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Sample records for models predicting trophic

  1. Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne

    2017-09-13

    We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).

  2. Trophic strategies of unicellular plankton

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chakraborty, Subhendu; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2017-01-01

    . To this end, we develop and calibrate a trait-based model for unicellular planktonic organisms characterized by four traits: cell size and investments in phototrophy, nutrient uptake, and phagotrophy. We use the model to predict how optimal trophic strategies depend on cell size under various environmental...... unicellulars are colimited by organic carbon and nutrients, and only large photoautotrophs and smaller mixotrophs are nutrient limited; (2) trophic strategy is bottom-up selected by the environment, while optimal size is top-down selected by predation. The focus on cell size and trophic strategies facilitates......Unicellular plankton employ trophic strategies ranging from pure photoautotrophs over mixotrophy to obligate heterotrophs (phagotrophs), with cell sizes from 10-8 to 1 μg C. A full understanding of how trophic strategy and cell size depend on resource environment and predation is lacking...

  3. Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

    1983-01-01

    Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

  4. Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...... that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...

  5. Network structure beyond food webs: mapping non-trophic and trophic interactions on Chilean rocky shores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Kéfi; Berlow, Eric L; Wieters, Evie A; Joppa, Lucas N; Wood, Spencer A; Brose, Ulrich; Navarrete, Sergio A

    2015-01-01

    How multiple types of non-trophic interactions map onto trophic networks in real communities remains largely unknown. We present the first effort, to our knowledge, describing a comprehensive ecological network that includes all known trophic and diverse non-trophic links among >100 coexisting species for the marine rocky intertidal community of the central Chilean coast. Our results suggest that non-trophic interactions exhibit highly nonrandom structures both alone and with respect to food web structure. The occurrence of different types of interactions, relative to all possible links, was well predicted by trophic structure and simple traits of the source and target species. In this community, competition for space and positive interactions related to habitat/refuge provisioning by sessile and/or basal species were by far the most abundant non-trophic interactions. If these patterns are orroborated in other ecosystems, they may suggest potentially important dynamic constraints on the combined architecture of trophic and non-trophic interactions. The nonrandom patterning of non-trophic interactions suggests a path forward for developing a more comprehensive ecological network theory to predict the functioning and resilience of ecological communities.

  6. Trophic modeling of Eastern Boundary Current Systems: a review and prospectus for solving the “Peruvian Puzzle”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc H. Taylor

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Boundary Current systems (EBCSs are among the most productive fishing areas in the world. High primary and secondary productivity supports a large biomass of small planktivorous pelagic fish, “small pelagics”, which are important drivers of production to the entire system whereby they can influence both higher and lower trophic levels. Environmental variability causes changes in plankton (food quality and quantity, which can affect population sizes, distribution and domi-nance among small pelagics. This variability combined with impacts from the fishery complicate the development of management strategies. Consequently, much recent work has been in the development of multispecies trophic models to better understand interdependencies and system dynamics. Despite similarities in extent, structure and primary productivity between EBCSs, the Peruvian system greatly differs from the others in the magnitude of fish catches, due mainly to the incredible production of the anchovy Engraulis ringens. This paper reviews literature concerning EBCSs dynamics and the state-of-the-art in the trophic modeling of EBCSs. The objective is to critically analyze the potential of this approach for system understanding and management and to adapt existing steady-state models of the Peruvian system for use in (future dynamic simulations. A guideline for the construction of trophodynamic models is presented taking into account the important trophic and environmental interactions. In consideration of the importance of small pelagics for the system dynamics, emphasis is placed on developing appropriate model compartmentalization and spatial delineation that facilitates dynamic simulations. Methods of model validation to historical changes are presented to support hypotheses concerning EBCS dynamics and as a critical step to the development of predictive models. Finally, the identification of direct model links to easily obtainable abiotic parameters is

  7. Sensitivity of secondary production and export flux to choice of trophic transfer formulation in marine ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R.; Hessen, Dag O.; Mitra, Aditee; Mayor, Daniel J.; Yool, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    The performance of four contemporary formulations describing trophic transfer, which have strongly contrasting assumptions as regards the way that consumer growth is calculated as a function of food C:N ratio and in the fate of non-limiting substrates, was compared in two settings: a simple steady-state ecosystem model and a 3D biogeochemical general circulation model. Considerable variation was seen in predictions for primary production, transfer to higher trophic levels and export to the ocean interior. The physiological basis of the various assumptions underpinning the chosen formulations is open to question. Assumptions include Liebig-style limitation of growth, strict homeostasis in zooplankton biomass, and whether excess C and N are released by voiding in faecal pellets or via respiration/excretion post-absorption by the gut. Deciding upon the most appropriate means of formulating trophic transfer is not straightforward because, despite advances in ecological stoichiometry, the physiological mechanisms underlying these phenomena remain incompletely understood. Nevertheless, worrying inconsistencies are evident in the way in which fundamental transfer processes are justified and parameterised in the current generation of marine ecosystem models, manifested in the resulting simulations of ocean biogeochemistry. Our work highlights the need for modellers to revisit and appraise the equations and parameter values used to describe trophic transfer in marine ecosystem models.

  8. Modelling emergent trophic strategies in plankton

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Aksnes, Dag L.; Berge, Terje

    2015-01-01

    Plankton are typically divided into phytoplankton and zooplankton in marine ecosystem models. Yet, most protists in the photic zone engage in some degree of phagotrophy, and it has been suggested that trophic strategy is really a continuum between pure phototrophs (phytoplankton) and pure...

  9. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Doi

    Full Text Available Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1 trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2 the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  10. The exploration of trophic structure modeling using mass balance Ecopath model of Tangerang coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi, N. N.; Kamal, M.; Wardiatno, Y.; Rozi

    2018-04-01

    Ecopath model approach was used to describe trophic interaction, energy flows and ecosystem condition of Tangerang coastal waters. This model consists of 42 ecological groups, of which 41 are living groups and one is a detritus group. Trophic levels of these groups vary between 1.0 (for primary producers and detritus) to 4.03 (for tetraodontidae). Groups with trophic levels 2≤TLfish, while detritus has a positive impact on the majority of demersal fish. Leiognathidae havea negative impact on phytoplankton, zooplankton and several other groups. System omnivory index for this ecosystem is 0.151. System primary production/respiration (P/R) ratio of Tangerang coastal waters is 1.505. This coastal ecosystem is an immatureecosystem because it hasdegraded. Pedigree index for this model is 0.57. This model describes ecosystem condition affected by overfishing and antropogenic activities. Therefore, through Ecopath model we provide some suggestions about the ecosystem-based fisheries management.

  11. A trophic model of fringing coral reefs in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan suggests overfishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pi-Jen; Shao, Kwang-Tsao; Jan, Rong-Quen; Fan, Tung-Yung; Wong, Saou-Lien; Hwang, Jiang-Shiou; Chen, Jen-Ping; Chen, Chung-Chi; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2009-09-01

    Several coral reefs of Nanwan Bay, Taiwan have recently undergone shifts to macroalgal or sea anemone dominance. Thus, a mass-balance trophic model was constructed to analyze the structure and functioning of the food web. The fringing reef model was comprised of 18 compartments, with the highest trophic level of 3.45 for piscivorous fish. Comparative analyses with other reef models demonstrated that Nanwan Bay was similar to reefs with high fishery catches. While coral biomass was not lower, fish biomass was lower than those of reefs with high catches. Consequently, the sums of consumption and respiratory flows and total system throughput were also decreased. The Nanwan Bay model potentially suggests an overfished status in which the mean trophic level of the catch, matter cycling, and trophic transfer efficiency are extremely reduced.

  12. Modeling lake trophic state: a random forest approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Productivity of lentic ecosystems has been well studied and it is widely accepted that as nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g. oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g. eutrophic). These broad trophic state classi...

  13. Modelling for an improved integrated multi-trophic aquaculture system for the production of highly valued marine species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luana Granada

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA is regarded as a suitable approach to limit aquaculture nutrients and organic matter outputs through biomitigation. Here, species from different trophic or nutritional levels are connected through water transfer. The co-cultured species are used as biofilters, and each level has its own independent commercial value, providing both economic and environmental sustainability. In order to better understand and optimize aquaculture production systems, dynamic modelling has been developed towards the use of models for analysis and simulation of aquacultures. Several models available determine the carrying capacity of farms and the environmental effects of bivalve and fish aquaculture. Also, in the last two decades, modelling strategies have been designed in order to predict the dispersion and deposition of organic fish farm waste, usually using the mean settling velocity of faeces and feed pellets. Cultured organisms growth, effects of light and temperature on algae growth, retention of suspended solids, biodegradation of nitrogen and wastewater treatment are examples of other modelled parameters in aquaculture. Most modelling equations have been developed for monocultures, despite the increasing importance of multi-species systems, such as polyculture and IMTA systems. The main reason for the development of multi-species models is to maximize the production and optimize species combinations in order to reduce the environmental impacts of aquaculture. Some multi-species system models are available, including from the polyculture of different species of bivalves with fish to more complex systems with four trophic levels. These can incorporate ecosystem models and use dynamic energy budgets for each trophic group. In the proposed IMTA system, the bioremediation potential of the marine seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla (nutrient removal performance and the Mediterranean filter-feeding polychaete Sabella

  14. Modeling of nitrogen transformation in an integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silfiana; Widowati; Putro, S. P.; Udjiani, T.

    2018-03-01

    The dynamic model of nitrogen transformation in IMTA (Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture) is purposed. IMTA is a polyculture with several biotas maintained in it to optimize waste recycling as a food source. The purpose of this paper is to predict nitrogen decrease and nitrogen transformation in IMTA consisting of ammonia (NH3), Nitrite (NO2) and Nitrate (NO3). Nitrogen transformation of several processes, nitrification, assimilation, and volatilization. Numerical simulations are performed by providing initial parameters and values based on a review of previous research. The numerical results show that the rate of change in nitrogen concentration in IMTA decrease and reaches stable at different times.

  15. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  16. Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Foraging patterns: model-data comparison . Simulated (colored circles) and observed (black circles) foraging locations for male sea lion individuals off...focusing on trophic interactions affecting habitat utilization and foraging patterns of California sea lions (CSL) in the California Current Large Marine...by considering patterns of covariability between environmental variables (e.g., temperature, primary production) and foraging patterns and success of

  17. Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

    2017-08-01

    Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

  18. Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinder, John E.; Rowan, David J.; Smith, Jim T.

    2016-01-01

    Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict "1"3"7Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. - Highlights: • We developed a model to predict concentration ratios (C_r) for saltwater fish. • The model requires only a single input variable to predict C_r. • That variable is a mean numeric trophic level available at (fishbase.org). • The K concentrations in seawater were not an important predictor variable. • The median-to observed ratio for 56 independently measured C_r was 0.83.

  19. Trophic shifts of a generalist consumer in response to resource pulses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Jen L Shaner

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Trophic shifts of generalist consumers can have broad food-web and biodiversity consequences through altered trophic flows and vertical diversity. Previous studies have used trophic shifts as indicators of food-web responses to perturbations, such as species invasion, and spatial or temporal subsidies. Resource pulses, as a form of temporal subsidies, have been found to be quite common among various ecosystems, affecting organisms at multiple trophic levels. Although diet switching of generalist consumers in response to resource pulses is well documented, few studies have examined if the switch involves trophic shifts, and if so, the directions and magnitudes of the shifts. In this study, we used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes with a Bayesian multi-source mixing model to estimate proportional contributions of three trophic groups (i.e. producer, consumer, and fungus-detritivore to the diets of the White-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus receiving an artificial seed pulse or a naturally-occurring cicadas pulse. Our results demonstrated that resource pulses can drive trophic shifts in the mice. Specifically, the producer contribution to the mouse diets was increased by 32% with the seed pulse at both sites examined. The consumer contribution to the mouse diets was also increased by 29% with the cicadas pulse in one of the two grids examined. However, the pattern was reversed in the second grid, with a 13% decrease in the consumer contribution with the cicadas pulse. These findings suggest that generalist consumers may play different functional roles in food webs under perturbations of resource pulses. This study provides one of the few highly quantitative descriptions on dietary and trophic shifts of a key consumer in forest food webs, which may help future studies to form specific predictions on changes in trophic interactions following resource pulses.

  20. Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium concentration ratios for freshwater fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinder, John E.; Rowan, David J.; Rasmussen, Joseph B.; Smith, Jim T.; Hinton, Thomas G.; Whicker, F.W.

    2014-01-01

    Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to produce and test a regression model to predict Cs concentration ratios for freshwater fish species. The accuracies of predicted concentration ratios, which were computed using 1) species trophic levels obtained from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the water for 207 fish from 44 species and 43 locations, were tested against independent observations of ratios for 57 fish from 17 species from 25 locations. Accuracy was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios within factors of 2 or 3. Conservatism, expressed as the lack of under prediction, was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios that were less than 2 or less than 3. The model's median observed to predicted ratio was 1.26, which was not significantly different from 1, and 50% of the ratios were between 0.73 and 1.85. The percentages of ratios within factors of 2 or 3 were 67 and 82%, respectively. The percentages of ratios that were <2 or <3 were 79 and 88%, respectively. An example for Perca fluviatilis demonstrated that increased prediction accuracy could be obtained when more detailed knowledge of diet was available to estimate trophic level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to predict Cs concentration ratios for freshwater fish species. • The model uses only two variables to predict a species CR for any location. • One variable is the K concentration in the freshwater. • The other is a species mean trophic level measure easily obtained from (fishbase.org). • The median observed to predicted ratio for 57 independent test cases was 1.26

  1. Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Jorge; Taylor, Marc H.; Blaskovic, Verónica; Espinoza, Pepe; Michael Ballón, R.; Díaz, Erich; Wosnitza-Mendo, Claudia; Argüelles, Juan; Purca, Sara; Ayón, Patricia; Quipuzcoa, Luis; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Goya, Elisa; Ochoa, Noemí; Wolff, Matthias

    2008-10-01

    The El Niño of 1997-98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995-96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997-98. The model area extends from 4°S-16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid ( Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a

  2. Trophic redundancy reduces vulnerability to extinction cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Dirk; Thébault, Elisa; Kehoe, Rachel; Frank van Veen, F J

    2018-03-06

    Current species extinction rates are at unprecedentedly high levels. While human activities can be the direct cause of some extinctions, it is becoming increasingly clear that species extinctions themselves can be the cause of further extinctions, since species affect each other through the network of ecological interactions among them. There is concern that the simplification of ecosystems, due to the loss of species and ecological interactions, increases their vulnerability to such secondary extinctions. It is predicted that more complex food webs will be less vulnerable to secondary extinctions due to greater trophic redundancy that can buffer against the effects of species loss. Here, we demonstrate in a field experiment with replicated plant-insect communities, that the probability of secondary extinctions is indeed smaller in food webs that include trophic redundancy. Harvesting one species of parasitoid wasp led to secondary extinctions of other, indirectly linked, species at the same trophic level. This effect was markedly stronger in simple communities than for the same species within a more complex food web. We show that this is due to functional redundancy in the more complex food webs and confirm this mechanism with a food web simulation model by highlighting the importance of the presence and strength of trophic links providing redundancy to those links that were lost. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity loss, leading to a reduction in redundant interactions, can increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary extinctions, which, when they occur, can then lead to further simplification and run-away extinction cascades. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  3. The interacting effects of temperature and food chain length on trophic abundance and ecosystem function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beveridge, Oliver S; Humphries, Stuart; Petchey, Owen L

    2010-05-01

    1. While much is known about the independent effects of trophic structure and temperature on density and ecosystem processes, less is known about the interaction(s) between the two. 2. We manipulated the temperature of laboratory-based bacteria-protist communities that contained communities with one, two, or three trophic levels, and recorded species' densities and bacterial decomposition. 3. Temperature, food chain length and their interaction produced significant responses in microbial density and bacterial decomposition. Prey and resource density expressed different patterns of temperature dependency during different phases of population dynamics. The addition of a predator altered the temperature-density relationship of prey, from a unimodal trend to a negative one. Bacterial decomposition was greatest in the presence of consumers at higher temperatures. 4. These results are qualitatively consistent with a recent model of direct and indirect temperature effects on resource-consumer population dynamics. Results highlight and reinforce the importance of indirect effects of temperature mediated through trophic interactions. Understanding and predicting the consequences of environmental change will require that indirect effects, trophic structure, and individual species' tolerances be incorporated into theory and models.

  4. Assessing Lake Trophic Status: A Proportional Odds Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem condition and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., recreation and aesthetics), and disservices (e.g., harmful algal blooms). Methods for classifying trophic state are based off the foundational work o...

  5. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckon, William N., E-mail: William_Beckon@fws.gov

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  6. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckon, William N.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  7. Trophic levels of fish species of commercial importance in the Colombian Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo B García

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Ecological studies on commercial important fish species are of great value to support resource management issues. This study calculated trophic levels of those Colombian Caribbean fish species whose diet has been locally described. Usable diet data of 119 species resulted in 164 trophic level estimates. An ordinary regression model relating trophic level and fish size was formulated. The regression slope was positive and significantly different from zero (p<0.05 suggesting a scaling of trophic level with fish size. Both the list of trophic levels and the regression model should be of help in the formulation of trophic indicators and models of neotropical ecosystems. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59 (3: 1195-1203. Epub 2011 September 01.

  8. Intersexual Trophic Niche Partitioning in an Ant-Eating spider (Araneae: Zodariidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pekár, Stanislav; Martisová, Martina; Bilde, T.

    2011-01-01

    lead to higher energy demands in females driven by fecundity selection, while males invest in mate searching. We tested predictions of the two hypotheses underlying intersexual trophic niche partitioning in a natural population of spiders. Zodarion jozefienae spiders specialize on Messor barbarus ants...... that are polymorphic in body size and hence comprise potential trophic niches for the spider, making this system well-suited to study intersexual trophic niche partitioning. Methodology/Principal Findings Comparative analysis of trophic morphology (the chelicerae) and body size of males, females and juveniles...... demonstrated highly female biased SSD (Sexual Size Dimorphism) in body size, body weight, and in the size of chelicerae, the latter arising from sex-specific growth patterns in trophic morphology. In the field, female spiders actively selected ant sub-castes that were larger than the average prey size...

  9. Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, Tyler O.; Hyrenbach, K. David; Hagemann, Molly E.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.

    2018-01-01

    Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level–based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher–trophic level to lower–trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems. PMID:29457134

  10. Divergent trophic levels in two cryptic sibling bat species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemers, Björn M; Greif, Stefan; Borissov, Ivailo; Voigt-Heucke, Silke L; Voigt, Christian C

    2011-05-01

    Changes in dietary preferences in animal species play a pivotal role in niche specialization. Here, we investigate how divergence of foraging behaviour affects the trophic position of animals and thereby their role for ecosystem processes. As a model, we used two closely related bat species, Myotis myotis and M. blythii oxygnathus, that are morphologically very similar and share the same roosts, but show clear behavioural divergence in habitat selection and foraging. Based on previous dietary studies on synanthropic populations in Central Europe, we hypothesised that M. myotis would mainly prey on predatory arthropods (i.e., secondary consumers) while M. blythii oxygnathus would eat herbivorous insects (i.e., primary consumers). We thus expected that the sibling bats would be at different trophic levels. We first conducted a validation experiment with captive bats in the laboratory and measured isotopic discrimination, i.e., the stepwise enrichment of heavy in relation to light isotopes between consumer and diet, in insectivorous bats for the first time. We then tested our trophic level hypothesis in the field at an ancient site of natural coexistence for the two species (Bulgaria, south-eastern Europe) using stable isotope analyses. As predicted, secondary consumer arthropods (carabid beetles; Coleoptera) were more enriched in (15)N than primary consumer arthropods (tettigoniids; Orthoptera), and accordingly wing tissue of M. myotis was more enriched in (15)N than tissue of M. blythii oxygnathus. According to a Bayesian mixing model, M. blythii oxygnathus indeed fed almost exclusively on primary consumers (98%), while M. myotis ate a mix of secondary (50%), but also, and to a considerable extent, primary consumers (50%). Our study highlights that morphologically almost identical, sympatric sibling species may forage at divergent trophic levels, and, thus may have different effects on ecosystem processes.

  11. Simulated tri-trophic networks reveal complex relationships between species diversity and interaction diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardikes, Nicholas A; Lumpkin, Will; Hurtado, Paul J; Dyer, Lee A

    2018-01-01

    Most of earth's biodiversity is comprised of interactions among species, yet it is unclear what causes variation in interaction diversity across space and time. We define interaction diversity as the richness and relative abundance of interactions linking species together at scales from localized, measurable webs to entire ecosystems. Large-scale patterns suggest that two basic components of interaction diversity differ substantially and predictably between different ecosystems: overall taxonomic diversity and host specificity of consumers. Understanding how these factors influence interaction diversity, and quantifying the causes and effects of variation in interaction diversity are important goals for community ecology. While previous studies have examined the effects of sampling bias and consumer specialization on determining patterns of ecological networks, these studies were restricted to two trophic levels and did not incorporate realistic variation in species diversity and consumer diet breadth. Here, we developed a food web model to generate tri-trophic ecological networks, and evaluated specific hypotheses about how the diversity of trophic interactions and species diversity are related under different scenarios of species richness, taxonomic abundance, and consumer diet breadth. We investigated the accumulation of species and interactions and found that interactions accumulate more quickly; thus, the accumulation of novel interactions may require less sampling effort than sampling species in order to get reliable estimates of either type of diversity. Mean consumer diet breadth influenced the correlation between species and interaction diversity significantly more than variation in both species richness and taxonomic abundance. However, this effect of diet breadth on interaction diversity is conditional on the number of observed interactions included in the models. The results presented here will help develop realistic predictions of the relationships

  12. Spider foraging strategy affects trophic cascades under natural and drought conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shengjie; Chen, Jin; Gan, Wenjin; Schaefer, Douglas; Gan, Jianmin; Yang, Xiaodong

    2015-07-23

    Spiders can cause trophic cascades affecting litter decomposition rates. However, it remains unclear how spiders with different foraging strategies influence faunal communities, or present cascading effects on decomposition. Furthermore, increased dry periods predicted in future climates will likely have important consequences for trophic interactions in detritus-based food webs. We investigated independent and interactive effects of spider predation and drought on litter decomposition in a tropical forest floor. We manipulated densities of dominant spiders with actively hunting or sit-and-wait foraging strategies in microcosms which mimicked the tropical-forest floor. We found a positive trophic cascade on litter decomposition was triggered by actively hunting spiders under ambient rainfall, but sit-and-wait spiders did not cause this. The drought treatment reversed the effect of actively hunting spiders on litter decomposition. Under drought conditions, we observed negative trophic cascade effects on litter decomposition in all three spider treatments. Thus, reduced rainfall can alter predator-induced indirect effects on lower trophic levels and ecosystem processes, and is an example of how such changes may alter trophic cascades in detritus-based webs of tropical forests.

  13. Trophic transfer of metal nanoparticles in freshwater ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tangaa, Stine Rosendal

    freshwater ecosystems range from a few ng/L in surface waters and up to mg/kg in sediments. Several studies have shown Ag ENPs to be toxic, bioaccumulative and harmful to aquatic biota within these concentration ranges. However, research on potential trophic transfer of Ag ENPs is limited. To investigate...... the aquatic ecosystems, Ag ENPs will undergo several transformation processes, ultimately leading to particles settling out of the water column. This will likely result in an increased concentration of ENPs in the sediment. In fact, predicted environmental concentrations of Ag ENPs in Danish and European...... freshwater food web. Future studies should concentrate on the internal distribution of Me-ENPs after uptake in both prey and predator, as this will increase the understanding of fate and effects of Me-ENPs on aquatic biota. Trophic transfer studies including more trophic levels, and higher pelagic organisms...

  14. Trophic interaction modifications: an empirical and theoretical framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, J Christopher D; Morris, Rebecca J; Bonsall, Michael B

    2017-10-01

    Consumer-resource interactions are often influenced by other species in the community. At present these 'trophic interaction modifications' are rarely included in ecological models despite demonstrations that they can drive system dynamics. Here, we advocate and extend an approach that has the potential to unite and represent this key group of non-trophic interactions by emphasising the change to trophic interactions induced by modifying species. We highlight the opportunities this approach brings in comparison to frameworks that coerce trophic interaction modifications into pairwise relationships. To establish common frames of reference and explore the value of the approach, we set out a range of metrics for the 'strength' of an interaction modification which incorporate increasing levels of contextual information about the system. Through demonstrations in three-species model systems, we establish that these metrics capture complimentary aspects of interaction modifications. We show how the approach can be used in a range of empirical contexts; we identify as specific gaps in current understanding experiments with multiple levels of modifier species and the distributions of modifications in networks. The trophic interaction modification approach we propose can motivate and unite empirical and theoretical studies of system dynamics, providing a route to confront ecological complexity. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Predator-prey dynamics driven by feedback between functionally diverse trophic levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Tirok

    Full Text Available Neglecting the naturally existing functional diversity of communities and the resulting potential to respond to altered conditions may strongly reduce the realism and predictive power of ecological models. We therefore propose and study a predator-prey model that describes mutual feedback via species shifts in both predator and prey, using a dynamic trait approach. Species compositions of the two trophic levels were described by mean functional traits--prey edibility and predator food-selectivity--and functional diversities by the variances. Altered edibility triggered shifts in food-selectivity so that consumers continuously respond to the present prey composition, and vice versa. This trait-mediated feedback mechanism resulted in a complex dynamic behavior with ongoing oscillations in the mean trait values, reflecting continuous reorganization of the trophic levels. The feedback was only possible if sufficient functional diversity was present in both trophic levels. Functional diversity was internally maintained on the prey level as no niche existed in our system, which was ideal under any composition of the predator level due to the trade-offs between edibility, growth and carrying capacity. The predators were only subject to one trade-off between food-selectivity and grazing ability and in the absence of immigration, one predator type became abundant, i.e., functional diversity declined to zero. In the lack of functional diversity the system showed the same dynamics as conventional models of predator-prey interactions ignoring the potential for shifts in species composition. This way, our study identified the crucial role of trade-offs and their shape in physiological and ecological traits for preserving diversity.

  16. Reef Fishes at All Trophic Levels Respond Positively to Effective Marine Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler, German A.; Edgar, Graham J.; Thomson, Russell J.; Kininmonth, Stuart; Campbell, Stuart J.; Dawson, Terence P.; Barrett, Neville S.; Bernard, Anthony T. F.; Galván, David E.; Willis, Trevor J.; Alexander, Timothy J.; Stuart-Smith, Rick D.

    2015-01-01

    Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) offer a unique opportunity to test the assumption that fishing pressure affects some trophic groups more than others. Removal of larger predators through fishing is often suggested to have positive flow-on effects for some lower trophic groups, in which case protection from fishing should result in suppression of lower trophic groups as predator populations recover. We tested this by assessing differences in the trophic structure of reef fish communities associated with 79 MPAs and open-access sites worldwide, using a standardised quantitative dataset on reef fish community structure. The biomass of all major trophic groups (higher carnivores, benthic carnivores, planktivores and herbivores) was significantly greater (by 40% - 200%) in effective no-take MPAs relative to fished open-access areas. This effect was most pronounced for individuals in large size classes, but with no size class of any trophic group showing signs of depressed biomass in MPAs, as predicted from higher predator abundance. Thus, greater biomass in effective MPAs implies that exploitation on shallow rocky and coral reefs negatively affects biomass of all fish trophic groups and size classes. These direct effects of fishing on trophic structure appear stronger than any top down effects on lower trophic levels that would be imposed by intact predator populations. We propose that exploitation affects fish assemblages at all trophic levels, and that local ecosystem function is generally modified by fishing. PMID:26461104

  17. Reef Fishes at All Trophic Levels Respond Positively to Effective Marine Protected Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    German A Soler

    Full Text Available Marine Protected Areas (MPAs offer a unique opportunity to test the assumption that fishing pressure affects some trophic groups more than others. Removal of larger predators through fishing is often suggested to have positive flow-on effects for some lower trophic groups, in which case protection from fishing should result in suppression of lower trophic groups as predator populations recover. We tested this by assessing differences in the trophic structure of reef fish communities associated with 79 MPAs and open-access sites worldwide, using a standardised quantitative dataset on reef fish community structure. The biomass of all major trophic groups (higher carnivores, benthic carnivores, planktivores and herbivores was significantly greater (by 40% - 200% in effective no-take MPAs relative to fished open-access areas. This effect was most pronounced for individuals in large size classes, but with no size class of any trophic group showing signs of depressed biomass in MPAs, as predicted from higher predator abundance. Thus, greater biomass in effective MPAs implies that exploitation on shallow rocky and coral reefs negatively affects biomass of all fish trophic groups and size classes. These direct effects of fishing on trophic structure appear stronger than any top down effects on lower trophic levels that would be imposed by intact predator populations. We propose that exploitation affects fish assemblages at all trophic levels, and that local ecosystem function is generally modified by fishing.

  18. Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

    2018-06-01

    We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help

  19. Trophic assimilation efficiency markedly increases at higher trophic levels in four-level host-parasitoid food chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Dirk; Moser, Andrea; Newton, Jason; van Veen, F J Frank

    2016-03-16

    Trophic assimilation efficiency (conversion of resource biomass into consumer biomass) is thought to be a limiting factor for food chain length in natural communities. In host-parasitoid systems, which account for the majority of terrestrial consumer interactions, a high trophic assimilation efficiency may be expected at higher trophic levels because of the close match of resource composition of host tissue and the consumer's resource requirements, which would allow for longer food chains. We measured efficiency of biomass transfer along an aphid-primary-secondary-tertiary parasitoid food chain and used stable isotope analysis to confirm trophic levels. We show high efficiency in biomass transfer along the food chain. From the third to the fourth trophic level, the proportion of host biomass transferred was 45%, 65% and 73%, respectively, for three secondary parasitoid species. For two parasitoid species that can act at the fourth and fifth trophic levels, we show markedly increased trophic assimilation efficiencies at the higher trophic level, which increased from 45 to 63% and 73 to 93%, respectively. In common with other food chains, δ(15)N increased with trophic level, with trophic discrimination factors (Δ(15)N) 1.34 and 1.49‰ from primary parasitoids to endoparasitic and ectoparasitic secondary parasitoids, respectively, and 0.78‰ from secondary to tertiary parasitoids. Owing to the extraordinarily high efficiency of hyperparasitoids, cryptic higher trophic levels may exist in host-parasitoid communities, which could alter our understanding of the dynamics and drivers of community structure of these important systems. © 2016 The Authors.

  20. Multiple attractors and boundary crises in a tri-trophic food chain.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.P.; Kooi, B.W.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2001-01-01

    The asymptotic behaviour of a model of a tri-trophic food chain in the chemostat is analysed in detail. The Monod growth model is used for all trophic levels, yielding a non-linear dynamical system of four ordinary differential equations. Mass conservation makes it possible to reduce the dimension

  1. Trait-mediated trophic interactions: is foraging theory keeping up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Railsback, Steven F; Harvey, Bret C

    2013-02-01

    Many ecologists believe that there is a lack of foraging theory that works in community contexts, for populations of unique individuals each making trade-offs between food and risk that are subject to feedbacks from behavior of others. Such theory is necessary to reproduce the trait-mediated trophic interactions now recognized as widespread and strong. Game theory can address feedbacks but does not provide foraging theory for unique individuals in variable environments. 'State- and prediction-based theory' (SPT) is a new approach that combines existing trade-off methods with routine updating: individuals regularly predict future food availability and risk from current conditions to optimize a fitness measure. SPT can reproduce a variety of realistic foraging behaviors and trait-mediated trophic interactions with feedbacks, even when the environment is unpredictable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem; Allen, Julian Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason T.; Tsiaras, Kostas P.; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle C.; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Machú , Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschö n, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris J M; Garç on, Vé ronique C.; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A.; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

    2014-01-01

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  3. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2014-05-07

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  4. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Allen, J Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

    2014-07-01

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  5. Intersexual trophic niche partitioning in an ant-eating spider (Araneae: Zodariidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stano Pekár

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Divergence in trophic niche between the sexes may function to reduce competition between the sexes ("intersexual niche partitioning hypothesis", or may be result from differential selection among the sexes on maximizing reproductive output ("sexual selection hypothesis". The latter may lead to higher energy demands in females driven by fecundity selection, while males invest in mate searching. We tested predictions of the two hypotheses underlying intersexual trophic niche partitioning in a natural population of spiders. Zodarion jozefienae spiders specialize on Messor barbarus ants that are polymorphic in body size and hence comprise potential trophic niches for the spider, making this system well-suited to study intersexual trophic niche partitioning.Comparative analysis of trophic morphology (the chelicerae and body size of males, females and juveniles demonstrated highly female biased SSD (Sexual Size Dimorphism in body size, body weight, and in the size of chelicerae, the latter arising from sex-specific growth patterns in trophic morphology. In the field, female spiders actively selected ant sub-castes that were larger than the average prey size, and larger than ants captured by juveniles and males. Female fecundity was highly positively correlated with female body mass, which reflects foraging success during the adult stage. Females in laboratory experiments preferred the large ant sub-castes and displayed higher capture efficiency. In contrast, males occupied a different trophic niche and showed reduced foraging effort and reduced prey capture and feeding efficiency compared with females and juveniles.Our data indicate that female-biased dimorphism in trophic morphology and body size correlate with sex-specific reproductive strategies. We propose that intersexual trophic niche partitioning is shaped primarily by fecundity selection in females, and results from sex-differences in the route to successful reproduction where females are

  6. Size-based predictions of food web patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Hartvig, Martin; Knudsen, Kim

    2014-01-01

    We employ size-based theoretical arguments to derive simple analytic predictions of ecological patterns and properties of natural communities: size-spectrum exponent, maximum trophic level, and susceptibility to invasive species. The predictions are brought about by assuming that an infinite number...... of species are continuously distributed on a size-trait axis. It is, however, an open question whether such predictions are valid for a food web with a finite number of species embedded in a network structure. We address this question by comparing the size-based predictions to results from dynamic food web...... simulations with varying species richness. To this end, we develop a new size- and trait-based food web model that can be simplified into an analytically solvable size-based model. We confirm existing solutions for the size distribution and derive novel predictions for maximum trophic level and invasion...

  7. Trophic transfer of pyrene metabolites between aquatic invertebrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrasco Navarro, V.; Leppänen, M.T.; Kukkonen, J.V.K.; Godoy Olmos, S.

    2013-01-01

    The trophic transfer of pyrene metabolites was studied using Gammarus setosus as a predator and the invertebrates Lumbriculus variegatus and Chironomus riparius as prey. The results obtained by liquid scintillation counting confirmed that the pyrene metabolites produced by the aquatic invertebrates L. variegatus and C. riparius were transferred to G. setosus through the diet. More detailed analyses by liquid chromatography discovered that two of the metabolites produced by C. riparius appeared in the chromatograms of G. setosus tissue extracts, proving their trophic transfer. These metabolites were not present in chromatograms of G. setosus exclusively exposed to pyrene. The present study supports the trophic transfer of PAH metabolites between benthic macroinvertebrates and common species of an arctic amphipod. As some PAH metabolites are more toxic than the parent compounds, the present study raises concerns about the consequences of their trophic transfer and the fate and effects of PAHs in natural environments. - Highlights: ► The trophic transfer of pyrene metabolites between invertebrates was evaluated. ► Biotransformation of pyrene by L. variegatus and C. riparius is different. ► Metabolites produced by L. variegatus and C. riparius are transferred to G. setosus. ► Specifically, two metabolites produced by C. riparius were transferred. - Some of the pyrene metabolites produced by the model invertebrates L. variegatus and C. riparius are transferred to G. setosus through the diet, proving their trophic transfer.

  8. Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calizza, Edoardo; Careddu, Giulio; Sporta Caputi, Simona; Rossi, Loreto; Costantini, Maria Letizia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea) and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential climate-driven changes

  9. Description of the East Brazil Large Marine Ecosystem using a trophic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kátia M.F. Freire

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the marine ecosystem off northeastern Brazil. A trophic model was constructed for the 1970s using Ecopath with Ecosim. The impact of most of the forty-one functional groups was modest, probably due to the highly reticulated diet matrix. However, seagrass and macroalgae exerted a strong positive impact on manatee and herbivorous reef fishes, respectively. A high negative impact of omnivorous reef fishes on spiny lobsters and of sharks on swordfish was observed. Spiny lobsters and swordfish had the largest biomass changes for the simulation period (1978-2000; tunas, other large pelagics and sharks showed intermediate rates of biomass decline; and a slight increase in biomass was observed for toothed cetaceans, large carnivorous reef fishes, and dolphinfish. Recycling was an important feature of this ecosystem with low phytoplankton-originated primary production. The mean transfer efficiency between trophic levels was 11.4%. The gross efficiency of the fisheries was very low (0.00002, probably due to the low exploitation rate of most of the resources in the 1970s. Basic local information was missing for many groups. When information gaps are filled, this model may serve more credibly for the exploration of fishing policies for this area within an ecosystem approach.

  10. Trophic niche of squids: Insights from isotopic data in marine systems worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Joan; Coll, Marta; Somes, Christoper J.; Olson, Robert J.

    2013-10-01

    Cephalopods are an important prey resource for fishes, seabirds, and marine mammals, and are also voracious predators on crustaceans, fishes, squid and zooplankton. Because of their high feeding rates and abundance, squids have the potential to exert control on the recruitment of commercially important fishes. In this review, we synthesize the available information for two intrinsic markers (δ15N and δ13C isotopic values) in squids for all oceans and several types of ecosystems to obtain a global view of the trophic niches of squids in marine ecosystems. In particular, we aimed to examine whether the trophic positions and trophic widths of squid species vary among oceans and ecosystem types. To correctly compare across systems, we adjusted squid δ15N values for the isotopic variability of phytoplankton at the base of the food web provided by an ocean circulation-biogeochemistry-isotope model. Studies that focused on the trophic ecology of squids using isotopic techniques were few, and most of the information on squids was from studies on their predators. Our results showed that squids occupy a large range of trophic positions and exploit a large range of trophic resources, reflecting the versatility of their feeding behavior and confirming conclusions from food-web models. Clear differences in both trophic position and trophic width were found among oceans and ecosystem types. The study also reinforces the importance of considering the natural variation in isotopic values when comparing the isotopic values of consumers inhabiting different ecosystems.

  11. Diet compositions and trophic guild structure of the eastern Chukchi Sea demersal fish community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehouse, George A.; Buckley, Troy W.; Danielson, Seth L.

    2017-01-01

    Fishes are an important link in Arctic marine food webs, connecting production of lower trophic levels to apex predators. We analyzed 1773 stomach samples from 39 fish species collected during a bottom trawl survey of the eastern Chukchi Sea in the summer of 2012. We used hierarchical cluster analysis of diet dissimilarities on 21 of the most well sampled species to identify four distinct trophic guilds: gammarid amphipod consumers, benthic invertebrate generalists, fish and shrimp consumers, and zooplankton consumers. The trophic guilds reflect dominant prey types in predator diets. We used constrained analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) to determine if variation within the composite guild diets could be explained by a suite of non-diet variables. All CAP models explained a significant proportion of the variance in the diet matrices, ranging from 7% to 25% of the total variation. Explanatory variables tested included latitude, longitude, predator length, depth, and water mass. These results indicate a trophic guild structure is present amongst the demersal fish community during summer in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Regular monitoring of the food habits of the demersal fish community will be required to improve our understanding of the spatial, temporal, and interannual variation in diet composition, and to improve our ability to identify and predict the impacts of climate change and commercial development on the structure and functioning of the Chukchi Sea ecosystem.

  12. Trophic interactions, ecosystem structure and function in the southern Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qun; Jin, Xianshi; Zhang, Bo

    2013-01-01

    The southern Yellow Sea is an important fishing ground, providing abundant fishery resources. However, overfishing and climate change have caused a decline in the resource and damaged the ecosystem. We developed an ecosystem model to analyze the trophic interactions and ecosystem structure and function to guide sustainable development of the ecosystem. A trophic mass-balance model of the southern Yellow Sea during 2000-2001 was constructed using Ecopath with Ecosim software. We defined 22 important functional groups and studied their diet composition. The trophic levels of fish, shrimp, crabs, and cephalopods were between 2.78 and 4.39, and the mean trophic level of the fisheries was 3.24. The trophic flows within the food web occurred primarily in the lower trophic levels. The mean trophic transfer efficiency was 8.1%, of which 7.1% was from primary producers and 9.3% was from detritus within the ecosystem. The transfer efficiency between trophic levels II to III to IV to V to >V was 5.0%, 5.7%, 18.5%, and 19.7%-20.4%, respectively. Of the total flow, phytoplankton contributed 61% and detritus contributed 39%. Fishing is defined as a top predator within the ecosystem, and has a negative impact on most commercial species. Moreover, the ecosystem had a high gross efficiency of the fishery and a high value of primary production required to sustain the fishery. Together, our data suggest there is high fishing pressure in the southern Yellow Sea. Based on analysis of Odum's ecological parameters, this ecosystem was at an immature stage. Our results provide some insights into the structure and development of this ecosystem.

  13. Evolutionary trade-offs in plants mediate the strength of trophic cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Kailen A; Halitschke, Rayko; Kessler, Andre; Agrawal, Anurag A

    2010-03-26

    Predators determine herbivore and plant biomass via so-called trophic cascades, and the strength of such effects is influenced by ecosystem productivity. To determine whether evolutionary trade-offs among plant traits influence patterns of trophic control, we manipulated predators and soil fertility and measured impacts of a major herbivore (the aphid Aphis nerii) on 16 milkweed species (Asclepias spp.) in a phylogenetic field experiment. Herbivore density was determined by variation in predation and trade-offs between herbivore resistance and plant growth strategy. Neither herbivore density nor predator effects on herbivores predicted the cascading effects of predators on plant biomass. Instead, cascade strength was strongly and positively associated with milkweed response to soil fertility. Accordingly, contemporary patterns of trophic control are driven by evolutionary convergent trade-offs faced by plants.

  14. Long term patterns in the late summer trophic niche of the invasive pumpkinseed sunfish Lepomis gibbosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gkenas C.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the trophic dynamics of invasive species in novel habitats is important for predicting the success of potential invaders and evaluating their ecological effects. The North American pumpkinseed sunfish Lepomis gibbosus is a successful invader in Europe, where it has caused negative ecological effects primarily through trophic interactions. Here, we quantified variations in the late summer trophic niche of pumpkinseed during establishment and integration in the mainstem of the Guadiana river, using stomach content analyses over a period of 40 years. Pumpkinseed showed a shift from trophic specialization during establishment to trophic generalism during integration. These results were concomitant with an increase in diet breadth that was accompanied by higher individual diet specialization particularly in large individuals. Irrespective of their drivers, these changes in trophic niche suggest that the potential ecological effects of pumpkinseed on recipient ecosystems can vary temporally along the invasion process.

  15. Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Fernández, Emilio; Teira, Eva; Tilstone, Gavin; Pérez, Valesca

    2009-07-01

    We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO 14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S-45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245-1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO 14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO 14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO 14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates.

  16. Competition influence in the segregation of the trophic niche of otariids: a case study using isotopic Bayesian mixing models in Galapagos pinnipeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Páez-Rosas, Diego; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mónica; Riofrío-Lazo, Marjorie

    2014-12-15

    The feeding success of predators is associated with the competition level for resources, and, thus, sympatric species are exposed to a potential trophic overlap. Isotopic Bayesian mixing models should provide a better understanding of the contribution of preys to the diet of predators and the feeding behavior of a species over time. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures from pup hair samples of 93 Galapagos sea lions and 48 Galapagos fur seals collected between 2003 and 2009 in different regions (east and west) of the archipelago were analyzed. A PDZ Europa ANCA-GSL elemental analyzer interfaced with a PDZ Europa 20-20 continuous flow gas source mass spectrometer was employed. Bayesian models, SIAR and SIBER, were used to estimate the contribution of prey to the diet of predators, the niche breadth, and the trophic overlap level between the populations. Statistical differences in the isotopic values of both predators were observed over the time. The mixing model determined that Galapagos fur seals had a primarily teutophagous diet, whereas the Galapagos sea lions fed exclusively on fish in both regions of the archipelago. The SIBER analysis showed differences in the trophic niche between the two sea lion populations, with the western rookery of the Galapagos sea lion being the population with the largest trophic niche area. A trophic niche partitioning between Galapagos fur seals and Galapagos sea lions in the west of the archipelago is suggested by our results. At intraspecific level, the western population of the Galapagos sea lion (ZwW) showed higher trophic breadth than the eastern population, a strategy adopted by the ZwW to decrease the interspecific competition levels in the western region. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Modelling impacts of offshore wind farms on trophic web: the Courseulles-sur-Mer case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoux, Aurore; Pezy, Jean-Philippe; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; Tecchio, samuele; Degraer, Steven; Wilhelmsson, Dan; Niquil, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    The French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy. These offshore wind farms will integrate into an ecosystem already subject to a growing number of anthropogenic disturbances such as transportation, fishing, sediment deposit, and sediment extraction. The possible effects of this cumulative stressors on ecosystem functioning are still unknown, but they could impact their resilience, making them susceptible to changes from one stable state to another. Understanding the behaviour of these marine coastal complex systems is essential in order to anticipate potential state changes, and to implement conservation actions in a sustainable manner. Currently, there are no global and integrated studies on the effects of construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms. Moreover, approaches are generally focused on the conservation of some species or groups of species. Here, we develop a holistic and integrated view of ecosystem impacts through the use of trophic webs modelling tools. Trophic models describe the interaction between biological compartments at different trophic levels and are based on the quantification of flow of energy and matter in ecosystems. They allow the application of numerical methods for the characterization of emergent properties of the ecosystem, also called Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). These indices have been proposed as ecosystem health indicators as they have been demonstrated to be sensitive to different impacts on marine ecosystems. We present here in detail the strategy for analysing the potential environmental impacts of the construction of the Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (Bay of Seine) such as the reef effect through the use of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. Similar Ecopath simulations will be made in the future on the Le Tréport offshore wind farm site. Results will contribute to a better knowledge of the impacts of the offshore wind farms on ecosystems. They also allow to

  18. Analysis and prediction of agricultural pest dynamics with Tiko'n, a generic tool to develop agroecological food web models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Anandaraja, N.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2016-12-01

    While several well-validated crop growth models are currently widely used, very few crop pest models of the same caliber have been developed or applied, and pest models that take trophic interactions into account are even rarer. This may be due to several factors, including 1) the difficulty of representing complex agroecological food webs in a quantifiable model, and 2) the general belief that pesticides effectively remove insect pests from immediate concern. However, pests currently claim a substantial amount of harvests every year (and account for additional control costs), and the impact of insects and of their trophic interactions on agricultural crops cannot be ignored, especially in the context of changing climates and increasing pressures on crops across the globe. Unfortunately, most integrated pest management frameworks rely on very simple models (if at all), and most examples of successful agroecological management remain more anecdotal than scientifically replicable. In light of this, there is a need for validated and robust agroecological food web models that allow users to predict the response of these webs to changes in management, crops or climate, both in order to predict future pest problems under a changing climate as well as to develop effective integrated management plans. Here we present Tiko'n, a Python-based software whose API allows users to rapidly build and validate trophic web agroecological models that predict pest dynamics in the field. The programme uses a Bayesian inference approach to calibrate the models according to field data, allowing for the reuse of literature data from various sources and reducing the need for extensive field data collection. We apply the model to the cononut black-headed caterpillar (Opisina arenosella) and associated parasitoid data from Sri Lanka, showing how the modeling framework can be used to rapidly develop, calibrate and validate models that elucidate how the internal structures of food webs

  19. Tempo of trophic evolution and its impact on mammalian diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Samantha A; Hopkins, Samantha S B; Smith, Kathleen K; Roth, V Louise

    2012-05-01

    Mammals are characterized by the complex adaptations of their dentition, which are an indication that diet has played a critical role in their evolutionary history. Although much attention has focused on diet and the adaptations of specific taxa, the role of diet in large-scale diversification patterns remains unresolved. Contradictory hypotheses have been proposed, making prediction of the expected relationship difficult. We show that net diversification rate (the cumulative effect of speciation and extinction), differs significantly among living mammals, depending upon trophic strategy. Herbivores diversify fastest, carnivores are intermediate, and omnivores are slowest. The tempo of transitions between the trophic strategies is also highly biased: the fastest rates occur into omnivory from herbivory and carnivory and the lowest transition rates are between herbivory and carnivory. Extant herbivore and carnivore diversity arose primarily through diversification within lineages, whereas omnivore diversity evolved by transitions into the strategy. The ability to specialize and subdivide the trophic niche allowed herbivores and carnivores to evolve greater diversity than omnivores.

  20. From neurons to epidemics: How trophic coherence affects spreading processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaise, Janis; Johnson, Samuel

    2016-06-01

    Trophic coherence, a measure of the extent to which the nodes of a directed network are organised in levels, has recently been shown to be closely related to many structural and dynamical aspects of complex systems, including graph eigenspectra, the prevalence or absence of feedback cycles, and linear stability. Furthermore, non-trivial trophic structures have been observed in networks of neurons, species, genes, metabolites, cellular signalling, concatenated words, P2P users, and world trade. Here, we consider two simple yet apparently quite different dynamical models—one a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model adapted to include complex contagion and the other an Amari-Hopfield neural network—and show that in both cases the related spreading processes are modulated in similar ways by the trophic coherence of the underlying networks. To do this, we propose a network assembly model which can generate structures with tunable trophic coherence, limiting in either perfectly stratified networks or random graphs. We find that trophic coherence can exert a qualitative change in spreading behaviour, determining whether a pulse of activity will percolate through the entire network or remain confined to a subset of nodes, and whether such activity will quickly die out or endure indefinitely. These results could be important for our understanding of phenomena such as epidemics, rumours, shocks to ecosystems, neuronal avalanches, and many other spreading processes.

  1. Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edoardo Calizza

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential

  2. Trophic transfer of microplastics in aquatic ecosystems: Identifying critical research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Sarah Y; Lee, Cindy M; Weinstein, John E; van den Hurk, Peter; Klaine, Stephen J

    2017-05-01

    To evaluate the process of trophic transfer of microplastics, it is important to consider various abiotic and biotic factors involved in their ingestion, egestion, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification. Toward this end, a review of the literature on microplastics has been conducted to identify factors influencing their uptake and absorption; their residence times in organisms and bioaccumulation; the physical effects of their aggregation in gastrointestinal tracts; and their potential to act as vectors for the transfer of other contaminants. Limited field evidence from higher trophic level organisms in a variety of habitats suggests that trophic transfer of microplastics may be a common phenomenon and occurs concurrently with direct ingestion. Critical research needs include standardizing methods of field characterization of microplastics, quantifying uptake and depuration rates in organisms at different trophic levels, quantifying the influence that microplastics have on the uptake and/or depuration of environmental contaminants among different trophic levels, and investigating the potential for biomagnification of microplastic-associated chemicals. More integrated approaches involving computational modeling are required to fully assess trophic transfer of microplastics. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:505-509. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  3. Study of silver-110M transfer mechanisms in freshwater. Conceiving and utilization of an experimental model of ecosystem and of a mathematical model to simulate the radionuclide through a trophic chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.

    1990-10-01

    Uptake and retention of 110m Ag are quantified from laboratory studies carried out on an experimental freshwater ecosystem composed by two abiotic units, water and sediment, and by four trophic levels: primary producer (Scenedesmus obliquus), first order consumers (Daphnia magna, Gammarus pulex, Chrionomus sp.), second order consumer (Cyprinus carpio) and third order one (Salmo trutta). The chosen analytical process consists in expressing each transfer by a mathematical equation which formulation is based on a theoric analysis. Experiments allow to calibrate parameters of these equations for each unit of the food chain. All experimental data concerning 110m Ag uptake emphasize the radioprotection implications of this radioelement, because of the high values of the estimated radioecological parameters. On the basis of the results obtained, a determinist mathematical model has been conceived to simulate the radionuclide distribution in the food chain as a function of a chronic or acute contamination mode. Its application gives the development with time of the mean 110m Ag concentration values for each trophic level. The first approaches based on the analysis of the results of field studies, carried out on ecosystems affected by chronic pollution (Rhone river) or acute one (as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident), give to the model an important explicative and global predictive quality. The age of the fish, their dietary habits which vary according to the annual cycle of the prey species and with theirposition in the food chain, appear such as essential parameters. The trophic pathway is clearly predominant whatever the contamination mode and, explains, for acute exposure, why accumulation of 110m Ag can be prolonged for a long time after the surrounding environment contamination [fr

  4. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Puerta

    Full Text Available Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla and sea surface temperature (SST, and trophic (prey density conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents

  5. Trophic diversity of Poznań Lakeland lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dzieszko Piotr

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of the presented work is to determine the current trophic state of 31 lakes located in Poznań Lakeland. These lakes are included in the lake monitoring programme executed by the Voivodship Environmental Protection Inspectorate in Poznań. The place in the trophic classification for investigated lakes was determined as well as the relationships between their trophic state indices. The trophic state of investigated lakes in the research area is poor. More than a half of the investigated lakes are eutrophic. Depending on the factor that is taken into account the trophic state of investigated lakes differs radically.

  6. The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-02-07

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  7. The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  8. Fish community reassembly after a coral mass mortality: higher trophic groups are subject to increased rates of extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, David; Pinyol-Gallemí, Aleix; Alcoverro, Teresa; Arthur, Rohan

    2015-05-01

    Since Gleason and Clements, our understanding of community dynamics has been influenced by theories emphasising either dispersal or niche assembly as central to community structuring. Determining the relative importance of these processes in structuring real-world communities remains a challenge. We tracked reef fish community reassembly after a catastrophic coral mortality in a relatively unfished archipelago. We revisited the stochastic model underlying MacArthur and Wilson's Island Biogeography Theory, with a simple extension to account for trophic identity. Colonisation and extinction rates calculated from decadal presence-absence data based on (1) species neutrality, (2) trophic identity and (3) site-specificity were used to model post-disturbance reassembly, and compared with empirical observations. Results indicate that species neutrality holds within trophic guilds, and trophic identity significantly increases overall model performance. Strikingly, extinction rates increased clearly with trophic position, indicating that fish communities may be inherently susceptible to trophic downgrading even without targeted fishing of top predators. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  9. Analysis and prediction of pest dynamics in an agroforestry context using Tiko'n, a generic tool to develop food web models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Marcela; Malard, Julien; Adamowski, Jan; Carrera, Jaime Luis; Maas, Raúl

    2017-04-01

    While it is known that climate change will impact future plant-pest population dynamics, potentially affecting crop damage, agroforestry with its enhanced biodiversity is said to reduce the outbreaks of pest insects by providing natural enemies for the control of pest populations. This premise is known in the literature as the natural enemy hypothesis and has been widely studied qualitatively. However, disagreement still exists on whether biodiversity enhancement reduces pest outbreaks, showing the need of quantitatively understanding the mechanisms behind the interactions between pests and natural enemies, also known as trophic interactions. Crop pest models that study insect population dynamics in agroforestry contexts are very rare, and pest models that take trophic interactions into account are even rarer. This may be due to the difficulty of representing complex food webs in a quantifiable model. There is therefore a need for validated food web models that allow users to predict the response of these webs to changes in climate in agroforestry systems. In this study we present Tiko'n, a Python-based software whose API allows users to rapidly build and validate trophic web models; the program uses a Bayesian inference approach to calibrate the models according to field data, allowing for the reuse of literature data from various sources and reducing the need for extensive field data collection. Tiko'n was run using coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella) and associated parasitoid data from a shaded coffee plantation, showing the mechanisms of insect population dynamics within a tri-trophic food web in an agroforestry system.

