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Sample records for modelling species distribution

  1. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  2. Bounding species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

  3. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  4. New trends in species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

  5. Finessing atlas data for species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niamir, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Munoz, A.R.; Real, R.

    2011-01-01

    Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This

  6. Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

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    Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

    2016-02-01

    Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

  7. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

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    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  8. Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine Ann

    2011-01-01

    -Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology......Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i......) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview...

  9. Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

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    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

    2017-07-01

    Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same

  10. Sample sizes and model comparison metrics for species distribution models

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    B.B. Hanberry; H.S. He; D.C. Dey

    2012-01-01

    Species distribution models use small samples to produce continuous distribution maps. The question of how small a sample can be to produce an accurate model generally has been answered based on comparisons to maximum sample sizes of 200 observations or fewer. In addition, model comparisons often are made with the kappa statistic, which has become controversial....

  11. How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Stephan Gritti

    Full Text Available Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs. However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

  12. Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.

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    Trainor, Anne M; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2014-12-01

    Community ecology involves studying the interdependence of species with each other and their environment to predict their geographical distribution and abundance. Modern species distribution analyses characterise species-environment dependency well, but offer only crude approximations of species interdependency. Typically, the dependency between focal species and other species is characterised using other species' point occurrences as spatial covariates to constrain the focal species' predicted range. This implicitly assumes that the strength of interdependency is homogeneous across space, which is not generally supported by analyses of species interactions. This discrepancy has an important bearing on the accuracy of inferences about habitat suitability for species. We introduce a framework that integrates principles from consumer-resource analyses, resource selection theory and species distribution modelling to enhance quantitative prediction of species geographical distributions. We show how to apply the framework using a case study of lynx and snowshoe hare interactions with each other and their environment. The analysis shows how the framework offers a spatially refined understanding of species distribution that is sensitive to nuances in biophysical attributes of the environment that determine the location and strength of species interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  13. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke

    2010-06-11

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair of species is denoted by an interaction coefficient. At each time step, a new species is introduced to the system with randomly assigned interaction coefficients. If the sum of the coefficients, which we call the fitness of a species, is negative, the species goes extinct. The species-lifetime distribution is found to be well characterized by a stretched exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. This profile agrees not only with more realistic population dynamics models but also with fossil records. We also find that an age-independent and inversely diversity-dependent mortality, which is confirmed in the simulation, is a key mechanism accounting for the distribution. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

  14. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Guisan, Antoine

    2006-01-01

    Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in mo...

  15. Predicting weed problems in maize cropping by species distribution modelling

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    Bürger, Jana

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Increasing maize cultivation and changed cropping practices promote the selection of typical maize weeds that may also profit strongly from climate change. Predicting potential weed problems is of high interest for plant production. Within the project KLIFF, experiments were combined with species distribution modelling for this task in the region of Lower Saxony, Germany. For our study, we modelled ecological and damage niches of nine weed species that are significant and wide spread in maize cropping in a number of European countries. Species distribution models describe the ecological niche of a species, these are the environmental conditions under which a species can maintain a vital population. It is also possible to estimate a damage niche, i.e. the conditions under which a species causes damage in agricultural crops. For this, we combined occurrence data of European national data bases with high resolution climate, soil and land use data. Models were also projected to simulated climate conditions for the time horizon 2070 - 2100 in order to estimate climate change effects. Modelling results indicate favourable conditions for typical maize weed occurrence virtually all over the study region, but only a few species are important in maize cropping. This is in good accordance with the findings of an earlier maize weed monitoring. Reaction to changing climate conditions is species-specific, for some species neutral (E. crus-galli, other species may gain (Polygonum persicaria or loose (Viola arvensis large areas of suitable habitats. All species with damage potential under present conditions will remain important in maize cropping, some more species will gain regional importance (Calystegia sepium, Setara viridis.

  16. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

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    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  17. Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

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    Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

    2017-06-01

    Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual

  18. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

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    Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-02-01

    Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally

  19. Species Distribution modeling as a tool to unravel determinants of palm distribution in Thailand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Balslev, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    As a consequence of the decimation of the forest cover in Thailand from 50% to ca. 20 % since the 1950ies, it is difficult to gain insight in the drivers behind past, present and future distribution ranges of plant species. Species distribution modeling allows visualization of potential species...... distribution under specific sets of assumptions. In this study we used maximum entropy to map potential distributions of 103 species of palms for which more than 5 herbarium records exist. Palms constitute key-stone plant group from both an ecological, economical and conservation perspective. The models were......) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models performed well with AUC scores above 0.95. The predicted distribution ranges showed high suitability for palms in the southern region of Thailand. It also shows that spatial predictor variables are important in cases where historical processes may explain extant...

  20. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

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    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  1. Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

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    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Treglia, Michael L; Grant, William E; Smeins, Fred E; Rogers, William E

    2015-04-21

    Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also

  2. SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...

  3. A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu

    2010-01-01

    A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair

  4. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  5. Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraitis, Manos L; Tsikopoulou, Irini; Geropoulos, Antonios; Dimitriou, Panagiotis D; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Valavanis, Vasilis D; Karakassis, Ioannis

    2018-05-24

    Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaud Rougier

    Full Text Available Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa, an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local

  7. Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

    2017-01-01

    Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have

  8. Bias correction in species distribution models: pooling survey and collection data for multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fithian, William; Elith, Jane; Hastie, Trevor; Keith, David A

    2015-04-01

    Presence-only records may provide data on the distributions of rare species, but commonly suffer from large, unknown biases due to their typically haphazard collection schemes. Presence-absence or count data collected in systematic, planned surveys are more reliable but typically less abundant.We proposed a probabilistic model to allow for joint analysis of presence-only and survey data to exploit their complementary strengths. Our method pools presence-only and presence-absence data for many species and maximizes a joint likelihood, simultaneously estimating and adjusting for the sampling bias affecting the presence-only data. By assuming that the sampling bias is the same for all species, we can borrow strength across species to efficiently estimate the bias and improve our inference from presence-only data.We evaluate our model's performance on data for 36 eucalypt species in south-eastern Australia. We find that presence-only records exhibit a strong sampling bias towards the coast and towards Sydney, the largest city. Our data-pooling technique substantially improves the out-of-sample predictive performance of our model when the amount of available presence-absence data for a given species is scarceIf we have only presence-only data and no presence-absence data for a given species, but both types of data for several other species that suffer from the same spatial sampling bias, then our method can obtain an unbiased estimate of the first species' geographic range.

  9. Species distribution model transferability and model grain size - finer may not always be better.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoor, Syed Amir; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Lukac, Martin

    2018-05-08

    Species distribution models have been used to predict the distribution of invasive species for conservation planning. Understanding spatial transferability of niche predictions is critical to promote species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion. Grain size of predictor variables is an important factor affecting the accuracy and transferability of species distribution models. Choice of grain size is often dependent on the type of predictor variables used and the selection of predictors sometimes rely on data availability. This study employed the MAXENT species distribution model to investigate the effect of the grain size on model transferability for an invasive plant species. We modelled the distribution of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales, U.K. and tested model performance and transferability by varying grain size (50 m, 300 m, and 1 km). MAXENT-based models are sensitive to grain size and selection of variables. We found that over-reliance on the commonly used bioclimatic variables may lead to less accurate models as it often compromises the finer grain size of biophysical variables which may be more important determinants of species distribution at small spatial scales. Model accuracy is likely to increase with decreasing grain size. However, successful model transferability may require optimization of model grain size.

  10. Deriving field-based species sensitivity distributions (f-SSDs) from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2014-12-16

    Quantitative relationships between species richness and single environmental factors, also called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), are helpful to understand and predict biodiversity patterns, identify environmental management options and set environmental quality standards. However, species richness is typically dependent on a variety of environmental factors, implying that it is not straightforward to quantify SSDs from field monitoring data. Here, we present a novel and flexible approach to solve this, based on the method of stacked species distribution modeling. First, a species distribution model (SDM) is established for each species, describing its probability of occurrence in relation to multiple environmental factors. Next, the predictions of the SDMs are stacked along the gradient of each environmental factor with the remaining environmental factors at fixed levels. By varying those fixed levels, our approach can be used to investigate how field-based SSDs for a given environmental factor change in relation to changing confounding influences, including for example optimal, typical, or extreme environmental conditions. This provides an asset in the evaluation of potential management measures to reach good ecological status.

  11. The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

  12. Species Distribution Modeling: Comparison of Fixed and Mixed Effects Models Using INLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Dutra Silva

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Invasive alien species are among the most important, least controlled, and least reversible of human impacts on the world’s ecosystems, with negative consequences affecting biodiversity and socioeconomic systems. Species distribution models have become a fundamental tool in assessing the potential spread of invasive species in face of their native counterparts. In this study we compared two different modeling techniques: (i fixed effects models accounting for the effect of ecogeographical variables (EGVs; and (ii mixed effects models including also a Gaussian random field (GRF to model spatial correlation (Matérn covariance function. To estimate the potential distribution of Pittosporum undulatum and Morella faya (respectively, invasive and native trees, we used geo-referenced data of their distribution in Pico and São Miguel islands (Azores and topographic, climatic and land use EGVs. Fixed effects models run with maximum likelihood or the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation approach provided very similar results, even when reducing the size of the presences data set. The addition of the GRF increased model adjustment (lower Deviance Information Criterion, particularly for the less abundant tree, M. faya. However, the random field parameters were clearly affected by sample size and species distribution pattern. A high degree of spatial autocorrelation was found and should be taken into account when modeling species distribution.

  13. A Species Distribution Modeling Informed Conservation Assessment of Bog Spicebush

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-14

    Adhikari, Barik , and Upadhaya 2012). These results sug- gest there are many locations potentially suitable for (re)introducing L. subcoriacea across its...References Adhikari, D., S. K. Barik , K. Upadhaya. 2012. Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of Ilex khasiana Purk., a critically

  14. BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

  15. Current state of the art for statistical modeling of species distributions [Chapter 16

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy M. Hegel; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey Evans; Falk Huettmann

    2010-01-01

    Over the past decade the number of statistical modelling tools available to ecologists to model species' distributions has increased at a rapid pace (e.g. Elith et al. 2006; Austin 2007), as have the number of species distribution models (SDM) published in the literature (e.g. Scott et al. 2002). Ten years ago, basic logistic regression (Hosmer and Lemeshow 2000)...

  16. Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

    2013-01-01

    Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

  17. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  18. Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomes, Vitor H.F.; Ijff, Stéphanie D.; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P.; Coelho, Luiz De Souza; Matos, Francisca Dionízia De Almeida; Castilho, Carolina V.; Filho, Diogenes De Andrade Lima; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Wittmann, Florian; Carim, Marcelo De Jesus Veiga; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean François; Bánki, Olaf S.; Guimarães, José Renan Da Silva; Pitman, Nigel C.A.; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes De Leão; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon, Ben Hur; Coronado, Euridice N.Honorio; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J.; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L.; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F.; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O.; Laurance, Susan G.W.; Farias, Emanuelle De Sousa; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R.C.; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R.; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F.; Aymard, Gerardo A.C.; Mogollón, Hugo F.; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A.; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; Do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; De Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Feeley, Kenneth; Arroyo, Luzmila; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti; Gribel, Rogerio; Villa, Boris; Licona, Juan Carlos; Fine, Paul V.A.; Cerón, Carlos; Baraloto, Chris; Jimenez, Eliana M.; Stropp, Juliana; Engel, Julien; Silveira, Marcos; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Maas, Paul; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Henkel, Terry W.; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; Baker, Tim R.; Fuentes, Alfredo; Peres, Carlos A.; Chave, Jerome; Pena, Jose Luis Marcelo; Dexter, Kyle G.; Silman, Miles R.; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Pennington, Toby; Di Fiore, Anthony; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Phillips, Juan Fernando; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Von Hildebrand, Patricio; Van Andel, Tinde R.; Ruschel, Ademir R.; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Hoffman, Bruce; Vela, César I.A.; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; Zent, Egleé L.; Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo; Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila; Miranda, Ires Paula De Andrade; Guillaumet, Jean Louis; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite; Bonates, Luiz Carlos De Matos; Silva, Natalino; Gómez, Ricardo Zárate; Zent, Stanford; Gonzales, Therany; Vos, Vincent A.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Oliveira, Alexandre A.; Cano, Angela; Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss; Vriesendorp, Corine; Correa, Diego Felipe; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Van Der Heijden, Geertje; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Young, Kenneth R.; Rocha, Maira; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; Tirado, Milton; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Mendoza, Casimiro; Ferreira, Cid; Baider, Cláudia; Villarroel, Daniel; Balslev, Henrik; Mesones, Italo; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Casas, Luisa Fernanda; Reategui, Manuel Augusto Ahuite; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Zagt, Roderick; Cárdenas, Sasha; Farfan-Rios, William; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Pauletto, Daniela; Sandoval, Elvis H.Valderrama; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Pansini, Susamar; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Milliken, William; Ricardo, Joana; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Pos, Edwin; Ter Steege, Hans

    2018-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs.

  19. Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeyeong Choe

    Full Text Available Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS multi-response species distribution model to overcome species' data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species' ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species' presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the

  20. Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Vitor H F; IJff, Stéphanie D; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; Castilho, Carolina V; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E; Phillips, Oliver L; Wittmann, Florian; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Bánki, Olaf S; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Pitman, Nigel C A; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Coronado, Euridice N Honorio; Feldpausch, Ted R; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O; Laurance, Susan G W; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R C; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F; Aymard C, Gerardo A; Mogollón, Hugo F; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Feeley, Kenneth; Arroyo, Luzmila; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti; Gribel, Rogerio; Villa, Boris; Licona, Juan Carlos; Fine, Paul V A; Cerón, Carlos; Baraloto, Chris; Jimenez, Eliana M; Stropp, Juliana; Engel, Julien; Silveira, Marcos; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Maas, Paul; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Henkel, Terry W; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; Baker, Tim R; Fuentes, Alfredo; Peres, Carlos A; Chave, Jerome; Pena, Jose Luis Marcelo; Dexter, Kyle G; Silman, Miles R; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Pennington, Toby; Di Fiore, Anthony; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Phillips, Juan Fernando; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; von Hildebrand, Patricio; van Andel, Tinde R; Ruschel, Ademir R; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Hoffman, Bruce; Vela, César I A; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; Zent, Egleé L; Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo; Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; Silva, Natalino; Gómez, Ricardo Zárate; Zent, Stanford; Gonzales, Therany; Vos, Vincent A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Oliveira, Alexandre A; Cano, Angela; Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss; Vriesendorp, Corine; Correa, Diego Felipe; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; van der Heijden, Geertje; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Young, Kenneth R; Rocha, Maira; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; Tirado, Milton; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Mendoza, Casimiro; Ferreira, Cid; Baider, Cláudia; Villarroel, Daniel; Balslev, Henrik; Mesones, Italo; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Casas, Luisa Fernanda; Reategui, Manuel Augusto Ahuite; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Zagt, Roderick; Cárdenas, Sasha; Farfan-Rios, William; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Pauletto, Daniela; Sandoval, Elvis H Valderrama; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Alexiades, Miguel N; Pansini, Susamar; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Milliken, William; Ricardo, Joana; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Pos, Edwin; Ter Steege, Hans

    2018-01-17

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

  1. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  2. Modelling the potential spatial distribution of mosquito species using three different techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cianci, D.; Hartemink, N.; Ibáñez-Justicia, A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Models for the spatial distribution of vector species are important tools in the assessment of the risk of establishment and subsequent spread of vector-borne diseases. The aims of this study are to define the environmental conditions suitable for several mosquito species through species

  3. Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Anne; LeRoux, Peter C.; Heikkinen, Risto K.

    2013-01-01

    changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. Location. Finland. Methods. Using 10-km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992–1999 (t1) and 2002–2009 (t2), with a significant between-period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly...... butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared to non-independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared to climate-only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long......Aim. To quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional...

  4. Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

  5. Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Schliep, Erin M; Schaeffer, Robert N; Orians, Colin M; Orwig, David A; Preisser, Evan L

    2018-05-01

    A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Determining the factors affecting the distribution of Muscari latifolium, an endemic plant of Turkey, and a mapping species distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Hatice; Yilmaz, Osman Yalçın; Akyüz, Yaşar Feyza

    2017-02-01

    Species distribution modeling was used to determine factors among the large predictor candidate data set that affect the distribution of Muscari latifolium , an endemic bulbous plant species of Turkey, to quantify the relative importance of each factor and make a potential spatial distribution map of M. latifolium . Models were built using the Boosted Regression Trees method based on 35 presence and 70 absence records obtained through field sampling in the Gönen Dam watershed area of the Kazdağı Mountains in West Anatolia. Large candidate variables of monthly and seasonal climate, fine-scale land surface, and geologic and biotic variables were simplified using a BRT simplifying procedure. Analyses performed on these resources, direct and indirect variables showed that there were 14 main factors that influence the species' distribution. Five of the 14 most important variables influencing the distribution of the species are bedrock type, Quercus cerris density, precipitation during the wettest month, Pinus nigra density, and northness. These variables account for approximately 60% of the relative importance for determining the distribution of the species. Prediction performance was assessed by 10 random subsample data sets and gave a maximum the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.93 and an average AUC value of 0.8. This study provides a significant contribution to the knowledge of the habitat requirements and ecological characteristics of this species. The distribution of this species is explained by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors. Hence, using biotic interaction and fine-scale land surface variables in species distribution models improved the accuracy and precision of the model. The knowledge of the relationships between distribution patterns and environmental factors and biotic interaction of M. latifolium can help develop a management and conservation strategy for this species.

  7. Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pelayo Acevedo

    Full Text Available The application of species distribution models (SDMs in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis were used to i determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM, relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080. Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

  8. Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio

    2012-01-01

    The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

  9. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

  10. Modeling the Distribution of Rare or Cryptic Bird Species of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsai-Yu Wu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available For the study of the macroecology and conservation of Taiwan’s birds, there was an urgent need to develop distribution models of bird species whose distribution had never before been modeled. Therefore, we here model the distributions of 27 mostly rare and cryptic breeding bird species using a statistical approach which has been shown to be especially reliable for modeling species with a low sample size of presence localities, namely the maximum entropy (Maxent modeling technique. For this purpose, we began with a dedicated attempt to collate as much high-quality distributional data as possible, assembling databases from several scientific reports, contacting individual data recorders and searching publicly accessible database, the internet and the available literature. This effort resulted in 2022 grid cells of 1 × 1 km size being associated with a presence record for one of the 27 species. These records and 10 pre-selected environmental variables were then used to model each species’ probability distribution which we show here with all grid cells below the lowest presence threshold being converted to zeros. We then in detail discuss the interpretation and applicability of these distributions, whereby we pay close attention to habitat requirements, the intactness and fragmentation of their habitat, the general detectability of the species and data reliability. This study is another one in an ongoing series of studies which highlight the usefulness of using large electronic databases and modern analytical methods to help with the monitoring and assessment of Taiwan’s bird species.

  11. Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

    2013-01-01

    The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

  12. Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatima, Syeda Hira; Atif, Salman; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Zaidi, Farrah; Hussain, Ejaz

    2016-03-01

    Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon. The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions. Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species. In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

    2015-01-01

    Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

  14. Comparison of a species distribution model and a process model from a hierarchical perspective to quantify effects of projected climate change on tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser

    2015-01-01

    Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...

  15. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  16. Predictive models of threatened plant species distribution in the Iberian arid south-east

    OpenAIRE

    Benito, Blas M.

    2013-01-01

    Poster on the distribution of three rare, endemic and endangered annual plants of arid zones in the south-eastern Iberian peninsula. Presented in the workshop "Predictive Modelling of Species Distribution: New Tools for the XXI Century (Baeza, Spain, november 2005).

  17. Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

  18. Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

    2017-01-01

    We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

  19. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  20. Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosser, Diann J.; Ding, Changqing; Erwin, R. Michael; Mundkur, Taej; Sullivan, Jeffery D.; Ellis, Erle C.

    2018-01-01

    BackgroundA number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China.MethodsFaced with limited data, we built species distribution models using a habitat suitability approach for China’s breeding and non-breeding (hereafter, wintering) waterfowl. An extensive review of the literature was used to determine model parameters for habitat modeling. Habitat relationships were implemented in GIS using land cover covariates. Wintering models were validated using waterfowl census data, while breeding models, though developed for many species, were only validated for the one species with sufficient telemetry data available.ResultsWe developed suitability models for 42 waterfowl species (30 breeding and 39 wintering) at 1 km resolution for the extent of China, along with cumulative and genus level species richness maps. Breeding season models showed highest waterfowl suitability in wetlands of the high-elevation west-central plateau and northeastern China. Wintering waterfowl suitability was highest in the lowland regions of southeastern China. Validation measures indicated strong performance in predicting species presence. Comparing our model outputs to China’s protected areas indicated that breeding habitat was generally better covered than wintering habitat, and identified locations for which additional research and protection should be prioritized.ConclusionsThese suitability models are the first available for many of China’s waterfowl species, and have direct utility to conservation and habitat planning and prioritizing management of critically

  1. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  2. Species distribution models and ecological suitability analysis for potential tick vectors of lyme disease in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illoldi-Rangel, Patricia; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sissel, Blake; Trout Fryxell, Rebecca; Gordillo-Pérez, Guadalupe; Rodríguez-Moreno, Angel; Williamson, Phillip; Montiel-Parra, Griselda; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2012-01-01

    Species distribution models were constructed for ten Ixodes species and Amblyomma cajennense for a region including Mexico and Texas. The model was based on a maximum entropy algorithm that used environmental layers to predict the relative probability of presence for each taxon. For Mexico, species geographic ranges were predicted by restricting the models to cells which have a higher probability than the lowest probability of the cells in which a presence record was located. There was spatial nonconcordance between the distributions of Amblyomma cajennense and the Ixodes group with the former restricted to lowlands and mainly the eastern coast of Mexico and the latter to montane regions with lower temperature. The risk of Lyme disease is, therefore, mainly present in the highlands where some Ixodes species are known vectors; if Amblyomma cajennense turns out to be a competent vector, the area of risk also extends to the lowlands and the east coast.

  3. Species distribution modeling based on the automated identification of citizen observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botella, Christophe; Joly, Alexis; Bonnet, Pierre; Monestiez, Pascal; Munoz, François

    2018-02-01

    A species distribution model computed with automatically identified plant observations was developed and evaluated to contribute to future ecological studies. We used deep learning techniques to automatically identify opportunistic plant observations made by citizens through a popular mobile application. We compared species distribution modeling of invasive alien plants based on these data to inventories made by experts. The trained models have a reasonable predictive effectiveness for some species, but they are biased by the massive presence of cultivated specimens. The method proposed here allows for fine-grained and regular monitoring of some species of interest based on opportunistic observations. More in-depth investigation of the typology of the observations and the sampling bias should help improve the approach in the future.

  4. Species Distribution Models and Ecological Suitability Analysis for Potential Tick Vectors of Lyme Disease in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Illoldi-Rangel

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models were constructed for ten Ixodes species and Amblyomma cajennense for a region including Mexico and Texas. The model was based on a maximum entropy algorithm that used environmental layers to predict the relative probability of presence for each taxon. For Mexico, species geographic ranges were predicted by restricting the models to cells which have a higher probability than the lowest probability of the cells in which a presence record was located. There was spatial nonconcordance between the distributions of Amblyomma cajennense and the Ixodes group with the former restricted to lowlands and mainly the eastern coast of Mexico and the latter to montane regions with lower temperature. The risk of Lyme disease is, therefore, mainly present in the highlands where some Ixodes species are known vectors; if Amblyomma cajennense turns out to be a competent vector, the area of risk also extends to the lowlands and the east coast.

  5. Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L. Coxen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1 satellite tracked birds and 2 observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4, and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786 and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639. Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

  6. Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

  7. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  8. The geography of demography: long-term demographic studies and species distribution models reveal a species border limited by adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckhart, V M; Geber, M A; Morris, W F; Fabio, E S; Tiffin, P; Moeller, D A

    2011-10-01

    Potential causes of species' geographic distribution limits fall into two broad classes: (1) limited adaptation across spatially variable environments and (2) limited opportunities to colonize unoccupied areas. Combining demographic studies, analyses of demographic responses to environmental variation, and species distribution models, we investigated the causes of range limits in a model system, the eastern border of the California annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Vital rates of 20 populations varied with growing season temperature and precipitation: fruit number and overwinter survival of 1-year-old seeds declined steeply, while current-year seed germination increased modestly along west-to-east gradients in decreasing temperature, decreasing mean precipitation, and increasing variation in precipitation. Long-term stochastic finite rate of increase, λ(s), exhibited a fourfold range and varied among geologic surface materials as well as with temperature and precipitation. Growth rate declined significantly toward the eastern border, falling below 1 in three of the five easternmost populations. Distribution models employing demographically important environmental variables predicted low habitat favorability beyond the eastern border. Models that filtered or weighted population presences by λ(s) predicted steeper eastward declines in favorability and assigned greater roles in setting the distribution to among-year variation in precipitation and to geologic surface material. These analyses reveal a species border likely set by limited adaptation to declining environmental quality.

  9. Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

  10. Ice age distriutions of European small mammals: insights from species distribution modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fløjgaard, Camilla; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming

    2009-01-01

    limits corresponding to the limits of temperate or boreal forest or arctic tundra were used in the analysis. We developed predictive distribution models based on the species present-day European distributions and validated these against their present-day Siberian ranges. The models with the best...... lemmus and Microtus oeconomus), suitable climate was predicted from the Atlantic coast eastward across central Europe and into Russia. Main conclusions. Our results support the idea of more northerly refuge areas in Europe, indicating that boreal species would have found suitable living conditions over...

  11. Transferability of species distribution models: a functional habitat approach for two regionally threatened butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanreusel, Wouter; Maes, Dirk; Van Dyck, Hans

    2007-02-01

    Numerous models for predicting species distribution have been developed for conservation purposes. Most of them make use of environmental data (e.g., climate, topography, land use) at a coarse grid resolution (often kilometres). Such approaches are useful for conservation policy issues including reserve-network selection. The efficiency of predictive models for species distribution is usually tested on the area for which they were developed. Although highly interesting from the point of view of conservation efficiency, transferability of such models to independent areas is still under debate. We tested the transferability of habitat-based predictive distribution models for two regionally threatened butterflies, the green hairstreak (Callophrys rubi) and the grayling (Hipparchia semele), within and among three nature reserves in northeastern Belgium. We built predictive models based on spatially detailed maps of area-wide distribution and density of ecological resources. We used resources directly related to ecological functions (host plants, nectar sources, shelter, microclimate) rather than environmental surrogate variables. We obtained models that performed well with few resource variables. All models were transferable--although to different degrees--among the independent areas within the same broad geographical region. We argue that habitat models based on essential functional resources could transfer better in space than models that use indirect environmental variables. Because functional variables can easily be interpreted and even be directly affected by terrain managers, these models can be useful tools to guide species-adapted reserve management.

  12. Modeling of the spatial distribution of ten endangered bird species in jurisdiction of Corantioquia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez M, Ana Maria; Alvarez, Esteban

    2006-01-01

    Recently, thanks to advances made in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), techniques have been developed for the construction of models that predict the spatial distribution of species and other attributes of biodiversity. These methods have allowed for the development of objective criteria that are fundamental for making decisions regarding the creation of protected areas systems throughout the world. In this research, the spatial distribution of ten endangered species of birds found within the jurisdiction of CORANTIOQUIA (JDC from here on) was modelled, using GIS techniques. The JDC was divided into 177 squares of 15 x 10 Km and the following variables were quantified within each one: presence or absence of endangered species of birds, rainfall, temperature, sun brightness, relative humidity, day duration, altitude, vegetal cover, slope and primary net productivity. With the help of logistic regression were made predictive models. Based on logistic regressions techniques predictive models were made. These models allow to explain a percentage between 24% and 80% of spatial distribution variability of these species. Those results can help in the identification of valuable zones for the biodiversity conservation. In places where there are neither the time or the economic resources to carry out exhaustive analyses of biodiversity, the models can predict the probable presence of this endangered species

  13. Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Tyler G; Diamond, Sarah E; Kelly, Morgan W

    2015-01-01

    Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and

  14. Implications of movement for species distribution models - Rethinking environmental data tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruneel, Stijn; Gobeyn, Sacha; Verhelst, Pieterjan; Reubens, Jan; Moens, Tom; Goethals, Peter

    2018-07-01

    Movement is considered an essential process in shaping the distributions of species. Nevertheless, most species distribution models (SDMs) still focus solely on environment-species relationships to predict the occurrence of species. Furthermore, the currently used indirect estimates of movement allow to assess habitat accessibility, but do not provide an accurate description of movement. Better proxies of movement are needed to assess the dispersal potential of individual species and to gain a more practical insight in the interconnectivity of communities. Telemetry techniques are rapidly evolving and highly capable to provide explicit descriptions of movement, but their usefulness for SDMs will mainly depend on the ability of these models to deal with hitherto unconsidered ecological processes. More specifically, the integration of movement is likely to affect the environmental data requirements as the connection between environmental and biological data is crucial to provide reliable results. Mobility implies the occupancy of a continuum of space, hence an adequate representation of both geographical and environmental space is paramount to study mobile species distributions. In this context, environmental models, remote sensing techniques and animal-borne environmental sensors are discussed as potential techniques to obtain suitable environmental data. In order to provide an in-depth review of the aforementioned methods, we have chosen to use the modelling of fish distributions as a case study. The high mobility of fish and the often highly variable nature of the aquatic environment generally complicate model development, making it an adequate subject for research. Furthermore, insight into the distribution of fish is of great interest for fish stock assessments and water management worldwide, underlining its practical relevance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Species abundance distributions in neutral models with immigration or mutation and general lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Amaury

    2011-07-01

    We consider a general, neutral, dynamical model of biodiversity. Individuals have i.i.d. lifetime durations, which are not necessarily exponentially distributed, and each individual gives birth independently at constant rate λ. Thus, the population size is a homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process (which is not necessarily a Markov process). We assume that types are clonally inherited. We consider two classes of speciation models in this setting. In the immigration model, new individuals of an entirely new species singly enter the population at constant rate μ (e.g., from the mainland into the island). In the mutation model, each individual independently experiences point mutations in its germ line, at constant rate θ. We are interested in the species abundance distribution, i.e., in the numbers, denoted I(n)(k) in the immigration model and A(n)(k) in the mutation model, of species represented by k individuals, k = 1, 2, . . . , n, when there are n individuals in the total population. In the immigration model, we prove that the numbers (I(t)(k); k ≥ 1) of species represented by k individuals at time t, are independent Poisson variables with parameters as in Fisher's log-series. When conditioning on the total size of the population to equal n, this results in species abundance distributions given by Ewens' sampling formula. In particular, I(n)(k) converges as n → ∞ to a Poisson r.v. with mean γ/k, where γ : = μ/λ. In the mutation model, as n → ∞, we obtain the almost sure convergence of n (-1) A(n)(k) to a nonrandom explicit constant. In the case of a critical, linear birth-death process, this constant is given by Fisher's log-series, namely n(-1) A(n)(k) converges to α(k)/k, where α : = λ/(λ + θ). In both models, the abundances of the most abundant species are briefly discussed.

  16. Predicting geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species (Aves: Furnariidae in South America based on ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria da Salete Gurgel Costa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.

  17. Facilitating political decisions using species distribution models to assess restoration measures in heavily modified estuaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuner, Maike; Weber, Arnd; Schröder, Uwe; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Schröder, Boris

    2016-09-15

    The European Water Framework Directive requires a good ecological potential for heavily modified water bodies. This standard has not been reached for most large estuaries by 2015. Management plans for estuaries fall short in linking implementations between restoration measures and underlying spatial analyses. The distribution of emergent macrophytes - as an indicator of habitat quality - is here used to assess the ecological potential. Emergent macrophytes are capable of settling on gentle tidal flats where hydrodynamic stress is comparatively low. Analyzing their habitats based on spatial data, we set up species distribution models with 'elevation relative to mean high water', 'mean bank slope', and 'length of bottom friction' from shallow water up to the vegetation belt as key predictors representing hydrodynamic stress. Effects of restoration scenarios on habitats were assessed applying these models. Our findings endorse species distribution models as crucial spatial planning tools for implementing restoration measures in modified estuaries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merow, Cory; Smith, Matthew J.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guisan, Antoine; McMahon, Sean M.; Normand, Signe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wuest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Elith, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species

  19. Using Environmental DNA to Improve Species Distribution Models for Freshwater Invaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teja P. Muha

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been reported as a useful tool for the risk assessment and modeling of the pathways of dispersal of freshwater invasive alien species (IAS. Environmental DNA (eDNA is a novel tool that can help detect IAS at their early stage of introduction and additionally improve the data available for a more efficient management. SDMs rely on presence and absence of the species in the study area to infer the predictors affecting species distributions. Presence is verified once a species is detected, but confirmation of absence can be problematic because this depends both on the detectability of the species and the sampling strategy. eDNA is a technique that presents higher detectability and accuracy in comparison to conventional sampling techniques, and can effectively differentiate between presence or absence of specific species or entire communities by using a barcoding or metabarcoding approach. However, a number of potential bias can be introduced during (i sampling, (ii amplification, (iii sequencing, or (iv through the usage of bioinformatics pipelines. Therefore, it is important to report and conduct the field and laboratory procedures in a consistent way, by (i introducing eDNA independent observations, (ii amplifying and sequencing control samples, (iii achieving quality sequence reads by appropriate clean-up steps, (iv controlling primer amplification preferences, (v introducing PCR-free sequence capturing, (vi estimating primer detection capabilities through controlled experiments and/or (vii post-hoc introduction of “site occupancy-detection models.” With eDNA methodology becoming increasingly routine, its use is strongly recommended to retrieve species distributional data for SDMs.

