Risk evaluations of aging phenomena: the linear aging reliability model and its extensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1987-01-01

A model for component failure rates due to aging mechanisms has been developed from basic phenomenological considerations. In the treatment, the occurrences of deterioration are modeled as following a Poisson process. The severity of damage is allowed to have any distribution, however the damage is assumed to accumulate independently. Finally, the failure rate is modeled as being proportional to the accumulated damage. Using this treatment, the linear aging failure rate model is obtained. The applicability of the linear aging model to various mechanisms is discussed. The model can be extended to cover nonlinear and dependent aging phenomena. The implementability of the linear aging model is demonstrated by applying it to the aging data collected in NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program. The applications show that aging as observed in collected data have significant effects on the component failure probability and component reliability when aging is not effectively detected and controlled by testing and maintenance

Risk evaluations of aging phenomena: The linear aging reliability model and its extensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1986-01-01

A model for component failure rates due to aging mechanisms has been developed from basic phenomenological considerations. In the treatment, the occurrences of deterioration are modeled as following a Poisson process. The severity of damage is allowed to have any distribution, however the damage is assumed to accumulate independently. Finally, the failure rate is modeled as being proportional to the accumulated damage. Using this treatment, the linear aging failure rate model is obtained. The applicability of the linear aging model to various mechanisms is discussed. The model can be extended to cover nonlinear and dependent aging phenomena. The implementability of the linear aging model is demonstrated by applying it of the aging data collected in NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program. The applications show that aging as observed in collected data have significant effects on the component failure probability and component reliability when aging is not effectively detected and controlled by testing and maintenance

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

Risk evaluations of aging phenomena: The linear aging reliability model and its extensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Wolford, A.J.

1988-01-01

A model for component failure rates due to aging mechanisms is developed from basic phenomenological considerations. In the treatment, the occurrences of deterioration are modeled as following a Poisson process. The severity of damage is allowed to have any distribution, however the damage is assumed to accumulate independently. Finally, the failure rate is modeled as being proportional to the accumulated damage. Using this treatment, the linear aging failure rate model is obtained. The applicability of the linear aging model to various mechanisms is discussed. Extensions of the model to cover nonlinear and dependent aging phenomena are also described. The implementability of the linear aging model is demonstrated by applying it to the aging data collected in the U.S. NRC Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program. (orig./HP)

The Fruit Fly Drosophila melanogaster as a Model for Aging Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Annely; Vilcinskas, Andreas

2013-01-01

: Average human life expectancy is increasing and so is the impact on society of aging and age-related diseases. Here we highlight recent advances in the diverse and multidisciplinary field of aging research, focusing on the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, an excellent model system in which to dissect the genetic and molecular basis of the aging processes. The conservation of human disease genes in D. melanogaster allows the functional analysis of orthologues implicated in human aging and age-related diseases. D. melanogaster models have been developed for a variety of age-related processes and disorders, including stem cell decline, Alzheimer's disease, and cardiovascular deterioration. Understanding the detailed molecular events involved in normal aging and age-related diseases could facilitate the development of strategies and treatments that reduce their impact, thus improving human health and increasing longevity.

Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manzano-Ramírez A.

2011-10-01

Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

Epidemic model with vaccinated age that exhibits backward bifurcation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Junyuan; Zhang Fengqin; Li Xuezhi

2009-01-01

Vaccination of susceptibilities is included in a transmission model for a disease that confers immunity. In this paper, interplay of vaccination strategy together with vaccine efficacy and the vaccinated age is studied. In particular, vaccine efficacy can lead to a backward bifurcation. At the same time, we also discuss an abstract formulation of the problem, and establish the well-posedness of the model.

Ageing model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Sanchez, A.; Serradell, V.

1998-01-01

Nowadays, there is some doubt about building new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Instead, there is a growing interest in analyzing the possibility to extend current NPP operation where life management programs play an important role. The evolution of the NPP safety depends on the evolution of the reliability of its safety components as a function of their age along the NPP operational life. In this paper, a new age-dependent reliability model is presented, which includes parameters related to surveillance and maintenance effectiveness and working conditions, both environmental and operational, of the equipment. This model may be used to support NPP life management and life extension programs by improving or optimizing surveillance and maintenance tasks using risk and cost models based on such an age-dependent reliability model. The results of the sensitivity study in the application show that the selection of the most appropriate maintenance strategy would directly depend on the previous parameters and very important differences are expected to appear under certain circumstance. (Author) 7 refs

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

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Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Prospective validation of criteria, including age, for safe, nonsurgical management of the ruptured spleen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, J.S. Jr.; Wengrovitz, M.A.; DeLong, B.S. (Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey (United States))

1992-09-01

One hundred twelve cases of blunt splenic rupture were prospectively entered (October 1987-October 1991) into surgical or nonsurgical management groups using these criteria for the nonsurgical group: hemodynamic stability-age less than 55 years-CT scan appearance of grade I, II, or III injury-absence of concomitant injuries precluding abdominal assessment+absence of other documented abdominal injuries. All ages were included and AAST injury scaling was used. Patients were grouped from the trauma room. The surgical treatment group included 66 patients (49 splenectomies, 17 splenorraphies). These patients were generally older and more severely injured, required more transfused blood, and a longer ICU stay. The nonsurgical group included 46 patients with 33 older than 14 years. There were 3 patients over the age of 55 years inappropriately included in this group, and nonsurgical therapy failed in all three. Statistical analysis (chi 2) showed that more splenic injuries were observed and more spleens were saved with these criteria applied prospectively compared with a previous retrospective series in the same institution. The series had a success rate of 93%, and validates the criteria used for safe, nonsurgical management of the ruptured spleen and adds a new criterion: a maximum age of 55 years.

Prospective validation of criteria, including age, for safe, nonsurgical management of the ruptured spleen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, J.S. Jr.; Wengrovitz, M.A.; DeLong, B.S.

1992-01-01

One hundred twelve cases of blunt splenic rupture were prospectively entered (October 1987-October 1991) into surgical or nonsurgical management groups using these criteria for the nonsurgical group: hemodynamic stability-age less than 55 years-CT scan appearance of grade I, II, or III injury-absence of concomitant injuries precluding abdominal assessment+absence of other documented abdominal injuries. All ages were included and AAST injury scaling was used. Patients were grouped from the trauma room. The surgical treatment group included 66 patients (49 splenectomies, 17 splenorraphies). These patients were generally older and more severely injured, required more transfused blood, and a longer ICU stay. The nonsurgical group included 46 patients with 33 older than 14 years. There were 3 patients over the age of 55 years inappropriately included in this group, and nonsurgical therapy failed in all three. Statistical analysis (chi 2) showed that more splenic injuries were observed and more spleens were saved with these criteria applied prospectively compared with a previous retrospective series in the same institution. The series had a success rate of 93%, and validates the criteria used for safe, nonsurgical management of the ruptured spleen and adds a new criterion: a maximum age of 55 years

A four-component model of age-related memory change.

Science.gov (United States)

Healey, M Karl; Kahana, Michael J

2016-01-01

We develop a novel, computationally explicit, theory of age-related memory change within the framework of the context maintenance and retrieval (CMR2) model of memory search. We introduce a set of benchmark findings from the free recall and recognition tasks that include aspects of memory performance that show both age-related stability and decline. We test aging theories by lesioning the corresponding mechanisms in a model fit to younger adult free recall data. When effects are considered in isolation, many theories provide an adequate account, but when all effects are considered simultaneously, the existing theories fail. We develop a novel theory by fitting the full model (i.e., allowing all parameters to vary) to individual participants and comparing the distributions of parameter values for older and younger adults. This theory implicates 4 components: (a) the ability to sustain attention across an encoding episode, (b) the ability to retrieve contextual representations for use as retrieval cues, (c) the ability to monitor retrievals and reject intrusions, and (d) the level of noise in retrieval competitions. We extend CMR2 to simulate a recognition memory task using the same mechanisms the free recall model uses to reject intrusions. Without fitting any additional parameters, the 4-component theory that accounts for age differences in free recall predicts the magnitude of age differences in recognition memory accuracy. Confirming a prediction of the model, free recall intrusion rates correlate positively with recognition false alarm rates. Thus, we provide a 4-component theory of a complex pattern of age differences across 2 key laboratory tasks. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MOS modeling hierarchy including radiation effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, D.R.; Turfler, R.M.

1975-01-01

A hierarchy of modeling procedures has been developed for MOS transistors, circuit blocks, and integrated circuits which include the effects of total dose radiation and photocurrent response. The models were developed for use with the SCEPTRE circuit analysis program, but the techniques are suitable for other modern computer aided analysis programs. The modeling hierarchy permits the designer or analyst to select the level of modeling complexity consistent with circuit size, parametric information, and accuracy requirements. Improvements have been made in the implementation of important second order effects in the transistor MOS model, in the definition of MOS building block models, and in the development of composite terminal models for MOS integrated circuits

Mathematical Model of Age Aggression

OpenAIRE

Golovinski, P. A.

2013-01-01

We formulate a mathematical model of competition for resources between representatives of different age groups. A nonlinear kinetic integral-differential equation of the age aggression describes the process of redistribution of resources. It is shown that the equation of the age aggression has a stationary solution, in the absence of age-dependency in the interaction of different age groups. A numerical simulation of the evolution of resources for different initial distributions has done. It ...

Drosophila melanogaster as a model system for the evaluation of anti-aging compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Jafari, Mahtab

2010-01-01

Understanding the causes of aging is a complex problem due to the multiple factors that influence aging, which include genetics, environment, metabolism and reproduction, among others. These multiple factors create logistical difficulties in the evaluation of anti-aging agents. There is a need for good model systems to evaluate potential anti-aging compounds. The model systems used should represent the complexities of aging in humans, so that the findings may be extrapolated to human studies, but they should also present an opportunity to minimize the variables so that the experimental results can be accurately interpreted. In addition to positively affecting lifespan, the impact of the compound on the physiologic confounders of aging, including fecundity and the health span--the period of life where an organism is generally healthy and free from serious or chronic illness--of the model organism needs to be evaluated. Fecundity is considered a major confounder of aging in fruit flies. It is well established that female flies that are exposed to toxic substances typically reduce their dietary intake and their reproductive output and display an artifactual lifespan extension. As a result, drugs that achieve longevity benefits by reducing fecundity as a result of diminished food intake are probably not useful candidates for eventual treatment of aging in humans and should be eliminated during the screening process. Drosophila melanogaster provides a suitable model system for the screening of anti-aging compounds as D. melanogaster and humans have many conserved physiological and biological pathways. In this paper, I propose an algorithm to screen anti-aging compounds using Drosophila melanogaster as a model system.

Evolutive masing model, cyclic plasticity, ageing and memory effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sidoroff, F.

1987-01-01

Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. Such a model must include two basic features: Dissipative behaviour on each cycle (hysteresis loop); evolution of this behaviour during the material's life (cyclic hardening or softening, aging,...). However, if both aspects are present in most existing models, the balance between them may be quite different. Many metallurgical investigations have been performed about the microstructure and its evolution during cyclic loading, and it is desirable to introduce these informations in phenomenological models. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed to combine: the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, aging). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour

Age-dependent Fourier model of the shape of the isolated ex vivo human crystalline lens.

Science.gov (United States)

Urs, Raksha; Ho, Arthur; Manns, Fabrice; Parel, Jean-Marie

2010-06-01

To develop an age-dependent mathematical model of the zero-order shape of the isolated ex vivo human crystalline lens, using one mathematical function, that can be subsequently used to facilitate the development of other models for specific purposes such as optical modeling and analytical and numerical modeling of the lens. Profiles of whole isolated human lenses (n=30) aged 20-69, were measured from shadow-photogrammetric images. The profiles were fit to a 10th-order Fourier series consisting of cosine functions in polar-co-ordinate system that included terms for tilt and decentration. The profiles were corrected using these terms and processed in two ways. In the first, each lens was fit to a 10th-order Fourier series to obtain thickness and diameter, while in the second, all lenses were simultaneously fit to a Fourier series equation that explicitly include linear terms for age to develop an age-dependent mathematical model for the whole lens shape. Thickness and diameter obtained from Fourier series fits exhibited high correlation with manual measurements made from shadow-photogrammetric images. The root-mean-squared-error of the age-dependent fit was 205 microm. The age-dependent equations provide a reliable lens model for ages 20-60 years. The contour of the whole human crystalline lens can be modeled with a Fourier series. Shape obtained from the age-dependent model described in this paper can be used to facilitate the development of other models for specific purposes such as optical modeling and analytical and numerical modeling of the lens. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a dimensional model for successful cognitive and emotional aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Vahia, Ipsit V; Thompson, Wesley K; Depp, Colin A; Allison, Matthew; Jeste, Dilip V

2012-04-01

There is currently a lack of consensus on the definition of successful aging (SA) and existing implementations have omitted constructs associated with SA. We used empirical methods to develop a dimensional model of SA that incorporates a wider range of associated variables, and we examined the relationship among these components using factor analysis and Bayesian Belief Nets. We administered a successful aging questionnaire comprising several standardized measures related to SA to a sample of 1948 older women enrolled in the San Diego site of the Women's Health Initiative study. The SA-related variables we included in the model were self-rated successful aging, depression severity, physical and emotional functioning, optimism, resilience, attitude towards own aging, self-efficacy, and cognitive ability. After adjusting for age, education and income, we fitted an exploratory factor analysis model to the SA-related variables and then, in order to address relationships among these factors, we computed a Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) using rotated factor scores. The SA-related variables loaded onto five factors. Based on the loading, we labeled the factors as follows: self-rated successful aging, cognition, psychosocial protective factors, physical functioning, and emotional functioning. In the BBN, self-rated successful aging emerged as the primary downstream factor and exhibited significant partial correlations with psychosocial protective factors, physical/general status and mental/emotional status but not with cognitive ability. Our study represents a step forward in developing a dimensional model of SA. Our findings also point to a potential role for psychiatry in improving successful aging by managing depressive symptoms and developing psychosocial interventions to improve self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism.

Exactly solvable models of growing interfaces and lattice gases: the Arcetri models, ageing and logarithmic sub-ageing

Science.gov (United States)

Durang, Xavier; Henkel, Malte

2017-12-01

Motivated by an analogy with the spherical model of a ferromagnet, the three Arcetri models are defined. They present new universality classes, either for the growth of interfaces, or else for lattice gases. They are distinct from the common Edwards-Wilkinson and Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality classes. Their non-equilibrium evolution can be studied by the exact computation of their two-time correlators and responses. In both interpretations, the first model has a critical point in any dimension and shows simple ageing at and below criticality. The exact universal exponents are found. The second and third model are solved at zero temperature, in one dimension, where both show logarithmic sub-ageing, of which several distinct types are identified. Physically, the second model describes a lattice gas and the third model describes interface growth. A clear physical picture on the subsequent time and length scales of the sub-ageing process emerges.

A New Form of Nondestructive Strength-Estimating Statistical Models Accounting for Uncertainty of Model and Aging Effect of Concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Kee Jeung; Kim, Jee Sang

2009-01-01

As concrete ages, the surrounding environment is expected to have growing influences on the concrete. As all the impacts of the environment cannot be considered in the strength-estimating model of a nondestructive concrete test, the increase in concrete age leads to growing uncertainty in the strength-estimating model. Therefore, the variation of the model error increases. It is necessary to include those impacts in the probability model of concrete strength attained from the nondestructive tests so as to build a more accurate reliability model for structural performance evaluation. This paper reviews and categorizes the existing strength-estimating statistical models of nondestructive concrete test, and suggests a new form of the strength-estimating statistical models to properly reflect the model uncertainty due to aging of the concrete. This new form of the statistical models will lay foundation for more accurate structural performance evaluation.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Black carbon ageing in the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis atmospheric general circulation model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Croft

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Black carbon (BC particles in the atmosphere have important impacts on climate. The amount of BC in the atmosphere must be carefully quantified to allow evaluation of the climate effects of this type of aerosol. In this study, we present the treatment of BC aerosol in the developmental version of the 4th generation Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CCCma atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM. The focus of this work is on the conversion of insoluble BC to soluble/mixed BC by physical and chemical ageing. Physical processes include the condensation of sulphuric and nitric acid onto the BC aerosol, and coagulation with more soluble aerosols such as sulphates and nitrates. Chemical processes that may age the BC aerosol include the oxidation of organic coatings by ozone. Four separate parameterizations of the ageing process are compared to a control simulation that assumes no ageing occurs. These simulations use 1 an exponential decay with a fixed 24h half-life, 2 a condensation and coagulation scheme, 3 an oxidative scheme, and 4 a linear combination of the latter two ageing treatments. Global BC burdens are 2.15, 0.15, 0.11, 0.21, and 0.11TgC for the control run, and four ageing schemes, respectively. The BC lifetimes are 98.1, 6.6, 5.0, 9.5, and 4.9 days, respectively. The sensitivity of modelled BC burdens, and concentrations to the factor of two uncertainty in the emissions inventory is shown to be greater than the sensitivity to the parameterization used to represent the BC ageing, except for the oxidation based parameterization. A computationally efficient parameterization that represents the processes of condensation, coagulation, and oxidation is shown to simulate BC ageing well in the CCCma AGCM. As opposed to the globally fixed ageing time scale, this treatment of BC ageing is responsive to varying atmospheric composition.

Toward Reducing Ageism: PEACE (Positive Education about Aging and Contact Experiences) Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Sheri R

2018-03-19

The population of older adults is growing worldwide. Negative ageism (negative attitudes and behavior toward older adults) is a serious international concern that negatively influences not only older adults but also individuals across the age continuum. This article proposes and examines the application of an integrative theoretical model across empirical evidence in the literature on ageism in psychology, medicine, social work, and sociology. The proposed Positive Education about Aging and Contact Experiences (PEACE) model focuses on 2 key contributing factors expected to reduce negative ageism: (a) education about aging including facts on aging along with positive older role models that dispel negative and inaccurate images of older adulthood; and (b) positive contact experiences with older adults that are individualized, provide or promote equal status, are cooperative, involve sharing of personal information, and are sanctioned within the setting. These 2 key contributing factors have the potential to be interconnected and work together to reduce negative stereotypes, aging anxiety, prejudice, and discrimination associated with older adults and aging. This model has implications for policies and programs that can improve the health and well-being of individuals, as well as expand the residential, educational, and career options of individuals across the age continuum.

Aging and physiological changes of the kidneys including changes in glomerular filtration rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Musso, Carlos G; Oreopoulos, Dimitrios G

2011-01-01

In addition to the structural changes in the kidney associated with aging, physiological changes in renal function are also found in older adults, such as decreased glomerular filtration rate, vascular dysautonomia, altered tubular handling of creatinine, reduction in sodium reabsorption and potassium secretion, and diminished renal reserve. These alterations make aged individuals susceptible to the development of clinical conditions in response to usual stimuli that would otherwise be compensated for in younger individuals, including acute kidney injury, volume depletion and overload, disorders of serum sodium and potassium concentration, and toxic reactions to water-soluble drugs excreted by the kidneys. Additionally, the preservation with aging of a normal urinalysis, normal serum urea and creatinine values, erythropoietin synthesis, and normal phosphorus, calcium and magnesium tubular handling distinguishes decreased GFR due to normal aging from that due to chronic kidney disease. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

System Models and Aging: A Driving Example.

Science.gov (United States)

Melichar, Joseph F.

Chronological age is a marker in time but it fails to measure accurately the performance or behavioral characteristics of individuals. This paper models the complexity of aging by using a system model and a human function paradigm. These models help facilitate representation of older adults, integrate research agendas, and enhance remediative…

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Accommodation and age-dependent eye model based on in vivo measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata-Díaz, Juan F; Radhakrishnan, Hema; Charman, W Neil; López-Gil, Norberto

2018-03-21

To develop a flexible model of the average eye that incorporates changes with age and accommodation in all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter, under photopic, natural, environmental conditions. We collated retrospective in vivo measurements of all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter. Ray-tracing was used to calculate the wavefront aberrations of the eye model as a function of age, stimulus vergence and pupil diameter. These aberrations were used to calculate objective refraction using paraxial curvature matching. This was also done for several stimulus positions to calculate the accommodation response/stimulus curve. The model predicts a hyperopic change in distance refraction as the eye ages (+0.22D every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years. The slope of the accommodation response/stimulus curve was 0.72 for a 25 years-old subject, with little change between 20 and 45 years. A trend to a more negative value of primary spherical aberration as the eye accommodates is predicted for all ages (20-50 years). When accommodation is relaxed, a slight increase in primary spherical aberration (0.008μm every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years is predicted, for an age-dependent entrance pupil diameter ranging between 3.58mm (20 years) and 3.05mm (65 years). Results match reasonably well with studies performed in real eyes, except that spherical aberration is systematically slightly negative as compared with the practical data. The proposed eye model is able to predict changes in objective refraction and accommodation response. It has the potential to be a useful design and testing tool for devices (e.g. intraocular lenses or contact lenses) designed to correct the eye's optical errors. Copyright © 2018 Spanish General Council of Optometry. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Céline Christiansen-Jucht

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a “standard” model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors.

Effort-reward imbalance and organisational injustice among aged nurses: a moderated mediation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Topa, Gabriela; Guglielmi, Dina; Depolo, Marco

2016-09-01

To test the effort-reward imbalance model among older nurses, expanding it to include the moderation of overcommitment and age in the stress-health complaints relationship, mediated by organisational injustice. The theoretical framework included the effort-reward imbalance, the uncertainty management and the socio-emotional selectivity models. Employing a two-wave design, the participants were 255 nurses aged 45 years and over, recruited from four large hospitals in Spain (Madrid and Basque Country). The direct effect of imbalance on health complaints was supported: it was significant when overcommitment was low but not when it was high. Organisational injustice mediated the influence of effort-reward imbalance on health complaints. The conditional effect of the mediation of organisational injustice was significant in three of the overcommitment/age conditions but it weakened, becoming non-significant, when the level of overcommitment was low and age was high. The study tested the model in nursing populations and expanded it to the settings of occupational health and safety at work. The results of this study highlight the importance of effort-reward imbalance and organisational justice for creating healthy work environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

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Ivan B. Djordjevic

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which

Modeling Fetal Weight for Gestational Age: A Comparison of a Flexible Multi-level Spline-based Model with Other Approaches

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Villandré, Luc; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Perez Trejo, Maria Esther; Abenhaim, Haim; Jacobsen, Geir; Platt, Robert W

2011-01-01

We present a model for longitudinal measures of fetal weight as a function of gestational age. We use a linear mixed model, with a Box-Cox transformation of fetal weight values, and restricted cubic splines, in order to flexibly but parsimoniously model median fetal weight. We systematically compare our model to other proposed approaches. All proposed methods are shown to yield similar median estimates, as evidenced by overlapping pointwise confidence bands, except after 40 completed weeks, where our method seems to produce estimates more consistent with observed data. Sex-based stratification affects the estimates of the random effects variance-covariance structure, without significantly changing sex-specific fitted median values. We illustrate the benefits of including sex-gestational age interaction terms in the model over stratification. The comparison leads to the conclusion that the selection of a model for fetal weight for gestational age can be based on the specific goals and configuration of a given study without affecting the precision or value of median estimates for most gestational ages of interest. PMID:21931571

Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

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Lisbeth B. Knudsen

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994, age (15-45 and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001.

Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Knudsen, Lisbeth B.; Keiding, Niels

2005-01-01

Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first......-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional...... variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001)....

The potential of artificial aging for modelling of natural aging processes of ballpoint ink.

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Weyermann, Céline; Spengler, Bernhard

2008-08-25

Artificial aging has been used to reproduce natural aging processes in an accelerated pace. Questioned documents were exposed to light or high temperature in a well-defined manner in order to simulate an increased age. This may be used to study the aging processes or to date documents by reproducing their aging curve. Ink was studied especially because it is deposited on the paper when a document, such as a contract, is produced. Once on the paper, aging processes start through degradation of dyes, solvents drying and resins polymerisation. Modelling of dye's and solvent's aging was attempted. These processes, however, follow complex pathways, influenced by many factors which can be classified as three major groups: ink composition, paper type and storage conditions. The influence of these factors is such that different aging states can be obtained for an identical point in time. Storage conditions in particular are difficult to simulate, as they are dependent on environmental conditions (e.g. intensity and dose of light, temperature, air flow, humidity) and cannot be controlled in the natural aging of questioned documents. The problem therefore lies more in the variety of different conditions a questioned document might be exposed to during its natural aging, rather than in the simulation of such conditions in the laboratory. Nevertheless, a precise modelling of natural aging curves based on artificial aging curves is obtained when performed on the same paper and ink. A standard model for aging processes of ink on paper is therefore presented that is based on a fit of aging curves to a power law of solvent concentrations as a function of time. A mathematical transformation of artificial aging curves into modelled natural aging curves results in excellent overlap with data from real natural aging processes.

Age-dependent reliability model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, Sebastian; Sanchez, Ana; Serradell, Vicente

1999-01-01

Nowadays, there is some doubt about building new nuclear power plants (NPPs). Instead, there is a growing interest in analyzing the possibility to extend current NPP operation, where life management programs play an important role. The evolution of the NPP safety depends on the evolution of the reliability of its safety components, which, in turn, is a function of their age along the NPP operational life. In this paper, a new age-dependent reliability model is presented, which includes parameters related to surveillance and maintenance effectiveness and working conditions of the equipment, both environmental and operational. This model may be used to support NPP life management and life extension programs, by improving or optimizing surveillance and maintenance tasks using risk and cost models based on such an age-dependent reliability model. The results of the sensitivity study in the example application show that the selection of the most appropriate maintenance strategy would directly depend on the previous parameters. Then, very important differences are expected to appear under certain circumstances, particularly, in comparison with other models that do not consider maintenance effectiveness and working conditions simultaneously

Advanced age negatively impacts survival in an experimental brain tumor model.

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Ladomersky, Erik; Zhai, Lijie; Gritsina, Galina; Genet, Matthew; Lauing, Kristen L; Wu, Meijing; James, C David; Wainwright, Derek A

2016-09-06

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults, with an average age of 64 years at the time of diagnosis. To study GBM, a number of mouse brain tumor models have been utilized. In these animal models, subjects tend to range from 6 to 12 weeks of age, which is analogous to that of a human teenager. Here, we examined the impact of age on host immunity and the gene expression associated with immune evasion in immunocompetent mice engrafted with syngeneic intracranial GL261. The data indicate that, in mice with brain tumors, youth conveys an advantage to survival. While age did not affect the tumor-infiltrating T cell phenotype or quantity, we discovered that old mice express higher levels of the immunoevasion enzyme, IDO1, which was decreased by the presence of brain tumor. Interestingly, other genes associated with promoting immunosuppression including CTLA-4, PD-L1 and FoxP3, were unaffected by age. These data highlight the possibility that IDO1 contributes to faster GBM outgrowth with advanced age, providing rationale for future investigation into immunotherapeutic targeting in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The yeast replicative aging model.

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He, Chong; Zhou, Chuankai; Kennedy, Brian K

2018-03-08

It has been nearly three decades since the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae became a significant model organism for aging research and it has emerged as both simple and powerful. The replicative aging assay, which interrogates the number of times a "mother" cell can divide and produce "daughters", has been a stalwart in these studies, and genetic approaches have led to the identification of hundreds of genes impacting lifespan. More recently, cell biological and biochemical approaches have been developed to determine how cellular processes become altered with age. Together, the tools are in place to develop a holistic view of aging in this single-celled organism. Here, we summarize the current state of understanding of yeast replicative aging with a focus on the recent studies that shed new light on how aging pathways interact to modulate lifespan in yeast. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

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Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-11-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling of system reliability Petri nets with aging tokens

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volovoi, V.

2004-01-01

The paper addresses the dynamic modeling of degrading and repairable complex systems. Emphasis is placed on the convenience of modeling for the end user, with special attention being paid to the modeling part of a problem, which is considered to be decoupled from the choice of solution algorithms. Depending on the nature of the problem, these solution algorithms can include discrete event simulation or numerical solution of the differential equations that govern underlying stochastic processes. Such modularity allows a focus on the needs of system reliability modeling and tailoring of the modeling formalism accordingly. To this end, several salient features are chosen from the multitude of existing extensions of Petri nets, and a new concept of aging tokens (tokens with memory) is introduced. The resulting framework provides for flexible and transparent graphical modeling with excellent representational power that is particularly suited for system reliability modeling with non-exponentially distributed firing times. The new framework is compared with existing Petri-net approaches and other system reliability modeling techniques such as reliability block diagrams and fault trees. The relative differences are emphasized and illustrated with several examples, including modeling of load sharing, imperfect repair of pooled items, multiphase missions, and damage-tolerant maintenance. Finally, a simple implementation of the framework using discrete event simulation is described

Progressive IRP Models for Power Resources Including EPP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiping Zhu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the view of optimizing regional power supply and demand, the paper makes effective planning scheduling of supply and demand side resources including energy efficiency power plant (EPP, to achieve the target of benefit, cost, and environmental constraints. In order to highlight the characteristics of different supply and demand resources in economic, environmental, and carbon constraints, three planning models with progressive constraints are constructed. Results of three models by the same example show that the best solutions to different models are different. The planning model including EPP has obvious advantages considering pollutant and carbon emission constraints, which confirms the advantages of low cost and emissions of EPP. The construction of progressive IRP models for power resources considering EPP has a certain reference value for guiding the planning and layout of EPP within other power resources and achieving cost and environmental objectives.

Accounting for age uncertainty in growth modeling, the case study of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares of the Indian Ocean.

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Emmanuelle Dortel

Full Text Available Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the sagittal otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can

Mathematical modelling the age dependence of Epstein-Barr virus associated infectious mononucleosis.

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Huynh, Giao T; Adler, Frederick R

2012-09-01

Most people get Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection at young age and are asymptomatic. Primary EBV infection in adolescents and young adults, however, often leads to infectious mononucleosis (IM) with symptoms including fever, fatigue and sore throat that can persist for months. Expansion in the number of CD8(+) T cells, especially against EBV lytic proteins, are the main cause of these symptoms. We propose a mathematical model for the regulation of EBV infection within a host to address the dependence of IM on age. This model tracks the number of virus, infected B cell and epithelial cell and CD8(+) T-cell responses to the infection. We use this model to investigate three hypotheses for the high incidence of IM in teenagers and young adults: saliva and antibody effects that increase with age, high cross-reactive T-cell responses and a high initial viral load. The model supports the first two of these hypotheses and suggests that variation in host antibody responses and the complexity of the pre-existing cross-reactive T-cell repertoire, both of which depend on age, may play important roles in the etiology of IM.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

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Troy W Grovenburg

Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

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Philipp, Oliver; Hamann, Andrea; Servos, Jörg; Werner, Alexandra; Koch, Ina; Osiewacz, Heinz D

2013-01-01

Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression). A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i) present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii) suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii) present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

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Oliver Philipp

Full Text Available Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression. A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

1986-01-01

In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks

A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

1987-01-01

In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling is discussed in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates of risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks. 16 refs.; 3 figs.; 1 table

Anti-aging effect of adipose-derived stem cells in a mouse model of skin aging induced by D-galactose.

