WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelling global water

  1. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-11-01

    The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level.

  2. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  3. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

  4. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment concentrati

  5. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  6. A simplified GIS approach to modeling global leaf water isoscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason B West

    Full Text Available The stable hydrogen (delta(2H and oxygen (delta(18O isotope ratios of organic and inorganic materials record biological and physical processes through the effects of substrate isotopic composition and fractionations that occur as reactions proceed. At large scales, these processes can exhibit spatial predictability because of the effects of coherent climatic patterns over the Earth's surface. Attempts to model spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios of water have been made for decades. Leaf water has a particular importance for some applications, including plant organic materials that record spatial and temporal climate variability and that may be a source of food for migrating animals. It is also an important source of the variability in the isotopic composition of atmospheric gases. Although efforts to model global-scale leaf water isotope ratio spatial variation have been made (especially of delta(18O, significant uncertainty remains in models and their execution across spatial domains. We introduce here a Geographic Information System (GIS approach to the generation of global, spatially-explicit isotope landscapes (= isoscapes of "climate normal" leaf water isotope ratios. We evaluate the approach and the resulting products by comparison with simulation model outputs and point measurements, where obtainable, over the Earth's surface. The isoscapes were generated using biophysical models of isotope fractionation and spatially continuous precipitation isotope and climate layers as input model drivers. Leaf water delta(18O isoscapes produced here generally agreed with latitudinal averages from GCM/biophysical model products, as well as mean values from point measurements. These results show global-scale spatial coherence in leaf water isotope ratios, similar to that observed for precipitation and validate the GIS approach to modeling leaf water isotopes. These results demonstrate that relatively simple models of leaf water enrichment

  7. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  8. Multiscale Parameter Regionalization for consistent global water resources modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2017-04-01

    Due to an increasing demand for high- and hyper-resolution water resources information, it has become increasingly important to ensure consistency in model simulations across scales. This consistency can be ensured by scale independent parameterization of the land surface processes, even after calibration of the water resource model. Here, we use the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization technique (MPR, Samaniego et al. 2010, WRR) to allow for a novel, spatially consistent, scale independent parameterization of the global water resource model PCR-GLOBWB. The implementation of MPR in PCR-GLOBWB allows for calibration at coarse resolutions and subsequent parameter transfer to the hyper-resolution. In this study, the model was calibrated at 50 km resolution over Europe and validation carried out at resolutions of 50 km, 10 km and 1 km. MPR allows for a direct transfer of the calibrated transfer function parameters across scales and we find that we can maintain consistent land-atmosphere fluxes across scales. Here we focus on the 2003 European drought and show that the new parameterization allows for high-resolution calibrated simulations of water resources during the drought. For example, we find a reduction from 29% to 9.4% in the percentile difference in the annual evaporative flux across scales when compared against default simulations. Soil moisture errors are reduced from 25% to 6.9%, clearly indicating the benefits of the MPR implementation. This new parameterization allows us to show more spatial detail in water resources simulations that are consistent across scales and also allow validation of discharge for smaller catchments, even with calibrations at a coarse 50 km resolution. The implementation of MPR allows for novel high-resolution calibrated simulations of a global water resources model, providing calibrated high-resolution model simulations with transferred parameter sets from coarse resolutions. The applied methodology can be transferred to other

  9. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  10. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hoogeveen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water. The paper describes methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models.

  11. Modeling global water use for the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, Van M.T.H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and w

  12. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  13. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  14. Reservoir in Global Water Cycle: Macro Scale Hydrologic Modeling for Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, T.; Nijssen, B.; Haddeland, I.; Gao, H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They support purposes, such as irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control, which can substantially change water fluxes at the land surface and redistribute the storage of surface water in space and time. Although most developed countries have sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the natural surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records that focus on water management and human impacts on the global water cycle are much more limited, and most land surface models ignore water management activities. We describe a continental-scale model of reservoir storage, which is combined with a soil moisture deficit-based irrigation scheme within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrological model to simulate the effects of water management in the major river basins of the world. The model is forced with merged NCEP/NCAR and satellite meteorological data at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees latitude-longitude, for the period 1948 to 2010. A total of 167 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total storage capacity around 3900 km3 (nearly 60% of the global total reservoir storage) are simulated. We successfully predict the monthly reservoir storage time series for most of a set of 23 global reservoirs for which observed storage is available either via in situ or satellite remote sensing measurements. We evaluate, on a continental and global basis, the magnitude of inter-seasonal and inter-annual reservoir storage variations in comparison with other terms in the land surface water cycle, including Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and soil moisture.

  15. Modelling global freshwater resources using WaterGAP 2.2 - model overview, selected results and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Güntner, Andreas; Kynast, Ellen; Portmann, Felix T.; Riedel, Claudia; Schneider, Christoph; Song, Qi; Wattenbach, Martin; Zhang, Jing

    2014-05-01

    The estimation of global freshwater flows and storages and their dynamics is essential for the assessment of historical and future water availability both for mankind and ecosystems. WaterGAP 2 is a state-of-the-art water model covering the entire global land area (except Antarctica) on a 0.5° by 0.5° grid. WaterGAP consists of a set of water use models and a hydrological model. Five global water use models representing the sectors irrigation, domestic water demand, manufacturing industries, livestock farming and cooling of thermal power plants inform the sub-model GWSWUSE which calculates net water abstractions distinguishing surface water and groundwater sources. Water flows and storages are simulated by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). WGHM is calibrated against measured discharge for basins covering around 50 % of global land area. Since the original development of WaterGAP in the late 1990s, new input data and refined process algorithms have led to a significant improvement of the results. We present the current version WaterGAP 2.2 including selected results (e.g. discharge seasonality, water storage) and the global water balance for the time period 1971-2000. In addition, some examples of the application of WaterGAP output, e.g. within the GRACE community and for global environmental assessments are shown, reflecting the importance of global hydrology modeling in our globalized world.

  16. The global water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Taikan; Entekhabi, Dara; Harrold, Timothy Ives

    The global water cycle consists of the oceans, water in the atmosphere, and water in the landscape. The cycle is closed by the fluxes between these reservoirs. Although the amounts of water in the atmosphere and river channels are relatively small, the fluxes are high, and this water plays a critical role in society, which is dependent on water as a renewable resource. On a global scale, the meridional component of river runoff is shown to be about 10% of the corresponding atmospheric and oceanic meridional fluxes. Artificial storages and water withdrawals for irrigation have significant impacts on river runoff and hence on the overall global water cycle. Fully coupled atmosphere-land-river-ocean models of the world's climate are essential to assess the future water resources and scarcities in relation to climate change. An assessment of future water scarcity suggests that water shortages will worsen, with a very significant increase in water stress in Africa. The impact of population growth on water stress is shown to be higher than that of climate change. The virtual water trade, which should be taken into account when discussing the global water cycle and water scarcity, is also considered. The movement of virtual water from North America, Oceania, and Europe to the Middle East, North West Africa, and East Asia represents significant global savings of water. The anticipated world water crisis widens the opportunities for the study of the global water cycle to contribute to the development of sustainability within society and to the solution of practical social problems.

  17. Anthropogenic impacts on the global water cycle - a multi model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, F.; haddeland, I.; Biemans, H.; Clark, D.; Fransen, W.; Voss, F.; Floerke, M.; Heinke, J.; Hagemann, S.; Hanasakki, N.; Gerten, D.; Kabat, P.

    2012-04-01

    Humans activities have a large impact on the global water cycle. Through the building of dams and irrigation schemes large amounts of water are diverted from river systems. Through the emission of greenhouse gases causing global warming, also the rainfall and evaporation patterns are changed across the globe. It is, however, still difficult to quantify current and future impacts on the global water cycle due to limited data availability, model imperfections and large uncertainties in climate change projections. To partly overcome these limitations we used a multi-model approach to study anthropogenic impacts on the global water cycle. Four different global hydrological models (H08, VIC, WaterGAP and LPJml) were forced with an historical climate dataset (Watch Forcing Data) and bias corrected output of three different global climate models (Echam, IPSL and CNRM) using two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). In addition the LPJml model was also run with two different land use change scenarios. Combining the water availability simulations with the water demand scenarios developed within the Watch project we also analyzed current and future water scarcity. The analyses show that current human impacts and on the water cycle are especially high in Central Asia, parts of Europe, the Southwestern US and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. The model comparison of agricultural water use and demand showed that the differences in total global agricultural demand and water use were relatively smaller than the differences in simulated water availability. All models showed agricultural water extractions are high in South and East Asia in particular in Northern India and Pakistan and in Northeast China. The most important spatial differences between the different models was observed for Northern China where H08 showed much higher water demands than VIC. Future analyses showed that climate change impacts on the global water cycle are potentially high especially in the semi

  18. Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

  19. Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been develope

  20. Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been develop

  1. Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

    2017-01-01

    Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

  2. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  3. Global water governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.; Falkner, R.

    2013-01-01

    Although (fresh) water challenges are primarily local in nature, globalization has led to feedback effects that make many water challenges global in nature. This chapter examines global water governance. It discusses four phases of water governance, argues that water governance is dispersed and

  4. Global water governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.; Falkner, R.

    2013-01-01

    Although (fresh) water challenges are primarily local in nature, globalization has led to feedback effects that make many water challenges global in nature. This chapter examines global water governance. It discusses four phases of water governance, argues that water governance is dispersed and inco

  5. Global Modeling of Withdrawal, Allocation and Consumptive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive global reservoir data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

  6. Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs have been developed over the recent decades. However, few models consider the feedback between water availability and water demand, and even fewer models explicitly incorporate water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we integrate a global water demand model into a global water balance model, and simulate water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979–2010, considering water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources and explicitly taking into account feedbacks between supply and demand, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We implement an irrigation water scheme, which works dynamically with daily surface and soil water balance, and include a newly available extensive reservoir data set. Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawal show generally good agreement with available reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, but groundwater use has been increasing more rapidly than surface water use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. The alteration is particularly large over the heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

  7. Water ice clouds in a martian global climate model using data assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Steele, Liam J.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, M; Mulholland, D. P.

    2011-01-01

    The water cycle is one of the key seasonal cycles on Mars, and the radiative effects of water ice clouds have recently been shown to alter the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Current Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) are capable of representing the formation and evolution of water ice clouds, though there are still many unanswered questions regarding their effect on the water cycle, the local atmosphere and the global circulation. We discuss the properties of clouds in the LMD/UK M...

  8. Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fekete, Balázs M.; Pisacane, Giovanna; Wisser, Dominik

    2016-10-01

    Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning. Practitioners traditionally coped with variabilities in the hydrological processes by assuming stationarity in the probability distributions and attempted to address non-stationarity by revising this probabilistic properties via continued hydro-climatological observations. Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative for water management plannig. This paper takes a brief assessment of the state of Global Circulation Models (GCM) and their applications by presenting case studies over Global, European and African domains accompanied by literature examples. Our paper demonstrates core deficiencies in GCM based water resources assessments and articulates the need for improved Earth system monitoring that is essential not only for water managers, but to aid the improvements of GCMs in the future.

  9. Strategies for water management. A global irrigation model

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, Joao; Sousa, Miguel; Torres-Campos, Tiago; Pereira, Mariana

    2011-01-01

    This study focuses on the physical component of irrigation water management in regions where its scarcity is intensified by recent urban centre development, seeking not only the definition of strategies for major savings in consumption, but rather their inclusion in landscape principles for more sustainable urban design solutions.The (re)establishment of a close relation between water management and planting techniques (perpetuated in vernacular irrigation techniques) is quintessential. There...

  10. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  11. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.

  12. A new model for long-term global water demand projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Xing, B.; Shi, H.; Zhang, B.

    2015-12-01

    Rational projection of water demand is critically important to the future development of society. Achieving the desired accuracy for long-term water demand projection (WDP) is challenging due to the complex and uncertain relationships between water demand and various socio-economic indicators. At the same time, traditional forecasting methods, such as multivariate statistical analysis and time series analysis methods, are not adequate for long-term WDP because of the limitations in modelling structures. In this study, a five-staged WDP model is proposed and applied to the global WDPs. The hypothesis for the new model is that water demand is related to socio-economic development level. From the historic data in the Western Europe and United States, the five stages of water demand can be clearly observed. These stages are marked by evident change in water demand trend, and are categorized by the per capita GDP at that stage. The proposed WDP model is then validated with historic water consumption data in United Kingdom and Hong Kong, and the proposed model can explain the historic water consumption well. The developed five-staged WDP model is applied to the WDPs in Hong Kong and Pearl River Basin. Further, using the newly developed water consumption algorithm, this study investigates the global future water demand.

  13. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  14. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Wiberg, D.

    2015-08-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS) coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  15. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS initiative and its approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  16. Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; 4 Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; Doell. Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; Gochis, David; van de Giesen, Nick; Houser, Paul; Jaffe, Peter R.; Kollet, Stefan; Lehner, Bernhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Sivpalan, Murugesu; Sheffield, Justin; Wade, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

  17. Global Climate Modeling of the Martian water cycle with improved microphysics and radiatively active water ice clouds

    CERN Document Server

    Navarro, Thomas; Forget, François; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Montmessin, Franck

    2013-01-01

    Radiative effects of water ice clouds have noteworthy consequences on the Martian atmosphere, its thermal structure and circulation. Accordingly, the inclusion of such effects in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) greatly modifies the simulated Martian water cycle. The intent of this paper is to address the impact of radiatively active clouds on atmospheric water vapor and ice in the GCM and improve its representation. We propose a new enhanced modeling of the water cycle, consisting of detailed cloud microphysics with dynamic condensation nuclei and a better implementation of perennial surface water ice. This physical modeling is based on tunable parameters. This new version of the GCM is compared to the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of the water cycle. Satisfying results are reached for both vapor and cloud opacities. However, simulations yield a lack of water vapor in the tropics after Ls=180{\\deg} which is persistent in simulations compared to observations, as a consequence of aphelion c...

  18. High-resolution modeling of human and climate impacts on global water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; de Graaf, Inge E. M.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.

    2016-06-01

    A number of global hydrological models [GHMs) have been developed in recent decades in order to understand the impacts of climate variability and human activities on water resources availability. The spatial resolution of GHMs is mostly constrained at a 0.5° by 0.5° grid [˜50km by ˜50km at the equator). However, for many of the water-related problems facing society, the current spatial scale of GHMs is insufficient to provide locally relevant information. Here using the PCR-GLOBWB model we present for the first time an analysis of human and climate impacts on global water resources at a 0.1° by 0.1° grid [˜10km by ˜10km at the equator) in order to depict more precisely regional variability in water availability and use. Most of the model input data (topography, vegetation, soil properties, routing, human water use) have been parameterized at a 0.1° global grid and feature a distinctively higher resolution. Distinct from many other GHMs, PCR-GLOBWB includes groundwater representation and simulates groundwater heads and lateral groundwater flows based on MODFLOW with existing geohydrological information. This study shows that global hydrological simulations at higher spatial resolutions are feasible for multi-decadal to century periods.

  19. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  20. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  1. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2013-04-01

    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation δ2H and δ18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  2. Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

    2017-04-01

    In many countries, data is scarce, incomplete and often not easily shared. In these cases, global satellite and reanalysis data provide an alternative to assess water resources. To assess water resources in Azerbaijan, a completely distributed and physically based hydrological wflow-sbm model was set-up for the entire Kura basin. We used SRTM elevation data, a locally available river map and one from OpenStreetMap to derive the drainage direction network at the model resolution of approximately 1x1 km. OpenStreetMap data was also used to derive the fraction of paved area per cell to account for the reduced infiltration capacity (c.f. Schellekens et al. 2014). We used the results of a global study to derive root zone capacity based on climate data (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016). To account for the variation in vegetation cover over the year, monthly averages of Leaf Area Index, based on MODIS data, were used. For the soil-related parameters, we used global estimates as provided by Dai et al. (2013). This enabled the rapid derivation of a first estimate of parameter values for our hydrological model. Digitized local meteorological observations were scarce and available only for limited time period. Therefore several sources of global meteorological data were evaluated: (1) EU-WATCH global precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1958-2001 (Harding et al., 2011), (2) WFDEI precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1979-2014 (by Weedon et al., 2014), (3) MSWEP precipitation (Beck et al., 2016) and (4) local precipitation data from more than 200 stations in the Kura basin were available from the NOAA website for a period up to 1991. The latter, together with data archives from Azerbaijan, were used as a benchmark to evaluate the global precipitation datasets for the overlapping period 1958-1991. By comparing the datasets, we found that monthly mean precipitation of EU-WATCH and WFDEI coincided well

  3. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest

  4. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2011-12-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

  5. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate

  6. A Parallel Icosahedral, Higher Order Discontinuous Galerkin, Global Shallow Water Model: Global Ocean Tides and Aquaplanet Benchmarks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehipour, H.; Stuhne, G.; Peltier, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    The development of models of the ocean tides with higher resolution near the coastlines and courser mesh offshore, has been required due to the significant impacts of coastline configuration and bathymetry (associated with sea level rise) on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents, not only under present conditions but also in the deep past [Griffiths and Peltier GRL 2008, Griffiths and Peltier AMS 2009, Hill et al. JGR 2011]. A global tidal model with enhanced resolution at the poles has been developed by Griffiths and Peltier [2008, 2009], which, although capable of highly resolving polar ocean tides , is based upon a standard structured Arakawa C grid and hence is not capable of resolving coastlines locally. Furthermore the use of a nested modelling approach, although it may enable local spatial refinement [Hill et al. 2011], nevertheless suffers from its inherent dependence on the availability of a global tidal model with necessarily low spatial resolution to provide the open boundary conditions required for the local high resolution model. On the other hand, an unstructured triangulation of the global domain provides a standalone framework that may be employed to study highly resolved regions without relying on secondary models. The first step in the development of the structure we are employing was described in Stuhne and Peltier [Ocean Modeling, 2009]. In further extending this modelling structure we are employing a new discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization of the governing equations in order to provide very high order of accuracy while also ensuring that momentum transport is locally conserved [Giraldo et al. JCP 2002]. After validating the 2D shallow water model with several test suites appropriate to aquaplanets [Williamson et al. JCP 1992, Galewsky et al. Tellus 2004, Nair and Lauritzen JCP 2010], the governing equations are extended to include the influence of internal tide drag in the deep ocean as well as the drag in shallow marginal seas

  7. Evaluation of global water quality - the potential of a data- and model-driven analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärlund, Ilona; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph; Völker, Jeanette; Malsy, Marcus; Kaus, Andrew; Reder, Klara; Büttner, Olaf; Katterfeld, Christiane; Dietrich, Désirée; Borchardt, Dietrich

    2016-04-01

    The ongoing socio-economic development presents a new challenge for water quality worldwide, especially in developing and emerging countries. It is estimated that due to population growth and the extension of water supply networks, the amount of waste water will rise sharply. This can lead to an increased risk of surface water quality degradation, if the wastewater is not sufficiently treated. This development has impacts on ecosystems and human health, as well as food security. The United Nations Member States have adopted targets for sustainable development. They include, inter alia, sustainable protection of water quality and sustainable use of water resources. To achieve these goals, appropriate monitoring strategies and the development of indicators for water quality are required. Within the pre-study for a 'World Water Quality Assessment' (WWQA) led by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), a methodology for assessing water quality, taking into account the above-mentioned objectives has been developed. The novelty of this methodology is the linked model- and data-driven approach. The focus is on parameters reflecting the key water quality issues, such as increased waste water pollution, salinization or eutrophication. The results from the pre-study show, for example, that already about one seventh of all watercourses in Latin America, Africa and Asia show high organic pollution. This is of central importance for inland fisheries and associated food security. In addition, it could be demonstrated that global water quality databases have large gaps. These must be closed in the future in order to obtain an overall picture of global water quality and to target measures more efficiently. The aim of this presentation is to introduce the methodology developed within the WWQA pre-study and to show selected examples of application in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

  8. Trends in 20th Century Global Rainfall Interception as Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Implications for Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Steve; Prentice, Colin

    2010-05-01

    In order to monitor and forecast regions of potential freshwater stress and surplus, a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the global hydrological cycle and its components is needed. Such work should lead to better constrained estimates of freshwater fluxes and facilitate the identification of regions requiring enhanced water management. The research described here aims to quantify the contribution of climate- and CO2-induced changes in the physical properties of the land surface, mediated by biological processes. Global climate change is expected to bring about substantial latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in vegetation cover. Shifts in species distribution, the potential of increased leaf area index (LAI) but also reduced stomatal conductance in response to rising concentrations of CO2, and variability in precipitation, can all influence rates and spatial variability of the interception-throughfall balance. These effects will have implications for runoff generation and the partitioning between 'green' and 'white' water fluxes. The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM, a development of the LPJ model) was evaluated in terms of its interception component and used to simulate trends in global relative throughfall from 1901-2006, as this is directly relevant for runoff. We estimate that mean global annual runoff was reduced by 164 ±18 km3/year during the twentieth century as a result of biophysical changes controlling relative throughfall generation. Widespread decreases in relative throughfall of typically between 0 and -1% are evident between 1901-1953 and 1954-2006. Changes of up to

  9. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  10. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  11. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude. This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2, an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less

  12. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  13. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  14. Assessment of inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Liepert, Beate G

    2011-01-01

    Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses however, have implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with IPCC-AR4 models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget and an imbalanced flux of -0.14 Sv exists whereas the multi-model median imbalance is only -0.02 Sv. For most models, the detected imbalances furthermore change over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 IPCC-AR4 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a "leaking" of moisture from the atmo...

  15. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  16. Bifurcation analysis of the simplified models of boiling water reactor and identification of global stability boundary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandey, Vikas; Singh, Suneet, E-mail: suneet.singh@iitb.ac.in

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • Non-linear stability analysis of nuclear reactor is carried out. • Global and local stability boundaries are drawn in the parameter space. • Globally stable, bi-stable, and unstable regions have been demarcated. • The identification of the regions is verified by numerical simulations. - Abstract: Nonlinear stability study of the neutron coupled thermal hydraulics instability has been carried out by several researchers for boiling water reactors (BWRs). The focus of these studies has been to identify subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. Supercritical Hopf bifurcation are soft or safe due to the fact that stable limit cycles arise in linearly unstable region; linear and global stability boundaries are same for this bifurcation. It is well known that the subcritical bifurcations can be considered as hard or dangerous due to the fact that unstable limit cycles (nonlinear phenomena) exist in the (linearly) stable region. The linear stability leads to a stable equilibrium in such regions, only for infinitesimally small perturbations. However, finite perturbations lead to instability due to the presence of unstable limit cycles. Therefore, it is evident that the linear stability analysis is not sufficient to understand the exact stability characteristics of BWRs. However, the effect of these bifurcations on the stability boundaries has been rarely discussed. In the present work, the identification of global stability boundary is demonstrated using simplified models. Here, five different models with different thermal hydraulics feedback have been investigated. In comparison to the earlier works, current models also include the impact of adding the rate of change in temperature on void reactivity as well as effect of void reactivity on rate of change of temperature. Using the bifurcation analysis of these models the globally stable region in the parameter space has been identified. The globally stable region has only stable solutions and

  17. Sinking of North Atlantic waters in a global ocean model: location and controlling factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsman, Caroline; Drijfhout, Sybren; Dijkstra, Henk; Spall, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate. The classical view of an ocean conveyor belt with northward surface currents and southward return currents transporting convectively-formed waters from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean to other ocean basins suggests a tight relation between convection and sinking. However, convection regions feature very little vertical mass transport. Instead, it has been argued that the sinking of waters must take place near boundaries where ageostrophic processes affect the flow. So far, this has been confirmed in highly idealized regional model studies and in laboratory experiments. It is, however, unclear how well the sinking of dense waters is represented in the current generation of global ocean models and climate models, and whether the factors driving and controlling the sinking in these models are in accordance with the developed theory. This is of crucial importance for our confidence in projections of the future behavior of the AMOC, which are based on this type of model. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of the vertical transport in two global ocean models: an eddy-permitting model at 0.25 degree resolution and its coarser 1.0 degree resolution counterpart. We show that the sinking indeed predominantly occurs in a narrow region close to the boundary in both model simulations, and not in deep convection regions. Notably, the amount of vertical transport that is found along the edges of the North Atlantic Ocean is highly variable in space, and large differences exist between the two model versions. In the eddy-permitting model, the magnitude of the local sinking appears to be governed by alongshore variations in density near the boundary, in line with theory.

  18. Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, David, D.; Ferrare, Richard, A.

    2011-07-06

    The 'Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds' project focused extensively on the analysis and utilization of water vapor and aerosol profiles derived from the ARM Raman lidar at the Southern Great Plains ARM site. A wide range of different tasks were performed during this project, all of which improved quality of the data products derived from the lidar or advanced the understanding of atmospheric processes over the site. These activities included: upgrading the Raman lidar to improve its sensitivity; participating in field experiments to validate the lidar aerosol and water vapor retrievals; using the lidar aerosol profiles to evaluate the accuracy of the vertical distribution of aerosols in global aerosol model simulations; examining the correlation between relative humidity and aerosol extinction, and how these change, due to horizontal distance away from cumulus clouds; inferring boundary layer turbulence structure in convective boundary layers from the high-time-resolution lidar water vapor measurements; retrieving cumulus entrainment rates in boundary layer cumulus clouds; and participating in a field experiment that provided data to help validate both the entrainment rate retrievals and the turbulent profiles derived from lidar observations.

  19. Water isotope variations in the global ocean model MPI-OM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The stable water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated as passive tracers into the oceanic general circulation model MPI-OM, and a control simulation under present-day climate conditions is analyzed in detail. Both δ18O and δD distributions at the ocean surface and deep ocean are generally consistent with available observations on the large scale. The modelled δD-δ18O relations in surface waters slightly deviates from the slope of the global meteoric water line in most basins, and a much steeper slope is detected in Arctic Oceans. The simulated deuterium excess of ocean surface waters shows small variations between 80° S and 55° N, and a strong decrease north of 55° N. The model is also able to capture the quasi-linear relationship between δ18O and salinity S, as well as δD and S, as seen in observational data. Both in the model results and observations, the surface δ–S relations show a steeper slope in extra-tropical regions than in tropical regions, which indicates relatively more addition of isotopically depleted water at high latitudes.

  20. eWaterCycle: Live Demonstration of an Operational Hyper Resolution Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drost, N.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Hut, R.; van Meersbergen, M.; Donchyts, G.; Bierkens, M. F.; Van De Giesen, N.

    2014-12-01

    The eWaterCycle project works towards running an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model, assimilating incoming satellite data in real time, and making 14 day predictions of floods and droughts.In our approach, we aim to re-use existing models and techniques as much as possible, and make use of standards and open source software wherever we can. To couple the different parts of our system we use the Basic Model Interface (BMI) as developped in the CSDMS community.Starting point of the eWaterCycle project was the PCR-GLOBWB model built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model has been partially re-engineered in order to enable it to run in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, (currently 10 x 10km).For the data assimilation we make heavy use of the OpenDA system. This allows us to make use of different data assimilation techniques without the need to implement these from scratch. We have developped a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. As a data assimilation technique we currently use an Ensemble Kalman Filter, and are working on a variant of this technique optimized for HPC environments.One of the next steps in the eWaterCycle project is to couple the model with a hydrodynamic model. Our system will start a localized simulation on demand based on triggers in the global model, giving detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management.We will show a live demo of our system, including real-time integration of satellite data.