  20. Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

    2011-01-01

    If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables

  1. Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

    OpenAIRE

    West, Amanda M.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Talbert, Colin; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tama...

  2. Proximal Soil Sensing - A Contribution for Species Habitat Distribution Modelling of Earthworms in Agricultural Soils?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirrmann, Michael; Joschko, Monika; Gebbers, Robin; Kramer, Eckart; Zörner, Mirjam; Barkusky, Dietmar; Timmer, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Earthworms are important for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and serve as indicators of soil fertility. However, detection of earthworms is time-consuming, which hinders the assessment of earthworm abundances with high sampling density over entire fields. Recent developments of mobile terrestrial sensor platforms for proximal soil sensing (PSS) provided new tools for collecting dense spatial information of soils using various sensing principles. Yet, the potential of PSS for assessing earthworm habitats is largely unexplored. This study investigates whether PSS data contribute to the spatial prediction of earthworm abundances in species distribution models of agricultural soils. Proximal soil sensing data, e.g., soil electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and near infrared absorbance (NIR), were collected in real-time in a field with two management strategies (reduced tillage / conventional tillage) and sandy to loam soils. PSS was related to observations from a long-term (11 years) earthworm observation study conducted at 42 plots. Earthworms were sampled from 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.2 m³ soil blocks and identified to species level. Sensor data were highly correlated with earthworm abundances observed in reduced tillage but less correlated with earthworm abundances observed in conventional tillage. This may indicate that management influences the sensor-earthworm relationship. Generalized additive models and state-space models showed that modelling based on data fusion from EC, pH, and NIR sensors produced better results than modelling without sensor data or data from just a single sensor. Regarding the individual earthworm species, particular sensor combinations were more appropriate than others due to the different habitat requirements of the earthworms. Earthworm species with soil-specific habitat preferences were spatially predicted with higher accuracy by PSS than more ubiquitous species. Our findings suggest that PSS contributes to the spatial modelling of

  3. Incorporating plant fossil data into species distribution models is not straightforward: Pitfalls and possible solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Amat, Elena; Rubiales, Juan Manuel; Morales-Molino, César; García-Amorena, Ignacio

    2017-08-01

    The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses.

  4. Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibañez-Justicia, Adolfo; Cianci, Daniela

    2015-05-01

    Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Netherlands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Random forest models were used to link the occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validated. The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and North Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were important for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. The areas identified by the model as suitable and with high abundance of An. plumbeus, are

  5. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  6. Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Polce, Chiara; van Loon, E Emiel; Raes, Niels; Reemer, Menno; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

    2013-01-01

    Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data

  7. Testing the efficacy of downscaling in species distribution modelling: a comparison between MaxEnt and Favourability Function models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivero, J.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Statistical downscaling is used to improve the knowledge of spatial distributions from broad–scale to fine–scale maps with higher potential for conservation planning. We assessed the effectiveness of downscaling in two commonly used species distribution models: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt and the Favourability Function (FF. We used atlas data (10 x 10 km of the fire salamander Salamandra salamandra distribution in southern Spain to derive models at a 1 x 1 km resolution. Downscaled models were assessed using an independent dataset of the species’ distribution at 1 x 1 km. The Favourability model showed better downscaling performance than the MaxEnt model, and the models that were based on linear combinations of environmental variables performed better than models allowing higher flexibility. The Favourability model minimized model overfitting compared to the MaxEnt model.

  8. Testing the efficacy of downscaling in species distribution modelling: a comparison between MaxEnt and Favourability Function models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivero, J.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Skidmore, A.K.; Real, R.

    2016-07-01

    Statistical downscaling is used to improve the knowledge of spatial distributions from broad–scale to fine–scale maps with higher potential for conservation planning. We assessed the effectiveness of downscaling in two commonly used species distribution models: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and the Favourability Function (FF). We used atlas data (10 x 10 km) of the fire salamander Salamandra salamandra distribution in southern Spain to derive models at a 1 x 1 km resolution. Downscaled models were assessed using an independent dataset of the species’ distribution at 1 x 1 km. The Favourability model showed better downscaling performance than the MaxEnt model, and the models that were based on linear combinations of environmental variables performed better than models allowing higher flexibility. The Favourability model minimized model overfitting compared to the MaxEnt model. (Author)

  9. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

  10. The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soultan, Alaaeldin; Safi, Kamran

    2017-01-01

    Digitized species occurrence data provide an unprecedented source of information for ecologists and conservationists. Species distribution model (SDM) has become a popular method to utilise these data for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of species, and for modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to study the impact of noise in species occurrence data (namely sample size and positional accuracy) on the performance and reliability of SDM, considering the multiplicative impact of SDM algorithms, species specialisation, and grid resolution. We created a set of four 'virtual' species characterized by different specialisation levels. For each of these species, we built the suitable habitat models using five algorithms at two grid resolutions, with varying sample sizes and different levels of positional accuracy. We assessed the performance and reliability of the SDM according to classic model evaluation metrics (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic) and model agreement metrics (Overall Concordance Correlation Coefficient and geographic niche overlap) respectively. Our study revealed that species specialisation had by far the most dominant impact on the SDM. In contrast to previous studies, we found that for widespread species, low sample size and low positional accuracy were acceptable, and useful distribution ranges could be predicted with as few as 10 species occurrences. Range predictions for narrow-ranged species, however, were sensitive to sample size and positional accuracy, such that useful distribution ranges required at least 20 species occurrences. Against expectations, the MAXENT algorithm poorly predicted the distribution of specialist species at low sample size.

  11. Using maximum topology matching to explore differences in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poco, Jorge; Doraiswamy, Harish; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Silva, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) are used to help understand what drives the distribution of various plant and animal species. These models are typically high dimensional scalar functions, where the dimensions of the domain correspond to predictor variables of the model algorithm. Understanding and exploring the differences between models help ecologists understand areas where their data or understanding of the system is incomplete and will help guide further investigation in these regions. These differences can also indicate an important source of model to model uncertainty. However, it is cumbersome and often impractical to perform this analysis using existing tools, which allows for manual exploration of the models usually as 1-dimensional curves. In this paper, we propose a topology-based framework to help ecologists explore the differences in various SDMs directly in the high dimensional domain. In order to accomplish this, we introduce the concept of maximum topology matching that computes a locality-aware correspondence between similar extrema of two scalar functions. The matching is then used to compute the similarity between two functions. We also design a visualization interface that allows ecologists to explore SDMs using their topological features and to study the differences between pairs of models found using maximum topological matching. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework through several use cases using different data sets and report the feedback obtained from ecologists.

  12. Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidi, Farrah; Fatima, Syeda Hira; Khisroon, Muhammad; Gul, Ayesha

    2016-10-01

    North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myiasis in the region during 2012-2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sarcophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Montane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco-geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range

  13. Fitting and comparing competing models of the species abundance distribution: assessment and prospect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Matthews

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A species abundance distribution (SAD characterises patterns in the commonness and rarity of all species within an ecological community. As such, the SAD provides the theoretical foundation for a number of other biogeographical and macroecological patterns, such as the species–area relationship, as well as being an interesting pattern in its own right. While there has been resurgence in the study of SADs in the last decade, less focus has been placed on methodology in SAD research, and few attempts have been made to synthesise the vast array of methods which have been employed in SAD model evaluation. As such, our review has two aims. First, we provide a general overview of SADs, including descriptions of the commonly used distributions, plotting methods and issues with evaluating SAD models. Second, we review a number of recent advances in SAD model fitting and comparison. We conclude by providing a list of recommendations for fitting and evaluating SAD models. We argue that it is time for SAD studies to move away from many of the traditional methods available for fitting and evaluating models, such as sole reliance on the visual examination of plots, and embrace statistically rigorous techniques. In particular, we recommend the use of both goodness-of-fit tests and model-comparison analyses because each provides unique information which one can use to draw inferences.

  14. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

    2018-09-01

    Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. EVALUATING THE NOVEL METHODS ON SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING IN COMPLEX FOREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Tu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of species distribution has become a focus in ecology. For predicting a result more effectively and accurately, some novel methods have been proposed recently, like support vector machine (SVM and maximum entropy (MAXENT. However, high complexity in the forest, like that in Taiwan, will make the modeling become even harder. In this study, we aim to explore which method is more applicable to species distribution modeling in the complex forest. Castanopsis carlesii (long-leaf chinkapin, LLC, growing widely in Taiwan, was chosen as the target species because its seeds are an important food source for animals. We overlaid the tree samples on the layers of altitude, slope, aspect, terrain position, and vegetation index derived from SOPT-5 images, and developed three models, MAXENT, SVM, and decision tree (DT, to predict the potential habitat of LLCs. We evaluated these models by two sets of independent samples in different site and the effect on the complexity of forest by changing the background sample size (BSZ. In the forest with low complex (small BSZ, the accuracies of SVM (kappa = 0.87 and DT (0.86 models were slightly higher than that of MAXENT (0.84. In the more complex situation (large BSZ, MAXENT kept high kappa value (0.85, whereas SVM (0.61 and DT (0.57 models dropped significantly due to limiting the habitat close to samples. Therefore, MAXENT model was more applicable to predict species’ potential habitat in the complex forest; whereas SVM and DT models would tend to underestimate the potential habitat of LLCs.

  16. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    OpenAIRE

    Duscher Tanja; Nopp-Mayr Ursula

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known...

  17. Proximal Soil Sensing - A Contribution for Species Habitat Distribution Modelling of Earthworms in Agricultural Soils?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schirrmann

    Full Text Available Earthworms are important for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and serve as indicators of soil fertility. However, detection of earthworms is time-consuming, which hinders the assessment of earthworm abundances with high sampling density over entire fields. Recent developments of mobile terrestrial sensor platforms for proximal soil sensing (PSS provided new tools for collecting dense spatial information of soils using various sensing principles. Yet, the potential of PSS for assessing earthworm habitats is largely unexplored. This study investigates whether PSS data contribute to the spatial prediction of earthworm abundances in species distribution models of agricultural soils.Proximal soil sensing data, e.g., soil electrical conductivity (EC, pH, and near infrared absorbance (NIR, were collected in real-time in a field with two management strategies (reduced tillage / conventional tillage and sandy to loam soils. PSS was related to observations from a long-term (11 years earthworm observation study conducted at 42 plots. Earthworms were sampled from 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.2 m³ soil blocks and identified to species level. Sensor data were highly correlated with earthworm abundances observed in reduced tillage but less correlated with earthworm abundances observed in conventional tillage. This may indicate that management influences the sensor-earthworm relationship. Generalized additive models and state-space models showed that modelling based on data fusion from EC, pH, and NIR sensors produced better results than modelling without sensor data or data from just a single sensor. Regarding the individual earthworm species, particular sensor combinations were more appropriate than others due to the different habitat requirements of the earthworms. Earthworm species with soil-specific habitat preferences were spatially predicted with higher accuracy by PSS than more ubiquitous species.Our findings suggest that PSS contributes to the spatial

  18. Modeling species distributions from heterogeneous data for the biogeographic regionalization of the European bryophyte flora.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén G Mateo

    Full Text Available The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1 regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2 their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran's I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial

  19. Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria -Dutch hoverflies as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Carvalheiro, L.G.; Polce, C.; van Loon, E.E.; Raes, N.; Reemer, M.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM

  20. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  1. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Redding

    Full Text Available Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT, to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA, when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account

  2. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

    2017-01-01

    Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial

  3. Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an

  4. A Distributed Agent Implementation of Multiple Species Flocking Model for Document Partitioning Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Xiaohui [ORNL; Potok, Thomas E [ORNL

    2006-01-01

    The Flocking model, first proposed by Craig Reynolds, is one of the first bio-inspired computational collective behavior models that has many popular applications, such as animation. Our early research has resulted in a flock clustering algorithm that can achieve better performance than the Kmeans or the Ant clustering algorithms for data clustering. This algorithm generates a clustering of a given set of data through the embedding of the highdimensional data items on a two-dimensional grid for efficient clustering result retrieval and visualization. In this paper, we propose a bio-inspired clustering model, the Multiple Species Flocking clustering model (MSF), and present a distributed multi-agent MSF approach for document clustering.

  5. Using species distribution modeling to delineate the botanical richness patterns and phytogeographical regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming-Gang; Slik, J. W. Ferry; Ma, Ke-Ping

    2016-03-01

    The millions of plant specimens that have been collected and stored in Chinese herbaria over the past ~110 years have recently been digitized and geo-referenced. Here we use this unique collection data set for species distribution modeling exercise aiming at mapping & explaining the botanical richness; delineating China’s phytogeographical regions and investigating the environmental drivers of the dissimilarity patterns. We modeled distributions of 6,828 woody plants using MaxEnt and remove the collection bias using null model. The continental China was divided into different phytogeographical regions based on the dissimilarity patterns. An ordination and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot spatial statistics were used to analysis the environmental drivers of the dissimilarity patterns. We found that the annual precipitation and temperature stability were responsible for observed species diversity. The mechanisms causing dissimilarity pattern seems differ among biogeographical regions. The identified environmental drivers of the dissimilarity patterns for southeast, southwest, northwest and northeast are annual precipitation, topographic & temperature stability, water deficit and temperature instability, respectively. For effective conservation of China’s plant diversity, identifying the historical refuge and protection of high diversity areas in each of the identified floristic regions and their subdivisions will be essential.

  6. Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander

    2016-01-01

    A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental

  7. Continuous gene flow contributes to low global species abundance and distribution of a marine model diatom

    KAUST Repository

    Rastogi, Achal

    2017-08-15

    Unlike terrestrial ecosystems where geographical isolation often leads to a restricted gene flow between species, genetic admixing in aquatic micro-eukaryotes is likely to be frequent. Diatoms inhabit marine ecosystems since the Mesozoic period and presently constitute one of the major primary producers in the world ocean. They are a highly diversified group of eukaryotic phytoplankton with estimates of up to 200,000 species. Since decades, Phaeodactylum tricornutum is used as a model diatom species to characterize the functional pathways, physiology and evolution of diatoms in general. In the current study, using whole genome sequencing of ten P. tricornutum strains, sampled at broad geospatial and temporal scales, we show a continuous dispersal and genetic admixing between geographically isolated strains. We also describe a very high level of heterozygosity and propose it to be a consequence of frequent ancestral admixture. Our finding that P. tricornutum sequences are plausibly detectable at low but broadly distributed levels in the world ocean further suggests that high admixing between geographically isolated strains may create a significant bottleneck, thus influencing their global abundance and distribution in nature. Finally, in an attempt to understand the functional implications of genetic diversity between different P. tricornutum ecotypes, we show the effects of domestication in inducing changes in the selection pressure on many genes and metabolic pathways. We propose these findings to have significant implications for understanding the genetic structure of diatom populations in nature and provide a framework to assess the genomic underpinnings of their ecological success.

  8. Continuous gene flow contributes to low global species abundance and distribution of a marine model diatom

    KAUST Repository

    Rastogi, Achal; Deton-Cabanillas, Anne-Flore; Rocha Jimenez Vieira, Fabio; Veluchamy, Alaguraj; Cantrel, Catherine; Wang, Gaohong; Vanormelingen, Pieter; Bowler, Chris; Piganeau, Gwenael; Tirichine, Leila; Hu, Hanhua

    2017-01-01

    Unlike terrestrial ecosystems where geographical isolation often leads to a restricted gene flow between species, genetic admixing in aquatic micro-eukaryotes is likely to be frequent. Diatoms inhabit marine ecosystems since the Mesozoic period and presently constitute one of the major primary producers in the world ocean. They are a highly diversified group of eukaryotic phytoplankton with estimates of up to 200,000 species. Since decades, Phaeodactylum tricornutum is used as a model diatom species to characterize the functional pathways, physiology and evolution of diatoms in general. In the current study, using whole genome sequencing of ten P. tricornutum strains, sampled at broad geospatial and temporal scales, we show a continuous dispersal and genetic admixing between geographically isolated strains. We also describe a very high level of heterozygosity and propose it to be a consequence of frequent ancestral admixture. Our finding that P. tricornutum sequences are plausibly detectable at low but broadly distributed levels in the world ocean further suggests that high admixing between geographically isolated strains may create a significant bottleneck, thus influencing their global abundance and distribution in nature. Finally, in an attempt to understand the functional implications of genetic diversity between different P. tricornutum ecotypes, we show the effects of domestication in inducing changes in the selection pressure on many genes and metabolic pathways. We propose these findings to have significant implications for understanding the genetic structure of diatom populations in nature and provide a framework to assess the genomic underpinnings of their ecological success.

  9. Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M; Evangelista, Paul H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Young, Nicholas E; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Talbert, Colin; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ryan

    2016-10-11

    Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) along the Arkansas River in Southeastern Colorado. The models tested included boosted regression trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear model (GLM), and Maxent. These analyses were conducted using a newly developed software package called the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). All models were trained with 499 presence points, 10,000 pseudo-absence points, and predictor variables acquired from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor over an eight-month period to distinguish tamarisk from native riparian vegetation using detection of phenological differences. From the Landsat scenes, we used individual bands and calculated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and tasseled capped transformations. All five models identified current tamarisk distribution on the landscape successfully based on threshold independent and threshold dependent evaluation metrics with independent location data. To account for model specific differences, we produced an ensemble of all five models with map output highlighting areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of species distribution models in analyzing remotely sensed data and the utility of ensemble mapping, and showcase the capability of SAHM in pre-processing and executing multiple complex models.

  10. Integrating remote sensing with species distribution models; Mapping tamarisk invasions using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda M.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Talbert, Colin; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) along the Arkansas River in Southeastern Colorado. The models tested included boosted regression trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear model (GLM), and Maxent. These analyses were conducted using a newly developed software package called the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). All models were trained with 499 presence points, 10,000 pseudo-absence points, and predictor variables acquired from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor over an eight-month period to distinguish tamarisk from native riparian vegetation using detection of phenological differences. From the Landsat scenes, we used individual bands and calculated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and tasseled capped transformations. All five models identified current tamarisk distribution on the landscape successfully based on threshold independent and threshold dependent evaluation metrics with independent location data. To account for model specific differences, we produced an ensemble of all five models with map output highlighting areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of species distribution models in analyzing remotely sensed data and the utility of ensemble mapping, and showcase the capability of SAHM in pre-processing and executing multiple complex models.

  11. A Systematic Review of Marine-Based Species Distribution Models (SDMs with Recommendations for Best Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor M. Robinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the marine environment Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used in hundreds of papers for predicting the present and future geographic range and environmental niche of species. We have analyzed ways in which SDMs are being applied to marine species in order to recommend best practice in future studies. This systematic review was registered as a protocol on the Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/tngs6/. The literature reviewed (236 papers was published between 1992 and July 2016. The number of papers significantly increased through time (R2 = 0.92, p < 0.05. The studies were predominantly carried out in the Temperate Northern Atlantic (45% followed by studies of global scale (11% and studies in Temperate Australasia (10%. The majority of studies reviewed focused on theoretical ecology (37% including investigations of biological invasions by non-native organisms, conservation planning (19%, and climate change predictions (17%. Most of the studies were published in ecological, multidisciplinary, or biodiversity conservation journals. Most of the studies (94% failed to report the amount of uncertainty derived from data deficiencies and model parameters. Best practice recommendations are proposed here to ensure that novice and advanced SDM users can (a understand the main elements of SDMs, (b reproduce standard methods and analysis, and (c identify potential limitations with their data. We suggest that in the future, studies of marine SDMs should report on key features of the approaches employed, data deficiencies, the selection of the best explanatory model, and the approach taken to validate the SDM results. In addition, based on the literature reviewed, we suggest that future marine SDMs should account for uncertainty levels as part of the modeling process.

  12. Climatic zoning of chia (Salvia hispanica L.) in Chile using a species distribution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortés, D.; Silva, H.; Baginsky, C.; Morales, L.

    2017-01-01

    Salvia hispanica L., known as chia, is a plant species originally from tropical and subtropical Mesoamerica. It is economically important because its seeds produce omega-3, thus its demand has increased in Chile and internationally. As there is no commercial production in Chile, we investigated the places in the country where this species could be cultivated in order to satisfy at the least the national demand. The aim of the study was to quantify the main climatic requirements of chia and to produce a climatic aptitude map for chia cultivation in Chile. The methodology was based on the Maxent species distribution model. We used 78 georeferenced data points where chia is grown throughout the world, mostly from the GBIF database, along with raster climatic layers from the Worldclim project. We estimated the performance curves of annual precipitation and temperature along with their respective optimal and critical values, in analogy with the Ecocrop method. The maps used two scenarios for crops in different conditions, with and without irrigation. The results indicated that the intermediate depression and coastal edge of mainly the Arica y Parinacota, Tarapacá, Antofagasta and Atacama regions have optimum conditions for irrigated crops, but it would be impossible in rainfed conditions. We conclude that chia’s cultivation niche is reduced due to its tropical climate requirements; however, it can be cultivated under irrigation in northern Chile.

  13. Climatic zoning of chia (Salvia hispanica L. in Chile using a species distribution model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Cortés

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Salvia hispanica L., known as chia, is a plant species originally from tropical and subtropical Mesoamerica. It is economically important because its seeds produce omega-3, thus its demand has increased in Chile and internationally. As there is no commercial production in Chile, we investigated the places in the country where this species could be cultivated in order to satisfy at the least the national demand. The aim of the study was to quantify the main climatic requirements of chia and to produce a climatic aptitude map for chia cultivation in Chile. The methodology was based on the Maxent species distribution model. We used 78 georeferenced data points where chia is grown throughout the world, mostly from the GBIF database, along with raster climatic layers from the Worldclim project. We estimated the performance curves of annual precipitation and temperature along with their respective optimal and critical values, in analogy with the Ecocrop method. The maps used two scenarios for crops in different conditions, with and without irrigation. The results indicated that the intermediate depression and coastal edge of mainly the Arica y Parinacota, Tarapacá, Antofagasta and Atacama regions have optimum conditions for irrigated crops, but it would be impossible in rainfed conditions. We conclude that chia’s cultivation niche is reduced due to its tropical climate requirements; however, it can be cultivated under irrigation in northern Chile.

  14. Climatic zoning of chia (Salvia hispanica L.) in Chile using a species distribution model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortés, D.; Silva, H.; Baginsky, C.; Morales, L.

    2017-07-01

    Salvia hispanica L., known as chia, is a plant species originally from tropical and subtropical Mesoamerica. It is economically important because its seeds produce omega-3, thus its demand has increased in Chile and internationally. As there is no commercial production in Chile, we investigated the places in the country where this species could be cultivated in order to satisfy at the least the national demand. The aim of the study was to quantify the main climatic requirements of chia and to produce a climatic aptitude map for chia cultivation in Chile. The methodology was based on the Maxent species distribution model. We used 78 georeferenced data points where chia is grown throughout the world, mostly from the GBIF database, along with raster climatic layers from the Worldclim project. We estimated the performance curves of annual precipitation and temperature along with their respective optimal and critical values, in analogy with the Ecocrop method. The maps used two scenarios for crops in different conditions, with and without irrigation. The results indicated that the intermediate depression and coastal edge of mainly the Arica y Parinacota, Tarapacá, Antofagasta and Atacama regions have optimum conditions for irrigated crops, but it would be impossible in rainfed conditions. We conclude that chia’s cultivation niche is reduced due to its tropical climate requirements; however, it can be cultivated under irrigation in northern Chile.

  15. Assessing historical fish community composition using surveys, historical collection data, and species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labay, Ben; Cohen, Adam E; Sissel, Blake; Hendrickson, Dean A; Martin, F Douglas; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2011-01-01

    Accurate establishment of baseline conditions is critical to successful management and habitat restoration. We demonstrate the ability to robustly estimate historical fish community composition and assess the current status of the urbanized Barton Creek watershed in central Texas, U.S.A. Fish species were surveyed in 2008 and the resulting data compared to three sources of fish occurrence information: (i) historical records from a museum specimen database and literature searches; (ii) a nearly identical survey conducted 15 years earlier; and (iii) a modeled historical community constructed with species distribution models (SDMs). This holistic approach, and especially the application of SDMs, allowed us to discover that the fish community in Barton Creek was more diverse than the historical data and survey methods alone indicated. Sixteen native species with high modeled probability of occurrence within the watershed were not found in the 2008 survey, seven of these were not found in either survey or in any of the historical collection records. Our approach allowed us to more rigorously establish the true baseline for the pre-development fish fauna and then to more accurately assess trends and develop hypotheses regarding factors driving current fish community composition to better inform management decisions and future restoration efforts. Smaller, urbanized freshwater systems, like Barton Creek, typically have a relatively poor historical biodiversity inventory coupled with long histories of alteration, and thus there is a propensity for land managers and researchers to apply inaccurate baseline standards. Our methods provide a way around that limitation by using SDMs derived from larger and richer biodiversity databases of a broader geographic scope. Broadly applied, we propose that this technique has potential to overcome limitations of popular bioassessment metrics (e.g., IBI) to become a versatile and robust management tool for determining status of

  16. Fish species of greatest conservation need in wadeable Iowa streams: current status and effectiveness of Aquatic Gap Program distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindt, Anthony R.; Pierce, Clay; Quist, Michael C.

    2012-01-01

    Effective conservation of fish species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) requires an understanding of species–habitat relationships and distributional trends. Thus, modeling the distribution of fish species across large spatial scales may be a valuable tool for conservation planning. Our goals were to evaluate the status of 10 fish SGCN in wadeable Iowa streams and to test the effectiveness of Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) species distribution models. We sampled fish assemblages from 86 wadeable stream segments in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa during 2009 and 2010 to provide contemporary, independent fish species presence–absence data. The frequencies of occurrence in stream segments where species were historically documented varied from 0.0% for redfin shiner Lythrurus umbratilis to 100.0% for American brook lampreyLampetra appendix, with a mean of 53.0%, suggesting that the status of Iowa fish SGCN is highly variable. Cohen's kappa values and other model performance measures were calculated by comparing field-collected presence–absence data with IAGAP model–predicted presences and absences for 12 fish SGCN. Kappa values varied from 0.00 to 0.50, with a mean of 0.15. The models only predicted the occurrences of banded darterEtheostoma zonale, southern redbelly dace Phoxinus erythrogaster, and longnose daceRhinichthys cataractae more accurately than would be expected by chance. Overall, the accuracy of the twelve models was low, with a mean correct classification rate of 58.3%. Poor model performance probably reflects the difficulties associated with modeling the distribution of rare species and the inability of the large-scale habitat variables used in IAGAP models to explain the variation in fish species occurrences. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the confidence in species distribution model predictions with an independent data set and the need for long-term monitoring to better understand the

  17. Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

    2015-08-01

    Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

  18. Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

    2009-01-01

    Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

  19. Predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (Aves: Accipitridae) in southern Spain: statistical models work better than existing maps

    OpenAIRE

    Bustamante, Javier; Seoane, Javier

    2004-01-01

    Aim To test the effectiveness of statistical models based on explanatory environmental variables vs. existing distribution information (maps and breeding atlas), for predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (family Accipitridae): common buzzard Buteo buteo (Linnaeus, 1758), short-toed eagle Circaetus gallicus (Gmelin, 1788), booted eagle Hieraaetus pennatus (Gmelin, 1788) and black kite Milvus migrans (Boddaert, 1783). Location Andalusia, southe...

  20. Community structure informs species geographic distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Montesinos-Navarro, Alicia

    2018-05-23

    Understanding what determines species\\' geographic distributions is crucial for assessing global change threats to biodiversity. Measuring limits on distributions is usually, and necessarily, done with data at large geographic extents and coarse spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. \\'community structure\\') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales, and are often available for relatively extensive areas, so could be useful for explaining species distributions. We demonstrate that Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) can overcome several challenges to including community structure into studies of species distributions, despite having been little used to date. We hypothesized that the relative abundance of coexisting species can improve predictions of species distributions. In 1570 assemblages of 68 Mediterranean woody plant species we used BNI to incorporate community structure into Species Distribution Models (SDMs), alongside environmental information. Information on species associations improved SDM predictions of community structure and species distributions moderately, though for some habitat specialists the deviance explained increased by up to 15%. We demonstrate that most species associations (95%) were positive and occurred between species with ecologically similar traits. This suggests that SDM improvement could be because species co-occurrences are a proxy for local ecological processes. Our study shows that Bayesian Networks, when interpreted carefully, can be used to include local conditions into measurements of species\\' large-scale distributions, and this information can improve the predictions of species distributions.

  1. Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orien M W Richmond

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of

  2. Developing MODIS-based cloud climatologies to aid species distribution modeling and conservation activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael William Douglas

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available WorldClim (Hijmans et al. 2005 has been the de-facto source of basic climatological analyses for most species distribution modeling research and conservation science applications because of its global coverage and fine (<1 km spatial resolution.  However, it has been recognized since its development that there are limitations in data-poor regions, especially with regard to the precipitation analyses.  Here we describe procedures to develop a satellite-based daytime cloudiness climatology that better reflects the variations in vegetation cover in many regions of the globe than do the WorldClim precipitation products.  Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS imagery from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Terra and Aqua sun-synchronous satellites have recently been used to develop multi-year climatologies of cloudiness.  Several procedures exist for developing such climatologies.  We first discuss a simple procedure that uses brightness thresholds to identify clouds.  We compare these results with those from a more complex procedure: the MODIS Cloud Mask product, recently averaged into climatological products by Wilson and Jetz (2016.  We discuss advantages and limitations of both approaches.  We also speculate on further work that will be needed to improve the usefulness of these MODIS-based climatologies of cloudiness. Despite limitations of current MODIS-based climatology products, they have the potential to greatly improve our understanding of the distribution of biota across the globe.  We show examples from oceanic islands and arid coastlines in the subtropics and tropics where the MODIS products should be of special value in predicting the observed vegetation cover.  Some important applications of reliable climatologies based on MODIS imagery products will include 1 helping to restore long-degraded cloud-impacted environments; 2 improving estimations of the spatial distribution of cloud

  3. Uncovering the drivers of host-associated microbiota with joint species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björk, Johannes R; Hui, Francis K C; O'Hara, Robert B; Montoya, Jose M

    2018-06-01

    In addition to the processes structuring free-living communities, host-associated microbiota are directly or indirectly shaped by the host. Therefore, microbiota data have a hierarchical structure where samples are nested under one or several variables representing host-specific factors, often spanning multiple levels of biological organization. Current statistical methods do not accommodate this hierarchical data structure and therefore cannot explicitly account for the effect of the host in structuring the microbiota. We introduce a novel extension of joint species distribution models (JSDMs) which can straightforwardly accommodate and discern between effects such as host phylogeny and traits, recorded covariates such as diet and collection site, among other ecological processes. Our proposed methodology includes powerful yet familiar outputs seen in community ecology overall, including (a) model-based ordination to visualize and quantify the main patterns in the data; (b) variance partitioning to assess how influential the included host-specific factors are in structuring the microbiota; and (c) co-occurrence networks to visualize microbe-to-microbe associations. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Modelling planktic foraminifer growth and distribution using an ecophysiological multi-species approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lombard, Fabien; Labeyrie, L.; Michel, E.

    2011-01-01

    We present an eco-physiological model reproducing the growth of eight foraminifer species (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, Globigerinella siphonifera and Orbulina universa...... in the marine carbon cycle....... ocean (PISCES) instead of satellite images as forcing variables gives also good results, but with lower efficiency (58.9%). Compared to core tops observations, the model also correctly reproduces the relative worldwide abundance and the diversity of the eight species when using either satellite data...

  5. Modeling the Potential Distribution of Picea chihuahuana Martínez, an Endangered Species at the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Aguilar-Soto

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs help identify areas for the development of populations or communities to prevent extinctions, especially in the face of the global environmental change. This study modeled the potential distribution of the tree Picea chihuahuana Martínez, a species in danger of extinction, using the maximum entropy modeling method (MaxEnt at three scales: local, state and national. We used a total of 38 presence data from the Sierra Madre Occidental. At the local scale, we compared MaxEnt with the reclassification and overlay method integrated in a geographic information system. MaxEnt generated maps with a high predictive capability (AUC > 0.97. The distribution of P. chihuahuana is defined by vegetation type and minimum temperature at national and state scales. At the local scale, both models calculated similar areas for the potential distribution of the species; the variables that better defined the species distribution were vegetation type, aspect and distance to water flows. Populations of P. chihuahuana have always been small, but our results show potential habitat greater than the area of the actual distribution. These results provide an insight into the availability of areas suitable for the species’ regeneration, possibly through assisted colonization.

