlined in the System Integration, Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) Element Reference Missions Document (RMD) as a starting point in the requirement development process. The missions examined include the International Space Station (ISS), a Mars Dual Lander mission, and a Mars Base. The SWM Element has also identified common SWM functionalities needed for future missions. These functionalities include: acceptance, transport, processing, storage, monitoring and control, and disposal. Requirements in each of these six areas are currently being developed for the selected missions. This paper reviews the results of this ongoing effort and identifies mission-dependent resource recovery requirements.

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, Lisa

2007-01-01

Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

2016-01-28

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Science.gov (United States)

Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn J. Draeger

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Santos

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

2014-12-01

General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

A Compositional Knowledge Level Process Model of Requirements Engineering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herlea, D.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

2002-01-01

In current literature few detailed process models for Requirements Engineering are presented: usually high-level activities are distinguished, without a more precise specification of each activity. In this paper the process of Requirements Engineering has been analyzed using knowledge-level

Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khamma Homsysavath

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

2007-01-01

Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Eve...... requirements, where the system to be built must explicitly support the interaction between people within a pervasive cooperative workflow execution. A case study from a real project is used to illustrate the proposed approach....

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

2016-04-01

To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A model for the future. Certified nurse-midwives replace residents and house staff in hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Ament, L A; Hanson, L

1998-01-01

In one model of the future, certified nurse-midwives (CNMs) replace most obstetric residents and house staff in hospitals. This model offers numerous benefits, such as cost containment and quality outcomes. Furthermore, its application could open opportunities for educating CNMs and residents in a truly collaborative model in an educational setting and begin to balance the ratio of physicians to CNMs in the care of low-risk populations. This model was used with some success in the late 1980s to early 1990s at an inner-city Midwestern medical center. By definition, CNMs are educated in the two disciplines of nursing and midwifery and possess evidence of certification according to the requirements of the American College of Nurse Midwives (ACNM, 1978). Nurse-midwifery practice is the independent management of care of normal newborns and women, antepartally, intrapartally, postpartally, and/or gynecologically. Certified Nurse Midwifery practice occurs within a health care system that provides for medical consultation, collaborative management, and referral (ACNM, 1978). Physician and CNM roles differ. Certified nurse-midwives focus on supporting the process of normal birth, whereas physicians focus more on the management of complications. There are data that suggest that CNM outcomes are equivalent to those of physicians (American Nurses Association, 1992; Thompson, 1986; Wilson, 1989); that CNM costs are less than those of physicians (Bell & Mills, 1989; Cherry & Foster, 1982; Gravely & Littlefield, 1992; Rooks, 1986); and that the cost of educating CNMs is much less than the cost of educating physicians (Safriet, 1992). Within an environment of health care reform and cost containment, CNMs can replace residents and house staff in hospitals in the care of low-risk clients and work in consultation with physicians for the care of high-risk clients. This article compares medical education and nurse-midwifery education, reviews nurse-midwifery outcome data, and discusses

Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

2007-01-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

Application of Temperature Index Model to Assess the Future Hydrological Regime of the Glacierized Catchments in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Kayastha, R.; Kayastha, R. B.

2017-12-01

Unavailability of hydro meteorological data in the Himalayan regions is challenging on understanding the flow regimes. Temperature index model is simple yet the powerful glacio-hydrological model to simulate the discharge in the glacierized basin. Modified Positive Degree Day (MPDD) Model Version 2.0 is a grid-ded based semi distributed model with baseflow module is a robust melt modelling tools to estimate the discharge. MPDD model uses temperature and precipitation as a forcing datasets to simulate the discharge and also to obtain the snowmelt, icemelt, rain and baseflow contribution on total discharge. In this study two glacierized, Marsyangdi and Langtang catchment were investigated for the future hydrological regimes. Marsyangdi encompasses an area of 4026.19 sq. km with 20% glaciated area, whereas Langtang catchment with area of 354.64 sq. km with 36% glaciated area is studied to examine for the future climatic scenarios. The model simulates discharge well for the observed period; (1992-1998) in Marsyangdi and from (2007-2013) in Langtang catchment. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the both catchment were above 0.75 with the volume difference less than - 8 %. The snow and ice melts contribution in Marsyangdi were 4.7% and 10.2% whereas in Langtang the contribution is 15.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Rain contribution ( 40%) is higher than the baseflow contribution in total discharge in both basins. The future river discharge is also predicted using the future climate data from the regional climate models (RCMs) of CORDEX South Asia experiments for the medium stabilization scenario RCP4.5 and very high radiative forcing scenario RCP8.5 after bias correction. The projected future discharge of both catchment shows slightly increase in both scenarios with increase of snow and ice melt contribution on discharge. The result generated from the model can be utilized to understand the future hydrological regimes of the glacierized catchment also the impact of

Past, Present, and Future Anthropogenic Emissions over Asia: a Regional Air Quality Modeling Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Jung-Hun; Jung, Bujeon; Choi, Ki-Chul; Seo, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae Hyung; Park, Rokjin J.; Youn, Daeok; Jeong, Jaein; Moon, Byung-Kwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2010-05-01

Climate change will also affect future regional air quality which has potential human health, ecosystem, and economic implications. To analyze the impacts of climate change on Asian air quality, the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea) integrated modeling framework was developed based on global-to-regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models. In this study, we developed emission inventories for the modeling framework for 1980~2100 with an emphasis on Asia emissions. Two emission processing systems which have functions of emission projection, spatial/temporal allocation, and chemical speciation have been also developed in support of atmospheric chemistry models including GEOS-Chem and Models-3/CMAQ. Asia-based emission estimates, projection factors, temporal allocation parameters were combined to improve regional modeling capability of past, present and future air quality over Asia. The global CO emissions show a 23% decrease from the years 1980 to 2000. For the future CO (from year 2000 to 2100), the A2 scenario shows a 95% increase due to the B40 (Residential-Biofuel) sector of Western Africa, Eastern Africa and East Asia and the F51 (Transport Road-Fossil fuel) sector of Middle East, USA and South Asia. The B1 scenario, however, shows a 79% decrease of emissions due to B40 and F51 sectors of East Asia, South Asia and USA for the same period. In many cases, Asian emissions play important roles for global emission increase or decrease depending on the IPCC scenarios considered. The regional ozone forming potential will be changed due to different VOC/NOx emission ratio changes in the future. More similarities and differences of Asian emission characteristics, in comparison with its global counterpart, are investigated.

Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cyril Montabert

2007-02-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Science.gov (United States)

Visconti, Piero; Pressey, Robert L.; Giorgini, Daniele; Maiorano, Luigi; Bakkenes, Michel; Boitani, Luigi; Alkemade, Rob; Falcucci, Alessandra; Chiozza, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo

2011-01-01

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world. PMID:21844048

Future evolution in a backreaction model and the analogous scalar field cosmology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ali, Amna; Majumdar, A.S., E-mail: amnaalig@gmail.com, E-mail: archan@bose.res.in [S. N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences, Block JD, Sector-III, Salt Lake, Kolkata 700106 (India)

2017-01-01

We investigate the future evolution of the universe using the Buchert framework for averaged backreaction in the context of a two-domain partition of the universe. We show that this approach allows for the possibility of the global acceleration vanishing at a finite future time, provided that none of the subdomains accelerate individually. The model at large scales is analogously described in terms of a homogeneous scalar field emerging with a potential that is fixed and free from phenomenological parametrization. The dynamics of this scalar field is explored in the analogous FLRW cosmology. We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, and Cosmic Microwave Background to constrain the parameters of the model for a viable cosmology, providing the corresponding likelihood contours.

Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Chien-Liang; Chiang, Shu-Mei; Hung, Jui-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Lung

2006-07-01

This article sets out to investigate if the TAIFEX has adequate clearing margin adjustment system via unconditional coverage, conditional coverage test and mean relative scaled bias to assess the performance of three value-at-risk (VaR) models (i.e., the TAIFEX, RiskMetrics and GARCH-t). For the same model, original and absolute returns are compared to explore which can accurately capture the true risk. For the same return, daily and tiered adjustment methods are examined to evaluate which corresponds to risk best. The results indicate that the clearing margin adjustment of the TAIFEX cannot reflect true risks. The adjustment rules, including the use of absolute return and tiered adjustment of the clearing margin, have distorted VaR-based margin requirements. Besides, the results suggest that the TAIFEX should use original return to compute VaR and daily adjustment system to set clearing margin. This approach would improve the funds operation efficiency and the liquidity of the futures markets.

Architecture for Cognitive Networking within NASA's Future Space Communications Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Gilbert; Eddy, Wesley M.; Johnson, Sandra K.; Barnes, James; Brooks, David

2016-01-01

Future space mission concepts and designs pose many networking challenges for command, telemetry, and science data applications with diverse end-to-end data delivery needs. For future end-to-end architecture designs, a key challenge is meeting expected application quality of service requirements for multiple simultaneous mission data flows with options to use diverse onboard local data buses, commercial ground networks, and multiple satellite relay constellations in LEO, GEO, MEO, or even deep space relay links. Effectively utilizing a complex network topology requires orchestration and direction that spans the many discrete, individually addressable computer systems, which cause them to act in concert to achieve the overall network goals. The system must be intelligent enough to not only function under nominal conditions, but also adapt to unexpected situations, and reorganize or adapt to perform roles not originally intended for the system or explicitly programmed. This paper describes an architecture enabling the development and deployment of cognitive networking capabilities into the envisioned future NASA space communications infrastructure. We begin by discussing the need for increased automation, including inter-system discovery and collaboration. This discussion frames the requirements for an architecture supporting cognitive networking for future missions and relays, including both existing endpoint-based networking models and emerging information-centric models. From this basis, we discuss progress on a proof-of-concept implementation of this architecture, and results of implementation and initial testing of a cognitive networking on-orbit application on the SCaN Testbed attached to the International Space Station.

A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

2002-01-01

This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

2010-01-01

We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

2010-01-01

Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

Work Requirements in Transformation, Competence for the Future: A Critical Look at the Consequences of Current Positions. IAB Labour Market Research Topics No. 45.

Science.gov (United States)

Plath, Hans-Eberhard

In Germany and elsewhere, the literature on current and future work requirements rarely discusses the effects of globalization, internationalization, computerization, and other factors from the point of view of workers. Some have suggested that a blurring of limits will be one of the main changes in work in the future. This blurring will involve…

On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Hargreaves

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

STRUCTURAL-FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS COMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE ECONOMIC SPECIALISTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zotova-Sadylo Yelena Yurievna

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose The structural-functional model of professional business communication development of future economic specialists is presented by the author. Its basic components, purpose, function, principles, methods of its practical realization are characterized in the article. Methodology The considered model is aimed at providing advanced and competent levels of professional business communication / cross-cultural business communication of future specialists in economics by means of relevant to the problem special course within a system of humanitarian cycle disciplines, and integrated class hours and extracurricular activity. The main feature of the special course is its integrated character determined by the necessity to synthesize contents of humanitarian cycle disciplines for the purpose of training material comprehensive awareness. Results In this context focused professional extracurricular activity carried out in strict accordance with an overall objective of young specialist training is effective. Successful implementation of structural functional model is possible providing that integrated approach to creative specialists training by means of entire educational and extracurricular activity system.

Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

2018-01-01

Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

Higgs production at future e + e - colliders in the Georgi-Machacek model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bin; Han, Zhi-Long; Liao, Yi

2018-02-01

We study how the dominant single and double SM-like Higgs ( h) production at future e + e - colliders is modified in the Georgi-Machacek (GM) model. On imposing theoretical, indirect and direct constraints, significant deviations of h-couplings from their SM values are still possible; for instance, the Higgs-gauge coupling can be corrected by a factor κ hV V ∈ [0 .93 , 1 .15] in the allowed parameter space. For the Higgs-strahlung e + e - → hZ and vector boson fusion processes {e}+{e}-\\to hν \\overline{ν} , he + e -, the cross section could increase by 32% or decrease by 13%. In the case of associated production with a top quark pair {e}+{e}-\\to ht\\overline{t} , the cross section can be enhanced up to several times when the custodial triplet scalar H 3 0 is resonantly produced. In the meanwhile, the double Higgs production {e}+{e}-\\to hhZ(hhν \\overline{ν}) can be maximally enhanced by one order of magnitude at the resonant H 1,3 0 production. We also include exclusion limits expected from future LHC runs at higher energy and luminosity and discuss their further constraints on the relevant model parameters. We find that the GM model can result in likely measurable deviations of Higgs production from the SM at future e + e - colliders.

An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

1994-08-01

This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

Basic Requirements for Systems Software Research and Development

Science.gov (United States)

Kuszmaul, Chris; Nitzberg, Bill

1996-01-01

Our success over the past ten years evaluating and developing advanced computing technologies has been due to a simple research and development (R/D) model. Our model has three phases: (a) evaluating the state-of-the-art, (b) identifying problems and creating innovations, and (c) developing solutions, improving the state- of-the-art. This cycle has four basic requirements: a large production testbed with real users, a diverse collection of state-of-the-art hardware, facilities for evalua- tion of emerging technologies and development of innovations, and control over system management on these testbeds. Future research will be irrelevant and future products will not work if any of these requirements is eliminated. In order to retain our effectiveness, the numerical aerospace simulator (NAS) must replace out-of-date production testbeds in as timely a fashion as possible, and cannot afford to ignore innovative designs such as new distributed shared memory machines, clustered commodity-based computers, and multi-threaded architectures.

Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

2016-11-01

The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Job Demands–Resources model: Challenges for future research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evangelia Demerouti

2011-05-01

Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD–R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studies on the JD–R model were reviewed to enlighten the health and motivational processes suggested by the model. Main findings: Next to the confirmation of the two suggested processes of the JD–R model, the studies of the special issue showed that the model can be used to predict work-place bullying, incidences of upper respiratory track infection, work-based identity, and early retirement intentions. Moreover, whilst psychological safety climate could be considered as a hypothetical precursor of job demands and resources, compassion satisfaction moderated the health process of the model. Contribution/value-add: The findings of previous studies and the studies of the special issue were integrated in the JD–R model that can be used to predict well-being and performance at work. New avenues for future research were suggested. Practical/managerial implications: The JD–R model is a framework that can be used for organisations to improve employee health and motivation, whilst simultaneously improving various organisational outcomes.

Models of Human Information Requirements: "When Reasonable Aiding Systems Disagree"

Science.gov (United States)

Corker, Kevin; Pisanich, Gregory; Shafto, Michael (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Aircraft flight management and Air Traffic Control (ATC) automation are under development to maximize the economy of flight and to increase the capacity of the terminal area airspace while maintaining levels of flight safety equal to or better than current system performance. These goals are being realized by the introduction of flight management automation aiding and operations support systems on the flight deck and by new developments of ATC aiding systems that seek to optimize scheduling of aircraft while potentially reducing required separation and accounting for weather and wake vortex turbulence. Aiding systems on both the flight deck and the ground operate through algorithmic functions on models of the aircraft and of the airspace. These models may differ from each other as a result of variations in their models of the immediate environment. The resultant flight operations or ATC commands may differ in their response requirements (e.g. different preferred descent speeds or descent initiation points). The human operators in the system must then interact with the automation to reconcile differences and resolve conflicts. We have developed a model of human performance including cognitive functions (decision-making, rule-based reasoning, procedural interruption recovery and forgetting) that supports analysis of the information requirements for resolution of flight aiding and ATC conflicts. The model represents multiple individuals in the flight crew and in ATC. The model is supported in simulation on a Silicon Graphics' workstation using Allegro Lisp. Design guidelines for aviation automation aiding systems have been developed using the model's specification of information and team procedural requirements. Empirical data on flight deck operations from full-mission flight simulation are provided to support the model's predictions. The paper describes the model, its development and implementation, the simulation test of the model predictions, and the empirical

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland); Ikonen, A.

2014-03-15

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T.; Ikonen, A.

2014-03-01

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified with other

On Early Conflict Identification by Requirements Modeling of Energy System Control Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heussen, Kai; Gehrke, Oliver; Niemann, Hans Henrik

2015-01-01

issues early. For requirements formulation of control structures, cyber and physical aspects need to be jointly represented to express interdependencies, check for consistency and discover potentially conflicting requirements. Early identification of potential conflicts may prevent larger problems...... at later design stages. However, languages employed for requirements modeling today do not offer the expressiveness necessary to represent control purposes in relation to domain level interactions and therefore miss several types of interdependencies. This paper introduces the idea of control structure...... modeling for early requirements checking using a suitable modeling language, and illustrates how this approach enables the identification of several classes of controller conflict....

Strategic forces: Future requirements and options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Speed, R.D.

1990-11-01

In the wake of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the apparent ending of the Cold War, there have been renewed calls for radical cuts in US strategic forces to levels far below the 10,000 or so warheads allowed each side under the current START proposal. Since it now appears that NATO for the first time will have the capability to defeat a Soviet conventional attack without the necessity of threatening to resort to nuclear weapons, this should pave the way for the rethinking of US strategy and the reduction of US strategic weapons requirements. In this new environment, it seems plausible that, with a modification of the Flexible Response doctrine to forego attempts to disarm the Soviet Union, deterrence could be maintained with 1500 or so survivable strategic weapons. With a new strategy that confined US strategic weapons to the role of deterring the use of nuclear weapons by other countries, a survivable force of about 500 weapons would seem sufficient. With this premise, the implications for the US strategic force structure are examined for two cases: a treaty that allows each side 3000 warheads and one that allows each side 1000 warheads. In Part 1 of this paper, the weapons requirements for deterrence are examined in light of recent changes in the geopolitical environment. In Part 2, it is assumed that the President and Congress have decided that deep cuts in strategic forces are acceptable. 128 refs., 12 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Tringali, Arthur

1997-01-01

... associated with military training exercises. The model combines the business practice of Material Requirements Planning and the commercial spreadsheet software capabilities of Lotus 1-2-3 to calculate the requirements for food, consumable...

Requirements for high level models supporting design space exploration in model-based systems engineering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haveman, Steven; Bonnema, Gerrit Maarten

2013-01-01

Most formal models are used in detailed design and focus on a single domain. Few effective approaches exist that can effectively tie these lower level models to a high level system model during design space exploration. This complicates the validation of high level system requirements during

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Hughes

Full Text Available Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI, Republic of Ireland (RoI and Scotland.CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i smoking prevalence and (ii physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84. In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

Modelling and Designing Cryogenic Hydrogen Tanks for Future Aircraft Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Winnefeld

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In the near future, the challenges to reduce the economic and social dependency on fossil fuels must be faced increasingly. A sustainable and efficient energy supply based on renewable energies enables large-scale applications of electro-fuels for, e.g., the transport sector. The high gravimetric energy density makes liquefied hydrogen a reasonable candidate for energy storage in a light-weight application, such as aviation. Current aircraft structures are designed to accommodate jet fuel and gas turbines allowing a limited retrofitting only. New designs, such as the blended-wing-body, enable a more flexible integration of new storage technologies and energy converters, e.g., cryogenic hydrogen tanks and fuel cells. Against this background, a tank-design model is formulated, which considers geometrical, mechanical and thermal aspects, as well as specific mission profiles while considering a power supply by a fuel cell. This design approach enables the determination of required tank mass and storage density, respectively. A new evaluation value is defined including the vented hydrogen mass throughout the flight enabling more transparent insights on mass shares. Subsequently, a systematic approach in tank partitioning leads to associated compromises regarding the tank weight. The analysis shows that cryogenic hydrogen tanks are highly competitive with kerosene tanks in terms of overall mass, which is further improved by the use of a fuel cell.

A drill-soil system modelization for future Mars exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Finzi, A. E.; Lavagna, M.; Rocchitelli, G.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a first approach to the problem of modeling a drilling process to be carried on in the space environment by a dedicated payload. Systems devoted to work in space present very strict requirements in many different fields such as thermal response, electric power demand, reliability and so on. Thus, models devoted to the operational behaviour simulation represent a fundamental help in the design phase and give a great improvement in the final product quality. As the required power is the crucial constraint within drilling devices, the tool-soil interaction modelization and simulation are finalized to the computation of the power demand as a function of both the drill and the soil parameters. An accurate study of the tool and the soil separately has been firstly carried on and, secondly their interaction has been analyzed. The Dee-Dri system, designed by Tecnospazio and to be part of the lander components in the NASA's Mars Sample Return Mission, has been taken as the tool reference. The Deep-Drill system is a complex rotary tool devoted to the soil perforation and sample collection; it has to operate in a Martian zone made of rocks similar to the terrestrial basalt, then the modelization is restricted to the interaction analysis between the tool and materials belonging to the rock set. The tool geometric modelization has been faced by a finite element approach with a Langrangian formulation: for the static analysis a refined model is assumed considering both the actual geometry of the head and the rod screws; a simplified model has been used to deal with the dynamic analysis. The soil representation is based on the Mohr-Coulomb crack criterion and an Eulerian approach has been selected to model it. However, software limitations in dealing with the tool-soil interface definition required assuming a Langrangian formulation for the soil too. The interaction between the soil and the tool has been modeled by extending the two-dimensional Nishimatsu

A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezhi Zhang

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Larry J.

After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

Future gripper needs in nuclear environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ham, A.C. van der; Holweg, E.G.M.; Jongkind, W.

1993-01-01

This paper is concerned with the requirements of teleoperated grippers for work in hazardous situations and nuclear environments. A survey among users in the nuclear industry was performed by means of questionnaires of the present grippers in use and the future gripper needs. The survey covers reliability, tasks to be done, object properties, accuracy, environmental requirements, required grasps, mechanical and sensorial requirements. The paper will present the proposal for a future gripper. (author)

Characterizing the EPODE logic model: unravelling the past and informing the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Koperen, T M; Jebb, S A; Summerbell, C D; Visscher, T L S; Romon, M; Borys, J M; Seidell, J C

2013-02-01

EPODE ('Ensemble Prévenons l'Obésité De Enfants' or 'Together let's Prevent Childhood Obesity') is a large-scale, centrally coordinated, capacity-building approach for communities to implement effective and sustainable strategies to prevent childhood obesity. Since 2004, EPODE has been implemented in over 500 communities in six countries. Although based on emergent practice and scientific knowledge, EPODE, as many community programs, lacks a logic model depicting key elements of the approach. The objective of this study is to gain insight in the dynamics and key elements of EPODE and to represent these in a schematic logic model. EPODE's process manuals and documents were collected and interviews were held with professionals involved in the planning and delivery of EPODE. Retrieved data were coded, themed and placed in a four-level logic model. With input from international experts, this model was scaled down to a concise logic model covering four critical components: political commitment, public and private partnerships, social marketing and evaluation. The EPODE logic model presented here can be used as a reference for future and follow-up research; to support future implementation of EPODE in communities; as a tool in the engagement of stakeholders; and to guide the construction of a locally tailored evaluation plan. © 2012 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Conducting requirements analyses for research using routinely collected health data: a model driven approach.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lusignan, Simon; Cashman, Josephine; Poh, Norman; Michalakidis, Georgios; Mason, Aaron; Desombre, Terry; Krause, Paul

2012-01-01

Medical research increasingly requires the linkage of data from different sources. Conducting a requirements analysis for a new application is an established part of software engineering, but rarely reported in the biomedical literature; and no generic approaches have been published as to how to link heterogeneous health data. Literature review, followed by a consensus process to define how requirements for research, using, multiple data sources might be modeled. We have developed a requirements analysis: i-ScheDULEs - The first components of the modeling process are indexing and create a rich picture of the research study. Secondly, we developed a series of reference models of progressive complexity: Data flow diagrams (DFD) to define data requirements; unified modeling language (UML) use case diagrams to capture study specific and governance requirements; and finally, business process models, using business process modeling notation (BPMN). These requirements and their associated models should become part of research study protocols.

Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-01-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

OpenAIRE

A.M. Woodd

1999-01-01

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

Cutting Edge PBPK Models and Analyses: Providing the Basis for Future Modeling Efforts and Bridges to Emerging Toxicology Paradigms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane C. Caldwell

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK models are used for predictions of internal or target dose from environmental and pharmacologic chemical exposures. Their use in human risk assessment is dependent on the nature of databases (animal or human used to develop and test them, and includes extrapolations across species, experimental paradigms, and determination of variability of response within human populations. Integration of state-of-the science PBPK modeling with emerging computational toxicology models is critical for extrapolation between in vitro exposures, in vivo physiologic exposure, whole organism responses, and long-term health outcomes. This special issue contains papers that can provide the basis for future modeling efforts and provide bridges to emerging toxicology paradigms. In this overview paper, we present an overview of the field and introduction for these papers that includes discussions of model development, best practices, risk-assessment applications of PBPK models, and limitations and bridges of modeling approaches for future applications. Specifically, issues addressed include: (a increased understanding of human variability of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in the population, (b exploration of mode of action hypotheses (MOA, (c application of biological modeling in the risk assessment of individual chemicals and chemical mixtures, and (d identification and discussion of uncertainties in the modeling process.

FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

2015-02-01

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

Science.gov (United States)

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

2016-09-19

The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Future Network Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wessing, Henrik; Bozorgebrahimi, Kurosh; Belter, Bartosz

2015-01-01

This study identifies key requirements for NRENs towards future network architectures that become apparent as users become more mobile and have increased expectations in terms of availability of data. In addition, cost saving requirements call for federated use of, in particular, the optical...

The Structural Model of Future Employees̕ Personal and Professional Self-Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanna G. Garanina

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: the main purpose of this paper is to present the theoretical and practical aspects of professional and personal self-development of future professionals, the construction of the structural model and the determination of levels of self-development. The study of personal and professional self-development attributes of future professionals is of special interest to modern researchers, as well as for practicing psychologists studying the problem of self-realization and self-improvement in their professional fields. This article discusses the theoretical approaches to the study of the model and structure of personal and professional self- development. It analyses the results of the comparative empirical study of the features of students self-development with various levels of formation of motivational-semantic sphere. The authors carried out the detailed theoretical analysis of the problem of personal and professional self-development. They offer the structural model of the process, including the set of interrelated value-semantic, reflexive and regulatory components. The study revealed that the personal and professional self-development is a comprehensive system based on the active personal transformation being carried out in the course of behavior and activities self-regulation of their behavior, designed to achieve personal and professional goals. Materials and Methods: diagnostic methods were used to identify the level of self-development and personal qualities of students. Processing of the data was carried out by means of correlation, factor and cluster analysis. Results: this article considers the results of the empirical study conducted with the help of psycho-diagnostic methods aimed at identifying the level of self-development of future professionals, its structure and features. The scientifically valid results are obtained, allowing to identify the levels of self-development of students as well as to identify factors af

Drivers' communicative interactions: on-road observations and modelling for integration in future automation systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Portouli, Evangelia; Nathanael, Dimitris; Marmaras, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Social interactions with other road users are an essential component of the driving activity and may prove critical in view of future automation systems; still up to now they have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. In this paper, it is argued that drivers base their anticipations about the traffic scene to a large extent on observations of social behaviour of other 'animate human-vehicles'. It is further argued that in cases of uncertainty, drivers seek to establish a mutual situational awareness through deliberate communicative interactions. A linguistic model is proposed for modelling these communicative interactions. Empirical evidence from on-road observations and analysis of concurrent running commentary by 25 experienced drivers support the proposed model. It is suggested that the integration of a social interactions layer based on illocutionary acts in future driving support and automation systems will improve their performance towards matching human driver's expectations. Practitioner Summary: Interactions between drivers on the road may play a significant role in traffic coordination. On-road observations and running commentaries are presented as empirical evidence to support a model of such interactions; incorporation of drivers' interactions in future driving support and automation systems may improve their performance towards matching driver's expectations.

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Andrew M.; Peck, Jeffrey A.; Stewart, Eric C.

2018-01-01

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation

US computer research networks: Current and future

Science.gov (United States)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

A hierarchical modeling methodology for the definition and selection of requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Dufresne, Stephane

This dissertation describes the development of a requirements analysis methodology that takes into account the concept of operations and the hierarchical decomposition of aerospace systems. At the core of the methodology, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to ensure the traceability between the qualitative and quantitative information present in the hierarchical model. The proposed methodology is implemented to the requirements definition of a hurricane tracker Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. Three research objectives are identified in this work; (1) improve the requirements mapping process by matching the stakeholder expectations with the concept of operations, systems and available resources; (2) reduce the epistemic uncertainty surrounding the requirements and requirements mapping; and (3) improve the requirements down-selection process by taking into account the level of importance of the criteria and the available resources. Several challenges are associated with the identification and definition of requirements. The complexity of the system implies that a large number of requirements are needed to define the systems. These requirements are defined early in the conceptual design, where the level of knowledge is relatively low and the level of uncertainty is large. The proposed methodology intends to increase the level of knowledge and reduce the level of uncertainty by guiding the design team through a structured process. To address these challenges, a new methodology is created to flow-down the requirements from the stakeholder expectations to the systems alternatives. A taxonomy of requirements is created to classify the information gathered during the problem definition. Subsequently, the operational and systems functions and measures of effectiveness are integrated to a hierarchical model to allow the traceability of the information. Monte Carlo methods are used to evaluate the variations of the hierarchical model elements and consequently reduce the

Input data requirements for performance modelling and monitoring of photovoltaic plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gavriluta, Anamaria Florina; Spataru, Sergiu; Sera, Dezso

2018-01-01

This work investigates the input data requirements in the context of performance modeling of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) systems. The analysis focuses on the PVWatts performance model, well suited for on-line performance monitoring of PV strings, due to its low number of parameters and high......, modelling the performance of the PV modules at high irradiances requires a dataset of only a few hundred samples in order to obtain a power estimation accuracy of ~1-2\\%....

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Ge Hu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Fusing Quantitative Requirements Analysis with Model-based Systems Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Heron, Vance A.; Jenkins, J. Steven

2006-01-01

A vision is presented for fusing quantitative requirements analysis with model-based systems engineering. This vision draws upon and combines emergent themes in the engineering milieu. "Requirements engineering" provides means to explicitly represent requirements (both functional and non-functional) as constraints and preferences on acceptable solutions, and emphasizes early-lifecycle review, analysis and verification of design and development plans. "Design by shopping" emphasizes revealing the space of options available from which to choose (without presuming that all selection criteria have previously been elicited), and provides means to make understandable the range of choices and their ramifications. "Model-based engineering" emphasizes the goal of utilizing a formal representation of all aspects of system design, from development through operations, and provides powerful tool suites that support the practical application of these principles. A first step prototype towards this vision is described, embodying the key capabilities. Illustrations, implications, further challenges and opportunities are outlined.

Optical processing for future computer networks

Science.gov (United States)

Husain, A.; Haugen, P. R.; Hutcheson, L. D.; Warrior, J.; Murray, N.; Beatty, M.

1986-01-01

In the development of future data management systems, such as the NASA Space Station, a major problem represents the design and implementation of a high performance communication network which is self-correcting and repairing, flexible, and evolvable. To obtain the goal of designing such a network, it will be essential to incorporate distributed adaptive network control techniques. The present paper provides an outline of the functional and communication network requirements for the Space Station data management system. Attention is given to the mathematical representation of the operations being carried out to provide the required functionality at each layer of communication protocol on the model. The possible implementation of specific communication functions in optics is also considered.

Passion Trumps Pay: A Study of the Future Skills Requirements of Information Professionals in Galleries, Libraries, Archives and Museums in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Katherine; Partridge, Helen; Hughes, Hilary; Oliver, Gillian

2016-01-01

Introduction: This paper explores the current and future skills and knowledge requirements of contemporary information professionals in a converged gallery, library, archive and museum sector (also referred to as the GLAM sector) in Australia. This research forms part of a larger study that investigated the education needs of information…

A forecast of energy requirements in South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotze, D.J.

1975-01-01

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the adequacy of South Africa's energy resources relative to projected demands. The forecasting procedure embraces the construction of suitable energy balances and the development of econometric demand models. An energy balance is employed which integrates supply and demand data on all forms of energy for a particular year. The demand side of the balance is divided into both final demand and demand by the conversion sector. Useful energy consumption in each sector is estimated by applying utilisation efficiency co-efficients to the physics energy content of each energy form. Total final demand is determined by developing sub-models for each sector of final demand including households, industry, mining and transport. In these sub-models, economic series representing the type of activity in the particular sub-sector, are used as explanatory variables. Further relationships, quantifying the contributions of each form of energy to the sectorial totals, are constructed. Having established the future value of final useful energy demand, total future production and final consumption is obtained. The forecast of primary energy requirements is therefore made via a reversed calculation from the final energy demand through all conversion processes to the primary energy stage. Once the future distribution of energy by source, form and end use sector is known it is possible to plan the optimum allocation of energy resources in the country. It is also possible to evaluate the life of indigenous energy resources, their adequacy, and import requirements

A Hybrid Parallel Execution Model for Logic Based Requirement Specifications (Invited Paper

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey J. P. Tsai

1999-05-01

Full Text Available It is well known that undiscovered errors in a requirements specification is extremely expensive to be fixed when discovered in the software maintenance phase. Errors in the requirement phase can be reduced through the validation and verification of the requirements specification. Many logic-based requirements specification languages have been developed to achieve these goals. However, the execution and reasoning of a logic-based requirements specification can be very slow. An effective way to improve their performance is to execute and reason the logic-based requirements specification in parallel. In this paper, we present a hybrid model to facilitate the parallel execution of a logic-based requirements specification language. A logic-based specification is first applied by a data dependency analysis technique which can find all the mode combinations that exist within a specification clause. This mode information is used to support a novel hybrid parallel execution model, which combines both top-down and bottom-up evaluation strategies. This new execution model can find the failure in the deepest node of the search tree at the early stage of the evaluation, thus this new execution model can reduce the total number of nodes searched in the tree, the total processes needed to be generated, and the total communication channels needed in the search process. A simulator has been implemented to analyze the execution behavior of the new model. Experiments show significant improvement based on several criteria.

Model of future officers' availability to the management physical training

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olkhovy O.M.