  10. Trophic ecomorphology of Siluriformes (Pisces, Osteichthyes) from a tropical stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagotto, J P A; Goulart, E; Oliveira, E F; Yamamura, C B

    2011-05-01

    The present study analysed the relationship between morphology and trophic structure of Siluriformes (Pisces, Osteichthyes) from the Caracu Stream (22º 45' S and 53º 15' W), a tributary of the Paraná River (Brazil). Sampling was carried out at three sites using electrofishing, and two species of Loricariidae and four of Heptapteridae were obtained. A cluster analysis revealed the presence of three trophic guilds (detritivores, insectivores and omnivores). Principal components analysis demonstrated the segregation of two ecomorphotypes: at one extreme there were the detritivores (Loricariidae) with morphological structures that are fundamental in allowing them to fix themselves to substrates characterised by rushing torrents, thus permitting them to graze on the detritus and organic materials encrusted on the substrate; at the other extreme of the gradient there were the insectivores and omnivores (Heptapteridae), with morphological characteristics that promote superior performance in the exploitation of structurally complex habitats with low current velocity, colonised by insects and plants. Canonical discriminant analysis revealed an ecomorphological divergence between insectivores, which have morphological structures that permit them to capture prey in small spaces among rocks, and omnivores, which have a more compressed body and tend to explore food items deposited in marginal backwater zones. Mantel tests showed that trophic structure was significantly related to the body shape of a species, independently of the phylogenetic history, indicating that, in this case, there was an ecomorphotype for each trophic guild. Therefore, the present study demonstrated that the Siluriformes of the Caracu Stream were ecomorphologically structured and that morphology can be applied as an additional tool in predicting the trophic structure of this group.

  11. Trophic ecomorphology of Siluriformes (Pisces, Osteichthyes from a tropical stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JPA Pagotto

    Full Text Available The present study analysed the relationship between morphology and trophic structure of Siluriformes (Pisces, Osteichthyes from the Caracu Stream (22º 45' S and 53º 15' W, a tributary of the Paraná River (Brazil. Sampling was carried out at three sites using electrofishing, and two species of Loricariidae and four of Heptapteridae were obtained. A cluster analysis revealed the presence of three trophic guilds (detritivores, insectivores and omnivores. Principal components analysis demonstrated the segregation of two ecomorphotypes: at one extreme there were the detritivores (Loricariidae with morphological structures that are fundamental in allowing them to fix themselves to substrates characterised by rushing torrents, thus permitting them to graze on the detritus and organic materials encrusted on the substrate; at the other extreme of the gradient there were the insectivores and omnivores (Heptapteridae, with morphological characteristics that promote superior performance in the exploitation of structurally complex habitats with low current velocity, colonised by insects and plants. Canonical discriminant analysis revealed an ecomorphological divergence between insectivores, which have morphological structures that permit them to capture prey in small spaces among rocks, and omnivores, which have a more compressed body and tend to explore food items deposited in marginal backwater zones. Mantel tests showed that trophic structure was significantly related to the body shape of a species, independently of the phylogenetic history, indicating that, in this case, there was an ecomorphotype for each trophic guild. Therefore, the present study demonstrated that the Siluriformes of the Caracu Stream were ecomorphologically structured and that morphology can be applied as an additional tool in predicting the trophic structure of this group.

  12. Holistic assessment of Chwaka Bay's multi-gear fishery - Using a trophic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehren, Jennifer; Wolff, Matthias; Jiddawi, Narriman

    2018-04-01

    East African coastal communities highly depend on marine resources for not just income but also protein supply. The multi-species, multi-gear nature of East African fisheries makes this type of fishery particularly difficult to manage, as there is a trade-off between maximizing total catch from all gears and species and minimizing overfishing of target species and the disintegration of the ecosystem. The use and spatio-temporal overlap of multiple gears in Chwaka Bay (Zanzibar) has led to severe conflicts between fishermen. There is a general concern of overfishing in the bay because of the widespread use of small mesh sizes and destructive gears such as dragnets and spear guns. We constructed an Ecopath food web model to describe the current trophic flow structure and fishing pattern of the bay. Based on this model, we explored the impact of different gears on the ecosystem and the fishing community in order to give advice for gear based management in the bay. Results indicate that Chwaka bay is a productive, shallow water system, with biomass concentrations around the first and second trophic level. The system is greatly bottom-up driven and dominated by primary producers and invertebrates. The trophic and network indicators as well as the community energetics characterize Chwaka Bay as relatively mature. Traps and dragnets have the strongest impact on the ecosystem and on the catches obtained by other gears. Both gears potentially destabilize the ecosystem by reducing the biomass of top-down controlling key species (including important herbivores of macroalgae). The dragnet fishery is the least profitable, but provides most jobs for the fishing community. Thus, a complete ban of dragnets in the bay would require the provision of alternative livelihoods. Due to the low resource biomass of fish in the bay and the indication of a loss of structural control of certain fish groups, Chwaka Bay does not seem to provide scope for further expansion of the fishery

  13. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system during the 1980s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shannon, L.J.; Jarre, Astrid

    1999-01-01

    A model of trophic flows through the northern Benguela between 1980 and 1989 was constructed using the ECOPATH approach. The model serves to close the temporal gap between models of the system for the 1970s and 1990s. The aim is to provide a workable model, with the intention of encouraging...... in the northern Benguela during the 1980s was high, comparable to that of the Peruvian system in the 1960s and almost double that of the northern Benguela during the 1970s. Horse mackerel and hake catches were both high, with fishing on hake being ecologically more expensive. Biomass of benthic producers, meio...

  14. Enhanced understanding of ectoparasite: host trophic linkages on coral reefs through stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demopoulos, Amanda W. J.; Sikkel, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Parasitism, although the most common type of ecological interaction, is usually ignored in food web models and studies of trophic connectivity. Stable isotope analysis is widely used in assessing the flow of energy in ecological communities and thus is a potentially valuable tool in understanding the cryptic trophic relationships mediated by parasites. In an effort to assess the utility of stable isotope analysis in understanding the role of parasites in complex coral-reef trophic systems, we performed stable isotope analysis on three common Caribbean reef fish hosts and two kinds of ectoparasitic isopods: temporarily parasitic gnathiids (Gnathia marleyi) and permanently parasitic cymothoids (Anilocra). To further track the transfer of fish-derived carbon (energy) from parasites to parasite consumers, gnathiids from host fish were also fed to captive Pederson shrimp (Ancylomenes pedersoni) for at least 1 month. Parasitic isopods had δ13C and δ15N values similar to their host, comparable with results from the small number of other host–parasite studies that have employed stable isotopes. Adult gnathiids were enriched in 15N and depleted in13C relative to juvenile gnathiids, providing insights into the potential isotopic fractionation associated with blood-meal assimilation and subsequent metamorphosis. Gnathiid-fed Pedersen shrimp also had δ13C values consistent with their food source and enriched in 15N as predicted due to trophic fractionation. These results further indicate that stable isotopes can be an effective tool in deciphering cryptic feeding relationships involving parasites and their consumers, and the role of parasites and cleaners in carbon transfer in coral-reef ecosystems specifically.

  15. Enhanced understanding of ectoparasite–host trophic linkages on coral reefs through stable isotope analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda W.J. Demopoulos

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Parasitism, although the most common type of ecological interaction, is usually ignored in food web models and studies of trophic connectivity. Stable isotope analysis is widely used in assessing the flow of energy in ecological communities and thus is a potentially valuable tool in understanding the cryptic trophic relationships mediated by parasites. In an effort to assess the utility of stable isotope analysis in understanding the role of parasites in complex coral-reef trophic systems, we performed stable isotope analysis on three common Caribbean reef fish hosts and two kinds of ectoparasitic isopods: temporarily parasitic gnathiids (Gnathia marleyi and permanently parasitic cymothoids (Anilocra. To further track the transfer of fish-derived carbon (energy from parasites to parasite consumers, gnathiids from host fish were also fed to captive Pederson shrimp (Ancylomenes pedersoni for at least 1 month. Parasitic isopods had δ13C and δ15N values similar to their host, comparable with results from the small number of other host–parasite studies that have employed stable isotopes. Adult gnathiids were enriched in 15N and depleted in 13C relative to juvenile gnathiids, providing insights into the potential isotopic fractionation associated with blood-meal assimilation and subsequent metamorphosis. Gnathiid-fed Pedersen shrimp also had δ13C values consistent with their food source and enriched in 15N as predicted due to trophic fractionation. These results further indicate that stable isotopes can be an effective tool in deciphering cryptic feeding relationships involving parasites and their consumers, and the role of parasites and cleaners in carbon transfer in coral-reef ecosystems specifically.

  16. Food chain model to predict westslope cutthroat trout ovary selenium concentrations from water concentrations in the Elk Valley, BC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orr, P.; Wiramanaden, C.; Franklin, W.; Fraser, C.

    2010-01-01

    The 5 coal mines operated by Teck Coal Ltd. in British Columbia's Elk River watershed release selenium during weathering of mine waste rock. Since 1966, several field studies have been conducted in which selenium concentrations in biota were measured. They revealed that tissue concentrations are higher in aquatic biota sampled in lentic compared to lotic habitats of the watershed with similar water selenium concentrations. Two food chain models were developed based on the available data. The models described dietary selenium accumulation in the ovaries of lotic versus lentic westslope cutthroat trout (WCT), a valued aquatic resource in the Elk River system. The following 3 trophic transfer relationships were characterized for each model: (1) water to base of the food web, (2) base of the food web to benthic invertebrates, and (3) benthic invertebrates to WCT ovaries. The lotic and lentic models combined the resulting equations for each trophic transfer relationships to predict WCT ovary concentrations from water concentrations. The models were in very good agreement with the available data, despite fish movement and the fact that composite benthic invertebrate sample data were only an approximation of the feeding preferences of individual fish. Based on the observed rates of increase in water selenium concentrations throughout the watershed, the models predicted very small/slow increases in WCT ovary concentrations with time.

  17. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  18. Influence of dispersants on trophic transfer of petroleum hydrocarbons in a marine food chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfe, M. F.; Schwartz, G. J. B.; Singaram, S.; Tjeerdema, R. S.

    1997-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to determine the impact of dispersing agents on petroleum hydrocarbons (PH) bioavailability and trophic transfer in primary levels of a marine food chain. Uptake, bioaccumulation and metabolic transformation of a model PH, ( 1 4C)naphthalene, were measured and compared with Prudhoe Bay Crude Oil (PBCO) dispersed with Corexit 9527, and undispersed preparations of PBCO. The model food chain consisted of a primary algae producer and a primary rotifer consumer. Results showed that uptake of naphthalene increased significantly in the presence of a dispersant in algae. A significant increase in uptake was also recorded in rotifers via trophic transfer. Trophic transfer played a significant, sometimes even dominant, role in uptake and bioaccumulation. 27 refs., 6 figs

  19. Trophic magnification of PCBs and Its relationship to the octanol-water partition coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, David M; Mills, Marc A; Cade, Brian S; Burkard, Lawrence P

    2011-05-01

    We investigated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation relative to octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW)) and organism trophic position (TP) at the Lake Hartwell Superfund site (South Carolina). We measured PCBs (127 congeners) and stable isotopes (δ¹⁵N) in sediment, organic matter, phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and fish. TP, as calculated from δ¹⁵N, was significantly, positively related to PCB concentrations, and food web trophic magnification factors (TMFs) ranged from 1.5-6.6 among congeners. TMFs of individual congeners increased strongly with log K(OW), as did the predictive power (r²) of individual TP-PCB regression models used to calculate TMFs. We developed log K(OW)-TMF models for eight food webs with vastly different environments (freshwater, marine, arctic, temperate) and species composition (cold- vs warmblooded consumers). The effect of K(OW) on congener TMFs varied strongly across food webs (model slopes 0.0-15.0) because the range of TMFs among studies was also highly variable. We standardized TMFs within studies to mean = 0, standard deviation (SD) = 1 to normalize for scale differences and found a remarkably consistent K(OW) effect on TMFs (no difference in model slopes among food webs). Our findings underscore the importance of hydrophobicity (as characterized by K(OW)) in regulating bioaccumulation of recalcitrant compounds in aquatic systems, and demonstrate that relationships between chemical K(OW) and bioaccumulation from field studies are more generalized than previously recognized.

  20. Not all jellyfish are equal: isotopic evidence for inter- and intraspecific variation in jellyfish trophic ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas E.C. Fleming

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Jellyfish are highly topical within studies of pelagic food-webs and there is a growing realisation that their role is more complex than once thought. Efforts being made to include jellyfish within fisheries and ecosystem models are an important step forward, but our present understanding of their underlying trophic ecology can lead to their oversimplification in these models. Gelatinous zooplankton represent a polyphyletic assemblage spanning >2,000 species that inhabit coastal seas to the deep-ocean and employ a wide variety of foraging strategies. Despite this diversity, many contemporary modelling approaches include jellyfish as a single functional group feeding at one or two trophic levels at most. Recent reviews have drawn attention to this issue and highlighted the need for improved communication between biologists and theoreticians if this problem is to be overcome. We used stable isotopes to investigate the trophic ecology of three co-occurring scyphozoan jellyfish species (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea lamarckii and C. capillata within a temperate, coastal food-web in the NE Atlantic. Using information on individual size, time of year and δ13C and δ15N stable isotope values, we examined: (1 whether all jellyfish could be considered as a single functional group, or showed distinct inter-specific differences in trophic ecology; (2 Were size-based shifts in trophic position, found previously in A. aurita, a common trait across species?; (3 When considered collectively, did the trophic position of three sympatric species remain constant over time? Differences in δ15N (trophic position were evident between all three species, with size-based and temporal shifts in δ15N apparent in A. aurita and C. capillata. The isotopic niche width for all species combined increased throughout the season, reflecting temporal shifts in trophic position and seasonal succession in these gelatinous species. Taken together, these findings support previous

  1. Not all jellyfish are equal: isotopic evidence for inter- and intraspecific variation in jellyfish trophic ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Nicholas E C; Harrod, Chris; Newton, Jason; Houghton, Jonathan D R

    2015-01-01

    Jellyfish are highly topical within studies of pelagic food-webs and there is a growing realisation that their role is more complex than once thought. Efforts being made to include jellyfish within fisheries and ecosystem models are an important step forward, but our present understanding of their underlying trophic ecology can lead to their oversimplification in these models. Gelatinous zooplankton represent a polyphyletic assemblage spanning >2,000 species that inhabit coastal seas to the deep-ocean and employ a wide variety of foraging strategies. Despite this diversity, many contemporary modelling approaches include jellyfish as a single functional group feeding at one or two trophic levels at most. Recent reviews have drawn attention to this issue and highlighted the need for improved communication between biologists and theoreticians if this problem is to be overcome. We used stable isotopes to investigate the trophic ecology of three co-occurring scyphozoan jellyfish species (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea lamarckii and C. capillata) within a temperate, coastal food-web in the NE Atlantic. Using information on individual size, time of year and δ (13)C and δ (15)N stable isotope values, we examined: (1) whether all jellyfish could be considered as a single functional group, or showed distinct inter-specific differences in trophic ecology; (2) Were size-based shifts in trophic position, found previously in A. aurita, a common trait across species?; (3) When considered collectively, did the trophic position of three sympatric species remain constant over time? Differences in δ (15)N (trophic position) were evident between all three species, with size-based and temporal shifts in δ (15)N apparent in A. aurita and C. capillata. The isotopic niche width for all species combined increased throughout the season, reflecting temporal shifts in trophic position and seasonal succession in these gelatinous species. Taken together, these findings support previous assertions

  2. Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales. PMID:23091621

  3. Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

  4. Bioenergetics, Trophic Ecology, and Niche Separation of Tunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R J; Young, J W; Ménard, F; Potier, M; Allain, V; Goñi, N; Logan, J M; Galván-Magaña, F

    Tunas are highly specialized predators that have evolved numerous adaptations for a lifestyle that requires large amounts of energy consumption. Here we review our understanding of the bioenergetics and feeding dynamics of tunas on a global scale, with an emphasis on yellowfin, bigeye, skipjack, albacore, and Atlantic bluefin tunas. Food consumption balances bioenergetics expenditures for respiration, growth (including gonad production), specific dynamic action, egestion, and excretion. Tunas feed across the micronekton and some large zooplankton. Some tunas appear to time their life history to take advantage of ephemeral aggregations of crustacean, fish, and molluscan prey. Ontogenetic and spatial diet differences are substantial, and significant interdecadal changes in prey composition have been observed. Diet shifts from larger to smaller prey taxa highlight ecosystem-wide changes in prey availability and diversity and provide implications for changing bioenergetics requirements into the future. Where tunas overlap, we show evidence of niche separation between them; resources are divided largely by differences in diet percentages and size ranges of prey taxa. The lack of long-term data limits the ability to predict impacts of climate change on tuna feeding behaviour. We note the need for systematic collection of feeding data as part of routine monitoring of these species, and we highlight the advantages of using biochemical techniques for broad-scale analyses of trophic relations. We support the continued development of ecosystem models, which all too often lack the regional-specific trophic data needed to adequately investigate climate and fishing impacts. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Trophically available metal - A variable feast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rainbow, Philip S.; Luoma, Samuel N.; Wang Wenxiong

    2011-01-01

    Assimilation of trace metals by predators from prey is affected by the physicochemical form of the accumulated metal in the prey, leading to the concept of a Trophically Available Metal (TAM) component in the food item definable in terms of particular subcellular fractions of accumulated metal. As originally defined TAM consists of soluble metal forms and metal associated with cell organelles, the combination of separated fractions which best explained particular results involving a decapod crustacean predator feeding on bivalve mollusc tissues. Unfortunately TAM as originally defined has subsequently frequently been used in the literature as an absolute description of that component of accumulated metal that is trophically available in all prey to all consumers. It is now clear that what is trophically available varies between food items, consumers and metals. TAM as originally defined should be seen as a useful starting hypothesis, not as a statement of fact. - Trophically Available Metal (TAM), the component of accumulated metal in food that is taken up by a feeding animal, varies with food type and consumer.

  6. Trophically available metal - A variable feast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rainbow, Philip S., E-mail: p.rainbow@nhm.ac.uk [Department of Zoology, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Rd, London SW7 5BD (United Kingdom); Luoma, Samuel N. [Department of Zoology, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Rd, London SW7 5BD (United Kingdom); John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wang Wenxiong [College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, State Key Laboratory for Marine Environmental Sciences, Xiamen University, Fujian (China)

    2011-10-15

    Assimilation of trace metals by predators from prey is affected by the physicochemical form of the accumulated metal in the prey, leading to the concept of a Trophically Available Metal (TAM) component in the food item definable in terms of particular subcellular fractions of accumulated metal. As originally defined TAM consists of soluble metal forms and metal associated with cell organelles, the combination of separated fractions which best explained particular results involving a decapod crustacean predator feeding on bivalve mollusc tissues. Unfortunately TAM as originally defined has subsequently frequently been used in the literature as an absolute description of that component of accumulated metal that is trophically available in all prey to all consumers. It is now clear that what is trophically available varies between food items, consumers and metals. TAM as originally defined should be seen as a useful starting hypothesis, not as a statement of fact. - Trophically Available Metal (TAM), the component of accumulated metal in food that is taken up by a feeding animal, varies with food type and consumer.

  7. Trophic interactions between native and introduced fish species in a littoral fish community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroy, M; Maceda-Veiga, A; Caiola, N; De Sostoa, A

    2014-11-01

    The trophic interactions between 15 native and two introduced fish species, silverside Odontesthes bonariensis and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, collected in a major fishery area at Lake Titicaca were explored by integrating traditional ecological knowledge and stable-isotope analyses (SIA). SIA suggested the existence of six trophic groups in this fish community based on δ(13)C and δ(15)N signatures. This was supported by ecological evidence illustrating marked spatial segregation between groups, but a similar trophic level for most of the native groups. Based on Bayesian ellipse analyses, niche overlap appeared to occur between small O. bonariensis (<90 mm) and benthopelagic native species (31.6%), and between the native pelagic killifish Orestias ispi and large O. bonariensis (39%) or O. mykiss (19.7%). In addition, Bayesian mixing models suggested that O. ispi and epipelagic species are likely to be the main prey items for the two introduced fish species. This study reveals a trophic link between native and introduced fish species, and demonstrates the utility of combining both SIA and traditional ecological knowledge to understand trophic relationships between fish species with similar feeding habits. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  8. Predicting lake trophic state by relating Secchi-disk transparency measurements to Landsat-satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, 2003-05 and 2007-08

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, L.M.; Jodoin, R.S.; Minnerick, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Sampling for this program began in 2001; by 2010, 730 of Michigan’s 11,000 inland lakes are expected to have been sampled once. Volunteers coordinated by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment began sampling lakes in 1974 and continue to sample (in 2010) approximately 250 inland lakes each year through the Michigan Cooperative Lakes Monitoring Program. Despite these sampling efforts, it still is impossible to physically collect measurements for all Michigan inland lakes; however, Landsat-satellite imagery has been used successfully in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere to predict the trophic state of unsampled inland lakes greater than 20 acres by producing regression equations relating in-place Secchi-disk measurements to Landsat bands. This study tested three alternatives to methods previously used in Michigan to improve results for predicted statewide Trophic State Index (TSI) computed from Secchi-disk transparency (TSI (SDT)). The alternative methods were used on 14 Landsat-satellite scenes with statewide TSI (SDT) for two time periods (2003– 05 and 2007–08). Specifically, the methods were (1) satellitedata processing techniques to remove areas affected by clouds, cloud shadows, haze, shoreline, and dense vegetation for inland lakes greater than 20 acres in Michigan; (2) comparison of the previous method for producing a single open-water predicted TSI (SDT) value (which was based on an area of interest (AOI) and lake-average approach) to an alternative Gethist method for identifying open-water areas in inland lakes (which follows the initial satellite-data processing and targets the darkest pixels, representing the deepest water

  9. The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kempf, Alexander; Dingsør, Gjert Endre; Huse, Geir

    2010-01-01

    The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect...... of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts...... and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods...

  10. Ecosystem differences in the trophic enrichment of 13C in aquatic food webs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    France, R.L.; Peters, R.H.

    1997-01-01

    Data from 35 published studies were collated to examine patterns in the trophic enrichment of 13 C of consumers. Because both δ 13 C and δ 14 N vary systematically across ecosystems, it was necessary to standardize for such differences before combining data from numerous sources. Relationships of these measures of ecosystem-standardized δ 13 C to ecosystem-standardized trophic position (Δδ 15 N) for freshwater, estuarine, coastal, and open-ocean and for all aquatic ecosystems yielded regression equations of low predictive capability (average of 20% explained variance in δ 13 C). However, differences were observed in the slopes between δ 13 C and standardized trophic position when data were examined study-specifically: the average trophic fractionation of 13 C was found to increase from +0.2micron for freshwater to +0.5micron for estuarine to +0.8micron for coastal, and to +1.1micron for open-ocean food webs. This ecosystem-specific gradient in 13 C enrichment for consumers supports previous findings of a similar continuum existing for zooplankton - particulate organic matter differences in δ 13 C. Possible mechanisms to explain these ecosystem-specific patterns in 13 C enrichment may be related to the relative importance of detritus, heterotrophic respiration, partial reliance on alternative food sources, and lipid influences in the different ecosystems. (author)

  11. Trophic factors as modulators of motor neuron physiology and survival: implications for ALS therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis B Tovar-y-Romo

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Motor neuron physiology and development depend on a continuous and tightly regulated trophic support from a variety of cellular sources. Trophic factors guide the generation and positioning of motor neurons during every stage of the developmental process. As well, they are involved in axon guidance and synapse formation. Even in the adult spinal cord an uninterrupted trophic input is required to maintain neuronal functioning and protection from noxious stimuli. Among the trophic factors that have been demonstrated to participate in motor neuron physiology are vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF, glial-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF, ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1. Upon binding to membrane receptors expressed in motor neurons or neighboring glia, these trophic factors activate intracellular signaling pathways that promote cell survival and have protective action on motor neurons, in both in vivo and in vitro models of neuronal degeneration. For these reasons these factors have been considered a promising therapeutic method for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS and other neurodegenerative diseases, although their efficacy in human clinical trials have not yet shown the expected protection. In this review we summarize experimental data on the role of these trophic factors in motor neuron function and survival, as well as their mechanisms of action. We also briefly discuss the potential therapeutic use of the trophic factors and why these therapies may have not been yet successful in the clinical use.

  12. Ecosystem Functions across Trophic Levels Are Linked to Functional and Phylogenetic Diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Patrick L.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Gonzalez, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    In experimental systems, it has been shown that biodiversity indices based on traits or phylogeny can outperform species richness as predictors of plant ecosystem function. However, it is unclear whether this pattern extends to the function of food webs in natural ecosystems. Here we tested whether zooplankton functional and phylogenetic diversity explains the functioning of 23 natural pond communities. We used two measures of ecosystem function: (1) zooplankton community biomass and (2) phytoplankton abundance (Chl a). We tested for diversity-ecosystem function relationships within and across trophic levels. We found a strong correlation between zooplankton diversity and ecosystem function, whereas local environmental conditions were less important. Further, the positive diversity-ecosystem function relationships were more pronounced for measures of functional and phylogenetic diversity than for species richness. Zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass were best predicted by different indices, suggesting that the two functions are dependent upon different aspects of diversity. Zooplankton community biomass was best predicted by zooplankton trait-based functional richness, while phytoplankton abundance was best predicted by zooplankton phylogenetic diversity. Our results suggest that the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem function can extend across trophic levels in natural environments, and that greater insight into variation in ecosystem function can be gained by combining functional and phylogenetic diversity measures. PMID:25693188

  13. Trophic specialization drives morphological evolution in sea snakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherratt, Emma; Rasmussen, Arne R; Sanders, Kate L

    2018-03-01

    Viviparous sea snakes are the most rapidly speciating reptiles known, yet the ecological factors underlying this radiation are poorly understood. Here, we reconstructed dated trees for 75% of sea snake species and quantified body shape (forebody relative to hindbody girth), maximum body length and trophic diversity to examine how dietary specialization has influenced morphological diversification in this rapid radiation. We show that sea snake body shape and size are strongly correlated with the proportion of burrowing prey in the diet. Specialist predators of burrowing eels have convergently evolved a 'microcephalic' morphotype with dramatically reduced forebody relative to hindbody girth and intermediate body length. By comparison, snakes that predominantly feed on burrowing gobies are generally short-bodied and small-headed, but there is no evidence of convergent evolution. The eel specialists also exhibit faster rates of size and shape evolution compared to all other sea snakes, including those that feed on gobies. Our results suggest that trophic specialization to particular burrowing prey (eels) has invoked strong selective pressures that manifest as predictable and rapid morphological changes. Further studies are needed to examine the genetic and developmental mechanisms underlying these dramatic morphological changes and assess their role in sea snake speciation.

  14. Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Dennis; Hamilton, David P.; Pilditch, Conrad A.

    2011-01-01

    To quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both in the t....... Therefore, future climate effects should be taken into account in the long-term planning and implementation of lake management as strategies may need to be refined and adapted to preserve or improve the present-day lake water quality....

  15. Trophic flow structure of the Danajon ecosystem (Central Philippines) and impacts of illegal and destructive fishing practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacalso, Regina Therese M.; Wolff, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    A trophic model of the shallow Danajon Bank, in the Central Visayas, Philippines was developed using a mass-balance approach (Ecopath) to describe the system characteristics and fisheries interactions. The Ecopath model is composed of 37 functional groups and 17 fishing fleet types reflecting the high diversity of catches and fishing operations in the Danajon Bank. Collectively, the catch is dominated by lower trophic level fish and invertebrates as reflected in the mean trophic level of the fishery (2.95). The low biomass and high exploitation levels for many upper trophic level groups and the little evidence for strong natural physical disturbances suggest that top-down fishery is the main driver of system dynamics. The mixed trophic impacts (MTI) analysis reveals the role of the illegal and destructive fishing operations in influencing the ecosystem structure and dynamics. Furthermore, the illegal fisheries' estimated collective annual harvest is equivalent to nearly a quarter of the entire municipal fisheries catch in the area. Improved fisheries law enforcement by the local government units to curb these illegal and destructive fishing operations could substantially increase the potential gains of the legal fisheries.

  16. Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A; Sydeman, William J; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Miller, Rebecca R; Wells, Brian K

    2017-03-01

    Human impacts (e.g., fishing, pollution, and shipping) on pelagic ecosystems are increasing, causing concerns about stresses on marine food webs. Maintaining predator-prey relationships through protection of pelagic hotspots is crucial for conservation and management of living marine resources. Biotic components of pelagic, plankton-based, ecosystems exhibit high variability in abundance in time and space (i.e., extreme patchiness), requiring investigation of persistence of abundance across trophic levels to resolve trophic hotspots. Using a 26-yr record of indicators for primary production, secondary (zooplankton and larval fish), and tertiary (seabirds) consumers, we show distributions of trophic hotspots in the southern California Current Ecosystem result from interactions between a strong upwelling center and a productive retention zone with enhanced nutrients, which concentrate prey and predators across multiple trophic levels. Trophic hotspots also overlap with human impacts, including fisheries extraction of coastal pelagic and groundfish species, as well as intense commercial shipping traffic. Spatial overlap of trophic hotspots with fisheries and shipping increases vulnerability of the ecosystem to localized depletion of forage fish, ship strikes on marine mammals, and pollution. This study represents a critical step toward resolving pelagic areas of high conservation interest for planktonic ecosystems and may serve as a model for other ocean regions where ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning of pelagic ecosystems is warranted. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Trophic flexibility and the persistence of understory birds in intensively logged rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, David P; Woodcock, Paul; Newton, Rob J; Edwards, Felicity A; Andrews, David J R; Docherty, Teegan D S; Mitchell, Simon L; Ota, Takahiro; Benedick, Suzan; Bottrell, Simon H; Hamer, Keith C

    2013-10-01

    Effects of logging on species composition in tropical rainforests are well known but may fail to reveal key changes in species interactions. We used nitrogen stable-isotope analysis of 73 species of understory birds to quantify trophic responses to repeated intensive logging of rainforest in northern Borneo and to test 4 hypotheses: logging has significant effects on trophic positions and trophic-niche widths of species, and the persistence of species in degraded forest is related to their trophic positions and trophic-niche widths in primary forest. Species fed from higher up the food chain and had narrower trophic-niche widths in degraded forest. Species with narrow trophic-niche widths in primary forest were less likely to persist after logging, a result that indicates a higher vulnerability of dietary specialists to local extinction following habitat disturbance. Persistence of species in degraded forest was not related to a species' trophic position. These results indicate changes in trophic organization that were not apparent from changes in species composition and highlight the importance of focusing on trophic flexibility over the prevailing emphasis on membership of static feeding guilds. Our results thus support the notion that alterations to trophic organization and interactions within tropical forests may be a pervasive and functionally important hidden effect of forest degradation. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Adaptive evolution of body size subject to indirect effect in trophic cascade system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Fan, Meng; Hao, Lina

    2017-09-01

    Trophic cascades represent a classic example of indirect effect and are wide-spread in nature. Their ecological impact are well established, but the evolutionary consequences have received even less theoretical attention. We theoretically and numerically investigate the trait (i.e., body size of consumer) evolution in response to indirect effect in a trophic cascade system. By applying the quantitative trait evolutionary theory and the adaptive dynamic theory, we formulate and explore two different types of eco-evolutionary resource-consumer-predator trophic cascade model. First, an eco-evolutionary model incorporating the rapid evolution is formulated to investigate the effect of rapid evolution of the consumer's body size, and to explore the impact of density-mediate indirect effect on the population dynamics and trait dynamics. Next, by employing the adaptive dynamic theory, a long-term evolutionary model of consumer body size is formulated to evaluate the effect of long-term evolution on the population dynamics and the effect of trait-mediate indirect effect. Those models admit rich dynamics that has not been observed yet in empirical studies. It is found that, both in the trait-mediated and density-mediated system, the body size of consumer in predator-consumer-resource interaction (indirect effect) evolves smaller than that in consumer-resource and predator-consumer interaction (direct effect). Moreover, in the density-mediated system, we found that the evolution of consumer body size contributes to avoiding consumer extinction (i.e., evolutionary rescue). The trait-mediate and density-mediate effects may produce opposite evolutionary response. This study suggests that the trophic cascade indirect effect affects consumer evolution, highlights a more comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the intricate interplay between ecological and evolutionary force. The modeling approaches provide avenue for study on indirect effects from an evolutionary perspective

  19. Trophic Cascades Induced by Lobster Fishing Are Not Ubiquitous in Southern California Kelp Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenther, Carla M.; Lenihan, Hunter S.; Grant, Laura E.; Lopez-Carr, David; Reed, Daniel C.

    2012-01-01

    Fishing can trigger trophic cascades that alter community structure and dynamics and thus modify ecosystem attributes. We combined ecological data of sea urchin and macroalgal abundance with fishery data of spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus) landings to evaluate whether: (1) patterns in the abundance and biomass among lobster (predator), sea urchins (grazer), and macroalgae (primary producer) in giant kelp forest communities indicated the presence of top-down control on urchins and macroalgae, and (2) lobster fishing triggers a trophic cascade leading to increased sea urchin densities and decreased macroalgal biomass. Eight years of data from eight rocky subtidal reefs known to support giant kelp forests near Santa Barbara, CA, USA, were analyzed in three-tiered least-squares regression models to evaluate the relationships between: (1) lobster abundance and sea urchin density, and (2) sea urchin density and macroalgal biomass. The models included reef physical structure and water depth. Results revealed a trend towards decreasing urchin density with increasing lobster abundance but little evidence that urchins control the biomass of macroalgae. Urchin density was highly correlated with habitat structure, although not water depth. To evaluate whether fishing triggered a trophic cascade we pooled data across all treatments to examine the extent to which sea urchin density and macroalgal biomass were related to the intensity of lobster fishing (as indicated by the density of traps pulled). We found that, with one exception, sea urchins remained more abundant at heavily fished sites, supporting the idea that fishing for lobsters releases top-down control on urchin grazers. Macroalgal biomass, however, was positively correlated with lobster fishing intensity, which contradicts the trophic cascade model. Collectively, our results suggest that factors other than urchin grazing play a major role in controlling macroalgal biomass in southern California kelp forests, and

  20. [Strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities of French research in trophic ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perga, Marie-Élodie; Danger, Michael; Dubois, Stanislas; Fritch, Clémentine; Gaucherel, Cédric; Hubas, Cedric; Jabot, Franck; Lacroix, Gérard; Lefebvre, Sébastien; Marmonier, Pierre; Bec, Alexandre

    2018-05-30

    The French National Institute of Ecology and Environment (INEE) aims at fostering pluridisciplinarity in Environmental Science and, for that purpose, funds ex muros research groups (GDR) on thematic topics. Trophic ecology has been identified as a scientific field in ecology that would greatly benefit from such networking activity, as being profoundly scattered. This has motivated the seeding of a GDR, entitled "GRET". The contours of the GRET's action, and its ability to fill these gaps within trophic ecology at the French national scale, will depend on the causes of this relative scattering. This study relied on a nationally broadcasted poll aiming at characterizing the field of trophic ecology in France. Amongst all the unique individuals that fulfilled the poll, over 300 belonged at least partly to the field of trophic ecology. The sample included all French public research institutes and career stages. Three main disruptions within the community of scientist in trophic ecology were identified. The first highlighted the lack of interfaces between microbial and trophic ecology. The second evidenced that research questions were strongly linked to single study fields or ecosystem type. Last, research activities are still quite restricted to the ecosystem boundaries. All three rupture points limit the conceptual and applied progression in the field of trophic ecology. Here we show that most of the disruptions within French Trophic Ecology are culturally inherited, rather than motivated by scientific reasons or justified by socio-economic stakes. Comparison with the current literature confirms that these disruptions are not necessarily typical of the French research landscape, but instead echo the general weaknesses of the international research in ecology. Thereby, communication and networking actions within and toward the community of trophic ecologists, as planned within the GRET's objectives, should contribute to fill these gaps, by reintegrating microbes within

  1. Ecomorphological patterns of the fish assemblage in a tropical floodplain: effects of trophic, spatial and phylogenetic structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Fontes Oliveira

    Full Text Available Ecomorphological patterns of the fish assemblage from the upper Paraná River floodplain, Brazil, were described and evaluated according to trophic (guilds, spatial (habitats and phylogenetic (taxonomic distances structures. The samples were obtained through the Long Term Research Project (LTER-CNPq/UEM/NUPELIA in August and October 2001. Thirty-five species were analyzed from thirty-one morphological variables. Strong significant correlations (Mantel test between morphology and trophic guilds and between morphology and taxonomy were found, while morphology and habitat revealed a weak correlation. However, the partial Mantel test showed that the correlations between morphology and trophic guilds persist even when the effect of taxonomy is discounted. The ecomorphological pattern shown by the Principal Component Analysis separated species according to locomotion structures used in feeding. At one extreme there are the piscivores and insectivores that exploit lentic habitats and have compressed bodies and well developed anal fins, while at the other there are detritivores and invertivores that exploit lotic and semi-lotic habitats and have depressed bodies and well developed pectoral, pelvic and caudal fins. Canonical Discriminant Analysis using ecomorphological variables successfully predicted 94.5% of the trophic guild ecomorphotypes, but only 57.1% of the habitat ecomorphotypes. These data indicate that the fish assemblage of the upper Paraná River floodplain is structured ecomorphologically mainly according to trophic structure rather than habitat.

  2. Effect of stock size, climate, predation, and trophic status on recruitment of alewives in Lake Ontario, 1978-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Robert; Lantry, Brian F.; Schneider, Clifford P.

    2004-01-01

    The population of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario is of great concern to fishery managers because alewives are the principal prey of introduced salmonines and because alewives negatively influence many endemic fishes. We used spring bottom trawl catches of alewives to investigate the roles of stock size, climate, predation, and lake trophic status on recruitment of alewives to age 2 in Lake Ontario during 1978–2000. Climate was indexed from the temperature of water entering a south-shore municipal treatment plant, lake trophic status was indexed by the mean concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in surface water in spring, and predation was indexed by the product of the number of salmonines stocked and relative, first-year survival of Chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha. A Ricker-type parent–progeny model suggested that peak production of age-1 alewives could occur over a broad range of spawning stock sizes, and the fit of the model was improved most by the addition of terms for spring water temperature and winter duration. With the addition of the two climate terms, the Ricker model indicated that when water was relatively warm in spring and the winter was relatively short, peak potential production of young was nine times higher than when water temperature and winters were average, and 73 times higher than when water was cold in spring and winters were long. Relative survival from age 1 to recruitment at age 2 was best described by a multiple linear regression with terms for adult abundance, TP, and predation. Mean recruitment of age-2 fish in the 1978–1998 year-classes predicted by using the two models in sequence was only about 20% greater than the observed mean recruitment. Model estimates fit the measured data exceptionally well for all but the largest four year-classes, which suggests that the models will facilitate improvement in estimates of trophic transfer due to alewives.

  3. Green Turtle Trophic Ecology

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — SWFSC is currently conducting a study of green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) trophic ecology in the eastern Pacific. Tissue samples and stable carbon and stable...

  4. Ecosystem structure and trophic analysis of Angolan fishery landings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronaldo Angelini

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on the mean trophic level of fishery landings in Angola and the output from a preliminary Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE model were used to examine the dynamics of the Angolan marine ecosystem. Results were compared with the nearby Namibian and South African ecosystems, which share some of the exploited fish populations. The results show that: (i The mean trophic level of Angola’s fish landings has not decreased over the years; (ii There are significant correlations between the landings of Angola, Namibia and South Africa; (iii The ecosystem attributes calculated by the EwE models for the three ecosystems were similar, and the main differences were related to the magnitude of flows and biomass; (iv The similarity among ecosystem trends for Namibia, South Africa and Angola re-emphasizes the need to continue collaborative regional studies on the fish stocks and their ecosystems. To improve the Angolan model it is necessary to gain a better understanding of plankton dynamics because plankton are essential for Sardinella spp. An expanded analysis of the gut contents of the fish species occupying Angola’s coastline is also necessary.

  5. Complexity of plant volatile-mediated interactions beyond the third trophic level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poelman, E.H.; Kos, M.

    2016-01-01

    Food chains of plant-associated communities typically reach beyond three trophic levels. The predators and parasitoids in the third trophic level are under attack by top predators or parasitised by hyperparasitoids. These higher trophic level organisms respond to plant volatiles in search of their

  6. Organochlorines in the Vaccares Lagoon trophic web (Biosphere Reserve of Camargue, France)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roche, H., E-mail: helene.roche@u-psud.f [Ecologie, Systematique et Evolution, UMR8079 CNRS, Universite Paris-Sud, AgroParisTech, F91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Vollaire, Y.; Persic, A.; Buet, A. [Ecologie, Systematique et Evolution, UMR8079 CNRS, Universite Paris-Sud, AgroParisTech, F91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Oliveira-Ribeiro, C. [Departamento de Biologia Celular, Universidade Federal do Parana, Caixa Postal 19031, CEP: 81.531-990, Curitiba, PR (Brazil); Coulet, E. [Nature Reserve of Camargue, La Capeliere, F13200 Arles (France); Banas, D.; Ramade, F. [Ecologie, Systematique et Evolution, UMR8079 CNRS, Universite Paris-Sud, AgroParisTech, F91405 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2009-08-15

    During a decade (1996-2006), ecotoxicological studies were carried out in biota of the Vaccares Lagoon (Biosphere Reserve in Rhone Delta, France). A multicontamination was shown at all levels of the trophic web due to a direct bioconcentration of chemical from the medium combined with a food transfer. Here, the pollutants investigated were organochlorines, among which many compounds banned or in the course of prohibition (or restriction) (PCB, lindane, pp'-DDE, dieldrin, aldrin, heptachlor, endosulfan...) and some substances likely still used in the Rhone River basin (diuron, fipronil). The results confirmed the ubiquity of contamination. It proves to be chronic, variable and tends to regress; however contamination levels depend on the trophic compartment. A biomagnification process was showed. A comparison of investigation methods used in other Mediterranean wetlands provides basis of discussion, and demonstrates the urgent need of modelling to assess the ecotoxicological risk in order to improve the management of such protected areas. - The Vaccares Lagoon trophic web biomagnifies organochlorine pollutants.

  7. Coastal habitats as surrogates for taxonomic, functional and trophic structures of benthic faunal communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Törnroos, Anna; Nordström, Marie C; Bonsdorff, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Due to human impact, there is extensive degradation and loss of marine habitats, which calls for measures that incorporate taxonomic as well as functional and trophic aspects of biodiversity. Since such data is less easily quantifiable in nature, the use of habitats as surrogates or proxies for biodiversity is on the rise in marine conservation and management. However, there is a critical gap in knowledge of whether pre-defined habitat units adequately represent the functional and trophic structure of communities. We also lack comparisons of different measures of community structure in terms of both between- (β) and within-habitat (α) variability when accounting for species densities. Thus, we evaluated a priori defined coastal habitats as surrogates for traditional taxonomic, functional and trophic zoobenthic community structure. We focused on four habitats (bare sand, canopy-forming algae, seagrass above- and belowground), all easily delineated in nature and defined through classification systems. We analyzed uni- and multivariate data on species and trait diversity as well as stable isotope ratios of benthic macrofauna. A good fit between habitat types and taxonomic and functional structure was found, although habitats were more similar functionally. This was attributed to within-habitat heterogeneity so when habitat divisions matched the taxonomic structure, only bare sand was functionally distinct. The pre-defined habitats did not meet the variability of trophic structure, which also proved to differentiate on a smaller spatial scale. The quantification of trophic structure using species density only identified an epi- and an infaunal unit. To summarize the results we present a conceptual model illustrating the match between pre-defined habitat types and the taxonomic, functional and trophic community structure. Our results show the importance of including functional and trophic aspects more comprehensively in marine management and spatial planning.

  8. Critical assessment and ramifications of a purported marine trophic cascade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubbs, R. Dean; Carlson, John K; Romine, Jason G.; Curtis, Tobey H; McElroy, W. David; McCandless, Camilla T; Cotton, Charles F; Musick, John A.

    2016-01-01

    When identifying potential trophic cascades, it is important to clearly establish the trophic linkages between predators and prey with respect to temporal abundance, demographics, distribution, and diet. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the depletion of large coastal sharks was thought to trigger a trophic cascade whereby predation release resulted in increased cownose ray abundance, which then caused increased predation on and subsequent collapse of commercial bivalve stocks. These claims were used to justify the development of a predator-control fishery for cownose rays, the “Save the Bay, Eat a Ray” fishery, to reduce predation on commercial bivalves. A reexamination of data suggests declines in large coastal sharks did not coincide with purported rapid increases in cownose ray abundance. Likewise, the increase in cownose ray abundance did not coincide with declines in commercial bivalves. The lack of temporal correlations coupled with published diet data suggest the purported trophic cascade is lacking the empirical linkages required of a trophic cascade. Furthermore, the life history parameters of cownose rays suggest they have low reproductive potential and their populations are incapable of rapid increases. Hypothesized trophic cascades should be closely scrutinized as spurious conclusions may negatively influence conservation and management decisions.

  9. Analysis of trophic interactions reveals highly plastic response to climate change in a tri-trophic High-Arctic ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hoye, Toke T.

    2016-01-01

    As a response to current climate changes, individual species have changed various biological traits, illustrating an inherent phenotypic plasticity. However, as species are embedded in an ecological network characterised by multiple consumer-resource interactions, ecological mismatches are likely...... to arise when interacting species do not respond homogeneously. The approach of biological networks analysis calls for the use of structural equation modelling (SEM), a multidimensional analytical setup that has proven particularly useful for analysing multiple interactions across trophic levels. Here we...

  10. Trophic ulcers in the carpal tunnel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abelardo Q.-C. Araújo

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available A patient with carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS and trophic ulcers is described. Despite the healing of the ulcers after surgery for CTS, the severe sensory deficit and the electrophysiological tests have not shown any significant improvement. We think these findings argue against the hypothesis of the sensory deficit being responsible for the trophic ulcers. We favor a major role for the sympathetic disturbances as the main cause for those lesions.

  11. Nutrients distribution and trophic status assessment in the northern Beibu Gulf, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Junxiang; Jiang, Fajun; Ke, Ke; Xu, Mingben; Lei, Fu; Chen, Bo

    2014-09-01

    Using historical and 2010 field data, the distribution of nutrients in the northern Beibu Gulf of China is described. There was a decreasing trend in the concentration of nutrients from the north coast to offshore waters of the northern Beibu Gulf, reflecting the influence of inputs from land-based sources. High concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphate (PO4-P) occurred mainly at Fangchenggang Bay, Qinzhou Bay, and Lianzhou Bay. Four different methods were used to assess eutrophication. The trophic status of the Beibu Gulf was characterized using the single factor, Eutrophication index (EI), Trophic index (TRIX) and Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS) methods. Based on nutrient concentrations, 73.9% of DIN and 26.7% of PO4-P samples exceeded the fourth grade Seawater Quality Standard of China. Eutrophication index values varied widely, but higher levels of eutrophication were generally found in bays and estuaries. TRIX values ranged from 2.61 to 7.27, with an average of 4.98, indicating a mesotrophic and moderately productive system. A positive correlation between TRIX and harmful algal species richness and abundance was observed. The ASSETS model evaluates eutrophication status based on a Pressure-State-Response approach, including three main indices: influencing factors, overall eutrophic condition, and future outlook. The Beibu Gulf was graded as moderate using ASSETS. The single factor and Chinese nutrient index methods were considered inadequate for the assessment of trophic status. TRIX can be used as an indicator of trophic state and ASSETS showed good potential to assess eutrophication. The results of TRIX and ASSETS depend on threshold values. To establish these values, further research is required within the northern Beibu Gulf.

  12. Proposal for a remote sensing trophic state index based upon Thematic Mapper/Landsat images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evlyn Márcia Leão de Moraes Novo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a trophic state index based on the remote sensing retrieval of chlorophyll-α concentration. For that, in situ Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF data acquired in the Ibitinga reservoir were resampled to match Landsat/TM spectral simulated bands (TM_sim bands and used to run linear correlation with concurrent measurements of chlorophyll-α concentration. Monte Carlo simulation was then applied to select the most suitable model relating chlorophyll-α concentration and simulated TM/Landsat reflectance. TM4_sim/TM3_sim ratio provided the best model with a R2 value of 0.78. The model was then inverted to create a look-up-table (LUT relating TM4_sim/TM3_sim ratio intervals to chlorophyll-α concentration trophic state classes covering the entire range measured in the reservoir. Atmospheric corrected Landsat TM images converted to surface reflectance were then used to generate a TM4/TM3 ratio image. The ratio image frequency distribution encompassed the range of TM4_sim/TM3_sim ratio indicating agreement between in situ and satellite data and supporting the use of satellite data to map chlorophyll- concentration trophic state distribution in the reservoir. Based on that, the LUT was applied to a Landsat/TM ratio image to map the spatial distribution of chlorophyll- trophic state classes in Ibitinga reservoir. Despite the stochastic selection of TM4_sim/TM3_sim ratio as the best input variable for modeling the chlorophyll-α concentration, it has a physical basis: high concentration of phytoplankton increases the reflectance in the near-infrared (TM4 and decreases the reflectance in the red (TM3. The band ratio, therefore, enhances the relationship between chlorophyll- concentration and remotely sensed reflectance.

  13. Climate Change and Baleen Whale Trophic Cascades in Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-30

    DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Climate Change and Baleen Whale Trophic Cascades in Greenland...SUBTITLE Climate Change And Baleen Whale Trophic Cascades In Greenland 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S

  14. Trophic state and toxic cyanobacteria density in optimization modeling of multi-reservoir water resource systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, Andrea; Buscarinu, Paola; Soru, Oriana; Sechi, Giovanni M

    2014-04-22

    The definition of a synthetic index for classifying the quality of water bodies is a key aspect in integrated planning and management of water resource systems. In previous works [1,2], a water system optimization modeling approach that requires a single quality index for stored water in reservoirs has been applied to a complex multi-reservoir system. Considering the same modeling field, this paper presents an improved quality index estimated both on the basis of the overall trophic state of the water body and on the basis of the density values of the most potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. The implementation of the index into the optimization model makes it possible to reproduce the conditions limiting water use due to excessive nutrient enrichment in the water body and to the health hazard linked to toxic blooms. The analysis of an extended limnological database (1996-2012) in four reservoirs of the Flumendosa-Campidano system (Sardinia, Italy) provides useful insights into the strengths and limitations of the proposed synthetic index.

  15. Trophic niche shifts driven by phytoplankton in sandy beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamino, Leandro; Martínez, Ana; Han, Eunah; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

    2016-10-01

    Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) together with chlorophyll a and densities of surf diatoms were used to analyze changes in trophic niches of species in two sandy beaches of Uruguay with contrasting morphodynamics (i.e. dissipative vs. reflective). Consumers and food sources were collected over four seasons, including sediment organic matter (SOM), suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and the surf zone diatom Asterionellopsis guyunusae. Circular statistics and a Bayesian isotope mixing model were used to quantify food web differences between beaches. Consumers changed their trophic niche between beaches in the same direction of the food web space towards higher reliance on surf diatoms in the dissipative beach. Mixing models indicated that A. guyunusae was the primary nutrition source for suspension feeders in the dissipative beach, explaining their change in dietary niche compared to the reflective beach where the proportional contribution of surf diatoms was low. The high C/N ratios in A. guyunusae indicated its high nutritional value and N content, and may help to explain the high assimilation by suspension feeders at the dissipative beach. Furthermore, density of A. guyunusae was higher in the dissipative than in the reflective beach, and cell density was positively correlated with chlorophyll a only in the dissipative beach. Therefore, surf diatoms are important drivers in the dynamics of sandy beach food webs, determining the trophic niche space and productivity. Our study provides valuable insights on shifting foraging behavior by beach fauna in response to changes in resource availability.

  16. Form and function of damselfish skulls: rapid and repeated evolution into a limited number of trophic niches

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, W James; Westneat, Mark W

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Damselfishes (Perciformes, Pomacentridae) are a major component of coral reef communities, and the functional diversity of their trophic anatomy is an important constituent of the ecological morphology of these systems. Using shape analyses, biomechanical modelling, and phylogenetically based comparative methods, we examined the anatomy of damselfish feeding among all genera and trophic groups. Coordinate based shape analyses of anatomical landmarks were used to describe p...

  17. Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

  18. Establishment and metabolic analysis of a model microbial community for understanding trophic and electron accepting interactions of subsurface anaerobic environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zamin K

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Communities of microorganisms control the rates of key biogeochemical cycles, and are important for biotechnology, bioremediation, and industrial microbiological processes. For this reason, we constructed a model microbial community comprised of three species dependent on trophic interactions. The three species microbial community was comprised of Clostridium cellulolyticum, Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough, and Geobacter sulfurreducens and was grown under continuous culture conditions. Cellobiose served as the carbon and energy source for C. cellulolyticum, whereas D. vulgaris and G. sulfurreducens derived carbon and energy from the metabolic products of cellobiose fermentation and were provided with sulfate and fumarate respectively as electron acceptors. Results qPCR monitoring of the culture revealed C. cellulolyticum to be dominant as expected and confirmed the presence of D. vulgaris and G. sulfurreducens. Proposed metabolic modeling of carbon and electron flow of the three-species community indicated that the growth of C. cellulolyticum and D. vulgaris were electron donor limited whereas G. sulfurreducens was electron acceptor limited. Conclusions The results demonstrate that C. cellulolyticum, D. vulgaris, and G. sulfurreducens can be grown in coculture in a continuous culture system in which D. vulgaris and G. sulfurreducens are dependent upon the metabolic byproducts of C. cellulolyticum for nutrients. This represents a step towards developing a tractable model ecosystem comprised of members representing the functional groups of a trophic network.