  6. Species Distribution Models for Crop Pollination: A Modelling Framework Applied to Great Britain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polce, C.; Termansen, M.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Boatman, N.D.; Budge, G.E.; Crowe, A.; Garratt, M.P.; Pietravalle, S.; Potts, S.G.; Ramirez, J. A.; Somerwill, K.E.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their

  7. Presence-only Species Distribution Modeling for King Mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) and its 31 Prey Species in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, X.; Simons, J.; Carollo, C.; Sterba-Boatwright, B.; Sadovski, A.

    2016-02-01

    Ecosystem based fisheries management has been broadly recognized throughout the world as a way to achieve better conservation. Therefore, there is a strong need for mapping of multi-species interactions or spatial distributions. Species distribution models are widely applied since information regarding the presence of species is usually only available for limited locations due to the high cost of fisheries surveys. Instead of regular presence and absence records, a large proportion of the fisheries survey data have only presence records. This makes the modeling problem one of one-class classification (presence only), which is much more complex than the regular two-class classification (presence/absence). In this study, four different presence-only species distribution algorithms (Bioclim, Domain, Mahal and Maxent) were applied using 13 environmental parameters (e.g., depth, DO, bottom types) as predictors to model the distribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) and its 31 prey species in the Gulf of Mexico (a total of 13625 georeferenced presence records from OBIS and GBIF were used). Five-fold cross validations were applied for each of the 128 (4 algorithms × 32 species) models. Area under curve (AUC) and correlation coefficient (R) were used to evaluate the model performances. The AUC of the models based on these four algorithms were 0.83±0.14, 0.77±0.16, 0.94±0.06 and 0.94±0.06, respectively; while R for the models were 0.47±0.27, 0.43±0.24, 0.27±0.16 and 0.76±0.16, respectively. Post hoc with Tukey's test showed that AUC for the Maxent-based models were significantly (pMexico to help managers better manage related fisheries resources.

  8. Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieberg, John R.; Forester, James D.; Street, Garrett M.; Johnson, Douglas H.; ArchMiller, Althea A.; Matthiopoulos, Jason

    2018-01-01

    Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations.

  9. A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

    2015-11-01

    A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had

  10. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duscher Tanja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known to occur in Austria since 1963 and is now widespread in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but its population density remains low. With the help of a species distribution model we identified focal areas for future monitoring and management actions, and we address some management implications for the raccoon dog in Austria. We also determined the environmental predictors of raccoon dog distribution in this alpine country. Its distribution seems to be mainly limited by climatic factors (snow depth, duration of snow cover, winter precipitation and mean annual temperature and is thus linked to elevation. Consequently, we assumed the Alps to be a barrier for the spread of the invasive raccoon dog in Europe; however, its ecological permeability is expected to increase with ongoing climate change.

  11. Modeling Rare Species Distribution at the Edge: The Case for the Vulnerable Endemic Pyrenean Desman in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Williams-Tripp

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The endemic Pyrenean Desman (Galemys pyrenaicus is an elusive, rare, and vulnerable species declining over its entire and narrow range (Spain, Portugal, France, and Andorra. The principal set of conservation measures in France is a 5-years National Action Plan based on 25 conservation actions. Priority is given to update its present distribution and develop tools for predictive distribution models. We aim at building the first species distribution model and map for the northern edge of the range of the Desman and confronting the outputs of the model to target conservation efforts in the context of environmental change. Contrasting to former comparable studies, we derive a simpler model emphasizing the importance of factors linked to precipitation and not to the temperature. If temperature is one of the climate change key factors, depicted shrinkage in Desman distribution could be lower or null at the northern (French edge suggesting thus a major role for this northern population in terms of conservation of the species. Finally, we question the applied issue of temporal and spatial transferability for such environmental favourability models when it is made at the edge of the distribution range.

  12. Balancing energy development and conservation: A method utilizing species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Laubhan, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  13. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  14. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  15. A differential equation for the asymptotic fitness distribution in the Bak-Sneppen model with five species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlemm, Eckhard

    2015-09-01

    The Bak-Sneppen model is an abstract representation of a biological system that evolves according to the Darwinian principles of random mutation and selection. The species in the system are characterized by a numerical fitness value between zero and one. We show that in the case of five species the steady-state fitness distribution can be obtained as a solution to a linear differential equation of order five with hypergeometric coefficients. Similar representations for the asymptotic fitness distribution in larger systems may help pave the way towards a resolution of the question of whether or not, in the limit of infinitely many species, the fitness is asymptotically uniformly distributed on the interval [fc, 1] with fc ≳ 2/3. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling planktic foraminifer growth and distribution using an ecophysiological multi-species approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Lombard

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an eco-physiological model reproducing the growth of eight foraminifer species (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, Globigerinella siphonifera and Orbulina universa. By using the main physiological rates of foraminifers (nutrition, respiration, symbiotic photosynthesis, this model estimates their growth as a function of temperature, light availability, and food concentration. Model parameters are directly derived or calibrated from experimental observations and only the influence of food concentration (estimated via Chlorophyll-a concentration was calibrated against field observations. Growth rates estimated from the model show positive correlation with observed abundance from plankton net data suggesting close coupling between individual growth and population abundance. This observation was used to directly estimate potential abundance from the model-derived growth. Using satellite data, the model simulate the dominant foraminifer species with a 70.5% efficiency when compared to a data set of 576 field observations worldwide. Using outputs of a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES instead of satellite images as forcing variables gives also good results, but with lower efficiency (58.9%. Compared to core tops observations, the model also correctly reproduces the relative worldwide abundance and the diversity of the eight species when using either satellite data either PISCES results. This model allows prediction of the season and water depth at which each species has its maximum abundance potential. This offers promising perspectives for both an improved quantification of paleoceanographic reconstructions and for a better understanding of the foraminiferal role in the marine carbon cycle.

  17. Species distribution models contribute to determine the effect of climate and interspecific interactions in moving hybrid zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engler, J O; Rödder, D; Elle, O; Hochkirch, A; Secondi, J

    2013-11-01

    Climate is a major factor delimiting species' distributions. However, biotic interactions may also be prominent in shaping geographical ranges, especially for parapatric species forming hybrid zones. Determining the relative effect of each factor and their interaction of the contact zone location has been difficult due to the lack of broad scale environmental data. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) now allow disentangling the relative contributions of climate and species' interactions in hybrid zones and their responses to future climate change. We investigated the moving hybrid zone between the breeding ranges of two parapatric passerines in Europe. We conducted SDMs representing the climatic conditions during the breeding season. Our results show a large mismatch between the realized and potential distributions of the two species, suggesting that interspecific interactions, not climate, account for the present location of the contact zone. The SDM scenarios show that the southerly distributed species, Hippolais polyglotta, might lose large parts of its southern distribution under climate change, but a similar gain of novel habitat along the hybrid zone seems unlikely, because interactions with the other species (H. icterina) constrain its range expansion. Thus, whenever biotic interactions limit range expansion, species may become 'trapped' if range loss due to climate change is faster than the movement of the contact zone. An increasing number of moving hybrid zones are being reported, but the proximate causes of movement often remain unclear. In a global context of climate change, we call for more interest in their interactions with climate change. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  18. Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelling, S.

    2017-12-01

    The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

  19. Incorporating interspecific competition into species-distribution mapping by upward scaling of small-scale model projections to the landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Baah-Acheamfour

    Full Text Available There are a number of overarching questions and debate in the scientific community concerning the importance of biotic interactions in species distribution models at large spatial scales. In this paper, we present a framework for revising the potential distribution of tree species native to the Western Ecoregion of Nova Scotia, Canada, by integrating the long-term effects of interspecific competition into an existing abiotic-factor-based definition of potential species distribution (PSD. The PSD model is developed by combining spatially explicit data of individualistic species' response to normalized incident photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content, and growing degree days. A revised PSD model adds biomass output simulated over a 100-year timeframe with a robust forest gap model and scaled up to the landscape using a forestland classification technique. To demonstrate the method, we applied the calculation to the natural range of 16 target tree species as found in 1,240 provincial forest-inventory plots. The revised PSD model, with the long-term effects of interspecific competition accounted for, predicted that eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis, American beech (Fagus grandifolia, white birch (Betula papyrifera, red oak (Quercus rubra, sugar maple (Acer saccharum, and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides would experience a significant decline in their original distribution compared with balsam fir (Abies balsamea, black spruce (Picea mariana, red spruce (Picea rubens, red maple (Acer rubrum L., and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis. True model accuracy improved from 64.2% with original PSD evaluations to 81.7% with revised PSD. Kappa statistics slightly increased from 0.26 (fair to 0.41 (moderate for original and revised PSDs, respectively.

  20. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

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    Lorena Ribeiro de A Carneiro

    Full Text Available Species-distribution models (SDM are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA. However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

  1. Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with pre-equilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

    KAUST Repository

    Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie

    2017-03-17

    Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modelled communities - i.e., with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities - from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in pre-equilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under pre-equilibrium conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with pre-equilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

    KAUST Repository

    Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie; Manica, Andrea; Eriksson, Anders; Rodrigues, Ana S.L.

    2017-01-01

    Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modelled communities - i.e., with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities - from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in pre-equilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under pre-equilibrium conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

    2018-03-01

    The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and test ballast water compliance using the above models.

  4. On the Mass Distribution of Animal Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redner, Sidney; Clauset, Aaron; Schwab, David

    2009-03-01

    We develop a simple diffusion-reaction model to account for the broad and asymmetric distribution of adult body masses for species within related taxonomic groups. The model assumes three basic evolutionary features that control body mass: (i) a fixed lower limit that is set by metabolic constraints, (ii) a species extinction risk that is a weakly increasing function of body mass, and (iii) cladogenetic diffusion, in which daughter species have a slight tendency toward larger mass. The steady-state solution for the distribution of species masses in this model can be expressed in terms of the Airy function. This solution gives mass distributions that are in good agreement with data on 4002 terrestrial mammal species from the late Quaternary and 8617 extant bird species.

  5. The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A

    2013-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

  6. Glacial history of a modern invader: phylogeography and species distribution modelling of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

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    Daniele Porretta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and a vector of human diseases. In the last 30 years, it has spread from its native range in East Asia to Africa, Europe, and the Americas. Although this modern invasion has been the focus of many studies, the history of the species' native populations remains poorly understood. Here, we aimed to assess the role of Pleistocene climatic changes in shaping the current distribution of the species in its native range. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the phylogeography, historical demography, and species distribution of Ae. albopictus native populations at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM. Individuals from 16 localities from East Asia were analyzed for sequence variation at two mitochondrial genes. No phylogeographic structure was observed across the study area. Demographic analyses showed a signature of population expansion that started roughly 70,000 years BP. The occurrence of a continuous and climatically suitable area comprising Southeast China, Indochinese Peninsula, and Sundaland during LGM was indicated by species distribution modelling. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest an evolutionary scenario in which, during the last glacial phase, Ae. albopictus did not experience a fragmentation phase but rather persisted in interconnected populations and experienced demographic growth. The wide ecological flexibility of the species probably played a crucial role in its response to glacial-induced environmental changes. Currently, there is little information on the impact of Pleistocene climatic changes on animal species in East Asia. Most of the studies focused on forest-associated species and suggested cycles of glacial fragmentation and post-glacial expansion. The case of Ae. albopictus, which exhibits a pattern not previously observed in the study area, adds an important piece to our understanding of the Pleistocene history

  7. Species Distribution Model for Management of an Invasive Vine in Forestlands of Eastern Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiao-Hsuan Wang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Invasive plants decrease biodiversity, modify vegetation structure, and inhibit growth and reproduction of native species. Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb. is the most prevalent invasive vine in the forestlands of eastern Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor, and test possible management strategies. We analyzed an extensive dataset collected as part of the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA Forest Service to quantify the range expansion of Japanese honeysuckle in the forestlands of eastern Texas from 2006 to 2011. We then identified potential factors influencing the likelihood of presence of Japanese honeysuckle using boosted regression trees. Our results indicated that the presence of Japanese honeysuckle on sampled plots almost doubled during this period (from 352 to 616 plots, spreading extensively, geographically. The probability of invasion was correlated with variables representing landscape conditions, climatic conditions, forest features, disturbance factors, and forest management activities. Habitats most at risk to invasion under current conditions occurred primarily in northeastern Texas, with a few invasion hotspots in the south. Estimated probabilities of invasion were reduced most by artificial site regeneration, with habitats most at risk again occurring primarily in northeastern Texas.

  8. Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

    2018-02-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data

  9. Transferability of species distribution models for the detection of an invasive alien bryophyte using imaging spectroscopy data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowronek, Sandra; Van De Kerchove, Ruben; Rombouts, Bjorn; Aerts, Raf; Ewald, Michael; Warrie, Jens; Schiefer, Felix; Garzon-Lopez, Carol; Hattab, Tarek; Honnay, Olivier; Lenoir, Jonathan; Rocchini, Duccio; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Somers, Ben; Feilhauer, Hannes

    2018-06-01

    Remote sensing is a promising tool for detecting invasive alien plant species. Mapping and monitoring those species requires accurate detection. So far, most studies relied on models that are locally calibrated and validated against available field data. Consequently, detecting invasive alien species at new study areas requires the acquisition of additional field data which can be expensive and time-consuming. Model transfer might thus provide a viable alternative. Here, we mapped the distribution of the invasive alien bryophyte Campylopus introflexus to i) assess the feasibility of spatially transferring locally calibrated models for species detection between four different heathland areas in Germany and Belgium and ii) test the potential of combining calibration data from different sites in one species distribution model (SDM). In a first step, four different SDMs were locally calibrated and validated by combining field data and airborne imaging spectroscopy data with a spatial resolution ranging from 1.8 m to 4 m and a spectral resolution of about 10 nm (244 bands). A one-class classifier, Maxent, which is based on the comparison of probability densities, was used to generate all SDMs. In a second step, each model was transferred to the three other study areas and the performance of the models for predicting C. introflexus occurrences was assessed. Finally, models combining calibration data from three study areas were built and tested on the remaining fourth site. In this step, different combinations of Maxent modelling parameters were tested. For the local models, the area under the curve for a test dataset (test AUC) was between 0.57-0.78, while the test AUC for the single transfer models ranged between 0.45-0.89. For the combined models the test AUC was between 0.54-0.9. The success of transferring models calibrated in one site to another site highly depended on the respective study site; the combined models provided higher test AUC values than the locally

  10. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Using potential distributions to explore environmental correlates of bat species richness in southern Africa: Effects of model selection and taxonomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Corrie SCHOEMAN, F. P. D. (Woody COTTERILL, Peter J. TAYLOR, Ara MONADJEM

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We tested the prediction that at coarse spatial scales, variables associated with climate, energy, and productivity hypotheses should be better predictor(s of bat species richness than those associated with environmental heterogeneity. Distribution ranges of 64 bat species were estimated with niche-based models informed by 3629 verified museum specimens. The influence of environmental correlates on bat richness was assessed using ordinary least squares regression (OLS, simultaneous autoregressive models (SAR, conditional autoregressive models (CAR, spatial eigenvector-based filtering models (SEVM, and Classification and Regression Trees (CART. To test the assumption of stationarity, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR was used. Bat species richness was highest in the eastern parts of southern Africa, particularly in central Zimbabwe and along the western border of Mozambique. We found support for the predictions of both the habitat heterogeneity and climate/productivity/ energy hypotheses, and as we expected, support varied among bat families and model selection. Richness patterns and predictors of Miniopteridae and Pteropodidae clearly differed from those of other bat families. Altitude range was the only independent variable that was sig­nificant in all models and it was most often the best predictor of bat richness. Standard coefficients of SAR and CAR models were similar to those of OLS models, while those of SEVM models differed. Although GWR indicated that the assumption of stationa­rity was violated, the CART analysis corroborated the findings of the curve-fitting models. Our results identify where additional data on current species ranges, and future conservation action and ecological work are needed [Current Zoology 59 (3: 279–293, 2013].

  12. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian W. Miller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM. SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis. We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  13. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Frid, Leonardo; Chang, Tony; Piekielek, N. B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2015-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  14. Seasonal Habitat Patterns of Japanese Common Squid (Todarodes Pacificus Inferred from Satellite-Based Species Distribution Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene D. Alabia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The understanding of the spatio-temporal distributions of the species habitat in the marine environment is central to effectual resource management and conservation. Here, we examined the potential habitat distributions of Japanese common squid (Todarodes pacificus in the Sea of Japan during a four-year period. The seasonal patterns of preferential habitat were inferred from species distribution models, built using squid occurrences detected from night-time visible images and remotely-sensed environmental factors. The predicted squid habitat (i.e., areas with high habitat suitability revealed strong seasonal variability, characterized by a reduction of potential habitat, confined off of the southern part of the basin during the winter–spring period (December–May. Apparent expansion of preferential habitat occurred during summer–autumn months (June–November, concurrent with the formation of highly suitable habitat patches in certain regions of the Sea of Japan. These habitat distribution patterns were in response to changes in oceanographic conditions and synchronous with seasonal migration of squid. Moreover, the most important variables regulating the spatio-temporal patterns of suitable habitat were sea surface temperature, depth, sea surface height anomaly, and eddy kinetic energy. These variables could affect the habitat distributions through their impacts on growth and survival of squid, local nutrient transport, and the availability of favorable spawning and feeding grounds.

  15. Comparative ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish species in the North Atlantic: Implications for modelling climate and fisheries impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenkel, V. M.; Huse, G.; MacKenzie, B. R.; Alvarez, P.; Arrizabalaga, H.; Castonguay, M.; Goñi, N.; Grégoire, F.; Hátún, H.; Jansen, T.; Jacobsen, J. A.; Lehodey, P.; Lutcavage, M.; Mariani, P.; Melvin, G. D.; Neilson, J. D.; Nøttestad, L.; Óskarsson, G. J.; Payne, M. R.; Richardson, D. E.; Senina, I.; Speirs, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    This paper reviews the current knowledge on the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish stocks in the North Atlantic basin with emphasis on their role in the food web and the factors determining their relationship with the environment. We consider herring (Clupea harengus), mackerel (Scomber scombrus), capelin (Mallotus villosus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), which have distributions extending beyond the continental shelf and predominantly occur on both sides of the North Atlantic. We also include albacore (Thunnus alalunga), bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), which, by contrast, show large-scale migrations at the basin scale. We focus on the links between life history processes and the environment, horizontal and vertical distribution, spatial structure and trophic role. Many of these species carry out extensive migrations from spawning grounds to nursery and feeding areas. Large oceanographic features such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre play an important role in determining spatial distributions and driving variations in stock size. Given the large biomasses of especially the smaller species considered here, these stocks can exert significant top-down pressures on the food web and are important in supporting higher trophic levels. The review reveals commonalities and differences between the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish in the NE and NW Atlantic basins, identifies knowledge gaps and modelling needs that the EURO-BASIN project attempts to address.

  16. Multiple glacial refugia of the low-dispersal ground beetle Carabus irregularis: molecular data support predictions of species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Homburg

    Full Text Available Classical glacial refugia such as the southern European peninsulas were important for species survival during glacial periods and acted as sources of post-glacial colonisation processes. Only recently, some studies have provided evidence for glacial refugia north of the southern European peninsulas. In the present study, we combined species distribution models (SDMs with phylogeographic analyses (using mitochondrial DNA = mtDNA to investigate if the cold-adapted, stenotopic and flightless ground beetle species, Carabus irregularis, survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM in classical and/or other refugia. SDMs (for both a western European and for a Carpathian subgroup were calculated with MAXENT on the basis of 645 species records to predict current and past distribution patterns. Two mtDNA loci (CO1 and ND5, concatenated sequence length: 1785 bp were analyzed from 91 C. irregularis specimens to reconstruct the phylogeography of Central and eastern European populations and to estimate divergence times of the given lineages. Strong intra-specific genetic differentiation (inter-clade ΦST values ranged from 0.92 to 0.99 implied long-term isolation of major clades and subsclades. The high divergence between the nominate subspecies and the Carpathian subspecies C. i. montandoni points to two independent species rather than subspecies (K-2P distance 0.042 ± 0.004; supposed divergence of the maternal lineages dated back 1.6 to 2.5 million years BP differing not only morphologically but also genetically and ecologically from each other. The SDMs also inferred classical as well as other refugia for C. irregularis, especially north of the Alps, in southeastern Europe and in the Carpathians. The coincidences between the results of both methods confirm the assumption of multiple glacial refugia for the studied species and the usefulness of combining methodological approaches for the understanding of the history of low-dispersal insect species.

  17. Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boiffin, Juliette; Badeau, Vincent; Bréda, Nathalie

    2017-03-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. The challenge of modelling and mapping the future distribution and impact of invasive alien species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette

    2015-01-01

    Invasions from alien species can jeopardize the economic, environmental or social benefits derived from biological systems. Biosecurity measures seek to protect those systems from accidental or intentional introductions of species that might become injurious. Pest risk maps convey how the probability of invasion by an alien species or the potential consequences of that...

  19. Examining the patterns and dynamics of species abundance distributions in succession of forest communities by model selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shao-Ming; Chen, Ping; He, Xiao; Guo, Wei; Li, Bailian

    2018-01-01

    There are a few common species and many rare species in a biological community or a multi-species collection in given space and time. This hollow distribution curve is called species abundance distribution (SAD). Few studies have examined the patterns and dynamics of SADs during the succession of forest communities by model selection. This study explored whether the communities in different successional stages followed different SAD models and whether there existed a best SAD model to reveal their intrinsic quantitative features of structure and dynamics in succession. The abundance (the number of individuals) of each vascular plant was surveyed by quadrat sampling method from the tree, shrub and herb layers in two typical communities (i.e., the evergreen needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest and the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest) in southern subtropical Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, South China. The sites of two forest communities in different successional stages are both 1 ha in area. We collected seven widely representative SAD models with obviously different function forms and transformed them into the same octave (log2) scale. These models are simultaneously confronted with eight datasets from four layers of two communities, and their goodness-of-fits to the data were evaluated by the chi-squared test, the adjusted coefficient of determination and the information criteria. The results indicated that: (1) the logCauchy model followed all the datasets and was the best among seven models; (2) the fitness of each model to the data was not directly related to the successional stage of forest community; (3) according to the SAD curves predicted by the best model (i.e., the logCauchy), the proportion of rare species decreased but that of common ones increased in the upper layers with succession, while the reverse was true in the lower layers; and (4) the difference of the SADs increased between the upper and the lower layers with succession. We concluded that

  20. Modeling impacts of human footprint and soil variability on the potential distribution of invasive plant species in different biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Yu, Fei-Hai

    2017-11-01

    Human footprint and soil variability may be important in shaping the spread of invasive plant species (IPS). However, until now, there is little knowledge on how human footprint and soil variability affect the potential distribution of IPS in different biomes. We used Maxent modeling to project the potential distribution of 29 IPS with wide distributions and long introduction histories in China based on various combinations of climatic correlates, soil characteristics and human footprint. Then, we evaluated the relative importance of each type of environmental variables (climate, soil and human footprint) as well as the difference in range and similarity of the potential distribution of IPS between different biomes. Human footprint and soil variables contributed to the prediction of the potential distribution of IPS, and different types of biomes had varying responses and degrees of impacts from the tested variables. Human footprint and soil variability had the highest tendency to increase the potential distribution of IPS in Montane Grasslands and Shrublands. We propose to integrate the assessment in impacts of human footprint and soil variability on the potential distribution of IPS in different biomes into the prevention and control of plant invasion.

  1. Predicting Species Distributions Using Record Centre Data: Multi-Scale Modelling of Habitat Suitability for Bat Roosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John

    2015-01-01

    Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the

  2. Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh G Torres

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation, but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation, particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S. Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation, and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation. Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation

  3. Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

    2017-09-19

    The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

  4. Evaluating effectiveness of down-sampling for stratified designs and unbalanced prevalence in Random Forest models of tree species distributions in Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracy S. Frescino

    2012-01-01

    Random Forests is frequently used to model species distributions over large geographic areas. Complications arise when data used to train the models have been collected in stratified designs that involve different sampling intensity per stratum. The modeling process is further complicated if some of the target species are relatively rare on the landscape leading to an...

  5. [Development and application of a multi-species water quality model for water distribution systems with EPANET-MSX].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fu; Chen, Ji-ning; Zeng, Si-yu

    2008-12-01

    A conceptual multi-species water quality model for water distribution systems was developed on the basis of the toolkit of the EPANET-MSX software. The model divided the pipe segment into four compartments including pipe wall, biofilm, boundary layer and bulk liquid. The involved processes were substrate utilization and microbial growth, decay and inactivation of microorganisms, mass transfer of soluble components through the boundary layer, adsorption and desorption of particular components between bulk liquid and biofilm, oxidation and halogenation of organic matter by residual chlorine, and chlorine consumption by pipe wall. The fifteen simulated variables included the seven common variables both in the biofilm and in the bulk liquid, i.e. soluble organic matter, particular organic matter, ammonia nitrogen, residual chlorine, heterotrophic bacteria, autotrophic bacteria and inert solids, as well as biofilm thickness on the pipe wall. The model was validated against the data from a series of pilot experiments, and the simulation accuracy for residual chlorine and turbidity were 0.1 mg/L and 0.3 NTU respectively. A case study showed that the model could reasonably reflect the dynamic variation of residual chlorine and turbidity in the studied water distribution system, while Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account both the variability of finished water from the waterworks and the uncertainties of model parameters, could be performed to assess the violation risk of water quality in the water distribution system.

  6. Seasonally-Dynamic Presence-Only Species Distribution Models for a Cryptic Migratory Bat Impacted by Wind Energy Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Hayes

    Full Text Available Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus, a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn-the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as 'risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds'. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  7. Seasonally-Dynamic Presence-Only Species Distribution Models for a Cryptic Migratory Bat Impacted by Wind Energy Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A; Cryan, Paul M; Wunder, Michael B

    2015-01-01

    Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs) from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn-the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as 'risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds'. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  8. Seasonally-dynamic presence-only species distribution models for a cryptic migratory bat impacted by wind energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs) from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn—the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as ‘risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds’. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  9. Modelling the species distribution of flat-headed cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an endangered South-East Asian small felid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilting, Andreas; Cord, Anna; Hearn, Andrew J; Hesse, Deike; Mohamed, Azlan; Traeholdt, Carl; Cheyne, Susan M; Sunarto, Sunarto; Jayasilan, Mohd-Azlan; Ross, Joanna; Shapiro, Aurélie C; Sebastian, Anthony; Dech, Stefan; Breitenmoser, Christine; Sanderson, Jim; Duckworth, J W; Hofer, Heribert

    2010-03-17

    The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world's least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat. In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain. Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key

  10. Modelling the species distribution of flat-headed cats (Prionailurus planiceps, an endangered South-East Asian small felid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Wilting

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps is one of the world's least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim, altitude (SRTM and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World. Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation. In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo, information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations, and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation

  11. Coupling Satellite Data with Species Distribution and Connectivity Models as a Tool for Environmental Management and Planning in Matrix-Sensitive Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Nekum, Sven; Cord, Anna F.; Engler, Jan O.

    2016-07-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic habitat fragmentation are considered major threats for global biodiversity. As a direct consequence, connectivity is increasingly disrupted in many species, which might have serious consequences that could ultimately lead to the extinction of populations. Although a large number of reserves and conservation sites are designated and protected by law, potential habitats acting as inter-population connectivity corridors are, however, mostly ignored in the common practice of environmental planning. In most cases, this is mainly caused by a lack of quantitative measures of functional connectivity available for the planning process. In this study, we highlight the use of fine-scale potential connectivity models (PCMs) derived from multispectral satellite data for the quantification of spatially explicit habitat corridors for matrix-sensitive species of conservation concern. This framework couples a species distribution model with a connectivity model in a two-step framework, where suitability maps from step 1 are transformed into maps of landscape resistance in step 2 filtered by fragmentation thresholds. We illustrate the approach using the sand lizard ( Lacerta agilis L.) in the metropolitan area of Cologne, Germany, as a case study. Our model proved to be well suited to identify connected as well as completely isolated populations within the study area. Furthermore, due to its fine resolution, the PCM was also able to detect small linear structures known to be important for sand lizards' inter-population connectivity such as railroad embankments. We discuss the applicability and possible implementation of PCMs to overcome shortcomings in the common practice of environmental impact assessments.

  12. Comparative interpretation of count, presence-absence and point methods for species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aarts, G.M; Fieberg, J.; Matthiopoulos, J.

    2012-01-01

    1.The need to understand the processes shaping population distributions has resulted in a vast increase in the diversity of spatial wildlife data, leading to the development of many novel analytical techniques that are fit-for-purpose. One may aggregate location data into spatial units (e.g. grid

  13. Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fu-Liu; Li, Yi-Long; Wang, Yin

    2015-01-01

    The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models...... and their applications: (1) obtain the toxicity data of the pollutants; (2) fit the SSD curves; (3) calculate the potentially affected fractions (PAFs) of the individual pollutants for the ecological risk assessment of an individual pollutant; and (4) calculate the accumulated multi-substance potentially affected...... collected from the ecotoxicity database, (3) how to transform the acute toxicity data into chronic data, (4) how to best fit the toxicity data, (5) how to calculate the msPAF of multiple pollutants, and (6) how to determine the uncertainty of the SSD model”. In response to these questions, several...

  14. Contribution of climate, soil, and MODIS predictors when modeling forest inventory invasive species distribution using forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitru Salajanu; Dennis Jacobs

    2010-01-01

    Forest inventory and analysis data are used to monitor the presence and extent of certain non-native invasive species. Effective control of its spread requires quality spatial distribution information. There is no clear consensus why some ecosystems are more favorable to non-native species. The objective of this study is to evaluate the reelative contribution of geo-...

  15. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Using species distribution model to estimate the wintering population size of the endangered scaly-sided merganser in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Zeng

    Full Text Available Scaly-sided Merganser is a globally endangered species restricted to eastern Asia. Estimating its population is difficult and considerable gap exists between populations at its breeding grounds and wintering sites. In this study, we built a species distribution model (SDM using Maxent with presence-only data to predict the potential wintering habitat for Scaly-sided Merganser in China. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC method suggests high predictive power of the model (training and testing AUC were 0.97 and 0.96 respectively. The most significant environmental variables included annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of driest quarter. Suitable conditions for Scaly-sided Merganser are predicted in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei Provinces. The predicted suitable habitat embraces 6,984 km of river. Based on survey results from three consecutive winters (2010-2012 and previous studies, we estimated that the entire wintering population of Scaly-sided Merganser in China to be 3,561 ± 478 individuals, which is consistent with estimate in its breeding ground.

  17. Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2010-01-01

    The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

  18. Exploring similarities among many species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmerman, Scott; Wang, Jingyuan; Osborne, James; Shook, Kimberly; Huang, Jian; Godsoe, William; Simons, Theodore R.

    2012-01-01

    Collecting species presence data and then building models to predict species distribution has been long practiced in the field of ecology for the purpose of improving our understanding of species relationships with each other and with the environment. Due to limitations of computing power as well as limited means of using modeling software on HPC facilities, past species distribution studies have been unable to fully explore diverse data sets. We build a system that can, for the first time to our knowledge, leverage HPC to support effective exploration of species similarities in distribution as well as their dependencies on common environmental conditions. Our system can also compute and reveal uncertainties in the modeling results enabling domain experts to make informed judgments about the data. Our work was motivated by and centered around data collection efforts within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park that date back to the 1940s. Our findings present new research opportunities in ecology and produce actionable field-work items for biodiversity management personnel to include in their planning of daily management activities.

  19. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra

    2013-09-19

    Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will

  20. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  1. MODELLING THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TREE SPECIES ON A NATIONAL SCALE IN COLOMBIA: APPLICATION TO PALICOUREA ANGUSTIFOLIA KUNTH AND PALICOUREA GUIANENSIS AUBL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armenteras Dolors

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The results in this study illustrate the methods of using the existing species' presentrecords and environmental data to produce a niche-based model based on Mahalanobis distances, and also to predict the distribution of a number of tree species in order to apply it on a national scale to a tropical country such as Colombia. The technique applied is based on the Mahalanobis distance, a generalised squared distance statistic. We used environmental data integrated into a GIS, and a georeferenced collection of localities of Palicourea angustifolia and Palicourea guianensis to produce and test the predictive models. We used record data for Warszewiczia coccinea to validate the model. The two Palicourea species show largely complementary potential ranges. P. angustifolia shows a clear Andean distribution with a presence in lower and upper mountain areas but not in the highlands or in the inter-Andean valleys. P. guianensis was predicted throughout most of the lowland areas of Colombia including lowland Amazonian forests, and most of the tropical savannas of Orinoquia. The model predicted an overlapping distribution of the two species of 93.9 km2. The Mahalanobian approach contributes to the development of biogeographically oriented modelling that makes the best use of the available data in data-scarce regions (such as most of the tropics. The technique provides key information about the environmental niche of the species being modelled, and allows comparisons between the species. The prediction achieved for the two species was considered satisfactory.