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A purpose of work is creation of model of readiness of graduating student to implementation of official questions of guidance, organization and leadthrough of physical preparation in the process of military-professional activity. An analysis is conducted more than 40 sources and questionnaire questioning of a 21 expert. For introduction of model to the system of physical preparation of students the list of its basic constituents is certain: theoretical methodical readiness; functionally-physical readiness; organizationally-administrative readiness. It is certain that readiness of future officers to military-professional activity foresees determination of level of forming of motive capabilities, development of general physical qualities.

The Research of the Personality Qualities of Future Educational Psychologists

Science.gov (United States)

Dolgova, V. I.; Salamatov, A. A.; Potapova, M. V.; Yakovleva, N. O.

2016-01-01

In this article, the authors substantiate the existence of the personality qualities of future educational psychologists (PQFEP) that are, in fact, a sum of knowledge, skills, abilities, socially required qualities of personality allowing the psychologist to solve problems in all the fields of professional activities. A model of PQFEP predicts the…

Key requirements for future control room functionality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinelli, Mattia

2016-01-01

) and the observability needs highlighted within WP5 led to the definition of the requirements with a Web of Cell (WoC) point of view. The main European Distribution System Operators (DSOs) provided a valuable contribution in the definition of the evolvDSO Use Cases. Their analysis lead to the definition of further...

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Kros, J.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Britz, W.; Reinds, G.J.; Ewert, F.; Vries, de W.

2015-01-01

In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable

Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrius Rima

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritterbusch, S.E.

2000-01-01

The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ritterbusch, S.E.

2000-08-01

The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

2009-01-01

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

Formal Requirements Modeling for Reactive Systems with Coloured Petri Nets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tjell, Simon

This dissertation presents the contributions of seven publications all concerned with the application of Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) to requirements modeling for reactive systems. The publications are introduced along with relevant background material and related work, and their contributions...... to take into concern that the behavior of human actors is less likely to be predictable than the behavior of e.g. mechanical components.   In the second approach, the CPN model is parameterized and utilizes a generic and reusable CPN module operating as an SD interpreter. In addition to distinguishing...... and events. A tool is presented that allows automated validation of the structure of CPN models with respect to the guidelines. Next, three publications on integrating Jackson's Problem Frames with CPN requirements models are presented: The first publication introduces a method for systematically structuring...

Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lapola, David M. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Priess, Joerg A. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); Bondeau, Alberte [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

2009-08-15

The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410 000 to 95 000 km{sup 2} if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212 000 km{sup 2}). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18 000-89 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 29 000 km{sup 2}), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. In Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 33 000 km{sup 2}) and in India from 7000 to 161 000 km{sup 2} (mean 17 000 km{sup 2}). Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (author)

SMOS and SMAP: from Lessons Learned to Future Mission Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Y. H.; Wigneron, J. P.; Cabot, F.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Anterrieu, E.; Rouge, B.; Rodriguez Fernandez, N.; Bindlish, R.; Khazaal, A.; Al-Bitar, A.; Mialon, A.; Lesthievent, G.

2017-12-01

, vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth of information and some interesting perspectives will be presented. More important it is now possible to draw conclusions from the lessons learnt and, with the help of the user's community, define the requirements for future missions. And, finally, from these requirement to propose mission scenarii.

Architecture for Cognitive Networking within NASAs Future Space Communications Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Gilbert J., III; Eddy, Wesley M.; Johnson, Sandra K.; Barnes, James; Brooks, David

2016-01-01

Future space mission concepts and designs pose many networking challenges for command, telemetry, and science data applications with diverse end-to-end data delivery needs. For future end-to-end architecture designs, a key challenge is meeting expected application quality of service requirements for multiple simultaneous mission data flows with options to use diverse onboard local data buses, commercial ground networks, and multiple satellite relay constellations in LEO, MEO, GEO, or even deep space relay links. Effectively utilizing a complex network topology requires orchestration and direction that spans the many discrete, individually addressable computer systems, which cause them to act in concert to achieve the overall network goals. The system must be intelligent enough to not only function under nominal conditions, but also adapt to unexpected situations, and reorganize or adapt to perform roles not originally intended for the system or explicitly programmed. This paper describes architecture features of cognitive networking within the future NASA space communications infrastructure, and interacting with the legacy systems and infrastructure in the meantime. The paper begins by discussing the need for increased automation, including inter-system collaboration. This discussion motivates the features of an architecture including cognitive networking for future missions and relays, interoperating with both existing endpoint-based networking models and emerging information-centric models. From this basis, we discuss progress on a proof-of-concept implementation of this architecture as a cognitive networking on-orbit application on the SCaN Testbed attached to the International Space Station.

Safety Culture: A Requirement for New Business Models — Lessons Learned from Other High Risk Industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kecklund, L.

2016-01-01

-cost subcontractors can turn out to be much more expensive due to interface proliferation. Other negative effects are social dumping by external contractors and loss of competence if procurement requirements are not taking quality and safety issues into account. Based on MTO Safety’s extensive experience in the nuclear domain and work on safety management and safety culture in the aviation, railway and maritime domain, the paper will present lessons learned which are applicable to the nuclear industry for facing the major challenges ahead. Assuring safety is a fundamental requirement for obtaining a licence to operate a business in nuclear power, aviation and railways, thus safety culture is an essential requirement for a successful business. Therefore safety culture must be part of any new business model in high risk industries. In the future safety culture and leadership commitment and skills in creating safety culture will be even more important. The paper will discuss how companies and public utilities are to achieve this and how the regulators are to assess this where learning across industries is a key success factor. (author)

Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors based on projections in the Russian Federation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonovsky, G.M.; Kodochigov, N.G.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Novikov, V.V.

2001-01-01

Experimental Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering (OKBM) specializes in the development of small and medium power reactors having different purposes. They include reactor plants for NPHPP, nuclear district heating power plants and propulsion plants. Small and medium power plants have simpler processes of electricity and heat production, less systems, simpler control algorithms and considerably enhanced inherent safety properties. These plants are mainly equipped with passive safety systems. These properties are especially characteristic for reactor plants of nuclear district heating power plants and HTG reactor plants. The designs of small and medium power plants actually provide a high degree of control automation which considerably reduces workload on the personnel in both normal and abnormal operation conditions. All this allows the reduction in personnel for small and medium power reactors if compared to high capacity reactor plants. But due to objective reasons the specific number of personnel (man/MW) for average and especially small capacity reactors considerably exceeds the value for high capacity reactor plants. At the same time one can propose a set of organization - technical measures allowing the increase in this value in future. Safety requirements imposed for small and average capacity reactors are the same or more strict than those for high capacity reactors. That's why the requirements to the training of personnel for such reactor plants are not allowed to be lowered if compared to the requirements imposed to the personnel of high capacity reactors. (author)

Modelling of future hydrogeological conditions at SFR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmen, L.G.; Stigsson, M.

2001-03-01

The purpose is to estimate the future groundwater movements at the SFR repository and to produce input to the quantitative safety assessment of the SFR. The future flow pattern of the groundwater is of interest, since components of the waste emplaced in a closed and abandoned repository will dissolve in the groundwater and be transported by the groundwater to the ground surface. The study is based on a system analysis approach. Three-dimensional models were devised of the studied domain. The models include the repository tunnels and the surrounding rock mass with fracture zones. The formal models used for simulation of the groundwater flow are three-dimensional mathematical descriptions of the studied hydraulic system. The studied domain is represented on four scales - regional, local, semi local and detailed - forming four models with different resolutions: regional, local, semi local and detailed models. The local and detailed models include a detailed description of the tunnel system at SFR and of surrounding rock mass and fracture zones. In addition, the detailed model includes description of the different structures that take place inside the deposition tunnels. At the area studied, the shoreline will retreat due to the shore level displacement; this process is included in the models. The studied period starts at 2000 AD and continues until a steady state like situation is reached for the surroundings of the SFR at ca 6000 AD. The models predict that as long as the sea covers the ground above the SFR, the regional groundwater flow as well as the flow in the deposition tunnels are small. However, due to the shore level displacement the shoreline (the sea) will retreat. Because of the retreating shoreline, the general direction of the groundwater flow at SFR will change, from vertical upward to a more horizontal flow; the size of the groundwater flow will be increased as well. The present layout of the SFR includes five deposition tunnels: SILO, BMA, BLA, BTF1

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra eStavrakis

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti E; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

2017-03-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - threatened by climatic changes and over-abstraction of water for irrigated crop farming. Therefore, implementation of strict water level management policies is required. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to predict the future water levels of Lake Beyşehir in response to potential future changes in climate and land use. Water level estimation was performed by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Regression model (ε-SVR). The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation based on the climate change models led to an enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. On the other hand, the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment appeared to be comparatively insignificant. According to the ε-SVR model results, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction for all scenarios. Moreover, the MPI-ESM-MR General Circulation Model outputs produced the most dramatic results by predicting that Lake Beyşehir may dry out by the 2040s with the current outflow regime. The results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and losing their ecosystem values in the near future if the current intensity of water abstraction is not reduced. In addition, the results also demonstrate that outflow management and sustainable use of water sources are vital to sustain lake ecosystems in water

Deposition and interception of radionuclides. Current knowledge and future requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-12-01

Following an accidental or routine release of radionuclides into the environment, a good knowledge of deposition processes is necessary in order to accurately predict the radiation dose to members of the public. In order to understand the environmental impact of released radionuclides and their transfer through the environment, including the food chain to man, there have been numerous studies on deposition of radionuclides to a range of surfaces such as bare soil, crops, forests, water bodies and urban surfaces. The RADREM committee provides a forum for liaison on UK research and monitoring in the areas of radioactive substances and radioactive waste management. RADREM has set up four sub-committees to cover issues related to radioactivity in the atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments as well as those related radioactive waste management. One of the sub-committee tasks is to organise seminars and workshops on specific topics of interest. The first of these was the workshop on 'Deposition and Interception of Radionuclides: Current knowledge and future requirements' organised last year by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), acting as secretariat for the Terrestrial Environment Sub-Committee (TESC) of RADREM. The intent of this workshop was to provide an opportunity to exchange information on deposition-related aspects between representatives from various interested parties including government, regulatory bodies, industry and research organisations. Through presentations and discussions, this workshop addressed current developments in the areas of deposition and interception of radionuclides by various surfaces and served to identify areas which need further research. Papers were presented on various aspects of deposition and interception of radionuclides including deposition into grass, fruits and other crops as well as deposition into urban areas and forests

Security and Privacy in Video Surveillance: Requirements and Challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahmood Rajpoot, Qasim; Jensen, Christian D.

2014-01-01

observed by the system. Several techniques to protect the privacy of individuals have therefore been proposed, but very little research work has focused on the specific security requirements of video surveillance data (in transit or in storage) and on authorizing access to this data. In this paper, we...... present a general model of video surveillance systems that will help identify the major security and privacy requirements for a video surveillance system and we use this model to identify practical challenges in ensuring the security of video surveillance data in all stages (in transit and at rest). Our...... study shows a gap between the identified security requirements and the proposed security solutions where future research efforts may focus in this domain....

Meeting Quay 2k30's requirements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnants, G.H.; Toorn, A. van der; Schuylenburg, M.; Heijnen, H.P.J.; Gijt, J.G. de; Molenaar, W.F.; Ligteringen, H.; Krom, A.H.M.