  19. Predicting what helminth parasites a fish species should have using Parasite Co-occurrence Modeler (PaCo)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strona, Giovanni; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2013-01-01

    Fish pathologists are often interested in which parasites would likely be present in a particular host. Parasite Co-occurrence Modeler (PaCo) is a tool for identifying a list of parasites known from fish species that are similar ecologically, phylogenetically, and geographically to the host of interest. PaCo uses data from FishBase (maximum length, growth rate, life span, age at maturity, trophic level, phylogeny, and biogeography) to estimate compatibility between a target host and parasite species–genera from the major helminth groups (Acanthocephala, Cestoda, Monogenea, Nematoda, and Trematoda). Users can include any combination of host attributes in a model. These unique features make PaCo an innovative tool for addressing both theoretical and applied questions in parasitology. In addition to predicting the occurrence of parasites, PaCo can be used to investigate how host characteristics shape parasite communities. To test the performance of the PaCo algorithm, we created 12,400 parasite lists by applying any possible combination of model parameters (248) to 50 fish hosts. We then measured the relative importance of each parameter by assessing their frequency in the best models for each host. Host phylogeny and host geography were identified as the most important factors, with both present in 88% of the best models. Habitat (64%) was identified in more than half of the best models. Among ecological parameters, trophic level (41%) was the most relevant while life span (34%), growth rate (32%), maximum length (28%), and age at maturity (20%) were less commonly linked to best models. PaCo is free to use at www.purl.oclc.org/fishpest.

  20. Seasonal Trophic Shift of Littoral Consumers in Eutrophic Lake Taihu (China Revealed by a Two-Source Mixing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the seasonal variation in the contributions of planktonic and benthic resources to 11 littoral predators in eutrophic Lake Taihu (China from 2004 to 2005. Seasonal fluctuations in consumer σ13C and σ15N were attributed to the combined impacts of temporal variation in isotopic signatures of basal resources and the diet shift of fishes. Based on a two-end-member mixing model, all target consumers relied on energy sources from coupled benthic and planktonic pathways, but the predominant energy source for most species was highly variable across seasons, showing seasonal trophic shift of littoral consumers. Seasonality in energy mobilization of consumers focused on two aspects: (1 the species number of consumers that relied mainly on planktonic carbon showed the lowest values in the fall and the highest during spring/summer, and (2 most consumer species showed seasonal variation in the percentages of planktonic reliance. We concluded that seasonal trophic shifts of fishes and invertebrates were driven by phytoplankton production, but benthic resources were also important seasonally in supporting littoral consumers in Meiliang Bay. Energy mobilization of carnivorous fishes was more subject to the impact of resource availability than omnivorous species.

  1. Meta-analysis of amino acid stable nitrogen isotope ratios for estimating trophic position in marine organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jens M; Popp, Brian N; Winder, Monika

    2015-07-01

    Estimating trophic structures is a common approach used to retrieve information regarding energy pathways, predation, and competition in complex ecosystems. The application of amino acid (AA) compound-specific nitrogen (N) isotope analysis (CSIA) is a relatively new method used to estimate trophic position (TP) and feeding relationships in diverse organisms. Here, we conducted the first meta-analysis of δ(15)N AA values from measurements of 359 marine species covering four trophic levels, and compared TP estimates from AA-CSIA to literature values derived from food items, gut or stomach content analysis. We tested whether the AA trophic enrichment factor (TEF), or the (15)N enrichment among different individual AAs is constant across trophic levels and whether inclusion of δ(15)N values from multiple AAs improves TP estimation. For the TEF of glutamic acid relative to phenylalanine (Phe) we found an average value of 6.6‰ across all taxa, which is significantly lower than the commonly applied 7.6‰. We found that organism feeding ecology influences TEF values of several trophic AAs relative to Phe, with significantly higher TEF values for herbivores compared to omnivores and carnivores, while TEF values were also significantly lower for animals excreting urea compared to ammonium. Based on the comparison of multiple model structures using the metadata of δ(15)N AA values we show that increasing the number of AAs in principle improves precision in TP estimation. This meta-analysis clarifies the advantages and limitations of using individual δ(15)N AA values as tools in trophic ecology and provides a guideline for the future application of AA-CSIA to food web studies.

  2. Looplessness in networks is linked to trophic coherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Jones, Nick S

    2017-05-30

    Many natural, complex systems are remarkably stable thanks to an absence of feedback acting on their elements. When described as networks these exhibit few or no cycles, and associated matrices have small leading eigenvalues. It has been suggested that this architecture can confer advantages to the system as a whole, such as "qualitative stability," but this observation does not in itself explain how a loopless structure might arise. We show here that the number of feedback loops in a network, as well as the eigenvalues of associated matrices, is determined by a structural property called trophic coherence, a measure of how neatly nodes fall into distinct levels. Our theory correctly classifies a variety of networks-including those derived from genes, metabolites, species, neurons, words, computers, and trading nations-into two distinct regimes of high and low feedback and provides a null model to gauge the significance of related magnitudes. Because trophic coherence suppresses feedback, whereas an absence of feedback alone does not lead to coherence, our work suggests that the reasons for "looplessness" in nature should be sought in coherence-inducing mechanisms.

  3. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E

    2010-07-12

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

  4. Changes in the trophic structure of the northern Benguela before ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dominant small pelagic fish, characteristic of upwelling systems, were replaced ... as did the weighted trophic level of the community (excluding plankton), after the ... may have altered the trophic control mechanism operating in the system, ...

  5. Spring diet and trophic partitioning in an alpine lizard community ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The influences of species interactions on habitat use, restrictions in trophic availability and evolutionary history as determinant factors are discussed. Keywords: trophic ecology, communities, pseudocommunity analysis, Lacerta perspicillata, Lacerta andreanszkyi, Podarcis vaucheri, Quedenfeldtia trachyblepharus, Morocco ...

  6. Echinocandin treatment of pneumocystis pneumonia in rodent models depletes cysts leaving trophic burdens that cannot transmit the infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie T Cushion

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Fungi in the genus Pneumocystis cause pneumonia (PCP in hosts with debilitated immune systems and are emerging as co-morbidity factors associated with chronic diseases such as COPD. Limited therapeutic choices and poor understanding of the life cycle are a result of the inability of these fungi to grow outside the mammalian lung. Within the alveolar lumen, Pneumocystis spp., appear to have a bi-phasic life cycle consisting of an asexual phase characterized by binary fission of trophic forms and a sexual cycle resulting in formation of cysts, but the life cycle stage that transmits the infection is not known. The cysts, but not the trophic forms, express beta -1,3-D-glucan synthetase and contain abundant beta -1,3-D-glucan. Here we show that therapeutic and prophylactic treatment of PCP with echinocandins, compounds which inhibit the synthesis of beta -1,3-D-glucan, depleted cysts in rodent models of PCP, while sparing the trophic forms which remained in significant numbers. Survival was enhanced in the echincandin treated mice, likely due to the decreased beta -1,3-D-glucan content in the lungs of treated mice and rats which coincided with reductions of cyst numbers, and dramatic remodeling of organism morphology. Strong evidence for the cyst as the agent of transmission was provided by the failure of anidulafungin-treated mice to transmit the infection. We show for the first time that withdrawal of anidulafungin treatment with continued immunosuppression permitted the repopulation of cyst forms. Treatment of PCP with an echinocandin alone will not likely result in eradication of infection and cessation of echinocandin treatment while the patient remains immunosuppressed could result in relapse. Importantly, the echinocandins provide novel and powerful chemical tools to probe the still poorly understood bi-phasic life cycle of this genus of fungal pathogens.

  7. Assessment, modelization and analysis of 106 Ru experimental transfers through a freshwater trophic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vray, F.

    1994-01-01

    Experiments are carried out in order to study 106 RU transfers through a freshwater ecosystem including 2 abiotic compartments (water and sediment) and 3 trophic levels (10 species). Experimental results are expressed mathematically so as they can be included into a global model which is then tested in two different situations. The comparison of the available data concerning the in situ measured concentrations to the corresponding calculated ones validates the whole procedure. Analysis of the so validated results lightens ruthenium distribution process in the environment. The rare detection of this radionuclide in organisms living in areas contaminated by known meaningful releases can be explained by a relativity high detection limit and by a slight role of the sediment as a secondary contamination source. (author). 78 figs., 18 tabs

  8. Species co-occurrence networks: Can they reveal trophic and non-trophic interactions in ecological communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freilich, Mara A; Wieters, Evie; Broitman, Bernardo R; Marquet, Pablo A; Navarrete, Sergio A

    2018-03-01

    Co-occurrence methods are increasingly utilized in ecology to infer networks of species interactions where detailed knowledge based on empirical studies is difficult to obtain. Their use is particularly common, but not restricted to, microbial networks constructed from metagenomic analyses. In this study, we test the efficacy of this procedure by comparing an inferred network constructed using spatially intensive co-occurrence data from the rocky intertidal zone in central Chile to a well-resolved, empirically based, species interaction network from the same region. We evaluated the overlap in the information provided by each network and the extent to which there is a bias for co-occurrence data to better detect known trophic or non-trophic, positive or negative interactions. We found a poor correspondence between the co-occurrence network and the known species interactions with overall sensitivity (probability of true link detection) equal to 0.469, and specificity (true non-interaction) equal to 0.527. The ability to detect interactions varied with interaction type. Positive non-trophic interactions such as commensalism and facilitation were detected at the highest rates. These results demonstrate that co-occurrence networks do not represent classical ecological networks in which interactions are defined by direct observations or experimental manipulations. Co-occurrence networks provide information about the joint spatial effects of environmental conditions, recruitment, and, to some extent, biotic interactions, and among the latter, they tend to better detect niche-expanding positive non-trophic interactions. Detection of links (sensitivity or specificity) was not higher for well-known intertidal keystone species than for the rest of consumers in the community. Thus, as observed in previous empirical and theoretical studies, patterns of interactions in co-occurrence networks must be interpreted with caution, especially when extending interaction

  9. Assessment of trophic ecomorphology in non-alligatoroid crocodylians and its adaptive and taxonomic implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iijima, Masaya

    2017-08-01

    Although the establishment of trophic ecomorphology in living crocodylians can contribute to estimating feeding habits of extinct large aquatic reptiles, assessment of ecomorphological traits other than the snout shape has scarcely been conducted in crocodylians. Here, I tested the validity of the proposed trophic ecomorphological traits in crocodylians by examining the correlation between those traits and the snout shape (an established trophic ecomorphology), using 10 non-alligatoroid crocodylian species with a wide range of snout shape. I then compared the ontogenetic scaling of trophic ecomorphology to discuss its adaptive and taxonomic significance. The results demonstrated that degree of heterodonty, tooth spacing, size of supratemporal fenestra (STF), ventral extension of pterygoid flange and length of lower jaw symphysis are significantly correlated with snout shape by both non-phylogenetic and phylogenetic regression analyses. Gavialis gangeticus falls outside of 95% prediction intervals for the relationships of some traits and the snout shape, suggesting that piscivorous specialization involves the deviation from the typical transformation axis of skull characters. The comparative snout shape ontogeny revealed a universal trend of snout widening through growth in the sampled crocodylians, implying the existence of a shared size-dependent biomechanical constraint in non-alligatoroid crocodylians. Growth patterns of other traits indicated that G. gangeticus shows atypical trends for degree of heterodonty, size of STF, and symphysis length, whereas the same trends are shared for tooth spacing and ventral extension of pterygoid flange among non-alligatoroid crocodylians. These suggest that some characters are ontogenetically labile in response to prey preference shifts through growth, but other characters are in keeping with the conserved biomechanics among non-alligatoroid crocodylians. Some important taxonomic characters such as the occlusal pattern are

  10. Fatty acid trophic markers and trophic links among seston, crustacean zooplankton and the siphonophore Nanomia cara in Georges Basin and Oceanographer Canyon (NW Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Rossi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Fatty acid concentrations expressed as percentages of total fatty acid pools in seston, stage V copepodites of Calanus finmarchicus, adults of the euphausiid Meganyctiphanes norvegica, and the physonect siphonophore Nanomia cara were used to elucidate trophic links in Georges Basin and Oceanographer Canyon in September 2003. Seston at both locations was refractory and comprised mainly of saturated fatty acids. Phytoplankton did not contribute significantly to the fatty acid composition of seston or higher trophic levels. Only four fatty acids, i.e. 14:0, 16:0, 16:1 (n–7 and 18:1 (n–7, were transferred from seston to C. finmarchicus or M. norvegica, which suggested weak trophic interactions. Fatty acids transferred from the two species of crustaceans to N. cara included the same four fatty acids, along with three polyunsaturated fatty acids found in relatively high concentrations in both crustaceans, i.e. 20:3 (n–6, 20:5 (n–3 and 22:6 (n–3. In addition, 18:1 (n–9, which occurred in relatively high concentrations only in M. norvegica, and 18:0 and 18:2 (n–6, which were found in low concentrations in both crustaceans, also appeared to be transferred to N. cara. Overall, fatty acid trophic markers proved useful for identifying trophic links to N. cara.

  11. Trophic mass-balance model of Alaska's Prince William Sound ecosystem, for the post-spill period 1994-1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okey, T.A.; Pauly, D.

    1998-01-01

    The Ecopath modelling approach for the Prince William Sound (PWS) ecosystem was described. The area is the site of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), the largest spill in U.S. history. 36,000 tonnes of crude oil spread throughout the central and southwestern PWS into the Gulf of Alaska and along the Kenai and Alaska Peninsula. The initial effects of the oil spill were catastrophic. The Ecopath modelling approach discussed in this report is aimed at providing a cohesive picture of the PWS ecosystem by constructing a mass-balanced model of food-web interactions and trophic flows using information collected since the EVOS. The model includes all biotic components of the ecosystem and provides a quantitative description of food-web interactions and relationships, as well as energy flows among components. The model can provide an understanding of how ecosystems respond to disturbances, such as oil spills. 216 refs., 74 tabs., 13 figs., 8 appendices

  12. Optimal harvesting of a stochastic delay tri-trophic food-chain model with Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hong; Deng, Wenmin

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, the optimal harvesting of a stochastic delay tri-trophic food-chain model with Lévy jumps is considered. We introduce two kinds of environmental perturbations in this model. One is called white noise which is continuous and is described by a stochastic integral with respect to the standard Brownian motion. And the other one is jumping noise which is modeled by a Lévy process. Under some mild assumptions, the critical values between extinction and persistent in the mean of each species are established. The sufficient and necessary criteria for the existence of optimal harvesting policy are established and the optimal harvesting effort and the maximum of sustainable yield are also obtained. We utilize the ergodic method to discuss the optimal harvesting problem. The results show that white noises and Lévy noises significantly affect the optimal harvesting policy while time delays is harmless for the optimal harvesting strategy in some cases. At last, some numerical examples are introduced to show the validity of our results.

  13. Trophic State and Toxic Cyanobacteria Density in Optimization Modeling of Multi-Reservoir Water Resource Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Sulis

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The definition of a synthetic index for classifying the quality of water bodies is a key aspect in integrated planning and management of water resource systems. In previous works [1,2], a water system optimization modeling approach that requires a single quality index for stored water in reservoirs has been applied to a complex multi-reservoir system. Considering the same modeling field, this paper presents an improved quality index estimated both on the basis of the overall trophic state of the water body and on the basis of the density values of the most potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. The implementation of the index into the optimization model makes it possible to reproduce the conditions limiting water use due to excessive nutrient enrichment in the water body and to the health hazard linked to toxic blooms. The analysis of an extended limnological database (1996–2012 in four reservoirs of the Flumendosa-Campidano system (Sardinia, Italy provides useful insights into the strengths and limitations of the proposed synthetic index.

  14. Study of a tri-trophic prey-dependent food chain model of interacting populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Mainul; Ali, Nijamuddin; Chakravarty, Santabrata

    2013-11-01

    The current paper accounts for the influence of intra-specific competition among predators in a prey dependent tri-trophic food chain model of interacting populations. We offer a detailed mathematical analysis of the proposed food chain model to illustrate some of the significant results that has arisen from the interplay of deterministic ecological phenomena and processes. Biologically feasible equilibria of the system are observed and the behaviours of the system around each of them are described. In particular, persistence, stability (local and global) and bifurcation (saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf-Andronov) analysis of this model are obtained. Relevant results from previous well known food chain models are compared with the current findings. Global stability analysis is also carried out by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations show that the present system is capable enough to produce chaotic dynamics when the rate of self-interaction is very low. On the other hand such chaotic behaviour disappears for a certain value of the rate of self interaction. In addition, numerical simulations with experimented parameters values confirm the analytical results and shows that intra-specific competitions bears a potential role in controlling the chaotic dynamics of the system; and thus the role of self interactions in food chain model is illustrated first time. Finally, a discussion of the ecological applications of the analytical and numerical findings concludes the paper. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. 210Po and 210Pb in a pelagic trophic chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radakovitch, O.; Strady, E.; Veron, A.; Chiffoleau, J.F.; Tronczynski, J.; Harmelin-Vivien, M.

    2013-01-01

    The ANR-COSTAS program studied the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic and inorganic contaminants through the trophic chains of two small pelagic fish, anchovy and sardine, on the continental shelf of the Gulf of Lion (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea). 210 Po and 210 Pb were analysed at various levels of this trophic chain, as well as trace metal elements, lead isotopes and C and N isotopes which provide additional information on both biogeochemical cycles and trophic transfer. To our knowledge, this is the first time that an entire trophic chain is analysed for these two radionuclides. Water, suspended particles, phytoplankton and zooplankton were collected at 7 stations during two contrast seasons. Phyto and zooplankton were separated in 6 classes through size-sieving: 6-60 μm; 60-200; 200-500; 500-1000; 1000-2000 and > 2000 μm. Anchovy and sardine were collected also two times and analyses were performed on muscle and liver independently for both sexes

  16. Exploring the Use of Multimedia Fate and Bioaccumulation Models to Calculate Trophic Magnification Factors (TMFs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The trophic magnification factor (TMF) is considered to be a key metric for assessing the bioaccumulation potential of organic chemicals in food webs. Fugacity is an equilibrium criterion and thus reflects the relative thermodynamic status of a chemical in the environment and in ...

  17. Models of Plankton Community Changes during a Warm Water Anomaly in Arctic Waters Show Altered Trophic Pathways with Minimal Changes in Carbon Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Vernet

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon flow through pelagic food webs is an expression of the composition, biomass and activity of phytoplankton as primary producers. In the near future, severe environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean are expected to lead to modifications of phytoplankton communities. Here, we used a combination of linear inverse modeling and ecological network analysis to study changes in food webs before, during, and after an anomalous warm water event in the eastern Fram Strait of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC that resulted in a shift from diatoms to flagellates during the summer (June–July. The model predicts substantial differences in the pathways of carbon flow in diatom- vs. Phaeocystis/nanoflagellate-dominated phytoplankton communities, but relatively small differences in carbon export. The model suggests a change in the zooplankton community and activity through increasing microzooplankton abundance and the switching of meso- and macrozooplankton feeding from strict herbivory to omnivory, detritivory and coprophagy. When small cells and flagellates dominated, the phytoplankton carbon pathway through the food web was longer and the microbial loop more active. Furthermore, one step was added in the flow from phytoplankton to mesozooplankton, and phytoplankton carbon to higher trophic levels is available via detritus or microzooplankton. Model results highlight how specific changes in phytoplankton community composition, as expected in a climate change scenario, do not necessarily lead to a reduction in carbon export.

  18. Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life

    KAUST Repository

    Godø , Olav R.; Samuelsen, Annette; Macaulay, Gavin J.; Patel, Ruben; Hjø llo, Solfrid Sæ tre; Horne, John; Kaartvedt, Stein; Johannessen, Johnny A.

    2012-01-01

    Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life. 2012 God et al.

  19. Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life

    KAUST Repository

    Godø, Olav R.

    2012-01-17

    Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life. 2012 God et al.

  20. Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav R Godø

    Full Text Available Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life.

  1. Testing the generality of a trophic-cascade model for plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collinge, S.K.; Johnson, W.C.; Ray, C.; Matchett, R.; Grensten, J.; Cully, J.F.; Gage, K.L.; Kosoy, M.Y.; Loye, J.E.; Martin, A.P.

    2005-01-01

    Climate may affect the dynamics of infectious diseases by shifting pathogen, vector, or host species abundance, population dynamics, or community interactions. Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are highly susceptible to plague, yet little is known about factors that influence the dynamics of plague epizootics in prairie dogs. We investigated temporal patterns of plague occurrence in black-tailed prairie dogs to assess the generality of links between climate and plague occurrence found in previous analyses of human plague cases. We examined long-term data on climate and plague occurrence in prairie dog colonies within two study areas. Multiple regression analyses revealed that plague occurrence in prairie dogs was not associated with climatic variables in our Colorado study area. In contrast, plague occurrence was strongly associated with climatic variables in our Montana study area. The models with most support included a positive association with precipitation in April-July of the previous year, in addition to a positive association with the number of "warm" days and a negative association with the number of "hot" days in the same year as reported plague events. We conclude that the timing and magnitude of precipitation and temperature may affect plague occurrence in some geographic areas. The best climatic predictors of plague occurrence in prairie dogs within our Montana study area are quite similar to the best climatic predictors of human plague cases in the southwestern United States. This correspondence across regions and species suggests support for a (temperature-modulated) trophic-cascade model for plague, including climatic effects on rodent abundance, flea abundance, and pathogen transmission, at least in regions that experience strong climatic signals. ?? 2005 EcoHealth Journal Consortium.

  2. Trophic roles of scavenger beetles in relation to decomposition stages and seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noelia I. Zanetti

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Carcasses represent a trophic and reproductive resource or shelter for arthropods, which are a representative component of the decomposition process. Four experiments, one per season, were conducted in a semi-rural area of Bahía Blanca, Argentina, to study the trophic roles of cadaveric beetles, evaluating the abundance, composition and dominance during all decomposition stages and seasons. Species of necrophagous, necrophilous and omnivorous habits were found. Abundance, composition and dominance of beetles in relation to their trophic roles changed according to seasons and decomposition stages. Guilds and patterns of succession were established in relation to those periods. Trophic roles could be an indicator of beetle associations with decomposition stages and seasons.

  3. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  4. Aspects of the trophic ecology of Liza falcipinnis (Valenciennes 1836)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aspects of the trophic ecology of Liza falcipinnis (Valenciennes) were studied in the Cross River Estuary (CRE) east of the Niger Delta (Nigeria). The trophic spectrum showed that L. falcipinnis fed on a wide variety of food resources. From the index of relative importance (IRI), L. falcipinnis fed primarily on diatoms, FPOM, ...

  5. Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    1 AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0433 TITLE: Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Anis...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Disruption of Trophic Inhibitory Signaling in Autism Sepctrum Disorders 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-14-1-0433 5c. PROGRAM...chloride co-transporters that control EGABA could be used as a corrective strategy for the synaptic and circuit disruptions demonstrated in the

  6. Feeding habits and trophic levels of some demersal fish species in the Persian Gulf (Bushehr Province) using Ecopath model

    OpenAIRE

    Vahabnezhad, Arezoo

    2015-01-01

    A trophic study was carried out in February of 2012 to January 2013 on the ecosystem in the Persian Gulf, Bushehr provience. A total of 2,948 samples of stomach contents were analyzed based on the weight and number of food items and were identified about 40 preys. Crustacean and bony fish were as a main prey in most of the stomach contents . The mean average trophic level was estimated at 3.6 by Ecopath software. In this research, the mean level were studied between eight species varied fr...

  7. Use of Stable Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes for Trophic Level Evaluation and Food Webs Reconstruction in the Bay of Biscay : Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chouvelon, T.; Caurant, F.; Mendez Fernandez, P.; Bustamante, P. [Littoral Environnement et Societes, La Rochelle (France); Spitz, J. [Centre de Recherche sur les Mammiferes Marins, La Rochelle (France)

    2013-07-15

    Assessing species' trophic level is one key aspect of ecosystem models, providing an indicator to monitor trophic links and ecosystem changes. The stable isotope ratios (SIR) of carbon and nitrogen provide longer term information on the average diet of consumers than the traditional stomach content method. However, using SIR in predators implies a good knowledge of the factors influencing prey species signature and lower trophic levels themselves, such as spatial and temporal variations. In this study, 129 species belonging to several taxa (i.e. crustaceans, molluscs, fish, marine mammals) from the Bay of Biscay where analysed for their isotopic signatures. Results confirmed the existence of several trophic food webs with probable different baseline signatures in this area, an essential consideration when using the isotopic tool for calculating species trophic level and potential evolution in space and time. Results demonstrated a spatial gradient from the shoreline to the oceanic domain for both carbon and nitrogen. (author)

  8. Trophic structure of macroinvertebrates in tropical pasture streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruna Neves da Silveira-Manzotti

    Full Text Available Abstract: Aim The aim of this study was to describe the diet of stream macroinvertebrates and to determine their trophic groups. Methods Invertebrates were sampled with D nets in three pasture streams. They were identified to genus level and submitted to gut content analysis, except for fluid feeders such as hemipterans, to which diet data was obtained from the literature. Trophic groups were determined based on a similarity analysis using the Bray-Curtis similarity coefficient. Results Five trophic groups were defined: fine-detritivores (feed mostly on fine particulate organic matter - FPOM, coarse-detritivores/herbivores (feed mostly on coarse particulate organic matter - CPOM - and plant material, omnivores, specialist-predators (prey upon aquatic insects only, and generalist-predators. Ephemeroptera, Diptera (except Tanypodinae, Coleoptera, and Trichoptera (except Smicridea were detritivores. The caddis Macronema (Trichoptera fed exclusively on plant detritus and Tanypodinae and Smicridea were classified as omnivores. The odonate families Calopterygidae and Gomphidae were classified as specialist-predators, while Macrobrachium (Decapoda, Belostoma, and Limnocoris (Hemiptera were generalist-predators. Conclusions The great quantity and frequency of occurrence of FPOM consumed by most taxa highlight the importance of this food resource for macroinvertebrate communities from tropical streams. Furthermore, observed variations on trophic group assignment for some taxa indicate the generalist and opportunistic nature of these aquatic invertebrates. Such findings reinforce the importance of conducting gut content analysis on macroinvertebrates to understand their role in the structure and functioning of tropical streams.

  9. Indirect effects and traditional trophic cascades: a test involving wolves, coyotes, and pronghorn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Kim Murray; Gese, Eric M; Berger, Joel

    2008-03-01

    The traditional trophic cascades model is based on consumer resource interactions at each link in a food chain. However, trophic-level interactions, such as mesocarnivore release resulting from intraguild predation, may also be important mediators of cascades. From September 2001 to August 2004, we used spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus), accounts for high rates of coyote predation on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) fawns observed in some areas. Results of this ecological perturbation in wolf densities, coyote densities, and pronghorn neonatal survival at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites support the existence of a species-level trophic cascade. That wolves precipitated a trophic cascade was evidenced by fawn survival rates that were four-fold higher at sites used by wolves. A negative correlation between coyote and wolf densities supports the hypothesis that interspecific interactions between the two species facilitated the difference in fawn survival. Whereas densities of resident coyotes were similar between wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites, the abundance of transient coyotes was significantly lower in areas used by wolves. Thus, differential effects of wolves on solitary coyotes may be an important mechanism by which wolves limit coyote densities. Our results support the hypothesis that mesopredator release of coyotes contributes to high rates of coyote predation on pronghorn fawns, and demonstrate the importance of alternative food web pathways in structuring the dynamics of terrestrial systems.

  10. A Trophic Flow Model of the Caeté Mangrove Estuary (North Brazil) with Considerations for the Sustainable Use of its Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, M.; Koch, V.; Isaac, V.

    2000-06-01

    The Caeté Estuary lies within the world's second largest mangrove region, 200 km south-east of the Amazon delta. It has an extension of about 220 km2and is subjected to a considerable human impact through intensive harvest of mangrove crabs (Ucides cordatus) and logging of mangroves. In order to integrate available information on biomass, catches, food spectrum and dynamics of the main species populations of the system, a trophic steady state model of 19 compartments was constructed using the ECOPATH II software (Christensen & Pauly, 1992). Ninety-nine percent of total system biomass is made up by mangroves (Rhizophora mangle, Avicennia germinans andLaguncularia racemosa), which are assumed to cover about 45% of the total area and contribute about 60% to the system's primary production. The remaining biomass (132 g m-2) is distributed between the pelagic and benthic domains in proportions of 10% and 90% respectively. Through litter fall, mangroves inject the main primary food source into the system, which is either consumed directly by herbivores (principally land crabs, Ucides cordatus) or, when already metabolized by bacteria, by detritivors (principally fiddler crabs, Uca spp.). These two groups are prominent in terms of biomass (80 g and 14·5 g m-2), and food intake (1120 g m-2 yr-1and 1378 g m-2 yr-1respectively). According to the model estimates, energy flow through the fish and shrimp compartments is of relatively low importance for the energy cycling within the system, a finding which is contrary to the situation in other mangrove estuaries reported in the literature. The dominance of mangrove epibenthos is attributed to the fact that a large part of the system's production remains within the mangrove forest as material export to the estuary is restricted to spring tides, when the forest is completely indundated. This is also the reason for the low abundance of suspension feeders, which are restricted to a small belt along the Caeté River and the small

  11. Trigeminal trophic syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parimalam Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Trigeminal trophic syndrome (TTS is a rare cause of facial ulceration, consequent to damage to the trigeminal nerve or its central sensory connections. We reporta case of TTS in a 48-year-old woman with Bell′s palsy following herpes zoster infection. The patient was treated and counseled. There hasnot been any recurrence for 1 year and the patient is being followed-up. The diagnosis of TTS should be suspected when there is unilateral facial ulceration, especially involving the ala nasi associated with sensory impairment.

  12. Trophic cascades of bottom-up and top-down forcing on nutrients and plankton in the Kattegat, evaluated by modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Marcell Elo; Maar, Marie; Larsen, Janus

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing on trophic cascades in the pelagic food-web and the implications for water quality indicators (summer phytoplankton biomass and winter nutrients) in relation to management. The 3D ecological model....... On annual basis, the system was more bottom-up than top-down controlled. Microzooplankton was found to play an important role in the pelagic food web as mediator of nutrient and energy fluxes. This study demonstrated that the best scenario for improved water quality was a combined reduction in nutrient...

  13. Measuring variability in trophic status in the Lake Waco/Bosque River Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodriguez Angela D

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Nutrient management in rivers and streams is difficult due to the spatial and temporal variability of algal growth responses. The objectives of this project were to determine the spatial and seasonal in situ variability of trophic status in the Lake Waco/Bosque River watershed, determine the variability in the lotic ecosystem trophic status index (LETSI at each site as indicators of the system's nutrient sensitivity, and determine if passive diffusion periphytometers could provide threshold algal responses to nutrient enrichment. Methods We used the passive diffusion periphytometer to measure in-situ nutrient limitation and trophic status at eight sites in five streams in the Lake Waco/Bosque River Watershed in north-central Texas from July 1997 through October 1998. The chlorophyll a production in the periphytometers was used as an indicator of baseline chlorophyll a productivity and of maximum primary productivity (MPP in response to nutrient enrichment (nitrogen and phosphorus. We evaluated the lotic ecosystem trophic status index (LETSI using the ratio of baseline primary productivity to MPP, and evaluated the trophic class of each site. Results The rivers and streams in the Lake Waco/Bosque River Watershed exhibited varying degrees of nutrient enrichment over the 18-month sampling period. The North Bosque River at the headwaters (NB-02 located below the Stephenville, Texas wastewater treatment outfall consistently exhibited the highest degree of water quality impact due to nutrient enrichment. Sites at the outlet of the watershed (NB-04 and NB-05 were the next most enriched sites. Trophic class varied for enriched sites over seasons. Conclusion Seasonality played a significant role in the trophic class and sensitivity of each site to nutrients. Managing rivers and streams for nutrients will require methods for measuring in situ responses and sensitivities to nutrient enrichment. Nutrient enrichment periphytometers show

  14. Dynamic modeling predicts continued bioaccumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomiu) post phase-out due to invasive prey and shifts in predation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, Joshua S.; Blersch, David M.

    2015-01-01

    Unprecedented food chain links between benthic and pelagic organisms are often thought to disrupt traditional contaminant transport and uptake due to changes in predation and mobilization of otherwise sequestered pollutants. A bioaccumulation model for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) is developed to simulate increases in biotic congener loads based upon trophic transfer through diet and gill uptake for a Lake Erie food chain including two invasive species as a benthic-pelagic link. The model utilizes species-specific bioenergetic parameters in a four-level food chain including the green alga Scenedesmus quadricauda, zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), round goby (Appollonia melanostoma), and the smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomiu). The model was calibrated to current biotic concentrations and predicts an increase in contaminant load by almost 48% in the upper trophic level in two years. Validation to archival data resulted in <2% error from reported values following a two-year simulation. - Highlights: • A dynamic model assesses continued bioaccumulation of PBDEs in predators of invasive prey. • The model incorporates novel benthic-pelagic energy links due to invasive prey. • Increases in total PBDEs in smallmouth bass due to invasive energy pathways are simulated. • The model is validated to archival data obtained prior to invasion of zebra mussels and round goby. - A dynamic model is developed to simulate continued bioaccumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in smallmouth bass due to emerging benthic-pelagic energy pathways.

  15. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  16. Incorporating anthropogenic effects into trophic ecology: predator–prey interactions in a human-dominated landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorresteijn, Ine; Schultner, Jannik; Nimmo, Dale G.; Fischer, Joern; Hanspach, Jan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Kehoe, Laura; Ritchie, Euan G.

    2015-01-01

    Apex predators perform important functions that regulate ecosystems worldwide. However, little is known about how ecosystem regulation by predators is influenced by human activities. In particular, how important are top-down effects of predators relative to direct and indirect human-mediated bottom-up and top-down processes? Combining data on species' occurrence from camera traps and hunting records, we aimed to quantify the relative effects of top-down and bottom-up processes in shaping predator and prey distributions in a human-dominated landscape in Transylvania, Romania. By global standards this system is diverse, including apex predators (brown bear and wolf), mesopredators (red fox) and large herbivores (roe and red deer). Humans and free-ranging dogs represent additional predators in the system. Using structural equation modelling, we found that apex predators suppress lower trophic levels, especially herbivores. However, direct and indirect top-down effects of humans affected the ecosystem more strongly, influencing species at all trophic levels. Our study highlights the need to explicitly embed humans and their influences within trophic cascade theory. This will greatly expand our understanding of species interactions in human-modified landscapes, which compose the majority of the Earth's terrestrial surface. PMID:26336169

  17. Mercury cycling in stream ecosystems. 3. Trophic dynamics and methylmercury bioaccumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasar, L.C.; Scudder, B.C.; Stewart, A.R.; Bell, A.H.; Aiken, G.R.

    2009-01-01

    Trophic dynamics (community composition and feeding relationships) have been identified as important drivers of methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in lakes, reservoirs, and marine ecosystems. The relative importance of trophic dynamics and geochemical controls on MeHg bioaccumulation in streams, however, remains poorly characterized. MeHg bioaccumulation was evaluated in eight stream ecosystems across the United States (Oregon, Wisconsin, and Florida) spanning large ranges in climate, landscape characteristics, atmospheric Hg deposition, and stream chemistry. Across all geographic regions and all streams, concentrations of total Hg (THg) in top predator fish and forage fish, and MeHg in invertebrates, were strongly positively correlated to concentrations of filtered THg (FTHg), filtered MeHg (FMeHg), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC); to DOC complexity (as measured by specific ultraviolet absorbance); and to percent wetland in the stream basins. Correlations were strongest for nonurban streams. Although regressions of log[Hg] versus ??15N indicate that Hg in biota increased significantly with increasing trophic position within seven of eight individual streams, Hg concentrations in top predator fish (including cutthroat, rainbow, and brown trout; green sunfish; and largemouth bass) were not strongly influenced by differences in relative trophic position. Slopes of log[Hg] versus ??15N, an indicator of the efficiency of trophic enrichment, ranged from 0.14 to 0.27 for all streams. These data suggest that, across the large ranges in FTHg (0.14-14.2 ng L-1), FMeHg (0.023-1.03 ng L-1), and DOC (0.50-61.0 mg L-1) found in this study, Hg contamination in top predator fish in streams likely is dominated by the amount of MeHg available for uptake at the base of the food web rather than by differences in the trophic position of top predator fish. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

  18. Distributions and natural levels of related metals in a trophic pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemons, J.D.

    1976-06-01

    The first objective was to test the hypothesis that metal distributions and trends in organisms are, in part, a function of metal positions in the periodic table in unpolluted ecosystems. The data have shown that large soil crustal abundance differences of related elements (e.g. alkali metals) are proportionately approximated in higher organisms. Concentration factors for related nutritious and nonessential and toxic metals were determined along a trophic pathway. When the concentration factors were reported as the concentration of a particular metal by itself, all metal concentrations increased along the trophic pathway. The second objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that distributions and natural levels of chemically related nonessential and toxic metals can better be known when the metals are reported as a ratio, in ash, of the nonessential or toxic metal to its chemically related nutritious metal (e.g. strontium/calcium) as the metals are transferred through trophic pathways. The data have shown that when this method of reporting metal abundances in trophic levels is used, nonessential and toxic metals are discriminated against, relative to their chemically related nutritious metal, as the metals are transferred through the trophic pathway levels. The third objective was designed to test the hypothesis that surface deposition of toxic metals upon plants influences the trends of metal abundances through trophic pathways. This study indicates that metal pollution in the form of deposition upon plant surfaces bypasses the discrimination mechanisms in plants, and consequently elevates the total body burden in herbivores. It is likely that there is no herbivore defense for this type of metal exposure, because herbivores have probably come to rely, in part, upon the discriminatory mechanism of plants throughout the course of evolutionary history to keep toxic metal burdens low

  19. Existence of limit cycles in a three level trophic chain with Lotka–Volterra and Holling type II functional responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellanos, Víctor; Chan-López, Ramón E.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a three level trophic chain model, considering a logistic growth for the lowest trophic level, a Lotka–Volterra and Holling type II functional responses for predators in the middle and in the cusp in the chain, respectively. The differential system is based on the Leslie–Gower scheme. We establish conditions on the parameters that guarantee the coexistence of populations in the habitat. We find that an Andronov–Hopf bifurcation takes place. The first Lyapunov coefficient is computed explicitly and we show the existence of a stable limit cycle. Numerically, we observe a strange attractor and there exist evidence of the model to exhibit chaotic dynamics.

  20. Model description of trophodynamic behavior of methylmercury in a marine aquatic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Yindong; Zhang Wei; Hu Xindi; Ou Langbo; Hu Dan; Yang Tianjun; Wei Wen; Wang Xuejun

    2012-01-01

    A marine food web in Bohai Bay, China, was selected to study methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation, and an aquivalence-based mass balance model was established to explore the possibility of predicting the MeHg concentrations and quantifying MeHg bioaccumulation in the food web. Results showed that both total mercury (THg) and MeHg were biomagnified in the food web. The calculated MeHg concentrations in the selected species agreed well with the measured values, which shows the model could be a useful tool in MeHg concentration prediction in food web. Model outputs also showed that metabolism and growth dilution could be the dominant mechanisms for the reduction of MeHg levels in aquatic organisms. With the increase of trophic level, the contribution of food as a MeHg source for organism is increasing, and MeHg from prey was the dominant source. - Highlights: ► We model the bioaccumulation of methylmercury in a marine aquatic food web. ► Aquivalence-based mass balance model could quantify MeHg trophic transfer. ► Metabolism and growth dilution are dominant mechanisms of MeHg reduction in organisms. ► With increase of trophic levels, contribution of food as MeHg source is increasing. - Aquivalence-based mass balance model was established to study methylmercury bioaccumulation in a marine food web.

  1. Fish communities and trophic metrics as measures of ecological degradation: a case study in the tributaries of the river Ganga basin, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Vineet Kumar; Sarkar, Uttam Kumar; Pandey, Ajay; Lakra, Wazir Singh

    2013-09-01

    In India, freshwater aquatic resources are suffering from increasing human population, urbanization and shortage of all kind of natural resources like water. To mitigate this, all the major rivers have been planned for a river-interlinking through an interlinking canal system under a huge scheme; yet, the baseline information on ecological conditions of those tropical rivers and their fish communities is lacking at present. In view of that, the present study was undertaken to assess the ecological condition by comparing the trophic metrics of the fish community, conservation status and water chemistry of the two tropical rivers of the Ganga basin, from October 2007 to November 2009. The analysis of trophic niches of the available fish species indicated dominancy of carnivorous (19 species) in river Ken and omnivorous (23 species) in Betwa. The trophic level score of carnivorous species was recorded similar (33.33%) in both rivers, whereas omnivorous species were mostly found in Betwa (36.51%) than Ken (28.07%). Relatively undisturbed sites of Betwa (B1, B2 and B3) and Ken (K2, K3 and K5) were characterized by diverse fish fauna and high richness of threatened species. The higher mean trophic level scores were recorded at B4 of Betwa and K4 of Ken. The Bray-Curtis index for trophic level identified the carnivorous species (> 0.32) as an indicator species for pollution. Anthropogenic exposure, reflected in water quality as well as in fish community structure, was found higher especially in the lower stretches of both rivers. Our results suggest the importance of trophic metrics on fish community, for ecological conditions evaluation, which enables predictions on the effect of future morphodynamic changes (in the post-interlinking phases), and provide a framework and reference condition to support restoration efforts of relatively altered fish habitats in tropical rivers of India.

  2. Fish communities and trophic metrics as measures of ecological degradation: a case study in the tributaries of the river Ganga basin, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineet Kumar Dubey

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In India, freshwater aquatic resources are suffering from increasing human population, urbanization and shortage of all kind of natural resources like water. To mitigate this, all the major rivers have been planned for a river-interlinking through an interlinking canal system under a huge scheme; yet, the baseline information on ecological conditions of those tropical rivers and their fish communities is lacking at present. In view of that, the present study was undertaken to assess the ecological condition by comparing the trophic metrics of the fish community, conservation status and water chemistry of the two tropical rivers of the Ganga basin, from October 2007 to November 2009. The analysis of trophic niches of the available fish species indicated dominancy of carnivorous (19 species in river Ken and omnivorous (23 species in Betwa. The trophic level score of carnivorous species was recorded similar (33.33% in both rivers, whereas omnivorous species were mostly found in Betwa (36.51% than Ken (28.07%. Relatively undisturbed sites of Betwa (B1, B2 and B3 and Ken (K2, K3 and K5 were characterized by diverse fish fauna and high richness of threatened species. The higher mean trophic level scores were recorded at B4 of Betwa and K4 of Ken. The Bray-Curtis index for trophic level identified the carnivorous species (>0.32 as an indicator species for pollution. Anthropogenic exposure, reflected in water quality as well as in fish community structure, was found higher especially in the lower stretches of both rivers. Our results suggest the importance of trophic metrics on fish community, for ecological conditions evaluation, which enables predictions on the effect of future morphodynamic changes (in the post-interlinking phases, and provide a framework and reference condition to support restoration efforts of relatively altered fish habitats in tropical rivers of India.

  3. Echinoderms display morphological and behavioural phenotypic plasticity in response to their trophic environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam D Hughes

    Full Text Available The trophic interactions of sea urchins are known to be the agents of phase shifts in benthic marine habitats such as tropical and temperate reefs. In temperate reefs, the grazing activity of sea urchins has been responsible for the destruction of kelp forests and the formation of 'urchin barrens', a rocky habitat dominated by crustose algae and encrusting invertebrates. Once formed, these urchin barrens can persist for decades. Trophic plasticity in the sea urchin may contribute to the stability and resilience of this alternate stable state by increasing diet breadth in sea urchins. This plasticity promotes ecological connectivity and weakens species interactions and so increases ecosystem stability. We test the hypothesis that sea urchins exhibit trophic plasticity using an approach that controls for other typically confounding environmental and genetic factors. To do this, we exposed a genetically homogenous population of sea urchins to two very different trophic environments over a period of two years. The sea urchins exhibited a wide degree of phenotypic trophic plasticity when exposed to contrasting trophic environments. The two populations developed differences in their gross morphology and the test microstructure. In addition, when challenged with unfamiliar prey, the response of each group was different. We show that sea urchins exhibit significant morphological and behavioural phenotypic plasticity independent of their environment or their nutritional status.

  4. Meta-analysis review of fish trophic level at marine protected areas based on stable isotopes data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. de LOPE ARIAS

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Stable isotopes (δ15N are used to determine trophic level in marine food webs. We assessed if Marine Protected Areas (MPAs affect trophic level of fishes based on stable isotopes on the Western Mediterranean. A total of 22 studies including 600 observations were found and the final dataset consisted of 11 fish species and 146 observations comparing trophic level inside and outside MPAs. The database was analysed by meta-analysis and the covariate selected was the level of protection (inside vs. outside MPAs. The results indicate significant difference between trophic levels inside and outside MPAs. However, results differ from expectations since the trophic level inside was lower than outside MPAs. Three habitats were analysed (coastal lagoons, demersal and littoral and significant differences were found among them. Trophic level was higher in demersal habitats than in coastal lagoons and littoral areas. No significant differences were found in species classified by trophic functional groups. We consider several hypotheses explaining the obtained results linked to protection level of the MPAs, time since protection and MPAs size. We debate the suitability of using the stable isotope (δ15N as direct indicator of trophic level in evaluating MPAs effects on food webs.

  5. Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of mercury in African lakes: The importance of trophic status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poste, Amanda E., E-mail: amanda.poste@niva.no [Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo (Norway); Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 (Canada); Muir, Derek C.G. [Aquatic Contaminants Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Drive, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6 (Canada); Guildford, Stephanie J.; Hecky, Robert E. [Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 (Canada); Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth, 2205 East Fifth Street, Duluth, MN 55812 (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Despite the global prevalence of both mercury (Hg) contamination and anthropogenic eutrophication, relatively little is known about the behavior of Hg in eutrophic and hypereutrophic systems or the effects of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and trophodynamics. In the current study we explore Hg trophodynamics at 8 tropical East African study sites ranging from mesotrophic to hypereutrophic, in order to assess the influence of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and biomagnification. Comprehensive water, plankton and fish samples were collected for analysis of total mercury (THg) and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios. We found evidence that uptake of THg into phytoplankton tended to be lower in higher productivity systems. THg concentrations in fish were generally low, and THg trophic magnification factors (TMFs; representing the average increase in contaminant concentrations from one trophic level to the next) ranged from 1.9 to 5.6. Furthermore TMFs were significantly lower in hypereutrophic lakes than in meso- and eutrophic lakes, and were negatively related to chlorophyll a concentrations both across our study lakes, and across African lakes for which literature data were available. These observations suggest that THg concentrations were strongly influenced by trophic status, with year-round high phytoplankton and fish growth rates reducing the potential for high THg in fish in these productive tropical lakes. - Highlights: • We characterized Hg in water and biota from 8 East African study sites. • Hg concentrations in fish were low and should not pose a risk to human consumers. • Hg uptake and biomagnification rates were negatively related to trophic status. • Growth dilution in phytoplankton and consumer trophic levels led to low fish Hg.

  6. Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of mercury in African lakes: The importance of trophic status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poste, Amanda E.; Muir, Derek C.G.; Guildford, Stephanie J.; Hecky, Robert E.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the global prevalence of both mercury (Hg) contamination and anthropogenic eutrophication, relatively little is known about the behavior of Hg in eutrophic and hypereutrophic systems or the effects of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and trophodynamics. In the current study we explore Hg trophodynamics at 8 tropical East African study sites ranging from mesotrophic to hypereutrophic, in order to assess the influence of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and biomagnification. Comprehensive water, plankton and fish samples were collected for analysis of total mercury (THg) and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios. We found evidence that uptake of THg into phytoplankton tended to be lower in higher productivity systems. THg concentrations in fish were generally low, and THg trophic magnification factors (TMFs; representing the average increase in contaminant concentrations from one trophic level to the next) ranged from 1.9 to 5.6. Furthermore TMFs were significantly lower in hypereutrophic lakes than in meso- and eutrophic lakes, and were negatively related to chlorophyll a concentrations both across our study lakes, and across African lakes for which literature data were available. These observations suggest that THg concentrations were strongly influenced by trophic status, with year-round high phytoplankton and fish growth rates reducing the potential for high THg in fish in these productive tropical lakes. - Highlights: • We characterized Hg in water and biota from 8 East African study sites. • Hg concentrations in fish were low and should not pose a risk to human consumers. • Hg uptake and biomagnification rates were negatively related to trophic status. • Growth dilution in phytoplankton and consumer trophic levels led to low fish Hg

  7. Trophic specialization influences the rate of environmental niche evolution in damselfishes (Pomacentridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litsios, Glenn; Pellissier, Loïc; Forest, Félix; Lexer, Christian; Pearman, Peter B; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Salamin, Nicolas

    2012-09-22

    The rate of environmental niche evolution describes the capability of species to explore the available environmental space and is known to vary among species owing to lineage-specific factors. Trophic specialization is a main force driving species evolution and is responsible for classical examples of adaptive radiations in fishes. We investigate the effect of trophic specialization on the rate of environmental niche evolution in the damselfish, Pomacentridae, which is an important family of tropical reef fishes. First, phylogenetic niche conservatism is not detected in the family using a standard test of phylogenetic signal, and we demonstrate that the environmental niches of damselfishes that differ in trophic specialization are not equivalent while they still overlap at their mean values. Second, we estimate the relative rates of niche evolution on the phylogenetic tree and show the heterogeneity among rates of environmental niche evolution of the three trophic groups. We suggest that behavioural characteristics related to trophic specialization can constrain the evolution of the environmental niche and lead to conserved niches in specialist lineages. Our results show the extent of influence of several traits on the evolution of the environmental niche and shed new light on the evolution of damselfishes, which is a key lineage in current efforts to conserve biodiversity in coral reefs.

  8. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  9. Diet and trophic groups of an aquatic insect community in a tropical stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Motta

    Full Text Available The diet and trophic groups of an assemblage of aquatic insects were studied in a tropical stream. Genera of the orders Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, Lepidoptera, and Hemiptera showed feeding specialization. Others, such as Trichoptera, Coleoptera, and Diptera, showed great diet variation with genera of different trophic groups. Seasonal variation of insect diet, evident only for some genera of the orders Trichoptera, Lepidoptera, Coleoptera, and Diptera, was due to the differences observed in community composition and to generalist habits of these genera. However, the seasonal comparison of trophic groups showed no significant statistical differences. The great importance of organic matter, a non-limited resource, in the diet of Ribeirão do Atalho aquatic insects may be the explanation for the trophic stability in this community organization.

  10. Invasive plant architecture alters trophic interactions by changing predator abundance and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean E. Pearson

    2009-01-01

    As primary producers, plants are known to influence higher trophic interactions by initiating food chains. However, as architects, plants may bypass consumers to directly affect predators with important but underappreciated trophic ramifications. Invasion of western North American grasslands by the perennial forb, spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa...

  11. Element patterns in albatrosses and petrels: Influence of trophic position, foraging range, and prey type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, O.R.J.; Phillips, R.A.; Shore, R.F.; McGill, R.A.R.; McDonald, R.A.; Bearhop, S.

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the concentrations of 22 essential and non-essential elements among a community of Procellariiformes (and their prey) to identify the extent to which trophic position and foraging range governed element accumulation. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) was used to characterise trophic (δ 15 N) and spatial patterns (δ 13 C) among species. Few consistent patterns were observed in element distributions among species and diet appeared to be highly influential in some instances. Arsenic levels in seabird red blood cells correlated with δ 15 N and δ 13 C, demonstrating the importance of trophic position and foraging range for arsenic distribution. Arsenic concentrations in prey varied significantly across taxa, and in the strength of association with δ 15 N values (trophic level). In most instances, element patterns in Procellariiformes showed the clearest separation among species, indicating that a combination of prey selection and other complex species-specific characteristics (e.g. moult patterns) were generally more important determining factors than trophic level per se. - Trophic position, foraging range, and prey type were found to influence element compositions and concentrations in Procellariiformes from South Georgia.

  12. Biogeographical region and host trophic level determine carnivore endoparasite richness in the Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalino, L M; Santos, M J; Fernandes, C; Santos-Reis, M

    2011-05-01

    We address the question of whether host and/or environmental factors might affect endoparasite richness and distribution, using carnivores as a model. We reviewed studies published in international peer-reviewed journals (34 areas in the Iberian Peninsula), describing parasite prevalence and richness in carnivores, and collected information on site location, host bio-ecology, climate and detected taxa (Helminths, Protozoa and Mycobacterium spp.). Three hypotheses were tested (i) host based, (ii) environmentally based, and (iii) hybrid (combination of environmental and host). Multicollinearity reduced candidate variable number for modelling to 5: host weight, phylogenetic independent contrasts (host weight), mean annual temperature, host trophic level and biogeographical region. General Linear Mixed Modelling was used and the best model was a hybrid model that included biogeographical region and host trophic level. Results revealed that endoparasite richness is higher in Mediterranean areas, especially for the top predators. We suggest that the detected parasites may benefit from mild environmental conditions that occur in southern regions. Top predators have larger home ranges and are likely to be subjected to cascading effects throughout the food web, resulting in more infestation opportunities and potentially higher endoparasite richness. This study suggests that richness may be more affected by historical and regional processes (including climate) than by host ecological processes.

  13. Trophic structure and mercury distribution in a Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada) food web using stable isotope analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavoie, Raphael A.; Hebert, Craig E.; Rail, Jean-Francois; Braune, Birgit M.; Yumvihoze, Emmanuel; Hill, Laura G.; Lean, David R.S.

    2010-01-01

    Even at low concentrations in the environment, mercury has the potential to biomagnify in food chains and reaches levels of concern in apex predators. The aim of this study was to relate the transfer of total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in a Gulf of St. Lawrence food web to the trophic structure, from primary consumers to seabirds, using stable nitrogen (δ 15 N) and carbon (δ 13 C) isotope analysis and physical environmental parameters. The energy reaching upper trophic level species was principally derived from pelagic primary production, with particulate organic matter (POM) at the base of the food chain. We developed a biomagnification factor (BMF) taking into account the various prey items consumed by a given predator using stable isotope mixing models. This BMF provides a more realistic estimation than when using a single prey. Lipid content, body weight, trophic level and benthic connection explained 77.4 and 80.7% of the variation in THg and MeHg concentrations, respectively in this food web. When other values were held constant, relationships with lipid and benthic connection were negative whereas relationships with trophic level and body weight were positive. Total Hg and MeHg biomagnified in this food web with biomagnification power values (slope of the relationship with δ 15 N) of 0.170 and 0.235, respectively on wet weight and 0.134 and 0.201, respectively on dry weight. Values of biomagnification power were greater for pelagic and benthopelagic species compared to benthic species whereas the opposite trend was observed for levels at the base of the food chain. This suggests that Hg would be readily bioavailable to organisms at the base of the benthic food chain, but trophic transfer would be more efficient in each trophic level of pelagic and benthopelagic food chains.