  1. Syndromes of the global water crisis - exploring the emergent dynamics through socio-hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuil, Linda; Levy, Morgan; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Penny, Gopal; Scott, Christopher; Srinivasan, Veena; Thompson, Sally; Troy, Tara

    2014-05-01

    There is a great variety of human water systems at the global scale due to the types and timing of water supply/availability, and the high diversity in water use, management, and abstraction methods. Importantly, this is largely driven by differences in welfare, social values, institutional frameworks, and cultural traditions of communities. The observed trend of a growing world population in combination with changing habits that generally increase our water consumption per capita implies that an increasing number of communities will face water scarcity. Over the years much research has been done in order to increase our understanding of human water systems and their associated water problems, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Despite these efforts, the challenge has remained to generalize findings beyond the areas of interests and to establish a common framework in order to compare and learn from different cases as a basis for finding solutions. In a recent analysis of multiple interdisciplinary subnational water resources case studies, it was shown that a suite of distinct resources utilization patterns leading to a water crisis can be identified, namely: 1) groundwater depletion, 2) ecological destruction, 3) drought-driven conflicts, 4) unmet subsistence needs, 5) resource capture by elite and 6) water reallocation to nature (Srinivasan et al., 2012). The effects of these syndromes on long-lasting human wellbeing can be grouped in the following outcomes: unsustainability, vulnerability, chronic scarcity and adaptation. The aim of this group collaboration is to build on this work through the development of a socio-hydrological model that is capable of reproducing the above syndromes and outcomes, ultimately giving insight in the different pathways leading to the syndromes. The resulting model will be distinct compared to existing model frameworks for two reasons. First of all, feedback loops between the hydrological, the environmental and the human

  2. Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, E.F.; Roundy, J.K.; Troy, T.J.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Blyth, E.; Roo, A.A. de; Doll, P.; Ek, M.; Famiglietti, J.; Gochis, D.; Giesen, N. van de; Houser, P.; Jaffe, P.R.; Kollet, S.; Lehner, B.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Peters-Liedard, C.; Sivapalan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wade, A.; Whitehead, P.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring Earth’s terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and

  3. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate

  4. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate

  5. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential part of environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources research and management. This is mainly because of the notion that models developed by scientists for scientific purposes are often not suitable for practical management for several reasons, such as (too) high complexity, low user-friendliness and lack of problem/solution orientation. Participation is seen as a key concept for bridging the gap between modelers and stakeholders. In this submission we focus on the PM-process in the GLOWA-Danube (GD) project (German Ministry of Education and Research, 2001-2011). GD was carried out by an interdisciplinary consortium of 17 research organizations. The main goal was to develop and to use the integrated modelling system DANUBIA as a tool to evaluate the impact of global change on the Upper Danube Catchment (Southern Germany, 77,000 km^2) and to discuss the implications with relevant stakeholders. An intensive stakeholder dialoged was carried out to include the perspective of stakeholders and end-users in the model and scenario development - with the final goal of facilitating implementation of DANUBIA in practical management after termination of the scientific project. This contribution looks at the specific conditions for PM in the field of global change scenarios and complex integrated models. The different phases of the PM process in GD are presented along with a discussion of the respective results. Overall, the impact of stakeholder interaction on the model development was much lower than expected. The ultimate goal of using the PM process to develop DANUBIA as a tool used in practical management after termination of the scientific project was not reached. However, implications of climate change and modelling could be discussed with the stakeholders involved and relevant learning processes on both sides (scientists and stakeholders) were facilitated in the final phase. In the

  6. Validation of terrestrial water storage variations as simulated by different global numerical models with GRACE satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liangjing; Dobslaw, Henryk; Stacke, Tobias; Güntner, Andreas; Dill, Robert; Thomas, Maik

    2017-02-01

    Estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are used to assess the accuracy of four global numerical model realizations that simulate the continental branch of the global water cycle. Based on four different validation metrics, we demonstrate that for the 31 largest discharge basins worldwide all model runs agree with the observations to a very limited degree only, together with large spreads among the models themselves. Since we apply a common atmospheric forcing data set to all hydrological models considered, we conclude that those discrepancies are not entirely related to uncertainties in meteorologic input, but instead to the model structure and parametrization, and in particular to the representation of individual storage components with different spatial characteristics in each of the models. TWS as monitored by the GRACE mission is therefore a valuable validation data set for global numerical simulations of the terrestrial water storage since it is sensitive to very different model physics in individual basins, which offers helpful insight to modellers for the future improvement of large-scale numerical models of the global terrestrial water cycle.

  7. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  8. Fast and Parallel Spectral Transform Algorithms for Global Shallow Water Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakob, Ruediger

    1993-01-01

    This dissertation examines spectral transform algorithms for the solution of the shallow water equations on the sphere and studies their implementation and performance on shared memory vector multiprocessors. Beginning with the standard spectral transform algorithm in vorticity divergence form and its implementation in the Fortran based parallel programming language Force, two modifications are researched. First, the transforms and matrices associated with the meridional derivatives of the associated Legendre functions are replaced by corresponding operations with the spherical harmonic coefficients. Second, based on the fast Fourier transform and the fast multipole method, a lower complexity algorithm is derived that uses fast transformations between Legendre and interior Fourier nodes, fast surface spherical truncation and a fast spherical Helmholtz solver. The first modification is fully implemented, and comparative performance data are obtained for varying resolution and number of processes, showing a significant storage saving and slightly reduced execution time on a Cray Y -MP 8/864. The important performance parameters for the spectral transform algorithm and its implementation on vector multiprocessors are determined and validated with the measured performance data. The second modification is described at the algorithmic level, but only the novel fast surface spherical truncation algorithm is implemented. This new multipole algorithm has lower complexity than the standard algorithm, and requires asymptotically only order N ^2log N operations per time step for a grid with order N^2 points. Because the global shallow water equations are similar to the horizontal dynamical component of general circulation models, the results can be applied to spectral transform numerical weather prediction and climate models. In general, the derived algorithms may speed up the solution of time dependent partial differential equations in spherical geometry. A performance model

  9. Global land and water grabbing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, Maria Cristina; Saviori, Antonio; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2013-01-15

    Societal pressure on the global land and freshwater resources is increasing as a result of the rising food demand by the growing human population, dietary changes, and the enhancement of biofuel production induced by the rising oil prices and recent changes in United States and European Union bioethanol policies. Many countries and corporations have started to acquire relatively inexpensive and productive agricultural land located in foreign countries, as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the number of transnational land deals between 2005 and 2009. Often known as "land grabbing," this phenomenon is associated with an appropriation of freshwater resources that has never been assessed before. Here we gather land-grabbing data from multiple sources and use a hydrological model to determine the associated rates of freshwater grabbing. We find that land and water grabbing are occurring at alarming rates in all continents except Antarctica. The per capita volume of grabbed water often exceeds the water requirements for a balanced diet and would be sufficient to improve food security and abate malnourishment in the grabbed countries. It is found that about 0.31 × 10(12) m(3) · y(-1) of green water (i.e., rainwater) and up to 0.14 × 10(12) m(3) · y(-1) of blue water (i.e., irrigation water) are appropriated globally for crop and livestock production in 47 × 10(6) ha of grabbed land worldwide (i.e., in 90% of the reported global grabbed land).

  10. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  11. Extensive validation of the global water resources model PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: the added value of human impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peßenteiner, Stefanie; Van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    With growing populations, economic expansion, and rising standards of living the demand for water is increasing across the globe. Demographic developments and a changing climate will further aggravate the pressure on global water resources. In the EU FP7 project EartH2Observe in-situ data, earth observations, and models will be assimilated to provide a comprehensive reanalysis of the global water resources system, accounting for all components of the global water cycle including information on the impacts of human activities, e.g., through water consumption and man-made reservoirs. Synthesizing as many sources of information as possible bears great potential to improve global water balance estimates and to consequently allow for consistent and informed decisions in water management. One of the modelling suites participating in EartH2Observe is the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (Van Beek et al., 2011) which already accounts for anthropogenic perturbations in the water cycle. Here we present an extensive validation of the latest model version PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (Sutanudjaja et al., 2014) which comprises dynamic withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of ground- and surface water resources, irrigation, return flows of unconsumed water to surface water and groundwater resources, and more than 6000 reservoirs of the GRanD database. This study presents the first step towards a full reanalysis merging earth observations, in-situ data and models. We focus on human activities altering the hydrologic cycle over the past 30 years by evaluating PCR-GLOBWB 'natural' and 'humanly-modified' simulations in 0.5°× 0.5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. To this end our model is forced with the newly available WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data) data set. PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 simulations of river discharge, water abstraction and water use are validated against observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre as well as available national and

  12. Hybrid ensemble 4DVar assimilation of stratospheric ozone using a global shallow water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

    2016-07-01

    Wind extraction from stratospheric ozone (O3) assimilation is examined using a hybrid ensemble 4-D variational assimilation (4DVar) shallow water model (SWM) system coupled to the tracer advection equation. Stratospheric radiance observations are simulated using global observations of the SWM fluid height (Z), while O3 observations represent sampling by a typical polar-orbiting satellite. Four ensemble sizes were examined (25, 50, 100, and 1518 members), with the largest ensemble equal to the number of dynamical state variables. The optimal length scale for ensemble localization was found by tuning an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This scale was then used for localizing the ensemble covariances that were blended with conventional covariances in the hybrid 4DVar experiments. Both optimal length scale and optimal blending coefficient increase with ensemble size, with optimal blending coefficients varying from 0.2-0.5 for small ensembles to 0.5-1.0 for large ensembles. The hybrid system outperforms conventional 4DVar for all ensemble sizes, while for large ensembles the hybrid produces similar results to the offline EnKF. Assimilating O3 in addition to Z benefits the winds in the hybrid system, with the fractional improvement in global vector wind increasing from ˜ 35 % with 25 and 50 members to ˜ 50 % with 1518 members. For the smallest ensembles (25 and 50 members), the hybrid 4DVar assimilation improves the zonal wind analysis over conventional 4DVar in the Northern Hemisphere (winter-like) region and also at the Equator, where Z observations alone have difficulty constraining winds due to lack of geostrophy. For larger ensembles (100 and 1518 members), the hybrid system results in both zonal and meridional wind error reductions, relative to 4DVar, across the globe.

  13. Saving water through global trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chapagain, A.K.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2005-01-01

    Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water product

  14. Saving water through global trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chapagain, Ashok; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2005-01-01

    Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water

  15. Century‐scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McCabe, Gregory J; Wolock, David M

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002...

  16. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  17. Global Shortage of Fresh Water

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>阅读下表。以Global Shortage of Fresh Water为题写一篇短文。词数:100—120学生习作:Global Shortage of Fresh Water Fresh water seems ineverywhere,in rivers,lakes,wells as well as rain,which make some people think that we can’t use up water.

  18. Global Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten

    insight from the literature about business models, international product policy, international entry modes and globalization into a conceptual model of relevant design elements of global business models, enabling global business model innovation to deal with differences in a downstream perspective...... regarding the customer interface and in an upstream perspective regarding the supply infrastructure. The paper offers a coherent conceptual dynamic meta-model of global business model innovation. Students, scholars and managers within the field of international business can use this conceptualization...... to understand, to study, and to create global business model innovation. Managerial and research implications draw on the developed ideal type of global business model innovation....

  19. Xanthos - A Global Hydrologic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya; Vernon, Christopher R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Link, Robert P.; Feng, Leyang; Liu, Yaling; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

    2017-09-11

    Xanthos is a Python model designed to quantify and analyze global water availability historically and in the future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step. Its performance and functionality was tested through real-world applications. It is open-source, extensible and accessible for researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, hydrologic processes and diagnostics modules parameterized by a user-defined configuration file.

  20. Numerical modeling and remote sensing of global water management systems: Applications for land surface modeling, satellite missions, and sustainable water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solander, Kurt C.

    The ability to accurately quantify water storages and fluxes in water management systems through observations or models is of increasing importance due to the expected impacts from climate change and population growth worldwide. Here, I describe three innovative techniques developed to better understand this problem. First, a model was created to represent reservoir storage and outflow with the objective of integration into a Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate the impacts of reservoir management on the climate system. Given this goal, storage capacity represented the lone model input required that is not already available to an LSM user. Model parameterization was linked to air temperature to allow future simulations to adapt to a changing climate, making it the first such model to mimic the potential response of a reservoir operator to climate change. Second, spatial and temporal error properties of future NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite reservoir operations were quantified. This work invoked the use of the SWOTsim instrument simulator, which was run over a number of synthetic and actual reservoirs so the resulting error properties could be extrapolated to the global scale. The results provide eventual users of SWOT data with a blueprint of expected reservoir error properties so such characteristics can be determined a priori for a reservoir given knowledge about its topology and anticipated repeat orbit pass over its location. Finally, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission was used in conjunction with in-situ water use records to evaluate sustainable water use at the two-digit HUC basin scale over the contiguous United States. Results indicate that the least sustainable water management region is centered in the southwest, where consumptive water use exceeded water availability by over 100% on average for some of these basins. This work represents the first attempt at evaluating sustainable

  1. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  2. Translating global climate model projections into usable information for water managers and industry: A case study from Tasmania, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, J.; Ling, F.; Graham, B.; Grose, M.; Corney, S.; Holz, G.; White, C.; Gaynor, S.; Bindoff, N.

    2010-09-01

    Translating meteorological projections from global climate models (GCMs) into useful information for water managers and industry involves addressing a combination of technical and communication challenges. The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has projected water yield in Tasmania, Australia to 2100. This paper describes how the Climate Futures for Tasmania project successfully translated climate projections into useable information for water managers and industry. From its inception, the Climate Futures for Tasmania project has maintained a dialogue with the two major water managers in the Tasmania: the Department of Primary Industry, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE), the government body with statutory responsibility for water management in Tasmania, and Hydro Tasmania, Australia's largest hydropower generator. Frequent discussions with these two organisations directed the technical research into future water yields. Tasmania is a difficult region for climate change-hydrology studies. Tasmania's complex rainfall patterns are not replicated by GCMs, and hence GCMs produce information that is too general to be useful to Tasmanian water managers. To overcome this problem, GCM projections were downscaled to a finer spatial resolution. Downscaling greatly improved the spatial correlation of modelled rainfall with observations, and accordingly the usefulness of the projections to water managers. The downscaled climate projections were fed into hydrological models to produce projections of streamflow. The hydrological modelling involved two steps: 1. Runoff modelling - calculating statewide, gridded natural runoff at a resolution of 0.05 degrees 2. River system modelling - aggregating the gridded natural runoff to 65 Tasmanian river basins and then accounting for human activities in rivers including dams, irrigation and hydropower generation. Splitting the hydrological modelling into these two steps allows the effects of climate and human activity to be

  3. Assessment of the contamination of drinking water supply wells by pesticides from surface water resources using a finite element reactive transport model and global sensitivity analysis techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaguerra, Flavio; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Binning, Philip John

    2013-01-01

    SummaryA reactive transport model is employed to evaluate the potential for contamination of drinking water wells by surface water pollution. The model considers various geologic settings, includes sorption and degradation processes and is tested by comparison with data from a tracer experiment where fluorescein dye injected in a river is monitored at nearby drinking water wells. Three compounds were considered: an older pesticide MCPP (Mecoprop) which is mobile and relatively persistent, glyphosate (Roundup), a newer biodegradable and strongly sorbing pesticide, and its degradation product AMPA. Global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method is employed to identify the dominant model parameters. Results show that the characteristics of clay aquitards (degree of fracturing and thickness), pollutant properties and well depths are crucial factors when evaluating the risk of drinking water well contamination from surface water. This study suggests that it is unlikely that glyphosate in streams can pose a threat to drinking water wells, while MCPP in surface water can represent a risk: MCPP concentration at the drinking water well can be up to 7% of surface water concentration in confined aquifers and up to 10% in unconfined aquifers. Thus, the presence of confining clay aquitards may not prevent contamination of drinking water wells by persistent compounds in surface water. Results are consistent with data on pesticide occurrence in Denmark where pesticides are found at higher concentrations at shallow depths and close to streams.

  4. Comparison of Total Water Storage Anomalies from Global Hydrologic and Land Surface Models and New GRACE Satellite Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Sun, A.; Save, H.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Wada, Y.; Doll, P. M.; Eisner, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is Increasing interest in global hydrology based on modeling and remote sensing, highlighting the need to compare output from modeling and remote sensing approaches. Here we evaluate simulated terrestrial Total Water Storage anomalies (TWSA) from global hydrologic models (GHMs: WGHM and PRC-GLOBWB) and global land surface models (LSMs, such as GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, and CLM) using newly released GRACE mascons solutions from the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research. The comparisons are based on monthly TWS anomalies over 13 years (April 2002 - April 2015) for 176 basins globally. Performance metrics include scatter plots of simulated and GRACE observed TWSA by basin with median slopes for different models indicating bias, correlations (shape and timing of TWS time series), and variability ratio (standard deviation of model TWSA/std. dev. GRACE observed TWSA), with optimal values of 1 indicating perfect agreement. The GRACE data were also disaggregated into long-term trends and seasonal amplitudes. Modeled TWS anomalies are biased low by 20 - 30% relative to GRACE TWSA with similar bias levels for basins in different size classes but greater bias with increasing basin aridity. Discrepancies between models and GRACE TWSA are greatest for long-term trends in TWSA with 60 - 95% underestimation of GRACE TWSA by models. There is good agreement in seasonal amplitudes from models and GRACE ( 0.9 for models with little impact of basin size or climate for most models. These comparisons highlight reliable model performance in terms of seasonal amplitudes in TWSA and underestimation of long-term trends in TWSA and in arid basins.

  5. Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

    2015-01-01

    This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

  6. Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

    2015-01-01

    This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

  7. Improvements of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model and Simulations of Carbon and Water at an Upland-Oak Forest

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The interest in the development and improvement of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which have the potential to simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen, along with changes in the vegetation dynamics, within an integrated system, has been increasing. In this paper, some numerical schemes and a higher resolution soil texture dataset were employed to improve the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM). Using eddy covariance-based measurements, we then tested the standard version of the SDGVM and the modified version of the SDGVM. Detailed observations of daily carbon and water fluxes made at the upland oak forest on the Walker Branch Watershed in Tennessee, USA offered a unique opportunity for these comparisons. The results revealed that the modified version of the SDGVM did a reasonable job of simulating the carbon and water flux and the variation of soil water content (SWC). However, at the end of the growing season, it failed to simulate the effect of the limitations on the soil respiration dynamics and as a result underestimated this respiration. It was also noted that the modified version overestimated the increase in the SWC following summer rainfall, which was attributed to an inadequate representation of the ground water and thermal cycle.

  8. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-01-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

  9. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  10. Natural and human-induced terrestrial water storage change: A global analysis using hydrological models and GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felfelani, Farshid; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Pokhrel, Yadu N.

    2017-10-01

    Hydrological models and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have been widely used to study the variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over large regions. However, both GRACE products and model results suffer from inherent uncertainties, calling for the need to make a combined use of GRACE and models to examine the variations in total TWS and their individual components, especially in relation to natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle. In this study, we use the results from two state-of-the-art hydrological models and different GRACE spherical harmonic products to examine the variations in TWS and its individual components, and to attribute the changes to natural and human-induced factors over large global river basins. Analysis of the spatial patterns of the long-term trend in TWS from the two models and GRACE suggests that both models capture the GRACE-measured direction of change, but differ from GRACE as well as each other in terms of the magnitude over different regions. A detailed analysis of the seasonal cycle of TWS variations over 30 river basins shows notable differences not only between models and GRACE but also among different GRACE products and between the two models. Further, it is found that while one model performs well in highly-managed river basins, it fails to reproduce the GRACE-observed signal in snow-dominated regions, and vice versa. The isolation of natural and human-induced changes in TWS in some of the managed basins reveals a consistently declining TWS trend during 2002-2010, however; significant differences are again obvious both between GRACE and models and among different GRACE products and models. Results from the decomposition of the TWS signal into the general trend and seasonality indicate that both models do not adequately capture both the trend and seasonality in the managed or snow-dominated basins implying that the TWS variations from a

  11. Global, continental and regional water balance estimates from HYPE catchment modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arheimer, Berit; Andersson, Jafet; Crochemore, Louise; Donnelly, Chantal; Gustafsson, David; Hasan, Abdoulghani; Isberg, Kristina; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Pimentel, Rafael; Pineda, Luis

    2017-04-01

    In the past, catchment modelling mainly focused on simulating the lumped hydrological cycle at local to regional domains with high precision in a specific point of a river. Today, the level of maturity in hydrological process descriptions, input data and methods for parameter constraints makes it possible to apply these models also for multi-basins over large domains, still using the catchment modellers approach with high demands on agreement with observed data. HYPE is a process-oriented, semi-distributed and open-source model concept that is developed and used operationally in Sweden since a decade. Its finest calculation unit is hydrological response units (HRUs) in a catchment and these are assumed to give the same rainfall-runoff response. HRUs are normally made up of similar land cover and management, combined with soil type or elevation. Water divides are retrieved from topography and calculations are integrated for catchments, which can be of different spatial resolution and are coupled along the river network. In each catchment, HYPE calculates the water balance of a given time-step separately for various hydrological storages, such glaciers, active soil, groundwater, river channels, wetlands, floodplains, and lakes. The model is calibrated in a step-wise manner (following the water path-ways) against various sources additional data sources, including in-situ observations, Earth Observation products, soft information and expert judgements (Arheimer et al., 2012; Donnelly et al, 2016; Pechlivanidis and Arheimer 2015). Both the HYPE code and the model set-ups (i.e. input data and parameter values) are frequently released in new versions as they are continuously improved and updated. This presentation will show the results of aggregated water-balance components over large domains, such as the Arctic basin, the European continent, the Indian subcontinent and the Niger River basin. These can easily be compared to results from other kind of large-scale modelling

  12. Travelling models of participation: Global ideas and local translations of water management in Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schnegg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, water management in Namibia has profoundly changed. Beginning in the 1990s the Namibian state has incrementally turned ownership of and the responsibility for its rural water supply to local user groups. While the state withdrew from managing resources directly, it continued to circumscribe the ways in which local communities should govern them. In so doing, a “new commons” was created. Inclusive participation became the leitmotif of the new management scheme and in particular the participation of women was a major political and societal goal. In this article, we use the notion of travelling models as a theoretical guide to explore how the idea of participation emerged in international development discourses and how it was then translated through national legislation into the local context. The results of the analysis show that more than 20 years after the formulation of international conventions the average participation of women in local water committees remains low. However, older women do manage the funds associated with water and thus occupy one of the most important functions. Our explanation takes the wider social and cultural field into account and shows that gender and generational roles provide elder women with autonomy and authority which prepare their ways into these new official roles. We conclude by considering whether and how the travelling model of participation has been changing local social structures in general and the role of elder women in particular.

  13. CORAL: QSPR model of water solubility based on local and global SMILES attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, Andrey A; Toropova, Alla P; Benfenati, Emilio; Gini, Giuseppina; Leszczynska, Danuta; Leszczynski, Jerzy

    2013-01-01

    Water solubility is an important characteristic of a chemical in many aspects. However experimental definition of the endpoint for all substances is impossible. In this study quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs) for negative logarithm of water solubility-logS (mol L(-1)) are built up for five random splits into the sub-training set (≈55%), the calibration set (≈25%), and the test set (≈20%). Simplified molecular input-line entry system (SMILES) is used as the representation of the molecular structure. Optimal SMILES-based descriptors are calculated by means of the Monte Carlo method using the CORAL software (http://www.insilico.eu/coral). These one-variable models for water solubility are characterized by the following average values of the statistical characteristics: n(sub_train)=725-763; n(calib)=312-343; n(test)=231-261; r(sub_train)(2)=0.9211±0.0028; r(calib)(2)=0.9555±0.0045; r(test)(2)=0.9365±0.0073; s(sub_train)=0.561±0.0086; s(calib)=0.453±0.0209; s(test)=0.520±0.0205. Thus, the reproducibility of statistical quality of suggested models for water solubility confirmed for five various splits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schellekens

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979–2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution. The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i snow-dominated regions and (ii tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr−1 (334 kg m−2 yr−1, while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m−2 yr−1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu, and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

  15. A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; van Dijk, Albert; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Minvielle, Marie; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Decharme, Bertrand; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Peßenteiner, Stefanie; van Beek, Rens; Polcher, Jan; Beck, Hylke; Orth, René; Calton, Ben; Burke, Sophia; Dorigo, Wouter; Weedon, Graham P.

    2017-07-01

    The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979-2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr-1 (334 kg m-2 yr-1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m-2 yr-1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

  16. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  17. Fresh water goes global

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vörösmarty, C.J.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Bunn, S.E.; Conway, D.; Gupta, J.

    2015-01-01

    Water management is a central responsibility of civil society. Major questions persist regarding practice, policy, and the underlying evidence and methods to inform both. Over the next 3 weeks, Science presents essays invited to debate key issues in freshwater research and management. This week: loc

  18. Global sensitivity analysis for model-based prediction of oxidative micropollutant transformation during drinking water treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Marc B; Gujer, Willi; von Gunten, Urs

    2009-03-01

    This study quantifies the uncertainty involved in predicting micropollutant oxidation during drinking water ozonation in a pilot plant reactor. The analysis is conducted for geosmin, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), isopropylmethoxypyrazine (IPMP), bezafibrate, beta-cyclocitral and ciprofloxazin. These compounds are representative for a wide range of substances with second order rate constants between 0.1 and 1.9x10(4)M(-1)s(-1) for the reaction with ozone and between 2x10(9) and 8x10(9)M(-1)s(-1) for the reaction with OH-radicals. Uncertainty ranges are derived for second order rate constants, hydraulic parameters, flow- and ozone concentration data, and water characteristic parameters. The uncertain model factors are propagated via Monte Carlo simulation and the resulting probability distributions of the relative residual micropollutant concentrations are assessed. The importance of factors in determining model output variance is quantified using Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST). For substances that react slowly with ozone (MTBE, IPMP, geosmin) the water characteristic R(ct)-value (ratio of ozone- to OH-radical concentration) is the most influential factor explaining 80% of the output variance. In the case of bezafibrate the R(ct)-value and the second order rate constant for the reaction with ozone each contribute about 30% to the output variance. For beta-cyclocitral and ciprofloxazin (fast reacting with ozone) the second order rate constant for the reaction with ozone and the hydraulic model structure become the dominating sources of uncertainty.

  19. Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard A. Ferrare; David D. Turner

    2011-09-01

    Project goals: (1) Use the routine surface and airborne measurements at the ARM SGP site, and the routine surface measurements at the NSA site, to continue our evaluations of model aerosol simulations; (2) Determine the degree to which the Raman lidar measurements of water vapor and aerosol scattering and extinction can be used to remotely characterize the aerosol humidification factor; (3) Use the high temporal resolution CARL data to examine how aerosol properties vary near clouds; and (4) Use the high temporal resolution CARL and Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) data to quantify entrainment in optically thin continental cumulus clouds.

  20. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data

  1. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data assimila

  2. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  3. Sensitivity of simulated global-scale freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure, human water use and calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, H.; Eisner, S.; Franz, D.; Wattenbach, M.; Portmann, F. T.; Flörke, M.; Döll, P.

    2014-09-01

    Global-scale assessments of freshwater fluxes and storages by hydrological models under historic climate conditions are subject to a variety of uncertainties. Using the global hydrological model WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) 2.2, we investigated the sensitivity of simulated freshwater fluxes and water storage variations to five major sources of uncertainty: climate forcing, land cover input, model structure/refinements, consideration of human water use and calibration (or no calibration) against observed mean river discharge. In a modeling experiment, five variants of the standard version of WaterGAP 2.2 were generated that differed from the standard version only regarding the investigated source of uncertainty. The basin-specific calibration approach for WaterGAP was found to have the largest effect on grid cell fluxes as well as on global AET (actual evapotranspiration) and discharge into oceans for the period 1971-2000. Regarding grid cell fluxes, climate forcing ranks second before land cover input. Global water storage trends are most sensitive to model refinements (mainly modeling of groundwater depletion) and consideration of human water use. The best fit to observed time series of monthly river discharge or discharge seasonality is obtained with the standard WaterGAP 2.2 model version which is calibrated and driven by daily reanalysis-based WFD/WFDEI (combination of Watch Forcing Data based on ERA40 and Watch Forcing Data based on ERA-Interim) climate data. Discharge computed by a calibrated model version using monthly CRU TS (Climate Research Unit time-series) 3.2 and GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Center) v6 climate input reduced the fit to observed discharge for most stations. Taking into account uncertainties of climate and land cover data, global 1971-2000 discharge into oceans and inland sinks ranges between 40 000 and 42 000 km3 yr-1. Global actual evapotranspiration, with 70 000 km3 yr-1, is rather unaffected by climate

  4. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vliet, M. T H; van Beek, L. P H; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F P

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding

  5. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    We investigate antecedents and contingencies of location configurations supporting global delivery models (GDMs) in global outsourcing. GDMs are a new form of IT-enabled client-specific investment promoting services provision integration with clients by exploiting client proximity and time......-zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...... commoditized. Findings imply that coordination across time zones increasingly affects international operations in business-to-business and born-global industries....

  6. Modeling global water use for the 21st century : The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Van Vliet, M. T H; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and wate

  7. Where the water is: Mapping global drivers of water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauman, K. A.; Richter, B.; Foley, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Water scarcity, and its implications for human and ecosystem wellbeing, is well documented. To mitigate activities that exacerbate water scarcity, and to adapt to scarcity when it is unavoidable, we must understand the drivers of water scarcity. Based on data from the new WaterGAP3 model, we analyze patterns of water stress and water use in watersheds globally. Our data include information on multi-sectoral water withdrawal and consumption as well as irrigation data for individual crops. We assess monthly water use and availability as well as annual trends. Of 11,050 basins, about 2.5% are over-extended, with higher levels of water consumption than available water. In most of these basins, irrigated agriculture dominates water withdrawals. In the majority of basins (92%), less than 20% of available water is consumed by human activity. This leaves just 5.5% of basins potentially stressed; they may not be experiencing water limitation at present, but they are highly susceptible. We consider both water availability (supply) and water withdrawals and consumption (demand) as drivers of water stress, finding that over-extended basins are both dry, with about one fifth of the water availability of the lowest stress basins, and heavy water consumers, with more than double the water consumption of moderate-stress basins. Identifying basins likely to experience water stress, and strategies and characteristics of those that are not, will help put all basins on a path toward water sustainability.