2005-01-01

The requirements that a quay design should meet in order to yield a viable port infrastructure, vary widely from flexibility due to future customers requirements to durability due to owners requirements. In a Port of Rotterdam backed project, current and future requirements have been aggregated by

The present and future of the most favoured inflationary models after Planck 2015

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Escudero, Miguel; Ramírez, Héctor; Boubekeur, Lotfi; Mena, Olga [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de Valencia, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 (Spain); Giusarma, Elena, E-mail: miguel.escudero@ific.uv.es, E-mail: hector.ramirez@ific.uv.es, E-mail: lboubekeur@usfq.edu.ec, E-mail: elena.giusarma@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: olga.mena@ific.uv.es [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy)

2016-02-01

The value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r in the region allowed by the latest Planck 2015 measurements can be associated to a large variety of inflationary models. We discuss here the potential of future Cosmic Microwave Background cosmological observations in disentangling among the possible theoretical scenarios allowed by our analyses of current Planck temperature and polarization data. Rather than focusing only on r, we focus as well on the running of the primordial power spectrum, α{sub s} and the running thereof, β{sub s}. If future cosmological measurements, as those from the COrE mission, confirm the current best-fit value for β{sub s} ∼> 10{sup −2} as the preferred one, it will be possible to rule-out the most favoured inflationary models.

Review of the ASDEX upgrade data acquisition environment - present operation and future requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behler, K.; Blank, H.; Buhler, A.; Drube, R.; Friedrich, H.; Foerster, K.; Hallatschek, K.; Heimann, P.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Heimann, R.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Merkel, R.; Pacco-Duechs, M.-G.; Raupp, G.; Reuter, H.; Schneider-Maxon, U.; Tisma, R.; Zilker, M.

1999-01-01

The data acquisition environment of the ASDEX upgrade fusion experiment was designed in the late 1980s to handle a predicted quantity of 8 Mbytes fo data per discharge. After 7 years of operation a review of the whole data acquisition and analysis environment shows what remains of the original design ideas. Comparing the original 15 diagnostics with the present set of 250 diagnostic datasets generated per shot shows how the system has grown. Although now a vast accumulation of functional parts, the system still works in a stable manner and is maintainable. The underlying concepts affirming these qualities are modularity and compatibility. Modularity ensures that most parts of the system can be modified without affecting others. Standards for data structures and interfaces between components and methods are the prerequisites which make modularity work. The experience of the last few years shows that, besides the standards achieved, new, mainly real-time, features are needed: real-time event recognition allowing reaction to complex changing conditions; real-time wavelet analysis allowing adapted sampling rates; real-time data exchange between diagnostics and control; real-time networks allowing flexible computer coupling to permit interplay between different components; object-oriented programming concepts and databases are required for readily adaptable software modules. A final assessment of our present data processing situation and future requirements shows that modern information technology methods have to be applied more intensively to provide the most flexible means to improve the interaction of all components on a large fusion device. (orig.)

Some thoughts on the future of probabilistic structural design of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stancampiano, P.A.

1978-01-01

This paper presents some views on the future role of probabilistic methods in the structural design of nuclear components. The existing deterministic design approach is discussed and compared to the probabilistic approach. Some of the objections to both deterministic and probabilistic design are listed. Extensive research and development activities are required to mature the probabilistic approach suficiently to make it cost-effective and competitive with current deterministic design practices. The required research activities deal with probabilistic methods development, more realistic casual failure mode models development, and statistical data models development. A quasi-probabilistic structural design approach is recommended which accounts for the random error in the design models. (Auth.)

Capabilities and requirements for modelling radionuclide transport in the geosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paige, R.W.; Piper, D.

1989-02-01

This report gives an overview of geosphere flow and transport models suitable for use by the Department of the Environment in the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal sites. An outline methodology for geosphere modelling is proposed, consisting of a number of different types of model. A brief description of each of the component models is given, indicating the purpose of the model, the processes being modelled and the methodologies adopted. Areas requiring development are noted. (author)

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELING TOOLS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMATION OF GRAPHIC COMPETENCE OF THE FUTURE BACHELOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kateryna P. Osadcha

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to some aspects of the formation of future bachelor's graphic competence in computer sciences while teaching the fundamentals for working with three-dimensional modelling means. The analysis, classification and systematization of three-dimensional modelling means are given. The aim of research consists in investigating the set of instruments and classification of three-dimensional modelling means and correlation of skills, which are being formed, concerning inquired ones at the labour market in order to use them further in the process of forming graphic competence during training future bachelors in computer sciences. The peculiarities of the process of forming future bachelor's graphic competence in computer sciences by means of revealing, analyzing and systematizing three-dimensional modelling means and types of three-dimensional graphics at present stage of the development of informational technologies are traced a line round. The result of the research is a soft-ware choice in three-dimensional modelling for the process of training future bachelors in computer sciences.

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Testing sterile neutrino extensions of the Standard Model at future lepton colliders

Science.gov (United States)

Antusch, Stefan; Fischer, Oliver

2015-05-01

Extending the Standard Model (SM) with sterile ("right-handed") neutrinos is one of the best motivated ways to account for the observed neutrino masses. We discuss the expected sensitivity of future lepton collider experiments for probing such extensions. An interesting testable scenario is given by "symmetry protected seesaw models", which theoretically allow for sterile neutrino masses around the electroweak scale with up to order one mixings with the light (SM) neutrinos. In addition to indirect tests, e.g. via electroweak precision observables, sterile neutrinos with masses around the electroweak scale can also be probed by direct searches, e.g. via sterile neutrino decays at the Z pole, deviations from the SM cross section for four lepton final states at and beyond the WW threshold and via Higgs boson decays. We study the present bounds on sterile neutrino properties from LEP and LHC as well as the expected sensitivities of possible future lepton colliders such as ILC, CEPC and FCC-ee (TLEP).

Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

2008-07-15

Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

2008-01-01

Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

2015-01-01

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E

2015-07-02

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-12-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

Developing a Predictive for Unscheduled Maintenance Requirements on United States Air Force Installations

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kovich, Matthew D; Norton, J. D

2008-01-01

.... This paper develops one such method by using linear regression and time series analysis to develop a predictive model to forecast future year man-hour and funding requirements for unscheduled maintenance...

Research requirements for a unified approach to modelling chemical effects associated with radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, A.A.; Read, D.

1986-09-01

This report contains the results of a review of the current modelling, laboratory experiments and field experiments being conducted in the United Kingdom to aid understanding and improve prediction of the effects of chemistry on the disposal of radioactive wastes. The aim has been to summarise present work and derive a structure for future research effort that would support the use of probabilistic risk assessment (pra) methods for the disposal of radioactive wastes. The review was conducted by a combination of letter and personal visits, and preliminary results were reported to a plenary meeting of participants held in April, 1986. Following this meeting, copies of the report were circulated to participants at draft stage, so that the finalised report should be taken to provide as far as possible a consensus of opinion of research requirements. (author)

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-09-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

Views on the future of thermal hydraulic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishii, M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

1997-07-01

It is essential for the U.S. NRC to sustain the highest level of the thermal-hydraulics and reactor safety research expertise and continuously improve their accident analysis capability. Such expertise should span over four different areas which are strongly related to each other. These are: (1) Reactor Safety Code Development, (2) Two-phase Flow Modeling, (3) Instrumentation and Fundamental Experimental Research, and (4) Separate Effect and Integral Test. The NRC is already considering a new effort in the area of advanced thermal-hydraulics effort. Its success largely depends on the availability of a significantly improved two-phase flow formulation and constitutive relations supported by detailed experimental data. Therefore, it is recommended that the NRC start significant research efforts in the areas of two-phase flow modeling, instrumentation, basic and separate effect experiments which should be pursued systematically and with clearly defined objectives. It is desirable that some international program is developed in this area. This paper is concentrated on those items in the thermal-hydraulic area which eventually determine the quality of future accident analysis codes.

Views on the future of thermal hydraulic modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishii, M.

1997-01-01

It is essential for the U.S. NRC to sustain the highest level of the thermal-hydraulics and reactor safety research expertise and continuously improve their accident analysis capability. Such expertise should span over four different areas which are strongly related to each other. These are: (1) Reactor Safety Code Development, (2) Two-phase Flow Modeling, (3) Instrumentation and Fundamental Experimental Research, and (4) Separate Effect and Integral Test. The NRC is already considering a new effort in the area of advanced thermal-hydraulics effort. Its success largely depends on the availability of a significantly improved two-phase flow formulation and constitutive relations supported by detailed experimental data. Therefore, it is recommended that the NRC start significant research efforts in the areas of two-phase flow modeling, instrumentation, basic and separate effect experiments which should be pursued systematically and with clearly defined objectives. It is desirable that some international program is developed in this area. This paper is concentrated on those items in the thermal-hydraulic area which eventually determine the quality of future accident analysis codes

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Woodd

1999-07-01

Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

Science.gov (United States)

Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

2004-12-01

planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

Estimation of the Source Apportionment of Phosphorus and Its Responses to Future Climate Changes Using Multi-Model Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Sha

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The eutrophication issue in the Yangtze Basin was considered, and the phosphorus loads from its tributary, the Modaoxi River, were estimated. The phosphorus flux and source apportionment of the Modaoxi River watershed were modeled and quantified, and their changes with respect to future projected climate scenarios were simulated with multiple model applications. The Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa model based on Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF was employed as a tool to model the hydrochemical processes of the watershed and thereby estimate the monthly streamflow and the phosphorus flux as well as its source apportionment. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG was used to predict future daily weather data through the statistical downscaling of the general circulation model (GCM outputs based on projected climate scenarios. The synthetic time series of daily precipitation and temperatures generated by LARS-WG were further used as input data for ReNuMa to estimate the responses of the watershed hydrochemical processes to future changed climate conditions. The results showed that both models could be successfully applied and that the future wetter and warmer climate trends would have generally positive impacts on the watershed phosphorus yields, with greater contributions coming from runoff. These results could provide valuable support for local water environmental management.

Transport sensitivity studies for SITE-94: Time-dependent site-scale modelling of future glacial impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King-Clayton, L.; Smith, Paul

1996-10-01

The report details the methodology and preliminary results from the modelling of radionuclide transport from a hypothetical repository based at the Aespoe site in Sweden. The work complements and utilizes the results from regional-scale, variable density flow modelling by Provost, in which the groundwater flow field is time dependent, reflecting the impact of climate evolution over the next 130,000 years. The climate evolution include development of permafrost conditions and ice sheet advance and retreat. The results indicate that temporal changes in flow conditions owing to future climate changes have a significant effect on the transport of radionuclides from a repository. In all cases modelled with time-dependent boundary conditions, the greatest radionuclide fluxes occur towards the end of the main glacial periods, and correspond to periods of high groundwater discharge at the margin of the modelled ice sheets. Fluxes to the biosphere may, for limited periods (2000 years or less), be three times higher than those from the near field. The study provides a quantitative way of illustrating the possible effects of future glaciations on radionuclide transport from the repository. Such effects are likely to be significant in any potential siting area predicted to be affected by future periods of ice cover. 8 refs, 22 tabs, 119 figs

Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

Science.gov (United States)

Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

2012-04-01

Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

Science.gov (United States)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under

Modelling of capital requirements in the energy sector: capital market access. Final memorandum

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-04-01

Formal modelling techniques for analyzing the capital requirements of energy industries have been performed at DOE. A survey has been undertaken of a number of models which forecast energy-sector capital requirements or which detail the interactions of the energy sector and the economy. Models are identified which can be useful as prototypes for some portion of DOE's modelling needs. The models are examined to determine any useful data bases which could serve as inputs to an original DOE model. A selected group of models are examined which can comply with the stated capabilities. The data sources being used by these models are covered and a catalog of the relevant data bases is provided. The models covered are: capital markets and capital availability models (Fossil 1, Bankers Trust Co., DRI Macro Model); models of physical capital requirements (Bechtel Supply Planning Model, ICF Oil and Gas Model and Coal Model, Stanford Research Institute National Energy Model); macroeconomic forecasting models with input-output analysis capabilities (Wharton Annual Long-Term Forecasting Model, Brookhaven/University of Illinois Model, Hudson-Jorgenson/Brookhaven Model); utility models (MIT Regional Electricity Model-Baughman Joskow, Teknekron Electric Utility Simulation Model); and others (DRI Energy Model, DRI/Zimmerman Coal Model, and Oak Ridge Residential Energy Use Model).