  2. The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on MaxEnt model and geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhongjun; Guo, Ke; Jin, Shulan; Pan, Huahua

    2018-01-01

    The issue that climatic change has great influence on species distribution is currently of great interest in field of biogeography. Six typical Kobresia species are selected from alpine grassland of Tibetan Plateau (TP) as research objects which are the high-quality forage for local husbandry, and their distribution changes are modeled in four periods by using MaxEnt model and GIS technology. The modeling results have shown that the distribution of these six typical Kobresia species in TP was strongly affected by two factors of "the annual precipitation" and "the precipitation in the wettest and driest quarters of the year". The modeling results have also shown that the most suitable habitats of K. pygmeae were located in the area around Qinghai Lake, the Hengduan-Himalayan mountain area, and the hinterland of TP. The most suitable habitats of K. humilis were mainly located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP during the Last Interglacial period, and gradually merged into a bigger area; K. robusta and K. tibetica were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP, but they did not integrate into one area all the time, and K. capillifolia were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and extended to the southwest of the original distributing area, whereas K. macrantha were mainly distributed along the area of the Himalayan mountain chain, which had the smallest distribution area among them, and all these six Kobresia species can be divided into four types of "retreat/expansion" styles according to the changes of suitable habitat areas during the four periods; all these change styles are the result of long-term adaptations of the different species to the local climate changes in regions of TP and show the complexity of relationships between different species and climate. The research results have positive reference value to the protection of species diversity and sustainable development of the local husbandry in TP.

  3. Species distribution models and impact factor growth in environmental journals: methodological fashion or the attraction of global change science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís

    2014-01-01

    In this work, I evaluate the impact of species distribution models (SDMs) on the current status of environmental and ecological journals by asking the question to which degree development of SDMs in the literature is related to recent changes in the impact factors of ecological journals. The hypothesis evaluated states that research fronts are likely to attract research attention and potentially drive citation patterns, with journals concentrating papers related to the research front receiving more attention and benefiting from faster increases in their impact on the ecological literature. My results indicate a positive relationship between the number of SDM related articles published in a journal and its impact factor (IF) growth during the period 2000-09. However, the percentage of SDM related papers in a journal was strongly and positively associated with the percentage of papers on climate change and statistical issues. The results support the hypothesis that global change science has been critical in the development of SDMs and that interest in climate change research in particular, rather than the usage of SDM per se, appears as an important factor behind journal IF increases in ecology and environmental sciences. Finally, our results on SDM application in global change science support the view that scientific interest rather than methodological fashion appears to be the major driver of research attraction in the scientific literature.

  4. Impacts of pesticide mixtures in European rivers as predicted by the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) models and SPEAR bioindication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesenska, Sona; Liess, Mathias; Schäfer, Ralf; Beketov, Mikhail; Blaha, Ludek

    2013-04-01

    Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is statistical method broadly used in the ecotoxicological risk assessment of chemicals. Originally it has been used for prospective risk assessment of single substances but nowadays it is becoming more important also in the retrospective risk assessment of mixtures, including the catchment scale. In the present work, SSD predictions (impacts of mixtures consisting of 25 pesticides; data from several catchments in Germany, France and Finland) were compared with SPEAR-pesticides, which a bioindicator index based on biological traits responsive to the effects of pesticides and post-contamination recovery. The results showed statistically significant correlations (Pearson's R, ppesticides (based on field biomonitoring observations). Comparisons of the thresholds established for the SSD and SPEAR approaches (SPEAR-pesticides=45%, i.e. LOEC level, and msPAF = 0.05 for SSD, i.e. HC5) showed that use of chronic toxicity data significantly improved the agreement between the two methods but the SPEAR-pesticides index was still more sensitive. Taken together, the validation study shows good potential of SSD models in predicting the real impacts of micropollutant mixtures on natural communities of aquatic biota.

  5. A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R.; Swatantran, Anu; Dubayah, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics

  6. Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oke, Tobi A; Hager, Heather A

    2017-01-01

    The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity.

  7. Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    April E Reside

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

  8. Analyzing the hydrological impact of afforestation and tree species in two catchments with contrasting soil properties using the spatially distributed model MIKE SHE SWET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Christiansen, Jesper Riis; Pang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    afforestation or forest conversion impacts the water resource at the catchment scale. We hypothesize that the groundwater formation and streamflow is increased when water consuming conifers are replaced with the less consumptive broadleaf tree species. To test this a distributed hydrological model...

  9. Not to put too fine a point on it - does increasing precision of geographic referencing improve species distribution models for a wide-ranging migratory bat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Ozenberger, Katharine; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Bat specimens held in natural history museum collections can provide insights into the distribution of species. However, there are several important sources of spatial error associated with natural history specimens that may influence the analysis and mapping of bat species distributions. We analyzed the importance of geographic referencing and error correction in species distribution modeling (SDM) using occurrence records of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus). This species is known to migrate long distances and is a species of increasing concern due to fatalities documented at wind energy facilities in North America. We used 3,215 museum occurrence records collected from 1950–2000 for hoary bats in North America. We compared SDM performance using five approaches: generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy models. We evaluated results using three SDM performance metrics (AUC, sensitivity, and specificity) and two data sets: one comprised of the original occurrence data, and a second data set consisting of these same records after the locations were adjusted to correct for identifiable spatial errors. The increase in precision improved the mean estimated spatial error associated with hoary bat records from 5.11 km to 1.58 km, and this reduction in error resulted in a slight increase in all three SDM performance metrics. These results provide insights into the importance of geographic referencing and the value of correcting spatial errors in modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging bat species. We conclude that the considerable time and effort invested in carefully increasing the precision of the occurrence locations in this data set was not worth the marginal gains in improved SDM performance, and it seems likely that gains would be similar for other bat species that range across large areas of the continent, migrate, and are habitat generalists.

  10. Combined Use of Systematic Conservation Planning, Species Distribution Modelling, and Connectivity Analysis Reveals Severe Conservation Gaps in a Megadiverse Country (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajardo, Javier; Lessmann, Janeth; Bonaccorso, Elisa; Devenish, Christian; Muñoz, Jesús

    2014-01-01

    Conservation planning is crucial for megadiverse countries where biodiversity is coupled with incomplete reserve systems and limited resources to invest in conservation. Using Peru as an example of a megadiverse country, we asked whether the national system of protected areas satisfies biodiversity conservation needs. Further, to complement the existing reserve system, we identified and prioritized potential conservation areas using a combination of species distribution modeling, conservation planning and connectivity analysis. Based on a set of 2,869 species, including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, butterflies, and plants, we used species distribution models to represent species' geographic ranges to reduce the effect of biased sampling and partial knowledge about species' distributions. A site-selection algorithm then searched for efficient and complementary proposals, based on the above distributions, for a more representative system of protection. Finally, we incorporated connectivity among areas in an innovative post-hoc analysis to prioritize those areas maximizing connectivity within the system. Our results highlight severe conservation gaps in the Coastal and Andean regions, and we propose several areas, which are not currently covered by the existing network of protected areas. Our approach helps to find areas that contribute to creating a more representative, connected and efficient network. PMID:25479411

  11. Evaluation of Scat Deposition Transects versus Radio Telemetry for Developing a Species Distribution Model for a Rare Desert Carnivore, the Kit Fox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M; Lonsinger, Robert C; Waits, Lisette P

    2015-01-01

    Development and evaluation of noninvasive methods for monitoring species distribution and abundance is a growing area of ecological research. While noninvasive methods have the advantage of reduced risk of negative factors associated with capture, comparisons to methods using more traditional invasive sampling is lacking. Historically kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) occupied the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America. Once the most abundant carnivore in the Great Basin Desert of Utah, the species is now considered rare. In recent decades, attempts have been made to model the environmental variables influencing kit fox distribution. Using noninvasive scat deposition surveys for determination of kit fox presence, we modeled resource selection functions to predict kit fox distribution using three popular techniques (Maxent, fixed-effects, and mixed-effects generalized linear models) and compared these with similar models developed from invasive sampling (telemetry locations from radio-collared foxes). Resource selection functions were developed using a combination of landscape variables including elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation height, and soil type. All models were tested against subsequent scat collections as a method of model validation. We demonstrate the importance of comparing multiple model types for development of resource selection functions used to predict a species distribution, and evaluating the importance of environmental variables on species distribution. All models we examined showed a large effect of elevation on kit fox presence, followed by slope and vegetation height. However, the invasive sampling method (i.e., radio-telemetry) appeared to be better at determining resource selection, and therefore may be more robust in predicting kit fox distribution. In contrast, the distribution maps created from the noninvasive sampling (i.e., scat transects) were significantly different than the invasive method, thus scat transects may be

  12. Relating species abundance distributions to species-area curves in two Mediterranean-type shrublands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Jon E.

    2003-01-01

    Based on both theoretical and empirical studies there is evidence that different species abundance distributions underlie different species-area relationships. Here I show that Australian and Californian shrubland communities (at the scale from 1 to 1000 m2) exhibit different species-area relationships and different species abundance patterns. The species-area relationship in Australian heathlands best fits an exponential model and species abundance (based on both density and cover) follows a narrow log normal distribution. In contrast, the species-area relationship in Californian shrublands is best fit with the power model and, although species abundance appears to fit a log normal distribution, the distribution is much broader than in Australian heathlands. I hypothesize that the primary driver of these differences is the abundance of small-stature annual species in California and the lack of annuals in Australian heathlands. Species-area is best fit by an exponential model in Australian heathlands because the bulk of the species are common and thus the species-area curves initially rise rapidly between 1 and 100 m2. Annuals in Californian shrublands generate very broad species abundance distributions with many uncommon or rare species. The power function is a better model in these communities because richness increases slowly from 1 to 100 m2 but more rapidly between 100 and 1000 m2due to the abundance of rare or uncommon species that are more likely to be encountered at coarser spatial scales. The implications of this study are that both the exponential and power function models are legitimate representations of species-area relationships in different plant communities. Also, structural differences in community organization, arising from different species abundance distributions, may lead to different species-area curves, and this may be tied to patterns of life form distribution.

  13. A biogeographical perspective on species abundance distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthews, Thomas J.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; de Azevedo, Eduardo Brito

    2017-01-01

    It has become increasingly recognized that multiple processes can generate similar shapes of species abundance distributions (SADs), with the result that the fit of a given SAD model cannot unambiguously provide evidence in support of a given theory or model. An alternative approach to comparing...... the fit of different SAD models to data from a single site is to collect abundance data from a variety of sites, and then build models to analyse how different SAD properties (e.g. form, skewness) vary with different predictor variables. Such a biogeographical approach to SAD research is potentially very...... revealing, yet there has been a general lack of interest in SADs in the biogeographical literature. In this Perspective, we address this issue by highlighting findings of recent analyses of SADs that we consider to be of intrinsic biogeographical interest. We use arthropod data drawn from the Azorean...

  14. Vaginal drug distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, David F; Yuan, Andrew; Gao, Yajing

    2015-09-15

    This review presents and applies fundamental mass transport theory describing the diffusion and convection driven mass transport of drugs to the vaginal environment. It considers sources of variability in the predictions of the models. It illustrates use of model predictions of microbicide drug concentration distribution (pharmacokinetics) to gain insights about drug effectiveness in preventing HIV infection (pharmacodynamics). The modeling compares vaginal drug distributions after different gel dosage regimens, and it evaluates consequences of changes in gel viscosity due to aging. It compares vaginal mucosal concentration distributions of drugs delivered by gels vs. intravaginal rings. Finally, the modeling approach is used to compare vaginal drug distributions across species with differing vaginal dimensions. Deterministic models of drug mass transport into and throughout the vaginal environment can provide critical insights about the mechanisms and determinants of such transport. This knowledge, and the methodology that obtains it, can be applied and translated to multiple applications, involving the scientific underpinnings of vaginal drug distribution and the performance evaluation and design of products, and their dosage regimens, that achieve it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest: Methodology and Potential Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caillaud, D.; Crofoot, M.C.; Scarpino, S.V.; Jansen, P.A.; Garzon-Lopez, C.X.; Winkelhagen, A.J.S.; Bohlman, S.A.; Walsh, P.D.

    2010-01-01

    Background - The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we

  16. Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest : Methodology and Potential Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caillaud, Damien; Crofoot, Margaret C.; Scarpino, Samuel V.; Jansen, Patrick A.; Garzon-Lopez, Carol X.; Winkelhagen, Annemarie J. S.; Bohlman, Stephanie A.; Walsh, Peter D.

    2010-01-01

    Background: The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we

  17. Spatial statistics for modeling of abundance and distribution of wildlife species in the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.

    2001-01-01

    This study illustrates the use of modern statistical procedures for better wildlife management by addressing three key issues: determination of abundance, modeling of animal distributions and variability of diversity in space and time. Prior information in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is

  18. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

    2012-01-01

    A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

  19. Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

    2013-06-01

    · The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. Multi-model study of mercury dispersion in the atmosphere: vertical and interhemispheric distribution of mercury species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bieser

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric chemistry and transport of mercury play a key role in the global mercury cycle. However, there are still considerable knowledge gaps concerning the fate of mercury in the atmosphere. This is the second part of a model intercomparison study investigating the impact of atmospheric chemistry and emissions on mercury in the atmosphere. While the first study focused on ground-based observations of mercury concentration and deposition, here we investigate the vertical and interhemispheric distribution and speciation of mercury from the planetary boundary layer to the lower stratosphere. So far, there have been few model studies investigating the vertical distribution of mercury, mostly focusing on single aircraft campaigns. Here, we present a first comprehensive analysis based on various aircraft observations in Europe, North America, and on intercontinental flights. The investigated models proved to be able to reproduce the distribution of total and elemental mercury concentrations in the troposphere including interhemispheric trends. One key aspect of the study is the investigation of mercury oxidation in the troposphere. We found that different chemistry schemes were better at reproducing observed oxidized mercury patterns depending on altitude. High concentrations of oxidized mercury in the upper troposphere could be reproduced with oxidation by bromine while elevated concentrations in the lower troposphere were better reproduced by OH and ozone chemistry. However, the results were not always conclusive as the physical and chemical parameterizations in the chemistry transport models also proved to have a substantial impact on model results.

  1. Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guisan Antoine

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a real absences b pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97, and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have

  2. Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora in Ethiopia's Afar region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W. Luizza

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine in Ethiopia's Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80 and the final model (test AUC = 0.96. Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local

  3. The roots of diversity: below ground species richness and rooting distributions in a tropical forest revealed by DNA barcodes and inverse modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Andrew Jones

    Full Text Available Plants interact with each other, nutrients, and microbial communities in soils through extensive root networks. Understanding these below ground interactions has been difficult in natural systems, particularly those with high plant species diversity where morphological identification of fine roots is difficult. We combine DNA-based root identification with a DNA barcode database and above ground stem locations in a floristically diverse lowland tropical wet forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, where all trees and lianas >1 cm diameter have been mapped to investigate richness patterns below ground and model rooting distributions.DNA barcode loci, particularly the cpDNA locus trnH-psba, can be used to identify fine and small coarse roots to species. We recovered 33 species of roots from 117 fragments sequenced from 12 soil cores. Despite limited sampling, we recovered a high proportion of the known species in the focal hectare, representing approximately 14% of the measured woody plant richness. This high value is emphasized by the fact that we would need to sample on average 13 m(2 at the seedling layer and 45 m(2 for woody plants >1 cm diameter to obtain the same number of species above ground. Results from inverse models parameterized with the locations and sizes of adults and the species identifications of roots and sampling locations indicates a high potential for distal underground interactions among plants.DNA barcoding techniques coupled with modeling approaches should be broadly applicable to studying root distributions in any mapped vegetation plot. We discuss the implications of our results and outline how second-generation sequencing technology and environmental sampling can be combined to increase our understanding of how root distributions influence the potential for plant interactions in natural ecosystems.

  4. SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Bennett, Joseph R; French, Connor M

    2017-01-01

    SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model's discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have 'universal' analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates-to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

  5. SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason L. Brown

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs to maximize each model’s discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have ‘universal’ analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism, generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates—to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

  6. ESUSA: US endangered species distribution file

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagy, J.; Calef, C.E.

    1979-10-01

    This report describes a file containing distribution data on endangered species of the United States of Federal concern pursuant to the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Included for each species are (a) the common name, (b) the scientific name, (c) the family, (d) the group (mammal, bird, etc.), (e) Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) listing and recovery priorities, (f) the Federal legal status, (g) the geographic distribution by counties or islands, (h) Federal Register citations and (i) the sources of the information on distribution of the species. Status types are endangered, threatened, proposed, formally under review, candidate, deleted, and rejected. Distribution is by Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) county code and is of four types: designated critical habitat, present range, potential range, and historic range.

  7. Distribution of crayfish species in Hungarian waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mercédesz, Ludányi; Peeters, E.T.H.M.; Kiss, B.; Roessink, I.

    2016-01-01

    Three native crayfish species, i.e.~Astacus astacus, Astacus leptodactylus and Austropotamobius torrentium, occur in Hungary. Lately, however, non-indigenous crustaceans have also invaded the country Their most recent distribution and impact on the occurrences of the native species is not clear.

  8. Using occupancy modeling and logistic regression to assess the distribution of shrimp species in lowland streams, Costa Rica: Does regional groundwater create favorable habitat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Marcia; Freeman, Mary C.; Purucker, S. Thomas; Pringle, Catherine M.

    2016-01-01

    Freshwater shrimps are an important biotic component of tropical ecosystems. However, they can have a low probability of detection when abundances are low. We sampled 3 of the most common freshwater shrimp species, Macrobrachium olfersii, Macrobrachium carcinus, and Macrobrachium heterochirus, and used occupancy modeling and logistic regression models to improve our limited knowledge of distribution of these cryptic species by investigating both local- and landscape-scale effects at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. Local-scale factors included substrate type and stream size, and landscape-scale factors included presence or absence of regional groundwater inputs. Capture rates for 2 of the sampled species (M. olfersii and M. carcinus) were sufficient to compare the fit of occupancy models. Occupancy models did not converge for M. heterochirus, but M. heterochirus had high enough occupancy rates that logistic regression could be used to model the relationship between occupancy rates and predictors. The best-supported models for M. olfersii and M. carcinus included conductivity, discharge, and substrate parameters. Stream size was positively correlated with occupancy rates of all 3 species. High stream conductivity, which reflects the quantity of regional groundwater input into the stream, was positively correlated with M. olfersii occupancy rates. Boulder substrates increased occupancy rate of M. carcinus and decreased the detection probability of M. olfersii. Our models suggest that shrimp distribution is driven by factors that function at local (substrate and discharge) and landscape (conductivity) scales.

  9. Species distribution models of two critically endangered deep-sea octocorals reveal fishing impacts on vulnerable marine ecosystems in central Mediterranean Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, V; Garofalo, G; Fiorentino, F; Massi, D; Milisenda, G; Piraino, S; Russo, T; Gristina, M

    2017-08-14

    Deep-sea coral assemblages are key components of marine ecosystems that generate habitats for fish and invertebrate communities and act as marine biodiversity hot spots. Because of their life history traits, deep-sea corals are highly vulnerable to human impacts such as fishing. They are an indicator of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs), therefore their conservation is essential to preserve marine biodiversity. In the Mediterranean Sea deep-sea coral habitats are associated with commercially important crustaceans, consequently their abundance has dramatically declined due to the effects of trawling. Marine spatial planning is required to ensure that the conservation of these habitats is achieved. Species distribution models were used to investigate the distribution of two critically endangered octocorals (Funiculina quadrangularis and Isidella elongata) in the central Mediterranean as a function of environmental and fisheries variables. Results show that both species exhibit species-specific habitat preferences and spatial patterns in response to environmental variables, but the impact of trawling on their distribution differed. In particular F. quadrangularis can overlap with fishing activities, whereas I. elongata occurs exclusively where fishing is low or absent. This study represents the first attempt to identify key areas for the protection of soft and compact mud VMEs in the central Mediterranean Sea.

  10. Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  11. Combined field/modelling approaches to represent the air-vegetation distribution of benzo[a]pyrene using different vegetation species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratola, Nuno; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    A strategy designed to combine the features of field-based experiments and modelling approaches is presented in this work to assess air-vegetation distribution of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Given the lack of simultaneous data in both environmental matrices, a methodology with two main steps was employed. First, evaluating the simulations with the chemistry transport model (CTM) WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) + CHIMERE data against the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network, to test the aptitude of the CTM to replicate the respective atmospheric levels. Then, using modelled concentrations and a method to estimate air levels of BaP from biomonitoring data to compare the performance of different pine species (Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster, Pinus nigra and Pinus halepensis) to describe the atmospheric evidences. The comparison of modelling vs. biomonitoring has a higher dependence on the location of the sampling points, rather than on the pine species, as some tend to overestimate and others to underestimate BaP concentrations, in most cases regardless of the season. The climatology of the canopy levels of BaP was successfully validated with the concentrations in pine needles (most biases below 26%), however, the model was unable to distinguish between species. This should be taken into consideration in future studies, as biases can rise up to 48%, especially in summer and autumn, the. The comparison with biomonitoring data showed a similar pattern, but with the best results in the warmer months.

  12. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckland, Steeves; Cole, Nik C; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Gallagher, Laura E; Henshaw, Sion M; Besnard, Aurélien; Tucker, Rachel M; Bachraz, Vishnu; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Harris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  13. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steeves Buckland

    Full Text Available The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp. that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  14. Forms and genesis of species abundance distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans O. Ochiaga

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Species abundance distribution (SAD is one of the most important metrics in community ecology. SAD curves take a hollow or hyperbolic shape in a histogram plot with many rare species and only a few common species. In general, the shape of SAD is largely log-normally distributed, although the mechanism behind this particular SAD shape still remains elusive. Here, we aim to review four major parametric forms of SAD and three contending mechanisms that could potentially explain this highly skewed form of SAD. The parametric forms reviewed here include log series, negative binomial, lognormal and geometric distributions. The mechanisms reviewed here include the maximum entropy theory of ecology, neutral theory and the theory of proportionate effect.

  15. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  16. Geographic distribution of wild potato species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hijmans, R.J.; Spooner, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The geographic distribution of wild potatoes (Solanaceae sect. Petota) was analyzed using a database of 6073 georeferenced observations. Wild potatoes occur in 16 countries, but 88% of the observations are from Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru. Most species are rare and narrowly endemic: for 77

  17. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P.

    2014-01-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR–SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. - Highlights: • We investigate relationships between σp and log-NOEC in eight species. • The QICAR–SSD model, FACR, and CMC/CCC were used to predict CCCs. • They are as a supplement to screening for toxicities, criteria and standards. - CCCs for 34 metals/metalloids were predicted by use of QICAR–SSD model and FACR method

  18. Mistaking geography for biology: inferring processes from species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Dan L; Cardillo, Marcel; Rosauer, Dan F; Bolnick, Daniel I

    2014-10-01

    Over the past few decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of statistical methods that infer evolutionary and ecological processes from data on species distributions. These methods have led to considerable new insights, but they often fail to account for the effects of historical biogeography on present-day species distributions. Because the geography of speciation can lead to patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the distributions of species within a clade, this can result in misleading inferences about the importance of deterministic processes in generating spatial patterns of biodiversity. In this opinion article, we discuss ways in which patterns of species distributions driven by historical biogeography are often interpreted as evidence of particular evolutionary or ecological processes. We focus on three areas that are especially prone to such misinterpretations: community phylogenetics, environmental niche modelling, and analyses of beta diversity (compositional turnover of biodiversity). Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Measuring the Insecurity Index of species in networks of protected areas using species distribution modeling and fuzzy logic: The case of raptors in Andalusia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diaz-Gomez, D.L.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Groen, T.A.; Munoz, A.R.; Skidmore, A.K.; Real, R.

    2013-01-01

    Networks of protected areas often fail to include favorable areas for all species, even when they cover a considerable percentage of a territory. To assess the effectiveness of protected areas, harsh thresholds are commonly used (e.g. minimum 20% of the cell must be covered by a protected area to

  20. A mistletoe tale: postglacial invasion of Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Loranthaceae) to Mesoamerican cloud forests revealed by molecular data and species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Gándara, Etelvina; Vásquez-Aguilar, Antonio Acini; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Ortiz-Rodriguez, Andrés Ernesto; González, Clementina; Mejía Saules, María Teresa; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

    2016-04-12

    Ecological adaptation to host taxa is thought to result in mistletoe speciation via race formation. However, historical and ecological factors could also contribute to explain genetic structuring particularly when mistletoe host races are distributed allopatrically. Using sequence data from nuclear (ITS) and chloroplast (trnL-F) DNA, we investigate the genetic differentiation of 31 Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Loranthaceae) populations across the Mesoamerican species range. We conducted phylogenetic, population and spatial genetic analyses on 274 individuals of P. schiedeanus to gain insight of the evolutionary history of these populations. Species distribution modeling, isolation with migration and Bayesian inference methods were used to infer the evolutionary transition of mistletoe invasion, in which evolutionary scenarios were compared through posterior probabilities. Our analyses revealed shallow levels of population structure with three genetic groups present across the sample area. Nine haplotypes were identified after sequencing the trnL-F intergenic spacer. These haplotypes showed phylogeographic structure, with three groups with restricted gene flow corresponding to the distribution of individuals/populations separated by habitat (cloud forest localities from San Luis Potosí to northwestern Oaxaca and Chiapas, localities with xeric vegetation in central Oaxaca, and localities with tropical deciduous forests in Chiapas), with post-glacial population expansions and potentially corresponding to post-glacial invasion types. Similarly, 44 ITS ribotypes suggest phylogeographic structure, despite the fact that most frequent ribotypes are widespread indicating effective nuclear gene flow via pollen. Gene flow estimates, a significant genetic signal of demographic expansion, and range shifts under past climatic conditions predicted by species distribution modeling suggest post-glacial invasion of P. schiedeanus mistletoes to cloud forests. However, Approximate

  1. Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

    OpenAIRE

    R?dder, Dennis; Lawing, A. Michelle; Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; H?rnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

    2013-01-01

    The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine ...

  2. Comparative ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish species in the North Atlantic: Implications for modelling climate and fisheries impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trenkel, V.M.; Huse, G.; MacKenzie, Brian

    2014-01-01

    (Thunnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), which, by contrast, show large-scale migrations at the basin scale. We focus on the links between life history processes and the environment, horizontal and vertical distribution, spatial structure and trophic role. Many...

  3. Prioritizing West African medicinal plants for conservation and sustainable extraction studies based on market surveys and species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Andel, T.R.; Croft, S.; van Loon, E.E.; Quiroz, D.; Towns, A.M.; Raes, N.

    2015-01-01

    Sub-Saharan African human populations rely heavily on wild-harvested medicinal plants for their health. The trade in herbal medicine provides an income for many West African people, but little is known about the effects of commercial extraction on wild plant populations. Detailed distribution maps

  4. Prioritizing West African medicinal plants for conservation and sustainable extraction studies based on market surveys and species distribution models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andel, van T.R.; Croft, S.; Loon, van E.E.; Quiroz Villarreal, D.K.; Towns, A.M.; Raes, N.

    2015-01-01

    Sub-Saharan African human populations rely heavily on wild-harvested medicinal plants for their health. The trade in herbal medicine provides an income for many West African people, but little is known about the effects of commercial extraction on wild plant populations. Detailed distribution maps

  5. Distribution of Vulpia species (Poaceae in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludwik Frey

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of four species of the genus Vulpia [V. myuros (L. C.C. Gmel., V. bromoides (L. S.F. Gray, V. ciliata Dumort. and V. geniculata (L. Link] reported in Poland has been studied. Currently, V. myuros and especially V. bromoides are very rare species, and their greatest concentration can be found only in the Lower Silesia region. The number of their localities decreased after 1950 and it seems resonable to include both species in the "red list" of threatened plants in Poland: V. myuros in the EN category, V. bromoides in the CR category. V. ciliata and V. geniculata are very rare ephemerophytes and their localities not confirmed during ca 60 years are of historical interest only.

  6. Using Global and Regional Species Distribution Models (SDM) to Infer the Invasive Stage of Latrodectus geometricus (Araneae: Theridiidae) in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucare-Ríos, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Bustamante, Ramiro O

    2016-12-01

    The brown widow spider, Latrodectus geometricus C. L. Koch, 1841, is a large spider of the family Theridiidae that belongs to a genus of medical interest owing to its potent neurotoxic venom, which causes severe pain in humans. In America, this alien spider has been found in virtually all countries in the region, mainly associated with human dwellings, but also in agricultural sectors. However, the invasive process and potential distribution of this invasive species across the American continent are completely unknown. In this context, using a combination of both global and regional niche models, it is possible to hypothesize the invasive phase of the species as well as the geographic space where these different phases occur. By comparing the global and regional niches of L. geometricus, we examined its invasive process and potential distribution across the American continent. This work is an innovative approach to understanding the invasion of the brown widow spider in this area and the ecological processes that underlie this invasion. In this context, the global and regional niche comparison constitutes an appropriate tool to account for the complexities of the invasive process, generating different hypotheses amenable to being tested in future studies. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Semi-mechanistic partial buffer approach to modeling pH, the buffer properties, and the distribution of ionic species in complex solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Daniel P; Da Conceicao Neta, Edith Ramos; McFeeters, Roger F; Lubkin, Sharon R; Breidt, Frederick

    2006-08-09

    In many biological science and food processing applications, it is very important to control or modify pH. However, the complex, unknown composition of biological media and foods often limits the utility of purely theoretical approaches to modeling pH and calculating the distributions of ionizable species. This paper provides general formulas and efficient algorithms for predicting the pH, titration, ionic species concentrations, buffer capacity, and ionic strength of buffer solutions containing both defined and undefined components. A flexible, semi-mechanistic, partial buffering (SMPB) approach is presented that uses local polynomial regression to model the buffering influence of complex or undefined components in a solution, while identified components of known concentration are modeled using expressions based on extensions of the standard acid-base theory. The SMPB method is implemented in a freeware package, (pH)Tools, for use with Matlab. We validated the predictive accuracy of these methods by using strong acid titrations of cucumber slurries to predict the amount of a weak acid required to adjust pH to selected target values.

  8. Node-based analysis of species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Rahbek, Carsten; Fjeldså, Jon

    2014-01-01

    overrepresentation score (SOS) and the geographic node divergence (GND) score, which together combine ecological and evolutionary patterns into a single framework and avoids many of the problems that characterize community phylogenetic methods in current use.This approach goes through each node in the phylogeny...... with case studies on two groups with well-described biogeographical histories: a local-scale community data set of hummingbirds in the North Andes, and a large-scale data set of the distribution of all species of New World flycatchers. The node-based analysis of these two groups generates a set...... of intuitively interpretable patterns that are consistent with current biogeographical knowledge.Importantly, the results are statistically tractable, opening many possibilities for their use in analyses of evolutionary, historical and spatial patterns of species diversity. The method is implemented...

  9. Attenuation of species abundance distributions by sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimadzu, Hideyasu; Darnell, Ross

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying biodiversity aspects such as species presence/ absence, richness and abundance is an important challenge to answer scientific and resource management questions. In practice, biodiversity can only be assessed from biological material taken by surveys, a difficult task given limited time and resources. A type of random sampling, or often called sub-sampling, is a commonly used technique to reduce the amount of time and effort for investigating large quantities of biological samples. However, it is not immediately clear how (sub-)sampling affects the estimate of biodiversity aspects from a quantitative perspective. This paper specifies the effect of (sub-)sampling as attenuation of the species abundance distribution (SAD), and articulates how the sampling bias is induced to the SAD by random sampling. The framework presented also reveals some confusion in previous theoretical studies. PMID:26064626

  10. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P

    2014-05-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR-SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser

    2018-01-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological...

  12. Species Composition of Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) and Modeling the Spatial Distribution of Main Vectors of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Hormozgan Province, Southern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Khoobdel, Mehdi; Soleimani-Ahmadi, Moussa; Azizi, Kourosh; Aghaei Afshar, Abbas; Jaberhashemi, Seyed Aghil; Fekri, Sajjad; Safari, Reza

    2018-02-28

    Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the main neglected vector-borne diseases in the Middle East, including Iran. This study aimed to map the spatial distribution and species composition of sand flies in Hormozgan Province and to predict the best ecological niches for main CL vectors in this area. A database that included all earlier studies on sand flies in Hormozgan Province was established. Sand flies were also collected from some localities across the province. Prediction maps for main vectors were developed using MaxEnt model. A total of 27 sand fly species were reported from the study area. Phlebotomus papatasi Scopoli, Phlebotomus sergenti s.l. Parrot, Phlebotomus alexandri Sinton, Sergentomyia sintoni Pringle, Sergentomyia clydei Sinton, Sergentomyia tiberiadis Adler, and Sergentomyia baghdadis Adler (Diptera: Psychodidae) had the widest distribution range. The probability of their presence as the main vectors of CL was calculated to be 0.0003-0.9410 and 0.0031-0.8880 for P. papatasi and P. sergenti s.l., respectively. The best ecological niches for P. papatasi were found in the central south, southeast, and a narrow area in southwest, whereas central south to northern area had better niches for P. sergenti s.l. The endemic areas are in Bandar-e Jask, where transmission occurs, whereas in Bastak, the cases were imported from endemic foci of Fars province. In conclusion, proven and suspected vectors of CL and VL were recorded in this study. Due to the existence of endemic foci of CL, and favorite ecological niches for its vectors, there is potential risk of emerging CL in new areas.