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Shengchang Zhang

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Glycation products accumulate during aging of slowly renewing tissue, including skin, and are suggested as an important mechanism underlying the skin aging process. Adipose-derived cells are widely used in the clinic to treat ischemic diseases and enhance wound healing. Interestingly, adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs are also effective in anti-aging therapy, although the mechanism underlying their effects remains unknown. The purpose of the present study was to examine the anti-aging effect of ASCs in a D-galactose-induced aging animal model and to clarify the underlying mechanism. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six-week-old nude mice were subcutaneously injected with D-gal daily for 8 weeks. Two weeks after completion of treatment, mice were randomized to receive subcutaneous injections of 106 green fluorescent protein (GFP-expressing ASCs, aminoguanidine (AG or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS. Control mice received no treatment. We examined tissue histology and determined the activity of senescence-associated molecular markers such as superoxide dismutase (SOD and malondialdehyde (MDA. RESULTS: Transplanted ASCs were detectable for 14 days and their GFP signal disappeared at day 28 after injection. ASCs inhibited advanced glycation end product (AGE levels in our animal model as well as increased the SOD level and decreased the MDA level, all of which act to reverse the aging phenotype in a similar way to AG, an inhibitor of AGE formation. Furthermore, ASCs released angiogenic factors in vivo such as vascular endothelial growth factor, suggesting a skin trophic effect. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that ASCs may contribute to the regeneration of skin during aging. In addition, the data shows that ASCs provide a functional benefit by glycation suppression, antioxidation, and trophic effects in a mouse model of aging.

Adaptive model of the aging emmetropic eye and its changes with accommodation.

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Navarro, Rafael

2014-11-20

A general schematic model of the optical system of the emmetropic human eye is proposed, capable of adapting to changes with age and accommodation through adjustment of the optical surfaces and the internal gradient index structure of the lens. The specific models of the cornea and lens consist of minor generalizations of previous work by assuming them to be the sum of a biconic plus three higher order Zernike modes. The internal gradient index distribution adapts to the external shape so that the analytical expression is invariant with the changes with age and accommodation. The model also includes tips, tilts, and decentrations of the surfaces according to experimental findings. The specific parameters of these models are either constants or functions of age and/or accommodation. The model is polychromatic, and its optical performance was evaluated along the keratometric axis. Chromatic aberrations (longitudinal and transverse), astigmatism, coma, trefoil, and spherical aberration show good agreement with experimental averages. The change of these aberrations as a function of age or accommodation is also consistent with experimental findings (except for trefoil in eyes older than 50 years). This means that the average structure seems to predict the average performance. Nevertheless, the present model is too schematic to account for other higher order aberrations, such as tetrafoil, also present in real eyes. © 2014 ARVO.

Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

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David J Sharrow

Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

Development of the Thai healthy aging model: A grounded theory study.

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Thiamwong, Ladda; McManus, Michael S; Suwanno, Jom

2013-06-01

To develop a model of healthy aging from the perspective of Thais, a grounded theory approach, including in-depth interviews and focus groups, was used. A purposive sample of 39 community-dwelling adults aged 40-85 years old was interviewed. The Thai healthy aging model composed of three themes: normality, nature, and dharma. In Thai, they are called tham-ma-da, tham-ma-chat, and tham-ma, or "Thai 3Ts". The theme of normality encompasses subthemes of staying physically active by being involved in plenty of physical activities, and being mentally active with creative and thoughtful hobbies and work. The theme of nature encompasses subthemes of living simply and being careful with money. The theme of dharma encompasses subthemes of enjoyment through helping family and participating in community activities, staying away from stress and worries by talking openly and honestly with someone, making merit, and helping other people without expecting anything in return. A greater understanding of healthy aging is a benefit for older adults and healthcare providers in an intervention-design process. Research can contribute valuable information to shape policy for healthy aging as well. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Flexible parametric survival models built on age-specific antimüllerian hormone percentiles are better predictors of menopause.

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Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Steyerberg, Ewout; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-06-01

This study aimed to improve existing prediction models for age at menopause. We identified all reproductive aged women with regular menstrual cycles who met our eligibility criteria (n = 1,015) in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study-an ongoing population-based cohort study initiated in 1998. Participants were examined every 3 years and their reproductive histories were recorded. Blood levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) were measured at the time of recruitment. Age at menopause was estimated based on serum concentrations of AMH using flexible parametric survival models. The optimum model was selected according to Akaike Information Criteria and the realness of the range of predicted median menopause age. We followed study participants for a median of 9.8 years during which 277 women reached menopause and found that a spline-based proportional odds model including age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate performed well in terms of statistical criteria and provided the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions. The range of predicted median age at menopause for this model was 47.1 to 55.9 years. For those who reached menopause, the median of the absolute mean difference between actual and predicted age at menopause was 1.9 years (interquartile range 2.9). The model including the age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate and using proportional odds as its covariate metrics meets all the statistical criteria for the best model and provides the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions for age at menopause for reproductive-aged women.

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

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Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

2006-08-01

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

Measurement network design including traveltime determinations to minimize model prediction uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, G.M.C.M.; Valstar, J.R.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

2008-01-01

Traveltime determinations have found increasing application in the characterization of groundwater systems. No algorithms are available, however, to optimally design sampling strategies including this information type. We propose a first-order methodology to include groundwater age or tracer arrival

Shared Ageing Research Models (ShARM) : a new facility to support ageing research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duran, Adele L.; Potter, Paul; Wells, Sara; Kirkwood, Tom; von Zglinicki, Thomas; McArdle, Anne; Scudamore, Cheryl; Meng, Qing-Jun; de Haan, Gerald; Corcoran, Anne; Bellantuono, Ilaria

2013-01-01

In order to manage the rise in life expectancy and the concomitant increased occurrence of age-related diseases, research into ageing has become a strategic priority. Mouse models are commonly utilised as they share high homology with humans and show many similar signs and diseases of ageing.

Stem Cell Models: A Guide to Understand and Mitigate Aging?

Science.gov (United States)

Brunauer, Regina; Alavez, Silvestre; Kennedy, Brian K

2017-01-01

Aging is studied either on a systemic level using life span and health span of animal models, or on the cellular level using replicative life span of yeast or mammalian cells. While useful in identifying general and conserved pathways of aging, both approaches provide only limited information about cell-type specific causes and mechanisms of aging. Stem cells are the regenerative units of multicellular life, and stem cell aging might be a major cause for organismal aging. Using the examples of hematopoietic stem cell aging and human pluripotent stem cell models, we propose that stem cell models of aging are valuable for studying tissue-specific causes and mechanisms of aging and can provide unique insights into the mammalian aging process that may be inaccessible in simple model organisms. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

A new mathematical model of gastrointestinal transit incorporating age- and gender-dependent physiological parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stubbs, J.B.

1992-01-01

As part of the revision by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) of its report on Reference Man, an extensive review of the literature regarding anatomy and morphology of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract has been completed. Data on age- and gender-dependent GI physiology and motility may be included in the proposed ICRP report. A new mathematical model describing the transit of substances through the GI tract as well as the absorption and secretion of material in the GI tract has been developed. This mathematical description of GI tract kinetics utilizes more physiologically accurate transit processes than the mathematically simple, but nonphysiological, GI tract model that was used in ICRP Report 30. The proposed model uses a combination of zero- and first-order kinetics to describe motility. Some of the physiological parameters that the new model accounts for include sex, age, pathophysiological condition and meal phase (solid versus liquid). A computer algorithm, written in BASIC, based on this new model has been derived and results are compared to those of the ICRP-30 model

Virtual age model for equipment aging plant based on operation environment and service state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Liming; Cai Qi; Zhao Xinwen; Chen Ling

2010-01-01

The accelerated life model based on the operation environment and service state was established by taking the virtual age as the equipment aging indices. The effect of different operation environments and service states on the reliability and virtual age under the continuum operation conditions and cycle operation conditions were analyzed, and the sensitivities of virtual age on operational environments and service states were studied. The results of the example application show that the effect of NPP equipment lifetime and the key parameters related to the reliability can be quantified by this model, and the result is in accordance with the reality.(authors)

An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

2015-03-01

This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

2017-08-01

A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

Spatial age-length key modelling using continuation ratio logits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berg, Casper W.; Kristensen, Kasper

2012-01-01

-called age-length key (ALK) is then used to obtain the age distribution. Regional differences in ALKs are not uncommon, but stratification is often problematic due to a small number of samples. Here, we combine generalized additive modelling with continuation ratio logits to model the probability of age...

VSNL1 Co-expression networks in aging include calcium signaling, synaptic plasticity, and Alzheimer’s disease pathways

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C W Lin

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The Visinin-like 1 (VSNL1 gene encodes Visinin-like protein 1, a peripheral biomarker for Alzheimer disease (AD. Little is known, however, about normal VSNL1 expression in brain and the biologic networks in which it participates. Frontal cortex gray matter from 209 subjects without neurodegenerative or psychiatric illness, ranging in age from 16–91, were processed on Affymetrix GeneChip 1.1 ST and Human SNP Array 6.0. VSNL1 expression was unaffected by age and sex, and not significantly associated with SNPs in cis or trans. VSNL1 was significantly co-expressed with genes in pathways for Calcium Signaling, AD, Long Term Potentiation, Long Term Depression, and Trafficking of AMPA Receptors. The association with AD was driven, in part, by correlation with amyloid precursor protein (APP expression. These findings provide an unbiased link between VSNL1 and molecular mechanisms of AD, including pathways implicated in synaptic pathology in AD. Whether APP may drive increased VSNL1 expression, VSNL1 drives increased APP expression, or both are downstream of common pathogenic regulators will need to be evaluated in model systems.

Canadian government's framing of ageing at work and older workers: Echoing positive ageing models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagacé, Martine; Nahon-Serfaty, Isaac; Laplante, Joelle

2015-01-01

Public representations of ageing can influence how individuals perceive their own experience of ageing. Results of studies on the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s governmental messages on older workers suggest that they are mainly constructed around economic productivity and personal responsibility. The goal of this study is to examine how the Canadian government frames issues around ageing, work and older workers. Canada is facing a rapidly ageing workforce, hence the importance of examining how the government discusses ageing at work. A thematic content analysis was conducted on a total of 154 government web pages. Results revealed that predominant themes revolve around economic challenges resulting from an ageing workforce. Older workers are depicted as a key component for the (economic) management of an ageing workforce. More specifically, older workers who intend to continue working are highly valued in the government's messages which present them as productive citizens and role models for "ageing well". Canada's response to the challenges of an ageing workforce echoes the underlying standards of positive ageing models, which may generate, perhaps inadvertently, a new form of ageism by creating intra-and intergenerational divides in the workplace.

Total deposition of inhaled particles related to age: comparison with age-dependent model calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becquemin, M.H.; Bouchikhi, A.; Yu, C.P.; Roy, M.

1991-01-01

To compare experimental data with age-dependent model calculations, total airway deposition of polystyrene aerosols (1, 2.05 and 2.8 μm aerodynamic diameter) was measured in ten adults, twenty children aged 12 to 15 years, ten children aged 8 to 12, and eleven under 8 years old. Ventilation was controlled, and breathing patterns were appropriate for each age, either at rest or at light exercise. Individually, deposition percentages increased with particle size and also from rest to exercise, except in children under 12 years, in whom they decreased from 20-21.5 to 14-14.5 for 1 μm particles and from 36.8-36.9 to 32.2-33.1 for 2.05 μm particles. Comparisons with the age-dependent model showed that, at rest, the observed data concerning children agreed with those predicted and were close to the adults' values, when the latter were higher than predicted. At exercise, child data were lower than predicted and lower than adult experimental data, when the latter agreed fairly well with the model. (author)

Unsteady panel method for complex configurations including wake modeling

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Van Zyl, Lourens H

2008-01-01

Full Text Available implementations of the DLM are however not very versatile in terms of geometries that can be modeled. The ZONA6 code offers a versatile surface panel body model including a separated wake model, but uses a pressure panel method for lifting surfaces. This paper...

A Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model to Optimize Equipment Maintenance Resources Over Plant Lifetime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Theodore A.; Perdue, Robert K.; Woodcock, Joel; Elder, G. Gary

2002-01-01

Experience has shown that proactive aging/asset management can best be defined as an ongoing process. Station goals directly supported by such a process include reducing Unplanned Capability Loss Factor and gaining the optimum value from maintenance and aging management budgets. An effective aging/asset management process must meet evolving and sometimes conflicting requirements for efficient and reliable nuclear power plant operation. The process should identify most likely contributors before they fail, and develop cost-effective contingencies. Current trends indicate the need for focused tools that give quantitative input to decision-making. Opposing goals, such as increasing availability while optimizing aging management budgets, must be balanced. Recognizing the importance of experience in reducing the uncertainty inherent in predicting equipment degradation rates, nuclear industry demographics suggest the need to capture existing expert knowledge in a usable form. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Process has been developed to address these needs. The proactive approach is a process supported by tools. The process identifies goals and develops criteria - including safety, costs, and power production - that are used to prioritize systems and equipment across the plant. The process then draws upon tools to most effectively meet the plant's goals. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model TM is one software-enabled tool designed for mathematical optimization. Results assist a plant in developing a plant-wide plan of aging management activities. This paper describes the proactive aging/asset management process and provides an overview of the methodology that has been incorporated in a model to perform a plant-wide optimization of aging management activities. (authors)

An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilberto González Parra

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

Practical problems of groundwater model ages for groundwater protection studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthess, G.; Muennich, K.O.; Sonntag, C.

1976-01-01

Water authorities in the Federal Republic of Germany have established a system of protection zones for the protection of groundwater supplies from pollution. One zone (Zone II) is defined by an outer boundary from which the groundwater needs 50 days to flow to the well. 50 days is the period accepted for the elimination of pathogenic germs. However, within Zone II carbon-14 measurements of water may give model ages of several thousand years, which may lead to some confusion in the legal and practical aspects of this scheme. These model ages may result from uncertainties in the chemical model, or from mixing of waters of different ages, either within the aquifer or during extraction at the well. The paper discusses scientific aspects of the establishment of protection zones. Two processes affecting the model age determinations are examined in detail. First, the mechanism of diffusion transport downwards through porous, but impermeable, aquicludes is examined for stable trace substances and radioactive isotopes. Secondly, examples are given of model ages resulting from mixtures of new and old waters. It is recommended that such model ages should not be reported as 'ages' since they may be misinterpreted in groundwater protection applications. (author)

New Perspectives on Rodent Models of Advanced Paternal Age: Relevance to Autism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire J Foldi

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Offspring of older fathers have an increased risk of various adverse health outcomes, including autism and schizophrenia. With respect to biological mechanisms for this association, there are many more germline cell divisions in the life history of a sperm relative to that of an oocyte. This leads to more opportunities for copy error mutations in germ cells from older fathers. Evidence also suggests that epigenetic patterning in the sperm from older men is altered. Rodent models provide an experimental platform to examine the association between paternal age and brain development. Several rodent models of advanced paternal age (APA have been published with relevance to intermediate phenotypes related to autism. All four published APA models vary in key features creating a lack of consistency with respect to behavioural phenotypes. A consideration of common phenotypes that emerge from these APA-related mouse models may be informative in the exploration of the molecular and neurobiological correlates of APA.

Age correction in monitoring audiometry: method to update OSHA age-correction tables to include older workers

OpenAIRE

Dobie, Robert A; Wojcik, Nancy C

2015-01-01

Objectives The US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Noise Standard provides the option for employers to apply age corrections to employee audiograms to consider the contribution of ageing when determining whether a standard threshold shift has occurred. Current OSHA age-correction tables are based on 40-year-old data, with small samples and an upper age limit of 60?years. By comparison, recent data (1999?2006) show that hearing thresholds in the US population have improved....

Degradation modeling with application to aging and maintenance effectiveness evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Hsu, F.; Subduhi, M.; Vesely, W.E.

1990-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach to analyze component degradation and failure data to understand the aging process of components. As used here, degradation modeling is the analysis of information on component degradation in order to develop models of the process and its implications. This particular modeling focuses on the analysis of the times of component degradations, to model how the rate of degradation changes with the age of the component. The methodology presented also discusses the effectiveness of maintenance as applicable to aging evaluations. The specific applications which are performed show quantitative models of component degradation rates and component failure rates from plant-specific data. The statistical techniques which are developed and applied allow aging trends to be effectively identified in the degradation data, and in the failure data. Initial estimates of the effectiveness of maintenance in limiting degradations from becoming failures also are developed. These results are important first steps in degradation modeling, and show that degradation can be modeled to identify aging trends. 2 refs., 8 figs

Degradation modeling with application to aging and maintenance effectiveness evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Hsu, F.; Subudhi, M.

1991-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach to analyze light water reactor component degradation and failure data to understand the aging process of components. As used here, degradation modeling is the analysis of information on component degradation in order to develop models of the process and its implications. This particular modeling focuses on the analysis of the times of component degradations, to model how the rate of degradation changes with the age of the component. The methodology presented also discusses the effectiveness of maintenance as applicable to aging evaluations. The specific applications which are performed show quantitative models of component degradation rates and component failure rates from plant-specific data. The statistical techniques which are developed and applied allow aging trends to be effectively identified in the degradation data, and in the failure data. Initial estimates of the effectiveness of maintenance in limiting degradations from becoming failures also are developed. These results are important first steps in degradation modeling, and show that degradation can be modeled to identify aging trends

Stochastic modelling of two-phase flows including phase change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurisse, O.; Minier, J.P.

2011-01-01

Stochastic modelling has already been developed and applied for single-phase flows and incompressible two-phase flows. In this article, we propose an extension of this modelling approach to two-phase flows including phase change (e.g. for steam-water flows). Two aspects are emphasised: a stochastic model accounting for phase transition and a modelling constraint which arises from volume conservation. To illustrate the whole approach, some remarks are eventually proposed for two-fluid models. (authors)

Age-dependent metabolic model of radionuclides in Human body

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Changqing

1986-01-01

Age-dependent metabolic model of radionuclides in human body was introduced briefly. These data are necessary in setting up the secondary dose limit of internal exposure of the general public. For the gastro-intestinal tract model, it was shown that the dose of various sections of GI tract caused by unsoluble radioactive materials were influenced by the mass of section and mean residence time, both of which are age-dependent, but the absorption fraction f 1 through gastro-intestinal tract should be corrected only for the infant less than 1 year of age. For the lung model, it was indicated that the fraction of deposition or clearance of particles in the different compartments of lung were related to age. The doses of tracheobronchial and pulmonary compartment of adult for 222 Rn or 220 Rn with their decay products were one third of that of 6-years old child who received the maximum dose in comparison with other ages. The age-dependent metabolic models in organ and/or body of Tritium, Iodine-131, Caesium-137, radioactive Strontium, Radium and Plutonium were reported. A generalized approach for estimating the effect of age on deposition fractions and retention half-time were presented. Calculated results indicated that younger ages were characterized by increased deposition fraction and decreased half-time for retention. Representative examples were provided for 21 elements of current interest in health physics

A technique of including the effect of aging of passive components in probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, J.H.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

1992-01-01

The probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) being developed at most nuclear power plants to calculate the risk of core damage generally focus on the possible failure of active components. The possible failure of passive components is given little consideration. We are developing methods for selecting risk-significant passive components and including them in PRAS. These methods provide effective ways to prioritize passive components for inspection, and where inspection reveals aging damage, mitigation or repair can be employed to reduce the likelihood of component failure. We demonstrated a method by selecting a weld in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system, basing our selection on expert judgement of the likelihood of failure and on an estimate of the consequence of component failure to plant safety. We then modified and used the Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code to perform a probabilistic structural analysis to calculate the probability that crack growth due to aging would cause the weld to fail. The PRAISE code was modified to include the effects of changing design material properties with age and changing stress cycles. The calculation included the effects of mechanical loads and thermal transients typical of the service loads for this piping design and the effects of thermal cycling caused by a leaking check valve. However, this particular calculation showed little change in low component failure probability and plant risk for 48 years of service. However, sensitivity studies showed that if the probability of component failure is high, the effect on plant risk is significant. The success of this demonstration shows that this method could be applied to nuclear power plants. The demonstration showed the method is too involved (PRAISE takes a long time to perform the calculation and the input information is extensive) for handling a large number of passive components and therefore simpler methods are needed

Pathology of Mouse Models of Accelerated Aging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harkema, L.; Youssef, S. A.; de Bruin, A.

Progeroid mouse models display phenotypes in multiple organ systems that suggest premature aging and resemble features of natural aging of both mice and humans. The prospect of a significant increase in the global elderly population within the next decades has led to the emergence of geroscience,

Pathology of Mouse Models of Accelerated Aging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harkema, L; Youssef, S A; de Bruin, A

2016-01-01

Progeroid mouse models display phenotypes in multiple organ systems that suggest premature aging and resemble features of natural aging of both mice and humans. The prospect of a significant increase in the global elderly population within the next decades has led to the emergence of "geroscience,"

Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

2016-08-18

Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

Animal models of age related macular degeneration

Science.gov (United States)

Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

Carcinogen specific dosimetry model for passive smokers of various ages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, Risa J.

2005-01-01

Studies indicate that being exposed to second hand smoke increases the chance of developing lung cancer. Understanding the deposition of carcinogenic particles present in second hand smoke is necessary to understand the development of specific histologic type cancers. In this study, a deposition model is presented for subjects of various ages exposed to sidestream smoke. The model included particle dynamics of coagulation, hygroscopic growth, charge and cloud behavior. Concentrations were varied from the maximum measured indoor concentrations (10 6 particles/cm 3 ) to what would be expected from wisps of smoke (10 8 particles/cm 3 ). Model results agreed well with experimental data taken from human subject deposition measurements (four studies). The model results were used to determine the dose intensity (dose per unit airway surface area) of Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in the respiratory tract for subjects of various ages. Model predictions for BaP surface concentration on the airway walls paralleled incident rates of tumors by location in the upper tracheobronchial region. Mass deposition efficiency was found to be larger for younger subjects, consistent with diffusion being the predominant mechanism for this particle size range. However, the actual dose intensity of BaP was found to be smaller for children than adults. This occurred due to the predominant effect of the smaller initial inhaled mass for children resulting from smaller tidal volumes. The resulting model is a useful tool to predict carcinogen specific particle deposition

Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

Science.gov (United States)

Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

2009-01-01

Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Age-depth modelling with radiocarbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howarth, J.D.

2017-01-01

Chronology is a critical component of any study into the Quaternary because the information about climate and environmental change preserved in sedimentary deposits can only be placed in a useful context when it is associated with a robust chronological framework. This overview will introduce you to the key concepts in age depth modelling.

Modeling Electric Double-Layers Including Chemical Reaction Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

2014-01-01

A physicochemical and numerical model for the transient formation of an electric double-layer between an electrolyte and a chemically-active flat surface is presented, based on a finite elements integration of the nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson model including chemical reactions. The model works...... for symmetric and asymmetric multi-species electrolytes and is not limited to a range of surface potentials. Numerical simulations are presented, for the case of a CaCO3 electrolyte solution in contact with a surface with rate-controlled protonation/deprotonation reactions. The surface charge and potential...... are determined by the surface reactions, and therefore they depends on the bulk solution composition and concentration...

Age- and sex-specific thorax finite element model development and simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Vavalle, Nicholas A; Stitzel, Joel D

2015-01-01

The shape, size, bone density, and cortical thickness of the thoracic skeleton vary significantly with age and sex, which can affect the injury tolerance, especially in at-risk populations such as the elderly. Computational modeling has emerged as a powerful and versatile tool to assess injury risk. However, current computational models only represent certain ages and sexes in the population. The purpose of this study was to morph an existing finite element (FE) model of the thorax to depict thorax morphology for males and females of ages 30 and 70 years old (YO) and to investigate the effect on injury risk. Age- and sex-specific FE models were developed using thin-plate spline interpolation. In order to execute the thin-plate spline interpolation, homologous landmarks on the reference, target, and FE model are required. An image segmentation and registration algorithm was used to collect homologous rib and sternum landmark data from males and females aged 0-100 years. The Generalized Procrustes Analysis was applied to the homologous landmark data to quantify age- and sex-specific isolated shape changes in the thorax. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) 50th percentile male occupant model was morphed to create age- and sex-specific thoracic shape change models (scaled to a 50th percentile male size). To evaluate the thoracic response, 2 loading cases (frontal hub impact and lateral impact) were simulated to assess the importance of geometric and material property changes with age and sex. Due to the geometric and material property changes with age and sex, there were observed differences in the response of the thorax in both the frontal and lateral impacts. Material property changes alone had little to no effect on the maximum thoracic force or the maximum percent compression. With age, the thorax becomes stiffer due to superior rotation of the ribs, which can result in increased bone strain that can increase the risk of fracture. For the 70-YO models

An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

Mouse models of ageing and their relevance to disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Kõks, Sulev; Dogan, Soner; Tuna, Bilge Guvenc; González-Navarro, Herminia; Potter, Paul; Vandenbroucke, Roosmarijn E

2016-12-01

Ageing is a process that gradually increases the organism's vulnerability to death. It affects different biological pathways, and the underlying cellular mechanisms are complex. In view of the growing disease burden of ageing populations, increasing efforts are being invested in understanding the pathways and mechanisms of ageing. We review some mouse models commonly used in studies on ageing, highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the different strategies, and discuss their relevance to disease susceptibility. In addition to addressing the genetics and phenotypic analysis of mice, we discuss examples of models of delayed or accelerated ageing and their modulation by caloric restriction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

MOD-AGE - an algorithm for age-depth model construction; U-series dated speleothems case study

Science.gov (United States)

Hercman, H.; Pawlak, J.

2012-04-01

We present MOD-AGE - a new system for chronology construction. MOD-AGE can be used for profiles that have been dated by different methods. As input data, the system uses the following basic measurements: activities, atomic ratios or age, as well as depth measurement. Based on probability distributions describing the measurement results, MOD-AGE estimates the age~depth relation and its confidence bands. To avoid the use of difficult-to-meet assumptions, MOD-AGE uses nonparametric methods. We applied a Monte Carlo simulation to model age and depth values based on the real distribution of counted data (activities, atomic ratios, depths etc.). Several fitting methods could be applied for estimating the relationships; based on several tests, we decide to use LOESS method (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing). The stratigraphic correction procedure applied in the MOD-AGE program uses a probability calculus, which assumes that the ages of all the samples are correctly estimated. Information about the probability distribution of the samples' ages is used to estimate the most probable sequence that is concordant according to the superposition rule. MOD-AGE is presented as a tool for the chronology construction of speleothems that have been analyzed by the U-series method, and it is compared to the StalAge algorithm presented by D. Scholtz and D.L Hoffmann (2011). Scholtz, D., Hoffmann, D. L., 2011. StalAge - An algorithm designed for construction of speleothem age models. Quaternary Geochronology 6, 369-382.

Mouse models of telomere dysfunction phenocopy skeletal changes found in human age-related osteoporosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tracy A. Brennan

2014-05-01

Full Text Available A major medical challenge in the elderly is osteoporosis and the high risk of fracture. Telomere dysfunction is a cause of cellular senescence and telomere shortening, which occurs with age in cells from most human tissues, including bone. Telomere defects contribute to the pathogenesis of two progeroid disorders characterized by premature osteoporosis, Werner syndrome and dyskeratosis congenital. It is hypothesized that telomere shortening contributes to bone aging. We evaluated the skeletal phenotypes of mice with disrupted telomere maintenance mechanisms as models for human bone aging, including mutants in Werner helicase (Wrn−/−, telomerase (Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− double mutants. Compared with young wild-type (WT mice, micro-computerized tomography analysis revealed that young Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− mice have decreased trabecular bone volume, trabecular number and trabecular thickness, as well as increased trabecular spacing. In cortical bone, young Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− mice have increased cortical thinning, and increased porosity relative to age-matched WT mice. These trabecular and cortical changes were accelerated with age in Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− mice compared with older WT mice. Histological quantification of osteoblasts in aged mice showed a similar number of osteoblasts in all genotypes; however, significant decreases in osteoid, mineralization surface, mineral apposition rate and bone formation rate in older Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− bone suggest that osteoblast dysfunction is a prominent feature of precocious aging in these mice. Except in the Wrn−/− single mutant, osteoclast number did not increase in any genotype. Significant alterations in mechanical parameters (structure model index, degree of anistrophy and moment of inertia of the Terc−/− and Wrn−/−Terc−/− femurs compared with WT mice were also observed. Young Wrn�

MODEL OF THE TOKAMAK EDGE DENSITY PEDESTAL INCLUDING DIFFUSIVE NEUTRALS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BURRELL, K.H.

2003-01-01

OAK-B135 Several previous analytic models of the tokamak edge density pedestal have been based on diffusive transport of plasma plus free-streaming of neutrals. This latter neutral model includes only the effect of ionization and neglects charge exchange. The present work models the edge density pedestal using diffusive transport for both the plasma and the neutrals. In contrast to the free-streaming model, a diffusion model for the neutrals includes the effect of both charge exchange and ionization and is valid when charge exchange is the dominant interaction. Surprisingly, the functional forms for the electron and neutral density profiles from the present calculation are identical to the results of the previous analytic models. There are some differences in the detailed definition of various parameters in the solution. For experimentally relevant cases where ionization and charge exchange rate are comparable, both models predict approximately the same width for the edge density pedestal

Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

Science.gov (United States)

Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

2016-03-01

Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

Stability analysis for a general age-dependent vaccination model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Doma, M.

1995-05-01

An SIR epidemic model of a general age-dependent vaccination model is investigated when the fertility, mortality and removal rates depends on age. We give threshold criteria of the existence of equilibriums and perform stability analysis. Furthermore a critical vaccination coverage that is sufficient to eradicate the disease is determined. (author). 12 refs

BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelena Jovanović

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

Double-gate junctionless transistor model including short-channel effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paz, B C; Pavanello, M A; Ávila-Herrera, F; Cerdeira, A

2015-01-01

This work presents a physically based model for double-gate junctionless transistors (JLTs), continuous in all operation regimes. To describe short-channel transistors, short-channel effects (SCEs), such as increase of the channel potential due to drain bias, carrier velocity saturation and mobility degradation due to vertical and longitudinal electric fields, are included in a previous model developed for long-channel double-gate JLTs. To validate the model, an analysis is made by using three-dimensional numerical simulations performed in a Sentaurus Device Simulator from Synopsys. Different doping concentrations, channel widths and channel lengths are considered in this work. Besides that, the series resistance influence is numerically included and validated for a wide range of source and drain extensions. In order to check if the SCEs are appropriately described, besides drain current, transconductance and output conductance characteristics, the following parameters are analyzed to demonstrate the good agreement between model and simulation and the SCEs occurrence in this technology: threshold voltage (V TH ), subthreshold slope (S) and drain induced barrier lowering. (paper)

Model for safety reports including descriptive examples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

Several safety reports will be produced in the process of planning and constructing the system for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Sweden. The present report gives a model, with detailed examples, of how these reports should be organized and what steps they should include. In the near future safety reports will deal with the encapsulation plant and the repository. Later reports will treat operation of the handling systems and the repository

Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vest Christiansen, Anders; Auken, Esben; Marker, Pernille Aabye

for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all......-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which...

