WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling stakeholder decision

  1. An Environmental Decision Support System to Facilitate Stakeholder Interaction with Water Quality Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Saurav

    2012-01-01

    Environmental management has increasingly become a participatory process. In recent times, emphasis has been placed on watershed-based solutions to remediate the problems of diffuse source pollution and to engage stakeholders in designing solutions. Water quality models are an integral part of this process; such models are often inaccessible to lay stakeholders. A review of the literature suggests that properly applied partnerships have several benefits that go beyond decision-making. Stakeho...

  2. Stakeholder engagement in dredged material management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Zachary A; Bates, Matthew E; Wood, Matthew D; Linkov, Igor

    2014-10-15

    Dredging and disposal issues often become controversial with local stakeholders because of their competing interests. These interests tend to manifest themselves in stakeholders holding onto entrenched positions, and deadlock can result without a methodology to move the stakeholder group past the status quo. However, these situations can be represented as multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria decision problems. In this paper, we describe a case study in which multi-criteria decision analysis was implemented in a multi-stakeholder setting in order to generate recommendations on dredged material placement for Long Island Sound's Dredged Material Management Plan. A working-group of representatives from various stakeholder organizations was formed and consulted to help prioritize sediment placement sites for each dredging center in the region by collaboratively building a multi-criteria decision model. The resulting model framed the problem as several alternatives, criteria, sub-criteria, and metrics relevant to stakeholder interests in the Long Island Sound region. An elicitation of values, represented as criteria weights, was then conducted. Results show that in general, stakeholders tended to agree that all criteria were at least somewhat important, and on average there was strong agreement on the order of preferences among the diverse groups of stakeholders. By developing the decision model iteratively with stakeholders as a group and soliciting their preferences, the process sought to increase stakeholder involvement at the front-end of the prioritization process and lead to increased knowledge and consensus regarding the importance of site-specific criteria.

  3. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply....... This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk...

  4. Community DECISIONS: stakeholder focused watershed planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Darrell; Pease, James; Wolfe, Mary Leigh; Zobel, Christopher; Osorio, Javier; Cobb, Tanya Denckla; Evanylo, Greg

    2012-12-15

    Successful watershed planning can be enhanced by stakeholder involvement in developing and implementing plans that reflect community goals and resource limitations. Community DECISIONS (Community Decision Support for Integrated, On-the-ground Nutrient Reduction Strategies) is a structured decision process to help stakeholders evaluate strategies that reduce watershed nutrient imbalances. A nutrient accounting algorithm and nutrient treatment database provide information on nutrient loadings and costs of alternative strategies to reduce loadings. Stakeholders were asked to formulate goals for the North Fork Shenandoah River Watershed in Virginia and select among strategies to achieve those goals. The Vector Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to rank strategies. Stakeholders preferred a Maximum strategy that included point source upgrades, riparian buffers, no-till corn silage, wheat cover, and bioretention filters in developed areas. Participants generally agreed that the process helped improve communication among stakeholders, was helpful for watershed planning, and should be used for TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) planning. Participants suggested more attention be paid to ensuring that all relevant issues are addressed and all information needed to make decisions is available. Watershed planning should provide stakeholders with clear scientific information about physical and socioeconomic processes. However, planning processes must give stakeholders adequate time to consider issues that may not have been addressed by existing scientific models and datasets.

  5. The necessary burden of involving stakeholders in agent-based modelling for education and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommel, P.; Bautista Solís, P.; Leclerc, G.

    2016-12-01

    We implemented a participatory process with water stakeholders for improving resilience to drought at watershed scale, and for reducing water pollution disputes in drought prone Northwestern Costa Rica. The purpose is to facilitate co-management in a rural watershed impacted by recurrent droughts related to ENSO. The process involved designing "ContaMiCuenca", a hybrid agent-based model where users can specify the decisions of their agents. We followed a Companion Modeling approach (www.commod.org) and organized 10 workshops that included research techniques such as participatory diagnostics, actor-resources-interaction and UML diagrams, multi-agents model design, and interactive simulation sessions. We collectively assessed the main water issues in the watershed, prioritized their importance, defined the objectives of the process, and pilot-tested ContaMiCuenca for environmental education with adults and children. Simulation sessions resulted in debates about the need to improve the model accuracy, arguably more relevant for decision-making. This helped identify sensible knowledge gaps in the groundwater pollution and aquifer dynamics that need to be addressed in order to improve our collective learning. Significant mismatches among participants expectations, objectives, and agendas considerably slowed down the participatory process. The main issue may originate in participants expecting technical solutions from a positivist science, as constantly promoted in the region by dole-out initiatives, which is incompatible with the constructivist stance of participatory modellers. This requires much closer interaction of community members with modellers, which may be hard to attain in the current research practice and institutional context. Nevertheless, overcoming these constraints is necessary for a true involvement of water stakeholders to achieve community-based decisions that facilitate integrated water management. Our findings provide significant guidance for

  6. Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siirola, John; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Benz, Zachary O.; Stansbury, Melanie; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Galisteo Consulting); Warrender, Christina E.; Morrow, James Dan

    2012-02-01

    . Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.

  7. An MCDA and GIS coupling conceptual model to be used in a circular decision process by stakeholders involved in large wind farm projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vazquez, M. [Quebec Univ., Rimouski, PQ (Canada). Laboratoire de Recherche en Energie Eolienne; Quebec Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada). GEIGER; Waaub, J.P. [Quebec Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada). GEIGER; Ilinca, A. [Quebec Univ., Rimouski, PQ (Canada). Laboratoire de Recherche en Energie Eolienne

    2010-07-01

    This poster presentation described an MCDA and geographic information system (GIS) coupling conceptual model designed for use in stakeholder decision-making processes for large wind farm projects. The model was comprised of 4 modules and 4 stakeholder categories that considered the environment and communities involved in the project. The integrated modelling approach was designed to ensure a transparent decision-making process. The modules included: (1) an MCDA module, (2) a local expertise and scientific knowledge module, (3) a stakeholder involvement module, and (4) a participatory GIS module. The model can be used to structure issues during consultation procedures, as well as to conduct preference analyses and to identify indicators. Examples of stakeholder weighting were included. tabs., figs.

  8. Modelling with stakeholders - Next generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voinov, Alexey; Kolagani, Nagesh; McCall, Michael K; Glynn, Pierre D.; Kragt, Marit E; Ostermann, Frank O; Pierce, Suzanne A; Ramu, Palaniappan

    2016-01-01

    This paper updates and builds on ‘Modelling with Stakeholders’ Voinov and Bousquet, 2010 which demonstrated the importance of, and demand for, stakeholder participation in resource and environmental modelling. This position paper returns to the concepts of that publication and reviews the progress made since 2010. A new development is the wide introduction and acceptance of social media and web applications, which dramatically changes the context and scale of stakeholder interactions and participation. Technology advances make it easier to incorporate information in interactive formats via visualization and games to augment participatory experiences. Citizens as stakeholders are increasingly demanding to be engaged in planning decisions that affect them and their communities, at scales from local to global. How people interact with and access models and data is rapidly evolving. In turn, this requires changes in how models are built, packaged, and disseminated: citizens are less in awe of experts and external authorities, and they are increasingly aware of their own capabilities to provide inputs to planning processes, including models. The continued acceleration of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion accompanies these societal changes, even as there is a growing acceptance of the need to transition to alternative, possibly very different, life styles. Substantive transitions cannot occur without significant changes in human behaviour and perceptions. The important and diverse roles that models can play in guiding human behaviour, and in disseminating and increasing societal knowledge, are a feature of stakeholder processes today.

  9. Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2015-12-01

    While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

  10. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: From cognitive maps to agent-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation mode

  11. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: From cognitive maps to agent-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    El-Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation

  12. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  13. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

    2015-03-15

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model.

  14. A Dynamic Model for Political Stakeholders: Forecasting the Actions and Relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah With Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    other Lebanese citizens, in general. Rational Choice Theory : A stakeholder reasons before taking any action to meet specific interests while...players. 13 Rational play is fundamental to understanding how stakeholders reason before taking action. This is called Rational Choice Theory (RCT

  15. CSR Model Implementation from School Stakeholder Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Suzannah

    2006-01-01

    Despite comprehensive school reform (CSR) model developers' best intentions to make school stakeholders adhere strictly to the implementation of model components, school stakeholders implementing CSR models inevitably make adaptations to the CSR model. Adaptations are made to CSR models because school stakeholders internalize CSR model practices…

  16. The prioritisation of invasive alien plant control projects using a multi-criteria decision model informed by stakeholder input and spatial data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsyth, G G; Le Maitre, D C; O'Farrell, P J; van Wilgen, B W

    2012-07-30

    Invasions by alien plants are a significant threat to the biodiversity and functioning of ecosystems and the services they provide. The South African Working for Water program was established to address this problem. It needs to formulate objective and transparent priorities for clearing in the face of multiple and sometimes conflicting demands. This study used the analytic hierarchy process (a multi-criteria decision support technique) to develop and rank criteria for prioritising alien plant control operations in the Western Cape, South Africa. Stakeholder workshops were held to identify a goal and criteria and to conduct pair-wise comparisons to weight the criteria with respect to invasive alien plant control. The combination of stakeholder input (to develop decision models) with data-driven model solutions enabled us to include many alternatives (water catchments), that would otherwise not have been feasible. The most important criteria included the capacity to maintain gains made through control operations, the potential to enhance water resources and conserve biodiversity, and threats from priority invasive alien plant species. We selected spatial datasets and used them to generate weights that could be used to objectively compare alternatives with respect to agreed criteria. The analysis showed that there are many high priority catchments which are not receiving any funding and low priority catchments which are receiving substantial allocations. Clearly, there is a need for realigning priorities, including directing sufficient funds to the highest priority catchments to provide effective control. This approach provided a tractable, consensus-based solution that can be used to direct clearing operations.

  17. Smart Mobility Stakeholders - Curating Urban Data & Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperling, Joshua [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the curation of urban data and models through engaging SMART mobility stakeholders. SMART Mobility Urban Science Efforts are helping to expose key data sets, models, and roles for the U.S. Department of Energy in engaging across stakeholders to ensure useful insights. This will help to support other Urban Science and broader SMART initiatives.

  18. COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ABOUT BUSINESS MODELS: STAKEHOLDERS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojoagă Alexandru

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations inform stakeholders about their current and future activities, processes, created value, strategic intentions, and other information that may influence the established relationships. Organizations choose to communicate with stakeholders by different means and in varied ways. The annual report represents a way of communicating between companies and their stakeholders, and it is offering comprehensive information about how companies operates and creates value. The business model is an emerging concept in management literature and practice. The concept describes the logic by which a organization creates, maintains and delivers value for its stakeholders. Through annual reports organisations can communicate to stakeholders information about their business models.We investigated how information about business models is explicitly communicated through annual reports, and how this information is reffering to stakeholders. Our paper aims to reveal which stakeholders are more often mentioned when organizations are communicating about business models through annual reports. This approach shows the attention degree given by organizations to stakeholders. We perceived this from a strategic point of view, as a strategic signal. Thus, we considered if the stakeholder is mentioned more frequent in the communicated message it has a greater role in communication strategy about business model. We conducted an exploratory research and have realized a content analysis.The analysed data consist in over a thousand annual reports from 96 organizations. We analysed the informations transmitted by organizations through annual reports. The annual reports were for a time period of 12 years. Most of the selected companies are multi-business, and are operating in different industries. The results show the stakeholder’s hierarchy based on how often they were mentioned in the communicated messages about business models through annual reports. Based on our

  19. Finding shared decisions in stakeholder networks: An agent-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pira, Michela; Inturri, Giuseppe; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

  20. Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration stakeholder involvement model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupanger, R.M.; Kostelnik, K.M.; Milam, L.M.

    1994-04-01

    The Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration (BWID) is a program funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development. BWID supports the applied research, development, demonstration, and evaluation of a suite of advanced technologies that together form a comprehensive remediation system for the effective and efficient remediation of buried waste. Stakeholder participation in the DOE Environmental Management decision-making process is critical to remediation efforts. Appropriate mechanisms for communication with the public, private sector, regulators, elected officials, and others are being aggressively pursued by BWID to permit informed participation. This document summarizes public outreach efforts during FY-93 and presents a strategy for expanded stakeholder involvement during FY-94.

  1. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  2. DO STAKEHOLDERS MATTER IN STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING OF A SPORTS ORGANIZATION?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Alexandra Marques Miragaia

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify and prioritize the stakeholders involved in making decisions in a sports organization. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the influence of the attributes of power, legitimacy and urgency on the salience of the various stakeholders. The results showed a convergence of external and internal decision makers’ perceptions, concerning the three main stakeholder groups: top management, sponsors and member association. Pearson correlations identified four types of stakeholder: definitive, dangerous, demanding and non-stakeholders. A generalized differentiation was also found in stakeholder classification, regarding evaluation of attributes, between external and internal decision makers. In addition, the study suggests the success of organizations’ management will depend on correct identification of stakeholders and consequent assessment of their relevance, in order to highlight who should get priority, and how, in strategic decision making.

  3. Ethical theory and stakeholder-related decisions: The role of stakeholder culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.M. Jones; W.A. Felps (William); G. Bigley

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe use convergent elements of major ethical theories to create a typology of corporate stakeholder cultures—the aspects of organizational culture consisting of the beliefs, values, and practices that have evolved for solving problems and otherwise managing stakeholder relationships. We d

  4. Involving stakeholders in transport decision making using planning workshops and MCDA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Pryn, Marie Ridley

    Developments regarding decision making in the transport sector has revealed an increasing need for involving stakeholders in the decision support process in order to capture all aspects of the often complex decision problems. This paper proposes the use of planning workshops and multi-criteria de......Developments regarding decision making in the transport sector has revealed an increasing need for involving stakeholders in the decision support process in order to capture all aspects of the often complex decision problems. This paper proposes the use of planning workshops and multi......-criteria decision analysis to gather stakeholders and decision makers with the purpose of improving the final decision making by including a collaborative planning approach. An outline is made for how the planning workshop can be used for real decision support at different organizational levels in the process....

  5. Stakeholder approach, Stakeholders mental model: A visualization test with cognitive mapping technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garoui Nassreddine

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The idea of this paper is to determine the mental models of actors in the firm with respect to the stakeholder approach of corporate governance. The use of the cognitive map to view these diagrams to show the ways of thinking and conceptualization of the stakeholder approach. The paper takes a corporate governance perspective, discusses stakeholder model. It takes also a cognitive mapping technique.

  6. An integrated decision making approach for assessing healthcare waste treatment technologies from a multiple stakeholder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hua; Liu, Hu-Chen; Li, Ping; Xu, Xue-Guo

    2017-01-01

    With increased worldwide awareness of environmental issues, healthcare waste (HCW) management has received much attention from both researchers and practitioners over the past decade. The task of selecting the optimum treatment technology for HCWs is a challenging decision making problem involving conflicting evaluation criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this paper, we develop an integrated decision making framework based on cloud model and MABAC method for evaluating and selecting the best HCW treatment technology from a multiple stakeholder perspective. The introduced framework deals with uncertain linguistic assessments of alternatives by using interval 2-tuple linguistic variables, determines decision makers' relative weights based on the uncertainty and divergence degrees of every decision maker, and obtains the ranking of all HCW disposal alternatives with the aid of an extended MABAC method. Finally, an empirical example from Shanghai, China, is provided to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Results indicate that the methodology being proposed is more suitable and effective to handle the HCW treatment technology selection problem under vague and uncertain information environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Information technology and decision support tools for stakeholder-driven river basin salinity management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, N.W.T; Cozad, D.B.; Lee, G.

    2010-01-01

    Innovative strategies for effective basin-scale salinity management have been developed in the Hunter River Basin of Australia and more recently in the San Joaquin River Basin of California. In both instances web-based stakeholder information dissemination has been a key to achieving a high level of stakeholder involvement and the formulation of effective decision support salinity management tools. A common element to implementation of salinity management strategies in both river basins has been the concept of river assimilative capacity for controlling export salt loading and the potential for trading of the right to discharge salt load to the river - the Hunter River in Australia and the San Joaquin River in California. Both rivers provide basin drainage and the means of exporting salt to the ocean. The paper compares and contrasts the use of monitoring, modeling and information dissemination in the two basins to achieve environmental compliance and sustain irrigated agriculture in an equitable and socially and politically acceptable manner.

  8. A Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision-Making and Conflict Resolution (abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This contribution describes the implementation of the conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) metric to create a general multi-stakeholder decision-making framework. It is observed that stakeholder dissatisfactions (distance to their individual ideal solutions) can be interpreted as ran...

  9. A framework for multi-stakeholder decision-making and conflict resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    We propose a decision-making framework to compute compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives. In our setting, we shape the stakeholder dis-satisfaction distribution by solving a conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) minimiz...

  10. Avoiding the "Condorcet paradox" in stakeholder networks for participatory decision-making: an agent-based approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pira, Michela Le; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions, related to the "Condorcet paradox". An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in avoiding the paradox and finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

  11. A Decision Support Framework For Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...

  12. A Decision Support Framework For Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...

  13. Respecting Stakeholders and Their Engagement to Decision Making - The Way of Successful Corporate Social Responsibility Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drieniková, Katarína; Sakál, Peter

    2012-12-01

    Current world situation characterized by constant dynamic development and changes in all spheres enforced us to view the business not only as a profit creator but as creator of added value to the society. The paper deals with the stakeholders as the integral part of corporate social responsibility (CSR) concept. It mentions the topic of stakeholder theory and stakeholder management in consideration of sustainable development and sustainable competitiveness of business. Within the paper are mentioned outputs of pilot research carried on among Slovak companies focusing on stakeholders and decision making within responsible business.

  14. Uncertainty in Driftless Area Cold-Water Fishery Decision Making and a Framework for Stakeholder-Based Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The paradigm of stakeholder-based science is becoming more popular as organizations such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers adopt it as a way of providing practicable climate change information to practitioners. One of the key issues stakeholders face in adopting climate change information into their decision processes is how uncertainty is addressed and communicated. In this study, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with managers and scientists working on stream habitat restoration of cold-water fisheries in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin that were focused on how they interpret and manage uncertainty and what types of information they need to make better decisions. One of the important lessons we learned from the interviews is that if researchers are going to provide useful climate change information to stakeholders, they need to understand where and how decisions are made and what adaptation measures are actually available in a given decision arena. This method of incorporating social science methods into climate science production can provide a framework for researchers from the Climate Science Centers and others who are interested in pursuing stakeholder-based science. By indentifying a specific ecological system and conducting interviews with actors who work on that system, researchers will be able to gain a better understanding of how their climate change science can fit into existing or shape new decision processes. We also interpreted lessons learned from our interviews via existing literature in areas such as stakeholder-based modeling and the decision sciences to provide guidance specific to the stakeholder-based science process.

  15. The prioritisation of invasive alien plant control projects using a multi-criteria decision model informed by stakeholder input and spatial data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Forsyth, GG

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available and transparent priorities for clearing in the face of multiple and sometimes conflicting demands. This study used the analytic hierarchy process (a multi-criteria decision support technique) to develop and rank criteria for prioritising alien plant control...

  16. Who are the stakeholders in environmental risk decisions? - How should they be involved?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    English, M.R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1999-12-01

    As we move toward diffuse, long-term environmental risks - especially those with large uncertainties and potentially grave consequences, such as those typified by high-level radioactive waste disposal - we need to move away from a stakeholder-centered model of environmental decision making. Instead, we need to move toward a model that draws upon the concept of collaborative learning, and emphasizes the long-term common good. Collaborative learning (which also has been referred to as adaptive work or transformative facilitation is especially appropriate when values are diverse and the dimensions of the problem and its possible solutions are not well-understood. Emphasis on the long-term common good calls upon people to think of themselves, not simply as self-interested stakeholders, but also as trustees for the well-being of other people and the environment. Together, the two concepts suggest a process that should challenge prevailing knowledge and values without being adversarial, that should have as a goal a sustainable future for all, and that should be deliberative and iterative. Incremental steps, revisited as needed, should be preferred over 'final solutions'. This ideal is far easier to prescribe than to implement. For example, political communication increasingly is dominated by specialists whose techniques historically are rooted in advertising, market research, and public relations, with the result that trust is diminished and ties between citizens and their leaders are weakened. Nevertheless, there is still reason to believe that it is possible to pursue models of decision making on critical issues of environmental risk that rely neither on stakeholder negotiations nor on manipulative persuasion.

  17. E-health stakeholders experiences with clinical modelling and standardizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gøeg, Kirstine Rosenbeck; Elberg, Pia Britt; Højen, Anne Randorff

    2015-01-01

    Stakeholders in e-health such as governance officials, health IT-implementers and vendors have to co-operate to achieve the goal of a future-proof interoperable e-health infrastructure. Co-operation requires knowledge on the responsibility and competences of stakeholder groups. To increase awareness on clinical modeling and standardization we conducted a workshop for Danish and a few Norwegian e-health stakeholders' and made them discuss their views on different aspects of clinical modeling using a theoretical model as a point of departure. Based on the model, we traced stakeholders' experiences. Our results showed there was a tendency that stakeholders were more familiar with e-health requirements than with design methods, clinical information models and clinical terminology as they are described in the scientific literature. The workshop made it possible for stakeholders to discuss their roles and expectations to each other.

  18. What is a good medical decision? A research agenda guided by perspectives from multiple stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jada G; Lillie, Sarah E; Alden, Dana L; Scherer, Laura; Oser, Megan; Rini, Christine; Tanaka, Miho; Baleix, John; Brewster, Mikki; Craddock Lee, Simon; Goldstein, Mary K; Jacobson, Robert M; Myers, Ronald E; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Waters, Erika A

    2017-02-01

    Informed and shared decision making are critical aspects of patient-centered care, which has contributed to an emphasis on decision support interventions to promote good medical decision making. However, researchers and healthcare providers have not reached a consensus on what defines a good decision, nor how to evaluate it. This position paper, informed by conference sessions featuring diverse stakeholders held at the 2015 Society of Behavioral Medicine and Society for Medical Decision Making annual meetings, describes key concepts that influence the decision making process itself and that may change what it means to make a good decision: interpersonal factors, structural constraints, affective influences, and values clarification methods. This paper also proposes specific research questions within each of these priority areas, with the goal of moving medical decision making research to a more comprehensive definition of a good medical decision, and enhancing the ability to measure and improve the decision making process.

  19. Stakeholder management in the local government decision-making area: evidences from a triangulation study with the English local government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Corrêa Gomes

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The stakeholder theory has been in the management agenda for about thirty years and reservations about its acceptance as a comprehensive theory still remains. It was introduced as a managerial issue by the Labour Party in 1997 aiming to make public management more inclusive. This article aims to contribute to the stakeholder theory adding descriptive issues to its theoretical basis. The findings are derived from an inductive investigationcarried out with English Local Authorities, which will most likely be reproduced in other contexts. Data collection and analysis is based on a data triangulation method that involves case-studies, interviews of validation and analysis of documents. The investigation proposes a model for representing the nature of therelationships between stakeholders and the decision-making process of such organizations. The decision-making of local government organizations is in fact a stakeholder-based process in which stakeholders are empowered to exert influences due to power over and interest in the organization’s operations and outcomes.

  20. Scientific decision-making and stakeholder consultations: the case of salt recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timotijevic, Lada; Barnett, Julie; Brown, Kerry; Raats, Monique M; Shepherd, Richard

    2013-05-01

    Scientific advisory committees (SACs) are seen as "boundary organisations" working at the interface between science, policy and society. Although their narrowly defined remit of risk assessment is anchored in notions of rationality, objectivity, and reason, in reality, their sources for developing recommendations are not limited to scientific evidence. There is a growing expectation to involve non-scientific sources of information in the formation of knowledge, including the expectation of stakeholder consultation in forming recommendations. Such a move towards "democratisation" of scientific processes of decision-making within SACs has been described and often studied as "post-normal science" (PNS) (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993). In the current paper we examine the application of PNS in practice through a study of stakeholder consultations within the workings of the UK Scientific Advisory Committee for Nutrition (SACN). We use the theoretical insights from PNS-related studies to structure the analysis and examine the way in which PNS tenets resonate with the practices of SACN. We have selected a particular case of the SACN UK recommendations for salt as it is characterized by scientific controversy, uncertainty, vested interests and value conflict. We apply the tenets of PNS through documentary analysis of the SACN Salt Subgroup (SSG) consultation documents published in 2002/2003: the minutes of the 5 SACN SSG's meetings which included summary of the SACN SSG's stakeholder consultation and the SSG's responses to the consultation. The analysis suggests that the SACN consultation can be construed as a process of managing sources of risk to its organisation. Thus, rather than being an evidence of post-normal scientific practice, engagement became a mechanism for confirming the specific framing of science that is resonant with technocratic models of science holding authority over the facts. The implications for PNS theory are discussed.

  1. Stakeholder Theory and Value Creation Models in Brazilian Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Giugni Vidal

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The purpose of this study is to understand how top Brazilian firms think about and communicate value creation to their stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach – We use qualitative content analysis methodology to analyze the sustainability or annual integrated reports of the top 25 Brazilian firms by sales revenue. Findings – Based on our analysis, these firms were classified into three main types of stakeholder value creation models: narrow, broad, or transitioning from narrow to broad. We find that many of the firms in our sample are in a transition state between narrow and broad stakeholder value creation models. We also identify seven areas of concentration discussed by firms in creating value for stakeholders: better stakeholder relationships, better work environment, environmental preservation, increased customer base, local development, reputation, and stakeholder dialogue. Practical implications – This study shows a trend towards broader stakeholder value creation models in Brazilian firms. The findings of this study may inform practitioners interested in broadening their value creation models. Originality/value – This study adds to the discussion of stakeholder theory in the Brazilian context by understanding variations in value creation orientation in Brazil.

  2. Modeling Stakeholder/Value Dependency through Mean Failure Cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aissa, Anis Ben [University of Tunis, Belvedere, Tunisia; Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL; Mili, Ali [New Jersey Insitute of Technology

    2010-01-01

    In an earlier series of works, Boehm et al. discuss the nature of information system dependability and highlight the variability of system dependability according to stakeholders. In a recent paper, the dependency patterns of this model are analyzed. In our recent works, we presented a stakeholder dependent quantitative security model, where we quantify security for a given stakeholder by the mean of the loss incurred by the stakeholder as a result of security threats. We show how this mean can be derived from the security threat configuration (represented as a vector of probabilities that reflect the likelihood of occurrence of the various security threats). We refer to our security metric as MFC, for Mean Failure Cost. In this paper, we analyze Boehm's model from the standpoint of the proposed metric, and show whether, to what extent, and how our metric addresses the issues raised by Boehm's Stakeholder/Value definition of system dependability.

  3. Incorporating stakeholder values into environmental decision making and management in the Athabasca Oil Sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuschminder, J. [C. E. Jones and Associates Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2004-09-30

    Ways to incorporate stakeholder values into the environmental decision making process are discussed, with particular emphasis on the several multi-stakeholder consensus-driven associations established for this purpose in the Athabasca Oil Sands region. These associations were tasked to formulate recommendations for regulators regarding regional environmental and social issues. Occasionally, an alternative mechanism, primarily negotiated settlements, were used to settle socio-economic and environmental concerns specific to a particular group or region. It is worthy of note that in the Athabasca Region there are 46 identified environmentally concerned stakeholders from industry, government, aboriginal communities, and non-governmental organizations. The framework set up to handle issues provides each of these stakeholder group access to industry directly, either through one-on-one meetings or through the various multi-stakeholder associations which have been created to deal with social impacts. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) stands out as one of the first multi-stakeholder organizations created to deal with cumulative environmental effects and long-term impacts for the region. It makes recommendations to the Alberta Environment Department's Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS) that is accountable for managing the region's cumulative environmental effects. The existence of these associations allows for the discussion of reasonable alternatives, and provides a forum to find common ground to examine all available options, thus reducing the potential for conflicts.

  4. A practical approach to communicating benefit-risk decisions of medicines to stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James eLeong

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available AbstractPurposeThe importance of a framework for a systematic structured assessment of the benefits and risks has been established, but in addition, it is necessary that the benefit-risk decisions and the processes to derive those decisions are documented and communicated to various stakeholders for accountability. Hence there is now a need to find appropriate tools to enhance communication in a manner that would uphold transparency, consistency and standards. MethodsA retrospective, non-comparative study was conducted to determine the applicability and practicality of a summary template in documenting benefit-risk assessment and communicating benefit-risk balance and conclusions for reviewers to other stakeholders. The benefit-risk (BR Summary Template and its User Manual was evaluated by 12 reviewers within a regulatory agency in Singapore, the Health Sciences Authority (HSA. ResultsThe BR Summary Template was found to be adequate in documenting benefits, risks, relevant summaries and conclusions, while the User Manual was useful in guiding the reviewer in completing the template. The BR Summary Template was also considered a useful tool for communicating benefit-risk decisions to a variety of stakeholders.ConclusionsThe use of a template may be of value for the communicating benefit-risk assessment of medicines to stakeholders.

  5. Stakeholder Engagement in the Development and Application of a Regional Earth Systems Model: Analysis of Researchers' Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E. R.; Stephens, J. C.; Kruger, C.; Leung, F. T.

    2011-12-01

    Engaging stakeholders in the development of regional earth systems models has potential to improve model accuracy and enhance model relevance for decision makers. BioEarth is one earth systems modeling project currently under development aimed at investigating how climate and human-induced changes impact environmental nitrogen and carbon cycling. One proposed application of this model is to predict impacts on natural resource management in the Pacific Northwest to inform decision-making by stakeholders in the forestry and agriculture sectors. Integrating input from natural resource managers and other stakeholders into the model development process, therefore, is critical. However, many model developers have limited experience in engaging stakeholders throughout model development processes. Understanding researchers' perceptions of the potential value and challenges of stakeholder engagement in model development at the early phase of the project provides general insights related to science communication as well as project-specific insights. For BioEarth, findings about project scientists' perspectives may inform the design of information exchange mechanisms between researchers and stakeholders. To assess researchers' perceptions of the relevance of the model to decision-making and understand researchers' previous experiences, expectations and concerns regarding stakeholder input and interaction we conducted a semi-formal interview and a quantitative questionnaire with each of the project's 18 principal investigators. Interview transcripts were coded and interpreted following a thematic content analysis approach. We expect to find a range of perceptions among BioEarth researchers regarding the kind of involvement and degree of influence that stakeholders may have in the model development process. We also expect a range of attitudes and approaches toward participatory research processes. In addition to improving the effectiveness of stakeholder engagement in the

  6. A Decision Support Framework for Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehr, Amanda P.; Small, Mitchell J.; Bradley, Patricia; Fisher, William S.; Vega, Ann; Black, Kelly; Stockton, Tom

    2012-12-01

    We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environmental stressors, processes, and outcomes; and a Decision Landscape analysis to depict the legal, social, and institutional dimensions of environmental decisions. The Decision Landscape incorporates interactions among government agencies, regulated businesses, non-government organizations, and other stakeholders. It also identifies where scientific information regarding environmental processes is collected and transmitted to improve knowledge about elements of the DPSIR and to improve the scientific basis for decisions. Our application of the decision support framework to coral reef protection and restoration in the Florida Keys focusing on anthropogenic stressors, such as wastewater, proved to be successful and offered several insights. Using information from a management plan, it was possible to capture the current state of the science with a DPSIR analysis as well as important decision options, decision makers and applicable laws with a the Decision Landscape analysis. A structured elicitation of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef management workshop held in Key West, Florida provided a diversity of opinion and also indicated a prioritization of several environmental stressors affecting coral reef health. The integrated DPSIR/Decision landscape framework for the Florida Keys developed based on the elicited opinion and the DPSIR analysis can be used to inform management decisions, to reveal the role that further scientific information and research might play to populate the framework, and to facilitate better-informed agreement among participants.

  7. Accounting for Business Models: Increasing the Visibility of Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Haslam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper conceptualises a firm’s business model employing stakeholder theory as a central organising element to help inform the purpose and objective(s of business model financial reporting and disclosure. Framework: Firms interact with a complex network of primary and secondary stakeholders to secure the value proposition of a firm’s business model. This value proposition is itself a complex amalgam of value creating, value capturing and value manipulating arrangements with stakeholders. From a financial accounting perspective the purpose of the value proposition for a firm’s business model is to sustain liquidity and solvency as a going concern. Findings: This article argues that stakeholder relations impact upon the financial viability of a firm’s business model value proposition. However current financial reporting by function of expenses and the central organising objectives of the accounting conceptual framework conceal firm-stakeholder relations and their impact on reported financials. Practical implications: The practical implication of our paper is that ‘Business Model’ financial reporting would require a reorientation in the accounting conceptual framework that defines the objectives and purpose of financial reporting. This reorientation would involve reporting about stakeholder relations and their impact on a firms financials not simply reporting financial information to ‘investors’. Social Implications: Business model financial reporting has the potential to be stakeholder inclusive because the numbers and narratives reported by firms in their annual financial statements will increase the visibility of stakeholder relations and how these are being managed. What is original/value of paper: This paper’s original perspective is that it argues that a firm’s business model is structured out of stakeholder relations. It presents the firm’s value proposition as the product of value creating, capturing and

  8. Stakeholders' perceptions of ways to support decisions about health insurance marketplace enrollment: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housten, A J; Furtado, K; Kaphingst, K A; Kebodeaux, C; McBride, T; Cusanno, B; Politi, M C

    2016-11-08

    Approximately 29 million individuals are expected to enroll in health insurance using the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace by 2022. Those seeking health insurance struggle to understand insurance options and choose a plan that best suits their needs. We interviewed stakeholders to identify the challenges associated with the ACA Marketplace health insurance enrollment and elicited feedback about what to include in health insurance decision support tools. Interviews were transcribed and themes were identified using inductive thematic analysis. Stakeholders stated that consumers felt frustrated by unclear terminology, high plan costs, and complex calculations required to assess costs. Consumers felt anxious about making the wrong choice and being unable to change plans within a calendar year. Stakeholders recommended using plain language tables defining complex terms, grouping information, and using engaging graphics to communicate information about health insurance. Stakeholders thought that narratives of how others made decisions about insurance might be helpful to consumers, but recommended that they be tailored to the needs of specific consumers. Strategies that clarify health insurance terms using plain language and graphics, acknowledge concern associated with making the wrong choice, calculate and enable cost comparison, and tailor information to consumers' unique needs could benefit those enrolling in ACA Marketplace plans, Narratives developed should be simple and inclusive enough for diverse populations.

  9. Healthcare management and the decision-making process perspective: could a normative framework from stakeholder theory help?

    OpenAIRE

    Buthion, Valérie

    2011-01-01

    Healthcare appears to be a world of Evidence-Based Medicine and rational decisions. Seldom available, sufficient or relevant in view of human needs, scientific evidence do not address priorities when resources are more than ever globally insufficient to an increasingly voracious system. Literature shows than evidence are not sufficient while a wide range of "stakeholders" vie to influence the decision-making process. We will be discussing the part "stakeholders" play in the decision-making pr...

  10. Introducing CARL - Studying Stakeholder Involvement in Decision-Making on RWM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergmans, Anne [Univ. of Antwerp (Belgium)

    2006-09-15

    This paper provides some background on the four following papers, drawing on the research conducted within the CARL research project. CARL is a cross-national 'social sciences research project into the effects of stakeholder involvement on decision-making in radioactive waste management'. The paper introduces the project, its aims, activities and describes the common framework used to look at each individual country.

  11. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... identification to the possible decision making. The process makes use of a preliminary problem structuring phase, and an intervention phase featuring the concept of a decision conference where decision-makers and multiple stakeholders have the possibility of interacting with the decision support model...

  12. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  13. From Perceived Values to Shared Values: A Multi-Stakeholder Spatial Decision Analysis (M-SSDA for Resilient Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cerreta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forth a Multi-Stakeholder Spatial Decision Analysis (M-SSDA which combines Multi-Stakeholders Decision Analysis (M-SDA and GIS processing based on a collaborative, hybrid and adaptive evaluative approach to support the elaboration of enhancement strategies designed for resilient landscapes. This methodology has been tested in the research project “Cilento Labscape: An integrated model for the activation of a Living Lab in the National Park of Cilento, Vallo di Diano and Alburni”, which was conducted in the Cilento National Park (Southern Italy. The aim of the methodology is to find alternative touristic routes for the promotion of the Park. The different steps in the process will be described, as will the employment of multiple tools/techniques (interviews, GIS tools, Semantic Analysis, and Geo-Statistical Analysis to improve the reliability of the decision-making process. The most relevant results of the methodology will also be outlined in terms of the transition from the identification of the perceived landscape’s values to the acknowledgement of the shared values, and their consequent employment for the outlining of new thematic itineraries for the Park. To realise sustainable territorial strategies and preserve the landscape through bottom-up decision-making processes, the different local communities need to gain a new awareness of their identity shared values and make an active contribution towards promoting and managing their site-specific resources.

  14. A multivariate model of stakeholder preference for lethal cat management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, Dara M; Jacobson, Susan K

    2014-01-01

    Identifying stakeholder beliefs and attitudes is critical for resolving management conflicts. Debate over outdoor cat management is often described as a conflict between two groups, environmental advocates and animal welfare advocates, but little is known about the variables predicting differences among these critical stakeholder groups. We administered a mail survey to randomly selected stakeholders representing both of these groups (n=1,596) in Florida, where contention over the management of outdoor cats has been widespread. We used a structural equation model to evaluate stakeholder intention to support non-lethal management. The cognitive hierarchy model predicted that values influenced beliefs, which predicted general and specific attitudes, which in turn, influenced behavioral intentions. We posited that specific attitudes would mediate the effect of general attitudes, beliefs, and values on management support. Model fit statistics suggested that the final model fit the data well (CFI=0.94, RMSEA=0.062). The final model explained 74% of the variance in management support, and positive attitudes toward lethal management (humaneness) had the largest direct effect on management support. Specific attitudes toward lethal management and general attitudes toward outdoor cats mediated the relationship between positive (pstakeholder intention to support non-lethal cat management. Our findings suggest that stakeholders can simultaneously perceive both positive and negative beliefs about outdoor cats, which influence attitudes toward and support for non-lethal management.

  15. Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

    2017-04-01

    Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model

  16. Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.

  17. Involving Stakeholders in Building Integrated Fisheries Models Using Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.

  18. The role of symbolic capital in stakeholder disputes: decision-making concerning intractable wastes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benn, Suzanne; Jones, Richard

    2009-04-01

    This paper examines almost 30 years of disputation concerning the disposal of the world's largest stockpile of the toxic organochlorine, hexachlorbenzene. It describes the study of a chemicals company in its attempt to manage the disposal of the toxic waste in a collaborative fashion with government, environmentalists and the local community. The study describes the new processes and structures specifically designed to address the decision-making and the issues of stakeholder perception and identity construction which have influenced the outcomes. Decision-making in such disputes is often theorized from the perspective of the emergence of highly individualized and reflexive risk communities and changing modes and expectations of corporate responsibility as a result of detraditionalization. We argue that the stakeholder interaction in this study reflects competing discourses in which corporate actors prioritize the building and maintaining of identity and symbolic capital rather than an active collaboration to solve the ongoing issue of the waste. As well, issues of access to expert knowledge highlight the relationship between conditions of uncertainty, technoscientific expertise and identity. The events of the study highlight the challenges faced by contemporary technoscientific corporations such as chemicals companies as they must deliver on requirements of transparency and openness, while maintaining technoscientific capacity and strong internal identity. We conclude that the study demonstrates the co-existence of social processes of individualization and detraditionalization with quasi-traditions which maintain authority, thus challenging the radical distinctions made in the literature between modernity and late or reflexive modernity.

  19. Information management to enable personalized medicine: stakeholder roles in building clinical decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brinner Kristin M

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in technology and the scientific understanding of disease processes are presenting new opportunities to improve health through individualized approaches to patient management referred to as personalized medicine. Future health care strategies that deploy genomic technologies and molecular therapies will bring opportunities to prevent, predict, and pre-empt disease processes but will be dependent on knowledge management capabilities for health care providers that are not currently available. A key cornerstone to the potential application of this knowledge will be effective use of electronic health records. In particular, appropriate clinical use of genomic test results and molecularly-targeted therapies present important challenges in patient management that can be effectively addressed using electronic clinical decision support technologies. Discussion Approaches to shaping future health information needs for personalized medicine were undertaken by a work group of the American Health Information Community. A needs assessment for clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to support personalized medical practices was conducted to guide health future development activities. Further, a suggested action plan was developed for government, researchers and research institutions, developers of electronic information tools (including clinical guidelines, and quality measures, and standards development organizations to meet the needs for personalized approaches to medical practice. In this article, we focus these activities on stakeholder organizations as an operational framework to help identify and coordinate needs and opportunities for clinical decision support tools to enable personalized medicine. Summary This perspective addresses conceptual approaches that can be undertaken to develop and apply clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to achieve personalized medical care. In

  20. A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

    2013-11-15

    Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second

  1. Multiple stakeholders in multi-criteria decision-making in the context of Municipal Solid Waste Management: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soltani, Atousa; Hewage, Kasun; Reza, Bahareh; Sadiq, Rehan, E-mail: Rehan.sadiq@ubc.ca

    2015-01-15

    Highlights: • We review Municipal Solid Waste Management studies with focus on multiple stakeholders. • We focus on studies with multi-criteria decision analysis methods and discover their trends. • Most studies do not offer solutions for situations where stakeholders compete for more benefits or have unequal voting powers. • Governments and experts are the most participated stakeholders and AHP is the most dominant method. - Abstract: Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is a complicated process that involves multiple environmental and socio-economic criteria. Decision-makers look for decision support frameworks that can guide in defining alternatives, relevant criteria and their weights, and finding a suitable solution. In addition, decision-making in MSWM problems such as finding proper waste treatment locations or strategies often requires multiple stakeholders such as government, municipalities, industries, experts, and/or general public to get involved. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the most popular framework employed in previous studies on MSWM; MCDA methods help multiple stakeholders evaluate the often conflicting criteria, communicate their different preferences, and rank or prioritize MSWM strategies to finally agree on some elements of these strategies and make an applicable decision. This paper reviews and brings together research on the application of MCDA for solving MSWM problems with more focus on the studies that have considered multiple stakeholders and offers solutions for such problems. Results of this study show that AHP is the most common approach in consideration of multiple stakeholders and experts and governments/municipalities are the most common participants in these studies.

  2. Using communication research to gather stakeholder preferences to improve groundwater management models: a South Texas case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkatesh Uddamer

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available There is a compelling need to ensure that the points of view and preferences of stakeholders are fully considered and incorporated into natural resources management strategies. Stakeholders include a diverse group of individuals in several sectors that have an interest in how natural resources are managed. Typically, stakeholders with an interest in groundwater resources include groups who could be affected by the manner in which the resource is managed (e.g., farmers who need water for irrigation; municipalities and individuals who need drinking water, agencies and organizations that want to maintain in-stream flows to support ecosystems, etc. Refugio County in South Texas provides an interesting case study since several groups of water users in the region are working with researchers at Texas A&M University-Kingsville (TAMUK to develop decision-support models that incorporate stakeholder concerns.The focus of this paper is to provide a series of arguments and approaches about the ways in which stakeholder issues have recently been incorporated into environmental models, to briefly describe some of the TAMUK efforts to develop groundwater models that incorporate stakeholder inputs, and to present and discuss a method in which communication research can be used to obtain stakeholder preferences input into modeling efforts.

  3. Multiple stakeholders in multi-criteria decision-making in the context of Municipal Solid Waste Management: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, Atousa; Hewage, Kasun; Reza, Bahareh; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is a complicated process that involves multiple environmental and socio-economic criteria. Decision-makers look for decision support frameworks that can guide in defining alternatives, relevant criteria and their weights, and finding a suitable solution. In addition, decision-making in MSWM problems such as finding proper waste treatment locations or strategies often requires multiple stakeholders such as government, municipalities, industries, experts, and/or general public to get involved. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the most popular framework employed in previous studies on MSWM; MCDA methods help multiple stakeholders evaluate the often conflicting criteria, communicate their different preferences, and rank or prioritize MSWM strategies to finally agree on some elements of these strategies and make an applicable decision. This paper reviews and brings together research on the application of MCDA for solving MSWM problems with more focus on the studies that have considered multiple stakeholders and offers solutions for such problems. Results of this study show that AHP is the most common approach in consideration of multiple stakeholders and experts and governments/municipalities are the most common participants in these studies.

  4. Perspectives on Cybersecurity Information Sharing among Multiple Stakeholders Using a Decision-Theoretic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Meilin; Devine, Laura; Zhuang, Jun

    2017-08-11

    The government, private sectors, and others users of the Internet are increasingly faced with the risk of cyber incidents. Damage to computer systems and theft of sensitive data caused by cyber attacks have the potential to result in lasting harm to entities under attack, or to society as a whole. The effects of cyber attacks are not always obvious, and detecting them is not a simple proposition. As the U.S. federal government believes that information sharing on cybersecurity issues among organizations is essential to safety, security, and resilience, the importance of trusted information exchange has been emphasized to support public and private decision making by encouraging the creation of the Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC). Through a decision-theoretic approach, this article provides new perspectives on ISAC, and the advent of the new Information Sharing and Analysis Organizations (ISAOs), which are intended to provide similar benefits to organizations that cannot fit easily into the ISAC structure. To help understand the processes of information sharing against cyber threats, this article illustrates 15 representative information sharing structures between ISAC, government, and other participating entities, and provide discussions on the strategic interactions between different stakeholders. This article also identifies the costs of information sharing and information security borne by different parties in this public-private partnership both before and after cyber attacks, as well as the two main benefits. This article provides perspectives on the mechanism of information sharing and some detailed cost-benefit analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  6. Information used in the decision-making process regarding influenza vaccination policy: perceptions of stakeholders in France and the Netherlands.

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, M. L.; Perrier, L.; Paget, J.; Mosnier, A; Buthion, V.; Cohen, J. M.; Späth, H.M.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To minimize the medical and societal impact of influenza, most WHO countries recommend seasonal vaccination in targeted populations; however, little is known about the decision-making procedures at a country-level. In Europe, the Netherlands has the highest rate of influenza vaccination and France is not far behind. Our purpose was to analyze differences and similarities in the information used in the decision-making process between these two countries, according to the stakeholde...

  7. Development of a comprehensive model for stakeholder management in mental healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierbooms, Joyce; Van Oers, Hans; Rijkers, Jeroen; Bongers, Inge

    2016-06-20

    Purpose - Stakeholder management is not yet incorporated into the standard practice of most healthcare providers. The purpose of this paper is to assess the applicability of a comprehensive model for stakeholder management in mental healthcare organization for more evidence-based (stakeholder) management. Design/methodology/approach - The assessment was performed in two research parts: the steps described in the model were executed in a single case study at a mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands; and a process and effect evaluation was done to find the supporting and impeding factors with regard to the applicability of the model. Interviews were held with managers and directors to evaluate the effectiveness of the model with a view to stakeholder management. Findings - The stakeholder analysis resulted in the identification of eight stakeholder groups. Different expectations were identified for each of these groups. The analysis on performance gaps revealed that stakeholders generally find the collaboration with a mental healthcare provider "sufficient." Finally a prioritization showed that five stakeholder groups were seen as "definite" stakeholders by the organization. Practical implications - The assessment of the model showed that it generated useful knowledge for more evidence-based (stakeholder) management. Adaptation of the model is needed to increase its feasibility in practice. Originality/value - Provided that the model is properly adapted for the specific field, the analysis can provide more knowledge on stakeholders and can help integrate stakeholder management as a comprehensive process in policy planning.

  8. Collaborative modelling for active involvement of stakeholders in urban flood risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Evers

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to enhance the role of local stakeholders in dealing with urban floods. The concept is based on the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative Modelling and Management of Flood Risk of the 2nd ERANET CRUE funding initiative. The main objective of the project was to develop and test an advanced methodology for enhancing the resilience of local communities to flooding. Through collaborative modelling, a social learning process was initiated that enhances the social capacity of the stakeholders due to the interaction process. The other aim of the project was to better understand how data from hazard and vulnerability analyses and improved maps, as well as from the near real-time flood prediction, can be used to initiate a public dialogue (i.e. collaborative mapping and planning activities in order to carry out more informed and shared decision-making processes and to enhance flood risk awareness. The concept of collaborative modelling was applied in two case studies: (1 the Cranbrook catchment in the UK, with focus on pluvial flooding; and (2 the Alster catchment in Germany, with focus on fluvial flooding. As a result of the interactive and social learning process, supported by sociotechnical instruments, an understanding of flood risk was developed amongst the stakeholders and alternatives for flood risk management for the respective case study area were jointly developed and ranked as a basis for further planning and management.

  9. Promoting Sustainable Forest Management Among Stakeholders in the Prince Albert Model Forest, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen T Hvenegaard

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Model Forests are partnerships for shared decision-making to support social, environmental, and economic sustainability in forest management. Relationships among sustainable forest management partners are often strained, but the Prince Albert Model Forest (PAMF represents a process of effective stakeholder involvement, cooperative relationships, visionary planning, and regional landscape management. This article seeks to critically examine the history, drivers, accomplishments, and challenges associated with the PAMF. Four key phases are discussed, representing different funding levels, planning processes, research projects, and partners. Key drivers in the PAMF were funding, urgent issues, provincial responsibility, core of committed people, evolving governance, desire for a neutral organisation, role of protected areas, and potential for mutual benefits. The stakeholders involved in the Model Forest, including the forest industry and associated groups, protected areas, Aboriginal groups, local communities, governments, and research groups, were committed to the project, cooperated on many joint activities, provided significant staffing and financial resources, and gained many benefits to their own organisations. Challenges included declining funding, changing administrative structures, multiple partners, and rotating representatives. The PAMF process promoted consultative and integrated land resource management in the region, and demonstrated the positive results of cooperation between stakeholders interested in sustainable forest management.

  10. Towards a Multi-Stakeholder-Driven Model for Excellence in Higher Education Curriculum Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, M. H.; Bushney, M. J.

    2008-01-01

    A multi-stakeholder-driven model for excellence in higher education curriculum development has been developed. It is based on the assumption that current efforts to curriculum development take place within a framework of limited stakeholder consultation. A total of 18 multiple stakeholders are identified, including learners, alumni, government,…

  11. Towards a Multi-Stakeholder-Driven Model for Excellence in Higher Education Curriculum Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, M. H.; Bushney, M. J.

    2008-01-01

    A multi-stakeholder-driven model for excellence in higher education curriculum development has been developed. It is based on the assumption that current efforts to curriculum development take place within a framework of limited stakeholder consultation. A total of 18 multiple stakeholders are identified, including learners, alumni, government,…

  12. A decision Enhancement Service for Stakeholder Analysis to Achieve Transformations in the Public Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knol, Arjan; Janssen, Marijn; Sol, H G

    2015-01-01

    Sourcing has become a popular practice for public sector managers aiming for transformations to save costs and improve service delivery. Nevertheless, public sector sourcing often fails due to stakeholder resistance and power struggles, stressing the need for stakeholder analysis. This paper present

  13. Real Life Decision Optimization Model

    OpenAIRE

    Raju, Naga; Reddy, Diwakar; Reddy, Rajeswara; Krishnaiah, G

    2016-01-01

    In real life scientific and engineering problems decision making is common practice. Decision making include single decision maker or group of decision makers. Decision maker’s expressions consists imprecise, inconsistent and indeterminate information. Also, the decision maker cannot select the best solution in unidirectional (single goal) way. Therefore, proposed model adopts decision makers’ opinions in Neutrosophic Values (SVNS/INV) which effectively deals imprecise, inconsistent and indet...

  14. Towards better modelling and decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Grimm, V; Augusiak, J.

    2014-01-01

    The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE......, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its......, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing...

  15. Towards better modelling and decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Grimm, V; Augusiak, J.;

    2014-01-01

    The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE......, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its......, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing...

  16. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  17. Evaluating barriers for reverse logistics implementation under a multiple stakeholders' perspective analysis using grey decision making approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouzon, Marina; Govindan, Kannan; Rodriguez, Carlos Manuel Taboada

    2017-01-01

    In the past few decades, an interest in reverse logistics has attracted the attention of industries and also has become a subject of interest for researchers. However, while reverse logistics is becoming a mandatory element of the supply chain in developed countries particularly due to legislation...... issues, the subject is still in a state of infancy in emerging economies such as Brazil. In these connections, impediments to reverse logistics implementation must be considered and analyzed, as well as the many different perspectives from the key stakeholders for their development. The objective...... of this research is to evaluate the interrelationship among reverse logistics barriers from the perspectives of the most important stakeholders in the Brazilian context. For this purpose, a Multi-Criteria Decision Making tool named grey-based Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (grey-DEMATEL) was used...

  18. Multi-Stakeholder Decision Aid for Improved Prioritization of the Public Health Impact of Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Hongoh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are an important global health concern and necessitate decisions for allocation of resources. Economic tools have been used previously; however, how prioritization results might differ when done using broader considerations identified by local stakeholders has yet to be assessed. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA approach was used to assess multi-stakeholder expressed concerns around disease prioritization via focus groups held in Quebec and Burkina Faso. Stakeholders weighted criteria and comparisons were made across study sites. A pilot disease prioritization was done to examine effects on disease rankings. A majority of identified criteria were common to both sites. The effect of context specific criteria and weights resulted in similar yet distinct prioritizations of diseases. The presence of consistent criteria between sites suggests that common concerns exist for prioritization; however, context-specific adjustments reveal much regarding resource availability, capacity and concerns that should be considered as this impacts disease ranking. Participatory decision aid approaches facilitate rich knowledge exchange and problem structuring. Furthermore, given multiple actors in low- and middle-income countries settings, multi-actor collaborations across non-governmental organizations, local government and community are important. Formal mechanisms such as MCDA provide means to foster consensus, shared awareness and collaboration.

  19. Benefit-risk trade-offs in retrospect: how major stakeholders perceive the decision-making process in the Barents Sea oil field development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Renn, Ortwin; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Øien, Knut

    2013-01-01

    This study provides an analysis of risk-benefit communication and participation of the siting process for the Norwegian Goliat oil field development, within the context of a revised model of the International Risk Governance Council’s framework. The main objective of the study is a retrospective...... additional benefits to the communities which would then be fairly distributed among the beneficiaries have been disappointed. We review the reasons behind these results as well as formulate recommendations regarding potential improvements to the risk-benefit communication process in addition to future siting...... review of the decision-making process seen through the lenses of the major stakeholders involved in this process. The research design used qualitative methods of empirical research including stakeholder interviews during a five-day period in 2011 in Northern Norway. Results showed that the siting process...

  20. Stakeholder Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flak, Leif Skiftenes; Rose, Jeremy

    2005-01-01

    The e-government field, like most young fields, lacks a strong body of well-developed theory. One strategy for coping with theoretical immaturity is to import and adapt theories from other, more mature fields. This study reviews Stakeholder Theory (ST) and investigates its potential in relation...... to e-Government. Originally a management theory, stakeholder theory advocates addressing the concerns of all stakeholders in a firm, as opposed to concentration on the interests of senior managers and stockholders. Apart from the original profit focus, there is no serious conceptual mismatch between...... stakeholder theory and government’s objective of providing policy and services for citizens and organizations – society’s stakeholders. Potential problems with adapting a management theory to a government setting are discussed. The paper further discusses how information technology impacts a stakeholder model...

  1. Stakeholder Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flak, Leif Skiftenes; Rose, Jeremy

    2005-01-01

    The e-government field, like most young fields, lacks a strong body of well-developed theory. One strategy for coping with theoretical immaturity is to import and adapt theories from other, more mature fields. This study reviews Stakeholder Theory (ST) and investigates its potential in relation...... to e-Government. Originally a management theory, stakeholder theory advocates addressing the concerns of all stakeholders in a firm, as opposed to concentration on the interests of senior managers and stockholders. Apart from the original profit focus, there is no serious conceptual mismatch between...... stakeholder theory and government’s objective of providing policy and services for citizens and organizations – society’s stakeholders. Potential problems with adapting a management theory to a government setting are discussed. The paper further discusses how information technology impacts a stakeholder model...

  2. Towards a more dynamic stakeholder model : Acknowledgning multiple issue arenas

    OpenAIRE

    Luoma-aho, Vilma; Vos, Marita

    2010-01-01

    Purpose – The paper suggest that corporate communications is becoming less predictable as interaction with stakeholders is moving from organizational control toward ‘issue arenas’, places of interaction where an issue is discussed by stakeholders and organizations both online and within the traditional media. The role of corporate communications and public relations is broadening beyond the traditional relationship management to issue arena monitoring. Design/methodology/approach – Theor...

  3. Reviewing the Role of Stakeholders in Operational Research: Opportunities for Group Model Building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gooyert, V. de; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.; Kranenburg, H.L. van

    2013-01-01

    Stakeholders have always received much attention in system dynamics, especially in the group model building tradition, which emphasizes the deep involvement of a client group in building a system dynamics model. In organizations, stakeholders are gaining more and more attention by managers who try t

  4. A Model for Gathering Stakeholder Input for Setting Research Priorities at the Land-Grant University.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Kathleen Dodge; Pense, Seburn L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for collecting and using stakeholder input on research priorities is a modification of Guba and Lincoln's model, involving preevaluation preparation, stakeholder identification, information gathering and analysis, interpretive filtering, and negotiation and consensus. A case study at Oklahoma State University illustrates its applicability…

  5. EQUIPT: supporting European stakeholders to make decisions about investment in evidence-based tobacco control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Evers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available EQUIPT brings together expertise from multiple disciplines and aims to provide policy makers and wider stakeholders with bespoke information about the economic and wider returns that investing in evidence-based tobacco control including smoking cessation agendas can generate. Led by Health Economics Research Group (HERG at Brunel University, London, EQUIPT is a partnership of 11 consortium members from 7 member states – Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK.

  6. Nursing Home Stakeholder Views of Resident Involvement in Medical Care Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Theresa J.; Harrison, Tracie C.; Goodwin, James S.

    2017-01-01

    Demand by nursing home residents for involvement in their medical care, or, patient-centered care, is expected to increase as baby boomers begin seeking long-term care for their chronic illnesses. To explore the needs in meeting this proposed demand, we used a qualitative descriptive method with content analysis to obtain the joint perspective of key stakeholders on the current state of person-centered medical care in the nursing home. We interviewed 31 nursing home stakeholders: 5 residents, 7 family members, 8 advanced practice registered nurses, 5 physicians, and 6 administrators. Our findings revealed constraints placed by the long-term care system limited medical involvement opportunities and created conflicting goals for patient-centered medical care. Resident participation in medical care was perceived as low, but important. The creation of supportive educational programs for all stakeholders to facilitate a common goal for nursing home admission and to provide assistance through the long-term care system was encouraged. PMID:25721717

  7. Modeling Stakeholder Decision Logic: A Case Study of Lebanese Hezbollah

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    100 and 400 (Farndon 2007). Khan’s iron-fisted rule alienated the clergy (and others), but it was his relationship with Nazi Germany ahead of World...IRGC (Coughlin 135). 27 Musa al-Sadr’s disappearance is an enigma . Not everyone agrees with Coughlin’s characterization. Barbara Slavin, in an...excused [the occupation] for the common good” in light of the threat faced with Nazi Germany (Gardner 2009), but Roosevelt disavowed “any designs on the

  8. An innovative approach to addressing childhood obesity: a knowledge-based infrastructure for supporting multi-stakeholder partnership decision-making in Quebec, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addy, Nii Antiaye; Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Buckeridge, David L; Dubé, Laurette

    2015-01-23

    Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a "portrait", which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic

  9. An Innovative Approach to Addressing Childhood Obesity: A Knowledge-Based Infrastructure for Supporting Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Decision-Making in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nii Antiaye Addy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a “portrait”, which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed

  10. Multi-criteria decision making in flood risk management: research progress and the challenge of handling uncertainty and stakeholder participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

    2016-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods have received much attention from researchers and practitioners for solving flood risk management problems in the last decades due to its capacity to deal with multiple criteria, conflicting objectives as well as the knowledge arising from the participation of several actors. In order to consolidate recent research conducted in this area, this study presents a state-of-the-art literature review of MCDM applications to flood risk management, seeking to provide a better understanding of the current status of how participatory MCDM is being conducted and the way uncertainties are included in the decision-making process. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 in 72 different journals were systematically analyzed. Results indicated that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82% of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of application areas was identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation (22.78% of the total) followed by risk (21.11%) and vulnerability assessment (15%). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular MCDM method (42.72%) followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) (13.33%) and Weighted Sum Method (WSM) (12.73%). Although significant improvements have been made over the last decades, shortcomings remain in handling the uncertainty. Only eight papers (6.25%) have conducted uncertainty analysis, suggesting that a general procedure for performing it in MCDM does not yet exist. Researchers have applied the Monte Carlo simulation, Taylor's series error propagation method or assessed the uncertainty in qualitative ways, by describing its main sources or analyzing the stakeholders' degree of confidence. In addition, 35 articles (27.34%) have performed a sensitivity analysis of the criteria weights. Three distinct approaches were

  11. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  12. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  13. The disempowerment of empowerment: How stakeholding clogs up rural decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Curry, N.

    2009-01-01

    In the context of a growth in both participatory democracy and responsible participation, rural decision-making in England has become increasingly complex over the past 30 years, fuelled by national polices relating to regionalism, citizenship and relocalisation. A survey of ‘agents of rural governance’ (ARGs) in the county of Gloucestershire, England, charts their recent growth, reasons for formation and perceived jurisdiction as well as examining complexities of decision-making relating to ...

  14. Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

  15. Computerized physician order entry with clinical decision support in long-term care facilities: costs and benefits to stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Sujha; Hoover, Sonja; Gilman, Boyd; Field, Terry S; Mutter, Ryan; Gurwitz, Jerry H

    2007-09-01

    Nursing homes are the setting of care for growing numbers of our nation's older people, and adverse drug events are an increasingly recognized safety and quality concern in this population. Health information technology, including computerized physician/provider order entry (CPOE) with clinical decision support (CDS), has been proposed as an important systems-based approach for reducing medication errors and preventable drug-related injuries. This article describes the costs and benefits of CPOE with CDS for the various stakeholders involved in long-term care (LTC), including nurses, physicians, the pharmacy, the laboratory, the payer (e.g., the insurer), nursing home residents, and the LTC facility. Critical barriers to adoption of these systems are discussed, primarily from an economic perspective. The analysis suggests that multiple stakeholders will incur the costs related to implementation of CPOE with CDS in the LTC setting, but the costs incurred by each may not be aligned with the benefits, which may present a major barrier to broad adoption. Physicians and LTC facilities are likely to bear a large burden of the costs, whereas residents and payers will enjoy a large portion of the benefits. Consideration of these costs and benefits suggests that financial incentives to physicians and facilities may be necessary to encourage and accelerate widespread use of these systems in the LTC setting.

  16. Downscaling SSPs in the GBM Delta - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Munsur Rahman, Md.; Hutton, Craig; Lazar, Attila

    2016-04-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  17. Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  18. Parameterization of a rainfall-runoff model based on the utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelletti, Matteo; Toth, Elena

    2016-04-01

    The work presents the application of a new method for calibration of an hydrological rainfall-runoff model, based on the use of utility functions. The utility function is defined on the basis of the specific purpose of the desired predictions, according to the needs of the stakeholders that will use them: in the present case, the purpose is the identification of the future streamflow occurrences that will surpass an assigned threshold runoff, thus helping the stakeholder in the decisions concerning the issuance of flood watches and warnings in the operation of a flood forecasting system. The chosen utility function is based on both the absolute error of the model and the values of the observed streamflow. In addition to the parameterization developed using the utility function, in an application referred to a mid-sized mountain watershed in Tuscany (Italy), the model response was studied, as a term of comparison, also using traditional mono- and multi-objective calibration approaches. The results, evaluated also using skill scores based on false and missed alarms as well as on the probability of detection and frequency of hits of the threshold runoff (widely adopted when assessing the value of both meteorological and hydrological forecasts in real-world flood warning systems), demonstrate that the proposed approach may allow an improvement of the model performances, if compared with traditional mono-objective and multi-objective calibration procedures, in respect to the actual utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder.

  19. Facilitated workshop method to involve stakeholders and public in decision making process in radiological emergencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustonen, Raimo; Sinkko, Kari [STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland). Research and Environmental Surveillance; Haemaelaeinen, Raimo P. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Helsinki (Finland). System Analysis Laboratory

    2006-09-15

    International organisations in radiation protection have for many years recommended that key players, e.g. authorities, expert organisations, industry, producers of foodstuffs and even the public, should be involved in the planning of protective actions in case of a nuclear accident. In this work, we have developed and tested a facilitated workshop method where representatives from various fields of the society aim to identify and evaluate systematically protective actions. Decision analysis techniques have been applied in workshops in order to find out the most feasible countermeasure strategies and to make the decision making-process transparent and auditable. The work builds on case studies where it was assumed that a hypothetical accident had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore various types of countermeasures should be considered. This paper provides experiences gained in several European countries on how to facilitate this kind of workshops and how modern decision analysis techniques can be applied in the decision-making process.

  20. OysterFutures: Integrating Stakeholder Objectives with Natural System Models to Promote Sustainable Natural Resource Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, E. W.; Blair, J.; Cornwell, J. C.; Freitag, A. E.; Gawde, R. K.; Hartley, T. W.; Hood, R. R.; Jones, R. M.; Miller, T. J.; Thomas, J. E.; Wainger, L. A.; Wilberg, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Achieving effective natural resource management is challenged by multiple and often competing objectives, a restricted set of policy options, and uncertainty in the performance of those options. Yet, managers need policies that allow continued use of natural resources while ensuring access for future generations and maintenance of ecosystem services. Formal approaches are needed that will assist managers and stakeholders in choosing policy options that have a high likelihood of achieving social, ecological, and economic goals. The goal of this project, OysterFutures, is to address this need by improving the use of predictive models to support sustainable natural resource policy and management. A stakeholder-centered process will be used to build an integrated model that combines estuarine physics, oyster life history, and the ecosystem services that oysters provide (e.g., harvest, water quality) to forecast outcomes under alternative management strategies. Through a series of facilitated meetings, stakeholders will participate in a science-based collaborative process which will allow them to project how well policies are expected to meet their objectives using the integrated model. This iterative process will ensure that the model will incorporate the complex human uses of the ecosystem as well as focus on the outcomes most important to the stakeholders. In addition, a study of the socioeconomic drivers of stakeholder involvement, information flow, use and influence, and policy formation will be undertaken to improve the process, enhance implementation success of recommended policies, and provide new ideas for integrating natural and social sciences, and scientists, in sustainable resource management. In this presentation, the strategy for integrating natural system models, stakeholder views, and sociological studies as well as methods for selecting stakeholders and facilitating stakeholder meetings will be described and discussed.

  1. Development and Validation of a Needs Assessment Model Using Stakeholders Involved in a University Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrecque, Monique

    1999-01-01

    Developed a needs-assessment model and validated the model with five groups of stakeholders connected with an undergraduate university nursing program in Canada. Used focus groups, questionnaires, a hermeneutic approach, and the magnitude-estimation scaling model to validate the model. Results show that respondents must define need to clarify the…

  2. Stakeholder Models for Social and Mobile Media CSR Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    This paper is intended to demonstrate current uses of smartphone and social media technology by consumers. The three cases discussed show ways in which consumers have built communities through social and mobile media for a range of purposes—1) to organize their purchasing activities to get busine...... and mobile media to address strategy issues with businesses. Thus, these cases reveal a technology-enabled blurring of the boundaries between companies and their stakeholders through consumers' actions.......This paper is intended to demonstrate current uses of smartphone and social media technology by consumers. The three cases discussed show ways in which consumers have built communities through social and mobile media for a range of purposes—1) to organize their purchasing activities to get...... have built up an increasingly global presence since their founding in 2007-2008. Given the longevity of these organizations, which are still operating in 2012, their versions of CSR, and the internet presences they have built up, these cases demonstrate examples of consumers mobilizing through social...

  3. Who are the Relevants Stakeholders to the Local Government Context? Empirical Evidences on Environmental Influences in the Decision-Making Process of English Local Authorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Corrêa Gomes

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available This article presents empirical evidence of stakeholding in the local government context. It is the result of a survey carried out with English Local Authorities in 2001. It outlines the arena in which local government make decisions by pinpointing the relevant stakeholders in the process as well as the amount of power they areperceived to represent by chief executives. The investigation has its theoretical basis in resource dependence and institutional theories, which are commonly used for explaining an organization’s behaviour and performance as influenced by its environment. As an empirical contribution, the article proposes a stakeholder map for any kind of local government organizations that will help in identifying strategies for managing stakeholders.

  4. Value of decision analysis in stakeholder interactions for the restoration and recovery from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    The importance of stakeholder involvement in the management of watersheds is receiving greater recognition than in the past; however, interacting with stakeholders is frequently accomplished using informal procedures. It is essential to structure elicitations so that they can be ...

  5. Issues in Strategic Decision Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Jennings, Paula

    2008-01-01

    [Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different modelling approaches are specialist areas in themselves. Model development can be onerous, expensive, time consuming, and often bewildering. It is also an iterative process where the true magnitude of the effort, time and data required is often not fully understood until well into the process. This paper explores the traditional approaches to strategic planning modelling commonly used in organisations and considers the application of a real-options approach to match and benefit from the increasing uncertainty in today's rapidly changing world.

  6. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  7. Key elements for implementing comprehensive health care models for persons with HIV: a stakeholder analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchior, L A; Panter, A T; Larson, T A; Meredith, K L; Richardson-Nassif, K; Huba, G J

    2000-09-01

    A semistructured interview was conducted with 69 stakeholders in three university-based health care projects that were funded to provide an integrated continuum of care for persons living with HIV/AIDS. Data from the key informant interviews yielded composite indicators of familiarity with the service model, the importance of the elements in the service model, and the perceived quality of services provided by these innovative HIV service demonstration projects. Ratings of service quality were related to ratings of the respondent's knowledge of the service demonstration project, the importance of the various elements in the service continuum, and several indicators of stakeholder characteristics using the data modeling method of Exhaustive CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector). The groups of stakeholders most likely to give the highest quality or success ratings for these projects are identified. The implications of these findings for developing collaborative and comprehensive service models for persons with HIV/AIDS are discussed.

  8. Stakeholder perceptions of decision-making process on marine biodiversity conservation on sal island (Cape Verde

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ramos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Sal Island (Cape Verde there is a growing involvement, will and investment in the creation of tourism synergies. However, much of the economic potential of the island can be found submerged in the sea: it is its intrinsic 'biodiversity'. Due to this fact, and in order to balance environmental safety and human pressure, it has been developed a strategy addressing both diving and fishing purposes. That strategy includes the deployment of several artificial reefs (ARs around the island. In order to allocate demand for diving and fishing purposes, we have developed a socio-economic research approach addressing the theme of biodiversity and reefs (both natural and artificial and collected expectations from AR users by means of an inquiry method. It is hypothesized a project where some management measures are proposed aiming marine biodiversity conservation. Using the methodology named as analytic hierarchy process (AHP it was scrutinized stakeholders' perception on the best practice for marine biodiversity conservation in the Sal Island. The results showed that to submerge obsolete structures in rocky or mixed areas have a high potential, but does not gathers consensuality. As an overall conclusion, it seems that limitation of activities is the preferred management option to consider in the future.Na Ilha do Sal (Cabo Verde existe um crescente envolvimento, vontade e investimento na criação de sinergias turísticas. Contudo, muito do potencial económico da ilha está submerso - a biodiversidade marinha. Devido a este facto, e tendo em vista promover a sustentabilidade ambiental associada ao eco-turismo, vem sendo desenvolvida uma estratégia direccionada, quer ao mergulho, quer à pesca. Esta estratégia inclui a implantação de vários recifes artificiais (RA na Baía de Santa Maria. De modo a alocar a procura para propósitos como o mergulho e a pesca, desenvolvemos um plano de pesquisa socio-económica relativo ao tema da biodiversidade

  9. Stakeholder Power Dynamics in Environmental Decision Making:A Case Study of the 2012 FVMargiris ‘Super Trawler’Fishing Dilemma in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Wainwright, Laurence

    2015-01-01

    The involvement of diverse stakeholders in the decision making process and the acknowledgement of their multiple and often conflicting objectives is accepted as a critical ingredient in arriving at environmentally responsible outcomes which balance long term environmental sustainability with pragmatic, short term realities. While existing literature has accepted that unequal power dynamics between actors exist in the process of environmental decision making, little coverage has been given to ...

  10. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  11. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  12. Fuzzy cognitive mapping in support of integrated ecosystem assessments: Developing a shared conceptual model among stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasslides, James M; Jensen, Olaf P

    2016-01-15

    Ecosystem-based approaches, including integrated ecosystem assessments, are a popular methodology being used to holistically address management issues in social-ecological systems worldwide. In this study we utilized fuzzy logic cognitive mapping to develop conceptual models of a complex estuarine system among four stakeholder groups. The average number of categories in an individual map was not significantly different among groups, and there were no significant differences between the groups in the average complexity or density indices of the individual maps. When ordered by their complexity scores, eight categories contributed to the top four rankings of the stakeholder groups, with six of the categories shared by at least half of the groups. While non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) analysis displayed a high degree of overlap between the individual models across groups, there was also diversity within each stakeholder group. These findings suggest that while all of the stakeholders interviewed perceive the subject ecosystem as a complex series of social and ecological interconnections, there are a core set of components that are present in most of the groups' models that are crucial in managing the system towards some desired outcome. However, the variability in the connections between these core components and the rest of the categories influences the exact nature of these outcomes. Understanding the reasons behind these differences will be critical to developing a shared conceptual model that will be acceptable to all stakeholder groups and can serve as the basis for an integrated ecosystem assessment.

  13. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  14. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  15. Consideration of Insulin Pumps or Continuous Glucose Monitors by Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes and Their Parents: Stakeholder Engagement in the Design of Web-Based Decision Aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysocki, Tim; Hirschfeld, Fiona; Miller, Louis; Izenberg, Neil; Dowshen, Steven A; Taylor, Alex; Milkes, Amy; Shinseki, Michelle T; Bejarano, Carolina; Kozikowski, Chelsea; Kowal, Karen; Starr-Ashton, Penny; Ross, Judith L; Kummer, Mark; Carakushansky, Mauri; Lyness, D'Arcy; Brinkman, William; Pierce, Jessica; Fiks, Alexander; Christofferson, Jennifer; Rafalko, Jessica; Lawson, Margaret L

    2016-08-01

    This article describes the stakeholder-driven design, development, and testing of web-based, multimedia decision aids for youth with type 1 diabetes who are considering the insulin pump or continuous glucose monitoring and their parents. This is the initial phase of work designed to develop and evaluate the efficacy of these decision aids in promoting improved decision-making engagement with use of a selected device. Qualitative interviews of 36 parents and adolescents who had previously faced these decisions and 12 health care providers defined the content, format and structure of the decision aids. Experts in children's health media helped the research team to plan, create, and refine multimedia content and its presentation. A web development firm helped organize the content into a user-friendly interface and enabled tracking of decision aid utilization. Throughout, members of the research team, adolescents, parents, and 3 expert consultants offered perspectives about the website content, structure, and function until the design was complete. With the decision aid websites completed, the next phase of the project is a randomized controlled trial of usual clinical practice alone or augmented by use of the decision aid websites. Stakeholder-driven development of multimedia, web-based decision aids requires meticulous attention to detail but can yield exceptional resources for adolescents and parents contemplating major changes to their diabetes regimens. © 2016 The Author(s).

  16. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  17. Modeling transport pricing with multiple stakeholders. Working paper: Methodology and a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, E.

    2012-01-01

    Pricing measures (e.g., a kilometre charge or cordon toll) are used to improve the external effects of transportation (e.g., congestion or emissions). This working paper presents a planning model for pricing while taking the preferences and interactions of multiple stakeholders (e.g., governments or

  18. Three Tier Unified Process Model for Requirement Negotiations and Stakeholder Collaborations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Muhammad Ashraf Khan; Abbas, Muhammad; Shahzad, Muhammad

    2012-11-01

    This research paper is focused towards carrying out a pragmatic qualitative analysis of various models and approaches of requirements negotiations (a sub process of requirements management plan which is an output of scope managementís collect requirements process) and studies stakeholder collaborations methodologies (i.e. from within communication management knowledge area). Experiential analysis encompass two tiers; first tier refers to the weighted scoring model while second tier focuses on development of SWOT matrices on the basis of findings of weighted scoring model for selecting an appropriate requirements negotiation model. Finally the results are simulated with the help of statistical pie charts. On the basis of simulated results of prevalent models and approaches of negotiations, a unified approach for requirements negotiations and stakeholder collaborations is proposed where the collaboration methodologies are embeded into selected requirements negotiation model as internal parameters of the proposed process alongside some external required parameters like MBTI, opportunity analysis etc.

  19. Multi Stakeholders' Attitudes toward Bt rice in Southwest, Iran: Application of TPB and Multi Attribute Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoochani, Omid M; Ghanian, Mansour; Baradaran, Masoud; Azadi, Hossein

    2017-03-01

    Organisms that have been genetically engineered and modified (GM) are referred to as genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Bt crops are plants that have been genetically modified to produce certain proteins from the soil bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which makes these plants resistant to certain lepidopteran and coleopteran species. Genetically Modified (GM) rice was produced in 2006 by Iranian researchers from Tarom Mowla'ii and has since been called 'Bt rice'. As rice is an important source of food for over 3 billion inhabitants on Earth, this study aims to use a correlational survey in order to shed light on the predicting factors relating to the extent of stakeholders' behavioral intentions towards Bt rice. It is assumed and the results confirm that "attitudes toward GM crops" can be used as a bridge in the Attitude Model and the Behavioral Intention Model in order to establish an integrated model. To this end, a case study was made of the Southwest part of Iran in order to verify this research model. This study also revealed that as a part of the integrated research framework in the Behavior Intention Model both constructs of attitude and the subjective norm of the respondents serve as the predicting factors of stakeholders' intentions of working with Bt rice. In addition, the Attitude Model, as the other part of the integrated research framework, showed that the stakeholders' attitudes toward Bt rice can only be determined by the perceived benefits (e.g. positive outcomes) of Bt rice.

  20. Business Modeling to Implement an eHealth Portal for Infection Control: A Reflection on Co-Creation With Stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Limburg, Maarten; Wentzel, Jobke; Sanderman, Robbert; van Gemert-Pijnen, Lisette

    2015-08-13

    It is acknowledged that the success and uptake of eHealth improve with the involvement of users and stakeholders to make technology reflect their needs. Involving stakeholders in implementation research is thus a crucial element in developing eHealth technology. Business modeling is an approach to guide implementation research for eHealth. Stakeholders are involved in business modeling by identifying relevant stakeholders, conducting value co-creation dialogs, and co-creating a business model. Because implementation activities are often underestimated as a crucial step while developing eHealth, comprehensive and applicable approaches geared toward business modeling in eHealth are scarce. This paper demonstrates the potential of several stakeholder-oriented analysis methods and their practical application was demonstrated using Infectionmanager as an example case. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate how business modeling, with the focus on stakeholder involvement, is used to co-create an eHealth implementation. We divided business modeling in 4 main research steps. As part of stakeholder identification, we performed literature scans, expert recommendations, and snowball sampling (Step 1). For stakeholder analyzes, we performed "basic stakeholder analysis," stakeholder salience, and ranking/analytic hierarchy process (Step 2). For value co-creation dialogs, we performed a process analysis and stakeholder interviews based on the business model canvas (Step 3). Finally, for business model generation, we combined all findings into the business model canvas (Step 4). Based on the applied methods, we synthesized a step-by-step guide for business modeling with stakeholder-oriented analysis methods that we consider suitable for implementing eHealth. The step-by-step guide for business modeling with stakeholder involvement enables eHealth researchers to apply a systematic and multidisciplinary, co-creative approach for implementing eHealth. Business modeling becomes an

  1. Business Modeling to Implement an eHealth Portal for Infection Control: A Reflection on Co-Creation With Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentzel, Jobke; Sanderman, Robbert; van Gemert-Pijnen, Lisette

    2015-01-01

    Background It is acknowledged that the success and uptake of eHealth improve with the involvement of users and stakeholders to make technology reflect their needs. Involving stakeholders in implementation research is thus a crucial element in developing eHealth technology. Business modeling is an approach to guide implementation research for eHealth. Stakeholders are involved in business modeling by identifying relevant stakeholders, conducting value co-creation dialogs, and co-creating a business model. Because implementation activities are often underestimated as a crucial step while developing eHealth, comprehensive and applicable approaches geared toward business modeling in eHealth are scarce. Objective This paper demonstrates the potential of several stakeholder-oriented analysis methods and their practical application was demonstrated using Infectionmanager as an example case. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate how business modeling, with the focus on stakeholder involvement, is used to co-create an eHealth implementation. Methods We divided business modeling in 4 main research steps. As part of stakeholder identification, we performed literature scans, expert recommendations, and snowball sampling (Step 1). For stakeholder analyzes, we performed “basic stakeholder analysis,” stakeholder salience, and ranking/analytic hierarchy process (Step 2). For value co-creation dialogs, we performed a process analysis and stakeholder interviews based on the business model canvas (Step 3). Finally, for business model generation, we combined all findings into the business model canvas (Step 4). Results Based on the applied methods, we synthesized a step-by-step guide for business modeling with stakeholder-oriented analysis methods that we consider suitable for implementing eHealth. Conclusions The step-by-step guide for business modeling with stakeholder involvement enables eHealth researchers to apply a systematic and multidisciplinary, co-creative approach for

  2. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie;

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...

  3. The role of stakeholders in Murray-Darling Basin water management: How do irrigators make water use decisions and how can this influence water policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Wheeler, S. A.; Smith, D. J.; Gray, S.; Overton, I. C.; Crossman, N. D.; Doody, T.

    2014-12-01

    Water stress and overallocation are at the forefront of water management and policy challenges in Australia, especially in the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). Farmland within the MDB generates 40 percent of Australia's total agricultural production and utilizes 60 percent of all irrigation water withdrawn nationally. The Murray Darling Basin Plan, drafted in 2008 and enacted in November 2012, has at its core the establishment of environmentally sustainable diversion limits based on a threshold of water extraction which, if exceeded, would cause harm to key environmental assets in the MDB. The overall goal of the Plan is to balance economic, social and environmental outcomes within the Basin. Because irrigated agriculture is the major water user in the MDB, it is important to understand the factors that influence irrigation water use. We applied a mental modeling approach to assessing farmer water use decisions. The approach allowed us to solicit and document farmer insights into the multifaceted nature of irrigation water use decisions in the MDB. Following are a few insights gained from the workshops: 1) For both environmental and economic reasons, irrigators in the MDB have become experts in water use and water efficiency. Water managers and government officials could benefit by partnering with farmers and incorporating this expertise into water management decisions. 2) Irrigators in the MDB may have been misperceived when it comes to accepting policy change. Many, if not most, of the farmers we talked to understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. But a lack of accountability and predictability has added to the uncertainty in farming decisions. 3) Irrigators in the MDB subscribe to the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. Farmers should be recognized for their significant investments in the long-term sustainability of their farms and

  4. The co-operative model as a means of stakeholder management: An exploratory qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darrell Hammond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The South African economy has for some time been characterised by high unemployment, income inequality and a skills mismatch, all of which have contributed to conflict between business, government and labour. The co-operative model of stakeholder management is examined as a possible mitigating organisational form in this high-conflict environment. International experience indicates some success with co-operative models but they are not easy to implement effectively and face severe obstacles. Trust and knowledge sharing are critical for enabling a co-operative model of stakeholder management, which requires strong governance and adherence to strict rules. The model must balance the tension between optimisation of governance structures and responsiveness to members' needs. Furthermore, support from social and political institutions is necessary. We find barriers to scalability which manifest in the lack of depth of business skills, negative perception of the co-operative model by external stakeholders, government ambivalence, and a lack of willingness on the part of workers to co-operate for mutual benefit.

  5. MODULAR APPROACH WITH ROUGH DECISION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  6. Modular Approach with Rough Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  7. Business Modeling to Implement an eHealth Portal for Infection Control: A Reflection on Co-Creation With Stakeholders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Limburg, A.H.M.; van Gemert-Pijnen, Julia E.W.C.

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is acknowledged that the success and uptake of eHealth improve with the involvement of users and stakeholders to make technology reflect their needs. Involving stakeholders in implementation research is thus a crucial element in developing eHealth technology. Business modeling is an a

  8. Business Modeling to Implement an eHealth Portal for Infection Control: A Reflection on Co-Creation With Stakeholders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limburg, van Maarten; Gemert-Pijnen, van J.E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is acknowledged that the success and uptake of eHealth improve with the involvement of users and stakeholders to make technology reflect their needs. Involving stakeholders in implementation research is thus a crucial element in developing eHealth technology. Business modeling is an a

  9. Towards a stakeholder model for the co-production of the public-sector information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zita P. Correia

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Proposes a systemic approach to Public Sector Information (PSI, defined as comprising entities in four categories - citizens, businesses, policymakers and administrations. This system also comprises four categories of information - on citizenship, economic and social development, policy and administration. Method. . A selective literature review was conducted to produce a convergence of perspectives from different fields, to provide the foundations for the stakeholder model. Analysis. The implications of the systemic approach to PSI, are: a a holistic and open view of the entities and elements involved; b clarification of the role of each of the stakeholder groups; c commitment of each group to the public sector information system, and hence co-responsibility for the system. The principle of co-production is applied to the PSI system, by building on lessons from development studies. Results. A model is developed where the different groups of stakeholders are seen as groups of people and organizations with distinctive characteristics, playing different roles, but not mutually exclusive regarding their participation in the different subsystems. Conclusion. Success in adopting the proposed model may depend on pre-existing characteristics and conditions of each socio-political context, including existing levels of social capital, as much as on the implementation of technology to improve public service delivery. However, it is possible to build synergistic relations relatively quickly, through an imaginative application of 'soft technologies', such as institution-building and organizational change.

  10. Modeling stakeholder-defined climate risk on the Upper Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, Paul; Brown, Casey

    2012-10-01

    Climate change is believed to pose potential risks to the stakeholders of the Great Lakes due to changes in lake levels. This paper presents a model of stakeholder-defined risk as a function of climate change. It describes the development of a statistical model that links water resources system performance and climate changes developed for the Great Lakes of North America. The function is used in a process that links bottom-up water system vulnerability assessment to top-down climate change information. Vulnerabilities are defined based on input from stakeholders and resource experts and are used to determine system performance thresholds. These thresholds are used to measure performance over a wide range of climate changes mined from a large (55,590 year) stochastic data set. The performance and climate conditions are used to create a climate response function, a statistical model to predict lake performance based on climate statistics. This function facilitates exploration and analysis of performance over a wide range of climate conditions. It can also be used to estimate risk associated with change in climate mean and variability resulting from climate change. Problematic changes in climate can be identified and the probability of those conditions estimated using climate projections or other sources of climate information. The function can also be used to evaluate the robustness of a regulation plan and to compare performance of alternate plans. This paper demonstrates the utility of the climate response function as applied within the context of the International Upper Great Lakes Study.

  11. Capturing ecosystem services, stakeholders' preferences and trade-offs in coastal aquaculture decisions: a Bayesian belief network application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia Helene Marie; Brugere, Cecile

    2013-01-01

    Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development.

  12. Capturing ecosystem services, stakeholders' preferences and trade-offs in coastal aquaculture decisions: a Bayesian belief network application.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia Helene Marie Schmitt

    Full Text Available Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12 and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20 were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development.

  13. Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

    1986-01-01

    The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

  14. Engaging stakeholders in review and recommendations for models of outcome monitoring for substance abuse treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rush, Brian; Martin, Garth; Corea, Larry; Rotondi, Nooshin Khobzi

    2012-10-01

    We present an example of a collaborative process designed to review models of outcome monitoring for substance abuse services, with a view to assessing the feasibility of different approaches in Ontario, Canada. A conceptual framework that describes the parameters of an outcome monitoring system and four models of outcome monitoring were identified. Consultations were held with stakeholders (managers, directors, researchers, clinicians, and governmental representatives) about the types of information they would like to obtain from an outcome monitoring system. Our process is useful as a model for collaborative research with respect to performance measurement. The study's implications and limitations are noted.

  15. What does it mean to manage sky survey data? A model to facilitate stakeholder conversations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sands, Ashley E.; Darch, Peter T.

    2016-06-01

    Astronomy sky surveys, while of great scientific value independently, can be deployed even more effectively when multiple sources of data are combined. Integrating discrete datasets is a non-trivial exercise despite investments in standard data formats and tools. Creating and maintaining data and associated infrastructures requires investments in technology and expertise. Combining data from multiple sources necessitates a common understanding of data, structures, and goals amongst relevant stakeholders.We present a model of Astronomy Stakeholder Perspectives on Data. The model is based on 80 semi-structured interviews with astronomers, computational astronomers, computer scientists, and others involved in the building or use of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Interviewees were selected to ensure a range of roles, institutional affiliations, career stages, and level of astronomy education. Interviewee explanations of data were analyzed to understand how perspectives on astronomy data varied by stakeholder.Interviewees described sky survey data either intrinsically or extrinsically. “Intrinsic” descriptions of data refer to data as an object in and of itself. Respondents with intrinsic perspectives view data management in one of three ways: (1) “Medium” - securing the zeros and ones from bit rot; (2) “Scale” - assuring that changes in state are documented; or (3) “Content” - ensuring the scientific validity of the images, spectra, and catalogs.“Extrinsic” definitions, in contrast, define data in relation to other forms of information. Respondents with extrinsic perspectives view data management in one of three ways: (1) “Source” - supporting the integrity of the instruments and documentation; (2) “Relationship” - retaining relationships between data and their analytical byproducts; or (3) “Use” - ensuring that data remain scientifically usable.This model shows how data management can

  16. The Anthropology of Science Education Reform: An Alabama Model for Building an Integrated Stakeholder Systems Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denson, R. L.; Cox, G. N.

    2004-12-01

    Anthropologists are concerned with every aspect of the culture they are investigating. One of the five main branches of anthropology, socio-cultural anthropology, concerns itself with studying the relationship between behavior and culture. This paper explores the concept that changing the behavior of our culture - its beliefs and values - towards science is at the heart of science education reform. There are five institutions that socio-cultural anthropologists use to study the social organization of cultures: the educational system is only one of them. Its function - across all cultures - is to serve as a mechanism for implementing change in cultural beliefs and values. As leaders of science education reform, the Alabama model contends that we must stop the struggle with our purpose and get on with the business of leading culture change through an integrated stakeholder systems approach. This model stresses the need for the interaction of agencies other than education - including government, industry, the media and our health communities to operate in an integrated and systemic fashion to address the issues of living among a technically literate society. Twenty-five years of science education reform needs being voiced and programs being developed has not produced the desired results from within the educational system. This is too limited a focus to affect any real cultural change. It is when we acknowledge that students spend only an average of 12 percent of their life time in schools, that we can begin to ask ourselves what are our students learning the other 88 percent of their time - from their peers, their parents and the media - and what should we be doing to address this cultural crisis in these other arenas in addition to the educational system? The Alabama Math, Science and Technology Education Coalition (AMSTEC) is a non-profit 501c(3) organization operating in the state of Alabama to provide leadership in improving mathematics, science, and technology

  17. The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, Thomas A; Dakins, Maxine; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Piet, Steven James

    2002-08-01

    The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions is a new way of viewing, developing, organizing, and evaluating alternatives for decisions that may affect a wide range of interests and that must factor in long timeframes, enduring hazards, and/or continuing responsibilities. It differs from other models in that it addresses the need for decisions to continue to "work" over long time periods in an ever-changing decision environment. The authors show that the model contains three major universes - knowledge, values, and resources (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE)- that interact and overlap throughout the effective lifetime of a decision. They discuss how decision-makers and decision participants can use the model to craft and analyze decisions and decision processes that stand the test of time. The authors use the U.S. moon-landing program as an example of a major decision process that was sustained over time. They use the model to explain why events unfolded in the way that they did - and why we are where we are today in that program. The authors believe that this model will be especially useful in long-term decision processes such as those that address contamination cleanup programs, long-term environmental stewardship, and the initial siting of facilities with long-term objectives. Companion papers describe the KONVERGENCE Model process steps and implications for intractable cleanup decisions.

  18. Collaborative learning framework for online stakeholder engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodyakov, Dmitry; Savitsky, Terrance D; Dalal, Siddhartha

    2016-08-01

    Public and stakeholder engagement can improve the quality of both research and policy decision making. However, such engagement poses significant methodological challenges in terms of collecting and analysing input from large, diverse groups. To explain how online approaches can facilitate iterative stakeholder engagement, to describe how input from large and diverse stakeholder groups can be analysed and to propose a collaborative learning framework (CLF) to interpret stakeholder engagement results. We use 'A National Conversation on Reducing the Burden of Suicide in the United States' as a case study of online stakeholder engagement and employ a Bayesian data modelling approach to develop a CLF. Our data modelling results identified six distinct stakeholder clusters that varied in the degree of individual articulation and group agreement and exhibited one of the three learning styles: learning towards consensus, learning by contrast and groupthink. Learning by contrast was the most common, or dominant, learning style in this study. Study results were used to develop a CLF, which helps explore multitude of stakeholder perspectives; identifies clusters of participants with similar shifts in beliefs; offers an empirically derived indicator of engagement quality; and helps determine the dominant learning style. The ability to detect learning by contrast helps illustrate differences in stakeholder perspectives, which may help policymakers, including Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, make better decisions by soliciting and incorporating input from patients, caregivers, health-care providers and researchers. Study results have important implications for soliciting and incorporating input from stakeholders with different interests and perspectives. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Impacts of Irrigation and Climate Change on Water Security: Using Stakeholder Engagement to Inform a Process-based Crop Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.; Han, B.; Som Castellano, R.; Steimke, A.

    2016-12-01

    Irrigation is an essential component for agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions, accounting for a majority of global freshwater withdrawals used for human consumption. Since climate change affects both the spatiotemporal demand and availability of water in irrigated areas, agricultural productivity and water efficiency depend critically on how producers adapt and respond to climate change. It is necessary, therefore, to understand the coevolution and feedbacks between humans and agricultural systems. Integration of social and hydrologic processes can be achieved by active engagement with local stakeholders and applying their expertise to models of coupled human-environment systems. Here, we use a process based crop simulation model (EPIC) informed by stakeholder engagement to determine how both farm management and climate change influence regional agricultural water use and production in the Lower Boise River Basin (LBRB) of southwest Idaho. Specifically, we investigate how a shift from flood to sprinkler fed irrigation would impact a watershed's overall agricultural water use under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The LBRB comprises about 3500 km2, of which 20% is dedicated to irrigated crops and another 40% to grass/pasture grazing land. Via interviews of stakeholders in the LBRB, we have determined that approximately 70% of irrigated lands in the region are flood irrigated. We model four common crops produced in the LBRB (alfalfa, corn, winter wheat, and sugarbeets) to investigate both hydrologic and agricultural impacts of irrigation and climatic drivers. Factors influencing farmers' decision to switch from flood to sprinkler irrigation include potential economic benefits, external financial incentives, and providing a buffer against future water shortages. These two irrigation practices are associated with significantly different surface water and energy budgets, and large-scale shifts in practice could substantially impact regional

  20. Using social network analysis to identify key stakeholders in agricultural biodiversity governance and related land-use decisions at regional and local level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Hauck

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In 2013 the European Commission launched its new green infrastructure strategy to make another attempt to stop and possibly reverse the loss of biodiversity until 2020, by connecting habitats in the wider landscape. This means that conservation would go beyond current practices to include landscapes that are dominated by conventional agriculture, where biodiversity conservation plays a minor role at best. The green infrastructure strategy aims at bottom-up rather than top-down implementation, and suggests including local and regional stakeholders. Therefore, it is important to know which stakeholders influence land-use decisions concerning green infrastructure at the local and regional level. The research presented in this paper served to select stakeholders in preparation for a participatory scenario development process to analyze consequences of different implementation options of the European green infrastructure strategy. We used a mix of qualitative and quantitative social network analysis (SNA methods to combine actors' attributes, especially concerning their perceived influence, with structural and relational measures. Further, our analysis provides information on institutional backgrounds and governance settings for green infrastructure and agricultural policy. The investigation started with key informant interviews at the regional level in administrative units responsible for relevant policies and procedures such as regional planners, representatives of federal ministries, and continued at the local level with farmers and other members of the community. The analysis revealed the importance of information flows and regulations but also of social pressure, considerably influencing biodiversity governance with respect to green infrastructure and biodiversity.

  1. A Model for Stakeholders' Influence on Internationalization: A Contribution from the Portuguese, Brazilian, and Dutch Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Rita; Rosa, Maria João; Pinho, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to discuss stakeholders' influence on higher education institutions' (HEIs) internationalization, through an analysis of the relationships established between stakeholders' importance and the institutions' rationales for internationalization, the strategies developed for internationalization, and the benefits from…

  2. A Model for Stakeholders' Influence on Internationalization: A Contribution from the Portuguese, Brazilian, and Dutch Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Rita; Rosa, Maria João; Pinho, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to discuss stakeholders' influence on higher education institutions' (HEIs) internationalization, through an analysis of the relationships established between stakeholders' importance and the institutions' rationales for internationalization, the strategies developed for internationalization, and the benefits from…

  3. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  4. Percepción, activos intangibles y stakeholders: modelo para el análisis de imagen corporativa Perception, intangible assets and stakeholders: model for the analysis of corporate image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Estefanía Pasquel Racines

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available El presente artículo abordará aproximaciones para la gestión de la imagen corporativa; pensada como un activo intangible que proyecta la institución. Además, se consideran diversos modelos y conceptos de capital intelectual que identifican factores relevantes hacia la toma decisión por parte de stakeholders. La percepción de imagen es un tema que ha suscitado interés por parte de instituciones, pues ésta se encuentra estrechamente vinculada a la formación integral de una idea que influye en el desarrollo de una actitud favorable o no hacia la reputación corporativa. De esta manera, los clientes, consumidores, proveedores, colaboradores, entre otros; reciben a través de distintas formas elementos que le ayudan a conformar una idea sobre la institución mediante sus percepciones; por lo que, orientar los esfuerzos y acciones en torno a este intangible, dará como resultado una rentabilidad no sólo monetaria sino una fidelidad y confianza por parte de sus stakeholders Es así, que se ha visto la necesidad de proponer un modelo para el análisis de la imagen corporativa de instituciones, el mismo que consta de cinco categorías las cuales poseen parámetros de puntuación, construidos a partir de los aportes de diferentes autores. This article will discuss approaches to the management of the corporate image; designed as an intangible asset that projects the institution. In addition, they are considered different models and concepts of intellectual capital that identify relevant factors into decision making by stakeholders. Image perception is an issue that has sparked interest from institutions, as this is closely linked to the integral formation of an idea that influences the development of a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward the corporate reputation. In this way, customers, consumers, suppliers, employees and others; they received through various forms elements that help you form an idea of the institution through their

  5. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  6. Knowledge Co-production Strategies for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.

    2016-12-01

    The limited impact of scientific information on policy making and climate adaptation in North America has raised awareness of the need for new modeling strategies and knowledge transfer processes. This paper outlines the rationale for a new paradigm in water resources modeling and management, using examples from the USA and Canada. Principles include anticipatory modeling, complex system dynamics, decision making under uncertainty, visualization, capacity to represent and manipulate critical trade-offs, stakeholder engagement, local knowledge, context-specific activities, social learning, vulnerability analysis, iterative and collaborative modeling, and the concept of a boundary organization. In this framework, scientists and stakeholders are partners in the production and dissemination of knowledge for decision making, and local knowledge is fused with scientific observation and methodology. Discussion draws from experience in building long-term collaborative boundary organizations in Phoenix, Arizona in the USA and the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Canada. Examples of boundary spanning activities include the use of visualization, the concept of a decision theater, infrastructure to support social learning, social networks, and reciprocity, simulation modeling to explore "what if" scenarios of the future, surveys to elicit how water problems are framed by scientists and stakeholders, and humanistic activities (theatrical performances, art exhibitions, etc.) to draw attention to local water issues. The social processes surrounding model development and dissemination are at least as important as modeling assumptions, procedures, and results in determining whether scientific knowledge will be used effectively for water resources decision making.

  7. On Stakeholders and the Decision Making Process Concerning Sustainable Renovation and Refurbishment in Sweden, Denmark and Cyprus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gohardani, Navid; Björk, Folke; Jensen, Per Anker;

    2013-01-01

    . In particular, the attitude of stakeholders in Sweden, Denmark and Cyprus to sustainable building renovation/refurbishment is studied through three separate case studies. Within the framework of this study, it is identified that building physics and durability are the most important drivers for energy...... renovation. In Sweden, Denmark and Cyprus, these factors are contributed by maintenance, deterioration and moisture, respectively. The results of the questionnaires and semi-structured interviews presented herein provide an insight into the renovation process in the aforementioned countries and reveal...

  8. Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France

    OpenAIRE

    Marc Poumadere; Claire Mays; Gabriela Pfeifle; Vafeidis, Athanasios T

    2005-01-01

    Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5-6m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030-2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop...

  9. Using Modularity with Rough Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for new techniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI techniques are the most appropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computing techniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problems without explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy set theory considered as major techniques, which allows decision makers to take a good decision using imprecise inexact data and knowledge. Now using rough set is getting quite necessary to be used for its ability to mining such type of data. In this research, we are looking forward to propose a novel technique, which depends on the integration between fuzzy set concepts and rough set theory in mining relational databases. The proposed model allows introducing modularity mechanism, by building a virtual modular decision tables according to variety of decision makers points of view. And introduce decision grouping mechanism for getting the optimizing decision. This approach provides flexibility in decision making verifies all decision standards and determines decision requirements, through modularizing rough decision table, extraction of rough association rules and developing mechanisms for decision grouping.

  10. Enhancing stakeholder participation in river basin management using mental mapping and causality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, D.

    2009-04-01

    Participation processes play a crucial role in implementing adaptive management in river basins. A range of different participative methods is being applied, however, little is known on their effectiveness in addressing the specific question or policy process at stake and their performance in different socio-economic and cultural settings. To shed light on the role of cultural settings on the outcomes of a participative process we carried out a comparative study of participation processes using group model building (GMB) in a European, a Central Asian, and an African river basin. We use an analytical framework which covers the goals, the role of science and stakeholders, the initiation and methods of the processes framed by very different cultural, socio-economic and biophysical conditions. Across all three basins, the GMB processes produced a shared understanding among all participants of the major water management issues in the respective river basin and common approaches to address them. The "ownership of the ideas" by the stakeholders, i.e. the topic to be addressed in a GMB process, is important for their willingness to contribute to such a participatory process. Differences, however, exist in so far that cultural and contextual constraints of the basin drive the way the GMB processes have been designed and how their results contribute to policy development.

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. USING MODULARITY WITH ROUGH DECISION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for newtechniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI techniques are the mostappropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computingtechniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problemswithout explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy set theory considered as majortechniques, which allows decision makers to take a good decision using imprecise inexact data andknowledge. Now using rough set is getting quite necessary to be used for its ability to mining such type ofdata. In this research, we are looking forward to propose a novel technique, which depends on theintegration between fuzzy set concepts and rough set theory in mining relational databases. The proposedmodel allows introducing modularity mechanism, by building a virtual modular decision tables accordingto variety of decision makers points of view. And introduce decision grouping mechanism for getting theoptimizing decision. This approach provides flexibility in decision making verifies all decision standardsand determines decision requirements, through modularizing rough decision table, extraction of roughassociation rules and developing mechanisms for decision grouping.

  13. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  14. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  15. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  16. Managing stakeholder involvement in decision-making : A comparative analysis of six interactive processes in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Edelenbos (Jurian); E-H. Klijn (Erik-Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractInitiatives to encourage and stimulate the involvement of citizens but also various societal organisations in decision-making can be seen in a wide variety of European countries. Citizens panels, citizens charters, new forms of participation and other forms are being used to increase the

  17. Managing stakeholder involvement in decision-making : A comparative analysis of six interactive processes in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Edelenbos (Jurian); E-H. Klijn (Erik-Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractInitiatives to encourage and stimulate the involvement of citizens but also various societal organisations in decision-making can be seen in a wide variety of European countries. Citizens panels, citizens charters, new forms of participation and other forms are being used to increase the

  18. Information used in the decision-making process regarding influenza vaccination policy: perceptions of stakeholders in France and the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silva, M.L.; Perrier, L.; Paget, J.; Mosnier, A.; Buthion, V.; Cohen, J.M.; Späth, H.M.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To minimize the medical and societal impact of influenza, most WHO countries recommend seasonal vaccination in targeted populations; however, little is known about the decision-making procedures at a country-level. In Europe, the Netherlands has the highest rate of influenza vaccination

  19. Decision making and co-operation between stakeholders within the process of sick leave. A case study in a Danish municipality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Kristina; Andersen, John Sahl; Mikkelsen, Sigurd;

    2011-01-01

    The study addresses how recent reforms of the Sickness Benefit Act in Denmark are put into practice. A single case study embedded with five subunits of analysis based on "real life" cases has been conducted in a Danish municipality. Five "sick-listed" citizens and their respective municipal case...... manager and general practitioner (GP) were interviewed. Two key persons within the municipality were interviewed as background informants. The GPs and case managers ability to co-operate was hampered by lack of time, frequent staff turnover, lack of financial resources, and low accessibility....... The motivation for co-operation was low due to low status of social medical issues, lack of feedback and lack of trust. The co-operation was characterized by sequential task integration. The stakeholders encountered difficulties when reciprocal task integration was needed. The decision making was affected...

  20. Stakeholder discourse and water management – implementation of the participatory model CATCH in a Northern Italian alpine sub-catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Collentine

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The Water Framework Directive (WFD, directive 2000/60/EC was created to ensure the sustainable use of water resources in the European Union. A central guideline included throughout the directive is a call for the participation of stakeholders in the management of these resources. Involving stakeholders is an important step to ensure that catchment management plans take into consideration local experience in the development of these plans and the impact of the plans on local interests. This paper describes and analyses the results of a series of workshops to facilitate implementation of the WFD at a catchment level based on the stakeholder participation model, CATCH. To test the usefulness of the CATCH model, developed for water management in a catchment area, a sub-catchment in an alpine valley in the north-east of Italy, the Alta Valsugana in the Province of Trento, was chosen as the setting for a series of workshops. In this valley water is fundamental for activities associated with agriculture, domestic use, energy production, sports and recreation. In the recent past the valley has had serious problems related to water quality and quantity. Implementation of water management plans under the WFD may lead to conflicts within the catchment between different stakeholder interest groups. Including stakeholders in the development of management plans not only follows the guidelines of the WFD but also could result in a more locally adapted and acceptable plan for the catchment. A new stakeholder analysis methodology was developed and implemented in order to identify the relevant stakeholders of the area and then two sets of workshops involving the key stakeholders identified were conducted in Spring 2006. The CATCH meetings were a new experience for the participants, who had to deal with both the principles of the WFD in general and the participation requirement in particular. During the meetings, the CATCH model played a very important role in

  1. Modeling Protected Species Habitat and Assigning Risk to Inform Regulatory Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Robert A.; Rubeck-Schurtz, C. Nichole; Millenbah, Kelly F.; Roloff, Gary J.; Whalon, Mark E.; Olsen, Larry G.

    2009-07-01

    In the United States, environmental regulatory agencies are required to use “best available” scientific information when making decisions on a variety of issues. However, agencies are often hindered by coarse or incomplete data, particularly as it pertains to threatened and endangered species protection. Stakeholders often agree that more resolute and integrated processes for decision-making are desirable. We demonstrate a process that uses species occurrence data for a federally endangered insect (Karner blue butterfly), a readily available habitat modeling tool, and spatially explicit information about an important Michigan commodity (tart cherries). This case study has characteristics of many protected species regulatory decisions in that species occurrence data were sparse and unequally distributed; regulatory decisions (on pesticide use) were required with potentially significant impacts on a viable agricultural industry; and stakeholder relations were diverse, misinformed, and, in some situations, unjustly contentious. Results from our process include a large-scale, empirically derived habitat suitability map for the focal species and a risk ranking of tart cherry orchards with risk based on the likelihood that pesticide applications will influence the focal protected species. Although the majority (77%) of pesticide-influence zones overlapped Karner blue butterfly habitat, risk scores associated with each orchard were low. Through our process we demonstrated that spatially explicit models can help stakeholders visualize and quantify potential protected species effects. In addition, model outputs can serve to guide field activities (e.g., species surveys and implementation of pesticide buffer zones) that help minimize future effects.

  2. Stakeholders' perspective on ecological modeling in environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hunka, Agnieszka; Meli, Mattia; Thit, Amalie

    2013-01-01

    -structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders from regulatory authorities, industry and academia all over Europe. The key informant approach was employed in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in the field and then sampled by means of a purposive sampling, where each...

  3. An Analysis of the Stakeholder Model of Public Boards and the Case of School Governing Bodies in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Michael; Farrell, Catherine; James, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    This article analyses the stakeholder model of boards that is widely used in public and third sector institutions in England and Wales. The central tenet of this model is that such institutions should be strategically led by individuals who are representative of and from the groups that have an interest in them. The article focuses in particular…

  4. A stakeholder-based system dynamics model of return-to-work: a research protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Jetha

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Returning to work following a job-related injury or illness can be a complex process, influenced by a range of interrelated personal, psychosocial, and organizational components. System dynamics modelling (SDM takes a sociotechnical systems perspective to view return-to-work (RTW as a system made up of multiple feedback relationships between influential components. Design and Methods. To build the RTW SDM, a mixed-method approach will be used. The first stage, that has already been completed, involved creating a baseline model using key informant interviews. Second, in two manufacturing companies, stakeholder-based models will be developed through interviews and focus groups with senior management, frontline workers, and frontline supervisors. Participants will be asked about the RTW process in general and more targeted questions regarding influential components. Participants will also be led through a reference mode exercise where they will be asked to estimate the direction, shape and magnitude of relationships between influential components. Data will be entered into the software program Vensim that provides a platform for visualizing system-structure and simulating the effects of adapting components. Finally, preliminary model validity testing will be conducted to provide insights on model generalizability and sensitivity. Expected Impact of the study for Public Health. The proposed methodology will create a SDM of the RTW process using feedback relationships of influential components. It will also provide an important simulation tool to understand system behaviour that underlies complex RTW cases, and examine anticipated and unanticipated consequences of disability management policies.

  5. Modeling Non-Standard Financial Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.D. Potter van Loon (Rogier)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstractThere are clear theoretical predictions on how a rational person should make financial decisions. When real-life choices are made, however, people often deviate from what economic theory prescribes. This thesis investigates the modeling of non-standard financial decision making by an

  6. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  7. The influence of interdisciplinary collaboration on decision making: a framework to analyse stakeholder coalitions, evolution and learning in strategic delta planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermoolen, Myrthe; Hermans, Leon

    2015-04-01

    The sustained development of urbanizing deltas requires that conflicting interests are reconciled, in an environment characterized by technical complexity and knowledge limitations. However, integrating ideas and establishing cooperation between actors with different backgrounds and roles still proves a challenge. Agreeing on strategic choices is difficult and implementation of agreed plans may lead to unanticipated and unintended outcomes. How can individual disciplinary perspectives come together and establish a broadly-supported and well-informed plan, the implementation of which contributes to sustainable delta development? The growing recognition of this need to bring together different stakeholders and different disciplinary perspectives runs parallel to a paradigm shift from 'hard' hydrological engineering to multi-functional and more 'soft' hydrological engineering in water management. As a result, there is now more attention for interdisciplinary collaboration that not only takes the physical characteristics of water systems into account, but also the interaction between physical and societal components of these systems. Thus, it is important to study interdisciplinary collaboration and how this influences decision-making. Our research looks into this connection, using a case in delta planning in the Netherlands, where there have been several (attempts for) integration of spatial planning and flood risk/ water management, e.g. in the case of the Dutch Delta Programme. This means that spatial designers and their designs play an important role in the strategic delta planning process as well, next to civil engineers, etc. This study explores the roles of stakeholders, experts and policy makers in interdisciplinary decision-making in dynamic delta planning processes, using theories and methods that focus on coalitions, learning and changes over time in policy and planning processes. This requires an expansion of the existing frameworks to study

  8. Job Aiding/Training Decision Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-09-01

    I[ -, . 1’, oo Ii AL-CR-i1992-0004 AD-A256 947lEE = IIEI ifl ll 1l I JOB AIDING/TRAINING DECISION PROCESS MODEL A R M John P. Zenyuh DTIC S Phillip C...March 1990 - April 1990 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS C - F33615-86-C-0545 Job Aiding/Training Decision Process Model PE - 62205F PR - 1121 6...Components to Process Model Decision and Selection Points ........... 32 13. Summary of Subject Recommendations for Aiding Approaches

  9. Building a stakeholder's vision of an offshore wind-farm project: A group modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi; Chen, Hsin; Ko, Tsung-Ting

    2012-03-15

    This paper describes a Group Model Building (GMB) initiative that was designed to discuss the various potential effects that an offshore wind-farm may have on its local ecology and socioeconomic development. The representatives of various organizations in the study area, Lu-Kang, Taiwan, have held several meetings, and structured debates have been organized to promote the emergence of a consensual view on the main issues and their implications. A System Dynamics (SD) model has been built and corrected iteratively with the participants through the GMB process. The diverse interests within the group led the process toward the design of multifunctional wind-farms with different modalities. The scenario analyses, using the SD model under various policies, including no wind-farm policy, objectively articulates the vision of the local stakeholders. The results of the SD simulations show that the multifunctional wind-farms may have superior economic effects and the larger wind-farms with bird corridors could reduce ecological impact. However, the participants of the modeling process did not appreciate any type of offshore wind-farm development when considering all of the identified key factors of social acceptance. The insight gained from the study can provide valuable information to actualize feasible strategies for the green energy technique to meet local expectations.

  10. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    compensation value of a human life and a public money equivalent of a human life, where the last value usually is considerably larger than the first value, it is possible from the decision analysis to determine an upper limit that the public should impose on the ratio of the owner´s expected loss rate......) that combines wealth in terms of Gross Domestic Product per person, life expectancy at birth, and yearly work time into a single number. The philosophy behind the published evaluations is that the prevention of a loss of a life is counteracted by a cost such that the LQI remains unchanged (Skjong R, Ronold K......; Decision Analysis; Life quality index; Random interest rate; Risk aversion; Socio-economic value; Uncertainty aversion...

  11. Support System Model for Value based Group Decision on Roof System Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A group decision support system is required on a value-based decision because there are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. It is to enable each decision-maker to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with other decision-makers. Stakeholder of multi-criteria decision making problems usually evaluates the alternative solution from different perspective, making it possible to have a dominant solution among the alternatives. Each stakeholder needs to identify the goals that can be optimized and those that can be compromised in order to reach an agreement with other stakeholders. This paper presents group decision model involving three decision-makers on the selection of suitable system for a building’s roof. The objective of the research is to find an agreement options model and coalition algorithms for multi person decision with two main preferences of value which are function and cost. The methodology combines value analysis method using Function Analysis System Technique (FAST; Life Cycle Cost analysis, group decision analysis method based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP in a satisfying options, and Game theory-based agent system to develop agreement option and coalition formation for the support system. The support system bridges theoretical gap between automated design in construction domain and automated negotiation in information technology domain by providing a structured methodology which can lead to systematic support system and automated negotiation. It will contribute to value management body of knowledge as an advanced method for creativity and analysis phase, since the practice of this knowledge is teamwork based. In the case of roof system selection, it reveals the start of the first negotiation round. Some of the solutions are not an option because no individual stakeholder or coalition of stakeholders desires to select it. The result indicates

  12. Kantian Capitalism and the Stakeholder Model: the necessity of a corporate ethics of justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Francés Gómez

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholder theory is the main-stream way of conceiving organizations, especially for profit corporations. Corporations are described as a web of stakeholders before whom managers have a multi-fiduciary responsibility. Edward Freeman, the father of stakeholder theory, holds that a normative theory of stakeholder management would set those fiduciary responsibilities as truly moral duties, due to the fact that stakeholders possess intrinsic, as opposed to merely instrumental, value. This article criticizes the basis of Freeman’s defense of normative stakeholder theory. The crucial critical argument is that Freeman employs the very same normative foundation that the classic theory of the firm uses; while deriving a view of the corporation that is less precise than the classic one. As an alternative, it is proposed that the organization should be conceived as a realm for justice: a social context of interaction where all parties would find it rational to agree to criteria for distributing the benefits so that cooperation –as required to bring about those benefits– is secured. This approach founds obligations (among stakeholders without the need to resort to hypothesis as individual dignity or rights. However, the demands of justice might still be operationalized as rights of several kinds.

  13. Kantian Capitalism and the Stakeholder Model: the necessity of a corporate ethics of justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Francés Gómez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholder theory is the main-stream way of conceiving organizations, especially for profit corporations. Corporations are described as a web of stakeholders before whom managers have a multi-fiduciary responsibility. Edward Freeman, the father of stakeholder theory, holds that a normative theory of stakeholder management would set those fiduciary responsibilities as truly moral duties, due to the fact that stakeholders possess intrinsic, as opposed to merely instrumental, value. This article criticizes the basis of Freeman’s defense of normative stakeholder theory. The crucial critical argument is that Freeman employs the very same normative foundation that the classic theory of the firm uses; while deriving a view of the corporation that is less precise than the classic one. As an alternative, it is proposed that the organization should be conceived as a realm for justice: a social context of interaction where all parties would find it rational to agree to criteria for distributing the benefits so that cooperation –as required to bring about those benefits– is secured. This approach founds obligations (among stakeholders without the need to resort to hypothesis as individual dignity or rights. However, the demands of justice might still be operationalized as rights of several kinds.

  14. Theory-Based Stakeholder Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Vedung, Evert

    2010-01-01

    This article introduces a new approach to program theory evaluation called theory-based stakeholder evaluation or the TSE model for short. Most theory-based approaches are program theory driven and some are stakeholder oriented as well. Practically, all of the latter fuse the program perceptions of the various stakeholder groups into one unitary…

  15. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  16. 涉众为中心的敏捷需求建模%Stakeholder-Centered Agile Requirements Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张国生

    2012-01-01

    Present a stakeholder-centered and agile requirements modeling methodology. All software system requirements are gathered from stakeholder-centered methodology. Stakeholders' priorities are decided by the Power/Interest distributed map based on stakeholder extended characteristics. Requirements confliction in stakeholders are solved by priority. Agile requirements practice methodology is presented according to stakeholder-centered agile requirements methodology. It involves short cyclic,evolution,increment,iteration,refractory and feedback of agile methodology,makes software system requirements more complete,exact,efficient and shortcut. The formal requirements model is constructed with DTPN for the methodology. It presents a new methodology for%提出一种将涉众为中心和敏捷方法有机结合的敏捷需求建模方法.所有软件系统需求获取以涉众为中心,基于涉众扩展特征建立涉众Power/Interest分布图来确定涉众优先级,并用优先级处理不同涉众之间的需求冲突,根据涉众为中心的敏捷需求方法,提出敏捷需求实践方法,融合敏捷方法的短周期、演化、增量、迭代、重构、反馈机制,使软件系统需求建模过程更加完备、精确、高效、快捷,用双变迁Petri网DTPN为该方法建立形式化敏捷需求模型,为软件系统需求建模提出了一种新的方法.

  17. Knowledge Management in Sustainability Research Projects: Concepts, Effective Models, and Examples in a Multi-Stakeholder Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, David Brian; Köhler, Thomas; Weith, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to sketch a conceptual design for an information and knowledge management system in sustainability research projects. The suitable frameworks to implement knowledge transfer models constitute social communities, because the mutual exchange and learning processes among all stakeholders promote key sustainable developments through…

  18. Transparency about net neutrality : A translation of the new European rules into a multi-stakeholder model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooren, P.; Prins, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    The new European framework directive contains a number of policy objectives in the area of net neutrality. In support of these objectives, the universal service directive includes a transparency obligation for ISPs. This paper proposes a multi-stakeholder model for the implementation of this transpa

  19. Knowledge Management in Sustainability Research Projects: Concepts, Effective Models, and Examples in a Multi-Stakeholder Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, David Brian; Köhler, Thomas; Weith, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to sketch a conceptual design for an information and knowledge management system in sustainability research projects. The suitable frameworks to implement knowledge transfer models constitute social communities, because the mutual exchange and learning processes among all stakeholders promote key sustainable developments through…

  20. Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gruenwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

  1. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  2. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  3. Development of a model to guide decision making in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis multidisciplinary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogden, Anne; Greenfield, David; Nugus, Peter; Kiernan, Matthew C

    2015-10-01

    Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) face numerous decisions for symptom management and quality of life. Models of decision making in chronic disease and cancer care are insufficient for the complex and changing needs of patients with ALS . The aim was to examine the question: how can decision making that is both effective and patient-centred be enacted in ALS multidisciplinary care? Fifty-four respondents (32 health professionals, 14 patients and eight carers) from two specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinics participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed thematically. Comparison of stakeholder perspectives revealed six key themes of ALS decision making. These were the decision-making process; patient-centred focus; timing and planning; information sources; engagement with specialized ALS services; and access to non-specialized services. A model, embedded in the specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinic, was derived to guide patient decision making. The model is cyclic, with four stages: 'Participant Engagement'; 'Option Information'; 'Option Deliberation'; and 'Decision Implementation'. Effective and patient-centred decision making is enhanced by the structure of the specialized ALS clinic, which promotes patients' symptom management and quality of life goals. However, patient and carer engagement in ALS decision making is tested by the dynamic nature of ALS, and patient and family distress. Our model optimizes patient-centred decision making, by incorporating patients' cyclic decision-making patterns and facilitating carer inclusion in decision processes. The model captures the complexities of patient-centred decision making in ALS. The framework can assist patients and carers, health professionals, researchers and policymakers in this challenging disease environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    2000-01-01

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  5. A Stakeholder-Based System Dynamics Model of Return-to-Work: A Research Protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Fish, Jon; Jeffries, Susan; Hettinger, Lawrence J

    2015-07-16

    Returning to work following a job-related injury or illness can be a complex process, influenced by a range of interrelated personal, psychosocial, and organizational components. System dynamics modelling (SDM) takes a sociotechnical systems perspective to view return-to-work (RTW) as a system made up of multiple feedback relationships between influential components. To build the RTW SDM, a mixed-method approach will be used. The first stage, that has already been completed, involved creating a baseline model using key informant interviews. Second, in two manufacturing companies, stakeholder-based models will be developed through interviews and focus groups with senior management, frontline workers, and frontline supervisors. Participants will be asked about the RTW process in general and more targeted questions regarding influential components. Participants will also be led through a reference mode exercise where they will be asked to estimate the direction, shape and magnitude of relationships between influential components. Data will be entered into the software program Vensim that provides a platform for visualizing system-structure and simulating the effects of adapting components. Finally, preliminary model validity testing will be conducted to provide insights on model generalizability and sensitivity. The proposed methodology will create a SDM of the RTW process using feedback relationships of influential components. It will also provide an important simulation tool to understand system behaviour that underlies complex RTW cases, and examine anticipated and unanticipated consequences of disability management policies. Significance for public healthWhile the incidence of occupational injuries and illnesses has declined over the past two decades, the proportion resulting in sickness absence has actually increased. Implementing strategies to address sickness absences and promote return-to-work (RTW) can significantly benefit physical and mental health, and

  6. Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shaojun; Wang Gang; Lü Min; Gao Guoan

    2008-01-01

    To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique (PERT), some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm (GA) based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.

  7. An Integrated Model for Optimization Oriented Decision Aiding and Rule Based Decision Making in Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yousefli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a fuzzy decision aid system is developed base on new concepts that presented in the field of fuzzy decision making in fuzzy environment (FDMFE. This framework aids decision makers to understand different circumstances of an uncertain problem that may occur in the future. Also, to keep decision maker from the optimization problem complexities, a decision support system, which can be replaced by optimization problem, is presented to make optimum or near optimum decisions without solving optimization problem directly. An application of the developed decision aid model and the decision support system is presented in the field of inventory models.

  8. Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration in Russian and Swedish Model Forest Initiatives: Adaptive Governance Toward Sustainable Forest Management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Elbakidze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Building the adaptive capacity of interlinked social and ecological systems is assumed to improve implementation of sustainable forest management (SFM policies. One mechanism is collaborative learning by continuous evaluation, communication, and transdisciplinary knowledge production. The Model Forest (MF concept, developed in Canada, is intended to encourage all dimensions of sustainable development through collaboration among stakeholders of forest resources in a geographical area. Because the MF approach encompasses both social and ecological systems, it can be seen as a process aimed at improving adaptive capacity to deal with uncertainty and change. We analyzed multi-stakeholder approaches used in four MF initiatives representing social-ecological systems with different governance legacies and economic histories in the northwest of the Russian Federation (Komi MF and Pskov MF and in Sweden (Vilhelmina MF and the Foundation Säfsen Forests in the Bergslagen region. To describe the motivations behind development of the initiative and the governance systems, we used qualitative open-ended interviews and analyzed reports and official documents. The initial driving forces for establishing new local governance arrangements were different in all four cases. All MFs were characterized by multi-level and multi-sector collaboration. However, the distribution of power among stakeholders ranged from clearly top down in the Russian Federation to largely bottom up in Sweden. All MF initiatives shared three main challenges: (a to develop governance arrangements that include representative actors and stakeholders, (b to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to governance, and (c to coordinate different sectors' modes of landscape governance. We conclude that, in principle, the MF concept is a promising approach to multi-stakeholder collaboration. However, to understand the local and regional dimensions of sustainability, and the level of adaptability

  9. Participatory modeling to support gender equality : The importance of including stakeholders in interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleijenbergh, I.L.; van Engen, Marloes

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Interventions to support gender equality in organisations are often unsuccessful. Stakeholders disagree about the causes and problem definition of gender equality or pay lip service to the principle of gender equality, but fail to implement gender equality in practice. The purpose of this

  10. Participatory modeling to support gender equality: The importance of including stakeholders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleijenbergh, I.L.; Engen, M. van

    2015-01-01

    - Purpose – Interventions to support gender equality in organisations are often unsuccessful. Stakeholders disagree about the causes and problem definition of gender equality or pay lip service to the principle of gender equality, but fail to implement gender equality in practice. The purpose of

  11. Reactive or proactive approach towards sustainability? A conceptual framework based on sustainable business models to increase stakeholders' sustainable value capture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosati, Francesco; Morioka, Sandra; Monteiro de Carvalho, Marly;

    for the various actors in society. This is also valid for organizations, which are expected to assume a more proactive and entrepreneurial posture towards tackling sustainable development challenges. In this sense, sustainable business model approach can support organizations to be more sustainable, serving...... were not expecting or demanding, but that are positive in terms of sustainability. The proactive approach on managing stakeholders finds its justification on questioning companies about their institutional role in society, demanding sustainability innovation in companies' business models...... and challenging companies to seek for business opportunities with an entrepreneurial attitude to help solving sustainable development challenges. By combining both approaches, organizations have the opportunity to increase sustainable value capture by its stakeholders, acting on their institutional responsibility...

  12. Who to Blame: Irrational Decision-Makers or Stupid Modelers? (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Kaveh

    2016-04-01

    Water management benefits from a suite of modelling tools and techniques that help simplifying and understanding the complexities involved in managing water resource systems. Early water management models were mainly concerned with optimizing a single objective, related to the design, operations or management of water resource systems (e.g. economic cost, hydroelectricity production, reliability of water deliveries). Significant improvements in methodologies, computational capacity, and data availability over the last decades have resulted in developing more complex water management models that can now incorporate multiple objectives, various uncertainties, and big data. These models provide an improved understanding of complex water resource systems and provide opportunities for making positive impacts. Nevertheless, there remains an alarming mismatch between the optimal solutions developed by these models and the decisions made by managers and stakeholders of water resource systems. Modelers continue to consider decision makers as irrational agents who fail to implement the optimal solutions developed by sophisticated and mathematically rigours water management models. On the other hand, decision makers and stakeholders accuse modelers of being idealist, lacking a perfect understanding of reality, and developing 'smart' solutions that are not practical (stable). In this talk I will have a closer look at the mismatch between the optimality and stability of solutions and argue that conventional water resources management models suffer inherently from a full-cooperation assumption. According to this assumption, water resources management decisions are based on group rationality where in practice decisions are often based on individual rationality, making the group's optimal solution unstable for individually rational decision makers. I discuss how game theory can be used as an appropriate framework for addressing the irrational "rationality assumption" of water

  13. A warehouse design decision model: case study

    OpenAIRE

    Geraldes, Carla A. S. (Ed.); Carvalho, Maria do Sameiro; Pereira, Guilherme

    2008-01-01

    Today’s competitive and volatile market requires flexibility, quality and efficiency from the logistics operations. In this context, warehouses are an important link of the logistic chain and warehouse management plays an important role over customer's service. Throughout this work we analyze a mathematical model aiming to support warehouse management decisions. A case study is used for that purpose and the model jointly identifies product allocation to the functional areas in the warehouse, ...

  14. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  15. Stakeholder Dissonance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2016-01-01

    within the Danish water sector from a general trust-breakdown to trust recovery from 2003 to 2013. Trust recovery is found to depend on stakeholders’ mutual engagement with each other and their willingness to share knowledge and learn from each other’s professional and institutional cultures...... and languages. An alignment of vocabularies of motives between regulation and voluntary CSR is found to be useful for building trust between conflicting parties. Furthermore the findings shows that the more stakeholders’ languages, motives and logics can coexist, the more trust can be recovered. The research....... This chapter suggests a theoretical extension of Bogenschneider and Corbett’s (2010) Community Dissonance Theory to embrace multiple stakeholders each having their own complex and unique culture and communication modus based on their institutional, professional or individual comprehensive language universes...

  16. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  17. Using Modularity with Rough Decision Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed T. Shawky; Hesham A. Hefny; Ashraf H. Abd-Elwahab

    2012-01-01

    Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for new techniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques are the most appropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computing techniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problems without explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy s...

  18. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  19. Integrating Environmental and Stakeholder Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2001-01-01

    Regulation has been an important instrument in pushing the business community towards im-proved environmental performance. However, there has also been increasing pressure from a growing number of stakeholders, including employees, customers, neighbours and NGOs, etc. In order to improve corporate...... relationships with various stakeholders, companies need to be able to identify these stakeholders and assess their influence. The first part of this paper will discuss the relevant theory and introduce a model to analyse and identify the most significant stakeholder groups and their influence on corporate...

  20. Stakeholder participation in health impact assessment: A multicultural approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negev, Maya, E-mail: mayane@tau.ac.il [Hartog School of Government and Policy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O.B. 39040, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel); Davidovitch, Nadav, E-mail: nadavd@bgu.ac.il [Department of Health Systems Management, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University, P.O.B. 653, Be' er Sheva 84105 (Israel); Garb, Yaakov, E-mail: ygarb@bgu.ac.il [Swiss Institute for Dryland Environmental Research, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer 84990 (Israel); Tal, Alon, E-mail: alontal@bgu.ac.il [Mitrani Department of Dryland Ecology, Swiss Institute for Dryland Environmental Research, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer 84990 (Israel)

    2013-11-15

    The literature on impact assessment (HIA) registers the importance of stakeholder participation in the assessment process, but still lacks a model for engaging stakeholders of diverse ethnic, professional and sectorial backgrounds. This paper suggests that the multicultural approach can contribute to HIA through a revision of the generic 5-step HIA model, and its implementation in a metropolitan plan in Southern Israel. The health issue scoped by the stakeholders in the HIA is related to land uses in the vicinity of the national hazardous industry and hazardous waste site. The stakeholders were representatives of the diverse populations at stake, including rural Bedouins and Jewish city dwellers, as well as representatives from the public sector, private sector, non-governmental organizations and academia. The case study revealed that a multicultural stakeholder participation process helps to uncover health issues known to the community which were not addressed in the original plan, and provides local knowledge regarding health conditions that is especially valuable when scientific data is uncertain or absent. It enables diverse stakeholders to prioritize the health issues that will be assessed. The case study also reveals ways in which the model needs revisions and improvements such as in recruitment of diverse participants. This paper presents a multicultural model of HIA and discusses some of the challenges that are faced when HIA is implemented in the context of current decision-making culture. -- Highlights: • We revised the generic HIA model in light of the multicultural approach. • We tested the model in a case study of zoning a hazardous industry site. • Multicultural stakeholder participation uncovers health issues known to communities. • It enables community prioritization of health issues. • We present a model for multicultural stakeholder participation in HIA.

  1. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Numerous design decisions are made while developing software systems, which influence the architecture of these systems as well as following decisions. A number of decision management tools already exist for capturing, documenting, and maintaining design decisions, but also for guiding developers...... the development process. In this report, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from a case study: the modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow its users to extend or update them; the decision management tool shall...... trigger the modeling tool to realize design decisions in the models. We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these use cases and present how they can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless...

  2. Clinical Productivity System - A Decision Support Model

    CERN Document Server

    Bennett, Casey C

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of a data-driven clinical productivity system that leverages Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to provide productivity decision support functionality in a real-world clinical setting. The system was implemented for a large behavioral health care provider seeing over 75,000 distinct clients a year. Design/methodology/approach: The key metric in this system is a "VPU", which simultaneously optimizes multiple aspects of clinical care. The resulting mathematical value of clinical productivity was hypothesized to tightly link the organization's performance to its expectations and, through transparency and decision support tools at the clinician level, affect significant changes in productivity, quality, and consistency relative to traditional models of clinical productivity. Findings: In only 3 months, every single variable integrated into the VPU system showed significant improvement, including a 30% rise in revenue, 10% rise in clinical percentage, a...

  3. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  4. Assessing medical student knowledge and attitudes about shared decision making across the curriculum: protocol for an international online survey and stakeholder analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Marie-Anne; Yen, Renata; Barr, Paul J; Cochran, Nan; Aarts, Johanna; Légaré, France; Reed, Malcolm; James O'Malley, A; Scalia, Peter; Painchaud Guérard, Geneviève; Elwyn, Glyn

    2017-06-23

    Shared decision making (SDM) is a goal of modern medicine; however, it is not currently embedded in routine care. Barriers include clinicians’ attitudes, lack of knowledge and training and time constraints. Our goal is to support the development and delivery of a robust SDM curriculum in medical education. Our objective is to assess undergraduate medical students’ knowledge of and attitudes towards SDM in four countries. The first phase of the study involves a web-based cross-sectional survey of undergraduate medical students from all years in selected schools across the United States (US), Canada and undergraduate and graduate students in the Netherlands. In the United Kingdom (UK), the survey will be circulated to all medical schools through the UK Medical School Council. We will sample students equally in all years of training and assess attitudes towards SDM, knowledge of SDM and participation in related training. Medical students of ages 18 years and older in the four countries will be eligible. The second phase of the study will involve semistructured interviews with a subset of students from phase 1 and a convenience sample of medical school curriculum experts or stakeholders. Data will be analysed using multivariable analysis in phase 1 and thematic content analysis in phase 2. Method, data source and investigator triangulation will be performed. Online survey data will be reported according to the Checklist for Reporting the Results of Internet E-Surveys. We will use the COnsolidated criteria for REporting Qualitative research for all qualitative data. The study has been approved for dissemination in the US, the Netherlands, Canada and the UK. The study is voluntary with an informed consent process. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will help inform the inclusion of SDM-specific curriculum in medical education worldwide. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  5. "Good idea but not feasible" – the views of decision makers and stakeholders towards strategies for better palliative care in Germany: a representative survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider Nils

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statements on potential measures to improve palliative care in Germany predominantly reflect the points of view of experts from specialized palliative care organizations. By contrast, relatively little is known about the views of representatives of organizations and institutions that do not explicitly specialize in palliative care, but are involved to a relevant extent in the decision-making and policy-making processes. Therefore, for the first time in Germany, we carried out a representative study of the attitudes of a broad range of different stakeholders acting at the national or state level of the health care system. Methods 442 organizations and institutions were included and grouped as follows: patient organizations, nursing organizations, medical associations, specialized palliative care organizations, political institutions, health insurance funds and others. Using a standardized questionnaire, the participants were asked to rate their agreement with the World Health Organization's definition of palliative care (five-point scale: 1 = completely agree, 5 = completely disagree and to evaluate 18 pre-selected improvement measures with regard to their general meaningfulness and the feasibility of their introduction into the German health care system (two-point scale: 1 = good, 2 = poor. Results The response rate was 67%. Overall, the acceptance of the aims of palliative care in the WHO definition was strong. However, the level of agreement among health insurance funds' representatives was significantly less than that among representatives of the palliative care organizations. All the improvement measures selected for evaluation were rated significantly higher in respect of their meaningfulness than of their feasibility in Germany. In detail, the meaningfulness of 16 measures was evaluated positively (70–100% participants chose the answer "good"; for six of these measures feasibility was evaluated negatively (0–30

  6. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  7. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    to enforce design decisions (modify the models). We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these requirements and present first ideas how this can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless integration......Numerous design decisions including architectural decisions are made while developing a software system, which influence the architecture of the system as well as subsequent decisions. Several tools already exist for managing design decisions, i.e. capturing, documenting, and maintaining them......, but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...

  8. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  9. Risk transfer modeling among hierarchically associated stakeholders in development of space systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkle, Thomas Grove, III

    Research develops an empirically derived cardinal model that prescribes handling and transfer of risks between organizations with hierarchical relationships. Descriptions of mission risk events, risk attitudes, and conditions for risk transfer are determined for client and underwriting entities associated with acquisition, production, and deployment of space systems. The hypothesis anticipates that large client organizations should be able to assume larger dollar-value risks of a program in comparison to smaller organizations even though many current risk transfer arrangements via space insurance violate this hypothesis. A literature survey covers conventional and current risk assessment methods, current techniques used in the satellite industry for complex system development, cardinal risk modeling, and relevant aspects of utility theory. Data gathered from open literature on demonstrated launch vehicle and satellite in-orbit reliability, annual space insurance premiums and losses, and ground fatalities and range damage associated with satellite launch activities are presented. Empirically derived models are developed for risk attitudes of space system clients and third-party underwriters associated with satellite system development and deployment. Two application topics for risk transfer are examined: the client-underwriter relationship on assumption or transfer of risks associated with first-year mission success, and statutory risk transfer agreements between space insurance underwriters and the US government to promote growth in both commercial client and underwriting industries. Results indicate that client entities with wealth of at least an order of magnitude above satellite project costs should retain risks to first-year mission success despite present trends. Furthermore, large client entities such as the US government should never pursue risk transfer via insurance under previously demonstrated probabilities of mission success; potential savings may

  10. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice ‘an

  11. How Stakeholder Co-management Reproduces Conservation Conflicts: Revealing Rationality Problems in Swedish Wolf Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica von Essen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available 'Stakeholder' has become the primary category of political actor in decision-making, not least within nature conservation. Drawing from Habermas' theory on communicative action, this article argues that there are democratic deficits to the stakeholder model that promote citizens to remain locked in predetermined, polarized positions. It contends that the stakeholder model must, hence, be scrutinized with respect to its potential role in perpetuating conservation conflicts in modernity. Using the case study of stakeholder-based game management delegations (GMDs in Sweden, our research identifies four barriers, which tie to the instrumental basis and liberal democratic legacy of the stakeholder approach: 1 strong sense of accountability; 2 overly purposive atmosphere; 3 overemphasis on decision as final outcome; and 4 perceived inability on the part of the delegates to influence science-led decision-making. The article suggests that these democratic deficits preclude the deliberation and contestation necessary to legitimate conservation policy. Indeed, stakeholder rationality causes citizens to become inert, instrumental agents who approach discussion with strategic rather than communicative rationality. We conclude that the deficits of the stakeholder model currently: 1 restrict democratic freedom for citizens; 2 engender a crisis of legitimacy of management; and 3 reproduce the conflict, which in Sweden relates to the conservation of wolves.

  12. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  13. What "they" Think: Perspectives of Stakeholders Contributing to the Co-Production of Climate Change Impact Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnott, J. C.; Kirchhoff, C.

    2016-12-01

    Co-production, a theory of and approach to knowledge production that accommodates joint effort between scientists and non-scientists in one or more stages of research process, is increasingly identified as a strategy to improve the usability of global change research. However, little research has been done to obtain perspectives of non-scientist participants that contribute to coproduced research projects on the process of co-production itself. The result is that it is often unclear if coproduced research achieves its intended objectives for stakeholders that contribute to it. An added irony is that designs and approaches to co-production often do not in themselves reflect input from non-scientist participants. To meet this gap, this paper reports on an analysis of semi-structured interviews of practitioners that participated in a NOAA-funded study addressing the impacts of climate change on harmful algal blooms in the Western Lake Erie Basin. The interviews solicited responses from these participants about their motivation for participating in the project, the impact to their work as a result of participation, and their suggestions for how to improve the experience in the future. Results indicate that non-scientist participants in research projects possess a very broad range of reasons for participation and a diverse set of attitudes about their experiences and perceived benefits. These findings should add evidence of and perspective to a growing area of recognition that information end-users (e.g., stakeholders, practitioners, decision-makers) are not a homogenous set of actors, and therefore strategies for engaging with them on knowledge production need to adjust accordingly. We reflect on these findings to conclude that future co-production efforts would be better served by considering the work of co-production as more than just bringing together two different but internally similar communities (e.g., "scientists" and "stakeholders") and instead treating its

  14. Statistical Decision-Tree Models for Parsing

    CERN Document Server

    Magerman, D M

    1995-01-01

    Syntactic natural language parsers have shown themselves to be inadequate for processing highly-ambiguous large-vocabulary text, as is evidenced by their poor performance on domains like the Wall Street Journal, and by the movement away from parsing-based approaches to text-processing in general. In this paper, I describe SPATTER, a statistical parser based on decision-tree learning techniques which constructs a complete parse for every sentence and achieves accuracy rates far better than any published result. This work is based on the following premises: (1) grammars are too complex and detailed to develop manually for most interesting domains; (2) parsing models must rely heavily on lexical and contextual information to analyze sentences accurately; and (3) existing {$n$}-gram modeling techniques are inadequate for parsing models. In experiments comparing SPATTER with IBM's computer manuals parser, SPATTER significantly outperforms the grammar-based parser. Evaluating SPATTER against the Penn Treebank Wall ...

  15. Dynamic Socio-technical System Design based on Stakeholder Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Fleischmann

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to directly involve stakeholders in socio-technical system design, we argue for streamlining executable process specifications with business process modeling. Due to current agility requirements of organizations, socio-technical system development is considered one of the key activities of members of the organizations. Dynamic process adaptation enable handling the volatility of business operation and IT infrastructure. Subject-oriented process representations are key enablers to dynamic adaptation due to their capability for stakeholders to create directly executable models. In this way stakeholder can be involved in change management pro-actively. Subject-oriented models (i represent all relevant features required for system control and decision making, and (ii are executable on demand. This effectiveness enables organizational change in a creative and efficient way, while establishing innovative design and change management tools. Subject-oriented Business Process Management capabilities are reflected in this realm revealing benefits and potential for further research.

  16. Conceptual models and sustainable groundwater resource indicators as transfer tools to stakeholders of the Lake Champlain transboundary aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, René; Rivard, Christine; Carrier, Marc-André; Parent, Michel; Laurencelle, Marc; Beaudry, Châtelaine; Martin, Alex; Bleser, Joshua; Lavoie, Roxane; Bourque, Édith; Ouellet, Michel

    2016-04-01

    Regional aquifer assessments produce a wealth of scientific and technical information that is essential for the sound management of groundwater resources. However, regional water stakeholders are not generally groundwater specialists and cannot be expected to readily handle specialized hydrogeological maps and data. Without efficient information transfer, groundwater resources cannot be adequately considered in water governance by watershed organizations and in land-use planning by regional municipalities. This presentation provides an overview of the efforts undertaken to transfer information as part of a four-year regional aquifer assessment in the transboundary Canada-USA Champlain Lake watershed, with an emphasis on the southern Quebec part. This project was part of both the provincial aquifer assessment program (Programme d'acquisition des connaissances sur les eaux souterraines, PACES) of the Quebec Environment Ministry and the National inventory of regional key aquifers of Natural Resources Canada. In Quebec, the study area extends over 9 000 km2 and includes three major watersheds and 106 municipalities with 792 000 inhabitants. Five distinct hydrogeological contexts were defined based on bedrock geology and hydrogeological conditions: St. Lawrence Lowlands (North and South), Appalachian Piedmont, Appalachian Uplands, and Monteregian Hills. Extensive fieldwork filled knowledge and spatial data gaps identified during the compilation of existing data. To illustrate hydrogeological contexts, two conceptual models of different areas were developed. These conceptual models reflect three aspects of aquifer conditions: geological context, groundwater dynamics and groundwater quality. The first representation of the conceptual model presents the geological context including typical surficial geology units as well as major bedrock geology units (including faults and dykes). The second representation shows schematic groundwater flow paths, relative well yields of

  17. Using ecosystem services in decision-making to support sustainable development: Critiques, model development, a case study, and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagonari, Fabio

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, I propose a general, consistent, and operational approach that accounts for ecosystem services in a decision-making context: I link ecosystem services to sustainable development criteria; adopt multi-criteria analysis to measure ecosystem services, with weights provided by stakeholders used to account for equity issues; apply both temporal and spatial discount rates; and adopt a technique to order performance of the possible solutions based on their similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) to account for uncertainty about the parameters and functions. Applying this approach in a case study of an offshore research platform in Italy (CNR Acqua Alta) revealed that decisions depend non-linearly on the degree of loss aversion, to a smaller extent on a global focus (as opposed to a local focus), and to the smallest extent on social concerns (as opposed to economic or environmental concerns). Application of the general model to the case study leads to the conclusion that the ecosystem services framework is likely to be less useful in supporting decisions than in identifying the crucial features on which decisions depend, unless experts from different disciplines are involved, stakeholders are represented, and experts and stakeholders achieve mutual understanding.

  18. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  19. Theoretical bases of modeling decision-marketing solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Grigoruk Pavel Mikhaylovych

    2012-01-01

    The paper deals with issues related with theoretical aspects of modelling of marketing decision making process. According to system approach marketing decision making process is seen as a set of related subprocesses. Provided an opportunity to use the economic and mathematical modelling at each stage of the decision making process.

  20. Attributes of residents as teachers and role models - a mixed methods study of stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butani, Lavjay; Paterniti, Debora A; Tancredi, Daniel J; Li, Su-Ting T

    2013-04-01

    Residents are at the forefront of student education in the hospital, yet valid tools to assess their performance as teachers are lacking. To develop a valid evaluation tool for assessing resident performance as educators for clerkship students. A mixed-methods design was used. Focus groups of residents and medical students explored desired behaviors in resident educators. Using grounded theory, a list of behaviors was generated inductively through iterative review and categorized into themes. After thematic saturation, behaviors were rated on a Likert scale by stakeholders based on "importance" and "accuracy of measurement." Items which were both important and accurate were used in the final tool. Eighty-five desirable behaviors for resident educators were identified and consolidated into a 14-item tool. Twenty met both "importance" and "accuracy" criteria and fell under themes of respect, safe environment, balancing supervision with autonomy, relevant teaching and feedback. Nineteen "important" behaviors deemed not accurately measurable fell under themes of professionalism, communication, management skills and leadership. Evaluation of residents as teachers and development of resident-as-teacher curricula should emphasize aforementioned areas. Professionalism and organizational skills may not be measurable reliably by learners. Complementary tools to assess these aspects of resident performance are necessary.

  1. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  2. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  3. Conducting and Evaluating Stakeholder Workshops to Facilitate Updates to a Storm Surge Forecasting Model for Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLorme, D.; Lea, K.; Hagen, S. C.

    2016-12-01

    As coastal Louisiana evolves morphologically, ecologically, and from engineering advancements, there is a crucial need to continually adjust real-time forecasting and coastal restoration planning models. This presentation discusses planning, conducting, and evaluating stakeholder workshops to support such an endeavor. The workshops are part of an ongoing Louisiana Sea Grant-sponsored project. The project involves updating an ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) mesh representation of topography including levees and other flood control structures by applying previously-collected elevation data and new data acquired during the project. The workshops are designed to educate, solicit input, and ensure incorporation of topographic features into the framework is accomplished in the best interest of stakeholders. During this project's first year, three one-day workshops directed to levee managers and other local officials were convened at agricultural extension facilities in Hammond, Houma, and Lake Charles, Louisiana. The objectives were to provide a forum for participants to learn about the ADCIRC framework, understand the importance of accurate elevations for a robust surge model, discuss and identify additional data sources, and become familiar with the CERA (Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment) visualization tool. The workshop structure consisted of several scientific presentations with questions/answer time (ADCIRC simulation inputs and outputs; ADCIRC framework elevation component; description and examples of topographic features such as levees, roadways, railroads, etc. currently utilized in the mesh; ADCIRC model validation demonstration through historic event simulations; CERA demonstration), a breakout activity for participant groups to identify and discuss raised features not currently in the mesh and document them on provided worksheets, and a closing session for debriefing and discussion of future model improvements. Evaluation involved developing, and analyzing a

  4. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Building upon on the smoothness of the response of an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM to changes of four adjustable parameters, Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate the AGCM. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  5. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM around four adjustable parameters. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g. how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  6. [Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, W

    2000-01-01

    Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness.

  7. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  8. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    Yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  9. A control theory model for human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.

    1972-01-01

    The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

  10. Modeling decisions information fusion and aggregation operators

    CERN Document Server

    Torra, Vicenc

    2007-01-01

    Information fusion techniques and aggregation operators produce the most comprehensive, specific datum about an entity using data supplied from different sources, thus enabling us to reduce noise, increase accuracy, summarize and extract information, and make decisions. These techniques are applied in fields such as economics, biology and education, while in computer science they are particularly used in fields such as knowledge-based systems, robotics, and data mining. This book covers the underlying science and application issues related to aggregation operators, focusing on tools used in practical applications that involve numerical information. Starting with detailed introductions to information fusion and integration, measurement and probability theory, fuzzy sets, and functional equations, the authors then cover the following topics in detail: synthesis of judgements, fuzzy measures, weighted means and fuzzy integrals, indices and evaluation methods, model selection, and parameter extraction. The method...

  11. Decision models in designing flexible production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florescu Adriana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flexible production system is a complex whole that raise some issues in terms of its design and in relation to the conditions for implementing it. To implement a flexible production system configuration must be found that satisfies both economic and system performance requirements. The configuration which best meet the objectives of introducing a flexible production system must be sought in the set of alternatives defined and evaluated. In this paper we present a methodology of realising the configuration and complex evaluation of the analyzed system. It will be developed models which generate new alternative configurations, optimization and evaluation models of the performance of the flexible production system. This will create a framework for interactive decision support, user-oriented that can be used by management to solve this selection problem. The applicative character of the study consist in tracking of the technological process in real time using the developed software package on the designed system, based on mathematical models for configuration and optimization of the system.

  12. Increasing Social–Ecological Resilience by Placing Science at the Decision Table: the Role of the San Pedro Basin (Arizona Decision-Support System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Finan

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed how the collaborative development process of a decision-support system (DSS model can effectively contribute to increasing the resilience of regional social–ecological systems. In particular, we have focused on the case study of the transboundary San Pedro Basin, in the Arizona-Sonora desert region. This is a semi-arid watershed where water is a scarce resource used to cover competing human and environmental needs. We have outlined the essential traits in the development of the decision-support process that contributed to an improvement of water-resources management capabilities while increasing the potential for consensual problem solving. Comments and feedback from the stakeholders benefiting from the DSS in the San Pedro Basin are presented and analyzed within the regional (United States–Mexico boundary, social, and institutional context. We have indicated how multidisciplinary collaboration between academia and stakeholders can be an effective step toward collaborative management. Such technology transfer and capacity building provides a common arena for testing water-management policies and evaluating future scenarios. Putting science at the service of a participatory decision-making process can provide adaptive capacity to accommodate future change (i.e., building resilience in the management system.

  13. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent...

  14. Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management - Part 1: Model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

    2017-08-01

    Effective policies, leading to sustainable management solutions for land and water resources, require a full understanding of interactions between socio-economic and physical processes. However, the complex nature of these interactions, combined with limited stakeholder engagement, hinders the incorporation of socio-economic components into physical models. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socio-economic factors. A stepwise process to quantify the GBSDM is presented, along with governing equations and model assumptions. Sub-modules of the GBSDM, describing agricultural, economic, water and farm management factors, are linked together with feedbacks and finally coupled with the physically based SAHYSMOD model through commonly used tools (i.e., MS Excel and a Python script). The overall integrated model (GBSDM-SAHYSMOD) can be used to help facilitate the role of stakeholders with limited expertise and resources in model and policy development and implementation. Following the development of the integrated model, a testing methodology was used to validate the structure and behavior of the integrated model. Model robustness under different operating conditions was also assessed. The model structure was able to produce anticipated real behaviours under the tested scenarios, from which it can be concluded that the formulated structures generate the right behaviour for the right reasons.

  15. The study of prescriptive and descriptive models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok A Divekar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by examining the psychological factors that explain how managers deviate from rationality in responding to uncertainty.

  16. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  17. Modelling contractor’s bidding decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biruk Sławomir

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors aim to provide a set of tools to facilitate the main stages of the competitive bidding process for construction contractors. These involve 1 deciding whether to bid, 2 calculating the total price, and 3 breaking down the total price into the items of the bill of quantities or the schedule of payments to optimise contractor cash flows. To define factors that affect the decision to bid, the authors rely upon literature on the subject and put forward that multi-criteria methods are applied to calculate a single measure of contract attractiveness (utility value. An attractive contract implies that the contractor is likely to offer a lower price to increase chances of winning the competition. The total bid price is thus to be interpolated between the lowest acceptable and the highest justifiable price based on the contract attractiveness. With the total bid price established, the next step is to split it between the items of the schedule of payments. A linear programming model is proposed for this purpose. The application of the models is illustrated with a numerical example.

  18. Multiview coding mode decision with hybrid optimal stopping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tiesong; Kwong, Sam; Wang, Hanli; Wang, Zhou; Pan, Zhaoqing; Kuo, C-C Jay

    2013-04-01

    In a generic decision process, optimal stopping theory aims to achieve a good tradeoff between decision performance and time consumed, with the advantages of theoretical decision-making and predictable decision performance. In this paper, optimal stopping theory is employed to develop an effective hybrid model for the mode decision problem, which aims to theoretically achieve a good tradeoff between the two interrelated measurements in mode decision, as computational complexity reduction and rate-distortion degradation. The proposed hybrid model is implemented and examined with a multiview encoder. To support the model and further promote coding performance, the multiview coding mode characteristics, including predicted mode probability and estimated coding time, are jointly investigated with inter-view correlations. Exhaustive experimental results with a wide range of video resolutions reveal the efficiency and robustness of our method, with high decision accuracy, negligible computational overhead, and almost intact rate-distortion performance compared to the original encoder.

  19. Using ASCEM Modeling and Visualization to Inform Stakeholders of Contaminant Plume Evolution and Remediation Efficacy at F-Basin Savannah River, SC – 15156

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flach, G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wainwright, H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Molins, S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Arora, B. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faybishenko, B. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Krishnan, H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hubbard, S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Denham, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Eddy-Dilek, C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Moulton, D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lipnikov, K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Gable, C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Miller, T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Freshley, M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-01-28

    Communication with stakeholders, regulatory agencies, and the public is an essential part of implementing different remediation and monitoring activities, and developing site closure strategies at contaminated sites. Modeling of contaminant plume evolution plays a critical role in estimating the benefit, cost, and risk of particular options. At the same time, effective visualization of monitoring data and modeling results are particularly important for conveying the significance of the results and observations. In this paper, we present the results of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) project, including the discussion of the capabilities of newly developed ASCEM software package, along with its application to the F-Area Seepage Basins located in the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site (SRS). ASCEM software includes state-of-the-art numerical methods for simulating complex flow and reactive transport, as well as various toolsets such as a graphical user interface (GUI), visualization, data management, uncertainty quantification, and parameter estimation. Using this software, we have developed an advanced visualization of tritium plume migration coupled with a data management system, and simulated a three-dimensional model of flow and plume evolution on a high-performance computing platform. We evaluated the effect of engineered flow barriers on a nonreactive tritium plume, through advanced plume visualization and modeling of tritium plume migration. In addition, we developed a geochemical reaction network to describe complex geochemical processes at the site, and evaluated the impact of coupled hydrological and geochemical heterogeneity. These results are expected to support SRS’s monitoring activities and operational decisions.

  20. What are the communication challenges for politicians, experts and stakeholders in order to enhance transparency in nuclear waste management decisions? Report from a Team Syntegrity Meeting. The European Project RISCOM-II. Work Package 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Kjell [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden); Espejo, Raul [Syncho Ltd., Birmingham (United Kingdom); Wene, Clas-Otto [Wenergy, Lund (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    The Team Syntegrity Meeting is a special part of the project. It aims for increased awareness among key stakeholder groups in Europe about how nuclear waste decision processes should be developed in order to increase transparency and trust. Team Syntegrity is conducted with a special meeting format. The self-organisation of the meeting is a strong positive feature of the format. Instead of having a project leader setting the agenda, the participants formulate their own topics of relevance starting from an opening question. This report documents the meeting that was held in Lanaken, Belgium on 14-17 May 2002. The opening question for the meeting was: What are communication challenges for politicians, experts and stakeholders in order to enhance transparency in nuclear waste management decisions? There are different opinions about how communication on nuclear waste issues should be done. There are differences between stakeholder groups, and there are different approaches taken in various countries. Still it should be possible to reach a deeper understanding of social communications, that is, understanding the requirements to have effective communications between policy makers, experts and stakeholders. The aim was thus not to develop common views on the nuclear waste problem as such, but rather common grounds for developing procedures for effective communication. Hopefully, this meeting made some progress in this direction. The call for the Team Syntegrity (TS) Meeting resulted in 105 Statements of Importance given in Appendix 2. Following the TS format the meeting then formed its own agenda by first producing 30 Aggregated Statements of Importance (Appendix 3), which were grouped into 12 Consolidated Statements of Importance or topics. The group discussions were thus held under the twelve topics of: Consultation, communication and participation; Mutual learning; Roles and arenas; Heritage; Transparency; Wider context; Process; Risk; Institutional cultures

  1. What are the communication challenges for politicians, experts and stakeholders in order to enhance transparency in nuclear waste management decisions? Report from a Team Syntegrity Meeting. The European Project RISCOM-II. Work Package 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Kjell [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden); Espejo, Raul [Syncho Ltd., Birmingham (United Kingdom); Wene, Clas-Otto [Wenergy, Lund (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    The Team Syntegrity Meeting is a special part of the project. It aims for increased awareness among key stakeholder groups in Europe about how nuclear waste decision processes should be developed in order to increase transparency and trust. Team Syntegrity is conducted with a special meeting format. The self-organisation of the meeting is a strong positive feature of the format. Instead of having a project leader setting the agenda, the participants formulate their own topics of relevance starting from an opening question. This report documents the meeting that was held in Lanaken, Belgium on 14-17 May 2002. The opening question for the meeting was: What are communication challenges for politicians, experts and stakeholders in order to enhance transparency in nuclear waste management decisions? There are different opinions about how communication on nuclear waste issues should be done. There are differences between stakeholder groups, and there are different approaches taken in various countries. Still it should be possible to reach a deeper understanding of social communications, that is, understanding the requirements to have effective communications between policy makers, experts and stakeholders. The aim was thus not to develop common views on the nuclear waste problem as such, but rather common grounds for developing procedures for effective communication. Hopefully, this meeting made some progress in this direction. The call for the Team Syntegrity (TS) Meeting resulted in 105 Statements of Importance given in Appendix 2. Following the TS format the meeting then formed its own agenda by first producing 30 Aggregated Statements of Importance (Appendix 3), which were grouped into 12 Consolidated Statements of Importance or topics. The group discussions were thus held under the twelve topics of: Consultation, communication and participation; Mutual learning; Roles and arenas; Heritage; Transparency; Wider context; Process; Risk; Institutional cultures

  2. Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    restrictions are important in that nonadditive decision weights can be used to "explain" many anomalies of standard choice theory . Implications. There are...1974). On utility functions. Theory and Decision, 5, 205-242. Chew, S. H., & MacCrimmon, K. R. Alpha-nu choice theory : A generalization of expected

  3. Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pastoors, M.A.; Poos, J.J.; Kraak, S.B.M.; Machiels, M.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Simulations of management plans generally aim to demonstrate the robustness of the plans to assumptions about population dynamics and fleet dynamics. Such modelling is characterized by specification of an operating model (OM) representing the underlying truth and a management procedure that mimics t

  4. Decision tree modeling with relational views

    CERN Document Server

    Bentayeb, Fadila

    2002-01-01

    Data mining is a useful decision support technique that can be used to discover production rules in warehouses or corporate data. Data mining research has made much effort to apply various mining algorithms efficiently on large databases. However, a serious problem in their practical application is the long processing time of such algorithms. Nowadays, one of the key challenges is to integrate data mining methods within the framework of traditional database systems. Indeed, such implementations can take advantage of the efficiency provided by SQL engines. In this paper, we propose an integrating approach for decision trees within a classical database system. In other words, we try to discover knowledge from relational databases, in the form of production rules, via a procedure embedding SQL queries. The obtained decision tree is defined by successive, related relational views. Each view corresponds to a given population in the underlying decision tree. We selected the classical Induction Decision Tree (ID3) a...

  5. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  6. Clinical inferences and decisions--III. Utility assessment and the Bayesian decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinall, P A; Hill, A R

    1984-01-01

    It is accepted that errors of misclassifications, however small, can occur in clinical decisions but it cannot be assumed that the importance associated with false positive errors is the same as that for false negatives. The relative importance of these two types of error is frequently implied by a decision maker in the different weighting factors or utilities he assigns to the alternative consequences of his decisions. Formal procedures are available by which it is possible to make explicit in numerical form the value or worth of the outcome of a decision process. The two principal methods are described for generating utilities as associated with clinical decisions. The concept and application of utility is then expanded from a unidimensional to a multidimensional problem where, for example, one variable may be state of health and another monetary assets. When combined with the principles of subjective probability and test criterion selection outlined in Parts I and II of this series, the consequent use of utilities completes the framework upon which the general Bayesian model of clinical decision making is based. The five main stages in this general decision making model are described and applications of the model are illustrated with clinical examples from the field of ophthalmology. These include examples for unidimensional and multidimensional problems which are worked through in detail to illustrate both the principles and methodology involved in a rationalized normative model of clinical decision making behaviour.

  7. Review of models and actors in energy mix optimization – can leader visions and decisions align with optimum model strategies for our future energy systems?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijermars, R.; Taylor, P.; Bahn, O.; Das, S.R.; Wei, Y.M.

    2011-01-01

    Organizational behavior and stakeholder processes continually influence energy strategy choices and decisions. Although theoretical optimizations can provide guidance for energy mix decisions from a pure physical systems engineering point of view, these solutions might not be optimal from a politica

  8. Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management. Part 2: Model coupling and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

    2017-08-01

    Many simulation models focus on simulating a single physical process and do not constitute balanced representations of the physical, social and economic components of a system. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating a physical (P) model (SAHYSMOD) with a group (stakeholder) built system dynamics model (GBSDM) through a component modeling approach based on widely applied tools such as MS Excel, Python and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The coupled model (P-GBSDM) was applied to test soil salinity management scenarios (proposed by stakeholders) for the Haveli region of the Rechna Doab Basin in Pakistan. Scenarios such as water banking, vertical drainage, canal lining, and irrigation water reallocation were simulated with the integrated model. Spatiotemporal maps and economic and environmental trade-off criteria were used to examine the effectiveness of the selected management scenarios. After 20 years of simulation, canal lining reduced soil salinity by 22% but caused an initial reduction of 18% in farm income, which requires an initial investment from the government. The government-sponsored Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARP) is a short-term policy that resulted in a 37% increase in water availability with a 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on soil salinity in the long term, with a 21% increase in soil salinity due to secondary salinization. The new P-GBSDM was shown to be an effective platform for engaging stakeholders and simulating their proposed management policies while taking into account socioeconomic considerations. This was not possible using the physically based SAHYSMOD model alone.

  9. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  10. Positioning Model-Supported, Participatory, Water Management Decision Making under Uncertainty within the Western Philosphical Discourse on Knowledge and Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, D. R.; Escobar, M.; Mehta, V. K.; Forni, L.

    2016-12-01

    Two important trends currently shape the manner in which water resources planning and decision making occurs. The first relates to the increasing reliance on participatory stakeholder processes as a forum for evaluating water management options and selecting the appropriate course of action. The second relates to the growing recognition that earlier deterministic approaches to this evaluation of options may no longer be appropriate, nor required. The convergence of these two trends poses questions as to the proper role of data, information, analysis and expertise in the inherently social and political process of negotiating water resources management agreements and implementing water resources management interventions. The question of how to discover the best or optimal option in the face of deep uncertainty related to climate change, demography, economic development, and regulatory reform is compelling. More fundamentally the question of whether the "perfect" option even exits to be discovered is perhaps more critical. While this existential question may be new to the water resource management community, it is not new to western political theory. This paper explores early classical philosophical writing related to issues of knowledge and governance as captured in the work of Plato and Aristotle; and then attempts to place a new approach to analysis-supported, stakeholder-driven water resources planning and decision making within this philosophical discourse. Using examples from river systems in California and the Andes, where the theory of Robust Decision Making has been used as an organizing construct for stakeholder processes, it is argued that the expectation that analysis will lead to the discovery of the perfect option is not warranted when stakeholders are engaged in the process of discovering a consensus option. This argument will touch upon issue of the diversity of values, model uncertainty and creditability, and the visualization of model output required

  11. Project stakeholder management

    CERN Document Server

    Eskerod, Pernille

    2013-01-01

    Carrying out a project as planned is not a guarantee for success. Projects may fail because project management does not take the requirements, wishes and concerns of stakeholders sufficiently into account. Projects can only be successful though contributions from stakeholders. And in the end, it is the stakeholders that evaluate whether they find that the project is a success. To manage stakeholders effectively, you need to know your stakeholders, their behaviours and attitudes towards the project. In Project Stakeholder Management, the authors give guidance on how to adopt an analytical and s

  12. Stakeholder analysis for industrial waste management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidrich, Oliver; Harvey, Joan; Tollin, Nicola

    2009-02-01

    Stakeholder approaches have been applied to the management of companies with a view to the improvement of all areas of performance, including economic, health and safety, waste reduction, future policies, etc. However no agreement exists regarding stakeholders, their interests and levels of importance. This paper considers stakeholder analysis with particular reference to environmental and waste management systems. It proposes a template and matrix model for identification of stakeholder roles and influences by rating the stakeholders. A case study demonstrates the use of these and their ability to be transferred to other circumstances and organizations is illustrated by using a large educational institution.

  13. A contextual ICA stakeholder model approach for the Namibian spatial data infrastructure (NamSDI)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sinvula, KM

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In 2011, the Namibian parliament presented and promulgated the Namibian Spatial Data Infrastructure (NamSDI) with the aim of promoting the sharing and improved access and use of geospatial data and services across Namibia. Notable SDI models...

  14. Addressing stakeholder conflicts in rural South Africa using a water supply model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D' Hont, F.M.; Clifford-Holmes, J.K.; Slinger, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    A system dynamics modelling approach is adopted to deepen understanding of the effects of operational management on the performance of the Greater Kirkwood water supply system in South Africa. Currently, the interrupted operation of the system has led to perceptions of systemic social injustice on t

  15. Testing a Model of Undergraduate Competence in Employability Skills and Its Implications for Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Denise

    2014-01-01

    Despite the development of employability skills being firmly entrenched in higher education's strategic agenda worldwide; recent graduates' standards in certain skills are not meeting industry expectations. This paper presents and tests a model of undergraduate competence in employability skills. It highlights those factors which impact on…

  16. Testing a Model of Undergraduate Competence in Employability Skills and Its Implications for Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Denise

    2014-01-01

    Despite the development of employability skills being firmly entrenched in higher education's strategic agenda worldwide; recent graduates' standards in certain skills are not meeting industry expectations. This paper presents and tests a model of undergraduate competence in employability skills. It highlights those factors which impact…

  17. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  18. Engaging scientists and policy stakeholders using a land use modelling and regional scenario exercise: an input to the development of sustainability indicators for European regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrov, Laura Oana; Shahumyan, Harutyun; Williams, Brendan

    2015-01-01

    that scientists and stakeholders exchange more actively knowledge and experience. Within Europe, Ireland is experiencing one of the severest recessions. It has undergone substantial changes over the past three decades: recession in the 1980s, boom in the 1990s and economic collapse at the end of the 2000s....... Scientists and stakeholders analysed four land uses using a scenarios approach supported by the urban and regional MOLAND model. Future simulated land use scenarios were produced, framed by land use and regional planning policies; also relevant indicators were selected to provide immediate support...... for a methodology for practical action to be used by scientists and stakeholders to ensure effective on-going collaborations. They also allow us to grasp crucial ideas about urban development processes, sustainable growth management and their possible consequences in the regional context in Europe and worldwide....

  19. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  20. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  1. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  2. Decision Making Models Using Weather Forecast Information

    OpenAIRE

    Hiramatsu, Akio; Huynh, Van-Nam; Nakamori, Yoshiteru

    2007-01-01

    The quality of weather forecast has gradually improved, but weather information such as precipitation forecast is still uncertainty. Meteorologists have studied the use and economic value of weather information, and users have to translate weather information into their most desirable action. To maximize the economic value of users, the decision maker should select the optimum course of action for his company or project, based on an appropriate decision strategy under uncertain situations. In...

  3. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions.

  4. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining these ...... these two understandings of the design process, a model has been developed, which describes the different types of decision made during the design process together with strategies that aid the designer in making decisions.......This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  5. Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

    The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

  6. Optimal pricing decision model based on activity-based costing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王福胜; 常庆芳

    2003-01-01

    In order to find out the applicability of the optimal pricing decision model based on conventional costbehavior model after activity-based costing has given strong shock to the conventional cost behavior model andits assumptions, detailed analyses have been made using the activity-based cost behavior and cost-volume-profitanalysis model, and it is concluded from these analyses that the theory behind the construction of optimal pri-cing decision model is still tenable under activity-based costing, but the conventional optimal pricing decisionmodel must be modified as appropriate to the activity-based costing based cost behavior model and cost-volume-profit analysis model, and an optimal pricing decision model is really a product pricing decision model construc-ted by following the economic principle of maximizing profit.

  7. The Use of Visual Decision Support Tools in an Interactive Stakeholder Analysis—Old Ports as New Magnets for Creative Urban Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Nijkamp

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Port cities are historically important breeding places of civilization and wealth, and act as attractive high-quality and sustainable places to live and work. They are core places for sustainable development for the entire spatial system as a result of their dynamism, which has in recent years reinforced their position as magnets in a spatial-economic force field. To understand and exploit this potential, the present study presents an analytical framework that links the opportunities provided by traditional port areas/cities to creative, resilient and sustainable urban development. Using evidence-based research, findings are presented from a case study by employing a stakeholder-based model—with interactive visual support tools as novel analysis methods—in a backcasting and forecasting exercise for sustainable development. The empirical study is carried out in and around the NDSM-area, a former dockyard in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Various future images were used—in an interactive assessment incorporating classes of important stakeholders—as strategic vehicles to identify important policy challenges, and to evaluate options for converting historical-cultural urban port landscapes into sustainable and creative hotspots, starting by reusing, recovering, and regenerating such areas. This approach helps to identify successful policy strategies, and to bring together different forms of expertise in order to resolve conflicts between the interests (or values of a multiplicity of stakeholders, with a view to stimulating economic vitality in combination with meeting social needs and ensuring the conservation of eco-systems in redesigning old port areas. The results indicate that the interactive policy support tools developed for the case study are fit for purpose, and are instrumental in designing sustainable urban port areas.

  8. Decision support for dutch drought management and climate change with the Netherland Hydrological Modeling Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunink, J.; Hoogewoud, J. C.; Prinsen, G.; Veldhuizen, A.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument Decision support for dutch drought management and climate change. J. Hunink , J.C.Hoogewoud , A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods and is updated every year. During periods of water scarcity the NHI is used for operational forecasting and decision support system for the National Board of water Distribution. It provides data on nationwide calculated water demands, development of water levels in reservoirs and possible los of yield in agricultural area's. For the exploration of the future of fresh water supply in the Netherlands an extensive study is set up using the NHI. In this study different climate scenarios are being evalueated. In the first phase the focus is on describing the range of possible effects, the second phase focuses on adaptive measures and preparing for decisions how to alter the hydrological system. Results from the first phase show that in future scenario's fresh water may not be available to current water users. Important decisions about the

  9. Using a semi distributed model to enhance communication with stakeholders and participation for designing nitrogen-efficient cropping systems in a catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupas, Rémi; Parnaudeau, Virginie; Reau, Raymond; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Durand, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Context Catchment scale fully distributed agro-hydrological models are often advocated to evaluate the effect of N mitigation plans on water quality. This type of model is well suited to predict nitrate concentration in rivers under different scenarios, thanks to the variety of processes considered (e.g. groundwater table fluctuations, retention by landscape structures). The role of stakeholders is often limited to providing input data for the modeling; participation only takes place when defining the scenarios to be tested (e.g. implementation of a regulation). In most cases, characterization of the cropping systems and their evolution is carried out by scientists alone based on data from surveys and external expert knowledge. For instance, crop succession on each field plot is determined using complex statistical methods or remote sensing data, generating a complex system description that is not always adapted to the stakeholder's issues. However, modeling with stakeholders at local scale enables increasing and sharing knowledge by collaborative learning. We assume that involving stakeholders in the characterization of the cropping systems to be modeled, and simplifying system description, helps performing modeling studies that answer their questions on design of N efficient cropping systems. The model Syst'N is a tool designed to increase knowledge on nitrogen losses in cropping systems, at the plot scale. This tool, beyond a mere simulation model, was developed in order to meet requirements and constraints of non scientific users such as local stakeholders involved in water quality actions. They are referred to as 'stakeholders' hereafter. In this simulation study, N losses at the outlet of the catchment result from an aggregation of losses simulated in 63 homogenous simulation units (HSU), representing cropping systems present in the catchment. Learnings from field experience with stakeholders The field experience described here is from a 80km² catchment

  10. Shrinking Sea Ice, Thawing Permafrost, Bigger Storms, and Extremely Limited Data - Addressing Information Needs of Stakeholders in Western Alaska Through Participatory Decisions and Collaborative Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. A.; Reynolds, J.

    2015-12-01

    Communities, Tribes, and decision makers in coastal western Alaska are being impacted by declining sea ice, sea level rise, changing storm patterns and intensities, and increased rates of coastal erosion. Relative to their counterparts in the contiguous USA, their ability to plan for and respond to these changes is constrained by the region's generally meager or non-existent information base. Further, the information needs and logistic challenges are of a scale that perhaps can be addressed only through strong, strategic collaboration. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are fundamentally about applied science and collaboration, especially collaborative decision making. The Western Alaska LCC has established a process of participatory decision making that brings together researchers, agency managers, local experts from Tribes and field specialists to identify and prioritize shared information needs; develop a course of action to address them by using the LCC's limited resources to catalyze engagement, overcome barriers to progress, and build momentum; then ensure products are delivered in a manner that meets decision makers' needs. We briefly review the LCC's activities & outcomes from the stages of (i) collaborative needs assessment (joint with the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Alaska Ocean Observing System), (ii) strategic science activities, and (iii) product refinement and delivery. We discuss lessons learned, in the context of our recent program focused on 'Changes in Coastal Storms and Their Impacts' and current collaborative efforts focused on delivery of Coastal Resiliency planning tools and results from applied science projects. Emphasis is given to the various key interactions between scientists and decision makers / managers that have been promoted by this process to ensure alignment of final products to decision maker needs.

  11. Towards a More Holistic Stakeholder Analysis Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sedereviciute, Kristina; Valentini, Chiara

    2011-01-01

    in finding stakeholders on new environments (social media), where connectivity and relationships play a key role. The argument stems from the need to assess stakeholder presence beyond the dyadic ties. Consequently, the combination of the Stakeholder Salience Model (SSM) and social network analysis (SNA......) is proposed as a more holistic solution for stakeholder identification including those from social media. A process of finding “unknown” but important stakeholders from social media was identified incorporating the content search and the principles of SNA. Consequently, stakeholders from social media...... are identified based on the dimensions of connectivity and the content shared. Accordingly, the study introduces four groups of important actors from social media: unconcerned lurkers, unconcerned influencers, concerned lurkers and concerned influencers and integrates them into the existing Stakeholder Salience...

  12. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  13. Defining quality of life in the children of parents with severe mental illness: a preliminary stakeholder-led model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny Bee

    Full Text Available Severe parental mental illness poses a challenge to quality of life (QoL in a substantial number of children and adolescents, and improving the lives of these children is of urgent political and public health concern. This study used a bottom-up qualitative approach to develop a new stakeholder-led model of quality of life relevant to this population. Qualitative data were collected from 19 individuals participating in focus groups or individual interviews. Participants comprised 8 clinical academics, health and social care professionals or voluntary agency representatives; 5 parents and 6 young people (aged 13-18 yrs with lived experience of severe parental mental illness. Data underwent inductive thematic analysis for the purposes of informing a population-specific quality of life model. Fifty nine individual themes were identified and grouped into 11 key 'meta-themes'. Mapping each meta-theme against existing child-centred quality of life concepts revealed a multi-dimensional model that endorsed, to a greater or lesser degree, the core domains of generic quality of life models. Three new population-specific priorities were also observed: i the alleviation of parental mental health symptoms, ii improved problem-based coping skills and iii increased mental health literacy. The identification of these priorities raises questions regarding the validity of generic quality of life measures to monitor the effectiveness of services for families and children affected by severe mental illness. New, age-appropriate instruments that better reflect the life priorities and unique challenges faced by the children of parents with severe mental illness may need to be developed. Challenges then remain in augmenting and adapting service design and delivery mechanisms better to meet these needs. Future child and adult mental health services need to work seamlessly alongside statutory education and social care services and a growing number of relevant third

  14. Defining quality of life in the children of parents with severe mental illness: a preliminary stakeholder-led model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bee, Penny; Berzins, Kathryn; Calam, Rachel; Pryjmachuk, Steven; Abel, Kathryn M

    2013-01-01

    Severe parental mental illness poses a challenge to quality of life (QoL) in a substantial number of children and adolescents, and improving the lives of these children is of urgent political and public health concern. This study used a bottom-up qualitative approach to develop a new stakeholder-led model of quality of life relevant to this population. Qualitative data were collected from 19 individuals participating in focus groups or individual interviews. Participants comprised 8 clinical academics, health and social care professionals or voluntary agency representatives; 5 parents and 6 young people (aged 13-18 yrs) with lived experience of severe parental mental illness. Data underwent inductive thematic analysis for the purposes of informing a population-specific quality of life model. Fifty nine individual themes were identified and grouped into 11 key 'meta-themes'. Mapping each meta-theme against existing child-centred quality of life concepts revealed a multi-dimensional model that endorsed, to a greater or lesser degree, the core domains of generic quality of life models. Three new population-specific priorities were also observed: i) the alleviation of parental mental health symptoms, ii) improved problem-based coping skills and iii) increased mental health literacy. The identification of these priorities raises questions regarding the validity of generic quality of life measures to monitor the effectiveness of services for families and children affected by severe mental illness. New, age-appropriate instruments that better reflect the life priorities and unique challenges faced by the children of parents with severe mental illness may need to be developed. Challenges then remain in augmenting and adapting service design and delivery mechanisms better to meet these needs. Future child and adult mental health services need to work seamlessly alongside statutory education and social care services and a growing number of relevant third sector providers to

  15. IDENTIFYING OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS TO SELECT SUITABLE DECISION MODELS FOR A PUBLIC SECTOR EPROCUREMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Adil

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Public sector procurement should be a transparent and fair process. Strict legal requirements are enforced on public sector procurement to make it a standardised process. To make fair decisions on selecting suppliers, a practical method which adheres to legal requirements is important. The research that is the base for this paper aimed at identifying a suitable Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA method for the specific legal and functional needs of the Maldivian Public Sector. To identify such operational requirements, a set of focus group interviews were conducted in the Maldives with public officials responsible for procurement decision making. Based on the operational requirements identified through focus groups, criteria-based evaluation is done on published MCDA methods to identify the suitable methods for e-procurement decision making. This paper describes the identification of the operational requirements and the results of the evaluation to select suitable decision models for the Maldivian context.

  16. Electronic market models for decision support systems on the Web

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢勇; 王红卫; 费奇

    2004-01-01

    With the prevalence of the Web, most decision-makers are likely to use the Web to support their decision-making. Web-based technologies are leading a major stream of researching decision support systems (DSS). We propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for Web-based open DSS (WODSS). The formal definition gives an overall view of WODSS, and the conceptual framework based on browser/broker/server computing mode employs the electronic market to mediate decision-makers and providers, and facilitate sharing and reusing of decision resources. We also develop an admitting model, a trading model and a competing model of electronic market in WODSS based on market theory in economics. These models reveal the key mechanisms that drive WODSS operate efficiently.

  17. TWO-STAGE DECISION MODEL OF SOY FOOD CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Rimal, Arbindra; Balasubramanian, Siva K.; Moon, Wanki

    2004-01-01

    Our study examined the role of soy health benefits in consumers' soy consumption decision. Given the large number of respondents who reported no consumption of soy products per month, it was important to model the decision of whether or not to participate in soy market separately from the consumption intensity decision. Estimation results demonstrate that knowledge of health benefits affects both the likelihood of participation and consumption intensity. That is, consumers with higher soy hea...

  18. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating Frie

  19. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating

  20. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating Frie

  1. Model-driven decision support for monitoring network design: methods and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D. R.; Mishra, P. K.; Katzman, D.

    2012-12-01

    contaminant concentrations (mass) in the regional aquifer. To explore the uncertainties in model predictions, a series of existing and novel approaches (global/local) have been tested and compared. Retrospective analyses of the published source-identification and DS results demonstrate the accuracy of model predictions and the success of implemented decision-support process. The presented new and existing DS approaches and computational algorithms are implemented in code MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). MADS is C/C++ code designed to be an open-source framework for model-based decision support employing system and physics simulation models. MADS performs various types of model analyses including sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, model calibration, selection and averaging. Currently, MADS algorithms are being also implemented in a Decision Support (DS) Toolbox of ASCEM (Advanced Subsurface Computing for Environmental Management; http://ascemdoe.org) code development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Management (DOE EM). ASCEM targets development of an interactive decision support system (DSS) that will help domain scientist, managers, regulators, and stakeholders to make decisions related to site characterization, monitoring design, and remedial activities based on data- and model-driven DS analyses exploiting high-performance computing.

  2. Co-valuation: exploring methods for expert and stakeholder valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duijn, M.; Schie, N. van; Edelenbos, J.

    2011-01-01

    Many scholars describe a trend towards stakeholder involvement. Also in Dutch water management, this is expected to generate more support and better-informed information for decision-making. An approach methodology for the combined involvement of stakeholder and expert inputs in decision-making,

  3. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  4. How and Why Decision Models Influence Marketing Resource Allocations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.L. Lilien (Gary); A. Rangaswamy (Arvind); K. Starke (Katrin); G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractWe study how and why model-based Decision Support Systems (DSSs) influence managerial decision making, in the context of marketing budgeting and resource allocation. We consider several questions: (1) What does it mean for a DSS to be "good?"; (2) What is the relationship between an anch

  5. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  6. A Signal Detection Model of Compound Decision Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    strict isolation (for many examples of such models see Egan, 1975; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). The result has been twofold: A rich corpus of decision...Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). It is important to point out that SDT models are primarily decision models. They specify the rules and procedures for how...Broadbent, 1958; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991; Nolte & Jaarsma, 1967; Swensson & Judy, 1981; Tanner & Norman, 1954). To better understand how these two

  7. The role of business intelligence in decision process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Višnja Istrat

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is a very significant and complex function of management that requires methods and techniques that simplify the process of choosing the best alternative. In modern business, the challenge for managers is to find the alternatives for improving the decision-making process. Decisions directly affect profit generation and positioning of the company in the market. It is well-known that people dealt with the phenomenon of decision making in each phase of the development of society, which has triggered the need to learn more about this process. The main contribution of this paper is to show the significance of business intelligence tools and techniques as support to the decision making process of managers. Research results have shown that business intelligence plays an enormous role in modern decision process modeling.

  8. An interdisciplinary framework for participatory modeling design and evaluation—What makes models effective participatory decision tools?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconi, Stefanie M.; Palmer, Richard N.

    2017-02-01

    Increased requirements for public involvement in water resources management (WRM) over the past century have stimulated the development of more collaborative decision-making methods. Participatory modeling (PM) uses computer models to inform and engage stakeholders in the planning process in order to influence collaborative decisions in WRM. Past evaluations of participatory models focused on process and final outcomes, yet, were hindered by diversity of purpose and inconsistent documentation. This paper presents a two-stage framework for evaluating PM based on mechanisms for improving model effectiveness as participatory tools. The five dimensions characterize the "who, when, how, and why" of each participatory effort (stage 1). Models are evaluated as "boundary objects," a concept used to describe tools that bridge understanding and translate different bodies of knowledge to improve credibility, salience, and legitimacy (stage 2). This evaluation framework is applied to five existing case studies from the literature. Though the goals of participation can be diverse, the novel contribution of the two-stage proposed framework is the flexibility it has to evaluate a wide range of cases that differ in scope, modeling approach, and participatory context. Also, the evaluation criteria provide a structured vocabulary based on clear mechanisms that extend beyond previous process-based and outcome-based evaluations. Effective models are those that take advantage of mechanisms that facilitate dialogue and resolution and improve the accessibility and applicability of technical knowledge. Furthermore, the framework can help build more complete records and systematic documentation of evidence to help standardize the field of PM.

  9. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  10. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    OpenAIRE

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating FrieslandCampina (FC), which was the fourth largest dairy company in the world at that time. In 2009, a new Milk Valorization & Allocation (MVA) department was created at the corporate level to opt...

  11. Multi-person Decision Model for Unfinished Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a proposed model of multi-person decision on prioritizing selection with regard to continuing or terminating unfinished construction projects. This involved multiple steps including determining criteria and sub criteria, selecting and weighting of alternatives, optimizing, and analyzing coalition formation and agreement option. Criteria and sub criteria that were obtained from perspectives of 120 project managers are the first basis to construct decision hierarchy. The model is implemented in one of the biggest private construction projects in Indonesia. The implementation was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for multi criteria decision involving coalition and agreement options in a multi-person decision. Goal Programming was used to optimize based on cost constrains. The results demonstrate a process of multiperson decision to select priorities of each alternative to each decision and concluded that some of the projects were continued, postponed or terminated. The new direction of research presented in this paper presents some interesting challenges to those involved in modeling computer-based multi-person decision support utilizing both Multi Agent System and Multi Criteria Decision Making.

  12. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  13. The ethical decision making model in obstetrics and gynaecology practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazimah Idris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilise clinical scenarios where ethical issues are embedded and requires appropriate application of the steps of the framework mentioned. A step by step sequential approach is adopted to illustrate how the ‘ethical decision model ‘can be used to resolve ethical problems to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. The UNESCO ethical method of reasoning is used as the framework for decision making. Physicianeducators should be competent to use ethical decision models as well as best available scientific evidence to be able to arrive at the best decision for patient care as well as teach health professional trainees how reasonable treatment decisions can be made within the perimeter of medical law and social justice.

  14. Understanding the Mechanisms of Collective Decision Making in Ecological Restoration: An Agent-Based Model of Actors and Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristy Watkins

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration, particularly in urban contexts, is a complex collective decision-making process that involves a diversity of stakeholders and experts, each with their own perceptions and preferences about what landscapes should and can look like, how to get them to the desired state, and on what timeline. We investigate how structural and behavioral factors may influence collective decision making in the context of ecological restoration, with the purpose of establishing general relationships between management styles (defined by structural and behavioral factors of the organization and decision outcomes. Informed by existing literature on collective decision making and by empirical data from the Chicago Wilderness region, we present a stylized agent-based model that maps out and simulates the processes by which individuals within restoration organizations communicate, discuss, and ultimately make a decision. Our study examines how structural and behavioral characteristics--including: (a the number of actors and groups involved in decision making, (b the frequency and type of interactions among actors, (c the initial setup of positions and respect, (d outside information, and (e entrenchment and cost of dissent--lead to or prohibit group convergence in terms of collective position, variation in position across actors, and final decision strategies. We found that formal meetings and group leaders are important facilitators of convergence, especially when multiple groups are present, new information is introduced in the process, and participants are polarized around an issue. Also, intergroup interactions are particularly important for overall convergence. Position entrenchment slows the convergence process and increases the need for decision strategies involving outside intervention. Cost of dissent can reinforce these effects. Our study formalizes collective decision-making processes within the context of ecological restoration

  15. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  16. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  17. Stakeholder Relationships in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettunen, Juha

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a stakeholder map to describe the most important stakeholders and the process of stakeholder relationships in higher education. According to the perspective of the balanced scorecard, the classification of stakeholders integrates stakeholders into strategic management. Stakeholder maps are essential in…

  18. Stakeholder Relationships in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettunen, Juha

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a stakeholder map to describe the most important stakeholders and the process of stakeholder relationships in higher education. According to the perspective of the balanced scorecard, the classification of stakeholders integrates stakeholders into strategic management. Stakeholder maps are essential in…

  19. Stakeholders in Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    of stakeholders and stakeholder roles, which may pave the way for dedicated management and communication strategies to enhance and bolster relationships. This volume follows in the footsteps of the many researchers who have studied and explored the field; however, as opposed to much current literature, which...... often takes a primarily theoretical approach to the study of stakeholders and stakeholder management, the chapters in this book are first and foremost focused on the practical aspects of the field. Thus, through seven separate case studies, the book discusses how stakeholders are constructed implicitly...... and explicitly in corporate and institutional texts, investigating the possible consequences of these constructions for the communication and engagement between stakeholders and organisations....

  20. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  1. Reservoir Operations and Flow Modeling to Support Decision Making in the Delaware River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinodoz, H. A.

    2006-12-01

    About five percent of the US population depends on the waters from the Delaware River Basin for its water supply, including New York City and Philadelphia. Water management in the basin is governed by a compact signed in 1961 by the four basin states and the federal government. The compact created the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) and gave it broad powers to plan, regulate, and manage the development of the basin water resources. The compact also recognized a pre-existing (1954) U.S. Supreme Court Decree that grants the City of New York the right to export up to 800 million gallons per day out of the basin, provided that a prescribed minimum flow is met at Montague, New Jersey for the use of the lower-basin states. The Delaware River Basin Compact also allows the DRBC to adjust the releases and diversions under the Decree, subject to the unanimous consent of the decree parties. This mechanism has been used several times over the last 30 years, to implement and modify rules governing drought operations, instream flows, minimum flow targets, and control of salinity intrusion. In every case, decision makers have relied upon extensive modeling of alternative proposals, using a basin-wide daily flow model. Often, stakeholders have modified and used the same model to test and refine their proposals prior to consideration by the decision makers. The flow model has been modified over the years, to simulate new features and processes in a river system partially controlled by more than ten reservoirs. The flow model has proved to be an adaptable tool, able to simulate the dynamics of a complex system driven by conflicting objectives. This presentation reviews the characteristics of the daily flow model in its current form, discuss how model simulations are used to inform the decision-making process, and provide a case study of a recent modification of the system-wide drought operating plan.

  2. Reduced model-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culbreth, Adam J; Westbrook, Andrew; Daw, Nathaniel D; Botvinick, Matthew; Barch, Deanna M

    2016-08-01

    Individuals with schizophrenia have a diminished ability to use reward history to adaptively guide behavior. However, tasks traditionally used to assess such deficits often rely on multiple cognitive and neural processes, leaving etiology unresolved. In the current study, we adopted recent computational formalisms of reinforcement learning to distinguish between model-based and model-free decision-making in hopes of specifying mechanisms associated with reinforcement-learning dysfunction in schizophrenia. Under this framework, decision-making is model-free to the extent that it relies solely on prior reward history, and model-based if it relies on prospective information such as motivational state, future consequences, and the likelihood of obtaining various outcomes. Model-based and model-free decision-making was assessed in 33 schizophrenia patients and 30 controls using a 2-stage 2-alternative forced choice task previously demonstrated to discern individual differences in reliance on the 2 forms of reinforcement-learning. We show that, compared with controls, schizophrenia patients demonstrate decreased reliance on model-based decision-making. Further, parameter estimates of model-based behavior correlate positively with IQ and working memory measures, suggesting that model-based deficits seen in schizophrenia may be partially explained by higher-order cognitive deficits. These findings demonstrate specific reinforcement-learning and decision-making deficits and thereby provide valuable insights for understanding disordered behavior in schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record

  3. Baltic Herring Fisheries Management: Stakeholder Views to Frame the Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Päivi Haapasaari

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive problem framing that includes different perspectives is essential for holistic understanding of complex problems and as the first step in building models. We involved five stakeholders to frame the management problem of the Central Baltic herring fishery. By using the Bayesian belief networks (BBNs approach, the views of the stakeholders were built into graphical influence diagrams representing variables and their dependencies. The views of the scientists involved concentrated on biological concerns, whereas the fisher, the manager, and the representative of an environmental nongovernmental organization included markets and fishing industry influences. Management measures were considered to have a relatively small impact on the development of the herring stock; their impact on socioeconomic objectives was greater. Overall, the framings by these stakeholders propose a focus on socioeconomic issues in research and management and explicitly define management objectives, not only in biological but also in social and economic terms. We find the approach an illustrative tool to structure complex issues systematically. Such a tool can be used as a forum for discussion and for decision support that explicitly includes the views of different stakeholder groups. It enables the examination of social and biological factors in one framework and facilitates bridging the gap between social and natural sciences. A benefit of the BBN approach is that the graphical model structures can be transformed into a quantitative form by inserting probabilistic information.

  4. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Carlson, Jean M; Stromberg, Sean P; Bassett, Danielle S; Craparo, Emily M; Gutierrez-Villarreal, Francisco; Otani, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In each scenario, individuals are faced with a forced "go" versus "no go" evacuation decision, based on information available on competing broadcast and peer-to-peer sources. In this controlled setting, all actions and observations are recorded prior to the decision, enabling development of a quantitative decision making model that accounts for the disaster likelihood, severity, and temporal urgency, as well as competition between networked individuals for limited emergency resources. Individual differences in behavior within this social setting are correlated with individual differences in inh...

  5. Decision support for participatory wetland decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosen, H.; Janssen, R.H.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Decision support systems can be helpful tools in wetland planning and management. Decision support systems can contribute to efficient exchange of information between experts, stakeholders, decision makers and laypeople. However, the achievements of decision support systems are repeatedly being repo

  6. A neural model of decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    and inhibitory processes and EEG is still useful for research as a broader and direct measure of brain activity. On this background a new interdisciplinary field linking behavioural economics and neuroscience into a neuroeconomic discipline emerges. Recent reviews of neuroeconomics represent a platform...... for further development of neuroeconomics [McLean 1992 and Luria 1973].    An overview of neuroeconomics from an economic perspective reviewing 13 studies [Kenning and Plassman, 2005]. It is concluded that the first studies are explorative research focusing concepts crucial to modern economic theory...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man.    Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al...

  7. Incorporating risk attitude into Markov-process decision models: importance for individual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cher, D J; Miyamoto, J; Lenert, L A

    1997-01-01

    Most decision models published in the medical literature take a risk-neutral perspective. Under risk neutrality, the utility of a gamble is equivalent to its expected value and the marginal utility of living a given unit of time is the same regardless of when it occurs. Most patients, however, are not risk-neutral. Not only does risk aversion affect decision analyses when tradeoffs between short- and long-term survival are involved, it also affects the interpretation of time-tradeoff measures of health-state utility. The proportional time tradeoff under- or overestimates the disutility of an inferior health state, depending on whether the patient is risk-seeking or risk-averse (it is unbiased if the patient is risk-neutral). The authors review how risk attitude with respect to gambles for survival duration can be incorporated into decision models using the framework of risk-adjusted quality-adjusted life years (RA-QALYs). They present a simple extension of this framework that allows RA-QALYs to be calculated for Markov-process decision models. Using a previously published Markov-process model of surgical vs expectant treatment for benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH), they show how attitude towards risk affects the expected number of QALYs calculated by the model. In this model, under risk neutrality, surgery was the preferred option. Under mild risk aversion, expectant treatment was the preferred option. Risk attitude is an important aspect of preferences that should be incorporated into decision models where one treatment option has upfront risks of morbidity or mortality.

  8. Building models for marketing decisions : past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, Dick R.

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models t

  9. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models t

  10. Using mental-modelling to explore how irrigators in the Murray–Darling Basin make water-use decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen M. Douglas

    2016-06-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Results suggest support for greater local and irrigator involvement in water management decisions. Many, if not most, of the irrigators understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. However, a lack of accountability, predictability, and transparency has added to the uncertainty in farm-based water decision-making. Irrigators supported the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. The mental modelling approach facilitated knowledge sharing among stakeholders and can be used to identify common goals. Future research utilizing the mental modelling approach may encourage co-management and knowledge partnerships between irrigators, water managers and government officials.

  11. A Decision Model for Locating Controversial Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumphrey, Anthony J.; And Others

    1971-01-01

    Locating controversial public facilities, such as highways or airports, that generate significant public opposition requires a more sophisticated methodology than the traditional least cost" procedures for minimizing physical costs. Two models--a short-run political placation" model and a long-run welfare distribution" model--evaluate the…

  12. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm on...

  13. Board Effectiveness and Employee Engagement: Nigeria Stakeholder Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashir Mande

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to determine whether employee participation yields effective board performance. To stimulatedebates inthe stakeholder theoretical perspective in an attempt to offer more inclusive approach to strengthen the existing governance structure in Nigeria.This research intends to investigate the suitability of employees participating in board’s decision-making hierarchy because of their contractual importance as wealth creators of the firm. A conceptual model is proposed and tested on public listed companies in Nigeria based on survey perception of sampled 154 respondents. The study employs in-depth confirmatory factory analysis in a structural equation modeling approach. Building upon constructs such as union relations, productivity, and skilled-labor turnover, the study found the indicator variables measure employee participation, which focused more on the board’s control, operational decisions, and strategy in monitoring, service, and networking roles. Hence, we conclude that employees as important contractual company stakeholders affect board performance. Builds on the limited research agenda for boards and corporate governance that focus on coordinating, exploring and distribution of stakes using adventurous research designs and statistical tools, especially in Nigerian emerging economy. This paper exposes the firm’s potentials as provider of sustainable and longer-term benefits not only limited to equityholders, but also to employees as wealth creators, which will improve mutual trust, harmony and confidence for more stable and productive outputs that could give visibility to income inequality. The paper provides valid measures that link corporate governance debates to broader stakeholder perspective.

  14. Managing the university campus: exploring models for the future and supporting today's decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, A.C.

    2012-01-01

    Managing contemporary campuses and taking decisions that will impact on those of tomorrow is a complex task for universities worldwide. It involves strategic, financial, functional and physical aspects as well as multiple stakeholders. This article summarises the conclusions of a comprehensive PhD r

  15. MULTI SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES DECISION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎威武; 陈治纲; 邵惠鹤

    2002-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a powerful machine learning method developed from statistical learning theory and is currently an active field in artificial intelligent technology. SVM is sensitive to noise vectors near hyperplane since it is determined only by few support vectors. In this paper, Multi SVM decision model(MSDM)was proposed. MSDM consists of multiple SVMs and makes decision by synthetic information based on multi SVMs. MSDM is applied to heart disease diagnoses based on UCI benchmark data set. MSDM somewhat inproves the robust of decision system.

  16. Decision making in the transtheoretical model of behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, James O

    2008-01-01

    Decision making is an integral part of the transtheoretical model of behavior change. Stage of change represents a temporal dimension for behavior change and has been the key dimension for integrating principles and processes of change from across leading theories of psychotherapy and behavior change. The decision-making variables representing the pros and cons of changing have been found to have systematic relationships across the stages of change for 50 health-related behaviors. Implications of these patterns of relationships are discussed in the context of helping patients make more effective decisions to decrease health risk behaviors and increase health-enhancing behaviors.

  17. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  18. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  19. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  20. The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    REINE EN DROIT DU CANADA (2009) Défense Nationale Canada Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page i Abstract The complex and...help to guide human decision-making. He proposes an alternative descriptive model, the Critique , Explore, Compare, Adapt (CECA) Loop. This model is...section). Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page 45 The Critique phase involves questioning the conceptual model (“how you want it to

  1. Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

  2. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  3. Modeling aesthetics to support an ecosystem services approach for natural resource management decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Pieter N; Law, Sheryl A; Ma, Jane; Buonagurio, John; Boyd, James; Turnley, Jessica

    2017-09-01

    This paper reviews literature on aesthetics and describes the development of vista and landscape aesthetics models. Spatially explicit variables were chosen to represent physical characteristics of natural landscapes that are important to aesthetic preferences. A vista aesthetics model evaluates the aesthetics of natural landscapes viewed from distances of more than 1000 m, and a landscape aesthetics model evaluates the aesthetic value of wetlands and forests within 1000 m from the viewer. Each of the model variables is quantified using spatially explicit metrics on a pixel-specific basis within EcoAIM™, a geographic information system (GIS)-based ecosystem services (ES) decision analysis support tool. Pixel values are "binned" into ranked categories, and weights are assigned to select variables to represent stakeholder preferences. The final aesthetic score is the weighted sum of all variables and is assigned ranked values from 1 to 10. Ranked aesthetic values are displayed on maps by patch type and integrated within EcoAIM. The response of the aesthetic scoring in the models was tested by comparing current conditions in a discrete area of the facility with a Development scenario in the same area. The Development scenario consisted of two 6-story buildings and a trail replacing natural areas. The results of the vista aesthetic model indicate that the viewshed area variable had the greatest effect on the aesthetics overall score. Results from the landscape aesthetics model indicate a 10% increase in overall aesthetics value, attributed to the increase in landscape diversity. The models are sensitive to the weights assigned to certain variables by the user, and these weights should be set to reflect regional landscape characteristics as well as stakeholder preferences. This demonstration project shows that natural landscape aesthetics can be evaluated as part of a nonmonetary assessment of ES, and a scenario-building exercise provides end users with a tradeoff

  4. A novel framework for analysing stakeholder interest in healthy foods: A case study on iodine biofortification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogendi, Joseph Birundu; De Steur, Hans; Gellynck, Xavier; Makokha, Anselimo

    2016-01-01

    Despite the availability of novel strategies to prevent micronutrient malnutrition, such as biofortification, limited understanding of stakeholders often hampers their success. We build upon the existing literature on protection motivations (PMT) and technology acceptance (TAM) to develop an integrated PMTAM model for analyzing stakeholders' reactions, on both the supply and demand sides. Regarding the latter, the case of the iodine biofortified food chain is used to evaluate African households' interest. All model constructs, and threat appraisal in particular, are decisive in determining the uptake of biofortification, while also social demographics and own nutrition status play an important role.

  5. Open Models of Decision Support Towards a Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Diasio, Stephen Ray

    2012-01-01

    Aquesta tesi presenta un marc per als models oberts de suport a les decisions en les organitzacions. El treball es vehicula a través d’un compendi d’articles on s’analitzen els fluxos d’entrada i de sortida de coneixement en les organitzacions, així como les tecnologies existents de suport a les decisions. Es presenten els factors subjacents que impulsen nous models per a formes obertes de suport a la decisió. La tesis presenta un estudi de les distintes tipologies de models de suport a les d...

  6. The Intelligent Decision Support System Model of SARS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhouXingyu; ZhangJiang; LiuYang; XieYanqing; ZhangRan; ZhaoYang; HeZhongxiong

    2004-01-01

    Based on the intelligent decision support system, a new method was presented to defense the catastrophic infectious disease such as SARS, Bird Flu, etc.. By using All Set theory, the decision support system (DSS) model can be built to analyze the noise information and forecast the trend of the catastrophe then to give the method or policy to defend the disease. The model system is composed of four subsystems: the noise analysis subsystem, forecast and simulation subsystem, diagnosis subsystem and second recovery subsystem. They are discussed briefly in this paper. This model can be used not only for SARS but also for other paroxysmal accidences.

  7. Entity Modeling and Immersive Decision Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    enhanced visual displays. The team also demonstrated 6-degrees of freedom (6DoF) aero models in a real-time or near real-time training network, and...developed rule sets for functional handoff of aero models from one level of complexity to another to maximize computational capability. The above tasking...motion blur reduction shutter was used to systematically manipulate hold time causing luminance to co-vary with hold time. Thus, a fourth independent

  8. Modeling Conflict And Exchange In Collective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.

    1995-01-01

    Two dynamic models of collecuve decision maklng are Introduced and lllustrated wlth a simple example. A more extensive presentation and appllcauon concerning the European Community can be found In Bueno de Mesqulta and Stokman (19941. The two dynamlc models reflect two alternative views of collectiv

  9. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Worm, J.M.; Harten, van A.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the N

  10. A normative model of hospital marketing decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, K L; Brown, G; Humphreys, N

    1993-01-01

    A hospital marketing model is proposed for use as a framework for applying marketing strategy and concepts to hospitals. The cells of the model, primarily summarizing the many decisions of the marketing management process as can be applied to hospitals, are justified by the health care marketing literature.

  11. Customised DSS and decision conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents and exemplifies a combination of techniques for deriving and modelling decision-maker and/or stakeholder preferences using a decision conference process. The applied techniques are used for the development of customised decision support systems (C-DSS) which can be used...... for appraisals of large transport infrastructure projects. The paper exemplifies how the process at a decision conference can be effectively supported by a DSS customised using appropriate techniques for the specific task in hand. In this respect a conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is combined...

  12. Modeling Policy and Agricultural Decisions in Afghanistan

    CERN Document Server

    Widener, Michael J; Gros, Andreas; Metcalf, Sara; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2011-01-01

    Afghanistan is responsible for the majority of the world's supply of poppy crops, which are often used to produce illegal narcotics like heroin. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. Parameters representing national subsidies, insurgent influence, and trafficking blockades are varied to represent different conditions that might encourage or discourage poppy agriculture. Our model shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions,...

  13. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  14. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  15. Multitask Efficiencies in the Decision Tree Model

    CERN Document Server

    Drucker, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    In Direct Sum problems [KRW], one tries to show that for a given computational model, the complexity of computing a collection $F = \\{f_i\\}$ of functions on independent inputs is approximately the sum of their individual complexities. In this paper, by contrast, we study the diversity of ways in which the joint computational complexity can behave when all the $f_i$ are evaluated on a \\textit{common} input. Fixing some model of computational cost, let $C_F(X): \\{0, 1\\}^l \\to \\mathbf{R}$ give the cost of computing the subcollection $\\{f_i(x): X_i = 1\\}$, on common input $x$. What constraints do the functions $C_F(X)$ obey, when $F$ is chosen freely? $C_F(X)$ will, for reasonable models, obey nonnegativity, monotonicity, and subadditivity. We show that, in the deterministic, adaptive query model, these are `essentially' the only constraints: for any function $C(X)$ obeying these properties and any $\\epsilon > 0$, there exists a family $F$ of boolean functions and a $T > 0$ such that for all $X \\in \\{0, 1\\}^l$, \\...

  16. Decision Support System for Resource Allocation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-04-01

    by Presutti and Trepp in their paper "Much Ado about EOQ." [2) The constraints used in the stock fund model are total stock fund dollars and limits on...Jersey, 1963. 2. Presutti, Victor J., Jr. and Trepp , Richard C., More Ado About Economic Order Ouantities (EOO), Operations Analysis Office

  17. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  18. Intelligent negotiation model for ubiquitous group decision scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Joo CARNEIRO; Diogo MARTINHO; Goreti MARREIROS; Paulo NOVAIS

    2016-01-01

    Supporting group decision-making in ubiquitous contexts is a complex task that must deal with a large amount of factors to succeed. Here we propose an approach for an intelligent negotiation model to support the group decision-making process specifically designed for ubiquitous contexts. Our approach can be used by researchers that intend to include arguments, complex algorithms, and agents’ modeling in a negotiation model. It uses a social networking logic due to the type of communication employed by the agents and it intends to support the ubiquitous group decision-making process in a similar way to the real process, which simultaneously preserves the amount and quality of intelligence generated in face-to-face meetings. We propose a new look into this problem by considering and defining strategies to deal with important points such as the type of attributes in the multi- criterion problems, agents’ reasoning, and intelligent dialogues.

  19. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  20. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  1. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  2. A Mining Algorithm for Extracting Decision Process Data Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces an algorithm that mines logs of user interaction with simulation software. It outputs a model that explicitly shows the data perspective of the decision process, namely the Decision Data Model (DDM. In the first part of the paper we focus on how the DDM is extracted by our mining algorithm. We introduce it as pseudo-code and, then, provide explanations and examples of how it actually works. In the second part of the paper, we use a series of small case studies to prove the robustness of the mining algorithm and how it deals with the most common patterns we found in real logs.

  3. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determiningthe aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, Philip John; Nowak, W.

    2015-01-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any...... by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time....

  4. A new decision support model for preanesthetic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrie, Olivier; Lazouni, Mohammed El Amine; Mahmoudi, Saïd; Mousseau, Vincent; Pirlot, Marc

    2016-09-01

    The principal challenges in the field of anesthesia and intensive care consist of reducing both anesthetic risks and mortality rate. The ASA score plays an important role in patients' preanesthetic evaluation. In this paper, we propose a methodology to derive simple rules which classify patients in a category of the ASA scale on the basis of their medical characteristics. This diagnosis system is based on MR-Sort, a multiple criteria decision analysis model. The proposed method intends to support two steps in this process. The first is the assignment of an ASA score to the patient; the second concerns the decision to accept-or not-the patient for surgery. In order to learn the model parameters and assess its effectiveness, we use a database containing the parameters of 898 patients who underwent preanesthesia evaluation. The accuracy of the learned models for predicting the ASA score and the decision of accepting the patient for surgery is assessed and proves to be better than that of other machine learning methods. Furthermore, simple decision rules can be explicitly derived from the learned model. These are easily interpretable by doctors, and their consistency with medical knowledge can be checked. The proposed model for assessing the ASA score produces accurate predictions on the basis of the (limited) set of patient attributes in the database available for the tests. Moreover, the learned MR-Sort model allows for easy interpretation by providing human-readable classification rules. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Weighted Hybrid Decision Tree Model for Random Forest Classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Vrushali Y.; Sinha, Pradeep K.; Petare, Manisha C.

    2016-06-01

    Random Forest is an ensemble, supervised machine learning algorithm. An ensemble generates many classifiers and combines their results by majority voting. Random forest uses decision tree as base classifier. In decision tree induction, an attribute split/evaluation measure is used to decide the best split at each node of the decision tree. The generalization error of a forest of tree classifiers depends on the strength of the individual trees in the forest and the correlation among them. The work presented in this paper is related to attribute split measures and is a two step process: first theoretical study of the five selected split measures is done and a comparison matrix is generated to understand pros and cons of each measure. These theoretical results are verified by performing empirical analysis. For empirical analysis, random forest is generated using each of the five selected split measures, chosen one at a time. i.e. random forest using information gain, random forest using gain ratio, etc. The next step is, based on this theoretical and empirical analysis, a new approach of hybrid decision tree model for random forest classifier is proposed. In this model, individual decision tree in Random Forest is generated using different split measures. This model is augmented by weighted voting based on the strength of individual tree. The new approach has shown notable increase in the accuracy of random forest.

  6. Mental model mapping as a new tool to analyse the use of information in decision-making in integrated water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolkman, M. J.; Kok, M.; van der Veen, A.

    The solution of complex, unstructured problems is faced with policy controversy and dispute, unused and misused knowledge, project delay and failure, and decline of public trust in governmental decisions. Mental model mapping (also called concept mapping) is a technique to analyse these difficulties on a fundamental cognitive level, which can reveal experiences, perceptions, assumptions, knowledge and subjective beliefs of stakeholders, experts and other actors, and can stimulate communication and learning. This article presents the theoretical framework from which the use of mental model mapping techniques to analyse this type of problems emerges as a promising technique. The framework consists of the problem solving or policy design cycle, the knowledge production or modelling cycle, and the (computer) model as interface between the cycles. Literature attributes difficulties in the decision-making process to communication gaps between decision makers, stakeholders and scientists, and to the construction of knowledge within different paradigm groups that leads to different interpretation of the problem situation. Analysis of the decision-making process literature indicates that choices, which are made in all steps of the problem solving cycle, are based on an individual decision maker’s frame of perception. This frame, in turn, depends on the mental model residing in the mind of the individual. Thus we identify three levels of awareness on which the decision process can be analysed. This research focuses on the third level. Mental models can be elicited using mapping techniques. In this way, analysing an individual’s mental model can shed light on decision-making problems. The steps of the knowledge production cycle are, in the same manner, ultimately driven by the mental models of the scientist in a specific discipline. Remnants of this mental model can be found in the resulting computer model. The characteristics of unstructured problems (complexity

  7. Stakeholder Attitudes EBM

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) conducted a survey of fisheries stakeholders on the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States seeking their views on...

  8. Stakeholder approach for evaluating organizational change projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltokorpi, Antti; Alho, Antti; Kujala, Jaakko; Aitamurto, Johanna; Parvinen, Petri

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims to create a model for evaluating organizational change initiatives from a stakeholder resistance viewpoint. The paper presents a model to evaluate change projects and their expected benefits. Factors affecting the challenge to implement change were defined based on stakeholder theory literature. The authors test the model's practical validity for screening change initiatives to improve operating room productivity. Change initiatives can be evaluated using six factors: the effect of the planned intervention on stakeholders' actions and position; stakeholders' capability to influence the project's implementation; motivation to participate; capability to change; change complexity; and management capability. The presented model's generalizability should be explored by filtering presented factors through a larger number of historical cases operating in different healthcare contexts. The link between stakeholders, the change challenge and the outcomes of change projects needs to be empirically tested. The proposed model can be used to prioritize change projects, manage stakeholder resistance and establish a better organizational and professional competence for managing healthcare organization change projects. New insights into existing stakeholder-related understanding of change project successes are provided.

  9. Assessment of Groundwater Potential Based on Multicriteria Decision Making Model and Decision Tree Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huajie Duan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater plays an important role in global climate change and satisfying human needs. In the study, RS (remote sensing and GIS (geographic information system were utilized to generate five thematic layers, lithology, lineament density, topology, slope, and river density considered as factors influencing the groundwater potential. Then, the multicriteria decision model (MCDM was integrated with C5.0 and CART, respectively, to generate the decision tree with 80 surveyed tube wells divided into four classes on the basis of the yield. To test the precision of the decision tree algorithms, the 10-fold cross validation and kappa coefficient were adopted and the average kappa coefficient for C5.0 and CART was 90.45% and 85.09%, respectively. After applying the decision tree to the whole study area, four classes of groundwater potential zones were demarcated. According to the classification result, the four grades of groundwater potential zones, “very good,” “good,” “moderate,” and “poor,” occupy 4.61%, 8.58%, 26.59%, and 60.23%, respectively, with C5.0 algorithm, while occupying the percentages of 4.68%, 10.09%, 26.10%, and 59.13%, respectively, with CART algorithm. Therefore, we can draw the conclusion that C5.0 algorithm is more appropriate than CART for the groundwater potential zone prediction.

  10. Stakeholders and Radiation Protection in Today's World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rick Jones, C. [Retired US DOE (United States); Lochard, J. [Centre d' Etude sur l' Evaluation de la Protection dans le Domaine Nucleaire, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France); Lazo, T. [OECD/NEA - Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) 75 - Paris (France)

    2006-07-01

    In looking forward the C.R.P.P.H.(Nea 's Committee on radiation protection and public health) identified three influences that will condition the way we address emerging issues, and will alter how we address ongoing issues. These are the involvement of stakeholders in decision making processes, the evolution of radiological protection science and its changing place in risk assessment and management, and the experience gained in implementing the current system of radiological protection. First among there is the growing importance of stakeholder involvement in radiation protection decision making. This has affected the way that the principles of justification, optimization and limitation are viewed, the way the role of the radiation protection professional in risk assessment and management is viewed, and the relative importance of case specific circumstances in relation to harmonized, internationally accepted criteria. In the wake of this change, the international system of radiological protection is being updated by the ICRP, and discussions of the most appropriate direction to take are nearing their end. Second, radiological protection science continues to identify specific aspects that do not fit the conventional linear non threshold model, and which us to consider that, at the very least, the risks from different exposures and exposure situations may not be as simply and universally comparable assumed. This will affect the way that risks are managed, and all relevant stakeholder involvement processes. In addition, decisions relating to public, worker and environmental health and safety are increasingly seen as judgement social choices. Although such choices must be guided by an understanding of state-of-the-art scientific and its uncertainties, the final, choice will generally be made by society, not scientists. Third, since the issuance of ICRP Publication 60 in 1990, and the International Basic Safety Standards in 1996, extensive experience has been

  11. The decision book fifty models for strategic thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Krogerus, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? A worldwide bestseller, The Decision Book distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses and elsewhere that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.

  12. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  13. Using interactive 3D visualisation to educate stakeholders in urban sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, Ruth; Isaacs, John; Blackwood, David

    2010-05-01

    Sustainable decision making in urban design is a complex and non-linear process, which requires the education and interaction of wide variety of stakeholders. A number of sustainable decision support tools have been developed but previous research by the authors has demonstrated that a major barrier to the implementation of tools is the complexity of the environment in which decision are made. In particular, engagement with the general public throughout the decision making process presents challenges in communicating the complex and interdependent facets of sustainability in decisions and also in providing an understanding to stakeholders of the short and long term implications of alternative courses of action. S-City VT, a prototype simulation and visualisation tool, demonstrates the underlying concepts that allow a wider range of stakeholders to understand, interact with and influence decisions regarding sustainability of urban design. Using the Dundee Waterfront Development Project as a case study, S-City VT takes the unique approach of combining computer game technology with computer modelling to present the stakeholder with an interactive virtual development. The virtual development is completely interactive allowing users to change the underlying models as well as the external appearance and location of buildings and other structures within the development. This provides a more interactive experience by allowing the user a one to one relationship with the environment they are interacting with, as opposed to existing off the shelf solutions, such as CAD or BIM, that lack in real time interactivity. S-City VT utilises existing games technology research to allow the rendering of virtual environment on consumer hardware opening up its use to a wider range of participants and venues by not relying on specialist hardware. The visualisation tool employs a number of different methods to display the multivariate sustainability data to the stakeholders. These methods

  14. Development of the stakeholder marketing at the enterprises in transportation and logistic system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Popova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to form conceptual model of the stakeholders marketing development and its implementation mechanism at the enterprises in transportation and logistic system in cluster network. The results of the analysis. The stakeholders marketing development problem at the enterprises of transportation and logistic system (TLSin Ukraine is connected with necessity to satisfy consumers’ needs more widely, because the interested sides impact the efficiency to give service in transport and logistics sphere. It is especially seen in cluster organizations, where stakeholders’ networks cooperate with each other. In order to see relation to stakeholders marketing and stakeholders approach in management, one carried out research of enterprises, transport and logistic organizations in Kharkiv region, which showed that enterprises have no information about stakeholders marketing, but most of them wish to understand and use it. Development of the stakeholders marketing at the transport and logistic system enterprises, which cooperate in the cluster, has its peculiarities, based on the fact that enterprises, consumers, partners and other stakeholders are connected with continual network. Their interests are observed as those ones, interconnected by the common aim. Interests conflict, appearing in the process of functioning, is solved through the dialogue. Enterprises are work in complicated system, which includes interconnection between subjects in cluster and outside it, based on trusting relations. All sides of the process to give and get transportation and logistic service, take part in creation of valuable. TLS enterprises make democratic marketing decisions,which are controlled by all stakeholders. Taking into account stakeholders marketing peculiarities, one suggested conceptual model of its development at the transportation and logistic system enterprises in cluster network. It includes formation of relations with all stakeholders

  15. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  16. INTEGRATING STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES IN A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO EXPLORING SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS: TRIPLE VALUE SIMULATION (3VS) MODELS IN COASTAL WATERSHEDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision makers often need assistance in understanding the dynamic interactions and linkages among economic, environmental and social systems in coastal watersheds. They also need scientific input to better evaluate the potential costs and benefits of intervention options. The US...

  17. Stakeholder involvement in Swedish nuclear waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elam, Mark; Sundqvist, Goeran [Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden). Section for Science and Technology Studies

    2006-09-15

    This report concerning Swedish nuclear waste management has been produced as part of a cross national research project: CARL - A Social Science Research Project into the Effects of Stakeholder involvement on Decision-Making in Radioactive Waste Management. Besides Sweden, the participating countries are Belgium, Canada, Finland, Slovenia and United Kingdom. A social science research team, working for three years, is in the first phase conducting research in their own countries in order to produce 6 country reports. During the next years the focus will shift to comparisons of stakeholder involvement practices in the participating countries. The report addresses current practices of Swedish nuclear waste management and their historical development. The main focus is on past, current and emerging patterns of stakeholder involvement in the siting of a deep repository for the final disposal of Sweden's spent nuclear fuel. The general questions attended to in the report are: Who are the main stakeholders, and how have they emerged and gained recognition as such? What are the issues currently subject to stakeholder involvement and how have these been decided upon? How is stakeholder involvement organized locally and nationally and how has this changed over time? How has stakeholder involvement gained acceptance as an activity of value in the siting of major waste facilities? The report have attempted to show the development of stakeholder involvement in the siting of a final repository for Sweden's spent nuclear fuel as resembling something other than a straightforward linear process of improvement and refinement. Stakeholder involvement has developed, over the past 15 years or so, into something more like a patchwork of different shapes and forms. Some of the forces that may well contribute to the further elaboration of the patchwork of stakeholder involvement have been pointed out, contingently modifying once more its overall colour and orientation. Questions

  18. Reducing epistemic errors in water quality modelling through high-frequency data and stakeholder collaboration: the case of an industrial spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Tobias; Inman, Alex; Paling, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Catchment management, as driven by legislation such as the EU WFD or grassroots initiatives, requires the apportionment of in-stream pollution to point and diffuse sources so that mitigation measures can be targeted and costs and benefits shared. Source apportionment is typically done via modelling. Given model imperfections and input data errors, it has become state-of-the-art to employ an uncertainty framework. However, what is not easily incorporated in such a framework, and currently much discussed in hydrology, are epistemic uncertainties, i.e. those uncertainties that relate to lack of knowledge about processes and data. For example, what if an otherwise negligible source suddenly matters because of an accidental pollution incident? In this paper we present such a case of epistemic error, an industrial spill ignored in a water quality model, demonstrate the bias of the resulting model simulations, and show how the error was discovered somewhat incidentally by auxiliary high-frequency data and finally corrected through the collective intelligence of a stakeholder network. We suggest that accidental pollution incidents like this are a wide-spread, though largely ignored, problem. Hence our discussion will reflect on the practice of catchment monitoring, modelling and management in general. The case itself occurred as part of ongoing modelling support in the Tamar catchment, one of the priority catchments of the UK government's new approach to managing water resources more decentralised and collaboratively. An Extended Export Coefficient Model (ECM+) had been developed with stakeholders to simulate transfers of nutrients (N & P), sediment and Faecal Coliforms from land to water and down the river network as a function of sewage treatment options, land use, livestock densities and farm management practices. In the process of updating the model for the hydrological years 2008-2012 an over-prediction of the annual average P concentration by the model was found at

  19. BANK BUSINESS MODELS IN BASE OF THE PYRAMID MARKETS IN AFRICA: AN ANALYSIS OF CO-CREATION BETWEEN BANKS AND STAKEHOLDERS

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The bottom of the pyramid (BoP) market in Africa is a significant opportunity for multinational banks. To address this banks’ need to increase their understanding of their BoP context, develop new approaches to overcome BoP obstacles, and use technology to create new commercially viable business models. The purpose of this study was to investigate how banks use co-creation with stakeholders to operate in BoP markets in Africa. The research explored how banks provide services to companies and ...

  20. Emulation Modeling with Bayesian Networks for Efficient Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, M. N.; Masterson, J.; Plant, N. G.; Gutierrez, B. T.; Thieler, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    Bayesian decision networks (BDN) have long been used to provide decision support in systems that require explicit consideration of uncertainty; applications range from ecology to medical diagnostics and terrorism threat assessments. Until recently, however, few studies have applied BDNs to the study of groundwater systems. BDNs are particularly useful for representing real-world system variability by synthesizing a range of hydrogeologic situations within a single simulation. Because BDN output is cast in terms of probability—an output desired by decision makers—they explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of a system. BDNs can thus serve as a more efficient alternative to other uncertainty characterization methods such as computationally demanding Monte Carlo analyses and others methods restricted to linear model analyses. We present a unique application of a BDN to a groundwater modeling analysis of the hydrologic response of Assateague Island, Maryland to sea-level rise. Using both input and output variables of the modeled groundwater response to different sea-level (SLR) rise scenarios, the BDN predicts the probability of changes in the depth to fresh water, which exerts an important influence on physical and biological island evolution. Input variables included barrier-island width, maximum island elevation, and aquifer recharge. The variability of these inputs and their corresponding outputs are sampled along cross sections in a single model run to form an ensemble of input/output pairs. The BDN outputs, which are the posterior distributions of water table conditions for the sea-level rise scenarios, are evaluated through error analysis and cross-validation to assess both fit to training data and predictive power. The key benefit for using BDNs in groundwater modeling analyses is that they provide a method for distilling complex model results into predictions with associated uncertainty, which is useful to decision makers. Future efforts incorporate

  1. IMPLICATIONS OF CSR ON CORPORATE STAKEHOLDERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crisan Catalina

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Companies’ strategies and values must be in accordance to stakeholders’ expectations and needs because their role and influences on companies’ activity are decisive for companies future development. Corporate Social Responsibility is a meaningful way through which companies can pursue sustainable development by having a coherent economical, social and environmental perspective on how the business should be managed. CSR must become an integral part of corporate management system, because it has a major role in distressing the relation between company and major stakeholders, both internally and externally. CSR is a global phenomenon, which draws the attention of a growing number of partisans, from public private and social sector. To demonstrate the applicability of the theoretical approaches deduced from the existing literature, the authors recourse to an empirical qualitative research, conducted through a questionnaire implemented to top managers, HR managers and heads of CSR departments within large companies that operate in Romania. The research is based on the analysis of a number of 87 questionnaires and aims to highlight major stakeholders and finding how companies’ responsible activities can influence stakeholders. This study is designed to highlight how prioritization of stakeholders influences CSR initiatives within large companies that operate in Romania, and to present a perspective of company’s approach towards shared value influence major stakeholders. The conclusions drawn have a greater relevance both theoretically and especially practically because provides insights on how large companies perceive CSR and how stakeholders influence responsible initiatives in emergent country like Romania where stereotypes are difficult to manage.

  2. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  3. A Decision-Making Model Applied to Career Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Christine; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A four-component model for career decision-making counseling relates each component to assessment questions and appropriate intervention strategies. The components are (1) conceptualization (definition of the problem); (2) enlargement of response repertoire (generation of alternatives); (3) identification of discriminative stimuli (consequences of…

  4. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by fi

  5. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  6. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  7. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  8. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  9. The Integrated Decision Modeling System (IDMS) User’s Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-05-01

    AL-TP-1 991-0009 AD-A23 6 033 THE INTEGRATED DECISION MODELING SYSTEM (IDMS) USER’S MANUAL IJonathan C. Fast John N. Taylor Metrica , Incorporated...Looper 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) . PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Metrica , Incorporated 8301 Broadway, Suite 215 San

  10. HYDRA: a decision support model for irrigation water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacucci, G.; Kabat, P.; Verrier, P.J.; Teixeira, J.L.; Steduto, P.; Bertanzon, G.; Giannerini, G.; Huygen, J.; Fernando, R.M.; Hooijer, A.A.; Simons, W.; Toller, G.; Tziallas, G.; Uhrik, C.; Broek, van den B.J.; Vera Munoz, J.; Yovchev, P.

    1995-01-01

    HYDRA introduces information modelling and decision-support systems (DSS) to farmers and authorities in European Mediterranean agriculture in order to improve irrigation practices at different levels. Key components of HYDRA-DSS are a hierarchical setof water balance and crop growth simulation

  11. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  12. African-Centered Education in Middle Schools: The Decision-Making Process in a Parental Engagement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks Dunn, Latrice N.

    2012-01-01

    The ways in which key stakeholders influencing decision-making processes in African-centered schools in urban areas are qualitatively different from that of parental involvement in mainstream schools; these perceived differences influence decision-making in various ways. The purpose of this research is to investigate ways in which parents,…

  13. Decision support model for assessing aquifer pollution hazard and prioritizing groundwater resources management in the wet Pampa plain, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

    2013-06-01

    This paper gives an account of the implementation of a decision support system for assessing aquifer pollution hazard and prioritizing subwatersheds for groundwater resources management in the southeastern Pampa plain of Argentina. The use of this system is demonstrated with an example from Dulce Stream Basin (1,000 km(2) encompassing 27 subwatersheds), which has high level of agricultural activities and extensive available data regarding aquifer geology. In the logic model, aquifer pollution hazard is assessed as a function of two primary topics: groundwater and soil conditions. This logic model shows the state of each evaluated landscape with respect to aquifer pollution hazard based mainly on the parameters of the DRASTIC and GOD models. The decision model allows prioritizing subwatersheds for groundwater resources management according to three main criteria including farming activities, agrochemical application, and irrigation use. Stakeholder participation, through interviews, in combination with expert judgment was used to select and weight each criterion. The resulting subwatershed priority map, by combining the logic and decision models, allowed identifying five subwatersheds in the upper and middle basin as the main aquifer protection areas. The results reasonably fit the natural conditions of the basin, identifying those subwatersheds with shallow water depth, loam-loam silt texture soil media and pasture land cover in the middle basin, and others with intensive agricultural activity, coinciding with the natural recharge area to the aquifer system. Major difficulties and some recommendations of applying this methodology in real-world situations are discussed.

  14. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions.

  15. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    , decision makers exhibit overlap in their views of what drives their business. The pork chain appears dominated by a focus on efficiency, technology, and quality control, though it also acknowledges communication as important. The salmon chain places more emphasis on new product development and good......Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains...

  16. Decision Tree Model for Non-Fatal Road Accident Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatin Ellisya Sapri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Non-fatal road accident injury has become a great concern as it is associated with injury and sometimes leads to the disability of the victims. Hence, this study aims to develop a model that explains the factors that contribute to non-fatal road accident injury severity. A sample data of 350 non-fatal road accident cases of the year 2016 were obtained from Kota Bharu District Police Headquarters, Kelantan. The explanatory variables include road geometry, collision type, accident time, accident causes, vehicle type, age, airbag, and gender. The predictive data mining techniques of decision tree model and multinomial logistic regression were used to model non-fatal road accident injury severity. Based on accuracy rate, decision tree with CART algorithm was found to be more accurate as compared to the logistic regression model. The factors that significantly contribute to non-fatal traffic crashes injury severity are accident cause, road geometry, vehicle type, age and collision type.

  17. In Search of a Stakeholder Management Theory for Third Sector Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Corrêa Gomes

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to contribute to the extant stakeholder theory by providing some first steps and guidance about the importance of the external environment in the decision-making of third sector organizations. Resource dependence, institutional theory and stakeholder theory provides the analytical basis for the investigation. A constructivist ontological approach guides the investigation, which has been carried out using the action research approach. Data has been collected by interviews, focus groups and participant observation. The whole set of texts (documents, transcriptions and reports are analyzed by content analysis. According to the results, there are some very strong stakeholders able to exert influence upon third sector organizations, to which it has to dedicated attention in order to meet their expectations. The strongest stakeholders are those in charge of managing the organization and those who provide financial resources to it. As a single case study in which the theory testing process is uppermost, the evidence gathered provides interesting insights for posterior research given that both theoretical and methodological frameworks have been tested. The investigation enlarges extant knowledge about stakeholder theory in proposing a model for mapping stakeholder influences on third sector organizations, originally devised for other situations.

  18. An Integrated Decision Making Model for Evaluation of Concept Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Green

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Conceptual design phase generates various design concepts and these are then evaluated in order to identify the 'Best’ concept. Identifying the Best concept is important because much of the product life cycle cost is decided in this phase. Various evaluation techniques are performed so as to aid decision-making. Different criteria are weighted against concepts for the comparison. This paper describes the research being carried out at the University of Glasgow on design evaluation. It presents the Application of fuzzy logic for design evaluation and proposes an integrated decision-making model for design evaluation. This is a part of research project that aims at developing a computer tool for evaluation process to aid decision-making.

  19. Cognitive modeling and multi criteria decision making in macroeconomic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonova Nina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in macroeconomics belongs to the class of ill-structured tasks with strong external factors interdependence, a limited number of management tools and experts groups' subjectivity. This paper suggests a technique of macroeconomic analysis which includes methods of cognitive modeling for formalizing a problem situation and scenario generation as a basis of the typical multicriteria decision making task. In turn, for solving this task is suggested a method based on measuring the distance to the 'ideal' solution with determining importance of criteria by finding objective, common component of all values measured by experts groups. For extracting this 'commonality' means of factor analysis are used. Such an approach allows separating of the objective part in experts' value from a subjective one, while the technique at whole provides formalization of macroeconomic problems and substantiation of decision-making in macroeconomics.

  20. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  1. Cost modelling as decision support when locating manufacturing facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Windmark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for cost estimation in developing decision supports for production location issues. The purpose is to provide a structured work procedure to be used by practitioners to derive the knowledge needed to make informed decisions on where to locate production. This paper present a special focus on how to integrate cost effects during the decision process. The work procedure and cost models were developed in close collaboration with a group of industrial partners. The result is a structure of cost estimation tools aligned to different steps in the work procedure. The cost models can facilitate both cost estimation for manufacturing a product under new preconditions, including support costs, and cost simulations to analyse the risks of wrong estimations and uncertainties in the input parameters. Future research aims to test the methodology in ongoing transfer projects to further understand difficulties in managing global production systems. In existing models and methods presented in the literature, cost is usually estimated on a too aggregated level to be suitable for decision support regarding production system design. The cost estimation methodology presented here provides new insights on cost driving factors related to the production system.

  2. An Integrated Model for Optimization Oriented Decision Aiding and Rule Based Decision Making in Fuzzy Environment

    OpenAIRE

    A. Yousefli; M. Ghazanfari; M. B. Abiri

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a fuzzy decision aid system is developed base on new concepts that presented in the field of fuzzy decision making in fuzzy environment (FDMFE). This framework aids decision makers to understand different circumstances of an uncertain problem that may occur in the future. Also, to keep decision maker from the optimization problem complexities, a decision support system, which can be replaced by optimization problem, is presented to make optimum or near optimum decisions without ...

  3. Acid deposition: decision framework. Volume 1. Description of conceptual framework and decision-tree models. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balson, W.E.; Boyd, D.W.; North, D.W.

    1982-08-01

    Acid precipitation and dry deposition of acid materials have emerged as an important environmental issue affecting the electric utility industry. This report presents a framework for the analysis of decisions on acid deposition. The decision framework is intended as a means of summarizing scientific information and uncertainties on the relation between emissions from electric utilities and other sources, acid deposition, and impacts on ecological systems. The methodology for implementing the framework is that of decision analysis, which provides a quantitative means of analyzing decisions under uncertainty. The decisions of interest include reductions in sulfur oxide and other emissions thought to be precursors of acid deposition, mitigation of acid deposition impacts through means such as liming of waterways and soils, and choice of strategies for research. The report first gives an overview of the decision framework and explains the decision analysis methods with a simplified caricature example. The state of scientific information and the modeling assumptions for the framework are then discussed for the three main modules of the framework: emissions and control technologies; long-range transport and chemical conversion in the atmosphere; and ecological impacts. The report then presents two versions of a decision tree model that implements the decision framework. The basic decision tree addresses decisions on emissions control and mitigation in the immediate future and a decade hence, and it includes uncertainties in the long-range transport and ecological impacts. The research emphasis decision tree addresses the effect of research funding on obtaining new information as the basis for future decisions. Illustrative data and calculations using the decision tree models are presented.

  4. Stakeholder requirements for commercially successful wave energy converter farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babarit, Aurélien; Bull, Diana; Dykes, Katherine; Malins, Robert; Nielsen, Kim; Costello, Ronan; Roberts, Jesse; Bittencourt Ferreira, Claudio; Kennedy, Ben; Weber, Jochem

    2017-12-01

    In this study, systems engineering techniques are applied to wave energy to identify and specify stakeholders' requirements for a commercially successful wave energy farm. The focus is on the continental scale utility market. Lifecycle stages and stakeholders are identified. Stakeholders' needs across the whole lifecycle of the wave energy farm are analyzed. A list of 33 stakeholder requirements are identified and specified. This list of requirements should serve as components of a technology performance level metric that could be used by investors and funding agencies to make informed decisions when allocating resources. It is hoped that the technology performance level metric will accelerate wave energy conversion technology convergence.

  5. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-06

    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  6. Markov decision processes and the belief-desire-intention model

    CERN Document Server

    Simari, Gerardo I

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we provide a treatment of the relationship between two models that have been widely used in the implementation of autonomous agents: the Belief DesireIntention (BDI) model and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We start with an informal description of the relationship, identifying the common features of the two approaches and the differences between them. Then we hone our understanding of these differences through an empirical analysis of the performance of both models on the TileWorld testbed. This allows us to show that even though the MDP model displays consistently better beha

  7. Barriers and opportunities for evidence-based health service planning: the example of developing a Decision Analytic Model to plan services for sexually transmitted infections in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aicken Catherine R H

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision Analytic Models (DAMs are established means of evidence-synthesis to differentiate between health interventions. They have mainly been used to inform clinical decisions and health technology assessment at the national level, yet could also inform local health service planning. For this, a DAM must take into account the needs of the local population, but also the needs of those planning its services. Drawing on our experiences from stakeholder consultations, where we presented the potential utility of a DAM for planning local health services for sexually transmitted infections (STIs in the UK, and the evidence it could use to inform decisions regarding different combinations of service provision, in terms of their costs, cost-effectiveness, and public health outcomes, we discuss the barriers perceived by stakeholders to the use of DAMs to inform service planning for local populations, including (1 a tension between individual and population perspectives; (2 reductionism; and (3 a lack of transparency regarding models, their assumptions, and the motivations of those generating models. Discussion Technological advances, including improvements in computing capability, are facilitating the development and use of models such as DAMs for health service planning. However, given the current scepticism among many stakeholders, encouraging informed critique and promoting trust in models to aid health service planning is vital, for example by making available and explicit the methods and assumptions underlying each model, associated limitations, and the process of validation. This can be achieved by consultation and training with the intended users, and by allowing access to the workings of the models, and their underlying assumptions (e.g. via the internet, to show how they actually work. Summary Constructive discussion and education will help build a consensus on the purposes of STI services, the need for service planning to

  8. Neuro-Based Artificial Intelligence Model for Loan Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shorouq F. Eletter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Despite the increase in consumer loans defaults and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use artificial intelligence software systems for supporting loan decisions. Approach: This study developed a proposed model that identifies artificial neural network as an enabling tool for evaluating credit applications to support loan decisions in the Jordanian Commercial banks. A multi-layer feed-forward neural network with backpropagation learning algorithm was used to build up the proposed model. Results: Different representative cases of loan applications were considered based on the guidelines of different banks in Jordan, to validate the neural network model. Conclusion: The results indicated that artificial neural networks are a successful technology that can be used in loan application evaluation in the Jordanian commercial banks.

  9. Dynamic Decision Making for Graphical Models Applied to Oil Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Martinelli, Gabriele; Hauge, Ragnar

    2012-01-01

    We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.

  10. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  11. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  12. Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

    2008-09-01

    Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

  13. Limitations of multimedia models for use in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, C C; Obenshain, K R; Regens, J L; Whipple, C G

    2001-09-01

    The United States currently is engaged in a complex, multi-billion dollar effort to cleanup a legacy of both privately- and federally-owned hazardous waste sites. Decisions regarding the best approach for remediation of these sites often are based on the analysis of potential risks to human health and the environment. A cornerstone of such analysis is the frequent use of computerized multimedia environmental transport models, to evaluate the large quantities of information necessary to understand the present and future implications of contamination at a site. One barrier to wide-spread use of this analytical procedure is the view that results obtained using computer models are highly dependent on user input, and therefore, subject to manipulation. It is widely recognized that for decisions to be both credible and implementable, the public must have confidence in both the scientific basis for judgments involved and the decision processes employed (NRC, 1983). Our purpose in this article is to overview the difficulties associated with application of multimedia models to real world problems and the contribution these models can make to technically sound estimates of exposure and risk.

  14. Environmental Assessments and Stakeholder Involvement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wesolowski, Cassandra [Univ. of Manchester, School of Environment and Development (United Kingdom). Planning and Landscape

    2006-09-15

    Directives and legislation on EIA and SEA need to provide more guidance on how and when public participation should be used. There are now several examples of how well public participation can be performed and the methods are becoming more proactive and innovative. By increasing the role of public participation within the Environmental Assessment process, plans, programmes and projects will become more publicly acceptable. There does need to be a balance as to where public participation is performed in the system, as too much can be a stress on resources and time, as well as producing ineffective results. Key stages such as scoping, preparing the environmental statement or report and decision-making need to be highlighted for the benefits public participation can have. The Aarhus Convention is certainly making a difference in the UK; however it is difficult to judge exactly how much difference yet. It was only fully implemented in the UK in 2005 although some Authorities were applying the three pillars prior to implementation. It is not clear how aware the general public are of the Convention and their rights. Empowering communities in the UK. will communities for decision-making in Environmental Assessments? Providing the public with resources to enable them to fully engage in the process will improve the participation and increase their confidence, but how will this increase their influence within the decision-making process? Ultimately, should the stakeholders and public just influence the incremental decisions made in Environmental Assessments or have more responsibility within the major decisions taken? It will be interesting to see how these issues are addressed over the coming years.

  15. Aggregation of Environmental Model Data for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    Weather forecasts and warnings must be prepared and then delivered so as to reach their intended audience in good time to enable effective decision-making. An effort to mitigate these difficulties was studied at a Workshop, 'Sustaining National Meteorological Services - Strengthening WMO Regional and Global Centers' convened, June , 2013, by the World Bank, WMO and the US National Weather Service (NWS). The skill and accuracy of atmospheric forecasts from deterministic models have increased and there are now ensembles of such models that improve decisions to protect life, property and commerce. The NWS production of numerical weather prediction products result in model output from global and high resolution regional ensemble forecasts. Ensembles are constructed by changing the initial conditions to make a 'cloud' of forecasts that attempt to span the space of possible atmospheric realizations which can quantify not only the most likely forecast, but also the uncertainty. This has led to an unprecedented increase in data production and information content from higher resolution, multi-model output and secondary calculations. One difficulty is to obtain the needed subset of data required to estimate the probability of events, and report the information. The calibration required to reliably estimate the probability of events, and honing of threshold adjustments to reduce false alarms for decision makers is also needed. To meet the future needs of the ever-broadening user community and address these issues on a national and international basis, the weather service implemented the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS provides real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate, ocean and weather model data and delivers high availability content services as part of NOAA's official real time data dissemination at its new NCWCP web operations center. An important aspect of the server's abilities is to aggregate the matrix of

  16. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2010-01-01

    A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation

  17. Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

  18. A strategic decision-making model considering the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Shih-Chang; Hung, Shiu-Wan

    2014-01-15

    Incorporating sustainability into supply chain management has become a critical issue driven by pressures from governments, customers, and various stakeholder groups over the past decade. This study proposes a strategic decision-making model considering both the operational costs and social costs caused by the carbon dioxide emissions from operating such a supply chain network for sustainable supply chain management. This model was used to evaluate carbon dioxide emissions and operational costs under different scenarios in an apparel manufacturing supply chain network. The results showed that the higher the social cost rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the lower the amount of the emission of carbon dioxide. The results also suggested that a legislation that forces the enterprises to bear the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from their economic activities is an effective approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

  19. The Cognitive Complexity in Modelling the Group Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barna Iantovics

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates for some basic contextual factors (such
    us the problem complexity, the users' creativity and the problem space complexity the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the group decision processes (GDP in e-meetings. The analysis is done by conducting a socio-simulation experiment for an envisioned collaborative software tool that acts as a stigmergic environment for modelling the GDP. The simulation results revels some interesting design guidelines for engineering some contextual functionalities that minimize the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the GDP.

  20. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  1. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  2. A Soft Computing Model for Physicians' Decision Process

    CERN Document Server

    Biswas, Siddharths Sankar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the author presents a kind of Soft Computing Technique, mainly an application of fuzzy set theory of Prof. Zadeh [16], on a problem of Medical Experts Systems. The choosen problem is on design of a physician's decision model which can take crisp as well as fuzzy data as input, unlike the traditional models. The author presents a mathematical model based on fuzzy set theory for physician aided evaluation of a complete representation of information emanating from the initial interview including patient past history, present symptoms, and signs observed upon physical examination and results of clinical and diagnostic tests.

  3. Modeling and Testing Landslide Hazard Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a decision tree model for specifying the importance of 21 factors causing the landslides in a wide area of Penang Island, Malaysia. These factors are vegetation cover, distance from the fault line, slope angle, cross curvature, slope aspect, distance from road, geology, diagonal length, longitude curvature, rugosity, plan curvature, elevation, rain perception, soil texture, surface area, distance from drainage, roughness, land cover, general curvature, tangent curvature, and profile curvature. Decision tree models are used for prediction, classification, and factors importance and are usually represented by an easy to interpret tree like structure. Four models were created using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, Classification and Regression Tree (CRT, and Quick-Unbiased-Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST. Twenty-one factors were extracted using digital elevation models (DEMs and then used as input variables for the models. A data set of 137570 samples was selected for each variable in the analysis, where 68786 samples represent landslides and 68786 samples represent no landslides. 10-fold cross-validation was employed for testing the models. The highest accuracy was achieved using Exhaustive CHAID (82.0% compared to CHAID (81.9%, CRT (75.6%, and QUEST (74.0% model. Across the four models, five factors were identified as most important factors which are slope angle, distance from drainage, surface area, slope aspect, and cross curvature.

  4. Model Checking with Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Pierre; Siminiceanu, Radu I.

    2010-01-01

    We describe an algebra of Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams (EVMDDs) to encode arithmetic functions and its implementation in a model checking library. We provide efficient algorithms for manipulating EVMDDs and review the theoretical time complexity of these algorithms for all basic arithmetic and relational operators. We also demonstrate that the time complexity of the generic recursive algorithm for applying a binary operator on EVMDDs is no worse than that of Multi- Terminal Decision Diagrams. We have implemented a new symbolic model checker with the intention to represent in one formalism the best techniques available at the moment across a spectrum of existing tools. Compared to the CUDD package, our tool is several orders of magnitude faster

  5. USING THE SOFTWARE MICROSOFT OFFICE EXCEL FOR FINANCIAL MODELING DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bălăc escu Aniela

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of the software package is today indispensable for modeling of financial decisions. Business organizations will invariably make greater demands of the software than individual users. Excel is an option along with other software applications tailored to the market, and bespoke (in-house software packages. It should be noted that Excel is the leader in the market and as such does set a benchmark.

  6. Reverse engineering cellular decisions for hybrid reconfigurable network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Howard A.; Saranak, Jureepan; Foster, Kenneth W.

    2011-06-01

    Cells as microorganisms and within multicellular organisms make robust decisions. Knowing how these complex cells make decisions is essential to explain, predict or mimic their behavior. The discovery of multi-layer multiple feedback loops in the signaling pathways of these modular hybrid systems suggests their decision making is sophisticated. Hybrid systems coordinate and integrate signals of various kinds: discrete on/off signals, continuous sensory signals, and stochastic and continuous fluctuations to regulate chemical concentrations. Such signaling networks can form reconfigurable networks of attractors and repellors giving them an extra level of organization that has resilient decision making built in. Work on generic attractor and repellor networks and on the already identified feedback networks and dynamic reconfigurable regulatory topologies in biological cells suggests that biological systems probably exploit such dynamic capabilities. We present a simple behavior of the swimming unicellular alga Chlamydomonas that involves interdependent discrete and continuous signals in feedback loops. We show how to rigorously verify a hybrid dynamical model of a biological system with respect to a declarative description of a cell's behavior. The hybrid dynamical systems we use are based on a unification of discrete structures and continuous topologies developed in prior work on convergence spaces. They involve variables of discrete and continuous types, in the sense of type theory in mathematical logic. A unification such as afforded by convergence spaces is necessary if one wants to take account of the affect of the structural relationships within each type on the dynamics of the system.

  7. Corporate Stakeholding and Globalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2016-01-01

    Most corporations consider their stakeholders to be those, who can be defined in a relatively narrow periphery. Customers, workers, investors, authorities, neighbours, suppliers and various interest groups, for instance NGOs. However, during the last decades, phenomena such as the financial crisis...

  8. Disinvestments in practice: overcoming resistance to change through a sociotechnical approach with local stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airoldi, Mara

    2013-12-01

    For health care, economists have developed cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as a "rational," analytic tool to set priorities. Attempts to use CEA to decide how to cut expenditures, however, have been met with stakeholders' resistance. This article presents an illustrative case study of the application of an approach explicitly designed to engage stakeholders with conflicting objectives in confronting tightening budgets. The outcome of this process, which engaged a group of stakeholders including patients, caregivers, clinicians, and managers, was a strategy that reconfigured services to produce more health gain at reduced total cost. I argue that the key factors that led to overcoming resistance to change were (1) the collective character of the deliberations; (2) the analysis of the whole pathway; (3) the presence of patients; and (4) the development of a model based on CEA principles, which provided a credible rationale for difficult decisions.

  9. Modelling Framework to Support Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tariq Masood

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic model-driven decision-making is crucial to design, engineer, and transform manufacturing enterprises (MEs. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is challenging as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of process-resource systems and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. This paper presents a novel systematic enhanced integrated modelling framework to facilitate transformation of MEs, which is centred on CIMOSA. Application of the new framework in an automotive industrial case study is also presented. The following new contributions to knowledge are made: (1 an innovative structured framework that can support various decisions in design, optimisation, and control to reconfigure MEs; (2 an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of MEs; and (3 an automotive industrial case application showing benefits in terms of reduced lead time and cost with improved responsiveness of process-resource system with a special focus on PPC. It is anticipated that the new framework is not limited to only automotive industry but has a wider scope of application. Therefore, it would be interesting to extend its testing with different configurations and decision-making levels.

  10. Extending stakeholder theory to promote resource management initiatives to key stakeholders: a case study of water transfers in Alberta, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafreniere, Katherine C; Deshpande, Sameer; Bjornlund, Henning; Hunter, M Gordon

    2013-11-15

    Many attempts to implement resource management initiatives in Canadian and international communities have been resisted by stakeholders despite inclusion of their representatives in the decision-making process. Managers' failure to understand stakeholders' perspectives when proposing initiatives is a potential cause of this resistance. Our study uses marketing thought to enhance stakeholder theory by bringing in an audience-centric perspective. We attempt to understand how stakeholders perceive their interests in an organization and consequently decide how to influence that organization. By doing so, we investigate whether a disconnect exists between the perceptions of managers and those of stakeholders. Natural resource managers can utilize this knowledge to garner stakeholder support for the organization and its activities. We support this claim with findings from a water transfer plebiscite held in the Canadian province of Alberta. Sixteen personal interviews employing narrative inquiry were conducted to document voters' (i.e., irrigators') interpretations.

  11. Identity-driven differences in stakeholder concerns about hunting wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lute, Michelle L; Bump, Adam; Gore, Meredith L

    2014-01-01

    Whereas past wolf management in the United States was restricted to recovery, managers must now contend with publicly contentious post-recovery issues including regulated hunting seasons. Understanding stakeholder concerns associated with hunting can inform stakeholder engagement, communication, and policy development and evaluation. Social identity theory (SIT) has been used to understand how groups interact, why they conflict, and how collaboration may be achieved. Applying SIT to stakeholder conflicts about wolf hunting may help delineate groups according to their concern about, support for or opposition to the policy choice of hunting wolves. Our objective was to assess concerns about hunting as a tool to resolve conflict in Michigan, using SIT as a framework. We used a mixed-modal sampling approach (e.g., paper, Internet) with wolf hunting-related public meeting participants in March 2013. Survey questions focused on 12 concerns previously identified as associated with hunting as a management tool to resolve conflict. Respondents (n  =  666) cared greatly about wolves but were divided over hunting wolves. Wolf conflicts, use of science in policy decisions, and maintaining a wolf population were the highest ranked concerns. Principle components analysis reduced concerns into three factors that explained 50.7% of total variance; concerns crystallized over justifications for hunting. General linear models revealed a lack of geographic influence on care, fear and support for hunting related to wolves. These findings challenge assumptions about regional differences and suggest a strong role for social identity in driving dichotomized public perceptions in wildlife management.

  12. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  13. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    : Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains......Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains...... in promoting the market orientation of value chains. Originality: This article offers three novel ideas: using the concept of mental models as a possible mediator between factors that influence the degree of market orientation and market-oriented activity; using a laddering method to elicit mental models...

  14. Multi-stakeholder Virtual Dialogue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kornum, Niels; Mühlbacher, Hans

    2013-01-01

    This article introduces the special issue on multi-stakeholder virtual dialogue. Research as well as managerial practice in marketing has traditionally focused on single stakeholders and a one-way communication perspective. This special issue takes a novel approach by directing attention to the s......This article introduces the special issue on multi-stakeholder virtual dialogue. Research as well as managerial practice in marketing has traditionally focused on single stakeholders and a one-way communication perspective. This special issue takes a novel approach by directing attention...... success. While marketing literature increasingly recognizes that divers stakeholders have an impact on a company''s success, little is known about how virtual multi-stakeholder dialogue changes marketing research and management. This special issue provides insights on what roles stakeholders may play...... with what impact in virtual company-related interaction. The introductory article reviews seven articles and discusses their contributions to stakeholder marketing and virtual stakeholder interaction....

  15. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  16. Markov chain decision model for urinary incontinence procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sameer; Ghildayal, Nidhi; Ghildayal, Neha

    2017-03-13

    Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI) is a common chronic health condition, a problem specifically among elderly women that impacts quality of life negatively. However, UI is usually viewed as likely result of old age, and as such is generally not evaluated or even managed appropriately. Many treatments are available to manage incontinence, such as bladder training and numerous surgical procedures such as Burch colposuspension and Sling for UI which have high success rates. The purpose of this paper is to analyze which of these popular surgical procedures for UI is effective. Design/methodology/approach This research employs randomized, prospective studies to obtain robust cost and utility data used in the Markov chain decision model for examining which of these surgical interventions is more effective in treating women with stress UI based on two measures: number of quality adjusted life years (QALY) and cost per QALY. Treeage Pro Healthcare software was employed in Markov decision analysis. Findings Results showed the Sling procedure is a more effective surgical intervention than the Burch. However, if a utility greater than certain utility value, for which both procedures are equally effective, is assigned to persistent incontinence, the Burch procedure is more effective than the Sling procedure. Originality/value This paper demonstrates the efficacy of a Markov chain decision modeling approach to study the comparative effectiveness analysis of available treatments for patients with UI, an important public health issue, widely prevalent among elderly women in developed and developing countries. This research also improves upon other analyses using a Markov chain decision modeling process to analyze various strategies for treating UI.

  17. LATEST: A model of saccadic decisions in space and time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatler, Benjamin W; Brockmole, James R; Carpenter, R H S

    2017-04-01

    Many of our actions require visual information, and for this it is important to direct the eyes to the right place at the right time. Two or three times every second, we must decide both when and where to direct our gaze. Understanding these decisions can reveal the moment-to-moment information priorities of the visual system and the strategies for information sampling employed by the brain to serve ongoing behavior. Most theoretical frameworks and models of gaze control assume that the spatial and temporal aspects of fixation point selection depend on different mechanisms. We present a single model that can simultaneously account for both when and where we look. Underpinning this model is the theoretical assertion that each decision to move the eyes is an evaluation of the relative benefit expected from moving the eyes to a new location compared with that expected by continuing to fixate the current target. The eyes move when the evidence that favors moving to a new location outweighs that favoring staying at the present location. Our model provides not only an account of when the eyes move, but also what will be fixated. That is, an analysis of saccade timing alone enables us to predict where people look in a scene. Indeed our model accounts for fixation selection as well as (and often better than) current computational models of fixation selection in scene viewing. (PsycINFO Database Record

  18. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  19. Data acquisition in modeling using neural networks and decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sika

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a comparison of selected models from area of artificial neural networks and decision trees in relation with actualconditions of foundry processes. The work contains short descriptions of used algorithms, their destination and method of data preparation,which is a domain of work of Data Mining systems. First part concerns data acquisition realized in selected iron foundry, indicating problems to solve in aspect of casting process modeling. Second part is a comparison of selected algorithms: a decision tree and artificial neural network, that is CART (Classification And Regression Trees and BP (Backpropagation in MLP (Multilayer Perceptron networks algorithms.Aim of the paper is to show an aspect of selecting data for modeling, cleaning it and reducing, for example due to too strong correlationbetween some of recorded process parameters. Also, it has been shown what results can be obtained using two different approaches:first when modeling using available commercial software, for example Statistica, second when modeling step by step using Excel spreadsheetbasing on the same algorithm, like BP-MLP. Discrepancy of results obtained from these two approaches originates from a priorimade assumptions. Mentioned earlier Statistica universal software package, when used without awareness of relations of technologicalparameters, i.e. without user having experience in foundry and without scheduling ranks of particular parameters basing on acquisition, can not give credible basis to predict the quality of the castings. Also, a decisive influence of data acquisition method has been clearly indicated, the acquisition should be conducted according to repetitive measurement and control procedures. This paper is based on about 250 records of actual data, for one assortment for 6 month period, where only 12 data sets were complete (including two that were used for validation of neural network and useful for creating a model. It is definitely too

  20. A Decision Model for Selecting Participants in Supply Chain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In order to satisfy the rapid changing requirements of customers, enterprises must cooperate with each other to form supply chain. The first and the most important stage in the forming of supply chain is the selection of participants. The article proposes a two-staged decision model to select partners. The first stage is the inter company comparison in each business process to select highefficiency candidate based on inside variables. The next stage is to analyse the combination of different candidates in order to select the most perfect partners according to a goal-programming model.

  1. Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

  2. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player...... to or divergence from these. Essentially, at each step the action of the human is compared to what actions a number of reinforcement-learned agents would have taken in the same situation, where each agent is trained using a different reward scheme. Finally, extensions are outlined for adapting the agents...

  3. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  4. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  5. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  6. The Dutch model for legalizing end-of-life decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kater, Loes

    2003-01-01

    The Dutch experience with euthanasia is used as a model for other countries for regulating end-of-life decisions. Several elements of the Dutch debate, for example the definition of euthanasia, are copied and imported to other debates. This paper studies the specific Dutch construction of regulating euthanasia and the concept of the requirements of prudent practice. The requirements of prudent practice embody the conditions for careful medical management in end-of-life decisions. It is argued that the requirements of prudent practice are a relatively acceptable way of regulating the Dutch practice of euthanasia as they are embedded in an elaborate network of relations, standards and values. As a consequence of this local character and the way the requirements of prudent practice relate to the Dutch practice of euthanasia it is difficult to simply transport them to other countries in order to regulate euthanasia.

  7. The Controlling Model as Management Support in Decision- Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berislav Bolfek

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available business system to operate successfully and make profit, which represents the success criterion for each business system on the market. For managing the business result, the management of business systems needs different types of information on which numerous managerial decisions are based. That is why it is necessary to develop and set a Business System Controlling Model which would have the capability to transform available data into the information necessary for managerial decision-making. The above-mentioned model is prepared in such a way that the whole process of the transformation of the data into required information is carried out in two interconnected steps which have to be made in every single case and situation. However, there are a certain number of different activities within each step which do not have to be performed in every case. The forecast presented in the form of the Profit Forecast Procedure and the Liquidity Forecast Procedure represents the essence of the Business System Controlling Model. The Business System Controlling Model developed and set out in this paper should enable the business system management to evaluate future business activities, in addition to monitoring the past and present business activities. It is precisely the evaluation of the future business activities that, in today’s conditions of greater market globalization and internationalization, should help the business system management to control the business result in a better and easier way. In this way, the Business System Controlling Model represents a new tool in the sense of management support in making various business decisions.

  8. Managing Sustainable Development Conflicts: The Impact of Stakeholders in Small-Scale Hydropower Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkin, Laura Jane; Kemp, Paul S.; Williams, Ian D.; Harwood, Ian A.

    2012-06-01

    The growing importance of the environment and its management has simultaneously emphasized the benefits of hydroelectric power and its environmental costs. In a changing policy climate, giving importance to renewable energy development and environmental protection, conflict potential between stakeholders is considerable. Navigation of conflict determines the scheme constructed, making sustainable hydropower a function of human choice. To meet the needs of practitioners, greater understanding of stakeholder conflict is needed. This paper presents an approach to illustrate the challenges that face small-scale hydropower development as perceived by the stakeholders involved, and how they influence decision-making. Using Gordleton Mill, Hampshire (UK), as an illustrative case, soft systems methodology, a systems modeling approach, was adopted. Through individual interviews, a range of problems were identified and conceptually modeled. Stakeholder bias towards favoring economic appraisal over intangible social and environmental aspects was identified; costs appeared more influential than profit. Conceptual evaluation of the requirements to meet a stakeholder-approved solution suggested a complex linear systems approach, considerably different from the real-life situation. The stakeholders introduced bias to problem definition by transferring self-perceived issues onto the project owner. Application of soft systems methodology caused a shift in project goals away from further investigation towards consideration of project suitability. The challenge of sustainable hydropower is global, with a need to balance environmental, economic, and social concerns. It is clear that in this type of conflict, an individual can significantly influence outcomes; highlighting the need for more structured approaches to deal with stakeholder conflicts in sustainable hydropower development.

  9. Managing sustainable development conflicts: the impact of stakeholders in small-scale hydropower schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkin, Laura Jane; Kemp, Paul S; Williams, Ian D; Harwood, Ian A

    2012-06-01

    The growing importance of the environment and its management has simultaneously emphasized the benefits of hydroelectric power and its environmental costs. In a changing policy climate, giving importance to renewable energy development and environmental protection, conflict potential between stakeholders is considerable. Navigation of conflict determines the scheme constructed, making sustainable hydropower a function of human choice. To meet the needs of practitioners, greater understanding of stakeholder conflict is needed. This paper presents an approach to illustrate the challenges that face small-scale hydropower development as perceived by the stakeholders involved, and how they influence decision-making. Using Gordleton Mill, Hampshire (UK), as an illustrative case, soft systems methodology, a systems modeling approach, was adopted. Through individual interviews, a range of problems were identified and conceptually modeled. Stakeholder bias towards favoring economic appraisal over intangible social and environmental aspects was identified; costs appeared more influential than profit. Conceptual evaluation of the requirements to meet a stakeholder-approved solution suggested a complex linear systems approach, considerably different from the real-life situation. The stakeholders introduced bias to problem definition by transferring self-perceived issues onto the project owner. Application of soft systems methodology caused a shift in project goals away from further investigation towards consideration of project suitability. The challenge of sustainable hydropower is global, with a need to balance environmental, economic, and social concerns. It is clear that in this type of conflict, an individual can significantly influence outcomes; highlighting the need for more structured approaches to deal with stakeholder conflicts in sustainable hydropower development.

  10. Advancing theories, models and measurement for an interprofessional approach to shared decision making in primary care: a study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frosch Dominick

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision-making (SDM is defined as a process by which a healthcare choice is made by practitioners together with the patient. Although many diagnostic and therapeutic processes in primary care integrate more than one type of health professional, most SDM conceptual models and theories appear to be limited to the patient-physician dyad. The objectives of this study are to develop a conceptual model and propose a set of measurement tools for enhancing an interprofessional approach to SDM in primary healthcare. Methods/Design An inventory of SDM conceptual models, theories and measurement tools will be created. Models will be critically assessed and compared according to their strengths, limitations, acknowledgement of interprofessional roles in the process of SDM and relevance to primary care. Based on the theory analysis, a conceptual model and a set of measurements tools that could be used to enhance an interprofessional approach to SDM in primary healthcare will be proposed and pilot-tested with key stakeholders and primary healthcare teams. Discussion This study protocol is informative for researchers and clinicians interested in designing and/or conducting future studies and educating health professionals to improve how primary healthcare teams foster active participation of patients in making health decisions using a more coordinated approach.