  8. Solicited abstract: Global hydrological modeling and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chong-Yu

    2010-05-01

    The origins of rainfall-runoff modeling in the broad sense can be found in the middle of the 19th century arising in response to three types of engineering problems: (1) urban sewer design, (2) land reclamation drainage systems design, and (3) reservoir spillway design. Since then numerous empirical, conceptual and physically-based models are developed including event based models using unit hydrograph concept, Nash's linear reservoir models, HBV model, TOPMODEL, SHE model, etc. From the late 1980s, the evolution of global and continental-scale hydrology has placed new demands on hydrologic modellers. The macro-scale hydrological (global and regional scale) models were developed on the basis of the following motivations (Arenll, 1999). First, for a variety of operational and planning purposes, water resource managers responsible for large regions need to estimate the spatial variability of resources over large areas, at a spatial resolution finer than can be provided by observed data alone. Second, hydrologists and water managers are interested in the effects of land-use and climate variability and change over a large geographic domain. Third, there is an increasing need of using hydrologic models as a base to estimate point and non-point sources of pollution loading to streams. Fourth, hydrologists and atmospheric modellers have perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in regional and global climate models, and developed global hydrological models to overcome the weaknesses of global climate models. Considerable progress in the development and application of global hydrological models has been achieved to date, however, large uncertainties still exist considering the model structure including large scale flow routing, parameterization, input data, etc. This presentation will focus on the global hydrological models, and the discussion includes (1) types of global hydrological models, (2) procedure of global hydrological model development

  9. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vliet, M. T H; van Beek, L. P H; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F P

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding o

  10. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Beek, van L.P.H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved

  11. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Beek, van L.P.H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understandin

  12. Global energy consumption for direct water use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Miralles, D. G.; Teuling, R.; He, Y.; Niyogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Despite significant efforts to quantify the mutual inter-dependence of the water and energy sectors, global energy for water (EFW) remains poorly understood, resulting in biases in energy accounting that directly affect water and energy management and policy. We firstly evaluate the global energy consumption for direct water use from 1973 to 2012 with sectoral, regional and process-level details. Over the 40-year period, we detected multiple shifts in EFW by county and region. For example, we find that India, the Middle East and China have surpassed the United States as the three largest consumers of EFW since 2003, mostly because of rapid growth in groundwater-based irrigation, desalination, and industrial and municipal water use, respectively. Globally, EFW accounts for 1-3% of total primary energy consumption in 2010, of which 52% is surface water, 36% is groundwater, and 12% is non-fresh water. The sectoral allocation of EFW includes municipal (45%), industrial (29%), and agricultural use (26%), and process-level contributions are from source/conveyance (41%), water purification (19%), water distribution (13%) and wastewater treatment (22%). Our evaluation suggests that the EFW may increase in importance in the future due to growth in population and income, and depletion of surface and shallow aquifer water resources in water-scarce regions. We are incorporating this element into an integrated assessment model (IAM) and linking it back to energy balance within that IAM. By doing this, we will then explore the impacts of EFW on the global energy market (e.g., changes in the share of groundwater use and desalination), and the uncertainty of future EFW under different shared social pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, and consequences on the emission of greenhouse gases as well. We expect these EFW induced impacts will be considerable, and will then have significant implications for adaptive management and policy making.

  13. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    We investigate antecedents and contingencies of location configurations supporting global delivery models (GDMs) in global outsourcing. GDMs are a new form of IT-enabled client-specific investment promoting services provision integration with clients by exploiting client proximity and time......-zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  14. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    Global delivery models (GDMs) are transforming the global IT and business process outsourcing industry. GDMs are a new form of client-specific investment promoting service integration with clients by combining client proximity with time-zone spread for 24/7 service operations. We investigate...... antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  15. SimDelta global: Towards a standardised interactive model for water infrastructure development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijcken, T.; Christopher, D.K.

    2013-01-01

    The research project ‘SimDelta’ builds on novel internet technology to support the development of the Rhine-Meuse delta water infrastructure. It has three goals: education, organisation of research and design studies, and stakeholder polling. A current question is how the SimDelta technology could b

  16. WaterWorld, a spatial hydrological model applied at scales from local to global: key challenges to local application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Sophia; Mulligan, Mark

    2017-04-01

    WaterWorld is a widely used spatial hydrological policy support system. The last user census indicates regular use by 1029 institutions across 141 countries. A key feature of WaterWorld since 2001 is that it comes pre-loaded with all of the required data for simulation anywhere in the world at a 1km or 1 ha resolution. This means that it can be easily used, without specialist technical ability, to examine baseline hydrology and the impacts of scenarios for change or management interventions to support policy formulation, hence its labelling as a policy support system. WaterWorld is parameterised by an extensive global gridded database of more than 600 variables, developed from many sources, since 1998, the so-called simTerra database. All of these data are available globally at 1km resolution and some variables (terrain, land cover, urban areas, water bodies) are available globally at 1ha resolution. If users have access to better data than is pre-loaded, they can upload their own data. WaterWorld is generally applied at the national or basin scale at 1km resolution, or locally (for areas of project we have used WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data) at 1km resolution to provide an alternative input to WaterWorld's preloaded climate data. Here we examine the impacts of that on key hydrological outputs: water balance, water quality and outline the remaining challenges of using datasets like these for local scale application.

  17. A global finite-element shallow-water model supporting continuous and discontinuous elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Ullrich

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel nodal finite element method for either continuous and discontinuous elements, as applied to the 2-D shallow-water equations on the cubed-sphere. The cornerstone of this method is the construction of a robust derivative operator which can be applied to compute discrete derivatives even over a discontinuous function space. A key advantage of the robust derivative is that it can be applied to partial differential equations in either conservative or non-conservative form. However, it is also shown that discontinuous penalization is required to recover the correct order of accuracy for discontinuous elements. Two versions with discontinuous elements are examined, using either the g1 and g2 flux correction function for distribution of boundary fluxes and penalty across nodal points. Scalar and vector hyperviscosity operators valid for both continuous and discontinuous elements are also derived for stabilization and removal of grid-scale noise. This method is validated using three standard shallow-water test cases, including geostrophically balanced flow, a mountain-induced Rossby wave train and a barotropic instability. The results show that although the discontinuous basis requires a smaller time step size than that required for continuous elements, the method exhibits better stability and accuracy properties in the absence of hyperviscosity.

  18. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water d

  19. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

  20. Present and future water resources in India: Insights from satellite remote sensing and a dynamic global vegetation model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S J Murray

    2013-02-01

    India is a country of particular interest with regard to its future water resources, as it is expected to undergo continued rapid population growth while also being especially sensitive to climate change. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM) is used here to simulate present and future runoff in India using ClimGen pattern-scaled scenarios of 1°, 2° and 4°C temperature increase (scaled to 2050) forced by six general circulation models (GCMs). As is the case with many DGVMs, groundwater storage is not simulated by LPX, so in order to form a more comprehensive understanding of water resources, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite estimates for north-west India are incorporated into this study and compared to LPX runoff simulations. Runoff is simulated to have increased slightly (1.5 mm/year) in this region during 2002–2006, while groundwater extractions appear to have been made at rates of 40 ± 10 mm/year. North-west India is simulated to experience considerable increases in runoff by 2070–2099, with a mean change of 189 mm/year for 2°C climate change (although the range of model results, 247 mm/year, demonstrates high uncertainty among GCMs). Precipitation is shown to have an important bearing on runoff generation, while the degree of warming is shown to affect the magnitude of future runoff. This may subsequently influence the longevity of the local groundwater resource. However, at recent rates of depletion and in view of expected population growth, the long-term sustainability of groundwater reserves in north-west India is in doubt.

  1. Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Chen, Junye

    2010-01-01

    Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

  2. A new derivation of the shallow water equations in geographical coordinates and their application to the global barotropic ocean model (the DEBOT model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einšpigel, David; Martinec, Zdeněk

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a new global barotropic ocean model-the DEBOT model. The model is based on the shallow water equations which we newly express in geographical coordinates. The derivation includes the boundary conditions and the Reynolds tensor in a form used commonly in oceanography. The numerical model employs finite differences on an Arakawa-C grid in space and a generalized forward-backward scheme in time with a combined third-order Adams-Bashforth and fourth-order Adams-Moulton step. The validity of the model is demonstrated by the tests based on conservation integral invariants. As a practical application, we present ocean circulation simulations generated by the lunisolar tidal force.

  3. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  4. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  5. Water Vapor Radiometer-Global Positioning System Comparison Measurements and Calibration of the 20 to 32 Gigahertz Tropospheric Water Vapor Absorption Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keihm, S. J.; Bar-Sever, Y.; Liljegren, J.

    2000-10-01

    Collocated measurements of opacity (from water vapor radiometer (WVR) brightness temperatures) and wet path delay (from ground-based tracking of Global Positions System (GPS) satellites) are used to constrain the model of atmospheric water vapor absorption in the 20 to 32 GHz band. A differential approach is presented in which the slope of opacity-versus-wet delay data is used as the absorption model constraint. This technique minimizes the effects of radiometric calibration errors and oxygen model uncertainties in the derivation of a best-fit vapor absorption model. A total of approximately 5 months of data were obtained from two experiment sites. At the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site near Lamont, Oklahoma, three independent WVRs provided near-continuous opacity measurements over the interval from July through September 1998. At NASA's Goldstone tracking station in the California desert, two WVRs obtained opacity data over the September through October 1997 interval. At both sites, a GPS receiver and surface barometer obtained the data required for deriving the zenith wet delays over the same time frames. Measured values of the opacity-versus-wet delay slope parameter were obtained at four WVR frequencies (20.7, 22.2, 23.8, and 31.4 GHz) and compared with predictions of three candidate absorption models referenced in the recent literature. With one exception, all three models provide agreement within approximately 5 percent of the opacity-versus-wet delay slope measurements at all WVR frequencies at both sites. One model provides agreement for all channels at both sites to the 2 to 3 percent level. This accuracy is sufficient to meet the requirements of the tropospheric calibration system now being deployed at Goldstone to support the Cassini Gravitational Wave Experiment.

  6. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...... that service providers who differentiate based on speed of service delivery are likely to set up GDM structures, and that these structures positively affect deal renewal rates if speed is important for clients in selecting vendors. Findings imply that, as co-location becomes less necessary for providing...... digitalized services, time zones increasingly affect....

  7. The Global Politics of Water Grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, J.; Mehta, L.; Veldwisch, G.J.A.

    2013-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land management

  8. The global politics of water grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, Jennifer; Mehta, Lyla; Veldwisch, Gert Jan

    2016-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land managem

  9. The Global Politics of Water Grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, J.; Mehta, L.; Veldwisch, G.J.A.

    2013-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land management

  10. The global politics of water grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, Jennifer; Mehta, Lyla; Veldwisch, Gert Jan

    2016-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land managem

  11. Influence of LGM boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of experiments was conducted using a water isotope tracers-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, CAM3.0-Iso, by changing the individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea-surface temperature each at a time to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. In addition, a combined simulation with all the boundary conditions being set to LGM values was carried out. A pre-industrial (PI simulation with boundary conditions taken according to the PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project protocol was performed as the control experiment. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land-ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were highly correlated with the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were found to be responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  12. Water Grabbing analysis at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M.; Saviori, A.; D'Odorico, P.

    2012-12-01

    "Land grabbing" is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign governments and corporations, a phenomenon that has greatly intensified over the last few years as a result of the increase in food prices and biofuel demand. Land grabbing is inherently associated with an appropriation of freshwater resources that has never been investigated before. Here we provide a global assessment of the total grabbed land and water resources. Using process-based agro-hydrological models we estimate the rates of freshwater grabbing worldwide. We find that this phenomenon is occurring at alarming rates in all continents except Antarctica. The per capita volume of grabbed water often exceeds the water requirements for a balanced diet and would be sufficient to abate malnourishment in the grabbed countries. High rates of water grabbing are often associated with deforestation and the increase in water withdrawals for irrigation.

  13. Global Cloud Liquid Water Path Simulations(.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemus, Lilia; Rikus, Lawrie; Martin, C.; Platt, R.

    1997-01-01

    A new parameterization of cloud liquid water and ice content has been included in the Bureau of Meteorology Global Assimilation and Prediction System. The cloud liquid water content is derived from the mean cloud temperatures in the model using an empirical relationship based on observations. The results from perpetual January and July simulations are presented and show that the total cloud water path steadily decreases toward high latitudes, with two relative maxima at midlatitudes and a peak at low latitudes. To validate the scheme, the simulated fields need to be processed to produce liquid water paths that can be directly compared with the corresponding field derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. This requires the identification of cloud ice water content within the parameterization and a prescription to account for the treatment of strongly precipitating subgrid-scale cloud. The resultant cloud liquid water paths agree qualitatively with the SSM/I data but show some systematic errors that are attributed to corresponding errors in the model's simulation of cloud amounts. Given that a more quantitative validation requires substantial improvement in the model's diagnostic cloud scheme, the comparison with the SSM/I data indicates that the cloud water path, derived from the cloud liquid water content parameterization introduced in this paper, is consistent with the observations and can be usefully incorporated in the prediction system.

  14. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  15. Assessment of the contamination of drinking water supply wells by pesticides from surface water resources using a finite element reactive transport model and global sensitivity analysis techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguerra, Flavio; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Binning, Philip John

    2013-01-01

    fluorescein dye injected in a river is monitored at nearby drinking water wells. Three compounds were considered: an older pesticide MCPP (Mecoprop) which is mobile and relatively persistent, glyphosate (Roundup), a newer biodegradable and strongly sorbing pesticide, and its degradation product AMPA. Global...... contamination from surface water. This study suggests that it is unlikely that glyphosate in streams can pose a threat to drinking water wells, while MCPP in surface water can represent a risk: MCPP concentration at the drinking water well can be up to 7% of surface water concentration in confined aquifers...... and up to 10% in unconfined aquifers. Thus, the presence of confining clay aquitards may not prevent contamination of drinking water wells by persistent compounds in surface water. Results are consistent with data on pesticide occurrence in Denmark where pesticides are found at higher concentrations...

  16. Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

  17. Rooting depths regulate the global water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Fan, Ying

    2017-04-01

    Ecosystem productivity and evapotranspiration fluxes are fundamental regulators of the global carbon and water cycles. Where and how much plants grow is largely determined by atmospheric conditions and soil water availability. It is the reliance of ecosystems on soil water that links their fate tightly to precipitation and groundwater reach. Here, we explore the controls on plant root uptake imposed by climate at the large scale and by groundwater accessibility at the local drainage scale, aiming to untangle the spatial and temporal global patterns of rain-fed and groundwater-fed ecosystems. To this end, we use observed atmospheric and productivity conditions to model the seasonal evolution of root uptake and soil moisture profiles and their coupling to the water table, with a global groundwater-soil-vegetation framework at the 1km resolution. Results indicate highly variable uptake-depth across seasonal and local hydrologic gradients, and a far more common occurrence of deep (>5m) uptake than previous thought. Implications to future environmental change are briefly discussed.

  18. Compilation and Validation of SAR and Optical Data Products for a Complete and Global Map of Inland/Ocean Water Tailored to the Climate Modeling Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Lamarche

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate maps of surface water extent are of paramount importance for water management, satellite data processing and climate modeling. Several maps of water bodies based on remote sensing data have been released during the last decade. Nonetheless, none has a truly (90 ∘ N/90 ∘ S global coverage while being thoroughly validated. This paper describes a global, spatially-complete (void-free and accurate mask of inland/ocean water for the 2000–2012 period, built in the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI. This map results from the synergistic combination of multiple individual SAR and optical water body and auxiliary datasets. A key aspect of this work is the original and rigorous stratified random sampling designed for the quality assessment of binary classifications where one class is marginally distributed. Input and consolidated products were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively against a reference validation database of 2110 samples spread throughout the globe. Using all samples, overall accuracy was always very high among all products, between 98 % and 100 % . The CCI global map of open water bodies provided the best water class representation (F-score of 89 % compared to its constitutive inputs. When focusing on the challenging areas for water bodies’ mapping, such as shorelines, lakes and river banks, all products yielded substantially lower accuracy figures with overall accuracies ranging between 74 % and 89 % . The inland water area of the CCI global map of open water bodies was estimated to be 3.17 million km 2 ± 0.24 million km 2 . The dataset is freely available through the ESA CCI Land Cover viewer.

  19. Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

    2015-12-01

    A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

  20. Wind extraction potential from ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of stratospheric ozone using a global shallow water model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Allen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of extracting wind information from stratospheric ozone observations is tested using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF data assimilation (DA and a global shallow water model that includes advection of an ozone-like tracer. Simulated observations are created from a truth run (TR that resembles the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere with a polar vortex disturbed by planetary-scale wave forcing. Ozone observations mimic sampling of a polar-orbiting satellite, while geopotential height observations are randomly placed in space and time. EnKF experiments are performed assimilating ozone, height, or both over a 10 day period. The DA is also implemented using two different pairs of flow variables: zonal and meridional wind (EnKF-uv and streamfunction and velocity potential (EnKF-ψ χ. Each experiment is tuned for optimal localization length, while the ensemble spread is adaptively inflated using the TR. The experiments are evaluated using the maximum wind extraction potential (WEP. Ozone-only assimilation improves winds (WEP = 46% for EnKF-uv, and 58% for EnKF-ψ χ, but suffers from spurious gravity wave generation. Application of nonlinear normal mode initialization (NMI greatly reduces the unwanted imbalance and increases the WEP for EnKF-uv (84% and EnKF-ψ χ (81%. Assimilation of only height observations also improved the winds (WEP = 59% for EnKF-uv, and 67% for EnKF-ψ χ, with much less imbalance compared to the ozone experiment. The assimilation of both height and ozone performed the best, with WEP increasing to ~ 87% (~ 90% with NMI for both EnKF-uv and EnKF-ψ χ, demonstrating that wind extraction from ozone assimilation can be beneficial even in a data-rich environment. Ozone assimilation particularly improves the tropical winds, which are not well constrained by height observations due to lack of geostrophy.

  1. Wind extraction potential from ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of stratospheric ozone using a global shallow water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, D. R.; Hoppel, K. W.; Kuhl, D. D.

    2015-05-01

    The feasibility of extracting wind information from stratospheric ozone observations is tested using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) and a global shallow water model that includes advection of an ozone-like tracer. Simulated observations are created from a truth run (TR) that resembles the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere with a polar vortex disturbed by planetary-scale wave forcing. Ozone observations mimic sampling of a polar-orbiting satellite, while geopotential height observations are randomly placed in space and time. EnKF experiments are performed assimilating ozone, height, or both, over a 10-day period. The DA is also implemented using two different pairs of flow variables: zonal and meridional wind (EnKF-uv) and stream function and velocity potential (EnKF-ψχ). Each experiment is tuned for optimal localization length, while the ensemble spread is adaptively inflated using the TR. The experiments are evaluated using the maximum wind extraction potential (WEP). Ozone only assimilation improves winds (WEP = 46% for EnKF-uv, and 58% for EnKF-ψχ), but suffers from spurious gravity wave generation. Application of nonlinear normal mode initialization (NMI) greatly reduces the unwanted imbalance and increases the WEP for EnKF-uv (84%) and EnKF-ψχ (81%). Assimilation of only height observations also improved the winds (WEP = 60% for EnKF-uv, and 69% for EnKF-ψχ), with much less imbalance compared to the ozone experiment. The assimilation of both height and ozone performed the best, with WEP increasing to ~87% (~90% with NMI) for both EnKF-uv and EnKF-ψχ, demonstrating that wind extraction from ozone assimilation can be beneficial even in a data-rich environment. Ozone assimilation particularly improves the tropical winds, which are not well constrained by height observations due to lack of geostrophy.

  2. Space-based Observation System Simulation Experiments for the Global Water Cycle: Information Tradeoffs, Model Diagnostics, and Exascale Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.

    2011-12-01

    Global scale issues such as population growth, changing land-use, and climate change place our natural resources at the center of focus for a broad range of interdependent science, engineering, and policy problems. Our ability to mitigate and adapt to the accelerating rate of environmental change is critically dependent on our ability to observe and predict the natural, built, and social systems that define sustainability at the global scale. Despite the risks and challenges posed by global change, we are faced with critical risks to our ability to maintain and improve long term space-based observations of these changes. Despite consensus agreement on the critical importance of space-based Earth science, the fundamental challenge remains: How should we manage the severe tradeoffs and design challenges posed by maximizing the value of existing and proposed spaced-based Earth observation systems? Addressing this question requires transformative innovations in the design and management of spaced-based Earth observation systems that effectively take advantage of massively parallel computing architectures to enable the discovery and exploitation of critical mission tradeoffs using high-resolution space-based observation system simulation events (OSSEs) that simulate the global water cycle data that would result from sensing innovations and evaluates their merit with carefully constructed prediction and management benchmarks.

  3. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2012-04-17

    Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

  4. Global modelling of the early Martian climate under a denser CO2 atmosphere: Water cycle and ice evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Wordsworth, R; Millour, E; Head, J; Madeleine, J -B; Charnay, B

    2012-01-01

    We discuss 3D global simulations of the early Martian climate that we have performed assuming a faint young Sun and denser CO2 atmosphere. We include a self-consistent representation of the water cycle, with atmosphere-surface interactions, atmospheric transport, and the radiative effects of CO2 and H2O gas and clouds taken into account. We find that for atmospheric pressures greater than a fraction of a bar, the adiabatic cooling effect causes temperatures in the southern highland valley network regions to fall significantly below the global average. Long-term climate evolution simulations indicate that in these circumstances, water ice is transported to the highlands from low-lying regions for a wide range of orbital obliquities, regardless of the extent of the Tharsis bulge. In addition, an extended water ice cap forms on the southern pole, approximately corresponding to the location of the Noachian/Hesperian era Dorsa Argentea Formation. Even for a multiple-bar CO2 atmosphere, conditions are too cold to a...

  5. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  6. Infectious Disinfection: "Exploring Global Water Quality"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahaya, Evans; Tippins, Deborah J.; Mueller, Michael P.; Thomson, Norman

    2009-01-01

    Learning about the water situation in other regions of the world and the devastating effects of floods on drinking water helps students study science while learning about global water quality. This article provides science activities focused on developing cultural awareness and understanding how local water resources are integrally linked to the…

  7. Infectious Disinfection: "Exploring Global Water Quality"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahaya, Evans; Tippins, Deborah J.; Mueller, Michael P.; Thomson, Norman

    2009-01-01

    Learning about the water situation in other regions of the world and the devastating effects of floods on drinking water helps students study science while learning about global water quality. This article provides science activities focused on developing cultural awareness and understanding how local water resources are integrally linked to the…

  8. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  9. Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-01-01

    The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

  10. Baroclinic stabilization effect of the Atlantic-Arctic water exchange simulated by the eddy-permitting ocean model and global atmosphere-ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, Sergey; Bagno, Alexey; Gritsun, Andrey; Gusev, Anatoly

    2017-04-01

    Numerical experiments were performed with the global atmosphere-ocean model INMCM5 (for version of the international project CMIP6, resolution for atmosphere is 2°x1.5°, 21 level) and with the three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM). Spatial resolution of the INMCM5 oceanic component is 0.5°x0.25°. Both models have 40 s-levels in ocean. Previously, the simulations were carried out for INMCM5 to generate climatic system stable state. Then model was run for 180 years. In the experiment with INMOM, CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used. As the goal for comparing results of two these numerical models, we selected evolution of the density and velocity anomalies in the 0-300m active ocean layer near Fram Strait in the Greenland Sea, where oceanic cyclonic circulation influences Atlantic-Arctic water exchange. Anomalies were count without climatic seasonal cycle for time scales smaller than 30 years. We use Singular Value Decomposition analysis (SVD) for density-velocity anomalies with time lag from minus one to six months. Both models perform identical stable physical result. They reveal that changes of heat and salt transports by West Spitsbergen and East Greenland currents, caused by atmospheric forcing, produce the baroclinic modes of velocity anomalies in 0-300m layer, thereby stabilizing ocean response on the atmospheric forcing, which stimulates keeping water exchange between the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean at the certain climatological level. The first SVD-mode of density-velocity anomalies is responsible for the cyclonic circulation variability. The second and third SVD-modes stabilize existing ocean circulation by the anticyclonic vorticity generation. The second and third SVD-modes give 35% of the input to the total dispersion of density anomalies and 16-18% of the

  11. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

  12. Structure and Controls of the Global Virtual Water Trade Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suweis, S. S.

    2011-12-01

    Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the amount of water used to produce a given commodity. We build, analyze and model the network describing the transfer of virtual water between world nations for staple food products. We find that all the key features of the network are well described by a model, the fitness model, that reproduces both the topological and weighted properties of the global virtual water trade network, by assuming as sole controls each country's gross domestic product and yearly rainfall on agricultural areas. We capture and quantitatively describe the high degree of globalization of water trade and show that a small group of nations play a key role in the connectivity of the network and in the global redistribution of virtual water. Finally, we illustrate examples of prediction of the structure of the network under future political, economic and climatic scenarios, suggesting that the crucial importance of the countries that trade large volumes of water will be strengthened. Our results show the importance of incorporating a network framework in the study of virtual water trades and provide a model to study the structure and resilience of the GVWTN under future scenarios for social, economic and climate change.

  13. Regional inversion of GRACE data for continental water mass time-variations. Comparison with global hydrology models, classical spherical harmonics and "mascons" solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seoane, L.; Ramillien, G.; Frappart, F.; Biancale, R.; Gratton, S.; Bourgogne, S.

    2010-12-01

    Time series of 2°-by-2° constrained/unconstrained GRACE geoid solutions have been computed with a 10-day resolution by using a new regional method recently implemented at GRGS (Toulouse, France). This approach uses the dynamical orbit analysis of GRACE Level-1 measurements, and specially accurate along-track KBRR residuals to estimate the continental water mass changes over large geographical regions. For validation, our GRACE-derived regional maps are compared to: (1) the global hydrological model outputs (WGHM, LaD, NOAH), (2) the NASA "mascons" solutions based on spherical harmonics and (3) the global solutions produced by GRGS and CSR, GFZ, JPL filtered with different methodologies (Gaussian, destriped and smoothed, ICA). In this study, we focus on the annual time scale of water mass redistributions occuring in drainage basins like Amazon or Congo. Each 2°-averaged surface element is characterized by its seasonal amplitude and phase. Even if the all sources are expected to provide quite comparable results for the continental water cycle, we suspect the residual differences are from smoothing effects of the spatial constraints included in the "mascons" solutions and the underestimating the seasonal amplitudes by global hydrological models.

  14. Global distribution of outbreaks of water-associated infectious diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Water plays an important role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, which pose a great burden on global public health. However, the global distribution of these water-associated infectious diseases and underlying factors remain largely unexplored. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON, a global database including water-associated pathogens and diseases was developed. In this study, reported outbreak events associated with corresponding water-associated infectious diseases from 1991 to 2008 were extracted from the database. The location of each reported outbreak event was identified and geocoded into a GIS database. Also collected in the GIS database included geo-referenced socio-environmental information including population density (2000, annual accumulated temperature, surface water area, and average annual precipitation. Poisson models with Bayesian inference were developed to explore the association between these socio-environmental factors and distribution of the reported outbreak events. Based on model predictions a global relative risk map was generated. A total of 1,428 reported outbreak events were retrieved from the database. The analysis suggested that outbreaks of water-associated diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors. Population density is a significant risk factor for all categories of reported outbreaks of water-associated diseases; water-related diseases (e.g., vector-borne diseases are associated with accumulated temperature; water-washed diseases (e.g., conjunctivitis are inversely related to surface water area; both water-borne and water-related diseases are inversely related to average annual rainfall. Based on the model predictions, "hotspots" of risks for all categories of water-associated diseases were explored. CONCLUSIONS: At the global scale, water-associated infectious diseases are significantly correlated

  15. The future for global water assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harding, R.J.; Weedon, G.P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Clark, D.B.

    2014-01-01

    The global water cycle is a fundamental component of our climate and Earth system. Many, if not the majority, of the impacts of climate change are water related. We have an imperfect description and understanding of components of the water cycle. This arises from an incomplete observation of some of

  16. Modeling of global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, M. A.; Karlin, L. N.

    2012-04-01

    A model to assess a number of factors, such as total solar irradiance, albedo, greenhouse gases and water vapor, affecting climate change has been developed on the basis of Earth's radiation balance principle. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere was investigated. It's a common knowledge, that part of the incoming radiation is reflected into space from the atmosphere, land and water surfaces, and another part is absorbed by the Earth's surface. Some part of outdoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) and water vapor. Making use of the regression analysis a correlation between concentration of greenhouse gases, water vapor and global surface air temperature was obtained which, it is turn, made it possible to develop the proposed model. The model showed that even smallest fluctuations of total solar irradiance intensify both positive and negative feedback which give rise to considerable changes in global surface air temperature. The model was used both to reconstruct the global surface air temperature for the 1981-2005 period and to predict global surface air temperature until 2030. The reconstructions of global surface air temperature for 1981-2005 showed the models validity. The model makes it possible to assess contribution of the factors listed above in climate change.

  17. Global warming and water sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassardo Claudio

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Water is a primary element in the human diet and a necessary resource for the agriculture. In addition, industrial practices need a growing amount of water. Since human population is continuously growing at a quasi-exponential rate, water demand, for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses, is increasing too. However, considering that the water resources on the Earth are finite, even disregarding the potential threats due to the climate change, this situation appears as one of the biggest challenges of the current era. Actually, one-third of the world’s population is water-stressed, of which 12% severely: in these nations, a large portion of the population lives below the minimum threshold judged permissible for a decent life. In practice, almost every nation deals with problems related to water sustainability. In some countries, the water supply is ensured only thanks to the extraction of fossil water, which is a limited resource that will not last indefinitely. The impact on water quality has also dramatically increased. The scarcity of water resources is expected to spread to wider areas in the near future, mostly in developing countries, if the actual trends of development and population growth do not change. The rapid urbanizing rate will also create additional stress. Climate change can in turn alter both water supply and demand: increasing temperatures will reflect in increased evaporation and decreased stream flows. Rising seas could contaminate groundwater resources, and increasingly variable precipitation will likely mean more frequent high-intensity droughts and floods and less available rainfall in arid and semiarid regions. The effects of these changes will increase the natural variability of the climate, exacerbating the extreme climatic phenomena (drought and flood events, increasing the difficulty of managing water resources, especially in the most vulnerable regions, and affecting water availability even in regions that are

  18. Global Public Water Education: The World Water Monitoring Day Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya, Yoseph Negusse; Moyer, Edward H.