Modeling basic creep in concrete at early-age under compressive and tensile loading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hilaire, Adrien, E-mail: adrien.hilaire@ens-cachan.fr [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Benboudjema, Farid; Darquennes, Aveline; Berthaud, Yves [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Nahas, Georges [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Institut de radioprotection et de sureté nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

2014-04-01

A numerical model has been developed to predict early age cracking for massive concrete structures, and especially concrete nuclear containment vessels. Major phenomena are included: hydration, heat diffusion, autogenous and thermal shrinkage, creep and cracking. Since studied structures are massive, drying is not taken into account. Such modeling requires the identification of several material parameters. Literature data is used to validate the basic creep model. A massive wall, representative of a concrete nuclear containment, is simulated; predicted cracking is consistent with observation and is found highly sensitive to the creep phenomenon.

Oxidative Damage and Cellular Defense Mechanisms in Sea Urchin Models of Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Colin; Anderson, Arielle; Lortie, Mae; Parsons, Rachel; Bodnar, Andrea

2013-01-01

The free radical or oxidative stress theory of aging proposes that the accumulation of oxidative cellular damage is a major contributor to the aging process and a key determinant of species longevity. This study investigates the oxidative stress theory in a novel model for aging research, the sea urchin. Sea urchins present a unique model for the study of aging due to the existence of species with tremendously different natural life spans including some species with extraordinary longevity and negligible senescence. Cellular oxidative damage, antioxidant capacity and proteasome enzyme activities were measured in the tissues of three sea urchin species: short-lived Lytechinus variegatus, long-lived Strongylocentrotus franciscanus and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus which has an intermediate lifespan. Levels of protein carbonyls and 4-hydroxynonenal (HNE) measured in tissues (muscle, nerve, esophagus, gonad, coelomocytes, ampullae) and 8-hydroxy-2’-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) measured in cell-free coelomic fluid showed no general increase with age. The fluorescent age-pigment lipofuscin measured in muscle, nerve and esophagus, increased with age however it appeared to be predominantly extracellular. Antioxidant mechanisms (total antioxidant capacity, superoxide dismutase) and proteasome enzyme activities were maintained with age. In some instances, levels of oxidative damage were lower and antioxidant activity higher in cells or tissues of the long-lived species compared to the short-lived species, however further studies are required to determine the relationship between oxidative damage and longevity in these animals. Consistent with the predictions of the oxidative stress theory of aging, the results suggest that negligible senescence is accompanied by a lack of accumulation of cellular oxidative damage with age and maintenance of antioxidant capacity and proteasome enzyme activities may be important mechanisms to mitigate damage. PMID:23707327

Practical applications of age-dependent reliability models and analysis of operational data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lannoy, A.; Nitoi, M.; Backstrom, O.; Burgazzi, L.; Couallier, V.; Nikulin, M.; Derode, A.; Rodionov, A.; Atwood, C.; Fradet, F.; Antonov, A.; Berezhnoy, A.; Choi, S.Y.; Starr, F.; Dawson, J.; Palmen, H.; Clerjaud, L

2005-07-01

The purpose of the workshop was to present the experience of practical application of time-dependent reliability models. The program of the workshop comprises the following sessions: -) aging management and aging PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), -) modeling, -) operation experience, and -) accelerating aging tests. In order to introduce time aging effect of particular component to the PSA model, it has been proposed to use the constant unavailability values on the short period of time (one year for example) calculated on the basis of age-dependent reliability models. As for modeling, it appears that the problem of too detailed statistical models for application is the lack of data for required parameters. As for operating experience, several methods of operating experience analysis have been presented (algorithms for reliability data elaboration and statistical identification of aging trend). As for accelerated aging tests, it is demonstrated that a combination of operating experience analysis with the results of accelerated aging tests of naturally aged equipment could provide a good basis for continuous operation of instrumentation and control systems.

Practical applications of age-dependent reliability models and analysis of operational data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lannoy, A.; Nitoi, M.; Backstrom, O.; Burgazzi, L.; Couallier, V.; Nikulin, M.; Derode, A.; Rodionov, A.; Atwood, C.; Fradet, F.; Antonov, A.; Berezhnoy, A.; Choi, S.Y.; Starr, F.; Dawson, J.; Palmen, H.; Clerjaud, L.

2005-01-01

The purpose of the workshop was to present the experience of practical application of time-dependent reliability models. The program of the workshop comprises the following sessions: -) aging management and aging PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), -) modeling, -) operation experience, and -) accelerating aging tests. In order to introduce time aging effect of particular component to the PSA model, it has been proposed to use the constant unavailability values on the short period of time (one year for example) calculated on the basis of age-dependent reliability models. As for modeling, it appears that the problem of too detailed statistical models for application is the lack of data for required parameters. As for operating experience, several methods of operating experience analysis have been presented (algorithms for reliability data elaboration and statistical identification of aging trend). As for accelerated aging tests, it is demonstrated that a combination of operating experience analysis with the results of accelerated aging tests of naturally aged equipment could provide a good basis for continuous operation of instrumentation and control systems

Priming of microglia in a DNA-repair deficient model of accelerated aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Raj, Divya D A; Jaarsma, Dick; Holtman, Inge R; Olah, Marta; Ferreira, Filipa M; Schaafsma, Wandert; Brouwer, Nieske; Meijer, Michel M; de Waard, Monique C; van der Pluijm, Ingrid; Brandt, Renata; Kreft, Karim L; Laman, Jon D; de Haan, Gerald; Biber, Knut P H; Hoeijmakers, Jan H J; Eggen, Bart J L; Boddeke, Hendrikus W G M

2014-09-01

Aging is associated with reduced function, degenerative changes, and increased neuroinflammation of the central nervous system (CNS). Increasing evidence suggests that changes in microglia cells contribute to the age-related deterioration of the CNS. The most prominent age-related change of microglia is enhanced sensitivity to inflammatory stimuli, referred to as priming. It is unclear if priming is due to intrinsic microglia ageing or induced by the ageing neural environment. We have studied this in Ercc1 mutant mice, a DNA repair-deficient mouse model that displays features of accelerated aging in multiple tissues including the CNS. In Ercc1 mutant mice, microglia showed hallmark features of priming such as an exaggerated response to peripheral lipopolysaccharide exposure in terms of cytokine expression and phagocytosis. Specific targeting of the Ercc1 deletion to forebrain neurons resulted in a progressive priming response in microglia exemplified by phenotypic alterations. Summarizing, these data show that neuronal genotoxic stress is sufficient to switch microglia from a resting to a primed state. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling a linear PM motor including magnetic saturation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polinder, H.; Slootweg, J.G.; Compter, J.C.; Hoeijmakers, M.J.

2002-01-01

The use of linear permanent-magnet (PM) actuators increases in a wide variety of applications because of the high force density, robustness and accuracy. The paper describes the modelling of a linear PM motor applied in, for example, wafer steppers, including magnetic saturation. This is important

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

Science.gov (United States)

Sauter, Sally T.

2011-01-01

Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad (Alosa sapidissima) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur. Bioenergetics modeling is particularly useful when research questions involve multiple species and trophic levels (e.g. plankton communities). Bioenergetics models are mass-balance equations where the energy acquired from food is partitioned between maintenance costs, waste products, and growth (Winberg 1956). Specifically, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model (Hanson et al. 1997) is widely used in fisheries science. Researchers have extensively tested, reviewed, and improved on this modeling approach for over 30 years (Petersen et al. 2008). Development of a bioenergetics model for any species requires three key components: 1) determine physiological parameters for the model through laboratory experiments or incorporate data from a closely related species, 2) corroboration of the model with growth and consumption estimates from independent research, and 3) error analysis of model parameters. Wisconsin bioenergetics models have been parameterized for many of the salmonids and

Shared molecular and cellular mechanisms of premature ageing and ageing-associated diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kubben, Nard; Misteli, Tom

2017-10-01

Ageing is the predominant risk factor for many common diseases. Human premature ageing diseases are powerful model systems to identify and characterize cellular mechanisms that underpin physiological ageing. Their study also leads to a better understanding of the causes, drivers and potential therapeutic strategies of common diseases associated with ageing, including neurological disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Using the rare premature ageing disorder Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome as a paradigm, we discuss here the shared mechanisms between premature ageing and ageing-associated diseases, including defects in genetic, epigenetic and metabolic pathways; mitochondrial and protein homeostasis; cell cycle; and stem cell-regenerative capacity.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-01-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links.

The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

2016-02-01

Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Age dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Robert E.; Deshpande, Laxmikant S.; Holbert, William H.; Churn, Severn B.; DeLorenzo, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 to 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death. PMID:19429042

Age-dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus.

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Robert E; Deshpande, Laxmikant S; Holbert, William H; Churn, Severn B; DeLorenzo, Robert J

2009-04-10

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 and 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week-old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week-old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death.

The mouse as a model for understanding chronic diseases of aging: the histopathologic basis of aging in inbred mice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Harrison

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Inbred mice provide a unique tool to study aging populations because of the genetic homogeneity within an inbred strain, their short life span, and the tools for analysis which are available. A large-scale longitudinal and cross-sectional aging study was conducted on 30 inbred strains to determine, using histopathology, the type and diversity of diseases mice develop as they age. These data provide tools that when linked with modern in silico genetic mapping tools, can begin to unravel the complex genetics of many of the common chronic diseases associated with aging in humans and other mammals. In addition, novel disease models were discovered in some strains, such as rhabdomyosarcoma in old A/J mice, to diseases affecting many but not all strains including pseudoxanthoma elasticum, pulmonary adenoma, alopecia areata, and many others. This extensive data set is now available online and provides a useful tool to help better understand strain-specific background diseases that can complicate interpretation of genetically engineered mice and other manipulatable mouse studies that utilize these strains.

Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karvonen, T.

2013-11-01

Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karvonen, T. [WaterHope, Helsinki (Finland)

2013-11-15

Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasiliy N Novoseltsev

Full Text Available Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0 have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention.Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1 lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2 encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3 provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies.Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0 was most important when (1 vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0 is above or below 1, (2 vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3 the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0 ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality

Novel polyglutamine model uncouples proteotoxicity from aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Christie, Nakeirah T M; Lee, Amy L; Fay, Hannah G; Gray, Amelia A; Kikis, Elise A

2014-01-01

Polyglutamine expansions in certain proteins are the genetic determinants for nine distinct progressive neurodegenerative disorders and resultant age-related dementia. In these cases, neurodegeneration is due to the aggregation propensity and resultant toxic properties of the polyglutamine-containing proteins. We are interested in elucidating the underlying mechanisms of toxicity of the protein ataxin-3, in which a polyglutamine expansion is the genetic determinant for Machado-Joseph Disease (MJD), also referred to as spinocerebellar ataxia 3 (SCA3). To this end, we have developed a novel model for ataxin-3 protein aggregation, by expressing a disease-related polyglutamine-containing fragment of ataxin-3 in the genetically tractable body wall muscle cells of the model system C. elegans. Here, we demonstrate that this ataxin-3 fragment aggregates in a polyQ length-dependent manner in C. elegans muscle cells and that this aggregation is associated with cellular dysfunction. However, surprisingly, this aggregation and resultant toxicity was not influenced by aging. This is in contrast to polyglutamine peptides alone whose aggregation/toxicity is highly dependent on age. Thus, the data presented here not only describe a new polyglutamine model, but also suggest that protein context likely influences the cellular interactions of the polyglutamine-containing protein and thereby modulates its toxic properties.

Novel polyglutamine model uncouples proteotoxicity from aging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nakeirah T M Christie

Full Text Available Polyglutamine expansions in certain proteins are the genetic determinants for nine distinct progressive neurodegenerative disorders and resultant age-related dementia. In these cases, neurodegeneration is due to the aggregation propensity and resultant toxic properties of the polyglutamine-containing proteins. We are interested in elucidating the underlying mechanisms of toxicity of the protein ataxin-3, in which a polyglutamine expansion is the genetic determinant for Machado-Joseph Disease (MJD, also referred to as spinocerebellar ataxia 3 (SCA3. To this end, we have developed a novel model for ataxin-3 protein aggregation, by expressing a disease-related polyglutamine-containing fragment of ataxin-3 in the genetically tractable body wall muscle cells of the model system C. elegans. Here, we demonstrate that this ataxin-3 fragment aggregates in a polyQ length-dependent manner in C. elegans muscle cells and that this aggregation is associated with cellular dysfunction. However, surprisingly, this aggregation and resultant toxicity was not influenced by aging. This is in contrast to polyglutamine peptides alone whose aggregation/toxicity is highly dependent on age. Thus, the data presented here not only describe a new polyglutamine model, but also suggest that protein context likely influences the cellular interactions of the polyglutamine-containing protein and thereby modulates its toxic properties.

The use of urinary proteomics in the assessment of suitability of mouse models for ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Nkuipou-Kenfack, Esther; Schanstra, Joost P; Bajwa, Seerat; Pejchinovski, Martin; Vinel, Claire; Dray, Cédric; Valet, Philippe; Bascands, Jean-Loup; Vlahou, Antonia; Koeck, Thomas; Borries, Melanie; Busch, Hauke; Bechtel-Walz, Wibke; Huber, Tobias B; Rudolph, Karl L; Pich, Andreas; Mischak, Harald; Zürbig, Petra

2017-01-01

Ageing is a complex process characterised by a systemic and progressive deterioration of biological functions. As ageing is associated with an increased prevalence of age-related chronic disorders, understanding its underlying molecular mechanisms can pave the way for therapeutic interventions and managing complications. Animal models such as mice are commonly used in ageing research as they have a shorter lifespan in comparison to humans and are also genetically close to humans. To assess the translatability of mouse ageing to human ageing, the urinary proteome in 89 wild-type (C57BL/6) mice aged between 8-96 weeks was investigated using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS). Using age as a continuous variable, 295 peptides significantly correlated with age in mice were identified. To investigate the relevance of using mouse models in human ageing studies, a comparison was performed with a previous correlation analysis using 1227 healthy subjects. In mice and humans, a decrease in urinary excretion of fibrillar collagens and an increase of uromodulin fragments was observed with advanced age. Of the 295 peptides correlating with age, 49 had a strong homology to the respective human age-related peptides. These ortholog peptides including several collagen (N = 44) and uromodulin (N = 5) fragments were used to generate an ageing classifier that was able to discriminate the age among both wild-type mice and healthy subjects. Additionally, the ageing classifier depicted that telomerase knock-out mice were older than their chronological age. Hence, with a focus on ortholog urinary peptides mouse ageing can be translated to human ageing.

Tracer kinetics: Modelling by partial differential equations of inhomogeneous compartments with age-dependent elimination rates. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, E.

1991-01-01

The general theory of inhomogeneous compartments with age-dependent elimination rates is illustrated by examples. Mathematically, it turns out that models consisting of partial differential equations include ordinary, delayed and integro-differential equations, a general fact which is treated here in the context of linear tracer kinetics. The examples include standard compartments as a degenerate case, systems of standard compartments (compartment blocks), models resulting in special residence time distributions, models with pipes, and systems with heterogeneous particles. (orig./BBR) [de

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, N

1982-01-01

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

A living model for obesity and aging research: Caenorhabditis elegans.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Peiyi; Yue, Yiren; Park, Yeonhwa

2018-03-24

Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) is a free-living nematode that has been extensively utilized as an animal model for research involving aging and neurodegenerative diseases, like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's, etc. Compared with traditional animal models, this small nematode possesses many benefits, such as small body size, short lifespan, completely sequenced genome, and more than 65% of the genes associated with human disease. All these characteristics make this organism an ideal living system for obesity and aging studies. This review gives a brief introduction of C. elegans as an animal model, highlights some advantages of research using this model and describes methods to evaluate the effect of treatments on obesity and aging of this organism.

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

Study of a diffusion flamelet model, with preferential diffusion effects included

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Delhaye, S.; Somers, L.M.T.; Bongers, H.; Oijen, van J.A.; Goey, de L.P.H.; Dias, V.

2005-01-01

The non-premixed flamelet model of Peters [1] (model1), which does not include preferential diffusion effects is investigated. Two similar models are presented, but without the assumption of unity Lewis numbers. One of these models was derived by Peters & Pitsch [2] (model2), while the other one was

SEEPAGE MODEL FOR PA INCLUDING DRIFT COLLAPSE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. Tsang

2004-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the predictions and analyses performed using the seepage model for performance assessment (SMPA) for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal (Tptpmn) and lower lithophysal (Tptpll) lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Look-up tables of seepage flow rates into a drift (and their uncertainty) are generated by performing numerical simulations with the seepage model for many combinations of the three most important seepage-relevant parameters: the fracture permeability, the capillary-strength parameter 1/a, and the percolation flux. The percolation flux values chosen take into account flow focusing effects, which are evaluated based on a flow-focusing model. Moreover, multiple realizations of the underlying stochastic permeability field are conducted. Selected sensitivity studies are performed, including the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift from an independent drift-degradation analysis (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166107]). The intended purpose of the seepage model is to provide results of drift-scale seepage rates under a series of parameters and scenarios in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SMPA is intended for the evaluation of drift-scale seepage rates under the full range of parameter values for three parameters found to be key (fracture permeability, the van Genuchten 1/a parameter, and percolation flux) and drift degradation shape scenarios in support of the TSPA-LA during the period of compliance for postclosure performance [Technical Work Plan for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone (BSC 2002 [DIRS 160819], Section I-4-2-1)]. The flow-focusing model in the Topopah Spring welded (TSw) unit is intended to provide an estimate of flow focusing factors (FFFs) that (1) bridge the gap between the mountain-scale and drift-scale models, and (2) account for variability in local percolation flux due to

Atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO2 exchange processes: SOLVEG2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu

2004-11-01

A new atmosphere-soil-vegetation model named SOLVEG2 (SOLVEG version 2) was developed to study the heat, water, and CO 2 exchanges between the atmosphere and land-surface. The model consists of one-dimensional multilayer sub-models for the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. It also includes sophisticated processes for solar and long-wave radiation transmission in vegetation canopy and CO 2 exchanges among the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. Although the model usually simulates only vertical variation of variables in the surface-layer atmosphere, soil, and vegetation canopy by using meteorological data as top boundary conditions, it can be used by coupling with a three-dimensional atmosphere model. In this paper, details of SOLVEG2, which includes the function of coupling with atmosphere model MM5, are described. (author)

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

Science.gov (United States)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

2018-01-01

In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

Lattice Modeling of Early-Age Behavior of Structural Concrete

OpenAIRE

Pan, Yaming; Prado, Armando; Porras, Roc?o; Hafez, Omar M.; Bolander, John E.

2017-01-01

The susceptibility of structural concrete to early-age cracking depends on material composition, methods of processing, structural boundary conditions, and a variety of environmental factors. Computational modeling offers a means for identifying primary factors and strategies for reducing cracking potential. Herein, lattice models are shown to be adept at simulating the thermal-hygral-mechanical phenomena that influence early-age cracking. In particular, this paper presents a lattice-based ap...

Prevalence of dental fluorosis in children taking part in an oral health programme including fluoride tablet supplements from the age of 2 years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eckersten, Charlotte; Pylvänen, Lena; Schröder, Ulla

2010-01-01

To investigate the prevalence of dental fluorosis in children who had participated in an oral health programme between the ages 2-5 years, including fluoride tablets from the age of 2 years.......To investigate the prevalence of dental fluorosis in children who had participated in an oral health programme between the ages 2-5 years, including fluoride tablets from the age of 2 years....

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the

An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duarte M.V.E.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

Ageing of palladium tritide: mechanical characterization, helium state and modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segard, M.

2010-01-01

Palladium is commonly used for the storage of tritium (the hydrogen radioactive isotope), since it forms a low-equilibrium-pressure and reversible tritide. Tritium decay into helium-3 is responsible for the ageing of the tritide, leading to the apparition of helium-3 bubbles for instance. Both experimental and theoretical aspects of this phenomenon are studied here.Previous works on ageing modelling led to two main models, dealing with:- Helium-3 bubbles nucleation (using a cellular automaton), - Bubbles growth (using continuum mechanics).These models were quite efficient, but their use was limited by the lack of input data and fitting experimental parameters.To get through these limitations, this work has consisted in studying the most relevant experimental data to improve the modelling of the palladium tritide ageing.The first part of this work was focused on the assessment of the mechanical properties of the palladium tritide (yield strength, ultimate strength, mechanical behaviour). They were deduced from the in situ tensile tests performed on palladium hydride and deuteride. In the second part, ageing characterization was undertaken, mainly focusing on: - Bubbles observations in palladium tritide using transmission electron microscopy, - Internal bubble pressure measurements using nuclear magnetic resonance, - Macroscopic swelling measurements using pycno-metry.The present work has led to significant progress in ageing understanding and has brought very valuable improvements to the modelling of such a phenomenon. (author) [fr

Are invertebrates relevant models in ageing research?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erdogan, Cihan Suleyman; Hansen, Benni Winding; Vang, Ole

2016-01-01

is an evolutionary conserved key protein kinase in the TOR pathway that regulates growth, proliferation and cell metabolism in response to nutrients, growth factors and stress. Comparing the ageing process in invertebrate model organisms with relatively short lifespan with mammals provides valuable information about...... the molecular mechanisms underlying the ageing process faster than mammal systems. Inhibition of the TOR pathway activity via either genetic manipulation or rapamycin increases lifespan profoundly in most invertebrate model organisms. This contribution will review the recent findings in invertebrates concerning...... the TOR pathway and effects of TOR inhibition by rapamycin on lifespan. Besides some contradictory results, the majority points out that rapamycin induces longevity. This suggests that administration of rapamycin in invertebrates is a promising tool for pursuing the scientific puzzle of lifespan...

Prenatal Exposure to Organohalogens, Including Brominated Flame Retardants, Influences Motor, Cognitive, and Behavioral Performance at School Age

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roze, Elise; Meijer, Lisethe; Bakker, Attie; Van Braeckel, Koenraad N. J. A.; Sauer, Pieter J. J.; Bos, Arend F.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Organohalogen compounds (OHCs) are known to have neurotoxic effects on the developing brain. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the influence of prenatal exposure to OHCs, including brominated flame retardants, on motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcome in healthy children of school age.

Computer modelling of age hardening for cast aluminium alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Linda; Ferguson, W George

2009-01-01

Age hardening, or precipitation hardening, is one of the most widely adopted techniques for strengthening of aluminium alloys. Although various age hardening models have been developed for aluminium alloys, from the large volume of literature reviewed, it appears that the bulk of the research has been concentrated on wrought aluminium alloys, only a few of the established precipitation models have been applied to the casting aluminium alloys. In the present work, there are two modelling methods that have been developed and applied to the casting aluminium alloys A356 and A357. One is based on the Shercliff-Ashby methodology to produce a process model, by which we mean a mathematical relationship between process variables (alloy composition, ageing temperature and time) and material properties (yield strength or hardness) through microstructure evolution (precipitate radius, volume fraction). The other method is based on the Kampmann and Wagner Numerical (KWN) model which deals with concomitant nucleation, growth and coarsening and is thus capable of predicting the full evolution of the particle size distribution and then a strength model is used to evaluate the resulting change in hardness or yield strength at room temperature by taking into account contributions from lattice resistance, solid solution hardening and precipitation hardening.

Component Degradation Susceptibilities As The Bases For Modeling Reactor Aging Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

2010-01-01

The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

Can polymer thermal oxidative ageing be modelled?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Audouin, L.; Colin, X.; Fayolle, B.; Richaud, E.; Verdu, J.

2010-01-01

It has been supposed, for a long time, that kinetic modelling of polymer ageing for nonempirical lifetime prediction was out of reach for two main reasons: hyper-complexity of mechanisms and heterogeneity of reactions. The arguments relative to both aspects are examined here. It is concluded that, thanks to recent advances, especially the introduction of numerical methods, kinetic modelling is possible in various important practical cases. (authors)

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, D.

1978-01-01

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

Cognitive and behavioral evaluation of nutritional interventions in rodent models of brain aging and dementia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wahl D

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Devin Wahl,1,2 Sean CP Coogan,1,3 Samantha M Solon-Biet,1,2 Rafael de Cabo,4 James B Haran,5 David Raubenheimer,1,6,7 Victoria C Cogger,1,2 Mark P Mattson,8 Stephen J Simpson,1,2,7 David G Le Couteur1,2 1Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, 2Aging and Alzheimers Institute, ANZAC Research Institute, Concord Clinical School/Sydney Medical School, Concord, NSW, Australia; 3Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; 4Translational Gerontology Branch, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; 5Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 6Faculty of Veterinary Science, 7School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 8Laboratory of Neurosciences, National Institute on Aging’s Intramural Research Program, National Institutes of Health, Baltimore, MD, USA Abstract: Evaluation of behavior and cognition in rodent models underpins mechanistic and interventional studies of brain aging and neurodegenerative diseases, especially ­dementia. Commonly used tests include Morris water maze, Barnes maze, object recognition, fear ­conditioning, radial arm water maze, and Y maze. Each of these tests reflects some aspects of human memory including episodic memory, recognition memory, semantic memory, spatial memory, and emotional memory. Although most interventional studies in rodent models of dementia have focused on pharmacological agents, there are an increasing number of studies that have evaluated nutritional interventions including caloric restriction, intermittent fasting, and manipulation of macronutrients. Dietary interventions have been shown to influence ­various cognitive and behavioral tests in rodents indicating that nutrition can influence brain aging and possibly neurodegeneration. Keywords: calorie restriction, intermittent fasting, aging, memory, macronutrients

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling of left ventricular dimensional changes in mice during aging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Tianyi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Cardiac aging is characterized by diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LV, which is due in part to increased LV wall stiffness. In the diastolic phase, myocytes are relaxed and extracellular matrix (ECM is a critical determinant to the changes of LV wall stiffness. To evaluate the effects of ECM composition on cardiac aging, we developed a mathematical model to predict LV dimension and wall stiffness changes in aging mice by integrating mechanical laws and our experimental results. We measured LV dimension, wall thickness, LV mass, and collagen content for wild type (WT C57/BL6J mice of ages ranging from 7.3 months to those of 34.0 months. The model was established using the thick wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to an isotropic and homogeneous elastic composite with mixed constituents. The initial conditions of the simulation were set based on the data from the young mice. Matlab simulations of this mathematical model demonstrated that the model captured the major features of LV remodeling with age and closely approximated experimental results. Specifically, the temporal progression of the LV interior and exterior dimensions demonstrated the same trend and order-of-magnitude change as our experimental results. In conclusion, we present here a validated mathematical model of cardiac aging that applies the thick-wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to LV remodeling with age.

Aging, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction in different model organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

2013-08-01

Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions.

Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

2015-05-15

The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

Statistical models for thermal ageing of steel materials in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persoz, M.

1996-01-01

Some category of steel materials in nuclear power plants may be subjected to thermal ageing, whose extent depends on the steel chemical composition and the ageing parameters, i.e. temperature and duration. This ageing affects the 'impact strength' of the materials, which is a mechanical property. In order to assess the residual lifetime of these components, a probabilistic study has been launched, which takes into account the scatter over the input parameters of the mechanical model. Predictive formulae for estimating the impact strength of aged materials are important input data of the model. A data base has been created with impact strength results obtained from an ageing program in laboratory and statistical treatments have been undertaken. Two kinds of model have been developed, with non linear regression methods (PROC NLIN, available in SAS/STAT). The first one, using a hyperbolic tangent function, is partly based on physical considerations, and the second one, of an exponential type, is purely statistically built. The difficulties consist in selecting the significant parameters and attributing initial values to the coefficients, which is a requirement of the NLIN procedure. This global statistical analysis has led to general models that are unction of the chemical variables and the ageing parameters. These models are as precise (if not more) as local models that had been developed earlier for some specific values of ageing temperature and ageing duration. This paper describes the data and the methodology used to build the models and analyses the results given by the SAS system. (author)

Fragile DNA Repair Mechanism Reduces Ageing in Multicellular Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendtsen, Kristian Moss; Juul, Jeppe Søgaard; Trusina, Ala

2012-01-01

increases the amount of unrepaired DNA damage. Despite this vicious circle, we ask, can cells maintain a high DNA repair capacity for some time or is repair capacity bound to continuously decline with age? We here present a simple mathematical model for ageing in multicellular systems where cells subjected...... to DNA damage can undergo full repair, go apoptotic, or accumulate mutations thus reducing DNA repair capacity. Our model predicts that at the tissue level repair rate does not continuously decline with age, but instead has a characteristic extended period of high and non-declining DNA repair capacity......DNA damages, as well as mutations, increase with age. It is believed that these result from increased genotoxic stress and decreased capacity for DNA repair. The two causes are not independent, DNA damage can, for example, through mutations, compromise the capacity for DNA repair, which in turn...

Age dependencies in the modelling of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellerer, A.M.; GSF, Neuherberg; Barclay, D.

1992-01-01

Models for the dose and age dependence of radiation induced cancer have been based primarily on the follow-up of the atomic bomb survivors. Two different concepts have been deduced for leukaemias and for other cancers. The excess leukaemias appear in a distinct temporal wave with a maximum 5 to 10 years after radiation exposure; the distribution is more narrow for younger ages, but there is little dependence of the total attributable risk on age at exposure. For other cancers the latent periods are longer and, according to the current interpretation, the excess rates are then proportional to the age specific spontaneous rates, so that most excess cases would arise at old age. The factors of proportionality, and thus the attributable risks, are assumed to be markedly higher for young ages at exposure. It is argued here, that there is no firm support for this interpretation. (author)

Investigating immune system aging: system dynamics and agent-based modeling

OpenAIRE

Figueredo, Grazziela; Aickelin, Uwe

2010-01-01

System dynamics and agent based simulation models can\\ud both be used to model and understand interactions of entities within a population. Our modeling work presented here is concerned with understanding the suitability of the different types of simulation for the immune system aging problems and comparing their results. We are trying to answer questions such as: How fit is the immune system given a certain age? Would an immune boost be of therapeutic value, e.g. to improve the effectiveness...

Delineating the third age: joint models of older people's quality of life and attrition in Britain 2002-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Tampubolon, Gindo

2015-07-01

In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these trajectories by jointly modelling attrition, since older people tend to leave longitudinal studies (attrite) not at random. Growth curve models are applied to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 1 to 5. Then joint model is estimated where attrition is considered. Extensive predictors are entered including demographic attributes, social and economic status, health conditions, and behaviours. Strong non-linear age trajectory of life quality is revealed by the growth curve models where the peak is achieved in the late 60s. Then the joint model uncovers the peak somewhat later in time, and also reveals secular improvement in life quality experienced by recent cohorts. Sharp estimates for many predictors of higher levels of life quality are also found. For the first time, the trajectories of life quality in the third age are drawn and improvement across cohorts is demonstrated. The contributions are estimated for predictors amenable to intervention such as social capital. This can help in policy discussion on improving the lives of older people in the third age.

