An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2008-07-01

Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km³ and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

Science.gov (United States)

De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

2015-12-01

A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul C.D.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena; Dunne, Krista A.; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gleeson, Tom; Liang, Zhi; Phillips, Peter; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Swenson, Sean

2014-01-01

LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

2014-01-01

Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

Evaluation of water stress and groundwater storage using a global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiojiri, D.; Tanaka, K.; Tanaka, S.

2017-12-01

United Nations reported the number of people will reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and this rapid growth of population will increase water use. To prevent global water shortage, it is important to identify the problematic areas in order to maintain water resources sustainability. Moreover, groundwater availability is decreasing in some areas due to excessive groundwater extraction compared to the groundwater recharge capacity. The development of a hydrological model that can simulate the current status of the world's water resources represents an important tool to achieve sustainable water resources management. In this study, a global hydrological simulation is conducted at a 20km spatial resolution using the land surface model SiBUC, which is coupled to the river routing model HydroBEAM. In the river routing model, we evaluate water stress by comparing the excess of water demand with the river water demand. Areas with high water stress are seen in United States, India, and east part of China; however, for the case of Africa the overall water stress is zero. This could be because rain-fed agriculture is the norm in Africa and thus irrigation water demand is low, which affects water stress index. Sustainability of groundwater resources is also evaluated in the river routing model by setting a virtual groundwater tank. When the amount of groundwater withdrawal constantly exceeds groundwater recharge, the volume in the tank falls below zero and the area is regarded as unsustainable in terms of groundwater usage. Such areas are mostly seen in central United States, northeast China, the region between northwest India and Pakistan. In the simulation with SiBUC, the amount of groundwater recharge is assumed as the proportion of water that flows from the second to the third soil layer. This proportion will be estimated by comparing monthly variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from the observations of the GRACE satellite with the simulated TWS variations. From

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2014-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

2016-01-01

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2013-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been

Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

2013-04-01

Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

2017-01-01

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liepert, Beate G; Previdi, Michael

2012-01-01

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of −0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only −0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a ‘leaking’ of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a ‘flooding’ is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence ‘ghost’ sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of −1 to +6 W m −2 (median +0.1 W m −2 ). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges

Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, David, D.; Ferrare, Richard, A.

2011-07-06

The 'Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds' project focused extensively on the analysis and utilization of water vapor and aerosol profiles derived from the ARM Raman lidar at the Southern Great Plains ARM site. A wide range of different tasks were performed during this project, all of which improved quality of the data products derived from the lidar or advanced the understanding of atmospheric processes over the site. These activities included: upgrading the Raman lidar to improve its sensitivity; participating in field experiments to validate the lidar aerosol and water vapor retrievals; using the lidar aerosol profiles to evaluate the accuracy of the vertical distribution of aerosols in global aerosol model simulations; examining the correlation between relative humidity and aerosol extinction, and how these change, due to horizontal distance away from cumulus clouds; inferring boundary layer turbulence structure in convective boundary layers from the high-time-resolution lidar water vapor measurements; retrieving cumulus entrainment rates in boundary layer cumulus clouds; and participating in a field experiment that provided data to help validate both the entrainment rate retrievals and the turbulent profiles derived from lidar observations.

Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

2015-12-01

Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

Global scale groundwater flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Human and climate impacts on global water resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

2013-01-01

Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.;

Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

Science.gov (United States)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

2017-04-01

In many countries, data is scarce, incomplete and often not easily shared. In these cases, global satellite and reanalysis data provide an alternative to assess water resources. To assess water resources in Azerbaijan, a completely distributed and physically based hydrological wflow-sbm model was set-up for the entire Kura basin. We used SRTM elevation data, a locally available river map and one from OpenStreetMap to derive the drainage direction network at the model resolution of approximately 1x1 km. OpenStreetMap data was also used to derive the fraction of paved area per cell to account for the reduced infiltration capacity (c.f. Schellekens et al. 2014). We used the results of a global study to derive root zone capacity based on climate data (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016). To account for the variation in vegetation cover over the year, monthly averages of Leaf Area Index, based on MODIS data, were used. For the soil-related parameters, we used global estimates as provided by Dai et al. (2013). This enabled the rapid derivation of a first estimate of parameter values for our hydrological model. Digitized local meteorological observations were scarce and available only for limited time period. Therefore several sources of global meteorological data were evaluated: (1) EU-WATCH global precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1958-2001 (Harding et al., 2011), (2) WFDEI precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1979-2014 (by Weedon et al., 2014), (3) MSWEP precipitation (Beck et al., 2016) and (4) local precipitation data from more than 200 stations in the Kura basin were available from the NOAA website for a period up to 1991. The latter, together with data archives from Azerbaijan, were used as a benchmark to evaluate the global precipitation datasets for the overlapping period 1958-1991. By comparing the datasets, we found that monthly mean precipitation of EU-WATCH and WFDEI coincided well

Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, P. H.

2004-01-01

This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. Key elements of the global water cycle are discussed in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers, and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. Approaches to measuring or otherwise evaluating the global water cycle are presented, and the limitations on known accuracy for many components of the water cycle are discussed, as are the characteristic spatial and temporal scales of the different water cycle components. Using these observational requirements for a global water cycle observing system, an approach to measuring the global water cycle from space is developed. The capabilities of various active and passive microwave instruments are discussed, as is the potential of supporting measurements from other sources. Examples of space observational systems, including TRMM/GPM precipitation measurement, cloud radars, soil moisture, sea surface salinity, temperature and humidity profiling, other measurement approaches and assimilation of the microwave and other data into interpretative computer models are discussed to develop the observational possibilities. The selection of orbits is then addressed, for orbit selection and antenna size/beamwidth considerations determine the sampling characteristics for satellite measurement systems. These considerations dictate a particular set of measurement possibilities, which are then matched to the observational sampling requirements based on the science. The results define a network of satellite instrumentation systems, many in low Earth orbit, a few in geostationary orbit, and all tied together through a sampling network that feeds the observations into a data-assimilative computer model.

Estimating surface water concentrations of “down-the-drain” chemicals in China using a global model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whelan, M.J.; Hodges, J.E.N.; Williams, R.J.; Keller, V.D.J.; Price, O.R.; Li, M.

2012-01-01

Predictions of surface water exposure to “down-the-drain” chemicals are presented which employ grid-based spatially-referenced data on average monthly runoff, population density, country-specific per capita domestic water and substance use rates and sewage treatment provision. Water and chemical load are routed through the landscape using flow directions derived from digital elevation data, accounting for in-stream chemical losses using simple first order kinetics. Although the spatial and temporal resolution of the model are relatively coarse, the model still has advantages over spatially inexplicit “unit-world” approaches, which apply arbitrary dilution factors, in terms of predicting the location of exposure hotspots and the statistical distribution of concentrations. The latter can be employed in probabilistic risk assessments. Here the model was applied to predict surface water exposure to “down-the-drain” chemicals in China for different levels of sewage treatment provision. Predicted spatial patterns of concentration were consistent with observed water quality classes for China. - Highlights: ► A global-scale model of “down-the-drain” chemical concentrations is presented. ► The model was used to predict spatial patterns of exposure in China. ► Predictions were consistent with observed water quality classes. ► The model can identify hotspots and statistical distributions of concentrations. - A global-scale model was used to predict spatial patterns of “down-the-drain” chemical concentrations in China. Predictions were consistent with observed water quality classes, demonstrating the potential value of the model.

Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2005-01-01

The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

Sinking of Dense North Atlantic Waters in a Global Ocean Model : Location and Controls

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Katsman, C.A.; Drijfhout, SS; Dijkstra, H. A.; Spall, M. A.

2018-01-01

We investigate the characteristics of the sinking of dense waters in the North Atlantic Ocean that constitute the downwelling limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as simulated by two global ocean models: an eddy-permitting model at 1/4° resolution and its coarser 1°

Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

Science.gov (United States)

Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

2000-09-01

While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

2014-01-01

Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2012-04-17

Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-12-01

As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

A Data Analysis Toolbox for Modeling the Global Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Science.gov (United States)

AghaKouchak, A.; Sadegh, M.; Mallakpour, I.

2017-12-01

Water, Food and energy systems are highly interconnected. More than seventy percent of global water resource is used for food production. Water withdrawal, purification, and transfer systems are energy intensive. Furthermore, energy generation strongly depends on water availability. Therefore, considering the interactions in the nexus of water, food and energy is crucial for sustainable management of available resources. In this presentation, we introduce a user-friendly data analysis toolbox that mines the available global data on food, energy and water, and analyzes their interactions. This toolbox provides estimates of water footprint for a wide range of food types in different countries and also approximates the required energy and water resources. The toolbox also provides estimates of the corresponding emissions and biofuel production of different crops. In summary, this toolbox allows evaluating dependencies of the food, energy, and water systems at the country scale. We present global analysis of the interactions between water, food and energy from different perspectives including efficiency and diversity of resources use.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-12-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-08-01

During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress) due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced. In those countries, it can be seen

Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

2000-07-14

The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

Evaluation of globally available precipitation data products as input for water balance models

Science.gov (United States)

Lebrenz, H.; Bárdossy, A.

2009-04-01

Subject of this study is the evaluation of globally available precipitation data products, which are intended to be used as input variables for water balance models in ungauged basins. The selected data sources are a) the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), b) the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and c) the Climate Research Unit (CRU), resulting into twelve globally available data products. The data products imply different data bases, different derivation routines and varying resolutions in time and space. For validation purposes, the ground data from South Africa were screened on homogeneity and consistency by various tests and an outlier detection using multi-linear regression was performed. External Drift Kriging was subsequently applied on the ground data and the resulting precipitation arrays were compared to the different products with respect to quantity and variance.

Are water markets globally applicable?

Science.gov (United States)

Endo, Takahiro; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-03-01

Water scarcity is a global concern that necessitates a global perspective, but it is also the product of multiple regional issues that require regional solutions. Water markets constitute a regionally applicable non-structural measure to counter water scarcity that has received the attention of academics and policy-makers, but there is no global view on their applicability. We present the global distribution of potential nations and states where water markets could be instituted in a legal sense, by investigating 296 water laws internationally, with special reference to a minimum set of key rules: legalization of water reallocation, the separation of water rights and landownership, and the modification of the cancellation rule for non-use. We also suggest two additional globally distributed prerequisites and policy implications: the predictability of the available water before irrigation periods and public control of groundwater pumping throughout its jurisdiction.

eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2014-05-01

In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

Syndromes of the global water crisis - exploring the emergent dynamics through socio-hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Kuil, Linda; Levy, Morgan; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Penny, Gopal; Scott, Christopher; Srinivasan, Veena; Thompson, Sally; Troy, Tara

2014-05-01

There is a great variety of human water systems at the global scale due to the types and timing of water supply/availability, and the high diversity in water use, management, and abstraction methods. Importantly, this is largely driven by differences in welfare, social values, institutional frameworks, and cultural traditions of communities. The observed trend of a growing world population in combination with changing habits that generally increase our water consumption per capita implies that an increasing number of communities will face water scarcity. Over the years much research has been done in order to increase our understanding of human water systems and their associated water problems, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Despite these efforts, the challenge has remained to generalize findings beyond the areas of interests and to establish a common framework in order to compare and learn from different cases as a basis for finding solutions. In a recent analysis of multiple interdisciplinary subnational water resources case studies, it was shown that a suite of distinct resources utilization patterns leading to a water crisis can be identified, namely: 1) groundwater depletion, 2) ecological destruction, 3) drought-driven conflicts, 4) unmet subsistence needs, 5) resource capture by elite and 6) water reallocation to nature (Srinivasan et al., 2012). The effects of these syndromes on long-lasting human wellbeing can be grouped in the following outcomes: unsustainability, vulnerability, chronic scarcity and adaptation. The aim of this group collaboration is to build on this work through the development of a socio-hydrological model that is capable of reproducing the above syndromes and outcomes, ultimately giving insight in the different pathways leading to the syndromes. The resulting model will be distinct compared to existing model frameworks for two reasons. First of all, feedback loops between the hydrological, the environmental and the human

Dependence of stratocumulus-topped boundary-layer entrainment on cloud-water sedimentation: Impact on global aerosol indirect effect in GISS ModelE3 single column model and global simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ackerman, A. S.; Kelley, M.; Cheng, Y.; Fridlind, A. M.; Del Genio, A. D.; Bauer, S.

2017-12-01

Reduction in cloud-water sedimentation induced by increasing droplet concentrations has been shown in large-eddy simulations (LES) and direct numerical simulation (DNS) to enhance boundary-layer entrainment, thereby reducing cloud liquid water path and offsetting the Twomey effect when the overlying air is sufficiently dry, which is typical. Among recent upgrades to ModelE3, the latest version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), are a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics treatment with prognostic precipitation and a moist turbulence scheme that includes an option in its entrainment closure of a simple parameterization for the effect of cloud-water sedimentation. Single column model (SCM) simulations are compared to LES results for a stratocumulus case study and show that invoking the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization option indeed reduces the dependence of cloud liquid water path on increasing aerosol concentrations. Impacts of variations of the SCM configuration and the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization will be explored. Its impact on global aerosol indirect forcing in the framework of idealized atmospheric GCM simulations will also be assessed.

Numerical modeling and remote sensing of global water management systems: Applications for land surface modeling, satellite missions, and sustainable water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Solander, Kurt C.