    2006-01-01

    Public awareness of the impending world water crisis is an important prerequisite to create a responsible citizenship capable of participating to improve world water management. In this context, the case of a unique global water education outreach exercise, World Water Monitoring Day of October 18, is presented. Started in 2002 in the United…

  19. Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

  20. Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Peter A.; Hartmann, Jens; Lauerwald, Ronny; Sobek, Sebastian; McDonald, Cory P.; Hoover, Mark; Butman, David; Striegl, Robert G.; Mayorga, Emilio; Humborg, Christoph; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Durr, Hans H.; Meybeck, Michel; Ciais, Philippe; Guth, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8   petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32  Pg C yr−1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr−1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

  1. Global and Regional Evaluation of Energy for Water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.; Davies, Evan; Miralles, Diego G.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; He, Yujie; Niyogi, Dev

    2016-09-06

    Despite significant effort to quantify the inter-dependence of the water and energy sectors, global requirements of energy for water (E4W) are still poorly understood, which may result in biases in projections and consequently in water and energy management and policy. This study estimates water-related energy consumption by water source, sector, and process, for 14 global regions from 1973 to 2012. Globally, E4W amounted to 10.2 ± 5 EJ of primary energy consumption in 2010, accounting for 1.2–3% of total global primary energy consumption, of which 58% pertains to surface water, 30% to groundwater, and 12% to non-fresh water, assuming median energy intensity levels. The sectoral E4W allocation includes municipal (45%), industrial (30%), and agricultural (25%), and main process-level contributions are from source/conveyance (39%), water purification (27%), water distribution (12%) and wastewater treatment (18%). While the USA was the largest E4W consumer from the 1970’s until the 2000’s, the largest consumers at present are the Middle East, India, and China, driven by rapid growth in desalination, groundwater-based irrigation, and industrial and municipal water use, respectively. The improved understanding of global E4W will enable enhanced consistency of both water and energy representations in integrated assessment models.

  2. Global and Regional Evaluation of Energy for Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H; Davies, Evan; Miralles, Diego G; Teuling, Adriaan J; He, Yujie; Niyogi, Dev

    2016-09-06

    Despite significant effort to quantify the interdependence of the water and energy sectors, global requirements of energy for water (E4W) are still poorly understood, which may result in biases in projections and consequently in water and energy management and policy. This study estimates water-related energy consumption by water source, sector, and process for 14 global regions from 1973 to 2012. Globally, E4W amounted to 10.2 EJ of primary energy consumption in 2010, accounting for 1.7%-2.7% of total global primary energy consumption, of which 58% pertains to fresh surface water, 30% to fresh groundwater, and 12% to nonfresh water, assuming median energy intensity levels. The sectoral E4W allocation includes municipal (45%), industrial (30%), and agricultural (25%), and main process-level contributions are from source/conveyance (39%), water purification (27%), water distribution (12%), and wastewater treatment (18%). While the United States was the largest E4W consumer from the 1970s until the 2000s, the largest consumers at present are the Middle East, India, and China, driven by rapid growth in desalination, groundwater-based irrigation, and industrial and municipal water use, respectively. The improved understanding of global E4W will enable enhanced consistency of both water and energy representations in integrated assessment models.

  3. Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and severity of water stress

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Viviroli, Daniel; Dürr, Hans H.; Weingartner, Rolf; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted with global monthly water demand. Water demand is defined here as the volume of water required by users to satisfy their needs. Water demand is calculated for the benchmark year of 2000 and contras...

  4. Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and severity of water stress

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Yoshihide; Beek, L. P. H.; Viviroli, Daniel; Dürr, Hans H; Weingartner, Rolf; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted with global monthly water demand. Water demand is defined here as the volume of water required by users to satisfy their needs. Water demand is calculated for the benchmark year of 2000 and contras...

  5. Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

  6. Modeling global nutrient export from watersheds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Bouwman, L.; Seitzinger, S.

    2012-01-01

    We describe how global models can be used to analyze past and future trends in nutrient export from watersheds and how such models can be used to analyze causes and effects of coastal eutrophication. Future nutrient inputs to coastal waters may be higher than today, and nutrient ratios may depart fr

  7. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  8. Assessment of global water security: moving beyond water scarcity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Gain, A. K.; Giupponi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies, and the ecosystems on which we depend. Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Hence, ensuring water security along with energy and food securities has been recognised as priority goals in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations. This water security is not rooted only in the limitation of physical resources, i.e. the shortage in the availability of freshwater relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. flawed water planning and management approaches, institutional incapability to provide water services, unsustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for assessment of global water scarcity. However, integrating both physical and socio-economic indicators assessment of water security at global level is not available yet. In this study, we present the first global understanding of water security using a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework that goes beyond available water scarcity assessment. For assessing water security at global scale, the term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The Water security index is calculated by aggregating the indicators using both simple additive weighting (SAW) and ordered weighted average (OWA).

  9. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on water resources of headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for Loktak Lake, northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, C. R.; Thompson, J. R.; French, J. R.; Kingston, D. G.; Mackay, A. W.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part due to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE) of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of "dangerous" climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21) indicate increases in discharge which vary from hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the release of water for barrage structural stability. Although elevated water levels may permit enhanced abstraction for irrigation and domestic uses, future increases in hydropower generation are limited by existing infrastructure. The higher water levels are likely to exacerbate existing ecological deterioration within the lake as well as enhancing problems of flooding of lakeside communities.

  10. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  11. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  12. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  13. Global resilience analysis of water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diao, Kegong; Sweetapple, Chris; Farmani, Raziyeh; Fu, Guangtao; Ward, Sarah; Butler, David

    2016-12-01

    Evaluating and enhancing resilience in water infrastructure is a crucial step towards more sustainable urban water management. As a prerequisite to enhancing resilience, a detailed understanding is required of the inherent resilience of the underlying system. Differing from traditional risk analysis, here we propose a global resilience analysis (GRA) approach that shifts the objective from analysing multiple and unknown threats to analysing the more identifiable and measurable system responses to extreme conditions, i.e. potential failure modes. GRA aims to evaluate a system's resilience to a possible failure mode regardless of the causal threat(s) (known or unknown, external or internal). The method is applied to test the resilience of four water distribution systems (WDSs) with various features to three typical failure modes (pipe failure, excess demand, and substance intrusion). The study reveals GRA provides an overview of a water system's resilience to various failure modes. For each failure mode, it identifies the range of corresponding failure impacts and reveals extreme scenarios (e.g. the complete loss of water supply with only 5% pipe failure, or still meeting 80% of demand despite over 70% of pipes failing). GRA also reveals that increased resilience to one failure mode may decrease resilience to another and increasing system capacity may delay the system's recovery in some situations. It is also shown that selecting an appropriate level of detail for hydraulic models is of great importance in resilience analysis. The method can be used as a comprehensive diagnostic framework to evaluate a range of interventions for improving system resilience in future studies.

  14. Global hotspots of water scarcity impacts due to human interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Masaki, Y.; Doll, P. M.; Ostberg, S.; Oki, T.; Gosling, S.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many global river basins, due to both local increases in water demand and human interventions affecting stream flow. In a novel multi-model multi-forcing assessment over the period 1971-2010, we examine how several human interventions have affected water scarcity, namely land use change, reservoir operations, and upstream water withdrawals. We show that these human interventions have caused increased water scarcity for 16% of the global population, and decreased water scarcity for 13%, and have contributed to distinct patterns of water scarcity hotspots. We also show that a combination of human interventions and changes in local water demands have led to an increase in the duration of extreme water scarcity events in 30% of the global land area, inhabited by 49% of the global population. Upstream human interventions are the main dominant driver (in 86% of the cases) of negative impacts on downstream fresh water resources and water scarcity. Therefore, adaptation measures should be embedded in integrated river basin management plans, addressing upstream effects on downstream water scarcity.This study is the first in its kind to evaluate how human interventions affected water scarcity conditions as well as the exposure to and persistence of water scarcity events, using an ensemble of five global water impact models (H08, LPJmL, MATSIRO, PCR-GLOBWB, WaterGAP) driven by three global state-of-the art observations-based historical climate data-sets (PGFv2, GSWP3, WFD/WFDEI) and a set of socio-economic proxies (GDP, population density, livestock density, land use and land cover) to model historical demands. A novelty of this research is the use of the HYDE 3.1 - MIRCA dataset for simulating the time-varying effects of changes in irrigation and/or cropland patterns. With the incorporation of a spatially and temporally explicit indicator to describe minimum environmental flow requirements, i.e. the amount of water that ecosystems need

  15. Global nuclear material control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-05-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material.

  16. Weather and climate analyses using improved global water vapor observations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vonder Haar, Thomas H; Bytheway, Janice L; Forsythe, John M

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) dataset is a global (land and ocean) water vapor dataset created by merging multiple sources of atmospheric water vapor to form a global data base of total and layered precipitable water vapor...

  17. Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  18. Structure and Controls of the Global Virtual Water Trade Network

    CERN Document Server

    Suweis, S; Dalin, C; Hanasaki, N; Rinaldo, A; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; 10.1029/2011GL046837

    2012-01-01

    Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the amount of water used to produce a given commodity. We build, analyze and model the network describing the transfer of virtual water between world nations for staple food products. We find that all the key features of the network are well described by a model that reproduces both the topological and weighted properties of the global virtual water trade network, by assuming as sole controls each country's gross domestic product and yearly rainfall on agricultural areas. We capture and quantitatively describe the high degree of globalization of water trade and show that a small group of nations play a key role in the connectivity of the network and in the global redistribution of virtual water. Finally, we illustrate examples of prediction of the structure of the network under fut...

  19. Benchmarking water productivity in agriculture and the scope for improvement - remote sensing modelling from field to global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwart, S.J.

    2010-01-01

    Agriculture is the largest consumer and water. In the context of an increasing population and less water available for the agricultural sector, the water productivity needs to be sustained or increased to secure food security. This study provides benchmark values for water productivity for the major

  20. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  1. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  2. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Portmann, Felix Theodor; Reinecke, Robert; Riedel, Claudia; Song, Qi; Zhang, Jing; Döll, Petra

    2016-10-01

    The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971-2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (-6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  3. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological

  4. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological forc

  5. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on water resources of headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for Loktak Lake, northeast India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Singh

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part due to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of "dangerous" climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21 indicate increases in discharge which vary from <1% to 42% although, in some cases, discharge decreases by as much as 20%. Six of the GCMs suggest overall increases in river flow to Loktak Lake (2–27% whilst the other results in a modest (6% decline. In contrast, the Group 2 scenarios lead to an almost linear increase in total river flow to Loktak Lake with increasing temperature (up to 27% for 6 °C, although two sub-catchments experience reductions in mean discharge for the smallest temperature increases. In all but one Group 1 scenario, and all the Group 2 scenarios, Loktak Lake water levels are higher, regularly reaching the top of a downstream hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the

  6. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Bassi

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impending water problems while assessing investment needs for integrated water management as a possible solution to projected water challenges. The analysis compares a business as usual case (BAU to a scenario in which investments improve water efficiency use across sectors to curb demand, increase innovative supply from desalination and enhance conventional water resources management measures. System dynamics modeling is employed to represent the structural factors influencing water demand and supply in the context of an integrated framework including cross-sectoral linkages. The analysis confirms that sustainable water management is feasible, but it requires investments in the range of $145 billion per year between 2011 and 2050 (0.16% of GDP or $17/person/year and timely, effective action.

  7. Linking global water demand and supply using remote sensing products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poortinga, A.; Thanh Ha, L.; Phuong Vu, N.; Saah, D. S.; Cutter, P. G.; Troy, A.; Ganz, D.

    2016-12-01

    Due to increasing pressures on water resources and changing population dynamics, there is a need to monitor regional water resource availability in a spatially and temporally explicit manner. However, for many parts of the world, there is insufficient data to quantify stream flow in river basins or potential ground water infiltration rates. Often water resource managers use sophistic hydrology models that require complex data sets to generate estimations, but the results of these efforts lack confidence due to the absence of accurate input data or validation methods. Global open access remote sensing derived data products offer exciting new opportunities to study spatial-temporal water dynamics in a way directly relevant to managers. We present the results of an elegant pixel-based water balance formulation to partition rainfall into evapotranspiration, surface water runoff and potential ground water. The method provides a rapid, accurate, and cost-effective solution to mapping water resource availability in basins with no gauges or monitoring infrastructure. The presented method provides important new insights into the spatial and temporal water supply and demand dynamics. The preliminary result of an application of the model build for the Mekong region will be presented, where quantitative water supply estimations are linked with demand patterns. It will be demonstrated that global freely available remote sensing products can be used to produce significant and operational results for water resource managers. We demonstrate that space based technologies and their applications play a key role to optimize the planning, implementation, and monitoring of projects.

  8. Why a Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempel, Gotthilf; Daler, Dag

    2004-02-01

    Why GIWA? Six years ago several people had their doubts as to whether a Global International Waters Assessment would be worth the money and effort. Nowadays, it is no longer necessary to justify the creation of GIWA. On the contrary, we will show how important it was that the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and UNEP, constituted GIWA. Countless water-related assessments focus on specific regions and/or specific issues. But GIWA is unique in its global and holistic policy-oriented approach applying a common methodology to address the major problems in all parts of the global hydrosphere. One major achievement of GIWA will be the GIWA publications which provide advice to GEF and other decision-making organizations. Further assets include the network of regional focal points and teams. GIWA encompasses marine, surface freshwater, and groundwater systems, following the flow of water from the sources in the mountains through the rivers and estuaries into the coastal waters and the shelf seas. GIWA studies the physical, chemical and biological properties of those waterbodies and living resources in relation to the human activities, combining ecological and socioeconomic considerations.

  9. Changes in Terrestrial Water Availability under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    Under global warming, the annual range of precipitation is widening (Chou and Lan, 2012; Chou et al., 2013) and the frequency of precipitation extreme events also increases. Due to nonlinear responses of land hydrological process to precipitation extremes, runoff can increase exponentially, and on the hard hand, soil water storage may decline. In addition, IPCC AR5 indicates that soil moisture decreases in most areas under the global warming scenario. In this study, we use NCAR Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to simulate changes in terrestrial available water (TAW, defined as the precipitation minus evaporation minus runoff, and then divided by the precipitation) under global warming. Preliminary results show that the TAW has clear seasonal variations. Compared to previous studies, which do not include the runoff in the calculations of the available water, our estimates on the TAW has much less available water in high latitudes through out the year, especially under extreme precipitation events.

  10. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  11. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  12. Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

    2016-04-01

    Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

  13. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

    2016-12-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  14. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, Finn

    2017-04-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  15. Development of an advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model aimed at clarifying the missing role of inland water in the global biogeochemical cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Tadanobu

    2017-04-01

    Recent research showed that inland water including rivers, lakes, and groundwater may play some role in carbon cycling, although its contribution has remained uncertain due to limited amount of reliable data available. In this study, the author developed an advanced model coupling eco-hydrology and biogeochemical cycle (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC). This new model incorporates complex coupling of hydrologic-carbon cycle in terrestrial-aquatic linkages and interplay between inorganic and organic carbon during the whole process of carbon cycling. The model could simulate both horizontal transports (export from land to inland water 2.01 ± 1.98 Pg C/yr and transported to ocean 1.13 ± 0.50 Pg C/yr) and vertical fluxes (degassing 0.79 ± 0.38 Pg C/yr, and sediment storage 0.20 ± 0.09 Pg C/yr) in major rivers in good agreement with previous researches, which was an improved estimate of carbon flux from previous studies. The model results also showed global net land flux simulated by NICE-BGC (-1.05 ± 0.62 Pg C/yr) decreased carbon sink a little in comparison with revised Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (-1.79 ± 0.64 Pg C/yr) and previous materials (-2.8 to -1.4 Pg C/yr). This is attributable to CO2 evasion and lateral carbon transport explicitly included in the model, and the result suggests that most previous researches have generally overestimated the accumulation of terrestrial carbon and underestimated the potential for lateral transport. The results further implied difference between inverse techniques and budget estimates suggested can be explained to some extent by a net source from inland water. NICE-BGC would play an important role in reevaluation of greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, quantification of hot spots, and bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches to global carbon budget.

  16. A Global Observatory of Lake Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Andrew N.; Hunter, Peter D.; Spyrakos, Evangelos; Neil, Claire; Simis, Stephen; Groom, Steve; Merchant, Chris J.; Miller, Claire A.; O'Donnell, Ruth; Scott, E. Marian

    2017-04-01

    Our planet's surface waters are a fundamental resource encompassing a broad range of ecosystems that are core to global biogeochemical cycling, biodiversity and food and energy security. Despite this, these same waters are impacted by multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures and drivers of environmental change. The complex interaction between physical, chemical and biological processes in surface waters poses significant challenges for in situ monitoring and assessment and this often limits our ability to adequately capture the dynamics of aquatic systems and our understanding of their status, functioning and response to pressures. Recent developments in the availability of satellite platforms for Earth observation (including ESA's Copernicus Programme) offers an unprecedented opportunity to deliver measures of water quality at a global scale. The UK NERC-funded GloboLakes project is a five-year research programme investigating the state of lakes and their response to climatic and other environmental drivers of change through the realization of a near-real time satellite based observatory (Sentinel-3) and archive data processing (MERIS, SeaWiFS) to produce a 20-year time-series of observed ecological parameters and lake temperature for more than 1000 lakes globally. However, the diverse and complex optical properties of lakes mean that algorithm performance often varies markedly between different water types. The GloboLakes project is overcoming this challenge by developing a processing chain whereby algorithms are dynamically selected according to the optical properties of the lake under observation. The development and validation of the GloboLakes processing chain has been supported by access to extensive in situ data from more than thirty partners around the world that are now held in the LIMNADES community-owned data repository developed under the auspices of GloboLakes. This approach has resulted in a step-change in our ability to produce regional and

  17. Development and validation of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: a 5 arc min resolution global hydrology and water resources model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; de Graaf, Inge E. M.; Straatsma, Menno W.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2014-05-01

    PCR-GLOBWB (PCRaster Global Water Balance) is a grid-based global hydrological model developed at the Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University. For each grid cell, PCR-GLOBWB simulates moisture storage in vertically stacked soil layers, as well as the water exchange to the atmosphere and underlying groundwater reservoir. Exchange to the atmosphere comprises of precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, as well as snow accumulation and melt. All fluxes are all simulated by considering vegetation phenology and sub-grid variations in elevation, land cover and soil saturation. The model includes physically-based schemes for runoff-infiltration partitioning, interflow, groundwater recharge and baseflow, as well as river routing of discharge. Here we present and summarize the latest developments of PCR-GLOBWB. The new version of the model, PCR-GLOBWB 2.0, now runs at a spatial resolution of 5 arc min (about 10 km at the equator) and supersedes the previous generation of the model (30 arc min PCR-GLOBWB 1.0, van Beek et al., 2011). PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 consolidates all components that have been introduced since PCR-GLOWB 1.0 was first published (2011). Examples of these new components are: A comprehensive water demand and irrigation module (Wada et al., 2012). A dynamic attribution and return flow of water demand to surface water and groundwater resources (de Graaf et al., 2013). An advanced surface water routing scheme with wetland, lakes and floodplains of variable extent, thus simulating flooding and flood wave attenuation (Winsemius et al., 2013). An online scheme for dynamic withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of groundwater and surface water resources, including a progressive introduction of reservoirs (Wada et al., 2013). Further development will include the inclusion of a dynamic reservoir operation/optimization scheme and a MODFLOW lateral groundwater flow module (Sutanudjaja et al., 2011; Sutanudjaja et al., 2014). Also, scripts used for deriving

  18. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Monge-Sanz

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM. It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts general circulation model (GCM. Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H2O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H2O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa. The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH4 climatology and H2O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH4 and H2O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m−2.

  19. Atmosphere-Ocean Ozone Exchange – A Global Modeling Study of Biogeochemical, Atmospheric and Water-Side Turbulence Dependencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Helmig, D.; Fairall, C.W.; Hare, J.; Pozzer, A.

    2009-01-01

    The significance of the removal of tropospheric ozone by the oceans, covering ~2/3 of the Earth's surface, has only been addressed in a few studies involving water tank, aircraft, and tower flux measurements. On the basis of results from these few observations of the ozone dry deposition velocity (V

  20. Atmosphere-Ocean Ozone Exchange – A Global Modeling Study of Biogeochemical, Atmospheric and Water-Side Turbulence Dependencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Helmig, D.; Fairall, C.W.; Hare, J.; Pozzer, A.

    2009-01-01

    The significance of the removal of tropospheric ozone by the oceans, covering ~2/3 of the Earth's surface, has only been addressed in a few studies involving water tank, aircraft, and tower flux measurements. On the basis of results from these few observations of the ozone dry deposition velocity

  1. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  2. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  3. Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A global assessment of the impact of climate change\\ud on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Gosling, Simon N.; Arnell, Nigel

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  5. Dynamics of the global virtual water trade network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, C.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2011-12-01

    decades, mainly from trade of wheat-based commodities, indicating that the international food trade is becoming more efficient in terms of water resources over time. This study is the basis for validation of a global virtual water trade model, which allows running climate or development scenarios.

  6. Global Modelling in the 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, John M., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    Characterizes global modelling as addressing questions of human survival and well-being. Briefly describes models in three categories: the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis conference models, global international economic models, and politically-oriented models. Suggests that global models in the 80s work toward shaping the…

  7. Global physical water scarcity trajectories for the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Eisner, Stefanie; Flörke, Martina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Food security and the overall wellbeing of human kind are threatened by overexploitation of our freshwater resources. Water scarcity is not only a threat to people, but also to many of the planet's key ecosystems. Due to increasing population pressure, changing water consumption behaviour, and climate change, the threat is projected to become even worse in the future. Water can be physically scarce in two ways: population-driven water shortage occurs in areas where a large population has to depend on a limited resources (indicated by m3/capita/yr), while demand-driven water stress is related to the excessive use of otherwise sufficient water resources (indicated by demand/supply ratio). Although many studies have increased our understanding of current water scarcity and how this may increase in the future, the understanding of trajectories with the past development of the water scarcity is less well understood. To date, studies of past water resources have focused on either water shortage or water stress. We aim to calculate global water scarcity, both water stress and water shortage, for the period 1900-2005. We can thus provide, for the first time, continuous regional trends and local analyses of trajectories of water scarcity for the entire 20th century. By including both dimensions of water scarcity, we can increase the understanding of reasons behind the scarcity. We found that in year 1900 13% of the population (i.e. 0.22 billion people) was living in areas that suffer some kind of water scarcity (0.2), while in year 2005 this percentage has increased to 57% (3.80 billion). Especially the population suffering from both high water stress (ratio >0.4) and high water shortage (water shortage. We used WaterGAP model to simulate the water use and available water resources. WaterGAP was forced with WATCH data. For the past population, we used HYDE dataset. The water scarcity results are plotted in Falkenmark's water scarcity matrix, which combines water stress and

  8. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2008-05-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  9. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  10. Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

    2012-02-07

    Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

  11. Earth Observations for Global Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawford, Richard; Strauch, Adrian; Toll, David; Fekete, Balazs; Cripe, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    The combined effects of population growth, increasing demands for water to support agriculture, energy security, and industrial expansion, and the challenges of climate change give rise to an urgent need to carefully monitor and assess trends and variations in water resources. Doing so will ensure that sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe and useable water will serve as a foundation for water security. Both satellite and in situ observations combined with data assimilation and models are needed for effective, integrated monitoring of the water cycle's trends and variability in terms of both quantity and quality. On the basis of a review of existing observational systems, we argue that a new integrated monitoring capability for water security purposes is urgently needed. Furthermore, the components for this capability exist and could be integrated through the cooperation of national observational programmes. The Group on Earth Observations should play a central role in the design, implementation, management and analysis of this system and its products.

  12. Perspectives : How global food traders manage our water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warner, J.F.; Keulertz, M.; Sojamo, S.

    2015-01-01

    To many analysts, global water governance is about getting the institutions right: more accountable water users and more public participation in decisions. But are we barking up the right tree? In this analysis, we argue that when analysing global water governance, one needs to look at the global pl

  13. Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: dynamic global simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, W.

    2015-04-01

    Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatio-temporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also non-trivial downstream effects, we incorporated a dynamic representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a process-based bio- and agrosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded worldmap of dynamically retrieved irrigation efficiencies reflecting differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with lowest values (values (> 60%) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2396 km3 (2004-2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1212 km3, of which 511 km3 are non-beneficially consumed, i.e. lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world's river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76%, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15%, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing

  14. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rost, Stefanie; Gerten, Dieter; Bondeau, Alberte; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rohwer, Janine; Schaphoff, Sibyll

    2008-09-01

    This study quantifies, spatially explicitly and in a consistent modeling framework (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land), the global consumption of both "blue" water (withdrawn for irrigation from rivers, lakes and aquifers) and "green" water (precipitation) by rainfed and irrigated agriculture and by nonagricultural terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, the individual effects of human-induced land cover change and irrigation were quantified to assess the overall hydrological impact of global agriculture in the past century. The contributions to irrigation of nonrenewable (fossil groundwater) and nonlocal blue water (e.g., from diverted rivers) were derived from the difference between a simulation in which these resources were implicitly considered (IPOT) and a simulation in which they were neglected (ILIM). We found that global cropland consumed >7200 km3 year-1 of green water in 1971-2000, representing 92% (ILIM) and 85% (IPOT), respectively, of total crop water consumption. Even on irrigated cropland, 35% (ILIM) and 20% (IPOT) of water consumption consisted of green water. An additional 8155 km3 year-1 of green water was consumed on grazing land; a further ˜44,700 km3 year-1 sustained the ecosystems. Blue water consumption predominated only in intensively irrigated regions and was estimated at 636 km3 year-1 (ILIM) and 1364 km3 year-1 (IPOT) globally, suggesting that presently almost half of the irrigation water stemmed from nonrenewable and nonlocal sources. Land cover conversion reduced global evapotranspiration by 2.8% and increased discharge by 5.0% (1764 km3 year-1), whereas irrigation increased evapotranspiration by up to 1.9% and decreased discharge by 0.5% at least (IPOT, 1971-2000). The diverse water fluxes displayed considerable interannual and interdecadal variability due to climatic variations and the progressive increase of the global area under cultivation and irrigation.

  15. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  16. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  17. A global HMX decomposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hobbs, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) decomposes by competing reaction pathways to form various condensed and gas-phase intermediate and final products. Gas formation is related to the development of nonuniform porosity and high specific surface areas prior to ignition in cookoff events. Such thermal damage enhances shock sensitivity and favors self-supported accelerated burning. The extent of HMX decomposition in highly confined cookoff experiments remains a major unsolved experimental and modeling problem. The present work is directed at determination of global HMX kinetics useful for predicting the elapsed time to thermal runaway (ignition) and the extent of decomposition at ignition. Kinetic rate constants for a six step engineering based global mechanism were obtained using gas formation rates measured by Behrens at Sandia National Laboratories with his Simultaneous Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometer (STMBMS) experimental apparatus. The six step global mechanism includes competition between light gas (H[sub 2]Awe, HCN, CO, H[sub 2]CO, NO, N[sub 2]Awe) and heavy gas (C[sub 2]H[sub 6]N[sub 2]Awe and C[sub 4]H[sub 10]N0[sub 2]) formation with zero order sublimation of HMX and the mononitroso analog of HMX (mn-HMX), C[sub 4]H[sub 8]N[sub 8]Awe[sub 7]. The global mechanism was applied to the highly confined, One Dimensional Time to eXplosion (ODTX) experiment and hot cell experiments by suppressing the sublimation of HMX and mn-HMX. An additional gas-phase reaction was also included to account for the gas-phase reaction of N[sub 2]Awe with H[sub 2]CO. Predictions compare adequately to the STMBMS data, ODTX data, and hot cell data. Deficiencies in the model and future directions are discussed.

  18. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  19. Representing plant hydraulics in a global Earth system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, D.; Gentine, P.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models need improvement to reproduce observed seasonal and diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Model water stress parameterizations lag behind the plant physiology literature. A plant hydraulics model is developed and deployed in a global Earth system model (NCAR CESM 1.2.2 with CLM 4.5). Assimilation and transpiration are attenuated according to literature cavitation curves. Water stress is evaluated based on plant functional type hydraulic parameters forced by soil moisture and atmospheric conditions. Resolving the plant water status allows for modelling divergent strategies for water stress. The case of isohydric versus anisohydric species is presented, showing that including plant hydraulic traits alter modelled photosynthesis and transpiration.