  14. Quantifying Trophic Interactions and Carbon Flow in Louisiana Salt Marshes Using Multiple Biomarkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polito, M. J.; Lopez-Duarte, P. C.; Olin, J.; Johnson, J. J.; Able, K.; Martin, C. W.; Fodrie, J.; Hooper-Bui, L. M.; Taylor, S.; Stouffer, P.; Roberts, B. J.; Rabalais, N. N.; Jensen, O.

    2017-12-01

    Salt marshes are critical habitats for many species in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, given their complex nature, quantifying trophic linkages and the flow of carbon through salt marsh food webs is challenging. This gap in our understanding of food web structure and function limits our ability to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic stressors on salt marsh ecosystems. For example, 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill had the potential to alter trophic and energy pathways. Even so, our ability to evaluate its effects on Louisiana salt marsh food webs was limited by a poor basis for comparison of the pre-spill baseline food web. To be better equipped to measure significant alterations in salt marsh ecosystems in the future, we quantified trophic interactions at two marsh sites in Barataria Bay, LA in May and October of 2015. Trophic structure and carbon flow across 52 species of saltmarsh primary producers and consumers were examined through a combination of three approaches: bulk tissue stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S), dietary fatty acid analysis (FAA), and compound-specific stable isotope analysis of essential amino acids (δ13C EAA). Bulk stable isotope analysis indicated similar trophic diversity between sites and seasons with the use of aquatic resources increasing concomitantly with trophic level. FAA and δ13C EAA biomarkers revealed that marsh organisms were largely divided into two groups: those that primarily derive carbon from terrestrial C4 grasses, and those that predominately derive carbon from a combination of phytoplankton and benthic microalgal sources. Differences in trophic structure and carbon flow were minimal between seasons and sites that were variably impacted by the DWH spill. These data on salt marsh ecosystem structure will be useful to inform future injury assessments and restoration initiatives.

  15. Trophic Ecology of Benthic Marine Invertebrates with Bi-Phasic Life Cycles: What Are We Still Missing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calado, Ricardo; Leal, Miguel Costa

    2015-01-01

    The study of trophic ecology of benthic marine invertebrates with bi-phasic life cycles is critical to understand the mechanisms shaping population dynamics. Moreover, global climate change is impacting the marine environment at an unprecedented level, which promotes trophic mismatches that affect the phenology of these species and, ultimately, act as drivers of ecological and evolutionary change. Assessing the trophic ecology of marine invertebrates is critical to understanding maternal investment, larval survival to metamorphosis, post-metamorphic performance, resource partitioning and trophic cascades. Tools already available to assess the trophic ecology of marine invertebrates, including visual observation, gut content analysis, food concentration, trophic markers, stable isotopes and molecular genetics, are reviewed and their main advantages and disadvantages for qualitative and quantitative approaches are discussed. The challenges to perform the partitioning of ingestion, digestion and assimilation are discussed together with different approaches to address each of these processes for short- and long-term fingerprinting. Future directions for research on the trophic ecology of benthic marine invertebrates with bi-phasic life cycles are discussed with emphasis on five guidelines that will allow for systematic study and comparative meta-analysis to address important unresolved questions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Vitamin D and muscle trophicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingues-Faria, Carla; Boirie, Yves; Walrand, Stéphane

    2017-05-01

    We review recent findings on the involvement of vitamin D in skeletal muscle trophicity. Vitamin D deficiencies are associated with reduced muscle mass and strength, and its supplementation seems effective to improve these parameters in vitamin D-deficient study participants. Latest investigations have also evidenced that vitamin D is essential in muscle development and repair. In particular, it modulates skeletal muscle cell proliferation and differentiation. However, discrepancies still exist about an enhancement or a decrease of muscle proliferation and differentiation by the vitamin D. Recently, it has been demonstrated that vitamin D influences skeletal muscle cell metabolism as it seems to regulate protein synthesis and mitochondrial function. Finally, apart from its genomic and nongenomic effects, recent investigations have demonstrated a genetic contribution of vitamin D to muscle functioning. Recent studies support the importance of vitamin D in muscle health, and the impact of its deficiency in regard to muscle mass and function. These 'trophic' properties are of particular importance for some specific populations such as elderly persons and athletes, and in situations of loss of muscle mass or function, particularly in the context of chronic diseases.

  17. [Trophic niche partitioning of pelagic sharks in Central Eastern Pacific inferred from stable isotope analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yun Kai; Gao, Xiao di; Wang, Lin Yu; Fang, Lin

    2018-01-01

    As the apex predators of the open ocean ecosystems, pelagic sharks play important roles in stabilizing the marine food web through top-down control. Stable isotope analysis is a powerful tool to investigate the feeding ecology. The carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios can be used to trace food source and evaluate the trophic position of marine organisms. In this study, the isotope values of 130 pelagic sharks from 8 species in Central Eastern Pacific were analyzed and their trophic position and niche were calculated to compare the intra/inter-specific resource partitioning in the Central Eastern Pacific ecosystem. The results exhibited significant differences in both carbon and nitrogen isotope values among the shark species. The trophic levels ranged from 4.3 to 5.4 in the Central Eastern Pacific shark community. The trophic niche of blue sharks and shortfin mako sharks showed no overlap with the other shark species, exhibiting unique ecological roles in the open ocean food web. These data highlighted the diverse roles among pelagic sharks, supporting previous findings that this species is not trophically redundant and the trophic niche of pelagic sharks can not be simply replaced by those of other top predator species.

  18. Baseline identification in stable -isotope studies of temperate lotic systems and implications for calculated trophic positions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Peter Brinkmann; Riis, Tenna; Dylmer, Hans Erik

    2016-01-01

    of two common fish species (three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, and brown trout Salmo trutta) differed markedly depending on the baseline chosen. The estimated trophic position was lowest when based on Baetidae and highest when using Simuliidae. The trophic position of Gasterosteus...... aculeatus was independent of land use (proxy used=%nature) when based on Gammarus pulex and Simuliidae, and the trophic position of Salmo trutta was independent of land use when based on Simuliidae only. The trophic position estimates based on Baetidae and mean primary consumers correlated with %nature...

  19. Species richness and trophic diversity increase decomposition in a co-evolved food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Baiser

    Full Text Available Ecological communities show great variation in species richness, composition and food web structure across similar and diverse ecosystems. Knowledge of how this biodiversity relates to ecosystem functioning is important for understanding the maintenance of diversity and the potential effects of species losses and gains on ecosystems. While research often focuses on how variation in species richness influences ecosystem processes, assessing species richness in a food web context can provide further insight into the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning and elucidate potential mechanisms underpinning this relationship. Here, we assessed how species richness and trophic diversity affect decomposition rates in a complete aquatic food web: the five trophic level web that occurs within water-filled leaves of the northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. We identified a trophic cascade in which top-predators--larvae of the pitcher-plant mosquito--indirectly increased bacterial decomposition by preying on bactivorous protozoa. Our data also revealed a facultative relationship in which larvae of the pitcher-plant midge increased bacterial decomposition by shredding detritus. These important interactions occur only in food webs with high trophic diversity, which in turn only occur in food webs with high species richness. We show that species richness and trophic diversity underlie strong linkages between food web structure and dynamics that influence ecosystem functioning. The importance of trophic diversity and species interactions in determining how biodiversity relates to ecosystem functioning suggests that simply focusing on species richness does not give a complete picture as to how ecosystems may change with the loss or gain of species.

  20. [Applications of stable isotope analysis in the trophic ecology studies of cephalopods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yun-Kai; Gong, Yi; Chen, Xin-Jun

    2014-05-01

    Cephalopods play an important role in marine food webs, however, knowledge about their complex life history, especially their feeding ecology, remains limited. With the rapidly increasing use of stable isotope analysis (SIA) in ecology, it becomes a powerful tool and complement of traditional methods for investigating the trophic ecology and migration patterns of invertebrates. Here, after summarizing the current methods for trophic ecology investigation of cephalopods, applications of SIA in studying the trophic ecology of cephalopods were reviewed, including the key issues such as standardization of available tissues for SIA analyzing, diet shift and migration patterns of cephalopods, with the aim of advancing its application in the biology of cephalopods in the future.

  1. Wolves trigger a trophic cascade to berries as alternative food for grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripple, William J; Beschta, Robert L; Fortin, Jennifer K; Robbins, Charles T

    2015-05-01

    This is a Forum article in response to: Barber-Meyer, S. (2015) Trophic cascades from wolves to grizzly bears or changing abundance of bears and alternate foods? Journal of Animal Ecology, 83, doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12338. We used multiple data sets and study areas as well as several lines of evidence to investigate potential trophic linkages in Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that a trophic cascade from wolves to elk to berry production to berry consumption by grizzly bears may now be underway in the Park. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

  2. PCBs and DDE, but not PBDEs, increase with trophic level and marine input in nestling bald eagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamish Elliott, Kyle; Cesh, Lillian S.; Dooley, Jessica A.; Letcher, Robert J.; Elliott, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Concentrations of persistent contaminants often vary widely among individuals within a population. We hypothesized that such variation was caused mainly by differences in diet (biomagnification) and in coastal systems by the tendency of marine systems to act as contaminant sinks. We examined the relationship between contaminant concentrations and stable isotope ratios in nestling plasma from an apex predator with a particularly broad diet. Our study included freshwater, estuarine, inshore and pelagic breeding sites. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) at the pelagic marine sites showed high trophic level and marine input, eagles at the freshwater sites showed low trophic level and marine input, and eagles at the estuarine and inshore marine sites had intermediate values. The relationship between trophic level and marine input may reflect longer food chains in pelagic compared to terrestrial ecosystems. ΣPCBs and DDE concentrations generally increased with trophic level and marine input, with the exception of the freshwater sites, while ΣPBDEs, hydroxylated-PBDEs and hydroxylated-PCBs increased with marine input, but were independent of trophic level. The relationships for ΣPCBs and DDE were often slightly stronger with marine input than trophic level, suggesting that oceanographic processes may be more important than trophic level. At freshwater locations, spatial variation may be more important than trophic level due to the heterogeneity of contaminant profiles between feeding locations (lakes, rivers, agricultural fields). Adults had similar isotopic composition to their chicks but higher contamination. Based on nests where prey composition was determined independently, isotopic enrichment values for nestling plasma were 1.6 ± 0.1 (δ 15 N) and - 0.4 ±0.2 (δ 13 C). We conclude that trophic level and marine influence are significant factors influencing PCB and DDE concentrations in eagles. However, trophic level in particular did not influence PBDEs

  3. Limited trophic partitioning among sympatric delphinids off a tropical oceanic atoll.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hillary Young

    Full Text Available Understanding trophic relationships among marine predators in remote environments is challenging, but it is critical to understand community structure and dynamics. In this study, we used stable isotope analysis of skin biopsies to compare the isotopic, and thus, trophic niches of three sympatric delphinids in the waters surrounding Palmyra Atoll, in the Central Tropical Pacific: the melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra, Gray's spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris longirostris, and the common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus. δ15N values suggested that T. truncatus occupied a significantly higher trophic position than the other two species. δ13C values did not significantly differ between the three delphinds, potentially indicating no spatial partitioning in depth or distance from shore in foraging among species. The dietary niche area-determined by isotopic variance among individuals-of T. truncatus was also over 30% smaller than those of the other species taken at the same place, indicating higher population specialization or lower interindividual variation. For P. electra only, there was some support for intraspecific variation in foraging ecology across years, highlighting the need for temporal information in studying dietary niche. Cumulatively, isotopic evidence revealed surprisingly little evidence for trophic niche partitioning in the delphinid community of Palmyra Atoll compared to other studies. However, resource partitioning may happen via other behavioral mechanisms, or prey abundance or availability may be adequate to allow these three species to coexist without any such partitioning. It is also possible that isotopic signatures are inadequate to detect trophic partitioning in this environment, possibly because isotopes of prey are highly variable or insufficiently resolved to allow for differentiation.

  4. Secondary foundation species as drivers of trophic and functional diversity: evidence from a tree-epiphyte system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelini, Christine; Silliman, Brian R

    2014-01-01

    Facilitation cascades arise where primary foundation species facilitate secondary (dependent) foundation species, and collectively, they increase habitat complexity and quality to enhance biodiversity. Whether such phenomena occur in nonmarine systems and if secondary foundation species enhance food web structure (e.g., support novel feeding guilds) and ecosystem function (e.g., provide nursery for juveniles) remain unclear. Here we report on field experiments designed to test whether trees improve epiphyte survival and epiphytes secondarily increase the number and diversity of adult and juvenile invertebrates in a potential live oak-Tillandsia usneoides (Spanish moss) facilitation cascade. Our results reveal that trees reduce physical stress to facilitate Tillandsia, which, in turn, reduces desiccation and predation stress to facilitate invertebrates. In experimental removals, invertebrate total density, juvenile density, species richness and H' diversity were 16, 60, 1.7, and 1.5 times higher, and feeding guild richness and H' were 5 and 11 times greater in Tillandsia-colonized relative to Tillandsia-removal limb plots. Tillandsia enhanced communities similarly in a survey across the southeastern United States. These findings reveal that a facilitation cascade organizes this widespread terrestrial assemblage and expand the role of secondary foundation species as drivers of trophic structure and ecosystem function. We conceptualize the relationship between foundation species' structural attributes and associated species abundance and composition in a Foundation Species-Biodiversity (FSB) model. Importantly, the FSB predicts that, where secondary foundation species form expansive and functionally distinct structures that increase habitat availability and complexity within primary foundation species, they generate and maintain hot spots of biodiversity and trophic interactions.

  5. Trophic transfer of metal-based nanoparticles in aquatic environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tangaa, Stine Rosendal; Selck, Henriette; Winther-Nielsen, Margrethe

    2016-01-01

    Metal-containing engineered nanoparticles (Me-ENPs) are used in a wide range of products including inks, plastics, personal care products, clothing and electronic devices. The release of Me-ENPs has been demonstrated from some products, and thus, particles are likely to enter the aquatic environm......Metal-containing engineered nanoparticles (Me-ENPs) are used in a wide range of products including inks, plastics, personal care products, clothing and electronic devices. The release of Me-ENPs has been demonstrated from some products, and thus, particles are likely to enter the aquatic...... environment where they have been shown to be taken up by a variety of species. Therefore, there is a possibility that Me-ENPs will enter and pass through aquatic food webs, but research on this topic is limited. In this tutorial review, we discuss the factors contributing to trophic transfer of Me......-ENPs, and where this information is scarce, we utilize the existing literature on aqueous metal trophic transfer as a potential starting point for greater mechanistic insight and for setting directions for future studies. We identify four key factors affecting trophic transfer of Me-ENPs: (1) environmental...

  6. Ecosystem Responses To Plant Phenology Across Scales And Trophic Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    Plant phenology in arid and semi-arid ecoregions is constrained by water availability and governs the life history characteristics of primary and secondary consumers. We related the behavior, demography, and distribution of mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed vegetation and climatological indices across the western United States for the period 2000-2014. Across scales, terrain and topographic position moderates the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in differential susceptibility among plant functional types to water stress. At broad scales, herbivores tie parturition to moist sites during the period of maximum increase in local forage production. Consequently, juvenile mortality is highest in regions of extreme phenological variability. Although decoupled from primary production by one or more trophic levels, carnivore home range size and density is negatively correlated to plant productivity and growing season length. At the finest scales, predation influences the behavior of herbivore prey through compromised habitat selection, in which maternal females trade nutritional benefits of high plant biomass for reduced mortality risk associated with increased visibility. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming combined with shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that these changes will propagate through trophic levels as increased phenological variability and shifts in plant distributions, larger consumer home ranges, altered migration behavior, and generally higher volatility in wildlife populations. Combined with expansion and intensification of human land use across the region, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict (e.g., crop damage, vehicle collisions) and changes in wildlife-related tourism.

  7. Examining predator–prey body size, trophic level and body mass across marine and terrestrial mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Marlee A.; Rogers, Tracey L.

    2014-01-01

    Predator–prey relationships and trophic levels are indicators of community structure, and are important for monitoring ecosystem changes. Mammals colonized the marine environment on seven separate occasions, which resulted in differences in species' physiology, morphology and behaviour. It is likely that these changes have had a major effect upon predator–prey relationships and trophic position; however, the effect of environment is yet to be clarified. We compiled a dataset, based on the literature, to explore the relationship between body mass, trophic level and predator–prey ratio across terrestrial (n = 51) and marine (n = 56) mammals. We did not find the expected positive relationship between trophic level and body mass, but we did find that marine carnivores sit 1.3 trophic levels higher than terrestrial carnivores. Also, marine mammals are largely carnivorous and have significantly larger predator–prey ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We propose that primary productivity, and its availability, is important for mammalian trophic structure and body size. Also, energy flow and community structure in the marine environment are influenced by differences in energy efficiency and increased food web stability. Enhancing our knowledge of feeding ecology in mammals has the potential to provide insights into the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial communities. PMID:25377460

  8. Evaluation of the Trophic Level of Kune and Vain Lagoons in Albania, Using Phytoplankton as a Bioindicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anni Koci Kallfa

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Concentration of chlorophyll is an adequate parameter for assessing the trophic state of lagoon ecosystems. Objectives of this study are: selection of a system of bioindicators to enable a good qualitative evaluation of the trophic state of the lagoons and their dynamics; evaluation of seasonal water quality variability and comparison between lagoons. The trophic state of the lagoons is analysed every month over the year. Water samples are retrieved at four different sites (exact coordinates each month, sites that are representative of different water circulation systems at each lagoon. The trophic level in the respective lagoons is thus assessed through selection of an adequate system of bioindicators, in order to observe the oscillations of the amount of chlorophyll and therefore to determine the level of eutrophication. Based on the above parameters, the comparison of the trophic state in these two lagoons has shown that they have different trophic states.

  9. Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

    2015-01-01

    Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  10. Trophic model of the outer continental shelf and upper slope demersal community of the southeastern Brazilian Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela C. Nascimento

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available It is increasingly recognized that demersal communities are important for the functioning of continental shelf and slope ecosystems around the world, including tropical regions. Demersal communities are most prominent in areas of high detritus production and transport, and they link benthic and pelagic biological communities. To understand the structure and role of the demersal community on the southeastern Brazilian Bight, we constructed a trophodynamic model with 37 functional groups to represent the demersal community of the outer continental shelf and upper slope of this area, using the Ecopath with Ecosim 6 (EwE approach and software. The model indicates high production and biomass of detritus and benthic invertebrates, and strong linkages of these components to demersal and pelagic sub-webs. The level of omnivory indexes in this ecosystem was high, forming a highly connected trophic web reminiscent of tropical land areas. Although high levels of ascendency may indicate resistance and resilience to disturbance, recent and present fisheries trends are probably degrading the biological community and related ecosystem services.

  11. Predictive models for monitoring and analysis of the total zooplankton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obradović Milica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, modeling and prediction of total zooplankton abundance have been performed by various tools and techniques, among which data mining tools have been less frequent. The purpose of this paper is to automatically determine the dependency degree and the influence of physical, chemical and biological parameters on the total zooplankton abundance, through design of the specific data mining models. For this purpose, the analysis of key influencers was used. The analysis is based on the data obtained from the SeLaR information system - specifically, the data from the two reservoirs (Gruža and Grošnica with different morphometric characteristics and trophic state. The data is transformed into optimal structure for data analysis, upon which, data mining model based on the Naïve Bayes algorithm is constructed. The results of the analysis imply that in both reservoirs, parameters of groups and species of zooplankton have the greatest influence on the total zooplankton abundance. If these inputs (group and zooplankton species are left out, differences in the impact of physical, chemical and other biological parameters in dependences of reservoirs can be noted. In the Grošnica reservoir, analysis showed that the temporal dimension (months, nitrates, water temperature, chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll and chlorides, had the key influence with strong relative impact. In the Gruža reservoir, key influence parameters for total zooplankton are: spatial dimension (location, water temperature and physiological groups of bacteria. The results show that the presented data mining model is usable on any kind of aquatic ecosystem and can also serve for the detection of inputs which could be the basis for the future analysis and modeling.

  12. Trophic interactions among the heterotrophic components of plankton in man-made peat pools

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    Michał Niedźwiecki

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Man-made peat pools are permanent freshwater habitats developed due to non-commercial man-made peat extraction. Yet, they have not been widely surveyed in terms of ecosystem functioning, mainly regarding the complexity of heterotrophic components of the plankton. In this study we analysed distribution and trophic interrelations among heterotrophic plankton in man-made peat pools located in different types of peatbogs. We found that peat pools showed extreme differences in environmental conditions that occurred to be important drivers of distribution of microplankton and metazooplankton. Abundance of bacteria and protozoa showed significant differences, whereas metazooplankton was less differentiated in density among peat pools. In all peat pools stress-tolerant species of protozoa and metazoa were dominant. In each peat pool five trophic functional groups were distinguished. The abundance of lower functional trophic groups (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF and ciliates feeding on bacteria and HNF was weakly influenced by environmental drivers and was highly stable in all peat pool types. Higher functional trophic groups (naupli, omnivorous and carnivorous ciliates, cladocerans, adult copepods and copepodites were strongly influenced by environmental variables and exhibited lower stability. Our study contributes to comprehensive knowledge of the functioning of peat bogs, as our results have shown that peat pools are characterized by high stability of the lowest trophic levels, which can be crucial for energy transfer and carbon flux through food webs.

  13. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  14. Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-02-01

    The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Disease-mediated bottom-up regulation: An emergent virus affects a keystone prey, and alters the dynamics of trophic webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterroso, Pedro; Garrote, Germán; Serronha, Ana; Santos, Emídio; Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Abrantes, Joana; Perez de Ayala, Ramón; Silvestre, Fernando; Carvalho, João; Vasco, Inês; Lopes, Ana M; Maio, Elisa; Magalhães, Maria J; Mills, L Scott; Esteves, Pedro J; Simón, Miguel Ángel; Alves, Paulo C

    2016-10-31

    Emergent diseases may alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems by creating new biotic interactions and modifying existing ones, producing cascading processes along trophic webs. Recently, a new variant of the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV2 or RHDVb) arguably caused widespread declines in a keystone prey in Mediterranean ecosystems - the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We quantitatively assess the impact of RHDV2 on natural rabbit populations and in two endangered apex predator populations: the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and the Spanish Imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti). We found 60-70% declines in rabbit populations, followed by decreases of 65.7% in Iberian lynx and 45.5% in Spanish Imperial eagle fecundities. A revision of the web of trophic interactions among rabbits and their dependent predators suggests that RHDV2 acts as a keystone species, and may steer Mediterranean ecosystems to management-dependent alternative states, dominated by simplified mesopredator communities. This model system stresses the importance of diseases as functional players in the dynamics of trophic webs.

  16. Trophic structure of the fouling community in Odessa Bay (Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Y. Varigin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trophic structure of the coastal fouling community of Odessa Bay (Black Sea, which was composed of 10 species of macrophytes, 57 invertebrate species and 4 species of fish, was determined. The basic trophic relationship between organisms composing the community is shown. A minimization of interspecific trophic competition within the community is noted. The main sources of food material entering the fouling community were determined. We show that a significant proportion of food in the form of detritus, dissolved organic matter and small planktonic organisms enters the community from the water column. Filtration and pumping activity of sestonophage-organisms, particularly mussels, helps to attract food material to the community. Primary producers of the community are macrophytes and microphytes, which develop on account of their photosynthetic activity and ensure the provision of food to herbivores. The trophic group of detritophages consumes different fractions of the detritus which accumulates in the byssus threads of bivalve molluscs. In this context, mussel druses act as sediment traps, collecting detritus. Numerous polyphages, which are essentially omnivores and do not usually lack food material, were noted in the community. A small group of carnivorous invertebrates, whose representatives actively attack small animals, was identified. The abundance of these species in the community was about 1%, and their biomass less than 0.6%. Fish living in macrophyte weeds are the consumers in the community. We determined that the highest relative abundance (over 36% in the fouling community was reached by sestonophages and polyphages. We found that the undisputed leader in the relative biomass (over 97% in the fouling community ofOdessaBaywas the sestonophages (mainly composed of mussels. We determined that the trophic structure index of the community was 0.94, which confirms the significant dominance in biomass of bivalves over other species in

  17. Trophic Niche Differentiation in Rodents and Marsupials Revealed by Stable Isotopes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Galetti

    Full Text Available Tropical rainforests support the greatest diversity of small mammals in the world, yet we have little understanding about the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of species. Diet partitioning can favor coexistence by lessening competition, and interspecific differences in body size and habitat use are usually proposed to be associated with trophic divergence. However, the use of classic dietary methods (e.g. stomach contents is challenging in small mammals, particularly in community-level studies, thus we used stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N to infer about trophic niche. We investigated i how trophic niche is partitioned among rodent and marsupial species in three Atlantic forest sites and ii if interspecific body size and locomotor habit inequalities can constitute mechanisms underlying the isotopic niche partitioning. We found that rodents occupied a broad isotopic niche space with species distributed in different trophic levels and relying on diverse basal carbon sources (C3 and C4 plants. Surprisingly, on the other hand, marsupials showed a narrow isotopic niche, both in δ13C and δ15N dimensions, which is partially overlapped with rodents, contradicting their description as omnivores and generalists proposed classic dietary studies. Although body mass differences did not explained the divergence in isotopic values among species, groups of species with different locomotor habit presented clear differences in the position of the isotopic niche space, indicating that the use of different forest strata can favor trophic niche partitioning in small mammals communities. We suggest that anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat modification (logging, harvesting, can simplify the vertical structure of ecosystems and collapse the diversity of basal resources, which might affect negatively small mammals communities in Atlantic forests.

  18. Subcellular compartmentalization of Cd and Zn in two bivalves. II. Significance of trophically available metal (TAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W.G.; Luoma, S.N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines how the subcellular partitioning of Cd and Zn in the bivalves Macoma balthica and Potamocorbula amurensis may affect the trophic transfer of metal to predators. Results show that the partitioning of metals to organelles, 'enzymes' and metallothioneins (MT) comprise a subcellular compartment containing trophically available metal (TAM; i.e. metal trophically available to predators), and that because this partitioning varies with species, animal size and metal, TAM is similarly influenced. Clams from San Francisco Bay, California, were exposed for 14 d to 3.5 ??g 1-1 Cd and 20.5 ??g 1-1 Zn, including 109Cd and 65Zn as radiotracers, and were used in feeding experiments with grass shrimp Palaemon macrodatylus, or used to investigate the subcellular partitioning of metal. Grass shrimp fed Cd-contaminated P. amurensis absorbed ???60% of ingested Cd, which was in accordance with the partitioning of Cd to the bivalve's TAM compartment (i.e. Cd associated with organelles, 'enzymes' and MT); a similar relationship was found in previous studies with grass shrimp fed Cd-contaminated oligochaetes. Thus, TAM may be used as a tool to predict the trophic transfer of at least Cd. Subcellular fractionation revealed that ???34% of both the Cd and Zn accumulated by M. balthica was associated with TAM, while partitioning to TAM in P. amurensis was metal-dependent (???60% for TAM-Cd%, ???73% for TAM-Zn%). The greater TAM-Cd% of P. amurensis than M. balthica is due to preferential binding of Cd to MT and 'enzymes', while enhanced TAM-Zn% of P. amurensis results from a greater binding of Zn to organelles. TAM for most species-metal combinations was size-dependent, decreasing with increased clam size. Based on field data, it is estimated that of the 2 bivalves, P. amurensis poses the greater threat of Cd exposure to predators because of higher tissue concentrations and greater partitioning as TAM; exposure of Zn to predators would be similar between these species.

  19. Trophic significance of the kelp Laminaria digitata (Lamour.) for the associated food web: a between-sites comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Gauthier; Riera, Pascal; Leroux, Cédric

    2009-12-01

    This study aimed at establishing the trophic significance of the kelp Laminaria digitata for consumers inhabiting two rocky shores of Northern Brittany (France), displaying contrasted ecological conditions. The general trophic structure did not vary between these two sites, with a wide diversity of filter-feeders and predators, and only 14% of the species sampled belonging to the grazers' trophic group. The diversity of food sources fueling the food web appeared also similar. The food webs comprised four trophic levels and the prevalence of omnivory appeared relatively low compared to previous studies in the same area. Conversely, to the food web structure, which did not differ, the biochemical composition of L. digitata differed between the two sites, and was correlated to a larger diversity of grazers feeding on this kelp in sheltered conditions. This indicated that the spatial variability occurring in the nutritive value of L. digitata is likely to deeply affect the functioning of kelp-associated food webs. The contribution of L. digitata-derived organic matter to the diet of filter-feeders inhabiting these two environments was assessed using the mixing model Isosource, which showed the higher contribution of kelp matter in sheltered conditions. These results highlight the spatial variability that may occur in the functioning of kelp-associated food webs. Moreover, this suggests that hydrodynamics is likely to control the availability of kelp-derived organic matter to local filter-feeders, probably through an increase of detritus export in exposed areas.

  20. Pre- and post-hatch trophic egg production in the subsocial burrower bug, Canthophorus niveimarginatus (Heteroptera: Cydnidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippi, Lisa; Baba, Narumi; Inadomi, Koichi; Yanagi, Takao; Hironaka, Mantaro; Nomakuchi, Shintaro

    2009-02-01

    In recent years, three terrestrial bugs, Adomerus triguttulus and Sehirus cinctus (Cydnidae) and the closely related Parastrachia japonensis (Parastrachiidae), have been the focus of several fascinating studies because of the remarkable, extensive parental care they were found to display. This care includes egg and nymph guarding, production of trophic eggs, unfertilized, low cost eggs that are used as food by newly hatched nymphs, and progressive provisioning of the host seed. In this study, we have investigated yet a third related Asian cydnid, Canthophorus niveimarginatus, with regard to the possible occurrence of some or all of these complex traits in order to assess how widespread these maternal investment patterns are in this group of insects and to better understand the implications of their manifestations from an evolutionary context. Manipulative experiments were carried out in the lab to determine whether females provision nests. Observational and egg removal studies were carried out to determine whether trophic eggs are produced, and, if they are, their possible impact on nymphal success. The findings revealed that C. niveimarginatus does, in fact, progressively provision young, and this species also displays all of the other behaviors associated with extended parental care in subsocial insects. Moreover, unlike the other two related species, which place trophic eggs on the surface of the original egg mass, C. niveimarginatus produces both pre- and post-hatch trophic eggs. Nymphs deprived of access to post-hatch trophic eggs had significantly lower body weight and survival rate than those that fed on them. To our knowledge, this is the first time the production of both pre- and post-hatch trophic eggs has been demonstrated in insects outside the Hymenoptera. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the provisioning behavior and patterns of trophic egg production in C. niveimarginatus. When and how trophic eggs are produced and

  1. Examining predator-prey body size, trophic level and body mass across marine and terrestrial mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Marlee A; Rogers, Tracey L

    2014-12-22

    Predator-prey relationships and trophic levels are indicators of community structure, and are important for monitoring ecosystem changes. Mammals colonized the marine environment on seven separate occasions, which resulted in differences in species' physiology, morphology and behaviour. It is likely that these changes have had a major effect upon predator-prey relationships and trophic position; however, the effect of environment is yet to be clarified. We compiled a dataset, based on the literature, to explore the relationship between body mass, trophic level and predator-prey ratio across terrestrial (n = 51) and marine (n = 56) mammals. We did not find the expected positive relationship between trophic level and body mass, but we did find that marine carnivores sit 1.3 trophic levels higher than terrestrial carnivores. Also, marine mammals are largely carnivorous and have significantly larger predator-prey ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We propose that primary productivity, and its availability, is important for mammalian trophic structure and body size. Also, energy flow and community structure in the marine environment are influenced by differences in energy efficiency and increased food web stability. Enhancing our knowledge of feeding ecology in mammals has the potential to provide insights into the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial communities. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  3. Assessing mesozooplankton trophic levels in the Baltic Sea and North Sea: A stable isotope study

    OpenAIRE

    Agurto, Cristian

    2007-01-01

    For decades, ecologists have studied trophic interaction in aquatic systems, and described the food web structure of dominant ecological groups based on gut content analyses. The conception of these interactions may, however, be biased by the lack of couplings to the microbial food web and direct errors in diet analyses (e.g. differences in digestion rate between food types). In this thesis, I examined the planktonic food web by analyzing the trophic structure (i.e. trophic levels) with an al...

  4. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Zielinski, Daniel C.; Guarnieri, Michael T.; Antoniewicz, Maciek R.; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. PMID:27372244

  5. The genetic architecture of novel trophic specialists: larger effect sizes are associated with exceptional oral jaw diversification in a pupfish adaptive radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Christopher H; Erickson, Priscilla A; Miller, Craig T

    2017-01-01

    The genetic architecture of adaptation is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms and constraints governing diversification. However, most case studies focus on loss of complex traits or parallel speciation in similar environments. It is still unclear how the genetic architecture of these local adaptive processes compares to the architecture of evolutionary transitions contributing to morphological and ecological novelty. Here, we identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) between two trophic specialists in an excellent case study for examining the origins of ecological novelty: a sympatric radiation of pupfishes endemic to San Salvador Island, Bahamas, containing a large-jawed scale-eater and a short-jawed molluscivore with a skeletal nasal protrusion. These specialized niches and trophic traits are unique among over 2000 related species. Measurements of the fitness landscape on San Salvador demonstrate multiple fitness peaks and a larger fitness valley isolating the scale-eater from the putative ancestral intermediate phenotype of the generalist, suggesting that more large-effect QTL should contribute to its unique phenotype. We evaluated this prediction using an F2 intercross between these specialists. We present the first linkage map for pupfishes and detect significant QTL for sex and eight skeletal traits. Large-effect QTL contributed more to enlarged scale-eater jaws than the molluscivore nasal protrusion, consistent with predictions from the adaptive landscape. The microevolutionary genetic architecture of large-effect QTL for oral jaws parallels the exceptional diversification rates of oral jaws within the San Salvador radiation observed over macroevolutionary timescales and may have facilitated exceptional trophic novelty in this system. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Long-chain omega-3 from low-trophic-level fish provides value to farmed seafood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibus, Douglas M

    2015-03-01

    Low-trophic-level fish are a crucial source of long-chain (LC) omega-3 fatty acids for farmed fish and humans. Many farm-raised fish species have a clear need for these nutrients. Farmed fish deposit the LC omega-3s in their flesh and transfer them up the food chain. However, the content of LC omega-3s in farm-raised seafood continues to decline, while the content of shorter-chain plant-sourced omega-3s, and pro-inflammtory omega-6s continue to increase. This reduces its nutritional worth. The value of low-trophic-level fish is often viewed merely as its price at the dock. Some reports and metrics steer public attention towards the mass balance between quantities of low-trophic-level fish and farmed seafood. However, the the nutritional value of seafood is more important than its mere quantities. The role of low-trophic-level fish in human nutrition, health, and wellbeing is a fundamental component of its economic value to society.

  7. Modelling the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality in a mediterranean limno-reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina-Navarro, Euginio; Trolle, Dennis; Martinez-Pérez, Silvia

    Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. All the scenarios predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions...

  8. Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trainor, Anne M; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2014-12-01

    Community ecology involves studying the interdependence of species with each other and their environment to predict their geographical distribution and abundance. Modern species distribution analyses characterise species-environment dependency well, but offer only crude approximations of species interdependency. Typically, the dependency between focal species and other species is characterised using other species' point occurrences as spatial covariates to constrain the focal species' predicted range. This implicitly assumes that the strength of interdependency is homogeneous across space, which is not generally supported by analyses of species interactions. This discrepancy has an important bearing on the accuracy of inferences about habitat suitability for species. We introduce a framework that integrates principles from consumer-resource analyses, resource selection theory and species distribution modelling to enhance quantitative prediction of species geographical distributions. We show how to apply the framework using a case study of lynx and snowshoe hare interactions with each other and their environment. The analysis shows how the framework offers a spatially refined understanding of species distribution that is sensitive to nuances in biophysical attributes of the environment that determine the location and strength of species interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  9. Diet Composition and Trophic Ecology of Northeast Pacific Ocean Sharks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizzarro, Joseph J; Carlisle, Aaron B; Smith, Wade D; Cortés, Enric

    Although there is a general perception of sharks as large pelagic, apex predators, most sharks are smaller, meso- and upper-trophic level predators that are associated with the seafloor. Among 73 shark species documented in the eastern North Pacific (ENP), less than half reach maximum lengths >200cm, and 78% occur in demersal or benthic regions of the continental shelf or slope. Most small (≤200cm) species (e.g., houndsharks) and demersal, nearshore juveniles of larger species (e.g., requiem sharks) consume small teleosts and decapod crustaceans, whereas large species in pelagic coastal and oceanic environments feed on large teleosts and squids. Several large, pelagic apex predator species occur in the ENP, but the largest species (i.e., Basking Shark, Whale Shark) consume zooplankton or small nekton. Size-based dietary variability is substantial for many species, and segregation of juvenile and adult foraging habitats also is common (e.g., Horn Shark, Shortfin Mako). Temporal dietary differences are most pronounced for temperate, nearshore species with wide size ranges, and least pronounced for smaller species in extreme latitudes and deep-water regions. Sympatric sharks often occupy various trophic positions, with resource overlap differing by space and time and some sharks serving as prey to other species. Most coastal species remain in the same general region over time and feed opportunistically on variable prey inputs (e.g., season migrations, spawning, or recruitment events), whereas pelagic, oceanic species actively seek hot spots of prey abundance that are spatiotemporally variable. The influence of sharks on ecosystem structure and regulation has been downplayed compared to that of large teleosts species with higher per capita consumption rates (e.g., tunas, billfishes). However, sharks also exert indirect influences on prey populations by causing behavioural changes that may result in restricted ranges and reduced fitness. Except for food web modelling

  10. Use of satellite imagery to assess the trophic state of Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhengjun; Hong Jianming; Du Guisen

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this research is to explore an appropriate way of monitoring and assessing water quality by satellite remote sensing techniques in the Miyun reservoir of Beijing, China. Two scene Thematic Mapper images in May and October of 2003 were acquired and simultaneous in situ measurements, sampling and analysis were conducted. Statistical analysis indicates that satellite-based normalized ratio vegetation index (NRVI) and in situ measured water chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration have very high correlation. Two linear regression models with high determination coefficients were constructed for NRVI and Chl-a of sample points. According to the modified trophic state index map, water quality in the western section of Miyun reservoir was consistently higher than in the eastern section during the two months tested. The trophic grade of the eastern reservoir remained mesotrophic with a tendency for eutrophication. - Remote sensing techniques can effectively monitor the change of water quality with time and space

  11. Trophic position of soil nematodes in boreal forests as indicated by stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudrin, Alexey; Tsurikov, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Despite the well-developed trophic classification of soil nematodes, their position in soil food webs is still little understood. Observed deviations from the typical feeding strategy indicate that a simplified trophic classification probably does not fully reflect actual trophic interactions. Furthermore, the extent and functional significance of nematodes as prey for other soil animals remains unknown. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) is powerful tool for investigating the structure of soil food webs, but its application to the study of soil nematodes has been limited to only a few studies. We used stable isotope analysis to gain a better understanding of trophic links of several groups of soil nematodes in two boreal forests on albeluvisol. We investigated four taxonomic groups of nematodes: Mononchida, Dorylaimida, Plectidae and Tylenchidae (mostly from the genus Filenchus), that according to the conventional trophic classification represent predators, omnivores, bacterivores and root-fungal feeders, respectively. To assess the trophic position of nematodes, we used a comparison against a set of reference species including herbivorous, saprophagous and predatory macro-invertebrates, oribatid and mesostigmatid mites, and collembolans. Our results suggest that trophic position of the investigated groups of soil nematodes generally corresponds to the conventional classification. All nematodes were enriched in 13C relative to Picea abies roots and litter, and mycorrhizal fungal mycelium. Root-fungal feeders Tylenchidae had δ15N values similar to those of earthworms, enchytraeids and Entomobrya collembolans, but slightly lower δ13C values. Bacterivorous Plectidae were either equal or enriched in 15N compared with saprophagous macroinvertebrates and most mesofauna species. Omnivorous Dorylaimida and predatory Mononchida were further enriched in 15N and their isotopic signature was similar to that of predatory arthropods. These data confirm a clear separation of

  12. Trophic structure and feeding rates of forest soil invertebrate populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McBrayer, J F; Reichle, D E

    1971-01-01

    Trophic level relationships of a soil invertebrate community were determined using the transient behavior of cesium-137 in experimental soil microcosms. Feeding rates were estimated from radionuclide mass balance equations using radiocesium uptake coefficients, equilibrium concentrations of /sup 137/Cs in consumers, and /sup 137/Cs composition of food bases. The fungivore trophic level included Scatopsidae larvae (Diptera), Enchytraeida (Annelida), Entomobryidae and Onychiuridae (Collembola), Rhodacaridae (Mesostigmata), and Oribatulidae, Camasiidae, Carabodidae, and Cymbaeremaeidae (Oribatei). Approximately 60% of the total faunal biomass occurred in the fungivore trophic level. Fungivores averaged 7.0 +/- 2.4% dry body weight ingested per day. Cecidomyiidae larvae (Diptera), Diplopoda, Isotomidae (Collembola), Uropodina, and Phthiracaridae (Oribatei) were determined to be surface-feeding saprophages. Subsurface-feeding saprophages included Symphyla, Cillibidae (Uropidina), and Palaeacaridae and Epilohmannidae (Oribatei). Surface-feeding saprophages averaged 1.0 +/- 0.4% dry body weight ingested per day. Feeding rates were not calculated for saprophages feeding within the mineral soil horizon. Predators included Dolichopodidae larvae (Diptera), gamasine mites, and the Scutacaridae and other prostigmatid mites. Predators averaged 2.5 +/- 1.0% dry body weight ingested per day. 15 references, 3 figures, 3 tables.

  13. Assessing trophic linkages in and around offshore wind farms using two high-speed optical sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudeck, Tim; Hufnagl, Marc; Auch, Dominik; Eckhardt, André; Möller, Klas-Ove; van Beusekom, Justus; Walter, Bettina; Möllmann, Christian; Floeter, Jens

    2016-04-01

    In search for clean, renewable energy sources European countries have built and planned numerous Offshore Wind Farms (OWF) in the North Sea region. While some research has been carried out on their influence on marine mammals and bottom-dwelling organisms, less is known about fish and lower trophic levels in these areas. Yet, marine mammals purposely seek these structures and there are indications that there are higher chances of fish encounters. However, the local bottom-up effects probably driving these aggregations of higher trophic level organisms are poorly understood. In this study we show preliminary results of primary and secondary production in and around German OWFs in the North Sea using a Laser Optical Particle Counter and a Video Plankton Recorder. With the two sensors working simultaneously on the TRIAXUS system at high speed, we were able to investigate and ground-truth size-spectrum changes on a very high spatial resolution making it possible to detect OWF effects from local to larger scales. Our results show new possibilities in OWF research and the necessity to collect highly resolved field data for meaningful results in these dynamic environments. Furthermore, the use of size spectra simplifies the integration of energy flow through low and medium trophic levels into biogeochemical models by using only a single automatically measurable variable such as size.

  14. The hormone prolactin is a novel, endogenous trophic factor able to regulate reactive glia and to limit retinal degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Edith; Thebault, Stéphanie; Baeza-Cruz, German; Arredondo Zamarripa, David; Adán, Norma; Quintanar-Stéphano, Andrés; Condés-Lara, Miguel; Rojas-Piloni, Gerardo; Binart, Nadine; Martínez de la Escalera, Gonzalo; Clapp, Carmen

    2014-01-29

    Retinal degeneration is characterized by the progressive destruction of retinal cells, causing the deterioration and eventual loss of vision. We explored whether the hormone prolactin provides trophic support to retinal cells, thus protecting the retina from degenerative pressure. Inducing hyperprolactinemia limited photoreceptor apoptosis, gliosis, and changes in neurotrophin expression, and it preserved the photoresponse in the phototoxicity model of retinal degeneration, in which continuous exposure of rats to bright light leads to retinal cell death and retinal dysfunction. In this model, the expression levels of prolactin receptors in the retina were upregulated. Moreover, retinas from prolactin receptor-deficient mice exhibited photoresponsive dysfunction and gliosis that correlated with decreased levels of retinal bFGF, GDNF, and BDNF. Collectively, these data unveiled prolactin as a retinal trophic factor that may regulate glial-neuronal cell interactions and is a potential therapeutic molecule against retinal degeneration.

  15. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Huelsman, Tyler; Levering, Jennifer; Zielinski, Daniel C; McConnell, Brian O; Long, Christopher P; Knoshaug, Eric P; Guarnieri, Michael T; Antoniewicz, Maciek R; Betenbaugh, Michael J; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-09-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

  16. Trophic and neurotrophic factors in human pituitary adenomas (Review).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spoletini, Marialuisa; Taurone, Samanta; Tombolini, Mario; Minni, Antonio; Altissimi, Giancarlo; Wierzbicki, Venceslao; Giangaspero, Felice; Parnigotto, Pier Paolo; Artico, Marco; Bardella, Lia; Agostinelli, Enzo; Pastore, Francesco Saverio

    2017-10-01

    The pituitary gland is an organ that functionally connects the hypothalamus with the peripheral organs. The pituitary gland is an important regulator of body homeostasis during development, stress, and other processes. Pituitary adenomas are a group of tumors arising from the pituitary gland: they may be subdivided in functional or non-functional, depending on their hormonal activity. Some trophic and neurotrophic factors seem to play a key role in the development and maintenance of the pituitary function and in the regulation of hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenocortical axis activity. Several lines of evidence suggest that trophic and neurotrophic factors may be involved in pituitary function, thus suggesting a possible role of the trophic and neurotrophic factors in the normal development of pituitary gland and in the progression of pituitary adenomas. Additional studies might be necessary to better explain the biological role of these molecules in the development and progression of this type of tumor. In this review, in light of the available literature, data on the following neurotrophic factors are discussed: ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF), transforming growth factors β (TGF‑β), glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF), nerve growth factor (NGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), vascular endothelial growth inhibitor (VEGI), fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) and epidermal growth factor (EGF) which influence the proliferation and growth of pituitary adenomas.

  17. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  18. Isotopic determination of the trophic ecology of a ubiquitous key species - The crab Liocarcinus depurator (Brachyura: Portunidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Careddu, Giulio; Calizza, Edoardo; Costantini, Maria Letizia; Rossi, Loreto

    2017-05-01

    Knowledge of the trophic ecology of predators is key to understanding how they affect food web structure and ecosystem functioning. The harbour crab Liocarcinus depurator (L.) (Brachyura: Portunidae) is one of the most abundant decapod species in soft-bottom areas of the Mediterranean Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean. It is both a common prey and predator of commercial and non-commercial marine species and its predation pressure appears to have little effect on the subtidal community assemblage. However, there are few studies of its diet and little is known about its role in mediating energy flows in marine ecosystems. In this study, carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope analysis (SIA) and Bayesian analytical tools were used to characterise the trophic niche of L. depurator and to quantify the most important prey supporting this species under various environmental conditions. Specimens of L. depurator, their potential prey and basal resources were collected from two different subtidal areas of the Gulf of Gaeta, one affected by human activities (north side) and the other seasonally influenced by freshwater inputs originating from the River Garigliano (south side). While there were differences between the two sampling areas in terms of the abundance and δ15N and δ13C values of the macrobenthic prey community, no differences in the δ15N values and trophic position of L. depurator were observed. Specifically, Bayesian mixing models showed Polychaeta Errantia as the main source of crab diets in both areas. The observed differences in the δ13C values and the analysis of trophic pathways also indicate that the terrestrial organic matter originating from the discharge of the River Garigliano was integrated along the food web up to L. depurator. Although this species is usually considered an opportunistic feeder, it appears to be highly selective and its trophic habits did not influence food web topology, which in contrast was found to be strongly

  19. Isotope niche dimension and trophic overlap between bigheaded carps and native filter-feeding fish in the lower Missouri River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhu; Chapman, Duane C.; Xu, Jun; Wang, Yang; Gu, Binhe

    2018-01-01

    Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values (δ13C and δ15N) were used to evaluate trophic niche overlap between two filter-feeding fishes (known together as bigheaded carp) native to China, silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis), and three native filter-feeding fish including bigmouth buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus), gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) and paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the lower Missouri River, USA, using the Bayesian Stable Isotope in R statistics. Results indicate that except for bigmouth buffalo, all species displayed similar trophic niche size and trophic diversity. Bigmouth buffalo occupied a small trophic niche and had the greatest trophic overlap with silver carp (93.6%) and bighead carp (94.1%) followed by gizzard shad (91.0%). Paddlefish had a trophic niche which relied on some resources different from those used by other species, and therefore had the lowest trophic overlap with bigheaded carp and other two native fish. The trophic overlap by bigheaded carp onto native fish was typically stronger than the reverse effects from native fish. Average niche overlap between silver carp and native species was as high as 71%, greater than niche overlap between bighead carp and native fish (64%). Our findings indicate that bigheaded carps are a potential threat to a diverse and stable native fish community.

  20. The Aquatic Trophic Ecology of Suisun Marsh, San Francisco Estuary, California, During Autumn in a Wet Year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert E. Schroeter

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.v13iss3art6Using stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C and nitrogen (δ15N and mixing models, we investigated the trophic levels and carbon sources of invertebrates and fishes of a large tidal marsh in the San Francisco Estuary. Our goal was to better understand an estuarine food web comprised of native and alien species. We found the following: (1 the food web was based largely on carbon from phytoplankton and emergent-aquatic and terrestrial vegetation, but carbon from submerged aquatic vegetation and phytobenthos was also used; (2 alien species increased the complexity of the food web by altering carbon-flow pathways and by occupying trophic positions different from native species; and (3 most consumers were dietary generalists.

  1. Temporal changes in periphytic meiofauna in lakes of different trophic states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Pettersson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Meiofaunal organisms in the periphyton of stony hard-substrates (epilithon were studied in three Swedish lakes with different trophic states (oligo-, meso- and eutrophic with respect to seasonal successions in abundance, biomass, and production. Over a period of 2 years, the meiofaunal population of all three lakes fluctuated greatly, with densities varying up to nine-fold within a season. In the oligotrophic lake, a significant decrease in meiofauna in winter was striking, whereas in the other two lakes, richer in nutrients, there was a pronounced peak in early summer. Although the lakes, on average, did not differ in epilithic organic and inorganic material, the differences in meiofaunal abundance, biomass, and production were significant. Correlation analysis revealed that altogether the meiofaunal biomass was positively related to the lakes’ trophic state (total phosphorus, while the meiofaunal abundance and production along the trophic spectrum displayed a humped-shape distribution, with maximum values measured in the mesotrophic Lake Erken (1324 ind cm-2 and 2249 mg DW cm-2 y-1. Nematodes were the dominant meiofaunal group in the epilithon of all three lakes, accounting for up to 58% in abundance, 33% in biomass and 55% in production of the whole meiofaunal community. However, their relative importance tended to decrease with increasing trophic state. Beside nematodes, rotifers, oligochaetes, copepods and tardigrades were also found in large numbers in the epilithon. Overall, the results demonstrated that, due to their high abundance, biomass, and production, meiofaunal organisms play an important role in epilithic communities.

  2. Trophic web structure and ecosystem attributes of a temperate estuarine system (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva García-Seoane

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Estuaries are among the most productive ecosystems and simultaneously among the most threatened by conflicting human activities, which damage their ecological functions. Describing and attempting to understand the structure and functioning of estuaries is an essential step for maintaining and restoring the quality of estuarine ecosystems. The objective of this study was to obtain insights into the ecosystem structure and functioning of Ria de Aveiro. The study area is a coastal lagoon located on the Northwest Atlantic coast of Portugal, which is connected to the sea through an artificial channel. The ECOPATH software was used to create a static balanced trophic food web model of the tidal part of Ria de Aveiro. The model considers 26 functional groups, including birds, fish, invertebrates, seagrasses, zooplankton, phytoplankton and detritus. Few adjustments were necessary for the input parameters because most of the data were based on direct observations or compiled from literature based on the study site. The trophic interactions within the food web of Riade Aveiro and the transference of energy between functional groups were quantitatively represented. Finally, the keystone index was defined for each functional group.

  3. Vacuum therapy of trophic ulcer of lower extremities, presented in patients with DFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yurkova R.A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available the article has analyzed the results of treatment of 67 patients with diabetic foot syndrome (DFS, complicated by feet trophic ulcers, using the vacuum bandages. Patients were divided into 2 groups: the control group had a traditional treatment and the studied one had vacuum bandages applied to the trophic ulcers. The results confirmed an assured decrease in the duration of patients’ treatment and hospitalization in the hospital.

  4. Reorganization of a marine trophic network along an inshore-offshore gradient due to stronger pelagic-benthic coupling in coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Dorothée; Lefebvre, Sébastien; Cachera, Marie; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Recent theoretical considerations have highlighted the importance of the pelagic-benthic coupling in marine food webs. In continental shelf seas, it was hypothesized that the trophic network structure may change along an inshore-offshore gradient due to weakening of the pelagic-benthic coupling from coastal to offshore areas. We tested this assumption empirically using the eastern English Channel (EEC) as a case study. We sampled organisms from particulate organic matter to predatory fishes and used baseline-corrected carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) to determine their trophic position. First, hierarchical clustering on δ13C and δ15N coupled to bootstrapping and estimates of the relative contribution of pelagic and benthic carbon sources to consumers' diet showed that, at mesoscale, the EEC food web forms a continuum of four trophic levels with trophic groups spread across a pelagic and a benthic trophic pathway. Second, based on the same methods, a discrete approach examined changes in the local food web structure across three depth strata in order to investigate the inshore-offshore gradient. It showed stronger pelagic-benthic coupling in shallow coastal areas mostly due to a reorganization of the upper consumers relative to the two trophic pathways, benthic carbon sources being available to pelagic consumers and, reciprocally, pelagic sources becoming accessible to benthic species. Third a continuous approach examined changes in the mean and variance of upper consumers' δ13C and δ15N with depth. It detected a significant decrease in δ13C variance and a significant increase in δ15N variance as depth increases. A theoretical two-source mixing model showed that an inshore-offshore decrease in the pelagic-benthic coupling was a sufficient condition to produce the δ13C variance pattern, thus supporting the conclusions of the discrete approach. These results suggest that environmental gradients such as the inshore-offshore one should

  5. Trophic enrichment factors for blood serum in the European badger (Meles meles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Kelly

    Full Text Available Ecologists undertaking stable isotopic analyses of animal diets require trophic enrichment factors (TEFs for the specific animal tissues that they are studying. Such basic data are available for a small number of species, so values from trophically or phylogenetically similar species are often substituted for missing values. By feeding a controlled diet to captive European badgers (Meles meles we determined TEFs for carbon and nitrogen in blood serum. TEFs for nitrogen and carbon in blood serum were +3.0 ± 0.4‰ and +0.4 ± 0.1‰ respectively. The TEFs for serum in badgers are notably different from those published for the red fox (Vulpes vulpes. There is currently no data for TEFs in the serum of other mustelid species. Our data show that species sharing similar niches (red fox do not provide adequate proxy values for TEFs of badgers. Our findings emphasise the importance of having species-specific data when undertaking trophic studies using stable isotope analysis.