  13. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

    2018-09-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Ecological risk assessment of microcystin-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River based on a species sensitivity distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Zhiguang; Du, Lei; Li, Jiafu; Zhang, Ying; Lv, Zhiwei

    2018-02-01

    The eutrophication of surface water has been the main problem of water quality management in recent decades, and the ecological risk of microcystin-LR (MC-LR), which is the by-product of eutrophication, has drawn more attention worldwide. The aims of our study were to determine the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) of MC-LR and to assess the ecological risk of MC-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River. HC 5 (hazardous concentration for 5% of biological species) and PNEC were obtained from a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model, which was constructed with the acute toxicity data of MC-LR on aquatic organisms. The concentrations of MC-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River from April to August of 2015 were analysed, and the ecological risk characteristics of MC-LR were evaluated based on the SSD model. The results showed that the HC 5 of MC-LR in freshwater was 17.18 μg/L and PNEC was 5.73 μg/L. The concentrations of MC-LR ranged from 0.68 μg/L to 32.21 μg/L and were obviously higher in summer than in spring. The values of the risk quotient (RQ) ranged from 0.12 to 5.62, suggesting that the risk of MC-LR for aquatic organisms in the river was at a medium or high level during the study period. Compared with other waterbodies in the world, the pollution level of MC-LR in the Haihe River was at a moderate level. This research could promote the study of the ecological risk of MC-LR at the ecosystem level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1: Global Amphibians Presence Grids

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Amphibians Presence Grids of the Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1 is a reclassified version of the original grids of amphibian species distribution...

  16. Modelling the Distribution of Forest-Dependent Species in Human-Dominated Landscapes: Patterns for the Pine Marten in Intensively Cultivated Lowlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Balestrieri

    Full Text Available In recent years, the "forest-specialist" pine marten Martes martes has been reported to also occur also in largely fragmented, lowland landscapes of north-western Italy. The colonization of such an apparently unsuitable area provided the opportunity for investigating pine marten ecological requirements and predicting its potential south- and eastwards expansion. We collected available pine marten occurrence data in the flood plain of the River Po (N Italy and relate them to 11 environmental variables by developing nine Species Distribution Models. To account for inter-model variability we used average ensemble predictions (EP. EP predicted a total of 482 suitable patches (8.31% of the total study area for the pine marten. The main factors driving pine marten occurrence in the western River Po plain were the distance from watercourses and the distance from woods. EP suggested that the pine marten may further expand in the western lowland, whilst the negligible residual wood cover of large areas in the central and eastern plain makes the habitat unsuitable for the pine marten, except for some riparian corridors and the pine wood patches bordering the Adriatic coast. Based on our results, conservation strategies should seek to preserve remnant forest patches and enhance the functional connectivity provided by riparian corridors.

  17. Modeled ground water age distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  18. Estimating Invasion Success by Non-Native Trees in a National Park Combining WorldView-2 Very High Resolution Satellite Data and Species Distribution Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio T. Monteiro

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Invasion by non-native tree species is an environmental and societal challenge requiring predictive tools to assess invasion dynamics. The frequent scale mismatch between such tools and on-ground conservation is currently limiting invasion management. This study aimed to reduce these scale mismatches, assess the success of non-native tree invasion and determine the environmental factors associated to it. A hierarchical scaling approach combining species distribution models (SDMs and satellite mapping at very high resolution (VHR was developed to assess invasion by Acacia dealbata in Peneda-Gerês National Park, the only national park in Portugal. SDMs were first used to predict the climatically suitable areas for A. dealdata and satellite mapping with the random-forests classifier was then applied to WorldView-2 very-high resolution imagery to determine whether A. dealdata had actually colonized the predicted areas (invasion success. Environmental attributes (topographic, disturbance and canopy-related differing between invaded and non-invaded vegetated areas were then analyzed. The SDM results indicated that most (67% of the study area was climatically suitable for A. dealbata invasion. The onset of invasion was documented to 1905 and satellite mapping highlighted that 12.6% of study area was colonized. However, this species had only colonized 62.5% of the maximum potential range, although was registered within 55.6% of grid cells that were considerable unsuitable. Across these areas, the specific success rate of invasion was mostly below 40%, indicating that A. dealbata invasion was not dominant and effective management may still be possible. Environmental attributes related to topography (slope, canopy (normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi, land surface albedo and disturbance (historical burnt area differed between invaded and non-invaded vegetated area, suggesting that landscape attributes may alter at specific locations with Acacia

  19. SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS, SURROGACY, AND IMPORTANT CONSERVATION REGIONS IN CANADA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conservation actions could be more efficient if there is congruence among taxa in the distribution of species. Patterns in the geographic distribution of species of six taxa were used to identify nationally important sites for conservation in Canada. Species richness and a meas...

  20. Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field

  1. Species delimitation of the Hyphydrus ovatus complex in western Palaearctic with an update of species distributions (Coleoptera, Dytiscidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Bergsten

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The species status of Hyphydrus anatolicus Guignot, 1957 and H. sanctus Sharp, 1882, previously often confused with the widespread H. ovatus (Linnaeus, 1760, are tested with molecular and morphological characters. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1 was sequenced for 32 specimens of all three species. Gene-trees were inferred with parsimony, time-free bayesian and strict clock bayesian analyses. The GMYC model was used to estimate species limits. All three species were reciprocally monophyletic with CO1 and highly supported. The GMYC species delimitation analysis unequivocally delimited the three species with no other than the three species solution included in the confidence interval. A likelihood ratio test rejected the one-species null model. Important morphological characters distinguishing the species are provided and illustrated. New distributional data are given for the following species: Hyphydrus anatolicus from Slovakia and Ukraine, and H. aubei Ganglbauer, 1891, and H. sanctus from Turkey.

  2. Response of chironomid species (Diptera, Chironomidae to water temperature: effects on species distribution in specific habitats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Marziali

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The response of 443 chironomid species to water temperature was analyzed, with the aim of defining their thermal optimum, tolerance limits and thermal habitat. The database included 4442 samples mainly from Italian river catchments collected from the 1950s up to date. Thermal preferences were calculated separately for larval and pupal specimens and for different habitats: high altitude and lowland lakes in the Alpine ecoregion; lowland lakes in the Mediterranean ecoregion; heavily modified water bodies; kryal, krenal, rhithral and potamal in running waters. Optimum response was calculated as mean water temperature, weighted by species abundances; tolerance as weighted standard deviation; skewness and kurtosis as 3rd and 4th moment statistics. The responses were fitted to normal uni- or plurimodal Gaussian models. Cold stenothermal species showed: i unimodal response, ii tolerance for a narrow temperature range, iii optima closed to their minimum temperature values, iv leptokurtic response. Thermophilous species showed: i optima at different temperature values, ii wider tolerance, iii optima near their maximum temperature values, iv platikurtic response, often fitting a plurimodal model. As expected, lower optima values and narrower tolerance were obtained for kryal and krenal, than for rhithral, potamal and lakes. Thermal response curves were produced for each species and were discussed according to species distribution (i.e. altitudinal range in running water and water depth in lakes, voltinism and phylogeny. Thermal optimum and tolerance limits and the definition of the thermal habitat of species can help predicting the impact of global warming on freshwater ecosystems.

  3. Mechanisms controlling the distribution of two invasive Bromus species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Bykova

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict future range shifts for invasive species it is important to explore their ability to acclimate to the new environment and understand physiological and reproductive constraints controlling their distribution. My dissertation studied mechanisms by which temperature may affect the distribution of two aggressive plant invaders in North America, Bromus tectorum and Bromus rubens. I first evaluated winter freezing tolerance of Bromus species and demonstrated that the mechanism explaining their distinct northern range limits is different acquisition time of freezing tolerance. While B. rubens has a slower rate of freezing acclimation that leads to intolerance of sudden, late-autumn drops in temperature below -12°C, B. tectorum rapidly hardens and so is not impacted by the sudden onset of severe late-autumn cold. In addition, the analysis of male reproductive development and seed production showed that neither species produces seed at or above 36°C, due to complete pollen sterility, which might trigger climate-mediated range contractions at B. tectorum and B. rubens southern margins. Finally, a detailed gas-exchange analysis combined with biochemical modelling demonstrated that both species acclimate to a broad range of temperatures and photosynthetic response to temperature does not explain their current range separation.

  4. Analyzing fractal property of species abundance distribution and diversity indexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Qiang

    2016-03-07

    Community diversity is usually characterized by numerical indexes; however it indeed depends on the species abundance distribution (SAD). Diversity indexes and SAD are based on the same information but treating as separate themes. Ranking species abundance from largest to smallest, the decreasing pattern can give the information about the SAD. Frontier proposed such SAD might be a fractal structure, and first applied the Zipf-Mandelbrot model to the SAD study. However, this model fails to include the Zipf model, and also fails to ensure an integer rank. In this study, a fractal model of SAD was reconstructed, and tested with 104 community samples from 8 taxonomic groups. The results show that there was a good fit of the presented model. Fractal parameter (p) determines the SAD of a community. The ecological significance of p relates to the "dominance" of a community. The correlation between p and classical diversity indexes show that Shannon index decreases and Simpson index increases as p increases. The main purpose of this paper is not to compare with other SADs models; it simply provides a new interpretation of SAD model construction, and preliminarily integrates diversity indexes and SAD model into a broader perspective of community diversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Community structure informs species geographic distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Montesinos-Navarro, Alicia; Estrada, Alba; Font, Xavier; Matias, Miguel G.; Meireles, Catarina; Mendoza, Manuel; Honrado, Joao P.; Prasad, Hari D.; Vicente, Joana R.; Early, Regan

    2018-01-01

    spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. 'community structure') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales

  6. Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

    2011-06-01

    Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

  7. Mathematical modeling and comparison of protein size distribution in different plant, animal, fungal and microbial species reveals a negative correlation between protein size and protein number, thus providing insight into the evolution of proteomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiessen Axel

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sizes of proteins are relevant to their biochemical structure and for their biological function. The statistical distribution of protein lengths across a diverse set of taxa can provide hints about the evolution of proteomes. Results Using the full genomic sequences of over 1,302 prokaryotic and 140 eukaryotic species two datasets containing 1.2 and 6.1 million proteins were generated and analyzed statistically. The lengthwise distribution of proteins can be roughly described with a gamma type or log-normal model, depending on the species. However the shape parameter of the gamma model has not a fixed value of 2, as previously suggested, but varies between 1.5 and 3 in different species. A gamma model with unrestricted shape parameter described best the distributions in ~48% of the species, whereas the log-normal distribution described better the observed protein sizes in 42% of the species. The gamma restricted function and the sum of exponentials distribution had a better fitting in only ~5% of the species. Eukaryotic proteins have an average size of 472 aa, whereas bacterial (320 aa and archaeal (283 aa proteins are significantly smaller (33-40% on average. Average protein sizes in different phylogenetic groups were: Alveolata (628 aa, Amoebozoa (533 aa, Fornicata (543 aa, Placozoa (453 aa, Eumetazoa (486 aa, Fungi (487 aa, Stramenopila (486 aa, Viridiplantae (392 aa. Amino acid composition is biased according to protein size. Protein length correlated negatively with %C, %M, %K, %F, %R, %W, %Y and positively with %D, %E, %Q, %S and %T. Prokaryotic proteins had a different protein size bias for %E, %G, %K and %M as compared to eukaryotes. Conclusions Mathematical modeling of protein length empirical distributions can be used to asses the quality of small ORFs annotation in genomic releases (detection of too many false positive small ORFs. There is a negative correlation between average protein size and total number of

  8. Big data of tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Enquist, Brian J.; Maitner, Brian

    2018-01-01

    are currently available in big databases, several challenges hamper their use, notably geolocation problems and taxonomic uncertainty. Further, we lack a complete picture of the data coverage and quality assessment for open/public databases of tree occurrences. Methods: We combined data from five major...... and data aggregation, especially from national forest inventory programs, to improve the current publicly available data.......Background: Trees play crucial roles in the biosphere and societies worldwide, with a total of 60,065 tree species currently identified. Increasingly, a large amount of data on tree species occurrences is being generated worldwide: from inventories to pressed plants. While many of these data...

  9. species composition, relative abundance and distribution

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    College of Natural Sciences, Addis Ababa University, 2011. ISSN: 0379– ... distribution at Entoto Natural Park and escarpment was carried out during July 2009 - March 2010. The study ..... University Press, Princeton and Oxford, 496 pp. 20.

  10. Species Distribution and Antibiotic Resistance in Coagulase ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: The antimicrobial susceptibility of 149 coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) isolates from faecal samples of children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria, was evaluated in order to determine their contribution to antimicrobial resistance in the community. Methods: The isolates were identified to the species level by conventional ...

  11. Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Elaine S.; Kienast, Felix; Pearman, Peter B.

    2010-01-01

    Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic var...

  12. Species identification, distribution and abundance of Gerreidae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and abundance of Gerres in estuaries wa'S collected from July 1978 to ..... the channel area between the W.L.R. and the mouth (not the tidal basin) during ..... overwhelming importance in the kelp beds of Britain. Recently Blaber ...

  13. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

    2018-03-01

    Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Comprehensive distributed-parameters modeling and experimental validation of microcantilever-based biosensors with an application to ultrasmall biological species detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faegh, Samira; Jalili, Nader

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnological advancements have made a great contribution in developing label-free and highly sensitive biosensors. The detection of ultrasmall adsorbed masses has been enabled by such sensors which transduce molecular interaction into detectable physical quantities. More specifically, microcantilever-based biosensors have caught widespread attention for offering a label-free, highly sensitive and inexpensive platform for biodetection. Although there are a lot of studies investigating microcantilever-based sensors and their biological applications, a comprehensive mathematical modeling and experimental validation of such devices providing a closed form mathematical framework is still lacking. In almost all of the studies, a simple lumped-parameters model has been proposed. However, in order to have a precise biomechanical sensor, a comprehensive model is required being capable of describing all phenomena and dynamics of the biosensor. Therefore, in this study, an extensive distributed-parameters modeling framework is proposed for the piezoelectric microcantilever-based biosensor using different methodologies for the purpose of detecting an ultrasmall adsorbed mass over the microcantilever surface. An optimum modeling methodology is concluded and verified with the experiment. This study includes three main parts. In the first part, the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory is used to model the nonuniform piezoelectric microcantilever. Simulation results are obtained and presented. The same system is then modeled as a nonuniform rectangular plate. The simulation results are presented describing model's capability in the detection of an ultrasmall mass. Finally the last part presents the experimental validation verifying the modeling results. It was shown that plate modeling predicts the real situation with a degree of precision of 99.57% whereas modeling the system as an Euler–Bernoulli beam provides a 94.45% degree of precision. The detection of ultrasmall

  15. Book review: A new view on the species abundance distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2018-01-01

    The sampled relative abundances of species of a taxonomic group, whether birds, trees, or moths, in a natural community at a particular place vary in a way that suggests a consistent underlying pattern, referred to as the species abundance distribution (SAD). Preston [1] conjectured that the numbers of species, plotted as a histogram of logarithmic abundance classes called octaves, seemed to fit a lognormal distribution; that is, the histograms look like normal distributions, although truncated on the left-hand, or low-species-abundance, end. Although other specific curves for the SAD have been proposed in the literature, Preston’s lognormal distribution is widely cited in textbooks and has stimulated attempts at explanation. An important aspect of Preston’s lognormal distribution is the ‘veil line’, a vertical line drawn exactly at the point of the left-hand truncation in the distribution, to the left of which would be species missing from the sample. Dewdney rejects the lognormal conjecture. Instead, starting with the long-recognized fact that the number of species sampled from a community, when plotted as histograms against population abundance, resembles an inverted J, he presents a mathematical description of an alternative that he calls the ‘J distribution’, a hyperbolic density function truncated at both ends. When multiplied by species richness, R, it becomes the SAD of the sample.

  16. Characterization of Quercus species distributed in Jordan using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Characterization of Quercus species distributed in Jordan using morphological and molecular markers. Mohammad S Jawarneh, Mohammad H Brake, Riyadh Muhaidat, Hussein M Migdadi, Jamil N Lahham, Ahmad Ali El-Oqlah ...

  17. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  18. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  19. Abundance, distribution and species composition of fish larvae in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    improving our knowledge of the abundance, distribution and species diversity ... banks as well as in the mid-channel, thus eliminating any bias that might have .... cond method (Table 2) may bias the importance of a single species due to one, ...

  20. Identity and distribution of southern African sciaenid fish species of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two Umbrina species, U. canariensis Valenciennes 1843 and U. robinsoni Gilchrist and Thompson 1908, are recognised from southern Africa. The latter species was hitherto believed to be a synonym of Umbrina ronchus Valenciennes 1843 (type locality Canary Islands). U. canariensis is distributed along the South Africa ...

  1. Distribution characteristics of mineral elements in tree Species from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tree species populations were 44 in Akyaakrom (AS), 29 in Dopiri (DS), and families were 18 in AS and 16 in DS. Tree densities were 121 and 99 in AS and DS, respectively, in 0.57 ha. In terms of tree species population, diversity and density, AS was superior to DS. The distribution of major mineral elements in the leaves ...

  2. Dispersal ability determines the scaling properties of species abundance distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borda-De-Água, Luís; Whittaker, Robert James; Cardoso, Pedro

    2017-01-01

    with computer simulations, low dispersal ability species generate a hump for intermediate abundance classes earlier than the distributions of high dispersal ability species. Importantly, when plotted as function of sample size, the raw moments of the SADs of arthropods have a power law pattern similar...

  3. The implicit assumption of symmetry and the species abundance distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, D.; Ostling, A.; Etienne, R.S.

    2008-01-01

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) have played a historical role in the development of community ecology. They summarize information about the number and the relative abundance of the species encountered in a sample from a given community. For years ecologists have developed theory to

  4. The implicit assumption of symmetry and the species abundance distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, David; Ostling, Annette; Etienne, Rampal S.

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) have played a historical role in the development of community ecology. They summarize information about the number and the relative abundance of the species encountered in a sample from a given community. For years ecologists have developed theory to

  5. A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Sweeney, Steven J; Miller, Ryan S

    2018-03-28

    In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

  6. From Logical to Distributional Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Preller

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper relates two variants of semantic models for natural language, logical functional models and compositional distributional vector space models, by transferring the logic and reasoning from the logical to the distributional models. The geometrical operations of quantum logic are reformulated as algebraic operations on vectors. A map from functional models to vector space models makes it possible to compare the meaning of sentences word by word.

  7. Species Composition, Relative Abundance and Distribution of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Species Composition, Relative Abundance and Distribution of the Avian Fauna of Entoto Natural Park and Escarpment, Addis Ababa. ... Eucalyptus plantation, soil erosion, deforestation, habitat fragmentation, settlement and land degradation were the main threats for the distribution of birds in the present study area.

  8. The origin and distribution of neotropical species of Campylopus

    OpenAIRE

    Frahm, Jan-Peter

    1990-01-01

    Of the 65 species of Campylopus known from tropical America, 33 are andine in distribution, 16 are found only in SE Brazil, 8 have wide ranges through Central and South America, 3 species are disjunct in SE-North America and Brazil, 3 are confined to the Caribbean and one species belongs to the circum-pacific and one to the tethyan element. For different parts of the Neotropics, the composition of phytogeographical elements is calculated. For the first time, bryophyte distributions are compar...

  9. Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetz, W.

    2016-12-01

    Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

  10. Distribution and diversity of twelve Curcuma species in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lanyue; Wei, Jingwen; Yang, Zhiwen; Chen, Feng; Xian, Qiqiu; Su, Ping; Pan, Wanyi; Zhang, Kun; Zheng, Xi; Du, Zhiyun

    2018-02-01

    Genus Curcuma a wild species presents an important source of valuable characters for improving the cultivated Curcuma varieties. Based on the collected germplasms, herbariums, field surveys and other literatures, the ecogeographical diversity of Genus Curcuma and its potential distributions under the present and future climate are analysed by DIVA-GIS. The results indicate Genus Curcuma is distributed over 17 provinces in China, and particularly abundant in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. The simulated current distributions are close to the actual distribution regions. In the future climate, the suitable areas for four Curcuma species will be extended, while for other three species the regions will be significantly decreased, and thus these valuable resources need protecting.

  11. Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

    2017-06-01

    Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Distributed Parameter Modelling Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    and the development of a short-path evaporator. The oil shale processing problem illustrates the interplay amongst particle flows in rotating drums, heat and mass transfer between solid and gas phases. The industrial application considers the dynamics of an Alberta-Taciuk processor, commonly used in shale oil and oil...... the steady state, distributed behaviour of a short-path evaporator....

  13. Tree species distribution in temperate forests is more influenced by soil than by climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walthert, Lorenz; Meier, Eliane Seraina

    2017-11-01

    Knowledge of the ecological requirements determining tree species distributions is a precondition for sustainable forest management. At present, the abiotic requirements and the relative importance of the different abiotic factors are still unclear for many temperate tree species. We therefore investigated the relative importance of climatic and edaphic factors for the abundance of 12 temperate tree species along environmental gradients. Our investigations are based on data from 1,075 forest stands across Switzerland including the cold-induced tree line of all studied species and the drought-induced range boundaries of several species. Four climatic and four edaphic predictors represented the important growth factors temperature, water supply, nutrient availability, and soil aeration. The climatic predictors were derived from the meteorological network of MeteoSwiss, and the edaphic predictors were available from soil profiles. Species cover abundances were recorded in field surveys. The explanatory power of the predictors was assessed by variation partitioning analyses with generalized linear models. For six of the 12 species, edaphic predictors were more important than climatic predictors in shaping species distribution. Over all species, abundances depended mainly on nutrient availability, followed by temperature, water supply, and soil aeration. The often co-occurring species responded similar to these growth factors. Drought turned out to be a determinant of the lower range boundary for some species. We conclude that over all 12 studied tree species, soil properties were more important than climate variables in shaping tree species distribution. The inclusion of appropriate soil variables in species distribution models allowed to better explain species' ecological niches. Moreover, our study revealed that the ecological requirements of tree species assessed in local field studies and in experiments are valid at larger scales across Switzerland.

  14. High-resolution pattern of mangrove species distribution is controlled by surface elevation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Rick C.; Friess, Daniel A.; Crase, Beth; Lee, Wei Kit; Webb, Edward L.

    2018-03-01

    Mangrove vegetation species respond to multiple environmental gradients, and an enhanced understanding of how mangrove species are distributed across these gradients will facilitate conservation and management. Many environmental gradients correlate with tidal inundation; however small-scale inundation patterns resulting from microtopographical changes are difficult to capture empirically. In contrast, surface elevation is often a suitable, measurable and cost-effective proxy for inundation. This study investigated the relationships between species distribution and surface elevation in a mangrove forest in northwest Singapore. Through high-resolution land surveying, we developed a digital elevation model (DEM) and conducted a comprehensive survey of 4380 trees with a stem diameter ≥ 5 cm. A total of 15 species were encountered, and elevation envelopes were generated for 12. Species envelopes were distributed along an elevation continuum, with most species overlapping within the continuum. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) was present for nine of the 15 species, and when taken into account, species ordering was modified across the elevation continuum. The presence of SAC strongly reinforces the need for research to control for SAC: classical spatial description of mangrove species distribution should be revised to account for ecological factors. This study suggests that (1) surface elevation applies strong controls on species distribution and (2) most mangroves at our study site have similar physiological tolerances.

  15. [Species composition and distribution of medical mollusca in Shanghai City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yun-hai; Lv, Shan; Gu, Wen-biao; Liu, He-xiang; Wu, Ying; Zhang, Yi

    2015-02-01

    To investigate the species diversity and distribution of medical mollusca in Shanghai City. From August 2012 to October 2013, all kinds of habitats in 8 districts and counties in Shanghai City, namely Jiading, Qingpu, Baoshan, Minhang, Songjiang, Jinshan, Chongming, Pudong, were selected for the field survey according to the distribution characteristics of the river system, and all the specimens of medical mollusca in the investigation sites were collected and classified by morphological identification. Meanwhile, the species composition, habitats as well as the fauna of the medical mollusca collected were analyzed. A total of 5,211 specimens were collected, which belonged to 2 classes, 14 families, 18 genera and 25 species, including Oncomelania hupensis hupensis, Pomacea canaliculata, Parafossarulus striatulus, Alocinma longicornis, Physa acuta, Galba pervia, Hippeutis cantori, etc. The species numbers of medical mollusca in Chongming, Jinshan, Pudong new area and Qingpu districts (counties) were 22, 22, 21 and 20, respectively, which were more than those of other areas. The habitat analysis suggested that the species numbers in the river and wetland were the most, both of which were 14 species. The main faunas of the medical mollusca in Shanghai were the cosmopolitan and oriental species. The freshwater gastropod species are paucity in Shanghai City, but almost of them can be served as the intermediate hosts of certain parasites to transmit snail-related parasitic diseases, so the surveillance of medical mollusca should be strengthened.

  16. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2001-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  17. Biotic Interactions Shape the Ecological Distributions of Staphylococcus Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastman, Erik K; Kamelamela, Noelani; Norville, Josh W; Cosetta, Casey M; Dutton, Rachel J; Wolfe, Benjamin E

    2016-10-18

    Many metagenomic sequencing studies have observed the presence of closely related bacterial species or genotypes in the same microbiome. Previous attempts to explain these patterns of microdiversity have focused on the abiotic environment, but few have considered how biotic interactions could drive patterns of microbiome diversity. We dissected the patterns, processes, and mechanisms shaping the ecological distributions of three closely related Staphylococcus species in cheese rind biofilms. Paradoxically, the most abundant species (S. equorum) is the slowest colonizer and weakest competitor based on growth and competition assays in the laboratory. Through in vitro community reconstructions, we determined that biotic interactions with neighboring fungi help resolve this paradox. Species-specific stimulation of the poor competitor by fungi of the genus Scopulariopsis allows S. equorum to dominate communities in vitro as it does in situ Results of comparative genomic and transcriptomic experiments indicate that iron utilization pathways, including a homolog of the S. aureus staphyloferrin B siderophore operon pathway, are potential molecular mechanisms underlying Staphylococcus-Scopulariopsis interactions. Our integrated approach demonstrates that fungi can structure the ecological distributions of closely related bacterial species, and the data highlight the importance of bacterium-fungus interactions in attempts to design and manipulate microbiomes. Decades of culture-based studies and more recent metagenomic studies have demonstrated that bacterial species in agriculture, medicine, industry, and nature are unevenly distributed across time and space. The ecological processes and molecular mechanisms that shape these distributions are not well understood because it is challenging to connect in situ patterns of diversity with mechanistic in vitro studies in the laboratory. Using tractable cheese rind biofilms and a focus on coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CNS

  18. Plant species distribution along environmental gradient: do belowground interactions with fungi matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loïc ePellissier

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of plants along environmental gradients is constrained by abiotic and biotic factors. Cumulative evidence attests of the impact of abiotic factors on plant distributions, but only few studies discuss the role of belowground communities. Soil fungi, in particular, are thought to play an important role in how plant species assemble locally into communities. We first review existing evidence, and then test the effect of the number of soil fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs on plant species distributions using a recently collected dataset of plant and metagenomic information on soil fungi in the Western Swiss Alps. Using species distribution models, we investigated whether the distribution of individual plant species is correlated to the number of OTUs of two important soil fungal classes known to interact with plants: the Glomeromycetes, that are obligatory symbionts of plants, and the Agaricomycetes, that may be facultative plant symbionts, pathogens, or wood decayers. We show that including the fungal richness information in the models of plant species distributions improves predictive accuracy. Number of fungal OTUs is especially correlated to the distribution of high elevation plant species. We suggest that high elevation soil show greater variation in fungal assemblages that may in turn impact plant turnover among communities. We finally discuss how to move beyond correlative analyses, through the design of field experiments manipulating plant and fungal communities along environmental gradients.

  19. [Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

    2013-05-01

    Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

  20. Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon J Pittman

    Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support

  1. Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

  2. Temperature effects on gametophyte life-history traits and geographic distribution of two cryptic kelp species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L Valeria Oppliger

    Full Text Available A major determinant of the geographic distribution of a species is expected to be its physiological response to changing abiotic variables over its range. The range of a species often corresponds to the geographic extent of temperature regimes the organism can physiologically tolerate. Many species have very distinct life history stages that may exhibit different responses to environmental factors. In this study we emphasized the critical role of the haploid microscopic stage (gametophyte of the life cycle to explain the difference of edge distribution of two related kelp species. Lessonia nigrescens was recently identified as two cryptic species occurring in parapatry along the Chilean coast: one located north and the other south of a biogeographic boundary at latitude 29-30°S. Six life history traits from microscopic stages were identified and estimated under five treatments of temperature in eight locations distributed along the Chilean coast in order to (1 estimate the role of temperature in the present distribution of the two cryptic L. nigrescens species, (2 compare marginal populations to central populations of the two cryptic species. In addition, we created a periodic matrix model to estimate the population growth rate (λ at the five temperature treatments. Differential tolerance to temperature was demonstrated between the two species, with the gametophytes of the Northern species being more tolerant to higher temperatures than gametophytes from the south. Second, the two species exhibited different life history strategies with a shorter haploid phase in the Northern species contrasted with considerable vegetative growth in the Southern species haploid stage. These results provide strong ecological evidence for the differentiation process of the two cryptic species and show local adaptation of the life cycle at the range limits of the distribution. Ecological and evolutionary implications of these findings are discussed.

  3. Species distributions, quantum theory, and the enhancement of biodiversity measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Real, Raimundo; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    Species distributions are typically represented by records of their observed occurrence at a given spatial and temporal scale. Such records are inevitably incomplete and contingent on the spatial–temporal circumstances under which the observations were made. Moreover, organisms may respond...... biodiversity”. We show how conceptualizing species’ distributions in this way could help overcome important weaknesses in current biodiversity metrics, both in theory and by using a worked case study of mammal distributions in Spain over the last decade. We propose that considerable theoretical advances could...

  4. VEGETATIVE MORPHOLOGY FOR SPECIES IDENTIFICATION OF TROPICAL TREES: FAMILY DISTRIBUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Hargreaves

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Tree specimens from the ESAL herbarium of the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were describedby vegetative characteristics using CARipé, a Microsoft Access database application specially developed for this study. Only onespecimen per species was usually described. Thus, 2 observers described 567 herbarium species as a base to test methods ofidentification as part of a larger study. The present work formed part of that study and provides information on the distribution of22 vegetative characters among 16 families having 10 or more species described. The characters are discussed. The study foundmarked differences, even discontinuities, of distributions of characters between those families. Therefore it should be possible toincorporate phylogenetic relationships into the identification process.

  5. Endangered species toxicity extrapolation using ICE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species (T&E) included the recommendation of using interspecies correlation models (ICE) as an alternative to general safety factors for extrapolating across species. ...

  6. Ecological Effects of the Invasive Giant Madagascar Day Gecko on Endemic Mauritian Geckos: Applications of Binomial-Mixture and Species Distribution Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buckland, S.; Cole, N.C.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Gallagher, L.E.; Henshaw, S.M.; Besnard, A.; Tucker, R.M.; Bachraz, V.; Ruhomaun, K.; Harris, S.

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos

  7. Distribution of metal and adsorbed guest species in zeolites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chmelka, B.F.

    1989-12-01

    Because of their high internal surface areas and molecular-size cavity dimensions, zeolites are used widely as catalysts, shape- selective supports, or adsorbents in a variety of important chemical processes. For metal-catalyzed reactions, active metal species must be dispersed to sites within the zeolite pores that are accessible to diffusing reactant molecules. The distribution of the metal, together with transport and adsorption of reactant molecules in zeolite powders, are crucial to ultimate catalyst performance. The nature of the metal or adsorbed guest distribution is known, however, to be dramatically dependent upon preparatory conditions. Our objective is to understand, at the molecular level, how preparatory treatments influence the distribution of guest species in zeolites, in order that macroscopic adsorption and reaction properties of these materials may be better understood. The sensitivity of xenon to its adsorption environment makes {sup 129}Xe NMR spectroscopy an important diagnostic probe of metal clustering and adsorbate distribution processes in zeolites. The utility of {sup 129}Xe NMR depends on the mobility of the xenon atoms within the zeolite-guest system, together with the length scale of the sample heterogeneity being studied. In large pore zeolites containing dispersed guest species, such as Pt--NaY, {sup 129}Xe NMR is insensitive to fine structural details at room temperature.

  8. Distribution of metal and adsorbed guest species in zeolites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmelka, B.F.

    1989-12-01

    Because of their high internal surface areas and molecular-size cavity dimensions, zeolites are used widely as catalysts, shape- selective supports, or adsorbents in a variety of important chemical processes. For metal-catalyzed reactions, active metal species must be dispersed to sites within the zeolite pores that are accessible to diffusing reactant molecules. The distribution of the metal, together with transport and adsorption of reactant molecules in zeolite powders, are crucial to ultimate catalyst performance. The nature of the metal or adsorbed guest distribution is known, however, to be dramatically dependent upon preparatory conditions. Our objective is to understand, at the molecular level, how preparatory treatments influence the distribution of guest species in zeolites, in order that macroscopic adsorption and reaction properties of these materials may be better understood. The sensitivity of xenon to its adsorption environment makes 129 Xe NMR spectroscopy an important diagnostic probe of metal clustering and adsorbate distribution processes in zeolites. The utility of 129 Xe NMR depends on the mobility of the xenon atoms within the zeolite-guest system, together with the length scale of the sample heterogeneity being studied. In large pore zeolites containing dispersed guest species, such as Pt--NaY, 129 Xe NMR is insensitive to fine structural details at room temperature

  9. Ecological Effects of the Invasive Giant Madagascar Day Gecko on Endemic Mauritian Geckos: Applications of Binomial-Mixture and Species Distribution Models

    OpenAIRE

    Buckland, S.; Cole, N.C.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Gallagher, L.E.; Henshaw, S.M.; Besnard, A.; Tucker, R.M.; Bachraz, V.; Ruhomaun, K.; Harris, S.

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to...

  10. Gulf of California species and catch spatial distributions and historical time series - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  11. Distribution patterns of Saccharomyces species in cultural landscapes of Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brysch-Herzberg, Michael; Seidel, Martin

    2017-08-01

    The distribution patterns of the three Saccharomyces species, Saccharomyces paradoxus, S. uvarum and S. cerevisiae, were investigated by a culture-dependent approach in order to understand better how these species propagate in the cultural landscape of Germany. Saccharomyces paradoxus, the closest relative of S. cerevisiae, is shown to be a true woodland species. It was frequently found in the soil under conifers indicating that S. paradoxus is an autochthonous member of the microbial community in this habitat. Physiological characteristics of the species like the Crabtree effect and high tolerance against ethanol suggest that the species is adapted to regular supply with considerable amounts of sugars. Additionally, a high proportion of the S. paradoxus strains isolated in this study are shown to have the rare ability to ferment melezitose. For these reasons, it is hypothesized that S. paradoxus may be closely associated with the honeydew system in forests. Saccharomyces cerevisiae was rare in most habitats and only exceeded the frequency of S. paradoxus in habitats characterized by modern agricultural mass production of fruit. Both the landscape structure and the agricultural system heavily influence the frequencies of Saccharomyces species. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Species composition and geographical distribution of Saharan scorpion fauna, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oulaid Touloun

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe the species composition of scorpions and to study its geographical distribution in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and Dakhla-Oued Ed Dahab regions in July 2014. Methods: To locate scorpions, the ground was examined through searching the places under the stones, rocks and in burrows. The nocturnal missions were also conducted using portable ultraviolet lamps. The scorpions were subsequently identified in the laboratory. Results: The results of the investigations in these regions showed the presence of five scorpion species, two of which Androctonus gonneti and Buthus bonito were endemic in Morocco. Conclusions: This work is allowed to complete the inventory of the studied scorpion fauna and provides some considerations on the distribution patterns in the study area.

  13. Drought tolerance of tropical tree species : functional traits, trade-offs and species distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Markesteijn, L.

    2010-01-01

    KEY-WORDS:
    Bolivia, drought tolerance, shade tolerance, functional traits, trade-offs, ecophysiology, species distribution
    Tropical forests occur under rainfall regimes that vary greatly in the rainfall pattern and frequency and intensity of drought. Consequently water availability is

  14. Implications of human induced changes on the distribution of important plant species in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwa Waseem Halmy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

  15. What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil p

  16. Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

    2014-10-01

    Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

  17. [Relation between species distribution of plant community and soil factors under grazing in alpine meadow].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Yu Jie; Yang, Si Wei; Wang, Gui Zhen; Liu, Li; Du, Guo Zhen; Hua, Li Min

    2017-12-01

    The research selected the alpine meadow located in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the changes of vegetation community and soil properties under different grazing intensities, as well as the quantitative relation between the distribution patterns of plant species and the physical and chemical properties of soil. The results showed that the grazing caused the differentiation of the initial vegetation community with the dominant plants, Elymus nutans and Stipa grandis. In the plots with high and low grazing intensities, the dominant plants had changed to Kobresia humilis and Melissitus ruthenica, and E. nutans and Poa crymophila, respectively. With the increase of grazing intensity, the plant richness, importance value and biomass were significantly decreased. The sequence of plant species importance value in each plot against grazing intensity could be fitted by a logarithmic model. The number of required plant species was reduced while the importance value of the remaining plant species accounted for 50% of the importance value in the whole vegetation community. The available P, available K, soil compaction, soil water content, stable infiltration rate and large aggregate index were significantly changed with grazing intensity, however, the changes were different. The CCA ordination showed that the soil compaction was the key factor affecting the distribution pattern of the plant species under grazing. The variance decomposition indicated that the soil factors together explained 30.5% of the distribution of the plant species, in particular the soil physical properties alone explained 22.8% of the distribution of the plant species, which had the highest rate of contribution to the plant species distribution. The soil physical properties affected the distribution pattern of plant species on grazed alpine meadow.

  18. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  19. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  20. A model of seasonal foliage dynamics of the subtropical mangrove species Rhizophora stylosa Griff. growing at the northern limit of its distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahadev Sharma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Progress of forest production in response to the environment requires a quantitative understanding of leaf area development. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the dynamics of seasonal crown foliage in order to understand the productivity of mangroves, which play an important role in the subtropical and tropical coastlines of the world. Method Crown foliage dynamics of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa were studies to reveal patterns of leaf recruitment, survival and seasonal leaf area growth. Results Flushing of leaves occurred throughout the year, but both flushing and leaf area growth pattern of leaves varied with season. Maximum flushing occurred in summer, but leaf areas did not differ significantly with season. The half-expansion period is longer, and the intrinsic rate of increase was lower in winter. Summer flushed leaves grew faster at their initial stage and reached their maximum area over a shorter period of time. The difference in temperature and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD between summer and winter contributed to the present dynamics of foliage patterns. The mean leaf longevity was estimated to be 13.1 month. The crown foliage area was almost stable throughout the year. Conclusions Homeostatic control of the crown foliage area may be accompanied by the existence of ecophysiological mechanisms in R. stylosa. Integrating crown foliage dynamics into forest models represents an important step towards incorporating physiological mechanisms into the models for predicting growth responses to environmental changes and for understanding the complex responses of tree growth and litter production.

  1. Estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of species richness within Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wathen

    Full Text Available Evidence for significant losses of species richness or biodiversity, even within protected natural areas, is mounting. Managers are increasingly being asked to monitor biodiversity, yet estimating biodiversity is often prohibitively expensive. As a cost-effective option, we estimated the spatial and temporal distribution of species richness for four taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, herpetofauna (reptiles and amphibians, and plants within Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks using only existing biological studies undertaken within the Parks and the Parks' long-term wildlife observation database. We used a rarefaction approach to model species richness for the four taxonomic groups and analyzed those groups by habitat type, elevation zone, and time period. We then mapped the spatial distributions of species richness values for the four taxonomic groups, as well as total species richness, for the Parks. We also estimated changes in species richness for birds, mammals, and herpetofauna since 1980. The modeled patterns of species richness either peaked at mid elevations (mammals, plants, and total species richness or declined consistently with increasing elevation (herpetofauna and birds. Plants reached maximum species richness values at much higher elevations than did vertebrate taxa, and non-flying mammals reached maximum species richness values at higher elevations than did birds. Alpine plant communities, including sagebrush, had higher species richness values than did subalpine plant communities located below them in elevation. These results are supported by other papers published in the scientific literature. Perhaps reflecting climate change: birds and herpetofauna displayed declines in species richness since 1980 at low and middle elevations and mammals displayed declines in species richness since 1980 at all elevations.

  2. An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suweis, Samir; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

    2012-07-01

    We present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology.

  3. An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suweis, Samir; Maritan, Amos; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    We present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth–death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology. (paper)

  4. Video distribution system cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershkoff, I.; Haspert, J. K.; Morgenstern, B.

    1980-01-01

    A cost model that can be used to systematically identify the costs of procuring and operating satellite linked communications systems is described. The user defines a network configuration by specifying the location of each participating site, the interconnection requirements, and the transmission paths available for the uplink (studio to satellite), downlink (satellite to audience), and voice talkback (between audience and studio) segments of the network. The model uses this information to calculate the least expensive signal distribution path for each participating site. Cost estimates are broken downy by capital, installation, lease, operations and maintenance. The design of the model permits flexibility in specifying network and cost structure.

  5. Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chozas, Sergio; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín

    2017-05-01

    The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. : The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical

  6. Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Paulo Silva; de Andrade, Andrey José; Sciamarelli, Alan; Raizer, Josué; Menegatti, Jaqueline Aparecida; Hermes, Sandra Cristina Negreli Moreira; de Carvalho, Maria do Socorro Laurentino; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

    2015-01-01

    This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies. PMID:26018450

  7. Effects of urbanization on carnivore species distribution and richness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordenana, Miguel A.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Fisher, Robert N.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Siudyla, Shalene; Haas, Christopher D.; Harris, Sierra; Hathaway, Stacie A.; Turschak, Greta M.; Miles, A. Keith; Van Vuren, Dirk H.

    2010-01-01

    Urban development can have multiple effects on mammalian carnivore communities. We conducted a meta-analysis of 7,929 photographs from 217 localities in 11 camera-trap studies across coastal southern California to describe habitat use and determine the effects of urban proximity (distance to urban edge) and intensity (percentage of area urbanized) on carnivore occurrence and species richness in natural habitats close to the urban boundary. Coyotes (Canis latrans) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) were distributed widely across the region. Domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), raccoons (Procyon lotor), gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), mountain lions (Puma concolor), and Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana) were detected less frequently, and long-tailed weasels (Mustela frenata), American badgers (Taxidea taxus), western spotted skunks (Spilogale gracilis), and domestic cats (Felis catus) were detected rarely. Habitat use generally reflected availability for most species. Coyote and raccoon occurrence increased with both proximity to and intensity of urbanization, whereas bobcat, gray fox, and mountain lion occurrence decreased with urban proximity and intensity. Domestic dogs and Virginia opossums exhibited positive and weak negative relationships, respectively, with urban intensity but were unaffected by urban proximity. Striped skunk occurrence increased with urban proximity but decreased with urban intensity. Native species richness was negatively associated with urban intensity but not urban proximity, probably because of the stronger negative response of individual species to urban intensity.

  8. Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

    2013-01-01

    Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

  9. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Casajus

    Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  10. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  11. Distribution of Plasmids in Distinct Leptospira Pathogenic Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanzhuo; Zhuang, Xuran; Zhong, Yi; Zhang, Cuicai; Zhang, Yan; Zeng, Lingbing; Zhu, Yongzhang; He, Ping; Dong, Ke; Pal, Utpal; Guo, Xiaokui; Qin, Jinhong

    2015-11-01

    Leptospirosis, caused by pathogenic Leptospira, is a worldwide zoonotic infection. The genus Leptospira includes at least 21 species clustered into three groups--pathogens, non-pathogens, and intermediates--based on 16S rRNA phylogeny. Research on Leptospira is difficult due to slow growth and poor transformability of the pathogens. Recent identification of extrachromosomal elements besides the two chromosomes in L. interrogans has provided new insight into genome complexity of the genus Leptospira. The large size, low copy number, and high similarity of the sequence of these extrachromosomal elements with the chromosomes present challenges in isolating and detecting them without careful genome assembly. In this study, two extrachromosomal elements were identified in L. borgpetersenii serovar Ballum strain 56604 through whole genome assembly combined with S1 nuclease digestion following pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (S1-PFGE) analysis. Further, extrachromosomal elements in additional 15 Chinese epidemic strains of Leptospira, comprising L. borgpetersenii, L. weilii, and L. interrogans, were successfully separated and identified, independent of genome sequence data. Southern blot hybridization with extrachromosomal element-specific probes, designated as lcp1, lcp2 and lcp3-rep, further confirmed their occurrences as extrachromosomal elements. In total, 24 plasmids were detected in 13 out of 15 tested strains, among which 11 can hybridize with the lcp1-rep probe and 11 with the lcp2-rep probe, whereas two can hybridize with the lcp3-rep probe. None of them are likely to be species-specific. Blastp search of the lcp1, lcp2, and lcp3-rep genes with a nonredundant protein database of Leptospira species genomes showed that their homologous sequences are widely distributed among clades of pathogens but not non-pathogens or intermediates. These results suggest that the plasmids are widely distributed in Leptospira species, and further elucidation of their biological

  12. Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

    2018-01-01

    To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute

  13. Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion System Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Chengyuan

    2013-01-01

    The Blended-Wing-Body is a conceptual aircraft design with rear-mounted, over wing engines. Turboelectric distributed propulsion system with boundary layer ingestion has been considered for this aircraft. It uses electricity to transmit power from the core turbine to the fans, therefore dramatically increases bypass ratio to reduce fuel consumption and noise. This dissertation presents methods on designing the TeDP system, evaluating effects of boundary layer ingestion, modelling engine perfo...

  14. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential

  15. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frieda Beauregard

    Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study

  16. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  17. Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crall, Alycia W; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Panke, Brendon; Young, Nick; Renz, Mark; Morisette, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale (Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale (Tamarix) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P guiding invasive species monitoring, and we support the use of an iterative sampling design for

  18. Biodiversity and the Lotka-Volterra theory of species interactions: open systems and the distribution of logarithmic densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William G; Lundberg, Per

    2004-09-22

    Theoretical interest in the distributions of species abundances observed in ecological communities has focused recently on the results of models that assume all species are identical in their interactions with one another, and rely upon immigration and speciation to promote coexistence. Here we examine a one-trophic level system with generalized species interactions, including species-specific intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths, and density-independent immigration from a regional species pool. Comparisons between results from numerical integrations and an approximate analytic calculation for random communities demonstrate good agreement, and both approaches yield abundance distributions of nearly arbitrary shape, including bimodality for intermediate immigration rates.

  19. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-01-01

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD and R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P and CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD and R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment

  20. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-08-26

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD&R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P&CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD&R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment. The purposes

  1. Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brady J Mattsson

    Full Text Available Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

  2. Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

    2008-10-01

    Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

  3. Working toward integrated models of alpine plant distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Randin, Christophe F; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been frequently employed to forecast the response of alpine plants to global changes. Efforts to model alpine plant distribution have thus far been primarily based on a correlative approach, in which ecological processes are implicitly addressed through a statistical relationship between observed species occurrences and environmental predictors. Recent evidence, however, highlights the shortcomings of correlative SDMs, especially in alpine landscapes where plant species tend to be decoupled from atmospheric conditions in micro-topographic habitats and are particularly exposed to geomorphic disturbances. While alpine plants respond to the same limiting factors as plants found at lower elevations, alpine environments impose a particular set of scale-dependent and hierarchical drivers that shape the realized niche of species and that require explicit consideration in a modelling context. Several recent studies in the European Alps have successfully integrated both correlative and process-based elements into distribution models of alpine plants, but for the time being a single integrative modelling framework that includes all key drivers remains elusive. As a first step in working toward a comprehensive integrated model applicable to alpine plant communities, we propose a conceptual framework that structures the primary mechanisms affecting alpine plant distributions. We group processes into four categories, including multi-scalar abiotic drivers, gradient dependent species interactions, dispersal and spatial-temporal plant responses to disturbance. Finally, we propose a methodological framework aimed at developing an integrated model to better predict alpine plant distribution.

  4. Sapling performance along resource gradients drives tree species distributions within and across tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, F.J.; Markesteijn, L.; Toledo, M.; Schieving, F.; Poorter, L.

    2014-01-01

    Niche differentiation is a major hypothesized determinant of species distributions, but its practical importance is heavily debated and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Trait-based approaches have been used to infer niche differentiation and predict species distributions. For

  5. Maxent modelling for predicting the potential distribution of Thai Palms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Overgaard, Anne Blach

    2011-01-01

    on presence data. The aim was to identify potential hot spot areas, assess the determinants of palm distribution ranges, and provide a firmer knowledge base for future conservation actions. We focused on a relatively small number of climatic, environmental and spatial variables in order to avoid...... overprediction of species distribution ranges. The models with the best predictive power were found by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Here, we provide examples of contrasting predicted species distribution ranges as well as a map of modeled palm diversity...

  6. Distribution of Studied Insectivorous Bat Species of Myanmar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyo Nyo

    2005-10-01

    Fourty-five species of insectivourous bats; Craseonycteris thonglongyai, Emballonura monticola, Taphozous melenopongon, T. theobaldi, T. longimanus, Megaderma lyra, M. spasma, Rhinolophus affinis, R. rouxii, R. pusillus, R. lepidus, R. macrotis, R. trifoliatus, R. pearsoni, R. malayanus, R. stheno, R. thomasi, R. shameli, R. acuminatus, R. marshalli, Rhinolophus sp., Hipposideros pomona, H. larvatus, H. armiger, H. lylei, H. ater, H. fulvus, Aselliscus stoliczkanus, Tadarida plicata, Myotis siligorensis, M. muricola, M. horsfieldii, M. hasseltii, M. chinensis, Scotophilus heathii, S. kuhlii, Ia io, Pipistrellus javanicus, P. coromandra, P. pulveratus, P. paterculus, P. affinis, P. ceylonicus, Miniopterus pusillus and M. magnater were distributed in 7 Divisions; Yangon, Bago, Ayeyawady, Taninthayi, Magway, Mandalay and Sagaing Division, and 7 States; Mon, Kayin, Shan, Chin, Kayah, Kachin and Rakhine States of Myanmar.

  7. On the statistical mechanics of species abundance distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Michael G; Kelly, Colleen K

    2012-09-01

    A central issue in ecology is that of the factors determining the relative abundance of species within a natural community. The proper application of the principles of statistical physics to species abundance distributions (SADs) shows that simple ecological properties could account for the near universal features observed. These properties are (i) a limit on the number of individuals in an ecological guild and (ii) per capita birth and death rates. They underpin the neutral theory of Hubbell (2001), the master equation approach of Volkov et al. (2003, 2005) and the idiosyncratic (extreme niche) theory of Pueyo et al. (2007); they result in an underlying log series SAD, regardless of neutral or niche dynamics. The success of statistical mechanics in this application implies that communities are in dynamic equilibrium and hence that niches must be flexible and that temporal fluctuations on all sorts of scales are likely to be important in community structure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land-use...... change in the future distribution of 23 dominant tree species in mainland Spain. We simulated changes up to year 2100 using a climate-dependent Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model, parameterized with colonization and extinction events recorded in 46 596 survey plots. We estimated that the distribution of 17......% of the habitat, was estimated to reduce species occupancies (relative to baseline projections) by an average of 23% if habitat loss was spatially clumped, and by 35% if it was scattered. If habitat loss occurred in areas already impacted by human activities, species occupancies would be reduced by 26%. Land-use...

  9. Citizen science contributes to our knowledge of invasive plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crall, Alycia W.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Panke, Brendon; Renz, Mark; Stohlgren, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Citizen science is commonly cited as an effective approach to expand the scale of invasive species data collection and monitoring. However, researchers often hesitate to use these data due to concerns over data quality. In light of recent research on the quality of data collected by volunteers, we aimed to demonstrate the extent to which citizen science data can increase sampling coverage, fill gaps in species distributions, and improve habitat suitability models compared to professionally generated data sets used in isolation. We combined data sets from professionals and volunteers for five invasive plant species (Alliaria petiolata, Berberis thunbergii, Cirsium palustre, Pastinaca sativa, Polygonum cuspidatum) in portions of Wisconsin. Volunteers sampled counties not sampled by professionals for three of the five species. Volunteers also added presence locations within counties not included in professional data sets, especially in southern portions of the state where professional monitoring activities had been minimal. Volunteers made a significant contribution to the known distribution, environmental gradients sampled, and the habitat suitability of P. cuspidatum. Models generated with professional data sets for the other four species performed reasonably well according to AUC values (>0.76). The addition of volunteer data did not greatly change model performance (AUC > 0.79) but did change the suitability surface generated by the models, making them more realistic. Our findings underscore the need to merge data from multiple sources to improve knowledge of current species distributions, and to predict their movement under present and future environmental conditions. The efficiency and success of these approaches require that monitoring efforts involve multiple stakeholders in continuous collaboration via established monitoring networks.

  10. Integrating DNA-based data into bioassessments improves our understanding of species distributions and species habitat relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    The integration of DNA-based identification methods into bioassessments could result in more accurate representations of species distributions and species-habitat relationships. DNA-based approaches may be particularly informative for tracking the distributions of rare and/or inv...

  11. An experimental test of fitness variation across a hydrologic gradient predicts willow and poplar species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaojing; Savage, Jessica A; Riggs, Charlotte E; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2017-05-01

    Environmental filtering is an important community assembly process influencing species distributions. Contrasting species abundance patterns along environmental gradients are commonly used to provide evidence for environmental filtering. However, the same abundance patterns may result from alternative or concurrent assembly processes. Experimental tests are an important means to decipher whether species fitness varies with environment, in the absence of dispersal constraints and biotic interactions, and to draw conclusions about the importance of environmental filtering in community assembly. We performed an experimental test of environmental filtering in 14 closely related willow and poplar species (family Salicaceae) by transplanting cuttings of each species into 40 common gardens established along a natural hydrologic gradient in the field, where competition was minimized and herbivory was controlled. We analyzed species fitness responses to the hydrologic environment based on cumulative growth and survival over two years using aster fitness models. We also examined variation in nine drought and flooding tolerance traits expected to contribute to performance based on a priori understanding of plant function in relation to water availability and stress. We found substantial evidence that environmental filtering along the hydrologic gradient played a critical role in determining species distributions. Fitness variation of each species in the field experiment was used to model their water table depth optima. These optima predicted 68% of the variation in species realized hydrologic niches based on peak abundance in naturally assembled communities in the surrounding region. Multiple traits associated with water transport efficiency and water stress tolerance were correlated with species hydrologic niches, but they did not necessarily covary with each other. As a consequence, species occupying similar hydrologic niches had different combinations of trait values

  12. Distribution of positive ion species above a diffuse midnight aurora

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, T.E.

    1978-01-01

    The origin of the hot plasma in the Earth's magnetosphere is still open to investigation. Mass composition is an indicator of source region, while the distribution functions bear the signatures of transport and energization processes. Only ions identified as H + and He ++ were detected, and the He ++ was statistically marginal. Coincident magnetic storms are likely to play a crucial role in populating the magnetosphere with energized ionospheric ions. The measured proton distribution was nearly isotropic over downcoming pitch angles at all energies and showed a depleted atmospheric source cone. The high-altitude proton energy distribution had a best fit temperature of 4.5 keV and a number density of 0.17 cm- 3 , corresponding to a peak intensity just over 10 5 cm -2 s -1 sr -1 keV -1 . Altitudinal variations are consistent with the theory of charge exchange of a time-steady incident proton population. Simultaneous electron measurements can be interpreted in terms of an incident electron distribution that is also thermal wih a similar number density but a temperature of 2.5 keV. Taken together, the ion and electron data are consistent with the model of diffuse auroras in which plasma convecting in from the magnetospheric tail precipitates due to strong pitch angle diffusion on auroral field lines linking the near Earth plasma sheet

  13. A new species of Desmopachria Babington (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) from Cuba with a prediction of its geographic distribution and notes on other Cuban species of the genus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megna, Yoandri S; Sánchez-Fernández, David

    2014-01-10

    A new species, Desmopachria andreae sp. n. is described from Cuba. Diagnostic characters including illustrations of male genitalia are provided and illustrated for the five species of the genus occurring on the island. For these five species both a simple key to adults and maps of their known distribution in Cuba are also provided. Using a Maximun Entropy method (MaxEnt), a distribution model was developed for D. andreae sp.n. Based on the model's predictions, this species has a higher probability of occurring in high altitude forests (above 1000 m a.s.l.), characterised by relatively low temperatures especially during the hottest and wettest seasons, specifically, the mountainous areas of the Macizo de Guamuhaya (Central Cuba), Sierra Maestra (S Cuba) and Nipe-Sagua-Baracoa (NE Cuba). In some of these areas the species has not yet been recorded, and should be searched for in future field surveys.

  14. Diameter distribution in a Brazilian tropical dry forest domain: predictions for the stand and species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Robson B DE; Bufalino, Lina; Alves, Francisco T; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

    2017-01-01

    Currently, there is a lack of studies on the correct utilization of continuous distributions for dry tropical forests. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the diameter structure of a brazilian tropical dry forest and to select suitable continuous distributions by means of statistic tools for the stand and the main species. Two subsets were randomly selected from 40 plots. Diameter at base height was obtained. The following functions were tested: log-normal; gamma; Weibull 2P and Burr. The best fits were selected by Akaike's information validation criterion. Overall, the diameter distribution of the dry tropical forest was better described by negative exponential curves and positive skewness. The forest studied showed diameter distributions with decreasing probability for larger trees. This behavior was observed for both the main species and the stand. The generalization of the function fitted for the main species show that the development of individual models is needed. The Burr function showed good flexibility to describe the diameter structure of the stand and the behavior of Mimosa ophthalmocentra and Bauhinia cheilantha species. For Poincianella bracteosa, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodum urundeuva better fitting was obtained with the log-normal function.

  15. Assessing distributions of two invasive species of contrasting habits in future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Rajendra Mohan; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Roy, Partha Sarathi

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the impact of climate change on species invasion is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Through this study, we try to answer how species differing in phenological cycles, specifically Cassia tora and Lantana camara, differ in the manner in which they invade new regions in India in the future climate. Since both species occupy identical niches, exploring their invasive potential in different climate change scenarios will offer critical insights into invasion and inform ecosystem management. We use three modelling protocols (i.e., maximum entropy, generalised linear model and generalised additive model) to predict the current distribution. Projections are made for both moderate (A1B) and extreme (A2) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The study reveals that the distributions of C. tora (annual) and L. camara (perennial) would depend on the precipitation of the warmest quarter and moisture availability. C. tora may demonstrate physiological tolerance to the mean diurnal temperature range and L. camara to the solar radiation. C. tora may invade central India, while L. camara may invade the Western Himalaya, parts of the Eastern Himalaya and the Western Ghats. The distribution ranges of both species could shift in the northern and north-eastern directions in India, owing to changes in moisture availability. The possible alterations in precipitation regimes could lead to water stress, which might have cascading effects on species invasion. L. camara might adapt to climate change better compared with C. tora. This comparative analysis of the future distributions of two invasive plants with contrasting habits demonstrates that temporal complementarity would prevail over the competition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Distribution of the invasive plant species Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden. in the Komi Republic (Russia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadin, Ivan; Dalke, Igor; Zakhozhiy, Ilya; Malyshev, Ruslan; Madi, Elena; Olga Kuzivanova; Kirillov, Dmitrii; Elsakov, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Occurrences of the invasive plant species Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden. in the Komi Republic (northeastern part of European Russia) were recorded and published in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF http://www.gbif.org) using the RIVR information system (http://ib.komisc.ru/add/rivr/en). RIVR stands for "Rasprostranenie Invasionnyh Vidov Rastenij" [Occurrence of Invasion Plant Species]. This citizen science project aims at collecting occurrence data about invasive plant species with the help of citizen scientists. Information can be added by any user after a simple registration (concept) process. However, the data published in GBIF are provided only by professional scientists. The total study area is approximately 19,000 km 2 . The GBIF resource contains 10894 Heracleum sosnowskyi occurrence points, each with their geographical coordinates and photographs of the plants in the locus of growth. The preliminary results of species distribution modelling on the territory of European North-East Russia presented.

  17. Climate and soil type together explain the distribution of microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Nattier

    Full Text Available The grasshopper genus Caledonula, endemic to New Caledonia, was studied to understand the evolution of species distributions in relation to climate and soil types. Based on a comprehensive sampling of 80 locations throughout the island, the genus was represented by five species, four of which are new to science, of which three are described here. All the species have limited distributions in New Caledonia. Bioclimatic niche modelling shows that all the species were found in association with a wet climate and reduced seasonality, explaining their restriction to the southern half of the island. The results suggest that the genus was ancestrally constrained by seasonality. A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using two mitochondrial and two nuclear markers. The partially resolved tree showed monophyly of the species found on metalliferous soils, and molecular dating indicated a rather recent origin for the genus. Adaptation to metalliferous soils is suggested by both morphological changes and radiation on these soils. The genus Caledonula is therefore a good model to understand the origin of microendemism in the context of recent and mixed influences of climate and soil type.

  18. Climate and soil type together explain the distribution of microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nattier, Romain; Grandcolas, Philippe; Pellens, Roseli; Jourdan, Hervé; Couloux, Arnaud; Poulain, Simon; Robillard, Tony

    2013-01-01

    The grasshopper genus Caledonula, endemic to New Caledonia, was studied to understand the evolution of species distributions in relation to climate and soil types. Based on a comprehensive sampling of 80 locations throughout the island, the genus was represented by five species, four of which are new to science, of which three are described here. All the species have limited distributions in New Caledonia. Bioclimatic niche modelling shows that all the species were found in association with a wet climate and reduced seasonality, explaining their restriction to the southern half of the island. The results suggest that the genus was ancestrally constrained by seasonality. A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using two mitochondrial and two nuclear markers. The partially resolved tree showed monophyly of the species found on metalliferous soils, and molecular dating indicated a rather recent origin for the genus. Adaptation to metalliferous soils is suggested by both morphological changes and radiation on these soils. The genus Caledonula is therefore a good model to understand the origin of microendemism in the context of recent and mixed influences of climate and soil type.

  19. Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

    2005-01-01

    We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...

  20. Distribution of the Ammoniated Species on the Surface of Ceres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammannito, E.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Carrorro, F. G.; Ciarniello, M.; Combe, J. P.; De Angelis, S.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Frigeri, A.; Marchi, S.; McSween, H. Y., Jr.; Raponi, A.; Toplis, M. J.; Tosi, F.; Castillo, J. C.; Capaccioni, F.; Capria, M. T.; Fonte, S.; Giardino, M.; Jaumann, R.; Longobardo, A.; Joy, S. P.; Magni, G.; McCord, T. B.; McFadden, L. A.; Palomba, E.; Pieters, C. M.; Polanskey, C. A.; Prettyman, T. H.; Rayman, M.; Raymond, C. A.; Schenk, P.; Zambon, F.; Russell, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    The Dawn spacecraft has been acquiring data on dwarf planet Ceres since January 2015 (1). The VIR spectrometer (0.25-5.0 μm) acquired data at different altitudes providing information on the composition of the surface of Ceres at resolutions ranging from few kilometers to about one hundred meters (2). The average spectrum of Ceres is well represented by a mixture of dark minerals, Mg- phyllosilicates, ammoniated clays, and Mg carbonates (3). This result confirms previous studies based on ground based spectra (4, 5). Maps of the surface at about 1 km/px show that the components identified in the average spectrum are present all across the surface with variations in their relative abundance (6). Some localized areas however have peculiar spectral characteristics. One example is the spectrum of the bright regions within Occator crater that is most consistent with a large amount of Na-carbonates and possibly ammonium salts (7). The presence of ammoniated species poses a constraint on the pH and redox condition during the evolution of Ceres. Therefore, we have studied the distribution across the surface of such species to better understand the evolutionary pathway of Ceres. References : (1) Russell, C. T. et al. 2016, Science. (2) De Sanctis M.C. et al., The VIR Spectrometer, 2011, Space Science Reviews. (3) De Sanctis M.C. et al. Ammoniated phyllosilicates on dwarf planet Ceres reveal an outer solar system origin, Nature, 2015. (4) King T. et al. (1992) Science, 255, 1551-1553. (5) Rivkin A.S. et al. (2006) Icarus, 185, 563-567. (6) Ammannito E. et al., Spectral diversity of Ceres surface as measured by VIR, 2016, Science. (7) De Sanctis et al. (2016), Nature

  1. Real-time modeling of heat distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei; Yarlanki, Srinivas

    2018-01-02

    Techniques for real-time modeling temperature distributions based on streaming sensor data are provided. In one aspect, a method for creating a three-dimensional temperature distribution model for a room having a floor and a ceiling is provided. The method includes the following steps. A ceiling temperature distribution in the room is determined. A floor temperature distribution in the room is determined. An interpolation between the ceiling temperature distribution and the floor temperature distribution is used to obtain the three-dimensional temperature distribution model for the room.