  20. Collection of Condensate Water: Global Potential and Water Quality Impacts

    KAUST Repository

    Loveless, Kolin Joseph

    2012-12-28

    Water is a valuable resource throughout the world, especially in hot, dry climates and regions experiencing significant population growth. Supplies of fresh water are complicated by the economic and political conditions in many of these regions. Technologies that can supply fresh water at a reduced cost are therefore becoming increasingly important and the impact of such technologies can be substantial. This paper considers the collection of condensate water from large air conditioning units as a possible method to alleviate water scarcity issues. Using the results of a climate model that tested data collected from 2000 to 2010, we have identified areas in the world with the greatest collection potential. We gave special consideration to areas with known water scarcities, including the coastal regions of the Arabian Peninsula, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. We found that the quality of the collected water is an important criterion in determining the potential uses for this water. Condensate water samples were collected from a few locations in Saudi Arabia and detailed characterizations were conducted to determine the quality of this water. We found that the quality of condensate water collected from various locations and types of air conditioners was very high with conductivities reaching as low as 18 μS/cm and turbidities of 0. 041 NTU. The quality of the collected condensate was close to that of distilled water and, with low-cost polishing treatments, such as ion exchange resins and electrochemical processes, the condensate quality could easily reach that of potable water. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  1. Inland Water Temperature and the recent Global Warming Hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hook, S. J.; Healey, N.; Lenters, J. D.; O'Reilly, C.

    2015-12-01

    We are using thermal infrared satellite data in conjunction with in situ measurements to produce water temperatures for all the large inland water bodies in North America and the rest of the world for potential use as climate indicator. Recent studies have revealed significant warming of inland waters throughout the world. The observed rate of warming is - in many cases - greater than that of the ambient air temperature. These rapid, unprecedented changes in inland water temperatures have profound implications for lake hydrodynamics, productivity, and biotic communities. Scientists are just beginning to understand the global extent, regional patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological consequences of lake warming. As part of our earlier studies we have collected thermal infrared satellite data from those satellite sensors that provide long-term and frequent spaceborne thermal infrared measurements of inland waters including ATSR, AVHRR, and MODIS and used these to examine trends in water surface temperature for approximately 169 of the largest inland water bodies in the world. We are now extending this work to generate temperature time-series of all North American inland water bodies that are sufficiently large to be studied using 1km resolution satellite data for the last 3 decades, approximately 268 lakes. These data are then being related to changes in the surface air temperature and compared with regional trends in water surface temperature derived from CMIP5/IPCC model simulations/projections to better predict future temperature changes. We will discuss the available datasets and processing methodologies together with the patterns they reveal based on recent changes in the global warming, with a particular focus on the inland waters of the southwestern USA.

  2. Global Urbanization Modeling Supported by Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Elvidge, C.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization, one of the major human induced land cover and land use change, has profound impacts on the Earth system, and plays important roles in a variety of processes such as biodiversity loss, water and carbon cycle, and climate change. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important in both scientific and policy-making communities. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light data (NTL) provide a potential way to map urban area and its dynamics economically and timely. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the DMSP/OLS NTL data. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the derived optimal thresholds and the reliability of the cluster-based method. Compared to existing threshold techniques, our method reduces the over- and under-estimation issue, when mapping urban extent over a large area. Using this cluster-based method, we built new global maps of 1-km urban extent from the NTL data (Figure 1) and evaluated its temporal dynamics from 1992 to 2013. Supported by the derived global urban maps and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model and projected future urban expansion.

  3. Considering environmental water demands in global-scale water stress assessments: a pilot study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Shmaktin, V.; Revenga, C.

    2003-04-01

    Freshwater ecosystems need certain water flow regimes to sustain their animal and plant communities. Thus, there is not only a human demand for water (i.e. for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes) but also a demand by freshwater ecosystems, here called environmental water demand. In order to achieve a sustainable development of river basins, both human and environmental water demands need to be taken into account in water management. For a comparative global-scale analysis of freshwater scarcity, it is therefore useful to compute river- basin specific budgets which contain the following terrestrial water flows (or rather flow components): 1) total renewable water resources (runoff), 2) human water withdrawals (and consumptive water uses) and 3) environmental water demands. In a pilot study, the global water availability and use model WaterGAP 2 (spatial resolution 0.5 degree) was used to derive such budgets for all river basins of the worlds. Its sectoral water use modules estimate human water withdrawals and consumptive water uses, while its hydrological module WGHM computes monthly values of surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge. WGHM calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption. It is tuned against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations (representing about 50% of the global land area) to achieve a good simulation of the long-term average river discharge. Validation efforts have shown than WGHM can satisfactorily simulate the 90% reliable monthly discharge Q90 of river basins larger than 20,000 km2. Based on these capabilities of WaterGAP 2, a first estimate of basin-specific annual environmental water demands was derived as the sum of a low flow and a high flow requirement. Drawing on experience from South Africa, Q90 was assumed to represent the low flow that the ecosystems can tolerate, as it is the flow value that is not reached in 1 out of 10 months

  4. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  5. Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

  6. Water requirements for livestock production: a global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlink, A C; Nguyen, M L; Viljoen, G J

    2010-12-01

    Water is a vital but poorly studied component of livestock production. It is estimated that livestock industries consume 8% of the global water supply, with most of that water being used for intensive, feed-based production. This study takes a broad perspective of livestock production as a component of the human food chain, and considers the efficiency of its water use. Global models are in the early stages of development and do not distinguish between developing and developed countries, or the production systems within them. However, preliminary indications are that, when protein production is adjusted for biological value in the human diet, no plant protein is significantly more efficient at using water than protein produced from eggs, and only soybean is more water efficient than milk and goat and chicken meat. In some regions, especially developing countries, animals are not used solely for food production but also provide draught power, fibre and fertiliser for crops. In addition, animals make use of crop by-products that would otherwise go to waste. The livestock sector is the fastest-growing agricultural sector, which has led to increasing industrialisation and, in some cases, reduced environmental constraints. In emerging economies, increasing involvement in livestock is related to improving rural wealth and increasing consumption of animal protein. Water usage for livestock production should be considered an integral part of agricultural water resource management, taking into account the type of production system (e.g. grain-fed or mixed crop-livestock) and scale (intensive or extensive), the species and breeds of livestock, and the social and cultural aspects of livestock farming in various countries.

  7. Back-casting global water stress: Reconstruction of past water demand and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2010-12-01

    Water scarcity, caused by an existing regional imbalance of water availability and water demand, poses a serious environmental issue to the global society. Since the late 1990s, several studies have quantified blue water stress at the global scale by using the global hydrological models to simulate blue water availability (i.e., surface freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs) which is confronted against water demand to compute water stress. While these assessments have identified regions suffering from current water stress and vulnerable to future water scarcity due to the effects of the climate change and prone to frequent droughts (e.g., Australia, Central and West USA, India, North-East China, Pakistan), the development of past water stress with the influences of population and economic growth and expanding irrigated area has not yet been quantified, which might give an important implication for the future assessment of water stress. Here, we developed a method to reconstruct past water demand from agricultural (i.e., irrigation and livestock), industrial and domestic (i.e., households and municipalities) sector over the period 1960 to 2001, which was used to contrast transient effects in its development against climate variability in the severity of water stress. Agricultural water demand was estimated based on past extents of irrigated area and livestock densities. We developed a simple algorithm to approximate the past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which was subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Desalinated water use and groundwater abstraction were additionally calculated over the same period, the latter being proportional to water demand. Various annual country statistics were used but resulted estimates were gridded at a spatial resolution of 0.5° and disaggregated into a monthly temporal scale as it can be expected that

  8. Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org) is the development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model. This model is able to produce 14 day ensemble forecasts based on a hydrological model and operational weather data (presently NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System). Special attention is paid to prediction of situations in which water related issues are relevant, such as floods, droughts, navigation, hydropower generation, and irrigation stress. Near-real time satellite data will be assimilated in the hydrological simulations, which is a feature that will be presented for the first time at EGU 2015. First, we address challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. An important feature in this is the use of existing standards and open-source software to the maximum extent possible. For example, we use the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) approach to coupling models (Basic Model Interface (BMI)). The hydrological model underlying the project is PCR-GLOBWB, built by Utrecht University. This is the motor behind the predictions and state estimations. Parts of PCR-GLOBWB have been re-engineered to facilitate running it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, run parallel on multiple nodes, as well as to use BMI. Hydrological models are not very CPU intensive compared to, say, atmospheric models. They are, however, memory hungry due to the localized processes and associated effective parameters. To accommodate this memory need, especially in an ensemble setting, a variation on the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter was developed that needs much less on-chip memory. Due to the operational nature, the coupling of the hydrological model with hydraulic models is very important. The idea is not to run detailed hydraulic routing schemes over the complete globe but to have on-demand simulation prepared off-line with respect to topography and

  9. Thinking about the Future of Global Water Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph W. Dellapenna

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Global water problems are likely to increase in severity, rendering existing governance approaches unable to cope with the resulting problems. We inquire into the relationship between global water governance structures, particularly those involving the United Nations, and look at how those structures are likely to respond to and shape projected water futures. Building on story lines of possible water futures taken from existing scenarios, we discuss the functions to be performed by global water governance. We aim to open a discussion about four global water governance options and to introduce the constraints and possibilities for each option. We argue that the nature of the water problem calls for structural changes. However unfeasible these may appear today, such transitions do occur, and, if the narrative is sufficiently sound, it can be used by social movements and networks to mobilize policy entrepreneurs and directional leaders to work for such changes.

  10. Global and regional evaluation of energy for water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.; Davies, Evan; Miralles, Diego G.; Teuling, Ryan; He, Yujie; Niyogi, Dev

    2016-01-01

    Despite significant effort to quantify the interdependence of the water and energy sectors, global requirements of energy for water (E4W) are still poorly understood, which may result in biases in projections and consequently in water and energy management and policy. This study estimates water-r

  11. Water footprint benchmarks for crop production: A first global assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen, M.M.; Hoekstra, A.Y.

    2014-01-01

    In the coming few decades, global freshwater demand will increase to meet the growing demand for food, fibre and biofuel crops. Raising water productivity in agriculture, that is reducing the water footprint (WF) per unit of production, will contribute to reducing the pressure on the limited global

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER CIRCULATION MODEL INCLUDING IRRIGATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsuki, Shunji; Tanaka, Kenji; Kojiri, Toshiharu; Hamaguchi, Toshio

    It is well known that since agricultural water withdrawal has much affect on water circulation system, accurate analysis of river discharge or water balance are difficult with less regard for it. In this study, water circulation model composed of land surface model and distributed runoff model is proposed at 10km 10km resolution. In this model, irrigation water, which is estimated with land surface model, is introduced to river discharge analysis. The model is applied to the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, and reproduced seasonal water balance. Additionally, the discharge on dry season simulated with the model is improved as a result of including irrigation. Since the model, which is basically developed from global data sets, simulated seasonal change of river discharge, it can be suggested that our model has university to other river basins.

  13. Global net irrigation water requirements from various water supply sources during past and future periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, S.; Cho, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Water supply sources for irrigation (e.g. rivers and reservoirs) are critically important for agricultural productivity. The current rapid increase in irrigation water use is considered unsustainable and threatens food production. In this study, we estimated the time-varying dependence of irrigation water requirements from water supply sources, with a particular focus on variations in irrigation area during past (1960-2001) and future (2002-2050) periods using the global water resources model, H08. The H08 model can simulate water requirements on a daily basis at a resolution of 1.0° × 1.0° latitude and longitude. The sources of irrigation water requirements in the past simulations were specified using four categories: rivers (RIV), large reservoirs (LR), medium-size reservoirs (MSR), and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). The simulated results from 1960 to 2001 showed that RIV, MSR and NNBW increased significantly from the 1960s to the early 1990s globally, but LR increased at a relatively low rate. After the early 1990s, the increase in RIV declined as it approached a critical limit, due to the continued expansion of irrigation area. MSR and NNBW increased significantly, during the same time period, following the expansion of the irrigation area and the increased storage capacity of the medium-size reservoirs. We also estimated future irrigation water requirements from the above four water supply sources and an additional water supply source (ADD) in three future simulation designs; irrigation area change, climate change, and changes in both irrigation area and climate. ADD was defined as a future increase in NNBW. After the 2020s, MSR was predicted to approach the critical limit, and ADD would account for 11-23% of the total requirements in the 2040s.

  14. Global CLEWs model - A novel application of OSeMOSYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avgerinopoulos, Georgios; Pereira Ramos, Eunice; Howells, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Over the past years, studies that analyse Nexus issues from a holistic point of view and not energy, land or water separately have been gaining momentum. This project aims at giving insights into global issues through the application and the analysis of a global scale OSeMOSYS model. The latter -which is based on a fully open and amendable code- has been used successfully in the latest years as it has been the producing fully accessible energy models suitable for capacity building and policy making suggestions. This study develops a CLEWs (climate, land, energy and water) model with the objective of interrogating global challenges (e.g. increasing food demand) and international trade features, with policy priorities on food security, resource efficiency, low-carbon energy and climate change mitigation, water availability and vulnerability to water stress and floods, water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It will for instance assess (i) the impact of water constraints on food security and human development (clean water for human use; industrial and energy water demands), as well as (ii) the impact of climate change on aggravating or relieving water problems.

  15. Global Models of Planet Formation and Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Mordasini, C; Dittkrist, K -M; Jin, S; Alibert, Y

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increase in observational data on exoplanets, the processes that lead to the formation of planets are still not well understood. But thanks to the high number of known exoplanets, it is now possible to look at them as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis. Its key element is a global model of planet formation and evolution that directly predicts observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disk. To do so, global models build on many specialized models that address one specific physical process. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disk (gas and solids), the (proto)planet (solid core, gaseous envelope, and atmosphere), and finally the interactions (migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches in different global models and id...

  16. Global change and water resources in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Hirsch, R.M.

    2010-01-01

    We are in the midst of a continental-scale, multi-year experiment in the United States, in which we have not defined our testable hypotheses or set the duration and scope of the experiment, which poses major water-resources challenges for the 21st century. What are we doing? We are expanding population at three times the national growth rate in our most water-scarce region, the southwestern United States, where water stress is already great and modeling predicts decreased streamflow by the middle of this century. We are expanding irrigated agriculture from the west into the east, particularly to the southeastern states, where increased competition for ground and surface water has urban, agricultural, and environmental interests at odds, and increasingly, in court. We are expanding our consumption of pharmaceutical and personal care products to historic high levels and disposing them in surface and groundwater, through sewage treatment plants and individual septic systems. These substances are now detectable at very low concentrations and we have documented significant effects on aquatic species, particularly on fish reproduction function. We don’t yet know what effects on human health may emerge, nor do we know if we need to make large investments in water treatment systems, which were not designed to remove these substances. These are a few examples of our national-scale experiment. In addition to these water resources challenges, over which we have some control, climate change models indicate that precipitation and streamflow patterns will change in coming decades, with western mid-latitude North America generally drier. We have already documented trends in more rain and less snow in western mountains. This has large implications for water supply and storage, and groundwater recharge. We have documented earlier snowmelt peak spring runoff in northeastern and northwestern States, and western montane regions. Peak runoff is now about two weeks earlier than it was

  17. Modeling the Volatility in Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to estimate the volatility in global fertilizer prices. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARC

  18. Water security-National and global issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tindall, James A.; Campbell, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Potable or clean freshwater availability is crucial to life and economic, environmental, and social systems. The amount of freshwater is finite and makes up approximately 2.5 percent of all water on the Earth. Freshwater supplies are small and randomly distributed, so water resources can become points of conflict. Freshwater availability depends upon precipitation patterns, changing climate, and whether the source of consumed water comes directly from desalination, precipitation, or surface and (or) groundwater. At local to national levels, difficulties in securing potable water sources increase with growing populations and economies. Available water improves living standards and drives urbanization, which increases average water consumption per capita. Commonly, disruptions in sustainable supplies and distribution of potable water and conflicts over water resources become major security issues for Government officials. Disruptions are often influenced by land use, human population, use patterns, technological advances, environmental impacts, management processes and decisions, transnational boundaries, and so forth.

  19. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  20. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  1. Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

  2. Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe LoBuglio

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11% use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18% use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

  3. Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gleeson, T.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Beek, L.P.H. van

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater is a life-sustaining resource that supplies water to billions of people, plays a central part in irrigated agriculture and influences the health of many ecosystems1,2. Most assessments of global water resources have focused on surface water3–6, but unsustainable depletion of groundwater

  4. Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gleeson, T.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Beek, L.P.H. van

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater is a life-sustaining resource that supplies water to billions of people, plays a central part in irrigated agriculture and influences the health of many ecosystems1,2. Most assessments of global water resources have focused on surface water3–6, but unsustainable depletion of

  5. Global consumptive water use for crop production: The importance of green water and virtual water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Yang, Hong

    2009-05-01

    Over the last 4 decades the use of blue water has received increasing attention in water resources research, but little attention has been paid to the quantification of green water in food production and food trade. In this paper, we estimate both the blue and green water components of consumptive water use (CWU) for a wide range of agricultural crops, including seven cereal crops, cassava, cotton, groundnuts, potatoes, pulses, rapeseed, soybeans, sugar beets, sugarcane, and sunflower, with a spatial resolution of 30 arc min on the land surface. The results show that the global CWU of these crops amounted to 3823 km3 a-1 for the period 1998-2002. More than 80% of this amount was from green water. Around 94% of the world crop-related virtual water trade has its origin in green water, which generally constitutes a low-opportunity cost of green water as opposed to blue water. High levels of net virtual water import (NVWI) generally occur in countries with low CWU on a per capita basis, where a virtual water strategy is an attractive water management option to compensate for domestic water shortage for food production. NVWI is constrained by income; low-income countries generally have a low level of NVWI. Strengthening low-income countries economically will allow them to develop a virtual water strategy to mitigate malnutrition of their people.

  6. A Global Hydrological Model with Reservoir Operation Scheme: Global and Regional Applications (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Mateo, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2013-12-01

    More than 45000 large dams have been constructed all over the world, and their total storage capacity exceeds 7000 km3 which corresponds to approximately 20% of the total annual global river discharge. Explicit incorporation of reservoir operation is indispensable for global-/macro-scale hydrological models, since their storage capacity and potential of altering flow regime are too large to neglect. Our presentation consists of three parts. In the first part, the H08 model, a global hydrological model with reservoir operation scheme is introduced. The H08 model includes an algorithm to estimate reservoir operating rules of individual reservoirs. This enables us to apply the model to the regions and periods with no recorded reservoir operation. The key concepts and challenges of the model are discussed. In the second part, the role of reservoirs in water scarcity is globally assessed. In many parts of the world, local people are suffered from temporal variability in precipitation and river flow. The contribution of reservoirs to water scarcity alleviation is quantitatively and globally assessed. The assessment is extended to the future periods utilizing the latest climate and socio-economic scenarios. In the last part, a regional model application is introduced. The Chao Phraya River in Thailand was suffered from a severe flood in 2011. Vast area was inundated for months and the economic damages reached 40 billion USD. The Chao Phraya River has two major reservoirs and their role is crucial for both water use and flood control. The H08 model is substantially enhanced and applied to the basin to reproduce the 2011 floods. The tradeoff between water use and flood control was investigated by changing reservoir operation options.

  7. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  8. EPANET water quality model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossman, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    EPANET represents a third generation of water quality modeling software developed by the U.S. EPA's Drinking Water Research Division, offering significant advances in the state of the art for network water quality analysis. EPANET performs extended period simulation of hydraulic and water quality behavior within water distribution systems. In addition to substance concentration, water age and source tracing can also be simulated. EPANET includes a full featured hydraulic simulation model that can handle various types of pumps, valves, and their control rules. The water quality module is equipped to handle constituent reactions within the bulk pipe flow and at the pipe wall. It also features an efficient computational scheme that automatically determines optimal time steps and pipe segmentation for accurate tracking of material transport over time. EPANET is currently being used in the US to study such issues as loss of chlorine residual, source blending and trihalomethane (THM) formation, how altered tank operation affects water age, and total dissolved solids (TDS) control for an irrigation network.

  9. Stream Water Quality Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — QUAL2K (or Q2K) is a river and stream water quality model that is intended to represent a modernized version of the QUAL2E (or Q2E) model (Brown and Barnwell 1987).

  10. Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-01-01

    By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

  11. Water for bioenergy: A global analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerbens-Leenes, P.W.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Meer, van der T.H.; Gasparatos, A.; Stromberg, P.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture is by far the largest water user. This chapter reviews studies on the water footprints (WFs) of bioenergy (in the form of bioethanol, biodiesel, and heat and electricity produced from biomass) and compares their results with the WFs of fossil energy and other types of renewables (wind po

  12. Advancing waterborne pathogen modelling: lessons from global nutrient export models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Waterborne pathogens cause health problems worldwide. A global waterborne pathogen model could provide valuable new insights for data-sparse regions, by identifying pathogen hotspots and evaluating global change and risk management scenarios. Global waterborne pathogen modelling is not as advanced a

  13. Description, calibration and sensitivity analysis of the local ecosystem submodel of a global model of carbon and nitrogen cycling and the water balance in the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kercher, J.R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Chambers, J.Q. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)]|[California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences

    1995-10-01

    We have developed a geographically-distributed ecosystem model for the carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics of the terrestrial biosphere TERRA. The local ecosystem model of TERRA consists of coupled, modified versions of TEM and DAYTRANS. The ecosystem model in each grid cell calculates water fluxes of evaporation, transpiration, and runoff; carbon fluxes of gross primary productivity, litterfall, and plant and soil respiration; and nitrogen fluxes of vegetation uptake, litterfall, mineralization, immobilization, and system loss. The state variables are soil water content; carbon in live vegetation; carbon in soil; nitrogen in live vegetation; organic nitrogen in soil and fitter; available inorganic nitrogen aggregating nitrites, nitrates, and ammonia; and a variable for allocation. Carbon and nitrogen dynamics are calibrated to specific sites in 17 vegetation types. Eight parameters are determined during calibration for each of the 17 vegetation types. At calibration, the annual average values of carbon in vegetation C, show site differences that derive from the vegetation-type specific parameters and intersite variation in climate and soils. From calibration, we recover the average C{sub v} of forests, woodlands, savannas, grasslands, shrublands, and tundra that were used to develop the model initially. The timing of the phases of the annual variation is driven by temperature and light in the high latitude and moist temperate zones. The dry temperate zones are driven by temperature, precipitation, and light. In the tropics, precipitation is the key variable in annual variation. The seasonal responses are even more clearly demonstrated in net primary production and show the same controlling factors.

  14. Global Water Governance in the Context of Global and Multilevel Governance: Its Need, Form, and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joyeeta Gupta

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To complement this Special Feature on global water governance, we focused on a generic challenge at the global level, namely, the degree to which water issues need to be dealt with in a centralized, concentrated, and hierarchical manner. We examined water ecosystem services and their impact on human well-being, the role of policies, indirect and direct drivers in influencing these services, and the administrative level(s at which the provision of services and potential trade-offs can be dealt with. We applied a politics of scale perspective to understand motivations for defining a problem at the global or local level and show that the multilevel approach to water governance is evolving and inevitable. We argue that a centralized overarching governance system for water is unlikely and possibly undesirable; however, there is a need for a high-level think tank and leadership to develop a cosmopolitan perspective to promote sustainable water development.

  15. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, C. R.; Thompson, J. R.; French, J. R.; Kingston, D. G.; Mackay, A. W.

    2010-09-01

    Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE) of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of ''dangerous'' climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21) indicate increases in discharge which vary from hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the release of water for barrage structural stability. Although elevated water levels may permit enhanced abstraction for irrigation and domestic uses, future increases in hydropower generation are limited by existing infrastructure. The higher water levels are likely to exacerbate existing ecological deterioration within the lake as well as enhancing problems of flooding of lakeside communities.

  16. GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    Debu Mukherjee

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is the gradual heating of earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere. Global warming is primarily a problem of too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which acts as a blanket, trapping heat and warming the planet. The relationship between water, energy, agriculture and climate is a significant one. As the earth’s temperature continues to rise, we can expect a significant impact on our fresh water supplies with the potential for devastating effects on these resources.&nb...

  17. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innovation for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utilizing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to accelerate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  18. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  19. Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kummu, Matti; Varis, Olli [Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University (Finland); Ward, Philip J; De Moel, Hans, E-mail: matti.kummu@iki.fi, E-mail: philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl, E-mail: hans.de.moel@ivm.vu.nl, E-mail: olli.varis@tkk.fi [Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2010-07-15

    In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961-90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000-1700 m{sup 3}/capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2% of the world population was under chronic water shortage (<1000 m{sup 3}/capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.

  20. Modelling Croatian Export Dynamics Using Global Macroeconometric Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jakšić, Saša; Žmuk, Berislav

    2014-01-01

    Five years following the occurrence of the global economic and financial crisis, Croatia is one of the few countries in the region whose export has still not recovered to the pre-crisis level. In order to properly account for international linkages and possible crisis spillover effects, a Global Vector AutoRegressive (GVAR) model is defined. The GVAR model is a consistent global macroeconometric model which enables modelling interactions between Croatia and a set of Central and Southeast Euro...

  1. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  2. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    . Contents: The Theoretical History and Background of Business Models The Th eoretical Background of Business Model Innovation ICT - a Key Enabler in Innovating New Global Business Models The NEWGIBM Research Methodology The Analytical Model for NEWGIBM Industry Service - Technology Centre The KMD Case Smart...... House Case The Nano Solar Case The Master Cat Case The Pitfalls Of The Blue Ocean Strategy - Implications Of "The Six Paths Framework" Network-Based Innovation - Combining Exploration and Exploitation? Innovating New Business Models in Inter-firm Collaboration NEW Global Business Models - What Did......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative...

  3. An Assessment of Global Net Irrigation Water Requirements from Various Water Supply Sources to Sustain Irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Cho, Jail; Yamada, Hannah; Khajuria, Anupam; Hanasaki, Naota; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2014-05-01

    Water supply sources for irrigation, such as rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater, are critically important for agricultural productivity. The current rapid increase in irrigation water use threatens sustainable food production. In this study, we estimated the time-varying dependence of irrigation water requirements from water supply sources, with a particular focus on variations in irrigation area during the period 1960-2050 using the global water resources model, H08. The H08 model simulates water requirements on a daily basis at a resolution of 1.0° × 1.0° . The sources of irrigation water requirements in the past simulations were specified using four categories: rivers (RIV), large reservoirs (LR) with a storage capacity greater than 1.0 km3, medium-size reservoirs (MSR) with storage capacities ranging from 1.0 km3 to 3.0 M m3, and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). We also estimated future irrigation water requirements from the above four water supply sources and an additional water supply source (ADD) in three future simulation designs; irrigation area change, climate change, and changes in both irrigation area and climate. ADD was defined as the difference between NNBW in the 1990s and NNBW in the 2040s, because it was difficult to distinguish the types of future water supply sources except for RIV. The simulated results showed that RIV, MSR, and NNBW increased significantly through the 1960s to the early 1990s globally, but LR increased at a relatively low rate. After the early 1990s, RIV approached a critical limit due to the continued expansion of the irrigation area. Furthermore, MSR and NNBW increased significantly following the expansion of the irrigation area and the increased storage capacity of the medium-size reservoirs. After the 2020s, MSR could be expected to approach the critical limit without the construction of medium-size reservoirs. ADD would account for 11-23% of the total requirements in the 2040s. We found that an expansion of

  4. Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J.

    2016-02-01

    As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.

  5. Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: a test of climate feedback by water vapor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soden, Brian J; Wetherald, Richard T; Stenchikov, Georgiy L; Robock, Alan

    2002-04-26

    The sensitivity of Earth's climate to an external radiative forcing depends critically on the response of water vapor. We use the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere that was observed after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo to test model predictions of the climate feedback from water vapor. Here, we first highlight the success of the model in reproducing the observed drying after the volcanic eruption. Then, by comparing model simulations with and without water vapor feedback, we demonstrate the importance of the atmospheric drying in amplifying the temperature change and show that, without the strong positive feedback from water vapor, the model is unable to reproduce the observed cooling. These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.

  6. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  7. Global water resources assessment at a sub-annual timescale: Application to climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Several reports have assessed water scarcity globally using the widely accepted withdrawal-to-water resources ratio (hereafter WWR). This index is defined as the ratio of annual withdrawal to the annual renewable water resources (runoff). The index has also been used widely to assess the impact of climate change on global water resources. Here, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the WWR to assess the impact of climate change. Global warming is projected to increase the mean annual runoff in many parts of the world. Therefore, in these regions, the WWR decreases, by definition. However, water scarcity may not always be alleviated in these regions. Global warming is also projected to increase the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, decrease snowfall, and change the timing of snowmelt. These phenomena may increase the temporal gap between water availability and water demand, which might worsen local water scarcity, even if the mean annual runoff is increased. To assess the impact of climate change on global water resources incorporating subannual time-scale phenomena, this study applies a new water scarcity index, the cumulative withdrawal-to-demand ratio (hereafter CWD). This index is defined as the ratio of the accumulation of daily water withdrawal from local water resources to the accumulation of daily water demand. To estimate daily water withdrawal and water demand, we used the state-of-the-art H08 global water resources model. Our results indicated that global warming increased the mean annual runoff in 52% of the total land area globally. However, in 22% of the area where runoff increased, the CWD showed increased water stress. Those regions included India, northern China, and northern Europe. For India, the increase in water stress was attributed to the seasonal gap between runoff increase and water demand. The increased runoff was concentrated in a few months, while the high water demand months differed and were much longer. For Europe

  8. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model.Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence.Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management.Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other.Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered.Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively.Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  9. Global MHD Models of the Solar Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suess, S. T.; Rose, Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona are computationally intensive, numerically complex simulations that have produced important new results over the past few years. After a brief overview of how these models usually work, I will address three topics: (1) How these models are now routinely used to predict the morphology of the corona and analyze Earth and space-based remote observations of the Sun; (2) The direct application of these models to the analysis of physical processes in the corona and chromosphere and to the interpretation of in situ solar wind observations; and (3) The use of results from global models to validate the approximations used to make detailed studies of physical processes in the corona that are not otherwise possible using the global models themselves.