  6. Uncovering trophic positions and food resources of soil animals using bulk natural stable isotope composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potapov, Anton M; Tiunov, Alexei V; Scheu, Stefan

    2018-06-19

    Despite the major importance of soil biota in nutrient and energy fluxes, interactions in soil food webs are poorly understood. Here we provide an overview of recent advances in uncovering the trophic structure of soil food webs using natural variations in stable isotope ratios. We discuss approaches of application, normalization and interpretation of stable isotope ratios along with methodological pitfalls. Analysis of published data from temperate forest ecosystems is used to outline emerging concepts and perspectives in soil food web research. In contrast to aboveground and aquatic food webs, trophic fractionation at the basal level of detrital food webs is large for carbon and small for nitrogen stable isotopes. Virtually all soil animals are enriched in 13 C as compared to plant litter. This 'detrital shift' likely reflects preferential uptake of 13 C-enriched microbial biomass and underlines the importance of microorganisms, in contrast to dead plant material, as a major food resource for the soil animal community. Soil organic matter is enriched in 15 N and 13 C relative to leaf litter. Decomposers inhabiting mineral soil layers therefore might be enriched in 15 N resulting in overlap in isotope ratios between soil-dwelling detritivores and litter-dwelling predators. By contrast, 13 C content varies little between detritivores in upper litter and in mineral soil, suggesting that they rely on similar basal resources, i.e. little decomposed organic matter. Comparing vertical isotope gradients in animals and in basal resources can be a valuable tool to assess trophic interactions and dynamics of organic matter in soil. As indicated by stable isotope composition, direct feeding on living plant material as well as on mycorrhizal fungi is likely rare among soil invertebrates. Plant carbon is taken up predominantly by saprotrophic microorganisms and channelled to higher trophic levels of the soil food web. However, feeding on photoautotrophic microorganisms and non

  7. Trophic structure and biomass distribution of macrobenthos on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trophic structure and biomass of macrobenthos on both wave-sheltered, rocky intertidal shores and semi-exposed ones at seven localities in the Tsitsikamma Marine Protected Area were compared. In the Cochlear zone and entire intertidal (Cochlear- and Balanoid zones combined) biomass values of invertebrates and ...

  8. Table scraps: inter-trophic food provisioning by pumas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbroch, L Mark; Wittmer, Heiko U

    2012-10-23

    Large carnivores perform keystone ecological functions through direct predation, or indirectly, through food subsidies to scavengers or trophic cascades driven by their influence on the distributions of their prey. Pumas (Puma concolor) are an elusive, cryptic species difficult to study and little is known about their inter-trophic-level interactions in natural communities. Using new GPS technology, we discovered that pumas in Patagonia provided 232 ± 31 kg of edible meat/month/100 km(2) to near-threatened Andean condors (Vultur gryphus) and other members of a diverse scavenger community. This is up to 3.1 times the contributions by wolves (Canis lupus) to communities in Yellowstone National Park, USA, and highlights the keystone role large, solitary felids play in natural systems. These findings are more pertinent than ever, for managers increasingly advocate controlling pumas and other large felids to bolster prey populations and mitigate concerns over human and livestock safety, without a full understanding of the potential ecological consequences of their actions.

  9. Subcellular controls of mercury trophic transfer to a marine fish

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang Fei [Department of Biology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), Clear Water Bay, Kowloon (Hong Kong); Wang Wenxiong, E-mail: wwang@ust.hk [Department of Biology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), Clear Water Bay, Kowloon (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    Different behaviors of inorganic mercury [Hg(II)] and methylmercury (MeHg) during trophic transfer along the marine food chain have been widely reported, but the mechanisms are not fully understood. The bioavailability of ingested mercury, quantified by assimilation efficiency (AE), was investigated in a marine fish, the grunt Terapon jarbua, based on mercury subcellular partitioning in prey and purified subcellular fractions of prey tissues. The subcellular distribution of Hg(II) differed substantially among prey types, with cellular debris being a major (49-57% in bivalves) or secondary (14-19% in other prey) binding pool. However, MeHg distribution varied little among prey types, with most MeHg (43-79%) in heat-stable protein (HSP) fraction. The greater AEs measured for MeHg (90-94%) than for Hg(II) (23-43%) confirmed the findings of previous studies. Bioavailability of each purified subcellular fraction rather than the proposed trophically available metal (TAM) fraction could better elucidate mercury assimilation difference. Hg(II) associated with insoluble fraction (e.g. cellular debris) was less bioavailable than that in soluble fraction (e.g. HSP). However, subcellular distribution was shown to be less important for MeHg, with each fraction having comparable MeHg bioavailability. Subcellular distribution in prey should be an important consideration in mercury trophic transfer studies.

  10. Interannual variability in lower trophic levels on the Alaskan Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Sonia D.; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Danielson, Seth; Hopcroft, Russell; Coyle, Kenneth; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail

    2018-01-01

    This study describes results from the first 16 years of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) program that has sampled the lower trophic levels (restricted to larger, hard-shelled phytoplankton and robust zooplankton taxa) on the Alaskan shelf. Sampling took place along transects from the open ocean across the shelf (to the entrance to Prince William Sound from 2000 to 2003 and into Cook Inlet from 2004 to 2015) to provide plankton abundance data, spring through autumn of each year. We document interannual variability in concentration and composition of the plankton community of the region over this time period. At least in part and through correlative relationships, this can be attributed to changes in the physical environment, particularly direct and indirect effects of temperature. For example; spring mixed layer depth is shown to influence the timing of the spring diatom peak and warmer years are biased towards smaller copepod species. A significant positive relationship between temperature, diatom abundance and zooplankton biomass existed from 2000 to 2013 but was not present in the warm years of 2014 and 2015. These results suggest that anomalous warming events, such as the "heat wave" of 2014-2015, could fundamentally influence typical lower trophic level patterns, possibly altering trophic interactions.

  11. Subcellular controls of mercury trophic transfer to a marine fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang Fei; Wang Wenxiong

    2010-01-01

    Different behaviors of inorganic mercury [Hg(II)] and methylmercury (MeHg) during trophic transfer along the marine food chain have been widely reported, but the mechanisms are not fully understood. The bioavailability of ingested mercury, quantified by assimilation efficiency (AE), was investigated in a marine fish, the grunt Terapon jarbua, based on mercury subcellular partitioning in prey and purified subcellular fractions of prey tissues. The subcellular distribution of Hg(II) differed substantially among prey types, with cellular debris being a major (49-57% in bivalves) or secondary (14-19% in other prey) binding pool. However, MeHg distribution varied little among prey types, with most MeHg (43-79%) in heat-stable protein (HSP) fraction. The greater AEs measured for MeHg (90-94%) than for Hg(II) (23-43%) confirmed the findings of previous studies. Bioavailability of each purified subcellular fraction rather than the proposed trophically available metal (TAM) fraction could better elucidate mercury assimilation difference. Hg(II) associated with insoluble fraction (e.g. cellular debris) was less bioavailable than that in soluble fraction (e.g. HSP). However, subcellular distribution was shown to be less important for MeHg, with each fraction having comparable MeHg bioavailability. Subcellular distribution in prey should be an important consideration in mercury trophic transfer studies.

  12. Effects of trophic skewing of species richness on ecosystem functioning in a diverse marine community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela L Reynolds

    Full Text Available Widespread overharvesting of top consumers of the world's ecosystems has "skewed" food webs, in terms of biomass and species richness, towards a generally greater domination at lower trophic levels. This skewing is exacerbated in locations where exotic species are predominantly low-trophic level consumers such as benthic macrophytes, detritivores, and filter feeders. However, in some systems where numerous exotic predators have been added, sometimes purposefully as in many freshwater systems, food webs are skewed in the opposite direction toward consumer dominance. Little is known about how such modifications to food web topology, e.g., changes in the ratio of predator to prey species richness, affect ecosystem functioning. We experimentally measured the effects of trophic skew on production in an estuarine food web by manipulating ratios of species richness across three trophic levels in experimental mesocosms. After 24 days, increasing macroalgal richness promoted both plant biomass and grazer abundance, although the positive effect on plant biomass disappeared in the presence of grazers. The strongest trophic cascade on the experimentally stocked macroalgae emerged in communities with a greater ratio of prey to predator richness (bottom-rich food webs, while stronger cascades on the accumulation of naturally colonizing algae (primarily microalgae with some early successional macroalgae that recruited and grew in the mesocosms generally emerged in communities with greater predator to prey richness (the more top-rich food webs. These results suggest that trophic skewing of species richness and overall changes in food web topology can influence marine community structure and food web dynamics in complex ways, emphasizing the need for multitrophic approaches to understand the consequences of marine extinctions and invasions.

  13. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  14. Predictive models of benthic invertebrate methylmercury in Ontario and Quebec lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rennie, M.D.; Collins, N.C.; Purchase, C.F. [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Tremblay, A. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2005-12-01

    In both North America and Europe, high levels of mercury have been reported in lakes that do not receive obvious point-source mercury inputs. Concern over high contaminant levels in waterfowl and fish have prompted several government-issued advisories on safe levels of fish and wildlife intake for humans. Although the primary source of mercury in pristine lakes is directly through atmospheric deposition or indirectly via terrestrial runoff, there can be large variations in mercury concentrations in organisms in neighbouring lakes. Therefore, factors other than atmospheric deposition must influence bioavailability and accumulation of mercury in aquatic organisms. For that reason, multivariate analyses on benthic invertebrate methylmercury concentrations and water chemistry from 12 Quebec water bodies were used to construct simple, predictive models of benthic invertebrate methylmercury in 23 lakes in Ontario and Quebec. The study showed that the primary means of mercury accumulation for organisms in higher trophic positions is dietary through the assimilation of organic forms of mercury, principally methylmercury. The data from 12 Quebec water bodies, revealed that benthic invertebrates in reservoirs have higher methylmercury than those in natural lakes, and methylmercury is generally higher in predatory invertebrates. Reservoir age was found to correlate with fish, benthic invertebrate methylmercury, and also with lake chemistry parameters such as pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The objective of the study was to determine the appropriate level of taxonomic or functional resolution for generating benthic invertebrate methylmercury models, and to identify which environmental variables correlate most with benthic invertebrate methylmercury. Empirical models using these correlations were constructed and their predicted efficiency was tested by cross-validation. In addition, the effect of exposure to fish digestive enzymes on invertebrate methylmercury was

  15. Influence of relative trophic position and carbon source on selenium bioaccumulation in turtles from a coal fly-ash spill site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dyke, James U.; Hopkins, William A.; Jackson, Brian P.

    2013-01-01

    Selenium (Se) is a bioaccumulative constituent of coal fly-ash that can disrupt reproduction of oviparous wildlife. In food webs, the greatest enrichment of Se occurs at the lowest trophic levels, making it readily bioavailable to higher consumers. However, subsequent enrichment at higher trophic levels is less pronounced, leading to mixed tendencies for Se to biomagnify. We used stable isotopes ( 15 N and 13 C) in claws to infer relative trophic positions and relative carbon sources, respectively, of seven turtle species near the site of a recently-remediated coal fly-ash spill. We then tested whether Se concentrations differed with relative trophic position or relative carbon source. We did not observe a strong relationship between δ 15 N and Se concentration. Instead, selenium concentrations decreased with increasing δ 13 C among species. Therefore, in an assemblage of closely-related aquatic vertebrates, relative carbon source was a better predictor of Se bioaccumulation than was relative trophic position. -- Highlights: •Stable isotope results showed trophic separation among turtle species. •Selenium concentrations did not biomagnify with relative trophic position. •Selenium concentrations decreased with increasing δ 13 C among species. •Carbon source influenced Se bioaccumulation in an assemblage of related vertebrates. -- Stable isotope differences indicate that claw selenium concentrations differ among relative carbon sources, and not among relative trophic positions, in an assemblage of aquatic turtles

  16. Wolf presence and increased willow consumption by Yellowstone elk: implications for trophic cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Christianson, David

    2009-09-01

    Recent increases in the height and growth ring width of willow (Salix spp.) and other woody plants in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) have been attributed to a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade from wolves (Canis lupus) to elk (Cervus elaphus) to willows. This hypothesis predicts that individual elk consume less willow in response to the presence of wolves, but this prediction has not been directly tested with data from elk. We collected 727 fecal samples from elk in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the GYE over three winters and used microhistological methods to quantify the proportion of willow in each sample. We then tested the effect of wolf presence on willow consumption by elk, controlling for the effects of snow conditions, sex, and habitat type. During the period of study, 8-17 wolves occupied the study area, and wolves were locally present on 49% of 260 sampling days, stratified at two-week intervals across three drainages. Over the three years combined, willow consumption was related to snow conditions, wolf presence, and a wolf X sex interaction. As expected, willow consumption increased with deeper and less penetrable snow, and this effect was strong. Contrary to expectation, willow consumption increased in the presence of wolves. As with other aspects of antipredator behavior, wolves had different effects on willow consumption by males and females. Finally, we aggregated the data to estimate winter-long mean willow consumption within each drainage; at this broader scale, willow consumption again increased as predation risk increased. In summary, willow consumption was more strongly affected by snow conditions than by the presence of wolves. Interactions between elk and willow were affected by wolves, but not as predicted by the hypothesis that wolf presence favors willow release through a reduction in the selection of willow by individual elk. If a trophic cascade is operating, our results suggest that a decline in the size of the elk

  17. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  18. Convergent, Parallel and Correlated Evolution of Trophic Morphologies in the Subfamily Schizothoracinae from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Delin; Chao, Yan; Guo, Songchang; Zhao, Lanying; Li, Taiping; Wei, Fulei; Zhao, Xinquan

    2012-01-01

    Schizothoracine fishes distributed in the water system of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) and adjacent areas are characterized by being highly adaptive to the cold and hypoxic environment of the plateau, as well as by a high degree of diversity in trophic morphology due to resource polymorphisms. Although convergent and parallel evolution are prevalent in the organisms of the QTP, it remains unknown whether similar evolutionary patterns have occurred in the schizothoracine fishes. Here, we constructed for the first time a tentative molecular phylogeny of the schizothoracine fishes based on the complete sequences of the cytochrome b gene. We employed this molecular phylogenetic framework to examine the evolution of trophic morphologies. We used Pagel's maximum likelihood method to estimate the evolutionary associations of trophic morphologies and food resource use. Our results showed that the molecular and published morphological phylogenies of Schizothoracinae are partially incongruent with respect to some intergeneric relationships. The phylogenetic results revealed that four character states of five trophic morphologies and of food resource use evolved at least twice during the diversification of the subfamily. State transitions are the result of evolutionary patterns including either convergence or parallelism or both. Furthermore, our analyses indicate that some characters of trophic morphologies in the Schizothoracinae have undergone correlated evolution, which are somewhat correlated with different food resource uses. Collectively, our results reveal new examples of convergent and parallel evolution in the organisms of the QTP. The adaptation to different trophic niches through the modification of trophic morphologies and feeding behaviour as found in the schizothoracine fishes may account for the formation and maintenance of the high degree of diversity and radiations in fish communities endemic to QTP. PMID:22470515

  19. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  20. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  1. Responses of trophic structure and zooplankton community to salinity and temperature in Tibetan lakes: Implication for the effect of climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qiuqi; Xu, Lei; Hou, Juzhi; Liu, Zhengwen; Jeppesen, Erik; Han, Bo-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Warming has pronounced effects on lake ecosystems, either directly by increased temperatures or indirectly by a change in salinity. We investigated the current status of zooplankton communities and trophic structure in 45 Tibetan lakes along a 2300 m altitude and a 76 g/l salinity gradient. Freshwater to hyposaline lakes mainly had three trophic levels: phytoplankton, small zooplankton and fish/Gammarus, while mesosaline to hypersaline lakes only had two: phytoplankton and large zooplankton. Zooplankton species richness declined significantly with salinity, but did not relate with temperature. Furthermore, the decline in species richness with salinity in lakes with two trophic levels was much less abrupt than in lakes with three trophic levels. The structural variation of the zooplankton community depended on the length of the food chain, and was significantly explained by salinity as the critical environmental variable. The zooplankton community shifted from dominance of copepods and small cladoceran species in the lakes with low salinity and three trophic levels to large saline filter-feeding phyllopod species in those lakes with high salinity and two trophic levels. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio was positively related with temperature in two-trophic-level systems and vice versa in three-trophic-level systems. As the Tibetan Plateau is warming about three times faster than the global average, our results imply that warming could have a considerable impact on the structure and function of Tibetan lake ecosystems, either via indirect effects of salinization/desalinization on species richness, composition and trophic structure or through direct effects of water temperature on trophic interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Trophic calculations reveal the mechanism of population-level variation in mercury concentrations between marine ecosystems: Case studies of two polar seabirds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brasso, Rebecka L.; Polito, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Ecosystem-specific baseline and consumer δ 15 N paired for population-specific trophic level. • Source of population-level variation in mercury exposure identified in two seabirds. • High mercury and trophic position suggests trophic driver of population-level variation. • Trophic similarities, differing mercury reveals geographic differences in bioavailability. -- Abstract: The incorporation of quantitative trophic level analysis in ecotoxicological studies provides explanatory power to identify the factors, trophic or environmental, driving population-level variation in mercury exposure at large geographic scales. In the Antarctic marine ecosystem, mercury concentrations and stable isotope values in Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) were compared between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea. Correcting tissue δ 15 N values for baseline δ 15 N values revealed population-level differences in trophic position which contributes to differences in mercury. Data from Thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were synthesized from published values from Baffin Bay and Svalbard to demonstrate the utility of baseline δ 15 N values in identifying differences in environmental mercury exposure independent of diet. Here, we demonstrate the importance of calculating population-specific trophic level data to uncover the source of variation in mercury concentrations between geographically distinct populations of marine predators

  3. Influence of rainfall on the trophic status of a brazilian semiarid reservoir - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v35i4.18261

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Ítalo Barbosa Chaves

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the trophic conditions of the reservoir located in the urban perimeter of the town General Sampaio, semiarid region of the Ceará State, Brazil and its relationship with seasonal variation in rainfall between 2010 and 2011. It was obtained data for Secchi disk transparency, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a to calculate the Trophic State Index (TSI, as well as rainfall data. The Trophic State Index (TSI proposed by Carlson (1977 and modified by Toledo Junior (1990 was used to test the influence of the seasonal variation in rainfall on hydrological variables and on trophic conditions of the reservoir in 2010 and 2011. There was seasonal variability in variables analyzed between climatic periods (rainy and dry and trophic conditions determined through the trophic index indicated conditions ranging from oligotrophic to eutrophic during the two years analyzed in this reservoir. Under these circumstances, one may conclude that the trophic status is related to seasonal fluctuations in the hydrology of the system controlled by rainfall, which is a common feature of semiarid regions.

  4. Trophic relationships of hake ( Merluccius capensis and M ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trophic relationships of two hake species (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) and three shark species (Centrophorus squamosus, Deania calcea and D. profundorum) were investigated using nitrogen and carbon stable isotope signatures (δ15N and δ13C) of their muscle tissues. The sharks were more enriched in ...

  5. Trophic structure of fish fauna along the longitudinal gradient of a first-order rural stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jardel Nimet

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim: This study evaluated the trophic structure of the fish assemblage along the longitudinal gradient of a first-order rural stream. Methods Fish were sampled by electrofishing technique in December 2007, September 2008 and March 2009, at three stretch of the Itiz stream (headwater, middle and mouth. We sampled 1,255 individuals relating to 18 species. The categorization of trophic guilds was based on stomach content data of 1,096 individuals, analyzed according to the volumetric method, except for four species, which were classified according to the literature. To test the hypothesis of differences in the richness, abundance and biomass of trophic guilds along the headwater-mouth gradient, it was performed non-parametric statistical analysis of the dietary data. Was also calculated, the amplitude of trophic niche (Levins's index for each guild. To summarize the composition and abundance of the trophic guilds along the longitudinal gradient, we applied a non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS. Results We registered seven guilds: herbivorous, detritivorous, aquatic insectivorous, terrestrial insectivorous, invertivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous, the latter was exclusive to headwater and middle stretches. The omnivorous guild was not recorded in the headwater. Through PERMANOVA analysis it was found that the species richness of more specialized guilds (detritivorous and insectivorous terrestrial and of generalist invertivorous increased, while less specialized guilds like aquatic insectivorous and herbivorous, decrease significantly in headwater-mouth direction. Except by the non-expected increase of insectivorous terrestrial and decrease of herbivorous downstream, the non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS identified longitudinal variations in abundance and biomass of the guilds that agree with general patterns of fish guilds distribution along environmental gradients. Conclusion These results suggest that the influence of

  6. Modelling exposure of oceanic higher trophic-level consumers to polychlorinated biphenyls: pollution 'hotspots' in relation to mass mortality events of marine mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handoh, Itsuki C; Kawai, Toru

    2014-08-30

    Marine mammals in the past mass mortality events may have been susceptible to infection because their immune systems were suppressed through the bioaccumulation of environmental pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). We compiled mortality event data sets of 33 marine mammal species, and employed a Finely-Advanced Transboundary Environmental model (FATE) to model the exposure of the global fish community to PCB congeners, in order to define critical exposure levels (CELs) of PCBs above which mass mortality events are likely to occur. Our modelling approach enabled us to describe the mass mortality events in the context of exposure of higher-trophic consumers to PCBs and to identify marine pollution 'hotspots' such as the Mediterranean Sea and north-western European coasts. We demonstrated that the CELs can be applied to quantify a chemical pollution Planetary Boundary, under which a safe operating space for marine mammals and humanity can exist. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Analyzing the trophic link between the mesopelagic microbial loop and zooplankton from observed depth profiles of bacteria and protozoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tanaka

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognized that organic carbon exported to the ocean aphotic layer is significantly consumed by heterotrophic organisms such as bacteria and zooplankton in the mesopelagic layer. However, very little is known for the trophic link between bacteria and zooplankton or the function of the microbial loop in this layer. In the northwestern Mediterranean, recent studies have shown that viruses, bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, and ciliates distribute down to 2000 m with group-specific depth-dependent decreases, and that bacterial production decreases with depth down to 1000 m. Here we show that such data can be analyzed using a simple steady-state food chain model to quantify the carbon flow from bacteria to zooplankton over the mesopelagic layer. The model indicates that bacterial mortality by viruses is similar to or 1.5 times greater than that by heterotrophic nanoflagellates, and that heterotrophic nanoflagellates transfer little of bacterial production to higher trophic levels.

  8. Macrophytes shape trophic niche variation among generalist fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Vejříková

    Full Text Available Generalist species commonly have a fundamental role in ecosystems as they can integrate spatially distinct habitats and food-web compartments, as well as control the composition, abundance and behavior of organisms at different trophic levels. Generalist populations typically consist of specialized individuals, but the potential for and hence degree of individual niche variation can be largely determined by habitat complexity. We compared individual niche variation within three generalist fishes between two comparable lakes in the Czech Republic differing in macrophyte cover, i.e. macrophyte-rich Milada and macrophyte-poor Most. We tested the hypothesis that large individual niche variation among generalist fishes is facilitated by the presence of macrophytes, which provides niches and predation shelter for fish and their prey items. Based on results from stable nitrogen (δ15N and carbon (δ13C isotopic mixing models, perch (Perca fluviatilis L. and rudd (Scardinius erythrophthalmus (L. showed larger individual variation (i.e., variance in trophic position in Milada as compared to Most, whereas no significant between-lake differences were observed for roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.. Contrary to our hypothesis, all the three species showed significantly lower individual variation in the relative reliance on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most. Rudd relied significantly more whereas perch and roach relied less on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most, likely due to prevalent herbivory by rudd and prevalent zooplanktivory by perch and roach in the macrophyte-rich Milada as compared to macrophyte-poor Most. Our study demonstrates how the succession of macrophyte vegetation, via its effects on the physical and biological complexity of the littoral zone and on the availability of small prey fish and zooplankton, can strongly influence individual niche variation among generalist fishes with different ontogenetic trajectories, and hence

  9. Macrophytes shape trophic niche variation among generalist fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vejřík, Lukáš; Šmejkal, Marek; Čech, Martin; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Kiljunen, Mikko; Peterka, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    Generalist species commonly have a fundamental role in ecosystems as they can integrate spatially distinct habitats and food-web compartments, as well as control the composition, abundance and behavior of organisms at different trophic levels. Generalist populations typically consist of specialized individuals, but the potential for and hence degree of individual niche variation can be largely determined by habitat complexity. We compared individual niche variation within three generalist fishes between two comparable lakes in the Czech Republic differing in macrophyte cover, i.e. macrophyte-rich Milada and macrophyte-poor Most. We tested the hypothesis that large individual niche variation among generalist fishes is facilitated by the presence of macrophytes, which provides niches and predation shelter for fish and their prey items. Based on results from stable nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic mixing models, perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and rudd (Scardinius erythrophthalmus (L.)) showed larger individual variation (i.e., variance) in trophic position in Milada as compared to Most, whereas no significant between-lake differences were observed for roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)). Contrary to our hypothesis, all the three species showed significantly lower individual variation in the relative reliance on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most. Rudd relied significantly more whereas perch and roach relied less on littoral food resources in Milada than in Most, likely due to prevalent herbivory by rudd and prevalent zooplanktivory by perch and roach in the macrophyte-rich Milada as compared to macrophyte-poor Most. Our study demonstrates how the succession of macrophyte vegetation, via its effects on the physical and biological complexity of the littoral zone and on the availability of small prey fish and zooplankton, can strongly influence individual niche variation among generalist fishes with different ontogenetic trajectories, and hence the overall

  10. Trophic relationships between macroinvertebrates and fish in a pampean lowland stream (Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María V. López van Oosterom

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The diet and trophic relationships between the macroinvertebrates Phyllogomphoides joaquini Rodrigues Capítulo, 1992 and Coenagrionidae (Odonata, Chironomidae (Diptera, Diplodon delodontus (Lamarck, 1919 (Bivalvia: Hyriidae, and Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck, 1822 (Gastropoda: Ampulariidae and the fishes Pimelodella laticeps Eigenmann, 1917 (Heptapteridae and Bryconamericus iheringii (Boulenger, 1887 (Characidae in a temperate lowland lotic system in Argentina were assessed on the basis of gut contents and stable-isotope analyses. The feeding strategies were analyzed by the AMUNDSEN method. Relative food items contribution for the taxa studied indicated a generalist-type trophic strategy. In macroinvertebrates, in general, the values of stable isotope confirmed the result of the analysis of gut contents. With the fish, stable-isotope analysis demonstrated that both species are predators, although B. iheringii exhibited a more omnivorous behaviour. These feeding studies allowed us to determine the trophic relationships among taxa studied. Detritus and diatoms were a principal source of food for all the macroinvertebrates studied. In La Choza stream the particulate organic matter is a major no limited food resource, has a significant influence upon the community.

  11. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate...

  12. Assessing Trophic Position and Mercury Accumulation in Sanpping Turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study determined the trophic position and the total mercury concentrations of snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) captured from 26 freshwater sites in Rhode Island. Turtles were captured in baited wire cages, and a non-lethal sampling technique was used in which tips of ...

  13. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  14. Trophic level stability-inducing effects of predaceous early juvenile fish in an estuarine mesocosm study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Wasserman

    Full Text Available Classically, estuarine planktonic research has focussed largely on the physico-chemical drivers of community assemblages leaving a paucity of information on important biological interactions.Within the context of trophic cascades, various treatments using in situ mesocosms were established in a closed estuary to highlight the importance of predation in stabilizing estuarine plankton abundances. Through either the removal (filtration or addition of certain planktonic groups, five different trophic systems were established. These treatments contained varied numbers of trophic levels and thus different "predators" at the top of the food chain. The abundances of zooplankton (copepod and polychaete, ciliate, micro-flagellate, nano-flagellate and bacteria were investigated in each treatment, over time. The reference treatment containing apex zooplanktivores (early juvenile mullet and plankton at natural densities mimicked a natural, stable state of an estuary. Proportional variability (PV and coefficient of variation (CV of temporal abundances were calculated for each taxon and showed that apex predators in this experimental ecosystem, when compared to the other systems, induced stability. The presence of these predators therefore had consequences for multiple trophic levels, consistent with trophic cascade theory.PV and CV proved useful indices for comparing stability. Apex predators exerted a stabilizing pressure through feeding on copepods and polychaetes which cascaded through the ciliates, micro-flagellates, nano-flagellates and bacteria. When compared with treatments without apex predators, the role of predation in structuring planktonic communities in closed estuaries was highlighted.

  15. Species co-occurrence affects the trophic interactions of two juvenile reef shark species in tropical lagoon nurseries in Moorea (French Polynesia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matich, Philip; Kiszka, Jeremy J; Mourier, Johann; Planes, Serge; Heithaus, Michael R

    2017-06-01

    Food web structure is shaped by interactions within and across trophic levels. As such, understanding how the presence and absence of predators, prey, and competitors affect species foraging patterns is important for predicting the consequences of changes in species abundances, distributions, and behaviors. Here, we used plasma δ 13 C and δ 15 N values from juvenile blacktip reef sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) and juvenile sicklefin lemon sharks (Negaprion acutidens) to investigate how species co-occurrence affects their trophic interactions in littoral waters of Moorea, French Polynesia. Co-occurrence led to isotopic niche partitioning among sharks within nurseries, with significant increases in δ 15 N values among sicklefin lemon sharks, and significant decreases in δ 15 N among blacktip reef sharks. Niche segregation likely promotes coexistence of these two predators during early years of growth and development, but data do not suggest coexistence affects life history traits, such as body size, body condition, and ontogenetic niche shifts. Plasticity in trophic niches among juvenile blacktip reef sharks and sicklefin lemon sharks also suggests these predators are able to account for changes in community structure, resource availability, and intra-guild competition, and may fill similar functional roles in the absence of the other species, which is important as environmental change and human impacts persist in coral reef ecosystems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Dilution of 210Pb by organic sedimentation in lakes of different trophic states, and application to studies of sediment-water interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binford, M.W.; Brenner, M.

    1986-01-01

    Lake sediments reflect conditions in the water column and can be used for rapid, integrative measurements of limnological variables. Examination of 210 Pb-dated cores from 12 Florida lakes of widely differing trophic state (expressed as Carlson's trophic state index: TSI) shows that net accumulation rate of organic matter is related to primary productivity in the water column. In 26 other lakes the activity of unsupported 210 Pb g -1 organic matter in surficial sediments is inversely related to trophic state and, therefore, to organic accumulation rate. From this observation, the authors develop a new method that uses fallout 210 Pb as a dilution tracer to calculate net sedimentary accumulation rates of any material in surface mud. They demonstrate strong relationships between net loss rate of biologically important materials (C, N, P, and pigments) and their respective water concentrations (expressed as TSI). Multiple regression models incorporating net sediment accumulation rates of all four variables explain up to 70% of the lake-to-lake variation of TSI. The 210 Pb-dilution method has application for studies for material cycling, paleolimnology, and sediment accumulation processes

  17. Trophic ecology and food consumption of fishes in a hypersaline tropical lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida-Silva, P H; Tubino, R A; Zambrano, L C; Hunder, D A; Garritano, S R; Monteiro-Neto, C

    2015-06-01

    This study evaluated the trophic ecology (diet composition, trophic strategy, similarities and overlap between species, feeding period and food consumption) of six benthivorous fish species in Araruama Lagoon, the largest hypersaline tropical lagoon on the east coast of South America, with an area of 210 km(2) and an average salinity of 52. The burrfish Chilomycterus spinosus fed on Anomalocardia flexuosa shell deposits, ingesting associated fauna. The caitipa mojarra Diapterus rhombeus differed from all other species, having not only the highest proportions of algae and Nematoda, but also feeding on polychaete tentacles. The two mojarras Eucinostomus spp. showed similar trophic strategies, feeding mostly on Polychaeta. The corocoro grunt Orthopristis ruber also fed mainly on Polychaeta, but differed from Eucinostomus spp. in secondary items. The whitemouth croacker Micropogonias furnieri fed mainly on small Crustacea at night, showing a high number of secondary prey items with low frequencies and high prey-specific abundance. The daily food consumption (g food g(-1) fish mass) for Eucinostomus argenteus was 0·012 and was 0·031 and 0·027 for M. furnieri in two different sampling events. The diet similarities between Araruama Lagoon and other brackish and marine environments indicate that hypersalinity is not a predominant factor shaping the trophic ecology of fishes in this lagoon. The stability of hypersaline conditions, without a pronounced gradient, may explain the presence of several euryhaline fishes and invertebrates well adapted to this condition, resulting in a complex food web. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  18. Diet and trophic niche of Lithobates catesbeianus (Amphibia: Anura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson T. Leivas

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Lithobates catesbeianus (Shaw, 1802 is an invasive anuran introduced in Brazil that is associated with the displacement and the decline of populations of native species worldwide. There is evidence that biological invasions are facilitated by certain attributes of the invading species, for instance niche breath, and that invasive species have a broader ecological niche with respect to native ones. We designed a study to ascertain the temporal, ontogenetic, and sex differences in the niche dynamics of the American bullfrog. We sampled monthly from June 2008 to May 2009 in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil. For each individual, we gathered biometric and stomach content data. We then estimated the niche breath of the juveniles and adults, and compared it between the sexes. A total of 104 females and 77 males were sampled. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet, preying upon invertebrates and vertebrates. Even though the diet of the studied population varied seasonally, it did not differ between the sexes nor did it respond to biometric variables. Niche breadth was more restricted in the winter than in the autumn. The trophic niche of juveniles and adults did not overlap much when compared with the trophic niche overlap between males and females. Adult males and females had a considerable niche overlap, but females had a broader trophic niche than males in the winter and in the spring. These niche characteristics point to an opportunistic predation strategy that may have facilitated the process of invasion and establishment of this species in the study area.

  19. Short Communication: Growth of seaweed Eucheuma cottonii in multi trophic sea farming systems at Gerupuk Bay, Central Lombok, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUKIMAN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Sukiman, Faturrahman, Rohyani IS, Ahyadi H. 2014. Growth of seaweed Eucheuma cottonii in multi trophic sea farming systems at Gerupuk Bay, Central Lombok, Indonesia. Nusantara Bioscience 6: 82-85. Eucheuma cottonii is a seaweed commodity that has a high economic value because it contains compounds used as raw materials for industries. Various methods of seaweed farming have been developed, one of which is a system of cultivation Multi Trophic Sea Farming. This study aimed to analyze the growth of E. cottonii by observing the production of biomass in four trophic combinations in the system Multi Trophic Sea Farming. The study was conducted in the area of the marine aquaculture Gerupuk bay, Central Lombok, Indonesia. Experiments were performed on four plots cages with trophic combination treatment as follows: K1 (E. cottonii-lobster-abalone, K2 (E. cottonii-abalone-red carp, K3 (E. cottonii-abalone-grouper, and K4 (E. cottonii-abalone-pomfret fish. Seedling of E. cottonii weighing 50 g was tied to a rope and placed at a depth of 5 cm, 50 cm, 100 cm and 150 cm. Measurement of biomass production was done every ten days until the thirtieth day. The highest biomass production of E. cottonii was obtained in K3 trophic combination (E. cottonii-abalone-grouper fish with a depth of seedlings of 5 cm. The combination of K3 trophic is recommended for cultivation of seaweed in the MTSF system.

  20. Laboratory and field assessment of uranium trophic transfer efficiency in the crayfish Orconectes limosus fed the bivalve C. fluminea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Olivier; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2005-01-01

    At present, ecotoxicological information regarding the impact of natural uranium (U) on freshwater ecosystems via the trophic contamination route is scarce. We generated an experimental trophic food chain involving the prey species, Corbicula fluminea, and a predator, Orconectes limosus, for a 10-day and a 30-day feeding periods (food ration: one whole soft body/day/crayfish). We studied the efficiency of U trophic transfer and the distribution of U in the predator. During the test, we varied the quantity of dietary U (from beforehand contaminated bivalves at concentrations ranging from 0.9 ± 0.1 to 20.2 ± 9 μg/g fw provided to each crayfish over the 10 days) applying a daily feeding rate equal to 3.9 ± 0.8% fw. The efficiency of U trophic transfer from clams to crayfish varied between 1 and 13% depending on the prey exposure modalities. Accumulation of U was observed in the digestive gland but also in gills, in the muscle, and in the molt of the crayfish after trophic exposure treatments. Under high-level exposure conditions, the digestive gland was the main target-organ, however a significant accumulation was also observed in the stomach. With regard to low levels of trophic exposure, accumulation of U in gills, in the stomach, and in the digestive gland was of the same order of magnitude. Longer exposure period which incorporated a crayfish molt, resulted in a decrease of trophic transfer ratio and a modified U tissue distribution

  1. Unrevealing Parasitic Trophic Interactions—A Molecular Approach for Fluid-Feeding Fishes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine O. Bonato

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Fish diets have been traditionally studied through the direct visual identification of food items found in their stomachs. Stomach contents of Vandeliinae and Stegophilinae (family Trichomycteridae parasite catfishes, however, cannot be identified by usual optical methods due to their mucophagic, lepidophagic, or hematophagic diets, in such a way that the trophic interactions and the dynamics of food webs in aquatic systems involving these catfishes are mostly unknown. The knowledge about trophic interactions, including difficult relation between parasites and hosts, are crucial to understand the whole working of food webs. In this way, molecular markers can be useful to determine the truly hosts of these catfishes, proving a preference in their feeding behavior for specific organisms and not a generalist. Sequences of cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI were successfully extracted and amplified from mucus or scales found in the stomach contents of two species of stegophilines, Homodiaetus anisitsi, and Pseudostegophilus maculatus, to identify the host species. The two species were found to be obligatory mucus-feeders and occasionally lepidophagic. Selection of host species is associated to host behavior, being constituted mainly by substrate-sifting benthivores. Characiformes are preferred hosts, but host choice depends on what characiform species are available in their environments, usually corresponding to the most abundant species. This is the first time that host species of parasitic fishes bearing mucophagous habits are identified, and demonstrates the effectiveness of the extraction and amplification of mitochondrial DNA from the ingested mucus in gut contents. The molecular markers effectively allowed determine parasite preferences and helps in better understanding the food web and trophic interaction on which fish species are involved. Despite, the methodology applied here can be used for an infinitive of organisms improving ecological

  2. Fatty acid biomarkers: validation of food web and trophic markers using C-13-labelled fatty acids in juvenile sandeel ( Ammodytes tobianus )

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Anne Johanne Tang; St. John, Michael

    2004-01-01

    A key issue in marine science is parameterizing trophic interactions in marine food webs, thereby developing an understanding of the importance of top-down and bottom-up controls on populations of key trophic players. This study validates the utility of fatty acid food web and trophic markers usi......), respectively. Lack of temporal trends in nonlabelled fatty acids confirmed the conservative incorporation of labelled fatty acids by the fish.......A key issue in marine science is parameterizing trophic interactions in marine food webs, thereby developing an understanding of the importance of top-down and bottom-up controls on populations of key trophic players. This study validates the utility of fatty acid food web and trophic markers using...... C-13-labelled fatty acids to verify the conservative incorporation of fatty acid tracers by juvenile sandeel (Ammodytes tobianus) and assess their uptake, clearance, and metabolic turnover rates. Juvenile sandeel were fed for 16 days in the laboratory on a formulated diet enriched in (13)C16...

  3. Form and function of damselfish skulls: rapid and repeated evolution into a limited number of trophic niches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooper W James

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Damselfishes (Perciformes, Pomacentridae are a major component of coral reef communities, and the functional diversity of their trophic anatomy is an important constituent of the ecological morphology of these systems. Using shape analyses, biomechanical modelling, and phylogenetically based comparative methods, we examined the anatomy of damselfish feeding among all genera and trophic groups. Coordinate based shape analyses of anatomical landmarks were used to describe patterns of morphological diversity and determine positions of functional groups in a skull morphospace. These landmarks define the lever and linkage structures of the damselfish feeding system, and biomechanical analyses of this data were performed using the software program JawsModel4 in order to calculate the simple mechanical advantage (MA employed by different skull elements during feeding, and to compute kinematic transmission coefficients (KT that describe the efficiency with which angular motion is transferred through the complex linkages of damselfish skulls. Results Our results indicate that pomacentrid planktivores are significantly different from other damselfishes, that biting MA values and protrusion KT ratios are correlated with pomacentrid trophic groups more tightly than KT scores associated with maxillary rotation and gape angle, and that the MAs employed by their three biting muscles have evolved independently. Most of the biomechanical parameters examined have experienced low levels of phylogenetic constraint, which suggests that they have evolved quickly. Conclusion Joint morphological and biomechanical analyses of the same anatomical data provided two reciprocally illuminating arrays of information. Both analyses showed that the evolution of planktivory has involved important changes in pomacentrid functional morphology, and that the mechanics of upper jaw kinesis have been of great importance to the evolution of damselfish feeding. Our

  4. Form and function of damselfish skulls: rapid and repeated evolution into a limited number of trophic niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, W James; Westneat, Mark W

    2009-01-30

    Damselfishes (Perciformes, Pomacentridae) are a major component of coral reef communities, and the functional diversity of their trophic anatomy is an important constituent of the ecological morphology of these systems. Using shape analyses, biomechanical modelling, and phylogenetically based comparative methods, we examined the anatomy of damselfish feeding among all genera and trophic groups. Coordinate based shape analyses of anatomical landmarks were used to describe patterns of morphological diversity and determine positions of functional groups in a skull morphospace. These landmarks define the lever and linkage structures of the damselfish feeding system, and biomechanical analyses of this data were performed using the software program JawsModel4 in order to calculate the simple mechanical advantage (MA) employed by different skull elements during feeding, and to compute kinematic transmission coefficients (KT) that describe the efficiency with which angular motion is transferred through the complex linkages of damselfish skulls. Our results indicate that pomacentrid planktivores are significantly different from other damselfishes, that biting MA values and protrusion KT ratios are correlated with pomacentrid trophic groups more tightly than KT scores associated with maxillary rotation and gape angle, and that the MAs employed by their three biting muscles have evolved independently. Most of the biomechanical parameters examined have experienced low levels of phylogenetic constraint, which suggests that they have evolved quickly. Joint morphological and biomechanical analyses of the same anatomical data provided two reciprocally illuminating arrays of information. Both analyses showed that the evolution of planktivory has involved important changes in pomacentrid functional morphology, and that the mechanics of upper jaw kinesis have been of great importance to the evolution of damselfish feeding. Our data support a tight and biomechanically defined link

  5. Trait- and size-based descriptions of trophic links in freshwater food webs: current status and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Boukal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biotic interactions in aquatic communities are dominated by predation, and the distribution of trophic link strengths in aquatic food webs crucially impacts their dynamics and stability. Although individual body size explains a large proportion of variation in trophic link strengths in aquatic habitats, current predominately body size-based views can gain additional realism by incorporating further traits. Functional traits that potentially affect the strength of trophic links can be classified into three groups: i body size, ii traits that identify the spatiotemporal overlap between the predators and their prey, and iii predator foraging and prey vulnerability traits, which are readily available for many taxa. Relationship between these trait groups and trophic link strength may be further modified by population densities, habitat complexity, temperature and other abiotic factors. I propose here that this broader multi-trait framework can utilize concepts, ideas and existing data from research on metabolic ecology, ecomorphology, animal personalities and role of habitats in community structuring. The framework can be used to investigate non-additive effects of traits on trophic interactions, shed more light on the structuring of local food webs and evaluate the merits of taxonomic and functional group approaches in the description of predator-prey interactions. Development of trait- and size-based descriptions of food webs could be particularly fruitful in limnology given the relative paucity of well resolved datasets in standing waters. 

  6. Evaluation on Biofilter in Recirculating Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sumoharjo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture pays more attention as a bio-integrated food production system that serves as a model of sustainable aquaculture, minimizes waste discharge, increases diversity and yields multiple products. The objectives of this research were to analyze the efficiency of total ammonia nitrogen biofiltration and its effect on carrying capacity of fish rearing units. Pilot-scale bioreactor was designed with eight run-raceways (two meters of each that assembled in series. Race 1-3 were used to stock silky worm (Tubifex sp as detrivorous converter, then race 4-8 were used to plant three species of leaf-vegetable as photoautotrophic converters, i.e; spinach (Ipomoea reptana, green mustard (Brassica juncea and basil (Ocimum basilicum. The three plants were placed in randomized block design based on water flow direction. Mass balance of nutrient analysis, was applied to figure out the efficiency of bio-filtration and its effect on carrying capacity of rearing units. The result of the experiment showed that 86.5 % of total ammonia nitrogen removal was achieved in 32 days of culturing period. This efficiency able to support the carrying capacity of the fish tank up to 25.95 kg/lpm with maximum density was 62.69 kg/m3 of fish biomass productionDoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/ijse.4.2.2013.80-85 [How to cite this article: Sumoharjo, S.  and Maidie, A. (2013. Evaluation on Biofilter in Recirculating Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture.  International Journal of  Science and Engineering, 4(2,80-85. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/ijse.4.2.2013.80-85

  7. Variability in copepod trophic levels and feeding selectivity based on stable isotope analysis in Gwangyang Bay of the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mianrun; Kim, Dongyoung; Liu, Hongbin; Kang, Chang-Keun

    2018-04-01

    Trophic preference (i.e., food resources and trophic levels) of different copepod groups was assessed along a salinity gradient in the temperate estuarine Gwangyang Bay of Korea, based on seasonal investigation of taxonomic results in 2015 and stable isotope analysis incorporating multiple linear regression models. The δ13C and δ15N values of copepods in the bay displayed significant spatial heterogeneity as well as seasonal variations, which were indicated by their significant relationships with salinity and temperature, respectively. Both spatial and temporal variations reflected those in isotopic values of food sources. The major calanoid groups (marine calanoids and brackish water calanoids) had a mean trophic level of 2.2 relative to nanoplankton as the basal food source, similar to the bulk copepod assemblage; however, they had dissimilar food sources based on the different δ13C values. Calanoid isotopic values indicated a mixture of different genera including species with high δ15N values (e.g., Labidocera, Sinocalanus, and Tortanus), moderate values (Calanus sinicus, Centropages, Paracalanus, and Acartia), and relatively low δ15N values (Eurytemora pacifica and Pseudodiaptomus). Feeding preferences of different copepods probably explain these seasonal and spatial patterns of the community trophic niche. Bayesian mixing model calculations based on source materials of two size fractions of particulate organic matter (nanoplankton at simple energy flow of the planktonic food web of Gwangyang Bay: from primary producers (nanoplankton) and a mixture of primary producers and herbivores (microplankton) through omnivores (Acartia, Calanus, Centropages, and Paracalanus) and detritivores (Pseudodiaptomus, Eurytemora, and harpacticoids) to carnivores (Corycaeus, Tortanus, Labidocera, and Sinocalanus).

  8. Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

    2018-05-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

  9. Effect of the riparian vegetation removal on the trophic network of Neotropical stream fish assemblage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Sartori Manoel

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The study of the diet of fish is an important tool to assess different levels of environmental degradation, since the availability of food in the environment is a key factor for the fish occurrence. The removal of riparian vegetation usually degrades environmental quality, as this vegetation has an important role in providing energy to the ecosystem. This study investigates the effects of the removal of riparian vegetation on the fish assemblage trophic network. The study was carried out in two stretches of a southeastern Brazilian stream, one in a forest fragment and another in a pasture, during the wet and dry seasons of 2014. We analyzed the items consumed by each fish species using the frequency of occurrence and area of each item, which were combined to calculate the alimentary index, which was used to determine the food niche overlap of the fish and the specialization index of the trophic network. Aquatic Hexapoda, vegetal debris and organic matter dominated the trophic network of the two stretches. We detected higher values of food niche overlap in the forested stretch and more complex trophic networks in the pasture stretch. We found few seasonal variations in the items consumed and calculated indices in both stretches studied. The presence of grass on the banks in the pasture stretch and the importation of food resources from the upstream area may have provided a higher diversity of resources and consequently showed a more complex trophic network when compared to the forested stretch.

  10. Willow on Yellowstone's northern range: evidence for a trophic cascade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, Hawthorne L; Merrill, Evelyn H; Varley, Nathan; Boyce, Mark S

    2007-09-01

    Reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park in 1995-1996 has been argued to promote a trophic cascade by altering elk (Cervus elaphus) density, habitat-selection patterns, and behavior that, in turn, could lead to changes within the plant communities used by elk. We sampled two species of willow (Salix boothii and S. geyeriana) on the northern winter range to determine whether (1) there was quantitative evidence of increased willow growth following wolf reintroduction, (2) browsing by elk affected willow growth, and (3) any increase in growth observed was greater than that expected by climatic and hydrological factors alone, thereby indicating a trophic cascade caused by wolves. Using stem sectioning techniques to quantify historical growth patterns we found an approximately twofold increase in stem growth-ring area following wolf reintroduction for both species of willow. This increase could not be explained by climate and hydrological factors alone; the presence of wolves on the landscape was a significant predictor of stem growth above and beyond these abiotic factors. Growth-ring area was positively correlated with the previous year's ring area and negatively correlated with the percentage of twigs browsed from the stem during the winter preceding growth, indicating that elk browse impeded stem growth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade on Yellowstone's northern winter range following wolf reintroduction. We suggest that the community-altering effects of wolf restoration are an endorsement of ecological-process management in Yellowstone National Park.

  11. First direct evidence of a vertebrate three-level trophic chain in the fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriwet, Jürgen; Witzmann, Florian; Klug, Stefanie; Heidtke, Ulrich H J

    2008-01-22

    We describe the first known occurrence of a Permian shark specimen preserving two temnospondyl amphibians in its digestive tract as well as the remains of an acanthodian fish, which was ingested by one of the temnospondyls. This exceptional find provides for the first time direct evidence of a vertebrate three-level food chain in the fossil record with the simultaneous preservation of three trophic levels. Our analysis shows that small-sized Lower Permian xenacanthid sharks of the genus Triodus preyed on larval piscivorous amphibians. The recorded trophic interaction can be explained by the adaptation of certain xenacanthids to fully freshwater environments and the fact that in these same environments, large temnospondyls occupied the niche of modern crocodiles. This unique faunal association has not been documented after the Permian and Triassic. Therefore, this Palaeozoic three-level food chain provides strong and independent support for changes in aquatic trophic chain structures through time.

  12. Chytrid parasitism facilitates trophic transfer between bloom-forming cyanobacteria and zooplankton (Daphnia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Ramsy; Saebelfeld, Manja; Manthey, Christin; Rohrlack, Thomas; Wolinska, Justyna

    2016-10-13

    Parasites are rarely included in food web studies, although they can strongly alter trophic interactions. In aquatic ecosystems, poorly grazed cyanobacteria often dominate phytoplankton communities, leading to the decoupling of primary and secondary production. Here, we addressed the interface between predator-prey and host-parasite interactions by conducting a life-table experiment, in which four Daphnia galeata genotypes were maintained on quantitatively comparable diets consisting of healthy cyanobacteria or cyanobacteria infected by a fungal (chytrid) parasite. In four out of five fitness parameters, at least one Daphnia genotype performed better on parasitised cyanobacteria than in the absence of infection. Further treatments consisting of purified chytrid zoospores and heterotrophic bacteria suspensions established the causes of improved fitness. First, Daphnia feed on chytrid zoospores which trophically upgrade cyanobacterial carbon. Second, an increase in heterotrophic bacterial biomass, promoted by cyanobacterial decay, provides an additional food source for Daphnia. In addition, chytrid infection induces fragmentation of cyanobacterial filaments, which could render cyanobacteria more edible. Our results demonstrate that chytrid parasitism can sustain zooplankton under cyanobacterial bloom conditions, and exemplify the potential of parasites to alter interactions between trophic levels.

  13. The protozooplankton-ichthyoplankton trophic link: an overlooked aspect of aquatic food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagnes, David J S; Dower, John F; Figueiredo, Gisela M

    2010-01-01

    Since the introduction of the microbial loop concept, awareness of the role played by protozooplankton in marine food webs has grown. By consuming bacteria, and then being consumed by metazooplankton, protozoa form a trophic link that channels dissolved organic material into the "classic" marine food chain. Beyond enhancing energy transfer to higher trophic levels, protozoa play a key role in improving the food quality of metazooplankton. Here, we consider a third role played by protozoa, but one that has received comparatively little attention: that as prey items for ichthyoplankton. For >100 years it has been known that fish larvae consume protozoa. Despite this, fisheries scientists and biological oceanographers still largely ignore protozoa when assessing the foodweb dynamics that regulate the growth and survival of larval fish. We review evidence supporting the importance of the protozooplankton-ichthyoplankton link, including examples from the amateur aquarium trade, the commercial aquaculture industry, and contemporary studies of larval fish. We then consider why this potentially important link continues to receive very little attention. We conclude by offering suggestions for quantifying the importance of the protozooplankton-ichthyoplankton trophic link, using both existing methods and new technologies.

  14. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu

    2017-01-01

    and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI......The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches......) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950...