Quantification the Effect of Ageing on Characteristics of the Photoplethysmogram Using an Optimized Windkessel Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doostdar H.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Background: With increasing age, some changes appeared in specifications of vessels which including dimensions and elasticity in theirs. The changes in parameters such as resistance, inertance and compliance vessels appear and eventually changes in the environmental pulse releases are in circulation. These changes clearly appear in specification of photoplethysmogram particularly in the size and position signals second peak is observed. Aim and scope: The aim of study was to Circulatory system modeling using windkessel electrical model for evalution blood flow and Its matching with the photoplethysmogram’s signal for investigate the reasons for changes of Characteristics of the Photoplethysmogram. The first purpose of this paper is to examine the age-related parameters in the Photoplethysmogram’s signal and finally the diagnosis of cardiovascular disease using the model and photoplethysmogram’s signal. Methods: In this study we followed some of these effects to the circulatory system by using the windkessel electrical model. The algorithm in this project appeared by optimization with the matrix coefficients of state space windkessel electrical model. Optimize of the coefficients matching with the output of the model and the photoplethysmogram’s signal. Photoplethysmogram’s signals from 50 healthy subjects with the age range of 20 to 50 years, shows that outputs the model and photoplethysmogram’s signal in terms of error rate and cross-correlation algorithm in a fully automate, was consistent. Wavelength of the Photoplethysmogram’s signals were 950 nm and The sampling rate was set at 50 Hz. Results: Simulation results show that aging reduces the signal amplitude and delay of the second peak occurs. These changes were seen as reduce the rate of compliance and increase the rate of resistance and inertance windkessel electrical model of circulation. Conclusion: The high accuracy of the results led to being able to identify the age

Model-Based Exploration of Societal Aging in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Logtens, T.W.A.

2015-01-01

Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care, social security, and the economy of many nations. A System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here to generate exploratory scenarios

A structural model of age, grey matter volumes, education, and personality traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitamura, Soichiro; Yasuno, Fumihiko; Yamamoto, Akihide; Kazui, Hiroaki; Kudo, Takashi; Matsuoka, Kiwamu; Kiuchi, Kuniaki; Kosaka, Jun; Nagatsuka, Kazuyuki; Iida, Hidehiro; Kishimoto, Toshifumi

2016-01-01

When the relationship between ageing and changes in personality traits is considered, it is important to know how they are influenced by biological and environmental factors. The present study examined the relationships between various factors associated with the effect of ageing on personality traits, including structural changes of the brain and environmental factors such as education. We recruited 41 healthy subjects. We administered the NEO Five-Factor Inventory to assess personality factors. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed, and regional grey matter (GM) volumes were obtained. We identified associations in the correlation analysis of age, cerebral GM volume, years of education, and the personality trait of openness. Path analysis was used to estimate the relationships among these factors. The path analysis model of age, GM volume, years of education, and the personality trait of openness revealed that age has an indirect negative association with openness through GM volume and years of education. Ageing was related to a decrease in GM volume, which was in turn related to a decrease in the openness score. Older subjects generally had fewer years of education, which was related to a lower openness score. Maintaining openness against the effects of ageing is desirable, and our results imply that interventions against age-related cerebral atrophy and the promotion of opportunities for higher education may contribute to the development and stability of a healthy personality during the adult life course. © 2015 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2015 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

RELAP5-3D Code Includes ATHENA Features and Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riemke, Richard A.; Davis, Cliff B.; Schultz, Richard R.

2006-01-01

Version 2.3 of the RELAP5-3D computer program includes all features and models previously available only in the ATHENA version of the code. These include the addition of new working fluids (i.e., ammonia, blood, carbon dioxide, glycerol, helium, hydrogen, lead-bismuth, lithium, lithium-lead, nitrogen, potassium, sodium, and sodium-potassium) and a magnetohydrodynamic model that expands the capability of the code to model many more thermal-hydraulic systems. In addition to the new working fluids along with the standard working fluid water, one or more noncondensable gases (e.g., air, argon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, helium, hydrogen, krypton, nitrogen, oxygen, SF 6 , xenon) can be specified as part of the vapor/gas phase of the working fluid. These noncondensable gases were in previous versions of RELAP5-3D. Recently four molten salts have been added as working fluids to RELAP5-3D Version 2.4, which has had limited release. These molten salts will be in RELAP5-3D Version 2.5, which will have a general release like RELAP5-3D Version 2.3. Applications that use these new features and models are discussed in this paper. (authors)

Why is the dog an ideal model for aging research?

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmore, Keiva M; Greer, Kimberly A

2015-11-01

With many caveats to the traditional vertebrate species pertaining to biogerontology investigations, it has been suggested that a most informative model is the one which: 1) examines closely related species, or various members of the same species with naturally occurring lifespan variation, 2) already has adequate medical procedures developed, 3) has a well annotated genome, 4) does not require artificial housing, and can live in its natural environment while being investigated, and 5) allows considerable information to be gathered within a relatively short period of time. The domestic dog unsurprisingly fits each criterion mentioned. The dog has already become a key model system in which to evaluate surgical techniques and novel medications because of the remarkable similarity between human and canine conditions, treatments, and response to therapy. The dog naturally serves as a disease model for study, obviating the need to construct artificial genetically modified examples of disease. Just as the dog offers a natural model for human conditions and diseases, simple observation leads to the conclusion that the canine aging phenotype also mimics that of the human. Genotype information, biochemical information pertaining to the GH/IGF-1 pathway, and some limited longitudinal investigations have begun the establishment of the domestic dog as a model of aging. Although we find that dogs indeed are a model to study aging and there are many independent pieces of canine aging data, there are many more "open" areas, ripe for investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Aged induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSCs) as a new cellular model for studying premature aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrini, Stefania; Borghi, Rossella; D'Oria, Valentina; Restaldi, Fabrizia; Moreno, Sandra; Novelli, Antonio; Bertini, Enrico; Compagnucci, Claudia

2017-05-31

Nuclear integrity and mechanical stability of the nuclear envelope (NE) are conferred by the nuclear lamina, a meshwork of intermediate filaments composed of A- and B-type lamins, supporting the inner nuclear membrane and playing a pivotal role in chromatin organization and epigenetic regulation. During cell senescence, nuclear alterations also involving NE architecture are widely described. In the present study, we utilized induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) upon prolonged in vitro culture as a model to study aging and investigated the organization and expression pattern of NE major constituents. Confocal and four-dimensional imaging combined with molecular analyses, showed that aged iPSCs are characterized by nuclear dysmorphisms, nucleoskeletal components (lamin A/C-prelamin isoforms, lamin B1, emerin, and nesprin-2) imbalance, leading to impaired nucleo-cytoplasmic MKL1 shuttling, actin polymerization defects, mitochondrial dysfunctions, SIRT7 downregulation and NF-kBp65 hyperactivation. The observed age-related NE features of iPSCs closely resemble those reported for premature aging syndromes (e.g., Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome) and for somatic cell senescence. These findings validate the use of aged iPSCs as a suitable cellular model to study senescence and for investigating therapeutic strategies aimed to treat premature aging.

A low cycle fatigue model for low carbon manganese steel including the effect of dynamic strain aging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Zhi Yong, E-mail: huangzy@scu.edu.cn [Sichuan University, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, No.29 Jiuyanqiao Wangjiang Road, Chengdu 610064 (China); Wagner, Danièle [Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense (France); Wang, Qing Yuan; Khan, Muhammad Kashif [Sichuan University, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, No.29 Jiuyanqiao Wangjiang Road, Chengdu 610064 (China); Chaboche, Jean–Louis [ONERA, DMSM, 29 avenue de la Division Lecerc, F-92320, Chatillon (France)

2016-01-27

Carbon–manganese steel A48 (French standards) is used in steam generator pipes of the nuclear power plant where it is subjected to the cyclic thermal load. The Dynamic Strain Aging (DSA) influences the mechanical behavior of the steel in low cycle fatigue (LCF) at favorable temperature and strain rate. The peak stress of A48 steel experiences hardening–softening–hardening (HSH) evolution at 200 °C and 0.4% s{sup −1} strain rate in fatigue loading. In this study, isotropic and kinematic hardening rules with DSA effect have been modified. The HSH evolution of cyclic stress associated with cumulative plastic deformation has also been estimated.

Keep Up the Good Work! Age-Moderated Mediation Model on Intention to Retire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paola Dordoni

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In European nations, the aging of the workforce is a major issue which is increasingly addressed both in national and organizational policies in order to sustain older workers' employability and to encourage longer working lives. Particularly older workers' employability can be viewed an important issue as this has the potential to motivate them for their work and change their intention to retire. Based on lifespan development theories and Van der Heijden's ‘employability enhancement model’, this paper develops and tests an age-moderated mediation model (which refers to the processes that we want to test in this model, linking older workers' (55 years old and over perceptions of job support for learning (job-related factor and perceptions of negative age stereotypes on productivity (organizational factor, on the one hand, and their intention to retire, on the other hand, via their participation in employability enhancing activities, being the mediator in our model. A total of 2,082 workers aged 55 years and above were included in the analyses. Results revealed that the two proposed relationships between the predictors and intention to retire were mediated by participation in employability enhancing activities, reflecting two mechanisms through which work context affects intention to retire (namely ‘a gain spiral and a loss spiral’. Multi-Group SEM analyses, distinguishing between two age groups (55–60 and 61–65 years old, revealed different paths for the two distinguished groups of older workers. Employability mediated the relationship between perceptions of job support for learning and intention to retire in both age groups, whereas it only mediated the relationship between perceptions of negative age stereotypes and intention to retire in the 55–60 group. From our empirical study, we may conclude that employability is an important factor in the light of older workers' intention to retire. In order to motivate this category of

Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mellem

Full Text Available Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

Science.gov (United States)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

2018-03-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Ming Lai

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96 indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population.

Review of equipment aging theory and technology. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carfagno, S.P.; Gibson, R.J.

1980-09-01

The theory and technology of equipment aging is reviewed, particularly as they relate to the qualification of safety-system equipment for nuclear power generating stations. A fundamental degradation model is developed, and its relation to more restricted models (e.g., Arrhenius and inverse-stress models) is shown. The most common theoretical and empirical models of aging are introduced, and limitations on their practical application are analyzed. Reliability theory and its application to the acceleration of aging are also discussed. A compendium of aging data for materials and components, including degradation mechanisms, failure modes and activation energies, is included.

Review of equipment aging theory and technology. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carfagno, S.P.; Gibson, R.J.

1980-09-01

The theory and technology of equipment aging is reviewed, particularly as they relate to the qualification of safety-system equipment for nuclear power generating stations. A fundamental degradation model is developed, and its relation to more restricted models (e.g., Arrhenius and inverse-stress models) is shown. The most common theoretical and empirical models of aging are introduced, and limitations on their practical application are analyzed. Reliability theory and its application to the acceleration of aging are also discussed. A compendium of aging data for materials and components, including degradation mechanisms, failure modes and activation energies, is included

Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

2014-07-01

Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R01. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

Brain age and other bodily 'ages': implications for neuropsychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, James H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Deary, Ian J

2018-06-11

As our brains age, we tend to experience cognitive decline and are at greater risk of neurodegenerative disease and dementia. Symptoms of chronic neuropsychiatric diseases are also exacerbated during ageing. However, the ageing process does not affect people uniformly; nor, in fact, does the ageing process appear to be uniform even within an individual. Here, we outline recent neuroimaging research into brain ageing and the use of other bodily ageing biomarkers, including telomere length, the epigenetic clock, and grip strength. Some of these techniques, using statistical approaches, have the ability to predict chronological age in healthy people. Moreover, they are now being applied to neurological and psychiatric disease groups to provide insights into how these diseases interact with the ageing process and to deliver individualised predictions about future brain and body health. We discuss the importance of integrating different types of biological measurements, from both the brain and the rest of the body, to build more comprehensive models of the biological ageing process. Finally, we propose seven steps for the field of brain-ageing research to take in coming years. This will help us reach the long-term goal of developing clinically applicable statistical models of biological processes to measure, track and predict brain and body health in ageing and disease.

Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

2016-04-01

The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

Collisional-radiative model including recombination processes for W27+ ion★

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Izumi; Sasaki, Akira; Kato, Daiji; Koike, Fumihiro

2017-10-01

We have constructed a collisional-radiative (CR) model for W27+ ions including 226 configurations with n ≤ 9 and ł ≤ 5 for spectroscopic diagnostics. We newly include recombination processes in the model and this is the first result of extreme ultraviolet spectrum calculated for recombining plasma component. Calculated spectra in 40-70 Å range in ionizing and recombining plasma components show similar 3 strong lines and 1 line weak in recombining plasma component at 45-50 Å and many weak lines at 50-65 Å for both components. Recombination processes do not contribute much to the spectrum at around 60 Å for W27+ ion. Dielectronic satellite lines are also minor contribution to the spectrum of recombining plasma component. Dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficient from W28+ to W27+ ions is also calculated with the same atomic data in the CR model. We found that larger set of energy levels including many autoionizing states gave larger DR rate coefficients but our rate agree within factor 6 with other works at electron temperature around 1 keV in which W27+ and W28+ ions are usually observed in plasmas. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Atomic and Molecular Data and their Applications", edited by Gordon W.F. Drake, Jung-Sik Yoon, Daiji Kato, and Grzegorz Karwasz.

[Induced thymus aging: radiation model and application perspective for low intensive laser radiation].

Science.gov (United States)

Sevost'ianova, N N; Trofimov, A V; Lin'kova, N S; Poliakova, V O; Kvetnoĭ, I M

2010-01-01

The influence of gamma-radiation on morphofunctional state of thymus is rather like as natural thymus aging. However gamma-radiation model of thymus aging widely used to investigate geroprotectors has many shortcomings and limitations. Gamma-radiation can induce irreversible changes in thymus very often. These changes are more intensive in comparison with changes, which can be observed at natural thymus aging. Low intensive laser radiation can not destroy structure of thymus and its effects are rather like as natural thymus aging in comparison with gamma-radiation effects. There are many parameters of low intensive laser radiation, which can be changed to improve morphofunctional thymus characteristics in aging model. Using low intensive laser radiation in thymus aging model can be very perspective for investigations of aging immune system.

Drug repurposing for aging research using model organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziehm, Matthias; Kaur, Satwant; Ivanov, Dobril K; Ballester, Pedro J; Marcus, David; Partridge, Linda; Thornton, Janet M

2017-10-01

Many increasingly prevalent diseases share a common risk factor: age. However, little is known about pharmaceutical interventions against aging, despite many genes and pathways shown to be important in the aging process and numerous studies demonstrating that genetic interventions can lead to a healthier aging phenotype. An important challenge is to assess the potential to repurpose existing drugs for initial testing on model organisms, where such experiments are possible. To this end, we present a new approach to rank drug-like compounds with known mammalian targets according to their likelihood to modulate aging in the invertebrates Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila. Our approach combines information on genetic effects on aging, orthology relationships and sequence conservation, 3D protein structures, drug binding and bioavailability. Overall, we rank 743 different drug-like compounds for their likelihood to modulate aging. We provide various lines of evidence for the successful enrichment of our ranking for compounds modulating aging, despite sparse public data suitable for validation. The top ranked compounds are thus prime candidates for in vivo testing of their effects on lifespan in C. elegans or Drosophila. As such, these compounds are promising as research tools and ultimately a step towards identifying drugs for a healthier human aging. © 2017 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Centenarians - a useful model for healthy aging?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engberg, Henriette; Oksuzyan, Anna; Jeune, Bernard

2009-01-01

Centenarians surpass the current human life expectancy with about 20-25 years. However, whether centenarians represent healthy aging still remains an open question. Previous studies have been hampered by a number of methodological shortcomings such as a cross-sectional design and lack...... of an appropriate control group. In a longitudinal population-based cohort, it was examined whether the centenarian phenotype may be a useful model for healthy aging. The study was based on a completefollow up of 39 945 individuals alive in the Danish 1905 birth cohort on January 1, 1977 identified through...... with 68.4% among individuals who died in their early 80s. This trend was evident in both sexes. As a result of their lower hospitalization rates and length of stay in hospital compared with their contemporaries, who died at younger ages, Danish centenarians represent healthy agers. Centenarians constitute...

Systematic aging of commercial LiFePO4|Graphite cylindrical cells including a theory explaining rise of capacity during aging

Science.gov (United States)

Lewerenz, Meinert; Münnix, Jens; Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Knips, Marcus; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2017-03-01

The contribution introduces a new theory explaining the capacity increase that is often observed in early stages of life of lithium-ion batteries. This reversible and SOC-depending capacity rise is explained by the passive electrode effect in this work. The theory assumes a slow, compensating flow of active lithium between the passive and the active part of the anode, where the passive part represents the geometric excess anode with respect to the cathode. The theory is validated using a systematic test of 50 cylindrical 8 Ah LiFePO4|Graphite battery cells analyzed during cyclic and calendaric aging. The cyclic aging has been performed symmetrically at 40 °C cell temperature, varying current rates and DODs. The calendar aging is executed at three temperatures and up to four SOCs. The aging is dominated by capacity fade while the increase of internal resistance is hardly influenced. Surprisingly shallow cycling between 45 and 55% SOC shows stronger aging than aging at higher DOD and tests at 4 C exhibit less aging than aging at lower C-rates. Aging mechanisms at 60 °C seem to deviate from those at 40 °C or lower. The data of this aging matrix is used for further destructive and non-destructive characterization in future contributions.

HUMTRN: documentation and verification for an ICRP-based age- and sex-specific human simulation model for radionuclide dose assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallegos, A.F.; Wenzel, W.J.

1984-06-01

The dynamic human simulation model HUMTRN is designed specifically as a major module of BIOTRAN to integrate climatic, hydrologic, atmospheric, food crop, and herbivore simulation with human dietary and physiological characteristics, and metabolism and radionuclides to predict radiation doses to selected organs of both sexes in different age groups. The model is based on age- and weight-specific equations developed for predicting human radionuclide transport from metabolic and physical characteristics. These characteristics are modeled from studies documented by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP 23). HUMTRN allows cumulative doses from uranium or plutonium radionuclides to be predicted by modeling age-specific anatomical, physiological, and metabolic properties of individuals between 1 and 70 years of age and can track radiation exposure and radionuclide metabolism for any age group for specified daily or yearly time periods. The simulated daily dose integration of eight or more simultaneous air, water, and food intakes gives a new, comprehensive, dynamic picture of radionuclide intake, uptake, and hazard analysis for complex scenarios. A detailed example using site-specific data based on the Pantex studies is included for verification. 14 references, 24 figures, 10 tables

Integrated Age-based Krill Model Fish Res 2015

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An integrated, age-structured model was fitted to different combinations of survey data using two forms of selectivity (logistic or double-logistic) with...

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhikhari P. Tharu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

Age replacement models: A summary with new perspectives and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Xufeng; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa N.; Magid Hamouda, Abdel; Nakagawa, Toshio

2017-01-01

Age replacement models are fundamental to maintenance theory. This paper summarizes our new perspectives and hods in age replacement models: First, we optimize the expected cost rate for a required availability level and vice versa. Second, an asymptotic model with simple calculation is proposed by using the cumulative hazard function skillfully. Third, we challenge the established theory such that preventive replacement should be non-random and only corrective replacement should be made for the unit with exponential failure. Fourth, three replacement policies with random working cycles are discussed, which are called overtime replacement, replacement first, and replacement last, respectively. Fifth, the policies of replacement first and last are formulated with general models. Sixth, age replacement is modified for the situation when the economical life cycle of the unit is a random variable with probability distribution. Finally, models of a parallel system with constant and random number of units are taken into considerations. The models of expected cost rates are obtained and optimal replacement times to minimize them are discussed analytically and computed numerically. Further studies and potential applications are also indicated at the end of discussions of the above models. - Highlights: • Optimization of cost rate for availability level is discussed and vice versa. • Asymptotic and random replacement models are discussed. • Overtime replacement, replacement first and replacement last are surveyed. • Replacement policy with random life cycle is given. • A parallel system with random number of units is modeled.

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Feinstein, Daniel T.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Haserodt, Megan J.; Clark, Brian R.; Juckem, Paul F.

2018-06-22

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if

Robinson's Computerized Strabismus Model Comes of Age

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.J. Simonsz (Huib); H. Spekreijse (Henk)

1996-01-01

textabstractIn this article we review our further development of D.A. Robinson's computerized strabismus model. First, an extensive literature study has been carried out to get more accurate data on the anatomy of the average eye and the eye muscles, and about how these vary with age and with

Model for the age-dependent skeletal retention of plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.

1984-01-01

A mathematical model of the metabolic and physiologic processes involved in the retention and translocation of plutonium in the body. The implications of the model concerning the dose as a function of age to radiosensitive tissues of the skeleton are examined. 16 references, 1 figure

An aging elasto-viscoplastic model for ceramics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soulacroix, Julian; Michel, Bruno; Gatt, Jean-Marie; Kubler, Regis; Barrallier, Laurent

2014-01-01

A model reproducing strain softening behavior in ceramic materials is proposed. This model is base on a critical treatment of previous mechanical experimental results, mainly on uranium dioxide. The main hypothesis is that the strain softening phenomenon is related to an aging process, where some point defects move towards the dislocations and modify their velocity. This is different from most of models used up to now, as they were based on the hypothesis that only the initial lack of dislocations was responsible of the strain softening behavior. A model is first developed in a simple 1D framework. Evolution of the mechanical behavior with strain rate and temperature is well reproduced by this model. Then, the 1D model is extended to a 3D mechanical model, and mechanical compressive tests on UO 2 pellets are simulated. The 3D model well reproduces the observed asymmetrical shape of the compressed pellet if one considers that the material is not initially perfectly homogeneous, which highlights the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity of materials in models. (authors)

Some considerations in applying stock-recruitment models to multiple-age spawning populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawler, P.J.

1988-01-01

Several approaches used during the Hudson River power plant hearings (1977-1980) to permit quantitative estimation of the impact of power plant operation on the river's striped bass population are presented. The Ricker stock-recruitment model was adopted as a starting point to provide a reasonable working conceptualization of the stock-recruitment processes operating in this river. This model was then modified in a variety of ways to reflect multiple-age spawning by striped bass, and the results were fit to data on the river's commercial striped bass catch and effort, organized to reflect certain average age distribution parameters. Environmental variation in the system, represented in an overall fashion by the spring and summer variation in the river's freshwater flow, and the effect of certain assumed modes of cannibalism were also included in these analyses. Quantitative estimates of the Ricker parameters alpha and beta representing compensatory reserve and density dependent mortality, respectively, in the system were extracted from these fits. In addition, an approach to modeling the influence of certain density-dependent and density-independent growth factors on the various modes of mortality is presented. All of the above procedures are directed toward estimating the change a given impact may induce on the stock-recruitment model parameters alpha and beta. These changes in alpha and beta are used in various equilibrium reduction models to estimate the percentage change in the equilibrium spawning population that, all other things remaining equal, can be expected in the presence of the impact under study. 15 refs., 3 tabs

Degradations analysis and aging modeling for health assessment and prognostics of PEMFC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2016-01-01

Applying prognostics to Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stacks is a good solution to help taking actions extending their lifetime. However, it requires a great understanding of the degradation mechanisms and failures occurring within the stack. This task is not simple when applied to a PEMFC due to the different levels (stack - cells - components), the different scales and the multiple causes that lead to degradation. To overcome this problem, this work proposes a methodology dedicated to the setting of a framework and a modeling of the aging for prognostics. This methodology is based on a deep literature review and degradation analyses of PEMFC stacks. This analysis allows defining a proper vocabulary dedicated to PEMFC's prognostics and health management and a clear limited framework to perform prognostics. Then the degradations review is used to select critical components within the stack, and to define their critical failure mechanisms thanks the proposal of new fault trees. The impact of these critical components and mechanisms on the power loss during aging is included to the model for prognostics. This model is finally validated on four datasets with different mission profiles both for health assessment and prognostics. - Highlights: • A proper framework to perform PHM, particularly prognostics, of PEMFC is proposed. • A degradation analysis is performed. • A completely new model of PEMFC degradation is proposed. • SOH estimation is performed with very high coefficients of determination.

Early-age behaviour of concrete in massive structures, experimentation and modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zreiki, J.; Bouchelaghem, F.; Chaouche, M.

2010-01-01

This study is focused on the behaviour of concrete at early-age in massive structures, in relation with the prediction of both cracking risk and residual stresses, which is still a challenging task. In this paper, a 3D thermo-chemo-mechanical model has been developed, on the basis of complete material characterization experiments, in order to predict the early-age development of strains and residual stresses, and in order to assess the risk of cracking in massive concrete structures. The parameters of the proposed model were identified on two different concretes, High Performance Concrete and Fibrous Self-Compacted Concrete - from simple experiments in the laboratory: uniaxial tension and compression tests, dynamic Young's modulus measurements, free and autogenous shrinkages, semi-adiabatic calorimetry. The proposed model has been implemented in a Finite Element code, and the numerical simulations of the laboratory tests have proved the model consistency. Furthermore, early-age experiments conducted on massive structures have also been simulated, in order to investigate the predictive capability of the model, and to assess the model performance in practical situations where varying temperatures are involved.

Modeling of an Aged Porous Silicon Humidity Sensor Using ANN Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tarikul ISLAM

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Porous silicon (PS sensor based on capacitive technique used for measuring relative humidity has the advantages of low cost, ease of fabrication with controlled structure and CMOS compatibility. But the response of the sensor is nonlinear function of humidity and suffers from errors due to aging and stability. One adaptive linear (ADALINE ANN model has been developed to model the behavior of the sensor with a view to estimate these errors and compensate them. The response of the sensor is represented by third order polynomial basis function whose coefficients are determined by the ANN technique. The drift in sensor output due to aging of PS layer is also modeled by adapting the weights of the polynomial function. ANN based modeling is found to be more suitable than conventional physical modeling of PS humidity sensor in changing environment and drift due to aging. It helps online estimation of nonlinearity as well as monitoring of the fault of the PS humidity sensor using the coefficients of the model.

Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models.

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchet, D

1988-01-01

Economists often over estimate capital dilution effects when applying neoclassical growth models which use age structured population and depreciation of capital stock. This occurs because capital stock is improperly characterized. A standard model which assumes a constant depreciation of capital intimates that a population growth rate equal to a negative constant savings ratio is preferable to any higher growth rate. Growth rates which are lower than a negative constant savings ratio suggest an ever growing capital/labor ratio and an ever growing standard of living, even if people do not save. This is suggested because the natural reduction of the capital stock through depreciation is slower than the population decrease which is simply unrealistic. This model overlooks the fact that low or negative growth rates result in an ageing of the capital stock, and this ageing subsequently results in an increase of the overall rate of capital depreciation. In that overly simplistic model, depreciation was assumed independent of the age of the captial stock. Incorporating depreciation as a variable into a model allows a more symmetric treatment of capital. Using models with heterogenous capital, this article explores what occurs when more than 1 kind of capital good is involved in production and when these various captial goods have different lengths of life. Applying economic models, it also examines what occurs when the length of life of capital may vary. These variations correct the negative impact that population growth can have on per capital production and consumption.

Extending Primitive Spatial Data Models to Include Semantics

Science.gov (United States)

Reitsma, F.; Batcheller, J.

2009-04-01

Our traditional geospatial data model involves associating some measurable quality, such as temperature, or observable feature, such as a tree, with a point or region in space and time. When capturing data we implicitly subscribe to some kind of conceptualisation. If we can make this explicit in an ontology and associate it with the captured data, we can leverage formal semantics to reason with the concepts represented in our spatial data sets. To do so, we extend our fundamental representation of geospatial data in a data model by including a URI in our basic data model that links it to our ontology defining our conceptualisation, We thus extend Goodchild et al's geo-atom [1] with the addition of a URI: (x, Z, z(x), URI) . This provides us with pixel or feature level knowledge and the ability to create layers of data from a set of pixels or features that might be drawn from a database based on their semantics. Using open source tools, we present a prototype that involves simple reasoning as a proof of concept. References [1] M.F. Goodchild, M. Yuan, and T.J. Cova. Towards a general theory of geographic representation in gis. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(3):239-260, 2007.

Complex Behavior in a Selective Aging Neuron Model Based on Small World Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Guiqing; Chen Tianlun

2008-01-01

Complex behavior in a selective aging simple neuron model based on small world networks is investigated. The basic elements of the model are endowed with the main features of a neuron function. The structure of the selective aging neuron model is discussed. We also give some properties of the new network and find that the neuron model displays a power-law behavior. If the brain network is small world-like network, the mean avalanche size is almost the same unless the aging parameter is big enough.

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of plasma thiol redox potential in a common marmoset model of aging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R. Roede

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Due to its short lifespan, ease of use and age-related pathologies that mirror those observed in humans, the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus is poised to become a standard nonhuman primate model of aging. Blood and extracellular fluid possess two major thiol-dependent redox nodes involving cysteine (Cys, cystine (CySS, glutathione (GSH and glutathione disulfide (GSSG. Alteration in these plasma redox nodes significantly affects cellular physiology, and oxidation of the plasma Cys/CySS redox potential (EhCySS is associated with aging and disease risk in humans. The purpose of this study was to determine age-related changes in plasma redox metabolites and corresponding redox potentials (Eh to further validate the marmoset as a nonhuman primate model of aging. We measured plasma thiol redox states in marmosets and used existing human data with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS to model the relationships between age and redox metabolites. A classification accuracy of 70.2% and an AUC of 0.703 were achieved using the MARS model built from the marmoset redox data to classify the human samples as young or old. These results show that common marmosets provide a useful model for thiol redox biology of aging.

Decision support for life extension of technical systems through virtual age modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez Ramírez, Pedro A.; Utne, Ingrid Bouwer

2013-01-01

This article presents a virtual age model for decision support regarding life extension of ageing repairable systems. The aim of the model is to evaluate different life extension decision alternatives and their impact on the future performance of the system. The model can be applied to systems operated continuously (e.g., process systems) and systems operated on demand (e.g., safety systems). Deterioration and efficiency of imperfect maintenance is assessed when there is limited or no degradation data, and only failure and maintenance data is available. Systems that are in operation can be studied, meaning that the systems may be degraded. The current degradation is represented by a “current virtual age”, which is calculated from recorded maintenance data. The model parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood method. A case study illustrates the application of the model for life extension of two fire water pumps in an oil and gas facility. The performance of the pump system is assessed with respect to number of failures, safety unavailability and costs during the life extension period. -- Highlights: ► Life extension assessment of technical systems using virtual age model is proposed. ► A virtual age model is generalised for systems in stand-by and continuous operation. ► The concept of current virtual age describes technical condition of the system. ► Different decision alternatives for life extension can be easily analysed. ► The decision process is improved even when only scarce failure data is available

Comparative endocrinology of aging and longevity regulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John eAllard

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Hormones regulate growth, development, metabolism, and other complex processes in multicellular animals. For many years it has been suggested that hormones may also influence the rate of the aging process. Aging is a multifactorial process that causes biological systems to break down and cease to function in adult organisms as time passes, eventually leading to death. The exact underlying causes of the aging process remain a topic for debate, and clues that may shed light on these causes are eagerly sought after. In the last two decades, gene mutations that result in delayed aging and extended longevity have been discovered, and many of the affected genes have been components of endocrine signaling pathways. In this review we summarize the current knowledge on the roles of endocrine signaling in the regulation of aging and longevity in various animals. We begin by discussing the notion that conserved systems, including endocrine signaling pathways, regulate the aging process. Findings from the major model organisms: worms, flies and rodents, are then outlined. Unique lessons from studies of non-traditional models: bees, salmon and naked mole rats, are also discussed. Finally, we summarize the endocrinology of aging in humans, including changes in hormone levels with age, and the involvement of hormones in aging-related diseases. The most well studied and widely conserved endocrine pathway that affects aging is the insulin/insulin-like growth factor system. Mutations in genes of this pathway increase the lifespan of worms, flies, and mice. Population genetic evidence also suggests this pathway’s involvement in human aging. Other hormones including steroids have been linked to aging only in a subset of the models studied. Because of the value of comparative studies, it is suggested that the aging field could benefit from adoption of additional model organisms.