  10. The Global Enery and Water Cycle Experiment Science Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, M. T.

    1997-01-01

    The distribution of water in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth is the most influential factor regulating our environment, not only because water is essential for life but also because through phase transitions it is the main energy source that control clouds and radiation and drives the global circulation of the atmosphere.

  11. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  12. Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2012-01-01

    A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

  13. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  14. Advancements in the global modelling of coastal flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and high tides can cause catastrophic floods. Due to climate change and socio-economic development the potential impacts of coastal floods are increasing globally. Global modelling of coastal flood hazard provides an important perspective to quantify and effectively manage this challenge. In this contribution we show two recent advancements in global modelling of coastal flood hazard: 1) a new improved global dataset of extreme sea levels, and 2) an improved vertical datum for extreme sea levels. Both developments have important implications for estimates of exposure and inundation modelling. For over a decade, the only global dataset of extreme sea levels was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL), which uses a static approximation to estimate total water levels for different return periods. Recent advances have enabled the development of a new dynamically derived dataset: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here we present a comparison of the DCESL and GTSR extreme sea levels and the resulting global flood exposure for present-day conditions. While DCESL generally overestimates extremes, GTSR underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. This results in differences in estimates of flood exposure. When using the 1 in 100-year GTSR extremes, the exposed global population is 28% lower than when using the 1 in 100-year DCESL extremes. Previous studies at continental to global-scales have not accounted for the fact that GTSR and DCESL are referenced to mean sea level, whereas global elevation datasets, such as SRTM, are referenced to the EGM96 geoid. We propose a methodology to correct for the difference in vertical datum and demonstrate that this also has a large effect on exposure. For GTSR, the vertical datum correction results in a 60% increase in global exposure.

  15. Sustainable water future with global implications: everyone's responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuylenstierna, J L; Bjorklund, G; Najlis, P

    1997-01-01

    The current use and management of freshwater is not sustainable in many countries and regions of the world. If current trends are maintained, about two-thirds of the world's population will face moderate to severe water stress by 2025 compared to one-third at present. This water stress will hamper economic and social development unless action is taken to deal with the emerging problems. The Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, prepared by the UN and the Stockholm Environment Institute, calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration of freshwater resources. Although most problems related to water quantity and quality require national and regional solutions, only a global commitment can achieve the necessary agreement on principles, as well as financial means to attain sustainability. Due to the central and integrated role played by water in human activities, any measures taken need to incorporate a wide range of social, ecological and economic factors and needs. The Assessment thus addresses the many issues related to freshwater use, such as integrated land and water management at the watershed level, global food security, water supply and sanitation, ecosystem requirements, pollution, strengthening of major groups, and national water resource assessment capabilities and monitoring networks. Governments are urged to work towards a consensus regarding global principles and guidelines for integrated water management, and towards their implementation in local and regional water management situations. The alternative development options available to countries facing water stress, or the risk thereof, needs to be considered in all aspects of development planning.

  16. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  17. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  18. Water savings of redistributing global crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle; Seveso, Antonio; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Human demand for crop production is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of population growth, richer diets and biofuel use. For food production to keep pace, unprecedented amounts of resources - water, fertilizers, energy - will be required. This has led to calls for 'sustainable intensification' in which yields are increased on existing croplands while seeking to minimize impacts on water and other agricultural resources. Recent studies have quantified aspects of this, showing that there is a large potential to improve crop yields and increase harvest frequencies to better meet human demand. Though promising, both solutions would necessitate large additional inputs of water and fertilizer in order to be achieved under current technologies. However, the question of whether the current distribution of crops is, in fact, the best for realizing maximized production has not been considered to date. To this end, we ask: Is it possible to minimize water demand by simply growing crops where soil and climate conditions are best suited? Here we use maps of agro-ecological suitability - a measure of physical and chemical soil fertility - for 15 major food crops to identify differences between current crop distributions and where they can most suitably be planted. By redistributing crops across currently cultivated lands, we determine what distribution of crops would maintain current calorie production and agricultural value while minimizing the water demand of crop production. In doing this, our study provides a novel tool for policy makers and managers to integrate food security, environmental sustainability, and rural livelihoods by improving the use of freshwater resources without compromising crop calorie production or rural livelihoods.

  19. Global identifiability of linear structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Drton, Mathias; Sullivant, Seth

    2010-01-01

    Structural equation models are multivariate statistical models that are defined by specifying noisy functional relationships among random variables. We consider the classical case of linear relationships and additive Gaussian noise terms. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for global identifiability of the model in terms of a mixed graph encoding the linear structural equations and the correlation structure of the error terms. Global identifiability is understood to mean injectivity of the parametrization of the model and is fundamental in particular for applicability of standard statistical methodology.

  20. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regions of the world where surface water quality is expected to deteriorate under climate change and anthropogenic developments. Our approach integrates global hydrological-water quality modelling, climate and socio-economic scenarios and relations of water quality with physical and socio-economic drivers.

  1. Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wada, Yoshi; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater forms an integral part of the global hydrological cycle and is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. It buffers variable recharge rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of drought as well as evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. Moreover, although lateral groundwater flows are often slow, they cross topographic and administrative boundaries at appreciable rates. Despite the importance of groundwater, most global scale hydrological models do not consider surface water-groundwater interactions or include a lateral groundwater flow component. The main reason of this omission is the lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information needed to arrive at a more realistic representation of the groundwater system, i.e. including information on aquifer depths and the presence of confining layers. The latter holds vital information on the accessibility and quality of the global groundwater resource. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model comprising confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. Aquifers properties were based on newly derived estimates of aquifer depths (de Graaf et al., 2014b) and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. They were further parameterized using available global datasets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014). In a sensitivity analysis the model was run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and corresponding recharge (Wada et al., 2012, de Graaf et al. 2014a) were evaluated. The resulting estimates of groundwater depletion are lower than

  2. Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

  3. Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

  4. Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

  5. Virtual water hegemony: the role of agribusiness in global water governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sojamo, S.; Keulertz, M.; Warner, J.F.; Allan, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    The recent global food crises have highlighted how the agro-food system tends to be subject to powerful agribusiness players, with thus far unidentified consequences for global water security. By connecting hydro-hegemony and virtual water concepts, this study illustrates the Western dominance over

  6. How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

  7. Parameter counting in models with global symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joshua [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: jb454@cornell.edu; Grossman, Yuval [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: yuvalg@lepp.cornell.edu

    2009-05-18

    We present rules for determining the number of physical parameters in models with exact flavor symmetries. In such models the total number of parameters (physical and unphysical) needed to described a matrix is less than in a model without the symmetries. Several toy examples are studied in order to demonstrate the rules. The use of global symmetries in studying the minimally supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) is examined.

  8. Link prediction in the network of global virtual water trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-04-01

    , population and fertilizer use, together with link properties (such as the distance between nodes), are the major factors driving the links creation; on the other hand, population, distance, and gross domestic product are essential to model the flux entity. The results are promising since the model is able to correctly predict the 85% of the 16422 food-trade links (15% are missed), by spuriously adding to the real network only the 5% of non-existing links. The link-prediction error, evaluated as the sum of the percentage of missed and spurious links, is around 20% and it is constant over the study period. Only the 0.01% of the global virtual water flow is traded along missed links and an even lower flow is added by the spurious links (0.003%).

  9. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  10. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  11. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    House Case The Nano Solar Case The Master Cat Case The Pitfalls Of The Blue Ocean Strategy - Implications Of "The Six Paths Framework" Network-Based Innovation - Combining Exploration and Exploitation? Innovating New Business Models in Inter-firm Collaboration NEW Global Business Models - What Did...

  12. Global Stability of SEIRS Model in Epidemiology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柏灵; 王克

    2002-01-01

    In this article,an infectious model with saturation effect is considered,By using compound matrix theory and a series of theorems associated to qualitative theory of differential equations which are introduced by Muldowney and Micheal Li,we study globally stable problem of the model.

  13. Historical patterns and drivers of global crop water demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, D.; Lobell, D. B.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change expected to subject staple crops in major growing regions to increased heat exposure, a critical question for agriculture and global food security is the degree to which crop water demand is also likely to change. Recent work has explored the relationship between extreme temperatures and crop water demand, finding that vapor pressure deficit (VPD), through its dependence on both temperature and humidity, provides a very good meteorological predictor of water stress. However, assessing crop water demand solely through atmospheric conditions ignores the roles of radiation and transpiration efficiency, which are increased through elevated CO2. We provide a 60-year global assessment of crop water demand in the world's major growing areas, comparing trends and drivers across key growing regions. We find that an atmospheric-based demand measure can differ significantly from that of a crop-specific sink-based approach that incorporates radiation and CO2 effects, sometimes enough to reverse the sign of historical trends. We also find that these changes differ significantly by region, and that multi-decadal trends can mask large decadal swings. To our knowledge, our work is the first to use global meteorological datasets in a global analysis of crop water demand, and should serve as a valuable reference for future work examining the interaction of hydrological, temperature, and CO2 changes on crop yields.

  14. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and ModelGlobal Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation ModelGlobal Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  15. Using global analysis models of water resources as an initial measure in management proposals concerning the artificial recharge of aquifers; Empleo de modelos de analisis global de recursos hidricos como primera actuacion a emprender en propuestas de gestion que contemplen operaciones de recarga artificial de acuiferos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murillo, J. M.; Navarro, J. A.

    2008-07-01

    This paper discusses artificial recharge not as an individual component disconnected from the other elements that make up a system of water resources, but as an integrated part of such a system, one that is interrelated with all the others, such that any action affecting a given element may affect the recharge operation, and vice versa. The methodology applied throughout this study is based on the technique of systems analysis, and makes use of the AQUATOOL software package with respect to assessing guarantees, water availability for the artificial recharge operation and the suitability of the host aquifer. The results obtained show that it is necessary, in the first place, to draw up a global model of water resources, incorporating all the elements that constitute the system; then, taking into account the results obtained, a viability analysis should be made of the artificial recharge operation, by means of a numerical model of the relevant parameters for the aquifer(s) in question. This model should specify in detail the infiltration operation proposed. If deemed appropriate, and either before or after drawing up the parameter model, a pilot artificial recharge plant can be constructed, so that a small-scale assay may be made of specific aspects of the artificial recharge; in any case, such a pilot plant should always be constructed after obtaining the global analysis model of water resources. The practical application described in this paper refers to the Quiebrajano-Viboras water exploitation system, which is located in the province of Jaen (Spain). (Author) 43 refs.

  16. Global distribution and sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.; Harrison, J. A.; Kroeze, C.; Bakker, E. J.; Seitzinger, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    Here we describe, test, and apply a spatially explicit, global model for predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by rivers to coastal waters (NEWS-DIN). NEWS-DIN was developed as part of an internally consistent suite of global nutrient export models. Modeled and measured DIN export values agree well (calibration R2 = 0.79), and NEWS-DIN is relatively free of bias. NEWS-DIN predicts: DIN yields ranging from 0.0004 to 5217 kg N km-2 yr-1 with the highest DIN yields occurring in Europe and South East Asia; global DIN export to coastal waters of 25 Tg N yr-1, with 16 Tg N yr-1 from anthropogenic sources; biological N2 fixation is the dominant source of exported DIN; and globally, and on every continent except Africa, N fertilizer is the largest anthropogenic source of DIN export to coastal waters.

  17. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Singh

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of ''dangerous'' climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21 indicate increases in discharge which vary from <1% to 42% although, in some cases, discharge decreases by as much as 20%. Six of the GCMs suggest overall increases in river flow to Loktak Lake (2–27% whilst the other results in a modest (6% decline. In contrast, the Group 2 scenarios lead to an almost linear increase in total river flow to Loktak Lake with increasing temperature (up to 27% for 6 °C, although two sub-catchments experience reductions in mean discharge for the smallest temperature increases. In all but one Group 1 scenario, and all the Group 2 scenarios, Loktak Lake water levels are higher, regularly reaching the top of a downstream hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the

  18. A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Masui

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs. SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper, water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and major human activities such as water withdrawal and reservoir operation. It simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Withdrawal to Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water withdrawal from a river over the potential daily water consumption demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that by 2071–2100 the population living under severely water stressed conditions for SSP1-5 will reach 2588–2793 × 106 (39–42% of total population, 3966–4298 × 106 (46–50%, 5334–5643 × 106 (52–55%, 3427–3786 × 106 (40–45%, 3164–3379 × 106 (46–49%, respectively, if climate policies are not adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and climate global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the present day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic

  19. Global modeling of nitrate and ammonium aerosols using EQSAM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.; Penner, J. E.

    2009-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols, particles suspending in air, are important as they affect human health, air quality, and visibility as well as climate. Sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, chloride and sodium are among the most important inorganic aerosol species in the atmosphere. These compounds are hygroscopic and absorb water under almost all ambient environmental conditions. The uptake of water alters the aerosol size, and causes water to become the constituent with the largest atmospheric aerosol mass, especially when the aerosols grow into fog, haze or clouds. Furthermore, several global model studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in nitrogen emissions could produce enough nitrate in aerosols to offset the expected decline in sulfate forcing by 2100 for the extreme IPCC A2 scenario (Bauer et al., 2007). Although nitrate and ammonium were identified as significant anthropogenic sources of aerosols by a number of modeling studies, most global aerosol models still exclude ammonium-nitrate when the direct aerosol forcing is studied. In this study, the computationally efficient equilibrium model, EQSAM3, is incorporated into the UMICH-IMPACT-nitrate model using the hybrid dynamical solution method (Feng and Penner, 2007). The partitioning of nitrate and ammonium along with the corresponding water uptake is evaluated by comparing the model to the EQUISOLVE II method used in Feng and Penner (2007). The model is also evaluated by comparison with the AERONET data base and satellite-based aerosol optical depths.

  20. Global change and water resources in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. C.; Hirsch, R. M.

    2010-03-01

    We are in the midst of a continental-scale, multi-year experiment in the United States, in which we have not defined our testable hypotheses or set the duration and scope of the experiment, which poses major water-resources challenges for the 21st century. What are we doing? We are expanding population at three times the national growth rate in our most water-scarce region, the southwestern United States, where water stress is already great and modeling predicts decreased streamflow by the middle of this century. We are expanding irrigated agriculture from the west into the east, particularly to the southeastern states, where increased competition for ground and surface water has urban, agricultural, and environmental interests at odds, and increasingly, in court. We are expanding our consumption of pharmaceutical and personal care products to historic high levels and disposing them in surface and groundwater, through sewage treatment plants and individual septic systems. These substances are now detectable at very low concentrations and we have documented significant effects on aquatic species, particularly on fish reproduction function. We don’t yet know what effects on human health may emerge, nor do we know if we need to make large investments in water treatment systems, which were not designed to remove these substances. These are a few examples of our national-scale experiment. In addition to these water resources challenges, over which we have some control, climate change models indicate that precipitation and streamflow patterns will change in coming decades, with western mid-latitude North America generally drier. We have already documented trends in more rain and less snow in western mountains. This has large implications for water supply and storage, and groundwater recharge. We have documented earlier snowmelt peak spring runoff in northeastern and northwestern States, and western montane regions. Peak runoff is now about two weeks earlier than it was

  1. A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartout, Pascal

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

  2. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  3. An Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Drinking Water Access to Climate-related Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, M.; Banerjee, O.; Christenson, E.; Holcomb, D.; Hamrick, L.; Bartram, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global drinking water access targets are formulated around "sustainable access." Global climate change (GCC) and associated hazards threaten the sustainability of drinking water supply. Extensive literature exists on the impacts of GCC on precipitation and water resources. However, the literature lacks a credible analysis of the vulnerability of global drinking water access. This research reports on an analysis of the current vulnerability of drinking water access due to three climate-related hazardous events: cyclone, drought and flood. An ArcGIS database was built incorporating the following: population density, hazardous event frequency, drinking water technologies in use and adaptive capacity. Two global grids were incorporated first: (1) LandScanTM global population distribution; and (2) frequency of cyclone, drought and flood from ~1980-2000 from Columbia University Center for Hazards Risk Research (CHRR). Population density was used to characterize cells as urban or rural and country-level urban/rural drinking water technologies in use were added based on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme data. Expert assessment of the resilience of each technology to each hazardous event based on WHO/DFID Vision 2030 were quantified and added to the database. Finally, country-level adaptive capacity was drawn from the "readiness" parameter of the Global Adaptation Index (GaIn). ArcGIS Model Builder and Python were used to automate the addition of datasets. This presentation will report on the results of this analysis, the first credible attempt to assess the vulnerability of global drinking water access to climate-related hazardous events. This analysis has yielded country-level scores and maps displaying the ranking of exposure score (for flood, drought, cyclone, and all three in aggregate) and the corresponding country-level vulnerability scores and rankings incorporating the impact of drinking water technologies and adaptive capacity (Figure 1).

  4. A Theoretical Model of Water and Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Q.; Konar, M.; Reimer, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Lin, X.; Zeng, R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an essential factor of agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of food commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of a small open economy that explicitly incorporates water resources. The model emphasizes three tradeoffs involving water decision-making that are important yet not always considered within the existing literature. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different sectors when there is a shock to one of the sectors only, such as trade liberalization and consequent higher demand for the product. A second tradeoff concerns the possibility that there may or may not be substitutes for water, such as increased use of sophisticated irrigation technology as a means to increase crop output in the absence of higher water availability. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using products. A number of propositions are proven. For example, while trade liberalization tends to increase water use, increased pressure on water supplies can be moderated by way of a tax that is derivable with observable economic phenomena. Another example is that increased riskiness of water availability tends to cause water users to use less water than would be the case under profit maximization. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  5. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  6. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, Petra; Douville, Hervé; Güntner, Andreas; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-03-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  7. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  8. Frequently asked questions about global modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letellier, Christophe; Aguirre, Luis A.; Freitas, U. S.

    2009-06-01

    When a global model is attempted from experimental data, some preprocessing might be required. Therefore it is only natural to wonder what kind of effects the preprocessing might have on the modeling procedure. This concern is manifested in the form of recurrent frequently asked questions, such as "how does the preprocessing affect the underlying dynamics?" This paper aims at providing answers to important questions related to (i) data interpolation, (ii) data smoothing, (iii) data-estimated derivatives, (iv) model structure selection, and (v) model validation. The answers provided will hopefully remove some of those doubts and one shall be more confident not only on global modeling but also on various data analyses which may be also dependent on data preprocessing.

  9. Looking at the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Floerke, Martina; Eisner, Stefanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    The human water demand for agriculture, industry, energy and domestic is less than ten per cent of the global freshwater production of around 54,000 km3 per year. Water is distributed unequally in time and space. Not a new insight, but when we zoom in and look at country and regional level and monthly time scale the global picture is dispatching into areas and periods of water abundance and water scarcity, which we can quantify. This study uses the multi-model approach of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to build up a consistent set of global water scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment applies three water scenarios based on feasible combinations of two different RCPs and three SSPs, then five different hydrological models are used to estimate water availability and three water use models to estimate water demand from different sectors. Results are shown as indicators for e.g. water stress and water dependency between countries for present time and for future projections up to 2050. The alterations to previous studies are the multi-model approach and the finer temporal monthly scale, showing the temporal and spatial diversity of water demand and availability. One example scenario is based on the combination of SSP2 and RCP6.0. While in 2010 17 countries out of 249 facing severe water stress on an annual basis, the number is likely to increase up to 26 countries by 2050. Looking at the monthly time dimension 51 countries with altogether 3.8 billion people are under severe water stress in at least one month in 2010. This will rise up to 57 countries and 4.9 billion people by 2050. Main driver of this development will be the rising water demand of a growing population and to a lesser extend the changing distribution of water availability. Model biases are inevitable in

  10. Integrating Biology, Chemistry, and Mathematics to Evaluate Global Water Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosal, Erica; Lawrence, Carol; Austin, Rodney

    2010-01-01

    An interdisciplinary and context-driven course focused on global water issues was developed and taught at the college level. Students designed a semester-long research project, collected and analyzed data, and ultimately presented their results and conclusions to the larger community. As a result of the course, students' science literacy improved…

  11. Integrating Biology, Chemistry, and Mathematics to Evaluate Global Water Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosal, Erica; Lawrence, Carol; Austin, Rodney

    2010-01-01

    An interdisciplinary and context-driven course focused on global water issues was developed and taught at the college level. Students designed a semester-long research project, collected and analyzed data, and ultimately presented their results and conclusions to the larger community. As a result of the course, students' science literacy improved…

  12. Global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. C.

    1983-01-01

    A global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere is defined. An introduction to numerical methods for solving the MHD equations is given with emphasis on the shock-capturing technique. Finally, results concerning the shape of the magnetosphere and the plasma flows inside the magnetosphere are presented.

  13. A global energy model with fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lechon, Yolanda [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: yolanda.lechon@ciemat.es; Cabal, H. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Varela, M. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Saez, R. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Eherer, C. [TUG/ITP, Petersgasse 16, 8010 Graz (Austria); Baumann, M. [TUG/ITP, Petersgasse 16, 8010 Graz (Austria); Dueweke, J. [IPP, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Hamacher, T. [IPP, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Tosato, G.C. [EFDA Close Support Unit, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2005-11-15

    Some analysts expect a complete shift of the global energy system in the 21st century, away from fossil fuels to either renewable sources or new nuclear technologies [L. Schrattenholzer, A roadmap to a sustainable global energy system, in: Proceedings of the International Energy Workshop, Paris, June, 2004]. Fusion might become a corner stone of the future energy system. The construction and successful operation of ITER is a necessary condition to reach this goal. Within the Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) programme guided by EFDA, a consortium between CIEMAT, TU Graz (TUG), ENEA and IPP open to other European energy and fusion research laboratories has been formed to analyse the possible role of fusion in the future energy system. Using TIMES, a single region global model has been constructed including fusion as an energy option. Background of the model is a detailed bottom-up description of the complete energy system starting from mining process up to the various demand sectors. The model dynamics is determined by an optimisation process, in which total surplus is maximized. The paper will present the first attempts to set-up a single region global model and the first results.

  14. Integrated water resources modelling for assessing sustainable water governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoulikaris, Charalampos; Ganoulis, Jacques; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Makropoulos, Christos; Gkatzogianni, Eleni; Michas, Spyros

    2015-04-01

    Climatic variations and resulting future uncertainties, increasing anthropogenic pressures, changes in political boundaries, ineffective or dysfunctional governance of natural resources and environmental degradation are some of the most fundamental challenges with which worldwide initiatives fostering the "think globally, act locally" concept are concerned. Different initiatives target the protection of the environment through sustainable development; Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM) in the case of internationally shared waters are frameworks that have gained wide political acceptance at international level and form part of water resources management planning and implementation on a global scale. Both concepts contribute in promoting economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability. Inspired by these holistic management approaches, the present work describes an effort that uses integrated water resources modelling for the development of an integrated, coherent and flexible water governance tool. This work in which a sequence of computer based models and tools are linked together, aims at the evaluation of the sustainable operation of projects generating renewable energy from water as well as the sustainability of agricultural demands and environmental security in terms of environmental flow under various climatic and operational conditions. More specifically, catchment hydrological modelling is coupled with dams' simulation models and thereafter with models dedicated to water resources management and planning,while the bridging of models is conducted through geographic information systems and custom programming tools. For the case of Mesta/Nestos river basin different priority rules in the dams' operational schedule (e.g. priority given to power production as opposed to irrigation needs and vice versa), as well as different irrigation demands, e.g. current water demands as opposed to

  15. Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Robert M.; Li, Zhiwei; Buchberger, Steven G.

    2011-12-01

    It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore, potentially, impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems. The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort. The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality, the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change. A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. An analysis of the water treatment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC, pH, and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTP. The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters. Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation. Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions. However, it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by

  16. GLOBAL ATTRACTIVITY AND GLOBAL EXPONENTIAL STABILITY FOR DELAYED HOPFIELD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒲志林; 徐道义

    2001-01-01

    Some global properties such as global attractivity and global exponential stability for delayed Hopfield neural networks model, under the weaker assumptions on nonlinear activation functions, are concerned. By constructing suitable Liapunov function, some simpler criteria for global attractivity and global exponential stability for Hopfield continuous neural networks with time delays are presented.

  17. Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falkenmark, Malin

    2013-11-13

    As water is an essential component of the planetary life support system, water deficiency constitutes an insecurity that has to be overcome in the process of socio-economic development. The paper analyses the origin and appearance of blue as well as green water scarcity on different scales and with particular focus on risks to food production and water supply for municipalities and industry. It analyses water scarcity originating from both climatic phenomena and water partitioning disturbances on different scales: crop field, country level and the global circulation system. The implications by 2050 of water scarcity in terms of potential country-level water deficits for food self-reliance are analysed, and the compensating dependence on trade in virtual water for almost half the world population is noted. Planetary-scale conditions for sustainability of the global water circulation system are discussed in terms of a recently proposed Planetary Freshwater Boundary, and the consumptive water use reserve left to be shared between water requirements for global food production, fuelwood production and carbon sequestration is discussed. Finally, the importance of a paradigm shift in the further conceptual development of water security is stressed, so that adequate attention is paid to water's fundamental role in both natural and socio-economic systems.

  18. A global perspective on changing sustainable urban water supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrel Jenerette, G.; Larsen, Larissa

    2006-04-01

    Ensuring the sustainable supply of water for the world's largest cities has been and is a current challenge. Future trends in urban water consumption patterns will be determined by changes in population concentration, per-capita water use, climate, and the proportion of water retained for the production of instream ecosystem services. The objective of our research was to identify patterns of renewable water availability and urban consumption throughout the globe between the years 2000 and 2015. To better understand the interactions between urban consumption and regional availability of renewable water we used a modified ecological footprint (EF) approach. Urban water footprint areas were differentially sensitive to changes in consumption and changes in water availability; our results suggest climate induced reductions in water availability may be more of a concern than population growth or increased per-capita for securing continued supplies of water to large cities. Our results provide a comprehensive description of global urban water demand and highlight the variation between consumption and availability relationships for the 524 largest cities.

  19. Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc F P; van Beek, Ludovicus P H

    2012-08-09

    Groundwater is a life-sustaining resource that supplies water to billions of people, plays a central part in irrigated agriculture and influences the health of many ecosystems. Most assessments of global water resources have focused on surface water, but unsustainable depletion of groundwater has recently been documented on both regional and global scales. It remains unclear how the rate of global groundwater depletion compares to the rate of natural renewal and the supply needed to support ecosystems. Here we define the groundwater footprint (the area required to sustain groundwater use and groundwater-dependent ecosystem services) and show that humans are overexploiting groundwater in many large aquifers that are critical to agriculture, especially in Asia and North America. We estimate that the size of the global groundwater footprint is currently about 3.5 times the actual area of aquifers and that about 1.7 billion people live in areas where groundwater resources and/or groundwater-dependent ecosystems are under threat. That said, 80 per cent of aquifers have a groundwater footprint that is less than their area, meaning that the net global value is driven by a few heavily overexploited aquifers. The groundwater footprint is the first tool suitable for consistently evaluating the use, renewal and ecosystem requirements of groundwater at an aquifer scale. It can be combined with the water footprint and virtual water calculations, and be used to assess the potential for increasing agricultural yields with renewable groundwaterref. The method could be modified to evaluate other resources with renewal rates that are slow and spatially heterogeneous, such as fisheries, forestry or soil.

  20. [Comment on “GEWEX: The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment”] More global water balance uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodda, John C.

    I concur strongly with Chahine's January 14, 1992, Eos article on GEWEX and support his response to Dincer's letter (Eos, June 16, 1992) emphasizing that “our quantitative knowledge of the hydrological cycle remains surprisingly poor.” This is despite the magnificent report on the world water balance to which Dincer refers and his allusion that the existence of a low residual in closing the water balance indicates low errors of measurement of the global budget components.

  1. Accelerated shallow water modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandham, Rajesh; Medina, David; Warburton, Timothy

    2015-04-01

    ln this talk we will describe our ongoing developments in accelerated numerical methods for modeling tsunamis, and oceanic fluid flows using two dimensional shallow water model and/or three dimensional incompressible Navier Stokes model discretized with high order discontinuous Galerkin methods. High order discontinuous Galerkin methods can be computationally demanding, requiring extensive computational time to simulate real time events on traditional CPU architectures. However, recent advances in computing architectures and hardware aware algorithms make it possible to reduce simulation time and provide accurate predictions in a timely manner. Hence we tailor these algorithms to take advantage of single instruction multiple data (SIMD) architecture that is seen in modern many core compute devices such as GPUs. We will discuss our unified and extensive many-core programming library OCCA that alleviates the need to completely re-design the solvers to keep up with constantly evolving parallel programming models and hardware architectures. We will present performance results for the flow simulations demonstrating performance leveraging multiple different multi-threading APIs on GPU and CPU targets.