  15. Mercury biomagnification in a contaminated estuary food web: Effects of age and trophic position using stable isotope analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coelho, J.P.; Mieiro, C.L.; Pereira, E.; Duarte, A.C.; Pardal, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► High trophic magnification potential of mercury in a temperate contaminated estuary. ► The use of age adjusted data provided better fitting to linear regression curves. ► Similar TMFs in other studies suggest stable magnification regardless of latitude. -- Abstract: The main aim of this study was to ascertain the biomagnification processes in a mercury-contaminated estuary, by clarifying the trophic web structure through stable isotope ratios. For this purpose, primary producers (seagrasses and macroalgae), invertebrates (detritivores and benthic predators) and fish were analysed for total and organic mercury and for stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures. Trophic structure was accurately described by δ 15 N, while δ 13 C reflected the carbon source for each species. An increase of mercury levels was observed with trophic level, particularly for organic mercury. Results confirm mercury biomagnification to occur in this estuarine food web, especially in the organic form, both in absolute concentrations and fraction of total mercury load. Age can be considered an important variable in mercury biomagnification studies, and data adjustments to account for the different exposure periods may be necessary for a correct assessment of trophic magnification rates and ecological risk

  16. Trophic-functional patterns of biofilm-dwelling ciliates at different water depths in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah Al, Mamun; Gao, Yangyang; Xu, Guangjian; Wang, Zheng; Warren, Alan; Xu, Henglong

    2018-04-01

    Vertical variations in trophic-functional patterns of biofilm-dwelling ciliates were studied in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China. A total of 50 species were identified and assigned to four trophic-functional groups (TFgrs): algivores (A), bacterivorous (B), non-selective (N) and raptors (R). The trophic-functional structures of the ciliate communities showed significant variability among different water depths: (1) with increasing water depth, relative species numbers and relative abundances of groups A and R decreased sharply whereas those of groups B and N increased gradually; (2) in terms of the frequency of occurrences, group A dominated at depths of 1-3.5 m whereas group B dominated at 5 m, while in terms of the probability density function of the trophic-functional spectrum, group A was the highest contributor at 1 m and group B was highest at the other three depths; (3) distance-based redundancy analyses revealed significant differences in trophic-functional patterns among the four depths, except between 2 and 3.5 m (P > 0.05); and (4) the trophic-functional trait diversity increased from 1 to 3.5 m and decreased sharply at 5 m. Our results suggest that the biofilm-dwelling ciliates maintain a stable trophic-functional pattern and high biodiversity at depths of 1-3.5 m. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. Strontium-90 and cesium-137 migration in trophic chain of cattle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zotov, V.G.; Sirotkin, A.N.; Isamov, N.N.

    1983-01-01

    Technique for determination of factors of radionuclide migration in cattle trophic chain, which can be used for forecasting probable contamination of food and cattle breeding products Under Uzbekistan conditions is suggested. It is shown that the factor of biological absorption (FBA) of strontiUm 90 by plants from grey desert soils is 3.7 times higher, than of cesium 137. Mentioned differences in soil-plants migration link are leveled and their FBA in food-milk, food-bone, food-mUscles links remain practically the same during radionuclide migration from food to milk and meat. During radionuclide migration in trophic chain of cattle in food-bone and food-muscles chains the concentration of strontium 90 in bone tissUe and cesium 137 in muscle tissue takes place

  18. Trait-mediated trophic cascade creates enemy-free space for nesting hummingbirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeney, Harold F; Meneses, M Rocio; Hamilton, Chris E; Lichter-Marck, Eli; Mannan, R William; Snyder, Noel; Snyder, Helen; Wethington, Susan M; Dyer, Lee A

    2015-09-01

    The indirect effects of predators on nonadjacent trophic levels, mediated through traits of intervening species, are collectively known as trait-mediated trophic cascades. Although birds are important predators in terrestrial ecosystems, clear examples of trait-mediated indirect effects involving bird predators have almost never been documented. Such indirect effects are important for structuring ecological communities and are likely to be negatively impacted by habitat fragmentation, climate change, and other factors that reduce abundance of top predators. We demonstrate that hummingbirds in Arizona realize increased breeding success when nesting in association with hawks. An enemy-free nesting space is created when jays, an important source of mortality for hummingbird nests, alter their foraging behavior in the presence of their hawk predators.

  19. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  20. Mapping of trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance in Jatibarang Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudiyanti, Siti; Anggoro, Sutrisno; Rahman, Arif

    2018-02-01

    Jatibarang Reservoir is one of the Indonesian Reservoirs, which used for human activities such as tourism and agriculture. These activities will provide input of organic matter and nutrients into the water. These materials will impact water quality and eutrophication process. Eutrophication is the water enrichment by nutrients, especially nitrogen and phosphorus which can promote the growth of phytoplankton. Some indicators of eutrophication are increasing nutrients, trophic states, and change of phytoplankton composition. The relationship between water quality and phytoplankton community can be used as an indicator of trophic states in Jatibarang Reservoir. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance to the trophic states and mapping trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton in Jatibarang Reservoir. This study was conducted in June and July 2017 at 9 stations around Jatibarang Reservoir. The results showed that average concentration of nitrate, phosphate, and chlorophyll-a in Jatibarang Reservoir was 0.69 mg/L, 0.27 mg/L, and 1.66 mg/m3, respectively. The phytoplankton abundance ranged 16-62,200 cells/L, consists of 21 genera of four classes, i.e. Chlorophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae, and Dinophyceae. Cyanophyceae was a dominant phytoplankton group based on the composition of abundance (>80%). High nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton dominated by Anabaena (Cyanophyceae) which indicated that the waters in Jatibarang Reservoir were eutrophic.

  1. Use of Shark Dental Protein to Estimate Trophic Position via Amino Acid Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, M.; Herbert, G.; Ellis, G.

    2017-12-01

    The diets of apex predators such as sharks are expected to change in response to overfishing of their mesopredator prey, but pre-anthropogenic baselines necessary to test for such changes are lacking. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) of soft tissues is commonly used to study diets in animals based on the bioaccumulation of heavier isotopes of carbon and nitrogen with increasing trophic level. In specimens representing pre-anthropogenic baselines, however, a modified SIA approach is needed to deal with taphonomic challenges, such as loss of soft tissues or selective loss of less stable amino acids (AAs) in other sources of organic compounds (e.g., teeth or bone) which can alter bulk isotope values. These challenges can be overcome with a compound-specific isotope analysis of individual AAs (AA-CSIA), but this first requires a thorough understanding of trophic enrichment factors for individual AAs within biomineralized tissues. In this study, we compare dental and muscle proteins of individual sharks via AA-CSIA to determine how trophic position is recorded within teeth and whether that information differs from that obtained from soft tissues. If skeletal organics reliably record information about shark ecology, then archaeological and perhaps paleontological specimens can be used to investigate pre-anthropogenic ecosystems. Preliminary experiments show that the commonly used glutamic acid/phenylalanine AA pairing may not be useful for establishing trophic position from dental proteins, but that estimated trophic position determined from alternate AA pairs are comparable to those from muscle tissue within the same species.

  2. Do stage-specific functional responses of consumers dampen the effects of subsidies on trophic cascades in streams?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Takuya; Watanabe, Katsutoshi

    2014-07-01

    Resource subsidies often weaken trophic cascades in recipient communities via consumers' functional response to the subsidies. Consumer populations are commonly stage-structured and may respond to the subsidies differently among the stages yet less is known about how this might impact the subsidy effects on the strength of trophic cascades in recipient systems. We show here, using a large-scale field experiment, that the stage structure of a recipient consumer would dampen the effects of terrestrial invertebrate subsidies on the strength of trophic cascade in streams. When a high input rate of the terrestrial invertebrates was available, both large and small fish stages switched their diet to the terrestrial subsidy, which weakened the trophic cascade in streams. However, when the input rate of the terrestrial invertebrates was at a moderate level, the terrestrial subsidy did not weaken the trophic cascade. This discrepancy was likely due to small fish stages being competitively excluded from feeding on the subsidy by larger stages of fish and primarily foraging on benthic invertebrates under the moderate input level. Although previous studies using single fish stages have clearly demonstrated that the terrestrial invertebrate input equivalent to our moderate input rate weakened the trophic cascade in streams, this subsidy effect might be overestimated given small fish stage may not switch their diet to the subsidy under competition with large fish stage. Given the ubiquity of consumer stage structure and interaction among consumer stages, the effects we saw might be widespread in nature, requiring future studies that explicitly involve consumer's stage structure into community ecology. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  3. Fish mitigate trophic depletion in marine cave ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussotti, Simona; Di Franco, Antonio; Bianchi, Carlo Nike; Chevaldonné, Pierre; Egea, Lea; Fanelli, Emanuela; Lejeusne, Christophe; Musco, Luigi; Navarro-Barranco, Carlos; Pey, Alexis; Planes, Serge; Vieux-Ingrassia, Jean Vincent; Guidetti, Paolo

    2018-06-15

    Dark marine habitats are often characterized by a food-limited condition. Peculiar dark habitats include marine caves, characterized by the absence of light and limited water flow, which lead to reduced fluxes of organic matter for cave-dwelling organisms. We investigated whether the most abundant and common cave-dwelling fish Apogon imberbis has the potential to play the role of trophic vector in Mediterranean marine caves. We first analysed stomach contents to check whether repletion changes according to a nycthemeral cycle. We then identified the prey items, to see whether they belong to species associated with cave habitats or not. Finally, we assessed whether A. imberbis moves outside marine caves at night to feed, by collecting visual census data on A. imberbis density both inside and outside caves, by day and by night. The stomach repletion of individuals sampled early in the morning was significantly higher than later in the day. Most prey were typical of habitats other than caves. A. imberbis was on average more abundant within caves during the day and outside during the night. Our study supports the hypothesis regarding the crucial trophic role of A. imberbis in connecting Mediterranean marine caves with external habitats.

  4. Diet and trophic ecology of the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier from South African waters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Dicken

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the diet and trophic ecology of apex predators is key for the implementation of effective ecosystem as well as species-based management initiatives. Using a combination of stomach content data and stable isotope analysis (δ15N and δ13C the current study provides information on size-based and sex-specific variations in diet, trophic position (TP and foraging habitat of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier caught in the KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board bather protection program. This study presents the longest time-series and most detailed analysis of stomach content data for G. cuvier worldwide. Prey identified from 628 non-empty stomachs revealed a size-based shift in diet. Reptiles, birds, mysticetes, and large shark species increased in dietary importance with G. cuvier size, concomitant with a decrease in smaller prey such as batoids and teleosts. Seasonal and decadal shifts in diet driven primarily by changes in the importance of elasmobranchs and mammal (cetacean prey were recorded for medium sized (150-220 cm G. cuvier. Both stomach content and stable isotope analysis indicated that G. cuvier is a generalist feeder at the population level. Size-based δ13C profiles indicated a movement to offshore foraging habitats by larger G. cuvier. Calculated TP varied by method ranging from 4.0 to 5.0 (TPSCA for stomach contents and from 3.6 to 4.5 (TPscaled and TPadditive for δ15N. Large (> 220 cm G. cuvier did not feed at discrete trophic levels, but rather throughout the food web. These data provide key information on the ecological role of G. cuvier to improve the accuracy of regional food web modelling. This will enable a better understanding of the ecological impacts related to changes in the abundance of this predator.

  5. A guideline to study the feasibility domain of multi-trophic and changing ecological communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chuliang; Rohr, Rudolf P; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-04-24

    The feasibility domain of an ecological community can be described by the set of environmental abiotic and biotic conditions under which all co-occurring and interacting species in a given site and time can have positive abundances. Mathematically, the feasibility domain corresponds to the parameter space compatible with positive (feasible) solutions at equilibrium for all the state variables in a system under a given model of population dynamics. Under specific dynamics, the existence of a feasible equilibrium is a necessary condition for species persistence regardless of whether the feasible equilibrium is dynamically stable or not. Thus, the size of the feasibility domain can also be used as an indicator of the tolerance of a community to random environmental variations. This has motivated a rich research agenda to estimate the feasibility domain of ecological communities. However, these methodologies typically assume that species interactions are static, or that input and output energy flows on each trophic level are unconstrained. Yet, this is different to how communities behave in nature. Here, we present a step-by-step quantitative guideline providing illustrative examples, computational code, and mathematical proofs to study systematically the feasibility domain of ecological communities under changes of interspecific interactions and subject to different constraints on the trophic energy flows. This guideline covers multi-trophic communities that can be formed by any type of interspecific interactions. Importantly, we show that the relative size of the feasibility domain can significantly change as a function of the biological information taken into consideration. We believe that the availability of these methods can allow us to increase our understanding about the limits at which ecological communities may no longer tolerate further environmental perturbations, and can facilitate a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research. Copyright

  6. Trophic transfer of microplastics and mixed contaminants in the marine food web and implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbery, Maddison; O'Connor, Wayne; Palanisami, Thavamani

    2018-06-01

    Plastic litter has become one of the most serious threats to the marine environment. Over 690 marine species have been impacted by plastic debris with small plastic particles being observed in the digestive tract of organisms from different trophic levels. The physical and chemical properties of microplastics facilitate the sorption of contaminants to the particle surface, serving as a vector of contaminants to organisms following ingestion. Bioaccumulation factors for higher trophic organisms and impacts on wider marine food webs remain unknown. The main objectives of this review were to discuss the factors influencing microplastic ingestion; describe the biological impacts of associated chemical contaminants; highlight evidence for the trophic transfer of microplastics and contaminants within marine food webs and outline the future research priorities to address potential human health concerns. Controlled laboratory studies looking at the effects of microplastics and contaminants on model organisms employ nominal concentrations and consequently have little relevance to the real environment. Few studies have attempted to track the fate of microplastics and mixed contaminants through a complex marine food web using environmentally relevant concentrations to identify the real level of risk. To our knowledge, there has been no attempt to understand the transfer of microplastics and associated contaminants from seafood to humans and the implications for human health. Research is needed to determine bioaccumulation factors for popular seafood items in order to identify the potential impacts on human health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Ammonium Transformation in 14 Lakes along a Trophic Gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Leoni

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Ammonia is a widespread pollutant in aquatic ecosystems originating directly and indirectly from human activities, which can strongly affect the structure and functioning of the aquatic foodweb. The biological oxidation of NH4+ to nitrite, and then nitrate is a key part of the complex nitrogen cycle and a fundamental process in aquatic environments, having a profound influence on ecosystem stability and functionality. Environmental studies have shown that our current knowledge of physical and chemical factors that control this process and the abundance and function of involved microorganisms are not entirely understood. In this paper, the efficiency and the transformation velocity of ammonium into oxidised compounds in 14 south-alpine lakes in northern Italy, with a similar origin, but different trophic levels, are compared with lab-scale experimentations (20 °C, dark, oxygen saturation that are performed in artificial microcosms (4 L. The water samples were collected in different months to highlight the possible effect of seasonality on the development of the ammonium oxidation process. In four-liter microcosms, concentrations were increased by 1 mg/L NH4+ and the process of ammonium oxidation was constantly monitored. The time elapsed for the decrease of 25% and 95% of the initial ion ammonium concentration and the rate for that ammonium oxidation were evaluated. Principal Component Analysis and General Linear Model, performed on 56 observations and several chemical and physical parameters, highlighted the important roles of total phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations on the commencement of the oxidation process. Meanwhile, the natural concentration of ammonium influenced the rate of nitrification (µg NH4+/L day. Seasonality did not seem to significantly affect the ammonium transformation. The results highlight the different vulnerabilities of lakes with different trophic statuses.

  8. Mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from a remote lake in the Brazilian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azevedo-Silva, Claudio Eduardo, E-mail: ceass@biof.ufrj.br [Laboratório de Radioisótopos Eduardo Penna, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Cidade Universitária, Av. Carlos Chagas Filho s/n, bloco G, Sala 60, Subsolo, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Almeida, Ronaldo [Instituto Natureza e Cultura, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Rua 1 de Maio. Colegiado de Ciências Agrárias, Benjamin Constant, Colônia, AM (Brazil); Carvalho, Dario P. [Laboratório de Radioisótopos Eduardo Penna, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Cidade Universitária, Av. Carlos Chagas Filho s/n, bloco G, Sala 60, Subsolo, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Ometto, Jean P.H.B. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terrestre, Avenida dos Astronautas, 1758, Jardim da Granja, São José dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Camargo, Plínio B. de [Laboratório de Ecologia Isotópica, Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Centenário, 303, São Dimas, Piracicaba, SP (Brazil); and others

    2016-11-15

    The present study assesses mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake, Brazilian Amazon. In addition to mercury determination, the investigation comprised the calculation of Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) and Trophic Magnification Slope (TMS), through the measurements of stable isotopes of carbon (δ{sup 13}C) and nitrogen (δ{sup 15}N) in fish samples. These assessments were executed in two different scenarios, i.e., considering (1) all fish species or (2) only the resident fish (excluding the migratory species). Bottom litter, superficial sediment and seston were the sources used for generating the trophic position (TP) data used in the calculation of the TMF. Samples from 84 fish were analysed, comprising 13 species, which were categorized into four trophic guilds: iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous fish. The δ{sup 13}C values pointed to the separation of the ichthyofauna into two groups. One group comprised iliophagous and planktivorous species, which are linked to the food chains of phytoplankton and detritus. The other group was composed by omnivorous and piscivorous fish, which are associated to the trophic webs of phytoplankton, bottom litter, detritus, periphyton, as well as to food chains of igapó (blackwater-flooded Amazonian forests). The TP values suggest that the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake is part of a short food web, with three well-characterized trophic levels. Mercury concentrations and δ{sup 13}C values point to multiple sources for Hg input and transfer. The similarity in Hg levels and TP values between piscivorous and planktivorous fish suggests a comparable efficiency for the transfer of this metal through pelagic and littoral food chains. Regarding the two abovementioned scenarios, i.e., considering (1) the entire ichthyofauna and (2) only the resident species, the TMF values were 5.25 and 4.49, as well as the TMS values were 0.21 and 0.19, respectively

  9. Mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from a remote lake in the Brazilian Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azevedo-Silva, Claudio Eduardo; Almeida, Ronaldo; Carvalho, Dario P.; Ometto, Jean P.H.B.; Camargo, Plínio B. de

    2016-01-01

    The present study assesses mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake, Brazilian Amazon. In addition to mercury determination, the investigation comprised the calculation of Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) and Trophic Magnification Slope (TMS), through the measurements of stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) in fish samples. These assessments were executed in two different scenarios, i.e., considering (1) all fish species or (2) only the resident fish (excluding the migratory species). Bottom litter, superficial sediment and seston were the sources used for generating the trophic position (TP) data used in the calculation of the TMF. Samples from 84 fish were analysed, comprising 13 species, which were categorized into four trophic guilds: iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous fish. The δ 13 C values pointed to the separation of the ichthyofauna into two groups. One group comprised iliophagous and planktivorous species, which are linked to the food chains of phytoplankton and detritus. The other group was composed by omnivorous and piscivorous fish, which are associated to the trophic webs of phytoplankton, bottom litter, detritus, periphyton, as well as to food chains of igapó (blackwater-flooded Amazonian forests). The TP values suggest that the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake is part of a short food web, with three well-characterized trophic levels. Mercury concentrations and δ 13 C values point to multiple sources for Hg input and transfer. The similarity in Hg levels and TP values between piscivorous and planktivorous fish suggests a comparable efficiency for the transfer of this metal through pelagic and littoral food chains. Regarding the two abovementioned scenarios, i.e., considering (1) the entire ichthyofauna and (2) only the resident species, the TMF values were 5.25 and 4.49, as well as the TMS values were 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. These findings

  10. Variable δ15N Diet-Tissue Discrimination Factors among Sharks: Implications for Trophic Position, Diet and Food Web Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olin, Jill A.; Hussey, Nigel E.; Grgicak-Mannion, Alice; Fritts, Mark W.; Wintner, Sabine P.; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2013-01-01

    The application of stable isotopes to characterize the complexities of a species foraging behavior and trophic relationships is dependent on assumptions of δ15N diet-tissue discrimination factors (∆15N). As ∆15N values have been experimentally shown to vary amongst consumers, tissues and diet composition, resolving appropriate species-specific ∆15N values can be complex. Given the logistical and ethical challenges of controlled feeding experiments for determining ∆15N values for large and/or endangered species, our objective was to conduct an assessment of a range of reported ∆15N values that can hypothetically serve as surrogates for describing the predator-prey relationships of four shark species that feed on prey from different trophic levels (i.e., different mean δ15N dietary values). Overall, the most suitable species-specific ∆15N values decreased with increasing dietary-δ15N values based on stable isotope Bayesian ellipse overlap estimates of shark and the principal prey functional groups contributing to the diet determined from stomach content analyses. Thus, a single ∆15N value was not supported for this speciose group of marine predatory fishes. For example, the ∆15N value of 3.7‰ provided the highest percent overlap between prey and predator isotope ellipses for the bonnethead shark (mean diet δ15N = 9‰) whereas a ∆15N value white shark (mean diet δ15N = 15‰). These data corroborate the previously reported inverse ∆15N-dietary δ15N relationship when both isotope ellipses of principal prey functional groups and the broader identified diet of each species were considered supporting the adoption of different ∆15N values that reflect the predators’ δ15N-dietary value. These findings are critical for refining the application of stable isotope modeling approaches as inferences regarding a species’ ecological role in their community will be influenced with consequences for conservation and management actions. PMID:24147026

  11. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  12. Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, C. A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

    2014-07-01

    Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties - zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), were demonstrated to be responsible for the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics already have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production, the primary target of herbivorous mesozooplankton. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice - both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases associated with declining sea ice in the Artic and damped projected NPP declines associated with decreased mixing in the Northwest Atlantic and Southern Ocean

  13. Trophic diversity in the evolution and community assembly of loricariid catfishes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lujan Nathan K

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Neotropical catfish family Loricariidae contains over 830 species that display extraordinary variation in jaw morphologies but nonetheless reveal little interspecific variation from a generalized diet of detritus and algae. To investigate this paradox, we collected δ13C and δ15N stable isotope signatures from 649 specimens representing 32 loricariid genera and 82 species from 19 local assemblages distributed across South America. We calculated vectors representing the distance and direction of each specimen relative to the δ15N/δ13C centroid for its local assemblage, and then examined the evolutionary diversification of loricariids across assemblage isotope niche space by regressing the mean vector for each genus in each assemblage onto a phylogeny reconstructed from osteological characters. Results Loricariids displayed a total range of δ15N assemblage centroid deviation spanning 4.9‰, which is within the tissue–diet discrimination range known for Loricariidae, indicating that they feed at a similar trophic level and that δ15N largely reflects differences in their dietary protein content. Total range of δ13C deviation spanned 7.4‰, which is less than the minimum range reported for neotropical river fish communities, suggesting that loricariids selectively assimilate a restricted subset of the full basal resource spectrum available to fishes. Phylogenetic regression of assemblage centroid-standardized vectors for δ15N and δ13C revealed that loricariid genera with allopatric distributions in disjunct river basins partition basal resources in an evolutionarily conserved manner concordant with patterns of jaw morphological specialization and with evolutionary diversification via ecological radiation. Conclusions Trophic partitioning along elemental/nutritional gradients may provide an important mechanism of dietary segregation and evolutionary diversification among loricariids and perhaps other taxonomic

  14. Ecological impact of transhumance on the trophic state of alpine lakes in Gran Paradiso National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiberti R.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Transhumance – the summer transfer of livestock to highland pastures – is a traditional practice in the European Alps and is considered an integral part of the mountain ecosystem. Mountain lakes are generally oligotrophic systems and are particularly sensitive to the nutrient input caused by livestock. The aim of the present study was to quantify the impact of livestock grazing on the trophic state of high-altitude lakes in an area where transhumance is a traditional practice (Gran Paradiso National Park, Western Italian Alps, taking into account its dual value of ecosystem component and potential threat to lakes’ trophic status. The impact of flocks and herds grazing was estimated on sensitive parameters related to the trophic state of alpine lakes: water transparency, nutrient content, bacterial load and chlorophyll-a concentration. Transhumance produced a significant increase in the trophic state of lakes with high grazing pressure, but little or no effect was found at soft-impacted lakes. Even though heavy-impacted lakes represent a minority of the studied lakes (three out of twenty, we indicated conservation measures such as fencing, wastewater treatment and livestock exclosure to be tested in Gran Paradiso National Park.

  15. Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy S. Nowacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

  16. Seasonal PCB bioaccumulation in an arctic marine ecosystem: a model analysis incorporating lipid dynamics, food-web productivity and migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laender, Frederik De; Oevelen, Dick Van; Frantzen, Sylvia; Middelburg, Jack J; Soetaert, Karline

    2010-01-01

    Primary production and species' lipid contents in Arctic ecosystems are notoriously seasonal. Additionally, seasonal migration patterns of fish may alter prey availability and thus diet. Taking the southern Barents Sea as a study region and PCBs as model contaminants, we examined to what extent each of these factors cause bioaccumulation in fish to change throughout the year. Data on physiology and standing stocks of multiple trophic levels were used to estimated season-specific carbon budgets and by inference also corresponding values for food ingestion and production of cod, capelin, and herring. When combining these values with Arctic lipid dynamics for bioaccumulation model parameter setting, we predicted bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) that were in good agreement with BAFs for cod and capelin observed between 1998 and 2008. BAFs in all fish were 10 times lower in summer than in spring and fall/winter and were mainly driven by lipid dynamics. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs: increase in BAF per unit increase in trophic level as derived from our carbon budgets) were highest for PCB 153 during spring (2.3-2.4) and lowest for PCB 52 in summer and fall/winter (1.5-1.6) and were driven by seasonal shifts in trophic level and lipid dynamics.

  17. Multi-trophic resilience of boreal lake ecosystems to forest fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L; Lindberg, Mark S; Schmutz, Joel A; Bertram, Mark R

    2014-05-01

    Fires are the major natural disturbance in the boreal forest, and their frequency and intensity will likely increase as the climate warms. Terrestrial nutrients released by fires may be transported to boreal lakes, stimulating increased primary productivity, which may radiate through multiple trophic levels. Using a before-after-control-impact (BACI) design, with pre- and postfire data from burned and unburned areas, we examined effects of a natural fire across several trophic levels of boreal lakes, from nutrient and chlorophyll levels, to macroinvertebrates, to waterbirds. Concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus were not affected by the fire. Chlorophyll a levels were also unaffected, likely reflecting the stable nutrient concentrations. For aquatic invertebrates, we found that densities of three functional feeding groups did not respond to the fire (filterers, gatherers, scrapers), while two groups increased (shredders, predators). Amphipods accounted for 98% of shredder numbers, and we hypothesize that fire-mediated habitat changes may have favored their generalist feeding and habitat ecology. This increase in amphipods may, in turn, have driven increased predator densities, as amphipods were the most numerous invertebrate in our lakes and are commonly taken as prey. Finally, abundance of waterbird young, which feed primarily on aquatic invertebrates, was not affected by the fire. Overall, ecosystems of our study lakes were largely resilient to forest fires, likely due to their high initial nutrient concentrations and small catchment sizes. Moreover, this resilience spanned multiple trophic levels, a significant result for ecologically similar boreal regions, especially given the high potential for increased fires with future climate change.

  18. Model-free and model-based reward prediction errors in EEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambrook, Thomas D; Hardwick, Ben; Wills, Andy J; Goslin, Jeremy

    2018-05-24

    Learning theorists posit two reinforcement learning systems: model-free and model-based. Model-based learning incorporates knowledge about structure and contingencies in the world to assign candidate actions with an expected value. Model-free learning is ignorant of the world's structure; instead, actions hold a value based on prior reinforcement, with this value updated by expectancy violation in the form of a reward prediction error. Because they use such different learning mechanisms, it has been previously assumed that model-based and model-free learning are computationally dissociated in the brain. However, recent fMRI evidence suggests that the brain may compute reward prediction errors to both model-free and model-based estimates of value, signalling the possibility that these systems interact. Because of its poor temporal resolution, fMRI risks confounding reward prediction errors with other feedback-related neural activity. In the present study, EEG was used to show the presence of both model-based and model-free reward prediction errors and their place in a temporal sequence of events including state prediction errors and action value updates. This demonstration of model-based prediction errors questions a long-held assumption that model-free and model-based learning are dissociated in the brain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  20. Microbial Ecophysiology of Whey Biomethanation: Characterization of Bacterial Trophic Populations and Prevalent Species in Continuous Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Chartrain, M.; Zeikus, J. G.

    1986-01-01

    The organization and species composition of bacterial trophic groups associated with lactose biomethanation were investigated in a whey-processing chemostat by enumeration, isolation, and general characterization studies. The bacteria were spatially organized as free-living forms and as self-immobilized forms appearing in flocs. Three dominant bacterial trophic group populations were present (in most probable number per milliliter) whose species numbers varied with the substrate consumed: hyd...

  1. Trophic level transfer of microplastic: Mytilus edulis (L.) to Carcinus maenas (L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrell, Paul; Nelson, Kathryn

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the trophic transfer of microplastic from mussels to crabs. Mussels (Mytilus edulis) were exposed to 0.5 μm fluorescent polystyrene microspheres, then fed to crabs (Carcinus maenas). Tissue samples were then taken at intervals up to 21 days. The number of microspheres in the haemolymph of the crabs was highest at 24 h (15 033 ml −1 ± SE 3146), and was almost gone after 21 days (267 ml −1 ± SE 120). The maximum amount of microspheres in the haemolymph was 0.04% of the amount to which the mussels were exposed. Microspheres were also found in the stomach, hepatopancreas, ovary and gills of the crabs, in decreasing numbers over the trial period. This study is the first to show ‘natural’ trophic transfer of microplastic, and its translocation to haemolymph and tissues of a crab. This has implications for the health of marine organisms, the wider food web and humans. -- Highlights: ► Microplastic transferred in marine food chain. ► Microplastic transferred to haemolymph when ingested in food. ► Microplastic remains in organism for at least 21 days. -- This communication demonstrates trophic level transfer of microplastic particles from Mytilus edulis to Carcinus maenas

  2. Human activities as a driver of spatial variation in the trophic structure of fish communities on Pacific coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppert, Jonathan L W; Vigliola, Laurent; Kulbicki, Michel; Labrosse, Pierre; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Meekan, Mark G

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, pollution and fishing impact the trophic structure of coral reef fishes, which can influence ecosystem health and function. Although these impacts may be ubiquitous, they are not consistent across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Using an extensive database of fish biomass sampled using underwater visual transects on coral reefs, we modelled the impact of human activities on food webs at Pacific-wide and regional (1,000s-10,000s km) scales. We found significantly lower biomass of sharks and carnivores, where there were higher densities of human populations (hereafter referred to as human activity); however, these patterns were not spatially consistent as there were significant differences in the trophic structures of fishes among biogeographic regions. Additionally, we found significant changes in the benthic structure of reef environments, notably a decline in coral cover where there was more human activity. Direct human impacts were the strongest in the upper part of the food web, where we found that in a majority of the Pacific, the biomass of reef sharks and carnivores were significantly and negatively associated with human activity. Finally, although human-induced stressors varied in strength and significance throughout the coral reef food web across the Pacific, socioeconomic variables explained more variation in reef fish trophic structure than habitat variables in a majority of the biogeographic regions. Notably, economic development (measured as GDP per capita) did not guarantee healthy reef ecosystems (high coral cover and greater fish biomass). Our results indicate that human activities are significantly shaping patterns of trophic structure of reef fishes in a spatially nonuniform manner across the Pacific Ocean, by altering processes that organize communities in both "top-down" (fishing of predators) and "bottom-up" (degradation of benthic communities) contexts. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  4. Relationship between ecomorphology and trophic segregation in four closely related sympatric fish species (Teleostei, Sciaenidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasina, Gabriela; Molina, Juan; Lopez Cazorla, Andrea; Díaz de Astarloa, Juan

    This study explores the relationship between ecomorphology and trophic segregation in four closely related sympatric fish species (Teleostei, Sciaenidae) that are known to differ in their trophic habits. Only adult specimens were analyzed: 103 Cynoscion guatucupa, 77 Pogonias cromis, 61 Micropogonias furnieri, and 48 Menticirrhus americanus. The four species presented divergent ecomorphological traits related to swimming agility, prey spotting and capture, and the potential size of prey they were able to swallow. Results suggest that these sciaenid species can partition the food resources, even though they completely overlap in space. Differences in their ecomorphological traits appear to correlate closely with the diet and consequently could explain the trophic differentiation observed. Arguably, these ecomorphological differences play a significant role in the coexistence of the adults of these sympatric fish species. Copyright © 2016 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Trophic polymorphism, habitat and diet segregation in Percichthys trucha (Pisces : Percichthyidae) in the Andes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruzzante, D.E.; Walde, S.J.; Cussac, V.E.

    1998-01-01

    Divergent natural selection affecting specific trait combinations that lead to greater efficiency in resource exploitation is believed to be a major mechanism leading to trophic polymorphism and adaptive radiation. We present evidence of trophic polymorphism involving two benthic morphs within...... Percichthys trucha, a fish endemic to temperate South America. In a series of lakes located in the southern Andes, we found two morphs of P. trucha that could be distinguished on the basis of gill raker length and five other morphological measures, most of which are likely associated with the use of food...

  6. Invasive ants compete with and modify the trophic ecology of hermit crabs on tropical islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNatty, Alice; Abbott, Kirsti L; Lester, Philip J

    2009-05-01

    Invasive species can dramatically alter trophic interactions. Predation is the predominant trophic interaction generally considered to be responsible for ecological change after invasion. In contrast, how frequently competition from invasive species contributes to the decline of native species remains controversial. Here, we demonstrate how the trophic ecology of the remote atoll nation of Tokelau is changing due to competition between invasive ants (Anoplolepis gracilipes) and native terrestrial hermit crabs (Coenobita spp.) for carrion. A significant negative correlation was observed between A. gracilipes and hermit crab abundance. On islands with A. gracilipes, crabs were generally restricted to the periphery of invaded islands. Very few hermit crabs were found in central areas of these islands where A. gracilipes abundances were highest. Ant exclusion experiments demonstrated that changes in the abundance and distribution of hermit crabs on Tokelau are a result of competition. The ants did not kill the hermit crabs. Rather, when highly abundant, A. gracilipes attacked crabs by spraying acid and drove crabs away from carrion resources. Analysis of naturally occurring N and C isotopes suggests that the ants are effectively lowering the trophic level of crabs. According to delta(15) N values, hermit crabs have a relatively high trophic level on islands where A. gracilipes have not invaded. In contrast, where these ants have invaded we observed a significant decrease in delta(15) N for all crab species. This result concurs with our experiment in suggesting long-term exclusion from carrion resources, driving co-occurring crabs towards a more herbivorous diet. Changes in hermit crab abundance or distribution may have major ramifications for the stability of plant communities. Because A. gracilipes have invaded many tropical islands where the predominant scavengers are hermit crabs, we consider that their competitive effects are likely to be more prominent in

  7. Trait-mediated trophic interactions: is foraging theory keeping up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey

    2013-01-01

    Many ecologists believe that there is a lack of foraging theory that works in community contexts, for populations of unique individuals each making trade-offs between food and risk that are subject to feedbacks from behavior of others. Such theory is necessary to reproduce the trait-mediated trophic interactions now recognized as widespread and strong. Game theory can...

  8. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  9. Protection by GDNF and other trophic factors against the dopamine-depleting effects of neurotoxic doses of methamphetamine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cass, Wayne A; Peters, Laura E; Harned, Michael E; Seroogy, Kim B

    2006-08-01

    Repeated methamphetamine (METH) administration to animals can result in long-lasting decreases in striatal dopamine (DA) content. It has previously been shown that glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) can reduce the DA-depleting effects of neurotoxic doses of METH. However, there are several other trophic factors that are protective against dopaminergic toxins. Thus, the present experiments further investigated the protective effect of GDNF as well as the protective effects of several other trophic factors. Male Fischer-344 rats were given an intracerebral injection of trophic factor (2-10 microg) 1 day before METH (5 mg/kg, s.c., 4 injections at 2-h intervals). Seven days later DA levels in the striatum were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Initial experiments indicated that only intrastriatal GDNF, and not intranigral GDNF, was protective. Thereafter, all other trophic factors were administered into the striatum. Members of the GDNF family (GDNF, neurturin, and artemin) all provided significant protection against the DA-depleting effects of METH, with GDNF providing the greatest protection. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor, neurotrophin-3, acidic fibroblast growth factor, basic fibroblast growth factor, ciliary neurotrophic factor, transforming growth factor-alpha (TGF-alpha), heregulin beta1 (HRG-beta1), and amphiregulin (AR) provided no significant protection at the doses examined. These results suggest that the GDNF family of trophic factors can provide significant protection against the DA-depleting effects of neurotoxic doses of METH.

  10. Trophic interactions in changing landscapes: responses of soil food webs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hedlund, K.; Griffiths, B.; Christensen, S.; Scheu, S.; Setälä, H.; Tscharntke, T.; Verhoef, H.A.

    2004-01-01

    Soil communities in landscapes that are rapidly changing due to a range of anthropogenic processes can be regarded as highly transient systems where interactions between competing species or trophic levels may be seriously disrupted. In disturbed communities dispersal in space and time has a role in

  11. Trophic position of coexisting krill species: a stable isotope approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agersted, Mette Dalgaard; Bode, Antonio; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    2014-01-01

    Four krill species with overlapping functional biology coexist in Greenland waters. Here, we used stable isotopes to investigate and discuss their trophic role and mode of coexistence. Bulk carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope analyses of Thysanoessa longicaudata, T. inermis, T. raschii...

  12. Bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of perfluorinated compounds in a eutrophic freshwater food web

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Jian; Guo, Chang-Sheng; Zhang, Yuan; Meng, Wei

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the bioaccumulation of perfluorinated compounds from a food web in Taihu Lake in China was investigated. The organisms included egret bird species, carnivorous fish, omnivorous fish, herbivorous fish, zooplankton, phytoplankton, zoobenthos and white shrimp. Isotope analysis by δ 13 C and δ 15 N indicated that the carnivorous fish and egret were the top predators in the studied web, occupying trophic levels intermediate between 3.66 and 4.61, while plankton was at the lowest trophic level. Perfluorinated carboxylates (PFCAs) with 9–12 carbons were significantly biomagnified, with trophic magnification factors (TMFs) ranging from 2.1 to 3.7. The TMF of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) (2.9) was generally comparable to or lower than those of the PFCAs in the same food web. All hazard ratio (HR) values reported for PFOS and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) were less than unity, suggesting that the detected levels would not cause any immediate health effects to the people in Taihu Lake region through the consumption of shrimps and fish. -- Highlights: • Biomagnification of PFCs in the food web of a eutrophic freshwater lake was studied. • Carnivorous fish and egret were the top predators while plankton was at the lowest trophic level. • PFCAs with 9–12 carbons were significantly biomagnified. • TMF of PFOS was comparable to or lower than those of the PFCAs in the same food web. • PFOS and PFOA would not cause health effects to the people via diet consumption. -- PFCs were found to be bioaccumulated and biomagnified in a food web from a eutrophic freshwater lake in subtropical area

  13. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  14. Optical properties and composition changes in chromophoric dissolved organic matter along trophic gradients: Implications for monitoring and assessing lake eutrophication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Shi, Kun; Qin, Boqiang; Yao, Xiaolong; Zhang, Yibo

    2017-12-26

    Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an important optically active substance in aquatic environments and plays a key role in light attenuation and in the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles. Although the optical properties, abundance, sources, cycles, compositions and remote sensing estimations of CDOM have been widely reported in different aquatic environments, little is known about the optical properties and composition changes in CDOM along trophic gradients. Therefore, we collected 821 samples from 22 lakes along a trophic gradient (oligotrophic to eutrophic) in China from 2004 to 2015 and determined the CDOM spectral absorption and nutrient concentrations. The total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll a (Chla) concentrations and the Secchi disk depth (SDD) ranged from 0.02 to 24.75 mg/L, 0.002-3.471 mg/L, 0.03-882.66 μg/L, and 0.05-17.30 m, respectively. The trophic state index (TSI) ranged from 1.55 to 98.91 and covered different trophic states, from oligotrophic to hyper-eutrophic. The CDOM absorption coefficient at 254 nm (a(254)) ranged from 1.68 to 92.65 m -1 . Additionally, the CDOM sources and composition parameters, including the spectral slope and relative molecular size value, exhibited a substantial variability from the oligotrophic level to other trophic levels. The natural logarithm value of the CDOM absorption, lna(254), is highly linearly correlated with the TSI (r 2  = 0.92, p 10 m -1 , respectively. The results suggested that the CDOM absorption coefficient a(254) might be a more sensitive single indicator of the trophic state than TN, TP, Chla and SDD. Therefore, we proposed a CDOM absorption coefficient and determined the threshold for defining the trophic state of a lake. Several advantages of measuring and estimating CDOM, including rapid experimental measurements, potential in situ optical sensor measurements and large-spatial-scale remote sensing estimations, make it

  15. Effects of sexual dimorphism and landscape composition on the trophic behavior of Greater Prairie-Chicken.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Blanco-Fontao

    Full Text Available Partitioning of ecological niche is expected in lekking species that show marked sexual size dimorphism as a consequence of sex-specific ecological constraints. However, niche partitioning is uncertain in species with moderate sexual dimorphism. In addition, the ecological niche of a species may also be affected by landscape composition; particularly, agricultural fragmentation may greatly influence the trophic behavior of herbivores. We studied trophic niche variation in Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido, a grouse species that shows moderate sex-dimorphism. Greater Prairie-Chickens are native to tallgrass prairies of North America, although populations persist in less natural mosaics of cropland and native habitats. We used stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen in blood, claws and feathers to assess seasonal differences in trophic niche breadth and individual specialization between male and female Greater Prairie-Chickens, and between birds living in continuous and fragmented landscapes. We found that females showed broader niches and higher individual specialization than males, especially in winter and autumn. However, differences between females and males were smaller in spring when birds converge at leks, suggesting that females and males may exhibit similar feeding behaviors during the lekking period. In addition, we found that birds living in native prairies showed greater annual trophic variability than conspecifics in agricultural mosaic landscapes. Native habitats may provide greater dietary diversity, resulting in greater diversity of feeding strategies.

  16. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  17. Trophic complexity and the adaptive value of damage-induced plant volatiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Kaplan

    Full Text Available Indirect plant defenses are those facilitating the action of carnivores in ridding plants of their herbivorous consumers, as opposed to directly poisoning or repelling them. Of the numerous and diverse indirect defensive strategies employed by plants, inducible volatile production has garnered the most fascination among plant-insect ecologists. These volatile chemicals are emitted in response to feeding by herbivorous arthropods and serve to guide predators and parasitic wasps to their prey. Implicit in virtually all discussions of plant volatile-carnivore interactions is the premise that plants "call for help" to bodyguards that serve to boost plant fitness by limiting herbivore damage. This, by necessity, assumes a three-trophic level food chain where carnivores benefit plants, a theoretical framework that is conceptually tractable and convenient, but poorly depicts the complexity of food-web dynamics occurring in real communities. Recent work suggests that hyperparasitoids, top consumers acting from the fourth trophic level, exploit the same plant volatile cues used by third trophic level carnivores. Further, hyperparasitoids shift their foraging preferences, specifically cueing in to the odor profile of a plant being damaged by a parasitized herbivore that contains their host compared with damage from an unparasitized herbivore. If this outcome is broadly representative of plant-insect food webs at large, it suggests that damage-induced volatiles may not always be beneficial to plants with major implications for the evolution of anti-herbivore defense and manipulating plant traits to improve biological control in agricultural crops.

  18. Trophic Effects of Dental Pulp Stem Cells on Schwann Cells in Peripheral Nerve Regeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Tsubasa; Osako, Yohei; Ito, Masataka; Murakami, Masashi; Hayashi, Yuki; Horibe, Hiroshi; Iohara, Koichiro; Takeuchi, Norio; Okui, Nobuyuki; Hirata, Hitoshi; Nakayama, Hidenori; Kurita, Kenichi; Nakashima, Misako

    2016-01-01

    Recently, mesenchymal stem cells have demonstrated a potential for neurotrophy and neurodifferentiation. We have recently isolated mobilized dental pulp stem cells (MDPSCs) using granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) gradient, which has high neurotrophic/angiogenic potential. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of MDPSC transplantation on peripheral nerve regeneration. Effects of MDPSC transplantation were examined in a rat sciatic nerve defect model and compared with autografts and control conduits containing collagen scaffold. Effects of conditioned medium of MDPSCs were also evaluated in vitro. Transplantation of MDPSCs in the defect demonstrated regeneration of myelinated fibers, whose axons were significantly higher in density compared with those in autografts and control conduits only. Enhanced revascularization was also observed in the MDPSC transplants. The MDPSCs did not directly differentiate into Schwann cell phenotype; localization of these cells near Schwann cells induced several neurotrophic factors. Immunofluorescence labeling demonstrated reduced apoptosis and increased proliferation in resident Schwann cells in the MDPSC transplant compared with control conduits. These trophic effects of MDPSCs on proliferation, migration, and antiapoptosis in Schwann cells were further elucidated in vitro. The results demonstrate that MDPSCs promote axon regeneration through trophic functions, acting on Schwann cells, and promoting angiogenesis.

  19. A comparison of community and trophic structure in five marine ecosystems based on energy budgets and system metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaichas, Sarah; Skaret, Georg; Falk-Petersen, Jannike; Link, Jason S.; Overholtz, William; Megrey, Bernard A.; Gjøsæter, Harald; Stockhausen, William T.; Dommasnes, Are; Friedland, Kevin D.; Aydin, Kerim

    2009-04-01

    Energy budget models for five marine ecosystems were compared to identify differences and similarities in trophic and community structure. We examined the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the combined Norwegian/Barents Seas in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Comparable energy budgets were constructed for each ecosystem by aggregating information for similar species groups into consistent functional groups. Several ecosystem indices (e.g., functional group production, consumption and biomass ratios, cumulative biomass, food web macrodescriptors, and network metrics) were compared for each ecosystem. The comparative approach clearly identified data gaps for each ecosystem, an important outcome of this work. Commonalities across the ecosystems included overall high primary production and energy flow at low trophic levels, high production and consumption by carnivorous zooplankton, and similar proportions of apex predator to lower trophic level biomass. Major differences included distinct biomass ratios of pelagic to demersal fish, ranging from highest in the combined Norwegian/Barents ecosystem to lowest in the Alaskan systems, and notable differences in primary production per unit area, highest in the Alaskan and Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine ecosystems, and lowest in the Norwegian ecosystems. While comparing a disparate group of organisms across a wide range of marine ecosystems is challenging, this work demonstrates that standardized metrics both elucidate properties common to marine ecosystems and identify key distinctions useful for fisheries management.

  20. Application of indicator kriging to the complementary use of bioindicators at three trophic levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueira, Rui; Tavares, Paula C.; Palma, Luis; Beja, Pedro; Sergio, Cecilia

    2009-01-01

    The use of biological indicators is widespread in environmental monitoring, although it has long been recognised that each bioindicator is generally associated with a range of potential limitations and shortcomings. To circumvent this problem, this study adopted the complementary use of bioindicators representing different trophic levels and providing different type of information, in an innovative approach to integrate knowledge and to estimate the overall health state of ecosystems. The approach is illustrated using mercury contamination in primary producers (mosses), primary consumers (domestic pigeons and red-legged partridges) and top predators (Bonelli's eagles) in southern Portugal. Indicator kriging geostatistics was used to identify the areas where mercury concentration was higher than the median for each species, and to produce an index that combines mercury contamination across trophic levels. Spatial patterns of mercury contamination were consistent across species. The combined index provided a new level of information useful in incorporating measures of overall environmental contamination into pollution studies. - Mercury levels in bioindicators at three trophic levels were combined using geostatistics to build an integrated environmental contamination index.

  1. Application of indicator kriging to the complementary use of bioindicators at three trophic levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueira, Rui, E-mail: rui.figueira@iict.p [Jardim Botanico Tropical, Instituto de Investigacao Cientifica Tropical, Trav. Conde da Ribeira, 9, 1300-142 Lisboa (Portugal); CERENA, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Tavares, Paula C. [CVRM-Geo-Systems Centre, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Palma, Luis [CCMAR, Universidade do Algarve, FCMA, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro (Portugal); Beja, Pedro [ERENA, Ordenamento e Gestao de Recursos Naturais, Rua Robalo Gouveia, 1-1A, 1900-392 Lisboa (Portugal); CIBIO, Centro de Investigacao em Biodiversidade e Recursos Geneticos, Campus Agrario de Vairao, Universidade do Porto, Vairao (Portugal); Sergio, Cecilia [Jardim Botanico, Museu Nacional de Historia Natural, Universidade de Lisboa, R. Escola Politecnica, 58, 1250-102 Lisboa (Portugal); CBA, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edificio C2, 1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2009-10-15

    The use of biological indicators is widespread in environmental monitoring, although it has long been recognised that each bioindicator is generally associated with a range of potential limitations and shortcomings. To circumvent this problem, this study adopted the complementary use of bioindicators representing different trophic levels and providing different type of information, in an innovative approach to integrate knowledge and to estimate the overall health state of ecosystems. The approach is illustrated using mercury contamination in primary producers (mosses), primary consumers (domestic pigeons and red-legged partridges) and top predators (Bonelli's eagles) in southern Portugal. Indicator kriging geostatistics was used to identify the areas where mercury concentration was higher than the median for each species, and to produce an index that combines mercury contamination across trophic levels. Spatial patterns of mercury contamination were consistent across species. The combined index provided a new level of information useful in incorporating measures of overall environmental contamination into pollution studies. - Mercury levels in bioindicators at three trophic levels were combined using geostatistics to build an integrated environmental contamination index.

  2. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  3. Chemical composition and trophic state of shallow saline steppe lakes in central Asia (North Kazakhstan).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boros, Emil; Jurecska, Laura; Tatár, Enikő; Vörös, Lajos; Kolpakova, Marina

    2017-10-09

    The purpose of this study was to identify the prevailing chemical composition and trophic state of the shallow saline steppe lakes of North Kazakhstan along a wide size range (SO 4 and Na-Cl (n = 16; 64%); the Ca, Mg, HCO 3 , and SO 4 ions precipitate with increasing salinity (2-322 g L -1 ); and ion composition shifts from Na>Mg-Cl>SO 4 to Na-Cl. The most of the chemical variables positively, but chlorophyll a negatively, correlated with total dissolved solids, and the total phosphorus had no significant correlation with any variables. The trophic state of these lakes in most cases exceeded the hypertrophic level. The increase in salinity causes change in chemical composition and effects on the phytoplankton development independently from the size of water surface, and the human disturbances had negligible effect on the trophic state of shallow saline lakes in this region of Kazakhstan.

  4. [Effects of different trophic modes on growth characteristics, metabolism and cellular components of Chlorella vulgaris].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Weibao; Wang, Yang; Yang, Hong; Xi, Yuqin; Han, Rui; Niu, Shiquan

    2015-03-04

    We studied the effects of trophic modes related to glucose and light (photoautotrophy, mixotrophy and heterotrophy) on growth, cellular components and carbon metabolic pathway of Chlorella vulgaris. The parameters about growth of algal cells were investigated by using spectroscopy and chromatography techniques. When trophic mode changed from photoautotrophy to mixotrophy and to heterotrophy successively, the concentrations of soluble sugar, lipid and saturated C16/C18 fatty acids in C. vulgaris increased, whereas the concentrations of unsaturated C16, C18 fatty acids, proteins, photosynthetic pigments and 18 relative amino acids decreased. Light and glucose affect the growth, metabolism and the biochemical components biosynthesis of C. vulgaris. Addition of glucose can promote algal biomass accumulation, stimulate the synthesis of carbonaceous components, but inhibit nitrogenous components. Under illumination cultivation, concentration and consumption level of glucose decided the main trophic modes of C. vulgaris. Mixotrophic and heterotrophic cultivation could promote the growth of algal cells.

  5. Microbes are trophic analogues of arthropods, mammals, and fish: Isotopic fingerprinting unites ‘green’ and ‘brown’ food webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    This work addresses a cross-cutting issue within the field of food-web ecology—the integration of the microbiome into trophic hierarchies. The nature and degree to which microbes may reconfigure the trophic identities of carnivore and omnivore groups have remained surprisingly unresolved. This means...

  6. The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audzijonyte, Asta; Kuparinen, Anna

    2016-08-01

    Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life-history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life-history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards "faster" life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3-40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra- and inter-specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life-history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi-species context, where both age-specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life-history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  8. Trophic transfer of gold nanoparticles from Euglena gracilis or Chlamydomonas reinhardtii to Daphnia magna

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Woo-Mi; Yoon, Sung-Ji; Shin, Yu-Jin; An, Youn-Joo

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the trophic transfer of nanoparticles (NPs) is important because NPs are small enough to easily penetrate into organisms. In this study, we evaluated the trophic transfer of gold NPs (AuNPs) within the aquatic food chain. We observed AuNPs transfer from 2 species of primary producers (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii or Euglena gracilis) to the primary consumer (Daphnia magna). Also, bioaccumulation of AuNPs in E. gracilis was higher than that in C. reinhardtii. The reasons for the difference in Au accumulation may be the physical structure of these organisms, and the surface area that is available for interaction with NPs. C. reinhardtii has a cell wall that may act as a barrier to the penetration of NPs. The size of E. gracilis is larger than that of C. reinhardtii. This study demonstrates the trophic transfer of AuNPs from a general producer to a consumer in an aquatic environment. - Highlights: • This study evaluated the trophic transfer of AuNPs in an aquatic food chain. • Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Euglena gracilis were selected as the primary producers. • Daphnia magna was used as the primary consumer. • The bioaccumulation of AuNPs in E. gracilis was higher than that in C. reinhardtii. • AuNPs were transferred from C. reinhardtii and E. gracilis to D. magna. - Gold nanoparticles can transfer from primary producers (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii or Euglena gracilis) to the primary consumer (Daphnia magna) in an aquatic environment

  9. Trophic structure and mercury biomagnification in tropical fish assemblages, Iténez River, Bolivia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Pouilly

    Full Text Available We examined mercury concentrations in three fish assemblages to estimate biomagnification rates in the Iténez main river, affected by anthropogenic activities, and two unperturbed rivers from the Iténez basin, Bolivian Amazon. Rivers presented low to moderate water mercury concentrations (from 1.25 ng L(-1 to 2.96 ng L(-1 and natural differences in terms of sediment load. Mercury biomagnification rates were confronted to trophic structure depicted by carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes composition (δ(15N; δ(13C of primary trophic sources, invertebrates and fishes. Results showed a slight fish contamination in the Iténez River compared to the unperturbed rivers, with higher mercury concentrations in piscivore species (0.15 µg g(-1 vs. 0.11 µg g(-1 in the unperturbed rivers and a higher biomagnification rate. Trophic structure analysis showed that the higher biomagnification rate in the Iténez River could not be attributed to a longer food chain. Nevertheless, it revealed for the Iténez River a higher contribution of periphyton to the diet of the primary consumers fish species; and more negative δ(13C values for primary trophic sources, invertebrates and fishes that could indicate a higher contribution of methanotrophic bacteria. These two factors may enhance methylation and methyl mercury transfer in the food web and thus, alternatively or complementarily to the impact of the anthropogenic activities, may explain mercury differences observed in fishes from the Iténez River in comparison to the two other rivers.