Effects of IMOD and Angipars on Mouse D-Galactose-Induced Model of Aging

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Samane Ghanbari

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of two registered herbal drugs called IMOD and Angipars on mouse model of. Aging was induced by D-galactose (500 mg/kgadministered to animals for 6 weeks through drinking water. Male BALB/c mice were randomly divided into 5 groups receiving D-galactose (D-galactose, 500 mg/kg for 6 weeks; positive control (D-galactose [500 mg/kg] for 6 weeks + Vitamin E [200 mg/kg/day]intraperitoneally for 4 weeks; IMOD (D-galactose [500 mg/kg] for 6 weeks + IMOD [20 mg/kg/day] intraperitoneally for 4 weeks, Angipars (D-galactose [500 mg/kg] for 6 weeks + Angipars [2.1 mg/kg/day] by gavage for 4 weeks; and the fifth group that was sham and not given D-galactose. At the end of treatment, pro-inflammatory markers including tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α, interlukine-1β (IL-β, interlukine-6 (IL-6, NF-kappaB (NF-κb, total antioxidant power (TAP, lipid peroxides (LPO and male sex hormones i.e.testosterone and dehydroepiandrosterone-sulfate (DHEA-S were measured in the blood.Results showed that D-Galactose induces a significant oxidative stress and proinflammatory cascade of aging while both IMOD and Angipars recovered all of them. Interestingly, IMOD and Angipars were better than Vitamin E in improving male sex hormones that were declined in aged mice. This effect is so important and should be considered as an advantage although it cannot be explained with current knowledge. The conclusion is that IMOD and Angipars have marked anti-aging effect on D-galactose-induced model of aging.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A whole-body mathematical model of cholesterol metabolism and its age-associated dysregulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mc Auley Mark T

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Global demographic changes have stimulated marked interest in the process of aging. There has been, and will continue to be, an unrelenting rise in the number of the oldest old ( >85 years of age. Together with an ageing population there comes an increase in the prevalence of age related disease. Of the diseases of ageing, cardiovascular disease (CVD has by far the highest prevalence. It is regarded that a finely tuned lipid profile may help to prevent CVD as there is a long established relationship between alterations to lipid metabolism and CVD risk. In fact elevated plasma cholesterol, particularly Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C has consistently stood out as a risk factor for having a cardiovascular event. Moreover it is widely acknowledged that LDL-C may rise with age in both sexes in a wide variety of groups. The aim of this work was to use a whole-body mathematical model to investigate why LDL-C rises with age, and to test the hypothesis that mechanistic changes to cholesterol absorption and LDL-C removal from the plasma are responsible for the rise. The whole-body mechanistic nature of the model differs from previous models of cholesterol metabolism which have either focused on intracellular cholesterol homeostasis or have concentrated on an isolated area of lipoprotein dynamics. The model integrates both current and previously published data relating to molecular biology, physiology, ageing and nutrition in an integrated fashion. Results The model was used to test the hypothesis that alterations to the rate of cholesterol absorption and changes to the rate of removal of LDL-C from the plasma are integral to understanding why LDL-C rises with age. The model demonstrates that increasing the rate of intestinal cholesterol absorption from 50% to 80% by age 65 years can result in an increase of LDL-C by as much as 34 mg/dL in a hypothetical male subject. The model also shows that decreasing the rate of hepatic

A mathematical model of aging-related and cortisol induced hippocampal dysfunction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jones Janette JL

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The hippocampus is essential for declarative memory synthesis and is a core pathological substrate for Alzheimer's disease (AD, the most common aging-related dementing disease. Acute increases in plasma cortisol are associated with transient hippocampal inhibition and retrograde amnesia, while chronic cortisol elevation is associated with hippocampal atrophy. Thus, cortisol levels could be monitored and managed in older people, to decrease their risk of AD type hippocampal dysfunction. We generated an in silicomodel of the chronic effects of elevated plasma cortisol on hippocampal activity and atrophy, using the systems biology mark-up language (SBML. We further challenged the model with biologically based interventions to ascertain if cortisol associated hippocampal dysfunction could be abrogated. Results The in silicoSBML model reflected the in vivoaging of the hippocampus and increased plasma cortisol and negative feedback to the hypothalamic pituitary axis. Aging induced a 12% decrease in hippocampus activity (HA, increased to 30% by acute and 40% by chronic elevations in cortisol. The biological intervention attenuated the cortisol associated decrease in HA by 2% in the acute cortisol simulation and by 8% in the chronic simulation. Conclusion Both acute and chronic elevations in cortisol secretion increased aging-associated hippocampal atrophy and a loss of HA in the model. We suggest that this first SMBL model, in tandem with in vitroand in vivostudies, may provide a backbone to further frame computational cortisol and brain aging models, which may help predict aging-related brain changes in vulnerable older people.

The Healthy Aging Research Network: Modeling Collaboration for Community Impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Belza, Basia; Altpeter, Mary; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ory, Marcia G

2017-03-01

As the first Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Prevention Research Centers Program thematic network, the Healthy Aging Research Network was established to better understand the determinants of healthy aging within older adult populations, identify interventions that promote healthy aging, and assist in translating research into sustainable community-based programs throughout the nation. To achieve these goals requires concerted efforts of a collaborative network of academic, community, and public health organizational partnerships. For the 2001-2014 Prevention Research Center funding cycles, the Healthy Aging Research Network conducted prevention research and promoted the wide use of practices known to foster optimal health. Organized around components necessary for successful collaborations (i.e., governance and infrastructure, shaping focus, community involvement, and evaluation and improvement), this commentary highlights exemplars that demonstrate the Healthy Aging Research Network's unique contributions to the field. The Healthy Aging Research Network's collaboration provided a means to collectively build capacity for practice and policy, reduce fragmentation and duplication in health promotion and aging research efforts, maximize the efficient use of existing resources and generate additional resources, and ultimately, create synergies for advancing the healthy aging agenda. This collaborative model was built upon a backbone organization (coordinating center); setting of common agendas and mutually reinforcing activities; and continuous communications. Given its successes, the Healthy Aging Research Network model could be used to create new and evaluate existing thematic networks to guide the translation of research into policy and practice. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early-age behaviour of concrete in massive structures, experimentation and modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zreiki, J., E-mail: zreiki@lmt.ens-cachan.f [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Bouchelaghem, F. [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); UPMC Univ Paris 06 (France); Chaouche, M. [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France)

2010-10-15

This study is focused on the behaviour of concrete at early-age in massive structures, in relation with the prediction of both cracking risk and residual stresses, which is still a challenging task. In this paper, a 3D thermo-chemo-mechanical model has been developed, on the basis of complete material characterization experiments, in order to predict the early-age development of strains and residual stresses, and in order to assess the risk of cracking in massive concrete structures. The parameters of the proposed model were identified on two different concretes, High Performance Concrete and Fibrous Self-Compacted Concrete - from simple experiments in the laboratory: uniaxial tension and compression tests, dynamic Young's modulus measurements, free and autogenous shrinkages, semi-adiabatic calorimetry. The proposed model has been implemented in a Finite Element code, and the numerical simulations of the laboratory tests have proved the model consistency. Furthermore, early-age experiments conducted on massive structures have also been simulated, in order to investigate the predictive capability of the model, and to assess the model performance in practical situations where varying temperatures are involved.

Use of reflectance spectrophotometry and colorimetry in a general linear model for the determination of the age of bruises.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Vanessa K; Langlois, Neil E I

2010-12-01

Bruises can have medicolegal significance such that the age of a bruise may be an important issue. This study sought to determine if colorimetry or reflectance spectrophotometry could be employed to objectively estimate the age of bruises. Based on a previously described method, reflectance spectrophotometric scans were obtained from bruises using a Cary 100 Bio spectrophotometer fitted with a fibre-optic reflectance probe. Measurements were taken from the bruise and a control area. Software was used to calculate the first derivative at 490 and 480 nm; the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin was calculated using an isobestic point method and a software application converted the scan data into colorimetry data. In addition, data on factors that might be associated with the determination of the age of a bruise: subject age, subject sex, degree of trauma, bruise size, skin color, body build, and depth of bruise were recorded. From 147 subjects, 233 reflectance spectrophotometry scans were obtained for analysis. The age of the bruises ranged from 0.5 to 231.5 h. A General Linear Model analysis method was used. This revealed that colorimetric measurement of the yellowness of a bruise accounted for 13% of the bruise age. By incorporation of the other recorded data (as above), yellowness could predict up to 32% of the age of a bruise-implying that 68% of the variation was dependent on other factors. However, critical appraisal of the model revealed that the colorimetry method of determining the age of a bruise was affected by skin tone and required a measure of the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin, which is obtained by spectrophotometric methods. Using spectrophotometry, the first derivative at 490 nm alone accounted for 18% of the bruise age estimate. When additional factors (subject sex, bruise depth and oxygenation of hemoglobin) were included in the General Linear Model this increased to 31%-implying that 69% of the variation was dependent on other factors. This

Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Titina, B.; Cepin, M.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)

Histone methylation and aging: Lessons learned from model systems

Science.gov (United States)

McCauley, Brenna S.; Dang, Weiwei

2014-01-01

Aging induces myriad cellular and, ultimately, physiological changes that cause a decline in an organism's functional capabilities. Although the aging process and pathways that regulate it have been extensively studied, only in the last decade have we begun to appreciate that dynamic histone methylation may contribute to this process. In this review, we discuss recent work implicating histone methylation in aging. Loss of certain histone methyltransferases and demethylases changes lifespan in invertebrates, and alterations in histone methylation in aged organisms regulate lifespan and aging phenotypes, including oxidative stress-induced hormesis in yeast, insulin signaling in Caenorhabiditis elegans and mammals, and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype in mammals. In all cases where histone methylation has been shown to impact aging and aging phenotypes, it does so by regulating transcription, suggesting that this is a major mechanism of its action in this context. Histone methylation additionally regulates or is regulated by other cellular pathways that contribute to or combat aging. Given the numerous processes that regulate aging and histone methylation, and are in turn regulated by them, the role of histone methylation in aging is almost certainly underappreciated. PMID:24859460

Development of the Japanese reference man model for age-specific phantoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawamura, H.

2012-01-01

Recent interest in improving methods for calculating radiation doses to atomic bomb survivors necessitates reinforcing the data on masses of organs of the Japanese population in 1945, including those that are not calculated by DS02, as well as increasing the number of phantoms for different ages. Reference is made to published data on the masses of organs in normal Japanese subjects of 0-90 y of age with more than 5000 samples during 1970-80, as well as the weight and size of the total body. The first Japanese Reference Man model, primarily based on these data and following the ICRP Reference Man concept, is briefly explained. It provides a set of reference values for males and females of six age groups, i.e. 3 months, 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20-50 y. To consider the organ masses of the Japanese population in 1945, the data during the period 1970-80 are compared with the literature data of normal Japanese reported in 1952. Differences between the two sets of organ data in adults are discussed in relation to changes in the national status of nutrition. Additional organ masses of current interest for the Japanese population in 1945 are preliminarily considered. (author)

Impact papers on aging in 2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blagosklonny, Mikhail V; Campisi, Judy; Sinclair, David A

2010-01-01

The Editorial Board of Aging reviews research papers published in 2009, which they believe have or will have significant impact on aging research. Among many others, the topics include genes that accelerate aging or in contrast promote longevity in model organisms, DNA damage responses and telome...

Including cetaceans in multi-species assessment models using strandings data: why, how and what can we do about it?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camilo Saavedra

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Single-species models have been commonly used to assess fish stocks in the past. Since these models have relatively simple data requirements, they sometimes provide the only tool available to assess the status of a stock when data are not enough to develop more complex models. However, these models have been criticized for several reasons since they provide reference points independently for each species assessed ignoring their interactions. For example, several studies suggest that even more substantial reductions in fishing mortality may be necessary to ensure MSY is reached when taking into consideration multiespecies interactions. Therefore, and as Pauly et al. (1998 stated, single-species analysis may mislead researchers and managers into neglecting the gear and trophic interactions which ultimately determine stocks long-term yields and ecosystem health. Ecosystem or multispecies models offer a number of advantages over single-species models. As stated in the workshop “Incorporating ecosystem considerations into stock assessments and management advice” (Mace, 2000 two general improvements are: a better appreciation of the fishing on ecosystem structure and function, and a better appreciation of the need to consider de value of marine ecosystems for functions other than harvesting fish. As disadvantages, multispecies models are statistically complex and include trophic relationships requiring more information (e.g. good estimations of biological parameters of each species and generally a full quantification of the diet sometimes available though the analysis of stomach contents. To reduce the number of species and therefore the amount of information needed, Minimum Realistic Models (MRMs represent an intermediate level of complexity, where only the subset of the ecosystem, important for the issue under consideration, is modeled. This approach offers the advantage of allowing a refinement of our estimates and can help answer more targeted

Premature hippocampus-dependent memory decline in middle-aged females of a genetic rat model of depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Patrick H; Wert, Stephanie L; Tunc-Ozcan, Elif; Marr, Robert; Ferreira, Adriana; Redei, Eva E

2018-02-25

Aging and major depressive disorder are risk factors for dementia, including Alzheimer's Disease (AD), but the mechanism(s) linking depression and dementia are not known. Both AD and depression show greater prevalence in women. We began to investigate this connection using females of the genetic model of depression, the inbred Wistar Kyoto More Immobile (WMI) rat. These rats consistently display depression-like behavior compared to the genetically close control, the Wistar Kyoto Less Immobile (WLI) strain. Hippocampus-dependent contextual fear memory did not differ between young WLI and WMI females, but, by middle-age, female WMIs showed memory deficits compared to same age WLIs. This deficit, measured as duration of freezing in the fear provoking-context was not related to activity differences between the strains prior to fear conditioning. Hippocampal expression of AD-related genes, such as amyloid precursor protein, amyloid beta 42, beta secretase, synucleins, total and dephosphorylated tau, and synaptophysin, did not differ between WLIs and WMIs in either age group. However, hippocampal transcript levels of catalase (Cat) and hippocampal and frontal cortex expression of insulin-like growth factor 2 (Igf2) and Igf2 receptor (Igf2r) paralleled fear memory differences between middle-aged WLIs and WMIs. This data suggests that chronic depression-like behavior that is present in this genetic model is a risk factor for early spatial memory decline in females. The molecular mechanisms of this early memory decline likely involve the interaction of aging processes with the genetic components responsible for the depression-like behavior in this model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in episodic memory and visual working memory including the effects of age.

Science.gov (United States)

Pauls, Franz; Petermann, Franz; Lepach, Anja Christina

2013-01-01

Analysing the relationship between gender and memory, and examining the effects of age on the overall memory-related functioning, are the ongoing goals of psychological research. The present study examined gender and age group differences in episodic memory with respect to the type of task. In addition, these subgroup differences were also analysed in visual working memory. A sample of 366 women and 330 men, aged between 16 and 69 years of age, participated in the current study. Results indicate that women outperformed men on auditory memory tasks, whereas male adolescents and older male adults showed higher level performances on visual episodic and visual working memory measures. However, the size of gender-linked effects varied somewhat across age groups. Furthermore, results partly support a declining performance on episodic memory and visual working memory measures with increasing age. Although age-related losses in episodic memory could not be explained by a decreasing verbal and visuospatial ability with age, women's advantage in auditory episodic memory could be explained by their advantage in verbal ability. Men's higher level visual episodic memory performance was found to result from their advantage in visuospatial ability. Finally, possible methodological, biological, and cognitive explanations for the current findings are discussed.

A model for ageing-home-care service process improvement

OpenAIRE

Yu, Shu-Yan; Shie, An-Jin

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated model to improve service processes in ageing-home-care. According to the literature, existing service processes have potential service failures that affect service quality and efficacy. However, most previous studies have only focused on conceptual model development using New Service Development (NSD) and fail to provide a systematic model to analyse potential service failures and facilitate managers developing solutions to improve the se...

[The use of biological age on mental work capacity model in accelerated aging assessment of professional lorry-drivers].

Science.gov (United States)

Bashkireva, A S

2012-01-01

The studies of biological age, aging rate, mental work capacity in professional drivers were conducted. The examination revealed peculiarities of system organization of functions determining the mental work capacity levels. Dynamics of the aging process of professional driver's organism in relation with calendar age and driving experience were shown using the biological age model. The results point at the premature decrease of the mental work capacity in professional drivers. It was proved, that premature age-related changes of physiologic and psychophysiologic indices in drivers are just "risk indicators", while long driving experience is a real risk factor, accelerating the aging process. The "risk group" with manifestations of accelerating aging was observed in 40-49-year old drivers with 15-19 years of professional experience. The expediency of using the following methods for the age rate estimation according to biologic age indices and necessity of prophylactic measures for premature and accelerated aging prevention among working population was demonstrated.

Grand unified models including extra Z bosons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Tiezhong

1989-01-01

The grand unified theories (GUT) of the simple Lie groups including extra Z bosons are discussed. Under authors's hypothesis there are only SU 5+m SO 6+4n and E 6 groups. The general discussion of SU 5+m is given, then the SU 6 and SU 7 are considered. In SU 6 the 15+6 * +6 * fermion representations are used, which are not same as others in fermion content, Yukawa coupling and broken scales. A conception of clans of particles, which are not families, is suggested. These clans consist of extra Z bosons and the corresponding fermions of the scale. The all of fermions in the clans are down quarks except for the standard model which consists of Z bosons and 15 fermions, therefore, the spectrum of the hadrons which are composed of these down quarks are different from hadrons at present

The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

CERN Document Server

Iannelli, Mimmo

2017-01-01

This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

Modeling of cylindrical surrounding gate MOSFETs including the fringing field effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Santosh K.; Baishya, Srimanta

2013-01-01

A physically based analytical model for surface potential and threshold voltage including the fringing gate capacitances in cylindrical surround gate (CSG) MOSFETs has been developed. Based on this a subthreshold drain current model has also been derived. This model first computes the charge induced in the drain/source region due to the fringing capacitances and considers an effective charge distribution in the cylindrically extended source/drain region for the development of a simple and compact model. The fringing gate capacitances taken into account are outer fringe capacitance, inner fringe capacitance, overlap capacitance, and sidewall capacitance. The model has been verified with the data extracted from 3D TCAD simulations of CSG MOSFETs and was found to be working satisfactorily. (semiconductor devices)

State of the art report on aging reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Han, Sang Hoon; Ha, Jae Joo

2002-03-01

The goal of this report is to describe the state of the art on aging analysis methods to calculate the effects of component aging quantitatively. In this report, we described some aging analysis methods which calculate the increase of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) due to aging by including the influence of aging into PSA. We also described several research topics required for aging analysis for components of domestic NPPs. We have described a statistical model and reliability physics model which calculate the effect of aging quantitatively by using PSA method. It is expected that the practical use of the reliability-physics model will be increased though the process with the reliability-physics model is more complicated than statistical model

Building from a conceptual model of the resilience process during ageing, towards the Groningen Aging Resilience Inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

van Abbema, Renske; Bielderman, Annemiek; De Greef, Mathieu; Hobbelen, Hans; Krijnen, Wim; van der Schans, Cees

2015-09-01

To develop and psychometrically test the Groningen Ageing Resilience Inventory. Ageing is a process that is often accompanied by functional limitation, disabilities and losses. Instead of focusing on these negative events of ageing, there are opportunities in focusing on adaptation mechanisms, like resilience, that are helpful to cope with those adversities. Cross-sectional study. The study was conducted from 2011-2012. First, a conceptual model of resilience during the ageing process was constructed. Next, items were formulated that made up a comprehensive template questionnaire reflecting the model. Finally, a cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate the construct validity and internal consistency of this template 16-item questionnaire. Participants (N = 229) with a mean age of 71·5 years, completed the template 16-item Groningen Ageing Resilience Inventory, and performance based tests and psychological questionnaires. Exploratory factor analysis resulted in a two factor solution of internal and external resources of resilience. Three items did not discriminate well between the two factors and were deleted, remaining a final 13-item questionnaire that shows evidence of good internal consistency. The direction and magnitude of the correlations with other measures support the construct validity. The Groningen Ageing Resilience Inventory is a useful instrument that can help nurses, other healthcare workers, researchers and providers of informal care to identify the internal and external resources of resilience in individuals and groups. In a multidisciplinary biopsychosocial approach this knowledge provides tools for empowering older patients in performing health promoting behaviors and self-care tasks. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age-related changes in mastication are not improved by tongue exercise in a rat model.

Science.gov (United States)

Krekeler, Brittany N; Connor, Nadine P

2017-01-01

Aging results in progressive changes in deglutitive functions, which may be due in part to alterations in muscle morphology and physiology. Mastication is a critical component of bolus formation and swallowing, but aging effects on masticatory function have not been well studied. The purpose of this study was to 1) quantify the effects of aging on mastication, and 2) determine the effects of tongue exercise on mastication in young adult and old rats. We hypothesized that there would be significant differences in mastication characteristics (number of bites, interval between bites, time to eat) as a function of age, and that tongue exercise would resolve preexercise differences between age groups. We expanded the established model of progressive, 8-week tongue exercise to include a mastication measurement: acoustic recordings of vermicelli pasta biting from 17 old and 17 young adult rats, randomized into exercise and control groups. We found the following: 1) Mastication characteristics were impacted by age. Specifically in older rats, there was an increase in time to eat and number of bites and intervals between bites decreased, suggesting increased oral motor-processing requirements for bolus formation. 2) tongue exercise did not impact mastication behaviors in young adult or old rats. Tongue exercise may not have been specific enough to result in behavioral changes in mastication or exercise dose may not have been sufficient. Nevertheless, results were noteworthy in expanding the established rat model of aging and have relevant clinical implications for future translation to human populations. NA Laryngoscope, 127:E29-E34, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Genetic mouse models of brain ageing and Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilkei-Gorzo, Andras

2014-05-01

Progression of brain ageing is influenced by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Analysis of genetically modified animals with uniform genetic backgrounds in a standardised, controlled environment enables the dissection of critical determinants of brain ageing on a molecular level. Human and animal studies suggest that increased load of damaged macromolecules, efficacy of DNA maintenance, mitochondrial activity, and cellular stress defences are critical determinants of brain ageing. Surprisingly, mouse lines with genetic impairment of anti-oxidative capacity generally did not show enhanced cognitive ageing but rather an increased sensitivity to oxidative challenge. Mouse lines with impaired mitochondrial activity had critically short life spans or severe and rapidly progressing neurodegeneration. Strains with impaired clearance in damaged macromolecules or defects in the regulation of cellular stress defences showed alterations in the onset and progression of cognitive decline. Importantly, reduced insulin/insulin-like growth factor signalling generally increased life span but impaired cognitive functions revealing a complex interaction between ageing of the brain and of the body. Brain ageing is accompanied by an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. Transgenic mouse models expressing high levels of mutant human amyloid precursor protein showed a number of symptoms and pathophysiological processes typical for early phase of Alzheimer's disease. Generally, therapeutic strategies effective against Alzheimer's disease in humans were also active in the Tg2576, APP23, APP/PS1 and 5xFAD lines, but a large number of false positive findings were also reported. The 3xtg AD model likely has the highest face and construct validity but further studies are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mice as a model system for glomerular aging

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1-/Δ progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. Results In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1-/Δ mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1-/Δ as well as old WT and Ercc1-/Δ samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1-/Δ mice (p aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies. PMID:23947592

Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1(-/Δ) mice as a model system for glomerular aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Schermer, Bernhard; Bartels, Valerie; Frommolt, Peter; Habermann, Bianca; Braun, Fabian; Schultze, Joachim L; Roodbergen, Marianne; Hoeijmakers, Jan Hj; Schumacher, Björn; Nürnberg, Peter; Dollé, Martijn Et; Benzing, Thomas; Müller, Roman-Ulrich; Kurschat, Christine E

2013-08-16

Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1(-/Δ) progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1(-/Δ) mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) as well as old WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) mice (p aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1(-/Δ) mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies.

Establishing a Proper Model of Tobacco Dependence: Influence of Age and Tobacco Smoke Constituents

OpenAIRE

Gellner, Candice Ann

2017-01-01

Cigarette smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Of those who smoke, 9 out of 10 report trying their first cigarette before the age of 18. Although most people who initiate tobacco use are teenagers, animal models for studying tobacco dependence have traditionally focused on how adult animals initiate, withdrawal from and relapse to cigarette smoking. Furthermore, cigarette smoke contains more than 7,000 constituents, including nicotine, yet pre-clinical resea...

A roller chain drive model including contact with guide-bars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Sine Leergaard; Hansen, John Michael; Ambrósio, J. A. C.

2004-01-01

A model of a roller chain drive is developed and applied to the simulation and analysis of roller chain drives of large marine diesel engines. The model includes the impact with guide-bars that are the motion delimiter components on the chain strands between the sprockets. The main components...... and the sprocket centre, i.e. a constraint is added when such distance is less than the pitch radius. The unilateral kinematic constraint is removed when its associated constraint reaction force, applied on the roller, is in the direction of the root of the sprocket teeth. In order to improve the numerical...

A constitutive model for the forces of a magnetic bearing including eddy currents

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, D. L.; Hebbale, K. V.

1993-01-01

A multiple magnet bearing can be developed from N individual electromagnets. The constitutive relationships for a single magnet in such a bearing is presented. Analytical expressions are developed for a magnet with poles arranged circumferencially. Maxwell's field equations are used so the model easily includes the effects of induced eddy currents due to the rotation of the journal. Eddy currents must be included in any dynamic model because they are the only speed dependent parameter and may lead to a critical speed for the bearing. The model is applicable to bearings using attraction or repulsion.

Multi-physics Model for the Aging Prediction of a Vanadium Redox Flow Battery System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merei, Ghada; Adler, Sophie; Magnor, Dirk; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Present a multi-physics model of vanadium redox-flow battery. • This model is essential for aging prediction. • It is applicable for VRB system of different power and capacity ratings. • Good results comparing with current research in this field. - Abstract: The all-vanadium redox-flow battery is an attractive candidate to compensate the fluctuations of non-dispatchable renewable energy generation. While several models for vanadium redox batteries have been described yet, no model has been published, which is adequate for the aging prediction. Therefore, the present paper presents a multi-physics model which determines all parameters that are essential for an aging prediction. In a following paper, the corresponding aging model of vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) is described. The model combines existing models for the mechanical losses and temperature development with new approaches for the batteries side reactions. The model was implemented in Matlab/Simulink. The modeling results presented in the paper prove to be consistent with the experimental results of other research groups

Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

2015-02-01

We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point.

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

Science.gov (United States)

Dietmüller, Simone; Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Birner, Thomas; Boenisch, Harald; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Visioni, Daniele; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke; Deushi, Makoto; Kiyotaka, Shibata; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Stone, Kane Adam; Schofield, Robyn

2018-05-01

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

78 FR 37586 - Stone Age Interiors, Inc., D/B/A Colorado Springs Marble and Granite, Including On-Site Leased...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-21

... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-82,440] Stone Age Interiors, Inc., D/B/A Colorado Springs Marble and Granite, Including On-Site Leased Workers From Express Employment... Marble and Granite, Colorado Springs, Colorado (subject firm). The negative determination was issued on...

Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

2017-04-01

Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

Basis for the ICRP's age-specific biokinetic model for uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.

1994-01-01

In an effort motivated largely by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is developing age-specific biokinetic models and dose coefficients for environmentally important radionuclides. This paper describes the ICRP's age-specific biokinetic model for uranium. The model is constructed within a physiologically based framework originally developed for application to the alkaline earth elements but sufficiently general to apply to the larger class of bone-volume-seeking elements. Transfer rates for a reference adult are based mainly on: (1) measurements of uranium in blood and excreta of several human subjects who were intravenously injected with uranium; (2) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of some of those subjects; (3) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of occupationally and non-occupationally exposed subjects; (4) data on baboons, dogs, and smaller laboratory animals exposed to uranium for experimental purposes; and (5) consideration of the physiological processes thought to control retention and translocation of uranium in the body. Transfer rates for the adult are extended to children by application of a set of generic assumptions applied by the ICRP to calcium-like elements. These assumptions were derived mainly from observations of the age-specific biokinetics of the alkaline earth elements and lead in humans and laboratory animals but are consistent with available age-specific biokinetic data on uranium. 82 refs., 17 figs., 8 tabs

A Mathematical Model Of Ageing In Man Due To Gene Loss | Mbah ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Aging is as a result of dysfunction of the body mechanisms due to failure of one organelle, tissue, component or the other. In man there is a pointer towards gene loss as a primary cause of ageing. In this paper we develop a mathematical model describing changes in gene efficiency or gene failure. This model is used to ...

A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects

Science.gov (United States)

Gilberg, Dominik; Klar, Axel; Steiner, Konrad

2017-06-01

The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.

A rat model system to study complex disease risks, fitness, aging, and longevity.

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Lauren Gerard; Britton, Steven L; Wisløff, Ulrik

2012-02-01

The association between low exercise capacity and all-cause morbidity and mortality is statistically strong yet mechanistically unresolved. By connecting clinical observation with a theoretical base, we developed a working hypothesis that variation in capacity for oxygen metabolism is the central mechanistic determinant between disease and health (aerobic hypothesis). As an unbiased test, we show that two-way artificial selective breeding of rats for low and high intrinsic endurance exercise capacity also produces rats that differ for numerous disease risks, including the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular complications, premature aging, and reduced longevity. This contrasting animal model system may prove to be translationally superior relative to more widely used simplistic models for understanding geriatric biology and medicine. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Significance of categorization and the modeling of age related factors for radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Osamu

1987-01-01

It is proposed that the categorization and modelling are necessary with regard to age related factors of radionuclide metabolism for the radiation protection of the public. In order to utilize the age related information as a model for life time risk estimate of public, it is necessary to generalize and simplify it according to the categorized model patterns. Since the patterns of age related changes in various parameters of radionuclide metabolism seem to be rather simple, it is possible to categorize them into eleven types of model patterns. Among these models, five are selected as positively significant models to be considered. Examples are shown as to the fitting of representative parameters of both physiological and metabolic parameter of radionuclides into the proposed model. The range of deviation from adult standard value is also analyzed for each model. The fitting of each parameter to categorized models, and its comparative consideration provide the effective information as to the physiological basis of radionuclide metabolism. Discussions are made on the problems encountered in the application of available age related information to radiation protection of the public, i.e. distribution of categorized parameter, period of life covered, range of deviation from adult value, implication to other dosimetric and pathological models and to the final estimation. 5 refs.; 3 figs.; 4 tabs

Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

OpenAIRE

Miroslaw Luft; Elzbieta Szychta

2008-01-01

The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

A potential impact of DNA repair on ageing and lifespan in the ageing model organism Podospora anserina

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soerensen, Mette; Gredilla, Ricardo; Müller-Ohldach, Mathis

2009-01-01

and hence contribute to ageing and lifespan control in this ageing model. Additionally, we find low DNA glycosylase activities in the long-lived mutants grisea and DeltaPaCox17::ble, which are characterized by low mitochondrial ROS generation. Overall, our data identify a potential role of mtDNA repair......The free radical theory of ageing states that ROS play a key role in age-related decrease in mitochondrial function via the damage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), proteins and lipids. In the sexually reproducing ascomycete Podospora anserina ageing is, as in other eukaryotes, associated with mtDNA...... instability and mitochondrial dysfunction. Part of the mtDNA instabilities may arise due to accumulation of ROS induced mtDNA lesions, which, as previously suggested for mammals, may be caused by an age-related decrease in base excision repair (BER). Alignments of known BER protein sequences with the P...