The ability to accurately quantify water storages and fluxes in water management systems through observations or models is of increasing importance due to the expected impacts from climate change and population growth worldwide. Here, I describe three innovative techniques developed to better understand this problem. First, a model was created to represent reservoir storage and outflow with the objective of integration into a Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate the impacts of reservoir management on the climate system. Given this goal, storage capacity represented the lone model input required that is not already available to an LSM user. Model parameterization was linked to air temperature to allow future simulations to adapt to a changing climate, making it the first such model to mimic the potential response of a reservoir operator to climate change. Second, spatial and temporal error properties of future NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite reservoir operations were quantified. This work invoked the use of the SWOTsim instrument simulator, which was run over a number of synthetic and actual reservoirs so the resulting error properties could be extrapolated to the global scale. The results provide eventual users of SWOT data with a blueprint of expected reservoir error properties so such characteristics can be determined a priori for a reservoir given knowledge about its topology and anticipated repeat orbit pass over its location. Finally, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission was used in conjunction with in-situ water use records to evaluate sustainable water use at the two-digit HUC basin scale over the contiguous United States. Results indicate that the least sustainable water management region is centered in the southwest, where consumptive water use exceeded water availability by over 100% on average for some of these basins. This work represents the first attempt at evaluating sustainable

Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Müller Schmied

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

Science.gov (United States)

Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

2005-01-01

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas M. Kiulia

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-25

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

2012-02-07

Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

Energy-Water-Land Nexus: The relative contributions of climate and human systems on global water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Chen, M.; Turner, S. W. D.; Graham, N. T.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Kim, S. H.; Link, R. P.

2017-12-01

There is a growing consensus that energy, water, and land systems are interconnected and should be analyzed as such. New tools are required to represent the interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamically evolving system. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. The model accounts for a variety of human activities, including changing demands for water for agriculture, power generation, industry, and public supply. We find that these activities exert a larger influence on water scarcity than climate in 93% of river basins globally. This work highlights the importance of accounting for human activities in hydrologic modeling applications and how they may change under different pathways of how land use and agricultural systems, energy systems, and economies may evolve in the future.

Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gnanadesikan

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1 shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

2012-03-01

Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

2015-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

A model for global cycling of tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

1988-01-01

Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

A model for global cycling of tritium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

1988-01-01

Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhoff, D.

2015-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

Science.gov (United States)

van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Evaluation of global water quality - the potential of a data- and model-driven analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bärlund, Ilona; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph; Völker, Jeanette; Malsy, Marcus; Kaus, Andrew; Reder, Klara; Büttner, Olaf; Katterfeld, Christiane; Dietrich, Désirée; Borchardt, Dietrich

2016-04-01

The ongoing socio-economic development presents a new challenge for water quality worldwide, especially in developing and emerging countries. It is estimated that due to population growth and the extension of water supply networks, the amount of waste water will rise sharply. This can lead to an increased risk of surface water quality degradation, if the wastewater is not sufficiently treated. This development has impacts on ecosystems and human health, as well as food security. The United Nations Member States have adopted targets for sustainable development. They include, inter alia, sustainable protection of water quality and sustainable use of water resources. To achieve these goals, appropriate monitoring strategies and the development of indicators for water quality are required. Within the pre-study for a 'World Water Quality Assessment' (WWQA) led by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), a methodology for assessing water quality, taking into account the above-mentioned objectives has been developed. The novelty of this methodology is the linked model- and data-driven approach. The focus is on parameters reflecting the key water quality issues, such as increased waste water pollution, salinization or eutrophication. The results from the pre-study show, for example, that already about one seventh of all watercourses in Latin America, Africa and Asia show high organic pollution. This is of central importance for inland fisheries and associated food security. In addition, it could be demonstrated that global water quality databases have large gaps. These must be closed in the future in order to obtain an overall picture of global water quality and to target measures more efficiently. The aim of this presentation is to introduce the methodology developed within the WWQA pre-study and to show selected examples of application in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kummu, Matti; Varis, Olli; Ward, Philip J; De Moel, Hans

2010-01-01

In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961-90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000-1700 m 3 /capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2% of the world population was under chronic water shortage ( 3 /capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.

A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; van Dijk, Albert; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Minvielle, Marie; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Decharme, Bertrand; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Peßenteiner, Stefanie; van Beek, Rens; Polcher, Jan; Beck, Hylke; Orth, René; Calton, Ben; Burke, Sophia; Dorigo, Wouter; Weedon, Graham P.

2017-07-01

The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979-2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr-1 (334 kg m-2 yr-1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m-2 yr-1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schellekens

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979–2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution. The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i snow-dominated regions and (ii tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr−1 (334 kg m−2 yr−1, while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m−2 yr−1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu, and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng Zhenzhong; Piao Shilong; Yin Guodong; Peng Shushi; Lin Xin; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B

2012-01-01

We applied a land water mass balance equation over 59 major river basins during 2003–9 to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), using as input terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from the GRACE satellites, precipitation and in situ runoff measurements. We found that the terrestrial water storage change cannot be neglected in the estimation of ET on an annual time step, especially in areas with relatively low ET values. We developed a spatial regression model of ET by integrating precipitation, temperature and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and used this model to extrapolate the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in ET from 1982 to 2009. We found that the globally averaged land ET is about 604 mm yr −1 with a range of 558–650 mm yr −1 . From 1982 to 2009, global land ET was found to increase at a rate of 1.10 mm yr −2 , with the Amazon regions and Southeast Asia showing the highest ET increasing trend. Further analyses, however, show that the increase in global land ET mainly occurred between the 1980s and the 1990s. The trend over the 2000s, its magnitude or even the sign of change substantially depended on the choice of the beginning year. This suggests a non-significant trend in global land ET over the last decade. (letter)

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

An updated view of global water cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Houser, P. R.; Schlosser, A.; Lehr, J.

2009-04-01

Unprecedented new observation capacities combined with revolutions in modeling, we are poised to make huge advances in water cycle assessment, understanding, and prediction. To realize this goal, we must develop a discipline of prediction and verification through the integration of water and energy cycle observations and models, and to verify model predictions against observed phenomena to ensure that research delivers reliable improvements in prediction skill. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability, through integration of all necessary observations and research tools. A brief history of the lineage of the conventional water balance and a summary accounting of all major parameters of the water balance using highly respected secondary sources will be presented. Principally, recently published peer reviewed papers reporting results of original work involving direct measurements and new data generated by high-tech devices (e.g. satellite / airborne instruments, supercomputers, geophysical tools) will be employed. This work lends credence to the conventional water balance ideas, but also reveals anachronistic scientific concepts/models, questionable underlying data, longstanding oversights and outright errors in the water balance.

The Global Politics of Water Grabbing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Franco, J.; Mehta, L.; Veldwisch, G.J.A.

2013-01-01

The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land management

The global politics of water grabbing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Franco, Jennifer; Mehta, Lyla; Veldwisch, Gert Jan

2016-01-01

The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

Global Water Availability and Requirements for Future Food Production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Hoff, H.; Biemans, H.; Fader, M.; Waha, K.

2011-01-01

This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was

National water resource management as a global problem: The example of Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Abdelkader, A. A.; Tuninetti, M.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.; Fahmy, H.

2017-12-01

The engineering redistribution of water remains limited in its spatial scope, when compared with the socioeconomic redistribution of water in its virtual form. Virtual water (VW) embedded in products has its own human-induced cycle by moving across the globe. There is a significant body of literature on global VW trade networks (VWTN), with most studies focused on the network structure and the variables controlling its behavior. It was shown that the importing nations will play an important role in the evolution of the network dynamics. The increased connectivity of the global network highlights the risk of systemic disruptions and the vulnerability of the global food, especially when exporting countries change to non-exporting ones. The existing models of VWTN characterize the properties of the network, along with its nodes and links. Acknowledging its contribution to understand the global redistribution of virtual water, hardly can this approach attract potential users to adopt it. The VW trade (VWT) modeling needs to be repositioned to allow resource managers and policy makers at various scales to benefit from it and link global VW dynamics to their local decisions. The aim of this research is to introduce a new modeling approach for the VWT where detailed national scale water management is nested within the coarser global VWTN. The case study of Egypt, the world biggest importer of wheat, is considered here because its population growth and limitations of water and arable land position it as a significant node in the global network. A set of potential scenarios of Egypt's future, driven by population growth, development plans, consumption patterns, technology change, and water availability are developed. The annual national food and water balance in every scenario is calculated to estimate the potential for VW export and import of Egypt. The results indicate that Egypt's demand for food might cause unexpectedly higher demands on other countries' water resources

A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

Aerosol effects on cloud water amounts were successfully simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Yousuke; Goto, Daisuke; Michibata, Takuro; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Takemura, Toshihiko; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2018-03-07

Aerosols affect climate by modifying cloud properties through their role as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, called aerosol-cloud interactions. In most global climate models (GCMs), the aerosol-cloud interactions are represented by empirical parameterisations, in which the mass of cloud liquid water (LWP) is assumed to increase monotonically with increasing aerosol loading. Recent satellite observations, however, have yielded contradictory results: LWP can decrease with increasing aerosol loading. This difference implies that GCMs overestimate the aerosol effect, but the reasons for the difference are not obvious. Here, we reproduce satellite-observed LWP responses using a global simulation with explicit representations of cloud microphysics, instead of the parameterisations. Our analyses reveal that the decrease in LWP originates from the response of evaporation and condensation processes to aerosol perturbations, which are not represented in GCMs. The explicit representation of cloud microphysics in global scale modelling reduces the uncertainty of climate prediction.

Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

2017-12-01

Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

Advances in Global Water Cycle Science Made Possible by Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Within this decade the internationally sponsored Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams from very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and on to blends of the former datastreams with other less-high caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of NASA's role in global water cycle science and its own Global Water & Energy Cycle (GWEC) program, GPM is the centerpiece mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a space-based measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in global temperature. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination, This paper presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Mission and how its datasets can be used in a set of quantitative tests within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine comprehensively whether substantive rate changes do accompany perturbations in global temperatures and how such rate changes manifest themselves in both water storage and water flux transport processes.

Modelling global nitrogen export to ground and surface water from natural ecosystems: impact of N deposition, climate, and CO2 concentration

Science.gov (United States)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; Smith, Ben; Wassen, Martin

2015-04-01

For large regions in the world strong increases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted as a result of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and food production. This will cause many previously N limited ecosystems to become N saturated, leading to increased export to ground and surface water and negative impacts on the environment and human health. However, precise N export fluxes are difficult to predict. Due to its strong link to carbon, N in vegetation and soil is also determined by productivity, as affected by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, and denitrification. Furthermore, the N concentration of water delivered to streams depends strongly on local hydrological conditions. We aim to study how N delivery to ground and surface water is affected by changes in environmental factors. To this end we are developing a global dynamic modelling system that integrates representations of N cycling in vegetation and soil, and N delivery to ground and surface water. This will be achieved by coupling the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, which includes representations of N cycling, as well as croplands and pasture, to the global water balance model PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface runoff, interflow, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. This coupling will allow us to trace N across different systems and estimate the input of N into the riverine system which can be used as input for river biogeochemical models. We will present large scale estimates of N leaching and transport to ground and surface water for natural ecosystems in different biomes, based on a loose coupling of the two models. Furthermore, by means of a factorial model experiment we will explore how these fluxes are influenced by N deposition, temperature, and CO2 concentration.

The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

2015-04-01

Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

Saving water through global trade

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chapagain, Ashok; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Savenije, H.H.G.

2005-01-01

Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water

Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

2014-12-01

The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

Global Hail Model

Science.gov (United States)

Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

2012-04-01

Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-10-01

Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

Global climate change and California's water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaux, H.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

Global water governance. Conceptual design of global institutional arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkerk, M.P.; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

2008-01-01

This study builds upon the explorative study of Hoekstra (2006), who puts forward an argument for coordination at the global level in ‘water governance’. Water governance is understood here in the broad sense as ‘the way people use and maintain water resources’. One of the factors that give water

Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2015-04-01

Central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org) is the development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model. This model is able to produce 14 day ensemble forecasts based on a hydrological model and operational weather data (presently NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System). Special attention is paid to prediction of situations in which water related issues are relevant, such as floods, droughts, navigation, hydropower generation, and irrigation stress. Near-real time satellite data will be assimilated in the hydrological simulations, which is a feature that will be presented for the first time at EGU 2015. First, we address challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. An important feature in this is the use of existing standards and open-source software to the maximum extent possible. For example, we use the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) approach to coupling models (Basic Model Interface (BMI)). The hydrological model underlying the project is PCR-GLOBWB, built by Utrecht University. This is the motor behind the predictions and state estimations. Parts of PCR-GLOBWB have been re-engineered to facilitate running it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, run parallel on multiple nodes, as well as to use BMI. Hydrological models are not very CPU intensive compared to, say, atmospheric models. They are, however, memory hungry due to the localized processes and associated effective parameters. To accommodate this memory need, especially in an ensemble setting, a variation on the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter was developed that needs much less on-chip memory. Due to the operational nature, the coupling of the hydrological model with hydraulic models is very important. The idea is not to run detailed hydraulic routing schemes over the complete globe but to have on-demand simulation prepared off-line with respect to topography and

Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-12-01

The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B.; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Grogan, Danielle S.; Frolking, Steve

2017-10-01

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a global partial equilibrium grid-resolving model SIMPLE-G, and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the consequences of reducing unsustainable irrigation for food security, land use change, and terrestrial carbon. A variety of future (2050) scenarios are considered that interact irrigation productivity with two policy interventions— inter-basin water transfers and international commodity market integration. We find that pursuing sustainable irrigation may erode other development and environmental goals due to higher food prices and cropland expansion. This results in over 800 000 more undernourished people and 0.87 GtC additional emissions. Faster total factor productivity growth in irrigated sectors will encourage more aggressive irrigation water use in the basins where irrigation vulnerability is expected to be reduced by inter-basin water transfer. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future irrigation vulnerability, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge.

Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

Science.gov (United States)

An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

A comprehensive set of benchmark tests for a land surface model of simultaneous fluxes of water and carbon at both the global and seasonal scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Blyth

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the models we use in prediction is important as it allows us to identify uncertainties in prediction as well as guiding the priorities for model development. This paper describes a set of benchmark tests that is designed to quantify the performance of the land surface model that is used in the UK Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The tests are designed to assess the ability of the model to reproduce the observed fluxes of water and carbon at the global and regional spatial scale, and on a seasonal basis. Five datasets are used to test the model: water and carbon dioxide fluxes from ten FLUXNET sites covering the major global biomes, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at four representative stations from the global network, river flow from seven catchments, the seasonal mean NDVI over the seven catchments and the potential land cover of the globe (after the estimated anthropogenic changes have been removed. The model is run in various configurations and results are compared with the data.

A few examples are chosen to demonstrate the importance of using combined use of observations of carbon and water fluxes in essential in order to understand the causes of model errors. The benchmarking approach is suitable for application to other global models.

A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-01-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979-2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8�

Perspectives : How global food traders manage our water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Warner, J.F.; Keulertz, M.; Sojamo, S.

2015-01-01

To many analysts, global water governance is about getting the institutions right: more accountable water users and more public participation in decisions. But are we barking up the right tree? In this analysis, we argue that when analysing global water governance, one needs to look at the global

Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaramillo, Fernando; Destouni, Georgia

2015-12-04

Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 ± 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Semantic Data Integration and Ontology Use within the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Global Water Cycle Data Integration System

Science.gov (United States)

Pozzi, W.; Fekete, B.; Piasecki, M.; McGuinness, D.; Fox, P.; Lawford, R.; Vorosmarty, C.; Houser, P.; Imam, B.

2008-12-01

The inadequacies of water cycle observations for monitoring long-term changes in the global water system, as well as their feedback into the climate system, poses a major constraint on sustainable development of water resources and improvement of water management practices. Hence, The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has established Task WA-08-01, "Integration of in situ and satellite data for water cycle monitoring," an integrative initiative combining different types of satellite and in situ observations related to key variables of the water cycle with model outputs for improved accuracy and global coverage. This presentation proposes development of the Rapid, Integrated Monitoring System for the Water Cycle (Global-RIMS)--already employed by the GEO Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H)--as either one of the main components or linked with the Asian system to constitute the modeling system of GEOSS for water cycle monitoring. We further propose expanded, augmented capability to run multiple grids to embrace some of the heterogeneous methods and formats of the Earth Science, Hydrology, and Hydraulic Engineering communities. Different methodologies are employed by the Earth Science (land surface modeling), the Hydrological (GIS), and the Hydraulic Engineering Communities; with each community employing models that require different input data. Data will be routed as input variables to the models through web services, allowing satellite and in situ data to be integrated together within the modeling framework. Semantic data integration will provide the automation to enable this system to operate in near-real-time. Multiple data collections for ground water, precipitation, soil moisture satellite data, such as SMAP, and lake data will require multiple low level ontologies, and an upper level ontology will permit user-friendly water management knowledge to be synthesized. These ontologies will have to have overlapping terms mapped and linked together. so

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-01-01

Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

A new global grid model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS precipitable water vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Liangke; Jiang, Weiping; Liu, Lilong; Chen, Hua; Ye, Shirong

2018-05-01

In ground-based global positioning system (GPS) meteorology, atmospheric weighted mean temperature, T_m , plays a very important role in the progress of retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay of the GPS. Generally, most of the existing T_m models only take either latitude or altitude into account in modeling. However, a great number of studies have shown that T_m is highly correlated with both latitude and altitude. In this study, a new global grid empirical T_m model, named as GGTm, was established by a sliding window algorithm using global gridded T_m data over an 8-year period from 2007 to 2014 provided by TU Vienna, where both latitude and altitude variations are considered in modeling. And the performance of GGTm was assessed by comparing with the Bevis formula and the GPT2w model, where the high-precision global gridded T_m data as provided by TU Vienna and the radiosonde data from 2015 are used as reference values. The results show the significant performance of the new GGTm model against other models when compared with gridded T_m data and radiosonde data, especially in the areas with great undulating terrain. Additionally, GGTm has the global mean RMS_{PWV} and RMS_{PWV} /PWV values of 0.26 mm and 1.28%, respectively. The GGTm model, fed only by the day of the year and the station coordinates, could provide a reliable and accurate T_m value, which shows the possible potential application in real-time GPS meteorology, especially for the application of low-latitude areas and western China.

Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2005-01-01

This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

Advances in Understanding Global Water Cycle with Advent of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Within this decade the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a global measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the global water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is the natural variability of a fixed rate cycle.

What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.

2016-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).

Assessment of the contamination of drinking water supply wells by pesticides from surface water resources using a finite element reactive transport model and global sensitivity analysis techniques

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malaguerra, Flavio; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Binning, Philip John

2013-01-01

A reactive transport model is employed to evaluate the potential for contamination of drinking water wells by surface water pollution. The model considers various geologic settings, includes sorption and degradation processes and is tested by comparison with data from a tracer experiment where...... fluorescein dye injected in a river is monitored at nearby drinking water wells. Three compounds were considered: an older pesticide MCPP (Mecoprop) which is mobile and relatively persistent, glyphosate (Roundup), a newer biodegradable and strongly sorbing pesticide, and its degradation product AMPA. Global...... sensitivity analysis using the Morris method is employed to identify the dominant model parameters. Results show that the characteristics of clay aquitards (degree of fracturing and thickness), pollutant properties and well depths are crucial factors when evaluating the risk of drinking water well...

Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

Bifurcation analysis of the simplified models of boiling water reactor and identification of global stability boundary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pandey, Vikas; Singh, Suneet, E-mail: suneet.singh@iitb.ac.in

2017-04-15

Highlights: • Non-linear stability analysis of nuclear reactor is carried out. • Global and local stability boundaries are drawn in the parameter space. • Globally stable, bi-stable, and unstable regions have been demarcated. • The identification of the regions is verified by numerical simulations. - Abstract: Nonlinear stability study of the neutron coupled thermal hydraulics instability has been carried out by several researchers for boiling water reactors (BWRs). The focus of these studies has been to identify subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. Supercritical Hopf bifurcation are soft or safe due to the fact that stable limit cycles arise in linearly unstable region; linear and global stability boundaries are same for this bifurcation. It is well known that the subcritical bifurcations can be considered as hard or dangerous due to the fact that unstable limit cycles (nonlinear phenomena) exist in the (linearly) stable region. The linear stability leads to a stable equilibrium in such regions, only for infinitesimally small perturbations. However, finite perturbations lead to instability due to the presence of unstable limit cycles. Therefore, it is evident that the linear stability analysis is not sufficient to understand the exact stability characteristics of BWRs. However, the effect of these bifurcations on the stability boundaries has been rarely discussed. In the present work, the identification of global stability boundary is demonstrated using simplified models. Here, five different models with different thermal hydraulics feedback have been investigated. In comparison to the earlier works, current models also include the impact of adding the rate of change in temperature on void reactivity as well as effect of void reactivity on rate of change of temperature. Using the bifurcation analysis of these models the globally stable region in the parameter space has been identified. The globally stable region has only stable solutions and

Bifurcation analysis of the simplified models of boiling water reactor and identification of global stability boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandey, Vikas; Singh, Suneet

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Non-linear stability analysis of nuclear reactor is carried out. • Global and local stability boundaries are drawn in the parameter space. • Globally stable, bi-stable, and unstable regions have been demarcated. • The identification of the regions is verified by numerical simulations. - Abstract: Nonlinear stability study of the neutron coupled thermal hydraulics instability has been carried out by several researchers for boiling water reactors (BWRs). The focus of these studies has been to identify subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. Supercritical Hopf bifurcation are soft or safe due to the fact that stable limit cycles arise in linearly unstable region; linear and global stability boundaries are same for this bifurcation. It is well known that the subcritical bifurcations can be considered as hard or dangerous due to the fact that unstable limit cycles (nonlinear phenomena) exist in the (linearly) stable region. The linear stability leads to a stable equilibrium in such regions, only for infinitesimally small perturbations. However, finite perturbations lead to instability due to the presence of unstable limit cycles. Therefore, it is evident that the linear stability analysis is not sufficient to understand the exact stability characteristics of BWRs. However, the effect of these bifurcations on the stability boundaries has been rarely discussed. In the present work, the identification of global stability boundary is demonstrated using simplified models. Here, five different models with different thermal hydraulics feedback have been investigated. In comparison to the earlier works, current models also include the impact of adding the rate of change in temperature on void reactivity as well as effect of void reactivity on rate of change of temperature. Using the bifurcation analysis of these models the globally stable region in the parameter space has been identified. The globally stable region has only stable solutions and

Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

2014-12-01

We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security.

Science.gov (United States)

Falkenmark, Malin

2013-11-13

As water is an essential component of the planetary life support system, water deficiency constitutes an insecurity that has to be overcome in the process of socio-economic development. The paper analyses the origin and appearance of blue as well as green water scarcity on different scales and with particular focus on risks to food production and water supply for municipalities and industry. It analyses water scarcity originating from both climatic phenomena and water partitioning disturbances on different scales: crop field, country level and the global circulation system. The implications by 2050 of water scarcity in terms of potential country-level water deficits for food self-reliance are analysed, and the compensating dependence on trade in virtual water for almost half the world population is noted. Planetary-scale conditions for sustainability of the global water circulation system are discussed in terms of a recently proposed Planetary Freshwater Boundary, and the consumptive water use reserve left to be shared between water requirements for global food production, fuelwood production and carbon sequestration is discussed. Finally, the importance of a paradigm shift in the further conceptual development of water security is stressed, so that adequate attention is paid to water's fundamental role in both natural and socio-economic systems.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

2017-05-01

The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

Challenges in global ballast water management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Endresen, Oyvind; Lee Behrens, Hanna; Brynestad, Sigrid; Bjoern Andersen, Aage; Skjong, Rolf

2004-01-01

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate

Infectious Disinfection: "Exploring Global Water Quality"

Science.gov (United States)

Mahaya, Evans; Tippins, Deborah J.; Mueller, Michael P.; Thomson, Norman

2009-01-01

Learning about the water situation in other regions of the world and the devastating effects of floods on drinking water helps students study science while learning about global water quality. This article provides science activities focused on developing cultural awareness and understanding how local water resources are integrally linked to the…

Global habitat suitability for framework-forming cold-water corals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Davies

Full Text Available Predictive habitat models are increasingly being used by conservationists, researchers and governmental bodies to identify vulnerable ecosystems and species' distributions in areas that have not been sampled. However, in the deep sea, several limitations have restricted the widespread utilisation of this approach. These range from issues with the accuracy of species presences, the lack of reliable absence data and the limited spatial resolution of environmental factors known or thought to control deep-sea species' distributions. To address these problems, global habitat suitability models have been generated for five species of framework-forming scleractinian corals by taking the best available data and using a novel approach to generate high resolution maps of seafloor conditions. High-resolution global bathymetry was used to resample gridded data from sources such as World Ocean Atlas to produce continuous 30-arc second (∼1 km(2 global grids for environmental, chemical and physical data of the world's oceans. The increased area and resolution of the environmental variables resulted in a greater number of coral presence records being incorporated into habitat models and higher accuracy of model predictions. The most important factors in determining cold-water coral habitat suitability were depth, temperature, aragonite saturation state and salinity. Model outputs indicated the majority of suitable coral habitat is likely to occur on the continental shelves and slopes of the Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Oceans. The North Pacific has very little suitable scleractinian coral habitat. Numerous small scale features (i.e., seamounts, which have not been sampled or identified as having a high probability of supporting cold-water coral habitat were identified in all ocean basins. Field validation of newly identified areas is needed to determine the accuracy of model results, assess the utility of modelling efforts to identify vulnerable marine

Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration.

Science.gov (United States)

Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

1988-09-01

A physically based ground hydrology model is developed to improve the land-surface sensible and latent heat calculations in global climate models (GCMs). The processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff are explicitly included in the model. The amount of detail in the hydrologic calculations is restricted to a level appropriate for use in a GCM, but each of the aforementioned processes is modeled on the basis of the underlying physical principles. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM are used as inputs for off-line tests of the ground hydrology model in four 8° × 10° regions (Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India). Soil and vegetation input parameters are calculated as area-weighted means over the 8° × 10° gridhox. This compositing procedure is tested by comparing resulting hydrological quantities to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1° × 1° cells which comprise the 8° × 10° gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure works well except in the Sahel where lower soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce more variability in hydrological quantities, indicating that a resolution better than 8° × 10° is needed for that region. Modeled annual and diurnal hydrological cycles compare well with observations for Brazil, where real world data are available. The sensitivity of the ground hydrology model to several of its input parameters was tested; it was found to be most sensitive to the fraction of land covered by vegetation and least sensitive to the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2013-01-01

An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

The surface energy, water, carbon flux and their intercorrelated seasonality in a global climate-vegetation coupled model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Dan.; Jinjun Ji

2007-01-01

The sensible and latent heat fluxes, representatives of the physical exchange processes of energy and water between land and air, are the two crucial variables controlling the surface energy partitioning related to temperature and humidity. The net primary production (NPP), the major carbon flux exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, is of great importance for the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The fluxes are simulated by a two-way coupled model, Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model-Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (AVIM-GOALS) in which the surface physical and physiological processes are coupled with general circulation model (GCM), and the global spatial and temporal variation of the fluxes is studied. The simulated terrestrial surface physical fluxes are consistent with the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) in the global distribution, but the magnitudes are generally 20-40 W/m 2 underestimated. The annual NPP agrees well with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) NPP data except for the lower value in northern high latitudes. The surface physical fluxes, leaf area index (LAI) and NPP of the global mid-latitudes, especially between 30 deg N-50 deg N, show great variation in annual oscillation amplitudes. And all physical and biological fields in northern mid-latitudes have the largest seasonality with a high statistical significance of 99.9%. The seasonality of surface physical fluxes, LAI and NPP are highly correlated with each other. The meridional three-peak pattern of seasonal change emerges in northern mid-latitudes, which indicates the interaction of topographical gradient variation of surface fluxes and vegetation phenology on these three latitudinal belts

Spacebased Observation of Water Balance Over Global Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W.; Xie, X.

2008-12-01

We demonstrated that ocean surface fresh water flux less the water discharge into the ocean from river and ice melt balances the mass loss in the ocean both in magnitude and in the phase of annual variation. The surface water flux was computed from the divergence of the water transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere. The atmospheric water transport is estimated from the precipitable water measured by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the surface wind vector by QuikSCAT, and the NOAA cloud drift wind through a statistical model. The transport has been extensively validated using global radiosonde and data and operational numerical weather prediction results. Its divergence has been shown to agree with the difference between evaporation estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer data and the precipitation measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission over the global tropical and subtropical oceans both in magnitude and geographical distribution for temporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interannual. The water loss rate in the ocean is estimated by two methods, one is from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the other is by subtracting the climatological steric change from the sea level change measured by radar altimeter on Jason. Only climatological river discharge and ice melt from in situ measurements are available and the lack of temporal variation may contribute to discrepancies in the balance. We have successfully used the spacebased surface fluxes to estimate to climatological mean heat transport in the Atlantic ocean and is attempting to estimate the meridional fresh water (or salt) transport from the surface flux. The approximate closure of the water balance gives a powerful indirect validation of the spacebased products.

Human-induced Terrestrial Water Storage Change: A Global Analysis using Hydrological Models and GRACE

Science.gov (United States)

Felfelani, F.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Hydrological models and data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage (TWS) change; however, both have disadvantages that necessitate the integrated use of them. While GRACE doesn't disintegrate the vertical storage into its components, most models do not account for human activities. Here we use two Land Surface Models (LSMs), i.e., HiGW-MAT and PCRGLOBWB that fully couple natural and human drivers of changes in water cycle, explicitly simulating the changes in various TWS compartments. We first evaluate the models performance with GRACE observations. Then, we quantify the human footprint over global river basins located in different geographic and climate regions. To quantify human impacts, a new framework is proposed based on the GRACE observations (representing both climate variability and human activities) together with the natural simulation of LSMs using water budget equation (P-ET-R; P for precipitation, ET for evapotranspiration, and R for runoff). Finally, we examine the uncertainty in TWS simulations arising from the uncertainties in forcing data. Results indicate that, in snow-dominated regions, PCRGLOBWB generally fails to reproduce neither the interannual variability of observed TWS nor the seasonal cycle, while HiGW-MAT model shows significantly better results. In basins with human signatures, PCRGLOBWB generally shows better agreement with GRACE compared to HiGW-MAT. It is found that HiGW-MAT tends to overestimate groundwater depletion in basins with human impacts (e.g., Amudarya, Colorado, Euphrates and Indus), which results in larger negative interannual TWS trend compared to GRACE. Euphrates and Ganges river basins experience the highest human-induced TWS deficit rates (2.08 cm/yr and 1.94 cm/yr, respectively) during the simulation period of 2002-2010. Uncertainty analysis of results from the same model but with different forcing data suggests a high standard

Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

2012-12-01

Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content

Science.gov (United States)

Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2015-12-01

The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for

Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

2018-01-01

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

Global Water Cycle Diagrams Minimize Human Influence and Over-represent Water Security

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, B. W.; Bishop, K.; Zarnetske, J. P.; Minaudo, C.; Chapin, F. S., III; Plont, S.; Marçais, J.; Ellison, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Kolbe, T.; Ursache, O.; Hampton, T. B.; GU, S.; Chapin, M.; Krause, S.; Henderson, K. D.; Hannah, D. M.; Pinay, G.

2017-12-01

The diagram of the global water cycle is the central icon of hydrology, and for many people, the point of entry to thinking about key scientific concepts such as conservation of mass, teleconnections, and human dependence on ecological systems. Because humans now dominate critical components of the hydrosphere, improving our understanding of the global water cycle has graduated from an academic exercise to an urgent priority. To assess how the water cycle is conceptualized by researchers and the general public, we analyzed 455 water cycle diagrams from textbooks, scientific articles, and online image searches performed in different languages. Only 15% of diagrams integrated human activity into the water cycle and 77% showed no sign of humans whatsoever, although representation of humans varied substantially by region (lowest in China, N. America, and Australia; highest in Western Europe). The abundance and accessibility of freshwater resources were overrepresented, with 98% of diagrams omitting water pollution and climate change, and over 90% of diagrams making no distinction for saline groundwater and lakes. Oceanic aspects of the water cycle (i.e. ocean size, circulation, and precipitation) and related teleconnections were nearly always underrepresented. These patterns held across disciplinary boundaries and through time. We explore the historical and contemporary reasons for some of these biases and present a revised version of the global water cycle based on research from natural and social sciences. We conclude that current depictions of the global water cycle convey a false sense of water security and that reintegrating humans into water cycle diagrams is an important first step towards understanding and sustaining the hydrosocial cycle.

GEWEX - The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Chahine, Moustafa T.

1992-01-01

GEWEX, which is part of the World Climate Research Program, has as its goal an order-of-magnitude improvement in the ability to model global precipitation and evaporation and furnish an accurate assessment of the sensitivity of atmospheric radiation and clouds. Attention will also be given to the response of the hydrological cycle and water resources to climate change. GEWEX employs a single program to coordinate all aspects of climatology from model development to the deployment and operation of observational systems. GEWEX will operate over the next two decades.

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

Water requirements for livestock production: a global perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlink, A C; Nguyen, M L; Viljoen, G J

2010-12-01

Water is a vital but poorly studied component of livestock production. It is estimated that livestock industries consume 8% of the global water supply, with most of that water being used for intensive, feed-based production. This study takes a broad perspective of livestock production as a component of the human food chain, and considers the efficiency of its water use. Global models are in the early stages of development and do not distinguish between developing and developed countries, or the production systems within them. However, preliminary indications are that, when protein production is adjusted for biological value in the human diet, no plant protein is significantly more efficient at using water than protein produced from eggs, and only soybean is more water efficient than milk and goat and chicken meat. In some regions, especially developing countries, animals are not used solely for food production but also provide draught power, fibre and fertiliser for crops. In addition, animals make use of crop by-products that would otherwise go to waste. The livestock sector is the fastest-growing agricultural sector, which has led to increasing industrialisation and, in some cases, reduced environmental constraints. In emerging economies, increasing involvement in livestock is related to improving rural wealth and increasing consumption of animal protein. Water usage for livestock production should be considered an integral part of agricultural water resource management, taking into account the type of production system (e.g. grain-fed or mixed crop-livestock) and scale (intensive or extensive), the species and breeds of livestock, and the social and cultural aspects of livestock farming in various countries.

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

2013-01-01

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, A. Y.; Chen, J.; Donges, J.

2015-07-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

The Spanish Food Industry on Global Supply Chains and Its Impact on Water Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa Duarte

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The study of the impact of economic activities on natural resources through global supply chains is increasingly demanded in the context of the growing globalization of economies and product fragmentation. Taking Spain as a case study and a sector with significant economic and environmental impacts, the agri-food industry, the objective of this work is two-fold. First, we estimate the associated water impact, both from the production and consumption perspectives, paying special attention to the water embodied in production exchanges among countries and sectors. To that aim, we use an environmentally-extended multiregional input-output model (MRIO. Second, we assess the main driving factors behind changes in direct and embodied water consumption between the years 1995 and 2009 by means of a structural decomposition analysis. The MRIO model provides a comprehensive estimate of the economic linkages among regions and economic sectors and, therefore, allows calculating the environmental impacts over international value chains. The results indicate that the food industry exerts large impacts on global water resources, particularly given the remarkable interactions with the domestic and foreign agricultural sectors, These growing linkages show how consumption patterns, and, therefore, lifestyles, involve large environmental impacts through the whole and global supply chains.

Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

OpenAIRE

Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

2016-01-01

A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7%?°C?1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for...

Accuracy limit of rigid 3-point water models

Science.gov (United States)

Izadi, Saeed; Onufriev, Alexey V.

2016-08-01

Classical 3-point rigid water models are most widely used due to their computational efficiency. Recently, we introduced a new approach to constructing classical rigid water models [S. Izadi et al., J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 5, 3863 (2014)], which permits a virtually exhaustive search for globally optimal model parameters in the sub-space that is most relevant to the electrostatic properties of the water molecule in liquid phase. Here we apply the approach to develop a 3-point Optimal Point Charge (OPC3) water model. OPC3 is significantly more accurate than the commonly used water models of same class (TIP3P and SPCE) in reproducing a comprehensive set of liquid bulk properties, over a wide range of temperatures. Beyond bulk properties, we show that OPC3 predicts the intrinsic charge hydration asymmetry (CHA) of water — a characteristic dependence of hydration free energy on the sign of the solute charge — in very close agreement with experiment. Two other recent 3-point rigid water models, TIP3PFB and H2ODC, each developed by its own, completely different optimization method, approach the global accuracy optimum represented by OPC3 in both the parameter space and accuracy of bulk properties. Thus, we argue that an accuracy limit of practical 3-point rigid non-polarizable models has effectively been reached; remaining accuracy issues are discussed.

Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

2015-04-01

Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential part of environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources research and management. This is mainly because of the notion that models developed by scientists for scientific purposes are often not suitable for practical management for several reasons, such as (too) high complexity, low user-friendliness and lack of problem/solution orientation. Participation is seen as a key concept for bridging the gap between modelers and stakeholders. In this submission we focus on the PM-process in the GLOWA-Danube (GD) project (German Ministry of Education and Research, 2001-2011). GD was carried out by an interdisciplinary consortium of 17 research organizations. The main goal was to develop and to use the integrated modelling system DANUBIA as a tool to evaluate the impact of global change on the Upper Danube Catchment (Southern Germany, 77,000 km^2) and to discuss the implications with relevant stakeholders. An intensive stakeholder dialoged was carried out to include the perspective of stakeholders and end-users in the model and scenario development - with the final goal of facilitating implementation of DANUBIA in practical management after termination of the scientific project. This contribution looks at the specific conditions for PM in the field of global change scenarios and complex integrated models. The different phases of the PM process in GD are presented along with a discussion of the respective results. Overall, the impact of stakeholder interaction on the model development was much lower than expected. The ultimate goal of using the PM process to develop DANUBIA as a tool used in practical management after termination of the scientific project was not reached. However, implications of climate change and modelling could be discussed with the stakeholders involved and relevant learning processes on both sides (scientists and stakeholders) were facilitated in the final phase. In the

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

2015-01-01

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartout, Pascal

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Bartram, Jamie; Brocklehurst, Clarissa; Fisher, Michael B.; Luyendijk, Rolf; Hossain, Rifat; Wardlaw, Tessa; Gordon, Bruce

2014-01-01

International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally-representative and internationally-comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation. PMID:25116635

Global land-water nexus: Agricultural land and freshwater use embodied in worldwide supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B; Han, M Y; Peng, K; Zhou, S L; Shao, L; Wu, X F; Wei, W D; Liu, S Y; Li, Z; Li, J S; Chen, G Q

2018-02-01

As agricultural land and freshwater inextricably interrelate and interact with each other, the conventional water and land policy in "silos" should give way to nexus thinking when formulating the land and water management strategies. This study constructs a systems multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to expound global land-water nexus by simultaneously tracking agricultural land and freshwater use flows along the global supply chains. Furthermore, land productivity and irrigation water requirements of 160 crops in different regions are investigated to reflect the land-water linkage. Results show that developed economies (e.g., USA and Japan) and major large developing economies (e.g., mainland China and India) are the overriding drivers of agricultural land and freshwater use globally. In general, significant net transfers of these two resources are identified from resource-rich and less-developed economies to resource-poor and more-developed economies. For some crops, blue water productivity is inversely related to land productivity, indicating that irrigation water consumption is sometimes at odds with land use. The results could stimulus international cooperation for sustainable land and freshwater management targeting on original suppliers and final consumers along the global supply chains. Moreover, crop-specific land-water linkage could provide insights for trade-off decisions on minimizing the environmental impacts on local land and water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

Closing of water circuits - a global benchmark on sustainable water management

Science.gov (United States)

Fröhlich, Siegmund

2017-11-01

Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: "The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water." [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koch, Hagen; Voegele, Stefan

2009-01-01

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. (author)

Globalization of water and food through international trade: impacts on food security, resilience and justice

Science.gov (United States)

D'Odorico, P.; Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.; Suweis, S. S.

2015-12-01

The global distribution of water resources in general depends on geographic conditions but can be (virtually) modified by humans through mechanisms of globalization, such as trade, that make food commodities available to populations living far from the production regions. While trade is expected to improve access to food and (virtual) water, its impact on the global food system and its vulnerability to shocks remains poorly understood. It is also unclear who benefits from trade and whether it contributes to inequality and justice in resource redistribution. We reconstruct the global patterns of food trade and show with a simple model how the ongoing intensification of imports and exports has eroded the resilience of the global food system. Drawing on human rights theory, we investigate the relationship between inequality and injustice in access to water and food. We assess the fulfillment of positive and negative water and food rights and evaluate the obligations arising from the need to ensure that these rights are met throughout the world. We find that trade enhances the vulnerability to shocks but overall increase the number of people whose water and food rights are met.

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Dickey, Jean O.

1999-01-01

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space

The global distribution of deep-water Antipatharia habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Yesson, Chris; Bedford, Faye; Rogers, Alex D.; Taylor, Michelle L.

2017-11-01

Antipatharia are a diverse group of corals with many species found in deep water. Many Antipatharia are habitat for associates, have extreme longevity and some species can occur beyond 8500 m depth. As they are major constituents of'coral gardens', which are Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs), knowledge of their distribution and environmental requirements is an important pre-requisite for informed conservation planning particularly where the expense and difficulty of deep-sea sampling prohibits comprehensive surveys. This study uses a global database of Antipatharia distribution data to perform habitat suitability modelling using the Maxent methodology to estimate the global extent of black coral habitat suitability. The model of habitat suitability is driven by temperature but there is notable influence from other variables of topography, surface productivity and oxygen levels. This model can be used to predict areas of suitable habitat, which can be useful for conservation planning. The global distribution of Antipatharia habitat suitability shows a marked contrast with the distribution of specimen observations, indicating that many potentially suitable areas have not been sampled, and that sampling effort has been disproportionate to shallow, accessible areas inside marine protected areas (MPAs). Although 25% of Antipatharia observations are located in MPAs, only 7-8% of predicted suitable habitat is protected, which is short of the Convention on Biological Diversity target to protect 10% of ocean habitats by 2020.

Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

OpenAIRE

A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

2012-01-01

Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

2016-04-01

Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

1996-01-01

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Physical model of optical inhomogeneities of water

Science.gov (United States)

Shybanov, E. B.

2017-11-01

The paper is devoted to theoretical aspects of the light scattering of water that does not contain suspended particles. To be consistent with current physical point of view the water as far as any liquid is regarded as a complex unstable nonergodic media. It was proposed that at fixed time the water as a condensed medium had global inhomogeneities similar to linear and planar defects in a solid. Anticipated own global inhomogeneities of water have been approximated by the system randomly distributed spherical clusters filling the entire water bulk. An analytical expression for the single scattered light has been derived. The formula simultaneously describes both the high anisotropy of light scattering and the high degree of polarization which one close to those for molecular scattering. It is shown that at general angles there is a qualitative coincidence with the two-component Kopelevich's model for the light scattering by marine particles. On the contrary towards to forwards angles the spectral law becomes much more prominent i.e. it corresponds to results for model of optically soft particles.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss

LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

Science.gov (United States)

Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

2018-04-01

This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

2012-04-01

Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, S.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in

A simple groundwater scheme in the TRIP river routing model: global off-line evaluation against GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates and observed river discharges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-P. Vergnes

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Groundwater is a non-negligible component of the global hydrological cycle, and its interaction with overlying unsaturated zones can influence water and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. Despite its importance, groundwater is not yet represented in most climate models. In this paper, the simple groundwater scheme implemented in the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP river routing model is applied in off-line mode at global scale using a 0.5° model resolution. The simulated river discharges are evaluated against a large dataset of about 3500 gauging stations compiled from the Global Data Runoff Center (GRDC and other sources, while the terrestrial water storage (TWS variations derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite mission help to evaluate the simulated TWS. The forcing fields (surface runoff and deep drainage come from an independent simulation of the Interactions between Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model covering the period from 1950 to 2008. Results show that groundwater improves the efficiency scores for about 70% of the gauging stations and deteriorates them for 15%. The simulated TWS are also in better agreement with the GRACE estimates. These results are mainly explained by the lag introduced by the low-frequency variations of groundwater, which tend to shift and smooth the simulated river discharges and TWS. A sensitivity study on the global precipitation forcing used in ISBA to produce the forcing fields is also proposed. It shows that the groundwater scheme is not influenced by the uncertainties in precipitation data.

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joe LoBuglio

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11% use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18% use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-01-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

Closing of water circuits – a global benchmark on sustainable water management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fröhlich Siegmund

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: “The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water.” [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

Sustainable water future with global implications: everyone's responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuylenstierna, J L; Bjorklund, G; Najlis, P

1997-01-01

The current use and management of freshwater is not sustainable in many countries and regions of the world. If current trends are maintained, about two-thirds of the world's population will face moderate to severe water stress by 2025 compared to one-third at present. This water stress will hamper economic and social development unless action is taken to deal with the emerging problems. The Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, prepared by the UN and the Stockholm Environment Institute, calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration of freshwater resources. Although most problems related to water quantity and quality require national and regional solutions, only a global commitment can achieve the necessary agreement on principles, as well as financial means to attain sustainability. Due to the central and integrated role played by water in human activities, any measures taken need to incorporate a wide range of social, ecological and economic factors and needs. The Assessment thus addresses the many issues related to freshwater use, such as integrated land and water management at the watershed level, global food security, water supply and sanitation, ecosystem requirements, pollution, strengthening of major groups, and national water resource assessment capabilities and monitoring networks. Governments are urged to work towards a consensus regarding global principles and guidelines for integrated water management, and towards their implementation in local and regional water management situations. The alternative development options available to countries facing water stress, or the risk thereof, needs to be considered in all aspects of development planning.

Mapping global surface water inundation dynamics using synergistic information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

Science.gov (United States)

Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Kim, S.; Chan, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Jones, L. A.; Watts, J. D.

2017-12-01

A method to monitor global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fwLBand) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency Tb observations from AMSR2. The resulting fwLBand global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The fwLBand annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, pretrievals showed favourable classification accuracy for water (commission error 31.84%; omission error 28.08%) and land (commission error 0.82%; omission error 0.99%) and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new fwLBand algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics, potentially benefiting hydrological monitoring, flood assessments, and global climate and carbon modeling.

Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals

Science.gov (United States)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-12-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Science.gov (United States)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-01-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

2006-01-01

Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

2011-01-01

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Siemann, Amanda L.; Fisher, Colby K.; Liang, Miaoling; Beck, Hylke E.; Wanders, Niko; MacCracken, Rosalyn F.; Houser, Paul R.; Zhou, Tian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Pinker, Rachel T.; Bytheway, Janice; Kummerow, Christian D.; Wood, Eric F.

2018-01-01

Closing the terrestrial water budget is necessary to provide consistent estimates of budget components for understanding water resources and changes over time. Given the lack of in situ observations of budget components at anything but local scale, merging information from multiple data sources (e.g., in situ observation, satellite remote sensing, land surface model, and reanalysis) through data assimilation techniques that optimize the estimation of fluxes is a promising approach. Conditioned on the current limited data availability, a systematic method is developed to optimally combine multiple available data sources for precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and the total water storage change (TWSC) at 0.5° spatial resolution globally and to obtain water budget closure (i.e., to enforce P - ET - R - TWSC = 0) through a constrained Kalman filter (CKF) data assimilation technique under the assumption that the deviation from the ensemble mean of all data sources for the same budget variable is used as a proxy of the uncertainty in individual water budget variables. The resulting long-term (1984-2010), monthly 0.5° resolution global terrestrial water cycle Climate Data Record (CDR) data set is developed under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) program. This data set serves to bridge the gap between sparsely gauged regions and the regions with sufficient in situ observations in investigating the temporal and spatial variability in the terrestrial hydrology at multiple scales. The CDR created in this study is validated against in situ measurements like river discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and ET from FLUXNET. The data set is shown to be reliable and can serve the scientific community in understanding historical climate variability in water cycle fluxes and stores, benchmarking the current climate, and

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

Global Water Governance in the Context of Global and Multilevel Governance: Its Need, Form, and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joyeeta Gupta

2013-12-01

Full Text Available To complement this Special Feature on global water governance, we focused on a generic challenge at the global level, namely, the degree to which water issues need to be dealt with in a centralized, concentrated, and hierarchical manner. We examined water ecosystem services and their impact on human well-being, the role of policies, indirect and direct drivers in influencing these services, and the administrative level(s at which the provision of services and potential trade-offs can be dealt with. We applied a politics of scale perspective to understand motivations for defining a problem at the global or local level and show that the multilevel approach to water governance is evolving and inevitable. We argue that a centralized overarching governance system for water is unlikely and possibly undesirable; however, there is a need for a high-level think tank and leadership to develop a cosmopolitan perspective to promote sustainable water development.

Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Freshwater and Associated Grey Water Footprints and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater and the associated grey water footprints (GWFs) for the period 2002-2010, at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 arc min, and compare the GWF per river basin to runoff to assess the P-related water pollution level (WPL). The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources is estimated at 1.5 Tg/yr. More than half of this total load was in Asia, followed by Europe (19%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (13%). The domestic sector contributed 54% to the total, agriculture 38%, and industry 8%. In agriculture, cereals production had the largest contribution to the P load (31%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing 15%. The global total GWF related to anthropogenic P loads is estimated to be 147 × 1012 m3/yr, with China contributing 30%, India 8%, USA 7%, and Spain and Brazil 6% each. The basins with WPL > 1 (where GWF exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity) together cover about 38% of the global land area, 37% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to about 90% of the global population.

The Open Global Glacier Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

HydroGrid: Technologies for Global Water Quality and Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Yeghiazarian, L.

2017-12-01

Humans have been transforming planet Earth for millennia. We have recently come to understand that the collective impact of our decisions and actions has brought about severe water quality problems, which are likely to worsen in the light of rapid population growth to the projected nine billion by 2050. To sustainably manage our global water resources and possibly reverse these effects requires efforts in real-time monitoring of water contamination, analysis of monitoring data, and control of the state of water contamination. We develop technologies to address all three areas: monitoring, analysis and control. These efforts are carried out in the conceptual framework of the HydroGrid, an interconnected water system, which is (1) firmly rooted in the fundamental understanding of processes that govern microbial dynamics on multiple scales; and (2) used to develop watershed-specific management strategies. In the area of monitoring we are developing mobile autonomous sensors to detect surface water contamination, an effort supported by extensive materials research to provide multifunctional materials. We analyze environmental data within a stochastic modeling paradigm that bridges microscopic particle interactions to macroscopic manifestation of microbial population behavior in time and space in entire watersheds. These models are supported with laboratory and field experiments. Finally, we combine control and graph theories to derive controllability metrics of natural watersheds.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

A review of hydrological/water-quality models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangliang GAO,Daoliang LI

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Water quality models are important in predicting the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. A range of water quality models are wildly used, but every model has its advantages and limitations for specific situations. The aim of this review is to provide a guide to researcher for selecting a suitable water quality model. Eight well known water quality models were selected for this review: SWAT, WASP, QUALs, MIKE 11, HSPF, CE-QUAL-W2, ELCOM-CAEDYM and EFDC. Each model is described according to its intended use, development, simulation elements, basic principles and applicability (e.g., for rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and estuaries. Currently, the most important trends for future model development are: (1 combination models─individual models cannot completely solve the complex situations so combined models are needed to obtain the most appropriate results, (2 application of artificial intelligence and mechanistic models combined with non-mechanistic models will provide more accurate results because of the realistic parameters derived from non-mechanistic models, and (3 integration with remote sensing, geographical information and global position systems (3S ─3S can solve problems requiring large amounts of data.

Global distributions of water vapour isotopologues retrieved from IMG/ADEOS data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Herbin

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The isotopologic composition of water vapour in the atmosphere provides valuable information on many climate, chemical and dynamical processes. The accurate measurements of the water isotopologues by remote-sensing techniques remains a challenge, due to the large spatial and temporal variations. Simultaneous profile retrievals of the main water isotopologues (i.e. H₂¹⁶O, H₂¹⁸O and HDO and their ratios are presented here for the first time, along their retrieved global distributions. The results are obtained by exploiting the high resolution infrared spectra recorded by the Interferometric Monitor for Greenhouse gases (IMG instrument, which has operated in the nadir geometry onboard the ADEOS satellite between 1996 and 1997. The retrievals are performed on cloud-free radiances, measured during ten days of April 1997, considering two atmospheric windows (1205–1228 cm⁻¹; 2004–2032 cm⁻¹ and using a line-by-line radiative transfer model and an inversion procedure based on the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM. Characterizations in terms of vertical sensitivity and error budget are provided. We show that a relatively high vertical resolution is achieved for H₂¹⁶O (~4–5 km, and that the retrieved profiles are in fair agreement with local sonde measurements, at different latitudes. The retrieved global distributions of H₂¹⁶O, H₂¹⁸O, HDO and their ratios are presented and found to be consistent with previous experimental studies and models. The Ocean-Continent difference, the latitudinal and vertical dependence of the water vapour amount and the isotopologic depletion are notably well reproduced. Others trends, possibly related to small-scale variations in the vertical profiles are also discussed. Despite the difficulties encountered for computing accurately the isotopologic ratios, our results demonstrate the ability

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; LeVine, David M.; Chao, Y.; Colomb, F. Raul; Font, J.

2007-01-01

influence of the oceanic water cycle requires more accurately resolving the net air-sea water flux. Measuring global SSS trends on seasonal to interannual timescales by satellite is fundamental to this problem because the SSS trends represent detectable time-integrated signals of the variable marine hydrological cycle. Satellite measurements, coupled with an array of in situ observations, will provide global synoptic SSS fields for the first time history. These data will provide a strong constraint on climate models and data assimilation efforts, which must properly represent the freshwater budget in terms of E-P, ocean advection and surface layer mixing in order to accurately simulate the true ocean state. The SSS fields will allow us to quantify the covariability between the SSS and the strong seasonal E-P cycle in the tropics and high latitudes. Field measurement campaigns to exploit satellite and in situ measurements to close the seasonal E-P cycle over an ocean region are being considered. Lastly the satellite systems will monitor and trace the large long-lived SSS anomalies from year to year that have the potential to influence El Nino and the large scale ocean circulation.

River Export of Plastic from Land to Sea: A Global Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Siegfried, Max; Gabbert, Silke; Koelmans, Albert A.; Kroeze, Carolien; Löhr, Ansje; Verburg, Charlotte

2016-04-01

Plastic is increasingly considered a serious cause of water pollution. It is a threat to aquatic ecosystems, including rivers, coastal waters and oceans. Rivers transport considerable amounts of plastic from land to sea. The quantity and its main sources, however, are not well known. Assessing the amount of macro- and microplastic transport from river to sea is, therefore, important for understanding the dimension and the patterns of plastic pollution of aquatic ecosystems. In addition, it is crucial for assessing short- and long-term impacts caused by plastic pollution. Here we present a global modelling approach to quantify river export of plastic from land to sea. Our approach accounts for different types of plastic, including both macro- and micro-plastics. Moreover, we distinguish point sources and diffuse sources of plastic in rivers. Our modelling approach is inspired by global nutrient models, which include more than 6000 river basins. In this paper, we will present our modelling approach, as well as first model results for micro-plastic pollution in European rivers. Important sources of micro-plastics include personal care products, laundry, household dust and car tyre wear. We combine information on these sources with information on sewage management, and plastic retention during river transport for the largest European rivers. Our modelling approach may help to better understand and prevent water pollution by plastic , and at the same time serves as 'proof of concept' for future application on global scale.

Global costs and benefits of reaching universal coverage of sanitation and drinking-water supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutton, Guy

2013-03-01

Economic evidence on the cost and benefits of sanitation and drinking-water supply supports higher allocation of resources and selection of efficient and affordable interventions. The study aim is to estimate global and regional costs and benefits of sanitation and drinking-water supply interventions to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target in 2015, as well as to attain universal coverage. Input data on costs and benefits from reviewed literature were combined in an economic model to estimate the costs and benefits, and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). Benefits included health and access time savings. Global BCRs (Dollar return per Dollar invested) were 5.5 for sanitation, 2.0 for water supply and 4.3 for combined sanitation and water supply. Globally, the costs of universal access amount to US$ 35 billion per year for sanitation and US$ 17.5 billion for drinking-water, over the 5-year period 2010-2015 (billion defined as 10(9) here and throughout). The regions accounting for the major share of costs and benefits are South Asia, East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Improved sanitation and drinking-water supply deliver significant economic returns to society, especially sanitation. Economic evidence should further feed into advocacy efforts to raise funding from governments, households and the private sector.

Towards integrated solutions for water, energy, and land using an integrated nexus modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated

Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

2017-12-01

Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2011-01-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Assessing the value of the ATL13 inland water level product for the Global Flood Partnership

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, G.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Jasinski, M. F.

2015-12-01

This paper reports on the activities and first results of an our ICESat-2 Early Adopter (EA) project for inland water observations. Our team will assess the value of the ICESat-2 water level product using two flood model use cases, one over the California Bay Delta and one over the Niger Inland Delta. Application of the ALT13 product into routine operations will be ensured via an ALT13 database integrated into the pillar "Global Flood Service and Toolbox" (GFST) of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). GFP is a cooperation framework between scientific organizations and flood disaster managers worldwide to develop flood observational and modelling infrastructure, leveraging on existing initiatives for better predicting and managing flood disaster impacts and flood risk globally. GFP is hosted as an Expert Working Group by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS). The objective of this EA project is to make the ICESat-2 water level data available to the international GFP community. The EA team believes that the ALT13 product, after successful demonstration of its value in model calibration/validation and monitoring of large floodplain inundation dynamics, should be made easily accessible to the GFP. The GFST will host data outputs and tools from different flood models and for different applications and regions. All these models can benefit from ALT13 if made available to GFP through GFST. Here, we will introduce both test cases and their model setups and report on first preliminary "capabilities" test runs with the Niger model and ICESat-1 as well as radar altimeter data. Based on our results, we will also reflect on expected capabilities and potential of the ICESat-2 mission for river observations.

Historical effects of CO2 and climate trends on global crop water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

2017-12-01

A critical question for agricultural production and food security is how water demand for staple crops will respond to climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) changes1, especially in light of the expected increases in extreme heat exposure2. To quantify the trade-offs between the effects of climate and CO2 on water demand, we use a `sink-strength' model of demand3,4 which relies on the vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), incident radiation and the efficiencies of canopy-radiation use and canopy transpiration; the latter two are both dependent on CO2. This model is applied to a global data set of gridded monthly weather data over the cropping regions of maize, soybean, wheat and rice during the years 1948-2013. We find that this approach agrees well with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PM) for the C3 crops of soybean, wheat and rice, where the competing CO2 effects largely cancel each other out, but that water demand in maize is significantly overstated by a demand measure that does not include CO2, such as the PM. We find the largest changes in wheat, for which water demand has increased since 1981 over 86% of the global cropping area and by 2.3-3.6 percentage points per decade in different regions.

Mapping Global Ocean Surface Albedo from Satellite Observations: Models, Algorithms, and Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.; Fan, X.; Yan, H.; Li, A.; Wang, M.; Qu, Y.

2018-04-01

Ocean surface albedo (OSA) is one of the important parameters in surface radiation budget (SRB). It is usually considered as a controlling factor of the heat exchange among the atmosphere and ocean. The temporal and spatial dynamics of OSA determine the energy absorption of upper level ocean water, and have influences on the oceanic currents, atmospheric circulations, and transportation of material and energy of hydrosphere. Therefore, various parameterizations and models have been developed for describing the dynamics of OSA. However, it has been demonstrated that the currently available OSA datasets cannot full fill the requirement of global climate change studies. In this study, we present a literature review on mapping global OSA from satellite observations. The models (parameterizations, the coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer (COART), and the three component ocean water albedo (TCOWA)), algorithms (the estimation method based on reanalysis data, and the direct-estimation algorithm), and datasets (the cloud, albedo and radiation (CLARA) surface albedo product, dataset derived by the TCOWA model, and the global land surface satellite (GLASS) phase-2 surface broadband albedo product) of OSA have been discussed, separately.

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

2014-05-01

In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

Global Delivery Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

2013-01-01

This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

2013-01-01

Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

Global Least-cost User-friendly CLEWs Open-Source Exploratory (GLUCOSE) Model

Science.gov (United States)

Taliotis, Constantinos; Roehrl, Richard Alexander; Howells, Mark

2016-04-01

A changing climate will force us to consider broad resource management questions. Land, energy and water are some of our most precious resources. The systems that provide them are highly interlinked, vulnerable and contribute to climate change. The UN recognizes the need for integrated assessment of the food-water-energy nexus in international negotiations; highlighted by the inclusion of the Climate, Land-use, Energy and Water (CLEW) nexus in the upcoming Global Sustainable Development Report. This effort provides a toolkit to assist in the formulation of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Building on initial CLEW assessments, we propose the formulation of a fully integrated CLEW modelling tool to enable resource assessments, a global CLEW model, and focusing on scenarios with particular relevance to the climate change and sustainable development discourse. The aim of the overall effort is to create a transparent tool to act as a simplified testing ground for policies and allow the visualisation and assessment of different policy pathways in regards to sustainable development on a global scale. This tool will allow for the identification of potential trade-offs and synergies between sectors in CLEWs and material industry. It should be highlighted that we refrain from implying that this model will be characterized by a high predictive capacity; on the contrary, its main purpose is to provide an initial set of communicable insights and indications to facilitate decision-making on potential plans and strategies.

Strategies for ensuring global consistency/comparability of water-quality data

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, J.M.

1999-01-01

In the past 20 years the water quality of the United States has improved remarkably-the waters are safer for drinking, swimming, and fishing. However, despite many accomplishments, it is still difficult to answer such basic questions as: 'How clean is the water?' and 'How is it changing over time?' These same questions exist on a global scale as well. In order to focus water-data issues in the United States, a national Intergovernmental Task Force on Monitoring Water Quality (ITFM) was initiated for public and private organizations, whereby key elements involved in data collection, analysis, storage, and management could be made consistent and comparable. The ITFM recommended and its members are implementing a nationwide strategy to improve water-quality monitoring, assessment, and reporting activities. The intent of this paper is to suggest that a voluntary effort be initiated to ensure the comparability and utility of hydrological data on a global basis. Consistent, long-term data sets that are comparable are necessary in order to formulate ideas regarding regional and global trends in water quantity and quality. The author recommends that a voluntary effort similar to the ITFM effort be utilized. The strategy proposed would involve voluntary representation from countries and international organizations (e.g. World Health Organization) involved in drinking-water assessments and/or ambient water-quality monitoring. Voluntary partnerships such as this will improve curability to reduce health risks and achieve a better return on public and private investments in monitoring, environmental protection, and natural resource management, and result in a collaborative process that will save millions of dollars.In this work it is suggested that a voluntary effort be initiated to ensure the comparability and utility of hydrological data on a global basis. The strategy proposed would involve voluntary representation from countries and international organizations involved in

Does global progress on sanitation really lag behind water? An analysis of global progress on community- and household-level access to safe water and sanitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, Oliver; Elliott, Mark; Overbo, Alycia; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Safe drinking water and sanitation are important determinants of human health and wellbeing and have recently been declared human rights by the international community. Increased access to both were included in the Millennium Development Goals under a single dedicated target for 2015. This target was reached in 2010 for water but sanitation will fall short; however, there is an important difference in the benchmarks used for assessing global access. For drinking water the benchmark is community-level access whilst for sanitation it is household-level access, so a pit latrine shared between households does not count toward the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target. We estimated global progress for water and sanitation under two scenarios: with equivalent household- and community-level benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that the "sanitation deficit" is apparent only when household-level sanitation access is contrasted with community-level water access. When equivalent benchmarks are used for water and sanitation, the global deficit is as great for water as it is for sanitation, and sanitation progress in the MDG-period (1990-2015) outstrips that in water. As both drinking water and sanitation access yield greater benefits at the household-level than at the community-level, we conclude that any post-2015 goals should consider a household-level benchmark for both.

Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

2017-12-01

Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

Global ice sheet modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

1994-05-01

The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Myriokefalitakis

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous-phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol. Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 1.16 ± 0.14, r² = 0.36, N = 114 and suggest that aqueous-phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-cloud and less than 5 % is produced in aerosol water. About 62 % of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 30 % by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical, 4 % by in-cloud reaction with nitrate radical and 4 % by dry deposition. The in-cloud global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 21–37 Tg yr⁻¹ with almost 79 % originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.2–0.3 Tg, i.e. 0.05–0.1 Tg-C that is about 5–9 % of model-calculated water soluble organic carbon burden.

Advances In Understanding Global Water Cycle With Advent of GPM Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

During the coming decade, the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space based on an international fleet of satellites operated as a constellation. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the Earth's water cycle from a global measurement perspective and on down to regional scales and below. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper first presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its overriding scientific objectives for climate, weather, and hydrology flow from the anticipated improvements that are being planned for the constellation-based measuring system. Next, the paper shows how the GPM observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is simply part of the natural

Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

2010-12-01

More than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface is covered by grassland, which is also the major part (~ 70 %) of the agricultural area. Most of this area is used for livestock production in different degrees of intensity. The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (Sitch et al., Global Change Biology, 2003; Bondeau et al., Global Change Biology, 2007) is one of few process-based model that simulates biomass production on managed grasslands at the global scale. The implementation of managed grasslands and its evaluation has received little attention so far, as reference data on grassland productivity are scarce and the definition of grassland extent and usage are highly uncertain. However, grassland productivity is related to large areas, and strongly influences global estimates of carbon and water budgets and should thus be improved. Plants are implemented in LPJmL in an aggregated form as plant functional types assuming that processes concerning carbon and water fluxes are quite similar between species of the same type. Therefore, the parameterization of a functional type is possible with parameters in a physiologically meaningful range of values. The actual choice of the parameter values from the possible and reasonable phase space should satisfy the condition of the best fit of model results and measured data. In order to improve the parameterization of managed grass we follow a combined procedure using model output and measured data of carbon and water fluxes. By comparing carbon and water fluxes simultaneously, we expect well-balanced refinements and avoid over-tuning of the model in only one direction. The comparison of annual biomass from grassland to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) per country provide an overview about the order of magnitude and the identification of deviations. The comparison of daily net primary productivity, soil respiration and water fluxes at specific sites (FluxNet Data) provides

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-08-01

Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled

Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

2013-01-01

This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seekell, D A; D'Odorico, P; Pace, M L

2011-01-01

The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seekell, D A; D' Odorico, P; Pace, M L [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

2011-04-15

The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Hybrid Analysis of Blue Water Consumption and Water Scarcity Implications at the Global, National, and Basin Levels in an Increasingly Globalized World.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ranran; Zimmerman, Julie

2016-05-17

As the fifth global water footprint assessment, this study enhanced previous estimates of national blue water consumption (including fresh surface and groundwater) and main economic activities with (1) improved spatial and sectoral resolution and (2) quantified the impacts of virtual water trade on water use and water stress at both the national and basin level. In 2007, 1194 Gm(3) of blue water was consumed globally for human purposes. The consuming (producing) of primary and manufactured goods and services from the sectors of "Primary Crops and Livestock", "Primary Energy and Minerals", "Processed Food and Beverages", "Non-food Manufactured Products", "Electricity", "Commercial and Public Services", and "Households" accounted for 33% (91%), ∼ 0% (1%), 37% (water consumption, respectively. The considerable differences in sectoral water consumption accounted for by the two perspectives (consumption- vs production-based) highlight the significance of the water consumed indirectly, upstream in the supply chain (i.e., > 70% of total blue water consumption) while offering additional insights into the water implications of critical interconnected economic activities, such as the water-energy nexus. With 145 Gm(3) (12%) of the blue water consumption embedded in the goods and services traded internationally, 89 countries analyzed were net blue water importers at the national level. On the basin level, the impacts of virtual water trade on water stress were statistically significant for basins across the world and within 104 countries; virtual water trade mitigated water stress for the basins within 85 of the 104 countries, including all of those where there are moderate and greater water stress countrywide (except Italy).