  10. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  11. Multispecies interactions across trophic levels at macroscales: retrospective and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kissling, W.D.; Schleuning, M.

    2015-01-01

    Trophic interactions among multiple species are ubiquitous in nature and their importance for structuring ecological communities has been extensively demonstrated at local spatial scales. However, how local species interactions scale-up to large spatial scales and how they contribute to shape

  12. Trophic cascades linking wolves (Canis lupus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and small mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, B.J.; Harlow, H.J.; Harlow, T.S.; Biggins, D.; Ripple, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    When large carnivores are extirpated from ecosystems that evolved with apex predators, these systems can change at the herbivore and plant trophic levels. Such changes across trophic levels are called cascading effects and they are very important to conservation. Studies on the effects of reintroduced wolves in Yellowstone National Park have examined the interaction pathway of wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758) to ungulates to plants. This study examines the interaction effects of wolves to coyotes to rodents (reversing mesopredator release in the absence of wolves). Coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) generally avoided areas near a wolf den. However, when in the proximity of a den, they used woody habitats (pine or sage) compared with herbaceous habitats (grass or forb or sedge)- when they were away from the wolf den. Our data suggested a significant increase in rodent numbers, particularly voles (genus Microtus Schrank, 1798), during the 3-year study on plots that were within 3 km of the wolf den, but we did not detect a significant change in rodent numbers over time for more distant plots. Predation by coyotes may have depressed numbers of small mammals in areas away from the wolf den. These factors indicate a top-down effect by wolves on coyotes and subsequently on the rodents of the area. Restoration of wolves could be a powerful tool for regulating predation at lower trophic levels.

  13. Inhibition of predator attraction to kairomones by non-host plant volatiles for herbivores: a bypass-trophic signal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-He Zhang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Insect predators and parasitoids exploit attractive chemical signals from lower trophic levels as kairomones to locate their herbivore prey and hosts. We hypothesized that specific chemical cues from prey non-hosts and non-habitats, which are not part of the trophic chain, are also recognized by predators and would inhibit attraction to the host/prey kairomone signals. To test our hypothesis, we studied the olfactory physiology and behavior of a predaceous beetle, Thanasimus formicarius (L. (Coleoptera: Cleridae, in relation to specific angiosperm plant volatiles, which are non-host volatiles (NHV for its conifer-feeding bark beetle prey.Olfactory detection in the clerid was confirmed by gas chromatography coupled to electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD for a subset of NHV components. Among NHV, we identified two strongly antennally active molecules, 3-octanol and 1-octen-3-ol. We tested the potential inhibition of the combination of these two NHV on the walking and flight responses of the clerid to known kairomonal attractants such as synthetic mixtures of bark beetle (Ips spp. aggregation pheromone components (cis-verbenol, ipsdienol, and E-myrcenol combined with conifer (Picea and Pinus spp. monoterpenes (alpha-pinene, terpinolene, and Delta(3-carene. There was a strong inhibitory effect, both in the laboratory (effect size d = -3.2, walking bioassay and in the field (d = -1.0, flight trapping. This is the first report of combining antennal detection (GC-EAD and behavioral responses to identify semiochemical molecules that bypass the trophic system, signaling habitat information rather than food related information.Our results, along with recent reports on hymenopteran parasitoids and coleopteran predators, suggest that some NHV chemicals for herbivores are part of specific behavioral signals for the higher trophic level and not part of a background noise. Such bypass-trophic signals could be of general importance for third trophic level

  14. MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

  15. Food web analysis reveals effects of pH on mercury bioaccumulation at multiple trophic levels in streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardine, Timothy D.; Kidd, Karen A.; O’ Driscoll, Nelson

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine biomagnification of Hg through stream food webs using δ15 N. ► Slopes of methyl Hg vs. trophic level were higher than total Hg vs. trophic level. ► Biomagnification from predatory insects to fish was related to pH of the water. ► Biomagnification at lower trophic levels was related to dietary concentrations. ► These trends can explain variation in field-measured Hg in food webs. -- Abstract: Biomagnification processes and the factors that govern them, including those for mercury (Hg), are poorly understood in streams. Total and methyl Hg concentrations and relative trophic position (using δ 15 N) were analyzed in biofilm and invertebrates from 21 streams in New Brunswick, Canada to assess food web biomagnification leading to the common minnow blacknose dace (Rhinichthys atratulus), a species known to have Hg concentrations that are higher in low pH waters. Biomagnification slopes within stream food webs measured using Hg vs. δ 15 N or corresponding trophic levels (TL) differed depending on the chemical species analyzed, with total Hg exhibiting increases of 1.3–2.5 per TL (mean slope of total Hg vs. δ 15 N = 0.14 ± 0.06 S.D., range = 0.06–0.20) and methyl Hg showing a more pronounced increase of 2.8 to 6.0 per TL (mean slope of methyl Hg vs. δ 15 N = 0.30 ± 0.08 S.D., range = 0.22–0.39). While Hg biomagnification slopes through the entire food web (Trophic Magnification Factors, TMFs) were not influenced by water chemistry (pH), dietary concentrations of methyl Hg strongly influenced biomagnification factors (BMFs) for consumer-diet pairs within the food web at lower trophic levels, and BMFs between dace and predatory invertebrates were significantly higher in low pH waters. These analyses, coupled with observations of higher Hg in primary producers in streams with low pH, suggest that pH influences both baseline concentrations and biomagnification of Hg in these systems. Because higher Hg concentrations in the diets

  16. Food web analysis reveals effects of pH on mercury bioaccumulation at multiple trophic levels in streams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jardine, Timothy D., E-mail: tim.jardine@usask.ca [Canadian Rivers Institute and Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, NB E2L 4L5 (Canada); Kidd, Karen A. [Canadian Rivers Institute and Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, NB E2L 4L5 (Canada); O’ Driscoll, Nelson [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Acadia University, Wolfville, NS B4P 2R6 (Canada)

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► We examine biomagnification of Hg through stream food webs using δ15 N. ► Slopes of methyl Hg vs. trophic level were higher than total Hg vs. trophic level. ► Biomagnification from predatory insects to fish was related to pH of the water. ► Biomagnification at lower trophic levels was related to dietary concentrations. ► These trends can explain variation in field-measured Hg in food webs. -- Abstract: Biomagnification processes and the factors that govern them, including those for mercury (Hg), are poorly understood in streams. Total and methyl Hg concentrations and relative trophic position (using δ{sup 15}N) were analyzed in biofilm and invertebrates from 21 streams in New Brunswick, Canada to assess food web biomagnification leading to the common minnow blacknose dace (Rhinichthys atratulus), a species known to have Hg concentrations that are higher in low pH waters. Biomagnification slopes within stream food webs measured using Hg vs. δ{sup 15}N or corresponding trophic levels (TL) differed depending on the chemical species analyzed, with total Hg exhibiting increases of 1.3–2.5 per TL (mean slope of total Hg vs. δ{sup 15}N = 0.14 ± 0.06 S.D., range = 0.06–0.20) and methyl Hg showing a more pronounced increase of 2.8 to 6.0 per TL (mean slope of methyl Hg vs. δ{sup 15}N = 0.30 ± 0.08 S.D., range = 0.22–0.39). While Hg biomagnification slopes through the entire food web (Trophic Magnification Factors, TMFs) were not influenced by water chemistry (pH), dietary concentrations of methyl Hg strongly influenced biomagnification factors (BMFs) for consumer-diet pairs within the food web at lower trophic levels, and BMFs between dace and predatory invertebrates were significantly higher in low pH waters. These analyses, coupled with observations of higher Hg in primary producers in streams with low pH, suggest that pH influences both baseline concentrations and biomagnification of Hg in these systems. Because higher Hg

  17. Mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from a remote lake in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo-Silva, Claudio Eduardo; Almeida, Ronaldo; Carvalho, Dario P; Ometto, Jean P H B; de Camargo, Plínio B; Dorneles, Paulo R; Azeredo, Antonio; Bastos, Wanderley R; Malm, Olaf; Torres, João P M

    2016-11-01

    The present study assesses mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake, Brazilian Amazon. In addition to mercury determination, the investigation comprised the calculation of Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) and Trophic Magnification Slope (TMS), through the measurements of stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) in fish samples. These assessments were executed in two different scenarios, i.e., considering (1) all fish species or (2) only the resident fish (excluding the migratory species). Bottom litter, superficial sediment and seston were the sources used for generating the trophic position (TP) data used in the calculation of the TMF. Samples from 84 fish were analysed, comprising 13 species, which were categorized into four trophic guilds: iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous fish. The δ 13 C values pointed to the separation of the ichthyofauna into two groups. One group comprised iliophagous and planktivorous species, which are linked to the food chains of phytoplankton and detritus. The other group was composed by omnivorous and piscivorous fish, which are associated to the trophic webs of phytoplankton, bottom litter, detritus, periphyton, as well as to food chains of igapó (blackwater-flooded Amazonian forests). The TP values suggest that the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake is part of a short food web, with three well-characterized trophic levels. Mercury concentrations and δ 13 C values point to multiple sources for Hg input and transfer. The similarity in Hg levels and TP values between piscivorous and planktivorous fish suggests a comparable efficiency for the transfer of this metal through pelagic and littoral food chains. Regarding the two abovementioned scenarios, i.e., considering (1) the entire ichthyofauna and (2) only the resident species, the TMF values were 5.25 and 4.49, as well as the TMS values were 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. These findings

  18. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  19. Categorization of the trophic status of a hydroelectric power plant reservoir in the Brazilian Amazon by statistical analyses and fuzzy approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa Lobato, Tarcísio; Hauser-Davis, Rachel Ann; de Oliveira, Terezinha Ferreira; Maciel, Marinalva Cardoso; Tavares, Maria Regina Madruga; da Silveira, Antônio Morais; Saraiva, Augusto Cesar Fonseca

    2015-02-15

    The Amazon area has been increasingly suffering from anthropogenic impacts, especially due to the construction of hydroelectric power plant reservoirs. The analysis and categorization of the trophic status of these reservoirs are of interest to indicate man-made changes in the environment. In this context, the present study aimed to categorize the trophic status of a hydroelectric power plant reservoir located in the Brazilian Amazon by constructing a novel Water Quality Index (WQI) and Trophic State Index (TSI) for the reservoir using major ion concentrations and physico-chemical water parameters determined in the area and taking into account the sampling locations and the local hydrological regimes. After applying statistical analyses (factor analysis and cluster analysis) and establishing a rule base of a fuzzy system to these indicators, the results obtained by the proposed method were then compared to the generally applied Carlson and a modified Lamparelli trophic state index (TSI), specific for trophic regions. The categorization of the trophic status by the proposed fuzzy method was shown to be more reliable, since it takes into account the specificities of the study area, while the Carlson and Lamparelli TSI do not, and, thus, tend to over or underestimate the trophic status of these ecosystems. The statistical techniques proposed and applied in the present study, are, therefore, relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, aiding in the identification of the ecological status of water bodies. With this, it is possible to identify which factors should be further investigated and/or adjusted in order to attempt the recovery of degraded water bodies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Trigeminal Trophic Syndrome Associated With the Use of Synthetic Marijuana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Fawad A; Manacheril, Rinu; Ulep, Robin; Martin, Julie E; Chimakurthy, Anil

    2017-01-01

    Trigeminal trophic syndrome (TTS) is an uncommon disorder of the trigeminal nerve tract and trigeminal brainstem nucleus. The syndrome is characterized by a triad of unilateral crescentic ulcers with anesthesia and paresthesias of the involved trigeminal dermatomes. A 24-year-old right-handed black female presented to our emergency department with a 4-week history of rapidly progressive painless desquamation/denudation of skin over her right face and scalp. Four weeks prior, she had been admitted to another institution for seizures and was diagnosed with seizures provoked by synthetic marijuana use. She was afebrile during her initial presentation at our institution. Dermatologic examination revealed denudation of the epidermis and partial dermis over the right frontal, parietal, and temporal scalp with associated alopecia. To our knowledge, the association of disorders of the trigeminal nerve pathway, including TTS, with the use of synthetic marijuana has not been previously reported. The long-term neurologic effects of synthetic marijuana are difficult to predict, and the pathologic underpinnings of TTS are largely unknown. Further studies dedicated to exploring the underlying molecular and cellular mechanisms may translate into effective therapies and approaches to halt and reverse the process and prevent tissue destruction and cosmetic disfigurement.

  1. Review of Lepidoptera with trophic relationships to Picea abies (L. in the conditions of Czechia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modlinger Roman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Trophic relationships of Lepidoptera (Insecta occurring in the territory of Czechia to the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. was evaluated on the basis of the excerption and critical evaluation of literature. Each species was classified into the following categories – spruce as the host plant, regular development on spruce, narrow trophic relationship, indirect relationship and episodical occurrence. The particular taxa were also characterized according to their distribution and the form of larval life was specified. The development on spruce was documented in 96 species of Lepidoptera, which represented less than 3% of taxa belonging to this group and being reported from Czechia. Of that, spruce was a common host plant for 67 species, 23 species were polyphagous and might develop on spruce, and 6 species belonged to soil species damaging spruce roots, mainly in forest nurseries. Among the species of Lepidoptera, which regularly develop on spruce in the Czech conditions, 55 species were classified. As narrow specialists with special trophic relationship to spruce, 33 taxa could be considered. There were 15 spruce species with forestry importance, which were able to outbreak their populations regularly or irregularly. Among spruce species it was possible to classify 16 taxa as rare. The provided information on Lepidoptera with trophic relationship to spruce is applicable also for other Central European areas. Besides the species with importance for forest pest management, also rare taxa, which can become endangered by climate change or by forest management, were indicated.

  2. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  3. Landscape variation influences trophic cascades in dengue vector food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weterings, Robbie; Umponstira, Chanin; Buckley, Hannah L

    2018-02-01

    The epidemiology of vector-borne diseases is governed by a structured array of correlative and causative factors, including landscape (for example, rural versus urban), abiotic (for example, weather), and biotic (for example, food web) factors. Studies of mosquito-borne diseases rarely address these multiple factors at large spatial scales, which limits insights into how human alterations of landscapes and food webs alter mosquito abundance. We used structural equation modeling to identify the relative magnitude and direction of landscape, abiotic, and food web factors on Aedes larvae and adults across 70 sites in northern Thailand. Food web factors were modeled as mosquito-predator trophic cascades. Landscape context affected mosquito-predator communities in aquatic and terrestrial environments via cascading food web interactions. Several mosquito predators within these food webs showed potential as biocontrol agents in mosquito population control, but their potentials for control were landscape-dependent. In terrestrial food webs, the habitat-sensitive tokay gecko structured mosquito-predator communities, indicating that a conservation approach to vector control could be a useful addition to existing control efforts.

  4. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  5. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  6. Genomic prediction of complex human traits: relatedness, trait architecture and predictive meta-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167

  7. Tri-trophic insecticidal effects of African plants against cabbage pests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blankson W Amoabeng

    Full Text Available Botanical insecticides are increasingly attracting research attention as they offer novel modes of action that may provide effective control of pests that have already developed resistance to conventional insecticides. They potentially offer cost-effective pest control to smallholder farmers in developing countries if highly active extracts can be prepared simply from readily available plants. Field cage and open field experiments were conducted to evaluate the insecticidal potential of nine common Ghanaian plants: goat weed, Ageratum conyzoides (Asteraceae, Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata (Asteraceae, Cinderella weed, Synedrella nodiflora (Asteraceae, chili pepper, Capsicum frutescens (Solanaceae, tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum (Solanaceae cassia, Cassia sophera (Leguminosae, physic nut, Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae, castor oil plant, Ricinus communis (Euphorbiaceae and basil, Ocimum gratissimum (Lamiaceae. In field cage experiments, simple detergent and water extracts of all botanical treatments gave control of cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae and diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, equivalent to the synthetic insecticide Attack® (emamectin benzoate and superior to water or detergent solution. In open field experiments in the major and minor rainy seasons using a sub-set of plant extracts (A. conyzoides, C. odorata, S. nodiflora, N. tabacum and R. communis, all controlled B. brassicae and P. xylostella more effectively than water control and comparably with or better than Attack®. Botanical and water control treatments were more benign to third trophic level predators than Attack®. Effects cascaded to the first trophic level with all botanical treatments giving cabbage head weights, comparable to Attack® in the minor season. In the major season, R. communis and A conyzoides treatment gave lower head yields than Attack® but the remaining botanicals were equivalent or superior to this synthetic insecticide. Simply-prepared extracts from

  8. Tri-trophic insecticidal effects of African plants against cabbage pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoabeng, Blankson W; Gurr, Geoff M; Gitau, Catherine W; Nicol, Helen I; Munyakazi, Louis; Stevenson, Phil C

    2013-01-01

    Botanical insecticides are increasingly attracting research attention as they offer novel modes of action that may provide effective control of pests that have already developed resistance to conventional insecticides. They potentially offer cost-effective pest control to smallholder farmers in developing countries if highly active extracts can be prepared simply from readily available plants. Field cage and open field experiments were conducted to evaluate the insecticidal potential of nine common Ghanaian plants: goat weed, Ageratum conyzoides (Asteraceae), Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata (Asteraceae), Cinderella weed, Synedrella nodiflora (Asteraceae), chili pepper, Capsicum frutescens (Solanaceae), tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum (Solanaceae) cassia, Cassia sophera (Leguminosae), physic nut, Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae), castor oil plant, Ricinus communis (Euphorbiaceae) and basil, Ocimum gratissimum (Lamiaceae). In field cage experiments, simple detergent and water extracts of all botanical treatments gave control of cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae and diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, equivalent to the synthetic insecticide Attack® (emamectin benzoate) and superior to water or detergent solution. In open field experiments in the major and minor rainy seasons using a sub-set of plant extracts (A. conyzoides, C. odorata, S. nodiflora, N. tabacum and R. communis), all controlled B. brassicae and P. xylostella more effectively than water control and comparably with or better than Attack®. Botanical and water control treatments were more benign to third trophic level predators than Attack®. Effects cascaded to the first trophic level with all botanical treatments giving cabbage head weights, comparable to Attack® in the minor season. In the major season, R. communis and A conyzoides treatment gave lower head yields than Attack® but the remaining botanicals were equivalent or superior to this synthetic insecticide. Simply-prepared extracts from readily

  9. Tri-Trophic Insecticidal Effects of African Plants against Cabbage Pests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoabeng, Blankson W.; Gurr, Geoff M.; Gitau, Catherine W.; Nicol, Helen I.; Stevenson, Phil C.

    2013-01-01

    Botanical insecticides are increasingly attracting research attention as they offer novel modes of action that may provide effective control of pests that have already developed resistance to conventional insecticides. They potentially offer cost-effective pest control to smallholder farmers in developing countries if highly active extracts can be prepared simply from readily available plants. Field cage and open field experiments were conducted to evaluate the insecticidal potential of nine common Ghanaian plants: goat weed, Ageratum conyzoides (Asteraceae), Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata (Asteraceae), Cinderella weed, Synedrella nodiflora (Asteraceae), chili pepper, Capsicum frutescens (Solanaceae), tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum (Solanaceae) cassia, Cassia sophera (Leguminosae), physic nut, Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae), castor oil plant, Ricinus communis (Euphorbiaceae) and basil, Ocimum gratissimum (Lamiaceae). In field cage experiments, simple detergent and water extracts of all botanical treatments gave control of cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae and diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, equivalent to the synthetic insecticide Attack® (emamectin benzoate) and superior to water or detergent solution. In open field experiments in the major and minor rainy seasons using a sub-set of plant extracts (A. conyzoides, C. odorata, S. nodiflora, N. tabacum and R. communis), all controlled B. brassicae and P. xylostella more effectively than water control and comparably with or better than Attack®. Botanical and water control treatments were more benign to third trophic level predators than Attack®. Effects cascaded to the first trophic level with all botanical treatments giving cabbage head weights, comparable to Attack® in the minor season. In the major season, R. communis and A conyzoides treatment gave lower head yields than Attack® but the remaining botanicals were equivalent or superior to this synthetic insecticide. Simply-prepared extracts from readily

  10. Functional feeding traits as predictors of invasive success of alien freshwater fish species using a food-fish model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leopold A J Nagelkerke

    Full Text Available Invasions of Ponto-Caspian fish species into north-western European river basins accelerated since the opening of the Rhine-Main-Danube Canal in 1992. Since 2002, at least five Ponto-Caspian alien fish species have arrived in The Netherlands. Four species belong to the Gobiidae family (Neogobius fluviatilis, Neogobius melanostomus, Ponticola kessleri, and Proterorhinus semilunaris and one to the Cyprinidae family (Romanogobio belingi. These species are expected to be potentially deleterious for the populations of four native benthic fish species: Gobio gobio (Cyprinidae, Barbatula barbatula (Nemacheilidae, Cottus perifretum, and C. rhenanus (Cottidae. Invasion success may be dependent on competitive trophic interactions with native species, which are enabled and/or constrained by feeding-related morphological traits. Twenty-two functional feeding traits were measured in nine species (in total 90 specimens. These traits were quantitatively linked to the mechanical, chemical and behavioral properties of a range of aquatic resource categories, using a previously developed food-fish model (FFM. The FFM was used to predict the trophic profile (TP of each fish: the combined capacities to feed on each of the resource types. The most extreme TPs belonged to three alien species, indicating that they were most specialized among the studied species. Of these three, only P. kessleri overlapped with the two native Cottus species, indicating potential trophic competition. N. fluviatilis and R. belingi did not show any overlap, indicating that there is low trophic competition. The two remaining alien goby species (N. melanostomus and P. semilunaris had average TPs and could be considered generalist feeders. They overlapped with each other and with G. gobio and B. barbatula, indicating potential trophic competition. This study suggests that both generalist and specialist species can be successful invaders. Since the FFM predicts potential interactions between

  11. Functional feeding traits as predictors of invasive success of alien freshwater fish species using a food-fish model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelkerke, Leopold A J; van Onselen, Eline; van Kessel, Nils; Leuven, Rob S E W

    2018-01-01

    Invasions of Ponto-Caspian fish species into north-western European river basins accelerated since the opening of the Rhine-Main-Danube Canal in 1992. Since 2002, at least five Ponto-Caspian alien fish species have arrived in The Netherlands. Four species belong to the Gobiidae family (Neogobius fluviatilis, Neogobius melanostomus, Ponticola kessleri, and Proterorhinus semilunaris) and one to the Cyprinidae family (Romanogobio belingi). These species are expected to be potentially deleterious for the populations of four native benthic fish species: Gobio gobio (Cyprinidae), Barbatula barbatula (Nemacheilidae), Cottus perifretum, and C. rhenanus (Cottidae). Invasion success may be dependent on competitive trophic interactions with native species, which are enabled and/or constrained by feeding-related morphological traits. Twenty-two functional feeding traits were measured in nine species (in total 90 specimens). These traits were quantitatively linked to the mechanical, chemical and behavioral properties of a range of aquatic resource categories, using a previously developed food-fish model (FFM). The FFM was used to predict the trophic profile (TP) of each fish: the combined capacities to feed on each of the resource types. The most extreme TPs belonged to three alien species, indicating that they were most specialized among the studied species. Of these three, only P. kessleri overlapped with the two native Cottus species, indicating potential trophic competition. N. fluviatilis and R. belingi did not show any overlap, indicating that there is low trophic competition. The two remaining alien goby species (N. melanostomus and P. semilunaris) had average TPs and could be considered generalist feeders. They overlapped with each other and with G. gobio and B. barbatula, indicating potential trophic competition. This study suggests that both generalist and specialist species can be successful invaders. Since the FFM predicts potential interactions between species, it

  12. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  13. Variable δ(15N diet-tissue discrimination factors among sharks: implications for trophic position, diet and food web models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill A Olin

    Full Text Available The application of stable isotopes to characterize the complexities of a species foraging behavior and trophic relationships is dependent on assumptions of δ(15N diet-tissue discrimination factors (∆(15N. As ∆(15N values have been experimentally shown to vary amongst consumers, tissues and diet composition, resolving appropriate species-specific ∆(15N values can be complex. Given the logistical and ethical challenges of controlled feeding experiments for determining ∆(15N values for large and/or endangered species, our objective was to conduct an assessment of a range of reported ∆(15N values that can hypothetically serve as surrogates for describing the predator-prey relationships of four shark species that feed on prey from different trophic levels (i.e., different mean δ(15N dietary values. Overall, the most suitable species-specific ∆(15N values decreased with increasing dietary-δ(15N values based on stable isotope Bayesian ellipse overlap estimates of shark and the principal prey functional groups contributing to the diet determined from stomach content analyses. Thus, a single ∆(15N value was not supported for this speciose group of marine predatory fishes. For example, the ∆(15N value of 3.7‰ provided the highest percent overlap between prey and predator isotope ellipses for the bonnethead shark (mean diet δ(15N = 9‰ whereas a ∆(15N value < 2.3‰ provided the highest percent overlap between prey and predator isotope ellipses for the white shark (mean diet δ(15N = 15‰. These data corroborate the previously reported inverse ∆(15N-dietary δ(15N relationship when both isotope ellipses of principal prey functional groups and the broader identified diet of each species were considered supporting the adoption of different ∆(15N values that reflect the predators' δ(15N-dietary value. These findings are critical for refining the application of stable isotope modeling approaches as inferences regarding a species

  14. Trigeminal Trophic Syndrome – Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boštjan Matos

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available 1024x768 Trigeminal trophic syndrome is a rare condition resulting from compulsive self-manipulation of the skin after a peripheral or central injury to the trigeminal system. The classic triad consists of trigeminal anesthesia, facial paresthesias, and crescentric lateral nasal alar erosion and ulceration. Although the symptoms are visibly clear, the diagnosis is not easy to establish. The appearance of the ulcers mimics many other disease entities such as neoplasm, infection, granulomatous disease, vasculitis and factitial dermatitis. Trigeminal trophic syndrome should be considered with a positive neurologic history and when laboratory and biopsy workup is inconclusive. Once diagnosis is confirmed, treatment is complicated and often multidisciplinary. We report a case of a woman who developed a strictly unilateral crescent ulcer of the ala nasi after resection of an statoacoustic neurinoma. A clinician who is faced with a patient with nasal ulceration should consider this diagnosis.     Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  15. Effects of dietary nicotine on the development of an insect herbivore, its parasitoid and secondary hyperparasitoid over four trophic levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harvey, J.A.; Dam, van N.M.; Witjes, L.M.A.; Soler, R.; Gols, R.

    2007-01-01

    1. Allelochemicals in herbivore diet are known to affect the development of higher trophic levels, such as parasitoids and predators. 2. This study examines how differing levels of nicotine affects the development of a herbivore, its parasitoid and secondary hyperparasitoid over four trophic levels.

  16. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  17. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  18. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  19. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

  20. Zooplankton trophic niches respond to different water types of the western Tasman Sea: A stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henschke, Natasha; Everett, Jason D.; Suthers, Iain M.; Smith, James A.; Hunt, Brian P. V.; Doblin, Martina A.; Taylor, Matthew D.

    2015-10-01

    The trophic relationships of 21 species from an oceanic zooplankton community were studied using stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Zooplankton and suspended particulate organic matter (POM) were sampled in three different water types in the western Tasman Sea: inner shelf (IS), a cold core eddy (CCE) and a warm core eddy (WCE). δ15N values ranged from 3.9‰ for the parasitic copepod Sapphirina augusta to 10.2‰ for the euphausiid, Euphausia spinifera. δ13C varied from -22.6 to -19.4‰ as a result of the copepod Euchirella curticauda and E. spinifera. The isotopic composition of POM varied significantly among water types; as did the trophic enrichment of zooplankton over POM, with the lowest enrichment in the recently upwelled IS water type (0.5‰) compared to the warm core eddy (1.6‰) and cold core eddy (2.7‰). The WCE was an oligotrophic environment and was associated with an increased trophic level for omnivorous zooplankton (copepods and euphausiids) to a similar level as carnivorous zooplankton (chaetognaths). Therefore carnivory in zooplankton can increase in response to lower abundance and reduced diversity in their phytoplankton and protozoan prey. Trophic niche width comparisons across three zooplankton species: the salp Thalia democratica, the copepod Eucalanus elongatus and the euphausiid Thysanoessa gregaria, indicated that both niche partitioning and competition can occur within the zooplankton community. We have shown that trophic relationships among the zooplankton are dynamic and respond to different water types. The changes to the zooplankton isotopic niche, however, were still highly variable as result of oceanographic variation within water types.

  1. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  2. Influence of trophic level, and calcification on the uptake of plutonium observed, in situ, in marine organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guary, J.C.; Fraizier, A.

    1977-01-01

    A study has been made of the transport mechanisms of plutonium in the marine environment. This work has shown that a relationship exists between the concentration of plutonium in marine plant and animal species and the trophic level of these organisms; this relation is evidenced by a decrease in the concentration of the radioelement as the trophic level of the species increases. Three modes of transport - via water, sediment and food - have been studied. Direct contact between sea water and organisms, the principal mode of transfer to marine species belonging to lower trophic levels (the primary producers and consumers), seems to play an important role in the uptake of plutonium. On the other hand, the sediment in contact with which certain species live does not appear to constitute an important transfer vector. The trophic relations between animal species lead one to assume that plutonium is transported also via the food-chain without necessarily implying that there is a concentration of the radioelement along the whole chain leading from the primary producers to the tertiary consumers. In addition, it has been possible to establish that there is a relation between the rate of plutonium uptake and the calcified structures of certain marine species comparable to that which exists in the bone tissue of terrestrial mammals. (author)

  3. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  4. Characteristics of trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls in marine organisms in Incheon North Harbor, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seung Kyu; Lee, Dong Soo; Oh, Jae Ryong

    2002-04-01

    The trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was characterized for zooplankton (primarily Paracalanus spp. and Acartia spp.), pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), shore crab (Hemigrapsus penicillatus), and goby (Acanthogobius hasta) in the aquatic system of Incheon North Harbor, Korea. The congener pattern in the species was clearly divided by the main PCB uptake route. Compared with zooplankton and oyster, the fraction of heavier homologues increased in crab and goby that take PCBs from food. Linear relationships were observed between log (fugacity in lipid/fugacity in seawater) and log Kow for all the species. For zooplankton and oyster, such an observation should not be regarded as a true absence of superhydrophobicity, because establishment of equilibrium with seawater was not evident. For crab and goby, the absence of superhydrophobicity was evidenced by the trophic transfer factor that continuously increased with Kow up to 10(7.8). These results suggest that superhydrophobicity might be species specific. The trophic transfer factors and the fugacity levels in the lipid phase indicated that bioaccumulation in crab and goby advanced beyond the level in equilibrium with seawater in the harbor basin.

  5. Trophic transfer of persistent organochlorine contaminants (OCs) within an Arctic marine food web from the southern Beaufort-Chukchi Seas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoekstra, P.F.; O'Hara, T.M.; Fisk, A.T.; Borgaa, K.; Solomon, K.R.; Muir, D.C.G.

    2003-01-01

    The trophic status and biomagnification of persistent OCs within the near-shore Beaufort-Chukchi Seas food web from Barrow, AK is discussed. - Stable isotope values (δ 13 C, δ 15 N) and concentrations of persistent organochlorine contaminants (OCs) were determined to evaluate the near-shore marine trophic status of biota and biomagnification of OCs from the southern Beaufort-Chukchi Seas (1999-2000) near Barrow, AK. The biota examined included zooplankton (Calanus spp.), fish species such as arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), and fourhorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus quadricornis), along with marine mammals, including bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas), ringed seals (Phoca hispida) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus). The isotopically derived trophic position of biota from the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas marine food web, avian fauna excluded, is similar to other coastal food webs in the Arctic. Concentrations of OCs in marine mammals were significantly greater than in fish and corresponded with determined trophic level. In general, OCs with the greatest food web magnification factors (FWMFs) were those either formed due to biotransformation (e.g. p,p'-DDE, oxychlordane) or considered recalcitrant (e.g. β-HCH, 2,4,5-Cl substituted PCBs) in most biota, whereas concentrations of OCs that are considered to be readily eliminated (e.g. γ-HCH) did not correlate with trophic level. Differences in physical-chemical properties of OCs, feeding strategy and possible biotransformation were reflected in the variable biomagnification between fish and marine mammals. The FWMFs in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas region were consistent with reported values in the Canadian Arctic and temperate food webs, but were statistically different than FWMFs from the Barents and White Seas, indicating that the spatial variability of OC contamination in top-level marine Arctic predators is

  6. Using machine learning and quantum chemistry descriptors to predict the toxicity of ionic liquids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Lingdi; Zhu, Peng; Zhao, Yongsheng; Zhao, Jihong

    2018-06-15

    Large-scale application of ionic liquids (ILs) hinges on the advancement of designable and eco-friendly nature. Research of the potential toxicity of ILs towards different organisms and trophic levels is insufficient. Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) model is applied to evaluate the toxicity of ILs towards the leukemia rat cell line (ICP-81). The structures of 57 cations and 21 anions were optimized by quantum chemistry. The electrostatic potential surface area (S EP ) and charge distribution area (S σ-profile ) descriptors are calculated and used to predict the toxicity of ILs. The performance and predictive aptitude of extreme learning machine (ELM) model are analyzed and compared with those of multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector machine (SVM) models. The highest R 2 and the lowest AARD% and RMSE of the training set, test set and total set for the ELM are observed, which validates the superior performance of the ELM than that of obtained by the MLR and SVM. The applicability domain of the model is assessed by the Williams plot. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Environmental drivers of heterogeneity in the trophic-functional structure of protozoan communities during an annual cycle in a coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangjian; Yang, Eun Jin; Xu, Henglong

    2017-08-15

    Trophic-functional groupings are an important biological trait to summarize community structure in functional space. The heterogeneity of the tropic-functional pattern of protozoan communities and its environmental drivers were studied in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea during a 1-year cycle. Samples were collected using the glass slide method at four stations within a water pollution gradient. A second-stage matrix-based analysis was used to summarize spatial variation in the annual pattern of the functional structure. A clustering analysis revealed significant variability in the trophic-functional pattern among the four stations during the 1-year cycle. The heterogeneity in the trophic-functional pattern of the communities was significantly related to changes in environmental variables, particularly ammonium-nitrogen and nitrates, alone or in combination with dissolved oxygen. These results suggest that the heterogeneity in annual patterns of protozoan trophic-functional structure may reflect water quality status in coastal ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Congener-specific accumulation and trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls in spider crab food webs revealed by stable isotope analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, N. [IFREMER, DCN-BE, Technopole Brest-Iroise, Pointe du Diable, 29280 Plouzane (France); LPTC-UMR 5472 CNRS, Universite de Bordeaux 1, 351 cours de la Liberation, 33400 Talence (France)], E-mail: bodin.nathalie@caramail.com; Le Loc' h, F. [IRD, UR 070 RAP, Centre de Recherche Halieutique, Avenue Jean Monnet, B.P. 171, 34203 Sete Cedex (France); Caisey, X.; Le Guellec, A.-M.; Abarnou, A.; Loizeau, V. [IFREMER, DCN-BE, Technopole Brest-Iroise, Pointe du Diable, 29280 Plouzane (France); Latrouite, D. [IFREMER, DCB-STH, Technopole Brest-Iroise, Pointe du Diable, 29280 Plouzane (France)

    2008-01-15

    Polychlorobiphenyls (PCB) and stable isotopes ({delta}{sup 15}N and {delta}{sup 13}C) were analyzed in the spider crab (Maja brachydactyla) food web from the Iroise Sea (Western Brittany) and the Seine Bay (Eastern English Channel). PCB concentrations were all significantly higher in organisms from the Seine Bay than those from the Iroise Sea. PCB patterns were strongly related to the feeding mode of the species, and increased influence of higher chlorinated congeners was highlighted with trophic position of the organisms. PCB concentrations (lipid normalized) were significantly related to the isotopically derived trophic level (TL) in spider crab food webs. The highest trophic magnification factors (TMFs) were calculated for the congeners with 2,4,5-substitution, and were lower in the Seine Bay compared to the Iroise Sea. The confrontation of PCB and TL data also revealed biotransformation capacity of decapod crustaceans for specific congeners based on structure-activity relations. - The influence of feeding mode and trophic position on the fate of PCBs in spider crab food webs is discussed by using a stable isotopic approach.

  9. Reciprocal Trophic Interactions and Transmission of Blood Parasites between Mosquitoes and Frogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd G. Smith

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between mosquitoes and their amphibian hosts is a unique, reciprocal trophic interaction. Instead of a one-way, predator-prey relationship, there is a cyclical dance of avoidance and attraction. This has prompted spatial and temporal synchrony between organisms, reflected in emergence time of mosquitoes in the spring and choice of habitat for oviposition. Frog-feeding mosquitoes also possess different sensory apparatuses than do their mammal-feeding counterparts. The reciprocal nature of this relationship is exploited by various blood parasites that use mechanical, salivary or trophic transmission to pass from mosquitoes to frogs. It is important to investigate the involvement of mosquitoes, frogs and parasites in this interaction in order to understand the consequences of anthropogenic actions, such as implementing biocontrol efforts against mosquitoes, and to determine potential causes of the global decline of amphibian species.

  10. Prey utilisation and trophic overlap between the non native mosquitofish and a native fish in two Mediterranean rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. KALOGIANNI

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Non native freshwater fish species have been long implicated in the decline of native Mediterranean ichthyofauna, through hybridization, disease transmission, competition for food and habitat, predation and/or ecosystem alteration; our knowledge, however, on the underlying mechanisms of these ecological impacts remains very limited. To explore the potential for trophic competition between the widespread Eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki and its co-occurring native toothcarp Valencia letourneuxi we compared resource use, feeding strategies, trophic selectivities and diet niche overlap. For this purpose, we studied two populations of the two species from a freshwater and a brackish habitat respectively, characterized by different food resource availabilities. In both habitats, the mosquitofish consumed a greater diversity of invertebrates and preyed on terrestrial invertebrates more frequently than the native toothcarp. Furthermore, in the less diverse and less rich brackish habitat, the non native relied heavily on plant material to balance a decrease in animal prey consumption and modified its individual feeding strategy, whereas these adaptive changes were not apparent in the native species. Their diet overlapped, indicating trophic competition, but this overlap was affected by resource availability variation; in the freshwater habitat, there was limited overlap in their diet, whereas in the brackish habitat, their diets and prey selectivities converged and there was high overlap in resource use, indicative of intense interspecific trophic competition. Overall, it appears that the underlying mechanism of the putative negative impacts of the mosquitofish on the declining Corfu toothcarp is mainly trophic competition, regulated by resource variability, though there is also evidence of larvae predation by the mosquitofish.

  11. Trophic structure in the Gulf of Lions marine ecosystem (north-western Mediterranean Sea) and fishing impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bănaru, D.; Mellon-Duval, C.; Roos, D.; Bigot, J.-L.; Souplet, A.; Jadaud, A.; Beaubrun, P.; Fromentin, J.-M.

    2013-02-01

    The Gulf of Lions ecosystem was described using the Ecopath mass-balance model to characterise its structure and functioning and to examine the effects of the multispecific fisheries operating in this area. The model is composed of 40 compartments, including 1 group of seabirds, 2 groups of cetaceans, 18 groups of fish, 12 groups of invertebrates, 5 groups of primary producers, detritus and discards. Input data were based on several recurrent scientific surveys, two alternative datasets for fishing data, stock assessment outputs, stomach content analyses and published information. Results showed that the functional groups were organised into five trophic levels with the highest one represented by dolphins, anglerfish, Atlantic bluefin tuna, European hake and European conger. European pilchard and European anchovy dominated in terms of fish biomass and catch. Other fish with high biomass such as Atlantic mackerel and blue whiting were highly important in the food web. Seabirds, dolphins and cuttlefish-squids represented keystone species. Important coupled pelagic-demersal-benthic interactions were described. The 7 different fisheries analysed were operating at mean trophic levels situated between 2.6 for small artisanal boats, and 4.1 for purse seines (> 24 m) targeting large pelagic fish, indicating an intensively exploited ecosystem. Large trawlers (24-40 m) had the highest impact on most of the groups considered; while purse seines (12-24 m) targeting small pelagic fish had the lowest impact. Preliminary results highlighted the importance of data sources for further ecosystem and fisheries analyses and management scenarios.

  12. Catchment land-use effects on littoral macroinvertebrates in response to local habitat structure and trophic state

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McGoff, Elaine; Sandin, Leif Leonard

    2012-01-01

    macroinvertebrate community structure: trophic status, substrate variables or riparian variables. We also investigated what influence each of these groups of variables has on the other. The impact of large scale land use patterns was also investigated, to determine if macroinvertebrates responded differently in two...... different catchment land use types: impaired and unimpaired. Partial canonical ordination analysis showed that substrate variables were the most important for describing macroinvertebrate community variation in both catchment land use classes, followed by riparian descriptors, with the trophic signal only...

  13. Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

  14. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  16. Comparison of contaminants from different trophic levels and ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, R.; Riget, F. [Department of Arctic Environment, Ministry of Environment and Energy, National Environmental Research Institute, Tagensvej 135, 4 floor, DK-2200 Copenhagen (Denmark); Cleemann, M. [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Ministry of Environment and Energy, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Aarkrog, A. [Risoe National Laboratory, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Johansen, P. [Department of Arctic Environment, Ministry of Environment and Energy, National Environmental Research Institute, Tagensvej 135, 4 floor, DK-2200 Copenhagen (Denmark); Hansen, J.C. [Risoe National Laboratory, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2000-01-17

    The present paper provides an overview of the priority contaminants and media from the Greenland part of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program. Levels and accumulation patterns of heavy metals, POPs and a radionuclide (137Cs) are compared from the terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Of the nine compounds presented, seven (Cd, Hg, Se, {sigma}PCB, {sigma}DDT, {sigma}HCH, HCB) increased in concentration towards higher trophic levels. For these contaminants the concentrations in soil and aquatic sediment were in the same order of magnitude, whereas the concentrations in marine biota were higher than found in the freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems probably due to the presence of longer food chains. Pb and 137Cs showed the reverse pattern compared with the other compounds. The concentrations in soil and aquatic sediments decreased in the order terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, which was reflected in the biota as well. Reindeer had similar or lower levels of Pb and 137Cs than lichens. Levels of Pb and 137Cs in marine biota did not show the same clear increase towards higher trophic as found for the other analysed compounds. Greenland Inuit contains considerably less mercury but higher levels of {sigma}PCB, {sigma}DDT and HCB than other Arctic marine top consumers.

  17. Modeling 137Cs bioaccumulation in the salmon–resident killer whale food web of the Northeastern Pacific following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alava, Juan José; Gobas, Frank A.P.C.

    2016-01-01

    To track the long term bioaccumulation of 137 Cs in marine organisms off the Pacific Northwest coast of Canada, we developed a time dependent bioaccumulation model for 137 Cs in a marine mammalian food web that included fish-eating resident killer whales. The model outcomes show that 137 Cs can be expected to gradually bioaccumulate in the food web over time as demonstrated by the increase of the apparent trophic magnification factor of 137 Cs, ranging from 0.76 after 1 month of exposure to 2.0 following 30 years of exposure. 137 Cs bioaccumulation is driven by relatively rapid dietary uptake rates, moderate depuration rates in lower trophic level organisms and slow elimination rates in high trophic level organisms. Model estimates of the 137 Cs activity in species of the food web, based on current measurements and forecasts of 137 Cs activities in oceanic waters and sediments off the Canadian Pacific Northwest, indicate that the long term 137 Cs activities in fish species including Pacific herring, wild Pacific salmon, sablefish and halibut will remain well below the current 137 Cs-Canada Action Level for consumption (1000 Bq/kg) following a nuclear emergency. Killer whales and Pacific salmon are expected to exhibit the largest long term 137 Cs activities and may be good sentinels for monitoring 137 Cs in the region. Assessment of the long term consequences of 137 Cs releases from the Fukushima aftermath should consider the extent of ecological magnification in addition to ocean dilution. - Highlights: • A food web bioaccumulation model to assess the biomagnification of 137 Cs is developed. • Cesium 137 exhibits bioaccumulation over time as simulated by the model. • Predicted activities in marine biota are below 137 Cs-food consumption benchmarks. • Long-term monitoring of 137 Cs in the ocean will improve the model predictions.

  18. Diet and trophic structure of the fish fauna in a subtropical ecosystem: impoundment effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosilene Luciana Delariva

    Full Text Available This study examined the diet and trophic structure of the fish fauna, over temporal and spatial scales, as affected by the impoundment of the Iguaçu River in the region of Salto Caxias, Paraná State, Brazil. Sampling was conducted before (March 1997 - February 1998 and after the impoundment (March 1999 - February 2000, at four sampling sites. The stomach contents were analyzed by the volumetric method. The species could be organized in 10 trophic guilds: algivores, carcinophages, detritivores, herbivores, aquatic insectivores, terrestrial insectivores, invertivores, omnivores, piscivores, and planktivores; the first and last guilds were represented only in the post-impoundment period. Similarity patterns and feeding changes were summarized by a non-metric Multi-dimensional Scaling (nMDS analysis and statistically tested by a Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA. Most species showed feeding changes, except for the piscivores and detritivores. These changes were related to the temporal factor (impoundment phases, such as reduced intake of benthic organisms and allochthonous food, which were usually replaced by resources from the reservoir itself (algae, microcrustaceans, and fish, simplifying the food spectrum of the fish fauna. A different indicator of food resources (IndVal corroborated these changes in the feeding of the species. The proportions of the trophic guilds evaluated based on the catch per unit of effort (CPUE and tested by ANOSIM were significantly different before and after the impoundment. Herbivores and piscivores were the guilds that contributed (SIMPER to these differences, especially the high increase in biomass of the piscivore guild after the impoundment. Variations in the abundance of trophic guilds were more directly related to changes in the feeding habits of the fish fauna than to increases in the number and biomass of the species that constitute these guilds.

  19. Benthic Trophic Interactions in an Antarctic Shallow Water Ecosystem Affected by Recent Glacier Retreat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Pasotti

    Full Text Available The western Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing strong environmental changes as a consequence of ongoing regional warming. Glaciers in the area are retreating rapidly and increased sediment-laden meltwater runoff threatens the benthic biodiversity at shallow depths. We identified three sites with a distinct glacier-retreat related history and different levels of glacial influence in the inner part of Potter Cove (King George Island, South Shetland Islands, a fjord-like embayment impacted since the 1950s by a tidewater glacier retreat. We compared the soft sediment meio- and macrofauna isotopic niche widths (δ13C and δ15N stable isotope analysis at the three sites to investigate possible glacier retreat-related influences on benthic trophic interactions. The isotopic niches were locally shaped by the different degrees of glacier retreat-related disturbance within the Cove. Wider isotopic niche widths were found at the site that has become ice-free most recently, and narrower niches at the older ice-free sites. At an intermediate state of glacier retreat-related disturbance (e.g. via ice-growler scouring species with different strategies could settle. The site at the earliest stage of post-retreat development was characterized by an assemblage with lower trophic redundancy. Generally, the isotopic niche widths increased with increasing size spectra of organisms within the community, excepting the youngest assemblage, where the pioneer colonizer meiofauna size class displayed the highest isotopic niche width. Meiofauna at all sites generally occupied positions in the isotopic space that suggested a detrital-pool food source and/or the presence of predatory taxa. In general ice scour and glacial impact appeared to play a two-fold role within the Cove: i either stimulating trophic diversity by allowing continuous re-colonization of meiofaunal species or, ii over time driving the benthic assemblages into a more compact trophic structure with

  20. Benthic Trophic Interactions in an Antarctic Shallow Water Ecosystem Affected by Recent Glacier Retreat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasotti, Francesca; Saravia, Leonardo Ariel; De Troch, Marleen; Tarantelli, Maria Soledad; Sahade, Ricardo; Vanreusel, Ann

    2015-01-01

    The western Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing strong environmental changes as a consequence of ongoing regional warming. Glaciers in the area are retreating rapidly and increased sediment-laden meltwater runoff threatens the benthic biodiversity at shallow depths. We identified three sites with a distinct glacier-retreat related history and different levels of glacial influence in the inner part of Potter Cove (King George Island, South Shetland Islands), a fjord-like embayment impacted since the 1950s by a tidewater glacier retreat. We compared the soft sediment meio- and macrofauna isotopic niche widths (δ13C and δ15N stable isotope analysis) at the three sites to investigate possible glacier retreat-related influences on benthic trophic interactions. The isotopic niches were locally shaped by the different degrees of glacier retreat-related disturbance within the Cove. Wider isotopic niche widths were found at the site that has become ice-free most recently, and narrower niches at the older ice-free sites. At an intermediate state of glacier retreat-related disturbance (e.g. via ice-growler scouring) species with different strategies could settle. The site at the earliest stage of post-retreat development was characterized by an assemblage with lower trophic redundancy. Generally, the isotopic niche widths increased with increasing size spectra of organisms within the community, excepting the youngest assemblage, where the pioneer colonizer meiofauna size class displayed the highest isotopic niche width. Meiofauna at all sites generally occupied positions in the isotopic space that suggested a detrital-pool food source and/or the presence of predatory taxa. In general ice scour and glacial impact appeared to play a two-fold role within the Cove: i) either stimulating trophic diversity by allowing continuous re-colonization of meiofaunal species or, ii) over time driving the benthic assemblages into a more compact trophic structure with increased

  1. Salinization triggers a trophic cascade in experimental freshwater communities with varying food-chain length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintz, William D; Mattes, Brian M; Schuler, Matthew S; Jones, Devin K; Stoler, Aaron B; Lind, Lovisa; Relyea, Rick A

    2017-04-01

    The application of road deicing salts in northern regions worldwide is changing the chemical environment of freshwater ecosystems. Chloride levels in many lakes, streams, and wetlands exceed the chronic and acute thresholds established by the United States and Canada for the protection of freshwater biota. Few studies have identified the impacts of deicing salts in stream and wetland communities and none have examined impacts in lake communities. We tested how relevant concentrations of road salt (15, 100, 250, 500, and 1000 mg Cl - /L) interacted with experimental communities containing two or three trophic levels (i.e., no fish vs. predatory fish). We hypothesized that road salt and fish would have a negative synergistic effect on zooplankton, which would then induce a trophic cascade. We tested this hypothesis in outdoor mesocosms containing filamentous algae, periphyton, phytoplankton, zooplankton, several macroinvertebrate species, and fish. We found that the presence of fish and high salt had a negative synergistic effect on the zooplankton community, which in turn caused an increase in phytoplankton. Contributing to the magnitude of this trophic cascade was a direct positive effect of high salinity on phytoplankton abundance. Cascading effects were limited with respect to impacts on the benthic food web. Periphyton and snail grazers were unaffected by the salt-induced trophic cascade, but the biomass of filamentous algae decreased as a result of competition with phytoplankton for light or nutrients. We also found direct negative effects of high salinity on the biomass of filamentous algae and amphipods (Hyalella azteca) and the mortality of banded mystery snails (Viviparus georgianus) and fingernail clams (Sphaerium simile). Clam mortality was dependent on the presence of fish, suggesting a non-consumptive interactive effect with salt. Our results indicate that globally increasing concentrations of road salt can alter community structure via both direct

  2. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  3. Adaptive behaviour, tri-trophic food-web stability and damping of chaos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visser, Andre; Mariani, Patrizio; Pigolotti, Simone

    2012-01-01

    We examine the effect of adaptive foraging behaviour within a tri-trophic food web with intra-guild predation. The intra-guild prey is allowed to adjust its foraging effort so as to achieve an optimal per capita growth rate in the face of realized feeding, predation risk and foraging cost. Adapti...

  4. Trophic ecology of Mustelus schmitti (Springer, 1939) in a nursery area of northern Patagonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan Manuel; Cazorla, Andrea López

    2011-05-01

    Mustelus schmitti is an endangered endemic shark of the southwest Atlantic, and an important economical resource in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. The objective of this study was to describe the trophic ecology of M. schmitti in Anegada Bay, its feeding strategy and diet composition, along with the possible dietary shifts, due to season, sex, ontogeny and the different geographical features of the bay. Our results show that M. schmitti is a carnivorous opportunistic predator, feeding on a variety of benthic invertebrates. The diet presented seasonal and ontogenetic variations, while no differences in diet composition were observed between sexes or the different sampling sites. This species behave as a generalize feeder, with a wide trophic spectrum and a diverse diet.

  5. [Use of magnetic therapy combined with galvanization and tissue electrophoresis in the treatment of trophic ulcers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseenko, A V; Gusak, V V; Stoliar, V F; Iftodiĭ, A G; Tarabanchuk, V V; Shcherban, N G; Naumets, A A

    1993-01-01

    The results of treatment of 86 patients with the use of magnetotherapy in combination with galvanization and intratissue electrophoresis are presented. To create an electric field, the "Potok-1" apparatus with a density of current equal to 0.05-0.1 mA/cm2 was employed. Simultaneously, the "MAG-30" apparatus for low-frequency magnetotherapy with induction of 30 mT and area of exposure of 20 cm2 was applied to a trophic ulcer site. The use of magnetogalvanotherapy in the complex of treatment of trophic ulcers of the lower extremities is recommended.

  6. [THE CORRECTION OF TROPHIC DISORDERS IN CHILDREN OF CHRONIC GASTRODUODENITIS WITH METHOD LOW-FREQUENCY LIGHT-MAGNETOTHERAPY].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolosova, T A; Sadovnikova, I V; Belousova, T E

    2015-01-01

    The results of a survey of school children with chronic gastroduodenitis when applying at an early period the medical rehabilitation with method low-frequency light-magnetotherapy. During treatment of hospital was evaluated vegetative-trophic status with methods of cardiointervalography and thermovision functional tests. In normalizes clinical parameters was correction in dynamics of the vegetative status in children, it confirms the effectiveness of the therapy. It is proved, that the use of low-frequency light-magnetotherapy has a positive effect on the vegetative--trophic provision an organism and normalizes the vegetative dysfunction.