Commonsense Psychology and the Functional Requirements of Cognitive Models

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gordon, Andrew S

2005-01-01

In this paper we argue that previous models of cognitive abilities (e.g. memory, analogy) have been constructed to satisfy functional requirements of implicit commonsense psychological theories held by researchers and nonresearchers alike...

Assessing Requirements Quality through Requirements Coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Rajan, Ajitha; Heimdahl, Mats; Woodham, Kurt

2008-01-01

In model-based development, the development effort is centered around a formal description of the proposed software system the model. This model is derived from some high-level requirements describing the expected behavior of the software. For validation and verification purposes, this model can then be subjected to various types of analysis, for example, completeness and consistency analysis [6], model checking [3], theorem proving [1], and test-case generation [4, 7]. This development paradigm is making rapid inroads in certain industries, e.g., automotive, avionics, space applications, and medical technology. This shift towards model-based development naturally leads to changes in the verification and validation (V&V) process. The model validation problem determining that the model accurately captures the customer's high-level requirements has received little attention and the sufficiency of the validation activities has been largely determined through ad-hoc methods. Since the model serves as the central artifact, its correctness with respect to the users needs is absolutely crucial. In our investigation, we attempt to answer the following two questions with respect to validation (1) Are the requirements sufficiently defined for the system? and (2) How well does the model implement the behaviors specified by the requirements? The second question can be addressed using formal verification. Nevertheless, the size and complexity of many industrial systems make formal verification infeasible even if we have a formal model and formalized requirements. Thus, presently, there is no objective way of answering these two questions. To this end, we propose an approach based on testing that, when given a set of formal requirements, explores the relationship between requirements-based structural test-adequacy coverage and model-based structural test-adequacy coverage. The proposed technique uses requirements coverage metrics defined in [9] on formal high-level software

A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

2014-01-01

Japanese electricity grid and a demand-side energy flow module based on a sectorial energy balance table. Both modules are divided and implemented as submodules represented as functionals of supply- and demand-side technology options. Using the developed model, three case studies were performed. Required data were collected through workshops involving researchers and engineers in the energy technology field in Japan. The functionals of technologies were defined on the basis of the availability of data and understanding of the current and future energy systems. Through case studies, it was demonstrated that the potential of energy technologies can be analysed by the developed model considering the mutual relationships of technologies. The contribution of technologies to, e.g., the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions should be carefully examined by quantitative analyses of interdependencies of the technology options

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-05-01

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2011-05-15

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

Science.gov (United States)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

Optimal Decision Making Framework of an Electric Vehicle Aggregator in Future and Pool markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rashidizadeh-Kermani, Homa; Najafi, Hamid Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad

2018-01-01

An electric vehicle (EV) aggregator, as an agent between power producers and EV owners, participates in the future and pool market to supply EVs’ requirement. Because of uncertain nature of pool prices and EVs’ behavior, this paper proposed a two stage scenario-based model to obtain optimal decis...... electricity markets, a sensitivity analysis over risk factor is performed. The numerical results demonstrate that with the application of the proposed model, the aggregator can supply EVs with lower purchases from markets....... decision making of an EV aggregator. To deal with mentioned uncertainties, the aggregator’s risk aversion is applied using conditional value at risk (CVaR) method in the proposed model. The proposed two stage risk-constrained decision making problem is applied to maximize EV aggregator’s expected profit...... in an uncertain environment. The aggregator can participate in the future and pool market to buy required energy of EVs and offer optimal charge/discharge prices to the EV owners. In this model, in order to assess the effects of EVs owners’ reaction to the aggregator’s offered prices on the purchases from...

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

World nuclear fuel cycle requirements 1991

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-10-10

The nuclear fuel cycle consists of mining and milling uranium ore, processing the uranium into a form suitable for generating electricity, burning'' the fuel in nuclear reactors, and managing the resulting spent nuclear fuel. This report presents projections of domestic and foreign requirements for natural uranium and enrichment services as well as projections of discharges of spent nuclear fuel. These fuel cycle requirements are based on the forecasts of future commercial nuclear power capacity and generation published in a recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. Also included in this report are projections of the amount of spent fuel discharged at the end of each fuel cycle for each nuclear generating unit in the United States. The International Nuclear Model is used for calculating the projected nuclear fuel cycle requirements. 14 figs., 38 tabs.

World nuclear fuel cycle requirements 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The nuclear fuel cycle consists of mining and milling uranium ore, processing the uranium into a form suitable for generating electricity, ''burning'' the fuel in nuclear reactors, and managing the resulting spent nuclear fuel. This report presents projections of domestic and foreign requirements for natural uranium and enrichment services as well as projections of discharges of spent nuclear fuel. These fuel cycle requirements are based on the forecasts of future commercial nuclear power capacity and generation published in a recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. Also included in this report are projections of the amount of spent fuel discharged at the end of each fuel cycle for each nuclear generating unit in the United States. The International Nuclear Model is used for calculating the projected nuclear fuel cycle requirements. 14 figs., 38 tabs

Modelling of Lunar Dust and Electrical Field for Future Lunar Surface Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yunlong

Modelling of the lunar dust and electrical field is important to future human and robotic activities on the surface of the moon. Apollo astronauts had witnessed the maintaining of micron- and millimeter sized moon dust up to meters level while walked on the surface of the moon. The characterizations of the moon dust would enhance not only the scientific understanding of the history of the moon but also the future technology development for the surface operations on the moon. It has been proposed that the maintaining and/or settlement of the small-sized dry dust are related to the size and weight of the dust particles, the level of the surface electrical fields on the moon, and the impaction and interaction between lunar regolith and the solar particles. The moon dust distributions and settlements obviously affected the safety of long term operations of future lunar facilities. For the modelling of the lunar dust and the electrical field, we analyzed the imaging of the legs of the moon lander, the cover and the footwear of the space suits, and the envelope of the lunar mobiles, and estimated the size and charges associated with the small moon dust particles, the gravity and charging effects to them along with the lunar surface environment. We also did numerical simulation of the surface electrical fields due to the impaction of the solar winds in several conditions. The results showed that the maintaining of meters height of the micron size of moon dust is well related to the electrical field and the solar angle variations, as expected. These results could be verified and validated through future on site and/or remote sensing measurements and observations of the moon dust and the surface electrical field.

Industrial requirements for interactive product configurators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Queva, Matthieu Stéphane Benoit; Probst, Christian W.; Vikkelsøe, Per

2009-01-01

The demand for highly customized products at low cost is driving the industry towards Mass Customization. Interactive product configurators play an essential role in this new trend, and must be able to support more and more complex features. The purpose of this paper is, firstly, to identify...... requirements for modern interactive configurators. Existing modeling and solving technologies for configuration are then reviewed and their limitations discussed. Finally, a proposition for a future product configuration system is described....

Present capabilities and future requirements for computer-aided geometric modeling in the design and manufacture of gas turbine

Science.gov (United States)

Caille, E.; Propen, M.; Hoffman, A.

1984-01-01

Gas turbine engine design requires the ability to rapidly develop complex structures which are subject to severe thermal and mechanical operating loads. As in all facets of the aerospace industry, engine designs are constantly driving towards increased performance, higher temperatures, higher speeds, and lower weight. The ability to address such requirements in a relatively short time frame has resulted in a major thrust towards integrated design/analysis/manufacturing systems. These computer driven graphics systems represent a unique challenge, with major payback opportunities if properly conceived, implemented, and applied.

Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mewaldt, R. A.

2013-06-01

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008-2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of 10Be and 14C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.

Computational brain models: Advances from system biology and future challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George E. Barreto

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Computational brain models focused on the interactions between neurons and astrocytes, modeled via metabolic reconstructions, are reviewed. The large source of experimental data provided by the -omics techniques and the advance/application of computational and data-management tools are being fundamental. For instance, in the understanding of the crosstalk between these cells, the key neuroprotective mechanisms mediated by astrocytes in specific metabolic scenarios (1 and the identification of biomarkers for neurodegenerative diseases (2,3. However, the modeling of these interactions demands a clear view of the metabolic and signaling pathways implicated, but most of them are controversial and are still under evaluation (4. Hence, to gain insight into the complexity of these interactions a current view of the main pathways implicated in the neuron-astrocyte communication processes have been made from recent experimental reports and reviews. Furthermore, target problems, limitations and main conclusions have been identified from metabolic models of the brain reported from 2010. Finally, key aspects to take into account into the development of a computational model of the brain and topics that could be approached from a systems biology perspective in future research are highlighted.

Advanced Ceramic Materials for Future Aerospace Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, Ajay

2015-01-01

With growing trend toward higher temperature capabilities, lightweight, and multifunctionality, significant advances in ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) will be required for future aerospace applications. The presentation will provide an overview of material requirements for future aerospace missions, and the role of ceramics and CMCs in meeting those requirements. Aerospace applications will include gas turbine engines, aircraft structure, hypersonic and access to space vehicles, space power and propulsion, and space communication.

Improved Traceability of Mission Concept to Requirements Using Model Based Systems Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Reil, Robin

2014-01-01

Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has recently been gaining significant support as a means to improve the traditional document-based systems engineering (DBSE) approach to engineering complex systems. In the spacecraft design domain, there are many perceived and propose benefits of an MBSE approach, but little analysis has been presented to determine the tangible benefits of such an approach (e.g. time and cost saved, increased product quality). This thesis presents direct examples of how developing a small satellite system model can improve traceability of the mission concept to its requirements. A comparison of the processes and approaches for MBSE and DBSE is made using the NASA Ames Research Center SporeSat CubeSat mission as a case study. A model of the SporeSat mission is built using the Systems Modeling Language standard and No Magics MagicDraw modeling tool. The model incorporates mission concept and requirement information from the missions original DBSE design efforts. Active dependency relationships are modeled to analyze the completeness and consistency of the requirements to the mission concept. Overall experience and methodology are presented for both the MBSE and original DBSE design efforts of SporeSat.

Future Skilled-Labour Markets in Germany: from Model-Based Calculations to Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Maier

2013-09-01

Full Text Available In this article, we focus on the potential development of the German labour market. For this purpose, wedeveloped a forecasting system that considers both supply and demand by occupational fi elds and qualifi cationsand that relies on consistent datasets, exogenous assumptions and systematic correlations. We presentthe key impacts for our forecasting system and highlight the eff ects of diff erent assumptions (scenariosexemplifi ed on our demand model. On the supply side, we point out how diff erent behaviours on the individuallevel infl uence the structure of development of the supply of skilled labour. Keeping the possibility of thosevarious potential futures in mind, we conclude with an outlook on potential skilled labour shortages inthe future.