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Uwe; Walsh, Linda

2015-08-01

Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend the risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin's disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages before 55 yr reasonably well. However, for

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huang Yi-Chia

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit

OpenAIRE

Luft, M.; Szychta, E.

2008-01-01

The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with the aid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

Development and Validation of an Older Occupant Finite Element Model of a Mid-Sized Male for Investigation of Age-related Injury Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Urban, Jillian E; Jones, Derek A; Stitzel, Joel D; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hu, Jingwen

2015-11-01

The aging population is a growing concern as the increased fragility and frailty of the elderly results in an elevated incidence of injury as well as an increased risk of mortality and morbidity. To assess elderly injury risk, age-specific computational models can be developed to directly calculate biomechanical metrics for injury. The first objective was to develop an older occupant Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) average male model (M50) representative of a 65 year old (YO) and to perform regional validation tests to investigate predicted fractures and injury severity with age. Development of the GHBMC M50 65 YO model involved implementing geometric, cortical thickness, and material property changes with age. Regional validation tests included a chest impact, a lateral impact, a shoulder impact, a thoracoabdominal impact, an abdominal bar impact, a pelvic impact, and a lateral sled test. The second objective was to investigate age-related injury risks by performing a frontal US NCAP simulation test with the GHBMC M50 65 YO and the GHBMC M50 v4.2 models. Simulation results were compared to the GHBMC M50 v4.2 to evaluate the effect of age on occupant response and risk for head injury, neck injury, thoracic injury, and lower extremity injury. Overall, the GHBMC M50 65 YO model predicted higher probabilities of AIS 3+ injury for the head and thorax.

Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felix Grassmann

Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

Accurate SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure modeling, including pseudoknots.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajdin, Christine E; Bellaousov, Stanislav; Huggins, Wayne; Leonard, Christopher W; Mathews, David H; Weeks, Kevin M

2013-04-02

A pseudoknot forms in an RNA when nucleotides in a loop pair with a region outside the helices that close the loop. Pseudoknots occur relatively rarely in RNA but are highly overrepresented in functionally critical motifs in large catalytic RNAs, in riboswitches, and in regulatory elements of viruses. Pseudoknots are usually excluded from RNA structure prediction algorithms. When included, these pairings are difficult to model accurately, especially in large RNAs, because allowing this structure dramatically increases the number of possible incorrect folds and because it is difficult to search the fold space for an optimal structure. We have developed a concise secondary structure modeling approach that combines SHAPE (selective 2'-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension) experimental chemical probing information and a simple, but robust, energy model for the entropic cost of single pseudoknot formation. Structures are predicted with iterative refinement, using a dynamic programming algorithm. This melded experimental and thermodynamic energy function predicted the secondary structures and the pseudoknots for a set of 21 challenging RNAs of known structure ranging in size from 34 to 530 nt. On average, 93% of known base pairs were predicted, and all pseudoknots in well-folded RNAs were identified.

Progress Towards an LES Wall Model Including Unresolved Roughness

Science.gov (United States)

Craft, Kyle; Redman, Andrew; Aikens, Kurt

2015-11-01

Wall models used in large eddy simulations (LES) are often based on theories for hydraulically smooth walls. While this is reasonable for many applications, there are also many where the impact of surface roughness is important. A previously developed wall model has been used primarily for jet engine aeroacoustics. However, jet simulations have not accurately captured thick initial shear layers found in some experimental data. This may partly be due to nozzle wall roughness used in the experiments to promote turbulent boundary layers. As a result, the wall model is extended to include the effects of unresolved wall roughness through appropriate alterations to the log-law. The methodology is tested for incompressible flat plate boundary layers with different surface roughness. Correct trends are noted for the impact of surface roughness on the velocity profile. However, velocity deficit profiles and the Reynolds stresses do not collapse as well as expected. Possible reasons for the discrepancies as well as future work will be presented. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number ACI-1053575. Computational resources on TACC Stampede were provided under XSEDE allocation ENG150001.

Kinetic models of gene expression including non-coding RNAs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhdanov, Vladimir P., E-mail: zhdanov@catalysis.r

2011-03-15

In cells, genes are transcribed into mRNAs, and the latter are translated into proteins. Due to the feedbacks between these processes, the kinetics of gene expression may be complex even in the simplest genetic networks. The corresponding models have already been reviewed in the literature. A new avenue in this field is related to the recognition that the conventional scenario of gene expression is fully applicable only to prokaryotes whose genomes consist of tightly packed protein-coding sequences. In eukaryotic cells, in contrast, such sequences are relatively rare, and the rest of the genome includes numerous transcript units representing non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs). During the past decade, it has become clear that such RNAs play a crucial role in gene expression and accordingly influence a multitude of cellular processes both in the normal state and during diseases. The numerous biological functions of ncRNAs are based primarily on their abilities to silence genes via pairing with a target mRNA and subsequently preventing its translation or facilitating degradation of the mRNA-ncRNA complex. Many other abilities of ncRNAs have been discovered as well. Our review is focused on the available kinetic models describing the mRNA, ncRNA and protein interplay. In particular, we systematically present the simplest models without kinetic feedbacks, models containing feedbacks and predicting bistability and oscillations in simple genetic networks, and models describing the effect of ncRNAs on complex genetic networks. Mathematically, the presentation is based primarily on temporal mean-field kinetic equations. The stochastic and spatio-temporal effects are also briefly discussed.

Mechanisms of skeletal muscle aging: insights from Drosophila and mammalian models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabio Demontis

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A characteristic feature of aged humans and other mammals is the debilitating, progressive loss of skeletal muscle function and mass that is known as sarcopenia. Age-related muscle dysfunction occurs to an even greater extent during the relatively short lifespan of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. Studies in model organisms indicate that sarcopenia is driven by a combination of muscle tissue extrinsic and intrinsic factors, and that it fundamentally differs from the rapid atrophy of muscles observed following disuse and fasting. Extrinsic changes in innervation, stem cell function and endocrine regulation of muscle homeostasis contribute to muscle aging. In addition, organelle dysfunction and compromised protein homeostasis are among the primary intrinsic causes. Some of these age-related changes can in turn contribute to the induction of compensatory stress responses that have a protective role during muscle aging. In this Review, we outline how studies in Drosophila and mammalian model organisms can each provide distinct advantages to facilitate the understanding of this complex multifactorial condition and how they can be used to identify suitable therapies.

Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslaw Luft

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

Exploring Demographic Shifts : Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Logtens, T.; Gijsbers, G.

2011-01-01

Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as

The mouse as a model organism in aging research: usefulness, pitfalls and possibilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanhooren, Valerie; Libert, Claude

2013-01-01

The mouse has become the favorite mammalian model. Among the many reasons for this privileged position of mice is their genetic proximity to humans, the possibilities of genetically manipulating their genomes and the availability of many tools, mutants and inbred strains. Also in the field of aging, mice have become very robust and reliable research tools. Since laboratory mice have a life expectancy of only a few years, genetic approaches and other strategies for intervening in aging can be tested by examining their effects on life span and aging parameters during the relatively short period of, for example, a PhD project. Moreover, experiments on mice with an extended life span as well as on mice demonstrating signs of (segmental) premature aging, together with genetic mapping strategies, have provided novel insights into the fundamental processes that drive aging. Finally, the results of studies on caloric restriction and pharmacological anti-aging treatments in mice have a high degree of relevance to humans. In this paper, we review a number of recent genetic mapping studies that have yielded novel insights into the aging process. We discuss the value of the mouse as a model for testing interventions in aging, such as caloric restriction, and we critically discuss mouse strains with an extended or a shortened life span as models of aging. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ON THE RELIABILITY OF STELLAR AGES AND AGE SPREADS INFERRED FROM PRE-MAIN-SEQUENCE EVOLUTIONARY MODELS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosokawa, Takashi; Offner, Stella S. R.; Krumholz, Mark R.

2011-01-01

We revisit the problem of low-mass pre-main-sequence stellar evolution and its observational consequences for where stars fall on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD). In contrast to most previous work, our models follow stars as they grow from small masses via accretion, and we perform a systematic study of how the stars' HRD evolution is influenced by their initial radius, by the radiative properties of the accretion flow, and by the accretion history, using both simple idealized accretion histories and histories taken from numerical simulations of star cluster formation. We compare our numerical results to both non-accreting isochrones and to the positions of observed stars in the HRD, with a goal of determining whether both the absolute ages and the age dispersions inferred from non-accreting isochrones are reliable. We show that non-accreting isochrones can sometimes overestimate stellar ages for more massive stars (those with effective temperatures above ∼3500 K), thereby explaining why non-accreting isochrones often suggest a systematic age difference between more and less massive stars in the same cluster. However, we also find the only way to produce a similar overestimate for the ages of cooler stars is if these stars grow from ∼0.01 M sun seed protostars that are an order of magnitude smaller than predicted by current theoretical models, and if the size of the seed protostar correlates systematically with the final stellar mass at the end of accretion. We therefore conclude that, unless both of these conditions are met, inferred ages and age spreads for cool stars are reliable, at least to the extent that the observed bolometric luminosities and temperatures are accurate. Finally, we note that the time dependence of the mass accretion rate has remarkably little effect on low-mass stars' evolution on the HRD, and that such time dependence may be neglected for all stars except those with effective temperatures above ∼4000 K.

Evolutionary model with genetics, aging, and knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Bustillos, Armando Ticona; de Oliveira, Paulo Murilo

2004-02-01

We represent a process of learning by using bit strings, where 1 bits represent the knowledge acquired by individuals. Two ways of learning are considered: individual learning by trial and error, and social learning by copying knowledge from other individuals or from parents in the case of species with parental care. The age-structured bit string allows us to study how knowledge is accumulated during life and its influence over the genetic pool of a population after many generations. We use the Penna model to represent the genetic inheritance of each individual. In order to study how the accumulated knowledge influences the survival process, we include it to help individuals to avoid the various death situations. Modifications in the Verhulst factor do not show any special feature due to its random nature. However, by adding years to life as a function of the accumulated knowledge, we observe an improvement of the survival rates while the genetic fitness of the population becomes worse. In this latter case, knowledge becomes more important in the last years of life where individuals are threatened by diseases. Effects of offspring overprotection and differences between individual and social learning can also be observed. Sexual selection as a function of knowledge shows some effects when fidelity is imposed.

Including sugar cane in the agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE-STICS

Science.gov (United States)

Valade, A.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.

2010-12-01

With 4 million ha currently grown for ethanol in Brazil only, approximately half the global bioethanol production in 2005 (Smeets 2008), and a devoted land area expected to expand globally in the years to come, sugar cane is at the heart of the biofuel debate. Indeed, ethanol made from biomass is currently the most widespread option for alternative transportation fuels. It was originally promoted as a carbon neutral energy resource that could bring energy independence to countries and local opportunities to farmers, until attention was drawn to its environmental and socio-economical drawbacks. It is still not clear to which extent it is a solution or a contributor to climate change mitigation. Dynamic Global Vegetation models can help address these issues and quantify the potential impacts of biofuels on ecosystems at scales ranging from on-site to global. The global agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE describes water, carbon and energy exchanges at the soil-atmosphere interface for a limited number of natural and agricultural vegetation types. In order to integrate agricultural management to the simulations and to capture more accurately the specificity of crops' phenology, ORCHIDEE has been coupled with the agronomical model STICS. The resulting crop-oriented vegetation model ORCHIDEE-STICS has been used so far to simulate temperate crops such as wheat, corn and soybean. As a generic ecosystem model, each grid cell can include several vegetation types with their own phenology and management practices, making it suitable to spatial simulations. Here, ORCHIDEE-STICS is altered to include sugar cane as a new agricultural Plant functional Type, implemented and parametrized using the STICS approach. An on-site calibration and validation is then performed based on biomass and flux chamber measurements in several sites in Australia and variables such as LAI, dry weight, heat fluxes and respiration are used to evaluate the ability of the model to simulate the specific

Societal Aging in the Netherlands : Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Logtens, T.; Pruyt, E.; Gijsbers, G.W.

2012-01-01

Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario

Study on Developing Degradation Model for Nuclear Power Plants With Ageing Elements Affected on Operation Parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Yong Won; Lim, Sung Won; Lee, Un Chul; Kim, Man Woong; Kim, Kab; Ryu, Yong Ho

2009-01-01

As a part of development the evaluation system of safety margin effects for degradation of CANDU reactors, it is required that the degradation model represents the distribution of each ageing factor's value during operating year. Unfortunately, it is not easy to make an explicit relation between the RELAP-CANDU parameters and ageing mechanism because of insufficient data and lack of applicable models. So, operating parameter related with ageing is used for range determination of ageing factor. Then, relation between operating parameter and ageing elements is analyzed and ageing constant values for degradation model are determined. Also the other ageing factor is derived for more accurate ageing analysis

Quantitative model of the effects of contamination and space environment on in-flight aging of thermal coatings

Science.gov (United States)

Vanhove, Emilie; Roussel, Jean-François; Remaury, Stéphanie; Faye, Delphine; Guigue, Pascale

2014-09-01

The in-orbit aging of thermo-optical properties of thermal coatings critically impacts both spacecraft thermal balance and heating power consumption. Nevertheless, in-flight thermal coating aging is generally larger than the one measured on ground and the current knowledge does not allow making reliable predictions1. As a result, a large oversizing of thermal control systems is required. To address this issue, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales has developed a low-cost experiment, called THERME, which enables to monitor the in-flight time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of a large variety of coatings, including commonly used coatings and new materials by measuring their temperature. This experiment has been carried out on sunsynchronous spacecrafts for more than 27 years, allowing thus the generation of a very large set of telemetry measurements. The aim of this work was to develop a model able to semi-quantitatively reproduce these data with a restraint number of parameters. The underlying objectives were to better understand the contribution of the different involved phenomena and, later on, to predict the thermal coating aging at end of life. The physical processes modeled include contamination deposition, UV aging of both contamination layers and intrinsic material and atomic oxygen erosion. Efforts were particularly focused on the satellite leading wall as this face is exposed to the highest variations in environmental conditions during the solar cycle. The non-monotonous time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of thermal coatings is shown to be due to a succession of contamination and contaminant erosion by atomic oxygen phased with the solar cycle.

Modelling detrital coral grain-size and age: Insights from sediment abrasion process of Yongle Atoll of South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Zou, X.; Ge, C.; Tan, M.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

Reef islands situated on the rims of atolls are composed almost exclusively of bioclastic materials locally supplied from adjacent coral reefs. Major skeletal component of these islands include coral, coralline algae, mollusks and foraminifera, produced in adjacent reefs. As the island builder, the bioclastic material is the sedimentary products, which also is the point of penetration to decipher the process. The bioclast of coral islands decrease in size with the transportation process. The grain-size provides a proxy record for the abrasion history of the unconsolidated sediment. The 230Th age of coral record the abrasion time. We hereby present a model to calculate the abrasion rate based on the data of 230Th age and grain-size of Yongle Atoll of Xisha Island, South China Sea. The grain size pattern in Yongle Atoll environment have confirm that the coral article diminution behave exponentially. The sediment composition of Yongle Atoll is identified, coral is dominant sediment constituent and the Th230 age is shown to exert an age distribution characteristics of coral detritus. We illustrate this approach by calculate the coral debris age of Xude Atoll, which located near the Yongle Atoll and then by comparing actual measured age and calculated age and to explore the dependence of the model. Observed 230 Th ages are well matched by predicted ages for medium age sediment. A poorer match for young and old sediment may result from some combination of large analytical uncertainties in the detrital ages and inhomogeneous erosion rates within the atoll. Such mismatches emphasize the need for more accurate kinematic models and for sampling strategies that are adapted to atoll-specific geologic and geomorphic conditions. Results presented constitute important new insights into regional sediment abrasion processed and on the evolution of coral atoll islands.

Clarifying the use of aggregated exposures in multilevel models: self-included vs. self-excluded measures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Etsuji Suzuki

Full Text Available Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level and individual (lower level exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure. More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure. In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models.Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models-self-included model and self-excluded model-and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure.Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions.When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model-self-included or self-excluded-is suitable for a given situation

The "Village" model: a consumer-driven approach for aging in place.

Science.gov (United States)

Scharlach, Andrew; Graham, Carrie; Lehning, Amanda

2012-06-01

This study examines the characteristics of the "Village" model, an innovative consumer-driven approach that aims to promote aging in place through a combination of member supports, service referrals, and consumer engagement. Thirty of 42 fully operational Villages completed 2 surveys. One survey examined Villages' member characteristics, membership types, and fee structures. An additional survey collected information about organizational mission, goals, methods of operation, funding sources, challenges, and older adults' roles. Villages provide a variety of support services designed to help members age in place, meet service needs, and promote health and quality of life. Most Villages operate relatively autonomously, relying primarily on member fees and donations. Village members typically are highly involved in organizational development and oversight and provide services to other members in almost half of the Villages. Members predominantly are aged 65 years or older, White, non-Hispanic, homeowners, and have care needs that are slightly lower than those of the elderly U.S. population overall. Villages are a promising model for addressing service needs among middle-class seniors who seek to age in their own homes and communities. Financial sustainability is apt to be a challenge unless Villages secure more stable sources of funding. Organizational sustainability may be promoted through affiliations with social service agencies and other sources of technical and financial assistance. Future evaluation is needed regarding the impact of Villages on elders' ability to age in place as well as the long-term sustainability of the Village model.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Determination of timescales of nitrate contamination by groundwater age models in a complex aquifer system

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, E. H.; Lee, E.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.; Green, C. T.

2017-12-01

Timing and magnitudes of nitrate contamination are determined by various factors like contaminant loading, recharge characteristics and geologic system. Information of an elapsed time since recharged water traveling to a certain outlet location, which is defined as groundwater age, can provide indirect interpretation related to the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system. There are three major methods (apparent ages, lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to date groundwater ages, which differently characterize groundwater mixing resulted by various groundwater flow pathways in a heterogeneous aquifer system. Therefore, in this study, we compared the three age models in a complex aquifer system by using observed age tracer data and reconstructed history of nitrate contamination by long-term source loading. The 3H-3He and CFC-12 apparent ages, which did not consider the groundwater mixing, estimated the most delayed response time and a highest period of the nitrate loading had not reached yet. However, the lumped parameter model could generate more recent loading response than the apparent ages and the peak loading period influenced the water quality. The numerical model could delineate various groundwater mixing components and its different impacts on nitrate dynamics in the complex aquifer system. The different age estimation methods lead to variations in the estimated contaminant loading history, in which the discrepancy in the age estimation was dominantly observed in the complex aquifer system.

Precise age for the Permian-Triassic boundary in South China from high-precision U-Pb geochronology and Bayesian age-depth modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Baresel, Björn; Bucher, Hugo; Brosse, Morgane; Cordey, Fabrice; Guodun, Kuang; Schaltegger, Urs

2017-03-01

This study is based on zircon U-Pb ages of 12 volcanic ash layers and volcanogenic sandstones from two deep water sections with conformable and continuous formational Permian-Triassic boundaries (PTBs) in the Nanpanjiang Basin (South China). Our dates of single, thermally annealed and chemically abraded zircons bracket the PTB in Dongpan and Penglaitan and provide the basis for a first proof-of-concept study utilizing a Bayesian chronology model comparing the three sections of Dongpan, Penglaitan and the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) at Meishan. Our Bayesian modeling demonstrates that the formational boundaries in Dongpan (251.939 ± 0.030 Ma), Penglaitan (251.984 ± 0.031 Ma) and Meishan (251.956 ± 0.035 Ma) are synchronous within analytical uncertainty of ˜ 40 ka. It also provides quantitative evidence that the ages of the paleontologically defined boundaries, based on conodont unitary association zones in Meishan and on macrofaunas in Dongpan, are identical and coincide with the age of the formational boundaries. The age model also confirms the extreme condensation around the PTB in Meishan, which distorts the projection of any stratigraphic points or intervals onto other more expanded sections by means of Bayesian age-depth models. Dongpan and Penglaitan possess significantly higher sediment accumulation rates and thus offer a greater potential for high-resolution studies of environmental proxies and correlations around the PTB than Meishan. This study highlights the power of high-resolution radio-isotopic ages that allow a robust intercalibration of patterns of biotic changes and fluctuating environmental proxies and will help recognizing their global, regional or local significance.

Simple suggestions for including vertical physics in oil spill models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Asaro, Eric; University of Washington, Seatle, WA

2001-01-01

Current models of oil spills include no vertical physics. They neglect the effect of vertical water motions on the transport and concentration of floating oil. Some simple ways to introduce vertical physics are suggested here. The major suggestion is to routinely measure the density stratification of the upper ocean during oil spills in order to develop a database on the effect of stratification. (Author)

Parental concern about vaccine safety in Canadian children partially immunized at age 2: a multivariable model including system level factors.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Shannon E; Schopflocher, Donald P; Vaudry, Wendy

2014-01-01

Children who begin but do not fully complete the recommended series of childhood vaccines by 2 y of age are a much larger group than those who receive no vaccines. While parents who refuse all vaccines typically express concern about vaccine safety, it is critical to determine what influences parents of 'partially' immunized children. This case-control study examined whether parental concern about vaccine safety was responsible for partial immunization, and whether other personal or system-level factors played an important role. A random sample of parents of partially and completely immunized 2 y old children were selected from a Canadian regional immunization registry and completed a postal survey assessing various personal and system-level factors. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and adjusted ORs (aOR) were calculated with logistic regression. While vaccine safety concern was associated with partial immunization (OR 7.338, 95% CI 4.138-13.012), other variables were more strongly associated and reduced the strength of the relationship between concern and partial immunization in multivariable analysis (aOR 2.829, 95% CI 1.151-6.957). Other important factors included perceived disease susceptibility and severity (aOR 4.629, 95% CI 2.017-10.625), residential mobility (aOR 3.908, 95% CI 2.075-7.358), daycare use (aOR 0.310, 95% CI 0.144-0.671), number of needles administered at each visit (aOR 7.734, 95% CI 2.598-23.025) and access to a regular physician (aOR 0.219, 95% CI 0.057-0.846). While concern about vaccine safety may be addressed through educational strategies, this study suggests that additional program and policy-level strategies may positively impact immunization uptake.

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, Uwe, E-mail: uwe.schneider@uzh.ch [Institute of Physics, Science Faculty, University of Zürich, Zürich 8057, Switzerland and Radiotherapy Hirslanden, Uwe Schneider Institute of Radiotherapy, Witellikerstr. 40, Zürich 8032 (Switzerland); Walsh, Linda [Institute of Physics, Science Faculty, University of Zürich, Zürich 8057, Switzerland and BfS - Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Radiation Protection and Health, Neuherberg 85764 (Germany)

2015-08-15

Purpose: Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend the risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Methods: Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. Results: It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin’s disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. Conclusions: The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages

Ageing effects modelling in probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitoi, M.; Turcu, I.; Florescu, G.; Apostol, M.; Farcasiu, M.; Pavelescu, M.

2005-01-01

Ageing management has become a major concern for many responsible organizations during the last years, because as the operating power plants have got older, they may have the tendency to become less safe. The effects of age-related degradation of plant components, systems and structures are necessary to be assessed in order to assure a continuous safe operation of nuclear power plants. The Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is an efficient system analysis method which is used to assess the risk of operation of nuclear power plants. In the assessment of risk level for a plant, most of the PSA studies generally didn't take into account the ageing effects, and uses a time averaged unavailability. By incorporation of ageing effects, the results enable an identification of the components that have the greatest effect on risk if their failure rates increase due to ageing effects modelling. In this paper, it was assessed the impact on Class IV Electrical Power System unavailability of the assumed increase in components failure probability caused by components ageing. The electrical system was chosen for the study because there are a lot of cables and for these types of equipment there is no planned preventive or corrective maintenance, and they are originally designed to reach the end of plant life with an adequate safety margin. To quantify the effects of age-related degradation on components, the linear ageing model was used. In this model, the failure rate of a component λ (t) is expressed as a sum of two independent failure rates, one associated with random failure, λ 0 , and the other associated with failures due to aging α, so: λ(t) = λ 0 + αt. The basic events were coded using a computer code similar to CAFTA, developed in INR Pitesti. For the reliability data allocation for basic events a intern data base was used. This data base contains data from the following generic data bases: IAEA Component Reliability Data for use in PSA, Point Lepreau Component

Models for predicting turnover of residential aged care nurses: a structural equation modelling analysis of secondary data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Fengsong; Newcombe, Peter; Tilse, Cheryl; Wilson, Jill; Tuckett, Anthony

2014-09-01

Nurse turnover in the residential aged care industry is a pressing issue. Researchers have shown ongoing interest in exploring how the factors that are amendable to change in aged care policy, regulation and funding and in organizational procedures (e.g. job demands, coping resources and psychological health of nurses) impact on turnover. However, the findings are mixed. This study tested two theoretical models of turnover to examine the structural relationships among job demands, coping resources, psychological health and turnover of residential aged care nurses. Although many previous studies operationalized turnover as intention to leave, the present study investigated actual turnover by following up with the same individuals over time, and thus provided more accurate predictive models of turnover behaviour. The sample, 239 Australian residential aged care nurses, came from the Nurses and Midwives e-cohort Study. Job demands, coping resources, and psychological health were measured using standardized instruments. Structural equation modelling was used to test the measurement and structural models. Controlling for a number of workforce and individual characteristics, coping resources (measured by job control, supervisor support, and co-worker support) were negatively and directly associated with turnover. Additionally, the findings supported the Job Demand-Control-Support model in that higher coping resources and lower job demands (indicated by psychological demands, physical demands, and effort) were related to better psychological health (measured by vitality, social functioning, role emotional, and mental health), and higher job demands were related to lower coping resources. Findings suggest that aged care policy makers and service providers might consider increasing coping resources available to nurses and minimizing job demands of care work to reduce turnover and improve nurses' psychological health. Moreover, findings from this Australian study may provide

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Mathematics ul. Morska 81-87, Gdynia 81-225 Poland (Poland)

2016-06-08

An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive “m out of n: F” is presented as well.

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

2016-01-01

An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive “m out of n: F” is presented as well.

[MEDICAL SOCIAL MODELING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ACTIVE AGING IN KAZAKHSTAN].

Science.gov (United States)

Benberin, V V; Akhetov, A A; Tanbaeva, G Z

2015-01-01

The article discusses a new model for active ageing in Republic of Kazakhstan with participation the state, population and medical social services. Achieving active longevity will lead to positive trends in the development of human capital of the state, because it enables to use experience and knowledge of senior generation in enhancing the effectiveness of socio-economic transformation in health care. The study was carried out on the base of the Central clinical hospital of the President's affairs administration in Republic of Kazakhstan, with the participation of 147 admitted patients of elderly and senile age.

Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mice as a model system for glomerular aging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Schumacher (Björn); V. Bartels (Valerie); P. Frommolt (Peter); B. Habermann (Bianca); F. Braun (Fabian); J.L. Schultze (Joachim); M. Roodbergen (Marianne); J.H.J. Hoeijmakers (Jan); P. Nürnberg (Peter); M.E.T. Dollé (Martijn); T. Benzing (Thomas); R.-U. Müller (Roman-Ulrich); C.E. Kurschat (Christine)

2013-01-01

textabstractBackground: Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome

Development of an Age- and Gender-specific Model for Strontium Metabolism in Humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shagina, N. B.; Degteva, M. O.; Tolstykh, E. I.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a development of a new biokinetic model for strontium, which accounts for age and gender differences of metabolism in humans. This model was developed based on the long-term follow-up of the residents living on the banks of the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia) contaminated with 89,90Sr in 1950-1956. The new model uses the structure of ICRP model for strontium but model parameters have been estimated to account for age, gender and population differences in strontium retention and elimination. Estimates of age- and gender-specific model parameters were derived from (a) the results of long-term measurements of 90Sr-body burden for the Techa River population; (b) experimental studies of calcium and strontium metabolism in humans and (c) non-radiological data regarding bone metabolism (mineral content of the body, bone turnover, etc). As a result, the new model satisfactorily describes data on long-term retention of 90Sr in residents of the Techa River settlements of all ages and both genders and also data from studies during the period of global fallout in the UK and the USA and experimental data on strontium retention in humans. The new model can be used to calculate dose from 89,90Sr for the Techa River residents and also for other populations with similar parameters of skeletal maturation and also for other populations with similar parameters of skeletal maturation and involution. (Author) 27 refs

Local Stability Analysis of an Infection-Age Mathematical Model for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Timothy

1Department of Mathematics/Statistics/Computer Science, Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi, ... ABSTRACT: An infection age structured mathematical model for tuberculosis disease ...... its applications to optimal vaccination strategies.

Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

1985-01-01

This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the 131 I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ 1 t) - exp(-μ 2 t)] (μCi), where μ 1 = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

Mediational Role of Age of Onset in Gambling Disorder, a Path Modeling Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Murcia, Susana; Granero, Roser; Tárrega, Salomé; Angulo, Ariadna; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Arcelus, Jon; Fagundo, Ana B; Aymamí, Neus; Moragas, Laura; Sauvaget, Anne; Grall-Bronnec, Marie; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Menchón, José M

2016-03-01

The aim of the study is to assess a mediational pathway, which includes patients' sex, personality traits, age of onset of gambling disorder (GD) and gambling-related variables. The South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Symptom Checklist (SCL-90-R) and the Temperament and Character Inventory-R were administered to a large sample of 1632 outpatients attending a specialized outpatient GD unit. Sociodemographic variables were also recorded. A Structural Equation Model was adjusted to assess the pathway. Age of onset mediated between personality profile (novelty seeking and self-transcendence) and GD severity and depression symptoms (measured by SCL-90-R). Sex had a direct effect on GD onset and depression symptoms: men initiated the GD earlier and reported fewer depression symptoms. Age of onset is a mediating variable between sex, personality traits, GD severity and depression symptoms. These empirical results provide new evidence about the underlying etiological process of dysfunctional behaviors related to gambling, and may help to guide the development of more effective treatment and prevention programs aimed at high-risk groups such as young men with high levels of novelty seeking and self-transcendence.