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2017-01-01

Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

2017-04-01

The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

Process-based modelling of phosphorus transformations and retention in global rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollon, Jose; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex

2016-04-01

Phosphorus (P) plays a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. It typically acts as the limiting nutrient for primary productivity in freshwater bodies, and thus the increase in anthropogenic P loads during the XXth century has fuelled the eutrophication of these systems. Total P retention in global rivers has also escalated over this timeframe as demonstrated via a global model that implements the spiralling method at a spatial resolution of 0.5° (IMAGE-GNM, Beusen et al., 2015). Here, we refine this coupled hydrological - nutrient model by including mechanistic biogeochemical interactions that govern the P cycle. Special attention is paid to the representation of particle processes (i.e. particle loading, sedimentation and erosion), which play a major role in P transport and accumulation in aquatic systems. Our preliminary results are compared to measurements of suspended sediments, total P and orthophosphates in selected river basins. Initial model results show that P concentrations are particularly sensitive to particulate load distribution in the river network within a grid cell. This novel modelling approach will eventually allow a better assessment of the amounts of different forms of P (organic P, soluble reactive P, and particulate inorganic P), of P transformation rates and retention in inland waters. References Beusen, A.H.W., Van Beek, L.P.H., Bouwman, A.F., Mogollón, J.M., Middelburg, J.J. 2015. Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water - description of the IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 4045-4067

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric F.

2014-05-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

Science.gov (United States)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-01-01

A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-21

Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

Modelling, interpolation and stochastic simulation in space and time of global solar radiation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bechini, L.; Ducco, G.; Donatelli, M.; Stein, A.

2000-01-01

Global solar radiation data used as daily inputs for most cropping systems and water budget models are frequently available from only a few weather stations and over short periods of time. To overcome this limitation, the Campbell–Donatelli model relates daily maximum and minimum air temperatures to

Integrated Water Resources Management: A Global Review

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, V.; Cohen, M.; Akudago, J.; Keith, D.; Palaniappan, M.

2011-12-01

The diversity of water resources endowments and the societal arrangements to use, manage, and govern water makes defining a single paradigm or lens through which to define, prioritize and evaluate interventions in the water sector particularly challenging. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) emerged as the dominant intervention paradigm for water sector interventions in the early 1990s. Since then, while many successful implementations of IWRM have been demonstrated at the local, basin, national and trans-national scales, IWRM has also been severely criticized by the global water community as "having a dubious record that has never been comprehensively analyzed", "curiously ambiguous", and "ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst". Does IWRM hold together as a coherent paradigm or is it a convenient buzzword to describe a diverse collection of water sector interventions? We analyzed 184 case study summaries of IWRM interventions on the Global Water Partnership (GWP) website. The case studies were assessed to find the nature, scale, objectives and outcomes of IWRM. The analysis does not suggest any coherence in IWRM as a paradigm - but does indicate distinct regional trends in IWRM. First, IWRM was done at very different scales in different regions. In Africa two-thirds of the IWRM interventions involved creating national or transnational organizations. In contrast, in Asia and South America, almost two-thirds were watershed, basin, or local body initiatives. Second, IWRM interventions involved very different types of activities in different regions. In Africa and Europe, IWRM entailed creation of policy documents, basin plans and institution building. In contrast, in Asia and Latin America the interventions were much more likely to entail new technology, infrastructure or watershed measures. In Australia, economic measures, new laws and enforcement mechanisms were more commonly used than anywhere else.

A global, 30-m resolution land-surface water body dataset for 2000

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Huang, C.; Song, D. X.; Song, X. P.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Inland surface water is essential to terrestrial ecosystems and human civilization. The distribution of surface water in space and its change over time are related to many agricultural, environmental and ecological issues, and are important factors that must be considered in human socioeconomic development. Accurate mapping of surface water is essential for both scientific research and policy-driven applications. Satellite-based remote sensing provides snapshots of Earth's surface and can be used as the main input for water mapping, especially in large areas. Global water areas have been mapped with coarse resolution remotely sensed data (e.g., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). However, most inland rivers and water bodies, as well as their changes, are too small to map at such coarse resolutions. Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) imagery has a 30m spatial resolution and provides decades of records (~40 years). Since 2008, the opening of the Landsat archive, coupled with relatively lower costs associated with computing and data storage, has made comprehensive study of the dynamic changes of surface water over large even global areas more feasible. Although Landsat images have been used for regional and even global water mapping, the method can hardly be automated due to the difficulties on distinguishing inland surface water with variant degrees of impurities and mixing of soil background with only Landsat data. The spectral similarities to other land cover types, e.g., shadow and glacier remnants, also cause misidentification. We have developed a probabilistic based automatic approach for mapping inland surface water bodies. Landsat surface reflectance in multiple bands, derived water indices, and data from other sources are integrated to maximize the ability of identifying water without human interference. The approach has been implemented with open-source libraries to facilitate processing large

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-01-01

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri F; Morrison, Adele K; Talley, Lynne D; Dufour, Carolina O; Gray, Alison R; Griffies, Stephen M; Mazloff, Matthew R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert

2017-08-02

Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60-90 years.Deep waters of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans upwell in the Southern Oceanbut the exact pathways are not fully characterized. Here the authors present a three dimensional view showing a spiralling southward path, with enhanced upwelling by eddy-transport at topographic hotspots.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Simple physics-based models of compensatory plant water uptake: concepts and eco-hydrological consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. J. Jarvis

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Many land surface schemes and simulation models of plant growth designed for practical use employ simple empirical sub-models of root water uptake that cannot adequately reflect the critical role water uptake from sparsely rooted deep subsoil plays in meeting atmospheric transpiration demand in water-limited environments, especially in the presence of shallow groundwater. A failure to account for this so-called "compensatory" water uptake may have serious consequences for both local and global modeling of water and energy fluxes, carbon balances and climate. Some purely empirical compensatory root water uptake models have been proposed, but they are of limited use in global modeling exercises since their parameters cannot be related to measurable soil and vegetation properties. A parsimonious physics-based model of uptake compensation has been developed that requires no more parameters than empirical approaches. This model is described and some aspects of its behavior are illustrated with the help of example simulations. These analyses demonstrate that hydraulic lift can be considered as an extreme form of compensation and that the degree of compensation is principally a function of soil capillarity and the ratio of total effective root length to potential transpiration. Thus, uptake compensation increases as root to leaf area ratios increase, since potential transpiration depends on leaf area. Results of "scenario" simulations for two case studies, one at the local scale (riparian vegetation growing above shallow water tables in seasonally dry or arid climates and one at a global scale (water balances across an aridity gradient in the continental USA, are presented to illustrate biases in model predictions that arise when water uptake compensation is neglected. In the first case, it is shown that only a compensated model can match the strong relationships between water table depth and leaf area and transpiration observed in riparian forest

Monthly land cover-specific evapotranspiration models derived from global eddy flux measurements and remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan Fang; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Asko Noormets; Jean-Christophe Domec; John King; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xudong Zhang; Guanghui Lin; Guangsheng Zhou; Jingfeng Xiao; Jiquan Chen

2015-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is arguably the most uncertain ecohydrologic variable for quantifying watershed water budgets. Although numerous ET and hydrological models exist, accurately predicting the effects of global change on water use and availability remains challenging because of model deficiency and/or a lack of input parameters. The objective of this study was to...

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Tang

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R² > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

Global nuclear material control model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

1996-01-01

The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

Watch: Current knowledge of the terrestrial Global Water Cycle"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harding, R.; Best, M.; Hagemann, S.; Kabat, P.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Warnaars, T.; Wiberg, D.; Weedon, G.P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.

2011-01-01

Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and

Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. M. Monge-Sanz

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM. It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts general circulation model (GCM. Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H2O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H2O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa. The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH4 climatology and H2O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH4 and H2O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m−2.

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

Science.gov (United States)

Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

2017-04-01

The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

Cesium, iodine and tritium in NW Pacific waters - a comparison of the Fukushima impact with global fallout

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Povinec, P. P.; Aoyama, M.; Biddulph, D.

2013-01-01

Radionuclide impact of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident on the distribution of radionuclides in seawater of the NW Pacific Ocean is compared with global fallout from atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons. Surface and water column samples collected during the Ka’imikai-o-Kanaloa ......Radionuclide impact of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident on the distribution of radionuclides in seawater of the NW Pacific Ocean is compared with global fallout from atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons. Surface and water column samples collected during the Ka......-derived radionuclides downward to the depth of 300m has already occurred. The observed 137Cs levels in surface waters and in the water column are compared with predictions obtained from the ocean general circulation model, which indicates that the Kuroshio Current acts as a southern boundary for the transport...... the coast, where all three radionuclides were analyzed, the Fukushima impact on the levels of these three radionuclides represents an increase above the global fallout background by factors of about 1000, 50 and 3, respectively. The water column data indicate that the transport of Fukushima...

The Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR): Integration of Stable Water Isotopes in Riverine Research and Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halder, J.; Terzer, S.; Wassenaar, L.; Araguas, L.; Aggarwal, P.

2015-01-01

Rivers play a crucial role in the global water cycle as watershed-integrating hydrological conduits for returning terrestrial precipitation, runoff, surface and groundwater, as well as melting snow and ice back to the world’s oceans. The IAEA Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR) is the coherent extension of the IAEA Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) and aims to fill the informational data gaps between rainfall and river discharge. Whereas the GNIP has been surveying the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes, and tritium composition in precipitation, the objective of GNIR is to accumulate and disseminate riverine isotope data. We introduce the new global database of riverine water isotopes and evaluate its current long-term data holdings with the objective to improve the application of water isotopes and to inform water managers and researchers. An evaluation of current GNIR database holdings confirmed that seasonal variations of the stable water isotope composition in rivers are closely coupled to precipitation and snow-melt water run-off on a global scale. Rivers could be clustered on the basis of seasonal variations in their isotope composition and latitude. Results showed furthermore, that there were periodic phases within each of these groupings and additional modelling exercises allowed a priori prediction of the seasonal variability as well as the isotopic composition of stable water isotopes in rivers. This predictive capacity will help to improve existing and new sampling strategies, help to validate and interpret riverine isotope data, and identify important catchment processes. Hence, the IAEA promulgates and supports longterm hydrological isotope observation networks and the application of isotope studies complementary with conventional hydrological, water quality, and ecological studies. (author)

Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Modeling the Energy-Water-Food Nexus: Where Do We Go From Here?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, N. A.

2015-12-01

Economic development, population growth, and the changing diets and lifestyles of a growing middle class are expected to lead to increasing demands for water, food, and energy in the future. Meanwhile, climate change may cause localized resource scarcity and exacerbate the supply challenges. Moreover, there is a growing awareness that the supply systems for water, food, and energy are inextricably linked and cannot be evaluated in independent silos. Rather, integrated approaches are needed that can identify the potential trade-offs and synergies among sectors, identify holistic solutions, and evaluate the impacts of socioeconomic and hydroclimatic change. Some initial efforts at modeling the energy-water-food nexus in an integrated fashion have been attempted, but they all suffer from limitations and much more research is needed. This study provides a review of the current state-of-the-art in modeling the energy-water-food nexus at both global and regional scales, identifies limitations associated with existing approaches, and proposes specific recommendations for improving nexus assessments. Some limitations of existing models include insufficient spatial resolution for assessing water constraints in the energy sector, inadequate representation of the linkages among sectors, limited assessment of the impacts of socioeconomic and hydroclimatic change, limited inclusion of water conveyance, simplistic downscaling of water and energy demands, and the lack of a consistent framework for global nexus assessment. In addition, research gaps are identified by graphically classifying existing nexus assessments according to their spatial resolution, coverage of nexus sectors and linkages, and suitability for assessing the main drivers of global change (e.g., development, urbanization, technology, and climate change). The final portion of the study proposes recommendations for addressing the research gaps and identifies tremendous opportunity for developing better models and

Global SWOT Data Assimilation of River Hydrodynamic Model; the Twin Simulation Test of CaMa-Flood

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeshima, D.; Yamazaki, D.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

CaMa-Flood is a global scale model for simulating hydrodynamics in large scale rivers. It can simulate river hydrodynamics such as river discharge, flooded area, water depth and so on by inputting water runoff derived from land surface model. Recently many improvements at parameters or terrestrial data are under process to enhance the reproducibility of true natural phenomena. However, there are still some errors between nature and simulated result due to uncertainties in each model. SWOT (Surface water and Ocean Topography) is a satellite, which is going to be launched in 2021, can measure open water surface elevation. SWOT observed data can be used to calibrate hydrodynamics model at river flow forecasting and is expected to improve model's accuracy. Combining observation data into model to calibrate is called data assimilation. In this research, we developed data-assimilated river flow simulation system in global scale, using CaMa-Flood as river hydrodynamics model and simulated SWOT as observation data. Generally at data assimilation, calibrating "model value" with "observation value" makes "assimilated value". However, the observed data of SWOT satellite will not be available until its launch in 2021. Instead, we simulated the SWOT observed data using CaMa-Flood. Putting "pure input" into CaMa-Flood produce "true water storage". Extracting actual daily swath of SWOT from "true water storage" made simulated observation. For "model value", we made "disturbed water storage" by putting "noise disturbed input" to CaMa-Flood. Since both "model value" and "observation value" are made by same model, we named this twin simulation. At twin simulation, simulated observation of "true water storage" is combined with "disturbed water storage" to make "assimilated value". As the data assimilation method, we used ensemble Kalman filter. If "assimilated value" is closer to "true water storage" than "disturbed water storage", the data assimilation can be marked effective. Also

Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

2015-07-01

The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

A global data set of soil hydraulic properties and sub-grid variability of soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves

Science.gov (United States)

Montzka, Carsten; Herbst, Michael; Weihermüller, Lutz; Verhoef, Anne; Vereecken, Harry

2017-07-01

Agroecosystem models, regional and global climate models, and numerical weather prediction models require adequate parameterization of soil hydraulic properties. These properties are fundamental for describing and predicting water and energy exchange processes at the transition zone between solid earth and atmosphere, and regulate evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff generation. Hydraulic parameters describing the soil water retention (WRC) and hydraulic conductivity (HCC) curves are typically derived from soil texture via pedotransfer functions (PTFs). Resampling of those parameters for specific model grids is typically performed by different aggregation approaches such a spatial averaging and the use of dominant textural properties or soil classes. These aggregation approaches introduce uncertainty, bias and parameter inconsistencies throughout spatial scales due to nonlinear relationships between hydraulic parameters and soil texture. Therefore, we present a method to scale hydraulic parameters to individual model grids and provide a global data set that overcomes the mentioned problems. The approach is based on Miller-Miller scaling in the relaxed form by Warrick, that fits the parameters of the WRC through all sub-grid WRCs to provide an effective parameterization for the grid cell at model resolution; at the same time it preserves the information of sub-grid variability of the water retention curve by deriving local scaling parameters. Based on the Mualem-van Genuchten approach we also derive the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity from the water retention functions, thereby assuming that the local parameters are also valid for this function. In addition, via the Warrick scaling parameter λ, information on global sub-grid scaling variance is given that enables modellers to improve dynamical downscaling of (regional) climate models or to perturb hydraulic parameters for model ensemble output generation. The present analysis is based on the ROSETTA PTF

Assimilation of Earth rotation parameters into a global ocean model (FESOM)

Science.gov (United States)

Androsov, A.; Schröter, J.; Brunnabend, S.; Saynisch, J.