Critical Business Requirements Model and Metrics for Intranet ROI

OpenAIRE

Luqi; Jacoby, Grant A.

2005-01-01

Journal of Electronic Commerce Research, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-30. This research provides the first theoretical model, the Intranet Efficiency and Effectiveness Model (IEEM), to measure intranet overall value contributions based on a corporation’s critical business requirements by applying a balanced baseline of metrics and conversion ratios linked to key business processes of knowledge workers, IT managers and business decision makers -- in effect, closing the gap of understanding...

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, agriculture market, air quality, and agriculture land management models to a DIN export model. Future scenarios considered policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy crop production and reducing atmospheric N-emissions, as well as the effect of population growth and the states’ infrastructure plans on sewage fluxes. Model-derived DIN export decreased by about 9% (from 279 to 254 kg N km−2 year−1) between 2002 and 2022 due to a 28% increase in area planted with corn, 24% improvement in crop N-recovery efficiency (NRE, to 0.52), 22% reduction in atmospheric N deposition, and 23% increase in sewage inputs. Changes in atmospheric and sewage inputs had a relatively small effect on DIN export and the effect of bioenergy crop production depended on nutrient management practices. Without improved NRE, increased production of corn would have increased DIN export by about 14% (to 289 kg N km−2 year−1) between 2002 and 2022. Model results suggest that meeting future crop demand while reducing the areal extent of hypoxia could require aggressive actions, such improving basin-level crop NRE to 0.62 or upgrading N-removal capabilities in waste water treatment plants beyond current plans. Tile-dra

17 CFR 41.2 - Required records.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Required records. 41.2 Section 41.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS General Provisions § 41.2 Required records. A designated contract market or registered derivatives...

MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

OpenAIRE

Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

2014-01-01

State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

A 2nd generation static model of greenhouse energy requirements (horticern) : a comparison with dynamic models

CERN Document Server

Jolliet, O; Munday, G L

1989-01-01

Optimisation of a greenhouse and its components requires a suitable model permitting precise determination of its energy requirements. Existing static models are simple but lack precision; dynamic models though more precise, are unsuitable for use over long periods and difficult to handle in practice. A theoretical study and measurements from the CERN trial greenhouse have allowed the development of new static model named "HORTICERN", precise and easy to use for predicting energy consumption and which takes into account effects of solar energy, wind and radiative loss to the sky. This paper compares the HORTICERN model with the dynamic models of Bot, Takakura, Van Bavel and Gembloux, and demonstrates that its precision is comparable; differences on average being less than 5%, it is independent of type of greenhouse (e.g. single or double glazing, Hortiplus, etc.) and climate. The HORTICERN method has been developed for PC use and is proving to be a powerful tool for greenhouse optimisation by research work...

The ELOCA fuel modelling code: past, present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, A.F.

2005-01-01

ELOCA is the Industry Standard Toolset (IST) computer code for modelling CANDU fuel under the transient coolant conditions typical of an accident scenario. Since its original inception in the early 1970's, the code has undergone continual development and improvement. The code now embodies much of the knowledge and experience of fuel behaviour gained by the Canadian nuclear industry over this period. ELOCA has proven to be a valuable tool for the safety analyst, and continues to be used extensively to support the licensing cases of CANDU reactors. This paper provides a brief and much simplified view of this development history, its current status, and plans for future development. (author)

Evaporative cooling in ATLAS - present and future

CERN Document Server

Viehhauser, G; The ATLAS collaboration

2010-01-01

The ATLAS Inner Detector cooling system is the largest evaporative cooling system used in High Energy Physics today. During the installation and commissioning of this system many lessons had to be learned, but the system is now operating reliably, although it does not achieve all original design specifications in all its circuits. We have re-evaluated the requirements for the cooling system, in particular for the evaporation temperature, over the full ATLAS operational lifetime. We find that the critical requirement is for thermal stability at the end of the operation in the high-radiation environment. To predict this we have developed a simple thermal model of the detector modules which yields analytical expressions to evaluate the results of changes in the operating conditions. After a comparison of the revised requirements and the actual present cooling system performance we will discuss various modifications to the system which will be required for future operation. In parallel we are developing a cooling...

Comparing different methods to model scenarios of future glacier change for the entire Swiss Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Linsbauer, A.; Paul, F.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

There is general agreement that observed climate change already has strong impacts on the cryosphere. The rapid shrinkage of glaciers during the past two decades as observed in many mountain ranges globally and in particular in the Alps, are impressive confirmations of a changed climate. With the expected future temperature increase glacier shrinkage will likely further accelerate and their role as an important water resource more and more diminish. To determine the future contribution of glaciers to run-off with hydrological models, the change in glacier area and/or volume must be considered. As these models operate at regional scales, simplified approaches to model the future development of all glaciers in a mountain range need to be applied. In this study we have compared different simplified approaches to model the area and volume evolution of all glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century according to given climate change scenarios. One approach is based on an upward shift of the ELA (by 150 m per degree temperature increase) and the assumption that the glacier extent will shrink until the smaller accumulation area covers again 60% of the total glacier area. A second approach is based on observed elevation changes between 1985 and 2000 as derived from DEM differencing for all glaciers in Switzerland. With a related elevation-dependent parameterization of glacier thickness change and a modelled glacier thickness distribution, the 15-year trends in observed thickness loss are extrapolated into the future with glacier area loss taking place when thickness becomes zero. The models show an overall glacier area reduction between 60-80% until 2100 with some ice remaining at the highest elevations. However, compared to the ongoing temperature increase and considering that several reinforcement feedbacks (albedo lowering, lake formation) are not accounted for, the real area loss might even be stronger. Uncertainties in the modelled glacier thickness have only a

Modelos de previsão de preços aplicados aos contratos futuros de boi gordo na BM&F Models of price forecasting applied to futures contracts of live cattle at the Brazilian Futures Market - BM&F

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aureliano Angel Bressan

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the applicability of time series models as a decision tool of buy and sell orders of live cattle futures contracts in the Brazilian Futures Market (BM&F, on dates close to expiration. The models considered are: ARIMA, Neural Networks and Dynamic Linear Models - DLM (this in the classic and bayesian approach. Weekly data, of the spot and futures markets, from 1996 to 1999, are used to calculate the forecasts. The main purpose is to calculate the returns, in buy/sell orders of live cattle futures between 1998 and 1999, in order to show the potentials or limitations of each model. The results show positive returns in almost all contracts analyzed, indicating the potential of the models as a decision tool in operating with futures contracts close to expiration date, with distinction on the performance of the Classic DLM and ARIMA models, although some differences in forecasting accuracy.

Univariate time series modeling and an application to future claims amount in SOCSO's invalidity pension scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Ahmad, Abu Bakar; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md.; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ismail, Isma Liana; Zulkifli, Faiz; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd

2012-09-01

The main objective of this study is to forecast the future claims amount of Invalidity Pension Scheme (IPS). All data were derived from SOCSO annual reports from year 1972 - 2010. These claims consist of all claims amount from 7 benefits offered by SOCSO such as Invalidity Pension, Invalidity Grant, Survivors Pension, Constant Attendance Allowance, Rehabilitation, Funeral and Education. Prediction of future claims of Invalidity Pension Scheme will be made using Univariate Forecasting Models to predict the future claims among workforce in Malaysia.

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

Science.gov (United States)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Solar energy futures in a Western European context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakicenovic, N; Messner, S

1983-02-01

The study considers three limiting scenarios that specify possible but not necessarily likely transitions to sustainable energy futures for Western Europe. Two scenarios consider exclusively solar futures--one based on centralized solar technologies (Hard scenario) and the other on decentralized, user-oriented technologies (Soft scenario). The third scenario, based on nuclear technologies, incorporates an intermediate degree of centralization in the energy system and serves as a comparison to the two exclusively solar scenarios. All three scenarios lead to sustainable energy futures before the year 2100, which is the time horizon of the study. While all three scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the Hard Solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. The scenarios are based on dynamic balances of energy demand and supply using detailed models to achieve consistency. The overall implications of each scenario are that fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and life-styles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable energy futures in Western Europe.

Solar energy futures in a Western European context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakicenovic, N; Messner, S

1983-02-01

The study considers three limiting scenarios that specify possible but not necessarily likely transitions to sustainable energy future for Western Europe. Two scenarios consider exclusively solar futures - one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized, user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). The third scenario, based on nuclear technologies, incorporates an intermediate degree of centralization in the energy system and serves as a comparison to the two exclusively solar scenarios. All three scenarios lead to sustainable energy futures before the year 2100, which is the time horizon of the study. While all three scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the Hard Solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. The scenarios are based on dynamic balances of energy demand and supply using detailed models to achieve consistency. The overall implications of each scenario are that fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and life-styles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable energy futures in Western Europe.

Modelling transport of water and solutes in future wetlands in Forsmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vikstroem, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran [DHI Water and Environment AB, Vaexjoe (Sweden)

2006-03-15

The Forsmark area consists of a number of natural wetlands. As a part of the evaluation of wetlands in the safety assessment for the area, possible future wetlands are being studied with respect to hydrology and transport mechanisms. A sensitivity analyses is performed to point out the governing parameters for the wetland hydraulics. The analysis of future wetlands is carried out using the hydrological model system Mike SHE. Mike SHE has been used to describe the near-surface hydrology for a regional model area in Forsmark. Three types of areas have been chosen. Today's lake Bolundfjaerden is because of its shallow depth likely to develop into a mire in the future. As it is situated in the downstream part of the regional model area, the runoff to the lake from upstream surface water system is significant. Lake Eckarfjaerden is situated in the upstream part of the catchment at a higher altitude and with a smaller inflow. Lake Puttan is situated above a planned layout of the repository and has a potential to receive discharges from a repository. It also lies in the downstream part of a large discharge area. The topography of the future mires is assumed to be flat, up to today's mean water level in each lake. To transport the surface runoff through the wetland, streams or water courses are assumed to form within the peat. The analyses of future wetlands in the Forsmark area show that the hydraulic conditions that exists today will somewhat alter as the peat is formed. For Bolundsfjaerden, where there during present conditions are weak discharge areas, a recharge area has formed during the summer. This can be explained by the amount of surface water that forms on the surface which increases the head elevation in the upper soil layers. The same holds for Eckarfjaerden, while Puttan after the peat has developed still is a discharge area due to its naturally strong discharge position close to the sea. Different vegetation and development stages for the peat have

Modelling transport of water and solutes in future wetlands in Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vikstroem, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

2006-03-01

The Forsmark area consists of a number of natural wetlands. As a part of the evaluation of wetlands in the safety assessment for the area, possible future wetlands are being studied with respect to hydrology and transport mechanisms. A sensitivity analyses is performed to point out the governing parameters for the wetland hydraulics. The analysis of future wetlands is carried out using the hydrological model system Mike SHE. Mike SHE has been used to describe the near-surface hydrology for a regional model area in Forsmark. Three types of areas have been chosen. Today's lake Bolundfjaerden is because of its shallow depth likely to develop into a mire in the future. As it is situated in the downstream part of the regional model area, the runoff to the lake from upstream surface water system is significant. Lake Eckarfjaerden is situated in the upstream part of the catchment at a higher altitude and with a smaller inflow. Lake Puttan is situated above a planned layout of the repository and has a potential to receive discharges from a repository. It also lies in the downstream part of a large discharge area. The topography of the future mires is assumed to be flat, up to today's mean water level in each lake. To transport the surface runoff through the wetland, streams or water courses are assumed to form within the peat. The analyses of future wetlands in the Forsmark area show that the hydraulic conditions that exists today will somewhat alter as the peat is formed. For Bolundsfjaerden, where there during present conditions are weak discharge areas, a recharge area has formed during the summer. This can be explained by the amount of surface water that forms on the surface which increases the head elevation in the upper soil layers. The same holds for Eckarfjaerden, while Puttan after the peat has developed still is a discharge area due to its naturally strong discharge position close to the sea. Different vegetation and development stages for the peat have been

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mearns, L.O.