  2. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2014-03-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. WATER DIVERSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.B. Case

    1999-12-21

    The distribution of seepage in the proposed repository will be highly variable due in part to variations in the spatial distribution of percolations. The performance of the drip shield and the backfill system may divert the water flux around the waste packages to the invert. Diversion will occur along the drift surface, within the backfill, at the drip shield, and at the Waste Package (WP) surface, even after the drip shield and WP have been breached by corrosion. The purpose and objective of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) are to develop a conceptual model and constitutive properties for bounding the volume and rate of seepage water that flows around the drip shield (CRWMS M&O 1999c). This analysis model is to be compatible with the selected repository conceptual design (Wilkins and Heath, 1999) and will be used to evaluate the performance of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS), and to provide input to the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Model. This model supports the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) postclosure performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (SR). This document characterizes the hydrological constitutive properties of the backfill and invert materials (Section 6.2) and a third material that represents a mixture of the two. These include the Overton Sand which is selected as a backfill (Section 5.2), crushed tuff which is selected as the invert (Section 5.1), and a combined material (Sections 5.9 and 5.10) which has retention and hydraulic conductivity properties intermediate to the selected materials for the backfill and the invert. The properties include the grain size distribution, the dry bulk density and porosity, the moisture retention, the intrinsic permeability, the relative permeability, and the material thermal properties. The van Genuchten relationships with curve fit parameters are used to define the basic retention relationship of moisture potential to volumetric moisture content, and the basic relationship of unsaturated

  4. An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric

    2017-01-01

    We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

  5. Global Atmospheric Models for Cosmic Ray Detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Will, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The knowledge of atmospheric parameters -- such as temperature, pressure, and humidity -- is very important for a proper reconstruction of air showers, especially with the fluorescence technique. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) provides altitude-dependent profiles of these state variables of the atmosphere and several more. Every three hours, a new data set on 23 constant pressure level plus an additional surface values is available for the entire globe. These GDAS data are now used in the standard air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The validity of the data was verified by comparisons with monthly models that were averaged from on-site meteorological radio soundings and weather station measurements obtained at the Observatory in Malarg\\"ue. Comparisons of reconstructions using the GDAS data and the monthly models are also presented. Since GDAS is a global model, the data can potentially be used for other cosmic and gamma ray detectors. Several studies were already performed ...

  6. Synchronising data sources and filling gaps by global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Rafael; Crochemore, Louise; Hasan, Abdulghani; Pineda, Luis; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

    2017-04-01

    The advances in remote sensing in the last decades combined with the creation of different open hydrological databases have generated a very large amount of useful information for global hydrological modelling. Working with this huge number of datasets to set up a global hydrological model can constitute challenges such as multiple data formats and big heterogeneity on spatial and temporal resolutions. Different initiatives have made effort to homogenize some of these data sources, i.e. GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), HYDROSHEDS (SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GLWD (Global Lake and Wetland Database) for runoff, watershed delineation and water bodies respectively. However, not all the related issues are covered or homogenously solved at the global scale and new information is continuously available to complete the current ones. This work presents synchronising efforts to make use of different global data sources needed to set up the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) at the global scale. These data sources included: topography for watershed delineation, gauging stations of river flow, and extention of lakes, flood plains and land cover classes. A new database with approximately 100 000 subbasins, with an average area of 1000 km2, was created. Subbasin delineation was done combining Global Width Database for Large River (GWD-LR), SRTM high-resolution elevation data and a number of forced points of interest (gauging station of river flow, lakes, reservoirs, urban areas, nuclear plants and areas with high risk of flooding). Regarding flow data, the locations of GRDC stations were checked or placed along the river network when necessary, and completed with available information from national water services in data-sparse regions. A screening of doublet stations and associated time series was necessary to efficiently combine the two types of data sources. A total number about 21 000 stations were

  7. Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Portmann, Felix Theodor; Reinecke, Robert; Riedel, Claudia; Song, Qi; Zhang, Jing; Döll, Petra

    2016-07-01

    When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901-2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971-2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non

  8. The Contribution of Reservoirs to Global Land Surface Water Storage Variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tian; Nijssen, Bart; Gao, Huilin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2016-12-21

    Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They alter water fluxes at the land surface and impact surface water storage through water management regulations for diverse purposes such as irrigation, municipal water supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Although most developed countries have established sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the land surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records of reservoir storage are much more limited and not always shared. Furthermore, most land surface hydrological models do not represent the effects of water management activities. Here, the contribution of reservoirs to seasonal water storage variations is investigated using a large-scale water management model to simulate the effects of reservoir management at basin and continental scales. The model was run from 1948 to 2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.258 latitude–longitude. A total of 166 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total capacity of about 3900 km3 (nearly 60%of the globally integrated reservoir capacity) were simulated. The global reservoir storage time series reflects the massive expansion of global reservoir capacity; over 30 000 reservoirs have been constructed during the past half century, with a mean absolute interannual storage variation of 89 km3. The results indicate that the average reservoir-induced seasonal storage variation is nearly 700 km3 or about 10%of the global reservoir storage. For some river basins, such as the Yellow River, seasonal reservoir storage variations can be as large as 72%of combined snow water equivalent and soil moisture storage.

  9. Testing empirical relationships between global sea-level and global temperature in long climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.

    2009-04-01

    Estimations of future global sea-level rise brought about by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin are based on simulations with coarse-resolution global climate models, which imposes some limitations on the skill of future projections because some of the processes that modulate the heat and fresh water flux into may not be adequately represented. To fill this gap, and until more complex climate models are available, some ad-hoc methods have been proposed that link the rise in global average temperature with the global mean sea-level rise. The statistical methods can be calibrated with observations and applied to the future global temperature rise simulated by climate models. This methods can be tested in the virtual reality simulated by global atmosphere.ocean models. Thereby, deficiencies can be identified and improvement suggested. The output of 1000-year long climate model simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G over the past millennium has been used to determine the skill of different predictors to describe the variations of the rate of sea-level change in the simulation. These predictor variables comprise the global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change with time and the heat-flux into the ocean. It is found that, in the framework of this climate simulation, global mean temperature is not a good predictor for the rate-of-change of sea-level. The correlation between both variables is not stable along the simulations and even its sign changes. A better predictor is the rate-of-change of temperature. Its correlation with the rate-of-change of sea-level is much more stable, it is always positive along the simulation, and there exists a lead-lag relationship between both that can be understood in simple physical terms. The best predictor among those tested is the heat-flux into the ocean. Its correlation is higher and there exists no time lag to the rate-of-change of sea-level, as expected

  10. Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning; hide

    2017-01-01

    Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems13. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales314. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data15 and process-based models16,17 to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance36,9,11,12,14. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

  11. Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tamea

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986–2010. The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible. The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010. In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986, a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km, with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

  12. Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tamea

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986–2010. The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury and non-edible. The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade.

    Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plan-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010. In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986, a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km, with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

  13. The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model (CGEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, George H.; DeRosa, M. L.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2013-07-01

    The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model, or CGEM, is a collaborative effort from the UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory (SSL), Stanford University, and Lockheed-Martin. In work that led up to the selection of this project, the team demonstrated its capability to use sequences of vector magnetograms and Dopplergrams from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument aboard the SDO to drive a magnetofrictional (MF) model of the coronal magnetic field in AR 11158, which produced an X2.2 flare. We will implement this MF model in spherical coordinates to enable real-time, long-term modeling of the non-potential coronal magnetic field, both globally and for individual active region (ARs). The model's Earth-facing hemisphere will be driven using electric fields derived from the observed evolution of photospheric line-of-sight magnetic fields and electric currents. Far-side data inputs will be from an existing flux transport code, combined with HMI far-side observations of new active regions, with empirical parametrizations of orientation and flux. Because this model includes large-scale coronal electric currents, it is a substantial improvement over existing real-time global coronal models, which assume potential fields. Data products available from the model will include: 1) the evolving photospheric electric field, Poynting flux, and helicity flux; 2) estimates of coronal free energy and non-potential geometry and topology; 3) initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for MHD modeling of active regions; and 4) time-dependent boundary conditions and flux tube expansion factors for MHD and empirical solar wind models. Unstable configurations found from MF models will be dynamically evolved with local and global MHD codes. Modules used to derive surface electric fields from magnetic evolution will be incorporated into the SDO/HMI data pipeline, and data products will be distributed through the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) and directly to space

  14. Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

    2017-04-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the

  15. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  16. Global dynamical model of the cardiovascular system

    CERN Document Server

    Kholodov, A S; Kholodov, Y A; Nadolsky, A A; Shushlebin, A N

    2007-01-01

    Blood system functions are very diverse and important for most processes in human organism. One of its primary functions is matter transport among different parts of the organism including tissue supplying with oxygen, carbon dioxide excretion, drug propagation etc. Forecasting of these processes under normal conditions and in the presence of different pathologies like atherosclerosis, loss of blood, anatomical abnormalities, pathological changing in chemical transformations and others is significant issue for many physiologists. In this connection should be pointed out that global processes are of special interest as they include feedbacks and interdependences among different regions of the organism. Thus the main goal of this work is to develop the model allowing to describe effectively blood flow in the whole organism. As we interested in global processes the models of the four vascular trees (arterial and venous parts of systemic and pulmonary circulation) must be closed with heart and peripheral circulat...

  17. Globalization of water and food through international trade: impacts on food security, resilience and justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Odorico, P.; Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.; Suweis, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    The global distribution of water resources in general depends on geographic conditions but can be (virtually) modified by humans through mechanisms of globalization, such as trade, that make food commodities available to populations living far from the production regions. While trade is expected to improve access to food and (virtual) water, its impact on the global food system and its vulnerability to shocks remains poorly understood. It is also unclear who benefits from trade and whether it contributes to inequality and justice in resource redistribution. We reconstruct the global patterns of food trade and show with a simple model how the ongoing intensification of imports and exports has eroded the resilience of the global food system. Drawing on human rights theory, we investigate the relationship between inequality and injustice in access to water and food. We assess the fulfillment of positive and negative water and food rights and evaluate the obligations arising from the need to ensure that these rights are met throughout the world. We find that trade enhances the vulnerability to shocks but overall increase the number of people whose water and food rights are met.

  18. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  19. Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

  20. Confronting Future Risks of Global Water Stress and Sustainability: Avoided Changes Versus Adaptive Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C.; Paltsev, S.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Winchester, N.; Chen, H.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.

    2016-12-01

    We examine the fate of global water resources under a range of self-consistent socio-economic projections using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) under a range of plausible mitigation and adaptation scenarios of development to the water-energy-land systems and against an assessment of the results from the UN COP-21 meeting. We assess the trends of an index of managed water stress as well as unmet water demands as simulated by the Water Resource System within the IGSM framework (IGSM-WRS). The WRS is forced by the simulations of the global climate response, variations in regional climate pattern changes, as well as the socio-economic drivers from the IGSM scenarios. We focus on the changes in water-stress metrics in the coming decades and going into the latter half of this century brought about by our projected climate and socio-economic changes, as well as the total (additional) populations affected by increased stress. We highlight selected basins to demonstrate sensitivities and interplay between supply and demand, the uncertainties in global climate sensitivity as well as regional climate change, and their implications to assessing and reducing water risks and the populations affected by water scarcity. We also evaluate the impact of explicitly representing irrigated land and water scarcity in an economy-wide model on food prices, bioenergy production and deforestation both with and without a global carbon policy. We highlight the importance of adaptive measures that will be required, worldwide, to meet surface-water shortfalls even under more aggressive and certainly under intermediate climate mitigation pathways - and further analyses is presented in this context quantifying risks averted and their associated costs. In addition, we also demonstrate that the explicit representation of irrigated land within this intergrated modeling frameowork has a small impact on food, bioenergy and deforestation outcomes within the scenarios considered

  1. Improved but unsustainable: accounting for sachet water in post-2015 goals for global safe water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, Justin

    2012-12-01

    The advent and rapid spread of sachet drinking water in West Africa presents a new challenge for providing sustainable access to global safe water. Sachet water has expanded drinking water access and is often of sufficient quality to serve as an improved water source for Millennium Development Goals (MDG) monitoring purposes, yet sachets are an unsustainable water delivery vehicle due to their overwhelming plastic waste burden. Monitoring of primary drinking water sources in West Africa generally ignores sachet water, despite its growing ubiquity. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is unlikely to meet the MDG Target for drinking water provision, and post-2015 monitoring activities may depend upon rapid adaptability to local drinking water trends.

  2. Preliminary ECLSS waste water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Donald L.; Holder, Donald W., Jr.; Alexander, Kevin; Shaw, R. G.; Hayase, John K.

    1991-01-01

    A preliminary waste water model for input to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Water Processor (WP) has been generated for design purposes. Data have been compiled from various ECLSS tests and flight sample analyses. A discussion of the characterization of the waste streams comprising the model is presented, along with a discussion of the waste water model and the rationale for the inclusion of contaminants in their respective concentrations. The major objective is to establish a methodology for the development of a waste water model and to present the current state of that model.

  3. Preliminary ECLSS waste water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Donald L.; Holder, Donald W., Jr.; Alexander, Kevin; Shaw, R. G.; Hayase, John K.

    1991-01-01

    A preliminary waste water model for input to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Water Processor (WP) has been generated for design purposes. Data have been compiled from various ECLSS tests and flight sample analyses. A discussion of the characterization of the waste streams comprising the model is presented, along with a discussion of the waste water model and the rationale for the inclusion of contaminants in their respective concentrations. The major objective is to establish a methodology for the development of a waste water model and to present the current state of that model.

  4. Improving Global Health Education: Development of a Global Health Competency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A.; Weist, Elizabeth M.; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E.; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R.; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R.; Klag, Michael J.; Lopez, Mario Henry Rodriguez; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C.

    2014-01-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale. PMID:24445206

  5. High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekel, Jean-François; Cottam, Andrew; Gorelick, Noel; Belward, Alan S.

    2016-12-01

    The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and human wellbeing. Global data sets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced from inventories and national descriptions, statistical extrapolation of regional data and satellite imagery, but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge. Here, using three million Landsat satellite images, we quantify changes in global surface water over the past 32 years at 30-metre resolution. We record the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence. Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior, though new permanent bodies of surface water covering 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere. All continental regions show a net increase in permanent water, except Oceania, which has a fractional (one per cent) net loss. Much of the increase is from reservoir filling, although climate change is also implicated. Loss is more geographically concentrated than gain. Over 70 per cent of global net permanent water loss occurred in the Middle East and Central Asia, linked to drought and human actions including river diversion or damming and unregulated withdrawal. Losses in Australia and the USA linked to long-term droughts are also evident. This globally consistent, validated data set shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered to show how surface water is altered by human activities. We anticipate that this freely available data will improve the modelling of surface forcing, provide evidence of state and change in wetland ecotones (the transition areas between biomes), and inform water

  6. Global optimal design of ground water monitoring network using embedded kriging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Anirban; Datta, Bithin

    2009-01-01

    We present a methodology for global optimal design of ground water quality monitoring networks using a linear mixed-integer formulation. The proposed methodology incorporates ordinary kriging (OK) within the decision model formulation for spatial estimation of contaminant concentration values. Different monitoring network design models incorporating concentration estimation error, variance estimation error, mass estimation error, error in locating plume centroid, and spatial coverage of the designed network are developed. A big-M technique is used for reformulating the monitoring network design model to a linear decision model while incorporating different objectives and OK equations. Global optimality of the solutions obtained for the monitoring network design can be ensured due to the linear mixed-integer programming formulations proposed. Performances of the proposed models are evaluated for both field and hypothetical illustrative systems. Evaluation results indicate that the proposed methodology performs satisfactorily. These performance evaluation results demonstrate the potential applicability of the proposed methodology for optimal ground water contaminant monitoring network design.

  7. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-07-08

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.

  8. Towards a Global Upper Mantle Attenuation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaoglu, Haydar; Romanowicz, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Global anelastic tomography is crucial for addressing the nature of heterogeneity in the Earth's interior. The intrinsic attenuation manifests itself through dispersion and amplitude decay. These are contaminated by elastic effects such as (de)focusing and scattering. Therefore, mapping anelasticity accurately requires separation of elastic effects from the anelastic ones. To achieve this, a possible approach is to try and first predict elastic effects through the computation of seismic waveforms in a high resolution 3D elastic model, which can now be achieved accurately using numerical wavefield computations. Building upon the recent construction of such a whole mantle elastic and radially anisotropic shear velocity model (SEMUCB_WM1, French and Romanowicz, 2014), which will be used as starting model, our goal is to develop a higher resolution 3D attenuation model of the upper mantle based on full waveform inversion. As in the development of SEMUCB_WM1, forward modeling will be performed using the spectral element method, while the inverse problem will be treated approximately, using normal mode asymptotics. Both fundamental and overtone time domain long period waveforms (T>60s) will be used from a dataset of over 200 events observed at several hundred stations globally. Here we present preliminary results of synthetic tests, exploring different iterative inversion strategies.

  9. Water governance, resilience and global environmental change - a reassessment of integrated water resources management (IWRM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaz, V

    2007-01-01

    Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) is gaining increased acceptance among water policy makers and researchers as a way to create more effective governance institutions, leading towards integrated water development solutions for poverty alleviation, while addressing social, economic and environmental aspects of water challenges. However, global environmental change poses fundamental challenges to water policy makers as it implies vast scientific, and hence, policy uncertainty; its implications for international water governance initiatives remain unspecified, effectively hindering dialogue on how current IWRM initiatives should be modified. This paper addresses the lag between our growing understanding of resilient interconnected freshwater resources (and their governance) and the reforms being promoted by policy makers. In particular, there is a need to rethink some of IWRM's key components to better tackle the challenges posed by the complex behaviour of interconnected social-ecological systems and global environmental change.

  10. On the Global Water Productivity Distribution for Major Cereal Crops: some First Results from Satellite Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastiaanssen, W. G.; Verstegen, J. A.; Steduto, P.; Goudriaan, R.; Wada, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Feeding the world requires 70 percent more food for an additional 2.3 billion people by 2050. The increasing competition for water resources prompts the modern consumer society to become more efficient with scarce water resources. The water footprint of agriculture is hundred times more than the footprint for domestic water use, yet we do not fully know how much water is used in relation to the amount of food being produced. Water Productivity describes the crop yield per unit of water consumed and is the ultimate indicator for the efficiency of water use in agriculture. Our basic understanding of actual and benchmark values for Water Productivity is limited, partially because operational measurements and guidelines for Water Productivity do not currently exist. Remote sensing algorithms have been developed over the last 20 years to compute crop yield Y and evapotranspiration ET, often in an independent manner. The new WatPro and GlobWat algorithms are based on directly solving the Y/ET ratio. Several biophysical parameter and processes such as solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, stomatal aperture and soil moisture affect biomass production and crop transpiration simultaneously, and this enabled us to simplify the schematization of a Y/ET model. Global maps of wheat, rice and maize were prepared from various open-access data sources, and Y/ET was computed across a period of 10 years. The global distribution demonstrates that 66 percent of the world's agricultural land cultivated with wheat, rice and corn performs below average. Furthermore, Water Productivity in most countries exhibits a significant spatial variability. Therefore, there is significant scope to produce the same food - or more food - from less water resources if packages with good practices are locally implemented. The global maps of water productivity will be demonstrated, along with some country examples.

  11. WATER RESOURCES. Hydrologic connectivity constrains partitioning of global terrestrial water fluxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Stephen P; Noone, David; Bowen, Gabriel

    2015-07-10

    Continental precipitation not routed to the oceans as runoff returns to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration. Partitioning this evapotranspiration flux into interception, transpiration, soil evaporation, and surface water evaporation is difficult using traditional hydrological methods, yet critical for understanding the water cycle and linked ecological processes. We combined two large-scale flux-partitioning approaches to quantify evapotranspiration subcomponents and the hydrologic connectivity of bound, plant-available soil waters with more mobile surface waters. Globally, transpiration is 64 ± 13% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) of evapotranspiration, and 65 ± 26% of evaporation originates from soils and not surface waters. We estimate that 38 ± 28% of surface water is derived from the plant-accessed soil water pool. This limited connectivity between soil and surface waters fundamentally structures the physical and biogeochemical interactions of water transiting through catchments.

  12. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  13. Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

  14. Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth's interior and surface environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenaga, Jun; Planavsky, Noah J.; Evans, David A. D.

    2017-04-01

    The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth's history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3-4.5×1014 g yr-1 on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed. This article is part of the themed issue 'The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System'.

  15. Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth's interior and surface environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenaga, Jun; Planavsky, Noah J; Evans, David A D

    2017-05-28

    The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth's history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3-4.5×10(14) g yr(-1) on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed.This article is part of the themed issue 'The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Modelling water temperature in TOXSWA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, C.M.J.; Deneer, J.W.; Adriaanse, P.I.

    2010-01-01

    A reasonably accurate estimate of the water temperature is necessary for a good description of the degradation of plant protection products in water which is used in the surface water model TOXSWA. Based on a consideration of basic physical processes that describe the influence of weather on the

  17. The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

  18. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  19. Mycorrhizal fungi and global land surface models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzostek, E. R.; Fisher, J. B.; Shi, M.; Phillips, R.

    2013-12-01

    In the current generation of Land Surface Models (LSMs), the representation of coupled carbon (C) and nutrient cycles does not account for allocation of C by plants to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for limiting nutrients. Given that the amount of C transferred to mycorrhizae can exceed 20% of net primary production (NPP), mycorrhizae can supply over half of the nitrogen (N) needed to support NPP, and that large majority of plants form associations with mycorrhizae; integrating these mechanisms into LSMs may significantly alter our understanding of the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating climate change. Here, we present results from the integration of a mycorrhizal framework into a cutting-edge global plant nitrogen model -- Fixation & Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN; Fisher et al., 2010) -- that can be coupled into existing LSMs. In this mycorrhizal framework, the C cost of N acquisition varies as a function of mycorrhizal type with: (1) plants that support arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) benefiting when N is plentiful and (2) plants that support ectomycorrhizae (ECM) benefiting when N is limiting. At the plot scale (15 x 15m), the My-FUN model improved predictions of retranslocation, N uptake, and the amount of C transferred into the soil relative to the base model across 45 plots that vary in mycorrhizal type in Indiana, USA. At the ecosystem scale, when we coupled this new framework into the Community Land Model (CLM-CN), the model estimated lower C uptake than the base model and more accurately predicted C uptake at the Morgan Monroe State Forest AmeriFlux site. These results suggest that the inclusion of a mycorrhizal framework into LSMs will enhance our ability to predict feedbacks between global change and the terrestrial biosphere.

  20. Water resources sensitivity to the isolated effects of land use, water demand and climate change under 2 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisselink, Berny; Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad

    2017-04-01

    One of the key impacts of global change are the future water resources. These water resources are influenced by changes in land use (LU), water demand (WD) and climate change. Recent developments in scenario modelling opened new opportunities for an integrated assessment. However, for identifying water resource management strategies it is helpful to focus on the isolated effects of possible changes in LU, WD and climate that may occur in the near future. In this work, we quantify the isolated contribution of LU, WD and climate to the integrated total water resources assuming a linear model behavior. An ensemble of five EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 climate projections for the 31-year periods centered on the year of exceeding the global-mean temperature of 2 degree is used to drive the fully distributed hydrological model LISFLOOD for multiple river catchments in Europe. The JRC's Land Use Modelling Platform LUISA was used to obtain a detailed pan-European reference land use scenario until 2050. Water demand is estimated based on socio-economic (GDP, population estimates etc.), land use and climate projections as well. For each climate projection, four model runs have been performed including an integrated (LU, WD and climate) simulation and other three simulations to isolate the effect of LU, WD and climate. Changes relative to the baseline in terms of water resources indicators of the ensemble means of the 2 degree warming period and their associated uncertainties will reveal the integrated and isolated effect of LU, WD and climate change on water resources.

  1. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozdağ, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen; Hill, Judith; Podhorszki, Norbert; Pugmire, David

    2016-12-01

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named `Titan', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used `crustal corrections'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ˜30 s body-wave data with ˜60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ˜17 s body waves with ˜45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the resolution

  2. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  3. Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-01-01

    Compared with nutrient levels and habitat degradation, the importance of agricultural pesticides in surface water may have been underestimated due to a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis. Increasing pesticide contamination results in decreasing regional aquatic biodiversity, i.e., macroinvertebrate family richness is reduced by ∼30% at pesticide concentrations equaling the legally accepted regulatory threshold levels (RTLs). This study provides a comprehensive metaanalysis of 838 peer-reviewed studies (>2,500 sites in 73 countries) that evaluates, for the first time to our knowledge on a global scale, the exposure of surface waters to particularly toxic agricultural insecticides. We tested whether measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; i.e., quantified insecticide concentrations) exceed their RTLs and how risks depend on insecticide development over time and stringency of environmental regulation. Our analysis reveals that MICs occur rarely (i.e., an estimated 97.4% of analyses conducted found no MICs) and there is a complete lack of scientific monitoring data for ∼90% of global cropland. Most importantly, of the 11,300 MICs, 52.4% (5,915 cases; 68.5% of the sites) exceeded the RTL for either surface water (RTLSW) or sediments. Thus, the biological integrity of global water resources is at a substantial risk. RTLSW exceedances depend on the catchment size, sampling regime, and sampling date; are significantly higher for newer-generation insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids); and are high even in countries with stringent environmental regulations. These results suggest the need for worldwide improvements to current pesticide regulations and agricultural pesticide application practices and for intensified research efforts on the presence and effects of pesticides under real-world conditions. PMID:25870271

  4. Groundwater Development Stress: Global-Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M; Clark, Brian R; Ely, David M; Faunt, Claudia C

    2017-08-15

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  5. The role of seasonal water scarcity on water quality: a global analysis with case study in the Magdalena, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Sophia; Mulligan, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is not just a problem of its own right (hydrological drought) but cascades the hydro-economic system to create problems for crop growth and livestock (agricultural drought) and thus for wellbeing and economic productivity (economic drought). One of these cascades is the impact of reduced water quantity on water quality as a result of non-point source pollutant concentration in water bodies such as rivers, lakes and wetlands. This paper investigates the impact of seasonal water shortages on the quality of supplied water to urban centres with a view to better understanding how land use management can reduce dry-season pollutant spikes. We apply a widely used spatial hydrological model (WaterWorld) and its water quality index (the human footprint on water quality, HFWQ) to examine to what extent HFWQ of water flowing into urban water intakes is affected by flow seasonality and by typical "dry year" events. A global analysis shows trends across climatic and land use gradients and is followed by a regional analysis of the Magdalena basin in Colombia: a large basin with 79% of the countries population and a mixture of intensively farmed and protected lands along a seasonality gradient from South to North. The Magdalena is a case study basin of the EartH2Observe project.