2012-04-01

Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) are used to improve estimates of the ocean circulation and mass budget. GRACE data can be used for verification or for further improvements. The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is used to simulate weekly ocean circulation and mass variations. The FESOM model is a hydrostatic ocean circulation model with a fully non-linear free surface. It solves the hydrostatic primitive equations with volume (Boussinesq approximation) and mass (Greatbatch correction) conservation. Fresh water exchange with the atmosphere and land is modelled as mass flux. This flux is the weakest part of the mass budget as it is the difference of large and uncertain quantities: evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. All uncertainties included in these parameters are directly reflected in the model results. ERP help in closing the budget in a realistic manner. Our strategy is designed for testing parametric estimation on a weekly basis. First, Oceanographic Earth rotation parameters (OERP) are calculated by subtracting atmospheric and hydrologic estimates from observed ERP. They are compared to OERP derived from a global ocean circulation model. The difference can be inverted to diagnose a correction of the oceanic mass budget. Additionally mass variations measured by GRACE are used for verification. In a second step, the global mass correction parameter, derived by the inversion, is used to improve the fresh water budget of FESOM.

A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

Science.gov (United States)

Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

2017-04-01

Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Richard D.

1999-01-01

Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

A global central banker competency model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W. Brits

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

Impacts on quality-induced water scarcity: drivers of nitrogen-related water pollution transfer under globalization from 1995 to 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Liyang; Cai, Wenjia; Jiang, Yongkai; Wang, Can

2016-07-01

Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations’ imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations’ exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the ‘cap-and-trade’ and ‘boarder-tax-adjustment’ schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption.

Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia; Kumar, Sanjiv

2016-05-01

Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaichun Zhu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

The role of scarcity in global virtual water flows

OpenAIRE

Lenzen, Manfred; Bhaduri, Anik; Moran, Daniel; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Bekchanov, Maksud

2012-01-01

Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly draw on the rest of the world to alleviate the pressure on their domestic water resources. Our work builds on these studies, but fills three important gaps in the research on global virtual water trade. First, we note that in previous studies virtual w...

Global assessment of exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water based on a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bain, Robert; Cronk, Ryan; Hossain, Rifat; Bonjour, Sophie; Onda, Kyle; Wright, Jim; Yang, Hong; Slaymaker, Tom; Hunter, Paul; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie

2014-08-01

To estimate exposure to faecal contamination through drinking water as indicated by levels of Escherichia coli (E. coli) or thermotolerant coliform (TTC) in water sources. We estimated coverage of different types of drinking water source based on household surveys and censuses using multilevel modelling. Coverage data were combined with water quality studies that assessed E. coli or TTC including those identified by a systematic review (n = 345). Predictive models for the presence and level of contamination of drinking water sources were developed using random effects logistic regression and selected covariates. We assessed sensitivity of estimated exposure to study quality, indicator bacteria and separately considered nationally randomised surveys. We estimate that 1.8 billion people globally use a source of drinking water which suffers from faecal contamination, of these 1.1 billion drink water that is of at least 'moderate' risk (>10 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml). Data from nationally randomised studies suggest that 10% of improved sources may be 'high' risk, containing at least 100 E. coli or TTC per 100 ml. Drinking water is found to be more often contaminated in rural areas (41%, CI: 31%-51%) than in urban areas (12%, CI: 8-18%), and contamination is most prevalent in Africa (53%, CI: 42%-63%) and South-East Asia (35%, CI: 24%-45%). Estimates were not sensitive to the exclusion of low quality studies or restriction to studies reporting E. coli. Microbial contamination is widespread and affects all water source types, including piped supplies. Global burden of disease estimates may have substantially understated the disease burden associated with inadequate water services. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine and International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

Science.gov (United States)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

A theoretical model of water and trade

Science.gov (United States)

Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

2016-03-01

Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, Guannan

2017-01-01

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so as to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.

LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 2: Model evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Schaphoff, Sibyll; Forkel, Matthias; Müller, Christoph; Knauer, Jürgen; von Bloh, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Waha, Katharina

2018-04-01

The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

How well will the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission observe global reservoirs?

Science.gov (United States)

Solander, Kurt C.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

2016-03-01

Accurate observations of global reservoir storage are critical to understand the availability of managed water resources. By enabling estimates of surface water area and height for reservoir sizes exceeding 250 m2 at a maximum repeat orbit of up to 21 days, the NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission (anticipated launch date 2020) is expected to greatly improve upon existing reservoir monitoring capabilities. It is thus essential that spatial and temporal measurement uncertainty for water bodies is known a priori to maximize the utility of SWOT observations as the data are acquired. In this study, we evaluate SWOT reservoir observations using a three-pronged approach that assesses temporal aliasing, errors due to specific reservoir spatial properties, and SWOT performance over actual reservoirs using a combination of in situ and simulated reservoir observations from the SWOTsim instrument simulator. Results indicate temporal errors to be less than 5% for the smallest reservoir sizes (100 km2). Surface area and height errors were found to be minimal (area SWOT, this study will be have important implications for future applications of SWOT reservoir measurements in global monitoring systems and models.

Global model structures for ∗-modules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Böhme, Benjamin

2018-01-01

We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Getting water right: A case study in water yield modelling based on precipitation data.

Science.gov (United States)

Pessacg, Natalia; Flaherty, Silvia; Brandizi, Laura; Solman, Silvina; Pascual, Miguel

2015-12-15

Water yield is a key ecosystem service in river basins and especially in dry regions around the World. In this study we carry out a modelling analysis of water yields in the Chubut River basin, located in one of the driest districts of Patagonia, Argentina. We focus on the uncertainty around precipitation data, a driver of paramount importance for water yield. The objectives of this study are to: i) explore the spatial and numeric differences among six widely used global precipitation datasets for this region, ii) test them against data from independent ground stations, and iii) explore the effects of precipitation data uncertainty on simulations of water yield. The simulations were performed using the ecosystem services model InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) with each of the six different precipitation datasets as input. Our results show marked differences among datasets for the Chubut watershed region, both in the magnitude of precipitations and their spatial arrangement. Five of the precipitation databases overestimate the precipitation over the basin by 50% or more, particularly over the more humid western range. Meanwhile, the remaining dataset (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - TRMM), based on satellite measurements, adjusts well to the observed rainfall in different stations throughout the watershed and provides a better representation of the precipitation gradient characteristic of the rain shadow of the Andes. The observed differences among datasets in the representation of the rainfall gradient translate into large differences in water yield simulations. Errors in precipitation of +30% (-30%) amplify to water yield errors ranging from 50 to 150% (-45 to -60%) in some sub-basins. These results highlight the importance of assessing uncertainties in main input data when quantifying and mapping ecosystem services with biophysical models and cautions about the undisputed use of global environmental datasets. Copyright �

The Global Enery and Water Cycle Experiment Science Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Chahine, M. T.

1997-01-01

The distribution of water in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth is the most influential factor regulating our environment, not only because water is essential for life but also because through phase transitions it is the main energy source that control clouds and radiation and drives the global circulation of the atmosphere.

Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

Development of an advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model aimed at clarifying the missing role of inland water in the global biogeochemical cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayama, Tadanobu

2017-04-01

Recent research showed that inland water including rivers, lakes, and groundwater may play some role in carbon cycling, although its contribution has remained uncertain due to limited amount of reliable data available. In this study, the author developed an advanced model coupling eco-hydrology and biogeochemical cycle (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC). This new model incorporates complex coupling of hydrologic-carbon cycle in terrestrial-aquatic linkages and interplay between inorganic and organic carbon during the whole process of carbon cycling. The model could simulate both horizontal transports (export from land to inland water 2.01 ± 1.98 Pg C/yr and transported to ocean 1.13 ± 0.50 Pg C/yr) and vertical fluxes (degassing 0.79 ± 0.38 Pg C/yr, and sediment storage 0.20 ± 0.09 Pg C/yr) in major rivers in good agreement with previous researches, which was an improved estimate of carbon flux from previous studies. The model results also showed global net land flux simulated by NICE-BGC (-1.05 ± 0.62 Pg C/yr) decreased carbon sink a little in comparison with revised Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (-1.79 ± 0.64 Pg C/yr) and previous materials (-2.8 to -1.4 Pg C/yr). This is attributable to CO2 evasion and lateral carbon transport explicitly included in the model, and the result suggests that most previous researches have generally overestimated the accumulation of terrestrial carbon and underestimated the potential for lateral transport. The results further implied difference between inverse techniques and budget estimates suggested can be explained to some extent by a net source from inland water. NICE-BGC would play an important role in reevaluation of greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, quantification of hot spots, and bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches to global carbon budget.

Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Bodegom, P. V.

2015-12-01

Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

On coupling global biome models with climate models

OpenAIRE

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

Identification of water quality degradation hotspots in developing countries by applying large scale water quality modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Malsy, Marcus; Reder, Klara; Flörke, Martina

2014-05-01

Decreasing water quality is one of the main global issues which poses risks to food security, economy, and public health and is consequently crucial for ensuring environmental sustainability. During the last decades access to clean drinking water increased, but 2.5 billion people still do not have access to basic sanitation, especially in Africa and parts of Asia. In this context not only connection to sewage system is of high importance, but also treatment, as an increasing connection rate will lead to higher loadings and therefore higher pressure on water resources. Furthermore, poor people in developing countries use local surface waters for daily activities, e.g. bathing and washing. It is thus clear that water utilization and water sewerage are indispensable connected. In this study, large scale water quality modelling is used to point out hotspots of water pollution to get an insight on potential environmental impacts, in particular, in regions with a low observation density and data gaps in measured water quality parameters. We applied the global water quality model WorldQual to calculate biological oxygen demand (BOD) loadings from point and diffuse sources, as well as in-stream concentrations. Regional focus in this study is on developing countries i.e. Africa, Asia, and South America, as they are most affected by water pollution. Hereby, model runs were conducted for the year 2010 to draw a picture of recent status of surface waters quality and to figure out hotspots and main causes of pollution. First results show that hotspots mainly occur in highly agglomerated regions where population density is high. Large urban areas are initially loading hotspots and pollution prevention and control become increasingly important as point sources are subject to connection rates and treatment levels. Furthermore, river discharge plays a crucial role due to dilution potential, especially in terms of seasonal variability. Highly varying shares of BOD sources across

Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Deflorio, M. J.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

Seasonal and global behavior of water vapor in the Mars atmosphere: Complete global results of the Viking atmospheric water detector experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakosky, B.M.; Farmer, C.B.

1982-01-01

The water vapor content of the Mars atmosphere was measured from the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) for a period of more than 1 Martian year, from June 1976 through April 1979. Results are presented in the form of global maps of column abundance for 24 periods throughout each Mars year. The data reduction incorporates spatial and seasonal variations in surface pressure and supplements earlier published versions of less complete data

The Global Dimension of Water Governance: Why the River Basin Approach Is No Longer Sufficient and Why Cooperative Action at Global Level Is Needed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arjen Y. Hoekstra

2010-12-01

Full Text Available When water problems extend beyond the borders of local communities, the river basin is generally seen as the most appropriate unit for analysis, planning, and institutional arrangements. In this paper it is argued that addressing water problems at the river basin level is not always sufficient. Many of today’s seemingly local water issues carry a (subcontinental or even global dimension, which urges for a governance approach that comprises institutional arrangements at a level beyond that of the river basin. This paper examines a number of arguments for the thesis that good water governance requires a global approach complementary to the river basin approach. Subsequently, it identifies four major issues to be addressed at global scale: Efficiency, equity, sustainability and security of water supply in a globalised world. Finally, the paper raises the question of what kind of institutional arrangements could be developed to cope with the global dimension of water issues. A few possible directions are explored, ranging from an international protocol on full-cost water pricing and a water label for water-intensive products to the implementation of water footprint quotas and the water-neutral concept.