1990-01-01

One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

Cognition and procedure representational requirements for predictive human performance models

Science.gov (United States)

Corker, K.

1992-01-01

Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods

Utility requirements for fusion power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeBellis, R.J.

1977-03-01

A four-man month study was undertaken to identify utility requirements of fusion power and define a role for the utilities in the fusion development process during the 1980s. This report, preliminary in nature, serves mainly as a planning document for future requirements analyses. A requirements organization was defined to consist of three major chronological phases: research and development, plant installation, and plant operation. Thirty-seven requirements were identified, covering all categories. In addition, training, environment, safety, licensing, and utility model were identified as five matrix-type requirements. As the requirement definition process continued during the study period, comments received from utility representatives revealed a consistency of key issues in the fusion development process. These issues form the basis for the eventual establishment of definitive roles for the utilities during the 1980s. The issues are not meant to reflect a negative view of fusion, but are items that must be solved before fusion can be introduced commercially as an electrical power source. As a result of this requirements study, preliminary candidate roles for the utilities in the fusion development process during the 1980s were identified as public education, commercialization studies, industry investment analyses, training plan implementation, alternate reactor concept development, ERDA concept design review, and requirements refinement

The implications of user requirements for the functionality and content of a future EGDI

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Mikael; Tulstrup, Jørgen

2014-05-01

The FP7 co-funded EGDI-Scope project is conducting analyses, which forms the basis for the development of an implementation plan for a future European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI) the aim of which will be to serve pan-European geological information from the European geological survey organisations. An important aspect of the project has been to consult stakeholders in order to deduce requirements, which is a fundamental prerequisite for making recommendations on the content and technical design of the system. It is indisputable that EGDI will have to build on international standards such as OGC and CGI and take into account legislative requirements from e.g. the INSPIRE directive. This will support the tasks of data providers and facilitate integration with other e-Infrastructures, but will not in itself lever the end user experiences. In order to make the future EGDI a successful online contributor of geological information, EGDI-Scope has therefore been looking very concretely into the needs and expectations of various user groups Most people have clear expectations anno 2014. They want to be able to search the web for information, and once found, they expect fast-performing, intuitive web applications with buttons to click, maps to navigate and reliable content to fulfil their immediate needs. In order for the EGDI to handle such requirements, a number of use cases for various thematic areas have been assessed. The use cases reveal (for example) that information about the geological composition of the ground is critical for the assessment of things like ecosystems or ground water quality. But where ecosystem assessment relies on the composition of the surface layers, groundwater geochemistry rely on the lithology of subsurface layers. For both scenarios, harmonised, pan-European geological maps are very important, but the harmonisation should not only relate to lithological classes, but also to the depth representation. The use cases also make clear

Education for older drivers in the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esko Keskinen

2014-07-01

Five presumptions have to be considered when addressing future education for older drivers: 1. Driving a car will continue to be one element of mobility in the future; 2. Older people want to be able to keep driving; 3. Safety will be an even more important factor in mobility in the future; 4. Ecological values will be more important in the future; and 5. Innovative technological applications will be more important in the future. Hierarchical models of driving are suitable in increasing understanding of older drivers' needs and abilities. The highest levels of the driving hierarchy in the Goals for Driver Education (GDE model are especially important for the safety of both young and elderly drivers. In these highest levels goals for life, skills for living, and social environment affect everyday decision making in general but also driving, which has an impact on driver safety. Giving up driving is very much a social decision and should be taken as such. However, the highest levels of the driving hierarchy are by nature inaccessible to teacher-centered instruction These levels require more coaching-like education methods where the learner takes the central role and the teacher helps the drivers understand their own abilities and limitations in traffic. Testing and selecting older drivers to enhance safety is not, according to research findings, working in a proper way. Older drivers do not so much need more information concerning traffic rules, etc., but rather better understanding of themselves, their health restrictions, their skills, and their abilities to ensure daily mobility. Their closest companions also need tools to help them in discussions of traffic safety issues affecting older drivers.

Model-Based Requirements Management in Gear Systems Design Based On Graph-Based Design Languages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin Holder

2017-10-01

Full Text Available For several decades, a wide-spread consensus concerning the enormous importance of an in-depth clarification of the specifications of a product has been observed. A weak clarification of specifications is repeatedly listed as a main cause for the failure of product development projects. Requirements, which can be defined as the purpose, goals, constraints, and criteria associated with a product development project, play a central role in the clarification of specifications. The collection of activities which ensure that requirements are identified, documented, maintained, communicated, and traced throughout the life cycle of a system, product, or service can be referred to as “requirements engineering”. These activities can be supported by a collection and combination of strategies, methods, and tools which are appropriate for the clarification of specifications. Numerous publications describe the strategy and the components of requirements management. Furthermore, recent research investigates its industrial application. Simultaneously, promising developments of graph-based design languages for a holistic digital representation of the product life cycle are presented. Current developments realize graph-based languages by the diagrams of the Unified Modelling Language (UML, and allow the automatic generation and evaluation of multiple product variants. The research presented in this paper seeks to present a method in order to combine the advantages of a conscious requirements management process and graph-based design languages. Consequently, the main objective of this paper is the investigation of a model-based integration of requirements in a product development process by means of graph-based design languages. The research method is based on an in-depth analysis of an exemplary industrial product development, a gear system for so-called “Electrical Multiple Units” (EMU. Important requirements were abstracted from a gear system

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

2012-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

The Nuremberg Code subverts human health and safety by requiring animal modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greek Ray

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The requirement that animals be used in research and testing in order to protect humans was formalized in the Nuremberg Code and subsequent national and international laws, codes, and declarations. Discussion We review the history of these requirements and contrast what was known via science about animal models then with what is known now. We further analyze the predictive value of animal models when used as test subjects for human response to drugs and disease. We explore the use of animals for models in toxicity testing as an example of the problem with using animal models. Summary We conclude that the requirements for animal testing found in the Nuremberg Code were based on scientifically outdated principles, compromised by people with a vested interest in animal experimentation, serve no useful function, increase the cost of drug development, and prevent otherwise safe and efficacious drugs and therapies from being implemented.

Future semiconductor material requirements and innovations as projected in the ITRS 2005 roadmap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arden, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

The international technology roadmap for semiconductors (ITRS) is a joint global effort of the semiconductor industry, the manufacturing equipment and material industry and the research community and consortia to define the future requirements and development of the semiconductor technology for the next 15 years. The ITRS started in 1992 as a US-national roadmap and became an international effort in 1998 with all major five industrial global regions (US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Europe) participating in its definition. The outlook in semiconductor manufacturing expects the continuous application of silicon technology for the next 15 years where complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) based devices will carry the development of the industry at least for one more decade. New device architectures and concepts based on silicon wafer material are being developed to support the development of the IC industry for another one or two decade. The major section of the ITRS contains technical information about frontend processing and interconnects, device structures and memory concepts, lithography and metrology as well as factory integration and environmental issues. This paper will review the material requirements and the expected material innovations for the industry as outlined in the ITRS Version 2005. Materials to be discussed are, for example, high permittivity gate dielectrics, insulating layers with low dielectric constants for interconnects, and capacitor dielectrics for dynamic memories. In addition, the paper will address, for example, new transistor gate materials, new solutions for interconnect systems beyond copper as well as new starting materials for wafer sizes beyond 300 mm. This publication was presented as an invited paper in the Symposium V of the 2006 spring meeting of the European Materials Research Society (E-MRS) in Nice, May 29th

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

CRITICAL THINKING TECHNOLOGY AS EFFECTIVE MEANS OF DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE MANAGERS’ LANGUAGE COMPETENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana V. Masharova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study is to consider the problem of the improvement of the students-managers linguistic competence.Methods. The analysis of the features of the linguistic competence formation of the future managers with the help of critical thinking technology was used at the initial stage. The model of the organization of the effective foreign language practicals is developed by means of pedagogical simulation. The testing of the control and the experimental groups with the future statistical data processing is used to evaluate the developed model effectiveness.Results. Methods and teaching techniques are used in compliance with each stage of cognitive activity. The necessary requirements while the organization and the conducting of the foreign language practicals when critical thinking skills learning are stated. The role of the professionally-oriented foreign texts in the higher educational institutions for the critical thinking development and the improvement of the future managers’ linguistic competence is identified.Scientific novelty. A model of foreign language practicals for students of economics using the stages of cognitive activity and methods and techniques of critical thinking is developed. The dependence between the requirements for foreign language practicals and information mastery level is defined.Practical significance. The complex of foreign language practicals for students of economics increasing the level of language training is developed on the basis of theoretical survey and experimental data.

The future of PACS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, Paul G.

2007-01-01

How will the future of picture archiving and communication systems (PACS) look, and how will this future affect the practice of radiology? We are currently experiencing disruptive innovations that will force an architectural redesign, making the majority of today’s commercial PACS obsolete as the field matures and expands to include imaging throughout the medical enterprise. The common architecture used for PACS cannot handle the massive amounts of data being generated by even current versions of computed tomography and magnetic resonance scanners. If a PACS cannot handle today’s technology, what will happen as the field expands to encompass pathology imaging, cone-beam reconstruction, and multispectral imaging? The ability of these new technologies to enhance research and clinical care will be impaired if PACS architectures are not prepared to support them. In attempting a structured approach to predictions about the future of PACS, we offer projections about the technologies underlying PACS as well as the evolution of standards development and the changing needs of a broad range of medical imaging. Simplified models of the history of the PACS industry are mined for the assumptions they provide about future innovations and trends. The physicist frequently participates in or directs technical assessments for medical equipment, and many physicists have extended these activities to include imaging informatics. It is hoped that by applying these speculative but experienced-based predictions, the interested medical physicist will be better able to take the lead in setting information technology strategies that will help facilities not only prepare for the future but continue to enjoy the benefits of technological innovations without disruptive, expensive, and unexpected changes in architecture. A good PACS strategy can help accelerate the time required for innovations to go from the drawing board to clinical implementation.

Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dasaraden Mauree

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

2001-01-01

Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

Engineering Runtime Requirements-Monitoring Systems Using MDA Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Skene, James; Emmerich, Wolfgang

The Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) technology toolset includes a language for describing the structure of meta-data, the MOF, and a language for describing consistency properties that data must exhibit, the OCL. Off-the-shelf tools can generate meta-data repositories and perform consistency checking over the data they contain. In this paper we describe how these tools can be used to implement runtime requirements monitoring of systems by modelling the required behaviour of the system, implementing a meta-data repository to collect system data, and consistency checking the repository to discover violations. We evaluate the approach by implementing a contract checker for the SLAng service-level agreement language, a language defined using a MOF meta-model, and integrating the checker into an Enterprise JavaBeans application. We discuss scalability issues resulting from immaturities in the applied technologies, leading to recommendations for their future development.

Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Tringali, Arthur

1997-01-01

This thesis focuses on developing a spreadsheet decision support model that can be used by combat engineer platoon and company commanders in determining the material requirements and estimated costs...

Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

KAUST Repository