C. elegans model identifies genetic modifiers of alpha-synuclein inclusion formation during aging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tjakko J van Ham

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Inclusions in the brain containing alpha-synuclein are the pathological hallmark of Parkinson's disease, but how these inclusions are formed and how this links to disease is poorly understood. We have developed a C. elegans model that makes it possible to monitor, in living animals, the formation of alpha-synuclein inclusions. In worms of old age, inclusions contain aggregated alpha- synuclein, resembling a critical pathological feature. We used genome-wide RNA interference to identify processes involved in inclusion formation, and identified 80 genes that, when knocked down, resulted in a premature increase in the number of inclusions. Quality control and vesicle-trafficking genes expressed in the ER/Golgi complex and vesicular compartments were overrepresented, indicating a specific role for these processes in alpha-synuclein inclusion formation. Suppressors include aging-associated genes, such as sir-2.1/SIRT1 and lagr-1/LASS2. Altogether, our data suggest a link between alpha-synuclein inclusion formation and cellular aging, likely through an endomembrane-related mechanism. The processes and genes identified here present a framework for further study of the disease mechanism and provide candidate susceptibility genes and drug targets for Parkinson's disease and other alpha-synuclein related disorders.

Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

2017-11-18

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

Groundwater age and lifetime expectancy modelling approach for site characterization and performance assessment of radwaste repository in clay formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cornaton, F.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

2010-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. A deep geological repository of high level and long lived radwaste requires an understanding of the far field and near field groundwater flow and of the transport properties, at actual and future climatic conditions. Andra, French National radioactive waste management Agency, is developing since last 15 years an integrated multi-scale hydrogeological model of whole Paris basin of 200000 km 2 of area (regional scale) to produce a regional flow field associated to groundwater behavior. It includes locally the Meuse/Haute Marne clay site of about 250 km 2 of area in the eastern part of the Paris basin that was chosen for the emplacement of a repository. The Callovo-Oxfordian host formation is a clay layer characterized by a very low permeability of the order 10 -14 m/s, a mean thickness of 130 m at about 500 m depth, and is embedded by calcareous aquifer formations (Dogger and Oxfordian). The hydrogeological conceptual model is based on stratigraphic and petro-physic modeling of the Paris basin and is accounting for the structural, geological, hydrogeological and geochemical data in an integrated way. This model represents 27 hydrogeological units at the scale of the Paris Basin, and it is refined at the scale of the sector to represent 27 different layers that range in age from the Trias to the Portlandian. The finite element flow and transport simulator Ground Water (GW) is used to solve for groundwater flow at steady-state in a 3 Million elements model, considering current climatic conditions. The model is calibrated against about 1250 hydraulic head measurements, and results in maximum absolute hydraulic head differences of 20 meters at the regional scale and 3 meters at the local scale. The calibrated reference model includes transmissive major faults as well as structures acting as barrier to flow. Groundwater age (the time elapsed since recharge) and lifetime expectancy (the time remaining prior to exit) are

Systemic Mesenchymal Stromal Cell Transplantation Prevents Functional Bone Loss in a Mouse Model of Age-Related Osteoporosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiernan, Jeffrey; Hu, Sally; Grynpas, Marc D; Davies, John E; Stanford, William L

2016-05-01

Age-related osteoporosis is driven by defects in the tissue-resident mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs), a heterogeneous population of musculoskeletal progenitors that includes skeletal stem cells. MSC decline leads to reduced bone formation, causing loss of bone volume and the breakdown of bony microarchitecture crucial to trabecular strength. Furthermore, the low-turnover state precipitated by MSC loss leads to low-quality bone that is unable to perform remodeling-mediated maintenance--replacing old damaged bone with new healthy tissue. Using minimally expanded exogenous MSCs injected systemically into a mouse model of human age-related osteoporosis, we show long-term engraftment and markedly increased bone formation. This led to improved bone quality and turnover and, importantly, sustained microarchitectural competence. These data establish proof of concept that MSC transplantation may be used to prevent or treat human age-related osteoporosis. This study shows that a single dose of minimally expanded mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) injected systemically into a mouse model of human age-related osteoporosis display long-term engraftment and prevent the decline in bone formation, bone quality, and microarchitectural competence. This work adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that the decline of MSCs associated with age-related osteoporosis is a major transformative event in the progression of the disease. Furthermore, it establishes proof of concept that MSC transplantation may be a viable therapeutic strategy to treat or prevent human age-related osteoporosis. ©AlphaMed Press.

Hydromechanical modeling of clay rock including fracture damage

Science.gov (United States)

Asahina, D.; Houseworth, J. E.; Birkholzer, J. T.

2012-12-01

Argillaceous rock typically acts as a flow barrier, but under certain conditions significant and potentially conductive fractures may be present. Fracture formation is well-known to occur in the vicinity of underground excavations in a region known as the excavation disturbed zone. Such problems are of particular importance for low-permeability, mechanically weak rock such as clays and shales because fractures can be relatively transient as a result of fracture self-sealing processes. Perhaps not as well appreciated is the fact that natural fractures can form in argillaceous rock as a result of hydraulic overpressure caused by phenomena such as disequlibrium compaction, changes in tectonic stress, and mineral dehydration. Overpressure conditions can cause hydraulic fracturing if the fluid pressure leads to tensile effective stresses that exceed the tensile strength of the material. Quantitative modeling of this type of process requires coupling between hydrogeologic processes and geomechanical processes including fracture initiation and propagation. Here we present a computational method for three-dimensional, hydromechanical coupled processes including fracture damage. Fractures are represented as discrete features in a fracture network that interact with a porous rock matrix. Fracture configurations are mapped onto an unstructured, three-dimensonal, Voronoi grid, which is based on a random set of spatial points. Discrete fracture networks (DFN) are represented by the connections of the edges of a Voronoi cells. This methodology has the advantage that fractures can be more easily introduced in response to coupled hydro-mechanical processes and generally eliminates several potential issues associated with the geometry of DFN and numerical gridding. A geomechanical and fracture-damage model is developed here using the Rigid-Body-Spring-Network (RBSN) numerical method. The hydrogelogic and geomechanical models share the same geometrical information from a 3D Voronoi

Description of cervical cancer mortality in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Objective To correct cervical cancer mortality rates for death cause certification problems in Belgium and to describe the corrected trends (1954-1997) using Bayesian models. Method Cervical cancer (cervix uteri (CVX), corpus uteri (CRP), not otherwise specified (NOS) uterus cancer and other very rare uterus cancer (OTH) mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality database together with population data for Belgium and the Netherlands. Different ICD (International Classification of Diseases) were used over time for death cause certification. In the Netherlands, the proportion of not-otherwise specified uterine cancer deaths was small over large periods and therefore internal reallocation could be used to estimate the corrected rates cervical cancer mortality. In Belgium, the proportion of improperly defined uterus deaths was high. Therefore, the age-specific proportions of uterus cancer deaths that are probably of cervical origin for the Netherlands was applied to Belgian uterus cancer deaths to estimate the corrected number of cervix cancer deaths (corCVX). A Bayesian loglinear Poisson-regression model was performed to disentangle the separate effects of age, period and cohort. Results The corrected age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased regularly from 9.2/100 000 in the mid 1950s to 2.5/100,000 in the late 1990s. Inclusion of age, period and cohort into the models were required to obtain an adequate fit. Cervical cancer mortality increases with age, declines over calendar period and varied irregularly by cohort. Conclusion Mortality increased with ageing and declined over time in most age-groups, but varied irregularly by birth cohort. In global, with some discrete exceptions, mortality decreased for successive generations up to the cohorts born in the 1930s. This decline stopped for cohorts born in the 1940s and thereafter. For the youngest cohorts, even a tendency of increasing risk of dying from cervical cancer could be observed, reflecting

Skeletal Aging and Osteoporosis Biomechanics and Mechanobiology

CERN Document Server

2013-01-01

The focus of this book is on mechanical aspects of skeletal fragility related to aging and osteoporosis. Topics include: Age-related changes in trabecular structure and strength; age-related changes in cortical material properties; age-related changes in whole-bone structure; predicting bone strength and fracture risk using image-based methods and finite element analysis; animal models of osteoporosis and aging; age-related changes in skeletal mechano responsiveness; exercise and physical interventions for osteoporosis.

Direct-phase-variable model of a synchronous reluctance motor including all slot and winding harmonics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obe, Emeka S.; Binder, A.

2011-01-01

A detailed model in direct-phase variables of a synchronous reluctance motor operating at mains voltage and frequency is presented. The model includes the stator and rotor slot openings, the actual winding layout and the reluctance rotor geometry. Hence, all mmf and permeance harmonics are taken into account. It is seen that non-negligible harmonics introduced by slots are present in the inductances computed by the winding function procedure. These harmonics are usually ignored in d-q models. The machine performance is simulated in the stator reference frame to depict the difference between this new direct-phase model including all harmonics and the conventional rotor reference frame d-q model. Saturation is included by using a polynomial fitting the variation of d-axis inductance with stator current obtained by finite-element software FEMAG DC (registered) . The detailed phase-variable model can yield torque pulsations comparable to those obtained from finite elements while the d-q model cannot.

The Business of Anti-Aging Science.

Science.gov (United States)

de Magalhães, João Pedro; Stevens, Michael; Thornton, Daniel

2017-11-01

Age-related conditions are the leading causes of death and health-care costs. Reducing the rate of aging would have enormous medical and financial benefits. Myriad genes and pathways are known to regulate aging in model organisms, fostering a new crop of anti-aging companies. Approaches range from drug discovery efforts to big-data methods and direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies. Challenges and pitfalls of commercialization include reliance on findings from short-lived model organisms, poor biological understanding of aging, and hurdles in performing clinical trials for aging. A large number of potential aging-associated interventions and targets exist, but given the long validation times only a small fraction can be explored for clinical applications. If even one company succeeds, however, the impact will be huge. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yanyan; Hu, Jia; Wu, Wei; Liu, Shuyun; Li, Mei; Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei; Ye, Linxiang; Wang, Qi; Zhou, Yikai

2016-01-01

Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yanyan [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Hu, Jia [Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu (China); Wu, Wei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Liu, Shuyun [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Li, Mei [Hanyang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Ye, Linxiang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Wang, Qi, E-mail: lwq95@126.com [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhou, Yikai, E-mail: zhouyk@mails.tjmu.edu.cn [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

2016-01-15

Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

Defining successful aging: a tangible or elusive concept?

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Peter; Kelly, Norene; Kahana, Boaz; Kahana, Eva; Willcox, Bradley J; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W

2015-02-01

Everyone wants to age successfully; however, the definition and criteria of successful aging remain vague for laypersons, researchers, and policymakers in spite of decades of research on the topic. This paper highlights work of scholars who made significant theoretical contributions to the topic. A thorough review and evaluation of the literature on successful aging was undertaken. Our review includes early gerontological definitions of successful aging and related concepts. Historical perspectives reach back to philosophical and religious texts, and more recent approaches have focused on both process- and outcome-oriented models of successful aging. We elaborate on Baltes and Baltes' theory of selective optimization with compensation [Baltes, P. B., & Baltes, M. M. (1990a). Psychological perspectives on successful aging: The model of selective optimization with compensation. In P. B. Baltes & M. M. Baltes (Eds.), Successful aging: Perspectives from the behavioral sciences (pp. 1-34). United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press], Kahana and Kahana's preventive and corrective proactivity model [Kahana, E., & Kahana, B. (1996). Conceptual and empirical advances in understanding aging well through proactive adaptation. In V. Bengtson (Ed.), Adulthood and aging: Research on continuities and discontinuities (pp. 18-40). New York: Springer], and Rowe and Kahn's model of successful aging [Rowe, J. W., & Kahn, R. L. (1998). Successful aging. New York: Pantheon Books], outlining their commonalities and differences. Additional views on successful aging emphasize subjective versus objective perceptions of successful aging and relate successful aging to studies on healthy and exceptional longevity. Additional theoretical work is needed to better understand successful aging, including the way it can encompass disability and death and dying. The extent of rapid social and technological change influencing views on successful aging also deserves more consideration. © The Author

Modelling antecedents of blood donation motivation among non-donors of varying age and education.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, K P H; Abraham, C; Ruiter, R A C; Veldhuizen, I J T; Dehing, C J G; Bos, A E R; Schaalma, H P

2009-02-01

Understanding blood donation motivation among non-donors is prerequisite to effective recruitment. Two studies explored the psychological antecedents of blood donation motivation and the generalisability of a model of donation motivation across groups differing in age and educational level. An older well-educated population and a younger less well-educated population were sampled. The studies assessed the role of altruism, fear of blood/needles and donation-specific cognitions including attitudes and normative beliefs derived from an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Across both samples, results showed that affective attitude, subjective norm, descriptive norm, and moral norm were the most important correlates of blood donation intentions. Self-efficacy was more important among the younger less well-educated group. Altruism was related to donation motivation but only indirectly through moral norm. Similarly, fear of blood/needles only had an indirect effect on motivation through affective attitude and self-efficacy. Additional analyses with the combined data set found no age or education moderation effects, suggesting that this core model of donation-specific cognitions can be used to inform future practical interventions recruiting new blood donors in the general population.

Evolutive Masing model, cycling plasticity, ageing and memory effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sidoroff, F.

1987-01-01

Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed (Fougeres, Sidoroff, Vincent and Waille 1985) to combine - the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, - the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, - a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, ageing). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour. (orig./GL)

An R package for fitting age, period and cohort models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriano Decarli

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present the R implementation of a GLIM macro which fits age-period-cohort model following Osmond and Gardner. In addition to the estimates of the corresponding model, owing to the programming capability of R as an object oriented language, methods for printing, plotting and summarizing the results are provided. Furthermore, the researcher has fully access to the output of the main function (apc which returns all the models fitted within the function. It is so possible to critically evaluate the goodness of fit of the resulting model.

Integrated model of port oil piping transportation system safety including operating environment threats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kołowrocki Krzysztof

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an integrated general model of complex technical system, linking its multistate safety model and the model of its operation process including operating environment threats and considering variable at different operation states its safety structures and its components safety parameters. Under the assumption that the system has exponential safety function, the safety characteristics of the port oil piping transportation system are determined.

Integrated model of port oil piping transportation system safety including operating environment threats

OpenAIRE

Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Kuligowska, Ewa; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

2017-01-01

The paper presents an integrated general model of complex technical system, linking its multistate safety model and the model of its operation process including operating environment threats and considering variable at different operation states its safety structures and its components safety parameters. Under the assumption that the system has exponential safety function, the safety characteristics of the port oil piping transportation system are determined.

Efficient Workflows for Curation of Heterogeneous Data Supporting Modeling of U-Nb Alloy Aging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Logan Timothy; Hackenberg, Robert Errol

2016-01-01

These are slides from a presentation summarizing a graduate research associate's summer project. The following topics are covered in these slides: data challenges in materials, aging in U-Nb Alloys, Building an Aging Model, Different Phase Trans. in U-Nb, the Challenge, Storing Materials Data, Example Data Source, Organizing Data: What is a Schema?, What does a 'XML Schema' look like?, Our Data Schema: Nice and Simple, Storing Data: Materials Data Curation System (MDCS), Problem with MDCS: Slow Data Entry, Getting Literature into MDCS, Staging Data in Excel Document, Final Result: MDCS Records, Analyzing Image Data, Process for Making TTT Diagram, Bottleneck Number 1: Image Analysis, Fitting a TTP Boundary, Fitting a TTP Curve: Comparable Results, How Does it Compare to Our Data?, Image Analysis Workflow, Curating Hardness Records, Hardness Data: Two Key Decisions, Before Peak Age? - Automation, Interactive Viz, Which Transformation?, Microstructure-Informed Model, Tracking the Entire Process, General Problem with Property Models, Pinyon: Toolkit for Managing Model Creation, Tracking Individual Decisions, Jupyter: Docs and Code in One File, Hardness Analysis Workflow, Workflow for Aging Models, and conclusions.

Efficient Workflows for Curation of Heterogeneous Data Supporting Modeling of U-Nb Alloy Aging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ward, Logan Timothy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hackenberg, Robert Errol [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-08-31

These are slides from a presentation summarizing a graduate research associate's summer project. The following topics are covered in these slides: data challenges in materials, aging in U-Nb Alloys, Building an Aging Model, Different Phase Trans. in U-Nb, the Challenge, Storing Materials Data, Example Data Source, Organizing Data: What is a Schema?, What does a "XML Schema" look like?, Our Data Schema: Nice and Simple, Storing Data: Materials Data Curation System (MDCS), Problem with MDCS: Slow Data Entry, Getting Literature into MDCS, Staging Data in Excel Document, Final Result: MDCS Records, Analyzing Image Data, Process for Making TTT Diagram, Bottleneck Number 1: Image Analysis, Fitting a TTP Boundary, Fitting a TTP Curve: Comparable Results, How Does it Compare to Our Data?, Image Analysis Workflow, Curating Hardness Records, Hardness Data: Two Key Decisions, Before Peak Age? - Automation, Interactive Viz, Which Transformation?, Microstructure-Informed Model, Tracking the Entire Process, General Problem with Property Models, Pinyon: Toolkit for Managing Model Creation, Tracking Individual Decisions, Jupyter: Docs and Code in One File, Hardness Analysis Workflow, Workflow for Aging Models, and conclusions.

Multi-mutational model for cancer based on age-time patterns of radiation effects: 2. Biological aspects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendelsohn, M.L.; Pierce, P.A.

1997-09-04

Biological properties of relevance when modeling cancers induced in the atom bomb survivors include the wide distribution of the induced cancers across all organs, their biological indistinguishability from background cancers, their rates being proportional to background cancer rates, their rates steadily increasing over at least 50 years as the survivors age, and their radiation dose response being linear. We have successfully described this array of properties with a modified Armitage-Doll model using 5 to 6 somatic mutations, no intermediate growth, and the dose-related replacement of any one of these time-driven mutations by a radiation-induced mutation. Such a model is contrasted to prevailing models that use fewer mutations combined with intervening growth. While the rationale and effectiveness of our model is compelling for carcinogenesis in the atom bomb survivors, the lack of a promotional component may limit the generality of the model for other types of human carcinogenesis.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

Age-Dependence and Aging-Dependence: Neuronal Loss and Lifespan in a C. elegans Model of Parkinson's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Apfeld, Javier; Fontana, Walter

2017-12-23

It is often assumed, but not established, that the major neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, are not just age-dependent (their incidence changes with time) but actually aging-dependent (their incidence is coupled to the process that determines lifespan). To determine a dependence on the aging process requires the joint probability distribution of disease onset and lifespan. For human Parkinson's disease, such a joint distribution is not available, because the disease cuts lifespan short. To acquire a joint distribution, we resorted to an established C. elegans model of Parkinson's disease in which the loss of dopaminergic neurons is not fatal. We find that lifespan is not correlated with the loss of individual neurons. Therefore, neuronal loss is age-dependent and aging-independent. We also find that a lifespan-extending intervention into insulin/IGF1 signaling accelerates the loss of specific dopaminergic neurons, while leaving death and neuronal loss times uncorrelated. This suggests that distinct and compartmentalized instances of the same genetically encoded insulin/IGF1 signaling machinery act independently to control neurodegeneration and lifespan in C. elegans . Although the human context might well be different, our study calls attention to the need to maintain a rigorous distinction between age-dependence and aging-dependence.

Enhanced UWB Radio Channel Model for Short-Range Communication Scenarios Including User Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Nguyen, Tuan Hung; Eggers, Patrick Claus F.

2005-01-01

channel model represents an enhancement of the existing IEEE 802.15.3a/4a PAN channel model, where antenna and user-proximity effects are not included. Our investigations showed that significant variations of the received wideband power and time-delay signal clustering are possible due the human body...

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

Modeling and analysis of aging behavior of concrete structures in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashid, J.Y.R.; James, R.J.; Dunham, R.S. [ANATECH (United States)

2011-07-01

As nuclear power plants approach the end of their original design life and begin to transition to the life extension phase, consideration has to be given to the effects of structural aging when evaluating the extended operation of reinforced or pre-stressed concrete structures. The behavior of concrete is highly nonlinear, having low tensile strength, shear stiffness and strength that depend on crack widths, and a confinement-dependent compressive elasto-plasticity. A concrete material model is described having the appropriate capabilities required for evaluating structural aging. The model treats reinforced concrete as a three-phase composite: plain concrete material as a three-dimensional continuum phase, steel reinforcement (rebar) as a uni-directional phase, and a rebar-concrete interaction phase. Structural aging is defined as the combined effects of time dependent material properties degradation and service induced changes in loading and operational conditions. Three broad categories of structural aging, and the interaction between them, are considered: 1) Aging effects due to expected time dependent changes in material properties, 2) Aging effects due to unexpected time dependent material degradation, and 3) Aging effects due to operational environment and loading. Example analyses are presented which illustrate the value of using advanced modeling and simulation in evaluating expected and unusual structural behavior. This is particularly important for safety structures that are approaching the end of their design life and are facing the prospect of re-licensing for extended operation

The zebrafish as a gerontology model in nervous system aging, disease, and repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Houcke, Jessie; De Groef, Lies; Dekeyster, Eline; Moons, Lieve

2015-11-01

Considering the increasing number of elderly in the world's population today, developing effective treatments for age-related pathologies is one of the biggest challenges in modern medical research. Age-related neurodegeneration, in particular, significantly impacts important sensory, motor, and cognitive functions, seriously constraining life quality of many patients. Although our understanding of the causal mechanisms of aging has greatly improved in recent years, animal model systems still have much to tell us about this complex process. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) have gained enormous popularity for this research topic over the past decade, since their life span is relatively short but, like humans, they are still subject to gradual aging. In addition, the extensive characterization of its well-conserved molecular and cellular physiology makes the zebrafish an excellent model to unravel the underlying mechanisms of aging, disease, and repair. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the progress made in zebrafish gerontology, with special emphasis on nervous system aging. We review the evidence that classic hallmarks of aging can also be recognized within this small vertebrate, both at the molecular and cellular level. Moreover, we illustrate the high level of similarity with age-associated human pathologies through a survey of the functional deficits that arise as zebrafish age. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cerebellar abnormalities contribute to disability including cognitive impairment in multiple sclerosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin Weier

Full Text Available The cerebellum is known to be involved not only in motor but also cognitive and affective processes. Structural changes in the cerebellum in relation to cognitive dysfunction are an emerging topic in the field of neuro-psychiatric disorders. In Multiple Sclerosis (MS cerebellar motor and cognitive dysfunction occur in parallel, early in the onset of the disease, and the cerebellum is one of the predilection sites of atrophy. This study is aimed at determining the relationship between cerebellar volumes, clinical cerebellar signs, cognitive functioning and fatigue in MS. Cerebellar volumetry was conducted using T1-weighted MPRAGE magnetic resonance imaging of 172 MS patients. All patients underwent a clinical and brief neuropsychological assessment (information processing speed, working memory, including fatigue testing. Patients with and without cerebellar signs differed significantly regarding normalized cerebellar total volume (nTCV, normalized brain volume (nBV and whole brain T2 lesion volume (LV. Patients with cerebellar dysfunction likewise performed worse in cognitive tests. A regression analysis indicated that age and nTCV explained 26.3% of the variance in SDMT (symbol digit modalities test performance. However, only age, T2 LV and nBV remained predictors in the full model (r(2 = 0.36. The full model for the prediction of PASAT (Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test scores (r(2 = 0.23 included age, cerebellar and T2 LV. In the case of fatigue, only age and nBV (r(2 = 0.17 emerged as significant predictors. These data support the view that cerebellar abnormalities contribute to disability, including cognitive impairment in MS. However, this contribution does not seem to be independent of, and may even be dominated by wider spread MS pathology as reflected by nBV and T2 LV.

DNA damage, metabolism and aging in pro-inflammatory T cells: Rheumatoid arthritis as a model system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yinyin; Goronzy, Jörg J; Weyand, Cornelia M

2018-05-01

The aging process is the major driver of morbidity and mortality, steeply increasing the risk to succumb to cancer, cardiovascular disease, infection and neurodegeneration. Inflammation is a common denominator in age-related pathologies, identifying the immune system as a gatekeeper in aging overall. Among immune cells, T cells are long-lived and exposed to intense replication pressure, making them sensitive to aging-related abnormalities. In successful T cell aging, numbers of naïve cells, repertoire diversity and activation thresholds are preserved as long as possible; in maladaptive T cell aging, protective T cell functions decline and pro-inflammatory effector cells are enriched. Here, we review in the model system of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) how maladaptive T cell aging renders the host susceptible to chronic, tissue-damaging inflammation. In T cells from RA patients, known to be about 20years pre-aged, three interconnected functional domains are altered: DNA damage repair, metabolic activity generating energy and biosynthetic precursor molecules, and shaping of plasma membranes to promote T cell motility. In each of these domains, key molecules and pathways have now been identified, including the glycolytic enzymes PFKFB3 and G6PD; the DNA repair molecules ATM, DNA-PKcs and MRE11A; and the podosome marker protein TKS5. Some of these molecules may help in defining targetable pathways to slow the T cell aging process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

S5-4: Formal Modeling of Affordance in Human-Included Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Namhun Kim

2012-10-01

Full Text Available In spite of it being necessary for humans to consider modeling, analysis, and control of human-included systems, it has been considered a challenging problem because of the critical role of humans in complex systems and of humans' capability of executing unanticipated actions–both beneficial and detrimental ones. Thus, to provide systematic approaches to modeling human actions as a part of system behaviors, a formal modeling framework for human-involved systems in which humans play a controlling role based on their perceptual information is presented. The theory of affordance provides definitions of human actions and their associated properties; Finite State Automata (FSA based modeling is capable of mapping nondeterministic humans into computable components in the system representation. In this talk, we investigate the role of perception in human actions in the system operation and examine the representation of perceptual elements in affordance-based modeling formalism. The proposed framework is expected to capture the natural ways in which humans participate in the system as part of its operation. A human-machine cooperative manufacturing system control example and a human agent simulation example will be introduced for the illustrative purposes at the end of the presentation.

Fix my child: The importance of including siblings in clinical assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Farnfield, Steve

2017-07-01

This study examined concordance in the attachment strategies of school-aged siblings with reference to environmental risk in terms of poverty and maltreatment. It also investigated the effect of child maltreatment and maternal mental illness on children's psychosocial functioning in terms of the Dynamic-Maturational Model of Attachment and Adaptation (DMM) including unresolved trauma and the DMM Depressed modifier. The attachment strategies of 30 sibling pairs, aged 5-14 years, were assessed using the School-age Assessment of Attachment (SAA). Unlike most previous studies, this study included siblings from large families of two to six children. The main finding was that as environmental risk increases, the diversity of sibling attachment strategies decreases with greater recourse to the DMM Type A3-6 and A/C strategies. Unlike previous studies, the highest level of concordance was found in sibling pairs with the opposite gender. Boys whose mothers had a history of mental illness were significantly more likely than girls to be assessed with the DMM-depression modifier. As danger increases, children in the same family experience more of the same childhood. Further research should focus on single case, intra-familial studies to build a systemic model of the shared environment. Research should also evaluate the effects of environmental risk compared with size of the sibling group on children's attachment strategies. The clinical implications point to the importance of assessing all children in the family using a model built around functional formulation rather than diagnosing the symptoms of a particular child.

Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

2007-02-25

A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

Modeling of the Direct Current Generator Including the Magnetic Saturation and Temperature Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso J. Mercado-Samur

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper the inclusion of temperature effect on the field resistance on the direct current generator model DC1A, which is valid to stability studies is proposed. First, the linear generator model is presented, after the effect of magnetic saturation and the change in the resistance value due to temperature produced by the field current are included. The comparison of experimental results and model simulations to validate the model is used. A direct current generator model which is a better representation of the generator is obtained. Visual comparison between simulations and experimental results shows the success of the proposed model, because it presents the lowest error of the compared models. The accuracy of the proposed model is observed via Modified Normalized Sum of Squared Errors index equal to 3.8979%.

Characterizing Cognitive Aging in Humans with Links to Animal Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gene E Alexander

2012-09-01

Full Text Available With the population of older adults expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades, it has become increasingly important to advance research efforts to elucidate the mechanisms associated with cognitive aging, with the ultimate goal of developing effective interventions and prevention therapies. Although there has been a vast research literature on the use of cognitive tests to evaluate the effects of aging and age-related neurodegenerative disease, the need for a set of standardized measures to characterize the cognitive profiles specific to healthy aging has been widely recognized. Here we present a review of selected methods and approaches that have been applied in human research studies to evaluate the effects of aging on cognition, including executive function, memory, processing speed, language, and visuospatial function. The effects of healthy aging on each of these cognitive domains are discussed with examples from cognitive/experimental and clinical/neuropsychological approaches. Further, we consider those measures that have clear conceptual and methodological links to tasks currently in use for non-human animal studies of aging, as well as those that have the potential for translation to animal aging research. Having a complementary set of measures to assess the cognitive profiles of healthy aging across species provides a unique opportunity to enhance research efforts for cross-sectional, longitudinal, and intervention studies of cognitive aging. Taking a cross-species, translational approach will help to advance cognitive aging research, leading to a greater understanding of associated neurobiological mechanisms with the potential for developing effective interventions and prevention therapies for age-related cognitive decline.

BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Glont, Mihai; Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Malik-Sheriff, Rahuman S; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Le Novère, Nicolas; Hermjakob, Henning

2018-01-04

BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

Science.gov (United States)

Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert

2011-01-01

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.

Integrated age-structured length-based stock assessment model with uncertain process variances, structural uncertainty and environmental covariates: case of Central Baltic herring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäntyniemi, Samu; Uusitalo, Laura; Peltonen, Heikki

2013-01-01

We developed a generic, age-structured, state-space stock assessment model that can be used as a platform for including information elicited from stakeholders. The model tracks the mean size-at-age and then uses it to explain rates of natural and fishing mortality. The fishery selectivity is divided...... to two components, which makes it possible to model the active seeking of the fleet for certain sizes of fish, as well as the selectivity of the gear itself. The model can account for uncertainties that are not currently accounted for in state-of-the-art models for integrated assessments: (i) The form...... of the stock–recruitment function is considered uncertain and is accounted for by using Bayesian model averaging. (ii) In addition to recruitment variation, process variation in natural mortality, growth parameters, and fishing mortality can also be treated as uncertain parameters...

Advertising Challenges in the Ageing Society: The Preferences of the Regular Gym-goers towards Age Portrayals in Advertising

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Duduciuc

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Research studies from various disciplines including sociology, psychology, social psychology, marketing, advertising and media research have analyzed the representation of old-aged people in advertising, as well as the consumers’ habits of a targeted population aged 50 and over. Despite the availability of data on inappropriate depiction of seniors in media (including advertising, little research has been done so far to understand which are the seniors’ preferences regarding their portrayal in certain advertising campaigns. The aim of the current study was to explore the preferences of middle-aged adults toward the representation of old age in advertising. Specifically, we tested whether there is a relationship between the preferences of Romanians gym-goers (45-60 years on age-related advertising and their body image. The results showed that the middle-aged adults prefer models that do not necessary match their age, that is the young older model. Our data also revealed that the choices for age representations in advertising were not associated with respondents’ body image emotions in certain contexts or situations. No significant relationship between body image and preference towards age-related representations in advertising was obtained. Additionally, the analysis of the data also revealed that compared to men, women are more likely to express displeasure with their body weights, and they believe the body image strongly impacts their self-esteem during life.

A thermal conductivity model for nanofluids including effect of the temperature-dependent interfacial layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sitprasert, Chatcharin; Dechaumphai, Pramote; Juntasaro, Varangrat

2009-01-01

The interfacial layer of nanoparticles has been recently shown to have an effect on the thermal conductivity of nanofluids. There is, however, still no thermal conductivity model that includes the effects of temperature and nanoparticle size variations on the thickness and consequently on the thermal conductivity of the interfacial layer. In the present work, the stationary model developed by Leong et al. (J Nanopart Res 8:245-254, 2006) is initially modified to include the thermal dispersion effect due to the Brownian motion of nanoparticles. This model is called the 'Leong et al.'s dynamic model'. However, the Leong et al.'s dynamic model over-predicts the thermal conductivity of nanofluids in the case of the flowing fluid. This suggests that the enhancement in the thermal conductivity of the flowing nanofluids due to the increase in temperature does not come from the thermal dispersion effect. It is more likely that the enhancement in heat transfer of the flowing nanofluids comes from the temperature-dependent interfacial layer effect. Therefore, the Leong et al.'s stationary model is again modified to include the effect of temperature variation on the thermal conductivity of the interfacial layer for different sizes of nanoparticles. This present model is then evaluated and compared with the other thermal conductivity models for the turbulent convective heat transfer in nanofluids along a uniformly heated tube. The results show that the present model is more general than the other models in the sense that it can predict both the temperature and the volume fraction dependence of the thermal conductivity of nanofluids for both non-flowing and flowing fluids. Also, it is found to be more accurate than the other models due to the inclusion of the effect of the temperature-dependent interfacial layer. In conclusion, the present model can accurately predict the changes in thermal conductivity of nanofluids due to the changes in volume fraction and temperature for

The relative age effect in sport: a developmental systems model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wattie, Nick; Schorer, Jörg; Baker, Joseph

2015-01-01

The policies that dictate the participation structure of many youth sport systems involve the use of a set selection date (e.g. 31 December), which invariably produces relative age differences between those within the selection year (e.g. 1 January to 31 December). Those born early in the selection year (e.g. January) are relatively older—by as much as 12 months minus 1 day—than those born later in the selection year (e.g. December). Research in the area of sport has identified a number of significant developmental effects associated with such relative age differences. However, a theoretical framework that describes the breadth and complexity of relative age effects (RAEs) in sport does not exist in the literature. This paper reviews and summarizes the existing literature on relative age in sport, and proposes a constraints-based developmental systems model for RAEs in sport.

Identification and Assessment of Material Models for Age-Related Degradation of Structures and Passive Components in Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nie,J.; Braverman, J.; Hofmayer, C.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, I-K.

2009-04-27

When performing seismic safety assessments of nuclear power plants (NPPs), the potential effects of age-related degradation on structures, systems, and components (SSCs) should be considered. To address the issue of aging degradation, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has embarked on a five-year research project to develop a realistic seismic risk evaluation system which will include the consideration of aging of structures and components in NPPs. Three specific areas that are included in the KAERI research project, related to seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), are probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility analysis including the effects of aging, and a plant seismic risk analysis. To support the development of seismic capability evaluation technology for degraded structures and components, KAERI entered into a collaboration agreement with Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in 2007. The collaborative research effort is intended to continue over a five year period with the goal of developing seismic fragility analysis methods that consider the potential effects of age-related degradation of SSCs, and using these results as input to seismic PRAs. In the Year 1 scope of work BNL collected and reviewed degradation occurrences in US NPPs and identified important aging characteristics needed for the seismic capability evaluations that will be performed in the subsequent evaluations in the years that follow. This information is presented in the Annual Report for the Year 1 Task, identified as BNL Report-81741-2008 and also designated as KAERI/RR-2931/2008. The report presents results of the statistical and trending analysis of this data and compares the results to prior aging studies. In addition, the report provides a description of U.S. current regulatory requirements, regulatory guidance documents, generic communications, industry standards and guidance, and past research related to aging degradation of SSCs. This report

Stability analysis of nonlinear integro-differential equations arising in age-dependent epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Doma, M.

1995-05-01

An age-structured epidemic model of an SI type that incorporate vertical transmission is investigated when the fertility and mortality rates depend on age. We determine the steady states and examine their stabilities. (author). 13 refs

Development of a lifetime prediction model for lithium-ion batteries based on extended accelerated aging test data

Science.gov (United States)

Ecker, Madeleine; Gerschler, Jochen B.; Vogel, Jan; Käbitz, Stefan; Hust, Friedrich; Dechent, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2012-10-01

Battery lifetime prognosis is a key requirement for successful market introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles. This work aims at the development of a lifetime prediction approach based on an aging model for lithium-ion batteries. A multivariable analysis of a detailed series of accelerated lifetime experiments representing typical operating conditions in hybrid electric vehicle is presented. The impact of temperature and state of charge on impedance rise and capacity loss is quantified. The investigations are based on a high-power NMC/graphite lithium-ion battery with good cycle lifetime. The resulting mathematical functions are physically motivated by the occurring aging effects and are used for the parameterization of a semi-empirical aging model. An impedance-based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model to simulate the dynamic interaction between aging of the battery and the thermal as well as electric behavior. Based on these models different drive cycles and management strategies can be analyzed with regard to their impact on lifetime. It is an important tool for vehicle designers and for the implementation of business models. A key contribution of the paper is the parameterization of the aging model by experimental data, while aging simulation in the literature usually lacks a robust empirical foundation.

Characterizing Cognitive Aging of Working Memory and Executive Function in Animal Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Lynn Bizon

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Executive functions supported by prefrontal cortical systems provide essential control and planning mechanisms to guide goal-directed behavior. As such, age-related alterations in executive functions can mediate profound and widespread deficits on a diverse array of neurocognitive processes. Many of the critical neuroanatomical and functional characteristics of prefrontal cortex are preserved in rodents, allowing for meaningful cross-species comparisons relevant to the study of cognitive aging. In particular, as rodents lend themselves to genetic, cellular and biochemical approaches, rodent models of executive function stand to significantly contribute to our understanding of the critical neurobiological mechanisms that mediate decline of executive processes across the lifespan. Moreover, rodent analogues of executive functions that decline in human aging represent an essential component of a targeted, rational approach for developing and testing effective treatment and prevention therapies for age-related cognitive decline. This paper reviews behavioral approaches used to study executive function in rodents, with a focus on those assays that share a foundation in the psychological and neuroanatomical constructs important for human aging. A particular emphasis is placed on behavioral approaches used to assess working memory and cognitive flexibility, which are sensitive to decline with age across species and for which strong rodent models currently exist. In addition, other approaches in rodent behavior that have potential for providing analogues to functions that reliably decline to human aging (e.g., information processing speed are discussed.

New Ages for Gorgona Island, Colombia: Implications for Previous Petrogenetic and Tectonic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Serrano Duran, L.; Lopez Martinez, M.; Ferrari, L.

2007-05-01

The Gorgona Island, located 50 km to the west of the Colombian Pacific coast, is the only known site with Phanerozoic komatiites in the world besides a key element in several reconstruction of the interaction between the Caribbean and the South America Plate. The Gorgona komatiites are part of an igneous complex that also includes picritic basalts and breccias, gabbros and peridotites (dunites and wherlites), and is covered by deformed mid-Eocene and younger underformed marine sediments. Datings of the igneous rocks were only performed on basalts and include an 86 Ma K-Ar age, an 88.9 ± 1.2 Ma weighted mean of four Ar-Ar ages and an 89.2 ± 5.2 Ma Re-Os isochron age from basalts. Gorgona rocks are affected by reverse faulting with a general eastward vergence. The island is the only subaerially exposed part of a NE elongated sliver accreted in a dextral transpressional regime to the South America continental margin between the Late Eocene and the Early Miocene. Petrologic studies found large spread in radiogenic isotopes and incompatible trace element ratios in Gorgona ultramafic rocks, which have been interpreted as requiring at least two different sources of: 1) a depleted mantle responsible for the generation of the komatiites and most basalts, and 2) an enriched mantle responsible for some rarer enriched basalts and picrites. Despite the large compositional and isotopic heterogeneity the most common interpretation is that the Gorgona ultramafic rocks are the product of a single mantle plume, although it has recently proposed that this would be a separate plume from that generating the bulk of the Caribbean plateau at ~90 Ma. Our new study focused on the geochronology of the Gorgona igneous suite as we consider that this tectonically and petrologically complex island is unlike to have such a narrow age range. We attempted to date eight samples of komatiites, basalts and gabbros by Ar-Ar laser step heating. For four of these samples we successfully obtain

Mesoscopic model of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in aging colloids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Becker, Nikolaj; Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan

2014-01-01

We develop a simple and effective description of the dynamics of dense hard sphere colloids in the aging regime deep in the glassy phase. Our description complements the many efforts to understand the onset of jamming in low density colloids, whose dynamics is still time-homogeneous. Based...... scattering function and particle mean-square displacements for jammed colloidal systems, and we predict a growth for the peak of the χ4 mobility correlation function that is logarithmic in waiting-time. At the same time, our model suggests a novel unified description for the irreversible aging dynamics...

tran-SAS v1.0: a numerical model to compute catchment-scale hydrologic transport using StorAge Selection functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Benettin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the tran-SAS package, which includes a set of codes to model solute transport and water residence times through a hydrological system. The model is based on a catchment-scale approach that aims at reproducing the integrated response of the system at one of its outlets. The codes are implemented in MATLAB and are meant to be easy to edit, so that users with minimal programming knowledge can adapt them to the desired application. The problem of large-scale solute transport has both theoretical and practical implications. On the one side, the ability to represent the ensemble of water flow trajectories through a heterogeneous system helps unraveling streamflow generation processes and allows us to make inferences on plant–water interactions. On the other side, transport models are a practical tool that can be used to estimate the persistence of solutes in the environment. The core of the package is based on the implementation of an age master equation (ME, which is solved using general StorAge Selection (SAS functions. The age ME is first converted into a set of ordinary differential equations, each addressing the transport of an individual precipitation input through the catchment, and then it is discretized using an explicit numerical scheme. Results show that the implementation is efficient and allows the model to run in short times. The numerical accuracy is critically evaluated and it is shown to be satisfactory in most cases of hydrologic interest. Additionally, a higher-order implementation is provided within the package to evaluate and, if necessary, to improve the numerical accuracy of the results. The codes can be used to model streamflow age and solute concentration, but a number of additional outputs can be obtained by editing the codes to further advance the ability to understand and model catchment transport processes.

tran-SAS v1.0: a numerical model to compute catchment-scale hydrologic transport using StorAge Selection functions

Science.gov (United States)

Benettin, Paolo; Bertuzzo, Enrico

2018-04-01

This paper presents the tran-SAS package, which includes a set of codes to model solute transport and water residence times through a hydrological system. The model is based on a catchment-scale approach that aims at reproducing the integrated response of the system at one of its outlets. The codes are implemented in MATLAB and are meant to be easy to edit, so that users with minimal programming knowledge can adapt them to the desired application. The problem of large-scale solute transport has both theoretical and practical implications. On the one side, the ability to represent the ensemble of water flow trajectories through a heterogeneous system helps unraveling streamflow generation processes and allows us to make inferences on plant-water interactions. On the other side, transport models are a practical tool that can be used to estimate the persistence of solutes in the environment. The core of the package is based on the implementation of an age master equation (ME), which is solved using general StorAge Selection (SAS) functions. The age ME is first converted into a set of ordinary differential equations, each addressing the transport of an individual precipitation input through the catchment, and then it is discretized using an explicit numerical scheme. Results show that the implementation is efficient and allows the model to run in short times. The numerical accuracy is critically evaluated and it is shown to be satisfactory in most cases of hydrologic interest. Additionally, a higher-order implementation is provided within the package to evaluate and, if necessary, to improve the numerical accuracy of the results. The codes can be used to model streamflow age and solute concentration, but a number of additional outputs can be obtained by editing the codes to further advance the ability to understand and model catchment transport processes.

Crustal evolution in north-east and east Africa from model Nd ages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, N.B.W.; Hawkesworth, C.J.; Ries, A.C.

1984-01-01

The authors present the results of an Nd isotope study on the major rock units of the Pan-African (1,100-500 Myr BP) terrane. Charnockites from Jabel Uweinat, a basement inlier at the junction of Egypt, Libya and the Sudan, yield middle Archaean model Nd ages, whilst model ages of < 1,200 Myr have been obtained in a belt from the Eastern Desert of Egypt to north-west Kenya. Overall, the Pan-African rocks from north-east and east Africa and those from the Damara of Namibia exhibit a wide range of epsilonsub(Nd)(T) from +7.5 to -18.0 which reflects regional changes in tectonic style and is not readily reconciled with simple models for the evolution of average continental crust. (author)

Development of modulators against degenerative aging using radiation fusion technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jo, S. K.; Park, H. R.; Jang, B. S.; Roh, C. H.; Eom, H. S.; Choi, N. H.; Seol, M. A.; Kim, S. H.; Choi, H. M.; Park, M. K.; Shin, H. J.; Ryu, D. K.; Oh, W. J.; Kim, S. H; Yee, S. T.

2012-04-15

1. Objectives Establishment of modelling of degenerative aging using radiation technology Development of aging modulators using radiation degenerative aging model 2. Project results Establishment of the modeling of degenerative aging using radiation technology - The systematic study on the comparison of radiation-induced degeneration and natural aging process in animals and cells confirmed the biological similarity between these two degeneration models - The effective biomarkers were selected for the modelling of degenerative aging using radiation (10 biomarkers for immune/hematopoiesis, 1 for oxidative stress, 6 for molecular signaling, 3 for lipid metabolism) - The optimal irradiation condition was established for the modelling of degerative aging (total 5Gy with fractionation by over 10 times, lapse of over 4 months) - The molecular mechanisms of radiation-induced degeneration were studied including chronic inflammation (lung), inflammation-related lipid metabolism disturbance, mitochondria biogenesis and dynamics - The radiation degenerative model was evaluated with previously known natural substances (resveratrol, EGCG, etc) Development of aging modulators using radiation degenerative aging model - After the screening of about 800 natural herb extracts, 5 effective substances were selected for aging modulation. - 3 candidate compositions were selected from 20 compositions made from effective substances by in vitro evaluation (WAH2, WAH6, WAH7) - 1 composition (WAH6) was selected as the best aging modulator by in vivo evaluation in radiation-induced aging models and degenerative disease models. 3. Expected benefits and plan of application The modelling of degenerative aging using radiation can facilitate the aging research by providing the useful cell/animal models for aging research A large economic benefits are expected by the commercialization of developed aging modulators (over 10 billion KW in 2015.

Development of modulators against degenerative aging using radiation fusion technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, S. K.; Park, H. R.; Jang, B. S.; Roh, C. H.; Eom, H. S.; Choi, N. H.; Seol, M. A.; Kim, S. H.; Choi, H. M.; Park, M. K.; Shin, H. J.; Ryu, D. K.; Oh, W. J.; Kim, S. H; Yee, S. T.

2012-04-01

1. Objectives Establishment of modelling of degenerative aging using radiation technology Development of aging modulators using radiation degenerative aging model 2. Project results Establishment of the modeling of degenerative aging using radiation technology - The systematic study on the comparison of radiation-induced degeneration and natural aging process in animals and cells confirmed the biological similarity between these two degeneration models - The effective biomarkers were selected for the modelling of degenerative aging using radiation (10 biomarkers for immune/hematopoiesis, 1 for oxidative stress, 6 for molecular signaling, 3 for lipid metabolism) - The optimal irradiation condition was established for the modelling of degerative aging (total 5Gy with fractionation by over 10 times, lapse of over 4 months) - The molecular mechanisms of radiation-induced degeneration were studied including chronic inflammation (lung), inflammation-related lipid metabolism disturbance, mitochondria biogenesis and dynamics - The radiation degenerative model was evaluated with previously known natural substances (resveratrol, EGCG, etc) Development of aging modulators using radiation degenerative aging model - After the screening of about 800 natural herb extracts, 5 effective substances were selected for aging modulation. - 3 candidate compositions were selected from 20 compositions made from effective substances by in vitro evaluation (WAH2, WAH6, WAH7) - 1 composition (WAH6) was selected as the best aging modulator by in vivo evaluation in radiation-induced aging models and degenerative disease models. 3. Expected benefits and plan of application The modelling of degenerative aging using radiation can facilitate the aging research by providing the useful cell/animal models for aging research A large economic benefits are expected by the commercialization of developed aging modulators (over 10 billion KW in 2015

Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Noise in Silicon Nanowire FETs including Self-Heating Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Anandan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Silicon nanowires are leading the CMOS era towards the downsizing limit and its nature will be effectively suppress the short channel effects. Accurate modeling of thermal noise in nanowires is crucial for RF applications of nano-CMOS emerging technologies. In this work, a perfect temperature-dependent model for silicon nanowires including the self-heating effects has been derived and its effects on device parameters have been observed. The power spectral density as a function of thermal resistance shows significant improvement as the channel length decreases. The effects of thermal noise including self-heating of the device are explored. Moreover, significant reduction in noise with respect to channel thermal resistance, gate length, and biasing is analyzed.

Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, G.; Tsang, C.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the predictions and analysis performed using the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA) and the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal and lower lithophysal lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain. These results will be used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into waste-emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as part of the evaluation of the long term performance of the potential repository. This AMR is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS M andO 2000 [153447]). This purpose is accomplished by performing numerical simulations with stochastic representations of hydrological properties, using the Seepage Model for PA, and evaluating the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift using the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel. Seepage of water into waste-emplacement drifts is considered one of the principal factors having the greatest impact of long-term safety of the repository system (CRWMS M andO 2000 [153225], Table 4-1). This AMR supports the analysis and simulation that are used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into drift, and is therefore a model of primary (Level 1) importance (AP-3.15Q, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''). The intended purpose of the Seepage Model for PA is to support: (1) PA; (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Seepage; and (3) Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). Seepage into drifts is evaluated by applying numerical models with stochastic representations of hydrological properties and performing flow simulations with multiple realizations of the permeability field around the drift. The Seepage Model for PA uses the distribution of permeabilities derived from air injection testing in niches and in the cross drift to

Seepage Model for PA Including Dift Collapse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

G. Li; C. Tsang

2000-12-20

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the predictions and analysis performed using the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA) and the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal and lower lithophysal lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain. These results will be used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into waste-emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as part of the evaluation of the long term performance of the potential repository. This AMR is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153447]). This purpose is accomplished by performing numerical simulations with stochastic representations of hydrological properties, using the Seepage Model for PA, and evaluating the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift using the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel. Seepage of water into waste-emplacement drifts is considered one of the principal factors having the greatest impact of long-term safety of the repository system (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153225], Table 4-1). This AMR supports the analysis and simulation that are used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into drift, and is therefore a model of primary (Level 1) importance (AP-3.15Q, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''). The intended purpose of the Seepage Model for PA is to support: (1) PA; (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Seepage; and (3) Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). Seepage into drifts is evaluated by applying numerical models with stochastic representations of hydrological properties and performing flow simulations with multiple realizations of the permeability field around the drift. The Seepage Model for PA uses the distribution of permeabilities derived from air injection testing in

Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

Science.gov (United States)

Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

2011-05-01

Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi-model

Age-dependent dosimetry and metabolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, D.M.

1992-01-01

The release of radionuclides into the environment following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 created an urgent need for internationally acceptable dose coefficients for calculating the doses delivered to all members of the public, from conception to old age. Organ masses and the kinetics of distribution and retention of elements in humans generally vary with age and often not in simple linear relationship to body weight. Unless variations are considered calculated radiation doses to children may be seriously underestimated. The International Commission on Radiological Protection created in 1987 a Task Group on Age-dependent Doses to Members of the Public from Intake of Radionuclides (AGDOS). The work of AGDOS and the general problems encountered in deriving age-dependent dose coefficients will be discussed in this paper. The first two AGDOS reports, ICRP Publication 56 Parts 1 and 2, provide dose coefficients for the ages 3 months, 1, 5, 10, 15 years and for adults for the 21 elements considered to be of most immediate importance for radiation protection. To develop these dose coefficients, the ICRP Publication 30 dosimetric and biokinetic models were reevaluated and extended. The basic dosimetric model is retained but equivalent dose is now integrated from age at intake to 70 years and the new ICRP Publication 60 tissue weighting factors are incorporated. The development of age-dependent biokinetic models is complicated by the lack of age-related human, or even animal data for the majority of the elements. Thus in formulating the models it has been necessary to use all the available information, biokinetic, physiological chemical and biochemical, and to adopt a number of new approaches including the development of generic biokinetic models for chemically related families of elements such as the actinides and the alkaline earth elements. (author)

Identifying community healthcare supports for the elderly and the factors affecting their aging care model preference: evidence from three districts of Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianyang Liu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Chinese tradition of filial piety, which prioritized family-based care for the elderly, is transitioning and elders can no longer necessarily rely on their children. The purpose of this study was to identify community support for the elderly, and analyze the factors that affect which model of old-age care elderly people dwelling in communities prefer. Methods We used the database “Health and Social Support of Elderly Population in Community”. Questionnaires were issued in 2013, covering 3 districts in Beijing. A group of 1036 people over 60 years in age were included in the study. The respondents’ profile variables were organized in Andersen’s Model and community healthcare resource factors were added. A multinomial logistic model was applied to analyze the factors associated with the desired aging care models. Results Cohabiting with children and relying on care from family was still the primary desired aging care model for seniors (78 %, followed by living in institutions (14.8 % and living at home independently while relying on community resources (7.2 %. The regression result indicated that predisposing, enabling and community factors were significantly associated with the aging care model preference. Specifically, compared with those who preferred to cohabit with children, those having higher education, fewer available family and friend helpers, and shorter distance to healthcare center were more likely to prefer to live independently and rely on community support. And compared with choosing to live in institutions, those having fewer available family and friend helpers and those living alone were more likely to prefer to live independently and rely on community. Need factors (health and disability condition were not significantly associated with desired aging care models, indicating that desired aging care models were passive choices resulted from the balancing of family and social caring resources

230Th-234U Model-Ages of Some Uranium Standard Reference Materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, R.W.; Gaffney, A.M.; Kristo, M.J.; Hutcheon, I.D.

2009-01-01

The 'age' of a sample of uranium is an important aspect of a nuclear forensic investigation and of the attribution of the material to its source. To the extent that the sample obeys the standard rules of radiochronometry, then the production ages of even very recent material can be determined using the 230 Th- 234 U chronometer. These standard rules may be summarized as (a) the daughter/parent ratio at time=zero must be known, and (b) there has been no daughter/parent fractionation since production. For most samples of uranium, the 'ages' determined using this chronometer are semantically 'model-ages' because (a) some assumption of the initial 230 Th content in the sample is required and (b) closed-system behavior is assumed. The uranium standard reference materials originally prepared and distributed by the former US National Bureau of Standards and now distributed by New Brunswick Laboratory as certified reference materials (NBS SRM = NBL CRM) are good candidates for samples where both rules are met. The U isotopic standards have known purification and production dates, and closed-system behavior in the solid form (U 3 O 8 ) may be assumed with confidence. We present here 230 Th- 234 U model-ages for several of these standards, determined by isotope dilution mass spectrometry using a multicollector ICP-MS, and compare these ages with their known production history

AgeFactDB—the JenAge Ageing Factor Database—towards data integration in ageing research

Science.gov (United States)

Hühne, Rolf; Thalheim, Torsten; Sühnel, Jürgen

2014-01-01

AgeFactDB (http://agefactdb.jenage.de) is a database aimed at the collection and integration of ageing phenotype data including lifespan information. Ageing factors are considered to be genes, chemical compounds or other factors such as dietary restriction, whose action results in a changed lifespan or another ageing phenotype. Any information related to the effects of ageing factors is called an observation and is presented on observation pages. To provide concise access to the complete information for a particular ageing factor, corresponding observations are also summarized on ageing factor pages. In a first step, ageing-related data were primarily taken from existing databases such as the Ageing Gene Database—GenAge, the Lifespan Observations Database and the Dietary Restriction Gene Database—GenDR. In addition, we have started to include new ageing-related information. Based on homology data taken from the HomoloGene Database, AgeFactDB also provides observation and ageing factor pages of genes that are homologous to known ageing-related genes. These homologues are considered as candidate or putative ageing-related genes. AgeFactDB offers a variety of search and browse options, and also allows the download of ageing factor or observation lists in TSV, CSV and XML formats. PMID:24217911

Particle-based modeling of heterogeneous chemical kinetics including mass transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Sengar, A; Kuipers, J A M; van Santen, Rutger A; Padding, J T

2017-08-01

Connecting the macroscopic world of continuous fields to the microscopic world of discrete molecular events is important for understanding several phenomena occurring at physical boundaries of systems. An important example is heterogeneous catalysis, where reactions take place at active surfaces, but the effective reaction rates are determined by transport limitations in the bulk fluid and reaction limitations on the catalyst surface. In this work we study the macro-micro connection in a model heterogeneous catalytic reactor by means of stochastic rotation dynamics. The model is able to resolve the convective and diffusive interplay between participating species, while including adsorption, desorption, and reaction processes on the catalytic surface. Here we apply the simulation methodology to a simple straight microchannel with a catalytic strip. Dimensionless Damkohler numbers are used to comment on the spatial concentration profiles of reactants and products near the catalyst strip and in the bulk. We end the discussion with an outlook on more complicated geometries and increasingly complex reactions.

Particle-based modeling of heterogeneous chemical kinetics including mass transfer

Science.gov (United States)

Sengar, A.; Kuipers, J. A. M.; van Santen, Rutger A.; Padding, J. T.

2017-08-01

Connecting the macroscopic world of continuous fields to the microscopic world of discrete molecular events is important for understanding several phenomena occurring at physical boundaries of systems. An important example is heterogeneous catalysis, where reactions take place at active surfaces, but the effective reaction rates are determined by transport limitations in the bulk fluid and reaction limitations on the catalyst surface. In this work we study the macro-micro connection in a model heterogeneous catalytic reactor by means of stochastic rotation dynamics. The model is able to resolve the convective and diffusive interplay between participating species, while including adsorption, desorption, and reaction processes on the catalytic surface. Here we apply the simulation methodology to a simple straight microchannel with a catalytic strip. Dimensionless Damkohler numbers are used to comment on the spatial concentration profiles of reactants and products near the catalyst strip and in the bulk. We end the discussion with an outlook on more complicated geometries and increasingly complex reactions.

A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2014-07-01

Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

Science.gov (United States)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Is There Successful Aging for Nonagenarians? The Vitality 90+ Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lily Nosraty

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. This study was designed (1 to estimate the prevalence of successful aging among nonagenarians based on six different models and (2 to investigate whether successful aging is associated with socio-demographic factors. Methods. A mailed survey was conducted with people aged 90+ in Tampere in 2010. Responses were received from 1283 people. The prevalence of successful aging was measured by six multidimensional models including physical, social, and psychological components. Age, sex, marital status, level of education, and place of living were studied as factors associated with successful aging. Results. The prevalence of successful aging varied from 1.6% to 18.3% depending on the model applied. Successful aging was more prevalent in men, and also more prevalent among community-living people. In most models, successful aging was also associated with younger age, being married, and a higher level of education. Discussion. Models which emphasize the absence of disease and activity as criteria for successful aging may not be the most relevant and applicable in oldest old. Instead, preference should be given to models that focus more on autonomy, adaptation and sense of purpose. Age-sensitive approaches would help us better understand the potential of successful aging among individuals who already have success in longevity.

Modeling glass transition and aging processes in nanocomposites and polymer thin films

Science.gov (United States)

Pryamitsyn, Victor; Ganesan, Venkat

2010-03-01

We use a lattice kinetic model of glass transition to study the role of confinement and the presence of nano-inclusions. We have studied freely suspended films of glass-formers and its nanocomposites with ``plastifying'' and ``hardening'' nanoparticles. Using our model we determine the thickness and nanoparticle load dependencies of the Kauzmann temperature T0 and the fragility parameter. We found the glass transition temperature increases with the thickness of the film and the volume fraction of ``hardening'' nanoparticles , while Tg decreases with increase in the loading of ``plastifying'' nanoparticles. We found that the isothermal free volume relaxation rate of the nanocomposite thin film, usually referred as an aging, correlates with the glass transition temperature shift. We also studied the relations between our lattice model and Curro's, Kovacs and Struik's phenomenological models of free volume reduction to deduce physical insights into the mechanisms governing aging processes in thin films and nanocomposites.

Observational constraint on the interacting dark energy models including the Sandage-Loeb test

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ming-Jian; Liu, Wen-Biao

2014-05-01

Two types of interacting dark energy models are investigated using the type Ia supernova (SNIa), observational data (OHD), cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and the secular Sandage-Loeb (SL) test. In the investigation, we have used two sets of parameter priors including WMAP-9 and Planck 2013. They have shown some interesting differences. We find that the inclusion of SL test can obviously provide a more stringent constraint on the parameters in both models. For the constant coupling model, the interaction term has been improved to be only a half of the original scale on corresponding errors. Comparing with only SNIa and OHD, we find that the inclusion of the SL test almost reduces the best-fit interaction to zero, which indicates that the higher-redshift observation including the SL test is necessary to track the evolution of the interaction. For the varying coupling model, data with the inclusion of the SL test show that the parameter at C.L. in Planck priors is , where the constant is characteristic for the severity of the coincidence problem. This indicates that the coincidence problem will be less severe. We then reconstruct the interaction , and we find that the best-fit interaction is also negative, similar to the constant coupling model. However, for a high redshift, the interaction generally vanishes at infinity. We also find that the phantom-like dark energy with is favored over the CDM model.

MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Proksch

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5–100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like- and cross-polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoid fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx (Nordic Snow Radar Experiment campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in Matlab and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.

Emerging Models of Dental Practice Aim at Addressing Needs of the Aged.

Science.gov (United States)

Catalanotto, Frank; Koppelman, Jane; Haber, Judith

2017-10-01

Currently, about 46 million seniors, citizens over the age of 65, live in the United States. That number is expected to roughly double to more than 98 million by 2060, an increase from the current 15% of the population to 24%. Seniors are living longer and, due to advances in dental care and access to fluoridated water, keeping more of their teeth. As a result, many will be seeking to access services through a dental care delivery system that is already struggling to meet existing need. This article will describe emerging oral health workforce models, as well as interprofessional team approaches, that may help improve access to the growing population of senior citizens. The article will include discussions on dental therapists, dental hygienists, physicians, nurses, and physician assistants.

Dipole model analysis of highest precision HERA data, including very low Q"2's

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luszczak, A.; Kowalski, H.

2016-12-01

We analyse, within a dipole model, the final, inclusive HERA DIS cross section data in the low χ region, using fully correlated errors. We show, that these highest precision data are very well described within the dipole model framework starting from Q"2 values of 3.5 GeV"2 to the highest values of Q"2=250 GeV"2. To analyze the saturation effects we evaluated the data including also the very low 0.35< Q"2 GeV"2 region. The fits including this region show a preference of the saturation ansatz.

A speech production model including the nasal Cavity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Morten

In order to obtain articulatory analysis of speech production the model is improved. the standard model, as used in LPC analysis, to a large extent only models the acoustic properties of speech signal as opposed to articulatory modelling of the speech production. In spite of this the LPC model...... is by far the most widely used model in speech technology....

Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model

Science.gov (United States)

Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.

2018-01-01

We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.