  6. Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondinini, Carlo; Di Marco, Moreno; Chiozza, Federica; Santulli, Giulia; Baisero, Daniele; Visconti, Piero; Hoffmann, Michael; Schipper, Jan; Stuart, Simon N.; Tognelli, Marcelo F.; Amori, Giovanni; Falcucci, Alessandra; Maiorano, Luigi; Boitani, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals. PMID:21844042

  7. Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

    2016-11-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) . To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) , which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

  8. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D

    2018-01-01

    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    facility. Stationing analysis done with climate forecasting in mind recognizes an unpredictable future, while striving to best prepare for the...to support additional growth. This attribute places a threshold ca- pacity on water supply and treatment, which may be related to treat- ment plant ...et al. 2013). 3.3 Military impacts reduced water Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, snow, and ice storms have significant impacts on

  10. An Assessment of Global Electric-Sector Water Demands to 2100 under the Latest Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Electricity demands are likely to continue growing in the coming decades, due to population and economy growth. The electric growth could lead water demands to increase because some kinds of power generation methods such as thermal power generation require large amount of water. Many countries still rely on thermal power generation. Thus, we are concerned that electricity generation could be a big factor to accelerate water scarcity. In this study, to assess the electric-sector impacts on water demands, we estimated future electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in 17 regions from 2010 to 2100. The water withdrawal and consumption are calculated by using electricity generation and water demand intensities. The data set of future electricity generation is derived by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. This model applied the latest scenarios for global climate change studies, the socio-economic scenario (SSPs) and the radiative forcing scenario (RCPs). We used the water demands intensity data set of Macknick et al. (2012). Water demand intensities for power plants considerably varies by power plant cooling systems. Therefore, we constructed cooling system share scenarios. Our results indicated that by 2100, the water withdrawal and consumption in current developing countries increased and caught up with that in current developed countries. We found that socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) has large impacts on the water withdrawal and consumption. Sustainable society (SSP1) and conventional development society (SSP5) have higher economic growth than fragmentation society (SSP3). The sustainable society needs smaller amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. In contrast, the conventional development society needs larger amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. Therefore, higher economic growth did not always lead less electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption. A shift of

  11. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2014-02-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day-1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the

  12. Global Energy and Water Balances in the Latest Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Kang, Suchul; Park, Hye-Jin

    2016-04-01

    The recently released Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) data are evaluated and compared with three other global reanalyses, namely Interim version of the next European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERRA-Interim), Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), in terms of global energy and water balances. All four reanalyses show an energy imbalance at TOA and surface. Especially, clouds in JRA-55 are optically weaker than those in the three other reanalyses, leading to excessive outgoing longwave radiation, which in turn causes negative net energy flux at TOA. Moreover, JRA-55 has a negative imbalance at surface and at TOA, which is attributed to systematic positive biases in latent heat flux over the ocean. As for the global water balance, all reanalyses present a similar spatial pattern of the difference between evaporation and precipitation (E-P). However, JRA-55 has a relatively strong negative (positive) E-P in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and South Pacific Convergence Zone (extratropical regions) due to overestimated precipitation (evaporation), in spite of the global net being close to zero. In time series analysis, especially in E-P, significant stepwise changes occur in MERRA, CFSR and ERA-Interim due to the changes occur in MERRA, CFRS and ERA-Interim due to the changes in the satellite observing system used in the data assimilation. Both MERRA and CFSR show a strong downward E-P shift in 1998, simultaneously with the start of the assimilation of AMSU-A sounding radiances. ERA-Interim exhibits an upward E-P shift in 1992 due to changes in observations from the SSM/I of new DMSP satellites. On the contrary, JRA-55 exhibits less trends and remains stable over time, which may be caused by newly available, homogenized observations and advances in data assimilation technique. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological

  13. Global Distribution and Prevalence of Arcobacter in Food and Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, T-T D; Lee, J

    2015-12-01

    The emerging foodborne and waterborne pathogen, Arcobacter, has been linked to various gastrointestinal diseases. Currently, 19 species are established or proposed; consequently, there has been an increase in the number of publications regarding Arcobacter since it was first introduced in 1991. To better understand the potential public health risks posed by Arcobacter, this review summarizes the current knowledge concerning the global distribution and the prevalence of Arcobacter in food and water. Arcobacter spp. were identified in food animals, food-processing environments and a variety of foods, including vegetables, poultry, beef, dairy products, seafood, pork, lamb and rabbit. A wide range of waterbodies has been reported to be contaminated with Arcobacter spp., such as wastewater, seawater, lake and river water, drinking water, groundwater and recreational water. In addition, Arcobacter has also been isolated from pets, domestic birds, wildlife, zoo and farm animals. It is expected that advancements in molecular techniques will facilitate better detection worldwide and aid in understanding the pathogenicity of Arcobacter. However, more extensive and rigorous surveillance systems are needed to better understand the occurrence of Arcobacter in food and water in various regions of the world, as well as uncover other potential public health risks, that is antibiotic resistance and disinfection efficiency, to reduce the possibility of foodborne and waterborne infections.

  14. Global Embedding of Fibre Inflation Models

    CERN Document Server

    Cicoli, Michele; Shukla, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with $h^{1,1}= 3$ which are K3 fibrations over a $\\mbb{P}^1$ base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  15. Web Application for Modeling Global Antineutrinos

    CERN Document Server

    Barna, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Electron antineutrinos stream freely from rapidly decaying fission products within nuclear reactors and from long-lived radioactivity within Earth. Those with energy greater than 1.8 MeV are regularly observed by several kiloton-scale underground detectors. These observations estimate the amount of terrestrial radiogenic heating, monitor the operation of nuclear reactors, and measure the fundamental properties of neutrinos. The analysis of antineutrino observations at operating detectors or the planning of projects with new detectors requires information on the expected signal and background rates. We present a web application for modeling global antineutrino energy spectra and detection rates for any surface location. Antineutrino sources include all registered nuclear reactors as well as the crust and mantle of Earth. Visitors to the website may model the location and power of a hypothetical nuclear reactor, copy energy spectra, and analyze the significance of a selected signal relative to background.

  16. Hurricane Footprints in Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Tapiador

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the identification of hurricanes in low-resolution global climate models (GCM. As hurricanes are not fully resolvable at the coarse resolution of the GCMs (typically 2.5 × 2.5 deg, indirect methods such as analyzing the environmental conditions favoring hurricane formation have to be sought. Nonetheless, the dynamical cores of the models have limitations in simulating hurricane formation, which is a far from fully understood process. Here, it is shown that variations in the specific entropy rather than in dynamical variables can be used as a proxy of the hurricane intensity as estimated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE. The main application of this research is to ascertain the changes in the hurricane frequency and intensity in future climates.

  17. A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

    CERN Document Server

    Braha, Dan

    2012-01-01

    Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.

  18. Global costs and benefits of reaching universal coverage of sanitation and drinking-water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Economic evidence on the cost and benefits of sanitation and drinking-water supply supports higher allocation of resources and selection of efficient and affordable interventions. The study aim is to estimate global and regional costs and benefits of sanitation and drinking-water supply interventions to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target in 2015, as well as to attain universal coverage. Input data on costs and benefits from reviewed literature were combined in an economic model to estimate the costs and benefits, and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). Benefits included health and access time savings. Global BCRs (Dollar return per Dollar invested) were 5.5 for sanitation, 2.0 for water supply and 4.3 for combined sanitation and water supply. Globally, the costs of universal access amount to US$ 35 billion per year for sanitation and US$ 17.5 billion for drinking-water, over the 5-year period 2010-2015 (billion defined as 10(9) here and throughout). The regions accounting for the major share of costs and benefits are South Asia, East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Improved sanitation and drinking-water supply deliver significant economic returns to society, especially sanitation. Economic evidence should further feed into advocacy efforts to raise funding from governments, households and the private sector.

  19. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  20. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30–60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9 Tg(O3 from 273 to 299 Tg(O(3. Thus, there is a spread of ±35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  1. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  2. Impact of climatic and other changes on water resources and demand in river basins: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Floerke, M.; Maerker, M.; Vassolo, S.

    2003-04-01

    To obtain a globally consistent picture of the present and future water resources situation, the water use and availability model WaterGAP 2 was applied to derive global scenarios of water use and availability (and thus water stress). In these scenarios, the impact of climate change on water availability and irrigation water requirements are taken into account, while the impact of demographic, technological and socio-economic changes on water use is considered. In a globalized world, such a scenario analysis can also provide useful information for the sustainable management of individual river basins, in particular considering virtual water transports among river basins in the form of irrigated food or electricity. WaterGAP 2 (spatial resolution 0.5 degree) consists of the global hydrological model WGHM and of water use models for the sectors irrigation, livestock, households and industry. WGHM computes monthly values of surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge in river basins. It is tuned against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations to achieve a good simulation of the long-term average river discharge. Validation efforts have shown than WGHM can satisfactorily simulate the 90 percent reliable monthly discharge Q90 of river basins larger than 20,000 km2, which in addition to the long-term average river discharge is a good indicator for water availability. The water use models compute both water withdrawals and consumptive water uses. The potential climate change impact is computed for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios of IPCC, A2 and B2, which were each translated into climate scenarios by two state-of-the-art global climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3. These emission scenarios are based on storylines that describe alternative possible developments of society until 2100. The B2 scenario assumes a more environmentally oriented society than A2 and results in much lower emissions. Consistent with these storylines and the pertaining

  3. Global Quantitative Modeling of Chromatin Factor Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G.

    2014-01-01

    Chromatin is the driver of gene regulation, yet understanding the molecular interactions underlying chromatin factor combinatorial patterns (or the “chromatin codes”) remains a fundamental challenge in chromatin biology. Here we developed a global modeling framework that leverages chromatin profiling data to produce a systems-level view of the macromolecular complex of chromatin. Our model ultilizes maximum entropy modeling with regularization-based structure learning to statistically dissect dependencies between chromatin factors and produce an accurate probability distribution of chromatin code. Our unsupervised quantitative model, trained on genome-wide chromatin profiles of 73 histone marks and chromatin proteins from modENCODE, enabled making various data-driven inferences about chromatin profiles and interactions. We provided a highly accurate predictor of chromatin factor pairwise interactions validated by known experimental evidence, and for the first time enabled higher-order interaction prediction. Our predictions can thus help guide future experimental studies. The model can also serve as an inference engine for predicting unknown chromatin profiles — we demonstrated that with this approach we can leverage data from well-characterized cell types to help understand less-studied cell type or conditions. PMID:24675896

  4. Water stress in global transboundary river basins: significance of upstream water use on downstream stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munia, H.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Mirumachi, N.; Porkka, M.; Wada, Y.; Kummu, M.

    2016-01-01

    Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analysed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world’s transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. We found that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

  5. Water Stress in Global Transboundary River Basins: Significance of Upstream Water Use on Downstream Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munia, H.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Mirumachi, N.; Porkka,M.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, M.

    2016-01-01

    Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analyzed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world's transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. Wefound that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

  6. Ground water/surface water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R.T.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2005-01-01

    Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa ClaraCalleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Nin??o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/??C, compared to 0.9 m/??C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and - when the GCM forecast skills are adequate - for near term predictions.

  7. Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert M. Clark; Zhiwei LI; Steven G. Buchberger

    2011-01-01

    It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore,potentially,impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems.The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure.A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort.The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality,the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change.A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database.An analysis of the water trentment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC,pH,and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTE The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters.Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation.Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions.However,it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by enhancing existing WTP

  8. Troubling Muddy Waters: Problematizing Reflective Practice in Global Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Thirusha; Kumagai, Arno K

    2016-03-01

    The idea of exporting the concept of reflective practice for a global medical education audience is growing. However, the uncritical export and adoption of Western concepts of reflection may be inappropriate in non-Western societies. The emphasis in Western medical education on the use of reflection for a specific end--that is, the improvement of individual clinical practice--tends to ignore the range of reflective practice, concentrating on reflection alone while overlooking critical reflection and reflexivity. This Perspective places the concept of reflective practice under a critical lens to explore a broader view for its application in medical education outside the West. The authors suggest that ideas about reflection in medicine and medical education may not be as easily transferable from Western to non-Western contexts as concepts from biomedical science are. The authors pose the question, When "exporting" Western medical education strategies and principles, how often do Western-trained educators authentically open up to the possibility that there are alternative ways of seeing and knowing that may be valuable in educating Western physicians? One answer lies in the assertion that educators should aspire to turn exportation of educational theory into a truly bidirectional, collaborative exchange in which culturally conscious views of reflective practice contribute to humanistic, equitable patient care. This discussion engages in troubling the already-muddy waters of reflective practice by exploring the global applicability of reflective practice as it is currently applied in medical education. The globalization of medical education demands critical reflection on reflection itself.

  9. Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, S; Coudret, R; Drapeau, L; Jarlan, L

    2012-10-01

    Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincaré section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rössler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor.

  10. Global solutions to the shallow-water system

    CERN Document Server

    Alexeenko, Sergey N; Pelinovsky, Dmitry E

    2016-01-01

    The classical system of shallow-water (Saint--Venant) equations describes long surface waves in an inviscid incompressible fluid of a variable depth. Although shock waves are expected in this quasilinear hyperbolic system for a wide class of initial data, we find a sufficient condition on the initial data that guarantees existence of a global classical solution continued from a local solution. The sufficient conditions can be easily satisfied for the fluid flow propagating in one direction with two characteristic velocities of the same sign and two monotonically increasing Riemann invariants. We prove that these properties persist in the time evolution of the classical solutions to the shallow-water equations and provide no shock wave singularities formed in a finite time over a half-line or an infinite line. On a technical side, we develop a novel method of an additional argument, which allows to obtain local and global solutions to the quasilinear hyperbolic systems in physical rather than characteristic va...

  11. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  12. Advancing global hydro-climatological data archives to support climate change impact assessments on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variations and changing climate will very likely alter the rate and nature of hydrological processes and consequently affect water resources in many regions. Current General Circulation Models and downscaling methods that are increasingly used to assess changes in the water cycle and water resource vulnerabilities introduce a cascade of uncertainties that cannot realistically be dealt with at the moment and are too inaccurate to support improved decision-making for water management and for future water systems design. Therefore, water managers need not only improved hydrological and climate modelling and downscaling methods but also access to adequate hydro-meteorological monitoring networks. The Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H), a joint effort by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and several global observing systems, aims at integrating in-situ and remote sensing hydrological observations with hydrological model results held by its partner institutions to support a wide range of hydrological applications including research of global and regional climate change. Adhering to the different needs of all data users (scientists, policy makes and other stakeholders) and bridging the gap between the distributed datasets, currently a new information system is being developed to enable web-based discovery, access and analysis of observation data and derived products served through GTN-H. This system is built on international standards published by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) using open standardized web services, namely (1) Catalogue Services for data discovery, (2) Web Map Services for data visualization and (3) Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services and Sensor Observation Services for data access. This presentation will give an overview about the GTN-H data archive and the design of the new information system including an outlook of its potential use for water related climate change impact assessments.

  13. Modeling Water Filtration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Melissa

    2014-01-01

    Model-eliciting activities (MEAs) are not new to those in engineering or mathematics, but they were new to Melissa Parks. Model-eliciting activities are simulated real-world problems that integrate engineering, mathematical, and scientific thinking as students find solutions for specific scenarios. During this process, students generate solutions…

  14. Global-scale analysis of river flow alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.; Zhang, J.

    2009-12-01

    Global-scale information on natural river flows and anthropogenic river flow alterations is required to identify areas where aqueous ecosystems are expected to be strongly degraded. Such information can support the identification of environmental flow guidelines and a sustainable water management that balances the water demands of humans and ecosystems. This study presents the first global assessment of the anthropogenic alteration of river flow regimes, in particular of flow variability, by water withdrawals and dams/reservoirs. Six ecologically relevant flow indicators were quantified using an improved version of the global water model WaterGAP. WaterGAP simulated, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree, river discharge as affected by human water withdrawals and dams around the year 2000, as well as naturalized discharge without this type of human interference. Compared to naturalized conditions, long-term average global discharge into oceans and internal sinks has decreased by 2.7% due to water withdrawals, and by 0.8% due to dams. Mainly due to irrigation, long-term average river discharge and statistical low flow Q90 (monthly river discharge that is exceeded in 9 out of 10 months) have decreased by more than 10% on one sixth and one quarter of the global land area (excluding Antarctica and Greenland), respectively. Q90 has increased significantly on only 5% of the land area, downstream of reservoirs. Due to both water withdrawals and reservoirs, seasonal flow amplitude has decreased significantly on one sixth of the land area, while interannual variability has increased on one quarter of the land area mainly due to irrigation. It has decreased on only 8% of the land area, in areas downstream of reservoirs where consumptive water use is low. The impact of reservoirs is likely underestimated by our study as small reservoirs are not taken into account. Areas most affected by anthropogenic river flow alterations are the Western and Central USA, Mexico, the

  15. Global-scale analysis of river flow alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Döll

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Global-scale information on natural river flows and anthropogenic river flow alterations is required to identify areas where aqueous ecosystems are expected to be strongly degraded. Such information can support the identification of environmental flow guidelines and a sustainable water management that balances the water demands of humans and ecosystems. This study presents the first global assessment of the anthropogenic alteration of river flow regimes, in particular of flow variability, by water withdrawals and dams/reservoirs. Six ecologically relevant flow indicators were quantified using an improved version of the global water model WaterGAP. WaterGAP simulated, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree, river discharge as affected by human water withdrawals and dams around the year 2000, as well as naturalized discharge without this type of human interference. Compared to naturalized conditions, long-term average global discharge into oceans and internal sinks has decreased by 2.7% due to water withdrawals, and by 0.8% due to dams. Mainly due to irrigation, long-term average river discharge and statistical low flow Q90 (monthly river discharge that is exceeded in 9 out of 10 months have decreased by more than 10% on one sixth and one quarter of the global land area (excluding Antarctica and Greenland, respectively. Q90 has increased significantly on only 5% of the land area, downstream of reservoirs. Due to both water withdrawals and reservoirs, seasonal flow amplitude has decreased significantly on one sixth of the land area, while interannual variability has increased on one quarter of the land area mainly due to irrigation. It has decreased on only 8% of the land area, in areas downstream of reservoirs where consumptive water use is low. The impact of reservoirs is likely underestimated by our study as small reservoirs are not taken into account. Areas most affected by anthropogenic river flow

  16. Modeled ground water age distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  17. Global Stability of a Discrete Mutualism Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Yang

    2014-01-01

    difference equations, sufficient conditions which ensure the global asymptotical stability of the interior equilibrium of the system are obtained. The conditions which ensure the local stability of the positive equilibrium is enough to ensure the global attractivity are proved.

  18. A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. I. Kelley

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM, and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs. SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2, but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

  19. Violence Against Women: Globalizing the Integrated Ecological Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulu, Emma; Miedema, Stephanie

    2015-12-01

    Globalization theories have proliferated over the past two decades. However, global developments have yet to be systematically incorporated into theories around violence against women. This article proposes to add a global level to the existing ecological model framework, popularized by Lori Heise in 1998, to explore the relationships between global processes and experiences of violence against women. Data from the Maldives and Cambodia are used to assess how globalized ideologies, economic development and integration, religious fundamentalisms, and global cultural exchange, as components of a larger globalization process, have affected men and women's experiences and perceptions of violence against women.

  20. Near Real-Time Monitoring of Global Evapotranspiration and its Application to Water Resource Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halverson, G. H.; Fisher, J.; Jewell, L. A.; Moore, G.; Verma, M.; McDonald, T.; Kim, S.; Muniz, A.

    2016-12-01

    Water scarcity and its impact on agriculture is a pressing world concern. At the heart of this crisis is the balance of water exchange between the land and the atmosphere. The ability to monitor evapotranspiration provides a solution by enabling sustainable irrigation practices. The Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model of evapotranspiration has been implemented to meet this need as a daily MODIS product with 1 to 5 km resolution. An automated data pipeline for this model implementation provides daily data with global coverage and near real-time latency using the Geospatial Data Abstraction Library. An interactive map providing on-demand statistical analysis enables water resource managers to monitor rates of water loss. To demonstrate the application of remotely-sensed evapotranspiration to water resource management, a partnership has been arranged with the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE). The online water research management tool was developed to meet the specifications of NMOSE using the Leaflet, GeoServer, and Django frameworks. NMOSE will utilize this tool to monitor drought and fire risk and manage irrigation. Through this test-case, it is hoped that real-time, user-friendly remote sensing tools will be adopted globally to make resource management decisions informed by the NASA Earth Observation System.

  1. Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Bartram

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally representative and internationally comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation.

  2. Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartram, Jamie; Brocklehurst, Clarissa; Fisher, Michael B.; Luyendijk, Rolf; Hossain, Rifat; Wardlaw, Tessa; Gordon, Bruce

    2014-01-01

    International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally-representative and internationally-comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation. PMID:25116635

  3. Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rost, Stefanie; Gerten, Dieter; Hoff, Holger; Lucht, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam (Germany); Falkenmark, Malin [Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Rockstroem, Johan, E-mail: gerten@pik-potsdam.d [Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Kraeftriket 2B, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-12-15

    This modeling study explores-spatially explicitly, for current and projected future climate, and for different management intensity levels-the potential for increasing global crop production through on-farm water management strategies: (a) reducing soil evaporation ('vapor shift') and (b) collecting runoff on cropland and using it during dry spells ('runoff harvesting'). A moderate scenario, implying both a 25% reduction in evaporation and a 25% collection of runoff, suggests that global crop production can be increased by 19%, which is comparable with the effect of current irrigation (17%). Climate change alone (three climate models, SRES A2r emissions and population, constant land use) will reduce global crop production by 9% by 2050, which could be buffered by a vapor shift level of 50% or a water harvesting level of 25%. Even if realization of the beneficial effects of rising atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration upon plants was ensured (by fertilizer use) in tandem with the above moderate water management scenario, the water available on current cropland will not meet the requirements of a world population of 9-10 billion.

  4. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used throughout the world for planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban areas.

  5. Modelling Ballast Water Transport

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayakumar, S.; Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.

    by toolbox, available in MIKE software, by predicting the water elevation using the four major constituents M2, S2, K1 and O1 at the coastal tidal stations Okha and Godia (International Hydrographic Bureau, Spec. Pub, Monaco). Subsequently the tidal...-gulf is the highest compared to that on the northern and southern coasts. References Panvelkar, J.S., Bendre, V.M. and A.S.Barve (1986). ?Software for harmonic and spectral analysis of tidal data?, Proc. 3rd Indian Conference on ocean engineering, IIT Bombay, Dec...

  6. Impacts of soil–aquifer heat and water fluxes on simulated global climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Y. Krakauer

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50 m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer–soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer–soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil–aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of > 1 K in the Arctic. The soil–aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in land-surface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

  7. Impacts of soil-aquifer heat and water fluxes on simulated global climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Y. Krakauer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50 m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1 K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and land-surface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

  8. Effects of global warming on floods and droughts and related water quality of rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jong, B.

    2006-01-01

    This review focuses on the effect of global warming on droughts, rainstorms and floods and related water quality of rivers. Relations of temperature, rainstorms and river discharges with water quality variables like water temperature, chemical concentrations and microbiological activity are

  9. Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

    2011-04-01

    Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be

  10. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  11. Global assessment of exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water based on a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bain, Robert; Cronk, Ryan; Hossain, Rifat; Bonjour, Sophie; Onda, Kyle; Wright, Jim; Yang, Hong; Slaymaker, Tom; Hunter, Paul; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie

    2014-08-01

    To estimate exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water as indicated by levels of Escherichia coli (E. coli) or thermotolerant coliform (TTC) in water sources. We estimated coverage of different types of drinking water source based on household surveys and censuses using multilevel modelling. Coverage data were combined with water quality studies that assessed E. coli or TTC including those identified by a systematic review (n = 345). Predictive models for the presence and level of contamination of drinking water sources were developed using random effects logistic regression and selected covariates. We assessed sensitivity of estimated exposure to study quality, indicator bacteria and separately considered nationally randomised surveys. We estimate that 1.8 billion people globally use a source of drinking water which suffers from faecal contamination, of these 1.1 billion drink water that is of at least 'moderate' risk (>10 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml). Data from nationally randomised studies suggest that 10% of improved sources may be 'high' risk, containing at least 100 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml. Drinking water is found to be more often contaminated in rural areas (41%, CI: 31%-51%) than in urban areas (12%, CI: 8-18%), and contamination is most prevalent in Africa (53%, CI: 42%-63%) and South-East Asia (35%, CI: 24%-45%). Estimates were not sensitive to the exclusion of low quality studies or restriction to studies reporting E. coli. Microbial contamination is widespread and affects all water source types, including piped supplies. Global burden of disease estimates may have substantially understated the disease burden associated with inadequate water services. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine and International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  13. Improving distributed hydrologic modeling and global land cover data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, Patrick

    Distributed models of the land surface are essential for global climate models because of the importance of land-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, momentum. They are also used for high resolution hydrologic simulation because of the need to capture non-linear responses to spatially variable inputs. Continued improvements to these models, and the data which they use, is especially important given ongoing changes in climate and land cover. In hydrologic models, important aspects are sometimes neglected due to the need to simplify the models for operational simulation. For example, operational flash flood models do not consider the role of snow and are often lumped (i.e. do not discretize a watershed into multiple units, and so do not fully consider the effect of intense, localized rainstorms). To address this deficiency, an overland flow model is coupled with a subsurface flow model to create a distributed flash flood forecasting system that can simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. The model is intended for operational use, and there are extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorologic data, to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. A second study, which is designed to improve snow simulation in forested environments, demonstrates the importance of explicitly representing a near canopy environment in snow models, instead of only representing open and canopy covered areas (i.e. with % canopy fraction), as is often done. Our modeling, which uses canopy structure information from Aerial Laser Survey Mapping at 1 meter resolution, suggests that areas near trees have more net snow water input than surrounding areas because of the lack of snow interception, shading by the trees, and the effects of wind. In addition, the greatest discrepancy between our model simulations that explicitly represent forest structure and those that do not occur in areas with more canopy edges. In addition, two value

  14. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  15. Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinsted, A; Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S

    2007-12-11

    It has previously been noted that there are drops in global sea level (GSL) after some major volcanic eruptions. However, observational evidence has not been convincing because there is substantial variability in the global sea level record over periods similar to those at which we expect volcanoes to have an impact. To quantify the impact of volcanic eruptions we average monthly GSL data from 830 tide gauge records around five major volcanic eruptions. Surprisingly, we find that the initial response to a volcanic eruption is a significant rise in sea level of 9 +/- 3 mm in the first year after the eruption. This rise is followed by a drop of 7 +/- 3 mm in the period 2-3 years after the eruption relative to preeruption sea level. These results are statistically robust and no particular volcanic eruption or ocean region dominates the signature we find. Neither the drop nor especially the rise in GSL can be explained by models of lower oceanic heat content. We suggest that the mechanism is a transient disturbance of the water cycle with a delayed response of land river runoff relative to ocean evaporation and global precipitation that affects global sea level. The volcanic impact on the water cycle and sea levels is comparable in magnitude to that of a large El Niño-La Niña cycle, amounting to approximately 5% of global land precipitation.

  16. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  17. A global and high-resolution assessment of the green, blue and grey water footprint of wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Mekonnen

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to estimate the green, blue and grey water footprint of wheat in a spatially-explicit way, both from a production and consumption perspective. The assessment is global and improves upon earlier research by taking a high-resolution approach, estimating the water footprint of the crop at a 5 by 5 arc minute grid. We have used a grid-based dynamic water balance model to calculate crop water use over time, with a time step of one day. The model takes into account the daily soil water balance and climatic conditions for each grid cell. In addition, the water pollution associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer in wheat production is estimated for each grid cell. We have used the water footprint and virtual water flow assessment framework as in the guideline of the Water Footprint Network.

    The global wheat production in the period 1996–2005 required about 1088 billion cubic meters of water per year. The major portion of this water (70% comes from green water, about 19% comes from blue water, and the remaining 11% is grey water. The global average water footprint of wheat per ton of crop was 1830 m3/ton. About 18% of the water footprint related to the production of wheat is meant not for domestic consumption but for export. About 55% of the virtual water export comes from the USA, Canada and Australia alone. For the period 1996–2005, the global average water saving from international trade in wheat products was 65 Gm3/yr.

    A relatively large total blue water footprint as a result of wheat production is observed in the Ganges and Indus river basins, which are known for their water stress problems. The two basins alone account for about 47% of the blue water footprint related to global wheat production. About 93% of the water footprint of wheat consumption in Japan lies in other countries, particularly the USA, Australia and Canada. In Italy, with an average wheat consumption of 150

  18. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  19. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production: a global analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kummu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products. We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency. We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years. Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management. For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.

  20. Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.

    2013-06-01

    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs) to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency). We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year) while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years). Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management). For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.

  1. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  2. A 1985-2015 data-driven global reconstruction of GRACE total water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    After thirteen years of measurements, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has enabled for an unprecedented view on total water storage (TWS) variability. However, the relatively short record length, irregular time steps and multiple data gaps since 2011 still represent important limitations to a wider use of this dataset within the hydrological and climatological community especially for applications such as model evaluation or assimilation of GRACE in land surface models. To address this issue, we make use of the available GRACE record (2002-2015) to infer local statistical relationships between detrended monthly TWS anomalies and the main controlling atmospheric drivers (e.g. daily precipitation and temperature) at 1 degree resolution (Humphrey et al., in revision). Long-term and homogeneous monthly time series of detrended anomalies in total water storage are then reconstructed for the period 1985-2015. The quality of this reconstruction is evaluated in two different ways. First we perform a cross-validation experiment to assess the performance and robustness of the statistical model. Second we compare with independent basin-scale estimates of TWS anomalies derived by means of combined atmospheric and terrestrial water-balance using atmospheric water vapor flux convergence and change in atmospheric water vapor content (Mueller et al. 2011). The reconstructed time series are shown to provide robust data-driven estimates of global variations in water storage over large regions of the world. Example applications are provided for illustration, including an analysis of some selected major drought events which occurred before the GRACE era. References Humphrey V, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI (in revision) Assessing global water storage variability from GRACE: trends, seasonal cycle, sub-seasonal anomalies and extremes. Surv Geophys Mueller B, Hirschi M, Seneviratne SI (2011) New diagnostic estimates of variations in terrestrial water storage

  3. Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

    2016-12-01

    A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C‑1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle amplification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C‑1 over 1950–2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle amplification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C‑1) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

  4. Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

  5. River water quality modelling: II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shanahan, P.; Henze, Mogens; Koncsos, L.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. EPA QUAL2E model is currently the standard for river water quality modelling. While QUAL2E is adequate for the regulatory situation for which it was developed (the U.S. wasteload allocation process), there is a need for a more comprehensive framework for research and teaching. Moreover......, and to achieve robust model calibration. Mass balance problems arise from failure to account for mass in the sediment as well as in the water column and due to the fundamental imprecision of BOD as a state variable. (C) 1998 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  6. Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Y. Sun

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial water storage (TWS exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationships exist between precipitation and TWS, the latter also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and hydrologic cycle, but also provide new model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. In this work, the connectivity of TWS is quantified using the climate network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS datasets, a remote-sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite mission, and a model-generated dataset from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH. Both datasets have 1 ° × 1 ° resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a statistical cutoff threshold to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show TWS hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two datasets indicate that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide important insights for constraining land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.