  2. Are species photosynthetic characteristics good predictors of seedling post-hurricane demographic patterns and species spatiotemporal distribution in a hurricane impacted wet montane forest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Denneko; McLaren, Kurt

    2018-05-01

    In situ measurements of leaf level photosynthetic response to light were collected from seedlings of ten tree species from a tropical montane wet forest, the John Crow Mountains, Jamaica. A model-based recursive partitioning ('mob') algorithm was then used to identify species associations based on their fitted photosynthetic response curves. Leaf area dark respiration (RD) and light saturated maximum photosynthetic (Amax) rates were also used as 'mob' partitioning variables, to identify species associations based on seedling demographic patterns (from June 2007 to May 2010) following a hurricane (Aug. 2007) and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stems in 2006 and 2012. RD and Amax rates ranged from 1.14 to 2.02 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1 and 2.97-5.87 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1, respectively, placing the ten species in the range of intermediate shade tolerance. Several parsimonious species 'mob' groups were formed based on 1) interspecific differences among species response curves, 2) variations in post-hurricane seedling demographic trends and 3) RD rates and species spatiotemporal distribution patterns at aspects that are more or less exposed to hurricanes. The composition of parsimonious groupings based on photosynthetic curves was not concordant with the groups based on demographic trends but was partially concordant with the RD - species spatiotemporal distribution groups. Our results indicated that the influence of photosynthetic characteristics on demographic traits and species distributions was not straightforward. Rather, there was a complex pattern of interaction between ecophysiological and demographic traits, which determined species successional status, post-hurricane response and ultimately, species distribution at our study site.

  3. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

  4. Effects of climate change on three species of Cupido (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae with different biogeographic distribution in Andalusia, southern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obregón, R.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the spatial distribution of rare or endangered species is of key importance to assess conservation status at different geographic scales and to develop conservation and recovery programs. In this paper we review and update the distribution of three species of Lycaenid butterflies in Andalusia (southern Spain: Cupido carswelli, C. lorquinii, and C. osiris. Cupido carswelli is endemic in south east Spain and is considered a vulnerable species in the Red Book of Invertebrates of Andalusia. Cupido lorquinii is an Iberian–Maghrebian endemism, found in the southern half of the Iberian peninsula. Cupido osiris, widely distributed in Europe and Central Asia, has its southern limit of distribution in Andalusia. We modeled the potential current distribution of these species in Andalusia, using Maxent. Their potential distribution was mainly conditioned by the presence of their host plants and, to a lesser extent, by climatic variables: rainfall during the warmest and coldest quarters of the year and annual mean temperature. AUC test values, sensitivity, and specificity for the three models were high, confirming the accuracy of the models and their high predictive values. We also modeled the potential future distributions of the three species under the climate change scenario A2a. Our results predict a significant reduction in the potential distribution for C. lorquinii —which has a wider distribution in Andalusia than the other two species— and for the more localized species, C. osiris and C. carswelli. This expected decline in the south of the Iberian peninsula highlights the pressing need to design and implement specific conservation plans for these species.

  5. Effects of climate change on three species of Cupido (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) with different biogeographic distribution in Andalusia, southern Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obregon, R.; Fernandez Haeger, J.; Jordano, D.

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the spatial distribution of rare or endangered species is of key importance to assess conservation status at different geographic scales and to develop conservation and recovery programs. In this paper we review and update the distribution of three species of Lycaenid butterflies in Andalusia (southern Spain): Cupido carswelli, C. lorquinii, and C. osiris. Cupido carswelli is endemic in south east Spain and is considered a vulnerable species in the Red Book of Invertebrates of Andalusia. Cupido lorquinii is an Iberian–Maghrebian endemism, found in the southern half of the Iberian peninsula. Cupido osiris, widely distributed in Europe and Central Asia, has its southern limit of distribution in Andalusia. We modeled the potential current distribution of these species in Andalusia, using Maxent. Their potential distribution was mainly conditioned by the presence of their host plants and, to a lesser extent, by climatic variables: rainfall during the warmest and coldest quarters of the year and annual mean temperature. AUC test values, sensitivity, and specificity for the three models were high, confirming the accuracy of the models and their high predictive values. We also modeled the potential future distributions of the three species under the climate change scenario A2a. Our results predict a significant reduction in the potential distribution for C. lorquinii —which has a wider distribution in Andalusia than the other two species— and for the more localized species, C. osiris and C. carswelli. This expected decline in the south of the Iberian peninsula highlights the pressing need to design and implement specific conservation plans for these species. (Author)

  6. Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

    2016-07-06

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

  7. Simplifying biochemical models with intermediate species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feliu, Elisenda; Wiuf, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    techniques, we study systematically the effects of intermediate, or transient, species in biochemical systems and provide a simple, yet rigorous mathematical classification of all models obtained from a core model by including intermediates. Main examples include enzymatic and post-translational modification...... systems, where intermediates often are considered insignificant and neglected in a model, or they are not included because we are unaware of their existence. All possible models obtained from the core model are classified into a finite number of classes. Each class is defined by a mathematically simple...... canonical model that characterizes crucial dynamical properties, such as mono- and multistationarity and stability of steady states, of all models in the class. We show that if the core model does not have conservation laws, then the introduction of intermediates does not change the steady...

  8. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

    2016-08-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  9. Distribution patterns of rare earth elements in various plant species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyttenbach, A.; Tobler, L.; Furrer, V. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-09-01

    The elements La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Yb and Lu have been determined in 6 different plant species by neutron activation analysis. When the concentrations of each species were normalized to Norway spruce, smooth curves were obtained which revealed systematic inter-species differences. (author) 3 figs., 4 refs.

  10. Distribution patterns of rare earth elements in various plant species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyttenbach, A.; Tobler, L.; Furrer, V.

    1997-01-01

    The elements La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Yb and Lu have been determined in 6 different plant species by neutron activation analysis. When the concentrations of each species were normalized to Norway spruce, smooth curves were obtained which revealed systematic inter-species differences. (author) 3 figs., 4 refs

  11. Current Knowledge of Leishmania Vectors in Mexico: How Geographic Distributions of Species Relate to Transmission Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Camila; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; Becker-Fauser, Ingeborg; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Peterson, A. Townsend; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor

    2011-01-01

    Leishmaniases are a group of vector-borne diseases with different clinical manifestations caused by parasites transmitted by sand fly vectors. In Mexico, the sand fly Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only vector proven to transmit the parasite Leishmania mexicana to humans, which causes leishmaniasis. Other vector species with potential medical importance have been obtained, but their geographic distributions and relation to transmission areas have never been assessed. We modeled the ecological niches of nine sand fly species and projected niches to estimate potential distributions by using known occurrences, environmental coverages, and the algorithms GARP and Maxent. All vector species were distributed in areas with known recurrent transmission, except for Lu. diabolica, which appeared to be related only to areas of occasional transmission in northern Mexico. The distribution of Lu. o. olmeca does not overlap with all reported cutaneous leishmaniasis cases, suggesting that Lu. cruciata and Lu. shannoni are likely also involved as primary vectors in those areas. Our study provides useful information of potential risk areas of leishmaniasis transmission in Mexico. PMID:22049037

  12. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  13. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

    2014-01-01

    Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

  14. Modelling the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Bobrowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing sustainable adaptation pathways under climate change conditions in mountain regions requires accurate predictions of treeline shifts and future distribution ranges of treeline species. Here, we model for the first time the potential distribution of Betula utilis, a principal Himalayan treeline species, to provide a basis for the analysis of future range shifts. Our target species Betula utilis is widespread at alpine treelines in the Himalayan mountains, the distribution range extends across the Himalayan mountain range. Our objective is to model the potential distribution of B. utilis in relation to current climate conditions. We generated a dataset of 590 occurrence records and used 24 variables for ecological niche modelling. We calibrated Generalized Linear Models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and evaluated model performance using threshold-independent (AUC, Area Under the Curve and threshold-dependent (TSS, True Skill Statistics characteristics as well as visual assessments of projected distribution maps. We found two temperature-related (Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Temperature Annual Range and three precipitation-related variables (Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter, Average Precipitation of March, April and May and Precipitation Seasonality to be useful for predicting the potential distribution of B. utilis. All models had high predictive power (AUC ≥ 0.98 and TSS ≥ 0.89. The projected suitable area in the Himalayan mountains varies considerably, with most extensive distribution in the western and central Himalayan region. A substantial difference between potential and real distribution in the eastern Himalaya points to decreasing competitiveness of B. utilis under more oceanic conditions in the eastern part of the mountain system. A comparison between the vegetation map of Schweinfurth (1957 and our current predictions suggests that B. utilis does not reach the upper elevational limit in

  15. Historical dynamics and current environmental effects explain the spatial distribution of species richness patterns of New World monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Vallejos-Garrido

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Why biodiversity is not uniformly distributed on the Earth is a major research question of biogeography. One of the most striking patterns of disparity in species distribution are the biodiversity hotspots, which generally do not fit with the distribution of relevant components of the Neotropical biota. In this study, we assess the proximal causes of the species-richness pattern of one of the most conspicuous groups of Neotropical mammals, the New World monkeys the Platyrrhini. We test two complementary hypotheses: (1 there is a historical source-sink dynamic (addressed using macroevolutionary and macroecological approaches; (2 the large number of species in the Amazon basin is due to the constraints imposed by environmental variables occurring outside this area. Methods We first characterize spatial patterns of species richness and biodiversity hotspots using a new, objective protocol based on probabilities. Then we evaluate the source-sink hypothesis using BioGeoBEARS analysis and nestedness analysis of species richness patterns. Complementarily, to measure how often different species pairs appear in the same sites, we used null models to estimate the checkerboard score index (C-score. Finally, we evaluate the relationship between several climatic variables and species richness through ordinary least squares (OLS and spatial autoregressive (SAR models, and the potential environmental constraints on the pattern. Results We found one significant cluster of high values for species richness in the Amazon basin. Most dispersal events occurred from the Amazonian subregion to other Neotropical areas. Temperature (T, discrepancy (BR, and NODF indexes show a significant nesting in the matrix ordered by species richness and available energy. The C-score observed was significantly smaller than the null expectation for all sites in the Neotropics where there are records of platyrrhine species. Ten climatic variables comprised the best

  16. Distribution Patterns of Ohio Stoneflies, with an Emphasis on Rare and Uncommon Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubbs, Scott A.; Pessimo, Massimo; DeWalt, R. Edward

    2013-01-01

    Presently, 102 stonefly species (Plecoptera) have been reported from Ohio. All 9 Nearctic families are represented. Over 90% of the fauna exhibit a combination of broad Nearctic-widespread, eastern Nearctic-widespread, Appalachian, and eastern Nearctic-unglaciated distributions. In contrast, only 2 species display a central Nearctic-Prairie distribution. Seven species of Perlidae are likely no longer present (Acroneuria evoluta Klapálek, A. perplexa Frison, Attaneuria ruralis (Hagen), and Neoperla mainensis Banks) or have experienced marked range reductions (Acroneuria abnormis (Newman), A. frisoni Stark and Brown, and A. filicis Frison). Another nearly 31% of the fauna (32 species) are rare, uncommon, or have highly-limited distributions within the state. Twelve of these species have Appalachian distributions, and an additional 8 have eastern Nearctic-unglaciated distributions. The distributional status for each of the 32 rare/uncommon species is discussed. PMID:24219390

  17. New distribution records for four mammal species, with notes on their taxonomy and ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.N. Bronner

    1990-09-01

    Full Text Available New distribution records for four small mammal species (Georychus capensis, Galerella pulverulenta, Rhinolophus swinnyi and Amblysomus julianae are presented, along with relevant notes on the taxonomy, karyology and ecology of these species.

  18. Species composition, abundance and distribution of hydromedusae from Dharamtar estuarine system, adjoining Bombay Harbour

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Santhakumari, V.; Tiwari, L.R.; Nair, V.R.

    Species composition, abundance and distribution of hydromedusae from Dharamtar estuarine system, adjoining Bombay Harbour, Maharashtra, India were investigated during 1984-1985. Twenty six species belonging to 19 genera were obtained from this area...

  19. Relating biomarkers to whole-organism effects using species sensitivity distributions : A pilot study for marine species exposed to oil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, M.G.D.; Bechmann, R.K.; Hendriks, A.J.; Skadsheim, A.; Larsen, B.K.; Baussant, T.; Bamber, S.; Sannei, S.

    2009-01-01

    Biomarkers are widely used to measure environmental impacts on marine species. For many biomarkers, it is not clear how the signal levels relate to effects on the whole organism. This paper shows how species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) can be applied to evaluate multiple biomarker responses in

  20. The Analysis of Tree Species Distribution Information Extraction and Landscape Pattern Based on Remote Sensing Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zeng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The forest ecosystem is the largest land vegetation type, which plays the role of unreplacement with its unique value. And in the landscape scale, the research on forest landscape pattern has become the current hot spot, wherein the study of forest canopy structure is very important. They determines the process and the strength of forests energy flow, which influences the adjustments of ecosystem for climate and species diversity to some extent. The extraction of influencing factors of canopy structure and the analysis of the vegetation distribution pattern are especially important. To solve the problems, remote sensing technology, which is superior to other technical means because of its fine timeliness and large-scale monitoring, is applied to the study. Taking Lingkong Mountain as the study area, the paper uses the remote sensing image to analyze the forest distribution pattern and obtains the spatial characteristics of canopy structure distribution, and DEM data are as the basic data to extract the influencing factors of canopy structure. In this paper, pattern of trees distribution is further analyzed by using terrain parameters, spatial analysis tools and surface processes quantitative simulation. The Hydrological Analysis tool is used to build distributed hydrological model, and corresponding algorithm is applied to determine surface water flow path, rivers network and basin boundary. Results show that forest vegetation distribution of dominant tree species present plaque on the landscape scale and their distribution have spatial heterogeneity which is related to terrain factors closely. After the overlay analysis of aspect, slope and forest distribution pattern respectively, the most suitable area for stand growth and the better living condition are obtained.

  1. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-02-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading species (Barred Owl, Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern Spotted Owl, Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000-km study area over a 22-year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multi-season analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyzed survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multi-season occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling, allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We found that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale, and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern Spotted Owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species, both through its immediate effects on local extinction and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as

  2. Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

    2018-01-01

    The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  3. Ring distributions leading to species formation: a global topographic analysis of geographic barriers associated with ring species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monahan William B

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the mid 20th century, Ernst Mayr and Theodosius Dobzhansky championed the significance of circular overlaps or ring species as the perfect demonstration of speciation, yet in the over 50 years since, only a handful of such taxa are known. We developed a topographic model to evaluate whether the geographic barriers that favor processes leading to ring species are common or rare, and to predict where other candidate ring barriers might be found. Results Of the 952,147 geographic barriers identified on the planet, only about 1% are topographically similar to barriers associated with known ring taxa, with most of the likely candidates occurring in under-studied parts of the world (for example, marine environments, tropical latitudes. Predicted barriers separate into two distinct categories: (i single cohesive barriers (2, associated with taxa that differentiate at smaller spatial scales (salamander: Ensatina eschscholtzii; tree: Acacia karroo; and (ii composite barriers - formed by groups of barriers (each 184,000 to 1.7 million km2 in close geographic proximity (totaling 1.9 to 2.3 million km2 - associated with taxa that differentiate at larger spatial scales (birds: Phylloscopus trochiloides and Larus (sp. argentatus and fuscus. When evaluated globally, we find a large number of cohesive barriers that are topographically similar to those associated with known ring taxa. Yet, compared to cohesive barriers, an order of magnitude fewer composite barriers are similar to those that favor ring divergence in species with higher dispersal. Conclusions While these findings confirm that the topographic conditions that favor evolutionary processes leading to ring speciation are, in fact, rare, they also suggest that many understudied natural systems could provide valuable demonstrations of continuous divergence towards the formation of new species. Distinct advantages of the model are that it (i requires no a priori information on the

  4. Ring distributions leading to species formation: a global topographic analysis of geographic barriers associated with ring species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, William B; Pereira, Ricardo J; Wake, David B

    2012-03-12

    In the mid 20th century, Ernst Mayr and Theodosius Dobzhansky championed the significance of circular overlaps or ring species as the perfect demonstration of speciation, yet in the over 50 years since, only a handful of such taxa are known. We developed a topographic model to evaluate whether the geographic barriers that favor processes leading to ring species are common or rare, and to predict where other candidate ring barriers might be found. Of the 952,147 geographic barriers identified on the planet, only about 1% are topographically similar to barriers associated with known ring taxa, with most of the likely candidates occurring in under-studied parts of the world (for example, marine environments, tropical latitudes). Predicted barriers separate into two distinct categories: (i) single cohesive barriers (barriers - formed by groups of barriers (each 184,000 to 1.7 million km2) in close geographic proximity (totaling 1.9 to 2.3 million km2) - associated with taxa that differentiate at larger spatial scales (birds: Phylloscopus trochiloides and Larus (sp. argentatus and fuscus)). When evaluated globally, we find a large number of cohesive barriers that are topographically similar to those associated with known ring taxa. Yet, compared to cohesive barriers, an order of magnitude fewer composite barriers are similar to those that favor ring divergence in species with higher dispersal. While these findings confirm that the topographic conditions that favor evolutionary processes leading to ring speciation are, in fact, rare, they also suggest that many understudied natural systems could provide valuable demonstrations of continuous divergence towards the formation of new species. Distinct advantages of the model are that it (i) requires no a priori information on the relative importance of features that define barriers, (ii) can be replicated using any kind of continuously distributed environmental variable, and (iii) generates spatially explicit hypotheses of

  5. Preferred temperature and thermal breadth of birds wintering in peninsular Spain: the limited effect of temperature on species distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M. Carrascal

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. The availability of environmental energy, as measured by temperature, is expected to limit the abundance and distribution of endotherms wintering at temperate latitudes. A prediction of this hypothesis is that birds should attain their highest abundances in warmer areas. However, there may be a spatial mismatch between species preferred habitats and species preferred temperatures, so some species might end-up wintering in sub-optimal thermal environments. Methods. We model the influence of minimum winter temperature on the relative abundance of 106 terrestrial bird species wintering in peninsular Spain, at 10 ×10 km2 resolution, using 95%-quantile regressions. We analyze general trends across species on the shape of the response curves, the environmental preferred temperature (at which the species abundance is maximized, the mean temperature in the area of distribution and the thermal breadth (area under the abundance-temperature curve. Results. Temperature explains a low proportion of variation in abundance. The most significant effect is on limiting the maximum potential abundance of species. Considering this upper-limit response, there is a large interspecific variability on the thermal preferences and specialization of species. Overall, there is a preponderance of positive relationships between species abundance and temperature; on average, species attain their maximum abundances in areas 1.9 °C warmer than the average temperature available in peninsular Spain. The mean temperature in the area of distribution is lower than the thermal preferences of the species. Discussion. Many species prefer the warmest areas to overwinter, which suggests that temperature imposes important restrictions to birds wintering in the Iberian Peninsula. However, one third of species overwinter in locations colder than their thermal preferences, probably reflecting the interaction between habitat and thermal requirements. There is a high inter

  6. New record of the sympatric distribution of two Asian species of the horseshoe crab

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chatterji, A.

    distribution of two Asian species of the horses... http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/sep25/articles14.htm 1 of 3 2/11/05 9:47 AM New record of the sympatric distribution of two Asian species of the horseshoe crab The geographical distribution of four extant species...... http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/sep25/articles14.htm 2 of 3 2/11/05 9:47 AM This species was found breeding actively on relatively clean and sandy beaches. The other species (C. rotundicauda) was not reported in these areas.However, during the survey...

  7. Endangered Fish Species in Kansas: Historic vs Contemporary Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods Kansas state has more freshwater fish species than other states in the west and northern US. Based on recent count, more than 140 fishes have been documented in Kansas rivers. And at least five are categorized as endangered species in Kansas (and thre...

  8. Iodine uptake and distribution in horticultural and fruit tree species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Caffagni

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Iodine is an essential microelement for humans and iodine deficiency disorder (IDD is one of the most widespread nutrient-deficiency diseases in the world. Iodine biofortification of plants provides an attractive opportunity to increase iodine intake in humans and to prevent and control IDD. This study was conducted to investigate the iodine uptake and accumulation in edible portion of two fruit trees: plum and nectarine, and two horticultural crops: tomato and potato. Two type of iodine treatments (soil and foliar spray application, and, for fresh market tomato, two production systems (open field and greenhouse hydroponic culture were tested. The distribution of iodine in potato stem and leaves, and in plum tree fruits, leaves, and branches was investigated. Iodine content of potato tubers after postharvest storage and processing (cooking, and iodine content of nectarine fruits after postharvest storage and processing (peeling were also determined. Differences in iodine accumulation were observed among the four crops, between applications, and between production systems. In open field, the maximum iodine content ranged from 9.5 and 14.3 μg 100 g−1 for plum and nectarine fruit, to 89.4 and 144.0 μg 100 g−1 for potato tuber and tomato fruit, respectively. These results showed that nectarine and plum tree accumulated significantly lower amounts of iodine in their edible tissues, in comparison with potato and tomato. The experiments also indicated hydroponic culture as the most efficient system for iodine uptake in tomato, since its fresh fruits accumulated up to 2423 μg 100 g−1 of iodine. Iodine was stored mainly in the leaves, in all species investigated. Only a small portion of iodine was moved to plum tree branches and fruits, and to potato stems and tubers. No differences in iodine content after fruit peeling was observed. A significant increase in iodine content of potato was observed after baking, whereas a significant decrease was

  9. Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Leon; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Bos, Merijn; de Groot, G Arjen; Kleijn, David; Potts, Simon G; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

    2015-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and

  10. Tracking the evolutionary history of Cortinarius species in section Calochroi, with transoceanic disjunct distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnica, Sigisfredo; Spahn, Philipp; Oertel, Bernhard; Ammirati, Joseph; Oberwinkler, Franz

    2011-07-19

    Cortinarius species in section Calochroi display local, clinal and circumboreal patterns of distribution across the Northern Hemisphere where these ectomycorrhizal fungi occur with host trees throughout their geographical range within a continent, or have disjunct intercontinental distributions, the origins of which are not understood. We inferred evolutionary histories of four species, 1) C. arcuatorum, 2) C. aureofulvus, 3) C. elegantior and 4) C. napus, from populations distributed throughout the Old World, and portions of the New World (Central- and North America) based on genetic variation of 154 haplotype internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences from 83 population samples. By describing the population structure of these species across their geographical distribution, we attempt to identify their historical migration and patterns of diversification. Models of population structure from nested clade, demographic and coalescent-based analyses revealed genetically differentiated and geographically structured haplotypes in C. arcuatorum and C. elegantior, while C. aureofulvus showed considerably less population structure and C. napus lacked sufficient genetic differentiation to resolve any population structure. Disjunct populations within C. arcuatorum, C. aureofulvus and C. elegantior show little or no morphological differentiation, whereas in C. napus there is a high level of homoplasy and phenotypic plasticity for veil and lamellae colour. The ITS sequences of the type specimens of C. albobrunnoides and C. albobrunnoides var. violaceovelatus were identical to one another and are treated as one species with a wider range of geographic distribution under C. napus. Our results indicate that each of the Calochroi species has undergone a relatively independent evolutionary history, hypothesised as follows: 1) a widely distributed ancestral population of C. arcuatorum diverged into distinctive sympatric populations in the New World; 2) two divergent lineages in C

  11. Tracking the evolutionary history of Cortinarius species in section Calochroi, with transoceanic disjunct distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ammirati Joseph

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cortinarius species in section Calochroi display local, clinal and circumboreal patterns of distribution across the Northern Hemisphere where these ectomycorrhizal fungi occur with host trees throughout their geographical range within a continent, or have disjunct intercontinental distributions, the origins of which are not understood. We inferred evolutionary histories of four species, 1 C. arcuatorum, 2 C. aureofulvus, 3 C. elegantior and 4 C. napus, from populations distributed throughout the Old World, and portions of the New World (Central- and North America based on genetic variation of 154 haplotype internal transcribed spacer (ITS sequences from 83 population samples. By describing the population structure of these species across their geographical distribution, we attempt to identify their historical migration and patterns of diversification. Results Models of population structure from nested clade, demographic and coalescent-based analyses revealed genetically differentiated and geographically structured haplotypes in C. arcuatorum and C. elegantior, while C. aureofulvus showed considerably less population structure and C. napus lacked sufficient genetic differentiation to resolve any population structure. Disjunct populations within C. arcuatorum, C. aureofulvus and C. elegantior show little or no morphological differentiation, whereas in C. napus there is a high level of homoplasy and phenotypic plasticity for veil and lamellae colour. The ITS sequences of the type specimens of C. albobrunnoides and C. albobrunnoides var. violaceovelatus were identical to one another and are treated as one species with a wider range of geographic distribution under C. napus. Conclusions Our results indicate that each of the Calochroi species has undergone a relatively independent evolutionary history, hypothesised as follows: 1 a widely distributed ancestral population of C. arcuatorum diverged into distinctive sympatric

  12. Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marshall, L.; Carvalheiro, L.G.; Aguirre-Gutierrez, J.; Bos, M.; Groot, de G.A.; Kleijn, D.; Potts, S.G.; Reemer, M.; Roberts, S.P.M.; Scheper, J.A.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is

  13. Two new species of Ateuchus with remarks on ecology, distributions, and evolutionary relationships (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moctezuma, Victor; Sánchez-Huerta, José Luis; Halffter, Gonzalo

    2018-01-01

    Two new species of the genus Ateuchus Weber are described from the region of Los Chimalapas, Oaxaca, Mexico: A. benitojuarezi sp. n. and A. colossus sp. n. A diagnosis for distinguishing these new species from the other species of this genus in North America is included. This paper is illustrated with pictures of the dorsal habitus and the male genitalia of the new species. The evolutionary relationships of the species are discussed, as well as their distribution and ecology. It is considered that the species of the genus Ateuchus present in North and Central America correspond to the Typical Neotropical and Mountain Mesoamerican distribution patterns.

  14. A spatial pattern analysis of the halophytic species distribution in an arid coastal environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badreldin, Nasem; Uria-Diez, J; Mateu, J; Youssef, Ali; Stal, Cornelis; El-Bana, Magdy; Magdy, Ahmed; Goossens, Rudi

    2015-05-01

    Obtaining information about the spatial distribution of desert plants is considered as a serious challenge for ecologists and environmental modeling due to the required intensive field work and infrastructures in harsh and remote arid environments. A new method was applied for assessing the spatial distribution of the halophytic species (HS) in an arid coastal environment. This method was based on the object-based image analysis for a high-resolution Google Earth satellite image. The integration of the image processing techniques and field work provided accurate information about the spatial distribution of HS. The extracted objects were based on assumptions that explained the plant-pixel relationship. Three different types of digital image processing techniques were implemented and validated to obtain an accurate HS spatial distribution. A total of 2703 individuals of the HS community were found in the case study, and approximately 82% were located above an elevation of 2 m. The micro-topography exhibited a significant negative relationship with pH and EC (r = -0.79 and -0.81, respectively, p < 0.001). The spatial structure was modeled using stochastic point processes, in particular a hybrid family of Gibbs processes. A new model is proposed that uses a hard-core structure at very short distances, together with a cluster structure in short-to-medium distances and a Poisson structure for larger distances. This model was found to fit the data perfectly well.

  15. Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

  16. Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

  17. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles Brandon; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern

  18. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  19. An updated understanding of Texas bumble bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae species presence and potential distributions in Texas, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica L. Beckham

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Texas is the second largest state in the United States of America, and the largest state in the contiguous USA at nearly 700,000 sq. km. Several Texas bumble bee species have shown evidence of declines in portions of their continental ranges, and conservation initiatives targeting these species will be most effective if species distributions are well established. To date, statewide bumble bee distributions for Texas have been inferred primarily from specimen records housed in natural history collections. To improve upon these maps, and help inform conservation decisions, this research aimed to (1 update existing Texas bumble bee presence databases to include recent (2007–2016 data from citizen science repositories and targeted field studies, (2 model statewide species distributions of the most common bumble bee species in Texas using MaxEnt, and (3 identify conservation target areas for the state that are most likely to contain habitat suitable for multiple declining species. The resulting Texas bumble bee database is comprised of 3,580 records, to include previously compiled museum records dating from 1897, recent field survey data, and vetted records from citizen science repositories. These data yielded an updated state species list that includes 11 species, as well as species distribution models (SDMs for the most common Texas bumble bee species, including two that have shown evidence of range-wide declines: B. fraternus (Smith, 1854 and B. pensylvanicus (DeGeer, 1773. Based on analyses of these models, we have identified conservation priority areas within the Texas Cross Timbers, Texas Blackland Prairies, and East Central Texas Plains ecoregions where suitable habitat for both B. fraternus and B. pensylvanicus are highly likely to co-occur.

  20. hookworm species distribution around asendabo town jimma zone

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DigLab

    acknowledged cause of anemia as a result of intestinal blood loss. The aim of this study was to ... KEY WORDS: Hookworm species, anemia, helminth, Asendabo, Jimma, Ethiopia. ... nematode parasites Necator americanus and Ancylostoma.

  1. Temperature affects species distribution in symbiotic populations of Vibrio spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiguchi, M K

    2000-08-01

    The genus Sepiola (Cephalopoda: Sepiolidae) contains 10 known species that occur in the Mediterranean Sea today. All Sepiola species have a light organ that contains at least one of two species of luminous bacteria, Vibrio fischeri and Vibrio logei. The two Vibrio species coexist in at least four Sepiola species (S. affinis, S. intermedia, S. ligulata, and S. robusta), and their concentrations in the light organ depend on changes in certain abiotic factors, including temperature. Strains of V. fischeri grew faster in vitro and in Sepiola juveniles when they were incubated at 26 degrees C. In contrast, strains of V. logei grew faster at 18 degrees C in culture and in Sepiola juveniles. When aposymbiotic S. affinis or S. ligulata juveniles were inoculated with one Vibrio species, all strains of V. fischeri and V. logei were capable of infecting both squid species at the optimum growth temperatures, regardless of the squid host from which the bacteria were initially isolated. However, when two different strains of V. fischeri and V. logei were placed in direct competition with each other at either 18 or 26 degrees C, strains of V. fischeri were present in sepiolid light organs in greater concentrations at 26 degrees C, whereas strains of V. logei were present in greater concentrations at 18 degrees C. In addition to the competition experiments, the ratios of the two bacterial species in adult Sepiola specimens caught throughout the season at various depths differed, and these differences were correlated with the temperature in the surrounding environment. My findings contribute additional data concerning the ecological and environmental factors that affect host-symbiont recognition and may provide insight into the evolution of animal-bacterium specificity.

  2. Protectiveness of Species Sensitivity Distribution Hazard Concentrations for Acute Toxicity Used in Endangered Species Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    A primary objective of threatened and endangered species conservation is to ensure that chemical contaminants and other stressors do not adversely affect listed species. Assessments of the ecological risks of chemical exposures to listed species often rely on the use of surrogate...

  3. Distribution and content of ellagitannins in Finnish plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Johanna; Koskinen, Piia; Salminen, Juha-Pekka

    2015-08-01

    The results of a screening study, in which a total of 82 Finnish plant species were studied for their ellagitannin composition and content, are presented. The total ellagitannin content was determined by HPLC-DAD, the detected ellagitannins were further characterized by HPLC-ESI-QTOF-MS and divided into four structurally different sub-groups. Thirty plant species were found to contain ellagitannins and the ellagitannin content in the crude extracts varied from few mgg(-1) to over a hundred mgg(-1). Plant families that were rich in ellagitannins (>90mgg(-1) of the crude extract) were Onagraceae, Lyhtraceae, Geraniaceae, Elaeagnaceae, Fagaceae and some species from Rosaceae. Plant species that contained moderate amounts of ellagitannins (31-89mgg(-1) of the crude extract) were representatives of the family Rosaceae. Plant species that contained low amounts of ellagitannins (1-30mgg(-1) of the crude extract) were representatives of the families Betulaceae and Myricaceae. The specific ellagitannin composition of the species allowed their chemotaxonomic classification and the comparison between the older Cronquist's classification and the nowadays preferred Angiosperm Phylogeny Group classification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The influence of electrohydrodynamic flow on the distribution of chemical species in positive corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontiga, Francisco; Yanallah, Khelifa; Bouazza, R.; Chen, Junhong

    2015-09-01

    A numerical simulation of positive corona discharge in air, including the effect of electrohydrodynamic (EHD) motion of the gas, has been carried out. Air flow is assumed to be confined between two parallel plates, and corona discharge is produced around a thin wire, midway between the plates. Therefore, fluid dynamics equations, including electrical forces, have been solved together with the continuity equation of each neutral species. The plasma chemical model included 24 chemical reactions and ten neutral species, in addition to electrons and positive ions. The results of the simulation have shown that the influence of EHD flow on the spatial distributions of the species is quite different depending on the species. Hence, reactive species like atomic oxygen and atomic nitrogen are confined to the vicinity of the wire, and they are weakly affected by the EHD gas motion. In contrast, nitrogen oxides and ozone are efficiently dragged outside the active region of the corona discharge by the EHD flow. This work was supported by the Spanish Government Agency ``Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación'' under Contract No. FIS2011-25161.

  5. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  6. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine N Meynard

    Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

  7. Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

    2018-01-01

    There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

  8. A Distributional Representation Model For Collaborative Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Junlin, Zhang; Heng, Cai; Tongwen, Huang; Huiping, Xue

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a very concise deep learning approach for collaborative filtering that jointly models distributional representation for users and items. The proposed framework obtains better performance when compared against current state-of-art algorithms and that made the distributional representation model a promising direction for further research in the collaborative filtering.

  9. Rapid Prototyping of Formally Modelled Distributed Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Buchs, Didier; Buffo, Mathieu; Titsworth, Frances M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents various kinds of prototypes, used in the prototyping of formally modelled distributed systems. It presents the notions of prototyping techniques and prototype evolution, and shows how to relate them to the software life-cycle. It is illustrated through the use of the formal modelling language for distributed systems CO-OPN/2.

  10. Factors influencing non-native tree species distribution in urban landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species are presumed to be pervasive across the urban landscape. Yet, we actually know very little about their actual distribution. For this study, vegetation plot data from Syracuse, NY and Baltimore, MD were used to examine non-native tree species distribution in urban landscapes. Data were collected from remnant and emergent forest patches on upland sites...

  11. Ecological relationships of meso-scale distribution in 25 neotropical vertebrate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalski, Lincoln José; Norris, Darren; de Oliveira, Tadeu Gomes; Michalski, Fernanda

    2015-01-01

    Vertebrates are a vital ecological component of Amazon forest biodiversity. Although vertebrates are a functionally important part of various ecosystem services they continue to be threatened by anthropogenic impacts throughout the Amazon. Here we use a standardized, regularly spaced arrangement of camera traps within 25km2 to provide a baseline assessment of vertebrate species diversity in a sustainable use protected area in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. We examined seasonal differences in the per species encounter rates (number of photos per camera trap and number of cameras with photos). Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then used to examine the influence of five variables (altitude, canopy cover, basal area, distance to nearest river and distance to nearest large river) on the number of photos per species and on functional groups. GLMs were also used to examine the relationships between large predators [Jaguar (Panthera onca) and Puma (Puma concolor)] and their prey. A total of 649 independent photos of 25 species were obtained from 1,800 camera trap days (900 each during wet and dry seasons). Only ungulates and rodents showed significant seasonal differences in the number of photos per camera. The number of photos differed between seasons for only three species (Mazama americana, Dasyprocta leporina and Myoprocta acouchy) all of which were photographed more (3 to 10 fold increase) during the wet season. Mazama americana was the only species where a significant difference was found in occupancy, with more photos in more cameras during the wet season. For most groups and species variation in the number of photos per camera was only explained weakly by the GLMs (deviance explained ranging from 10.3 to 54.4%). Terrestrial birds (Crax alector, Psophia crepitans and Tinamus major) and rodents (Cuniculus paca, Dasyprocta leporina and M. acouchy) were the notable exceptions, with our GLMs significantly explaining variation in the distribution of all species

  12. Ecological relationships of meso-scale distribution in 25 neotropical vertebrate species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lincoln José Michalski

    Full Text Available Vertebrates are a vital ecological component of Amazon forest biodiversity. Although vertebrates are a functionally important part of various ecosystem services they continue to be threatened by anthropogenic impacts throughout the Amazon. Here we use a standardized, regularly spaced arrangement of camera traps within 25km2 to provide a baseline assessment of vertebrate species diversity in a sustainable use protected area in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. We examined seasonal differences in the per species encounter rates (number of photos per camera trap and number of cameras with photos. Generalized linear models (GLMs were then used to examine the influence of five variables (altitude, canopy cover, basal area, distance to nearest river and distance to nearest large river on the number of photos per species and on functional groups. GLMs were also used to examine the relationships between large predators [Jaguar (Panthera onca and Puma (Puma concolor] and their prey. A total of 649 independent photos of 25 species were obtained from 1,800 camera trap days (900 each during wet and dry seasons. Only ungulates and rodents showed significant seasonal differences in the number of photos per camera. The number of photos differed between seasons for only three species (Mazama americana, Dasyprocta leporina and Myoprocta acouchy all of which were photographed more (3 to 10 fold increase during the wet season. Mazama americana was the only species where a significant difference was found in occupancy, with more photos in more cameras during the wet season. For most groups and species variation in the number of photos per camera was only explained weakly by the GLMs (deviance explained ranging from 10.3 to 54.4%. Terrestrial birds (Crax alector, Psophia crepitans and Tinamus major and rodents (Cuniculus paca, Dasyprocta leporina and M. acouchy were the notable exceptions, with our GLMs significantly explaining variation in the distribution of all

  13. Species abundance distributions : moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGill, Brian J.; Etienne, Rampal S.; Gray, John S.; Alonso, David; Anderson, Marti J.; Benecha, Habtamu Kassa; Dornelas, Maria; Enquist, Brian J.; Green, Jessica L.; He, Fangliang; Hurlbert, Allen H.; Magurran, Anne E.; Marquet, Pablo A.; Maurer, Brian A.; Ostling, Annette; Soykan, Candan U.; Ugland, Karl I.; White, Ethan P.

    2007-01-01

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws - every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

  14. Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGill, B.J.; Etienne, R.S.; Gray, J.S.; Alonso, D.; Anderson, M.J.; Benecha, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws ¿ every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

  15. Eco-taxonomic distribution of plant species around motor mechanic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A survey of plant species and their families present in auto mechanic workshops in Benin City and Asaba was carried out. The frequency of occurrence of plants in the sites visited was used to determine prevalence. Peperomia pellucida occurred most in all the sites visited with a 55% frequency. The high rate of occurrence ...

  16. Alien fish species in upper Sakarya River and their distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, the fact that the flood plains have been reclaimed, excessive hunting, destruction of the ecologic balance and invasion of the area by the alien fish species threatens the fish stocks in Sakarya River. In this study, we aimed to determine the dispersion area of Carassius gibelio (Bloch, 1782), Oreochromis niloticus ...

  17. Distribution and diversity of mangrove species in Gokana Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Plots 1 and 2 were dominated by Rhizophora racemosa (62.07% and 41.17% respectively). Plots 3 were dominated by R. mangle (4 1.67%) while Plots 4 had 26.56% of Acrostichum aureum and 26.56% of Phoenix reclinata. The overlapping mangrove species occurrence (Laguncularia racemosa and R. mangle) at the ...

  18. fish species and size distribution and abundance in different areas

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Larger individuals dominated in deep waters recording a mode at 45.5 cm TL. ... as a result of trophic interactions with introduced species ... sea level. The climate is equatorial with two wet seasons, one between October and. December, the ...

  19. The distribution, composition and abundance of fish species in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fish composition and abundance of two Gold mine reservoir were investigated between May, 2008 and May, 2009. Seven fish families comprising of twelve species of fish were caught during the period of study. The families of fish caught included Anabantidae, Channidae, Clariidae, Cichlidae, Melanopluridae, Mormyridae ...

  20. The definition of species richness used by species sensitivity distributions approximates observed effects of salinity on stream macroinvertebrates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kefford, Ben J., E-mail: ben.kefford@uts.edu.a [School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, Victoria (Australia); Centre for Environmental Sustainability, Department of Environmental Science, University of Technology Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Marchant, Richard [Department of Entomology, Museum of Victoria, Victoria (Australia); Schaefer, Ralf B. [School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, Victoria (Australia); Metzeling, Leon [EPA Victoria, Macleod, Victoria (Australia); Dunlop, Jason E. [Department of Environment and Resource Management, Indooroopilly, Queensland (Australia); National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland, Coopers Plains, Queensland (Australia); Choy, Satish C. [Department of Environment and Resource Management, Indooroopilly, Queensland (Australia); Goonan, Peter [South Australia Environment Protection Authority, Adelaide, South Australia (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    The risk of chemicals for ecological communities is often forecast with species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) which are used to predict the concentration which will protect p% of species (PC{sub p} value). However, at the PC{sub p} value, species richness in nature would not necessary be p% less than at uncontaminated sites. The definition of species richness inherent to SSDs (contaminant category richness) contrasts with species richness typically measured in most field studies (point richness). We determine, for salinity in eastern Australia, whether these definitions of stream macroinvertebrate species richness are commensurable. There were strong relationships (r{sup 2} {>=} 0.87) between mean point species, family and Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Plecoptera species richness and their respective contamination category richness. Despite differences in the definition of richness used by SSDs and field biomonitoring, their results in terms of relative species loss from salinity in south-east Australia are similar. We conclude that in our system both definitions are commensurable. - Definitions of species richness inherit in SSDs and biomonitoring are for salinity in south-east Australia commensurable.

  1. The definition of species richness used by species sensitivity distributions approximates observed effects of salinity on stream macroinvertebrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kefford, Ben J.; Marchant, Richard; Schaefer, Ralf B.; Metzeling, Leon; Dunlop, Jason E.; Choy, Satish C.; Goonan, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The risk of chemicals for ecological communities is often forecast with species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) which are used to predict the concentration which will protect p% of species (PC p value). However, at the PC p value, species richness in nature would not necessary be p% less than at uncontaminated sites. The definition of species richness inherent to SSDs (contaminant category richness) contrasts with species richness typically measured in most field studies (point richness). We determine, for salinity in eastern Australia, whether these definitions of stream macroinvertebrate species richness are commensurable. There were strong relationships (r 2 ≥ 0.87) between mean point species, family and Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Plecoptera species richness and their respective contamination category richness. Despite differences in the definition of richness used by SSDs and field biomonitoring, their results in terms of relative species loss from salinity in south-east Australia are similar. We conclude that in our system both definitions are commensurable. - Definitions of species richness inherit in SSDs and biomonitoring are for salinity in south-east Australia commensurable.

  2. Aquatic dance flies (Diptera, Empididae, Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae of Greece: species richness, distribution and description of five new species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Ivković

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available All records of aquatic dance flies (37 species in subfamily Clinocerinae and 10 species in subfamily Hemerodromiinae from the territory of Greece are summarized, including previously unpublished data and data on five newly described species (Chelifera horvati Ivković & Sinclair, sp. n., Wiedemannia iphigeniae Ivković & Sinclair, sp. n., W. ljerkae Ivković & Sinclair, sp. n., W. nebulosa Ivković & Sinclair, sp. n. and W. pseudoberthelemyi Ivković & Sinclair, sp. n.. The new species are described and illustrated, the male terminalia of Clinocera megalatlantica (Vaillant are illustrated and the distributions of all species within Greece are listed. The aquatic Empididae fauna of Greece consists of 47 species, with the following described species reported for the first time: Chelifera angusta Collin, Hemerodromia melangyna Collin, Clinocera megalatlantica, Kowarzia plectrum (Mik, Phaeobalia dimidiata (Loew, W. (Chamaedipsia beckeri (Mik, W. (Philolutra angelieri Vaillant and W. (P. chvali Joost. A key to species of aquatic Empididae of Greece is provided for the first time. Information related to the European Ecoregions in which species were found is given. Compared to the other studied countries in the Balkans, the Greek species assemblage is most similar to that of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

  3. Business Models and Regulation | Distributed Generation Interconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collaborative | NREL Business Models and Regulation Business Models and Regulation Subscribe to new business models and approaches. The growing role of distributed resources in the electricity system is leading to a shift in business models and regulation for electric utilities. These

  4. Decapod larvae distribution and species composition off the southern Portuguese coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pochelon, Patricia N.; Pires, Rita F. T.; Dubert, Jesús; Nolasco, Rita; Santos, A. Miguel P.; Queiroga, Henrique; dos Santos, Antonina

    2017-12-01

    For decapod crustaceans, the larval phase is the main responsible for dispersal, given the direct emission from adult habitats into the water column. Circulation patterns and behavioural mechanisms control the dispersal distance and connectivity between different areas. Information on larval distribution and abundance is required to predict the size and location of breeding populations, and correctly manage marine resources. Spatial distribution and abundance data of decapod larvae, and environmental parameters were assessed in winter surveys off the southern Portuguese coast. To better understand the oceanic structures driving larval distribution patterns, in situ physical parameters were measured and a hydrodynamical model used. Inter-annual, cross-shore and alongshore differences on decapod larvae distribution were found. Brachyuran crabs dominated the samples and similar taxa composition was observed in the most dynamic areas. Coastal taxa dominated the nearshore survey and were almost absent in the more offshore one, that registered much lower abundances. An upwelling front allowed a clear cross-shore species separation, also evident in the abundance values and number of taxa. Hydrodynamical conditions and adult habitats were the main factors explaining the observed patterns. Important missing information to understand the distribution patterns of decapod larval communities and the mechanisms behind them is given for the region.

  5. The Quercus feeding Stigmella species of the West Palaearctic: new species, key and distribution (Lepidoptera: Nepticulidae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieukerken, van E.J.; Johansson, R.

    2003-01-01

    The species of the Stigmella ruficapitella group occurring in the Western Palaearctic and feeding on Quercus are reviewed. We recognise 19 species, five of which are described as new: Stigmella fasciata sp. n. on Quercus pubescens from Slovenia, Croatia, Greece and Turkey, S. cocciferae sp. n. on Q.

  6. Distribution of particulate carbohydrate species in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Khodse, V.B.; Bhosle, N.B.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.

    and the C/N ratios. Carbohydrate production by micro-organisms is influenced by phase of growth, nutrient status, phytoplankton species composition and/or bacte- rial activity (Morris 1981; D’Souza and Bhosle 2001). Phytoplankton composition varied spatially... Neutral monosaccharides from a hypersaline tropical environment: Applications to the characterization of modern and ancient ecosystems; Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 57 3063–3071. Morris I 1981 Photosynthetic products, physiological state and phytoplankton...

  7. Distribution patterns of invasive alien species in Alabama, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongwen Chen

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Invasive alien species (IAS cause environmental and economical problems. How to effectively manage all IAS at a large area is a challenge.Hypotheses about IAS (such as the “human activity” hypothesis, the “biotic acceptance” and the “biotic resistance” have been proposedfrom numerous studies. Here the state of Alabama in USA, widely occupied by IAS, is used as a case study for characterizing the emergentpatterns of IAS. The results indicate that most IAS are located in metropolitan areas and in the Black Belt area which is a historical intensiveland use area. There are positive relationships between the richness of IAS and the change of human population, the species richness and thenumber of endangered species, as well as the total road length and farmland area across Alabama. This study partially supports the abovethree hypotheses and provides a general pattern of local IAS. Based on possible processes related with IAS, some implications forstrategically managing local IAS are discussed.

  8. Separating the effects of environment and space on tree species distribution: from population to community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Guojun; Stralberg, Diana; Gong, Guiquan; Huang, Zhongliang; Ye, Wanhui; Wu, Linfang

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying the relative contributions of environmental conditions and spatial factors to species distribution can help improve our understanding of the processes that drive diversity patterns. In this study, based on tree inventory, topography and soil data from a 20-ha stem-mapped permanent forest plot in Guangdong Province, China, we evaluated the influence of different ecological processes at different spatial scales using canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) at the community level and multiple linear regression at the species level. At the community level, the proportion of explained variation in species distribution increased with grid-cell sizes, primarily due to a monotonic increase in the explanatory power of environmental variables. At the species level, neither environmental nor spatial factors were important determinants of overstory species' distributions at small cell sizes. However, purely spatial variables explained most of the variation in the distributions of understory species at fine and intermediate cell sizes. Midstory species showed patterns that were intermediate between those of overstory and understory species. At the 20-m cell size, the influence of spatial factors was stronger for more dispersal-limited species, suggesting that much of the spatial structuring in this community can be explained by dispersal limitation. Comparing environmental factors, soil variables had higher explanatory power than did topography for species distribution. However, both topographic and edaphic variables were highly spatial structured. Our results suggested that dispersal limitation has an important influence on fine-intermediate scale (from several to tens of meters) species distribution, while environmental variability facilitates species distribution at intermediate (from ten to tens of meters) and broad (from tens to hundreds of meters) scales.

  9. Spatial distribution and habitat characterisation of mosquito species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Infections with mosquito-borne parasites are common in human populations inhabiting tropical regions of the world. Malaria is endemic along Kenyan Lake Victoria basin and its vectors are fresh water breeders. However, much less is known about the current spatial distribution and habitat characterisation of ...

  10. Species distribution and antifungal susceptibility profile of Candida ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV-AIDS. 0. 2. 2 (3.8%). Table 2: Distribution of candiduria in the hospital departments. Departments. Total number of patients. Number of positive patients .... Howard M, Cipher D, Revankar. SG. 2010. Occurrence of candiduria in a population of chronically catheterized patients with spinal cord injury. Spinal. Cord.,. 48(1):.

  11. Distributed modeling for road authorities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiten, G.T.; Bõhms, H.M.; Nederveen, S. van; Bektas, E.

    2013-01-01

    A great challenge for road authorities is to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their core processes by improving data exchange and sharing using new technologies such as building information modeling (BIM). BIM has already been successfully implemented in other sectors, such as

  12. Citizen Science and Open Data: a Model for Invasive Alien Plant Species in Kenya's Northern Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Ouko, E.; Omondi, S.; Mugo, R. M.; Farah, H.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Adams, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    Invasive species in African savannas pose great threat to the native biodiversity and changes ecosystem functioning. In the forest sector, for instance Acacia species are important sources of fuel-wood, yet at the same time they have increased strain on water resources and shrunken forage spaces for both livestock and wildlife. In recently infested regions, invasive species can progress through the stages of introduction, establishment and dispersal to a full range. Currently there is much worldwide interest in predicting distributions of invasive species, and several organizations are faced with questions of whether and how to tackle such environmental challenges, or how to interpret predictions from the science community. Conservation practioners require mapped estimates of where species could persist in a given region, and this is associated to information about the biotope - i.e. the geographic location of the species' niche. The process of collecting species distribution data for identifying the potential distribution of the invasive species in the invaded ranges has become a challenge both in terms of resource and time allocation. This study highlights innovative approaches in crowdsourcing validation data in mapping and modelling invasive species (Acacia reficiens and Cactus) through involvement of the local communities. The general approach was to model the distribution of A. reficiens and Cactus (Opuntia Spp) using occurrence records from native range, then project the model into new regions to assess susceptibility to invasion using climatic and topographic environmental variables. The models performed better than random prediction (P 0.75.

  13. Detangling the Effects of Environmental Filtering and Dispersal Limitation on Aggregated Distributions of Tree and Shrub Species: Life Stage Matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, He-Ming; Wang, Zhang-Hua; Ma, Zun-Ping; Fang, Xiao-Feng; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Xi-Hua

    2016-01-01

    The pervasive pattern of aggregated tree distributions in natural communities is commonly explained by the joint effect of two clustering processes: environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, yet little consensus remains on the relative importance of the two clustering processes on tree aggregations. Different life stages of examined species were thought to be one possible explanation of this disagreement, because the effect of environmental filtering and dispersal limitation are expected to increase and decrease with tree life stages, respectively. However, few studies have explicitly tested these expectations. In this study, we evaluated these expectations by three different methods (species-habitat association test based on Poisson Clustering model and spatial point pattern analyses based on Heterogeneous Poisson model and the jointly modeling approach) using 36 species in a 20-ha subtropical forest plot. Our results showed that the percentage of species with significant habitat association increased with life stages, and there were fewer species affected by dispersal limitation in later life stages compared with those in earlier stages. Percentage of variance explained by the environmental filtering and dispersal limitation also increases and decreases with life stages. These results provided a promising alternative explanation on the existing mixed results about the relative importance of the two clustering processes. These findings also highlighted the importance of plant life stages for fully understanding species distributions and species coexistence. PMID:27227538

  14. Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana H Ikeda

    Full Text Available We examined the impact climate change (CC will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B. Four major findings emerged. 1 Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2 Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3 Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4 By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent and P. fremontii (13 percent. In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.

  15. Topographic and spatial controls of palm species distributions in a montane rain forest, southern Ecuador

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Harlev, D.; Sørensen, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The northern Andes harbour a flora that is as species-rich or even richer than the 18-times larger lowland Amazon basin. Gaining an understanding of how the high species richness of the Andean region is generated and maintained is therefore of particular interest. Environmental sorting due......). Mantel tests and indicator species analysis showed that both topography and spatial location imposed strong controls on palm species distributions at the study site. Our results suggest that species distributions in the studied montane forest landscape were partly determined by the species' habitat...... distributions at the study site. Other factors must also be involved, notably wind-exposure and hydrology, as discussed for lowland palm communities. Our results show that to understand plant community assembly in the tropical montane forests of the Andes it is too simple to focus just on environmental sorting...

  16. Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

    2017-01-01

    Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of

  17. Alien plant species list and distribution for Camdeboo National Park, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mmoto L. Masubelele

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Protected areas globally are threatened by the potential negative impacts that invasive alien plants pose, and Camdeboo National Park (CNP, South Africa, is no exception. Alien plants have been recorded in the CNP since 1981, before it was proclaimed a national park by South African National Parks in 2005. This is the first publication of a list of alien plants in and around the CNP. Distribution maps of some of the first recorded alien plant species are also presented and discussed. To date, 39 species of alien plants have been recorded, of which 13 are invasive and one is a transformer weed. The majority of alien plant species in the park are herbaceous (39% and succulent (24% species. The most widespread alien plant species in the CNP are Atriplex inflata (= A. lindleyi subsp. inflata, Salsola tragus (= S. australis and cacti species, especially Opuntia ficus-indica. Eradication and control measures that have been used for specific problematic alien plant species are described. Conservation implications: This article represents the first step in managing invasive alien plants and includes the collation of a species list and basic information on their distribution in and around the protected area. This is important for enabling effective monitoring of both new introductions and the distribution of species already present. We present the first species list and distribution information for Camdeboo National Park.

  18. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  19. Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae from Dry Chaco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Gabriela Medina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae, which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas.

  20. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  1. Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erie C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

    2011-01-01

    Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

  2. Geographical Distribution of Taenia asiatica and Related Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Hyeong-Kyu; Rim, Han-Jong

    2009-01-01

    Geographical information of Taenia asiatica is reviewed together with that of T. solium and T. saginata. Current distribution of T. asiatica was found to be mostly from Asian countries: the Republic of Korea, China, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Thailand. Molecular genotypic techniques have found out more countries with T. asiatica from Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Specimens used in this paper were collected from around the world and mostly during international collaboration projects of Korean foundations for parasite control activities (1995-2009) in developing countries. PMID:19885327

  3. Ribosomal DNA in diploid and polyploid Setaria (Poaceae) species: number and distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Nani, Thaís Furtado; Cenzi, Gisele; Pereira, Daniele Lais; Davide, Lisete Chamma; Techio, Vania Helena

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Setaria Beauvois, 1812 is a genus of economically important forage species, including Setaria italica (Linnaeus, 1753) Beauvois, 1812 and Setaria viridis (Linnaeus, 1753) Beauvois, 1812, closely related species and considered as model systems for studies of C4 plants. However, complications and uncertainties related to taxonomy of other species of the genus are frequent due to the existence of numerous synonyms for the same species or multiple species with the same name, and overlapp...

  4. Unimodal models to relate species to environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braak, ter C.J.F.

    1987-01-01

    To assess the impact of environmental change on biological communities knowledge about species-environment relationships is indispensable. Ecologists attempt to uncover the relationships between species and environment from data obtained from field surveys. In the survey, species are scored on their

  5. Spatially-explicit estimation of geographical representation in large-scale species distribution datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalwij, Jesse M; Robertson, Mark P; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

    2014-01-01

    Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution

  6. On the identity of the adventive species of Eufriesea Cockerell in the USA: systematics and potential distribution of the coerulescens species group (Hymenoptera, Apidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor H. Gonzalez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the summer of 2010, two male specimens of the neotropical orchid bee genus Eufriesea Cockerell were collected in the Guadalupe Mountains of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, USA. We tentatively identified them as E. coerulescens (Lepeletier de Saint Fargeau because of the uncertainty surrounding the limits of this taxon and hypothesized that they were members of a persistent bee population, rather than long-distance transient vagrants. The goals of this paper are to clarify the identity of these specimens, assess the species limits of E. coerulescens, and to evaluate suitability of habitats in the USA for this adventive species. Herein, we revise the species in the coerulescens group using morphological features of both sexes and confirm that the specimens of Eufriesea from the USA are E. coerulescens. We recognize the following six species in the coerulescens group: E. coerulescens, E. micheneri Ayala & Engel, E. simillima (Moure & Michener, which is reinstated from synonym with E. coerulescens, and three new species from Mexico (E. barthelli Gonzalez & Griswold, sp. n., E. engeli Gonzalez & Griswold, sp. n., and E. oliveri Gonzalez & Griswold, sp. n.. To facilitate the identification of these taxa, we present a fully illustrated account of the species, comparative diagnoses, descriptions, and an updated key to all Mexican species of Eufriesea. Our analyses using species distribution modelling show an absence of suitable habitat for E. coerulescens in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, thus favoring the long-distance dispersal hypothesis. The analyses also suggest high suitability of habitats across the Caribbean and some areas in Florida, as well as in other regions in Mexico and Central America. We discuss the implications of these results and compare them with the predicted distribution available for the other two known adventive orchid bee species in the USA.

  7. Environmental factors prevail over dispersal constraints in determining the distribution and assembly of Trichoptera species in mountain lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mendoza, Guillermo; Ventura, Marc; Catalan, Jordi

    2015-07-01

    Aiming to elucidate whether large-scale dispersal factors or environmental species sorting prevail in determining patterns of Trichoptera species composition in mountain lakes, we analyzed the distribution and assembly of the most common Trichoptera (Plectrocnemia laetabilis, Polycentropus flavomaculatus, Drusus rectus, Annitella pyrenaea, and Mystacides azurea) in the mountain lakes of the Pyrenees (Spain, France, Andorra) based on a survey of 82 lakes covering the geographical and environmental extremes of the lake district. Spatial autocorrelation in species composition was determined using Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to explore the influence of MEM variables and in-lake, and catchment environmental variables on Trichoptera assemblages. Variance partitioning analysis (partial RDA) revealed the fraction of species composition variation that could be attributed uniquely to either environmental variability or MEM variables. Finally, the distribution of individual species was analyzed in relation to specific environmental factors using binomial generalized linear models (GLM). Trichoptera assemblages showed spatial structure. However, the most relevant environmental variables in the RDA (i.e., temperature and woody vegetation in-lake catchments) were also related with spatial variables (i.e., altitude and longitude). Partial RDA revealed that the fraction of variation in species composition that was uniquely explained by environmental variability was larger than that uniquely explained by MEM variables. GLM results showed that the distribution of species with longitudinal bias is related to specific environmental factors with geographical trend. The environmental dependence found agrees with the particular traits of each species. We conclude that Trichoptera species distribution and composition in the lakes of the Pyrenees are governed predominantly by local environmental factors, rather than by dispersal constraints. For

  8. Modelling refrigerant distribution in minichannel evaporators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brix, Wiebke

    of the liquid and vapour in the inlet manifold. Combining non-uniform airflow and non-uniform liquid and vapour distribution shows that a non-uniform airflow distribution to some degree can be compensated by a suitable liquid and vapour distribution. Controlling the superheat out of the individual channels...... to be equal, results in a cooling capacity very close to the optimum. A sensitivity study considering parameter changes shows that the course of the pressure gradient in the channel is significant, considering the magnitude of the capacity reductions due to non-uniform liquid and vapour distribution and non......This thesis is concerned with numerical modelling of flow distribution in a minichannel evaporator for air-conditioning. The study investigates the impact of non-uniform airflow and non-uniform distribution of the liquid and vapour phases in the inlet manifold on the refrigerant mass flow...

  9. [Species composition and geographical distribution of threatened fishes in Yunnan Province of Southwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Zhong, Jin-Xin

    2013-05-01

    Based on the related published papers, and by using Geographic Information System (ArcGIS 9.3), this paper analyzed the species composition and geographical distribution of threatened fishes in Yunnan Province of Southwest China. There were 83 threatened species living in the Province, belonging to 5 orders, 13 families, and 47 genera. Cypriniformes was absolutely dominant, with 64 species, followed by Siluriformes, with 16 species. Cyprinidae fishes had 51 species, accounting for 79.7% of Cypriniformes. The most species of Cyprinid fishes were of Barbinae (14 species), Cyprininae (10 species), and Cultrinae (10 species). The threatened fishes could be divided into two zoogeographical regions, i. e., Tibetan Plateau region and Oriental region, and their species composition and geographical distribution were resulted from the historical evolution adapted to the related environments. Whatever in rivers and in lakes, the Cyprinid fishes were both absolutely dominant, occupying 36.1% and 31.3% of the total, respectively. The Cyprinid fishes in rivers were mostly of endangered species, while those in lakes were mostly of vulnerable species. The factors affecting the threatened fishes in the Province were discussed from the two aspects of geodynamic evolution and present situation.

  10. Using Historical Atlas Data to Develop High-Resolution Distribution Models of Freshwater Fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Huang

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatial pattern of species distributions is fundamental in biogeography, and conservation and resource management applications. Most species distribution models (SDMs require or prefer species presence and absence data for adequate estimation of model parameters. However, observations with unreliable or unreported species absences dominate and limit the implementation of SDMs. Presence-only models generally yield less accurate predictions of species distribution, and make it difficult to incorporate spatial autocorrelation. The availability of large amounts of historical presence records for freshwater fishes of the United States provides an opportunity for deriving reliable absences from data reported as presence-only, when sampling was predominantly community-based. In this study, we used boosted regression trees (BRT, logistic regression, and MaxEnt models to assess the performance of a historical metacommunity database with inferred absences, for modeling fish distributions, investigating the effect of model choice and data properties thereby. With models of the distribution of 76 native, non-game fish species of varied traits and rarity attributes in four river basins across the United States, we show that model accuracy depends on data quality (e.g., sample size, location precision, species' rarity, statistical modeling technique, and consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The cross-validation area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC tended to be high in the spatial presence-absence models at the highest level of resolution for species with large geographic ranges and small local populations. Prevalence affected training but not validation AUC. The key habitat predictors identified and the fish-habitat relationships evaluated through partial dependence plots corroborated most previous studies. The community-based SDM framework broadens our capability to model species distributions by innovatively

  11. The prevalence and distribution of Fusarium species in Norwegian cereals: a survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kosiak, B.; Torp, M.; Skjerve, E.

    2003-01-01

    the regions. A total of 695 grain samples were analysed. The amount of Fusarium infection varied with cereal species and region of origin. The most frequently isolated Fusarium spp. from all samples were F. avenaceum, F. poae, F. tricinctum and F. culmorum. Other important toxigenic Fusarium spp. were F......In the period 1994-1996 a post-harvest survey was conducted in wheat, barley and oats to assess the occurrence and geographic distribution of Fusarium species in Norwegian cereals. The number of samples investigated was adjusted proportionally to the production of each cereal species within...... and F. culmorum demonstrated in this study , corresponded to previously reported DON-distribution, although DON seems to be produced by different species in different regions. Distribution of the isolated Fusarium species and comparison between cereals and locations are discussed....

  12. Does governance play a role in the distribution of invasive alien species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Thomas; Zu Ermgassen, Philine; Amano, Tatsuya; Peh, Kelvin S-H

    2018-02-01

    Invasive alien species (IAS) constitute a major threat to global biological diversity. In order to control their spread, a detailed understanding of the factors influencing their distribution is essential. Although international trade is regarded as a major force structuring spatial patterns of IAS, the role of other social factors remains unclear. Despite studies highlighting the importance of strong governance in slowing drivers of biodiversity loss such as logging, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, no study has yet analyzed its contribution to the issue of IAS. Using estimates of governance quality and comprehensive spatiotemporal IAS data, we performed multiple linear regressions to investigate the effect of governance quality upon the distribution of species listed under "100 of the worst" IAS in 38 Eurasian countries as defined by DASIE. Our model suggested that for countries with higher GDP, stronger governance was associated with a greater number of the worst IAS; in contrast, for the lowest GDP countries under analysis, stronger governance was associated with fewer of these IAS. We elucidate how the quality of governance within a country has implications for trade, tourism, transport, legislation, and economic development, all of which influence the spread of IAS. While our findings support the common assumption that strengthening governance benefits conservation interventions in countries of smaller economy, we find that this effect is not universal. Stronger governance alone cannot adequately address the problem of IAS, and targeted action is required in relatively high-GDP countries in order to stem the influx of IAS associated with high volumes of trade.

  13. Wealth distribution of simple exchange models coupled with extremal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagatella-Flores, N.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.; Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.

    2015-01-01

    Punctuated Equilibrium (PE) states that after long periods of evolutionary quiescence, species evolution can take place in short time intervals, where sudden differentiation makes new species emerge and some species extinct. In this paper, we introduce and study the effect of punctuated equilibrium on two different asset exchange models: the yard sale model (YS, winner gets a random fraction of a poorer player's wealth) and the theft and fraud model (TF, winner gets a random fraction of the loser's wealth). The resulting wealth distribution is characterized using the Gini index. In order to do this, we consider PE as a perturbation with probability ρ of being applied. We compare the resulting values of the Gini index at different increasing values of ρ in both models. We found that in the case of the TF model, the Gini index reduces as the perturbation ρ increases, not showing dependence with the agents number. While for YS we observe a phase transition which happens around ρc = 0.79. For perturbations ρ <ρc the Gini index reaches the value of one as time increases (an extreme wealth condensation state), whereas for perturbations greater than or equal to ρc the Gini index becomes different to one, avoiding the system reaches this extreme state. We show that both simple exchange models coupled with PE dynamics give more realistic results. In particular for YS, we observe a power low decay of wealth distribution.

  14. Vertical distribution and migration of euphausiid species in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository