WorldWideScience

Sample records for modelling birth-order effects

  1. Quantifying and modeling birth order effects in autism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tychele Turner

    Full Text Available Autism is a complex genetic disorder with multiple etiologies whose molecular genetic basis is not fully understood. Although a number of rare mutations and dosage abnormalities are specific to autism, these explain no more than 10% of all cases. The high heritability of autism and low recurrence risk suggests multifactorial inheritance from numerous loci but other factors also intervene to modulate risk. In this study, we examine the effect of birth rank on disease risk which is not expected for purely hereditary genetic models. We analyzed the data from three publicly available autism family collections in the USA for potential birth order effects and studied the statistical properties of three tests to show that adequate power to detect these effects exist. We detect statistically significant, yet varying, patterns of birth order effects across these collections. In multiplex families, we identify V-shaped effects where middle births are at high risk; in simplex families, we demonstrate linear effects where risk increases with each additional birth. Moreover, the birth order effect is gender-dependent in the simplex collection. It is currently unknown whether these patterns arise from ascertainment biases or biological factors. Nevertheless, further investigation of parental age-dependent risks yields patterns similar to those observed and could potentially explain part of the increased risk. A search for genes considering these patterns is likely to increase statistical power and uncover novel molecular etiologies.

  2. Ordered delinquency: the "effects" of birth order on delinquency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cundiff, Patrick R

    2013-08-01

    Juvenile delinquency has long been associated with birth order in popular culture. While images of the middle child acting out for attention or the rebellious youngest child readily spring to mind, little research has attempted to explain why. Drawing from Adlerian birth order theory and Sulloway's born-to-rebel hypothesis, I examine the relationship between birth order and a variety of delinquent outcomes during adolescence. Following some recent research on birth order and intelligence, I use new methods that allow for the examination of between-individual and within-family differences to better address the potential spurious relationship. My findings suggest that contrary to popular belief, the relationship between birth order and delinquency is spurious. Specifically, I find that birth order effects on delinquency are spurious and largely products of the analytic methods used in previous tests of the relationship. The implications of this finding are discussed.

  3. Examining the effects of birth order on personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohrer, Julia M; Egloff, Boris; Schmukle, Stefan C

    2015-11-17

    This study examined the long-standing question of whether a person's position among siblings has a lasting impact on that person's life course. Empirical research on the relation between birth order and intelligence has convincingly documented that performances on psychometric intelligence tests decline slightly from firstborns to later-borns. By contrast, the search for birth-order effects on personality has not yet resulted in conclusive findings. We used data from three large national panels from the United States (n = 5,240), Great Britain (n = 4,489), and Germany (n = 10,457) to resolve this open research question. This database allowed us to identify even very small effects of birth order on personality with sufficiently high statistical power and to investigate whether effects emerge across different samples. We furthermore used two different analytical strategies by comparing siblings with different birth-order positions (i) within the same family (within-family design) and (ii) between different families (between-family design). In our analyses, we confirmed the expected birth-order effect on intelligence. We also observed a significant decline of a 10th of a SD in self-reported intellect with increasing birth-order position, and this effect persisted after controlling for objectively measured intelligence. Most important, however, we consistently found no birth-order effects on extraversion, emotional stability, agreeableness, conscientiousness, or imagination. On the basis of the high statistical power and the consistent results across samples and analytical designs, we must conclude that birth order does not have a lasting effect on broad personality traits outside of the intellectual domain.

  4. Birth Order Matters: The Effect of Family Size and Birth Order on Educational Attainment

    OpenAIRE

    Booth, Alison L; Kee, Hiau Joo

    2006-01-01

    We use unique retrospective family background data from the 2003 British Household Panel Survey to explore the degree to which family size and birth order affect a child's subsequent educational attainment. Theory suggests a trade off between child quantity and 'quality'. Family size might adversely affect the production of child quality within a family. A number of arguments also suggest that siblings are unlikely to receive equal shares of the resources devoted by parents to their children'...

  5. The Effect of Birth Order on Roommate Compatibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, John H.; Williams, Ondre J.

    1977-01-01

    A group of students were matched on the basis of compatible birth order; another was matched on the basis of conflicting birth order. After a month's experience in a residence hall their compatibility was examined. Students with conflicting birth order were more compatible than those with the same birth order. (Author)

  6. Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohrer, Julia M; Egloff, Boris; Schmukle, Stefan C

    2017-12-01

    The idea that birth-order position has a lasting impact on personality has been discussed for the past 100 years. Recent large-scale studies have indicated that birth-order effects on the Big Five personality traits are negligible. In the current study, we examined a variety of more narrow personality traits in a large representative sample ( n = 6,500-10,500 in between-family analyses; n = 900-1,200 in within-family analyses). We used specification-curve analysis to assess evidence for birth-order effects across a range of models implementing defensible yet arbitrary analytical decisions (e.g., whether to control for age effects or to exclude participants on the basis of sibling spacing). Although specification-curve analysis clearly confirmed the previously reported birth-order effect on intellect, we found no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation. The lack of meaningful birth-order effects on self-reports of personality was not limited to broad traits but also held for more narrowly defined characteristics.

  7. Effect modification by parental education on the associations of birth order and gender with learning achievement in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C-C J; Wang, W-L; Sung, Y-T; Wang, Y-C; Su, S-Y; Li, C-Y

    2013-11-01

    A child's gender and ordinal position within a family have varied implications on his or her personality and cognitive development. However, little is known about whether or not parental educational level may moderate the effects of birth order and gender. Basic Competence Test (BCT) scores of 290,588 young adolescents aged 15-16 years in Taiwan were analysed. Parental educational level was calculated as the highest educational attainment of the subjects' parents. The multiple linear regression model was used to assess the modification effects of parental educational levels on the associations of interest. After controlling for covariates, we noted a clear inverse relationship between birth order and BCT scores in Mandarin, Mathematics and Science. Additionally, boys had significantly lower mean scores in Mandarin, but had significantly higher mean scores in both Mathematics and Science. We also found the significant interactive effects of birth order, gender and parental educational attainment on BCT scores, in which the birth order and gender effects were more evident in higher-educated families than in lower-educated ones. This large cohort study confirmed that both birth order and gender may pose independent influences on BCT scores; moreover, such influences are significantly modified by parental educational attainment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Effects of Sex, Social Desirability, and Birth Order on the Defense Mechanisms Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Gary E.

    1978-01-01

    Investigated effects of sex difference, social desirability instructions, and birth order of respondents on defense mechanisms inventory (DMI). Sex difference was found in projection only. Social desirability effects were found in turning-against-others, projection, principalization, and reversal. Thus, an interpretive caution is in order…

  9. Direct and Indirect Effects of Birth Order on Personality and Identity: Support for the Null Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkel, Curtis S.; Harbke, Colin R.; Papini, Dennis R.

    2009-01-01

    The authors proposed that birth order affects psychosocial outcomes through differential investment from parent to child and differences in the degree of identification from child to parent. The authors conducted this study to test these 2 models. Despite the use of statistical and methodological procedures to increase sensitivity and reduce…

  10. The Effect of Birth Order and Sex on Perceptions of the Sibling Relationship among College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Volkom, Michele; Beaudoin, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    The current study examined demographic factors (e.g., parental marital status) as well as sex and birth order effects on emerging adults' views of their sibling relationships. One hundred sixty-seven participants completed a demographic and sibling relationship questionnaire designed for the purposes of this study. Factors of the sibling…

  11. Kin and birth order effects on male child mortality: three East Asian populations, 1716-1945.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Hao; Manfredini, Matteo; Kurosu, Satomi; Yang, Wenshan; Lee, James Z

    2017-03-01

    Human child survival depends on adult investment, typically from parents. However, in spite of recent research advances on kin influence and birth order effects on human infant and child mortality, studies that directly examine the interaction of kin context and birth order on sibling differences in child mortality are still rare. Our study supplements this literature with new findings from large-scale individual-level panel data for three East Asian historical populations from northeast China (1789-1909), northeast Japan (1716-1870), and north Taiwan (1906-1945), where preference for sons and first-borns is common. We examine and compare male child mortality risks by presence/absence of co-resident parents, grandparents, and other kin, as well as their interaction effects with birth order. We apply discrete-time event-history analysis on over 172,000 observations of 69,125 boys aged 1-9 years old. We find that in all three populations, while the presence of parents is important for child survival, it is more beneficial to first/early-borns than to later-borns. Effects of other co-resident kin are however null or inconsistent between populations. Our findings underscore the importance of birth order in understanding how differential parental investment may produce child survival differentials between siblings.

  12. Birth Order and Child Health

    OpenAIRE

    Lundberg, Evelina; Svaleryd, Helena

    2017-01-01

    Previous research has established that birth order affects outcomes such as educational achievements, IQ and earnings. The mechanisms behind these effects are, however, still largely unknown. In this paper, we examine birth-order effects on health, and whether health at young age could be a transmission channel for birth-order effects observed later in life. We find no support for the birth-order effect having a biological origin; rather firstborns have worse health at birth. This disadvantag...

  13. Effects of gender, birth order, and other correlates on childhood mortality in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, M K; Hao, H; Wang, F

    1995-01-01

    Using data from the 1988 Two-Per-Thousand Survey of Fertility and Birth Control, this paper examines the effects of gender, birth order, and other correlates of childhood mortality in China. Controlling for family-level factors, childhood mortality is found to be associated with the child's gender and birth order. Among firstborn children the difference between male and female childhood mortality is not statistically significant, but among others, female children between ages 1 and 5 experience higher mortality than male children. Childhood mortality is slightly higher for children who have older brothers only than for those who have older sisters only, and it is highest for those who have both older brothers and sisters. Other factors affecting childhood mortality in China include mortality of older siblings, birth interval, urban/rural residence, mother's level of education, and mother's occupation. All interactive effects between gender and family-level characteristics are found to be statistically insignificant.

  14. On the Mathematics of Fraternal Birth Order Effect and the Genetics of Homosexuality

    OpenAIRE

    Khovanova, Tanya

    2017-01-01

    Mathematicians have always been attracted to the field of genetics. I am especially interested in the mathematical aspects of research on homosexuality. Certain studies show that male homosexuality may have a genetic component that is correlated with female fertility. Other studies show the existence of the fraternal birth order effect, that is the correlation of homosexuality with the number of older brothers. This paper is devoted to the mathematical aspects of how these two phenomena are i...

  15. Appraising Birth Order in Career Assessment: Linkages to Holland's and Super's Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Frederick T. L.; Hartung, Paul J.; Goh, David; Gaylor, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Study 1 (n=159) found significant differences in vocational personality types, interests, and values depending on birth order. Study 2 (n=119) found significant differences in occupational interests by birth order. Both results support Alfred Adler's theory that birth order determines aspects of vocational behavior. (Contains 33 references.) (SK)

  16. The Effects of Family Size, Birth Order, Sibling Separation and Crowding on the Academic Achievement of Boys and Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuttall, Ena Vazquez; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Family constellation variables such as family size, birth order, spacing of children, and crowding were significantly associated with academic achievement when IQ was controlled. The effects of family constellation variables were found to be sex specific. (RC)

  17. The Effects of Birth Order on Personality Traits and Feelings of Academic Sibling Rivalry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, Julia; Reddy, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The influence of birth order on personality and sibling rivalry is controversial; little research has been conducted into academic sibling rivalry, and none into the connection with personality traits. This study considers the interaction of all three factors. Firstborns (N=22) and lastborns (N=24) completed online personality tests and an…

  18. Gender Differences in Intrahousehold Schooling Outcomes: The Role of Sibling Characteristics and Birth-Order Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammohan, Anu; Dancer, Diane

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we examine the influence of gender, sibling characteristics and birth order on the schooling attainment of school-age Egyptian children. We use multivariate analysis to simultaneously examine three different schooling outcomes of a child having "no schooling", "less than the desired level of schooling", and an…

  19. Intergenerational Correlations in Educational Attainment: Birth Order and Family Size Effects Using Canadian Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Anindya; Clemente, Anthony

    2010-01-01

    We exploit the 1986, 1994, and 2001 waves of the Canadian general social surveys in order to estimate intergenerational correlations in education. The use of these specific data is important because of available information on the final educational attainment of survey respondents and both parents, as well as family size and birth order. OLS…

  20. Born to learn or born to win? Birth order effects on achievement goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carette, Bernd; Anseel, Frederik; Van Yperen, Nico W.

    2011-01-01

    Given the widespread use and well-known consequences of achievement goals in different competence-relevant situations, it is important to gain a thorough understanding of how these differences in goal pursuit are formed. Using different analytic approaches, we show that birth order lies at the heart

  1. The effects of birth order and birth interval on the phenotypic expression of autism spectrum disorder.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loren A Martin

    Full Text Available A rise in the prevalence of diagnosed cases of autism spectrum disorder (ASD has been reported in several studies in recent years. While this rise in ASD prevalence is at least partially related to increased awareness and broadened diagnostic criteria, the role of environmental factors cannot be ruled out, especially considering that the cause of most cases of ASD remains unknown. The study of families with multiple affected children can provide clues about ASD etiology. While the majority of research on ASD multiplex families has focused on identifying genetic anomalies that may underlie the disorder, the study of symptom severity across ASD birth order may provide evidence for environmental factors in ASD. We compared social and cognitive measures of behavior between over 300 first and second affected siblings within multiplex autism families obtained from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange dataset. Measures included nonverbal IQ assessed with the Ravens Colored Progressive Matrices, verbal IQ assessed with the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, and autism severity assessed with the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS, an instrument established as a quantitative measure of autism. The results indicated that females were more severely impacted by ASD than males, especially first affected siblings. When first and second affected siblings were compared, significant declines in nonverbal and verbal IQ scores were observed. In addition, SRS results demonstrated a significant increase in autism severity between first and second affected siblings consistent with an overall decline in function as indicated by the IQ data. These results remained significant after controlling for the age and sex of the siblings. Surprisingly, the SRS scores were found to only be significant when the age difference between siblings was less than 2 years. These results suggest that some cases of ASD are influenced by a dosage effect involving unknown epigenetic

  2. The Effect of Birth Order on Neonatal Morbidity and Mortality in Very Preterm Twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei-Dan, Elad; Shah, Jyotsna; Lee, Shoo; Shah, Prakesh S; Murphy, Kellie E

    2017-07-01

    Objective  This retrospective cohort study examined the effect of birth order on neonatal morbidity and mortality in very preterm twins. Study Design  Using 2005 to 2012 data from the Canadian Neonatal Network, very preterm twins born between 24 0/7 and 32 6/7 weeks of gestation were included. Odds of morbidity and mortality of second-born cotwins compared with first-born cotwins were examined by matched-pair analysis. Outcomes were neonatal death, severe brain injury (intraventricular hemorrhage grade 3 or 4 or persistent periventricular echogenicity), bronchopulmonary dysplasia, severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (> stage 2), necrotizing enterocolitis (≥ stage 2), and respiratory distress syndrome (RDS). Multivariable analysis was performed adjusting for confounders. Result  There were 6,636 twins (3,318 pairs) included with a mean gestational age (GA) of 28.9 weeks. A higher rate of small for GA occurred in second-born twins (10 vs. 6%). Mortality was significantly lower for second-born twins (4.3 vs. 5.3%; adjusted odds ratio: 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.95). RDS (66 vs. 60%; adjusted odds ratio: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.29-1.52) and severe retinopathy (9 vs. 7%; adjusted odds ratio: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.07-2.01) were significantly higher in second-born twins. Conclusion  Thus, while second-born twins had reduced odds of mortality, they also had increased odds of RDS and ROP. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  3. The More the Merrier? The Effect of Family Size and Birth Order on Children's Education. CEE DP 50

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul; Salvanes, Kjell

    2005-01-01

    There is an extensive theoretical literature that postulates a trade off between child quantity and quality within a family. However, there is little causal evidence that speaks to this theory. Using a rich dataset on the entire population of Norway over an extended period of time, we examine the effects of family size and birth order on the…

  4. Effects of birth order and maternal age on breast cancer risk: modification by whether women had been breast-fed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Hazel B; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Sprague, Brian L; Hampton, John M; Titus-Ernstoff, Linda; Newcomb, Polly A

    2008-05-01

    Early life risk factors for breast cancer have been investigated in relation to hormonal, nutritional, infectious, and genetic hypotheses. Recent studies have also considered potential health effects associated with exposure to environmental contaminants in breastmilk. We analyzed data from a population-based case-control study of women living in Wisconsin. Cases (n = 2016) had an incident diagnosis of invasive breast cancer in 2002-2006 reported to the statewide tumor registry. Controls (n = 1960) of similar ages were randomly selected from driver's license lists. Risk-factor information was collected during structured telephone interviews. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from multivariable logistic regression. In multivariable models, maternal age and birth order were not associated with breast cancer risk in the full study population. The odds ratio for breast cancer risk associated with having been breast-fed in infancy was 0.83 (95% CI = 0.72-0.96). In analyses restricted to breast-fed women, maternal age associations with breast cancer were null (P = 0.2). Increasing maternal age was negatively associated with breast cancer risk among women who were not breast-fed; the odds ratio for breast cancer associated with each 5-year increase in maternal age was 0.90 (0.82-1.00). Higher birth order was inversely associated with breast cancer risk among breast-fed women (for women with 3 or more older siblings compared with first-born women, OR = 0.58 [CI = 0.39-0.86]) but not among nonbreast-fed women (1.13 [0.81-1.57]). These findings suggest that early life risk factor associations for breast cancer may differ according to breast-feeding status in infancy.

  5. Effect of sibling number in the household and birth order on prevalence of Helicobacter pylori: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Alexander C; Forman, David; Bailey, Alastair G; Goodman, Karen J; Axon, Anthony T R; Moayyedi, Paul

    2007-12-01

    Infection with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is acquired mainly in childhood, with studies demonstrating this is related to living conditions. Effects of sibling number and birth order on prevalence of infection have not been extensively studied. The authors performed a cross-sectional survey of adults, aged between 50 and 59 years, previously involved in a community-screening programme for H. pylori in Leeds and Bradford, UK. Prevalence of H. pylori was assessed at baseline with urea breath test. All individuals who were alive, and could be traced, were contacted by postal questionnaire in 2003 obtaining information on number of siblings and birth order. Data concerning childhood socioeconomic conditions were stored on file from the original study. 3928 (47%) of 8407 original participants provided data. Prevalence of infection increased according to sibling number (20% in those with none vs 63% with eight or more). Controlling for childhood socioeconomic conditions and birth order using multivariate logistic regression, infection odds were substantially increased with three siblings compared with none [odds ratio (OR) 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-2.15], and a gradient of effect continued up to eight or more siblings (OR 5.70; 95% CI 2.92-11.14). Odds of infection also increased substantially with birth order, but the positive gradient disappeared on adjustment for sibling number and childhood socioeconomic conditions. : In this cross section of UK adults, aged 50-59 years, sibling number in the household, but not birth order, was independently associated with prevalence of H. pylori infection.

  6. Birth order and human capital development: evidence from Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, M.; Plug, E.; Rosero, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we examine the effect of birth order on human capital development in Ecuador. Using family fixed effects models we find positive and persistent birth order effects; earlier-born children stay behind in their human capital development from infancy to adolescence. Turning to potential

  7. Birth order and human capital development: evidence from Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, M.; Plug, E.; Rosero, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we examine the effect of birth order on human capital development in Ecuador using a large national database together with self-collected survey data. Using family fixed effects models we find significant positive birth order effects; earlier born children stay behind in their human

  8. Narcissism and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, W E; Sobelman, S

    1996-04-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to clarify the relationship between birth-order position and the development of narcissism, while refining research and theory. The relationship between birth-order status and narcissism was examined with a sample of 79 undergraduate students (55 women and 24 men). These subjects were placed in one of the four following birth-order categories of firstborn, second-born, last-born, and only children. These categories were chosen given their significance in Adlerian theory. Each subject completed the Narcissistic Personality Inventory and a demographic inventory. Based on psychodynamic theory, it was hypothesized that firstborn children were expected to score highest, but statistical significance was not found for an association between narcissism and birth order. Further research is urged to investigate personality theory as it relates to parenting style and birth order.

  9. Birth order and health of newborns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brenøe, Anne Ardila; Molitor, Ramona

    2017-01-01

    We examine birth order differences in health of newborns and follow the children throughout childhood using high-quality administrative data on individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2010. Family fixed effects models show a positive and robust effect of birth order on health at birth......; firstborn children are less healthy at birth. During earlier pregnancies, women are more likely to smoke, receive more prenatal care, and are more likely to suffer a medical pregnancy complication, suggesting worse maternal health. We further show that the health disadvantage of firstborns persists...

  10. Methodology, Birth Order, Intelligence, and Personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalski, Richard L.; Shackelford, Todd K.

    2001-01-01

    Critiques recent research on the effects of birth order on intelligence and personality, which found that the between-family design revealed that birth order negatively related to intelligence, while the within-family design revealed that birth order was unrelated to intelligence. Suggests that it may not be intelligence that co-varies with birth…

  11. Birth order and myopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guggenheim, Jeremy A; McMahon, George; Northstone, Kate; Mandel, Yossi; Kaiserman, Igor; Stone, Richard A; Lin, Xiaoyu; Saw, Seang Mei; Forward, Hannah; Mackey, David A; Yazar, Seyhan; Young, Terri L; Williams, Cathy

    2013-12-01

    An association between birth order and reduced unaided vision (a surrogate for myopia) has been observed previously. We examined the association between birth order and myopia directly in four subject groups. Subject groups were participants in (1) the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; UK; age 15 years; N = 4401), (2) the Singapore Cohort Study of Risk Factors for Myopia (SCORM; Singapore; age 13 years; N = 1959), (3) the Raine Eye Health Study (REHS; Australia; age 20 years; N = 1344), and (4) Israeli Defense Force Pre-recruitment Candidates (IDFC; Israel; age 16-22 years; N = 888,277). The main outcome was odds ratios (OR) for myopia in first-born versus non-first-born individuals after adjusting for potential risk factors. The prevalence of myopia was numerically higher in first-born versus non-first-born individuals in all study groups, but the strength of evidence varied widely. Adjusted ORs (95% confidence intervals, CIs) were: ALSPAC, 1.31 (1.05-1.64); SCORM, 1.25 (0.89-1.77); REHS, 1.18 (0.90-1.55); and IDFC, 1.04 (1.03-1.06). In the large IDFC sample, the effect size was greater (a) for the first-born versus fourth- or higher-born comparison than for the first-born versus second/third-born comparison (p 4000 participants provided strong statistical support for the association. The available evidence suggested the relationship was independent of established risk factors such as time outdoors/reading, and thus may arise through a different causal mechanism.

  12. Birth Order Debate Resolved?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajonc, R. B.

    2001-01-01

    Critiques Rodgers et al.'s June 2000 research on the relation between birth order and intelligence, which suggests that it is a methodological illusion. Explains how the intellectual environment and the teaching function (whereby older children tutor younger ones) contribute to the growth of intellectual maturity, the first negatively and the…

  13. Later-borns Don't Give Up: The Temporary Effects of Birth Order on European Earnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Marco; Brunello, Giorgio

    2016-04-01

    The existing empirical evidence on the effects of birth order on wages does not distinguish between temporary and permanent effects. Using data from 11 European countries for males born between 1935 and 1956, we show that firstborns enjoy on average a 13.7% premium in their entry wage compared with later-borns. This advantage, however, is short-lived and disappears 10 years after labor market entry. Although firstborns start with a better job, partially because of their higher education, later-borns quickly catch up by switching earlier and more frequently to better-paying jobs. We argue that a key factor driving our findings is that later-borns have lower risk aversion than firstborns.

  14. Birth Order, Family Size and Educational Attainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haan, Monique

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of family size and birth order on educational attainment. An instrumental variables approach is used to identify the effect of family size. Instruments for the number of children are twins at last birth and the sex mix of the first two children. The effect of birth order is identified, by examining the relation…

  15. Risk Attitudes and Birth Order

    OpenAIRE

    Krause, Philipp; Heindl, Johannes; Jung, Andreas; Langguth, Berthold; Hajak, Göran; Sand, Philipp G.

    2013-01-01

    Risk attitudes play important roles in health behavior and everyday decision making. It is unclear, however, whether these attitudes can be predicted from birth order. We investigated 200 mostly male volunteers from two distinct settings. After correcting for multiple comparisons, for the number of siblings and for confounding by gender, ordinal position predicted perception of health-related risks among participants in extreme sports (p < .01). However, the direction of the effect contradict...

  16. [Effects of birth order, maternal abortion and mode of delivery on childhood acute leukemia risk: a meta-analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Guobin; Sha, Xia

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate the associations between birth order, maternal abortion and mode of delivery and childhood acute leukemia risk. Multiple electronic databases were searched to identify relevant studies up to March 2013 using the search terms "childhood leukemia", "acute lymphoblastic leukemia", "acute myeloid leukemia","birth order", "abortion", "miscarriage", "cesarean", "birth characteristics" and "prenatal risk factor". Data from cohort and case-control studies were analyzed using the Stata software. Twenty-three studies were included in this meta-analysis according to the selection criteria. No significant associations were identified for birth order and mode of delivery (birth order = 2: OR = 0.97, 95%CI: 0.89-1.05; birth order = 3: OR = 1.00, 95%CI: 0.91-1.11; birth order ≥ 4: OR = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.87-1.20; mode of delivery: OR = 1.05, 95%CI: 0.96-1.15). However, there was a significant association between maternal abortion and childhood acute leukemia risk (spontaneous abortion: OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.05-1.41; induced abortion: OR = 1.23, 95%CI: 1.07-1.43). Furthermore, the stratified analysis by disease subtypes showed that spontaneous and induced abortions were significantly associated with the risks of childhood acute myeloid leukemia (OR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.09-2.70) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (OR = 1.23, 95%CI: 1.05-1.42), respectively. This meta-analysis revealed that maternal abortion might contribute to the childhood acute leukemia risk.

  17. The Relationship of Birth Order and Gender with Academic Standing and Substance Use Among Youth in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Pilar; Andrade, Fernando; Delva, Jorge; Grogan-Kaylor, Andy; Castillo, Marcela

    2012-01-01

    Alfred Adler attempted to understand how family affects youth outcomes by considering the order of when a child enters a family (Adler, 1964). Adler's theory posits that birth order formation impacts individuals. We tested Adler's birth order theory using data from a cross-sectional survey of 946 Chilean youths. We examined how birth order and gender are associated with drug use and educational outcomes using three different birth order research models including: (1) Expedient Research, (2) Adler's birth order position, and (3) Family Size theoretical models. Analyses were conducted with structural equation modeling (SEM). We conclude that birth order has an important relationship with substance use outcomes for youth but has differing effects for educational achievement across both birth order status and gender.

  18. Systemic sclerosis, birth order and parity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Paul A J; Lester, Susan; Roberts-Thomson, Peter J

    2014-06-01

    A recent study identified increasing birth order to be a risk factor for the development of systemic sclerosis (SSc). This finding supports the theory that transplacental microchimerism may be a key pathological event in the initiation of SSc. We investigated the relationship between birth order and parity and the age of onset of SSc in South Australia. A retrospective analysis of patient data in the South Australian Scleroderma Register was performed. Data were obtained from a mailed questionnaire. Control data was collected prospectively using a similar questionnaire. The relationship between birth order, family size or parity and risk of subsequent development of SSc was analyzed by mixed effects logistic regression analysis. Three hundred and eighty-seven index probands were identified and compared with 457 controls. Controls were well matched for gender, but not for age. No statistically significant relationship was identified between SSc and birth order, parity in females, family size, age at first pregnancy in females or gender of first child in parous females. Our data suggests that parity, age at first pregnancy and the gender of the first child are not relevant factors in our understanding of the epidemiology and pathogenesis of SSc. Birth order and family size in both genders also appears irrelevant. These results argue against microchimerism as being relevant in the pathogenesis of SSc and add further support to the theory that stochastic events may be important in the etiopathogenesis of SSc. © 2013 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  19. Birth order, family size and educational attainment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of family size and birth order on educational attainment. An instrumental variables approach is used to identify the effect of family size. Instruments for the number of children are twins at last birth and the sex mix of the first two children. The effect of birth

  20. Risk attitudes and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Philipp; Heindl, Johannes; Jung, Andreas; Langguth, Berthold; Hajak, Göran; Sand, Philipp G

    2014-07-01

    Risk attitudes play important roles in health behavior and everyday decision making. It is unclear, however, whether these attitudes can be predicted from birth order. We investigated 200 mostly male volunteers from two distinct settings. After correcting for multiple comparisons, for the number of siblings and for confounding by gender, ordinal position predicted perception of health-related risks among participants in extreme sports (p Adlerian theory. Except for alcohol consumption, these findings extended to self-reported risk behavior. Together, the data call for a cautious stand on the impact of birth order on risk attitudes. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Birth Order and the Aviator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-02-17

    research on birth order. His book, Family Constellation , has been the basis for many subsequent studies. Toman states, ’We proceed from the assumption...patterns would do well to familiarize themselves with chapter 16 of Walter Toman’s Family Constellation . Procedures for conducting this type of

  2. Eczema, birth order, and infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Ann Maree; Crouch, Simon; Lightfoot, Tracy; Ansell, Pat; Simpson, Jill; Roman, Eve

    2008-05-15

    The association between infections occurring in the first 2 years of life and development of eczema was investigated in 1,782 control children from a national population-based case-control study in the United Kingdom conducted over the period 1991-1996. Dates of eczema and infectious diagnoses were ascertained from contemporaneously collected primary care records. Children diagnosed with eczema before the age of 2 years had more prior clinically diagnosed infections recorded than did children without eczema (rate ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18, 1.36). The difference in infection rates between children with and without eczema was apparent from birth and throughout the first 2 years of life. As expected, compared with children of second or higher birth order, those firstborn were at increased risk of eczema (p = 0.020); however, the relation between eczema and prior infection was evident only among children of second or higher birth order and not among firstborn children (rate ratio = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.32, 1.59, and rate ratio = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.20, respectively). The authors' results are consistent with the notion that the association between birth order and eczema is unlikely to be attributable to variations in early infectious exposure.

  3. Birth Order and Maladaptive Behavior in School-Aged Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Karla D.

    Drawing on Alfred Adler's theories on the effect of birth order on maladaptive behavior in children, this study focused on the relationship between birth order and the referral to counseling of school-aged children with maladaptive disorder. School-aged children (N=217) with academic or behavioral problems, ages 5 to 18, were referred to the staff…

  4. Birth-Order Complementarity and Marital Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Cornelia J. Vanderkooy; Hayden, Delbert J.

    1985-01-01

    Tested the influence of birth-order complementarity on marital adjustment among 327 married women using the Spanier Dyadic Adjustment Scale (1976). Birth-order complementarity was found to be unassociated with marital adjustment. (Author/BL)

  5. The intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary Denmark: the effects of number of siblings (full and half), birth order, and whether male or female.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, M; Knudsen, L B

    2002-11-01

    Using the Danish Fertility Database, we investigate intergenerational fertility transmission, including the relationship between the number of children born to those aged 25 and 26 years in 1994 and the number of their full sibs and half-sibs. We find that the fertility behaviour of parents and their children is positively correlated, and that half-sibs and full sibs have broadly similar effects. We do not find, in this complete national population, the strong birth order effects reported in some earlier studies. Nor do we find evidence of a weakening of intergenerational fertility transmission over time, perhaps because the greater flexibility of lifestyles in this post-transitional phase provides the extended social space within which intergenerational continuities can manifest themselves. We show that members of large families are over-represented in subsequent generations - that they have far more kin than those from smaller families - and that intergenerational continuities in fertility behaviour play a substantial role in keeping fertility higher than it would be in the absence of such transmission.

  6. Birth Order and Achievement: A Study of the Effects of Family Constellation and Related Variables on the Achievement of Officer Students at the Naval Postgraduate School.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dooley, William J.; Murphy, Timothy A.

    The findings suggest that there may be no significant difference between the achievement of first-, only-, and last-born children. While middle-born children appeared to do less well in academic achievement, their occupational achievement did not differ significantly from the other birth-order groups. The findings suggest further that…

  7. Older and Wiser? Birth Order and IQ of Young Men. NBER Working Paper No. 13237

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Salvanes, Kjell G.

    2007-01-01

    While recent research finds strong evidence that birth order affects children's outcomes such as education and earnings, the evidence on the effects of birth order on IQ is decidedly mixed. This paper uses a large dataset on the population of Norway that allows us to precisely measure birth order effects on IQ using both cross-sectional and…

  8. Birth order modifies the effect of IL13 gene polymorphisms on serum IgE at age 10 and skin prick test at ages 4, 10 and 18: a prospective birth cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ogbuanu Ikechukwu U

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Susceptibility to atopy originates from effects of the environment on genes. Birth order has been identified as a risk factor for atopy and evidence for some candidate genes has been accumulated; however no study has yet assessed a birth order-gene interaction. Objective To investigate the interaction of IL13 polymorphisms with birth order on allergic sensitization at ages 4, 10 and 18 years. Methods Mother-infant dyads were recruited antenatally and followed prospectively to age 18 years. Questionnaire data (at birth, age 4, 10, 18; skin prick test (SPT at ages 4, 10, 18; total serum IgE and specific inhalant screen at age 10; and genotyping for IL13 were collected. Three SNPs were selected from IL13: rs20541 (exon 4, nonsynonymous SNP, rs1800925 (promoter region and rs2066960 (intron 1. Analysis included multivariable log-linear regression analyses using repeated measurements to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs. Results Of the 1456 participants, birth order information was available for 83.2% (1212/1456; SPT was performed on 67.4% at age 4, 71.2% at age 10 and 58.0% at age 18. The prevalence of atopy (sensitization to one or more food or aeroallergens increased from 19.7% at age 4, to 26.7% at 10 and 41.1% at age 18. Repeated measurement analysis indicated interaction between rs20541 and birth order on SPT. The stratified analyses demonstrated that the effect of IL13 on SPT was restricted only to first-born children (p = 0.007; adjusted PR = 1.35; 95%CI = 1.09, 1.69. Similar findings were noted for firstborns regarding elevated total serum IgE at age 10 (p = 0.007; PR = 1.73; 1.16, 2.57 and specific inhalant screen (p = 0.034; PR = 1.48; 1.03, 2.13. Conclusions This is the first study to show an interaction between birth order and IL13 polymorphisms on allergic sensitization. Future functional genetic research need to determine whether or not birth order is related to altered expression and methylation of the IL13 gene.

  9. Birth order and hospitalization for alcohol and narcotics use in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Kieron; Myrskylä, Mikko; Tynelius, Per; Berglind, Daniel; Rasmussen, Finn

    2016-10-01

    Previous studies have shown that birth order is an important predictor of later life health as well as socioeconomic attainment. In this study, we examine the relationship between birth order and hospitalization for alcohol and narcotics use in Sweden. We study the relationship between birth order and hospitalization related to alcohol and narcotics use before and after the age of 20 using Swedish register data for cohorts born 1987-1994. We apply Cox proportional hazard models and use sibling fixed effects, eliminating confounding by factors shared by the siblings. Before age 20 we find that later born siblings are hospitalized for alcohol use at a higher rate than first-borns, and there is a monotonic increase in the hazard of hospitalization with increasing birth order. Second-borns are hospitalized at a rate 47% higher than first-borns, and third-borns at a rate 65% higher. Similar patterns are observed for hospitalization for narcotics use. After age 20 the pattern is similar, but the association is weaker. These patterns are consistent across various sibling group sizes. Later born siblings are more likely to be hospitalized for both alcohol and narcotics use in Sweden. These birth order effects are substantial in size, and larger than the estimated sex differences for the risk of hospitalization related to alcohol and drug use before age 20, and previous estimates for socioeconomic status differences in alcohol and drug abuse. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Role of Educational Exposure in the Association Between Myopia and Birth Order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guggenheim, Jeremy A; Williams, Cathy

    2015-12-01

    Visual impairment due to myopia is an important public health issue. A prior analysis of population-based cohorts aged 15 to 22 years recruited from the United Kingdom and Israel suggested myopia and high myopia were approximately 10% more common in first-born compared with later-born children. To examine whether myopia was associated with birth order in an earlier generation than studied previously and, if so, whether the association was attenuated after adjusting for education exposure, as predicted by the hypothesis that the education of children with later birth orders is less intense. Cross-sectional study of UK Biobank participants recruited from 2006 to 2010. Analysis was restricted to participants aged 40 to 69 years who had a vision assessment, self-reported white ethnicity, and no history of eye disorders (N = 89,120). Myopia and high myopia were defined as autorefraction of -0.75 diopters (D) or less and -6.00 D or less, respectively. Birth order and information on potential confounders including highest educational qualification ascertained using a structured questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) for myopia and high myopia by birth order, using logistic regression and adjusting for age and sex (model 1) or age, sex, and highest educational qualification (model 2). In model 1 (no adjustment for education), birth order was associated with both myopia and high myopia (eg, comparing first- vs second-born individuals; OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16; P = 1.40E-11 and OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.30; P = 3.60E-06 for myopia and high myopia, respectively). The risk for myopia became progressively lower for later birth orders, suggesting a dose response. In model 2 (after adjusting for education), the effect sizes were attenuated by approximately 25% (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.12; P = 1.30E-06 and OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25; P = 4.60E-04 for myopia and high myopia, respectively) and the apparent dose response was abolished. These data suggest that the

  11. Sex differences in the effect of birth order and parents' educational status on stunting: a study on Bengalee preschool children from eastern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Sadaruddin; Bose, Kaushik

    2010-08-01

    One of the greatest problems facing developing countries, including rural India, is undernutrition in terms of stunting among under 5-year-old children. However, there exists scanty information on the prevalence of stunting among preschool children in India and in particular in West Bengal. This study investigated prevalence of stunting and identified the predictor(s) of stunting among 1-5-year-old Bengalee rural preschool children of Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) centres. This cross-sectional study was undertaken at different ICDS centres of Chapra Block, Nadia District, West Bengal, India. A total of 673 preschool children (323 boys and 350 girls), aged 1-5 years were selected from 30 randomly selected ICDS centres to study the impact of parents' educational status and child birth order on stunting. The overall (age and sex combined) rate of stunting was 39.2%. Child birth order (BO) (chi(2)=14.10, df=1, peducational status (FES) (chi(2)=21.11, peducational status (MES) (chi(2)=14.34, df=1, p>0.001) were significantly associated with the prevalence of stunting among girls. Logistic regression analyses revealed that both FES (Wald=19.97, por=3rd BO had significantly higher risk (OR=2.49, CI=1.54-4.03) of stunting than those with or=secondary level. Similarly, girls with MESor=secondary level. In conclusion our study revealed that BO as well as parents' educational status were strong predictors of stunting among girls but not boys. Sex discrimination could be a likely cause for this sex difference in the impact of BO and parents' educational status.

  12. Association of birth order with cardiovascular disease risk factors in young adulthood: a study of one million Swedish men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelenkovic, Aline; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Myrskylä, Mikko; Rasmussen, Finn

    2013-01-01

    Birth order has been suggested to be linked to several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but the evidence is still inconsistent. We aim to determine the associations of birth order with body mass index (BMI), muscle strength and blood pressure. Further we will analyse whether these relationships are affected by family characteristics. BMI, elbow flexion, hand grip and knee extension strength and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at conscription examination in 1,065,710 Swedish young men born between 1951 and 1975. The data were analysed using linear multivariate and fixed effects regression models; the latter compare siblings and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. Fixed effect regression analysis showed that birth order was inversely associated with BMI: second and third born had 0.8% and 1.1% (pbirth order though not always significantly. The association between birth order and blood pressure was not significant. Birth order is negatively associated with BMI and knee extension strength, positively with elbow flexion and hand grip strength, and is not associated with blood pressure among young men. Although the effects are small, the link between birth order and some CVD risk factors is already detectable in young adulthood.

  13. Birth Order and Educational Achievement in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M.; Horwood, L. John; Boden, Joseph M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between birth order and later educational outcomes in a birth cohort of more than 1,000 New Zealand young adults studied to the age of twenty-five. Being later born was associated with gaining fewer educational qualifications at secondary level and beyond. The use of nested models to control for the confounding…

  14. Birth Order and Perceived Birth Order of Chemically Dependent and Academic Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Kristie G.; Newlon, Betty J.

    Birth order as it relates to family constellation is one of the principle concepts of Adlerian theory, and has implications for the understanding of chemical addiction. Adler premised that it was the individual's interpretation of his/her birth circumstances that was more important than sequential birth order. This study examined whether…

  15. Birth order and risk of childhood cancer in the Danish birth cohort of 1973-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüz, Joachim; Luta, George; Erdmann, Friederike; Ferro, Gilles; Bautz, Andrea; Simony, Sofie Bay; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Lightfoot, Tracy; Winther, Jeanette Falck

    2015-11-01

    Many studies have investigated the possible association between birth order and risk of childhood cancer, although the evidence to date has been inconsistent. Birth order has been used as a marker for various in utero or childhood exposures and is relatively straightforward to assess. Data were obtained on all children born in Denmark between 1973 and 2010, involving almost 2.5 million births and about 5,700 newly diagnosed childhood cancers before the age of 20 years. Data were analyzed using Poisson regression models. We failed to observe associations between birth order and risk of any childhood cancer subtype, including acute lymphoblastic leukemia; all rate ratios were close to one. Further analyses stratified by birth cohort (those born between 1973 and 1990, and those born between 1991 and 2010) also failed to show any associations. Considering stillbirths and/or controlling for birth weight and parental age in the analyses had no effect on the results. Analyses by years of birth (those born between 1973 and 1990, and those born between 1991 and 2010) did not show any changes in the overall pattern of no association. In this large cohort of all children born in Denmark over an almost 40-year period, we did not observe an association between birth order and the risk of childhood cancer.

  16. Healthy(?), wealthy, and wise: Birth order and adult health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Sandra E; Devereux, Paul J; Salvanes, Kjell G

    2016-12-01

    While recent research has found that birth order affects outcomes such as education and earnings, the evidence for effects on health is more limited. This paper uses a large Norwegian dataset to focus on the relationship between birth order and a range of health and health-related behaviors, outcomes not previously available in datasets of this magnitude. Interestingly, we find complicated effects of birth order. First-borns are more likely to be overweight, to be obese, and to have high blood pressure and high triglycerides. For example, compared to fifth-borns, first-borns are about 5% points more likely to be obese and 7% points more likely to have high blood pressure. So, unlike education or earnings, there is no clear first-born advantage in health. However, first-borns are about 13% points less likely to smoke daily than fifth-borns and are more likely to report good physical and mental health. Later-borns also score lower on well-being with fifth-borns being about 9% points less likely than first-borns to report that they are happy. Our findings are generally monotonic with middle-borns having outcomes that are intermediate between first- and fifth-borns. We find that these effects are largely unaffected by conditioning on education and earnings, suggesting that these are not the only important pathways to health differentials by birth order. When we explore possible mechanisms, we find that early maternal investment may play a role in birth order effects on health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevier, Melanie; Weires, Marianne; Thomsen, Hauke; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

    2011-01-01

    Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer

  18. Association of Birth Order with Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Young Adulthood: A Study of One Million Swedish Men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelenkovic, Aline; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Myrskylä, Mikko; Rasmussen, Finn

    2013-01-01

    Background Birth order has been suggested to be linked to several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but the evidence is still inconsistent. We aim to determine the associations of birth order with body mass index (BMI), muscle strength and blood pressure. Further we will analyse whether these relationships are affected by family characteristics. Methods BMI, elbow flexion, hand grip and knee extension strength and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at conscription examination in 1 065 710 Swedish young men born between 1951 and 1975. The data were analysed using linear multivariate and fixed effects regression models; the latter compare siblings and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. Results Fixed effect regression analysis showed that birth order was inversely associated with BMI: second and third born had 0.8% and 1.1% (p<0.001) lower BMI than first-born, respectively. The association pattern differed among muscle strengths. After adjustment for BMI, first-born presented lower elbow flexion and hand grip strength than second-born (−5.9 N and −3.8 N, respectively, p<0.001). Knee extension strength was inversely related to birth order though not always significantly. The association between birth order and blood pressure was not significant. Conclusions Birth order is negatively associated with BMI and knee extension strength, positively with elbow flexion and hand grip strength, and is not associated with blood pressure among young men. Although the effects are small, the link between birth order and some CVD risk factors is already detectable in young adulthood. PMID:23696817

  19. Association of birth order with cardiovascular disease risk factors in young adulthood: a study of one million Swedish men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Jelenkovic

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Birth order has been suggested to be linked to several cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, but the evidence is still inconsistent. We aim to determine the associations of birth order with body mass index (BMI, muscle strength and blood pressure. Further we will analyse whether these relationships are affected by family characteristics. METHODS: BMI, elbow flexion, hand grip and knee extension strength and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at conscription examination in 1,065,710 Swedish young men born between 1951 and 1975. The data were analysed using linear multivariate and fixed effects regression models; the latter compare siblings and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. RESULTS: Fixed effect regression analysis showed that birth order was inversely associated with BMI: second and third born had 0.8% and 1.1% (p<0.001 lower BMI than first-born, respectively. The association pattern differed among muscle strengths. After adjustment for BMI, first-born presented lower elbow flexion and hand grip strength than second-born (-5.9 N and -3.8 N, respectively, p<0.001. Knee extension strength was inversely related to birth order though not always significantly. The association between birth order and blood pressure was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Birth order is negatively associated with BMI and knee extension strength, positively with elbow flexion and hand grip strength, and is not associated with blood pressure among young men. Although the effects are small, the link between birth order and some CVD risk factors is already detectable in young adulthood.

  20. Ordered Delinquency: The “Effects” of Birth Order On Delinquency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cundiff, Patrick R.

    2014-01-01

    Juvenile delinquency has long been associated with birth order in popular culture. While images of the middle child acting out for attention or the rebellious youngest child readily spring to mind, little research has attempted to explain why. Drawing from Adlerian birth order theory and Sulloway's born to rebel hypothesis I examine the relationship between birth order and a variety of delinquent outcomes during adolescence. Following some recent research on birth order and intelligence, I use new methods that allow for the examination of both between-individual and within-family differences to better address the potential spurious relationship. My findings suggest that contrary to popular belief the relationship between birth order and delinquency is spurious. Specifically, I find that birth order effects on delinquency are spurious and largely products of the analytic methods used in previous tests of the relationship. The implications of this finding are discussed. PMID:23719623

  1. The Relationship of Birth Order and Gender with Academic Standing and Substance Use Among Youth in Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Horner, Pilar; Andrade, Fernando; Delva, Jorge; Grogan-Kaylor, Andy; Castillo, Marcela

    2012-01-01

    Alfred Adler attempted to understand how family affects youth outcomes by considering the order of when a child enters a family (Adler, 1964). Adler’s theory posits that birth order formation impacts individuals. We tested Adler’s birth order theory using data from a cross-sectional survey of 946 Chilean youths. We examined how birth order and gender are associated with drug use and educational outcomes using three different birth order research models including: (1) Expedient Research, (2) A...

  2. Birth Order and Child Cognitive Outcomes: An Exploration of the Parental Time Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monfardini, Chiara; See, Sarah Grace

    2016-01-01

    Higher birth order positions are associated with poorer outcomes due to smaller shares of resources received within the household. Using a sample of Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Child Development Supplement children, we investigate if the negative birth order effect we find in cognitive outcomes is due to unequal allocation of mother and father…

  3. What Causes Birth Order-Intelligence Patterns? The Admixture Hypothesis, Revived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Joseph Lee

    2001-01-01

    Describes why birth order interests both parents and researchers, discussing what really causes apparent birth order effects on intelligence, examining problems with using cross-sectional intelligence data, and noting how to move beyond cross-sectional inferences. Explains the admixture hypothesis, which finds that family size is much more…

  4. Birth Order, Educational Attainment, and Earnings: An Investigation Using the PSID

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantarevic, Jasmin; Mechoulan, Stephane

    2006-01-01

    We examine the implications of being early in the birth order, and whether a pattern exists within large families of falling then rising attainment with respect to birth order. Unlike other studies using U.S. data, we go beyond grade for age and look at racial differences. Drawing from OLS and fixed effects estimations, we find that being…

  5. Birth order in a contemporary sample of gay men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, D W; Blanchard, R; Zucker, K J

    2000-08-01

    The birth order of a contemporary North American sample of 97 gay men was quantified using Slater's Index. For the 84 probands with at least one sibling, the results showed a late mean birth order compared with the expected value of .50. Additional birth order indices derived from Slater's Index suggested that the mean later birth order was accounted for more strongly by the proband's number of older brothers than by his number of older sisters. The present findings constitute a replication of a series of recent studies and add to the growing body of evidence that birth order is a reliable correlate of sexual orientation in males.

  6. Gender Nonconformity and Birth Order in Relation to Anal Sex Role Among Gay Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift-Gallant, Ashlyn; Coome, Lindsay A; Monks, D Ashley; VanderLaan, Doug P

    2018-05-01

    Androphilia is associated with an elevated number of older brothers among natal males. This association, termed the fraternal birth order effect, has been observed among gay men who exhibit marked gender nonconformity. Gender nonconformity has been linked to gay men's preferred anal sex role. The present study investigated whether these two lines of research intersect by addressing whether the fraternal birth order effect was associated with both gender nonconformity and a receptive anal sex role (243 gay men, 91 heterosexual men). Consistent with previous research, we identified the fraternal birth order effect in our sample of gay men. Also, gay men were significantly more gender-nonconforming on adulthood and recalled childhood measures compared to heterosexual men. When gay men were compared based on anal sex role (i.e., top, versatile, bottom), all groups showed significantly greater recalled childhood and adult male gender nonconformity than heterosexual men, but bottoms were most nonconforming. Only gay men with a bottom anal sex role showed evidence of a fraternal birth order effect. A sororal birth order effect was found in our sample of gay men, driven by versatiles. No significant associations were found between fraternal birth order and gender nonconformity measures. These results suggest that the fraternal birth order effect may apply to a subset of gay men who have a bottom anal sex role preference and that this subgroup is more gender-nonconforming. However, there were no significant associations between fraternal birth order and gender nonconformity at the individual level. As such, based on the present study, whether processes underpinning the fraternal birth order effect influence gender nonconformity is equivocal.

  7. How Do Children Behave Regarding Their Birth Order in Dental Setting?

    OpenAIRE

    Faezeh Ghaderi; Soleiman Fijan; Shahram Hamedani

    2015-01-01

    Statement of the Problem: Prediction of child cooperation level in dental setting is an important issue for a dentist to select the proper behavior management method. Many psychological studies have emphasized the effect of birth order on patient behavior and personality; however, only a few researches evaluated the effect of birth order on child’s behavior in dental setting. Purpose: This study was designed to evaluate the influence of children ordinal position on their behavior in dental...

  8. Birth order and male homosexuality: extension of Slater's index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M B; Blanchard, R

    1998-08-01

    Homosexual men tend to be later-born children. Slater's index, the ratio of older sibs to all sibs, is consistently higher for male homosexuals than for comparable heterosexuals. According to some explanations of this tendency, homosexual men are later born with respect to their brothers and later born with respect to their sisters only secondarily and less strongly. We show that if sisters have no direct bearing on a brother's sexual orientation and brothers do, then [formula: see text] On the other hand, if sisters have the same bearing on a brother's sexual orientation as male sibs do, then [formula: see text] These ratios are calculated and compared in nine samples of homosexual men and nine corresponding samples of control heterosexuals. The first equation holds for homosexual men, and the second equation holds for heterosexual men. The late birth order of homosexual men is sex specific. What matters is a boy's birth order relative to his brothers only. This effect may have its origins in an immune reaction or in behavioral contagion.

  9. Twin's Birth-Order Differences in Height and Body Mass Index From Birth to Old Age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yokoyama, Yoshie; Jelenkovic, Aline; Sund, Reijo

    2016-01-01

    We analyzed birth order differences in means and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins from infancy to old age. The data were derived from the international CODATwins database. The total number of height and BMI measures from 0.5 to 79.5 years...... of age was 397,466. As expected, first-born twins had greater birth weight than second-born twins. With respect to height, first-born twins were slightly taller than second-born twins in childhood. After adjusting the results for birth weight, the birth order differences decreased and were no longer...... statistically significant. First-born twins had greater BMI than the second-born twins over childhood and adolescence. After adjusting the results for birth weight, birth order was still associated with BMI until 12 years of age. No interaction effect between birth order and zygosity was found. Only limited...

  10. Separate influences of birth order and gravidity/parity on the development of systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockrill, Tonya; del Junco, Deborah J; Arnett, Frank C; Assassi, Shervin; Tan, Filemon K; McNearney, Terry; Fischbach, Michael; Perry, Marilyn; Mayes, Maureen D

    2010-03-01

    Birth order has been valuable in revealing the role of environmental influences on the risk of developing certain diseases such as allergy and atopy. In addition, pregnancy has profound effects on the immune system such as short-term effects that permit fetal survival as well as longer-term effects that could influence late-onset diseases. In order to better evaluate these influences, we studied the association of birth order and gravidity/parity as risk factors for systemic sclerosis (SSc; scleroderma). Data regarding SSc cases and their unaffected sibling controls were obtained from the Scleroderma Family Registry and DNA Repository. The case-sibling design was used to minimize confounding due to differences in age, race, ethnicity, or calendar time. The gravidity/parity analysis was based on sibships with at least one SSc-affected and one unaffected sister. Birth order was examined in 974 sibships, comparing SSc cases (n = 987) with their unaffected siblings (n = 3,088). The risk of scleroderma increased with increasing birth order (odds ratio [OR] 1.25, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.06-1.50 for birth order 2-5; OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.57-3.15 for birth order 6-9; and OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.68-7.45 for birth order 10-15). Gravidity/parity was analyzed in 168 sibships (256 unaffected sisters, 172 SSc cases). We found an association between a history of one or more pregnancies and SSc (OR 2.8). Birth order and pregnancy were independently associated with a higher risk of developing SSc. These findings suggest that immune development in early childhood and/or pregnancy-associated events, including but not limited to microchimerism, plays a role in SSc susceptibility.

  11. Maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India: a comprehensive multivariate study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the study is to assess maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India. Data for this study was derived from the children's record of the 2007 India National Family Health Survey, which is a nationally representative cross-sectional household survey. Data is segregated according to birth order 1 to 5 to assess mother's occupation, Mother's education, child's gender, Mother's age, place of residence, wealth index, mother's anaemia level, prenatal care, assistance at delivery , antenatal care, place of delivery and other maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality. Out of total 51555 births, analysis is restricted to 16567 children of first birth order, 14409 of second birth order, 8318 of third birth order, 5021 of fourth birth order and 3034 of fifth birth order covering 92% of the total births taken place 0-59 months prior to survey. Mother's average age in years for birth orders 1 to 5 are 23.7, 25.8, 27.4, 29 and 31 years, respectively. Most mothers whose children died are Hindu, with no formal education, severely anaemic and working in the agricultural sector. In multivariate logistic models, maternal education, wealth index and breastfeeding are protective factors across all birth orders. In birth order model 1 and 2, mother's occupation is a significant risk factor. In birth order models 2 to 5, previous birth interval of lesser than 24 months is a risk factor. Child's gender is a risk factor in birth order 1 and 5. Information regarding complications in pregnancy and prenatal care act as protective factors in birth order 1, place of delivery and immunization in birth order 2, and child size at birth in birth order 4. Prediction models demonstrate high discrimination that indicates that our models fit the data. The study has policy implications such as enhancing the Information, Education and Communication network for mothers, especially at higher birth orders, in order to reduce under

  12. Intelligence and birth order in boys and girls.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boomsma, D.I.; van Beijsterveldt, C.E.M.; Beem, A.L.; Hoekstra, R.A.; Polderman, T.J.C.; Bartels, M.

    2008-01-01

    The relation between intelligence and birth order was shown in a recent publication [Bjerkedal, T., Kristensen, P., Skjeret, G. A. & Brevik, J. I. (2007). Intelligence test scores and birth order among young Norwegian men (conscripts) analyzed within and between families. Intelligence, 35, 503-514

  13. Can Knowledge of Client Birth Order Bias Clinical Judgment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Allan E.

    2004-01-01

    Clinicians (N = 308) responded to identical counseling vignettes of a male client that differed only in the client's stated birth order. Clinicians developed different impressions about the client and his family experiences that corresponded with the prototypical descriptions of persons from 1 of 4 birth orders (i.e., first, middle, youngest, and…

  14. Brief Report: Asperger's Syndrome and Sibling Birth Order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Karmen; Zimmerman, Andrew; Bauman, Margaret; Ferrone, Christine; Venter, Jacob; Spybrook, Jessaca; Henry, Charles

    2013-01-01

    Prior investigations suggest that birth order position may be associated with the risk for developing a pervasive developmental disorder. This retrospective chart review examined the birth order status of 29 psychiatrically-referred patients with Asperger's Syndrome (AS). Eighty-six percent of the subjects were first born. The finding was…

  15. Birth order and sport participation | Potgieter | South African Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between birth order and sport participation in terms of the inherent dangers associated with different sport codes. Data collected from 1310 sport science students over a period of more than 15 years failed to support the popular birth-order hypothesis. Keywords: ...

  16. Intelligence and Birth Order in Boys and Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boomsma, Dorret I.; van Beijsterveld, T. C. E. M.; Beem, A. L.; Hoekstra, R. A.; Polderman, T. J. C.; Bartels, M.

    2008-01-01

    The relation between intelligence and birth order was shown in a recent publication [Bjerkedal, T., Kristensen, P., Skjeret, G. A. & Brevik, J. I. (2007). Intelligence test scores and birth order among young Norwegian men (conscripts) analyzed within and between families. "Intelligence," 35, 503-514] to be negative. Subjects in this…

  17. Birth order and post-traumatic stress disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Ben; Griffiths, Emily C

    2014-01-01

    To compare the birth order of patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and adjustment disorder (AD) with population norms. 83 PTSD patients and 104 AD control patients from a psychiatric trauma clinic were diagnosed according to DCR-10 guidelines. A family history was taken as to number of siblings, and their birth order. We compared the distribution of birth order for each patient group against birth order distributions expected by chance for the same years of birth using UK population-level birth order from the Office for National Statistics. Psychiatric patients with PTSD were more likely to be from a large family, specifically to be the fifth child or later (OR 4.78, p birth order between AD patients and the general population. People with PTSD are more likely to be the youngest children from large families than expected from a random sample of people born in the same years. This association with birth order was not found for another psychiatric diagnosis AD from the same clinic. We discuss possible psychosocial and biological causes, and implications for further research.

  18. CHANGES IN SEX RATIO AT BIRTH IN CHINA: A DECOMPOSITION BY BIRTH ORDER.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Quanbao; Yu, Qun; Yang, Shucai; Sánchez-Barricarte, Jesús J

    2017-11-01

    The long-term high sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a serious issue in China. In this study, changes in SRB were decomposed into variations in SRB by birth order and compositional changes in female births by birth order. With SRB data from China's surveys and censuses, and SRB data from South Korea's vital registration and censuses from 1980-2015, the trend and decomposition results in SRB were compared between China and South Korea, and the decomposition results for urban and rural SRBs, and for provinces, are presented. In both China and South Korea the rise in the SRB was driven by a rise in the SRB at all birth orders, which was only partly counteracted by the change in the distribution of births by order. The overall rise in the SRB ended when there was a decline in the SRB at second birth or above in South Korea. In China the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders increased more for the rural population than for the urban population before 2000, resulting in a higher total SRB for rural than urban population. After 2000, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders lowered the total SRB for the rural population, whereas the effect of compositional change increased the total SRB, leading to a very slight rise in the total SRB for the rural population. At the province level, there was no spatial autocorrelation for the changes in total SRB by province, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders or the effect of compositional change. The effect of variations in SRB by birth order accounted for the majority of changes in total SRB in most provinces.

  19. Birth Order Positions and Personality Traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharbe, Ida Hartini Ahmad; Harun, Lily Mastura Hj.

    The growing concern for the development of teenagers has brought up issues regarding the role of the family system in shaping the personality traits of children. Alfred Adler (1870-1937), an Austrian psychiatrist who introduced the psychological/therapeutic model, "Individual Psychology," highlighted the importance of birth order…

  20. Beyond the genetic basis of sensation seeking: The influence of birth order, family size and parenting styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feij, Jan A,

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Genetic analyses of sensation seeking have shown fairly high heritabilities for measures of this trait. However, 40 to 60% of the variance remains unexplained by genetic factors. This longitudinal study examines the influence of characteristics of the family environment -- birth order, family size, socio-economic status and parenting styles -- on two dimensions of sensation seeking: disinhibition and boredom susceptibility. Previous research has shown that these dimensions load on the same factor, are related to biologically based impulsive disorders, and have a common genetic basis. Questionnaire and biographical data obtained from 532 female and 479 male young adults (age between 18 and 30 years were analyzed using structural modeling. The results show that participants who experienced little parental care and much control were more likely to have high scores on disinhibition and boredom susceptibility. It appears that these family factors may partly explain the previously reported effects of birth order and family size on sensation seeking.

  1. Birth order and paediatric allergic disease: A nationwide longitudinal survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikkawa, T; Yorifuji, T; Fujii, Y; Yashiro, M; Okada, A; Ikeda, M; Doi, H; Tsukahara, H

    2018-05-01

    Environmental factors seem to be related to the incidence of allergic disease. Children with a later birth order are often exposed to environments, where pathogens and endotoxins can be found, and thus have a higher risk of developing infectious diseases. Therefore, birth order is regarded as an indicator that reflects post-natal environment. However, longitudinal studies are limited on this subject. This study sought to elucidate the relationships between birth order and allergic disease. From a nationwide longitudinal study that followed children born in 2001 (n = 47 015), we selected doctors' visits for 3 types of allergic disease-bronchial asthma, food allergy and atopic dermatitis-from infancy to 12 years of age and conducted binomial log-linear regression analysis to evaluate the associations between birth order and these diseases. We adjusted for the child and parental factors and estimated risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each outcome. The associations between birth order and bronchial asthma were diverse; later birth order increased the risk in early childhood, but decreased the risks during school age. For example, the adjusted RR comparing third-born or higher and first-born children was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.35) between 30 and 42 months of age, but was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.89) between 10 and 11 years. Later birth order was generally protective for food allergy but increased the risk of atopic dermatitis. The influence of birth order depended on the type of allergic disease and the childhood period. Childhood is unique in terms of physical and immunological development, and the immune response to the post-natal environment in childhood appears to be heterogeneous. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Birth order and mortality in two ethno-linguistic groups: Register-based evidence from Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarela, Jan; Cederström, Agneta; Rostila, Mikael

    2016-06-01

    Previous research has documented an association between birth order and suicide, although no study has examined whether it depends on the cultural context. Our aim was to study the association between birth order and cause-specific mortality in Finland, and whether it varies by ethno-linguistic affiliation. We used data from the Finnish population register, representing a 5% random sample of all Finnish speakers and a 20% random sample of Swedish speakers, who lived in Finland in any year 1987-2011. For each person, there was a link to all children who were alive in 1987. In total, there were 254,059 siblings in 96,387 sibling groups, and 9797 deaths. We used Cox regressions stratified by each siblings group and estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks during the period 1987-2011. In line with previous research from Sweden, deaths from suicide were significantly associated with birth order. As compared to first-born, second-born had a suicide risk of 1.27, third-born of 1.35, and fourth- or higher-born of 1.72, while other causes of death did not display an evident and consistent birth-order pattern. Results for the Finnish-speaking siblings groups were almost identical to those based on both ethno-linguistic groups. In the Swedish-speaking siblings groups, there was no increase in the suicide risk by birth order, but a statistically not significant tendency towards an association with other external causes of death and deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Our findings provided evidence for an association between birth order and suicide among Finnish speakers in Finland, while no such association was found for Swedish speakers, suggesting that the birth order effect might depend on the cultural context. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Aberrant clones: Birth order generates life history diversity in Greater Duckweed, Spirodela polyrhiza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejbel, Hebah S; Simons, Andrew M

    2018-02-01

    Environmental unpredictability is known to result in the evolution of bet-hedging traits. Variable dormancy enhances survival through harsh conditions, and is widely cited as a diversification bet-hedging trait. The floating aquatic plant, Spirodela polyrhiza (Greater Duckweed), provides an opportunity to study diversification because although partially reliable seasonal cues exist, its growing season is subject to an unpredictable and literally "hard" termination when the surface water freezes, and overwinter survival depends on a switch from production of normal daughter fronds to production of dense, sinking "turions" prior to freeze-over. The problem for S. polyrhiza is that diversified dormancy behavior must be generated among clonally produced, genetically identical offspring. Variation in phenology has been observed in the field, but its sources are unknown. Here, we investigate sources of phenological variation in turion production , and test the hypothesis that diversification in turion phenology is generated within genetic lineages through effects of parental birth order. As expected, phenotypic plasticity to temperature is expressed along a thermal gradient; more interestingly, parental birth order was found to have a significant and strong effect on turion phenology: Turions are produced earlier by late birth-order parents. These results hold regardless of whether turion phenology is measured as first turion birth order, time to first turion, or turion frequency. This study addresses a question of current interest on potential mechanisms generating diversification, and suggests that consistent phenotypic differences across birth orders generate life history variation.

  4. Birth order, sibship size, and risk for germ-cell testicular cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richiardi, Lorenzo; Akre, Olof; Lambe, Mats; Granath, Fredrik; Montgomery, Scott M; Ekbom, Anders

    2004-05-01

    Several studies have reported an inverse association between birth order and testicular cancer risk, but estimates vary greatly and the biologic mechanism underlying the association is not established. We have evaluated the effect of birth order, sibship size, and the combined effect of these 2 variables in relation to risk for testicular cancer in a large, nested case-control study. Specifically, we compared 3051 patients with germ-cell testicular cancer (diagnosed between 1958 and 1998 and identified through the Swedish Cancer Registry) with 9007 population control subjects. Using record linkage with the Multi-Generation Register and the Census, we obtained information on number, order, and sex of the subjects' siblings, parental age, and paternal socioeconomic status. Both birth order and sibship size had an inverse and monotonically decreasing association with testicular cancer risk after adjusting for parental age, paternal socioeconomic status, and twin status. The associations were modified by subjects' cohort of birth and were not present among those born after 1959. The odds ratio for having at least 3 siblings, compared with none, was 0.63 (95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.75) among subjects born before 1960. Stratified analyses showed that birth order and number of younger siblings had a similar inverse association with the risk for testicular cancer. Sibship size, and not only birth order, is associated with testicular cancer risk. This suggests a higher prevalence of parental subfertility among patients with testicular cancer.

  5. Birth order and postpartum psychiatric disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munk-Olsen, Trine; Jones, Ian; Laursen, Thomas Munk

    2014-05-01

    Primiparity is a well-established and significant risk factor for postpartum psychosis and especially bipolar affective disorders. However, no studies have, to our knowledge, quantified the risk of psychiatric disorders after the first, second, or subsequent births. The overall aim of the present study was to study the risk of first-time psychiatric episodes requiring inpatient treatment after the birth of the first, second, or third child. A cohort comprising 750,127 women was defined using information from Danish population registries. Women were followed individually from the date of birth of their first, second, or third child through the following 12 months over the period 1970-2011. The outcome of interest was defined as first-time admissions to a psychiatric hospital with any type of psychiatric disorder. Women who had a first psychiatric episode which required inpatient treatment after their first (n = 1,327), second (n = 735), or third (n = 238) delivery were included. The highest risk was found in primiparous mothers 10-19 days postpartum [relative risk (RR) = 8.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.89-10.85]. After the second birth, the highest risk was at 60-89 days postpartum (RR = 2.01; 95% CI: 1.52-2.65), and there was no increased risk after the third birth. The effect of primiparity was strongest for bipolar disorders. Primiparity is a significant risk factor for experiencing a first-time episode with a psychiatric disorder, especially bipolar disorders. A second birth was associated with a smaller risk, and there was no increased risk after the third birth. The risk of postpartum episodes after the second delivery increased with increasing inter-pregnancy intervals, a result which warrants further investigation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Birth order--a risk factor for dental trauma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käch, Matthias; Krastl, Gabriel; Zitzmann, Nicola U; Kühl, Sebastian; Filippi, Andreas

    2014-04-01

    Many character traits are influenced by birth order with greatest differences between first and lastborns. To investigate the influence of birth order on the risk of dental trauma. Five hundred mothers in Switzerland were interviewed personally regarding dental trauma in their children. Inclusion criteria were a family size of at least two children. Data of 1282 children were collected. Thirty-two percent of the children had sustained one or more dental trauma before the age of 16 (57% male, 43% female). In children who had sustained dental trauma twice, the gender ratio moved to 68% male and 32% female (P = 0.003). Regarding birth order, lastborns sustained more second dental traumas. Relative risk of second dental trauma was 2.1 times higher in lastborns than in firstborns (P = 0.02). Moreover, certain character traits in children are influenced by birth order. According to their mothers, lastborns were more curious, less calm and less deliberate than firstborns (P Birth order is a risk factor for sustaining dental trauma twice. Character traits of lastborns (curious, not calm/deliberate and aggressive) could be reasons for higher risk of dental trauma. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Respiratory morbidity in twins by birth order, gestational age and mode of delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricelj, Katja; Tul, Natasa; Lasic, Mateja; Bregar, Andreja Trojner; Verdenik, Ivan; Lucovnik, Miha; Blickstein, Isaac

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the relationship between respiratory morbidity in twins by gestational age, birth order and mode of delivery. All twin deliveries at birth order and to the mode of delivery. In contrast, RDS was more frequent among the second born twins in the vaginal birth groups born at 30-36 weeks [odds ratio (OR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-5.1 and OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.5 for 33-36 weeks and 30-32 weeks, respectively], whereas this trend was seen in the cesarean birth groups born earlier (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13.0 for 28-29 weeks). Cesarean delivery significantly increased the frequency of RDS in twin A as well as in twin B compared with vaginal birth, but only at gestational ages birth order have a gestational age dependent effect on the incidence of RDS.

  8. Birth order and physical fitness in early adulthood: evidence from Swedish military conscription data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Kieron; Myrskylä, Mikko

    2014-12-01

    Physical fitness at young adult ages is an important determinant of physical health, cognitive ability, and mortality. However, few studies have addressed the relationship between early life conditions and physical fitness in adulthood. An important potential factor influencing physical fitness is birth order, which prior studies associate with several early- and later-life outcomes such as height and mortality. This is the first study to analyse the association between birth order and physical fitness in late adolescence. We use military conscription data on 218,873 Swedish males born between 1965 and 1977. Physical fitness is measured by a test of maximal working capacity, a measure of cardiovascular fitness closely related to V02max. We use linear regression with sibling fixed effects, meaning a within-family comparison, to eliminate the confounding influence of unobserved factors that vary between siblings. To understand the mechanism we further analyse whether the association between birth order and physical fitness varies by sibship size, parental socioeconomic status, birth cohort or length of the birth interval. We find a strong, negative and monotonic relationship between birth order and physical fitness. For example, third-born children have a maximal working capacity approximately 0.1 (p birth order effect does not depend on the length of the birth intervals, in two-child families a longer birth interval strengthens the advantage of the first-born. Our results illustrate the importance of birth order for physical fitness, and suggest that the first-born advantage already arises in late adolescence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The Implications of Family Size and Birth Order for Test Scores and Behavioral Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silles, Mary A.

    2010-01-01

    This article, using longitudinal data from the National Child Development Study, presents new evidence on the effects of family size and birth order on test scores and behavioral development at age 7, 11 and 16. Sibling size is shown to have an adverse causal effect on test scores and behavioral development. For any given family size, first-borns…

  10. Earliest Recollections and Birth Order: Two Adlerian Exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Les

    1992-01-01

    Presents two exercises designed to demonstrate the influence of two Adlerian principles on personality. Includes exercises dealing with birth order and earliest recollection. Concludes that the exercises actively demonstrate major concepts for counseling courses in Adlerian psychotherapy. Reports that students rated both exercises highly, with…

  11. Birth Order and the Language Experience of Bilingual Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sarah J.

    2002-01-01

    Investigated the language experience of second-generation immigrant Korean American school-age children (4-18 years) by surveying their parents. Reports responses to a small portion of the questionnaire that specifically addressed the issue of birth order. (Author/VWL)

  12. Birth Order and Intelligence: Together Again for the Last Time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Cleveland, H. Harrington; van den Oord, Edwin; Rowe, David C.

    2001-01-01

    The authors respond to critiques of their investigation of whether birth order reliably contributes to variance in intelligence, concluding that little in the critiques challenges the original position that cross-sectional data are suspect as evidence for within-family trends in intelligence. When looking inside families and directly comparing the…

  13. The role of birth order in substance related disorders | Mukangi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was guided by two objectives. The first objective was to investigate which of the ordinal birth orders (one's chronological position with in their family of origin) was over represented within patients receiving treatment for addiction at a drugs rehabilitation centre. The second objective was to investigate whether ...

  14. Educational Attainment of 25 Year Old Norwegians According to Birth Order and Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Petter; Bjerkedal, Tor

    2010-01-01

    This register-based longitudinal study of 392 969 Norwegians examined associations between birth order, gender and educational attainment at age 25 years within families (fixed effects regression) and between families (ordinary OLS regression). Data were retrieved from national registers for births of mothers with single births only and a first…

  15. Fraternal birth order and ratio of heterosexual/homosexual feelings in women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConaghy, Nathaniel; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Stevens, Carol; Manicavasagar, Vijaya; Buhrich, Neil; Vollmer-Conna, Ute

    2006-01-01

    Studies of the 2-3% of persons who identify as homosexual found men but not women had more older brothers than persons who identify as heterosexual. The present study investigated the birth order in the approximately 20% of men and women who anonymously report some homosexual feelings, few of whom identify as homosexual. The number of older brothers and sisters was investigated in seven cohorts: 319 male twins; and 49, 54, and 61 female and 66, 116, and 50 male medical students. Both women and men who anonymously reported homosexual feelings had a greater mean number of older brothers and sisters than did those who reported no homosexual feelings. The difference was stronger in relation to brothers than sisters. The birth order effect was not related to the strength of the subjects' degree of homosexual compared with heterosexual feelings. Its presence in women could not be accounted for by the widely accepted hypothesis that the birth order effect is due to a maternal immune reaction provoked only by male fetuses. The lack of relationship between the strength of the effect and degree of homosexual feelings in the men and women suggests the influence of birth order on homosexual feelings was not due to a biological, but a social process in the subjects studied. Investigating the neglected significant percentage of predominantly heterosexual men and women who anonymously report some homosexual feelings may aid in understanding the factors influencing sexual orientation, and identity.

  16. BIRTH ORDER AND ANDROPHILIC MALE-TO-FEMALE TRANSSEXUALISM IN BRAZIL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderlaan, Doug P; Blanchard, Ray; Zucker, Kenneth J; Massuda, Raffael; Fontanari, Anna Martha Vaitses; Borba, André Oliveira; Costa, Angelo Bradelli; Schneider, Maiko Abel; Mueller, Andressa; Soll, Bianca Machado Borba; Schwarz, Karine; Da Silva, Dhiordan Cardoso; Lobato, Maria Inês Rodrigues

    2017-07-01

    Previous research has indicated that biological older brothers increase the odds of androphilia in males. This finding has been termed the fraternal birth order effect. The maternal immune hypothesis suggests that this effect reflects the progressive immunization of some mothers to male-specific antigens involved in fetal male brain masculinization. Exposure to these antigens, as a result of carrying earlier-born sons, is hypothesized to produce maternal immune responses towards later-born sons, thus leading to female-typical neural development of brain regions underlying sexual orientation. Because this hypothesis posits mechanisms that have the potential to be active in any situation where a mother gestates repeated male fetuses, a key prediction is that the fraternal birth order effect should be observable in diverse populations. The present study assessed the association between sexual orientation and birth order in androphilic male-to-female transsexuals in Brazil, a previously unexamined population. Male-to-female transsexuals who reported attraction to males were recruited from a specialty gender identity service in southern Brazil (n=118) and a comparison group of gynephilic non-transsexual men (n=143) was recruited at the same hospital. Logistic regression showed that the transsexual group had significantly more older brothers and other siblings. These effects were independent of one another and consistent with previous studies of birth order and male sexual orientation. The presence of the fraternal birth order effect in the present sample provides further evidence of the ubiquity of this effect and, therefore, lends support to the maternal immune hypothesis as an explanation of androphilic sexual orientation in some male-to-female transsexuals.

  17. BIRTH ORDER, STAGE OF INFANCY AND INFANT MORTALITY IN INDIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, S K; Ram, Bali; Singh, Abhishek; Yadav, Awdhesh

    2017-10-02

    Using data from India's National Family Health Survey, 2005-06 (NFHS-3), this article examines the patterns of relationship between birth order and infant mortality. The analysis controls for a number of variables, including mother's characteristics such as age at the time of survey, current place of residence (urban/rural), years of schooling, religion, caste, and child's sex and birth weight. A modest J-shaped relationship between birth order of children and their risk of dying in the neonatal period is found, suggesting that although both first- and last-born children are at a significantly greater risk of dying compared with those in the middle, last-borns (i.e. fourth and higher order births) are at the worst risk. However, in the post-neonatal period first-borns are not as vulnerable, but the risk increases steadily with the addition of successive births and last-borns are at much greater risk, even worse than those in the neonatal period. Although the strength of relationship between birth order and mortality is attenuated after the potential confounders are taken into account, the relationship between the two variables remains curvilinear in the neonatal period and direct in the post-neonatal period. There are marked differences in these patterns by the child's sex. While female children are less prone to the risk of dying in the neonatal period in comparison with male children, the converse is true in the post-neonatal period. Female children not only run higher risks of dying in the post-neonatal period, but also become progressively more vulnerable with an increase in birth order.

  18. Parent-Child Quality Time: Does Birth Order Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    Using data from the American Time Use Survey, I find that a first-born child receives 20-30 more minutes of quality time each day with his or her parent than a second-born child of the same age from a similar family. The birth-order difference results from parents giving roughly equal time to each child at any point in time while the amount of…

  19. The Social and Academic Consequences of Birth Order: Real, Artifactual, or Both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelman, Lala Carr; Powell, Brian

    1985-01-01

    Examined impact of birth order on social skills and academic performance of children and adolescents (N=3,568). Results revealed no significant relationship between birth order and academic performance but did reveal a significant positive relationship between birth order and social skills. Leadership skills were related to birth order for males.…

  20. Influence of birth order, birth weight, colostrum and serum immunoglobulin G on neonatal piglet survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera, Rafael A; Lin, Xi; Campbell, Joy M; Moeser, Adam J; Odle, Jack

    2012-12-23

    Intake of colostrum after birth is essential to stimulate intestinal growth and function, and to provide systemic immunological protection via absorption of Immunoglobulin G (IgG). The birth order and weight of 745 piglets (from 75 litters) were recorded during a one-week period of farrowing. Only pigs weighing greater than 0.68 kg birth weight were chosen for the trial. Sow colostrum was collected during parturition, and piglets were bled between 48 and 72 hours post-birth. Piglet serum IgG and colostral IgG concentrations were determined by radial immunodiffusion. Sow parity had a significant (P birth order accounted for another 4% of the variation observed in piglet serum IgG concentration (P birth weight had no detectable effect. Piglet serum IgG concentration had both a linear (P Birth order had no detectable effect on survival, but birth weight had a positive linear effect (P birth had a 68% survival rate, and those weighing 1.6 kg (n = 158) had an 89% survival. We found that the combination of sow colostrum IgG concentration and birth order can account for 10% of the variation of piglet serum IgG concentration and that piglets with less than 1,000 mg/dl IgG serum concentration and weight of 0.9 kg at birth had low survival rate when compared to their larger siblings. The effective management of colostrum uptake in neonatal piglets in the first 24 hrs post-birth may potentially improve survival from birth to weaning.

  1. How many gay men owe their sexual orientation to fraternal birth order?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantor, James M; Blanchard, Ray; Paterson, Andrew D; Bogaert, Anthony F

    2002-02-01

    In men, sexual orientation correlates with the number of older brothers, each additional older brother increasing the odds of homosexuality by approximately 33%. However, this phenomenon, the fraternal birth order effect, accounts for the sexual orientation of only a proportion of gay men. To estimate the size of this proportion, we derived generalized forms of two epidemiological statistics, the attributable fraction and the population attributable fraction, which quantify the relationship between a condition and prior exposure to an agent that can cause it. In their common forms, these statistics are calculable only for 2 levels of exposure: exposed versus not-exposed. We developed a method applicable to agents with multiple levels of exposure--in this case, number of older brothers. This noniterative method, which requires the odds ratio from a prior logistic regression analysis, was then applied to a large contemporary sample of gay men. The results showed that roughly 1 gay man in 7 owes his sexual orientation to the fraternal birth order effect. They also showed that the effect of fraternal birth order would exceed all other causes of homosexuality in groups of gay men with 3 or more older brothers and would precisely equal all other causes in a theoretical group with 2.5 older brothers. Implications are suggested for the gay sib-pair linkage method of identifying genetic loci for homosexuality.

  2. Epilepsia e ordem de nascimento Epilepsy and birth order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Cesar Sandler

    1975-09-01

    Full Text Available Mediante o método de Greenwood-Yule e o teste estatístico mais sensível de que se dispõe atualmente, o x² de Halperin, foi testada a possível associação entre a prevalência de epilepsia e a ordem de nascimento de 238 pacientes. Estes pacientes foram obtidos em dois hospitais de São Paulo, na tentativa de se controlar sua classe social; tratava-se de epilépticos com variados transtornos psiquiátricos. Concluiu-se por uma associação estatisticamente significante entre a doença e a ordem de nascimento dos 238 pacientes, com uma sobre-representação nos primeiros e nos últimos nascidos.This paper deals with birth order and epilepsy. The Greenwood-Yule's method was applied, with the most powerful statistical test available, Halperin's modified chi-square. The authors concluded that there is a consistent positive association between this illness prevalence and birth order of the patients, being first and last born over-represented, irrespective of their sibship size. The data were obtained in two psychiatric hospitals in the city of São Paulo, being social class factor qualitatively controlled. All the 238 patients studied suffered a wide range of psychiatric symptoms.

  3. Supplementary analyses regarding Langevin, Langevin, and Curnoe's (2007) findings on fraternal birth order in homosexual men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Ray

    2007-08-01

    A recent article by Langevin, Langevin, and Curnoe (2007) reported mixed results regarding the fraternal birth order effect, that is, the repeatedly observed finding that older brothers correlate with homosexuality in later-born males. Using a fraternal birth order index computed as older brothers minus younger brothers, Langevin et al. found that the "homoerotic" probands were born later among their brothers than were the "heteroerotic" probands in their full sample (N = 1194) and in their subsample over age 19 (N = 1122), but not in their subsample over age 31 (N = 698) or in their subsample with mothers over age 46 at the proband's birth (N = 727). The present writer concluded that the results obtained with the larger samples are more reliable, based on analyses demonstrating that (1) the larger samples are unlikely to be seriously affected by incomplete sibships, and (2) the smaller samples have poor statistical power. A separate analysis, based on an approximate reconstruction of Langevin et al.'s raw data, indicated that their heteroerotic probands reported a ratio of 104 older brothers per 100 older sisters, which is close to the normative population value of 106, whereas their homoerotic probands reported a ratio of 137, indicating a statistically significant excess of older brothers. These results suggest that Langevin et al.'s data showed significant evidence of a fraternal birth order effect and that their data were consistent with previous studies of this phenomenon.

  4. Sibling Variation and Family Language Policy: The Role of Birth Order in the Spanish Proficiency and First Names of Second-Generation Latinos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parada, Maryann

    2013-01-01

    The effects of birth order have been debated in many disciplines and have been shown to be important for a number of outcomes. However, studies examining the significance of birth order in language development and practices, particularly with regard to minority languages, are few. This article reports on two sets of data collected among Spanish…

  5. Birth order and preschool children's cooperative abilities: A within-family analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Heather; Plamondon, André; Jenkins, Jennifer M

    2017-09-01

    There is evidence for a laterborn sibling advantage in some social skills, although this has not been investigated in children's early capacities for cooperation. Using a within-family design, this study compared firstborn and laterborn (i.e., middle and youngest) siblings on their cooperative abilities when they were aged around 3 years. Further, the study investigated whether the association between children's birth order and cooperative abilities was dependent on the prosocial behaviour of other siblings in the home. The sample included 288 ethnically and sociodemographically diverse children clustered within 144 families. Cooperation was directly assessed using a problem-solving paradigm requiring two simultaneous and complementary actions of the child and adult tester to achieve a joint goal. Parents reported on the prosocial behaviour of up to four siblings in the home. Results of a multilevel analysis indicated that youngest children were more advanced in their cooperative abilities, compared to firstborn children, irrespective of their siblings' prosociality. Middle children, in contrast, were only advantaged over firstborn children if their siblings showed high levels of prosociality. The analysis accounted for a number of potential family-wide confounds, providing evidence that this is a child-specific effect related to birth order. Findings are discussed from a social constructivist perspective with an emphasis on the sibling relationship as a context for cooperative interactions that facilitate sociocognitive development. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? There are individual differences in children's early capacities for cooperation. Children's early cooperation has not been considered in relation to birth order and/or sibling interaction quality. What does this study add? Youngest children are advantaged in their cooperation as compared to firstborn children. Middle children are also advantaged, but only if their

  6. Birth order and suicide in adulthood: evidence from Swedish population data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostila, Mikael; Saarela, Jan; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2014-06-15

    Each year, almost 1 million people die from suicide, which is among the leading causes of death in young people. We studied how birth order was associated with suicide and other main causes of death. A follow-up study based on the Swedish population register was conducted for sibling groups born from 1932 to 1980 who were observed during the period 1981-2002. Focus was on the within-family variation in suicide risk, meaning that we studied sibling groups that consisted of 2 or more children in which at least 1 died from suicide. These family-fixed effects analyses revealed that each increase in birth order was related to an 18% higher suicide risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.23, P = 0.000). The association was slightly lower among sibling groups born in 1932-1955 (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.21, P = 0.000) than among those born in 1967-1980 (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.57, P = 0.080). Further analyses suggested that the association between birth order and suicide was only modestly influenced by sex, birth spacing, size of the sibling group, own socioeconomic position, own marital status, and socioeconomic rank within the sibling group. Causes of death other than suicide and other external causes were not associated with birth order. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Complexities of sibling analysis when exposures and outcomes change with time and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudan, Madhuri; Kheifets, Leeka I; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Divan, Hozefa A; Olsen, Jørn

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the complexities of performing a sibling analysis with a re-examination of associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems observed previously in the Danish National Birth Cohort. Children (52,680; including 5441 siblings) followed up to age 7 were included. We examined differences in exposures and behavioral problems between siblings and non-siblings and by birth order and birth year. We estimated associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems while accounting for the random family effect among siblings. The association of behavioral problems with both prenatal and postnatal exposure differed between siblings (odds ratio (OR): 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-1.66) and non-siblings (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.36-1.74) and within siblings by birth order; the association was strongest for first-born siblings (OR: 1.72; 95% CI: 0.86-3.42) and negative for later-born siblings (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.31-1.25), which may be because of increases in cell phone use with later birth year. Sibling analysis can be a powerful tool for (partially) accounting for confounding by invariant unmeasured within-family factors, but it cannot account for uncontrolled confounding by varying family-level factors, such as those that vary with time and birth order.

  8. Birth Order and Sibling Sex Ratio in a Population with High Fertility: Are Turkish Male to Female Transsexuals Different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, Ali; Bozkurt, Ozlem Hekim; Sonmez, Ipek

    2015-07-01

    Western studies have consistently found that androphilic (sexually attracted to men) male-to-female transsexuals have a later birth order and a relative excess of brothers compared with appropriate control participants. However, non-Western studies on birth order and sibling sex ratio in androphilic males (transsexual or non-transsexual) are rare. The objective of the study was to test the hypothesis that androphilic male-to-female transsexuals have a late birth order and a relative excess of brothers in a non-Western culture with a higher fertility rate. The participants were 60 androphilic male-to-female transsexuals and 61 male heterosexual controls. The transsexual participants had significantly more older brothers than the control participants, but the groups did not differ in their numbers of older sisters, younger brothers, or younger sisters. The foregoing pattern is usually referred to as the "fraternal birth order effect." Slater's and Berglin's Indexes both showed that the mean birth order of the control participants was very close to that expected from a random sample drawn from a demographically stable population whereas the mean birth order of the transsexual participants was later. A measure of sibship composition, brothers/all siblings, showed that the transsexual group had a higher proportion of male siblings compared with the control group. In conclusion, the present study found that Turkish androphilic male-to-female transsexuals show the same high fraternal birth order that has been found in comparable androphilic samples in Western Europe, North America, and the South Pacific, which suggests a common underlying biological causal mechanism.

  9. Birth order and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in multiplex families from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiwei; Coghill, Anna E; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Hsu, Wan-Lun; Lou, Pei-Jen; Wang, Cheng-Ping; Yu, Kelly J; Niwa, Shelley; Brotzman, Michelle; Ye, Weimin; Chen, Chien-Jen; Hildesheim, Allan

    2016-12-01

    A small proportion of individuals infected with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) develop nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Timing of initial exposure could alter immunological responses to primary EBV infection and explain variation in cancer risk later in life. We measured early life family structure as a proxy for the timing of primary EBV infection to examine whether earlier age at infection alters NPC risk. We utilized data from 480 NPC cases and 1,291 unaffected siblings from Taiwanese NPC multiplex families (≥ 2 family members with NPC, N = 2,921). Information on birth order within the family was derived from questionnaires. We utilized logistic regression models to examine the association between birth order and NPC, accounting for correlations between relatives. Within these high-risk families, older siblings had an elevated risk of NPC. Compared with being a first-born child, the risk (95% CIs) of NPC associated with a birth order of two, three, four and five or more was 1.00 (0.71, 1.40), 0.88 (0.62, 1.24), 0.74 (0.53, 1.05) and 0.60 (0.43, 0.82), respectively (P for trend = 0.002). We observed no associations between NPC risk and the number of younger siblings or cumulative infant-years exposure. These associations were not modified by underlying genetic predisposition or family size. We observed that early life family structure was important for NPC risk in NPC multiplex families, with older siblings having a greater risk of disease. Future studies focusing on more direct measures of the immune response to EBV in early childhood could elucidate the underlying mechanisms. © 2016 UICC.

  10. Blind adolescents' birth order as a determinant of their perception of family functioning dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanimirović Dragana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available While other theoreticians of personality stressed only the influence of parents in early childhood, Adler paid particular attention to a psychological position of a child among brothers/sisters. There is some empirical evidence that birth order may influence vocational choice, characteristic style of interacting with others, affiliation, anxiety, perception of parents' authority, and even intellectual capabilities. Visual impairment of a family member affects a family system and a sibling subsystem in a specific way. The goal of the research was to determine whether birth order influences perception of dimensions of family functioning in families with a blind adolescent and in families with an adolescent of typical development. The sample included 32 blind (experimental group and 32 subjects of typical development (control group aged 14 to 26, who lived in complete families with two or three children and without serious personal, marrital or family problems. The groups were paired by sex, age, professional status and birth order of adolescents, number of children in the family, type of family (nuclear; extended and environment (rural; urban. A Questionnaire of socio-demographic information and a Questionnaire of situation and family relationships RADIR by Knežević were applied for data collection. First-borns made lower appraisals of each dimension of family functioning than second-born respondents. There were no statistically significant differences in the control group. Differences in the experimental group were statistically significant in the following dimensions: Activity, Democracy and Structuring time and activity. Thus, the results show that first-born child's 'dethronement' has more effect if it is associated with blindness. This can be explained by fact that it is more difficult for a blind first-born child to catch up with a second-born 'rival'.

  11. Review and theory of handedness, birth order, and homosexuality in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Ray

    2008-01-01

    Research has repeatedly shown that older brothers increase the odds of homosexuality in later-born males. This phenomenon has been called the fraternal birth order effect. The most highly developed explanation of this phenomenon is the maternal immune hypothesis, which proposes that the fraternal birth order effect reflects the progressive immunisation of some mothers to male-specific antigens by each succeeding male foetus and the concomitantly increasing effects of anti-male antibodies on the sexual differentiation of the brain in each succeeding male foetus. Recent studies indicate that older brothers increase the odds of homosexuality in right-handed males but not in non-right-handed males. The present article explores how the maternal immune hypothesis might be extended or modified to account for the apparent interaction of older brothers and handedness. Two possibilities are considered: (1) non-right-handed foetuses are insensitive to the presence of maternal anti-male antibodies, and (2) mothers of non-right-handed foetuses do not produce anti-male antibodies.

  12. Birth order and ratio of brothers to sisters in Spanish transsexuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Gil, Esther; Esteva, Isabel; Carrasco, Rocío; Almaraz, M Cruz; Pasaro, Eduardo; Salamero, Manel; Guillamon, Antonio

    2011-06-01

    Three Western studies have shown that male-to-female (MF) homosexual transsexuals tend to be born later than their siblings and to come from sibships with more brothers than sisters. The objective of this study was to determine whether these variables would be replicated in 530 MF and female-to-male (FM) Spanish transsexuals according to sexual orientation. The results showed that MF homosexual transsexuals had significantly more older brothers than the non-homosexual MF group. Compared with the expected rates in the general population, birth order was significantly higher in both MF (Slater's Index = 0.59; Fraternal Index = 0.61; Sororal Index = 0.58) and FM homosexual transsexuals (Slater's Index = 0.65; Fraternal Index = 0.68; Sororal Index = 0.67), and sibling sex ratio was significantly higher than expected in homosexual MF (sex ratio = 0.55) but not in homosexual FM transsexuals. No significant differences were found in the non-homosexual subgroups. The replication of the later birth order and sibling sex-ratio effect in MF homosexual transsexuals corroborates previous findings in a variety of groups from different cultures and may suggest a common mechanism underlying the etiology of transsexualism.

  13. Birth Order and Participation in School Sports and Other Extracurricular Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Daniel I.; Lopez, Elizabeth; Averett, Susan L.; Argys, Laura M.

    2008-01-01

    Argys, L.M., Rees, D.I., Averett S.L., & Witoonchart, B. (2006). Birth order and risky adolescent behavior. "Economic Inquiry", 44(2), 215-233 demonstrated that a strong link exists between birth order and adolescent risky behavior. Using data on 10th graders from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, we extend the work of Argys et…

  14. Do Birth Order, Family Size and Gender Affect Arithmetic Achievement in Elementary School?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desoete, Annemie

    2008-01-01

    Introduction: For decades birth order and gender differences have attracted research attention. Method: Birth order, family size and gender, and the relationship with arithmetic achievement is studied among 1152 elementary school children (540 girls, 612 boys) in Flanders. Children were matched on socioeconomic status of the parents and…

  15. Impact of Birth Order on Procrastination among College Students in Eldoret Town

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Chege Kimani

    2015-01-01

    The study sought to investigate the impact of birth order on procrastination among college students in Eldoret town. The study sought to achieve the following objectives: (1) to find out the prevalence of procrastination among college students in Eldoret town, (2) to find out the relationship between birth order on procrastination among college…

  16. Twin's Birth-Order Differences in Height and Body Mass Index From Birth to Old Age: A Pooled Study of 26 Twin Cohorts Participating in the CODATwins Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Yoshie; Jelenkovic, Aline; Sund, Reijo; Sung, Joohon; Hopper, John L; Ooki, Syuichi; Heikkilä, Kauko; Aaltonen, Sari; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Willemsen, Gonneke; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Toos C E M; Saudino, Kimberly J; Cutler, Tessa L; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Wardle, Jane; Llewellyn, Clare H; Fisher, Abigail; He, Mingguang; Ding, Xiaohu; Bjerregaard-Andersen, Morten; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Sodemann, Morten; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Jeong, Hoe-Uk; Knafo-Noam, Ariel; Mankuta, David; Abramson, Lior; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Harris, Jennifer R; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Craig, Jeffrey M; Saffery, Richard; Ji, Fuling; Ning, Feng; Pang, Zengchang; Dubois, Lise; Boivin, Michel; Brendgen, Mara; Dionne, Ginette; Vitaro, Frank; Martin, Nicholas G; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Pedersen, Nancy L; Aslan, Anna K Dahl; Tynelius, Per; Haworth, Claire M A; Plomin, Robert; Rebato, Esther; Rose, Richard J; Goldberg, Jack H; Rasmussen, Finn; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Boomsma, Dorret I; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

    2016-04-01

    We analyzed birth order differences in means and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins from infancy to old age. The data were derived from the international CODATwins database. The total number of height and BMI measures from 0.5 to 79.5 years of age was 397,466. As expected, first-born twins had greater birth weight than second-born twins. With respect to height, first-born twins were slightly taller than second-born twins in childhood. After adjusting the results for birth weight, the birth order differences decreased and were no longer statistically significant. First-born twins had greater BMI than the second-born twins over childhood and adolescence. After adjusting the results for birth weight, birth order was still associated with BMI until 12 years of age. No interaction effect between birth order and zygosity was found. Only limited evidence was found that birth order influenced variances of height or BMI. The results were similar among boys and girls and also in MZ and DZ twins. Overall, the differences in height and BMI between first- and second-born twins were modest even in early childhood, while adjustment for birth weight reduced the birth order differences but did not remove them for BMI.

  17. Birth order and number of siblings and their association with overweight and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meller, Fernanda Oliveira; Loret de Mola, Christian; Assunção, Maria Cecília Formoso; Schäfer, Antônio Augusto; Dahly, Darren Lawrence; Barros, Fernando Celso

    2018-02-01

    The effect of both birth order and number of siblings on overweight and/or obesity has not been determined. Birth order and sibsize have been mathematically coupled to overweight and/or obesity, but thus far their respective effects have been estimated separately. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the effects of both birth order and number of siblings on the risk of overweight/obesity. The electronic databases MEDLINE, Social Science, SocINDEX, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, and Academic Search Complete were searched systematically. Titles and abstracts of 1698 records were examined. After 1504 records were excluded, 2 authors independently assessed the full text of all remaining papers (n = 194); disagreements were resolved by discussion. A standardized form for assessment of study quality and evidence synthesis was used to extract data from the included studies. Twenty studies were included in the systematic review, 14 of which were included in the meta-analysis. Meta-analyses showed that lower (vs higher) birth order and smaller (vs greater) number of siblings were associated with overweight and/or obesity, with ORs of 1.47 (95%CI, 1.12-1.93) and 1.46 (95%CI, 1.17-1.84), respectively. However, among the 9 studies that attempted to separate the effects of birth order and number of siblings in the same analysis, a higher risk of overweight/obesity was consistently found among individuals without siblings than among those with 1 or more siblings, rather than among firstborns more generally. The results show that both lower birth order and lower number of siblings are associated with risk of overweight/obesity, which suggests that only children are at a slightly increased risk of overweight/obesity. PROSPERO registration number CRD42014015135. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Life Sciences Institute. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Number of siblings, birth order, and childhood overweight: a population-based cross-sectional study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochiai, Hirotaka; Shirasawa, Takako; Ohtsu, Tadahiro; Nishimura, Rimei; Morimoto, Aya; Obuchi, Ritsuko; Hoshino, Hiromi; Tajima, Naoko; Kokaze, Akatsuki

    2012-09-11

    Although several studies have investigated the relationship between the number of siblings or birth order and childhood overweight, the results are inconsistent. In addition, little is known about the impact of having older or younger siblings on overweight among elementary schoolchildren. The present population-based study investigated the relationship of the number of siblings and birth order with childhood overweight and evaluated the impact of having younger or older siblings on childhood overweight among elementary schoolchildren in Japan. Subjects comprised fourth-grade schoolchildren (age, 9-10 years) in Ina Town during 1999-2009. Information about subjects' sex, age, birth weight, birth order, number of siblings, lifestyle, and parents' age, height, and weight was collected by a self-administered questionnaire, while measurements of subjects' height and weight were done at school. Childhood overweight was defined according to age- and sex-specific cut-off points proposed by the International Obesity Task Force. A logistic regression model was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of "number of siblings" or "birth order" for overweight. Data from 4026 children were analyzed. Only children (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.45-3.14) and youngest children (1.56, 1.13-2.16) significantly increased ORs for overweight compared with middle children. A larger number of siblings decreased the OR for overweight (P for trend < 0.001). Although there was no statistically significant relationship between a larger number of older siblings and overweight, a larger number of younger siblings resulted in a lower OR for overweight (P for trend < 0.001). Being an only or youngest child was associated with childhood overweight, and having a larger number of younger siblings was negatively associated with overweight. The present study suggests that public health interventions to prevent childhood overweight need to focus on children from these

  19. Number of siblings, birth order, and childhood overweight: a population-based cross-sectional study in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ochiai Hirotaka

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although several studies have investigated the relationship between the number of siblings or birth order and childhood overweight, the results are inconsistent. In addition, little is known about the impact of having older or younger siblings on overweight among elementary schoolchildren. The present population-based study investigated the relationship of the number of siblings and birth order with childhood overweight and evaluated the impact of having younger or older siblings on childhood overweight among elementary schoolchildren in Japan. Methods Subjects comprised fourth-grade schoolchildren (age, 9–10 years in Ina Town during 1999–2009. Information about subjects’ sex, age, birth weight, birth order, number of siblings, lifestyle, and parents’ age, height, and weight was collected by a self-administered questionnaire, while measurements of subjects’ height and weight were done at school. Childhood overweight was defined according to age- and sex-specific cut-off points proposed by the International Obesity Task Force. A logistic regression model was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI of "number of siblings" or "birth order" for overweight. Results Data from 4026 children were analyzed. Only children (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.45-3.14 and youngest children (1.56, 1.13-2.16 significantly increased ORs for overweight compared with middle children. A larger number of siblings decreased the OR for overweight (P for trend P for trend  Conclusions Being an only or youngest child was associated with childhood overweight, and having a larger number of younger siblings was negatively associated with overweight. The present study suggests that public health interventions to prevent childhood overweight need to focus on children from these family backgrounds.

  20. Maternal Age at Child Birth, Birth Order, and Suicide at a Young Age: A Sibling Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Bjerkeset, Ottar; Vatten, Lars Johan; Janszky, Imre; Gunnell, David; Romundstad, Pål Richard

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have reported strong associations between birth order, maternal age, and suicide, but these results might have been confounded by socioeconomic and other factors. To control for such factors, we compared suicide risk between siblings and studied how maternal age at child birth and birth order influenced risk in a cohort study of 1,690,306 Norwegians born in 1967–1996 who were followed up until 2008. Using stratified Cox regression, we compared suicide risk within families wit...

  1. Birth order and Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Pooled Analysis from Five U.S. States

    OpenAIRE

    Von Behren, Julie; Spector, Logan G.; Mueller, Beth A.; Carozza, Susan E.; Chow, Eric J.; Fox, Erin E.; Horel, Scott; Johnson, Kimberly J.; McLaughlin, Colleen; Puumala, Susan E.; Ross, Julie A.; Reynolds, Peggy

    2010-01-01

    The causes of childhood cancers are largely unknown. Birth order has been used as a proxy for prenatal and postnatal exposures, such as frequency of infections and in utero hormone exposures. We investigated the association between birth order and childhood cancers in a pooled case-control dataset. The subjects were drawn from population-based registries of cancers and births in California, Minnesota, New York, Texas, and Washington. We included 17,672 cases less than 15 years of age who were...

  2. Birth order and risk of childhood cancer: a pooled analysis from five US States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Behren, Julie; Spector, Logan G; Mueller, Beth A; Carozza, Susan E; Chow, Eric J; Fox, Erin E; Horel, Scott; Johnson, Kimberly J; McLaughlin, Colleen; Puumala, Susan E; Ross, Julie A; Reynolds, Peggy

    2011-06-01

    The causes of childhood cancers are largely unknown. Birth order has been used as a proxy for prenatal and postnatal exposures, such as frequency of infections and in utero hormone exposures. We investigated the association between birth order and childhood cancers in a pooled case-control dataset. The subjects were drawn from population-based registries of cancers and births in California, Minnesota, New York, Texas and Washington. We included 17,672 cases confidence intervals using logistic regression, adjusted for sex, birth year, maternal race, maternal age, multiple birth, gestational age and birth weight. Overall, we found an inverse relationship between childhood cancer risk and birth order. For children in the fourth or higher birth order category compared to first-born children, the adjusted OR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.93) for all cancers combined. When we examined risks by cancer type, a decreasing risk with increasing birth order was seen in the central nervous system tumors, neuroblastoma, bilateral retinoblastoma, Wilms tumor and rhabdomyosarcoma. We observed increased risks with increasing birth order for acute myeloid leukemia but a slight decrease in risk for acute lymphoid leukemia. These risk estimates were based on a very large sample size, which allowed us to examine rare cancer types with greater statistical power than in most previous studies, however the biologic mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Copyright © 2010 UICC.

  3. Homosexuality, birth order, and evolution: toward an equilibrium reproductive economics of homosexuality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, E M

    2000-02-01

    The survival of a human predisposition for homosexuality can be explained by sexual orientation being a polygenetic trait that is influenced by a number of genes. During development these shift male brain development in the female direction. Inheritance of several such alleles produces homosexuality. Single alleles make for greater sensitivity, empathy, tendermindedness, and kindness. These traits make heterosexual carriers of the genes better fathers and more attractive mates. There is a balanced polymorphism in which the feminizing effect of these alleles in heterosexuals offsets the adverse effects (on reproductive success) of these alleles' contribution to homosexuality. A similar effect probably occurs for genes that can produce lesbianism in females. The whole system survives because it serves to provide a high degree of variability among the personalities of offspring, providing the genotype with diversification and reducing competition among offspring for the same niches. An allele with a large effect can survive in these circumstances in males, but it is less likely to survive in females. The birth order effect on homosexuality is probably a by-product of a biological mechanism that shifts personalities more in the feminine direction in the later born sons, reducing the probability of these sons engaging in unproductive competition with each other.

  4. Fraternal birth order and the maternal immune hypothesis of male homosexuality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, R

    2001-09-01

    In men, sexual orientation correlates with an individual's number of older brothers, each additional older brother increasing the odds of homosexuality by approximately 33%. It has been hypothesized that this fraternal birth order effect reflects the progressive immunization of some mothers to Y-linked minor histocompatibility antigens (H-Y antigens) by each succeeding male fetus and the concomitantly increasing effects of such maternal immunization on the future sexual orientation of each succeeding male fetus. According to this hypothesis, anti-H-Y antibodies produced by the mother pass through the placental barrier to the fetus and affect aspects of sexual differentiation in the fetal brain. This explanation is consistent with a variety of evidence, including the apparent irrelevance of older sisters to the sexual orientation of later born males, the probable involvement of H-Y antigen in the development of sex-typical traits, and the detrimental effects of immunization of female mice to H-Y antigen on the reproductive performance of subsequent male offspring. The maternal immune hypothesis might also explain the recent finding that heterosexual males with older brothers weigh less at birth than heterosexual males with older sisters and homosexual males with older brothers weigh even less than heterosexual males with older brothers. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

  5. Fraternal Birth Order, Family Size, and Male Homosexuality: Meta-Analysis of Studies Spanning 25 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Ray

    2018-01-01

    The fraternal birth order effect is the tendency for older brothers to increase the odds of homosexuality in later-born males. This study compared the strength of the effect in subjects from small versus large families and in homosexual subjects with masculine versus feminine gender identities. Meta-analyses were conducted on 30 homosexual and 30 heterosexual groups from 26 studies, totaling 7140 homosexual and 12,837 heterosexual males. The magnitude of the fraternal birth order effect was measured with a novel variable, the Older Brothers Odds Ratio, computed as (homosexuals' older brothers ÷ homosexuals' other siblings) ÷ (heterosexuals' older brothers ÷ heterosexuals' other siblings), where other siblings = older sisters + younger brothers + younger sisters. An Older Brothers Odds Ratio of 1.00 represents no effect of sexual orientation; values over 1.00 are positive evidence for the fraternal birth order effect. Evidence for the reliability of the effect was consistent. The Older Brothers Odds Ratio was significantly >1.00 in 20 instances, >1.00 although not significantly in nine instances, and nonsignificantly <1.00 in 1 instance. The pooled Older Brothers Odds Ratio for all samples was 1.47, p < .00001. Subgroups analyses showed that the magnitude of the effect was significantly greater in the 12 feminine or transgender homosexual groups than in the other 18 homosexual groups. There was no evidence that the magnitude of the effect differs according to family size.

  6. Maternal age at child birth, birth order, and suicide at a young age: a sibling comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Bjerkeset, Ottar; Vatten, Lars; Janszky, Imre; Gunnell, David; Romundstad, Pål

    2013-04-01

    Previous studies have reported strong associations between birth order, maternal age, and suicide, but these results might have been confounded by socioeconomic and other factors. To control for such factors, we compared suicide risk between siblings and studied how maternal age at child birth and birth order influenced risk in a cohort study of 1,690,306 Norwegians born in 1967-1996 who were followed up until 2008. Using stratified Cox regression, we compared suicide risk within families with 2 or more children in which one died from suicide. Altogether, 3,005 suicides occurred over a mean follow-up period of 15 years; 2,458 of these suicides occurred among 6,741 siblings within families of 2 or more siblings. Among siblings, a higher position in the birth order was positively associated with risk; each increase in birth order was associated with a 46% (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.29, 1.66) higher risk of suicide. For each 10-year increase in maternal age at child birth, the offspring's suicide risk was reduced by 57% (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.43, 95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.62). Our study suggests that confounding due to familial factors is not likely to explain the associations of birth order and maternal age at child birth with suicide risk.

  7. IMPACT OF PRENATAL MATERNAL FACTORS AND BIRTH ORDER ON THE ANTHROPOMETRIC STATUS OF NEWBORNS IN IRAN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheirouri, Sorayya; Alizadeh, Mohammad

    2017-03-01

    This cross-sectional study was carried out to capture possible maternal factors affecting newborns' anthropometric measurements. Data were collected from eight public health centres and referral university hospital records in Tabriz and Heriss districts, north-west Iran, for 807 mother-neonate pairs delivering live singleton births and their offspring during the two years up to August 2014. The incidence of low birth weight (LBW) was 5.1%. A close correlation was found between maternal anthropometry and birth order with neonatal anthropometric data. Birth order and maternal height and body mass index (BMI) positively affected neonates' birth size (weight, length and head circumference). The rate of LBW was significantly higher for older (≥35 years), taller (≥170 cm), underweight (BMIbirth neonates. The results indicate that maternal anthropometric indices, age, iron intake and birth order influence the risk of LBW in newborns.

  8. Associations of scores on the White-Campbell Psychological Birth Order Inventory and the Kern Lifestyle Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J; Campbell, L; Stewart, A

    1995-12-01

    This study investigated the relations among psychological birth order, actual birth order, and lifestyle. The study also further examined the convergent validity of the White-Campbell Psychological Birth Order Inventory. This inventory and Kern's Lifestyle Scale were administered to 126 individuals in a southeastern urban university. The several analyses of variance and canonical correlation analysis (1) supported a stronger relationship between psychological birth order and lifestyle than between actual birth order and lifestyle, (2) identified differential relationships between particular birth-order positions and lifestyle scales that were predicted and in accord with Adlerian theory, and (3) further supported the validity of the inventory. The results reaffirmed the lifestyle pattern and birth-order characterizations of Adlerian theory.

  9. Sibling Sex Ratio and Birth Order in Early-Onset Gender Dysphoric Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Schagen, Sebastian E. E.; Delemarre-van de Waal, Henriette A.; Blanchard, Ray; Cohen-Kettenis, Peggy T.

    2011-01-01

    Several sibship-related variables have been studied extensively in sexual orientation research, especially in men. Sibling sex ratio refers to the ratio of brothers to sisters in the aggregate sibships of a group of probands. Birth order refers to the probands’ position (e.g., first-born, middle-born, last-born) within their sibships. Fraternal birth order refers to their position among male siblings only. Such research was extended in this study to a large group of early-onset gender dysphor...

  10. The influence of birth order and number of siblings on adolescent body composition: evidence from a Brazilian birth cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira Meller, Fernanda; Assunção, M C F; Schäfer, A A; de Mola, C L; Barros, A J D; Dahly, D L; Barros, F C

    2015-07-14

    The aim of this study was to estimate the association between birth order and number of siblings with body composition in adolescents. Data are from a birth cohort study conducted in Pelotas, Brazil. At the age of 18 years, 4563 adolescents were located, of whom 4106 were interviewed (follow-up rate 81.3 %). Of these, 3974 had complete data and were thus included in our analysis. The variables used in the analysis were measured during the perinatal period, or at 11, 15 and/or 18 years of age. Body composition at 18 years was collected by air displacement plethysmography (BOD POD®). Crude and adjusted analyses of the association between birth order and number of siblings with body composition were performed using linear regression. All analyses were stratified by the adolescent sex. The means of BMI, fat mass index and fat-free mass index among adolescents were 23.4 (sd 4.5) kg/m², 6.1 (sd 3.9) kg/m² and 17.3 (sd 2.5) kg/m², respectively. In adjusted models, the total siblings remained inversely associated with fat mass index (β = - 0.37 z-scores, 95 % CI - 0.52, - 0.23) and BMI in boys (β = - 0.39 z-scores, 95 % CI - 0.55, - 0.22). Fat-free mass index was related to the total siblings in girls (β = 0.06 z-scores, 95 % CI - 0.04, 0.17). This research has found that number of total siblings, and not birth order, is related to the fat mass index, fat-free mass index and BMI in adolescents. It suggests the need for early prevention of obesity or fat mass accumulation in only children.

  11. Sexual orientation, fraternal birth order, and the maternal immune hypothesis: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaert, Anthony F; Skorska, Malvina

    2011-04-01

    In 1996, psychologists Ray Blanchard and Anthony Bogaert found evidence that gay men have a greater number of older brothers than do heterosexual men. This "fraternal birth order" (FBO) effect has been replicated numerous times, including in non-Western samples. More recently, strong evidence has been found that the FBO effect is of prenatal origin. Although there is no direct support for the exact prenatal mechanism, the most plausible explanation may be immunological in origin, i.e., a mother develops an immune reaction against a substance important in male fetal development during pregnancy, and that this immune effect becomes increasingly likely with each male gestation. This immune effect is hypothesized to cause an alteration in (some) later born males' prenatal brain development. The target of the immune response may be molecules (i.e., Y-linked proteins) on the surface of male fetal brain cells, including in sites of the anterior hypothalamus, which has been linked to sexual orientation in other research. Antibodies might bind to these molecules and thus alter their role in typical sexual differentiation, leading some later born males to be attracted to men as opposed to women. Here we review evidence in favor of this hypothesis, including recent research showing that mothers of boys develop an immune response to one Y-linked protein (i.e., H-Y antigen; SMCY) important in male fetal development, and that this immune effect becomes increasingly likely with each additional boy to which a mother gives birth. We also discuss other Y-linked proteins that may be relevant if this hypothesis is correct. Finally, we discuss issues in testing the maternal immune hypothesis of FBO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Socio-Economic Status And Birth-Order As Correlates Of Women ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated socio-economic status and birth-order as correlates of women spiritual help-seeking behavior. Five hundred women help-seekers were sampled from 10 spiritual houses within Ibadan metropolis. Their age ranged between 17-70 years. Fifty percent (50 %,) i.e. 250 of the total sample were singles; ...

  13. Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: a pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardwell, Chris R; Stene, Lars C; Joner, Geir

    2011-01-01

    The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous...

  14. Sibling Sex Ratio and Birth Order in Early-Onset Gender Dysphoric Adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schagen, S.E.E.; Delemarre-van de Waal, H.A.; Blanchard, R.; Cohen-Kettenis, P.T.

    2012-01-01

    Several sibship-related variables have been studied extensively in sexual orientation research, especially in men. Sibling sex ratio refers to the ratio of brothers to sisters in the aggregate sibships of a group of probands. Birth order refers to the probands' position (e.g., first-born,

  15. Personality, birth order and attachment styles as related to various types of jealousy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buunk, Abraham (Bram)

    1997-01-01

    The relationships between jealousy, personality, attachment styles and birth order were examined in a sample of 100 Dutch men and 100 Dutch women. Three types of jealousy were examined: reactive jealousy (a negative response to the emotional or sexual involvement of the partner with someone else),

  16. Intelligence Test Scores and Birth Order among Young Norwegian Men (Conscripts) Analyzed within and between Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerkedal, Tor; Kristensen, Petter; Skjeret, Geir A.; Brevik, John I.

    2007-01-01

    The present paper reports the results of a within and between family analysis of the relation between birth order and intelligence. The material comprises more than a quarter of a million test scores for intellectual performance of Norwegian male conscripts recorded during 1984-2004. Conscripts, mostly 18-19 years of age, were born to women for…

  17. Relationship of birth order and the marketing-related variable of materialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemanek, J E; Claxton, R P; Zemanek, W H

    2000-04-01

    The relationship between the birth order and materialism scores was investigated using materialism conceptualized as a consumer value. Data were collected from 275 alumni of a major southwestern university. The analysis indicated that first-borns in this sample scored significantly lower on materialism than younger siblings.

  18. Self-efficacy, emotional intelligence and birth order as predictors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Self-efficacy, emotional intelligence and birth order as predictors of academic performance among secondary school students in Kajola Local Government ... standardized scales and the data obtained was analyzed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) and Multiple Regression Statistical analysis of SPSS.

  19. Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: a pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardwell, Chris R; Stene, Lars C; Joner, Geir

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of ...

  20. Birth Order and Injury-Related Infant Mortality in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrens, Katherine A; Rossen, Lauren M; Thoma, Marie E; Warner, Margaret; Simon, Alan E

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of death during the first year of life due to injury, such as unintentional injury and homicide, by birth order in the U.S. Using national birth cohort-linked birth-infant death data (births, 2000-2010; deaths, 2000-2011), risks of infant mortality due to injury in second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth or later-born singleton infants were compared with first-born singleton infants. Risk ratios were estimated using log-binomial models adjusted for maternal age, marital status, race/ethnicity, and education. The statistical analyses were conducted in 2016. Approximately 40%, 32%, 16%, 7%, and 4% of singleton live births were first, second, third, fourth, and fifth or later born, respectively. From 2000 to 2011, a total of 15,866 infants died as a result of injury (approximately 1,442 deaths per year). Compared with first-born infants (2.9 deaths per 10,000 live births), second or later-born infants were at increased risk of infant mortality due to injury (second, 3.6 deaths; third, 4.2 deaths; fourth, 4.8 deaths; fifth or later, 6.4 deaths). The corresponding adjusted risk ratios were as follows: second, 1.84 (95% CI=1.76, 1.91); third, 2.42 (95% CI=2.30, 2.54); fourth, 2.96 (95% CI=2.77, 3.16); and fifth or later, 4.26 (95% CI=3.96, 4.57). Singleton infants born second or later were at increased risk of mortality due to injury during their first year of life in the U.S. This study's findings highlight the importance of investigating underlying mechanisms behind this increased risk. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  1. Proportion of homosexual men who owe their sexual orientation to fraternal birth order: An estimate based on two national probability samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Ray; Bogaert, Anthony F

    2004-01-01

    Homosexuality in men correlates with an individual's number of older brothers, greater numbers of older brothers being associated with a greater probability of homosexuality. There are reasons to believe that this relationship is causal rather than merely statistical, that is, that older brothers produce the increase in the probability of homosexuality for later-born males. It is possible, under this assumption, to estimate the proportion of homosexual men who can attribute their sexual orientation to their birth order among their brothers (fraternal birth order). This statistic, the population attributable fraction (PAF), was computed on the combined archival data of 2,256 heterosexual and 71 homosexual men examined in survey studies of sexual behavior in the UK and the USA. The PAF was 28.6%, with 95% confidence limits of 14.8% and 48.0%. These limits encompass the PAF of 15.1% previously estimated with a Canadian sample. The results indicate that the proportion of homosexual men whose sexual orientation is attributable to fraternal birth order constitutes a minority, but not a negligible minority, of all homosexual men. The fraternal birth order effect may reflect the progressive immunization of some mothers to Y-linked antigens by each succeeding male fetus, and the concomitantly increasing effects of antimale antibodies on the sexual differentiation of the brain in each succeeding male fetus. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  2. Family size, birth order, and intelligence in a large South American sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velandia, W; Grandon, G M; Page, E B

    1978-01-01

    The confluence theory, which hypothesizes a relationship between intellectual development birth order, and family size, was examined in a colombian study of more than 36,000 college applicants. The results of the study did not support the confluence theory. The confluence theory states that the intellectual development of a child is related to average mental age of the members of his family at the time of his birth. The mental age of the parents is always assigned a value of 30 and siblings are given scores equivalent to their chronological age at the birth of the subject. Therefore, the average mental age of family members for a 1st born child is 30, or 60 divided by 2. If a subject is born into a family consisting of 2 parents and a 6-year old sibling, the average mental age of family members tends, therefore, to decrease with each birth order. The hypothesis derived from the confluence theory states that there is a positive relationship between average mental age of a subject's family and the subject's performance on intelligence tests. In the Colombian study, data on family size, birth order and socioeconomic status was derived from college application forms. Intelligence test scores for each subject was obtained from college entrance exams. The mental age of each applicant's family at the time of the applicant's birth was calculated. Multiple correlation analysis and path analysis were used to assess the relationship. Results were 1) the test scores of subjects from families with 2,3,4, and 5 children were higher than test scores of the 1st born subjects; 2) the rank order of intelligence by family size was 3,4,5,2,6,1 instead of the hypothesized 1,2,3,4,5,6; and 3) only 1% of the variability in test scores was explained by the variables of birth order and family size. Further analysis indicated that socioeconomic status was a far more powerful explanatory variable than family size.

  3. Complexities of sibling analysis when exposures and outcomes change with time and birth order

    OpenAIRE

    Sudan, M; Kheifets, LI; Arah, OA; Divan, HA; Olsen, J

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the complexities of performing a sibling analysis with a re-examination of associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems observed previously in the Danish National Birth Cohort. Children (52,680; including 5441 siblings) followed up to age 7 were included. We examined differences in exposures and behavioral problems between siblings and non-siblings and by birth order and birth year. We estimated associations between cell phone exposures and b...

  4. Birth order and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic carriers of hepatitis B virus: a case-control study in The Gambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimakawa, Yusuke; Lemoine, Maud; Bottomley, Christian; Njai, Harr Freeya; Ndow, Gibril; Jatta, Abdoulie; Tamba, Saydiba; Bojang, Lamin; Taal, Makie; Nyan, Ousman; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Njie, Ramou; Thursz, Mark; Hall, Andrew J

    2015-10-01

    Early age at infection with Hepatitis B virus (HBV) increases the risk of chronic infection. Moreover, early HBV infection may further independently increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond its effect on chronicity. The distribution of birth order, a proxy for mode and timing of HBV transmission, was compared in The Gambia between hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive HCC cases recruited from hospitals (n = 72) and two HBsAg-positive control groups without HCC: population-based controls from a community HBV screening (n = 392) and hospital-based controls (n = 63). HCC risk decreased with increasing birth order in the population-based case-control analysis. Using first birth order as the reference, the odds ratios were 0.52 (95% CI: 0.20-1.36), 0.52 (0.17-1.56), 0.57 (0.16-2.05) and 0.14 (0.03-0.64) for second, third, fourth and greater than fourth birth order respectively (P = 0.01). A similar inverse association was observed in the hospital-based case-control comparison (P = 0.04). Compared to controls, HCC cases had earlier birth order, a proxy for young maternal age and maternal HBV viraemia at birth. This finding suggests that in chronic HBV carriers perinatal mother-to-infant transmission may increase HCC risk more than horizontal transmission. Providing HBV vaccine within 24 h of birth to interrupt perinatal transmission might reduce the incidence of HCC in The Gambia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Detecting and correcting for family size differences in the study of sexual orientation and fraternal birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Ray

    2014-07-01

    The term "fraternal birth order effect" denotes a statistical relation most commonly expressed in one of two ways: Older brothers increase the odds of homosexuality in later born males or, alternatively, homosexual men tend to have more older brothers than do heterosexual men. The demonstrability of this effect depends partly on the adequate matching of the homosexual and heterosexual study groups with respect to mean family size. If the homosexual group has too many siblings, relative to the heterosexual group, the homosexual group will tend to show the expected excess of older brothers but may also show an excess of other sibling-types (most likely older sisters); if the homosexual group has too few siblings, it will tend not to show a difference in number of older brothers but instead may show a deficiency of other sibling-types (most likely younger brothers and younger sisters). In the first part of this article, these consequences are illustrated with deliberately mismatched groups selected from archived data sets. In the second part, two slightly different methods for transforming raw sibling data are presented. These are intended to produce family-size-corrected variables for each of the four original sibling parameters (older brothers, older sisters, younger brothers, and younger sisters). Both versions are shown to render the fraternal birth order effect observable in the deliberately mismatched groups. In the third part of the article, fraternal birth order studies published in the last 5 years were surveyed for failures to find a statistically significant excess of older brothers for the homosexual group. Two such studies were found in the nine examined. In both cases, the collective findings for older sisters, younger brothers, and younger sisters suggested that the mean family size of the homosexual groups was smaller than that of the heterosexual comparison groups. Furthermore, the individual findings for the four classes of siblings resembled those

  6. Fraternal Birth Order and Extreme Right-Handedness as Predictors of Sexual Orientation and Gender Nonconformity in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishida, Mariana; Rahman, Qazi

    2015-07-01

    The present study explored whether there were relationships between number of older brothers, handedness, recalled childhood gender nonconformity (CGN), and sexual orientation in men. We used data from previous British studies conducted in our laboratory (N = 1,011 heterosexual men and 921 gay men). These men had completed measures of demographic variables, number and sex of siblings, CGN, and the Edinburgh Handedness Inventory. The results did not replicate the fraternal birth order effect. However, gay men had fewer "other siblings" than heterosexual men (even after controlling for the stopping-rule and family size). In a sub-sample (425 gay men and 478 heterosexual men) with data available on both sibling sex composition and handedness scores, gay men were found to show a significantly greater likelihood of extreme right-handedness and non-right-handedness compared to heterosexual men. There were no significant effects of sibling sex composition in this sub-sample. In a further sub-sample (N = 487) with data available on sibling sex composition, handedness, and CGN, we found that men with feminine scores on CGN were more extremely right-handed and had fewer other-siblings compared to masculine scoring men. Mediation analysis revealed that handedness was associated with sexual orientation directly and also indirectly through the mediating factor of CGN. We were unable to replicate the fraternal birth order effect in our archived dataset but there was evidence for a relationship among handedness, sexual orientation, and CGN. These data help narrow down the number of possible neurodevelopmental pathways leading to variations in male sexual orientation.

  7. Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: a pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardwell, Chris R; Stene, Lars C; Joner, Geir

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis...... at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second- or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR¿=¿0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P¿=¿0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I(2)¿=¿67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed...

  8. Perinatal mortality in second- vs firstborn twins: a matter of birth size or birth order?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhong-Cheng; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Klebanoff, Mark

    2014-08-01

    Second-born twins on average weigh less than first-born twins and have been reported at an elevated risk of perinatal mortality. Whether the risk differences depend on their relative birth size is unknown. The present study aimed to evaluate the association of birth order with perinatal mortality by birth order-specific weight difference in twin pregnancies. In a retrospective cohort study of 258,800 twin pregnancies without reported congenital anomalies using the US matched multiple birth data 1995-2000 (the available largest multiple birth dataset), conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of perinatal death adjusted for fetus-specific characteristics (sex, presentation, and birthweight for gestational age). Comparing second vs first twins, the risks of perinatal death were similar if they had similar birthweights (within 5%) and were increasingly higher if second twins weighed progressively less (adjusted ORs were 1.37, 1.90, and 3.94 if weighed 5.0-14.9%, 15.0-24.9%, and ≥25.0% less, respectively), and progressively lower if they weighed increasingly more (adjusted ORs were 0.67, 0.63, and 0.36 if weighed 5.0-14.9%, 15.0-24.9%, and ≥25.0% more, respectively) (all P birth size. Vaginal delivery at term is associated with a substantially greater risk of perinatal mortality in second twins. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. METABOLIC AND BEHAVIORAL PARAMETERS IN NEWBORN PIGLETS IN RELATION TO BIRTH ORDER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. SĂRĂNDAN

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The experiment had 2 phases:During the first phase 19 sows were monitored during farrowing; the piglets were numbered according to birth order, they were weighed and there were recorded the time each piglet was born and when it first suckled. There was calculated the time from the beginning of the farrowing until the time each piglet was born (TNPP and the time from birth until the first suckle (TPS. A statistical correlation was established between these parameters.During the second experimental phase, for 49 piglets from 5 sows were determined: birth weight, TPS, glycemia at birth (G0 and after the first suckle (G1, rectal temperature at birth (T0 and after the first suckles (T1. This data was statistically analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test.Respecting the birth order, TPS is shorter for piglets born last (p<0.05. Average TPS was 23.04±2.49 minutes; during this time glycemia rises from 58.35 mg% to 64.35 mg% and rectal temperature drops from 38.58°C to 37.35°C. T0 is positively correlated with G0 (p<0.01 with G1 (p<0.01 and T1 (p<0.01. G0 is highly correlated to G1 (r=0.8855; p=0.

  10. Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: a pooled analysis of 31 observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardwell, Chris R; Stene, Lars C; Joner, Geir; Bulsara, Max K; Cinek, Ondrej; Rosenbauer, Joachim; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Svensson, Jannet; Goldacre, Michael J; Waldhoer, Thomas; Jarosz-Chobot, Przemyslawa; Gimeno, Suely Ga; Chuang, Lee-Ming; Roberts, Christine L; Parslow, Roger C; Wadsworth, Emma Jk; Chetwynd, Amanda; Brigis, Girts; Urbonaite, Brone; Sipetic, Sandra; Schober, Edith; Devoti, Gabriele; Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin; de Beaufort, Carine E; Stoyanov, Denka; Buschard, Karsten; Radon, Katja; Glatthaar, Christopher; Patterson, Chris C

    2011-04-01

    The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11,955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second- or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR = 0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P = 0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I² = 67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children birth order, particularly in children aged < 5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children.

  11. Birth order and sibship composition as predictors of overweight or obesity among low-income 4- to 8-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosli, R H; Miller, A L; Peterson, K E; Kaciroti, N; Rosenblum, K; Baylin, A; Lumeng, J C

    2016-02-01

    This study aimed to examine the association of birth order and number and sex of siblings with overweight or obesity among 4- to 8-year-olds. This is a cross-sectional study involving 273 low-income mother-child dyads. Questionnaires and anthropometry were completed. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association of birth order, having younger siblings, having older siblings, having at least one brother and having at least one sister with odds of overweight or obesity. Analyses were repeated to additionally include non-biological siblings. Models were adjusted for potential confounders and intermediate variables. Prevalence of child overweight or obesity was 42.5%. Adjusting for covariates, only children and youngest siblings had higher odds of overweight or obesity compared with oldest siblings (odds ratio [OR]: 4.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67, 10.46 and OR: 3.21, 95% CI: 1.41, 7.33, respectively). Having one or more younger siblings and having at least one brother were associated with lower odds (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.69 and OR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.81, respectively). Including non-biological siblings did not meaningfully change the associations. Birth order and sibship composition are associated with overweight or obesity among 4- to 8-year-olds. Future studies identifying the underlying behavioural mechanism can help inform family-based intervention programmes. © 2015 World Obesity.

  12. Divergent response profile in activated cord blood T cells from first-born child implies birth-order-associated in utero immune programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kragh, M; Larsen, J M; Thysen, A H; Rasmussen, M A; Wolsk, H M; Bisgaard, H; Brix, S

    2016-03-01

    First-born children are at higher risk of developing a range of immune-mediated diseases. The underlying mechanism of 'birth-order effects' on disease risk is largely unknown, but in utero programming of the child's immune system may play a role. We studied the association between birth order and the functional response of stimulated cord blood T cells. Purified cord blood T cells were polyclonally activated with anti-CD3-/anti-CD28-coated beads in a subgroup of 28 children enrolled in the COPSAC2010 birth cohort. Expression levels of seven activation markers on helper and cytotoxic T cells as well as the percentage of CD4(+) CD25(+) T cells were assessed by flow cytometry. Production of IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-17, IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-10 was measured in the supernatants. IL-10 secretion (P = 0.007) and CD25 expression on CD4(+) helper T cells (P = 0.0003) in the activated cord blood T cells were selectively reduced in first-born children, while the percentage of circulating CD4(+) CD25(+) cord blood T cells was independent of birth order. First-born infants display a reduced anti-inflammatory profile in T cells at birth. This possible in utero 'birth-order' T-cell programming may contribute to later development of immune-mediated diseases by increasing overall immune reactivity in first-born children as compared to younger siblings. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Familial chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Norway and Denmark. Comments on pleiotropy and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jønsson, Viggo; Tjønnfjord, Geir E; Johannesen, Tom B; Ly, Bernt; Olsen, Jørgen H; Yuille, Martin

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the genetics of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In 56 (7%) out of 800 CLL patients with concomitant malignant hematological disease, 51 families and 141 cases were ascertained. 106 cases (75%) of CLL, 27 cases (19%) of nonCLL and 8 cases (6%) of myeloproliferative disorders. Paternal disease was transmitted primarily to the youngest sons in the sibship while maternal disease was transmitted equally to all sibs, demonstrated by means of matrix conjugation and confirmed with Cox regression on parity and birth order (maternal-offspring combination: relative risk (RR), 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.47 (0.89 - 2.43), p=0.12, compared with paternal-offspring combination: RR=3.25, 95% CI=(1.57-6.72), p<0.001). The B-cell expression in familial and sporadic CLL was indistinguishable. Parental genomic imprinting is pointed out as one possible mechanism behind this non-Mendelian genomic output.

  14. Siblings and Birth Order-Are They Important for the Occurrence of ADHD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimelt, Charlotte; Wolff, Nicole; Hölling, Heike; Mogwitz, Sabine; Ehrlich, Stefan; Martini, Julia; Roessner, Veit

    2018-05-01

    The associations of birth order, number of siblings, and ADHD was examined. The analysis based on representative, epidemiological data from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) study ( N = 13,488). An increased risk for ADHD in firstborn versus youngest born children (odds ratio [OR] = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.09, 1.58]) and also versus children with no sibling (OR = 1.31, 95% CI [1.03, 1.68]) was revealed, while number of siblings was not associated with ADHD. Results remained stable after controlling for confounders. Firstborn children may receive simultaneously less parental resources and more responsibilities if younger siblings are born. This happens during the vulnerable developmental period of ADHD. In addition, due to higher levels of insecurity, parents are assumed to focus more on potential physical or psychological abnormities in their firstborn children. This may result in a diagnostic bias in firstborn children.

  15. Distribution of maternal age and birth order groups in cases with unclassified multiple congenital abnormalities according to the number of component abnormalities: a national population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csermely, Gyula; Czeizel, Andrew E; Veszprémi, Béla

    2015-02-01

    Multiple congenital abnormalities are caused by chromosomal aberrations, mutant major genes and teratogens. A minor proportion of these patients are identified as syndromes but the major part belonging to the group of unclassified multiple CAs (UMCAs). The main objective of this study was to evaluate the maternal age and birth order in pregnant women who had offspring affected with UMCA. The strong association between numerical chromosomal aberrations, e.g., Down syndrome and advanced maternal age is well-known and tested here. The Hungarian Case-Control Surveillance of Congenital Abnormalities, 1980 to 1996, yielded a large population-based national data set with 22,843 malformed newborns or fetuses ("informative cases") included 1349 UMCA cases with their 2407 matched controls. Case-control comparison of maternal age and birth order was made for cases with UMCA, stratified by component numbers and their controls. In addition, 834 cases with Down syndrome were compared to 1432 matched controls. The well-known advanced maternal age with the higher risk for Down syndrome was confirmed. The findings of the study suggest that the young age of mothers associates with the higher risk of UMCA, in addition birth order 4 or more associates with the higher risk for UMCA with 2 and 3 component CAs. This study was the first to analyze the possible maternal and birth order effect for cases with UMCA, and the young age and higher birth order associated with a higher risk for UMCA. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval evaluation for cleft lip-palate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, Daniella Reis Barbosa; Cruz, Kaliany Wanessa da; Barros, Letízia Monteiro de; Silveira, Marise Fernandes; Swerts, Mário Sérgio Oliveira; Martelli Júnior, Hercílio

    2010-01-01

    Cleft lip and palate (CL/P) are the most common congenital craniofacial anomalies. To evaluate environmental risk factors for non-syndromic CL/P in a reference care center in Minas Gerais. we carried out a case-controlled study, assessing 100 children with clefts and 100 children without clinical alterations. The analysis dimensions (age, skin color, gender, fissure classification, maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval), obtained from a questionnaire; and later we build a data base and the analyses were carried out by the SPSS 17.0 software. The results were analyzed with the relative risk for each variable, in order to estimate the odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval, followed by a bivariate and multivariate analysis. among 200 children, 54% were males and 46% were females. As far as skin color is concerned most were brown, white and black, respectively. Cleft palates were the most common fissures found (54%), followed by lip cleft (30%) and palate cleft (16%). although with a limited sample, we noticed an association between maternal age and an increased risk for cleft lip and palate; however, paternal age, pregnancy order and interpregnancy interval were not significant.

  17. The Impact of Birth Order on Intergenerational Transmission of Attitudes from Parents to Adolescent Sons: The Israeli Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulik, Liat

    2004-01-01

    This study deals with birth order and its impact on intergenerational transmission of parental attitudes to adolescent sons in Israeli society. The sample included 294 participants (including 98 mothers, 98 fathers, and 98 sons). The attitudes chosen were key issues of concern in Israeli society: gender role attitudes, ethnic stereotypes, and…

  18. Birth order and the dominance aspect of extraversion : Are firstborns more extraverted, in the sense of being dominant, than laterborns?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pollet, Thomas V.; Dijkstra, Pieternel; Barelds, Dick P. H.; Buunk, Abraham P.

    2010-01-01

    The present study set out to examine the relationship between birth order and the dominance facet of extraversion in a community sample of around 1500 participants. In contrast, to Sulloway's (1995) predictions, the present study, using a between-family design, found firstborns to be less

  19. Sibship size, birth order and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma and infectious mononucleosis: a nationwide study in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiwei; Fang, Fang; Chang, Ellen T; Adami, Hans-Olov; Ye, Weimin

    2016-06-01

    The aetiology of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains enigmatic in endemic and non-endemic areas. Early-life infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) may predispose to NPC development, whereas delayed primary infection with EBV may cause infectious mononucleosis (IM). We used Swedish population and health registers to investigate whether potential indicators of early EBV infection, such as birth order, sibship size, maternal age and paternal age, are related to the subsequent risks for NPC and IM. We conducted two nested case-control studies, one for each health outcome, based on 251 NPC case patients, 11 314 IM case patients and five population control subjects per case matched by birth year and sex. We used conditional logistic regression modelling to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NPC and IM. The multivariate-adjusted ORs of developing NPC increased with number of siblings; the ORs associated with having one, two and three or more siblings, compared with none, were 1.59 (95% CI = 0.97, 2.62), 1.94 (95% CI = 1.17, 3.22), and 2.03 (95% CI = 1.23, 3.35), respectively (Ptrend = 0.006). This increased risk of NPC was explained mainly by having older rather than younger siblings. In contrast, lower risks of IM were observed among individuals with an increasing number of older siblings, younger siblings and total siblings. Early-life social environment, possibly related to EBV infection, contributes to NPC pathogenesis in non-endemic areas. This hypothesis is further supported by the clearly contrasting findings between NPC and IM. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  20. Birth order of twins and risk of perinatal death related to delivery in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, 1994-2003: retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gordon C S; Fleming, Kate M; White, Ian R

    2007-03-17

    To determine the effect of birth order on the risk of perinatal death in twin pregnancies. Retrospective cohort study. England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, 1994-2003. 1377 twin pregnancies with one intrapartum stillbirth or neonatal death from causes other than congenital abnormality and one surviving infant. The risk of perinatal death in the first and second twin estimated with conditional logistic regression. There was no association between birth order and the risk of death overall (odds ratio 1.0, 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.1). However, there was a highly significant interaction with gestational age (Pbirth order and the risk of death among infants born before 36 weeks' gestation but there was an increased risk of death among second twins born at term (2.3, 1.7 to 3.2, Pbirths, there was a trend (P=0.1) towards a greater risk of the second twin dying from anoxia among those delivered vaginally (4.1, 1.8 to 9.5) compared with those delivered by caesarean section (1.8, 0.9 to 3.6). In this cohort, compared with first twins, second twins born at term were at increased risk of perinatal death related to delivery. Vaginally delivered second twins had a fourfold risk of death caused by intrapartum anoxia.

  1. Beyond the genetic basis of sensation seeking: The influence of birth order, family size and parenting styles

    OpenAIRE

    Feij, Jan A,; Taris, Toon W.

    2010-01-01

    Genetic analyses of sensation seeking have shown fairly high heritabilities for measures of this trait. However, 40 to 60% of the variance remains unexplained by genetic factors. This longitudinal study examines the influence of characteristics of the family environment -- birth order, family size, socio-economic status and parenting styles -- on two dimensions of sensation seeking: disinhibition and boredom susceptibility. Previous research has shown that these dimensions load on the same fa...

  2. Infectious exposure in the first years of life and risk of central nervous system tumours in children: analysis of birth order, childcare attendance and seasonality of birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, L S; Kamper-Jørgensen, M; Schmiegelow, K; Johansen, C; Lähteenmäki, P; Träger, C; Stokland, T; Grell, K; Gustafson, G; Kogner, P; Sehested, A; Schüz, J

    2010-05-25

    An infective, mostly viral basis has been found in different human cancers. To test the hypothesis of a possible infectious aetiology for central nervous system (CNS) tumours in children, we investigated the associations with proxy measures of exposure to infectious disease. In a large case-control study nested in the populations of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland of 4.4 million children, we studied the association of birth order and seasonal variation of birth with subsequent risk for CNS tumours. We identified 3983 children from the national cancer registries, and information on exposure was obtained from the high-quality national administrative health registries. We investigated the association between childcare attendance during the first 2 years of life and the risk for CNS tumours in a subset of Danish children with CNS tumours, using information from the Danish Childcare database. We observed no association between birth order and risk of CNS tumours overall (odds ratio (OR) for second born or later born vs first born, 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96-1.10) or by histological subgroup, and children with CNS tumours did not show a seasonal variation of birth that was distinct from that of the background population. Childcare attendance compared with homecare showed a slightly increased OR (1.29; 95% CI, 0.90-1.86) for CNS tumours, with the highest risk observed in children attending a crèche. The strongest association was observed for embryonal CNS tumours. We found no effect of age at enrolment or duration of enrolment in childcare. These results do not support the hypothesis that the burden of exposure to infectious disease in early childhood has an important role in the aetiology of paediatric CNS tumours.

  3. Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong?s ?Children of 1997? Birth Cohort

    OpenAIRE

    Kwok, Man Ki; Leung, Gabriel M.; Schooling, C. Mary

    2016-01-01

    Background Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally. Methods We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn) with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI) z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored re...

  4. Association between birth order and emergency room visits and acute hospital admissions following pediatric vaccination: a self-controlled study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Hawken

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between a child's birth order and emergency room (ER visits and hospital admissions following 2-,4-,6- and 12-month pediatric vaccinations. METHODS: We included all children born in Ontario between April 1(st, 2006 and March 31(st, 2009 who received a qualifying vaccination. We identified vaccinations, ER visits and admissions using health administrative data housed at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. We used the self-controlled case series design to compare the relative incidence (RI of events among 1(st-born and later-born children using relative incidence ratios (RIR. RESULTS: For the 2-month vaccination, the RIR for 1(st-borns versus later-born children was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.57, which translates to 112 additional events/100,000 vaccinated. For the 4-month vaccination, the RIR for 1(st-borns vs. later-borns was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.45-1.99, representing 157 additional events/100,000 vaccinated. At 6 months, the RIR for 1(st vs. later-borns was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.09-1.48, or 77 excess events/100,000 vaccinated. At the 12-month vaccination, the RIR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02-1.21, or 249 excess events/100,000 vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Birth order is associated with increased incidence of ER visits and hospitalizations following vaccination in infancy. 1(st-born children had significantly higher relative incidence of events compared to later-born children.

  5. New birth weight reference standards customised to birth order and sex of babies from South India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Velusamy Saravana

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The foetal growth standards for Indian children which are available today suffer due to methodological problems. These are, for example, not adhering to the WHO recommendation to base gestational age on the number of completed weeks and secondly, not excluding mothers with risk factors. This study has addressed both the above issues and in addition provides birthweight reference ranges with regard to sex of the baby and maternal parity. Methods Data from the labour room register from 1996 to 2010 was obtained. A rotational sampling scheme was used i.e. the 12 months of the year were divided into 4 quadrants. All deliveries in January were considered to represent the first quadrant. Similarly all deliveries in April, July and October were considered to represent 2nd, 3rd and 4th quadrants. In each successive year different months were included in each quadrant. Only those mothers aged 20–39 years and delivered between 24 to 42 weeks gestational age were considered. Those mothers with obstetric risk factors were excluded. The reference standards were fitted using the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS method for Box – Cox t distribution with cubic spline smoothing. Results There were 41,055 deliveries considered. When women with risk factors were excluded 19,501 deliveries could be included in the final analysis. The male babies of term firstborn were found to be 45 g heavier than female babies. The mean birthweights were 2934 g and 2889.5 g respectively. Similarly, among the preterm babies, the first born male babies weighed 152 g more than the female babies. The mean birthweights were 1996 g and 1844 g respectively. In the case of later born babies, the term male babies weighed 116grams more than the females. The mean birth weights were 3085 grams and 2969 grams respectively. When considering later born preterm babies, the males outweighed the female babies by 111 grams. The

  6. New birth weight reference standards customised to birth order and sex of babies from South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Velusamy Saravana; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Sebastian, Tunny; Regi, Annie; Mathew, Jiji; Jose, Ruby

    2013-02-14

    The foetal growth standards for Indian children which are available today suffer due to methodological problems. These are, for example, not adhering to the WHO recommendation to base gestational age on the number of completed weeks and secondly, not excluding mothers with risk factors. This study has addressed both the above issues and in addition provides birthweight reference ranges with regard to sex of the baby and maternal parity. Data from the labour room register from 1996 to 2010 was obtained. A rotational sampling scheme was used i.e. the 12 months of the year were divided into 4 quadrants. All deliveries in January were considered to represent the first quadrant. Similarly all deliveries in April, July and October were considered to represent 2nd, 3rd and 4th quadrants. In each successive year different months were included in each quadrant. Only those mothers aged 20-39 years and delivered between 24 to 42 weeks gestational age were considered. Those mothers with obstetric risk factors were excluded. The reference standards were fitted using the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method for Box-Cox t distribution with cubic spline smoothing. There were 41,055 deliveries considered. When women with risk factors were excluded 19,501 deliveries could be included in the final analysis. The male babies of term firstborn were found to be 45 g heavier than female babies. The mean birthweights were 2934 g and 2889.5 g respectively. Similarly, among the preterm babies, the first born male babies weighed 152 g more than the female babies. The mean birthweights were 1996 g and 1844 g respectively.In the case of later born babies, the term male babies weighed 116 grams more than the females. The mean birth weights were 3085 grams and 2969 grams respectively. When considering later born preterm babies, the males outweighed the female babies by 111 grams. The mean birthweights were 2089 grams and 1978 grams

  7. Relationship of Cord Blood Immunoglobulin E and Maternal Immunoglobulin E with Birth Order and Maternal History of Allergy in Albanian Mother/Neonate Pairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifi-Pupovci, Hatixhe; Lokaj-Berisha, Violeta; Lumezi, Besa

    2017-10-15

    Previous studies reported that familial factors such as birth order and mothers atopy might influence cord blood levels and development of allergies. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship of cord blood IgE and maternal IgE with birth order and mothers history of allergy in Albanian mother/neonate pairs. Study population represented 291 mother-infant pairs. Mothers were interviewed with a questionnaire for personal history of allergy and pregnancy history whereas serum IgE levels were determined using sandwich IRMA assay. The mean level of cIgE in neonates with detectable levels was 1.59 (n = 78). No significant difference in means of cIgE was found between first born and later born neonates (p = 0.232) and between neonates of mothers with a negative and positive history of allergy (p = 0.125). Also, no significant difference was found between means of mIgE by birth order, whereas there was a significant difference of mIgE between mothers with and without a history of allergy (p = 0.01). In a group of neonates with detectable cIgE levels, maternal IgE levels were moderately correlated with cIgE levels. Cord blood IgE is not affected by birth order and mothers history of allergy, whereas mothers IgE are affected by the history of allergy but not by birth order.

  8. Does Birth Order and Academic Proficiency Influence Perfectionistic Self-presentation Among Undergraduate Engineering Students? A Descriptive Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Preeti Tabitha; Kumar, Navin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Perfectionism is a multifaceted concept. It had both advantages and disadvantages. Perfectionistic traits have been associated with leadership and very intellectual people. The present study is an attempt to understand if engineering students possess perfectionistic orientation and whether it influences self-efficacy, social connectedness, and achievement motivation. Materials and Methods: The present study adopts a random sampling design to evaluate the presence of perfectionism as a personality trait among undergraduate engineering students (N = 320). Standardized inventories such as Almost Perfect Scale-Revised were administered first to identify perfectionists and second to differentiate the adaptive from the maladaptive perfectionists. Scheduled interviews were conducted with students to obtain information regarding birth order and family functioning. Results: Findings from the study reveal that there were a significant number of maladaptive perfectionists and that they experienced higher levels of personal and societal demands leading to a negative emotional well-being in comparison to the adaptive perfectionists. We also observed that first-born children were more likely to display a perfectionistic self-presentation and from scheduled interviews, we understood that paternal influences were stronger when it came to decision-making and display of conscientiousness. Conclusion: The study draws on important implications for helping students to understand perfectionism and to respond to demands of the family and societal subsystems in a positive and an adaptive manner. PMID:27833225

  9. Does Birth Order and Academic Proficiency Influence Perfectionistic Self-presentation Among Undergraduate Engineering Students? A Descriptive Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Preeti Tabitha; Kumar, Navin

    2016-01-01

    Perfectionism is a multifaceted concept. It had both advantages and disadvantages. Perfectionistic traits have been associated with leadership and very intellectual people. The present study is an attempt to understand if engineering students possess perfectionistic orientation and whether it influences self-efficacy, social connectedness, and achievement motivation. The present study adopts a random sampling design to evaluate the presence of perfectionism as a personality trait among undergraduate engineering students ( N = 320). Standardized inventories such as Almost Perfect Scale-Revised were administered first to identify perfectionists and second to differentiate the adaptive from the maladaptive perfectionists. Scheduled interviews were conducted with students to obtain information regarding birth order and family functioning. Findings from the study reveal that there were a significant number of maladaptive perfectionists and that they experienced higher levels of personal and societal demands leading to a negative emotional well-being in comparison to the adaptive perfectionists. We also observed that first-born children were more likely to display a perfectionistic self-presentation and from scheduled interviews, we understood that paternal influences were stronger when it came to decision-making and display of conscientiousness. The study draws on important implications for helping students to understand perfectionism and to respond to demands of the family and societal subsystems in a positive and an adaptive manner.

  10. Gender and birth order as parenting moderators / A influência do gênero e ordem de nascimento sobre as práticas educativas parentais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izabela Tissot Antunes Sampaio

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at assessing gender and birth order influence on parenting and perceived parental favoritism from the children perspective. The participants were 322 adolescents aged between 13 and 17 years old. Two instruments were used to collect data - Parenting Styles Inventory and a questionnaire developed by the authors. Non-parametrical statistics (Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis were used to analyze the obtained data. Results have shown that: (a child gender has significant influence on the score of parenting styles; (b firstborn girls present significantly higher risk of suffering negative parental practices and, (c the perceived parental favoritism is significantly modulated by both gender and birth order.

  11. Biological markers of asexuality: Handedness, birth order, and finger length ratios in self-identified asexual men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yule, Morag A; Brotto, Lori A; Gorzalka, Boris B

    2014-02-01

    Human asexuality is defined as a lack of sexual attraction to anyone or anything and it has been suggested that it may be best conceptualized as a sexual orientation. Non-right-handedness, fraternal birth order, and finger length ratio (2D:4D) are early neurodevelopmental markers associated with sexual orientation. We conducted an Internet study investigating the relationship between self-identification as asexual, handedness, number of older siblings, and self-measured finger-lengths in comparison to individuals of other sexual orientation groups. A total of 325 asexuals (60 men and 265 women; M age, 24.8 years), 690 heterosexuals (190 men and 500 women; M age, 23.5 years), and 268 non-heterosexuals (homosexual and bisexual; 64 men and 204 women; M age, 29.0 years) completed online questionnaires. Asexual men and women were 2.4 and 2.5 times, respectively, more likely to be non-right-handed than their heterosexual counterparts and there were significant differences between sexual orientation groups in number of older brothers and older sisters, and this depended on handedness. Asexual and non-heterosexual men were more likely to be later-born than heterosexual men, and asexual women were more likely to be earlier-born than non-heterosexual women. We found no significant differences between sexual orientation groups on measurements of 2D:4D ratio. This is one of the first studies to test and provide preliminary empirical support for an underlying neurodevelopmental basis to account for the lack of sexual attraction characteristic of asexuality.

  12. Twin's Birth-Order Differences in Height and Body Mass Index From Birth to Old Age: A Pooled Study of 26 Twin Cohorts Participating in the CODATwins Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yokoyama, Y.; Jelenkovic, A.; Sund, R.; Sung, J.; Hopper, J.L.; Ooki, S.; Heikkilä, K.; Aaltonen, S.; Tarnoki, A.D.; Tarnoki, D.L.; Willemsen, G.; Bartels, M.; van Beijsterveldt, C.E.M.; Saudino, K.J.; Cutler, T.L.; Nelson, T.L.; Whitfield, K.E.; Wardle, J.; Llewellyn, C.H.; Fisher, A.; He, M.; Ding, X.; Bjerregaard-Andersen, M.; Beck-Nielsen, H.; Sodemann, M.; Song, Y.M.; Yang, S.; Lee, K.; Jeong, H.U.; Knafo-Noam, A.; Mankuta, D.; Abramson, L.; Burt, S.A.; Klump, K.L.; Ordonana, J.R.; Sanchez-Romera, J.F.; Colodro-Conde, L.; Harris, J.R.; Brandt, I.; Sevenius Nilsen, T.; Craig, J.M.; Saffery, R.; Ji, F.; Ning, F.; Pang, Z.; Dubois, L.; Boivin, M.; Brendgen, M.; Dionne, G.; Vitaro, F.; Martin, N.G.; Medland, S.E.; Montgomery, G.W.; Magnusson, P.K.E.; Pedersen, N.L.; Dahl Aslan, A.K.; Tynelius, P.; Haworth, C.M.A.; Plomin, R.; Rebato, E.; Rose, R.J.; Goldberg, J.H.; Rasmussen, F.; Hur, Y.M.; Sørensen, T.I.A.; Boomsma, D.I.; Kaprio, J.; Silventoinen, K.

    2016-01-01

    We analyzed birth order differences in means and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins from infancy to old age. The data were derived from the international CODATwins database. The total number of height and BMI measures from 0.5 to 79.5 years of

  13. Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and offspring body composition in young adulthood: the modifying role of offspring sex and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaparro, M Pia; Koupil, Ilona; Byberg, Liisa

    2017-12-01

    To investigate if the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and offspring's body composition in late adolescence and young adulthood varies by offspring birth order and sex. Family cohort study, with data from registers, questionnaires and physical examinations. The main outcome under study was offspring body composition (percentage fat mass (%FM), percentage lean mass (%LM)) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Uppsala, Sweden. Two hundred and twenty-six siblings (first-born v. second-born; average age 19 and 21 years) and their mothers. In multivariable linear regression models, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was positively associated with daughter's %FM, with stronger estimates for first-born (β=0·97, 95 % CI 0·14, 1·80) v. second-born daughters (β=0·64, 95 % CI 0·08, 1·20). Mother's BMI before her first pregnancy was associated with her second-born daughter's body composition (β=1·05, 95 % CI 0·31, 1·79 (%FM)) Similar results albeit in the opposite direction were observed for %LM. No significant associations were found between pre-pregnancy BMI and %FM (β=0·59, 95 % CI-0·27, 1·44 first-born; β=-0·13, 95 % CI-0·77, 0·52 second-born) or %LM (β=-0·54, 95 % CI-1·37, 0·28 first-born; β=0·11, 95 % CI-0·52, 0·74 second-born) for sons. A higher pre-pregnancy BMI was associated with higher offspring %FM and lower offspring %LM in late adolescence and young adulthood, with stronger associations for first-born daughters. Preventing obesity at the start of women's reproductive life might reduce the risk of obesity in her offspring, particularly for daughters.

  14. Divergent Response Profile in Activated Cord Blood T cells from First-born Child Implies Birth-order-associated in Utero Immune Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragh, Marie; Larsen, Jeppe Madura; Thysen, Anna Hammerich

    2016-01-01

    Background: First-born children are at higher risk for development of a range of immune-mediated diseases. The underlying mechanism of ‘birth-order-effects’ on disease risk is largely unknown, but in utero programming of the child's immune system may play a role. Objective: We studied...... programing may contribute to later development of immune-mediated diseases by increasing overall immune reactivity in first-born children as compared to younger siblings....

  15. Possible association of first and high birth order of pregnant women with the risk of isolated congenital abnormalities in Hungary - a population-based case-matched control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csermely, Gyula; Susánszky, Éva; Czeizel, Andrew E; Veszprémi, Béla

    2014-08-01

    In epidemiological studies at the estimation of risk factors in the origin of specified congenital abnormalities in general birth order (parity) is considered as confounder. The aim of this study was to analyze the possible association of first and high (four or more) birth order with the risk of congenital abnormalities in a population-based case-matched control data set. The large dataset of the Hungarian Case-Control Surveillance of Congenital Abnormalities included 21,494 cases with different isolated congenital abnormality and their 34,311 matched controls. First the distribution of birth order was compared of 24 congenital abnormality groups and their matched controls. In the second step the possible association of first and high birth order with the risk of congenital abnormalities was estimated. Finally some subgroups of neural-tube defects, congenital heart defects and abdominal wall's defects were evaluated separately. A higher risk of spina bifida aperta/cystica, esophageal atresia/stenosis and clubfoot was observed in the offspring of primiparous mothers. Of 24 congenital abnormality groups, 14 had mothers with larger proportion of high birth order. Ear defects, congenital heart defects, cleft lip± palate and obstructive defects of urinary tract had a linear trend from a lower proportion of first born cases to the larger proportion of high birth order. Birth order showed U-shaped distribution of neural-tube defects and clubfoot, i.e. both first and high birth order had a larger proportion in cases than in their matched controls. Birth order is a contributing factor in the origin of some isolated congenital abnormalities. The higher risk of certain congenital abnormalities in pregnant women with first or high birth order is worth considering in the clinical practice, e.g. ultrasound scanning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" Birth Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Man Ki; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

    2016-01-01

    Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally. We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn) with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI) z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored regression and with age-, sex- and height-standardized blood pressure, height and BMI z-scores at 13 years using linear regression in a population-representative Chinese birth cohort: "Children of 1997" (n = 8,327). Compared with laterborns, firstborns had lower birth weight-for-gestational age (mean difference = -0.18 z-score, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.23, -0.14), lower infant BMI (-0.09 z-score, 95% CI -0.14, -0.04), greater childhood height (0.10 z-score, 95% CI 0.05, 0.14) and BMI (0.08 z-score, 95% CI 0.03, 0.14), but not greater pubertal BMI (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.02, 0.11), adjusted for sex, parental age, birthplace, education and income. Firstborns had earlier onset of pubic hair (time ratio = 0.988, 95% CI 0.980, 0.996), but not breast or genitalia, development. Firstborns had greater BMI (0.07 z-score, 95% CI 0.002, 0.15), but not height (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.01, 0.11), at 13 years, but similar blood pressure. Differences by birth order continue into early adolescence with firstborns being heavier with earlier pubic hair development, which could indicate long-term cardiovascular risk.

  17. Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" Birth Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Ki Kwok

    Full Text Available Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally.We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored regression and with age-, sex- and height-standardized blood pressure, height and BMI z-scores at 13 years using linear regression in a population-representative Chinese birth cohort: "Children of 1997" (n = 8,327.Compared with laterborns, firstborns had lower birth weight-for-gestational age (mean difference = -0.18 z-score, 95% confidence interval (CI -0.23, -0.14, lower infant BMI (-0.09 z-score, 95% CI -0.14, -0.04, greater childhood height (0.10 z-score, 95% CI 0.05, 0.14 and BMI (0.08 z-score, 95% CI 0.03, 0.14, but not greater pubertal BMI (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.02, 0.11, adjusted for sex, parental age, birthplace, education and income. Firstborns had earlier onset of pubic hair (time ratio = 0.988, 95% CI 0.980, 0.996, but not breast or genitalia, development. Firstborns had greater BMI (0.07 z-score, 95% CI 0.002, 0.15, but not height (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.01, 0.11, at 13 years, but similar blood pressure.Differences by birth order continue into early adolescence with firstborns being heavier with earlier pubic hair development, which could indicate long-term cardiovascular risk.

  18. The association of birth order with later body mass index and blood pressure: a comparison between prospective cohort studies from the United Kingdom and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, L D; Hallal, P C; Matijasevich, A; Wells, J C; Santos, I S; Barros, A J D; Lawlor, D A; Victora, C G; Smith, G D

    2014-07-01

    Previous studies have found greater adiposity and cardiovascular risk in first born children. The causality of this association is not clear. Examining the association in diverse populations may lead to improved insight. We examine the association between birth order and body mass index (BMI), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) in the 2004 Pelotas cohort from southern Brazil and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) from Bristol, south-west England, restricting analysis to families with two children in order to remove confounding by family size. No consistent differences in BMI, SBP or DBP were observed comparing first and second born children. Within the Pelotas 2004 cohort, first born females were thinner, with lower SBP and DBP; for example, mean difference in SBP comparing first with second born was -0.979 (95% confidence interval -2.901 to 0.943). In ALSPAC, first born females had higher BMI, SBP and DBP. In both cohorts, associations tended to be in the opposite direction in males, although no statistical evidence for gender interactions was found. The findings do not support an association between birth order and BMI or blood pressure. Differences to previous studies may be explained by differences in populations and/or confounding by family size in previous studies.

  19. A influência do gênero e ordem de nascimento sobre as práticas educativas parentais Gender and birth order as parenting moderators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izabela Tissot Antunes Sampaio

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo avaliou o gênero e a ordem de nascimento como variáveis moderadoras das práticas educativas parentais e da percepção da preferência parental a partir do ponto de vista dos filhos. Participaram da pesquisa 322 adolescentes entre 13 e 17 anos. Foram utilizados dois instrumentos para a coleta de dados: Inventário de Estilos Parentais (IEP e um questionário desenvolvido pelos autores. Os dados foram analisados através da estatística não-paramétrica (Mann-Whitney e Kruskal-Wallis. Através da análise dos resultados, constatou-se que: (a o gênero dos filhos interfere significativamente nos índices de estilo parental; (b as primogênitas apresentaram significativamente maior risco de sofrer com as práticas parentais negativas e (c a percepção da preferência parental é influenciada pelo gênero e ordem de nascimento dos filhos.This study aimed at assessing gender and birth order influence on parenting and perceived parental favoritism from the children perspective. The participants were 322 adolescents aged between 13 and 17 years old. Two instruments were used to collect data - Parenting Styles Inventory and a questionnaire developed by the authors. Non-parametrical statistics (Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis were used to analyze the obtained data. Results have shown that: (a child gender has significant influence on the score of parenting styles; (b firstborn girls present significantly higher risk of suffering negative parental practices and, (c the perceived parental favoritism is significantly modulated by both gender and birth order.

  20. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children is found to be related to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings and the male gender, but not to birth order, when compared to healthy controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshavarzi, Zahra; Bajoghli, Hafez; Mohamadi, Mohammad Reza; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

    2014-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to explore the extent to which the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in childhood is associated with birth order and gender, and the prevalence of ADHD and mental retardation (MR) in siblings, as compared to healthy controls. Methods. Data from 200 children diagnosed with ADHD (mean age: 11.13 years; 10.5% females) were compared to data from 200 healthy controls (mean age: 11.0 years; 27.5% females). The data were related to symptoms of ADHD, birth order, gender, family size, and the occurrence of ADHD and MR in siblings. Compared to controls, the occurrence of ADHD was found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD-related symptoms in siblings (odds ratio: 13.50). Birth order and MR were not associated with the occurrence of ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms. ADHD- related symptoms increased if a further sibling also suffered from ADHD. Conclusions. Among a sample of Iranian children suffering from ADHD, the ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms in childhood were found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings. Moreover, birth order was found to be unrelated. The fact that symptoms of ADHD-related symptoms increased if a further sibling was suffering from ADHD, and decreased if a further sibling was suffering from MR, is intriguing and needs further explanation.

  1. BIRTH-ORDER, DELIVERY ROUTE, AND CONCORDANCE IN THE TRANSMISSION OF HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-1 FROM MOTHERS TO TWINS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DULIEGE, AM; AMOS, CI; FELTON, S; BIGGAR, RJ; ZIEGLER, J; CRUIKSHANK, M; LEVY, J; MEATES, MA; GIBB, D; MAYAUX, MJ; TEGLAS, JP; LAURENT, C; BLANCHE, S; ROUZIOUX, C; HELLINGGIESE, G; MATTNER, U; HOEGER, PH; CONLON, T; GRIFFIN, E; DEMARIA, A; BENEDETTO, A; PRINCIPI, N; GIAQUINTO, C; GIANCOMELLI, A; MOK, J; CASABONA, J; FORTUNY, C; URIZ, S; PEREZ, JM; TUSETRUIZ, MC; LEON, P; ELORZA, JFY; CANOSA, C; BRANDLE, B; SEGER, R; NADAL, D; IRION, O; WYLER, CA; DAVIS, P; LALLEMANT, M; LALLEMANTLECOEUR, S; HITIMANA, DG; LEPAGE, P; VANDEPERRE, P; DABIS, F; MARUM, L; NDUGWA, C; TINDYEBWA, D; ACENG, E; MMIRO, F; SUTONGAS, T; OLNESS, K; LAPOINTE, N; RUBINSTEIN, A; BURGE, D; STECHENBERG, BW; COOPER, E; REGAN, AM; SHIPKOWITZ, S; WIZNIA, A; BRUNELL, PA; COURVILLE, T; RUTSTEIN, R; MCINTOSH, K; PETRU, A; OLEARY, M; CHURCH, J; TAYLOR, S; SQUIRES, J; MALLORY, M; YOGEV, R; RAKUSAN, T; PLUMLEY, S; SHELTON, MM; WILFERT, C; LANE, B; ABRAMS, EJ; RANA, S; CHANDAVASU, O; PUVABANDITSIN, S; CHOW, JH; SHAH, K; NACHMAN, S; ONEILL, R; SELWYN, P; SHOENBAUM, E; BARZILAI, A; WARFORD, R; AHERN, L; PAHWA, S; PNUGOTI, N; GARCIATRIAS, DE; BAKSHI, S; LANDESMAN, S; MENDEZ, H; MOROSO, G; MENDEZBAUTISTA, RD; FIKRIG, S; BELMAN, A; KLINE, MW; HANSON, C; EDELSON, P; HINDS, G; VANDYKE, R; CLARK, R; WARA, DW; MANIO, EB; JOHNSON, G; WELLS, L; JOHNSON, JP; ALGER, L; LUZURIAGA, K; MASTRUCCI, T; SUNKUTU, MR; RODRIGUEZ, Z; DOYLE, M; REUBEN, J; BRYSON, Y; DILLON, M; SIMPSON, BJ; ANDIMAN, W; URIBE, P; Klauke, B.

    Background: We evaluated data from prospectively identified twins to understand better the mechanisms and covariates of mother-to-infant transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Methods: Using data obtained from an international collaboration and multivariate quasilikelihood modeling, we

  2. Modeling information technology effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Aleksander Lotko

    2005-01-01

    Numerous cases of systems not bringing expected results cause that investments in information technology are treated more and more carefully and are not privileged amongst others. This gives rise to the need for applying costs–effect calculations. Modeling IT effectiveness is a procedure which helps to bring system complexity under control. By using proper measures it is possible to perform an objective investment appraisal for projects under consideration. In the paper, a framework of method...

  3. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  4. COSYMA: Health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.

    1995-02-01

    As one of the main objectives of the MARIA project (''Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents'') initiated by the Commission of the European Communities the program package COSYMA (''COde SYstem from MARIA'') for assessing the radiological and economic off-site consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material to the atmosphere has been jointly developed by the Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (KfK), FRG, and the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB), UK. COSYMA includes models and data for assessing a broad spectrum of accident consequences, and they are implemented in independent modules. The subject of this report are those modules, which incorporate models and data for assessing individual and collective risks for deterministic and stochastic health effects. It describes the models implemented, the mathematical algorithms and the required data. Examples are given and explained for the input and output part of the modules. (orig.)

  5. Ecotoxicological effects extrapolation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1996-09-01

    One of the central problems of ecological risk assessment is modeling the relationship between test endpoints (numerical summaries of the results of toxicity tests) and assessment endpoints (formal expressions of the properties of the environment that are to be protected). For example, one may wish to estimate the reduction in species richness of fishes in a stream reach exposed to an effluent and have only a fathead minnow 96 hr LC50 as an effects metric. The problem is to extrapolate from what is known (the fathead minnow LC50) to what matters to the decision maker, the loss of fish species. Models used for this purpose may be termed Effects Extrapolation Models (EEMs) or Activity-Activity Relationships (AARs), by analogy to Structure-Activity Relationships (SARs). These models have been previously reviewed in Ch. 7 and 9 of and by an OECD workshop. This paper updates those reviews and attempts to further clarify the issues involved in the development and use of EEMs. Although there is some overlap, this paper does not repeat those reviews and the reader is referred to the previous reviews for a more complete historical perspective, and for treatment of additional extrapolation issues.

  6. Models for effective prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, C L; Kelder, S H

    1992-07-01

    The social influence models do provide some optimism for primary prevention efforts. Prevention programs appear most effective when 1) the target behavior of the intervention has received increasing societal disapproval (such as cigarette smoking), 2) multiple years of behavioral health education are planned, and 3) community-wide involvement or mass media complement a school-based peer-led program (45,46). Short-term programs and those involving alcohol use have had less favorable outcomes. Future research in primary prevention should address concerns of high-risk groups and high-risk countries, such as lower income populations in the United States or countries that have large adolescent homeless populations. The utilization of adolescent leaders for program dissemination might be particularly critical in these settings. A second major and global concern should focus upon alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. In many communities adolescent alcohol use is normative and even adult supported. Thus, young people are getting quite inconsistent messages on alcohol from their schools, from TV, from peers, and from parents. This inconsistency may translate into many tragic and avoidable deaths for young people. Clearly, in the area of alcohol-related problems, community-wide involvement may be necessary. A third direction for prevention research should involve issues of norms, access, and enforcement including policy interventions, such as involve the availability of cigarette vending machines or the ease of under-age buying or levels of taxation. These methods affect adolescents more acutely since their financial resources, for the most part, are more limited. These policy level methods also signify to adolescents what adults consider appropriate.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  7. Safeguards system effectiveness modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, H.A.; Boozer, D.D.; Chapman, L.D.; Daniel, S.L.; Engi, D.; Hulme, B.L.; Varnado, G.B.

    1976-01-01

    A general methodology for the comparative evaluation of physical protection system effectiveness at nuclear facilities is presently under development. The approach is applicable to problems of sabotage or theft at fuel cycle facilities. The overall methodology and the primary analytic techniques used to assess system effectiveness are briefly outlined

  8. Safeguards system effectiveness modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, H.A.; Boozer, D.D.; Chapman, L.D.; Daniel, S.L.; Engi, D.; Hulme, B.L.; Varnado, G.B.

    1976-01-01

    A general methodology for the comparative evaluation of physical protection system effectiveness at nuclear facilities is presently under development. The approach is applicable to problems of sabotage or theft at fuel cycle facilities. In this paper, the overall methodology and the primary analytic techniques used to assess system effectiveness are briefly outlined

  9. Avaliação da idade materna, paterna, ordem de paridade e intervalo interpartal para fissura lábio-palatina Maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval evaluation for cleft lip-palate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniella Reis Barbosa Martelli

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Fissuras do lábio e/ou palato representam as anomalias congênitas craniofaciais mais comuns. OBJETIVO: Avaliar fatores de risco ambientais em pacientes com fissuras lábio-palatinas não-sindrômicas, em um Serviço de Minas Gerais. CASUÍSTICA E MÉTODO: Realizou-se estudo caso-controle, avaliando 100 crianças com fissuras e 100 crianças sem alterações clínicas. As dimensões de análise (idade, cor de pele, sexo, classificação das fissuras, idade materna e paterna, ordem de paridade e intervalo interpartal foram obtidas a partir de um questionário, sendo posteriormente construído banco de dados e as análises realizadas pelo programa SPSS 17.0. Os resultados foram analisados com risco relativo para cada variável, para estimar odds ratios com intervalo de confiança de 95% seguido de análise bivariada e multivariada. RESULTADOS: Entre as 200 crianças, 54% foram do sexo masculino e 46% do feminino. Com relação à cor da pele, houve predomínio de parda, branca e preta, respectivamente. Entre os tipos de fissuras, as mais comuns foram as fissuras lábio-palatinas (54%, seguidas pela fissura labial (30% e fissura palatina (16%. CONCLUSÃO: Embora com uma população limitada, verificou-se associação entre idade materna e risco aumentado para fissuras lábio-palatinas, porém idade paterna, ordem de paridade e intervalo interpartal não foram significantes.Cleft lip and palate (CL/P are the most common congenital craniofacial anomalies. AIM: To evaluate environmental risk factors for non-syndromic CL/P in a reference care center in Minas Gerais. MATERIALS AND METHODS: we carried out a case-controlled study, assessing 100 children with clefts and 100 children without clinical alterations. The analysis dimensions (age, skin color, gender, fissure classification, maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval, obtained from a questionnaire; and later we build a data base and the analyses were carried out by the

  10. Effective modelling of acoustofluidic devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ley, Mikkel Wennemoes Hvitfeld

    , and 3) acoustic streaming patterns in the devices considered in model 2). 1) We derive an effective model for numerical studies of hydrodynamic particle-particle interactions in microfluidic high-concentration suspensions. A suspension of microparticles placed in a microfluidic channel and influenced...... and travelling waves as well as absorption. We model the connective tubing at the outlets, either as being free reflecting surfaces or perfect absorbers of outgoing acoustic waves, and we make an effective description of the mechanical actuation of the attached piezoelectric transducer. 3) Using the model...

  11. Modeling quantization effects in field effect transistors

    CERN Document Server

    Troger, C

    2001-01-01

    Numerical simulation in the field of semiconductor device development advanced to a valuable, cost-effective and flexible facility. The most widely used simulators are based on classical models, as they need to satisfy time and memory constraints. To improve the performance of field effect transistors such as MOSFETs and HEMTs these devices are continuously scaled down in their dimensions. Consequently the characteristics of such devices are getting more and more determined by quantum mechanical effects arising from strong transversal fields in the channel. In this work an approach based on a two-dimensional electron gas is used to describe the confinement of the carriers. Quantization is considered in one direction only. For the derivation of a one-dimensional Schroedinger equation in the effective mass framework a non-parabolic correction for the energy dispersion due to Kane is included. For each subband a non-parabolic dispersion relation characterized by subband masses and subband non-parabolicity coeffi...

  12. Modeling Incoherent Electron Cloud Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vay, Jean-Luc; Benedetto, E.; Fischer, W.; Franchetti, G.; Ohmi, K.; Schulte, D.; Sonnad, K.; Tomas, R.; Vay, J.-L.; Zimmermann, F.; Rumolo, G.; Pivi, M.; Raubenheimer, T.

    2007-01-01

    Incoherent electron effects could seriously limit the beam lifetime in proton or ion storage rings, such as LHC, SPS, or RHIC, or blow up the vertical emittance of positron beams, e.g., at the B factories or in linear-collider damping rings. Different approaches to modeling these effects each have their own merits and drawbacks. We describe several simulation codes which simplify the descriptions of the beam-electron interaction and of the accelerator structure in various different ways, and present results for a toy model of the SPS. In addition, we present evidence that for positron beams the interplay of incoherent electron-cloud effects and synchrotron radiation can lead to a significant increase in vertical equilibrium emittance. The magnitude of a few incoherent e+e- scattering processes is also estimated. Options for future code development are reviewed

  13. Better models are more effectively connected models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

    2016-04-01

    The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity

  14. Mathematical model for gyroscope effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usubamatov, Ryspek

    2015-05-01

    Gyroscope effects are used in many engineering calculations of rotating parts, and a gyroscope is the basic unit of numerous devices and instruments used in aviation, space, marine and other industries. The primary attribute of a gyroscope is a spinning rotor that persists in maintaining its plane of rotation, creating gyroscope effects. Numerous publications represent the gyroscope theory using mathematical models based on the law of kinetic energy conservation and the rate of change in angular momentum of a spinning rotor. Gyroscope theory still attracts many researchers who continue to discover new properties of gyroscopic devices. In reality, gyroscope effects are more complex and known mathematical models do not accurately reflect the actual motions. Analysis of forces acting on a gyroscope shows that four dynamic components act simultaneously: the centrifugal, inertial and Coriolis forces and the rate of change in angular momentum of the spinning rotor. The spinning rotor generates a rotating plane of centrifugal and Coriols forces that resist the twisting of the spinning rotor with external torque applied. The forced inclination of the spinning rotor generates inertial forces, resulting in precession torque of a gyroscope. The rate of change of the angular momentum creates resisting and precession torques which are not primary one in gyroscope effects. The new mathematical model for the gyroscope motions under the action of the external torque applied can be as base for new gyroscope theory. At the request of the author of the paper, this corrigendum was issued on 24 May 2016 to correct an incomplete Table 1 and errors in Eq. (47) and Eq. (48).

  15. Requirements for effective modelling strategies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaunt, J.L.; Riley, J.; Stein, A.; Penning de Vries, F.W.T.

    1997-01-01

    As the result of a recent BBSRC-funded workshop between soil scientists, modellers, statisticians and others to discuss issues relating to the derivation of complex environmental models, a set of modelling guidelines is presented and the required associated research areas are discussed.

  16. Birth order and fratricide: an evaluation of Sulloway's hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marleau, Jacques D

    2005-01-01

    Sulloway (1996) suggested that older siblings were more likely to be fratricidal than younger ones. Our data, based on 113 case studies found in the psychiatric, psychological and criminological literature since 1959, confirms his hypothesis. In 72 out of the 92 cases (78%) where age could be determined, the aggressor was older than the victim. The same held true even when the age of aggressor, sex of aggressor and victim, presence or not of a blood tie, and presence of one or more victims are taken into account. Surprisingly, most of the aggressors in our sample were under the age of 18 years. Also, first-borns were more often the aggressor than the victim. This result seems to confirm the Adlerian theory of dethronement. Some suggestions and hypotheses are advanced for future research to improve our understanding of this phenomenon.

  17. Twin birth order, birthweight and birthweight discordance: any relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onyiriuka A.N.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is widely believed that in twin pairs, at birth, the first-born weigh more than the second-born but this concept has been challenged. Objective: To assess the truthfulness of this common concept that first-born twins are usually heavier than their second-born siblings at birth. Methods: In a series of 104 sets of live-born twins, the birth weights of first-born twins were compared with those of their second-born siblings, after controlling for gender. Their intra-pair birthweight differences were determined and twin pairs whose birthweight difference was 15% or more were designated as discordant. Results: Twin I was heavier than Twin II in 61.5% of cases while Twin II was heavier than Twin I in 28.9% of cases. Twins I and II had equal birthweights in 9.6% of cases. Comparing the mean birthweight of the first-born-male twin with that of second-born- male twin, it was 2515+427g (95% Confidence Interval, CI=2402-2628 versus 2432 +435g (95% CI=2321-2543 p>0.05. The mean birthweight of first-born-female twin was 2326+445g (95% CI=2214-2439 while that of the second-born-female twin was 2325+501g (95% CI=2197-2453 p>0.05. When the birthweight difference exceeded 750g, the probability that Twin I will be heavier than Twin II was 83.3% (5 of 6. Conclusion: Although the first-born twin was more often heavier than their second-born siblings, either could weigh more or less at birth. The larger the birthweight difference between growth-discordant twin pair, the greater the probability that the heavier twin would be delivered first

  18. 221 THE ROLE OF BIRTH ORDER IN SUBSTANCE RELATED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    It has often been suggested by Evolutionary Psychologists and Anthropologists that since a first born is 'an only child' before another sibling is born parents heavily invest in their first born child (Dunbar & Barrett, 2007). This is because the child is looked upon as one who will carry on their family genes to the next generation ...

  19. The anchor integration model: A descriptive model of anchoring effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brandon M; Schley, Dan R

    2016-11-01

    Few experimental effects in the psychology of judgment and decision making have been studied as meticulously as the anchoring effect. Although the existing literature provides considerable insight into the psychological processes underlying anchoring effects, extant theories up to this point have only generated qualitative predictions. While these theories have been productive in advancing our understanding of the underlying anchoring process, they leave much to be desired in the interpretation of specific anchoring effects. In this article, we introduce the Anchor Integration Model (AIM) as a descriptive tool for the measurement and quantification of anchoring effects. We develop two versions the model: one suitable for assessing between-participant anchoring effects, and another for assessing individual differences in anchoring effects. We then fit each model to data from two experiments, and demonstrate the model's utility in describing anchoring effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The differential susceptibility to media effects model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this theoretical article, we introduce the Differential Susceptibility to Media Effects Model (DSMM), a new, integrative model to improve our understanding of media effects. The DSMM organizes, integrates, and extends the insights developed in earlier microlevel media-effects theories. It

  1. Bilinear Mixed Effects Models for Dyadic Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoff, Peter D

    2003-01-01

    .... Such an effect, along with standard linear fixed and random effects, is incorporated into a generalized linear model, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is provided for Bayesian estimation and inference...

  2. Modeling of Pressure Effects in HVDC Cables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szabo, Peter; Hassager, Ole; Strøbech, Esben

    1999-01-01

    A model is developed for the prediction of pressure effects in HVDC mass impregnatedcables as a result of temperature changes.To test the model assumptions, experiments were performed in cable like geometries.It is concluded that the model may predict the formation of gas cavities....

  3. Standard Model Effective Potential from Trace Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Jora

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available By analogy with the low energy QCD effective linear sigma model, we construct a standard model effective potential based entirely on the requirement that the tree level and quantum level trace anomalies must be satisfied. We discuss a particular realization of this potential in connection with the Higgs boson mass and Higgs boson effective couplings to two photons and two gluons. We find that this kind of potential may describe well the known phenomenology of the Higgs boson.

  4. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual rainfall–runoff models have become a basic tool for evaluating effects of land use/cover changes on the hydrologic processes in small-scale as well as large watersheds. The runoff-producing mechanism is influenced by land use/cover changes. In this study, we analysed the effect of land use change on ...

  5. Scientists' internal models of the greenhouse effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libarkin, J. C.; Miller, H.; Thomas, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    A prior study utilized exploratory factor analysis to identify models underlying drawings of the greenhouse effect made by entering university freshmen. This analysis identified four archetype models of the greenhouse effect that appear within the college enrolling population. The current study collected drawings made by 144 geoscientists, from undergraduate geoscience majors through professionals. These participants scored highly on a standardized assessment of climate change understanding and expressed confidence in their understanding; many also indicated that they teach climate change in their courses. Although geoscientists held slightly more sophisticated greenhouse effect models than entering freshmen, very few held complete, explanatory models. As with freshmen, many scientists (44%) depict greenhouse gases in a layer in the atmosphere; 52% of participants depicted this or another layer as a physical barrier to escaping energy. In addition, 32% of participants indicated that incoming light from the Sun remains unchanged at Earth's surface, in alignment with a common model held by students. Finally, 3-20% of scientists depicted physical greenhouses, ozone, or holes in the atmosphere, all of which correspond to non-explanatory models commonly seen within students and represented in popular literature. For many scientists, incomplete models of the greenhouse effect are clearly enough to allow for reasoning about climate change. These data suggest that: 1) better representations about interdisciplinary concepts, such as the greenhouse effect, are needed for both scientist and public understanding; and 2) the scientific community needs to carefully consider how much understanding of a model is needed before necessary reasoning can occur.