  11. Shareholder, stakeholder-owner or broad stakeholder maximization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mygind, Niels

    2004-01-01

    including the shareholders of a company. Although it may be the ultimate goal for Corporate Social Responsibility to achieve this kind of maximization, broad stakeholder maximization is quite difficult to give a precise definition. There is no one-dimensional measure to add different stakeholder benefits...... by other stakeholders' interests. These constraints vary for dif-ferent stakeholder owners and new standards for Corporate Social Responsibility and more active political consumers will strengthen these constraints....

  12. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  13. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  14. Illuminating Tradespace Decisions Using Efficient Experimental Space-Filling Designs for the Engineered Resilient System Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-30

    decision analysis ( MODA ) to help inform the design decision. We use an additive value model that incorporates a composite perspective of multiple...stakeholders and competing objectives. We use the philosophy of value-focused thinking and the mathematics of MODA to arrive at a final design decision...identify a narrow set of viable system alternatives. The set of alternatives are then analyzed using multi-objective decision analysis ( MODA ) models

  15. Microfoundations for stakeholder theory: Managing stakeholders with heterogeneous motives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bridoux, F.; Stoelhorst, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    Instrumental stakeholder theory proposes a positive relationship between fairness toward stakeholders and firm performance. Yet, some firms are successful with an arms-length approach to stakeholder management, based on bargaining power rather than fairness. We address this puzzle by relaxing the as

  16. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    2008-01-01

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level exper

  17. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level

  18. Exploring the experiences of client involvement in medication decisions using a shared decision making model: results of a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goscha, Richard; Rapp, Charles

    2015-04-01

    This qualitative study explored a newly introduced model of shared decision making (CommonGround) and how psychiatric medications were experienced by clients, prescribers, case managers and peer support staff. Of the twelve client subjects, six were highly engaged in shared decision-making and six were not. Five notable differences were found between the two groups including the presence of a goal, use of personal medicine, and the behavior of case managers and prescribers. Implications for a shared decision making model in psychiatry are discussed.

  19. A value model for evaluating homeland security decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Ralph L; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2011-09-01

    One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, metrics to measure each objective, a utility function, and value tradeoffs relevant for making homeland security investments. Together, these elements form a homeland security value model. This article develops a homeland security value model based on literature reviews, a survey, and experience with building value models. The purposes of the article are to motivate the use of a value model for homeland security decision making and to illustrate its use to assess terrorism risks, assess the benefits of countermeasures, and develop a severity index for terrorism attacks. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Knowledge model-based decision support system for maize management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Yinqiao; ZHAO Chuande; WANG Wenxin; LI Cundong

    2007-01-01

    Based on the relationship between crops and circumstances,a dynamic knowledge model for maize management with wide applicability was developed using the system method and mathematical modeling technique.With soft component characteristics incorporated,a component and digital knowledge model-based decision support system for maize management was established on the Visual C++platform.This system realized six major functions:target yield calculation,design of pre-sowing plan,prediction of regular indices,real-time management control,expert knowledge reference and system administration.Cases were studied on the target yield knowledge model with data sets that include different eco-sites,yield levels of the last three years,and fertilizer and water management levels.The results indicated that this system overcomes the shortcomings of traditional expert systems and planting patterns,such as sitespecific conditions and narrow applicability,and can be used more under different conditions and environments.This system provides a scientific knowledge system and a broad decision-making tool for maize management.

  1. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, D.; Maule, A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

  2. STAKEHOLDER LINKAGES FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    stakeholder interactions for SLM in the study areas. Key words: Stakeholders; farmer-expert linkages; resource management; Ethiopia ... management practices in many parts of Africa. Farmers .... chosen with consideration of distance to the.

  3. Study on Auditing Decision-making and Stakeholder Relationship of Large-scale Logistics Enterprises:A Temporary Customer Perspective%基于客商视角的大型物流企业审计决策与利益相关者关系研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胥晓凤

    2014-01-01

    指出物流企业审计决策与物流企业利益相关者因其与企业利益关系远近不同而形成了不同的影响关系,客商由于其在供应链中独特的地位和效应,在物流企业利益相关者中具有一定的代表性,并基于供应链上的客商视角分析了大型物流企业审计决策方向以及审计决策对利益相关者的关系影响。%In this paper, we pointed out that due to the different closeness in their interested relationship with the enterprises, the auditing decision-makers and stakeholders had different influence on the logistics enterprises and since the temporary customers had a unique status in and impact on the supply chains of the logistics enterprises, they were representative stakeholders of the logistics enterprises. At the end, from the perspective of a temporary customer in the supply chain environment, we analyzed the direction of the auditing decision-making of the large-scale logistics enterprises and its influence of stakeholder relationship.

  4. Using role analysis to plan for stakeholder involvement: a Wyoming case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    2006-01-01

    Prior to implementing laws and policies regulating water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation, natural resource managers often solicit public input. Concomitantly, managers are continually seeking more effective ways to involve stakeholders. In the autumn of 1999, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department sought to develop a state management plan for its portion of the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population if it was removed from the federal threatened species list. A key aspect of developing this plan was the involvement of federal, state, and local agencies, representatives from nongovernmental organizations, and citizens. Wyoming wildlife managers asked researchers from the United States Geological Survey to demonstrate how the Legal-Institutional Analysis Model could be used to initiate this process. To address these needs, we conducted similar workshops for a group of state and federal managers or staffers and a broad group of stakeholders. Although we found similarities among the workshop groups, we also recorded differences in perspective between stakeholder groups. The managers group acknowledged the importance of varied stakeholders but viewed the grizzly bear planning process as one centered on state interests, influenced by state policies, and amenable to negotiation. The other workshops identified many stakeholders and viewed the decision process as diffuse, with many opportunities for entry into the process. These latter groups were less certain about the chance for a successful negotiation. We concluded that if these assumptions and differences were not reconciled, the public involvement effort was not likely to succeed.

  5. A National Modeling Framework for Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bales, J. D.; Cline, D. W.; Pietrowsky, R.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), all Federal agencies with complementary water-resources activities, entered into an Interagency Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) "Collaborative Science Services and Tools to Support Integrated and Adaptive Water Resources Management" to collaborate in activities that are supportive to their respective missions. One of the interagency activities is the development of a highly integrated national water modeling framework and information services framework. Together these frameworks establish a common operating picture, improve modeling and synthesis, support the sharing of data and products among agencies, and provide a platform for incorporation of new scientific understanding. Each of the agencies has existing operational systems to assist in carrying out their respective missions. The systems generally are designed, developed, tested, fielded, and supported by specialized teams. A broader, shared approach is envisioned and would include community modeling, wherein multiple independent investigators or teams develop and contribute new modeling capabilities based on science advances; modern technology in coupling model components and visualizing results; and a coupled atmospheric - hydrologic model construct such that the framework could be used in real-time water-resources decision making or for long-term management decisions. The framework also is being developed to account for organizational structures of the three partners such that, for example, national data sets can move down to the regional scale, and vice versa. We envision the national water modeling framework to be an important element of North American Water Program, to contribute to goals of the Program, and to be informed by the science and approaches developed as a part of the Program.

  6. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni [Istituto di Econometria e CRANEC, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: giovanni.marseguerra@unicatt.it; Cortelezzi, Flavia [Dipartimento di Diritto ed Economia delle Persone e delle Imprese, Universita dell' Insubria (Italy)]. E-mail: flavia.cortelezzi@uninsubria.it; Dominioni, Armando [CORE-Catholique de Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)]. E-mail: dominioni@core.ucl.ac.be

    2006-08-15

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

  7. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three

  8. Model-Checking with Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Pierre; Siminiceanu, Radu I.

    2010-01-01

    We describe an algebra of Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams (EVMDDs) to encode arithmetic functions and its implementation in a model checking library along with state-of-the-art algorithms for building the transition relation and the state space of discrete state systems. We provide efficient algorithms for manipulating EVMDDs and give upper bounds of the theoretical time complexity of these algorithms for all basic arithmetic and relational operators. We also demonstrate that the time complexity of the generic recursive algorithm for applying a binary operator on EVMDDs is no worse than that of Multi-Terminal Decision Diagrams. We have implemented a new symbolic model checker with the intention to represent in one formalism the best techniques available at the moment across a spectrum of existing tools: EVMDDs for encoding arithmetic expressions, identity-reduced MDDs for representing the transition relation, and the saturation algorithm for reachability analysis. We compare our new symbolic model checking EVMDD library with the widely used CUDD package and show that, in many cases, our tool is several orders of magnitude faster than CUDD.

  9. Stakeholder participation in adaption to climate change - Lessons and experience from Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotter, Maja; Hoffmann, Esther; Hirschfeld, Jesko; Schroeder, Andre; Mohaupt, Fanziska; Schaefer, Laura [Institut fuer Oekologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IOEW) gGmbH, Berlin (Germany)

    2012-08-15

    Openness and cooperation is one major principle of the German Adaptation Strategy; the development and implementation of adaptation policies is hence accompanied by broad and diversified stakeholder participation processes. Mainly three German ministries have initiated and supported stakeholder participation: the Federal Ministry for the Environment that has the lead in developing adaptation policies, the Federal Ministry for Education and Research through funding two research programs on adaptation, and the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development through funding regional model projects. A review of these stakeholder integration processes shows that different degrees of participation were realised (communication, consultation, co-production and co-decision) and that both science-based and policy-based approaches were pursued. While science-based approaches aim at improving research results, policy-based approaches target at influencing political decision-making. A broad variety of actors have been involved and almost all 15 sectors mentioned in the German Adaptation Strategy have been covered. While topics such as agriculture or water have been broadly addressed, economic issues have been touched only by a minority of events. Researchers and representatives from administration have participated in almost all events whereas policy-makers, companies and civil society organizations were less represented. The report concludes with recommendations for planning and conducting stakeholder participation processes and suggests suitable designs depending on the pursued objectives.

  10. Decision model to control water losses in distribution networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcele Elisa Fontana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The losses in the urban water supply networks have become a growing concern. There are several alternatives for the quantification, detection and monitoring of water losses. However, in general, water companies have budgetary and other constraints that hinder implementation. Therefore, this paper presents a model to aid the selection of a subset of preventive maintenance actions to control water losses while accounting for the water companies’ restrictions. The model combines an additive multi-attribute value analysis by applying the SMARTER method to evaluate alternatives with Integer Linear Programming (ILP. The model shows to be efficient in order to achieve a portfolio of preventive maintenance actions, particularly when the decision maker considers that, there is a compensation for attribute evaluations.

  11. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-05

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  12. Changing stakeholder relationships in nature reserve management: a case study on Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve, Liaoning, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dan; Wang, Ziyan; Lassoie, James; Wang, Xiaoping; Sun, Lixin

    2014-12-15

    The number and total area of nature reserves in China has increased rapidly over the past couple of decades; however, the ability to effectively manage these reserves has not kept pace and conflicts between conservation efforts and economic development have emerged. The Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve (SILMNNR) currently is experiencing the challenges of balancing conservation with local community development. This paper uses components analysis of human ecosystems (HEC) to examine conflicts arising from the management of the nature reserve and uses a stakeholder analysis to identify and better understand stakeholder inter-relationships in the SILMNNR-HEC. The goal of this study is to identify critical factors influencing stakeholder relationships in order to find ways of relieving conflicts between the reserve management and development. The stakeholder analysis revealed that the key stakeholders in the SILMNNR-HEC are natural resources, the Liaoning SILMNNR Authority, local residents, and enterprise developers; however, there was unequal power among stakeholders in the decision making process affecting the nature reserve. The paper evaluated the conditions and processes of SILMNNR-HEC through a framework of stakeholder relationships where critical factors, such as policy, finance, technology, and labor, and their respective strengths and feedbacks among stakeholders, were assessed and showed unequal flows of power among stakeholders. Two approaches are provided for transforming the unbalanced relationships into a stable and sustainable framework to sustainably manage the nature reserve: the first is by changing stakeholder relationships from opposition to cooperation; and the second by enhancing feedbacks and dynamics among stakeholders. The analysis used in this paper can be used as a model to assess conflicts around other protected areas in China and elsewhere.

  13. Modeling violations of the race model inequality in bimodal paradigms: co-activation from decision and non-decision components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eZehetleitner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The redundant-signals paradigm (RSP is designed to investigate response behavior in perceptual tasks in which response-relevant targets are defined by either one or two features, or modalities. The common finding is that responses are speeded for redundantly compared to singly defined targets. This redundant-signals effect (RSE can be accounted for by race models if the response times do not violate the race model inequality (RMI. When there are violations of the RMI, race models are effectively excluded as a viable account of the RSE. The common alternative is provided by co-activation accounts, which assume that redundant target signals are integrated at some processing stage. However, ‘co-activation’ has mostly been only indirectly inferred and the accounts have only rarely been explicitly modeled; if they were modeled, the RSE has typically been assumed to have a decisional locus. Yet, there are also indications in the literature that the RSE might originate, at least in part, at a non-decisional or motor stage. In the present study, using a distribution analysis of sequential-sampling models (ex-Wald and Ratcliff Diffusion model, the locus of the RSE was investigated for two bimodal (audio-visual detection tasks that strongly violated the RMI, indicative of substantial co-activation. Three model variants assuming different loci of the RSE were fitted to the quantile reaction time proportions: a decision, a non-decision, and a combined variant both to vincentized group as well as individual data. The results suggest that for the two bimodal detection tasks, co-activation has a shared decisional and non-decisional locus. These findings point to the possibility that the mechanisms underlying the RSE depend on the specifics (task, stimulus, conditions, etc. of the experimental paradigm.

  14. Modeling violations of the race model inequality in bimodal paradigms: co-activation from decision and non-decision components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehetleitner, Michael; Ratko-Dehnert, Emil; Müller, Hermann J

    2015-01-01

    The redundant-signals paradigm (RSP) is designed to investigate response behavior in perceptual tasks in which response-relevant targets are defined by either one or two features, or modalities. The common finding is that responses are speeded for redundantly compared to singly defined targets. This redundant-signals effect (RSE) can be accounted for by race models if the response times do not violate the race model inequality (RMI). When there are violations of the RMI, race models are effectively excluded as a viable account of the RSE. The common alternative is provided by co-activation accounts, which assume that redundant target signals are integrated at some processing stage. However, "co-activation" has mostly been only indirectly inferred and the accounts have only rarely been explicitly modeled; if they were modeled, the RSE has typically been assumed to have a decisional locus. Yet, there are also indications in the literature that the RSE might originate, at least in part, at a non-decisional or motor stage. In the present study, using a distribution analysis of sequential-sampling models (ex-Wald and Ratcliff Diffusion model), the locus of the RSE was investigated for two bimodal (audio-visual) detection tasks that strongly violated the RMI, indicative of substantial co-activation. Three model variants assuming different loci of the RSE were fitted to the quantile reaction time proportions: a decision, a non-decision, and a combined variant both to vincentized group as well as individual data. The results suggest that for the two bimodal detection tasks, co-activation has a shared decisional and non-decisional locus. These findings point to the possibility that the mechanisms underlying the RSE depend on the specifics (task, stimulus, conditions, etc.) of the experimental paradigm.

  15. Multicriteria decision group model for the selection of suppliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Hazin Alencar

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Several authors have been studying group decision making over the years, which indicates how relevant it is. This paper presents a multicriteria group decision model based on ELECTRE IV and VIP Analysis methods, to those cases where there is great divergence among the decision makers. This model includes two stages. In the first, the ELECTRE IV method is applied and a collective criteria ranking is obtained. In the second, using criteria ranking, VIP Analysis is applied and the alternatives are selected. To illustrate the model, a numerical application in the context of the selection of suppliers in project management is used. The suppliers that form part of the project team have a crucial role in project management. They are involved in a network of connected activities that can jeopardize the success of the project, if they are not undertaken in an appropriate way. The question tackled is how to select service suppliers for a project on behalf of an enterprise that assists the multiple objectives of the decision-makers.Vários autores têm estudado decisão em grupo nos últimos anos, o que indica a relevância do assunto. Esse artigo apresenta um modelo multicritério de decisão em grupo baseado nos métodos ELECTRE IV e VIP Analysis, adequado aos casos em que se tem uma grande divergência entre os decisores. Esse modelo é composto por dois estágios. No primeiro, o método ELECTRE IV é aplicado e uma ordenação dos critérios é obtida. No próximo estágio, com a ordenação dos critérios, o método VIP Analysis é aplicado e as alternativas são selecionadas. Para ilustrar o modelo, uma aplicação numérica no contexto da seleção de fornecedores em projetos é realizada. Os fornecedores que fazem parte da equipe do projeto têm um papel fundamental no gerenciamento de projetos. Eles estão envolvidos em uma rede de atividades conectadas que, caso não sejam executadas de forma apropriada, podem colocar em risco o sucesso do

  16. Encapsulation of a Decision-Making Model to Optimize Supplier Selection via Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahul Hameed, Ruzanna; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Yong, Lee Choon; Ghazali, Azrul; Itam, Zarina; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Beddu, Salmia; Liyana Mohd Kamal, Nur

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to compare criteria/factor that influence the supplier selection. A mixed methods approach comprising qualitative and quantitative survey will be used. The study intend to identify and define the metrics that key stakeholders at Public Works Department (PWD) believed should be used for supplier. The outcomes would foresee the possible initiatives to bring procurement in PWD to a strategic level. The results will provide a deeper understanding of drivers for supplier’s selection in the construction industry. The obtained output will benefit many parties involved in the supplier selection decision-making. The findings provides useful information and greater understanding of the perceptions that PWD executives hold regarding supplier selection and the extent to which these perceptions are consistent with findings from prior studies. The findings from this paper can be utilized as input for policy makers to outline any changes in the current procurement code of practice in order to enhance the degree of transparency and integrity in decision-making.

  17. A generic concept for the development of model-guided clinical decision support systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denecke Kerstin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Disease development and progression are very complex processes which make clinical decision making non-trivial. On the one hand, examination results that are stored in multiple formats and data types in clinical information systems need to be considered. Beyond, biological or molecular-biological processes can influence clinical decision making. So far, biological knowledge and patient data is separated from each other. This complicates inclusion of all relevant knowledge and information into the decision making. In this paper, we describe a concept of model-based decision support that links knowledge about biological processes, treatment decisions and clinical data. It consists of three models: 1 a biological model, 2 a decision model encompassing medical knowledge about the treatment workflow and decision parameters, and 3 a patient data model generated from clinical data. Requirements and future steps for realizing the concept will be presented and it will be shown how the concept can support the clinical decision making.

  18. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  19. On Younger Stakeholders and Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tyszkiewicz, Bogumila; Labor, Bea

    2009-08-15

    In modern democratic countries, information sharing and effective and open communication concerning dismantling and decommissioning of of nuclear facilities as well as the management of nuclear waste are essential for the task to build the confidence required for any further development of nuclear energy. At the same time, it is often perceived that all decision making processes about nuclear energy policies are probably increasingly influenced by public opinion. Nuclear and radiation safety Authorities have a clear role in this regard to provide unbiased information on any health and safety related issues. In order to meet this need, it is necessary for Authorities and others to understand the values and opinions of the citizens, and especially the younger ones. They hold the key to the future at the same time as their perspective on these issues is the least understood. The need of greater public participation in decision making is becoming increasingly recognised the scientific as well as the political community. Many activities are carried out in order to stimulate to higher levels of public involvement in decision making in this active research area. Younger citizens is a stakeholder group that is often excluded in decision- making processes. The existence of large gaps between the involvement of older and younger stakeholders in decision making processes needs to be addressed, since such imbalances might otherwise lead to unequal opportunities between generations and limit the future consumption level of the coming generations. Another demanding task for the present generation is to assure that appropriate financial resources are injected into the Swedish Nuclear Waste Fund. It will thereby be possible for coming generations to undertake efficient measures in the decommissioning and dismantling of older nuclear facilities. To undertake such measures in line with the environmental and health codex is essential. An appropriate balance in this regard must be

  20. Stakeholder versus Shareholder Satisfaction in Corporate Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    be explained by company characteristics normally identified in the literature as being decisive for hedging behaviour such as firm size, leverage, and export ratio. Rather, the study finds a unique relationship between the managerial focus on stakeholders and a conservative risk management strategy......Inherent in corporate governance is the conflict between satisfying stakeholders in general versus satisfying shareholders in particular. This empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds that companies which state that their aim is to satisfy stakeholders in general ("stakeholder...... satisfaction companies") pursue a more extensive hedging strategy of exposures to changes in exchange rates than companies which state that their aim is to satisfy shareholders in particular ("shareholder satisfaction companies"). The extensive hedging strategy of stakeholder satisfaction companies cannot...

  1. An Evaluation of the Decision-Making Capacity Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémault-Phillips, Suzette C.; Parmar, Jasneet; Friesen, Steven; Rogers, Laura G.; Pike, Ashley; Sluggett, Bryan

    2016-01-01

    Background The Decision-Making Capacity Assessment (DMCA) Model includes a best-practice process and tools to assess DMCA, and implementation strategies at the organizational and assessor levels to support provision of DMCAs across the care continuum. A Developmental Evaluation of the DMCA Model was conducted. Methods A mixed methods approach was used. Survey (N = 126) and focus group (N = 49) data were collected from practitioners utilizing the Model. Results Strengths of the Model include its best-practice and implementation approach, applicability to independent practitioners and inter-professional teams, focus on training/mentoring to enhance knowledge/skills, and provision of tools/processes. Post-training, participants agreed that they followed the Model’s guiding principles (90%), used problem-solving (92%), understood discipline-specific roles (87%), were confident in their knowledge of DMCAs (75%) and pertinent legislation (72%), accessed consultative services (88%), and received management support (64%). Model implementation is impeded when role clarity, physician engagement, inter-professional buy-in, accountability, dedicated resources, information sharing systems, and remuneration are lacking. Dedicated resources, job descriptions inclusive of DMCAs, ongoing education/mentoring supports, access to consultative services, and appropriate remuneration would support implementation. Conclusions The DMCA Model offers practitioners, inter-professional teams, and organizations a best-practice and implementation approach to DMCAs. Addressing barriers and further contextualizing the Model would be warranted. PMID:27729947

  2. Implementation of Dynamic Smart Decision Model for Vertical Handoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahni, Nidhi

    2010-11-01

    International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT Advanced), better known as 4G is the next level of evolution in the field of wireless communications. 4G Wireless networks enable users to access information anywhere, anytime, with a seamless connection to a wide range of information and services, and receiving a large volume of information, data, pictures, video and thus increasing the demand for High Bandwidth and Signal Strength. The mobility among various networks is achieved through Vertical Handoff. Vertical handoffs refer to the automatic failover from one technology to another in order to maintain communication. The heterogeneous co-existence of access technologies with largely different characteristics creates a decision problem of determining the "best" available network at "best" time for handoff. In this paper, we implemented the proposed Dynamic and Smart Decision model to decide the "best" network interface and "best" time moment to handoff. The proposed model implementation not only demonstrates the individual user needs but also improve the whole system performance i.e. Quality of Service by reducing the unnecessary handoffs and maintain mobility.

  3. Analysis of Interactions of Key Stakeholders on B2C e-Markets - Agent Based Modelling and Simulation Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aleksandar Marković; Sava Čavoški; Andrej Novović

    2016-01-01

    Background/purpose: This paper discusses the application of ABMS - agent-based modelling and simulation in the analysis of customer behaviour on B2C e-commerce websites as well as in the analysis of various business...

  4. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  5. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  6. A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertainties...

  7. Prediction model based on decision tree analysis for laccase mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Fabiola; Aguila, Sergio; Baratto, Maria Camilla; Martorana, Andrea; Basosi, Riccardo; Alderete, Joel B; Vazquez-Duhalt, Rafael

    2013-01-10

    A Structure Activity Relationship (SAR) study for laccase mediator systems was performed in order to correctly classify different natural phenolic mediators. Decision tree (DT) classification models with a set of five quantum-chemical calculated molecular descriptors were used. These descriptors included redox potential (ɛ°), ionization energy (E(i)), pK(a), enthalpy of formation of radical (Δ(f)H), and OH bond dissociation energy (D(O-H)). The rationale for selecting these descriptors is derived from the laccase-mediator mechanism. To validate the DT predictions, the kinetic constants of different compounds as laccase substrates, their ability for pesticide transformation as laccase-mediators, and radical stability were experimentally determined using Coriolopsis gallica laccase and the pesticide dichlorophen. The prediction capability of the DT model based on three proposed descriptors showed a complete agreement with the obtained experimental results. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  9. Modeling the green building (GB) investment decisions of developers and end-users with transaction costs (TCs) considerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qian, Q.K.; Chan, E.H.W.; Visscher , H.J.; Lehmann, S.

    2015-01-01

    The paper, through a “regenerative” lens, has focused upon a new conceptual game system involving transaction costs (TCs) for creating a more accessible green buildings (GB) market. Individual stakeholders steadfastly guard their own interests in any investment decision, which seldom considers any p

  10. Decoding Problem Gamblers' Signals: A Decision Model for Casino Enterprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifrim, Sandra

    2015-12-01

    The aim of the present study is to offer a validated decision model for casino enterprises. The model enables those users to perform early detection of problem gamblers and fulfill their ethical duty of social cost minimization. To this end, the interpretation of casino customers' nonverbal communication is understood as a signal-processing problem. Indicators of problem gambling recommended by Delfabbro et al. (Identifying problem gamblers in gambling venues: final report, 2007) are combined with Viterbi algorithm into an interdisciplinary model that helps decoding signals emitted by casino customers. Model output consists of a historical path of mental states and cumulated social costs associated with a particular client. Groups of problem and non-problem gamblers were simulated to investigate the model's diagnostic capability and its cost minimization ability. Each group consisted of 26 subjects and was subsequently enlarged to 100 subjects. In approximately 95% of the cases, mental states were correctly decoded for problem gamblers. Statistical analysis using planned contrasts revealed that the model is relatively robust to the suppression of signals performed by casino clientele facing gambling problems as well as to misjudgments made by staff regarding the clients' mental states. Only if the last mentioned source of error occurs in a very pronounced manner, i.e. judgment is extremely faulty, cumulated social costs might be distorted.

  11. Stakeholder Engagement: Achieving Sustainability in the Construction Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Damian Fearon; Edward Ochieng; Menoka Bal; David Bryde

    2013-01-01

    Achieving sustainability-related targets in construction projects is increasingly becoming a key performance driver. Yet sustainability is a complex concept in projects and there are many diverse stakeholders. Some stakeholders are generally recognized as important, i.e., the client and main contractor, yet there are others not always perceived as such and whose absence from the decision-making processes may result in a failure to address sustainability issues. Hence there is a need for a sys...

  12. Stakeholder Relations Office

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Scientists, politicians, the public, school children, our neighbours, you. All of these groups of people have a stake in CERN, and all are important to us.   The list of stakeholders in an organisation as large and complex as CERN is a long and ever lengthening one. Each group has its own specific interests and needs in terms of what kind of information it requires from CERN and how we should engage. It’s important, therefore, for us to ensure that we’re communicating optimally with everyone we care about and who cares about us. This is something that CERN has always taken seriously. The CERN Courier, for example, was first published in 1959 and we had a pro-active public information office right from the start. Today, our stakeholder relations are spread between several groups and teams, reflecting the nature of CERN today. But while we’re already doing a good job, I think we can do better by exploiting the synergies between these teams, and that’s wh...

  13. Region specific challenges of a CO2 pipeline infrastructure in the West Mediterranean area. Model results versus stakeholder views

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, M.A.; Mesquita, P.; Carneiro, J.; Silva, J.; Berghout, N.A.; Ramirez, C.A.; Gouveia, J.; Seixas, J.; Cabal, H.; Martinez, R.; Rimi, A.; Zarhloule, Y.; Sardinha, M.; Boavida, D.; Tosato, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents results of potential CCS infrastructures in the West Mediterranean region including trajectories for CO2 pipelines. The preliminary results are generated with a combination of geographical (GIS) and partial equilibrium optimization modelling (MARKAL/TIMES-COMET). Furthermore, as

  14. Community stakeholder responses to advocacy advertising

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, B.; Sinclair, J. [Elon University, Elon, NC (United States). School Community

    2009-07-01

    Focus group research was used to examine how community stakeholders, a group with local industry experience, responded to coal industry advocacy messages. The stakeholders expressed beliefs about both the advertiser and the coal industry, and while their knowledge led to critical consideration of the industry campaign, they also expressed a desire to identify with positive messages about their community. Applying a postpositivist research perspective, a new model is introduced to integrate these beliefs in terms of advertiser trust and industry accountability under the existing theoretical framework of persuasion knowledge. Agent and topic knowledge are combined in this model based on responses to the industry advocacy campaign. In doing so, this study integrates a priori theory within a new context, extending the current theoretical framework to include an understanding of how community stakeholders - a common target for marketplace advocacy - interpret industry messages.

  15. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marandi, Ramtin Zargari; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  16. Perceptual decision making: Drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian eBitzer

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analysed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence towards a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses.

  17. Introducing Complex Decision Models to the Decision Maker with Computer Software - The Profile Distance Method (PDM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernroider

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we demonstrate how the profile distance method was transformed into a software environment enabling the decision maker to utilize a complex decision making tool without any advanced knowledge of the underlying mathematical and technical features. We present theoretical and technical aspects as well as contextual and usage related information from the viewpoint of the decision maker. Preliminary empirical results suggest that the developed software component is effective in terms of platform independence, usability and intuitive interface design. The data showed a good rating for usefulness, which, however, was targeted as the main goal for further development.

  18. Impact of Stakeholder Psychological Empowerment on Project Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herry Pintardi Chandra

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between psychological empowerment of stakeholders and project success is an important thing that must be known by project manager. This research developed and tested the model to predict how well the impact of stakeholder psychological empowerment on project success. Stakeholder psychological empowerment was defined to have five indicator variables covering intrinsic motivation, opportunity to perform, ability to perform, task behaviors, and contextual behaviors. Meanwhile, project success can be measured by cost performance, time performance, quality performance, profitability, and customer satisfaction. In this study, it was hypothesized that stakeholder psychological empowerment influenced project success. Based on the data obtained from a questionnaire survey carried out to 204 respondents, structural equation modeling (SEM was used for predicting the performance of project success. It was found that stakeholder psychological empowerment influenced project success, especially on the ability to perform of stakeholders.

  19. Survey of stakeholders and responsibilities in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Peter; Tambo, Torben

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to reveal important stakeholders for the Power-2-Electrolysers (P2E) –project, by determining the stakeholders in the Danish electricity industry with an impact on the hydrogen industry. The research has been conducted using a self-constructed model...... for determination of relevant stakeholders, based on their technological – and commercial influence on the project. The approach of determining stakeholders by using the self-constructed model has been based on a literature review performed on the Hydrogen industry and its cooperation with the Electricity industry...... and on qualitative interviews performed with members of the P2E-project. The research revealed which stakeholders that were affected and could affect the P2E-project both as complementor and competitors from a technological - and commercial point-of-view. However, the stakeholders that made the largest impact...

  20. A classification of the multiple criteria decision making models

    OpenAIRE

    Guerras Martín, Luis Angel

    1987-01-01

    In this work we have tried to present a classification of multiobjective techniques based in the relationship between the main subJects of decision process: analyst and decision maker. These relation, in terms of information flows, have important consequences for decision making processes in business organizations.

  1. Stakeholder Engagement: Achieving Sustainability in the Construction Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damian Fearon

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Achieving sustainability-related targets in construction projects is increasingly becoming a key performance driver. Yet sustainability is a complex concept in projects and there are many diverse stakeholders. Some stakeholders are generally recognized as important, i.e., the client and main contractor, yet there are others not always perceived as such and whose absence from the decision-making processes may result in a failure to address sustainability issues. Hence there is a need for a systematic approach to engage with stakeholders with high salience in relation to sustainability. This paper reports the results of an exploratory study involving interviews with construction project practitioners that are involved in sustainability in some way. Data were collected from the practitioners in terms of the processes for engaging with stakeholders to deliver sustainability. The data suggests six steps to a stakeholder engagement process: (i identification; (ii relating stakeholders to different sustainability-related targets; (iii prioritization; (iv managing; (v measuring performance; and (vi putting targets into action. The results suggest that understanding the different sustainability agendas of stakeholders and measuring their performance using key performance indicators are important stages to be emphasized in any stakeholder engagement process to achieve sustainability-related goals.

  2. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  3. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  4. Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

    2014-05-01

    To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

  5. A Markov decision model for determining optimal outpatient scheduling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Jonathan

    2012-06-01

    Managing an efficient outpatient clinic can often be complicated by significant no-show rates and escalating appointment lead times. One method that has been proposed for avoiding the wasted capacity due to no-shows is called open or advanced access. The essence of open access is "do today's demand today". We develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model that demonstrates that a short booking window does significantly better than open access. We analyze a number of scenarios that explore the trade-off between patient-related measures (lead times) and physician- or system-related measures (revenue, overtime and idle time). Through simulation, we demonstrate that, over a wide variety of potential scenarios and clinics, the MDP policy does as well or better than open access in terms of minimizing costs (or maximizing profits) as well as providing more consistent throughput.

  6. Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

    2007-07-01

    We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

  7. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  8. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  9. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  10. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A Reinforcement Learning Model of Precommitment in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeb eKurth-Nelson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Addiction and many other disorders are linked to impulsivity, where a suboptimal choice is preferred when it is immediately available. One solution to impulsivity is precommitment: constraining one's future to avoid being offered a suboptimal choice. A form of impulsivity can be measured experimentally by offering a choice between a smaller reward delivered sooner and a larger reward delivered later. Impulsive subjects are more likely to select the smaller-sooner choice; however, when offered an option to precommit, even impulsive subjects can precommit to the larger-later choice. To precommit or not is a decision between two conditions: (A the original choice (smaller-sooner vs. larger-later, and (B a new condition with only larger-later available. It has been observed that precommitment appears as a consequence of the preference reversal inherent in non-exponential delay-discounting. Here we show that most models of hyperbolic discounting cannot precommit, but a distributed model of hyperbolic discounting does precommit. Using this model, we find (1 faster discounters may be more or less likely than slow discounters to precommit, depending on the precommitment delay, (2 for a constant smaller-sooner versus larger-later preference, a higher ratio of larger reward to smaller reward increases the probability of precommitment, and (3 precommitment is highly sensitive to the shape of the discount curve. These predictions imply that manipulations that alter the discount curve, such as diet or context, may qualitatively affect precommitment.

  12. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  13. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    2011-01-01

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a m

  14. A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael. Bevers

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

  15. Brain networks for exploration decisions utilizing distinct modeled information types during contextual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jane X; Voss, Joel L

    2014-06-04

    Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types.

  16. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  17. Developing and Transitioning Numerical Air Quality Models to Improve Air Quality and Public Health Decision-Making in El Salvador and Costa Rica As Part of the Servir Applied Sciences Team

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Huff, A. K.; Gomori, S. G.; Sadoff, N.

    2014-12-01

    In order to enhance the capacity for air quality modeling and improve air quality monitoring and management in the SERVIR Mesoamerica region, members of SERVIR's Applied Sciences Team (AST) are developing national numerical air quality models for El Salvador and Costa Rica. We are working with stakeholders from the El Salvador Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARN); National University of Costa Rica (UNA); the Costa Rica Ministry of the Environment, Energy, and Telecommunications (MINAET); and Costa Rica National Meteorological Institute (IMN), who are leaders in air quality monitoring and management in the Mesoamerica region. Focusing initially on these institutions will build sustainability in regional modeling activities by developing air quality modeling capability that can be shared with other countries in Mesoamerica. The air quality models are based on the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and incorporate meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, as well as national emissions inventories from El Salvador and Costa Rica. The models are being optimized for urban air quality, which is a priority of decision-makers in Mesoamerica. Once experimental versions of the modeling systems are complete, they will be transitioned to servers run by stakeholders in El Salvador and Costa Rica. The numerical air quality models will provide decision support for stakeholders to identify 1) high-priority areas for expanding national ambient air monitoring networks, 2) needed revisions to national air quality regulations, and 3) gaps in national emissions inventories. This project illustrates SERVIR's goal of the transition of science to support decision-making through capacity building in Mesoamerica, and it aligns with the Group on Earth Observations' health societal benefit theme. This presentation will describe technical aspects of the development of the models and outline key steps in our successful

  18. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  19. Constraints to microbial food safety policy: opinions from stakeholder groups along the farm to fork continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, J M; Ramsingh, B; Wilkins, A; Travis, R G; Gavrus, D; Snelgrove, J W

    2007-01-01

    This exploratory qualitative study was conducted to identify constraints to microbial food safety policy in Canada and the USA from the perspective of stakeholder groups along the farm to fork continuum. Thirty-seven stakeholders participated in interviews or a focus group where semi-structured questions were used to facilitate discussion about constraints to policy development and implementation. An emergent grounded theory approach was used to determine themes and concepts that arose from the data (versus fitting the data to a hypothesis or a priori classification). Despite the plurality of stakeholders and the range of content expertise, participant perceptions emerged into five common themes, although, there were often disagreements as to the positive or negative attributes of specific concepts. The five themes included challenges related to measurement and objectives of microbial food safety policy goals, challenges arising from lack of knowledge, or problems with communication of knowledge coupled with current practices, beliefs and traditions; the complexity of the food system and the plurality of stakeholders; the economics of producing safe food and the limited resources to address the problem; and, issues related to decision-making and policy, including ownership of the problem and inappropriate inputs to the decision-making process. Responsibilities for food safety and for food policy failure were attributed to all stakeholders along the farm to fork continuum. While challenges regarding the biology of food safety were identified as constraints, a broader range of policy inputs encompassing social, economic and political considerations were also highlighted as critical to the development and implementation of effective food safety policy. Strategies to address these other inputs may require new, transdisciplinary approaches as an adjunct to the traditional science-based risk assessment model.

  20. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.