  7. Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both, Christiaan; van Asch, Margriet; Bijlsma, Rob G; van den Burg, Arnold B; Visser, Marcel E

    2009-01-01

    1. Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food. 2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator. 3. In our long-term study, we show that between 1988 and 2005, budburst advanced (not significantly) with 0.17 d yr(-1), while between 1985 and 2005 both caterpillars (0.75 d year(-1)) and the hatching date of the passerine species (range for four species: 0.36-0.50 d year(-1)) have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend. 4. The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators. 5. These results could equally well be explained by consumers' insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantifying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while

  8. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  9. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  10. Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilpern, Sebastian A; Weeks, Brian C; Naeem, Shahid

    2018-05-01

    Ecosystems vary widely in their responses to biodiversity change, with some losing function dramatically while others are highly resilient. However, generalizations about how species- and community-level properties determine these divergent ecosystem responses have been elusive because potential sources of variation (e.g., trophic structure, compensation, functional trait diversity) are rarely evaluated in conjunction. Ecosystem vulnerability, or the likely change in ecosystem function following biodiversity change, is influenced by two types of species traits: response traits that determine species' individual sensitivities to environmental change, and effect traits that determine a species' contribution to ecosystem function. Here we extend the response-effect trait framework to quantify ecosystem vulnerability and show how trophic structure, within-trait variance, and among-trait covariance affect ecosystem vulnerability by linking extinction order and functional compensation. Using in silico trait-based simulations we found that ecosystem vulnerability increased when response and effect traits positively covaried, but this increase was attenuated by decreasing trait variance. Contrary to expectations, in these communities, both functional diversity and trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, ecosystem functions were resilient when response and effect traits covaried negatively, and variance had a positive effect on resiliency. Our results suggest that although biodiversity loss is often associated with decreases in ecosystem functions, such effects are conditional on trophic structure, and the variation within and covariation among response and effect traits. Taken together, these three factors can predict when ecosystems are poised to lose or gain function with ongoing biodiversity change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  11. Bioaccumulation of 14C-Labeled Graphene in an Aquatic Food Chain through Direct Uptake or Trophic Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Shipeng; Xia, Tian; Yang, Yu; Lin, Sijie; Mao, Liang

    2018-01-16

    The growing applications of graphene materials warrant a careful evaluation of their environmental fate in aquatic food webs. Escherichia coli (Bacteria), Tetrahymena thermophila (protozoa), Daphnia magna (zooplankton), and Danio rerio (vertebrate) were used to build aquatic food chains to investigate the waterborne uptake and trophic transfer of 14 C-labeled graphene. Body burden factor (BBF) and trophic transfer factor (TTF) were analyzed for each organism and food chain to assess the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of graphene. The test organisms have high potential of accumulating graphene via direct uptake from culture medium with log-transformed BBF (log BBF) values of 3.66, 5.1, 3.9, and 1.62 for each organism, respectively. In the food chain from E. coli to T. thermophila, the calculated TTFs of 0.2 to 8.6 indicate the high trophic transfer potential in this aquatic food chain. However, the TTFs calculated for the food chain from T. thermophila to D. magna and from D. magna to D. rerio are much lower than 1, indicating that biomagnification was unlikely to occur in these food chains. Body burden measured for dietary uptake by T. thermophila, D. magna, and D. rerio are higher than that via waterborne exposure in a similar nominal concentration, respectively, indicating that trophic transfer is a nonnegligible route for the bioaccumulation of graphene in organisms.

  12. Combined Influence of Landscape Composition and Nutrient Inputs on Lake Trophic Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concentration of chlorophyll a is a measure of the biological productivity of a lake and is largely (but not exclusively) determined by available nutrients. As nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g. oligotrophic) to...

  13. Trophic transfer of trace metals from the polychaete worm Nereis diversicolor to the polychaete N. virens and the decapod crustacean Palaemonetes varians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainbow, P.S.; Poirier, L.; Smith, B.D.; Brix, K.V.; Luoma, S.N.

    2006-01-01

    Diet is an important exposure route for the uptake of trace metals by aquatic invertebrates, with trace metal trophic transfer depending on 2 stages - assimilation and subsequent accumulation by the predator. This study investigated the trophic transfer of trace metals from the sediment-dwelling polychaete worm Nereis diversicolor from metal-rich estuarine sediments in southwestern UK to 2 predators - another polychaete N. virens (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Fe) and the decapod crustacean Palaemonetes varians (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Fe, Ag, As, Mn). N. virens showed net accumulation of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd from the prey; accumulation increased with increasing prey concentration, but a coefficient of trophic transfer decreased with increasing prey concentration, probably because a higher proportion of accumulated metal in the prey is bound in less trophically available (insoluble) detoxified forms. The trace metal accumulation patterns of P. varians apparently restricted significant net accumulation of metals from the diet of N. diversicolor to just Cd. There was significant mortality of the decapods fed on the diets of metal-rich worms. Metal-rich invertebrates that have accumulated metals from the rich historical store in the sediments of particular SW England estuaries can potentially pass these metals along food chains, with accumulation and total food chain transfer depending on the metal assimilation efficiencies and accumulation patterns of the animal at each trophic level. This trophic transfer may be significant enough to have ecotoxicological effects. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

  14. Understanding trophic interactions of Orius spp. (Hemiptera: Anthocoridae) in lettuce crops by molecular methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Polo, Priscila; Alomar, Oscar; Castañé, Cristina; Aznar-Fernández, Thaïs; Lundgren, Jonathan G; Piñol, Josep; Agustí, Nuria

    2016-02-01

    The aphid Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) and the thrips Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) are common pests in Mediterranean lettuce crops, where Orius spp. are common generalist predators. Predation by Orius spp. was studied in a lettuce plot by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time PCR analyses using specific primers of both main pests. Also, high-throughput sequencing was used to have a wider approach of the diet of these predators in natural field conditions. Molecular analyses indicated a higher predation on N. ribisnigri in spring and on F. occidentalis in summer. Predation on alternative prey, like Collembola, was also found in both seasons. Real-time PCR was more sensitive than conventional PCR in showing the target trophic links, whereas high-throughput sequencing revealed predation on other natural enemies - intraguild predation (IGP), showing other trophic interactions of Orius majusculus within the studied ecosystem. This study gives important information about the trophic relationships present in Mediterranean lettuce crops in different periods of the year. The detected predation by Orius spp. on alternative prey, as well as on other natural enemies, should be further investigated to clarify whether it adds or detracts to the biological control of N. ribisnigri and F. occidentalis. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander

    2016-01-01

    A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental

  16. [Efficacy of compression knee-high socks ULCER X in treatment of venous-genesis trophic ulcers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanets, L I; Bogachev, V Iu; Lobanov, V N; Smirnova, E S

    2013-01-01

    The study was aimed at comparatively assessing the efficacy of treatment for venous trophic ulcers at stages II-III of the wound process using special compression knee-length socks of the ULCER X kit (Sigvaris AG, St. Gallen, Switzerland) and long-stretch bandages Lauma. Compression therapy was included into the programme of outpatient treatment of forty 31-to-74-year-old patients presenting with trophic ulcers (stage II-III of the wound process) with an average area of 5,36±1,1 cm2. The Study Group consisting of 20 patients used compression knitted fabrics in the form of knee-length socks ULCER X and the comparison group (n=20) used long-stretch bandages Lauma. The obtained findings (6 months) demonstrated that using compression therapy exerted a positive effect on the process of healing of venous trophic ulcers, also proving advantages of compression therapy with the knee-length socks ULCER X that create an adequate level of pressure on the crus and maintain it in long-term daily use, reliably accelerating the healing of venous trophic ulcers as compared with elastic long-stretch bandages. The use of long-stretch elastic bandages in treatment of venous trophic ulcers turned out to be not only ineffective but fraught with a possibility of the development of various complications. During 6 months of follow up the patients using the special knee-length socks ULCER X were found to have 80 % of ulcers healed (16 patients), mainly within the first 2 months, whereas using elastic bandages resulted in only 30 % of healing (6 patients) by the end of the study. Along with it, we documented a considerable decrease in the malleolar circumference in the study group patients (from 30,05±0,78 to 28,35±0,86 cm) and in the control group from 31,2±30,35 to 30,25±0,75 cm), accompanied and followed by more than a two-fold increase in quality of life of the patients along all the parameters in the study group and a 1.4-fold increase in the control group patients.

  17. Stable isotopes document the trophic structure of a deep-sea cephalopod assemblage including giant octopod and giant squid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherel, Y; Ridoux, V; Spitz, J; Richard, P

    2009-06-23

    Although deep-sea cephalopods are key marine organims, their feeding ecology remains essentially unknown. Here, we report for the first time the trophic structure of an assemblage of these animals (19 species) by measuring the isotopic signature of wings of their lower beaks, which accumulated in stomachs of stranded sperm whales. Overall, the species encompassed a narrow range in delta(13)C values (1.7 per thousand), indicating that they lived in closely related and overlapping habitats. delta(13)C values can be interpreted in terms of distribution with the more (13)C-depleted species (e.g. Stigmatoteuthis arcturi, Vampyroteuthis infernalis) having a more pelagic habitat than the more (13)C-enriched, bathyal species (e.g. Todarodes sagittatus and the giant squid Architeuthis dux). The cephalopods sampled had delta(15)N values ranging 4.6 per thousand, which is consistent with the species spanning approximately 1.5 trophic levels. Neither the giant octopod (Haliphron atlanticus) nor the giant squid reached the highest trophic position. Species delta(15)N was independent of body size, with large squids having both the highest (Taningia danae) and lowest (Lepidoteuthis grimaldii) delta(15)N values. Their trophic position indicates that some species share the top of the food web, together with other megacarnivores such as the sperm whale.

  18. Water trophicity of Utricularia microhabitats identlfied by means of SOFM as a tool in ecological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Kosiba

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The study objects were 48 microhabitats of five Utricularia species in Lower and Upper Silesia (POLAND. The aim of the paper was to focus on application of the Self-Organizing Feature Map in assessment of water trophicity in Utricularia microhabitats, and to describe how SOFM can be used for the study of ecological subjects. This method was compared with the hierarchical tree plot of cluster analysis to check whether this techniques give similar results. In effect, both topological map of SOFM and dendrogram of cluster analysis show differences between Utricularia species microhabitats in respect of water quality, from eutrophic for U. vulgaris to dystrophic for U. minor and U. intermedia. The used methods give similar results and constitute a validation of the SOFM method in this type of studies.

  19. Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

  20. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  1. Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruixian Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

  2. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  3. Trophic analysis of the fish community in the Ciénega Churince, Cuatro Ciénegas, Coahuila

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariana Hernández

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fish diets were analyzed to evaluate the dynamic trophs of the fish community in the Churince wetland system of the Cuatro Ciénegas, where the fauna consists of nine species: endemic, native and introduced. In nine sampling events (between February 2011 and May 2014 556 specimens of all nine species were collected. Stomach contents were analyzed and the Relative Importance Index (IRI was calculated. The feed coefficient (Q of the diets and the accumulated trophic diversity (Hk, as well as the amplitude of the trophic niche were evaluated. Feeding strategies in the fish community were found to be eurifagic. The main foods in general were insects, crustaceans, gastropods, plants and teleosts. According to the average linkage method, four functional trophic groups were defined, with no higher consumption species; nevertheless all were regulators, mainly invertebrates. Therefore, the chain reaction in food control was higher from top to bottom, meaning a downwards dietary control.

  4. Trophic Magnification of PCBs and Its Relationship to the Octanol−Water Partition Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    We investigated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation relative to octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW) and organism trophic position (TP) at the Lake Hartwell Superfund (South Carolina, USA). We measured PCBs (127 congeners) and stable isotopes (δ15...

  5. The dynamics the quantitative changes of mycoflora in two lakes differing in trophicity (Poland. I.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Korniłłowicz

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available It was demonstrated that the number of saprophytic fungi in the population of plankton in mesotrophic lake changing to eutrophic (Lake Piaseczno was mountained a similiar level (average values as in the eutrophic one (Lake Głębokie. The seasonal and annual changes in the number of fungi in the waters of the lake with lower trophicity were markedly stronger than those in the lake with higher trophicity. In the mesotrophic lake this was connected with the intensity of phytoplankton development. The greatest accumulation of fungi occured in the waters of littoral zone in both lakes and in the pelagial metha- and hypolimniun of the Lake Piaseczno.

  6. Trophic cascades from wolves to grizzly bears or changing abundance of bears and alternate foods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber-Meyer, Shannon M

    2015-05-01

    This is a Forum article commenting on: Ripple, W. J., Beschta, R. L., Fortin, J. K., & Robbins, C. T. (2014) Trophic cascades from wolves to grizzly bears in Yellowstone. Journal of Animal Ecology, 83, 223-233. Comparisons Ripple et al. (2014) used to demonstrate increased fruit availability and consumption by grizzly bears post-wolf reintroduction are flawed and tenuous at best. Importantly, a more parsimonious (than trophic cascades) hypothesis, not sufficiently considered by Ripple et al., exists and is better supported by available data I review. Published 2015. This article is a U. S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  8. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  9. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  10. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  11. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  12. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  13. Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.

    2011-01-01

    We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

  14. Eutrophication potential of lakes: an integrated analysis of trophic state, morphometry, land occupation, and land use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RF Silvino

    Full Text Available AbstractDespite being inside a protected area, Lake Sumidouro has been impacted by the anthropogenic occupation of the surrounding area since the 1970’s, compromising the ecological integrity of the lake and the sustainable use of natural resources. This study examined the current trophic classification of the lake and developed methods for improving it through an integrated analysis of morphometric and limnological parameters, land use and land occupation in the watershed, and eutrophication potential. Data for the limnological parameters, land use and land occupation, and morphometric characteristics of Lake Sumidouro were collected in the rainy and dry seasons of 2009 and 2010. Depending on the trophic classification system used, Lake Sumidouro is classified as oligotrophic to hypereutrophic. In our study, the highest concentration of nutrients occurred in the rainy season, indicating that high nutrient inputs played an important role during this period. Areas of anthropogenic occupation comprised approximately 62.9% of the total area of the watershed, with pasture and urban settlement as the main types of land use. The influent total phosphorus load was estimated to be 15,824.3 kg/year. To maintain mesotrophic conditions, this load must be reduced by 29.4%. By comparing the isolated use of trophic state indices, this study demonstrated that comparing the trophic state classification with morphometric analyses, land use and land occupation types in the watershed, and potential phosphorus load provided better information to guide management actions for restoration and conservation. Furthermore, this approach also allowed for evaluating the vulnerability of the environment to the eutrophication process.

  15. Interspecific comparison of radiocesium trophic transfer in two tropical fish species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouil, Simon; Teyssié, Jean-Louis; Fowler, Scott W; Metian, Marc; Warnau, Michel

    2018-09-01

    The trophic transfer of radiocesium ( 134 Cs) was investigated in two tropical fish, the silver moony Monodactylus argenteus and the spotted scat Scatophagus argus. Juveniles of both species were exposed to dietary 134 Cs using the pulse-chase feeding methodology. The food was brine shrimp (Artemia salina) previously exposed to the dissolved radiotracer. Depuration kinetics of 134 Cs were followed for 45 d. Results showed that Cs was similarly efficiently assimilated by both species (AE > 50%). The estimated trophic transfer factors in the two species ranked from 1 to 2, suggesting that 134 Cs could be biomagnified in both omnivorous species. In complement, dissections of 7 body compartments were carried out at three different times in order to highlight 134 Cs organotropism. 134 Cs organotropism was similar in both species: more than 50% of 134 Cs was quickly distributed in the muscles and skeleton (after 3 days of depuration), which is likely related to the analogous behavior between Cs and K, an essential element for muscle contractions and bone formation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Trophic interactions in the St. Lawrence Estuary (Canada): Must the blue whale compete for krill?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savenkoff, C.; Comtois, S.; Chabot, D.

    2013-09-01

    Inverse methodology was used to construct a mass-balance model of the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE) for the 2008-2010 time period. Our first objective was to make an overall description of community structure, trophic interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the vertebrate and invertebrate communities of the ecosystem. A second objective was to identify other important predators of krill, and to assess if these compete with blue whales, listed as endangered under the Canadian Species at Risk Act in 2005 (northwest Atlantic population). The Estuary and the Gulf of St. Lawrence are summer feeding grounds for blue whales and other marine mammals. Blue whales eat only euphausiids (krill) and require dense concentrations of prey to meet their energy requirements, which makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in prey availability. In the LSLE, many species from secondary producers (hyperiid amphipods, other macrozooplankton) to top predators (fish, birds, and marine mammals) consumed euphausiids. Consequently, krill predators were found at all consumer trophic levels. However, our results showed that only about 35% of the estimated euphausiid production was consumed by all predator species combined. Euphausiid did not seem to be a restricted resource in the LSLE ecosystem, at least during the study period. The blue whale did not appear to have to compete for krill in the LSLE.

  17. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  18. Testing the predictive power of nuclear mass models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza-Temis, J.; Morales, I.; Barea, J.; Frank, A.; Hirsch, J.G.; Vieyra, J.C. Lopez; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.

    2008-01-01

    A number of tests are introduced which probe the ability of nuclear mass models to extrapolate. Three models are analyzed in detail: the liquid drop model, the liquid drop model plus empirical shell corrections and the Duflo-Zuker mass formula. If predicted nuclei are close to the fitted ones, average errors in predicted and fitted masses are similar. However, the challenge of predicting nuclear masses in a region stabilized by shell effects (e.g., the lead region) is far more difficult. The Duflo-Zuker mass formula emerges as a powerful predictive tool

  19. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  20. Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng-Yu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

  1. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED MULTI-TROPHIC AQUACULTURE (IMTA IN THE ADRIATIC SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijel Kanski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Over recent years, scientific interest for investigating ecological, economical and social effects of Integrated Multi-trophic Aquaculture (IMTA has increased worldwide. Its development in the Mediterranean, including the Adriatic Sea, is still in the early stages. The main obstacle preventing IMTA to be commercially adopted is the lack of scientific information on choosing compatible species, knowing the carrying capacity of a production area and interactions between species feeding at different trophic levels, as well as its socio–economic impacts. Current experience in the area is based on smaller experimental studies of local importance but they generally give a good insight into potential of IMTA and its interactions with the environment. The aim of this paper was to overview current literature and experiences worldwide and to review the potential for adopting IMTA principles in the Adriatic Sea.

  2. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  3. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  4. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  5. Trophic flexibility of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus in invaded coastal systems of the Apulia region (SE Italy): A stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancinelli, Giorgio; Teresa Guerra, Maria; Alujević, Karla; Raho, Davide; Zotti, Maurizio; Vizzini, Salvatrice

    2017-11-01

    The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus is recognized as an Invasive Alien Species in the Mediterranean Sea. However, its trophic role and feeding flexibility in invaded benthic food webs have been addressed only recently. Here, field samplings were conducted in winter and summer in five coastal systems of the Apulia region (SE Italy), three located on the Ionian Sea (Mar Piccolo, Torre Colimena, and Spunderati) and two on the Adriatic Sea (Acquatina and Alimini Grande). Captured blue crabs were weighed and had their δ13C and δ15N isotopic signatures measured; their trophic level (TL) was estimated using the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis as isotopic baseline. C. sapidus abundances varied greatly across systems and seasons, and in Adriatic systems the species was not collected in winter. Trophic levels showed significant spatial and temporal variations, although with no general pattern. In winter, the Mar Piccolo population showed the highest TL values; the lowest estimates were in Torre Colimena and Spunderati, where crabs showed δ13C signatures significantly higher than mussels, suggesting the contribution of 13C-enriched plant material in the diet. In summer, with the exception of the Mar Piccolo, Ionian populations increased their trophic level; both Adriatic populations were characterized by the lowest TL estimates. The analysis performed at the individual scale further indicated body weight-related changes in trophic level. For the Torre Colimena population, in particular, a hump-shaped pattern was observed in both seasons. The present study highlighted a considerable spatial and temporal trophic flexibility of C. sapidus at the population scale, while at the individual scale size-related shifts in trophic level were observed. The ability of the blue crab to vary its energy sources in relation with season, local environmental conditions, and ontogenetic stage is emphasized, suggesting that it may represent a key determinant of its invasion success.

  6. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  7. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  8. Trophic habits of mesostigmatid mites associated with bark beetles in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Patricia Chaires-Grijalva; Edith G. Estrada-Venegas; Armando Equihua-Martinez; John C. Moser; Stacy R. Blomquist

    2016-01-01

    Samples of bark and logs damaged by bark beetles were collected from 16 states of Mexico from 2007 to 2012. Fifteen bark beetle species were found within the bark and log samples and were examined for phoretic mites and arthropod associates. Thirty-three species of mesostigmatid mites were discovered within the samples. They were identified in several trophic guilds...

  9. NOx PREDICTION FOR FBC BOILERS USING EMPIRICAL MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Štefanica

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Reliable prediction of NOx emissions can provide useful information for boiler design and fuel selection. Recently used kinetic prediction models for FBC boilers are overly complex and require large computing capacity. Even so, there are many uncertainties in the case of FBC boilers. An empirical modeling approach for NOx prediction has been used exclusively for PCC boilers. No reference is available for modifying this method for FBC conditions. This paper presents possible advantages of empirical modeling based prediction of NOx emissions for FBC boilers, together with a discussion of its limitations. Empirical models are reviewed, and are applied to operation data from FBC boilers used for combusting Czech lignite coal or coal-biomass mixtures. Modifications to the model are proposed in accordance with theoretical knowledge and prediction accuracy.

  10. The use of lipids and fatty acids to measure the trophic plasticity of the coral Stylophora subseriata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemann, J; Sawall, Y; Auel, H; Richter, C

    2013-03-01

    Following up on previous investigations on the stress resistance of corals, this study assessed the trophic plasticity of the coral Stylophora subseriata in the Spermonde Archipelago (Indonesia) along an eutrophication gradient. Trophic plasticity was assessed in terms of lipid content and fatty acid composition in the holobiont relative to its plankton (50-300 μm) food as well as the zooxanthellae density, lipid, FA and chlorophyll a content. A cross-transplantation experiment was carried out for 1.5 months in order to assess the trophic potential of corals. Corals, which live in the eutrophied nearshore area showed higher zooxanthellae and chlorophyll a values and higher amounts of the dinoflagellate biomarker FA 18:4n-3. Their lipid contents were maintained at similar to levels from specimens further away from the anthropogenic impact source going up to 14.9 ± 0.9 %. A similarity percentage analysis of the groups holobiont, zooxanthellae and plankton >55 μm found that differences between the FA composition of the holobiont and zooxanthellae symbionts were more distinct in the site closer to the shore, thus heterotrophic feeding became more important. Transplanted corals attained very similar zooxanthellae, chlorophyll a and lipid values at all sites as the specimens originating from those sites, which indicates a high potential for trophic plasticity in the case of a change in food sources, which makes this species competitive and resistant to eutrophication.

  11. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  12. Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R

    2011-07-01

    A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.

  13. Trophic structure of a coastal fish community determined with diet and stable isotope analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, A J; Collie, J S; Taylor, D L

    2016-09-01

    A combination of dietary guild analysis and nitrogen (δ(15) N) and carbon (δ(13) C) stable-isotope analysis was used to assess the trophic structure of the fish community in Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds, an area off southern New England identified for offshore wind energy development. In the autumn of 2009, 2010 and 2011, stomach and tissue samples were taken from 20 fish and invertebrate species for analysis of diet composition and δ(15) N and δ(13) C signatures. The food chain in Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds comprises approximately four trophic levels within which the fish community is divided into distinct dietary guilds, including planktivores, benthivores, crustacivores and piscivores. Within these guilds, inter-species isotopic and dietary overlap is high, suggesting that resource partitioning or competitive interactions play a major role in structuring the fish community. Carbon isotopes indicate that most fishes are supported by pelagic phytoplankton, although there is evidence that benthic production also plays a role, particularly for obligate benthivores such as skates Leucoraja spp. This type of analysis is useful for developing an ecosystem-based approach to management, as it identifies species that act as direct links to basal resources as well as species groups that share trophic roles. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  14. Cyanobacteria Community Dynamics and Trophic Status of Intensive Shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei Farming Pond in Situbondo East Java Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Aliviyanti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to analyze the dynamics community structure of Cyanobacteria and trophic status in ponds of intensive shrimp culture (Litopenaeus vannamei in Situbondo based on Trophic Diatom Index (TDI.  The ex post facto research was conducted in situ in the hamlet of Pond Mutiara Mas III Klatakan Situbondo East Java Indonesia.  Observation of Cyanobacteria and Diatoms community structure were done every week during four cycles of shrimp farming ponds.  Cycle of shrimp farming ponds is the times for enlargement process of the shrimps from seed to mature which ranges from 90-120 days.  The dependent variables were the density of Cyanobacteria and Diatoms community, as well as chemical parameters nitrite and orthophosphate.  Trophic status was determined from TDI be counted from data of diatom density.  All of the data were then classified using cluster and biplot analysis program PAST Ver. 3.11 to discribe the profile of ecosystem quality.  The research results showed that there were four taxa of Cyanobacteria during farming cycle which the highest density was found from the genus of Oscillatoria.  Based on the value of TDI, we found that the trophic status of water in shrimps pond during the production process was eutrophic until hyper-eutrophic.  The water quality was decreases along with the length of incubation time.

  15. Concentrations and trophic magnification of cyclic siloxanes in aquatic biota from the Western Basin of Lake Erie, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGoldrick, Daryl J.; Chan, Cecilia; Drouillard, Ken G.; Keir, Michael J.; Clark, Mandi G.; Backus, Sean M.

    2014-01-01

    We examine the concentrations and food web biomagnification of three cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5), and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) using aquatic biota collected from Lake Erie. Concentrations of cVMS in biota were within the range reported for other studies of cVMS in aquatic biota. Trophic magnification factors (TMF) were assessed in various food web configurations to investigate the effects of food web structure. TMF estimates were highly dependent on the inclusion/exclusion of the organisms occupying the highest and lowest trophic levels and were >1 for D4 and D5, indicating biomagnification, in only 1 of the 5 food web configurations investigated and were <1 in the remaining 4 food web configurations. TMF estimates for PCB180 were also dependant on food web configuration, but did not correspond with those obtained for cVMS materials. These differences may be attributed to environmental exposure and/or lipid partitioning differences between PCB180 and cVMS. -- Highlights: • We investigated trophic magnification of siloxanes in aquatic biota from Lake Erie. • Trophic magnification estimates were variable and sensitive to food web structure. • Lipid partitioning of siloxanes and PCBs differ and may contribute to variability. -- Biomagnification estimates for siloxanes in Lake Erie are sensitive to food web structure, contaminant exposure pathways, and lipid partitioning differences between PCBs and siloxanes

  16. Trophic ecology of Lepidoptera larvae associated with woody vegetation in a savanna ecosystem

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholtz, CH

    1982-06-01

    Full Text Available This study represents a quantitative survey of a Lepidoptera community and deals with the trophic ecology of the 27 species of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera on the eight dominant woody plants in the Burkea africana-Eragrostis pallens savanna...

  17. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  18. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  19. Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

    2015-01-01

    Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

  20. Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...

  1. Trophic interactions among grouper (Epinephelus marginatus), octopus (Octopus vulgaris) and red lobster (Palinurus elephas) in the Western Mediterranean

    OpenAIRE

    Quetglas, A. (Antoni); Reñones, O. (Olga); Goñi, R. (Raquel)

    2001-01-01

    In the present paper a first evaluation of the trophic interactions between grouper, octopus and spiny red lobster in the western Mediterranean is presented. The efficiency of octopus preying on lobsters is also estimated from trap catches. Grouper and octopus base their diet on the same major taxonomic groups and this is reflected in the values of diet overlap. Trophic diversity of grouper and octopus is also very similar. The estimation of the octopus efficiency preying on lobsters shows th...

  2. Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya

    2017-01-01

    Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Hydration status and diurnal trophic interactions shape microbial community function in desert biocrusts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Biological soil crusts (biocrusts are self-organised thin assemblies of microbes, lichens, and mosses that are ubiquitous in arid regions and serve as important ecological and biogeochemical hotspots. Biocrust ecological function is intricately shaped by strong gradients of water, light, oxygen, and dynamics in the abundance and spatial organisation of the microbial community within a few millimetres of the soil surface. We report a mechanistic model that links the biophysical and chemical processes that shape the functioning of biocrust representative microbial communities that interact trophically and respond dynamically to cycles of hydration, light, and temperature. The model captures key features of carbon and nitrogen cycling within biocrusts, such as microbial activity and distribution (during early stages of biocrust establishment under diurnal cycles and the associated dynamics of biogeochemical fluxes at different hydration conditions. The study offers new insights into the highly dynamic and localised processes performed by microbial communities within thin desert biocrusts.

  4. Hydration status and diurnal trophic interactions shape microbial community function in desert biocrusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minsu; Or, Dani

    2017-12-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are self-organised thin assemblies of microbes, lichens, and mosses that are ubiquitous in arid regions and serve as important ecological and biogeochemical hotspots. Biocrust ecological function is intricately shaped by strong gradients of water, light, oxygen, and dynamics in the abundance and spatial organisation of the microbial community within a few millimetres of the soil surface. We report a mechanistic model that links the biophysical and chemical processes that shape the functioning of biocrust representative microbial communities that interact trophically and respond dynamically to cycles of hydration, light, and temperature. The model captures key features of carbon and nitrogen cycling within biocrusts, such as microbial activity and distribution (during early stages of biocrust establishment) under diurnal cycles and the associated dynamics of biogeochemical fluxes at different hydration conditions. The study offers new insights into the highly dynamic and localised processes performed by microbial communities within thin desert biocrusts.

  5. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  6. A multivariate model for predicting segmental body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Simiao; Mioche, Laurence; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Morio, Béatrice

    2013-12-01

    The aims of the present study were to propose a multivariate model for predicting simultaneously body, trunk and appendicular fat and lean masses from easily measured variables and to compare its predictive capacity with that of the available univariate models that predict body fat percentage (BF%). The dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) dataset (52% men and 48% women) with White, Black and Hispanic ethnicities (1999-2004, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) was randomly divided into three sub-datasets: a training dataset (TRD), a test dataset (TED); a validation dataset (VAD), comprising 3835, 1917 and 1917 subjects. For each sex, several multivariate prediction models were fitted from the TRD using age, weight, height and possibly waist circumference. The most accurate model was selected from the TED and then applied to the VAD and a French DXA dataset (French DB) (526 men and 529 women) to assess the prediction accuracy in comparison with that of five published univariate models, for which adjusted formulas were re-estimated using the TRD. Waist circumference was found to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in men. For BF%, the standard error of prediction (SEP) values were 3.26 (3.75) % for men and 3.47 (3.95)% for women in the VAD (French DB), as good as those of the adjusted univariate models. Moreover, the SEP values for the prediction of body and appendicular lean masses ranged from 1.39 to 2.75 kg for both the sexes. The prediction accuracy was best for age < 65 years, BMI < 30 kg/m2 and the Hispanic ethnicity. The application of our multivariate model to large populations could be useful to address various public health issues.

  7. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joonhyuck Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.

  9. Computational Approaches to Predict Indices of Cyanobacteria Toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    As nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g., oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g., eutrophic). These broad trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem health and the potential for ecosystem serv...

  10. Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.

  11. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  12. Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

    2013-10-01

    Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre

    2005-07-01

    Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Highly resolved early Eocene food webs show development of modern trophic structure after the end-Cretaceous extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Jennifer A; Labandeira, Conrad C; Williams, Richard J

    2014-05-07

    Generalities of food web structure have been identified for extant ecosystems. However, the trophic organization of ancient ecosystems is unresolved, as prior studies of fossil webs have been limited by low-resolution, high-uncertainty data. We compiled highly resolved, well-documented feeding interaction data for 700 taxa from the 48 million-year-old latest early Eocene Messel Shale, which contains a species assemblage that developed after an interval of protracted environmental and biotal change during and following the end-Cretaceous extinction. We compared the network structure of Messel lake and forest food webs to extant webs using analyses that account for scale dependence of structure with diversity and complexity. The Messel lake web, with 94 taxa, displays unambiguous similarities in structure to extant webs. While the Messel forest web, with 630 taxa, displays differences compared to extant webs, they appear to result from high diversity and resolution of insect-plant interactions, rather than substantive differences in structure. The evidence presented here suggests that modern trophic organization developed along with the modern Messel biota during an 18 Myr interval of dramatic post-extinction change. Our study also has methodological implications, as the Messel forest web analysis highlights limitations of current food web data and models.

  16. Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  17. EVALUATION OF TROPHIC STATUS OF AGRAKHAN BAY (THE NORTH CASPIAN SEA AS A PART OF ECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF SPECIALLY PROTECTED AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Gadzhiev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Aim. Hydrochemical composition of waters of Agrakhan Bay (the North Caspian Sea, degree of pollution, structure and quantitative characteristics of phytoplankton, zooplankton and zoobenthos is given in the paper. Evaluation of a trophic status of the bay and seasonal trophodynamics are given as a result of study.Material and methods. The study is based on original materials from expeditions of 2012 (Autumn and 2013 (Spring and Summer in Agrakhan Bay. The complex materials are collected on stations with distance 3.5 km. Totally was made 16 marine stations, where samples of water, phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthos were taken.Results. Agrakhan Bay is eutrophic by level of dissolved oxygen and its BOD. However, the oxygen deficiency is not observed. concentration of oxygen is high almost in all seasons, that has a beneficial effect on hydrobionts. Seasonal dynamics indicates that Agrakhansky bay is oligotrophic within a year, but its trophic status increases to mesotrophic and even to hypertrophic in some periods. The northern part ща the bay is eutrophic. Difference in trophic levels of different parts of the bay is the result of significant differences in depth and area of water surface.Conclusions. Anthropogenic impact on Agrakhan Bay increases its trophic status. Seasonal trophic level of Agrakhan Gulf except natural processes depends on the "purity" of the Terek River sediments, which are the main source of biogenic elements. Typically, the absolute concentration of biogenic elements in Agrakhan Bay increases with the increase of eutrophication.

  18. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao Wu; Edward Lester; Michael Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering

    2006-05-15

    Several combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about coal burnout and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content and particle size to make a burnout prediction. This article presents a new model called the char burnout (ChB) model, which also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The input data to the model is based on information derived from two different image analysis techniques. One technique generates characterization data from real char samples, and the other predicts char types based on characterization data from image analysis of coal particles. The pyrolyzed chars in this study were created in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 200 ms, and 1% oxygen. Modeling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model as well as the actual burnout data from refiring the same chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen, and residence times of 200, 400, and 600 ms. A good agreement between ChB model and experimental data indicates that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models could well improve model predictions. 38 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  19. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  20. A grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model for energy consumption prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

  1. Ekologi Trofik Komunitas Ikan di Perairan Segara Menyan, Subang, Jawa Barat (Trophic Ecology of the Fish Community in Segara Menyan Coastal Lagoon, Subang, West Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Zahid

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Pengetahuan mengenai ekologi trofik merupakan dasar dalam memahami ekosistem secara keseluruhan yang dapat dijelaskan melalui pola hubungan trofik interspesies ataupun interserikat. Penelitian bertujuan untuk menjelaskan ekologi trofik meliputi indeks trofik dan jenis makanan dominan, serikat dan tingkat trofik, dan variasi spasial dan temporal komunitas ikan di estuari Segara Menyan. Pengambilan ikan contoh dilakukan setiap bulan pada zona berbeda. Ikan contoh dipisahkan berdasarkan waktu dan lokasi pengamatan, dianalisis isi saluran pencernaannya. Analisa data meliputi indeks vakuitas, jumlah total organisme makanan, jenis makanan dominan, luas relung makanan, dan tingkat trofik.  Pada pengamatan 106 spesies ikan, sebanyak 1-380 saluran pencernaan ikan diamati. Sebanyak lima dari 106 spesies memiliki nilai indeks vakuitas “0” dan jumlah makanan yang dikonsumsi bervariasi mulai dari empat hingga 27 jenis makanan. Secara umum, luas relung ikan adalah rendah berkisar 0,20-0,78 dan kebanyakan berada pada kisaran 0,20-0,48. Zooplankton merupakan jenis makanan paling dominan dikonsumsi oleh ikan. Komunitas ikan dikelompokkan dalam tujuh serikat trofik, yaitu detritivora, fitoplanktivora, zooplanktivora, zoobentivora, moluskivora, krustasivora, dan pisivora. Tingkat trofik komunitas ikan berkisar 2,05-4,73. Faktor perubahan ontogenetik, persediaan makanan, karakteristik habitat, dan ruaya beberapa spesies ikan memengaruhi variasi spasio-temporal jejaring makanan di Segara Menyan. Kata kunci: interaksi trofik, laguna, ikan, variasi spasio-temporal, serikat trofik Knowledge of trophic ecology is one way to understanding the whole ecosystem which explained by trophic relationship pattern (interspecies or interguild. The objective research was described of the trophic ecology, i.e. trophic index and dominant prey, trophic guild and trophic level, and spatio-temporal variation of fish community in Segara Menyan coastal lagoon. Fish were collected

  2. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  3. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...

  4. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  5. Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...

  6. Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cartella

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs with (i no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL of the machine is calculated.

  7. Long-term trends in the trophic structure of the orth Sea fish community : evidence from stable-isotope analysis, size-spectra and community metrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jennings, S.; Greenstreet, S.P.R.; Hill, L.; Piet, G.J.; Pinnegar, J.K.; Warr, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    Fishing has wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems. One of the most pervasive signs of intensive fishing is "fishing down the food web", with landings increasingly dominated by smaller species from lower trophic levels. Decreases in the trophic level of landings are assumed to reflect those in

  8. V.I. Vernadskiy study of biochemical cycles and role of biocenoses trophic structure in their stabilization under background conditions and at chemical pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezel, V.S.; Bel'skij, E.A.; Bel'skaya, E.A.; Zhujkova, T.V.; Mukhacheva, S.V.; Nesterkov, A.V.

    2008-01-01

    In the present report the participation of different trophic belonging organisms in biogeochemical cycles at the pollution of the environment by aerogenic emissions of metallurgical enterprises are discussed. Investigation in and around southern taiga of Middle Ural in liable to heavy metals contamination areas was made. Several areas with different level of soil contamination from background uncontaminated (at a distance 20-30 km from emission source) to buffer (4-7 km) and impact (1-2 km) were separated out. Mechanism of chemical elements accumulation by different components of terrestrial ecosystems that the aggregate of trophic levels present: depository environment (soil), producers (plants), consumers of several levels (phytophages, zoophages) was studied. Accumulation of chemical elements was considered in biomass of trophic levels both with content of chemical elements in the soil on a regional background level and by their intensive contamination. The findings enable to evaluate the quantity of chemical elements involved in biogenic cycles by different trophic belonging organisms

  9. Trophic structure in a pilot system for the integrated multi-trophic aquaculture off the east coast of Korean peninsula as determined by stable isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Hyun Je; Han, Eunah; Lee, Won Chan; Kwak, Jung Hyun; Kim, Hyung Chul; Park, Mi Seon; Kang, Chang-Keun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A pilot system for the integrated multi-trophic aquaculture was installed. • The black rockfish, sea cucumber, oyster, and macroalgae were co-cultured. • Co-cultured sea cucumber at the IMTA site assimilated aquaculture wastes. • Fish cage-waste contribution to food web in/around the IMTA system was minor. • The sea cucumber was identified as an extractive species of fish cage wastes. - Abstract: To assess the potential for nutritional exploitation of caged-fish-derived waste through the use of extractive co-cultured species in a pilot system for an integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), we compared their C and N stable isotope ratios with those of uncultured macroinvertebrates in and around the system. Black rockfish were co-cultured with sea cucumber, oyster, and two macroalgae as extractive species. Isotope signatures of the co-cultured sea cucumber at the IMTA site differed from those at the control site, indicating their assimilation of aquaculture wastes. In contrast, δ 13 C and δ 15 N of individual taxa of the cultured oyster and uncultured invertebrates were consistent between sites, suggesting a minor contribution of the aquaculture waste to benthic and pelagic food chains in and around the IMTA system. These results provide evidence of the suitability of using sea cucumber as an extractive species to reduce the impact of a monoculture system on the ambient environment

  10. Modeling and Control of CSTR using Model based Neural Network Predictive Control

    OpenAIRE

    Shrivastava, Piyush

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a predictive control strategy based on neural network model of the plant is applied to Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR). This system is a highly nonlinear process; therefore, a nonlinear predictive method, e.g., neural network predictive control, can be a better match to govern the system dynamics. In the paper, the NN model and the way in which it can be used to predict the behavior of the CSTR process over a certain prediction horizon are described, and some commen...

  11. Consensus models to predict endocrine disruption for all ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been tested for their ability to disrupt the endocrine system, in particular, their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor. EPA needs tools to prioritize thousands of chemicals, for instance in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) was intended to be a demonstration of the use of predictive computational models on HTS data including ToxCast and Tox21 assays to prioritize a large chemical universe of 32464 unique structures for one specific molecular target – the estrogen receptor. CERAPP combined multiple computational models for prediction of estrogen receptor activity, and used the predicted results to build a unique consensus model. Models were developed in collaboration between 17 groups in the U.S. and Europe and applied to predict the common set of chemicals. Structure-based techniques such as docking and several QSAR modeling approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1677 compounds provided by U.S. EPA, to build a total of 42 classification models and 8 regression models for binding, agonist and antagonist activity. All predictions were evaluated on ToxCast data and on an exte

  12. The Arctic Marine Pulses Model: Linking Contiguous Domains in the Pacific Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, S. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

    2016-02-01

    The Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem extends from the northern Bering Sea, across the Chukchi and into the East Siberian and Beaufort seas. Food webs in this domain are short, a simplicity that belies the biophysical complexity underlying trophic linkages from primary production to humans. Existing biophysical models, such as pelagic-benthic coupling and advective processes, provide frameworks for connecting certain aspects of the marine food web, but do not offer a full accounting of events that occur seasonally across the Pacific Arctic. In the course of the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) project, a holistic Arctic Marine Pulses (AMP) model was developed that depicts seasonal biophysical `pulses' across a latitudinal gradient, and linking four previously-described contiguous domains, including the: (i) Pacific-Arctic domain = the focal region; (ii) seasonal ice zone domain; (iii) Pacific marginal domain; and (iv) riverine coastal domain. The AMP model provides a spatial-temporal framework to guide research on dynamic ecosystem processes during this period of rapid biophysical changes in the Pacific Arctic. Some of the processes included in the model, such as pelagic-benthic coupling in the Northern Bering and Chukchi seas, and advection and upwelling along the Beaufort shelf, are already the focus of sampling via the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and other research programs. Other aspects such as biological processes associated with the seasonal ice zone and trophic responses to riverine outflow have received less attention. The AMP model could be enhanced by the application of visualization tools to provide a means to watch a season unfold in space and time. The capability to track sea ice dynamics and water masses and to move nutrients, prey and upper-trophic predators in space and time would provide a strong foundation for the development of predictive human-inclusive ecosystem models for the Pacific Arctic.

  13. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  14. Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “ any fall ” and “ recurrent falls .” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.

  15. Preclinical models used for immunogenicity prediction of therapeutic proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinks, Vera; Weinbuch, Daniel; Baker, Matthew; Dean, Yann; Stas, Philippe; Kostense, Stefan; Rup, Bonita; Jiskoot, Wim

    2013-07-01

    All therapeutic proteins are potentially immunogenic. Antibodies formed against these drugs can decrease efficacy, leading to drastically increased therapeutic costs and in rare cases to serious and sometimes life threatening side-effects. Many efforts are therefore undertaken to develop therapeutic proteins with minimal immunogenicity. For this, immunogenicity prediction of candidate drugs during early drug development is essential. Several in silico, in vitro and in vivo models are used to predict immunogenicity of drug leads, to modify potentially immunogenic properties and to continue development of drug candidates with expected low immunogenicity. Despite the extensive use of these predictive models, their actual predictive value varies. Important reasons for this uncertainty are the limited/insufficient knowledge on the immune mechanisms underlying immunogenicity of therapeutic proteins, the fact that different predictive models explore different components of the immune system and the lack of an integrated clinical validation. In this review, we discuss the predictive models in use, summarize aspects of immunogenicity that these models predict and explore the merits and the limitations of each of the models.

  16. A Grey NGM(1,1, k) Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span. PMID:25054174

  17. Trophic state of water in the watershed of Lake Mirim, RS, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Pereira-Ramirez

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze the spacetime variations in the trophic characteristics of the principal water bodies feeding Lake Mirim, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, by determination of the Trophic State Index proposed by Toledo Jr. (IETT and Lamparelli (IETL, to assess water quality data between 1996 and 1998. It was verified that the lotic environments presented greater eutrophication conditions when evaluated by the Toledo Jr. methodology, in which the IETT varied from Eutrophic to Hypereutrophic. However, the evaluated environments showed variations from Mesotrophic to Hypereutrophic for the IETL when evaluated according to the Lamparelli methodology. From the classification proposed by Toledo Jr., lentic water bodies were considered Mesotrophic (IETT > 44 and Hypereutrophic (IETT > 74, while the Lamparelli method classified them as Eutrophic (IETL > 59 and Hypereutrophic (IETL > 67. Concentrations of phosphorus encountered in all water samples were greater than the limits established by the CONAMA Resolution n. 357, 2005, for class 2 water bodies, probably due to the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial wastes into the waters.

  18. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  19. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  20. Trophic Structure Over the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge: The Bathypelagic Zone Really Matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present preliminary results and ongoing efforts to characterize the trophic structure and energy flow of the pelagic ecosystems of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), from Iceland to the Azores. This study is one component of the international CoML field project MAR-ECO (ww...

  1. Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others

  2. The functional biology and trophic role of krill (Thysanoessa raschii) in a Greenlandic fjord

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agersted, Mette Dalgaard; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Munk, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Despite being a key zooplankton group, knowledge on krill biology from the Arctic is inadequate. The present study examine the functional biology and evaluate the trophic role of krill in the GodthAyenbsfjord (64 degrees N, 51 degrees W) SW Greenland, through a combination of fieldwork...... and laboratory experiments. Krill biomass was highest in the middle fjord and inner fjord, whereas no krill was found offshore. The dominating species Thysanoessa raschii revealed a type III functional response when fed with the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii. At food saturation, T. raschii exhibited a daily...... ration of 1% body C d(-1). Furthermore, T. raschii was capable of exploiting plankton cells from 5 to 400 mu m, covering several trophic levels of the pelagic food web. The calculated grazing impact by T. raschii on the fjord plankton community was negligible. However, the schooling and migratory...

  3. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality and Trophic Status in Sembrong Reservoir, Johor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intan Najla Syed Hashim, Syarifah; Hidayah Abu Talib, Siti; Salleh Abustan, Muhammad

    2018-03-01

    A study of spatial and temporal variations on water quality and trophic status was conducted to determine the temporal (average reading by month) and spatial variations of water quality in Sembrong reservoir and to evaluate the trophic status of the reservoir. Water samples were collected once a month from November 2016 to June 2017 in seventeen (17) sampling stations at Sembrong Reservoir. Results obtained on the concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature, pH and secchi depth had no significant differences compared to Total Phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll-a. The water level has significantly decreased the value of the water temperature, pH and TP. The water quality of Sembrong reservoir is classified in Class II which is suitable for recreational uses and required conventional treatment while TSI indicates that sembrong reservoir was in lower boundary of classical eutrophic (TSI > 50).

  4. Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gisen, J.I.A.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Nijzink, R.C.

    2015-01-01

    For one-dimensional salt intrusion models to be predictive, we need predictive equations to link model parameters to observable hydraulic and geometric variables. The one-dimensional model of Savenije (1993b) made use of predictive equations for the Van der Burgh coefficient $K$ and the dispersion

  5. Preprocedural Prediction Model for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Wen-Jun; Yi, Yi-Hu; Guan, Xiao-Feng; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Wang, Jiang-Lin; Li, Dai-Yang; Zuo, Xiao-Cong

    2017-02-03

    Several models have been developed for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN); however, they only contain patients receiving intra-arterial contrast media for coronary angiographic procedures, which represent a small proportion of all contrast procedures. In addition, most of them evaluate radiological interventional procedure-related variables. So it is necessary for us to develop a model for prediction of CIN before radiological procedures among patients administered contrast media. A total of 8800 patients undergoing contrast administration were randomly assigned in a 4:1 ratio to development and validation data sets. CIN was defined as an increase of 25% and/or 0.5 mg/dL in serum creatinine within 72 hours above the baseline value. Preprocedural clinical variables were used to develop the prediction model from the training data set by the machine learning method of random forest, and 5-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction accuracies of the model. Finally we tested this model in the validation data set. The incidence of CIN was 13.38%. We built a prediction model with 13 preprocedural variables selected from 83 variables. The model obtained an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.907 and gave prediction accuracy of 80.8%, sensitivity of 82.7%, specificity of 78.8%, and Matthews correlation coefficient of 61.5%. For the first time, 3 new factors are included in the model: the decreased sodium concentration, the INR value, and the preprocedural glucose level. The newly established model shows excellent predictive ability of CIN development and thereby provides preventative measures for CIN. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  6. Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A

    2016-05-09

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.

  7. Comparison of contaminants from different trophic levels and ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, R.; Riget, F.; Cleemann, M.

    2000-01-01

    The present paper provides an overview of the priority contaminants and media from the Greenland part of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program. Levels and accumulation patterns of heavy metals, POPs and a radionuclide (Cs-137) are compared from the terrestrial, freshwater and marine...... ecosystems. Of the nine compounds presented, seven (Cd, Hg, Se, Sigma PCB, Sigma DDT, Sigma HCH, HCB) increased in concentration towards higher trophic levels. For these contaminants the concentrations in soil and aquatic sediment were in the same order of magnitude, whereas the concentrations in marine...

  8. New Methods of Treatment for Trophic Lesions of the Lower Extremities in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Bolgarska

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Complications in the form of trophic ulcers of the lower extremities are one of the serious consequences of diabetes mellitus (DM, as they often lead to severe health and social problems, up to high amputations. The aim of the study was the development and clinical testing of diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm for the comprehensive treatment of trophic ulcers of the lower extremities in patients with DM. Materials and methods. Here are presented the results of treatment of 63 patients (42 women and 21 men with neuropathic type of trophic lesions of the lower limbs or postoperative defects at the stage of granulation. Of them, 32 patients (study group received local intradermal injections of hyaluronic acid preparations and sodium succinate (Lacerta into the extracellular matrix. Patients of the comparison group were treated with hydrocolloid materials (hydrocoll, granuflex. The level of glycated hemoglobin, the degree of circulatory disorders (using ankle brachial index, before and after the test with a load and neuropathic disorders (on a scale for the evaluation of neurologic dysfunctions — NDS were assessed in patients. Results. The results of treatment were assessed by the rate of defect healing during 2 or more months. In the study group, 24 patients showed complete healing of the defect (75 %, while in the control group the healing was observed in 16 patients (51.6 %. During the year, relapses occurred in 22.2 % of cases in the study group, and in 46.9 % — in the control one (p < 0.05. Conclusion. The developed method of treatment using Lacerta allowed to increase the effectiveness of therapy, to speed recovery, to decrease a number of complications in patients with DM and trophic ulcers of the lower extremities.

  9. Trophic scaling and occupancy analysis reveals a lion population limited by top-down anthropogenic pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everatt, Kristoffer T; Andresen, Leah; Somers, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    The African lion (Panthera Leo) has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent's remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/non-detection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km² vs. 3.05 lions/100 km²). The proportion of area occupied by lions was Ψ = 0.439 (SE = 0.121), or approximately 44% of a 2,400 km2 sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first empirical

  10. Trophic scaling and occupancy analysis reveals a lion population limited by top-down anthropogenic pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristoffer T Everatt

    Full Text Available The African lion (Panthera Leo has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent's remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/non-detection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km² vs. 3.05 lions/100 km². The proportion of area occupied by lions was Ψ = 0.439 (SE = 0.121, or approximately 44% of a 2,400 km2 sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first

  11. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  12. Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  13. Trophic gradients of two minnow species with similar eco-type and their relations to water chemistry and multimetric biological integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seoyun Choi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to determine tolerance ranges and trophic gradients of two fish populations of Zacco koreanus (Zk and Zacco platypus (Zp in relation to chemical water quality and ecological stream health, based on the biological integrity metric (BIM model. Seventy-six streams and rivers were sampled for the analysis. The population of Zk had a narrow chemical tolerance with a low phosphorus limit (< 300 μg/L as total phosphorus, whereas the Zp population occurred within a high limit (up to 1,100 μg/L. Similar patterns in the two populations were shown in nitrogen, biological oxygen demand, suspended solids, and other parameters. The population of Zp had significantly (t=5.25, p<0.001 greater chemical tolerance than the population of Zk. The population of Zk had a positive functional relation (R2=0.43, p<0.001 with insectivore species, but the Zp population had negative linear function (R2=0.50, p<0.001, indicating a trophic difference in the food chain of two populations. Application of the biological integrity model indicated that the values of BIM, as an index of ecological health, were significantly greater (t=13.67, p<0.001 in the population of Zk than the population of Zp.

  14. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  15. Forward modeling of fluctuating dietary 13C signals to validate 13C turnover models of milk and milk components from a diet-switch experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Braun

    Full Text Available Isotopic variation of food stuffs propagates through trophic systems. But, this variation is dampened in each trophic step, due to buffering effects of metabolic and storage pools. Thus, understanding of isotopic variation in trophic systems requires knowledge of isotopic turnover. In animals, turnover is usually quantified in diet-switch experiments in controlled conditions. Such experiments usually involve changes in diet chemical composition, which may affect turnover. Furthermore, it is uncertain if diet-switch based turnover models are applicable under conditions with randomly fluctuating dietary input signals. Here, we investigate if turnover information derived from diet-switch experiments with dairy cows can predict the isotopic composition of metabolic products (milk, milk components and feces under natural fluctuations of dietary isotope and chemical composition. First, a diet-switch from a C3-grass/maize diet to a pure C3-grass diet was used to quantify carbon turnover in whole milk, lactose, casein, milk fat and feces. Data were analyzed with a compartmental mixed effects model, which allowed for multiple pools and intra-population variability, and included a delay between feed ingestion and first tracer appearance in outputs. The delay for milk components and whole milk was ~12 h, and that of feces ~20 h. The half-life (t½ for carbon in the feces was 9 h, while lactose, casein and milk fat had a t½ of 10, 18 and 19 h. The (13C kinetics of whole milk revealed two pools, a fast pool with a t½ of 10 h (likely representing lactose, and a slower pool with a t½ of 21 h (likely including casein and milk fat. The diet-switch based turnover information provided a precise prediction (RMSE ~0.2 ‰ of the natural (13C fluctuations in outputs during a 30 days-long period when cows ingested a pure C3 grass with naturally fluctuating isotope composition.

  16. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  17. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  18. Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

    2016-11-01

    In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

  19. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  20. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore