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Sample records for modelling forsmark stage

  1. Geology Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark - stage 2.2

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    Stephens, Michael B. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden); Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul [Golder Associates Inc (United States); Simeonov, Assen [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Isaksson, Hans [GeoVista AB, Luleaa (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-10-15

    The geological work during stage 2.2 has involved the development of deterministic models for rock domains (RFM) and deformation zones (ZFM), the identification and deterministic modelling of fracture domains (FFM) inside the candidate volume, i.e. the parts of rock domains that are not affected by deformation zones, and the development of statistical models for fractures and minor deformation zones (geological discrete fracture network modelling or geological DFN modelling). The geological DFN model addresses brittle structures at a scale of less than 1 km, which is the lower cut-off in the deterministic modelling of deformation zones. In order to take account of variability in data resolution, deterministic models for rock domains and deformation zones are presented in both regional and local model volumes, while the geological DFN model is valid within specific fracture domains inside the north-western part of the candidate volume, including the target volume. The geological modelling work has evaluated and made use of: A revised bedrock geological map at the ground surface. Geological and geophysical data from 21 cored boreholes and 33 percussion boreholes. Detailed mapping of fractures and rock units along nine excavations or large surface outcrops. Data bearing on the characterisation (including kinematics) of deformation zones. Complementary geochronological and other rock and fracture analytical data. Lineaments identified on the basis of airborne and high-resolution ground magnetic data. A reprocessing of both surface and borehole reflection seismic data. Seismic refraction data. The outputs of the deterministic modelling work are geometric models in RVS format and detailed property tables for rock domains and deformation zones, and a description of fracture domains. The outputs of the geological DFN modelling process are recommended parameters or statistical distributions that describe fracture set orientations, radius sizes, volumetric intensities

  2. Geology - Background complementary studies. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

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    Stephens, Michael B. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden); Skagius, Kristina [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] (eds.)

    2007-09-15

    During Forsmark model stage 2.2, seven complementary geophysical and geological studies were initiated by the geological modelling team, in direct connection with and as a background support to the deterministic modelling of deformation zones. One of these studies involved a field control on the character of two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trends inside the target volume. The interpretation of these lineaments formed one of the late deliveries to SKB that took place after the data freeze for model stage 2.2 and during the initial stage of the modelling work. Six studies involved a revised processing and analysis of reflection seismic, refraction seismic and selected oriented borehole radar data, all of which had been presented earlier in connection with the site investigation programme. A prime aim of all these studies was to provide a better understanding of the geological significance of indirect geophysical data to the geological modelling team. Such essential interpretative work was lacking in the material acquired in connection with the site investigation programme. The results of these background complementary studies are published together in this report. The titles and authors of the seven background complementary studies are presented below. Summaries of the results of each study, with a focus on the implications for the geological modelling of deformation zones, are presented in the master geological report, SKB-R--07-45. The sections in the master report, where reference is made to each background complementary study and where the summaries are placed, are also provided. The individual reports are listed in the order that they are referred to in the master geological report and as they appear in this report. 1. Scan line fracture mapping and magnetic susceptibility measurements across two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trend, Forsmark. Jesper Petersson, Ulf B. Andersson and Johan Berglund. 2. Integrated interpretation of surface and

  3. Rock Mechanics Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark stage 2.2

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    Glamheden, Rune; Fredriksson, Anders (Golder Associates AB (SE)); Roeshoff, Kennert; Karlsson, Johan (Berg Bygg Konsult AB (SE)); Hakami, Hossein (Itasca Geomekanik AB (SE)); Christiansson, Rolf (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE))

    2007-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation of a site is an integrated work carried out by several disciplines including geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry and surface systems. This report presents the rock mechanics model of the Forsmark site up to stage 2.2. The scope of work has included compilation and analysis of primary data of intact rock and fractures, estimation of the rock mass mechanical properties and estimation of the in situ state of stress at the Forsmark site. The laboratory results on intact rock and fractures in the target volume demonstrate a good quality rock mass that is strong, stiff and relatively homogeneous. The homogeneity is also supported by the lithological and the hydrogeological models. The properties of the rock mass have been initially estimated by two separate modelling approaches, one empirical and one theoretical. An overall final estimate of the rock mass properties were achieved by integrating the results from the two models via a process termed 'Harmonization'. Both the tensile tests, carried out perpendicular and parallel to the foliation, and the theoretical analyses of the rock mass properties in directions parallel and perpendicular to the major principal stress, result in parameter values almost independent of direction. This indicates that the rock mass in the target volume is isotropic. The rock mass quality in the target volume appears to be of high and uniform quality. Those portions with reduced rock mass quality that do exist are mainly related to sections with increased fracture frequency. Such sections are associated with deformation zones according to the geological description. The results of adjacent rock domains and fracture domains of the target

  4. Hydrogeological conceptual model development and numerical modelling using CONNECTFLOW, Forsmark modelling stage 2.3

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    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Hartley, Lee; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David (Serco TAP (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-05-15

    Three versions of a site descriptive model (SDM) have been completed for the Forsmark area. Version 0 established the state of knowledge prior to the start of the site investigation programme. Version 1.1 was essentially a training exercise and was completed during 2004. Version 1.2 was a preliminary site description and concluded the initial site investigation work (ISI) in June 2005. Three modelling stages are planned for the complete site investigation work (CSI). These are labelled stage 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, respectively. An important component of each of these stages is to address and continuously try to resolve discipline-specific uncertainties of importance for repository engineering and safety assessment. Stage 2.1 included an updated geological model for Forsmark and aimed to provide a feedback from the modelling working group to the site investigation team to enable completion of the site investigation work. Stage 2.2 described the conceptual understanding and the numerical modelling of the bedrock hydrogeology in the Forsmark area based on data freeze 2.2. The present report describes the modelling based on data freeze 2.3, which is the final data freeze in Forsmark. In comparison, data freeze 2.3 is considerably smaller than data freeze 2.2. Therefore, stage 2.3 deals primarily with model confirmation and uncertainty analysis, e.g. verification of important hypotheses made in stage 2.2 and the role of parameter uncertainty in the numerical modelling. On the whole, the work reported here constitutes an addendum to the work reported in stage 2.2. Two changes were made to the CONNECTFLOW code in stage 2.3. These serve to: 1) improve the representation of the hydraulic properties of the regolith, and 2) improve the conditioning of transmissivity of the deformation zones against single-hole hydraulic tests. The changes to the modelling of the regolith were made to improve the consistency with models made with the MIKE SHE code, which involved the introduction

  5. Thermal properties. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark - stage 2.2

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    Back, Paer-Erik; Wrafter, John; Sundberg, Jan [Geo Innova AB (Sweden); Rosen, L ars [Sweco Viak AB (Sweden)

    2007-09-15

    The lithological data acquired from boreholes and mapping of the rock surface need to be reclassified into thermal rock classes, TRCs. The main reason is to simplify the simulations. The lithological data are used to construct models of the transition between different TRCs, thus describing the spatial statistical structure of each TRC. The result is a set of transition probability models that are used in the simulation of TRCs. The intermediate result of this first stochastic simulation is a number of realisations of the geology, each one equally probable. Based on the thermal data, a spatial statistical thermal model is constructed for each TRC. It consists of a statistical distribution and a variogram for each TRC. These are used in the stochastic simulation of thermal conductivity and the result is a number of equally probable realisations of thermal conductivity for the domain. In the next step, the realisations of TRCs (lithology) and thermal conductivity are merged, i.e. each realisation of geology is filled with simulated thermal conductivity values. The result is a set of realisations of thermal conductivity that considers both the difference in thermal properties between different TRCs, and the variability within each TRC. If the result is desired in a scale different from the simulation scale, i.e. the canister scale, upscaling of the realisations can be performed. The result is a set of equally probable realisations of thermal properties. The presented methodology was applied to rock domain RFM029 and RFM045. The main results are sets of realisations of thermal properties that can be used for further processing, most importantly for statistical analysis and numerical temperature simulations for the design of repository layout (distances between deposition holes). The main conclusions of the thermal modelling are: The choice of scale has a profound influence on the distribution of thermal conductivity values. The variance decreases and the lower tail

  6. Hydrogeological characterisation and modelling of deformation zones and fracture domains, Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

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    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (SE)); Leven, Jakob (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE)); Hartley, Lee; Jackson, Peter; Joyce, Steve; Roberts, David; Swift, Ben (Serco Assurance, Harwell (GB))

    2007-09-15

    The work reported here collates the structural-hydraulic information gathered in 21 cored boreholes and 32 percussion-drilled boreholes belonging to Forsmark site description, modelling stage 2.2. The analyses carried out provide the hydrogeological input descriptions of the bedrock in Forsmark needed by the end users Repository Engineering, Safety Assessment and Environmental Impact Assessment; that is, hydraulic properties of deformation zones and fracture domains. The same information is also needed for constructing 3D groundwater flow models of the Forsmark site and surrounding area. The analyses carried out render the following conceptual model regarding the observed heterogeneity in deformation zone transmissivity: We find the geological division of the deterministically modelled deformation zones into eight categories (sets) useful from a hydrogeological point of view. Seven of the eight categories are steeply dipping, WNW, NW, NNW, NNE, NE, ENE and EW, and on is gently dipping, G. All deformation zones, regardless of orientation (strike and dip), are subjected to a substantial decrease in transmissivity with depth. The data gathered suggest a contrast of c. 20,000 times for the uppermost one kilometre of bedrock, i.e. more than four orders of magnitude. The hydraulic properties below this depth are not investigated. The lateral heterogeneity is also substantial but more irregular in its appearance. For instance, for a given elevation and deformation zone category (orientation), the spatial variability in transmissivity within a particular deformation zone appears to be as large as the variability between all deformation zones. This suggests that the lateral correlation length is shorter than the shortest distance between two adjacent observation points and shorter than the category spacing. The observation that the mean transmissivity of the gently-dipping deformation zones is c. one to two orders of magnitude greater than the mean transmissivities of all

  7. Statistical geological discrete fracture network model. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

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    Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul [Golder Associates Inc (United States); Simeonov, Assen [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-11-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is performing site characterization at two different locations, Forsmark and Laxemar, in order to locate a site for a final geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel. The program is built upon the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDMs) at specific timed data freezes. Each SDM is formed from discipline-specific reports from across the scientific spectrum. This report describes the methods, analyses, and conclusions of the geological modeling team with respect to a geological and statistical model of fractures and minor deformation zones (henceforth referred to as the geological DFN), version 2.2, at the Forsmark site. The geological DFN builds upon the work of other geological modelers, including the deformation zone (DZ), rock domain (RD), and fracture domain (FD) models. The geological DFN is a statistical model for stochastically simulating rock fractures and minor deformation zones as a scale of less than 1,000 m (the lower cut-off of the DZ models). The geological DFN is valid within four specific fracture domains inside the local model region, and encompassing the candidate volume at Forsmark: FFM01, FFM02, FFM03, and FFM06. The models are build using data from detailed surface outcrop maps and the cored borehole record at Forsmark. The conceptual model for the Forsmark 2.2 geological revolves around the concept of orientation sets; for each fracture domain, other model parameters such as size and intensity are tied to the orientation sets. Two classes of orientation sets were described; Global sets, which are encountered everywhere in the model region, and Local sets, which represent highly localized stress environments. Orientation sets were described in terms of their general cardinal direction (NE, NW, etc). Two alternatives are presented for fracture size modeling: - the tectonic continuum approach (TCM, TCMF) described by coupled size-intensity scaling following power law distributions

  8. Thermal properties Forsmark. Modelling stage 2.3 Complementary analysis and verification of the thermal bedrock model, stage 2.

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    Sundberg, Jan; Wrafter, John; Laendell, Maerta (Geo Innova AB (Sweden)); Back, Paer-Erik; Rosen, Lars (Sweco AB (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    This report present the results of thermal modelling work for the Forsmark area carried out during modelling stage 2.3. The work complements the main modelling efforts carried out during modelling stage 2.2. A revised spatial statistical description of the rock mass thermal conductivity for rock domain RFM045 is the main result of this work. Thermal modelling of domain RFM045 in Forsmark model stage 2.2 gave lower tail percentiles of thermal conductivity that were considered to be conservatively low due to the way amphibolite, the rock type with the lowest thermal conductivity, was modelled. New and previously available borehole data are used as the basis for revised stochastic geological simulations of domain RFM045. By defining two distinct thermal subdomains, these simulations have succeeded in capturing more of the lithological heterogeneity present. The resulting thermal model for rock domain RFM045 is, therefore, considered to be more realistic and reliable than that presented in model stage 2.2. The main conclusions of modelling efforts in model stage 2.3 are: - Thermal modelling indicates a mean thermal conductivity for domain RFM045 at the 5 m scale of 3.56 W/(mK). This is slightly higher than the value of 3.49 W/(mK) derived in model stage 2.2. - The variance decreases and the lower tail percentiles increase as the scale of observation increases from 1 to 5 m. Best estimates of the 0.1 percentile of thermal conductivity for domain RFM045 are 2.24 W/(mK) for the 1 m scale and 2.36 W/(mK) for the 5 m scale. This can be compared with corresponding values for domain RFM029 of 2.30 W/(mK) for the 1 m scale and 2.87 W/(mK)for the 5 m scale. - The reason for the pronounced lower tail in the thermal conductivity distribution for domain RFM045 is the presence of large bodies of the low-conductive amphibolite. - The modelling results for domain RFM029 presented in model stage 2.2 are still applicable. - As temperature increases, the thermal conductivity decreases

  9. Mechanical modelling of the Singoe deformation zone. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark stage 2.1

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    Glamheden, Rune; Maersk Hansen, Lars; Fredriksson, Anders; Bergkvist, Lars; Markstroem, Ingemar; Elfstroem, Mats [Golder Associates AB (Sweden)

    2007-02-15

    This project aims at demonstrating the theoretical approach developed by SKB for determination of mechanical properties of large deformation zones, in particular the Singoe deformation zone. Up to now, only bedrock and minor deformation zones have been characterized by means of this methodology, which has been modified for this project. The Singoe deformation zone is taken as a reference object to get a more comprehensive picture of the structure, which could be incorporated in a future version of the SDM of Forsmark. Furthermore, the Singoe Zone has been chosen because of available data from four tunnels. Scope of work has included compilation and analysis of geological information from site investigations and documentation of existing tunnels. Results have been analyzed and demonstrated by means of RVS-visualization. Numerical modelling has been used to obtain mechanical properties. Numerical modelling has also been carried out in order to verify the results by comparison of calculated and measured deformations. Compilation of various structures in the four tunnels coincides largely with a magnetic anomaly and also with the estimated width. Based on the study it is clear that the Singoe deformation zone has a heterogeneous nature. The number of fracture zones associated with the deformation zone varies on either side of the zone, as does the transition zone between host rock and the Singoe zone. The overall impression from the study is that the results demonstrate that the methodology used for simulating of equivalent mechanical properties is an applicable and adequate method, also in case of large deformation zones. Typical rock mechanical parameters of the Singoe deformations that can be used in the regional stress model considering the zone to be a single fracture are: 200 MPa/m in normal stiffness, 10-15 MPa/m in shear stiffness, 0.4 MPa in cohesion and 31.5 degrees in friction angle.

  10. Bedrock hydrogeology Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling, SDM-Site Forsmark

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    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has conducted site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for spent nuclear fuel according to the KBS-3 concept. Site characterisation should provide all data required for an integrated evaluation of the suitability of the investigated site and an important component in the characterisation work is the development of a hydrogeological model. The hydrogeological model is used by repository engineering to design the underground facility and to develop a repository layout adapted to the site. It also provides input to the safety assessment. Another important use of the hydrogeological model is in the environmental impact assessment. This report presents the understanding of the hydrogeological conditions of the bedrock at Forsmark reached following the completion of the surface-based investigations and provides a summary of the bedrock hydrogeological model and the underlying data supporting its development. It constitutes the main reference on bedrock hydrogeology for the site descriptive model concluding the surface-based investigations at Forsmark, SDM-site, and is intended to describe the hydraulic properties and hydrogeological conditions of the bedrock at the site and to give the information essential for demonstrating understanding

  11. Numerical studies on spatial variation of the in situ stress field at Forsmark - a further step. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark - stage 2.1

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    Hakami, Hossein [Itasca Geomekanik AB, Solna (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The present work is an investigation into the depiction of a spatial distribution of the in situ stresses at the Forsmark candidate site. The methodology is based on numerical simulations of the pre-occurrences of perturbation of the stress field, produced by the deformations/displacements that rock mass/major fracture zones undergo. The distinct element program DEC, was used for the purpose. Forsmark area is dominated mainly by the Forsmark and the Singoe faults but also by a number of major fracture zones. Almost all these structures, not only that they are reported to dip vertically, but they more or less run sub-parallel with the inferred overall orientation of the major principal stress, s1. These zones, as a result, cause a fairly limited perturbation in the state of in situ stress at the site. At a diminished scale, however, fracture zones of a lesser extent - which dip obliquely and run at an angle in relation to the s1 orientation - produce a significant perturbation of the state of stress. This work also included two preliminary investigations on: - Assessing the remote orientation of the major principal stress. This was done by looking at the crustal shortening, which characterizes in part the past tectonic activities of the Fennoscandian shield. - Looking for the mechanically viable explanations for the formation of joints sub-parallel with ground surface within the uppermost section of the rock mass.

  12. Bedrock geology Forsmark. Modelling stage 2.3. Description of the bedrock geological map at the ground surface

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    Stephens, Michael B.; Bergman, Torbjoern (Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)); Isaksson, Hans (GeoVista AB, Luleaa (Sweden)); Petersson, Jesper (SwedPower AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    A description of the bedrock geological map of the ground surface at the Forsmark site is presented here. This map is essentially a 2D model for the distribution of different types of rock unit on this surface. Besides showing the distribution of these rock units, the bedrock geological map also displays the distribution of some deformation zones that intersect the ground surface. It also presents information bearing on the position and form of outcrops, the location and projection of boreholes drilled during the site investigation programme, subordinate rock types, the occurrence of abandoned mines or exploration prospects, measurements of ductile structures in outcrops, inferred form lines, key minerals, and the occurrence of mylonite and cataclastic rock. Bedrock data from outcrops and excavations, airborne and ground magnetic data and information from the uppermost part of boreholes have all been used in the construction of the geological map. The description has also made use of complementary analytical data bearing on the composition and age of the rocks as well gamma-ray spectrometry and gravity data. Uncertainty in the position of the boundaries between rock units over the mapped area are addressed in a qualitative manner. Four model versions of the bedrock geological map have been delivered to SKB's GIS database (bedrock geological map, Forsmark, versions 1.1, 1.2, 2.2 and 2.3) at different times during the site investigation programme. The Forsmark area is situated along the coast of the Baltic Sea in northern Uppland, Sweden, in a region where the overall level of ductile strain in the bedrock is high. This high-strain region extends several tens of kilometres across the WNW-ENE to NW-SE strike of the rocks in this part of the Fennoscandian Shield. At Forsmark, the coastal region is composed partly of high-strain belts, which formed under amphibolite-facies metamorphic conditions, and partly of tectonic lenses, where the bedrock is also affected by

  13. Surface system Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

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    Lindborg, Tobias (ed.)

    2008-12-15

    SKB has undertaken site characterization of two different areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, in order to find a suitable location for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report focuses on the site descriptive modelling of the surface system at Forsmark. The characterization of the surface system at the site was primarily made by identifying and describing important properties in different parts of the surface system, properties concerning e.g. hydrology and climate, Quaternary deposits and soils, hydrochemistry, vegetation, ecosystem functions, but also current and historical land use. The report presents available input data, methodology for data evaluation and modelling, and resulting models for each of the different disciplines. Results from the modelling of the surface system are also integrated with results from modelling of the deep bedrock system. The Forsmark site is located within the municipality of Oesthammar, about 120 km north of Stockholm. The investigated area is located along the shoreline of Oeregrundsgrepen, a funnel-shaped bay of the Baltic Sea. The area is characterized by small-scale topographic variations and is almost entirely located at altitudes lower than 20 metres above sea level. The Quaternary deposits in the area are dominated by till, characterized by a rich content of calcite which was transported by the glacier ice to the area from the sedimentary bedrock of Gaevlebukten about 100 km north of Forsmark. As a result, the surface waters and shallow groundwater at Forsmark are characterized by high pH values and high concentrations of certain major constituents, especially calcium and bicarbonate. The annual precipitation and runoff are 560 and 150 mm, respectively. The lakes are small and shallow, with mean and maximum depths ranging from approximately 0.1 to 1 m and 0.4 to 2 m. Sea water flows into the most low-lying lakes during events giving rise to very high sea levels. Wetlands are frequent and cover 25 to 35

  14. Surface system Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

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    Lindborg, Tobias (ed.)

    2008-12-15

    SKB has undertaken site characterization of two different areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, in order to find a suitable location for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report focuses on the site descriptive modelling of the surface system at Forsmark. The characterization of the surface system at the site was primarily made by identifying and describing important properties in different parts of the surface system, properties concerning e.g. hydrology and climate, Quaternary deposits and soils, hydrochemistry, vegetation, ecosystem functions, but also current and historical land use. The report presents available input data, methodology for data evaluation and modelling, and resulting models for each of the different disciplines. Results from the modelling of the surface system are also integrated with results from modelling of the deep bedrock system. The Forsmark site is located within the municipality of Oesthammar, about 120 km north of Stockholm. The investigated area is located along the shoreline of Oeregrundsgrepen, a funnel-shaped bay of the Baltic Sea. The area is characterized by small-scale topographic variations and is almost entirely located at altitudes lower than 20 metres above sea level. The Quaternary deposits in the area are dominated by till, characterized by a rich content of calcite which was transported by the glacier ice to the area from the sedimentary bedrock of Gaevlebukten about 100 km north of Forsmark. As a result, the surface waters and shallow groundwater at Forsmark are characterized by high pH values and high concentrations of certain major constituents, especially calcium and bicarbonate. The annual precipitation and runoff are 560 and 150 mm, respectively. The lakes are small and shallow, with mean and maximum depths ranging from approximately 0.1 to 1 m and 0.4 to 2 m. Sea water flows into the most low-lying lakes during events giving rise to very high sea levels. Wetlands are frequent and cover 25 to 35

  15. Bedrock geology Forsmark. Modelling stage 2.3. Implications for and verification of the deterministic geological models based on complementary data

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    Stephens, Michael B. (Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)); Simeonov, Assen (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Isaksson, Hans (GeoVista AB, Luleaa (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is in the process of completing site descriptive modelling at two locations in Sweden, with the objective to site a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. At Forsmark, the results of the stage 2.2 geological modelling formed the input for downstream users. Since complementary ground and borehole geological and geophysical data, acquired after model stage 2.2, were not planned to be included in the deterministic rock domain, fracture domain and deformation zone models supplied to the users, it was deemed necessary to evaluate the implications of these stage 2.3 data for the stage 2.2 deterministic geological models and, if possible, to make use of these data to verify the models. This report presents the results of the analysis of the complementary stage 2.3 geological and geophysical data. Model verification from borehole data has been implemented in the form of a prediction-outcome test. The stage 2.3 geological and geophysical data at Forsmark mostly provide information on the bedrock outside the target volume. Additional high-resolution ground magnetic data and the data from the boreholes KFM02B, KFM11A, KFM12A and HFM33 to HFM37 can be included in this category. Other data complement older information of identical character, both inside and outside this volume. These include the character and kinematics of deformation zones and fracture mineralogy. In general terms, it can be stated that all these new data either confirm the geological modelling work completed during stage 2.2 or are in good agreement with the data that were used in this work. In particular, although the new high-resolution ground magnetic data modify slightly the position and trace length of some stage 2.2 deformation zones at the ground surface, no new or modified deformation zones with a trace length longer than 3,000 m at the ground surface have emerged. It is also apparent that the revision of fracture orientation data

  16. Updated strategy and test of new concepts for groundwater flow modelling in Forsmark in preparation of site descriptive modelling stage 2.2

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    Follin, Sven [SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden); Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB (Sweden); Leven, Jakob [Geosigma AB (Sweden); Hartley, Lee; Holton, David; McCarthy, Rachel; Roberts, David [Serco Assurance (United Kingdom)

    2007-01-15

    As part of the preliminary Site Descriptive Modelling (SDM version 1.2) for the Initial Site Investigation (ISI) stage at Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar, a methodology was developed for constructing hydrogeological models of the crystalline bedrock. The methodology achieved reasonable success given the restricted amounts and types of data available at the time. Notwithstanding, several issues of concern have surfaced following the reviews of the preliminary site descriptions of the three sites. Possible solutions to parts of the problems have been discussed internally for a longer time and an integrated view and strategy forward has been formulated. The 'new strategy' is not a complete shift in methodology, however, but a refocusing on and clarification of the key aspects that the hydrogeological SDM needs to accomplish. In broad terms the basic principle of the 'new strategy' suggested is to develop an overall conceptual model that first establishes the major flowing deformation zones, and then gradually approaches determination of the hydraulic properties of the bedrock outside these zones in the potential repository volume. On each scale, the focus of the description should be on features/structures of significance on that scale. Clearly, a detailed (although statistical) description of the repository and canister deposition hole scale is the end goal, but this approach (which also is more the traditional approach in hydrogeology) is judged to provide a much better motivated overall geometrical description. Furthermore, the 'new strategy' puts more emphasis on field testing (e.g. interference tests) and data analyses and less on numerical simulation and calibration. That is, before extensive (and costly) simulations and model calibrations are made it needs to be clearly understood what could be the potential gains of carrying them out. This report presents the conceptual model development for Forsmark in preparation of the site

  17. Bedrock hydrogeochemistry Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

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    Laaksoharju, Marcus (Geopoint AB, Sollentuna (Sweden)); Smellie, John (Conterra AB, Partille (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica, Graabo (Sweden)); Gimeno, Maria (Univ. of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta (Microbial Analytics, Goeteborg (Sweden)); Molinero, Jorge (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain)); Waber, Nick (Univ. of Bern, Bern (Switzerland))

    2008-12-15

    The overall objectives of the hydrogeochemical site description for Forsmark are to establish a detailed understanding of the hydrogeochemical conditions at the site, and to use this understanding to develop models that address the needs identified by the safety assessment groups during the site investigation phase. Issues of concern to safety assessment are radionuclide transport and technical barrier behaviour, both of which are dependent on the chemistry of groundwater and porewater and their evolution with time. The specific aims of the hydrogeochemical work were: To document the hydrogeochemistry at the Forsmark site with focus on the development of conceptual models to describe and visualise the site. To provide relevant parameter values to be used for safety assessment calculations. To provide the hydrogeochemical basis for the modelling work by other teams, in particular hydrogeology. To take account of the feedback from the SR-Can safety assessment work that bears relevance to the hydrogeochemical modelling work. The work has involved the development of descriptive and mathematical models for groundwaters in relation to rock domains, fracture domains and deformation zones. In this report, the groundwaters have been interpreted in relation to their origin, evolution and composition, which require close integration with geological, climatological and hydrogeological information. Past climate changes are one of the major driving forces for long-term hydrogeochemical changes (hundreds to thousands of years) and are, therefore, of fundamental importance for understanding the palaeohydrogeological, palaeohydrogeochemical and present evolution of groundwater in the Fennoscandian crystalline bedrock. In contrast, redox buffer capacity of the bedrock will minimise the effects on changes in alkalinity and redox at repository depths, therefore limiting the variations in pH and Eh significantly, regardless of major changes in groundwater composition. There is

  18. Site descriptive modelling Forsmark, stage 2.2. A fracture domain concept as a basis for the statistical modelling of fractures and minor deformation zones, and interdisciplinary coordination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olofsson, Isabelle; Simeonov, Assen [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Manageme nt Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Stephens, Michael [Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU), U ppsala (Sweden); Follin, Sven [SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden); Nilsson, Ann-Chatrin [G eosigma AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Roeshoff, Kennert; Lindberg, Ulrika; Lanaro, Flavio [Bergbygg konsult AB, Haesselby (Sweden); Fredriksson, Anders; Persson, Lars [Golder Associat es AB (Sweden)

    2007-04-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, Forsmark and Simpevarp/Laxemar, with the objective of siting a final waste repository at depth for spent nuclear fuel. The programme is built upon the development of site descriptive models after each data freeze. This report describes the first attempt to define fracture domains for the Forsmark site modelling in stage 2.2. Already during model version 1.2 at Forsmark, significant spatial variability in the fracture pattern was observed. The variability appeared to be so significant that it provoked the need for a subdivision of the model volume for the treatment of geological and hydrogeological data into sub-volumes. Subsequent analyses of data collected up to data freeze 2.1 led to a better understanding of the site and a concept for the definition of fracture domains based on geological characteristics matured. The main objectives of this report are to identify and describe fracture domains at the site on the basis of geological data and to compile hydrogeological, hydrogeochemical and rock mechanics data within each fracture domain and address the implications of this integration activity. On the basis of borehole data, six fracture domains (FFM01-FFM06) have been recognized inside and immediately around the candidate volume. Three of these domains (FFM01, FFM02 and FFM06) lie inside the target volume for a potential repository in the northwestern part of the candidate area, and need to be addressed in the geological DFN modelling work. The hydrogeological data support the subdivision of the bedrock into fracture domains FFM01, FFM02 and FFM03. Few or no data are available for the other three domains. The hydrogeochemical data also support the subdivision into fracture domains FFM01 and FFM02. Since few data are available from the bedrock between deformation zones inside FFM03, there is little information on the hydrogeochemical

  19. Forsmark Site: M3 modelling and 2D visualisation of the hydrochemical parameters in Forsmark groundwater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gurban, Ioana (3D Terra (Canada))

    2008-08-15

    This work represents the stage 2.3 of the hydrochemical evaluation and modelling of the Forsmark data. This comprises M3 modelling and 2D visualisation of the data along the boreholes. The following conclusions can be drawn: - M3 modelling helped to summarise and understand the data, by using as variables the major elements and the isotopes delta18O and deltaD. - Previous alternative models and the experience from Forsmark 1.2, 2.1 and 2.2, helped to clarify different previously unsolved issues such as: the use of variables, tests with different endmembers, the use of only groundwater data in order to build a bedrock hydrochemical model. - The visualisation of the mixing proportions along the boreholes helps to understand the distribution of the data in the domain and to check and compare the results of different models; and therefore to chose the model which best describes the measured data. - The different M3 modelling tests resulted in the following conclusions: a) When calculating mixing proportions only samples from the boreholes will be used, b) the altered meteoric end-member which best describes the more shallow groundwater compositions is defined by a representative upper bedrock sample; the Littorina end-member employed the existing modelled compositions; the Deep saline and glacial end-members compositions were tested by means of a feasibility study and employed in the modelling. - Three models were presented. All the models are good and can be used, but the best is to use the one that fits the conceptual model best and the hydrogeochemical understanding. - The use of Littorina, Glacial, Deep Saline and Altered Meteoric end-members makes possible the comparison of different sites such as Laxemar and Forsmark. - All the data used in the M3 modelling and the results of the modelling and visualisation along the boreholes are presented in SKB database SIMON. - The extended data do not affect the results of the modelling of the Forsmark 2.3 dataset (the

  20. Forsmark - site descriptive model version 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    During 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is starting investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian basement of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Forsmark, which lies in the municipality of Oesthammar, on the east coast of Sweden, about 150 kilometres north of Stockholm. The site description should present all collected data and interpreted parameters of importance for the overall scientific understanding of the site, for the technical design and environmental impact assessment of the deep repository, and for the assessment of long-term safety. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. The site descriptive models are devised and stepwise updated as the site investigations proceed. The point of departure for this process is the regional site descriptive model, version 0, which is the subject of the present report. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. This information, with the exception of data from tunnels and drill holes at the sites of the Forsmark nuclear reactors and the underground low-middle active radioactive waste storage facility, SFR, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. For this reason, the Forsmark site descriptive model, version 0, as detailed in the present report, has been developed at a regional scale. It covers a rectangular area, 15 km in a southwest-northeast and 11 km in a northwest-southeast direction, around the

  1. Forsmark - site descriptive model version 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    During 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is starting investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian basement of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Forsmark, which lies in the municipality of Oesthammar, on the east coast of Sweden, about 150 kilometres north of Stockholm. The site description should present all collected data and interpreted parameters of importance for the overall scientific understanding of the site, for the technical design and environmental impact assessment of the deep repository, and for the assessment of long-term safety. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. The site descriptive models are devised and stepwise updated as the site investigations proceed. The point of departure for this process is the regional site descriptive model, version 0, which is the subject of the present report. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. This information, with the exception of data from tunnels and drill holes at the sites of the Forsmark nuclear reactors and the underground low-middle active radioactive waste storage facility, SFR, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. For this reason, the Forsmark site descriptive model, version 0, as detailed in the present report, has been developed at a regional scale. It covers a rectangular area, 15 km in a southwest-northeast and 11 km in a northwest-southeast direction, around the

  2. Quantifying in situ stress magnitudes and orientations for Forsmark. Forsmark stage 2.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, C. Derek (Univ. of Alberta (Canada))

    2007-11-15

    Stephansson et al. concluded that in the Fennoscandia shield: (1) there is a large horizontal stress component in the uppermost 1,000 m of bedrock, and (2) the maximum and minimum horizontal stresses exceed the vertical stress assuming the vertical stress is estimated from the weight of the overburden. Several stress campaigns involving both overcoring and hydraulic fracturing, including the hydraulic testing of pre-existing fractures (HTPF), have been carried out at Forsmark to establish the in situ stress state. The results from the initial campaigns were summarised by Sjoeberg et al. which formed the bases for the stresses provided in the Site Descriptive Model version 1.2. Since then additional stress measurement campaigns have been completed. The results from these stress measurement campaigns support the conclusions from Stephansson et al. In addition to these in situ stress measurements the following additional studies were undertaken to aid in assessing the stress state at Forsmark. 1. A detailed televiewer survey of approximately 6,900 m of borehole walls to depths of 1,000 m was carried out to assess borehole wall damage, i.e. borehole breakouts. 2. Evaluation of nonlinear strains in laboratory samples to depths of approximately 800 m to assess if stress magnitudes were sufficient to create stress-induced microcracking. 3. Assessment of the magnitudes required to cause core disking and survey of core disking observed at Forsmark. The magnitudes and orientations from the stress measurement campaigns were analysed to establish the most likely stress magnitudes and orientations for Design Step D2 within the Target Area of the Complete Site Investigations. The maximum and minimum horizontal stress components are essentially the same as the maximum and intermediate principal stresses, sigma1 and sigma2, respectively. The minimum principal stress (sigma3) is synonymous with the vertical stress. The most likely range in values to be used in the design is also

  3. Reflection seismic studies in the Forsmark area - stage 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juhlin, Christopher; Bergman Bjoern; Palm, Hans [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Earth Sciences

    2002-10-01

    Reflection seismic data were acquired in the Spring of 2002 in the Forsmark area, located about 70 km northeast of Uppsala, Sweden. The Forsmark area has been targeted by SKB as a possible storage site for high level radioactive waste. About 16 km of high resolution seismic data were acquired along five separate profiles varying in length from 2 to 5 km. Non-final source and receiver spacing was 10 m with 100 active channels when recording data from a dynamite source (15-75 g). The profiles were located within a relatively undeformed lens of bedrock that trends in the NW-SE direction. The lens is surrounded by highly deformed rock on all sides. In conjunction with the reflection component of the study, all shots were also recorded on up to eleven 3-component fixed Orion seismographs. These recordings provided long offset data from which a velocity model of the uppermost 400 m of bedrock could be derived. Results from the study show that the bedrock has been well imaged down to depths of at least 3 km. The upper 1000 m of bedrock is much more reflective in the southeastern portion of the lens compared to the northwestern part close to the Forsmark reactors. This is interpreted as the bedrock being more homogeneous in the northwest. However, a major reflective zone (the A1 reflector) is interpreted to dip to the S-SE below this homogeneous bedrock. In the southeastern portion of the lens the orientation of the reflectors is well determined where the profiles cross one another. The general strike of the major reflectors is NE-SW with dips of 20-35 degrees to the southeast.

  4. Validation of the marine vegetation model in Forsmark. SFR-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aquilonius, Karin (Studsvik Nuclear AB (Sweden)); Qvarfordt, Susanne; Borgiel, Micke (Sveriges Vattenekologer AB (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    A regression model implemented in GIS of the marine vegetation in Forsmark were developed by SKB /Aquilonius 2010/ based on field investigations and video surveys /Fredriksson 2005/ and from correlations of field data and physical properties /Carlen et al. 2007/. The marine vegetation model describes distribution and biomasses of the marine vegetation and is used as input data in the dose modeling within the safety assessments performed by the SKB. In this study the predictive performance of the vegetation model in the less examined parts of the marine area in Forsmark is evaluated. In general, the vegetation model works very well in predicting absence of biomass, except for Red algae. In total and for Fucus sp., the model also predicts the observed biomass fairly well. However, for phanerogams, Chara sp., filamentous algae and red algae the vegetation model works less well in predicting biomass

  5. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))

    2008-01-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Forsmark area, an encompassing measurement program entailing six stations has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR) model of the Forsmark study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this scrutiny it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain, since this corresponds to the most efficient mode of water exchange. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that several periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Lack of thorough absolute calibration of the salinity meters also necessitates dismissal of measurement data. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the validation can be summarized in five points: (i) The surface-most salinity of the CR-model drifts downward a little less than one practical salinity unit (psu) per year, requiring that the ensuing correlation analysis be subdivided into periods of a

  6. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof (Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to

  7. Groundwater flow modelling of the excavation and operational phases - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Urban (Computer-aided Fluid Engineering AB, Lyckeby (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2010-07-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The modelling study reported here presents calculated inflow rates, drawdown of the groundwater table and upconing of deep saline water for different levels of grouting efficiency during the excavation and operational phases of a final repository at Forsmark. The inflow calculations are accompanied by a sensitivity study, which among other matters handles the impact of parameter heterogeneity, different deposition hole rejection criteria, and the SFR facility (the repository for short-lived radioactive waste located approximately 1 km to the north of the investigated candidate area for a final repository at Forsmark). The report also presents tentative modelling results for the duration of the saturation phase, which starts once the used parts of the repository are being backfilled.

  8. Water-rock interaction modelling and uncertainties of mixing modelling. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gimeno, Maria J.; Auque, Luis F.; Gomez, Javier B.; Acero, Patricia (Univ. of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain))

    2008-08-15

    in geochemistry, hydrochemistry, hydrogeochemistry, microbiology, geomicrobiology, analytical chemistry etc. The resulting site descriptive model version, mainly based on 2.2 data and complementary 2.3 data, was carried out during September 2006 to December 2007. Several groups within ChemNet were involved and the evaluation was conducted independently using different approaches ranging from expert knowledge to geochemical and mathematical modelling including transport modelling. During regular ChemNet meetings the results have been presented and discussed. This report presents the modelling work performed by the University of Zaragoza group as part of the work planned for Forsmark during stages 2.2 and 2.3. The chemical characteristics of the groundwaters in the Forsmark and Laxemar areas are the result of a complex mixing process driven by the input of different recharge waters since the last glaciation. The successive penetration at different depths of dilute glacial melt-waters, Littorina Sea waters and dilute meteoric waters has triggered complex density and hydraulically driven flows that have mixed them with long residence time, highly saline waters present in the fractures and in the rock matrix. A general description of the main characteristics and processes controlling the hydrogeochemical evolution with depth in the Forsmark groundwater system is presented in this report: The hydrochemical characteristics and evolution of the Near surface waters (up to 20 m depth) is mainly determined by weathering reactions and especially affected by the presence of limestones. The biogenic CO{sub 2} input (derived from decay of organic matter and root respiration) and the associated weathering of carbonates control the pH and the concentrations of Ca and HCO{sub 3}- in the near-surface environment. Current seasonal variability of CO{sub 2} input produces variable but high calcium and bicarbonate contents in the Forsmark near-surface waters: up to 240 mg/L Ca and 150 to

  9. Numerical modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran; Sassner, Mona (DHI Sverige AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-09-15

    SKB is currently performing site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow and solute transport modelling of the Forsmark site. The modelling reported in this document focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The most recent site data used in the modelling were delivered in the Forsmark 2.3 dataset, which had its 'data freeze' on March 31, 2007. The present modelling is performed in support of the final version of the Forsmark site description that is produced during the site investigation phase. In this work, the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe near-surface groundwater flow and the contact between groundwater and surface water at the Forsmark site. The surface water system at Forsmark is described with the one-dimensional 'channel flow' modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with MIKE SHE. The MIKE SHE model was updated with data from the F2.3 data freeze. The main updates concerned the geological description of the saturated zone and the time series data on water levels and surface water discharges. The time series data used as input data and for calibration and validation was extended until the Forsmark 2.3 data freeze (March 31, 2007). The present work can be subdivided into the following four parts: 1. Update of the numerical flow model. 2. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the model parameters. 3. Validation of the calibrated model, followed by evaluation and identification of discrepancies between measurements and model results. 4. Additional sensitivity analysis and calibration in order to resolve the problems identified in point three above. The main actions taken during the calibration can be summarised as follows: 1. The potential evapotranspiration was

  10. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  11. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-09-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  12. Water-rock interaction modelling and uncertainties of mixing modelling. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gimeno, Maria J.; Auque, Luis F.; Gomez, Javier B.; Acero, Patricia (Univ. of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain))

    2008-08-15

    in geochemistry, hydrochemistry, hydrogeochemistry, microbiology, geomicrobiology, analytical chemistry etc. The resulting site descriptive model version, mainly based on 2.2 data and complementary 2.3 data, was carried out during September 2006 to December 2007. Several groups within ChemNet were involved and the evaluation was conducted independently using different approaches ranging from expert knowledge to geochemical and mathematical modelling including transport modelling. During regular ChemNet meetings the results have been presented and discussed. This report presents the modelling work performed by the University of Zaragoza group as part of the work planned for Forsmark during stages 2.2 and 2.3. The chemical characteristics of the groundwaters in the Forsmark and Laxemar areas are the result of a complex mixing process driven by the input of different recharge waters since the last glaciation. The successive penetration at different depths of dilute glacial melt-waters, Littorina Sea waters and dilute meteoric waters has triggered complex density and hydraulically driven flows that have mixed them with long residence time, highly saline waters present in the fractures and in the rock matrix. A general description of the main characteristics and processes controlling the hydrogeochemical evolution with depth in the Forsmark groundwater system is presented in this report: The hydrochemical characteristics and evolution of the Near surface waters (up to 20 m depth) is mainly determined by weathering reactions and especially affected by the presence of limestones. The biogenic CO{sub 2} input (derived from decay of organic matter and root respiration) and the associated weathering of carbonates control the pH and the concentrations of Ca and HCO{sub 3}- in the near-surface environment. Current seasonal variability of CO{sub 2} input produces variable but high calcium and bicarbonate contents in the Forsmark near-surface waters: up to 240 mg/L Ca and 150 to

  13. Hydrochemistry in surface water and shallow groundwater. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mopelikan, Norrtaelje (SE)); Soederbaeck, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE)); Johansson, Per-Olof (Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (SE))

    2007-10-15

    With a mathematical/statistical approach, a large number of visualisations and models reflect the hydrochemistry in the Forsmark area, with the intention to give an understanding of important processes and factors that affect the hydrochemistry in the surface systems. In order to widen the perspective, all data from the Forsmark 2.2 stage including observations from different levels of the bedrock, as well as hydrological measurements and characterisations of the Quaternary deposits, have been included in the analyses. The purpose of this report is to give a general understanding of the site and to explain observed overall patterns as well as anomalies, and, ultimately, to present a conceptual model that explains the present hydrochemistry in the surface system in the light of the past. The report may also function as a basis for further evaluation and testing of scenarios, and may be regarded as an intermediate step between raw data compilations from the vast SICADA database and specialised expert models. The flat topography and the recent withdrawal of the Baltic Sea due to the isostatic land-uplift are two important factors determining the hydrochemistry in the Forsmark area. Marine remnants in the Quaternary deposits, as well as modern sea water intrusions, are therefore strongly influencing the hydrochemistry, especially in areas at low altitude close to the coast. Large-scale marine gradients in the surface system are consistent with the conceptual model that describes the hydrochemical evolution in a paleo-hydrologic perspective. The Forsmark area is covered by glacial remnants, mostly in the form of a till layer, which was deposited during the Weichselian glaciation and deglaciation. When the ice cover retreated about 11,000 years ago, these deposits were exposed on the sea floor. This till layer is characterized by a rich content of calcite, originating from the sedimentary bedrock of Gaevlebukten about 100 km north of Forsmark. The dissolution of this

  14. Numerical modelling of solute transport at Forsmark with MIKE SHE. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran; Sassner, Mona (DHI Sverige AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is performing site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. Data from the site investigations are used in a variety of modelling activities. This report presents model development and results of numerical transport modelling based on the numerical flow modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site. The numerical modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and is based on the site data and conceptual model of the Forsmark areas. This report presents solute transport applications based on both particle tracking simulations and advection-dispersion calculations. The MIKE SHE model is the basis for the transport modelling presented in this report. Simulation cases relevant for the transport from a deep geological repository have been studied, but also the pattern of near surface recharge and discharge areas. When the main part of the modelling work presented in this report was carried out, the flow modelling of the Forsmark site was not finalised. Thus, the focus of this work is to describe the sensitivity to different transport parameters, and not to point out specific areas as discharge areas from a future repository (this is to be done later, within the framework of the safety assessment). In the last chapter, however, results based on simulations with the re-calibrated MIKE SHE flow model are presented. The results from the MIKE SHE water movement calculations were used by cycling the calculated transient flow field for a selected one-year period as many times as needed to achieve the desired simulation period. The solute source was located either in the bedrock or on top of the model. In total, 15 different transport simulation cases were studied. Five of the simulations were particle tracking simulations, whereas the rest

  15. Spatial modelling of marine organisms in Forsmark and Oskarshamn. Including calculation of physical predictor variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlen, Ida; Nikolopoulos, Anna; Isaeus, Martin (AquaBiota Water Research, Stockholm (SE))

    2007-06-15

    GIS grids (maps) of marine parameters were created using point data from previous site investigations in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas. The proportion of global radiation reaching the sea bottom in Forsmark and Oskarshamn was calculated in ArcView, using Secchi depth measurements and the digital elevation models for the respective area. The number of days per year when the incoming light exceeds 5 MJ/m2 at the bottom was then calculated using the result of the previous calculations together with measured global radiation. Existing modelled grid-point data on bottom and pelagic temperature for Forsmark were interpolated to create surface covering grids. Bottom and pelagic temperature grids for Oskarshamn were calculated using point measurements to achieve yearly averages for a few points and then using regressions with existing grids to create new maps. Phytoplankton primary production in Forsmark was calculated using point measurements of chlorophyll and irradiance, and a regression with a modelled grid of Secchi depth. Distribution of biomass of macrophyte communities in Forsmark and Oskarshamn was calculated using spatial modelling in GRASP, based on field data from previous surveys. Physical parameters such as those described above were used as predictor variables. Distribution of biomass of different functional groups of fish in Forsmark was calculated using spatial modelling based on previous surveys and with predictor variables such as physical parameters and results from macrophyte modelling. All results are presented as maps in the report. The quality of the modelled predictions varies as a consequence of the quality and amount of the input data, the ecology and knowledge of the predicted phenomena, and by the modelling technique used. A substantial part of the variation is not described by the models, which should be expected for biological modelling. Therefore, the resulting grids should be used with caution and with this uncertainty kept in mind. All

  16. Regional hydrogeological simulations for Forsmark - numerical modelling using CONNECTFLOW. Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, Lee; Cox, Ian; Hunter, Fiona; Jackson, Peter; Joyce, Steve; Swift, Ben [Serco Assurance, Risley (United Kingdom); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-05-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) carries out site investigations in two different candidate areas in Sweden with the objective of describing the in-situ conditions for a bedrock repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site characterisation work is divided into two phases, an initial site investigation phase (IPLU) and a complete site investigation phase (KPLU). The results of IPLU are used as a basis for deciding on a subsequent KPLU phase. On the basis of the KPLU investigations a decision is made as to whether detailed characterisation will be performed (including sinking of a shaft). An integrated component in the site characterisation work is the development of site descriptive models. These comprise basic models in three dimensions with an accompanying text description. Central in the modelling work is the geological model, which provides the geometrical context in terms of a model of deformation zones and the rock mass between the zones. Using the geological and geometrical description models as a basis, descriptive models for other geo-disciplines (hydrogeology, hydro-geochemistry, rock mechanics, thermal properties and transport properties) will be developed. Great care is taken to arrive at a general consistency in the description of the various models and assessment of uncertainty and possible needs of alternative models. Here, a numerical model is developed on a regional-scale (hundreds of square kilometres) to understand the zone of influence for groundwater flow that affects the Forsmark area. Transport calculations are then performed by particle tracking from a local-scale release area (a few square kilometres) to identify potential discharge areas for the site and using greater grid resolution. The main objective of this study is to support the development of a preliminary Site Description of the Forsmark area on a regional-scale based on the available data of 30 June 2004 and the previous Site Description. A more specific

  17. Hydrogeochemical evaluation of the Forsmark site, model version 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laaksoharju, Marcus (ed.) [GeoPoint AB, Sollentuna (Sweden); Gimeno, Maria; Auque, Luis; Gomez, Javier [Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain). Dept. of Earth Sciences; Smellie, John [Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Tullborg, Eva-Lena [Terralogica AB, Graabo (Sweden); Gurban, Ioana [3D-Terra, Montreal (Canada)

    2004-01-01

    Siting studies for SKB's programme of deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste currently involves the investigation of two locations, Forsmark and Simpevarp, on the eastern coast of Sweden to determine their geological, geochemical and hydrogeological characteristics. Present work completed has resulted in model version 1.1 which represents the first evaluation of the available Forsmark groundwater analytical data collected up to May 1, 2003 (i.e. the first 'data freeze'). The HAG group had access to a total of 456 water samples collected mostly from the surface and sub-surface environment (e.g. soil pipes in the overburden, streams and lakes); only a few samples were collected from drilled boreholes. The deepest samples reflected depths down to 200 m. Furthermore, most of the waters sampled (74%) lacked crucial analytical information that restricted the evaluation. Consequently, model version 1.1 focussed on the processes taking place in the uppermost part of the bedrock rather than at repository levels. The complex groundwater evolution and patterns at Forsmark are a result of many factors such as: a) the flat topography and closeness to the Baltic Sea resulting in relative small hydrogeological driving forces which can preserve old water types from being flushed out, b) the changes in hydrogeology related to glaciation/deglaciation and land uplift, c) repeated marine/lake water regressions/transgressions, and d) organic or inorganic alteration of the groundwater caused by microbial processes or water/rock interactions. The sampled groundwaters reflect to various degrees modern or ancient water/rock interactions and mixing processes. Based on the general geochemical character and the apparent age two major water types occur in Forsmark: fresh-meteoric waters with a bicarbonate imprint and low residence times (tritium values above detection limit), and brackish-marine waters with Cl contents up to 6,000 mg/L and longer residence times (tritium

  18. Uncertainty aspects of the digital elevation model for the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroemgren, Maarten; Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2009-10-15

    A digital elevation model (DEM) describes the terrain relief. A proper DEM is an important data source for many of the different site description models conducted in the Forsmark region. Input data for the Forsmark DEM is elevation data for both land and sea areas of different origin and quality. No statistical analysis of the error in the Forsmark DEM is so far carried out. However, the Forsmark DEM is part of the quality assessment of the regolith depth model for the Forsmark area since it represents the upper surface of the regolith depth model. The aim of this project was to calculate the errors in different areas in the Forsmark DEM and present them in terms of general descriptive statistics. Measurements have confirmed the knowledge that the 0.25-metre DEM produced from the laser scanning measurements in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area is of very high quality. The 0.25-metre DEM was used to calculate the errors of the 10 and 50-metre DEMs, and the errors for different sea shoreline sources. These error distributions were placed randomly among points for the same data sources in the Forsmark area and used for correction of the original elevation levels. Using the corrected input data for the 10 and 50-metre DEMs and for the sea shoreline, a new DEM was produced. All other input data remained unchanged. The error for the Forsmark DEM was calculated for areas within the data sources corrected from the 0.25-metre DEM. The 0.25-metre DEM from the Laxemar-Simpevarp area was also used for a calculation of how density of input data points used in interpolation affects quality in a 20-metre DEM. Part of the input data was removed in the sea area, new DEMs were produced and compared to the existing Forsmark DEM within the areas of the removed data, to get a measure of the error in these areas of the DEM. In areas of input data for the sea shoreline, the quality of the Forsmark DEM is high. The errors within the SKB 10-metre DEM are slightly less than within the extension

  19. Complementary modelling of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sena, Clara; Grandia, Fidel; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2008-10-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting a comprehensive geoscientific characterization of two alternative sites to allocate a deep geological repository of high level nuclear waste. The Site Characterization Program also includes the near-surface systems, which are expected to constitute the last geological barrier between the repository system and the earth's surface. The evaluation of the retention capacity of the near surface systems is, therefore, very relevant for the site characterization program. From the geological point of view, near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits that overlay a granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the most abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit (approx75% of surface extension) and the remainder is made up of clayey materials (glacial and post-glacial clays). These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time scale considered in this work, is calcium carbonate (calcite). This mineral is found along with clay minerals (e.g. illite) and Fe(III) hydroxides. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with minor amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich levels (gyttja) which can promote reducing conditions in the system. The assessment of the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark was developed in an earlier work, that focused on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is an improvement of the geochemical conceptual and numerical model already presented, based on data available in the Site Descriptive Model v 1.2 (Forsmark). Regarding the geochemical variability of the Quaternary deposits present at Forsmark and its implications on radionuclide mobility through the near-surface systems, a

  20. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  1. Summary of discrete fracture network modelling as applied to hydrogeology of the Forsmark and Laxemar sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, Lee; Roberts, David

    2013-04-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is responsible for the development of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The permitting of such a repository is informed by assessment studies to estimate the risks of the disposal method. One of the potential risks involves the transport of radionuclides in groundwater from defective canisters in the repository to the accessible environment. The Swedish programme for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel has involved undertaking detailed surface-based site characterisation studies at two different sites, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. A key component of the hydrogeological modelling of these two sites has been the development of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) concepts of groundwater flow through the fractures in the crystalline rocks present. A discrete fracture network model represents some of the characteristics of fractures explicitly, such as their, orientation, intensity, size, spatial distribution, shape and transmissivity. This report summarises how the discrete fracture network methodology has been applied to model groundwater flow and transport at Forsmark and Laxemar. The account has involved summarising reports previously published by SKB between 2001 and 2011. The report describes the conceptual framework and assumptions used in interpreting site data, and in particular how data has been used to calibrate the various parameters that define the discrete fracture network representation of bedrock hydrogeology against borehole geologic and hydraulic data. Steps taken to confirm whether the developed discrete fracture network models provide a description of regional-scale groundwater flow and solute transport consistent with wider hydraulic tests hydrochemical data from Forsmark and Laxemar are discussed. It illustrates the use of derived hydrogeological DFN models in the simulations of the temperate period hydrogeology that provided input to radionuclide transport

  2. Modelling of temperature in deep boreholes and evaluation of geothermal heat flow at Forsmark and Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Laendell, Maerta; Sundberg, Anders (GEO INNOVA AB, Linkoeping (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    This report presents modelling of temperature and temperature gradients in boreholes in Laxemar and Forsmark and fitting to measured temperature data. The modelling is performed with an analytical expression including thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, heat flow, internal heat generation and climate events in the past. As a result of the fitting procedure it is also possible to evaluate local heat flow values for the two sites. However, since there is no independent evaluation of the heat flow, uncertainties in for example thermal conductivity, diffusivity and the palaeoclimate temperature curve are transferred into uncertainties in the heat flow. Both for Forsmark and Laxemar, reasonably good fits were achieved between models and data on borehole temperatures. However, none of the general models achieved a fit within the 95% confidence intervals of the measurements. This was achieved in some cases for the additional optimised models. Several of the model parameters are uncertain. A good model fit does not automatically imply that 'correct' values have been used for these parameters. Similar model fits can be expected with different sets of parameter values. The palaeoclimatically corrected surface mean heat flow at Forsmark and Laxemar is suggested to be 61 and 56 mW/m2 respectively. If all uncertainties are combined, including data uncertainties, the total uncertainty in the heat flow determination is judged to be within +12% to -14% for both sites. The corrections for palaeoclimate are quite large and verify the need of site-specific climate descriptions. Estimations of the current ground surface temperature have been made by extrapolations from measured temperature logging. The mean extrapolated ground surface temperature in Forsmark and Laxemar is estimated to 6.5 deg and 7.3 deg C respectively. This is approximately 1.7 deg C higher for Forsmark, and 1.6 deg C higher for Laxemar compared to data in the report SKB-TR-06-23. Comparison with

  3. Regional hydrogeological simulations for Forsmark - numerical modelling using DarcyTools. Preliminary site description Forsmark area version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-12-15

    A numerical model is developed on a regional-scale (hundreds of square kilometres) to study the zone of influence for variable-density groundwater flow that affects the Forsmark area. Transport calculations are performed by particle tracking from a local-scale release area (a few square kilometres) to test the sensitivity to different hydrogeological uncertainties and the need for far-field realism. The main objectives of the regional flow modelling were to achieve the following: I. Palaeo-hydrogeological understanding: An improved understanding of the palaeohydrogeological conditions is necessary in order to gain credibility for the site descriptive model in general and the hydrogeological description in particular. This requires modelling of the groundwater flow from the last glaciation up to present-day with comparisons against measured TDS and other hydro-geochemical measures. II. Simulation of flow paths: The simulation and visualisation of flow paths from a tentative repository area is a means for describing the role of the current understanding of the modelled hydrogeological conditions in the target volume, i.e. the conditions of primary interest for Safety Assessment. Of particular interest here is demonstration of the need for detailed far-field realism in the numerical simulations. The motivation for a particular model size (and resolution) and set of boundary conditions for a realistic description of the recharge and discharge connected to the flow at repository depth is an essential part of the groundwater flow path simulations. The numerical modelling was performed by two separate modelling teams, the ConnectFlow Team and the DarcyTools Team. The work presented in this report was based on the computer code DarcyTools developed by Computer-aided Fluid Engineering. DarcyTools is a kind of equivalent porous media (EPM) flow code specifically designed to treat flow and salt transport in sparsely fractured crystalline rock intersected by transmissive

  4. Statistics of modelled conductive fractures based on Laxemar and Forsmark. Site descriptive model data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stigsson, Martin

    2009-12-15

    The objectives of this report is to investigate the frequency of fractures assumed to be water conductive, i.e. open or partly open and directly or indirectly connected to a source. Also the distribution of total transmissivity in 100 m and 20 m horizontal sections and 8 m vertical sections is calculated. The report is only intended to serve as input to the SER, Site Engineering Report, at Laxemar and Forsmark. The input data for the analyses is taken, as is, from the Discrete Fracture Network sections in published reports. No evaluation that the model parameters are appropriate for the task or sensitivity analysis is performed. The tunnels and deposition holes are modelled as scanlines which is a very coarse approximation, but it may give some rough estimation of the frequency of the water bearing features, especially for the larger ones, and the total transmissivity in a section

  5. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Andersson, Eva (SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  6. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Andersson, Eva (SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  7. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stocholm (Sweden)); Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  8. Quantitative assessment of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2007-12-15

    The main objective of this work is to assess the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark, with special focus on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits and sediments for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is based on data and information from Forsmark Site Descriptive Model version 1.2. From the geological point of view, the near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits and sediments that overlay the granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the more abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit and the remainder is made of clayey deposits. These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time horizons considered in this work, is calcium carbonate together with minor amounts of clay minerals (e.g. illite). The till deposits forms aquifers with relatively high hydraulic conductivities. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with low to very low amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich layers (gyttja), which can promote reducing conditions in the porewaters. All these clays exhibits relatively low hydraulic conductivity values. Five radionuclides have been selected for conceptualization and qualitative evaluation of retention process: U as an actinide, Se as a redox-sensitive radionuclide, Cs as a monovalent cation, Sr as a divalent cation, and I as an anion radionuclide. Overall, radionuclide retention capacity in the surface systems at Forsmark can be provided by sorption on charged surfaces of clays and oxyhydroxides, co-precipitation with sulphates, sulphides, oxyhydroxides and carbonates, and sorption on organic matter. Two-dimensional coupled hydrogeological and reactive solute transport models have been developed to simulate the geochemical behaviour of U, Cs and Sr. These three radionuclides have

  9. Modelling of present and future hydrology and solute transport at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosson, Emma (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stocholm (Sweden)); Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    Radioactive waste from nuclear power plants in Sweden is managed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, SKB. SKB has performed site investigations at two different locations in Sweden, referred to as the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a final repository for high-level radioactive waste. In 2009 a decision was made to focus on the Forsmark site. This decision was based on a large amount of empirical evidence suggesting Forsmark to be more suitable for a geological repository /SKB 2010b/. This report presents model results of numerical flow and transport modelling of surface water and near-surface groundwater at the Forsmark site for present and future conditions. Both temperate and periglacial climates have been simulated. Also different locations of the shoreline have been applied to the model, as well as different models of vegetation and Quaternary deposits. The modelling was performed using the modelling tool MIKE SHE and was based on the SDM-Site Forsmark MIKE SHE model (presented by Bosson et al. in SKB report R-08-09). The present work is a part of the biosphere modelling performed for the SR-Site safety assessment. The Forsmark area has a flat, small-scale topography. The study area is almost entirely below 20 m.a.s.l. (metres above sea level). There is a strong correlation between the topography of the ground surface and the ground water level in the Quaternary deposits (QD); thus, the surface water divides and the groundwater divides for the QD can be assumed to coincide. No major water courses flow through the catchment. Small brooks, which often dry out in the summer, connect the different sub-catchments with each other. The main lakes in the area, Lake Bolundsfjaerden, Lake Fiskarfjaerden, Lake Gaellsbotraesket and Lake Eckarfjaerden, all have sizes of less than one km2. The lakes are in general shallow. Approximately 70% of the catchment areas are covered by forest. Agricultural land is only present in

  10. Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Bengtsson, Anna; Laendell, Maerta [Geo Innova AB, Linkoeping (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at canister scale has been modelled for two different lithological domains (RFM029 and RFM012, both dominated by granite to granodiorite (101057)). A main modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Two alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2 together with rock type models constituted from measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. Results indicate that the mean of thermal conductivity is expected to exhibit a small variation between the different domains, 3.46 W/(mxK) for RFM012 to 3.55 W/(mxK) for RFM029. The spatial distribution of the thermal conductivity does not follow a simple model. Lower and upper 95% confidence limits are based on the modelling results, but have been rounded of to only two significant figures. Consequently, the lower limit is 2.9 W/(mxK), while the upper is 3.8 W/(mxK). This is applicable to both the investigated domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 10.0% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominating rock type. There are a number of important uncertainties associated with these results. One of the uncertainties considers the representative scale for the canister. Another important uncertainty is the methodological uncertainties associated with the upscaling of thermal conductivity from cm-scale to canister scale. In addition, the representativeness of rock samples is

  11. Preliminary safety evaluation for the Forsmark area. Based on data and site descriptions after the initial site investigation stage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Johan [JA Streamflow AB, Aelvsjoe (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    The main objectives of this Preliminary Safety Evaluation (PSE) of the Forsmark area have been to determine, with limited efforts, whether the feasibility study's judgement of the suitability of the candidate area with respect to long-term safety holds up in the light of the actual site investigation data; to provide feedback to continued site investigations and site-specific repository design and to identify site-specific scenarios and geoscientific issues for further analyses. The PSE focuses on comparing the attained knowledge of the sites with the suitability criteria as set out by SKB. The PSE does not aim at comparing sites and does not assess compliance with safety and radiation protection criteria. The evaluation shows that, even considering remaining uncertainties, the Forsmark area meets all stated safety requirements and preferences. Consequently, from a safety point of view, there is no reason not to continue the Site Investigations of the Forsmark area. There are still uncertainties to resolve and the safety would eventually need to be verified through a full safety assessment. Nevertheless, this Preliminary Safety Evaluation demonstrates that it is likely that a safe repository for spent nuclear fuel of the KBS-3 type could be constructed at the site. The following feedback is provided to the site investigations and the associated site modelling: Reducing the uncertainty on the deformation zone geometry inside the target area would be needed to more firmly define locations of the suitable deposition volumes. There is substantial uncertainty in the Discrete Fracture Network model. Further reduction of the uncertainties, if needed, would probably only be possible from the underground, detailed investigation phase. Efforts need also be spent on improving the DFN-modelling. There are assumptions made in current models that could be challenged and there seems to be room for better use of the borehole information. It is particularly important to

  12. Preliminary safety evaluation for the Forsmark area. Based on data and site descriptions after the initial site investigation stage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Johan [JA Streamflow AB, Aelvsjoe (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    The main objectives of this Preliminary Safety Evaluation (PSE) of the Forsmark area have been to determine, with limited efforts, whether the feasibility study's judgement of the suitability of the candidate area with respect to long-term safety holds up in the light of the actual site investigation data; to provide feedback to continued site investigations and site-specific repository design and to identify site-specific scenarios and geoscientific issues for further analyses. The PSE focuses on comparing the attained knowledge of the sites with the suitability criteria as set out by SKB. The PSE does not aim at comparing sites and does not assess compliance with safety and radiation protection criteria. The evaluation shows that, even considering remaining uncertainties, the Forsmark area meets all stated safety requirements and preferences. Consequently, from a safety point of view, there is no reason not to continue the Site Investigations of the Forsmark area. There are still uncertainties to resolve and the safety would eventually need to be verified through a full safety assessment. Nevertheless, this Preliminary Safety Evaluation demonstrates that it is likely that a safe repository for spent nuclear fuel of the KBS-3 type could be constructed at the site. The following feedback is provided to the site investigations and the associated site modelling: Reducing the uncertainty on the deformation zone geometry inside the target area would be needed to more firmly define locations of the suitable deposition volumes. There is substantial uncertainty in the Discrete Fracture Network model. Further reduction of the uncertainties, if needed, would probably only be possible from the underground, detailed investigation phase. Efforts need also be spent on improving the DFN-modelling. There are assumptions made in current models that could be challenged and there seems to be room for better use of the borehole information. It is particularly important to

  13. Quantitative assessment of radionuclide retention in the near-surface system at Forsmark. Development of a reactive transport model using Forsmark 1.2 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos XXI Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2007-12-15

    The main objective of this work is to assess the migration behaviour of selected long-lived radionuclides through the near-surface system of Forsmark, with special focus on the evaluation of the capacity of the Quaternary deposits and sediments for radionuclide retention. The work reported here is based on data and information from Forsmark Site Descriptive Model version 1.2. From the geological point of view, the near-surface systems in the Forsmark area consist of Quaternary deposits and sediments that overlay the granitic bedrock. Glacial till is the more abundant outcropping Quaternary deposit and the remainder is made of clayey deposits. These types of near-surface sediments show distinctive hydraulic and geochemical features. The main reactive mineral in the till deposits, for the time horizons considered in this work, is calcium carbonate together with minor amounts of clay minerals (e.g. illite). The till deposits forms aquifers with relatively high hydraulic conductivities. In contrast, glacial and post-glacial clays are basically composed of illite with low to very low amounts of calcium carbonate, and containing organic matter-rich layers (gyttja), which can promote reducing conditions in the porewaters. All these clays exhibits relatively low hydraulic conductivity values. Five radionuclides have been selected for conceptualization and qualitative evaluation of retention process: U as an actinide, Se as a redox-sensitive radionuclide, Cs as a monovalent cation, Sr as a divalent cation, and I as an anion radionuclide. Overall, radionuclide retention capacity in the surface systems at Forsmark can be provided by sorption on charged surfaces of clays and oxyhydroxides, co-precipitation with sulphates, sulphides, oxyhydroxides and carbonates, and sorption on organic matter. Two-dimensional coupled hydrogeological and reactive solute transport models have been developed to simulate the geochemical behaviour of U, Cs and Sr. These three radionuclides have

  14. Update of structural models at SFR nuclear waste repository, Forsmark, Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Axelsson, C.L.; Maersk Hansen, L. [Golder Associates AB (Sweden)

    1997-12-01

    The final repository for low and medium-level waste, SFR, is located below the Baltic, off Forsmark. A number off various geo-scientific investigations have been performed and used to design a conceptual model of the fracture system, to be used in hydraulic modeling for a performance assessment study of the SFR facility in 1987. An updated study was reported in 1993. No formal basic revision of the original conceptual model of the fracture system around SFR has so far been made. During review, uncertainties in the model of the fracture system were found. The previous local structure model is reviewed and an alternative model is presented together with evidence for the new interpretation. The model is based on review of geophysical data, geological mapping, corelogs, hydraulic testing, water inflow etc. The fact that two different models can result from the same data represent an interpretation uncertainty which can not be resolved without more data and basic interpretations of such data. Further refinement of the structure model could only be motivated in case the two different models discussed here would lead to significantly different consequences 20 refs, 24 figs, 16 tabs

  15. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  16. Comparison of site descriptive models for Olkiluoto, Finland and Forsmark, Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, J.; Bath, A.; Stephansson, O.; Luukkonen, A.

    2012-08-15

    The proposed high-level radioactive waste repository sites at Olkiluoto and Forsmark share broadly similar geologic histories and regional settings. Despite differences in lithology, rock strength and patterns of brittle deformation, the sites show similarities in terms of hydrogeochemistry and hydrogeology. These similarities reflect a dominating influence of saline and brackish water intrusion during inundation by the postglacial Littorina Sea and Baltic Sea, followed by exposure to meteoric waters following postglacial uplift and transition to a Baltic coastal setting. Both sites also contain deep bedrock saline groundwater, though this is more evident at Olkiluoto than at Forsmark. A comparative study of site descriptive models for the two sites identifies the following key differences that could potentially impact safety of a repository: (1) Redox controls, buffering and biogeochemistry at proposed repository depths; (2) Salinity gradients at and below proposed repository depths; (3) Methane concentrations at and below proposed repository depths; (4) Depths to which glacial water and Littorina water penetrated; (5) Cation hydrogeochemistry and water-rock reaction; (6) Pore water compositions in rock matrix; (7) Rock fabric, secondary minerals and alteration with respect to radionuclide retention; (8) Brittle deformation fabric differences on multiple scales that affect vertical hydraulic conductivity; (9) Differences in apparent frequency of encountering water-conducting networks at proposed repository depths; (10) Shallow bedrock hydraulic properties; (11) Unique intrusive or dissolution features; (12) Connectivity of site-scale models to regional-scale features; (13) Mesoproterozoic rocks in vicinity and possibilities for human-intrusion scenarios; (14) Rock stresses and bedrock strength and deformability at proposed repository depths; (15) Thermal anisotropy. These differences are all potentially significant to safety functions, but none are so severe that

  17. Statistical model of fractures and deformations zones for Forsmark. Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Pointe, Paul R. [Golder Associate Inc., Redmond, WA (United States); Olofsson, Isabelle; Hermanson, Jan [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-04-01

    Compared to version 1.1, a much larger amount of data especially from boreholes is available. Both one-hole interpretation and Boremap indicate the presence of high and low fracture intensity intervals in the rock mass. The depth and width of these intervals varies from borehole to borehole but these constant fracture intensity intervals are contiguous and present quite sharp transitions. There is not a consistent pattern of intervals of high fracture intensity at or near to the surface. In many cases, the intervals of highest fracture intensity are considerably below the surface. While some fractures may have occurred or been reactivated in response to surficial stress relief, surficial stress relief does not appear to be a significant explanatory variable for the observed variations in fracture intensity. Data from the high fracture intensity intervals were extracted and statistical analyses were conducted in order to identify common geological factors. Stereoplots of fracture orientation versus depth for the different fracture intensity intervals were also produced for each borehole. Moreover percussion borehole data were analysed in order to identify the persistence of these intervals throughout the model volume. The main conclusions of these analyses are the following: The fracture intensity is conditioned by the rock domain, but inside a rock domain intervals of high and low fracture intensity are identified. The intervals of high fracture intensity almost always correspond to intervals with distinct fracture orientations (whether a set, most often the NW sub-vertical set, is highly dominant, or some orientation sets are missing). These high fracture intensity intervals are positively correlated to the presence of first and second generation minerals (epidote, calcite). No clear correlation for these fracture intensity intervals has been identified between holes. Based on these results the fracture frequency has been calculated in each rock domain for the

  18. Monitoring Forsmark - Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Martin [Dept of Biology, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)

    2013-03-15

    This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002 - 2012. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2012 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from 2012 generally follow patterns recorded in earlier years. 2012 was in general a better bird year compared to 2010 and 2011 and most species (82%) showed increasing or stable numbers from 2011 to 2012. Only two species (18%) decreased in numbers between the last two years. All in all, six species (55 %, black-throated diver, honey buzzard, black grouse, ural owl, wryneck and red-backed shrike) show no significant trends since the start of the bird monitoring (2002/2003/2004 depending on species). During this period three species (27 %, white-tailed eagle, osprey and lesser spotted woodpecker) have increased in numbers while just two (18 %, capercaillie and hazelhen) have decreased. A new pair of black-throated divers was discovered in 2012 and seven resident pairs were registered. Breeding success was very good, the second best during the study period. Population development follows the national pattern, but breeding success seems to be better in Forsmark than in the country as a whole. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, and breeding success for ospreys was good. No signs of successful breedings of honey buzzards were recorded, but this may mean little as no detailed monitoring of breeding success is made for this species. The white-tailed eagles had their best breeding year since the start of the SKB bird monitoring, meaning that during the last two years local breeding success has been back at the level recorded before the site investigations started. The three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) again showed somewhat varying patterns between the last two years as well as in the long run. The black grouse increased

  19. The terrestrial ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders (EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)) (ed.)

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the terrestrial ecosystems in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas by summarizing ecological data and data from disciplines such as hydrology, quaternary geology and chemistry. The description therefore includes a number of different processes that drive element fluxes in the ecosystems, such as net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, transpiration, and horizontal transport from land to streams and lakes. Moreover, the human appropriation of the landscape is described with regard to land use and potential and actual utilization of food resources both today and in a historical perspective

  20. Updated model for radionuclide transport in the near-surface till at Forsmark - Implementation of decay chains and sensitivity analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Pekala, Marek; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Trinchero, Paolo; Vries, Luis Manuel de [Amphos 21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain)

    2013-02-15

    The Forsmark area has been proposed for potential siting of a deep underground (geological) repository for radioactive waste in Sweden. Safety assessment of the repository requires radionuclide transport from the disposal depth to recipients at the surface to be studied quantitatively. The near-surface quaternary deposits at Forsmark are considered a pathway for potential discharge of radioactivity from the underground facility to the biosphere, thus radionuclide transport in this system has been extensively investigated over the last years. The most recent work of Pique and co-workers (reported in SKB report R-10-30) demonstrated that in case of release of radioactivity the near-surface sedimentary system at Forsmark would act as an important geochemical barrier, retarding the transport of reactive radionuclides through a combination of retention processes. In this report the conceptual model of radionuclide transport in the quaternary till at Forsmark has been updated, by considering recent revisions regarding the near-surface lithology. In addition, the impact of important conceptual assumptions made in the model has been evaluated through a series of deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) sensitivity calculations. The sensitivity study focused on the following effects: 1. Radioactive decay of {sup 135}Cs, {sup 59}Ni, {sup 230}Th and {sup 226}Ra and effects on their transport. 2. Variability in key geochemical parameters, such as the composition of the deep groundwater, availability of sorbing materials in the till, and mineral equilibria. 3. Variability in hydraulic parameters, such as the definition of hydraulic boundaries, and values of hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and the deep groundwater inflow rate. The overarching conclusion from this study is that the current implementation of the model is robust (the model is largely insensitive to variations in the parameters within the studied ranges) and conservative (the Base Case calculations have a

  1. Geological evolution, palaeoclimate and historical development of the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soederbaeck, Bjoern (ed.)

    2008-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site investigations started in 2002 and were completed in 2007. The analysis and modelling of data from the site investigations, which have taken place during and after these investigations, provide a foundation for the development of an integrated, multidisciplinary site descriptive model (SDM) for each of the two sites. A site descriptive model constitutes a description of the site and its regional setting, covering the current state of the geosphere and the biosphere, as well as those natural processes that affect or have affected their long-term development. Hitherto, a number of reports presenting preliminary site descriptive models for Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp have been published. In these reports, the evolutionary and historical aspects of the site were included in a separate chapter. The present report comprises a further elaboration of the evolutionary and historical information included in the preliminary SDM reports, but presented here in a separate, supplementary report to the final site description, SDM-Site. The report is common to the two investigated areas, and the overall objective is to describe the long-term geological evolution, the palaeoclimate, and the post-glacial development of ecosystems and of the human population at the two sites. The report largely consists of a synthesis of information derived from the scientific literature and other sources not related to the site investigations. However, considerable information from the site investigations that has contributed to our understanding of the past development at each site is also included. This unique synthesis of both published information in a regional perspective and new site-specific information breaks new ground in our understanding

  2. Monitoring Forsmark. Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Martin (Dept. of Animal Ecology, Lund Univ. (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds Directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002-2010. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2010 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from the monitoring in 2010 differed somewhat from results gathered in earlier years. Most monitored species have increased in local numbers during the study years, and from most years continued increases have been reported. Between 2009 and 2010 most species (seven, 64% of the monitored ones) instead decreased in numbers. Only one species (honey buzzard) increased in numbers between the years and in this case this was probably more a result of small moves by certain pairs so that they this year had parts reaching into the regional model area, while in 2009 their territories were outside of this. No dramatic changes in bird numbers were however recorded and all the studied species show stable or increasing local populations over the study period. Number of Black-throated diver pairs was normal and breeding success was good this year. The breeding success of divers has improved considerably over the studied period and the patterns recorded in Forsmark closely follow recorded patterns at the national level. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, above the average for the whole period, and breeding success was better than in 2009. Even if breeding success of honey buzzards is not monitored in any detail, there were still signs of at least a few successful breedings in the area this year. Breeding success of ospreys was below average, but still within the normal variation for most years. The local white-tailed eagles had a poor breeding season and no young at all were produced within the study area. All three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) decreased in numbers between 2009 and 2010. Note however that the large amounts of snow

  3. Mineralogy, geochemistry, porosity and redox properties of rocks from Forsmark. Compilation of data from the regional model volume for SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Stephens, Michael B. (Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden))

    2009-11-15

    This report is a compilation of the data acquired during the Forsmark site investigation programme on the mineralogy, geochemistry, redox properties and porosity of different rock types at Forsmark. The aim is to provide a final summary of the available data for use during the SR-Site modelling work. Data presented in this report represent the regional model volume and have previously been published in various SKB reports. The data have been extracted from the SKB database Sicada and are presented as calculated median values, data range and lower/upper quartile. The representativity of all samples used for the calculations have been evaluated and data from samples where there is insufficient control on the rock type have been omitted. Rock samples affected by alteration have been omitted from the unaltered samples and are presented separately based on type of alteration (e.g. oxidised or albitized rock)

  4. Encapsulation plant at Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nystroem, Anders

    2007-08-15

    SKB has already carried out a preliminary study of an encapsulation plant detached from Clab (Central interim storage for spent fuels). This stand-alone encapsulation plant was named FRINK and its assumed siting was the above-ground portion of the final repository, irrespective of the repository's location. The report previously presented was produced in cooperation with BNFL Engineering Ltd in Manchester and the fuel reception technical solution was examined by Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Service mbH (GNS) in Hannover and by Societe Generale pour les Techniques Nouvelles (SGN) in Paris. This report is an update of the earlier preliminary study report and is based on the assumption that the encapsulation plant and also the final repository will be sited in the Forsmark area. SKB's main alternative for siting the encapsulation plant is next to Clab. Planning of this facility is ongoing and technical solutions from the planning work have been incorporated in this report. An encapsulation plant placed in proximity to any final repository in Forsmark forms part of the alternative presentation in the application for permission to construct and operate an installation at Clab. The main technical difference between the planned encapsulation plant at Clab and an encapsulation plant at a final repository at Forsmark is how the fuel is managed and prepared before actual encapsulation. Fuel reception at the encapsulation plant in Forsmark would be dry, i.e. there would be no water-filled pools at the facility. Clab is used for verificatory fuel measurements, sorting and drying of the fuel before transport to Forsmark. This means that Clab will require a measure of rebuilding and supplementary equipment. In purely technical terms, the prospects for building an encapsulation plant sited at Forsmark are good. A description of the advantages and drawbacks of siting the encapsulation plant at Clab as opposed to any final repository at Forsmark is presented in a separate

  5. Conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide transport in near-surface systems at Forsmark. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pique, Angels; Grandia, Fidel; Sena, Clara; Arcos, David; Molinero, Jorge; Duro, Lara; Bruno, Jordi (Amphos21 Consulting S.L., Barcelona (Spain))

    2010-11-15

    In the framework of the SR-Site safety assessment, a conceptual and numerical modelling of radionuclide reactive transport in near-surface systems (including till and clay systems) at Forsmark has been carried out. The objective was to evaluate the retention capacity of the near-surface systems, composed of Quaternary deposits, which would be the last natural barrier for an eventual radionuclide release from the deep repository prior to reaching the biosphere. The studied radionuclides are 14C, 129I, 36Cl, 94Nb, 59Ni, 93Mo, 79Se, 99Tc, 230Th, 90Sr, 226Ra, 135Cs and U. Conceptual description and numerical simulations of radionuclide reactive transport show that cation exchange and surface complexation on illite are active processes for the retention of several radionuclides (U, Th, Ni, Cs, Sr, Ra). Surface complexation on iron hydroxide is an active process in the till system, able to effectively retain U and Ni. Another retention process of importance is the incorporation of the radionuclides into mineral phases, either by the precipitation of pure phases or solid solutions. Quantitative modelling has been useful to illustrate the incorporation of C and Sr in the carbonate solid solution in the considered model domains (till and clay), as well as the precipitation of uraninite in the clay sediments and the precipitation of native selenium and radiobarite in the till. Other mineral phases that could, a priori, retain U, Se, Nb and Tc do not precipitate in the simulations, either due to the pH-Eh conditions and/or because the dissolved concentration of the element is not high enough under the considered simulation conditions. It is important to keep in mind that changes in these parameters and in the boundary conditions could modify the predicted behaviour of these elements. The radionuclides that are most significantly retarded are Th, Ni and Cs, mainly through sorption onto illite. Therefore, if the amount of illite (or available sorption sites) decreases, the

  6. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S. [Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Ade, Brian J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, Stephen M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gauld, Ian C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Marshall, William BJ J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  7. Human population and activities in Forsmark. Site description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miliander, Sofia; Punakivi, Mari; Kylaekorpi, Lasse; Rydgren, Bernt [SwedPower AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for a deep repository of radioactive waste. Two alternative locations are under investigation. These are Forsmark, Oesthammars kommun (kommun = municipality) and Simpevarp/Laxemar, Oskarshamns kommun. SKB has expressed the importance of describing the humans and their activities in these areas and therefore has this synthesis concerning the human population in Forsmark been produced.The description is a statistical synthesis, mainly based upon statistical data from SCB (Statistics Sweden) that has been collected, processed and analysed. The statistical data has not been verified through site inspections and interviews. When using statistical data, it is advisable to note that the data becomes more unreliable if the areas are small, with small populations.The data in this description is essential for future evaluations of the impact on the environment and its human population (Environmental Impact Assessments). The data is also important when modelling the potential flows of radio nuclides and calculating the risk of exposure in future safety assessments.The actual area for the study is in this report called 'the Forsmark area', an area of 19.5 km{sup 2} near Forsmark nuclear power plant. The land use in the Forsmark area differs notably from the land use in Uppsala laen (laen = county). Only 0.04% of the total area is developed (built-up) compared to 4.9% in Uppsala laen and only 4% is agricultural land compared to 25% in the county. Furthermore, there are far more forest, wetlands and water areas in the Forsmark area. The forest area represents as much as 72.5% of the total area.The Forsmark area is uninhabited, and its surroundings are very sparsely populated. In 2002, the population density in Forsmark was 1.8 inhabitants per square kilometre, which was 24 times lower than in Uppsala laen. The population density in the

  8. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik (eds.)

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models.

  9. Modelling of soil depth and lake sediments. An application of the GeoEditor at the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vikstroem, Maria [DHI Water and Environment AB, Lund (Sweden)

    2005-02-01

    This report aims at describing the modelled soil depth according to three layers with different hydrogeological properties at the Forsmark site, based on available data from boreholes, observation points, seismic data and radar profiles. For the lakes in the area, the sediment has been modelled according to six layers of the most common deposits in the area. The peat layer at Stenroesmossen has also been visualized. The program used in the modelling of soil depths is the GeoEditor, which is an ArcView3.3-extension. The input data used in the model consist of 1,532 points based on seismic measurements, 31 profiles of interpreted ground penetrating radar data, 119 boreholes and 472 observation points. The western and south eastern part of the area has a low data density. In the southern parts the data density with respect to estimated bedrock elevation is low. Observation points in this area are generally not very deep and do not describe the actual bedrock elevation. They do, however, describe the minimum soil depth at each location. A detailed topographical DEM, bathymetry and map of Quaternary deposits were also used. The model is based on a three-layer-principle where each layer is assumed to have similar hydrological characteristics. The uppermost layer, Z1, is characterized by the impact from surface processes, roots and biological activity. The bottom layer, Z3, is characterized by contact with the bedrock. The middle layer, Z2, is assumed to have different hydraulic qualities than Z1 and Z3. The lake sediments have been modelled according to six classes of typical deposits. The modelled soil depths show a relatively high bedrock elevation and thus small total soil depth in the major part of the area. The median soil depth has been calculated to 1.9 m, based on model results in areas with higher data density. The maximum modelled soil depth is about 13 m, just north of Lake Stocksjoen. Generally, the sediment layers in the lakes of the area consists of a

  10. Hydrological and hydro-geological effects on wetlands and forest areas from the repository at Forsmark. Results from modelling with MIKE SHE; Hydrologiska och hydrogeologiska effekter paa vaatmarker och skogsomraaden av slutfoervarsanlaeggningen i Forsmark. Resultat fraan modellering med MIKE SHE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maartensson, Erik; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran; Gustafsson, Ann-Marie; Aneljung, Maria; Sabel, Ulrika (DHI Sverige AB, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-06-15

    This report provides background material for investigations and associated impact assessments concerning water operations in terms of withdrawal of groundwater from the final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark. The report presents detailed modelling results in the form of supplementary sensitivity analyses and detailed hydrological and hydrogeological analyses of specific nature objects in Forsmark. The sensitivity analyses aim to investigate the sensitivity of the modelling results to i) the meteorological conditions, ii) impervious surfaces and iii) the model description of the present SFR (final repository for short-lived radioactive waste). A number of simulation cases aim to study cumulative effects of groundwater withdrawal from an extended SFR. The simulations are evaluated with respect to the groundwater table drawdown and head changes in the bedrock. The report analyses the hydrogeological and hydrological conditions for a number of selected wetland objects and forest objects. The selection of objects aims to cover different types of valuable nature objects at different geographical locations in relation to the influence area of the groundwater table drawdown. The analysis comprises groundwater levels at all nature objects, whereas wetlands with particularly high nature values have been studied in detail with respect to surface water levels, the need for water supply and object-specific water balances. These studies have been performed for different meteorological conditions in the form of a type (2006) and a statistically normal, dry and wet year, respectively, with a return period of 100 years for the dry- and wet years. All simulations for disturbed conditions with a fully open repository are done with a hydraulic conductivity of K{sub inj} = 10-7 or 10-8 m/s in the grouted zone. The results show that time-dependent precipitation and snow melt have large influence on the temporal variations of the depth to the groundwater table for

  11. Using the PCRaster-POLFLOW approach to GIS-based modelling of coupled groundwater-surface water hydrology in the Forsmark Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jarsjoe, Jerker; Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Destouni, Georgia [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology

    2004-09-01

    The catchment-scale hydrologic modelling approach PCRaster-POLFLOW permits the integration of environmental process modelling functions with classical GIS functions such as database maintenance and screen display. It has previously successfully been applied at relatively large river basins and catchments, such as Rhine, Elbe and Norrstroem, for modelling stream water flow and nutrient transport. In this study, we review the PCRaster-POLFLOW modelling approach and apply it using a relatively fine spatial resolution to the smaller catchment of Forsmark. As input we use data from SKB's database, which includes detailed data from Forsmark (and Simpevarp), since these locations are being investigated as part of the process to find a suitable location for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel. We show, by comparison with independently measured, area-averaged runoff data, that the PCRaster-POLFLOW model produces results that, without using site-specific calibration, agree well with these independent measurements. In addition, we deliver results for four planned hydrological stations within the Forsmark catchment thus allowing for future direct comparisons with streamflow monitoring. We also show that, and how, the PCRaster-POLFLOW model in its present state can be used for predicting average seasonal streamflow. The present modelling exercise provided insights into possible ways of extending and using the PCRaster-POLFLOW model for applications beyond its current main focus of surface water hydrology. In particular, regarding analysis of possible surface water-groundwater interactions, we identify the Analytic Element Method for groundwater modelling together with its GIS-based pre- and post processor ArcFlow as suitable and promising for use in combination with the PCRaster-POLFLOW modelling approach. Furthermore, for transport modelling, such as that of radionuclides entering the coupled shallow groundwater-surface water hydrological system from possible deep

  12. Safety-related site characteristics - a relative comparison of the Forsmark reference areas; Saekerhetsrelaterade platsegenskaper - en relativ jaemfoerelse av Forsmark med referensomraaden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winberg, Anders (Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    SKB has over the years from 2002 to 2008 conducted site investigations in Forsmark and Laxemar, with associated site modeling, design and safety analysis. In mid-2009 Forsmark was selected on the basis of analysis made as site for a future repository for spent nuclear fuel. Based on defined safety-related geoscientific location factors data from Forsmark are compared in relative terms with data from a number of locations in Sweden, previously studied by SKB. The factors compared include: the rock's composition and structures, future climate evolution, rock mechanical conditions, earthquakes, groundwater flow, groundwater composition, delay of solutes, and the ability to characterize and describe the location. Past comparisons of these properties for the selected sites show that none of these sites collectively show any significant benefit over Forsmark site for a repository. This does not preclude that there may be places on the basis of an overall assessment of geoscientific location factors could be equivalent to Forsmark

  13. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (eds.)

    2006-10-15

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained.

  14. Approaches to confirmatory testing of a groundwater flow model for sparsely fractured crystalline rock, exemplified by data from the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follin, Sven; Hartley, Lee

    2014-03-01

    The Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB (SKB) has proposed the Forsmark site as a future repository for spent high-level nuclear fuel, involving disposal at about 470 m depth in sparsely fractured crystalline bedrock. An essential part of the completed inter-disciplinary site investigation was to develop an integrated account of the site and its regional setting, including the current state of the geosphere and the biosphere as well as natural processes affecting long-term evolution. First, this report recollects the integrated understanding and some key hydraulic characteristics of the crystalline bedrock at Forsmark along with a description of the flow model set-up and the methodology used for paleoclimatic flow modeling. Second, the protocol used for site-scale groundwater flow and solute transport modeling is demonstrated. In order to conduct a quantitative assessment of groundwater flow paths at Forsmark, the standard guide for groundwater flow modeling was elaborated on, to support both discrete and porous media flow approaches. In total, four independent types of data were used to confirm that the final groundwater flow model for the crystalline bedrock was representative of site conditions.

  15. Site description of Forsmark at completion of the site investigation phase. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., SKB, has undertaken site characterisation in two different areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, in order to identify a suitable location for a geological repository of spent nuclear fuel according to the KBS-3 method. The site investigations have been conducted in campaigns, punctuated by data freezes. After each data freeze, the site data have been analysed and modelling has been carried out with the overall purpose to develop a site descriptive model (SDM). The site descriptive model is used by repository engineering to design the underground facility and to develop a repository layout adapted to the site. It is also essential for safety assessment, since the model is the only source for site-specific input. Another important use of the site descriptive model is in the environmental impact assessment. An SDM is an integrated model for geology, thermal properties, rock mechanics, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, bedrock transport properties and a description of the surface system. The site descriptive model compiled in the current report, SDM-Site, presents an integrated understanding of the Forsmark area at the completion of the surface-based investigations, which were conducted at Forsmark during the period 2002 to 2007. It also provides a summary of the abundant underlying data and the discipline-specific models that support the site understanding. The description relies heavily on background reports that address, in particular, details in data analyses and modelling in the different disciplines. The Forsmark area is located in northern Uppland within the municipality of Oesthammar, about 120 km north of Stockholm. The candidate area for site investigation is located along the shoreline of Oeregrundsgrepen, within the north-western part of a major tectonic lens that formed between 1.87 and 1.85 billion years ago during the Svecokarelian orogeny. The candidate area is approximately 6 km long and 2 km wide. The

  16. Groundwater flow modeling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions for the safety assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Näslund, Jens-Ove

    2014-09-01

    The impact of periglacial and glacial climate conditions on groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rock is studied by means of groundwater flow modeling of the Forsmark site, which was recently proposed as a repository site for the disposal of spent high-level nuclear fuel in Sweden. The employed model uses a thermal-hydraulically coupled approach for permafrost modeling and discusses changes in groundwater flow implied by the climate conditions found over northern Europe at different times during the last glacial cycle (Weichselian glaciation). It is concluded that discharge of particles released at repository depth occurs very close to the ice-sheet margin in the absence of permafrost. If permafrost is included, the greater part discharges into taliks in the periglacial area. During a glacial cycle, hydraulic gradients at repository depth reach their maximum values when the ice-sheet margin passes over the site; at this time, also, the interface between fresh and saline waters is distorted the most. The combined effect of advances and retreats during several glaciations has not been studied in the present work; however, the results indicate that hydrochemical conditions at depth in the groundwater flow model are almost restored after a single event of ice-sheet advance and retreat.

  17. Hydrological and hydrogeological effects of an open repository in Forsmark. Final MIKE SHE flow modelling results for the Environmental Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maartensson, Erik; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-07-15

    This report presents methodology and modelling results concerning a deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark. Specifically, the modelling tools MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 and MOUSE are used to quantify the groundwater inflow to the repository and associated hydrological and hydrogeological effects during the construction and operation phases. The modelling results presented in the report provide input to the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that will be part of a permit application according to the Environmental Code. Based on an existing MIKE SHE model for Forsmark, the first step of the modelling process was to implement an updated hydrogeological model of the bedrock and to increase the vertical and horizontal extents of the model domain. Other model updates involve the vegetation classification, and implementation of SFR (final repository for short-lived radioactive waste) and the subsurface drainage system at the nearby nuclear power plant. The updated model was calibrated using measured data on groundwater levels in the Quaternary deposits and the bedrock, water levels in lakes, and stream discharges. The calibrated model was then used for simulation of undisturbed conditions (i.e. without the repository) as a reference for modelling results obtained for disturbed conditions (with the repository). The modelling results for undisturbed conditions that are presented in the report closely resemble those of the final MIKE SHE site descriptive modelling (SDM-Site Forsmark). The repository layout was implemented as pipe links (segments) in the modelling tool MOUSE, and the implemented layout was used for the modelling of disturbed conditions. The study uses an updated and verified MIKE SHE-MOUSE coupling routine that is specifically adapted for calculation of groundwater inflow to grouted rock tunnels. The vertical shafts of the repository are implemented in the form of MIKE SHE grid cells with atmospheric pressure. Modelling results for disturbed

  18. SR-Site - hydrogeochemical evolution of the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salas, Joaquin; Molinero, Jorge; Juarez, Iker (Amphos 21 (Spain)); Gimeno, Maria Jose; Auque, Luis; Gomez, Javier (Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain))

    2010-12-15

    The present work has involved the development of a methodology in order to simulate the evolution of the groundwater composition within the candidate repository site of the Forsmark area. A series of climate periods is expected to be probable after the repository closure (temperate, periglacial and glacial) and, eventually, the area could be submerged under seawaters or under a lake of glacial melt waters. These environmental conditions will affect groundwater flow and composition around of the candidate repository volume. The present report summarizes the results obtained by the calculations which reproduce the hydrogeochemical evolution in the Forsmark area, and within the candidate repository volume. The hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwaters is one of the key factors affecting the chemical stability of the buffer and the canister. In this way, the main objective of the hydrogeochemical simulations is to assay the evolution of a series of safety assessment factors, such as salinity, redox potential, pH, and concentrations of iron, sulphide and potassium, among others. Using ConnectFlow, previous hydrological calculations have provided the transport of (1) the fractions of selected reference waters (Deep Saline, Old Meteoric, Glacial, Littorina and Altered Meteoric groundwaters), or (2) salinities, depending on the working team (Serco or Terrasolve). The results of the regional-scale groundwater flow modelling for each specific climate period are used as input of the geochemical models. Groundwater compositions have been modelled using PHREEQC, through mixing and chemical reactions between the waters obtained from the hydrogeological models and the reactive fracture-filling minerals. Both models (hydrological and geochemical) are not fully coupled, and it allows a description of the geochemical heterogeneity, which otherwise would be hard to attain. The stage of the open repository has been non-numerically analysed. Aspects as salinity, redox conditions

  19. SR-Site - hydrogeochemical evolution of the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salas, Joaquin; Molinero, Jorge; Juarez, Iker (Amphos 21 (Spain)); Gimeno, Maria Jose; Auque, Luis; Gomez, Javier (Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain))

    2010-12-15

    The present work has involved the development of a methodology in order to simulate the evolution of the groundwater composition within the candidate repository site of the Forsmark area. A series of climate periods is expected to be probable after the repository closure (temperate, periglacial and glacial) and, eventually, the area could be submerged under seawaters or under a lake of glacial melt waters. These environmental conditions will affect groundwater flow and composition around of the candidate repository volume. The present report summarizes the results obtained by the calculations which reproduce the hydrogeochemical evolution in the Forsmark area, and within the candidate repository volume. The hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwaters is one of the key factors affecting the chemical stability of the buffer and the canister. In this way, the main objective of the hydrogeochemical simulations is to assay the evolution of a series of safety assessment factors, such as salinity, redox potential, pH, and concentrations of iron, sulphide and potassium, among others. Using ConnectFlow, previous hydrological calculations have provided the transport of (1) the fractions of selected reference waters (Deep Saline, Old Meteoric, Glacial, Littorina and Altered Meteoric groundwaters), or (2) salinities, depending on the working team (Serco or Terrasolve). The results of the regional-scale groundwater flow modelling for each specific climate period are used as input of the geochemical models. Groundwater compositions have been modelled using PHREEQC, through mixing and chemical reactions between the waters obtained from the hydrogeological models and the reactive fracture-filling minerals. Both models (hydrological and geochemical) are not fully coupled, and it allows a description of the geochemical heterogeneity, which otherwise would be hard to attain. The stage of the open repository has been non-numerically analysed. Aspects as salinity, redox conditions

  20. Monitoring Forsmark. Meteorological monitoring at Forsmark, January-December 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Cari; Jones, Joergen (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoeping (Sweden))

    2011-01-15

    In the Forsmark area, SKB's meteorological monitoring started in 2003 at the sites Storskaeret and Hoegmasten. However, since July 1, 2007 measurements are only performed at Hoegmasten. Measured and calculated parameters at Hoegmasten are precipitation and corrected precipitation, air temperature, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, air humidity, global radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, has been responsible for planning and design, as well as for the operation of the stations used for meteorological monitoring. In general, the quality of the meteorological measurements during the period concerned, starting January 1, 2010, and ending December 31, 2010, has shown to be good

  1. Forsmark site investigation. Bedrock geology - overview and excursion guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Michael B. (Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden))

    2010-09-15

    Bearing in mind the significance of the bedrock data from the ground surface for the geological 3D modelling work, SKB decided to present excursion guides that serve in the demonstration of the bedrock geology at the ground surface in both the Forsmark (this guide) and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas. An excursion guide is also available for the Olkiluoto area in south-western Finland, which has been selected for the construction of a repository for the disposal of highly radioactive, spent nuclear fuel in Finland. The current excursion guide presents the bedrock geology and describes in detail the character of the bedrock at ten representative outcrops or outcrop areas at the ground surface in the site investigation area at Forsmark. All localities are located within or immediately adjacent to the proposed repository volume selected by SKB

  2. Site description of Forsmark at completion of the site investigation phase. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., SKB, has undertaken site characterisation in two different areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, in order to identify a suitable location for a geological repository of spent nuclear fuel according to the KBS-3 method. The site investigations have been conducted in campaigns, punctuated by data freezes. After each data freeze, the site data have been analysed and modelling has been carried out with the overall purpose to develop a site descriptive model (SDM). The site descriptive model is used by repository engineering to design the underground facility and to develop a repository layout adapted to the site. It is also essential for safety assessment, since the model is the only source for site-specific input. Another important use of the site descriptive model is in the environmental impact assessment. An SDM is an integrated model for geology, thermal properties, rock mechanics, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, bedrock transport properties and a description of the surface system. The site descriptive model compiled in the current report, SDM-Site, presents an integrated understanding of the Forsmark area at the completion of the surface-based investigations, which were conducted at Forsmark during the period 2002 to 2007. It also provides a summary of the abundant underlying data and the discipline-specific models that support the site understanding. The description relies heavily on background reports that address, in particular, details in data analyses and modelling in the different disciplines. The Forsmark area is located in northern Uppland within the municipality of Oesthammar, about 120 km north of Stockholm. The candidate area for site investigation is located along the shoreline of Oeregrundsgrepen, within the north-western part of a major tectonic lens that formed between 1.87 and 1.85 billion years ago during the Svecokarelian orogeny. The candidate area is approximately 6 km long and 2 km wide. The

  3. Execution programme for the initial site investigations at Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-05-01

    criteria for the discontinuation of the investigations. A programme adapted for the site investigation at Forsmark has been developed. The programme gives an overview of the whole site investigation phase as well as a detailed description of the initial stage, i.e. the first two years. The results of the initial investigations will determine whether Forsmark is appropriate for further investigation, i. e. the complete site investigations. This document is a short summary of the investigations planned to be carried out at Forsmark during the initial site investigation. The plans will be successively updated as results from the investigations become available.

  4. Alternative modelling of brittle structures in a sub-area of the SKB candidate area at Forsmark, eastern Sweden.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Askling, Per; Tiren, Sven A.; Beckholmen, Monica; Straeng, Thomas (Geosigma AB, Uppsala (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    One way to test the confidence of a presented model is to construct an alternative model. Such work is cognitive process of skill acquisition and also a process of understanding data in the sense of sorting and classifying data. This is of particular interest for the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) in their technical review of SKB's on-going site investigation programme for potential repository sites. In this study, an alternative brittle deformation model of a selected part of the SKB candidate area in eastern Sweden was constructed. The input data set was obtained from SKB's database SICADA and is a selected set of data from five cored boreholes drilled from two drill-sites and comprises geophysical borehole logs, geological core-logs, hydrological logs (PFL; Posiva Flow Log) and borehole deviation measurements. Statistical cluster analysis applied on the geophysical borehole data were used to obtain the locations of bedrock with contrasting physical characteristics similar to those of brittle deformation zones. The cluster analysis is an objective procedure, contrasting with SKB's more subjective approach to the single-hole interpretation. Thus some differences are expected which could illustrate the effect of methodology that includes subjective 'expert judgement.' and indicate the possibility of alternative interpretations. The information about brittle structures in the geological boreholes logs was sorted and classification was made according to character of the structures (all fractures, open fractures, partly open fractures, frequency, orientate on/identification of fracture sets, sections of crush rock, and alteration). A separate study was performed to relate rock alteration with structures. The resolution applied in the fracture statistics is one metre, i.e. all studied entities were expressed per metre borehole length. All clusters were structurally characterized by the fractures inside the clusters (orientation and

  5. Characteristics and ontogeny of oligotrophic hardwater lakes in the Forsmark area, central Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunberg, A.K.; Blomqvist, P. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology

    1999-12-01

    colonise the littoral, and a mire is formed around the lake. In later stages of succession, Sphagnum becomes more and more dominant in the system, which successively turns acidic. The final stage of the ontogeny is likely to be a raised bog ecosystem with an autonomous hydrological functioning. A tentative model for a mature hardwater lake has been created, indicating how and where substances from the drainage area may be accumulated in the system. Depending on the (unknown) hydrology of the lake basin, accumulation of substances can either take place in the Sphagnum littoral, in the illuminated soft-bottom sediments or in both these habitats. Processes in the open water will be of less importance in the system, since production of organisms in that habitat is most likely low. However, fish may act as a pump for nutrients and organic matter between the soft-bottom and the open water habitats, thereby disturbing the accumulation of substances in the sediments. In conclusion, several pieces are lacking to complete the picture of the structure and functioning of the ecosystem in the oligotrophic hardwater lakes of the Forsmark area. Research directed towards the understanding of the lakes as a trap for contaminants should be focused on the hydrology of the basin and on the basal production in two of the key habitats; the mire/floating littoral system and the 'microbial mat' in the light exposed soft bottom areas.

  6. Decommissioning study of Forsmark NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anunti, Aake; Larsson, Helena; Edelborg, Mathias [Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden)

    2013-06-15

    By Swedish law it is the obligation of the nuclear power utilities to satisfactorily demonstrate how a nuclear power plant can be safely decommissioned and dismantled when it is no longer in service as well as calculate the estimated cost of decommissioning of the nuclear power plant. Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (SKB) has been commissioned by the Swedish nuclear power utilities to meet the requirements of current legislation by studying and reporting on suitable technologies and by estimating the costs of decommissioning and dismantling of the Swedish nuclear power plants. The present report is an overview, containing the necessary information to meet the above needs, for the Forsmark NPP. Information is given for the plant about the inventory of materials and radioactivity at the time for final shutdown. A feasible technique for dismantling is presented and the waste management is described and the resulting waste quantities are estimated. Finally a schedule for the decommissioning phase is given and the costs associated are estimated as a basis for funding.

  7. Fracture mineralogy of the Forsmark site. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandstroem, Bjoern (Dept. of Earth Sciences, Univ. of Goeteborg (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB, Graabo (Sweden)); Smellie, John (Conterra AB, Luleaa (Sweden)); MacKenzie, Angus B. (SUERC, Scottish Enterprise Technology Park, East Kilbride (United Kingdom)); Suksi, Juhani (Dept. of Chemistry, Univ. of Helsinki, Helsinki (Finland))

    2008-08-15

    Detailed investigations of the fracture mineralogy and altered wall rock have been carried out as part of the site characterisation programme between 2003 and 2007 at Forsmark. The results have been published in a number of P-reports and in contributions to scientific journals. This report summarises and evaluates the data obtained during the detailed fracture mineralogical studies. The report includes descriptions of the identified fracture minerals and their chemical composition. A sequence of fracture mineralisations has been distinguished and provides information of the low to moderate temperature (brittle) geological and hydrogeological evolution at the site. Special focus has been paid to the chemical and stable isotopic composition of calcite to obtain palaeohydrogeological information. Chemical analyses of bulk fracture filling material have been carried out to identify possible sinks for certain elements and also to reveal the presence of minor phases rich in certain elements which have not been possible to detect by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Statistical analysis of the mineralogy in fractures outside deformation zones (i.e. within fracture domains FFM01, FFM02, FFM03 and FFM06) have been carried out concerning variation of fracture mineral distribution at depth and in different fracture domains. Uranium contents and uranium-series isotopes have been analysed on fracture coating material from hydraulically conductive fractures. Such analyses are also available from the groundwaters and the results are combined in order to reveal recent (< 1 Ma) removal/deposition of uranium in the fracture system. The redox conditions in the fracture system have been evaluated based on mineralogical and chemical indicators as well as Moessbauer analyses

  8. Simulated carbon and water processes of forest ecosystems in Forsmark and Oskarshamn during a 100-year period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering; Gaerdenaes, Annemieke [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Soil Sciences; Eckersten, Henrik [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Crop Production Ecology

    2006-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is currently investigating the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for possible localisation of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Important components of the investigations are characterizations of the land surface ecosystems in the areas with respect to hydrological and biological processes, and their implications for the fate of radionuclide contaminants entering the biosphere from a shallow groundwater contamination. In this study, we simulate water balance and carbon turnover processes in forest ecosystems representative for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for a 100-year period using the ecosystem process model CoupModel. The CoupModel describes the fluxes of water and matter in a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, forced by time series of meteorological variables. The model has previously been parameterized for many of the vegetation systems that can be found in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas: spruce/pine forests, willow, grassland and different agricultural crops. This report presents a platform for further use of models like CoupModel for investigations of radionuclide turnover in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn area based on SKB data, including a data set of meteorological forcing variables for Forsmark 1970-2004, suitable for simulations of a 100-year period representing the present day climate, a hydrological parameterization of the CoupModel for simulations of the forest ecosystems in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas, and simulated carbon budgets and process descriptions for Forsmark that correspond to a possible steady state of the soil storage of the forest ecosystem.

  9. Site investigation SFR. Vegetation in streams in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Eva (Svensk Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (Sweden)); Aquilonius, Karin; Sivars Becker, Lena (Studsvik Nuclear AB (Sweden)); Borgiel, Mikael (Sveriges Vattenekologer AB (Sweden))

    2011-09-15

    The streams in the model area of Forsmark have previously been thoroughly investigated regarding water chemistry, hydrology, bottom substrate, flooding, percentage coverage of macrophytes and fish migration. Retention of radionuclides in a stream ecosystem is assumed to occur by sorption to sediments or by uptake of radionuclides by macrophytes and it is therefore of interest to know the biomass and production of macrophytes in the streams included in a safety assessment. The general aim of this study was to examine the relation between biomass and the percentage cover of vegetation in streams in the Forsmark area. In this study streams within and nearby the candidate area in Forsmark was investigated. The somewhat larger streams Forsmarksaan and Olandsaan nearby the candidate area, are assumed to be more similar to future streams developing in Forsmark due to landrise, than the smaller streams present in the candidate area today. In total 22 vegetation samples were gathered in order to estimate the biomass at the sites. Percentage coverage of macrophytes, and dominating species were noted and the above ground macrophytes were sampled for biomass analysis. In the smaller streams, the biomass varied between 6 and almost 358 g dry weight per square metre. In the larger streams, the dry biomass varied between 0 and 247 g dry weight per square meter. There were no significant difference between macrophyte biomass in smaller and the larger stream. In total 13 macrophyte species were found. The biomass dry weight at 100% covering degree varied depending on macrophyte species. Although this was a rather small study, it is evident that the biomasses do vary a wide range between sampling squares in the area. However, although it may be difficult to use this data set to estimate the biomass in a specific square meter in the stream section, the relation between biomass weight and covering degree is sufficient to be used when fitting biomass to macrophyte coverage for entire

  10. Soil carbon effluxes in ecosystems of Forsmark and Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tagesson, Torbern (Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund Univ. (Sweden))

    2007-12-15

    Soil carbon effluxes were estimated in a number of ecosystems in Laxemar and Forsmark investigations areas. It was done in a young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) stand, a wet deciduous stand, a poor fen and an agricultural field in the Laxemar investigation area in south-eastern Sweden (57 deg 5 min N, 16 deg 7 min E) and in a pasture, two Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands, a deciduous forest, a mire, a wet deciduous forest and a clear-cut in the Forsmark investigation area (60 deg 4 min N, 18 deg 2 min E). It was measured with the closed chamber technique in 2005 and 2006. Soil temperature at 10 cm depth, air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were also measured. Exponential regressions with soil respiration against air and soil temperature were used to estimate annual soil respiration. A hyperbolic curve with Gross Primary Production (GPP) against PAR was used for modelling GPP for the growing season in the poor fen and the agricultural area of Laxemar. The exponential regressions with soil respiration against air and soil temperature explained on average 33.6% and 44.0% of the variation, respectively. GPP of the ground vegetation were reducing soil carbon effluxes, in all stands but one of the spruce stands, the deciduous forest, the mire and the wet deciduous forest of Forsmark. The significant (all but spruce 2 in Forsmark) curves with GPP against PAR explained on average 22.7% of the variation in GPP. The cubic regressions with GPP against air temperature were only significant for the poor fen and the agricultural field in Laxemar and it explained on average 34.8% of the variation in GPP for these ecosystems. The exponential regressions with air and soil temperature against soil respiration could be used to temporally extrapolate the occasional field measurements. The hyperbolic curve with GPP against PAR could also be used for temporal extrapolation of GPP for the ecosystems without a tree layer, i.e. the poor fen and the agricultural

  11. Landscape Forsmark - data, methodology and results for SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias (ed.) (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report presents an integrated description of the landscape at the Forsmark site during the succession from present conditions to the far future. It was produced as a part of the biosphere modelling within the SR-Site safety assessment. The report gives a description of input data, methodology and resulting models used to support the current understanding of the landscape used in SR-Site. It is intended to describe the properties and conditions at the site and to give information essential for demonstrating understanding. The report relies heavily on a number of discipline-specific background reports concerning details of the data analyses and modelling. Long-term landscape development in the Forsmark area is dependent on two main and partly interdependent factors, i.e. climate variations and shoreline displacement. These two factors in combination strongly affect a number of processes, which in turn determine the development of ecosystems. Some examples of such processes are erosion and sedimentation, groundwater recharge and discharge, soil formation, primary production and decomposition of organic matter. The biosphere at the site during the next 1,000 years is assumed to be quite similar to the present situation. The most important changes are the natural infilling of lakes and a slight withdrawal of the sea with its effects on the near-shore areas and the shallow coastal basins. The climate during the rest of the temperate period may vary considerably, with both warmer and colder periods. The main effect of temperature changes will be on the vegetation period. Changed temperatures may give rise to drier or wetter climate and to changed snow cover and frost characteristics, and this can in turn affect the dominant vegetation and mire build-up. The description of the Forsmark ecosystem succession during a glacial cycle is one of the main features of the SR-Site biosphere modelling. The future areas potentially affected by deep groundwater discharge are

  12. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Eva

    2010-12-15

    The overall objective of this report is to describe the limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar- Simpevarp, identify important processes in a radionuclide perspective and provide a description of the radionuclide model for the biosphere used in SR-Site. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar- Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components (biomass as well as production), water chemistry, and comparison with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. A separate chapter is included to specifically describe how and where these processes are included in the radionuclide model. The radionuclide model is described and parameterisation and guidance to parameter calculation is provided. The last chapter of the report provides a summary of the knowledge of the limnic systems at the two areas. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 25 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in the lakes

  13. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Eva

    2010-12-15

    The overall objective of this report is to describe the limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar- Simpevarp, identify important processes in a radionuclide perspective and provide a description of the radionuclide model for the biosphere used in SR-Site. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar- Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components (biomass as well as production), water chemistry, and comparison with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. A separate chapter is included to specifically describe how and where these processes are included in the radionuclide model. The radionuclide model is described and parameterisation and guidance to parameter calculation is provided. The last chapter of the report provides a summary of the knowledge of the limnic systems at the two areas. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 25 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in the lakes

  14. Evaluation of the state of stress at the Forsmark site. Preliminary site investigation Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, Jonny; Lindfors, Ulf; Perman, Fredrik; Ask, Daniel [SwedPower AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-09-15

    of a hollow core. Having two observations of different core geometries can significantly increase the accuracy in stress estimation from core discing observations. However, the uncertainties associated with the methodology for using core discing observations to estimate stresses must be considered. Additional work to verify this approach would be beneficial for an improved stress estimate at Forsmark. Hydraulic measurements (primarily HTPF) should be planned following overcoring measurements, to complement the stress assessment and resolve any remaining issues. An integrated stress determination using inversion analysis for both overcoring and hydraulic data should also be considered for the site. A new approach for stress modelling is proposed, in which the boundary conditions of a numerical stress model are calibrated in an objective manner to individual or groups of stress measurements, without excluding any data a priori.

  15. A methodology to constrain the parameters of a hydrogeological discrete fracture network model for sparsely fractured crystalline rock, exemplified by data from the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follin, Sven; Hartley, Lee; Rhén, Ingvar; Jackson, Peter; Joyce, Steven; Roberts, David; Swift, Ben

    2014-03-01

    The large-scale geological structure of the crystalline rock at the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden, has been classified in terms of deformation zones of elevated fracture frequency. The rock between deformation zones was divided into fracture domains according to fracture frequency. A methodology to constrain the geometric and hydraulic parameters that define a discrete fracture network (DFN) model for each fracture domain is presented. The methodology is based on flow logging and down-hole imaging in cored boreholes in combination with DFN realizations, fracture connectivity analysis and pumping test simulations. The simulations suggest that a good match could be obtained for a power law size distribution where the value of the location parameter equals the borehole radius but with different values for the shape parameter, depending on fracture domain and fracture set. Fractures around 10-100 m in size are the ones that typically form the connected network, giving inflows in the simulations. The report also addresses the issue of up-scaling of DFN properties to equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) bulk flow properties. Comparisons with double-packer injection tests provide confidence that the derived DFN formulation of detailed flows within individual fractures is also suited to simulating mean bulk flow properties and their spatial variability.

  16. Water activities in Forsmark. Ecological field inventory and classification of biodiversity values and description of forest production land; Vattenverksamhet i Forsmark. Ekologisk faeltinventering och naturvaerdesklassificering samt beskrivning av skogsproduktionsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamren, Ulrika; Collinder, Per (Ekologigruppen AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    In 2009, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) chose Forsmark in the Municipality of Oesthammar as site for the final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report describes nature values and forestry areas in Forsmark, and provides part of the background material for description of consequences due to groundwater diversion during construction and operation of the repository. The report describes results of map studies and comprehensive field investigations, in terms of geographical delineations, descriptions of characteristics and classifications of nature values for groundwater dependent or groundwater favoured nature objects in Forsmark. The nature objects are located in an investigation area, which contains the area that according to numerical flow modelling could be affected by groundwater-table drawdown due to groundwater diversion

  17. The marine ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aquilonius, Karin (ed.) (Studsvik Nuclear AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the marine ecosystems at the sites Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, to identify processes in these ecosystems of importance to transfer and accumulation of radionuclides and, finally based on this knowledge, develop parameters to be used for the marine ecosystem in the safety analysis SR-Site. The report includes a thorough description of the major components in the marine ecosystems in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, and covers the following areas: chemical and physical characteristics, climate and meteorology, morphology and regolith, biota in the marine ecosystem, human impact, water exchange and historical evolution at the sites. The site specific characteristics are compared with marine data from the Baltic region. Marine ecosystem modeling and mass balances calculations for carbon and a number of other elements were carried out to further improve the understanding of the marine ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are identified, described and evaluated according to a systematic method. The derivation of marine ecosystem parameters and the resulting parameters is presented. The last chapter of the report aims at summarizing the knowledge of the marine ecosystems at the two areas. In comparison with the Gulf of Bothnia and the Baltic Proper, salinity is somewhat lower in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp respectively. The nitrogen and phosphorus levels at the two sites are low to moderately high compared with environmental monitoring data for corresponding areas in the Baltic Sea. In Forsmark, nitrogen seems to be the limiting nutrient during the summer months. In Laxemar-Simpevarp, nitrogen seems to be the limiting nutrient in the outer areas and phosphorus in the inner bays. This coincides with the general conditions in the Bothnian Sea (Forsmark) and the Baltic Proper (Laxemar-Simpevarp). The annual mean water temperature in Forsmark is slightly higher than the

  18. Description of surface systems. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area Version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias (ed.)

    2005-06-01

    Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) started site investigations for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel in 2002 at two different sites in Sweden, Forsmark and Oskarshamn. The investigations should provide necessary information for a license application aimed at starting underground exploration. For this reason, ecosystem data need to be interpreted and assessed into site descriptive models, which in turn are used for safety assessment studies and for environmental impact assessment. Descriptions of the surface system are also needed for further planning of the site investigations. This report describes the surface ecosystems of the Forsmark site (e.g. hydrology, Quaternary deposits, chemistry, vegetation, animals and the human land use). The ecosystem description is an integration of the site and its regional setting, covering the current state of the biosphere as well as the ongoing natural processes affecting the longterm development. Improving the descriptions is important during both the initial and the complete site investigation phase. Before starting of the initial phase in Forsmark, version 0 of the site descriptive model was developed. The results of the initial site investigation phase is compiled into a preliminary site description of Forsmark (version 1.2) in June 2005. This report provides the major input and background to the biosphere description, in the 1.2 version of the Forsmark site description. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured field data from the Forsmark sub area and regional area, available in the SKB SICADA, and GIS data bases as of July 31th 2004 as well as version 1.1 of the Site Descriptive Model. To achieve an ecosystem site description there is a need to develop discipline-specific models by interpreting and analysing primary data. The different discipline-specific models are then integrated into a system describing interactions and flows and stocks of matter between and within functional units in

  19. Subsidence analysis Forsmark nuclear power plant - unit 1; Saettningsanalys Forsmarks kaernkraftverk - aggregat 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bono, Nancy; Fredriksson, Anders; Maersk Hansen, Lars (Golder Associates AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    On behalf of SKB, Golder Associates Ltd carried out a risk analysis of subsidence during Forsmark nuclear power plant in the construction of the final repository for spent nuclear fuel near and below existing reactors. Specifically, the effect of horizontal cracks have been studied.

  20. The marine ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aquilonius, Karin (ed.) (Studsvik Nuclear AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the marine ecosystems at the sites Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, to identify processes in these ecosystems of importance to transfer and accumulation of radionuclides and, finally based on this knowledge, develop parameters to be used for the marine ecosystem in the safety analysis SR-Site. The report includes a thorough description of the major components in the marine ecosystems in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, and covers the following areas: chemical and physical characteristics, climate and meteorology, morphology and regolith, biota in the marine ecosystem, human impact, water exchange and historical evolution at the sites. The site specific characteristics are compared with marine data from the Baltic region. Marine ecosystem modeling and mass balances calculations for carbon and a number of other elements were carried out to further improve the understanding of the marine ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are identified, described and evaluated according to a systematic method. The derivation of marine ecosystem parameters and the resulting parameters is presented. The last chapter of the report aims at summarizing the knowledge of the marine ecosystems at the two areas. In comparison with the Gulf of Bothnia and the Baltic Proper, salinity is somewhat lower in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp respectively. The nitrogen and phosphorus levels at the two sites are low to moderately high compared with environmental monitoring data for corresponding areas in the Baltic Sea. In Forsmark, nitrogen seems to be the limiting nutrient during the summer months. In Laxemar-Simpevarp, nitrogen seems to be the limiting nutrient in the outer areas and phosphorus in the inner bays. This coincides with the general conditions in the Bothnian Sea (Forsmark) and the Baltic Proper (Laxemar-Simpevarp). The annual mean water temperature in Forsmark is slightly higher than the

  1. Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-03-01

    This report presents the interim version (model version 1.1) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for Forsmark. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from Forsmark that were available in the SKB databases SICADA and GIS at April 30, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data acquired during the initial site investigation phase to the date of data freeze 1.1 constitute the basis for the updating of version 0 to version 1.1. These data originate from surface investigations on the candidate area with its regional environment and from drilling and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were rather extensive whereas the data sets from boreholes were limited to information from one 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KFM01A) and eight 150 to 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes in the Forsmark candidate area. Discipline specific models are developed for a selected regional and local model volume and these are then integrated into a site description. The current methodologies for developing the discipline specific models and the integration of these are documented in methodology reports or strategy reports. In the present work, the guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible with the data and information available at the time for data freeze for model version 1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version 1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and much higher resolution surface data. The existence of highly fractured sub-horizontal zones has been verified and these are now part of the model of the deformation zones. A discrete fracture network (DFN) model has also been developed. The rock mechanics model is based on strength information from SFR and an empirical

  2. Background complementary hydrogeochemical studies. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalinowski, Birgitta E. (ed.)

    2008-08-15

    The overall objectives of the hydrogeochemical description for Forsmark are to establish a detailed understanding of the hydrogeochemical conditions at the site and to develop models that fulfil the needs identified by the safety assessment groups during the site investigation phase. Issues of concern to safety assessment are radionuclide transport and technical barrier behaviour, both of which are dependent on the chemistry of groundwater and pore water and their evolution with time. The work has involved the development of descriptive and mathematical models for groundwaters in relation to rock domains, fracture domains and deformation zones. Past climate changes are one of the major driving forces for hydrogeochemical changes and therefore of fundamental importance for understanding the palaeohydrogeological, palaeohydrogeochemical and present evolution of groundwater in the crystalline bedrock of the Fennoscandian Shield. Understanding current undisturbed hydrochemical conditions at the proposed repository site is important when predicting future changes in groundwater chemistry. The causes of copper corrosion and/or bentonite degradation are of particular interest as they may jeopardise the long-term integrity of the planned SKB repository system. Thus, the following variables are considered for the hydrogeochemical site descriptive modelling: pH, Eh, sulphur species, iron, manganese, uranium, carbonate, phosphate, nitrogen species, total dissolved solids (TDS), isotopes, colloids, fulvic and humic acids and microorganisms. In addition, dissolved gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and hydrogen) are of interest because of their likely participation in microbial reactions. In this series of reports, the final hydrogeochemical evaluation work of the site investigation at the Forsmark site, is presented. The work was conducted by SKB's hydrogeochemical project group, ChemNet, which consists of independent consultants and university researchers with expertise

  3. Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, Kristina (ed.)

    2005-06-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. An integrated component in the characterisation work is the development of a site descriptive model that constitutes a description of the site and its regional setting, covering the current state of the geosphere and the biosphere as well as those ongoing natural processes that affect their long-term evolution. The present report documents the site descriptive modelling activities (version 1.2) for the Forsmark area. The overall objectives of the version 1.2 site descriptive modelling are to produce and document an integrated description of the site and its regional environments based on the site-specific data available from the initial site investigations and to give recommendations on continued investigations. The modelling work is based on primary data, i.e. quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data available in the SKB databases SICADA and GIS, available July 31, 2004. The work has been conducted by a project group and associated discipline-specific working groups. The members of the project group represent the disciplines of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and surface ecosystems (including overburden, surface hydrogeochemistry and hydrology). In addition, some group members have specific qualifications of importance in this type of project e.g. expertise in RVS (Rock Visualisation System) modelling, GIS-modelling and in statistical data analysis. The overall strategy to achieve a site description is to develop discipline-specific models by interpretation and analyses of the primary data. The different discipline-specific models are then integrated into a site description. Methodologies for developing the discipline-specific models are documented in

  4. Results from Marine geological investigations outside Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nyberg, Johan; Elhammer, Anders; Sohlenius, Gustav; Kjellin, Bernt; Nordgren, Paer (Geological Survey of Sweden (Sweden))

    2011-08-15

    A detailed marine geological survey was conducted in a 10 km2 large area outside Forsmark comprising hydro acoustic, 100 m spacing between survey lines, and groundtruthing. These data, together with reanalyzed survey data retrieved in 2002 from the same area, were used to produce maps of seabed and underlying bedrock surface morphology as well as horizontal and vertical extension of sediments. An esker is discovered running approximately in a north northwesterly-south southeasterly direction in the area, which may be causing submarine groundwater discharge. Pockmarks, which are caused by sediment gas of thermogenic and/or microbial origin, are detected in the area. In addition to the original commissioned survey, bedrock surface and seabed morphology as well as horizontal and vertical extension of sediments in a larger adjacent area were reanalyzed and produced from survey lines retrieved during a commission by SKB in 2002 and during SGUs regular mapping program in 2002, 2008 and 2009

  5. Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-03-01

    This report presents the interim version (model version 1.1) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for Forsmark. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from Forsmark that were available in the SKB databases SICADA and GIS at April 30, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data acquired during the initial site investigation phase to the date of data freeze 1.1 constitute the basis for the updating of version 0 to version 1.1. These data originate from surface investigations on the candidate area with its regional environment and from drilling and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were rather extensive whereas the data sets from boreholes were limited to information from one 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KFM01A) and eight 150 to 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes in the Forsmark candidate area. Discipline specific models are developed for a selected regional and local model volume and these are then integrated into a site description. The current methodologies for developing the discipline specific models and the integration of these are documented in methodology reports or strategy reports. In the present work, the guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible with the data and information available at the time for data freeze for model version 1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version 1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and much higher resolution surface data. The existence of highly fractured sub-horizontal zones has been verified and these are now part of the model of the deformation zones. A discrete fracture network (DFN) model has also been developed. The rock mechanics model is based on strength information from SFR and an empirical

  6. Site description of the SFR area at Forsmark at completion of the site investigation phase. SDM-PSU Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-05-15

    The site descriptive model (SDM) presented in this report is an integrated model for bedrock geology, rock mechanics, bedrock hydrogeology and bedrock hydrogeochemistry of the site investigated in the SFR extension project (PSU). A description of the surface system is also included in the report. However, the surface system is not integrated with the other disciplines as new data regarding the surface system will not be available until after the completion of SDM-PSU. It is noted that SDM-PSU does not include all disciplines handled in SDM-Site Forsmark (SKB 2008b), the focus is to produce a site description that meets the needs of the SFR extension project. The overall objective of the SFR extension project is to have the application for the extension ready by 2013. This report presents an integrated site model incorporating the historic data acquired from the investigations for and construction of the existing SFR facility (1980-1986), as well as from the recent investigations for the planned extension of SFR (2008-2009). It also provides a summary of the abundant underlying data and the discipline-specific models that support the integrated site model. The description relies heavily on background reports concerning detailed data analyses and modelling in the different disciplines. It is noteworthy that the investigations conducted during the SFR extension project were guided by the choice of site prior to the investigations, which was based on the experience gained during the construction of the existing SFR facility.

  7. Background complementary hydrogeochemical studies. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalinowski, Birgitta E. (ed.)

    2008-08-15

    The overall objectives of the hydrogeochemical description for Forsmark are to establish a detailed understanding of the hydrogeochemical conditions at the site and to develop models that fulfil the needs identified by the safety assessment groups during the site investigation phase. Issues of concern to safety assessment are radionuclide transport and technical barrier behaviour, both of which are dependent on the chemistry of groundwater and pore water and their evolution with time. The work has involved the development of descriptive and mathematical models for groundwaters in relation to rock domains, fracture domains and deformation zones. Past climate changes are one of the major driving forces for hydrogeochemical changes and therefore of fundamental importance for understanding the palaeohydrogeological, palaeohydrogeochemical and present evolution of groundwater in the crystalline bedrock of the Fennoscandian Shield. Understanding current undisturbed hydrochemical conditions at the proposed repository site is important when predicting future changes in groundwater chemistry. The causes of copper corrosion and/or bentonite degradation are of particular interest as they may jeopardise the long-term integrity of the planned SKB repository system. Thus, the following variables are considered for the hydrogeochemical site descriptive modelling: pH, Eh, sulphur species, iron, manganese, uranium, carbonate, phosphate, nitrogen species, total dissolved solids (TDS), isotopes, colloids, fulvic and humic acids and microorganisms. In addition, dissolved gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and hydrogen) are of interest because of their likely participation in microbial reactions. In this series of reports, the final hydrogeochemical evaluation work of the site investigation at the Forsmark site, is presented. The work was conducted by SKB's hydrogeochemical project group, ChemNet, which consists of independent consultants and university researchers with expertise

  8. The potential for ore and industrial minerals in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindroos, Hardy [MIRAB Mineral Resurser AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Isaksson, Hans; Thunehed, Hans [GeoVista AB, Luleaa (Sweden)

    2004-03-01

    , although to a lesser degree. The candidate area is covered by granitic rocks and can be described as sterile from an ore viewpoint. The small iron ores in the Forsmark area have no economic value, and this judgement is probably also valid in the long time perspective. There are no deposits of industrial minerals or commercial stone in the area. Existing pegmatites are uninteresting from an ore viewpoint. Models of selected magnetic anomalies and geological observations indicate that zones with iron ores are steeply dipping, thin and not very persistent. Most dip towards the southwest or southeast, i.e. away from the candidate area. Comparisons with the iron ore in Dannemora show that an ore of this size cannot occur either on the surface or at mineable depth in Forsmark. The final judgement is that an area south of the candidate area in Forsmark has a small ore potential for iron, but that this type of ore is of no interest whatsoever, now and in the future. Compared with central parts of Bergslagen, the Forsmark area's ore potential is insignificant. There is no interest for prospecting in the area. The entire candidate area is free of ore potential.

  9. Recharge and discharge of near-surface groundwater in Forsmark. Comparison of classification methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden); Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-03-15

    This report presents and compares data and models for identification of near-surface groundwater recharge and discharge (RD) areas in Forsmark. The general principles of groundwater recharge and discharge are demonstrated and applied to interpret hydrological and hydrogeological observations made in the Forsmark area. 'Continuous' RD classification methods considered in the study include topographical modelling, map overlays, and hydrological-hydrogeological flow modelling. 'Discrete' (point) methods include field-based and hydrochemistry-based RD classifications of groundwater monitoring well locations. The topographical RD modelling uses the digital elevation model as the only input. The map overlays use background maps of Quaternary deposits, soils, and ground- and field layers of the vegetation/land use map. Further, the hydrological-hydrogeological modelling is performed using the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 software packages, taking into account e.g. topography, meteorology, hydrogeology, and geometry of watercourses and lakes. The best between-model agreement is found for the topography-based model and the MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 model. The agreement between the topographical model and the map overlays is less good. The agreement between the map overlays on the one hand, and the MIKE SHE and field-based RD classifications on the other, is thought to be less good, as inferred from the comparison made with the topography-based model. However, much improvement of the map overlays can likely be obtained, e.g. by using 'weights' and calibration (such exercises were outside the scope of the present study). For field-classified 'recharge wells', there is a good agreement to the hydrochemistry-based (Piper plot) well classification, but less good for the field-classified 'discharge wells'. In addition, the concentration of the age-dating parameter tritium shows low variability among recharge wells, but a large spread among discharge

  10. Construction experiences from underground works at Forsmark. Compilation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsson, Anders [Vattenfall Power Consultant AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Christiansson, Rolf [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-02-15

    The main objective with this report, the Construction Experience Compilation Report (CECR), is to compile experiences from the underground works carried out at Forsmark, primarily construction experiences from the tunnelling of the two cooling water tunnels of the Forsmark nuclear power units 1, 2 and 3, and from the underground excavations of the undersea repository for low and intermediate reactor waste, SFR. In addition, a brief account is given of the operational experience of the SFR on primarily rock support solutions. The authors of this report have separately participated throughout the entire construction periods of the Forsmark units and the SFR in the capacity of engineering geologists performing geotechnical mapping of the underground excavations and acted as advisors on tunnel support; Anders Carlsson participated in the construction works of the cooling water tunnels and the open cut excavations for Forsmark 1, 2 and 3 (geotechnical mapping) and the Forsmark 3 tunnel (advise on tunnel support). Rolf Christiansson participated in the underground works for the SFR (geotechnical mapping, principal investigator for various measurements and advise on tunnel support and grouting). The report is to a great extent based on earlier published material as presented in the list of references. But it stands to reason that, during the course of the work with this report, unpublished notes, diaries, drawings, photos and personal recollections of the two authors have been utilised in order to obtain such a complete compilation of the construction experiences as possible.

  11. Comparison of Olkiluoto (Finland) and Forsmark (Sweden) candidate sites for radioactive-waste disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geier, J. E.; Bath, A.; Stephansson, O.; Luukkonen, A.

    2012-12-01

    Site characterizations for deep radioactive-waste repositories consider rock properties, groundwater conditions, and the influences of regional settings and site-specific evolution. We present a comparison of these aspects for two candidate repository sites that have similar rocks and coastal settings, but are 200 km apart on opposite sides of the Gulf of Bothnia. The Olkiluoto site in Finland and the Forsmark site in Sweden are both in hard crystalline rock (migmatite gneiss and metagranite, respectively) with groundwater flow mainly via fractures. Both sites are undergoing licensing for a high-level radioactive-waste repository. The licensing is stepwise in Finland, and operation in both countries will be strictly regulated, but all responsibility lies with the implementers until accepted closure. The comparison reveals many expected similarities but also unexplained differences, which illustrate the complexities of site characterization in fractured crystalline rock. Both sites underwent a similar sequence of hydrologic conditions over the Weichselian and earlier glacial cycles. Hydrogeologically, Forsmark has more conductive upper bedrock, contributing to a very flat water table. Deep bedrock at Olkiluoto is more fractured in the horizontal plane. At repository depth and below, Forsmark likely contains larger volumes of low-conductivity rock. At both sites, the local model is connected to regional-scale boundaries via submarine deformation zones which (especially at Olkiluoto) are poorly characterized. Stress measurements at the two sites have shown that vertical stress is in agreement with the weight of overburden while horizontal stresses differ in magnitude and orientation. Interpreted overcoring stress measurements from Forsmark are almost twice the magnitudes estimated from hydraulic methods. Rock mechanical differences include the possibility that Olkiluoto bedrock is more prone to spalling than Forsmark. Olkiluoto bedrock is more anisotropic in terms of

  12. Forsmark site investigation. A deformation analysis of the Forsmark GPS monitoring network from 2005 to 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, Lars; Ljungberg, Annika (Caliterra AB (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    The objective of the study is to identify possible movements in the bedrock within and outside the candidate area at Forsmark. Seven physically stable stations were built in the Forsmark area in the autumn of 2005. Stations were established within a ten-kilometer radius. The stations were placed in three different areas separated by regional deformation zones: NE of the Singoe zone, within the candidate area, and SW of the Forsmark zone. Data have been collected in eighteen campaigns, each with a duration of about five days, from November 2005 to December 2009. Stations consist of a stainless steel rod fixed in the bedrock on which the GPS antenna mounts. Each station has dedicated GPS equipment only used at the specific site. Sets consist of a GPS receiver collecting raw GPS data and a choke ring antenna linked to the receiver using a coaxial cable. The receivers and antennas are dual frequency high precision geodetic grade. During each campaign the GPS receiver saves a reading every second for the duration of the five days campaign. The antennas remain mounted on the stations during the entire project, whereas all other equipment is in place at the station only during the campaigns. The measurements were related to the SWEPOS network stations Lovoe, Uppsala and Maartsbo that are defined as stations with stable fundaments by the National Land Survey of Sweden (Lantmaeteriet). This report deals with altogether 18 campaigns. The first 13 campaigns were performed during the period November 2005 to August 2008. However, the number of campaigns has been extended by adding a fourth year to the project. Optimization of the data processing depends on the properties of the entire data set comprising a period of four years. We divided the data into periods of 24 hours with each period processed as a separate session in the Bernese post processing software, after which we analyzed the residuals to conclude that data are of the expected quality. The entire data set from four

  13. Inventory of mammals at Forsmark and Haallnaes; Inventering av daeggdjur i Forsmark och Haallnaes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Truve, Johan [Svensk Naturfoervaltning AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2012-08-15

    A selection of terrestrial mammals was surveyed in the SKB site investigation areas near Forsmark and Haallnaes between January and April 2012. The methods that were used include snow tracking along line transects, snow tracking along water, aerial survey and fecal pellet counts. The same species were found in 2012 as in previous surveys performed in 2002, 2003 and 2007. Some species show a large variation in density between years and it is difficult to draw any conclusions about their long term development. Several carnivores, i.e. lynx, fox and otter show a positive growth rate in both areas. The wild boar population is also growing whilst moose density remains fairly stable and roe deer are becoming less numerous.

  14. Bioturbation in different ecosystems at Forsmark and Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Tryggve; Lenoir, Lisette; Taylor, Astrid [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Research, Swedish University or Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2007-01-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) carries out extensive investigations on factors that can affect long-term storage of nuclear waste. Earthworms consume organic soil materials and when doing so they transport and mix mineral soil particles as well as litter and humus materials. Ants do not consume soil materials, but they collect and mix mineral soil particles and litter materials to construct their nests. This process of material displacement by earthworms and ants is called bioturbation and can be a mechanism for the redistribution (vertical and horizontal) of radionuclides within the soil profile. The aim of the present study was to determine the quantitative impact of earthworms and ants on bioturbation of soil in different ecosystems at Forsmark and Oskarshamn. Earthworms were sampled at four 20x20 cm{sup 2} sub-plots at each site and were determined, dried and weighed in the laboratory. Gut passage time and faeces production were determined in a laboratory experiment at constant temperature. Temperature dependence of earthworm growth was studied at 3, 6, 10 and 20 deg C, and it was assumed that defecation mirrored growth as regards temperature dependence. Ant species composition, ant nest density and nest volume were investigated in the field by using pitfall traps and a transect method to enumerate ant nests. Dry weights of ant nests were determined after weighing in the laboratory. Earthworm abundances and biomasses were high in moist/wet alder forests and deciduous woodlands and low in pine and pine/spruce forests at both Forsmark and Oskarshamn. In mesic spruce forests, high estimates of abundance/biomass of earthworms were found at Forsmark but low at Oskarshamn, whereas grazed pastures had high estimates at Oskarshamn and ungrazed abandoned fields had relatively low estimates at Forsmark. High pH at Forsmark and low pH at Oskarshamn as well as high groundwater tables at some of the Forsmark sites can explain the difference between

  15. Three stage semelparous Leslie models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M

    2009-07-01

    Nonlinear Leslie matrix models have a long history of use for modeling the dynamics of semelparous species. Semelparous models, as do nonlinear matrix models in general, undergo a transcritical equilibrium bifurcation at inherent net reproductive number R(0) = 1 where the extinction equilibrium loses stability. Semelparous models however do not fall under the purview of the general theory because this bifurcation is of higher co-dimension. This mathematical fact has biological implications that relate to a dichotomy of dynamic possibilities, namely, an equilibration with over lapping age classes as opposed to an oscillation in which age classes are periodically missing. The latter possibility makes these models of particular interest, for example, in application to the well known outbreaks of periodical insects. While the nature of the bifurcation at R(0) = 1 is known for two-dimensional semelparous Leslie models, only limited results are available for higher dimensional models. In this paper I give a thorough accounting of the bifurcation at R(0) = 1 in the three-dimensional case, under some monotonicity assumptions on the nonlinearities. In addition to the bifurcation of positive equilibria, there occurs a bifurcation of invariant loops that lie on the boundary of the positive cone. I describe the geometry of these loops, classify them into three distinct types, and show that they consist of either one or two three-cycles and heteroclinic orbits connecting (the phases of) these cycles. Furthermore, I determine stability and instability properties of these loops, in terms of model parameters, as well as those of the positive equilibria. The analysis also provides the global dynamics on the boundary of the cone. The stability and instability conditions are expressed in terms of certain measures of the strength and the symmetry/asymmetry of the inter-age class competitive interactions. Roughly speaking, strong inter-age class competitive interactions promote

  16. Permanent scatterer InSAR processing: Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dehls, John F. [Geological Survey of Norway, Trondheim (Norway)

    2006-04-15

    It has been speculated that slow, aseismic movement may be occurring along some of the fracture zones crosscutting the Forsmark area. The purpose of this study is to determine if it is possible to measure such movement using dInSAR. Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) is a technique that compares the phases of multiple radar images of an area to measure surface change. The method has the potential to detect millimetric surface deformation along the sensor - target line-of-sight. Differences in phase between two images are easily viewed by combining, or interfering, the two phase-images. In the resulting image, the waves will either reinforce or cancel one another, depending upon the relative phases. The resulting image is called an interferogram and contains concentric bands of colour, or fringes, that are related to topography and/or surface deformation. New algorithms use many images acquired over a long time period to determine the movement history of individual objects, referred to as permanent scatterers. In the current project, standard PSInSAR processing was performed on 40 ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes. The total area processed is approximately 1,500 km{sup 2}. Slightly less than 20,000 permanent scatterers were identified.The highest densities were obtained along the coast and on the islands, where natural outcrops are more abundant. Two main classes of objects act as permanent scatterers in this area. The first are natural reflectors, such as rocks. The second are man-made reflectors, such as parts of buildings. Numerous local movements were found in the study area, relating to building subsidence, or compaction of anthropogenic fill. The dataset was divided into three groups for analysis, based upon the location of regional lineaments provided by SKB. Both statistical and geostatistical techniques were used. The median velocity of the three blocks did not differ by more than 0.2 mm/yr. This is not considered significant, given the possible magnitude of

  17. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  18. Indirect estimations and spatial variation in leaf area index of coniferous, deciduous and mixed forest stands in Forsmark and Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tagesson, Torbern [Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    Two sites in Sweden are investigated for a potential deep repository of the nuclear waste, the Laxemar investigation area (57 deg 5 min N, 16 deg 7 min E) and the Forsmark investigation area (60 deg 4 min N, 18 deg 2 min E). In the characterisation of these sites, development of site descriptive models is an important part. Leaves are the main surface were an exchange of matter and energy between the atmosphere and the biosphere takes place, and leaf area index (LAI) of the vegetation cover is an important variable correlated to a number of ecophysiological parameters and hereby an important parameter in ecosystem models. In the investigation areas, LAI of boreal and temperate ecosystems were therefore estimated indirectly through optical measurements using the LAI-2000 (LI-COR, Cambridge UK) and TRAC (Tracing Radiation and Architecture of Canopies). On average, measured maximum LAI was 3.40 in Laxemar and 3.43 in Forsmark; minimum LAI was 1.65 in Laxemar and 1.97 in Forsmark. Forest inventory data showed that LAI is positively correlated with basal area, stand height, stand volume and breast height tree diameter. For the coniferous stands, there was also a linearly negative relationship with age. In the Laxemar investigation area, there were no significant relationships for LAI with a satellite derived kNN (kNearest Neighbor) data set with stand height, stand volume and stand age. The kNN data set can therefore not be used to extrapolate measured LAI over the Laxemar investigation area. There were significant relationships between LAI and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for coniferous, deciduous and mixed forest stands in the Laxemar investigation area. A NDVI image could be used to extrapolate LAI over the entire investigation area. For the Forsmark investigation area, effective LAI for all stands were correlated to NDVI and this relationship could then be used for extrapolation. The effective LAI image was afterwards corrected for average

  19. A safety assessment approach using coupled NEAR3D and CHAN3D - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Longcheng; Moreno, Luis; Neretnieks, Ivars (Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Gylling, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    Safety assessment calculations for the Forsmark site were performed using a new code, which couples the far-field code CHAN3D and the near-field code NEAR3D. In addition, the package has a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a code that governs the simulations (Coupling). The simulations were performed for 90 different canister locations, which were randomly chosen. Deterministic data were used for tunnels, deposition holes, and shafts. The background fractures were stochastically generated in two HRD realizations. The F-ratio and the water travel time distributions were used to study the performance of the simulations. Near-field calculations were not performed for the Forsmark site using the new coded presented in the prevailing report. However, the obtained results in this study are compared with the results from the Task 2 model of the ConnectFlow report /Joyce et al. 2010/. Although the results cannot be compared directly, a reasonably good agreement is obtained for the F-ratio

  20. Calibration and analysis of soil carbon efflux estimates with closed chambers at Forsmark and Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tagesson, Torbern (Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (SE))

    2006-08-15

    to model soil carbon effluxes temporally. To make sure that the models give proper and accurate results it is necessary to evaluate them. First, it is necessary to investigate how close the models are to the field measured soil carbon effluxes. To check if this is reasonably close to the real soil carbon efflux value, the 95.6% confidence intervals of the models are needed. If the real value is within the 95.6% confidence interval of the model, this shows that the model makes a proper and accurate estimate to the real ecosystem carbon efflux. The models can then be used to estimate soil carbon effluxes in the Laxemar and the Forsmark investigation areas

  1. Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research

    CERN Document Server

    Lafuerza, Luis F; Edmonds, Bruce; McKane, Alan J

    2016-01-01

    Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to use simple models with few mechanisms that can be fully analysed, or to construct complicated models that include all the features which are thought relevant. The former ensures rigour, the latter relevance. We discuss a method that combines these two approaches, beginning with a complex model and then modelling the complicated model with simpler models. The resulting "chain" of models ensures some rigour and relevance. We illustrate this process on a complex model of voting intentions, constructing a reduced model which agrees well with the predictions of the full model. Experiments with variations of the simpler model yield additional insights which are hidden by the complexity of the full model. This approach facilitated collaboration between social scientists and physicists -- the complex model was specified based on the social science literature, and the simpler model constrained to agree (in core aspects) with...

  2. Solute transport in coupled inland-coastal water systems. General conceptualisation and application to Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jarsjoe, Jerker; Destouni, Georgia; Persson, Klas; Prieto, Carmen (Dept. of Physical Geography, Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2007-12-15

    We formulate a general theoretical conceptualisation of solute transport from inland sources to downstream recipients, considering main recipient load contributions from all different nutrient and pollutant sources that may exist within any catchment. Since the conceptualisation is model independent, its main hydrological factors and mass delivery factors can be quantified on the basis of inputs to and outputs from any considered analytical or numerical model. Some of the conceptually considered source contribution and transport pathway combinations are however commonly neglected in catchment-scale solute transport and attenuation modelling, in particular those related to subsurface sources, diffuse sources at the land surface and direct groundwater transport into the recipient. The conceptual framework provides a possible tool for clarification of underlying and often implicit model assumptions, which can be useful for e.g. inter-model comparisons. In order to further clarify and explain research questions that may be of particular importance for transport pathways from deep groundwater surrounding a repository, we concretise and interpret some selected transport scenarios for model conditions in the Forsmark area. Possible uncertainties in coastal discharge predictions, related to uncertain spatial variation of evapotranspiration within the catchment, were shown to be small for the relatively large, focused surface water discharges from land to sea, because local differences were averaged out along the length of the main water flow paths. In contrast, local flux values within the diffuse groundwater flow field from land to sea are more uncertain, although estimates of mean values and total sums of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) along some considerable coastline length may be robust. The present results show that 80% to 90% of the total coastal discharge of Forsmark occurred through focused flows in visible streams, whereas the remaining 10% to 20% was

  3. Solute transport in coupled inland-coastal water systems. General conceptualisation and application to Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jarsjoe, Jerker; Destouni, Georgia; Persson, Klas; Prieto, Carmen (Dept. of Physical Geography, Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2007-12-15

    We formulate a general theoretical conceptualisation of solute transport from inland sources to downstream recipients, considering main recipient load contributions from all different nutrient and pollutant sources that may exist within any catchment. Since the conceptualisation is model independent, its main hydrological factors and mass delivery factors can be quantified on the basis of inputs to and outputs from any considered analytical or numerical model. Some of the conceptually considered source contribution and transport pathway combinations are however commonly neglected in catchment-scale solute transport and attenuation modelling, in particular those related to subsurface sources, diffuse sources at the land surface and direct groundwater transport into the recipient. The conceptual framework provides a possible tool for clarification of underlying and often implicit model assumptions, which can be useful for e.g. inter-model comparisons. In order to further clarify and explain research questions that may be of particular importance for transport pathways from deep groundwater surrounding a repository, we concretise and interpret some selected transport scenarios for model conditions in the Forsmark area. Possible uncertainties in coastal discharge predictions, related to uncertain spatial variation of evapotranspiration within the catchment, were shown to be small for the relatively large, focused surface water discharges from land to sea, because local differences were averaged out along the length of the main water flow paths. In contrast, local flux values within the diffuse groundwater flow field from land to sea are more uncertain, although estimates of mean values and total sums of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) along some considerable coastline length may be robust. The present results show that 80% to 90% of the total coastal discharge of Forsmark occurred through focused flows in visible streams, whereas the remaining 10% to 20% was

  4. Mineralogy and geochemistry of rocks and fracture fillings from Forsmark and Oskarshamn: Compilation of data for SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, Henrik; Sandstroem, Bjoern [Isochron GeoConsulting HB, Goeteborg (Sweden); Tullborg, Eva-Lena [Terralogica AB, Graabo (Sweden)

    2006-11-15

    This report is a compilation of the so far available data for the safety assessment SR-Can carried out by SKB. The data consists of mineralogy, geochemistry, porosity, density and redox properties for both dominating rock types and fracture fillings at the Forsmark and Oskarshamn candidate areas. In addition to the compilation of existing information, the aim has been to identify missing data and to clarify some conception of e.g. deformation zones. The objective of the report is to present the available data requested for the modelling of the chemical stability of the two sites. The report includes no interpretation of the data.

  5. Modeling the three stages in HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A; Middleton, Richard H

    2013-03-07

    A typical HIV infection response consists of three stages: an initial acute infection, a long asymptomatic period and a final increase in viral load with simultaneous collapse in healthy CD4+T cell counts. The majority of existing mathematical models give a good representation of either the first two stages or the last stage of the infection. Using macrophages as a long-term active reservoir, a deterministic model is proposed to explain the three stages of the infection including the progression to AIDS. Simulation results illustrate how chronic infected macrophages can explain the progression to AIDS provoking viral explosion. Further simulation studies suggest that the proposed model retains its key properties even under moderately large parameter variations. This model provides important insights on how macrophages might play a crucial role in the long term behavior of HIV infection. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Discrete fracture network for the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darcel, C. [Itasca Consultants, Ecully (France); Davy, P.; Bour, O.; Dreuzy, J.R. de [Geosciences, Rennes (France)

    2006-08-15

    In this report, we aim at defining a self-consistent method for analyzing the fracture patterns from boreholes, outcrops and lineaments. The objective was both to point out some variations in the fracture network parameters, and to define the global scaling fracture models that can encompass all the constraints brought by the different datasets. Although a full description of the DFN model variability is obviously fundamental for the future, we have put emphasis on the determination of mean parameters. The main parameters of the disc-shaped DFN model are the fracture size, orientations and spatial density distribution. The scaling model is defined as an extrapolation of existing i) observations at specific scales and ii) local fitting models to the whole range of scales. The range of possible models is restricted to the power-law scaling models. During the project we have put emphasize on the definition of the theory and methodology necessary to assess a sound comparison between data taken at different scales, with different techniques. Both 'local' and 'global' models have been investigated. Local models are linked exactly to the dataset they represent. Then, the global DFN models arise from the association of local models, different scales and different sample support shapes. Discrepancies between local and global model illustrate the variability associated to the DFN models. We define two possible Global Scaling Models (GSM). The first one is consistent with the scaling measured in the outcrops (Model A). Its scaling exponent is a{sub 3d}=3.5 (eq. to k{sub r}=2.5); it overestimates the fracture densities observed in the lineament maps. The second one assumes that both lineaments and outcrops belong to the same distribution model (Model B), which entails a scaling exponent a{sub 3d}=3.9 (eq. to k{sub r}=2.9). Both models have been tested by looking for the best consistency in the fracture density-dip relationships, between boreholes data at

  7. SR-Site - sulphide content in the groundwater at Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tullborg, E-L (Terralogica (Sweden)); Smellie, J (Conterra (Sweden)); Nilsson, A-Ch (Geosigma (Sweden)); Gimeno, M J; Auque, LF (Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain)); Bruchert, V (Stockholms Universitet (Sweden)); Molinero, J (Amphos21 (Spain))

    2010-12-15

    Sulphide concentrations in groundwater play a key role in the long-term reliability of the metal canisters containing the radioactive waste within a disposal facility for nuclear waste. This is because sulphide in the groundwaters circulating in the vicinity of the deposition tunnels can react with copper in the canisters causing corrosion and therefore reducing their expected lifetime; in a worst case scenario erosion of the bentonite buffer material will expose the canister more rapidly to the fracture groundwater.Sulphide in the groundwater is predominantly microbially produced and thereby controlled by the content of oxidised sulphur sources, organics (carbon sources), reductants (mainly Fe(II), DOC, H{sub 2} and CH{sub 4}), and also flow and mixing of different groundwater types. In addition, achieved saturation in respect to amorphous Fe-monosulphide will control the possible maximum values and will also limit the Fe2+ and S2- values in the groundwater. The aim of this report is to assess realistic, representative and reliable sulphide groundwater concentrations at present conditions in Forsmark and also to evaluate possible changes during different climatic conditions covering the repository operation period (some tens to hundreds of years), post closure conditions (some thousand of years) and the proceeding temperate period (some tens of thousands of years) which may be extended due to enhanced greenhouse effects etc. It is expected that this period will be followed by the onset of the next glaciation during which periglacial (permafrost), glacial and postglacial conditions may succeed each other. To achieve these aims, an evaluation is performed of all the sulphide-related data reported from the Forsmark site investigations /Laaksoharju et al. 2008/ and later monitoring campaigns, all of which are stored in the Sicada database. This evaluation shows that values from the Complete Chemical Characterisation (CCC) sampling are usually lower than those measured

  8. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    simulations with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) and a state-of-the-art Earth System Model (ESM). To span the possible combinations of future orbital variations and possible future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, three sets of simulations were performed. The first set consists of a suite of EMIC simulations performed for the future periods of minimum summer insolation at high northern latitudes (17 ka and 54 ka AP) with the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration varying in the range 180 - 400 ppmv. These are equilibrium simulations with constant forcing conditions. The second set consists of two EMIC simulations with constant atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration of 200 or 400 ppmv respectively and insolation variations for the full period from the present to 61 ka AP. The third set of simulations consists of two ESM equilibrium simulations with insolation for 17ka and 54ka AP and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration set to 200 ppmv and 180 ppmv respectively. This set was used, in combination with published results from climate model inter-comparisons, to estimate the uncertainty in the EMIC results due to the simplified model formulation. The annual average bias-corrected air temperature at 2 m height (T2m) at Forsmark (with respect to observations) varies from 0.96 deg C to 5.3 deg C (1.6 deg C to 5.7 deg C) in the EMIC simulations for orbital year 17 ka AP (54 ka AP) when the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is varied from 180 ppmv to 400 ppmv. The insolation difference between orbital year 17 ka AP and 54 ka AP results in a difference in the annual average Forsmark T2m of c. 0.3 - 1.2 deg C with a tendency towards larger differences for lower atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that the future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is more important than insolation variations for future climate in Forsmark in the next 60 ka. The climate models used in the present study do not include glacier and ice sheet dynamics, which presents

  9. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    simulations with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) and a state-of-the-art Earth System Model (ESM). To span the possible combinations of future orbital variations and possible future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, three sets of simulations were performed. The first set consists of a suite of EMIC simulations performed for the future periods of minimum summer insolation at high northern latitudes (17 ka and 54 ka AP) with the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration varying in the range 180 - 400 ppmv. These are equilibrium simulations with constant forcing conditions. The second set consists of two EMIC simulations with constant atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration of 200 or 400 ppmv respectively and insolation variations for the full period from the present to 61 ka AP. The third set of simulations consists of two ESM equilibrium simulations with insolation for 17ka and 54ka AP and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration set to 200 ppmv and 180 ppmv respectively. This set was used, in combination with published results from climate model inter-comparisons, to estimate the uncertainty in the EMIC results due to the simplified model formulation. The annual average bias-corrected air temperature at 2 m height (T2m) at Forsmark (with respect to observations) varies from 0.96 deg C to 5.3 deg C (1.6 deg C to 5.7 deg C) in the EMIC simulations for orbital year 17 ka AP (54 ka AP) when the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is varied from 180 ppmv to 400 ppmv. The insolation difference between orbital year 17 ka AP and 54 ka AP results in a difference in the annual average Forsmark T2m of c. 0.3 - 1.2 deg C with a tendency towards larger differences for lower atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that the future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is more important than insolation variations for future climate in Forsmark in the next 60 ka. The climate models used in the present study do not include glacier and ice sheet dynamics, which presents

  10. Radon as a groundwater tracer in Forsmark and Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grolander, Sara

    2009-10-15

    Radon concentrations were measured in different water types in Forsmark and Laxemar during the site investigation and within this study. From these measurements it can be concluded that large differences between surface water, near surface groundwater and deep groundwater can be found in both Laxemar and Forsmark. The differences in radon concentrations between different water types are used in this study to detect interactions between surface water, near surface water and deep groundwater. From the radon measurements it can also be concluded that radon concentration in deep groundwater varies largely with depth. These variations with depth are probably caused by groundwater flow in conductive fracture zones in the bedrock. The focus of this study has been the radon concentration of near surface groundwater and the interaction between near surface groundwater and deep groundwater. Radon measurements have been done using the RAD-7 radon detector within this study. It could be concluded that RAD-7 is a good technique for radon measurements and also easy to use in field. The radon concentrations measured in near surface groundwater in Laxemar within this study were low and homogenous. The variation in radon concentration has been analyses and compared to other parameters. Since the hypothesis of this study has been that there are differences in radon concentrations between recharging and discharging groundwater, the most important parameter to consider is the recharge/discharge field classification of the wells. No correlation between the recharge/discharge classifications of wells and the radon concentrations were found. The lack of correlation between groundwater flow patterns and radon concentration means that it is not possible to detect flow patterns in near surface groundwater using radon as a tracer in the Laxemar area. The lack of correlation can be caused by the fact that there are just a few wells located in areas classified as recharge area. It can also be

  11. Soils and site types in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundin, Lars; Lode, Elve; Stendahl, Johan; Melkerud, Per-Arne; Bjoerkvald, Louise; Thorstensson, Anna [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Soils

    2004-01-01

    Investigations to give prerequisites for long-term storage of nuclear waste are made by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB AB). Ecosystem functions are crucial in this management. The range of the scope is wide including bedrock, regolith, hydrosphere and biosphere. The interface between deep geological formations and surface systems is then considered very important. This would be the top of the regolith, where soils are developed. Special attention has been paid to these layers with fairly comprehensive investigations. Field investigations were made for one of the candidate areas, the Forsmark area, in 2002 by the Department of Forest Soils, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. In these ecosystem functions, the upper part of the regolith is one crucial component and the focus in the investigations was on the upper metre of the soil. Variables determined include vegetation, hydrology, soil parent material, textural composition, soil type and physical and chemical properties of relevant soil layers. Methods used in the investigation coincide with those of the Swedish Forest Soil Inventory, which provide possibilities to compare properties in the Forsmark area with those of total Sweden and regions of the country. Soil properties were determined thoroughly on eight site types in two replicates to provide statistical significance. However, this meant that the investigation did not have a total spatial coverage. Instead, the spatial distribution of soils in the area was determined from a GIS based on the inventory made and information on vegetation types, distribution of Quaternary deposits and a hydrological index. From this GIS, distributions were compared with other parts of the country. The geographical location of the Forsmark area (N 60 deg 22 min; E 18 deg 13 min) is on the northeast coast of central Sweden bordering to the Bothnian Sea. The area is low-lying, reaching only up to 15 m above the sea, which means that the soils are

  12. Soils and site types in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundin, Lars; Lode, Elve; Stendahl, Johan; Melkerud, Per-Arne; Bjoerkvald, Louise; Thorstensson, Anna [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Soils

    2004-01-01

    Investigations to give prerequisites for long-term storage of nuclear waste are made by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB AB). Ecosystem functions are crucial in this management. The range of the scope is wide including bedrock, regolith, hydrosphere and biosphere. The interface between deep geological formations and surface systems is then considered very important. This would be the top of the regolith, where soils are developed. Special attention has been paid to these layers with fairly comprehensive investigations. Field investigations were made for one of the candidate areas, the Forsmark area, in 2002 by the Department of Forest Soils, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. In these ecosystem functions, the upper part of the regolith is one crucial component and the focus in the investigations was on the upper metre of the soil. Variables determined include vegetation, hydrology, soil parent material, textural composition, soil type and physical and chemical properties of relevant soil layers. Methods used in the investigation coincide with those of the Swedish Forest Soil Inventory, which provide possibilities to compare properties in the Forsmark area with those of total Sweden and regions of the country. Soil properties were determined thoroughly on eight site types in two replicates to provide statistical significance. However, this meant that the investigation did not have a total spatial coverage. Instead, the spatial distribution of soils in the area was determined from a GIS based on the inventory made and information on vegetation types, distribution of Quaternary deposits and a hydrological index. From this GIS, distributions were compared with other parts of the country. The geographical location of the Forsmark area (N 60 deg 22 min; E 18 deg 13 min) is on the northeast coast of central Sweden bordering to the Bothnian Sea. The area is low-lying, reaching only up to 15 m above the sea, which means that the soils are

  13. Input and turnover of forest tree litter in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mjoefors, Kristina; Johansson, Maj-Britt; Nilsson, Aake [Dept. of Forest Soi ls, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden); Hyvoenen, Riitta [Dept. of Eco logy, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)

    2007-04-15

    The site investigations reported here were conducted to provide data for the comprehensive descriptive ecosystem model that is being constructed. This report provides estimates of annual inputs of aboveground litter from trees (dry mass and amounts of C and N), litter decomposition rates and changes in organic and inorganic components in litter during decomposition. The study in the Forsmark area comprised two Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) stands (sites F1 and F3), and a mixed stand of Norway spruce and alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.) (site F2). The study in the Oskarshamn area comprised one common oak stand (Quercus robur L.) (site O1), one Scots pine stand (Pinus silvestris L.) (site O2) and one Norway spruce stand (site O3). In the Forsmark area, the aboveground litterfall from trees was of similar magnitude at sites F1 and F2, but considerably lower at site F3. At the former sites the average annual litterfall amounted to 195 and 231 gdw/m{sup 2} respectively, whereas the latter site received only 136 gdw/m{sup 2}. There was also a large variation in annual litterfall between stands in the Oskarshamn area. The spruce stand at site O3 exhibited the highest litterfall (almost 400 gdw/m{sup 2}), followed by the oak stand at site O1 (with almost 300 gdw/m{sup 2}), whereas the pine stand at site O2 had the lowest (less than 150 gdw/m{sup 2}). The proportion of needles/leaves in the total litterfall varied between 65% and 75% for the stands. The amount of carbon (C) returned in aboveground litterfall amounted to between 60 and 110 gdw/m{sup 2}/yr at the forest sites within the Forsmark area. The corresponding range for the sites in the Oskarshamn area was 70 to 190 gdw/m{sup 2}/yr. At sites O1 and O2 in Oskarshamn, about 3.6 gdw/m{sup 2}/yr of nitrogen (N) were returned annually to the forest floor by the aboveground litterfall. This was over four times the N amount deposited in the Scots pine stand in the same area (about 0.8 gdw/m{sup 2}/yr). At the

  14. Explorative analysis of major components and isotopes. SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smellie, John (Conterra AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Nilsson, Ann-Chatrin (Geosigma AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden)); Waber, Niklaus (Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)); Gimeno, Maria (Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain)); Gascoyne, Mel (GGP Inc. (United Kingdom))

    2008-09-15

    The overall objectives of the hydrogeochemical description for Forsmark are to establish a detailed understanding of the hydrogeochemical conditions at the site and to develop models that fulfil the needs identified by the safety assessment groups during the site investigation phase. Issues of concern to safety assessment are radionuclide transport and technical barrier behaviour, both of which are dependent on the chemistry of groundwater and pore water and their evolution with time. The work has involved the development of descriptive and mathematical models for groundwaters in relation to rock domains, fracture domains and deformation zones. Past climate events are the major driving force for hydrogeochemical changes and therefore are of fundamental importance for understanding the palaeohydrogeological, palaeohydrogeochemical and present evolution of groundwater in the crystalline bedrock of the Fennoscandian Shield. Understanding current undisturbed hydrochemical conditions at the proposed repository site is important when predicting future changes in groundwater chemistry. The causes behind copper corrosion and/or bentonite degradation are of particular interest as they may jeopardise the long-term integrity of the planned SKB repository system. Thus, the following variables are considered for the hydrogeochemical site descriptive modelling: pH, Eh, sulphur species, iron, manganese, carbonate, phosphate, nitrogen species, total dissolved solids (TDS), isotopes, colloids, fulvic and humic acids and microorganisms. In addition, dissolved gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and hydrogen) are of interest because of their likely participation in microbial reactions. In this series of reports, the final hydrogeochemical evaluation work of the site investigation at the Forsmark site, is presented. The work was conducted by SKB's hydrogeochemical project group, ChemNet, which consists of independent consultants and university researchers with expertise in

  15. Final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Underground design Forsmark, Layout D1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brantberger, Martin; Zetterqvist, Anders [Ramboell Sweden AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Torben [Ramboell Denmark A/S, Virum (Denmark); Olsson, Tommy [IandT Olsson AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Outters, Nils [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Syrjaenen, Pauli [Gridpoint Oy, Helsinki (Sweden)

    2006-04-15

    This report comprises the design step D1 related to the underground design for a deep repository located at the Forsmark site. The design is based on the Site Descriptive Model Forsmark v1.2. All studies have been focussed at an area southeast of the Forsmark nuclear plant, which has been considered to be the most promising area for hosting the repository. SKB has developed guidelines for the design of the repository, which further describes the methodology applied for the studies. From these guidelines the following basic objectives for the design step D1 are summarized: to determine whether the final repository can be accommodated within the studied site; to identify site-specific facility critical issues; to test and evaluate the design methodology; to provide feedback to: the design organisation regarding additional studies that needs to be done; the site investigation and modelling organization regarding further investigations required; and the safety assessment team. The possible locations for a tentative deep repository are analysed in Chapter 3 of the report. The most promising area for the repository (denoted 'priority site') has been defined by SKB to be located southeast of the Forsmark nuclear plant and northwest of the gently dipping deformation zone ZFMNE00A2. Regarding the repository depth, present knowledge acquired from the site investigations indicates that it is possible to locate the repository at all stipulated depths according to SKB, that is between 400 m and 700 m depth. The preliminary assessment made in Chapter 3 clearly demonstrates that the repository can be accommodated within the 'priority site'. The potential to accommodate the repository is essentially the same for both 400 m and 500 m depths. The design of the deposition areas is reported in Chapter 4, which includes the design of layout features for all tunnels and deposition holes, orientation of tunnels, calculation of anticipated loss of deposition holes due

  16. Two-Stage Modelling Of Random Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barańska, Anna

    2015-12-01

    The main objective of this publication was to present a two-stage algorithm of modelling random phenomena, based on multidimensional function modelling, on the example of modelling the real estate market for the purpose of real estate valuation and estimation of model parameters of foundations vertical displacements. The first stage of the presented algorithm includes a selection of a suitable form of the function model. In the classical algorithms, based on function modelling, prediction of the dependent variable is its value obtained directly from the model. The better the model reflects a relationship between the independent variables and their effect on the dependent variable, the more reliable is the model value. In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed which comprises adjustment of the value obtained from the model with a random correction determined from the residuals of the model for these cases which, in a separate analysis, were considered to be the most similar to the object for which we want to model the dependent variable. The effect of applying the developed quantitative procedures for calculating the corrections and qualitative methods to assess the similarity on the final outcome of the prediction and its accuracy, was examined by statistical methods, mainly using appropriate parametric tests of significance. The idea of the presented algorithm has been designed so as to approximate the value of the dependent variable of the studied phenomenon to its value in reality and, at the same time, to have it "smoothed out" by a well fitted modelling function.

  17. Forsmark site investigation. Programme for long-term observations of geosphere and biosphere after completed site investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    The site investigation at Forsmark was terminated the last of June, 2007. Hundreds of investigations have been conducted during a period of more than five years. Monitoring of a number of geoscientific parameters and biological objects has been one important part of the site investigation programme. Monitoring is defined as recurrent measurements of the same parameters/objects, so that time series are generated. Long-term monitoring of for example weather parameters, surface water discharge in brooks, and the groundwater head in a large number of boreholes has been conducted during the site investigations. Furthermore, repeated sampling of precipitation, surface water and groundwater in soil and rock for hydrochemical analyses has been carried out, and the groundwater flow in isolated borehole sections has been measured several times. Besides, some biological objects, for example rare bird species, have been invented each year of the site investigation. The measured parameters and the invented objects are characterized by a certain degree of time dependent variability, which is also site-specific. The aim of the monitoring is primarily to establish the 'undisturbed' conditions, the so called 'baseline'. If a deep repository is sited at Forsmark, many site-specific conditions will change, due to natural causes as well as to the construction works. Knowledge about the undisturbed conditions strengthens the ability to reveal and quantify such changes and to distinguish natural changes from those caused by the human activities. Another object of monitoring is to, by the study of the variability pattern of the monitored parameters, elevate the knowledge about the underlying, often complex causes governing the variations. In this way the description of site-specific conditions may be more precise and the prospects of modelling important processes are improved. After completion of the site investigations, a period of about two years will follow, when

  18. Forsmark site investigation. Hydrochemical investigations in four calciferous lakes in the Forsmark area. Results from the second year of a complementary investigation in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qvarfordt, Susanne; Borgiel, Micke [Sveriges Vattenekologer AB, Vingaaker (Sweden); Berg, Cecilia [Geosigma AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2011-12-15

    The present report documents the results from the second year of hydrochemical investigations in four small, calciferous lakes in the Forsmark area in order to study the lake water compositions. The construction of a permanent storage facility for used nuclear fuel may result in a lowering of the ground water level and also lake surface water levels. Restoration of habitats by adding water may be an option to reduce possible negative consequences induced by a lower water level on biodiversity and valuable species. Thus, knowledge of the water composition is needed. This report presents the results from six sampling occasions during January to December 2010. The results from the sampling of the four lakes includes field measurements of redox potential (ORP), pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, salinity, depth, atmospheric pressure, turbidity, chlorophyll and water temperature, as well as chemical analyses of major constituents and nutrient salts. The four investigated small lakes are well buffered with high alkalinity, high pH and high calcium concentrations. This is in accordance with results from the ongoing monitoring programme of lakes and streams in the area and with the results from the previous sampling period (2008-2009). The results show both seasonal and inter-annual variation in the analysed parameters. This can be explained by seasonal changes and annual differences in temperature, ice-cover, precipitation etc and lake specific parameters such as lake size and drainage area. The variation highlights the importance of both year round sampling and continued sampling for several years when discussing the water composition.

  19. Greenland Analogue Project - Hydraulic properties of deformation zones and fracture domains at Forsmark, Laxemar and Olkiluoto for usage together with Geomodel version 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden)); Stigsson, Martin (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (Sweco Environment AB (Sweden)); Engstroem, Jon (Geologian tutkimuskeskus (Finland)); Klint, Knut Erik (De Nationale Geologiske Undersoegelser for Danmark og Groenland (Denmark))

    2011-05-15

    The database of the GAP site is under development. In order to meet the data needs of the different modelling teams working with groundwater flow modelling it has been decided to compile trial data sets comprising structural-hydraulic properties suitable for flow modelling on different scales. The properties provided in this report are based on data and groundwater flow modelling studies conducted for three sites located in the Fennoscandian Shield, two of which are studied by SKB, Forsmark and Laxemar, and one by Posiva, Olkiluoto. The provided hydraulic properties provided here are simplified to facilitate a readily usage together with the GAP Geomodel version 1.

  20. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Juston, John [DBE Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The results from the investigations at the sites are used as a basic input to the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDM). The SDM shall summarise the current state of knowledge of the site, and provide parameters and models to be used in further analyses within Safety Assessment, Repository Design and Environmental Impact Assessment. The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 'data freeze' (July 31, 2004). The groundwater is very shallow, with groundwater levels within one meter below ground as an annual mean for almost all groundwater monitoring wells. Also, the annual groundwater level amplitude is less than 1.5 m for most wells. The shallow groundwater levels mean that there is a strong interaction between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater. In the modelling, surface water and near-surface groundwater divides are assumed to coincide. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The observed differences in levels are not fully consistent with the good hydraulic contact between overburden and bedrock indicated by the hydraulic tests in the Quaternary deposits. However, the relatively lower groundwater levels in the bedrock may be caused by the horizontal to sub-horizontal highly

  1. Time-Limited Psychotherapy: An Interactional Stage Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Terence J.

    One model of successful time-limited psychotherapy characterizes the therapy as a movement through three interactional stages: the early rapport attainment stage, the middle conflict stage, and the final resolution stage. According to this model, these stages are indicated by the relative presence of communicational harmony. To examine the…

  2. Forsmark site investigation. Investigation of marine and lacustrine sediment in lakes. Field data 2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedenstroem, Anna [SGU, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2003-04-01

    The aim of this activity is to describe the aerial and stratigraphical distribution of marine and lacustrine sediment i.e. sediment overlaying the glacial till and/or bedrock surface, in lakes in the Forsmark area. The investigation is carried out within areas where mapping of unconsolidated Quaternary deposits is presently carried out. Since small and shallow lakes cover a large part of the region, this work will give important information on the distribution and stratigraphy of sedimentary deposits not included in the regular mapping of unconsolidated Quaternary deposits within the site investigation programme. Samples were also collected for laboratory analyses of grain size distribution, mineralogical composition as well as the total content of C, N and S and calcium carbonate. The analyses will be carried out on selected samples of representative sedimentary units in order to characterise the chemical and physical properties of the unconsolidated deposits. The analytical data will be useful for the hydrogeological modelling and for models of the Quaternary evolution of the area. The mineralogical analyses of clay may provide information on the origin of the clay particles. One stratigraphic sequence from Lake Eckarfjaerden will be stored for later analyses, e.g. pollen analysis. This report includes field data from spring 2003. Together, the field data and the forthcoming results from the laboratory analyses will form the basis for construction of stratigraphical profiles to be presented in a following report in the fall 2003.

  3. Full waveform inversion of seismic reflection data from the Forsmark planned repository for spent nuclear fuel, eastern central Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengjiao; Juhlin, Christopher

    2014-02-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has been carrying out extensive studies at the planned repository for spent nuclear fuel at the Forsmark site in the eastern part of central Sweden since 2002. Identification of subhorizontal to gently dipping seismic reflections is especially important since these may represent transport routes for radionuclides. Studies have shown that such reflections can be generated by water filled fracture zones that have a lower velocity than the surrounding bedrock. Lithological changes, that is, mafic sills, may also be responsible for reflections in some cases. At the Forsmark site, it is difficult to distinguish fracture zones from mafic sills in the standard reflection seismic processed sections. However, since mafic sills usually have a positive velocity contrast with the background velocity field compared to fractures zones that have a negative one, the two possibilities could be differentiated if we could reconstruct the underground velocity field. Seismic full waveform inversion has the potential to perform this reconstruction, allowing us to discriminate between fractures zones and mafic sills. In this study, we apply a 2-D waveform inversion code on crooked line data sets acquired at the Forsmark site. This implies we are dealing with a 3-D geometry. We handle this problem by applying 3-D to 2-D coordinate projections. First, we perform a synthetic benchmark test with a similar geometry to that of the projected real data. We test both amplitude and phase inversion and phase only inversion on the synthetic data. The results show that the phase only inversion has fewer artefacts and is more stable. After successful application on the synthetic data, we apply the phase only waveform inversion on the real data. The resulting velocity fields show more details compared with the starting model based on first arrival traveltime tomography. Time domain synthetic data sets generated from the final velocity fields

  4. Chemical characteristics of surface waters in the Forsmark area. Evaluation of data from lakes, streams and coastal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sonesten, Lars [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Assessment

    2005-06-01

    lakes, i.e. they have low nutrient levels, whereas the amount of dissolved ions is very high. The primary production is dominated by benthic Stoneworths (Charales) and by cyanobacteria in the surficial lake sediments. This kind of lakes is typical for the coastal areas of the Uppsala county, which comparatively recently has emerged from the Baltic Sea. Additionally, the streams in the Forsmark area, which also are small, are often partially dry during summer. The water chemical composition in the freshwater systems is to a large extent affected by marine deposits from the latest glaciation period. In addition, intrusions of brackish water are more or less frequent in the lower stretches of some catchment areas. This area is comparatively young and the altitude is low, which implicates that some lakes are still in their latest stages of separation from the Baltic Sea. Contrastingly, some of the coastal sampling sites, mainly in the bay Kallrigafjaerden, are heavily affected by inflowing freshwater, which e.g. dilute the sodium and chloride content typical for marine environments. The main conclusion from the investigations of the coastal sites is that the water in the bay Kallrigafjaerden is largely affected by inflowing freshwater. This inflow dilute e.g. 'marine' ions like sodium, chloride, and bromide, whereas the concentration of other substances like TOC is elevated, as the level in freshwater is considerably higher. The other two coastal sites possess a fairly stable chemical composition, except from occasional inflow of water from melting snow or ice.

  5. Dissolved inorganic carbon and organic carbon in mires in the Forsmark area. A pilot study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

    2011-12-15

    Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are the large dissolved carbon pools in mires. They are both related to a number of factors such as groundwater flow, minerogenic influence and peat properties, which all are more or less related to peatland development stage. In a scenario of a release of radionuclides from an underground repository containing radioactive material, behaviour of these pools during the mire ontogeny will be of importance for the understanding of how C-14 will constitute a potential risk to humans and non-human biota. In this pilot study, DIC and DOC concentrations were investigated for three mires representing a potential sequence of peatland development in a coastal area at Forsmark in central Sweden characterized by land upheaval, a flat topography and calcareous content in the soil. The mires where chosen based on difference in height above the sea level, covering approximate 1000 years, and characteristics based on their vegetation. Water samples were collected during August from all three mires at two different depths in the anoxic layer of the mires, by extracting water from peat obtained with a peat corer. DIC concentrations where related to the age of the mires, with the lowest concentrations in the highest located mire. There was a positive correlation between pH and DIC, where the higher DIC concentrations were found in the 'richer' fens. DIC concentrations were also positively related to the conductivity within and between the mires, where conductivity would be a proxy for the dominating cation Ca{sup 2+} associated to the calcareous-influenced groundwater. DOC concentrations were highest in the oldest mire, but were similar in the younger mires. No patterns were found between DIC and DOC, and the peat bulk density. The report ends with suggestions on how a continued study could be improved.

  6. Surveys of mammal populations in the areas adjacent to Forsmark and Tierp. A pilot study 2001-2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cederlund, Goeran; Hammarstroem, Angelica; Wallin, Kjell [Svensk Viltfoervaltning AB, Ramsberg (Sweden)

    2003-04-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for the deep-level repository of radioactive waste. SKB has expressed the importance of monitoring mammal species that are of interest both in biodiversity issues and for local hunting and recreational purposes. To get relevant data on the dynamics of the mammal populations it is important to estimate the abundance and variations over time. Data achieved can be used to specifically monitor endangered species (like wolf, Canis lupus, and otter, Lutra lutra), detect effects from e.g. drilling activities on populations (important to hunters) and be used for assessment programs (MKB). One of the major goals is to monitor populations over several years and to obtain information that is essential for modelling of energy/carbon flows in the biosphere and ultimately calculations of the risks of exposure to radionuclide. From late 2001 to late spring 2002 a pilot study was accomplished in the areas surrounding the suggested areas in the Tierp region and in Forsmark (Oskarshamn was not included in this pilot study). A reference area was chosen near the coast some 20 km north of Forsmark. The aim was to initiate surveys of most of the larger mammal species that were expected to be found in the region. Selected species were wolf, lynx, otter, marten, mink, red fox, beaver, wild boar, red deer, roe deer, moose, European hare and mountain hare. Several methods were used and adapted to expected habitat use and expected local density of the species. Line transects were used on snow to index (frequency of tracks crossing the transects) or calculate actual number (for example the Buffon method). Pellet counts were used in spring to calculate hare and cervid (moose and deer species) density. In mid winter an aerial (helicopter) survey was conducted along the coast to count moose. The aquatic mammals were tracked on snow along selected parts of the streams and

  7. Sediment dynamics in the coastal areas of Forsmark and Laxemar during an interglacial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Radionuclides dissolved in groundwater that reach the sea bottom from below may bind to fine grained particles. When a nuclide binds to an immovable particle in the sea sediment, further transport may cease; however, if the nuclide binds to a moveable particle it may be repeatedly suspended, transported, and re-deposited. Whether the nuclide binds to a moveable or immovable particle determines the type of biota it encounters. Therefore, it is of great value to understand how bottom types are spread in the sea close to a proposed repository and how the distribution of these bottoms have changed over time, in order to predict what may happen if a nuclide leaks from a repository. In the coastal areas of Forsmark and Laxemar, the sediment dynamics have been modelled for the period between 9500 BC and 9500 AD. The model is based on a wave model (STWAVE) included in the program package from SMS (Surface Water Modelling System). A sediment resuspension module was developed and is presented in this report. The model inputs are weather data (wind direction and wind speed) and bathymetry. The bathymetry is in a regular grid structure. The wave model is separated into two steps. The first is an outer model with coarse resolution (1000 m) that represents the whole Baltic Sea. This outer model gives border conditions to an inner model with higher resolution (100 m) that represents the coastal areas close to Forsmark and Laxemar. The outputs from the wave model are wave height, wave period and water depth for each cell in the model domains. A new program module, written in VisualBasic, reads the results from the wave module and calculates the maximum wave generated water velocity close to the sea bottom, and the maximum resuspendable grain size at that water velocity based on a semi-empirical relationship. The model is run with a time step of 500 years. Since the bathymetry is changing over time due to the positive shore displacement, a sub-model for the Baltic Sea evolution has

  8. Chemistry data from surface ecosystems in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site specific data used for estimation of CR and K{sub d} values in SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Norden, Sara (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to compile information from the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp sites in order to select and provide relevant site data for parameter sed in the Radionuclide Dose Model. This report contains an overview of all available chemistry data from the surface ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, comprising hydrochemistry of shallow groundwater, porewater, lake water, stream water and sea water as well as the chemical composition of the regolith and biota of the terrestrial, limnic and marine ecosystems. Detailed references to data reports are tabulated and all sampling points are shown in a large number of maps in Chapter 2. An explorative analysis in Chapter 3 is the basis for the final selection of site data described in Chapter 4

  9. Mammals in the areas adjacent to Forsmark and Oskarshamn. Population density, ecological data and carbon budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Truve, Johan; Cederlund, Goeran [Svensk Naturfoervaltning AB, Ramsberg (Sweden)

    2005-06-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is in the process of selecting a safe and environmentally acceptable location for the deep-level repository of radioactive waste. SKB has expressed the importance of monitoring mammal species that are of interest both in biodiversity issues and for local hunting and recreational purposes. Two of the major goals are to: 1) monitor dynamics of population density over several years; 2) obtain information that is essential for modelling of energy/carbon flows in the biosphere and ultimately calculations of the risks of exposure to radionuclides. This report contributes to the major goals by presenting: Results from surveys of mammal abundance in the study sites near Forsmark and Oskarshamn, and a comparison with data from other surveys. A summary of traits associated to demography, resource selection and spatial distribution. A model framework that can be used to model the future development of populations. A plausible future scenario for mammal species. Mammal contribution to fluxes of energy and material in the ecosystem. Estimated harvest rates of mammals in the study sites. General conclusions that can be drawn from the survey are that population densities of the most common species are in the same range as many other populations. Lynx, wild boar, red deer and fallow deer are expanding in the areas. Marine mammals have not been surveyed but at least grey seals are important top consumers in the coastal ecosystem. Red listed species resident in the areas are Lynx, Otter, Whiskered bat, Natterer's bat, Nathusius' pipistrelle and Harbour seal. Annual production of the mammal species that were surveyed was 40-50 mg carbon/m2 and year. Hunters harvest nearly half of the production each year. Future developments for the populations are briefly discussed and a model framework that can be used to make better quantitative predictions is presented.

  10. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  11. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  12. Impact assessment of the impact on nature values of the construction and operation of the repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark; Konsekvensbedoemning av paaverkan paa naturvaerden av anlaeggande och drift av slutfoervar foer anvaent kaernbraensle i Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allmer, Johan (Ekologigruppen AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2011-03-15

    Construction and operation of a repository at Soederviken in Forsmark, Oesthammar municipality means impact, effects and consequences for the environment. This report describes the natural conditions and natural values in Forsmark with particular focus on Soederviken. Furthermore, an assessment of consequences for the natural environment in the development and operation of a repository at Soederviken. Assessment of impacts from water activities are treated in a special report.

  13. Long-term safety for KBS-3 repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar - a first evaluation. Main Report of the SR-Can project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedin, Allan (ed.)

    2006-10-15

    This document is the main report from the safety assessment project SR-Can. The SR-Can project is a preparatory stage for the SR-Site assessment, the report that will be used in support of SKB's application for a final repository. The purposes of the safety assessment SR-Can are the following: 1. To make a first assessment of the safety of potential KBS-3 repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar to dispose of canisters as specified in the application for the encapsulation plant. 2. To provide feedback to design development, to SKB's RandD programme, to further site investigations and to future safety assessment projects. 3. To foster a dialogue with the authorities that oversee SKB's activities, i.e. the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, SSI, regarding interpretation of applicable regulations, as a preparation for the SR-Site project. The assessment relates to the KBS-3 disposal concept in which copper canisters with a cast iron insert containing spent nuclear fuel are surrounded by bentonite clay and deposited at approximately 500 m depth in saturated, granitic rock. Preliminary data from the Forsmark and Laxemar sites, presently being investigated by SKB as candidates for a KBS-3 repository are used in the assessment. An important aim of this report is to demonstrate the proper handling of requirements placed on the safety assessment in applicable regulations. Therefore, regulations issued by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute are reproduced in an Appendix where references are given to sections in the main text where the handling of the different requirements is discussed. The principal acceptance criterion requires that 'the annual risk of harmful effects after closure does not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk'. 'Harmful effects' refer to cancer and hereditary effects

  14. Quantitative mapping and statistical evaluation of fracture minerals in the granitic bedrock at Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfgren, Martin; Sidborn, Magnus

    2016-10-01

    This article provides quantitative data on occurrences and amounts of fracture minerals that coat discrete fractures in granitic rock at the Forsmark site in Sweden. The data are useful for retardation modelling of radionuclide and other contaminants, and for groundwater composition calculations. In a unique campaign, 2071 open fractures in groundwater conducting rock have been mapped with respect to chlorite, calcite, and pyrite. In total 767 m of drill core has been studied from very shallow rock down to ~1000 m depth. The occurrences of fracture minerals, their thicknesses, and their fractions of surface coverage have been recorded for up to eight layers for each fracture. Detection limits are, for each layer, 0.1 mm for the thickness and 1 % for the surface coverage, except for pyrite crystals where surface coverages down to 0.01 % are detectable. The abundance of data has permitted statistical treatment, using parametric and non-parametric methods. Parametric fittings have been made to log-normal, truncated log-normal, and beta distributions. Chlorite, calcite, and pyrite were found in 57 %, 52 %, and 10 % of all mapped fractures, respectively. The fracture mineral thickness was 0.1 mm for calcite, 0.2 mm for chlorite, and 2 μm for pyrite, as averaged over the fracture surface area. For 50 % and 99 % of all fractures the total fracture coating thickness was less than 0.1 mm and 1 mm, respectively, which is important for diffusion resistance estimates. Average surface coverages were 18 % for calcite, 38 % for chlorite, and 0.5 % for pyrite. These data may be used for calculating the reaction capacity of flow paths.

  15. Repository for spent nuclear fuel. Plant description layout D - Forsmark; Slutfoervarsanlaeggning foer anvaent kaernbraensle. Anlaeggningsbeskrivning layout D - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-07-15

    This document describes the final repository for spent nuclear fuel, SFK, which is located at Forsmark, in Oesthammar. The bedrock at the site is part of a so-called tectonic lens, in which the rock composition is relatively homogeneous and less deformed than outside the lens. The bedrock consists mainly of granite with high quartz content and good thermal conductivity. The central parts above ground are grouped in an operations area, located at the Soederviken on the south side of the intake duct for cooling water for nuclear power plant. Operating area is divided into an internal, secured portion, where the canisters of fuel are handled and there are links to the underground part, and a outer part, where the buffer, backfill and sealing used in the repository's barriers are produced. The above-ground part of the plant and also include storage of excavated rock, ventilation stations, and supplies of bentonite. The underground portion consists of a central area and a storage area. Caverns of the central area contain features for the underground operation. It communicates with the internal operating range above ground via a spiral ramp and several shafts. The ramp used to transport capsules of spent fuel and other heavy or bulky transport. The shafts are used to transport rock, buffer, backfill and staff, as well as for ventilation. The largest part of the space below ground is the repository where the canisters with the spent fuel are disposed. The capsules are deposited in vertical holes in the tunnels. When the deposit in a tunnel is complete, the tunnel is re-filled. The two main activities underground is rock work and disposal work, which are conducted separately from each other. Rock works covers all steps required to excavate tunnels and drill deposition holes, as well as to make temporary installations in the tunnels. To the landfill works count, besides the deposit of the capsule, the placement of the bentonite buffer in the deposition hole and

  16. Forsmark site investigation. Detailed ground magnetic survey and lineament interpretation in the Forsmark area, 2006-2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksson, Hans; Thunehed, Hans; Pitkaenen, Timo; Keisu, Mikael (GeoVista AB, Luleaa (SE))

    2007-12-15

    The report presents detailed ground magnetic measurements carried out on an 11.1 km2 area in the Forsmark site investigation area. The main objective of this activity is to determine a detailed ground magnetic representation of the bedrock. The results from previous surveys were encouraging and have led to a broad geophysical programme for investigation of lineaments at Forsmark. This report comprises the results from the second and final phase of the extended survey programme and a compilation and summary of all phases in the programme. On ground and on lake ice, a grid with parallel lines was staked. Measurements of the magnetic total field were carried out along profiles, perpendicular to the staked lines, with a profile spacing of 10 m and a station spacing of 5 m. Measurements on the ice-covered sea bays were carried out by a two man crew. One crew member walked along the survey lines, carrying a RTK-GPS guiding the other crew member who measured the magnetic total field. No seaborne survey was carried out in the final phase. Previously, using a high accuracy RTK-GPS unit for boat navigation gave a seaborne survey grid of on average 10 m line spacing and 2-3 m station spacing. In total 427,238 magnetic survey stations have been measured and an area of 4.7 km2 has been surveyed from boat. The magnetic pattern in the survey area can be divided into six main areas with different magnetic character. Along the southwest margin of the survey area the magnetic pattern is intensely banded with rapidly changing low and highly magnetic bands striking southeast-northwest, which to the northeast changes to a gentler, banded pattern of low to moderate magnetic intensity. To the northeast, at the SFR office and along the coastline to the southeast, the pattern is again intensely banded with, southeast-northwest trending, rapidly changing low and highly magnetic bands. These two banded structures probably forms fold limbs of a common fold with a northwest oriented fold axis

  17. Forsmark site investigation. Detailed ground magnetic survey and lineament interpretation in the Forsmark area, 2006-2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksson, Hans; Thunehed, Hans; Pitkaenen, Timo; Keisu, Mikael (GeoVista AB, Luleaa (SE))

    2007-12-15

    The report presents detailed ground magnetic measurements carried out on an 11.1 km2 area in the Forsmark site investigation area. The main objective of this activity is to determine a detailed ground magnetic representation of the bedrock. The results from previous surveys were encouraging and have led to a broad geophysical programme for investigation of lineaments at Forsmark. This report comprises the results from the second and final phase of the extended survey programme and a compilation and summary of all phases in the programme. On ground and on lake ice, a grid with parallel lines was staked. Measurements of the magnetic total field were carried out along profiles, perpendicular to the staked lines, with a profile spacing of 10 m and a station spacing of 5 m. Measurements on the ice-covered sea bays were carried out by a two man crew. One crew member walked along the survey lines, carrying a RTK-GPS guiding the other crew member who measured the magnetic total field. No seaborne survey was carried out in the final phase. Previously, using a high accuracy RTK-GPS unit for boat navigation gave a seaborne survey grid of on average 10 m line spacing and 2-3 m station spacing. In total 427,238 magnetic survey stations have been measured and an area of 4.7 km2 has been surveyed from boat. The magnetic pattern in the survey area can be divided into six main areas with different magnetic character. Along the southwest margin of the survey area the magnetic pattern is intensely banded with rapidly changing low and highly magnetic bands striking southeast-northwest, which to the northeast changes to a gentler, banded pattern of low to moderate magnetic intensity. To the northeast, at the SFR office and along the coastline to the southeast, the pattern is again intensely banded with, southeast-northwest trending, rapidly changing low and highly magnetic bands. These two banded structures probably forms fold limbs of a common fold with a northwest oriented fold axis

  18. Quality control of GPS deformation data from Forsmark and analysis of crustal deformation in the local scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekman, Lennart; Ekman, Mats [LE Geokonsult AB, Baelinge (Sweden)

    2013-03-15

    A network comprising seven GPS stations was established at Forsmark, Sweden, within about 10 km radius from the centre of the investigation area for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel with the purpose of monitoring slow rock motion. During the period November 2005 to December 2009, GPS data were collected in eighteen intermittent measurement campaigns, each with a duration of between three and seven days. As shown in Gustafson and Ljungberg (2010), the data expose a considerable scatter, indicating a non-linear variability of the GPS baseline velocities. However, the commission narrated in Gustafson and Ljungberg (2010) was restricted to account only for the field performance of the GPS measurement campaign and to present the resulting measurement data per se, merely supplemented with a linear regression solution for the baseline motions. The preliminary interpretation of GPS data in Gustafson and Ljungberg (2010) was in the present report followed by a closer examination where the non-linear variability is modelled as sinusoidal. Evidence for sinusoidal variations were also found in resulting data from GPS measurements at the Aespoe/Laxemar area at Oskarshamn (Sjoeberg et al. 2004), as well as in GPS data from several sites in western, middle and north-eastern Finland (Ollikainen et al. 2004, Ahola et al. 2008, Poutanen et al. 2010). We here postulate that the baseline velocities are characterized by a long-term linear drift superposed by a non-linear sinusoidal motion. This was modelled in two steps. Initially an Auto Regressive (AR) model was applied and the linear trends between the GPS stations were estimated. In a second step, an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model was estimated for (almost) all baselines. The residuals between the original data and the one-step predictor for the ARMA model were then used to estimate new linear trends for the baselines. Our analysis of the Forsmark GPS data indicates relative motions more than 10 times slower

  19. A stage-based model of design teaching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, Sofie

    2014-01-01

    With a focus on the teaching of design students in higher education, the article will present a teaching approach model that follows the stages of the design process. The model suggests that at the Definition stage, the supervisor can focus on leading the student into a more thorough elaboration...

  20. STAGES OF A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela – Lavinia CIOBANICA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the literature dedicated to strategic management there is no unitary vision of the authors regarding the sequence of actions that give content to the respective process and what their stages are. With all existing differences, the visions of different authors nevertheless observe the unitary logic of developing a series of actions. These actions begin with the competitive environment analysis in which the organization operates and with the establishment of its strategic mission and they end with the performance evaluation after the strategy has been applied and, if appropriate, with the reconsidering of this strategy and the making of the necessary corrections to it. Such a basic structure of the process is adopted in most organizations that practice the strategic management. But noticeable differences appear in the degree of the formalization of the process and in the involvement of different managerial levels in the designing and detailing of its components.

  1. Possibilities Of Opening Up the Stage-Gate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biljana Stošić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents basic elements of the Stage-Gate and Open innovation models, and possible connection of these two, resulting in what is frequently called an “Open Stage-Gate” model. This connection is based on opening up the new product development process and integration of the open innovation principles with the Stage-Gate concept, facilitating the import and export of information and technologies. Having in mind that the Stage Gate has originally been classified as the third generation model of innovation, the paper is dealing with the capabilities for applying the sixth generation Open innovation principles in today’s improved and much more flexible phases and gates of the Stage Gate. Lots of innovative companies are actually using both models in their NPD practice, looking for the most appropriate means of opening up the well-known closed innovation, especially in the domain of ideation through co-creation.

  2. Vegetation mapping with satellite data of the Forsmark and Tierp regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boresjoe-Bronge, Laine; Wester, Kjell [SwedPower, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2002-04-01

    SKB (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co) performs a siting program for deep repository of spent nuclear fuel that includes survey of three potential sites. The SKB siting process has now reached the site investigation phase. There are several fields of investigations performed in this phase. One of them is description of the surface ecosystems. The surface ecosystems are mapped both on a regional (50-100 km{sup 2} ) and a local level (1 km{sup 2} ). Two inventory methods are used, remote sensing (satellite data/aerial photographs) for the regional level, and field inventory for the detailed level. As a part of the surface ecosystem characterisation on the regional level vegetation mapping using satellite data has been performed over the three potential deep depository sites, Forsmark, Tierp and Oskarshamn. The user requirements for the vegetation mapping of the potential sites are the following: Dominated species in the tree layer, shrub layer, field layer and ground layer shall be described both on regional and local level; Dominated species in all layers shall be quantified regarding share and percentage of ground cover, or absence of cover (vegetation free ground); The regional and the local inventory shall have identical or comparable classification systems; The classification system and the method used shall make it possible to scale the results from local to regional level and vice versa; The produced layers shall be presented in digital form and make it possible to model biomass and turnover of organic matter (carbon, nutrients, water); The produced information shall in a first phase be of use for planning and for making nature and environmental considerations. Data sources used in the study include geo-referenced SPOT4 XI data (20 m ground resolution), geo-referenced Landsat TM data (30 m ground resolution), soil type data, topographic map data and colour infrared aerial photographs. The production of vegetation layers has been carried out in two

  3. Uptake of elements by fungi in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johanson, Karl J.; Nikolova, Ivanka; Taylor, Andy F.S. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Mycology and Pathology; Vinichuk, Mykhaylo M. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Soil Sciences

    2004-10-01

    Samples were collected in a forest ecosystem close to the Nuclear Power Plant at Forsmark, Sweden. The soil was fractioned in bulk soil, rhizosphere, soil-root interface and fungal mycelium. At the same sampling sites, fruit bodies of fungi were also collected. The concentration (mg/kg dw of soil) of K, Rb, Cs, P, Ca, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr, Cd, I, Hg, Pb, Ra, Th and U, were analysed in the various fractions using microspectrometry. The concentration of the stable potassium, rubidium and cesium in forest soil as well as in fungal compartment is discussed first and than the other 17 elements is discussed. Compared to bulk soil, rhizosphere was enriched with K, Rb and Cs by a factor 1.3, 1.7 and 1.5, and soil-root interface by factor 5.4, 2.6 and 1.0. Concentration of K, Rb and Cs was much higher in mycelium compared to bulk soil, indicating accumulation of these elements within fungi. The concentration ratios (CR) defined as mg/kg dw in mycelium divided by mg/kg dw in soil were found to be 4.5, 5.1 and 2.4 for K, Rb and Cs respectively. For fruit bodies of fungi, these ratios were about one order of magnitude higher than that for mycelium: 65, 3. 75.8 and 18.6 for K, Rb and Cs, respectively. In mycelium, only weak correlations were found between K and Rb uptake (r=0.33) and between K and Cs uptake (r=0.48). The concentrations of the elements in fruit bodies of fungi were species-dependent. Generally, fungi seemed to take up Rb more efficiently than K. Highest Cs concentrations were found in fruit bodies of Sarcodon imbricatus (25.1 mg/kg). Sarcodon imbricatus was found to accumulate K, Cs and especially Rb to greatest extent, followed by Cortinarius sp., and Suillus variegatus. Litter decomposing fungi Hypholoma capnoides and Collybia peronata showed relatively weak ability to accumulate K, Rb as well as Cs, compared to the mycorrhizal species. No correlation was found between concentration of K, Rb and Cs in fruit bodies of fungi and soil pH as well as

  4. An SIS Epidemic Model with Stage Structure and a Delay

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yah-ni Xiao; Lan-sun Chen

    2002-01-01

    A disease transmission model of SIS type with stage structure and a delay is formulated. Stability of the disease free equilibrium, and existence, uniqueness, and stability of an endemic equilibrium, are investigated for the model. The stability results are stated in terms of a key threshold parameter. The effects of stage structure and time delay on dynamical behavior of the infectious disease are analyzed. It is shown that stage structure has no effect on the epidemic model and Hopf bifurcation can occur as the time delay increases.

  5. The Sausage Machine: A New Two-Stage Parsing Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Lyn; Fodor, Janet Dean

    1978-01-01

    The human sentence parsing device assigns phrase structure to sentences in two steps. The first stage parser assigns lexical and phrasal nodes to substrings of words. The second stage parser then adds higher nodes to link these phrasal packages together into a complete phrase marker. This model is compared with others. (Author/RD)

  6. Numerical and experimental modelling of the radial compressor stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syka, Tomáš; Matas, Richard; LuÅáček, Ondřej

    2016-06-01

    This article deals with the description of the numerical and experimental model of the new compressor stage designed for process centrifugal compressors. It's the first member of the new stages family developed to achieve the state of the art thermodynamic parameters. This stage (named RTK01) is designed for high flow coefficient with 3D shaped impeller blades. Some interesting findings were gained during its development. The article is focused mainly on some interesting aspects of the development methodology and numerical simulations improvement, not on the specific stage properties. Conditions and experimental equipment, measured results and their comparison with ANSYS CFX and NUMECA FINE/Turbo CFD simulations are described.

  7. Water Activities in Forsmark (Part I). Removal of groundwater from final repository for spent fuel; Vattenverksamhet i Forsmark (del I). Bortledande av grundvatten fraan slutfoervarsanlaeggningen foer anvaent kaernbraensle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent (EmpTec (Sweden)); Hamren, Ulrika; Collinder, Per (Ekologigruppen AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The construction, operation and decommissioning of the repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark are associated with a number of measures that constitute water operations according to Chapter 11 in the Environmental Code. This report is an appendix to the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and describes water operations in the form of groundwater diversion from the repository (the report is also included in the permit application according to the Nuclear Activities Act). The main objective of the report is to describe hydrogeological and hydrological effects and the consequences that may arise in the surroundings of the repository due to the groundwater diversion. Moreover, the report presents prevention measures to reduce the effects of the groundwater diversion and mitigation measures that aim at its consequences

  8. Review of SKB's preliminary safety evaluations for Forsmark and Laxemar; Myndigheternas granskning av SKB:s preliminaera saekerhetsbedoemningar foer Forsmark och Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Maria; Wallberg, Petra; Wiebert, Anders; Dverstorp, Bjoern; Shulan Xu (Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)); Toverud, Oeivind; Stroemberg, Bo; Kautsky, Fritz; Simic, Eva (Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-01-15

    This report presents SKI's and SSI's review of SKB's preliminary safety evaluations for Forsmark and Laxemar. The purpose of the review is to assess if the extent of SKB's initial site investigations are sufficient and if they are performed with adequate quality and also if they comprise the data that is needed for future safety analysis. To meet the request from the municipalities where site investigations are performed the authorities have also attempted to elucidate if a site has such obvious weakness that it probably will not comply with authority regulations. The target groups for the review are the municipalities in Oskarshamn and Oesthammar, and SKB

  9. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  10. Large-Scale Groundwater Flow with Free Water Surface Based on Data from SKB's Site Investigation in the Forsmark Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woerman, Anders; Sjoegren, Bjoern; Marklund, Lars [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    This report describes a data-base that covers entire Sweden with regard to various geographical parameters with implications to simulation of groundwater circulation on a regional and continental scale. The data-base include topography, stream network properties, and-use and water chemistry for limited areas. Furthermore, the report describes a computational (finite difference) code that solves the continuum equation for laminar, stationary and isotropic groundwater flow. The formulation accounts for a free groundwater surface except where the groundwater recharge into the stream network and lake bottoms. The theoretical background of the model is provided and the codes are described. The report also contain a simple user manual in a Matlab environment and provides and example calculation for the Forsmark area, Uppland, Sweden.

  11. Elemental composition of a deep sediment core from Lake Stocksjoen in the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroemgren, Maarten [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Brunberg, Anna-Kristina [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Evolution/Limnology

    2006-10-15

    A deep sediment core was taken from Lake Stocksjoen, situated within the Forsmark site investigation area. The 55 cm long sediment core, representing the entire history of the lake (approx 430 years) was sliced in 5 cm portions and analysed for various chemical elements, using ICP-MS technique. In total, 54 different elements - classified as main elements, heavy metals and trace elements - were analysed. In general terms, three different patterns of stratigraphy were derived from all the analysed elements. Calcium, manganese, lead and mercury occurred in highest concentrations in the upper sediments (<30 cm depth). Phosphorus, zinc, cadmium, antimony, tin and strontium occurred in more even proportions throughout the sediment core. All the other elements were substantially reduced in the upper parts (<30 cm) compared to the deeper parts of the sediment core. Metals that are considered as airborne pollutants were found in low or moderate concentrations. This is in concert with other investigations of pollutants that have been performed in the Forsmark area. The sediment of Lake Stocksjoen is highly organic, and has been so during the entire history of the lake. Much of the organic Material seems to be refractory and less susceptible for mineralisation and respiration during the prevailing environmental conditions. This corresponds well with the characteristic gelatinous cyanophycee gyttja found in the lower parts of the sediment core. Although speculative, the pronounced changes in elemental composition of the sediment at 30 cm depth may correspond to the final isolation of the lake from the Baltic Sea, which occurred approximately 230 years ago. The deeper parts (below 30 cm depth) thus may represent the time period with regular intrusions of brackish water into the lake basin. One important factor governing the environmental conditions and the resulting elemental composition of the sediment is the unusually thick 'microbial mat', which is characteristic

  12. The terrestrial ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. SR-Site Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders (ed.) (EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The ecosystem is in most cases the link between radionuclides released from a repository and the exposure of humans and other biota to them. This report describes the terrestrial ecosystems in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas by summarizing and performing cross-disciplinary analyses of data from a large number of reports produced during the site investigations, Figure 1-2. The report describes the terrestrial landscape, divided here into the three main categories: forests, wetlands and agriculture land, by identifying properties that are important for element accumulation and transport

  13. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  14. Chemical characteristics of surface systems in the Forsmark area. Visualisation and statistical evaluation of data from surface water, precipitation, shallow groundwater, and regolith

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-02-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste management Co (SKB) initiated site investigations for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel at two different sites in Sweden, Forsmark and Oskarshamn, in 2002. This report evaluates the results from chemical investigations of the surface system in the Forsmark area during the period November 2002 - March 2005. The evaluation includes data from surface waters (lakes, streams and the sea), precipitation, shallow groundwater and regolith (till, soil, peat, sediments and biota) in the area. Results from surface waters are not presented in this report since these were treated in a recently published report. The main focus of the study is to visualize the vast amount of data collected hitherto in the site investigations, and to give a chemical characterisation of the investigated media at the site. The results will be used to support the site descriptive models, which in turn are used for safety assessment studies and for the environmental impact assessment. The data used consist of water chemical composition in lakes, streams, coastal sites, and in precipitation, predominantly sampled on a monthly basis, and in groundwater from soil tubes and wells, sampled up to four times per year. Moreover, regolith data includes information on the chemical composition of till, soil, sediment and vegetation samples from the area. The characterisations include all measured chemical parameters, i.e. major and minor constituents, trace elements, nutrients, isotopes and radio nuclides, as well as field measured parameters. The evaluation of data from each medium has been divided into the following parts: Characterisation of individual sampling sites, and comparisons within and among sampling sites as well as comparisons with local, regional and national reference data; Analysis of time trends and seasonal variation (for shallow groundwater); Exploration of relationships among the various chemical parameters. For all investigated parameters, the

  15. A kinetic model for the first stage of pygas upgrading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. de Medeiros

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Pyrolysis gasoline - PYGAS - is an intermediate boiling product of naphtha steam cracking with a high octane number and high aromatic/unsaturated contents. Due to stabilization concerns, PYGAS must be hydrotreated in two stages. The first stage uses a mild trickle-bed conversion for removing extremely reactive species (styrene, dienes and olefins prior to the more severe second stage where sulfured and remaining olefins are hydrogenated in gas phase. This work addresses the reaction network and two-phase kinetic model for the first stage of PYGAS upgrading. Nonlinear estimation was used for model tuning with kinetic data obtained in bench-scale trickle-bed hydrogenation with a commercial Pd/Al2O3 catalyst. On-line sampling experiments were designed to study the influence of variables - temperature and spatial velocity - on the conversion of styrene, dienes and olefins.

  16. IMPULSIVE VACCINATION OF SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH STAGE-STRUCTURE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The period of infection is partitioned into the early and later stages according to the development process of infection. The infected individuals in the different stages have the different ability of transmitting disease. The constant recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as the disease-related death and pulse vaccination are incorporated into the model. Through the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact infection-free periodic solution to the sy...

  17. Dynamic Modelling of the Two-stage Gasification Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøbel, Benny; Henriksen, Ulrik B.; Houbak, Niels

    1999-01-01

    A two-stage gasification pilot plant was designed and built as a co-operative project between the Technical University of Denmark and the company REKA.A dynamic, mathematical model of the two-stage pilot plant was developed to serve as a tool for optimising the process and the operating conditions...... of the gasification plant.The model consists of modules corresponding to the different elements in the plant. The modules are coupled together through mass and heat conservation.Results from the model are compared with experimental data obtained during steady and unsteady operation of the pilot plant. A good...

  18. Present status and an appreciation of the consequences for recreation and outdoor leisure activities from siting a nuclear waste repository at Forsmark; Nulaegesanalys samt bedoemning av konsekvenser foer rekreation och friluftsliv av ett slutfoervar i Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ottosson, Pia [Atrax Energi AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-07-15

    This report describes how the area around Forsmark is used with respect to recreation and outdoor life. It also describes the impact of the final repository on recreation and outdoor life if it is located in Forsmark. The studied area is situated in the parish of Forsmark in the municipality of Oesthammar. Forsmark nuclear power plant and the final repository for radioactive operational waste, SFR, are situated within the area and there are both houses and holiday houses. The area is used for leisure pursuit by inhabitants and employees at FKA and SKB, but also by a number of different associations and by tourists. Statistical data shows that the parish of Forsmark is sparsely populated. The area was previously dominated by one big landowner and the land surrounding the nuclear power plant was inaccessible to the general public during that period. The outdoor life is therefore less widespread here than along other parts of the east coast. The value of the area does not lie in paths and trails, bike tracks and bathing places, but in the unspoiled countryside, the wildlife and the bird life. Recreation such as hunting and fishing is very popular in the area. The construction of a final repository will increase traffic and hence increase noise and motion in the area. This will mainly impact the enjoyment value for the people spending time in the area. No other significant consequences are expected as the final repository will be mainly situated within the existing industrial complex and hence the character of the area should remain unchanged.

  19. Review of possible correlations between in situ stress and PFL fracture transmissivity data at Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Derek (University of Alberta (United States)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2011-11-15

    In laboratory samples, the fracture transmissivity decreases significantly as the confining stress increases. While these experimental relationships are widely accepted and validated on laboratory samples, it is unknown if such relationships exist in situ or if these relationships can be scaled from the centimetre-scale laboratory tests to the metre-scale of in situ fractures. The purpose of this work is to assess the relationship between the structural-hydraulic data gathered in deep, cored boreholes at Forsmark and the in situ stress state acting on the these fractures. In conclusion, there does not appear to be sufficient evidence from these analyses to support the notion that the magnitude of the flow along the fractures at Forsmark is solely controlled by the in situ stress acting on the fracture. This should not be surprising because the majority of the fractures formed more than 1 billion years ago and the current in situ stress state has only been active for the past 12 million years. It is more likely that the transmissivity values are controlled by fracture roughness, open channels within the fracture, fracture stiffness and fracture infilling material

  20. Nonequilibrium stage modelling of dividing wall columns and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Christoph; Buck, Christina; Ehlers, Christoph; Fieg, Georg

    2010-11-01

    Dealing with complex process units like dividing wall columns pushes the focus on the determination of suitable modelling approaches. For this purpose a nonequilibrium stage model is developed. The successful validation is achieved by an experimental investigation of fatty alcohol mixtures under vacuum condition at pilot scale. Aim is the recovery of high purity products. The proposed model predicts the product qualities and temperature profiles very well.

  1. Modelling the initial stage of porous alumina growth during anodization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryslanova, E. M.; Alfimov, A. V.; Chivilikhin, S. A.

    2013-05-01

    Artificially on the surface of aluminum there may be build a thick layer of Al2O3, which has a porous structure. In this paper we present a model of growth of porous alumina in the initial stage of anodizing, identifying dependencies anodizing parameters on the rate of growth of the film and the distance between the pores and as a result of the created model equations were found for changes in the disturbance of alumina for the initial stage of anodizing aluminum oxide porous border aluminum-alumina and alumina-electrolyte, with the influence of surface diffusion of aluminum oxide.

  2. Topological Modeling of a One Stage Spur Gear Transmission

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MILADI CHAABANE Mariem; PLATEAUX Rgis; CHOLEY Jean-Yves; KARRA Chafik; RIVIERE Alain; HADDAR Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    Finding a basis of unification for the modeling of mechatronic systems is the search subject of several works. This paper is a part of a general research designed to the application of topology as a new approach for the modeling of mechatronic systems. Particularly, the modeling of a one stage spur gear transmission using a topological approach is tackled. This approach is based on the concepts of topological collections and transformations and implemented using the MGS(modeling of general systems) language. The topological collections are used to specify the interconnection laws of the one stage spur gear transmission and the transformations are used to specify the local behavior laws of its different components. In order to validate this approach, simulation results are presented and compared with those obtained with MODELICA language using Dymola solver. Since good results are achieved, this approach might be used as a basis of unification for the modeling of mechatronic systems.

  3. Topological modeling of a one stage spur gear transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miladi Chaabane, Mariem; Plateaux, Régis; Choley, Jean-Yves; Karra, Chafik; Riviere, Alain; Haddar, Mohamed

    2014-09-01

    Finding a basis of unification for the modeling of mechatronic systems is the search subject of several works. This paper is a part of a general research designed to the application of topology as a new approach for the modeling of mechatronic systems. Particularly, the modeling of a one stage spur gear transmission using a topological approach is tackled. This approach is based on the concepts of topological collections and transformations and implemented using the MGS(modeling of general systems) language. The topological collections are used to specify the interconnection laws of the one stage spur gear transmission and the transformations are used to specify the local behavior laws of its different components. In order to validate this approach, simulation results are presented and compared with those obtained with MODELICA language using Dymola solver. Since good results are achieved, this approach might be used as a basis of unification for the modeling of mechatronic systems.

  4. Inventory of vegetation and benthos in newly laid and natural ponds in Forsmark 2012; Inventering av vegetation och bottenfauna i nyanlagda och naturliga goelar i Forsmark 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qvarfordt, Susanne; Wallin, Anders; Borgiel, Micke [Sveriges Vattenekologer AB, Vingaaker (Sweden)

    2013-01-15

    SKB plans to build a repository for the spent nuclear fuel. The repository is planned to be built in Forsmark and constitutes installations above and below ground. The building and operation of the construction will involve activities that might affect the nature in the area. The impact means, among other things, that a small water body, which today is a reproduction site for the red listed pool frog (Rana lessonae), will disappear. The lost locality for the pool frog has been compensated by creating four new ponds in the Forsmark area. This study is part of the follow-up of these new habitats. The aim is to describe the plant and animal communities in the ponds, and follow the succession, i.e. the development of the habitats. The study also includes two natural ponds that will serve as reference objects. The survey of vegetation and invertebrate fauna in the ponds was conducted in October 2012. The results show that the new ponds had low coverage of submersed vegetation and the species composition in the plant communities differed between the ponds. The reference ponds also had different plant communities, both in terms of species composition and coverage. This indicates that the species composition of the plant communities in the new ponds will likely depend on physical factors specific to the respective pond, but that higher vegetation coverage can be expected over time in all new ponds. The reference ponds had similar animal communities that differed from the animal communities in the new ponds. The similar species composition in the reference ponds, despite the variety of plant communities, suggests that similar animal communities are likely to develop in the new ponds, even if the plant communities continues to be different. Water chemical sampling has also been conducted in the ponds during 2012. A comparison of the inorganic environment (with regard to analysed ions) showed that the reference ponds had relatively similar ion compositions with little

  5. Quantitative distribution of aquatic plant and animal communities in the Forsmark-area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kautsky, H.; Plantman, P.; Borgiel, M. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology

    1999-12-15

    This report is a part of the SKB project 'SAFE'. The aim of SAFE is to update the previous safety analysis of SFR-1. SFR is for the repository of low and intermediate level radioactive waste. The aim of this report is to provide background information of the quantitative distribution of macroscopic (>1 mm) plants and animals on the sea floor (the phytobenthic communities) above the SFR. The phytobenthic plant and animal communities in the Bothnian Sea may constitute over half of the total production of the ecosystem in the coastal zone. Data will be used in a simulation model of the area. The attached plant and animal communities of the sea floor can be the major component to find radioactive isotopes when a leakage should occur from the SFR below the investigated area. Their ability to bioaccumulate the isotopes and the abundance of the plants and animals might to a large extent determine the amount of radionuclides that could be retained in the biological system. This might then affect the form of further dispersal of the radionuclides over larger areas, whether they are kept within and accumulated in the food chain or retained in the sediments or diluted in the water column. In the investigated area divers described the sea floor substrate and the dominating plant and animal communities along transect lines. In addition, the divers collected quantitative samples. Three transects were placed just above SFR, and two transects were placed from the shore of islands adjacent to SFR. In total, divers collected 54 quantitative samples. Also, divers collected 6 sediment cores for analysis of the organic contents and chlorophylla. The results from the divers estimates of plant and animal species distribution and cover degree, as well as the quantitative samples, indicated the area being fairly rich. An eroded moraine (boulders, stones, gravel and sand) dominated the substrate with occasional rock outcrops. At several sites, on the hard, more stable substrates

  6. Earthquake activity in Sweden. Study in connection with a proposed nuclear waste repository in Forsmark or Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boedvarsson, Reynir; Lund, Bjoern; Roberts, Roland; Slunga, Ragnar [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Earth Sciences

    2006-02-15

    The aim of this report is to evaluate the risks for future earthquakes in the vicinity of the proposed nuclear waste repository sites at Forsmark and Oskarshamn. Time periods of 100 and 1,000 years will be considered, which implies that the focus of this study is on an evaluation of the current, general situation in the region. Major events on a longer time scale, such as an ice-age, will only be briefly considered. Earthquakes are products of ongoing deformations within the Earth and this report will, therefore, concentrate on the current state of knowledge about deformations in the region. As earthquakes are our most important source of information about deformations at depth in the crust, we will focus on the available seismic data using the Nordic earthquake catalog maintained at the Institute of Seismology, Helsinki University, and the recent data from the new Swedish National Seismic Network. Direct measurements of surface deformation using the Global Positioning System will also be utilized in the analysis. Sweden is a low seismicity area, with most earthquakes being observed in the south-west, around Lake Vaenern, along the north-east coast and in Norrbotten. South-eastern Sweden is on the contrary relatively inactive. Seismicity is also, generally, episodic in time which together with the short period of instrumental observation, approximately 100 years, makes our knowledge about the activity far from complete. Although very large earthquakes (magnitude about 8) have occurred in Sweden, it is generally agreed that these were connected to the late stages of deglaciation at the end of the previous ice-age. At the time scales considered in this report, inferences from current seismicity is of more relevance. This data suggests that we should expect at least one magnitude 5 earthquake in our region every century and one magnitude 6 earthquake every one thousand years. In order to illustrate the effects of static and dynamic deformation from a magnitude 5

  7. Earthquake activity in Sweden. Study in connection with a proposed nuclear waste repository in Forsmark or Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boedvarsson, Reynir; Lund, Bjoern; Roberts, Roland; Slunga, Ragnar [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Earth Sciences

    2006-02-15

    The aim of this report is to evaluate the risks for future earthquakes in the vicinity of the proposed nuclear waste repository sites at Forsmark and Oskarshamn. Time periods of 100 and 1,000 years will be considered, which implies that the focus of this study is on an evaluation of the current, general situation in the region. Major events on a longer time scale, such as an ice-age, will only be briefly considered. Earthquakes are products of ongoing deformations within the Earth and this report will, therefore, concentrate on the current state of knowledge about deformations in the region. As earthquakes are our most important source of information about deformations at depth in the crust, we will focus on the available seismic data using the Nordic earthquake catalog maintained at the Institute of Seismology, Helsinki University, and the recent data from the new Swedish National Seismic Network. Direct measurements of surface deformation using the Global Positioning System will also be utilized in the analysis. Sweden is a low seismicity area, with most earthquakes being observed in the south-west, around Lake Vaenern, along the north-east coast and in Norrbotten. South-eastern Sweden is on the contrary relatively inactive. Seismicity is also, generally, episodic in time which together with the short period of instrumental observation, approximately 100 years, makes our knowledge about the activity far from complete. Although very large earthquakes (magnitude about 8) have occurred in Sweden, it is generally agreed that these were connected to the late stages of deglaciation at the end of the previous ice-age. At the time scales considered in this report, inferences from current seismicity is of more relevance. This data suggests that we should expect at least one magnitude 5 earthquake in our region every century and one magnitude 6 earthquake every one thousand years. In order to illustrate the effects of static and dynamic deformation from a magnitude 5

  8. Two-stage local M-estimation of additive models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG JianCheng; LI JianTao

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies local M-estimation of the nonparametric components of additive models. A two-stage local M-estimation procedure is proposed for estimating the additive components and their derivatives. Under very mild conditions, the proposed estimators of each additive component and its derivative are jointly asymptotically normal and share the same asymptotic distributions as they would be if the other components were known. The established asymptotic results also hold for two particular local M-estimations: the local least squares and least absolute deviation estimations. However,for general two-stage local M-estimation with continuous and nonlinear ψ-functions, its implementation is time-consuming. To reduce the computational burden, one-step approximations to the two-stage local M-estimators are developed. The one-step estimators are shown to achieve the same efficiency as the fully iterative two-stage local M-estimators, which makes the two-stage local M-estimation more feasible in practice. The proposed estimators inherit the advantages and at the same time overcome the disadvantages of the local least-squares based smoothers. In addition, the practical implementation of the proposed estimation is considered in details. Simulations demonstrate the merits of the two-stage local M-estimation, and a real example illustrates the performance of the methodology.

  9. Two-stage local M-estimation of additive models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies local M-estimation of the nonparametric components of additive models.A two-stage local M-estimation procedure is proposed for estimating the additive components and their derivatives.Under very mild conditions,the proposed estimators of each additive component and its derivative are jointly asymptotically normal and share the same asymptotic distributions as they would be if the other components were known.The established asymptotic results also hold for two particular local M-estimations:the local least squares and least absolute deviation estimations.However,for general two-stage local M-estimation with continuous and nonlinear ψ-functions,its implementation is time-consuming.To reduce the computational burden,one-step approximations to the two-stage local M-estimators are developed.The one-step estimators are shown to achieve the same effciency as the fully iterative two-stage local M-estimators,which makes the two-stage local M-estimation more feasible in practice.The proposed estimators inherit the advantages and at the same time overcome the disadvantages of the local least-squares based smoothers.In addition,the practical implementation of the proposed estimation is considered in details.Simulations demonstrate the merits of the two-stage local M-estimation,and a real example illustrates the performance of the methodology.

  10. Forsmark site characterisation - Borehole KFM22 and KFM23: Derivation of porewater data by diffusion experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waber, H. N. [Rock Water Interaction, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Smellie, J. A. T. [Conterra AB, Partille (Sweden)

    2012-04-15

    Within the Detum Project (Detailed Investigations in Forsmark) a 'Methodology comparison for porewater extraction and characterisation techniques' was initiated. This has centred on two shallow boreholes drilled at Soederviken within the northern part of the Forsmark characterisation site. The comparison includes different methodologies to characterise the chemical and isotopic composition of porewater residing in the connected pore space of the rock matrix. The present report describes the chemical and isotopic information of the porewater obtained by out-diffusion experiments and the diffusive isotope equilibration technique applied to originally water saturated drillcore samples. In addition, petrophysical data and solute transport properties of the rock matrix, all necessary for porewater characterisation, have also been elaborated. Specially conditioned drillcore samples were obtained from depths of less than 100 m from boreholes KFM22 and KFM23. Porewater has been extracted successfully from seven samples by laboratory out-diffusion and diffusive isotope exchange methods. The methodology to extract and analyse the porewater is outlined and the analytical data are tabulated. The data are critically reviewed for potential experimental artefacts and their significance with respect to in situ conditions. The connected pore space in the core material representing borehole KFM22 and KFM23 was measured on different types of originally saturated drillcore samples using gravimetric and isotope mass balance methods. Out-diffusion experiments were performed on kg-sized drillcore samples to derive the in situ concentration of the chemically conservative compounds chloride and bromide. The attainment of equilibrium conditions in the out-diffusion experiments was monitored by the concentration change of chloride and bromide as a function of time. The water isotope composition of porewater was determined by the diffusive isotope equilibration technique and by

  11. A preliminary carbon budget for two oligotrophic hardwater lakes in the Forsmark area, Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Eva [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology

    2001-06-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is responsible for management and disposal of Swedish radioactive waste. The company is planning to construct repositories that will keep radioactive waste away from humans for hundreds of thousands of years. In a safety assessment of the repositories hypothetical releases are used to evaluate the robustness of the repositories. It is important to know how the radioactive nuclides would react if they were released and by which way they could enter the living biota. SFR are responsible for the disposal of low radioactive waste and close to the nuclear plant in Forsmark there is a storage for low radioactive waste. At the moment this storage is located in the bedrock far below the sea level but due to land-rise in the area it will in the future be located above sea level. Hence, it is of importance to know how the surface ecosystems in the area are functioning. A carbon budget for the aquatic ecosystem above SFR in Oeresundsgrepen exist, but it is also important to have a carbon budget for the surface systems in the Forsmark area since SFR in the future will be situated above sea level. Carbon budgets can be used to get a picture of how an ecosystem functions. The carbon flow shows how carbon is transported through a food web from lower trophic levels, e.g. plants and bacteria to higher trophic levels such as fish. Oligotrophic hardwater lakes are the most important lakes in the Forsmark area. This report aims to give a picture of a potential flow of carbon through the ecosystem in two oligotrophic hard-water lakes, Lake Haellefjaerd and Lake Eckarfjaerden. Macrophyte, mainly Chara, were calculated to make up the largest part of the biomass and production in both lakes. Benthic bacteria and microphytobenthos (benthic photosynthesising microorganisms) were other large contributors to the production. Benthic bacteria were found responsible for a major part of respiration and, hence, consumption of carbon in the

  12. The protection motivation theory within the stages of the transtheoretical model - stage-specific interplay of variables and prediction of exercise stage transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippke, Sonia; Plotnikoff, Ronald C

    2009-05-01

    Two different theories of health behaviour have been chosen with the aim of theory integration: a continuous theory (protection motivation theory, PMT) and a stage model (transtheoretical model, TTM). This is the first study to test whether the stages of the TTM moderate the interrelation of PMT-variables and the mediation of motivation, as well as PMT-variables' interactions in predicting stage transitions. Hypotheses were tested regarding (1) mean patterns, stage pair-comparisons and nonlinear trends using ANOVAs; (2) prediction-patterns for the different stage groups employing multi-group structural equation modelling (MSEM) and nested model analyses; and (3) stage transitions using binary logistic regression analyses. Adults (N=1,602) were assessed over a 6 month period on their physical activity stages, PMT-variables and subsequent behaviour. (1) Particular mean differences and nonlinear trends in all test variables were found. (2) The PMT adequately fitted the five stage groups. The MSEM revealed that covariances within threat appraisal and coping appraisal were invariant and all other constrains were stage-specific, i.e. stage was a moderator. Except for self-efficacy, motivation fully mediated the relationship between the social-cognitive variables and behaviour. (3) Predicting stage transitions with the PMT-variables underscored the importance of self-efficacy. Only when threat appraisal and coping appraisal were high, stage movement was more likely in the preparation stage. Results emphasize stage-specific differences of the PMT mechanisms, and hence, support the stage construct. The findings may guide further theory building and research integrating different theoretical approaches.

  13. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  14. Contextual assessment of maintenance culture at Olkiluoto and Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiman, T.; Oedewald, P. [VTT Industrial Systems (Finland); Rollenhagen, C.; Eriksson, I. [Maelardalen University (Sweden)

    2004-04-01

    The study aims to characterise, assess and develop the organisational cultures of participating nuclear power companies' maintenance units. The assessment is made by the means of maintenance core task modelling that has already been started in previous studies. The theoretical core task model is used in evaluating the characteristics of the organisational culture. We aim to identify what are the strengths and weaknesses of the case organisation's culture in relation to its core task. The study also aims to validate the methodology for contextual assessment of organisational culture. In addition to case specific results, the study acts as a benchmark between the participating companies and gives a chance to compare the different culture profiles between the companies. Similarities and differences between the organisational cultures at the maintenance units were identified. The purpose is not however to evaluate which organisation is better, but to raise issues that require attention at the organisations. When evaluative statements are made, the criteria are formed on the basis of the core task model: Even though the practices differ, from the perspective of the maintenance core task they might both be as effective. (au)

  15. Modeling the superovulation stage in in vitro fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yenkie, Kirti M; Diwekar, Urmila M; Bhalerao, Vibha

    2013-11-01

    In vitro fertilization (IVF) is the most common technique in assisted reproductive technology and in most cases the last resort for infertility treatment. It has four basic stages: superovulation, egg retrieval, insemination/fertilization, and embryo transfer. Superovulation is a drug-induced method to enable multiple ovulation per menstrual cycle. The success of IVF majorly depends upon successful superovulation, defined by the number and similar quality of eggs retrieved in a cycle. Modeling the superovulation stage can help in predicting the outcomes of IVF before the cycle is complete. In this paper, we developed a model for superovulation stage. The model is adapted from the theory of batch crystallization. The aim of crystallization is to get maximum crystals of similar size and purity, while superovulation aims at eggs of similar quality and size. The rate of crystallization and superovulation are both dependent on the process conditions and varies with time. The kinetics of follicle growth is modeled as a function of injected hormones and the follicle properties are represented in terms of the moments. The results from the model prediction were verified with the known data from Jijamata Hospital, Nanded, India. The predictions were found to be in agreement with the actual observations.

  16. Removal of groundwater from final repository in Forsmark. Description of consequences for nature values and forest production; Bortledande av grundvatten fraan slutfoervarsanlaeggningen i Forsmark. Beskrivning av konsekvenser foer naturvaerden och skogsproduktion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamren, Ulrika; Collinder, Per; Allmer, Johan (Ekologigruppen AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) has chosen Forsmark in the Municipality of Oesthammar as site for the final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report describes consequences for nature values and forestry due to groundwater diversion during construction and operation of the repository. The report concerns nature values that depend on, or are favoured by, a groundwater table close to or above the ground surface

  17. Stochastic stage-structured modeling of the adaptive immune system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chao, D. L. (Dennis L.); Davenport, M. P. (Miles P.); Forrest, S. (Stephanie); Perelson, Alan S.,

    2003-01-01

    We have constructed a computer model of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response to antigen and the maintenance of immunological memory. Because immune responses often begin with small numbers of cells and there is great variation among individual immune systems, we have chosen to implement a stochastic model that captures the life cycle of T cells more faithfully than deterministic models. Past models of the immune response have been differential equation based, which do not capture stochastic effects, or agent-based, which are computationally expensive. We use a stochastic stage-structured approach that has many of the advantages of agent-based modeling but is more efficient. Our model can provide insights into the effect infections have on the CTL repertoire and the response to subsequent infections.

  18. Modeling heart rate variability including the effect of sleep stages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliński, Mateusz; Gierałtowski, Jan; Żebrowski, Jan

    2016-02-01

    We propose a model for heart rate variability (HRV) of a healthy individual during sleep with the assumption that the heart rate variability is predominantly a random process. Autonomic nervous system activity has different properties during different sleep stages, and this affects many physiological systems including the cardiovascular system. Different properties of HRV can be observed during each particular sleep stage. We believe that taking into account the sleep architecture is crucial for modeling the human nighttime HRV. The stochastic model of HRV introduced by Kantelhardt et al. was used as the initial starting point. We studied the statistical properties of sleep in healthy adults, analyzing 30 polysomnographic recordings, which provided realistic information about sleep architecture. Next, we generated synthetic hypnograms and included them in the modeling of nighttime RR interval series. The results of standard HRV linear analysis and of nonlinear analysis (Shannon entropy, Poincaré plots, and multiscale multifractal analysis) show that—in comparison with real data—the HRV signals obtained from our model have very similar properties, in particular including the multifractal characteristics at different time scales. The model described in this paper is discussed in the context of normal sleep. However, its construction is such that it should allow to model heart rate variability in sleep disorders. This possibility is briefly discussed.

  19. A Two-stage Polynomial Method for Spectrum Emissivity Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Qiu, Qirong; Liu, Shi; Teng, Jing; Yan, Yong

    2015-01-01

    Spectral emissivity is a key in the temperature measurement by radiation methods, but not easy to determine in a combustion environment, due to the interrelated influence of temperature and wave length of the radiation. In multi-wavelength radiation thermometry, knowing the spectral emissivity of the material is a prerequisite. However in many circumstances such a property is a complex function of temperature and wavelength and reliable models are yet to be sought. In this study, a two stages...

  20. Modifications of some simple One-stage Randomized Response Models to Two-stage in complex surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rafiq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Warner (1965 introduced a Randomized Response Technique (RRT to minimize bias due to non- response or false response. Thereafter, several researchers have made significant contribution in the development and modification of different Randomized Response Models. We have modified a few one-stage Simple Randomized Response Models to two-stage randomized response models in complex surveys and found that our developed models are more efficient.

  1. Gear Defect Modeling of a Multiple-Stage Gear Train

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Sommer

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the transient and steady state dynamic loading on teeth within a two-stage gear transmission arising from backlash and geometric manufacturing errors by utilizing a nonlinear multibody dynamics software model. Backlash between gear teeth which is essential to provide better lubrication on tooth surfaces and to eliminate interference is included as a defect and a necessary part of transmission design. Torsional vibration is shown to cause teeth separation and double-sided impacts in unloaded and lightly loaded gearing drives. Vibration and impact force distinctions between backlash and combinations of transmission errors are demonstrated under different initial velocities and load conditions. The backlash and manufacturing errors in the first stage of the gear train are distinct from those of the second stage. By analyzing the signal at a location between the two stages, the mutually affected impact forces are observed from different gear pairs, a phenomenon not observed from single pair of gears. Frequency analysis shows the appearance of side band modulations as well as harmonics of the gear mesh frequency. A joint time-frequency response analysis during startup illustrates the manner in which contact forces increase during acceleration.

  2. Combustion Model FOr Staged Circulating Fluidized Bed BOiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FandJianhua; LuQinggang; 等

    1997-01-01

    A mathematical model for atmospheric staged circulating fluidized bed combustion,which takes fluid dynamics,combustion,heat transfer,pollutants formation and retention,into account was developed in the institute of Engineering Thermophysics(IET)recently.The model of gas solid flow at the bottom of the combustor was treated by the two-phase theory of fluidized bed and in the upper region as a core-annulus flow structure.The chemical species CO,CO2,H2,H2O,CH4,O2 and N2 were considered in the reaction process.The mathematical model consisted of sub-modeles of fluid namics,coal heterogeneous and gas homogeneous chemical reactions.heat transfer,particle fragmentation and attrition,mass and energy balance tec.The developed code was applied to simulate an operating staged circulating fluidized bed combustion boiler of early design and the results were in good agreement with the operating data.The main submodels and simulation results are given in this paoper.

  3. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  4. Long-term safety for the final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark. Main report of the SR-Site project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-03-15

    The central conclusion of the safety assessment SR-Site is that a KBS-3 repository that fulfils long-term safety requirements can be built at the Forsmark site. This conclusion is reached because the favourable properties of the Forsmark site ensure the required long-term durability of the barriers of the KBS-3 repository. In particular, the copper canisters with their cast iron inserts have been demonstrated to provide a sufficient resistance to the mechanical and chemical loads to which they may be subjected in the repository environment. The conclusion is underpinned by: - The reliance of the KBS-3 repository on i) a geological environment that exhibits long-term stability with respect to properties of importance for long-term safety, i.e. mechanical stability, low groundwater flow rates at repository depth and the absence of high concentrations of detrimental components in the groundwater, and ii) the choice of naturally occurring materials (copper and bentonite clay) for the engineered barriers that are sufficiently durable in the repository environment to provide the barrier longevity required for safety. - The understanding, through decades of research at SKB and in international collaboration, of the phenomena that affect long-term safety, resulting in a mature knowledge base for the safety assessment. - The understanding of the characteristics of the site through several years of surface-based investigations of the conditions at depth and of scientific interpretation of the data emerging from the investigations, resulting in a mature model of the site, adequate for use in the safety assessment. - The detailed specifications of the engineered parts of the repository and the demonstration of how components fulfilling the specifications are to be produced in a quality assured manner, thereby providing a quality assured initial state for the safety assessment. The detailed analyses demonstrate that canister failures in a one million year perspective are rare

  5. Long-term safety for the final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark. Main report of the SR-Site project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-03-15

    The central conclusion of the safety assessment SR-Site is that a KBS-3 repository that fulfils long-term safety requirements can be built at the Forsmark site. This conclusion is reached because the favourable properties of the Forsmark site ensure the required long-term durability of the barriers of the KBS-3 repository. In particular, the copper canisters with their cast iron inserts have been demonstrated to provide a sufficient resistance to the mechanical and chemical loads to which they may be subjected in the repository environment. The conclusion is underpinned by: - The reliance of the KBS-3 repository on i) a geological environment that exhibits long-term stability with respect to properties of importance for long-term safety, i.e. mechanical stability, low groundwater flow rates at repository depth and the absence of high concentrations of detrimental components in the groundwater, and ii) the choice of naturally occurring materials (copper and bentonite clay) for the engineered barriers that are sufficiently durable in the repository environment to provide the barrier longevity required for safety. - The understanding, through decades of research at SKB and in international collaboration, of the phenomena that affect long-term safety, resulting in a mature knowledge base for the safety assessment. - The understanding of the characteristics of the site through several years of surface-based investigations of the conditions at depth and of scientific interpretation of the data emerging from the investigations, resulting in a mature model of the site, adequate for use in the safety assessment. - The detailed specifications of the engineered parts of the repository and the demonstration of how components fulfilling the specifications are to be produced in a quality assured manner, thereby providing a quality assured initial state for the safety assessment. The detailed analyses demonstrate that canister failures in a one million year perspective are rare

  6. Stabilizing effect of cannibalism in a two stages population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rault, Jonathan; Benoît, Eric; Gouzé, Jean-Luc

    2013-03-01

    In this paper we build a prey-predator model with discrete weight structure for the predator. This model will conserve the number of individuals and the biomass and both growth and reproduction of the predator will depend on the food ingested. Moreover the model allows cannibalism which means that the predator can eat the prey but also other predators. We will focus on a simple version with two weight classes or stage (larvae and adults) and present some general mathematical results. In the last part, we will assume that the dynamics of the prey is fast compared to the predator's one to go further in the results and eventually conclude that under some conditions, cannibalism can stabilize the system: more precisely, an unstable equilibrium without cannibalism will become almost globally stable with some cannibalism. Some numerical simulations are done to illustrate this result.

  7. Forsmark site investigation. Programme for further investigations of geosphere and biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-01-01

    Since the beginning of 2002, SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co) has been conducting a site investigation in Forsmark in the municipality of Oesthammar for siting of the deep repository for spent nuclear fuel. An equivalent investigation is also being conducted at Simpevarp and Laxemar in Oskarshamn Municipality. SKB's goal is to submit an application under the Environmental Code and the Nuclear Activities Act for siting of the deep repository at one of these sites by the end of 2008/beginning of 2009. When the application is submitted, everything of importance for the deep repository's safety, constructability and environmental impact shall have been investigated and analyzed. The investigations shall also provide data as a basis for selecting a site and configuring the facility to suit conditions on the site.SKB submitted a programme for the initial site investigation in Forsmark at the end of 2001. The investigations described there have now been completed. This report describes the programme that has now been prepared for the remainder of the site investigation. The points of departure are the general goals for the Deep Repository Project during the site investigation phase, the data needed for evaluation of the site, plus experience and results from the work to date. The programme has been prepared with the support of investigation data as of August 2004. The investigations described here will, as before, be conducted with great consideration given to residents, property owners and natural and cultural values so that they are not unnecessarily exposed to impact or disturbances. Just as before, the programme will be continuously adapted to the knowledge that is gradually accumulated on the site. All important changes will be reported to the authorities and other concerned parties. The investigations that have been conducted (as of August 2004) and their results can be summarized in the following points: The surface characterization

  8. Post-glacial, land rise-induced formation and development of lakes in the Forsmark area, central Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunberg, Anna-Kristina; Blomqvist, Peter [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology, Evolutionary Biology Centre

    2000-03-15

    This report describes the lakes of Uppsala county, with special emphasis on the coastal lakes in the Forsmark area. The aim of the study is to characterise different main types of lakes within the Forsmark area and to create a basis for prediction of their ontogeny, that can be used also for new lakes which due to shoreline displacement will be formed during the next 10 000 years. Areas where future research is needed to fully understand the functioning of the lake ecosystems and their ontogeny have also been identified. Three main types of lake ecosystems could be identified: The oligotrophic hardwater lakes are to a large extent surrounded by mires. Inflow as well as outflow of water is often diffuse, via the surrounding mire. The lakes are small and shallow, with nutrient poor and highly alkaline water. Three key habitats have been identified within the lakes; i) the pelagic zone, characterised by low production of biota, ii) the presumably moderately productive emergent macrophyte zone, dominated by Sphagnum and Phragmites, and iii) the light-exposed soft-bottom zone with Chara meadows and an unusually rich and presumably highly productive microbial sediment community. In later stages of the lake ontogeny, Sphagnum becomes more and more dominant in the system, which successively turns acidic. The final stage is likely to be a raised bog ecosystem with an autonomous hydrological functioning. The brown water lakes are typically found within the main part of the River Forsmarksaan and are characterised by a high flow-through of water from the upper parts of the drainage area, which are dominated by mires. Their lake water is highly stained by allochtonous organic carbon imported from the catchment area. Also in this lake type a Sphagnum-littoral successively develops, and in a mature lake three key habitats can be identified; i) the pelagic zone, most likely the dominant habitat in terms of production of organisms and in which bacterioplankton dominates the

  9. A Dual-Stage Two-Phase Model of Selective Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubner, Ronald; Steinhauser, Marco; Lehle, Carola

    2010-01-01

    The dual-stage two-phase (DSTP) model is introduced as a formal and general model of selective attention that includes both an early and a late stage of stimulus selection. Whereas at the early stage information is selected by perceptual filters whose selectivity is relatively limited, at the late stage stimuli are selected more efficiently on a…

  10. Controlling the feedwater flow in a BWR. Examples from Forsmark 2; Regleringen av matarvattenfloedet i en BWR. Med exempel fraan Forsmark 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergdahl, Bengt-Goeran; Oguma, Ritsuo (GSE Power Systems AB, Nykoeping (Sweden))

    2009-03-15

    An investigation of the feedwater controller at Forsmark 2 has been performed. The investigation is based on signal analysis of measurement signals recorded during operation of the plant during different tests. The feedwater controller consists of the water level controller, the flow controller and the condenser balance controller. The overall goal of the feedwater control is to maintain constant water level (level controller) in the reactor and at the same time balance the water levels in the two condensers (condenser balance controller) to avoid that one condenser is full of water while the other one is operated with too low level. There is also a feed forward of the difference between steam flow and feedwater flow (flow controller) for each turbine system with the aim to reduce the fluctuation in reactor water level. The relation in strength between the three controllers is such that the level controller is the strongest followed by the condenser balance controller and finally the flow controller. Tests with trip of the feedwater pump and automatic start of the spare pump in each turbine system indicates a fast reduction in reactor water level that is restored after the transient in the control system. The transient in water level is stable without oscillations. However, it takes about 100 s before the reactor water level is restored. The function of the flow controller has been questioned by the authors. It does not take the action that is expected when a disturbance takes place in the difference between steam and feedwater flow. In addition to this principal weakness there is an offset in the feedwater controller output for feedwater flow 22 that reduces the contribution in flow control that is expected during the introduction of a disturbance. This offset should be adjusted during instrument maintenance of the feedwater controller. The PIP parameters for the level controller are gain factors and time constants. These have been evaluated with the aid of

  11. Forsmark site investigation. Hydrochemical monitoring of groundwaters and surface waters. Results from water sampling in the Forsmark area, January-December 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Ann-Chatrin (ed.); Berg, Cecilia; Harrstroem, Johan; Joensson, Stig; Thur, Pernilla (Geosigma AB (Sweden)); Borgiel, Micke; Qvarfordt, Susanne (Sveriges Vattenekologer AB (Sweden))

    2010-09-15

    The fifth year (2009) of hydrochemical monitoring of groundwaters, surface waters and precipitation in Forsmark is documented in the report. The hydrochemical monitoring programme 2009 included water sampling from: - percussion- and core boreholes equipped with installations for long-term pressure monitoring, tracer tests and water sampling in packed off borehole sections, sampling and analysis performed twice (spring and autumn), - near surface groundwaters (sampling four times a year), - private wells (once per year in October), - surface waters (eleven sampling occasions per year). Due to the somewhat different performance of the hydrogeochemical monitoring of the deep groundwaters during the autumn 2009 compared to previous years, some new findings and knowledge were obtained: 1) Removal of water volumes corresponding to three to five times the volume of the borehole section (the routine procedure) is seldom enough to obtain a complete exchange of the water present in the borehole section when the pumping starts. 2) It is likely that the elevated sulphide concentrations observed in the monitoring programme /1/ is due to contamination from initial water present in the borehole sections when the pumping starts. This water may have a very high sulphide concentration. Dirty water in tubes and in stand pipes may also contribute to the enhanced sulphide concentration. 3) Plug flow calculations will be introduced in the future as a new routine procedure to estimate the water volumes to be removed, in order to exchange the section water volume, prior to groundwater sampling in delimited borehole sections. During the autumn sampling, sample series of five samples per sampling location were collected during continuous pumping in thirteen selected borehole sections. Furthermore, special efforts were put on cleaning of stand pipes and exchange of water prior to sampling. The analytical protocol was rather extensive and included sulphide and uranium analyses for each sample

  12. Using the life history model to set the stage(s) of growth and senescence in bioarchaeology and paleodemography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roksandic, Mirjana; Armstrong, Stephanie D

    2011-07-01

    Paleodemography, the study of demographic parameters of past human populations, relies on assumptions including biological uniformitarianism, stationary populations, and the ability to determine point age estimates from skeletal material. These assumptions have been widely criticized in the literature and various solutions have been proposed. The majority of these solutions rely on statistical modeling, and have not seen widespread application. Most bioarchaeologists recognize that our ability to assess chronological age is inherently limited, and have instead resorted to large, qualitative, age categories. However, there has been little attempt in the literature to systematize and define the stages of development and ageing used in bioarchaeology. We propose that stages should be based in the human life history pattern, and their skeletal markers should have easily defined and clear endpoints. In addition to a standard five-stage developmental model based on the human life history pattern, current among human biologists, we suggest divisions within the adult stage that recognize the specific nature of skeletal samples. We therefore propose the following eight stages recognizable in human skeletal development and senescence: infancy, early childhood, late childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, full adulthood, mature adulthood, and senile adulthood. Striving toward a better prediction of chronological ages will remain important and could eventually help us understand to what extent past societies differed in the timing of these life stages. Furthermore, paleodemographers should try to develop methods that rely on the type of age information accessible from the skeletal material, which uses life stages, rather than point age estimates.

  13. Applying the "Model of recovering alcoholics' behavior stages and goal setting" to nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, D M

    1993-08-01

    In 1990, the author developed the Model of Recovering Alcoholics' Behavior Stages and Goal Setting as a result of grounded theory research. The model explains the natural progression of recovery through four behavior stages. Each stage is characterized by specific patient goals. Application of the model provides a framework for nursing care planning that is both stage-focused and patient-centered. In this article, the author discusses nursing intervention in relation to the model.

  14. Scope, delimitations and inquiries for environmental impact statements for an encapsulation plant and a repository for spent nuclear fuels. Forsmark; Omfattning, avgraensningar och utredningar foer miljoekonsekvensbeskrivningar (MKB) foer inkapslingsanlaeggning och slutfoervar foer anvaent kaernbraensle. Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-10-15

    SKB has studied different alternatives for locating a plant for encapsulating spent fuel element for later disposal in an underground repository. SKB aims to apply for a license to build this plant close to the Central interim storage for spent fuels (Clab), at Oskarshamn. An alternative localization can be Forsmark, should the repository be localized there. This report gives a review of the work and inquiries that will form the basis for the EIS documents. A similar report is published for the Oskarshamn localization.

  15. Mathematical modeling of a single stage ultrasonically assisted distillation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdi, Taha; Ahmad, Arshad; Ripin, Adnan; Abdullah, Tuan Amran Tuan; Nasef, Mohamed M; Ali, Mohamad W

    2015-05-01

    The ability of sonication phenomena in facilitating separation of azeotropic mixtures presents a promising approach for the development of more intensified and efficient distillation systems than conventional ones. To expedite the much-needed development, a mathematical model of the system based on conservation principles, vapor-liquid equilibrium and sonochemistry was developed in this study. The model that was founded on a single stage vapor-liquid equilibrium system and enhanced with ultrasonic waves was coded using MATLAB simulator and validated with experimental data for ethanol-ethyl acetate mixture. The effects of both ultrasonic frequency and intensity on the relative volatility and azeotropic point were examined, and the optimal conditions were obtained using genetic algorithm. The experimental data validated the model with a reasonable accuracy. The results of this study revealed that the azeotropic point of the mixture can be totally eliminated with the right combination of sonication parameters and this can be utilized in facilitating design efforts towards establishing a workable ultrasonically intensified distillation system.

  16. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  17. THM-issues in repository rock. Thermal, mechanical, thermo-mechanical and hydro-mechanical evolution of the rock at the Forsmark and Laxemar sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekmark, Harald; Loennqvist, Margareta; Faelth, Billy (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden))

    2010-05-15

    even in the hottest ones. To account for uncertainties in the thermal calculations, the layout is established with a margin of about 5 deg C to the 100 deg C limit. It is demonstrated here that the spatial variability of rock heat transport properties means that there is considerable robustness in the design approach. An underestimate of the uncertainty margin by a few degrees appears to impact on very few canisters, even under the conservative assumption that all deposition holes are completely dry. Spalling after excavation of a deposition hole excavation is not likely unless the major horizontal stress is aligned off the orientation of the tunnel axis by the largest angle given within the uncertainty range of the Forsmark in situ stress model. In case it happens, the spalling will be limited to the top 1 m of the deposition hole for the most likely Forsmark major stress magnitude and to the top 3 m for the upper bound stress magnitude. Thermally-induced spalling is almost certain to occur after some time of heating, i.e. also for the most favourable conditions regarding stress orientation and magnitude. However, for the most favourable conditions the spalling will occur late and be limited to the top 5 m of the deposition hole. All spalling risk estimates are based on the assumption that the spalling strength varies between 52% and 62% of the uniaxial compressive strength of the intact rock, as suggested by field experiments performed in the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory. It is also assumed that the deposition holes are completely dry, i.e. without any swelling pressure to support and stabilize the walls. These assumptions are all claimed to be conservative. The stress path for rock in the walls of KBS-3 deposition holes will be different from corresponding stress paths in the field experiments and a small support pressure, possibly sufficient to limit the extent of the spalling, will be found also in dry deposition holes. Transmissivity effects on rock fractures are

  18. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  19. Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

    2004-05-01

    Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

  20. Perceived Health Benefits and Soy Consumption Behavior: Two-Stage Decision Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Wanki; Balasubramanian, Siva K.; Rimal, Arbindra

    2005-01-01

    A two-stage decision model is developed to assess the effect of perceived soy health benefits on consumers' decisions with respect to soy food. The first stage captures whether or not to consume soy food, while the second stage reflects how often to consume. A conceptual/analytical framework is also employed, combining Lancaster's characteristics model and Fishbein's multi-attribute model. Results show that perceived soy health benefits significantly influence both decision stages. Further, c...

  1. Forsmark site investigation. Hydrochemical monitoring of groundwaters and surface waters. Results from water sampling in the Forsmark area, January-December 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Ann-Chatrin (ed.); Berg, Cecilia; Harrstroem, Johan; Joensson, Stig; Thur, Pernilla (Geosigma AB (Sweden)); Borgiel, Micke; Qvarfordt, Susanne (Sveriges Vattenekologer AB (Sweden))

    2010-09-15

    The fifth year (2009) of hydrochemical monitoring of groundwaters, surface waters and precipitation in Forsmark is documented in the report. The hydrochemical monitoring programme 2009 included water sampling from: - percussion- and core boreholes equipped with installations for long-term pressure monitoring, tracer tests and water sampling in packed off borehole sections, sampling and analysis performed twice (spring and autumn), - near surface groundwaters (sampling four times a year), - private wells (once per year in October), - surface waters (eleven sampling occasions per year). Due to the somewhat different performance of the hydrogeochemical monitoring of the deep groundwaters during the autumn 2009 compared to previous years, some new findings and knowledge were obtained: 1) Removal of water volumes corresponding to three to five times the volume of the borehole section (the routine procedure) is seldom enough to obtain a complete exchange of the water present in the borehole section when the pumping starts. 2) It is likely that the elevated sulphide concentrations observed in the monitoring programme /1/ is due to contamination from initial water present in the borehole sections when the pumping starts. This water may have a very high sulphide concentration. Dirty water in tubes and in stand pipes may also contribute to the enhanced sulphide concentration. 3) Plug flow calculations will be introduced in the future as a new routine procedure to estimate the water volumes to be removed, in order to exchange the section water volume, prior to groundwater sampling in delimited borehole sections. During the autumn sampling, sample series of five samples per sampling location were collected during continuous pumping in thirteen selected borehole sections. Furthermore, special efforts were put on cleaning of stand pipes and exchange of water prior to sampling. The analytical protocol was rather extensive and included sulphide and uranium analyses for each sample

  2. Evaluating hydrochemical data from shallow groundwater in Forsmark from a microbiological perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallbeck, Lotta (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2008-03-15

    Oxygen is one of the chemical species that can corrode a copper canister in a KBS-3 repository. It is therefore important to determine whether oxygen dissolved in precipitation or groundwater could reach repository depth by groundwater transport. This matter can be determined by gaining an understanding of the oxygen-consuming microbial processes that take place in shallow groundwater in the area of interest. This report evaluates hydrogeochemical data from shallow groundwater in the Forsmark area from a microbiological perspective. Hydrogeochemical data were gathered from soil pipes at depths from 1.6 to 9.6 m and from percussion-drilled boreholes having mid-point depths of between c. 30 and c. 180 m. Only a few of the percussion-drilled boreholes had packers installed. The sampled sections were therefore very long, allowing groundwater from many different depths to mix. Oxygen and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) were measured in groundwater in soil pipes but not in percussion-drilled boreholes. The poor quality of the oxygen data made it difficult to identify the depth of origin of completely oxygen-free groundwater. Parameters that indicated ongoing anaerobic microbial processes, such as nitrite, ferrous iron, dissolved manganese, and sulphide, were found in many soil pipes. The soil pipes displayed individual chemical profiles in terms of chemical species related to microbial activity. The microbial activity could not be linked to the classes of soil pipe, i.e. recharge, discharge, or intermittent. Existing soil pipes and percussion-drilled boreholes could be used for additional sampling of microbial parameters. Such sampling would benefit from careful hypothesis-driven description of the sampling parameters and experience-guided choice of sampling methods

  3. Evaluating hydrochemical data from shallow groundwater in Forsmark from a microbiological perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallbeck, Lotta (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2008-03-15

    Oxygen is one of the chemical species that can corrode a copper canister in a KBS-3 repository. It is therefore important to determine whether oxygen dissolved in precipitation or groundwater could reach repository depth by groundwater transport. This matter can be determined by gaining an understanding of the oxygen-consuming microbial processes that take place in shallow groundwater in the area of interest. This report evaluates hydrogeochemical data from shallow groundwater in the Forsmark area from a microbiological perspective. Hydrogeochemical data were gathered from soil pipes at depths from 1.6 to 9.6 m and from percussion-drilled boreholes having mid-point depths of between c. 30 and c. 180 m. Only a few of the percussion-drilled boreholes had packers installed. The sampled sections were therefore very long, allowing groundwater from many different depths to mix. Oxygen and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) were measured in groundwater in soil pipes but not in percussion-drilled boreholes. The poor quality of the oxygen data made it difficult to identify the depth of origin of completely oxygen-free groundwater. Parameters that indicated ongoing anaerobic microbial processes, such as nitrite, ferrous iron, dissolved manganese, and sulphide, were found in many soil pipes. The soil pipes displayed individual chemical profiles in terms of chemical species related to microbial activity. The microbial activity could not be linked to the classes of soil pipe, i.e. recharge, discharge, or intermittent. Existing soil pipes and percussion-drilled boreholes could be used for additional sampling of microbial parameters. Such sampling would benefit from careful hypothesis-driven description of the sampling parameters and experience-guided choice of sampling methods

  4. A match-mismatch test of a stage model of behaviour change in tobacco smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, A; Conijn, B; De Vries, H

    2006-01-01

    Aims An innovation offered by stage models of behaviour change is that of stage-matched interventions. Match-mismatch studies are the primary test of this idea but also the primary test of the validity of stage models. This study aimed at conducting such a test among tobacco smokers using the Social

  5. A match-mismatch test of a stage model of behaviour change in tobacco smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, A; Conijn, B; De Vries, H

    2006-01-01

    Aims An innovation offered by stage models of behaviour change is that of stage-matched interventions. Match-mismatch studies are the primary test of this idea but also the primary test of the validity of stage models. This study aimed at conducting such a test among tobacco smokers using the Social

  6. Faculty Development: A Stage Model Matched to Blended Learning Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetters, Michael L.; Duby, Tova Garcia

    2011-01-01

    Faculty development programs are critical to the implementation and support of curriculum innovation. In this case study, the authors present lessons learned from ten years of experience in faculty development programs created to support innovation in technology enhanced learning. Stages of curriculum innovation are matched to stages of faculty…

  7. Error reduction and representation in stages (ERRIS) in hydrological modelling for ensemble streamflow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Wang, Q. J.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.

    2016-09-01

    This study develops a new error modelling method for ensemble short-term and real-time streamflow forecasting, called error reduction and representation in stages (ERRIS). The novelty of ERRIS is that it does not rely on a single complex error model but runs a sequence of simple error models through four stages. At each stage, an error model attempts to incrementally improve over the previous stage. Stage 1 establishes parameters of a hydrological model and parameters of a transformation function for data normalization, Stage 2 applies a bias correction, Stage 3 applies autoregressive (AR) updating, and Stage 4 applies a Gaussian mixture distribution to represent model residuals. In a case study, we apply ERRIS for one-step-ahead forecasting at a range of catchments. The forecasts at the end of Stage 4 are shown to be much more accurate than at Stage 1 and to be highly reliable in representing forecast uncertainty. Specifically, the forecasts become more accurate by applying the AR updating at Stage 3, and more reliable in uncertainty spread by using a mixture of two Gaussian distributions to represent the residuals at Stage 4. ERRIS can be applied to any existing calibrated hydrological models, including those calibrated to deterministic (e.g. least-squares) objectives.

  8. Optimization of an industrial retrofitted heat exchanger network, using a stage-wise model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovac Kralj, Anita [Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, University of Maribor, Smetanova 17, Maribor 2000 (Slovenia)

    2010-12-15

    The heat exchanger network (HEN) can be optimized using the stage-wise model of superstructure representation, as proposed by Yee and Grossmann. This model can be easily solved regarding both trivial problems, and serious and complex new industrial design plants. In this paper, a stage-wise model for new designs is extended for retrofits by using a stage-wise model for a retrofitted HEN. This method using a stage-wise model is very general; it can be used in new designs as well as during existing process integration. The methodology of the stage-wise model for retrofitted HEN can be used to solve HENs easily and well enough, over a short time, and simultaneously. A mathematical model of stage-wise for retrofit HEN can include additional equations and limitations for retrofits. This model was tested by using a retrofitted methanol process generating an additional profit of 189,200 EUR/a. (author)

  9. Three Stage Equilibrium Model for Coal Gasification in Entrained Flow Gasifiers Based on Aspen Plus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG Xiangdong; ZHONG Weimin; DU Wenli; QIAN Feng

    2013-01-01

    A three stage equilibrium model is developed for coal gasification in the Texaco type coal gasifiers based on Aspen Plus to calculate the composition of product gas,carbon conversion,and gasification temperature.The model is divided into three stages including pyrolysis and combustion stage,char gas reaction stage,and gas phase reaction stage.Part of the water produced in the pyrolysis and combustion stage is assumed to be involved in the second stage to react with the unburned carbon.Carbon conversion is then estimated in the second stage by steam participation ratio expressed as a function of temperature.And the gas product compositions are calculated from gas phase reactions in the third stage.The simulation results are consistent with published experimental data.

  10. Basis for applying for exemption according to species protection regulation. Final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark; Underlag till ansoekan om dispens enligt artskyddsfoerordningen. Slutfoervar foer anvaent kaernbraensle i Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-02-15

    SKB will submit applications for permits and admissibility under the Environmental Act and under the Nuclear Activities Act to construct and operate a disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark. In the final repository the spent nuclear fuel from Swedish nuclear power plants is placed in order to protect human health and the environment against harmful effects of ionizing radiation. Construction and operation of the disposal facility in Forsmark will make an impact, give effects and consequences for the natural environment. Utilization of land for the construction of the facility and the impact on ground water as a result of groundwater drainage is expected to have negative consequences for the species included in species protection regulation. Thus, the planned activity require exemption from species protection regulation (SFS 2007:845). The purpose of this document is to provide a basis for an application for exemption under 14 paragraph species protection regulation from the prohibitions of 4, 6, 7 and 8 paragraph species protection regulation. A basis for the exemption application is that the proposed activity is considered to have an 'overriding public interest' prescribed in 14 paragraph species protection regulation. The document reports the impact, effects and consequences of the planned activities on species covered in the species protection regulation. The impact on protected species can be divided into two categories: - Direct effects on protected species and their habitats by utilization of the land. - Indirect effects on protected species and their habitats in the drainage of groundwater and the effect on groundwater levels. The document also includes a description of planned actions to prevent, restrict and compensate for the effects and consequences that the activity may cause. By applying for an exemption under 14 paragraph species protection regulation in a separate order from the application for permit according to chapters 9

  11. Research on Multi-Stage Inventory Model by Markov Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Ke

    This paper researched multi-stage inventory system and established limited inventory Markov model, on the other hand it induced DP algorithm of limited inventory Markov model. The results proved that the reorder point of multi-stage inventory system can guarantee demand, and also allows the storage costs to a minimum level in accordance with the above model.

  12. A study on landscape and the historical geography of two areas - Oskarshamn and Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Ulf; Berg, Johan; Bjoerklund, Annika [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Human Geography

    2004-06-01

    The aim of this project is to investigate the land-use; the settlement and the way people have used and affected the landscape in two areas, Forsmark and Simpevarp. This preliminary report aim mainly at describing the sources and methods used in the project. Some analyses are undertaken, but a more complete interpretation will take place in the final report of Phase two. This is a project that forms a part of the environmental impact assessment work that is done for examining potential locations for a plant for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both areas are located on the East Coast of Sweden. A number of scientific studies are carried out in this project. Fields that are included studies for the EIA and the safety assessment include geology, quaternary geology, limnology, biology and other natural sciences that focus on vegetation and the terrestrial as well as the aquatic environment.The study that is carried out at the Department of Human geography at Stockholm university is basically a study of the historical land-use, the changes in settlement and how people have been working and using the landscape over the last centuries.The methods used include historical maps, cadastral material and in a later phase interviews and fieldwork. In the first phase that ends the summer 2004 the bulk of the historical material is probed and analysed. A big effort is put into the creation of GIS-data sets that can be used for further analyses. The work during spring 2004 resulted in this preliminary report that deal with historical land-use, population, settlement from medieval times to the present and both detailed and general descriptions and investigations of the historical geography of the areas.Both the investigated areas are located by the Baltic, but are very different both physically, especially with the land upheaval in the north, and historically with a different land-use system, ownership structure and distribution of settlement. The results of this study

  13. Reflection seismic imaging of a hydraulically conductive fracture zone in a high noise area, Forsmark, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhlin, C.; Stephens, M. B.; Cosma, C.

    2007-05-01

    High resolution reflection seismic methods have proven to be useful tools for locating fracture zones in crystalline rock. Siting of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories is a particularly important application of these methods. By using small explosive sources (15-75 grams), high resolution images of the sub-surface have been obtained in the depth range 100 m to 2 km in Sweden, Canada and elsewhere. Although ambient noise conditions in areas such as the Fennoscandian and Canadian shields are generally low, industrial noise can be high in some areas, particularly at potential sites suitable for repositories, since these are often close to existing infrastructure. In addition, the presence of this infrastructure limits the choice of sources available to the geophysicist. Forsmark, located about 140 km north of Stockholm, is one such potential site where reflection seismics have been carried out. Existing infrastructure includes nuclear reactors for power generation and a low- level waste repository. In the vicinity of the reactors, it was not possible to use an explosive source due to permitting restrictions. Instead, a VIBSIST system consisting of a tractor mounted hydraulic hammer was used in the vicinity of the reactors. By repeatedly hitting the pavement, without breaking it, at predefined sweeps and then stacking the signals, shot records comparable to explosive data could be generated. These shot records were then processed using standard methods to produce stacked sections along 3 profiles within the reactor area. Clear reflections are seen in the uppermost 600 m along 3 of these profiles. Correlation of crossing profiles shows that the strongest reflection (B8) is generated by a gently east-southeast dipping interface. Prior to construction of the reactors, several boreholes were drilled to investigate the bedrock in the area. One of these boreholes was located close to where two of the profiles cross. Projection of the B8 reflection into the

  14. An experimentally validated simulation model for a four-stage spray dryer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2017-01-01

    is divided into four consecutive stages: a primary spray drying stage, two heated fluid bed stages, and a cooling fluid bed stage. Each of these stages in the model is assumed ideally mixed and the dynamics are described by mass- and energy balances. These balance equations are coupled with constitutive...... equations such as a thermodynamic model, the water evaporation rate, the heat transfer rates, and an equation for the stickiness of the powder (glass transition temperature). Laboratory data is used to model the equilibrium moisture content and the glass transition temperature of the powder. The resulting...... mathematical model is an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE) model with 12 states, 9 inputs, 8 disturbances, and 30 parameters. The parameters in the model are identified from well-excited experimental data obtained from the industrialtype spray dryer. The simulated outputs ofthe model are validated...

  15. Structural neuroimaging across early-stage psychosis: Aberrations in neurobiological trajectories and implications for the staging model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomeusz, Cali F; Cropley, Vanessa L; Wannan, Cassandra; Di Biase, Maria; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos

    2017-05-01

    This review critically examines the structural neuroimaging evidence in psychotic illness, with a focus on longitudinal imaging across the first-episode psychosis and ultra-high-risk of psychosis illness stages. A thorough search of the literature involving specifically longitudinal neuroimaging in early illness stages of psychosis was conducted. The evidence supporting abnormalities in brain morphology and altered neurodevelopmental trajectories is discussed in the context of a clinical staging model. In general, grey matter (and, to a lesser extent, white matter) declines across multiple frontal, temporal (especially superior regions), insular and parietal regions during the first episode of psychosis, which has a steeper trajectory than that of age-matched healthy counterparts. Although the ultra-high-risk of psychosis literature is considerably mixed, evidence indicates that certain volumetric structural aberrations predate psychotic illness onset (e.g. prefrontal cortex thinning), while other abnormalities present in ultra-high-risk of psychosis populations are potentially non-psychosis-specific (e.g. hippocampal volume reductions). We highlight the advantages of longitudinal designs, discuss the implications such studies have on clinical staging and provide directions for future research.

  16. Hydrogeological flux scenarios at Forsmark. Generic numerical flow simulations and compilation of climatic information for use in the safety analysis SFR1 SAR-08

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (Bergab, Goeteborg (SE)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE)); Hartikainen, Juha (Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Helsinki (FI)); Svensson, Urban (CFE AB, Karlskrona (SE))

    2007-11-15

    In the earlier modelling for SFR-SAFE it was concluded that the groundwater flow would increase with time along with the shoreline displacement. Even though the numerical results are different the same conclusion is drawn after this study. General conclusions from the present study are that: The upper boundary conditions have a significant impact on the groundwater flow in the geosphere. The characteristic of the surface in regards of being a recharge or discharge area affects the results. In general, a discharge area will experience an increase in groundwater flow under changed conditions. The presence of caging fracture zones affects the results, and, for the tested un-frozen SFR situation, the resulting effect is an increase in groundwater flow. Specific conclusions regarding the relative change of groundwater flow due to different surface conditions are that: The permafrost scenarios, along with the development from sporadic permafrost to continuous permafrost, yield increased groundwater flows in unfrozen parts of the domain. The increase is one order of magnitude or less. In the permafrost, the flow is negligible. The ice sheet scenarios yield situations with significantly increased groundwater flow. The results indicate an increase by two to three orders of magnitude. These increased values, however, apply only for short duration intervals. It is possible that such intervals may be only a couple of years. In the selected climate Base variant, repeating the conditions for the last glacial cycle, permafrost conditions occur after 8,000 years. In the climate variant affected by increased greenhouse warming, permafrost conditions do not occur until after more than 50,000 years. In the chosen climate variants, ice sheets reach the Forsmark area and cause significantly increased groundwater flow, after approx60,000 years or more

  17. Three-stage approach for dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆化普; 孙智源; 屈闻聪

    2016-01-01

    In order to describe the characteristics of dynamic traffic flow and improve the robustness of its multiple applications, a dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model (DTTS) is established. With consideration of the temporal correlation, spatial correlation and historical correlation, a basic DTTS model is built. And a three-stage approach is put forward for the simplification and calibration of the basic DTTS model. Through critical sections pre-selection and critical time pre-selection, the first stage reduces the variable number of the basic DTTS model. In the second stage, variable coefficient calibration is implemented based on basic model simplification and stepwise regression analysis. Aimed at dynamic noise estimation, the characteristics of noise are summarized and an extreme learning machine is presented in the third stage. A case study based on a real-world road network in Beijing, China, is carried out to test the efficiency and applicability of proposed DTTS model and the three-stage approach.

  18. Stability of an HIV/AIDS Treatment Model with Different Stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Feng Huo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An HIV/AIDS treatment model with different stages is proposed in this paper. The stage of the HIV infection is divided into two stages, that is, HIV-positive in the asymptomatic stage of HIV infection and HIV-positive individuals in the pre-AIDS stage. The fact that some individuals with HIV-positive individuals after the treatment can be transformed into the compartment of HIV-positive individuals in the asymptomatic stage of HIV infection, the compartment of HIV-positive individuals in the pre-AIDS stage, or the compartment of individuals with full-blown AIDS is also considered. Mathematical analyses establish the idea that the global dynamics of the HIV/AIDS model are determined by the basic reproduction number R0. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R01 for a special case. Numerical simulations are also conducted to support the analytic results.

  19. Testing the transtheoretical model for fruit intake: comparing web-based tailored stage-matched and stage-mismatched feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vet, Emely; de Nooijer, Jascha; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

    2008-04-01

    A match-mismatch test was conducted to test the transtheoretical model applied to fruit intake. Precontemplators and contemplators were randomly assigned to receive a web-based individualized precontemplation feedback (PCF), contemplation feedback (CF) or action feedback (AF) letter promoting fruit intake. Immediately and 1 week after reading this letter, post-test measures were obtained. Fruit intake increased significantly between pre- and post-test in contemplators, but not in precontemplators. No differences between the feedback conditions were found in fruit intake, stage progression, use or credibility of the feedback in precontemplators and contemplators. In precontemplators, also no differences between the conditions were found in personal relevance of the feedback. Contemplators, however, rated AF as more personally relevant than PCF or CF. To conclude, the present study failed to show superiority of stage-matched information in the promotion of fruit intake.

  20. Counseling Family Members of Addicts/Alcoholics: The Stages of Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wormer, Katherine

    2008-01-01

    This article adapts the stages of change model, a model in which specific interventions of harm reduction are directed toward the client's readiness for treatment, as a guiding framework for counseling family members of alcoholics/addicts. Interventions at each stage of the family's readiness for change, from precontemplation to action, are…

  1. Solid/liquid partition coefficients (Kd) for selected soils and sediments at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheppard, Steve; Long, Jeff; Sanipelli, Barb (ECOMatters Inc., Pinawa (Canada)); Sohlenius, Gustav (Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU), Uppsala (Sweden))

    2009-03-15

    Soil and sediment solid/liquid partition coefficients (Kd) are used to indicate the relative mobility of radionuclides and elements of concern from nuclear fuel waste, as well as from other sources. The Kd data are inherently extremely variable, but also vary systematically with key environmental attributes. For soil Kd, the key variables are pH, clay content and organic carbon content. For sediment Kd, water type (freshwater versus marine) and sediment type (benthic versus suspended) are important. This report summarized Kd data for soils and sediments computed from indigenous stable element concentrations measured at the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp sites. These were then compared to several literature sources of Kd data for Ce, Cl, Co, Cr, Cs, Fe, Ho, I, La, Mn, Mo, Nb, Nd, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pu, Ra, Sb, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, Tm, U and Yb. The Kd data computed from indigenous stable element concentrations may be especially relevant for assessment of long-lived radionuclides from deep disposal of waste, because the long time frame for the potential releases is more consistent with the steady state measured using indigenous stable elements. For almost every one of these elements in soils, a statistically meaningful regression equation was developed to allow estimation of Kd for any soil given a modest amount of information about the soil. Nonetheless, the median residual geometric standard deviation (GSD) was 4.3-fold, implying confidence bounds of about 18-fold above and below the best estimate Kd. For sediment, the values are categorised simply by water type and sediment type. The median GSD for sediment Kd as measured at the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp sites was 2.5-fold, but the median GSD among literature values was as high as 8.6-fold. Clearly, there remains considerable uncertainty in Kd values, and it is important to account for this in assessment applications

  2. In vivo research using early life stage models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seabra, Rita; Bhogal, Nirmala

    2010-01-01

    Scientists, for a variety of reasons, need to carry out in vivo research. Since experiments that require the use of adult animals pose various logistical, economical and ethical issues, the use of embryonic and larval forms of some organisms are potentially attractive alternatives. Early life stages are appealing because, in general, large numbers of individuals can be maintained in relatively simple housing, minimising costs, and their use involves fewer legal formalities. With this succinct review, we aim to provide an overview of different biological issues that have been successfully explored with the help of eggs, embryos and larvae from the frog, zebrafish and chicken.

  3. Time-dependent sleep stage transition model based on heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Toki; Mizuno, Osamu; Tanaka, Tomohiro

    2015-01-01

    A new model is proposed to automatically classify sleep stages using heart rate variability (HRV). The generative model, based on the characteristics that the distribution and the transition probabilities of sleep stages depend on the elapsed time from the beginning of sleep, infers the sleep stage with a Gibbs sampler. Experiments were conducted using a public data set consisting of 45 healthy subjects and the model's classification accuracy was evaluated for three sleep stages: wake state, rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and non-REM sleep. Experimental results demonstrated that the model provides more accurate sleep stage classification than conventional (naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine) models that do not take the above characteristics into account. Our study contributes to improve the quality of sleep monitoring in the daily life using easy-to-wear HRV sensors.

  4. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 1274 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  5. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 878 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  6. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 2747 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  7. Modelled Stage Elevation Shoreline 708 m3s

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from...

  8. The Transtheoretical model for fruit, vegetable and fish consumption: associations between intakes, stages of change and stage transition determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Vries Nanne K

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases are caused by multiple behavioral factors, including different dietary factors. We examined to what extent fruit, vegetable and fish consumption are related, and whether behavioral determinants vary across these dietary behaviors from a Transtheoretical model perspective. Methods Data were collected among 1142 participants (T0; response rate 46% selected from an Internet panel, who were followed-up one-week later (T1; N = 1055, response rate 92%. Mean age was 35.4 (SD = 11.9 years, 35% was male, and most respondents were of Dutch origin (90%. Of the respondents, 13%, 44% and 43% had a low, medium or high level of education, respectively. Electronic questionnaires assessed fruit, vegetable and fish intake (food frequency questionnaires, stages of change, decisional balance and self-efficacy, for each of these three behaviors. Results Stages of change and (changes in fruit, vegetable and fish intake were only weakly associated; decisional balance and self-efficacy were more strongly associated. Some presumed predictors of stage transitions were similar for fruit, vegetable, and fish intake, i.e., strong pros predicted progress out of precontemplators and low self-efficacy predicted relapse from action/maintenance for all behaviors. However, progress out of contemplation and out of preparation showed different patterns for fruit, vegetable and fish intake. Conclusion The weak associations between intakes and potential determinants for fruit, vegetable, and fish consumption do not warrant an integrated dietary change approach targeting the same determinants for each behavior.

  9. Staged diabetes management. Toward an integrated model of diabetes care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazze, R S; Etzwiler, D D; Strock, E; Peterson, K; McClave, C R; Meszaros, J F; Leigh, C; Owens, L W; Deeb, L C; Peterson, A

    1994-06-01

    This paper introduces a new and innovative approach to diabetes management in the primary-care setting. Staged diabetes management (SDM) represents a four-year effort to develop and test a data-based approach to diabetes management that could be easily adapted to a variety of health-care settings in which diabetes management is principally under the direction of primary-care physicians was limited access to specialists. After testing under controlled circumstances at the International Diabetes Center (Minneapolis, MN), SDM was subjected to substantial field trials under conditions that represent the scope and variety of primary-care practices in diabetes. The following represents the work of several investigators who independently undertook a review of SDM.

  10. Estimation of Large-Scale Implicit Models Using 2-Stage Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Henriksen

    1985-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of estimating large scale implicit (non-recursive models by two- stage methods is considered. The first stage of the methods is used to construct or estimate an explicit form of the total model, by constructing a minimal stochastic realization of the system. This model is then subsequently used in the second stage to generate instrumental variables for the purpose of estimating each sub-model separately. This latter stage can be carried out by utilizing a generalized least squares method, but most emphasis is put on utilizing decentralized filtering algorithms and a prediction error formulation. A note about the connection between the original TSLS-method (two-stage least squares method and stochastic realization is also made.

  11. Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, R; van Nierop, E; van Heerde, HJ; Wedel, M; Franses, PH; Alsem, KJ

    2005-01-01

    We present a statistical model for voter choice that incorporates a consideration set stage and final vote intention stage. The first stage involves a multivariate probit (MVP) model to describe the probabilities that a candidate or a party gets considered. The second stage of the model is a

  12. A Quaternary-Stage User Interest Model Based on User Browsing Behavior and Web Page Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongli Jiang; Hang Su

    2012-01-01

    The key to personalized search engine lies in user model. Traditional personalized model results in that the search results of secondary search are partial to the long-term interests, besides, forgetting to the long-term interests disenables effective recollection of user interests. This paper presents a quaternary-stage user interest model based on user browsing behavior and web page classification, which consults the principles of cache and recycle bin in operating system, by setting up an illuminating text-stage and a recycle bin interest-stage in front and rear of the traditional interest model respectively to constitute the quaternary-stage user interest model. The model can better reflect the user interests, by using an adaptive natural weight and its calculation method, and by efficiently integrating user browsing behavior and web document content.

  13. Beyond two-stage models for lung carcinogenesis in the Mayak workers: implications for plutonium risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Zöllner

    Full Text Available Mechanistic multi-stage models are used to analyze lung-cancer mortality after Plutonium exposure in the Mayak-workers cohort, with follow-up until 2008. Besides the established two-stage model with clonal expansion, models with three mutation stages as well as a model with two distinct pathways to cancer are studied. The results suggest that three-stage models offer an improved description of the data. The best-fitting models point to a mechanism where radiation increases the rate of clonal expansion. This is interpreted in terms of changes in cell-cycle control mediated by bystander signaling or repopulation following cell killing. No statistical evidence for a two-pathway model is found. To elucidate the implications of the different models for radiation risk, several exposure scenarios are studied. Models with a radiation effect at an early stage show a delayed response and a pronounced drop-off with older ages at exposure. Moreover, the dose-response relationship is strongly nonlinear for all three-stage models, revealing a marked increase above a critical dose.

  14. Modelling a Compliant-Based Precise Positioning Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giedrius Augustinavičius

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents modelling precise dual axis flexure-based precision positioning systems for micro-positioning applications. The positioning system is featured with monolithic architecture, flexure-based joints and piezo stacks. Its workspace has been evaluated via analytical approaches. Amplification mechanism is optimally designed. The mathematical model of the positioning system has been derived and verified by resorting to finite element analysis (FEA. The established analytical and (FEA models are helpful for optimizing reliable architecture and improving the performance of the positioning system.

  15. Modelling and Control of the Multi-stage Cable Pulley-driven Flexible-joint Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Phongsaen Pitakwatchara

    2014-01-01

    This work is concerned with the task space impedance control of a robot driven through a multi-stage nonlinear flexible transmission system. Specifically, a two degrees-of-freedom cable pulley-driven flexible-joint robot is considered. Realistic modelling of the system is developed within the bond graph modelling framework. The model captures the nonlinear compliance behaviour of the multi-stage cable pulley transmission system, the spring effect of the augmented counterbalancing mechanism, t...

  16. Analysing outsourcing policies in an asset management context: a six-stage model

    OpenAIRE

    Schoenmaker, R.; Verlaan, J.G.

    2013-01-01

    Asset managers of civil infrastructure are increasingly outsourcing their maintenance. Whereas maintenance is a cyclic process, decisions to outsource decisions are often project-based, and confusing the discussion on the degree of outsourcing. This paper presents a six-stage model that facilitates the top-down discussion for analysing the degree of outsourcing maintenance. The model is based on the cyclic nature of maintenance. The six-stage model can: (1) give clear statements about the pre...

  17. Brittle tectonothermal evolution in the Forsmark area, central Fennoscandian Shield, recorded by paragenesis, orientation and 40Ar/ 39Ar geochronology of fracture minerals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Björn; Tullborg, Eva-Lena; Larson, Sven Åke; Page, Laurence

    2009-12-01

    In this paper, we show how studies of fracture mineral paragenesis, their orientation and 40Ar/ 39Ar geochronology can be applied in order to recognise the brittle tectonothermal evolution in an area. Samples were selected from nearly 18 km of drill cores from the upper 1 km of the Fennoscandian Shield obtained during the site investigation for a repository of spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, central Sweden. Four major events of fracturing and/or reactivation of fractures associated with fracture mineralisation have been distinguished. The first event was characterised by precipitation of epidote, quartz and chlorite, along preferably sub-horizontal and gently-dipping fractures or steep, WNW-ESE to NW-SE fractures. Precipitation occurred between 1.8 and 1.1 Ga, possibly during the late stage of the Svecokarelian orogeny close to 1.8-1.7 Ga. The second event is associated with precipitation of hematite-stained adularia and albite, prehnite, laumontite, calcite and chlorite, preferably along steep, ENE-WSW to NNE-SSW and NNW-SSE fractures. Precipitation occurred around 1107 ± 7 to 1034 ± 3 Ma, probably due to effects from the Sveconorwegian orogeny. This event was followed by a period with dissolution of fracture minerals and subsequent precipitation of mainly calcite, quartz, pyrite and asphaltite during the Palaeozoic. The formation fluid emanated from an overlying organic-rich sedimentary cover. Precipitation occurred during reactivation of Proterozoic fractures, but formation of new fractures is also inferred, possibly due to far-field effects of the Caledonian orogeny, or elevated hydrostatic pressure due to its foreland basin. The latest event is dominated by clay minerals, chlorite and calcite along hydraulically conductive fractures. These minerals are prominent along sub-horizontal and gently-dipping fractures, but also occur in sets of steeply-dipping fractures. It is inferred that the hydraulically conductive fractures are Proterozoic structures in which

  18. Evaluation of a prognostic model for risk of relapse in stage I seminoma surveillance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chung, Peter; Daugaard, Gedske; Tyldesley, Scott

    2015-01-01

    A prognostic model for relapse risk in stage I seminoma managed by surveillance after orchiectomy has been developed but has not been independently validated. Individual data on 685 stage I seminoma surveillance patients managed between 1998 and 2005 at three cancer centers were retrospectively...... useful, highly discriminating prognostic model remains elusive in stage I seminoma surveillance as we were unable to validate the previously developed model. However, primary tumor size retained prognostic importance and a scale of relapse risk based on the unit increment of tumor size was developed...

  19. [Prognostic model of the space station contamination stage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotovol'skiĭ, V M; Smolenskaia, G S

    1998-01-01

    Forty two non-metallic materials, 8 human metabolites and a process liquid (ethylene glycol) were selected for development of a prognostic model of space station contamination by harmful trace admixtures (HTAs). Removal technologies made allowance for absorption by atmospheric condensate (AC) and filter adsorption. Calculations took in 18 HTAs representative of 8 classes of compounds. Simulation modeling allowed to determine HTA migration rates and percent ratio (1), calculate concentrations of contaminants in the atmosphere and atmospheric condensate (2), and to assess filter efficiency by comparison of loads on the filter and a refrigeration/drying set (3). Comparison of empirical and measured data permitted conclusions about adequacy of the model and its potentiality for predicting ramifications of nominal and contingency situations.

  20. Targeted labeling of early-​stage tumor spheroid in chorioallantoic membrane model with upconversion nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Liu; J.A. Holz; Y. Ding; X. Liu; Y. Zhang; L. Tu; X. Kong; B. Priem; A. Nadort; S.A.G. Lambrechts; M.C.G. Aalders; W.J. Buma; Y. Liu; H. Zhang

    2015-01-01

    In vivo detection of cancer at early-​stage, i.e. smaller than 2 mm, is a challenge in biomedicine. In this work target labeling of early-​stage tumor spheroid (∼500 μm) is realized for the first time in chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model with monoclonal antibody functionalized upconv

  1. Relations of Transtheoretical Model Stage, Self-Efficacy, and Voluntary Physical Activity in African American Preadolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annesi, James J.; Faigenbaum, Avery D.; Westcott, Wayne L.

    2010-01-01

    The transtheoretical model (TTM; Prochaska, DiClemente, & Norcross, 1992) suggests that, at any point, an individual is in one of five stages-of-change related to adopting a behavior. People sequentially advance in stage but may also maintain or even regress, based on personal and environmental factors (Nigg, 2005). A classic study published in…

  2. Why Are There Developmental Stages in Language Learning? A Developmental Robotics Model of Language Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Anthony F.; Cangelosi, Angelo

    2017-01-01

    Most theories of learning would predict a gradual acquisition and refinement of skills as learning progresses, and while some highlight exponential growth, this fails to explain why natural cognitive development typically progresses in stages. Models that do span multiple developmental stages typically have parameters to "switch" between…

  3. Relations of Transtheoretical Model Stage, Self-Efficacy, and Voluntary Physical Activity in African American Preadolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annesi, James J.; Faigenbaum, Avery D.; Westcott, Wayne L.

    2010-01-01

    The transtheoretical model (TTM; Prochaska, DiClemente, & Norcross, 1992) suggests that, at any point, an individual is in one of five stages-of-change related to adopting a behavior. People sequentially advance in stage but may also maintain or even regress, based on personal and environmental factors (Nigg, 2005). A classic study published in…

  4. Why Are There Developmental Stages in Language Learning? A Developmental Robotics Model of Language Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Anthony F.; Cangelosi, Angelo

    2017-01-01

    Most theories of learning would predict a gradual acquisition and refinement of skills as learning progresses, and while some highlight exponential growth, this fails to explain why natural cognitive development typically progresses in stages. Models that do span multiple developmental stages typically have parameters to "switch" between…

  5. Building performance simulation in the early design stage: An introduction to integrated dynamic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negendahl, Kristoffer

    2015-01-01

    Designing with building performance simulation feedback in the early design stage has existed since the early days of computational modeling. However, as a consequence of a fragmented building industry building performance simulations (BPSs) in the early design stage are closely related to who is...

  6. A developmental model of hierarchical stage structure in objective moral judgements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Boom; P.C.M. Molenaar

    1989-01-01

    A hierarchical structural model of moral judgment is proposed in which an S is characterized as occupying a particular moral stage. During development, the S's characteristic stage progresses along a latent, ordered dimension in an age-dependent way. Evaluation of prototypic statements representativ

  7. Novel three-stage kinetic model for aqueous benzene adsorption on activated carbon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jae-Woo; Choi, Nag-Choul; Lee, Soon-Jae; Kim, Dong-Ju

    2007-10-15

    We propose a novel kinetic model for adsorption of aqueous benzene onto both granular activated carbon (GAC) and powdered activated carbon (PAC). The model is based on mass conservation of benzene coupled with three-stage adsorption: (1) the first portion for an instantaneous stage or external surface adsorption, (2) the second portion for a gradual stage with rate-limiting intraparticle diffusion, and (3) the third portion for a constant stage in which the aqueous phase no longer interacts with activated carbon. An analytical solution of the kinetic model was validated with the kinetic data obtained from aqueous benzene adsorption onto GAC and PAC in batch experiments with two different solution concentrations (C(0)=300 mg L(-1), 600 mg L(-1)). Experimental results revealed that benzene adsorption for the two concentrations followed three distinct stages for PAC but two stages for GAC. The analytical solution could successfully describe the kinetic adsorption of aqueous benzene in the batch reaction system, showing a fast instantaneous adsorption followed by a slow rate-limiting adsorption and a final long constant adsorption. Use of the two-stage model gave incorrect values of adsorption coefficients in the analytical solution due to inability to describe the third stage.

  8. Scrum integration in stage-gate models for collaborative product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Anita Friis; Slavensky, Andreas; Nguyen, Vivi Thuy

    2013-01-01

    to differentiate from low-cost competitors and increase PD performance, some industrial manufacturers now seek competitive advantage by experimenting with new ways for collaborative PD. This includes integrating customer-focused agile process models, like Scrum, from the software industry into their existing PD...... models. Thus, instead of replacing traditional stage-gate models agile methods are currently integrated in existing PD models generating hybrid solution for collaborative PD. This paper includes a study of three industrial cases that have successfully integrated Scrum into a stage-gate process model...... for collaborative PD. The paper introduces the three functional hybrid models, including impact on PD performance, PD roles and customer collaboration....

  9. The Media Adoption Stage Model of Technology for Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Brent Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study examined survey data from professional credentialed members of the American Art Therapy Association and 8 follow up interviews to determine how art therapists adopt or reject technology and/or new digital media for therapeutic use with their clients. Using Rogers's (2003) "diffusion of innovation" model, the author identified a…

  10. Dynamic Modelling of a Single Stage Cylindrical Gearbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltan Korka

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Gearboxes are frequently used in machine systems for power transmission, speed variation and/or working direction. Dynamic modelling of gear vibration offers a better understanding of the vibration generation mechanisms as well as the dynamic behaviour of the gear transmission in the presence of gear tooth damage.

  11. [Classification of human sleep stages based on EEG processing using hidden Markov models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroshenkov, L G; Konyshev, V A; Selishchev, S V

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this work was to describe an automated system for classification of human sleep stages. Classification of sleep stages is an important problem of diagnosis and treatment of human sleep disorders. The developed classification method is based on calculation of characteristics of the main sleep rhythms. It uses hidden Markov models. The method is highly accurate and provides reliable identification of the main stages of sleep. The results of automatic classification are in good agreement with the results of sleep stage identification performed by an expert somnologist using Rechtschaffen and Kales rules. This substantiates the applicability of the developed classification system to clinical diagnosis.

  12. A model for a liquid membrane separation stage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    The coupled mixer-settlers having a common settling zone suggested for use to extract fission products from a conversion reactor blanket are analogues of membrane apparatuses and at a first glance in terms of hydrodynamics do not differ from conventional mixer-settlers. However, the common settling zone complicates both the design solutions and their modelling. For example, different emulsion types can result in mixers and it is not known how this fact will affect phenomena such as separation rates, disperse phase entrainment under conditions close to flooding. For initial studies of the feasibility of the process in principle and the primary optimization of the structure of the transfer scheme one needs to have a model and a program to calculate the statics of a multistage membrane facility of this type.

  13. The discovery of processing stages: analyzing EEG data with hidden semi-Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borst, Jelmer P; Anderson, John R

    2015-03-01

    In this paper we propose a new method for identifying processing stages in human information processing. Since the 1860s scientists have used different methods to identify processing stages, usually based on reaction time (RT) differences between conditions. To overcome the limitations of RT-based methods we used hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) to analyze EEG data. This HSMM-EEG methodology can identify stages of processing and how they vary with experimental condition. By combining this information with the brain signatures of the identified stages one can infer their function, and deduce underlying cognitive processes. To demonstrate the method we applied it to an associative recognition task. The stage-discovery method indicated that three major processes play a role in associative recognition: a familiarity process, an associative retrieval process, and a decision process. We conclude that the new stage-discovery method can provide valuable insight into human information processing.

  14. TWO-STAGE DECISION MODEL OF SOY FOOD CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Rimal, Arbindra; Balasubramanian, Siva K.; Moon, Wanki

    2004-01-01

    Our study examined the role of soy health benefits in consumers' soy consumption decision. Given the large number of respondents who reported no consumption of soy products per month, it was important to model the decision of whether or not to participate in soy market separately from the consumption intensity decision. Estimation results demonstrate that knowledge of health benefits affects both the likelihood of participation and consumption intensity. That is, consumers with higher soy hea...

  15. Variation transmission model for setting acceptance criteria in a multi-staged pharmaceutical manufacturing process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes, Richard O

    2012-03-01

    Pharmaceutical manufacturing processes consist of a series of stages (e.g., reaction, workup, isolation) to generate the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). Outputs at intermediate stages (in-process control) and API need to be controlled within acceptance criteria to assure final drug product quality. In this paper, two methods based on tolerance interval to derive such acceptance criteria will be evaluated. The first method is serial worst case (SWC), an industry risk minimization strategy, wherein input materials and process parameters of a stage are fixed at their worst-case settings to calculate the maximum level expected from the stage. This maximum output then becomes input to the next stage wherein process parameters are again fixed at worst-case setting. The procedure is serially repeated throughout the process until the final stage. The calculated limits using SWC can be artificially high and may not reflect the actual process performance. The second method is the variation transmission (VT) using autoregressive model, wherein variation transmitted up to a stage is estimated by accounting for the recursive structure of the errors at each stage. Computer simulations at varying extent of variation transmission and process stage variability are performed. For the scenarios tested, VT method is demonstrated to better maintain the simulated confidence level and more precisely estimate the true proportion parameter than SWC. Real data examples are also presented that corroborate the findings from the simulation. Overall, VT is recommended for setting acceptance criteria in a multi-staged pharmaceutical manufacturing process.

  16. Late stages of stellar evolution in population models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraston, Claudia

    2015-04-01

    My contribution to Roger's celebration symposium focuses on the treatment of late stellar evolutionary phases in stellar population models, reviewing the state of art and discussing some very recent developments, ranging from local stellar clusters up to distant galaxies at high redshift. I shall focus in particular on the Thermally Pulsating Asymptotic Giant Branch, about which a vivid discussion has been ongoing since a few years. I shall present renewed evidence in favour of a sizable contribution from this phase for matching the observed spectral energy distribution of distant massive galaxies. I shall also discuss the possible reasons why such a conclusion has been controversial in the recent literature. Stellar population models are the magic tool to shape the physics of galaxies out of their observed light, and enter virtually all papers presented at this symposium. In a collective effort to properly treat all relevant aspects of the modelling, we split the discussion into six contributions given by experts in the field, as our present to Roger and his outstanding career.

  17. Marginal estimation for multi-stage models: waiting time distributions and competing risks analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satten, Glen A; Datta, Somnath

    2002-01-15

    We provide non-parametric estimates of the marginal cumulative distribution of stage occupation times (waiting times) and non-parametric estimates of marginal cumulative incidence function (proportion of persons who leave stage j for stage j' within time t of entering stage j) using right-censored data from a multi-stage model. We allow for stage and path dependent censoring where the censoring hazard for an individual may depend on his or her natural covariate history such as the collection of stages visited before the current stage and their occupation times. Additional external time dependent covariates that may induce dependent censoring can also be incorporated into our estimates, if available. Our approach requires modelling the censoring hazard so that an estimate of the integrated censoring hazard can be used in constructing the estimates of the waiting times distributions. For this purpose, we propose the use of an additive hazard model which results in very flexible (robust) estimates. Examples based on data from burn patients and simulated data with tracking are also provided to demonstrate the performance of our estimators.

  18. ANALYSIS OF AN SI EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR TRANSMISSION AND STAGE STRUCTURE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆忠华; 高淑京; 陈兰荪

    2003-01-01

    A disease transmission model of SI type with stage structure is formulated.The stability of disease free equilibrium, the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equi-librium, the existence of a global attractor are investigated.

  19. Three stage maturity model in SME’s toward industry 4.0

    OpenAIRE

    Jaione Ganzarain; Nekane Errasti

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To address the challenges regarding the concept of Industry 4.0 and the diversification methodology and based on the strategic guidance towards Industry 4.0, we propose a process model as a guiding framework for Industry 4.0 collaborative diversification vision, strategy and action building. In this paper we suggest a stage process model to guide and train companies to identify new opportunities for diversification within Industry 4.0. Systematically carrying out the stages will take...

  20. Numerical and experimental modelling of the centrifugal compressor stage – setting the model of impellers with 2D blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matas Richard

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a description of results from research and development of a radial compressor stage. The experimental compressor and used numerical models are briefly described. In the first part, the comparisons of characteristics obtained experimentally and by numerical simulations for stage with vaneless diffuser are described. In the second part, the results for stage with vanned diffuser are presented. The results are relevant for next studies in research and development process.

  1. Modelling early stages of relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruggieri M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we model early time dynamics of relativistic heavy ion collisions by an initial color-electric field which then decays to a plasma by the Schwinger mechanism. The dynamics of the many particles system produced by the decay is described by relativistic kinetic theory, taking into account the backreaction on the color field by solving self-consistently the kinetic and the field equations. Our main results concern isotropization and thermalization for a 1+1D expanding geometry. In case of small η/s (η/s ≲ 0.3 we find τisotropization ≈ 0.8 fm/c and τthermalization ≈ 1 fm/c in agreement with the common lore of hydrodynamics.

  2. Loss Function Based Ranking in Two-Stage, Hierarchical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Rongheng; Louis, Thomas A.; Paddock, Susan M.; Ridgeway, Greg

    2009-01-01

    Performance evaluations of health services providers burgeons. Similarly, analyzing spatially related health information, ranking teachers and schools, and identification of differentially expressed genes are increasing in prevalence and importance. Goals include valid and efficient ranking of units for profiling and league tables, identification of excellent and poor performers, the most differentially expressed genes, and determining “exceedances” (how many and which unit-specific true parameters exceed a threshold). These data and inferential goals require a hierarchical, Bayesian model that accounts for nesting relations and identifies both population values and random effects for unit-specific parameters. Furthermore, the Bayesian approach coupled with optimizing a loss function provides a framework for computing non-standard inferences such as ranks and histograms. Estimated ranks that minimize Squared Error Loss (SEL) between the true and estimated ranks have been investigated. The posterior mean ranks minimize SEL and are “general purpose,” relevant to a broad spectrum of ranking goals. However, other loss functions and optimizing ranks that are tuned to application-specific goals require identification and evaluation. For example, when the goal is to identify the relatively good (e.g., in the upper 10%) or relatively poor performers, a loss function that penalizes classification errors produces estimates that minimize the error rate. We construct loss functions that address this and other goals, developing a unified framework that facilitates generating candidate estimates, comparing approaches and producing data analytic performance summaries. We compare performance for a fully parametric, hierarchical model with Gaussian sampling distribution under Gaussian and a mixture of Gaussians prior distributions. We illustrate approaches via analysis of standardized mortality ratio data from the United States Renal Data System. Results show that SEL

  3. 78 FR 8535 - Medicare Program: Comprehensive End-Stage Renal Disease Care Model Announcement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    ... Disease Care Model Announcement AGENCY: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), HHS. ACTION... the testing of the Comprehensive End- Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Care Model, a new initiative from the... (CHIP) beneficiaries. We are interested in identifying models designed to improve care for...

  4. A Multi-Stage Optimization Model With Minimum Energy Consumption-Wireless Mesh Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Krishnakumar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Optimization models related with routing, bandwidth utilization and power consumption are developed in the wireless mesh computing environment using the operations research techniques such as maximal flow model, transshipment model and minimax optimizing algorithm. The Path creation algorithm is used to find the multiple paths from source to destination.A multi-stage optimization model is developed by combining the multi-path optimization model, optimization model in capacity utilization and energy optimization model and minimax optimizing algorithm. The input to the multi-stage optimization model is a network with many source and destination. The optimal solution obtained from this model is a minimum energy consuming path from source to destination along with the maximum data rate over each link. The performance is evaluated by comparing the data rate values of superimposed algorithm and minimax optimizing algorithm. The main advantage of this model is the reduction of traffic congestion in the network.

  5. A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

  6. Scrum integration in stage-gate models for collaborative product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Anita Friis; Slavensky, Andreas; Nguyen, Vivi Thuy

    2013-01-01

    The relevance of collaborative Product Development (PD) is rising with the decrease of product life cycles combined with growing customer demands. Industrial manufacturers now experience competition in the global market, where differentiation is necessary for survival. Hence, in order...... models. Thus, instead of replacing traditional stage-gate models agile methods are currently integrated in existing PD models generating hybrid solution for collaborative PD. This paper includes a study of three industrial cases that have successfully integrated Scrum into a stage-gate process model...

  7. Stability patterns for a size-structured population model and its stage-structured counterpart

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Pedersen, Michael; Lin, Zhigui

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we compare a general size-structured population model, where a size-structured consumer feeds upon an unstructured resource, to its simplified stage-structured counterpart in terms of equilibrium stability. Stability of the size-structured model is understood in terms of an equivalent...... delayed system consisting of a renewal equation for the consumer population birth rate and a delayed differential equation for the resource. Results show that the size- and stage-structured models differ considerably with respect to equilibrium stability, although the two models have completely identical...

  8. A quantification model for apoptosis in mouse embryos in the early stage of fetation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PengFei; FU JianHua; MA WanYun; CHEN DieYan; Lü DanYu; BAI WenJia

    2009-01-01

    Apoptosis is the most important inducement and modulator for embryos in the early stage of fetation, i.e. after the 8-cell stage, mostly the morula and blastula stage, to proceed to the stage of nonlinear development. Using a two-photon laser scanning microscopy (TPLSM) system, we obtained 3-dimensional (3D) fluorescent images of preimplantation mouse embryos. A model for quantification was established. The statistical results for the spatial location of apoptosis bodies in embryos was obtained following image processing, as well as investigation of the kinetics of apoptosis. It was found that most (70%) apoptosis occurred in the trophectoderm, and the departure between the centroid and geometric center of embryos had a step transition when embryos developed into the 32-cell stage,which was consistent with the theoretical prediction that the blastocele would induce a symmetry break of the distribution of cells in embryos.

  9. A quantification model for apoptosis in mouse embryos in the early stage of fetation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Apoptosis is the most important inducement and modulator for embryos in the early stage of fetation, i.e. after the 8-cell stage, mostly the morula and blastula stage, to proceed to the stage of nonlinear development. Using a two-photon laser scanning microscopy (TPLSM) system, we obtained 3-dimensional (3D) fluorescent images of preimplantation mouse embryos. A model for quantification was established. The statistical results for the spatial location of apoptosis bodies in embryos was obtained following image processing, as well as investigation of the kinetics of apoptosis. It was found that most (70%) apoptosis occurred in the trophectoderm, and the departure between the centroid and geometric center of embryos had a step transition when embryos developed into the 32-cell stage, which was consistent with the theoretical prediction that the blastocele would induce a symmetry break of the distribution of cells in embryos.

  10. Stages of Change Model for Participation in Physical Activity during Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lene Annette Hagen Haakstad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The transtheoretical model (TTM has been successful in promoting health behavioral change in the general population. However, there is a scant knowledge about physical activity in relation to the TTM during pregnancy. Hence, the aims of the present study were (1 to assess readiness to become or stay physically active according to the TTM and (2 to compare background and health variables across the TTM. Methods. Healthy pregnant women (n=467 were allocated to the study from Oslo University Hospital, Norway. The participants filled in a validated self-administered questionnaire, physical activity pregnancy questionnaire (PAPQ in gestation, weeks 32–36. The questionnaire contained 53 questions with one particular question addressing the TTM and the five stages: (1 precontemplation stage, (2 contemplation stage, (3 preparation stage, (4 action stage, and (5 maintenance stage. Results. More than half of the participants (53% were involved in regular exercise (stages 4-5; however, only six specified that they had recently started an exercise program (stage 4. About 33% reported engaging in some physical activity, but not regularly (stage 3. The results showed that receiving advice from health professionals to exercise during pregnancy increased the likeliness of being in stages 4-5, while higher age, multiparity, pregravid overweight, unhealthy eating habits, pelvic girdle pain, and urinary incontinence were more prevalent with low readiness to change exercise habits (stages 1–3. Conclusion. According to the TTM, more than half of the participants reported to be physically active. Moreover, most of the participants classified as inactive showed a high motivational readiness or intention to increase their physical activity level. Hence, pregnancy may be a window of opportunity for the establishment of long-term physical activity habits.

  11. An Enhanced Preventive Maintenance Optimization Model Based on a Three-Stage Failure Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruifeng Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants are highly complex systems and the issues related to their safety are of primary importance. Probabilistic safety assessment is regarded as the most widespread methodology for studying the safety of nuclear power plants. As maintenance is one of the most important factors for affecting the reliability and safety, an enhanced preventive maintenance optimization model based on a three-stage failure process is proposed. Preventive maintenance is still a dominant maintenance policy due to its easy implementation. In order to correspond to the three-color scheme commonly used in practice, the lifetime of system before failure is divided into three stages, namely, normal, minor defective, and severe defective stages. When the minor defective stage is identified, two measures are considered for comparison: one is that halving the inspection interval only when the minor defective stage is identified at the first time; the other one is that if only identifying the minor defective stage, the subsequent inspection interval is halved. Maintenance is implemented immediately once the severe defective stage is identified. Minimizing the expected cost per unit time is our objective function to optimize the inspection interval. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed models.

  12. Applying a stage model of behavior change to colon cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Mary E; Luckmann, Roger; Stoddard, Anne M; Avrunin, Jill S; White, Mary Jo; Stark, Jennifer R; Clemow, Lynn; Rosal, Milagros C

    2005-01-01

    There has been limited use of stages of change models in characterizing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We assess the applicability of the Precaution Adoption Model (PAPM) by determining the distribution of stages of adoption and by elucidating differences among stages. The study is based on 1394 responses (69%) to a survey mailed in 2002 to patients in a primary care population. Survey measures included: self-reported CRC screening, sociodemographic characteristics, health system characteristics, attitudes and beliefs about CRC screening, perceived vulnerability to CRC, and worry about CRC. The main outcome was PAPM stage of adoption of CRC screening based on the ACS preferred guidelines: colonoscopy every 10 years alone or the combination annual FOBT plus sigmoidoscopy every 5 years. 57% were up-to-date with at least one test; 36% were up-to-date with the ACS preferred guidelines; provider recommendation, positive family history of CRC, and positive decisional balance score were significantly associated with higher compared to lower PAPM stages. The combination of PAPM stage assignment and other factors provides useful information for designing tailored interventions. There are special challenges in developing and interpreting PAPM stage assignments when a guideline offers multiple pathways to adherence and recommends a combination of two tests as a preferred option.

  13. Modelling of two-stage anaerobic digestion using the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumensaat, F; Keller, J

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB/Simulink is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale.

  14. Mechanical and mathematical models of multi-stage horizontal fracturing strings and their application

    OpenAIRE

    Zhanghua Lian; Ying Zhang; Xu Zhao; Shidong Ding; Tiejun Lin

    2015-01-01

    Multi-stage SRV fracturing in horizontal wells is a new technology developed at home and abroad in recent years to effectively develop shale gas or low-permeability reservoirs, but on the other hand makes the mechanical environment of fracturing strings more complicated at the same time. In view of this, based on the loading features of tubing strings during the multi-stage fracturing of a horizontal well, mechanical models were established for three working cases of multiple packer setting, ...

  15. Simulink Model of the Ares I Upper Stage Main Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchett, Bradley T.

    2008-01-01

    A numerical model of the Ares I upper stage main propulsion system is formulated based on first principles. Equation's are written as non-linear ordinary differential equations. The GASP fortran code is used to compute thermophysical properties of the working fluids. Complicated algebraic constraints are numerically solved. The model is implemented in Simulink and provides a rudimentary simulation of the time history of important pressures and temperatures during re-pressurization, boost and upper stage firing. The model is validated against an existing reliable code, and typical results are shown.

  16. Modified landfill gas generation rate model of first-order kinetics and two-stage reaction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiajun CHEN; Hao WANG; Na ZHANG

    2009-01-01

    This investigation was carried out to establish a new domestic landfill gas (LFG) generation rate model that takes into account the impact ofleachate recirculation. The first-order kinetics and two-stage reaction (FKTSR) model of the LFG generation rate includes mechanisms of the nutrient balance for biochemical reaction in two main stages. In this study, the FKTSR model was modified by the introduction of the outflow function and the organic acid conversion coefficient in order to represent the in-situ condition of nutrient loss through leachate. Laboratory experiments were carried out to simulate the impact of leachate recirculation and verify the modified FKTSR model. The model calibration was then calculated by using the experimental data. The results suggested that the new model was in line with the experimental data. The main parameters of the modified FKTSR model, including the LFG production potential (L0), the reaction rate constant in the first stage (K1), and the reaction rate constant in the second stage (K2) of 64.746 L, 0.202 d-1, and 0.338 d-1,respectively, were comparable to the old ones of 42.069 L,0.231 d-1, and 0.231 d-1. The new model is better able to explain the mechanisms involved in LFG generation.

  17. Two-stage estimation in copula models used in family studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elisabeth Anne Wreford

    2005-01-01

    In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for studying a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are derived, generalising the approach by...

  18. Why Are There Developmental Stages in Language Learning? A Developmental Robotics Model of Language Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Anthony F; Cangelosi, Angelo

    2017-02-01

    Most theories of learning would predict a gradual acquisition and refinement of skills as learning progresses, and while some highlight exponential growth, this fails to explain why natural cognitive development typically progresses in stages. Models that do span multiple developmental stages typically have parameters to "switch" between stages. We argue that by taking an embodied view, the interaction between learning mechanisms, the resulting behavior of the agent, and the opportunities for learning that the environment provides can account for the stage-wise development of cognitive abilities. We summarize work relevant to this hypothesis and suggest two simple mechanisms that account for some developmental transitions: neural readiness focuses on changes in the neural substrate resulting from ongoing learning, and perceptual readiness focuses on the perceptual requirements for learning new tasks. Previous work has demonstrated these mechanisms in replications of a wide variety of infant language experiments, spanning multiple developmental stages. Here we piece this work together as a single model of ongoing learning with no parameter changes at all. The model, an instance of the Epigenetic Robotics Architecture (Morse et al 2010) embodied on the iCub humanoid robot, exhibits ongoing multi-stage development while learning pre-linguistic and then basic language skills. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siemers Eric R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alzheimer's Disease (AD affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. Methods A time-to-event (TTE simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. Results The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90. Conclusions This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

  20. Prey-Predator Model with Two-Stage Infection in Prey: Concerning Pest Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapan Kumar Nandi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A prey-predator model system is developed; specifically the disease is considered into the prey population. Here the prey population is taken as pest and the predators consume the selected pest. Moreover, we assume that the prey species is infected with a viral disease forming into susceptible and two-stage infected classes, and the early stage of infected prey is more vulnerable to predation by the predator. Also, it is assumed that the later stage of infected pests is not eaten by the predator. Different equilibria of the system are investigated and their stability analysis and Hopf bifurcation of the system around the interior equilibriums are discussed. A modified model has been constructed by considering some alternative source of food for the predator population and the dynamical behavior of the modified model has been investigated. We have demonstrated the analytical results by numerical analysis by taking some simulated set of parameter values.

  1. Finite difference modeling of sinking stage curved beam based on revised Vlasov equations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张磊; 朱真才; 沈刚; 曹国华

    2015-01-01

    For the static analysis of the sinking stage curved beam, a finite difference model was presented based on the proposed revised Vlasov equations. First, revised Vlasov equations for thin-walled curved beams with closed sections were deduced considering the shear strain on the mid-surface of the cross-section. Then, the finite difference formulation of revised Vlasov equations was implemented with the parabolic interpolation based on Taylor series. At last, the finite difference model was built by substituting geometry and boundary conditions of the sinking stage curved beam into the finite difference formulation. The validity of present work is confirmed by the published literature and ANSYS simulation results. It can be concluded that revised Vlasov equations are more accurate than the original one in the analysis of thin-walled beams with closed sections, and that present finite difference model is applicable in the evaluation of the sinking stage curved beam.

  2. The CSS and The Two-Staged Methods for Parameter Estimation in SARFIMA Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Egrioglu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (SARFIMA models are used in the analysis of seasonal long memory-dependent time series. Two methods, which are conditional sum of squares (CSS and two-staged methods introduced by Hosking (1984, are proposed to estimate the parameters of SARFIMA models. However, no simulation study has been conducted in the literature. Therefore, it is not known how these methods behave under different parameter settings and sample sizes in SARFIMA models. The aim of this study is to show the behavior of these methods by a simulation study. According to results of the simulation, advantages and disadvantages of both methods under different parameter settings and sample sizes are discussed by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE obtained by the CSS and two-staged methods. As a result of the comparison, it is seen that CSS method produces better results than those obtained from the two-staged method.

  3. TARGET ANALYSIS OF SUZHOU CREEK REHABILITATION PROJECT STAGE II:BASED ON WATER QUALITY MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAO Zhen-liang; XU Zu-xin

    2004-01-01

    The Suzhou Creek is a seriously polluted tidal river in Shanghai. The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project was launched in 1998, and the total investment will surpass 10 billion yuan RMB. It is important to assess the effectiveness of the project and ascertain its targets. In this study, by analyzing the achievements of Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (Stage I) and its remaining problems, the main tasks of the Project Stage II are proposed. These works are wastewater interception, sediment dredging, bidirectional water diversion, and reconstruction of municipal pump stations. The water quality model established with USEPA's WASP is employed to analyze the quantitative targets of the Project Stage II. In the Project Stage II, the water quality of mainstream and tributaries will be improved continuously, the valus of CODCr, BOD5, DO in the mainstream will steadily attain Class IV according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard, and the ecological environment of Suzhou Creek with continuously recover.

  4. A three-stage stochastic optimization model for the Brazilian biodiesel supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Senna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Brazilian program for biodiesel use highlights the production of biodiesel from castor seeds. Biodiesel is a non-polluting energy source that has the potential to promote prosperity by creating jobs in poor regions of Brazil. However, the infrastructure, logistics, and proper facilities are lacking. A variety of approaches to optimizing the biodiesel supply chain have been proposed. The goal is to minimize the grain storage and transportation costs. This paper presents a comparison between a two-stage model and a multistage (three-stage stochastic model to optimize the biodiesel supply chain. The comparison between these formulations shows that the flexibility gain provided by the multistage model results in a lower total logistic cost. The optimum for the three-stage model was 7,700,019 (BRL, compared to 8,628,002 (BRL for the two-stage model, representing a savings of 927,983 (BRL. We highlight that this model offers a real solution for castor supply chain design (considering uncertainty in the Brazilian semiarid region, which is a poorer region of the country, thus making cost reduction mandatory.

  5. Autobiography and Anorexia: A Qualitative Alternative to Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model

    OpenAIRE

    Félix Díaz; Natalia Solano Pinto; Irene Solbes

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we propose a qualitative approach to the study of the ways in which people face good and poor health issues. During the last 30 years, Prochaska and DiClemente's "trans-theoretical model" (1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1992) has gained relevance as a model to assess disposition for change in patients. We revise the features of the model and its common techniques to assess stages of change, underlining its methodological and conceptual problems. Particularly, we discuss the paradoxe...

  6. Analysis and modeling of infrasound from a four-stage rocket launch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Philip; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen

    2016-06-01

    Infrasound from a four-stage sounding rocket was recorded by several arrays within 100 km of the launch pad. Propagation modeling methods have been applied to the known trajectory to predict infrasonic signals at the ground in order to identify what information might be obtained from such observations. There is good agreement between modeled and observed back azimuths, and predicted arrival times for motor ignition signals match those observed. The signal due to the high-altitude stage ignition is found to be low amplitude, despite predictions of weak attenuation. This lack of signal is possibly due to inefficient aeroacoustic coupling in the rarefied upper atmosphere.

  7. Towards a Humanized Mouse Model of Liver Stage Malaria Using Ectopic Artificial Livers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Shengyong; March, Sandra; Galstian, Ani; Gural, Nil; Stevens, Kelly R.; Mota, Maria M.; Bhatia, Sangeeta N.

    2017-01-01

    The malaria liver stage is an attractive target for antimalarial development, and preclinical malaria models are essential for testing such candidates. Given ethical concerns and costs associated with non‐human primate models, humanized mouse models containing chimeric human livers offer a valuable alternative as small animal models of liver stage human malaria. The best available human liver chimeric mice rely on cellular transplantation into mice with genetically engineered liver injury, but these systems involve a long and variable humanization process, are expensive, and require the use of breeding-challenged mouse strains which are not widely accessible. We previously incorporated primary human hepatocytes into engineered polyethylene glycol (PEG)-based nanoporous human ectopic artificial livers (HEALs), implanted them in mice without liver injury, and rapidly generated human liver chimeric mice in a reproducible and scalable fashion. By re-designing the PEG scaffold to be macroporous, we demonstrate the facile fabrication of implantable porous HEALs that support liver stage human malaria (P. falciparum) infection in vitro, and also after implantation in mice with normal liver function, 60% of the time. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates the feasibility of applying a tissue engineering strategy towards the development of scalable preclinical models of liver stage malaria infection for future applications. PMID:28361899

  8. A two-stage cascade model of BOLD responses in human visual cortex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kendrick N Kay

    Full Text Available Visual neuroscientists have discovered fundamental properties of neural representation through careful analysis of responses to controlled stimuli. Typically, different properties are studied and modeled separately. To integrate our knowledge, it is necessary to build general models that begin with an input image and predict responses to a wide range of stimuli. In this study, we develop a model that accepts an arbitrary band-pass grayscale image as input and predicts blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD responses in early visual cortex as output. The model has a cascade architecture, consisting of two stages of linear and nonlinear operations. The first stage involves well-established computations-local oriented filters and divisive normalization-whereas the second stage involves novel computations-compressive spatial summation (a form of normalization and a variance-like nonlinearity that generates selectivity for second-order contrast. The parameters of the model, which are estimated from BOLD data, vary systematically across visual field maps: compared to primary visual cortex, extrastriate maps generally have larger receptive field size, stronger levels of normalization, and increased selectivity for second-order contrast. Our results provide insight into how stimuli are encoded and transformed in successive stages of visual processing.

  9. A two-stage broadcast message propagation model in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dan; Cheng, Shun-Jun

    2016-11-01

    Message propagation in social networks is becoming a popular topic in complex networks. One of the message types in social networks is called broadcast message. It refers to a type of message which has a unique and unknown destination for the publisher, such as 'lost and found'. Its propagation always has two stages. Due to this feature, rumor propagation model and epidemic propagation model have difficulty in describing this message's propagation accurately. In this paper, an improved two-stage susceptible-infected-removed model is proposed. We come up with the concept of the first forwarding probability and the second forwarding probability. Another part of our work is figuring out the influence to the successful message transmission chance in each level resulting from multiple reasons, including the topology of the network, the receiving probability, the first stage forwarding probability, the second stage forwarding probability as well as the length of the shortest path between the publisher and the relevant destination. The proposed model has been simulated on real networks and the results proved the model's effectiveness.

  10. Dynamics Analysis of an HIV Infection Model including Infected Cells in an Eclipse Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengyu Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an HIV infection model including an eclipse stage of infected cells is considered. Some quicker cells in this stage become productively infected cells, a portion of these cells are reverted to the uninfected class, and others will be latent down in the body. We consider CTL-response delay in this model and analyze the effect of time delay on stability of equilibrium. It is shown that the uninfected equilibrium and CTL-absent infection equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable for both ODE and DDE model. And we get the global stability of the CTL-present equilibrium for ODE model. For DDE model, we have proved that the CTL-present equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable in a range of delays and also have studied the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the CTL-present equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to support our main results.

  11. Stages of decompensation in combat-related posttraumatic stress disorder: a new conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S; Wilson, J P; Mason, J W

    1996-01-01

    This conceptual article presents a model of severe, chronic combat-related PTSD based on several years of longitudinal clinical observations of Vietnam veterans. The model describes a repeating cycle of decompensation that profoundly disrupts the veteran's life. There appear to be "stages" of decompensation that can be described clinically and may be distinct physiologically. The stages describe a wide range of functioning, from adaptive to totally dysfunctional PTSD core symptoms, as well as several other dimensions of clinical functioning, such as affect regulation, defenses, ego states, interactions with the environment, capacity for self-destruction/suicide and capacity for attachment and insight are described for each stage. Clinical and research implications are discussed.

  12. A Novel Kinetic Model of Liquid Nitrogen's Explosive Boiling at the Initial Stage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUAI Xiu-Lan; DONG Zhao-Yi; LI Zhi-Gang; YIN Tie-Nan; ZOU Yu

    2007-01-01

    The liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling characteristics under transient high heat flux have attracted increasing attentions of researchers over the world due to its wide applications. Although some experiments have been performed, the process and the characteristics at the initial stage, especially within 1μs, have not been described reasonably yet. Based on the related experiments and theoretical analysis, a novel kinetic model combined with quasi-fluid idea is presented to analyse the characteristics of liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling at the initial stage. The results indicate that the model can appropriately describe the liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling. The behaviour and the heat transfer characteristics of a single bubble are very different from those of the bubble cluster, thus the behaviour of individual bubbles could not be directly applied to describe the explosive boiling process at the initial stage.

  13. Rock types and ductile structures on a rock domain basis, and fracture orientation and mineralogy on a deformation zone basis. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Michael [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden); Forssberg, Ola [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-09-15

    This report presents the results of the analysis of base geological data in order to establish the dominant rock type, the subordinate rock types and the orientation of ductile mineral fabrics within each rock domain included in the regional geological model, version 1.2. An assessment of the degree of homogeneity of each domain is also provided. The analytical work has utilised the presentation of data in the form of histograms and stereographic projections. Fisher means and K values or best-fit great circles and corresponding pole values have been calculated for the ductile structural data. These values have been used in the geometric modelling of rock domains in the regional model, version 1.2. Furthermore, all analytical results have been used in the assignment of properties to rock domains in this model. A second analytical component reported here addresses the orientation and mineralogy of fractures in the deterministic deformation zones that are included in the regional geological model, version 1.2. The analytical work has once again utilised the presentation of data in the form of histograms and stereographic projections. Fisher means and K values are presented for the orientation of fracture sets in the deterministic deformation zones that have been identified with the help of new borehole data. The frequencies of occurrence of different minerals along the fractures in these deformation zones as well as the orientation of fractures in the zones, along which different minerals occur, are also presented. The results of the analyses have been used in the establishment of a conceptual structural model for the Forsmark site and in the assignment of properties to deterministic deformation zones in model version 1.2.

  14. Dynamic models of staged gasification processes. Documentation of gasification simulator; Dynamiske modeller a f trinopdelte forgasningsprocesser. Dokumentation til forgasser simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-02-15

    In connection with the ERP project 'Dynamic modelling of staged gasification processes' a gasification simulator has been constructed. The simulator consists of: a mathematical model of the gasification process developed at Technical University of Denmark, a user interface programme, IGSS, and a communication interface between the two programmes. (BA)

  15. What makes us think? A three-stage dual-process model of analytic engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennycook, Gordon; Fugelsang, Jonathan A; Koehler, Derek J

    2015-08-01

    The distinction between intuitive and analytic thinking is common in psychology. However, while often being quite clear on the characteristics of the two processes ('Type 1' processes are fast, autonomous, intuitive, etc. and 'Type 2' processes are slow, deliberative, analytic, etc.), dual-process theorists have been heavily criticized for being unclear on the factors that determine when an individual will think analytically or rely on their intuition. We address this issue by introducing a three-stage model that elucidates the bottom-up factors that cause individuals to engage Type 2 processing. According to the model, multiple Type 1 processes may be cued by a stimulus (Stage 1), leading to the potential for conflict detection (Stage 2). If successful, conflict detection leads to Type 2 processing (Stage 3), which may take the form of rationalization (i.e., the Type 1 output is verified post hoc) or decoupling (i.e., the Type 1 output is falsified). We tested key aspects of the model using a novel base-rate task where stereotypes and base-rate probabilities cued the same (non-conflict problems) or different (conflict problems) responses about group membership. Our results support two key predictions derived from the model: (1) conflict detection and decoupling are dissociable sources of Type 2 processing and (2) conflict detection sometimes fails. We argue that considering the potential stages of reasoning allows us to distinguish early (conflict detection) and late (decoupling) sources of analytic thought. Errors may occur at both stages and, as a consequence, bias arises from both conflict monitoring and decoupling failures.

  16. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  17. Prediction of Pathological Stage in Patients with Prostate Cancer: A Neuro-Fuzzy Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Cosma

    Full Text Available The prediction of cancer staging in prostate cancer is a process for estimating the likelihood that the cancer has spread before treatment is given to the patient. Although important for determining the most suitable treatment and optimal management strategy for patients, staging continues to present significant challenges to clinicians. Clinical test results such as the pre-treatment Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA level, the biopsy most common tumor pattern (Primary Gleason pattern and the second most common tumor pattern (Secondary Gleason pattern in tissue biopsies, and the clinical T stage can be used by clinicians to predict the pathological stage of cancer. However, not every patient will return abnormal results in all tests. This significantly influences the capacity to effectively predict the stage of prostate cancer. Herein we have developed a neuro-fuzzy computational intelligence model for classifying and predicting the likelihood of a patient having Organ-Confined Disease (OCD or Extra-Prostatic Disease (ED using a prostate cancer patient dataset obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA Research Network. The system input consisted of the following variables: Primary and Secondary Gleason biopsy patterns, PSA levels, age at diagnosis, and clinical T stage. The performance of the neuro-fuzzy system was compared to other computational intelligence based approaches, namely the Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy C-Means, Support Vector Machine, the Naive Bayes classifiers, and also the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram which is commonly used by clinicians. A comparison of the optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC points that were identified using these approaches, revealed that the neuro-fuzzy system, at its optimal point, returns the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC, with a low number of false positives (FPR = 0.274, TPR = 0.789, AUC = 0.812. The proposed approach is also an improvement over the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram (FPR

  18. Approximate queueing models for capacitated multi-stage inventory systems under base-stock control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avsar, Zeynep Müge; Zijm, Willem H.M.

    2014-01-01

    A queueing analysis is presented for base-stock controlled multi-stage production-inventory systems with capacity constraints. The exact queueing model is approximated by replacing some state-dependent conditional probabilities (that are used to express the transition rates) by constants. Two

  19. Realizing joined-up government: Dynamic capabilities and stage models for transformation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klievink, B.; Janssen, M.

    2009-01-01

    Joining up remains a high priority on the e-government agenda and requires extensive transformation. Stage models are predictable patterns which exist in the growth of organizations and unfold as discrete time periods that result in discontinuity and can help e-government development towards joined-

  20. Using Five Stage Model to Design of Collaborative Learning Environments in Second Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orhan, Sevil; Karaman, M. Kemal

    2014-01-01

    Specifically Second Life (SL) among virtual worlds draws attention of researchers to form collaborative learning environments (Sutcliffe & Alrayes, 2012) since it could be used as a rich platform to simulate a real environment containing many collaborative learning characteristics and interaction tools within itself. Five Stage Model (FSM)…

  1. Periodic Solutions of a Delayed Predator-Prey Model with Stage Structure for Prey

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rui Xu; Lan-sun Chen; Fei-long Hao

    2004-01-01

    A periodic predator-prey model with stage structure for prey and time delays due to negative feedbackand gestation of predator is proposed. By using Gaines and Mawhin's continuation theorem of coincidencedegree theory, su.cient conditions are derived for the existence of positive periodic solutions to the proposedmodel. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the feasibility of our main result.

  2. PERIODIC SOLUTION AND ALMOST PERIODIC SOLUTION OF NONAUTONOMOUS COMPETITIVE MODEL WITH STAGE STRUCTURE AND HARVESTING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YaoZhijian

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a two-species nonautonomous competitive model with stage structure and harvesting is considered. Sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, global attractivity of positive periodic solution and the existence, uniform asvmntotic stability of almost neriodic solution are obtained.

  3. Wallas' Four-Stage Model of the Creative Process: More than Meets the Eye?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler-Smith, Eugene

    2015-01-01

    Based on a detailed reading of Graham Wallas' "Art of Thought" (1926) it is argued that his four-stage model of the creative process (Preparation, Incubation, Illumination, Verification), in spite of holding sway as a conceptual anchor for many creativity researchers, does not reflect accurately Wallas' full account of the creative…

  4. ADM1-based modeling of methane production from acidified sweet sorghum extractin a two stage process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonopoulou, Georgia; Gavala, Hariklia N.; Skiadas, Ioannis

    2012-01-01

    The present study focused on the application of the Anaerobic Digestion Model 1 οn the methane production from acidified sorghum extract generated from a hydrogen producing bioreactor in a two-stage anaerobic process. The kinetic parameters for hydrogen and volatile fatty acids consumption were...

  5. Bayesian Analysis for Linearized Multi-Stage Models in Quantal Bioassay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Lynn; Cohen, Michael P.

    Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

  6. Violent Victimization and Perpetration during Adolescence: Developmental Stage Dependent Ecological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Needham, Belinda L.; Grunden, Leslie N.; Farb, Amy Feldman

    2010-01-01

    Using a variant of the ecological-transactional model and developmental theories of delinquency on a nationally representative sample of adolescents, the current study explored the ecological predictors of violent victimization, perpetration, and both for three different developmental stages during adolescence. We examined the relative influence…

  7. Thermal modelling approaches to enable mitigation measures implementation for salmonid gravel stages in hydropeaking rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Mulet, R.; Alfredsen, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    The dewatering of salmon spawning redds can lead to early life stages mortality due to hydropeaking operations, with higher impact on the alevins stages as they have lower tolerance to dewatering than the eggs. Targeted flow-related mitigations measures can reduce such mortality, but it is essential to understand how hydropeaking change thermal regimes in rivers and may impact embryo development; only then optimal measures can be implemented at the right development stage. We present a set of experimental approaches and modelling tools for the estimation of hatch and swim-up dates based on water temperature data in the river Lundesokna (Norway). We identified critical periods for gravel-stages survival and through comparing hydropeaking vs unregulated thermal and hydrological regimes, we established potential flow-release measures to minimise mortality. Modelling outcomes were then used assess the cost-efficiency of each measure. The combinations of modelling tools used in this study were overall satisfactory and their application can be useful especially in systems where little field data is available. Targeted measures built on well-informed modelling approaches can be pre-tested based on their efficiency to mitigate dewatering effects vs. the hydropower system capacity to release or conserve water for power production. Overall, environmental flow releases targeting specific ecological objectives can provide better cost-effective options than conventional operational rules complying with general legislation.

  8. Analysing outsourcing policies in an asset management context: a six-stage model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoenmaker, R.; Verlaan, J.G.

    2013-01-01

    Asset managers of civil infrastructure are increasingly outsourcing their maintenance. Whereas maintenance is a cyclic process, decisions to outsource decisions are often project-based, and confusing the discussion on the degree of outsourcing. This paper presents a six-stage model that facilitates

  9. Analysing outsourcing policies in an asset management context: a six-stage model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoenmaker, R.; Verlaan, J.G.

    2013-01-01

    Asset managers of civil infrastructure are increasingly outsourcing their maintenance. Whereas maintenance is a cyclic process, decisions to outsource decisions are often project-based, and confusing the discussion on the degree of outsourcing. This paper presents a six-stage model that facilitates

  10. Integrative health care model for climacteric stage women: design of the intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pérez-Cuevas Ricardo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climacteric stage women experience significant biological, psychological and social changes. With demographic changes being observed in the growing number of climacteric stage women in Mexico, it is important to improve their knowledge about the climacteric stage and its potential associated problems, encourage their participation in screening programs, and promote the acquisition of healthy lifestyles. At Mexican health care institutions the predominant health care model for climacteric stage women has a biomedical perspective. Medical doctors provide mostly curative services and have limited support from other health professionals. This study aims to design an integrative health care model (IHCM: bio-psycho-social, multidisciplinary and women-centered applicable in primary care services aimed at climacteric stage women. Methods/Design We present the design, inclusion criteria and detailed description of an IHCM. The IHCM consists of collaborative and coordinated provision of services by a health team, which is involves a family doctor, nurse, psychologist, and the woman herself. The health team promotes the empowerment of women through individual and group counseling on the climacteric stage and health related self-care. The intervention lasts three months followed by a three-month follow-up period to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. The effectiveness of the model will be evaluated through the following aspects: health-related quality of life (HR-QoL, empowerment, self-efficacy and knowledge regarding the climacteric stage and health-related self-care activities, use of screening services, and improvement in lifestyles (regular leisure time physical activity and healthy diet. Discussion Participation in preventive activities should be encouraged among women in Mexico. Designing and evaluating the effectiveness of an integrative health care model for women at the climacteric stage, based on the empowerment approach

  11. Experimental and modeling study of a two-stage pilot scale high solid anaerobic digester system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Liang; Zhao, Quanbao; Ma, Jingwei; Frear, Craig; Chen, Shulin

    2012-11-01

    This study established a comprehensive model to configure a new two-stage high solid anaerobic digester (HSAD) system designed for highly degradable organic fraction of municipal solid wastes (OFMSW). The HSAD reactor as the first stage was naturally separated into two zones due to biogas floatation and low specific gravity of solid waste. The solid waste was retained in the upper zone while only the liquid leachate resided in the lower zone of the HSAD reactor. Continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) and advective-diffusive reactor (ADR) models were constructed in series to describe the whole system. Anaerobic digestion model No. 1 (ADM1) was used as reaction kinetics and incorporated into each reactor module. Compared with the experimental data, the simulation results indicated that the model was able to well predict the pH, volatile fatty acid (VFA) and biogas production.

  12. Travelling wave and convergence in stage-structured reaction-diffusion competitive models with nonlocal delays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Rui [Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: rxu88@yahoo.com.cn; Chaplain, M.A.J. [Department of Mathematics, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom); Davidson, F.A. [Department of Mathematics, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom)

    2006-11-15

    In this paper, we first investigate a stage-structured competitive model with time delays, harvesting, and nonlocal spatial effect. By using an iterative technique recently developed by Wu and Zou (Wu J, Zou X. Travelling wave fronts of reaction-diffusion systems with delay. J Dynam Differen Equat 2001;13:651-87), sufficient conditions are established for the existence of travelling front solution connecting the two boundary equilibria in the case when there is no positive equilibrium. The travelling wave front corresponds to an invasion by a stronger species which drives the weaker species to extinction. Secondly, we consider a stage-structured competitive model with time delays and nonlocal spatial effect when the domain is finite. We prove the global stability of each of the nonnegative equilibria and demonstrate that the more complex model studied here admits three possible long term behaviors: coexistence, bistability and dominance as is the case for the standard Lotka-Voltera competitive model.

  13. Three Stage Maturity Model in SME’s towards Industry 4.0

    OpenAIRE

    Ganzarain, Jaione; Errasti, Nekane

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To address the challenges regarding the concept of Industry 4.0 and the diversification methodology and based on the strategic guidance towards Industry 4.0, we propose a process model as a guiding framework for Industry 4.0 collaborative diversification vision, strategy and action building. In this paper we suggest a stage process model to guide and train companies to identify new opportunities for diversification within Industry 4.0. Systematically carrying out the s...

  14. Three Stage Maturity Model in SME’s towards Industry 4.0

    OpenAIRE

    Jaione Ganzarain; Nekane Errasti

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To address the challenges regarding the concept of Industry 4.0 and the diversification methodology and based on the strategic guidance towards Industry 4.0, we propose a process model as a guiding framework for Industry 4.0 collaborative diversification vision, strategy and action building. In this paper we suggest a stage process model to guide and train companies to identify new opportunities for diversification within Industry 4.0. Systematically carrying out the s...

  15. Bifurcation analysis on a delayed SIS epidemic model with stage structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kejun Zhuang

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a delayed SIS (Susceptible Infectious Susceptible model with stage structure is investigated. We study the Hopf bifurcations and stability of the model. Applying the normal form theory and the center manifold argument, we derive the explicit formulas determining the properties of the bifurcating periodic solutions. The conditions to guarantee the global existence of periodic solutions are established. Also some numerical simulations for supporting the theoretical are given.

  16. Analysis, Predictive Modeling and Hoisted Object Impact Control in Hydro-cylinder Stage- Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Kobyzev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers a problem of dynamic impact of hoisting mechanisms, which are based on the multistage hydro-cylinders, on the hoisted object. Hydro-cylinders have high specific characteristics, but there are also some drawbacks. One of them is an impact at the beginning and at the end of hoist and in switching the stages. And in case of switching the stages under certain conditions the impact in nature can be a high impact impulse. The paper explores the impacts at the beginning of hoist and when switching the stages.Numerical modeling is assumed to be a method of study. To build a mathematical model the following factors have been considered: geometrical cylinder parameters, hydraulic liquid compressibility, and friction between cylinder elements. Elasticity of ground, elasticity of rod, and elasticity of cylinder walls have been ignored.The modeling results allowed us to reveal a hydraulic nature of the stage-switching impact, introduce a formula to estimate the impact impulse value, show the friction effect on the impact impulse value and give a proposal to use a counter-pressure chamber to eliminate the stage-switching impact. An expression for the optimal counter-pressure is presented.The results obtained can find application in designing the new and upgrading the existing hoisting multistage hydro-cylinder mechanisms to increase a hoisting speed and simultaneously eliminate the impact on hoisted object.Compared to existing papers in the field concerned, this one concentrates on revealing a specific hydraulic nature of the stage-switching impact, without regard to dynamics and elasticity of the hoisting mechanism parts other than the cylinder itself.The achieved results find confirmation when compared to the numerical and field data published by other authors.

  17. Mechanical and mathematical models of multi-stage horizontal fracturing strings and their application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanghua Lian

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-stage SRV fracturing in horizontal wells is a new technology developed at home and abroad in recent years to effectively develop shale gas or low-permeability reservoirs, but on the other hand makes the mechanical environment of fracturing strings more complicated at the same time. In view of this, based on the loading features of tubing strings during the multi-stage fracturing of a horizontal well, mechanical models were established for three working cases of multiple packer setting, open differential-pressure sliding sleeve, and open ball-injection sliding sleeve under a hold-down packer. Moreover, mathematical models were respectively built for the above three cases. According to the Lame formula and Von Mises stress calculation formula for the thick-walled cylinder in the theory of elastic mechanics, a mathematical model was also established to calculate the equivalent stress for tubing string safety evaluation when the fracturing string was under the combined action of inner pressure, external squeezing force and axial stress, and another mathematical model was built for the mechanical strength and safety evaluation of multi-stage fracturing strings. In addition, a practical software was developed for the mechanical safety evaluation of horizontal well multi-stage fracturing strings according to the mathematical model developed for the mechanical calculation of the multi-packer string in horizontal wells. The research results were applied and verified in a gas well of Tahe Oilfield in the Tarim Basin with excellent effects, providing a theoretical basis and a simple and reliable technical means for optimal design and safety evaluation of safe operational parameters of multi-stage fracturing strings in horizontal wells.

  18. Women's steps of change and entry into drug abuse treatment. A multidimensional stages of change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, V B; Melchior, L A; Panter, A T; Slaughter, R; Huba, G J

    2000-04-01

    The Transtheoretical, or Stages of Change Model, has been applied to the investigation of help-seeking related to a number of addictive behaviors. Overall, the model has shown to be very important in understanding the process of help-seeking. However, substance abuse rarely exists in isolation from other health, mental health, and social problems. The present work extends the original Stages of Change Model by proposing "Steps of Change" as they relate to entry into substance abuse treatment programs for women. Readiness to make life changes in four domains-domestic violence, HIV sexual risk behavior, substance abuse, and mental health-is examined in relation to entry into four substance abuse treatment modalities (12-step, detoxification, outpatient, and residential). The Steps of Change Model hypothesizes that help-seeking behavior of substance-abusing women may reflect a hierarchy of readiness based on the immediacy, or time urgency, of their treatment issues. For example, women in battering relationships may be ready to make changes to reduce their exposure to violence before admitting readiness to seek substance abuse treatment. The Steps of Change Model was examined in a sample of 451 women contacted through a substance abuse treatment-readiness program in Los Angeles, California. A series of logistic regression analyses predict entry into four separate treatment modalities that vary. Results suggest a multidimensional Stages of Change Model that may extend to other populations and to other types of help-seeking behaviors.

  19. Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Thomas A; Picone, Gabriel; Sloan, Frank; Yashkin, Arseniy P

    2016-08-01

    We estimate a dynamic multi-stage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, while the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.

  20. Bifurcations of a singular prey-predator economic model with time delay and stage structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xue [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China)], E-mail: zhangxueer@gmail.com; Zhang Qingling [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China)], E-mail: qlzhang@mail.neu.edu.cn; Liu Chao [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Xiang Zhongyi [Department of Mathematics, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi, Hubei 445000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    This paper studies a singular prey-predator economic model with time delay and stage structure. Compared with other researches on dynamics of prey-predator population, this model is described by differential-algebraic equations due to economic factor. For zero economic profit, this model exhibits three bifurcational phenomena: transcritical bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and singular induced bifurcation. For positive economic profit, the model undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation at critical value of positive economic profit, and the increase of delay destabilizes the positive equilibrium point of the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results.

  1. Numerical modeling of the initial fluctuation condensation stage with charge drops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averina, T. A.; Zmievskaya, G. I.

    2016-11-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of the phase transition of the first kind at the initial stage of forming drops in a liquid or in melted state in a volume of steam with a fixed charge on drops. The model of the process is represented by superposition of random diffusion and jump stochastic processes. The algorithms for solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of the model of processes, which form the cluster size, allow one to calculate a distribution function of drops according to their size. The kinetic approach makes possible evaluate the role of the Rayleigh capillary instability at the initial condensation stage and to employ the analysis of electrodispersion mechanisms in the production of metal and semiconductor powders.

  2. Modeling TGF-β in early stages of cancer tissue dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Ascolani

    Full Text Available Recent works have highlighted a double role for the Transforming Growth Factor β (TGF-β: it inhibits cancer in healthy cells and potentiates tumor progression during late stage of tumorigenicity, respectively; therefore it has been termed the "Jekyll and Hyde" of cancer or, alternatively, an "excellent servant but a bad master". It remains unclear how this molecule could have the two opposite behaviours. In this work, we propose a TGF-β multi scale mathematical model at molecular, cellular and tissue scales. The multi scalar behaviours of the TGF-β are described by three coupled models built up together which can approximatively be related to distinct microscopic, mesoscopic, and macroscopic scales, respectively. We first model the dynamics of TGF-β at the single-cell level by taking into account the intracellular and extracellular balance and the autocrine and paracrine behaviour of TGF-β. Then we use the average estimates of the TGF-β from the first model to understand its dynamics in a model of duct breast tissue. Although the cellular model and the tissue model describe phenomena at different time scales, their cumulative dynamics explain the changes in the role of TGF-β in the progression from healthy to pre-tumoral to cancer. We estimate various parameters by using available gene expression datasets. Despite the fact that our model does not describe an explicit tissue geometry, it provides quantitative inference on the stage and progression of breast cancer tissue invasion that could be compared with epidemiological data in literature. Finally in the last model, we investigated the invasion of breast cancer cells in the bone niches and the subsequent disregulation of bone remodeling processes. The bone model provides an effective description of the bone dynamics in healthy and early stages cancer conditions and offers an evolutionary ecological perspective of the dynamics of the competition between cancer and healthy cells.

  3. Integrating life stages into ecological niche models: a case study on tiger beetles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Taboada

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a species' natural history and environmental needs across spatial scales is a primary requisite for effective conservation planning, particularly for species with complex life cycles in which different life stages occupy different niches and respond to the environment at different scales. However, niche models applied to conservation often neglect early life stages and are mostly performed at broad spatial scales. Using the endangered heath tiger beetle (Cicindela sylvatica as a model species, we relate presence/absence and abundance data of locally dispersing adults and sedentary larvae to abiotic and biotic variables measured in a multiscale approach within the geographic extent relevant to active conservation management. At the scale of hundreds of meters, fine-grained abiotic conditions (i.e., vegetation structure are fundamental determinants of the occurrence of both life stages, whereas the effect of biotic factors is mostly contained in the abiotic signature. The combination of dense heath vegetation and bare ground areas is thus the first requirement for the species' preservation, provided that accessibility to the suitable habitat is ensured. At a smaller scale (centimetres, the influence of abiotic factors on larval occurrence becomes negligible, suggesting the existence of important additional variables acting within larval proximity. Sustained significant correlations between neighbouring larvae in the models provide an indication of the potential impact of neighbourhood crowding on the larval niche within a few centimetres. Since the species spends the majority of its life cycle in the larval stage, it is essential to consider the hierarchical abiotic and biotic processes affecting the larvae when designing practical conservation guidelines for the species. This underlines the necessity for a more critical evaluation of the consequences of disregarding niche variation between life stages when estimating

  4. A multi-stage 3-D stress field modelling approach exemplified in the Bavarian Molasse Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Moritz O.; Heidbach, Oliver; Reinecker, John; Przybycin, Anna M.; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena

    2016-09-01

    The knowledge of the contemporary in situ stress state is a key issue for safe and sustainable subsurface engineering. However, information on the orientation and magnitudes of the stress state is limited and often not available for the areas of interest. Therefore 3-D geomechanical-numerical modelling is used to estimate the in situ stress state and the distance of faults from failure for application in subsurface engineering. The main challenge in this approach is to bridge the gap in scale between the widely scattered data used for calibration of the model and the high resolution in the target area required for the application. We present a multi-stage 3-D geomechanical-numerical approach which provides a state-of-the-art model of the stress field for a reservoir-scale area from widely scattered data records. Therefore, we first use a large-scale regional model which is calibrated by available stress data and provides the full 3-D stress tensor at discrete points in the entire model volume. The modelled stress state is used subsequently for the calibration of a smaller-scale model located within the large-scale model in an area without any observed stress data records. We exemplify this approach with two-stages for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. As an example of application, we estimate the scalar values for slip tendency and fracture potential from the model results as measures for the criticality of fault reactivation in the reservoir-scale model. The modelling results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing SHmax magnitude estimates needed for a more reliable model calibration. This leads to the conclusion that at this stage the model's reliability depends only on the amount and quality of available stress information rather than on the modelling technique itself or on local details of the model geometry. Any improvements in modelling and increases

  5. Global stability of a delayed mosquito-transmitted disease model with stage structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. G. Sampath Aruna Pradeep

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new eco-epidemiological deterministic delay differential equation model considering a biological controlling approach on mosquitoes, for endemic dengue disease with variable host (human and variable vector (Aedes aegypti populations, and stage structure for mosquitoes. In this model, predator-prey interaction is considered by using larvae as prey and mosquito-fish as predator. We give a complete classification of equilibria of the model, and sufficient conditions for global stability/global attractivity of some equilibria are given by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle. Also, numerical simulations are presented to show the validity of our results.

  6. Monte Carlo Error Analysis Applied to Core Formation: The Single-stage Model Revived

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, E.; Walter, M. J.

    2009-12-01

    The last decade has witnessed an explosion of studies that scrutinize whether or not the siderophile element budget of the modern mantle can plausibly be explained by metal-silicate equilibration in a deep magma ocean during core formation. The single-stage equilibrium scenario is seductive because experiments that equilibrate metal and silicate can then serve as a proxy for the early earth, and the physical and chemical conditions of core formation can be identified. Recently, models have become more complex as they try to accommodate the proliferation of element partitioning data sets, each of which sets its own limits on the pressure, temperature, and chemistry of equilibration. The ability of single stage models to explain mantle chemistry has subsequently been challenged, resulting in the development of complex multi-stage core formation models. Here we show that the extent to which extant partitioning data are consistent with single-stage core formation depends heavily upon (1) the assumptions made when regressing experimental partitioning data (2) the certainty with which regression coefficients are known and (3) the certainty with which the core/mantle concentration ratios of the siderophile elements are known. We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm coded in MATLAB that samples parameter space in pressure and oxygen fugacity for a given mantle composition (nbo/t) and liquidus, and returns the number of equilibrium single-stage liquidus “solutions” that are permissible, taking into account the uncertainty in regression parameters and range of acceptable core/mantle ratios. Here we explore the consequences of regression parameter uncertainty and the impact of regression construction on model outcomes. We find that the form of the partition coefficient (Kd with enforced valence state, or D) and the handling of the temperature effect (based on 1-atm free energy data or high P-T experimental observations) critically affects model outcomes. We consider the most

  7. Dynamics of an HIV Model with Multiple Infection Stages and Treatment with Different Drug Classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xia; Song, Xinyu; Tang, Sanyi; Rong, Libin

    2016-02-01

    Highly active antiretroviral therapy can effectively control HIV replication in infected individuals. Some clinical and modeling studies suggested that viral decay dynamics may depend on the inhibited stages of the viral replication cycle. In this paper, we develop a general mathematical model incorporating multiple infection stages and various drug classes that can interfere with specific stages of the viral life cycle. We derive the basic reproductive number and obtain the global stability results of steady states. Using several simple cases of the general model, we study the effect of various drug classes on the dynamics of HIV decay. When drugs are assumed to be 100% effective, drugs acting later in the viral life cycle lead to a faster or more rapid decay in viremia. This is consistent with some patient and experimental data, and also agrees with previous modeling results. When drugs are not 100% effective, the viral decay dynamics are more complicated. Without a second population of long-lived infected cells, the viral load decline can have two phases if drugs act at an intermediate stage of the viral replication cycle. The slopes of viral load decline depend on the drug effectiveness, the death rate of infected cells at different stages, and the transition rate of infected cells from one to the next stage. With a second population of long-lived infected cells, the viral load decline can have three distinct phases, consistent with the observation in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy containing the integrase inhibitor raltegravir. We also fit modeling prediction to patient data under efavirenz (a nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor) and raltegravir treatment. The first-phase viral load decline under raltegravir therapy is longer than that under efavirenz, resulting in a lower viral load at initiation of the second-phase decline in patients taking raltegravir. This explains why patients taking a raltegravir-based therapy were faster to achieve

  8. Reliability in the Power System Modeled in a Multi- Stage Stochastic Mixed Integer Programming Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen Nielsen, Michael Pascal

    Contributions from this article are that it takes the characteristics of the power system into account at different stages, which gives a more realistic presentation of the welfare aspects to be gained by an optimal operation/ dispatch of the power system. This article is utilizing a Multi...

  9. Colorimetric characterization of liquid crystal display using an improved two-stage model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Wang; Haisong Xu

    2006-01-01

    @@ An improved two-stage model of colorimetric characterization for liquid crystal display (LCD) was proposed. The model included an S-shape nonlinear function with four coefficients for each channel to fit the Tone reproduction curve (TRC), and a linear transfer matrix with black-level correction. To compare with the simple model (SM), gain-offset-gain (GOG), S-curve and three-one-dimensional look-up tables (3-1D LUTs) models, an identical LCD was characterized and the color differences were calculated and summarized using the set of 7 × 7 × 7 digital-to-analog converter (DAC) triplets as test data. The experimental results showed that the model was outperformed in comparison with the GOG and SM ones, and near to that of the S-curve model and 3-1D LUTs method.

  10. Trading stages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Interest in stage-and age structured models has recently increased because they can describe quantitative traits such as size that are left out of age-only demography. Available methods for the analysis of effects of vital rates on lifespan in stage-structured models have not been widely applied ...... examples. Much of our approach relies on trading of time and mortality risk in one stage for time and risk in others. Our approach contributes to the new framework of the study of age- and stage-structured biodemography....

  11. A model of pyrolysis in a staged scheme of low-grade solid fuel gasification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, A. A.; Shamansky, V. A.; Kozlov, A. N.

    2016-10-01

    The development and evolution of the theory of solid fuel combustion took place in the mid-20th century. The most studied research subject was sized fossil coal. At the same time the research on the fuels with a high yield of volatile matter (biomass) was limited due to insufficient data on kinetics of physical and chemical processes that occur at their heating. Obviously, the creation of a prospective low-tonnage technology for staged gasification of wooden biomass is possible only when a detailed mechanism of these processes is well understood and their kinetic parameters are known. This paper presents the initial results of the development of a model of wood pyrolysis in a screw reactor as the first stage of the multistage gasification process. One of the currently set goals in this research is to develop a mathematical model of heat and mass transfer processes to perform optimization calculations.

  12. Coupled simulation of CFD-flight-mechanics with a two-species-gas-model for the hot rocket staging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Reimann, Bodo; Eggers, Thino

    2016-11-01

    The hot rocket staging is to separate the lowest stage by directly ignite the continuing-stage-motor. During the hot staging, the rocket stages move in a harsh dynamic environment. In this work, the hot staging dynamics of a multistage rocket is studied using the coupled simulation of Computational Fluid Dynamics and Flight Mechanics. Plume modeling is crucial for a coupled simulation with high fidelity. A 2-species-gas model is proposed to simulate the flow system of the rocket during the staging: the free-stream is modeled as "cold air" and the exhausted plume from the continuing-stage-motor is modeled with an equivalent calorically-perfect-gas that approximates the properties of the plume at the nozzle exit. This gas model can well comprise between the computation accuracy and efficiency. In the coupled simulations, the Navier-Stokes equations are time-accurately solved in moving system, with which the Flight Mechanics equations can be fully coupled. The Chimera mesh technique is utilized to deal with the relative motions of the separated stages. A few representative staging cases with different initial flight conditions of the rocket are studied with the coupled simulation. The torque led by the plume-induced-flow-separation at the aft-wall of the continuing-stage is captured during the staging, which can assist the design of the controller of the rocket. With the increasing of the initial angle-of-attack of the rocket, the staging quality becomes evidently poorer, but the separated stages are generally stable when the initial angle-of-attack of the rocket is small.

  13. Spallation Fragment Investigation on Nb, Au and Pb by Using Many Stage Dynamical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The formation cross section of the nuclides production of proton-induced nuclear reactions withintermediate energy is of importance for a variety of applications. For instance, the mass and chargedistribution of residual products produced in the spallation reactions needs to be studied, because it canprovide useful information for the disposal of nuclear waste and residual radioactivity generated by thespallation neutron target system. At present work, we developed the many stage dynamical model

  14. Lumped-equivalent circuit model for multi-stage cascaded magnetoelectric dual-tunable bandpass filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张秋实; 朱锋杰; 周浩淼

    2015-01-01

    A lumped-equivalent circuit model of a novel magnetoelectric tunable bandpass filter, which is realized in the form of multi-stage cascading between a plurality of magnetoelectric laminates, is established in this paper for convenient analysis. The multi-stage cascaded filter is degraded to the coupling microstrip filter with only one magnetoelectric laminate and then compared with the existing experiment results. The comparison reveals that the insertion loss curves predicted by the degraded circuit model are in good agreement with the experiment results and the predicted results of the electromagnetic field simulation, thus the validity of the model is verified. The model is then degraded to the two-stage cascaded magneto-electric filter with two magnetoelectric laminates. It is revealed that if the applied external bias magnetic or electric fields on the two magnetoelectric laminates are identical, then the passband of the filter will drift under the changed external field; that is to say, the filter has the characteristics of external magnetic field tunability and electric field tunability. If the applied external bias magnetic or electric fields on two magnetoelectric laminates are different, then the passband will disappear so that the switching characteristic is achieved. When the same magnetic fields are applied to the laminates, the passband bandwidth of the two-stage cascaded magnetoelectric filter with two magnetoelectric laminates becomes nearly doubled in comparison with the passband filter which contains only one magnetoelectric laminate. The bandpass effect is also improved obviously. This research will provide a theoretical basis for the design, preparation, and application of a new high performance magnetoelectric tunable microwave device.

  15. Life stage and resistance effects in modelling phosphine fumigation of Rhyzopertha dominica (F.)

    OpenAIRE

    Thorne, J.; Fulford, G.; Ridley, A.; Schlipalius, D.; P. Collins

    2010-01-01

    Resistance to phosphine in insect pests of stored grain is a serious problem and there is a world-wide need for the development of sustainable resistance management strategies. Here we introduce results from a new mathematical model of resistance development that includes all life stages, rates of oviposition, natural mortality and mortality under fumigation in relation to resistant genotype. The example we discuss is phosphine resistance in the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica where ...

  16. Photon spectra from final stages of a primordial black hole evaporation in different theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Bugaev, Edgar; Petkov, Valery

    2007-01-01

    Possibilities of an experimental search for gamma-ray bursts from primordial black hole (PBH) evaporations in space are reconsidered. It is argued that the corresponding constraints which can be obtained in experiments with cosmic ray detectors strongly depend on theoretical approach used for a description of the PBH evaporation process. Predictions of several theoretical models for gamma-ray spectra from final stages of PBH life (integrated over time) are given.

  17. Cancerous Tumour Model Analysis and Constructing schemes of Anti-angiogenesis Therapy at an Early Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Yu. Mukhomorova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-angiogenesis therapy is an alternative and successfully employed method for treatment of cancerous tumour. However, this therapy isn't widely used in medicine because of expensive drugs. It leads naturally to elaboration of such treatment regimens which use minimum amount of drugs.The aim of the paper is to investigate the model of development of illness and elaborate appropriate treatment regimens in the case of early diagnosis of the disease. The given model reflects the therapy at an intermediate stage of the disease treatment. Further treatment is aimed to destroy cancer cells and may be continued by other means, which are not reflected in the model.Analysis of the main properties of the model was carried out with consideration of two types of auxiliary systems. In the first case, the system is considered without control, as a model of tumour development in the absence of medical treatment. The study of the equilibrium point and determination of its type allowed us to describe disease dynamics and to determine tumour size resulting in death. In the second case a model with a constant control was investigated. The study of its equilibrium point showed that continuous control is not sufficient to support satisfactory patient's condition, and it is necessary to elaborate more complex treatment regimens. For this purpose, we used the method of terminal problems consisting in the search for such program control which forces system to a given final state. Selecting the initial and final states is due to medical grounds.As a result, we found two treatment regimens | one-stage treatment regimen and multi-stage one. The properties of each treatment regimen are analyzed and compared. The total amount of used drugs was a criterion for comparing these two treatment regimens. The theoretical conclusions obtained in this work are supported by computer modeling in MATLAB environment.

  18. A Human Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for Chlorpyrifos: Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jordan N.; Hinderliter, Paul M.; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, M. J.; Poet, Torka S.

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to computationally predict disposition of CPF and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, age-dependent body weight was calculated from a generalized Gompertz function, and compartments (liver, brain, fat, blood, diaphragm, rapid, and slow) were scaled based on body weight from polynomial functions on a fractional body weight basis. Blood flows among compartments were calculated as a constant flow per compartment volume. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Model simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ≥ 0.55 mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (significantly higher than environmental exposure levels), 6 mo old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent oral doses of chlorpyrifos. At lower doses that are more relevant to environmental exposures, the model predicts that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict CPF disposition and biological response over various postnatal life-stages.

  19. Waterhammer Modeling for the Ares I Upper Stage Reaction Control System Cold Flow Development Test Article

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jonathan H.

    2010-01-01

    The Upper Stage Reaction Control System provides three-axis attitude control for the Ares I launch vehicle during active Upper Stage flight. The system design must accommodate rapid thruster firing to maintain the proper launch trajectory and thus allow for the possibility to pulse multiple thrusters simultaneously. Rapid thruster valve closure creates an increase in static pressure, known as waterhammer, which propagates throughout the propellant system at pressures exceeding nominal design values. A series of development tests conducted in the fall of 2009 at Marshall Space Flight Center were performed using a water-flow test article to better understand fluid performance characteristics of the Upper Stage Reaction Control System. A subset of the tests examined waterhammer along with the subsequent pressure and frequency response in the flight-representative system and provided data to anchor numerical models. This thesis presents a comparison of waterhammer test results with numerical model and analytical results. An overview of the flight system, test article, modeling and analysis are also provided.

  20. Two-stage model in perceptual learning: toward a unified theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibata, Kazuhisa; Sagi, Dov; Watanabe, Takeo

    2014-05-01

    Training or exposure to a visual feature leads to a long-term improvement in performance on visual tasks that employ this feature. Such performance improvements and the processes that govern them are called visual perceptual learning (VPL). As an ever greater volume of research accumulates in the field, we have reached a point where a unifying model of VPL should be sought. A new wave of research findings has exposed diverging results along three major directions in VPL: specificity versus generalization of VPL, lower versus higher brain locus of VPL, and task-relevant versus task-irrelevant VPL. In this review, we propose a new theoretical model that suggests the involvement of two different stages in VPL: a low-level, stimulus-driven stage, and a higher-level stage dominated by task demands. If experimentally verified, this model would not only constructively unify the current divergent results in the VPL field, but would also lead to a significantly better understanding of visual plasticity, which may, in turn, lead to interventions to ameliorate diseases affecting vision and other pathological or age-related visual and nonvisual declines.

  1. Fetal Origins of Life Stage Disease: A Zebrafish Model for the ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the U.S., childhood obesity has more than doubled in children and quadrupled in adolescents in the past 30 years, affects 35% of adults, and costs the U.S. healthcare industry >$200 billion annually. The chemical environment in the womb may cause susceptibility to different life-stage and life-long metabolic diseases including obesity. The challenge is to understand if exposures during developmentally sensitive windows impact life-stage disease, such as obesity, by increasing adipose tissue mass. In vitro models lack the integrated systems approach needed to assess adipose development, while mammalian models are impractical in a screen of thousands of chemicals. Therefore, an obesogen screening method was developed to interrogate bioactivity using a full systems approach, in a vertebrate zebrafish model with complete metabolic activity, at a time when the full signaling repertoire is expressed and active, to optimally examine how chemical dose and duration impact life-stage adipose mass. A time-line for adipose depot formation was mapped in zebrafish 6−14 days post fertilization (dpf) using the lipophilic dye, Nile Red, in combination with fluorescent microscopy. Those time points were then used to investigate the impact of embryonic tributyltin chloride (TBT, a known obesogen) exposure (10nM daily renewal, 0−5dpf) on adipose mass. Fluorescent microscopy revealed adipose depots that were larger and appeared 2 days earlier in TBT treated compared to contro

  2. Adaptive Urban Stormwater Management Using a Two-stage Stochastic Optimization Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, F.; Hobbs, B. F.; McGarity, A. E.

    2014-12-01

    In many older cities, stormwater results in combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and consequent water quality impairments. Because of the expense of traditional approaches for controlling CSOs, cities are considering the use of green infrastructure (GI) to reduce runoff and pollutants. Examples of GI include tree trenches, rain gardens, green roofs, and rain barrels. However, the cost and effectiveness of GI are uncertain, especially at the watershed scale. We present a two-stage stochastic extension of the Stormwater Investment Strategy Evaluation (StormWISE) model (A. McGarity, JWRPM, 2012, 111-24) to explicitly model and optimize these uncertainties in an adaptive management framework. A two-stage model represents the immediate commitment of resources ("here & now") followed by later investment and adaptation decisions ("wait & see"). A case study is presented for Philadelphia, which intends to extensively deploy GI over the next two decades (PWD, "Green City, Clean Water - Implementation and Adaptive Management Plan," 2011). After first-stage decisions are made, the model updates the stochastic objective and constraints (learning). We model two types of "learning" about GI cost and performance. One assumes that learning occurs over time, is automatic, and does not depend on what has been done in stage one (basic model). The other considers learning resulting from active experimentation and learning-by-doing (advanced model). Both require expert probability elicitations, and learning from research and monitoring is modelled by Bayesian updating (as in S. Jacobi et al., JWRPM, 2013, 534-43). The model allocates limited financial resources to GI investments over time to achieve multiple objectives with a given reliability. Objectives include minimizing construction and O&M costs; achieving nutrient, sediment, and runoff volume targets; and community concerns, such as aesthetics, CO2 emissions, heat islands, and recreational values. CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) and

  3. Automatic detection and classification of sleep stages by multichannel EEG signal modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhovna, Inna; Shallom, Ilan D

    2008-01-01

    In this paper a novel method for automatic detection and classification of sleep stages using a multichannel electroencephalography (EEG) is presented. Understanding the sleep mechanism is vital for diagnosis and treatment of sleep disorders. The EEG is one of the most important tools of studying and diagnosing sleep disorders. EEG signals waveforms activity interpretation is performed by visual analysis (a very difficult procedure). This research aim is to ease the difficulties involved in the existing manual process of EEG interpretation by proposing an automatic sleep stage detection and classification system. The suggested method based on Multichannel Auto Regressive (MAR) model. The multichannel analysis approach incorporates the cross correlation information existing between different EEG signals. In the training phase, we used the vector quantization (VQ) algorithm, Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG) and sleep stage definition, by estimation of probability mass functions (pmf) per every sleep stage using Generalized Log Likelihood Ratio (GLLR) distortion. The classification phase was performed using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The results of this research are promising with classification accuracy rate of 93.2%. The results encourage continuation of this research in the sleep field and in other biomedical signals applications.

  4. Submerged macrophyte communities in the Forsmark area. Building of a GIS application as a tool for biomass estimations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fredriksson, Ronny [Univ. of Kalmar (Sweden)

    2005-12-15

    substrate shape file, were defined by means of the depth grid. The vegetation community and covering degree was defined according to adjacent polygons with information about both depth and substrate. In areas with diving or boat transects close to one another, polygons were defined by joining similar observations together. The covering degree of the vegetation within the new polygon was calculated as a mean of the joined observations. In areas which had not been visited in previous studies, a mean of other readings on a certain depth was used to estimate vegetation community and covering degree. The type of information used to define the vegetation community and covering degree was noted for all polygons in the GIS application. As a final step the area of the polygons was calculated. Six macrophyte communities were identified in the Forsmark area. The identified communities were Phanerogams, Chara, Filamentous (brown and green) algae, Vaucheria, Fucus and Red algae.

  5. STOCHASTIC DISCRETE MODEL OF TWO-STAGE ISOLATION SYSTEM WITH RIGID LIMITERS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE Hua; FENG Qi; SHEN Rong-ying; WANG Yu

    2006-01-01

    The possible intermittent impacts of a two-stage isolation system with rigid limiters have been investigated. The isolation system is under periodic external excitation disturbed by small stationary Gaussian white noise after shock. The maximal impact Then in the period after shock, the zero order approximate stochastic discrete model and the first order approximate stochastic model are developed. The real isolation system of an MTU diesel engine is used to evaluate the established model. After calculating of the numerical example, the effects of noise excitation on the isolation system are discussed.The results show that the property of the system is complicated due to intermittent impact. The difference between zero order model and the first order model may be great.The effect of small noise is obvious. The results may be expected useful to the naval designers.

  6. New numerical model for thermal quenching mechanism in quartz based on two-stage thermal stimulation of thermoluminescence model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Kadari

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of thermal quenching plays an important role in the thermoluminescence (TL of quartz on which many applications of TL are based. The studies of the stability and kinetics of the 325 °C thermoluminescence peak in quartz are described by Wintle (1975, which show the occurrence of thermal quenching, the decrease in luminescence efficiency with rise in temperature. The thermal quenching of thermoluminescence in quartz was studied experimentally by several authors. The simulations work presented in the literature is based on the single-stage thermal stimulation model of thermoluminescence, in spite of that the mechanisms of this effect remain incomplete. This paper presents a new numerical model for thermal quenching in quartz, using the previously published two-stage thermal stimulation of thermoluminescence model.

  7. Dynamics of a Stage Structured Pest Control Model in a Polluted Environment with Pulse Pollution Input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available By using pollution model and impulsive delay differential equation, we formulate a pest control model with stage structure for natural enemy in a polluted environment by introducing a constant periodic pollutant input and killing pest at different fixed moments and investigate the dynamics of such a system. We assume only that the natural enemies are affected by pollution, and we choose the method to kill the pest without harming natural enemies. Sufficient conditions for global attractivity of the natural enemy-extinction periodic solution and permanence of the system are obtained. Numerical simulations are presented to confirm our theoretical results.

  8. Model reduction techniques for dynamics analysis of ultra-precision linear stage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xuedong CHEN; Zhixin LI

    2009-01-01

    Spring-damping elements are used to simplify the internal interaction in the proposed finite element (FE) model of an ultra-precision linear Stage. The dynamics behavior is studied. The comparison between mode shapes from the eigenvalue analysis shows that the components, except the translator, can represent system dynamics characteristics. A reduction approach is used to simplify the system in a dynamic studied. There is little difference between the vibration mode and the response analysis. The experimental modal analysis proves the validity of the reduction approach, which can be generalized to the development and dynamics characteristic study of a complex system model to obviously save computational resource.

  9. Simulation model of a single-stage lithium bromide-water absorption cooling unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, D.

    1978-01-01

    A computer model of a LiBr-H2O single-stage absorption machine was developed. The model, utilizing a given set of design data such as water-flow rates and inlet or outlet temperatures of these flow rates but without knowing the interior characteristics of the machine (heat transfer rates and surface areas), can be used to predict or simulate off-design performance. Results from 130 off-design cases for a given commercial machine agree with the published data within 2 percent.

  10. Three-stage fermentation and kinetic modeling of bioflocculant by Corynebacterium glutamicum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liang Shen; Zhongtao An; Qingbiao Li; Chuanyi Yao; Yajuan Peng; Yuanpeng Wang; Ruihua Lai; Xu Deng; Ning He

    2015-01-01

    Fermentation of bioflocculant with Corynebacterium glutamicum was studied by way of kinetic modeling. Lorentzian modified Logistic model, time-corrected Luedeking–Piret and Luedeking–Piret type models were pro-posed and applied to describe the cell growth, bioflocculant synthesis and consumption of substrates, with the correlation of initial biomass concentration and initial glucose concentration, respectively. The results showed that these models could well characterize the batch culture process of C. glutamicum at various initial glucose con-centrations from 10.0 to 17.5 g·L−1. The initial biomass concentration could shorten the lag time of cel growth, while the maximum biomass concentration was achieved only at the optimal initial glucose concentration of 16.22 g·L−1. A novel three-stage fed-batch strategy for bioflocculant production was developed based on the model prediction, in which the lag phase, quick biomass growth and bioflocculant production stages were sequentially proceeded with the adjustment of glucose concentration and dissolved oxygen. Biomass of 2.23 g·L−1 was obtained and bioflocculant concentration was enhanced to 176.32 mg·L−1, 18.62% and 403.63%higher than those in the batch process, respectively, indicating an efficient fed-batch culture strategy for bioflocculant production.

  11. Three-dimensional computer modeling of birds proepicardium on different stages of embryogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pototskaya O.Yu.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available As the proepicardium is the source of many cell populations of the mature heart, including cell components of coronary vessels, its investigation became actual last time. It is known, that there are some differences between birds and mammalian proepicardium; one of them consists in the way, in which they contact to myocardium: mammalian proepicardium produce vesicles, which contact to atrioventricular groove, wile in birds there is no vesicles and whole protrusions of proepicardium attach to the heart. But, recent years it became evident, that in rat proepicardium there are no vesicles during all stages of its existence, and in birds there is a proepicardium-like structure producing vesicles, which attach to the heart. Thus, the goal of our research was to characterize changes in the shape of proepicardium during bird’s embryogenesis. We used Cobb 500 chick embryos as a material; on the basis of pictures of proepicardium serial sections, with the help of Photoshop CS2, Amira for microscopy 5.0, 3ds max 8.0 computer programs, we made three-dimensional models of proepicardium on 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 stages of development by V.Hamburger, H.Hamilton, 1951. The most important changes in proepicardium shape observed from 14 to 20 stages of development. During this period proepicardium appeared on the right horn of sinus venous, enlarged and formed several crests, which contacted to atrioventricular groove. Coalescence of these crests led to dorsal mesocardium formation. From 21 to 27 stages of development there were no significant changes in proepicardium shape; the area of its contact to sinus venous was grown downwards while the area of contact to the heart enlarged. No vesicles, no “finger-like protrusions” were observed on any stage of bird’s development.

  12. Applying the Health Belief Model in Explaining the Stages of Exercise Change in Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sas-Nowosielski Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The benefits of physical activity (PA have been so well documented that there is no doubt about the significance of PA for personal and social health. Several theoretical models have been proposed with a view to understanding the phenomenon of PA and other health behaviours. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if and how the variables suggested in the Health Belief Model (HBM determine physical activity stages of change in older adults. Material and methods. A total of 172 students of Universities of the Third Age aged 54 to 75 (mean = 62.89 ± 4.83 years agreed to participate in the study, filling out an anonymous survey measuring their stage of exercise change and determinants of health behaviours proposed by the HBM, including: perceived benefits of physical activity, perceived barriers to physical activity, perceived severity of diseases associated with sedentary lifestyle, perceived susceptibility to these diseases, and self-efficacy. Results. The results only partially support the hypothesis that the HBM predicts intentions and behaviours related to the physical activity of older adults. Only two variables were moderately-to-strongly related to stages of exercise change, namely perceived barriers and self-efficacy. Conclusion. Interventions aimed at informing older adults about the benefits of physical activity and the threats associated with sedentary lifestyle can be expected to have rather a weak influence on their readiness for physical activity.

  13. Structured model of bacterial growth and tests with activated sludge in a one-stage and two-stage chemostat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harder, A.

    1979-01-01

    A kinetic model for a growing culture of micro-organisms was developed that correlated the biochemical structure of cells with quantitative physiological behaviour. The three-compartment model was adequate for simulation of continuous, batch and transient experiments with activated sludge fed on van

  14. A novel data-driven prognostic model for staging of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manilich, Elena A; Kiran, Ravi P; Radivoyevitch, Tomas; Lavery, Ian; Fazio, Victor W; Remzi, Feza H

    2011-11-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a novel prognostic model that captures complex interplay among clinical and histologic factors to predict survival of patients with colorectal cancer after a radical potentially curative resection. Survival data of 2,505 colon cancer and 2,430 rectal cancer patients undergoing radical colorectal resection between 1969 and 2007 were analyzed by random forest technology. The effect of TNM and non-TNM factors such as histologic grade, lymph node ratio (number positive/number resected), type of operation, neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, and age in staging and prognosis were evaluated. A forest of 1,000 random survival trees was grown using log-rank splitting. Competing risk-adjusted random survival forest methods were used to maximize survival prediction and produce importance measures of the predictor variables. Competing risk-adjusted 5-year survival after resection of colon and rectal cancer was dominated by pT stage (ie, tumor infiltration depth) and lymph node ratio. Increased lymph node ratio was associated with worse survival within the same pT stage for both colon and rectal cancer patients. Whereas survival for colon cancer was affected by ASA grade, the type of resection and neoadjuvant therapy had a strong effect on rectal cancer survival. A similar pattern in predicted survival rates was observed for patients with fewer than 12 lymph nodes examined. Our model suggests that lymph node ratio remains a significant predictor of survival in this group. A novel data-driven methodology predicts the survival times of patients with colorectal cancer and identifies patterns of cancer characteristics. The methods lead to stage groupings that could redefine the composition of TNM in a simple and orderly way. The higher predictive power of lymph node ratio as compared with traditional pN lymph node stage has specific implications and may address the important question of accuracy

  15. Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Jose R.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.; Porter, Cheryl; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

    2017-01-01

    Current rates of agricultural water use are unsustainable in many regions, creating an urgent need to identify improved irrigation strategies for water limited areas. Crop models can be used to quantify plant water requirements, predict the impact of water shortages on yield, and calculate water productivity (WP) to link water availability and crop yields for economic analyses. Many simulations of crop growth and development, especially in regional and global assessments, rely on automatic irrigation algorithms to estimate irrigation dates and amounts. However, these algorithms are not well suited for water limited regions because they have simplistic irrigation rules, such as a single soil-moisture based threshold, and assume unlimited water. To address this constraint, a new modeling framework to simulate agricultural production in water limited areas was developed. The framework consists of a new automatic irrigation algorithm for the simulation of growth stage based deficit irrigation under limited seasonal water availability; and optimization of growth stage specific parameters. The new automatic irrigation algorithm was used to simulate maize and soybean in Gainesville, Florida, and first used to evaluate the sensitivity of maize and soybean simulations to irrigation at different growth stages and then to test the hypothesis that water productivity calculated using simplistic irrigation rules underestimates WP. In the first experiment, the effect of irrigating at specific growth stages on yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in maize and soybean was evaluated. In the reproductive stages, IWUE tended to be higher than in the vegetative stages (e.g. IWUE was 18% higher than the well watered treatment when irrigating only during R3 in soybean), and when rainfall events were less frequent. In the second experiment, water productivity (WP) was significantly greater with optimized irrigation schedules compared to non-optimized irrigation schedules in

  16. Population balance modelling and multi-stage optimal control of a pulsed spray fluidized bed granulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huolong; Li, Mingzhong

    2014-07-01

    In this work, one-dimensional population balance models (PBMs) have been developed to model a pulsed top-spray fluidized bed granulation. The developed PBMs have linked the key binder solution spray operating factors of the binder spray rate, atomizing air pressure and pulsed frequency of spray with the granule properties to predict granule growth behaviour in the pulsed spray fluidized bed granulation process at different operating conditions with accuracy. A multi-stage open optimal control strategy based on the developed PBMs was proposed to reduce the model mismatch, in which through adjusting the trajectory of the evolution of the granule size distribution at predefined sample intervals, to determine the optimal operating variables related to the binder spray including the spray rate of binding liquid, atomizing air pressure and pulsed frequency of spray. The effectiveness of the proposed modelling and multi-stage open optimal control strategies has been validated by experimental and simulation tests. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A decision-analytic model for early stage breast cancer: lumpectomy vs mastectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büyükdamgaci-Alogan, G; Elele, T; Hayran, M; Erman, M; Kiliçkap, S

    2008-01-01

    The purpose was to construct a decision model that incorporated patient preferences over differing health state prospects and to analyze the decision context of early stage breast cancer patients in relation to two main surgical treatment options. A Markov chain was constructed to project the clinical history of breast carcinoma following surgery. A Multi Attribute Utility Model was developed for outcome evaluation. Transition probabilities were obtained by using subjective probability assessment. This study was performed on the sample population of female university students and utilities were elicited from these healthy volunteers. The results were validated by using Standard Gamble technique. Finally, Monte Carlo Simulation was utilized in Treeage-Pro 2006-Suit software program in order to calculate expected utility generated by each treatment option. The results showed that, if the subject had mastectomy, mean value for the quality adjusted life years gained was 6.42; on the other hand, if the preference was lumpectomy, it was 7.00 out of a possible 10 years. Sensitivity analysis on transition probabilities to local recurrence and salvaged states was performed and two threshold values were observed. Additionally, sensitivity analysis on utilities showed that the model was more sensitive to no evidence of disease state; however, was not sensitive to utilities of local recurrence and salvaged states. The decision model was developed with reasonable success for early stage breast cancer patients, and tested by using general public data. The results obtained from these data showed that lumpectomy was more favourable for these participants.

  18. New higher-order Godunov code for modelling performance of two-stage light gas guns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanoff, D. W.; Miller, R. J.

    1995-01-01

    A new quasi-one-dimensional Godunov code for modeling two-stage light gas guns is described. The code is third-order accurate in space and second-order accurate in time. A very accurate Riemann solver is used. Friction and heat transfer to the tube wall for gases and dense media are modeled and a simple nonequilibrium turbulence model is used for gas flows. The code also models gunpowder burn in the first-stage breech. Realistic equations of state (EOS) are used for all media. The code was validated against exact solutions of Riemann's shock-tube problem, impact of dense media slabs at velocities up to 20 km/sec, flow through a supersonic convergent-divergent nozzle and burning of gunpowder in a closed bomb. Excellent validation results were obtained. The code was then used to predict the performance of two light gas guns (1.5 in. and 0.28 in.) in service at the Ames Research Center. The code predictions were compared with measured pressure histories in the powder chamber and pump tube and with measured piston and projectile velocities. Very good agreement between computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions and measurements was obtained. Actual powder-burn rates in the gun were found to be considerably higher (60-90 percent) than predicted by the manufacturer and the behavior of the piston upon yielding appears to differ greatly from that suggested by low-strain rate tests.

  19. CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF STAGED FORMATION OF AN INDIVIDUAL CREATIVE METHOD OF AN ARCHITECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolstet O. A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the development of a model of gradual formation of individual creative method of an architect in the propaedeutic level since preuniversity stage (with the involvement of distance training and its continuity of the first courses of architectural disciplines in high school in terms of the Rostov school of architecture. There have been examined some studies by Nechaev N.N. and Sulimenko S.D. at the architectural department of the Far Eastern Technical University, that have revealed a non-linear nature of the formation of spatial thinking and the need to develop a systematic approach in the propaedeutic phase of training. These studies formed the basis of a new conceptual model. A list of the input competence requirements for applicants entering architectural universities to ensure the quality of training at university propaedeutic phase is done. Methodological feature of the Rostov school of architecture, which is both a synthesis of problems in the field of threedimensional composition and design problems is revealed, as well as a combination of methods of modeling and manual architectural drawing with computer graphics (SketchUp, CorelDraw, Photoshop, AutoCad. The schemes of a number of separate stages of the formation of individual creative method of the architect, as well as the general scheme of the whole conceptual model is given

  20. A multi-stage compartmental model for HIV-infected individuals: I--waiting time approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billard, L; Dayananda, P W A

    2014-03-01

    Traditionally, epidemic processes have focused on establishing systems of differential-difference equations governing the number of individuals at each stage of the epidemic. Except for simple situations such as when transition rates are linear, these equations are notoriously intractable mathematically. In this work, the process is described as a compartmental model. The model also allows for individuals to go directly from any prior compartment directly to a final stage corresponding to death. This allows for the possibility that individuals can die earlier due to some non-disease related cause. Then, the model is based on waiting times in each compartment. Survival probabilities of moving from a given compartment to another compartment are established. While our approach can be used for general epidemic processes, our framework is for the HIV/AIDS process. It is then possible to establish the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic process on, e.g., insurance premiums and payouts and health-care costs. The effect of changing model parameter values on these entities is investigated.

  1. A two-stage storage routing model for green roof runoff detention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesuviano, Gianni; Sonnenwald, Fred; Stovin, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs have been adopted in urban drainage systems to control the total quantity and volumetric flow rate of runoff. Modern green roof designs are multi-layered, their main components being vegetation, substrate and, in almost all cases, a separate drainage layer. Most current hydrological models of green roofs combine the modelling of the separate layers into a single process; these models have limited predictive capability for roofs not sharing the same design. An adaptable, generic, two-stage model for a system consisting of a granular substrate over a hard plastic 'egg box'-style drainage layer and fibrous protection mat is presented. The substrate and drainage layer/protection mat are modelled separately by previously verified sub-models. Controlled storm events are applied to a green roof system in a rainfall simulator. The time-series modelled runoff is compared to the monitored runoff for each storm event. The modelled runoff profiles are accurate (mean Rt(2) = 0.971), but further characterization of the substrate component is required for the model to be generically applicable to other roof configurations with different substrate.

  2. Modelled interglacial carbon cycle dynamics during the Holocene, the Eemian and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinen, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; Munhoven, Guy

    2016-11-01

    Trends in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during three recent interglacials - the Holocene, the Eemian and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 - are investigated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, which we extended with process-based modules to consider two slow carbon cycle processes - peat accumulation and shallow-water CaCO3 sedimentation (coral reef formation). For all three interglacials, model simulations considering peat accumulation and shallow-water CaCO3 sedimentation substantially improve the agreement between model results and ice core CO2 reconstructions in comparison to a carbon cycle set-up neglecting these processes. This enables us to model the trends in atmospheric CO2, with modelled trends similar to the ice core data, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. During the Holocene, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are required to match the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 after 3 ka BP but are not relevant before this time. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends by the inclusion of the slow carbon cycle processes, allowing us to explain the CO2 evolution during the Holocene and two recent interglacials consistently using an identical model set-up.

  3. A hybrid deep neural network and physically based distributed model for river stage prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    hitokoto, Masayuki; sakuraba, Masaaki

    2016-04-01

    We developed the real-time river stage prediction model, using the hybrid deep neural network and physically based distributed model. As the basic model, 4 layer feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) was used. As a network training method, the deep learning technique was applied. To optimize the network weight, the stochastic gradient descent method based on the back propagation method was used. As a pre-training method, the denoising autoencoder was used. Input of the ANN model is hourly change of water level and hourly rainfall, output data is water level of downstream station. In general, the desirable input of the ANN has strong correlation with the output. In conceptual hydrological model such as tank model and storage-function model, river discharge is governed by the catchment storage. Therefore, the change of the catchment storage, downstream discharge subtracted from rainfall, can be the potent input candidate of the ANN model instead of rainfall. From this point of view, the hybrid deep neural network and physically based distributed model was developed. The prediction procedure of the hybrid model is as follows; first, downstream discharge was calculated by the distributed model, and then estimates the hourly change of catchment storage form rainfall and calculated discharge as the input of the ANN model, and finally the ANN model was calculated. In the training phase, hourly change of catchment storage can be calculated by the observed rainfall and discharge data. The developed model was applied to the one catchment of the OOYODO River, one of the first-grade river in Japan. The modeled catchment is 695 square km. For the training data, 5 water level gauging station and 14 rain-gauge station in the catchment was used. The training floods, superior 24 events, were selected during the period of 2005-2014. Prediction was made up to 6 hours, and 6 models were developed for each prediction time. To set the proper learning parameters and network

  4. Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueredo, Grazziela P; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Owen, Markus R; Reps, Jenna; Aickelin, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm.

  5. Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazziela P Figueredo

    Full Text Available There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1 Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2 Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3 Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm.

  6. Forsmark site investigation. Geophysical, radar and BIPS logging in boreholes HFM01, HFM02, HFM03 and the percussion drilled part of KFM01A

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, Christer; Nilsson, Per [Malaa Geoscience AB/RAYCON, Jaerfaella (Sweden)

    2003-03-01

    This document reports the data gained during logging operations, which is one of the activities performed within the site investigation at Forsmark. The logging operations presented here include geophysical logging with Wellmac, RAMAC and BIPS. In total, 430 metres of logging was carried out in four percussion drilled boreholes. The boreholes in question are; KFM01A (c. 100 m deep of which 50 m were logged/diameter 165 mm), HFM01 (200 m/140 mm), HFM02 (100 m/140 mm) and HFM03 (30 m/140 mm). The borehole referred to as KFM01A is the uppermost, percussion drilled part of a c 1000 m deep telescopic drilled borehole of which the section 1001000 metres is core drilled. All measurements were conducted in June 2002. Instruments used: Borehole radar (RAMAC) system with dipole radar antennas. Borehole TV system (Borehole Image Processing System BIPS), a high resolution, side viewing, colour borehole TV system. Borehole geophysical logging system (WELLMAC)

  7. The GRENE-TEA Model Intercomparison Project (GTMIP: overview and experiment protocol for Stage 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Miyazaki

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available As part of the terrestrial branch of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA, which aims to clarify the role and function of the Arctic terrestrial system in the climate system, and assess the influence of its changes on a global scale, this model intercomparison project (GTMIP is planned and being conducted to (1 enhance communication and understanding between the "minds and hands" (i.e., between the modelling and field scientists and (2 assess the uncertainty and variations stemming from variability in model implementation/design and in model outputs due to climatic and historical conditions in the Arctic terrestrial regions. This paper provides an overview and the experiment protocol of Stage 1 of the project, site simulations driven by statistically fitted data created using the GRENE-TEA site observations for the last three decades. The target metrics for the model evaluation cover key processes in both physics and biogeochemistry, including energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budgets. The preliminary results on four metrics (annual mean latent heat flux, annual maximum snow depth, gross primary production, and net ecosystem production already demonstrate the range of variations in reproducibility among existing models and sites. Full analysis on annual as well as seasonal time scales, to be conducted upon completion of model outputs submission, will delineate inter-dependence among the key processes, and provide the clue for improving the model performance.

  8. Modeling Humans as Reinforcement Learners: How to Predict Human Behavior in Multi-Stage Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ritchie; Wolpert, David H.; Backhaus, Scott; Bent, Russell; Bono, James; Tracey, Brendan

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel framework for modeling interacting humans in a multi-stage game environment by combining concepts from game theory and reinforcement learning. The proposed model has the following desirable characteristics: (1) Bounded rational players, (2) strategic (i.e., players account for one anothers reward functions), and (3) is computationally feasible even on moderately large real-world systems. To do this we extend level-K reasoning to policy space to, for the first time, be able to handle multiple time steps. This allows us to decompose the problem into a series of smaller ones where we can apply standard reinforcement learning algorithms. We investigate these ideas in a cyber-battle scenario over a smart power grid and discuss the relationship between the behavior predicted by our model and what one might expect of real human defenders and attackers.

  9. A behavioral stages model of classical (Pavlovian) conditioning: application to cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, D A

    1999-01-01

    In the present article, it is argued that a five-stage sequential model of the behavioral and neurophysiological events that occur when organisms are exposed to signals predicting significant events suggests that classical conditioning produces multiple memory traces involving both excitatory and inhibitory processes. Further, these multiple brain structures and associated neurophysiological mechanisms are beginning to be understood; thus, using Pavlovian conditioning techniques to study aging and cognitive functions may provide insights into which brain structures or mechanisms are responsible for more general age-related declines in associative learning and memory. The evidence for this model is briefly reviewed and studies suggesting age-related effects on classical conditioning of various response systems are described within the context of the brain structures implicated by the model.

  10. Spatially-explicit matrix models. A mathematical analysis of stage-structured integrodifference equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutscher, Frithjof; Lewis, Mark A

    2004-03-01

    This paper is concerned with mathematical analysis of the 'critical domain-size' problem for structured populations. Space is introduced explicitly into matrix models for stage-structured populations. Movement of individuals is described by means of a dispersal kernel. The mathematical analysis investigates conditions for existence, stability and uniqueness of equilibrium solutions as well as some bifurcation behaviors. These mathematical results are linked to species persistence or extinction in connected habitats of different sizes or fragmented habitats; hence the framework is given for application of such models to ecology. Several approximations which reduce the complexity of integrodifference equations are given. A simple example is worked out to illustrate the analytical results and to compare the behavior of the integrodifference model to that of the approximations.

  11. ADM1-based modeling of methane production from acidified sweet sorghum extractin a two stage process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonopoulou, Georgia; Gavala, Hariklia N.; Skiadas, Ioannis

    2012-01-01

    The present study focused on the application of the Anaerobic Digestion Model 1 οn the methane production from acidified sorghum extract generated from a hydrogen producing bioreactor in a two-stage anaerobic process. The kinetic parameters for hydrogen and volatile fatty acids consumption were...... estimated through fitting of the model equations to the data obtained from batch experiments. The simulation of the continuous reactor performance at all HRTs tested (20, 15 and 10d) was very satisfactory. Specifically, the largest deviation of the theoretical predictions against the experimental data...... was 12% for the methane production rate at the HRT of 20d while the deviation values for the 15 and 10 d HRT were 1.9% and 1.1%, respectively. The model predictions regarding pH, methane percentage in the gas phase and COD removal were in very good agreement with the experimental data with a deviation...

  12. Mathematical modeling of the heat treatment and combustion of a coal particle. III. Volatile escape stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enkhjargal, Kh.; Salomatov, V. V.

    2011-05-01

    The present paper is a continuation of previous publications of the authors in this journal in which two phases of the multistage process of combustion of a coal particle were considered in detail with the help of mathematical modeling: its radiation-convection heating and drying. In the present work, the escape dynamics of volatiles is investigated. The physico-mathematical model of the thermodestruction of an individual coal particle with a dominant influence of endothermal effects has been formulated. Approximate-analytical solutions of this model that are of paramount importance for detailed analysis of the influence of the physical and regime parameters on the escape dynamics of volatiles have been found. The results obtained form the basis for engineering calculations of the volatile escape stage and can be used successfully in the search for effective regimes of burning of various solid fuels, in particular, Shivé-Ovoos coal of Mongolia.

  13. MODELING OF THE DIVERSION CHANNEL CLOSURE FOR THE THIRD STAGE OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangqian WANG; Baosheng WU; Junqiang XIA

    2004-01-01

    The closure of third stage diversion channel for the Three Gorges Dam is characterized by large closure discharge, large drop in water surface, and high gap velocity. 1D and 2D flow mathematical models were used in this paper to simulate the hydraulic conditions during the closure. The variation of discharge in the diversion channel and the drops in water surface shared by the upstream and downstream cofferdams were computed using the 1D model, and the detailed hydraulic patterns in the diversion channel were simulated using the 2D model. The computed results indicate that the designed closure scheme for discharge of 9,010 m3/s was feasible for construction, while the designed closure scheme for discharge of 12,200 m3/s was inapplicable.

  14. Effect of the initial stage of annealing on modeling of enthalpy relaxation in a hyperquenched glass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yanfei; Guo, Xiaoju; Yue, Yuanzheng

    2013-01-01

    relaxation in both HQG and AHQG during the initial stage of both the sub-Tg and above-Tg annealing cannot be captured by the existing models. In this Letter we show that the combination of a modified stretched exponential equation [M. Peyron, et al., J. Magn. Reson, Series A 118 (1996) 214] and the recently......One of the major challenges in glass relaxation study is to establish a universal model describing the enthalpy relaxation in both the hyperquenched glass (HQG) (i.e., far from equilibrium) and the partially annealed hyperquenched glass(AHQG). In particular, the detailed features of the enthalpy...... proposed composite relaxation function [L. Hornboell, et al., Chem. Phys. Lett. 1-3 (2010) 37] is a reasonable approach for describing those features. In addition, our modeling results imply that the structural heterogeneity plays a crucial role in relaxation of HQG....

  15. Stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection: The effect of the initial infection-free period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, José A.; de la Rubia, F. Javier

    2013-04-01

    We propose a stage-dependent model with constant delay to study the effect of the initial infection-free period on the spread of Hantavirus infection in rodents. We analyze the model under various extreme weather conditions, in the context of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and show how these variations determine the evolution of the system significantly. When the scenario corresponds to El Niño, the system presents a demographic explosion and a delayed outbreak of Hantavirus infection, whereas if the scenario is the opposite there is a rapid decline of the population, but with a possible persistence period that may imply a considerable risk for public health, a fact that is in agreement with available field data. We use the model to simulate a historical evolution that resembles the processes that occurred in the 1990s.

  16. Lack of miRNA misregulation at early pathological stages in Drosophila neurodegenerative disease models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita eReinhardt

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Late onset neurodegenerative diseases represent a major public health concern as the population in many countries ages. Both frequent diseases such as Alzheimer disease (AD, 14% incidence for 80-84 year old Europeans or Parkinson disease (PD, 1.4% prevalence for > 55 years old share, with other low-incidence neurodegenerative pathologies such as spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs, 0.01% prevalence and frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD, 0.02% prevalence, a lack of efficient treatment in spite of important research efforts. Besides significant progress, studies with animal models have revealed unexpected complexities in the degenerative process, emphasizing a need to better understand the underlying pathological mechanisms. Recently, microRNAs, a class of small regulatory non-coding RNAs, have been implicated in some neurodegenerative diseases. The current data supporting a role of miRNAs in PD, tauopathies, dominant ataxias and FTLD will first be discussed to emphasize the different levels of the pathological processes which may be affected by miRNAs. To investigate a potential involvement of miRNA dysregulation in the early stages of these neurodegenerative diseases we have used Drosophila models for 7 diseases (PD, 3 FTLD, 3 dominant ataxias that recapitulate many features of the human diseases. We performed deep sequencing of head small RNAs after 3 days of pathological protein expression in the fly head neurons. We found no evidence for a statistically significant difference in miRNA expression in this early stage of the pathological process. In addition, we could not identify small non coding CAG repeat RNAs (sCAG in polyQ disease models. Thus our data suggest that transcriptional deregulation of miRNAs or sCAG is unlikely to play a significant role in the initial stages of neurodegenerative diseases.

  17. Proteomics-based systems biology modeling of bovine germinal vesicle stage oocyte and cumulus cell interaction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divyaswetha Peddinti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Oocytes are the female gametes which establish the program of life after fertilization. Interactions between oocyte and the surrounding cumulus cells at germinal vesicle (GV stage are considered essential for proper maturation or 'programming' of oocytes, which is crucial for normal fertilization and embryonic development. However, despite its importance, little is known about the molecular events and pathways involved in this bidirectional communication. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used differential detergent fractionation multidimensional protein identification technology (DDF-Mud PIT on bovine GV oocyte and cumulus cells and identified 811 and 1247 proteins in GV oocyte and cumulus cells, respectively; 371 proteins were significantly differentially expressed between each cell type. Systems biology modeling, which included Gene Ontology (GO and canonical genetic pathway analysis, showed that cumulus cells have higher expression of proteins involved in cell communication, generation of precursor metabolites and energy, as well as transport than GV oocytes. Our data also suggests a hypothesis that oocytes may depend on the presence of cumulus cells to generate specific cellular signals to coordinate their growth and maturation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Systems biology modeling of bovine oocytes and cumulus cells in the context of GO and protein interaction networks identified the signaling pathways associated with the proteins involved in cell-to-cell signaling biological process that may have implications in oocyte competence and maturation. This first comprehensive systems biology modeling of bovine oocytes and cumulus cell proteomes not only provides a foundation for signaling and cell physiology at the GV stage of oocyte development, but are also valuable for comparative studies of other stages of oocyte development at the molecular level.

  18. Modelling and Control of the Multi-stage Cable Pulley-driven Flexible-joint Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phongsaen Pitakwatchara

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This work is concerned with the task space impedance control of a robot driven through a multi-stage nonlinear flexible transmission system. Specifically, a two degrees-of-freedom cable pulley-driven flexible-joint robot is considered. Realistic modelling of the system is developed within the bond graph modelling framework. The model captures the nonlinear compliance behaviour of the multi-stage cable pulley transmission system, the spring effect of the augmented counterbalancing mechanism, the major loss throughout the system elements, and the typical inertial dynamics of the robot. Next, a task space impedance controller based on limited information about the angle and the current of the motors is designed. The motor current is used to infer the transmitted torque, by which the motor inertia may be modulated. The motor angle is employed to estimate the stationary distal robot link angle and the robot joint velocity. They are used in the controller to generate the desired damping force and to shape the potential energy of the flexible joint robot system to the desired configuration. Simulation and experimental results of the controlled system signify the competency of the proposed control law.

  19. Evaluation of a prognostic model for risk of relapse in stage I seminoma surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Peter; Daugaard, Gedske; Tyldesley, Scott; Atenafu, Eshetu G; Panzarella, Tony; Kollmannsberger, Christian; Warde, Padraig

    2015-01-01

    A prognostic model for relapse risk in stage I seminoma managed by surveillance after orchiectomy has been developed but has not been independently validated. Individual data on 685 stage I seminoma surveillance patients managed between 1998 and 2005 at three cancer centers were retrospectively analyzed. Variables including age and pathology of the primary tumor: small vessel invasion, tumor size, and invasion of rete testis were analyzed. Specifically median tumor size and rete testis invasion was tested to evaluate the performance of the published model. Median follow-up was 3.85 years (0.1-10.29), 88 patients relapsed and 5-year relapse-free rate was 85%. In univariate analysis, median tumor size (seminoma surveillance as we were unable to validate the previously developed model. However, primary tumor size retained prognostic importance and a scale of relapse risk based on the unit increment of tumor size was developed to help guide patients and clinicians in decision making. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Non-linear Langevin model for the early-stage dynamics of electrospinning jets

    CERN Document Server

    Lauricella, Marco; Pisignano, Dario; Succi, Sauro

    2015-01-01

    We present a non-linear Langevin model to investigate the early-stage dynamics of electrified polymer jets in electrospinning experiments. In particular, we study the effects of air drag force on the uniaxial elongation of the charged jet, right after ejection from the nozzle. Numerical simulations show that the elongation of the jet filament close to the injection point is significantly affected by the non-linear drag exerted by the surrounding air. These result provide useful insights for the optimal design of current and future electrospinning experiments.

  1. Hormone-dependent Model on Seed Germination Sensitive to Growth Stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawaguchi, Satoshi; Mimura, Masayasu; Ohya, Tomoyuki; Okabe, Hirotaka; Kai, Shoichi

    2000-04-01

    In the germination of seeds, there often observes cluster-formation of well-grown roots and the edge effect phenomenon.During germination and growth before starting photosynthesis, direct interaction such as competition for nutrition among hosts is rather weak because of self-supplying of nutrition.Instead, hormones play an important role and may cause the above experimental observations.In order to understand these aspects, we propose a growth model for root.The hormone effect and its growth-stage-dependent sensitivity are taken into consideration.It is discussed how the growth process of grouping roots is influenced by exogenous hormones secreted from roots.

  2. Dynamic behaviors of a delayed HIV model with stage-structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Pengmiao; Fan, Dejun; Wei, Junjie; Liu, Qinghe

    2012-12-01

    Inspired by a simulation specific to a delayed HIV model with stage-structure, some dynamic behaviors are studied in this paper, including global stability of disease-free equilibrium and local Hopf bifurcation when taking the delay as a parameter. The corresponding characteristic equation is a transcendental equation, with the parameters delay-dependent, thus we use the conventional analysis introduced by Beretta and Kuang to obtain sufficient conditions to the existence of Hopf bifurcation. Then some properties of Hopf bifurcation such as direction, stability and period are determined, and several examples illustrate our results.

  3. Modeling and Nonlinear Control of Electric Power Stage in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahri, A.; El Fadil, H.; Guerrero, Josep M.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of modeling and controlling the electric power stage of hybrid electric vehicle. The controlled system consists of a fuel cell (FC) as a main source, a supercapacitor as an auxiliary source, two DC-DC power converters, an inverter and a traction induction motor...... based approach is used to control the DC/DC power converters associated with the DC sources, the backstepping technique combined with the field oriented control strategy are invoked in order to control the induction motor. It is formally shown, using a theoretical analysis and simulation results...

  4. A Model of Isotope Separation in Cells at the Early Stages of Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melkikh, A V; Bokunyaeva, A O

    2016-03-01

    The separation of the isotopes of certain ions can serve as an important criterion for the presence of life in the early stages of its evolution. A model of the separation of isotopes during their transport through the cell membrane is constructed. The dependence of the selection coefficient on various parameters is found. In particular, it is shown that the maximum efficiency of the transport of ions corresponds to the minimum enrichment coefficient. At the maximum enrichment, the efficiency of the transport system approaches ½. Calculated enrichment coefficients are compared with experimentally obtained values for different types of cells, and the comparison shows a qualitative agreement between these quantities.

  5. Dynamic modeling of a three-stage low-temperature ethanol reformer for fuel cell application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Vanesa M.; Serra, Maria [Institut de Robotica i Informatica Industrial (CSIC-UPC), Llorens i Artigas 4-6, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Lopez, Eduardo; Llorca, Jordi [Institut de Tecniques Energetiques, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, ed. ETSEIB, 08028 Barcelona (Spain)

    2009-07-01

    A low-temperature ethanol reformer based on a cobalt catalyst for the production of hydrogen has been designed aiming the feed of a fuel cell for an autonomous low-scale power production unit. The reformer comprises three stages: ethanol dehydrogenation to acetaldehyde and hydrogen over SnO{sub 2} followed by acetaldehyde steam reforming over Co(Fe)/ZnO catalyst and water gas shift reaction. Kinetic data have been obtained under different experimental conditions and a dynamic model has been developed for a tubular reformer loaded with catalytic monoliths for the production of the hydrogen required to feed a 1 kW PEMFC. (author)

  6. Targeted labeling of an early-stage tumor spheroid in a chorioallantoic membrane model with upconversion nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Liu; J.A. Holz; Y. Ding; X. Liu; Y. Zhang; L. Tu; X. Kong; B. Priem; A. Nadort; S.A.G. Lambrechts; M.C.G. Aalders; W.J. Buma; Y. Liu; H. Zhang

    2015-01-01

    In vivo detection of cancer at an early-stage, i.e. smaller than 2 mm, is a challenge in biomedicine. In this work target labeling of an early-stage tumor spheroid (similar to 500 mu m) is realized for the first time in a chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model with monoclonal antibody fun

  7. Chemical analysis of simulated high level waste glasses to support stage III sulfate solubility modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, K. M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-03-17

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Management (EM) is sponsoring an international, collaborative project to develop a fundamental model for sulfate solubility in nuclear waste glass. The solubility of sulfate has a significant impact on the achievable waste loading for nuclear waste forms within the DOE complex. These wastes can contain relatively high concentrations of sulfate, which has low solubility in borosilicate glass. This is a significant issue for low-activity waste (LAW) glass and is projected to have a major impact on the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Sulfate solubility has also been a limiting factor for recent high level waste (HLW) sludge processed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The low solubility of sulfate in glass, along with melter and off-gas corrosion constraints, dictate that the waste be blended with lower sulfate concentration waste sources or washed to remove sulfate prior to vitrification. The development of enhanced borosilicate glass compositions with improved sulfate solubility will allow for higher waste loadings and accelerate mission completion.The objective of the current scope being pursued by SHU is to mature the sulfate solubility model to the point where it can be used to guide glass composition development for DWPF and WTP, allowing for enhanced waste loadings and waste throughput at these facilities. A series of targeted glass compositions was selected to resolve data gaps in the model and is identified as Stage III. SHU fabricated these glasses and sent samples to SRNL for chemical composition analysis. SHU will use the resulting data to enhance the sulfate solubility model and resolve any deficiencies. In this report, SRNL provides chemical analyses for the Stage III, simulated HLW glasses fabricated by SHU in support of the sulfate solubility model development.

  8. Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D. [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Rose, Brent S. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wu, John; Noticewala, Sonal [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); McHale, Michael T. [Department of Reproductive Medicine, Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Yashar, Catheryn M. [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Vaida, Florin [Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, University of California San Diego Medical Center, San Diego, California (United States); Mell, Loren K., E-mail: lmell@ucsd.edu [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) = 1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (ω), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.

  9. A tri-stage cluster identification model for accurate analysis of seismic catalogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Nanda

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a tri-stage cluster identification model that is a combination of a simple single iteration distance algorithm and an iterative K-means algorithm. In this study of earthquake seismicity, the model considers event location, time and magnitude information from earthquake catalog data to efficiently classify events as either background or mainshock and aftershock sequences. Tests on a synthetic seismicity catalog demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model in terms of accuracy percentage (94.81% for background and 89.46% for aftershocks. The close agreement between lambda and cumulative plots for the ideal synthetic catalog and that generated by the proposed model also supports the accuracy of the proposed technique. There is flexibility in the model design to allow for proper selection of location and magnitude ranges, depending upon the nature of the mainshocks present in the catalog. The effectiveness of the proposed model also is evaluated by the classification of events in three historic catalogs: California, Japan and Indonesia. As expected, for both synthetic and historic catalog analysis it is observed that the density of events classified as background is almost uniform throughout the region, whereas the density of aftershock events are higher near the mainshocks.

  10. Predictive Modeling of a Two-Stage Gearbox towards Fault Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward J. Diehl

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a systematic approach to the modeling and analysis of a benchmark two-stage gearbox test bed to characterize gear fault signatures when processed with harmonic wavelet transform (HWT analysis. The eventual goal of condition monitoring is to be able to interpret vibration signals from nonstationary machinery in order to identify the type and severity of gear damage. To advance towards this goal, a lumped-parameter model that can be analyzed efficiently is developed which characterizes the gearbox vibratory response at the system level. The model parameters are identified through correlated numerical and experimental investigations. The model fidelity is validated first by spectrum analysis, using constant speed experimental data, and secondly by HWT analysis, using nonstationary experimental data. Model prediction and experimental data are compared for healthy gear operation and a seeded fault gear with a missing tooth. The comparison confirms that both the frequency content and the predicted, relative response magnitudes match with physical measurements. The research demonstrates that the modeling method in combination with the HWT data analysis has the potential for facilitating successful fault detection and diagnosis for gearbox systems.

  11. Closure of the Spent Fuel Repository in Forsmark - Studies of alternative concepts for sealing of ramp, shafts and investigation boreholes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gylling, Bjoern [SKB AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Luterkort, David [SGI, Stockholm (Sweden); Johansson, Roland [Miljoe- och Energikonsult AB, Ekeroe (Sweden)

    2012-12-15

    In March 2011, SKB submitted applications under the Nuclear Activities Act and the Environmental Code for the construction and operation of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark. An important supporting document for the application under the Nuclear Activities Act was the SR-Site safety assessment. As a part of the work with the application and as background material for SR-Site, SKB prepared production reports, including the closure production report. The closure production report presented definitions, requirements and design premises, a reference design and the initial state for repository closure. SR-Site evaluated the reference design and related design premises that were presented in the closure production report. SR-Site thereby concluded that the design premises on which the reference design were based are adequate. Relaxing the requirements would require additional sensitivity analyses focusing on the hydraulic properties of the access, main and transport tunnels. SR-Site further concluded that the reference design could likely be simplified without violating the current design premises. Furthermore, additional simplifications could probably be made if the design premises could be revised. This has been studied in the project 'Closure - concept studies', whose results are presented in this report. SR-Site also evaluated the reference design for investigation boreholes that is presented in the production report. The evaluation showed that the impact of improper borehole seals is very moderate. Further, SR-Site concludes that the current design premises are appropriate but possibly too strict, since even open boreholes seem to have a limited impact on the groundwater flow in the repository. Since it might be difficult to inspect the outcome of the current design of borehole sealing, it could be of interest to assess whether a solution that may result in higher effective permeability of the borehole seals would provide sufficiently

  12. Two-Stage Single-Compartment Models to Evaluate Dissolution in the Lower Intestine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markopoulos, Constantinos; Vertzoni, Maria; Symillides, Mira; Kesisoglou, Filippos; Reppas, Christos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose was to propose two-stage single-compartment models for evaluating dissolution characteristics in distal ileum and ascending colon, under conditions simulating the bioavailability and bioequivalence studies in fasted and fed state by using the mini-paddle and the compendial flow-through apparatus (closed-loop mode). Immediate release products of two highly dosed active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), sulfasalazine and L-870,810, and one mesalamine colon targeting product were used for evaluating their usefulness. Change of medium composition simulating the conditions in distal ileum (SIFileum ) to a medium simulating the conditions in ascending colon in fasted state and in fed state was achieved by adding an appropriate solution in SIFileum . Data with immediate release products suggest that dissolution in lower intestine is substantially different than in upper intestine and is affected by regional pH differences > type/intensity of fluid convection > differences in concentration of other luminal components. Asacol® (400 mg/tab) was more sensitive to type/intensity of fluid convection. In all the cases, data were in line with available human data. Two-stage single-compartment models may be useful for the evaluation of dissolution in lower intestine. The impact of type/intensity of fluid convection and viscosity of media on luminal performance of other APIs and drug products requires further exploration.

  13. Two-stage Hidden Markov Model in Gesture Recognition for Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhan Nguyen-Duc-Thanh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is very rich in mathematical structure and hence can form the theoretical basis for use in a wide range of applications including gesture representation. Most research in this field, however, uses only HMM for recognizing simple gestures, while HMM can definitely be applied for whole gesture meaning recognition. This is very effectively applicable in Human‐Robot Interaction (HRI. In this paper, we introduce an approach for HRI in which not only the human can naturally control the robot by hand gesture, but also the robot can recognize what kind of task it is executing. The main idea behind this method is the 2‐stages Hidden Markov Model. The 1st HMM is to recognize the prime command‐like gestures. Based on the sequence of prime gestures that are recognized from the 1st stage and which represent the whole action, the 2nd HMM plays a role in task recognition. Another contribution of this paper is that we use the output Mixed Gaussian distribution in HMM to improve the recognition rate. In the experiment, we also complete a comparison of the different number of hidden states and mixture components to obtain the optimal one, and compare to other methods to evaluate this performance.

  14. PLASMODIUM PRE-ERYTHROCYTIC STAGES: BIOLOGY, WHOLE PARASITE VACCINES AND TRANSGENIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kota Arun Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria remains one of the world’s worst health problems, which causes 216 million new cases and approximately 655,000 deaths every year WHO World Malaria Report, 2011. Malaria transmission to the mammalian host is initiated through a mosquito bite that delivers sporozoites into the vertebrate host. The injected sporozoites are selectively targeted to liver which is the first obligatory step in infection thus making this stage an attractive target for both drug and vaccine development. Research using rodent models of malaria has greatly facilitated the understanding of several aspects of pre-erythrocytic parasite biology and immunology. However, translation of this knowledge to combat Plasmodium falciparum infections still offers several challenges. We highlight in this review some of the recent advances in the field of Plasmodium sporozoite and liver stage biology and in the generation of whole organism attenuated vaccines. We also comment on the application of transgenic models central to Circumsporozoite Protein (CSP in understanding the mechanism of pre-erythrocytic immunity.

  15. Two-Stage Hidden Markov Model in Gesture Recognition for Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhan Nguyen-Duc-Thanh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is very rich in mathematical structure and hence can form the theoretical basis for use in a wide range of applications including gesture representation. Most research in this field, however, uses only HMM for recognizing simple gestures, while HMM can definitely be applied for whole gesture meaning recognition. This is very effectively applicable in Human-Robot Interaction (HRI. In this paper, we introduce an approach for HRI in which not only the human can naturally control the robot by hand gesture, but also the robot can recognize what kind of task it is executing. The main idea behind this method is the 2-stages Hidden Markov Model. The 1st HMM is to recognize the prime command-like gestures. Based on the sequence of prime gestures that are recognized from the 1st stage and which represent the whole action, the 2nd HMM plays a role in task recognition. Another contribution of this paper is that we use the output Mixed Gaussian distribution in HMM to improve the recognition rate. In the experiment, we also complete a comparison of the different number of hidden states and mixture components to obtain the optimal one, and compare to other methods to evaluate this performance.

  16. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 5E MODEL STAGES TO BUILD STUDENTS’ VOCABULARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Rochman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available There are stages of human to learn something. In early ages, they will learn simplest things to the complicated ones. A learning process of human is started with and introductory and it tries to connect with their prior knowledge to the new one. Children begin to curious about what they want to know and start to make some questions about what they want to know. In the process of finding the answers of their own questions, they will interact with others and try to share the knowledge in this process. The result of this study illustrates that the implementation of the 5E model in teaching vocabulary that can enhance the students’ vocabulary achievement and successfully encourages them to actively and enthusiastically take part in the teaching-learning process of vocabulary through group task. Keywords: implementation, vocabulary, vocabulary course, and 5E model

  17. Performance Testing of the Engineering Model Astro-H 3-stage ADR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirron, Peter J.; Kimball, Mark O.; DiPirro, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    The Japanese Astro-H mission will include the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) instrument provided by NASA/GSFC. The SXS will perform imaging spectroscopy in the soft x-ray band using a 6x6 array of silicon microcalorimeters operated at 50 mK. The detectors are cooled by a 3-stage adiabatic demagnetization refrigerator (ADR), which is configured to use either a 1.3 K superfluid helium tank or a 4.5 K Joule-Thomson cryocooler as a heat sink. At present, the engineering model SXS, including the detectors and ADR, has been performance tested at GSFC and integrated with the EM dewar in Japan. The flight model SXS is currently being fabricated. This paper presents test results of the EM ADR and changes that will be implemented in the flight version.

  18. A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Kitchen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

  19. [Quantitative models between canopy hyperspectrum and its component features at apple tree prosperous fruit stage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Zhao, Geng-xing; Zhu, Xi-cun; Lei, Tong; Dong, Fang

    2010-10-01

    Hyperspectral technique has become the basis of quantitative remote sensing. Hyperspectrum of apple tree canopy at prosperous fruit stage consists of the complex information of fruits, leaves, stocks, soil and reflecting films, which was mostly affected by component features of canopy at this stage. First, the hyperspectrum of 18 sample apple trees with reflecting films was compared with that of 44 trees without reflecting films. It could be seen that the impact of reflecting films on reflectance was obvious, so the sample trees with ground reflecting films should be separated to analyze from those without ground films. Secondly, nine indexes of canopy components were built based on classified digital photos of 44 apple trees without ground films. Thirdly, the correlation between the nine indexes and canopy reflectance including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed. The results showed that the correlation between reflectance and the ratio of fruit to leaf was the best, among which the max coefficient reached 0.815, and the correlation between reflectance and the ratio of leaf was a little better than that between reflectance and the density of fruit. Then models of correlation analysis, linear regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the hyperspectral reflectance and the ratio of fruit to leaf with the softwares of DPS and LIBSVM. It was feasible that all of the four models in 611-680 nm characteristic band are feasible to be used to predict, while the model accuracy of BP neural network and support vector regression was better than one-variable linear regression and multi-variable regression, and the accuracy of support vector regression model was the best. This study will be served as a reliable theoretical reference for the yield estimation of apples based on remote sensing data.

  20. Dynamic modeling of a single-stage downward firing, entrained flow gasifier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasule, J., Turton, R., Bhattacharyya, D., Zitney, S.

    2012-01-01

    The gasifier is the heart of the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), a technology that has emerged as an attractive alternative to conventional coal-fired power plant technology due to its higher efficiency and cleaner environmental performance especially with the option of CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration. Understanding the optimal performance of the gasifier is therefore paramount for the efficient operation of IGCC power plants. Numerous gasifier models of varying complexity have been developed to study the various aspects of gasifier performance. These range from simple one-dimensional (1D) process-type models to rigorous higher order 2-3D models based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Whereas high-fidelity CFD models can accurately predict most key aspects of gasifier performance, they are computationally expensive and typically take hours to days to execute on high-performance computers. Therefore, faster 1D partial differential equation (PDE)-based models are required for use in dynamic simulation studies, control system analysis, and training applications. A number of 1D gasifier models can be found in the literature, but most are steady-state models that have limited application in the practical operation of the gasifier. As a result, 1D PDE-based dynamic models are needed to further study and predict gasifier performance under a wide variety of process conditions and disturbances. In the current study, a 1D transient model of a single-stage downward-fired GE/Texaco-type entrained-flow gasifier has been developed. The model comprises mass, momentum and energy balances for the gas and solid phases. The model considers the initial gasification processes of water evaporation and coal devolatilization. In addition, the key heterogeneous and homogeneous chemical reactions have been modeled. The resulting time-dependent PDE model is solved using the well-known method of lines approach in Aspen Custom Modeler®, whereby the PDEs in the spatial

  1. Investigating mathematical models of immuno-interactions with early-stage cancer under an agent-based modelling perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Many advances in research regarding immuno-interactions with cancer were developed with the help of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. These models, however, are not effectively capable of representing problems involving individual localisation, memory and emerging properties, which are common characteristics of cells and molecules of the immune system. Agent-based modelling and simulation is an alternative paradigm to ODE models that overcomes these limitations. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when compared to ODE modelling and simulation. We seek answers to the following questions: Is it possible to obtain an equivalent agent-based model from the ODE formulation? Do the outcomes differ? Are there any benefits of using one method compared to the other? To answer these questions, we have considered three case studies using established mathematical models of immune interactions with early-stage cancer. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and the simulation results were then compared with those from the ODE models. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent agent-based models (i.e. implementing the same mechanisms); the simulation output of both types of models however might differ depending on the attributes of the system to be modelled. In some cases, additional insight from using agent-based modelling was obtained. Overall, we can confirm that agent-based modelling is a useful addition to the tool set of immunologists, as it has extra features that allow for simulations with characteristics that are closer to the biological phenomena. PMID:23734575

  2. Lab-testing, predicting, and modeling multi-stage activated carbon adsorption of organic micro-pollutants from treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zietzschmann, F; Altmann, J; Hannemann, C; Jekel, M

    2015-10-15

    Multi-stage reuse of powdered activated carbon (PAC) is often applied in practice for a more efficient exploitation of the PAC capacity to remove organic micro-pollutants (OMP). However, the adsorption mechanisms in multi-stage PAC reuse are rarely investigated, as large-scale experiments do not allow for systematic tests. In this study, a laboratory method for the separation of PAC/water suspensions and the subsequent reuse of the PAC and the water was developed. The method was tested on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent in a setup with up to 7 PAC reuse stages. The tests show that the overall OMP removal from WWTP effluent can be increased when reusing PAC. The reason is that a repeated adsorption in multi-stage PAC reuse results in similar equilibrium concentrations as a single-stage adsorption. Thus, a single relationship between solid and liquid phase OMP concentrations appears valid throughout all stages. This also means that the adsorption efficiency of multi-stage PAC reuse setups can be estimated from the data of a single-stage setup. Furthermore, the overall OMP removals in multi-stage setups coincide with the overall UV254 removals, and for each respective OMP one relationship to UV254 removal is valid throughout all stages. The results were modeled by a simple modification of the equivalent background compound model (EBCM) which was also used to simulate the additional OMP removals in multi-stage setups with up to 50 reuse stages. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A two-stage logistic regression-ANN model for the prediction of distress banks: Evidence from 11 emerging countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shu Ling Lin

    2010-01-01

      This paper proposes a new approach of two-stage hybrid model of logistic regression-ANN for the construction of a financial distress warning system for banking industry in emerging market during 1998-2006...

  4. Flexible distributions for triple-goal estimates in two-stage hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paddock, Susan M.; Ridgeway, Greg; Lin, Rongheng; Louis, Thomas A.

    2009-01-01

    Performance evaluations often aim to achieve goals such as obtaining estimates of unit-specific means, ranks, and the distribution of unit-specific parameters. The Bayesian approach provides a powerful way to structure models for achieving these goals. While no single estimate can be optimal for achieving all three inferential goals, the communication and credibility of results will be enhanced by reporting a single estimate that performs well for all three. Triple goal estimates [Shen and Louis, 1998. Triple-goal estimates in two-stage hierarchical models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 60, 455–471] have this performance and are appealing for performance evaluations. Because triple-goal estimates rely more heavily on the entire distribution than do posterior means, they are more sensitive to misspecification of the population distribution and we present various strategies to robustify triple-goal estimates by using nonparametric distributions. We evaluate performance based on the correctness and efficiency of the robustified estimates under several scenarios and compare empirical Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to model the population distribution. We find that when data are quite informative, conclusions are robust to model misspecification. However, with less information in the data, conclusions can be quite sensitive to the choice of population distribution. Generally, use of a nonparametric distribution pays very little in efficiency when a parametric population distribution is valid, but successfully protects against model misspecification. PMID:19603088

  5. Integration of Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models with Adverse Outcome Pathways and Environmental Exposure Models to Screen for Environmental Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Life-stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to include descriptions of several life-stage events such as pregnancy, fetal development, the neonate and child growth. The overall modeling strategy was used for in vitro to in vivo (IVIVE) extrapolat...

  6. Measuring the adoption of consistent use of condoms using the stages of change model. AIDS Community Demonstration Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, D J; Galavotti, C; Fishbein, M; Chan, D K

    1996-01-01

    The stages of behavior change model has been used to understand a variety of health behaviors. Since consistent condom use has been promoted as a risk-reduction behavior for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, an algorithm for staging the adoption of consistent condom use during vaginal sex was empirically developed using three considerations: HIV prevention efficacy, analogy with work on staging other health-related behaviors, and condom use data from groups at high risk for HIV infection. This algorithm suggests that the adoption of consistent condom use among persons at high risk can be meaningfully measured with the model. However, variations in the algorithm details affect both the interpretation of stages and apportionment of persons across stages.

  7. A Two-Stage Process Model of Sensory Discrimination: An Alternative to Drift-Diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Peng; Landy, Michael S

    2016-11-02

    Discrimination of the direction of motion of a noisy stimulus is an example of sensory discrimination under uncertainty. For stimuli that are extended in time, reaction time is quicker for larger signal values (e.g., discrimination of opposite directions of motion compared with neighboring orientations) and larger signal strength (e.g., stimuli with higher contrast or motion coherence, that is, lower noise). The standard model of neural responses (e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex) and reaction time for discrimination is drift-diffusion. This model makes two clear predictions. (1) The effects of signal strength and value on reaction time should interact multiplicatively because the diffusion process depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. (2) If the diffusion process is interrupted, as in a cued-response task, the time to decision after the cue should be independent of the strength of accumulated sensory evidence. In two experiments with human participants, we show that neither prediction holds. A simple alternative model is developed that is consistent with the results. In this estimate-then-decide model, evidence is accumulated until estimation precision reaches a threshold value. Then, a decision is made with duration that depends on the signal-to-noise ratio achieved by the first stage. Sensory decision-making under uncertainty is usually modeled as the slow accumulation of noisy sensory evidence until a threshold amount of evidence supporting one of the possible decision outcomes is reached. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this accumulation process is reflected in neural responses, e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex. We derive two behavioral predictions of this model and show that neither prediction holds. We introduce a simple alternative model in which evidence is accumulated until a sufficiently precise estimate of the stimulus is achieved, and then that estimate is used to guide the discrimination decision. This model is consistent with the

  8. Staging of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with a composite predictive model:A comparative study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    AIM:To evaluate the efficacy of 6 noninvasive liver fibrosis models and to identify the most valuable model for the prediction of liver fibrosis stage in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS:Seventy-eight CHB patients were consecutively enrolled in this study.Liver biopsy was performed and blood serum was obtained at admission.Histological diagnosis was made according to the METAVIR system.Significant fibrosis was defined as stage score ≥ 2,severe fibrosis as stage score ≥ 3.The diagnostic accuracy of ...

  9. Modeling polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon bioaccumulation and metabolism in time-variable early life-stage exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Rooni; McGrath, Joy A; Di Toro, Dominic M

    2008-07-01

    Recent laboratory investigations into the bioaccumulation and toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have focused on low-level, time-variable exposures to early life-stage fish. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon body-burden residues reported in these studies were lower than critical body-burden residues predicted by the target lipid model (TLM). To understand this discrepancy, a time-variable uptake and depuration model of PAH bioaccumulation was developed. Kinetic constants were fit using measured exposure and tissue concentrations. The resulting lipid-water partition coefficients (K(LW)) were uncorrelated with the octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW))--a qualitatively unrealistic finding considering that numerous studies have reported a positive correlation between the two. Because PAHs are known to be metabolized, the comparison of K(LW) with K(OW) suggests that metabolism may be occurring in early life-stage fish. Therefore, the uptake and depuration model was modified to include metabolism while assuming linearity of K(LW) with K(OW). Calculated metabolism rates were positively correlated with K(OW)--a finding qualitatively similar to those of other studies. The present study provides a reasonable explanation for the discrepancy between the TLM predictions and the measured toxic effect levels. Given the time-variable exposure concentrations, the maximum measured body burdens used to relate to toxic effects may be underestimated. In addition, the maximum body burden of parent PAH plus metabolites may be a better measure in relating tissue concentrations to toxic effects. Incorporating these refinements in relating body burdens to toxic effects may result in a better comparison between TLM predictions and measured effect levels.

  10. A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

    2017-02-07

    We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

  11. A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

  12. Geological, isothermal, and isobaric 3-D model construction in early stage of geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputra, M. P.; Suryantini; Catigtig, D.; Regandara, R.; Asnin, S. N.; Pratama, A. B.

    2016-09-01

    Construction of geology, thermal anomaly and pressure distribution of a geothermal system in the early stage of exploration where data is limited is described using a 3-D software, Leapfrog Geothermal. The geological 3-D model was developed from a topographic map (derived from DEM data), geological map and literature studies reported in an early geological survey. The isothermal 3-D model was constructed using reservoir temperature estimation from geothermometry calculated from chemical analyses on surface manifestations, available shallow gradient temperature hole data and the normal gradient temperature (3°C/100m) for a nonthermal area. The isobaric 3-D model was built using hydrostatic pressure where the hydrostatic pressure is determined by the product of the fluid density, acceleration due to gravity, and depth. Fluid density is given by saturated liquid density as a function of temperature. There are some constraints on the modelling result such as (1) within the predicted reservoir, the geothermal gradient is not constant but continues to increase, thus, creating an anomalously high temperature at depth, and (2) the lithology model is made by interpolating and extrapolating cross-sections whereas usually only two to three geology sections were available for this study. Hence, the modeller must understand the geology. An additional cross section was developed by the modeller which may not be as suitable as the geologist constructed sections. The results of this study can be combined with geophysical data such as gravity, geomagnetic, micro-tremor and resistivity data. The combination of geological, geochemical, isothermal, isobaric and geophysical data could be used in (1) estimating the geometry and size of the geothermal reservoir, (2) predicting the depth of top reservoir, and (3) creating well prognosis for exploration and production wells.

  13. Osteopontin expression and localization of Ca++ deposits in early stages of osteoarthritis in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Calleja, América; Velasquillo, Cristina; Vega-López, Marco; Arellano-Jiménez, M Josefina; Tsutsumi-Fujiyoshi, Victor K; Mondragón-Flores, Ricardo; Kouri-Flores, Juan B

    2014-07-01

    Calcium deposits have been related to articular cartilage (AC) degeneration and have been observed in late stages of osteoarthritis (OA). However, the role of those deposits, whether they induce the OA pathogenesis or they appear as a consequence of such process, is still unknown. In this work, we present the kinetics of expression and tissue localisation of osteopontin (OPN), a mineralisation biomarker, and calcium deposits in samples from (normal, sham) and osteoarthritic cartilage (in a rat model). Immunohistochemical and Western blot assays for OPN, as well as Alizarin red staining for calcium deposits were performed; superficial, middle, and deep zones of AC were analysed. An increased expression of OPN and calcium deposits was found in the osteoarthritic cartilage compared with that of control groups, particularly in the superficial zone of AC in early stages of OA. In addition, the expression and localisation of OPN and calcium deposits during the OA pathogenesis suggest that the pathological AC mineralisation starts in the superficial zone during OA pathogenesis.

  14. Planning an Agricultural Water Resources Management System: A Two-Stage Stochastic Fractional Programming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Cui

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in many regions and countries throughout the world. In this study, a two-stage stochastic fractional programming (TSFP method is developed for planning an agricultural water resources management system under uncertainty. TSFP can provide an effective linkage between conflicting economic benefits and the associated penalties; it can also balance conflicting objectives and maximize the system marginal benefit with per unit of input under uncertainty. The developed TSFP method is applied to a real case of agricultural water resources management of the Zhangweinan River Basin China, which is one of the main food and cotton producing regions in north China and faces serious water shortage. The results demonstrate that the TSFP model is advantageous in balancing conflicting objectives and reflecting complicated relationships among multiple system factors. Results also indicate that, under the optimized irrigation target, the optimized water allocation rate of Minyou Channel and Zhangnan Channel are 57.3% and 42.7%, respectively, which adapts the changes in the actual agricultural water resources management problem. Compared with the inexact two-stage water management (ITSP method, TSFP could more effectively address the sustainable water management problem, provide more information regarding tradeoffs between multiple input factors and system benefits, and help the water managers maintain sustainable water resources development of the Zhangweinan River Basin.

  15. Transcriptome profiling of the cysticercus stage of the laboratory model Taenia crassiceps, strain ORF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Montoya, Gisela M; Mesa-Arango, Jairo A; Isaza-Agudelo, Juan P; Agudelo-Lopez, Sonia P; Cabarcas, Felipe; Barrera, Luis F; Alzate, Juan F

    2016-02-01

    Neurocysticercosis (NC) is a serious public health problem mainly in developing countries. NC caused by the cysticercus stage from cestode Taenia solium is considered by the WHO and ITFDE as a potentially eradicable disease. Definitive diagnosis of NC is challenging because of the unspecific clinical manifestations such as the non-definitive evidence presented by neuroimaging (in most cases) and the lack of definitive serological test. Taenia crassiceps (ORF strain) is a cestode closely related to T. solium and it has frequently been used as a source of antigens for immunodiagnostics. A murine model to study host immune response to infection has also been established by using T. crassiceps. Despite the extensive use of T. crassiceps for research, molecular information for this cestode is scarce in public databases. With the aim of providing more extensive information on T. crassiceps biology, an RNA-seq experiment and subsequent bioinformatic transcriptome processing of this cestode parasite mRNA in its cysticercus stage were carried out. A total of 227,082 read/ESTs were sequenced using the 454-GS FLX Titanium technology and assembled into 10,787 contigs. This transcriptome dataset represents new and valuable molecular information of the cestode T. crassiceps (ORF). This information will substantially improve public information and will help to achieve a better understanding of the biology of T. crassiceps and to identify target proteins for serodiagnosis and vaccination.

  16. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  17. Complex Dynamics of a Continuous Bertrand Duopoly Game Model with Two-Stage Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhai Ma

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a continuous Bertrand duopoly game model with two-stage delay. Our aim is to investigate the influence of delay and weight on the complex dynamic characteristics of the system. We obtain the bifurcation point of the system respect to delay parameter by calculating. In addition, the dynamic properties of the system are simulated by power spectrum, attractor, bifurcation diagram, the largest Lyapunov exponent, 3D surface chart, 4D Cubic Chart, 2D parameter bifurcation diagram, and 3D parameter bifurcation diagram. The results show that the stability of the system depends on the delay and weight, in order to maintain stability of price and ensure the firm profit, the firms must control the parameters in the reasonable region. Otherwise, the system will lose stability, and even into chaos, which will cause fluctuations in prices, the firms cannot be profitable. Finally, the chaos control of the system is carried out by a control strategy of the state variables’ feedback and parameter variation, which effectively avoid the damage of chaos to the economic system. Therefore, the results of this study have an important practical significance to make decisions with multi-stage delay for oligopoly firms.

  18. Utility of Modeling End-Stage Liver Disease in Children with Chronic Liver Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Kianifar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Chronic liver diseases consist of wide spectrum disorders that may be complicated by cirrhosis and therefore need to transplantation. The pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD score and model of end-stage liver disease (MELD score has been used as predictors of mortality chronic liver diseases listed for liver transplantation. The aim of this study is evaluation of relation between PELDMELD score and evidence of cirrhosis in children with choronic liver disease.   Materials and Method: This cross-sectional study conducted on 106 patients of chronic liver disease referred to Ghaem Haspital, Mashhad University of Medical Science, Iran during 24 months period (2010-2013. PELD and MELD score were calculated for all patients. Clincal and patholoogical findings of cirrhosis were recorded.   Results: Mean age of patients was 68/3 ± 41.8 months. Mean PELDMELD score was -1/59± 9/64. There was significant correlation between PELDMELD score and clinical icter, spelenomegaly, evidence of hepatopulminary syndrome, esophageal varices, evidence of cirrhosis in tissue specimences.   Conclusion: PELDMELD score appear to be benefit for detection of cirrhotic children among paients with choronic liver disease.

  19. Optimal models with maximizing probability of first achieving target value in the preceding stages

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林元烈; 伍从斌; 康波大

    2003-01-01

    Decision makers often face the need of performance guarantee with some sufficiently high proba-bility. Such problems can be modelled using a discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a probabilitycriterion for the first achieving target value. The objective is to find a policy that maximizes the probabilityof the total discounted reward exceeding a target value in the preceding stages. We show that our formula-tion cannot be described by former models with standard criteria. We provide the properties of the objectivefunctions, optimal value functions and optimal policies. An algorithm for computing the optimal policies forthe finite horizon case is given. In this stochastic stopping model, we prove that there exists an optimal deter-ministic and stationary policy and the optimality equation has a unique solution. Using perturbation analysis,we approximate general models and prove the existence of ε-optimal policy for finite state space. We give anexample for the reliability of the satellite systems using the above theory. Finally, we extend these results tomore general cases.

  20. Numerical framework to model temporally resolved multi-stage dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, M N; Bhasin, S; Szafran, A T; Mancini, M A; Jasuja, R

    2012-11-01

    Numerical modeling of steroid hormone signaling presents an exciting challenge involving spatiotemporal coordination of multiple events. Ligand binding in cytoplasm triggers dissociation and/or association of coregulators which subsequently regulate DNA binding and transcriptional activity in nucleus. In order to develop a comprehensive multi-stage model, it is imperative to follow not only the transcriptional outcomes but also the intermediate protein complexes. Accordingly, we developed a software toolkit for simulating complex biochemical pathways as a set of non-linear differential equations in LabVIEW (Laboratory Virtual Instrumentation and Engineering Workbench, National Instruments, Austin, TX) environment. The toolkit is visual, highly modular, loosely coupled with the rest of LabVIEW, scalable and extensible. The toolkit can be used to develop and validate biochemical models and estimate model parameters from existing experimental data. We illustrate the application of the toolkit for simulation of steroid hormone response in cells, and demonstrate how the toolkit can be employed for other biological and chemical systems as well. The software module presented here can be used stand-alone as well as built into data collection and analysis applications.

  1. An elliptical-pore model for late-stage planar viscous sintering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowdy, Darren G.

    2004-02-01

    A simple ‘elliptical-pore model’ of the shrinkage of compressible pores in late-stage planar viscous sintering is proposed. The model is in the spirit of matched asymptotics and relies on splitting the flow into an ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ problem. The inner problem in the vicinity of any given pore involves solving for its free-surface evolution exactly using complex-variable methods. The outer flow due to all other pores is assumed to be given by an assembly of point sinks/sources. As a test of the model, the evolution of a singly infinite periodic row of compressible pores is considered in detail. The effectiveness of the simple model is tested by comparison with a full numerical simulation. A novel boundary integral method based on Cauchy potentials and conformal mapping is used. In the case of pores with constant pressure, it is found that pores shrink faster than if in isolation. Compressible pores obeying the ideal gas law are also studied and are found to tend to a quasi-steady non-circular state. A higher-order model is also presented and compared with numerical simulations of the viscous sintering of a doubly periodic array of pores in Stokes flow.

  2. Autobiography and Anorexia: A Qualitative Alternative to Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Félix Díaz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we propose a qualitative approach to the study of the ways in which people face good and poor health issues. During the last 30 years, Prochaska and DiClemente's "trans-theoretical model" (1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1992 has gained relevance as a model to assess disposition for change in patients. We revise the features of the model and its common techniques to assess stages of change, underlining its methodological and conceptual problems. Particularly, we discuss the paradoxes set by "pre-contemplation" as a concept; the exogenous definition of human problems in terms of institutional and clinical criteria; and the ambiguity of the model, where the purpose of accompanying and orienting the patient contrasts with the imposition of problem definitions and solution strategies. We propose a narrative analysis of autobiographies of patients as an alternative that recasts their own notions of "change," "problem," and "vital trajectory." We illustrate this possibility with the analysis of an autobiographic interview with a woman who has a history of anorexia. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1203209

  3. A cooperation model based on CVaR measure for a two-stage supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xinsheng; Meng, Zhiqing; Shen, Rui

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a cooperation model (CM) for the two-stage supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer. In this model, it is supposed that the objective of the manufacturer is to maximise his/her profit while the objective of the retailer is to minimise his/her CVaR while controlling the risk originating from fluctuation in market demand. In reality, the manufacturer and the retailer would like to choose their own decisions as to wholesale price and order quantity to optimise their own objectives, resulting the fact that the expected decision of the manufacturer and that of the retailer may conflict with each other. Then, to achieve cooperation, the manufacturer and the retailer both need to give some concessions. The proposed model aims to coordinate the decisions of the manufacturer and the retailer, and balance the concessions of the two in their cooperation. We introduce an s* - optimal equilibrium solution in this model, which can decide the minimum concession that the manufacturer and the retailer need to give for their cooperation, and prove that the s* - optimal equilibrium solution can be obtained by solving a goal programming problem. Further, the case of different concessions made by the manufacturer and the retailer is also discussed. Numerical results show that the CM is efficient in dealing with the cooperations between the supplier and the retailer.

  4. A Risk-Based Interval Two-Stage Programming Model for Agricultural System Management under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonpoint source (NPS pollution caused by agricultural activities is main reason that water quality in watershed becomes worse, even leading to deterioration. Moreover, pollution control is accompanied with revenue’s fall for agricultural system. How to design and generate a cost-effective and environmentally friendly agricultural production pattern is a critical issue for local managers. In this study, a risk-based interval two-stage programming model (RBITSP was developed. Compared to general ITSP model, significant contribution made by RBITSP model was that it emphasized importance of financial risk under various probabilistic levels, rather than only being concentrated on expected economic benefit, where risk is expressed as the probability of not meeting target profit under each individual scenario realization. This way effectively avoided solutions’ inaccuracy caused by traditional expected objective function and generated a variety of solutions through adjusting weight coefficients, which reflected trade-off between system economy and reliability. A case study of agricultural production management with the Tai Lake watershed was used to demonstrate superiority of proposed model. Obtained results could be a base for designing land-structure adjustment patterns and farmland retirement schemes and realizing balance of system benefit, system-failure risk, and water-body protection.

  5. Risk model in stage IB1-IIB cervical cancer with positive node after radical hysterectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Z

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Zhilan Chen,1,2,* Kecheng Huang,1,* Zhiyong Lu,1,3 Song Deng,1,4 Jiaqiang Xiong,1 Jia Huang,1 Xiong Li,5 Fangxu Tang,1 Zhihao Wang,6 Haiying Sun,1 Lin Wang,1 Shasha Zhou,1 Xiaoli Wang,1 Yao Jia,1 Ting Hu,1 Juan Gui,7 Dongyi Wan,1 Ding Ma,1 Shuang Li,1 Shixuan Wang11Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Techonology, Wuhan, 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhan General Hospital of Guangzhou Military Command, Wuhan, 3Hubei Key Laboratory of Embryonic Stem Cell Research, Tai-He Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, Hubei, 4Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hospital of Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi, Hubei, 5Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhan Central Hospital, Wuhan, 6Department of Pathology and Pathophysiology, Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education of China for Neurological Disorders, Huazhong University of Science and Techonology, Wuhan, 7Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital, Wuhan University, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workAbstract: The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors in patients with surgically treated node-positive IB1-IIB cervical cancer and to establish a risk model for disease-free survival (DFS and overall survival (OS. A total of 170 patients who underwent radical hysterectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy as primary treatment for node-positive International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage IB1-IIB cervical cancer from January 2002 to December 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. Five published risk models were evaluated in this population. The variables, including common iliac lymph node metastasis and parametrial invasion, were independent predictors of outcome in a multivariate analysis using a Cox regression model. Three distinct prognostic groups (low, intermediate, and high risk

  6. Numerical 3D Model of Viscous Turbulent Flow in One Stage Gas Turbine and Its Experimental Validation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu.V. STARODUBTSEV; I.G. GOGOLEV; V.G. SOLODOV

    2005-01-01

    @@ The paper describes 3D numerical Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model and approximate sector approach for viscous turbulent flow through flow path of one stage axial supercharge gas turbine of marine diesel engine. Computational data are tested by comparison with experimental data. The back step flow path opening and tip clearance jet are taken into account.This approach could be applied for variety of turbine theory and design tasks: for offer optimal design in order to minimize kinetic energy stage losses; for solution of partial supply problem; for analysis of flow pattern in near extraction stages; for estimation of rotational frequency variable forces on blades; for sector vane adjustment (with thin leading edges mainly), for direct flow modeling in the turbine etc. The development of this work could be seen in the direction o