  6. Effective operator treatment of the Lipkin model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abraham, K.J.; Vary, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    We analyze the Lipkin model in the strong coupling limit using effective operator techniques. We present both analytical and numerical results for low energy effective Hamiltonians. We investigate the reliability of various approximations used to simplify the nuclear many body problem, such as the cluster approximation. We demonstrate, in explicit examples, certain limits to the validity of the cluster approximation but caution that these limits may be particular to this model where the interactions are of unlimited range

  7. Modelling of Deterioration Effects on Concrete Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Teplý

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the service life of concrete structures models for deterioration effects are needed. This paper has the form of a survey, listing and describing such analytical models, namely carbonation of concrete, ingress of chlorides, corrosion of reinforcing steel and prestressing tendons. The probabilistic approach is applied.

  8. Modelling synergistic effects of appetite regulating hormones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Julie Berg; Ritz, Christian

    2016-01-01

    We briefly reviewed one definition of dose addition, which is applicable within the framework of generalized linear models. We established how this definition of dose addition corresponds to effect addition in case only two doses per compound are considered for evaluating synergistic effects...

  9. Mixed-effects regression models in linguistics

    CERN Document Server

    Heylen, Kris; Geeraerts, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    When data consist of grouped observations or clusters, and there is a risk that measurements within the same group are not independent, group-specific random effects can be added to a regression model in order to account for such within-group associations. Regression models that contain such group-specific random effects are called mixed-effects regression models, or simply mixed models. Mixed models are a versatile tool that can handle both balanced and unbalanced datasets and that can also be applied when several layers of grouping are present in the data; these layers can either be nested or crossed.  In linguistics, as in many other fields, the use of mixed models has gained ground rapidly over the last decade. This methodological evolution enables us to build more sophisticated and arguably more realistic models, but, due to its technical complexity, also introduces new challenges. This volume brings together a number of promising new evolutions in the use of mixed models in linguistics, but also addres...

  10. Effect of policosanol on experimental thrombosis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbajal, D; Arruzazabala, M L; Más, R; Molina, V; Valdés, S

    1994-05-01

    Policosanol is a natural product, obtained from sugar cane wax (Saccharum officinarum L.) with which cholesterol-lowering effects have been demonstrated in experimental models, healthy volunteers and hypercholesterolemic patients. The effects of policosanol on experimental venous and arterial thrombosis in rats were investigated. Policosanol (25 mg/kg) significantly decreased the thrombus weight, in the venous thrombosis models, the protective effect persisting until 4 h after its oral administration. Policosanol (25 mg/kg single dose) was able to reduce rectal temperature variation induced by arterial thrombosis. Also at the same dose policosanol increased 6-keto-PGF1 alpha serum levels in rats.

  11. Thermal Effects Modeling Developed for Smart Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ho-Jun

    1998-01-01

    Applying smart materials in aeropropulsion systems may improve the performance of aircraft engines through a variety of vibration, noise, and shape-control applications. To facilitate the experimental characterization of these smart structures, researchers have been focusing on developing analytical models to account for the coupled mechanical, electrical, and thermal response of these materials. One focus of current research efforts has been directed toward incorporating a comprehensive thermal analysis modeling capability. Typically, temperature affects the behavior of smart materials by three distinct mechanisms: Induction of thermal strains because of coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch 1. Pyroelectric effects on the piezoelectric elements; 2. Temperature-dependent changes in material properties; and 3. Previous analytical models only investigated the first two thermal effects mechanisms. However, since the material properties of piezoelectric materials generally vary greatly with temperature (see the graph), incorporating temperature-dependent material properties will significantly affect the structural deflections, sensory voltages, and stresses. Thus, the current analytical model captures thermal effects arising from all three mechanisms through thermopiezoelectric constitutive equations. These constitutive equations were incorporated into a layerwise laminate theory with the inherent capability to model both the active and sensory response of smart structures in thermal environments. Corresponding finite element equations were formulated and implemented for both the beam and plate elements to provide a comprehensive thermal effects modeling capability.

  12. ANSYS Modeling of Hydrostatic Stress Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Phillip A.

    1999-01-01

    Classical metal plasticity theory assumes that hydrostatic pressure has no effect on the yield and postyield behavior of metals. Plasticity textbooks, from the earliest to the most modem, infer that there is no hydrostatic effect on the yielding of metals, and even modem finite element programs direct the user to assume the same. The object of this study is to use the von Mises and Drucker-Prager failure theory constitutive models in the finite element program ANSYS to see how well they model conditions of varying hydrostatic pressure. Data is presented for notched round bar (NRB) and "L" shaped tensile specimens. Similar results from finite element models in ABAQUS are shown for comparison. It is shown that when dealing with geometries having a high hydrostatic stress influence, constitutive models that have a functional dependence on hydrostatic stress are more accurate in predicting material behavior than those that are independent of hydrostatic stress.

  13. Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamada, Souad, E-mail: souadhamada@yahoo.fr [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Louai, Fatima Zohra, E-mail: fz_louai@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Nait-Said, Nasreddine, E-mail: n_naitsaid@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Benabou, Abdelkader, E-mail: Abdelkader.Benabou@univ-lille1.fr [L2EP, Université de Lille1, 59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq (France)

    2016-07-15

    An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.

  14. Modeling socioeconomic status effects on language development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Michael S C; Forrester, Neil A; Ronald, Angelica

    2013-12-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) is an important environmental predictor of language and cognitive development, but the causal pathways by which it operates are unclear. We used a computational model of development to explore the adequacy of manipulations of environmental information to simulate SES effects in English past-tense acquisition, in a data set provided by Bishop (2005). To our knowledge, this is the first application of computational models of development to SES. The simulations addressed 3 new challenges: (a) to combine models of development and individual differences in a single framework, (b) to expand modeling to the population level, and (c) to implement both environmental and genetic/intrinsic sources of individual differences. The model succeeded in capturing the qualitative patterns of regularity effects in both population performance and the predictive power of SES that were observed in the empirical data. The model suggested that the empirical data are best captured by relatively wider variation in learning abilities and relatively narrow variation in (and good quality of) environmental information. There were shortcomings in the model's quantitative fit, which are discussed. The model made several novel predictions, with respect to the influence of SES on delay versus giftedness, the change of SES effects over development, and the influence of SES on children of different ability levels (gene-environment interactions). The first of these predictions was that SES should reliably predict gifted performance in children but not delayed performance, and the prediction was supported by the Bishop data set. Finally, the model demonstrated limits on the inferences that can be drawn about developmental mechanisms on the basis of data from individual differences. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. Modeling and Study of the Cerenkov Effect

    CERN Document Server

    Angelov, I; Makovicka, L; Mishev, A; Stamenov, J N

    2003-01-01

    The studies realized in INRNE (Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy) particulary in cosmic rays detection and construction of Muonic Cerenkov Telescope in University of Blagoevgrad [1] shows the need to develop a theoretical model based on observed phenomenon and to refine it for the detection system optimisation. The effect was introduced in EGS4 code system. The first simulations were consecrated to different geometry of water tank in total reflection. The model was compared with experimental data realised with gamma source using the telescope. A simple atmospheric model is introduced in EGS4. The comparison between CORSIKA and EGS4 codes was realised.

  16. Mesomechanical modeling of shape memory effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vokoun, David; Kafka, Vratislav

    1999-06-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMA) are well known materials. There is a lot of technical applications making use of their unique properties. Most of the significant applications are based on use of the thermomechancial properties. Growing number of those applications causes a need for an universal mathematical model with ability to describe all thermomechancial properties of SMA by relatively simple final set of constitutive equations that could be helpful for development of further sophisticated shape memory applications. Unfortunately, a lot of attention has been paid to metallurgical research of shape memory alloys in a few last decades and less attention was dedicated to shape memory modeling. Our model does not claim to be a universal model, but only one contribution to modeling of shape memory effect for binary SMA. The model is adapted for the most applied SMA -- nitinol and is based on the hypothesis that in the course of shape memory effect the distances of first atomic neighbors (Ni-Ti) remain nearly unchanged, whereas the distances of second neighbors (Ti-Ti and Ni-Ni) change substantially. Consequently, we consider some mechanical properties of Ni-substructure and Ti- substructure separately. The mechanical behavior of Ti- substructure is modeled as elastic whereas that of Ni- substructure as elasto-plastic. The resulting relatively simple differential constitutive equations express relationship among internal stress tensors, macroscopic stress tensors, macroscopic strain tensors and temperature.

  17. Event models and the fan effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radvansky, G A; O'Rear, Andrea E; Fisher, Jerry S

    2017-08-01

    The current study explored the persistence of event model organizations and how this influences the experience of interference during retrieval. People in this study memorized lists of sentences about objects in locations, such as "The potted palm is in the hotel." Previous work has shown that such information can either be stored in separate event models, thereby producing retrieval interference, or integrated into common event models, thereby eliminating retrieval interference. Unlike prior studies, the current work explored the impact of forgetting up to 2 weeks later on this pattern of performance. We explored three possible outcomes across the various retention intervals. First, consistent with research showing that longer delays reduce proactive and retroactive interference, any retrieval interference effects of competing event models could be reduced over time. Second, the binding of information into events models may weaken over time, causing interference effects to emerge when they had previously been absent. Third, and finally, the organization of information into event models could remain stable over long periods of time. The results reported here are most consistent with the last outcome. While there were some minor variations across the various retention intervals, the basic pattern of event model organization remained preserved over the two-week retention period.

  18. Modelling vocal anatomy's significant effect on speech

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of larynx position on the articulatory abilities of a humanlike vocal tract. Previous work has investigated models that were built to resemble the anatomy of existing species or fossil ancestors. This has led to conflicting conclusions about the relation between

  19. Random effect selection in generalised linear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn

    We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...

  20. BUSINESS MODELS FOR INCREASING TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER EFFECTIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simina FULGA

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer organizations (centers from ReNITT, by using the specific instruments of Business Model Canvas, associated to the technological transfer value chain for the value added services addressed to their clients and according to a continuously improved competitive strategy over competition analysis.

  1. Effective models for excitons in carbon nanotubes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornean, Horia; Duclos, Pierre; Ricaud, Benjamin

    We analyse the low lying spectrum of a model of excitons in carbon nanotubes. Consider two particles with a Coulomb self-interaction, placed on an infinitely long cylinder. If the cylinder radius becomes small, the low lying spectrum is well described by a one-dimensional effective Hamiltonian...

  2. Biologically based multistage modeling of radiation effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William Hazelton; Suresh Moolgavkar; E. Georg Luebeck

    2005-08-30

    This past year we have made substantial progress in modeling the contribution of homeostatic regulation to low-dose radiation effects and carcinogenesis. We have worked to refine and apply our multistage carcinogenesis models to explicitly incorporate cell cycle states, simple and complex damage, checkpoint delay, slow and fast repair, differentiation, and apoptosis to study the effects of low-dose ionizing radiation in mouse intestinal crypts, as well as in other tissues. We have one paper accepted for publication in ''Advances in Space Research'', and another manuscript in preparation describing this work. I also wrote a chapter describing our combined cell-cycle and multistage carcinogenesis model that will be published in a book on stochastic carcinogenesis models edited by Wei-Yuan Tan. In addition, we organized and held a workshop on ''Biologically Based Modeling of Human Health Effects of Low dose Ionizing Radiation'', July 28-29, 2005 at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington. We had over 20 participants, including Mary Helen Barcellos-Hoff as keynote speaker, talks by most of the low-dose modelers in the DOE low-dose program, experimentalists including Les Redpath (and Mary Helen), Noelle Metting from DOE, and Tony Brooks. It appears that homeostatic regulation may be central to understanding low-dose radiation phenomena. The primary effects of ionizing radiation (IR) are cell killing, delayed cell cycling, and induction of mutations. However, homeostatic regulation causes cells that are killed or damaged by IR to eventually be replaced. Cells with an initiating mutation may have a replacement advantage, leading to clonal expansion of these initiated cells. Thus we have focused particularly on modeling effects that disturb homeostatic regulation as early steps in the carcinogenic process. There are two primary considerations that support our focus on homeostatic regulation. First, a number of

  3. Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juul, Jonas S.; Porter, Mason A.

    2018-01-01

    Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can—depending on a parameter—either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

  4. Are Quantum Models for Order Effects Quantum?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2017-12-01

    The application of principles of Quantum Mechanics in areas outside of physics has been getting increasing attention in the scientific community in an emergent disciplined called Quantum Cognition. These principles have been applied to explain paradoxical situations that cannot be easily explained through classical theory. In quantum probability, events are characterised by a superposition state, which is represented by a state vector in a N-dimensional vector space. The probability of an event is given by the squared magnitude of the projection of this superposition state into the desired subspace. This geometric approach is very useful to explain paradoxical findings that involve order effects, but do we really need quantum principles for models that only involve projections? This work has two main goals. First, it is still not clear in the literature if a quantum projection model has any advantage towards a classical projection. We compared both models and concluded that the Quantum Projection model achieves the same results as its classical counterpart, because the quantum interference effects play no role in the computation of the probabilities. Second, it intends to propose an alternative relativistic interpretation for rotation parameters that are involved in both classical and quantum models. In the end, instead of interpreting these parameters as a similarity measure between questions, we propose that they emerge due to the lack of knowledge concerned with a personal basis state and also due to uncertainties towards the state of world and towards the context of the questions.

  5. Effects of Anethole in Nociception Experimental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Mileni Versuti Ritter

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the antinociceptive activity of anethole (anethole 1-methoxy-4-benzene (1-propenyl, major compound of the essential oil of star anise (Illicium verum, in different experimental models of nociception. The animals were pretreated with anethole (62.5, 125, 250, and 500 mg/kg one hour before the experiments. To eliminate a possible sedative effect of anethole, the open field test was conducted. Anethole (62.5, 125, 250, and 500 mg/kg showed an antinociceptive effect in the writhing model induced by acetic acid, in the second phase of the formalin test (125 and 250 mg/kg in the test of glutamate (62.5, 125, and 250 mg/kg, and expresses pain induced by ACF (250 mg/kg. In contrast, anethole was not able to increase the latency time on the hot plate and decrease the number of flinches during the initial phase of the formalin test in any of the doses tested. It was also demonstrated that anethole has no association with sedative effects. Therefore, these data showed that anethole, at all used doses, has no sedative effect and has an antinociceptive effect. This effect may be due to a decrease in the production/release of inflammatory mediators.

  6. Effects of anethole in nociception experimental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Alessandra Mileni Versuti; Ames, Franciele Queiroz; Otani, Fernando; de Oliveira, Rubia Maria Weffort; Cuman, Roberto Kenji Nakamura; Bersani-Amado, Ciomar Aparecida

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the antinociceptive activity of anethole (anethole 1-methoxy-4-benzene (1-propenyl)), major compound of the essential oil of star anise (Illicium verum), in different experimental models of nociception. The animals were pretreated with anethole (62.5, 125, 250, and 500 mg/kg) one hour before the experiments. To eliminate a possible sedative effect of anethole, the open field test was conducted. Anethole (62.5, 125, 250, and 500 mg/kg) showed an antinociceptive effect in the writhing model induced by acetic acid, in the second phase of the formalin test (125 and 250 mg/kg) in the test of glutamate (62.5, 125, and 250 mg/kg), and expresses pain induced by ACF (250 mg/kg). In contrast, anethole was not able to increase the latency time on the hot plate and decrease the number of flinches during the initial phase of the formalin test in any of the doses tested. It was also demonstrated that anethole has no association with sedative effects. Therefore, these data showed that anethole, at all used doses, has no sedative effect and has an antinociceptive effect. This effect may be due to a decrease in the production/release of inflammatory mediators.

  7. Effective orthorhombic anisotropic models for wavefield extrapolation

    KAUST Repository

    Ibanez-Jacome, W.

    2014-07-18

    Wavefield extrapolation in orthorhombic anisotropic media incorporates complicated but realistic models to reproduce wave propagation phenomena in the Earth\\'s subsurface. Compared with the representations used for simpler symmetries, such as transversely isotropic or isotropic, orthorhombic models require an extended and more elaborated formulation that also involves more expensive computational processes. The acoustic assumption yields more efficient description of the orthorhombic wave equation that also provides a simplified representation for the orthorhombic dispersion relation. However, such representation is hampered by the sixth-order nature of the acoustic wave equation, as it also encompasses the contribution of shear waves. To reduce the computational cost of wavefield extrapolation in such media, we generate effective isotropic inhomogeneous models that are capable of reproducing the firstarrival kinematic aspects of the orthorhombic wavefield. First, in order to compute traveltimes in vertical orthorhombic media, we develop a stable, efficient and accurate algorithm based on the fast marching method. The derived orthorhombic acoustic dispersion relation, unlike the isotropic or transversely isotropic ones, is represented by a sixth order polynomial equation with the fastest solution corresponding to outgoing P waves in acoustic media. The effective velocity models are then computed by evaluating the traveltime gradients of the orthorhombic traveltime solution, and using them to explicitly evaluate the corresponding inhomogeneous isotropic velocity field. The inverted effective velocity fields are source dependent and produce equivalent first-arrival kinematic descriptions of wave propagation in orthorhombic media. We extrapolate wavefields in these isotropic effective velocity models using the more efficient isotropic operator, and the results compare well, especially kinematically, with those obtained from the more expensive anisotropic extrapolator.

  8. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  9. Anyonic glueballs from an effective string model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Nicolas; Buisseret, Fabien

    2016-01-01

    Relying on an effective-string approach in which glueballs—bound states of pure Yang-Mills theory—are modeled by closed strings, we give arguments suggesting that anyonic glueballs, i.e. glueballs with arbitrary spin, may exist in (2 +1 )-dimensional Yang-Mills theory. We then focus on the large-Nc limit of S U (Nc) Yang-Mills theory and show that our model leads to a mass spectrum in good agreement with lattice data in the scalar sector, while it predicts the masses and spins of anyonic glueball states.

  10. SOME THEORETICAL MODELS EXPLAINING ADVERTISING EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasilica Magdalena SOMEŞFĂLEAN

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Persuade clients is still the main focus of the companies, using a set of methods and techniques designed to influence their behavior, in order to obtain better results (profits over a longer period of time. Since the late nineteenth - early twentieth century, the american E.St.Elmo Lewis, considered a pioneer in advertising and sales, developed the first theory, AIDA model, later used by marketers and advertisers to develop a marketing communications strategy. Later studies have developed other models that are the main subject of this research, which explains how and why persuasive communication works, to understand why some approaches are effective and others are not.

  11. Gyrofluid turbulence models with kinetic effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorland, W.; Hammett, G.W.

    1992-12-01

    Nonlinear gyrofluid equations are derived by taking moments of the nonlinear, electrostatic gyrokinetic equation. The principal model presented includes evolution equations for the guiding center n, u[parallel], T[parallel], and T[perpendicular] along with an equation expressing the quasineutrality constraint. Additional evolution equations for higher moments are derived which may be used if greater accuracy is desired. The moment hierarchy is closed with a Landau-damping model which is equivalent to a multi-pole approximation to the plasma dispersion function, extended to include finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, new dissipative, nonlinear terms are found which model the perpendicular phase-mixing of the distribution function along contours of constant electrostatic potential. These FLR phase-mixing'' terms introduce a hyperviscosity-like damping [proportional to] k[sub [perpendicular

  12. Internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model

    OpenAIRE

    RAHMANI, Samaneh

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Present paper has been developed with the title of internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model. Presenting the question: Today Internet is an important channel in marketing and advertising. The reason for this could be the ability of the Internet to reduce costs and people’s access to online services[1]. Also advertisers can easily access a multitude of users and communicate with them at low cost [9]. On the other hand, compared to traditional advertising, interne...

  13. Enhancing Mental Models for Team Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Mathieu, Maynard, Rapp, & Mangos , 2010) propose that there are two types of TMM that essentially represent two domains of knowledge, one that is task... Mangos , P. M. (2010). Interactive effects of team and task shared mental models as related to air traffic controllers’ collective efficacy and...Sexton, J. B., & Helmreich, R. L. (1999). Analysing cockpit communication: The links between language , performance, error, and workload. Paper

  14. ACOUSTIC EFFECTS ON BINARY AEROELASTICITY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kok Hwa Yu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Acoustics is the science concerned with the study of sound. The effects of sound on structures attract overwhelm interests and numerous studies were carried out in this particular area. Many of the preliminary investigations show that acoustic pressure produces significant influences on structures such as thin plate, membrane and also high-impedance medium like water (and other similar fluids. Thus, it is useful to investigate the structure response with the presence of acoustics on aircraft, especially on aircraft wings, tails and control surfaces which are vulnerable to flutter phenomena. The present paper describes the modeling of structural-acoustic interactions to simulate the external acoustic effect on binary flutter model. Here, the binary flutter model which illustrated as a rectangular wing is constructed using strip theory with simplified unsteady aerodynamics involving flap and pitch degree of freedom terms. The external acoustic excitation, on the other hand, is modeled using four-node quadrilateral isoparametric element via finite element approach. Both equations then carefully coupled and solved using eigenvalue solution. The mentioned approach is implemented in MATLAB and the outcome of the simulated result are later described, analyzed and illustrated in this paper.

  15. Atomic Models for Motional Stark Effects Diagnostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gu, M F; Holcomb, C; Jayakuma, J; Allen, S; Pablant, N A; Burrell, K

    2007-07-26

    We present detailed atomic physics models for motional Stark effects (MSE) diagnostic on magnetic fusion devices. Excitation and ionization cross sections of the hydrogen or deuterium beam traveling in a magnetic field in collisions with electrons, ions, and neutral gas are calculated in the first Born approximation. The density matrices and polarization states of individual Stark-Zeeman components of the Balmer {alpha} line are obtained for both beam into plasma and beam into gas models. A detailed comparison of the model calculations and the MSE polarimetry and spectral intensity measurements obtained at the DIII-D tokamak is carried out. Although our beam into gas models provide a qualitative explanation for the larger {pi}/{sigma} intensity ratios and represent significant improvements over the statistical population models, empirical adjustment factors ranging from 1.0-2.0 must still be applied to individual line intensities to bring the calculations into full agreement with the observations. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that beam into gas measurements can be used successfully as calibration procedures for measuring the magnetic pitch angle through {pi}/{sigma} intensity ratios. The analyses of the filter-scan polarization spectra from the DIII-D MSE polarimetry system indicate unknown channel and time dependent light contaminations in the beam into gas measurements. Such contaminations may be the main reason for the failure of beam into gas calibration on MSE polarimetry systems.

  16. Effective field theory and the quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, Loyal; Ha, Phuoc; Jaczko, Gregory

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the connections between the quark model (QM) and the description of hadrons in the low-momentum limit of heavy-baryon effective field theory in QCD. By using a three-flavor-index representation for the effective baryon fields, we show that the 'nonrelativistic' constituent QM for baryon masses and moments is completely equivalent through O(m s ) to a parametrization of the relativistic field theory in a general spin-flavor basis. The flavor and spin variables can be identified with those of effective valence quarks. Conversely, the spin-flavor description clarifies the structure and dynamical interpretation of the chiral expansion in effective field theory, and provides a direct connection between the field theory and the semirelativistic models for hadrons used in successful dynamical calculations. This allows dynamical information to be incorporated directly into the chiral expansion. We find, for example, that the striking success of the additive QM for baryon magnetic moments is a consequence of the relative smallness of the non-additive spin-dependent corrections

  17. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonjes, David J., E-mail: david.tonjes@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States); Waste Reduction and Management Institute, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 (United States); Center for Bioenergy Research and Development, Advanced Energy Research and Technology Center, Stony Brook University, 1000 Innovation Rd., Stony Brook, NY 11794-6044 (United States); Mallikarjun, Sreekanth, E-mail: sreekanth.mallikarjun@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets.

  18. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonjes, David J.; Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets

  19. Cost effectiveness of recycling: a systems model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonjes, David J; Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

    2013-11-01

    Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling cellular effects of coal pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop and test models for the dose and dose-rate dependence of biological effects of coal pollutants on mammalian cells in tissue culture. Particular attention is given to the interaction of pollutants with the genetic material (deoxyribonucleic acid, or NDA) in the cell. Unlike radiation, which can interact directly with chromatin, chemical pollutants undergo numerous changes before the ultimate carcinogen becomes covalently bound to the DNA. Synthetic vesicles formed from a phospholipid bilayer are being used to investigate chemical transformations that may occur during the transport of pollutants across cellular membranes. The initial damage to DNA is rapidly modified by enzymatic repair systems in most living organisms. A model has been developed for predicting the effects of excision repair on the survival of human cells exposed to chemical carcinogens. In addition to the excision system, normal human cells also have tolerance mechanisms that permit continued growth and division of cells without removal of the damage. We are investigating the biological effect of damage passed to daughter cells by these tolerance mechanisms

  1. Modeling terahertz heating effects on water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torben T.L.; Withayachumnankul, Withawat; Jepsen, Peter Uhd

    2010-01-01

    down to a spot with a diameter of 0.5 mm, we find that the steadystate temperature increase per milliwatt of transmitted power is 1.8◦C/mW. A quantum cascade laser can produce a CW beam in the order of several milliwatts and this motivates the need to estimate the effect of beam power on the sample...... temperature. For THz time domain systems, we indicate how to use our model as a worst-case approximation based on the beam average power. It turns out that THz pulses created from photoconductive antennas give a negligible increase in temperature. As biotissue contains a high water content, this leads...... to a discussion of worst-case predictions for THz heating of the human body in order to motivate future detailed study. An open source Matlab implementation of our model is freely available for at www.eleceng.adelaide.edu.au/thz...

  2. Behavioral effects in room evacuation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossetti, V.; Bouzat, S.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2017-08-01

    In this work we study a model for the evacuation of pedestrians from an enclosure considering a continuous space substrate and discrete time. We analyze the influence of behavioral features that affect the use of the empty space, that can be linked to the attitudes or characters of the pedestrians. We study how the interaction of different behavioral profiles affects the needed time to evacuate completely a room and the occurrence of clogging. We find that neither fully egotistic nor fully cooperative attitudes are optimal from the point of view of the crowd. In contrast, intermediate behaviors provide lower evacuation times. This leads us to identify some phenomena closely analogous to the faster-is-slower effect. The proposed model allows for distinguishing between the role of the attitudes in the search for empty space and the attitudes in the conflicts.

  3. Effective hamiltonian calculations using incomplete model spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, S.; Mukherjee, D.

    1987-01-01

    It appears that the danger of encountering ''intruder states'' is substantially reduced if an effective hamiltonian formalism is developed for incomplete model spaces (IMS). In a Fock-space approach, the proof a ''connected diagram theorem'' is fairly straightforward with exponential-type of ansatze for the wave-operator W, provided the normalization chosen for W is separable. Operationally, one just needs a suitable categorization of the Fock-space operators into ''diagonal'' and ''non-diagonal'' parts that is generalization of the corresponding procedure for the complete model space. The formalism is applied to prototypical 2-electron systems. The calculations have been performed on the Cyber 205 super-computer. The authors paid special attention to an efficient vectorization for the construction and solution of the resulting coupled non-linear equations

  4. Modelling heating effects in cryocooled protein crystals

    CERN Document Server

    Nicholson, J; Fayz, K; Fell, B; Garman, E

    2001-01-01

    With the application of intense X-ray beams from third generation synchrotron sources, damage to cryocooled macromolecular crystals is being observed more commonly . In order to fully utilize synchrotron facilities now available for studying biological crystals, it is essential to understand the processes involved in radiation damage and beam heating so that, if possible, action can be taken to slow the rate of damage. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been applied to model the heating effects of X-rays on cryocooled protein crystals, and to compare the relative cooling efficiencies of nitrogen and helium.

  5. Insider safeguards effectiveness model (ISEM). User's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boozer, D.D.; Engi, D.

    1977-11-01

    A comprehensive presentation of the ISEM computer program is provided. ISEM was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a fixed-site facility safeguards system in coping with the theft, sabotage, or dispersal of radiological material by a single person who has authorized access to the facility. This insider may be aided by a group of insiders who covertly degrade sensor systems. Each ISEM run evaluates safeguards system performance for a particular scenario specified by the user. The dispatching of guards following alarms and their interaction with the insider are explicitly treated by the model

  6. A model for effective intergovernmental planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, R.C.

    1991-01-01

    Effective intergovernmental planning processes are essential to the resolution of potential affects created by federal projects. Intergovernmental planning for the proposed Yucca Mountain High-level Nuclear Waste Repository has not been effective to date. In this paper, two successful planning efforts are described. The common elements of these processes are analyzed to provide a model that can be used for the resolution of impacts from other projects. Management authorities of the entities involved should establish a working group to conduct the intergovernmental planning. The parties must identify issues that can be resolved through intergovernmental planning. Clear management authority and direction to the staff participating the planning process is essential. Issues which cannot be resolved should not be included in the goals of the working group. Funding to support the planning process is essential

  7. Modeling of Organic Effects on Aerosols Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caboussat, A.; Amundson, N. R.; He, J.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2006-05-01

    Over the last two decades, a series of modules has been developed in the atmospheric modeling community to predict the phase transition, multistage growth phenomena, crystallization and evaporation of inorganic aerosols. In the same time, the water interactions of particles containing organic constituents have been recognized as an important factor for aerosol activation and cloud formation. However, the research on hygroscopicity of organic-containing aerosols, motivated by the organic effect on aerosol growth and activation, has gathered much less attention. We present here a new model (UHAERO), that is both efficient and rigorously computes phase separation and liquid-liquid equilibrium for organic particles, as well as the dynamics partitioning between gas and particulate phases, with emphasis on the role of water vapor in the gas-liquid partitioning. The model does not rely on any a priori specification of the phases present in certain atmospheric conditions. The determination of the thermodynamic equilibrium is based on the minimization of the Gibbs free energy. The mass transfer between the particle and the bulk gas phase is dynamically driven by the difference between bulk gas pressure and the gas pressure at the surface of a particle. The multicomponent phase equilibrium for a closed organic aerosol system at constant temperature and pressure and for specified feeds is the solution to the liquid-liquid equilibrium problem arising from the constrained minimization of the Gibbs free energy. A geometrical concept of phase simplex (phase separation) is introduced to characterize the thermodynamic equilibrium. The computation of the mass fluxes is achieved by coupling the thermodynamics of the organic aerosol particle and the determination of the mass fluxes. Numerical results show the efficiency of the model, which make it suitable for insertion in global three- dimensional air quality models. The Gibbs free energy is modeled by the UNIFAC model to illustrate

  8. Modeling of interaction effects in granular systems

    CERN Document Server

    El-Hilo, M; Al-Rsheed, A

    2000-01-01

    Interaction effects on the magnetic behavior of granular solid systems are examined using a numerical model which is capable of predicting the field, temperature and time dependence of magnetization. In this work, interaction effects on the temperature dependence of time viscosity coefficient S(T) and formation of minor hysteresis loops have been studied. The results for the time- and temperature dependence of remanence ratio have showed that the distribution of energy barriers f(DELTA E) obtained depend critically on the strength and nature of interactions. These interactions-based changes in f(DELTA E) can easily give a temperature-independent behavior of S(T) when these changes give a 1/DELTA E behavior to the distribution of energy barriers. Thus, conclusions about macroscopic quantum tunneling must be carefully drawn when the temperature dependence of S(T) is used to probe for MQT effects. For minor hysteresis effects, the result shows that for the non-interacting case, no minor hysteresis loops occur an...

  9. Gyrofluid turbulence models with kinetic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorland, W.; Hammett, G.W.

    1992-12-01

    Nonlinear gyrofluid equations are derived by taking moments of the nonlinear, electrostatic gyrokinetic equation. The principal model presented includes evolution equations for the guiding center n, u parallel, T parallel, and T perpendicular along with an equation expressing the quasineutrality constraint. Additional evolution equations for higher moments are derived which may be used if greater accuracy is desired. The moment hierarchy is closed with a Landau-damping model which is equivalent to a multi-pole approximation to the plasma dispersion function, extended to include finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, new dissipative, nonlinear terms are found which model the perpendicular phase-mixing of the distribution function along contours of constant electrostatic potential. These ''FLR phase-mixing'' terms introduce a hyperviscosity-like damping ∝ k perpendicular 2 |Φ rvec k rvec k x rvec k'| which should provide a physics-based damping mechanism at high k perpendicular ρ which is potentially as important as the usual polarization drift nonlinearity. The moments are taken in guiding center space to pick up the correct nonlinear FLR terms and the gyroaveraging of the shear. The equations are solved with a nonlinear, three dimensional initial value code. Linear results are presented, showing excellent agreement with linear gyrokinetic theory

  10. Gyrofluid turbulence models with kinetic effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorland, W.; Hammett, G.W.

    1992-12-01

    Nonlinear gyrofluid equations are derived by taking moments of the nonlinear, electrostatic gyrokinetic equation. The principal model presented includes evolution equations for the guiding center n, u{parallel}, T{parallel}, and T{perpendicular} along with an equation expressing the quasineutrality constraint. Additional evolution equations for higher moments are derived which may be used if greater accuracy is desired. The moment hierarchy is closed with a Landau-damping model which is equivalent to a multi-pole approximation to the plasma dispersion function, extended to include finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, new dissipative, nonlinear terms are found which model the perpendicular phase-mixing of the distribution function along contours of constant electrostatic potential. These ``FLR phase-mixing`` terms introduce a hyperviscosity-like damping {proportional_to} k{sub {perpendicular}}{sup 2}{vert_bar}{Phi}{sub {rvec k}}{rvec k} {times}{rvec k}{prime}{vert_bar} which should provide a physics-based damping mechanism at high k{perpendicular}{rho} which is potentially as important as the usual polarization drift nonlinearity. The moments are taken in guiding center space to pick up the correct nonlinear FLR terms and the gyroaveraging of the shear. The equations are solved with a nonlinear, three dimensional initial value code. Linear results are presented, showing excellent agreement with linear gyrokinetic theory.

  11. Effective business models for electric vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilescu Ileana

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The proposed study aims to use asyncretic and synthetic approach of two elements that have an intrinsic efficiency value: business models and electric vehicles. Our approach seeks to circumscribe more widespread concerns globally - on the one hand, to oil shortages and climate change - and on the other hand, economic efficiency to business models customized to new types of mobility. New “electric” cars projects besiege the traditional position of the conventional car. In the current economy context the concept of efficiency of business models is quite different from what it meant in a traditional sense, particularly because of new technological fields. The arguments put forward by us will be both factual and emotional. Therefore, we rely on interviews and questionnaires designed to fit significantly to the point of the study. Research in the field of new propulsion systems for vehicles has been exploring various possibilities lately, such as: electricity, hydrogen, compressed air, biogas, etc. Theoretically or in principle, it is possible for tomorrow’s vehicles to be driven by the widest variety if resources. A primary goal of our study would be to theoretically reconsider some of the contemporary entrepreneurship coordinates and secondly to provide minimum guidance for decision-making of businesses that will operate in the field of electric mobility. To achieve this, we shall specifically analyze an electric mobility system but in parallel we will address business models that lend themselves effectively on aspects of this field. With a methodology based on questionnaires that had to overcome the conventional mechanism using some of the most unusual ingredients, we hope that the results of our research will successfully constitute a contribution to the goals and especially as a means of managerial orientation for entrepreneurs in the Romanian market.

  12. Modeling nuclear volume isotope effects in crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauble, Edwin A.

    2013-01-01

    Mass-independent isotope fractionations driven by differences in volumes and shapes of nuclei (the field shift effect) are known in several elements and are likely to be found in more. All-electron relativistic electronic structure calculations can predict this effect but at present are computationally intensive and limited to modeling small gas phase molecules and clusters. Density functional theory, using the projector augmented wave method (DFT-PAW), has advantages in greater speed and compatibility with a three-dimensional periodic boundary condition while preserving information about the effects of chemistry on electron densities within nuclei. These electron density variations determine the volume component of the field shift effect. In this study, DFT-PAW calculations are calibrated against all-electron, relativistic Dirac–Hartree–Fock, and coupled-cluster with single, double (triple) excitation methods for estimating nuclear volume isotope effects. DFT-PAW calculations accurately reproduce changes in electron densities within nuclei in typical molecules, when PAW datasets constructed with finite nuclei are used. Nuclear volume contributions to vapor–crystal isotope fractionation are calculated for elemental cadmium and mercury, showing good agreement with experiments. The nuclear-volume component of mercury and cadmium isotope fractionations between atomic vapor and montroydite (HgO), cinnabar (HgS), calomel (Hg2Cl2), monteponite (CdO), and the CdS polymorphs hawleyite and greenockite are calculated, indicating preferential incorporation of neutron-rich isotopes in more oxidized, ionically bonded phases. Finally, field shift energies are related to Mössbauer isomer shifts, and equilibrium mass-independent fractionations for several tin-bearing crystals are calculated from 119Sn spectra. Isomer shift data should simplify calculations of mass-independent isotope fractionations in other elements with Mössbauer isotopes, such as platinum and uranium

  13. Simple model of the slingshot effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Fiore

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We present a detailed quantitative description of the recently proposed “slingshot effect.” Namely, we determine a broad range of conditions under which the impact of a very short and intense laser pulse normally onto a low-density plasma (or matter locally completely ionized into a plasma by the pulse causes the expulsion of a bunch of surface electrons in the direction opposite to the one of propagation of the pulse, and the detailed, ready-for-experiments features of the expelled electrons (energy spectrum, collimation, etc. The effect is due to the combined actions of the ponderomotive force and the huge longitudinal field arising from charge separation. Our predictions are based on estimating 3D corrections to a simple, yet powerful plane 2-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD model where the equations to be solved are reduced to a system of Hamilton equations in one dimension (or a collection of which become autonomous after the pulse has overcome the electrons. Experimental tests seem to be at hand. If confirmed by the latter, the effect would provide a new extraction and acceleration mechanism for electrons, alternative to traditional radio-frequency-based or Laser-Wake-Field ones.

  14. Estimating, Testing, and Comparing Specific Effects in Structural Equation Models: The Phantom Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macho, Siegfried; Ledermann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The phantom model approach for estimating, testing, and comparing specific effects within structural equation models (SEMs) is presented. The rationale underlying this novel method consists in representing the specific effect to be assessed as a total effect within a separate latent variable model, the phantom model that is added to the main…

  15. Optimal Scaling of Interaction Effects in Generalized Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rosmalen, Joost; Koning, Alex J.; Groenen, Patrick J. F.

    2009-01-01

    Multiplicative interaction models, such as Goodman's (1981) RC(M) association models, can be a useful tool for analyzing the content of interaction effects. However, most models for interaction effects are suitable only for data sets with two or three predictor variables. Here, we discuss an optimal scaling model for analyzing the content of…

  16. A Comparison of Teacher Effectiveness Measures Calculated Using Three Multilevel Models for Raters Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Beretvas, S. Natasha

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the use of cross-classified random effects models (CCrem) and cross-classified multiple membership random effects models (CCMMrem) to model rater bias and estimate teacher effectiveness. Effect estimates are compared using CTT versus item response theory (IRT) scaling methods and three models (i.e., conventional multilevel…

  17. A synapse memristor model with forgetting effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Chen, Yiran; Wen, Shiping; Qi, Jiangtao

    2013-01-01

    In this Letter we improved the ion diffusion term proposed in literature and redesigned the previous model as a dynamical model with two more internal state variables ‘forgetting rate’ and ‘retention’ besides the original variable ‘conductance’. The new model can not only describe the basic memory ability of memristor but also be able to capture the new finding forgetting behavior in memristor. And different from the previous model, the transition from short term memory to long term memory is also defined by the new model. Besides, the new model is better matched with the physical memristor (Pd/WOx/W) than the previous one.

  18. A synapse memristor model with forgetting effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Chen, Yiran; Wen, Shiping; Qi, Jiangtao

    2013-12-01

    In this Letter we improved the ion diffusion term proposed in literature [13] and redesigned the previous model as a dynamical model with two more internal state variables ‘forgetting rate’ and ‘retention’ besides the original variable ‘conductance’. The new model can not only describe the basic memory ability of memristor but also be able to capture the new finding forgetting behavior in memristor. And different from the previous model, the transition from short term memory to long term memory is also defined by the new model. Besides, the new model is better matched with the physical memristor (Pd/WOx/W) than the previous one.

  19. A synapse memristor model with forgetting effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Ling [The College of Computer, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China); Li, Chuandong, E-mail: licd@cqu.edu.cn [The College of Computer, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China); Huang, Tingwen [Texas A and M University at Qatar, Doha 5825 (Qatar); Chen, Yiran [Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15261 (United States); Wen, Shiping [School of Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China); Qi, Jiangtao [The College of Computer, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China)

    2013-12-17

    In this Letter we improved the ion diffusion term proposed in literature and redesigned the previous model as a dynamical model with two more internal state variables ‘forgetting rate’ and ‘retention’ besides the original variable ‘conductance’. The new model can not only describe the basic memory ability of memristor but also be able to capture the new finding forgetting behavior in memristor. And different from the previous model, the transition from short term memory to long term memory is also defined by the new model. Besides, the new model is better matched with the physical memristor (Pd/WOx/W) than the previous one.

  20. Family Constellation Effects on Interpersonal Trust and Sex Role Orientation among Firstborn and Only Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Elaine F.; And Others

    This study examined the effects of birth order on interpersonal trust and sex role orientation among firstborn and only children in late adolescence. The following hypotheses were posed: (1) only children will demonstrate higher degrees of interpersonal trust than firstborn children; (2) only children will show higher degrees of androgyny than…

  1. Effective stimuli for constructing reliable neuron models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaul Druckmann

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The rich dynamical nature of neurons poses major conceptual and technical challenges for unraveling their nonlinear membrane properties. Traditionally, various current waveforms have been injected at the soma to probe neuron dynamics, but the rationale for selecting specific stimuli has never been rigorously justified. The present experimental and theoretical study proposes a novel framework, inspired by learning theory, for objectively selecting the stimuli that best unravel the neuron's dynamics. The efficacy of stimuli is assessed in terms of their ability to constrain the parameter space of biophysically detailed conductance-based models that faithfully replicate the neuron's dynamics as attested by their ability to generalize well to the neuron's response to novel experimental stimuli. We used this framework to evaluate a variety of stimuli in different types of cortical neurons, ages and animals. Despite their simplicity, a set of stimuli consisting of step and ramp current pulses outperforms synaptic-like noisy stimuli in revealing the dynamics of these neurons. The general framework that we propose paves a new way for defining, evaluating and standardizing effective electrical probing of neurons and will thus lay the foundation for a much deeper understanding of the electrical nature of these highly sophisticated and non-linear devices and of the neuronal networks that they compose.

  2. Effective and efficient model clone detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Störrle, Harald

    2015-01-01

    Code clones are a major source of software defects. Thus, it is likely that model clones (i.e., duplicate fragments of models) have a significant negative impact on model quality, and thus, on any software created based on those models, irrespective of whether the software is generated fully...... automatically (“MDD-style”) or hand-crafted following the blueprint defined by the model (“MBSD-style”). Unfortunately, however, model clones are much less well studied than code clones. In this paper, we present a clone detection algorithm for UML domain models. Our approach covers a much greater variety...... of model types than existing approaches while providing high clone detection rates at high speed....

  3. A modelling framework for MSP-oriented cumulative effects assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Stefano Menegon; Daniel Depellegrin; Giulio Farella; Elena Gissi; Michol Ghezzo; Alessandro Sarretta; Chiara Venier; Andrea Barbanti

    2018-01-01

    This research presents a comprehensive Cumulative Eects Assessment (CEA) based on the Tools4MSP modelling framework tested for the Italian Adriatic Sea. The CEA incorporates ve methodological advancements: (1) linear and non-linear ecosystem response to anthropogenic pressures/effects, (2) modelling of additive, dominant and antagonist stressor effects, (3) implementation of a convolution distance model for stressor dispersion modelling, (4) application of a CEA backsourcing (CEA-B) model to ...

  4. Mixed effects in stochastic differential equation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; De Gaetano, Andrea

    2005-01-01

    maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes......maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes...

  5. Thermal effects in shales: measurements and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKinstry, H.A.

    1977-01-01

    Research is reported concerning thermal and physical measurements and theoretical modeling relevant to the storage of radioactive wastes in a shale. Reference thermal conductivity measurements are made at atmospheric pressure in a commercial apparatus; and equipment for permeability measurements has been developed, and is being extended with respect to measurement ranges. Thermal properties of shales are being determined as a function of temperature and pressures. Apparatus was developed to measure shales in two different experimental configurations. In the first, a disk 15 mm in diameter of the material is measured by a steady state technique using a reference material to measure the heat flow within the system. The sample is sandwiched between two disks of a reference material (single crystal quartz is being used initially as reference material). The heat flow is determined twice in order to determine that steady state conditions prevail; the temperature drop over the two references is measured. When these indicate an equal heat flow, the thermal conductivity of the sample can be calculated from the temperature difference of the two faces. The second technique is for determining effect of temperature in a water saturated shale on a larger scale. Cylindrical shale (or siltstone) specimens that are being studied (large for a laboratory sample) are to be heated electrically at the center, contained in a pressure vessel that will maintain a fixed water pressure around it. The temperature is monitored at many points within the shale sample. The sample dimensions are 25 cm diameter, 20 cm long. A micro computer system has been constructed to monitor 16 thermocouples to record variation of temperature distribution with time

  6. modeling the effect of bandwidth allocation on network performance

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modeling The Effect Of Bandwidth Allocation On Network Performance. MODELING THE EFFECT OF BANDWIDTH ... ABSTRACT. In this paper, a new channel capacity model for interference- limited systems was obtained .... congestion admission control, with the intent of minimizing energy consumption at each terminal.

  7. Receiver Prejudice and Model Ethnicity: Impact on Advertising Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Hsiu-Chen Sandra; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Assesses the effect of model ethnicity on prejudiced respondents, and thus on advertising effectiveness. Finds that, for the most part, use of Asian models does not cause prejudiced respondents to evaluate a product or advertisement more negatively than when White models are used. (SR)

  8. Optimal Scaling of Interaction Effects in Generalized Linear Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); A.J. Koning (Alex); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractMultiplicative interaction models, such as Goodman's RC(M) association models, can be a useful tool for analyzing the content of interaction effects. However, most models for interaction effects are only suitable for data sets with two or three predictor variables. Here, we discuss an

  9. Effect of GPS errors on Emission model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehmann, Anders; Gross, Allan

    n this paper we will show how Global Positioning Services (GPS) data obtained from smartphones can be used to model air quality in urban settings. The paper examines the uncertainty of smartphone location utilising GPS, and ties this location uncertainty to air quality models. The results presented...... in this paper indicates that the location error from using smartphones is within the accuracy needed to use the location data in air quality modelling. The nature of smartphone location data enables more accurate and near real time air quality modelling and monitoring. The location data is harvested from user...

  10. Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    , the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of  a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from  the micro-scale....

  11. Emergent universe model with dissipative effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, P. S.; Paul, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Emergent universe model is presented in general theory of relativity with isotropic fluid in addition to viscosity. We obtain cosmological solutions that permit emergent universe scenario in the presence of bulk viscosity that are described by either Eckart theory or Truncated Israel Stewart (TIS) theory. The stability of the solutions are also studied. In this case, the emergent universe (EU) model is analyzed with observational data. In the presence of viscosity, one obtains emergent universe scenario, which however is not permitted in the absence of viscosity. The EU model is compatible with cosmological observations.

  12. Advertising effects in Sznajd marketing model

    OpenAIRE

    Schulze, Christian

    2002-01-01

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market

  13. Modelling irradiation effects in fusion materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Victoria, M.; Dudarev, S.; Boutard, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    We review the current status of the European fusion materials modelling programme. We describe recent findings and outline potential areas for future development. Large-scale density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal the structure of the point defects in α-Fe, and highlight the crucial ....... Experiments aimed at validating the models will be carried out in the future using a multi-beam ion irradiation facility chosen for its versatility and rapid feedback....

  14. Force Modelling in Orthogonal Cutting Considering Flank Wear Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathod, Kanti Bhikhubhai; Lalwani, Devdas I.

    2017-05-01

    In the present work, an attempt has been made to provide a predictive cutting force model during orthogonal cutting by combining two different force models, that is, a force model for a perfectly sharp tool plus considering the effect of edge radius and a force model for a worn tool. The first force model is for a perfectly sharp tool that is based on Oxley's predictive machining theory for orthogonal cutting as the Oxley's model is for perfectly sharp tool, the effect of cutting edge radius (hone radius) is added and improve model is presented. The second force model is based on worn tool (flank wear) that was proposed by Waldorf. Further, the developed combined force model is also used to predict flank wear width using inverse approach. The performance of the developed combined total force model is compared with the previously published results for AISI 1045 and AISI 4142 materials and found reasonably good agreement.

  15. Review of health effects models for Level 3 PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Many international organizations have developed health risk models. Especially, as radiation-induced cancer is an important part among health effects, development has been focused on cancer risk model. This paper reviewed the cancer risk models of international agencies; United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Moreover, as pre-research for improving the health risk model in Korea, this paper analyzed the three methodologies and specific details in modeling. International agencies have developed radiation-induced cancer risk model reflecting the recent A-bomb survivor LSS data. This paper reviewed the recent cancer risk model of UNSCEAR, NAS and ICRP. All three models were based on ERR and EAR model in the form of a multiplication of dose-response model and modification function. Lifetime risk was calculated as a function of exposure age and gender.

  16. The Effect of Physical Attractiveness of Models on Advertising Effectiveness for Male and Female Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Chia-Ching; Chang, Chih-Hsiang

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of advertising with physically attractive models on male and female adolescents. The findings suggest that highly attractive models are less effective than those who are normally attractive. Implications of social comparison are discussed.

  17. Integrating Effects-Based and Attrition-Based Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    DeGregorio, Edward A; Janssen, Raymond A; Wagenhals, Lee W; Messier, Richard H

    2004-01-01

    .... Modeling the NCW EBO process attempts to codify the belief structure and reasoning of adversaries and their cause-effect relationships with US and coalition actions, including mitigating undesired effects...

  18. Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

    1990-01-01

    A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

  19. Effective model of nonlinear circuit quantum electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigg, Simon; Devoret, Michel; Girvin, Steven

    2012-02-01

    Superconducting electronic circuits containing nonlinear elements such as Josephson junctions are of interest for quantum information processing. The low-energy spectrum of such circuits can now be measured to a precision of better than one part per million. A precise knowledge of their Hamiltonian that goes beyond current models is thus desirable. In this talk I will show how to quantize a superconducting, weakly nonlinear circuit from the knowledge of its classical linear admittance matrix. This approach represents a change of paradigm in circuit quantum electrodynamics and may potentially become a useful alternative to the standard models based on the language of atomic physics and quantum optics.

  20. Atmospheric characteristics essential for health effects modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, N.S.

    1977-01-01

    Factors to be considered in evaluating the possible consequences of exposure of human populations to radioactive aerosols are reviewed. Mathematical models of the mechanisms of radioinduced carcinogenesis, tissue deposition and lung clearance of radioactive aerosols, and meteorological parameters affecting the diffusion of radioactive aerosols in the atmosphere are discussed

  1. Enhanced battery model including temperature effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosca, B.; Wilkins, S.

    2013-01-01

    Within electric and hybrid vehicles, batteries are used to provide/buffer the energy required for driving. However, battery performance varies throughout the temperature range specific to automotive applications, and as such, models that describe this behaviour are required. This paper presents a

  2. A Connectionist Model of Instructional Feedback Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clariana, Roy B.

    Connectionist models apply various mathematical rules within neural network computer simulations in an effort, among other things, to mimic and describe human memory associations and learning. Learning involves the interaction of information provided by instruction with existing information already in the learner's memory (Ausubel, 1968; Bruner,…

  3. Effective models for excitons in carbon nanotubes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornean, Horia; Duclos, Pierre; Ricaud, Benjamin

    2007-01-01

    We analyse the low lying spectrum of a model of excitons in carbon nanotubes. Consider two particles with opposite charges and a Coulomb self-interaction, placed on an infinitely long cylinder. If the cylinder radius becomes small, the low lying spectrum of their relative motion is well described...

  4. Bilinear Mixed Effects Models for Dyadic Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoff, Peter D

    2003-01-01

    This article discusses the use of a symmetric multiplicative interaction effect to capture certain types of third-order dependence patterns often present in social networks and other dyadic datasets...

  5. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling: individualization and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olofsen, Erik; Dinges, David F; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2004-03-01

    The development of biomathematical models for the prediction of fatigue and performance relies on statistical techniques to analyze experimental data and model simulations. Statistical models of empirical data have adjustable parameters with a priori unknown values. Interindividual variability in estimates of those values requires a form of smoothing. This traditionally consists of averaging observations across subjects, or fitting a model to the data of individual subjects first and subsequently averaging the parameter estimates. However, the standard errors of the parameter estimates are assessed inaccurately by such averaging methods. The reason is that intra- and inter-individual variabilities are intertwined. They can be separated by mixed-effects modeling in which model predictions are not only determined by fixed effects (usually constant parameters or functions of time) but also by random effects, describing the sampling of subject-specific parameter values from probability distributions. By estimating the parameters of the distributions of the random effects, mixed-effects models can describe experimental observations involving multiple subjects properly (i.e., yielding correct estimates of the standard errors) and parsimoniously (i.e., estimating no more parameters than necessary). Using a Bayesian approach, mixed-effects models can be "individualized" as observations are acquired that capture the unique characteristics of the individual at hand. Mixed-effects models, therefore, have unique advantages in research on human neurobehavioral functions, which frequently show large inter-individual differences. To illustrate this we analyzed laboratory neurobehavioral performance data acquired during sleep deprivation, using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The results serve to demonstrate the usefulness of mixed-effects modeling for data-driven development of individualized predictive models of fatigue and performance.

  6. Generalized Degrees of Freedom and Adaptive Model Selection in Linear Mixed-Effects Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Shen, Xiaotong; Mumford, Sunni L

    2012-03-01

    Linear mixed-effects models involve fixed effects, random effects and covariance structure, which require model selection to simplify a model and to enhance its interpretability and predictability. In this article, we develop, in the context of linear mixed-effects models, the generalized degrees of freedom and an adaptive model selection procedure defined by a data-driven model complexity penalty. Numerically, the procedure performs well against its competitors not only in selecting fixed effects but in selecting random effects and covariance structure as well. Theoretically, asymptotic optimality of the proposed methodology is established over a class of information criteria. The proposed methodology is applied to the BioCycle study, to determine predictors of hormone levels among premenopausal women and to assess variation in hormone levels both between and within women across the menstrual cycle.

  7. The effect of Cordia platythyrsa on various experimental models of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ned

    2014-01-08

    Jan 8, 2014 ... investigating the analgesic and anti-inflammatory properties of C. platythyrsa using various animal models: writhing test ... inhibited acetic acid-induced pain though these effects were weaker than the effects of morphine. Although, the ..... visceral pain model is used generally for screening compounds for ...

  8. Modeling the effects of study abroad programs on college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvin H. Yu; Garry E. Chick; Duarte B. Morais; Chung-Hsien Lin

    2009-01-01

    This study explored the possibility of modeling the effects of a study abroad program on students from a university in the northeastern United States. A program effect model was proposed after conducting an extensive literature review and empirically examining a sample of 265 participants in 2005. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA),...

  9. Effect of Constructivist - Based Instructional Model on Students ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A quasi-experimental, non-equivalent group control design involving two intact classes were used to determine the effect of constructivist-based instructional model-Generative Learning Model (GLM) on students' conceptual change and knowledge retention in chemistry. Effect of GLM on gender is also monitored.

  10. Effective Reading and Writing Instruction: A Focus on Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Kelley; Berkeley, Sheri

    2012-01-01

    When providing effective reading and writing instruction, teachers need to provide explicit modeling. Modeling is particularly important when teaching students to use cognitive learning strategies. Examples of how teachers can provide specific, explicit, and flexible instructional modeling is presented in the context of two evidence-based…

  11. Seventh Grade Students' Mental Models of the Greenhouse Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Choi, Soyoung; Niyogi, Dev; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2011-01-01

    This constructivist study investigates 225 student drawings and explanations from three different schools in the midwest in the US, to identify seventh grade students' mental models of the greenhouse effect. Five distinct mental models were derived from an inductive analysis of the content of the students' drawings and explanations: Model 1, a…

  12. Environmental Radiation Effects on Mammals A Dynamical Modeling Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Smirnova, Olga A

    2010-01-01

    This text is devoted to the theoretical studies of radiation effects on mammals. It uses the framework of developed deterministic mathematical models to investigate the effects of both acute and chronic irradiation in a wide range of doses and dose rates on vital body systems including hematopoiesis, small intestine and humoral immunity, as well as on the development of autoimmune diseases. Thus, these models can contribute to the development of the system and quantitative approaches in radiation biology and ecology. This text is also of practical use. Its modeling studies of the dynamics of granulocytopoiesis and thrombocytopoiesis in humans testify to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in the investigation and prediction of radiation effects on these hematopoietic lines. These models, as well as the properly identified models of other vital body systems, could provide a better understanding of the radiation risks to health. The modeling predictions will enable the implementation of more ef...

  13. SOME THEORETICAL MODELS EXPLAINING ADVERTISING EFFECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Vasilica Magdalena SOMEŞFĂLEAN

    2014-01-01

    Persuade clients is still the main focus of the companies, using a set of methods and techniques designed to influence their behavior, in order to obtain better results (profits) over a longer period of time. Since the late nineteenth - early twentieth century, the american E.St.Elmo Lewis, considered a pioneer in advertising and sales, developed the first theory, AIDA model, later used by marketers and advertisers to develop a marketing communications strategy. Later studies have developed o...

  14. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

  15. Life course models: improving interpretation by consideration of total effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael J; Popham, Frank

    2017-06-01

    Life course epidemiology has used models of accumulation and critical or sensitive periods to examine the importance of exposure timing in disease aetiology. These models are usually used to describe the direct effects of exposures over the life course. In comparison with consideration of direct effects only, we show how consideration of total effects improves interpretation of these models, giving clearer notions of when it will be most effective to intervene. We show how life course variation in the total effects depends on the magnitude of the direct effects and the stability of the exposure. We discuss interpretation in terms of total, direct and indirect effects and highlight the causal assumptions required for conclusions as to the most effective timing of interventions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  16. Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293-308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing

  17. Improved Inference of Heteroscedastic Fixed Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshan Saeed

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Heteroscedasticity is a stern problem that distorts estimation and testing of panel data model (PDM. Arellano (1987 proposed the White (1980 estimator for PDM with heteroscedastic errors but it provides erroneous inference for the data sets including high leverage points. In this paper, our attempt is to improve heteroscedastic consistent covariance matrix estimator (HCCME for panel dataset with high leverage points. To draw robust inference for the PDM, our focus is to improve kernel bootstrap estimators, proposed by Racine and MacKinnon (2007. The Monte Carlo scheme is used for assertion of the results.

  18. Model Equations of Shape Memory Effect - Nitinol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Vela

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Even it has been already confirmed that SMA’s have high potential for robotic actuators, actuators included in space robotics, underwater robotics, robotics for logistics, safety, as well as “green robotics” (robotics for the environment, energy conservation, sustainable development or agriculture, the number of applications of SMA-based actuators is still quite small, especially in applications in which their large strains, high specific work output and structural integration potential are useful,. The paper presents a formulated mathematical model calculated for binary SMA (Ni-Ti, helpful to estimate the stress distribution along with the transformation ratio of a SMA active element.

  19. Modeling of Dissolution Effects on Waterflooding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexeev, Artem; Shapiro, Alexander; Thomsen, Kaj

    2015-01-01

    Physico-chemical interactions between the fluid and reservoir rock due to the presence of active components in the injected brine produce changes within the reservoir and can significantly impact the fluid flow. We have developed a 1D numerical model for waterflooding accounting for dissolution...... and precipitation of the components. Extending previous studies, we consider an arbitrary chemical non-equilibrium reaction-induced dissolution. We account for different individual volumes that a component has when precipitated or dissolved. This volume non-additivity also affects the pressure and the flow rate......-additivity is found to be responsible for insignificant change in the velocity of the displacement front....

  20. The Rebound Effect: A Simulation Model of Telecommuting

    OpenAIRE

    Reitan, Fredrik Aadne

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims to highlight the relationship between telecommuting and the rebound effect with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. This was done by gathering and analyzing the latest research from various fields that could provide information about telecommuting and the rebound effect. By surveying these fields, an informative and well-documented framework for modeling telecommuting and the rebound effect was made possible. The simulation model simulated the adoption of telecommuting in Lo...

  1. Modeling Radiation Effectiveness for Inactivation of Bacillus Spores

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-17

    MODELING RADIATION EFFECTIVENESS FOR INACTIVATION OF BACILLUS SPORES DISSERTATION Emily A. Knight, Major, USAF AFIT-ENC-DS-15-S-001 DEPARTMENT OF THE...not subject to copyright protection in the United States. AFIT-ENC-DS-15-S-001 MODELING RADIATION EFFECTIVENESS FOR INACTIVATION OF BACILLUS SPORES...EFFECTIVENESS FOR INACTIVATION OF BACILLUS SPORES Emily A. Knight, B.A., M.S. Major, USAF Committee Membership: Dr. William P. Baker Chair Dr. Larry W

  2. Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...

  3. Modeling the ocean effect of geomagnetic storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Kuvshinov, A.

    2004-01-01

    At coastal sites, geomagnetic variations for periods shorter than a few days are strongly distorted by the conductivity of the nearby sea-water. This phenomena, known as the ocean (or coast) effect, is strongest in the magnetic vertical component. We demonstrate the ability to predict the ocean...... if the oceans are considered. Our analysis also indicates a significant local time asymmetry (i.e., contributions from spherical harmonics other than P-I(0)), especially during the main phase of the storm....

  4. Effective UV radiation from model calculations and measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feister, Uwe; Grewe, Rolf

    1994-01-01

    Model calculations have been made to simulate the effect of atmospheric ozone and geographical as well as meteorological parameters on solar UV radiation reaching the ground. Total ozone values as measured by Dobson spectrophotometer and Brewer spectrometer as well as turbidity were used as input to the model calculation. The performance of the model was tested by spectroradiometric measurements of solar global UV radiation at Potsdam. There are small differences that can be explained by the uncertainty of the measurements, by the uncertainty of input data to the model and by the uncertainty of the radiative transfer algorithms of the model itself. Some effects of solar radiation to the biosphere and to air chemistry are discussed. Model calculations and spectroradiometric measurements can be used to study variations of the effective radiation in space in space time. The comparability of action spectra and their uncertainties are also addressed.

  5. Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

  6. COMPUTER MODELLING OF ENERGY SAVING EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian JANCZAREK

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analysis of the dynamics of the heat transfer through the outer wall of the thermal technical spaces, taking into account the impact of the sinusoidal nature of the changes in atmospheric temperature. These temporal variations of the input on the outer surface of the chamber divider result at the output of the sinusoidal change on the inner wall of the room, but suitably suppressed and shifted in phase. Properly selected phase shift is clearly important for saving energy used for the operation associated with the maintenance of a specific regime of heat inside the thermal technical chamber support. Laboratory tests of the model and the actual object allowed for optimal design of the chamber due to the structure of the partition as well as due to the orientation of the geographical location of the chamber.

  7. Composite symmetry-protected topological order and effective models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nietner, A.; Krumnow, C.; Bergholtz, E. J.; Eisert, J.

    2017-12-01

    Strongly correlated quantum many-body systems at low dimension exhibit a wealth of phenomena, ranging from features of geometric frustration to signatures of symmetry-protected topological order. In suitable descriptions of such systems, it can be helpful to resort to effective models, which focus on the essential degrees of freedom of the given model. In this work, we analyze how to determine the validity of an effective model by demanding it to be in the same phase as the original model. We focus our study on one-dimensional spin-1 /2 systems and explain how nontrivial symmetry-protected topologically ordered (SPT) phases of an effective spin-1 model can arise depending on the couplings in the original Hamiltonian. In this analysis, tensor network methods feature in two ways: on the one hand, we make use of recent techniques for the classification of SPT phases using matrix product states in order to identify the phases in the effective model with those in the underlying physical system, employing Künneth's theorem for cohomology. As an intuitive paradigmatic model we exemplify the developed methodology by investigating the bilayered Δ chain. For strong ferromagnetic interlayer couplings, we find the system to transit into exactly the same phase as an effective spin-1 model. However, for weak but finite coupling strength, we identify a symmetry broken phase differing from this effective spin-1 description. On the other hand, we underpin our argument with a numerical analysis making use of matrix product states.

  8. Two-dimensional effects in nonlinear Kronig-Penney models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaididei, Yuri Borisovich; Christiansen, Peter Leth; Rasmussen, Kim

    1997-01-01

    An analysis of two-dimensional (2D) effects in the nonlinear Kronig-Penney model is presented. We establish an effective one-dimensional description of the 2D effects, resulting in a set of pseudodifferential equations. The stationary states of the 2D system and their stability is studied...

  9. Modeling Temporal Behavior of Awards Effect on Viewership of Movies

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Basmah

    2017-04-22

    The “rich get richer” effect is well-known in recommendation system. Popular items are recommended more, then purchased more, resulting in becoming even more popular over time. For example, we observe in Netflix data that awarded movies are more popular than non-awarded movies. Unlike other work focusing on making fair/neutralized recommendation, in this paper, we target on modeling the effect of awards on the viewership of movies. The main challenge of building such a model is that the effect on popularity changes over time with different intensity from movie to movie. Our proposed approach explicitly models the award effects for each movie and enables the recommendation system to provide a better ranked list of recommended movies. The results of an extensive empirical validation on Netflix and MovieLens data demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

  10. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    OpenAIRE

    Fok, Dennis; Paap, Richard; Franses, Philip Hans

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model. In this paper we put forward a representation of the attraction model, which allows for explicitly disentangling long-run from short-run effects. Our model also contains a second level, in which th...

  11. Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

    2016-01-01

    Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

  12. Effects of Sample Size, Estimation Methods, and Model Specification on Structural Equation Modeling Fit Indexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xitao; Wang, Lin; Thompson, Bruce

    1999-01-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation study investigated the effects on 10 structural equation modeling fit indexes of sample size, estimation method, and model specification. Some fit indexes did not appear to be comparable, and it was apparent that estimation method strongly influenced almost all fit indexes examined, especially for misspecified models. (SLD)

  13. Modeling the effects of annual influenza vaccination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.J.; Ackley, D.H.; Forrest, S. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Computer Science; Perelson, A.S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Theoretical Div.

    1998-12-31

    Although influenza vaccine efficacy is 70--90% in young healthy first-time vaccinees, the efficacy in repeat vaccinees has varied considerably. In some studies, vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was higher than in first-time vaccinees, whereas in other studies vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was significantly lower than in first-time vaccinees and sometimes no higher than in unvaccinated controls. It is known that the closeness of the antigenic match between the vaccine strain and the epidemic virus is important for vaccine effectiveness. In this study the authors show that the antigenic differences between a first vaccine strain and a second vaccine strain, and between the first vaccine strain and the epidemic strain, might account for the observed variation in attack rate among two-time vaccinees.

  14. Effect of suspension kinematic on 14 DOF vehicle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongpattananukul, T.; Chantharasenawong, C.

    2017-12-01

    Computer simulations play a major role in shaping modern science and engineering. They reduce time and resource consumption in new studies and designs. Vehicle simulations have been studied extensively to achieve a vehicle model used in minimum lap time solution. Simulation result accuracy depends on the abilities of these models to represent real phenomenon. Vehicles models with 7 degrees of freedom (DOF), 10 DOF and 14 DOF are normally used in optimal control to solve for minimum lap time. However, suspension kinematics are always neglected on these models. Suspension kinematics are defined as wheel movements with respect to the vehicle body. Tire forces are expressed as a function of wheel slip and wheel position. Therefore, the suspension kinematic relation is appended to the 14 DOF vehicle model to investigate its effects on the accuracy of simulate trajectory. Classical 14 DOF vehicle model is chosen as baseline model. Experiment data is collected from formula student style car test runs as baseline data for simulation and comparison between baseline model and model with suspension kinematic. Results show that in a single long turn there is an accumulated trajectory error in baseline model compared to model with suspension kinematic. While in short alternate turns, the trajectory error is much smaller. These results show that suspension kinematic had an effect on the trajectory simulation of vehicle. Which optimal control that use baseline model will result in inaccuracy control scheme.

  15. Efficient anisotropic wavefield extrapolation using effective isotropic models

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali

    2013-06-10

    Isotropic wavefield extrapolation is more efficient than anisotropic extrapolation, and this is especially true when the anisotropy of the medium is tilted (from the vertical). We use the kinematics of the wavefield, appropriately represented in the high-frequency asymptotic approximation by the eikonal equation, to develop effective isotropic models, which are used to efficiently and approximately extrapolate anisotropic wavefields using the isotropic, relatively cheaper, operators. These effective velocity models are source dependent and tend to embed the anisotropy in the inhomogeneity. Though this isotropically generated wavefield theoretically shares the same kinematic behavior as that of the first arrival anisotropic wavefield, it also has the ability to include all the arrivals resulting from a complex wavefield propagation. In fact, the effective models reduce to the original isotropic model in the limit of isotropy, and thus, the difference between the effective model and, for example, the vertical velocity depends on the strength of anisotropy. For reverse time migration (RTM), effective models are developed for the source and receiver fields by computing the traveltime for a plane wave source stretching along our source and receiver lines in a delayed shot migration implementation. Applications to the BP TTI model demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.

  16. The Development of Hierarchy of Effects Model in Advertising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Sukma Wijaya

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review the hierarchy of effects models in adverti-sing, especially the well-known model, AIDA (Attention, Interest, De-sire, and Action. Since its introduction by Lewis (1900 and generally attributed in the marketing and advertising literature by Strong (1925, the concept of AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model has been used by many researchers, both academicians and practitioners. The model is used to measure the effect of an advertisement. However, the deve-lopment of information technology has radically changed the way of how people communicate and socialize; as well as a paradigm shift from product-oriented marketing to consumer-oriented marketing or people-oriented marketing. Therefore, the variables in the hierarchy of effects model needs to be updated in respond to the latest develop-ments in the notice of public power as consumer audience. Based on deep literature review and reflective method, this paper introduces a new developed concept of hierarchy of effects model that was adop-ted from AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model, namely: AISDALSLove (At-tention, Interest, Search, Desire, Action, Like/dislike, Share, and Love/hate.

  17. The Development of Hierarchy of Effects Model in Advertising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Sukma Wijaya

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review the hierarchy of effects models in advertising, especially the well-known model, AIDA (Attention, Interest, Desire, and Action. Since its introduction by Lewis (1900 and generally attributed in the marketing and advertising literature by Strong (1925, the concept of AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model has been used by many researchers, both academicians and practitioners. The model is used to measure the effect of an advertisement. However, the development of information technology has radically changed the way of how people communicate and socialize; as well as a paradigm shift from product-oriented marketing to consumer-oriented marketing or people-oriented marketing. Therefore, the variables in the hierarchy of effects model needs to be updated in respond to the latest developments in the notice of public power as consumer audience. Based on deep literature review and reflective method, this paper introduces a new developed concept of hierarchy of effects model that was adopted from AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model, namely: AISDALSLove (At-tention, Interest, Search, Desire, Action, Like/dislike, Share, and Love/hate.

  18. Modelling the effects of road traffic safety measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Meng

    2006-05-01

    A model is presented for assessing the effects of traffic safety measures, based on a breakdown of the process in underlying components of traffic safety (risk and consequence), and five (speed and conflict related) variables that influence these components, and are influenced by traffic safety measures. The relationships between measures, variables and components are modelled as coefficients. The focus is on probabilities rather than historical statistics, although in practice statistics may be needed to find values for the coefficients. The model may in general contribute to improve insight in the mechanisms between traffic safety measures and their safety effects. More specifically it allows comparative analysis of different types of measures by defining an effectiveness index, based on the coefficients. This index can be used to estimate absolute effects of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) related measures from absolute effects of substitutional (in terms of safety effects) infrastructure measures.

  19. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits

  20. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  1. Comparison of potential models through heavy quark effective theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amundson, J.F.

    1995-01-01

    I calculate heavy-light decay constants in a nonrelativistic potential model. The resulting estimate of heavy quark symmetry breaking conflicts with similar estimates from lattice QCD. I show that a semirelativistic potential model eliminates the conflict. Using the results of heavy quark effective theory allows me to identify and compensate for shortcomings in the model calculations in addition to isolating the source of the differences in the two models. The results lead to a rule as to where the nonrelativistic quark model gives misleading predictions

  2. Dynamic modeling of hydrostatic guideway considering compressibility and inertia effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yikang; Mao, Kuanmin; Zhu, Yaming; Wang, Fengyun; Mao, Xiaobo; Li, Bin

    2015-03-01

    Hydrostatic guideways are used as an alternative to contact bearings due to high stiffness and high damping in heavy machine tools. To improve the dynamic characteristic of bearing structure, the dynamic modeling of the hydrostatic guidway should be accurately known. This paper presents a "mass-spring-Maxwell" model considering the effects of inertia, squeeze, compressibility and static bearing. To determine the dynamic model coefficients, numerical simulation of different cases between displacement and dynamic force of oil film are performed with fluent code. Simulation results show that hydrostatic guidway can be taken as a linear system when it is subjected to a small oscillation amplitude. Based on a dynamic model and numerical simulation, every dynamic model's parameters are calculated by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Identification results show that "mass-spring-damper" model is the most appropriate dynamic model of the hydrostatic guidway. This paper provides a reference and preparation for the analysis of the dynamic model of the similar hydrostatic bearings.

  3. General Friction Model Extended by the Effect of Strain Hardening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Chris V.; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels

    2016-01-01

    An extension to the general friction model proposed by Wanheim and Bay [1] to include the effect of strain hardening is proposed. The friction model relates the friction stress to the fraction of real contact area by a friction factor under steady state sliding. The original model for the real...... contact area as function of the normalized contact pressure is based on slip-line analysis and hence on the assumption of rigid-ideally plastic material behavior. In the present work, a general finite element model is established to, firstly, reproduce the original model under the assumption of rigid......-ideally plastic material, and secondly, to extend the solution by the influence of material strain hardening. This corresponds to adding a new variable and, therefore, a new axis to the general friction model. The resulting model is presented in a combined function suitable for e.g. finite element modeling...

  4. Nonlinear mixed-effects models for pharmacokinetic data analysis: assessment of the random-effects distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drikvandi, Reza

    2017-06-01

    Nonlinear mixed-effects models are frequently used for pharmacokinetic data analysis, and they account for inter-subject variability in pharmacokinetic parameters by incorporating subject-specific random effects into the model. The random effects are often assumed to follow a (multivariate) normal distribution. However, many articles have shown that misspecifying the random-effects distribution can introduce bias in the estimates of parameters and affect inferences about the random effects themselves, such as estimation of the inter-subject variability. Because random effects are unobservable latent variables, it is difficult to assess their distribution. In a recent paper we developed a diagnostic tool based on the so-called gradient function to assess the random-effects distribution in mixed models. There we evaluated the gradient function for generalized liner mixed models and in the presence of a single random effect. However, assessing the random-effects distribution in nonlinear mixed-effects models is more challenging, especially when multiple random effects are present, and therefore the results from linear and generalized linear mixed models may not be valid for such nonlinear models. In this paper, we further investigate the gradient function and evaluate its performance for such nonlinear mixed-effects models which are common in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. We use simulations as well as real data from an intensive pharmacokinetic study to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.

  5. Seismic model of Mars: Effects of hydration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zharkov, V. N.; Gudkova, T. V.

    2014-12-01

    The arguments according to which the Martian minerals are assumed to contain large amount of water in the mantle minerals are given. As for the Earth, these minerals may constitute about 60 wt% of the Martian mantle, and can be considered as main components in their zones. In the mantle of the Earth the molecular concentration of Fe is about 10%, and for the mantle of Mars - about 20%. Taking into account twofold increase of Fe in Martian silicates in comparison with the terrestrial minerals, we have extrapolated the available partial experimental data of the hydration effect on the compressional and shear velocities of seismic waves in forsterite (olivine) and its high pressure phases - wadsleyite and ringwoodite for Martian conditions. The presence of water in the mantle of Mars may lead to the noticeable widening of the olivine-wadsleite phase transition zone, thus the determination of the olivine-wadsleite phase transition width by seismological methods could get a direct indication on the presence of water in the mantle of Mars. To find out real estimates of water content in the mantle of Mars is a task for the future seismic missions. The results of this article are important for InSight mission that will land a geophysical station on Mars in 2016.

  6. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandrolini, L; Reggiani, U; Ogunsola, A

    2007-01-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed

  7. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandrolini, L.; Reggiani, U.; Ogunsola, A.

    2007-09-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed.

  8. Effect of Linked Rules on Business Process Model Understanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Wei; Indulska, Marta; Sadiq, Shazia

    2017-01-01

    of business processes has not been empirically evaluated. In this paper, we report on an experiment that investigates the effect of linked rules, a specific rule integration approach, on business process model understanding. Our results indicate that linked rules are associated with better time efficiency......Business process models are widely used in organizations by information systems analysts to represent complex business requirements and by business users to understand business operations and constraints. This understanding is extracted from graphical process models as well as business rules. Prior...... research advocated integrating business rules into business process models to improve the effectiveness of important organizational activities, such as developing shared understanding, effective communication, and process improvement. However, whether such integrated modeling can improve the understanding...

  9. Comparison of Power Generating Systems Using Feedback Effect Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Comparative assessment of various power systems can be treated as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In reality, there is interdependence among decision elements (e.g., decision goal, decision criteria, and decision alternatives). In our previous work, using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, a comprehensive assessment framework for national power systems has been developed. It was assumed in the AHP modeling that there is no interdependence among decision elements. In the present work, one of interdependence phenomena, feedback effect, is investigated in the context of network structures instead of one-way directional tree structures. Moreover, attitudes of decision-makers can be incorporated into the feedback effect modeling. The main objectives of this work are to develop a feedback effect modeling using an analytic network process (ANP) technique and to demonstrate the feedback effect using a numerical example in comparison to the hierarchy model

  10. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: intervention model fiscal year 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the researcher, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, ...

  11. The Effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard $S,T$ formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run~1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  12. The effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, John; Sanz, Verónica; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard S,T formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run 1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  13. Modeling Cable-Harness Effects on Spacecraft Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed research involves modeling the effects of cable-harnesses and wiring on the dynamics of spacecraft structures. As space structure mass decreases due to...

  14. Comparison of Power Generating Systems Using Feedback Effect Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Tae Woon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    Comparative assessment of various power systems can be treated as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In reality, there is interdependence among decision elements (e.g., decision goal, decision criteria, and decision alternatives). In our previous work, using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, a comprehensive assessment framework for national power systems has been developed. It was assumed in the AHP modeling that there is no interdependence among decision elements. In the present work, one of interdependence phenomena, feedback effect, is investigated in the context of network structures instead of one-way directional tree structures. Moreover, attitudes of decision-makers can be incorporated into the feedback effect modeling. The main objectives of this work are to develop a feedback effect modeling using an analytic network process (ANP) technique and to demonstrate the feedback effect using a numerical example in comparison to the hierarchy model.

  15. Modeling of Reverberation Effects for Radio Localization and Communications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinböck, Gerhard

    2013-01-01

    a recently proposed approach, we transcribe these models to electromagnetics and validate them experimentally following a systematic procedure. These transcribed models provide accurate predictions of the delay power spectrum in a typical office environment. Furthermore, they can predict changes...... into a distance dependent model of the delay power spectrum, which we then validate experimentally. From this model we derive secondary models that predict the received power, the mean delay, the rms delay spread and the kurtosis versus distance. The behavior of the diffuse component versus distance in indoor...... environment is linked to reverberation effects analog to reverberation effects observed in room acoustics and electromagnetic reverberation chambers. Reverberation models of room acoustics relate the decay rate of the diffuse component to the room geometry and an average absorption coefficient. Following...

  16. Enhancing treatment effectiveness through social modelling: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faasse, Kate; Perera, Anna; Loveys, Kate; Grey, Andrew; Petrie, Keith J

    2017-05-01

    Medical treatments take place in social contexts; however, little research has investigated how social modelling might influence treatment outcomes. This experimental pilot study investigated social modelling of treatment effectiveness and placebo treatment outcomes. Fifty-nine participants took part in the study, ostensibly examining the use of beta-blockers (actually placebos) for examination anxiety. Participants were randomly assigned to observe a female confederate report positive treatment effects (reduced heart rate, relaxed, calm) or feeling no different. Heart rate, anxiety and blood pressure were assessed, as were symptoms and attributed side effects. Heart rate decreased significantly more in the social modelling compared to control condition, p = .027 (d = .63), and there were trends towards effects in the same direction for both anxiety, p = .097 (d = .46), and systolic blood pressure, p = .077 (d = .51). Significant pre-post placebo differences in heart rate, anxiety and diastolic blood pressure were found in the social modelling group, ps  .28 (ds = .09-.59). Social observation of medication effectiveness enhanced placebo effectiveness in heart rate, and showed a trend towards enhancing treatment effectiveness in both anxiety and systolic blood pressure. Social modelling may have utility in enhancing the effectiveness of many active medical treatments.

  17. Sublethal toxicant effects with dynamic energy budget theory: model formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Muller, Erik B.; Nisbet, Roger M.; Berkley, Heather A.

    2009-01-01

    We develop and test a general modeling framework to describe the sublethal effects of pollutants by adding toxicity modules to an established dynamic energy budget (DEB) model. The DEB model describes the rates of energy acquisition and expenditure by individual organisms; the toxicity modules describe how toxicants affect these rates by changing the value of one or more DEB parameters, notably the parameters quantifying the rates of feeding and maintenance. We investigate four toxicity modul...

  18. Achievement emotions and academic performance: longitudinal models of reciprocal effects

    OpenAIRE

    Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Marsh, Herbert, W.; Murayama, Kou; Goetz, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    A reciprocal effects model linking emotion and achievement over time is proposed. The model was tested using five annual waves of the PALMA longitudinal study, which investigated adolescents’ development in mathematics (grades 5-9; N=3,425 German students; mean starting age=11.7 years; representative sample). Structural equation modeling showed that positive emotions (enjoyment, pride) positively predicted subsequent achievement (math end-of-the-year grades and test scores), and that achievem...

  19. Quantification of Model Uncertainty in Modeling Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Respiration Pulses to Simulate Birch Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshall, A. S.; Ye, M.; Niu, G. Y.; Barron-Gafford, G.

    2014-12-01

    A Bayesian framework is developed to quantify predictive uncertainty in environmental modeling caused by uncertainty in modeling scenarios, model structures, model parameters, and data. An example of using the framework to quantify model uncertainty is presented to simulate soil microbial respiration pulses in response to episodic rainfall pulses (the "Birch effect"). A total of five models are developed; they evolve from an existing four-carbon (C) pool model to models with additional C pools and recently developed models with explicit representations of soil moisture controls on C degradation and microbial uptake rates. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with generalized likelihood function (not Gaussian) are used to estimate posterior parameter distributions of the models, and the posterior parameter samples are used to evaluate probabilities of the models. The models with explicit representations of soil moisture controls outperform the other models. The models with additional C pools for accumulation of degraded C in the dry zone of the soil pore space result in a higher probability of reproducing the observed Birch pulses. A cross-validation is conducted to explore predictive performance of model averaging and of individual models. The Bayesian framework is mathematically general and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

  20. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  1. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

  2. Achievement Emotions and Academic Performance: Longitudinal Models of Reciprocal Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Marsh, Herbert W.; Murayama, Kou; Goetz, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    A reciprocal effects model linking emotion and achievement over time is proposed. The model was tested using five annual waves of the Project for the Analysis of Learning and Achievement in Mathematics (PALMA) longitudinal study, which investigated adolescents' development in mathematics (Grades 5-9; N = 3,425 German students; mean starting…

  3. The effect of cognitive modelling in the reduction of impulsive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the effect of cognitive modeling in the reduction of impulsive behaviour among primary school children. A total of twenty impulsive underachieving participants were randomly assigned to cognitive modeling and control groups. Different instruments comprising Impulsiveness Questionnaire for Children ...

  4. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  5. Using Dirichlet Processes for Modeling Heterogeneous Treatment Effects across Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miratrix, Luke; Feller, Avi; Pillai, Natesh; Pati, Debdeep

    2016-01-01

    Modeling the distribution of site level effects is an important problem, but it is also an incredibly difficult one. Current methods rely on distributional assumptions in multilevel models for estimation. There it is hoped that the partial pooling of site level estimates with overall estimates, designed to take into account individual variation as…

  6. The effect of longshore topographic variation on overwash modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McCall, R.; Plant, N.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes an application of the XBeach model to investigate the effect of longshore topographic variance on overwash. The model is used to simulate the morphological response of an eight-kilometer section of Santa Rosa Island, Florida, due to Hurricane Ivan (2004). The influence of

  7. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  8. Comparison of four nonlinear growth models for effective exploration ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tuoyo Aghomotsegin

    2016-10-05

    Oct 5, 2016 ... This study was conducted to compare the effectiveness for non-linear growth models designated as. Chapman-Richards, Gompertz, Logistic and von Bertalanffy for selection of fast-growing fish strain of turbot Scophthalmus maximus. These models were compared using the goodness of fit (the coefficient.

  9. Relative effectiveness of assertive training, modelling and their ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the Relative Effectiveness of Assertive Training (AT), modelling (M) and a combination of Assertive Training and Modelling (AT & M) techniques in improving the social skills of primary school isolates and consequently reduce their isolate behaviour. The study is a quasi experimental research that ...

  10. Personal Coaching: Reflection on a Model for Effective Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Kerryn

    2015-01-01

    The article "Personal Coaching: A Model for Effective Learning" (Griffiths, 2006) appeared in the "Journal of Learning Design" Volume 1, Issue 2 in 2006. Almost ten years on, Kerryn Griffiths reflects upon her original article. Specifically, Griffiths looks back at the combined coaching-learning model she suggested in her…

  11. The Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioural Counselling Model in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study focused on applying counselling models in managing adolescent psycho-social crisis. A laboratory approach using a simulated problem situation to determine the effectiveness of Cognitive-behavioural counselling model in managing psycho-social crisis and propensity to drug-abuse in adolescents was adopted ...

  12. Comparison of four nonlinear growth models for effective exploration ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to compare the effectiveness for non-linear growth models designated as Chapman-Richards, Gompertz, Logistic and von Bertalanffy for selection of fast-growing fish strain of turbot Scophthalmus maximus. These models were compared using the goodness of fit (the coefficient of determination ...

  13. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EFFECTIVE DISTANCE LEARNING IN HIGHER A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EFFECTIVE DISTANCE LEARNING IN HIGHER A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EFFECTIVE DISTANCE LEARNING IN HIGHER EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran FARAJOLLAHI

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims at presenting a conceptual model for effective distance learning in higher education. Findings of this research shows that an understanding of the technological capabilities and learning theories especially constructive theory and independent learning theory and communicative and interaction theory in Distance learning is an efficient factor in the planning of effective Distance learning in higher education. Considering the theoretical foundations of the present research, in the effective distance learning model, the learner is situated at the center of learning environment. For this purpose, the learner needs to be ready for successful learning and the teacher has to be ready to design the teaching- learning activities when they initially enter the environment. In the present model, group and individual active teaching-learning approach, timely feedback, using IT and eight types of interactions have been designed with respect to theoretical foundations and current university missions. From among the issues emphasized in this model, one can refer to the Initial, Formative and Summative evaluations. In an effective distance learning environment, evaluation should be part of the learning process and the feedback resulting from it should be used to improve learning. For validating the specified features, the opinions of Distance learning experts in Payame Noor, Shiraz, Science and Technology and Amirkabir Universities have been used which verified a high percentage of the statistical sample of the above mentioned features.

  14. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

  15. Two dimensional analytical model for a reconfigurable field effect transistor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjith, R.; Jayachandran, Remya; Suja, K. J.; Komaragiri, Rama S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents two-dimensional potential and current models for a reconfigurable field effect transistor (RFET). Two potential models which describe subthreshold and above-threshold channel potentials are developed by solving two-dimensional (2D) Poisson's equation. In the first potential model, 2D Poisson's equation is solved by considering constant/zero charge density in the channel region of the device to get the subthreshold potential characteristics. In the second model, accumulation charge density is considered to get above-threshold potential characteristics of the device. The proposed models are applicable for the device having lightly doped or intrinsic channel. While obtaining the mathematical model, whole body area is divided into two regions: gated region and un-gated region. The analytical models are compared with technology computer-aided design (TCAD) simulation results and are in complete agreement for different lengths of the gated regions as well as at various supply voltage levels.

  16. A mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedeker, Donald

    2003-05-15

    A mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression model is described for analysis of clustered or longitudinal nominal or ordinal response data. The model is parameterized to allow flexibility in the choice of contrasts used to represent comparisons across the response categories. Estimation is achieved using a maximum marginal likelihood (MML) solution that uses quadrature to numerically integrate over the distribution of random effects. An analysis of a psychiatric data set, in which homeless adults with serious mental illness are repeatedly classified in terms of their living arrangement, is used to illustrate features of the model. Copyright 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. A mathematical model of radiation effect on the immunity system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnova, O.A.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model, simulating the effect of ionizing radiation on the dynamics of humoral immune reaction is suggested. It represents the system of nonlinear differential equations and is realized in the form of program in Fortran computer language. The model describes the primary immune reaction of nonirradiated organism on T-independent antigen, reflects the postradiation lymphopoiesis dynamics in nonimmunized mammals, simulates the processes of injury and recovery of the humoral immunity system under the combined effect of ionizing radiation and antigenic stimulation. The model can be used for forecasting imminity state in irradiated mammals

  18. A Bayesian Network View on Nested Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fröhlich Holger

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Nested effects models (NEMs are a class of probabilistic models that were designed to reconstruct a hidden signalling structure from a large set of observable effects caused by active interventions into the signalling pathway. We give a more flexible formulation of NEMs in the language of Bayesian networks. Our framework constitutes a natural generalization of the original NEM model, since it explicitly states the assumptions that are tacitly underlying the original version. Our approach gives rise to new learning methods for NEMs, which have been implemented in the /Bioconductor package nem. We validate these methods in a simulation study and apply them to a synthetic lethality dataset in yeast.

  19. Electronic Model of a Ferroelectric Field Effect Transistor

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Todd C.; Ho, Fat Duen; Russell, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A pair of electronic models has been developed of a Ferroelectric Field Effect transistor. These models can be used in standard electrical circuit simulation programs to simulate the main characteristics of the FFET. The models use the Schmitt trigger circuit as a basis for their design. One model uses bipolar junction transistors and one uses MOSFET's. Each model has the main characteristics of the FFET, which are the current hysterisis with different gate voltages and decay of the drain current when the gate voltage is off. The drain current from each model has similar values to an actual FFET that was measured experimentally. T'he input and o Output resistance in the models are also similar to that of the FFET. The models are valid for all frequencies below RF levels. No attempt was made to model the high frequency characteristics of the FFET. Each model can be used to design circuits using FFET's with standard electrical simulation packages. These circuits can be used in designing non-volatile memory circuits and logic circuits and is compatible with all SPICE based circuit analysis programs. The models consist of only standard electrical components, such as BJT's, MOSFET's, diodes, resistors, and capacitors. Each model is compared to the experimental data measured from an actual FFET.

  20. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  1. School Processes Mediate School Compositional Effects: Model Specification and Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongqiang; Van Damme, Jan; Gielen, Sarah; Van Den Noortgate, Wim

    2015-01-01

    School composition effects have been consistently verified, but few studies ever attempted to study how school composition affects school achievement. Based on prior research findings, we employed multilevel mediation modeling to examine whether school processes mediate the effect of school composition upon school outcomes based on the data of 28…

  2. A Model for Effective Performance in the Indonesian Navy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-06-01

    NAVY LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT COM PETENCY M ODEL .................................. 15 D. MCBER COMPETENT MANAGERS MODEL ................ IS E. SU M M... leadership and managerial skills which emphasize on effective performance of the officers in managing the human resources under their cormnand and...supervision. By effective performance we mean officers who not only know about management theories , but who possess the characteristics, knowledge, skill, and

  3. Effects of Role Models and Gender on Students’ Entrepreneurial Intentions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karimi, S.; Biemans, H.J.A.; Lans, T.; Chizari, M.; Mulder, M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to, drawing on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), explore the effects of entrepreneurial role models on entrepreneurial intention (EI) and its antecedents and examines the question of whether the effects vary by gender. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected

  4. Empirical validity for a comprehensive model on educational effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reezigt, G.J.; Guldemond, H.; Creemers, B.P.M.

    Educational effectiveness research is often criticised because of the absence of a theoretical background. In our study we started out from an educational effectiveness model which was developed on the basis of educational theories and empirical evidence. We have tested the main assumptions of the

  5. Numerical Modeling of Electromagnetic Field Effects on the Human Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Psenakova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Interactions of electromagnetic field (EMF with environment and with tissue of human beings are still under discussion and many research teams are investigating it. The human simulation models are used for biomedical research in a lot of areas, where it is advantage to replace real human body (tissue by the numerical model. Biological effects of EMF are one of the areas, where numerical models are used with many advantages. On the other side, this research is very specific and it is always quite hard to simulate realistic human tissue. This paper deals with different possibilities of numerical modelling of electromagnetic field effects on the human body (especially calculation of the specific absorption rate (SAR distribution in human body and thermal effect.

  6. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  7. Degradation modeling with application to aging and maintenance effectiveness evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Hsu, F.; Subudhi, M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes a modeling approach to analyze light water reactor component degradation and failure data to understand the aging process of components. As used here, degradation modeling is the analysis of information on component degradation in order to develop models of the process and its implications. This particular modeling focuses on the analysis of the times of component degradations, to model how the rate of degradation changes with the age of the component. The methodology presented also discusses the effectiveness of maintenance as applicable to aging evaluations. The specific applications which are performed show quantitative models of component degradation rates and component failure rates from plant-specific data. The statistical techniques which are developed and applied allow aging trends to be effectively identified in the degradation data, and in the failure data. Initial estimates of the effectiveness of maintenance in limiting degradations from becoming failures also are developed. These results are important first steps in degradation modeling, and show that degradation can be modeled to identify aging trends

  8. Degradation modeling with application to aging and maintenance effectiveness evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Hsu, F.; Subduhi, M.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes a modeling approach to analyze component degradation and failure data to understand the aging process of components. As used here, degradation modeling is the analysis of information on component degradation in order to develop models of the process and its implications. This particular modeling focuses on the analysis of the times of component degradations, to model how the rate of degradation changes with the age of the component. The methodology presented also discusses the effectiveness of maintenance as applicable to aging evaluations. The specific applications which are performed show quantitative models of component degradation rates and component failure rates from plant-specific data. The statistical techniques which are developed and applied allow aging trends to be effectively identified in the degradation data, and in the failure data. Initial estimates of the effectiveness of maintenance in limiting degradations from becoming failures also are developed. These results are important first steps in degradation modeling, and show that degradation can be modeled to identify aging trends. 2 refs., 8 figs

  9. Simulation of finite size effects of the fiber bundle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Da-Peng; Tang, Gang; Xun, Zhi-Peng; Xia, Hui; Han, Kui

    2018-01-01

    In theory, the macroscopic fracture of materials should correspond with the thermodynamic limit of the fiber bundle model. However, the simulation of a fiber bundle model with an infinite size is unrealistic. To study the finite size effects of the fiber bundle model, fiber bundle models of various size are simulated in detail. The effects of system size on the constitutive behavior, critical stress, maximum avalanche size, avalanche size distribution, and increased step number of external load are explored. The simulation results imply that there is no feature size or cut size for macroscopic mechanical and statistical properties of the model. The constitutive curves near the macroscopic failure for various system size can collapse well with a simple scaling relationship. Simultaneously, the introduction of a simple extrapolation method facilitates the acquisition of more accurate simulation results in a large-limit system, which is better for comparison with theoretical results.

  10. Non-perturbative effective interactions in the standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Arbuzov, Boris A

    2014-01-01

    This monograph is devoted to the nonperturbative dynamics in the Standard Model (SM), the basic theory of all, but gravity, fundamental interactions in nature. The Standard Model is devided into two parts: the Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and the Electro-weak theory (EWT) are well-defined renormalizable theories in which the perturbation theory is valid. However, for the adequate description of the real physics nonperturbative effects are inevitable. This book describes how these nonperturbative effects may be obtained in the framework of spontaneous generation of effective interactions. The well-known example of such effective interaction is provided by the famous Nambu--Jona-Lasinio effective interaction. Also a spontaneous generation of this interaction in the framework of QCD is described and applied to the method for other effective interactions in QCD and EWT. The method is based on N.N. Bogoliubov conception of compensation equations. As a result we then describe the principle feathures of the Standard...

  11. Effective potential in Lorentz-breaking field theory models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeta Scarpelli, A.P. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica, Nova Gameleira Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Setor Tecnico-Cientifico, Departamento de Policia Federal, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Brito, L.C.T. [Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Fisica, Lavras, MG (Brazil); Felipe, J.C.C. [Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Fisica, Lavras, MG (Brazil); Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Instituto de Engenharia, Ciencia e Tecnologia, Veredas, Janauba, MG (Brazil); Nascimento, J.R.; Petrov, A.Yu. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Fisica, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)

    2017-12-15

    We calculate explicitly the one-loop effective potential in different Lorentz-breaking field theory models. First, we consider a Yukawa-like theory and some examples of Lorentz-violating extensions of scalar QED. We observe, for the extended QED models, that the resulting effective potential converges to the known result in the limit in which Lorentz symmetry is restored. Besides, the one-loop corrections to the effective potential in all the cases we study depend on the background tensors responsible for the Lorentz-symmetry violation. This has consequences for physical quantities like, for example, in the induced mass due to the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism. (orig.)

  12. Systematic effects in CALOR simulation code to model experimental configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Job, P.K.; Proudfoot, J.; Handler, T.

    1991-01-01

    CALOR89 code system is being used to simulate test beam results and the design parameters of several calorimeter configurations. It has been bench-marked against the ZEUS, Dθ and HELIOS data. This study identifies the systematic effects in CALOR simulation to model the experimental configurations. Five major systematic effects are identified. These are the choice of high energy nuclear collision model, material composition, scintillator saturation, shower integration time, and the shower containment. Quantitative estimates of these systematic effects are presented. 23 refs., 6 figs., 7 tabs

  13. Extending the linear model with R generalized linear, mixed effects and nonparametric regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Faraway, Julian J

    2005-01-01

    Linear models are central to the practice of statistics and form the foundation of a vast range of statistical methodologies. Julian J. Faraway''s critically acclaimed Linear Models with R examined regression and analysis of variance, demonstrated the different methods available, and showed in which situations each one applies. Following in those footsteps, Extending the Linear Model with R surveys the techniques that grow from the regression model, presenting three extensions to that framework: generalized linear models (GLMs), mixed effect models, and nonparametric regression models. The author''s treatment is thoroughly modern and covers topics that include GLM diagnostics, generalized linear mixed models, trees, and even the use of neural networks in statistics. To demonstrate the interplay of theory and practice, throughout the book the author weaves the use of the R software environment to analyze the data of real examples, providing all of the R commands necessary to reproduce the analyses. All of the ...

  14. Dilbert-Peter model of organization effectiveness: computer simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2010-01-01

    We describe a computer model of general effectiveness of a hierarchical organization depending on two main aspects: effects of promotion to managerial levels and efforts to self-promote of individual employees, reducing their actual productivity. The combination of judgment by appearance in the promotion to higher levels of hierarchy and the Peter Principle (which states that people are promoted to their level of incompetence) results in fast declines in effectiveness of the organization. The...

  15. Medical Modeling of Particle Size Effects for CB Inhalation Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    warfare) may create adverse health effects when inhaled. Once the materials enter the respiratory tract, they may deposit on the airway surfaces...mppd.htm). New features in this version include a deposition model specifically for nanoparticles, nonuniform lung ventilation to include the effect ... mechanisms cause local lesions, but the more virulent strains may then spread throughout the body via blood or lymph (Celli 2008). The effects of

  16. Consistency in Estimation and Model Selection of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjie Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002 does not necessarily lead to consistent estimation of common parameters when some true exogenous regressors are excluded. We propose a data dependent way to specify the prior of the autoregressive coefficient and argue for comparing different model specifications before parameter estimation. Model selection properties of Bayes factors and Bayesian information criterion (BIC are investigated. When model uncertainty is substantial, we recommend the use of Bayesian Model Averaging to obtain point estimators with lower root mean squared errors (RMSE. We also study the implications of different levels of inclusion probabilities by simulations.

  17. Modeling free convective gravitational effects in chemical vapor deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinespring, C. D.; Annen, K. D.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper, a combined fluid-mechanics, mass-transport, and chemistry model describing CVD in an open-tube atmospheric-pressure flow reactor is developed. The model allows gas-phase reactions to proceed to equilibrium and accounts for finite reaction rates at the surface of the deposition substrate. This model is a useful intermediate step toward a model employing fully rate-limited chemistry. The model is used to predict the effects of free convection on flow patterns, temperature and species-concentration profiles, and local deposition rates for silicon deposited by silane pyrolysis. These results are discussed in terms of implications for CVD of silicon and other compounds, microgravity studies, and techniques for testing and validating the model.

  18. Effective Elliptic Models for Efficient Wavefield Extrapolation in Anisotropic Media

    KAUST Repository

    Waheed, Umair bin

    2014-05-01

    Wavefield extrapolation operator for elliptically anisotropic media offers significant cost reduction compared to that of transversely isotropic media (TI), especially when the medium exhibits tilt in the symmetry axis (TTI). However, elliptical anisotropy does not provide accurate focusing for TI media. Therefore, we develop effective elliptically anisotropic models that correctly capture the kinematic behavior of the TTI wavefield. Specifically, we use an iterative elliptically anisotropic eikonal solver that provides the accurate traveltimes for a TI model. The resultant coefficients of the elliptical eikonal provide the effective models. These effective models allow us to use the cheaper wavefield extrapolation operator for elliptic media to obtain approximate wavefield solutions for TTI media. Despite the fact that the effective elliptic models are obtained by kinematic matching using high-frequency asymptotic, the resulting wavefield contains most of the critical wavefield components, including the frequency dependency and caustics, if present, with reasonable accuracy. The methodology developed here offers a much better cost versus accuracy tradeoff for wavefield computations in TTI media, considering the cost prohibitive nature of the problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach on the BP TTI model.

  19. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  20. Modelling the effects of a CBRN defence system using a Bayesian Belief Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phillipson, F.; Bastings, I.C.L.; Vink, N.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a Bayes model to quantify the effects of a passive CBRN defence system is presented. The model gives insight in the way of the mutual influence of all the elements of passive CBRN defence, by the use of detailed scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and root cause analysis. This can

  1. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

  2. Analogue model studies of induction effects at auroral latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Viljanen

    1995-11-01

    Full Text Available In addition to field observations and numerical models, geomagnetic induction effects can be studied by scaled analogue model experiments. We present here results of analogue model studies of the auroral electrojet with an Earth model simulating the Arctic Ocean and inland conductivity structures in northern Fennoscandia. The main elements of the analogue model used were salt water simulating the host rock, an aluminium plate corresponding to the ocean and graphite pieces producing the inland highly conducting anomalies. The electrojet was a time-harmonic line current flowing at a (simulated height of 100 km above northern Fennoscandia. The period simulated was 9 min. The analogue model results confirmed the well-known rapid increase of the vertical field when the coast is approached from the continent. The increase of the horizontal field due to induced ocean currents was demonstrated above the ocean, as well as the essentially negligible effect of these currents on the horizontal field on the continent. The behaviour of the magnetic field is explained with a simple two-dimensional thin-sheet model. The range, or the adjustment distance, of the ocean effect inland was found to be some hundreds of kilometers, which also agrees with earlier results of the Siebert-Kertz separation of IMAGE magnetometer data. The modelled inland anomalies evidently had too large conductivities, but on the other hand, their influence decayed on scales of only some tens of kilometers. Analogue model results, thin-sheet calculations, and field observations show that the induction effect on the horizontal magnetic field Bx near the electrojet is negligible. On the other hand, the vertical component Bz is clearly affected by induced currents in the ocean. Evidence of this is the shift of the zero point of Bz 0-1° southwards from the maximum of Bx. The importance of these results are discussed, emphasizing the determination of ionospheric currents.

  3. Effect Displays in R for Generalised Linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fox

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the implementation in R of a method for tabular or graphical display of terms in a complex generalised linear model. By complex, I mean a model that contains terms related by marginality or hierarchy, such as polynomial terms, or main effects and interactions. I call these tables or graphs effect displays. Effect displays are constructed by identifying high-order terms in a generalised linear model. Fitted values under the model are computed for each such term. The lower-order "relatives" of a high-order term (e.g., main effects marginal to an interaction are absorbed into the term, allowing the predictors appearing in the high-order term to range over their values. The values of other predictors are fixed at typical values: for example, a covariate could be fixed at its mean or median, a factor at its proportional distribution in the data, or to equal proportions in its several levels. Variations of effect displays are also described, including representation of terms higher-order to any appearing in the model.

  4. The problematic estimation of "imitation effects" in multilevel models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available It seems plausible that a person's demographic behaviour may be influenced by that among other people in the community, for example because of an inclination to imitate. When estimating multilevel models from clustered individual data, some investigators might perhaps feel tempted to try to capture this effect by simply including on the right-hand side the average of the dependent variable, constructed by aggregation within the clusters. However, such modelling must be avoided. According to simulation experiments based on real fertility data from India, the estimated effect of this obviously endogenous variable can be very different from the true effect. Also the other community effect estimates can be strongly biased. An "imitation effect" can only be estimated under very special assumptions that in practice will be hard to defend.

  5. Modeling the Effects of Stress: An Approach to Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuper, Taryn

    2010-01-01

    Stress is an integral element of the operational conditions experienced by combat medics. The effects of stress can compromise the performance of combat medics who must reach and treat their comrades under often threatening circumstances. Examples of these effects include tunnel vision, loss of motor control, and diminished hearing, which can result in an inability to perceive further danger, satisfactorily treat the casualty, and communicate with others. While many training programs strive to recreate this stress to aid in the experiential learning process, stress inducement may not always be feasible or desired. In addition, live simulations are not always a practical, convenient, and repeatable method of training. Instead, presenting situational training on a personal computer is proposed as an effective training platform in which the effects of stress can be addressed in a different way. We explore the cognitive and motor effects of stress, as well as the benefits of training for mitigating these effects in real life. While many training applications focus on inducing stress in order to "condition" the stress response, the author explores the possibilities of modeling stress to produce a similar effect. Can presenting modeled effects of stress help prepare or inoculate soldiers for stressful situations in which they must perform at a high level? This paper investigates feasibility of modeling stress and describes the preliminary design considerations of a combat medic training system that utilizes this method of battlefield preparation.

  6. Effectiveness of discovery learning model on mathematical problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiana, Yunita; Wahyudin, Sispiyati, Ririn

    2017-08-01

    This research is aimed to describe the effectiveness of discovery learning model on mathematical problem solving. This research investigate the students' problem solving competency before and after learned by using discovery learning model. The population used in this research was student in grade VII in one of junior high school in West Bandung Regency. From nine classes, class VII B were randomly selected as the sample of experiment class, and class VII C as control class, which consist of 35 students every class. The method in this research was quasi experiment. The instrument in this research is pre-test, worksheet and post-test about problem solving of mathematics. Based on the research, it can be conclude that the qualification of problem solving competency of students who gets discovery learning model on level 80%, including in medium category and it show that discovery learning model effective to improve mathematical problem solving.

  7. Efficient Modeling and Migration in Anisotropic Media Based on Prestack Exploding Reflector Model and Effective Anisotropy

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Hui

    2014-05-01

    This thesis addresses the efficiency improvement of seismic wave modeling and migration in anisotropic media. This improvement becomes crucial in practice as the process of imaging complex geological structures of the Earth\\'s subsurface requires modeling and migration as building blocks. The challenge comes from two aspects. First, the underlying governing equations for seismic wave propagation in anisotropic media are far more complicated than that in isotropic media which demand higher computational costs to solve. Second, the usage of whole prestack seismic data still remains a burden considering its storage volume and the existing wave equation solvers. In this thesis, I develop two approaches to tackle the challenges. In the first part, I adopt the concept of prestack exploding reflector model to handle the whole prestack data and bridge the data space directly to image space in a single kernel. I formulate the extrapolation operator in a two-way fashion to remove he restriction on directions that waves propagate. I also develop a generic method for phase velocity evaluation within anisotropic media used in this extrapolation kernel. The proposed method provides a tool for generating prestack images without wavefield cross correlations. In the second part of this thesis, I approximate the anisotropic models using effective isotropic models. The wave phenomena in these effective models match that in anisotropic models both kinematically and dynamically. I obtain the effective models through equating eikonal equations and transport equations of anisotropic and isotropic models, thereby in the high frequency asymptotic approximation sense. The wavefields extrapolation costs are thus reduced using isotropic wave equation solvers while the anisotropic effects are maintained through this approach. I benchmark the two proposed methods using synthetic datasets. Tests on anisotropic Marmousi model and anisotropic BP2007 model demonstrate the applicability of my

  8. Gluonic effects in color dielectric model. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, N.; Hyuga, H.

    1990-01-01

    We study generalized versions of the Nielsen and Patkos color dielectric model with an effective quark mass m q (χ=m q /χ τ and a dielectric function Κ(χ)=χ β . Gluonic effects are studied in this model with both perturbative and self-consistent calculations. In the case of τ=0.5 and β=2, it is shown that the perturbative gluonic effects are too strong to obtain a reasonable description of N and Δ. The choice of τ=2 and β=4 is shown to give a reasonable agreement of the masses of N and Δ with their observed ones. Taking into account the results in our previous paper, it is therefore suggested that the choice of τ:β=1:2 is superior to that of 1:4, the latter of which corresponds of the Nielsen and Patkos model. (orig.)

  9. Intelligence and Birth Order among Children and Adolescents in Psychiatric Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkcaldy, Bruce; Furnham, Adrian; Siefen, Georg

    2009-01-01

    A sample of around 2,500 adolescents in a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic in the region of Munster, Germany had their intelligence assessed. Family size (total number of siblings within a family) was significantly correlated with intelligence score categories (-0.08 and -0.19 for males and females). First borns and only children displayed…

  10. Is Birth Order Really Important in Peer Relationship? A Grounded Theory Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coskun, Kerem; Çikrikci, Özkan; Topkaya, Yavuz

    2017-01-01

    This article seeks to develop a theory about the importance of peer relationship among the oldest of the youngest children who have finished preschool education and already started primary school. In the study, observation was employed to collect data from 22 children. The data were analysed through the grounded theory approach, in which data are…

  11. The Relation of Birth Order, Social Class, and Need Achievement to Independent Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhine, W. Ray

    1974-01-01

    This article reports an investigation in which the brith order, social class, and level of achievement arousal are the variables considered when fifth and sixth-grade girls make independent judgements in performing a set task. (JH)

  12. Birth order in homosexual versus heterosexual sex offenders against children, pubescents, and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, R; Bogaert, A F

    1998-12-01

    Homosexual men erotically attracted to physically mature partners typically have more older brothers than comparable heterosexual men. We investigated whether late fraternal birth positions also occur in homosexuals attracted to children or pubescents. Probands were 710 sex offenders from Gebhard et al.'s (1965) study of sexual offending. Homosexual offenders against adults and pubescents had later fraternal birth positions than heterosexual offenders against adults and pubescents, respectively; there was no difference between the homosexual and heterosexual offenders against children. Results provide some evidence that homosexuality in men attracted to immature males is etiologically related to homosexuality in men attracted to mature males.

  13. Complexities of sibling analysis when exposures and outcomes change with time and birth order

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sudan, Madhuri; Kheifets, Leeka I.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Divan, Hozefa A.; Olsen, Jørn

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the complexities of performing a sibling analysis with a re-examination of associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems observed previously in the Danish National Birth Cohort. Children (52,680; including 5441 siblings) followed up to age 7 were

  14. The Effect of Head Model Simplification on Beamformer Source Localization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Neugebauer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Beamformers are a widely-used tool in brain analysis with magnetoencephalography (MEG and electroencephalography (EEG. For the construction of the beamformer filters realistic head volume conductor modeling is necessary for accurately computing the EEG and MEG leadfields, i.e., for solving the EEG and MEG forward problem. In this work, we investigate the influence of including realistic head tissue compartments into a finite element method (FEM model on the beamformer's localization ability. Specifically, we investigate the effect of including cerebrospinal fluid, gray matter, and white matter distinction, as well as segmenting the skull bone into compacta and spongiosa, and modeling white matter anisotropy. We simulate an interictal epileptic measurement with white sensor noise. Beamformer filters are constructed with unit gain, unit array gain, and unit noise gain constraint. Beamformer source positions are determined by evaluating power and excess sample kurtosis (g2 of the source-waveforms at all source space nodes. For both modalities, we see a strong effect of modeling the cerebrospinal fluid and white and gray matter. Depending on the source position, both effects can each be in the magnitude of centimeters, rendering their modeling necessary for successful localization. Precise skull modeling mainly effected the EEG up to a few millimeters, while both modalities could profit from modeling white matter anisotropy to a smaller extent of 5–10 mm. The unit noise gain or neural activity index beamformer behaves similarly to the array gain beamformer when noise strength is sufficiently high. Variance localization seems more robust against modeling errors than kurtosis.

  15. Modeling the Substrate Skin Effects in Mutual RL Characteristics.,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. de Roest

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work was to model the influence of the substrateskin effects on the distributed mutual impedance per unit lengthparameters of multiple coupled on-chip interconnects. The proposedanalytic model is based on the frequency-dependent distribution of thecurrent in the silicon substrate and the closed form integrationapproach. It is shown that the calculated frequency-dependentdistributed mutual inductance and the associated mutual resistance arein good agreement with the results obtained from CAD-oriented circuitmodeling technique.

  16. The Border Effect in the Japanese Market: Gravity Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Okubo, Toshihiro

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyzes the border effect, which indicates how biased interregional trade is, compared with international trade, by means of the Gravity Model. The border effect reveals how open to the foreign countries the nation is. This research suggests that the border effect in Japan is much lower than that of the US and Canada, and has declined year by year. Furthermore, in 1990, the border effect faded out. These trends may be reflected by international incidents such as the surge of the f...

  17. E-Model MOS Estimate Precision Improvement and Modelling of Jitter Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Kovac

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the ITU-T E-model, which is used for non-intrusive MOS VoIP call quality estimation on IP networks. The pros of E-model are computational simplicity and usability on real-time traffic. The cons, as shown in our previous work, are the inability of E-model to reflect effects of network jitter present on real traffic flows and jitter-buffer behavior on end user devices. These effects are visible mostly on traffic over WAN, internet and radio networks and cause the E-model MOS call quality estimate to be noticeably too optimistic. In this paper, we propose a modification to E-model using previously proposed Pplef (effective packet loss using jitter and jitter-buffer model based on Pareto/D/1/K system. We subsequently perform optimization of newly added parameters reflecting jitter effects into E-model by using PESQ intrusive measurement method as a reference for selected audio codecs. Function fitting and parameter optimization is performed under varying delay, packet loss, jitter and different jitter-buffer sizes for both, correlated and uncorrelated long-tailed network traffic.

  18. Postural effects on intracranial pressure: modeling and clinical evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qvarlander, Sara; Sundström, Nina; Malm, Jan; Eklund, Anders

    2013-11-01

    The physiological effect of posture on intracranial pressure (ICP) is not well described. This study defined and evaluated three mathematical models describing the postural effects on ICP, designed to predict ICP at different head-up tilt angles from the supine ICP value. Model I was based on a hydrostatic indifference point for the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) system, i.e., the existence of a point in the system where pressure is independent of body position. Models II and III were based on Davson's equation for CSF absorption, which relates ICP to venous pressure, and postulated that gravitational effects within the venous system are transferred to the CSF system. Model II assumed a fully communicating venous system, and model III assumed that collapse of the jugular veins at higher tilt angles creates two separate hydrostatic compartments. Evaluation of the models was based on ICP measurements at seven tilt angles (0-71°) in 27 normal pressure hydrocephalus patients. ICP decreased with tilt angle (ANOVA: P < 0.01). The reduction was well predicted by model III (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P = 0.65), which showed excellent fit against measured ICP. Neither model I nor II adequately described the reduction in ICP (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P < 0.01). Postural changes in ICP could not be predicted based on the currently accepted theory of a hydrostatic indifference point for the CSF system, but a new model combining Davson's equation for CSF absorption and hydrostatic gradients in a collapsible venous system performed well and can be useful in future research on gravity and CSF physiology.

  19. Conceptual modelling of evapotranspiration for simulations of climate change effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindstroem, G.; Gardelin, M.; Persson, Magnus

    1994-09-01

    The evapotranspiration routines in existing conceptual hydrological models have been identified as one of the weaknesses which appear when these models are used for the simulation of hydrological effects of a changing climate. The hydrological models in operational use today usually have a very superficial description of evapotranspiration. They have, nevertheless, been able to yield reasonable results. The objective of this paper is to analyse and suggest modifications of existing evapotranspiration routines in conceptual hydrological models to make them more appropriate for use in simulation of the effects of a changing climate on water resources. The following modifications of the evapotranspiration routine were formulated and tested in the HBV model: Temperature anomaly correction of evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration by a simplified Thornthwaite type formula, interception submodel, spatially distributed evapotranspiration routine and alternative formulations of lake evapotranspiration. Sensitivity analyses were thereafter made to illustrate the effects of uncertainty in the hydrological model structure versus those of the uncertainty in the climate change predictions. 34 refs, 15 figs, 6 tabs

  20. Evaluation of radiobiological effects in 3 distinct biological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, J.; Costa, P.; Cunha, L.; Metello, L.F.; Carvalho, A.P.; Vasconcelos, V.; Genesio, P.; Ponte, F.; Costa, P.S.; Crespo, P.

    2015-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. The present work aims at sharing the process of development of advanced biological models to study radiobiological effects. Recognizing several known limitations and difficulties of the current monolayer cellular models, as well as the increasing difficulties to use advanced biological models, our group has been developing advanced biological alternative models, namely three-dimensional cell cultures and a less explored animal model (the Zebra fish - Danio rerio - which allows the access to inter-generational data, while characterized by a great genetic homology towards the humans). These 3 models (monolayer cellular model, three-dimensional cell cultures and zebra fish) were externally irradiated with 100 mGy, 500 mGy or 1 Gy. The consequences of that irradiation were studied using cellular and molecular tests. Our previous experimental studies with 100 mGy external gamma irradiation of HepG2 monolayer cells showed a slight increase in the proliferation rate 24 h, 48 h and 72 h post irradiation. These results also pointed into the presence of certain bystander effects 72 h post irradiation, constituting the starting point for the need of a more accurate analysis realized with this work. At this stage, we continue focused on the acute biological effects. Obtained results, namely MTT and clonogenic assays for evaluating cellular metabolic activity and proliferation in the in vitro models, as well as proteomics for the evaluation of in vivo effects will be presented, discussed and explained. Several hypotheses will be presented and defended based on the facts previously demonstrated. This work aims at sharing the actual state and the results already available from this medium-term project, building the proof of the added value on applying these advanced models, while demonstrating the strongest and weakest points from all of them (so allowing the comparison between them and to base the subsequent choice for research groups starting

  1. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  2. A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberg Dominik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.

  3. A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilberg, Dominik; Klar, Axel; Steiner, Konrad

    2017-06-01

    The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.

  4. ICFD modeling of final settlers - developing consistent and effective simulation model structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plósz, Benedek G.; Guyonvarch, Estelle; Ramin, Elham

    Summary of key findings The concept of interpreted computational fluid dynamic (iCFD) modelling and the development methodology are presented (Fig. 1). The 1-D advection-dispersion model along with the statistically generated, meta-model for pseudo-dispersion constitutes the newly developed i...... nine different model structures based on literature (1; 3; 2; 10; 9) and on more recent considerations (Fig. 2a). Validation tests were done using the CFD outputs from extreme scenarios. The most effective model structure (relatively low the sum of square of relative errors, SSRE, and computational...... time) obtained is that in which the XTC is set at the concentration of the layer just below the feed-layer. The feed-layer location is set to the highest location where X>Xin (solids concentration in SST influent). An effective discretization level (computational time/numerical error) is assessed...

  5. Behavioral effects of nerve agents: laboratory animal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, T. M.

    2009-01-01

    Diverse and often subtle behavioral consequences have been reported for humans exposed to nerve agents. Laboratory studies of nerve agent exposure offer rigorous control over important variables, but species other than man must be used. Nonhuman primate models offer the best means of identifying the toxic nervous system effects of nerve agent insult and the countermeasures best capable of preventing or attenuating these effects. Comprehensive behavioral models must evaluate preservation and recovery of function as well as new learning ability. The throughput and sensitivity of the tests chosen are important considerations. A few nonhuman primate studies will be discussed to elaborate recent successes, current limitations, and future directions.(author)

  6. Modelling and Analysis of Proximity Effect in IGBT Fuses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iov, Florin; Blaabjerg, Frede; Rasmussen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    . Even with an active protection, a high power IGBT still has a risk of exhibiting a violent rupture in the case of a fault if e.g. IGBT fuses are not protecting it. By introducing fuses into voltage source converters a better protection of IGBT's can be achieved. However, skin and proximity effects...... affect the current distribution in a fuse due to the high frequency currents and thus a need for de-rating the fuse. This paper shows an analytical model for studying the proximity effect into a fuse. The results obtained using this model are compared with experiments....

  7. Attractive Casimir effect in an infrared modified gluon bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oxman, L.E.; Amaral, R.L.P.G.; Svaiter, N.F.

    2005-01-01

    In this work, we are motivated by previous attempts to derive the vacuum contribution to the bag energy in terms of familiar Casimir energy calculations for spherical geometries. A simple infrared modified model is introduced which allows studying the effects of the analytic structure as well as the geometry in a clear manner. In this context, we show that if a class of infrared vanishing effective gluon propagators is considered, then the renormalized vacuum energy for a spherical bag is attractive, as required by the bag model to adjust hadron spectroscopy

  8. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  9. Wall modeled LES of wind turbine wakes with geometrical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricteux, Laurent; Benard, Pierre; Zeoli, Stephanie; Moureau, Vincent; Lartigue, Ghislain; Vire, Axelle

    2017-11-01

    This study focuses on prediction of wind turbine wakes when geometrical effects such as nacelle, tower, and built environment, are taken into account. The aim is to demonstrate the ability of a high order unstructured solver called YALES2 to perform wall modeled LES of wind turbine wake turbulence. The wind turbine rotor is modeled using an Actuator Line Model (ALM) while the geometrical details are explicitly meshed thanks to the use of an unstructured grid. As high Reynolds number flows are considered, sub-grid scale models as well as wall modeling are required. The first test case investigated concerns a wind turbine flow located in a wind tunnel that allows to validate the proposed methodology using experimental data. The second test case concerns the simulation of a wind turbine wake in a complex environment (e.g. a Building) using realistic turbulent inflow conditions.

  10. Towards a more effective model for distance education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Koper

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available What is the most effective model for academic distance education, given that drop-out numbers in traditional distance education institutions are too high and the demands from the various stakeholders are changing? In this paper this question is answered from the perspective of the Open University of the Netherlands (OUNL. The OUNL has planned to redesign its educational model from the traditional guided self-study model towards a model of active online learning. In essence this means that education will be less content driven; more focus is put on activating students to engage with real world problems supported by tutors and peers using distance media. The drivers for change, the change process and the resulting redesign of the educational model are presented in this paper.

  11. Modelling Baryonic Effects on Galaxy Cluster Mass Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirasaki, Masato; Lau, Erwin T.; Nagai, Daisuke

    2018-03-01

    Gravitational lensing is a powerful probe of the mass distribution of galaxy clusters and cosmology. However, accurate measurements of the cluster mass profiles are limited by uncertainties in cluster astrophysics. In this work, we present a physically motivated model of baryonic effects on the cluster mass profiles, which self-consistently takes into account the impact of baryons on the concentration as well as mass accretion histories of galaxy clusters. We calibrate this model using the Omega500 hydrodynamical cosmological simulations of galaxy clusters with varying baryonic physics. Our model will enable us to simultaneously constrain cluster mass, concentration, and cosmological parameters using stacked weak lensing measurements from upcoming optical cluster surveys.

  12. Effect of attenuation models on communication system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimabukuro, Fred I.

    1995-01-01

    The atmosphere has a significant impact on the design of a global communication system operating at 20 GHz. The system under consideration has a total atmospheric link attenuation budget that is less than 6 dB. For this relatively small link margin, rain, cloud, and molecular attenuation have to be taken into account. For an assessment of system performance on a global basis, attenuation models are utilized. There is concern whether current models can adequately describe the atmospheric effects such that a system planner can properly allocate his resources for superior overall system performance. The atmospheric attenuation as predicted by models will be examined.

  13. Nuclear EMC effect in non-extensive statistical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trevisan, Luis A. [Departamento de Matematica e Estatistica, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 84010-790, Ponta Grossa, PR (Brazil); Mirez, Carlos [ICET, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri - UFVJM, Campus do Mucuri, Rua do Cruzeiro 01, Jardim Sao Paulo, 39803-371, Teofilo Otoni, MG (Brazil)

    2013-05-06

    In the present work, we attempt to describe the nuclear EMC effect by using the proton structure functions obtained from the non-extensive statistical quark model. We record that such model has three fundamental variables, the temperature T, the radius, and the Tsallis parameter q. By combining different small changes, a good agreement with the experimental data may be obtained. Another interesting point of the model is to allow phenomenological interpretation, for instance, with q constant and changing the radius and the temperature or changing the radius and q and keeping the temperature.

  14. A Fay-Herriot Model with Different Random Effect Variances

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hobza, Tomáš; Morales, D.; Herrador, M.; Esteban, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 5 (2011), s. 785-797 ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : small area estimation * Fay-Herriot model * Linear mixed model * Labor Force Survey Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.274, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/SI/hobza-a%20fay-herriot%20model%20with%20different%20random%20effect%20variances.pdf

  15. Modeling the effects of inflammation in bone fracture healing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojouharov, H. V.; Trejo, I.; Chen-Charpentier, B. M.

    2017-10-01

    A new mathematical model is presented to study the early inflammatory effects in bone healing. It consists of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represents the interactions among macrophages, mesenchymal stem cells, and osteoblasts. A qualitative analysis of the model is performed to determine the equilibria and their corresponding stability properties. A set of numerical simulations is performed to support the theoretical results. The model is also used to numerically monitor the evolution of a broken bone for different types of fractures and to explore possible treatments to accelerate bone healing by administrating anti-inflammatory drugs.

  16. Numerical modeling of coanda effect in a novel propulsive system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Das

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Coanda effect (adhesion of jet flow over curved surface is fundamental characteristics of jet flow. In the present paper, we carried out numerical simulations to investigate Coanda flow over a curved surface and its application in a newly proposed Propulsive system "A.C.H.E.O.N" (Aerial Coanda High Efficiency Orienting jet Nozzle which supports thrust vectoring. The ACHEON system is presently being proposed for propelling a new V/STOL airplane in European Union. This system is based on cumulative effects of three physical effects such as (1 High speed jet mixing speeds (2 Coanda effect control by electrostatic fields (3 Coanda effect adhesion of an high speed jet to a convex surface. The performance of this nozzle can be enhanced by increasing the jet deflection angle of synthetic jet over the Coanda surface. This newly proposed nozzle has wide range of applications. It can be used in industrial sector such as plasma spray gun and for direct injection in combustion chamber to enhance the efficiency of the combustion chamber. Also, we studied the effect of Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators on A.C.H.E.O.N system. Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators are active control devices for controlling boundary layer and to delay the flow separation over any convex surfaces. Computations were performed under subsonic condition. Two dimensional CFD calculations were carried out using Reynolds averaged Navier stokes equations (RANS. A numerical method based on finite volume formulation (FVM was used. SST k-ω model was considered to model turbulent flow inside nozzle. DBD model was used to model the plasma. Moreover, a body force treatment was devised to model the effect of plasma and its coupling with the fluid. This preliminary result shows that, the presence of plasma near Coanda surface accelerates the flow and delays the separation and enhances the efficiency of the nozzle.

  17. Edge effect modeling of small tool polishing in planetary movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi-xin; Ma, Zhen; Jiang, Bo; Yao, Yong-sheng

    2018-03-01

    As one of the most challenging problems in Computer Controlled Optical Surfacing (CCOS), the edge effect greatly affects the polishing accuracy and efficiency. CCOS rely on stable tool influence function (TIF), however, at the edge of the mirror surface,with the grinding head out of the mirror ,the contact area and pressure distribution changes, which resulting in a non-linear change of TIF, and leads to tilting or sagging at the edge of the mirror. In order reduce the adverse effects and improve the polishing accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we used the finite element simulation to analyze the pressure distribution at the mirror edge and combined with the improved traditional method to establish a new model. The new method fully considered the non-uniformity of pressure distribution. After modeling the TIFs in different locations, the description and prediction of the edge effects are realized, which has a positive significance on the control and suppression of edge effects

  18. Model-independent effects of Δ excitation in nucleon polarizabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascalutsa, Vladimir; Phillips, Daniel R.

    2003-01-01

    Model-independent effects of Δ(1232) excitation on nucleon polarizabilities are computed in a Lorentz-invariant fashion. We find a large effect of relative order (M Δ -M)/M in some of the spin polarizabilities, with the backward spin polarizability receiving the largest contribution. Similar subleading effects are found to be important in the fourth-order spin-independent polarizabilities α Eν , α E2 , β Mν , and β M2 . Combining our results with those for the model-independent effects of pion loops we obtain predictions for spin and fourth-order polarizabilities which compare favorably with the results of a recent dispersion-relation analysis of data

  19. Models, Data, Information and Hypotheses: Towards a More Effective Use of Simulation Models in Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, R. P.; Nearing, G. S.; Couch, A.; Condon, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    Water balance provides an organizing principle for rainfall-runoff models, both as a constraint (conservation of mass) but also as a perspective that structures models as fluxes among various compartments and states. Given that fewer tunable model parameters provides a more powerful quantitative test of our understanding of hydrologic processes, a dilemma arises between the use of lumped conceptual models and fully distributed models: lumped models generally have fewer parameters than distributed models, but translating data collected at a physical location in the field into information that is meaningful to a lumped model is not straightforward. By contrast, physically distributed models using spatially explicit computational grids or meshes can more directly relate internal model states to field data, yet data are quite sparse relative to the information requirements of the model. Thus, a central challenge emerges of extracting information from data, whether point in situ measurements or remotely sensed data based upon grids or an eddy covariance measurement of uncertain footprint, to inform model parameter values or the dynamics of model state variables. The new National Water Model (NWM), developed by NOAA's Office of Water Prediction, offers an interesting test case for addressing this challenge. As currently constructed, the NWM translates between a gridded landscape structure and a geofabric of reach catchments defined by the NHDPlus. We are examining the application of the NWM to three different Critical Zone Observatory catchments (Shavers Creek (PA), Upper Sangamon River (IL) , and Clear Creek (IA)) to explore the representation of groundwater-surface water exchange in these well-characterized basins. We contrast the effectiveness of different modeling approaches in extracting information from the available data sets.

  20. Schwinger effect and negative differential conductivity in holographic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabortty, Shankhadeep; Sathiapalan, B.

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of the Schwinger effect for conductivity are computed for strong coupling systems using holography. The one-loop diagram on the flavor brane introduces an O (λ/Nc) imaginary part in the effective action for a Maxwell flavor gauge field. This in turn introduces a real conductivity in an otherwise insulating phase of the boundary theory. Moreover, in certain regions of parameter space the differential conductivity is negative. This is computed in the context of the Sakai-Sugimoto model.

  1. Understanding the inverse magnetocaloric effect through a simple theoretical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ranke, P.J. von, E-mail: von.ranke@uol.com.b [Instituto de Fisica Armando Dias Tavares-Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sao Francisco Xavier, 524, Rio de Janeiro 20550-013 (Brazil); Alho, B.P.; Nobrega, E.P.; Oliveira, N.A. de [Instituto de Fisica Armando Dias Tavares-Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sao Francisco Xavier, 524, Rio de Janeiro 20550-013 (Brazil)

    2009-10-15

    We investigated the inverse magnetocaloric effect using a theoretical magnetic model formed by two coupled magnetic lattices to describe a ferrimagnetic system. The influence of the compensation temperature, and the ferrimagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition on the magnetocaloric effect was analyzed. Also, a relation between the area under the magnetocaloric curve and the net magnetic moment of a ferrimagnetic system was established in this work.

  2. Regulatory odour model development: Survey of modelling tools and datasets with focus on building effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, H. R.; Løfstrøm, P.; Berkowicz, R.

    A project within the framework of a larger research programme, Action Plan for the Aquatic Environment III (VMP III) aims towards improving an atmospheric dispersion model (OML). The OML model is used for regulatory applications in Denmark, and it is the candidate model to be used also in future...... in relation to odour problems due to animal farming. However, the model needs certain improvements and validation in order to be fully suited for that purpose. The report represents a survey of existing literature, models and data sets. It includes a brief overview of the state-of-the-art of atmospheric...... dispersion models for estimating local concentration levels in general. However, the report focuses on some particular issues, which are relevant for subsequent work on odour due to animal production. An issue of primary concern is the effect that buildings (stables) have on flow and dispersion. The handling...

  3. Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

    2015-10-01

    Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

  4. Tissue Acoustoelectric Effect Modeling From Solid Mechanics Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xizi; Qin, Yexian; Xu, Yanbin; Ingram, Pier; Witte, Russell S; Dong, Feng

    2017-10-01

    The acoustoelectric (AE) effect is a basic physical phenomenon, which underlies the changes made in the conductivity of a medium by the application of focused ultrasound. Recently, based on the AE effect, several biomedical imaging techniques have been widely studied, such as ultrasound-modulated electrical impedance tomography and ultrasound current source density imaging. To further investigate the mechanism of the AE effect in tissue and to provide guidance for such techniques, we have modeled the tissue AE effect using the theory of solid mechanics. Both bulk compression and thermal expansion of tissue are considered and discussed. Computation simulation shows that the muscle AE effect result, conductivity change rate, is 3.26×10 -3 with 4.3-MPa peak pressure, satisfying the theoretical value. Bulk compression plays the main role for muscle AE effect, while thermal expansion makes almost no contribution to it. In addition, the AE signals of porcine muscle are measured at different focal positions. With the same magnitude order and the same change trend, the experiment result confirms that the simulation result is effective. Both simulation and experimental results validate that tissue AE effect modeling using solid mechanics theory is feasible, which is of significance for the further development of related biomedical imaging techniques.

  5. Use of nonlinear dose-effect models to predict consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The linear dose-effect relationship was introduced as a model for the induction of cancer from exposure to nuclear radiation. Subsequently, it has been used by analogy to assess the risk of chemical carcinogens also. Recently, however, the model for radiation carcinogenesis has come increasingly under attack because its calculations contradict the epidemiological data, such as cancer in atomic bomb survivors. Even so, its proponents vigorously defend it, often using arguments that are not so much scientific as a mix of scientific, societal, and often political arguments. At least in part, the resilience of the linear model is due to two convenient properties that are exclusive to linearity: First, the risk of an event is determined solely by the event dose; second, the total risk of a population group depends only on the total population dose. In reality, the linear model has been conclusively falsified; i.e., it has been shown to make wrong predictions, and once this fact is generally realized, the scientific method calls for a new paradigm model. As all alternative models are by necessity nonlinear, all the convenient properties of the linear model are invalid, and calculational procedures have to be used that are appropriate for nonlinear models

  6. The effect of nonstationarity on models inferred from neural data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrcha, Joanna; Roudi, Yasser; Marsili, Matteo; Hertz, John

    2013-01-01

    Neurons subject to a common nonstationary input may exhibit a correlated firing behavior. Correlations in the statistics of neural spike trains also arise as the effect of interaction between neurons. Here we show that these two situations can be distinguished with machine learning techniques, provided that the data are rich enough. In order to do this, we study the problem of inferring a kinetic Ising model, stationary or nonstationary, from the available data. We apply the inference procedure to two data sets: one from salamander retinal ganglion cells and the other from a realistic computational cortical network model. We show that many aspects of the concerted activity of the salamander retinal neurons can be traced simply to the external input. A model of non-interacting neurons subject to a nonstationary external field outperforms a model with stationary input with couplings between neurons, even accounting for the differences in the number of model parameters. When couplings are added to the nonstationary model, for the retinal data, little is gained: the inferred couplings are generally not significant. Likewise, the distribution of the sizes of sets of neurons that spike simultaneously and the frequency of spike patterns as a function of their rank (Zipf plots) are well explained by an independent-neuron model with time-dependent external input, and adding connections to such a model does not offer significant improvement. For the cortical model data, robust couplings, well correlated with the real connections, can be inferred using the nonstationary model. Adding connections to this model slightly improves the agreement with the data for the probability of synchronous spikes but hardly affects the Zipf plot. (paper)

  7. How to use the Standard Model effective field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henning, Brian; Lu, Xiaochuan [Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley,Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Theoretical Physics Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Murayama, Hitoshi [Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley,Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Theoretical Physics Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI),Todai Institutes for Advanced Study, University of Tokyo,Kashiwa 277-8583 (Japan)

    2016-01-05

    We present a practical three-step procedure of using the Standard Model effective field theory (SM EFT) to connect ultraviolet (UV) models of new physics with weak scale precision observables. With this procedure, one can interpret precision measurements as constraints on a given UV model. We give a detailed explanation for calculating the effective action up to one-loop order in a manifestly gauge covariant fashion. This covariant derivative expansion method dramatically simplifies the process of matching a UV model with the SM EFT, and also makes available a universal formalism that is easy to use for a variety of UV models. A few general aspects of RG running effects and choosing operator bases are discussed. Finally, we provide mapping results between the bosonic sector of the SM EFT and a complete set of precision electroweak and Higgs observables to which present and near future experiments are sensitive. Many results and tools which should prove useful to those wishing to use the SM EFT are detailed in several appendices.

  8. How to use the Standard Model effective field theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, Brian; Lu, Xiaochuan; Murayama, Hitoshi

    2016-01-01

    We present a practical three-step procedure of using the Standard Model effective field theory (SM EFT) to connect ultraviolet (UV) models of new physics with weak scale precision observables. With this procedure, one can interpret precision measurements as constraints on a given UV model. We give a detailed explanation for calculating the effective action up to one-loop order in a manifestly gauge covariant fashion. This covariant derivative expansion method dramatically simplifies the process of matching a UV model with the SM EFT, and also makes available a universal formalism that is easy to use for a variety of UV models. A few general aspects of RG running effects and choosing operator bases are discussed. Finally, we provide mapping results between the bosonic sector of the SM EFT and a complete set of precision electroweak and Higgs observables to which present and near future experiments are sensitive. Many results and tools which should prove useful to those wishing to use the SM EFT are detailed in several appendices.

  9. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  10. Modeling of eating style and its effect on intake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, van den J.H.W.; Mars, M.

    2015-01-01

    Observational research has indicated that modeling of eating style might occur when eating in the presence of an eating companion. This experiment investigated the effect of bite frequency of a same-sex eating companion on bite frequency, meal size and meal duration. A total of 30 normal weight

  11. relative effectiveness of assertive training, modelling and their

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth Egbochuku

    Imo State University. Owerri e-mail: timasy.ikenegbu@yahoo.com. Abstract. The study investigated the Relative Effectiveness of Assertive Training (AT), modelling (M) and ... conversation skills; assertiveness skills, play interaction skills; self-related ... possession of poor, inefficient or inadequate social skills, low self-esteem,.

  12. Effects of Peer Modelling Technique in Reducing Substance Abuse ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the effects of peer modelling techniques in reducing substance abuse among undergraduates in Nigeria. The participants were one hundred and twenty (120) undergraduate students in 100 and 400 levels respectively. There are two groups: one treatment group and one control group.

  13. CREATING EFFECTIVE MODELS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATED STRUCTURES IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Koliesnikov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of scientific research aimed at development of methodology-theoretical mechanisms of building the effective models of vertically-integrated structures are presented. A presence of vertically-integrated structures on natural-monopolistic markets at private and governmental sectors of economy and priority directions of integration are given.

  14. Computer Simulation (Microcultures): An Effective Model for Multicultural Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jorge O.

    This paper presents a rationale for using high-fidelity computer simulation in planning for and implementing effective multicultural education strategies. Using computer simulation, educators can begin to understand and plan for the concept of cultural sensitivity in delivering instruction. The model promises to emphasize teachers' understanding…

  15. Effective ellipsoidal models for wavefield extrapolation in tilted orthorhombic media

    KAUST Repository

    Waheed, Umair Bin

    2016-04-22

    Wavefield computations using the ellipsoidally anisotropic extrapolation operator offer significant cost reduction compared to that for the orthorhombic case, especially when the symmetry planes are tilted and/or rotated. However, ellipsoidal anisotropy does not provide accurate wavefield representation or imaging for media of orthorhombic symmetry. Therefore, we propose the use of ‘effective ellipsoidally anisotropic’ models that correctly capture the kinematic behaviour of wavefields for tilted orthorhombic (TOR) media. We compute effective velocities for the ellipsoidally anisotropic medium using kinematic high-frequency representation of the TOR wavefield, obtained by solving the TOR eikonal equation. The effective model allows us to use the cheaper ellipsoidally anisotropic wave extrapolation operators. Although the effective models are obtained by kinematic matching using high-frequency asymptotic, the resulting wavefield contains most of the critical wavefield components, including frequency dependency and caustics, if present, with reasonable accuracy. The proposed methodology offers a much better cost versus accuracy trade-off for wavefield computations in TOR media, particularly for media of low to moderate anisotropic strength. Furthermore, the computed wavefield solution is free from shear-wave artefacts as opposed to the conventional finite-difference based TOR wave extrapolation scheme. We demonstrate applicability and usefulness of our formulation through numerical tests on synthetic TOR models. © 2016 Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, v.v.i

  16. Modeling and Simulation of the Visual Effects of Colored Filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    AFRL-RH-FS-TR-2015-0006 Modeling and Simulation of the Visual Effects of Colored Filters William R. Brockmeier Michael A. Guevara Thomas K. Kuyk...NUMBER FA8650-14-D-65190 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 0603231F 6. AUTHOR(S) William R. Brockmeier, Michael A. Guevara , Thomas K

  17. STAS and Logit Modeling of Advertising and Promotion Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Yssing Hansen, Lotte; Grønholdt, Lars

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases using the British single-source database Adlab. STAS and logit modeling are the two measures studied. Results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which, they give...

  18. Developing a More Effective Recruitment and Retention Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, Walter; Kelly, Gary

    The purpose of a project was to develop a model for more effective recruitment and retention of people of color in the Associate Degree Interior Design and Diploma Interior Design Assistant Program at Milwaukee Area Technical College (MATC), Wisconsin. During Activity One, individuals in MATC's Student Development and High School Relations…

  19. Correlation effects in the Ising model in an external field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, H.E.; Silva, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    The thermodynamic properties of the spin-1/2 Ising Model in an external field are evaluated through the use of the exponential differential operator method and Callen's exact relations. The correlations effects are treated in a phenomenological approach and the results are compared with other treatments. (Author) [pt

  20. Influence of seeing effects on cloud model inversions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tziotziou, K.; Heinzel, Petr; Tsiropoula, G.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 472, č. 1 (2007), s. 287-292 ISSN 0004-6361 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10030501 Keywords : cloud model * inversions * seeing effects Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2007

  1. Learning from a role model: A cascade or whirlpool effect?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jochemsen-van der Leeuw, H. G. A. Ria; Buwalda, Nienke; Wieringa-de Waard, Margreet; van Dijk, Nynke

    2015-01-01

    Continuing Professional Development (CPD) and Faculty Development (FD) courses have been designed in the expectation that a cascade effect will occur, consisting of a conveyance of information from the courses to clinical trainers to daily practice and/or to trainees by means of role modeling. The

  2. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  3. Towards a more effective model for distance education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koper, Rob

    2014-01-01

    Reference: Koper, E.J.R. (2014). Towards a more effective model for distance education. e-Learning and Education. e-Learning and Education, 10. urn:nbn:de:0009-5-40105 http://eleed.campussource.de/archive/10/4010

  4. Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Individual Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a generalized method of moments (GMM based estimation for dynamic panel data models with individual specific fixed effects and threshold effects simultaneously. We extend Hansen’s (Hansen, 1999 original setup to models including endogenous regressors, specifically, lagged dependent variables. To address the problem of endogeneity of these nonlinear dynamic panel data models, we prove that the orthogonality conditions proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991 are valid. The threshold and slope parameters are estimated by GMM, and asymptotic distribution of the slope parameters is derived. Finite sample performance of the estimation is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the threshold and slope parameter can be estimated accurately and also the finite sample distribution of slope parameters is well approximated by the asymptotic distribution.

  5. Modelling the effects of treatment and quarantine on measles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beay, Lazarus Kalvein

    2018-03-01

    Treatment and quarantine are efforts to cure as well as to overcome the spread of diseases including measles. The spread of measles can be expressed by mathematical modelling in the form of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this study was conducted on the spread of measles by considering the effect of treatment and quarantine on the infected individuals. By using the basic reproduction number of the model, can be analyzed the effects of treatment and quarantine to reduce the spread of measles. Basic reproduction number of models is monotonically descreasing as treatment and quarantine increasing. Numerical simulations conducted on the analysis of the results. The results showed that treatment and quarantine was given to infected individuals who were infectious has a major influence to eliminate measles from the system.

  6. Effect Of Oceanic Lithosphere Age Errors On Model Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLaughter, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The thermal structure of the oceanic lithosphere is the subject of a long-standing controversy. Because the thermal structure varies with age, it governs properties such as heat flow, density, and bathymetry with important implications for plate tectonics. Though bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow for young (appears to be shallower than expected for older lithosphere indicating a plate model is a better fit. It is therefore useful to jointly fit bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow data to an inverse model to determine lithospheric structure details. Though inverse models usually include the effect of errors in bathymetry, heat flow, and geoid, they rarely examine the effects of errors in age. This may have the effect of introducing subtle biases into inverse models of the oceanic lithosphere. Because the inverse problem for thermal structure is both ill-posed and ill-conditioned, these overlooked errors may have a greater effect than expected. The problem is further complicated by the non-uniform distribution of age and errors in age estimates; for example, only 30% of the oceanic lithosphere is older than 80 MY and less than 3% is older than 150 MY. To determine the potential strength of such biases, I have used the age and error maps of Mueller et al (2008) to forward model the bathymetry for half space and GDH1 plate models. For ages less than 20 MY, both models give similar results. The errors induced by uncertainty in age are relatively large and suggest that when possible young lithosphere should be excluded when examining the lithospheric thermal model. As expected, GDH1 bathymetry converges asymptotically on the theoretical result for error-free data for older data. The resulting uncertainty is nearly as large as that introduced by errors in the other parameters; in the absence of other errors, the models can only be distinguished for ages greater than 80 MY. These results suggest that the problem should be approached with the minimum possible number of

  7. Incorporating herd immunity effects into cohort models of vaccine cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Chris T; Anonychuk, Andrea M; Van Effelterre, Thierry; Pham, Bá Z; Merid, Maraki Fikre

    2009-01-01

    Cohort models are often used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of vaccination. However, because they cannot capture herd immunity effects, cohort models underestimate the reduction in incidence caused by vaccination. Dynamic models capture herd immunity effects but are often not adopted in vaccine CEA. The objective was to develop a pseudo-dynamic approximation that can be incorporated into an existing cohort model to capture herd immunity effects. The authors approximated changing force of infection due to universal vaccination for a pediatric infectious disease. The projected lifetime cases in a cohort were compared under 1) a cohort model, 2) a cohort model with pseudo-dynamic approximation, and 3) an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental (dynamic) model. The authors extended the methodology to sexually transmitted infections. For average to high values of vaccine coverage (P > 60%) and small to average values of the basic reproduction number (R(0) vaccination programs for many common infections, the pseudo-dynamic approximation significantly improved projected lifetime cases and was close to projections of the full dynamic model. For large values of R(0) (R(0) > 15), projected lifetime cases were similar under the dynamic model and the cohort model, both with and without pseudo-dynamic approximation. The approximation captures changes in the mean age at infection in the 1st vaccinated cohort. This methodology allows for preliminary assessment of herd immunity effects on CEA of universal vaccination for pediatric infectious diseases. The method requires simple adjustments to an existing cohort model and less data than a full dynamic model.

  8. Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Residential Buildings: Sensitivity Analysis and Guidance on Model Inputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, Jason D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Winkler, Jonathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-31

    Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to the interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.

  9. Fluid analog model for boundary effects in field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, L. H.; Svaiter, N. F.

    2009-01-01

    Quantum fluctuations in the density of a fluid with a linear phonon dispersion relation are studied. In particular, we treat the changes in these fluctuations due to nonclassical states of phonons and to the presence of boundaries. These effects are analogous to similar effects in relativistic quantum field theory, and we argue that the case of the fluid is a useful analog model for effects in field theory. We further argue that the changes in the mean squared density are, in principle, observable by light scattering experiments.

  10. Modeling of Drift Effects on Solar Tower Concentrated Flux Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis O. Lara-Cerecedo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel modeling tool for calculation of central receiver concentrated flux distributions is presented, which takes into account drift effects. This tool is based on a drift model that includes different geometrical error sources in a rigorous manner and on a simple analytic approximation for the individual flux distribution of a heliostat. The model is applied to a group of heliostats of a real field to obtain the resulting flux distribution and its variation along the day. The distributions differ strongly from those obtained assuming the ideal case without drift or a case with a Gaussian tracking error function. The time evolution of peak flux is also calculated to demonstrate the capabilities of the model. The evolution of this parameter also shows strong differences in comparison to the case without drift.

  11. CRLH Transmission Lines for Telecommunications: Fast and Effective Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A different parameter extraction approach based on zero immittances for composite right/left-handed (CRLH structure is presented. For lossless unit cell equivalent circuit model, LC parameters of series and parallel branches are extracted according to series resonance frequency and parallel resonance frequency, respectively. This approach can be applied to symmetric and unbalanced CRLH structures. The parameter extraction procedure is provided and validated by T-type unit cell model. The responses of distributed prototype and extracted equivalent LC circuit model are in good agreement. The equivalent circuit modeling can improve the degree of freedom in the CRLH TLs design. This parameter extraction method provides an effective and straightforward way in CRLH metamaterials design and applications in telecommunication systems.

  12. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : carrier intervention effectiveness model, version 1.0 : [analysis brief].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM) : provides the Federal Motor Carrier Safety : Administration (FMCSA) with a tool for measuring : the safety benefits of carrier interventions conducted : under the Compliance, Safety, Accountability...

  13. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  14. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside : inspections and traffic enforcements i...

  15. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model fiscal year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  16. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model, fiscal year 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  17. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model, Version 1.1, technical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  18. Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C.; LeBlanc, D.C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)]|[Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial alteration of forest composition, forest dieback, or even loss of forest cover in response to increased temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. Model functions that represent the influence of climate on tree growth are based on the geographic range limits of a species, predicting maximal growth in the center of the range and zero growth (100% mortality) at the range limits and beyond. Many tree species can survive in climatic conditions outside their present range limits and can tolerate widely fluctuating climate regimes. Hence, there is reason to suspect that published projections of forest responses to climate change may exaggerate the direct impact of climate on tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models.

  19. Evolutive masing model, cyclic plasticity, ageing and memory effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidoroff, F.

    1987-01-01

    Many models are proposed for the mechanical description of the cyclic behaviour of metals and used for structure analysis under cyclic loading. Such a model must include two basic features: Dissipative behaviour on each cycle (hysteresis loop); evolution of this behaviour during the material's life (cyclic hardening or softening, aging,...). However, if both aspects are present in most existing models, the balance between them may be quite different. Many metallurgical investigations have been performed about the microstructure and its evolution during cyclic loading, and it is desirable to introduce these informations in phenomenological models. The evolutive Masing model has been proposed to combine: the accuracy of hereditary models for the description of hysteresis on each cycle, the versatility of internal variables for the state description and evolution, a sufficient microstructural basis to make the interaction easier with microstructural investigations. The purpose of the present work is to discuss this model and to compare different evolution assumptions with respect to some memory effects (cyclic hardening and softening, multilevel tests, aging). Attention is limited to uniaxial, rate independent elasto-plastic behaviour

  20. Modeling the dispersion effects of contractile fibers in smooth muscles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtada, Sae-Il; Kroon, Martin; Holzapfel, Gerhard A.

    2010-12-01

    Micro-structurally based models for smooth muscle contraction are crucial for a better understanding of pathological conditions such as atherosclerosis, incontinence and asthma. It is meaningful that models consider the underlying mechanical structure and the biochemical activation. Hence, a simple mechanochemical model is proposed that includes the dispersion of the orientation of smooth muscle myofilaments and that is capable to capture available experimental data on smooth muscle contraction. This allows a refined study of the effects of myofilament dispersion on the smooth muscle contraction. A classical biochemical model is used to describe the cross-bridge interactions with the thin filament in smooth muscles in which calcium-dependent myosin phosphorylation is the only regulatory mechanism. A novel mechanical model considers the dispersion of the contractile fiber orientations in smooth muscle cells by means of a strain-energy function in terms of one dispersion parameter. All model parameters have a biophysical meaning and may be estimated through comparisons with experimental data. The contraction of the middle layer of a carotid artery is studied numerically. Using a tube the relationships between the internal pressure and the stretches are investigated as functions of the dispersion parameter, which implies a strong influence of the orientation of smooth muscle myofilaments on the contraction response. It is straightforward to implement this model in a finite element code to better analyze more complex boundary-value problems.

  1. One-loop effective potential from compactified superstring models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, M.K.

    1985-10-01

    A recent determination is reported of the one loop effective potential from the effective tree Lagrangian in models obtained from compactification of the zero-slope limit of superstring theories, both with and without induced terms conjectured to arise from nonperturbative effects in a hidden sector theory. In the absence of condensate effects, the vacuum structure of the tree potential is preserved by the one-loop radiative corrections. In the presence of supersymmetry breaking condensate effects at tree level, the gauge non-singlet scalars remain massless at the one-loop level. In this case the vacuum expectation value of Re t and therefore the gravitino mass are determined at one loop. Specifically, it is found that the gravitino mass, the condensate scale, and the grand unification scale must all lie within a few orders of the Planck scale. 14 refs

  2. Modeling accuracy as a function of response time with the generalized linear mixed effects model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, D J; Martin, A E

    2013-09-01

    In psycholinguistic studies using error rates as a response measure, response times (RT) are most often analyzed independently of the error rate, although it is widely recognized that they are related. In this paper we present a mixed effects logistic regression model for the error rate that uses RT as a trial-level fixed- and random-effect regression input. Production data from a translation-recall experiment are analyzed as an example. Several model comparisons reveal that RT improves the fit of the regression model for the error rate. Two simulation studies then show how the mixed effects regression model can identify individual participants for whom (a) faster responses are more accurate, (b) faster responses are less accurate, or (c) there is no relation between speed and accuracy. These results show that this type of model can serve as a useful adjunct to traditional techniques, allowing psycholinguistic researchers to examine more closely the relationship between RT and accuracy in individual subjects and better account for the variability which may be present, as well as a preliminary step to more advanced RT-accuracy modeling. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling the Cumulative Effects of Social Exposures on Health: Moving beyond Disease-Specific Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather L. White

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The traditional explanatory models used in epidemiology are “disease specific”, identifying risk factors for specific health conditions. Yet social exposures lead to a generalized, cumulative health impact which may not be specific to one illness. Disease-specific models may therefore misestimate social factors’ effects on health. Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and Canada 2001 Census we construct and compare “disease-specific” and “generalized health impact” (GHI models to gauge the negative health effects of one social exposure: socioeconomic position (SEP. We use logistic and multinomial multilevel modeling with neighbourhood-level material deprivation, individual-level education and household income to compare and contrast the two approaches. In disease-specific models, the social determinants under study were each associated with the health conditions of interest. However, larger effect sizes were apparent when outcomes were modeled as compound health problems (0, 1, 2, or 3+ conditions using the GHI approach. To more accurately estimate social exposures’ impacts on population health, researchers should consider a GHI framework.

  4. Modeling Grade IV Gas Emboli using a Limited Failure Population Model with Random Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Laura A.; Conkin, Johnny; Chhikara, Raj S.; Powell, Michael R.

    2002-05-01

    Venous gas emboli (VGE) (gas bubbles in venous blood) are associated with an increased risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in hypobaric environments. A high grade of VGE can be a precursor to serious DCS. In this paper, we model time to Grade IV VGE considering a subset of individuals assumed to be immune from experiencing VGE. Our data contain monitoring test results from subjects undergoing up to 13 denitrogenation test procedures prior to exposure to a hypobaric environment. The onset time of Grade IV VGE is recorded as contained within certain time intervals. We fit a parametric (lognormal) mixture survival model to the interval-and right-censored data to account for the possibility of a subset of "cured" individuals who are immune to the event. Our model contains random subject effects to account for correlations between repeated measurements on a single individual. Model assessments and cross-validation indicate that this limited failure population mixture model is an improvement over a model that does not account for the potential of a fraction of cured individuals. We also evaluated some alternative mixture models. Predictions from the best fitted mixture model indicate that the actual process is reasonably approximated by a limited failure population model.

  5. Effective-field-theory model for the fractional quantum Hall effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, S. C.; Hansson, T. H.; Kivelson, S.

    1989-01-01

    Starting directly from the microscopic Hamiltonian, a field-theory model is derived for the fractional quantum Hall effect. By considering an approximate coarse-grained version of the same model, a Landau-Ginzburg theory similar to that of Girvin (1986) is constructed. The partition function of the model exhibits cusps as a function of density. It is shown that the collective density fluctuations are massive.

  6. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather

  7. Examples of mixed-effects modeling with crossed random effects and with binomial data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quené, H.; van den Bergh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Psycholinguistic data are often analyzed with repeated-measures analyses of variance (ANOVA), but this paper argues that mixed-effects (multilevel) models provide a better alternative method. First, models are discussed in which the two random factors of participants and items are crossed, and not

  8. Numerical modeling of ductile tearing effects on cleavage fracture toughness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodds, R.H. Jr.; Tang, M.; Anderson, T.L.

    1994-05-01

    Experimental studies demonstrate a significant effect of specimen size, a/W ratio and prior ductile tearing on cleavage fracture toughness values (J c ) measured in the ductile-to-brittle transition region of ferritic materials. In the lower-transition region, cleavage fracture often occurs under conditions of large-scale yielding but without prior ductile crack extension. The increased toughness develops when plastic zones formed at the crack tip interact with nearby specimen surfaces which relaxes crack-tip constraint (stress triaxiality). In the mid-to-upper transition region, small amounts of ductile crack extension (often c -values. Previous work by the authors described a micromechanics fracture model to correct measured J c -values for the mechanistic effects of large-scale yielding. This new work extends the model to also include the influence of ductile crack extension prior to cleavage. The paper explores development of the new model, provides necessary graphs and procedures for its application and demonstrates the effects of the model on fracture data sets for two pressure vessel steels (A533B and A515)

  9. A model to evaluate quality and effectiveness of disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, K M M; Nieboer, A P; van Schayck, C P; Asin, J D; Huijsman, R

    2008-12-01

    Disease management has emerged as a new strategy to enhance quality of care for patients suffering from chronic conditions, and to control healthcare costs. So far, however, the effects of this strategy remain unclear. Although current models define the concept of disease management, they do not provide a systematic development or an explanatory theory of how disease management affects the outcomes of care. The objective of this paper is to present a framework for valid evaluation of disease-management initiatives. The evaluation model is built on two pillars of disease management: patient-related and professional-directed interventions. The effectiveness of these interventions is thought to be affected by the organisational design of the healthcare system. Disease management requires a multifaceted approach; hence disease-management programme evaluations should focus on the effects of multiple interventions, namely patient-related, professional-directed and organisational interventions. The framework has been built upon the conceptualisation of these disease-management interventions. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms of these interventions revealed that learning and behavioural theories support the core assumptions of disease management. The evaluation model can be used to identify the components of disease-management programmes and the mechanisms behind them, making valid comparison feasible. In addition, this model links the programme interventions to indicators that can be used to evaluate the disease-management programme. Consistent use of this framework will enable comparisons among disease-management programmes and outcomes in evaluation research.

  10. Modeling nonlinear time-dependent treatment effects: an application of the generalized time-varying effect model (TVEM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiyko, Mariya P; Burkhalter, Jack; Li, Runze; Park, Bernard J

    2014-10-01

    The goal of this article is to introduce to social and behavioral scientists the generalized time-varying effect model (TVEM), a semiparametric approach for investigating time-varying effects of a treatment. The method is best suited for data collected intensively over time (e.g., experience sampling or ecological momentary assessments) and addresses questions pertaining to effects of treatment changing dynamically with time. Thus, of interest is the description of timing, magnitude, and (nonlinear) patterns of the effect. Our presentation focuses on practical aspects of the model. A step-by-step demonstration is presented in the context of an empirical study designed to evaluate effects of surgical treatment on quality of life among early stage lung cancer patients during posthospitalization recovery (N = 59; 61% female, M age = 66.1 years). Frequency and level of distress associated with physical symptoms were assessed twice daily over a 2-week period, providing a total of 1,544 momentary assessments. Traditional analyses (analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], repeated-measures ANCOVA, and multilevel modeling) yielded findings of no group differences. In contrast, generalized TVEM identified a pattern of the effect that varied in time and magnitude. Group differences manifested after Day 4. Generalized TVEM is a flexible statistical approach that offers insight into the complexity of treatment effects and allows modeling of nonnormal outcomes. The practical demonstration, shared syntax, and availability of a free set of macros aim to encourage researchers to apply TVEM to complex data and stimulate important scientific discoveries. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Comparative performance of high-fidelity training models for flexible ureteroscopy: Are all models effective?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashikant Mishra

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: We performed a comparative study of high-fidelity training models for flexible ureteroscopy (URS. Our objective was to determine whether high-fidelity non-virtual reality (VR models are as effective as the VR model in teaching flexible URS skills. Materials and Methods: Twenty-one trained urologists without clinical experience of flexible URS underwent dry lab simulation practice. After a warm-up period of 2 h, tasks were performed on a high-fidelity non-VR (Uro-scopic Trainer TM ; Endo-Urologie-Modell TM and a high-fidelity VR model (URO Mentor TM . The participants were divided equally into three batches with rotation on each of the three stations for 30 min. Performance of the trainees was evaluated by an expert ureteroscopist using pass rating and global rating score (GRS. The participants rated a face validity questionnaire at the end of each session. Results: The GRS improved statistically at evaluation performed after second rotation (P<0.001 for batches 1, 2 and 3. Pass ratings also improved significantly for all training models when the third and first rotations were compared (P<0.05. The batch that was trained on the VR-based model had more improvement on pass ratings on second rotation but could not achieve statistical significance. Most of the realistic domains were higher for a VR model as compared with the non-VR model, except the realism of the flexible endoscope. Conclusions: All the models used for training flexible URS were effective in increasing the GRS and pass ratings irrespective of the VR status.

  12. Model study of radiation effects on the gastrointestinal cell system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kicherer, G.

    1983-03-01

    Since it is now possible to calculate the radiation fields used for medicinal purposes by means of radiation transport programs it was started to determine with mathematical models of radioeffects not only the physical effects or irradiation, but also the resulting biological radioresponses. This supplementary biologic information is not only of large general importance, but particularly valuable for the medicinal application of the biologically highly effective neutron radiation. With support by the Institute for Medicinal Radiophysics and Radiobiology of Essen University Hospital, and of two biomathematical working groups of Ulm University and Cologne University Hospital, who are experienced in the field of establishing mathematical models of the hematogenic cellular system, we developed out of experimental fundamental findings a cellkinetic, kybernetic model of the intestinal mucosa, which is highly sensitive to radiation. With this newly established model we succeeded for the first time in simulating comprehensively and quantitatively the time-dependent acute radioresponse of such a radiosensitive cellular system. For the first time we successfully used the computer simulation languages DARE-P and GASP, which are principally employed for solving problems in automatic control technology, and set up a radioresponse model. (orig.) [de

  13. Multilevel Modeling of Individual and Group Level Mediated Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krull, J L; MacKinnon, D P

    2001-04-01

    This article combines procedures for single-level mediational analysis with multilevel modeling techniques in order to appropriately test mediational effects in clustered data. A simulation study compared the performance of these multilevel mediational models with that of single-level mediational models in clustered data with individual- or group-level initial independent variables, individual- or group-level mediators, and individual level outcomes. The standard errors of mediated effects from the multilevel solution were generally accurate, while those from the single-level procedure were downwardly biased, often by 20% or more. The multilevel advantage was greatest in those situations involving group-level variables, larger group sizes, and higher intraclass correlations in mediator and outcome variables. Multilevel mediational modeling methods were also applied to data from a preventive intervention designed to reduce intentions to use steroids among players on high school football teams. This example illustrates differences between single-level and multilevel mediational modeling in real-world clustered data and shows how the multilevel technique may lead to more accurate results.

  14. Modelling of structural effects on chemical reactions in turbulent flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gammelsaeter, H.R.

    1997-12-31

    Turbulence-chemistry interactions are analysed using algebraic moment closure for the chemical reaction term. The coupling between turbulence and chemical length and time scales generate a complex interaction process. This interaction process is called structural effects in this work. The structural effects are shown to take place on all scales between the largest scale of turbulence and the scales of the molecular motions. The set of equations describing turbulent correlations involved in turbulent reacting flows are derived. Interactions are shown schematically using interaction charts. Algebraic equations for the turbulent correlations in the reaction rate are given using the interaction charts to include the most significant couplings. In the frame of fundamental combustion physics, the structural effects appearing on the small scales of turbulence are proposed modelled using a discrete spectrum of turbulent scales. The well-known problem of averaging the Arrhenius law, the specific reaction rate, is proposed solved using a presumed single variable probability density function and a sub scale model for the reaction volume. Although some uncertainties are expected, the principles are addressed. Fast chemistry modelling is shown to be consistent in the frame of algebraic moment closure when the turbulence-chemistry interaction is accounted for in the turbulent diffusion. The modelling proposed in this thesis is compared with experimental data for an laboratory methane flame and advanced probability density function modelling. The results show promising features. Finally it is shown a comparison with full scale measurements for an industrial burner. All features of the burner are captured with the model. 41 refs., 33 figs.

  15. Model Uncertainties for Valencia RPA Effect for MINERvA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Richard [Univ. of Minnesota, Duluth, MN (United States)

    2017-05-08

    This technical note describes the application of the Valencia RPA multi-nucleon effect and its uncertainty to QE reactions from the GENIE neutrino event generator. The analysis of MINERvA neutrino data in Rodrigues et al. PRL 116 071802 (2016) paper makes clear the need for an RPA suppression, especially at very low momentum and energy transfer. That published analysis does not constrain the magnitude of the effect; it only tests models with and without the effect against the data. Other MINERvA analyses need an expression of the model uncertainty in the RPA effect. A well-described uncertainty can be used for systematics for unfolding, for model errors in the analysis of non-QE samples, and as input for fitting exercises for model testing or constraining backgrounds. This prescription takes uncertainties on the parameters in the Valencia RPA model and adds a (not-as-tight) constraint from muon capture data. For MINERvA we apply it as a 2D ($q_0$,$q_3$) weight to GENIE events, in lieu of generating a full beyond-Fermi-gas quasielastic events. Because it is a weight, it can be applied to the generated and fully Geant4 simulated events used in analysis without a special GENIE sample. For some limited uses, it could be cast as a 1D $Q^2$ weight without much trouble. This procedure is a suitable starting point for NOvA and DUNE where the energy dependence is modest, but probably not adequate for T2K or MicroBooNE.

  16. Effective Orthorhombic Anisotropic Models for Wave field Extrapolation

    KAUST Repository

    Ibanez Jacome, Wilson

    2013-05-01

    Wavefield extrapolation in orthorhombic anisotropic media incorporates complicated but realistic models, to reproduce wave propagation phenomena in the Earth\\'s subsurface. Compared with the representations used for simpler symmetries, such as transversely isotropic or isotropic, orthorhombic models require an extended and more elaborated formulation that also involves more expensive computational processes. The acoustic assumption yields more efficient description of the orthorhombic wave equation that also provides a simplified representation for the orthorhombic dispersion relation. However, such representation is hampered by the sixth-order nature of the acoustic wave equation, as it also encompasses the contribution of shear waves. To reduce the computational cost of wavefield extrapolation in such media, I generate effective isotropic inhomogeneous models that are capable of reproducing the first-arrival kinematic aspects of the orthorhombic wavefield. First, in order to compute traveltimes in vertical orthorhombic media, I develop a stable, efficient and accurate algorithm based on the fast marching method. The derived orthorhombic acoustic dispersion relation, unlike the isotropic or transversely isotropic one, is represented by a sixth order polynomial equation that includes the fastest solution corresponding to outgoing P-waves in acoustic media. The effective velocity models are then computed by evaluating the traveltime gradients of the orthorhombic traveltime solution, which is done by explicitly solving the isotropic eikonal equation for the corresponding inhomogeneous isotropic velocity field. The inverted effective velocity fields are source dependent and produce equivalent first-arrival kinematic descriptions of wave propagation in orthorhombic media. I extrapolate wavefields in these isotropic effective velocity models using the more efficient isotropic operator, and the results compare well, especially kinematically, with those obtained from the

  17. Elements of effective palliative care models: a rapid review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckett, Tim; Phillips, Jane; Agar, Meera; Virdun, Claudia; Green, Anna; Davidson, Patricia M

    2014-03-26

    Population ageing, changes to the profiles of life-limiting illnesses and evolving societal attitudes prompt a critical evaluation of models of palliative care. We set out to identify evidence-based models of palliative care to inform policy reform in Australia. A rapid review of electronic databases and the grey literature was undertaken over an eight week period in April-June 2012. We included policy documents and comparative studies from countries within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published in English since 2001. Meta-analysis was planned where >1 study met criteria; otherwise, synthesis was narrative using methods described by Popay et al. (2006). Of 1,959 peer-reviewed articles, 23 reported systematic reviews, 9 additional RCTs and 34 non-randomised comparative studies. Variation in the content of models, contexts in which these were implemented and lack of detailed reporting meant that elements of models constituted a more meaningful unit of analysis than models themselves. Case management was the element most consistently reported in models for which comparative studies provided evidence for effectiveness. Essential attributes of population-based palliative care models identified by policy and addressed by more than one element were communication and coordination between providers (including primary care), skill enhancement, and capacity to respond rapidly to individuals' changing needs and preferences over time. Models of palliative care should integrate specialist expertise with primary and community care services and enable transitions across settings, including residential aged care. The increasing complexity of care needs, services, interventions and contextual drivers warrants future research aimed at elucidating the interactions between different components and the roles played by patient, provider and health system factors. The findings of this review are limited by its rapid methodology and focus on model

  18. A Linear Mixed-Effects Model of Wireless Spectrum Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pagadarai Srikanth

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide regression analysis-based statistical models to explain the usage of wireless spectrum across four mid-size US cities in four frequency bands. Specifically, the variations in spectrum occupancy across space, time, and frequency are investigated and compared between different sites within the city as well as with other cities. By applying the mixed-effects models, several conclusions are drawn that give the occupancy percentage and the ON time duration of the licensed signal transmission as a function of several predictor variables.

  19. A multifluid mix model with material strength effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, C. H. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Scannapieco, A. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-04-23

    We present a new multifluid mix model. Its features include material strength effects and pressure and temperature nonequilibrium between mixing materials. It is applicable to both interpenetration and demixing of immiscible fluids and diffusion of miscible fluids. The presented model exhibits the appropriate smooth transition in mathematical form as the mixture evolves from multiphase to molecular mixing, extending its applicability to the intermediate stages in which both types of mixing are present. Virtual mass force and momentum exchange have been generalized for heterogeneous multimaterial mixtures. The compression work has been extended so that the resulting species energy equations are consistent with the pressure force and material strength.

  20. Effect of PLISSIT Model on Solution of Sexual Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esra Uslu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review study aims to determine the effect of PLISSIT model (permission, limited information, special suggestions, intensive therapy in the care of individuals having sexual problems. Two of the studies included in the systematic review have been carried out in Iran and one of them in Turkey. These studies were limited to the patients with stoma and women having sexual problems. Results presented that care via PLISSIT model improves the sexual functions and reduces sexual stress, increases the sexual desire, sexual arousal, lubrication, orgasm, sexual satisfaction and frequency of sexual activity. [Psikiyatride Guncel Yaklasimlar - Current Approaches in Psychiatry 2016; 8(1: 52-63

  1. The model of manpower management influence on mining business effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriama Hakelová

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Manpower management is one of the documents in a business firm which reflects the philosophy of human resources work, sets the priorities and procedures for the capacity of personal processes. The article describes the theoretical model considering the manpower management aspects which are related to adopting the competency model in mining business respecting the triad of capacity management namely by assessing the work capacity, remuneration, education and employees ? growth. The motivation of employees, their efficiency and the work productivity will increase by the impact of the manpower management aspects which will provide the increase of mining business effectiveness.

  2. CORPORATE FORESIGHT AND PERFORMANCE: A CHAIN-OF-EFFECTS MODEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jissink, Tymen; Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Rohrbeck, René

    2015-01-01

    , formal organization, and culture. We investigate the relation of corporate foresight with three innovation performance dimensions – new product success, new product innovativeness, and financial performance. We use partial-least-squares structural equations modelling to assess our measurement mode ls......In this paper we develop and validate a measurement scale for corporate foresight and examine its impact on performance in a chain-of-effects model. We conceptualize corporate foresight as an organizational ability consisting of five distinct dimensions: information scope, method usage, people...... performance dimensions. Implications of our findings, and limitations and future research avenues are discussed....

  3. Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

    2016-01-01

    Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

  4. Edge effect modeling and experiments on active lap processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Haitao; Wu, Fan; Zeng, Zhige; Fan, Bin; Wan, Yongjian

    2014-05-05

    Edge effect is regarded as one of the most difficult technical issues for fabricating large primary mirrors, especially for large polishing tools. Computer controlled active lap (CCAL) uses a large size pad (e.g., 1/3 to 1/5 workpiece diameters) to grind and polish the primary mirror. Edge effect also exists in the CCAL process in our previous fabrication. In this paper the material removal rules when edge effects happen (i.e. edge tool influence functions (TIFs)) are obtained through experiments, which are carried out on a Φ1090-mm circular flat mirror with a 375-mm-diameter lap. Two methods are proposed to model the edge TIFs for CCAL. One is adopting the pressure distribution which is calculated based on the finite element analysis method. The other is building up a parametric equivalent pressure model to fit the removed material curve directly. Experimental results show that these two methods both effectively model the edge TIF of CCAL.

  5. GCR Environmental Models III: GCR Model Validation and Propagated Uncertainties in Effective Dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaba, Tony C.; Xu, Xiaojing; Blattnig, Steve R.; Norman, Ryan B.

    2014-01-01

    This is the last of three papers focused on quantifying the uncertainty associated with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) models used for space radiation shielding applications. In the first paper, it was found that GCR ions with Z>2 and boundary energy below 500 MeV/nucleon induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This is an important finding since GCR model development and validation have been heavily biased toward Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer measurements below 500 MeV/nucleon. Weights were also developed that quantify the relative contribution of defined GCR energy and charge groups to effective dose behind shielding. In the second paper, it was shown that these weights could be used to efficiently propagate GCR model uncertainties into effective dose behind shielding. In this work, uncertainties are quantified for a few commonly used GCR models. A validation metric is developed that accounts for measurements uncertainty, and the metric is coupled to the fast uncertainty propagation method. For this work, the Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) 2010 and 2011 and the Matthia GCR models are compared to an extensive measurement database. It is shown that BON2011 systematically overestimates heavy ion fluxes in the range 0.5-4 GeV/nucleon. The BON2010 and BON2011 also show moderate and large errors in reproducing past solar activity near the 2000 solar maximum and 2010 solar minimum. It is found that all three models induce relative errors in effective dose in the interval [-20%, 20%] at a 68% confidence level. The BON2010 and Matthia models are found to have similar overall uncertainty estimates and are preferred for space radiation shielding applications.

  6. A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleacher, L.; Jones, A. P.; Farrell, W. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

  7. A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleacher, L. V.; Jones, A. J. P.; Farrell, W. M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

  8. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  9. Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Yong; Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. → The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. → We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.

  10. Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yong, E-mail: hsux3@nwpu.edu.cn [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2011-07-15

    Highlights: > We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. > The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. > We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.

  11. Modeling productivity and transpiration of Pinus radiata: climatic effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheriff, D. W.; Mattay, J. P.; McMurtrie, R. E.

    1996-01-01

    Climatic effects on annual net carbon gain, stem biomass and annual transpiration were simulated for Pinus radiata D. Don at Canberra and Mt. Gambier. Simulations were conducted with an existing process-based forest growth model (BIOMASS, Model 1) and with a modified version of the BIOMASS model (Model 2) in which response functions for carbon assimilation and leaf conductance were replaced with those derived from field gas exchange data collected at Mt. Gambier. Simulated carbon gain was compared with a published report stating that mean annual stem volume increment (MAI) at Mt. Gambier was 1.8 times greater than at Canberra and that the difference could be the result solely of differences in climate. Regional differences in climate resulted in a 20% greater simulated annual transpiration at Canberra than at Mt. Gambier but only small differences in simulated productivity, indicating that climatic differences did not account for the reported differences in productivity. With Model 1, simulated annual net carbon gain and annual increase in stem biomass were greater at Canberra than at Mt. Gambier, whereas Model 2 indicated a similar annual net carbon gain and annual stem biomass increase in both regions.

  12. Effects of model schematisation, geometry and parameter values on urban flood modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vojinovic, Z; Seyoum, S D; Mwalwaka, J M; Price, R K

    2011-01-01

    One-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic models have been used as a standard industry practice for urban flood modelling work for many years. More recently, however, model formulations have included a 1D representation of the main channels and a 2D representation of the floodplains. Since the physical process of describing exchanges of flows with the floodplains can be represented in different ways, the predictive capability of different modelling approaches can also vary. The present paper explores effects of some of the issues that concern urban flood modelling work. Impacts from applying different model schematisation, geometry and parameter values were investigated. The study has mainly focussed on exploring how different Digital Terrain Model (DTM) resolution, presence of different features on DTM such as roads and building structures and different friction coefficients affect the simulation results. Practical implications of these issues are analysed and illustrated in a case study from St Maarten, N.A. The results from this study aim to provide users of numerical models with information that can be used in the analyses of flooding processes in urban areas.

  13. A model for electrode effects using percolation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuethrich, R.; Bleuler, H.

    2004-01-01

    Electrode effects are known for more than 150 years. These effects, with undesirable consequences in industrial aluminium electrolysis, can be used to micro-machine glass with Spark Assisted Chemical Engraving (SACE). In this paper, a novel approach for theoretical analysis of the phenomenon is proposed by considering the bubble growth and bubble departure from electrodes as a stochastic process. The critical conditions (critical voltage and current density) are predicted in function of electrode geometry and electrolyte concentration as well as the static mean current-voltage characteristics prior to the onset of the effects. The different regions of the current-voltage characteristics, as identified by previous authors, are described and explained. It is shown that all relevant processes for the onset of the electrodes effects happen in the adherence region of the bubble layer. The model is applied for vertical cylindrical electrodes and compared with experimental data

  14. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S

    2004-01-01

    for the estimation of the EFI. However none of these methods are found to be adequately robust and/or able to work on the low data input defined by the OMNIITOX Base Model (BM), i.e. a minimum of three acute EC50 values. Given the fact that the BM should be applicable to a significant number of chemicals......, this requirement follows from the current and the most likely future data availability as defined by the proposed EU chemicals policy REACH. In this paper, a theoretical elaboration of effect-based average approaches (arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median) and the non-effect based approach (PNEC) is made...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  15. Expanding the developmental models of writing: A direct and indirect effects model of developmental writing (DIEW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young-Suk Grace; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    We investigated direct and indirect effects of component skills on writing (DIEW) using data from 193 children in Grade 1. In this model, working memory was hypothesized to be a foundational cognitive ability for language and cognitive skills as well as transcription skills, which, in turn, contribute to writing. Foundational oral language skills (vocabulary and grammatical knowledge) and higher-order cognitive skills (inference and theory of mind) were hypothesized to be component skills of text generation (i.e., discourse-level oral language). Results from structural equation modeling largely supported a complete mediation model among four variations of the DIEW model. Discourse-level oral language, spelling, and handwriting fluency completely mediated the relations of higher-order cognitive skills, foundational oral language, and working memory to writing. Moreover, language and cognitive skills had both direct and indirect relations to discourse-level oral language. Total effects, including direct and indirect effects, were substantial for discourse-level oral language (.46), working memory (.43), and spelling (.37), followed by vocabulary (.19), handwriting (.17), theory of mind (.12), inference (.10), and grammatical knowledge (.10). The model explained approximately 67% of variance in writing quality. These results indicate that multiple language and cognitive skills make direct and indirect contributions, and it is important to consider both direct and indirect pathways of influences when considering skills that are important to writing. PMID:28260812

  16. Expanding the Developmental Models of Writing: A Direct and Indirect Effects Model of Developmental Writing (DIEW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young-Suk Grace; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    We investigated direct and indirect effects of component skills on writing (DIEW) using data from 193 children in Grade 1. In this model, working memory was hypothesized to be a foundational cognitive ability for language and cognitive skills as well as transcription skills, which, in turn, contribute to writing. Foundational oral language skills…

  17. Schwinger effect and negative differential conductivity in holographic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakrabortty, Shankhadeep, E-mail: shankhadeep.chakrabortty@iiserpune.ac.in [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune 411008 (India); Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Taramani, Chennai 600113 (India); Sathiapalan, B., E-mail: bala@imsc.res.in [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Taramani, Chennai 600113 (India)

    2015-01-15

    The consequences of the Schwinger effect for conductivity are computed for strong coupling systems using holography. The one-loop diagram on the flavor brane introduces an O((λ)/(N{sub c}) ) imaginary part in the effective action for a Maxwell flavor gauge field. This in turn introduces a real conductivity in an otherwise insulating phase of the boundary theory. Moreover, in certain regions of parameter space the differential conductivity is negative. This is computed in the context of the Sakai–Sugimoto model.

  18. Morphing the Shell Model into an Effective Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haxton, W. C.; Song, C.-L.

    2000-01-01

    We describe a strategy for attacking the canonical nuclear structure problem--bound-state properties of a system of point nucleons interacting via a two-body potential--which involves an expansion in the number of particles scattering at high momenta, but is otherwise exact. The required self-consistent solutions of the Bloch-Horowitz equation for effective interactions and operators are obtained by an efficient Green's function method based on the Lanczos algorithm. We carry out this program for the simplest nuclei, d and 3 He , in order to explore the consequences of reformulating the shell model as a controlled effective theory. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

  19. Estimation of the house money effect using hurdle models

    OpenAIRE

    Engel, Christoph; Moffat, Peter G.

    2012-01-01

    Evidence from an experiment investigating the “house money effect” in the context of a public goods game is reconsidered. Analysis is performed within the framework of the panel hurdle model, in which subjects are assumed to be one of two types: free-riders, and potential contributors. The effect of house money is seen to be significant in the first hurdle: specifically, house money makes a subject more likely to be a potential contributor. Hence we find that the effect of house money is more...

  20. Modeling of Atmospheric Turbulence Effect on Terrestrial FSO Link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Prokes

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric turbulence results in many effects causing fluctuation in the received optical power. Terrestrial laser beam communication is affected above all by scintillations. The paper deals with modeling the influence of scintillation on link performance, using the modified Rytov theory. The probability of correct signal detection in direct detection system in dependence on many parameters such as link distance, power link margin, refractive-index structure parameter, etc. is discussed and different approaches to the evaluation of scintillation effect are compared. The simulations are performed for a horizontal-path propagation of the Gaussian-beam wave.